Trustworthy Visual Predicates for Robust Manipulation Understanding under Degradation

Manipulation understanding requires reliable relational evidence, such as contact, support, containment, motion coupling, grasp, release, and active-hand involvement. Although these visual predicates are widely used in event-chain, graph-based, and neuro-symbolic models, their reliability under visual degradation is rarely analyzed directly. This paper introduces a predicate-level reliability framework for robust manipulation understanding under blur, occlusion, illumination change, low resolution, frame dropping, and detection noise. The framework defines a structured predicate vocabulary, confidence-aware predicate estimation, and reliability metrics for predicate preservation, degradation sensitivity, temporal consistency, confidence-weighted stability, and downstream impact. Experiments on controlled manipulation videos and public egocentric or bimanual datasets, including VISOR/EPIC-KITCHENS, H2O, and ARCTIC, show that predicate failures are structured rather than uniform. Static spatial predicates remain comparatively robust, whereas contact-sensitive, dynamic, and derived predicates such as grasp and release are more fragile. Under severe degradation, detection noise, occlusion, and frame dropping cause the strongest reliability losses. Downstream analysis shows that degraded predicates reduce manipulation-understanding accuracy from 0.89 to 0.58, while removing confidence weighting under moderate degradation reduces accuracy from 0.74 to 0.64. These results show that predicate reliability provides a diagnostic layer between visual perception and structured manipulation reasoning.