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"not_default_current_law": true, + "parameter_groups": [ + "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters" + ], + "projection_base_year": 2026, + "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026", + "start_year": 2035, + "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating", + "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi" + }, + "year_range": { + "end": 2100, + "start": 2100 + }, + "years": [ + 2100 + ] +} diff --git a/staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/logs/2100.log b/staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/logs/2100.log new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..998dc308f46ded602ca9e66d4887d8242ccce740 --- /dev/null +++ b/staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/logs/2100.log @@ -0,0 +1,79 @@ +====================================================================== +HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2100-2100 +====================================================================== + +Configuration: + Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata) + Projection: 2100-2100 + Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified) + Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob + Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption. + Target source: trustees_2025_current_law + Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1 + Calibration method: ENTROPY + Support augmentation: donor-backed-composite-v1 + Support augmentation target year: 2100 + Support augmentation blueprint base-weight scale: 5.0 + Non-target income sanitizer mode: clone_all + Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes + Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes + Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes + Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/.parallel_tmp/2100/) + Years to process: 1 + Estimated time: ~3 minutes + +====================================================================== +STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS +====================================================================== + +Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years + +Population projections: + 2100: 458.3M + 2100: 458.3M + +====================================================================== +STEP 1B: BUILD LATE-YEAR SUPPORT AUGMENTATION +====================================================================== +Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads. + Base households -> augmented households: 41,314 -> 41,694 + Base people -> augmented people: 101,384 -> 102,384 + Augmented clone/synthetic households: 380 + Successful target clones: 380 + Skipped synthetic targets: 0 + +====================================================================== +STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION +====================================================================== + +Loaded 41,694 households +Household age matrix shape: (41694, 86) + +====================================================================== +STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION +====================================================================== + +Methodology (SIMPLIFIED): + 1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year + 2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household') + 3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics + 4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed) + +Initial memory usage: 3.28 GB + +Year Population Income Tax Baseline Tax Memory +----------------------------------------------------------------- + [DEBUG 2100] Income guard baseline: $57825.0B across 2 groups + [DEBUG 2100] SS baseline: $93345.0B, target: $34434.6B + [DEBUG 2100] Payroll cap: $2,235,900 + [DEBUG 2100] Payroll baseline: $151055.5B, target: $187614.0B + [DEBUG 2100] OASDI TOB baseline: $7042.9B, target: $2101.3B + [DEBUG 2100] HI TOB baseline: $3347.8B, target: $1761.5B + [DEBUG 2100] Using support blueprint for 380 clone households (base-weight scale 5.000) + [DEBUG 2100] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative) + [DEBUG 2100] SS achieved: $34434.6B (error: $0.1M, 0.000%) + [DEBUG 2100] Payroll achieved: $187614.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%) + [DEBUG 2100] OASDI TOB achieved: $2101.3B (error: $0.0M, -0.000%) + [DEBUG 2100] HI TOB achieved: $1761.5B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%) + Saved 2100.h5 and metadata +2100 458.3M $91092.9B $53948.6B 46.68GB diff --git a/staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json b/staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7c4898ab32392975680d5e8320e115d794717105 --- /dev/null +++ b/staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json @@ -0,0 +1,105 @@ +{ + "artifacts": [ + { + "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/2100.h5", + "size_bytes": 50612418, + "staging_relative_path": "long_term/2100.h5" + }, + { + "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/2100.h5.metadata.json", + "size_bytes": 11965, + "staging_relative_path": "long_term/2100.h5.metadata.json" + }, + { + "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/calibration_manifest.json", + "size_bytes": 5833, + "staging_relative_path": "long_term/calibration_manifest.json" + }, + { + "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/.parallel_logs/2100.log", + "size_bytes": 3686, + "staging_relative_path": "long_term/logs/2100.log" + }, + { + "local_path": "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100/support_augmentation_report.json", + "size_bytes": 490743, + "staging_relative_path": "long_term/support_augmentation_report.json" + } + ], + "command": [ + "/.uv/.venv/bin/python", + "/root/policyengine-us-data/policyengine_us_data/datasets/cps/long_term/run_household_projection_parallel.py", + "--years", + "2100", + "--jobs", + "1", + "--output-dir", + "/__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100", + "--profile", + "ss-payroll-tob", + "--target-source", + "trustees_2025_current_law", + "--tax-assumption", + "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1", + "--support-augmentation-profile", + "donor-backed-composite-v1", + "--support-augmentation-target-year", + "2100", + "--support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale", + "5.0", + "--support-augmentation-sanitize-clone-non-target-income" + ], + "created_at": "2026-05-18T06:51:24.650782+00:00", + "git_sha": "", + "github": { + "repository": "PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data", + "run_attempt": "", + "run_id": "", + "run_url": "", + "workflow": "" + }, + "hf_staging": { + "artifact_prefix": "long_term", + "enabled": true, + "repo": "policyengine/policyengine-us-data", + "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2100" + }, + "package_versions": { + "policyengine-core": "3.26.1", + "policyengine-us": "1.693.4", + "policyengine-us-data": 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