Adding to Africa’s story of divergence will be continued political fragility in a number of states, including the Central African Republic, Burundi, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Somalia.

不少非洲国家继续处于政治脆弱状态将进一步扩大非洲的差异，包括中非共和国、布隆迪、尼日利亚、南苏丹和索马里。


A third source of optimism is Africa’s agricultural sector, where the potential of smallholder farmers, the majority of whom are women, is finally being realized.

第三个乐观来源是非洲的农业产业，那里的小农潜力终于得以实现，其中绝大部分是妇女。


African agricultural output is forecast to reach $1 trillion by 2030.

非洲农业产量预计到2030年将达1万亿美元。


This maturation could not have come at a more opportune time; roughly two-thirds of Africans depend on agriculture to make ends meet.

这样的成熟期恰恰出现在最恰当的时机；约2/3的非洲民众依靠农业来维持生计。


Large tracts of uncultivated land, a youthful workforce, and the emergence of tech-savvy “agropreneurs” – agricultural entrepreneurs – are lifting production and transforming entire economies.

大片未开垦的土地、年轻劳动力和技术精湛的“农业企业家 ” （ agropreneurs）的出现正在提升产量并改革整个经济体。


Fourth, Africans are benefiting from technological disruption.

第四，非洲民众正在从技术破坏中受益。


With more than 995 million mobile subscribers, Africa’s increasing connectivity is being used to power innovation.

非洲手机用户已超过9.95亿，不断发展的信息互联正在实现加速创新的目的。


Key sectors like farming, health, education, banking, and insurance are already being transformed, greatly enhancing the region’s business landscape.

农业、医疗、教育、银行和保险等关键部门已经开始转型，这极大地改善了该地区的商业格局。


Fifth, African leaders are getting serious about curbing illicit financial outflows from corrupt practices that rob African countries of some $50 billion annually, much of it in the oil and gas sector.

第五，非洲领导人正在认真遏制腐败行为所造成的非法资金流出，腐败行为多数发生在石油天然气领域，因此被掠夺的非洲国家财富每年约为500亿美元。


While US lawmakers are pushing to repeal portions of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation – which contains a provision requiring oil, gas, and mining companies to disclose payments they make to governments – the broader trend is toward greater transparency and accountability.

尽管美国立法者正在推动废除2010年多德-弗兰克金融改革法案的部分内容 — — 该法案当中包含要求石油天然气和矿业企业披露向政府付款的相关规定 — — 但却阻挡不了提高透明度和建立问责制的大趋势。


For example, the Panama Papers and the Paradise Papers pulled back the curtain on the murky system of tax havens and shell companies that shelter billions of dollars from some of the world’s poorest countries, including many in Africa.

例如，巴拿马文件和天堂文件揭开了在避税天堂和空壳公司等地下系统掩护下，数十亿美元流出世界某些最贫困国家，其中也包括许多非洲国家的黑幕。


And with the G20 and the OECD working to stop tax avoidance, Africa may soon benefit from global efforts to end shady accounting.

随着20国集团和经合组织竭尽全力打击逃税，非洲可能很快就会从全球打击会计黑幕的工作中受益。


Sixth, Africa’s energy sector is set to thrive.

第六，非洲的能源行业注定会蓬勃发展。


While 621 million Africans still lack reliable access to electricity, innovations like renewables, mini-grids, and smart metering are bringing power to more people than ever before.

虽然6.21亿非洲人仍然缺乏可靠的电力供应，但可再生能源、微型电网和智能电表等创新正在使越来越多的人享受到能源的便利。


In South Africa, renewable energy has taken off; the price of wind power is now competitive with coal.

在南非，可再生能源事业已经起飞；风电价格现在已经与煤电价格具有同等的竞争力。


Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, and Rwanda are also attracting large investments in renewable energy.

埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、摩洛哥和卢旺达也吸引了大量可再生能源投资。


A seventh area showing signs of progress is education.

显示出进步迹象的第七个领域是教育。


To be sure, Africa’s educational offerings remain dismal; more than 30 million children in Sub-Saharan Africa are not in school, and those who do attend are not learning as much as they could.

可以肯定，非洲的教育产品水平仍然很低；撒哈拉以南非洲地区高达3，000万儿童失学，即使那些上学的儿童也没有学到足够多的知识。


But many African leaders and publics have recognized these deficiencies; in some countries, such as Ghana, education has even become a deciding issue for voters.

但许多非洲领袖和民众已经认识到上述缺陷；在以加纳为代表的某些国家，教育甚至已经成为选民投票的决定性问题。


As the Education Commission highlights, some countries are boosting investments in education.

正如教育委员会所强调的那样，某些国家正在加大对教育领域的投资。


This represents an opportunity to align learning outcomes with future employment needs.

这创造了一个使学习成果与未来就业需求相协调的机遇。


But with over a billion young people living in Africa by 2050, greater investment in education is urgently needed.

但因为到2050年将有超过10亿年轻人生活在非洲，因此迫切需要加大对教育领域的投资。


Finally, greater attention is being paid to developing a pan-African identity, and African fashions, films, and foods are expanding to new markets.

最后，人们越来越重视打造泛非身份，而非洲时装、电影和食品正在向新市场进军。


As these cultural connections grow, Africa’s soft power will continue to rise and extend far beyond the continent.

随着文化联系的不断发展，非洲的软实力将继续增加并强势辐射非洲大陆以外地区。


In many corners of the world, 2018 is shaping up to be yet another disappointing year, as inequality and poverty continue to fuel anger and populism.

在世界许多角落，2018年正逐渐成为令人失望的一年，因为不平等和贫困继续助长愤怒和民粹主义。


Africa will not be entirely immune from such developments.

非洲将不会在这样的事态发展面前完全免疫。


Nonetheless, the continent’s inhabitants have at least eight good reasons – far more than most people elsewhere – to be optimistic.

但尽管如此，非洲大陆居民至少有八个充分的理由保持乐观，其他地方的绝大多数人都没有这样的运气。


Resetting the Africa-Europe Relationship

重置非洲-欧洲关系


JOHANNESBURG – In October, the European Union announced a plan to invest €40 billion ($47.6 billion) in Africa, a “Marshall Plan” for the continent that would boost economic growth, create jobs, and, ultimately, slow the migration of young Africans to Europe.

约翰内斯堡—10月，欧盟宣布计划了一项在向非洲投资400亿欧元的计划，这是一项非洲“马歇尔计划 ” ， 将提振非洲经济增长、创造就业岗位，最终缓解非洲年轻人向欧洲的移民。


“Words won’t convince migrants to stay at home,” European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said. “We must give them a chance to have a decent life.”

“光靠说无法让移民留在家里 ， ” 欧洲议会主席塔雅尼（Antonio Tajani）说 ， “ 我们比给他们过上体面生活的机会。


Tajani is right.

塔雅尼是对的。


Unfortunately, his approach is not.

不幸的是，他的方针是错的。


For almost 60 years, well-meaning foreign governments, many of them European, have poured huge sums of money into Africa, with little to show for it.

近60年来，初衷良好的外国政府 — — 其中许多来自欧洲 — — 向非洲投入了巨额资金，但收效甚微。


Lasting solutions to Africa’s development challenges require funding, to be sure, but they also demand a significant recalibration in relations with foreign partners.

非洲发展挑战的持续解决方案当然需要资金，但也需要对与外国合作伙伴的关系做出重要调整。


And Africa’s relationship with Europe may require the biggest overhaul of all.

其中非洲与欧洲的关系最需要调整。


The problem goes much deeper than money; one might even say it’s philosophical.

问题比金钱深刻得多；甚至有人会说这是个哲学问题。


Africa and Europe have a very old relationship, marked by complexity and pain.

非洲和欧洲的关系由来已久，充满了复杂性和阵痛。


Europe imposed its system of governance, values, and more recently, approaches to trade, long claiming that Africans need to be trained, to modernize, and to emphasize “capacity building.”

欧洲将它的治理体系、价值观，后来又将它的贸易方针强加给非洲，一直说非洲人需要训练，需要现代化，需要强调“能力建设 ” 。


This patronizing partnership has run its course, and it is crucial that we change the dynamic.

这一庇护式的合作关系早已不合时宜，改变这一动态至关重要。


Meetings like the fifth African Union-European Union summit, which wrapped up last week in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, are a good start.

第五次非盟-欧盟峰会于上周在科特迪瓦的阿比让落下帷幕。 类似的会议是很好的起点。


The meeting, which focused on “investing in youth,” put a spotlight on the complex links between the sides.

在这次非盟-欧盟峰会上 ， “ 投资于年轻人”成为焦点主题，也让人们看到了双方的复杂联系。


One conclusion was clear: the EU’s current answer to addressing migration from Africa is outdated.

一个清晰的结论是：欧盟当前的非洲移民问题解决方案已经过时了。


If Europe’s strategy to solve its migration challenges relies on money alone, it will fail.

如果欧洲用来解决移民挑战的战略完全依赖金钱，那是注定要失败的。


We are a long way from the lopsided dynamic that defined African-European relations during the colonial era.

殖民地时代的倾斜的非欧关系早已一去不复返了。


Today, Europe may need Africa more than Africa needs Europe, especially if one considers human capital.

如今，欧洲需要非洲甚于非洲需要欧洲，特别是在人力资本方面。


Over the next 15 years, some 440 million Africans will enter the job market, compared to 72 million in Europe.

在未来十五年中，有4.4亿非洲人将进入劳动力市场，而欧洲只有7,200万人。


Africa’s job seekers will need work, and Europe will have it.

非洲的求职者需要工作，而欧洲有工作。


An aging population is already putting a squeeze on Europe’s growth, and vacancies are forecast to multiply amid a shrinking labor pool.

老龄化的人口已经开始影响欧洲的增长，而随着劳动力人数的下降，岗位空缺预计将成倍增长。


There is even a strong possibility that, in the long run, it will be African young people who pay for the care of European pensioners.

甚至很有可能，从长期看，欧洲退休者的看护需要非洲年轻人来买单。


These demographic differences underscore the potential benefits of rethinking economic and political relations.

这些人口差异意味着重新思考经济和政治关系具有很大的潜在收益。


Without migration, the redistributive policies on which European welfare states depend will be unable to withstand the current rate of aging.

如果没有移民，欧洲福利国家所依赖的再分配政策将无法面对当前的老龄化率。


Not only will finding the staff to care for an aging population become more difficult; obtaining sufficient revenue to fund social security systems will also become harder as the dependency ratio rises.

不但照顾日已老化的人口将变得更加困难；获取足够收入来为社会保障体系提供资金也将随着赡养比的上升而日益艰难。


Migration policies that emphasize mobility are essential to support European industries, household consumption and, ultimately, the financing of social benefits.

强调流动性的移民政策是支持欧洲工业、家庭消费以及最终的社会福利融资的关键。


Because strategic competitors like China and India have already identified the human-capital potential of Africa’s youth, Europe must move quickly to attract and retain – rather than repel – African professionals.

中国和印度等战略性竞争者已经认识到非洲年轻人的人力资本潜力，欧洲必须迅速行动起来，吸引和挽留 — — 而不是抵制 — — 非洲专业人士。


Of the 375,000 students from the continent who study abroad each year, many will establish businesses and find their own place in a globalized economy upon graduation.

每年有375,000非洲学生出国留学，其中很多人毕业后将会创业并在全球化的经济中找到一席之地。


There is already growing competition in the US, Canada, China, the Middle East, and Africa itself to attract these highly educated and mobile students.

美国、加拿大、中国、中东以及非洲本身都已经开始日益激烈地争夺这些受过良好教育的高流动性学生。


Just as sixteenth-century Europe needed African gold, twenty-first-century Europe cannot do without the African diaspora.

正如十六世纪的欧洲需要非洲的黄金，没有非洲侨民，二十一世纪的欧洲将步履维艰。


Which other world region can offer similar market potential for European industries faced with declining demand and or subdued growth in both their domestic and traditional export markets?

除了非洲，世界上还有哪个地区能够为饱受需求下降和/或国内和传统出口市场增长纷纷放缓之苦的欧洲国家提供类似的市场潜力？


That is why it is more important than ever that Europe not engage in an administrative bean-counting exercise, in which other economies will always appear stronger.

因此，对欧洲来说，欧洲切不可陷入政治算计，在这方面它争不过其他经济体。


Instead, the EU should commit to mutually beneficial employment schemes that maximize the strengths of people and cultures on both continents, notably through skills transfer.

相反，欧洲应该致力于互惠共赢的就业机制，从而实现两大洲人员和文化优势最大化，最主要的就是要通过技能转移实现。


Europe’s recognition of its need for Africa is a necessary paradigm shift, leading, one hopes, to reasoned collaboration.

欧洲承认其对非洲的需要是必不可少的范式转变，我们希望，这能够带来理性的合作。


In an increasingly uncertain world, Africa and Europe can set the foundations for a smarter partnership by changing the basis of their cooperation.

在一个日益不确定的世界中，非洲和欧洲能够通过改变合作基础，为更加明智的伙伴关系奠定基础。


Failure to do so will be costly.

如果无法实现这一点，代价将相当高昂。


But most of that cost will be borne by Europe.

但大部分代价都会由欧洲来承担。


With alternative partners already courting their talent, it is not Africa that will be hurt the most by the missed opportunity.

其他合作伙伴早已开始追逐人才，失去机会影响最大的并不是非洲。


Gender Equity for Africa’s Scientists

非洲科学家的性别平等


KIGALI – A girl in Ethiopia could grow up to engineer a new method for improving agricultural yields, if only she could meet the right mentor.

基加利 — — 一位埃塞俄比亚女孩只要能找到合适的导师，长大就可以设计出提高农作物产量的新方法。


A young woman in Malawi has ideas for new cancer treatments, but will never apply them if she is pushed out of school.

一位马拉维青年女性有治疗癌症的新想法，但如果被迫离校将永远无法付诸实施。


And a girl in Rwanda has all the skills to create a mathematical model to mitigate droughts; all she needs is a research grant to help her pay for college.

而一位卢旺达女孩掌握了创造数学模型缓解干旱的所有技能; 她需要的仅仅是一笔研究捐款来帮助她上大学。


There is a global gender imbalance in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics – the so-called STEM disciplines.

在科学、技术、工程和数学领域都存在着全球性别失衡现象 — — 这就是所谓的STEM法则。


But in Africa, this imbalance is doing more than threatening individual futures.

但在非洲，不仅是个人未来正受到这种失衡的威胁。


It is also depriving the continent of talents and contributions needed to drive development and progress.

它还剥夺了推动这块大陆发展和进步所需的人才和贡献。


A 2011 African Development Bank report finds that “getting women into science and technology ultimately promises to benefit society as a whole.”

2011年一份非洲开发银行的报告显示“让女性参与科学和技术最终有利于整个社会。 ”


Gender equity in STEM is achievable, and many African scholars are showing the world how to do it.

科学、技术、工程和数学领域的性别平等可以实现，许多非洲学者正在向世界展示他们如何以身作则。


But they need help, and programs that offer scholarships and support are among the best ways to achieve parity in the sciences.

但他们需要帮助，而提供奖学金和支持的相关计划是实现科学平等的最佳方式。


The causes of Africa’s STEM gender imbalance are often compared to a leaky pipe: girls start out with interest and aptitude, but drop out of the disciplines at various points in their education.

非洲在科学、技术、工程和数学领域失衡的原因往往被比作一根漏水的水管：女孩开始时充满了兴趣和天赋，但却在教育的各个阶段被迫退学。


Early data from a Mastercard Foundation initiative aimed at reversing these trends show that a comprehensive approach to plugging the leaks can make a difference.

来自万事达基金会旨在扭转上述趋势行动的早期数据表明全面采取措施来堵住漏洞能够使整个局面得到改观。


Success begins with acknowledging that gender equity in STEM matters.

承认科学、技术、工程和数学领域存在的性别平等问题是成功的开始。


“Science needs us” is how Armanda Kouassi, an industrial engineer and former Mastercard Foundation scholar, puts it.

“科学需要我们”是前万事达基金会学者兼工业工程师阿曼达·库瓦希的言辞。


“With different ideas and perspectives come better solutions and thinking that can move scientific innovations forward and benefit the whole of Africa.”

“不同的理念和视角可以带来更好方案和思维，从而推动科学创新向前发展并惠及整个非洲。 ”


Kouassi is right.

库瓦希说的完全正确。


Africa cannot afford to squander its young, female talent.

非洲承受不起浪费年轻女性人才的损失。


Sub-Saharan Africa faces a shortfall of some 2.5 million engineers, technologists, mathematicians, and scientists.

撒哈拉以南非洲面临高达250万名工程师、技术人员、数学家和科学家的短缺。


This dearth of expertise threatens a number of Sustainable Development Goals, such as food security, health care, clean water and sanitation, energy, and infrastructure.

这种专业知识的缺乏可能威胁几项可持续发展目标的实现，例如粮食安全、医疗卫生、清洁饮水、卫生设备以及能源和基础设施。


Removing gender barriers to STEM requires African governments to make equity in the sciences a priority.

消除科学、技术、工程和数学领域的性别障碍需要非洲政府优先关注科学平等问题。


Nowhere is this happening more successfully than in Rwanda, where our collective experience has helped more than 1,250 girls and young women excel in STEM disciplines.

在这方面卢旺达做得最为成功，我们的集体经验已经帮助超过1，250名女孩儿和青年女性在上述学科领域取得优异的成绩。


The African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, is one of these agents of change.

位于卢旺达首都基加利的非洲数学科学研究所是这场变革的推动力量之一。


The school believes that the next Einstein could be an African woman, an educational approach that informs its comprehensive strategy to plug leaks in the STEM development pipeline.

该校认为下一个爱因斯坦可能是一位非洲女性，这种教育方法反映了其堵住科学、技术、工程和数学领域发展渠道漏洞的全方位战略。


AIMS’s innovative approach includes helping governments train teachers, ensure that female students are not vastly outnumbered in their classrooms, support students who are mothers, and engage with industry leaders to help graduates succeed in their careers.

非洲数学科学研究所的创新方法包括协助政府培训教师，确保课堂上有一定数量的女生、支持已经身为人母的女性并同时与行业领袖合作帮助毕业生取得事业上的成功。


To attract more female students, 30% of the school’s scholarships are reserved for female applicants, and the school aspires to reach 50% in the near future.

为吸引更多女性学生，该校将30%的奖学金预留给女性申请者，而学校希望这一比例能在不久的将来达到50 % 。


Similarly, Carnegie Mellon University Africa (CMU-Africa), also in Kigali, is championing change by allocating 30% of its scholarships to young women.

同样设在基加利的非洲卡内基梅隆大学（CMU-Africa）正在通过将30%的奖学金分配给年轻女性来推动变革的发生。


These commitments will have a positive effect on the entire institution, as CMU-Africa seeks to increase dramatically enrollment of female scientists.

上述举措将对整个教育体制产生积极的影响，因为非洲卡内基梅隆大学正在积极采取措施大幅提高女性科学人才的入学率。


Finally, the Forum for African Women Educationalists (FAWE) in Rwanda has funded the education of 1,200 girls enrolled at the country’s top-performing secondary schools specializing in STEM subjects.

最后，卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛（FAWE）已经资助了在该国优秀高中学习科学、技术、工程和数学等学科领域的1，200名女性学生接受教育。


Of these students, an estimated 70% are expected to study science at the university level.

在这些学生中，估计有70%有望考上大学学习理科专业。


Despite these positive developments, quotas alone will not achieve parity.

尽管事态出现了这些积极的进展，但单纯依靠配额仍无法达到平等的目的。


To make lasting gains, opportunities outside the classroom are also needed.

需要课堂以外的机会才能获得持久的收益。


At FAWE Rwanda, a program called Tuseme (a Swahili word meaning “let’s speak out”) offers girls leadership training through drama, song, and creative arts to teach presentation, negotiation, and decision-making skills.

在卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛，一个名叫Tuseme的项目（这个斯瓦希里语单词的意思是“让我们公开表达 ” ） 通过戏剧、歌唱以及创意艺术来训练女孩的领导能力，并教会她们掌握演讲、谈判和决策技术。


FAWE Rwanda also works with teachers to develop gender-responsive pedagogical methods.

卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛还与教师合作开发以性别特点为基础的教学方式。


Likewise, at CMU-Africa, scholars are invited to participate in the university’s Meeting of the Minds Symposium, an annual global gathering for undergraduates to showcase their work to a wider audience of faculty, students, government officials, and industry representatives.

同样，非洲卡内基梅隆大学学者应邀参与学校的思想研讨会，这是一年一度的全球本科生聚会，本科生们在这次研讨会上面向教职员工、学生、政府官员和行业代表展示他们所取得的成绩。


And, the Next Einstein Forum, a select program at AIMS that recognizes Africa’s best young scientists and technologists – of which 40% are women – provides emerging innovators with an opportunity to lead their own research while inspiring the next generation of scientific thinkers.

另外，非洲数学科学研究所的精选项目下一个爱因斯坦论坛负责选拔非洲最高水平的青年科学家和技术工作者 — — 其中有40%是女性 — — 为正在打拼的创业者提供领导自己研究的机会，同时激励下一代科学思想家。


Inequalities faced by girls and young women in African education cannot be erased overnight.

非洲女孩和年轻女性在教育领域所面临的不平等不可能一夜间消除。


As Rebecca, a Mastercard Foundation scholar from Uganda, remembers, “When I was at my school, the boys used to call us ‘half-men,’ because if you’re a lady and you go for sciences, you’re a half-man.”

正如乌干达万事达基金会学者丽贝卡所回忆的那样 ， “ 我在校期间，男生曾经称我们为‘假小子 ’ ， 因为如果你是一名女生而且学习理工科，你就是假小子。


But, Rebecca adds, “It was cool being a science student.”

”但丽贝卡补充道 ， “ 学习理科是一件很酷的事。 ”


Africa needs more women who share Rebecca’s enthusiasm for STEM.

非洲需要更多像丽贝卡一样热爱科学、技术、工程和数学学科的女性。


To ensure that science remains appealing to girls, schools, governments, and industries must cooperate to educate teachers and mentors, and allocate funding to close the gender gap.

为确保科学对女性的吸引力，学校、政府及各行各业都必须齐心协力教育教师和辅导员，同时拨款弥补性别差距。


As Miranda, another Mastercard Foundation scholar, recently observed, “As we try to find new innovations and inventions to drive the economy, I believe that math and science is at the forefront of that progress.”

另一位万事达基金会学者米兰达最近指出 ， “ 当我们想找到新的创造和发明来推动经济发展时，我相信数学和科学处在进步的前沿位置。


As professionals working to improve African education, we couldn’t agree more.

”作为竭尽全力改善非洲教育的专业人士，她的观点我完全同意。


Liberal Democracy in Africa Can Wait

非洲自由民主可以等


YAOUNDÉ – Africa’s policymakers understand that strong economic and political leadership is essential to growth and stability.

雅温得—非洲决策者明白，强大的经济和政治领导是增长和稳定的关键。


For years, African economies have fared better than expected, owing to a commitment to improving governance.

多年来，非洲经济表现一直好于预期，这便是致力于改善治理的结果。


The question now is how to sustain the momentum.

现在的问题是如何保持这一势头。


Current strategies do not provide an adequate answer.

当前的战略没有提供充分的答案。


Although leaders at a recent African Economic Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, committed to keeping governance reforms at the top of Africa’s agenda, they offered no blueprint.

在最近的埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴非洲经济会议上，领导人承诺继续将治理改革列为非洲日程的重中之重，但他们并没有给出路线图。


From my perspective, this void presents an opportunity to consider new governance paradigms, including those that borrow from two commonly discussed models: the “Washington Consensus” and the “Beijing Model.”

从我的角度看，这一空白是一次思考新治理范式的机会，包括那些借鉴两大热门模式 — — “华盛顿共识”和“北京模式”的范式。


Development practitioners have long debated which model offers the best framework for reform.

长期以来，发展实践家一直在争论那种模式是最好的改革框架。


Put simply, “governance” refers to a dynamic framework of rules, structures, and processes that help a government manage its economic, political, and administrative affairs.

简言之 ， “ 治理”指的是一个动态规则、结构和过程框架，以帮助政府管理经济、政治和行政事务。


But which principles a government focuses on varies by approach.

但对于政府应该注重哪些原则，不同的方法有不同的看法。


The model championed by the West places a premium on human rights and democracy, while the one advocated by China is more concerned with political stability and economic growth.

西方所领衔的模式优先关注人权和民主，而中国所主推的模式更关注政治稳定和经济增长。


Since the election of President Donald Trump, the United States, which remains one of Africa’s top donors, has focused more on the principles China favors – like political stability, trade, and counterterrorism – than on human rights.

自特朗普当选总统以来，仍然是非洲首要捐助国的美国，开始更加注重中国所中意的原则 — — 如政治稳定、贸易和反恐 — — 而非人权。


The rationale is that the Beijing Model is better for Africa in the short and medium term.

原因在于北京模式在短期和中期对非洲更有利。


And, while it might not be popular to admit, Trump has a point.

尽管承认这一点未必讨好，但特朗普不无道理。


Simply put, food, shelter, health, and good sanitation are more relevant for most Africans than the right to vote.

简言之，粮食、住所、健康和良好的卫生设施对于大部分非洲人来说要比投票权更加重要。


Moreover, only a moderately wealthy population, with a healthy middle class, can adequately demand the rights that democracy provides.

此外，只有当人口比较富裕，并形成了一个健康的中产阶级时，才能充分地要求民主所提供的权利。


Paradoxically, the fastest way to build a strong middle class in Africa would be to move toward the hierarchy of principles that China’s model promotes.

讽刺的是，在非洲构建强大中产阶级的最佳方式便是在各个层面采取中国模式所推行的原则。


For Africa to reorient its governance approach, and embrace a post-Washington Consensus, its leaders must commit to improving institutional effectiveness and economic management.

对非洲来说，调整治理方针、接受后华盛顿共识需要其领导人致力于改善机构效率和经济管理。


The first set of reforms would involve establishing clear lines of sovereignty with international partners.

第一组改革应该包括与国际合作伙伴划定明确的主权边界。


Africa’s relationship with Western donors, for example, has historically placed individual rights over national rights.

比如，非洲与西方捐助国的关系，在历史上将个体权利置于国家权利之上。


But in my view, individual rights should not supersede sovereign ones.

但在我看来，个体权利不应该超越主权权利。


Punishing entire countries for laws that affect a minority is counterproductive.

因为影响少数人的法律而惩罚整个国家效果会适得其反。


An example of such collective punishment occurred in Uganda in 2014, when the World Bank froze some $90 million in loans following the government’s enactment of legislation criminalizing homosexuality.

这种集体惩罚的一个例子发生在2014年的乌干达，因为乌干达政府实施了同性恋入罪的立法，世界银行冻结了约9,000万美元贷款。


As a Ugandan government spokesman said at the time, the bank “should not blackmail its members” to adopt Western values.

当时，乌干达政府发言人表示，世界银行“不应该绑架其成员”接受西方价值观。


Yet, when governance models are judged solely through the lens of the Washington Consensus, there is very little alternative.

但是，当治理模式完全以华盛顿共识的标准来评判时，就几乎别无选择。


Along the same lines, the second set of reforms pertains to prioritizing economic rights over political rights.

同时，第二组改革优先考虑经济权利而非政治权利。


For example, politicians who manage an economy well should not be subject to term limits.

比如，管理经济的政客不应该有任期限制。


Neither Singapore nor China is a democracy; but leaders in both countries have used their political power to improve living standards.

不管是新加坡还是中国，都不是民主国家；但两国领导人运用他们的政治权力去改善生活水平。


Forcing leaders to step down in the middle of economic reforms seems counterproductive.

在经济改革进行中期迫使领导人下台可能起到适得其反的效果。


These are not far-fetched ideas.

这些都不是牵强附会。


Today, leaders in Rwanda, which is widely considered an African success story, have improved stability by moving away from the Washington Consensus approach to governance.

如今，在被广泛认为是非洲成功故事之一的卢旺达，领导人通过放弃华盛顿共识的治理方针，成功改善了稳定。


Politically, Rwanda is strong, disciplined, and organized, but it is not liberal.

从政治上看，卢旺达强大、有组织、有纪律，但不自由。


The landslide reelection of President Paul Kagame last year had more to do with power than democracy.

总统卡加梅在去年的大选中以压倒性优势连任与其说源自民主，不如说源自权力。


Although Kagame remains popular, his government was criticized for stifling free speech and human rights in the run-up to the vote.

尽管卡加梅保持着很高的支持率，但他的政府被批在选举期间扼杀言论自由、压迫人权。


The conclusion I draw is not that human rights don’t matter, but that political discipline and imperfect forms of democracy are acceptable if the tradeoff is sustained progress in economic and institutional governance.

我从中得出的结论不是人权不重要，而是政治纪律和不完美的民主形式，在面临经济和机构治理持续改善的权衡面前也是可接受的。


We should be intellectually honest and call a spade a spade.

我们应该在理智上保持坦诚，实话实说。


Rwandans should not be ashamed to value economic and administrative strength more than fair elections.

卢旺达人民不必因为重视经济和行政强势甚于公平选举而感到羞愧。


The question for other African states seeking to reform their governance models, then, is how much of Rwanda’s approach to emulate.

因此，其他非洲国家寻求改革治理模式时所面临的问题是在多大程度上效仿卢旺达的方针。


Neither the Washington Consensus nor the Beijing Model has all the answers.

华盛顿共识也好，北京模式也好，都不是答案的全部。


But, as Rwanda has demonstrated, if discipline and strong leadership are improving lives and delivering public goods, perhaps liberal democracy should be a long-term priority.

但是，卢旺达证明，如果纪律和坚强的领导能够改善生活、提供公共品，那么也许自由民主应该作为一项长期的重点。


Health Coverage Must Not Ignore Africa’s Elderly

医疗保险不能忽视非洲的老年人


DAR ES SALAAM – My grandmother is 76, and my grandfather is 83.

达雷斯萨拉姆 — — 我的祖母76岁，祖父83岁。


They have lived fruitful lives together, cultivating crops and grazing cattle in a remote village in the hills of southwest Uganda.

他们在乌干达西南部山区的一个偏远村庄里共同生活，边养牛边种植农作物。


But whenever I think of them, I am more in awe of their good health than their hard work.

但每当我想起他们，我更佩服他们的健康体魄而非辛勤劳作。


Because of the remoteness of their community, anytime my grandparents need medical care, they must travel 25 miles to the nearest hospital on motorcycles known as boda-bodas, paying about 50,000 Ugandan shillings (about $13) for the round-trip journey.

因为生活的地方偏远，每次我的祖父母需要看医生，都必须骑着被当地人称为 boda-bodas的摩托车前往25英里外最近的医院，来回路费需要50,000乌干达先令（约合13美元 ） 。


Then, because they were recently dropped from their health-insurance plan due to age, they must cough up more money to foot the bill for treatment.

而后，由于他们最近因超龄而被迫退出医疗保险计划，他们必须自己掏更多钱来支付医疗账单。


In other words, for my grandparents – and for many older Africans – a visit to the doctor is onerous, costly, and exceedingly rare.

换言之，对于我的祖父母 — — 和许多非洲老年人来讲 — — 看医生不仅麻烦、昂贵而且非常罕见。


Access to health care is an obsession for experts in international development.

医疗服务普及度几乎已经成为困扰国际发展专家的强迫症。


In May, at the World Health Organization’s annual World Health Assembly, officials from dozens of countries discussed how to achieve universal health coverage through the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

今年5月，在世卫组织一年一度的世卫大会上，来自数十个国家的官员探讨了如何借助联合国可持续发展目标实现全民医疗覆盖。


And yet, most of the attention centered on mothers, newborns, and children; elderly populations in developing countries were largely ignored.

但母婴及儿童吸引了绝大部分注意力；讨论基本对发展中国家的老年人口视而不见。


Failure to address this omission would leave an increasing share of the population without access to affordable health care.

如果解决不了这一遗漏问题，越来越多的非洲人口将无法获得平价的医疗保健。


According to the World Bank, life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa has risen steadily in recent decades, from just 40 years in 1960 to 60 years today.

世界银行数据显示，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的预期寿命近几十年来一直稳步上升，从1960年的仅40岁上升到今天的60岁。


If this trend continues, the number of Africans living past their 60th birthday will more than double by 2050.

如果这一趋势得以沿续，那么到2050年活过60岁生日的非洲人会比现在翻一番。


This is of course good news; longevity is a key indicator of human development.

这当然是个好消息；长寿是人类发展的一项关键指标。


But Africa’s elder boom will be a disaster if living longer means living sicker because of inadequate health care.

但如果寿命延长意味着因医疗条件不足而罹患疾病 ，那么非洲的老年人口膨胀将带来灾难性的后果。


In Uganda, many rural health-care centers lack the personnel, supplies, and infrastructure to meet the needs of older patients.

在乌干达，许多农村医疗中心满足老年患者需求的人员、物资和基础设施都十分匮乏。


Small clinics typically refer their oldest patients to the closest big hospital, which is often many miles away.

小珍所通常会将最年长的患者转到最近的大医院，而大医院通常距离都在几英里开外。


Traveling by motorcycle over rough terrain can worsen health conditions; but with no other options, the frail must choose between a bumpy ride on the back of a bike and no treatment at all.

在崎岖山路上骑摩托车可能导致健康条件恶化；但因为没有其他选择，体弱者必须在骑车经受颠簸和放弃治疗之间作出选择。


It’s hard to blame those who opt for the latter.

难怪有人选择后者。


According to a 2010 survey by doctors at the Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, boda-bodas are Uganda’s leading cause of road-related injuries.

2010年坎帕拉姆拉哥国家转诊医院医生发起的一项调查显示，boda-bodas是乌干达道路伤害的主要原因。


During the survey period, motorcycle passengers accounted for 41% of the hospital’s 1,500 trauma cases, and riders’ injuries consumed 62.5% of the hospital’s surgery budget.

在调查期间，摩托车乘客占该院1，500起创伤病例的41 % ， 而骑车者的伤害占该院手术预算的62.5 % 。


Given the dangers of travel, it is no wonder that my grandparents are reluctant to seek medical care.

鉴于路上可能面临的危险，难怪我的祖父母不愿寻求医疗服务。


Of course, the biggest obstacle to health care in Uganda – like everywhere else – is money.

当然，像其他地方一样，钱才是乌干达医疗保健最大的障碍因素。


In 2015, researchers at Makerere University found that household income is the main determinant of elderly people’s access to and use of health-care services.

2015年，马克雷雷大学的研究人员发现家庭收入是老年人获取并使用医疗保健服务的主要决定因素。


The story is similar in the United States, where average annual health-care costs have been increasing for decades.

美国的情况也十分类似，平均每年的医疗保健成本近几十年来一直处于增加当中。


But while older patients in the US can turn to Medicare (which accounted for 15% of federal spending in 2017), the elderly in most African countries have less government support.

但虽然美国的老年患者可以借助联邦医疗保险（2017年占联邦开支的15 % ） ，但多数非洲国家的老年人却缺乏政府支持。


Still, a dearth of dedicated resources does not mean that Africa’s leaders must ignore their older constituents.

尽管如此，专属资源的欠缺并不意味着非洲领导人一定要忽视老年选民需求。


By combining elder-care services with existing programs, health benefits can be extended to underserved populations.

通过将老年人护理服务与现有计划相结合，可以将健康福利拓展到服务欠缺的人口。


For example, single-sector initiatives, like HIV/AIDS treatment schemes, could include elderly-friendly health-care components.

例如，像艾滋病毒/艾滋病治疗计划等单一领域计划可以纳入方便老年人的医疗保健元素。


Health-care workers who serve expectant and new mothers could also be trained to provide in-home care for the elderly in multigenerational households.

服务孕妇和新妈妈的卫生保健工作者也可以接受培训后在几代人共同生活的家庭为老年人提供上门医疗服务。


These types of initiatives would not require vast sums of money; rather, the most important factor in launching them is political support and effective program integration.

上述类型的计划不需要巨额资金；相反，启动该计划的最重要因素是政治支持和有效的项目整合。


Developing countries have made considerable gains when it comes to improving health care for the young.

发展中国家在改善年轻人的医疗服务方面已经取得了重大的进步。


Now, we must do the same for the elderly.

现在，我们必须为老年人提供同样的服务。


In Uganda, the government’s national health-care strategy could easily be strengthened by adding seniors to the list of so-called vulnerable groups.

在乌干达，将老年人列入所谓的弱势群体名单可以轻易实现对政府 国家医疗保健战略的强化。


Integrating elder-care options into existing frameworks – such as the health extension program in Ethiopia, the community-based health program in Tanzania, and village health teams in my country – are other ways to extend coverage.

扩大医疗覆盖范围的其他方式是将老年人保健方案纳入埃塞俄比亚卫生推广计划、坦桑尼亚社区卫生计划以及我所在国家的乡村卫生小组等现有医疗框架。


Finally, community health-insurance schemes must be overhauled to prevent the exclusion of poor older patients.

最后，为防止将贫困老年患者排除在外，必须对社区医疗保险计划进行彻底的改革。


To maintain coverage and protect the elderly from financial ruin, reforms are needed to create plans that are financially sound and drawn from a larger pool of subscribers.

为确保为老年人提供医疗服务并保护老年人避免财务破产，我们需要改革制定在财务上可行并扩大用户基数的保险计划。


We all yearn to live long, healthy, productive lives – just as my grandparents have.

人人都渴望像我的祖父母那样过上长寿、健康和有效率的生活。


But without lifelong access to quality health care, longevity will be more luck than science.

但如果没有终身高质量的医疗保健，就只能凭借运气而非科学来实现长寿。


The integrity of any society can be judged by how well it treats its youngest and oldest members.

如何对待最年轻和最年长的社会成员可以判定社会的健全程度。


That calculus applies to governments, too.

这样的推论同样适用于政府。


Africa’s Must-Do Decade

非洲这十年必须要做的事


VIENNA – Since 2000, Africa has recorded impressive rates of economic growth, owing largely to development assistance and a prolonged commodity boom.

维也纳 — — 自2000年来，主要因为发展援助和商品的长期繁荣，非洲的经济增长速度令人印象深刻。


While the continent shows great diversity in the socioeconomic trajectories, growth rates have generally masked an underlying lack of structural transformation.

尽管非洲大陆在社会经济的发展路径方面表现出极大的多样性，但增长率往往掩盖了背后结构转型的缺失。


Many African countries have yet to undergo the kind of transformation that is necessary for socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable development over the long term: namely, industrialization.

许多非洲国家仍未经历实现长期社会包容及环境可持续发展所需要的那种转型：那就是工业化。


Wherever industrialization has occurred, it has reliably improved economic diversification and helped to nurture, strengthen, and uphold the conditions for competitive growth and development.

无论工业化发生在哪里，它都勿庸置疑地促进了经济多样化，有助于培育、加强和维护竞争性发展和增长所需的环境。


In recent decades, some developing countries – mainly in Asia – have managed to industrialize.

近几十年来，一些发展中国家 — — 主要分布在亚洲 — — 成功地完成了工业化进程。


But, despite repeated attempts, African countries have not.

但尽管也曾反复尝试，非洲国家仍未能完成工业化进程。


In 2014, the Asia and Pacific region’s share of value added in global manufacturing was 44.6%, whereas Africa’s was just 1.6%.

2014年，亚太地区占全球制造业增加值的比重为44.6 % ， 而非洲则仅有区区1.6 % 。


With South Africa as its only industrialized country, Sub-Saharan Africa is the least industrialized region in the world.

因为只有南非一个工业化国家，撒哈拉以南非洲成为全世界工业化程度最低的地区。


For African countries to achieve sustainable development, they will have to increase substantially the share of industry – especially manufacturing – in their national investment, output, and trade.

非洲国家要想实现可持续发展，就必须在国家投资、生产和贸易等领域大幅增加工业 — — 尤其是制造业 — — 的比重。


And, to their credit, most African countries already recognize that such a transformation is necessary to address a wide range of interconnected challenges that they are now confronting.

值得肯定的是，绝大多数非洲国家已经认识到要想解决它们目前所面临的一系列相互关联的挑战，就必须进行这样的转型。


One such challenge is population growth.

其中一个挑战是人口的增长。


More than half of the continent’s 1.2 billion people are under the age of 19, and almost one in five are between the ages of 15 and 24.

非洲大陆12亿人有超过一半年龄在19岁以下，而且几乎1/5的人年龄在15到24岁之间。


Each year, 12 million new workers join the labor force, and they will need the tools and skills to ensure their future livelihoods.

每年都有1，200万新增劳动力加入到劳动力队伍，他们需要相应的工具和技能来确保未来的生活水平。


Industrialization is the key to helping Africa’s fast-growing population realize a demographic dividend.

工业化是帮助非洲快速增长的人口实现人口红利的关键要素。


A related challenge is migration.

与之相关的挑战是移民。


Many of Africa’s most ambitious and entrepreneurially minded young people are joining others in migrating north.

许多非洲国家最雄心勃勃并富于创业精神的年轻人正在和其他人一道向北方移民。


But no country, especially in Africa, can afford to lose so much talent and potential.

但没有哪个国家，尤其是非洲国家，能够承受得了一下子失去这么多的人才和潜能。


Industrialization alone cannot resolve the migration crisis, but it can address one root cause, by creating jobs in the countries of origin.

仅靠工业化无法解决移民危机，但却可以通过在原籍国创造就业机会的方式来化解其中一个根本原因。


A third challenge is climate change, which weighs heavily on countries where agriculture is still the primary sector for employment.

第三个挑战是气候变化，气候变化严重影响到仍然以农业作为主要就业领域的国家。


To confront the threat, Africa will need to develop and adopt green technologies, while channeling more investment into resource efficiency and clean energy.

要想面对这一挑战，非洲需要发展和应用绿色技术，同时为资源效率和清洁能源领域吸引更多投资。


With the right investments, African countries can reduce the cost of delivering power to rural areas, and contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.

如果有充足的投资，非洲国家可以降低向农村输电的成本，并贡献于减排和缓解气候变化影响的全球性事业。


In short, Africa must industrialize, and it must do so in a socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable manner.

总之，非洲必须实现工业化，而且必须以能确保社会包容和环境可持续的方式。


Given that most previous efforts at sustainable development in Africa have failed, there is a clear need for a new approach: a broad-based, country-owned process that taps financial and non-financial resources, promotes regional integration, and fosters cooperation among Africa’s development partners.

鉴于以往在非洲进行的可持续发展努力多数以失败告终，所以显然需要采取一种新的方式：可持续发展必须在拥有广泛基础的前提下照顾到国情，充分利用金融及非金融资源，推动地区一体化并培育非洲发展伙伴之间的合作关系。


As it happens, the United Nations General Assembly has declared 2016-2025 to be the Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa.

事实上，联合国大会已经宣布2016-2025年为非洲工业发展第三个十年。


During IDDA III, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, which I lead, will spearhead the new approach to sustainable development sketched above.

在工业发展第三个十年期间，由我领导的联合国工业发展组织将率先落实上面提到的可持续发展新方式。


UNIDO has put its full support behind partnerships for mobilizing resources, and is offering a tested model for African countries to follow: the Programme for Country Partnership (PCP).

联合国工业发展组织全力支持合作伙伴调动资源，同时为非洲国家提供了国家伙伴关系项目（PCP）这样一个经过验证的模式。


UNIDO’s PCP provides countries with technical assistance, policy advice, and investments to help them design and implement industrialization strategies.

联合国工业发展组织的国家伙伴关系项目为各国提供协助其设计并推行工业化战略的技术援助、政策咨询和投资。


The program was launched in 2014, and is already being successfully implemented in two African countries – Ethiopia and Senegal – and in Peru.

该项目于2014年启动，并已经在埃塞俄比亚和塞内加尔等两个非洲国家得到成功实施。


The PCP provides a multi-stakeholder partnership model that can be adapted to each country’s national development agenda.

国家伙伴关系项目提供了一种以多利益相关方为基础的伙伴关系模式，可以根据各国的国家发展议程进行调整后加以实施。


It is designed to work in synergy with governments and their partners’ ongoing development efforts, while funneling additional funds and investments toward sectors that have high growth potential and are important to a particular government’s industrial-development agenda.

它旨在与政府部门及其合作伙伴持续不断的发展努力协调合作，同时为具有高增长潜力和对政府工业发展议程至关重要的部门提供额外的资金和投资。


Priority sectors are typically chosen for their job-creation, investment, and export potential, and for their access to necessary raw materials.

人们通常会选择能创造就业岗位、吸引投资和具有出口潜力的部门作为优先投资对象，还有一个条件就是原材料必须容易获取。


The PCP approach is designed to maximize the impact of all partner programs and projects that are relevant to industrial development.

国家伙伴关系项目旨在令与工业发展相关的所有伙伴项目和计划的影响力得到最大限度的发挥。


To that end, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and the business sector are particularly important.

为了实现这一目的，与金融机构和企业部门建立战略伙伴关系尤为重要。


With these in place, African countries can marshal additional resources for infrastructure, innovation, expertise, and new technologies.

有了这些，非洲国家就可以筹集更多资源用于基建、创新、专业知识和新技术项目。


UNIDO’s goal is to make the PCP model the mainstream approach for all African countries.

联合国工业发展组织的目标是使国家伙伴关系模式成为所有非洲国家采用的主流模式。


We stand ready to support Africa on its path to inclusive and sustainable industrial development – during IDDA III and beyond.

我们随时准备支持非洲走向包容性和可持续的工业发展 — — 无论是在非洲工业发展第三个十年期间还是以后。


Africa’s Decade of Industrialization

非洲的工业化十年


VIENNA – In today’s interdependent global economy, Africa remains a weak link.

维也纳—在当今互相依存的全球经济中，非洲仍然是弱环。


If the world is to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, thereby completing the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, it must help Africa accelerate its development by promoting rapid and responsible industrialization.

要想实现可持续发展目标 ， ， 进而完成联合国2030年可持续发展日程，就必须通过促进迅速而负责任的工业化帮助非洲加快发展。


Africa is by no means destined to lag behind the rest of the world economy.

非洲绝不是注定要拖世界经济的后腿。


On the contrary, it could easily become a global economic powerhouse – and within the next decade.

相反，它很有希望成为世界经济的发动机 — — 并且未来十年就能实现。


But, to fulfill its economic potential, Africa must industrialize.

但是，要想实现其经济潜力，非洲必须工业化。


The importance of this has been stressed repeatedly at recent international forums, including last August’s Sixth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD VI), and the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, the following month.

这一点的重要性在最近的国际论坛中反复强调，包括去年8月的第六届东京非洲发展国际会议（TICAD VI）和9月的G20杭州峰会。


For the first time, the G20 placed industrialization in Africa – and all of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – on its agenda.

G20第一次将非洲 — — 以及全部最不发达国家 — — 的工业化列上日程。


The African Union’s Agenda 2063 also supports this drive.

非盟的2063年日程也支持非洲工业化。


The recent UN General Assembly resolution declaring 2016-2025 the Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa is yet another push in this direction.

最新的联合国大会决议将2016—2025年列为非洲工业发展的第三个十年，这是这一方向上的最新进展。


The organization that I represent, the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), has been tasked with operationalizing and leading the implementation of the concomitant program, including mobilizing the needed resources.

我所代表的组织 — — 联合国工业发展组织（UNIDO ） ， 承担了执行和领导实施多管齐下的计划的任务，包括动员所需要的资源。


All of these declarations and commitments are an important first step.

所有这些宣言和承诺都属于重要的第一步。


But they will mean little unless they are translated into concrete and effective action that advances African industrialization, creates jobs, and fosters inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development.

但除非能转化为切实有效的行动推进非洲工业化、创造就业、促进包容而可持续的经济增长和发展，否则它们毫无意义。


The question is how.

问题在于如何做到。


The short answer is money and action.

简单的答案是金钱和行动。


We must challenge the international community and development partners to back their words with real financial commitments.

我们必须敦促国际社会和发展合作伙伴兑现真金白银的融资承诺。


And we must build partnerships to operationalize programs that will enable Africa to become the world’s next main engine of economic growth.

我们必须构建合作伙伴关系执行能让非洲成为世界下一个经济增长主要引擎的计划。


Such programs must recognize and tackle the acute challenges the continent faces.

这些计划必须承认和解决非洲所面临的尖锐挑战。


The economic growth experienced in recent decades has not been structurally driven, sustainable, or fully inclusive.

近几十年来的经济增长并非结构性驱动，不可持续，也不完全包容。


Indeed, growth rates vary widely across the continent, and not all Africans are benefiting.

事实上，非洲国家的增长率彼此大相径庭，也并不是所有国家都在受益。


Though the middle class in Africa has expanded markedly in recent years, generating a consumer boom and boosting domestic investment, many people still struggle to make a living.

尽管非洲中产阶级在近几年中迅速扩大，形成了一波消费繁荣，也提振了国内投资，但许多人仍在艰难度日。


Unemployment rates are high, especially for young people and women – a reality that drives many Africans to head north.

失业率高企，特别是年轻人和妇女 — — 这个现实让许多非洲人向北方迁移。


To keep them home, Africa’s economies must move beyond producing raw materials to build dynamic and competitive manufacturing sectors with higher value added.

要想留住这些人，非洲经济体就不能只是生产原材料，也要构建充满活力和竞争力的增加值更高的制造业。


Here, Africa must draw on the opportunities presented by participation in global and regional value chains.

在这方面，非洲必须抓住参与全球和地区价值链的机会。


New and innovative industrial-development strategies, as well as carefully tailored measures to attract foreign direct investment, must be introduced.

必须引入新的创新性工业发展战略，以及精心设计的吸引外国直接投资的措施。


Of course, to develop such strategies and participate effectively in industrial value chains, Africans need knowledge.

当然，制定这些战略和有效参与工业价值链需要知识。


Investment in education and skills training is imperative to facilitate successful and lasting industrialization.

教育和技能培训投资是成功而持续的工业化的关进。


By understanding and drawing on proven innovations from around the world, Africa could leapfrog more developed countries technologically, building the capacity to produce more sophisticated, higher-value goods.

通过理解并从世界各地引进有效的创新，非洲能够在技术上赶超更加发达的国家，构建生产更先进、价值更高的商品的能力。


Knowledge of other countries’ experiences will also help Africa to avoid the pitfalls of unbridled industrialization – particularly environmental damage.

了解其他国家的经验也有助于非洲避免自由放任的工业化的弊端 — — 特别是环境破坏。


Africa must ensure that its industrial-development strategy includes effective environmental safeguards.

非洲必须确保其工业发展战略中包括有效的环境保护措施。


Africa is well placed to industrialize.

非洲的处境十分有利于工业化。


Beyond its massive natural-resource endowments, the continent has a favorable demographic profile (its rapidly growing population means that it will soon have the world’s largest workforce) and high urbanization rates.

除了富饶的自然资源禀赋，非洲还拥有有利的人口结构（迅速增长的人口意味着它很快就能拥有世界上最庞大的劳动力大军）和很高的城市化率。


It also benefits from a highly educated diaspora.

非洲也从受过良好的教育的侨民中获益。


But industrialization is never automatic.

但工业化不会从天上掉下来。


Governments must step up to address market failures, while planning, implementing, and enforcing industrial policies that address the shortcomings of previous ineffective versions.

政府必须出手解决市场失灵，同时规划、实施和执行解决此前低效方案的短板的产业政策。


They must then institutionalize these new policies in national and regional development strategies.

它们还必须将这些国家和地区发展战略制度化。


To succeed, governments will need adequate capacity, competence, and legitimacy to mobilize and interact with all stakeholders, thereby creating an attractive investment climate.

要想成功，政府必须有足够的能量、能力和合法性动员相关利益方并与之互动，从而建立有吸引力的投资气候。


The necessary reforms will open the way for public-private partnerships, which can provide investment for infrastructure development and maintenance.

实施必要的改革能打开公私合作之门，而公私合作能提供基础设施开发和维护投资。


They will also facilitate cooperation with international organizations and development finance institutions, which can provide additional funds, while helping countries to upgrade their productive capacity.

政府还要为与国际组织和发展融资机构的合作提供便利，后两者可以提供更多的资金，并帮助非洲国家升级产能。


A recent report, prepared for the Hangzhou G20 Summit, features a number of recommendations for Africa.

G20杭州峰会的报告为非洲列出了许多建议。


It suggests support for agriculture and agribusiness development and linking them with other sectors, as well as measures to boost resilience to price shocks.

报告提出要为农业和农商企业发展提供支持，让它们与其他部门形成连接，并采取措施加强对价格冲击的恢复力。


Furthermore, the report emphasizes the need to deepen, broaden, and update the local knowledge base, invest in energy- and material-resource efficiency, and promote green technologies and industries.

此外，报告强调需要深化、广化和更新地方知识储备，投资于提高能源和原材料效率，以及促进绿色技术和产业。


Other recommendations relate to trade and regional integration, leveraging domestic and external finance, and promoting what it calls the “New Industrial Revolution.”

其他建议包括贸易和地区一体化、利用本地和外部资金、促进所谓的“新工业革命”等。


My numerous meetings with African leaders and visits to dozens of countries across the continent have convinced me that Africa is committed to industrialization.

我与非洲领导人进行过数不清的会晤，也访问过数十个非洲国家，这些经历使我相信，非洲有工业化的决心。


In fact, the process is already underway in many countries, including Ethiopia, Ghana, Rwanda, and Senegal.

事实上，工业化在许多国家已经开始了，包括埃塞俄比亚、加纳、卢旺达、塞内加尔等。


By offering our commitment and support, we can enable these countries to realize inclusive and sustainable development for the benefit of everyone.

通过提供我们的承诺和支持，我们能让这些国家实现包容和可持续的发展，让所有人都从中获益。


A Roadmap for African Industrialization

非洲工业化路线图


ABIDJAN – Africa is at a crossroads.

阿比让—非洲正站在十字路口。


Six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are now located in the region, and the continent’s GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% this year, up from 3.6% in 2017.

今天，世界十个增长最快的经济体有六个在非洲，今年非洲GDP 增长预计将达4.1 % ， 而2017年为3.6 % 。


Yet Africa’s economic growth has not been accompanied by a commensurate level of job creation, which has particularly negative implications for women and young people.

但非洲经济增长并未带来相称的就业创造，这对妇女和年轻人的影响尤为消极。


In fact, today’s jobless growth could even reverse the gains made in eradicating poverty in recent years.

事实上，今天的无就业增长甚至可能抹杀近几年来所取得的减贫进展。


The problem is that Africa’s growth, while impressive, has been volatile, because it has been driven mainly by high commodity prices, rather than by manufacturing.

问题在于，非洲的增长虽然耀眼，但很不稳定，因为其主要系受到大宗商品价格高企而非制造业驱动。


The economic effects of this imbalance should not be underestimated.

这一失衡的经济影响不可低估。


Among other things, it explains why a region that produces about 75% of the world’s cocoa accounts for just 5% of the nearly $100 billion annual chocolate market.

它和其他因素一起导致了非洲产出全世界75%的可可，却只占近每年价值1,000亿美元的巧克力市场的5 % 。


Despite its vast natural resources, Africa will remain at the mercy of commodity prices and trade flows until it undertakes a profound structural transformation.

尽管拥有大量自然资源，非洲仍然需要靠大宗商品价格和贸易流吃饭，除非它实现深层次结构转换。


The time has come for Africa to unlock its true economic potential by following in the footsteps of every modern economy and undertaking the transition from agriculture to manufacturing.

非洲应该尽快循着所有现代经济体的轨迹，完成从农业到制造业的转型，释放其真正的经济潜力。


Africa’s manufacturing sector is the weakest link in its ongoing integration into the global economy.

在非洲融入全球经济的过程中，制造业是最弱的一环。


Today, primary products (raw materials) comprise 62% of Africa’s total exports, the highest share in the world.

今天，初级商品（原材料）占了非洲总出口额的62 % ， 这一比例为全球最高。


At the same time, manufactured exports per capita in 2014 totaled just $218, which is among the lowest levels in the world, and far below other developing regions such as Asia ($883) and Latin America ($1,099).

与此同时，2014年人均制造业出口总量只有128美元，位居世界最低行列，远低于亚洲（883美元）和拉丁美洲（1,099美元）等其他发展中地区。


Clearly, Africa must start catching up.

显然，非洲必须开始赶超。


Fortunately, there is already a global consensus that industrialization matters, and that it is in everyone’s interest for Africa to become the global manufacturing power it ought to be.

幸运的是，全球化很重要已是全球共识，而让非洲成为其应该成为的全球制造力量符合所有人的利益。


With its “High 5 Agenda,” the African Development Bank (AfDB) has made industrialization a top priority.

非洲开发银行（AfDB）提出了“五项重点日程 ” ， 将工业化列为最重要的工作。


Likewise, industrialization is a key component of the African Union’s “Agenda 2063.”

类似地，工业化也是非盟“2063日程”的重要组成部分。


And, in 2016, the United Nations General Assembly declared 2016-2025 the “Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa.”

2016年，联合国大会宣布2016—2025年为“非洲工业发展的第三个十年 ” 。


But such pronouncements are meaningless in the absence of concrete action.

但如果不拿出切实行动，这些宣告都毫无意义。


To change the region’s economic trajectory, African policymakers must focus on three key areas: industrial policies, infrastructure financing, and leadership.

要改变非洲的经济轨迹，非洲决策者必须聚焦于三个关键领域：产业政策，制造业融资，以及领导力。


We now know that industrial policies can be effective in boosting growth.

我们现在知道，产业政策对于刺激增长十分有效。


The question is whether states possess the capacity to implement the policies they design.

问题在于国家是否具备实施它们制定的政策的能力。


If they do, they can channel resources toward industry and marshal available technologies to create synergy between the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

如果具备，它们可以引导资源流向工业，利用可以利用的技术实现农业和制造业的协同。


A number of African countries have already moved in this direction.

不少非洲国家已经开始朝这一方向努力。


Ethiopia, for example, has created special economic zones, where it has lowered production costs by investing in infrastructure.

比如，埃塞俄比亚成立了特别经济区，通过基础设施投资降低生产成本。


As a result, the country has emerged as Africa’s largest hub for textile manufacturing, attracting major players like H&M and Primark.

结果，埃塞俄比亚成为非洲最大的纺织品制造中心，吸引了H&M和普利马克（Primark）等服装大牌。


Similarly, Rwanda’s Kigali Special Economic Zone, which exempts firms from taxes for ten years, has attracted a $20 million investment from Volkswagen for a new vehicle-assembly plant.

类似对，卢旺达的基加利特别经济区（Kigali Special Economic Zone）拥有十年免税权，吸引大众汽车公司投资2,000万美元建立了新的汽车组装厂。


But industrialization cannot happen without power, roads, and railways, which is why infrastructure must be a key focus.

但工业化不可能在没有电力、公路和铁路的情况下凭空出现，因此，基础设施也必须是关键。


As of now, the AfDB pegs Africa’s infrastructure gap at $130–170 billion per year.

目前，AfDB认为非洲基础设施缺口在每年1,300—1,700亿美元。


Closing it will require not just more financing, but also more innovative thinking, particularly concerning joint public-private efforts.

填补这一缺口不仅需要更多的融资，也需要创新思维，特别是公私合作方面的创新思维。


To that end, the AfDB has expanded its portfolio for financing new infrastructure projects in several countries.

在这方面，AfDB扩大了多国新基础设施项目的贷款。


As part of our “New Deal on Energy for Africa,” we have scaled up investment in renewable energy and put $265 million toward developing two solar-power plants in Morocco.

作为我们的“非洲能源新政”的一部分，我们增加了在可再生能源方面的投资，并拿出2.65亿美元用于开发墨西哥的两座太阳能电厂。


In Côte d’Ivoire, where demand for energy is surging by 8-9% annually, we are investing $60 million to bring a new 44-megawatt hydropower plant onstream.

在科特迪瓦，能源需求以每年8—9%的速度飙升，我们投资了6,000万美元在上游建立了一座新的44百万瓦的水电站。


African countries should make such investments now to reap the demographic dividend of the continent’s population bulge in the years ahead.

非洲国家应该多做这样的投资，从而在未来多年内实现非洲人口膨胀所带来的人口红利。


As manufacturing activities expand, they will need to be supported by more robust knowledge- and skill-based economies, which will require higher investment in education to boost technical and vocational skills and training.

随着制造业活动的扩张，需要更强大的以知识和技能为基础的经济的支持，这需要提高教育投资，提振技术和职业技能和培训。


No country has ever undergone economic modernization without industry.

没有一个国家可以在没有工业的情况下实现经济现代化。


But, more to the point, no functional industrial sector has ever emerged in the absence of strong, committed leadership.

但说得更透彻些，如果没有强大坚定的领导力，就不会有能正常运转的工业部门。


Consider Mauritius, which in the 1970s was a low-income mono-crop economy with a per capita GDP of just under $250.

以毛里求斯为例，20世纪70年代，它还是一个低收入的单一作物经济体，人均GDP只有250美元。


Today, Mauritius is an upper-middle-income country with a more diversified economy and a per capita GDP of around $9,600.

如今，它已是中上收入国家，经济实现了多样化，人均GDP高达9,600美元。


It is often cited as a model of economic success in Africa.

它经常被视为非洲经济成功的榜样。


How did this come about?

这一切是如何造就的？


As former Mauritian Prime Minister and President Anerood Jugnauth has put it, “There is no miracle.

毛里求斯前首相兼总统贾格纳特说 ： “ 没有奇迹。


It is due simply to hard work, discipline, and will.”

无非是努力工作、纪律和意志。


Leaders who want to develop a strong manufacturing base must have the political will to distribute resources fairly and pull the private sector along.

”想要发展强大制造业基础的领导人必须具备政治意志公平分配资源并与私人部门携手共进。


Mauritius experienced its fair share of challenges in moving from low-end manufacturing to technology-intensive goods and services.

毛里求斯在从低端制造业向技术密集型商品和服务转变时也遇到了各种挑战。


But it now stands as an example of what committed leadership can accomplish.

但如今，它已成为坚定的领导力能够取得什么成就的范例。


Other African countries would do well to emulate it as they pursue their own economic transformations.

其他非洲国家在追求各自的经济转型时，若能效而仿之，必能取得成效。


All told, Africa is well placed to seize many of the opportunities that the global economy offers emerging markets.

总而言之，非洲大有希望能够抓住全球经济给新兴市场带来的诸多机会。


It already has the resources and the labor; now it needs committed leaders like Jugnauth who will implement the right policies.

它拥有资源和劳动力；现在，它需要贾格纳特这样的坚定的领导人来实施正确的政策。


Africa’s Alternative Path to Development

非洲的另一条发展路径


WASHINGTON, DC – Recent projections indicate that several Sub-Saharan African countries will experience robust economic growth over the next five years.

发自华盛顿特区 — — 最近的几项预测指出几个撒哈拉以南非洲国家将在未来五年中实现强劲的经济增长。


By 2023, around one-third of the region’s economies will have grown at an average annual rate of 5% or higher since 2000.

从2000年到2023年间，该地区约有1/3的经济体将达到5％甚至更高的年均增长率。


And yet, as The Economist observed last year, Africa’s development model “puzzles economists.”

但正如《经济学人》杂志在去年观察到的那样，非洲的发展模式“让经济学家们感到困惑 ” 。


After all, only four of the continent’s high-growth countries are natural-resource dependent.

毕竟该大陆只有四个高增长国家是资源依赖型的。


Nor is overall performance due primarily to industrialization, as traditional development models would have predicted.

此外总体的发展也并不像传统发展模式所预测的那样主要由工业化所推动。


What, then, explains the strong economic performance?

那么又该如何解读这一强劲经济表现呢？


New research by the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative and the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) might hold the key to answering that question.

由布鲁金斯学会的非洲增长倡议课题组和联合国大学世界发展经济研究所联合进行的新研究可能拥有解答这个问题的钥匙。


According to the forthcoming book Industries Without Smokestacks: Industrialization in Africa Reconsidered, there is evidence to suggest that Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a more profound structural transformation than we think.

根据即将出版的《无烟工业：对非洲工业化的重新思考》一书，有证据表明撒哈拉以南非洲正在经历着比我们想象中更为深刻的结构性转型。


Africa owes this structural transformation not to traditional industries, but to new developments in tradable services and agro-industries that resemble traditional industrialization.

非洲这种结构性转型并非来自于传统工业，而是类似传统工业化进程的可贸易服务业和农业产业的新发展。


Aside from horticulture and agro-business, these new industries include information and communication technology-based services (ICT) and tourism.

除园艺和农产品业务外，这些新兴产业还包括基于信息和通信技术的服务业和旅游业。


This is a departure from the historical norm.

这就与历史常态背道而驰。


Traditionally, as Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik points out, economies that have sustained robust growth rates without relying on natural-resource booms, “typically do so through export-oriented industrialization.”

传统上，正如哈佛大学经济学家丹尼·罗迪克指出的那样，那些在不依赖高价自然资源的情况下保持强劲增长率的经济体“通常通过以出口为导向的工业化来实现增长 ” 。


But in Africa, manufacturing as a share of total economic activity has stagnated at around 10%, with economic activity moving from agriculture to services.

但在非洲，制造业占经济活动总量的比例一直停留在10％左右，经济活动也从农业直接跳到了服务业。


And because the rate of productivity growth in services is only about half that of manufacturing, the aggregate productivity gains needed for sustained growth have fallen relatively short.

由于服务业的生产率增长只有制造业的一半左右，因此实现持续增长所需的总体生产率增加值也相对较少。


This process of premature deindustrialization is not unique to Africa.

这种过早的去工业化进程可不是非洲独有的。


But it is more consequential for the continent, given the scale of its development challenges.

但考虑到非洲所面临的各项发展挑战的规模，这一进程对这块大陆的意义极为重大。


Owing to its young, rapidly growing labor force, Africa now needs to create more than 11 million jobs in the formal economy every year.

由于其劳动力大军普遍年轻且增长迅速，非洲现在还需要每年在正规经济中创造超过1100万个就业岗位。


But as Nobel laureate economist Joseph E. Stiglitz has warned, Africa cannot replicate East Asia’s manufacturing-led model, so the question is whether it can leverage modern services to achieve economic development.

但正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格里茨（Joseph E. Stiglitz）所警告的那样，非洲无法复制东亚那种制造业主导的模式，因此问题是它能否借助现代服务来实现经济发展。


According to Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for 2018, a Brookings Institution report previewing the results of Industries Without Smokestacks, services exports from Africa grew more than six times faster than merchandise exports between 1998 and 2015.

根据布鲁金斯学会发布的《非洲前瞻：2018年的重点优先事项》报告 — — 该报告概述了《无烟工业》一书中的各项结论 — — 在1998到2015年间，非洲的服务出口增速比商品出口增速快了六倍以上。


In Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, and South Africa, the ICT sector is flourishing.

在肯尼亚，卢旺达，塞内加尔和南非，基于信息和通信技术的服务业都实现了蓬勃发展。


In Rwanda, tourism is now the single largest export activity, accounting for about 30% of total exports.

在卢旺达，旅游业已经成为规模最大的单一出口活动，占到了该国出口总额的近30 ％ 。


Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal are all integrated into global horticultural value chains, and Ethiopia has become a leading player in global flower exports.

埃塞俄比亚，加纳，肯尼亚和塞内加尔都融入了全球园艺价值链，而埃塞俄比亚也已晋身为全球花卉出口的主要参与者。


As these smokestack-less industries have grown, they have generated new patterns of structural change that are distinct from those of East Asia’s manufacturing-led transformation.

随着这些无烟工业的发展，它们产生了与东亚制造业主导型转型不同的新结构变化模式。


But, if properly stewarded, they could play the same role in Africa’s development as manufacturing did in East Asia.

如果进行适当的统筹管理，这些工业也可以在非洲的发展中扮演和东亚制造业一样的角色。


First, manufacturing has higher productivity than agriculture, and it can absorb a large number of moderately skilled workers migrating out of the agriculture sector. Second, manufacturers benefit from technological transfers from abroad, so their productivity rises in line with global trends.

而制造业带动的增长之所以能成为东亚地区有效的发展模式，主要有三大原因：首先，制造业的生产率高于农业，可以吸收大量从农业部门迁移出来的中等技术工人；其次，制造商受益于来自国外的技术转让，所以它们的生产率提升速率与全球趋势同步；第三，东亚制造业以出口为导向，使得生产得以扩大。


According to John Page, one of the editors of Industries Without Smokestacks, Africa’s growing service sectors share these same characteristics.

正如《无烟工业》的编者之一约翰·佩奇（John Page）所说，非洲不断增长的服务部门具备相同的特点。


In addition to being tradable, they have higher productivity and can absorb large numbers of moderately skilled workers.

除了可交易外，它们还具有较高的生产力，可以吸收大量中等技术工人。


And like manufacturing, they also benefit from technological change and economies of scale and agglomeration.

像制造业一样，它们也受益于技术变革和经济的规模集聚效应。


Moreover, Africa’s smokestack-less service sectors have the added advantage of being less vulnerable to automation.

此外，非洲这些无烟服务部门还具有不易受工业自动化影响的优势。


Notwithstanding automation’s many benefits, it presents challenges for countries where the overriding priority is to create a sufficient number of formal-sector jobs.

尽管自动化有许多好处，但也为那些首要任务是创造足够数量正规部门就业岗位的国家提出了挑战。


While economists have been increasingly confident that Africa’s development model will be different from that of East Asia, they have been less certain about what shape it will take.

虽然经济学家越来越确信非洲的发展模式会与东亚不同，但他们对这种模式的最终形式还不确定。


An industries-without-smokestacks model offers one possible answer.

为此一个无烟工业模式则提供了一个潜在的答案。


From a policy perspective, African leaders should explore more ways to support these industries’ growth, either through targeted reforms or by incorporating them into national industrialization strategies and broader development agendas.

从政策角度来看，非洲领导人应该通过有针对性的改革或将其纳入国家工业化战略以及更广泛的发展议程来探索更多支持这些行业发展的方式。


The development of industries without smokestacks can occur alongside efforts to develop those with smokestacks, thus offering a multifaceted approach for Africa to achieve structural transformation.

无烟工业的发展可以与发展有烟工业的努力齐头并进，从而为非洲实现结构转型提供一个多方面多层次的路径。


Banking on African Infrastructure

寄希望于非洲的基础设施建设


JOHANNESBURG – As the US Federal Reserve embarks on the “great unwinding” of the stimulus program it began nearly a decade ago, emerging economies are growing anxious that a stronger dollar will adversely affect their ability to service dollar-denominated debt.

约翰内斯堡 — — 随着美联储开始“大逆转”近十年前开始的刺激计划，新兴经济体越来越担心美元走强会对其以美元计价债务的偿付能力造成负面影响。


This is a particular concern for Africa, where, since the Seychelles issued its debut Eurobond in 2006, the total value of outstanding Eurobonds has grown to nearly $35 billion.

对非洲而言这种担忧尤其严重，自塞舌尔2006年发行首支欧元债以来，尚未偿还的欧元债总值已经增长到近350亿美元。


But if the Fed’s ongoing withdrawal of stimulus has frayed African nerves, it has also spurred recognition that there are smarter ways to finance development than borrowing in dollars.

但如果说美联储持续退出刺激计划已经挑动了非洲国家的神经，同时也令人们意识到有比借美元债更加明智的发展融资方法。


Of the available options, one specific asset class stands out: infrastructure.

在现有方案中，有一种特定的资产类别脱颖而出：那就是基础设施建设。


Africa, which by 2050 will be home to an estimated 2.6 billion people, is in dire need of funds to build and maintain roads, ports, power grids, and so on.

非洲预计到2050年人口将达26亿左右，因此急需资金来修建和维护道路、港口、电网等基础设施。


According to the World Bank, Africa must spend a staggering $93 billion annually to upgrade its current infrastructure; the vast majority of these funds – some 87% – are needed for improvements to basic services like energy, water, sanitation, and transportation.

据世界银行统计，非洲必须每年花费惊人的930亿美元用于升级其现有基础设施；而这些资金中的绝大多数 — — 约占87 % — —将用于改善能源、饮用水、卫生和交通运输等基础服务。


Yet, if the recent past is any guide, the capital needed will be difficult to secure.

但如果说过去有任何经验可以借鉴，那就是筹措所需资金绝不是一项轻而易举的任务。


Between 2004 and 2013, African states closed just 158 financing deals for infrastructure or industrial projects, valued at $59 billion – just 5% of the total needed.

在2004到2013年间，非洲国家仅实际完成了158项基础设施或工业项目的融资交易，总值590亿美元 — — 仅占所需资金总额的5 % 。


Given this track record, how will Africa fund even a fraction of the World Bank’s projected requirements?

鉴于这样的过往经历，非洲能否筹措到世界银行预测要求的哪怕一小部分资金都存在很大变数。


The obvious source is institutional and foreign investment.

最明显的资金来源是机构和国外投资。


But, to date, many factors, including poor profit projections and political uncertainty, have limited such financing for infrastructure projects on the continent.

但到目前为止，许多因素，包括盈利预测不佳和政治不稳定，都对非洲大陆基础设施项目的融资能力构成了严重的限制。


Investment in African infrastructure is perceived as simply being too risky.

对非洲基础设施项目投资被视为高风险的选项。


Fortunately, with work, this perception can be overcome, as some investors – such as the African Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and the Trade & Development Bank – have already demonstrated.

幸运的是，就像一些投资者 — — 如非洲开发银行、南部非洲开发银行和贸易发展银行 — — 已经证明的那样，经过艰苦的努力，这种消极的看法可以被克服。


Companies from the private sector are also profitably financing projects on the continent.

来自私营部门的企业同样可以在非洲大陆基础设施项目融资当中有利可图。


For example, Black Rhino, a fund set up by Blackstone, one of the world’s largest multinational private equity firms, focuses on the development and acquisition of energy projects, such as fuel storage, pipelines, and transmission networks.

例如，由黑石公司设立的黑犀牛基金是全世界规模最大的跨国私募股权公司之一，该基金专门从事燃料储存、管道和输送网络等能源项目的开发和采购。


But these are the exceptions, not the rule.

但这些皆属例外，而非规则。


Fully funding Africa’s infrastructure shortfall will require attracting many more investors – and swiftly.

充分筹措资金解决非洲的基础设施短缺问题需要迅速吸引更多的投资者。


To succeed, Africa must develop a more coherent and coordinated approach to courting capital, while at the same time working to mitigate investors’ risk exposure.

要想取得成功，非洲必须制定一种更为协调一致的方法来讨好资本，并同时竭尽全力控制投资者的风险敞口。


Public-private sector collaborations are one possibility.

公共和私营部门合作提供了一种可能性。


For example, in the energy sector, independent power producers are working with governments to provide electricity to 620 million Africans living off the grid.

例如，在能源领域，独立的电力生产企业正在与政府合作为6.2亿尚未接入电网的非洲民众提供电能。


Privately funded but government regulated, these producers operate through power purchase agreements, whereby public utilities and regulators agree to purchase electricity at a predetermined price.

这些电力生产企业由私人出资并接受政府监管，通过电力采购协议来完成运营，公共事业部门和监管机构在电力采购协议中同意以事先约定的价格采购电力供应。


There are approximately 130 such producers in Sub-Saharan Africa, valued at more than $8 billion.

撒哈拉以南非洲地区约有130家这样的电力生产企业，总值超过80亿美元。


In South Africa alone, 47 projects are underway, accounting for 7,000 megawatts of additional power production.

仅南非一地就在开展47个相关项目，总共可以达到7000兆瓦的新增电力产能。


Similar private-public partnerships are emerging in other sectors, too, such as transportation.

交通运输等其他部门也正在出现类似的公私合作关系。


Among the most promising are toll roads built with private money, a model that began in South Africa.

其中最有前景的当属最早出现在南非的由私人投资兴建的收费公路。


Not only are these projects, which are slowly appearing elsewhere on the continent, more profitable than most financial market investments; they are also literally paving the way for future growth.

这些在非洲大陆其他地方逐渐出现的项目不仅比多数金融市场投资更有利可图；而且正在事实上为未来的经济增长铺平道路。


Clearly, Africa needs more of these ventures to overcome its infrastructure challenges.

显而易见，非洲需要更多这样的合资公司才能迎接基础设施所带来的挑战。


That is why I, along with other African business leaders and policymakers, have called on Africa’s institutional investors to commit 5% of their funds to local infrastructure.

因此我和非洲商业领袖及决策者共同呼吁非洲机构投资者将5%的资金用于投资当地的基础设施。


We believe that with the right incentives, infrastructure can be an innovative and attractive asset class for those with long-term liabilities.

我们相信只要激励措施得当，基础设施对那些拥有长期负债的机构而言完全可以成为创新且有吸引力的资产类别。


One sector that could lead the way on this commitment is the continent’s pension funds, which, together, possess a balance sheet of about $3 trillion.

能够领导这一目标的部门之一是非洲大陆的养老基金，该部门合计拥有约3万亿美元的资产负债表。


The 5% Agenda campaign, launched in New York last month, underscores the belief that only a collaborative public-private approach can redress Africa’s infrastructure shortfall.

上个月在纽约启动的5%议程行动强调了这样一种理念，即仅有公私合作方式能够改变非洲的基础设施短缺。


For years, a lack of bankable projects deterred international financing.

多年以来，缺乏银行贷款项目阻碍了国际融资。


But in 2012, the African Union adopted the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa, which kick-started more than 400 energy, transportation, water, and communications projects.

但2012年，非洲联盟通过了非洲基础设施开发计划，启动了超过400个能源、交通运输、水资源和通讯项目。


It was a solid start – one that the 5% Agenda seeks to build upon.

这是一个相当不错的开始 — — 也是5%议程行动赖以存在的基础。


But some key reforms will be needed.

但必须进行某些关键领域的改革。


A high priority of the 5% Agenda is to assist in updating the national and regional regulatory frameworks that guide institutional investment in Africa.

5%议程行动的重要目标是协助升级国家和地区监管框架，从而引导非洲的机构投资。


Similarly, new financial products must be developed to give asset owners the ability to allocate capital directly to infrastructure projects.

同样，必须开发新的金融产品，以便资产所有者能够将资金直接划拨给基础设施项目。


Unlocking new pools of capital will help create jobs, encourage regional integration, and ensure that Africa has the facilities to accommodate the needs of future generations.

解锁新的资金池将有助于创造就业机会、鼓励区域一体化及确保非洲拥有能满足子孙后代需求的基础设施项目。


But all of this depends on persuading investors to put their money into African projects.

但所有这些都取决于能否说服投资者将资金投入非洲建设项目。


As business leaders and policymakers, we must ensure that the conditions for profitability and social impact are not mutually exclusive.

身为商界领袖和决策者，我们必须确保赚取利润和社会影响的条件能够相互融合。


When development goals and profits align, everyone wins.

如果发展目标能够和利润保持一致，那么所有人都是赢家。


Freeing Africa’s Internet

解放非洲的互联网


WASHINGTON, DC – Much to the dismay of the government in Addis Ababa, “Zone 9” has become a household name in Ethiopia.

华盛顿—让亚的斯亚贝巴政府大吃一惊的是 ， “ 第九区 ” （ Zone 9）成了埃塞俄比亚一个家喻户晓的名字。


Since 2012, this small group of journalists-turned-online activists has used social media to campaign for political freedoms and civil liberties in their country.

2012年以来，这个线上记者活跃分子团体利用社交媒体要求国家实现政治自由和公民自由。


The group’s success – measured, for example, by the flood of likes and comments on its Facebook page – has come in spite of government efforts to silence the writers, including the arrest of six members in 2014 on trumped-up terrorism charges.

它的成功 — — 比如可以用其Facebook页面上的点赞和评论数量衡量 — — 是在政府试图让写手噤声的情况下取得的，包括2014年六名成员因为子虚乌有的恐怖主义指控而被逮捕。


Ethiopia’s government is not alone in seeking to consolidate political power by restricting what citizens say online.

埃塞俄比亚政府不是唯一一个试图通过限制公民的网络言论来巩固政治权力的政府。


Across Africa, governments are enacting legislation to restrict Internet access and outlaw criticism of elected officials.

放眼非洲，许多政府都实施了限制互联网接入、将对当选官员的批评入罪的法律。


Digital campaigners face myriad censorship tactics, including “Border Gateway Protocol” attacks, “HTTP throttling,” and “deep packet inspections.”

数字活动家面对各种审查技术，如“边界网关协议”攻击 、 “ HTTP限流”和“深层封包检测”等。


The irony, of course, is that censorship rarely quiets the disaffected.

当然，讽刺的是审查很少能够让不满噤声。


Rather than quelling dissent, government intervention only inspires more people to take their grievances to WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms, where Africans are increasingly challenging corrupt governments, exposing rigged elections, and demanding to be heard.

政府干预非但不能镇压异见，反而刺激了更多的人在WhatApp、Facebook、Twitter和其他社交媒体平台上宣泄不满，非洲人通过这些渠道对日益挑战腐败的政府、曝光被操纵的选举，并要求自己的声音被听到。


At the moment, however, few of Africa’s leaders are listening.

但此时此刻，很少有非洲领导人在聆听。


Leaders in nine of the 18 African countries that held elections in 2016 placed some level of restriction on the Internet to limit dissent.

在2016年举行了选举的18个非洲国家中，有九个国家的领导人实施了某种程度的互联网限制以遏制异见。


Four days prior to Uganda’s presidential vote in February, President Yoweri Museveni cut access to mobile payment services and social media sites.

2月份乌干达总统选举投票前四天，总统穆塞韦尼切断了移动支付服务和社交媒体网站。


In August and September, Gabon’s president, Ali Bongo, seeking to project an atmosphere of calm to the international community, shut down Internet access overnight.

8月和9月，加蓬总统班戈意欲在国际社会面前营造平静的氛围，关闭了夜间互联网接入。


Then in December, officials in Democratic Republic of the Congo ordered an Internet shutdown the day before President Joseph Kabila was scheduled to leave office, thereby quashing online dissent when he refused to step down.

12月，民主刚果官员下令在总统卡比拉卸任前一天关闭互联网，以压制他拒绝下台所引发的网上异见。


Internet blackouts like these violate people’s human rights and undermine democratic processes.

这类断网行为违反了人权，也破坏了民主进程。


Last year, the United Nations Human Rights Council approved a resolution affirming that, “rights that people have offline must also be protected online, in particular freedom of expression.”

去年，联合国人权委员会通过了一项决议，重申“人们在线下的权利，在线上也必须得到保护，特别是言论自由。 ”


Most African governments try to justify Internet embargoes by arguing that the restrictions are necessary to ensure public safety and security.

大部分非洲政府用辩称断网是为了确保公共安全和安保而不得已而为之。


Museveni, for example, claimed that blocking Internet access was the only way to protect visiting heads of state during his swearing-in ceremony.

比如，穆塞韦尼宣称切断互联网接入是在其就职典礼上保护来访的各国首脑的唯一办法。


But he presented no evidence linking social media accessibility and security in Uganda, or anywhere else.

但他没有拿出任何证据证明社交媒体接入和乌干达或其他任何国家的安全有什么联系。


According to Access Now, an international advocacy group for digital rights, people typically feel less secure without the Internet, because they cannot access information or connect with friends and family in times of uncertainty.

据推动数字权利的国际团体“马上连通 ” （ Access Now）组织的数据，断网通常让人感到更不安全，因为人们无法在不确定时获得信息或与亲朋取得联系。


With several key African elections coming up, Internet shutdowns are again on the horizon.

随着多个非洲国家重要选举的临近，断网也再次走进人们的视野。


In Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe, who is 93, is expected to run for his eighth term in mid-2018, a government-led crackdown appears inevitable.

在津巴布韦，93岁的总统穆加贝预计将履任其第八个总统任期（从2018年年中开始 ） ， 政府主导的镇压行动看来已是势在必行。


For decades, Mugabe has relied on intimidation and violence to stifle political dissent.

几十年来，穆加贝依靠恐吓和暴力扼杀政治异见。


It is not surprising, then, that he has already begun taking a hostile approach to online activism.

因此，毫不奇怪，他早已对在线活动持敌对态度。


Last year, his government shut down the Internet in the middle of political protests, and vowed to arrest anyone caught generating or sharing “abusive or subversive material on social media.”

去年，他的政府在政治示威期间关闭了互联网，并宣称要逮捕所有制造或分享“社交媒体上的诽谤或颠覆性材料”的人。


But citizens are not helpless.

但公民并非无望。


While governments issue orders to cut off Internet access, only telecommunications companies have the ability to hit the “kill switch.”

政府固然可以下令断网，但只有通讯公司有能力按下“死亡开关 ” 。


That is why Africa’s bloggers and online activists must work more closely with investors and shareholders of communications firms to convince them to stand up for democracy and human rights by resisting illiberal government directives.

因此，非洲博客写手和在线活动家们必须更加紧密地与通讯企业的投资者和股东合作，说服他们力挺民主和人权，拒绝反自由的政府指令。


Moreover, civil-society groups, the African Union, and the UN should do more to condemn national legislation that aims to normalize restrictive Internet policies.

此外，公民社会团体、非洲联盟和联合国应该加大力度谴责旨在将限制互联网的政策常规化的立法。


Just as it launched a model law on access to information in 2013, the African Union should provide new guidance to states on how to safeguard the right to assemble and express views online.

2013年，非盟发布了信息接触示范法，如今，它应该为各国提供新的指引，教它们如何捍卫在线收集和表达观点的权利。


Finally, new continent-wide measures are needed to ensure that Africans’ online rights are recognized and respected by their governments.

最后，需要新的洲级措施确保非洲在线权利得到政府和承认和尊重。


Although the UN Human Rights Council’s resolution to protect online freedoms is not binding, it offers a starting point for ensuring that governments allow citizens to use the Internet as a tool for maximizing political participation.

尽管保护在线自由的联合国人权委员会决议不具有约束力，但它为确保政府允许公民将互联网用作政治参与最大化的工具提供了一个起点。


Such interventions are needed now more than ever.

这些干预比以往任何时候都更加需要。


The Kenyan, Zimbabwean, and Ethiopian legislatures are currently considering laws that would permit significantly greater government control over Internet access.

肯尼亚、津巴布韦和埃塞俄比亚立法机关正在考虑显著扩大政府互联网接入管制权的立法。


Last year, Tanzania adopted legislation that has already been used to charge individuals with crimes who have criticized President John Magufuli on social media.

去年，坦桑尼亚实施了一项立法，被用来对在社交媒体上批评总统马古富力的个人提起刑事指控。


Whether governments bar citizens from gathering in public, signing petitions, or accessing the Internet and posting on social media makes no difference.

不管政府是禁止公民公开集会、签署请愿书，还是禁止公民接入互联网并在社交媒体上发帖，并没有什么区别。


All such measures are designed to strip citizens of their rights.

所有这些措施都是为了剥夺公民的权利。


The battle for freedom, as Zone 9 has shown, is no less real when the public square is the digital domain.

第九区表明，为了自由的斗争在数字领域和在公共广场上一样真实。


Capturing Africa’s High Returns

抓住非洲的高回报机遇


WASHINGTON, DC – Since 2000, at least half of the world’s fastest-growing economies have been in Africa.

华盛顿 — — 自2000年来，至少半数世界增长最快的经济体来自非洲地区。


And by 2030, Africa will be home to 1.7 billion people, whose combined consumer and business spending will total $6.7 trillion.

而截至2030年，非洲将拥有17亿人口，其消费和商业支出的总额将高达6.7万亿美元。


Seven years ago, the Harvard Business Review pointed out that Africa is also home to many of the world’s biggest opportunities.

七年前，哈佛商业评论就曾指出非洲是全世界最大的机遇所在地。


And yet, despite its tremendous business potential, Africa has not risen to the top of Western business leaders’ agendas.

但尽管商业潜力巨大，非洲却并没有被西方商业领袖作为议程的重中之重。


In fact, between 2014 and 2016, US exports to Africa fell by almost half, from $38 billion to $22 billion.

事实上，从2014到2016年间，美国对非洲出口骤降近半，从美元380亿下降到美元220亿。


And while the United Kingdom’s investments on the continent more than doubled between 2005 and 2014, reaching £42.5 billion ($57.6 billion), only 2.5% of its total exports are to Africa.

而尽管英国对非洲大陆的投资在2005到2014年间增长超过一倍，达到425亿英镑（合576亿美元 ） ， 但针对非洲的出口总额仅占2.5 % 。


Western countries are quickly losing ground to China, which increased its exports to Africa more than sevenfold – to $103 billion – from 2005 to 2015.

西方国家面对中国的挑战正迅速丧失优势，从2005到2015年间，中国对非洲的出口增长了七倍以上 — — 高达1，030亿美元。


If Western businesses hope to keep up, they will need to tap into the African countries and sectors with the highest potential for growth.

如果西方企业想要跟上中国的脚步，他们就必须充分利用非洲增长潜力最大的国家和部门。


By 2030, more than half of Africa’s population will reside in seven countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa.

到2030年，非洲超过一半的人口将居住在七个国家：包括尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、刚果民主共和国、埃及、坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚和南非。


But, more important, 43% of Africans will belong to the middle or upper classes, up from 39.6% in 2013, implying considerably higher demand for goods and services.

但更重要的是，43%的非洲人将上升至中上阶层， 而该数据在2013年仅为39.6 % ， 而这意味着对商品和服务的需求将大幅增加。


By 2030, household consumption is expected to reach $2.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion in 2015.

截止2030年，家庭消费预计将达到2.5万亿美元，而2015年的家庭消费总额仅有1.1万亿。


Nearly half of that $2.5 trillion will be spent in three countries: Nigeria (20%), Egypt (17%), and South Africa (11%).

其中三个国家将占到这2.5万亿美元消费总额的近半数：他们是尼日利亚（20 % ） 、埃及（17 % ） 和南非（11 % ） 。


But there will also be lucrative opportunities in Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia.

但阿尔及利亚、安哥拉、埃塞俄比亚、加纳、肯尼亚、摩洛哥、苏丹和突尼斯均存在能提供丰厚回报的机遇。


Any one of these countries would be a good bet for companies seeking to enter new markets.

上述国家中的任何一个都可以提供开拓新市场的良好机会。


By 2030, the sectors generating the most value in Africa will be food and beverages ($740 billion), education and transportation ($397 billion), and housing ($390 billion).

截至2030年，食品饮料（7，400亿美元 ） 、 教育交通（3，970亿美元）和住房（3，900亿美元）将成为非洲创造最大价值的行业。


But there will also be strong growth in consumer goods ($370 billion), hospitality and recreation ($260 billion), health care ($175 billion), financial services ($85 billion), and telecommunications ($65 billion).

但消费品（3，700亿美元 ） 、 酒店和娱乐（2，600亿美元 ） 、 医疗保健（1，750亿美元 ） 、 金融服务（850亿美元）和电信服务（650亿美元）同样将会增长强劲。


Of course, much of this growth will depend on the African Union properly implementing its new Continental Free Trade Area, which would create a single market for goods and services, offering corporations many points of entry.

当然，增长最终能否实现将取决于非洲联盟能否成功推行其新大陆自由贸易区。 这项政策将创造一个统一的商品和服务市场，为企业提供不止一个切入点。


Moreover, the CFTA will increase the need for connectivity, so there will be new opportunities to invest in infrastructure and sectors ranging from transportation and energy to information and communications technology (ICT) and water supplies.

不仅如此，新大陆自由贸易区将提升互联互通的必要性，从而在基础设施和从交通、能源、信息及通信技术（ICT）到供水等各行各业创造新的投资机遇。


For its part, the African Development Bank can help investors find promising projects through its Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa.

在这方面，非洲开发银行可以通过其非洲基础设施发展计划帮助投资者找到前景广阔的项目。


Another major growth area between now and 2030 will be in African business-to-business spending, which will reach $4.2 trillion, up from $1.6 trillion in 2015.

非洲企业对企业支出将成为从现在起到2030年另外一个主要增长领域，该支出总额将达4.2万亿美元，而2015年仅有美元1.6万亿。


Here, the largest sectors will be agriculture and agricultural processing ($915 billion), manufacturing ($666 billion), and construction, utilities, and transportation ($784 billion), followed by wholesale and retail ($665 billion), resources ($357 billion), banking and insurance ($249 billion), and telecommunications and ICT ($79.5 billion).

其中最主要的部门将包括农业和农产品加工（9，150亿美元 ） 、 制造（6，660亿美元 ） 、 建筑、公共设施及交通（7，840亿美元 ） ， 其次还有批发和零售（6，650亿美元 ） 、 资源（3，570亿美元 ） 、 银行和保险（2，490亿美元）以及电信和信息及通讯技术（795亿美元 ） 。


The expected growth in agriculture and agricultural processing reflects the fact that food and beverages will constitute the largest share of total household spending.

农业及农产品加工业的预期增长反映了食品饮料将占据非洲家庭开支最主要份额的现实。


Moreover, 60% of the world’s unused arable land is in Africa, which still contributes a meager share of worldwide agricultural exports.

不仅如此，地球60%的闲置土地均位于非洲，即便如此，非洲仍然能为世界农业出口尽一份微薄之力。


That means there is a lot of room for growth.

这意味着非洲拥有巨大的增长潜力。


And, because severe hunger still affects many African countries, investors can even contribute to the public good by investing in fertilizers, machinery, water and irrigation systems, and other areas of the agriculture sector.

而且，由于严重饥荒仍影响许多非洲国家，投资者甚至可以通过投资肥料、机械、供水及灌溉系统以及农业部门的其他领域推动实现公共利益。


As of 2012, the African countries with the highest agricultural value-added in terms of annual growth included Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania.

截止2012年，农业增加值年增长率最高的非洲国家包括布基纳法索、埃塞俄比亚、尼日利亚、马里、莫桑比克、卢旺达和坦桑尼亚。


In addition, Angola, Morocco, and South Africa now all have sizable markets, and have committed to expanding their agricultural sectors.

不仅如此，安哥拉、摩洛哥和南非现在都拥有规模庞大的市场，并致力于扩大其农业部门的实力。


According to the Harvard Business Review, Africa also has the potential to become “the world’s next great manufacturing center.”

据哈佛商业评论报道，非洲同样具备成为“世界下一个大型制造中心的潜力 ” 。


China is expected to lose from 85-100 million low-cost, labor-intensive manufacturing jobs by 2030, and Africa stands to capture many of them.

截至2030年，中国预期将丧失8，500万到1亿个低成本、劳动密集型的就业岗位，而非洲将成为其中许多岗位的承接地。


This helps to explain why manufacturing will be the second-largest sector in terms of business-to-business spending.

这有助于说明企业对企业支出的第二大领域为什么是制造业。


Another reason is that many of the manufacturing opportunities in Africa happen to be in globally competitive sectors such as automobiles and transport equipment, refined petroleum, computers, and office and industrial machinery.

另一个原因是非洲许多制造业机遇恰恰来自于像汽车及运输设备、石油精炼、计算机、办公及工业机械等全球性竞争领域。


South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria are already becoming promising places to invest in these areas.

南非、埃及和尼日利亚已经成为投资上述领域的新兴之地。


And investors will also be able to find high returns and favorable business environments in Ethiopia, Morocco, and Rwanda.

投资者也能在埃塞俄比亚、摩洛哥和卢旺达找到高回报和有利的商业环境。


Africa is the world’s last frontier market, and Western businesses need to start taking advantage of its tremendous potential, as Chinese firms already are.

非洲是世界最后一块前沿市场，西方企业需要效仿中国，开始发掘其所拥有的巨大潜力。


Doing business in Africa will also create sustainable jobs and advance the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to eliminate poverty and hunger.

在非洲开展业务还能在创造可持续就业机会的同时推动完成联合国消灭饥饿和贫困的可持续发展目标任务。


And that, too, will be good for the bottom line.

而这归根结底也是件好事。


As the Business and Sustainable Development Commission has shown, pursuing the SDGs “could raise trillions in new market opportunities in ways that extend prosperity to all.”

正如商业及可持续发展委员会所表明的那样，实现可持续发展目标“能够以一种令所有人都兴旺发达的方式开拓价值数万亿美元的全新市场机遇。 ”


Strengthening African Science

加强非洲的科学


URBANA, ILLINOIS – In late March, Africa’s leading scientists, innovators, and policymakers met in Kigali, Rwanda, to brainstorm solutions to an increasingly pressing problem: the low quality of science on the continent.

乌尔班纳，伊利诺伊州—3月底，非洲著名科学家、创新者和决策者齐聚卢旺达基加利，为一个日益紧迫的问题展开头脑风暴寻找解决方案：非洲低劣的科学质量。


Any good leader knows that scientific discovery and innovation fuels progress, facilitates development, and can help tackle issues like food insecurity, water shortages, and climate change.

优秀领导人都知道，科学发现和创新驱动进步、促进发展，还有助于解决粮食不安全、水短缺和气候变化等问题。


And yet most African governments are failing to fund research and development adequately in their countries.

但大部分非洲国家政府都没有为国内研究和开发提供足够的资金。


According to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa spend, on average, just 0.5% of GDP on research and development.

据联合国教科文组织统计局，撒哈拉以南非洲各国平均研发支出仅占GDP的0.5 % 。


In the West, the share is closer to 3%.

在西方，这一比例接近3 % 。


This disparity underscores the development challenges that Africans face.

这一差距构成了非洲所面临的发展挑战。


Africa is home to 15% of the world’s population and 5% of its GDP, but accounts for a paltry 1.3% of total research spending.

非洲人口占世界的15 % ， GDP占5 % ， 但研究总支出只占1.3 % 。


Moreover, African inventors hold just 0.1% of the world’s patents, meaning that even when money is spent on science, innovation, and research, the findings rarely translate into solutions for the continent’s most immediate challenges.

此外，非洲创新者只拥有世界专利的0.1 % ， 这意味着即使把钱用在了科学、创新和研究上，成果也很少能转化为解决非洲最紧迫挑战的方案。


To be sure, these trends are not universal; some African governments are investing heavily in science-led innovation.

平心而论，这些趋势并非放之非洲而皆准；一些非洲政府中金投资于科学驱动的创新。


In South Africa, for example, authorities have pledged to double R&D spending by 2020 – to 1.5% of GDP.

比如，在南非，当局承诺到2020年将研发支出提高一倍，至GDP的1.5 % 。


This follows a 2016 commitment by African heads of state to increase science and technology budgets to at least 1% of GDP by 2025.

在此之前，2016年非洲各国首脑承诺到2025年至少将科学技术预算提高到GDP的1 % 。


A handful of countries – including Kenya, Rwanda, and Senegal – are working hard to reach this funding threshold.

少数国家 — — 包括肯尼亚、卢旺达和塞内加尔 — — 正在努力达到这一拨款阈值。


Africa also benefits from generous research-related aid and international support.

非洲也从慷慨的研究相关援助和国际支持中获益。


One of the top donors, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has invested more than $450 million in African science initiatives over the last decade.

贡献最大的捐助者之一比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会在过去十年中位非洲科学项目投入了4.5亿多美元。


Projects include a $306 million program to boost crop yields and a $62.5 million grant to improve health outcomes.

这些项目包括一个3.06亿美元的作物增产计划和一笔6,250万美元的健康改善资金。


These and other funding streams have helped African researchers develop drought-resistant crops, produce vaccines for infectious diseases like Ebola, and expand opportunities for science and technology education.

这些和其他资金流帮助非洲研究者开发了抗旱作物，为埃博拉等传染病生产疫苗，增加了科学和技术教育的机会。


Unfortunately, many African governments lack the resources to fund programs that could build on these gains.

不幸的是，许多非洲政府缺少为可以在这些收益的基础上更进一步的项目提供资金的资源。


Simply put, a new, more collaborative approach to African science is urgently needed.

简言之，非洲科学急需更有合作精神的新方案。


Africa’s leaders have pooled their science resources before.

非洲领导人曾经集中过他们的科学资源。


In 2003, the African Union and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development began implementing a continent-wide strategy “to develop and use science and technology for the socioeconomic transformation of the continent and its integration into the world economy.”

2003年，非盟和非洲开发新合作计划（New Partnership for Africa’s Development）开始实施一项洲际战略 “开发和运用科学和技术推动非洲社会经济转型、促使其融入世界经济。


It was an ambitious goal that yielded early results.

”这是一个宏伟的目标，并已经产生了早期结果。


Between 2005 and 2014, continent-wide spending on R&D increased, while research output more than doubled in many countries.

2005—2014年，非洲研发支出实现增长，许多国家的研究产出不止翻番。


Since then, however, progress has stalled.

但此后进展陷入了停滞。


The recent meeting in Rwanda, hosted by President Paul Kagame and organized by the Next Einstein Forum, was designed to help get the agenda back on track.

最新的卢旺达会议由下一个爱因斯坦论坛（Next Einstein Forum）组织，总统卡加姆主持，旨在帮助该日程重回正轨。


But summits are only part of the solution; governments must also commit to improving research quality, and they can start by focusing attention on three key areas.

但峰会只是解决方案的一部分；政府还必须致力于改善研究质量，它们可以从关注三个关键领域开始。


First, Africa’s leaders must engage with CEOs, philanthropists, and donors who understand the long-term value of investing in science.

首先，非洲领导人必须与了解科学投资的长期价值的CEO、慈善家和捐赠者合作。


Innovation is expensive, and seed money will be needed to help strengthen the continent’s scientific capacity.

创新是昂贵的，需要种子基金帮助强化非洲的科学能力。


Second, African universities and institutions should align their research agendas with national and regional goals.

其次，非洲大学和机构应该理顺研究日程与国家和地区目标的关系。


For example, given that one of Africa’s most pressing challenges is feeding its growing population, schools specializing in agricultural research should ensure that their work contributes to solutions.

比如，非洲最紧迫的挑战是养活日益增长的人口，专注于农业研究的院校应该确保它们的工作有助于这一目标。


Last but not least, countries should encourage entrepreneurship within research organizations.

第三，各国应该鼓励研究组织内部的企业家精神。


One way to do this is by establishing commercialization offices, which could help scientists bring their research to market.

一个办法是建立商业化办公室，商业化办公室有助于科学家的研究面向市场。


Scientists everywhere need help navigating bureaucracy when turning an idea into a commercial venture, and this process is particularly challenging in a region where R&D pipelines are in their infancy.

各国科学家在将概念转化为商业项目时，都需要帮助应付官僚主义，而这一过程在研发渠道尚处在襁褓阶段的地区尤其具有挑战性。


Boosting Africa’s scientific capabilities will require the continent’s leaders to do more than ask tough questions at summits; they must also allocate more funding and forge new partnerships.

提高非洲的科学实力需要非洲领导人不仅仅要在峰会上提出尖锐的问题；他们还必须配置更多的资金，构建新的合作关系。


To overcome Africa’s human development challenges, African governments must invest in the people who can overcome them.

要克服非洲的人类发展挑战，非洲政府必须投资于能够克服这些挑战的人。


The High Cost of Food Monopolies in Africa

非洲粮食垄断的高昂代价


LAGOS – In May, global food prices increased 1.2%, reaching their highest level since October 2017.

拉各斯—5月，全球粮食价格上涨1.2 % ， 达到了2017年10月以来的最高水平。


This upward trajectory is having a disproportionate impact in Africa, where the share of household income spent on food is also rising.

这波涨势正在给非洲造成非常大的影响，家庭用于粮食的支出比例也节节攀升。


To ensure food security, governments must work quickly to reverse these trends, and one place to start is by policing the producers who are feeding the frenzy.

为了确保粮食安全，政府必须迅速行动起来扭转这些趋势，一个起点是整顿囤积居奇的生产商。


According to data compiled by the World Economic Forum, four of the world’s top five countries in terms of food expenditure are in Africa.

据世界经济论坛收集的数据，全世界粮食支出最高的五个国家有四个在非洲。


Nigeria leads the list, with a staggering 56.4% of household income in 2015 spent on food, followed by Kenya (46.7%), Cameroon (45.6%), and Algeria (42.5%).

尼日利亚高居榜首，2015年56.4%的家庭收入用在了食品上，其次是肯尼亚（46.7 % ） 、喀麦隆（45.6 % ） 和阿尔及利亚（42.5 % ） 。


By comparison, consumers in the United States spend the least globally (6.4%), far less than people in emerging economies like Brazil (16%) and India (30%).

相比而言，美国消费者的支出为全球最低（6.4 % ） ，远低于巴西 (16 % ) 和印度 (30 % ) 等新兴经济体。


One reason for the distortion is the price of food relative to income.

如此扭曲的一个原因是相对于收入的粮食价格。


As Africa urbanizes, people are buying more imported semi- or fully processed foods, which cost more than locally produced foods.

随着非洲日渐城市化，人们开始购买更多进口半加工或全加工食品，这些食品比本地生产的食品更贵。


And in most countries, wages have not kept pace with inflation.

而在大部分国家，工资赶不上通货膨胀。


But the primary cause is poor public policy: African governments have failed to curb the power of agribusinesses and large food producers, a lack of oversight that has made local agriculture less competitive.

但主要原因是拙劣的公共政策：非洲政府没有遏制农商企业和大型食品制造商的权力，缺乏监督导致本地农业竞争力低下。


In turn, prices for most commodities have risen.

反过来，大部分大宗商品价格节节上涨。


The absence of antitrust laws, combined with weak consumer protection, means that in many countries, only two or three major companies control markets for items like salt, sugar, flour, milk, oil, and tea .

反垄断法的缺位，加上消费者保护不足，导致在许多国家两三家大公司控制了盐、糖、面粉、奶、油和茶等东西的市场。


The impact is most pronounced in African cities, where prices for white rice, frozen chicken, bread, butter, eggs, and even carbonated soft drinks are at least 24% higher than in other cities around the world.

非洲城市所受到的影响最为突出，白米、冷冻鸡肉、面包、黄油、鸡蛋甚至碳酸饮料的价格要比世界其他城市至少高出24 % 。


These prices hit consumers both directly and indirectly (owing to pass-through of higher input costs by food conglomerates and service providers).

这些价格直接间接地影响着消费者（通过推高食品生产集团和服务提供商的投入品成本传导 ） 。


The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has long argued that food security and fair pricing depends on markets that are free from monopolistic tendencies.

联合国粮农组织一直强调，粮食安全和公平定价取决于市场不能走向垄断。


The OECD concurs, and has frequently called on authorities to address “anti-competitive mergers, abuse of dominance, cartels and price fixing, vertical restraints, and exclusive practices” in the food sector.

经合组织国家频繁要求当局解决粮食行业的“反竞争兼并、滥用主导地位、卡特尔和固定价格、纵向约束以及排斥行为”问题。


And yet, in many African countries, this advice has rarely been heeded.

但是，在许多非洲国家，这一建议很少有人会听。


To be sure, this is not a new problem.

平心而论，这并不是什么新问题。


Between 1997 and 2004, for example, the FAO counted 122 allegations of “anti-competitive practices” in 23 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Violations included a “vertical monopoly” in the Malawi sugar sector, price fixing in Kenya’s fertilizer industry, and a “buyer cartel” in the Zimbabwean cotton industry.

比如，1997—2004年间，粮农组织在23个撒哈拉以南非洲国家发起了122宗“反竞争行为”指控。 违法行为包括马拉维糖业的“纵向垄断 ” 、 肯尼亚化肥业的价格固定，以及津巴布韦棉花业的“买家卡特尔 ” 。


And, despite the considerable attention such cases have received, the underlying problems persist.

而尽管这些案件引起了广泛关注，其根本问题顽固依旧。


According to the World Bank, more than 70% of African countries rank in the bottom half globally for efforts to protect “market-based competition.”

据世界银行，超过70%的非洲国家在全球保护“基于市场的竞争”行为排行榜上位于后半部分。


While 27 African countries and five regional blocs do have antitrust laws on the books, enforcement is rare.

27个非洲国家和5个地区已经有了成文的反垄断法，但几乎没有执法可言。


The remaining countries have no regulations at all and have made little progress in drafting them.

其他国家根本没有反垄断规则，连起草工作都鲜有国家在推进。


There is one notable exception: South Africa.

南非是一个显著的例外。


Since 1998, the country’s Competition Act has prohibited any company controlling at least 45% of the market from excluding other firms or seeking to exercise control over pricing.

1998年以来，南非竞争法禁止任何公司通过排斥其他企业或寻求操纵价格控制45%或以上的市场份额。


Violators face penalties of up to 10% of their earnings, and during the last two decades, some of the biggest companies in the country – including Tiger Brands, Pioneer Foods, and Sime Darby – have been penalized.

违反者面临高达收益的10%的罚款，在过去二十年中，南非的一些公司巨头，如Tiger Brands、Pioneer Foods和森达美（Sime Darby ） ， 都被罚过款。


As Tembinkosi Bonakele, head of South Africa’s Competition Commission, noted last year, the government is “determined to root out exploitation of consumers by cartels,” especially in the food industry.

南非竞争委员会主席特姆宾柯西·博纳科勒（Tembinkosi Bonakele）在去年指出，政府“决心杜绝卡特尔剥削消费者的现象 ， ” 特别是在粮食行业。


Other countries should follow South Africa’s lead.

其他国家应该效仿南非的榜样。


Companies and special-interest groups will always seek to benefit from the absence of regulation.

公司和特殊利益集团永远不会停止寻求钻监管的空子获益。


The need for reform is greatest in countries like Nigeria and Ghana, where food expenditures are high and food-industry pressure is most pronounced.

尼日利亚和加纳等国家最需要改革，在这些国家，粮食支出比例畸高，粮食安全压力最大。


Fortunately, there is growing recognition of the need to address these challenges.

幸运的是，越来越多的人开始认识到必须解决这些挑战。


Babatunde Irukera, Director General of the Consumer Protection Council in Nigeria, recently asserted that, “In a large vibrant and loyal market such as Nigeria, the absence of broad competition regulation is tragic.

尼日利亚消费者保护委员会总干事巴巴吞德·伊鲁克拉（Babatunde Irukera）最近表示 ， “ 在尼日利亚这样的生机勃勃又忠诚的大市场，广泛的竞争监管缺位实属悲剧。


Unregulated markets in competition context constitute the otherwise ‘legitimate’ vehicle for both financial and social extortion.”

竞争环境中的不受监管的市场沦为金融和社会敲诈的‘合法’外衣。 ”


Reducing the prices of staple food by even a modest 10% (far below the average premium cartels around the world charge) by tackling anticompetitive behavior in these sectors, or by reforming regulations that shield them from competition, could lift 270,000 people in Kenya, 200,000 in South Africa, and 20,000 in Zambia out of poverty.

通过处置这些行业的反竞争行为，或通过改革阻止竞争的监管，从而降低主粮价格，哪怕只是区区10 % （ 远低于全球卡特尔所要求的的平均溢价 ） ， 都能让270,000肯尼亚人、200,000南非人、20,000津巴布韦人摆脱贫困。


Such a policy would save households in these countries over $700 million (2015 US dollars) a year, with poor households gaining disproportionately more than rich ones.

这一政策将为这些国家的家庭每年节省超过7亿美元（2015年美元 ） ， 贫穷家庭所得到的好处要远大于富裕家庭。


Ultimately, it is the responsibility of political leaders to protect consumers from collusion and price-fixing.

说到底，保护消费者免受勾结和价格固定影响是政治领导人的责任。


There is no question that Africa’s businesses need space to innovate and grow, but their success should never come at the cost of someone else’s next meal.

毫无疑问，非周期也需要通过创新实现增长的空间，但它们的成功决不能以某些人的下一顿饭为代价。


The Cancer Threat to Africa’s Future

非洲未来的癌症威胁


CHICAGO – One of the most pressing public-health challenges in Africa today is also one of the least reported: cancer, a leading cause of death worldwide.

芝加哥 — — 当今非洲最紧迫的公共卫生挑战之一也是报道最少的：那就是癌症，世界各地最主要的死亡原因。


Every year, some 650,000 Africans are diagnosed with cancer, and more than a half-million die from the disease.

每年都有约650,000非洲人被确诊患有癌症，并有超过50万人因这种疾病而死亡。


Within the next five years, there could be more than one million cancer deaths annually in Africa, a surge in mortality that would make cancer one of the continent’s top killers.

未来五年内，非洲可能每年都有超过100万人因癌症死亡，死亡率激增将使癌症成为非洲大陆最主要的致死疾病。


Throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, tremendous progress has been made in combating deadly infectious diseases.

在整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区，人们在打击致命传染病方面取得了重大的进步。


In recent decades, international and local cooperation have reduced Africa’s malaria deaths by 60% , pushed polio to the brink of eradication, and extended the lives of millions of Africans infected with HIV/AIDS.

近几十年来，国际和地方合作已成功将非洲的疟疾死亡人数降低了60 % 、 几乎完全根除了小儿麻痹症，并延长了数以百万计感染艾滋病毒/艾滋病的非洲人的生命。


Unfortunately, similar gains have not been made in the fight against non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cancer.

不幸的是，在抗击包括癌症在内的非传染性疾病（NCDs）的过程中并没有取得类似的进步。


Today, cancer kills more people in developing countries than AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis combined.

今天，癌症在发展中国家致死的人口数量比艾滋病、疟疾和肺结核加起来还要多。


But, with Africa receiving only 5% of global funding for cancer prevention and control, the disease is outpacing efforts to contain it.

但由于非洲仅获得全球癌症预防和控制资金的5 % ， 遏制癌症的努力根本赶不上这种疾病的蔓延速度。


Just as the world united to help Africa beat infectious disease outbreaks, a similar collaborative approach is needed to halt the cancer crisis.

正如全世界联合起来帮助非洲遏制传染病爆发一样，必须采取类似的手段来遏制这场癌症危机。


Surviving cancer requires many things, but timely access to specialists, laboratories, and second opinions are among the most basic.

癌症患者生存需要许多东西，但及时得到专家、实验室和补充诊疗意见却是最基本的。


Yet, in much of Africa, a lack of affordable medications, and a dearth of trained doctors and nurses, means that patients rarely receive the care they need.

但在非洲绝大部分地区，廉价的药品、训练有素的医生和护士都极为短缺，这意味着患者很少能够得到他们所需要的护理服务。


On average, African countries have fewer than one trained pathologist for every million people, meaning that most diagnoses come too late for treatment.

平均而言，非洲国家每百万人口仅有不到一位训练有素的病理学家，这意味着绝大多数人无法在癌症尚可治疗期间获得准确的诊断服务。


According to University of Chicago oncologist Olufunmilayo Olopade, a diagnosis of cancer in Africa is “nearly always fatal.”

按照芝加哥大学肿瘤学家Olufunmilayo Olopade的说法，非洲的癌症诊断“几乎总是致命的 ” 。


Building health-care systems that are capable of managing infectious diseases, while also providing quality cancer care, requires a significant investment in time, money, and expertise.

建设能够管理传染性疾病、同时也能提供优质癌症护理服务的医疗保健系统需要在时间、金钱和专业知识方面进行巨大的投入。


Fortunately, Africa already has a head start.

幸运的是，非洲已经有了一个不错的开头。