Video-HopChain: Multi-Hop Questions and Confidence-Gated Exploration for Video Reasoning Models

HopChain has shown on still images that multi-hop data synthesis improves vision-language reasoning, because long chain-of-thought reasoning exposes errors that compound across steps, while most data used for reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) rarely demands a chain of visual evidence, so these weaknesses are likely to stay unexposed. We observe the same problem in video, where this framework has not yet been explored. We therefore build Video-HopChain, a dataset of 22,550 multi-hop video questions over 13,378 videos, together with a held-out benchmark of 1,000 questions. Each question chains three to six yes/no questions about moments in one video, and each yields one of two integers depending on its answer. The final answer is the sum of these integers, so an exact match on that sum gives the verifiable reward that RLVR needs. We first train Qwen3-VL-8B with GRPO on a standard video dataset, and a second stage on Video-HopChain then raises the mean over eight video understanding and reasoning benchmarks from 55.4 to 57.9 and improves every one of them. Training on such a dataset, however, exposes a known limitation of GRPO: its learning signal comes from the reward variance within a group, so hard questions whose rollouts are all incorrect and easy questions whose rollouts are all correct both leave the group with no gradient. To recover these groups at the same compute budget, we introduce Confidence-Gated Exploration (CGE). With 8 rollouts per question, CGE samples the first 4 as usual. If these 4 are either all correct or all incorrect, it samples the last 4 with the policy's most confident token masked inside the reasoning span, and removes the masked positions from the loss while all 8 rollouts enter the advantage. With CGE, the mean rises further to 59.3. We release the dataset, the checkpoint, and the data generation and training code.