At least, however, IT products and services are very cheap, so even the relatively poor can afford them.

但是，至少IT产品和服务非常便宜，因此即使是相对贫困的人也可以买得起。


That might make very unequal societies more stable than many fear.

这或许能让非常不平等的社会比许多人所担心的更稳定。


In his recent book Average is Over, the economist Tyler Cowen makes the deliberately provocative argument that while new technology will produce extreme inequality, the relative losers, satiated by computer games and Internet entertainment, and provided with the basics of a minimally acceptable life, will be too docile to revolt.

在其新著《告别平均 》 （ Average is Over）中，经济学家泰勒·柯文（Tyler Cowen）提出了一个有意的挑衅性观点：尽管新技术会造成集团不平等，但满足于电脑游戏和互联网娱乐、能够获得可接受的最低限度基本生活条件的相对输家将成为顺从的良民，根本不会闹革命。


Cowen may be right; the poor may not rebel.

柯文也许是对的；穷人可能不会起义。


But extreme inequality should still concern us.

但极端不平等仍让我们忧心忡忡。


Beyond a certain point, unequal outcomes inevitably fuel greater inequality of opportunity; and extreme inequality of either outcomes or opportunity can undermine the idea that we should all be equal as citizens, if not in material standard of living.

超过一定限度的不平等结果难免会引起更大程度的机会不平等；而不管是结果还是机会的极端不平等都会破坏人人平等 — — 即使物质生活条件不平等，公民身份也是平等的 — — 的观念。


So Pope Francis was right: despite capitalism’s undoubted success as a system for generating economic growth, we cannot rely on market forces alone to generate desirable social outcomes.

因此教皇方济各是对的：尽管资本主义作为一种制度在创造经济增长方面毫无疑问是成功的，但我们不可能完全只依靠市场力量创造值得追求的社会结果。


All new technologies create opportunities, but free markets will distribute the fruits of some new technologies in dramatically unequal ways.

所有新技术都创造机会，但自由市场分配新技术的果实的方式可能非常不平等。


Offsetting such outcomes will be a greater challenge today than it has been in the past.

如今，如何抵消这一结果的挑战比以前更大了。


Protectionist Shadows over Solar Power

笼罩太阳能的保护主义阴影


CAMBRIDGE – As July ended, a settlement was reached in the world’s largest anti-dumping dispute, with China agreeing to a minimum price for the solar panels that it exports to the European Union.

坎布里奇 — — 世界最大的反倾销争端终于于7月底达成和解，中国同意以约定的最低价格向欧盟出口太阳能电池板。


The solution is much less severe than what had been the imminent alternative: EU tariffs on Chinese solar panels were set to rise to 47.6%, as a result of the European Commission’s “finding” that China – whose market share now stands at 80% in Europe – had been “dumping.”

最终的解决方案比曾经迫在眉睫的结果缓和了许多：如果欧盟委员会判定占欧洲市场80%份额的中国“倾销”罪名成立，欧盟对中国太阳能电池板的关税将升至47.6 % 。


Nonetheless, the settlement is a bad outcome for consumers – and for the environment.

但和解对于消费者和环境而言都是不好的结果。


The China-EU dispute parallels a similar one between China and the United States.

中国和欧盟的争端与中美争端非常相似。


Last fall, the US introduced tariffs of 24-36% against Chinese solar-panel imports, after the Commerce Department determined that China had been “dumping” – which is generally defined as selling at a price below cost – into the American market.

去年秋天，在美国商务部认定中国向美国市场“倾销 ” （ 一般定义为以低于成本价销售）罪名成立后，美国对从中国进口的太阳能电池板征收24－36%的关税。


China, citing its own finding of US dumping of polysilicon – a key input in the production of solar panels – into its market, has already retaliated by imposing import tariffs that could exceed 50%.

中国方面则指出美国对华倾销生产太阳能电池板的关键材料多晶硅，并对美进口产品加征超过50%的报复性关税。


The solar-panel disputes may sound narrow and esoteric, but they go to the heart of the long-running debate over globalization.

太阳能电池板争端看似狭隘深奥，但却直指全球化长期争论的核心议题。


Anti-globalization activists’ most powerful argument is that even if free trade is good for economic progress overall, it might undermine important public goods such as environmental protection.

反全球化人士最有力的论据是即使自由贸易从总体上有利于经济增长，但也可能破坏环保等重要公共利益。


Under the well-known “race to the bottom” hypothesis, countries that are open to international trade are thought to adopt weaker environmental regulations than less open countries do.

根据著名的“向下竞争”假说，对国际贸易开放的国家被认为实施了相对宽松的环保法规。


But trade can also have beneficial environmental effects.

但贸易也可能对环境产生有利的影响。


Specialization in each country allows people to obtain more of what they want, which, especially at higher income levels, includes cleaner air and water.

各国分工专业化使人们得到更多想要的东西，特别是当收入水平较高，清洁的空气和水就更符合人们的预期。


When trade brings down costs, it can benefit environmental goods just as much as it benefits other goods.

贸易在降低生产成本的同时，也能够像惠及其他领域那样惠及环境领域。


So, is trade globalization, on balance, better or worse for the environment?

那么，贸易全球化总体而言究竟对环境有害还是有利？


Some empirical studies of cross-country data find net beneficial effects on indicators of environmental degradation like local sulfur-dioxide air pollution.

针对跨国数据的某些实证研究发现贸易全球化对当地二氧化硫空气污染等环境退化指标会产生积极的影响。


Provided that countries have effective governance institutions at the national level, trade and growth give them the means to clean their air.

只要某国在国家一级拥有有效的治理机构，贸易和经济增长会使他们有办法清洁自己的空气。


But the evidence also suggests that trade and growth can exacerbate other forms of environmental degradation, particularly carbon-dioxide emissions, because CO2 is a global externality that cannot be addressed at the national level, owing to the free-rider problem.

但也有证据表明贸易和经济增长会加剧其他形式的环境恶化，尤其是二氧化碳排放，因为搭便车问题的存在，二氧化碳排放这一全球外部效应无法在国家层面解决。


The solar-power industry is a perfect example of how trade can benefit air quality.

太阳能行业是贸易惠及空气质量的绝好实例。


Skeptics of solar power have long argued that its share in electricity generation cannot rise above a few percentage points without massive subsidies, because it is too costly compared to the alternatives.

太阳能怀疑者一直认为因为与替代方案相比成本过高，如果没有大规模补贴，其在发电领域的份额上升不会超过几个百分点。


Proponents, for their part, counter that temporary moderate subsidies would expand the industry, with economies of scale and learning-by-doing then bringing down costs sharply.

太阳能支持者则针锋相对地提出暂时给予适度补贴将扩大行业规模，最终规模经济和经验积累将使成本大幅度降低。


But proponents have focused too much on government subsidies and too little on the contribution of international trade, which in recent years has had a highly positive effect on the development of solar power, as the bonanza of Chinese panels held down costs.

但支持者过于看重政府补贴反而忽略了国际贸易。 国际贸易近年来对太阳能技术的发展产生了非常积极的影响，而中国丰富的电池板资源降低了成本。


The current embrace of protectionism threatens to reverse this progress.

目前的保护主义可能逆转已经取得的进展。


With the loss of cheap solar panels from China, and with subsidies that helped to drive the European industry now reduced for fiscal reasons, the share of solar power in Europe will fall far short of environmentalists’ goals.

没有了来自中国的廉价太阳能电池板，推动欧洲行业发展的补贴又因为财政原因锐减，太阳能在欧洲所占的份额恐怕远远达不到环保主义者的预期。


But “findings” of “dumping” into foreign markets surely warrant some response, no?

但“发现”针对国外市场的“倾销行为”当然需要做出回应，不是吗？


Actually, no.

其实真的不是。


For starters, even those who are generally sympathetic to trade and markets often have the impression that anti-dumping laws target “predatory pricing,” a practice in which a large producer sells below cost in order to drive its competitors into bankruptcy, at which point it can raise the price and reap monopoly profits.

首先，即使是总体上同情贸易市场的人往往也认为反倾销法旨在打击“掠夺性定价 ” ， 该作法是指大厂商以低于成本价销售推动竞争对手破产，之后就可以抬高价格谋取垄断利润。


But that is not even the way anti-dumping laws are usually written, let alone applied.

但反倾销法往往在起草时都没有遵守上述规则，更不用说执行。


Simply put, anti-dumping measures, such as the US and EU tariffs against Chinese solar panels, are a means of reducing, not fostering, competition.

简言之，美欧等对中国太阳能电池板征收关税的反倾销措施是为了遏制，而不是促进竞争。


So, if predatory pricing is not the producers’ motive for selling below cost in these cases, what is?

那么，如果掠夺性定价并不是生产者在上述案例中以低于成本价销售的动机，他们的动机究竟是什么？


The solar-panel industry worldwide – in China, Europe, and the US – is experiencing a glut of productive capacity.

在中、欧、美以及全球范围内，产能过剩的问题正严重困扰着太阳能电池板行业。


As a result, global supply and demand are balanced at a market price that is below the long-term average cost per unit, which includes a share of the cost already incurred in building the factories.

结果造成维持全球供需平衡的市场价低于将建厂成本计算在内的长期平均单位成本。


But that market price is not below the short-term cost of keeping the factories running once they are built.

但上述市场价与工厂建成后维持运营的短期成本相比却并不低。


In other words, producers sell at prices that are “below cost,” because, having already built the factories, they would lose even more money if they charged above the competitive market price or shut down production altogether.

换句话讲，生产企业以“低于成本”的价格销售是因为工厂已经建成，如果他们的收费高于竞争市场价或干脆停止生产，他们损失的成本只能更多。


When the US or EU finds that China is “dumping” solar panels, or when China finds that the US is “dumping” polysilicon, they are using average cost rather than marginal cost.

当美国或欧盟认定中国“倾销”太阳能电池板，或者当中国认定美国“倾销”多晶硅，他们所考虑的仅仅平均而非边际成本。


By this criterion, dumping occurs every time a store has a clearance sale.

按照这一标准，每次商户清仓甩卖都属于倾销行为。


Some have compared the negotiated agreements to limit China’s solar-panel exports to past “voluntary export restraints” (VERs) or “orderly marketing arrangements” in the steel and consumer-electronic industries, especially those that Japan agreed to apply to its exports to the US in the 1980’s.

有人将限制中国太阳能电池板出口已经达成的谈判协议与过去钢铁及消费电子业“自愿出口限制 ” （ Vers）或“有序营销安排 ” ， 特别是20世纪80年代日本承诺用于对美出口的限制和安排进行了对比。


But a more revealing precedent is Japan’s VERs on exports of autos during this period.

但日本在此期间针对汽车业实行自愿出口限制的先例则更有启迪意义。


American automakers had found it increasingly difficult to compete against smaller, more fuel-efficient Japanese imports.

美国汽车制造商与更小更省���的日本进口车抗衡难度越来越大。


When free trade was eventually restored, American wallets and air quality benefited (and the US auto industry was forced to become more efficient).

自由贸易最终恢复时，美国的钱包和空气质量因此而受益（美国汽车业也被迫变得更有效率 ） 。


Free trade in automobiles was good for the environment 30 years ago.

30年前的汽车自由贸易对环境有利。


The same is true of trade in solar equipment today.

如今的太阳能设备也同样如此。


Westerners should thank Chinese panel producers for their contribution to keeping solar power viable, not penalize them through protectionist anti-dumping measures.

西方人应该感谢中国电池板生产商在保持太阳能竞争力中所起的作用，而不是通过贸易保护性质的反倾销措施对他们进行惩罚。


The Russian Godfather

俄罗斯教父


WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin is behaving like a Mafia boss.

华沙—俄罗斯总统普京的行为就像是黑帮老大。


In invading, occupying, and finally annexing Crimea, he pointed Russia’s guns at Ukraine and said: your territorial sovereignty or your life.

在入侵、占领最终吞并克里米亚的过程中，他将俄罗斯的枪口对准乌克兰，说：要领土主权还是要命。


So far, extortion has worked – and Putin knows it.

目前，勒索取得了效果 — — 普京深知这一点。


Indeed, in his speech announcing the annexation of Crimea, Putin spoke his mind: his regime fears no punishment and will do whatever it pleases.

事实上，在他宣布合并克里米亚的演讲中，普京说出了他的想法：他的政权不惧怕任何惩罚，想怎么着就怎么着。


Crimea is just the first step toward realizing his dream of revived Russian greatness.

克里米亚只是恢复俄罗斯荣光的第一步。


His address in the Kremlin was a tissue of lies and manipulation, though a subtle analysis would be a waste of time.

他的克里姆林宫演讲是一层谎言和操纵的面纱，但对此做详细分析只是浪费时间。


The simple fact is that the president of one of the world’s most powerful countries has embarked on a path of confrontation with the entire international community.

简单的事实是，这位世界上最强大国家之一的总统在向全体国际社会选战。


His speech smacked of the fevered, paranoid world of Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s Demons, conjuring as it did a delusional alternative universe – a place that does not exist and has never existed.

他的演讲颇有些陀思妥耶夫斯基的《恶魔 》 （ Demons）中的狂热、偏执的风格，好像他身处一个妄想的平行宇宙中，身处一个并不存在、也从未存在过的世界。


What does Kosovo, where the Albanians suffered persecution and ethnic cleansing, have in common with the situation in Crimea, whose people have never been oppressed by Ukrainians?

科索沃与克里米亚有什么共同点？ 在科索沃，阿尔巴尼亚人遭遇了迫害和种族清洗，而克里米亚人从未遭到过乌克兰人的压迫。


What is the point in displaying open contempt for Ukraine’s government, parliament, and people?

为什么要公然藐视乌克兰政府、议会和人民？


Why label Ukrainian authorities “fascist and anti-Semitic”?

为什么要给乌克兰独裁者贴上“法西斯主义和反犹主义”的标签？


Crimean Tatars pay no heed to the fairy tales about fascists ruling Ukraine; they can still remember the brutal and murderous mass deportations of their parents and grandparents, ordered by Stalin and carried out by the NKVD.

克里米亚鞑靼人根本不关注法西斯主义者统治乌克兰的海外奇谈；他们还记得父辈和祖父辈所遭遇的大规模野蛮凶残的大驱逐，下令的是斯大林，执行的是NKVD。


In Putin’s mind, the whole world has discriminated against Russia for the last three centuries.

在普京看来，过去三百年中世界都看不起俄罗斯。


Russia’s bloody despots – Catherine II, Nicholas I, or Stalin – apparently never discriminated against anyone.

俄罗斯的血腥暴君 — — 叶卡捷琳娜二世、尼古拉斯一世或斯大林 — — 显然从未看不起任何人。


Putin also warns that “you and we – the Russians and the Ukrainians – could lose Crimea completely.”

普京还警告说“你们和我们 — — 俄罗斯人和乌克兰人 — — 可能彻底失去克里米亚。


Yet he fails to specify who – perhaps Poles and Lithuanians again? – are setting their sights on Sevastopol.

”但他没有明确指明是谁 — — 或许又是波兰人和立陶宛人？ — — 在觊觎塞瓦斯托波尔。


Russia could not, according to Putin, leave the people of Crimea “alone in their predicament.”

按普京的说法，俄罗斯不能置克里米亚人“孤独地深陷窘境 ” 。


These words prompt a sad smile; Leonid Brezhnev used precisely the same phrase in August 1968 to justify the Red Army’s intervention in Czechoslovakia to help beleaguered Communist hardliners there crush the Prague Spring reform movement.

这番话令人哭笑不得；1968年8月，勃列日涅夫用完全一样的说辞为红军干预捷克斯洛伐克、帮助四面楚歌的共产主义强硬派镇压布拉格之春改革运动开脱。


“We want Ukraine to be a strong, sovereign, and independent country,” says Putin.

“我们希望乌克兰成为强大、主权和独立的国家 ， ” 普京说。


Stalin said the same thing about Poland in 1945.

斯大林1945年对波兰说过同样的话。


Brave Russian democrats who have not yet been silenced have already remarked on the similarity between Putin’s appeal to ethnic solidarity in annexing Crimea and Hitler’s stance during the Anschluss and the Sudeten crisis in 1938.

没有收声的勇敢的俄罗斯民主派已经指出，普京在吞并克里米亚时所抛出的诉求与希特勒在1938年德奥合并和苏台德危机中的立场并无区别。


This is the real end of history – the history of dreams about a world governed by democratic values and the market economy.

这是真正的历史的终结 — — 由民主价值和市场经济治理世界之梦的历史。


Unless the democratic world understands that now is not the time for faith in diplomatic compromise, and that it must respond strongly enough to stop Putin’s imperial designs, events could follow a logic that is too dreadful to contemplate.

除非民主世界明白现在决非相信外交妥协的时候、必须以足够强硬的立场阻止普京的帝国图谋，否则事件可能朝不可收拾的方向发展。


It takes force to stop a thug, not sharp words or cosmetic sanctions.

要阻止暴徒，必须诉诸武力，靠激烈的言辞和装模作样的制裁是没用的。


I commend and take pride in Poland’s prudent and determined policy and the attitude of its public, which do us great credit.

我赞美并自豪于波兰审慎而果断的政策和波兰人民的态度，这让我们获得了卓著的声誉。


But we must recognize that the best quarter-century in the last 400 years of Polish history is about to end before our very eyes.

但我们必须认识到，波兰过去四百年历史中最好的四分之一世纪就要在我们的眼前结束了。


A time of tectonic shifts has begun.

结构转变的时期开始了。


We must appreciate what we have managed to achieve – and learn to protect it.

我们必须珍视我们已经取得的成就，并学会保护它。


Mafia bosses often meet an unhappy fate, and I do not think that Putin will fare much better in the end.

还帮老大通常结局都不好，我也不认为普京最后会有很好的下场。


Unfortunately, many people are likely to be hurt in the meantime, not least those who now support him.

不幸的是，在此过程中有很多人会受到伤害，不止是现在支持他的哪些人。


Living with Climate Change

与气候变化共存


ROTTERDAM – For anyone still undecided about the consequences of global warming, the summer of 2018, one of the hottest on record, should have tipped the scales.

鹿特丹 — — 对所有仍在观望全球变暖后果的人而言，2018年的夏天，也是有史以来最热的夏天，应该已经倾斜了他们的天平。


Across far-flung longitudes and latitudes, regions are struggling with the fallout from large-scale climate-related events.

在远隔万里的精度和纬度上，各地正在拼命应对大规模气候事件所造成的影响。


In the southern United States, cities and towns pummeled by Hurricane Florence in September were still drying out when Hurricane Michael brought more flooding in October.

在美国南部，那些在9月曾遭到飓风佛罗伦萨袭击的城市和城镇却在10月飓风迈克尔携 更多洪水到来之前几近干涸。


In California, firefighters are battling the embers of the largest wildfire in state history.

在加利福尼亚，消防人员正试图扑灭该州有史以来规模最大的山火余烬。


And in parts of Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia, agricultural output is in freefall following months of stifling heat.

而在拉美、欧洲、非洲和亚洲的部分地区，在经历长达数月的闷热天气后，农产品产量正在出现自由落体般的下滑。


Cooler weather has done little to ease the suffering.

天气逐渐凉爽几乎无法减轻这种痛苦。


According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “moderate” to “exceptional” drought conditions cover 25.1% of the United States.

据美国国家海洋及大气管理局统计 ， “ 中等”直至“异乎寻常”的干旱条件覆盖了25.1%的美国。


But “extreme” and “exceptional” drought – the worst categories – expanded to cover 6.3% of the country, up from 6% in mid-September.

但“极端”和“异乎寻常”的干旱 — — 也就是最糟糕的一类 — — 规模扩大到覆盖该国领土的6.3 % ， 高于9月中旬的6 % 。


Regions in Australia also are struggling with the worst drought in a generation.

澳大利亚许多地区也正在与一代人以来最严重的干旱作斗争。


In fact, for a growing number of people around the world, floods, landslides, and heatwaves – Japan’s summer in a nutshell – is the new normal.

事实上，对遍布世界各地越来越多的民众而言，洪水、山体滑坡和热浪 — — 简而言之就是日本的夏天 — — 已经成为新常态。


A recent study in the journal PLOS Medicine projects a fivefold increase in heat-related deaths in the US by 2080; the outlook for poorer countries is even worse.

公共科学图书馆医学杂志最近一项研究预测，2080年美国与炎热相关的死亡将增长五倍多；贫困国家所面临的前景将更加糟糕。


The climate debate is no longer about causes; fossil fuels and human activity are the culprits.

原因不再是气候辩论的主要目标；罪魁祸首是化石燃料和人类活动。


Rather, the question is how billions of at-risk people and businesses can rapidly adapt and ensure their communities are as resilient as possible.

相反，问题在于数十亿面临风险的民众和企业如何才能迅速适应并确保他们的社区能够尽可能地恢复。


Even if the world meets the Paris climate agreement’s target of limiting the increase in global temperature to 2º Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, adaptation will still be critical, because climate extremes are now the new normal.

就算世界实现巴黎气候协定将全球气温升高限制在比前工业化水平高2℃的目标，因为极端天气现在已经成为新常态，能否适应依然至关重要。


Some communities have already recognized this, and local adaptation is well under way.

有些社区已经认识到这一点，而当地的适应措施正在实施当中。


In Melbourne, Australia, for example, planners are working to double the city’s tree canopy by 2040, an approach that will lower temperatures and reduce heat-related deaths.

例如在澳大利亚的墨尔本，规划人员正在尽一切努力到2040年实现该市树荫量翻倍，这种方法可以降低温度并减少热相关死亡。


Similarly, in Ahmedabad, a city of over seven million people in Western India, authorities have launched a major initiative to cover roofs in reflective paint to lower temperatures on “heat islands,” urban areas that trap the sun’s warmth and make city living unbearable, even at night.

同样，在印度西部人口超过700万的艾哈迈达巴德市，政府发起了一项在屋顶涂刷反光油漆的大规模行动，目的是降低“热岛”温度，这些被称之为热岛的城市区域可以吸收太阳的热量，让城市生活，哪怕是夜间的城市生活都变得无法忍受。


These are just two of the many infrastructural responses that communities around the world have undertaken.

这还仅仅是世界各地社区正在落实的众多基础设施对策中的两项。


But adapting to climate change will also mean managing the long-term economic fallout of extreme weather, and this is a requirement that countries are only beginning to take seriously.

但适应气候变化还将意味着管理极端天气的长期经济影响，而各国才刚刚开始认真对待这样的要求。


Consider water scarcity.

以水资源短缺为例。


According to a 2016 World Bank analysis, drought-related water crises in Africa and the Middle East could reduce GDP in these regions by as much as 6% by 2050.

2016年世界银行分析显示，非洲及中东地区与干旱相关的水资源危机可能会使这些地区的国内生产总值到2050年下降达6 % 。


That would be painful anywhere, but it would be devastating in regions already rife with political turmoil and humanitarian crises.

这在任何地方都足以令人痛苦，但在那些已经饱受政治动荡和人道主义危机折磨的地区，后果将会是灾难性的。


At the same time, rising sea levels will cause severe damage to coastal areas.

与此同时，海平面上升将对沿海地区造成严重的破坏。


The decline in property values will have far-reaching implications not only for individual wealth, but also for the tax bases of communities and the industries that serve them.

不动产价值的下降不仅将对个人财富产生深远的影响，还将拖累社区的税基和为房地产服务的行业的状况。


A related concern is that homes and businesses around the world will eventually become under-insured or even uninsurable, owing to the frequency of weather-related catastrophes.

还有一个相关问题是，因为天气相关灾难的发生频率，世界各地的家庭和企业将最终陷入到保额不足甚至无法保险的窘迫境地当中。


ClimateWise, a global network of insurance industry organizations, has already warned that the world is facing a $100 billion annual climate risk “protection gap”.

ClimateWise是一家全球性的保险业机构网络，它已经警告，世界正在面临每年高达1，000亿美元的气候风险“保护不足 ” 。


No single international organization or authority has all the answers to the cascade of challenges that climate change has triggered.

没有哪一个国际机构或政府能对气候变化所引发的一系列问题全部给出解决方案。


But some are taking key leadership roles and pushing governments and local communities to act with more urgency.

但有人正在扮演关键领导角色，推动政府和当地社区更紧迫地采取行动。


One of the more promising initiatives to accelerate solutions, launched just this week, is the Global Commission on Adaptation, chaired by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, and World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva.

本周刚刚启动的全球适应委员会由前联合国秘书长潘基文、微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨和世界银行首席执行官克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃担任主席，就是一项加速推进应对措施的非常有前途的计划。


Over the next 15 years, the world will need to invest some $90 trillion in infrastructure improvements.

未来15年，世界各地将要投入约90万亿美元用于基础设施改造计划。


How these projects proceed, and whether they are designed with low-carbon features, could lead the world toward a more-climate resilient future – or they could undermine food, water, and security for decades to come.

这些项目如何落地，以及它们是否具备低碳特征，可能引领未来世界更适应气候变化 — — 否则，它们可能在即将到来的几十年中破坏粮食、水和安全赖以存在的基础。


A Daughter of Dictatorship and Democracy

独裁与民主的女儿


SEOUL – It is something of a cliché question in South Korea nowadays: Who would be the country’s next president if the election were held tomorrow, rather than in December 2012?

首尔 — — 如果选举提前到明天，而不是2012年12月进行，谁将成为下一任国家总统已经成为韩国老生常谈的话题。


Numerous opinion polls show Park Geun-hye of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) to be the leading candidate.

不止一项民调显示执政大国家党候选人朴槿惠最有希望胜出。


If elected, she would be South Korea’s first woman president, and, for her rivals, her dominant position in the race is an uncomfortable but unassailable fact.

如果成功当选，她将成为韩国首任女性总统，而且在她的对手看来，她在竞选中的优势地位虽然令人不快，但又不容置疑。


South Korean voters of all ages and regions have welcomed Park as a candidate for their country’s leadership.

韩国各地各年龄段的选民都欢迎朴槿惠参选总统。


Her political style is both refreshing and relevant, because she comes across as sincere and forthright at a time when the public is hungry for moral leadership.

她的政治风格既有价值又令人耳目一新，因为在公众渴望道德领袖的今天她给人留下了真诚坦荡的印象。


And she has an astonishing talent for simplifying complicated issues accurately, which she likely learned – along with how to interpret and manipulate the political connotations of every issue – from her father, former President Park Chung-hee.

而且她在准确简化复杂问题方面拥有惊人的天赋，她的这种天赋和解读控制所有问题政治内涵的能力极有可能来自前总统朴正熙，也就是她的父亲。


Acclaimed as a national hero among radical right-wingers, the iron-fisted Park Chung-hee ruled South Korea from 1963 to 1979, in the wake of the 1961 military coup, only to be assassinated by his intelligence chief.

1961年军事政变后，当时在右翼激进份子中被奉为民族英雄的铁腕总统朴正熙从1963到1979年被情报机构负责人暗杀前一直统治韩国。


His daughter is proud of his legacy, which marked the beginning of South Korea’s economic boom.

他的女儿为父亲取得的成就感到骄傲，在他执政期间恰好是韩国经济繁荣的开始。


Indeed, as a pillar of export-oriented modernity, Park Chung-hee was once lionized as the archetype of a modernizing political leadership in military-authoritarian states.

事实上，作为出口导向型现代化的中流砥柱，朴正熙一度被奉为军事独裁国家现代化政治领袖的典型。


At home, he still ranks first in popularity among the country’s heads of state, kindling nostalgia like a popular old record – a corollary to people’s frustration and anger at the current government of President Lee Myung-bak.

他在韩国国内的受欢迎的程度依然在国家首脑中名列前茅，就像流行老唱片那样点燃怀旧的火种 — — 这也是人们对总统李明博领导的现任政府感到无奈和愤怒的必然结果。


Park, who lost her first bid for the GNP’s nomination to Lee in 2007, needs to ensure that no rupture with her erstwhile rival knocks her off the path to victory in 2012.

朴槿惠2007年在大国家党内部首轮候选人竞争中负于李明博，而她今天的当务之急是确保与昔日对手的决裂不会影响她在2012年的竞选中胜出。


An astute politician, Park did not hesitate to campaign wholeheartedly for Lee the last time around – a move that, as part of long-term political strategy, made perfect sense.

作为精明的政治家，朴槿惠上次失利后毫不犹豫地全力为李明博助选 — — 这样的举动作为长期政治策略的组成部分是很有意义的。


To many South Koreans, the election is now Park’s to lose.

在许多韩国人看来，总统竞选已经是朴的囊中之物。


No candidate on the horizon seems able to stop her.

似乎没有哪位候选人能够阻挡她成功的步伐。


If she wins, it will be the result of her seriousness and tenacity, not her political heritage.

如果当选，她制胜的法宝将会是严肃和韧性，而不是政治承袭。


No one in South Korea’s conservative movement doubts that Park is one of them.

韩国保守运动的任何人都不怀疑朴是他们当中的一份子。


And, as an icon of the right, she is well aware that she cannot afford to betray her status.

作为右翼势力的标志性人物，她比谁都清楚她不能背叛自己的位置。


Despite her charisma, Park is neither a Sarah Palin nor an Eva Peron.

尽管拥有超凡的个人魅力，但朴既不同于萨拉·佩林也不同于伊娃·裴隆。


Indeed, she looks more like a Korean Margaret Thatcher – a lady not for turning, in Thatcher’s famous phrase, and with clearly thought-through political principles animating her actions.

事实上，她更像是韩国的玛格丽特·撒切尔 — — 按照撒切尔的那句名言，一位不会转弯的女士。 深思熟虑的政治准则为她的一举一动注入活力。


In any case, she seems destined to establish a new South Korea focusing on her landmark pledge ‘jul pu se,’ literally meaning ‘reduce-loosen-strengthen tax-cuts,’ deregulation, and law and order, not just to add another chapter to her father’s old book.

无论如何，她似乎注定要促成韩国关注她里程碑式的‘jul pu se’承诺，其字面意思是‘减税 ’ 、 放松管制、重建法律秩序，而不单纯是延续其父辈的传统。


Her administration would mark a fresh departure from the country’s troubled recent past.

以她为首的政府将首次摆脱韩国近年来问题重重的过去。


Left-leaning pundits claim that the dictator’s daughter has the same autocratic vision as her father, though Park invariably prefers incremental change to radical measures, and cut her political teeth in the tough-minded politics of the GNP.

尽管较之极端措施朴始终更偏好渐进式的变化并成功改变了大国家党顽固不化的政治意志，左倾学者依然声称独裁总统的女儿与其父有着同样的专制目标。


Others take a flagrantly sexist stance, arguing that a woman president would be a non-starter as long as the North Korean regime continues to threaten national security.

也有人明目张胆地采取性别歧视立场，声称只要北朝鲜政权继续威胁国家安全，女性总统就不可能取得成功。


Although these criticisms don’t seem to bother the electorate very much, Park’s path to victory may yet prove narrower than her supporters expect.

尽管这些批评似乎对选民影响不大，但朴的胜利之路可能并没有其支持者所想像的那般宽阔。


She has been called the “Queen of Elections,” in particular since she won a campaign in 2006 after being slashed with a box cutter by a deranged man.

2006年被一个疯子用美工刀砍伤后仍然赢得竞选为朴槿惠赢得了“选举皇后”的美誉。


But she must convincingly outline practical strategies to resolve South Korea’s most serious problems, including high unemployment, worsening educational performance, and North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

但她必须拿出解决韩国最严重问题的令人信服的实际策略，包括高失业率、教育质量下降和北朝鲜的核武器问题。


Ms. Park once pledged to provide loans for working-class families from elementary school to college years, while contending that local universities should be empowered to have more autonomy.

朴女士曾承诺为工薪家庭提供从小学到大学的贷款，同时提出地方大学应拥有更多自主权力。


She favors engagement policy and the six-party talks so as to resolve the nuclear troubles.

她倾向于通过接触政策和六方会谈解决核问题。


Come presidential election-day in 2012, South Korean voters will pick the candidate who embodies pragmatism and centrism over a partisan or ideologue.

2012年总统大选日到来时，韩国选民会把���投向务实温和的竞选者，而不是党派界线分明的空想家。


Park’s success will depend, in the end, on the effectiveness of her campaign in further defining her character along those lines.

朴槿惠的成功终将取决于其竞选活动能否有效地凸显她在上述方面的特色。


Unlike former Peruvian dictator Alberto Fujimori’s daughter, who lost her presidential bid in Peru last month, Park is likely to defy her family’s tragic history.

与上个月在秘鲁竞选中落败的前秘鲁独裁者阿尔贝托·藤森的女儿不同，朴槿惠可能改变其家族悲剧性的历史。


If she does, she will be Asia’s most powerful woman, perhaps the most powerful in the world, at the end of next year.

如果真是这样，她将在明年年底成为亚洲、也许是全世界最有权力的女性。


A Day for Planetary Justice

一个追求地球正义的日子


PRINCETON – What we are doing to our planet, to our children and grandchildren, and to the poor, by our heedless production of greenhouse gases, is one of the great moral wrongs of our age.

发自普林斯顿 — — 我们现在对地球，对我们的子孙后代以及穷人的所作所为 — — 肆无忌惮地制造温室气体 — — 是我们这一代人所犯下的最大的道德过失。


On October 24, you can stand up against this injustice.

但在10月24日这天，你可以对这种不公正的现象说一声“不 ” 。


October 24 is 350 Day.

10月24日就是所谓的“350日 ” 。


The name comes from the number of parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that, according to Jim Hansen, perhaps the world’s leading climate scientist, we should not exceed if we are to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change.

而这个名字则源自于大气中每百万份之350的二氧化碳含量值，照全世界最杰出的气候科学家吉姆·汉森所说，如果我们要避免遭遇潜在大规模气候变化的话，那么大气中的二氧化碳含量就不能超出这个数。


It is a measure of the seriousness of our problem that CO2 is already at 386 ppm, and is rising by two ppm each year.

而这一测量手段也同时凸显了当前问题的严峻性，因为目前二氧化碳含量已经达到了386ppm，并以每年2ppm的速度在不断增长。


The need to cut greenhouse gases has become increasingly clear as predictions of global warming – denounced as “alarmist” when they were first made just a few years ago – have repeatedly turned out to have been too conservative.

随着对全球变暖的预言 — — 在几年前还被讥为“杞人忧天”的论调 — — 的反复出现并变得极富争议性，削减温室气体排放的必要性也逐渐变得清晰起来。


We are approaching a point of no return, at which feedback loops will kick in and continue to warm the planet, no matter what we do.

而我们正在走进一个死胡同，不论做出何种努力，这场恶性循环都将持续下去并使地球暖化。


The melting of arctic ice is one example.

北极冰层的融化就是一个例子。


Four hundred years ago, explorers sought the legendary “Northeast Passage” across the north of Europe and Russia to China.

在400年前，探险先驱们试图找到一条从北欧/俄罗斯方向通往中国的“东北航道 ” 。


They found the arctic ice impenetrable, and soon gave up their quest.

但他们在发现北极冰层难以被贯穿之后放弃了这一尝试。


This year, commercial vessels successfully navigated the Northeast Passage.

而就在今年，商船却成功打通了这条“东北航道 ” 。


That is one of many recent dramatic signs that our climate is changing and that our planet is warmer than it has been for a very long time.

这个例子只是那些引人注目现象的其中之一，证明我们的气候正在改变而地球也比过去一个长时期变得更暖了。


But ice-free arctic waters are more than a symptom of global warming. They are themselves a cause of further warming: ice and snow reflect the sun’s rays.

但再无冰块漂浮的北冰洋并不仅仅是全球暖化的表象，它们也将是进一步暖化的成因：须知冰和雪都是可以反射太阳光线的。


An ice-free surface absorbs more warmth from the sun than one covered in snow or ice.  In other words, our greenhouse gas emissions have, by causing enough warming to melt the arctic ice, created a feedback loop that will generate more warming, and melt more ice, even if we were to stop emitting all greenhouse gases tomorrow.

一块没有冰雪覆盖的土地将吸收更多的太阳热能。 换句话说，我们的温室气体排放通过制造足以融化北极冰层的热量，反过来又制造了一个产生更多热量的循环并随之融化更多的冰层，而即便我们能在明天就完全杜绝温室气体排放，这个循环将依然继续运作下去。


Other feedback loops pose a similar danger.

而另一个循环则昭示了类似的危险。


In Siberia, vast quantities of methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas, are locked up in what used to be called “permafrost” – regions in which it was assumed that the ground was permanently frozen.

在塞尔维亚，大量的沼气（一种对温室效应影响极大的气体）都被封存在曾被称为“永久冻土”的地区，因为人们相信这些地区的土地都将永久处于封冻状态。


But areas that used to be frozen are now thawing, releasing methane and thus contributing to further warming – and to further thawing, which releases more methane.

但如今这些土地开始解冻并释放出沼气，并因此而导致进一步暖化 — — 以及进一步解冻和更多沼气的释放。


Developing nations are grasping just how outrageous the current distribution of greenhouse-gas emissions really is.

发展中国家都意识到了当前温室气体排放量分配方案的不合理之处。


At the United Nations Summit on Climate Change in September, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda pointed out that, while developed nations outside Africa are almost entirely responsible for the problem, its greatest impact will probably be on Africa, which has few resources to cope with the challenge.

在9月的联合国气候变化峰会上，卢旺达总统保罗·卡加梅就指出说，当非洲以外的发达国家必须为问题负上全部责任之时，气候变化最大的受害者却可能是非洲国家，而这些国家也缺乏足够的资��去应对这些问题。


Kagame then suggested giving every country an annual per capita quota for CO2 emissions, and allowing developing countries that are below the quota to trade their excess quota with countries that are above theirs.

卡加梅因此建议给各国家都订立一个年人均二氧化碳排放额，并允许那些排放低于限额的国家将排放量出售给那些超出限额的国家。


The money that developing countries would receive for this would not be aid, but rather a recognition that the rich nations must pay for something that in the past they simply appropriated: far more than their fair share of our atmosphere’s capacity to absorb our waste gases.

这些交易所得的资金不是援助，而是富国为过去看上去理所当然的一些行为所必须付出的代价：这要远远多于那些富国在我们大气废气吸收能力中所占的合理份额。


Sri Lanka took a similar stance, using studies from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to calculate that in 2008, environmentally permissible carbon emissions totaled no more than 2,172 kilograms per person.

斯里兰卡也采取了同样的立场，依照联合国气候变化跨部门小组在2008年的统计，环境许可的碳排放不得高于每人2172公斤。


In fact, the world’s per capita emissions were 4,700 kilograms, or more than double the permissible limit.

但事实上目前世界人均排放量已经高达4700公斤，是允许排放量的二倍有余。


But, while emissions in the rich nations were far above the permissible limit, Sri Lankan emissions were, at 660 kilograms, well below it.

然而当富国的排放量远远超出限额之时，斯里兰卡的人均排放量却只有极低的660公斤。


As Sri Lanka’s government pointed out, “That means low-emitting countries like us could not emit more because our space has already been exploited by developed or global heavy polluting countries without our consent.”

正如斯里兰卡政府所指出的那样 ： “ 这意味着我们这些低排放国家已经不能进行更多的排放，因为我们所处的空间已经在毫不知情的情况下被发达国家和全球污染排放大国所占据了。 ”


This situation is an injustice of vast proportions, reminiscent of – and arguably much worse than – the now-repudiated colonialism of the Western powers in the nineteenth century.

这种大范围的不公正不禁使人联想起如今遭到批判的西方列强的19世纪殖民主义行为 — — 甚至可能危害更甚。


The task of remedying it must begin at the meeting on climate change that will be held in Copenhagen in December.

而对此的纠正措施必须在12月的哥本哈根气候会议上贯彻展开。


Many political leaders have expressed support for strong action on climate change, but what most of them regard as “strong action” will not be enough to get us back below 350 ppm.

虽然许多政治家都赞成对气候变化采取强力行动，但其中大多数人所认为的“强力行动”并不足以把我们带回到350ppm的大气二氧化碳含量水平。


In some countries, including the United States, there are major political obstacles to taking even modest steps.

而在包括美国在内的一些国家，即使想要采取更为温和的措施都要面对巨大的政治阻力。


On October 24, people in nearly every country will be taking action to raise awareness of the need for an international treaty to bring our atmosphere back to 350 ppm of CO2.

在10月24日这天，几乎所有国家的人们都将采取行动，激发起对一项能带领人们重回350ppm的国际条约的必要性认识。


There will be climbers hanging banners high in the Himalayas, where the glaciers are melting, and scuba divers at Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, which is threatened by climate change.

登山者将在冰川逐渐融化的喜马拉雅山上拉起横幅标语，而在遭到气候变化威胁的澳大利亚大堡礁，潜水员们也将有所宣示。


Churches will ring bells 350 times, 350 cyclists will circle towns, and, in many places, 350 trees will be planted.

教堂将鸣钟350响，350名单车手将绕城骑行，而在许多地方将有350棵树的植树仪式。


At www.350.org you can find out what is happening near you and join in, or put your own idea online.

通过www.350.org这个网站你可以查询到你附近人们的活动方案并参与其中，还可以在网上发表自己的点子。


But don’t just sit back and hope that others will do enough to make an impact.

但不要选择袖手旁观，期待他人去完成一切。


One day your grandchildren will ask you: what did you do to meet the greatest moral challenge of your time?

因为有一天你的孙子们会问 ： “ 当面对你那个年代最艰巨的道德挑战时，你都做了些什么？ ”


A Day of Liberation

解放日


When I was seven years old, in 1960, my grandmother Angelica opened my eyes to the meaning of 8 May 1945, the day when Nazi Germany surrendered and World War II ended in Europe.

在我七岁那一年，就是1960年，我的祖母安朱丽卡让我明白了1945年5月8日的意义：那一天纳粹德国投降，二战在欧洲结束。


We were spending our summer holidays in Normandy where the liberation of Europe from Nazism had started on D-Day, 6 June 1944.

当时我们正在诺曼底度暑假。 在那里，欧洲挣脱纳粹统治的纪念日是从1944年6月6日盟国登陆西欧那一天算起的。


One evening, I listened to my parents and my grandmother talking about the past.

一天傍晚，我听到父母和祖母在谈论过去。


I have forgotten the details of their conversation, but I can still hear my grandmother’s sigh of relief when she said “Thank God we lost that war!”

我已不记得谈话的细节，但是耳边始终回响着当时祖母长舒了一口气说的那句话 ： “ 感谢上帝，我们输了那场战争。 ”


From a child’s perspective, it wasn’t self-evident that losing was a good thing.

从一个孩子的角度看，把失败当成一件好事确实不容易理解。


But of course, my grandmother was right to equate defeat with liberation.

但无疑，祖母把失败和解放等同起来是正确的。


The more I have thought about the lesson she taught me 45 years ago, the clearer I have seen another, less obvious dimension in what she said: It is “we” who lost the war.

我对她45年前教给我的这一课思考的越多，就越能看清楚另外一个不太显露的层面：是“我们”输了这场战争。


Collectively, the Germans had not been the innocent victims of a small gang of criminal outsiders called “Nazis” – Nazism had been an inside ideology supported by millions of Germans, and every German was liable for its atrocities whether or not he or she had adhered to it individually.

作为一个民族来讲，德国人并不只是那一小撮被叫作“纳粹”的罪恶并注定会失败的人的无辜牺牲品。 “纳粹主义”是无数德国人内心根深蒂固的理念，每一个德国人都应对德国的残暴行为负责任，反思自己是否曾经固守过这一理念。


In today’s Germany, an overwhelming majority subscribes to the proposition that 8 May 1945 was a day of liberation – not only for Europe, but also for Germany itself.

今天的德国，绝大多数人赞成：不仅对于欧洲，对德国自身来讲， 1945年5月8日也是一个解放日。


Compared to public opinion in 1960, that’s certainly an enormous progress.

相对1960年的公众看法而言，这当然是个巨大的进步。


But paradoxically, it may also contain an element of forgetfulness, because it tends to conceal the fact that liberation required a military defeat.

但自相矛盾的地方在于， 这其中可能包含了一种叫作“健忘”的因素，因为它往往掩藏了一个事实：有解放就必然有军事上的胜利。


To use my grandmother’s parlance, it is not “us” who were the liberators, but “them”.

引用我祖母的说法，解放者并不是“我们 ” ， 而是“他们 ” 。


The way people see the past tells us more about their present attitudes than about the past itself.

人们看待过去的方式更多的告诉我们他们现在所持的态度，而不是过去本身。


This is what the term “politics of memory” is meant to indicate. And this is why it doesn’t matter whether the relevant events happened 60 years ago (as World War II), 90 years (as in the case of the Armenian genocide) or even 600 years (such as the battle of Kosovo in 1389).

这就是“记忆的政治”这个术语的所指；这也是为什么说相关事件是发生在60年前（二战 ） ， 90年前（亚美尼亚大屠杀 ） ， 还是600年前（比如1389年科索沃战争）都不是很要紧的原因。


A violent conflict in the past may survive as a war of memories in the present, as can be observed in the current dispute between China and South Korea on one side, and Japan on the other.

过去的暴力冲突可能在今天，作为记忆中的战争，继续存活下去。 正如我们看到现在发生在中国、韩国和日本之间的冲突。


A war of memories, in turn, may sometimes lead to a violent conflict in the future.

记忆中的战争，可能因此引发未来的暴力冲突。


Former perpetrators often try to de-legitimize their former victims’ moral superiority by claiming they were victims themselves.

从前的罪人时常企图通过声明他们自己也是牺牲品来否定真正受害者那更优越的道德取向。


Therefore, the 60th anniversary of the firebombing of Dresden by Allied forces on 13 February 1945 has probably been a more crucial moment in terms of the German “politics of memory” than the 60th anniversary of 8 May 1945 is going to be.

因此，就“记忆的政治”这个词来说，1945年2月13日这个盟军向德累斯顿开火的第60个纪念日，相对于1945年5月8日这个第60个纪念日，便可能是一个更关键性的时刻。


Far-right groups infamously dubbed the attack by which at least 30,000 people were killed “Dresden’s Holocaust of bombs.”

极右势力卑鄙的导演了“德累斯顿大屠杀 ” ， 在侵袭中至少三万人被杀害。


Fortunately, their propaganda campaign has been a failure.

幸运的是，他们的宣传活动以失败告终。


Although it is true that thousands of the civilians killed in Dresden and other German cities were innocent at an individual level, there can be no doubt it was morally imperative that Germany be defeated collectively.

虽然成千上万在德累斯顿和德国其它城市被杀害的德国平民作为个体确是无辜的，但从道义上讲，毫无疑问德国应该作为一个民族被挫败。


On the left side of the German political spectrum, the proposition that 8 May 1945 was a day of liberation remains unchallenged.

在德国政坛的左派当中，关于把1945年5月8日看成解放日这一提法向来毋庸置疑。


However, it is sometimes repressed that the massive use of force had been necessary to achieve that result.

然而，取得这一结果必须大规模使用武力，这一事实却时而被压置。


Left-wing pacifism tends to overlook this simple fact.

左翼和平主义往往忽略这个清楚的事实。


Its slogan “Never again war!” is only half the truth – the other half is “Never again appeasement!” 8 May 1945 was not “zero hour,” as a popular saying in Germany goes.

它的口号“再也不要战争！ ”只是真相的一部分，另一部分是“再也不要绥靖！


It had an antecedent, that is, a lack of pre-emptive resistance at home and abroad to the threat that built up in Nazi Germany during the 1930’s.

” 。 1945年5月8日并不是德国流行说法所提及的“零时 ” ， 因为已经有先例，那就是：缺乏对20世纪30年代纳粹德国国内外威胁的“先发制人”的抵制。


There is yet another lesson to be learned.

还有一个教训要吸取。


Yes, 8 May 1945 was a day of liberation to which the Soviet army contributed decisively.

是的，1945年5月8日是苏军起到绝对性贡献作用的一个解放日。


But for millions of Central and East Europeans, liberation was followed by Stalin’s oppressive regime.

但对于数以百万计的中欧和东欧人民来说，解放后，随之而来的是斯大林的高压统治。


The current war of memories between the Baltic republics and Russia, with regard to the international celebration in Moscow on 9 May this year, reminds Germany of a special historic responsibility.

如今对波罗的海共和国与俄罗斯之间战争的记忆，是今年5月9日在莫斯科举行的国际庆典的主题，这让德国意识要负一个特殊的历史责任。


The German-Soviet non-aggression treaty, the so-called Hitler-Stalin pact, concluded in August 1939, had been supplemented by a secret appendix dividing the border states Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania into spheres of interest for the two parties.

德苏之间的“互不侵犯”条约，即中止于1939年8月的所谓“希特勒－斯大林”协定，曾经作过修订，追加的是一个秘密附录 ― ― 关于如何把边境国家：芬兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、波兰和罗马尼亚划分到这两大势力国的利益范围。


But excusing Nazi atrocities by pointing to Stalinist crimes is an intellectually and morally unacceptable stratagem.

但是企图把矛头转向斯大林的罪行来为纳粹暴行辩护，无论在知性还是道义上都说不过去。


When Chancellor Schröder travels to Moscow for the Red Square celebrations, he should bear in mind Nazi Germany’s contribution to the Baltic tragedy.

当施罗德总理来到莫斯科红场参加庆祝仪式的时候，他应该反思的是德国要为波罗的海诸国的悲剧承担多少责任。


On 8 May this year, public speakers will remind us how important it is not to forget.

今年5月8日，公众的声音会提醒我们“不能忘记”有多重要。


They will stress that if the lessons of history are not learned, history is bound to repeat itself.

他们会强调如果不吸取历史教训，历史就必然会重演。


All this is perfectly true.

这些都是完全正确的。


But personally, I will also remember my grandmother’s sentence “Thank God we lost that war!”

但是，作为个人来讲，我还要记住我祖母的那句话 ： “ 感谢上帝，我们输了这场战争。


Thank God – and thanks to all those brave Allied soldiers who sacrificed their lives for the sake of Europe’s liberty.

”感谢上帝，还要感谢为保卫欧洲自由而牺牲了自己生命的所有盟军战士。


Crashing the SDR

撕开SDR之口


SANTA BARBARA – The Chinese government’s campaign to have its currency, the renminbi, included in the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset appears to be on the brink of success.

圣芭芭拉—中国政府让人民币进入国际货币基金组织（IMF）储备资产的努力眼看就要成功了。


Last week, IMF staff formally recommended adding the renminbi to the basket of currencies that determines the value of its so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).

上周，IMF正是建议将人民币加入决定其所谓的特别提款权（SDR）价值的货币篮子中。


The addition of the renminbi to the basket, which currently includes the US dollar, the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen, would provide China with a boost to its prestige.

SDR篮子目前包括美元、欧元、英镑和日元，将人民币加入其中将让中国获得提高其声望的机会。


More important, it would advance the government’s efforts to internationalize the renminbi.

更重要的是，这有利于中国政府的人民币国际化政策。


But it would also be a mistake.

但这也是一个错误。


The decision to recommend the renminbi’s inclusion, far from having been made on sound economic grounds, can only be understood as political.

建议纳入人民币并没有可靠的经济理由，只能视之为政治动作。


As such, the long-term consequences are likely to be regrettable.

而这样的动作可能带来令人遗憾的长期后果。


On a purely technical basis, the renminbi’s qualifications for inclusion in the SDR basket are questionable.

从纯理论角度，人民币是否有资格纳入SDR篮子颇为可疑。


Traditionally, the IMF has insisted on two criteria: a currency’s issuing country must be among the world’s leading exporters, and the currency must be “freely usable” – widely used and traded.

传统上，IMF要求两个标准：货币发行国必须是世界领先的出口国；并且该货币必须“可自由使用 ” — —即被广泛使用和交易。


As the world’s largest exporter, China clearly meets the first condition.

作为世界最大出口国，中国显然满足第一个条件。


The second, however, is probably still beyond its reach.

但是，第二个条件仍无法满足。


The renminbi is by no means in the same league as the SDR basket’s four incumbent currencies.

人民币仍无法与SDR篮子中现有的四种货币等量齐观。


In 2014, China’s currency ranked seventh in global central-bank reserves, eighth in international bond issuance, and 11th in global currency trading.

2014年，人民币在全球央行储备中名列第七，国际债券发行量名列第八，国际货币交易量名列第十一。


Moreover, the renminbi remains non-convertible for most capital transactions, China’s financial markets are primitive, and trading margins for the exchange rate are still set daily by the monetary authorities.

此外，人民币对于大部分资本交易而言仍不可兑换，中国金融市场也较为原始，人民币汇率的交易波动幅度仍由货币当局每日制定。


Indeed, as recently as August, the IMF was skeptical about adding the renminbi to the SDR basket, saying that “significant work” was still needed, and suggesting that a decision should be put off until 2016 in order to ensure a “smooth” transition.

事实上，直到今年8月，IMF对于是否将人民加入SDR持怀疑态度，认为仍需要“大量工作 ” ， 并建议将这一决定推迟到2016年，以确保“平稳”过渡。


So why did the IMF flip?

那么，IMF的态度为何发生了转变？


The answer is obvious: China mounted a full-court press to change minds.

答案显而易见：中国步步紧逼，迫使其改变态度。


In August, the currency’s exchange-rate regime was loosened slightly.

8月份，人民币汇率机制略有放松。


Renminbi-denominated government bonds were issued in London, and plans were laid to create new trading platforms for the currency in several European financial centers.

伦敦发行人民币计价政府债券，欧洲几大金融中心也纷纷提出建立新的人民币交易平台的计划。


And Chinese policymakers made it abundantly clear how unhappy they would be with a negative decision.

中国决策者清楚地向世界表明，做出对其不利的决定将让他们十分不快。


Their pressure paid off.

他们的压力起到了成效。


One by one, Western governments fell in line behind the renminbi, despite its practical limitations.

西方政府纷纷加入了人民币阵营，尽管其实用性存在诸多限制。


The Fund got the message, and now the fix is in.

IMF收到了这一信息，现在做出了回应。


The recommendation to enlarge the SDR basket has been warmly backed by Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, and a final decision by the Fund’s executive board is expected at the end of the month.

扩大SDR篮子的建议受到了IMF总裁克里斯汀·拉加德的大力支持，预计IMF执委会将在本月底做出最终决定。


Many would argue that this is a positive development.

许多人会说，这是一个积极的发展趋势。


Certainly, it mollifies China’s leaders, offering them a stronger incentive to continue to work within the existing international monetary regime.

显然，这能够安抚中国领导人，让他们有更大的激励继续在现有国际货币机制之内行动。


Recent Chinese initiatives, especially the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, have given rise to fears that the country intends to build a new set of international institutions to compete with Western-dominated organizations like the IMF.

中国最近的各种行动，特别是成立亚洲基础设施投资银行，让人们担心它意在建立一套新的国际机构与西方主导的IMF等组织抗衡。


The decision to add the renminbi to the SDR basket may have put that danger into remission.

将人民纳入SDR篮子的决定将减轻这一危险。


On the other hand, the move sets a worrying precedent, injecting politics into a policy area that had been governed by objective economic considerations.

另一方面，这一决定开启了令人但有的先例，让政治染指了一个此前完全由客观经济考量决定的政策领域。


Conceivably, over the longer term, China’s successful campaign could now open the door to lobbying by other governments to include their currencies as well.

可以想象，从长期看，中国成功让人民币加入SDR篮子也开启了其他政府让本国货币加入SDR篮子的游说大门。


Why not add the Swiss franc or the Canadian dollar?

为什么不加入瑞士法郎或加拿大元？


Or, for that matter, why not include the Russian ruble or Indian rupee?

或者，出于同样的理由，为什么不加入俄罗斯卢布或印度卢比？


What was once the dignified preserve of obviously elite currencies could become the site of messy political battles for elevated status.

曾经高高在上的公认精英货币俱乐部，现在成了提升地位的政治乱斗场。


Of course, it can be argued that China’s recent economic trajectory means that it is only a matter of time before the renminbi does become a match for the SDR’s incumbents.

当然，你可能会说，近期中国经济运行轨迹表明人民币名正言顺成为SDR成员只是时间问题。


After all, international use of the currency has been growing exponentially.

毕竟，对人民币的国际化使用呈现出指数增长之势。


But that optimistic assessment overestimates the renminbi’s prospects and illustrates the danger of linear extrapolation of the past into the future.

但这一乐观评估高估了人民币的前景，正好说明了用过去线性推断未来的危险。


Likewise, use of the renminbi for the purpose of invoicing and settling trade with China is bound to continue growing.

类似地，出于开发票以及结算对华贸易目的使用人民币的情况必定会继续增加。


But in terms of the all-important roles of a currency as an investment vehicle or reserve asset, the outlook for the renminbi is much less promising, owing to China’s still-tight capital controls and low level of financial development.

但对于货币最重要的作用 — — 投资载体或储备资产而言，人民币的前景并不那么美妙，因为中国资本管制仍然十分严格，金融发展水平也较低。


Nor is inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket likely to provide as big a boost to the currency’s internationalization as many believe.

加入SDR篮子是否能给人民币国际化带来巨大的提振也不像许多人认为的那样确定。


Some central banks may decide to follow suit, adding renminbi-denominated assets to their reserves to match the composition of the basket.

一些央行也许会跟进，将人民币计价资产纳入其储备，以匹配SDR货币篮的组成。


But the increase will be marginal at best – some $40 billion in the next few years, according to the IMF’s calculations.

但这一增量很小 — — 据IMF估计，未来几年也许只有400亿美元。


With global reserves now totaling more than $10 trillion, that is a mere drop in the proverbial bucket.

目前全球储备总量为10万亿美元以上，400亿只是九牛一毛。


The political reasons for including the renminbi in the SDR are all too clear.

将人民币纳入SDR的政治原因一清二楚。


Unfortunately, the risks of doing so are no less obvious.

不幸的是，这样做的风险并不那么一清二楚。


A Defeat for International Tax Cooperation

国际税收合作的挫折


NEW YORK – Most of the world’s governments – eager to mobilize more tax revenues to finance development and curb pervasive tax-avoidance schemes, such as those revealed in the so-called Luxembourg Leaks scandal last year – have an interest in collaborating on taxation matters.

纽约—全球大部分政府急于动员更多的税收收入为发展融资以及遏制无处不在的避税机制（比如去年所谓的卢森堡泄密所揭示的 ） ， 在税收问题上展开合作符合它们的利益。


Yet at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development, held in Addis Ababa last month, the momentum toward strengthening international tax cooperation came to an abrupt halt.

但在上个月在亚的斯亚贝巴举行的第三届国际发展融资会议（International Conference on Financing for Development）上，强化国际税收合作的势头突然停止了。


Developed countries blocked a proposal at the conference to establish an intergovernmental tax body within the United Nations to replace the current UN Committee of Experts.

发达国家在会上阻止了在联合国内部成立跨政府税收机构取代目前的联合国转接委员会的方案。


These countries insist that tax cooperation should take place exclusively under the leadership of the OECD, a body that they control.

这些国家坚持税收合作只能在它们所控制经合组织的领导下进行。


The rest of the world should hope this will prove to be a pause rather than an end to progress on international tax cooperation, which began 13 years ago, at the first International Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey, Mexico.

其他国家应该希望这只是国际税收合作的暂时停止而非终结。 国际税收合作始于13年前墨西哥蒙特雷首届国际发展融资会议。


Two years later, in 2004, the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) upgraded its “ad hoc group” of tax experts to a regular committee.

两年后，2004年，联合国经济与社会委员会（ECOSOC）将其税收专家“临时小组”升级为常设委员会。


This meant that the experts would meet regularly and have an expanded mandate that went beyond merely updating a model double-taxation treaty.

这意味着专家们将定期召开会议，其权限也将得到扩展，而不仅仅是更新双税条约（double-taxation treaty）样板。


Four years later, at the Second Conference on Financing for Development, in Doha, Qatar, policymakers acknowledged that more needed to be done in tax matters, and asked ECOSOC to consider strengthening institutional arrangements.

四年后，在卡塔尔多哈举行的第二届发展融资会议上，决策者承认在税收���题上做得不够，并要求ECOSOC考虑加强制度安排。


And then, in the year leading up to the Addis Ababa conference, the UN Secretary-General endorsed the need for “an intergovernmental committee on tax cooperation, under the auspices of the United Nations.”

接着，在亚的斯亚贝巴会议前一年，联合国秘书长表示支持有必要建立“联合国框架下的跨政府税收合作委员会 ” 。


His endorsement, along with strong support from nongovernmental organizations and the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation, gave greater force to the demand by developing countries, organized around the Group of 77 and China, for an equal voice in setting global tax norms.

秘书长的支持，以及来自非政府组织和国际公司税改独立革委员会（Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation）的强烈支持让发展中国家的要求更加有力。 在77国集团和中国的组织下，发展中国家要求在制定全球税收规范中获得平等的发言权。


Up until the 11th hour of negotiations in Addis Ababa, they stood firm in calling for an intergovernmental body with the mandate and resources to create a coherent global framework for international tax cooperation.

直到亚的斯亚贝巴谈判的第11个小时，它们都坚决要求通过拥有权力和资源的跨政府机构建立一致的全球性国际税收合作框架。


But to no avail: Developed countries, led by the United States and the United Kingdom –home to many of the multinational corporations implicated in the “Lux Leaks” – succeeded in blocking this much-needed advance in global governance.

然而没有什么用：以美国和英国 — — “卢森堡泄密”中所牵涉到的众多跨国公司的母国 — — 为首的发达国家成功地阻挠了这一全球治理所急需的进展。


In the end, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda provides that the current Committee of Experts will continue to function according to its 2004 mandate, with three additional meeting days per year, all funded through voluntary contributions.

最终，亚的斯亚贝巴行动日程（Addis Ababa Action Agenda）规定，目前的专家委员会将继续根据其2004年的权限行使功能，每年增加三次会议，完全以自愿捐款的方式筹集资金。


That is a profoundly disappointing outcome.

这是一个令人失望透顶的结果。


The developed countries have an argument – but not a convincing one.

发达国家有它们的理由 — — 但是并不令人信服。


The OECD, whose members are essentially the world’s 34 richest countries, certainly has the capacity to set international standards on taxation.

事实上由全球34个最富裕国家组成的经合组织显然有能力制定国际税收标准。


Yet the domination of a select group of countries over tax norms has meant that, in reality, the global governance architecture for taxation has not kept pace with globalization.

但一小撮国家主宰税收规范意味着，在现实中，税收问题的全球治理结构早已与全球化脱节。


The Monterrey Consensus reached in 2002 included a call to enhance “the voice and participation of developing countries in international economic decision-making and norms-setting.”

2002年所达成的蒙特雷共识（Monterrey Consensus）呼吁强化“发展中国家在国际经济决策和规范制定中的声音和参与 ” 。


But although the OECD invites some developing countries to participate in its discussions to establish norms, it offers them no decision-making power.

但尽管经合组织邀请了一些发展中国家参与规范制定的讨论，却没有提供任何决策权力。


The OECD is thus a weak surrogate for a globally representative intergovernmental forum.

因此，经合组织只是有全球代表性的跨政府论坛的劣等替代品。


Such a body must operate under the auspices of the United Nations, which bears the institutional legitimacy necessary to respond effectively to the challenges of globalization with coherent global standards to combat abusive tax practices and ensure fair taxation of corporate profits worldwide.

这样一个机构必须在联合国框架下运行，联合国拥有必要的机构合法性，能够以一致的全球标准打击税收不法行为、确保全球公司利润公平纳税，从而有效应对全球化挑战。


Despite the disappointment in Addis Ababa, the call for reform of the international tax system is not likely to be silenced.

尽管亚的斯亚贝巴会议令人失望，但国际税收制度改革的呼声不可能平息。


Instead, it will grow louder on all sides, as the developed countries’ counter-productive resistance to any give and take on international cooperation results in a tsunami of unilateral tax measures beyond OECD control.

相反，随着发达国家适得其反地拒绝在国际税收合作问题上做出让步导致了经合组织控制不了的单方面税收措施风暴，各方的呼声都会日益增强


The Making of Euro-Jihadism

欧洲圣战主义的形成


MADRID – The Belgian historian Henri Pirenne linked Europe’s birth as a Christian continent in the eighth century to its rupture with Islam.

马德里 — — 比利时历史学家亨利·皮雷纳将欧洲这块基督教大陆的诞生与公元八世纪与伊斯兰教的决裂联系在一起。


Pirenne probably would never have expected a Muslim ghetto in Brussels to emerge, much less become a hub of jihadism, with marginalized and angry young Muslims revolting against Europe from within its own borders.

皮雷纳或许永远也不会想到布鲁塞尔有朝一日会出现穆斯林贫民窟，更不会想到这里会成为圣战主义的中心，眼睁睁看着被边缘化和愤怒的穆斯林青年从欧洲的境内反抗欧洲。


Divorce is not an option these days.

现阶段用离婚来解决问题已经并不现实。


But nor is the kind of marriage that the Islam scholar Tariq Ramadan advocates.

但也不能容许伊斯兰教学者塔里克·拉马丹所宣扬的那种婚姻继续下去。


Ramadan, a grandson of the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, is a Swiss citizen and a resident of the United Kingdom who argues that Islamic ethics and values should be injected into the European system.

埃及穆斯林兄弟会创始人的孙子拉马丹是一名瑞士公民，同时在英国拥有居民身份，他提出伊斯兰教的道德和价值观应当被注入到欧洲国家的体制。


Europe would then not just tolerate Islam, but actually embrace it as an integral part of itself.

那样欧洲就不仅要容忍伊斯兰教，而且还要在实际上接受它作为自身的有机组成部分。


The problem with Ramadan’s vision is that Europe is an overwhelmingly secular continent, with a profoundly forward-thinking approach to ethics.

拉马丹愿景的问题在于欧洲是一块世俗势力占压倒性优势的大陆，在道德观方面有着深刻的前瞻性思维。


Islamic societies, by contrast, are both deeply religious and deeply embedded in the past.

而伊斯兰社会则恰恰相反，拥有深刻的宗教色彩并且深深植根于过去。


When Islamists speak of political or social reform, they are typically looking backward, hoping to resurrect a time when core European principles – from gender equality to gay marriage – were repudiated.

当伊斯兰教徒谈论政治和社会改革的时候，他们普遍都在回首过去，希望复兴的那个时代否定从性别平等到同性婚姻在内的欧洲核心原则。


Even Muslims who support the modernization of Islam would typically stop well short of Europe’s ethical vision.

就连那些支持伊斯兰教现代化的穆斯林往往也会对欧洲的道德愿景望而却步。


The flaws in Ramadan’s proposed solution to Euro-jihadism mirror the flaws in his explanation for the phenomenon, which he attributes largely to Europe’s involvement in the wars in the Middle East, its supposed collusion with Israel’s suppression of the Palestinians, and its support of Arab autocrats.

拉马丹所提的针对欧洲圣战主义解决方案的缺陷其实是他对这种现象解释的缺陷的反映。 他把圣战主义在欧洲的泛滥大致归咎于欧洲卷入了中东战争、欧洲所谓的与以色列勾结对巴勒斯坦人的镇压以及其对阿拉伯独裁者的支持。


“We cannot,” he writes, “support dictatorships … be silent when civilians are massacred south of our borders, and hope that we will not receive a response to the injustice and humiliation we have provoked.”

“我们不能 ， ” 他写道 ， “ 支持独裁制度 . . . 当平民在我们的边境以南遭受屠杀时保持沉默，并且希望我们不会因为挑起不公和屈辱而遭到回应。


But it is the United States that launched wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, offers unconditional support to Israel, and has repeatedly propped up Arab autocrats.

但是美国发动了伊拉克和阿富汗战争、为以色列提供无条件支持并一再支持阿拉伯独裁者。


And it is Europe that has consistently criticized these policies – often harshly.

欧洲一直对这些政策持批评态度 — — 往往言辞还非常激烈。


Yet America is not being subjected to a major surge of jihadist sentiment within its borders.

但美国并没有遭受到境内圣战情绪高涨的打击。


It might have helped that US President Barack Obama backed away from some of these policies.

美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马逐渐收回这些政策或许有助于缓解对美国的仇恨情绪。


When the Arab Spring uprisings began, for example, he was quick to cut support for Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, allowing protesters – inspired by the Western model of democracy – to secure regime change.

例如，在阿拉伯之春起义开始时，他很快切断了对突尼斯总统宰因·阿比丁·本·阿里和埃及总统穆巴拉克的支持，并允许受西方民主模式启发的抗议者实现政权更替。


The return to autocracy in Egypt in 2013, via Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s coup d’état, certainly was not aided by the US or Europe, both of which supported the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood.

美国或欧洲肯定从未支持2013年埃及借助阿卜杜勒 - 法塔赫·塞西政变回归专制，美欧双方都对通过民主选举产生的穆斯林兄弟会表示支持。


Europe has offered even more direct help to Arab countries in recent years.

近年来，欧洲甚至为阿拉伯国家提供了更多的直接帮助。


If it were not for Europe’s military intervention, Libyans would still be living under the tyrannical Muammar el-Qaddafi.

如果不是欧洲的军事干预，利比亚人迄今将仍在残暴的卡扎菲统治下生活。


True, Europe could have done more to prevent the ensuing chaos in Libya.

的确，欧洲本来可以付出更大努力来阻止利比亚随后发生的混乱。


But the people of Libya surely must take responsibility for the proliferation of competing militias that refuse to unite to save their state from total collapse.

但利比亚民众无疑也应该对拒绝联合起来挽救国家陷入彻底崩溃命运的四处扩张的民兵武装负责。


More broadly, though the West – especially the US – has made grave policy errors in the Arab world over the last 50 years, external powers cannot be blamed entirely for the region’s meltdown.

从更广义的角度讲，虽然西方 — — 尤其是美国 — — 过去50年来在阿拉伯世界的确犯下了严重的政策错误，但外部势力却不能完全对地区的危机负责。


That is the result of a profound civilizational crisis – one that can be redressed only by the people of the Arab world.

目前的局势是一场深刻的文明危机的结果 — — 只有阿拉伯世界的民众才能解决它。


If Europe’s foreign policy is not responsible for the Arab world’s current turmoil, it certainly cannot be the reason for the rise of jihadism within its own borders.

如果欧洲的外交政策并不承担阿拉伯世界当前局势混乱的责任，那么它无疑也不应是欧洲境内圣战主义崛起的理由。


The real problem lies at home: a disastrous deficit of effective policies related to social justice, education, housing, and employment for young European Muslims.

真正的问题其实在于国内：在于严重缺乏与欧洲穆斯林青年社会正义、教育、住房和就业相关的有效政策。


Marginalization generates frustration, which is subsequently fed by growing Islamophobia and the rise of raucous right-wing movements throughout the continent.

边缘化带来挫败感，日益严重的伊斯兰恐惧症和整个欧洲大陆吵吵嚷嚷的右翼运动崛起又为这种挫败感火上浇油。


This link is apparent in the fact that the majority of European jihadists come from underprivileged backgrounds.

欧洲圣战者绝大多数来自底层证明了这种联系确实存在。


Not particularly well versed in the true teachings of Islam, and lacking opportunities to improve their lives, they become easy prey for extremists.

他们既缺乏对伊斯兰教教义的真正理解，也缺乏改善生活的实际机会，因此非常容易成为极端分子的猎物。


Jihadism, with its absolute certainty and grand mission, offers a sense of purpose, pride, and identity – not to mention adventure – and an outlet for their anger against the “home” that has denied them those things.

圣战主义以其绝对的确定性和庄严的使命感为这些迷茫青年提供了目的感、自豪感和自我认同 — — 更不用说还有冒险的机会 — — 此外还为他们提供了对剥夺其上述权利的“家园”发泄愤怒情绪的出口。


The story of America’s Muslims is the measure of Europe’s failure.

美国的穆斯林现状凸显了欧洲的失败政策。


Like most Americans, Muslims in the US maintain a certain amount of faith in the American dream.

像绝大多数美国人一样，美国穆斯林仍然在一定程度上相信美国梦。


They are mostly middle class, and, despite all the talk about rising economic inequality, they have not given up on the belief that, in the US, hard work and initiative are rewarded.

他们大多是中产阶级，而且尽管所有人都在谈论经济不��等日益严重，但他们并没有放弃在美国辛勤工作和积极主动就能得到回报的信仰。


America is a country of immigrants, with a dynamic economy that has enabled newcomers, time and again, to achieve great success.

美国是一个移民之国，其充满活力的经济一次次的让新移民取得了巨大的成功。


In Europe, by contrast, improving one’s social standing has always been very difficult; and, at a time of economic stagnation and staggeringly high unemployment, it is not getting any easier.

而欧洲的情况则恰恰相反，提升一个人的社会地位一向是相当困难的；而且在经济停滞和失业率惊人高企的情况下，提升社会地位的难度更是可想而知。


Socially, America also offers something to Muslims that Europe does not.

在社会领域，美国也能赋予穆斯林某些欧洲无法赋予的宽容。


Its fundamentally religious culture enables Muslims to retain their identity to a far greater extent than in secular Europe.

美国本质上的宗教文化使得穆斯林能比在世俗的欧洲在更大程度上保留对自身身份的认同。


Indeed, America’s core values – personal responsibility and constitutional patriotism – can be easier for Muslims to swallow than Europe’s more aggressively secular brand of liberalism.

事实上，美国个人责任和宪法爱国主义的核心价值观相比欧洲更激进的世俗自由主义对穆斯林而言更容易接受。


As a result, integration and assimilation tend to be easier for Muslims in America.

因此，穆斯林移民在美国的融合和同化更容易取得成功。


All of this suggests that Europe must look inward to address homegrown jihadism effectively.

所有这些表明，欧洲必须自我审视才能有效解决内生性的圣战主义问题。


This does not mean that it should temper its secularism, much less its liberal values.

这并不意味着它必须改变世俗主义，更不意味着要改变自由主义价值观。


Rather, Europe must breathe life into its own “European dream,” ensuring that all people have access to real opportunities to improve their lives.

恰恰相反，欧洲必须为“欧洲梦”注入新的活力，确保所有人都有切实的机会改善自己的生活。


Otherwise, it will face a lost generation of millions of young Europeans – Muslim and otherwise.

否则，它将面临着由成百上千万欧洲年轻人组成的失去的一代 — — 其中既包括穆斯林也包括欧洲其他民众。


The New Climate Economics

新气候经济学


NEW YORK – This Friday, in its latest comprehensive assessment of the evidence on global warming, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will show that the world’s climate scientists are more certain than ever that human activity – largely combustion of fossil fuels – is causing temperatures and sea levels to rise.

纽约—本周五，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）对全球变暖的证据的最新评估表明，世界气候科学家比此前任何时候都要确定人类活动 — — 主要是燃烧化石燃料 — — 正在引起气温和海平面升高。


In recent years, a series of extreme weather events – including Hurricane Sandy in New York and New Jersey, floods in China, and droughts in the American Midwest, Russia, and many developing countries – have caused immense damage.

近几年来，一系列极端天气事件 — — 包括纽约和新泽西的桑迪飓风、中国的洪水和美国中西部、俄罗斯和众多发展中国家的旱灾 — — 造成了严重伤害。


Last week, Mexico experienced simultaneous hurricanes in the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico that devastated towns and cities in their path.

上周，墨西哥经历了太平洋和墨西哥湾飓风的同时袭击，飓风过境之处，村镇和城市俱毁。


Climate change will be a major driver of such events, and we risk much worse.

气候变化是此类事件的重要因素，而且我们面临的局面越来越糟糕。


This puts a new debate center stage: how to reconcile increased action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with strong economic growth.

这把一个新争论带到了舞台中央：如何协调越来越多的行动以降低伴随强劲经济增长出现的温室气体排放。


It is a debate that is already mired in controversy.

这一争论已经迷失在争议之中。


As most countries have started making serious investments in renewable energy, and many are implementing carbon prices and regulations, critics complain that such policies may undermine growth.

大部分国家已开始动真格投资于可再生能源，许多国家更是开始实施碳定价和监管，与此同时，批评家指责这些政策会阻碍增长。


With the global economy still recovering from the 2008 financial crash, higher energy costs – not yet fully offset by greater energy efficiency – are worrying business and political leaders.

全球经济仍在从2008年金融动荡中复苏，更高的能源价格 — — 无法通过提高能源效率充分抵消 — — 让商业和政治领袖颇为担心。


The advent of shale gas has confused the energy debate even more.

页岩气的出现让能源争论更加扑朔迷离了。


If gas is substituted for coal, it can be a useful bridge to a low-carbon future.

用气代替煤不失为通往低碳未来的捷径。


But astonishingly, it is coal, the dirtiest fuel, that is experiencing the sharpest increase in use.

但是，令人震惊的是，用量增加最剧烈的恰恰是最肮脏的燃料 — — 煤。


Companies and investors are hedging their bets by taking a few resource-efficiency measures and investing in some low-carbon assets, but leaving their high-carbon portfolios and activities largely intact.

公司和投资者通过采取些许资源效率措施、投资些许低碳资产对冲赌注，但他们的高碳投资组合和行为并未出现多大改变。


Policy vacillation in some countries has not helped.

一些国家的政策犹豫也不利于大局。


Advocates of stronger action respond that low-carbon investments can generate much stronger, cleaner growth.

加强行动的支持者回应道，低碳投资可以带来强劲得多、洁净得多的增长。


They point to the savings available from energy efficiency, and to the market opportunities generated by clean-energy technologies as the processes of learning and discovery take hold.

他们指出，随着学习和发现的进行，能源效率能带来节约，而清洁能源技术能带来市场机会。


They seek to demonstrate the benefits that a more sustainable pattern of development can bring to the world’s cities, to people’s health (from the reduction in air pollution), to energy security, and to the ability of the world’s poor to access energy.

他们试图证明，更加可持续的发展模式给世界各大城市 、 （ 通过减少空气污染）给人民健康、给能源安全带来诸多好处，也能让穷人获得更多的能源。


And they propose green bonds and public investment banks to finance new infrastructure and jobs at a time when world interest rates are low and demand is depressed in many countries.

他们建议发行绿色债券，敦促上市投资银行利用世界利率较低、许多国家需求受抑制的时机为新基础设施和就业提供资金支持。


These are serious economic debates, but too often they have become entangled in ideological disputes about the appropriate response to the economic crisis and the value of government intervention in markets.

这些都是很严肃的经济学争论，但它们往往演化为关于经济危机的合理应对措施和政府干预市场的价值的意识形态纠纷。


That is regrettable.

这实在令人遗憾。


Climate change is not a partisan issue, and climate policy is essentially market-based.

气候变化并非派系之争，气候政策从根本上说也是基于市场的。


It is about correcting market failures so that markets and entrepreneurship can play their proper role of ensuring innovation and efficient resource allocation.

这是关于纠正市场失灵从而使市场和企业家精神能够在保证创新和有效资源配置中扮演适当角色的问题。


In order to escape this impasse, we have helped to launch the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.

为了跳出这一僵局，我们协助成立了全球经济和气候委员会（Global Commission on the Economy and Climate ） 。


The Commission’s New Climate Economy project brings together seven leading policy research institutes from six continents, overseen by a panel of former heads of government and finance ministers and prominent business leaders, and advised by a panel of leading economists from across the world.

委员会的新气候经济（New Climate Economy）项目集合了六大洲的七大领先政策研究机构，由前政府首脑、财政部长和注明商业领袖组成的专家委员会监督，由全球著名经济学家组成的专家委员会担任顾问。


Its purpose is to provide authoritative new evidence concerning how governments and businesses can achieve stronger economic growth while simultaneously addressing climate risks.

其目的是提供关于政府和企业如何在实现更强的经济增长的同时纠正气候风险的权威新证据。


Few governments or investors start from the standpoint of climate change.

很少有政府或投资者以气候变化为出发点。


They want to promote investment and economic growth, create jobs, stabilize public finances, expand markets, turn profits, ensure reliable energy and food supplies, produce goods and services, reduce poverty, and build cities.

他们想促进投资和经济增长、创造就业岗位、稳定公共财政、扩大市场、带来利润、保证可靠的能源和食品供给、生产商品和服务、减少贫困以及建设城市。


So the primary question that we need to ask is not whether we can reduce emissions, but how public policy can help to achieve these core goals while reducing emissions and building a more climate-resilient economy.

因此，我们需要问的主要问题不是能否减少排放，而是公共政策如何帮助在实现这些核心目标的同时减少排放、建设气候恢复力强的经济。


There is now a lot of experience around the world in this area.

在这方面，全世界范围有许多经验可以遵循。


When the Stern Review on the economics of climate change was published seven years ago, the subject was largely theoretical.

七年前关于气候变化经济学的《斯特恩报告 》 （ Stern Review）发布时，这个主题基本上还停留在理论阶段。


Now countries at all stages of development are pursuing new patterns of economic growth that take climate into account.

如今，处于各个发展阶段的各国都在追求新的考虑气候问题的经济增长模式。


Germany, for example, is planning the world’s most ambitious low-carbon energy transition, based on energy conservation and renewables.

比如，德国正在规划全世界最有雄心的低碳经济转型，该计划以节能和可再生为基础。


South Korea has made “green growth” a central economic goal.

韩国将“绿色增长”制定为核心经济目标。


Mexico’s 2012 General Law on Climate Change has put it on course for a major increase in clean power.

墨西哥2012年气候变化一般法（General Law on Climate Change）将大大提高清洁电力的用量。


China has placed the industrial development of green technologies at the top of its agenda.

中国将绿色技术产业开发作为其日程的最优先项目。


Ethiopia is seeking to move to lower-carbon farming.

埃塞俄比亚正在寻求发展低碳农业。


Brazil has significantly reduced the rate of deforestation in the Amazon.

巴西极大地降低了亚马孙森林的采伐速度。


Some major businesses are providing powerful examples of what is possible.

一些大企业提供了有力的例子，让我们知道可以做到什么程度。


Unilever has committed to the sustainable sourcing of agricultural and forest products.

联合利华承诺使用可持续的农业和森林产品源。


Coca-Cola is phasing out all use of climate-polluting hydrofluorocarbons.

可口可乐正在彻底停用污染气候的氢氟碳化合物。


The retail giant Wal-Mart is driving emissions reduction throughout its supply chain.

零售巨头沃尔玛在其全供应链推动减排运动。


Meanwhile, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank have stopped lending to high-emission coal plants.

与此同时，世界银行和欧洲投资银行也不再向高排放煤电贷款。


Yet genuine questions remain about how fast economies should move on to a low-carbon path, and the most effective way to do so.

但真正的问题依然存在 — — 经济可以以多快的速度迈向低碳之路，以及什么通过什么办法实现最有效。


Some low-carbon policies have clearly been expensive, while other, apparently cost-effective options, have not been pursued at all.

一些低碳政策显然代价十分高昂，而一些显然成本很低的选择则完全没有人实施。


Any structural transformation involves costs, trade-offs, and uncertainties, and it is vital that we understand these properly.

任何结构性变化都包括成本、权衡和不确定性，合理地理解这些因素十分重要。


Powerful interests will, of course, oppose any low-carbon transition, dismissing and often drowning out those who stand to benefit.

当然，强大的既得利益会反对一切低碳转型，打压甚至挤出低碳转型的受益者。


That makes it even more important to clarify the choices.

这意味着澄清选择更加重要了。


As science makes clear how imperative the climate question is, it is time for economists and policymakers to explain how it can be answered.

科学已经清楚地证明了气候问题的紧迫性，现在该轮到经济学家和决策者来解释如何应对这一紧迫性了。


The Mouse Click that Roared

咆哮的鼠标


CAMBRIDGE – Until recently, cyber security has primarily interested computer geeks and cloak-and-dagger types.

美国剑桥—直到最近，关注网络安全的还大多是电脑极客和阴谋论者。


The Internet’s creators, part of a small, enclosed community, were very comfortable with an open system in which security was not a primary concern.

互联网的创造者 — — 他们属于一个封闭的小圈子 — — 对安全并非主要顾虑的开放系统感到十分满意。


But, with some three billion or so users on the Web nowadays, that very openness has become a serious vulnerability; indeed, it is endangering the vast economic opportunities that the Internet has opened for the world.

但是，如今有三十亿网络使用者，这一开放性成了严重的弱点；事实上，这个弱点正在威胁到互联网为世界打开的广袤的经济机会海洋。


A “cyber attack” can take any number of forms, including simple probes, defacement of Web sites, denial-of-service attacks, espionage, and destruction of data.

“网络攻击”可以以数不清的形式出现，包括简单的侵入、涂鸦网站、拒绝服务攻击、间谍活动和毁坏数据。


And the term “cyber war,” though best defined as any hostile action in cyberspace that amplifies or is equivalent to major physical violence, remains equally protean, reflecting definitions of “war” that range from armed conflict to any concerted effort to solve a problem (for example, “war on poverty”).

“网络战”一词也是千变万化 — — 尽管最好的定义是放大或等同于重大实体侵犯的网络空间上的敌对行动 — — 可以反映从武装冲突到齐心协力解决问题（比如“减贫战 ” ） 在内的一系列“战”的定义。


Cyber war and cyber espionage are largely associated with states, while cyber crime and cyber terrorism are mostly associated with non-state actors.

网络战和网络间谍大多与国家有关，与此同时，网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义往往由非国家行动者发出。


The highest costs currently stem from espionage and crime; but, over the next decade or so, cyber war and cyber terrorism may become greater threats than they are today.

目前，最大的成本来自间谍和犯罪；但是，在未来十年中，网络战和网络恐怖主义有可能成为比今天更大的威胁。


Moreover, as alliances and tactics evolve, the categories may increasingly overlap.

此外，同盟和战术的演化，分类也可能日渐重叠。


Terrorists might buy malware from criminals, and governments might find it useful to hide behind both.

恐怖主义可以从犯罪分子那里买来恶意软件，政府可能会在背后指使。


Some people argue that deterrence does not work in cyberspace, owing to the difficulties of attribution.

有人认为，威慑在网络空间中并不管用，因为其来源难以确定。


But that is facile: inadequate attribution affects inter-state deterrence as well, yet it still operates.

但这简直是信口开河：不充分的来源确定同样影响着国家间的威慑，但威慑仍然常常被使用。


Even when the source of an attack can be successfully disguised under a “false flag,” governments may find themselves sufficiently enmeshed in symmetrically interdependent relationships such that a major attack would be counterproductive.

即便攻击源头可以用“伪旗”成功掩盖，政府仍可能陷入对称依赖的关系，让重大攻击产生适得其反的效果。


China, for example, would lose from an attack that severely damaged the American economy, and vice versa.

比如，中国可能因为严重危害美国经济的袭击中受到损失，反之亦然。


An unknown attacker may also be deterred by cyber-security measures.

未知的攻击者还能被网络安全措施威慑。


If firewalls are strong, or redundancy and resilience allow quick recovery, or the prospect of a self-enforcing response (“an electric fence”) seems possible, an attack becomes less attractive.

如果防火墙够强，或冗余性和恢复力足以让其快速回复，或有可能产生自我强化反应 （ “ 电围栏 ” ） ，实施攻击就会变得不再具有吸引力。


While accurate attribution of the ultimate source of a cyber attack is sometimes difficult, the determination does not have to be airtight.

尽管准确地确定网络攻击的最终来源有时十分困难，但也不是一筹莫展。


To the extent that false flags are imperfect and rumors of the source of an attack are widely deemed credible (though not legally probative), reputational damage to an attacker’s soft power may contribute to deterrence.

由于伪旗的不完善性以及关于攻击来源的传闻被广泛认为是可靠的（尽管未经法律验证 ） ， 对攻击者软实力的名誉伤害也能形成威慑。


Finally, a reputation for offensive capability and a declared policy that keeps open the means of retaliation can help to reinforce deterrence.

最后，攻击能力的名声和公开宣布以牙还牙政策也有助于增强威慑。


Of course, non-state actors are harder to deter, so improved defenses such as pre-emption and human intelligence become important in such cases.

当然，非国家行动者更难侦测，因此改善防线 — — 比如先发制人和人力情报 — — 在这类案件中就变得十分重要。


But, among states, even nuclear deterrence was more complex than it first looked, and that is doubly true of deterrence in the cyber domain.

但是，在国家之间，即便是核威慑也比乍看上去更复杂，在网络空间中的威慑更是如此。


Given its global nature, the Internet requires a degree of international cooperation to be able to function.

出于其全球性，互联网需要一定程度的国际合作才能运行。


Some people call for the cyber equivalent of formal arms-control treaties.

有人呼吁制定互联网版的正式武器控制条约。


But differences in cultural norms and the difficulty of verification would make such treaties hard to negotiate or implement.

但文化规范差异和查证困难将使这类条约难以谈判和实施。


At the same time, it is important to pursue international efforts to develop rules of the road that can limit conflict.

与此同时，追求制定防止冲突的国际规则十分重要。


The most promising areas for international cooperation today most likely concern problems posed for states by third parties such as criminals and terrorists.

如今，最有希望的国际合作领域是第三方给国家带来的问题，比如犯罪和恐怖主义。


Russia and China have sought to establish a treaty establishing broad international oversight of the Internet and “information security,” which would prohibit deception and embedding malicious code or circuitry that could be activated in the event of war.

俄罗斯和中国寻求制定条约建立对互联网和“信息安全”的全面国际监督，该条约将禁止欺诈和嵌入在可以在战争事件发生时激活的恶意代码和电路。


But the US has argued that arms-control measures banning offensive capabilities could weaken defenses against attacks and would be impossible to verify or enforce.

但美国认为限制攻击能力的武器控制措施会削弱针对攻击的防御，并且难以论证和强制实施。


Likewise, in terms of political values, the US has resisted agreements that could legitimize authoritarian governments’ censorship of the Internet – for example, by the “great firewall of China.”

类似地，在政治价值方面，美国拒绝了可能让独裁政府审查互联网合法化的协定 — — 比如“中国防火长城 ” 。


Moreover, cultural differences impede any broad agreements on regulating online content.

此外，文化差异阻止了任何监管在线内容的广泛协定。


Nonetheless, it may be possible to identify behaviors like cyber crime that are illegal in many domestic jurisdictions.

尽管如此，在本国司法辖区内鉴别网络犯罪等非法行为仍是可能的。


Trying to limit all intrusions would be impossible, but one could start with cyber crime and cyber terrorism involving non-state parties.

阻止一切侵入或许不可行，但可以从网络犯罪和非国家行动方参与的网络恐怖主义着手。


Here, major states would have an interest in limiting damage by agreeing to cooperate on forensics and controls.

在这方面，通过同意在取证和控制方面达成一致来限制伤害符合大国的利益。


The transnational cyber domain poses new questions about the meaning of national security.

跨国网络空间给我们带来了关于国家安全含义的新问题。


Some of the most important responses must be national and unilateral, focused on hygiene, redundancy, and resilience.

一些最重要的应对措施必须是国家层面的、单方面的，专注于清扫、冗余性和恢复力。


It is likely, however, that major governments will soon discover that the insecurity created by non-state cyber actors will require closer cooperation among governments.

但是，很有可能大国政府很快就会发现，由非国家网络行动者造成的不完全将要求各国政府间进行紧密合作。


A Practical Agenda for Revolutionary Times

革命时代的务实日程


OXFORD – As the world’s financial leaders gather for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings, many working people around the world are demanding radical change, because they sense that their voices are not being heard.

牛津—在世界金融领导人齐聚国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行春季会议之际，全世界许多工作人口正在要求彻底的变革，因为他们认为他们的声音没有得到聆听。


Those who are supposed to represent them should not ignore this anger and frustration any longer.

他们的所谓代表们不应该继续忽视这一愤怒和失望了。


According to the 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer, the public’s confidence in the status quo has collapsed worldwide, owing to widely held concerns about globalization, innovation, immigration, the erosion of social values, and corruption.

据2017年阿德尔曼信任报告（2017 Edelman Trust Barometer ） ， 全世界对现状的公共信心都出现了暴跌，原因在于人们对全球化、创新、移民、社会价值观的堕落和腐败普遍感到担忧。


At the same time, the response from elites who regard themselves as the guardians of economic growth has sometimes made matters worse.

与此同时，自视为经济增长的守护神的精英的反应有时令情况雪上加霜。


If they think they can allay public concerns simply by explaining the benefits of the current global economic system and tweaking policies to compensate those left behind, they are in for a rude awakening.

如果他们认为他们可以仅凭解释当前全球经济体系的好处，以及调整政策补偿落后群体就能平息公众质疑的话，他们将遭到当头棒喝。


Earlier this month, the IMF, World Bank, and World Trade Organization published a joint report extolling the benefits of trade as a driver of productivity growth, competition, and consumer choice.

本月早些时候，IMF、世界银行和世界贸易组织发布了一份联合报告，报告称赞贸易是生产率增长、竞争和消费选择的推进器。


The report’s argument in favor of free trade is not new, nor is its recommendation that “active labor-market policies” be used to cushion the blow of lost jobs and livelihoods.

这一支持自由贸易的观点并不新鲜，而报告中所提出的用“积极的劳动力市场政策”支持丧失工作和生计的群体的建议也是了无新意。


What is new is that repeating these claims, without also addressing people’s deeper concerns, can now do more harm than good.

新的情况是，反复强调这些观点，而不同时解决人们更深层次的担忧，很有可能弊大于利。


Global public opinion has changed dramatically in recent years.

全球公共观点在近几年中发生了剧烈变化。


A majority of people worldwide – and up to 72% of people in France and Italy – now believe that the system has failed them.

大部分世界人口 — — 法国和意大利已经高达72 % — —现在相信体系辜负了他们。


Moreover, only 29% of people across 28 countries now trust government leaders, while three-quarters of those surveyed say they trust reformers who would upend the status quo.

此外，在28个国家中只有29%的群众信任政府领导人，而四分之三的受访者表示他们信任将颠覆现状的改革家。


These findings suggest that those defending free trade have lost credibility with the people they hope to persuade.

这些发现表明，自由贸易的捍卫者已经失去了在他们希望说服的群众中的信誉。


World leaders need to recognize that today’s populist revolts are being fueled by a sense of lost dignity – a sentiment that does not factor into most policymakers’ prescription for economic growth and compensatory payments.

世界领导人需要认识到，当今民粹主义反动正在受到一种失去尊严的感觉的推动 — — 而这种感觉并没有在大部分决策者为经济增长和补偿性支付所开出的药方中获得考虑。


Working-class voters have lashed out because they feel not just economically abandoned, but also socially disdained and culturally marginalized.

工作阶级选民群情激奋，因为他们不但觉得自己在经济上遭到了抛弃，在社会上和文化上也遭到了鄙视和边缘化。


Their vote is the only means they have left to hit back at the establishment.

他们的选票是他们眼中唯一可以反击建制的手段。


To address the public’s concerns requires a three-part agenda.

解决公众担忧需要一套三部分的日程。


The first order of business should be to reach out to those who feel voiceless and unrepresented.

首要任务是向觉得没人聆听和代表自己的群体抛出橄榄枝。


During the US presidential campaign, Donald Trump tapped into this sentiment when he vowed to punish any company that moves jobs to China or Mexico.

在美国总统选战期间，特朗普就利用了这一情绪，承诺要惩罚所有将工作岗位迁往中国或墨西哥的公司。


As the filmmaker Michael Moore explained prior to the election, American working-class voters were desperate to hear someone promise to take on big business.

电影制片人迈克尔·摩尔（Michael Moore）在大选前解释道，美国工作阶级选民急切地想听到有人承诺向大企业开刀。


The fact that it took a populist plutocrat to do it underscores the extent to which the American labor movement has been extinguished.

由一位民粹主义财阀来做这件事这一事实让美国劳工运动的穷途末路表露无遗。


Political parties that originally emerged from the labor movement have long since shifted to the “center.”

最初从劳工运动发展而来的政党早已转向了“中间派 ” 。


They now accept political contributions from big business, and have accordingly adopting the language of common prosperity and “consensus politics,” leaving the many working people who do not share in that prosperity and consensus feeling disregarded and displaced.

如今，它们接受大企业的政治献金，并据此举起了共同繁荣和“共识政治”的大旗，让许多未能从这一繁荣和共识中分得一杯羹的工作阶级觉得受到了无视和迷茫。


Second, the quality of work, and the status that it confers, must be improved.

其次，工作的质量，以及工作所带来的地位，必须改善。


In wealthy countries, precarious, poorly paid, and even dangerous forms of employment are becoming increasingly common.

在富裕国家，不稳定、低薪乃至危险的就业形式正变得日益普遍。


A recent Bloomberg Businessweek story describes how temporary workers at auto-parts factories in Alabama are paid just $7.25 per hour, and must work in hazardous conditions with no safety training.

新一期《彭博商业周刊》上的一篇报道描述了亚拉巴马州汽车零件厂的临时工每小时只能挣7.25美元，并且必须在高风险环境中工作，还得不到安全培训。


In 2010, these workers suffered work injuries at a 50% higher rate than unionized auto-parts workers elsewhere.

2010年，这些工人的工伤率比其他地方的非工会成员汽车零件工人高50 % 。


As the OECD has shown, “non-standard” work is proliferating globally.

经合组织指出 ， “ 非标准”工作正在全球兴起。


This trend is contributing to deteriorating working conditions, making workers feel increasingly helpless and vulnerable.

这一趋势导致了工作环境的恶化，让工人觉得越来越无助和脆弱。


Reversing it will require robust standards to ensure workplace safety, fair pay, and the right to enter into collective-bargaining arrangements.

扭转这一状况需要制定严格的标准保证工作场所安全、公平薪资和参与集体议价安排的权利。


Governments will have to intervene to set these standards, as they did during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries to improve abysmal conditions in factories.

政府需要干预制定这些标准，一如它们在十九和二十世纪干预改善恶劣的工厂环境。


Otherwise, businesses will not be able to behave decently, for fear of being undercut by unscrupulous competitors.

否则，企业将无法体面地运行，因为它们面临着无良竞争者的恶性竞争。


Finally, more opportunities must be created for the next generation – and not just economic opportunities.

最后，必须为子孙后代创造更多机会 — — 不仅仅是经济机会。


Since the 2008 financial crisis, many governments have reduced their investments in health, education, housing, and other forms of human capital.

2008年金融危机以来，许多政府缩减了它们在卫生、教育、住房和其他形式的人力资本上的投资。


Many have also cut support for the unemployed, homeless, or indebted.

许多政府还削减了对失业者、无家可归者和负债者的支持。


As a result, those who have fallen behind are deprived not just of resources, but, more important, the chance to pursue their aspirations.

结果，落后群体不但被剥夺了资源，跟重要的是，也被剥夺了追求理想的机会。


As the IMF, World Bank, and WTO show in their report, free trade and globalization have certainly increased the size of the overall economic pie.

IMF、世界银行和世贸组织在它们的报告中指出，自由贸易和全球化毫无疑问扩大了经济蛋糕的总规模。


In theory, this should have expanded governments’ capacity to compensate those left behind and create the conditions for them to get ahead.

理论上，这应该能提升政府补偿落后群体、为他们创造迎头赶上的条件的能力。


In fact, the opposite has happened, owing to government cutbacks since 2008.

事实上，情况正好相反，原因就在于2008年以来政府的紧缩政策。


The establishment’s agenda has been failing for too long.

建制派的日程早已失败多时。


And as elites continue to proclaim the benefits of free trade and globalization, they are merely widening the chasm of popular mistrust.

而在精英们继续鼓吹自由贸易和全球化的好处的时候，他们只能不断地扩大公众的信任裂痕。


Over the past year, that mistrust has boiled over in many countries, with voters in one election after another rejecting the status quo.

在过去的一年中，这一不信任在许多国家引爆，在一次又一次选举中，选民们都拒绝了现状。


Piecemeal curbs on globalization will not be enough to quell the revolt.

零敲碎打的全球化限制不足以平息这场反动。


Instead, world leaders must leave their echo chamber, take ordinary people’s concerns seriously, diversify their views, and think about why so many have lost faith in the system.

相反，世界领导人应该走出他们的回音室，认真对待普罗大众的担忧，多样化他们的观点，思考为什么如此多人失去了对体系的信念。


The Development Costs of Homophobia

同性恋的发展成本


LONDON – As a gay man living in Nigeria, my biggest challenge was choosing between my sexuality and my job.

伦敦—作为一个生活在尼日利亚的男同性恋，我最大的挑战是在性取向和工作之间做出选择。


In 2004, I was at the start of my acting career.

2004年，我开始了我的表演生涯。


I had just left university, and I was featured in “Roses and Thorns,” a prime-time soap opera on Galaxy Television, one of Nigeria’s most popular TV stations. I was playing the role of “Richard,” the only son of a rich family who was having an affair with the house maid.

当时我刚刚告别校园，在尼日利亚最受欢迎的电视台银河电视台（Galaxy Television）的黄金档肥皂剧《玫瑰与荆棘 》 （ Roses and Thorns）中扮演一个叫做“理查德 ” （ Richard）的角色，理查德是一个富裕家庭唯一的儿子，与女佣发生了一段罗曼史。


Whispers were making the rounds about my private life, and I decided it was time to come out.

关于我的私生活流言蜚语不断，我决定是时候站出来了。


So I agreed to go on Nigeria’s most-watched television talk show to discuss my sexuality.

因此我同意参加尼日利亚收视率最高的电视脱口秀讨论我的性取向。


Almost immediately, my character was eliminated.

我的角色几乎马上就被取消了。


And when my job disappeared, so did my financial security.

丢了饭碗的我也失去了财务保障。


Like many gay men and lesbians in Africa, my choice was between economic freedom and mental imprisonment.

与非洲的众多男女同性恋一样，我必须在经济自由和精神禁锢之间做出选择。


This year, Nigeria and Uganda put in place draconian anti-gay laws, sparking a worldwide debate about human rights.

今年，尼日利亚和乌干达都出台了严厉的反同性恋法律，激起了关于人权的全球争论。


This debate has also started at the World Bank, whose president, Jim Yong Kim, recently declared that “institutionalized discrimination is bad for people and for societies.”

这场争论也在世界银行展开，行长金墉最近宣布“制度化歧视对人类和社会不利。 ”


Kim’s statement has invited criticism and controversy.

金墉的表态招来了批评和争议。


Often, as in Uganda and Nigeria, we hear the claim that opposition to official discrimination against gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people is simply a way to impose “Western” values on Africa.

通常，与在乌干达和尼日利亚一样，我们总是听到这样的声音：反对针对男同性恋、女同性恋、双性恋和变性人的正式歧视纯属将“西方”价值强加于非洲头上。


But this assumes that homosexuality is “un-African.”

但这一论断意味着同性恋是“不非洲”的。


And, despite the absence of evidence that any given country or continent does not have LGBT people (and ample evidence to the contrary), it is an assumption that an increasing number of African leaders have embraced.

而尽管没有证据表明有任何一个国家或大洲不存在同性恋、双性恋和变性人（相反的证据倒是汗牛充栋 ） ， 但越来越多的非洲领导人都采取了这一观点。


In 2006, President Olusegun Obasanjo, then Nigeria’s president, was among the first to do so.

2006年，尼日利亚时任总统奥巴桑乔（Olusegun Obasanjo）是第一批接受这一观点的领导人之一。


Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni followed suit when signing the anti-gay bill into law in 2014.

乌干达总统穆塞维尼（Yoweri Museveni）紧随其后，在2014年也签署了反同性恋法案。


Other leaders, from Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh to Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, have spoken in the same vein.

其他领导人，如赞比亚总统贾梅（Yahya Jammeh）和津巴布韦总统穆加贝（Robert Mugabe）也持有相同态度。


These official attitudes have caused significant suffering for Africa’s gays and lesbians.

这些官方态度导致非洲同性恋群体备受伤害。


Indeed, the price of homophobia for gay people in many African countries is painfully clear: legal penalties, social ostracism, and mob justice.

事实上，在许多非洲国家，同性恋厌恶给同性恋群体造成的代价是显而易见的：法律伤害、社会排斥、暴民正义，等等。


But here is what Africa’s anti-gay leaders miss: legal protections are not only a human-rights issue, but also an economic issue.

但这方面正是非洲反同性恋领导人所忽略的：法律保护不仅是一个人权问题，也是一个经济问题。


Kim is exactly right, and research has started measuring the economic costs of homophobia by exploring links between anti-gay sentiment and poverty in countries where laws and social attitudes proscribe same-sex relationships.

金墉的声明是非常正确的，衡量同性恋厌恶的经济成本的研究已经开始，探索法律和社会观念排斥同性关系国家的反同性恋情绪与贫困的关系。


M.V. Lee Badgett, an economist at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, presented the initial findings of a study of the economic implications of homophobia in India at a World Bank meeting in March 2014.

在2014年3月举行的世界银行会议上，麻州大学安姆赫司特（Amherst）分校经济学家巴吉特（M.V. Lee Badgett）展示了关于印度同性恋厌恶的经济影响的初步研究发现。


Badgett estimated that the Indian economy may have lost up to $23.1 billion in 2012 in direct health costs alone, owing to depression, suicide, and HIV treatment disparities caused by anti-gay stigma and discrimination.

巴吉特估计，由于反同性恋羞辱和歧视造成的抑郁、自杀和艾滋病治疗差距，2012年印度经济光是直接健康损失成本就高达231亿美元。


In addition to such concrete costs, being gay can bring violence, job loss, family rejection, harassment in schools, and pressure to marry.

除了这些实实在在的成本，成为同性恋可能带来暴力、失去工作、被家庭排斥、在学校受到骚扰以及结婚压力。


As a result, many gay people have less education, lower productivity, lower earnings, poorer health, and a shorter life expectancy.

结果，许多同性恋教育程度低、生产率差、收入少、健康不良、寿命预期也较短。


In Nigeria, I started the Independent Project for Equal Rights (TIERs) in 2005 to respond to the increasing number of people who were losing their jobs because of suspicions about their sexuality.

在尼日利亚，我在2005年建立了平等权利独立计划（Independent Project for Equal Rights，简称TIGERs ） ， 以应对日益增多的因为性取向受怀疑而丢失工作的人。


During our first year, we provided support for dozens of people.

在该计划成立后的第一年里，我们为几十人提供了支持。


One young man, “Olumide,” was given temporary housing after his family kicked him out for being gay.

其中一位年轻人“奥鲁迈德 ” （ Olumide）因为身为同性恋而被逐出家门，我们为他提供了暂时居所。


Another, “Uche,” was fired from his job as a chef after his sexuality was revealed.

另一位名叫“乌奇 ” （ Uche）的人因为性取向暴露而失去了厨师工作。


TIERs helped him with accommodation and capital to set up a catering business.

TIERS帮他找到容身之所，并提供了做餐饮生意的资本。


Though almost 10 years have passed, it is still not safe to use their real names.

尽管时间已经过去了近10年，他们仍不能安全地使用真名。


Across Africa, the economic costs of discrimination are increasing, in line with growing pressure on employers, landlords, health-care providers, educational institutions, and others to exclude LGBT people.

在整个非洲，歧视的经济成本正在增加，相应地，雇主、地主、医疗服务提供者、家哦哦与机构和其他群体也在排斥同性恋、双性恋和变性人士。


Today, the World Bank and other development agencies are mapping out the global development priorities that will follow the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which officially end in 2015 and included specific targets for promoting gender equality and empowering women as a strategy for economic growth.

如今，世界银行和其他发展机构正在为千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals）之后的发展日程制定优先项。 千年发展目标将于2015年正式结束，其中包括了促进性别平等、将增加妇女权益作为经济增长战略等具体目标。


Looking ahead, the Bank should take the same approach to LGBT rights and make legal protections for sexual orientation and gender identity a condition for countries receiving loans.

放眼未来，世界银行应该对同性恋、双性恋和变性人群体权利采取同样的态度，将对性取向和性别认同的法律保护作为各国获得贷款的条件。


Building recognition of women’s rights into the MDGs did not corrupt African cultures by imposing “Western” values; in fact, it strengthened many African countries, which now lead the world in the representation of women in government.

将承认妇女权利作为千年发展目标之一并没有因为强加“西方”价值而损害非洲文化；事实上，这让许多非洲国家变得更加强大，如今，在女性占政府官员的比重方面它们已经成为全球领先者。


By pursuing similar protections for LGBT people, international investment and aid can improve economic performance and strengthen respect for basic human rights.

国际投资和援助可以通过为同性恋、双性恋和变性人群体争取同样的保护改善经济表现、强化对基本人权的尊重。


The World Bank, always wary of entangling itself in “political” questions, emphasizes that it is not a global human-rights enforcer.

世界银行总是担心自己牵涉“政治”问题，强调它不是一个全球人权推广机构。


But it also increasingly recognizes its own role as a facilitator in helping Bank members realize their human-rights obligations.

但它也日益承认其在帮助世行成员国认识到自身人权义务方面的促进作用。


LGBT rights should be a test case.

同性恋、双性恋和变性人权利应该成为对世行的考验。


Aid to governments that permit specific social groups to be ostracized can carry very real economic costs.

对允许排斥特定社会群体的政府的援助可能造成非常现实的经济代价。


As new loans are considered, steps should be taken to ensure that the benefits are as inclusive as possible.

在考虑新贷款时，应该采取措施确保让其收益尽可能具有包容性。


If the Bank – which currently lends Nigeria almost $5.5 billion and expects to commit an additional $2 billion in each of the next four years – moved in this direction, other funders might follow.

目前，世界银行对尼日利亚贷款大约在55亿美元，预计还将承诺在未来四年每年增加20亿美元。 世界银行正在朝这一方向前进，其他资金提供者可以跟进。


Africa’s LGBT people desperately need such powerful allies in their struggle for human and economic rights.

非洲的同性恋、双性恋和变性人群体急切地需要在人权和经济权利的斗争中获得这些强大的盟军。


A Democratic Burma?

民主缅甸？


TOKYO – Historic transformations often happen when least expected.

东京 — — 历史转型的发生总是出人意料的。


Mikhail Gorbachev’s liberalizing policies of glasnost and perestroika in the Soviet Union emerged at one of the Cold War’s darkest hours, with US President Ronald Reagan pushing for strategic missile defense and the two sides fighting proxy wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere.

在冷战正酣的时候，戈尔巴乔夫在苏联推出了改革与新思维的自由化政策，而美国总统里根推出了战略导弹防御系统，并在阿富汗和其他地区的实施双边战争代理人战争。


Deng Xiaoping’s economic opening followed China’s bloody – and failed – invasion of Vietnam in 1978.

邓小平的经济开放政策是在1978年中国对越南的血腥入侵（以失败告终）之后推行的。


And South Africa’s last apartheid leader, F. W. de Klerk, was initially perceived as just another apologist for the system – hardly the man to free Nelson Mandela and oversee the end of white minority rule.

而南非的末代种族隔离领导人德克拉克一开始被普遍认为只是旧体制的又一个捍卫者，几乎无人想到他会释放曼德拉并结束少数白人的统治。


Now the world is suddenly asking whether Burma (Myanmar), after six decades of military dictatorship, has embarked on a genuine political transition that could end the country’s pariah status.

现在，世界突然对缅甸产生了疑问，在60年的军事独裁之后，缅甸真的将开始走向终结该国贱民地位的实质性政治转型了吗？


Is Burma, like South Africa under de Klerk, truly poised to emerge from a half-century of self-imposed isolation?

缅甸会像德克拉克的南非一样，真正从半个世纪的自我封闭中走出来吗？


And can Aung San Suu Kyi, the heroic opposition leader, and Thein Sein, Burma’s new president, engineer a political transition as skillfully and peacefully as Mandela and de Klerk did for South Africa in the early 1990’s?

反对派的英雄领导人昂山素季和新任缅甸总统登盛能像20世纪90年代初曼德拉和德克拉克在南非那样推行巧妙而和平的政治转型吗？


Despite her two decades of house arrest and isolation, Suu Kyi possesses two of the gifts that enabled Mandela to carry out his great task: a reassuring serenity and an utter lack of vindictiveness.

尽管昂山素季经历了20年的软禁和隔离，但仍具有让曼德拉完成伟大成就的两大素质：心止如水和悲天悯人。


As Burma’s authorities test reform, these gifts, together with her negotiating skills and, most of all, her vast moral authority, will be tested as never before.

随着缅甸当局开始改革检验，这些素质和她的谈判技能 — — 以及最重要的，她在道德上的居高临下 — — 一起，将受到前所未有的考验。


Moreover, unlike Mandela during his 27-year imprisonment, Suu Kyi has had her hopes raised – and dashed – before.

除此以外，与曼德拉的27年铁窗生涯不同，昂山素季曾经有过燃起希望并几乎成功的经历。


In the mid-1990’s, and again in 2002-2003, reconciliation between Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and the military junta seemed to be in the offing.

在20世纪90年代中期以及2002—2003年间，昂山素季的国家民主联盟和军政当局几乎要形成妥协了。


On both occasions, however, the regime’s hardliners gained the upper hand, crushing prospects for reform.

但是，最终体制内的强硬派占了上风，扼杀了改革希望。


Yet Suu Kyi, and much of the Burmese opposition, is beginning to admit that today’s political liberalization might be the real thing.

但昂山素季以及大部分缅甸反对派均开始承认，今天的政治自由化可能是来真的。


Because Burma’s generals say almost nothing in public, it is difficult to fathom why they allowed elections that elevated Thein Sein to power, or to explain their willingness to embrace dialogue with the long-suppressed opposition.

由于缅甸的将军们在公开场合几乎总是缄口不言，因此很难看出他们为何会容许把登盛推上权力宝座的选举发生，也很难解释为什么他们愿意与被长期镇压的反对派展开对话。


Recent events suggest one possible explanation: Burma’s rulers have grown wary of China’s almost smothering embrace – a result of the country’s international isolation.

最近的事件显示了一种可能的解释：缅甸的当权者开始担心令人窒息的把持 — — 而这又是该国国际孤立的结果。


Indeed, public protests against China’s commercial exploitation of Burma’s natural resources became so widespread that the government called a halt to construction by Chinese investors on the huge and environmentally damaging Myitsone Dam on the Irrawaddy River.

事实上，缅甸公众反对中国对缅甸自然资源的商业开发已成燎原之势，以至于政府不得不叫停中国投资者可能造成严重环境破坏的瓦底江密松大坝项目。


Thein Sein’s decision to halt the project is clearly an important policy shift.

登盛叫停密松大坝项目的决定显然是一个清晰的政策转向信号。


It is also a signal to the outside world that Burma’s new government may be much more willing than any of its predecessors to heed both public pressure and international opinion, both of which vehemently opposed the dam’s construction.

此外，这还向外界表明，缅甸新政府要比其所有前任都更加愿意关心公众压力和国际舆论 — — 这两样均强烈反对大坝的建设。


Almost simultaneously, Thein Sein offered even stronger signals that his was a very different Burmese administration: he freed political prisoners and invited Suu Kyi for direct talks with him.

几乎是在同时，登盛还给出了一个更加强烈的信号，表明这一届政府是一个完全不同的政府：他释放了一批政治犯，并邀请昂山素季和他展开直接对话。


Indeed, Suu Kyi now enjoys far greater freedom of movement than she has at any time since she received the Nobel Peace Prize 20 years ago, and the NLD recently announced that it will field candidates in the forthcoming by-elections to the country’s newly established parliament.

事实上，如今昂山素季过着她20年前获得诺贝尔和平奖以来最自由的生活，国家民主联盟最近宣称，该组织将推举即将到来的新议会候补选举候选人。


If Suu Kyi is permitted to campaign free of restraint, for both her own seat and to boost the electoral chances of her NLD colleagues, it will be clear that Thein Sein and his government are truly determined to bring their country in from the cold.

不管昂山素季还是她的国家民主联盟同志，能够自由参选无疑表明登盛及其政府真心实意地想让缅甸走出铁幕。


For both Suu Kyi and Thein Sein, every step from now on will be delicate, to be calibrated with the same care and deliberation that Mandela and de Klerk used in bridging their differences and leading their country out of isolation.

对昂山素季和登盛来说，从现在开始的每一步都将如履薄冰，人们将用曼德拉和德克拉克拨乱反正、将祖国带出孤立状态的自由化举措来要求他们。


But the international community, too, must act with great care.

但国际社会也必须小心行事。


While Thein Sein would undoubtedly wish to see the myriad economic and political sanctions imposed on Burma quickly lifted, it is too soon for a general easing of such measures.

毫无疑问，登盛愿意看见施加于缅甸的大量经济和政治制裁迅速被取消，但现在就放松制裁还为时过早。


But the outside world should demonstrate that every clear move toward greater political openness will merit more international political and economic engagement.

不过，外部世界应该表明态度：任何朝增进政治开放方向的进步都会得到国际政治和经济回报。


The Japan Investment Bank’s decision to invest in port development in Burma – essential if the economy, too, is to be opened – is one positive sign that the world will keep pace with Thein Sein step for step.

日本投资银行决定投资缅甸的港口开发 — — 如果缅甸经济也开放的话，这将是很重要的 — — 这是一个积极的信号，表明世界对于登盛的每一次进步都会投桃报李。


And US President Barack Obama’s decision to send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma to meet Thein Sein is another clear sign that the world is ready to end the country’s isolation.

美国总统奥巴马决定派国务卿希拉里·克林顿前往缅甸会晤登盛是另一个信号，表明世界时刻准备着结束缅甸的孤立状态。


Closer to home, ASEAN’s recent decision to give Burma a chance to chair the organization in 2014 underscores its neighbors’ desire for the country’s full participation in Asia’s growing prosperity.

在近邻方面，东盟最近决定将2014年的主席国地位授予缅甸，这表明邻国也渴望缅甸完全融入亚洲的日渐繁荣。