ProbePO: Sparse Probes, Redistributed Credit for Critic-Free LLM Reinforcement Learning

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards assigns one terminal reward to an entire reasoning trajectory, obscuring how individual reasoning steps contributed to the outcome. GRPO broadcasts a group-normalized advantage to every response token, while finer-grained approaches often rely on dense auxiliary rollouts or branching schemes that can also alter the data used for policy updates. We cast the missing middle as budgeted measurement: with a limited rollout budget, which partial solutions should be evaluated, and how should their value estimates refine credit? ProbePO selects partial-solution states with a reward-free uncertainty score and estimates their expected verifier rewards under a capped continuation budget. ProbePO redistributes, rather than replaces, GRPO's trajectory-level advantage across tokens while preserving each trajectory's mean token-level advantage; probe continuations serve only as measurements. Across three DeepSeekMath and Qwen-family models spanning 1.5B-7B parameters, ProbePO consistently outperforms GRPO and achieves the highest accuracy among the four evaluated methods in 16 of 18 model-benchmark comparisons. Against dense-probing VinePPO on DeepSeekMath-7B, ProbePO achieves higher accuracy on all six benchmarks with 76% less end-to-end training time.