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arxiv:2509.18994

An update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecast model AIFS

Published on Sep 23, 2025
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Abstract

ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single has been enhanced with physical consistency constraints, updated training methods, and additional variables, leading to improved precipitation forecasts and operational deployment since February 2025.

AI-generated summary

We present an update to ECMWF's machine-learned weather forecasting model AIFS Single with several key improvements. The model now incorporates physical consistency constraints through bounding layers, an updated training schedule, and an expanded set of variables. The physical constraints substantially improve precipitation forecasts and the new variables show a high level of skill. Upper-air headline scores also show improvement over the previous AIFS version. The AIFS has been fully operational at ECMWF since the 25th of February 2025.

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