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Upload batch 5 to staging for candidate 5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0 (crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual)

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  1. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2075.log +77 -0
  2. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2076.log +77 -0
  3. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2077.log +77 -0
  4. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2078.log +77 -0
  5. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2079.log +77 -0
  6. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2080.log +78 -0
  7. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2081.log +77 -0
  8. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2082.log +77 -0
  9. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2083.log +77 -0
  10. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2084.log +77 -0
  11. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2085.log +77 -0
  12. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2086.log +77 -0
  13. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2087.log +77 -0
  14. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2088.log +77 -0
  15. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2089.log +77 -0
  16. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2090.log +78 -0
  17. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2091.log +77 -0
  18. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2092.log +77 -0
  19. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2093.log +76 -0
  20. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2094.log +77 -0
  21. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2095.log +77 -0
  22. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2096.log +77 -0
  23. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2097.log +77 -0
  24. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2098.log +77 -0
  25. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2099.log +77 -0
  26. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2100.log +79 -0
  27. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json +1301 -0
  28. staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/support_augmentation_report.json +0 -0
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2075.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2075-2075
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2075-2075
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2075/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2075: 424.7M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.20 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2075] Income guard baseline: $162833.0B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2075] SS baseline: $25190.8B, target: $13561.0B
67
+ [DEBUG 2075] Payroll cap: $969,300
68
+ [DEBUG 2075] Payroll baseline: $76303.0B, target: $72131.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2075] OASDI TOB baseline: $1497.2B, target: $815.1B
70
+ [DEBUG 2075] HI TOB baseline: $844.8B, target: $688.2B
71
+ [DEBUG 2075] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2075] SS achieved: $13561.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2075] Payroll achieved: $72131.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2075] OASDI TOB achieved: $815.1B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2075] HI TOB achieved: $688.2B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2075.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2075 424.7M $59192.8B $37220.8B 48.94GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2076.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2076-2076
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2076-2076
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2076/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2076: 426.1M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
38
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
39
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
40
+ Successful target clones: 1190
41
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
42
+
43
+ ======================================================================
44
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
45
+ ======================================================================
46
+
47
+ Loaded 42,504 households
48
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
49
+
50
+ ======================================================================
51
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
52
+ ======================================================================
53
+
54
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
55
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
56
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
57
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
58
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
59
+
60
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
61
+
62
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
63
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
64
+ [DEBUG 2076] Income guard baseline: $169672.0B across 2 groups
65
+ [DEBUG 2076] SS baseline: $26532.7B, target: $14111.1B
66
+ [DEBUG 2076] Payroll cap: $1,002,300
67
+ [DEBUG 2076] Payroll baseline: $79077.6B, target: $74862.0B
68
+ [DEBUG 2076] OASDI TOB baseline: $1589.0B, target: $853.4B
69
+ [DEBUG 2076] HI TOB baseline: $891.4B, target: $717.0B
70
+ [DEBUG 2076] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
71
+ [DEBUG 2076] SS achieved: $14111.1B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
72
+ [DEBUG 2076] Payroll achieved: $74862.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2076] OASDI TOB achieved: $853.4B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2076] HI TOB achieved: $717.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
75
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
76
+ Saved 2076.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2076 426.1M $61223.4B $38709.8B 48.95GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2077.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2077-2077
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2077-2077
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2077/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2077: 427.4M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2077] Income guard baseline: $176805.4B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2077] SS baseline: $27946.0B, target: $14679.9B
67
+ [DEBUG 2077] Payroll cap: $1,036,500
68
+ [DEBUG 2077] Payroll baseline: $81954.2B, target: $77698.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2077] OASDI TOB baseline: $1685.6B, target: $885.8B
70
+ [DEBUG 2077] HI TOB baseline: $940.2B, target: $746.8B
71
+ [DEBUG 2077] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2077] SS achieved: $14679.9B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2077] Payroll achieved: $77698.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2077] OASDI TOB achieved: $885.8B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2077] HI TOB achieved: $746.8B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2077.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2077 427.4M $63005.8B $40256.0B 48.94GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2078.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2078-2078
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2078-2078
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2078/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2078: 428.8M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.17 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2078] Income guard baseline: $184246.0B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2078] SS baseline: $29434.6B, target: $15264.6B
67
+ [DEBUG 2078] Payroll cap: $1,071,600
68
+ [DEBUG 2078] Payroll baseline: $84931.4B, target: $80650.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2078] OASDI TOB baseline: $1787.5B, target: $919.4B
70
+ [DEBUG 2078] HI TOB baseline: $991.5B, target: $777.2B
71
+ [DEBUG 2078] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2078] SS achieved: $15264.6B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2078] Payroll achieved: $80650.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2078] OASDI TOB achieved: $919.4B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2078] HI TOB achieved: $777.2B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2078.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2078 428.8M $65617.1B $41866.6B 48.92GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2079.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2079-2079
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2079-2079
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2079/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2079: 430.1M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2079] Income guard baseline: $192007.5B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2079] SS baseline: $31002.5B, target: $15861.4B
67
+ [DEBUG 2079] Payroll cap: $1,107,900
68
+ [DEBUG 2079] Payroll baseline: $88016.9B, target: $83727.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2079] OASDI TOB baseline: $1894.9B, target: $962.9B
70
+ [DEBUG 2079] HI TOB baseline: $1045.5B, target: $808.5B
71
+ [DEBUG 2079] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2079] SS achieved: $15861.4B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2079] Payroll achieved: $83727.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2079] OASDI TOB achieved: $962.9B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2079] HI TOB achieved: $808.5B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2079.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2079 430.1M $69839.2B $43540.6B 48.95GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2080.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2080-2080
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2080-2080
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2080/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2080: 431.5M
33
+ 2080: 431.5M
34
+
35
+ ======================================================================
36
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
37
+ ======================================================================
38
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
39
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
40
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
41
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
42
+ Successful target clones: 1190
43
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
44
+
45
+ ======================================================================
46
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
47
+ ======================================================================
48
+
49
+ Loaded 42,504 households
50
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
51
+
52
+ ======================================================================
53
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
54
+ ======================================================================
55
+
56
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
57
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
58
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
59
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
60
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
61
+
62
+ Initial memory usage: 3.22 GB
63
+
64
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
65
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
66
+ [DEBUG 2080] Income guard baseline: $200104.0B across 2 groups
67
+ [DEBUG 2080] SS baseline: $32653.9B, target: $16478.3B
68
+ [DEBUG 2080] Payroll cap: $1,145,700
69
+ [DEBUG 2080] Payroll baseline: $91218.7B, target: $86933.0B
70
+ [DEBUG 2080] OASDI TOB baseline: $2010.0B, target: $999.7B
71
+ [DEBUG 2080] HI TOB baseline: $1101.6B, target: $840.8B
72
+ [DEBUG 2080] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
73
+ [DEBUG 2080] SS achieved: $16478.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2080] Payroll achieved: $86933.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2080] OASDI TOB achieved: $999.7B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ [DEBUG 2080] HI TOB achieved: $840.8B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
77
+ Saved 2080.h5 and metadata
78
+ 2080 431.5M $72576.6B $45284.7B 48.94GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2081.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2081-2081
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2081-2081
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2081/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2081: 432.8M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2081] Income guard baseline: $208550.4B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2081] SS baseline: $34393.3B, target: $17111.6B
67
+ [DEBUG 2081] Payroll cap: $1,184,700
68
+ [DEBUG 2081] Payroll baseline: $94535.3B, target: $90268.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2081] OASDI TOB baseline: $2131.1B, target: $1038.1B
70
+ [DEBUG 2081] HI TOB baseline: $1160.3B, target: $873.9B
71
+ [DEBUG 2081] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2081] SS achieved: $17111.6B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2081] Payroll achieved: $90268.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2081] OASDI TOB achieved: $1038.1B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2081] HI TOB achieved: $873.9B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2081.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2081 432.8M $75792.2B $47097.5B 48.93GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2082.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2082-2082
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2082-2082
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2082/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2082: 434.1M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2082] Income guard baseline: $217362.0B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2082] SS baseline: $36225.3B, target: $17766.2B
67
+ [DEBUG 2082] Payroll cap: $1,224,900
68
+ [DEBUG 2082] Payroll baseline: $97970.0B, target: $93749.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2082] OASDI TOB baseline: $2258.9B, target: $1078.1B
70
+ [DEBUG 2082] HI TOB baseline: $1221.8B, target: $908.0B
71
+ [DEBUG 2082] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2082] SS achieved: $17766.2B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2082] Payroll achieved: $93749.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2082] OASDI TOB achieved: $1078.1B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2082] HI TOB achieved: $908.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2082.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2082 434.1M $78722.6B $48985.7B 48.94GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2083.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2083-2083
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2083-2083
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2083/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2083: 435.4M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.16 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2083] Income guard baseline: $226555.1B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2083] SS baseline: $38154.9B, target: $18438.0B
67
+ [DEBUG 2083] Payroll cap: $1,266,600
68
+ [DEBUG 2083] Payroll baseline: $101531.5B, target: $97381.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2083] OASDI TOB baseline: $2394.3B, target: $1119.9B
70
+ [DEBUG 2083] HI TOB baseline: $1285.7B, target: $943.1B
71
+ [DEBUG 2083] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2083] SS achieved: $18438.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2083] Payroll achieved: $97381.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2083] OASDI TOB achieved: $1119.9B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2083] HI TOB achieved: $943.1B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2083.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2083 435.4M $80574.9B $50949.2B 48.91GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2084.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2084-2084
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2084-2084
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2084/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2084: 436.6M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.15 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2084] Income guard baseline: $236146.5B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2084] SS baseline: $40187.3B, target: $19128.1B
67
+ [DEBUG 2084] Payroll cap: $1,309,800
68
+ [DEBUG 2084] Payroll baseline: $105223.9B, target: $101163.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2084] OASDI TOB baseline: $2538.0B, target: $1163.4B
70
+ [DEBUG 2084] HI TOB baseline: $1351.6B, target: $979.0B
71
+ [DEBUG 2084] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2084] SS achieved: $19128.1B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2084] Payroll achieved: $101163.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2084] OASDI TOB achieved: $1163.4B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2084] HI TOB achieved: $979.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2084.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2084 436.6M $84713.9B $52991.8B 48.93GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2085.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2085-2085
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2085-2085
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2085/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2085: 437.9M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
38
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
39
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
40
+ Successful target clones: 1190
41
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
42
+
43
+ ======================================================================
44
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
45
+ ======================================================================
46
+
47
+ Loaded 42,504 households
48
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
49
+
50
+ ======================================================================
51
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
52
+ ======================================================================
53
+
54
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
55
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
56
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
57
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
58
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
59
+
60
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
61
+
62
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
63
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
64
+ [DEBUG 2085] Income guard baseline: $246153.9B across 2 groups
65
+ [DEBUG 2085] SS baseline: $42328.0B, target: $19832.0B
66
+ [DEBUG 2085] Payroll cap: $1,354,200
67
+ [DEBUG 2085] Payroll baseline: $109046.0B, target: $105104.0B
68
+ [DEBUG 2085] OASDI TOB baseline: $2690.1B, target: $1208.7B
69
+ [DEBUG 2085] HI TOB baseline: $1421.2B, target: $1015.2B
70
+ [DEBUG 2085] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
71
+ [DEBUG 2085] SS achieved: $19832.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
72
+ [DEBUG 2085] Payroll achieved: $105104.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2085] OASDI TOB achieved: $1208.7B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2085] HI TOB achieved: $1015.2B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
75
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
76
+ Saved 2085.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2085 437.9M $90517.0B $55116.9B 48.94GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2086.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2086-2086
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2086-2086
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2086/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2086: 439.2M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.17 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2086] Income guard baseline: $256595.9B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2086] SS baseline: $44582.6B, target: $20554.7B
67
+ [DEBUG 2086] Payroll cap: $1,400,100
68
+ [DEBUG 2086] Payroll baseline: $113007.0B, target: $109217.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2086] OASDI TOB baseline: $2851.4B, target: $1245.1B
70
+ [DEBUG 2086] HI TOB baseline: $1493.9B, target: $1052.7B
71
+ [DEBUG 2086] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2086] SS achieved: $20554.7B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2086] Payroll achieved: $109217.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2086] OASDI TOB achieved: $1245.1B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2086] HI TOB achieved: $1052.7B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2086.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2086 439.2M $96746.5B $57330.3B 48.83GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2087.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2087-2087
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2087-2087
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2087/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2087: 440.5M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.17 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2087] Income guard baseline: $267491.6B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2087] SS baseline: $46957.4B, target: $21300.8B
67
+ [DEBUG 2087] Payroll cap: $1,447,800
68
+ [DEBUG 2087] Payroll baseline: $117115.9B, target: $113504.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2087] OASDI TOB baseline: $3022.1B, target: $1293.9B
70
+ [DEBUG 2087] HI TOB baseline: $1569.9B, target: $1090.8B
71
+ [DEBUG 2087] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2087] SS achieved: $21300.8B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2087] Payroll achieved: $113504.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2087] OASDI TOB achieved: $1293.9B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2087] HI TOB achieved: $1090.8B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2087.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2087 440.5M $104387.9B $59632.4B 48.83GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2088.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2088-2088
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2088-2088
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2088/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2088: 441.8M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.16 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2088] Income guard baseline: $278861.2B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2088] SS baseline: $49458.7B, target: $22066.1B
67
+ [DEBUG 2088] Payroll cap: $1,497,000
68
+ [DEBUG 2088] Payroll baseline: $121372.3B, target: $117973.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2088] OASDI TOB baseline: $3202.5B, target: $1344.9B
70
+ [DEBUG 2088] HI TOB baseline: $1649.9B, target: $1130.0B
71
+ [DEBUG 2088] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2088] SS achieved: $22066.1B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2088] Payroll achieved: $117973.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2088] OASDI TOB achieved: $1344.9B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2088] HI TOB achieved: $1130.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2088.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2088 441.8M $111652.8B $62026.2B 48.83GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2089.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2089-2089
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2089-2089
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2089/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2089: 443.1M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.17 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2089] Income guard baseline: $290726.0B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2089] SS baseline: $52093.2B, target: $22860.4B
67
+ [DEBUG 2089] Payroll cap: $1,548,000
68
+ [DEBUG 2089] Payroll baseline: $125785.4B, target: $122629.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2089] OASDI TOB baseline: $3393.5B, target: $1385.7B
70
+ [DEBUG 2089] HI TOB baseline: $1733.5B, target: $1170.6B
71
+ [DEBUG 2089] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2089] SS achieved: $22860.4B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2089] Payroll achieved: $122629.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2089] OASDI TOB achieved: $1385.7B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2089] HI TOB achieved: $1170.6B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2089.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2089 443.1M $116874.7B $64520.0B 48.82GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2090.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2090-2090
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2090-2090
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2090/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2090: 444.4M
33
+ 2090: 444.4M
34
+
35
+ ======================================================================
36
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
37
+ ======================================================================
38
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
39
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
40
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
41
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
42
+ Successful target clones: 1190
43
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
44
+
45
+ ======================================================================
46
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
47
+ ======================================================================
48
+
49
+ Loaded 42,504 households
50
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
51
+
52
+ ======================================================================
53
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
54
+ ======================================================================
55
+
56
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
57
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
58
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
59
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
60
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
61
+
62
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
63
+
64
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
65
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
66
+ [DEBUG 2090] Income guard baseline: $303107.9B across 2 groups
67
+ [DEBUG 2090] SS baseline: $54868.0B, target: $23680.3B
68
+ [DEBUG 2090] Payroll cap: $1,600,500
69
+ [DEBUG 2090] Payroll baseline: $130354.9B, target: $127477.0B
70
+ [DEBUG 2090] OASDI TOB baseline: $3595.2B, target: $1440.5B
71
+ [DEBUG 2090] HI TOB baseline: $1821.7B, target: $1212.5B
72
+ [DEBUG 2090] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
73
+ [DEBUG 2090] SS achieved: $23680.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2090] Payroll achieved: $127477.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2090] OASDI TOB achieved: $1440.5B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
76
+ [DEBUG 2090] HI TOB achieved: $1212.5B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
77
+ Saved 2090.h5 and metadata
78
+ 2090 444.4M $122126.6B $67112.7B 48.85GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2091.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2091-2091
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2091-2091
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2091/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2091: 445.8M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2091] Income guard baseline: $316029.9B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2091] SS baseline: $57790.7B, target: $24540.5B
67
+ [DEBUG 2091] Payroll cap: $1,654,800
68
+ [DEBUG 2091] Payroll baseline: $135090.4B, target: $132518.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2091] OASDI TOB baseline: $3808.4B, target: $1497.5B
70
+ [DEBUG 2091] HI TOB baseline: $1914.8B, target: $1256.3B
71
+ [DEBUG 2091] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2091] SS achieved: $24540.5B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2091] Payroll achieved: $132518.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2091] OASDI TOB achieved: $1497.5B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2091] HI TOB achieved: $1256.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2091.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2091 445.8M $127372.2B $69814.3B 48.84GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2092.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2092-2092
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2092-2092
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2092/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2092: 447.1M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2092] Income guard baseline: $329516.3B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2092] SS baseline: $60869.0B, target: $25438.8B
67
+ [DEBUG 2092] Payroll cap: $1,711,200
68
+ [DEBUG 2092] Payroll baseline: $140002.2B, target: $137764.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2092] OASDI TOB baseline: $4033.0B, target: $1543.0B
70
+ [DEBUG 2092] HI TOB baseline: $2013.2B, target: $1302.1B
71
+ [DEBUG 2092] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2092] SS achieved: $25438.8B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2092] Payroll achieved: $137764.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2092] OASDI TOB achieved: $1543.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2092] HI TOB achieved: $1302.1B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2092.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2092 447.1M $130728.2B $72624.1B 48.84GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2093.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2093-2093
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2093-2093
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2093/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2093: 448.5M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
38
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
39
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
40
+ Successful target clones: 1190
41
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
42
+
43
+ ======================================================================
44
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
45
+ ======================================================================
46
+
47
+ Loaded 42,504 households
48
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
49
+
50
+ ======================================================================
51
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
52
+ ======================================================================
53
+
54
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
55
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
56
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
57
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
58
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
59
+
60
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
61
+
62
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
63
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
64
+ [DEBUG 2093] Income guard baseline: $343592.1B across 2 groups
65
+ [DEBUG 2093] SS baseline: $64111.3B, target: $26380.3B
66
+ [DEBUG 2093] Payroll cap: $1,769,400
67
+ [DEBUG 2093] Payroll baseline: $145090.7B, target: $143215.0B
68
+ [DEBUG 2093] OASDI TOB baseline: $4270.3B, target: $1604.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2093] HI TOB baseline: $2117.1B, target: $1350.0B
70
+ [DEBUG 2093] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
71
+ [DEBUG 2093] SS achieved: $26380.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
72
+ [DEBUG 2093] Payroll achieved: $143215.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2093] OASDI TOB achieved: $1604.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2093] HI TOB achieved: $1350.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ Saved 2093.h5 and metadata
76
+ 2093 448.5M $133604.4B $75551.7B 48.86GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2094.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2094-2094
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2094-2094
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2094/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2094: 449.8M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2094] Income guard baseline: $358283.9B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2094] SS baseline: $67526.4B, target: $27368.7B
67
+ [DEBUG 2094] Payroll cap: $1,829,700
68
+ [DEBUG 2094] Payroll baseline: $150365.9B, target: $148876.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2094] OASDI TOB baseline: $4521.4B, target: $1667.4B
70
+ [DEBUG 2094] HI TOB baseline: $2230.6B, target: $1400.4B
71
+ [DEBUG 2094] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2094] SS achieved: $27368.7B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2094] Payroll achieved: $148876.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2094] OASDI TOB achieved: $1667.4B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2094] HI TOB achieved: $1400.4B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2094.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2094 449.8M $137299.7B $78601.0B 48.83GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2095.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2095-2095
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2095-2095
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2095/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2095: 451.2M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.17 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2095] Income guard baseline: $373619.1B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2095] SS baseline: $71123.3B, target: $28409.4B
67
+ [DEBUG 2095] Payroll cap: $1,891,800
68
+ [DEBUG 2095] Payroll baseline: $155828.7B, target: $154754.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2095] OASDI TOB baseline: $4787.5B, target: $1733.2B
70
+ [DEBUG 2095] HI TOB baseline: $2349.6B, target: $1453.7B
71
+ [DEBUG 2095] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2095] SS achieved: $28409.4B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2095] Payroll achieved: $154754.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2095] OASDI TOB achieved: $1733.2B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2095] HI TOB achieved: $1453.7B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2095.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2095 451.2M $138144.4B $81777.6B 48.82GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2096.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2096-2096
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2096-2096
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2096/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2096: 452.6M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.16 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2096] Income guard baseline: $389626.5B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2096] SS baseline: $74911.8B, target: $29501.2B
67
+ [DEBUG 2096] Payroll cap: $1,956,000
68
+ [DEBUG 2096] Payroll baseline: $161490.1B, target: $160855.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2096] OASDI TOB baseline: $5069.8B, target: $1801.6B
70
+ [DEBUG 2096] HI TOB baseline: $2474.3B, target: $1509.4B
71
+ [DEBUG 2096] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2096] SS achieved: $29501.2B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2096] Payroll achieved: $160855.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2096] OASDI TOB achieved: $1801.6B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2096] HI TOB achieved: $1509.4B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2096.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2096 452.6M $141688.2B $85082.8B 48.83GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2097.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2097-2097
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2097-2097
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2097/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2097: 454.0M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.16 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2097] Income guard baseline: $406336.4B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2097] SS baseline: $78902.1B, target: $30645.4B
67
+ [DEBUG 2097] Payroll cap: $2,022,600
68
+ [DEBUG 2097] Payroll baseline: $167360.9B, target: $167185.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2097] OASDI TOB baseline: $5372.6B, target: $1855.8B
70
+ [DEBUG 2097] HI TOB baseline: $2601.6B, target: $1567.9B
71
+ [DEBUG 2097] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2097] SS achieved: $30645.4B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2097] Payroll achieved: $167185.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2097] OASDI TOB achieved: $1855.8B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2097] HI TOB achieved: $1567.9B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2097.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2097 454.0M $151945.3B $88523.7B 48.83GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2098.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2098-2098
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2098-2098
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2098/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2098: 455.5M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2098] Income guard baseline: $423780.2B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2098] SS baseline: $83105.0B, target: $31844.5B
67
+ [DEBUG 2098] Payroll cap: $2,091,300
68
+ [DEBUG 2098] Payroll baseline: $173442.5B, target: $173750.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2098] OASDI TOB baseline: $5695.6B, target: $1928.6B
70
+ [DEBUG 2098] HI TOB baseline: $2733.4B, target: $1629.4B
71
+ [DEBUG 2098] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2098] SS achieved: $31844.5B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2098] Payroll achieved: $173750.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2098] OASDI TOB achieved: $1928.6B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2098] HI TOB achieved: $1629.4B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2098.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2098 455.5M $160311.6B $92105.6B 48.84GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2099.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2099-2099
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2099-2099
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2099/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2099: 456.9M
33
+
34
+ ======================================================================
35
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
36
+ ======================================================================
37
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
38
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
39
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
40
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
41
+ Successful target clones: 1190
42
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
43
+
44
+ ======================================================================
45
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
46
+ ======================================================================
47
+
48
+ Loaded 42,504 households
49
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
50
+
51
+ ======================================================================
52
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
53
+ ======================================================================
54
+
55
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
56
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
57
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
58
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
59
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
60
+
61
+ Initial memory usage: 3.19 GB
62
+
63
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
64
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
65
+ [DEBUG 2099] Income guard baseline: $441991.0B across 2 groups
66
+ [DEBUG 2099] SS baseline: $87531.7B, target: $33106.7B
67
+ [DEBUG 2099] Payroll cap: $2,162,400
68
+ [DEBUG 2099] Payroll baseline: $179745.2B, target: $180557.0B
69
+ [DEBUG 2099] OASDI TOB baseline: $6037.3B, target: $2022.2B
70
+ [DEBUG 2099] HI TOB baseline: $2872.3B, target: $1694.2B
71
+ [DEBUG 2099] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
72
+ [DEBUG 2099] SS achieved: $33106.7B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
73
+ [DEBUG 2099] Payroll achieved: $180557.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
74
+ [DEBUG 2099] OASDI TOB achieved: $2022.2B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2099] HI TOB achieved: $1694.2B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ Saved 2099.h5 and metadata
77
+ 2099 456.9M $168246.3B $95837.4B 48.84GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/logs/2100.log ADDED
@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
+ ======================================================================
2
+ HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2100-2100
3
+ ======================================================================
4
+
5
+ Configuration:
6
+ Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
7
+ Projection: 2100-2100
8
+ Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
9
+ Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
10
+ Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
11
+ Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
12
+ Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
13
+ Calibration method: ENTROPY
14
+ Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
15
+ Support augmentation target year: 2100
16
+ Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
17
+ Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
18
+ Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
19
+ Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
20
+ Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
21
+ Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/.parallel_tmp/2100/)
22
+ Years to process: 1
23
+ Estimated time: ~3 minutes
24
+
25
+ ======================================================================
26
+ STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
27
+ ======================================================================
28
+
29
+ Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
30
+
31
+ Population projections:
32
+ 2100: 458.3M
33
+ 2100: 458.3M
34
+
35
+ ======================================================================
36
+ STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
37
+ ======================================================================
38
+ Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
39
+ Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 42,504
40
+ Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 104,434
41
+ Augmented clone/synthetic households: 1,190
42
+ Successful target clones: 1190
43
+ Skipped synthetic targets: 0
44
+
45
+ ======================================================================
46
+ STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
47
+ ======================================================================
48
+
49
+ Loaded 42,504 households
50
+ Household age matrix shape: (42504, 86)
51
+
52
+ ======================================================================
53
+ STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
54
+ ======================================================================
55
+
56
+ Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
57
+ 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
58
+ 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
59
+ 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
60
+ 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
61
+
62
+ Initial memory usage: 3.18 GB
63
+
64
+ Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory
65
+ -----------------------------------------------------------------
66
+ [DEBUG 2100] Income guard baseline: $461003.2B across 2 groups
67
+ [DEBUG 2100] SS baseline: $92194.3B, target: $34434.6B
68
+ [DEBUG 2100] Payroll cap: $2,235,900
69
+ [DEBUG 2100] Payroll baseline: $186276.4B, target: $187614.0B
70
+ [DEBUG 2100] OASDI TOB baseline: $6399.1B, target: $2101.3B
71
+ [DEBUG 2100] HI TOB baseline: $3009.4B, target: $1761.5B
72
+ [DEBUG 2100] Using support blueprint for 1190 clone households (base-weight scale 5.000)
73
+ [DEBUG 2100] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
74
+ [DEBUG 2100] SS achieved: $34434.6B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
75
+ [DEBUG 2100] Payroll achieved: $187614.0B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
76
+ [DEBUG 2100] OASDI TOB achieved: $2101.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
77
+ [DEBUG 2100] HI TOB achieved: $1761.5B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
78
+ Saved 2100.h5 and metadata
79
+ 2100 458.3M $119156.7B $99713.6B 48.84GB
staging/5a357137e2fd33975745603915e98a51b7be81d0-crfb-longrun-20260520-5a35713-annual/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json ADDED
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