Do Satellites See Commuters? A Critical Benchmark of Vision Foundation Models

Satellite foundation models offer a globally available alternative to census data for commuting origin-destination (OD) generation, yet no study has systematically compared encoder paradigms within a single downstream pipeline. We ablate four satellite vision encoders: language-supervised (RemoteCLIP), self-supervised (DINOv3), and geographically grounded (SatCLIP, AlphaEarth) within an identical WeDAN graph diffusion framework across 1,925 US counties, 325 UK districts, and 14 global cities under five random seeds. Three main findings emerge. First, language-supervised features achieve the strongest in-distribution performance (RemoteCLIP CPC 0.602), while geographically grounded encoders transfer more reliably zero-shot: AlphaEarth improves CPC by 33% over RemoteCLIP on UK districts. Second, pretraining corpus scale alone is insufficient: DINOv3, trained on a substantially larger satellite corpus, underperforms RemoteCLIP by 0.091 CPC in-distribution and collapses to CPC 0.022 globally. Third, no encoder transfers usefully to global cities (best CPC 0.122 for RemoteCLIP, 0.022 for DINOv3), confirming cross-continental OD generation remains an open problem. We additionally clarify the semantics of the census noise parameter η, whose ordering reverses under cross-continental evaluation, a distinction critical to correctly interpreting prior results. Training scripts and evaluation logs will be released.