Upload folder using huggingface_hub
Browse files- README.md +165 -0
- config.json +40 -0
- model.safetensors +3 -0
- run.json +110 -0
- seed_replication.json +380 -0
- tokenizer.json +0 -0
- tokenizer_config.json +15 -0
README.md
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| 1 |
+
---
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| 2 |
+
language: en
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| 3 |
+
license: cc-by-nc-sa-4.0
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| 4 |
+
base_model: ProsusAI/finbert
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| 5 |
+
pipeline_tag: text-classification
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| 6 |
+
tags:
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| 7 |
+
- finance
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| 8 |
+
- financial-nlp
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| 9 |
+
- sentiment-analysis
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| 10 |
+
- macroeconomics
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| 11 |
+
- bert
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| 12 |
+
metrics:
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| 13 |
+
- f1
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| 14 |
+
- accuracy
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| 15 |
+
---
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| 16 |
+
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| 17 |
+
# finbert-macro
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| 18 |
+
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| 19 |
+
FinBERT fine-tuned to read macroeconomic headlines by their effect on equities, without losing the
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| 20 |
+
base model's grip on company news.
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| 21 |
+
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| 22 |
+
ProsusAI/finbert scores 39.0 macro-F1 on the macro test set, which is near chance for three classes.
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| 23 |
+
This checkpoint scores 68.8, and corporate news improves at the same time, 70.2 to 84.0.
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| 24 |
+
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| 25 |
+
## Labels
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| 26 |
+
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| 27 |
+
`0 = positive`, `1 = negative`, `2 = neutral`, the same ids as the base model.
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| 28 |
+
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| 29 |
+
On macro text the label is market impact, not tone. Dovish maps to positive, hawkish maps to
|
| 30 |
+
negative. A hot CPI print or a strong payrolls number comes back `negative` here because it implies
|
| 31 |
+
tighter policy. If you want literal sentiment, use ProsusAI/finbert instead.
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
## Usage
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| 34 |
+
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| 35 |
+
```python
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| 36 |
+
from transformers import AutoTokenizer, AutoModelForSequenceClassification
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| 37 |
+
import torch
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| 38 |
+
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| 39 |
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name = "ryousuf569/finbert-macro"
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| 40 |
+
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(name)
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| 41 |
+
model = AutoModelForSequenceClassification.from_pretrained(name).eval()
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| 42 |
+
|
| 43 |
+
texts = ["Powell signals rate cuts are coming as price pressures ease",
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| 44 |
+
"Payrolls blow past forecasts, wage growth accelerates",
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| 45 |
+
"GDP growth unchanged from prior quarter"]
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| 46 |
+
with torch.no_grad():
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| 47 |
+
logits = model(**tok(texts, padding=True, truncation=True,
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| 48 |
+
max_length=64, return_tensors="pt")).logits
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| 49 |
+
for t, p in zip(texts, logits.argmax(-1).tolist()):
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| 50 |
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print(model.config.id2label[p], "|", t)
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| 51 |
+
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| 52 |
+
# positive | Powell signals rate cuts are coming as price pressures ease
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| 53 |
+
# negative | Payrolls blow past forecasts, wage growth accelerates
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| 54 |
+
# neutral | GDP growth unchanged from prior quarter
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| 55 |
+
```
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
"Jobless claims rise, cooling a tight labor market" also comes back positive, which is the mapping
|
| 58 |
+
working as intended rather than a bug.
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
## Results
|
| 61 |
+
|
| 62 |
+
Macro and corporate are always reported separately. Averaging them would hide a macro gain paid for
|
| 63 |
+
by forgetting corporate news.
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| 64 |
+
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| 65 |
+
| model | macro acc | macro F1 | corporate acc | corporate F1 |
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| 66 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 67 |
+
| ProsusAI/finbert | 38.06 | 39.03 | 71.60 | 70.24 |
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| 68 |
+
| finbert-macro | 68.89 | 68.82 | 85.03 | 83.97 |
|
| 69 |
+
| change | +30.83 | +29.79 | +13.43 | +13.73 |
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| 70 |
+
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| 71 |
+
Macro test set is 6,101 real held-out rows, corporate is 4,169. No class collapsed on either set.
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| 72 |
+
Lowest per-class F1 is 65.9 on macro, 81.3 on corporate.
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| 73 |
+
|
| 74 |
+
## Seed replication
|
| 75 |
+
|
| 76 |
+
One seed cannot separate a real gap from run-to-run noise, so the winning configuration (u6@32k: 6
|
| 77 |
+
unfrozen encoder blocks, 32,000 training rows) and the runner-up (u4@20k: 4 blocks, 20,000 rows)
|
| 78 |
+
were each retrained from scratch at seeds 42, 1 and 2.
|
| 79 |
+
|
| 80 |
+
**u6@32k beats u4@20k by 1.87 points of macro-F1 and 1.67 points of corporate F1. Both gaps survive
|
| 81 |
+
the change of seed, and both domains improve at once, so this is not a macro-for-corporate trade.**
|
| 82 |
+
|
| 83 |
+
| config | seed 42 | seed 1 | seed 2 | mean | std | min to max |
|
| 84 |
+
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 85 |
+
| macro-F1, u4@20k | 67.59 | 67.29 | 67.41 | 67.43 | 0.15 | 67.29 to 67.59 |
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| 86 |
+
| macro-F1, u6@32k | 68.82 | 69.34 | 69.73 | 69.30 | 0.46 | 68.82 to 69.73 |
|
| 87 |
+
| corporate F1, u4@20k | 81.39 | 82.06 | 82.32 | 81.92 | 0.48 | 81.39 to 82.32 |
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| 88 |
+
| corporate F1, u6@32k | 83.97 | 82.66 | 84.16 | 83.60 | 0.82 | 82.66 to 84.16 |
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| 89 |
+
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| 90 |
+
The macro gap of 1.87 points is wider than the widest seed range of 0.91, and the corporate gap of
|
| 91 |
+
1.67 is wider than its widest range of 1.50. Every u6@32k seed beats every u4@20k seed on both
|
| 92 |
+
metrics. Three seeds gives a range, not a significance test, so there is no p-value here and none
|
| 93 |
+
should be inferred.
|
| 94 |
+
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| 95 |
+
The published weights are the seed 42 run, the seed fixed before the replication study. Seed 2
|
| 96 |
+
scored higher at 69.73, but picking it would be selecting a checkpoint on the test set.
|
| 97 |
+
|
| 98 |
+
## What did not replicate
|
| 99 |
+
|
| 100 |
+
Four other metrics moved more between seeds than between configurations, so they were dropped from
|
| 101 |
+
the decision and are listed here only as description.
|
| 102 |
+
|
| 103 |
+
| metric | gap between configs | widest seed range |
|
| 104 |
+
|---|---|---|
|
| 105 |
+
| probe accuracy (48 probes) | 8.33 | 14.58 |
|
| 106 |
+
| minimal pairs solved (of 18) | 1.67 | 7.00 |
|
| 107 |
+
| polarity-agreeing probe accuracy (14 probes) | 7.14 | 7.14 |
|
| 108 |
+
| Financial PhraseBank F1 | 12.31 | 13.29 |
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
The probe suite is small enough that this is structural. With 14 polarity-agreeing probes, one probe
|
| 111 |
+
changing its answer is worth 7.14 points, which is the entire gap. More probes would fix this. More
|
| 112 |
+
seeds would not.
|
| 113 |
+
|
| 114 |
+
## Limitations
|
| 115 |
+
|
| 116 |
+
The PhraseBank comparison is not clean. This model gets 73.1 PhraseBank macro-F1 against the base
|
| 117 |
+
model's 96.3, but ProsusAI/finbert was itself fine-tuned on Financial PhraseBank, so 96.3 is close
|
| 118 |
+
to its training score. PhraseBank was never trained on here and every pool was filtered against it
|
| 119 |
+
for leakage. Read 73.1 as retained company-level ability rather than a 23-point regression.
|
| 120 |
+
|
| 121 |
+
Two things changed at once between u6@32k and u4@20k, unfreeze depth and training rows. The gain is
|
| 122 |
+
real and repeatable, but this experiment cannot say which of the two produced it.
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
1,817 of the 20,800 macro training rows are synthetic templates. They are scored as a separate
|
| 125 |
+
evaluation set and never folded into the reported macro number, but they are in the training mix.
|
| 126 |
+
|
| 127 |
+
Scope is short English headlines and policy sentences, 64 tokens. Central-bank language from 1996 to
|
| 128 |
+
2024 dominates the macro side. Not built for filings, transcripts, long documents or other
|
| 129 |
+
languages. The output is a text label, not a market forecast.
|
| 130 |
+
|
| 131 |
+
## Training
|
| 132 |
+
|
| 133 |
+
32,000 rows, 20,800 macro and 11,200 corporate, sampled without replacement. The corporate share is
|
| 134 |
+
an anchor against forgetting. Everything is frozen except the top 6 encoder blocks, the pooler and
|
| 135 |
+
the head, since full fine-tuning is the fastest way to lose corporate competence. Cross-entropy with
|
| 136 |
+
inverse-frequency class weights, lr 2e-5, weight decay 0.01, warmup 0.1, batch 32, fp16.
|
| 137 |
+
|
| 138 |
+
Both a macro and a corporate validation set are scored each epoch. The selected epoch maximizes
|
| 139 |
+
macro-F1 while corporate validation F1 stays within 0.01 of the base checkpoint. Epoch 5 of 7 won
|
| 140 |
+
and its weights were restored, against a ceiling of 16 epochs with early stopping. Training took 145
|
| 141 |
+
minutes on one GTX 1660 Ti (6 GB, Turing).
|
| 142 |
+
|
| 143 |
+
On that card `torch.cuda.is_bf16_supported()` returns True but counts emulated bf16, which is
|
| 144 |
+
unusably slow, so this was trained in fp16.
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
## Data and license
|
| 147 |
+
|
| 148 |
+
Macro pool: World Central Banks, 16,870 rows, CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. FOMC / Trillion Dollar Words, 1,660
|
| 149 |
+
rows, CC BY-NC 4.0. FinMarBa headlines, 749 rows, MIT. Synthetic templates, 1,848 rows.
|
| 150 |
+
|
| 151 |
+
Corporate pool: SEntFiN, Twitter financial news and FiQA, 14,591 rows, all MIT.
|
| 152 |
+
|
| 153 |
+
Splits are date-blocked per source where dates exist and grouped-random otherwise.
|
| 154 |
+
|
| 155 |
+
The largest macro source is CC BY-NC-SA 4.0, so this model is released under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0,
|
| 156 |
+
non-commercial and share-alike. That is stricter than the base model's Apache-2.0 licence, and the
|
| 157 |
+
restriction comes from the training data.
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
## Reproducing the seed study
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
```bash
|
| 162 |
+
python seed_rep.py --criterion macro_floored --seeds 42 1 2 \
|
| 163 |
+
--config "u4@20k:unfreeze=4,total=20000" \
|
| 164 |
+
--config "u6@32k:unfreeze=6,total=32000" --yes
|
| 165 |
+
```
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config.json
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{
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| 2 |
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"add_cross_attention": false,
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| 3 |
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"architectures": [
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| 4 |
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"BertForSequenceClassification"
|
| 5 |
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],
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| 6 |
+
"attention_probs_dropout_prob": 0.1,
|
| 7 |
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"bos_token_id": null,
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| 8 |
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"classifier_dropout": null,
|
| 9 |
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"dtype": "float32",
|
| 10 |
+
"eos_token_id": null,
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| 11 |
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"gradient_checkpointing": false,
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| 12 |
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"hidden_act": "gelu",
|
| 13 |
+
"hidden_dropout_prob": 0.1,
|
| 14 |
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"hidden_size": 768,
|
| 15 |
+
"id2label": {
|
| 16 |
+
"0": "positive",
|
| 17 |
+
"1": "negative",
|
| 18 |
+
"2": "neutral"
|
| 19 |
+
},
|
| 20 |
+
"initializer_range": 0.02,
|
| 21 |
+
"intermediate_size": 3072,
|
| 22 |
+
"is_decoder": false,
|
| 23 |
+
"label2id": {
|
| 24 |
+
"negative": 1,
|
| 25 |
+
"neutral": 2,
|
| 26 |
+
"positive": 0
|
| 27 |
+
},
|
| 28 |
+
"layer_norm_eps": 1e-12,
|
| 29 |
+
"max_position_embeddings": 512,
|
| 30 |
+
"model_type": "bert",
|
| 31 |
+
"num_attention_heads": 12,
|
| 32 |
+
"num_hidden_layers": 12,
|
| 33 |
+
"pad_token_id": 0,
|
| 34 |
+
"position_embedding_type": "absolute",
|
| 35 |
+
"tie_word_embeddings": true,
|
| 36 |
+
"transformers_version": "5.14.1",
|
| 37 |
+
"type_vocab_size": 2,
|
| 38 |
+
"use_cache": false,
|
| 39 |
+
"vocab_size": 30522
|
| 40 |
+
}
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model.safetensors
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version https://git-lfs.github.com/spec/v1
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| 2 |
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oid sha256:e4f123018d76a4f6a0227298b27e7c7f684c4d603f4850d72c27bb4dca00de14
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| 3 |
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size 437961724
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run.json
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{
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"tag": "mix65_unfreeze6_full32k",
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| 3 |
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"model_dir": "models\\mix65_unfreeze6_full32k",
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| 4 |
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"macro_share": 0.65,
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| 5 |
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"unfreeze_top_layers": 6,
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| 26 |
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| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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| 30 |
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| 31 |
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| 33 |
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]
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| 108 |
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| 109 |
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"minutes": 144.56
|
| 110 |
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}
|
seed_replication.json
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,380 @@
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
| 1 |
+
{
|
| 2 |
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"generated": "2026-08-20 11:17:21",
|
| 3 |
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"rule": "macro and corporate are carried side by side as separate columns and are NEVER averaged",
|
| 4 |
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"note": "Ranges over a handful of seeds. No significance test, no p-value.",
|
| 5 |
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"seeds": [
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| 6 |
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42,
|
| 7 |
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1,
|
| 8 |
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| 9 |
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],
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| 10 |
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| 11 |
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|
| 13 |
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|
| 14 |
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"reason": "NVIDIA GeForce GTX 1660 Ti sm_75 no native bf16"
|
| 15 |
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},
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| 16 |
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"metrics": {
|
| 17 |
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| 18 |
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| 19 |
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| 20 |
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| 21 |
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| 22 |
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| 23 |
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| 24 |
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| 25 |
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| 26 |
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},
|
| 27 |
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| 28 |
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| 29 |
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| 30 |
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| 31 |
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},
|
| 32 |
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| 33 |
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| 35 |
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| 42 |
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| 47 |
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| 48 |
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| 49 |
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| 50 |
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| 70 |
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"config": "u4@20k",
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"seed": 42,
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"dir": "models/mix65_unfreeze4_macro_floored_s42",
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"how": "run.json match in mix65_unfreeze4_macro_floored_s42",
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"dir": "models/rep_u4_20k_s2",
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},
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|
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tokenizer_config.json
ADDED
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|
| 1 |
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{
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| 2 |
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|
| 3 |
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| 4 |
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| 5 |
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| 10 |
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|
| 13 |
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|
| 14 |
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|
| 15 |
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}
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