As far as we know, Kundera never was an informer before or after this incident, and we cannot ignore that he later freed himself from the compulsory totalitarian happiness that communism propagated.

据我们所知，昆德拉在这起事件之前或之后从未做过告密者，并且我们不能忘记的是他后来从共产主义所散布的强制的极权主义幸福中逃离了出来。


Indeed, his case also serves as a reminder that the early 1950’s was the most brutal period of “proletarian dictatorship” in Eastern Europe – a period of great enthusiasm and terrible fear that poisoned the minds and souls of devoted believers, fierce opponents, and apathetic bystanders alike.

事实上，他的这件事还让人想起了二十世纪五十年代初是东欧“无产阶级专政”最最残酷的时期，这一时期巨大的热情和可怕的恐惧毒害了虔诚的信仰者、激烈的反对派以及麻木不仁的旁观者的思想和灵魂。


Moreover, Kundera’s case is hardly unique.

此外，昆德拉事件远远不是独此一例。


In 2006, the Nobel Prize-winning German author Günter Grass’s disclosed that, 60 years earlier, he was, as a teenager, a member of the Waffen-SS.

2006年，诺贝尔奖获得者德国作家君特·格拉斯被揭露在60年前，当他还是一个十几岁的孩子的时候，曾是武装党卫队的成员。


Similarly, a few years ago, the world was shocked to learn that famous Italian writer Ignazio Silone had, in his youth, collaborated with the fascist police.

同样地，在几年以前，世界震惊地发现著名的意大利作家纳齐奥·西隆尼在年青的时候曾与法西斯警察勾结。


Daily life under totalitarianism, be it communist or fascist, was routinely based on a deep duplicity whose effects are longstanding.

每天生活在极权统治下，不管是共产主义还是法西斯统治，常常都会陷于深深的双重性中，而这种影响将会是非常深远的。


I don’t agree with those who say we should not be interested in the dark episodes in the life of a great writer.

我不同意那些认为我们不应该对一位伟大作家在黑暗时期的生活感兴趣的说法。


Why not?

为什么不呢？


We should be interested not for prosecutorial purposes, but in order to gain a more profound understanding of a bloody, demagogical, and tyrannical Utopia – and of human weakness and vulnerability. We may even consider it a rewarding testament to an artist’s ability to overcome his past mistakes and still produce priceless work.

我们之所以感兴趣不是为了揭发他，而是为了对一个血腥、蛊惑民心和专制的乌托邦以及人的弱点和脆弱性有更深的理解。 我们甚至可以认为这是对一位艺术家战胜他过去所犯的错误然后依旧推出宝贵作品的能力的有回报的验证。


But can we justifiably defend morally compromised artists and intellectuals on the basis of their work’s merit, yet condemn ordinary people for often less grave offenses?

但是我们是否应该因为他们作品的伟大而无可非议地为那些在道义上妥协的艺术家和知识分子辩解，然而却因为没那么严重的错误而谴责普通的人呢？


An egregious example of this was the way followers of Romanian philosopher Constantin Noica defended his support for the fascist Iron Guard and his later collaboration with the Communists, while at the same time condemning even a generic cleaning woman for mopping the floors in the offices of the secret police.

在这方面一个突出的例子是罗马尼亚哲学家康斯坦丁·诺恰卡的追随者为他支持法西斯铁卫团以及后来与共产党勾结进行辩解，然而与此同时却对甚至只是在秘密警察的办公室拖地板的普通清洁女工大加指责。


Shouldn’t that cleaner’s drudgery to support her family, children, and her own survival be taken equally into account?

那位清洁工为了她的家庭、孩子以及她自己的生存而去做苦工难道不应该同样考虑进去吗？


Life under totalitarianism was an extreme situation that requires us to apply special, nuanced rules to all the captives of that ordeal.

极权主义统治下的生活是一种极端的状况，它要求我们对所有深受其折磨的受害者都适用特殊的、有细微差别的规则。


In order to understand that epoch, we have to know and carefully judge often ambiguous and overwhelming circumstances, never simplifying a multilayered daily reality for the sake of current political goals.

为了理解这一时代，我们必须了解和慎重地判断常常是模糊并且压倒一切的环境，千万不要为了当前的政治目的而把多层面的每天现实的生活简单化。


If nothing else, in order to forgive, we have to know what we are forgiving.

不为别的，哪怕只是为了原谅，我们也必须知道我们原谅的什么。


In Eastern Europe today, old and young alike stand to benefit from that lesson.

在今天的东欧，年长和年青的人都从那个教训中受益。


Moses wandered with his people in the desert for 40 years, until they had rid themselves of the poisonous slave mentality.

摩西和他的百姓曾在沙漠里徘徊了40年，直到他们去除了他们自己有害的奴隶心态。


The Albanian Miracle

阿尔巴尼亚奇迹


TIRANA – Five years ago, Albania faced a truly ominous situation.

发自地拉那 — — 就在五年前，阿尔巴尼亚还在面临着极为危急的局面。


With Greece and Italy reeling from the euro crisis, remittances and capital inflows were falling and the economy suffered a severe slowdown.

由于希腊和意大利遭遇欧元危机，导致该国侨汇和资本流入双双下降，经济严重放缓。


The fiscal deficit ballooned to over 7% of GDP, financed to a large extent by arrears, as access to external financial markets had collapsed and domestic interest rates were sky high.

财政赤字激增至GDP的7％以上，同时进入外部金融市场的渠道崩溃且国内利率高涨，财政在很大程度上只能靠欠款维持。


In addition, the power distribution company was in both an operational and a financial crisis, unable to pay for the electricity that it was supposed to buy from power generation companies.

此外该国的配电企业也处于运营和金融的双重危机之中，因为它无法支付本应从发电企业处购买的电力。


The arrears of both the government and the power company were fueling an increase in non-performing loans in the banking system.

政府和电力公司的拖欠行为导致银行体系中不良贷款大幅增加。


All the ingredients of a catastrophic outcome were there.

这简直是把一场灾难的所有成因都集齐了。


Fast-forward to the present: the economy is growing at a robust 4.2% rate, led by double-digit export growth in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, energy, tourism, and business services.

现在让我们快进到当前：在农业，采矿业，制造业，能源，旅游业和商业服务业分别实现两位数出口增长的带领之下，阿尔巴尼亚经济正以4.2％的强劲势头增长。


At a time when emerging-market economies as diverse as Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, and South Africa face plummeting currencies and rising interest rates, Albania has its lowest interest rates on record and a strengthening currency.

在阿根廷、土耳其，尼日利亚和南非等各不相同的新兴市场经济体都面临着本币汇率暴跌和利率上升之时，阿尔巴尼亚的利率正处于是有史以来最低水平且本币持续升值。


It now has the lowest sovereign spread for any country in its rating class, indicating that markets think the rating agencies have been asleep at the wheel.

该国现在的主权利差在其同一评级等级国家中最低的，表明市场认为评级机构显然太过粗心大意了。


Once the North Korea of Europe under Communist dictator Enver Hoxha, Albania’s per capita income level is now 25% that of Germany.

作为曾经遭遇共产主义独裁者恩维尔·霍查（Enver Hoxha）统治的欧洲朝鲜，阿尔巴尼亚的人均收入水平现在相当于德国的25 ％ 。


If it can maintain its current growth rate, it will reach Germany’s current income in 32 years.

如能够保持目前的增长率，它将在32年后达到德国的当前收入水平。


At a time when economists are being blamed for all sorts of disappointing outcomes, and multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are accused of failing to advise countries properly, it is refreshing to find that they may not be entirely useless after all.

在经济学家因各种令人沮丧的事件而备受指责，而国际货币基金组织和世界银行等多边机构也被批评未能向各国提供恰当建议之时，阿尔巴尼亚令人眼前一亮，让人觉得这些任何机构还是有点用的。 。


What was the secret of Albania’s turnaround?

那么阿尔巴尼亚的转变秘诀是什么呢？


First, as opposed to many countries that delay action until it is too late, Prime Minister Edi Rama called in the IMF as soon as he got into power in September 2013.

首先，在许多国家拖延推诿以致延误时机之时，总理埃迪·拉玛在2013年9月上台后立即致电国际货币基金组织。


His government then negotiated a program that allowed Albania to gain financial support while it was putting its fiscal house in order.

他的政府随后通过谈判达成一项让阿尔巴尼亚可以在整顿本国财政秩序的同时获得财政支持的计划。


The three-year program ended successfully almost two years ago, and the debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trend.

这项为期三年的计划大约在两年前成功结束，债务与GDP的比率依然保持下降趋势。


This year, it is declining by 2.5% of GDP, while the country is significantly expanding its public investment budget.

今年该数值又下降了2.5 ％ ， 即使该国正在大幅扩大其公共投资预算。


To be able to grow in the midst of fiscal consolidation, something else has to pull the economy forward, typically exports.

为了能够在财政整顿过程中实现增长，就需要利用其他因素 — — 特别是出口 — — 去拉动经济。


And exports are growing in Albania – where I have been leading a Harvard Center for International Development research effort since 2013 – not because of good luck, but thanks to a relentless effort to remove bottlenecks and seize opportunities.

自2013年以来一直领导哈佛大学国际发展研究中心阿尔巴尼亚研究项目的经验告诉我：这个国家的出口增长并不是因为运气，而是因为人们在不遗余力地消除瓶颈并抓住机遇。


In the process, Albania eschewed the temptation to focus on general Doing Business indicators, which assume that randomly following international best practices might do some good.

在这一过程中，阿尔巴尼亚避开了集中关注某些通用性营商环境指标的诱惑，这些指标假设随机选定并遵循某些国际最佳实践就能收获某些成果。


Instead, the authorities followed a diagnostic approach to prioritize their policies.

相反，当局采用了一种诊断式手段来确定其政策的优先顺序。


Mentored by Matt Andrews of Harvard Kennedy School of Government, policymakers used an implementation strategy based on a problem-driven iterative process, which starts by nominating a problem, identifying its causes, and devising ways to fix it.

在哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授马特·安德鲁斯（Matt Andrews）的指导下，政策制定者使用了一个基于问题驱动型迭代进程的实施策略，该进程首先提出问题，然后确定问题成因并设计修复方式。


This led to many ideas that proved to be powerful.

这种做法催生了许多被证明是极为有效的点子。


In agriculture, the development of aggregators helped small farmers connect to better technologies and more lucrative markets, creating a boom in vegetable exports.

在农业方面，信心汇集企业的发展帮助农民获取先进技术并连接利润更为丰厚的市场，从而创造了蔬菜出口的繁荣。


In the power sector, the government adopted an unorthodox strategy to change citizens’ behavior regarding electricity theft and non-payment, which led in 2015 to a turnaround of almost 2% of GDP in the distribution company’s cash flow.

在电力部门，政府使用了一种非常规的策略去改变民众的电力盗窃和欠款行为，使得2015年配电公司现金流量转变到相当于GDP近2％的水平。


Likewise, consultative groups in manufacturing and tourism identified areas for improvement.

同样，制造业和旅游业的咨询小组也确定了需要改进的领域。


Albania has invested in the recovery of its historic cities and is now investing in 100 villages with strong agro-tourism potential that happen to be in areas that are both poor and pristine.

阿尔巴尼亚正在投资修复本国那些历史悠久的城市，目前还针对100个具备强大农业旅游潜力但恰好位于贫穷原始地区的村庄投资。


No wonder that tourism is growing at double-digit rates.

难怪旅游业实现了两位数的增长。


Moreover, the country’s ambassadors are now being used in a concerted strategy to promote foreign investment through direct engagement with firms.

此外，该国的众多驻外大使现正采取协调一致的战略，通过直接接触企业来促进外国投资。


And policymakers are now engaging Albania’s diaspora – found to be an important source of talent, investment, market opportunities, and business ideas – to great effect.

政策制定者们如今正在引导阿尔巴尼亚侨民去发挥重要作用 — — 因为他们是人才、投资，市场机会和商业创意的重要来源。


The innovations have not been only at the national level.

这些创新不仅停留在国家层面。


Erion Veliaj, the mayor of Tirana, has tripled municipal revenues since he took over in 2015 and used the proceeds in ways that have made the city one of the most pleasant in the region.

地拉那市市长埃里昂·维利亚（Erion Veliaj）自2015年上任以来已将市政收入增加了两倍，并将收益用于使该市成为该地区最令人愉悦的城市之一。


Albania’s capital has won European awards for its development of high-quality urban spaces and for solving mobility and environmental problems in innovative ways.

阿尔巴尼亚的首都因其高质量的城市空间开发并以创新方式解决人员流动和环境问题而赢得了多个欧洲大奖。


The lessons for other countries are clear.

对于其他国家来说阿尔巴尼亚的教益相当明确。


Success in the face of difficulties happens when governments are conscious of their predicament and their weaknesses, can articulate and own their goals, and search relentlessly for ways to achieve their aspirations.

如果要在艰难境地下取得成功，政府意识到自身困境和弱点，能够清晰描绘和制定自身目标并不断寻求实现愿望的方法。


In this process, countries are not alone.

在这个过程中每个国家都不是在孤军奋斗。


The system of international financial assistance led by the IMF and the development-finance institutions can be very helpful.

由国际货币基金组织以及各个发展金融机构牵头的国际金融援助体系都可以伸出援手。


But countries must figure out when and how best to use them.

但各国必须弄清楚何时以及如何最好地利用它们。


They can enhance government capacity but cannot substitute for government commitment.

它们可以增强政府的能力，但不能取代政府的承诺。


The lesson for the European Union is also clear: when thinking about accession countries like Albania and the rest of the Western Balkans, it is important to look not only at what these countries are or have been, but also at the zeal with which they act in order to become what they aspire to be.

欧盟在此得到教益也很清晰：在考虑将阿尔巴尼亚以及其他西巴尔干国家吸收入盟时，重要的是不仅要关注这些国家的状况，还要关注它们为了实现自身理想而采取行动的热情。


For much of its history, Albania looked hopeless.

在其历史的大部分时间里，阿尔巴尼亚看起来毫无希望。


But hopeless is as hopeless does.

但绝望本身也是不可能永远存续下去的。


Now Albania’s turnaround is a source of hope for the rest of us.

如今阿尔巴尼亚的转变已经成为了我们其他人的希望之源。


Toward a More Reflective Planet

增加地球反射性


CAMBRIDGE – The last time the atmosphere held as much carbon dioxide as it does today was about three million years ago – a time when sea levels were 10-30 meters higher than they are now.

坎布里奇—大气层上一次含二氧化碳量与今天一样多大约出现在三百万年前 — — 当时的海平面比今天高10—30米。


Climate models have long struggled to duplicate those large fluctuations in sea levels – until now.

长期以来，气候模型一直努力复制着海平面的大幅波动 — — 直至目前。


Indeed, for the first time, a high-quality model of Antarctic ice and climate has been able to simulate these large swings.

事实上，历史上第一次，一个高质量的南极冰和气候模型能够模拟这些大波动。


That is smart science, but it brings devastating news.

这是智能科学，但它带来的是灾难性的消息。


The new model shows that melting in Antarctica alone could increase global sea levels by as much as one meter (3.2 feet) by the end of this century – well above prior estimates.

新模型显示，光是南极融化就可以让全球海平面在本世纪末上升足足一米 — — 远高于先前的估计。


Worse, it suggests that even extraordinary success at cutting emissions would not save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, locking in eventual sea-level increases of more than five meters.

更糟糕的是，模型表明，即使减排工作取得卓越的成功，也无法拯救西南极洲冰原，最终的海平面上升幅度将超过五米。


As little as one meter could put at risk entire cities, from Miami to Mumbai, and cause enormous economic disruption.

海平面升高区区一米就可以让从迈阿密到孟买面临全城被淹的危险，并导致巨大的经济破坏。


We need to turn down the heat – and fast.

我们需要降低温度 — — 并且速度要快。


To this end, albedo modification – a kind of geoengineering intended to cool the planet by increasing the reflectivity of the earth’s atmosphere – holds tremendous promise.

在这方面，改变反射率 — — 一种旨在通过增加地球大气层反射性的地理工程 — — 大有可为。


Injecting synthetic aerosols that reflect sunlight into the stratosphere, for example, could help counter the warming caused by greenhouse gases.

比如，注入可将太阳光反射进入平流层的人工气溶胶有助于遏制温室气体带来的变暖。


The mechanism is similar to wearing a white shirt in the summer: white reflects sunlight and cools what is underneath, whereas darker colors absorb sunlight and heat.

其中的机理类似于夏天穿白衬衫：白色反射太阳光，让下面的东西更凉爽；而深色吸收太阳光并升温。


To be sure, even in the best-case scenario, solar geoengineering alone could not stabilize the world’s climate.

诚然，即使在最佳情景中，仅仅依靠太阳能地理工程也无法稳定世界气候。


For that, we must both stop pumping carbon pollution into the atmosphere and learn how to remove what is already there.

对此，我们必须一面停止向大气层排放碳污染，一面学会如何去除已经存在于大气层中的碳。


That is why emissions cuts should receive the lion’s share of resources devoted to combating climate change.

这便是应该将用于遏制气候变化的资源大部分用于减排的原因。


But, as the recent study shows, emissions cuts alone cannot save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and prevent a drastic sea-level rise.

但是，最新研究表明光是减排无法拯救西南极洲冰原和防止海平面灾难性上升。


If they are pursued in conjunction with moderate albedo modification, however, there is a chance of halting rising temperatures, helping to keep the world under 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the more ambitious target agreed at the Paris climate talks last December.

但是，如果在减排的同时略微改变反射率，就有机会停止气温上升，有助于将世界奇闻保持在前工业化水平以上1.5℃以内，亦即去年12月巴黎气候谈判上所达成的更激进的目标。


(It should be noted that, given carbon-cycle feedbacks, such as the thawing of permafrost, there is a chance that the world would face a 1.5°C rise, even if emissions were eliminated today.)

（应该指出，考虑到碳循环反馈（如冻土解冻 ） ， 即使今天就消灭排放，世界温度上升幅度仍可能达到1.5℃。 ）


Most of the world’s state-of-the-art climate models have explored albedo modification, and each of them has found that the process does have the potential to mitigate climate change.

如今，全世界大部分最新气候模型都探索了改变反射率的问题，并且都发现该过程确实有遏制气候变化的潜力。


Beyond limiting total warming, it can help to check the rise in peak temperatures, decreasing the risk of destructive heat waves.

除了限制升温总幅度，它还有助于遏制峰值温度的上升，降低破坏性热浪的风险。


And it seems to be particularly effective at reducing extreme rainfall, which holds profound implications for minimizing flood damage.

并且它在减少极端降雨方面似乎特别有效，这极有利于洪水危害最小化。


Albedo modification remains uncertain and risky, owing partly to a dearth of organized research into the subject.

改变反射率仍充满不确定性和风险性，部分是因为这方面的有组织研究太少。


And, in fact, albedo modification would undoubtedly make some things worse.

而事实上，改变反射率毫无疑问会让某些东西变得更糟。


But there is not a single climate model run that shows that a moderate intervention would make any region worse off overall.

但没有一个气候模型表明，略作干预会让任何地区总体恶化。


Moreover, the large potential upside, measured in trillions of dollars, contrasts with low direct costs – in the single-digit billions for full-scale deployment.

此外，巨大的潜在收益（高达亿万美元级别）与低廉的直接成本 — — 全部部署也只需要几十亿美元 — — 对比鲜明。


In fact, albedo modification is so cheap that direct costs will not be the deciding issue.

事实上，改变反射率非常廉价，其直接成本根本不会成为决定性问题。


Instead, it is a risk-risk trade-off – one that will require more research to assess.

相反，这是一个风险-风险权衡 — — 需要更多的研究来进行评估。


Given the lack of knowledge, no sensible person would push for deploying albedo modification today.

考虑到这方面知识的不足，明智之士绝不会在今天部署改变反射率。


But it would make no sense to ignore its potential.

但绝不应该忽略它的潜力。


After all, no one would argue that we should abandon research on a promising cancer drug because it is unproven.

毕竟，没人会认为我们应该因为没有得到证实而放弃一种很有希望的癌症药物。


The US National Academy of Sciences first called attention to what it then described as “climate modification” in a 1983 report.

美国科学院（US National Academy of Sciences）首次关注该问题是在一份1983的报告中，当时将该问题称为“气候改造 ” 。


It recommended careful research in 1992 and again in 2015.

1992年和2015年，美国科学院建议进行仔细研究。


Major environmental groups such as the Environmental Defense Fund and the Natural Resources Defense Council support careful, small-scale research.

主要环境组织，如环境保护基金（Environmental Defense Fund）和自然资源保护委员会（Natural Resources Defense Council ） ， 都支持仔细的小范围研究。


Yet no such program exists.

但这些项目并不存在。


One reason for this is concern about the diversion of resources from other approaches.

一个原因是担心其他方法的资源因此被分散。


And, of course, there are tradeoffs.

当然，也有权衡问题。


But the US, for example, has an annual climate science budget of around $3 billion.

但（比如）美国每年气候科学预算有30亿美元左右。


An exploratory solar geoengineering program, costing only a few tens of millions of dollars per year, is entirely feasible.

一个太阳能地理工程实验项目每年只需要花费几千万美元，是完全可行的。


A larger obstacle to progress is fear that more attention to geoengineering solutions would sap motivation to cut emissions.

阻碍进步的更大障碍是担心更多地关注地理工程解决方案不利于减排激励。


Maybe so, but it would be barking mad to take up smoking simply because an experimental cancer treatment showed some promise on a lab rat.

也许如此，但如果你仅仅因为一项实验性癌症治疗方法在小白鼠身上出现了令人欣喜的效果就开始抽烟，那你一定是疯了。


And, in fact, it is conceivable that a concerted effort to advance research on albedo modification could spur action to cut emissions, much like a graphic look at the side effects of chemotherapy prompts some to stop smoking.

而事实上，可以想象推进改变反射率的研究共同努力能够刺激减排行动，就像化疗副作用的照片促使一些人戒烟那样。


Whichever reaction prevails, the moral imperative to explore a technology that can protect the poorest and most vulnerable this century would seem to trump amorphous concerns that doing so could weaken the incentive to pursue solutions that would largely benefit future generations.

不管出现那种反应，探索能在本世纪保护最贫穷、最脆弱群体的技术的道德使命似乎要胜过关于这样做可能削弱探索能给子孙后代带来巨大好处的解决办法的激励的零散担忧。


China has initiated a limited research program on albedo modification.

中国已经启动了一项有限的改变反射率研究项目。


The US has not.

美国还没有。


Given that albedo modification is the kind of technology that necessitates an open, transparent, and international research effort – precisely the kind of effort in which the US excels – this is a serious failing.

改变反射率是开放、透明和国际化的研究措施 — — 这正是美国所擅长的措施 — — 的必不可少的技术，因此，这是严重的失败。


The US government should take the lead now in researching albedo modification.

目前，美国政府应该领衔改变反射率研究。


Even if the result was that albedo modification does not work, the dividends of such research would be enormous, owing to the added pressure to cut emissions.

即使结果表明改变反射率没有用，这些研究所产生的红利也将是巨大的，因为这样能给减排带来更多压力。


And if it turned out to be successful, the social, environmental, and economic returns would be tremendous.

而如果成功，其社会、环境和经济回报将不可限量。


India’s Prohibition Hypocrisy

印度的禁令伪善


NEW DELHI – Last month, 18 people in the Gopalganj district of India’s Bihar state died after consuming illicit alcohol, highlighting – once again – the peculiar relationship between morality and tragedy in India.

新德里—上个月，18位印度比哈尔邦戈帕尔甘杰（Gopalganj）区的人民在饮用假酒后死亡，此事再次突显印度奇怪的道德与悲剧之间的关系。


The victims were poisoned because this April, in a fit of moralism, Bihar adopted a draconian law prohibiting the sale, possession, and consumption of alcohol.

受害者中毒的原因是今年4月比哈尔邦出于道德考虑实施了严苛的法律禁止酒精的销售、拥有和消费。


It is far from the first such ban that has ended badly.

这绝非印度第一宗造成严重后果的禁令。


In a country where the national hero is the saintly Mahatma Gandhi, who considered alcohol an unmitigated evil, drinking has always carried a whiff of disrepute.

在圣雄甘地被视为民族英雄的印度，饮酒一直被视为恶习。 甘地本人认为酒精是十足的恶魔。


India’s constitution, in its non-enforceable Directive Principles, urges Indians to work toward prohibition, and the government does not serve alcohol even at state banquets and official receptions.

印度宪法以不具强制力的指导原则敦促印度人民厉行禁止，政府在国宴和公务接待中也不提供酒精饮料。


Four out of 29 Indian states (Bihar, Gujarat, Manipur, and Nagaland) and one union territory (Lakshadweep or the Laccadive Islands) are currently attempting to enforce total prohibition.

印度29个邦中的四个（比哈尔、古吉拉特、曼尼普尔和那加兰）以及一个直辖区（拉克沙威或拉克代夫群岛）目前都在尝试强制性禁酒令。


But maintaining a sweeping prohibition policy has long proved difficult in India.

但厉行禁止政策在印度向来困难重重。


In Manipur in 2002, the 1991 ban was lifted in five hill districts, where alcohol consumption is a centuries-old local tradition.

2002年，曼普尔邦的1991年禁令在五个有着数百年饮酒风俗的山区被取消。


Lakshadweep makes an exception for an uninhabited island, where a tourist resort is allowed to operate a bar.

拉克沙威的禁酒令也对其中一个岛屿豁免，一处度假区允许经营酒吧。


When I was a child, what was then Bombay excused anyone with a doctor’s note confirming alcoholism.

在我小时候的孟买，如果你被医生判定为醉酒，就可以免于刑罚。


(Well-heeled executives tripped over themselves to be labeled alcoholics.)

（上层人士竞相给自己贴上酗酒者的标签。 ）


The state that best illustrates the appeal and the pitfalls of such moralism is Kerala, which announced in 2014 that it was implementing a partial ban on the sale of alcohol, with the goal of achieving total prohibition in ten years.

最能体现这种道德主义的利弊的邦要数喀拉拉，2014年，喀拉拉邦宣布对酒精销售实施局部禁令，并计划在十年后全民禁酒。


It has been backsliding ever since.

此后该政策日益减弱。


A coastal state, Kerala has long been viewed as a tourist paradise – a reputation no doubt kept afloat on a sea of easily available libations.

喀拉拉邦地处沿海地区，一直是旅游胜地 — — 这一盛名当然建立在想喝就喝的基础上。


Before the ban, Kerala held a somewhat dubious distinction: India’s highest per capita consumption of spirits.

禁令实施前，喀拉拉邦保持着一项可疑的记录：印度最高人均酒精消费量。


But in India, where prohibition is popular among many segments of the electorate, politicians find it particularly difficult to resist the self-righteous urge to improve their fellow citizens.

但在印度，禁令在许多选民细分群体中稀松平常，政客要抵制道貌岸然地敦促改善同胞境况的做法是十分困难的。


So Kerala’s government introduced the ban.

因此，克拉拉邦政府实施了禁令。


And, at first, many approved.

一开始，许多人都赞成。


The influential Christian churches applauded the move, as did the Christian-affiliated political parties.

影响力巨大的基督教会赞赏该政策，受基督教会支持的政党亦然。


Kerala’s Muslim leadership, including the then-ruling coalition’s ally, the Indian Union Muslim League, was equally vocal in its support.

喀拉拉邦的穆斯林领导层，包括时任执政联盟成员印度联合穆斯林同盟（Indian Union Muslim League）也是大力支持。


Working-class women, tired of watching their laborer husbands blow their monthly wages on booze, also welcomed the decision, as did traditionalists, Gandhians, and other moralists, of which India has an abundance.

工人阶级妇女早已对劳工丈夫们将每个月的工资浪费在喝酒上怨声载道，她们也欢迎这一决定，传统论者、甘地派和其他道德主义者也是如此 — — 印度这样的人有很多。


No public figure of any consequence in Kerala stood up to oppose the decision.

在喀拉拉邦，每有一位有影响力的公众人物站出来反对这一决定。


Any politician who might have been inclined to do so knew that they would be instantly tarred as a votary of evil alcohol, an agent of the “liquor mafia,” a bar-loving enemy of good, wholesome Gandhian values.

可能有这样的打算的政客都知道，他们立刻会被批判为万恶的酒精爱好者 、 “ 液体黑手党”代理人、喜欢泡吧的甘地主义公序良俗的敌人。


But there were good reasons to oppose the ban – reasons that had nothing to do with religion, morality, or alcoholism.

但有很好的理由应该反对该禁令 — — 这些理由与宗教、道德或酗酒无关。


Excise duties on liquor account for 22% of the state revenues that sustain generous welfare programs in Kerala, which boasts the best social development indicators in India.

酒精税占喀拉拉邦收入的22 % ， 是维持其慷慨的福利政策的重要支柱，而喀拉拉邦的福利政策被夸赞为印度最佳社会发展指标。


Another 26% of state revenues come from tourism, which would surely also take a hit.

另有26%的邦收入来自旅游业，而旅游业必然会因为禁酒令而遭受重创。


Furthermore, much of Kerala’s economic viability depends on dynamic knowledge and services sectors.

此外，喀拉拉邦的大部分经济活力以来活跃的知识和服务界。


Attracting talent and investment from abroad would become much more difficult if prohibition hampered the state’s quality of life.

如果禁酒令影响到喀拉拉邦的生活质量，吸引海外人才和投资将变得十分困难。


(IT professionals in Bangalore, in the neighboring state Karnataka, flock to that city’s bars and pubs after long hours at work.)

（毗邻的卡纳塔克邦的班加罗尔的IT人才都喜欢在结束了一天漫长的工作后去酒吧小酌一番。 ）


Kerala’s leaders should have known that their state could not afford to do without widely available, heavily taxed liquor.

喀拉拉领导人应该知道，如果不让被课以重税的酒精畅通地流通，本邦收入将大受影响。


But they began to implement the policy anyway.

但他们还是实施了禁酒令。


Almost immediately, 20,000 bar workers and distillery employees lost their jobs, in a state that already struggles with high unemployment.

20,000酒吧和酿酒厂员工几乎在一夜之间失去了工作，而当时的喀拉拉邦已经因为高失业而步履维艰。


Tourism operators were stung by cancelations, as would-be visitors decided to visit Sri Lanka or Goa instead; 50% of existing convention bookings were canceled.

旅游业经营者因为取消行程而遭遇重创，本打算来到喀拉拉邦的游客纷纷决定改去斯里兰卡或果阿；50%的会展预定被取消。


And IT companies contemplating moving to clean, green, tech-friendly Kerala expressed concern about the prohibition policy.

打算迁往干净、绿色、技术友好的喀拉拉邦的IT公司纷纷表示对禁酒政策十分担心。


It was not long before Kerala’s government decided that prohibition would apply only to hard alcohol, and closed bars could reopen as wine and beer parlors.

不久，喀拉拉邦政府决定禁酒令只对烈酒有效，已经关门的酒吧可以重新开张，销售葡萄酒和啤酒。


But that was not enough to save the government in June’s state election, which produced a new communist administration that, advocating education about the evils of alcohol instead of a ban, has promised to review the prohibition policy.

但这不足以拯救政府在6月邦选举中的命运，在选举中上台的共产党政府支持酒精是魔鬼的教育，而不实施禁酒令，承诺重新评估禁酒政策。


So Kerala is no longer hurtling toward disaster in the name of saving people from themselves.

于是，喀拉拉邦不再打着从人民自己手中拯救人民的旗号走向灾难了。


But it never should have gone as far as it did, given experience with prohibition in other states, where falling revenues and rising crime (including smuggling, tax evasion, and illicit liquor production) forced its revocation.

但它根本不必走到收入下降、犯罪（包括走私、逃税和生产假酒）增加这一步才被迫废除禁令 — — 其他邦的禁令都是可供借鉴的教训。


Four states – Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Mizoram, and Tamil Nadu – have repealed prohibition policies.

有四个邦 — — 安德拉、哈里亚纳、米佐拉姆和泰米尔纳德 — — 都已经废除了禁令政策。


To be sure, not everyone loses out from a prohibition policy.

诚然，并非所有人都因为禁令政策而受损。


When Kerala first announced its plans, neighboring Tamil Nadu’s alcoholic beverages corporation, TASMAC, promptly declared its intention to open a string of new outlets along the states’ border, to cater to the demands of Keralite consumers.

喀拉拉邦第一次宣布禁酒令计划时，毗邻的泰米尔纳德邦酒精饮料生产商TASMAC立刻宣布准备在两邦交界处开设一批新店铺，以迎合喀拉拉邦消费者的需求。


In other words, excise duties from Kerala would now fill Tamil Nadu’s coffers.

换句话说，喀拉拉邦的酒税现在落入了泰米尔拉德邦的金库中。


Banning alcohol in India has been economically devastating.

在印度，禁酒一直是经济上的灾难。


Yet politicians continue to use the promise of prohibition to win votes.

但政客仍然在用禁令承诺赢得选票。


When elections were called in Tamil Nadu early this year, its chief minister declared herself in favor of prohibition.

今年年初，泰米尔拉德邦举行选举的时候，其首席部长宣布自己支持禁令。


After the election was won, however, all such talk discreetly subsided.

但是，赢得选举后这些话被小心地回避了。


My late father liked to say: “India is not only the world’s largest democracy; we are also the world’s largest hypocrisy.”

先父常言 ： “ 印度不但是世界上最大的民主国家；我们也是世界上最大的伪善者。


I suppose we can drink to that.

”我觉得我们可以把这句话一饮而尽。


Leaders for a Leaderless World

领导缺乏领袖的世界


PARIS – The newspaper commentaries that I write often have a dark perspective.

巴黎 — — 我写的新闻评论往往从阴暗的角度出发。


Sadly, this one will be no different.

可悲的是这一篇也不会例外。


But there are two pieces of good news that break through the gloom.

但却有两则好消息能够冲破黑暗。


First, the global significance of US President Barack Obama’s reelection is clear: the world has escaped a disaster for international cooperation.

首先，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马再度当选发出了明确的信号：世界已经躲过了一场国际合作劫难。


The US was on the verge of sinking into isolationist nationalism, reinforced, perhaps, by xenophobic sentiment.

美国已经处在孤立民族主义的边缘，仇外情绪或许进一步强化了这种现状。


Obama’s victory, despite America’s economic travails, clears the way for cooperation based on a sympathetic ear to others and on negotiations in which the US does not deny the legitimacy of a global public interest (as it has done, unfortunately, on the issue of climate change).

尽管美国的经济劫难依然没有过去，但奥巴马的获胜却用充满同情的聆听和美国对全球公共利益合法性的认可开辟了合作的光明大道（美国在气候变化问题上就遗憾地对全球公共利益采取视而不见的态度 ） 。


The other piece of good news concerns France, and thus is more “local,” but is crucially important nonetheless.

另一条好消息因为关乎法国而更有“地方性 ” ， 但其重要性却毫不逊色。


Like everywhere else in the developed world, the global crisis has hit the French economy hard, with output stagnating, unemployment rising, job insecurity mounting, government debt soaring, and the stock market at risk of crashing.

像发达世界其他国家一样，金融危机严重打击了法国经济，导致生产停滞、失业率升高、就业不确定性上升、政府债务飙升，股市也面临崩溃的危险。


Manufacturing production has plummeted, the trade balance has deteriorated sharply, and corporate bankruptcies are increasingly frequent.

制造业生产大幅下降、贸易收支急剧恶化，越来越多的企业濒临破产。


For six months, France has had new leadership – a new president, government, and parliament.

六个月前，法国有了全新领导班子 — — 新总统、新政府和新议会。


But President François Hollande and his government were strangely inactive after the elections, limiting themselves to reducing the impact of unfair budget cuts and taxation reforms implemented by the previous government of Nicolas Sarkozy.

但总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德及其政府在当选后不可思议地行动迟缓，除了消解前任萨科齐政府所实施的不公平预算削减及税收改革产生的影响之外几乎别无所长。


Many began to wonder whether Hollande was aware of the scope of the crisis that the recent downturn might trigger.

许多人开始怀疑奥朗德是否对不久前经济衰退可能引发的危机规模有着清醒的认识。


In recent weeks, however, the government has introduced energetic and courageous measures to boost the competitiveness of French industries, including a huge €20 billion ($26 billion) tax break for businesses, to be financed by a hike in value-added tax, which means that the general public will pay for it.

不过近几周政府已经积极勇敢地推进政策来提高法国企业的竞争力，包括面向企业推出200亿欧元（合260亿美元）的巨额减税计划，减税所需资金由大幅提高增值税提供，也就是说普通市民将为此付出代价。


The VAT increase will hurt, but there was no other way.

提高增值税会带来切肤之痛，但除此之外别无他法。


Awareness, boldness, and comprehensive policymaking have come as a relief to French investors, and have left them better positioned to face the crisis.

清醒的头脑及大胆全面的决策令法国的投资者感到安心，让他们在面对危机时有更多办法。


The French government’s new push to confront the country’s economic plight matters not only to France, but to Europe and the world as well.

法国政府应对国内经济困境的全新举措对法国、欧洲和世界都至关重要。


After all, France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy, and the fifth-largest economy in the world.

毕竟法国是欧元区排名第二、世界排名第五的经济大国。


And yet, despite these bright spots, international cooperation on issues ranging from regional conflicts to the protection of global public goods remains weak.

尽管有这些亮点，在从地区冲突到保护全球公众利益等领域的国际合作依然非常薄弱。


Antarctica, the only land in the world that is administered directly by the international community, is a recent case in point.

南极洲这块世界范围内唯一由国际社会直接管理的大陆就是最新的例证。


The Antarctic Treaty, negotiated in 1959, prohibits any and all military activities in Antarctica and forbids the establishment of any borders.

1959年谈判达成的南极条约禁止在南极洲从事一切军事活动或划定一切边界。


Three agreements – the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals (1972), the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR, 1980), and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (PEP, 1991), which prohibits any activity relating to mineral resources – have since been added to the treaty.

《南极海豹保护公约 》 （ 1972年 ） 、 《南极海洋生物资源养护公约 》 （ 南极海洋生物资源保护委员会，1980年）以及禁止一切采矿活动的《南极条约环境保护议定书 》 （ PEP，1991年）等三项公约陆续增补进南极条约的内容。


The Antarctic Treaty System includes three annual meetings: one deals with the supervision and management of the Treaty itself, and the other two concern the CCAMLR and the PEP.

南极条约体系包含三次年会：其中一次涉及条约本身的监督和管理，另两次则与南极海洋生物资源养护委员会和《南极条约环境保护议定书》相关。


In recent years, proposals have been considered that would establish marine reserves around the continent and end the risk of growing scarcity, or the outright disappearance, of a variety of species of fish and cetaceans.

近年来在大陆周围设立海洋保护区的建议已经被纳入考虑，目的是防止各种鱼及鲸类数量日益减少甚至彻底灭绝。


The principle that international cooperation is required to protect fishery resources, which are dwindling everywhere, was adopted at the 2011 CCAMLR meeting.

2011年召开的南极海洋生物资源养护委员会会议确立了需要进行国际合作保护日益减少的渔业资源的原则。


At the 2012 CCAMLR meeting, which concluded at the beginning of November in Hobart, Australia, three proposals (from the US, New Zealand, and France/Australia) to establish marine reserves in three different areas were discussed.

在2012年11月初结束的澳大利亚霍巴特南极海洋生物资源养护委员会会议上，与会者探讨了由美国、新西兰和法国/澳大利亚提出的在三个不同地区设立海洋保护区的三项提案。


They were compatible and would reinforce one another.

上述提案不仅彼此之间没有冲突，而且还可以相互强化。


Yet the discussion foundered, and no decision was taken.

可是讨论最终没能达成决议。


Russia and Ukraine – and, to a lesser extent, China – blocked efforts to reach an agreement.

俄罗斯和乌克兰、其次还有中国妨碍了协议的达成。


This failure reflects the same dynamic at work in the breakdown of global climate-change conferences in recent years: a few cynical countries, whose cooperation is needed to save the planet, fuel the madness of those bent on destroying it.

此次失败反映出近年来导致全球气候变化会议搁浅的同样一个原因：少数几个玩世不恭的国家，我们需要他们的合作才能拯救地球，但他们却助长了那些决意毁灭地球者的疯狂。


That will not change until a new consciousness emerges worldwide to persuade states to support binding international law.

除非说服各国政府支持有约束力的国际法的全新意识在世界各国扎根，否则这种状况很难发生变化。


The US has now reelected a president who understands this.

美国目前连任的总统理解这一点的重要。


France has a president who understands the need for bold, far-reaching actions as well.

法国也有一位理解必需采取大胆、意义深远行动的总统。


Their active leadership, and that of others, is needed now more than ever to turn the tide.

我们现在比任何时候都需要他们及其他人的积极领导，才能帮助我们力挽狂澜、实现目标。


Assured Mutual Dependence

确保相互依赖


LONDON – During the Cold War, the certainty of “mutually assured destruction” steered the nuclear arms race away from catastrophe: a would-be attacker would face immediate retaliation, inevitably ending in both sides’ annihilation.

伦敦—冷战期间 ， “ 确保互相摧毁”的确定性让核武竞赛远离灾难���后果：人若犯我，我必犯人，双方都难逃灭绝的命运。


Today, a very different race is taking place – a race for the earth’s vital resources, and it threatens to undermine stability in key regions of the world.

如今，一场完全不同的竞赛正在展开 — — 地球关键资源竞赛，这场竞赛可能会动摇世界关键地区的稳定性。


The growing dependence of countries on one another’s food, water, and energy requires that the global response to sustainability is taken to the highest political level.

各国日益依赖他国的粮食、水和能源，这要求我们把可持续性的全球响应列为最高政治等级。


Unlike the nuclear arms race of the twentieth century, the resource-security agenda is not linear.

与二十世纪的核武竞赛不同，资源安全日程不是线性的。


Mutually assured destruction was explicitly acknowledged during the Cold War in statements from both sides.

确保互相摧毁白纸黑字地写在冷战期间对立双方的声明中。


In the race for resources that defines the twenty-first century, no actor is directly or indirectly threatening other players to curtail food or energy exports, but all bear the systemic risks.

在成为二十一世纪特征的资源竞赛中，没有哪个行动方直接或间接地威胁其他行动方减少粮食和能源出口，但所有人都承担着系统性风险。


Countries have become unavoidably interdependent, and climate change, water stress, and the loss of ecological resilience all increase the volatility of this mutual dependence.

各国都不可避免地变得互相依赖，气候变化、水压力和生态恢复力的下降都增加了这一互相依赖的波动性。


In a world of limited and scarce resources, countries and companies will be forced to make decisions that affect one another’s security.

世界的资源是有限而稀缺的，国家和公司将被迫做出互相影响安全的决定。


In order to navigate this interdependence, the Earth Security Index 2014, produced by the Earth Security Initiative, shows countries’ combined vulnerabilities that might increase the risk exposure of governments and companies, unless more strategic approaches and sustainable investments are put in place.

为了引导这一互相依赖性，地球安全计划（Earth Security Initiative，ESI）发布的地球安全指数2014（Earth Security Index 2014）显示各国脆弱度加起来可能导致政府和公司风险敞口增加，除非我们有更具战略眼光的方针和可持续投资。


The ESI identifies four areas of mutual dependence that will likely shape global security in the coming decades:

ESI认为，四个互相依赖领域可能会影响未来数十年的全球安全：


·         Choke points.

·         梗阻点。


Countries’ growing demand for energy, water, food, and land cannot be satisfied without incurring tradeoffs among limited available resources.

各国的能源、水、粮食和土地需求无法在不进行有限可得资源之间的权衡的情况下得到满足。


Choke points are reached when the available resources are insufficient to satisfy demand.

当可得资源不足以满足需求时，便达到了梗阻点。


In China and India, for example, this means that in certain regions there may not be enough water in the short term to run coal-fired thermal power stations and irrigate large fields to grow crops.

比如，在中国和印度，这意味着一些地区无法在短期获得足够的水运行燃煤热电厂和灌溉大片土地种植庄稼。


In China, 60% of planned coal-fired power plants will be built in water-stressed regions.

在中国，60%的规划燃煤电厂将建于水资源紧缺地区。


·         Food.

·         粮食。


The growing dependence of many countries on food, water, and energy imports creates new opportunities for trade and investment, but it also exposes countries to critical vulnerabilities.

许多国家对粮食、水和能源进口依赖日益增加为贸易和投资创造了新的机会，但也让国家暴露出关键弱点。


Australia, for example, is a large coal exporter but imports most of its refined fuels and holds just three days of fuel stockpiles.

比如，澳大利亚是煤炭出口大国，但精炼燃料大部分依靠进口，燃料储备只够用三天。


The challenges of mutual dependence are particularly acute with respect to food.

互相依赖的挑战在粮食方面尤其突出。


As the ESI shows, some countries – including Egypt, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates – are heavily dependent on cereal imports from a small number of suppliers.

ESI指出，一些国家 — — 包括埃及、秘鲁和阿联酋 — — 严重依赖少数供应国的谷物进口。


Moreover, grain suppliers’ exposure to extreme weather may compromise their ability to sustain supplies, with knock-on effects for import-dependent countries.

此外，谷物供应国又容易受极端天气的冲击，这可能制约它们的持续供应能力，从而让进口依赖国连带遭殃。


In 2010, for example, Russia imposed an export ban on wheat, following a severe drought.

比如，2010年，俄罗斯因为严重干旱实施了小麦出口禁令。


The resulting food-price increases are believed to have played a role in Egypt’s revolution.

据信由此造成的粮食价格上涨在埃及革命中扮演了重要角色。


·         Teleconnections.

·         遥相关。


Anticipating systemic ecological risks will be increasingly important for sectors such as reinsurance and infrastructure investments.

预测系统性生态风险将对再保险和基础设施投资等部门越来越重要。


“Teleconnections” refer to weather events that are related to one another over large geographic distances.

“遥相关”是指地理距离很远的天气事件彼此之间互相联系。


They are well known to science but not properly discussed by the industries, investors, and governments whose security depends on environmental stability.

科学界对此早已熟知，但在安全系于环境稳定性的产业界、投资者和政府中间还没有得到应有的讨论。


For example, tropical rainforests play a crucial function in maintaining stable weather and rainfall, acting as a “pump” that helps moisture travel between different regions.

比如，热带雨林在保持稳定天气和降雨方面起着关键作用，起着帮助不同地区间的水传播的“泵”的作用。


Deforestation can thus have a destabilizing effect on weather patterns, amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts.

因此，毁林对天气路径具有破坏性影响，加剧了洪水和干旱等极端事件的频率和严重程度。


The resulting liabilities to key industries and the financial sector are clear.

由此产生的关键产业和金融部门的责任是明确的。


In Brazil, for example, deforestation in Amazonia has slowed significantly over the last five years, but Brazil has already lost more than 11 million hectares of rainforest; its exposure to extreme weather has also steadily risen, with floods causing $4.7 billion in losses in 2011 alone.

比如，在巴西，亚马逊流域的森林采伐速度在过去五年中明显减缓，但巴西已经失去了1,100多万公顷的热带雨林，巴西极端天气也在稳步上升，光是在2011年，洪水就造成了47亿美元的损失。


·         Land productivity bottlenecks: Agriculture systems are reaching resource limits, and persistent governance gaps compromise their ability to ensure food security, dignified livelihoods, and ecological stewardship.

·         土地生产率瓶颈：农业系统正在达到资源极限，持续的治理缺口制约了它们确保粮食安全、生活尊严和生态支持力的能力。


Companies, investors, governments, and communities confront a series of critical barriers to increasing the food availability that the world needs: Local populations’ insecure land ownership; receding water tables, owing to unsustainable extraction rates; inefficient use of pollution-causing inputs like fertilizers and pesticides; the loss of vital ecosystems, affecting the resilience of food production; and certain areas’ inability to cope with extreme weather.

在提高全世界所急需的粮食可获得性的问题上公司、投资者、政府和社会面临着一系列关键障碍：本地人口土地所有权得不到保障；不可持续的开采速度导致潜水面下降；致污投入（如化肥和杀虫剂）的无效使用；重要生态系统的损失影响了粮食生产的恢复力；以及某些地区无力抵挡极端天气。


In some regions of India, for example, these issues are playing out in tandem.

比如，在印度的一些地区，这些问题都存在。


Insecure land tenure acts as a disincentive for smallholder farmers to commit to productivity-enhancing investments; water extraction rates are depleting aquifers as a result of permissive policies; and food security remains out of reach for millions of people, despite rapid economic growth in urban areas.

得不到保障的土地所有权导致小农无法进行改进生产率的投资；放任的政策导致水开采率过快，含水层流失严重；尽管农村地区经济增长迅速，仍有数百万人得不到粮食安全。


Countries and companies will increasingly need to invest in sustainable land in order to hedge their resource risks.

国家和公司将越来越需要投资于可持续土地以规避这些资源风险。


In 2015, global frameworks are due to be agreed to address climate change, coordinate responses to natural disasters, and guide the world’s development agenda.

2015年将形成一致的全球框架以纠正气候变化、协调自然灾害反应、指导全球发展日程。


Some of these multilateral processes – in particular, those seeking an ambitious global climate agreement – appear to be moving in slow motion and against the grain of geopolitical interests.

一些多边过程 — — 特别是那些雄心勃勃的全球气候协议 — — 进展缓慢，不符合地缘政治利益。


In the past, the case for high-level nuclear governance was urgent and clear, but required processes for creating a common understanding of risks and opportunities across national borders.

在过去，高级别核治理的需求是紧迫而明确的，但需要创造对风险和机遇的超越国界的共同理解的过程。


Successful multilateral responses, like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, continue to be supported by more flexible global platforms, such as the Nuclear Threat Initiative, based on relationships and trust established outside the box of formal multilateralism.

核不扩散条约等成功的多边反应机制仍然受到核威胁倡议（Nuclear Threat Initiative）等更灵活的全球平台的支持，其基础是建立在正式多边主义之外的关系和信任。


This year, as world leaders discuss the next generation of sustainability, development, and climate frameworks, they will need to put their security and mutual dependence at the heart of the responses.

今年，世界领导人将讨论下一代可持续性、发展和气候框架，在此过程中，他们需要将安全和互相依赖置于应对措施的核心。


Here, too, the world will need to create informal platforms that supplement traditional multilateralism.

在这方面，世界还需要建立非正式平台以补充传统多边主义。


In particular, the outdated divisions between rich and poor countries and their responsibilities must be revised.

特别是，富国和穷国过时两分法和他们的责任必须重新定义。


As new powers like China, Brazil, India, and other G-20 economies bid to reform global governance systems, their vulnerability to resource security must invigorate these processes.

中国、巴西、印度和等新的大国和其他G-20经济体提出了全球治理体系改革，它们在资源安全方面的脆弱性应该对这些过程起到刺激作用。


Only then will the world be on track to improve the security of all.

惟其如此，世界才会走向改善所有人的安全的道路。


After Aleppo

阿勒颇之后


DENVER – The end of the fighting in Aleppo will not end the Syrian war, despite the countrywide ceasefire that has just been agreed.

丹佛—阿拉破战事的结束不会结束叙利亚战争，尽管已经达成全国停火协议。


Nor will it ease the suffering of the city’s population, much of which has been displaced.

阿勒颇市民的苦难也得不到缓解 — — 其中许多人已经流离失所。


What the Aleppo siege will do is clinch Syria’s place in history as, to borrow former US Secretary of State Warren Christopher’s phrase, another “problem from hell.”

阿勒颇围城赢得了什么呢？ 赢得了叙利亚的历史地位 — — 用美国前国务卿沃伦·克里斯托弗（Warren Christopher）的话说，叙利亚是又一个“来自地狱的问题 ” 。


And, like other hellish recent regional conflicts, such as those in Bosnia (to which Christopher was referring) and Rwanda, future historians will emphasize a crucial feature of the Syria conflict: the spectacular diplomatic failures that enabled it to escalate.

和其他地狱般的近期地区冲突，如波斯尼亚（克里斯托弗的话就是针对波斯尼亚说的）和卢旺达一样，未来历史学家眼中的叙利亚冲突的一个关键特征是外交方面的重大失败导致冲突全面升级。


Good diplomacy begins with a keen analysis of interests, both of the country in question and of relevant external powers.

好的外交必须从敏锐的利益分析开始，分析对象既包括问题所在国家，也包括相关外部力量。


It demands a careful assessment of how the pursuit of those interests will affect the regional and international order.

必须仔细评估追求各种利益如何影响地区和国际秩序。


And it seeks ways to strengthen the capacity of regional or world powers to help solve problems.

必须找出办法增强地区或世界力量帮助解决问题的能力。


Throughout this process, universally shared and consistently reinforced values – both critical in getting disparate actors to work together to resolve problems and challenges – must provide a moral compass and common ground for action.

在整个过程中，必须通过不断得到加强的形成普遍共识的价值观 — — 这既是让众多行动方和衷共济的关键，也是解决问题和挑战的关键 — — 提供道德指南和共同行动基础。


The key is to ensure that values do not become weapons, deployed by one actor against another in a way that exacerbates tensions and undermines solutions.

至关重要的是确保价值观不会变成某个行动方针对另一个行动方、加剧冲突、破坏解决方案的武器。


Consider the 1990s Bosnian War – the result of unfinished business from the breakup of the Austrian and Ottoman empires and the creation of nation-states earlier in the twentieth century.

以20世纪90年代的波斯尼亚战争为例 — — 这场战争是20世纪初奥地利和奥斯曼帝国分裂、民族国家建立的历史遗留问题的演化结果。


The conflict erupted in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, at a moment when one set of international organizing principles had collapsed and a new set had not yet been created.

这场冲突爆发于冷战刚刚结束时，正逢一套国际组织原则崩溃、新一套组织原则尚未建立起来的空隙。


Partly as a result of this, the conflict was characterized by large-scale civilian carnage and human-rights violations.

部分拜这一因素所赐，这场冲突引起了大规模杀戮平民和侵犯人权的局面。


But, as a test for the new world order, the Bosnian War ended up catalyzing change in the international community’s institutional structure (including the establishment of war crimes tribunals).

但是，作为新世界秩序的一次考验，波斯尼亚战争最终促使国际社会制度结构发生了改变（包括建立了战争罪法庭 ） 。


Could the nascent post-Cold War system handle the inchoate problems of the former Soviet Union?

方兴未艾的冷战后体系能否处理前苏联解体后所爆发的第一批问题？


Could NATO take on new roles and missions?

北约能否担任新角色、完成新任务？


Could the West work with the new Russian Federation?

西方能否与新建立的俄罗斯联邦合作？


Could the transatlantic relationship weather the storm?

跨大西洋关系能否抵挡这场风暴？


The answer to all of these questions turned out to be yes.

所有这些问题的答案最后都是肯定的。


As a result, though the region continues to be beset by serious problems, the gates of hell have remained closed – as they have in Rwanda.

因此，尽管该地区一直受到严重问题的困扰，但地狱之门仍然没有打开 — — 卢旺达也是如此。


And yet, just 20 years later, it seems that the world’s collective memory of how to cooperate has failed.

但是，仅仅过去了20年，世界关于合作的集体记忆就好像失效了。


To be sure, there was never a clear path to peace in Syria.

平心而论，叙利亚从未出现明晰的和平路径。


President Bashar al-Assad, whose forces now control all of Aleppo for the first time since 2012, is a brutal dictator who has waged war on his own people, including civilians, and has even used chemical weapons.

目前，叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的部队自2012年以来首次重新控制了阿勒颇全境。 而巴沙尔是一位野蛮的独裁者，他想自己的人民（包括平民）发动战争，甚至使用化学武器。


The temptation to seek regime change – a goal embraced by the United States and some European countries – was understandable.

叙利亚人民寻求颠覆政权 — — 美国和一些欧洲国家支持这一目标 — — 是可以理解的。


Yet, in a display of spectacularly incompetent diplomacy, the US set about pursuing that goal without any serious effort to marshal international support, or even to take stock of other opinions or interests.

但是，美国外交表现得非常无能，它似乎想在完全不组织国际支持、甚至不考虑其他选项或利益的情况下追求这一目标。


And make no mistake: there are a lot of (often conflicting) opinions and interests.

不要弄错了：有许多（常常互相冲突的）观点和利益。


After all, Syria is strategically perched on the Mediterranean; shares borders with Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq; and, like Iraq, has its own restive Kurdish minority.

毕竟，叙利亚是地中海的一个战略要点；与以色列、约旦、土耳其和伊拉克接壤；并且与伊拉克一样，也存在桀骜难驯的库尔德少数民族。


It is not the kind of country to which international and regional powers would be indifferent.

这绝不是国际和地区力量能够忽视的国家。


In fact, when Western powers called for regime change, other actors – including Iran, Russia, and Shia interests in neighboring Lebanon – objected.

事实上，当西方力量要求政权更迭时，其他行动方 — — 包括伊朗、俄罗斯和相邻的黎巴嫩的什叶派利益集团 — — 表示反对。


Nonetheless, the US soldiered on with its own poorly formulated agenda, supplying weapons to virtually unknown combatants on the ground before properly vetting them.

尽管如此，美国一意孤行地推行自身相当拙劣的日程，在没有进行合理评估的情况下就为当地它几乎毫无所知的战斗力量提供武器。


That gave the Assad regime’s allies all the justification they needed to supply weapons of their own.

这给了阿萨德政权的盟友所需要的口实提供它们自身的武器。


Some argue that, if the US had just provided more weapons sooner, Assad would not have had time to galvanize support and hold onto power.

有人认为，如果美国更快地提供更多武器，阿萨德根本没有时间巩固支持、坚守权力。


But that neglects the strategic importance of Syria to so many external powers, as well as the fragmentation and unpredictability of the US-based combatants.

但这忽视了叙利亚对如此众多的外部力量的战略重要性，以及依靠美国的战斗力量的分散性和不可预测性。


America’s real mistake was failing to engage with all sides, including Assad and the Sunni opposition, which it deemed sectarian.

美国的真正错误是没有协调所有各方，包括阿萨德和它视为宗派力量的逊尼派反对派。


(During the Bosnian War, by contrast, the US talked to rump Yugoslavia’s ruler, Slobodan Milošević.)

（相反，在波斯尼亚战争期间，美国与南斯拉夫统治者米洛舍维奇谈判。


With that narrow-minded approach – reflected in the lack of any articulated vision for a post-war Syria – the US effectively handed the diplomatic reins over to Russia.

）美国的思维狭隘的方针 — — 它没有描述任何战后叙利亚愿景就是明证 — — 将外交主动权拱手让给了俄罗斯。


Now, the US is essentially playing the role of agitator, offering little more than displays of moral outrage and stale references to a stillborn Geneva process.

如今，美国实际上已经沦为“搅屎棍 ” ， 除了表示义愤和言必称早已流产的日内瓦进程的陈词滥调再也拿不出什么东西。


Reacting to the carnage in Aleppo, Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the United Nations, was reduced to demanding of Assad’s Russian ally, “Are you truly incapable of shame?”

对于阿勒颇大屠杀，美国驻联合国大使萨蔓莎·��威尔（Samantha Power）竟然卑微到质问阿萨德的俄罗斯盟友“你们真的没有羞耻感吗？


Meanwhile, the conflict rages on, with severe spillover effects on US allies like the European Union.

”与此同时，冲突仍在肆虐，并给欧盟的美国盟友造成严重的 溢出效应。


As for Russia, it, too, is pursuing a version of diplomacy that utterly lacks inclusiveness.

至于俄罗斯，它也在追求严重缺乏包容性的外交。


It is working with Turkey (a NATO member that seems increasingly lost at sea) to bring the Syrian opposition and representatives of the Assad government together in Kazakhstan for a new series of peace talks, facilitated by the ceasefire, of which Russia and Turkey are guarantors.

它与土耳其（在海上日渐式微的北约成员国）合作，让叙利亚反对派和阿萨德政府代表在哈萨克斯坦会晤讨论新的和平谈判，由俄罗斯和土耳其作保的停火协议便是一个促进因素。


Iran will be there.

伊朗也将出席。


But where are the Sunni Arab states?

但逊尼派阿拉伯国家呢？


More important, where is the US?

更重要的是，美国呢？


It is often observed that, every four years, the US does without a foreign policy.

人们常常观察到，每隔四年，美国就会迷失于外交政策。


This time, it seems to have gotten an early start.

这一回，迷失来的早了一些。


Alexander Hamilton’s Eurozone Tour

亚历山大·汉密尔顿的欧元区之旅


PRINCETON – Europe’s debt crisis has piqued Europeans’ interest in American precedents for federal finance.

普林斯顿—欧洲债务危机激发了欧洲人关于美国联邦财政经验的兴趣。


For many, Alexander Hamilton has become a contemporary hero.

对许多人来说，亚历山大·汉密尔顿称得上是一位当代英雄。


Perhaps one day his face should appear on the €10 banknote.

或许有朝一日他的头像会出现在10欧元的钞票上。


Specifically, for European states groaning under unbearable debt burdens, Hamilton’s negotiation in 1790 of the new federal government’s assumption of the states’ large debts looks like a tempting model.

具体而言，对于不堪债务重负的欧洲国家而言，汉密尔顿1790年就联邦政府关于各州大量债务开展的谈判是一个极具吸引力的模板。


Indeed, after Thomas Sargent won the Nobel Prize in Economics last year, he cited it as a precedent in his acceptance speech.

事实上，托马斯·萨金特（Thomas Sargent）去年获得诺贝尔奖之后，在获奖演说中援引了汉密尔顿的举措作为先例。


Hamilton argued – against James Madison and Thomas Jefferson – that the debts accumulated by the states during the War of Independence should be assumed by the federation.

汉密尔顿针对詹姆斯·麦迪逊和托马斯·杰斐逊的观点争锋相对地指出，各州在独立战争期间所积累的债务应该被认为是联邦债务。


There were two sides to his case, one practical, the other philosophical.

他的观点包括两个方面，一是实践方面，而是理论方面。


Initially, the most appealing argument for his plan was that it would provide greater security to creditors, and thus reduce interest rates, from the 6% at which the states financed their debt to 4%. Hamilton emphasized the importance of a commitment to sound finance as a prerequisite to public economy.

首先，汉密尔顿计划中最吸引人的角度在于它可以为债权人提供更大的安全性，从而降低了利率，将利率从各州融债时约定的6%降低到了4 % 。


“When the credit of a country is in any degree questionable,” he argued, “it never fails to give an extravagant premium upon all the loans it has occasion to make.”

汉密尔顿强调，作为公共经济的先决条件，健康财政的承诺是很重要的。


While that logic certainly appeals to Europeans today, Hamilton insisted on a stronger reason for pursuing sound finance than merely the pursuit of expediency.

汉密尔顿的逻辑对当今欧洲十分适用，但当初汉密尔顿之所以要追求健康财政，并不仅是为了便宜行事，而是有更深的理由。


There is, he maintained, “an intimate connection between public virtue and public happiness.”

他说 ， “ 公德和公共福祉之间具有紧密联系。


That virtue consisted in honoring commitments, and it would build solidarity in the new political community of the United States.

”公德在于信守承诺，能够为合众国营造团结的新政治氛围。


Indeed, public virtue made federal finance what he called “the powerful cement of our union.”

事实上，公德让联邦财政成为汉密尔顿口中的“我们的联邦的强力粘合剂 ” 。


The condition for success in the American case was that the US raised its own revenue, with federally administered customs houses initially providing the bulk of its receipts.

美国能够成功的条件在于它能获得收入 — — 美国拥有联邦管辖的海关，建国初期，财政收入的大头都来自关税。


The logic of a need for specific revenue applies also in modern Europe, where a reformed fiscal system might include common administration of value-added tax (with the additional benefit of eliminating a considerable amount of cross-border fraud).

这一逻辑 — — 需要具体的收入流 — — 同样适用于现代欧洲，改革后的财政体系可以包括一个共同的增值税机构（这样做还有额外的好处，比如消除数量巨大的跨国欺诈 ） 。


In the American case, however, unity carried a price: a ceiling was imposed on Virginia’s exposure to the common debt.

但是，美国的统一不是没有代价的：弗吉尼亚州就有一个对共同债务敞口的最高上限。


Only this inducement to the most powerful state in the union persuaded Madison to drop his opposition to the proposal.

而正是以此为条件将最强大的州引入联邦才说服了麦迪逊不再反对汉密尔顿的方案。


That compromise (which also led to the US capital’s relocation to the District of Columbia, on the border of Virginia and Maryland) may serve as a precedent for limiting Germany’s liabilities if Eurobonds, or some other debt-mutualization scheme, are introduced.

这一妥协（美国首都最终坐落于弗吉尼亚和马里兰州交界处的哥伦比亚特区也是这一妥协决定的）可以作为在引入欧元债券或其他多边机制时限制德国责任的先例。


The US experiment in federalized finance was not immediately successful.

美国财政联邦化的实验并没有获得马上的成功。


Two important components of Hamilton’s financial architecture were not realized, or were realized imperfectly.

汉密尔顿财政结构中，有两个重要部分无法实现（或无法完美实现 ） 。


He proposed a model of joint-stock banking on a national scale, which ran into immediate opposition (curiously, his proposal was much more influential in Canada).

他提出了在全国范围内建立合资银行业的方案，但立刻招来了反对（有趣的是，这一提案在加拿大产生了重大影响力 ） 。


Second, opponents eventually blocked his proposal for a national central bank.

其次，反对派最终否决了他建立国家中央银行的方案。


The charter of the First Bank of the United States was allowed to lapse in 1811; a generation later, in 1836, President Andrew Jackson successfully opposed the charter of the Second Bank of the United States.

美国第一银行的执照到期日在1811年；25年后，1836年，安德鲁·杰克逊总统成功地否决了美国第二银行的执照。


Nor did the Hamiltonian scheme of federal finance guarantee a peaceful commonwealth.

汉密尔顿的联邦财政担保机制也没有保证联邦的和平。


In fact, the fiscal union proved to be explosive rather than adhesive.

事实上，财政联盟与其说是内敛性的，还不如说是爆发性的。


As international capital markets developed in the early nineteenth century, state governments borrowed on a large scale, quickly turning them from creditors into debtors.

19世纪早期，随着国际资本市场的发展，州政府借贷规模很大，很快就从债权人变成了债务人。


A wave of state defaults followed in the late 1830’s.

接着，在19世纪30年代，爆发了一波州政府违约潮。


A generation later, in the 1860’s, the Civil War between northern and southern states resulted in large part from a dispute about the character of financial burdens –amp at least from the South’s perspective.

几十年后，在19世纪60年代，如何为财政负担定性的争论成为引发美国内战的一大原因，至少南方是这么认为的。


Abraham Lincoln’s original proposal to end the immoral practice of slavery by compensating slave owners for manumission was unacceptably expensive, so the Union, according to the slave-holding Confederacy, was determined to expropriate the South.

亚伯拉罕·林肯最初的建议 — — 补偿奴隶主解放农奴的行为，从而终结不道德的奴隶制 — — 在财政上根本无法承担，因此北方联邦 — — 根据蓄奴联邦的说法 — — 决定剥夺南方的蓄奴权。


The federal assumption of states’ debts by itself could not guarantee political order.

将各州债务算为联邦债务并不能保证政治秩序。


The Civil War revealed the centrality of a common foundation of morality to Hamilton’s approach to debt and public finance.

美国内战表明，对于汉密尔顿的债务和公共财政方法，道德才是共同基础的核心。


As a result, his approach foundered on the differences between the different states’ conception of morality.

因此，在各州道德观念不一的背景下，汉密尔顿的方法失败了。


Europeans today have latched onto the practical side of Hamilton’s argument – that is, the idea that debt mutualization might be a means to cheaper credit; but they have worked out neither the political institutions, nor the shared public virtue, that Hamilton deemed crucial.

如今，欧洲人对汉密尔顿观点的实践方面领会甚深 — — 即债务共同化可以降低信用成本；但对于汉密尔顿认为至关重要的政治制度或共同的公德，欧洲人还任重道远。


The extended and politicized debate about debt restructuring has made a Hamiltonian solution more difficult, because the credit of the countries that would be party to it has become questionable.

欧洲没完没了的关于债务重组的政治化争论使得实行汉密尔顿式的解决方案难上加难，因为其中所牵涉到的国家信用颇为可疑。


An obvious starting point for a Hamiltonian Europe would be to set some standard limit for federalized national debt – perhaps the tarnished threshold of 60% of GDP that was mandated (without adequate enforcement) by the Maastricht convergence criteria, or perhaps a lower limit.

要实现汉密尔顿式的欧洲，显而易见的出发点是设立联邦化国民债务的标准上限，可以是早已被置若罔闻的、缺少强制性的马斯特里赫特大同标准（即不超过GDP的60 % ） ，也可以是更低的上限。


Debt exceeding that amount would be left to the responsibility of the member states.

超过这一限度的债务将由成员国自己负责。


Collective burden-sharing is in the long run the only non-catastrophic way out of Europe’s current crisis, but that requires a substantially greater degree of political accountability and control on a European level.

从长期看，集体共担是走出欧元区当下危机的唯一无破坏性的方式，但这要求持续地增加政治可问责性以及欧洲层面的控制。


The lesson to be learned from Hamilton and the US is that the necessary institutions will not function without a greater degree of moral consensus as well.

汉密尔顿和美国留给欧洲人的教训是，即使有了必要的制度，如果没有较大程度的一直道德观，这些制度也起不了作用。


Can Navalny Save Russia?

纳瓦尔尼能拯救俄罗斯吗？


MOSCOW – In 1811, assessing the possibility – or, rather, the impossibility – of Russia ever undergoing a Western-style transformation, the diplomat and counter-Enlightenment philosopher Joseph de Maistre famously wrote, “Every nation has the government it deserves.”

莫斯科—1811年，外交家、反启蒙主义哲学家迈斯特（Joseph de Maistre）在评估俄罗斯发生西方式转型的可能性 — — 或者说不可能性 — — 时写下了一段著名的话 ： “ 每一个国家都有它应得的政府。


Fourteen years later, the Decembrist revolt – a movement of poets and army officers to topple Czar Nicholas I and establish a constitutional monarchy – seemed to refute de Maistre’s claim.

”十四年后，十二月革命 — — 诗人和军官推翻沙皇尼古拉斯一世、实现君主立宪的运动 — — 似乎驳倒了迈斯特的结论。


Yet the revolt was suppressed, and the Decembrists were executed or exiled.

但革命遭到了镇压，十二月革命党人被处死或流放。


One doomed officer famously declared, “You can’t hang us all.”

一位被处决的官员说了一句名言 ： “ 你无法绞死我们所有人。 ”


Russia’s brutal twentieth century, with its totalitarianism and gulags, nearly proved that officer – and de Maistre – wrong.

俄罗斯的野蛮二十世纪及其集权主义和古拉格几乎证明了这位官员 — — 以及迈斯特 — — 的错误。


No one “deserves” to be ruled so monstrously.

没人“应得”被如此残暴统治的命运。


An estimated 20 million Russians perished under Stalin’s rule, and the rest were paralyzed with terror.

据估计，2000万俄罗斯人丧生于斯大林的统治，其余人也在恐怖中惶惶不可终日。


The twenty-first century has been kinder to Russians, at least so far.

二十一世纪对俄罗斯人来说要和善得多，至少到目前是如此。


But, while terror and famine have been absent, many of the oppressive tactics of the past have been revived under Vladimir Putin’s misrule, now in its 14th year.

但是，尽管恐怖和饥馑已不复存在，但许多过去的镇压手段在普京的暴政下 — — 目前正处于第14年 — — 卷土重来。


Since 2003, when the billionaire oil oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested for alleged embezzlement and fraud – after he dared to support Putin’s political opponents – Russia’s elite has been largely brought to heel.

2003年，亿万富翁、石油寡头霍尔多科夫斯基（Mikhail Khodorkovsky）因受控贪污和欺诈被捕 — — 此前，他干预支持普京的政敌 — — 自此以后，大部分俄罗斯精英变得卑躬屈膝。


None of them envisaged rotting in a labor camp like Khodorkovsky.

没人敢设想像霍尔多科夫斯基那样被关进劳动营。


Under Putin, it seems, de Maistre’s maxim has received a new lease on life.

在普京治下，迈斯特似乎又要一语成谶。


Then in 2011, massive protests against Putin and his party of “crooks and thieves” erupted, and Alexei Navalny, who coined that epithet, became the face of Russia’s opposition.

接着，在2011年，俄罗斯爆发了针对普京及其“骗子和小偷”党的大规模示威 ， “ 骗子和小偷”这一称呼的始作俑者纳瓦尔尼（Alexei Navalny）成了俄罗斯反对派的代言人。


Navalny, a 37-year-old anti-corruption lawyer, has been a thorn in Putin’s side ever since.

这位37岁的反腐律师自此被视为普京的眼中钉。


Recently, he announced that he has presidential ambitions; in the meantime, he is seeking to become the mayor of Moscow (arguably the second most important political post in Russia).

最近，他声称有雄心竞选总统；与此同时，他还寻求成为莫斯科市长（被认为是俄罗斯第二重要的政治职位 ） 。


The mayoral campaign is now in full swing, with the election on September 8 the first in Moscow in ten years, as Putin had simply been appointing loyalists as mayors and governors throughout the country.

莫斯科市长选战目前正如火如荼，即将于9月8日举行的选举时莫斯科近十年来的第一次选举，在此期间，普京一直任命亲信为俄罗斯各大城市市长和州长。


The incumbent mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, who has the full support of the Kremlin political-media machine, has been receiving personal-approval ratings above 90% in recent opinion polls.

现任莫斯科市长索比亚宁（Sergey Sobyanin）拥有克里姆林政治宣传机器的全力支持，在当前的民调中获得了90%以上的个人支持率。


But Navalny’s approval ratings are not far behind, at 80%, and he has achieved them entirely on his own.

但纳瓦尔尼的支持率也不遑多让，达到了80 % ， 且几乎完全是靠一己之力获得的。


Navalny’s candidacy received a recent boost when he became a convicted criminal, following a trial that resembled Khodorkovsky’s in terms of blatant political manipulation.

最近纳瓦尔尼的竞选活动因为他被政治操纵之赤裸堪与霍尔多科夫斯基案相提并论的定罪而获得了提振。


Accused of fraud, Navalny received a five-year prison sentence for allegedly embezzling from Kirovles, a provincial timber company.

纳瓦尔尼被控欺诈，因为挪用省级木材公司Kirovles公款而被判处五年有期徒刑。


But, in an unusual twist, Navalny was released from custody pending appeal of his conviction only a day after it was handed down.

但是，经过一番不同寻常的周折，在判决下达仅仅一天后，纳瓦尔尼就从监禁中被释放。


That, some say, was because his supporters immediately took to the streets.

有人说，这是因为他的支持者立刻涌上了街头。


The likelier motivation is that Putin decided to let the election play out, relying on Navalny to lose.

更有可能的动机是普京决定让选举这出戏演完，他认定纳瓦尔尼会输。


In that case, Sobyanin, who was appointed in 2010, would gain the legitimacy that he has lacked until now, and the opposition movement would be discredited in the capital, whose residents form the core of Navalny’s political base.

果真如此的话，2010年被任命的索比亚宁将获得他至今未能获得的合法性，而反对运动将在首都 — — 纳瓦尔尼政治支持者的主要来源 — — 失去立足点。


But what if Navalny is elected?

但如果纳瓦尔尼当选怎么办？


Would his sentence be commuted, postponed, or annulled?

他的刑期会被缩短、中止还是取消？


Would he go to prison, Muscovites’ choice notwithstanding?

还是会无视莫斯科人民的选择被关进监狱？


In a new challenge to de Maistre’s maxim, almost 200 young businessmen overcame the fear inspired by Khodorkovsky’s fate and donated funds to Navalny’s campaign.

在这一迈斯特谶语的新挑战中，近200名年轻商人克服了来自霍多尔科夫斯基命运的恐惧，为纳瓦尔尼的选战慷慨解囊。


Thirty-seven of them signed what they called a new “social contract.”

其中37人在他们所谓的新“社会契约”上签了字。


According to their manifesto, they “expect Navalny to defend the rule of law, support independent courts, and ensure that officials are really accountable before society.”

根据他们的宣言，他们“期待纳瓦尔尼捍卫法治精神，支持司法独立，并确保社会真正可以问责官员。


They are investing “reputational, financial, organizational, and other resources” in a man who promises to hire competent advisers and free the city – and eventually the country – from endemic corruption and abuse of power.

”他们将“信誉、财务、组织和其他资源”投资在承诺延请胜任顾问、让莫斯科 — — 最终是俄罗斯 — — 摆脱腐败和权力滥用弊端的人身上。


Most of these young entrepreneurs have risen within the “knowledge economy.”

这些年轻企业家大多崛起于“知识经济 ” 。


They include the inventor of a cloud-computing service, the founder of an online luxury-goods business, a developer of new banking technologies, and the creator of a social-networking platform for doctors.

他们但中有云计算服务发明者、在线奢侈品企业创始人、新银行技术开发者、和医生社交网络平台创始人。


All of them have good educations, and many hold American business degrees.

他们所有人都受过良好的教育，许多拥有美国商学学位。


Many of these business leaders would have preferred to stay out of politics; but Russia’s poor education system, economic feudalism, official homophobia, and other festering problems have left them no choice.

这些商业领袖大多更愿意置身政治圈外；但俄罗斯落后的教育系统、经济封建主义、官方对同性恋的憎恶以及其他恶性问题让他们别无选择。


And Putin himself has become an insufferably vulgar embarrassment.

普金本身也变成了一桩令人难以忍受的恶俗闹剧。


To be sure, Navalny’s backers could emigrate comfortably; but, invigorated by their candidate’s campaign, they are willing to see whether he can make a difference.

平心而论，纳瓦尔尼的支持者可以方便地移民国外；但是，受纳瓦尔尼选战的鼓舞，他们愿意看看他能否带来不同。


Indeed, Navalny has become the only hope for competitive politics in Russia.

事实上，纳瓦尔尼已经成为俄罗斯竞争政治的唯一希望。


At the same time, Navalny’s unapologetic nationalism makes many people nervous.

与此同时，纳瓦尔尼拒不让步的民族主义立场让许多人感到紧张。


And, while Russian leaders may start out as reformers, they do not often remain so.

而尽管俄罗斯领导人不乏以改革者身份登场者，但能坚持下来的人很少。


Boris Yeltsin began the 1990’s as a courageous democrat, only to end up a corrupt, bibulous buffoon, while Putin initially vowed to bring law and order to the post-Yeltsin chaos.

叶利钦以勇敢的民主派身份开启了1990年代，但在结束政治生涯时，他的形象是一个腐败的醉鬼，而普京在上任之初也宣誓要给叶利钦身后的混乱局面带来法律和秩序。


So Moscow’s mayoral election is a moment of truth for Navalny, the business leaders investing in his campaign, all Muscovites, and perhaps Russia as a whole.

因此，莫斯科市长选举是纳瓦尔尼、投资于他的商业领袖、所有莫斯科市民甚至整个俄罗斯的真相时刻。


As in the time of the Decembrists, anyone in Russia can suffer from overweening government power, regardless of political belief.

正如十二月革命时期，任何俄罗斯人遭遇恣睢的政府权力侵害，不管他的政见如何。


Fear and apathy have become riskier than taking a stand.

恐惧和冷漠比现实立场更加危险。


But the question remains: Come September 8, can Navalny and his supporters change Russia’s political culture of fear, or was de Maistre right after all?

但问题依然：9月8日来临时，纳瓦尔尼及其支持者能否改变俄罗斯恐惧的政治文化？ 还是迈斯特会笑到最后？


How We Lose Our Marbles

我们是怎样丧失理智的


ATHENS – George Clooney has reignited a longstanding debate after suggesting, in response to a Greek journalist’s question, that removing the Parthenon Marbles, known in Britain as the Elgin Marbles, from London’s British Museum and returning them to their ancient home in Athens would be “the right thing to do.”

雅典 — — 在回答希腊记者提问时，乔治·克鲁尼表示让现存于伦敦大英博物馆的帕台农神庙大理石浮雕（英国也称之为埃尔金浮雕）回归其古代的家园雅典是“正确的选择 ” 。


In the early nineteenth century, the friezes and sculptures were removed from the Parthenon by Lord Elgin, Britain’s ambassador to the Ottoman Empire from 1799 to 1803.

十九世纪初，1799至1803年任英国驻奥斯曼帝国大使的埃尔金勋爵将雕像和饰物搬出了帕台农神庙。


Elgin sold them to the British government, which put them in the British Museum.

埃尔金把雕像出售给英国政府，英国政府将这些文物放在大英博物馆展出。


Greece wants them back.

现在希腊想要回这些文物。


The occasion for this latest round of historical jousting is the release of Clooney’s new film The Monuments Men, which details Allied efforts to rescue art works from the Nazis during World War II.

克鲁尼新片《古迹卫士》的上映引发了本轮历史争议，这部影片描述的是二战时期从纳粹手中拯救艺术品的联合行动。


His comments infuriated London’s provocative mayor, Boris Johnson, himself a classics scholar and author, who shot back that Clooney’s position on the issue was similar to that of the Nazis portrayed in his film.

克鲁尼此番言论却激怒了火爆的伦敦市长及古典学者兼作家鲍里斯·约翰逊，他反唇相讥讽刺克鲁尼在此问题上的立场与影片中描述的纳粹非常相似。


But the film is of less interest in this dispute than the identity of the characters involved.

但影片的核心与其说是关注这场争议，还不如说是展现角色性格。


Perhaps the most important question is this: Whom is the public inclined to believe – Clooney or Johnson (or perhaps the Nazis)?

或许最重要的问题是：公众更愿意相信谁 — — 克鲁尼还是约翰逊（或者纳粹 ） ？


Of course, one might ask why the people involved should matter at all; surely the facts of the case should speak for themselves.

当然，有人可能会问这与当时的参与者有什么关系；本案的事实理应是不言自明的。


And yet, on questions such as this – as with so many important political, social, economic, and cultural issues – what we come to believe is not based on the facts alone, if at all.

但这件事就像很多重要的政治、社会、经济和文化问题一样，人们的看法远不止立足于事实。


Sometimes we may indeed think deeply about the pros and cons of each argument, actively seeking information and data that would support one view over another; in other cases, however, we rely on a “quick and dirty” evaluation of the arguments, focusing not on evidence, but rather on an advocate’s expertise or popularity.

有时我们的确会深入思考各种观点孰优孰劣，并积极搜寻一种观点胜过其他观点的事实和证据；但也有时我们迅速对观点做出不负责任的判断，我们真正关注的并不是证据，而是观点倡导者的专业性或受欢迎度。


Social and cognitive psychologists have long understood these two basic processes in their study of “dual-process” models, which explain how we process information and eventually form an opinion.

社会及认知心理学家早就在对人类处理信息及最终判断的“双进程”模型的研究中了解了这两种基本进程。


We take the peripheral route to information processing when buying, say, a toaster on a whim, whereas we take the so-called central route – thoroughly considering technical, safety, and aesthetic features – when buying a car.

我们在一时兴起购买烤面包机时只经过末梢区域的神经路线，但我们在选购汽车时却要经过所谓的中枢路线 — — 即全面衡量技术、安全和美学特征。


The systematic study of persuasion began during World War II, when the US Army recognized that fighting a nation mesmerized by Hitler would require bolstering troop motivation and rallying popular support for the war.

对说服能力的系统性研究始于二战，因为美军意识到与被希特勒蛊惑的民族作战需要鼓舞军队士气，并说服民众支持战争。


They sought help from Yale University psychologist Carl Hovland and his associates, who produced what has become a well-known model of persuasion, comprising three groups of variables related to the communicator, the audience, and the message.

他们向耶鲁大学心理学家卡尔·霍夫兰及其同事寻求帮助，前者的研究结果成就了由沟通者、受众和信息等三组变量组成的著名的说服模型。


Hovland drew upon ideas dating back to Aristotle’s Rhetoric, which argued that persuasiveness is built on the communicator’s ethical character, the audience’s emotional state, and the logic of the argument, the latter being the most powerful.

霍夫兰借鉴了亚里士多德的思想，后者指出说服能力取决于沟通者的道德品质、受众的情绪状态还有最重要的 — — 论证的逻辑性。


Psychological research has shown that any one of these three can be persuasive, depending on the speaker’s attractiveness or the audience’s predisposition.

心理学研究表明这三点当中的任何一点都可以很有说服力，而说服力的大小取决于演讲者的魅力以及听众自身的倾向性。


For example, star-struck female film fans may be especially prone to believe any utterance from Hollywood’s most famous silver fox. Or, in the case of the Nazis, fear may predispose the audience to be persuaded.

比方说，迷恋明星的女性影迷可能特别容易相信好莱坞著名银狐的观点，或者在涉及纳粹的情况下，恐惧会使听众很容易被说服。


But in most cases, when people are confronted with matters of great importance, they are more likely to use the so-called central route to information processing, and rightly so.

但多数情况下当面对重要问题时，人们更有可能采取所谓信息处理的中枢路线，而且这也是理所当然的。


Issues of world cultural heritage, for example, deserve conscious, thoughtful deliberation of the facts.

比方说世界文化遗产问题就需要自觉、全面的考虑现实情况。


Indeed, it is our duty, and the very basis of any successful civilization, that important decisions are made only after scrutinizing all relevant information and weighing the relative merits of every position.

事实上，在权衡所有信息和每种立场的相对优劣后作出重要决策既是我们的义务，也是任何成功文明的立足点。


Once that duty has been fulfilled, a logical person will understand that the Parthenon Marbles, long held by a former imperial power’s flagship museum, were violently severed from the rest of the Parthenon sculptures – an outrage against art and an unhealed scar inflicted by the British on the long-suffering Greek people.

一旦履行了这项义务，理性的人就应该明白由曾几何时的帝国主义代表性博物馆长期把持的帕台农神庙大理石浮雕被与其余帕台农神庙雕塑硬生生地割裂开来 — — 这是对艺术的粗暴践踏，也是英国在多灾多难的希腊人民尚未愈合的伤口上又撒了一把盐。


At that point, only one conclusion is possible: The plundered Marbles must be reunited in their historical home and exhibited to the world as the ancient artists intended.

因此，只有一个可能的结论：被夺走的大理石雕像必须回归其历史家园，按照古代艺术家的意愿向全世界展出。


Persuaded?

被我说服了？


Perhaps not – I am Greek, after all.

也许没有 — — 毕竟我是希腊人。


But do not take Clooney’s word for it, either (or Johnson’s).

但不要听信克鲁尼，也不能盲从约翰逊。


Deciding the disposition of the world’s cultural patrimony is not like buying a toaster.

决定世界文化遗产的归属不像买面包机那样简单。


Living Big Data

活的大数据


CAMBRIDGE – Big data is made from the digital trail that we leave behind when we use credit cards, mobile phones, or the Web.

美国剑桥—大数据来自我们使用信用卡、移动电话或网络后留下的数字痕迹。


Used carefully and accurately, these data give us unprecedented scope to understand our society, and improve the way we live and work.

小心正确地使用这些数据能给我们带来前所未有的角度理解我们的社会，改善我们生活和工作的方式。


But what works in theory may not translate well in the real world, where complex human interactions cannot always be captured, even by the most sophisticated models.

但理论上有效并不意味着在现实世界中管用，在现实世界中，复杂的人际互动未必总能把握，即便你使用最现金的模型。


Big data requires us to experiment on a big scale.

大数据要求我们进行大规模实验。


My own laboratory, for example, is building a Web site which, based on Google maps, uses society’s digital trail to map poverty, infant mortality, crime rates, changes in GDP, and other social indicators, neighborhood by neighborhood – all of which will be updated daily.

比如，我自己的实验室正在建设基于谷歌地图的一个网站，该网站使用社会的数字痕迹勾勒贫困、婴儿死亡率、犯罪率、GDP变化和其他社会指标地图，并以社区为单位显示，每日更新。


This new capability allows viewers to see, for example, where government initiatives are working or failing.

这一新功能能让访问者了解（比如）某地的政府计划是见效了还是失败了。


But, while such impressive visualization tools can dramatically enhance transparency and public knowledge, they are surprisingly limited when applied to solving society’s problems.

但是，尽管这些令人瞩目的可视化工具能够极大地增加透明度和公共知识，但在被用于解决社会问题时，它们的作用仍然非常有限。


One reason is that such rich streams of data encourage spurious correlations.

一个原因是如此丰富的数据流引起了不可靠的相关性。


Even the use of the normal scientific method no longer works; given so many measurements, and so many more potential connections among what’s being measured, our standard statistical tools generate nonsensical results.

即使使用常规科学方法也不再管用；在测量指标众多和测量对象之间的潜在关系更多的情况下，我们的标准统计工具已无法产生有意义的结果。


Without knowing all possible alternatives, we cannot form a limited, testable set of clear hypotheses.

在不了解所有可能的替代方法的情况下，我们无法形成一个有限的、可检验的明确假说集。


And if we can no longer rely on laboratory experiments to test causality, we must test it in the real world, using massive volumes of real-time data.

而如果我们能够不再依赖实验室实验检验因果关系，就必须在真实世界中使用大量实时数据进行检验。


This involves moving beyond the closed, question-and-answer process typical of the lab, and applying our ideas in society, earlier and more frequently than ever before.

这需要超越封闭的、以提问-回答为顺序的典型的实验室过程，提早并以比从前任何时候更频繁地在社会中应用我们的思想。


To see how things work in reality, we must construct living laboratories – that is, communities willing to try new ways of doing things (to be blunt, to act as guinea pigs).

为了了解现实中的事物怎样运行，我们必须构建生活实验室 — — 即愿意尝试新方法做事的社区（能够直言，充当小白鼠 ） 。


An example of such a living lab is the “open data city,” which I launched with the city of Trento in Italy, along with Telecom Italia, Telefónica, the research university Fondazione Bruno Kessler, the Institute for Data Driven Design, and local companies.

一个生活实验室的例子是“开放数据城市 ” ， 这是我与意大利电信（Telecom Italia ） 、 西班牙电信（Telefónica ） 、 研究型大学Fondazione Bruno Kessler、数据驱动设计研究所（Institute for Data Driven Design）以及当地公司一起在意大利特兰托市（Trento）开展的实验。


Importantly, this living lab has the approval and informed consent of all involved; they understand that they are participating in a gigantic experiment whose goal is to create a better way of living.

重要的是，这个生活实验室获得了所有参与者的知情同意和批准；他们都知道自己在参与一个巨型实验，目标是创造更好的生活方式。


One major challenge for a living lab is to protect individual privacy without diminishing the potential for better government.

生活实验室的一大主要挑战是保护个人隐私而不影响形成更好的政府的潜力。


The Trento lab, for example, will pilot my proposed “New Deal on Data,” which gives users greater control over their personal data through trust-network software such as our open PDS (Personal Data Store) system.

比如，特兰托实验将试点我提出的“数据新政 ” （ New Deal on Data ） ， 用户将通过信任网络软件 — — 如我们的开放PDS（个人数据存储）系统 — — 得到对自身个人数据的更大的控制权。


We hope that the ability to share data safely, while protecting privacy, will encourage individuals, companies, and governments to communicate their ideas widely, and so increase productivity and creativity across the entire city.

我们希望，在安全共享数据的同时保护隐私的能力能够鼓励个人、公司和政府广泛交流各自的想法，从而提高整个城市的生产率和创造力。


But the biggest difficulty in using big data to build a better society is being able to develop a human-scale, intuitive understanding of social physics.

但使用大数据创造更好社会的最大困难是发展人体尺度的对社会物理学（social physics）的直观理解。


Although dense, continuous data and modern computation allow us to map many details about society, and to explain how communities might work, such raw mathematical models contain too many variables and complex relationships for most people to understand.

尽管非常密集，但连续数据和现代运算能让我们勾勒社会的大量细节，而对于解释社区如何运转，这些原始数学模型包含太多的变量和复杂的关系，大部分人难以理解。


What is needed is some kind of dialogue between human intuition and the compelling reality of big data – a dialogue that is currently absent from management and government systems.

我们需要的是某种形式的人类直觉和大数据的令人信服的现实之间的对话 — — 目前的管理和政府体系中缺少这种对话。


If big data is to be deployed effectively, people must be able to understand and interpret the relevant statistics.

要想有效部署大数据，人们就必须能够理解和解读相关统计数字。


This calls for a new understanding of human behavior and social dynamics that goes beyond traditional economic and political models.

这就需要对超越传统经济和政治模型的人类行为和社会动态做出新的理解。


Only by developing the science and language of social physics will we be able to make a world of big data a world in which we want to live.

只有发展社会物理学的科学和语言，我们才能让大数据世界成为我们愿意生活其中的世界。


Peril and Promise in Algeria

阿尔及利亚的危险和前途


MADRID – Five years after the start of the so-called Arab Spring, the hope that initially characterized those revolutions has largely been dashed.

马德里—所谓的阿拉伯之春爆发已经过去了五年，这些革命最初被寄以厚望，如今，这些希望大多落空。


In many cases, the revolutions have evolved into brutal and protracted internal conflicts, with no solution in sight.

在许多国家，革命演变为残酷的长期国内冲突，看不到解决办法。


Amid all of this strife, the international community has paid little attention to countries like Algeria, where the revolutionary spirit was stifled while still incipient.

在所有这些冲突中，国际社会几乎没人关注阿尔及利亚等国家。 阿尔及利亚的革命精神尚未完全萌发便被扼杀。


But Algeria’s fate is back on the world’s radar – and not a moment too soon.

但阿尔及利亚的命运已经进入了国际社会的视野 — — 差一点就来不及了。


On February 7, Algeria’s parliament approved a new package of constitutional reforms, which, among other things, limit presidents to two terms (President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the last surviving leader of Algeria’s war of independence against France, has been in office since 1999) and recognize some fundamental freedoms.

2月7日，阿尔及利亚议会批准了宪政改革方案。 该方案规定总统只能担任两届（总统波特弗利卡，最后一位尚在人世的阿尔及利亚独立战争领导人，自1999年以来一直担任这一职位 ） ， 并承认了一些基本自由。


These steps, in the making since 2011, aim to strengthen Algeria’s democratic standing; but they have been widely criticized as insufficient.

这些从2011年开始酝酿的措施旨在增强阿尔及利亚的民主；但很多人批评阿尔及利亚做得还不够。


What is not in doubt is that the reforms come at a sensitive time, when Algeria is plagued by political and economic uncertainty.

毫无疑问，改革出现在一个敏感的时刻，阿尔及利亚正面临政治和经济不确定性。


The “consensus” that supposedly shapes Algerian politics has, in fact, paralyzed decision-making for many years now.

事实上，左右阿尔及利亚政治的“共识”多年来一直让决策处于瘫痪状态。


With the ailing Bouteflika not seen in public for more than a year, important questions have emerged about how the 2019 presidential election will play out.

疾病缠身的本特弗利卡已经有一年多时间没有出现在公共视野中，对于2019年总统选举的结果问题重重。


Efforts over the last three years to curtail the power of the security and intelligence services – in September, Mohamed Mediene, who had been chief of the intelligence services since 1990, was forced to retire – are just one source and manifestation of domestic political tension.

过去三年来削减安全和情报部门权力的努力 — — 9月，1990年以来一直担任情报部门主管的梅德尼（Mohamed Mediene）被迫退休 — — 只是问题之一，彰显出国内政治的紧张局面。


Significant external challenges have exacerbated Algeria’s situation.

重大外部挑战加剧了阿尔及利亚的状况。


In particular, with the oil and gas industry accounting for fully 97% of Algeria’s export income, the sharp decline in oil prices since June 2014 has underscored the unsustainability of the country’s economic model.

特别是，石油天然气行业占阿尔及利亚出口收入的97 % ， 2014年6月以来的油价暴跌让阿尔及利亚经济模式难以为继。


Falling oil revenues mean that Algeria’s government cannot maintain the broad array of subsidies that traditionally served as a social balm, helping prevent protest.

石油收入的下降意味着阿尔及利亚政府无法维持传统上作为社会稳定剂、有助于防止动乱的各种补贴。


The government has already had to increase some taxes, while raising prices for fuel, electricity, and gas.

政府已经不得不提高一些税收，同时对燃料、电力和天然气涨价。


If the price of oil does not rise soon, and Algeria’s leaders are forced to take more drastic measures, social stability could be jeopardized.

如果油价不迅速止跌回升，而阿尔及利亚领导人被迫采取更加猛烈的措施，社会稳定有可能崩溃。


To be sure, some factors may help to stave off social unrest – namely, the population’s memories of the brutal civil war of the 1990s, in which more than 150,000 people were killed.

当然，一些因素有助于遏制社会动荡 — — 阿尔及利亚人民对于20世纪90年代的残酷内战仍然记忆犹新，150,000多人在这场战中被杀。


But, memories fade as time passes, and a new generation of young people lack the same fear of social strife that their parents and grandparents have.

但是，记忆将随时间消退，新一代年轻人可没有父辈和祖父辈所具有的对社会冲突的恐惧。


In this social context, and if economic hardship persists, protests and even revolt may not be a distant prospect.

在这一社会环境下，如果经济困难继续下去，示威乃至暴乱都不是遥远的事情。


To avoid such an outcome, Algeria’s government must work fast to diversify the economy.

为了避免这一结果，阿尔及利亚政府必须尽快实现经济多元化。


But such concerted action will be difficult in the current political environment, especially in view of the government’s increased focus on security challenges in Algeria’s neighborhood.

但这类协调行动在当前政治环境中十分困难，特别是考虑到政府的关注点日益集中在阿尔及利亚周边安全挑战上时。


Given the revolution in Tunisia, the war in Libya, the rebellion of the Tuaregs in Mali, and, most important, the 2013 terrorist attack on Algeria’s large In Amenas gas plant, the country’s leaders are placing an increasingly high priority on regional security.

突尼斯革命、利比亚战争、马里图阿雷格人暴动，以及最重要的2013年阿尔及利亚因阿迈纳斯（In Amenas）天然气厂恐怖袭击，这些事件让阿尔及利亚领导人日益重视地区安全。


Although the constitution explicitly prohibits military intervention in other countries, Algeria has a clear interest – reflected in its foreign policy – in ensuring that its neighbors are stable and capable of dissuading extremist groups.

尽管宪法明确规定禁止阿军干预其他国家，但显然阿尔及利亚十分热心于确保邻国稳定并有能力阻止极端势力 — — 其外交政策就是明证。


For example, in Libya, Algeria has defended a process of inclusive national reconciliation of all forces, in support of efforts by the United Nations to stabilize the country.

比如，在利比亚，阿尔及利亚支持协调各方力量的包容性进程，以支持联合国稳定利比亚的行动。


The United States and Europe have already recognized Algeria’s leadership and cooperation in anti-terror efforts in its neighborhood.

美国和欧洲已经认识到阿尔及利亚对于周边反恐行动的领导作用和合作。


For the European Union, a further strengthening of ties with Algeria is particularly important, given both sides’ interest in the stability of nearby North Africa and the Sahel, as well as Algeria’s potential to help improve the EU’s energy security.

对欧盟来说，进一步加强与阿尔及利亚的关系尤其重要，因为北非和萨赫勒地区周边稳定符合双方的利益，而阿尔及利亚也有助于改善欧盟的能源安全。


One key way Algeria can help improve security cooperation in its region would be to restore diplomatic relations with Morocco.

阿尔及利亚帮助改善地区安全合作的一个关键方法是重建与摩洛哥的外交关系。


True, the countries have been at loggerheads for 40 years, owing to their sovereignty dispute over Western Sahara.

诚然，40年来两国因为对西撒哈拉地区的主权争议而争执不断。


But the economic, commercial, and security-related dividends that renewed cooperation would provide should be enough to persuade them to reconsider this position.

但重启合作所带来的经济、商业和安全相关红利应能足以说服它们重新考虑立场。


If the two North African giants were to recognize their mutual interests and reestablish ties, they would disentangle relations in the Maghreb.

如果这两个北非大国愿意承认共同利益，重建关系，就能理顺马格里布地区的关系。


Algeria’s influence across Africa would also receive a boost.

阿尔及利亚在整个非洲的���响力也会得到提高。


Already, Algeria’s Africa-wide influence may be set to grow.

目前，阿尔及利亚的非洲影响力提高已成定局。


Some have suggested that an Algerian candidate could become Chair of the Commission of the African Union when the current term expires next July.

一些人指出，阿尔及利亚候选人可能在明年7月现任主席任期结束后成为非洲联盟委员会主席。


Here, Algeria’s consistent support for the AU and its commitment to regional security – exemplified in its role in the Mali peace agreement and its hosting of the Libya talks – would speak in its favor.

在这方面，阿尔及利亚对非盟的一贯支持以及对地区安全的付出 — — 其在马里和平协议中所扮演的作用以及主办利比亚谈判就是明证 — — 对它十分有利。


If successful, Algeria would become the first North African country to lead the AU.

如果成功，阿尔及利亚将成为首个领导非盟的北非国家。


The severe challenge posed by falling oil prices and a jittery regional context attest to the urgent need for change in Algeria.

石油价格下跌和严峻的地区环境所带来的严重挑战表明阿尔及利亚急需做出变化。


But if the government acts to unblock the political system, diversify the economy, and ramp up diplomatic efforts, Algeria can emerge stronger and more influential than ever.

但如果阿尔及利亚政府采取行动解放政治制度，实现经济多元化，并加强外交措施，阿尔及利亚能够成为比以往任何时候都更加强大、影响力更强的力量。


The Politics of Machine-Learning Algorithms

机器学习算法的政治学


WASHINGTON, DC – Around 1200 BC, the Shang Dynasty in China developed a factory system to build thousands of huge bronze vessels for use in everyday life and ritual ceremonies.

华盛顿—大约在公元前1200年，中国商朝就已经有工厂系统制造成千上万件青铜器用于日常和祭祀用途。


In this early example of mass production, the process of bronze casting required intricate planning and the coordination of large groups of workers, each performing a separate task in precisely the right order.

在这个早期大生产的例子中，青铜铸造工艺需要错综复杂的规划和大批工人间的协调，这些工人以精准的顺序，各自完成单独的任务。


A similarly complex process went into fashioning the famous army of terracotta warriors that Qin Shi Huang, China’s first emperor, unveiled one thousand years later.

一千年后，类似的复杂工艺也被用于制造著名的秦始皇兵马俑。


According to the Asian Art Museum in San Francisco, the statues “were created using an assembly production system that paved the way for advances in mass production and commerce.”

据旧金山亚洲艺术博物馆，这些雕像“用奠定大生产和商业基础的流水线生产系统制造。 ”


Some scholars have speculated that these early forms of prescriptive-work technologies played a large role in shaping Chinese society.

一些学者猜测，这些早期规范工作（prescriptive-work）技术的形式对中国社会的形成起到了非常重要的作用。


Among other things, they seem to have predisposed people to accept bureaucratic structures, a social philosophy emphasizing hierarchy, and a belief that there is a single right way of doing things.

它们与其他因素一起，让人们接受了强调层级的官僚制度社会哲学，也让人们相信凡事都有简单的正确方法。


When industrial factories were introduced in Europe in the nineteenth century, even staunch critics of capitalism such as Friedrich Engels acknowledged that mass production necessitated centralized authority, regardless of whether the economic system was capitalist or socialist.

当工业化工厂在十九世纪的欧洲诞生时，就连恩格尔这样的资本主义的坚定批评者也承认，大生产是中央集权的必要条件，不管经济制度是资本主义还是社会主义。


In the twentieth century, theorists such as Langdon Winner extended this line of thinking to other technologies.

在二十世纪，兰登·维纳（Langdon Winner）等理论家将这一思路延伸到技术中。


He thought that the atom bomb, for example, should be considered an “inherently political artifact,” because its “lethal properties demand that it be controlled by a centralized, rigidly hierarchical chain of command.”

他认为 ， （ 比如）原子弹应该被视为“固有政治产物 ” ， 因为它的“致命属性要求它由集中化的刚性命令层级链来控制。 ”


Today, we can take that thinking even further.

如今，我们可以将这一思路延伸到更远。


Consider machine-learning algorithms, the most important general-purpose technology in use today.

考虑机器学习算法。 这是当今所运用的最重要的通用技术。


Using real-world examples to mimic human cognitive capacities, these algorithms are already becoming ubiquitous in the workplace.

这些算法用真实世界的例子来模拟人类认知能力，如今已在职场无处不在。


But, to capitalize fully on these technologies, organizations must redefine human tasks as prediction tasks, which are more suited to these algorithms’ strengths.

但要充分利用这些技术，组织必须重新定义人的任务为预测任务（prediction task ） ， 这更契合这些算法的优势。


A key feature of machine-learning algorithms is that their performance improves with more data.

机器学习算法的一个关键特征是它们的表现会随着数据的增加而改进。


As a result, the use of these algorithms creates a technological momentum to treat information about people as recordable, accessible data.

因此，使用这些算法就形成了一种技术动力，将关于人的信息处理为可记录、可调用的数据。


Like the system of mass production, they are “inherently political,” because their core functionality demands certain social practices and discourages others.

就像大生产系统一样，它们具有“固有政治性 ” （ inherently political ） ， 因为它们的核心功能要求某些社会行为、阻碍其他社会行为。


In particular, machine-learning algorithms run directly counter to individuals’ desire for personal privacy.

特别是，机器学习苏散发与个体的隐私渴望直接对立。


A system based on the public availability of information about individual community members might seem amenable to communitarians such as the sociologist Amitai Etzioni, for whom limitations on privacy are a means to enforce social norms.

一个基于关于个别社会成员信息的公开易得性的系统似乎契合社会学家阿米泰·艾奇奥尼（Amitai Etzioni）等社会主义派（communitarians ） ， 他们认为对隐私的限制是执行社会规范的手段。


But, unlike communitarians, algorithms are indifferent to social norms.

但和社会主义派不同，算法不关心社会规范。


Their only concern is to make better predictions, by transforming more and more areas of human life into data sets that can be mined.

它们至关注更好地做出预测，而这可以通过将越来越多的人类生活领域转化为可挖掘的数据集来实现。


Moreover, while the force of a technological imperative turns individualist Westerners into accidental communitarians, it also makes them more beholden to a culture of meritocracy based on algorithmic evaluations.

此外，尽管技术的强制力将个人主义西方人转化为偶然的社会主义派，但它也让他们接受基于算法评估的英才文化。


Whether it is at work, in school, or even on dating apps, we have already become accustomed to having our eligibility assessed by impersonal tools, which then assign us positions in a hierarchy.

不管是在职场还是在校园，甚至是在约会应用中，我们都已经习惯于用非人工具评估我们的资格，然后分配给我们某个层级的位置。


To be sure, algorithmic assessment is not new.

平心而论，算法评估并非新鲜事。


A generation ago, scholars such as Oscar H. Gandy warned that we were turning into a scored-and-ranked society, and demanded more accountability and redress for technology-driven mistakes.

一代人以前，奥斯卡·甘迪（Oscar H. Gandy）等学者就警告说，我们正在转变为一个记录和排名的社会，并要求更多地问责和矫正技术导致的错误。


But, unlike modern machine-learning algorithms, older assessment tools were reasonably well understood.

但和现代机器学习算法不同，旧的评估工具可以理解得相当透彻。


They made decisions on the basis of relevant normative and empirical factors.

它们基于相关的规范性和实证性因子做出决定。


For example, it was no secret that accumulating a lot of credit card debit could hurt one’s creditworthiness.

比如，背负许多信用卡债有损于一个人的信誉，这早已不是什么秘密。


By contrast, new machine-learning technologies plumb the depths of large data sets to find correlations that are predictive but poorly understood.

相反，新机器学习技术深挖大型数据集寻找预测性但没有被很好地认识的相关性。


In the workplace, algorithms can track employees’ conversations, where they eat lunch, and how much time they spend on the computer, telephone, or in meetings.

在职场中，算法能够跟踪员工的对话、他们在哪里吃午饭、在电脑、电话或会议上上花了多少时间等。


And with that data, the algorithm develops sophisticated models of productivity that far surpass our commonsense intuitions.

有了这些数据，算法就能开发远远超过我们的常识直觉的复杂的生产率模型。


In an algorithmic meritocracy, whatever the models demand becomes the new standard of excellence.

在一个算法精英体系中，模型要求什么，什么就成为出色的标准。


Still, technology is not destiny.

尽管如此，技术并非宿命。


We shape it before it shapes us.

我们在技术决定我们之前决定技术。


Business leaders and policymakers can develop and deploy the technologies they want, according to their institutional needs.

商业领袖和决策者可以根据他们的机构需要开发和部署技术。


It is within our power to cast privacy nets around sensitive areas of human life, to protect people from the harmful uses of data, and to require that algorithms balance predictive accuracy against other values such as fairness, accountability, and transparency.

我们有能力在人类生活的敏感区域周围布置一张隐私网，保护人们免受伤害性数据用途的影响，要求算法平衡预测准确性和公平、问责和透明度等价值观。


But if we follow the natural flow of algorithmic logic, a more meritocratic and communitarian culture will be inevitable.

但在我们遵循自然算法逻辑流之前，更精英化和社会主义派的文化是不可避免的。


And this steady transformation will have far-reaching implications for our democratic institutions and political structures.

而这一逐步的变化将深远影响到我们的民主制度和政治结构。


As the China scholars Daniel A. Bell and Zhang Weiwei have noted, the major political alternative to Western liberal-democratic traditions are the communitarian institutions that continue to evolve in China.

中国学者贝淡宁（Daniel A. Bell）和张维维指出，西方自由民主传统过的主要政治替代品便是在中国不断演化的社会主义派制度。


In China, collective decisions are not legitimated by citizens’ explicit consent, and people generally have fewer enforceable rights against the government, particularly when it comes to surveillance.

在中国，集体决定不需要公民明确同意才合法化，一般而言，人们对政府的可执行权利（enforceable right）较少，特别是在监督方面。


An ordinary Chinese citizen’s role in political life is largely limited to participation in local elections.

普通中国老百姓在政治生活中的角色大多只局限于参加地方选举。


The country’s leaders, meanwhile, are selected through a meritocratic process, and consider themselves custodians of the people’s welfare.

与此同时，国家领导人通过英才过程遴选，并自视为人民福祉的监护人。


Liberal democracies are not likely to shift entirely to such a political system.

自由民主不可能完全变为这种政治制度。


But if current trends in business and consumer culture continue, we might soon have more in common with Chinese meritocratic and communitarian traditions than with our own history of individualism and liberal democracy.

但如果当前的商业和消费者文化持续下去，我们很快就会有更多与中国的英才和社会主义派传统，而不是我们自身的个人主义和自由民主传统相近的东西。


If we want to change course, we will have to put our own political imperatives before those of our technologies.

如果我们想要改变趋势，就必须将我们自身的政治责任置于技术之前。


A Sunni-Shia Bridge Too Far

弥合逊尼-什叶分歧任重道远


BAGHDAD – Iraq’s recent parliamentary election, the first since United States troops left the country in 2011, was held amid a rising tide of violence that is fast approaching the levels experienced during the 2005-2007 insurgency.

巴格达—最近，伊拉克举行了自2011年美军撤离后的第一次议会选举。 这次选举是在暴力活动不断升级、直指2005—2007年动乱程度的情况下举行的。


Can the new government restore order and address the many immense challenges that Iraq faces?

新政府能够重建秩序、解决伊拉克所面临的诸多紧迫挑战吗？


The challenges are indeed daunting.

挑战着实棘手。


The authorities must resolve fundamental constitutional questions (such as whether Iraq should be a federal state or a confederation), rebuild civil society, reform state institutions, reconstruct the economy, and end the waste and corruption in the oil sector.

当局必须解决基本宪政问题（如伊拉克应该成为联邦还是邦联 ） 、 重建公民社会、改革国家机构、复兴经济并根除石油部门的浪费和腐败。


But perhaps the most intractable challenge of all is bridging the sectarian rift between the country’s Shia and Sunni citizens.

但或许最艰巨的挑战在于弥合伊拉克什叶派和逊尼派公民之间的宗派分歧。


These fissures are mirrored in other Arab countries (such as Syria, Lebanon, the Gulf countries, and Yemen) and, increasingly, in the wider Muslim world (including Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia).

这一分歧在其他阿拉伯国家也存在（如叙利亚、黎巴嫩、海湾国家和也门 ） ， 并大有席卷穆斯林世界（包括巴基斯坦、马来西亚和印度尼西亚）之势。


Is this a historical aberration, or are Islam’s two largest sects condemned to perpetual mutual hostility?

这只是一个历史插曲，还是伊斯兰教最大的两个宗派已经陷入了持久的对立？


Certainly, there have been periods when the two communities have coexisted peacefully.

毫无疑问，历史上曾有过两派和平共处的时期。


But what matters today is that Shia and Sunni relate to their past differently, and that this historical memory can be distorted – and even invented – to create mistrust and hate.

但如今最重要的是什叶派和逊尼派都强调过去的不同，而历史记忆是可以扭曲 — — 甚至捏造 — — 从而炮制不信任和厌恶的。


The overthrow of the first Muslim dynasty, the staunchly anti-Shia Umayyads, in the year 750, by the Abbasids, who traced their lineage to the Prophet Muhammad’s uncle, raised hopes, albeit short-lived, of a Sunni-Shia rapprochement.

顽固反什叶派的第一个穆斯林王朝 — — 倭马亚王朝（白衣大食）在公元750年被自称是先知穆罕默德叔父的后裔阿巴斯王朝（黑衣大食）推翻。


The 500 years of Abbasid reign that followed provide many valuable illustrations of how these two communities subsequently related to each other.

这带来了短暂的逊尼派-什叶派和解希望。 阿巴斯王朝统治的500年涌现出大量日后两派互相援引的极有价值的事件。


In particular, there is much to be learned from the different legacies of the caliph al-Nasir (1180-1225) and the last Abbasid caliph, al-Musta’sim (1242-1258).

特别是，可以从内綏尔哈里发（al-Nasir，1180—1225）和阿巴斯王朝末代哈里发穆��台绥木（al-Musta’sim，1242—1258）的不同遗产中得到很多教训。


The rule of al-Nasir – who viewed the Shia as an intrinsic part of the Islamic community and sought to treat all of his subjects equally – was characterized by a marked decrease in sectarian tensions.

内綏尔认为什叶派是伊斯兰教的固有组成部分，并试图平等对待他的所有子民，在他统治期间，宗派紧张大为缓和。


By contrast, Sunni-Shia clashes – including killings, arson, and other violence – were common during al-Musta’sim’s rule.

相反，穆斯台绥木统治期间，逊尼派-什叶派冲突 — — 包括杀戮、焚烧和其他暴力 — — 十分普遍。


These examples demonstrate the importance of good leadership when communities that uphold different claims to the truth are subject to the same political authority – especially when these communities seek assurance that their survival is not threatened.

这些例子表明，当存在持有对真相的不同主张的宗派共存于同一个政治当局之下 — — 特别是这些宗派都试图确保自身生存不受威胁时，好的领导是至关重要的。


Iraq’s current political leaders need to learn from this past and ensure that none of the country’s communities face marginalization or discrimination – lessons that apply throughout the Muslim world.

伊拉克的现任政治领导人需要从这些历史中吸取教训，并保证伊拉克的所有派别都不会被边缘化或受到歧视，这些教训是从穆斯林世界的全部历史中提炼出来的。


In Pakistan, for example, there are sectarian killings almost daily; in Malaysia, the tiny Shia population is viewed as an existential threat; and incendiary language dominates discourse about rival sects in Wahhabi circles in Saudi Arabia and far beyond.

比如，在巴基斯坦，几乎每天都有宗派杀戮；在马来西亚，为数很少的什叶派被视为生存威胁；而在沙特阿拉伯和其他许多国家，瓦哈比派在讨论敌对派别时动辄扬言烧杀抢掠。


Politics and power struggles explain much of the violence and mistrust.

政治和权力斗争能够解释这一暴力和不信任的大部分原因。


Fear of Iranian-led hegemony, for example, has focused Gulf leaders’ minds on their Shia population’s loyalty.

比如，海湾国家领导人认定，担心以伊朗为首的霸权主义是其什叶派人口忠心的基础。


Malaysia’s political parties use anti-Shia animus to spread fear, helping to attract votes and consolidate power.

马来西亚政党以反什叶派为目标散布恐惧，以此吸引选票、巩固权力。


Syria and its regional allies are determined to protect a new regional balance of power that shifted in their favor following the US-led invasion of Iraq.

在美国领导的入侵伊拉克战争打响后，叙利亚及其地区盟友决心捍卫朝对其有利的方向发展的新的地区实力平衡。


But political calculation cannot explain everything.

但政治算计不能解释一切现象。


The fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 provides a good example of how a political event, viewed through a sectarian lens, can be interpreted differently.

2003年萨达姆·侯赛因的倒台为我们提供了一个很好的例子，说明了同一件政治事件是如何被不同的宗派做出不同解读的。


The US destruction of the Iraqi state brought about a precarious new order that sought to redress years of Sunni dominance by favoring the Shia.

美国对伊拉克国家的摧毁带来了不稳定的新秩序，该秩序试图通过向什叶派倾斜纠正多年来的逊尼派主导。


However, the shock of sudden Sunni disempowerment generated a discourse, widely shared in the Muslim world, in which the Shia are guilty of collusion in the US occupation of the country – a view reinforced by events in Syria.

但是，逊尼派突然失去权力所带来的冲击在穆斯林世界引起了轩然大波，结论是什叶派与美国勾结占领了伊拉克 — — 这一观点因为叙利亚事件而进一步强化了。


According to this thesis, the Shia simply reverted to their “historic” role as wreckers and fifth columnists.

根据这一说法，什叶派只是恢复了其肇事者和第五纵队的“历史”角色。


Was it not the case, it is claimed, that the Shia also colluded with the Mongols in the fall of Baghdad in 1258, culminating in the death of the last Abbasid caliph and the destruction of the Abbasid Empire, the “universal state” of Muslims?

在历史上，1258年什叶派还和蒙古人勾结导致巴格达陷落，阿巴斯王朝末代哈里发因此丧命，穆斯林的“大一统 ” （ universal state ） — —阿巴斯王朝因此灭亡。


Several medieval Muslim historians pointed to the role of the Shia vizier Ibn al-‘Alqami, arguing that he plotted with the Mongols to bring down the caliphate.

一些中世纪穆斯林历史学家指出，什叶派宰相伊本·阿尔恰米（Ibn al - ‘ Alqami）与蒙古人合作灭掉了阿巴斯王朝。


Once the preserve of a handful of scholars, the Ibn al-‘Alqami story now plays a prominent part in today’s Sunni- Shia disputes.

阿尔恰米的故事曾经是一些学者的禁脔，而如今，它成了逊尼派-什叶派纠纷的核心部分。


Indeed, “‘Alaqima,” the plural form of the Arabic name “‘Alqami,” is now applied to the Shia as short-hand for treachery.

事实上 ， “ 阿尔恰米分子”即来源于阿拉伯名字“阿尔恰米 ” ， 现在被用来代称什叶派，意指他们是变节者。


Social media forums are replete with polemics about the Shia role in assisting both Mongol and US invaders.

社交媒体论坛充斥着关于什叶派勾结蒙古和美国侵略者的辩论。