Perhaps the most visible political support for absentee agriculture is in Liberia, a small West African country where civil war destroyed agriculture, rendering the population dependent on food imports, even today.

对远距离农业给予最明确政治支持的国家大概当属利比里亚。 这个西非小国的农业在内战中遭遇重大打击，导致国家至今依然需要依赖进口食品来养活整个人口。


President Johnson-Sirleaf, recognizing that educated people could contribute much to an agriculture revival, launched her “Back to the Soil” campaign in June 2008 in large part to encourage urban dwellers to farm.

当约翰逊-瑟利夫总统意识到受过良好教育的人们能够为农业振兴贡献很大力量时，她随即于2008年6月启动了“回归沃土”活动，尤其是鼓励城市居民投身农业。


To be sure, absentee farming by elites and educated urban workers can’t solve all of Africa’s urgent food needs.

有一点可以确定，那就是由精英和受过教育的城市人所构建的远程农业无法解决当前非洲所有迫在眉睫的食品问题。


Moreover, absentee farmers face unexpected problems.

此外，这些远程农业从业者们还会遇到意想不到的难题。


Because they don’t visit their fields often, they rely heavily on relatives and friends.  When I decided to farm wheat for the first time this spring on leased land in my childhood village, my mother agreed to supervise plowing, planting, and harvesting.

因为无法经常去地里查看，他们很大程度上只能依赖自己的亲戚朋友去照看田地。 今年春天，当我在从小长大的乡村里租了一块地并决定种一些小麦时，我母亲答应帮我定期查看播种、浇水和施肥的情况。


Without her help, I might not have farmed at all.

如果没有她的帮助，我也许根本无法进行耕作。


Even with mother’s help, I have worries.

但即使在母亲的帮助下我依然有诸多担忧。


Although I grew up around wheat fields, my knowledge of farming is thin.

虽然自小在麦田周围长大，可我关于农耕的知识却十分贫瘠。


Fertilizer and spraying were both more expensive than I thought.

肥料和杀虫剂的价格都比我想象的要贵。


While my wheat stalks are sprouting on schedule, I now fear that at harvest time – in November – prices will fall and I won’t recoup my costs.

当一棵棵麦苗正按部就班地发芽时，我却开始担心到了11月收获时小麦价格会跌，那我就连本都收不回来了。


One key tool is the mobile phone.

这时最关键的工具就是手机。


My hopes for success are buoyed by my ability to call my mother inexpensively and discuss the farm.

我重新浮现出对成功的希冀，因为我能给母亲打电话同她商量农场的事情，电话费也不贵。


We even decided over the phone what kind of pesticide to use and which tractor company to hire.

我们甚至在通话中决定用哪种杀虫剂以及雇佣哪家拖拉机公司。


Because they know both the tastes of fellow city dwellers and rural conditions, many urban farmers are succeeding.

由于这些城市农夫对城市居民的喜好以及农村的状况都很熟悉，所以其中许多人都取得了成功。


In fact, some city dwellers don’t even bother with acquiring land or gaining distant help. Certain crops can be grown in their own homes.

事实上，一些城市居民根本无需担心购买土地或者获取远程协助的问题，因为一些特定种类的农作物在他们自己家中就可种植。


James Memusi, an accountant, grows mushrooms in a spare bedroom, selling them to nearby hotels and supermarkets.

会计师詹姆斯·麦姆锡就利用家里一间空卧室种植蘑菇，并将收获卖给临近的饭店和超市。


Nevertheless, most people living in Africa’s cities have access to land in the countryside, which is why Liberia’s government rightly highlights the potential for farm expansion.

不过大多数住在非洲城市里的人都有办法在农村弄到土地，这就是为什么利比里亚政府如此肯定地强调农业的拓展潜力。


In a new advertising campaign rolled out this summer, the authorities declared, “The soil is a bank; invest in it.”

在今年夏天发起的一项新运动的推广中，官方就是这样宣传的 ： “ 土地就是座银行，往里面投资吧！ ”


In Liberia, the main push is to reduce imports of staples such as rice and tomatoes.

在利比里亚，主要动力是为了降低类似大米和西红柿等主食的进口额。


In more prosperous countries, African elites are motivated by a complex interplay of national pride, dietary concerns, and the pursuit of profit.

而在一些更为富裕的国家，非洲的精英们被相互作用的复杂原因驱动着，这些原因之中既掺杂国家自豪感和对食品短缺的担忧，又出于利益的驱使。


In Zambia, for example, Sylva Banda ignited a craze for authentic traditional meals two decades ago with a chain of popular restaurants.

比方说希尔维亚·班达20年前在赞比亚开了一系列广受喜爱的餐馆，用真正的本地菜引领起一股时尚潮流。


Now, ordinary Lusakans want to cook similar meals in their own homes, driving demand for farmers who produce such delicacies as dried pumpkin, “black jack” leaves, and fresh Okra.

而现在，普通卢萨卡市民也想要在家中自己烹饪相似的菜肴，这就需要越来越多的农民们去生产更多的精细食品，比如南瓜干 、 “ 黑杰克”菜叶和新鲜秋葵。


Similarly, in Nairobi, Miringo Kinyanjui, another woman entrepreneur, is supplying unrefined – and more nutritious – maize and wheat flour.

类似的，在内罗毕有一位名叫米林格·金亚朱尼的女企业家正在生产更有营养的粗磨玉米面和小麦粉。


In another move to distinguish her ingredients from Western versions, Kinyanjui also sells through grocery stores flour flavored with Amarathan, a green vegetable that grows around Kenya.

而将她供应的食品同西方食品进一步区分开来的则是金亚朱尼同样通过食品店售卖一种“阿玛拉桑”口味的面粉，而“阿玛拉桑”是一种在肯尼亚全国都有种植的绿色蔬菜类植物。


The revival of traditional foods has attracted the attention of large multinational corporations.

传统食品的重新流行吸引了许多跨国公司的注意。


Last year, Unilever’s Kenyan branch ran a “taste our culture” campaign in support of its line of traditional East African herbs and spices.

就在去年，联合利华公司驻肯尼亚的子公司就启动了一项“品尝我们的文化”活动来推广他们混合了东非香草和香料的一系列产品。


Such campaigns go hand-in-hand with expanded farming, because sellers of these foods prefer nearby growers – even if these growers increasingly live in the city.

这些活动都与农业规模的扩大紧密相关，因为这些卖家都更偏爱临近的种植者，即便这些“农夫”越来越都是些城里人。


Building Africa’s Scientific Talent

培养非洲的科学人才


TORONTO – Ten years ago, South African physicist Neil Turok made a bold prediction: the world’s next Einstein will be from Africa.

发自多伦多 — — 十年前，南非物理学家尼尔·图罗克（Neil Turok）做出了一个大胆的预言：下一位爱因斯坦将来自于非洲。


A decade later, it is worth considering whether the continent is any closer to finding the next global genius.

如今十年已过，也是时候思考一下非洲大陆是否更接近于诞生下一个全球性天才了。


Statistically, there is indeed a high probability that it will happen.

从统计上来说这确实很有可能。


By 2050, 40% of the world’s young people will be African.

到2050年，世界上40％的年轻人将是非洲人。


By virtue of demographics alone, it stands to reason that Africa is destined to generate prodigies in science or technology.

仅就人口结构统计数据来看，非洲注定会产生众多科学技术方面的神童。


Africans have led the world in science before.

非洲人曾一度在科学上领先世界。


In fact, some of humanity’s greatest innovations – from vaccines to brain surgery – were pioneered by Africans.

事实上，一些人类最伟大的创新 — — 从疫苗到脑手术 — — 都是由非洲人开创的。


One of the oldest measuring devices ever used, the Lebombo Bone, was carved by people believed to have lived some 35,000 years ago in modern-day eSwatini (Swaziland).

迄今为止发现的最古老测量设备之一列彭波骨（Lebombo bone）被考证为大约3.5万年前生活在当今伊斯瓦蒂尼（原名斯威士兰）的人类所造。


In other words, mathematics itself is an African invention.

换句话说，数学本身就是非洲的发明。


For decades, science and policy luminaries like Calestous Juma, a global advocate for science-driven sustainable development, and Wangari Maathai, an environmental activist and Nobel laureate, championed Africa’s science agenda.

几十年来，众多科学和政策杰出人物 — — 比如以科学为导向的可持续发展的全球倡导者卡莱斯图斯·尤马（Calestous Juma）以及环境事务活动家和诺贝尔奖获得者旺加里·马塔伊（Wangari Maathai ） — —都支持非洲的科学议程。


With these visionaries now gone, Africa needs a new brain trust to inspire future generations of ethical and public-spirited researchers.

随着这些有远见者纷纷离世，非洲需要一批新智囊团来激励未来一代具备道德和公益精神的研究人员。


But how do we ensure Africa discovers, supports, and develops innovative, game-changing scientists?

但是我们如何确保非洲能去发现，支持和培养出那些改变游戏规则的创新科学家？


The missing element has been an African education system that supports innovation in research, and that provides the next African revolutionary scientist with the training and support he or she needs – in Africa.

而缺失的因素其实是一套支持研究创新，可以 — — 而且是在非洲本地 — — 为下一位革命性非洲科学家提供他或她所需要的培训和支持的非洲教育体系。


Across the continent, there is a growing consensus among governments that education and research in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is critical for economic growth and development.

纵观整个非洲大陆，各国政府已经日渐形成了共识，认定科学，技术，工程和数学的教育和研究对经济增长和发展至关重要。


At the moment, however, too many of Africa’s young researchers see no option but to go abroad for school and work.

然而目前非洲的许多年轻研究人员别无选择，只能出国学习和工作。


That can change, but only with concrete investments in homegrown talent.

这个局面可以被改变，但只能通过对本土人才的切实投资来改变。


This means rethinking the entire education system in Africa.

这意味着要对整个非洲教育体系进行重新思考。


Three priorities stand out.

而其中有三个事项必须优先解决


First, African countries need to fix the knowledge pipeline.

首先，非洲国家需要修复知识输送管道。


That means investing in teacher training, improved learning outcomes, retention of girls in STEM courses, supporting research earlier in university, helping young researchers through so-called sandwich programs, establishing university-private sector labs on campus, and more.

这意味着投资教师培训，提高学习成果，保留科技工程学科中的女生，为大学研究的初级阶段提供支持，通过所谓的三明治计划帮扶年轻研究人员，在校园内建立大学-私营部门实验室等多项举措。


Second, Africa needs indigenous knowledge creation.

其次，非洲需要实现立足本地的知识创造。


This requires facilitating both fundamental and applied research and creating the necessary infrastructure for the dissemination of research outcomes.

这需要同时促进基础和应用研究，并为研究成果的传播创造必要的基础设施。


This could include making more funding available to researchers and research institutions, as well as promoting open sources for knowledge sharing.

这将包括为研究人员和研究机构提供更多资金以及推动开源性的知识共享。


The third priority is putting knowledge into practice.

第三个优先事项是将知识付诸实践。


This could involve making scientific information accessible to the general public and innovators, and supporting public-private partnerships to pilot, demonstrate, and apply research outcomes, thereby creating jobs addressing public problems.

这可能涉及向公众和创新者提供科学信息，并支持公私伙伴关系去试验，展示和应用相关研究成果，从而创造一批专门应对公共问题的就业岗位。


A good example is Zipline, which deploys drone technology to deliver blood transfusions to remote areas of Rwanda.

对此滑索公司（Zipline）就是一个很好的例子，它采用无人机向卢旺达的偏远地区输送血液。


To deploy this technology, which is based on American research but piloted in-country, Zipline signed agreements with the aviation authority and the ministry of health, among others, and a public-private partnership was set up to fund the program.

为了部署这项基于美国研究但在卢旺达试行的技术，滑索与航空管理局和卫生部等签署了协议并建立了公私合作伙伴关系以资助该计划。


After successfully deploying the technology in Rwanda, it is currently being rolled out in Ghana.

该技术在卢旺达成功部署后目前正被引入加纳。


Zipline has saved hundreds of lives and demonstrated the potential of technology transfer with large-scale impact.

它挽救了数百人的生命，并展示了具备大规模影响力的技术转让所能发挥出来的潜力。


The Next Einstein Forum (NEF), an initiative of the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) and the brainchild of Turok, supported partly by the Mastercard Foundation, is demonstrating that Africa produces strong scientific talent.

由非洲数学科学研究所倡导建立的下一位爱因斯坦论坛（The Next Einstein Forum ） — —也是图罗克的创意并由万事达基金会提供部分支持 — — 表明非洲能产生出高端科学人才。


The NEF focuses on convening Africa’s innovators to highlight breakthrough discoveries and catalyze scientific collaboration for human development.

论坛致力于召集非洲的创新者去彰显突破性发现并促进人类发展方面的科学合作。


Since the first cohort of NEF Fellows was selected in 2015, the program has highlighted the contributions of young African researchers who are working to tackle some of the world’s toughest scientific and technological challenges.

自2015年甄选出第一批论坛研究员以来，论坛已经将许多致力于解决世界最棘手科技挑战的非洲年轻研究人员的贡献宣扬于世。


NEF’s current cohort includes Somalia’s Abdigani Diriye, who created a blockchain-enabled lending platform in Kenya and was recently named one of Africa’s top 30 innovators; Nigeria’s Peter Ngene, whose work on nanotechnologies is being used to improve renewable energy and who also recently created a hydrogen-based eye sensor that detects lactose intolerance; and Vinet Coetzee of South Africa, whose research in non-invasive measures of health has led to a patent application for a device that could detect malaria.

论坛目前的研究队伍包括来自索马里的阿布迪加尼·迪里耶（Abdigani Diriye ） ， 他在肯尼亚创建了一个以区块链为基础的贷款平台，最近被评为非洲30大创新者之一；来自尼日利亚的彼得·涅讷（Peter Ngene ） ， 他在纳米技术方面的工作正用于改进可再生能源，最近还创造了一种能够检测乳糖不耐受症的氢基眼传感器；还有南非的文奈特·科特兹（Vinet Coetzee ） ， 他在非侵入性健康测量方面的研究已经产生了一项疟疾检测装置的专利。


With so many complex issues vying for attention today, Africa will need innovative education and research models.

在有许多复杂问题都要得到关注的今天，非洲需要整套创新的教育和研究模式。


But as long as the NEF and similar efforts continue to nurture the continent’s brightest young scientists and tackle systemic issues like funding, mobility, and research infrastructure, the odds are good that those leading the search for solutions will be the very people Turok predicted.

但只要下一位爱因斯坦论坛和类似的项目继续对非洲大陆那些最聪明的年轻科学家加以培养并解决诸如资金，流动性和研究基础设施等系统性问题，那么解决方案研究的学术带头人中就很可能涌现出图罗克预言中的下一位爱因斯坦。


Improving African Women’s Health Through Financial Inclusion

通过金融包容改善非洲女性健康


ACCRA – In late October, the World Health Organization’s Regional Office for Africa signed an agreement with the United Nations International Telecommunication Union (ITU).

阿克拉—去年10月，世界卫生组织非洲地区办公室与联合国国际电信联盟（ITU）签署了一份协议。


The aim of the unlikely partnership is to encourage the use of digital services “to save lives and improve people’s health.”

这一看似不可能的合作关系的目标是鼓励使用数字服务“拯救生命、改善人民健康 ” 。


But perhaps the pact’s most innovative feature is the vow to merge financial inclusion strategies with modern health-care delivery.

但也许该协议最具创新性的部分在于它承诺将金融包容策略与现代医疗服务相结合。


Financial inclusion is a proven pathway to improving people’s health, especially the health of women in developing countries.

金融包容是证实了的改善人民健康的有效方法，特别是发展中国家女性的健康。


Women who can easily access bank accounts or cash payment options tend to invest more in their businesses and families.

能够轻松获得银行账户或现金支付选项的女性，往往会为她们的企业和家庭投入更多。


In turn, they live healthier, more satisfying lives.

反过来，她们也生活得更健康、更满足。


Yet, too often, initiatives like the one signed in October focus on one or the other – e-health or financial products like insurance.

但是，常常发生的情况是，类似10月份签署的协议这样的计划，总是关注其中之一 — — 电子健康（e-health）或金融产品（如保险 ） 。


Because Africans’ ability to earn and save money can be the difference between good care and no care at all, this represents a missed opportunity to help patients and build more resilient communities.

非洲人赚钱和存钱的能力决定了他能获得好医疗还是根本看不起病，因此这是一个被错过的帮助患者、构建恢复力更强的社会的机会。


The cost of this choice is disproportionately high for Africa’s women.

这一选择给非洲女性造成的代价尤其高昂。


In Nigeria, for example, 400,000 women live with obstetric fistula, a disabling condition often caused by complications in childbirth.

比如，在尼日利亚，有400,000女性身患产瘘，这是一种致残的分娩并发症。


In Tanzania, some 8,000 women die annually during pregnancy or delivery; most of these deaths could be prevented.

在坦桑尼亚，每年都有大约8,000女性死于妊娠或分娩；这些死亡大部分是可以避免的。


And, across the continent, women’s life expectancy at birth is just 58 years, compared to more than 80 years in developed countries.

而就整个非洲而言，女性出生寿命预期只有58年，而发达国家高达80多年。


Progress is being made to connect women’s health solutions and financial inclusion.

人们正在努力将女性健康方案与金融包容联系起来，并在不断取得进步。


At a recent conference in Dar es Salaam, experts from the technology and financial services sector joined investors, philanthropists, and development specialists to devise ways to make finance work for Africa’s women.

在达累斯萨拉姆举行的最新会议上，来自科技和金融服务业的专家与投资者、慈善家和发展专家一起为非洲女性制定金融工作方法。


Through programs like these, development experts can advocate for digital solutions as a means of social and financial empowerment.

通过类似于此的计划，发展专家能够宣传作为社会和金融赋权手段的数字方案。


Unfortunately, cooperation like the pact signed in October is the exception, rather than the norm.

不幸的是，类似于10月所签署的协议的合作计划只是例外，而不是常例。


Banks, regulators, finance ministries, and telecommunications companies all frequently gather to consider financial inclusion without the local and global health community.

银行、监管者、财政部门和电信企业都在频繁开会讨论金融包容性，但并没有将本地和全球医疗界包括进去。


This must change if we are to build more inclusive platforms for African patients and clients.

如果我们想要为非洲患者和客户建立更加包容性的平台，这一点必须改变。


The first step is to identify missed opportunities.

第一步是认识错失的机会。


A big one stems from the disparate approaches to bringing financial services and digitized health care to rural parts of Africa.

一个大机会是采取不同方法将金融服务和数字化医疗服务推广到非洲农村地区。


At the moment, banks and mobile network operators are working to expand their digital banking services to unbanked and under-banked clients.

目前，银行和移动网络运营商正致力于扩大数字银行服务，以覆盖没有银行账户或银行服务不足的客户。


At the same time, community health workers (CHWs) are operating in these regions to prevent, treat, and refer patients to clinics.

与此同时，社区卫生工作者（CHW）正在这些地区展开预防、治疗和分诊工作。


Combining these efforts makes sense, because both initiatives rely heavily on trust.

将这些措施相结合非常有意义，因为两项计划都非常依赖信任。


Through pre-established networks, CHWs could augment their e-health offerings with financial products, like mobile cash payment systems.

通过预先构建的网络，CHW能够利用金融产品，如移动现金支付系统来扩大电子健康服务覆盖面。


Broadening digital disease management and access to health information to include financial wellbeing would create natural synergies.

扩大数字疾病管理和健康信息普及以纳入金融福祉能产生自然的协同效应。


While there are some concerns that adding responsibilities to CHWs could undermine health-care quality, a fragmented approach to prosperity is even more damaging.

有人担心增加CHW的责任会拖累医疗质量，但碎片化的繁荣观弊端更大。


Once opportunities for expansion are identified, other issues will need to be addressed before women’s health and financial inclusion programs can be widened.

在认识到扩大的机会后，在女性健康和金融包容性计划得到推广之前，还需要解决其他问题。


For starters, a lack of sex-disaggregated data makes it difficult to draft policies based on health quality and financial need.

首先，缺乏按性别区分的数据导致难以根据健康质量和金融需要来制定政策。


Although some countries, such as Burundi and Senegal, are working to improve their gender-specific data collection, a broader, more coordinated push is needed.

尽管布隆迪和塞内加尔等国家正致力于改善具体的性别数据收集，但仍需要范围更广、更具协作性的计划。


Raising the region’s financial literacy will be another challenge.

增进地区的金融知识是另一项挑战。


The ability to understand and execute matters of personal finance is the weakest link in transforming women’s opportunities through financial inclusion.

理解和执行个人金融事务的能力是通过金融包容改变女性机会的链条上的最弱一环。


Moreover, financial literacy is a pre-requisite for the rollout of financing initiatives, such as programs that support women-led small and micro-enterprises.

此外，金融知识是启动融资计划 — — 如支持女性领导的小微企业 — — 的先决条件。


If financial literacy levels can be raised, women can access resources such as land and credit, tools that hold the keys to business development, social mobility, and personal growth.

如果能够提升金融知识水平，女性就能获得土地和信用等资源，这些工具是商业发展、社会流动性和个人成长的关键。


Progress has been made in leveling the playing field, but these gains must be sustained.

在构建公平竞技场方面，我们取得了一些进步，但必须保持势头。


The agreement between the WHO and the ITU will help promote wealth creation in parts of Africa where access to health care and financial services is lacking.

世卫组织和ITU的协议有助于促进缺乏医疗和金融服务的非洲地区的财富创造。


To maintain this momentum, deeper commitments are needed, especially from the global health community.

要保持这一势头，需要更深度的承诺，特别是来自全球医疗界的承诺。


But, however African governments proceed in digitizing their health and financial services offerings, women’s needs must remain at the center of any solution.

但是，不论非洲各国政府如何推进健康和金融服务数字化，女性的需要都必须作为他们的方案的核心。


Closing the Youth Apathy Gap

填补青年冷漠缺口


NAIROBI – When the United Nations’ member countries adopted the Sustainable Development Goals two years ago, they committed themselves to reduce substantially “the proportion of youth not in employment, education, or training.”

内罗毕—两年前，联合国成员国采纳可持续发展目标（SDG）时，它们自我承诺要可持续地减少“被排除在就业、教育和培训之外的青年的比例 ” 。


That commitment will be virtually impossible to fulfill, unless political participation by young people increases considerably.

除非年轻人的政治参与能够显著增长，否则这一承诺几乎不可能实现。


Young people are critical to progress.

年轻人是进步的关键。


As US President Barack Obama put it in a 2015 speech in Nairobi, “no country can achieve its full potential unless it draws on the talents of all its people.”

美国总统巴拉克在2015 年的内罗毕演讲中指出 ， “ 除非一个国家能够依赖全体人民的才华，否则它就无法实现全部潜能。


And youth now comprise a large share of those people – 18% of the world’s population, to be precise.

”如今，青年构成了这些人民中的很大一部分 — — 准确地说，他们占据了世界人口的18 % 。


The share is even larger in much of the developing world.

在大部分发展中国家，这个比例还会更高。


The median age of Africa’s population is just 19.5 years.

非洲人口的中位年龄只有19.5岁。


Given their numbers, not to mention rising education and literacy rates, young people can make a world of difference, shaping political discourse and electoral outcomes.

从这些数据看 — — 更不用说不断提高的教育水平和识字率了 — — 年轻人能够改变世界，影响政治进程和选举结果。


But that requires them to be engaged and active.

但这需要他们参与和活跃。


In the United Kingdom, most young people wish to remain in the European Union.

在英国，大部分年轻人想要留在欧盟。


As a Lord Ashcroft poll showed, 73% of those aged 18-24, and 62% of those aged 25-34, voted accordingly in last year’s referendum.

阿什克罗夫特勋爵（Lord Ashcroft）调查表明，73%的18—24岁群体，以及62%的25—34岁群体，在去年的全民公决中投票赞成留欧。


But most young British did not actually show up to cast their votes, allowing the UK’s older, predominantly pro-Brexit cohorts to win the day.

但大部分英国年轻人实际上并没有行使投票权，这使得英国年长者 — — 他们大多支持退欧 — — 赢得了胜利。


Presumably having learned their lesson from the Brexit referendum, young Britons contributed to an unexpected victory for Labour in June’s snap general election.

想必是从退欧公投中汲取了教训，英国年轻人在6月份的临时大选中帮助工党赢得了出人意料的胜利。


In Kenya’s presidential election, held last month, 51% of registered voters were below the age of 35 years.

在上个月举行的肯尼亚总统选举中，51%的注册选民年龄低于35岁。


Although the Supreme Court annulled the results and ordered a fresh vote, owing to electoral irregularities and illegalities, large numbers of young people are likely to turn out again.

尽管最高法院因为选举违规和违法行为推翻了结果，勒令重新投票，但大量年轻人可能会再次走向投票箱。


Unfortunately, Kenya is the exception that proves the rule.

不幸的是，肯尼亚只是一个证明了规则的例外。


Political apathy among young people, like that seen in the Brexit referendum, remains pervasive worldwide.

年轻人的政治冷漠 — — 就像英国退欧公投所表现的那样 — — 仍然在全球范围内普遍存在。


In many regions of Africa, for example, young people are disillusioned with politics, convinced that wealthy older people will always prevail and advance their own interests, often at the expense of younger generations.

比如，在非洲大部，年轻人对政治早已幻灭，认定胜者永远是富有的年长者，他们推动自己的利益，牺牲年轻一代的利益。


This sense of disempowerment is threatening to turn the developing world’s youth bulge into a youth curse – with serious potential consequences.

这种失权（disempowerment）感有可能让发展中世界的青年膨胀（youth bulge，即青年占人口多数的现象）演变为青年诅咒 — — 并带来严重的潜在后果。


The Arab Spring uprisings, which led to violence and instability in most affected countries, were fueled largely by desperate young people demanding rights and opportunities.

阿拉伯之春暴乱导致了大部分受影响国家陷入暴力和动荡，其背后的主要推动力正是绝望的年轻人要求权利和机会。


To avoid such outcomes, young people need to be part of their countries’ political life, able to advance their own vision of the future.

要避免这样的结果，年轻人必须成为国家政治生活的一部分，能够推动他们自己的未来愿景。


As young Kenyans repeated during the recent election campaign, “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.”

就像肯尼亚年轻人在最近的选战中一再强调的 ， “ 不入庙堂，便为鱼肉。 ”


So what can be done to increase political awareness and participation among young people?

那么，如何提高年轻人的政治意识和参与呢？


In Kenya, government efforts have focused on the creation of three institutions: the Ministry of Public Service, Youth, and Gender Affairs, the Youth Enterprise Development Fund, and the National Youth Council.

在肯尼亚，政府措施的重点是建立了三个机构：公共服务、青年和性别事务部、青年创业发展基金，以及国家青年委员会。


Though somewhat dysfunctional, these institutions have helped to empower Kenyan youth, driving the high election turnout last month.

尽管这些机构功能未必完善，但仍有助于赋权肯尼亚青年，为上个月选举的高投票率立下了功劳。


But perhaps the most effective approach to closing the apathy gap focuses on initiatives led by young people themselves.

但填补冷漠缺口的最有效的方针集中在由年轻人自己领导的项目上。


In Nigeria, young people spearheaded the Not Too Young to Run campaign, which led to a constitutional amendment lowering the minimum age for candidates.

在尼日利亚，年轻人领衔发起了“起步永不早 ” （ Not Too Young to Run）运动，该运动促使尼日利亚修改宪法，降低候选人的最低年龄。


Their success inspired a global campaign to support young people’s right to run for office.

他们的成功启发了一场全球运动，支持年轻人主持政府部门的权利。


In Kenya, the youth-led Jiactivate– the name, which combines Swahili and English, means “Activate Yourself” – has sought to boost youth participation in politics by highlighting the main issues affecting young people.

在肯尼亚，青年领导的Jiactivate — — 这个名字结合了斯瓦西里语和英语，意为“激活你自己 ” — —旨在通过强调影响年轻人的主要问题，提高青年的政治参与。


Jiactivate, in which I am engaged as National Chairperson, aims to serve as a platform that amplifies young Kenyans’ voices, offering them easier ways to take action.

我以全国理事长（National Chairperson）的身份参与了Jiactivate，我们的目标是充当一个放大肯尼亚年轻人的声音的平台，让他们更加方便地采取行动。


To inspire more such initiatives, there must be a deliberate effort to engage with youth in a way that supports real political engagement, not tokenism and empty rhetoric.

要想启发更多的类似项目，必须有意识地采取措施，以支持真正的政治参与的方式与年轻人合作，而不是做表面文章和空喊口号。


To that end, the Organisation of Africa Youth, of which I am coordinator, has not only worked with local youth groups and community networks; it has also taken lessons from a GeoPoll survey of 2,000 urban and rural Kenyan youth.

在这方面，由我担任协调员的非洲青年组织（Organisation of Africa Youth）不但与本地青年团体和社区网络合作；还从一份覆盖2,000名肯尼亚城镇和农村青年的GeoPoll调查中总结经验。


That survey showed that, while 27% of respondents had never engaged politically, 26% had attended an event and 34% had posted on social media.

这份调查表明，27%的受访者从未参与过政治，但26%出席过政治事件，34%发布过社交媒体。


Moreover, 68% of respondents said that they would participate in political action only if they had access to a safe and trusted platform that would protect them from victimization, intimidation, or reprimand.

此外，68%的受访者说，只有在能够获得安全和可信任的平台渠道，能够保证他们不受伤害、恐吓和惩戒的情况下，才会参与政治活动。


One lesson than can be drawn from these data is the potential value of social media, which, despite being constrained in many countries during elections, remains a potent tool to facilitate youth political engagement.

从这些数据中，我们可以总结一个经验，即，尽管社交媒体在许多国家的选举期间饱受遏制，它仍然是便利青年参与政治的有力工具。


For example, by creatively using social media to collect, collate, and amplify young people’s priorities in the Kenyan elections, Jiactivate helped spur their interest in politics.

比如，Jiactivate创造性地利用社交媒体收集、整理和放大年轻人在肯尼亚选举中的重点关注点，提高了他们对政治的兴趣。


Nonetheless, many Kenyans who were popular on social media did not make much of an impact on the election’s outcome.

尽管如此，许多在社交媒体上广受欢迎的肯尼亚人，并没有对选举结果产生多少影响。


Translating social media energy into effective action in the real world remains a daunting challenge.

将社交媒体的能量转化为真实世界中的有效行动仍然是一个艰巨的挑战。


Increasing youth involvement in politics will require sustained commitment and hard work.

提高青年的政治参与度需要持续的努力和艰苦奋斗。


But, far from a deterrent, this should serve as a powerful incentive to get started.

但是，这不应该成为阻力，而应该成为刺激我们开始行动的强大动力。


No one is more affected by past, present, and future policies than young people.

年轻人是受过去、现在和未来政策影响最大的群体。


They must take their seat at the table, not wait until one is offered.

他们必须跻身庙堂，而不能坐等施舍。


The Transformative Power of Africa’s Youth

非洲青年的变革力量


TORONTO – A few years ago, during a conversation with young people from some of Senegal’s poorest communities, a pair of social entrepreneurs told me about projects they were working on to help their peers succeed.

多伦多 — — 几年前，在与塞内加尔某些最贫困社区的年轻人交谈时，两位社会企业家对我讲述了他们正在进行的帮助同龄人取得成功的项目。


One young man said he planned to put more computers into primary schools; another had set up a network to connect rural job seekers in the urban tumult of Dakar, Senegal’s capital.

其中一位年轻人说他计划为小学配备更多电脑；另外一位则在塞内加尔首都达卡尔的城市混乱中建立起了联系农村求职者的网络。


After they finished sharing their plans, I congratulated them, and said that their parents must be very proud.

在听完他们的计划后，我对他们表示祝贺，说他们的父母肯定是非常自豪的。


But instead of accepting the compliment, they demurred.

但他们非但没有接受赞美，反而陷入了沉默。


“My parents are against what I’m doing,” they said, almost in unison, before explaining that young people face family pressure to get a government job or use their English skills to work as a tour guide – not to become a risk-taking entrepreneur.

“我的父母反对我在做的事 ， ” 他们几乎异口同声的说，而后他们对我解释年轻人面临来自家庭的压力希望找到一份政府工作或者利用自己的英语技能成为导游 — — 而不是成为冒险的创业者。


For ambitious young Africans, there are many obstacles to success.

对于雄心勃勃的非洲年轻人来说，需要克服许多障碍才能取得成功。


The journey to a job – whether formal or informal, entrepreneurial or traditional – is often a solitary one.

无论从事正式或非正式、创业或传统工作，求职的旅程往往都充满了孤独。


Many young people lack access to skills training or even a favorable social environment to try something new.

许多年轻人缺少技能训练，甚至得不到有利的社会环境来尝试新鲜事物。


As I was reminded that day in Senegal, helping young people find gainful employment is the most important thing that the international community can do to help Africa develop.

那天在塞内加尔的经历提醒我，帮助年轻人找到有价值的工作是国际社会能够帮助非洲发展的最重要的事务。


Africa is home to the world’s largest population of young people.

非洲拥有全世界数量最大的年轻人口。


In about 25 years, those young people will be part of the biggest workforce in the world, with more than 1.1 billion people of working age.

在未来25年间，这些年轻人将成为世界劳动大军的主力，其中有超过11亿工作年龄人口。


By some forecasts, 11 million people will enter Africa’s labor market each year for the next decade, most of whom will be first-time job seekers.

某些预测认为，未来十年，每年将有一千一百万人进入非洲劳动力市场，其中绝大多数都是首次求职者。


If African countries boost job growth and equip young people with employable skills, this youth bulge can deliver rapid, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth to the continent.

如果非洲国家促进就业增长并用就业技能武装年轻人，这股年轻人大潮可以为非洲大陆带来快速、包容和可持续的经济增长。


In turn, millions would have the opportunity to lift themselves out of poverty.

反过来，成百上千万人或许有机会摆脱贫困。


But Africa cannot achieve this future alone.

但非洲无法凭借一己之力实现这样的未来目标。


At the Mastercard Foundation, we believe that, if Africa is to reach its potential, gaps in two keys areas must be closed.

在万事达基金会，我们认为如果想让非洲充分发挥其潜力，那么有两大关键领域的差距必须得到弥补。


The first area is access to financial products and services.

第一个领域是获取金融产品和服务。


According to the World Bank, some two billion people around the world currently lack such access.

据世界银行统计，世界各地约有20亿人目前无法获得金融产品和服务。


In Sub-Saharan Africa, just 34% of adults have a bank account, making it difficult for people to put money aside for unplanned events, like a bad harvest, or to save for school.

在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，仅有34%的成年人拥有银行户头，这种状况为人们储蓄资金以备不时之需带来了困难，比如遇到农作物歉收或者为了积攒学费的需要。


This must change, with Africans gaining not only better access to banking systems, but also improved financial literacy.

这种状况必须改变，非洲民众不仅应当拥有更好的金融系统，而且应当提高金融素养。


The second key challenge that must be addressed is exclusion from secondary and higher education.

必须解决的第二个关键问题是排斥中等和高等教育。


While progress has been made in some regions, only about one-third of Africa’s young people graduate from high school.

尽管某些地区已经取得了进展，但从高中毕业的年轻人仅占约三分之一左右。


Girls are particularly disadvantaged; according to UNESCO, in Sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated nine million girls under the age of 11 have never been to school, compared to six million boys.

这方面女孩儿尤其弱势；据联合国教科文组织统计，在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，估计有900万11岁以下女童从未接受过学校教育，而从未上过学的男童仅有600万左右。


To address these issues, the Mastercard Foundation has established partnerships with local organizations to design education and financial-literacy programs aimed at helping young people find and keep jobs.

为了解决这些问题，万事达基金会已经与当地组织建立了合作，目的是设计帮助年轻人找到并保住工作岗位的教育和金融素质项目。


By building a better-trained workforce, the Foundation’s programs are helping to empower the next generation of Africa’s community members and leaders, so that they can help their families, communities, and countries achieve a brighter and more prosperous future.

通过建设更加训练有素的劳动队伍，万事达基金会项目正在协助授权下一代非洲的社区成员和领导者，以便他们能够帮助自己的家庭、社区和国家实现更加光明和繁荣的未来。


Already, a new generation of educated and ethical entrepreneurs, like those I met in Senegal, is emerging across Africa, demonstrating a profound commitment to building a stronger Africa.

就像我在塞内加尔所遇到的那样，非洲各地正在涌现新一代受过教育且讲道德的企业家，体现了建设更强大非洲的深远的目标。


For example, when I ask young people participating in our Scholars Program what they plan to do with their new skills, they almost always reply that after getting a job, they plan to help somebody else, by returning to their secondary schools to serve as mentors to younger students.

例如，当我问及参与我们学者计划的年轻人他们学会技能后要做些什么，他们几乎无一例外地回答说在找到新的工作后，他们希望能帮助他人，比如回到自己毕业的中学担任导师辅导年轻的学生。


Some of our program’s graduates have even established community projects in their villages to address HIV/AIDS or to build shelters for orphans and young children.

我们课程的某些毕业生已经在自己的村里设立了应对艾滋病毒/艾滋病的社区计划，还有人修建了孤儿和幼儿收容机构。


Every one of these bright young Africans – examples of what the Mastercard Foundation calls “transformative leadership” in action – has the potential to drive change in their own countries and communities.

每个聪明的非洲年轻人 — — 万事达基金会所谓“变革型领导者”的实例 — — 都有可能在自己的国家和社区推动变革。


Those of us working in the field of international development can help level the playing field even more, by giving young Africans from all backgrounds an opportunity to lead in transformative ways.

我们这些国际发展领域工作者可以协助进一步创造公平环境，赋予所有背景的非洲年轻人机会以变革的方式进行领导。


If we succeed, Africa’s dreamers of today will be the catalysts of positive change tomorrow.

如果我们能够取得成功，非洲今天的梦想家将成为明天积极变革的催化力量。


Africa’s Defining Challenge

非洲决定性的挑战


ADDIS ABABA – Africa has the youngest population in the world, and it’s growing fast.

亚的斯亚贝巴 — — 非洲有全世界最年轻的人口，而且正在快速增长之中。


By 2055, the continent’s youth population (aged 15-24), is expected to be more than double the 2015 total of 226 million.

到2055年，非洲大陆的年轻人口（15到24岁）预计将比2015年的总人数2.26亿翻两番以上。


Yet the continent remains stubbornly inhospitable – politically, economically, and socially – to young people.

但年轻人在非洲大陆却仍然面临着不友好的政治、经济和社会环境。


The success of African governments’ efforts to address this will be the single most important factor determining whether the continent prospers or suffers in the coming decades.

非洲国家政府能否解决这一问题将成为今后几十年非洲大陆繁荣或是萧条的唯一最重要的决定因素。


A business-as-usual approach would risk exposing Africa not only to economic underperformance and a brain drain, but also to criminality, political and social unrest, and even armed conflict.

如果继续采用一切照旧的做法，那么非洲不仅需要面对经济疲软和人才外流，而且可能面对犯罪活动猖獗、政治和社会动荡乃至爆发武装冲突。


But Africa can thrive if its governments act now to tap the energy and dynamism of the burgeoning youth population.

但如果非洲政府立即采取行动激发新一代年轻人的能量和活力，将会给非洲大陆带来繁荣。


What is needed is a comprehensive policy agenda, comprising demographically informed measures that address political, cultural, and economic exclusion in a synchronized manner.

我们需要制定全面的政策议程，充分考虑到相关的人口因素，同步解决政治、文化和经济领域青年人所面临的排斥和困境。


This will be no small feat, not least because of the massive age gap between Africa’s young majority and their leaders: the average age of an African president is 62, while the median age of Africa’s population is 19.5.

实现这一目标绝非轻而易举，尤其考虑到非洲绝大多数年轻人和国家领袖之间巨大的年龄落差：非洲总统的平均年龄为62岁，而非洲年轻人的中位数年龄仅为19.5岁。


That is the world’s largest age gap between governors and the governed, and it raises concerns about how well decision-makers understand the needs and aspirations of young people.

这创造了全世界执政者和被执政者之间最大的年龄差，并引起了人们对决策者能否理解年轻人期望和需求的担心。


It does not help that a tradition of gerontocracy prevails in many countries, meaning that young people’s political participation and influence is restricted on cultural grounds.

许多国家在传统上盛行老人政治也让问题变得更加严重，这意味着年轻人的政治参与和影响力受制于文化因素。


To help overcome this barrier, governments should treat generational inequality with the same sense of urgency as other forms of inequality, accelerating efforts to introduce youth quotas for political parties, parliaments, and other decision-making institutions.

为克服这一障碍，非洲政府应当以解决其他不平等问题同样的紧迫感来解决代际不平等问题，加速推进在政党、议会和其他决策机构实行年轻人配额的工作。


Much work also remains to be done on the economic front.

经济方面也还有许多任务需要完成。


According to the African Development Bank, 12 million young people entered Africa’s labor force in 2015, but only 3.1 million jobs were created.

据非洲开发银行统计，2015年有1，200万年轻人加入非洲劳动者队伍，但却仅仅创造了310万个就业岗位。


That means that millions of young people were left without a stake in the economy.

这意味着数以百万计年轻人的一切经济利益都被剥夺。


In the short and medium term, it will be virtually impossible to create enough jobs to meet the needs of the unemployed and vulnerably employed.

中短期来看，几乎不可能创造就业机会来满足失业和弱势群体的就业需求。


Africa does not have a large labor-intensive manufacturing sector to absorb its mushrooming young population.

非洲并不具有能大量吸纳年轻人口的大规模劳动密集型制造业。


But there are programs that can help.

但有些项目可以起到一定的缓解作用。


For example, YouthConnekt Africa, launched by the United Nations Development Programme and the government of Rwanda, encourages youth-friendly policies, such as access to finance and skills development, that match the needs of the market in particular countries.

比如，由联合国开发计划署和卢旺达政府共同发起的YouthConnekt Africa计划鼓励对年轻人采取友善的政策，比如为他们提供融资和技能开发的机会，以满足所在国家的市场需求。


Still, given the dearth of opportunities at home, many young Africans view migration as a chance for social mobility.

但鉴于国内机会的严重匮乏，许多非洲年轻人依靠移民来争取社会流动性。


Yet, as the CEO of a major company based in Sub-Saharan Africa recently lamented to me, acquiring work visas for Africans is extremely difficult.

但撒哈拉以南非洲一家大企业的首席执行官最近曾对我抱怨，为非洲人争取工作签证是一项极其困难的任务。


In fact, it can be easier to get a work visa for a British citizen than for, say, a Ghanaian with the same skills.

事实上，英国公民或许能比具有同等技能的加纳公民更容易地取得工作签证。


Africa’s vision for economic integration, as set out in the African Union’s Agenda 2063, cannot be realized without labor migration that creates African careers paths for young people.

如果没有为非洲年轻人拓展职业道路的劳工移民政策，就很难实现非洲联盟2063年议程所规划的非洲经济一体化的前景。


It is telling that so many Africans are willing to risk drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, living in appalling detention centers in North Africa, or sleeping in public parks in European cities, rather than remaining in Africa.

如此之多的非洲人宁愿冒险葬身地中海、生活在北非可怕的拘留中心或者露宿欧洲城市公园，也不愿留在非洲就很能说明问题。


Yet, contrary to popular belief, young people are not migrating from Africa exclusively for economic reasons.

但与外界的普遍认识不同，年轻人并非仅仅出于经济原因才选择移民。


Rather, they are motivated by the promise of opportunities for genuine self-improvement and the freedom to decide who to be and how to live.

相反，他们希望寻找真正的自我完善机会以及决定自我身份和生活方式的自由。


That is certainly what led me to leave Africa and head to Europe at a young age.

我年轻时肯定因为这些因素才离开非洲来到欧洲。


In fact, the desire for self-improvement through migration is a key element of the human story – one that no desert, sea, or artificial barrier has been able to quell.

事实上，通过移民实现自我完善的愿望是人类经历的一个关键要素 — — 任凭沙漠、海洋抑或人为的屏障都无法阻隔。


Political and cultural exclusion intensifies it.

政治和文化排斥加剧了这种现象。


Given this, any strategy that does not address the broader environment of marginalization is a bridge to nowhere.

因此，任何无法真正解决边缘化大环境的策略都根本行不通。


So far, Africa seems to be sleepwalking into a future of lost opportunity and, potentially, serious instability.

到目前为止，非洲似乎在梦游中进入到一个丧失机会、而且可能极端不稳定的未来。


And Africa’s international partners have remained preoccupied with containing migration from the continent, rather than addressing its underlying causes.

而且非洲的国际伙伴似乎一直专注于限制来自非洲大陆的移民，而不是关注产生移民问题的根本理由。


But there may be reason for hope.

但我们仍有理由满怀希望。


The fifth European Union-Africa Summit, to be held later this year, will focus squarely on the continent’s young people.

今年晚些时候即将召开的欧盟非洲首脑会议势必将关注的重点放在非洲大陆的年轻人身上。


Likewise, the African Union’s theme for 2017 is “Harnessing the Demographic Dividend Through Investments in Youth.”

同样，非盟2017年的工作主题是“通过投资年轻人挖掘非洲的人口红利 ” 。


One hopes that the growing recognition of the need to create opportunities for young people leads to effective, solidarity-based initiatives that address the barriers to youth empowerment on the continent, instead of erecting barriers to prevent young people from leaving.

我们希望为有必要为年轻人创造机会的越来越清醒的认识能够催生消除非洲大陆年轻人就业障碍的团结一致的高效举措，并且取代那些单纯通过设置障碍来防止年轻人离开的行动。


To paraphrase Martin Luther King, Africa confronts the fierce urgency of now.

借用马丁·路德·金的话讲，非洲现在正面临着万分紧急的时刻。


There is such a thing as being too late.

有的时候太晚就一切都来不及了。


Listening to Africa’s Future Farmers

聆听非洲未来农民


NAIROBI – Africa is in the midst of a youth employment crisis.

内罗毕—非洲陷入了一场青年就业危机。


By 2035, some 350 million new jobs will be needed, and agriculture, the continent’s biggest industry, could provide the bulk of them.

到2035年，非洲需要大约3.5亿个新工作岗位，其最大产业农业能够提供其中的大部分。


But at the moment, young Africans are shunning life on the farm for work in the city.

但目前，非洲年轻人正在离开田间地头，来到城市中工作。


If Africa’s employment gap is to be closed, agribusinesses must find ways to recruit younger hands.

要想填补非洲就业缺口，农业企业必须设法招募更年轻的人手。


This challenge was the focus of my research as part of the Youth Think Tank, a youth-led research initiative in partnership with Restless Development Uganda and the Mastercard Foundation.

这一挑战是我的研究重点。 这项研究是由年轻人领衔、研究计划青年智库（Youth Think Tank）与不懈开发乌干达（Restless Development Uganda）和万事达卡基金会（Mastercard Foundation）合作开展的计划的一部分。


In a recent report, we examined the experiences of young African agriculturalists in seven countries.

在最新报告中，我们考察了非洲多国年轻农业专家的经验。


And what we discovered is that the best way to entice young people back to the farm is by improving access to and engagement with emerging technologies.

我们发现，吸引年轻人重回农场的最佳办法是让他们能够获得和利用新兴技术。


Many of the young people with whom we spoke said that their biggest obstacle to a career in farming is learning the digital and technical skills necessary to succeed in today’s agricultural market.

与我们交流的许多年轻人说，他们务农的最大障碍是学习在当今农业市场中获得成功所必须的数字和科技技能。


With technologies like cloud computing, soil sensors, and weather drones changing how food is produced, packaged, and distributed, digital literacy is as important as arable land and high-quality seeds.

云计算、土地传感器、天气无人机等技术正在改变粮食的生产、包装和分销方式，数字素质（digital literacy）与适耕土地和高质量种子一样重要。


It stands to reason, then, that if more young people could master digital skills, more would find work in the field.

因此，如果更多年轻人能够驾驭数字技能，就自然会有更多人在田间地头找到用武之地。


To understand how important technology is to the young African farmer, consider competition for land.

要理解技术对非洲年轻农民的重要性，可以考察以下土地竞争。


Most farmland is acquired through hereditary or communal distribution systems, and when new plots are allocated, they are typically smaller than those provided to previous generations.

大部分农地通过遗产或公共分配制度获得，而新分配农地往往大小不如此前所分的农地。


To remain profitable, younger growers must produce larger crops from smaller spaces, which requires innovation.

要保持盈利能力，年轻农民必须在更少的土地上种出更多庄稼，而这就需要创新。


Our study found that in many cases, the best solutions for young farmers are already being designed by young people.

我们的研究发现，在许多情况下，对年轻农民来说最好的办法已经在年轻人的开发之中。


For example, in Kenya, one vegetable grower turned her kitchen garden into a vertical farm to increase its output.

比如，在肯尼亚，一位菜农把她的裁菜园改造为垂直农场以增加产出。


Today, she runs her own business designing, fabricating, and installing similar structures for a variety of customers.

如今，她经营着自己的企业，为各种客户设计、制作和安装类似的结构。


Another interviewee created a mobile app to help farmers connect with local seed and fertilizer suppliers.

另一位受访者开发了一个移动应用帮助农民与本地种子和肥料供应商联系。


Unfortunately, these types of youth-driven innovations rarely receive the necessary political or financial backing to make them viable and scalable.

不幸的是，这些年轻人推动的创新很少能够获得必要的政治和财务支持实现生存和扩张。


Despite having great ideas, most young agricultural innovators do not feel supported in their efforts.

许多年轻农业创新者拥有了不起的想法，但难以获得支持。


Young people can help solve Africa’s unemployment challenges, but those closest to the problem have yet to be made part of the solution.

年轻人能够助力解决非洲的失业问题，但最接近问题的人却无法成为解决方案的一部分。


Our research suggests several strategies to achieve this outcome.

我们的研究建议了一些实现这一结果的策略。


For starters, young people need places to engage with like-minded innovators.

首先，年轻人需要与创新同道交流的场所。


Recognizing this, policymakers and the private sector should work together to create incubation centers and ideation hubs to help young people build, discuss, and access farm-related technologies.

认识到这一点，决策者和私人部门应该合作建立孵化中心和创意枢纽（ideation hub）帮助年轻人构建、讨论和接触与农场相关的技术。


Moreover, those who promote new farm technologies should travel to the places where young people gather, to provide hands-on, audience-specific training.

此外，推进新农场技术的人应该亲身体验年轻人聚集的场所，提供亲身体验、为受众量身定制的培训。


If the newest farm gadgets and tools are marketed only on social media, as is often the case, uptake in rural areas will remain weak.

如果最新农场技术和工具旨在社交媒体上兜售（通常正是如此 ） ， 农村地区对这些技术和工具的吸收便无法提高。


Next, young people need access to financial products and services to help them turn their ideas into marketable businesses.

还有，年轻人需要得到金融产品和服务，以助他们将概念转化为可以在市场推广的业务。


And, finally, countries must find ways to involve their youth in early stages of the technology-development pipeline.

最后，各国必须设法在技术发展的早期阶段就让年轻人参与进来。


As the experience of the Kenyan gardener illustrates, young people are often the best judges of what will deliver long-term, practical results.

前述肯尼亚菜农的经验表明，年轻人常常是哪些概念能带来长期切实效果的最佳评判者。


Last year, I had the privilege of presenting these findings at the Global Youth Economic Opportunities Summit in Washington, DC.

去年，我有幸在华盛顿的全球青年经济机会峰会（Global Youth Economic Opportunities Summit）上展示这些发现。


I spoke about the role young people play in Africa’s economy, and the importance of soliciting their views on the future of African agriculture.

我谈到了年轻人在非洲经济中的作用，以及收集他们关于非洲农业的未来的观点的重要性。


It was an important first step in bringing young peoples’ ideas to the table.

这是将年轻人的概念摆上台面的重要的第一步。


But much work remains to be done.

但还有很多工作需要完成。


According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the average age of an African farmer today is about 60, while 60% of the population is under the age of 24.

据联合国粮农组织，非洲农民的平均年龄目前为60岁左右，而60%的非洲人口不到24岁。


To breathe new life into Africa’s farms, the entire industry must innovate.

要向非洲农场注入新鲜血液，整个农业都必须创新。


And, as our research shows, the best way to do that is by working much more closely with those who have the most to gain from progress.

而我们的研究表明，实现创新的最佳办法是与从进步中获益最多的群体进行更加紧密的合作。


After Assimilation

同化以后


Human migration is as old as history. Even migration to distant places and remote cultures is nothing new.

人类的迁徙与我们的历史一样悠久，即便移民到遥远、陌生的国度也毫不新奇。


In the nineteenth century, millions of Europeans sought liberty and prosperity in the Americas, notably in the United States.

19世纪，成百上千万的欧洲人前往美洲，特别是美国寻找自由和繁荣。


What is new today is the scale of migration, often across huge cultural divides - and often without a definite aim.

但今天的移民规模是前所未有的，移民们常常跨越了巨大的文化障碍－而且没有特定的目标。


The African boat people in the Mediterranean are often not even sure whether they want to be in Italy, Germany, or Britain.

地中海的非洲船民常常不清楚自己想去哪里：意大利、德国还是英国。


Even those who are certain, like North Africans in Spain and France, or Turks in Germany, had as their priority escaping the hopelessness of their home countries, not arriving at a particular destination.

即便像西班牙和法国的北非移民或德国的土耳其移民那样清楚自己的目的地，他们的首要目标也是摆脱国内的绝望窘境，而不是易地而居。


This modern form of migration raises massive problems for countries on the receiving end. In Europe, it is probably the most serious social issue today, because no one has a clear idea about how to manage the resulting clash of cultures.

这种现代形式的迁徙给接收国造成了很多麻烦，甚至成了欧洲目前最严重的社会问题，因为没人知道该怎样处理由此产生的文化冲突。


Once upon a time, North America, notably the US, seemed to provide the answer.

曾几何时，北美洲，特别是美国，成了解决问题的样板。


It was that of the "melting pot": different peoples made their own contribution to American culture, but, above all, they made every effort to accept what they found and integrate.

他们提出了"熔炉"概念：不同的人为美国文化做出自己的贡献，但最重要的是，他们尽力接受现实，融入美国社会。


"No," the Russian woman who came to the US in the early twentieth century replied to the grandchild who asked whether her ancestors arrived with the Pilgrims on the Mayflower. "Our ship had a different name, but now we are all Americans."

当小孙孙问起20世纪初移民美国的俄国妇女，他们的祖先是不是和朝圣者一起坐着"五月花"号轮船到达美国时，她回答说 ： " 不是，我们的船有个不一样的名字，但我们现在都是美国人。


More recently, this has changed, giving rise to a process described by Arthur Schlesinger, the historian and former aide to President John F. Kennedy, in his book The Disuniting of America.

可近来情况却有所变化，约翰·F·肯尼迪总统的前助理、历史学家阿瑟·施莱辛格在其著作《美国的分裂》中描述的问题开始初现端倪。


No longer are all US citizens Americans. They have become hyphenated Americans: Italian-Americans, African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and so on.

美国公民不再都是美国人，而是要在前面加上特定的修饰语：意大利裔美国人、非洲裔美国人、西班牙裔美国人等等等等。


The ingredients of the melting pot are separating.

美国熔炉的各个部分开始四分五裂。


Even in Israel, the last true immigration country - at least for Jews - assimilation is no longer so easy.

即使在最后一个真正的移民国家以色列－至少对犹太人来讲确实如此－文化融合也不再是件易事。


Recent newcomers from Russia have their own political party, and old Europeans have become a distinct minority.

不久前到来的俄国新移民成立了自己的政党，而那些欧洲老移民成了当然的少数民族。


Israel and America continue to have mechanisms to integrate new migrants.

以色列和美国仍然具备融合新移民的机制。


Language is an important underlying factor, and in Israel, there is the army, while in America, the values embodied in the Constitution still represent a shared secular faith.

语言是个重要的根本因素，此外以色列还有军队，而美国宪法蕴藏的价值观仍然代表着共同的社会信仰。


But these mechanisms are weakening everywhere, and are virtually non-existent in European countries.

但这样的机制正在全球范围内逐渐削弱，在欧洲国家更是几乎不复存在。


Modern societies are characterized by acute problems of belonging.

归属问题成了现代社会最严重的危机。


They don't offer the implicit, unconscious ties of community that citizens felt in the past. As a result, people have begun to cling to other, more primordial group identities.

人们再也无法像过去那样感觉到含蓄却潜移默化的整体联系，结果导致他们开始固守其它更原始的团体特征。


They resist assimilation, fearing that it will rob them of their identity without offering a new one.

他们拒绝同化，害怕文化的融合不仅带不来新的归属感，还会把原来的身份也无情地夺走。


What then is the alternative to assimilation?

那么除同化外还有什么其它的选择？


The "salad bowl" of so-called multiculturalism is no real alternative, because it does not provide the necessary glue that binds communities together.

所谓的多文化主义"沙拉"并不是真正的选择，因为它提供不了联结团体所必须的粘合剂。


All the ingredients remain separate from the outset.

所有的部分从一开始就四分五裂。


The only viable alternative for which there are examples is probably that of London or New York. The main characteristic of this alternative is the coexistence of a common public sphere shared by all and a considerable degree of cultural separation in the "private" sphere, notably in residential areas.

有成功先例并且唯一可行的备选方案可能就要数伦敦和纽约了，其主要特点是所有人拥有共同的公共领域，而在"私人"领域，特别是居民区中则有很多文化差别。


The public space is multicultural in terms of people's backgrounds, but is governed by agreed values, even a common language, whereas the people's private lives are - to use an ugly word - ghettoized.

公共领域中人们的背景非常多元化，但却奉行共同的价值观甚至讲同样的语言，而人们的私生活却－用个不太好听的字眼来形容－形形色色。


In theory, this is a distinctly second-best solution to the cultural consequences of migration; in practice it is the best answer we have.

从理论上讲，这是解决移民问题的次优方案，但从实际来看，这是我们现有的最佳做法。


But it cannot be had for nothing.

但这也绝不是唾手可得。


Even the necessary minimum of a common language requires a deliberate effort, to say nothing of certain rules of behavior.

因为即便想满足共同语言的最低限度也需要努力，更不用说建立特定的行为规范了。


Living in London, I marvel at the way in which we Londoners have come to terms with Indian family shops and West Indian-run public transport, while not asking many questions about whole districts that are Bangladeshi or Chinese.

作为伦敦居民，伦敦人对印度家庭商店和西印度人管理公共交通的无言认可常常让我感到惊讶，他们从来不问为什么这个地区都是孟加拉人或中国人。


No one has yet found a name for this new version of the "separate but equal" doctrine that some of us fought so hard against in the 1960's: separate private lives in a common public space that is equal for all.

甚至没有人想到过给这种20世纪60年代曾被我们强烈反对的"分离而平等"理念取个名字：在平等的公共领域中存在着迥然不同的个人生活。


This is clearly easier in London and New York than it is in smaller towns or even in the capitals of countries where the world language of English is not spoken.

如果比起小城镇甚至是非英语国家的首都，这样的现象在伦敦和纽约等城市肯定更为普遍。


Berlin's Turkish community and the North African communities around Paris seem increasingly separate, with their own public sphere and often language.

柏林的土耳其人和巴黎周边的北非人似乎越离越远，每个民族都有自己的公共领域，也都有自己的语言。


Where this happens, an explosive condition can arise, a kind of separatism within, not by historically separate groups but by newcomers against natives.

如果出现了这种情况，就会产生蕴含着分离主义的爆炸性局面，这不是古已有之的团体对立，而是新移民与当地人之间的对立。


If we are forced to abandon the hope of assimilation, our efforts should concentrate on creating a public space to which all contribute and that all enjoy.

如果我们被迫放弃同化的希望，那么就必须集中力量创造所有人为之奉献并共同享受的公共环境。


Ideally, this should be an expanding public space, for in the end, the element of unity in a modern society is the guarantee of its citizens' liberty.

理想状况下，这种公共环境应该持续发展，因为归根结底，现代社会的团结因素是公民自由的最终保障。


After Austerity

紧缩之后


NEW YORK – This year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund made clear that Europe and the international community remain rudderless when it comes to economic policy.

纽约—今年的IMF年会清楚地表明，欧洲和国际社会对经济政策还是一头雾水。


Financial leaders, from finance ministers to leaders of private financial institutions, reiterated the current mantra: the crisis countries have to get their houses in order, reduce their deficits, bring down their national debts, undertake structural reforms, and promote growth.

财政领导人们 — — 不管是财政部长还是私人财政机构 — — 不断地念念有词，说危机国必须收拾好自己的房子，削减自己的债务，降低自己的国民债务水平，实施结构性改革，并努力刺激增长。


Confidence, it was repeatedly said, needs to be restored.

需要重塑信心这一点被反复重申。


It is a little precious to hear such pontifications from those who, at the helm of central banks, finance ministries, and private banks, steered the global financial system to the brink of ruin – and created the ongoing mess.

这些把持着央行行长、财政部长、私人银行老板高位的大佬们几乎把全球金融系统拉下悬崖，造成的混乱至今仍在影响着我们，他们能说出这样的话真是有些“难能可贵 ” 。


Worse, seldom is it explained how to square the circle.

更糟糕的是，这不啻缘木求鱼。


How can confidence be restored as the crisis economies plunge into recession?

在危机经济体深陷衰退的时候，如何重塑信心？


How can growth be revived when austerity will almost surely mean a further decrease in aggregate demand, sending output and employment even lower?

在紧缩几乎肯定会进一步拖累总需求、使产出和就业继续恶化的时候，如何重塑增长？


This we should know by now: markets on their own are not stable.

现在我们需要知道的是，市场不能靠自己稳定下来。


Not only do they repeatedly generate destabilizing asset bubbles, but, when demand weakens, forces that exacerbate the downturn come into play.

市场不但一再造成不稳定的资产泡沫，当需求疲软时，市场还会形成加剧下滑趋势的力量。


Unemployment, and fear that it will spread, drives down wages, incomes, and consumption – and thus total demand.

失业以及对失业蔓延的担心压低了工资、收入和消费，从而拖累了总需求。


Decreased rates of household formation – young Americans, for example, are increasingly moving back in with their parents – depress housing prices, leading to still more foreclosures.

家庭形成速度的下降 — — 比如，年青一代美国人越来越多地搬回家去和父母同住 — — 抑制了房价，导致了更多的人被剥夺了按揭权。


States with balanced-budget frameworks are forced to cut spending as tax revenues fall – an automatic destabilizer that Europe seems mindlessly bent on adopting.

实行平衡预算框架的国家被迫削减预算，因为税收收入降低了 — — 这就是欧洲一根筋地力行不懈的“动摇器 ” （ destabilizer ） 。


There are alternative strategies.

我们可以采取替代措施。


Some countries, like Germany, have room for fiscal maneuver. Using it for investment would enhance long-term growth, with positive spillovers to the rest of Europe.

德国等国家拥有财政机动的空间，用之进行投资可以提振长期增长，并对欧洲其他国家形成积极的溢出效应。


A long-recognized principle is that balanced expansion of taxes and spending stimulates the economy; if the program is well designed (taxes at the top, combined with spending on education), the increase in GDP and employment can be significant.

一条早已为人所知的原理是税收和支出的平衡扩张能刺激经济，如果有一个设计良好的计划（对尖端人士征税，并增加教育方面的支出 ） ， GDP和就业将能有巨大改善。


Europe as a whole is not in bad fiscal shape; its debt-to-GDP ratio compares favorably with that of the United States.

整体而言，欧洲的财政状况并不差：其债务-GDP比率比美国还要好。


If each US state were totally responsible for its own budget, including paying all unemployment benefits, America, too, would be in fiscal crisis.

如果美国的每个州都需要对自身预算完全负责（包括支付所有失业保险 ） ， 那么美国也将爆发财政危机。


The lesson is obvious:  the whole is more than the sum of its parts.

美国的经验是显而易见的：部分之和大于整体。


If Europe – particularly the European Central Bank – were to borrow, and re-lend the proceeds, the costs of servicing Europe’s debt would fall, creating room for the kinds of expenditure that would promote growth and employment.

如果欧洲（特别是欧洲央行）可以借款并转手放贷，那么欧洲债务的维持成本就会下降，从而为刺激增长和就业的支出创造空间。


There are already institutions within Europe, such as the European Investment Bank, that could help finance needed investments in the cash-starved economies.

欧洲内部已经有了合适的机构（如欧洲投资银行）可以帮助资金受困国为必须的投资融资。


The EIB should expand its lending.

欧洲投资银行应该加大贷款力度。


There need to be increased funds available to support small and medium-size enterprises – the main source of job creation in all economies – which is especially important, given that credit contraction by banks hits these enterprises especially hard.

中小企业 — — 就业创造的主力军，在任何国家都是如此 — — 需要更多的资金支持，这一点尤其重要，因为银行信用的收缩对中小企业的冲击尤重。


Europe’s single-minded focus on austerity is a result of a misdiagnosis of its problems.

欧洲之所以一根筋地死抓紧缩不放，是因为他们误诊了问题。


Greece overspent, but Spain and Ireland had fiscal surpluses and low debt-to-GDP ratios before the crisis.

希腊确实是指出过度，但西班牙和爱尔兰在危机前财政都有盈余，债务-GDP比率也���低。


Giving lectures about fiscal prudence is beside the point.

大谈审慎财政可谓使错了力。


Taking the lectures seriously –  even adopting tight budget frameworks – can be counterproductive.

把这一点当真，甚至采取严厉的预算框架只能适得其反。


Regardless of whether Europe’s problems are temporary or fundamental – the eurozone, for example, is far from an “optimal” currency area, and tax competition in a free-trade and free-migration area can erode a viable state – austerity will make matters worse.

不论欧洲的问题是暂时性的还是基础性的 — — 比如，欧元区远非“最优”货币区，且自由贸易和人口自由流动地区的税收竞赛会拖垮原本健康的国家 — — 紧缩肯定只能让情况更加糟糕。


The consequences of Europe’s rush to austerity will be long-lasting and possibly severe.

欧洲忙不迭采取紧缩措施的后果将持续很长时间，而且可能会很严重。


If the euro survives, it will come at the price of high unemployment and enormous suffering, especially in the crisis countries.

如果欧元可以幸存下来，那也是以高失业和多重痛苦（特别是对危机国家来说）为代价的。


And the crisis itself almost surely will spread.

而危机本身几乎肯定会蔓延开来。


Firewalls won’t work, if kerosene is simultaneously thrown on the fire, as Europe seems committed to doing: there is no example of a large economy – and Europe is the world’s largest – recovering as a result of austerity.

一边建防火墙一边火上浇油，最后只能是无功而返，这就是欧洲正在做的事情：还没有哪个大型经济体 — — 欧洲是世界最大经济体 — — 曾经通过紧缩带来过复苏。


As a result, society’s most valuable asset, its human capital, is being wasted and even destroyed.

因此，社会最宝贵的资产 — — 人力资本正在被浪费甚至摧毁。


Young people who are long deprived of a decent job – and youth unemployment in some countries is approaching or exceeding 50%, and has been unacceptably high since 2008 – become alienated.

年轻人长期找不到体面的工作 — — 一些国家年轻人失业率正在达到或超过50 % ， 且自2008年以来便一直处于难以接受的高水平 — — 对社会产生了离心感。


When they eventually find work, it will be at a much lower wage.

即使他们最终找到了工作，工资也会低得多。


Normally, youth is a time when skills get built up; now, it is a time when they atrophy.

通常，青年时代是积累技能的时期，而现在的年轻人却在流失技能。


So many economies are vulnerable to natural disasters – earthquakes, floods, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunamis – that adding a man-made disaster is all the more tragic.

如此多的国家在自然灾害面前束手无策 — — 地震、洪水、台风、飓风、海啸，等等 — — 而人造灾难更是雪上加霜。


But that is what Europe is doing.

但这正是欧洲做的事情。


Indeed, its leaders’ willful ignorance of the lessons of the past is criminal.

事实上，欧洲领导人故意忽视历史教训可以说是一种犯罪。


The pain that Europe, especially its poor and young, is suffering is unnecessary.

欧洲 — — 特别是欧洲穷人和年轻人 — — 所正在经历的痛苦是完全可以避免的。


Fortunately, there is an alternative.

幸运的是，我们可以找到替代方案。


But delay in grasping it will be very costly, and Europe is running out of time.

但迟迟不行动将带来高昂的代价，而欧洲正在浪费宝贵的时间。


Immunization Independence

接种独立


WASHINGTON, DC – The first years of this century have been heady ones for global health.

华盛顿—本世纪的头十几年是全球卫生的黄金时代。


International donors – whether national governments, such as the United States, through its PEPFAR program, or new international funding initiatives, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance – have invested billions of dollars in national disease-control programs and health systems, saving millions of lives.

国际出资人 — — 不管是国家政府，如通过PEPFAR项目出资的美国，还是新国际融资计划，如全球遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金以及疫苗联盟（Gavi ） — —在国家疾病控制计划和卫生体系方面投入了数十亿美元，拯救了数百万条生命。


But now some of the countries that have benefited from these programs face a new challenge: sustaining the gains they have made once external support is withdrawn.

但如今一些从这些计划中获益的国家面临一个新挑战：在失去外部支持后继续保持已经取得的成果。


Ultimately, it is on the basis of this transition that donors’ initiatives – and the health aid enterprise as a whole – will be judged.

说到底，出资人的项目 — — 以及作为一个整体的卫生援助事业 — — 都要根据这一转变来予以评判。


Consider Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

以疫苗联盟Gavi为例。


Founded in 2000 by a partnership of major donors, international agencies, and vaccine industry leaders, Gavi’s goal is to help the world’s poorest countries introduce new lifesaving vaccines and strengthen their immunization programs.

Gavi成立于2000年，是一家由主要出资人、国际机构和疫苗行业领导者组成的合作计划，其目标是帮助全世界最贫困国家引入新的救命疫苗、强化它们的接种计划。


When a country’s annual per capita income rises above a certain threshold – currently $1,580 – it becomes ineligible for Gavi support.

年人均收入达到一定标准 — — 目前是1,580美元 — — 的国家就无法获得Gavi支持。


Of course, Gavi doesn’t just cut off funding all at once.

当然，Gavi不会立即切断资金。


Support is phased out over a period of several years.

支持会在几年的时间里逐步结束。


During this transition period, countries rapidly increase their financial contribution to their immunization programs and prepare to assume full responsibility.

在这个过渡期中，国家要大幅增加免疫计划的财政投入，并准备好完全自力更生。


This approach, which enables Gavi to concentrate its resources on countries with the greatest need, has been in place since 2010.

这一方针自2000年以来实施至今，让Gavi能够将资源集中于最需要的国家。


But it is now being put to a stern test: one-third of the 73 countries to which Gavi extends support are either in the midst of the transition process or have just completed it.

但如今，它面临着严峻的考验：在73个Gavi延长支持的国家中，有三分之一要么正处于过渡期，要么刚刚结束过渡期。


The group includes countries as different from one another as Armenia, Bhutan, Honduras, and Vietnam, as well as India and Nigeria, which have the largest birth cohorts.

这些国家情况各异，如亚美尼亚、不丹、洪都拉斯、越南，也包括出生率最高的国家，如印度和尼日利亚。


The Gavi model is now under the microscope.

Gavi模式正在被放在显微镜下观察。


Will countries be able to continue purchasing and delivering the vaccines that were introduced with Gavi support?

这些国家能够继续购买和普及通过Gavi支持引入的疫苗吗？


Equally important, will that commitment hold up over time?

同样重要的是，这一事业能够坚持下去吗？


If government budgets are cut, will immunization be protected, along with other essential health services?

如果政府预算被削减，接种能与其他基本卫生服务一起得到保护吗？


Will countries be able to introduce new lifesaving vaccines as they become available?

当新的救命疫苗面世时，各国能够引入它们吗？


Will they sustain and strengthen disease surveillance, so that outbreaks are detected and addressed quickly?

它们能够保持和强化疾病监控，以使疾病的爆发得以发现并迅速控制吗？


Or will fiscal pressures lead, in some countries, to vaccine shortages, to declines in immunization coverage, or even, in the worst case, to vaccines being dropped altogether from national programs, reversing the hard-won gains of recent years?

或者，财政压力会导致一些国家出现疫苗短缺、接种覆盖率下降，甚至最糟糕的，疫苗从国家接种计划中除名、近几年来好不容易取得的进步毁于一旦吗？


The answers to these questions are important not only for the countries themselves, but also for their neighbors, which could be put at risk by backsliding on immunization.

这些问题的答案不仅对于这些国家本身十分重要，对于它们的邻国也很重要，因为邻国可能因此出现免疫退步的情况。


After all, infectious diseases do not respect national boundaries.

毕竟，传染病是不会尊重国界的。


The recent yellow fever epidemic in Angola, for example, spread to its much poorer neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

比如，最近安哥拉爆发的黄热病疫情就传播到了比它穷得多的邻国民主刚果。


The experiences of countries that have “graduated” from Gavi assistance will also hold important lessons for other international health programs and their beneficiaries.

从Gavi援助中“毕业”的国家的经验也给其他国际卫生项目及其受益国提供了重要的教训。


With so much at stake, international agencies must do whatever they can to prepare countries for “life after Gavi.”

兹事体大，国际机构必须竭尽全力为这些国家准备好“没有Gavi的日子 ” 。


For some of these countries, especially those that have adopted many new vaccines, obtaining adequate and sustainable financing is one of the most daunting challenges posed by the transition.

对其中一些国家，特别是引入了大量新疫苗的国家，获得并保持足够的资金是这一转型最艰巨的挑战。


Although immunization programs require only a relatively small share of health budgets and yield exceptionally high economic returns, securing the needed financing requires careful planning.

尽管免疫计划只需要花费卫生预算的相对较小比例，并且能够带来极高的经济回报，但保证所需资金仍然需要仔细的规划。


A new resource can help countries as they wrestle with this challenge.

新资源有助于各国战胜这一挑战。


Immunization Financing: A Resource Guide for Advocates, Policymakers, and Program Managers provides information on estimating immunization costs, assessing the pros and cons of various sources of financing, shaping purchasing strategies, and navigating policy processes.

《免疫融资：推广者、决策者和项目管理者资源指南 》 （ Immunization Financing: A Resource Guide for Advocates, Policymakers, and Program Managers）提供了关于估算接种成本、评估不同融资资源的利弊、制定采购策略、通过政策流程的信息。


It does not prescribe one way forward, but rather provides relevant information and expert analysis.

它不指定某种做法，而是提供相关信息和专家分析。


Countries can then evaluate options in light of their own circumstances, and advocates can ask the right questions.

各国可以据此根据各自所处环境评估各种选项，推广者也可以提出正确的问题。


With Gavi support, close to 580 million children have been immunized since 2000, and more than eight million future deaths have been averted.

在Gavi的支持下，2000年以来有接近5.8亿儿童获得了接种，超过八百万起未来死亡得到避免。


These are impressive gains that are worth celebrating.

这是值得庆祝的令人瞩目的成就。


But only if countries successfully negotiate the transition from Gavi support can they be confident that future generations will enjoy the same health protections.

但只有各国成功度过取消Gavi支持的过渡期，它们才会有信心让子孙后代获得同样的健康保护。


After Kyoto

京都议定书之后


The Kyoto Protocol treaty has now entered into force for the 126 nations who have joined it so far.

《京都议定书》已对参加该协议的126国生效。


Now is the time to start thinking about how to engage all nations, including large emitters, in conversations about what to do after the treaty’s expiration in 2012.

现在是时候考虑如何使所有的国家，包括那些气体排放大国，参与讨论2012年，即该议定书失效后的应对方法了。


This is exactly what the European Commission did recently by providing its first strategy for a post-Kyoto era, which will be discussed by the European Council next March.

这正是欧盟执委会最近针对后京都时代提出的第一个策略所要做的，这一策略将在三月份交由欧盟理事会讨论。


While the Kyoto Protocol represents only a modest reduction of carbon emissions in industrialized countries – 5.2% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 levels, with varying targets for individual countries – real progress can be made in sustaining development efforts and preserving our planet.

尽管京都议定书已使工业国家二氧化碳排放量略有轻微下降 — — 伴随着各国不一的目标，2008至2012年间二氧化碳排放量比1990年下降了5.2 % — —但是真正的进展却要通过致力于持续发展和保护我们的星球才能实现。


But first, all countries must integrate climate concerns into policy planning, and improve their governance in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and transport.

但是首先，所有国家必须将对气候的关注与政策制定融合一体，加强对能源、基础设施和交通等重要部门的控制。


In other words, we must act in accordance with the recognition that climate change and its effects on people in both rich and poor countries remains a threat to global security.

换言之，在对气候变化有所认识并且意识到它给发达国家和贫困国家人民带来的影响将对全球安全构成威胁这一点后，我们必须采取相应措施。


At the end of the day, the long-term approach is likely to include a rules-based system, an incentives system, and investments in technology change.

最后，这一长期计划应该包括一个标准式系统、一个激励体系以及技术改革所需的投资资金。


Increasingly, adaptation at the national level will be recognized as a major issue that will require appropriate funding.

国家对此计划的应用将日益成为一个需要充足资金的主要项目。


Dealing with the impacts of climate change and with emission reductions should not be mutually exclusive, but complementary.

对气候变化影响和减排量这两个问题的处理并非相互排斥，而是互补的。


Looking ahead to the post-Kyoto world offers us the chance to start a new dialogue and to look at new options on climate change.

对后京都时代的展望将让我们有机会开启一场新对话，并开始寻求解决气候变化问题的新方案。


Nations could set the more ambitious goal of limiting the long-term change in the earth’s temperature, and then assign emissions rights among countries in such a way that will eventually limit temperature increases to an acceptable level.

各国可以将“长期限制地球温度的变化”作为更具雄心的目标，随后在各国之间分配排放权，最终在一个可以接受的水平内限制温度上升。


This would require increasing investments in energy research and development for new and improved technologies – a process that needs to be supported by stronger public-private partnerships.

这将需要在能源研究和开发新型技术方面持续加大投入 — — 需要更为强有力的公私营机构的合作予以支持。


Up to now, with only 15% of the world’s population, rich countries have been responsible for more than 75% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and thus most of the environmental damage.

目前为止，只占世界人口15%的发达国家却排放了占世界总量75%以上的二氧化碳，是大部分环境破坏的罪魁祸首。


However, it is the developing countries – and thus the world’s poor – who are most vulnerable.

然而，发展中国家，也就是全世界的贫困人民 — — 却饱受苛责。


It is unrealistic to ask poor countries, where more than 1.6 billion people do not have access to clean energy and technologies, to bear the costs associated with the much needed technological change.

要那些居住在贫困国家、无法获得清洁能源和技术的16亿人民去承担技术改革所需的费用是不现实的，尽管这样的技术改革非常必需。


Working with partners, the World Bank is supporting financial strategies to assist developing countries in meeting the costs caused by climate change.

世界银行与其合作伙伴一起，正致力于为发展中国家提供金融策略以帮助他们支付气候变化带来的费用。


To date, over $1 billion dollars in Global Environment Facility (GEF) grants, together with about $8 billion in co-financing, have been committed to programs related to climate change.

迄今为止，来自全球环境基金（GEF）的十亿多美元资金，与80亿美元的联合资金一起，已承诺将用于气候变化相关的项目。


While the regulatory mechanisms of both Kyoto and the European Trading Scheme have contributed to the establishment of an emerging market for carbon trading, interested parties are now concerned about the immediate future.

京都议定书和欧洲贸易计划的调节机制促进了日益兴起的碳贸易的确立，使得有兴趣的政党现在开始对不久的将来表示担忧。


Without a regulatory framework beyond 2012, the window of opportunity for initiating project-based transactions will close by 2006/2007.

若2012年后还没有一个管理框架出台，那么创立一个项目式交易的机会之窗将在2006或2007年之前关闭。


Given the long lead time between project preparation and the first benefits of emissions reductions, project developers have only a few years to act before carbon payments cease to make a meaningful contribution to project finance in the current context.

如果项目准备期与减排第一次利润出现之间还有一段很长的前置期，那么，在碳交易结算停止之前，项目发展者只有短短几年的时间在当前情况下为该项目资金创造一个有价值的贡献。


Developing infrastructure projects is a long process that requires 3-7 years from identification, through licensing, financing, and construction, and finally to the first certification of carbon emission reductions.

发展基础设施项目是一个漫长的过程，从确立到获得许可、筹措资金，到最后证明碳化物排放减少需要3到7年的时间。


Therefore, projects need to be operational at the latest by 2007.

因此，该项目必须在2007年之前进入操作阶段。


The World Bank has been instrumental in advancing carbon finance as a viable development tool, and in facilitating private-sector participation in the market.

世界银行已经开始将碳资金当作一项可行的发展工具来加以促进推动，并且鼓励私营机构加入此市场。


The Bank is focused on representing the interests of its borrowing countries, helping them to develop assets for carbon trading according to their own priorities.

世界银行将重点放在维护其债国的利益之上，帮助他们根据各自的优势来发展碳贸易的资产。


But, without a commitment by governments to limit greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2012, the carbon market will remain uncertain, and the private sector – vital to the market’s success – is unlikely to expand its participation in a meaningful and sustained way.

但是，若政府不作出在2012年后降低温室气体排放的承诺，碳市场将仍然难以捉摸，对该市场成功与否至关重要的私营机构，将不愿意持续地、针对性地扩大它们的参与范围。


According to a recent World Bank-supported survey of companies interested in carbon finance, only one in five respondents declared that they were interested in buying post-2012 emissions reductions.

根据最近由世行资助的一项对有意碳资金的公司的调查来看，只有五分之一的公司宣称他们有兴趣购买2012年后的减排量。


Now is the chance to look forward and enlist the global community – with no exclusions, although with differentiated responsibilities – in the pursuit of a more secure world, one that avoids the dire risks of environmental degradation and social conflict implied by inaction.

现在正是考虑将来并争取全球所有国家（尽管各国责任各有不同，但无一例外）支持的大好机会，这样才能寻求一个更为安全的世界，避免环境恶化带来的可怕后果和消极以待将引发的社会争端。


After Paris

巴黎之后


NEW YORK – The attacks in Paris by individuals associated with the Islamic State, coming on the heels of bombings in Beirut and the downing of a Russian airliner over the Sinai Peninsula, reinforce the reality that the terrorist threat has entered a new and even more dangerous phase.

纽约—与伊斯兰国有关的个体对巴黎进行了袭击，此前，贝鲁特发生爆炸事件，更有一家俄罗斯班机在西奈半岛上空坠毁。 这一切强化了恐怖主义威胁正在进入更危险的新阶段的现实。


Just why the Islamic State decided to stage its attacks now is a matter for conjecture; it may well be that it is going global to compensate for its recent loss of territory in Iraq.

伊斯兰国为什么要组织袭击现在仍停留在猜测阶段；很有可能是因为它因为最近在伊拉克丧失领土而追求全球报复。


But whatever the rationale, what is certain is that a clear response is warranted.

但不管原因如何，可以确定的是必然会有明确的反应。


Actually, the challenge posed by the Islamic State calls for several responses, as there is no single policy that promises to be sufficient.

实际上，伊斯兰国所构成的挑战需要多重反应，因为没有哪项单独的政策足以应对。


Multiple efforts are needed in multiple domains.

我们需要多重领域的多重反应。


One is military.

其一是军事。


More intense attacks from the air against Islamic State military assets, oil and gas facilities, and leaders are critical.

加大针对伊斯兰国军事资产、石油和前燃气设施以及领导人的空中打击力度至关重要。


But no amount of air power on its own will ever get the job done.

但不论多大的空中力量也无法单枪匹马解决战斗。


A substantial ground component is needed if territory is to be taken and held.

如果想要占领并守住领土，就必须大量派遣地面部队。


Unfortunately, there is no time to build a partner force on the ground from scratch.

不幸的是，已经没有时间从零开始建设一支地面友军。


This has been tried and failed, and Arab states are unable or unwilling to constitute one.

曾经做过这一尝试，但以失败告终，而阿拉伯国家也无法或不愿组建这样一支地面部队。


The Iraqi army has also come up short.

伊拉克军队让人失望。


Iran-backed militias only make matters worse.

伊朗支持的民兵只能让事情变得更糟。


The best option is to work more closely with Kurdish troops and select Sunni tribes in both Iraq and Syria.

最佳的选择是与库尔德军队更加紧密地合作，并遴选伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派部落。


This means providing intelligence, arms, and being willing to send more soldiers – more than the 3,500 Americans already there, and possibly on the order of 10,000 – to train, advise, and help direct a military response.

这意味着提供情报、武装并准备派遣更多士兵 — — 目前只有3,500美军，这是不够的，也许需要上万人的数量级 — — 训练、充当顾��和帮助指导军事行动。


Such an effort must be collective.

这一方针必须以集体行动的方式落实。


It can be informal – a “coalition of the willing” that would include the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Arab states, and even Russia under the right circumstances – or carried out under NATO or United Nations auspices.

可以是非正式的形式 — — 一个包括美国、法国、英国、阿拉伯国家，甚至在正确的前提下包括俄罗斯在内的“志愿联盟 ” — —也可以在北约或联合国的支持下进行。


The packaging matters less than the results.

如何组织不重要，结果更重要。


Symbolic declarations of war, though, ought to be considered with caution, lest the Islamic State appear to be winning every day it does not lose.

但象征性地宣战要慎之又慎，以免造成伊斯兰国不输便是赢的表象。


A diplomatic component is no less essential to any response.

外交反应的重要性不下于任何其他反应。


Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a recruiting tool for the Islamic State and must go.

叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德是伊斯兰国招募人手的工具，他必须下台。


But any successor government must be able to maintain order and not permit the Islamic State to exploit a power vacuum, as it has done in Libya.

但继任政府必须能够维持秩序，不允许伊斯兰国利用权力真空，重蹈利比亚的覆辙。


Moreover, orderly political change can be brought about only with Russian and Iranian support.

此外，有序的政治变革必须在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下进行。


One near-term option worth exploring is a coalition government still headed by a representative of the Alawite minority, a concession that could well be the price of moving Assad out of power.

一个值得探索的短期选择方案是成立一个仍以阿拉维少数派代表为首的联合政府，这是让巴沙尔远离权力的必要的让步。


In principle, and over time, a more representative national government could come about, although talk of holding elections in 18 months is fanciful under any scenario.

理论上，借以时日，可能产生一个更具代表性的国家政府，尽管不论在何种情形下，要在18个月内举行选举都只是幻想。


But reaching a compromise along these lines could well be impossible.

但在这些方面形成妥协也许非常困难。


This is why increased military effort is needed to bring about larger and more secure enclaves that could better protect civilians and take the fight to the Islamic State.

因此，必须加码军事手段建立更大更多的飞地以更好地保护平民和打击伊斯兰国。


Syria is not a normal country in any sense, and it will not be for a long time, if ever.

不论从何种角度看，叙利亚都不再是正常国家，并且在相当长的一段时间（如果不是永远的话）都无法成为正常国家。


A Syria of enclaves or cantons is a more realistic model for the foreseeable future.

在可预见的未来，一个由飞地和根据地组成的叙利亚才是更加现实的模式。


Other indispensable elements of any effective strategy include expanded help for or pressure on Turkey to do much more to stem the flow of recruits to the Islamic State.

有效战略的其他不可或缺要素包括给予土耳其更大的帮助或压力，令其花更大的力气阻止应募者流入伊斯兰国。


And Turkey, along with Jordan and Lebanon, need more financial assistance as they shoulder the bulk of the refugee burden.

土耳其以及约旦和黎巴嫩需要更多的金融支持，因为它们承担了大部分难民负担。


Arab and Muslim leaders can do their part by speaking out to challenge the Islamic State’s vision and delegitimize its behavior.

阿拉伯和穆斯林领导人也可以做出贡献，挑战伊斯兰国的愿景、破坏伊斯兰国行为的合法性。


There is also a domestic dimension to policy.

国内政策也大有可为。


Homeland security and law enforcement – increasing protection both at borders and within them – will have to adjust to the increased threat.

祖国安全和执法情况 — — 加强边界和内部保护 — — 必须根据日益严重的威胁作出调整。


Retail terrorists – individuals or small groups carrying out armed attacks against soft targets in open societies – are extremely difficult to deal with.

零散恐怖分子 — — 针对开放社会的软目标实施武装袭击的个体或小集团 — — 最难对付。


The threat and the reality of attacks will require greater social resilience and quite possibly a rebalancing of individual privacy and collective security.

袭击的威胁和现实需要更大的社会恢复力，也许还需要平衡个人隐私和集体安全之间的关系。


What is also required is a dose of realism.

除此之外还需要现实主义。


The struggle against the Islamic State is not a conventional war.

与伊斯兰国的斗争不是一场传统战争。


We cannot eradicate or destroy it any time soon, as it is as much a network and an idea as it is an organization and a de facto state that controls territory and resources.

我们无法短时间内根除或消灭伊斯兰国，因为它有一个网络、一套思想，也因为它是一个控制着领土和资源的组织、一个事实上的国家。


Indeed, terrorism is and will continue to be one of the scourges of this era.

诚然，恐怖主义是并将继续是现时代一场灾难。


The good news, though, is that the threat posed by the Islamic State to the Middle East and the rest of the world can be dramatically reduced through sustained, concerted action.

但好消息是，伊斯兰国给中东和世界其他地区所造成的威胁可以通过持续的集体行动大幅削弱。


The main lesson of the attack on Paris is that we must be prepared to act over time and place alike.

巴黎袭击的主要教训是我们必须随时随地做好行动准备。


After Pax Americana?

美式和平之后


NEW YORK – It has become popular to suggest that when the dust settles from the global financial crisis, it may become clear that the United States-led post-war world has come to an end.

纽约 - - 一段时间以来，有人热衷于说当全球金融危机尘埃落定之时，美国主导的战后世界将会结束。


If so, the global system that has secured peace, security, openness, and economic growth over the past six decades could be in grave danger.

如果这样，在过去六十年中确保了和平、安全、开放以及经济增长的全球体制就会处于严重危险之中。


Inspired by American leadership since World War II’s end, Europe, then Japan, then much of Asia and the world rose to new levels of prosperity; the world economy globalized upon the foundation of international institutions, norms, and standards; and foreign students educated in American universities returned home with new ideas about free markets, entrepreneurship, and democracy.

欧洲、日本和亚洲和世界其他大部分地区受到美国战后领导地位的鼓舞相继实现了繁荣。 世界经济在国际体制、规则以及标准的基础上实现了全球化。


The US military’s protective umbrella gave large swaths of the world a vacation from war, making it easier for them to focus on economic growth and regional integration.

在美国大学接受教育的外国学生把有关自由市场、创业精神以及民主的新观点带回国内。 美国军队的保护伞让世界上的大部分地区免于战火，使得这些地区更为容易地专心致志地从事经济增长和地区联合。


America not only took the lead role in building the institutions of a globalizing world – the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, NATO– it also became the model that many other countries looked to for inspiration.

美国不仅在建立联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织以及北约等全球化世界的机制中发挥了主导作用，而且，其他许多国家也寻求美国模式的灵感。


After eight years of compromised American leadership, a botched war of choice in Iraq, failure to take the lead in global efforts to address climate change, Abu Ghraib, Guantánamo Bay, running up a $10 trillion debt, and igniting a global financial crisis – America’s once-glittering model has lost a good deal of its luster and America’s leadership has been questioned by many.

它限于伊拉克战争泥潭，未能领导世界处理气候变化问题，在阿布格莱布虐囚，在关塔纳摩基地关押人犯，赤字高达十万亿美元并且引发了全球金融危机。 美国一度耀眼的模式已经风光不再，而且许多人质疑美国的领导地位。


The point was driven home at the 7th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Beijing this autumn, where European and Asian leaders began exploring ideas for a new global financial structure.

今年秋天在北京举行的第七次亚欧首脑会议证明了这一点。 在这次会议上，亚欧各国领导人开始研究建立新的全球金融结构。


For much of the past 60 years, it would have been impossible to hold such a fundamental dialogue without US participation. Today, it is almost becoming a new global norm that neither the international committee nor the US is prepared for.

在过去六十年的大部分时间里，人们不可能在没有美国参加的情况下举行这样的重大对话，这一全球性的情况国际社会和美国都没有做好准备。


Despite talk about American decline, the world is not prepared for a post-American era.

尽管人们谈论美国衰落，但是世界对后美国时代还是没有做好准备。


As irksome as some of America’s actions have been, particularly over the past eight years, America remains the world’s most critical champion of the progressive values that have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty and political repression.

尽管美国的某些行为令人厌烦，但是在促进将数以亿计的人口从极端贫困和政治迫害中解脱出来的进步价值观上，美国还是一马当先。


If the US were to play a relatively smaller role in world affairs, and no other system was created to pick up the slack, these values could be at risk.

如果美国在世界事务上发挥相对较小的作用而且没有建立其他制度来弥补空缺，那么，这些价值观就会受到危险。


Although many states now hide behind an alleged universal principle of inviolable state sovereignty, for example, would the international community really want to go back to the old model where states did whatever they wanted to their citizens within the confines of their own borders?

尽管有些国家躲藏在所谓的主权不可侵犯的普遍原则上，国际社会是否果真愿意回到国家可以对其人民为所欲为的老模式之中呢？


Do countries around the world believe that they will be better off if the global trade system breaks down or international shipping lanes become less secure?

世界各国是否相信，如果全球贸易体系崩溃或者国际航运线路不再安全它们的日子会更好呢？


Are countries like China willing to step up and pay their fair share of dues to keep the UN running (China currently pays 2.1% of UN dues, compared to more than 25% for the US), or to capitalize revised international financial institutions or the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in a meaningful way?

像中国这样的国家是否愿意增加联合国会员经费以保持联合国运转(中国目前的经费是2.1 % ， 美国是25 % ) ？ 还是愿意为改制后的国际金融机构或全球基金注资来确实消除艾滋病、肺结核以及霍乱呢？


Unless other countries become more willing to step forward for the common good, a post-American world could quickly become a far more frightening environment than what it would replace.

除非其他国家更加愿意为人类共同事业挺身而出，否则，后美国的世界将会马上要比原先的更为令人害怕。


To make its case for a continued global leadership role, America must, however, step up to the plate.  While the go-it-alone impulse of the Bush administration has been discredited by its consequences, the inverse lessons regarding how important collaborative action is in today’s interconnected world are still being learned.

美国为了继续领导世界就必须承担责任。 布什政府的单边主义冲动由于其后果而受到非议，但是反过来，如今相互依存的世界中相互合作的重要性人们还是在摸索。


Even at the apex of American power, America’s greatness was always based on inspiring others, and the opportunities for building market share in that particular category remain unlimited.

即使在美国鼎盛时期，其伟大之处也是鼓舞激励他人，而在这一特殊领域中建立市场份额的机会还是不可限量。


It is impossible to overestimate how significant a step Barack Obama’s election is in this direction, but America’s actions over the coming years will be the ultimate determinant of whether the power of America’s model can be restored.

奥巴马当选美国总统在这一方向迈出了重大一步，对此人们不可低估。 但是，美国在未来几年中采取的行动将会最终决定美国模式的力量是否可以恢复。


America can and should, for example, become the global leader combating climate change through major investments in alternative energy, conservation, and energy efficiency, and by taking strong actions at home to reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions.  It should transform its immigration policy to recruit the best and brightest people from around the world to move to the US and become citizens, and remain the world’s leading champion of open markets, especially during the current financial crisis.

美国可以而且应该领导世界，通过大量投资于替换能源、节能、能源效率以及采取大力行动减少温室气体排放来处理解决气候变化问题。 它应该改变移民政策，在全球招募俊才前来美国并成为美国公民，以及继续推行公开市场，特别是当前金融危机之下。


Closing the prison at Guantánamo and reaffirming America’s commitment to international law and human rights will also be an important step in this direction.

关闭关塔纳摩监狱并且重申美国对国际法和人权的承诺也将是这一方向的重要一步。


The world wants to believe in an America that lives up to its own best values.

世界想要相信遵守自身最佳价值观的美国。


The prospect of a truly global community of nations working together to achieve the greater good for all is indeed exciting.

国际社会各国共同努力实现共同事业这一前景的确令人激动。


But, although America has been far from perfect over the last six decades, the end of the pax Americana has the potential to create a dangerous void in international affairs.

但是，尽管美国在过去六十年中并非完美无缺，美式和平的终结有可能在国际事务中造成危险的真空。


If the world is going to shift in the direction of a new and more globally democratic system, other nations will need to meaningfully step forward to assume new responsibilities.

如果世界转向一个新的、更为全球性民主的体制，那么，其他国家就需要有效地采取行动承担新的责任。


It is in America’s and the world’s interest that they do so.  The evidence of this will be seen not only in global institutions but also in places like Darfur, Zimbabwe, and Burma.

它们这样做符合美国和世界的利益。 不仅在全球性机构、而且在达尔富尔、津巴布韦以及缅甸等地方都可以得到验证。


Until this happens, let us all hope that America can get back on track as the global champion of collaborative action to address the world’s greatest challenges and work with as many other countries  as possible to move collectively in the right direction.

在这以前，还是让我们希望美国再次成为共同处理解决世界最严重挑战的带头人，并且于尽量多的国家合作朝向正确的方向前进。


After the Guns of August

八月冲突之后


The Middle East is a place where the dust hardly ever settles.

中东战争的尘埃从未落定。


When it occasionally does, even for a short interval – as UN Resolution 1701 for cessation of hostilities in Lebanon seems to be holding – it is time to take stock of events in the hopes that a responsible debate may influence those in power.

每当偶尔闪现出瞬间的希望¾就像平息黎巴嫩冲突的联合国1701号决议让人们看到了曙光¾人们真的应该抓住机会认真思考整个事件的前前后后，期望一场负责任的辩论能够对当权者造成影响。


Let’s start with the United States.

就从美国说起吧。


President George W. Bush has been short on neither initiatives nor catchy slogans and acronyms.

乔治·W·布什总统既拿不出可行的方案，也提不出令人心动的口号和名词。


Recent years are littered with them: “Global War on Terror” (GWOT), “Road Map,” “Middle East Partnership Initiative “ (MEPI), “Broader Middle East and North Africa” (BMENA) – originally “Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) – Democracy Assisted Dialogue (DAD), and so on.

近年来充斥着他平庸的创意 ： “ 对恐怖主义的全球战争 ” （ GWOT ） 、 “路线图 ” 、 “中东伙伴关系计划 ” （ MEPI ） 、 “泛中东和北非倡议 ” （ BMENA）¾也就是原来的“泛中东倡议 ” （ GMEI）¾“民主支持的对话 ” （ DAD）等等诸如此类。


His latest reverie, envisioned in the thick of the recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, was the New Middle East (NME), with US clients Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia serving as the pillars of regional order.

他在以色列和真主党交战正酣之际最新提出的幻想被命名为“新中东计划 ” （ NME ） ， 在这项计划里，美国的委托人以色列、埃及、约旦和沙特阿拉伯被当成了地区秩序的支撑力量。


But like all his previous initiatives since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington almost five years ago now, the NME ran into trouble from the outset.

但正如他在五年前纽约和华盛顿遭袭后提出的所有计划一样 ， “ 新中东计划”从一开始就麻烦重重。


Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced its birth while rejecting an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon.

国务卿康多莉扎·赖斯在宣布该计划诞生的同时，否决了黎巴嫩立即停火的提案。


Her poor timing made the initiative appear heartless, as thousands of civilians were being uprooted, killed, or maimed by Israel’s efficient but ruthless artillery and air force.

她不恰当的时间选择让新计划毫无诚意可言。 在这项计划诞生的同时，成千上万的平民百姓在以色列高效但却无情的炮火和空袭中流离失所、无辜丧命或者身负重伤。


This so embarrassed the three Arab NME partners that each raced to distance itself from the US-sponsored initiative.

“新中东计划”令三位阿拉伯伙伴深感不安，它们都迫不及待地同这项由美国提出的计划划清界限。


Saudi Arabia, which had remained silent for nearly two weeks, did so with a $500 million contribution to rebuilding devastated areas of Lebanon and another billion to support Lebanon’s threatened currency.

沙特阿拉伯在沉默了近两个星期后，终于宣布捐款5亿美元重建被战火摧毁的黎巴嫩区域，不仅如此，沙特还承诺拨出10亿美元支持岌岌可危的黎巴嫩货币。


Egypt’s heir apparent Gamal Mubarak followed suit in the fourth week of the fighting by heading a 70-member delegation on a solidarity visit to Beirut.

黎以交战进入第四个星期时，埃及政权当然的继承人贾迈勒·穆巴拉克(Gamal Mubarak)也站到了黎巴嫩一边，率领70人的代表团访问贝鲁特。


But, rather than earning him the respect of an outraged Egyptian public, revelations in the opposition press that his plane had to obtain a safe passage and authority to land from the Israelis garnered only howls of derision.

但那次访问不但没能赢得愤怒的埃及公众对他的尊重，反而使他成为了笑柄，因为反对派媒体上披露他的专机被迫为安全通行和降落请求以色列人的批准。


As for America, anything it touches in the Middle East has become radioactive, even for longstanding clients and friends.

至于美国，它在中东的举手投足无一例外地臭名昭著，即便是长期委托人和朋友也避之唯恐不及。


In the course of maneuvering to delay the UN ceasefire, Bush and Rice continually reiterated the need for a Security Council resolution that deals forcefully with “the roots of the problem.”

在为推迟联合国停火协议四处游说的同时，布什和赖斯翻来覆去地强调必须通过一项安理会决议，用武力来应对“问题的根源 ” 。


Of course, for them and for Israel, this was Hezbollah and the need to eradicate or at a minimum disarm it and force its fighters to a safe distance from settlements and towns in northern Israel.

勿庸置疑，对美国和以色列来讲，这个根源就是黎巴嫩真主党，必须将其彻底消灭，至少也要解除武装，迫使真主党的战士远离以色列北部的城镇和犹太定居点。


While this is a reasonable demand, the rest of the Middle East – and, indeed, much of the world, including Europe – regard the root cause of the conflict as Israeli intransigence and arrogance, together with America’s blind support for it.

尽管这个要求当属合理，但其他中东国家¾实际上甚至包括欧洲在内的世界上大部分国家¾都把以色列的强硬傲慢，以及美国对它的盲目支持看做是冲突的根源所在。


Both America and Israel have cited foot-dragging in implementing UN Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming all non-state actors in Lebanon and the deployment of government forces all the way to the southern border.

美国和以色列都称联合国第1559号决议执行不力，决议内容要求解散黎巴嫩所有非政府武装，并把政府部队一直部署到黎南部边境。


But for years the US and Israel have not uttered a word about the dozens of UN resolutions, going back as far as Resolution 49 on partition in 1947, which called for the establishment of distinct Arab and Jewish states on roughly half of Mandated Palestine.

但多年以来，美国和以色列却从未对多达几十项其他联合国决议发表过任何评论，这种情况最早可以追溯到1947年的第49号决议，该决议要求把巴勒斯坦的托管土地分成两半，分别建立起阿拉伯以及犹太国家。


This and numerous other resolutions seeking redress for injustices toward Palestinians have been ignored by the US.

试图改变巴勒斯坦人所受不公正待遇的上述以及其他决议美国全都置之不理。


Thus, for 300 million Arabs and more than one billion Muslims the “root cause” of the Middle East conflict is not Hezbollah.

正因为如此，对3亿阿拉伯人和10多亿穆斯林来说，黎巴嫩真主党并不是中东战争的“最终根源 ” 。


As its leader, Hassan Nasrallah aptly put it, “We are just a reaction to chronic injustice.”

真主党领袖哈桑·纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)形容得十分贴切 ， “ 真主党只不过是长期不公所缔造的产物。 ”


It may well be that there is more than one root cause – every party to the conflict has a favorite one.

冲突的根本原因很可能不只一种¾各方对此都有着不同的说辞。


There is no point in belaboring whose pain is greater or whose root cause is deeper.

分析哪一方的痛苦更剧烈或根源更深刻没有任何意义。


In fact, arguing over grievances merely drives the sides further apart.

事实上，对不满情绪无休止的争论只会使各方离得更远。


The long overdue UN Resolution 1701 may, with its adoption, indicate that all parties are fatigued, or could no longer withstand international pressure.

迟来太久的联合国第1701号决议的生效可能表明各方都已经感到疲惫，抑或是再也忍受不了国际上的压力。


This is good news for all concerned and provides an opportunity to tackle each party’s “root cause.”

这对各方来讲都是好消息，给它们带来了解决各自根源问题的一次机遇。


Seizing the opportunity requires that humility rather than moral supremacy prevails.

抓住这次机遇需要虚怀若谷，而不是盲目自大。


Empathy, not ethnocentrism, should be the order of the day now that the guns are falling silent and we have rediscovered the limits of military force.

在炮火逐渐平息、武力界限再度浮现的时刻，需要设身处地地为对方考虑，而不是盲目愚蠢的自我中心。


But if we have learned anything at all from the tragic assassinations of the region’s greatest peacemakers, Anwar Sadat and Yitzhak Rabin, it is that the guns do not remain silent for long.

但如果中东地区最伟大的和平使者安瓦尔·萨达特和伊扎克·拉宾被刺的悲剧曾经留给过我们什么教训，那就是战火熄灭的时间不会太长。


During any lull, a fanatic from either side could jump to center stage and, through an act of utter madness, kick up the settling dust and dash the hopes of the many on both sides who still long for a lasting peace.

在短暂的宁静时刻，来自任何一方的狂热分子随时有可能跳到前台，用绝对的疯狂行为重新点燃战争的怒火，毁灭双方爱好和平的人们对永久和平的期望。


After the Millennium Development Goals

千年发展目标之后


CAMBRIDGE – In 2000, 189 countries collectively adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration, which evolved into a set of concrete targets called the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

美国剑桥—2000年，189个国家一致接受了联合国千年宣言，并将其纳入了被称为千年发展目标（MDG）的一系列具体计划中。


These ambitious targets – ranging from halving extreme poverty and reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters to achieving universal primary schooling and halting (and beginning to reverse) the spread of HIV/AIDS – are supposed to be met by the end of 2015.

这些雄心勃勃的计划 — — 从将贫困降低一半和让产妇死亡率减少四分之三到让所有孩子都接受小学教育和让艾滋病（毒）停止传播（甚至减少 ） — —应该在2015年底之前完成。


As the deadline approaches, development experts are debating a new question: What comes next?

随着截止期的临近，发展专家们开始讨论新的问题：接下去怎么办？


It is virtually certain that many of the MDGs will not have been met by the end of 2015, but there have been striking successes in some areas.

几乎可以肯定的是，很多MDG在2015年底之前是实现不了的，但在不少领域还是取得了极大的成功。


For example, the goal of halving extreme poverty (measured by the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day) will likely be achieved ahead of time, largely thanks to China’s phenomenal growth.

比如，将极端贫困减少一半（以每天生活费不到1.25美元的人群数量为衡量标准）的目标就有可能提前完成，其中中国的显著增长功不可没。


At the same time, there is little evidence to suggest that those successes were the result of the MDGs themselves.

与此同时，没有证据显示这些成功是MDG本身的结果。


China implemented the policies that engineered history’s greatest poverty eradication program prior to, and independently from, the Millennium Declaration and the MDGs.

中国的史上最伟大减贫计划因国内政策而起，发生于千年宣言和MDG之前，也独立于后两者。


Clearly, however, the MDGs were a public-relations triumph, which is not to belittle their contribution.

不过，毫无疑问，MDG称得上公关胜利，这么说并不是要贬低它们的作用。


Like all worthwhile PR efforts, the MDGs served to raise awareness, galvanize attention, and mobilize action – all for a good cause.

与所有有价值的公关活动一样，MDG有助于提高认识、吸引注意力和动员行动，均是积极影响。


They amplified the global conversation about development and defined its terms.

它们扩大了关于发展问题的全球对话，并决定了对话的主题。


And there is evidence that they got advanced countries to pay more attention to poor nations.

有证据表明，它们还使发达国家更加关注穷国。


Indeed, the MDGs possibly had their clearest impact on aid flows from rich to poor countries.

事实上，MDG最显而易见的影响可能就在于富国向穷国的援助流。


A study by Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner for the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC, suggests that the MDGs not only boosted aid flows, but also redirected them toward smaller, poorer countries, and toward targeted areas like education and public health.

华盛顿全球发展中心的查尔斯·肯尼（Charles Kenny）和安迪·萨姆纳（Andy Sumner）的研究表明，MDG不但刺激了援助流，还将援助流定向至更小、更穷的国家以及教育和公共卫生等更为具体的领域。


However, aid was not directly linked to performance and results, and it is much more difficult to know whether it had the desired impact overall.

不过，援助与表现和效果并不直接相关，了解援助是否达到了理想效果要困难得多。


The MDGs encompass eight goals, 21 targets, and 60 indicators.

MDG包括八个大目标（goal ） ， 21个小目标（target）和60项指标。


Much criticism has focused on the use of these numerical targets and indicators, which, skeptics argue, are misspecified, mismeasured, and divert attention from equally important areas.

许多批评的矛头指向这些数量化的小目标和指标。 质疑者认为，它们的方向和衡量手段都是错误的，导致了注意力从其他同等重要领域移开。


But these complaints miss the point.

但这些指摘并没有抓住重点。


Any effort that is concrete and implementable needs to monitor the results, and setting clear numerical targets is the best way to do so.

任何具体且可实施的目标都需要检测结果，而设置清晰的数量目标是检测结果的最佳方法。


Still, a central paradox plagues the MDGs.

但仍有一个核心悖论困扰着MDG。


The Millennium Declaration was meant to be a compact between the world’s rich and poor countries.

千年宣言不啻发达国家和贫穷国家之间的契约。


Poor countries promised to refocus their development efforts while rich countries pledged to support them with finance, technology, and access to their markets.

贫穷国家承诺重新调整发展努力，而发达国家承诺向它们提供金融、技术和市场渠道支持。


But, oddly, of the eight goals, only the last one deals with “global partnership,” or what rich countries can and should do.

但是，奇怪的是，在八个大目标中，只有最后一个是关于“全球合作 ” ， 即发达国家可以和应该怎么做的。


Even here, the MDGs contain no numerical target for financial aid or any other aspect of rich countries’ assistance, in contrast to the highly specific poverty-related targets set for developing countries.

即使在这里，MDG仍没有为金融援助或其他发达国家援助设定数量化目标，这与针对发展中国家的极其具体的贫困相关目标形成了鲜明对比。


It is perhaps telling that the “progress charts” prepared by the United Nations Development Program, the agency charged with reporting on progress toward achieving the MDGs, track only Internet usage under that goal.

具有说明力的是，联合国发展计划署 — — 负责报告MDG进展情况的机构 — — 所准备的“进展图”所追踪的唯一一个该大目标相关数字是互联网的使用情况。


Why we need a global effort to convince developing countries to do what is good for them is not clear.

为什么我们需要全球措施来使发展中国家相信怎样做才是最好的？


Poverty reduction and human development should be the first order of business for governments in these countries, with or without the MDGs.

这个问题还没有明确答案。 减贫和人类发展应该是这些国家政府的首要职责，不管有没有MDG都是如此。


It is true, of course, that these governments often pursue different goals, for political, military, and other reasons.

当然，实事求是地说，出于政治、军事和其他原因，这些国家的政府通常会追求不同的大目标。


But it is wishful thinking to believe that they can be persuaded to act otherwise by international declarations that lack enforcement mechanisms.

但认为可以通过缺少强制机制的国际宣言说服它们改变做法纯属一厢情愿。


If we have learned one thing in the development business, it is that real reform cannot be bought with donors’ money, let alone with vague promises of money.

如果说发展事务对我们有什么教育意义的话，那就是真正的改革不可能是赞助者的金钱带来的，更不用说只是虚无的承诺资金支持了。


Equally problematic, the MDGs implicitly assume that we know how to achieve development targets, and that only resources and political will are missing.

同样有问题的是，MDG隐含地假设我们知道如何达到发展小目标，所缺乏的只是资源和政治意愿。


But it is doubtful that even well-intentioned policymakers have a good handle on, say, how to raise secondary-school completion rates sustainably or reduce maternal mortality.

但即使是有心的决策者，他是否能处理好（比如）持续提高中学完学率和降低产妇死亡率等问题仍然值得怀疑。


Many development economists would argue that significant improvements in governance and political institutions are required before such goals can be achieved.

许多发展经济学家会说，在大目标可以实现之前，必须发生治理和政治制度的重大进步。


The most that rich countries can do is to provide an enabling environment for the benefit of developing countries that are willing and able to take advantage of it.

发达国家最能给出的援助是提供促进性的环境，让愿意且有能力利用该环境的发展中国家收益。


These considerations suggest an obvious direction for the next iteration of the MDGs.

这些考虑清晰地给出了下一代MDG的方向。


First, a new global compact should focus more directly on rich countries’ responsibilities.

首先，新的全球契约应该更直接地专注于发达国家的责任。


Second, it should emphasize policies beyond aid and trade that have an equal, if not greater, impact on poor countries’ development prospects.

第二，它应该强调援助和贸易之外的、对贫穷国家的发展前景具有同样（如果不是更大）推动的政策。


A short list of such policies would include: carbon taxes and other measures to ameliorate climate change; more work visas to allow larger temporary migration flows from poor countries; strict controls on arms sales to developing nations; reduced support for repressive regimes; and improved sharing of financial information to reduce money laundering and tax avoidance.

这些政策应该包括：碳税和其他改善气候变化的措施、增加贫穷国家临时性人口迁徙的工作签证、严格控制对发展中国家的军售、减少对压迫性政权的支持，以及改善金融信息的共享状况以打击洗钱和逃税。


Notice that most of these measures are actually aimed at reducing damage – for example, climate change, military conflict, and financial crime – that otherwise results from rich countries’ conduct.

注意，这些措施的大部分实际上都是为了减少发达国家援助行为的伤害 — — 比如气候变化、军事冲突和金融犯罪。


“Do no harm” is as good a principle here as it is in medicine.

“不产生伤害”这一医学格言在这里同样是一条很好的原则。


This kind of reorientation will not be easy.

制定这样的新目标绝非易事。


Advanced countries are certain to resist any new commitments.

发达国家必然会抵制新承诺。


But most of these measures do not cost money, and, as the MDGs have shown, setting targets can be used to mobilize action from rich-country governments.

但这些措施大多并不需要金钱，MDG也表明，设定小目标可以用于动员发达国家政府的行动。


If the international community is going to invest in a bold new public-relations initiative, it might as well focus on areas where the potential payoffs are the greatest.

如果国际社会欲投资雄心勃勃的新公关计划，那么把目光集中在潜在收益比最高的领域是不错的选择。


After the Promised Land

追逐理想之地


LONDON – At the height of the Arab uprisings last spring, many Europeans were gripped by nightmare visions of a tsunami of migrants crashing against the continent’s shores.

伦敦 — — 去年春天，在阿拉伯起义愈演愈烈之际，许多欧洲人被大批移民将涌入欧洲的可怕远景困扰。