The Syrians might be tempted to launch an offensive against Israel with the objective of breaking the deadlock over the future of the Golan Heights.

叙利亚人可能会企图对以色列发起进攻以达到打破戈兰高地未来僵局的目的。


However, in the case of Kashmir, the asymmetric conflict currently fought by proxies and terrorist groups might not degenerate into all-out war precisely because India and Pakistan have mutual nuclear deterrence.Indeed, such asymmetric conflicts through proxies have become the new conventional way that states avoid the price of a general war.

然而，在克什米尔问题上，现在由代理人和恐怖分子集团参与的不对称冲突可能不会退化为一场全面的战争，恰恰是由于印度和巴基斯坦都拥有相互的核威慑。 的确，这种通过代理人进行的不对称冲突已成为各个国家避免付出全面战争代价的新的常规方式。


This changing nature of the battlefield essentially means that war as a conclusive event in an international conflict has become obsolete.

战场不断变化的特点从本质上意味着战争作为国际冲突的决定性事件的理念已经过时了。


The facile Clausewitzian wisdom that military action ultimately leads to a political solution is no longer convincing.

克劳塞维茨式的 认为军事行动最终将导致政治解决的浅显理论已不再让人信服。


“Victory” cannot bring peace, simply because there will always be a war after the war.

“胜利”不能带来和平，就是因为战争还会接连不断地发生。


Thus, for example, the conventional war in Kosovo lasted for two months, only to usher in a six-year asymmetric conflict.

因此，例如，科索沃的常规战争持续了两个月，就开启了长达六年的非对称冲突的序幕。


Likewise, America’s three-week “shock and awe” campaign in Iraq in 2003 ended in “victory,” but opened the gates of hell for occupiers and ordinary Iraqis alike.

同样，美国2003年在伊拉克发动的为期三周的“震慑行动”战役以“胜利”告终，但却为占领者和普通的伊拉克人打开了地狱之门。


And six months after the merciless pounding of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is as strong as it was before.

在经历了对黎巴嫩南部六个月的无情打击之后，真主党的实力并未被削弱。


Nor does the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan six years after their overthrow now seen too far-fetched.

被推翻的塔利班六年之后在阿富汗卷土重来似乎也不是空穴来风。


It is during the war after the war that the occupier’s inferiority is revealed, with constant reinforcements increasing the number of targets for the insurgents far more quickly than the occupier can adapt to the changing battlefield.

占领者的劣势在战后的战斗中暴露出来。 持续的强化部署为叛乱分子增加了目标，而占领军根本来不及适应战场形势的变化。


The insurgents in Iraq, as the British admit, were able in just three years to cope with their enemies’ technological superiority in a way that the IRA in Northern Ireland was unable to do in 30 years.

伊拉克的叛乱分子，正如英国人所承认的，仅用了三年的时间就能应对它们敌方的技术优势，而同样的应对能力北爱的爱尔兰共和军花了30年都没做到。


The Iraq war and Israel’s wars with Hamas and Hezbollah show the limits of what military power can achieve, as well as vindicate diplomacy and conflict resolution.

伊拉克战争和以色列与哈马斯及真主党的战争显示了武力的局限性，同时也证实了外交和冲突决议的作用。


When it comes to tackling complex political and cultural conflicts, forging international and regional alliances around a legitimate objective is more important than sheer military capacity.

在应对复杂的政治和文化冲突时，围绕一个合法的目的建立国际和地区性联盟比单靠武力更为重要。


That said, it would be dangerously naïve to believe that the exercise of power and the capacity to intimidate are unnecessary.

虽然如此，认为使用武力和威慑力并不必要的想法也是天真得危险。


But the objectives of the use of force need to be linked to the recognition that in today’s asymmetric conflicts, victory is no longer achieved on the battlefield.

但使用武力的目的需要与这样一个认识联系起来，即：在当今的非对称冲突中，胜利不再能够从战场上获得。


Only better-informed foreign policies that can address the genuine anxieties of civilizations in crisis will yield more sustainable results.

只有能应对处于危机中的文明的真正焦虑的，更明智的外交政策才能产生更具可持续性的成果。


A Farewell to Nuclear Arms

向核武器说再见


MOSCOW – Twenty-five years ago this month, I sat across from Ronald Reagan in Reykjavik, Iceland to negotiate a deal that would have reduced, and could have ultimately eliminated by 2000, the fearsome arsenals of nuclear weapons held by the United States and the Soviet Union.

莫斯科 — — 25年前的10月，我和罗纳德·里根在雷克雅未克面对面讨论如何削减并在2000年前彻底销毁苏俄双方恐怖核武库的事宜。


For all our differences, Reagan and I shared the strong conviction that civilized countries should not make such barbaric weapons the linchpin of their security.

尽管我俩存在诸多分歧，但均强烈同意文明社会不应该把如此恐怖的武器作为安全基石。


Even though we failed to achieve our highest aspirations in Reykjavik, the summit was nonetheless, in the words of my former counterpart, “a major turning point in the quest for a safer and secure world.”

尽管在雷克雅未克我们并未达成最高愿望，但用里根的话说，这次峰会是“探寻安全稳定世界的转折点。 ”


The next few years may well determine if our shared dream of ridding the world of nuclear weapons will ever be realized.

未来几年将决定我们让核武器从地球上消失的梦想是否能够实现。


Critics present nuclear disarmament as unrealistic at best, and a risky utopian dream at worst.

批评家指出，核裁军往好了说是不现实，往差了说纯属危险的乌托邦之梦。


They point to the Cold War’s “long peace” as proof that nuclear deterrence is the only means of staving off a major war.

他们指出，冷战的“长期和平”证明，核威慑是让大规模战争含而不发的唯一途径。


As someone who has commanded these weapons, I strongly disagree.

作为曾经弹指间就能动用核武器的人，我强烈反对这一观点。


Nuclear deterrence has always been a hard and brittle guarantor of peace.

核威慑永远只是外强中干的和平保障。


By failing to propose a compelling plan for nuclear disarmament, the US, Russia, and the remaining nuclear powers are promoting through inaction a future in which nuclear weapons will inevitably be used.

由于未能拿出完整的核裁军计划，美国、俄罗斯和其他有核国家正在用不作为把全世界引入不得不使用核武器的未来。


That catastrophe must be forestalled.

我们必须先下手为强，阻止这一灾难的发生。


As I, along with George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, Sam Nunn, and others, pointed out five years ago, nuclear deterrence becomes less reliable and more risky as the number of nuclear-armed states increases.

正如我和乔治·舒尔茨（George P. Shultz ） 、 威廉·佩里（William J. Perry ） 、 亨利·基辛格、山姆·那恩（Sam Nunn）等人五年前所指出的，随着有核国家数量的增加，核威慑变得越来越不可靠、越来越危险。


Barring preemptive war (which has proven counterproductive) or effective sanctions (which have thus far proven insufficient), only sincere steps toward nuclear disarmament can furnish the mutual security needed to forge tough compromises on arms control and nonproliferation matters.

只有真心实意拿出核裁军路线图才能制止先发制人的战争（已被证明只能适得其反）和有效制裁（从目前来看和“有效”还相去甚远 ） ， 带来共同安全感，达成关于核武器控制和核不扩散事务的艰难妥协。


The trust and understanding built at Reykjavik paved the way for two historic treaties.

在雷克雅未克建立起来的信任和理解为两大历史性条约铺平了道路。


The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty destroyed the feared quick-strike missiles then threatening Europe’s peace.

1987年的《中程核力量条约 》 （ INF）让欧洲不再担心快速打击导弹。


And, in 1991, the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) cut the bloated US and Soviet nuclear arsenals by 80% over a decade.

1991年签订的首个《战略武器削减条约 》 （ START1）在10年时间里让美苏的巨大核武库缩水了80 % 。


But prospects for progress on arms control and nonproliferation are darkening in the absence of a credible push for nuclear disarmament.

但由于缺乏可信的核裁军计划，核武器控制和核不扩散的前景令人堪忧。


I learned during those two long days in Reykjavik that disarmament talks could be as constructive as they are arduous.

我在雷克雅未克的漫长两天中了发现，核裁军谈判的成效固然甚大，但必须投入巨大的时间和精力。


By linking an array of interrelated matters, Reagan and I built the trust and understanding needed to moderate a nuclear-arms race of which we had lost control.

里根和我通过将一系列相关事件联系起来，成功建立了缓解大有失控之势的核竞赛所需要的信任和理解。


In retrospect, the Cold War’s end heralded the coming of a messier arrangement of global power and persuasion.

从历史来看，冷战的结束让全球实力和影响力局面更加混乱了。


The nuclear powers should adhere to the requirements of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty and resume “good faith” negotiations for disarmament.

有核国家必须遵守1968年《核不扩散条约》的要求，重新开始关于核裁军的“诚意”谈判。


This would augment the diplomatic and moral capital available to diplomats as they strive to restrain nuclear proliferation in a world where more countries than ever have the wherewithal to construct a nuclear bomb.

这样做能够增加外交谈判所需要的外交和道德资本，有助于在当前有实力建造核弹的国家数量前所未有地增多的情况下限制核扩散。


Only a serious program of universal nuclear disarmament can provide the reassurance and the credibility needed to build a global consensus that nuclear deterrence is a dead doctrine.

唯有真正的全球核裁军计划能够为“核威慑教条已死”的全球共识提供保障和信誉。


We can no longer afford, politically or financially, the discriminatory nature of the current system of nuclear “haves” and “have-nots.”

不管是政治上还是财政上，我们都不能让当前“有核”和“无核”体系的区别对待特征继续下去了。


Reykjavik proved that boldness is rewarded.

雷克雅未克峰会证明，果断能够带来回报。


Conditions were far from favorable for a disarmament deal in 1986.

就达成核裁军协议这件事而言，1986年我和里根所处的环境于今天根本不可同日而语。


Before I became Soviet leader in 1985, relations between the Cold War superpowers had hit rock bottom.

我于1985年成为苏联领导人时，美苏两大冷战超级大国之间的关系正处于历史冰点。


Reagan and I were nonetheless able to create a reservoir of constructive spirit through constant outreach and face-to-face interaction.

但是，里根和我仍然能够通过不断扩大的面对面互动为建设性协议创造空间。


What seem to be lacking today are leaders with the boldness and vision to build the trust needed to reintroduce nuclear disarmament as the centerpiece of a peaceful global order.

今日世界所缺乏的是具有远见卓识的果敢领导人，因此无法建立重新把核裁军置于和平的全球秩序之核心所需要的信任。


Economic constraints and the Chernobyl disaster helped spur us to action.

经济约束以及切尔诺贝利灾难曾经成为更进一步的刺激因素。


Why has the Great Recession and the disastrous meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan not elicited a similar response today?

如今，大衰退和福岛核电站事故为什么就不能造成类似的结果？


A first step would be for the US finally to ratify the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

第一步是美国最终批准1996年《全面禁止核试验条约 》 （ CTBT ） 。


President Barack Obama has endorsed this treaty as a vital instrument to discourage proliferation and avert nuclear war.

奥巴马总统已表态支持这一对阻止核试验、预防核战争来说至关重要的工具的条约。


It’s time for Obama to make good on commitments he made in Prague in 2009, take up Reagan’s mantle as Great Communicator, and persuade the US Senate to formalize America’s adherence to the CTBT.

奥巴马是时候兑现2009年在布拉格许下的承诺了，继承里根“伟大沟通者”的衣钵，说服美国参议院正式批准美国加入CTBT。


This would compel the remaining holdouts – China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan – to reconsider the CTBT as well.

美国的入局能迫使其他拒绝加入CTBT的国家 — — 中国、埃及、印度、印尼、伊朗、以色列、朝鲜和巴基斯坦 — — 重新考虑自己的决定。


That would bring us closer to a global ban on nuclear tests in any environment – the atmosphere, undersea, in outer space, or underground.

���这又能让我们在迈向全面禁止全球核试验 — — 不管是地面、海底、外太空还是地下 — — 的道路上更进一步。


A second necessary step is for the US and Russia to follow up on the New START agreement and begin deeper weapons cuts, especially tactical and reserve weapons, which serve no purpose, waste funds, and threaten security.

第二大必须步骤是美俄签署新的战略核武器削减条约（New START ） ， 深入落实核武器的销毁工作，特别是战术核武器和储备核武器，它们根本起不到什么作用，只能浪费资金、威胁安全。


This step must be related to limits on missile defense, one of the key issues that undermined the Reykjavik summit.

这一步骤必须与导弹防御限制 — — 雷克雅未克峰会就是败在它手上 — — 联系起来。


A fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT), long stalled in multilateral talks in Geneva, and a successful second Nuclear Security Summit next year in Seoul, will help secure dangerous nuclear materials.

签订一份禁止生产核裂变材料条约（FMCT，自日内瓦多边谈判以来一直停滞不前）以及明年首尔成功举行和安全峰会将有助于叫停危险核原料的生产。


This will also require that the 2002 Global Partnership, dedicated to securing and eliminating all weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical, and biological – is renewed and expanded when it convenes next year in the US.

这也要求明年在美国举行的致力于叫停和销毁所有大规模杀伤性武器（核武器、化学武器和生物武器）的2002年全球伙伴（Global Partnership）计划重新启动并扩大规模。


Our world remains too militarized.

世界仍然处在过度军事化的状态。


In today’s economic climate, nuclear weapons have become loathsome money pits.

在当今的经济气候中，核武器已成为令人厌恶的资金黑洞。


If, as seems likely, economic troubles continue, the US, Russia, and other nuclear powers should seize the moment to launch multilateral arms reductions through new or existing channels such as the UN Conference on Disarmament.

照目前来看，如果经济困境继续下去，美国、俄罗斯和其他有核国家应该抓住机会，通过联合国核裁军会议等已有或新启渠道推出多边核武器削减计划。


These deliberations would yield greater security for less money.

这样的动议能够以更低的经济代价带来更大的安全。


But the buildup of conventional military forces – driven in large part by the enormous military might deployed globally by the US – must be addressed as well.

但常规军事力量的建设 — — 大部分是因为美军的全球部署所致 — — 也应该有所抑制。


As we engage in furthering our Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement, we should seriously consider reducing the burden of military budgets and forces globally.

既然我们都参与了深化欧洲常规力量（CFE）安排，我们就应该认真考虑削减全球军事预算和军事力量负担。


US President John F. Kennedy once warned that “every man, woman, and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment.”

美国总统肯尼迪曾警告“每个人，不管男人、女人还是儿童，都生活在核达摩克利斯之剑之下，千钧之重系于一发，随时随地都有可能发断剑落。


For more than 50 years, humanity has warily eyed that lethal pendulum while statesmen debated how to mend its fraying cords.

”50多年来，人类时时刻刻都在战战兢兢地看着性命之所系的发丝，而政客却在为如何修复发丝的磨损而吵个不可开交。


The example of Reykjavik should remind us that palliative measures are not enough.

雷克雅未克的教训表明，姑息迁就是解决不了问题的。


Our efforts 25 years ago can be vindicated only when the Bomb ends up beside the slave trader’s manacles and the Great War’s mustard gas in the museum of bygone savagery.

只有当核弹被锁进陈列人类野蛮历史的博物馆，与奴隶贸易者的镣铐和一战的芥子气为伍时，我们在25年前的努力才能够被证明没有白费。


Affirmative Action for Europe

平权欧洲


The violence in France, fueled by staggering unemployment and ruthless policing, reflects the utter failure of the French model of social integration.

高居不下的失业率和鲁莽的警察执法为法国的暴力冲突火上浇油。 这反映了社会一体化法国模式的彻底失败。


But violence elsewhere in Europe, such as the London bombings of July and the brutal murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh on the streets of Amsterdam in November 2004, had already made Europe’s failure to integrate its minorities painfully clear.

然而，发生在欧洲其它地方的暴力，例如7月的伦敦爆炸和2004年11月荷兰电影制作人在阿姆斯特丹街头被残忍地谋杀，已经用痛苦的明了方式见证了欧洲在少数族裔融合上的失败。


As the riots in France fade, French politicians are agonizing about how to proceed.

随着暴乱在法国的逐渐平息，法国的政治家们又开始为何去何从而苦恼。


Forty years ago, after legal segregation of blacks and whites formally ended in America, the United States was confronted by similar problems.

40年前，当对黑人和白人在法律上的隔离制度正式终结后，美国也面临过类似的问题。


America’s response shows, however, that integration cannot be viewed as a one-way street.

然而，美国的应对表明民族融合不能被看作是一条单行道。


In addition to imposing demands and constraints on minorities to join the mainstream, society must be willing to demand of itself that it make room for all its citizens.

除了对少数族裔加入主流社会实行法律上的保障外，社会也必须自愿为其所有的公民腾出空间。


As a potential model to be followed, Europe should look at the so-called “affirmative action” policies that America enacted to provide opportunities to blacks.

作为一种可资效仿的模式，欧洲应该仔细考察美国为给黑人提供机会而实施的所谓“平权(affirmative action ) ” 政策。


Affirmative action, or “positive discrimination,” as some have called these policies, began with university admissions.

平权，或又被称作“积极差别待遇（positive discrimination ） ” ，开始于大学录取。


But, in the early 1970’s, President Richard M. Nixon expanded the scope of affirmative action.

但是，在1970年代早期，尼克松总统扩大了平权的范围。


As a result, ethnicity began to be weighed as a positive factor not only in university admissions, but also in public procurement decisions, credit facilities for small enterprises, and government hiring.

其结果是种族划分开始被接受成为一种积极的因素。 这不仅表现在大学录取过程中，也被贯彻到了公共采购决策、对小型企业的信贷和政府雇用等方面。


The rational for affirmative action in those early years was the fact that, after a long history of systemic injustice, merely outlawing discrimination based on race or gender would not ensure equal opportunity for all.

早期平权背后的理由是：经过长期系统性的不公正，仅仅依靠将种族和性别歧视非法化还并不足以保证所有人的机会平等。


Such programs are often viewed as contradicting a basic American value, namely that admissions, lending, and hiring decisions should be based on the merits of the individual, not group distinctions.

这些政策经常被认为是有悖于基本的美国价值观，即：录取、放贷和雇用的决策应该基于个人的成绩表现，而不是种族的划分。


But they remain in existence three decades later.

但三十年后，这些政策仍然存在。


Indeed, leading American companies, like General Motors, General Electric, and Walmart, have created affirmative action programs for hiring and selecting suppliers at their own initiative.

的确，如通用汽车、通用电气和沃尔玛等领导性的美国公司都已创立了自身在人员雇用和供货商选择方面的平权政策。


Similarly, anchormen and anchorwomen from all ethnic backgrounds populate American television news programs.

同样，美国的电视新闻节目中有很多来自各种族裔背景的男女主播。


In France, by contrast, the appointment of the black anchorwoman Audrey Pulvar was big news on its own, because most of her colleagues in France are white.

相比之下，在法国，黑人女主播奥黛丽•布尔瓦的任命本身就是一条大新闻，因为她的大多数法国同事都是白人。


Affirmative action in the US has been effective in creating a large African-American middle class.

美国的平权在建立一个庞大的非洲裔美国人中产阶级方面卓有成效。


The percentage of black households earning over $50,000 a year (adjusted for inflation) has more than tripled over the last four decades, from 9.1% in 1967 to 27.8% in 2001.

在过去的40年里，年收入超过5万美金（计入通胀因素）的黑人家庭的百分比增长了三倍多，从1967年的9.1%增加到2001年的27.8 % 。


Indeed, in the US, more people of color and women hold top jobs in the public and private sector than anywhere else in the world.

的确，在美国的公私领域身居高位的有色人种和女性数量超过了世界上任何其它地方。


The fact that a large black underclass remains – something the recent floods in New Orleans revealed in a horrifically dramatic way – is mainly the result of failing school systems.

而庞大的黑人下层阶级仍然存在的事实—被最近的新奥尔良洪水以惊人的戏剧性方式暴露出来—主要是每况愈下的学校体系造成的。


Affirmative action programs, of course, have always been vulnerable to attack by those who can’t benefit from them.

当然，平权政策从来就是那些不能从中获益的人的攻击目标。


In 2003, a white student asked the US Supreme Court to declare that the use of race in the University of Michigan’s admission policies violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment of the US Constitution.

在2003年，一位白人学生要求美国最高法院宣布密歇根大学在招生政策中使用种族标准违反了美国宪法第十四条修正案中的《平等保护条款 》 。


The Supreme Court, however, ruled that the program was constitutional, citing a “compelling state interest” in racial diversity.

但最高法院裁决认为该政策符合宪法精神，并引用了种族多样性中的“强制性国家利益”为理由。


“Effective participation by members of all racial and ethnic groups in the civil life of our nation,” the court said, “is essential if the dream of one nation, indivisible, is to be realized.”

判决中说 ： “ 所有种族和民族集团的成员有效地参与我们国家的公民生活，对于一个国家不可分割的梦想的实现至关重要。 ”


In reaching its decision, the Supreme Court took into account a legal brief submitted by 60 major American businesses, led by General Motors, asking that affirmative action be upheld.

在达成该判决的过程中，最高法院还认真参考了一份由通用汽车为首的60家美国大公司呈交的法律纲要。 该文件要求维持平权政策。


They argued that the skills needed in today’s global marketplace can only be developed through exposure to a wide diversity of people.

这些公司认为，当今全球市场所需的技能只有通过族裔多样性的沟通才能获得。


Retired military officers and commanders told the court that affirmative action was essential to maintaining an integrated officer corps.

退伍的军官和指挥官告诉法院平权对于保持军官队伍的完整性���关重要。


What America’s affirmative action programs may not do is set quotas for minorities, as this prevents competition between different groups.

美国的平权政策不可能做的就是对少数族裔设定配额，因为这会妨碍不同族裔集团之间的竞争。


But, in comparing groups, it is permitted to use an individual’s status as member of an under-represented minority in his or her favor.

但在进行不同族群的比较时，该政策允许将个体的少数族群成员身份作为一项对个人有利的条件。


As a result, a university may select a black student with a satisfactory score on the admissions test, even if there is a white student with a better score.

其结果是，即使是另一个白人学生的成绩更高，大学仍可能录用一个在入学考试中成绩合格的黑人学生。


From the current French viewpoint, however, laws and regulations based on ethnicity are regarded as an unwelcome encroachment on the Republican ideal.

然而，从目前的法国观点来看，基于种族的法律和法规被认为是不受欢迎的，对共和理想的侵犯。


French President Jacques Chirac vehemently opposes quotas for immigrants, out of fear that such a policy would stigmatize groups.

法国总统希拉克激烈反对移民配额，担心这样的政策会成为种族烙印。


And French businesses don’t see it as their role to solve the problems of the suburbs.

而法国的公司并不认为解决郊区的问题是他们的责任。


Moreover, French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy hasn’t done much except hand out some special grants to the smartest immigrants from the suburbs.

另外，法国内政部长Nicolas Sarkozy除了给来自郊区的最聪明的移民颁发一些特殊津贴以外也无所建树。


France does have affirmative action programs, but they address poverty, not ethnicity.

法国也有平权政策，但都是针对贫困问题，而不是族群问题。


If European politicians are serious about preventing a schism between population groups, affirmative action is essential – not only at the workplace, but also for small business loans, home loans, public procurement, and school admissions.

如果欧洲的政治家们认真地想要防止人口族群的分裂，那幺平权政策就至关重要—这不仅要体现在职场，还要体现在小额商业贷款、房屋贷款、公共采购和学校招生等方面。


Tony Blair, who in July was faced with the shortcomings of integration in the UK, should take advantage of the country’s current presidency of the European Union to make affirmative action programs the top priority at next month’s summit of European government leaders in Brussels.

在7月直面了英国民族融合中的缺陷的托尼•布莱尔，应该利用英国作为目前欧盟轮值主席国的机会，将平权政策作为下月将在布鲁塞尔举行的欧洲政府首脑峰会的首要议题。


Affordable Green Energy

我们所负担得起的绿色能源


COPENHAGEN – Public skepticism about global warming may be growing, but the scientific consensus is as solid as ever: man-made climate change is real, and we ignore it at our peril.

发自哥本哈根 — — 虽然公众对全球变暖的质疑之声日益滋长，但科学界对于该现象也达成了空前一致的共识：人为造成的气候变化时确实存在，而我们却忽视了它所造成的风险。


But if that issue is settled (and it should be), there is an equally large and important question that remains wide open: what should we do about it?

但如果这个问题能得到（也应该得到）解决的话，那么就有一个同样宏大而且重要的问题亟待解答：究竟该用什么方法解决？


One prescription that is bandied about with increasing frequency certainly sounds sensible: the world should drastically cut the amount of greenhouse gases that it pumps into the atmosphere each day.

对此有一种解决方案正日渐流行，而且听上去似乎也合情合理，那就是全世界必须大幅削减每天的温室气体排放量。


Specifically, we are told, the goal should be a 50% reduction in global carbon-dioxide emissions by the middle of the century.

具体来说，目标就是在本世纪中期将全球二氧化碳排放量减少50 % 。


Even its backers concede that achieving this target won’t be easy – and they are right.

而即便是该方案的支持者也自知达到这个目标非常不易 — — 他们是对的。


In fact, they are so right that they are wrong.

事实上，正是他们的正确导致了自身的错误。


Allow me to explain.

且听我细细道来：


Our dependency on carbon-emitting fuels is more than enormous. It is overwhelming.

如今，我们对那些排放二氧化碳的燃料的依赖何止是巨大，简直是压倒性的，太阳能，风能以及其他热炒的绿色能源目前仅占全球能源消费的0.6 % 。


For all the talk about solar, wind, and other hyped green-energy sources, they make up only 0.6% of global energy consumption. Renewable energy overwhelmingly comes from often-unsustainable burning of wood and biomass by people in the Third World.

绝大多数可再生能源都来自于第三世界人民燃烧木柴或者其他生物燃料，而且往往是不可持续地滥用。


Fossil fuels account for more than four-fifths of the world’s energy diet.

而化石燃料则占据了全世界能源总消耗量的4/5强。


So, in order to cut global carbon emissions in half by the middle of the century, we would obviously have to start getting a lot more of our energy from sources that don’t emit carbon.

因此如果要实现在本世纪中期将全球碳排放量减半的话，很显然，我们必须得从那些不排放碳的资源中获取更多的能源。


Can we do this?

我们能做到这一点吗？


According to the International Energy Agency, here’s what it would take to achieve the goal of cutting emissions by 50% between now and mid-century:

根据国际能源署的研究，要在2050年时达到50%的碳排放削减，我们必须做到以下几点：


Now consider this: this list does not describe what we would have to build between now and 2050, but what we would have to build each and every year until then!

现在再考虑一下：上面所列的可不是我们需要在未来40年间总共所需的装置，而是这40年间每年都需要建设的装置数量！


One more thing: even if we managed to do all this (which we obviously cannot), the impact on global temperatures would be hardly noticeable by 2050.

还有一点：即便我们拼死拼活把这些东西都建起来了（很显然，这是不可能的 ） ， 但到了2050年时，这一切努力对全球气温的影响几乎微乎其微。


According to the best-known climate-economic model, this vast undertaking would likely wind up reducing global temperatures by just one-tenth of one degree centigrade (one-fifth of one degree Fahrenheit), while holding back sea-level rises by only one centimeter (less than half an inch).

照最著名的气候-经济模型推算，这场大规模建设最终将把全球气温降低0.1摄氏度（约为0.2华氏度 ） ， 而海平面升高的幅度也只会减少1厘米（不到半英寸 ） 。


That’s not a lot of bang for the buck.

这可不是一笔划算的买卖。


Indeed, the projected costs of this approach – some $5 trillion annually by mid-century – are so much greater than its likely benefits that it makes no sense to call it a solution at all.

实际上，这一套方案的预计成本 — — 大概5万亿美元一年 — — 相比其取得的效果来说是如此庞大，将其称之为“解决方案”简直就有点荒谬了。


Fortunately, there is a better, smarter way to deal with global warming.

幸运的是，我们还有一种更好，更明智的方法来应对全球变暖问题。


What if, instead of spending trillions of dollars trying to build an impossible number of power plants – or, more likely, condemning billions of people around the world to continued poverty by trying to make carbon-emitting fuels too expensive to use – we devoted ourselves to making green energy cheaper?

与其花费数千亿美元兴建无数的发电站 — — 或者刻意提高碳排放燃料的费用，不惜令全球数十亿人生活在贫困当中 — — 不如让我们一起努力，令绿色能源变得更加廉价。


Right now, solar panels are so expensive – about 10 times more than fossil fuels in terms of cost per unit of energy output – that only well-heeled, well-meaning (and, usually, well-subsidized) Westerners can afford to install them.

目前，太阳能电池板非常昂贵 — — 其能源输出成本相当于化石燃料的10倍之多 — — 只有那些富有而热心（而且往往手握大把补贴）的西方人才能用得起。


But think where we’d be if we could improve the efficiency of solar cells by a factor of ten – in other words, if we could make them cheaper than fossil fuels.

但试想，如果我们能把太阳能电池的效率提高十倍 — — 换言之，如果我��能令其比化石燃料更便宜。


We wouldn’t have to force (or subsidize) anyone to stop burning coal and oil.

那时我们根本不需要强迫（或补贴）人们停用化石燃料。


Everyone, including the Chinese and the Indians, would shift to the cheaper and cleaner alternatives – and global emission targets would automatically be met.

世界上的每个人，包括中国和印度人民，会转向这种更廉价且清洁的替代方案 — — 而全球减排目标也自动实现了。


Can we achieve this technological miracle over the next 20 to 40 years?

那么我们究竟能不能在未来20至40年间实现这一科技奇迹呢？


In a word, yes.

总而言之，可以！


The price of solar energy has been dropping steadily for 30 years – by about 50% every decade – and we could likely accelerate that decline further with sufficiently large investments in research and development.

太阳能的价格将在未来30年内稳步下降 — — 大概每10年下降50 % — —而如果有足够大量的资金投入研究的话，我们可以进一步加快下降的速度。


How large?

那么究竟要多“大量”的资金？


If we were willing to devote just 0.2% of global GDP (roughly $100 billion a year) to green-energy R&D, I believe that we could bring about game-changing breakthroughs not just for solar power, but also for a wide variety of other alternative-energy technologies.

只要投入全球年度GDP的0.2 % （ 大概1000亿美元）投入到研究当中，相信就能取得开创性的突破，而且不仅限于太阳能领域，其他各类可替代能源技术都将从中受益。


This belief in the potential of technological progress strikes some climate activists as naïve or even delusional.

我这种对技术进步潜力的信心被某些气候活动分子认为是痴心妄想。


But is it really?

这是真的吗？


Consider one of the miracles of the modern age – the personal computer.

想想当今世界的其中一个奇迹 — — 个人电脑。


These devices didn’t become household items because governments subsidized purchases or forced up the price of typewriters and slide rules.

由于政府补贴采购并强迫提高打字机和计算尺的价格，这些设备起初根本无缘进入普通家庭。


No, what happened is that, largely as a result of the space race, the United States government poured lots of money into R&D for solid-state physics and electronics engineering. The resulting breakthroughs not only got Neil Armstrong to the moon in 1969, but also made it possible for Apple to introduce the first Mac in 1976 and IBM to debut the first PC five years later.

而事实上，由于太空竞赛的缘故，美国政府投入巨资到固态物理和电子工程领域，结果不仅仅是尼尔·阿姆斯特朗1969年登月成功，同时还催生了苹果公司于1976年推出的第一台苹果电脑，以及5年之后IBM个人电脑的诞生。


We can do the same for clean energy.

这是可供洁净能源借鉴的成功先例。


Forget about subsidizing inefficient technologies or making fossil fuels too expensive to use. Instead, let’s fund the basic research that will make green energy too cheap and easy to resist.

不要再试图补贴低效率的技术或者尝试提高化石能源的价格，反过来，让我们去资助那些有助于令绿色能源更廉价，更让人难以抗拒的基础研究吧！


Afghanistan Is Lost Without Better Governance

没有更好的统治，阿富汗前途黯淡


NEW YORK – President Obama's recent trip to Afghanistan highlighted the growing American and international perception that without better governance Afghanistan will fail.

纽约 — —


As President Obama apparently made clear in his late night meeting with President Hamid Karzai, no matter what other progress is made, America and its allies cannot succeed in Afghanistan unless the Afghan government succeeds—and that government is moving in the wrong direction.

今年，在阿富汗问题上，美国阿富汗及北约盟友都取得不错的进展。


Until this changes, all other efforts will ultimately be in vain and current levels of international engagement with Afghanistan will become unjustifiable.

正在进行的玛利亚行动，逮捕了位于巴基斯坦的巴拉达尔和两名塔利班“影子内阁部长 ” ； 近期持续打击亲塔利班的哈卡尼组织等行动，都是在正确的方向上取得的胜利。


The United States and its Afghan and NATO allies have demonstrated unmistakable progress in Afghanistan this year.

但不管在其他方面的进展如何，只有阿富汗政府有效运作，美国及其盟友才能谈得上胜利 — — 但现在，阿富汗政府正在朝着错误的方向前行。


The ongoing Marja campaign, the arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and two Taliban "shadow governors" in Pakistan, and the recent drone strike hitting top leaders of the Al Qaeda-affiliated Haqqani network are all clear steps in the right direction.

只有改变方向性错误，不然所有一切的努力都是白费，国际社会的参与也就没了合法性。


President Obama has defined America's goals in Afghanistan as denying Al Qaeda a safe haven, reversing the Taliban's momentum, and helping the country's security forces and government "take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future."

美国总统奥巴马将美国在阿富汗的目标设定为：击垮基地组织老巢，阻击塔利班和帮助阿国建立安全部队及有效政府，以 “担负起阿富汗未来的领导责任。


To this end, Obama launched an 18-month military "surge" with the backing of other NATO member countries, to be followed by the beginning of withdrawal.

”为此，在北约盟友的协助下，奥巴马展开了在正式撤军之前为期 18 个月的军事行动。


To achieve these goals in such a short time, NATO and its Afghan partners must overcome three enormous obstacles.

为了在短时间内达到上述目标，北约及其阿富汗盟友必须克服三大障碍。


First, they must fight far more successfully against the Taliban to create space for rebuilding and possible negotiation.

首先，他们必须在对塔利班的战争中取得巨大胜利，以创造重建国家及和谈的可能。


Second, they must convince Pakistan to begin actively opposing the Afghan Taliban and denying them the safe haven and support they currently receive in Pakistan.

第二，他们必须说服巴基斯坦积极加入反对阿富汗塔利班的行动，消除塔利班在巴的老巢。


Third, they must support the emergence of a legitimate Afghan government that is not, unlike the current government, seen as corrupt and ineffectual by its citizens.

第三，他们必须支持成立阿富汗合法政府，而不是现任那个腐败低效的政权。


Because the NATO strategy's success requires significant progress on each of these fronts, even the current preliminary signs of military progress and in Pakistan's relations with the Afghan Taliban will be for naught if Afghanistan's government cannot establish its legitimacy domestically.

北约战略成功来自于全方面的成功。 如果阿富汗无法建立合法政府，那么，现在的军事胜利和巴基斯坦对阿塔利班的打击都会毁于一旦。


Recent efforts by President Hamid Karzai’s administration to limit its public accountability demonstrate that the Afghan government in its current form lacks either the capacity or the willingness to do so.

近期对卡尔扎伊政府的不信任显示出目前的政权缺乏能力和意愿来管理国家。


For at least a year prior to the August 2009 elections, NATO officials recognized that ordinary Afghans' disgust with their government's massive corruption was among the Taliban's most effective recruitment tools.

早在 2009 年 8 月的大选之际，北约官员就发现，普通阿富汗民众对政府大规模腐败感到厌恶，这也是塔利班征兵的一个最有效借口。


At that time, these officials argued that the elections would give Afghanistan’s leaders a clear mandate for reform.

当时，他们原指望通过大选来帮助阿富汗领导人实施改革。


The deeply discredited elections put an end to those hopes.

随后充满舞弊的大选让所有人都寒了心。


The original flaw of the 2009 elections was structural. There was no voter list, and so it was nearly impossible to prevent ballot-stuffing.

2009 年大选的失败是全面的，没有选民名单的选举很难阻止舞弊发生。


The body empowered to conduct the vote, the Independent Election Commission, was run by commissioners all appointed by and partial to one candidate, Karzai.

作为选举机构的独立选举委员会的委员，很大程度上都由卡尔扎伊任命。


One institution, the Electoral Complaints Commission—a hybrid Afghan-international oversight body with a majority vote controlled by United Nations-appointed commissioners—retained its credibility throughout the process.

由阿富汗和国际社会共同组成的选举监督委员会中大部分委员由联合国任命 — — 在选举过程中保持一定的威信。


Only the presence of the ECC, particularly its international commissioners, and the hope that it would ensure at least some fairness into the process prevented the electoral controversy from erupting into open conflict.

选举监督委员会的存在保证了选举过程上某种程度的公平，阻止选民潜在的公开冲突。


As flawed as the elections were and as contentious as the outcome ultimately was, the situation would have been far worse without the ECC.

虽然整个选举漏洞百出，但如果没有监督委员会，情况会更加糟糕。


After the election, many hoped that Karzai would recognize the need to build a more accountable government to help secure both Afghanistan's future and the future of international military and financial support.

大选之后，许多人希望卡尔扎伊能建立一个值得信任政府，确保阿富汗的未来和后期维和部队介入及国际援助的顺利展开。


In a high-profile speech in London this past January, Karzai pledged to make progress in fighting corruption and promoting government accountability.

今年 1 月，卡尔扎伊在伦敦高调讲演，承诺在反腐和推动政府诚信问题上作出努力。


Instead, the opposite appears to be happening.

但事实却是恰恰相反。


Since his London speech, Karzai has actively opposed efforts to attack official corruption, sought to appoint warlords to his cabinet, failed to promote civil society, and weakened processes aimed at increasing the representation of women in parliament.

自从伦敦讲话之后，卡尔扎伊积极反对反腐行动，把军阀引入内阁中，无法推动公民社会的建设，反对增加妇女在议会中比例的活动。


To make matters worse, Karzai issued a decree on February 13 permitting him to appoint all of the ECC's members, a measure clearly designed to strengthen the patronage system and weaken opposition movements’ prospects in future elections and a strong demonstration that his administration is not serious about establishing greater government accountability.

更有甚者， 2 月 13 日，卡尔扎伊颁布法令，让自己任命所有选举监督委员会成员。 这显然是为了强化裙带关系，以便在未来的选举中打压反对势力，这清楚地表明他对提高政府诚信视为儿戏。


NATO and the international community must do everything possible to foster accountable government at all levels in Afghanistan.

北约和国际社会必须行动起来，竭力建立一个全方位的可信政府。


Although Afghanistan's government does not need to be fully centralized, Afghanistan cannot succeed if the central government fails.

虽然阿富汗政府不能完全集权，不过，如果中央政府失灵，人民也就不会幸福。


For this reason, unless the Karzai government changes course there is no justification for NATO member countries to risk the lives of their soldiers and commit other valuable resources to the struggle in Afghanistan if the Afghan government’s corruption and legitimacy deficit make current progress unsustainable and achievement of NATO’s goals impossible.

所以，除非卡尔扎伊作出改变，积极反腐，否则，北约盟国没有必要让自己的士兵冒险和向阿提高宝贵的资源。


Karzai is free to lead his country as he pleases, but America and its allies cannot and should not maintain their current levels of commitment unless his government can establish itself as a viable partner.

卡尔扎伊可以按照自己的意愿领导国家，不过，除非现任政府能成为有效的合作伙伴，否则美国及其盟友不能，也不应该保持自己的承诺。


The 18-month clock is ticking.

18 个月最后期限的倒计时已经开始。


No Exit from Afghanistan

阿富汗没有出路


NEW DELHI – Despite frequent turmoil and repeated invasions, Afghanistan has remained virtually unchanged for centuries.

新德里—尽管动乱频仍并一再被侵略，但几百年来阿富汗几乎没有任何变化。


Nearly 120 years ago, Winston Churchill described the futility of warfare in the region: “Financially it is ruinous.

近120年前，温斯顿·丘吉尔这样描述在该地区发动战争的无用性 ： “ 财政上这是灾难。


Morally it is wicked.

道德上这是邪恶。


Militarily it is an open question, and politically it is a blunder.”

军事上这不确定。 政治上这是大错。


Churchill’s assessment undoubtedly rings true for many United States and NATO officials today, as they attempt to coordinate an exit from America’s longest overseas combat commitment in history.

”毫无疑问，丘吉尔的评价对当今许多美国和北约官员来说是正确的警钟 — — 他们正在组织从美国为时最长的海外战斗中联合撤军。


While the war in Afghanistan may have resulted in fewer American deaths and injuries than previous US wars, the human cost remains substantial – especially after factoring in Afghan deaths and injuries.

阿富汗战争造成美军伤亡人数比前几场战争都要少，但人力成本仍然非常巨大 — — 特别是在考虑到阿富汗方面的伤亡后。


Moreover, trillions of dollars have been wasted, with the few positive effects of the US-led military intervention already beginning to fade, and its many adverse consequences continuing to destabilize the region.

此外，数万亿美元被浪费，美国领导的军事干预所造成的少得可怜的积极效果已开始消失，副作用倒是在继续动摇该地区。


US President Barack Obama is now trying to negotiate a new “status of forces” agreement with the Afghan government in order to establish how many US troops will remain in Afghanistan and the terms of their deployment.

如今，美国总统奥巴马在试图与阿富汗政府谈判新的“驻军地位”协议，以确定多少美军将留驻阿富汗以及他们的部署问题。


But the reality is that the US is scuttling from a conflict that it has lost, just as it did in Vietnam almost 40 years ago, leaving the beleaguered population to its own devices.

但现实是美国从冲突中败北遁走，一如近40年前的越南，任其走后被包围的群众自生自灭。


Rather than admit defeat, US officials are resorting to diversionary rhetoric.

美国官员不承认失败，反而再次祭出了转移注意力的把戏。


For example, speaking recently in New Delhi, Secretary of State John Kerry said that the key to stabilizing Afghanistan is to build a “new silk road” connecting it with central Asia – a cynical contrivance apparently aimed at cloaking America’s failure in illusions of future commerce.

比如，国务卿克里在其最近的新德里演讲中表示，稳定阿富汗的关键是建设“新丝绸之路 ” ， 将它和中亚联系起来 — — 这个蹩脚的借口显然是在用未来商业幻觉掩盖美国的失败。


Kerry’s insistence that the US is not withdrawing, but “drawing down,” is a similarly transparent attempt at manipulation.

克里坚持说美国不是撤退，而是“缩编 ” ， 这也显然是文字操纵伎俩。


To be sure, America’s presence in Afghanistan has spawned important regional linkages; unfortunately, they are not the kind that support economic renewal.

毫无疑问，美国在阿富汗的存在催生了重要的地区联系；不幸的是，这些联系并不能支持经济复苏。


The last decade of war and lawlessness has facilitated the Taliban’s proliferation across Pakistan and Afghanistan, leading the Taliban to consider itself an indefatigable force – a belief that could lead its leaders to undercut any progress toward stability.

过去十年的战争和法律真空助长了塔利班在巴基斯坦和阿富汗的滋生，导致塔利班自视为不屈不挠的军事力量 — — 这样的信念可能导致其领导人破坏任何通往稳定的进程。


In fact, the Taliban’s confidence already drove them to disrupt plans for peace talks with the Afghan government.

事实上，塔利班的信心已然促使他们干扰与阿富汗政府的和平谈判计划。


After agreeing to establish an office in Qatar exclusively to host the talks, in June the Taliban opened a quasi-embassy of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.”

塔利班先是同意在卡塔尔成立一个办公室专门用来举行谈判，但在6月，他们又与“阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国”建立了准大使级关系。


The Afghan government responded by suspending talks with the Taliban, as well as the status-of-forces negotiations with the US.

阿富汗政府的反应时中止了与塔利班的谈判和与美国的军队地位谈判。


Pakistan recommends seeking an alternate venue for the negotiations with the Taliban, rather than abandoning reconciliation efforts altogether.

巴基斯坦建议寻找其他地点与塔利班谈判，而不要一股脑儿放弃协调努力。


This bodes well for the resumption of talks, given that Pakistan played a leading role in facilitating the Taliban’s emergence and is now home to the Afghan Taliban’s ruling council, including its leader, Mullah Omar, along with the Pakistani Taliban.

这对重启谈判来说是个福音，因为巴基斯坦在帮助塔利班崛起方面扮演了重要角色，也是阿富汗塔利班统治委员会（包括其领袖奥马尔）和巴基斯坦塔利班的老巢。


India’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Vivek Katju, is confident that Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s anger at the Taliban’s gambit in Qatar will not delay negotiations for long.

前印度驻阿富汗大使卡特居（Vivek Katju）信心满满地认为，阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊对塔利班卡塔尔策略的愤怒将长期推迟谈判。


(Indeed, Karzai has reportedly already met with Taliban representatives for secret talks aimed at restarting the stalled peace initiative.)

（事实上，卡尔扎伊已多次会见塔利班代表进行秘密谈判，目的是重启陷入停顿的和平计划。 ）


Katju attributes the talks’ inevitable resumption to America’s “strategic desperation,” which is so acute that the US would be unlikely even to follow through on Kerry’s pledge to call off the talks if any link to Al Qaeda were found.

卡特居认为谈判必然重启的原因是美国的“战略绝望 ” ， 这种绝望极其强烈，以至于如果找到与基地组织的联系，美国甚至不可能兑现克里取消谈判的承诺。


After all, the US has already accepted the Taliban’s unrealistic assurances that it will not use Afghanistan as a base from which to “foment trouble” – that is, execute terrorist attacks – elsewhere.

毕竟，美国已经接受了塔利班不现实的保证 — — 不会利用阿富汗作为在别的地区“挑起麻烦 ” （ 即进行恐怖袭击）的基地。


Fortunately for the US, the Taliban is no longer a homogeneous group.

对美国来说，幸事是塔利班不再是铁板一块的组织。


A decade of running and hiding from unrelenting surveillance and targeted drone attacks has caused the movement to splinter.

十年来一刻不停地与监控和定向无人机攻击捉迷藏已经造成了塔利班内部的裂痕。


Yet, as the security expert Sajjan M. Gohel has observed, “the displaced and disillusioned Taliban youth of today” have “found solace and purpose in an extremely radical interpretation of Islam.”

但是，正如安全专家高尔（Sajjan M. Gohel）所观察的 ， “ 流离失所、幻想破灭的今日塔利班青年”已经“在对伊斯兰教的极端激进的解释中找到了慰藉和目标。


The Taliban may no longer be a unified force, but they clearly remain a dangerous one.

”塔利班可能不再是团结的军事力量，但显然仍是极其危险的。


All of these developments have put India in a difficult position.

所有这些发展趋势让印度的处境极其艰难。


In Afghanistan, America’s military was so tactically dependent on Pakistan that, on several occasions, the US encouraged India to curtail development projects, such as rebuilding Afghanistan’s infrastructure.

在阿富汗，战术上美军极其依赖巴基斯坦，在不少情形中，美国还鼓励印度削减开发项目，如阿富汗基础设施的重建。


Following America’s military withdrawal, Afghanistan will most likely revert to pre-war conditions; Pakistan will revive state-sponsored terrorism against India; and extremism will spill into the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.

美军撤退后，阿富汗极有可能回到战前状态；巴基斯坦国家支持的针对印度的恐怖主义将复兴；极端主义���溢出波及印度查默邦和克什米尔邦。


In order to make the best of a grim situation, India must be prepared to protect its own interests at all costs.

为了尽量减轻不利情形，印度必须做好不惜一切代价捍卫自身利益的准备。


After all, as the US extricates itself from its Afghan quagmire, its own national interests will continue to trump all other considerations.

毕竟，随着美国从阿富汗泥沼中脱身而出，其自身国家利益将继续压倒其他一切考虑。


But China, Pakistan, and Iran also have their own important national-security interests in Afghanistan that each will now do their utmost to guarantee.

但中国、巴基斯坦和伊朗也有其重要国家安全利益在阿富汗，它们都会竭尽全力维护这一利益。


So, while US troops may be leaving Afghanistan, an end to the violence spawned by America’s war remains nothing more than a distant dream – especially for Afghanistan’s South Asian neighbors.

因此，早美国军队可能离开阿富汗的同时，而由这场美国战争而形成的暴力平息局面也将化为一场泡影 — — 特别是对阿富汗的南亚邻国来说。


Afghanistan’s Customary Anguish

阿富汗陋习所带来的痛苦


FARAH, AFGHANISTAN – When the problems riddling Afghan society are listed – violence, insecurity, corruption, religious fundamentalism – one dominating factor is usually left out: the influence of customary law.

阿富汗法拉赫 — — 在历数暴力、危险、腐败、原教旨主义等诸多困扰阿富汗的谜题时，人人往往遗漏了一个起决定作用的因素：那就是习惯法的影响。


In Afghanistan, there are three principal legal references:  constitutional law, the Koran, and the system of customary law known as Farhang, the most dominant and strictest version of which is called Pashtunwali (the way of the Pashtuns).

当前影响阿富汗的主要有三大法律体系：宪法、古兰经和被称为Farhang的习惯法。 而在习惯法中，最重要也最严格的版本当属普什图法（Pashtunwali ） 。


Originally an ancient honor code, Farhang ensures the dominance of the oldest male of any household, followed by married sons, unmarried sons, and grandsons, then wives (with the youngest at the bottom).

Farhang起源于古老的荣誉守则，目的是确保家庭控制权掌握在最年长的男子手中。 接下来掌握决策权的依次是已婚儿子、未婚儿子、孙子和妻子（最年轻的排在最末 ） 。


Collective decisions are taken by patriarchs in councils called jirgas, where all have to be in agreement.

集体决策由jirgas委员会中的长老做出，所有人都必须服从他们的决策。


This agreement includes including collaborating or not with the Taliban, cooperating with the Coalition forces, accepting or refusing poppy eradication in a village.

决策内容包括是否与塔利班和联盟武装合作，还包括接受或拒绝在村子里铲除罂粟。


Everything else is left to patriarchal discretion.  Here, no one will intervene except to reinforce the application of  the patriarch's rights – say, in stoning a supposedly wayward girl, or turning a blind eye to so-called “honor killings” of women.

所有事务的生杀大权均由族长们掌握。 除巩固族长权利外任何人无权干涉 — — 比方说用石块砸死一个任性胡为的女孩，或者对女性所谓的“荣誉杀戮”熟视无睹。


Every act of an Afghan male’s life is integrated in a form of reciprocity, in which nothing is free.

阿富汗男性生命中的一举一动均包含某种形式的互换，没有什么东西是不付出代价就可以得到的。


Melmastia, the basic tenet of hospitality means “I will give you shelter if you ask me to, even if you are a fugitive murderer; but, in exchange, you fight my battles.”

Melmastia（互惠互利）是人际交往的基本原则，它意味着“即使你是亡命天涯的杀人凶手，只要来求我帮助我也会为你提供栖身之所，但交换条件是，你必须为我战斗。


This sense of customary obligation is why so many of President Hamid Karzai’s cronies remain in place and Taliban leaders remain safe.

”这种约定俗成的责任意识就可以解释为什么哈米德·卡尔扎伊总统的那么多亲信依然在位，也可以解释塔利班领导人为什么仍然安全。


Women are excluded from collective decision-making, as they are mere objects.

女人被排斥在集体决策的过程之外，因为她们不过是没有思想的物品。


Girls are literally sold upon marriage (the father is paid money for his daughter’s labor and reproductive capacity) and join their husband’s household.

女孩在结婚时基本上是待价而沽（父亲能为自己女儿的劳动和生育能力而得到报酬 ） ， 并在婚后进入丈夫的家族。


The younger the girl, the higher the price.

越年轻的女孩售价就越高。


Marriage, especially in the provinces, is routinely consummated on pre-pubescent bodies.

尤其是在阿富汗所属各省，结婚的通常都是尚在青春期的女孩。


Yet women are precious in their own way.

但女性也有女性的宝贵之处。


A family’s principal “cultural capital” is its honor, which is ensured by denying women any opportunity to highlight male failings and therefore tarnish clan respectability.

一个家族主要的“文化资本”是家族的荣耀，而保护家族荣耀必须确保不让女性有任何机会指出男性所犯的错误、从而玷污家族的名望。


As a result, women must be strictly secluded and made invisible when in public, for they are personally responsible for the desire that they could ignite in schools, hospitals, parks, or markets.

因此，必须让女性彻底与世隔绝，不在公众场合抛头露面，因为女性出现在学校、医院、公园或市场可能点燃的欲望都要由她们自己负责。


The all-covering burqa ensures sufficient anonymity to permit women a certain amount of freedom in public space.

把浑身上下包裹得严严实实的长袍可以很好地隐藏她们的身份，让她们一定程度上能在公共场所自由活动。


Every female simultaneously carries her father’s and her husband’s honor, and will stoically submit to all forms of violence committed in its name.

每位女性同时肩负着父亲和丈夫的荣耀，对于所有以上述名义强加的暴力都必须无条件的服从。


This may mean dying in childbirth rather than risking the “dishonor” of giving birth in a public place, a hospital, in front of strangers.

这或许意味着她们必须选择宁愿在生孩子的时候死去，也不能甘冒受辱的危险去医院这样的公共场所接受陌生人的帮助。


Going to court is practically unheard of, as it would mean renouncing family practices.

上法院更是几乎闻所未闻，因为这意味着放弃家族决定权。


From the male point of view, resorting to outside police or judicial intervention would signify an inability to fight one’s own battles – an admission of defeat and a symbolic castration.

从男性的角度看，求助于外来的警察或司法力量意味着没有能力独立作战 — — 这等同于承认失败并接受象征性的阉割。


This helps explain the intense corruption present in Afghan courts, where “honor” can be redeemed by bribing a judge to have a rapist or murderer released.

这有助于解释阿富汗法院存在的严重腐败现象，人们相信可以通过贿赂法官释放强奸或杀人犯来赎回“荣耀 ” 。


As violence is strictly a private matter, relinquishing justice to state institutions could be an unacceptable humiliation.

因为暴力纯属于私人事务，将裁决权拱手让给国家机构可以成为一种令人无法忍受的耻辱。


Customary law is not rigid in that it is made to fit round the demands of global economy.

习惯法在最初诞生时并不死板，因为它需要适应全球经济发展的需求。


It has become more rigorous in it s applications due to the influence ofmilitant Islam, which seeks to use religious texts to legitimize escalating brutality, especially against women.

后来在执行上越来越僵化死板主要是受到伊斯兰好战主义的影响，好战份子试图借助宗教教义来实现暴力升级、特别是使针对妇女的暴力合法化。


However, Farhang and privatized violence are precisely what Mohammad sought to ban through Koranic law, which went beyond the personal domain and instituted a code that gave some rights to women.

但是，Farhang和个人暴力正是默罕默德希望通过古兰经法律禁止的行为，它已经超越了私人事务领域，制定了一部法规，并将某种形式的权利赋予了女性。


For example, while the Koran allows for a measure of female inheritance, tribal custom does not authorize it, which explains the popularity of tribal councils to resolve inheritance problems and cheat women out of their rights.

比方说，尽管古兰经允许对女性的继承权进行考量，但部族惯例对此却并不认可，这也可以解释为什么靠欺骗妇女放弃继承权来解决继承问题在部族委员会如此盛行。


Similarly, whereas the Koran requires four eyewitnesses as proof of adultery, mere suspicion of some unregulated, potentially sexual conduct by a woman warrants stoning under customary law.

同样，古兰经规定必须有四名目击证人才能证实通奸罪，但仅仅怀疑一名女性可能发生过违法性行为就足以按照习惯法的规则对其处以石刑。


Yet an awareness of alternatives is seeping in through the media, even in remote provinces.

但即使是在最边远的省份，对于替代性选择的认识也正透过媒体逐渐地向人们渗透。


Iranian films and the much loved Indian TV serials, not to mention the occasional American film, influence peoples' expectations.

伊朗影片和备受喜爱的印度连续剧，更不要说偶尔上映的美国电影都在潜移默化地影响着人们的看法。


Add to that the experience of having lived abroad as refugees in Pakistan and Iran.

曾经在巴基斯坦和伊朗的难民生活经历也起到同样的作用。


Girls know that there are options to an unacceptable way of life: women are increasingly demanding more from life than what custom ordains.

女孩们知道除接受无法容忍的生活方式外还有其他选择：在习俗规定的范围外，女性对生活提出了越来越多的要求。


This is especially true for those who have lived in Iran, a totally Muslim environment that allows women the freedom to study and work as well as access to adequate healthcare and family planning.

那些曾经在伊朗生活的人尤其如此，那里虽然是纯而又纯的穆斯林环境，但却允许妇女自由地学习和工作，也可以享有充分的医疗和计划生育保障。


Once back in rural Afghanistan, forced into brutal marriages, many desperate women – especially returnees from Iran – resort to self-immolation.

一旦返回到阿富汗农村，被迫接受野蛮的婚姻，许多绝望的女性 — — 特别是从伊朗回国的女性 — — 宁愿选择自我毁灭的道路。


Violence and murder of women are on the increase, perpetrated by men who feel that these alternatives pose a threat to their authority.

针对妇女的暴力和谋杀呈上升趋势，因为犯罪的男性感到这些选择对他们的权威构成了挑战。


The West imagines that religion is the central issue in Afghanistan.

西方人普遍认为宗教是阿富汗问题的核心。


But the heart of the matter is the preservation of ancient patriarchal rights that go back to Biblical times, reformatted to fit the demands of globalized capitalism.

但问题的症结所在是保留了可以追溯到《圣经》时代的古老的宗族权利，上述宗族权利只是进行了某些调整来适应全球化资本主义的要求。


Governments and international aid organizations have failed to take into consideration the role of Farhang, perhaps because the power of unwritten law remains largely inconceivable in the West.

政府和国际援助机构尚未将Farhang的作用纳入考虑，也许因为多数西方人无法理解不成文法律的力量。


But Afghanistan cannot begin to solve its many problems until it criminalizes the privatized violence of this antiquated code.

但在惩罚这项古老规则引发的私人暴力之前，阿富汗的许多问题都无法得到解决。


Afghanistan’s Drug-Friendly Environment

阿富汗适宜毒品的环境


Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai has stepped up international fundraising efforts in recent weeks, seeking a fresh package of military and reconstruction aid from the United States, together with stronger strategic guarantees.

阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊（Hamid Karzai）最近几周加强了国际筹款活动，向美国寻求新的一系列武器和重建援助以及更强的战术保障。


But Karzai’s relationship with his sponsors has begun to sour, in part owing to charges that his government has failed to stop the resurgence of Afghanistan’s huge opium trade.

但是卡尔扎伊与其资助人之间的关系已经开始恶化，一部分原因是由于他的政府未能阻止阿富汗大规模的鸦片贸易的兴起。


Underlying the opium trade issue is a security threat of another kind, one overlooked since the US-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime in 2001, despite the grave risk it poses to Afghanistan’s long-term stability, and that of the region.

隐藏在鸦片贸易问题下面的是另外一种安全威胁，尽管这个问题对阿富汗以及该地区的长期稳定造成了严重威胁，但是自2001年美国为首发动入侵并颠覆塔利班政权以来，它从来没有被重视过。


In countries like Afghanistan, where 80% of the population lives on what they grow and many communities live far from any water source, environmental damage can be both economically devastating and politically momentous.

阿富汗国内80%人口以种植业为生，许多村落居住在远离水源之处，在这样一个国家里，环境的危害不仅会造成经济恶化，也会给政治带来严重影响。


That lesson should have been absorbed and understood, not least by American strategists, long before the Taliban’s fall.

在塔利班垮台以前，人们就应该吸取并记住这个教训，尤其是美国的战略家。


After all, desertification and deforestation helped fuel the rise, two decades earlier, of the Maoist guerilla group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) in Peru.

毕竟，沙漠化和森林采伐促成了二十多年前秘鲁的毛泽东主义游击队Sendero Luminoso（光辉道路）的崛起。


Sendero, which supplemented its income with drug production and timber smuggling, deliberately chose drought-weakened and deforested mountain villages as the stronghold of its insurgency.

Sendero靠种植毒品和走私木材补充收入，刻意选择那些久经干旱、采伐过度的山地村庄作为他们叛乱的根据地。


Similarly, the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, which has claimed 10,000 lives, exploits the desperation of mountain villagers hit by flash floods – the result of deforestation higher up.

同样，导致10,000多人丧生的尼泊尔毛泽东主义叛乱使得那些遭受骤发洪水袭击的山地村民彻底绝望，骤发洪水正是高地森林采伐的结果。


No Maoist group could ever gain a toehold in Afghanistan’s parched Pashtun south (these were, after all, people who, bare-knuckled, smashed the Soviets).

没有毛泽东主义团体可以在阿富汗南部普什图族（Pashtun）干裂的土地上获得立足之地（毕竟这些人曾经赤手空拳击溃苏联 ） 。


But the Taliban’s rapid rise in the 1990’s was inextricably linked to the failure of irrigation systems.

但是上世纪九十年代塔利班的迅速壮大与灌溉体系的失败不无关系。


Villagers whose crops shriveled and whose livestock died in a prolonged drought saw joining the Taliban as an economic opportunity.

村民们的庄稼在一场持续干旱中枯萎、牲口也大批死亡，他们把加入塔利班看作一个改善经济的机会。


Had there been more irrigation, the Taliban’s gains might have been far less impressive.

如果有更多的灌溉的话，塔利班所占有的也许就远没有那么令人印象深刻。


The Taliban are now an increasingly spent force, but lack of water reinforced the logic of opium production across its former strongholds in the south.

如今，塔利班已是强弩之末，然而水源的缺乏更使它难以维系它在前南方大本营的鸦片生产流程。


Irrigation has failed or is inadequate in Helmand, Uruzgan, and Kandahar – three of the top five opium-producing provinces – where indebted farmers are hooked by the economics: opium brings in eight times as much cash as wheat and uses less water.

在灌溉失败或不足的赫尔曼德、Uruzgan和坎大哈 — — 五大鸦片生产大省中的三个 — — 负债累累的农民受到经济利益的诱惑；鸦片带来的收入是种植小麦的八倍，并且用水更少。


Without serious investment in irrigation, including construction of reservoirs to make use of the snowfall in the Hindu Kush, and in new cash crops such as saffron and rose oil, Afghanistan’s drift toward narco-statehood will continue, with all the instability that this implies.

如果缺乏对灌溉系统的大力投资，包括建造水库以充分利用兴都库什（Hindu Kush）的降雪，并投资种植新的诸如藏红花和玫瑰油等经济作物，阿富汗将随着由此引发的种种不稳定性，逐渐成为一个毒品之国。


Clear-cutting of old growth forests in the mountains bordering Pakistan may prove as problematic.

巴基斯坦山区边界滥砍滥伐老熟森林的做法受到质疑。


Agriculture there has been damaged by the cutting of walnut, apricot, and mulberry trees for winter fuel, and by a failure to replant poplar, willow, and tamarisk – the trees that hold fragile meadows in place.

由于为获取冬天的燃料而砍伐核桃树、杏树和桑树，同时又未能重新种植那些能够紧抓松弛地表土壤的白杨树、柳树和西河柳，当地的农业已经遭受重创。


These sorts of trees can be restored, given a concerted campaign and investment in nurseries to produce local varieties.

如果人们齐心协力，投资培育开发本地树木品种，这些种类的树木就能重新恢复。


Loss of the ancient cedar, pine, fir, and oak forests on the slopes above is another matter.

山坡上的古杉木、松树、枞树和橡树林的消失是另外一个问题。


This year’s snowmelt caused landslides and flooding – a warning of more soil erosion and destruction of arable land to come; hundreds died and thousands lost their livelihoods.

今年的雪融水引发了山崩和洪水 — — 这是更多土壤遭受侵蚀以及耕地将被大量破坏的警告；数百人丧生于此，成千上万的人失去了生计。


Forestry has always been a problem in Afghanistan.

阿富汗的森林一直是一个棘手问题。


In 1960, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization spoke of wasteful logging practices, such as “head-skidding” (in which a log is rolled downhill, ripping up plants and soil).

1960年，联合国食品和农业组织（FAO）谈到了不经济的伐木行为，例如“ 木头滚滑法（head-skidding ） ” （即将木头滚下山去，同时将树木带着土壤连根拔起 ） 。


Aerial photographers were called in, and a large budget was set aside.

航空摄影师被召来拍摄照片，结果预算被取消了。


But, in 1976, the FAO admitted in a new plan that forest and watershed management activities had “turned out to be quite limited.”

但是1976年FAO在一项新计划中承认森林和水流域的管理行动“十分有限 ” 。


The 1976 plan called for sustainable logging and basic forest-fire control, but war intervened, costing Afghanistan half its forest cover.

1976年计划呼吁可持续发展地伐木以及森林火灾的基本控制，但是战争爆发使阿富汗失去了一半的森林土地。


Up to 60% of the old growth forest in Nangahar, the second largest opium-producing province, may have been cut during the war years.

第二大鸦片生产省楠阿哈省（Nangahar）有达60%的土地是老熟林，但它们在战争期间被砍伐一空。


Mujahedin factions and later the Taliban exported stands of fine-grained cedar by the truckload from Nangahar and surrounding provinces to Pakistan, often in return for arms.

圣战组织的派系以及后来的塔利班用货车从楠阿哈省及周边地区向巴基斯坦出口品种优良的杉木，经常以此交换武器。


Illegal logging continues today, with only ineffectual efforts made to stop it.

直至今日，由于没有有效措施，非法伐木仍在继续。


At the current rate, Afghanistan’s old growth forest could vanish within a decade.

按照目前的速度，阿富汗的老熟林将在十年内消失尽贻。


The UN acknowledges the problem but is (rightly) unwilling to risk sending forestry experts into a tribal region where American and allied troops venture only in armored convoys.

联合国认识到了这个问题，但是却不愿意冒风险将森林学专家派往一个连美国及其联军只有在武装护卫的情况下才敢冒险涉足的偏远部族地区。


Safety concerns and cost also limit intervention by international conservation organizations.

安全问题及成本问题限制了国际保护组织的介入。


A new initiative called the Green Corps includes 300 forest rangers charged with stopping illegal logging, and the ministry hopes to boost their numbers within a year. But the initiative is unlikely to have much effect.

一项新的称之为绿色团体（Green Corps）的计划包括了300名负责阻止非法伐木的森林巡逻员，并且政府希望在一年内增加巡逻员人数。


Illegal logging crews number 200 or more.

但是这个计划看起来并不太可能有效。


They have chain saws and trucks. They are armed and work with the backing of drug and emerald smugglers – and often of local officials.

非法伐木队共计200余人，他们有锯子和卡车，他们全副武装，并在毒品和翡翠走私者（通常是当地官员）的支持下工作。


The price of plank cedar in Lahore is incentive enough to corrupt, or kill, any Green Corps men brave enough to stand in their way.

厚杉木在拉合尔（Lahore）的价格之高足以让他们去贿赂或杀害任何一个绿色团体中敢挡他们路的人。


Environmental issues are of paramount importance in marginal countries because their impact on human survival is immediate and direct.

环境问题对边缘国家十分重要，因为它对人类生存具有立竿见影的直接影响。


The inadequate response to pressing questions of natural resource management, whether of water or trees, merely strengthens the hands of opium dealers and malcontents in what is already the most disaffected and sensitive part of Afghanistan – the clear-cut mountain slopes where intelligence officers believe Osama bin Laden is most likely holed up.

若对紧迫的自然资源管理问题 — — 不管是水资源还是森林资源的管理问题反应措施不当，就只会在砍伐一空的山坡地带 — — 阿富汗本已充斥不满情绪和最敏感的地带，加强鸦片商人和不满分子的力量。 情报官员相信那里是奥萨马·本·拉登最有可能洗劫的地方。


Afghanistan’s Feminist Revolution

阿富汗的女权主义革命


On April 16, more than 300 Afghani women – many of them students – marched together in Kabul in protest of a new law passed by Parliament that would impose a series of Taliban-like restrictions on women.

4月16日，300多名阿富汗妇女 — — 其中有不少是学生 — — 在喀布尔举行联合游行，抗议议会通过一项新的法律，将一系列塔利班式的限制强加给女性。


The law would permit marital rape, limit women’s movements – say, for work or study – without male permission, and even make it illegal for a woman to refuse to dress as her husband wishes.

这项法律允许婚内强奸行为，限制在没有得到男性许可前提下女性的行动 — — 比如工作或者学习，甚至将女人拒绝像丈夫希望的那样穿衣打扮规定为非法。


The women, facing a crowd of furious men calling them “whores” and other epithets, marched two miles under a rain of abuse and delivered their petition against the law to legislators.

这些妇女面对着用“妓女”和其他侮辱性绰号辱骂她们的愤怒的男人，在一片谩骂声中游行了两英里，向议员们表达了她们对这部法律的不满。


Both houses of Parliament had approved the law, and President Hamid Karzai signed it.

议会上下两院都已经通过了这部法律，哈米德·卡尔扎伊总统也已经签字批准。


The law now affects only the Shia minority, but threatens to affect pending legislation that could restrict the rights of non-Shia women as well.

这部法律目前只影响到什叶派少数族裔，不过或许会影响到可能限制非什叶派妇女权利的即将表决的法案。


When Western media sought quotes from the women, they frequently heard a Western-style feminist refrain: “These laws would make women into a kind of property.”

当西方媒体采访游行妇女的时候，他们经常会听到与西方式女权主义类似的观点 ： “ 这部法律会把女人变成一种财产。


In the West, the counterpoint to the notion of woman as property has been a highly individualistic demand for personal autonomy – decision-making based primarily on a woman’s own wishes, rather than as wife, mother, community member, or worshipper.

”在西方，把女人当作财产的说法对应着高度个性化的个人自主权要求 — — 即按照妇女自身的愿望做出决定，而不顾及她作为妻子、母亲、社会成员或宗教信徒的社会角色。


But, while some Western feminist insights may be useful to Afghani women and other women in the developing world as they resist certain forms of male oppression, we should not assume – as Western feminists often have – that our job is to proselytize “our” feminism.

不过尽管某些西方女权主义观点可能有助于阿富汗和其他发展中国家女性抗拒特定形式的男性压迫，但我们不应当想当然地认定 — — 就像西方女权主义者常干的那样 — — 我们的任务是让“我们的”女权主义者改变她们的观点。


On the contrary, the feminism expressed by women such as these Afghani heroines should educate us in the West about our own shortcomings.

恰恰相反，阿富汗女主人公们表达的女权主义思想应当教育西方人认识到自身的弱点。


The core theory with which emerging feminists in more traditional and religious societies are working is far different from that of Western feminism – and in some ways far more profound and humane.

在传统并信奉宗教的社会中新兴的女权主义核心理论与西方的女权主义差别很大 — — 从某种角度来讲前者的人性化和深刻程度远远超过了后者。


In India, for example, feminists articulated to me a vision of women’s equality that was family-centered rather than self-centered, and that valued service to community rather than personal gratification.

比如在印度，女权主义者们向我阐述的女性平等理念更偏重于以家庭而不是以自我为中心，她们更看重的是对社会的贡献而不是个人的满足感。


They did not see their struggle as a cultural or ideological clash between men and women, but rather as a very practical effort to live free from violence and sexual assault, forced child marriage and bride-burning, and legal exclusion from parity.

她们并没有把自己的斗争看作是男女之间的文化或意识形态冲突，而恰恰看成是使自己避免暴力和性侵害、被迫早婚和焚妻、以及法律不平等的一项实际的工作。


The emerging consensus in India in support of greater rights and freedoms for women, while certainly causing some upheaval and adjustment (especially within the growing middle classes) has not yet – and might never – poison the basic trust and warmth between men and women.

刚刚在印度兴起的支持扩大妇女自由和权利的共识尽管注定会带来某些动荡和调整（特别是在日益壮大的中产阶级内部这种变化无法避免 ） ， 但还没有 — — 或许永远也不会 — — 损害男女之间最基本的信任和温暖。


Nor does it seem likely to emulate the splintered, individualized, solitary society – and the commodified sexual revolution – that Western, self-based feminism reflects.

它似乎也不会步分裂、个性化、孤独社会 — — 以及西方自我中心的女权主义所反应的商业化性解放的后尘。


This version of feminism – the notion that women can claim equality and still have a valued role in the home, prize family above all, and view rights in the context of community and spirituality – seems like a much-needed corrective to some of Western feminism’s shortcomings.

此类女权主义版本 — — 女性有权要求平等但仍然在家庭中体现价值、把家庭利益放在首位、并以社会和精神为背景来看待权利的理念 — — 似乎是某些西方女权主义缺点迫切需要的修正手段。


Ideally, men’s drive for progress in the developing world would also evolve, uniting the idea of the autonomous self with support for family, community, and other ties, and Western men would learn from this as well.

理想情况下，发展中国家男性的进步动力也会不断变化，将自主权和支持家庭、社会及其他关系的理念融合在一起，而且西方男性也会从中得到学习和提高。


Moreover, intellectually, these women remind us that Western feminism did not have to evolve the way it did, and can still change and grow to embrace a more satisfying and humane definition of equality.

此外，从理智的角度讲，这些妇女提醒我们西方女权主义不一定非要按照既有的方向发展，我们仍然可以对其进行修改和完善，从而使之贴近更令人满意、更具人情味的平等定义。


Simone de Beauvoir, whose seminal book The Second Sex laid the groundwork for post-war Western feminism, was an Existentialist who was neither a wife nor a mother nor a woman of faith.

西蒙·德·波伏娃的著作《第二性》奠定了战后西方女权主义的基础，是一种既非妻子又非母亲亦非信徒的存在主义者形象。


So her work naturally posited female freedom in a secular, solitary, and individualistic context, in which “freedom” means pure autonomy rather than integration within a whole – comprising family, community, and even God – on equal terms.

因此她的著作自然而然地把女性自由置于一种世俗、孤立和个人主义的背景之下，其中的“自由”意味着纯粹的自主而非在平等的前提下与家庭���团体甚至是上帝组成的统一体的融合。


The good news for all women, East and West, is that President Karzai, under intense international criticism – and not just Western criticism – changed the law less than one week after the march.

对东西方妇女的好消息是卡尔扎伊总统在严厉的国际批评下 — — 这样的批评言论不只来自于西方 — — 在游行结束不到一周后就修改了这项法律。


This global uproar is a testament to how three decades of Western feminist challenges to leadership have changed the world for the better.

这次国际动荡证明了三十年来西方女权主义者对领导权的挑战怎样让世界向好的方向发展。


But our (Western) moment of feminist leadership is over now – for good reasons.

但我们（西方）把持女权主义领导地位的时代已经结束了 — — 而且之所以这样也有充分的理由。


We know by now what our problems are as women in the West, and we know the blueprint for solving them.

我们现在知道西方女性的问题在哪里，而且也已经清楚解决之道。


What we lack now is not analysis, but the organizational and political will to do so.

我们现在缺乏的不是分析，而是切实执行的组织和政治意愿。


So the leadership role is shifting to women in the developing world.

因此领导权已经转移到发展中国家的妇女手中。


Their agenda is more pressing, and their problems, frankly, far more serious than ours, which makes it much more urgent for them to develop theories appropriate to the challenges they face.

她们的任务更加紧迫，而且坦率地讲，她们的问题比我们严重得多，因此她们迫切需要发展与所面临挑战相适应的理论。


If one of those courageous Afghan women who marched in Kabul wrote – as I hope she or one of her sisters in the developing world is doing right now – the seminal text for the next 50 years on non-Western feminism, it would no doubt be equality-driven and practical.

如果某位参与喀布尔游行的勇敢的阿富汗妇女写出 — — 就像我希望她或她在发展中国家的某位姐妹正在做的那样 — — 今后50年非西方女权主义的根本性文字，那么它毫无疑问将来自于平等的驱动并的确切实可行。


And perhaps, in its likely view of the world as being more than the sum of consuming, competing autonomies, or gender warfare, it would be a valuable challenge to truisms that we Western feminists – and the men who love us – have thought we had to take for granted.

而且也许，在她们把世界看作消耗、竞争自主权或性别战争的可能的见解中，它将成为对我们西方女权主义者 — — 以及热爱我们的男人 — — 曾经认为我们必须看作理所当然的真理的一次有价值的挑战。


Afghanistan’s Opium War

阿富汗的鸦片战争


When NATO leaders meet for their summit in Riga at the end of this month, there will be a ghost at the feast: Afghanistan’s opium.

北约领导人本月底在里加召开首脑会议之时，将有一个魔鬼在会议徘徊，那就是阿富汗的鸦片问题。


Afghanistan is in danger of falling back into the hands of terrorists, insurgents, and criminals, and the multi-billion-dollar opium trade is at the heart of the country’s malaise.

阿富汗正处于陷入恐怖份子、叛乱份子以及罪犯手中的危险，而几十亿美元的鸦片交易则是这个国家病症的核心所在。


Indeed, NATO’s top general, James Jones, has called drugs the “Achilles heel” of Afghanistan.

确实，北约总司令琼斯把毒品称为阿富汗的致命弱点。


This year’s record harvest of 6,100 tons of opium will generate more than $3 billion in illicit revenue – equivalent to almost half of Afghanistan’s GDP.

今年6100吨鸦片收成将会产生超过30亿美元的非法收入，几乎相对于阿富汗国民生产总值的一半。


Profits for drug traffickers downstream will be almost 20 times that amount.

下游毒贩的利润将几乎是这个数目的20倍。


Opium money is corrupting Afghan society from top to bottom.

鸦片收入正在从上到下腐蚀阿富汗社会。


High-level collusion enables thousands of tons of chemical precursors, needed to produce heroin, to be trucked into the country.

高层勾结使得数以千吨用于制造海洛因的化学前体运入该国。


Armed convoys transport raw opium around the country unhindered.

武装运输队在境内运输鸦片如入无人之境。


Sometimes even army and police vehicles are involved.

有时，连军队和警察也卷入其中。


Guns and bribes ensure that the trucks are waved through checkpoints.

武器和贿赂确保卡车得以通过检查站。


Opiates flow freely across borders into Iran, Pakistan, and other Central Asian countries.

鸦片剂大摇大摆地越境进入伊朗、巴基斯坦以及其他中亚国家。


The opium fields of wealthy landowners are untouched, because local officials are paid off.

由于买通了当地官员，富有地主们的鸦片种植地无人敢碰。


Major traffickers never come to trial because judges are bribed or intimidated.

法官们受贿或者受到恐吓，因此毒贩头子们从来都是逍遥法外。


Senior government officials take their cut of opium revenues or bribes in return for keeping quiet.

政府高官抽取鸦片收入或者贿赂以保持缄默。


Perversely, some provincial governors and government officials are themselves major players in the drug trade.

某些省长以及政府官员竟然也是毒品贸易的主要经营者。


As a result, the Afghan state is at risk of takeover by a malign coalition of extremists, criminals, and opportunists.

结果，阿富汗国家处在被极端份子、罪犯以及投机主义份子等组成的邪恶联盟接管的危险之中。


Opium is choking Afghan society.

鸦片正在令阿富汗社会窒息。


Within Afghanistan, drug addiction is rising.

在阿富汗境内，越来越多的人在吸毒。


Neighbors that used to be transit states for drugs are now major consumers, owing to similar dramatic increases in opium and heroin addiction.

由于鸦片和吸食海洛因，过去是毒品中转地的地方现在成为了主要的消费地。


Intravenous drug use is spreading HIV/AIDS in Iran, Central Asia, and the former Soviet Union.

使用注射毒品正在伊朗、中亚以及前苏联传播艾滋病。


In traditional Western European markets, health officials should brace for a rise in the number of deaths from drug overdoses, as this year’s bumper opium crop will lead to higher-purity doses of heroin.

在传统的西欧市场，由于今年鸦片作物丰收将会导致更高纯度剂量的海洛因，卫生官员将会遇到由于吸毒过量而造成的死亡数量的上升事件。


What can be done?

如何对付呢？


First, the veil of corruption in Afghanistan must be lifted.

首先，必须揭开阿富汗的腐败面纱。 阿富汗人对于傲慢而又受到武装保护的大亨们已经不耐烦了。


Afghans are fed up with arrogant and well-armed tycoons who live in mansions and drive top-of-the range Mercedes limousines – this in a country where barely 13% of the population have electricity and most people must survive on less than $200 a year.

他们身居豪宅，驾驶顶级的奔驰豪华轿车。 而在这个国家中，只有13%不到的人口拥有电力，大多数人必须靠每年200美元不到的收入过活。


It is time for the Afghan government to name, shame, and sack corrupt officials, arrest major drug traffickers and opium landlords, and seize their assets.

现在，阿富汗政府应该点名、羞辱并且解雇那些贪官，逮捕主要的毒贩和鸦片地主，并且没收他们的资产。


Donors have trained police and prosecutors and built courts and detention centers.

捐助国家们已经培训了警察、检察官，并且建造了法院和拘留中心。


Now it is up to the government to use the judicial system to impose the rule of law.

现在，政府应当使用司法体系来实施法治。


It will be difficult, but not impossible, to re-establish confidence in the central government.

重新建立对中央政府的信心将会是困难的，但并非不可能。


Putting major drug traffickers behind bars at the new maximum-security prison at Pul-i-Charki, near Kabul, would be a good start.

把主要的毒品贩子关进靠近喀布尔的波尔-伊-查基的新的最高安全戒备的监狱将会是一个良好的开端。


Of course, Afghanistan does not bear sole responsibility for its plight.

当然，阿富汗人对其灾难并不承担所有的责任。


The heroin trade would not be booming if Western governments were serious about combating drug consumption.

如果西方国家政府严肃打击毒品消费，那么，海洛因交易就不会猖獗。


It is a bitter irony that the countries whose soldiers’ lives are on the line in Afghanistan are also the biggest markets for Afghan heroin.

具有令人心酸的讽刺意味的是，那些向阿富汗派遣随时都有生命危险的士兵的国家同时也是阿富汗海洛因最大的市场。


Furthermore, Afghanistan’s neighbors must do more to stop insurgents, weapons, money, and chemical precursors from flowing across their borders into the country.

而且，阿富汗的邻国必须多做工作，以制止反叛人员、武器、金钱以及化学前体跨境进入该国。


Coalition forces should take a more robust approach to the drug problem.

联合部队应当对毒品问题采取更为强硬的手段。


Counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics are two sides of the same coin.

反叛乱和反毒品是一个问题的两个方面。


Improving security and the rule of law must include destroying the opium trade.

改善安全以及法治必须包括摧毁鸦片交易。


Allowing opium traffickers to operate with impunity gives them a free hand to raise money to pay for the arms and fighters battling the Afghan army and NATO forces.

允许鸦片贩子肆无忌惮就让他们无所顾忌地筹款来支付军火以及同阿富汗和北约军队作战的份子。


The United Nations Security Council has authorized the International Security Assistance Force to take all necessary measures to fulfill its mandate.

联合国安理会已经授权国际安全援助部队采取所有必要的手段来实现其使命。


NATO troops should be given the green light to help the Afghan army fight opium – destroy the heroin labs, disband the opium bazaars, attack the opium convoys, and bring the big traders to justice.

应当授权北约部队帮助阿富汗军队与鸦片作战，即摧毁海洛因实验室，解除鸦片集市，袭击鸦片运输队，并且把大毒贩绳之以法。


And they should be given the tools and manpower to do the job.

而且，应该给他们必要的装备和人员来完成使命。


There is no point in trying to win the hearts and minds of major drug traffickers.

试图赢得主要毒贩的欢心是没有用处的。


Farmers are a different story.

农民们则另当别论。


Forced eradication risks pushing farmers into the hands of extremists, and thus will not lead to the sustainable reduction of opium fields.

强制毁田有可能把农民们逼入极端份子手中，从而不会导致鸦片地可持续的减少。


Indeed, as we have seen in some Andean countries, it can be counter-productive.

实际上，正如我们在某些安达斯国家所见到的那样，这样做可能会适得其反。


Therefore, security and development must go hand in hand.

因此，安全和发展必须并举。


To achieve this, Afghanistan needs more development assistance.

为了实现这一目标，阿富汗需要更多的国际援助。


International support so far has been generous, but it is still well below per capita equivalents for other post-conflict situations – and the need is much greater.

目前为止，国际支持是慷慨的，但是，还是远远低于其他战后形势的人均水平，而且，需求更大。


Farmers will be weaned off opium over the long term only if they have sustainable livelihoods.

农民们只有具备了可以持久的生计才能长久地脱离鸦���。


At the moment, Afghanistan’s drug lords are prospering, and rural communities are suffering.

目前，阿富汗的大毒枭们为所欲为，而农村社区则奄奄一息。


That situation needs to be reversed.

这一局面必须得到扭转。


We must punish the traffickers and reward the farmers.

我们必须惩治毒贩而奖励农民。


We cannot afford to fail in Afghanistan.

我们无法在阿富汗失败。


Recent history has given us graphic evidence of what would happen if we do.

最近的历史生动地告诉我们失败的结局是什么。


But any solution in Afghanistan depends on eliminating its opium.

但是，任何阿富汗的解决之道都取决于消除其鸦片。


Afghanistan’s Terrorized Women

暴力威胁下的阿富汗妇女


KABUL – Recently, the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) office in Kudoz province reported the rescue of a young woman who had been imprisoned in her in-laws’ dungeon for seven months.

发自喀布尔 — — 最近阿富汗独立人权委员会（AIHRC）在库都兹省（Kudoz）的办事处报告了一起营救事件。


Fifteen-year-old Sahar Gul was forced to marry an older man who serves in the Afghan army. She was then kept in the dungeon by her husband’s family and brutally tortured for months, because she refused to work as a prostitute.

年仅15岁的莎哈尔·古尔（Sahar Gul）先是被迫嫁给一名年纪比她大的阿富汗军人，随后又被夫家人强迫卖淫，她不从，于是就被锁在地牢里残酷虐待了整整七年，直至被营救出来。


Over the past ten years, the AIHRC has received more than 19,000 complaints related to violence against women.

在过去十年间，委员会收到了超过1.9万件与虐待妇女有关的申诉。


Despite making some progress in investigating the complaints and referring them to the justice system, as well as in raising public awareness about the issue, the challenges remain huge.

尽管在调查这些申诉并移交司法机关的提升了公众对该事务关注度方面取得了一些进展，但我们所面对的挑战依然非常艰巨。


Since 2002, many efforts have been made to improve women’s lives in Afghanistan.

自2002年以来，各界在改善阿富汗妇女待遇方面作出了许多努力。


The country has enacted several new laws and established a fairly advanced legal framework to end discrimination against women, including a new law that criminalizes any act that results in violence against women.

国家也颁布了一系列新法并建立了一个相当先进的法律框架来结束对妇女的歧视，其中包括一部能将任何针对妇女的暴力行为定罪的法律。


But laws and policies alone are not sufficient to protect women from horrific domestic abuse.

但仅靠法律和政策并不足以保护妇女免遭残酷的家族虐待行为。


Indeed, the Gul case is hardly the only well-publicized case.

事实上，上面那宗案件只不过是曝光率最高的一个。


There was also Gulnaz, a young woman who was jailed for adultery after being raped by a relative (she was recently released after a presidential pardon, but may be forced to marry her attacker).

还有一名叫古尔纳兹（Gulnaz）的年轻妇女在遭到亲戚强奸之后竟以通奸罪名入狱（虽然她最近得到总统特赦，但仍可能被迫要和强奸者结婚 ） 。


The husband of another young woman, Aisha, cut off her nose and ears when she ran away.

而另一位叫阿莎的妇女试图从家里逃走，却被其夫捉回来残忍地割掉了鼻子和双耳。


Violence against women in Afghanistan persists for many reasons. First, the country has inherited a patriarchal tribal tradition that assumes women’s inferiority.

而针对妇女的暴力行为之所以在阿富汗屡禁不止，是由许多原因的：首先，该国继承了一个男权部落传统，认为女性就是低人一等，并因此剥夺了女性的基本权利和自由。


Second, there is a strong political incentive to deprive women of their rights.

其次，在政治上也存在强大的诱因去剥夺女性的权利。


Radical groups receive immense support from the large share of the population that opposes women’s rights.

有极大数量的民众反对给于妇女权利，而这些人同时又为那些极端组织提供了强大的支持。


The Taliban, for example, have consistently used an anti-women policy to appeal to tribal and rural people.

例如塔利班组织就一直利用一套压制妇女的政策来吸引部落和农村地区的民众。


Third, family pride and honor are deemed more important than a woman’s individual well-being and safety.

第三，有些人把家族荣誉看得比妇女个人的幸福和安全更加重要。


For example, if family members beat or abuse a woman, she has few options.

如果其他家庭成员虐打了家族中的一名妇女，她有几个选项。


Often, her only choice is to remain silent or risk disgracing the family.

一般情况下，她只能在忍气吞声和令家族蒙羞之间选择。


If she does report the matter to the authorities, the case will almost certainly never be properly investigated, nor the perpetrators ever prosecuted.

如果该名妇女把情况报告给了当局，这个案件几乎不会被认真调查，施暴者也不会被起诉。


Gul, for example, complained to the police about her abusive in-laws, but she was returned to the family when some of their influential contacts intervened.

比方说在古尔一案中，古尔将自己所遭受的暴行报告给了警察，谁知在夫家认识的某些权势人物介入后，警察竟又把她送回了夫家。


Fourth, laws are often arbitrarily applied, and sharia (Islamic law) frequently takes precedence over civil legislation, resulting in widespread impunity for crimes of violence against women.

其四，法律往往无法得到彻底执行，伊斯兰教法又经常凌驾于民法之上，使得那些针对妇女的暴力或罪行得以逍遥法外。


For example, in October 2010, the Afghan Supreme Court ruled that women who run away from home can be charged with prostitution, unless they go to the police or an immediate relative's home. It is this mindset that led to Gul’s victimization.

例如2010年10月阿富汗最高法院裁定：除非前往警察局或者直系亲属的家，否则逃离家庭的妇女将以卖淫罪论处。


Finally, while the Taliban lost power ten years ago, discrimination and violence against women has occurred in Afghan society for centuries.

最后，当塔利班政权在十年前倒台之时，对妇女的歧视和暴力已经在阿富汗存在了几个世纪之久。


Thus, despite some progress, public and official sensitivity to violence against women is only slowly emerging.

尽管目前取得了一些进步，公众和官方对这些事件的敏感度也只是缓慢建立之中。


The Afghan government must take several steps to protect women fully.

因此阿富汗政府必须采取一系列步骤去彻底保护妇女权益。


Above all, perpetrators of violence against women should be prosecuted and tried under due process of law.

其中最重要的莫过于要将这些针对妇女的暴力行为予以起诉并在恰当的法律程序下进行审判。


This will require strengthening the rule of law and ending the prevailing culture of impunity.

这就要求强化法治并消灭当前这种有罪不纠的文化。


That, in turn, requires educating the public further about human rights and women’s rights through school textbooks, continuing education courses, and a vigorous media campaign.

这反过来要求通过教科书，继续教育课程和大型媒体宣传活动来进一步向公众传达关于人权和妇女权利的知识。


It also requires persuading representatives and policymakers to develop policies and allocate budget revenues to combat violence against women, and training police and judges to handle cases of violence against women without deferring to claims of family honor.

同时也需要说服民意代表和政策制定者们去制定相关政策并拨出预算来打击暴力虐待妇女的行为，训练警察和法官摒除所谓家族荣誉的影响，秉公处理相关案件。


Perhaps most importantly, non-constitutional justice systems, such as sharia, must be monitored and checked, if not prohibited altogether.

而或许更重要的是，要么将类似伊斯兰教法这样的非宪政司法系统全面禁止，要么对其进行检讨和修订。


As for Sahar Gul, her case must be thoroughly investigated, and the police and judiciary must commit to bringing her torturers to justice.

对于莎哈尔·古尔来说，她的案件必须得到彻查，警察和法官必须尽全力将那些虐待她的人绳之于法。


Furthermore, Gul’s case, and others like it, should be studied in order to understand the roots of such crimes.

此外也必须对这些案件进行研究以辨清这类犯罪的根源。


Until Afghanistan’s leaders begin to address this problem seriously, our country will continue to bear the scar of violence against women on its face.

除非阿富汗领导人们开始认真处理这个问题，否则我们这个国家将继续因虐待妇女的罪行而蒙羞。


A Flat World and a Round Ball

平面世界和圆的足球


With the final stage of the World Cup approaching, now is a good opportunity for a mid-tournament appraisal.

世界杯最后阶段的比赛正在临近，现在是作出赛中评论的好时机。


This year’s Cup, unlike the previous one in Japan and South Korea in 2002, didn’t witness any real upsets in the first round.

今年的世界杯与2002年上一届韩日世界杯不同，并没有在第一轮出现大冷门。


Switzerland and Australia surprisingly reached the elimination round, and the Asian and African teams disappointed somewhat, with only Ghana advancing.

瑞士和澳大利亚进入十六强令人惊讶，而亚洲和非洲球队则多少令人失望，只有加纳队晋级。


There have been just two ugly matches so far, full of fouls, nasty attacks, and unnecessary aggression, as well as numerous yellow and red cards: Italy vs. the US, and Portugal vs. the Netherlands.

目前为止，只有两场比赛，也就是意大利对美国和葡萄牙对荷兰丑陋不堪，充满犯规、下流的攻击、毫无必要的侵犯以及漫天飞舞的红黄牌。


Otherwise, we’re experiencing a wonderful Cup in Germany, in terms of both sportsmanship and the overall atmosphere.

否则，我们正在体验一届无论是从体育角度还是整体气氛都是美妙的德国世界杯。


As for Germany and the Germans, one hardly recognizes one’s own country and people.

至于德国和德国人，人们几乎不认识自己的国家和同胞。


Even Mother Nature has played along.

即使是大自然母亲也随人意。


After a long winter and a non-existent spring, summer started promptly with the first kick-off – and virtually overnight, Germany has flaunted its sunniest and most delightful side.

经过了漫长的冬天和稍纵即逝的春天后，随着首场比赛的开始，夏天即刻来临，而且几乎是一夜之间，德国呈现了最为阳光明媚和快乐的一面。


The weather is Mediterranean, and all of a sudden, so are the people.

天气是地中海式的，而且连人也奔放。


The Cup’s organization has been exceptional (as was to be expected), with excellent police work giving hooligans hardly a chance.

本届世界杯赛的组织工作是出类拔萃的（正如预料的一样 ） ， 警方的出色工作让足球流氓们无计可施。


The whole of Germany has been celebrating a never-ending party with guests from all over the world (which was not expected).

德国全国都在与来自五湖四海的宾客们一道庆贺这场不散的聚会（这是没有预料到的 ） 。


And the German team has put on a wonderful display of heart warming and modern offensive soccer (which nobody could have expected!).

而德国队则展现了令人暖人心的现代攻势足球（这是没有人预料到的！ ） 。


More importantly, not only in the German team, but also in the country as a whole, a young, cool, laid-back, and carefree Germany is raising its head – a Germany that is cosmopolitan, friendly, and good-humored.

更为重要的是，不仅仅是德国足球队，而且是整个国家都在以一个年轻、帅气、悠闲以及无忧无虑形象昂首阔步，也就是汇纳百川、友善以及风趣幽默。


Years of bad news appear to have passed the Germans by without a trace.

多年来的坏消息看起来已经过去，没有给德国留下痕迹。


Doctors are on strike, taxes are on the rise, the parties in government are mauling each other, and Chancellor Angela Merkel herself proclaimed in a prominent speech that the country is in disastrous shape.

医生正在罢工，纳税正在上升，联合政府的各党派在相互抨击，德国总理默克尔本人则在一场重要演讲中宣称国家大事不好。


But the Germans, undaunted by it all, simply keep celebrating one great soccer party with their newfound friends from all over the world.

但是，德国民众对此毫无兴趣，只是继续和来自五湖四海新结交的朋友们一道庆贺这一足球盛会。


The black, red, and gold German tricolor adorns the entire country as never before, but almost nowhere are there nationalist undertones.

德国国旗的三色黑、红和金色从来没有像现在这样在全国到处飘扬，但是，没有地方出现民族主义的意味。


In fact, the flags of many nations fly alongside German.

实际上，许多国家的旗帜与德国国旗一同飘扬。


In Berlin, as in other large German cities, taxis sport the flags of their drivers’ home countries – from Angola to Saudi Arabia.

在柏林以及其他德国大城市，可以看到出租车司机们展现祖国的国旗，从安哥拉一直到沙特阿拉伯。


Fans don not just their nations’ flags, but also fantastic costumes evocative of their home countries’ colors.

世界各地的球迷们不仅披上他们的国旗，也披上他们各自国家颜色鲜艳的服饰。


Flags are flown in hope of victory, but also serve to dry the tears of defeat.

挥舞国旗是为了报有胜利的希望，也是为了摸去国家队被击败的泪水。


In short, Germany during the World Cup is reminiscent of a Shakespearean midsummer night’s dream, with a touch of Woodstock to boot.

总而言之，世界杯期间的德国让人想起了莎士比亚的仲夏夜之梦，还有伍德斯托克音乐节的气氛。


Outside the stadiums, public screenings of the games have become joyous mass “happenings.”

在足球场外，大屏幕的比赛转播已经成为巨大的球迷欢乐“事件 ” 。


And how is the soccer?

那么足球本身又如何呢？


This World Cup demonstrates three main developments that the sport has undergone.

本届世界杯展现了足球运动所经历的三种主要发展趋势。


First, Europe and South America are more dominant than four years ago and remain the unchallenged great powers of international soccer.

第一，欧洲和南美球队要比四年以前更为占据优势，而且保持为国际足球中无可挑战的大国。


So we must hope that the World Cup in South Africa in 2010 will finally bring greater global parity.

所以，我们必须希望2010年的南非世界杯将最终带来更大的全球性的强手林立。


Second, international soccer is witnessing the advent of a new generation.

第二，国际足球正在见证新的一代的来临。


Spain, Argentina, and Germany, to name but a few countries, have put forward very young teams that have played an impressive game.

西班牙、阿根廷以及德国推出了非常年轻的球队，令人印象深刻。 这些只是其中一些队伍。


On the French, English, and Portuguese teams, too, it is the young players that have shone – despite the continuing presence of Zidane, Beckham, and Figo.

尽管齐达内、贝克汉姆以及菲哥仍在场上，法国、英国以及葡萄牙队的年轻队员也夺人耳目。


Even the Brazilian squad is looking more aggressive and likely to score with young players like Robinho and Juninho than with their aging champions from 2002.

巴西也看起来更加富有攻势，罗比尼奥和儒尼奥尔也比2002年以来正在老迈的冠军们更有可能进球。


This generational change is accelerated by a third development.

这一世代改变由于第三个进展而加快进行。


At the top international level, soccer has become faster and more athletic, and the top teams can shrink space on the field more effectively.

在国际水平的顶级，足球变得更快，更加要求运动性，顶级球队更为有效地压缩球场空间。


A team that is unable to keep going at full speed for the full 90 (or more) minutes, switch from defense to offense quickly with the whole team, and maintain control of the ball to restrict their opponents' movements won’t stand much of a chance.

一支球队如果无法在90分钟甚至更长的时间里保持全速，迅速从防守转向进攻，并且控球限制对手的运动，那么就不会在顶级水平立足。


Here, soccer parallels today’s globalized markets, which make similar restructuring of national economies necessary.

在这里，人们可以在足球和当今全球化的市场进程之间有相似的地方。 由于全球化的市场，各国经济类似的重组十分必要。


Unlike economic globalization, however, it remains to be seen whether this new, fast-paced style of soccer will prevail (after all, the young blood of Spain lost to the Old Boys of France).

但是，与经济全球化不同的是，这一新的、快节奏足球是否能够获胜还有待观察（毕竟，血气方刚的西班牙输给了老迈的法国 ） 。


The sport and its fans will certainly profit if it does.

体育和球迷肯定都会获益匪浅。


For now, we have a World Cup filled with soccer that is being shaped by a new, young generation both on and off the playing field – light-hearted, enthralling, and beautiful to watch.

现在，这是一届由新的年轻一代在场上场下塑造的世界杯，这一代人轻松愉快、令人着迷而且美丽动人。


Let’s hope that when the last whistle blows at the final in Berlin on July 9, we Germans retain as much of this positive spirit as possible.

让我们希望，当7月9日决赛哨音在柏林吹响的时候，我们德国人能够保持尽可能多的这种精神。


Germany urgently needs this kind of optimism, because, unfortunately, two universal principles will continue to apply in the future: first, the winter will return, and, second, the ball is round and the next game is always the most difficult.

德国急需这种乐观精神，因为，不幸的是，两项原则在未来依然有效：第一，冬天将会回来；第二，足球是圆的，下一场比赛总是最艰巨的。


A Free Lunch for America

美国的免费午餐


BERKELEY – Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had a good line at the International Monetary Fund meetings this year: governments, he said, are trying to treat a broken ankle when the patient is facing organ failure.

伯克利 — — 前美国财政部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）在今年的IMF会议上颇有想象力：他说，各国政府的做法，就好比是病人明明是脏器问题，却在给他治脚踝。


Summers was criticizing Europe’s focus on the second-order issue of Greece while far graver imbalances – between the EU’s north and south, and between reckless banks’ creditors and governments that failed to regulate properly – worsen with each passing day.

萨默斯是在批评欧洲将注意力集中在希腊问题这样的次要问题上，而更危险的失衡 — — 北欧和南欧之间的失衡、鲁莽银行债权人与监管不力的政府之间的失衡 — — 却在一天比一天更严重。


But, on the other side of the Atlantic, Americans have no reason to feel smug.

但在大西洋的另一边，美国人就找不到任何自命不凡的理由了。


Summers could have used the same metaphor to criticize the United States, where the continued focus on the long-run funding dilemmas of social insurance is sucking all of the oxygen out of efforts to deal with America’s macroeconomic and unemployment crisis.

萨默斯的比方同样可以用来形容美国 — — 美国人一直把焦点放在社保的长期筹资困境上，而对美国宏观经济和失业危机视而不见。


The US government can currently borrow for 30 years at a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate of 1% per year.

当前，美国政府的30年债务真实（经通胀调整的）利率为每年1 % 。


Suppose that the US government were to borrow an extra $500 billion over the next two years and spend it on infrastructure – even unproductively, on projects for which the social rate of return is a measly 25% per year.

假设未来两年美国政府多借5000亿美元，并将这笔钱用于基础设施建设 — — 即使这些投资并非生产性的，其社会回报率只有每年25 % 。


Suppose that – as seems to be the case – the simple Keynesian government-expenditure multiplier on this spending is only two.

假设 — — 目前看来正是如此 — — 简单凯恩斯政府支出乘数 为2。


In that case, the $500 billion of extra federal infrastructure spending over the next two years would produce $1 trillion of extra output of goods and services, generate approximately seven million person-years of extra employment, and push down the unemployment rate by two percentage points in each of those years.

这样，未来两年5000亿美元的额外联邦基础设施支出将产生1万亿美元的额外商品和服务产出，创造大约700万人年的额外就业机会，将每年的失业率降低2个百分点。


And, with tighter labor-force attachment on the part of those who have jobs, the unemployment rate thereafter would likely be about 0.1 percentage points lower in the indefinite future.

此外，随着就业人口的劳动力附着效应收紧，失业率将在无穷期的未来中下降0.1个百分点。


The impressive gains don’t stop there.

可观的好处还不仅于此。


Better infrastructure would mean an extra $20 billion a year of income and social welfare.

更好的基础设施将意味着每年多产生200亿美元的收入和社会财富。


A lower unemployment rate into the future would mean another $20 billion a year in higher production.

未来更低的失业率将意味着年产量提高200亿美元。


And half of the extra $1 trillion of goods and services would show up as consumption goods and services for American households.

而额外产生的1万亿美元商品和服务中有一半会表现为美国家庭的消费品和服务。


In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter.

总结一下好处：提高现在的就业率、未来2年内产生5000亿美元额外商品和服务消费、此后每年400亿美元的额外收入流和产量增加。


So, what are the likely costs of an extra $500 billion in infrastructure spending over the next two years?

那么，未来两年内增加5000亿美元基础设施支出的潜在成本又是多少呢？


For starters, the $500 billion of extra government spending would likely be offset by $300 billion of increased tax collections from higher economic activity.

首先，5000亿美元额外政府支出可以用税收增加额抵消3000亿，这笔税收增量来自更高的经济活跃度。


So the net result would be a $200 billion increase in the national debt.

因此净结果是国民债务水平将上升2000亿美元。


American taxpayers would then have to pay $2 billion a year in real interest on that extra national debt over the next 30 years, and then pay off or roll over the entire $200 billion.

美国纳税人因此必须在未来30年内为这笔增加的债务付出每年20亿美元的真是利息，然后偿付2000亿美元本金或将债务展期。


The $40 billion a year of higher economic activity would, however, generate roughly $10 billion a year in additional tax revenue.

但是，经济活动每年提高400亿美元会产生大约100亿美元的额外税收收入。


Using some of it to pay the real interest on the debt and saving the rest would mean that when the bill comes due, the tax-financed reserves generated by the healthier economy would be more than enough to pay off the additional national debt.

用其中的一部分来支付债务的真是利息，并将剩余部分储蓄起来，这样，在债务到期时，由更健康的经济所产生的来自税收的储备将足以偿清增加的国民债务。


In other words, taxpayers win, because the benefits from the healthier economy would more than compensate for the costs of servicing the higher national debt, enabling the government to provide more services without raising tax rates.

换句话说，纳税人将是赢家，因为更健康的经济所带来的好处将补偿增加国民债务的利息成本而有余，从而使政府有能力在不提高税率的情况下提供更多的服务。


Households win, too, because they get to buy more and nicer things with their incomes.

企业也是赢家，因为商品和工人将能够使用改善的基础设施。


Companies win, because goods and workers get to use the improved infrastructure.

失业者也是赢家，因为不少人将得到工作。


The unemployed win, because some of them get jobs. And even bond investors win, because they get their money back, with the interest for which they contracted.

甚至债券投资者也是赢家，因为他们拿回了借出去的钱，而且还获得合同中规定的利息。


So what is not to like?

有什么不好的地方吗？


Nothing.

没有。


How, you might ask, can I say this?

你也许会问，我为什么这样说？


I am an economist – a professor of the Dismal Science, in which there are no free lunches, in which benefits are always balanced by costs, and in which stories that sound too good to be true almost inevitably are.

我可是个经济学家，这个“沉闷科学”的教授，在经济学看来，天下没有免费的午餐，有好处就必有相应的成本，那些听起来难以置信的好事几乎无一例外真的不是好事。


But there are two things different about today.

但今天的情况有两点不同。


First, the US labor market is failing so badly that expanded government spending carries no resource cost to society as a whole.

首先，美国劳动力市场出现了大失灵，以至于扩张的政府支出不会给作为一个整体的社会带来资源成本。


Second, bond investors are being really stupid.

其次，债券投资者在现实中是很愚蠢的。


In a world in which the S&P 500 has a 7% annual earnings yield, nobody should be happy holding a US government 30-year inflation-adjusted bond that yields 1% per year.

如今，标普500指数可以产生7%的年收益，因此理应无人问津美国政府的30年经通胀调整的债券 — — 收益率只有每年1 % 。


That six-percentage-point difference in anticipated real yield is a measure of bond investors’ extraordinary and irrational panic.

这6个百分点的预期真实收益率差额便是债券投资者不同寻常的非理性恐慌的写照。


They are willing to pay 6% per year for “safety.”

他们愿意为“安全”付出每年6%的利息。


Right now, however, the US government can manufacture “safety” out of thin air merely by printing bonds.

不过，眼下��国政府可以仅凭印债券创造“安全 ” 。


The government, too, would then win by pocketing that 6% per year of value – though 30 years from now, bondholders who feel like winners now would most likely look at their portfolios’ extraordinarily poor performance of over 2011-2041 and rue their strategy.

于是，政府也是赢家，它可以在未来30年内将每年6%的价值收入囊中。 那些现在自视为赢家的债券持有者很可能会在2011—2041年期间看到自己的投资组合表现奇差无比，为现在的策略后悔不迭。


A French Presidential Primer

法国总统引言


The late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson used to quip that “a week is a long time in politics.”

前英国首相哈罗德·威尔逊曾经说过 ， “ 从政治角度讲一个星期称得上是漫长的时光 ” 。


So, in the 30 or so weeks between now and the next French presidential election, any prediction made today could be reversed, and reversed again, before the vote.

因此，从现在开始到下一次法国总统大选到来之前的30多个星期里，今天所做的任何预测都有可能在投票前发生逆转、再发生逆转。


But two candidates have emerged as clear and constant favorites in opinion polls: Nicolas Sarkozy on the right and Ségolène Royal on the left.

但民意调查中有两位候选人一直遥遥领先：他们是右翼候选人尼古拉·萨尔柯齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)和左翼人士赛格莱娜·罗亚尔（Ségolène Royal ） 。


In fact, they have more in common than meets the eye, for each speaks of a rupture with the past while incarnating a form of continuity.

实际上，他们除了引人注目之外还有其他共同之处，那就是两个人都提出要与过去决裂，但同时要体现出某种形式的继承。


For Sarkozy, “rupture” reflects both mundanely tactical and deeply personal choices.

对萨尔柯齐来讲 ， “ 决裂”既反映了世俗的技巧，也是深层次的个人选择。


The 12 years of Jacques Chirac‘s presidency, together with France’s tradition of alternation in power, suggests a victory for the left.

雅克·希拉克（Jacques Chirac）12年执政，以及法国领导层变动的传统，都表明胜利属于左翼党派。


Positioning himself as the candidate who represents a sharp break with today’s unpopular politics is the only means to escape that fate.

将自己定位成与今天不受欢迎的政治决裂的候选人是避免厄运的唯一出路。


This is reflected in Sarkozy’s openly pro-American stance – an act of political courage in a France where anti-Americanism is running high.

这在萨尔柯齐公开的亲美立场中有所反映¾在今天反美主义甚嚣尘上的法国，采取这样的立场需要很大的政治勇气。


Sarkozy’s message is that Chirac and Villepin were right in substance to oppose America’s military adventure in Iraq, but that their style was disastrously wrong.

萨尔柯齐的立场是希拉克和维尔潘反对美国军事入侵伊拉克在实质上并没有错，但在形式上却错得一塌糊涂。


Thus, his deep admiration for “American values,” while sincere, implies no embrace of President George W. Bush.

因此，他对“美国价值观”的深层崇拜尽管是真心流露，但却不意味着乔治·W·布什总统的所作所为能得到赞同。


It also reassures the French business community, which was shocked by Dominique de Villepin’s flamboyant opposition to the United States when he was Chirac’s foreign minister.

萨尔柯齐的立场还给法国企业界人士吃下了定心丸，这些企业家被多米尼克·德维尔潘担任希拉克外长时与美国的公然对抗吓出一身冷汗。


At home, Sarkozy has aimed his message particularly at the young, issuing a patriotic call to the values of work and discipline, a counter-revolutionary revolution.

在内政方面，萨尔柯齐把重点放在了青年人身上，力求唤起他们的爱国热情，建立勤于工作和遵纪守法的价值观，这是一场反对革命的革命。


The revolution that must be overcome is that of May 1968, whose leaders and supporters, according to Sarkozy, may have lost politically to de Gaulle, but deeply weakened France over the succeeding decades with their emphasis on “false values.”

必须杜绝1968年5月革命那样的灾难，因为在萨尔柯齐看来，这场革命的领导者和支持者或许在政治上输给了戴高乐，但他们所强调的“错误价值观”却在接下来的几十年内大大削弱了法国的力量。


By contrast, rebelling against one’s parents’ generation and rediscovering traditional moral stances will save France – a message that is highly applicable to issues, such as education and immigration, that may dominate the electoral campaign.

与此形成鲜明对照的是，反对父母那一代的观点，重新发掘传统的道德准则能够拯救法国¾这样的观点对教育和移民等问题都大有裨益，而上述问题在竞选活动中占据了主导地位。


In the case of Royal, the meaning of “rupture” is both more obvious and more visible.

在罗亚尔看来 ， “ 决裂”的含义更加明确和清晰。


She is seeking to become the first woman President of the French Republic.

她试图成为法兰西共和国历史上首位女性总统。


To achieve her goal, she prefers to emphasize her “essence,” thereby countering Sarkozy’s stress on his record as a “doer.”

为了达到这一目的，她更愿意强调自己的“本质 ” ， 并以此来对抗萨尔柯齐的所谓“实干家”履历。


Her appeal to voters is simple: “I am a woman, and you have never tried a woman, so be modern and try one now.”

她吸引选民的口号非常简单 ： “ 我是个女人，你们从来没选过女总统，现在就应该跟上潮流，试试女总统的执政能力。 ”


Hiding behind the originality (in French presidential politics) of her gender, Royal has avoided specifying a detailed program.

躲在其性别（在法国总统政治中）的原创性背后，罗亚尔一直闪烁其辞，不愿说明详细的施政计划。


When challenged by inquisitive journalists demanding greater precision about her policy agenda, her highly effective line of defense (so far!) has been: “You would not dare to ask me such a question if I were not a woman!”

当喜爱刨根问底的记者对她的政治安排的细节提出质疑的时候，她最有效的防御手段（至少到目前为止）是 ： “ 如果我不是位女性，你根本就不敢提出这样的问题！ ”


Thus, Royal’s program is her popularity.

于是，人气就成了罗亚尔的法宝。


In foreign policy, one can only guess what her priorities would be.

我们只能猜想她在外交上将做出何种安排。


As far as Europe is concerned, she seems as “agnostic” as Sarkozy, who, like her, incarnates a new generation of “post-European” leaders.

在欧洲问题上，她似乎和萨尔柯齐一样讳莫如深，而后者和她一样，是新一代“后欧洲”领袖人物的代表。


In terms of values, Royal, too, seems to represent a rupture with May 1968, with her emphasis on discipline and family.

在价值观方面，罗亚尔似乎也提倡与1968年5月革命决裂，而她着重强调的是法纪和家庭。


According to public opinion polls, Royal is the clear favorite of the left and the only candidate able to defeat Sarkozy.

民意测验的结果显示，罗亚尔显然受到左翼党派的青睐，是唯一有可能击败萨尔柯齐的候选人。


Her support is particularly strong among women voters.

女性选民对她的支持尤为热烈。


For the Socialist Party, which is eager to return to power but has not yet recovered from the humiliating defeat of Lionel Jospin in the first round of the presidential election in 2002, the question is whether it can afford to resist the wave of favorable public opinion behind Royal.

对于急于重新当选而又尚未从2002年利昂内尔·若斯潘（Lionel Jospin）首轮选举即惨遭淘汰的屈辱经历中恢复元气的社会党来说，真正的问题在于它是否敢于对抗罗亚尔身后民意支持的洪流。


In the opinion of Royal’s many opponents among Socialist leaders and militants, the dominance of the media in the political process is leading to mediocrity: the qualities required to be elected are becoming nearly incompatible with those needed to govern.

在社会党和军界中罗亚尔的许多反对者看来，政治过程中媒体的主导地位已经导致政治日渐平庸：当选所需要的品质几乎与执政需要的品质格格不入。


According to Royal’s Socialist critics, the “Hollywoodization” of politics from which she benefits entails a new approach in which leaders follow and followers lead.

在罗亚尔的社会党批评者看来，令她受益匪浅的政治“好莱坞化”带来一种崭新的局面：那就是领导人哗众取宠，而普通公众反倒成了主角。


But the same criticism can be directed at Sarkozy.

但同样的批评也可以指向萨尔柯齐。


Moreover, both candidates embody continuity – with Chirac’s Gaullist side for Sarkozy and with François Mitterrand for Royal – as much as rupture.

不仅如此，两位候选人都在与过去决裂的同时，体现了政策的延续性¾萨尔柯齐���承了希拉克和戴高乐的政策，而罗亚尔则接过了弗朗索瓦·密特朗(François Mitterrand) 的社会主义衣钵。


Royal openly claims Mitterand’s legacy as she searches for legitimacy, while Sarkozy’s rejection of Chirac’s legacy has more to do with form than substance.

罗亚尔在确立合法地位时公开声称要继承密特朗的事业，而萨尔柯齐对希拉克证见的排斥形式要远远大于实质内容。


To a large extent, Sarkozy can be seen as Chirac with more, whereas Royal is clearly Mitterrand with less.

在很大程度上萨尔柯齐比希拉克更有能力，而罗亚尔则显然比密特朗逊色许多。


When the voters decide in the spring of 2007, their choice may depend more on negative than positive considerations, as it did in 2002, when Chirac faced the odious nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round.

选民们在2007年春做出最后决定的时候，决定因素也许更多地来自负面、而不是正面的印象，这一点与2002年第二回合选举中希拉克面对臭名昭著的民族主义分子勒庞（Jean Marie Le Pen）时如出一辙。


As in 2002, the winner next year will be whomever the electorate dislikes or fears less.

与2002年时一样，明年获胜的将是选民们不那么憎恶和害怕的候选者。


But one way or the other, personalities will prevail over programs.

但无论是谁最终当选，有一点可以肯定，那就是个性因素将成为凌驾于政治见解之上的决定性力量。


A Fresh Start for China and Japan?

中日关系的新开始？


Edmonton – Chinese President Hu Jintao will make a high-profile visit to Japan from May 6-10, making him the second Chinese head of state ever to travel there.

埃德蒙顿 — — 中国主席胡锦涛将于5月6日至10日高调访问日本，这次访问令他成为有史以来第二位访日的中国国家主席。


The trip is being carefully managed by both countries, and is being watched closely around the world, with good reason: Sino-Japanese relations over the past decade have been turbulent, to say the least.

中日两国都小心谨慎地对待这次访问，世界其他国家也一直在密切关注这次访问的行程，其原因显而易见：过去10年来的中日关系一直充满了各种各样的动荡，这恐怕还是最缓和的说法。


When Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin, traveled to Japan ten years ago, bilateral relations were deteriorating: China was unhappy with the Japanese government’s refusal to extend the same apology offered to South Korea for past aggression; Japan was worried about a rising China and thus turning more confrontational.

当胡的前任江泽民10年前访问日本时，双边关系正在迅速恶化：中国对日本政府拒绝对过去的侵略行为向中国和韩国同样致歉深感不满，而日本则对中国的崛起充满了忧虑，也因此滋长了对立情绪。


The Japanese media’s coverage of the visit was overwhelmingly negative, and it was remembered as a public-relations disaster.

日本媒体对那次访问进行了占据压倒优势的负面报导，而那次访问也被作为公共关系的一场灾难载入了史册。


Hu succeeded Jiang in 2002, almost as former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was coming to power in Japan, and encouraged “New Thinking” in China’s Japan policy, which would entail moving away from historical grievances and promoting better ties.

胡在2002年接替了江的位置，当时的前日本首相小泉纯一郎也刚刚宣誓就职，胡鼓励在中日关系中引入“全新思维 ” ， 这样也许可以远离历史的不满并促进更为健康的双边关系。


But, instead of accepting China’s olive branch, Koizumi implemented a more nationalistic agenda, including annual visits to the Yasukuni Shine, which is regarded as a symbol of Japanese militarism by Japan’s neighbors.

但小泉不仅没有接过中国递出的橄榄枝，相反却实行了更倾向于民族主义的政治策略，包括每年一度参拜敬国神社，而该神社在日本的邻国看来恰恰象征着日本的军国主义。


His hard-line approach isolated Japan and angered China, leading to an outburst of anti-Japanese demonstrations in China in 2005.

小泉的强硬路线在让日本陷入孤立的同时激怒了中国，引发了2005年的一系列反日示威。


But both Japan and China recognize that further tension will serve neither country’s long-term interests.

但日本和中国都已意识到：双边关系进一步紧张化不符合任何一方的长期利益。