How Divergence Becomes Decision Flips in Compressed Language Models

Compression reports summarize how far a compressed language model moved from the dense one, usually by a KL divergence; a deployment that relies on the dense model's outputs needs to know how many of its decisions changed. We show that total variation, not KL, answers this directly. Across 802 compressed and perturbed copies of 19 open models on five corpora and nine mechanically unrelated perturbation families, the rate at which the arg-max token changes (the flip rate) tracks total variation at a ratio with median 1.05, with no fitted constant. KL converts into flips only through its square root and a factor that varies fourfold across models and corpora, because KL averages over tokens before the root is taken; first-order statistics averaged per token, such as Hellinger distance, avoid this, but reports rarely give them. As a result, of two compressors reported on different models and corpora whose flip rates differ by at least 10%, KL assigns the smaller divergence to the one that changes more decisions in 11% of cases, total variation in 1%. Two pre-registered tests mark the limits: on a held-out code corpus the ratio held for all eight models while three predictions about KL each failed for half of them or more, and on three new models with real kernels it stayed in its band for 37 of 38 checkpoints but fell below one on code for two models. In vLLM speculative decoding, total variation measured under teacher forcing predicts greedy draft acceptance with a mean relative error of 1.1--2.4%, without the task-specific calibration that KL needs.