Upload batch 1 to staging for candidate ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9 (crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100)

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/_run_context.json

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+  "github_repository": "PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data",
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+  "modal_app_name": "us-data-ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-m-8c561bde",
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+}

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/2100.h5

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staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/2100.h5.metadata.json

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staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/calibration_manifest.json

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+    "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
+    "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
+    "not_default_current_law": true,
+    "parameter_groups": [
+      "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
+    ],
+    "projection_base_year": 2026,
+    "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
+    "start_year": 2035,
+    "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
+    "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
+  },
+  "year_range": {
+    "end": 2100,
+    "start": 2100
+  },
+  "years": [
+    2100
+  ]
+}

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/logs/2100.log

@@ -0,0 +1,79 @@
+======================================================================
+HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2100-2100
+======================================================================
+
+Configuration:
+  Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
+  Projection: 2100-2100
+  Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
+  Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
+  Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
+  Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
+  Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
+  Calibration method: ENTROPY
+  Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1
+  Support augmentation target year: 2100
+  Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0
+  Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all
+  Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
+  Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
+  Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
+  Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/.parallel_tmp/2100/)
+  Years to process: 1
+  Estimated time: ~3 minutes
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
+======================================================================
+
+Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
+
+Population projections:
+  2100:  458.3M
+  2100:  458.3M
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION
+======================================================================
+Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
+  Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 41,694
+  Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 102,384
+  Augmented clone/synthetic households: 380
+  Successful target clones: 380
+  Skipped synthetic targets: 0
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
+======================================================================
+
+Loaded 41,694 households
+Household age matrix shape: (41694, 86)
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
+======================================================================
+
+Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
+  1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
+  2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
+  3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
+  4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
+
+Initial memory usage: 3.28 GB
+
+Year    Population    Income Tax    Baseline Tax    Memory
+-----------------------------------------------------------------
+  [DEBUG 2100] Income guard baseline: $57825.0B across 2 groups
+  [DEBUG 2100] SS baseline: $93345.0B, target: $34434.6B
+  [DEBUG 2100] Payroll cap: $2,235,900
+  [DEBUG 2100] Payroll baseline: $151055.5B, target: $187614.0B
+  [DEBUG 2100] OASDI TOB baseline: $7042.9B, target: $2101.3B
+  [DEBUG 2100] HI TOB baseline: $3347.8B, target: $1761.5B
+  [DEBUG 2100] Using support blueprint for 380 clone households (base-weight scale 5.000)
+  [DEBUG 2100] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
+  [DEBUG 2100] SS achieved: $34434.6B (error: $0.1M, 0.000%)
+  [DEBUG 2100] Payroll achieved: $187614.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
+  [DEBUG 2100] OASDI TOB achieved: $2101.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%)
+  [DEBUG 2100] HI TOB achieved: $1761.5B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
+  Saved 2100.h5 and metadata
+2100      458.3M     $91092.9B     $53948.6B     46.68GB

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+{
+  "artifacts": [
+    {
+      "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/2100.h5",
+      "size_bytes": 50612418,
+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/2100.h5"
+    },
+    {
+      "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/2100.h5.metadata.json",
+      "size_bytes": 11965,
+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/2100.h5.metadata.json"
+    },
+    {
+      "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/calibration_manifest.json",
+      "size_bytes": 5833,
+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/calibration_manifest.json"
+    },
+    {
+      "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/.parallel_logs/2100.log",
+      "size_bytes": 3686,
+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/logs/2100.log"
+    },
+    {
+      "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/support_augmentation_report.json",
+      "size_bytes": 490743,
+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/support_augmentation_report.json"
+    }
+  ],
+  "command": [
+    "/.uv/.venv/bin/python",
+    "/root/policyengine-us-data/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection_parallel.py",
+    "--years",
+    "2100",
+    "--jobs",
+    "1",
+    "--output-dir",
+    "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100",
+    "--profile",
+    "ss-payroll-tob",
+    "--target-source",
+    "trustees_2025_current_law",
+    "--tax-assumption",
+    "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
+    "--support-augmentation-profile",
+    "donor-backed-composite-v1",
+    "--support-augmentation-target-year",
+    "2100",
+    "--support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale",
+    "5.0",
+    "--support-augmentation-sanitize-clone-non-target-income"
+  ],
+  "created_at": "2026-05-18T06:51:24.650782+00:00",
+  "git_sha": "",
+  "github": {
+    "repository": "PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data",
+    "run_attempt": "",
+    "run_id": "",
+    "run_url": "",
+    "workflow": ""
+  },
+  "hf_staging": {
+    "artifact_prefix": "long_term",
+    "enabled": true,
+    "repo": "policyengine/policyengine-us-data",
+    "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100"
+  },
+  "package_versions": {
+    "policyengine-core": "3.26.1",
+    "policyengine-us": "1.693.4",
+    "policyengine-us-data": "1.115.2"
+  },
+  "policyengine_us": {
+    "locked_version": "1.693.4",
+    "package_file_sha256": "4816cc93528d4b0e752d0c27242911fa4d35c97c26ac7ff171c468cf5ae3e670",
+    "package_tree_sha256": "4497d12ae7d2e31fee55316c5f343f02e50dfa97694bdca113e52d6dd65696b4",
+    "version": "1.693.4"
+  },
+  "projection": {
+    "allow_validation_failures": false,
+    "base_dataset": null,
+    "jobs": 1,
+    "profile": "ss-payroll-tob",
+    "support_augmentation": {
+      "align_to_run_year": false,
+      "blueprint_base_weight_scale": 5.0,
+      "clone_weight_scale": null,
+      "donors_per_target": null,
+      "max_distance": null,
+      "profile": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
+      "sanitize_clone_non_target_income": true,
+      "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
+      "start_year": null,
+      "target_year": 2100,
+      "top_n_targets": null
+    },
+    "target_source": "trustees_2025_current_law",
+    "tax_assumption": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
+    "years": [
+      2100
+    ],
+    "years_spec": "2100"
+  },
+  "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100",
+  "source_sha": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9"
+}