Upload batch 1 to staging for candidate ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9 (crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026)

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/_run_context.json

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+{
+  "candidate_version": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9",
+  "data_package_version": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9",
+  "github_repository": "PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data",
+  "github_sha": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9",
+  "hf_staging_prefix": "staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026",
+  "modal_app_name": "us-data-ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-m-c5b9af88",
+  "modal_environment": "main",
+  "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026"
+}

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/long_term/2026.h5

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+version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
+oid sha256:95012ce925fd04d8b88f1bb0b764a1579db876464db1d2513bce59cbe54d99af
+size 50134050

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/long_term/2026.h5.metadata.json

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+{
+  "base_dataset_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5",
+  "base_dataset_snapshot": {
+    "requested_path": "hf://policyengine/policyengine-us-data/enhanced_cps_2024.h5"
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+    "constraint_provenance": {
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+        "classification": "hard",
+        "scoring_contract": "population calibration target",
+        "source": "trustees_2025_current_law"
+      },
+      "hi_tob": {
+        "classification": "hard",
+        "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
+        "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
+      },
+      "oasdi_tob": {
+        "classification": "hard",
+        "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
+        "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
+      },
+      "payroll_total": {
+        "classification": "hard",
+        "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
+        "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
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+      "ss_total": {
+        "classification": "hard",
+        "scoring_contract": "same formula path used by production scoring",
+        "source": "policyengine_formula_on_scored_h5"
+      }
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+        "error": 352.8630676269531,
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+    "top_10_weight_share_pct": 5.209816138903184,
+    "validation_issues": [],
+    "validation_passed": true
+  },
+  "contract_version": 1,
+  "policyengine_us": {
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+    "version": "1.693.4"
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+  "profile": {
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+        "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
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+        "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
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+      {
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+    "calibration_method": "entropy",
+    "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
+    "max_age_error_pct": 0.1,
+    "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
+    "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
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+    "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
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+    "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
+    "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
+    "use_greg": false,
+    "use_h6_reform": false,
+    "use_payroll": true,
+    "use_ss": true,
+    "use_tob": true
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+  "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026",
+  "source_sha": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9",
+  "target_source": {
+    "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
+    "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
+    "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
+    "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
+    "not_law": false,
+    "notes": [
+      "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
+    ],
+    "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
+    "source_urls": [
+      "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
+      "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
+    ],
+    "type": "trustees_current_law"
+  },
+  "tax_assumption": {
+    "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
+    "end_year": 2100,
+    "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
+    "not_default_current_law": true,
+    "parameter_groups": [
+      "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
+    ],
+    "projection_base_year": 2026,
+    "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
+    "start_year": 2035,
+    "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
+    "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
+  },
+  "year": 2026
+}

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/long_term/calibration_manifest.json

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+{
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+  "base_dataset_snapshot": null,
+  "contains_invalid_artifacts": false,
+  "contract_version": 1,
+  "datasets": {
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+      "h5": "2026.h5",
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+      "metadata": "2026.h5.metadata.json",
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+      "validation_issue_count": 0,
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+  "generated_at": "2026-05-18T06:36:18.668342+00:00",
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+    "version": "1.693.4"
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+        "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
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+        "start_year": 2075
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+      {
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+      {
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+    "benchmark_tob": false,
+    "calibration_method": "entropy",
+    "description": "Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.",
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+    "max_constraint_error_pct": 0.1,
+    "max_negative_weight_pct": 0.0,
+    "max_top_100_weight_share_pct": 95.0,
+    "max_top_10_weight_share_pct": 25.0,
+    "min_effective_sample_size": 75.0,
+    "min_positive_household_count": 1000,
+    "name": "ss-payroll-tob",
+    "use_greg": false,
+    "use_h6_reform": false,
+    "use_payroll": true,
+    "use_ss": true,
+    "use_tob": true
+  },
+  "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026",
+  "source_sha": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9",
+  "support_augmentation": null,
+  "target_source": {
+    "baseline_kind": "current_law_comparator",
+    "description": "2025 Trustees current-law baseline used by the legacy long-term calibration stack.",
+    "file": "trustees_2025_current_law.csv",
+    "name": "trustees_2025_current_law",
+    "not_law": false,
+    "notes": [
+      "Generated from social_security_aux.csv for explicit source selection."
+    ],
+    "sha256": "e059aa9fba806b260a399b8a6a18b892a6363ba12ee00fe21ab109d09dff0ec4",
+    "source_urls": [
+      "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2025/lrIndex.html",
+      "https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/tables/table_run133.html"
+    ],
+    "type": "trustees_current_law"
+  },
+  "tax_assumption": {
+    "description": "Best-public Trustees tax-side approximation: keep Social Security benefit-tax thresholds fixed, but wage-index all federal income tax parameters that otherwise use IRS CPI uprating after 2034 using the active NAWI path.",
+    "name": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
+    "not_default_current_law": true,
+    "parameter_groups": [
+      "all_gov_irs_uprating_parameters"
+    ],
+    "projection_base_year": 2026,
+    "source": "SSA 2025 Trustees Report V.C.7 and OACT email clarification, May 6, 2026",
+    "start_year": 2035,
+    "uprating_parameter": "gov.irs.uprating",
+    "wage_index": "gov.ssa.nawi"
+  },
+  "year_range": {
+    "end": 2026,
+    "start": 2026
+  },
+  "years": [
+    2026
+  ]
+}

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/long_term/logs/2026.log

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+======================================================================
+HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL INCOME TAX PROJECTION: 2026-2026
+======================================================================
+
+Configuration:
+  Base year: 2024 (CPS microdata)
+  Projection: 2026-2026
+  Calculation level: HOUSEHOLD ONLY (simplified)
+  Calibration profile: ss-payroll-tob
+  Profile description: Age, Social Security, taxable payroll, and TOB using positive entropy calibration under the long-run core-threshold tax assumption.
+  Target source: trustees_2025_current_law
+  Long-run tax assumption: trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1
+  Calibration method: ENTROPY
+  Including Social Security benefits constraint: Yes
+  Including taxable payroll constraint: Yes
+  Including TOB revenue constraint: Yes
+  Saving year-specific .h5 files: Yes (to /__modal/volumes/vo-Z61F7GEhCDhsa5YnQg4DRJ/crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/.parallel_tmp/2026/)
+  Years to process: 1
+  Estimated time: ~3 minutes
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 1: DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
+======================================================================
+
+Loaded SSA projections: 86 ages x 1 years
+
+Population projections:
+  2026:  348.8M
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 2: BUILDING HOUSEHOLD AGE COMPOSITION
+======================================================================
+
+Loaded 41,314 households
+Household age matrix shape: (41314, 86)
+
+======================================================================
+STEP 3: HOUSEHOLD-LEVEL PROJECTION
+======================================================================
+
+Methodology (SIMPLIFIED):
+  1. PolicyEngine uprates to each projection year
+  2. Calculate all values at household level (map_to='household')
+  3. IPF/GREG adjusts weights to match SSA demographics
+  4. Apply calibrated weights directly (no aggregation needed)
+
+Initial memory usage: 1.01 GB
+
+Year    Population    Income Tax    Baseline Tax    Memory
+-----------------------------------------------------------------
+Warning: You are sending unauthenticated requests to the HF Hub. Please set a HF_TOKEN to enable higher rate limits and faster downloads.
+  [DEBUG 2026] SS baseline: $1925.5B, target: $1701.3B
+  [DEBUG 2026] Payroll cap: $184,500
+  [DEBUG 2026] Payroll baseline: $10452.8B, target: $11129.0B
+  [DEBUG 2026] OASDI TOB baseline: $73.5B, target: $76.8B
+  [DEBUG 2026] HI TOB baseline: $48.9B, target: $52.2B
+  [DEBUG 2026] Negative weights: 0 (all weights non-negative)
+  [DEBUG 2026] SS achieved: $1701.3B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
+  [DEBUG 2026] Payroll achieved: $11129.0B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
+  [DEBUG 2026] OASDI TOB achieved: $76.8B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
+  [DEBUG 2026] HI TOB achieved: $52.2B (error: $0.0M, 0.000%)
+  Saved 2026.h5 and metadata
+2026      348.8M     $ 2346.4B     $ 2106.8B     45.85GB

staging/ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9-crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026/long_term/long_run_production_manifest.json

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+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/2026.h5.metadata.json"
+    },
+    {
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+      "size_bytes": 5010,
+      "staging_relative_path": "long_term/calibration_manifest.json"
+    },
+    {
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+    "donor-backed-composite-v1",
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+    "2100",
+    "--support-augmentation-blueprint-base-weight-scale",
+    "5.0",
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+  "github": {
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+    "run_attempt": "",
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+    "run_url": "",
+    "workflow": ""
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+  "hf_staging": {
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+    "repo": "policyengine/policyengine-us-data",
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+    "jobs": 1,
+    "profile": "ss-payroll-tob",
+    "support_augmentation": {
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+      "donors_per_target": null,
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+      "profile": "donor-backed-composite-v1",
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+      "sanitize_worker_non_target_income": false,
+      "start_year": null,
+      "target_year": 2100,
+      "top_n_targets": null
+    },
+    "target_source": "trustees_2025_current_law",
+    "tax_assumption": "trustees-2025-core-thresholds-v1",
+    "years": [
+      2026
+    ],
+    "years_spec": "2026"
+  },
+  "run_id": "crfb-modal-sentinel-20260518-ef50fc72-y2026",
+  "source_sha": "ef50fc72fefbec22be91f63c5a76d9b214f9a9e9"
+}