Past initiatives – like the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and the World Bank’s East Africa Public Health Laboratory Networking Project – have greatly expanded the continent’s medical infrastructure.

过去的各项计划 — — 如防治艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金、美国总统艾滋病紧急救济计划以及世界银行东非公共医疗实验室联网计划 — — 都已经极大拓展了非洲大陆的医疗基础设施建设。


National efforts are also strengthening pharmaceutical supply chains, improving medical training, and increasing the quality of diagnostic networks.

非洲各国也在强化药品供应链、改善医疗培训并提升诊断网络的服务质量。


Still, Africans cannot face down this threat alone.

但非洲人仍然无法独自面对这样的威胁。


That is why the American Society for Clinical Pathology, where I work, is cooperating with other global health-care innovators to attack the region’s growing cancer crisis.

我所在机构美国临床病理学会因此正在与其他全球医疗保健创新机构合作来遏制非洲地区癌症危机的蔓延势头。


We have teamed up with the American Cancer Society (ACS) and the pharmaceutical company Novartis to support cancer treatment and testing efforts in four countries: Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda.

我们已经与美国癌症协会（ACS）和诺华制药展开合作，支持埃塞俄比亚、卢旺达、坦桑尼亚和乌干达等四国的癌症治疗和检测工作。


Together, we have brought immunohistochemistry, a key diagnostic tool, to seven regional laboratories, an effort we hope lead to more timely cancer diagnoses and greatly improve the quality of care.

我们已经一起将重要诊断工具“免疫组织化学染色法”带到了7家地区实验室，我们希望这样可以更及时地作出癌症诊断并极大地改善护理质量。


To complement these technical efforts, the ACS is also training African health-care professionals how to carry out biopsies and deliver chemotherapy.

美国癌症协会还培训非洲专业医疗人士如何进行活检和化疗，以补充上面所提到的技术性工作。


That initiative, funded by Novartis, is viewed as a pilot program that could expand to other regional countries.

这项由诺华资助的计划被视为有可能向其他区域国家拓展的一项试点工作。


Finally, our organizations are advocating for enhanced cancer-treatment guidelines in national health-care planning efforts, protocols that we believe are essential to improving health outcomes.

最后，我所在机构正在倡导在国家医疗保健计划工作中强化癌症治疗的指导原则，我们认为这样的条款规定能在改善医疗效果的过程中发挥至关重要的作用。


These initiatives are in conjunction with other undertakings, such as a joint ACS-Clinton Health Access Initiative program to broaden access to cancer medications.

上述条款与美国癌症协会-克林顿联合健康计划相结合，以扩大癌症治疗药物的普及度。


When the world took notice that infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS, polio, and malaria were ravaging Africa, action plans were drawn up and solutions were delivered.

当世界各国意识到艾滋病毒/艾滋病、小儿麻痹症和疟疾等传染性疾病在非洲肆虐，我们制定了行动计划并积极付诸行动。


Today, a similar global effort is needed to ensure that every African with a cancer diagnosis can get the treatment they need.

今天，人们必须推进类似的全球工作，以确保每位被确诊患有癌症的非洲人都能得到所需的治疗服务。


Now, as then, success depends on coordination among African governments, health-service providers, drug makers, and non-governmental organizations.

现在和当时一样，非洲政府、医疗服务提供商、制药企业和非政府组织之间的合作决定了抗击癌症能否取得成功。


There is no place on Earth that is immune from the dread of a cancer diagnosis; wherever the news is delivered, it is often devastating to recipients and their families.

地球上没有哪个地方不对癌症诊断充满恐惧；无论哪里的患者得到消息，对接受者及其家庭来说会产生灾难性的后果。


But geography should never be the deciding factor in patients’ fight to survive the disease.

但地理位置永远不应成为患者与癌症斗争的决定性因素。


Cancer has been Africa’s silent killer for far too long, and the global health community must no longer remain quiet in the face of this crisis.

癌症作为非洲沉默的杀手已经太久，而面对这场危机全球医疗界绝对不应再保持沉默。


Investing in Africa’s Educators

投资非洲的教育者


JOHANNESBURG – Improving education is a slow, arduous, long-term undertaking everywhere, and nowhere more so than in Africa, where tight economic constraints often prevent sustained investment in human capital.

约翰内斯堡—教育的改善是一个缓慢、艰苦、长期的过程，不论在哪里都是如此，非洲更加如此。 经济的吃紧然常常让非洲无法持续投资于人力资本。


Those who work in the education sector on the continent have to seek solutions that are faster, cheaper, and can be scaled up.

非洲教育工作者必须找到更迅速、更廉价并且能够推广的解决方案。


Too often, though, expedient approaches prove shortsighted, and fail to engage local leaders who hold the keys to economic and social progress.

但是，权宜之计往往相当短视，无法让座位经济和社会进步的关键的地方领导者参与进来。


Too often, grassroots-level voices, reflecting firsthand experience addressing their communities’ problems, are ignored.

草根的声音往往被忽视，而这些声音又往往反映了解决发声者所在社区的问题的第一手经验。


When global leaders gather in Hamburg this week for the G20 summit, the new G20-Africa Partnership will take center stage.

本周，全球领导人将在汉堡举行G20峰会，新的G20-非洲合作计划将成为中心议题。


But those committed to helping Africa should focus squarely on the nuts and bolts of aid and development – and that means investing in local leadership.

但致力于帮助非洲的仁人志士应该将注意力对准援助与发展的要害 — — 而这意味着投资于地方领导力。


Sadly, the best-funded aid organizations in Africa are often run by Westerners, or by Africans who have extensive ties to the West.

悲哀的是，在非洲，资金充裕的援助组织往往由西方人负责管理，而不是由于西方关系密切的非洲人负责管理。


I recently spoke to several entrepreneurs who shared anecdotal evidence that organizations in Africa with a Western co-founder raise more than twice the funds of African-run organizations.

我最近从几位企业家那里获知，有西方联合创始人的非洲组织，能够筹集到比由非洲人负责管理的组织多一倍的资金。


This financial prejudice is visible elsewhere, too, and it is perpetuating the dearth of local talent.

这一金融偏见随处可见，导致地方人才永久性流失。


The pro-Western bias should worry everyone working to build better communities for our children.

对于任何致力于为儿童创造更好的社区的人来说，亲西方的偏见值得忧虑。


When it comes to addressing social issues – whether it’s educational inequity, poverty, or discrimination – the most committed advocates are those who have first-hand knowledge of the problem they seek to solve.

在解决社会问题时 — — 不管是教育不平等、贫困还是歧视 — — 最着力的支持者总是那些对需要解决的问题具备第一手经验的人。


Personal experience is the best way to create agents for change, because it underpins people’s long-term, personal investment in dismantling systems that exacerbate inequity and injustice.

个人经验是最好的变化催化剂，因为它能够在一个不平等和不公平不断加剧的分崩离析的系统中支持人们的长期个人投资。


What would it look like if the leaders overhauling such systems were cultivated from the very communities that needed them most?

如果修补这些系统的领导者正是从最需要他们的社区中长大，情况会怎么样？


Some organizations are answering that question already.

一些组织已经开始回答这个问题了。


More than 12,000 people have applied to join Teach For Nigeria, a national organization that recruits, trains, and places young teachers in high-need schools.

12,000多人申请加入尼日利亚教育计划（Teach For Nigeria ） 。 这是一个全国性组织，招募和培训年轻教师，然后分配到急需他们的学校。


The program, designed as a fellowship, will choose fewer than 60 of Nigeria’s brightest university graduates and professionals, not only to develop excellent classroom teachers, but also to empower the next generation of social entrepreneurs committed to tackling inequity and deeply connected to local efforts already underway in communities across their country.

该计划是一个奖学金项目，它将遴选不多于60名尼日利亚最优秀的大学毕业生和专业人士，不但要培养优秀的讲课教师，也要给致力于解决不平等性，并与已经在全国社区蓬勃开展的地方措施关系密切的下一代社会创业家赋权。


After their two-year teaching commitment, which begins in September, these up-and-coming leaders will join a worldwide movement of over 55,000 people who have completed the fellowship in over 40 countries, including the 30 fellows already hard at work next door at Teach for Ghana.

在经过从9月份开始为期两年的教学承诺后，这些成长起来的领导者将加入一场包括55,000多人的全球性运动，这些人来自40多个国家，都完成了类似的奖学金项目，包括加纳教育计划（Teach for Ghana）所培养的、现在已经投入到艰苦工作中去的30位奖学金获得者。


We call this powerful grouping of change-agents “collective leadership,” and we believe it is the only way to ensure positive, lasting change.

我们将这个强大的变化推动者群体成为“集体领导者 ” ， 我们相信这是确保持续的积极变化的唯一方法。


Inadequate investment in locally led initiatives is one of the two ways in which we fail to ensure that those who are most affected by inequity have pathways to address it.

地方领导的计划的投资不足是我们无法保证受不平等性影响最大的群体能够找到办法纠正这个问题的两大原因之一。


The second is the failure to invest in children.

另一个原因是我们没有投资于儿童。


In Uganda, 70% of children do not complete primary school.

在乌干达，70%的儿童无法完成小学学业。


Basic education is the foundation for our lifelong ability to analyze information, present ideas and opinions, and challenge the world around us.

基础教育是我们分析信息、形成思想和观点、挑战周边世界的终身能力的基础。


And yet, in too many African communities, we are failing to invest in laying those foundations.

但是，在太多非洲社区，我们并没有致力于投资这些基础。


Across the continent, educational attainment is sharply stratified: while 82% of children from the wealthiest families complete primary school, only 28% of children from the poorest families do.

在整个非洲，入学率分层明显：82% 的富裕家庭儿童可以完成小学教育，而最贫穷家庭儿童的这一比例只有28 % 。


If the future of the continent is to be shaped by, or with, those who have most acutely experienced its challenges, programs like Teach for Nigeria and Teach for Ghana are essential.

如果非洲的未来将由被这一挑战伤害最深的人所决定或影响，那么尼日利亚教育计划和加纳教育计划等项目就是至关重要的。


Imagine what could be accomplished if efforts to place local recruits in low-income schools were expanded.

想象一下，如果能够将本地招募的教师分配到低收入学校的措施得到推广，会发生生么。


Imagine how many opportunities to address the challenges facing children and families could be created, potentially reaching hundreds of thousands of children who are also inspired and encouraged to think critically and resolve the problems affecting the world around them.

想象一下，有多少解决儿童和家庭所面临的挑战的机会会被创造出来，并有可能覆盖数十万有志向并被孤立进行批判性思考和解决周边世界的问题的儿童。


Some argue that education is meaningless if graduates cannot find work; in fact, job creation in Africa will be a major topic of discussion at the G20 summit.

有人指出，如果毕业了找不到工作，那么教育就毫无意义；事实上，非洲就业创造也将是G20峰会的一个重大议题。


But while investment in business development and job creation is crucial for economic vitality and growth, it won’t happen without an educated workforce.

但是，尽管企业发展和就业创造投资对于经济活力和增长至关重要，但如果没有受过教育的劳动力，一切都是空谈。


A robust job market presupposes a sufficient number of skilled workers to fill available jobs.

强健的就业市场首先需要有足够多的高技能工人填补现成的工作岗位。


But in Sub-Saharan Africa, only 58% of children complete primary school.

但在撒哈拉以南非洲，只有58% 的儿童能够从小学毕业。


This is why, when G20 leaders discuss new economic development strategies for Africa, they should focus on investment in education.

正因如此，G20领导人在讨论新的非洲经济发展战略时，应该关注教育投资。


But, more important, they should seek to ensure that resources make it to those who rely on local leadership and innovation.

但更重要的是，他们应该确保资源用于依靠地方领导力和创新的人。


Sustainable Development Goal 4 – to ensure equitable and inclusive education for all by 2030 – is attainable, but only if solutions come from the ground up, which means from the Africans most committed to them.

可持续发展目标4 — — 到2030年确保平等包容的教育 — — 是可以实现的，但解决方案必须要“接地气 ” ， 即要接入最渴望教育的非洲人民这个“地气 ” 。


Empowering the Other Half of Africa’s Economy

赋权非洲经济的另一半


JOHANNESBURG – Julius Nyerere, the founding president of Tanzania, once said that “unity” will not make Africa rich, but “it can make it difficult for Africa and the African peoples to be disregarded and humiliated.”

约翰内斯堡—坦桑尼亚建国总统朱利乌斯·尼雷尔曾说 ， “ 联合”无法让非洲变富，但“可以让非洲和非洲人民不再那么容易被轻视、被屈辱。


But, two decades later, Africa remains divided along a key fault line: gender.

”但是，二十年过去了，仍然有一条断层线将非洲一分为二，那就是性别。


To realize Nyerere’s vision of a strong, dignified continent, Africa needs a new era of liberation, one that is fueled by the economic empowerment of the continent’s women.

要想实现尼雷尔的让非洲成为一个强大的、有尊严的大洲的愿景，非洲需要一个自由的新时代，为非洲妇女经济赋权能够为这个时代增添动力。


Although projections by the consultancy McKinsey anticipate that by 2040, Africa will have the world’s largest labor force, with more than 1.1 billion people of working age, more than 60% of Africa’s current population still survive on less than $2 a day.

麦肯锡咨询公司预测，到2040年，非洲将拥有全世界最大规模的劳动力，工作年龄人扣将超11亿人，但在非洲当前人口中，超过60%的人生活水平仍然低于每天2美元。


It is obvious that while many Africans have benefited from political emancipation – the legacy of Nyerere’s generation – poverty remains a significant obstacle.

显然，尽管许多非洲人从政治解放中获益 — — 这是尼雷尔这一代人留下的遗产 — — 但贫困仍然是一个巨大的障碍。


Unleashing the employment potential of African women is the best way to overcome it.

释放非洲妇女的就业潜力，是克服这一障碍的最佳办法。


As it stands, Africa’s women continue to be underrepresented in key industries and executive roles, owing to workplace discrimination and patriarchal expectations at home.

目前，非洲妇女在重要行业和管理岗位上仍然鲜有代表人物，造成这一现象的原因是职场歧视和父权家庭。


Unless barriers to entering the formal economy are removed and women are presented with options that enable them to realize their full potential, Africa’s socioeconomic development will continue to be impeded.

除非能够取消阻碍妇女进入正式经济的壁垒，让妇女拥有充分实现她们的潜力的选择，否则非洲社会经济发展将继续饱受抑制。


But while women are essential to the continent’s progress, they are still too often regarded as being secondary.

但是，尽管妇女对于非洲的进步至关重要，她们仍然常被视为二等公民。


Women must therefore claim their right to sit where decisions are made, and to shape the policies, plans, and strategies that will affect their lives and the lives of Africans for generations to come.

因此，妇女必须主张她们参与决策的权利，主张她们参与影响她们以及未来非洲人民生活的政策、计划和战略的权利。


Studies have shown that if more women had access to male-dominated occupations in Africa, worker productivity would rise by as much as 25%.

研究表明，如果更多的非洲妇女能够获得男性主宰的职位，劳动生产率将提高多达 25 % 。


That would be good for the overall economy, but also for women in general, as it would open up new avenues for social empowerment.

这对于总体经济来说是一个好消息，对一般妇女来说也是好消息，因为这会打开新的社会赋权之门。


When women participate in the job market and engage actively in business or political decision-making, patriarchal power dynamics shift, elevating the social status of women.

如果妇女能够进入就业市场，积极参与商业或政治决策，父权社会的动态就会发生改变，提高妇女的社会地位。


Economic equality also challenges accepted beliefs, and dispels harmful myths that perpetuate narrow definitions of gender norms.

经济平等也在挑战现有的信念，消除让狭隘的性别规范大行其道的有害的传说。


In other words, bringing more women into the workplace leads to an emancipation of mindset – in men and women alike.

换句话说，让更多妇女进入职场，能够带来解放思维 — — 不管是对男性还是对女性。


What Nyerere so eloquently said of Africa as a whole is no less true for its women: unity is the key to realizing our potential.

尼雷尔对于非洲的雄辩之辞，对于非洲妇女同样成立：联合是实现我们的潜力的关键。


When we come together as generators of wealth, it becomes impossible for us to go unrecognized for our economic contributions and marginalized in our entrepreneurial endeavours.

当我们拧成一股绳，成为财富的创造者，我们的经济贡献就不会得不到承认，我们在我们的创业努力中也不会被边缘化。


At the Graça Machel Trust, we are joining together with civil-society actors, the private sector, and governments across the continent to lead a new economic liberation movement for women.

在格拉夏·马谢尔信托，我们与全非洲的公民社会行动方、私人部门和政府合作，领导着一场妇女经济解放运动。


Divided, we are weak, but together, Africa’s women have the ability to confront and overcome the barriers that have kept us from full participation in our respective economies.

分则弱，但如果我们能够合在一起，非洲妇女就有能力面对和克服让我们无法充分参与到各自经济中的障碍。


There is power in networks.

网络存在力量。


My organization’s approach to economic advancement is to establish and strengthen informal and official networks, through which women can, in time, increase their participation and visibility in key sectors.

我的组织对于经济进步的方针就是建立和强化非正式的和官方的网络，通过这些网络，妇女能够及时提高她们在重要部门的参与度和辨识度（visibility ） 。


That is why we are launching the “Women Advancing Africa” initiative, which is part of our ongoing effort to amplify the voices of Africa’s underrepresented and to establish a pan-African women’s movement, in which women can come together to transform the continent.

因此，我们启动了“妇女推动非洲 ” （ Women Advancing Africa）计划，这是我们强化没有赢得足够代表的群体的声音，以及建立一个让妇女联合起来改变非洲的泛非洲妇女运动的努力的一部分。


The inaugural Women Advancing Africa Forum will take place this week in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and will convene more than 250 women leaders from across the continent.

妇女推动非洲论坛将于本周在坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆正式起航，届时将有来自非洲各地的250多位妇女领袖与会。


Under the overarching theme of “Driving Social and Economic Transformation,” the Forum will focus on three strategic goals: promoting financial inclusion, increasing market access, and driving social change.

论坛的总主题是“推动社会和经济转型 ” ， 将关注三个战略性目标：促进金融包容、增加市场准入，一级推动社会变革。


We aim to emerge from the Forum with a common agenda for our participation as full economic actors.

我们的目标是通过论坛形成一个共同日程，让我们成为全面的经济参与者。


It has been just over 20 years since Nyerere encouraged us to work toward African unity.

尼雷尔鼓励我们致力于非洲的联合不过20年。


Today, Africa’s women are helping to shape the policies and practices that will bring about economic and social liberation in their respective countries.

如今，非洲妇女正在影响能给各自国家带来经济和社会解放的政策和实践。


We have some way to go before African unity is fully realized.

充分实现非洲联合还有很长的路要走。


But enabling women to become full partners in Africa’s economic future, is among the best ways to ensure that we succeed.

但让妇女成为非洲经济未来的全面伙伴，则是确保我们能够成功的最佳办法之一。


Capitalizing on Africa’s Youth Dividend

利用非洲的年轻人红利


TORONTO – When South African university students took to the streets in 2016 as part of the “Fees Must Fall” protest movement, the “decolonization of the curriculum” was among the movement’s chief concerns.

多伦多—2016年，南非大学生纷纷走上街头，这是“必须降学费”运动的一部分。 当时 ， “ 课程的去殖民地化”是这场运动的核心诉求之一。


It was a pivotal moment in South Africa’s history, as young people rose to demand quality and accessible education.

这场运动也是南非的一个历史转折点，年轻人开始站起来要求高品质的普及教育。


But a crucial question was missing from the debate over fees and curricular relevance: how can changes to higher education empower Africa’s youth to drive the continent’s economic transformation?

但这场关于学费和课程的争论遗漏了一个关键问题：更高的教育程度如何让非洲青年赢得力量，推动非洲经济转型？


For Africa, the question is no longer “if” students are taught, but “what.”

对非洲来说，学生受到教育已经不是“是否”的问题，而是学到“什么”的问题。


Unfortunately, while access to education has improved significantly in recent decades, school curricula have changed little since the colonial era, when secondary education was an elite privilege designed to advance the careers of a select few.

不幸的是，尽管教育普及在近几十年来有了重大改善，但学校课程并没有较之殖民地时代有多少变化。 在殖民地时代，中等教育是一种精英特权，是专为一小撮人的职业生涯而设计的。


Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) programs have also suffered from neglect.

技术和在职教育和培训（TVET）也因为不受重视而蒙受损失。


Today, these initiatives are marked by outdated courses and rote learning methods that fail to prepare young people for the demands of the twenty-first-century job market.

如今，这些项目课程陈旧，学习方法呆板，无法让年轻人适应二十一世纪就业市场的需求。


The trouble goes beyond traditional components of the curriculum, like math, science, and language. There is also a deficiency in critical “soft” skills, such as communication, teamwork, and problem solving.

问题不仅在于课程的传统内容，如数学、科学和语言上，也在于缺乏重要的“软”技能，如沟通、团队合作和解决问题。


Though neglected, it is these skills that enable young people to become adaptable, lifelong learners.

尽管这些技能不受重视，但它们能让年轻人成为适应能力卓著的终身学习者。


The mastery of soft skills correlates to improved outcomes in school, work, and life.

掌握软技能与学业、工作和生活结果的改善之间存在相关性。


Yet, until recently, training in soft skills has not been integrated into formal education systems on the continent.

但是，直到最近，软技能的训练仍然没有纳入非洲的正规教育体系中。


Fortunately, that is changing.

幸运的是，情况正在起变化。


Across the continent, secondary schools and TVET systems are transforming themselves to prepare Africa’s young minds with the skills they need to make the transition from school to employment, and to become more engaged citizens.

在整个非洲，中等学校和TVET系统正在实现转型，准备好用完成学生到工作者和参与度更高的公民的转变所必须的技能，来武装非洲的年轻头脑。


These adjustments are coming at a critical time for Africa, where many countries are experiencing a demographic dividend of declining fertility rates and rising productivity.

这些调整的到来正逢非洲的关键时刻。 许多非洲国家正在经历生育率下降、生产率提高的人口红利。


In particular, these changes mean more opportunity for young people as they prepare to enter the job market.

特别是，这些变化意味着年轻人在准备进入就业市场时可以获得更多机会。


But to succeed on the job, young people must have the skills and education that a modern economy requires.

但要取得职场成功，年轻人必须具备现代经济所要求的技能和教育。


At The MasterCard Foundation, where I manage education and learning programs, we’ve put together a blueprint – called Skills at Scale – to help African educators revitalize their curricula to capitalize more effectively on the economic potential of youth.

在万事达卡基金会，我负责管理教育和学习项目。 我们制定了一个蓝图 — — 称为《大规模技能 》 （ Skills at Scale ） — —以帮助非洲教育者通过课程设置更有效地发挥年轻人的经济潜力。


One of the continent’s most successful efforts already underway is the USAID-funded Akazi Kanoze Youth Livelihoods Project, designed by the Education Development Center (EDC) in Boston.

目前，非洲正在实施的最成功的项目之一是美国国际开发署赞助的阿卡兹·卡诺泽年轻人生计计划（Akazi Kanoze Youth Livelihoods Project ） ， 该计划由波士顿的教育发展中心（Education Development Center ，EDC）制定。


Akazi Kanoze epitomizes how a small initiative can catalyze wider education-sector reform, by emphasizing links to local employers that provide access to entry-level jobs, internships, and apprenticeships.

阿卡兹·卡诺泽计划充分说明了一个小规模的项目如何通过强调提供入门岗位、实习和学徒机会的本地雇主，带来大规模的教育改革。


The focus on personal development, interpersonal communication, and leadership training has ensured that students are well equipped to enter the labor market upon graduation.

其注重个人发展、人际沟通和领导力培训的做法确保了学生充分做好了一毕业就能进入劳动力市场的准备。


Rwanda’s Ministry of Education has already moved to integrate elements of the program in TVETs across the country.

卢旺达教育部已经准备将该计划的药物纳入到全国TVWT项目中。


The government recently integrated Akazi Kanoze’s approach in the national curriculum to equip secondary and TVET students with the soft skills they require to succeed.

卢旺达政府最近在全国课程体系中纳入了阿卡兹·卡诺泽计划的方法，让中等学校和TVET学生具备取得成功所需要的软技能。


National exams in the 2018-2019 academic year will also reflect the new competency-based curriculum.

2018—2019学年国家统考也将体现新的基于能力的课程。


Since 2009, Akazi Kanoze trainings have prepared more than 37,000 youth for work, with more than 65% of participants in the initial round of training employed six months after graduation.

2009年以来，阿卡兹·卡诺泽计划培训了37,000多位年轻人，其中65%的首轮培训参与者在毕业后六个月内找到了工作。


Based on the success of integrating soft skills into the curriculum in Rwanda, The MasterCard Foundation and EDC will launch a similar program in Senegal later this year.

基于在卢旺达取得了将软技能纳入课程的成功，万事达卡基金会和EDC将在今年晚些时候在塞内加尔启动一项类似的计划。


Case studies from Skills at Scale highlight six components to a successful skills-training initiative.

来自《大规模技能》的案例研究强调了成功的技能培训计划的六个要素。


These include an enabling policy environment, in which the government is supportive and sets clear goals for education sector reform; vocal backing for these changes from strong political champions; wide stakeholder engagement, especially in the design and implementation phases of the reform; decentralization of authority for education; flexibility on the part of donors; and the ability to measure the changes’ impact on youth employment and entrepreneurship.

它们包括有利的政策环境（政府持支持台独，并为教育部门改革制定明确的目标 ） 、 政治要人对这些改变的口头支持、相关利益方的广泛参与（特别是在改革的设计和实施阶段 ） 、 教育权力的分散化、出资者的灵活性，以及衡量改变对年轻人就业和企业家精神的影响的能力。


Change is not without challenge.

改变不是没有挑战的。


Adapting models of skills training to vastly different education systems across Africa will take time.

调整技能培训模式依适应非洲多变的教育体系需要时间。


It will also be difficult to ensure that intensive training models reach all young people, including those no longer in school.

确保密集培训模式触及所有年轻人，包括早已不在上学的人也将十分困难。


Experience in Rwanda shows that curriculum redesign requires close cooperation with education and workforce development authorities, as well as government officials, teachers, and school administrators.

卢旺达的经验表明，课程的重新设计需要与教育和劳工发展当局的紧密合作，政府官员、教师和学校管理者也要参与其中。


New curriculum content also requires developing new teaching and learning materials.

新的课程内容还要求开发新的教学和学习材料。


Achieving scale also requires a markedly different approach to training teachers than is currently on offer in most African school systems.

实现规模还需要采取与大部分非洲学校体系现行做法截然不同的方法去培训老师。


Trainings must go beyond traditional, one-off approaches, by providing ongoing teacher support.

培训必须超越传统的一次性方法，而要持续提供教师支持。


New pedagogies also require continual supervision and practice, especially early on.

新的教学法还需要洲级监督和实践，特别是在早期。


The old “cascade” model of teacher training simply won’t work.

旧的教师培训“阶梯 ” （ cascade）模式已经完全失去了效果。


African governments, with support from the international community, can help students’ transition from school to work by relying on a curriculum that elevates the importance of soft skills.

在国际社会的帮助下，非洲政府可以通过强调软技能的重要性的课程，帮助学生从校园到工作岗位的转型。


If done well, these changes can ensure young people are positioned to drive Africa’s future prosperity.

如果顺利的话，这些变化能够确保年轻人推动非洲的未来繁荣。


Africans deserve a forward-looking education system, not one that remains stuck in the past.

非洲人民理应获得具有前瞻性，而不是陷在过去难以自拔的教育体系。


As students in South Africa demonstrated last year, the continent’s youth will settle for nothing less.

南非学生在去年已经证明，只有这样才能令非洲年轻人满足。


A Big Bond for Africa

非洲大债券


LAGOS – The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have reached a critical juncture.

拉各斯—撒哈拉以南非洲诸国走到了关键时刻。


Strained by a collapse in commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown, the region’s growth slipped to 3.4% in 2015 – nearly 50% lower than the average rate over the previous 15 years.

受困于大宗商品价格暴跌和中国经济减速，2015年该地区增长率下滑到3.4 % — —比此前15年的平均水平低了近50 % 。


The estimated growth rate for 2016 is lower than the population growth rate of about 2%, implying a per capita contraction in GDP.

2016年预计增长率更是低于2%左右的人口增长率，这意味着人均GDP将有所下降。


Sustained economic growth is essential to maintain progress on reducing poverty, infant mortality, disease, and malnutrition.

持续的经济增长对于保持降低贫困、婴儿死亡率、疾病和营养不良等方面的进步至关重要。


It is also the only way to create sufficient good jobs for Africa’s burgeoning youth population – the fastest growing in the world.

保持经济增长也是为不断膨胀的年轻人口创造足够的优质岗位的唯一办法 — — 非洲年轻人口增长率为世界之最。


As Gerd Müller, Germany’s development minister, noted at a recent press conference, “If the youth of Africa can’t find work or a future in their own countries, it won’t be hundreds of thousands, but millions that make their way to Europe.”

德国发展部长戈尔德·穆勒（Gerd Müller）在最近的新闻发布会上指出 ， “ 如果非洲年轻人不能在祖国找到工作和未来，就会有数百万计，而不是几万或几十万人想方设法来到欧洲。 ”


One way to sustain growth and create jobs would be to collaborate on planning and implementing a massive increase in infrastructure investment across Africa.

保持增长、创造就业的一个办法是在整个非洲共同规划和实施大规模增加基础设施投资。


Public infrastructure is particularly important.

公共基础设施尤其重要。


This includes highways, bridges, and railways linking rural producers in landlocked countries to Africa’s urban consumers and external markets; mass transit and Internet infrastructure to accommodate greater commercial activity; and electricity transmission lines integrating privately financed power plants and grids.

它们包括高速公路、桥梁和铁路，将内陆国的农业生产者与非洲城市消费者和外部市场连接起来；包括大规模运输和互联网基础设施，以容纳更多的商业活动；也包括输电线路，将私人融资的发电厂和电网融合在一起。


Major regional projects are also needed to knit together Sub-Saharan Africa’s many tiny economies.

撒哈拉以南非洲的许多微型经济体也需要通过大型地区项目联系在一起。


This is the only way to create the economies of scale needed to increase the export potential of African agriculture and industry, as well as to reduce domestic prices of food and manufactured goods.

这是创造规模经济的唯一办法，而国模经济则是提升非洲农业和工业出口潜力，以及降低食品和制造品的国内价格的必要条件。


While governments in Africa are spending more on public infrastructure themselves, outside finance is still required, especially for regional projects, which are rarely a top priority for national governments.

尽管非洲各国政府正在增加自身的公共基础设施支出，但仍然需要外部融资，特别是对于很少成为国家政府重中之重的地区项目。


Yet aid from Africa’s traditionally generous foreign donors, including the United States and Europe, is now set to shrink, owing to political and economic constraints.

但传统的慷慨出资者，包括美国和欧洲，目前都因为政治和经济约束而准备缩减援助。


But there may be a solution that helps Africa recover its growth in a way that Western leaders and their constituents find acceptable.

但也许存在一种办法，可以帮助非洲增长恢复，并且被西方领导人和他们的选民所接受。


We call it the “Big Bond” – a strategy for leveraging foreign aid funds in international capital markets to generate financing for massive infrastructure investment.

我们称之为“大债券 ” — —利用外国援助资金作为国际资本市场杠杆，为大规模基础设施投资筹集融资。


Specifically, donors would borrow against future aid flows in capital markets.

具体而言，出资者可以在资本市场中，根据未来援助流贷款。


That way, they could exploit current low interest rates at home, as they generate new resources.

如此，它们可以利用目前本国的低利率来开源。


With 30-year US Treasury rates of about 3%, donors would have to securitize only about $5 billion to raise $100 billion.

30年美国国债利率大约在3 % ， 出资者只需要证券化大约50亿美元，就能筹集1,000亿美元。


That money could come from the $35 billion in annual official development assistance (ODA) to Africa (which totals about $50 billion) that takes the form of pure grants.

这笔钱可以来自每年对非洲的纯捐赠形式的350亿官方发展援助（ODA，总量大约为500亿美元 ） 。


Donors would pass on the interest cost to African countries, reducing their own fiscal costs.

出资者可以将利息成本砖家给非洲国家，降低它们自身的财政负担。


For African countries, the terms would be better than those provided by Eurobonds.

对非洲国家来说，条件也要优于欧元债券所提供的条件。


In fact, as audacious as it may sound, passing on the interest costs to recipient countries could actually bolster their debt sustainability.

事实上，尽管这听上去有些冒险，将利息成本转嫁给受资国实际上可以加强它们的债务可持续性。


According to a study of eight countries by the African Development Bank’s Policy Innovation Lab, a 3% interest rate in US dollar terms would be lower than the marginal cost of commercial borrowings undertaken by several African countries over the last five years.

据非洲开发银行政策创新实验室（Policy Innovation Lab）的一项针对八个国家的研究，3%的美元利率将比一些非洲国家在过去五年中进行的商业借贷的边际成本更低。


Moreover, far longer maturities and grace periods, compared to market finance, would ease growing pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.

此外，与市场融资相比远远更长的期限和宽限期将缓解对外汇储备的压力。


Frontloading aid in this way is not new.

这种形式的前置援助并非新事物。


Doing so in the early 2000s to finance vaccines saved millions of lives in the developing world.

21世纪初，以这种方式进行的疫苗融资拯救了数百万发展中国家的生命。


Big Bond resources, managed by the African Development Bank, could be used to help guarantee financing for major regional infrastructure projects that have long been stuck on the back burner, such as the East Africa Railway connecting Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi, and a highway stretching from Nigeria to Côte d’Ivoire.

在非洲开发银行的管理下，大债券资源可用于保证长期无法得到重点照顾的大型地区基础设施项目的融资，如连接坦桑尼亚、卢旺达和布隆迪的东非铁路以及从尼日利亚通往科特迪瓦的高速公路。


Such projects could also be co-financed by private investors.

这些项目也可以与私人投资者合作共同融资。


Moreover, the Big Bond could help to reinvigorate the relationship between donors and African countries.

此外，大债券有助于重振出资者和非洲国家之间的关系。


And, as it supports investments with important country-level benefits, it could serve as an incentive for African countries to pursue reforms that increase their absorptive capacity, in terms of choosing and executing public infrastructure investments.

此外，由于它支持能带来重要的国家层面收益的投资，因此可以成为非洲国家实施改革的激励，提高它们的吸收能力 — — 如选择和执行公共基础设施投资。


The Big Bond approach represents a much-needed update to the ODA framework – one that supports higher and more sustainable growth in recipient countries, while lowering the burden on donor countries.

大债券方针是代表着ODA框架所急需的一个升级方向 — — 它能支持受资国更高、更可持续的增长，同时减轻出资国的负担。


At a time when aid is under political pressure, perhaps such a bold approach to maximizing the efficiency of donor resources is exactly what the world needs.

如今，援助饱受政治压力，或许这一大胆的最大化援助资源效率的方针正是全世界所需要的。


Accelerating Africa’s Energy Transition

加快非洲能源转型


PARIS – For much of Africa, the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner forms of energy is seen as an environmental imperative.

巴黎—在非洲大部，从化石燃料向更清洁的能源形式的转型被视为一项环境当务之急。


With fossil fuels comprising a majority – as high as 70% in some cases – of the energy mix, the situation on the continent is indeed ecologically dire.

化石燃料在一些地区占能源构成的大多数 — — 高达70 % — —非洲的形势确实非常不利于生态。


But Africa’s energy transition is economically urgent as well.

但从经济上说，非洲也迫切需要能源转型。


Each year, oil subsidies consume 1.5% of the continent’s GDP – roughly $50 billion.

非洲每年的石油补贴高达500亿美元左右，相当于全洲GDP的1.5 % 。


That is enough money to provide solar power to some 300 million people.

这笔钱足以为3亿人提供太阳能。


If the continent could rebalance its energy portfolio, moving away from hydrocarbons slowly, those subsidies could be reallocated in ways that would yield both environmental and economic benefits.

如果非洲能够实现能源组合再平衡，逐渐摆脱碳氢化合物，那么这些补贴就能转作其他用途，产生环境和经济效益。


Today, neither oil exporters nor importers are adequately insulated from price shocks.

如今，石油出口国和进口国都无法避免受到价格冲击的影响。


When oil prices declined rapidly in 2015, for example, Africa’s energy importers spent less on oil, while exporting countries suffered financially.

2015年，比如，石油价格迅速下跌，非洲能源进口国的石油支出有所下降，而出口国则蒙受经济损失。


When prices rebounded, the relationship switched: energy-exporting countries’ revenues inched up, while importing countries struggled to maintain consumption levels.

当结果反弹时，关系正好相反，能源出口国收入增加，而进口国难以维持消费水平。


This is a needless cycle.

这是一个毫无必要的循环。


Integrating cleaner power into national energy systems would not only raise local capacities; it would also free up hydrocarbons for export.

将更清洁的电力纳入国家能源体系不但能够提高地方产能；还能释放更多碳氢化合物用于出口。


The resulting revenue could then be invested into new forms of greener power.

由此获得的收入可以投资于新型绿色电力。


Such a transition, which would require cooperation with the oil sector, promises to boost socioeconomic progress.

这一转型需要石油部门的合作，有望对社会经济进步起到刺激作用。


Among the biggest benefits would be the electrification of areas that, under current distribution systems, are literally in the dark.

收益最大的某些地区的电气化。 在这些地区，以目前的配电系统，可以说是还生活在黑暗时代。


Today, just 30% of Africa has access to reliable electricity.

如今只有30%的非洲地区能够获得可靠电力。


But, with a total capacity estimated at around ten terawatts, installed solar capacity in Africa could broaden access dramatically.

但非洲建成太阳能装机容量据估计达到了十万亿瓦，可以大大扩大电力的普及。


In fact, according to some estimates, the increase in solar generation by 2030 could range from 15 to 62 gigawatts.

事实上，据某些估算，到2030年，太阳能发电量可以提高15到62十亿瓦。


Fossil fuels are not destined to be phased out anytime soon, but an energy mix that included a significant increase in solar power would have major economic advantages for Africa, especially in areas where agriculture is the largest economic sector.

化石燃料无法在短时间内退出，但如果能源组合中的太阳能比重能够显著提高，将给非洲带来的巨大的经济优势，特别是在农业是最重要的经济部门的地区。


Electrifying agricultural areas would facilitate the storage and transportation of farmed products, improve food security, and increase farmers’ earning capacity.

电气化农业区能够便利农作物的储存和 运输，改善粮食安全，提高农民的收入能力。


In the drive to rebalance Africa’s energy mix, the continent maintains one crucial advantage over developed economies: a clean slate.

在实现能源组合的再平衡的过程中，非洲拥有一个相对于发达经济体的重要优势：非洲是一块白板。


The relative absence of legacy investments is the principal reason why green power is Africa’s best energy option.

历史包袱相对较小是使绿色电力成为非洲最佳能源选择的主要原因。


Although every country must balance its own energy needs, reliance on renewable sources, and solar power in particular, is the most cost-efficient strategy for fostering rapid economic development throughout the continent.

尽管每个国家都必须平衡自身的能源需求，但依靠可再生资源（特别是太阳能 ） ， 对于促进全非洲快速经济发展来说是性价比最高的策略。


Evidence of this potential can be found in the few photovoltaic power plants that have begun operating in Africa.

这一潜力有多大？ 从非洲已经开始运行的少数光伏发电厂可见一斑。


For example, the Senergy 2 solar plant in Senegal sells electricity to the Senegalese power utility at a price that lowers the cost of the energy mix by 50%.

比如，塞内加尔的Senergy 2太阳能电站向塞内加尔电网出售的电价能让能源总成本下降50 % 。


Similar solar solutions are being implemented by African telecoms to electrify communication towers.

类似的太阳能方案也被非洲电信公司用于给通讯塔供电。


The best way to accelerate the transition from hydrocarbons to greener forms of energy would be to redirect a portion of national oil subsidies to renewables.

加快从碳氢化合物到绿色能源的转型的最佳办法是将一部分国家石油补贴用于可再生能源。


This would create stronger incentives to reduce fossil-fuel consumption, while encouraging investment and growth in green-energy output.

这将带来更强的激励去降低化石燃料消费，同时鼓励绿色能源产出的投资和增长。


For Africa’s rural regions, moreover, such policies would help bring communities out of darkness and lead to the installation of other critical infrastructure that economic growth requires.

此外，对非洲农村地区来说，这类政策还有助于让社区摆脱黑暗，建造其他经济增长所需要的重要基础设施。


But while renewables hold the key to Africa’s long-term prosperity, the continent’s transition to cleaner power should not lead to an immediate, full-scale repudiation of hydrocarbons.

但尽管可再生能源是非洲长期繁荣的关键，非洲向清洁电力的转型也不应该立刻一刀切地否定碳氢化合物。


The oil sector will still have an important role to play.

石油部门仍将扮演重要的角色。


The industry’s experience on the continent will be needed to navigate the energy transformation.

非洲需要石油业的经验来完成能源转型。


And, because fossil fuels will remain part of the continent’s energy mix, the oil sector must be encouraged to clean up its own act.

而由于化石燃料仍然是非洲能源组合的一部分，因此也必须鼓励石油业向清洁化方向发展。


This may sound like an impossible alliance.

这听上去像是一个不可能的联盟。


But as policymakers across the continent seek to secure adequate supplies of clean energy to ensure rapid, inclusive economic growth and environmental sustainability, they are likely to find that there is no alternative.

但在全非洲的决策者寻找确保清洁能源的充足供给，以保证高速、包容的经济增长和环境可持续性之际，他们也许会发现除此之外别无选择。


Cooperation between old and new energy industries may be the only engine that is capable of powering Africa forward.

新旧能源业的合作可能是能够推动非洲向前的唯一引擎。


Africa’s Vaccination Test

非洲的疫苗考验


BOSTON – In February in Addis Ababa, African health ministers signed a widely celebrated declaration of their commitment to keeping immunization at the forefront of efforts to save the continent’s children from death and disease.

波士顿—在2月的亚的斯亚贝巴，非洲各国卫生部长签署了一份广受欢迎的宣言，承诺将免疫作为拯救非洲儿童免遭死亡和疾病的措施的核心。


Fulfilling that commitment will be no easy feat.

兑现这一承诺绝不容易。


Immunization is not just a health issue; it is also an economic challenge.

免疫不仅是一个卫生问题，也是一个经济挑战。


The case for vaccination is strong.

支持疫苗的理由很充分。


Globally, an estimated 2-3 million child deaths and 600,000 adult deaths are prevented annually through immunization.

全球而言，每年有约200-300万儿童死亡和60万成人死亡通过免疫得以预防。


Moreover, immunization is considered one of the most cost-effective public-health interventions for reducing child morbidity, mortality, and disability.

此外，免疫被认为是性价比最高的降低儿童患病、死亡和残疾的公共卫生干预措施。


A recent study estimates that every dollar spent on vaccination will save $16 in costs of illnesses averted.

一项最新研究估算，花在疫苗上的每一美元可以节约16美元的疾病预防成本。


Accounting for the value individuals place on longer and healthier lives, net returns on investments in immunization soar to some 44 times the cost.

考虑到个人对更长的寿命和更健康的生活的重视，免疫投资的净回报高达成本的44倍。


And net returns exceed costs for all vaccines.

并且净回报超过所有疫苗的成本。


Significant progress has been made.

我们已经取得了长足进步。


In 2014, 86% of children were immunized against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis, compared to less than 5% in 1974.

2014年，86%的儿童接受了白喉，破伤风，百日咳免疫，而1974年还不到5 % 。


And there have been extraordinary advances in the number and kinds of vaccines that are available.

在可用疫苗的数量和种类方面也取得了重大突破。


Yet, worldwide, an estimated 18.7 million infants are not being reached by routine immunization services.

但是，全球而言，仍有约1,870万婴儿不能获得常规免疫。


The problem, of course, is access.

当然，问题在于普及。


Detailed analysis of immunization reveals significant disparities within and across countries.

非洲各国的详细免疫分析表明，各国国内和各国之间存在巨大差异。


More than 60% of the non-immunized infants live in just ten countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Uganda, and South Africa.

超过60%的未免疫婴儿生活在十个国家：民主刚果（DRC ） 、 埃塞俄比亚、印度、印度尼西亚、伊拉克、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、乌干达和南非。


Routine immunization coverage remains particularly low in Africa; indeed, it has stagnated over the last three years, against a backdrop of weak and under-resourced health systems.

非洲常规免疫覆盖率仍然非常低；事实上，该覆盖率在过去三年保持停滞，原因是卫生体系薄弱、资源不足。


As a result, one in five African children still do not receive lifesaving vaccination.

结果，非洲五分之一的儿童仍得不到救命的疫苗。


In 2014, an estimated 42% of all global deaths from measles were in Africa.

2014年，大约42%的全球麻疹致死病例发生在非洲。


Most of Africa’s under-immunized children live in Nigeria, Ethiopia, the DRC, South Sudan, and Guinea.

大部分免疫不足的非洲儿童生活在尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、民主刚果、南非、埃塞俄比亚和几内亚。


Poor people, those living in rural areas, and families with lower education levels comprise the majority of those who are not reached.

穷人、农村人口和教育层次较低家庭占未得到免疫覆盖儿童的大部分。


Clearly, money is a leading factor shaping immunization outcomes.

显然，钱是决定免疫结果的首要因素。


Beyond inadequately financed health systems, which remain weak and inefficient, especially in rural areas, African countries face challenges in affording new, more expensive vaccines.

除了资金不足、依然薄弱和低效的卫生体系（特别是在农村地区 ） ， 非洲国家还面临无力承担更加昂贵的新疫苗的挑战。


New vaccines should be enabling us to save more lives.

新疫苗应该让我们得以拯救更多声明。


Yet Médecins Sans Frontières estimates that the introduction of new vaccines made it 68 times more expensive to vaccinate a child in 2014 than in 2001 in most African countries.

但无国界医生组织估计，引入新疫苗导致大部分非洲国家2014年接种一名儿童的成本比2001年增加了68倍。


Another study showed that in 2001, the total cost of the original set of six World Health Organization-recommended vaccines was less than one dollar.

另一项研究表明，2001年世界卫生组织最初推荐的六种疫苗总成本不到一美元。


In 2014, the number of WHO-recommended vaccines had risen to 11 – and the cost had reached about $21 for boys and $35 for girls.

2014年，世卫组织推荐的疫苗种类增加到11种 — — 成本也高达男孩约21美元，女孩约35美元。


The added costs of delivery, currently estimated at about $25 per child, bring the total cost of fully immunizing a child today to $50-60.

如今，打疫苗的新增成本 — — 目前大约为每名儿童25美元 — — 让一名儿童获得充分免疫的总成本达到了50—60美元。


That same study found that, in many low- and middle-income countries, immunization budgets are currently insufficient to sustain vaccination programs, much less incorporate the new costlier vaccines.

同一项研究表明，在许多中低收入国家，目前的免疫预算不足以维持疫苗项目，更不用说纳入新的昂贵疫苗了。


As several health ministers pointed out in Addis Ababa, high vaccine prices force poor countries’ governments to make tough choices about which deadly diseases they can afford to prevent.

一些国家的卫生部长在亚的斯亚贝巴指出，高昂的疫苗价格迫使穷国政府需要作出承担预防哪些致命疾病的成本的艰难选择。


For some countries, the situation is about to get worse, as Gavi, the international group which has helped to finance the dramatic global expansion of new vaccines, phases out support for countries deemed to have “graduated” from assistance.

对一些国家来说，情况可能进一步恶化。 帮助融资支持新疫苗的大幅全球扩张的国际组织Gavi对于其认为已从援助“毕业”的国家逐渐收回支持。


Without eligibility for the lower prices obtained by Gavi, many of these countries may not be able to afford newer vaccines.

许多失去了获得Gavi的低价的国家可能无法承担更新的疫苗。


In order to cope with this challenge, African political leaders have committed to invest in the continent’s capacity to develop and produce its own vaccines.

为了应对这一挑战，非洲政治领导人已承诺投资建设非洲开发和生产自己的疫苗的能力。


But this is a long-term strategy that will require coordinated regional investment planning, market development, and stronger regulatory capabilities.

单这一长期战略需要互相协调的地区投资规划、市场开发和更强的监管能力。


In the short to medium term, African countries would do well to look into the power of collective bargaining to strike better deals for needed vaccines.

在短期和中期，非洲国家最好着眼于集体讨价还价力量，为需要的疫苗争取更好的合同。


While Africa can and should do more to improve vaccination, the global community also has a responsibility to make a concerted effort to bring down vaccine costs.

非洲可以也应该为改善疫苗做出更多，单全球社会也有责任共同努力降低疫苗成本。


The recently announced reduction in the price of pneumococcal vaccine is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough.

最新宣布的降低肺炎球菌疫苗价格的决定是迈向正确方向的一步，但仍不足够。


Without collective action, equitable and sustained access to immunization in Africa will remain a major problem – and children’s lives will continue to be lost.

如果不采取集体行动，平等且持续地为非洲提供免疫仍将是一个重大问题 — — 儿童的生命也将继续流失。


Africa’s Avoidable AIDS Crisis

可以避免的非洲艾滋病危机


NEW YORK – At Uganda’s largest AIDS clinic, I recently witnessed a remarkable celebration of life. The performers were a troupe of young African singers, drummers and dancers, ranging in age from roughly eight to 28.

纽约 — —


“This is a land,” they sang,

最近，我在乌干达最大的艾滋病医院目睹了一场盛大的生命礼赞。 表演者是一群非洲年轻人，有歌手、鼓手和舞者，年龄从8岁至28岁不等。


“Where beautiful people

“这片土地上生活着美丽的人民 ， ” 他们唱道，


Laugh and dance in harmony.

“他们微笑，他们舞蹈，一切是那么和谐。


Africa.

“非洲。


O Africa.”

哦，非洲。 ”


And, indeed, these young people laughed and danced not only in harmony but with a joie de vivre that lit up their faces and filled us all with happiness.

而事实上，这些年轻人的笑容和舞蹈不仅和谐，而且带有一种生存之乐，使他们脸上放出光彩，也使我们所有人充满欢乐。


Listening, it was hard to imagine that they could easily be dead – and would be, if not for this clinic.

听吧，很难想象死亡离他们近在咫尺 — — 而如果没有这座医院的话，他们也许早已离开人世了。


Each of those splendid performers is living with HIV.

这些出色的表演者都是艾滋病病毒（HIV）携带者。


Some arrived at the clinic so ill that they could scarcely walk.

其中一些人来到这家医院的时候已经病得无法走路了。


Others showed few symptoms but, having tested positive, came to be treated.

其他人来的时候虽然没有什么症状，但检查均呈阳性。


They were mothers and fathers, sisters and brothers, children and grandparents.

他们中有的是父母亲，有的是兄弟姐妹，有的是祖孙。


All were alive and healthy for one reason only: the Joint Clinical Research Center in Kampala, and the drugs that it provides them.

他们能够活下来，完全是因为位于坎帕拉的这家联合临床研究中心及其提供的药物。


Uganda was the epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. There the scourge began in earnest; there (as elsewhere in Africa) it exacts its highest toll.

乌干达是艾滋病流行的中心地带，是艾滋病最先爆发的地方，也是（和非洲其他地区一样）艾滋病发病率最高的地方。


Yet Uganda is also a success story.

但乌干达在防治艾滋病方面做的很好。


A decade ago, fewer than 10,000 people were taking the new generation of antiretroviral drugs that suppress the disease and offer the promise of a normal life.

十年前，只有不到10 000人能够获得新一代艾滋病特效药抗逆转录酶病毒药物从而转危为安。


Today, that figure is 200,000, thanks in large measure to generous support from the United States (under its PEPFAR program) and the Global Fund in Geneva.

今天，这一数字达到了200 000，这离不开美国（通过其PEPFAR项目）和日内瓦全球基金的慷慨支持。


We have seen similarly encouraging progress elsewhere.

其他地方也能看见类似的可喜进展。


Botswana, among others, has invested heavily to offer universal treatment, and now is well on its way to ensuring that no baby is born with HIV – a reality in developed countries, but not so in Africa, where 400,000 children are born with the disease each year.

其中，博茨瓦纳投入重金建立了全民医疗，正在朝着消灭艾滋病婴儿的目标大踏步前进 — — 在发达国家，这一目标早已实现，但在非洲，每年仍有400 000婴儿生来就带有艾滋病。


South Africa, with the largest number of people living with HIV, has spent nearly $1 billion over the past year in an ambitious counseling and testing campaign to roll back the epidemic.

HIV携带人口数量最多的南非去年花费了近10亿美元用于艾滋病咨询和检查项目，以此来对其进行控制。


But there is a new and growing danger that these advances might not be sustained.

但一个新的威胁已经出现并在日益严重，使得这些进步有可能无法持续。


Peter Mugyenyi, who runs the Joint Clinical Research Center, told me that part of the problem is the sheer weight of numbers.

联合临床研究中心主任彼得·莫缘依（Peter Mugyenyi）告诉我，问题的一部分是数字的分量太轻。


In Uganda, only about half of those with HIV/AIDS are being treated.

在乌干达，只有一半的艾滋病患者/HIV携带者获得了医治。


Meanwhile, money for treatment is drying up.

同时，医疗资金正在枯竭。


Because of the global recession, some international donors are threatening to cap their financial support.

由于全球衰退，一些国际赞助者警告将对财务支持进行限制。


Countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, as well as Uganda, are requesting assistance for emergency drug supplies.

马拉维、津巴布韦、肯尼亚和乌干达等国家正在要求紧急药物供给援助。


In Kampala, Dr. Mugyenyi has begun placing new patients on a waiting list.

在坎帕拉，莫缘依医生已经开始将新的求医者纳入候诊名单中。


As many as seven million Africans who should be getting treatment for HIV are not.

多达700万本应获得HIV治疗的非洲人没能获得治疗。


Worldwide, the number is about 10 million.

而全球高达1 000万人。


Compounding the problem: donors have also been shifting their focus from AIDS to other diseases, because there is a sense that more lives can be saved more cheaply.

雪上加霜的是，赞助者现在开始转向其他疾病，因为他们感觉这样可以用更少的钱救更多的人。


At a time when we should be scaling up to meet the AIDS challenge, we are dialing back.

眼下正是一鼓作气击败艾滋病的时候，我们却自己打了退堂鼓。


In our global war on AIDS, the international community is on the verge of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

在对艾滋病的斗争中，国际社会正在将唾手可得的胜利拱手让出。


Those who rallied to the fight are alarmed. They fear that the impressive gains of the last decade will be lost.

这使得仍在战斗的斗士感到十分不安，担忧过去十年来取得的骄人战绩将付之东流。


“We are sitting on a time bomb,” Dr. Mugyenyi told me.

“我们正坐在定时炸弹上 ， ” 莫缘依医生告诉我。


Every day, he is forced into moral choices that no one should have to make.

每天，他都面临着本可避免的良心选择。


How do you choose to treat a young girl but not her little brother?

你怎么忍心治疗一个小女孩而放弃她的弟弟？


How do you turn away a pregnant mother, sitting with her children, crying for help?

怎么忍心放弃和孩子坐在一起、乞求帮助的怀孕母亲？


Surely we can do better.

毫无疑问，我们可以做得更多。


In Kampala, I promised my young friends that I would do everything I could to help.

在坎帕拉，我向我的年轻朋友们承诺将尽我所能提供帮助。


In Washington recently, the United Nations rolled out an action plan that should dramatically accelerate progress on maternal and child health, including HIV.

最近，联合国在华盛顿推出了一项旨在大幅加强母婴健康的行动计划， 其中就包括了艾滋病防治。


At the International AIDS Conference in Vienna, in July, I hope that the international community will rally around UNAIDS’ launch of Treatment 2.0 — the next generation of HIV treatment, which must be more affordable, more effective, and accessible to all.

7月份在维也纳举行的国际艾滋病大会上，我希望国际社会能够支持联合国艾滋病规划署（UNAIDS）的新一代HIV治疗计划 — — Treatment 2.0。 这一计划价格更低、效率更高，而且可以覆盖每一个人。


As chair of this year’s replenishment of the Global Fund, I urge all donors to see to it that countries such as Uganda get the support they need, so that Dr. Mugyenyi and other front-line soldiers in the fight against AIDS need not make those difficult choices.

作为今年全球基金峰会的主席，我敦促所有赞助人都能着眼于让乌干达这样的国家获得所需的支持，着眼于让莫缘依医生及其他艾滋病战争的一线斗士不再需要做出艰难抉择。


I left Uganda with a snatch of song that still echoes within my heart.

在我离开乌干达的时候，那些歌声仍然在我心头萦绕。


Its inherent truth would be obvious, had you been there to see:

歌声所表达的感情如此强烈，只要你到了那里，一定可以感受到：


We are still useful.

我们仍是有用之材，


To our countries, to our families.

能为国家和家庭做出贡献。


All we need is a way to live our days,

我们需要活下去，


All we need is to survive in Africa.

在非洲活下去。


Yes, times are hard.

是的，世事艰难。


That is all the more reason to act out of compassion and with generosity.

因此我们更加需要放开胸怀，不吝同情。


Africa’s Diaspora to the Rescue

非洲海外移民拯救非洲


DAKAR – There is something dismally familiar about the tide of news reports concerning Africa’s increased suffering – more poverty, malnutrition, civil strife, and death – in the face of the recent global financial crisis.

达喀尔 — — 关于此次全球金融危机下的非洲充斥着连篇累牍的熟悉而又令人痛心的报导。 非洲人民所受的苦难越来越深重 — — 贫困、营养不良、内乱和死亡的境况愈来愈严酷。


Almost everywhere, the media translates academic conclusions into graphic illustrations of brutality and despair in places such as Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

几乎在每一个地方，媒体都在用几内亚和刚果民主共和国等地充满残暴和绝望气息的生动故事对这个学术结论进行着诠释。


But there is another, woefully under-reported, side to the story.

但这个故事还有另外一个侧面，而媒体对这个侧面的报导却严重不足。


African countries that were locked out of international capital markets for most of the past five decades have largely been spared the twin woes of financial turmoil and economic downturn.

过去50年来一直被封锁在国际资本市场外的非洲在很大程度上避开了金融动荡和经济衰退的双重困境。


The continent’s economies experienced a slowdown, but not a recession.

非洲大陆的经济增长有所放缓，但却并没有陷入大规模的经济衰退。


Indeed, according to McKinsey & Company, Africa was the third-largest contributor to world economic growth in 2009, after China and India.

事实上，根据麦肯锡公司的统计，非洲是2009年世界经济增长的第三大贡献者，非洲的贡献仅次于中国和印度。


Moreover, several African countries have received ratings from credit agencies, which has opened up global financial centers to them.

此外，有几个非洲国家已经得到信用机构评级，这意味着信用机构的全球金融中心已经对这几个非洲国家开放。


In some cases, these ratings have proved equivalent to or higher than those of countries such as Turkey or Argentina.

在某些情况下，非洲国家的评级已经超过了土耳其或阿根廷，或者至少也与之相当。


Stock exchanges are being established across the continent.

非洲大陆到处都建立了证券交易所。


Furthermore, countries such as China, India, and Brazil has provided a platform for increased exports and the inception of a model of cooperation based on trade, investment, and technology transfer, rather than “aid.”

此外，中国、印度和巴西等国已经建立了平台用于扩大出口，并开创了并非基于“援助 ” 、 而是基于贸易、投资和技术转让的合作模式。


China-Africa trade alone increased from $10 billion in 2000 to $107 billion in 2008, and billions of dollars are being invested in oil production, mining, transportation, electricity generation and transmission, telecommunications, and other infrastructure.

仅中非贸易额就从2000年的100亿美元增长到2008年的1070亿美元，此外还有数十亿美元投向石油开采、采矿、交通运输、发电、电力传输、无线通信和其他基础设施建设。


These developments have combined to improve African countries’ macroeconomic performance dramatically.

这些成就共同改善了非洲国家的宏观经济状况。


Inflation has been halved since the 1990’s, and foreign-exchange reserves have increased 30%.

20世纪90年代通胀降低了一半，而外汇储备则呈现30%的增长。


Public finances showed a 2.8%-of-GDP surplus in 2008, compared to a 1.4%-of-GDP deficit in 2000-2005.

公共财政在2008年出现了占GDP2.8%的盈余，2000－2005年公共财政赤字在GDP中的占比曾为1.4 % 。


Savings rates are between 10% and 20%, and external debt has decreased from 110% of GDP in 2005 to 21% in 2008.

储蓄率徘徊在10－20%之间，而外债则从2005年占GDP的110%下降到2008年占GDP的21 % 。


Since 2000, sub-Saharan African countries have achieved economic growth of 5-7%.

从2000年以来，撒哈拉南部非洲国家已经实现了5-7%的经济增长。


Many factors have contributed to this upturn.

多重因素共同促成了这次经济回暖的现状。


Emerging-market demand has pushed up commodity prices.

新兴市场需求推高了商品价格。


Urbanization has given rise to a dynamic informal sector.

城市化造就了一个活跃的非正规部门。


Improved governance, higher food production, increased inter-regional trade, debt cancellation, better use of official development assistance (ODA), and thriving telecommunications and housing markets have helped as well.

施政改善、扩大粮食产量、区域内贸易增长、债务取消、更合理利用官方发展援助（ODA）和蓬勃发展的电信和住房市场也有助于实现经济增长。


But transfers from the African diaspora stand out as the most significant contributing factor.

但经济恢复最重要的贡献因素是世界各地非洲人的汇款。


A study commissioned by the Rome-based International Fund for Agricultural Development indicates that more than 30 million individuals living outside their countries of origin contribute more than $40 billion annually in remittances to their families and communities back home.

一项由总部设在罗马的国际农业发展基金会发起的研究显示生活在原籍以外的3000多万非洲人每年为国内的家人和社团贡献超过400亿美元的汇款。


For sub-Saharan African countries, remittances increased from $3.1 billion in 1995 to $18.5 billion in 2007, according to the World Bank, representing between 9% and 24% of GDP and 80-750% of ODA.

根据世界银行的统计，撒哈拉以南非洲国家的汇款数额从1995年的31亿美元增长到2007年的185亿美元，这一数字的GDP占比在9%到24%之间，官方发展援助占比则为80－750 % 。


Migrants’ remittance behavior is essentially dictated by the regulatory environment and the quality – in terms of speed, cost, security, and accessibility – of products and services offered by banks, money-transfer companies, micro-finance institutions, and informal operators.

整体监管环境以及银行、汇款公司、小额信贷机构和非���规经营机构的产品和服务质量（包括速度、成本、安全性和易用性）能够对移民的汇款行为造成本质性的影响。


In this respect, there are three different strategies in place in Africa.

在这方面，非洲目前存在三种不同的对策。


The Anglophone strategy focuses on freeing up the remittance market by encouraging competition, relaxing regulatory constraints for non-bank operators, offering financial incentives, encouraging technical and financial innovation, and stimulating collaboration among market players.

英语国家主要通过鼓励竞争、放松对非银行经营者管制、提供财政奖励、鼓励技术及金融创新以及促成市场参与者之间进行合作等方式来放开汇款市场。


This approach, also adopted by Italy, contributes to reducing costs and increasing the overall volume of funds for beneficiaries.

这种方式也被意大利所采用。 它有助于降低成本，增加受益人收到的汇款总额。


The Hispanic approach emphasizes migrants’ involvement in banking by offering a range of banking services in both the country of origin and the host country, products of specific interest to migrants, and low commissions on foreign transfers.

西班牙语国家则通过在移民原籍及其所在国提供各种银行服务、推出与移民利益有特殊关系的产品和手续费低廉的跨国汇款服务来吸引移民参与银行业务。


This approach, widely developed by Morocco and the Portuguese-speaking world, is epitomized by the zero-commission policy initiated by the Spanish bank Santander and its Moroccan counterpart, Attijariwafa Bank.

这种方式被摩洛哥和讲葡萄牙语的国家所广泛采用，其中最具代表性的是由西班牙银行桑坦德集团及其摩洛哥同行阿提哈利瓦法银行首创的零手续费汇款服务。


Finally, the Francophone approach relies on two types of monopoly.

最后，两类垄断构成了法语国家对策的基础。


The first is enjoyed by Western Union, which controls up to 90% of the total formal transfer volume within Africa’s 16-member Franc Zone.

其一是西联的垄断地位，该机构控制了非洲法郎区16国正式汇款高达90%的份额。


Western Union charges fees as high as 25% on transfers to these countries, compared to an average global benchmark of 5%, and has required that Franc-Zone countries sign exclusivity agreements, thereby preventing foreign-exchange bureaux, post offices, and micro-finance institutions from carrying out money transfers.

西联针对这些国家汇款收取高达25%的费用，大大高于全球平均标准的5 % ， 并要求法郎区国家签署独家服务协议，以借此防止外汇局、邮局和小额信贷机构开展货币汇款业务。


The second monopoly is exercised in the banking sector.

法语国家的另外一重垄断存在于银行机构。


France has a veto within the boards of directors of the Franc Zone’s two central banks, while two French commercial banks, BNP-Paribas and Société Générale, exercise a quasi-monopoly on lending programs, mainly centered on short-term trade financing and the needs of governments, public and private companies, and the elite.

法国在法郎区两大央行董事会均握有否决权，与此同时两大法国商业银行 — — 法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行 — — 有权对贷款计划行使准垄断决策，要求贷款计划主要满足短期贸易融资和政府、公私企业及上层人士的需求。


All other local banks have adopted the same approach, severely restricting access to financial services for households and entrepreneurs.

当地其他银行也采用同样的策略，这严重限制了家庭和企业获取金融服务。


Despite the increasing importance of remittances from Italy, Spain, and the United States, the largest share in absolute terms still originates from France.

尽管来自意大利、西班牙和美国的汇款占比越来越大，但绝对意义上的最大额度依然来自于法国。


There is thus a real need in the Franc Zone for a financing institution that would convert migrant remittances into productive investments, thereby generating jobs and wealth, and that would broaden access to banking services, mortgages, insurance products, pension plans, and technical assistance.

因此迫切需要在法郎区出现一家能够将移民汇款转化为高效投资的贷款机构，并以此为起点创造就业机会和财富，能够让更多的人享受到银行服务、抵押贷款、保险产品、养老金计划和技术援助。


Official statistics for 2009 are likely to show that migrants’ remittances fell sharply, as the global recession severely eroded job opportunities abroad.

2009年的官方数据很可能显示移民汇款总额出现大幅度下降，下降的原因是全球经济衰退严重侵蚀了国外的就业机会。


That makes it all the more important that African countries, many of which have laid a strong groundwork for sustainable growth, have a financial system in place that can leverage remittances effectively as the global economy recovers.

在这种情况下，随着全球经济的复苏，非洲国家建立能够有效利用汇款的金融体系就显得至关重要，很多非洲国家都为实现可持续发展奠定了坚实的基础。


Africa’s Dictator-Diplomat

非洲的独裁者外交家


BRUSSELS – The recent death in Brussels of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi finally brings to light what lay behind his mysterious two-month disappearance from public life.

布鲁塞尔—最近，埃塞俄比亚首相泽纳维（Meles Zenawi）在布鲁塞尔逝世，他近两个月以来从公众视野消失之谜终于随之解开。


Ethiopia’s government had strenuously denied rumors of serious ill health caused by liver cancer.

埃塞俄比亚政府一直在否认关于他身患严重肝癌的传闻。


Now that the worst has, indeed, proven true, Ethiopia and all of East Africa will need to learn to live without the stabilizing influence of its great dictator-diplomat.

如今，随着最坏的消息最后得到了证实，埃塞俄比亚和整个东非也因此需要学会如何在没了这位伟大的独裁外交家的稳定影响力的情况下生活。


Meles was certainly both.

泽纳维毫无疑问兼具了双重身份。


Ethiopia has undergone a remarkable transformation under his strongman rule since 1991, when his Tigrayan minority group from the country’s north came to power with the overthrow of the odious Communist Derg led by Mengistu Haile Mariam (still enjoying a comfortable retirement in Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe).

埃塞俄比亚自1991年起便在他的铁腕统治下开始了令人瞩目的转型。 他所属的生活在埃塞俄比亚北部的少数民族提格雷族（Tigray）推翻了马里亚姆（Mengistu Haile Mariam）领导的邪恶的共产主义军政府（马里亚姆如今在穆加贝治下的津巴布韦享受着悠闲的退休生活 ） 。


Initially serving as the president of the first post-Derg government, and then as Ethiopia’s prime minister from 1995 until his death, Meles (his nom de guerre in the revolution) oversaw 7.7% annual GDP growth in recent years.

泽纳维最初是后军政府时代第一届政府的总统，接着又于1995年开始出任埃塞俄比亚总理直至去世。 近几年来，在泽纳维（他的名字Meles是革命时期获得的外号）的领导下，埃塞俄比亚的年GDP增长率高达7.7 % 。


Strong economic performance is somewhat surprising, given his party’s interventionist policy approach, but Meles showed himself to be a consummate pragmatist in attracting investment – particularly from China – to drive growth.

强劲的经济表现有些出人意料，因为他所在的政党采取的是干涉主义政策模式，但泽纳维本人在吸引投资（主要来自中国）推动增长方面是个不折不扣的实用主义者。


Meles’s own political provenance as the leader of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front was Marxist-Leninist.

泽纳维以提格雷人民解放阵线（Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front）领导人出身，其政治背景是马克思列宁主义的。


But, when the Cold War ended, so, too, did his dogmatism.

但是，随着冷战的结束，他也抛弃了马列主义教条。


To his credit, child mortality was reduced by 40% under his government; Ethiopia’s economy became more diversified, with new industries like car manufacturing, beverages, and floriculture; and major infrastructure projects, including Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, were launched.

在他的政府治下，婴儿死亡率下降了40 % ； 埃塞俄比亚经济实现了多样化，出现了汽车制造、餐饮、花卉等新产业；还建成了一系列主要基础设施工程，包括非洲最大的水电大坝 — — 这些都要记在他的功劳簿上。


Once a basket-case associated in the world’s eyes only with famine and drought, Ethiopia has become one of Africa’s largest economies – and without the benefit of gold or oil.

埃塞俄比亚曾是饥饿和干旱的代名词，但现如今它已成为非洲最大经济体之一 — — 而且是在不靠黄金和石油的情况下取得的。


Perhaps more important than Meles’s domestic achievements was his diplomatic record.

也许比泽纳维的国内成就更重要的是他的外交记录。


He was an indispensable ally of the West in the fight against Islamist terrorism, culminating in Ethiopia’s military operation in neighboring Somalia in 2006.

他是西方必不可少的对抗伊斯兰恐怖主义的盟友，2006年埃塞俄比亚对邻国索马里的军事行动是这一角色的巅峰之作。


More recently, Meles coordinated efforts with Kenya to stage limited strikes against the al-Shabaab militia, which has waged an unrelenting war to turn Somalia into a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy.

最近，泽纳维与肯尼亚一起合作对青年军（al-Shabaab）进行了有限打击。 青年军一直在试图把索马里转变为原教旨伊斯兰神权国家。


At the same time, Meles courted China as both an investor and as a hedge against the West’s criticism of his human-rights record.

与此同时，泽纳维还吸引中国，既作为投资者，也作为西方对其人权纪录批评的挡箭牌。


And yet he controversially but rightly held out a hand of friendship to the breakaway region of Somaliland, before it became fashionable, and went as far as he could short of formal re-recognition of that ray of democratic hope in the Horn of Africa.

此外，他还���受争议但正确地向索马里兰分裂地区伸出了友谊之手，此时这一举动还远未成为时尚。 他还竭尽全力促成正式重启谈判，为非洲之角带来民主的希望之光。


Meles will be sorely missed in Hargeisa, as he planned to run a Chinese-financed gas pipeline through Somaliland territory from the Ogaden to the coast.

泽纳维将会被哈尔格萨（Hargeisa）人民永远铭记，因为他计划在索马里兰领土上建造一条从奥加登（Ogaden）到海边的输气管道，资金由中国提供。


More important, Meles put Addis Ababa on the map as the home of the African Union, and as a capital where Africa’s worst problems could be discussed in a pragmatic manner, unburdened by colonial grudges.

更重要的是，泽纳维让亚的斯亚贝巴成为非洲联盟的总部，该市也成为能够务实讨论非洲最严重问题的非洲之都。


Meles himself became a major diplomatic player, particularly over climate-change policy, and most recently was active in mediating border and natural-resource disputes between Sudan and the newly independent (and oil-rich) South Sudan.

泽纳维本人也在外交舞台上长袖善舞，特别是在气候变化问题上，最近，他还积极地为斡旋苏丹和新独立的（富油的）南苏丹之间边境和自然资源之争奔走。


He will be remembered for accepting the painful secession of Eritrea in 1993, rather than prolong the civil war, and for his efforts to reach an agreement with Egypt over the use of the Blue Nile waters.

他将因在1993年痛苦地接受厄立特里亚独立而不是延长了内战时间而被人铭记，也将因与埃及达成了如何使用青尼罗河河水的协议而被人铭记。


The great stain on Meles’s record will always be his intolerance of dissent.

对持异见者的不容忍是泽纳维的一大污点。


To be sure, his human-rights record was far better than the Derg’s.

平心而论，他的人权纪录比军政府好多了。


For example, he allowed a private press to flourish, and in 2000 he became the first Ethiopian leader to hold multi-party parliamentary elections.

比如，他允许私人出版社的经营，在2000年，他还成为首位主持多党议会选举的埃塞俄比亚领导人。


Moreover, compared to neighboring Eritrea under President Isaias Afewerki or Omar al-Bashir’s Sudan, his regime was by no means the worst offender in the region.

此外，与阿费沃尔基（Isaias Afewerki）总统治下的厄立特里亚和巴希尔的苏丹等邻国相比，他的政权绝对称不上是该地区的头号罪犯。


Nor was there much evidence of personal enrichment or widespread corruption.

埃塞俄比亚也没有多少中饱私囊和腐败横行的证据。


Nevertheless, following a violently contested parliamentary election in 2005, in which more than 30 parties participated, Meles demonstrated open contempt for democratic pluralism and press freedom, jailing several journalists in recent years.

尽管如此，在2005年经历了有30多个政党参与的竞争惨烈的议会选举之后，泽纳维公开对民主多元论和言论自由表示鄙夷，并在最近几年囚禁了多位记者。


At the same time, he imposed increasingly strict central control on his ethnically and linguistically diverse country.

与此同时，对于他统治的在种族和语言上多样化程度极高的国家，他采取了越来越严格的中央控制。


Although nominally governed by “ethnic federalism,” where this threatened secession, as in Oromia or the Ogaden, Meles was quick to ignore the constitutional set-up.

尽管名义上埃塞俄比亚是“民族联邦制”国家，但若出现分裂危险 — — 比如奥罗米亚（Oromia）和奥加登 — — 泽纳维很快就放弃了这一宪法规定。


Although he strengthened religious freedom and peaceful coexistence between Muslims and Christians, the human-rights situation in Ethiopia remained poor.

尽管他加强了宗教自由和穆斯林和基督徒之间的和平共存，但埃塞俄比亚的人权状况依然很差。


For example, groups like Freedom House and Human Rights Watch have documented widespread official repression of the Oromo people.

比如，自由之家和人权观察等组织就报告说奥罗莫族遭受了普遍的官方压迫。


And yet Meles is irreplaceable – unmatched intellectually as an African leader (he dropped out of medical school, but went on to teach himself impeccable English and obtain European university degrees by correspondence), and unmatched politically at home, with no obvious successor groomed to replace him.

但泽纳维是不可替代的 — — 作为非洲领导人，他的智商无与伦比（他曾经学医，辍学后自学英语直到熟练掌握，并通过函授获得了欧洲大学的学位 ） ， 在国内，他的政治能力也无与伦比，没有显而易见的继任者能够取代他。


In the Horn of Africa, there is no leader of his stature who could ensure the stability and strong governance that the region so desperately needs.

在非洲之角，没有人能像他那样能够确保该地区继续的稳定而强硬的治理。


Hailemariam Desalegn, Meles’s foreign minister, will take over Ethiopia’s government.

泽纳维的外交部长德萨勒恩（Hailenmarian Desalegn）将执掌埃塞俄比亚政府。


But there will be considerable concern in the West about the danger of a power vacuum or struggle in a geopolitically vital but fractious country – and just when neighboring Somalia is supposed to be undergoing a transition to a new parliament and elected government.

但西方很担心出现权力真空或在一个具有极高地缘政治重要性但又极难对付的国家出现斗争，而与此同时相邻的索马里又正好即将经历通向新议会和选举政府的转型。


For his admirers and critics alike, Meles leaves behind a potent political legacy.

毁也好，誉也罢，泽纳维身后留下了强有力的政治遗产。


He will be remembered as an African leader of major historical significance: visionary, despotic, and indispensable.

他将作为具有重大历史影响力的非洲领导人被人铭记：远见卓识、暴虐专横又不可或缺。


Africa’s Economic House Divided

难以维系的非洲经济


DAKAR – The world economic downturn and financial-market tremors have strained budgets across Africa.

达喀尔 — — 世界经济衰退和金融市场震荡已经导致非洲国家预算紧张。


With the exception of Ghana, and a few other states, in 2009 most African countries’ fiscal balances deteriorated.

除加纳和少数几个其他国家之外，2009年绝大多数非洲国家的财政收支状况均呈现恶化态势。


But, thanks to prudent management of public finances during previous periods of robust growth, a significant number of African countries have endured the current crisis in better fiscal shape than during past crises.

但多亏在之前的强劲增长期对公共财政的审慎管理，相当数量的非洲国家在这次危机中的财政状况强过以往的历次危机。


In 2009, aggregate GDP growth in Africa averaged 1.6%, down from about 5.7% during the 2002-2008 period – but growth all the same.

2009年，非洲各国合计平均GDP增长为1.6 % ， 较之2002－2008年间的5.7%有所下降，但仍然呈现增长态势。


Moreover, several African countries continued to implement long-term reforms to improve their business and investment climate, despite the daunting challenges presented by the crisis.

此外，尽管面临金融危机的严峻挑战，但一些非洲国家仍继续推进改善商业和投资环境的长期改革措施。


Now that international trade and global industrial production are on the mend, sub-Saharan economies look set for more robust growth, as demand for and prices of oil and other minerals rebound and general economic activity resumes.

当前国际贸易和全球工业生产正逐渐好转，随着石油和其他矿产品需求及价格反弹和一般经济活动恢复，撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家似乎增长会更加强劲。


Of course, numerous downside risks – adverse weather shocks, military conflict, and political turmoil – still can undermine the hard-earned benefits of this social and economic record.

当然，恶劣天气的冲击、军事冲突和政治动荡等多种下行风险仍然可以破坏这一社会经济记录的来之不易的收益。


But it is the dichotomized nature of their economies and finances that represents Africa’s most intractable structural imbalance.

但让非洲最棘手的结构性失衡却是其经济和金融结构的二元化属性。


Frankly, two Africa’s are emerging: a modern economy and a cash-based economy.

坦率地说，有两个非洲正在崛起： 一个是现代经济的非洲，而另一个则是以现金为基础的经济。


Across Africa, almost all governments praise – some honestly, some not – economic modernization as the cornerstone of prosperity and the yardstick by which their effectiveness should be measured. Many boast of the modernity of the financial infrastructure of their economies, which is based on an entire set of legal, regulatory, accounting, credit reporting, and payment and settlement systems.

在非洲国家，无论由衷与否，几乎所有政府都将经济现代化奉为繁荣的基石和自身执政效率的衡量标准而推崇备至。 许多国家夸耀自身金融基础设施的现代化，这种现代化的金融基础设施是以一整套法律、法规、会计、征信、支付和结算系统为基础建立的。


National payment systems operate electronic-based payment products and services.

国家支付系统推出一系列电子支付产品和服务。


A high-value inter-bank funds-transfer system settles transactions in real time, eliminates credit risk between system participants, increases circulation of funds, and enhances monetary-policy implementation.

一套具有极高价值的银行间资金转移系统负责进行实时交易结算、消除系统参与者之间的信用风险、加速资金周转，以及改善货币政策的实施。


Banks are provided with a facility to monitor their positions in real time and hence make cost-effective investment decisions.

这套系统为银行提供实施监管头寸的相关工具，从而辅助它们做出符合成本效益原则的投资决策。


So far, only a few registered financial institutions, primarily offshoots of Western commercial banks, have access to such payment-system facilities.

目前，只有西方商业银行分支机构等少数几家注册金融机构获准使用这套付款系统设施。


Non-banking financial institutions such as foreign exchange bureaus, post offices, and micro-finance lenders are not admitted, even when they are financially sound and sustainable.

外汇局、邮局和小额信贷机构等非银行金融机构即使财务健全、有持续发展能力也没有资格进入。


The effects of banks’ hijacking of national payment systems to service only the modern economy are compounded by the exclusive agreements that banks and money-transfer companies such as Western Union have signed with most African countries.

银行和西联等汇款公司与多数非洲国家签订的独家协议进一步加剧了银行劫持国家支付系统、只为现代经济服务的恶果。


These agreements lock out non-banking entities from the highly lucrative market for migrant remittances from the African diaspora, which remain a key engine of growth.

上述协议将非银行机构排除在利润丰厚的非洲散居移民汇款市场之外，而散居移民汇款一直是非洲经济增长的重要引擎。


Yet rapid urbanization everywhere in Africa has given rise to a dynamic informal sector unconnected to the modern economy.

但非洲各地快速城市化已经催生出一个与现代经济无关的活跃的非正规部门。


Although marginalized by African officials, this cash-based economy is a major contributor to the continent’s productive capacity.

虽然被非洲官员边缘化，但上述以现金为基础的经济仍然是这块大陆生产率的主要贡献者。


It employs more than 90% of the workforce and is home to 75% of the retailers.

这个部门吸纳了超过90%的劳动者和75%的零售业者。


But, despite the pivotal economic role that the informal sector plays, it has no access to conventional bank loans.

但尽管上述非正规部门发挥了如此关键的经济作用，它仍然不具备获得传统银行贷款的资格。


Micro-finance institutions provide the only credit lines open to informal operators.

微型金融机构提供了向非正规经营者们开放的唯一的信贷额度。


The micro-finance business model is based on lending that is guaranteed by the group.

集体担保贷款是小额信贷的惯用商业模式。 这种模式进而转化为减轻信贷风险并鼓励付款纪律的休戚相关的网络和支持机制。


This translates into a solidarity network and a support mechanism that mitigates credit risk and encourages payment discipline. Credit repayment in well-managed micro-finance institutions is around 95%. All studies undertaken in the area have also revealed that women are not only the most active among informal-sector entrepreneurs, but they are also quicker to meet their commitments.

管理状况良好的小额信贷机构其信贷还款率为95%左右。 相关领域进行的所有研究也显示女性不仅是非正规经济部门最活跃的企业家，而且也能更迅速地兑现她们的承诺。


African states must now recognize that modernizing their informal sectors by integrating them into the modern economy can be a major development tool. Yet only a few countries have started moving in that direction.

非洲国家现在必须意识到将非正规部门现代化并纳入现代经济范畴能够成为一种重要的发展工具。 但只有几个国家开始进行这方面的努力。


Nigeria has refrained from signing any exclusive agreements with Western Union and others, and its newly consolidated banking industry is making significant inroads across the region.

尼日利亚已经拒绝与西联和其他企业签订独家协议，这个国家最新完成整合的银行业在区域内的进展非常迅速。


Rwanda, too, has enacted regulations that eliminate exclusive agreements, opening doors for micro-finance institutions to become payment-service providers.

卢旺达也已经通过了废除独家协议的法规，并向小额信贷机构敞开大门，吸纳它们加入支付服务提供商的队伍。


The South African Reserve Bank has created a special platform within its national payment system for micro-finance institutions and non-banks.

而南非储备银行已经在国家支付系统内部为小额信贷及非银行机构建立了一个特别的平台。


Malawi’s national payments system is directly accessible to non-bank participants, including third-party service providers.

马拉维的国家支付系统直接对包括第三方服务提供商在内的非银行参与者开放。


Giving micro-finance institutions access to national and regional payments systems and electronic retail facilities will go a long way toward meeting the requirements of the retail and business sector in terms of banking facilities.

允许小额信贷机构使用国家和地区支付系统及电子零售设施将会在银行信贷领域对满足零售和商业部门的需求产生很大的帮助。


It will also help facilitate access by the poorest to financial services, thus helping to reduce the high proportion of the un-banked population.

这样也有助于底层贫困人口使用金融服务，从而降低不使用银行服务的人口比例。


All of this will invariably spur development and integration of national financial systems and intra-regional trade.

所有这些总能促进国家金融系统和区内贸易的发展和整合。


This will be a welcome development, because a large proportion of intra-regional trade is carried out by informal operators and small and medium enterprises that do not have access to the banking system.

这样的发展趋势令人欣慰，因为很大比例的区域内贸易来自那些无权利用银行系统的非正规经营者及中小企业。


Moreover, economic integration and increased intra-regional trade are the best entry point into global markets for all countries.

此外，经济整合和加强区域贸易是所有国家进军全球市场的最佳切入点。


When it comes to analyzing what ails Africa, it is customary to dwell at length on the continent’s traumatic past.

每每谈到对非洲存在问题的分析，人们总是习惯于不厌其烦地历数这块大陆满是创伤的过去。


But it strains the imagination to link Africa’s colonial-era pains with the willingness of African leaders to spend a fortune to equip their countries with state-of-the-art settlement systems, and then proceed to exclude their citizens from using them.

但是将非洲殖民时代的阵痛与非洲领导人耗费巨资为国家建设最先进的结算系统，而后又禁止本国公民对其加以利用这两者联系在一起却似乎超出了人们的想象力。


Abraham Lincoln once said that a house divided cannot stand.

亚伯拉罕·林肯曾经说过“不顺则不立 ” 。


There is an economic corollary to this: an economic house divided cannot prosper.

这句话在经济领域的推论是： 繁荣只能来自于高效顺畅的经济关系。


Africa’s Hard Black Gold

非洲的硬黑金


LAGOS - Few infrastructure services in the developed world may be as taken for granted as electric power.

拉各斯 - - 在发达国家中，没有什么基础设施服务项目比电力更为普及、人们更为习以为常的了。


To consumers in industrialized countries, uninterrupted power supply is a given.

对于工业化国家的消费者而言，不中断的电力供应是天经地义的。


Not so in much of Africa, which experiences some of the world’s greatest power deficits, and where only two in ten people have access to electricity.

但是这在非洲并非如此。 非洲的几个地方是全世界电力短缺最为严重的，只有百分之二十的人口有电力供应。


According to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, in 2007 alone, nearly two-thirds of the countries in the region experienced an acute energy crisis marked by frequent and extended electricity outages.

国际货币基金组织最新发表的非洲萨哈拉以南地区经济展望指出，仅仅在2007年，该地区三分之二的国家存在极度能源危机，表现为经常持续断电。


There is no shortage of hydropower plants for electricity generation in Africa.

非洲并不乏水电站发电。


However, many of these plants are unable to keep up with rapid population growth and attendant increases in demand.

但是，许多这些电站无法跟上快速人口增长以及随之而来的需求增加。


Furthermore, they are prone to frequent drought, which reduces their output significantly, leaving many as little more than decorative infrastructure landmarks.

而且，这些电站还要受到频繁的干旱影响。 干旱会大幅度降低电力产量，使得很多电站成为基础设施点缀而已。


Increasingly burgeoning populations in countries like Nigeria and Ghana imply a greater extraction of water resources for power generation.

尼日利亚和加纳等国人口越发膨胀，意味着要加大抽取水资源用于发电。


Rapid expansion of agricultural activity is requiring more and more water all across the continent.

农业活动迅速扩大，对整个非洲大陆的用水提出了更高的需求。


Other resources like fuel oil, diesel, light crude, solar, and gas are also available as means of electricity generation, but their costs are all quite prohibitive.

燃油、煤油、轻原油、太阳能以及天然气等其他资源也可以用于发电，但是它们的成本过高，无法供应。


These factors make a good argument for coal as a cheap alternative source of Africa's power.

这些因素使得人们可以提出使用煤炭作为便宜的非洲电力替代资源。


Coal has historically played a crucial role as a source of energy worldwide, and has several important advantages over other fossil fuels.  First is its relative abundance.

在历史上，煤炭作为全世界的能源来源发挥了关键作用，而且对于其他矿物燃料拥有几个重要的优势。


The current level of proven coal reserves worldwide stands at roughly 850 billion tons.

首先是煤炭储量相对丰富。 目前全世界探明的煤炭储量大约是8500亿吨。


Africa has about 50 billion tons.

非洲有大约500亿吨。


Coal is also much more widely distributed geographically than any other fossil fuel.

煤炭要比其他任何矿物燃料分布更为广泛。


Worldwide energy demand has increased by more than 50% since 1980, and is expected to grow annually by 1.6% between now and 2030.

从1980年以来，全球能源需求增加了50%以上，而且预计将会从现在起到2030年每年增加1.6 % 。


More than 70% of this new demand will come from developing countries, with fossil fuels projected to account for about 80% of total energy demand by the end of this period.

这一新需求的70%以上来自发展中国家。 预计，矿物燃料将在这一期间末占全部能源需求的大约80 % 。


Coal is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel, with annual production increasing by 6.4% since 2004.

煤炭是世界上增长最快的矿物燃料，从2004年以来年产量递增6.4 % 。


It is already the dominant source of power generation in some very important energy-consuming nations.

在某些十分重要的能源消费国家中，煤炭已经统领电力来源。


Much of the future increases in coal-fired electricity generation will come from strategically important developing countries like China and India.

中国和印度等战略上重要的发展中国家将会是未来煤炭发电增长的主要国家。


In 2006 alone, China added about 93,000 megawatts of coal- fired electricity generating capacity, and this trend is expected to continue as the country tries to meet its huge energy needs.

仅仅在2006年，中国增加了大约93000百万瓦特的煤炭发电产量，而且这一趋势预计将会随着中国努力满足其巨大的能源需求而继续。


Even in many developed countries, coal still accounts for a large share of power generation.

即使在许多发达国家，煤炭依然占据发电量的很大一部分。


Coal plants currently provide more than half of America’s electricity supply.

美国电力供应的一半以上来自于煤电厂。


Denmark, which houses some of the most efficient coal-fired power plants in the world, equally relies on coal for half of its electricity production.

丹麦拥有一些全世界最为高效的煤电厂，其煤炭发电占据半壁河山。


The same is true for Germany, which is home to some of the most efficient pulverized coal combustion units in Europe.

德国也是一样，它拥有一些欧洲最为高效的粉煤燃烧电厂。


Poland uses coal for 98% of its electricity production, and South Africa uses coal for about 50% of its electricity production.

波兰电力生产的98%使用煤炭，而南非则为大约一半。


Against this picture then, it is hard not to expect developing countries to exploit their abundant coal resources to generate power for their own development, especially given that modern technology can help produce coal cleanly.

因此，在这种背景下，特别是鉴于现代技术可以帮助以清洁的方式产煤，人们很难不料想发展中国家会开发其丰富的煤炭资源来为其自身发展提供电力。


Some argue that gas might be a better alternative to hydro or coal, but for countries that must import much of their gas the benefits of a stable and reliable source of cheap fuel in the form of coal present a very strong counter-argument to the capital costs of a gas plant.

有人认为，天然气或许是水力或者煤炭更好的替代之物。 但是对于必须进口大部分天然气的国家而言，以煤炭作为稳定和可靠的便宜燃料来源益处多多，而天然气电厂需要资本投入，因此煤炭是强有力的反驳。


Unlike prices for coal, which is abundant and dispersed geographically, gas prices are subject to significant volatility, and the long-term trend in the face of fossil fuel depletion is uncertain.

煤炭储量丰富，分布广泛。 与煤炭价格相比，天然气价格波动巨大，而且，在矿物燃料殆尽的情况下，其长期趋势也不明朗。


In contrast, coal prices are more stable, and may remain that way for a long time.

比较而言，煤炭价格更为稳定，也可能持续很长一段时间。


Apart from electric-power generation, coal also has wide application in a number of industries.

除了发电，煤炭还广泛应用于其他几个产业。


It is pivotal in both steel and cement production.

它是钢铁和水泥生产的关键要素。


Moreover, the use of wood by Africa’s growing population is causing increasingly rapid deforestation in many countries.

而且，非洲越来越多的人口使用木材正在许多国家造成森林迅速退化。


There is significant potential domestic demand for coal briquettes to replace wood for cooking and domestic and industrial heating.

煤饼的潜在需求巨大，以取代木材用于做饭、家用和工业取暖。


The demand outlook thus appears favorable for the coal industry, creating significant investment opportunities.

因此，煤炭产业的需求前景颇佳，从而创造巨大的投资机遇。


Clearly, there are environmental drawbacks from the use of coal as an energy resource, and these concerns are far too important to overlook.

很明显，使用煤炭作为一种能源会产生环境倒退，而且人们不能忽视这些巨大的担忧。


The massive reserves notwithstanding, coal is still a finite resource.

尽管储藏巨大，但是煤炭依旧是有限资源。


It must be mined with greater efficiency and with a view to mitigating the environmental impact.

因此，必须更为高效地开采煤炭并且顾及减少环境影响。


Fortunately, much greater attention is paid today to mine safety and the management of the by-products of coal use.

所幸的是，如今人们对煤矿安全以及管理煤炭使用的副产品更为关注。


With acid rain and other public-health hazards linked to coal combustion, more technologies are emerging for reducing harmful emissions from power plants.

酸雨和其他公共健康危害与煤炭燃烧有关，越来越多的技术正在涌现以减少发电厂的有害排放。


Fueled by research, the past few years have witnessed the development of increasingly cleaner and more energy-efficient coal-fired generation plants and the retirement of older technologies, especially in the developed world.

过去几年中，受到研发推动，越发清洁、更为高效的煤电厂建成，而且，特别是在发达国家中旧技术正在淘汰。


Developing countries have lagged behind in this process, but, with the common threat of global warming, there is now growing pressure to adopt conservation policies.

发展中国家在这一进程中已经落后，但是，随着全球变暖的共��威胁，现在采纳保护环境政策的压力越来越大。


Africa's mineral-rich countries must exploit their abundant natural resources.

非洲矿物储量丰富的国家必须利用它们丰富的自然资源。


They must use coal to advance their economic development.

它们必须使用煤炭来推进经济发展。


Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity at a time when African countries must avail themselves of all available resources for poverty reduction.

当前，非洲国家必须利用所有可资利用的资源脱贫，否则就会坐失良机。


Africa’s Immunity

非洲的免疫


ACCRA – The United States suffers rising job losses.

阿克拉—越来越多的美国人丢掉了工作。


Britain nationalizes its banks.

英国对银行实行国有化。


Once high-flying small economies like Ireland, Hungary, and Iceland break down.

爱尔兰，匈牙利，冰岛等一度腾飞的小型经济体垮掉了。


Even robust China and India are experiencing slower growth, curtailed ambitions, and broken dreams.

甚至连生机勃勃的中国和印度也在放慢增长速度，雄心被抑制，美梦正破碎。


Yet, in sub-Saharan Africa, there are few hints of the global financial crisis that is consuming the capitalist world.

但是，在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，却几乎看不到全球金融危机的影响，虽然这场危机正在毁掉资本主义世界。


In fashionable African cities, residential home prices remain stratospheric.

在时髦的非洲城市，住宅房屋的价格依然高不可攀。


A typical Western-style house in Kampala or Accra, for example, now costs an astonishing two to three times the price of a comparable home in, say, Cleveland or other cities in the American heartland.

例如，比起克里夫兰或是美国心脏地带其他城市里类似的房子，坎帕拉和阿克拉城里一栋典型的西式房屋现在的价格要高出一到两倍，这令人惊奇。


While home prices are crashing from Madrid to Dublin and Miami to Los Angeles, African prices remain near or at record-high levels.

从马德里到都柏林，从迈阿密到洛杉矶，房价一路狂跌，而非洲房价却接近或者正处于有史以来的最高水平。


African banks, meanwhile, are rock-solid compared to their debt-heavy counterparts in the US and Europe.

与此同时，比起身负重债的美国和欧洲银行，非洲银行坚如磐石。


While international bankers went bust by making legions of bad loans, African bankers stuck to earning profits the old-fashioned way: paying very little to depositors, and earning a big “spread” by buying guaranteed government debt, which yielded healthy returns.

当国际银行家们因为发放了大批不良贷款而破产的时候，非洲银行家坚持采用老派方法来赚取利润：付给存款人很少的利息，同时通过购买有担保的政府债务来获得大额差价， 这些债务会带来健康稳定的回报。


Even government deficit spending – long the bane of Africa – seems positively puny compared to the massive debts that the US and some European countries face.

和美国以及一些欧洲国家面临的巨额债务相比，甚至连政府的赤字开支—长久以来这一直是非洲的祸害—似乎也完全是微不足道的。


The new Obama administration is proposing spending plans that would create a record US deficit of more than one trillion dollars – and this coming on top of the outgoing Bush administration’s record deficit.

新的奥巴马政府提出了开支计划，其中赤字超过一万亿美元，这会创下新的纪录。 而这还是在刚离任的布什政府已经创下了有史以来的最高赤字之后。


And yet there are good reasons to believe that it is just a matter of time before Africa and its peoples experience the ill effects of the global crisis.

尽管如此，仍然有可靠的原因让我们相信非洲和它的人民将会吞下全球危机的恶果，这只是个时间问题而已。


From Ghana to Kenya, governments are having increased difficulty in raising money for infrastructure projects and selling official debt.

从加纳到肯尼亚，政府为基础设施项目融资和出售政府债务时面临的困难正在增加。


Foreign investment in sub-Saharan Africa, which reached record levels in recent years, is retreating, which is evidence of investor caution, not any underlying lack of optimism about the region.

近年来，外国在撒哈拉以南地区的投资创下新高，但这些投资正在撤出。 这意味着投资者开始谨慎行事，他们不再掩饰对这个地区缺乏信心。


And exports of raw materials to China, India, Europe, and the US – a key factor in Africa’s recent growth surge – may suffer simply because the global slowdown means less consumption everywhere.

向中国，印度，欧洲和美国出口原材料是非洲最近经济飙升的一个关键因素，但这种出口可能受挫，因为全球经济下滑意味着每个地区都会减少消费。


All of these factors suggest that an African financial bust is possible.

所有这些因素都表明非洲可能发生金融破产。


Popular equity investments, such as shares in Safaricom, are already trading at unexpectedly low levels.

流行的股权投资，例如Safaricom里面的股份，已经在以低得出乎意料的水平进行交易了。


If real estate prices were to fall dramatically, a chain reaction could occur, taking down big and small investors alike, and over time causing wide suffering to ordinary Africans.

如果地产价格急剧下降，就会发生连锁反应，大小投资者同样受困，一段时间过后还会给许多普通非洲民众带来痛苦。


Even assuming stability in real estate prices, the global crisis surely will cause a fall in remittances by Africans working good jobs in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, and the Middle East.

即使假设地产价格稳定，全球危机也必然会导致在外工作的非洲人士减少汇款。 这些人工作优渥，呆在欧洲，美国，加拿大，澳大利亚和中东。


Remittances are already believed to be falling, which makes sense: immigrants in rich countries are and will be disproportionately hurt by slowing economic activity.

人们已经相信汇款额会下降，这不难理解：经济活动减缓正在，而且将要，极大伤害迁往富裕国家的移民。


Immigration itself may even slow dramatically, depending on the length and depth of the economic slowdown.

基于经济衰退的长度和深度，甚至移民活动本身也会急剧减少。


Fewer Africans working in rich countries will automatically translate into less money circulating in African countries.

当在富裕国家工作的非洲人数量减少时，这自然会导致在非洲国家里流动的钱也会变少


The decline in remittances, however, cuts both ways.

然而，减少汇款具有正反两面作用。


Remittances have long spurred inflation in many parts of Africa.

长期以来，汇款刺激了非洲很多地方的通货膨胀。


A Ugandan doctor working in Norway, for instance, cares little about the cost of a beer in Kampala.

例如，一位在挪威工作的乌干达医生很少关注坎帕拉一瓶啤酒的价格。


He is also willing – and able – to pay more than a local doctor for services and, of course, a home in Uganda.

和一位当地医生相比，他愿意并且能够为接受服务—当然还有一个在乌干达的家—支付更多的钱。


Fewer remittances flowing into Uganda could mean less economic activity – or simply lower prices.

流入乌干达的汇款减少意味着经济活动减少，或者就是价格降低。


The financial meltdown in the US, which incubated the global crisis, is either coming under control or threatening to mutate into a new, more virulent form that could destroy not only America’s paper economy of trading and brokering, but also its real economy of goods and services.

这场引发全球危机的美国金融崩溃不是被控制下来，就是有可能演变成新一波更致命的崩溃。 新一轮的崩溃将不止会摧毁美国由交易业务和经纪业务构建的虚拟经济（paper economy ） ， 还将搞跨货物和服务构成的实体经济。


President Barack Obama, acting as if the latter scenario remains likely, is betting on large-scale government spending to prop up the real economy.

总统巴拉克·奥巴马现在的行事风格就像后一种情况可能发生一样，他打赌大规模的政府开支将支撑起实体经济。


If his administration succeeds, the chances that Africa will remain relatively unscathed will grow.

如果他的政策成功了，就会相应增加非洲得以幸免的机会。


Even if Obama fails, however, Africans should escape the worst of the global crisis, for both good reasons and bad.

不过，即使奥巴马失败了，非洲也应该能逃出全球危机的最重灾区，其原因好坏参半。


The good reasons have to do with African self-reliance and a growing awareness among scholars and policymakers that trade within the region – especially between urban and rural Africa – will ultimately deliver enormous benefits.

好的原因关乎非洲的自力更生，而且学者和决策者们越来越意识到地区内的贸易，尤其是非洲的城乡贸易，最终将会带来巨大的收益。


Another factor working in Africa’s favor is its private companies’ and consumers’ low dependence on borrowed money.

另外一个对非洲有利的因素是这里的私人公司和消费者很少依赖借来的钱。


People tend to pay cash for goods and services, however costly.

人们倾向于用现金来支付货物和服务，不论有多贵。


In the US, loans for cars and homes – loans that now aren’t being paid back – are the major factor behind the financial crisis.

在美国，买房买车的贷款（那些现在收不回来的贷款）是金融危机后面的主要���素。


In Africa, very few people borrow money for such purchases.

而非洲只有极少数人借钱买这些东西。


Africa’s cash-based economy has in the past constrained development.

过去，非洲以现金为基础的经济阻碍了发展。


After all, by allowing people to spend more than they have, borrowed money can fuel growth.

毕竟，通过允许人们超前消费，借来的钱可以为经济助燃。


But today, Africa’s pay-as-you-go practices are a powerful defense against financial contagion.

但今天，非洲“现收现付”的习俗成了抵御金融危机蔓延的有力保障。


Another way of looking at Africa’s paradoxical economic position is to admit that the region’s historical marginalization within the international financial system – so costly in times of global plenty – is proving to be an unexpected benefit when the wealthiest of the world are sick unto death.

观察非洲自相矛盾的经济状况时，另一种方法是承认该地区历史上一直被全球金融体制边缘化，结果在世界繁荣的时候损失惨重。 然而在全球最富裕的国家病入膏肓的时候，这一点反而成了是一个出人意料的益处。


Ensuring Africa’s Continued Rise

确保非洲继续崛起


LAGOS – Africa’s rise is in danger of faltering.

拉各斯—非洲的崛起有夭折的危险。


After years during which the continent’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 5%, global uncertainty, depressed commodity prices, and jittery external conditions are threatening to undermine decades of much-needed progress.

在经历了多年年均5%的经济增长后，全球不确定性、大宗商品价格低迷以及不利的外部条件有可能破坏几十年来急需的进步。


Ensuring the wealth and wellbeing of the continent’s residents will not be easy; but there is much that policymakers can do to put Africa back on an upward trajectory.

确保非洲居民的财富和福祉绝非易事；但决策者可以想很多办法帮助非洲重回向上轨迹。


First and foremost, policymakers must secure the financing needed to pursue sustainable development in an uncertain global environment.

首先也是最重要的是，决策者必须确保所需要的资金在不确定的全球环境中追求可持续发展。


The World Bank estimates that Africa will require at least $93 billion a year to fund its infrastructure needs alone.

世界银行估计，光是基础设施资金，非洲每年就至少需要930亿美元。


Climate-friendly, sustainable infrastructure will cost even more.

气候友好型可持续基础设施的成本更高。


And yet, as long as global growth remains weak, Africans cannot count on developed countries to fully honor their commitments to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals.

但是，只要全球增长持续低迷，非洲人就无法指望发达国家充分兑现它们帮助实现可持续发展目标的承诺。


Africa must rapidly develop its own resources, beginning by nearly doubling tax revenues.

非洲必须迅速开发其自身的资源，第一步是将税收收入提高近一倍。


Across Sub-Saharan Africa, tax revenues account for less than one-fifth of GDP, compared to more than one-third in OECD countries.

在整个撒哈拉以南非洲，税收收入还不到GDP的五分之一，而经合组织国家这一比例高达三分之一以上。


This means there is plenty of room for improvement.

这意味着还有巨大的改善空间。


From 1990 to 2004, for example, Ghana reformed its tax system and raised revenues from 11% to 22% of GDP.

比如，从1999年到2004年，加纳改革了其税收制度，税收收入占GDP之比从11%增加到22 % 。


Admittedly, such progress is difficult; in Nigeria, we saw an opportunity in raising non-oil tax revenues, but struggled to seize it.

诚然，取得这样的进步是困难的；在尼日利亚，我们也看到了提高非石油税收收入的机会，但难以抓住它。


Another source of domestic resources is the roughly $380 billion in pension assets held by just ten African countries.

另一个国内资源是十个非洲国家所持有的大约3,800亿美元退休金资产。


Policymakers should be leveraging these considerable sums.

决策者应该利用这一数量可观的资金。


At the same time, African countries will have to find a way to diversify their economies.

与此同时，非洲国家必须找到办法实现经济多样化。


Diversification requires investment in the future, in the form of education and well-developed infrastructure, including telecommunications, power, roads, rail, and water.

多样化需要为未来投资，如教育和发达的基础设施（通讯、电力、公路、铁路、水道等 ） 。


There are plenty of models to follow: Dubai, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea are all admired by Africans as economies that managed to transform themselves.

可以效仿的榜样很多：迪拜、新加坡、泰国、马来西亚、墨西哥、印度尼西亚和韩国都是非洲人民所景仰的成功实现转型的经济体。


Dubai, for example, set out more than three decades ago to prepare for a future without oil.

比如，迪拜三十多年前就开始为没有石油的未来做准备。


The government implemented a step-by-step transformation of the country into a service economy, putting in place the infrastructure and incentives necessary to build up financial services, tourism, medical services, real estate, media, arts, and culture.

迪拜政府实施了逐步的转型，将经济转变为服务经济，为金融服务、旅游、医疗服务、房地产、传媒、艺术和文化等行业提供必要的基础设施和激励。


South Korea and Singapore, which had few natural resources on which to rely, are no less inspiring.

韩国和新加坡都没有天然资源可以依赖，但它们的例子也十分鼓舞人心。


The secret behind these countries’ success is relentlessly focused leaders, whether entrenched but benign dictators or democratically elected politicians with a shared vision of a broad-based economy.

这些国家成功的背后是坚持不懈的领导人，不管是长期执政但温和的独裁者，还是对宽基础经济有着共同愿景的民选政客。


Sub-Saharan Africa has paths for diversified growth that many of the trailblazers did not: value-added agriculture and agro industry, the processing of mineral resources, petrochemical complexes, manufacturing of durable and consumer goods, tourism and entertainment, and an emerging information-technology sector.

撒哈拉以南非洲拥有许多先行者所不具备的多样化增长路径：增加值农业和农用工业、矿产资源、石化、持久品和消费品制造、旅游和娱乐，以及新兴的信息技术业。


As the necessary measures for diversification are implemented, policymakers must ensure that the economic growth they are pursuing creates jobs.

在实施必要的多样化措施的同时，决策者必须确保他们所追求的经济增长能创造就业。


Sadly, this has not always been the case.

悲哀的是，事实未必如此。


Much of the recent growth has benefited only a few, leaving many behind – most notably young people and women.

近期的大量增长只是肥了一小撮人，而将大部分人排斥在外 — — 特别是年轻人和女性。


From 2006 to 2013, inequality rose in many of the continent’s most important economies, including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Rwanda.

从2006年到2013年，非洲的许多最重要经济体，包括南非、尼日利亚、加纳、坦桑尼亚和卢旺达等，不平等性都有所上升。


These were challenges that we were starting to address in Nigeria when I was finance minister.

我担任尼日利亚财政部长时，已经开始解决一些挑战。


We knew that we needed not just to secure growth, but also to improve the quality of that growth.

我们知道我们不但需要确保增长，还需要改善增长的质量。


To that end, policymakers must ensure that growth is channeled into sectors that create jobs, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services.

在这方面，决策者必须确保增长被引导到创造就业的部门，如农业、制造业和服务业。


They may also have to redistribute income and strengthen social safety nets to protect better those at the bottom of the ladder.

他们还必须重新分配收入和强化社会安全网，以更好地保护底层人群。


Matching skills to job opportunities will be crucial.

让技能与就业机会相匹配至关重要。


Some 70% of Africa’s population is under 30, and the continent is home to half the world’s primary-school-age children who have been deprived of the opportunity to study.

大约70%的非洲人口还不到30岁，非洲辍学小学适龄儿童占世界的一半。


Offering Africa’s children basic reading, writing, and technology skills, as well as vocational, technical, and entrepreneurial training, must be a top priority.

让非洲儿童拥有基本的阅读、写作和技术技能并获得职业、技术和创业培训必须成为重中之重。


Weak health-care systems must also be strengthened in order to tackle the endemic diseases that sap productivity, such as malaria, as well as improving preparedness for outbreaks of deadly epidemics.

拙劣的医疗体系也必须强化，以解决制约生产力的地方性疾病（如疟疾）以及改善对致死传染病爆发的预防工作。


The stakes are high.

兹事体大。


The World Bank estimates the Ebola outbreak shrank the economies of Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia by 16%.

世界银行估计，埃博拉疫情的爆发让塞拉利昂、几内亚和利比里亚经济萎缩了16 % 。


As the world economy sputters, African countries will have to develop trade with one another.

世界经济形势堪忧，非洲国家必须发展彼此之间的贸易。


In 2013, African goods and services accounted for just 16% of trade within the continent, and just over 3% of world trade.

2013年，非洲商品和服务只占非洲内部贸易的16%或世界贸易的3%略多。


One problem is that most African countries produce the same type of commodities and trade them with very little value-added.

一个问题是大部分非洲国家生产同类商品，并以极少量附加值进行贸易。


Policymakers must encourage greater specialization; differentiated goods and services will add value and volume to trade.

决策者必须鼓励提高专业化；多样化的商品和服务能够自增加贸易的价值和量。


Logistics pose another obstacle to intra-African trade.

物流是非洲内部贸易的另一障碍。


Policymakers must make it easier to move goods across borders, by improving connectivity between countries and reducing bureaucratic hurdles and administrative costs.

决策者必须改善国家之间的联系，降低官僚障碍和行政成本，从而让商品跨国运输更加便利。


For example, road transport tariffs across Africa are estimated at $0.05-$0.13 per ton-kilometer, compared to the average of $0.01-$0.05 for all developing countries.

比如，非洲公路运输关税据估计在每吨千米0.05—0.13美元，而所有发展中国家的平均水平为0.01—0.05美元。


The Rift Valley Railway project, which will eventually link Mombasa on the Kenyan coast to Kampala in Uganda, is a good example of the benefits that investments in transportation could provide.

最终将连接肯尼亚蒙巴萨海滨和乌干达坎帕拉的东非大裂谷铁路工程很好地说明了交通投资所能提供的好处。


The African Development Bank estimates that it will double the volume of trade between the two countries, while reducing marginal costs by 30%.

非洲开发银行估计它将让两国间贸易量翻一番，同时将边际成本降低30 % 。


As they make these investments, policymakers must not forget that much of Africa’s recent growth can be credited to good macroeconomic policies and sound economic management.

在做出这些投资的同时，决策者也绝不能忘记近期非洲的大部分增长要归因于良好的宏观经济政策和可靠的经济管理。


Extending the continent’s rise will require strengthening the continent’s economic fundamentals.

延长非洲的崛起需要强化非洲经济基本面。


This means ensuring that prices in the economy are correct, starting with the exchange rate.

这意味着确保经济中的价格是正确的。 首先是汇率。


Some countries may need temporary controls to curb damaging capital outflows, but policymakers should aim for a market-based exchange rate and a solid plan for governing inflation, debt, foreign-exchange reserves, current accounts, and fiscal balances.

一些国家也许需要暂时管制以遏制破坏性资本流出，但决策者应该将目标放在市场汇率和制定可靠的计划治理通货膨胀、债务、外汇储备、经常账户和财政平衡上。


Africa’s potential can hardly be overstated.

非洲的潜能是无穷的。


The continent is well placed to build diversified economies based on low-carbon, sustainable infrastructure.

非洲很适合构建基于低碳可持续基础设施的多样化经济。


But policymakers cannot simply assume that Africa’s rise will continue.

但决策者不能想当然地认为非洲能持续崛起。


They must take the right steps to ensure that it does.

他们必须采取正确的措施保证这一点。


Africa’s Urban Farmers

非洲的城市农夫们


NAIROBI – When I met Eunice Wangari at a Nairobi coffee shop recently, I was surprised to hear her on her mobile phone, insistently asking her mother about the progress of a corn field in her home village, hours away from the big city.

发自内罗毕 — — 当我最近在肯尼亚首都内罗毕一家咖啡厅遇见尤妮斯·瓦嘉里时，就对她打电话的内容感到惊讶无比。 她在手机里不断地询问她母亲家里玉米田的长势，而那个地方离首都还有几个小时车程。


A nurse, Wangari counts on income from farming to raise money to buy more land – for more farming.

作为一名护士，尤妮斯希望用种地所赚来的钱来购买更多土地 — — 然后再种更多的地。


Even though Wangari lives in Kenya’s capital, she is able to reap hundreds of dollars a year in profit from cash crops grown with the help of relatives.

虽然生活在肯尼亚首都，但尤妮斯每年都能在亲戚帮助下从经济作物种植中获利数百美元。


Her initial stake – drawn from her nursing wages of about $350 a month – has long since been recovered.

而启动资金则是她当护士每月约350美元工资 — — 不过这笔本钱早就收回来了。


Wangari is one of thousands of urban workers in Kenya – and one of hundreds of thousands, even millions, across Africa – who are increasing their incomes through absentee agriculture.

尤妮斯是成千上万名生活在肯尼亚的“城市农夫”中的一员 — — 而在非洲大陆则有数十万到数百万这样的人 — — 他们靠“远程”务农来增加自己的收入。


With prices for basic foodstuffs at their highest levels in decades, many urbanites feel well rewarded by farming.

由于基础食品的价格达到了几十年中来的最高水平，许多城里人都觉得靠务农来挣钱还是报酬颇丰的。


Absentee agriculture also bolsters national pride – and pride in traditional diets – by specializing in vegetables specific to the region.

远程务农也因此增强了人们的民族自豪感，同时也并通过对某些地区特产蔬菜的关注而提升了对传统饮食的自豪感。


“For too long our country has been flooded with imported food and Westernized foods,” Wangari says. “This is our time to fight back – and grow our own.”

“进口食品和西式食物已经在我们国家泛滥太久了 ” ， 尤妮斯说 ， “ 现在是我们发起反击，种植自己的食物的时候了。


Across Africa, political leaders, long dismissive of rural concerns, have awakened to the importance of agriculture and the role that educated people, even those living in major cities, can play in farming.

在经历了对农村地区的长期不重视之后，整个非洲大陆的领导人都悟到了农业的重要性，并意识到那些受过教育的人们，即使是在主要城市里谋生，也可以在农业中扮演一个角色。


In Nigeria, former President Olusegun Obasanjo has a huge diversified farm and has pushed for policies to help absentee farmers prosper.

在尼日利亚，前总统奥卢塞贡·奥巴桑乔就拥有一个从事多种经营的巨大农场，并推行一系列政策来帮助那些远程农夫成功创业。


In Uganda, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya routinely travels the country, promoting higher-value farming, such as dairy production.

在乌干达，副总统吉尔伯特·布坎尼亚在全国例行走访途中也着力推广更高价值的农业经营方式，比如奶制品生产。