Ban knows that strong government action remains vital, but he also recognizes that civil society must also play a larger role, especially because too many governments and politicians are beholden to vested interests, and too few politicians think in time horizons that extend past the next election.

潘基文明白，政府的强势行动仍然是至关重要的，但他也知道，公民社会必须起到更大的作用，特别是当太多的政府和政客牵涉到既得利益而太少的政客能将目光放长到卸任以后的时候。


To empower global society to act, Ban has launched a bold new global initiative, for which I am grateful to volunteer.

为了增加全球社会行动的能量，潘基文抛出了一项雄心勃勃的新全球计划，我很高兴地自愿为之奔走。


The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is a powerful effort to mobilize global knowledge to save the planet.

联合国可持续发展解决方案网（Sustainable Development Solutions Network）是潘基文的力作，意在动员全球知识拯救地球。


The idea is to use global networks of knowledge and action to identify and demonstrate new, cutting-edge approaches to sustainable development around the world.

该计划的想法是利用全球知识和行动网识别和展示全世界的高精尖方法可持续发展新方法。


The network will work alongside and support governments, UN agencies, civil-society organizations, and the private sector.

该网将配合并支持政府、联合国机构、公民社会团体和私人部门。


Humanity needs to learn new ways to produce and use low-carbon energy, grow food sustainably, build livable cities, and manage the global commons of oceans, biodiversity, and the atmosphere.

人类需要学习新方法制造和使用低碳能源、可持续地种植粮食、建设宜居城市、治理全球共有的海洋、生物多样性和大气。


But time is running very short.

但时间紧迫。


Today’s mega-cities, for example, already have to confront dangerous heat waves, rising sea levels, more extreme storms, dire congestion, and air and water pollution.

比如，如今的大都市已面临着危险的热浪、海平面上升、极端风暴数量增加、可怕的拥挤以及空气和水污染等问题。


Agricultural regions already need to become more resilient in the face of increased climate volatility.

农业区也需要更强的应对气候波动增加的能力。


And as one region in one part of the world designs a better way to manage its transport, energy needs, water supplies, or food supplies, those successes should quickly become part of the global knowledge base, enabling other regions to benefit rapidly as well.

而当作为世界一部分的某地区设计出更好的交通、能源需求、水攻击和食品供给管理办法时，其成功应该很快地变为全球知识数据库的一部分，让其他地区也能早日获益。


Universities have a special role to play in the new UN knowledge network.

大学在这一新的联合国知识网中起着特殊的作用。


Exactly 150 years ago, in 1862, Abraham Lincoln created America’s “land-grant” universities to help local communities to improve farming and the quality of life through science.

150年前的1862年，亚伯拉罕·林肯创造了“政府授地 ” （ land-grant）大学，以帮助当地社区通过科学改善农业和生活质量。


Today, we need universities in all parts of the world to help their societies face the challenges of poverty reduction, clean energy, sustainable food supplies, and the rest.

如今，我们需要全世界的大学帮助所在社会应对减贫、清洁能源、可持续食品供给等挑战。


By linking together, and putting their curricula online, the world’s universities can become even more effective in discovering and promoting science-based solutions to complex problems.

通过互相连接以及将课程挂上网络，全世界大学可以在发现和促进基于科学的复杂问题解决之道方面变得更加高效。


The world’s corporate sector also has a significant role to play in sustainable development.

全球公司部门在可持续发展方面也起着重要作用。


Now the corporate sector has two faces.

如今，公司部门有着两副面孔。


It is the repository of cutting-edge sustainable technologies, pioneering research and development, world-class management, and leadership in environmental sustainability.

它是高精尖可持续技术储备库、研发活动先锋、世界级管理的先行者、环境可持续性的领导者。


Yet at the same time, the corporate sector lobbies aggressively to gut environmental regulations, slash corporate-tax rates, and avoid their own responsibility for ecological destruction.

但与此同时，公司部门也在大力游说放松环境监管、降低公司税率、逃避它们应付的生态毁灭责任。


Sometimes the same company operates on both sides of the divide.

有时候，同一家公司同时扮演着两方面的角色。


We urgently need far-sighted companies to join the Sustainable Development Solutions Network.

我们迫切需要具有远见卓识的公司加入到可持续发展解决方案网中来。


These companies are uniquely placed to move new ideas and technologies into early-stage demonstration projects, thereby accelerating global learning cycles.

这些公司在将新思想和新技术转化为早期示范工程方面能起到独一无二的作用，从而加快全球学习周期。


Equally important, we need a critical mass of respected corporate leaders to press their peers to cease the anti-environmental lobbying and campaign-finance practices that account for the inaction of governments.

同样重要的是，我们需要超过临界数量的广受尊敬的公司领导者来向他们的同侪施加压力，停止可能导致政府不作为的反环境游说和政治献金活动。


Sustainable development is a generational challenge, not a short-term task.

可持续发展是几代人都将面临的挑战，不是一朝一夕可以解决的问题。


The reinvention of energy, food, transport, and other systems will take decades, not years.

能源、食品、运输和其他系统的更新换代需要几十年，而不是几年。


But the long-term nature of this challenge must not lull us into inaction.

但该挑战的长期性质并不是我们不作为的理由。


We must start reinventing our productive systems now, precisely because the path of change will be so long and the environmental dangers are already so pressing.

正是因为变革需要极长时间，而环境风险已经迫在眉睫，我们才必须从现在就开始重塑我们的生产系统。


At the Rio+20 Summit this past June, the world’s governments agreed to adopt a new set of goals on sustainable development for the period after 2015, to build upon the Millennium Development Goals’ success in reducing poverty, hunger, and disease.

在去年6月的里约+20峰会上，全球政府同意在千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goal）在较少贫困、饥饿和病痛方面取得诸多成就的基础上设立新的面向2015年之后的可持续发展目标。


In the post-2015 era, the fight against poverty and the fight to protect the environment will go hand in hand, reinforcing each other.

2015年以后，全世界将携手共同抵抗贫困和保护环境。


Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has already initiated several global processes to help establish the new post-2015 goals in an open, participatory, and knowledge-based way.

秘书长潘基文已经启动了数项全球计划以帮助全世界以开放性、参与式、以知识为基础的方式设定面向2015年后的新目标。


The Secretary General’s launch of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network is therefore especially timely.

因此，秘书长启动可持续发展解决方案网的举动可谓正逢其时。


Not only will the world adopt a new set of goals to achieve sustainable development, but it will also have a new global network of expertise to help achieve those vital objectives.

全世界不但将接受新的可持续发展目标，还将拥有新的全球专家网络来实现这些关键目标。


A Good Rate Hike for Europe

欧洲升息的灵丹妙药


Two wrongs don’t make a right.

一错再错也不等于正确。


Just because European governments have failed to put bread on their constituents’ tables doesn’t mean that the European Central Bank should likewise fail in its job of promoting price stability in the euro zone.

仅仅因为欧洲政府未能把面包摆上选民的餐桌并不意味着欧洲央行也同样不能保持欧元区的价格稳定。


That may sound obvious, but abandoning price stability is exactly what some European politicians are advocating.

这听上去道理再明显不过，但某些欧洲政客却正在竭力鼓动放弃价格稳定。


For example, Italian politicians, who, given Italy’s recent dismal economic performance, would seem the least qualified to offer the ECB advice on monetary policy, are nonetheless advocating interest-rate cuts.

举例来讲，由于近来国内经济状况低迷，意大利政客照理应该是最没有资格向欧洲央行提出货币建议的，但恰恰正是他们拼命鼓吹削减利率。


Echoing comments by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Deputy Economics Minister Mario Baldassarri said in Il Sole 24 Ore last week that all efforts to boost growth are in vain “if someone is pushing on the brake pedal.”

秉承西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的意志，意大利经济部副部长意大利经济部副部长巴尔达萨里上周在《二十四小时太阳报》撰文称“如果有人踩着刹车 ” ， 那么所有推动经济增长的努力都将化为泡影。


Who’s he kidding?

他在打趣谁？


If anyone is “pushing down on the Italian growth brake” it is Berlusconi himself.

如果真有谁“踩着意大利增长的刹车 ” ， 那正是贝卢斯科尼本人。


He has made no efforts at economic reform during his term and now seeks to blame the ECB for Italy’s lame economic performance.

他执政期间没有进行任何经济改革，现在又试图把意大利的经济疲软归罪于欧洲央行。


But it is precisely the lack of economic reform at home that has made Italy one of the least competitive states in the euro-zone economy.

然而，正是国内经济改革的匮乏使得意大利沦为了欧元区内最缺乏竞争力的国家。


More than the usual “blame game” is at work here.

这比通常所说的“责备游戏”更甚一筹。


Pressures are mounting on the ECB to raise interest rates – and Berlusconi and Co.’s attacks are as much as an attempt to forestall future rate hikes as to get the ECB to loosen its monetary policy.

欧洲央行升息的压力越来越大¾而贝卢斯科尼及其同伴的攻击既是为了在未来大幅升息的情况下占得先机，也是为了让欧洲央行放松其货币政策。


Soaring energy prices, for example, have become a leading inflation risk.

节节攀升的能源价格，举例来讲，成了导致通货膨胀的首要危险因素。


But higher energy prices, by themselves, will not cause the ECB to pull the interest-rate trigger.

但仅仅是能源价格上涨本身还不足以使欧洲央行调整利率。


The key will be so-called “second-round effects” – whether growing crude prices lead to higher wage demands from trade unions.

关键问题是所谓的“次轮效应”¾那就是原油价格上涨会不会导致工会提出增加报酬的要求。


So far, the “social partners,” as ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet likes to call the unions, have been quiet.

迄今为止，被欧洲央行欧洲央行行长特里谢行长特里谢习惯地称之为“社会伙伴”的工会内部仍然风平浪静。


Should this change, the ECB will have to raise rates even if Europe’s economic growth remains slack.

但如果情况有变，那么即便经济增长依然迟缓，欧洲央行也不得不采取升息的措施。


The good news is that economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to be picking up (even in Italy).

好消息是：欧元区国家的经济增长似乎正趋于好转（意大利也不例外 ） 。


Though second-quarter GDP growth was weak — the euro-zone average was only 0.3% year on year – third-quarter data are indicating a sustained economic pick-up in the second half of the year. Only consumption is lagging.

尽管第二季度的国内生产总值仍不尽如人意，欧元区年均增长率只有区区0.3 % ， 但第三季度的统计数据显示：下半年经济增长正在持续性地恢复，只是消费还略显疲软。


How will the ECB react to better economic news?

欧洲央行对经济的恢复又将做何反应？


Some on the Governing Council have grown uncomfortable that euro-zone interest rates have stayed so low, at 2%, for so long (more than two years).

监管理事会的某些成员已经对两年多来欧元区利率维持在2%的低水准颇有微辞。


True, there is no inflation problem in the short run, but the ECB’s monetary policy focuses on the medium term.

没错，短期内不会出现通货膨胀，但欧洲央行的货币政策更加关注中期的目标。


One particular worry is that euro-zone money supply is well above the ECB’s benchmark level, indicating an excess supply of liquidity.

人们所担心的问题之一是欧元区的货币供应远远高于欧洲央行所拟定的基准，这显示了清偿能力已经供过于求。


It is doubtful that the ECB would raise interest rates to curb excess liquidity so long as economic recovery remains in question.

只要经济复苏还是个未知数，欧洲央行就不一定会提高利率，来控制过剩的清偿能力。


Slow growth has silenced the monetarists on the ECB’s Governing Council. This will change, however, once the economic pick-up is confirmed.

缓慢的增长速度堵住了欧洲央行监管理事会货币专家们的幽幽众口，但只要经济复苏得到确认，所有这些情况都会有所改变。


Interest-rate hikes may be coming sooner rather than later, which is why Berlusconi and French President Jacques Chirac are talking up interest-rate cuts now.

利率飙升可能会来得更早，这也是贝卢斯科尼和法国总统雅克·希拉克现在就大力鼓吹降低利率的原因所在。


Meanwhile, in Germany, the elections this September may have surprising consequences for ECB monetary policy.

与此同时，德国今年9月举行的选举可能会对欧洲央行的货币政策产生令人惊异的影响。


Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrats’ candidate, is a reformer, holding out hope for Germany’s future – and that of Europe.

基督教民主党候选人安格拉·默尔克是一位改革者，他为德国，以及欧洲的未来带来了希望。


Unfortunately, Merkel’s campaign is off to a rocky start, and the recent entry of Oskar Lafontaine’s extreme left-wing party into the fray may necessitate the formation of a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.

不幸的是，默尔克的竞选从一开始就困难重重。 最近奥斯卡·拉方丹的极左翼党派加入竞争后，可能就必须建立基督教民主党和社会民主党的总体联盟。


This would be bad news for the German economy, which could delay possible ECB interest rate hikes.

这对德国经济是个坏消息，因为它可能延迟欧洲央行利率的迅速飙升。


Because the expected gridlock in parliament would make reforms less likely, companies might hold off on investment, while consumers would be more likely to keep their wallets closed, because official policy would be even less clear than it is now.

由于议会中业已存在的僵局会削弱改革的可能性，导致公司延缓投资，而消费者则更有可能合拢钱包，因为官方政策比现在还要更加捉摸不定。


On the other hand, a center-right coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats could spark the ECB into action.

另一方面，基督教民主党和自由民主党的中右翼联盟也可能会刺激欧洲央行采取行动。


This raises an interesting point.

这就提出了一个非常有趣的观点。


The public should be relieved if the ECB raises rates, because this would most likely signal that the long-awaited economic recovery is well under way, and that inflationary repercussions are being addressed.

欧洲央行提高利率会让公众感到如释重负，因为利率的提升可能意味着人们盼望已久的经济恢复已经开始，而通货膨胀的影响也正在得以解决。


A hike, in other words, would indicate that good things are happening.

换句话讲，升息意味着好的形势已经开端。


But the public often views interest-rate increases as negative events that increase unemployment and stifle growth.

但公众却常常把升息看作一项负面因素，认为它有可能导致失业增长、抑止经济发展。


Blame-game politicians like Berlusconi, who have failed to put bread on the table, their minions in the media, and Keynesian economic professors who don’t understand and misrepresent Keynes sustain this distorted view.

像贝卢斯科尼这样未能将面包摆上普通百姓的餐桌但却精于责备游戏的政客、他们在各大媒体的御用走狗和根本没有弄懂凯恩斯理论真谛的凯恩斯主义经济学家仍然紧紧抱着歪曲的观点不放。


Europe would be a lot better off if someone told the public the truth.

如果有人对公众说出真相，那么无疑会为欧洲的经济发展带来福音。


A Good Year for God

上帝的幸运年


LONDON – It’s been a better year for God.

伦敦 — — 上帝在这一年运气不坏。


After withering literary assaults on the Almighty from the Oxford academic Richard Dawkins, the essayist Christopher Hitchens, and others, believers have hit back.

在挫败牛津大学学者理查德·道金斯、散文家克里斯托弗·希钦斯和其他人对万能的主发起的文学攻击后，上帝的信徒们开始反击。


Best of all has been The Case for God by the brilliant religion writer Karen Armstrong.

其中最出色的要数杰出的宗教作家凯伦·阿姆斯特朗的著作《上帝的旨意 》 。


More important still is the news that more people (certainly in Britain) are going to Christian churches of all denominations.

更重要的是新闻中报导英国有越来越多的人走进各教派基督教堂做礼拜。


Moreover, the Pope made a very successful visit to Britain in September.

此外，教皇9月对英国的访问非常成功。


We know already about heavy attendance at the country’s mosques.

当时英国教堂人满为患的盛况给我们留下深刻的记忆。


At this time of year, of course, many Christians who are not regular churchgoers attend the Nativity services.

当然每到一年中这个时候，很多平常不去教堂的基督徒也赶赴教堂参加圣诞仪式。


Carols, church bells, and mangers are still at the heart of mid-winter festivities, alongside the consumer binge.

赞美诗、教堂钟声和马槽依然是隆冬庆典的核心内容，此外还有消费者的狂热消费。


This year, however, the “big spend” in Europe may have been inhibited by the big winter freeze and the big austerity programs across most of the continent.

不过今年，欧洲的“狂欢购物”可能受到遍布欧洲大陆的冬季冰雪和大规模紧缩计划的抑制。


Even in the most Godless households, most children in Western societies probably know the details of the Christmas story.

即使在宗教信仰最弱的家庭，西方社会的多数儿童或许也知道圣诞故事的细节。


The travelers who can find no room at the inn.

人满为患的小旅馆。


The birth of a baby in the stables.

一名婴儿出生在马厩里。


The arrival of the wise men bearing gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh.

带着黄金、乳香和没药等礼物的智者。


We learn about all this at the same time as we are told about Father Christmas, his Lapland reindeers, and his sacks full of presents.

我们在听说圣诞老人、拉普兰驯鹿和装满礼物的包裹时就知道了这个故事。


We rapidly lose our belief in that winter myth.

我们很快就不再相信这个冬天的神话。


But we tend to retain into adulthood the same views of God that we formed in childhood.

但孩提时对上帝形成的印像却会一直保留到成年时期。


An old man with a long beard watches over us, and most of us retain a pretty literal opinion of the stories about his Son told in the Bible’s New Testament.

上帝是一直照看我们的长胡子老人，而且多数人对《圣经新约》中上帝之子的故事有着相当表面化的理解。


It is this God that atheists like Dawkins and Hitchens attack.

道金斯和希钦斯这样的无神论者所攻击的正是我们的上帝。


And, with such a target, it is not very difficult to poke holes and pile on the ridicule.

而且，面对这样一个目标，故意找茬加以嘲笑似乎并非难事。


Leave aside the fact that you can make an even stronger case against Godlessness – remember the atrocities of atheist totalitarians in the twentieth century – and consider the assault on those whose commitment to literal interpretations of religious texts means that they deny science and reason.

撇开可以大力反驳无神论的事实不谈（二十世纪无神论极权主义份子的暴行至今还让人记忆犹新 ） ， 单说攻击字面解读宗教典籍者意味着他们否定科学和推理。


To them the world was made in six days; evolution is a fanciful tale.

在他们看来创世纪只需要六天，而生物进化不过是虚构的故事。


Those of us who think that science and religion dwell in different domains, and who recall that Socrates argued that science did not teach you about morality or meaning, find that our case is undermined by the literalists and fundamentalists in every religion.

认为科学和宗教分属于不同领域、并牢记苏格拉底“科学无法教会人道德和生命意义”教诲的我们渐渐发现，各种拘泥于字面解释的信徒和原教旨主义者破坏了我们的论据。


There are Christians who know all about the fire and brimstone of the Book of Revelation, but seem not to have heard the instructions about generosity in the Sermon on the Mount.

大量基督徒完全相信《启示录》中地域的硫磺与烈火，但却似乎从未听到过《山中圣训》中有关宽容大度的训诫。


Likewise, there are hard-line Jews, such as the settler groups who drive Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem and Hebron, who have forgotten the early teachings of Jewish scholars who argued that strangers should be treated like your own people.

同样，到处都是态度强硬的犹太人，比方说将巴勒斯坦人赶出东耶路撒冷和希伯伦家园的定居者团体，他们早就把犹太学者早期的训诫抛到了脑后，这些训诫要求犹太教信徒给予陌生人亲人般的待遇。


And there are Muslims who ignore the Koran’s commands of pluralism, tolerance, and peace.

还有很多穆斯林信徒对《古兰经》多元化、忍耐与和平的训诫完全无视。


Where the atheist assault is often correct is in pinpointing the amount of harm frequently done in our world by such fundamentalists.

无神论者攻击的正确之处在于经常能够指出此类原教旨主义者对世界所造成的危害。


Right-wing American attitudes about their country’s place in the world are invigorated by fundamentalist dogma.

原教旨主义教义鼓舞了右翼美国人有关自己国家国际地位的姿态。


The United Nations is the devil’s own creation.

联合国是魔鬼自身的创造。


President Barack Obama is an un-American Muslim.

巴拉克·奥巴马总统具有非美穆斯林身份。


Palestine from the Jordan River to the coast should be handed to Israel so that the world can end with a cataclysmic Christian triumph.

从约旦河到海岸线的巴勒斯坦领土应该交由以色列控制，这样世界就会以一场灾难性的基督教胜利结尾。


Jewish fundamentalists obstruct any peace process that is left in the Middle East and build more illegal settlements.

犹太原教旨主义者极力阻挠中东仅存的和平进程，继续建设非法定居点。


Islamic fundamentalists define jihad as a war of terror against the West and call for an Islamic caliphate from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

伊斯兰原教旨主义者将针对西方世界的恐怖主义定义为圣战，呼吁建立从大西洋到太平洋的伊斯兰王国。


The strident and damaging dogmatism of fundamentalists of every stripe has a common feature: a truculent sense of grievance, rooted in fear and resentment of modernity.

形形色色原教旨主义分子的教条既咄咄逼人又为祸不浅，它们都有着共同的特色： 那就是植根于对现代社会的恐惧和愤懑的气势汹汹的怨恨。


Christian fundamentalism in America harks back to nineteenth-century populism and anti-intellectualism.

美国的基督教原教旨主义可以追溯到十九世纪的民粹主义和反智主义。


Members of evangelical churches associate their beliefs with the rugged individualism of the early pioneers.

福音教会会员将自己的信仰与早期先驱不屈不挠的个人主义密切联系在一起。


They are contemptuous of the establishment.

他们蔑视当权人士。


Jewish fundamentalists believe that Israel’s critics are anti-Semitic or, in the case of Jewish opponents of Israel’s harder-line policies, “self-hating Jews.”

犹太原教旨主义者相信以色列的批评者要么是反犹份子，要么就是像以色列强硬政策的犹太反对者那样，是“自我仇恨的犹太人 ” 。


Islamic fundamentalists reckon that what the rest of us regard as the liberalizing influence of technological progress and globalization is a brash re-run of Western colonialism.

以色列原教旨主义者认为我们其他人眼中技术进步和全球化的自由化影响反应出西方殖民主义不可一世的重新抬头。


For a happier New Year, we should listen to the core messages of all these great religions, above all the Confucian golden rule that we should never do to others what we would not like to be done to us.

要想在新的一年中生活得更加愉快，我们应当听取所有伟大宗教的核心教义，特别是儒家“己所不欲、勿施于人”的金科玉律。


What religion should teach us is not how to hate, but – to borrow again from Confucius – how to develop societies that look after and welcome the poor, the stranger, and the oppressed.

宗教教会我们的不该是仇恨，而是 — — 再次借用孔子的名言 — — 如何建设照顾欢迎穷人、外来者和被压迫者的大同社会。


That is the most important message for everyone, atheists included, to take from the Christian story of Christmas.

所有人，包括无神论者，都应该从基督的圣诞故事中领会这种最重要的精神涵义。


A Gravity Test for the Euro

欧元重力测试


CAMBRIDGE – Although I appreciate that exchange rates are never easy to explain or understand, I find today’s relatively robust value for the euro somewhat mysterious.

坎布里奇 — — 尽管我赞同汇率问题很难解释或理解清楚，但仍然对眼下欧元相对稳健的价值感到有些不解。


Do the gnomes of currency markets seriously believe that the eurozone governments’ latest “comprehensive package” to save the euro will hold up for more than a few months?

难道货币市场真的相信，欧元区各国政府最新的欧元拯救“完整方案”能维持几个月？


The new plan relies on a questionable mix of dubious financial-engineering gimmicks and vague promises of modest Asian funding.

新计划颇不靠谱，它依赖于可疑金融工程伎俩和从亚洲适量融资的含糊承诺。


Even the best part of the plan, the proposed (but not really agreed) 50% haircut for private-sector holders of Greek sovereign debt, is not sufficient to stabilize that country’s profound debt and growth problems.

即便是该计划的最佳部分 — — 即准备（但并未实际通过）让希腊主权债务的私人投资者损失50 % — —也不足以稳定希腊沉重的债务和增长问题。


So how is it that the euro is trading at a 40% premium to the US dollar, even as investors continue to view southern European government debt with great skepticism?

那么，既然投资者仍对南欧政府债务充满疑虑，为何欧元对美元仍有40%的溢价？


I can think of one very good reason why the euro needs to fall, and six not-so-convincing reasons why it should remain stable or appreciate.

在我看来，欧元必须下跌这一观点有一个非常充分的理由，而欧元应该维持稳定甚至升值有六个不那么令人信服的理由。


Let’s begin with why the euro needs to fall.

让我们从欧元为何必须下跌开始。


Absent a clear path to a much tighter fiscal and political union, which can lead only through constitutional change, the current halfway house of the euro system appears increasingly untenable.

在缺乏形成更紧密的财政和政治联盟的明确道路的背景下 — — 这一点只有通过修宪才能实现 — — 当前的欧元体系只是半吊子工程，且正在变得越来越难以为继。


It seems clear that the European Central Bank will be forced to buy far greater quantities of eurozone sovereign (junk) bonds.

显然，欧洲央行将被迫购买数量甚巨的欧元区主权（垃圾）债券。


That may work in the short term, but if sovereign default risks materialize – as my research with Carmen Reinhart suggests is likely – the ECB will in turn have to be recapitalized.

这样做在短期可能有效，但如果主权违约风险成为现实 — — 根据我和卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）的研究，这很有可能 — — 那么欧洲央行自身也将需要资本重组。


And, if the stronger northern eurozone countries are unwilling to digest this transfer – and political resistance runs high – the ECB may be forced to recapitalize itself through money creation.

此外，如果较稳健的北欧国家不愿意承担转移成本 — — 政治阻力相当大 — — 欧洲央行可能被迫用印钞来实现自身的资本重组。


Either way, the threat of a profound financial crisis is high.

无论如何，爆发深度金融危机的风险很高。


Given this, what arguments support the current value of the euro, or its further rise?

既然如此，支持欧元维持当前水平甚至有所升值的观点有哪些呢？


First, investors might be telling themselves that in the worst-case scenario, the northern European countries will effectively push out the weaker countries, creating a super-euro.

首先，投资者可能会告诉自己，在最坏情形下，北欧国家将抛弃疲软国家，创造新的超级欧元。


But, while this scenario has a certain ring of truth, surely any breakup would be highly traumatic, with the euro diving before its rump form recovered.

但是，尽管这一情景不能说完全没有可能，但欧元区的分崩离析将是高度灾难性的，欧元得先跌到底才能复苏。


Second, investors may be remembering that even though the dollar was at the epicenter of the 2008 financial panic, the consequences radiated so widely that, paradoxically, the dollar actually rose in value.

其次，投资者可能记得，在2008年的金融恐慌中，处于震中的美元由于恐慌影响覆盖面非常广，反而有所升值。


Although it may be difficult to connect the dots, it is perfectly possible that a huge euro crisis could have a snowball effect in the US and elsewhere.

尽管很难将当初的美元和现在欧元联系在一起，但巨型欧元危机仍大有可能在美国和其他地区造成连锁反应。


Perhaps the transmission mechanism would be through US banks, many of which remain vulnerable, owing to thin capitalization and huge portfolios of mortgages booked far above their market value.

或许传递机制会是美国银行 — — 许多美国银行仍然十分脆弱，因为它们的资本充足率很低，手中的按揭组合簿记价值也远高于市场价值。


Third, foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds may be keen to keep buying up euros to hedge against risks to the US and their own economies.

第三，外国央行和主权财富基金可能乐于继续购买欧元，以对冲美元和自身经济的风险。


Government investors are not necessarily driven by the return-maximizing calculus that motivates private investors.

政府投资者与私人投资者不同，并不一定按最大回报的标准投资。


If foreign official demand is the real reason behind the euro’s strength, the risk is that foreign sovereign euro buyers will eventually flee, just as private investors would, only in a faster and more concentrated way.

如果外国官方需求才是欧元强势背后的真正原因，那么欧元所面临的风险就是外国主权买家的最终逃离 — — 与私人投资者不会有什么两样，只是更快更集中。


Fourth, investors may believe that, ultimately, US risks are just as large as Europe’s.

第四，投资者可能会认为，说到底，美国的风险一点都不比欧洲小。


True, the US political system seems stymied in coming up with a plan to stabilize medium-term budget deficits.

确实如此，美国政治体系在达成稳定中期预算赤字计划方面受到了阻碍。


Whereas the US Congress’s “supercommittee,” charged with formulating a fiscal-consolidation package, will likely come up with a proposal, it is far from clear that either Republicans or Democrats will be willing to accept compromise in an election year.

尽管主管制定财政整合计划的美国国会“超级委员会”或许能够拿出一套���案，但共和党和民主党是否愿意在选举年妥协还远未可知。


Moreover, investors might be worried that the US Federal Reserve will weigh in with a third round of “quantitative easing,” which would further drive down the dollar.

此外，投资者还可能担心美联储会考虑实行第三轮“量化宽松 ” ， 这将进一步压低美元。


Fifth, the current value of the euro does not seem wildly out of line on a purchasing-power basis.  An exchange rate of $1.4:€1 is cheap for Germany’s export powerhouse, which could probably operate well even with a far stronger euro.

第五，欧元的当前值并未脱离购买力评价标准太远。 1欧元兑1.4美元的汇率对德国出口商来说很便宜，即使欧元出现大升值，它们也不会受到多大影响。


For the eurozone’s southern periphery, however, today’s euro rate is very difficult to manage.

但是，对欧元区南部外围国家来说，现在的欧元汇率是难以为继的。


Whereas some German companies persuaded workers to accept wage cuts to help weather the financial crisis, wages across the southern periphery have been marching steadily upwards, even as productivity has remained stagnant.

一些德国公司说服员工接受减薪以助抵御金融危机，但南欧外围国家的工资一直在稳步上升，甚至在生产率停滞不前时也照涨不误。


But, because the overall value of the euro has to be a balance of the eurozone’s north and south, one can argue that 1.4 is within a reasonable range.

但是，由于欧元的整体价值必须平衡南欧和北欧，因此，可以说1.4处于一个合理的区间内。


Finally, investors might just believe that the eurozone leaders’ latest plan will work, even though the last dozen plans have failed.

最后，投资者可能认为，尽管此前的诸多计划都以失败告终，但欧元区领导人的最新计划终将见效。


Abraham Lincoln is credited with saying “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”

林肯有句名言 ： “ 你可以一直欺骗一些人，可也以一度欺骗所有人，但你不可能一直欺骗所有人。


A comprehensive euro fix will surely arrive for some of the countries at some time, but not for all of the countries anytime soon.

”完整的欧元修复计划会在某个时候在某些国家出现，这是肯定的，但不可能一下子在所有国家出现。


So, yes, there are plenty of vaguely plausible reasons why the euro, despite its drawn-out crisis, has remained so firm against the dollar so far.

因此，你可以找出大把雄辩理由证明为何欧元尽管存在旷日持久的危机，但到目前为止仍然维持着对美元的坚挺。


But don’t count on a stable euro-dollar exchange rate – much less an even stronger euro – in the year ahead.

但展望明年，别指望欧元-美元汇率能保持稳定，至于欧元走强的可能性，那就更渺茫了。


A Green Alternative to Austerity?

一个紧缩的绿色替代项?


OXFORD – While austerity in Europe faces increasing social resistance, in principle it has the merit of simplicity.

发自牛津 — — 虽然欧洲紧缩政策面临的社会阻力与日俱增，但至少该政策在原理上还具备简单直接的优点。


As the debate on fiscal consolidation versus growth intensifies, it is clear that there is little agreement on how to kick-start the economy, beyond fielding broad stimulus packages.

而随着巩固财政还是确保增长的辩论日趋激烈，显然除了实施大规模刺激政策之外，在如何启动经济方面并未形成多少共识。


One idea is that environmental technology might feed a virtuous cycle of innovation and employment.

一项理念随之产生，认为环保科技可以推动一个创新与就业的良性循环。


To some, green growth evokes a countryside covered with windmills and urban roofs lined with solar panels.

在某些人看来，绿色增长就意味着遍布乡村的风车以及城市屋顶上的太阳能电池板。


But it is broader than that.

但这其实只是冰山一角。


For example, when Airbus moved from injection molding to 3D printing to produce the metal hinges for its airplanes’ doors, it reduced their weight by half, yielding phenomenal savings in material and associated fuel consumption over a lifetime of flying those hinges around the world.

以空中客车公司生产的机舱门铰链为例，用三维喷射技术取代原有注射成型工艺可使铰链的重量减少一半，不但节省了大量生产材料，在这些铰链全球飞行的生命周期中也随之减少了许多燃料消耗。


Still, it is easier to find exciting anecdotes than it is to show how they scale up to revitalizing an entire economy.

但相对于演示这些技术如何扩大并使整个经济重焕生机，讲故事显然更加容易。


Moreover, there is a great diversity of narratives on the green economy – and their proliferation is likely to grow.

此外，对绿色经济的不同故事描述之间也大相径庭，而且这些分歧还有不断加大之势。


This June, thousands of activists, policymakers, and business people will converge on Rio de Janeiro for the third giant United Nations Sustainable Development Conference (Rio+20), whose theme is the green economy.

今年6月，数千名社会活动分子，政策制定者和商界人士都将齐聚里约热内卢，参加以绿色经济为主题的第三届联合国可持续发展会议（Rio+20 ） 。


The conference will unleash new arguments about green jobs, growth, cost increases, cost reductions, changes in values, consumer choice – green this and green that.

该会议也将释放出一批关于绿色职位、增长、成本增加、成本削减，价值观转变和消费者选择的新论点 — — 什么都离不开绿色。


As a co-author of A New Growth Path for Europe, a report commissioned by the German government, I am guilty of contributing to this cacophony of complementary perspectives on green growth.

作为德国政府主持撰写的报告《一条欧洲新增长路径》的合著者，笔者很抱歉在本已众说纷纭而又互为补充的绿色增长前景预测方面又增添了一把声音。


The European Climate Foundation had already published its Roadmap 2050, A Practical Guide to a Prosperous, Low-Carbon Europe.

欧洲气候基金会已经发表了《2050路线图，一个实现繁荣低碳欧洲的实用指南 》 。


Since then, the UN Environment Program has released its Green Economy Report; McKinsey has written about the Resource Revolution; and the International Trade Unions Council has published Growing Green and Decent Jobs – to name but a few.

自那以后，联合国环境计划发布了其《绿色经济报告 》 ； 麦肯锡撰写了《资源革命 》 ； 国际贸易联盟委员会也发表了名为《增加绿色且体面的工作》的报告。


All take somewhat different approaches and offer different recommendations, making it hard for policymakers to see the forest through the trees.

上述所有报告都采取了某种不同的研究路径并提出了各式各样的建议，也令政策制定者们如坠五里雾中。


And, at the root of this multiplicity of perspectives lays the fact that economics struggles to explain how growth and innovation move an economy as a whole.

而这些预测之所以五花八门，根源就在于经济学也无法完美解释增长和创新是如何令一个经济整体向前推进的。


The macroeconomic models on which policymakers depend are solid tools in times of smooth and incremental evolution, but green growth is not about gradual change.

在平稳且渐进式发展的时代，宏观经济模型是政策制定者们的可靠工具，但绿色增长却不属于渐进式变革的范畴。


For example, the European Union’s goal of achieving an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 implies a complete overhaul of EU infrastructure in just a few decades.

举个例子，欧盟在2050年实现温室气体减排80%的目标必然意味着在未来短短几十年内对联盟境内各类基础设施进行全面升级改造。


Economists’ inability to model such rapid, radical change should not be taken as a condemnation of the discipline; it is simply a reflection of the state of our knowledge, and of the fact that the economy is really, really complicated.

即便经济学家无法为这种迅速且激进的变革构建出模型，他们也不应该受到谴责，因为这只不过反映了我们当前的知识水平，以及经济学真的非常、非常复杂的现实。


We simply do not yet have sufficiently precise insights into how all of its elements interact during times of far-reaching change, whether it be a financial crisis or a growth spurt.

我们只不过尚未具备足够的深刻洞察力去理解在一场遥远的变革 — — 不管是一场金融危机还是爆发式增长 — — 中所有的因素将如何互动。


Yet, the studies of green growth mentioned above all appear to provide such explanations.

但上述提及的所有关于绿色增长的研究似乎都提供了这类解释。


So, what do they really tell us?

那么他们究竟告诉了我们些什么？


In practice, each is limited to just one or two aspects of the economy, and describes how these interact.

但实际操作中，每一项研究都仅仅局限于经济中的一个或两个方面，并对它们的互动方式进行了解释。


Growing Green and Decent Jobs looks at the relationship between investment and jobs.

《增加绿色且体面的工作》研究了投资与就业之间的关系。


A New Growth Path for Europe examines the impact of expectations and learning-by-doing.

《一条欧洲新增长路径》解释了预期以及边干边学所产生的影响。


Roadmap 2050 focuses on greening the power system.

《2050路线图》则把目光集中在能源系统的绿色化之上。


The authors then make a leap of faith to derive conclusions about the economy as a whole.

随后各报告的作者们都对作为一个整体的经济下了一个大胆的结论。


But, while the value of these studies is in the light that they shed on the parts, the ensuing headlines invariably are about the whole, articulated in terms of GDP and jobs.

但当这些研究的价值体现在对各部分的解释之上时，随后的核心却总是关于整体，而整体则是用GDP和就业来进行衡量的。


Each of the studies describes a part of a green economy, but none can capture the whole – not because they are deficient, but because it is simply beyond our capability.

每一项研究都解释了绿色经济的一部份，没有一个能涵盖整体 — — 这不是因为这些研究有缺陷，只不过因为这件事已经完全超出了我们的能力之外。


That said, the fact that one cannot prove conclusively how green growth would work does not mean that we should give up on the idea.

这说明，虽然人们尚未可以确凿证明绿色增长是有效的，但也不意味着我们应当放弃这个理念。


We know from history that waves of innovation, from the steam engine to the information and communications revolution, have led to dramatic increases in economic growth.

我们都从历史上中看到过那些革新的浪潮，从蒸汽引擎到信息与通信革命，都引发了激动人心的经济增长。


We cannot prove that a wave of environmental innovation will have a similar effect, but the studies of the parts make such an outcome highly plausible.

我们无法证明一股环境革新的浪潮会产生类似的效应，但针对不同部分的研究使得这样一个结果更有说服力。


As humans, we are uniquely equipped to make decisions on the basis of ambiguous information – in fact, we do it all the time.

作为人类，我们都拥有依据模糊信息做出决定的独特能力 — — 事实上我们无时无刻都在这样做。


When we choose a career or a spouse in our private lives, or when a politician seizes an opportunity from a plethora of possibilities, the task at hand is always about making highly consequential decisions based on imperfect information.

当我们选择一项事业或者配偶，或是一个政治家从一堆可能性中抓住一个机会的时候，当务之急往往都是基于不完整的信息来做出可能引发连串后果的决定。


A big pile of green-growth reports demonstrates the plausibility of this path to recovery from an historic economic crisis.

一大叠绿色发展报告都展示了这条把全世界从一个历史性的经济危机中实现复苏的路径的说服力。


It is now up to us to realize its potential.

而如今也是我们将其潜力变成现实的时候了。


Green growth offers a realistic alternative to the faltering austerity approach to overcoming the current economic crisis.

相对于当前步履蹒跚的经济危机紧缩应对政策，绿色增长提供了一个现实的替代选项。


Policymakers should incorporate this thinking into the “beyond austerity” narrative that is taking shape in a growing number of key EU member states.

而政策制定者们也应当把这一理念合并到当前在各欧盟主要成员国中日渐成形的“超越紧缩”述事中去。


Ethics and Agriculture

伦理与农业


MELBOURNE – Should rich countries – or investors based there – be buying agricultural land in developing countries?

墨尔本—发达国家（或那里的投资者）应该购买发展中国家的农地吗？


That question is raised in Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South, a report issued last year by the Land Matrix Partnership, a consortium of European research institutes and nongovernmental organizations.

这是欧洲研究机构和非政府组织联合体土地矩阵合伙组织（Land Matrix Partnership）去年题为《南半球跨国农用土地交易 》 （ Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South）的报告中提出的问题。


The report shows that since 2000, investors or state bodies in rich or emerging countries have bought more than 83 million hectares (more than 200 million acres) of agricultural land in poorer developing countries.

报告显示，自2000年以来，发达或新兴国家的投资者或国家机构在更不发达国家购买了8 300多万公顷（2亿多英亩）的农地。


This amounts to 1.7% of the world’s agricultural land.

这相当于世界农地面积的1.7 % 。


Most of these purchases have been made in Africa, with two-thirds taking place in countries where hunger is widespread and institutions for establishing formal land ownership are often weak.

大部分农地买卖发生在非洲，其中三分之二发生在饥饿蔓延、缺少正式土地所有权框架的国家。


The purchases in Africa alone amount to an area of agricultural land the size of Kenya.

非洲的农地买卖量相当于肯尼亚的总面积。


It has been claimed that foreign investors are purchasing land that has been left idle; thus, by bringing it into production, the purchases are increasing the availability of food overall.

外国投资者宣称自己购买的是闲置土地，因此，通过让这些土地形成产出，土地买卖增加了粮食供应量。


But the Land Matrix Partnership report found that this is not the case: roughly 45% of the purchases involved existing croplands, and almost a third of the purchased land was forested, indicating that its development may pose risks for biodiversity.

但土地矩阵合伙组织的报告发现并非如此：约45%的土地买卖对象是已存在的耕地，几乎三分之一的交易土地是林地，这表明开发可能威胁生物多样性。


The investments are both private and public (for example, by state-owned entities) and come from three different groups of countries: emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia, and South Korea; oil-rich Gulf states; and wealthy developed economies like the United States and several European countries.

这类投资既有私人部门，也有公共部门（如国有实体 ） ， 主要购买者是三类国家：中国、印度、巴西、南非、马来西亚和韩国等新兴经济体；波斯湾富油国；以及美国和不少欧洲国家等富有的发达国家。


On average, per capita income in the countries that are the source of these investments is four times higher than in the target countries.

平均而言，投资来源国的人均收入比投资目标国高出四倍。


Most of the investments are aimed at producing food or other crops for export from the countries in which the land is acquired, for the obvious reason that richer countries can pay more for the output.

大部分投资的目的是在土地收购国生产粮食和其他作物并用于出口，其中的原因显而易见 — — 较发达国家对土地产出的出价更高。


More than 40% of such projects aim to export food to the source country – suggesting that food security is a major reason for buying the land.

40%以上的投资目的是向投资来源国出口粮食 — — 这表明粮食安全是购买土地的主要原因。


Oxfam International calls some of these deals “land grabs.”

国际乐施会（Oxfam International）将部分交易称为“抢地 ” 。


Its own report, Our Land, Our Lives,indicates that, since 2008, communities affected by World Bank projects have brought 21 formal complaints alleging violations of their land rights.

其报告《我们的土地，我们的生命 》 （ Our Land, Our Lives）显示，自2008年以来，受世界银行项目影响的社会共提出了21次指责破坏其土地权利的正式投诉。


Oxfam, drawing attention to large-scale land acquisitions that have entailed direct rights violations, has called on the Bank to freeze investments in land purchases until it can set standards ensuring that local communities are informed of them in advance, with the option of refusing them.

为了吸引人们对存在直接侵权现象的大规模土地收购的关注，乐施会呼吁世界银行冻结土地买卖投资，直到保证当地社会能提前获得告知并选择是否拒绝的标准出台。


Oxfam also wants the Bank to ensure that these land deals do not undermine either local or national food security.

乐施会还呼吁世界银行保证这些土地交易不能破坏当地和国家粮食安全。


In response, the World Bank agreed that there are instances of abuse in land acquisition, particularly in developing countries in which governance is weak, and said that it supported more transparent and inclusive participation.

作为回应，世界银行同意土地收购过程中存在不端行为，特别是在治理薄弱的发展中国家，并表示它支持更透明、更包容的参与。


At the same time, it pointed to the need to increase food production to feed the extra two billion people expected to be alive in 2050, and suggested that more investment in agriculture in developing countries is required to improve productivity.

与此同时，世界银行也指出，增加粮食产量以喂饱2050年的20亿预计新增人口是十分必要的，并暗示要改善生产率，就必须增加发展中国家的农业投资。


The Bank rejected the idea of a moratorium on its own work with investors in agriculture, arguing that this would target precisely those who are most likely to do the right thing.

世界银行拒绝中止其与农业投资者的合作，表示这类合作将明确定位于最有可能把事情作对的人和组织。


One may ask whether transparency and the requirement that local landholders consent to a sale is enough to protect people living in poverty.

你也许会问，有了透明度以及必须有当地地主愿意出售的要求就足以保护生活在贫困中的呃人们了吗？


Supporters of free markets will argue that if local landowners wish to sell their land, that is their choice to make.

自由市场的支持者会说，如果当地地主愿意出售他们的土地，那么这就是他们的自主选择。


But, given the pressures of poverty and the lure of cash, what does it take for people to be able to make a genuinely free and informed choice about selling something as significant as a right to land?

但是，在贫困的压力和现金的诱惑下，是什么让人们能够在信息充分的情况下真正自由地做出出售重要如土地的决策？


After all, we do not allow poor people to sell their kidneys to the highest bidder.

毕竟，我们不能允许穷人向出价最高者出售肾脏。


Of course, hardline supporters of free markets will say that we should.

当然，一根筋的自由市场支持者会说我们应该允许。


But, at the very least, it needs to be explained why people should be prohibited from selling kidneys, but not from selling the land that grows their food.

但是，无论如何，必须解释人们为什么应该被禁止出售肾脏而可以出售长出粮食的土地。


Most people can live without one kidney.

大部分人都可以在失去一个肾脏的情况下活着。


No one can live without food.

但没人可以在没有粮食的情况下活着。


Why does the purchase of body parts give rise to international condemnation, while the purchase of agricultural land does not – even when it involves evicting local landholders and producing food for export to rich countries instead of for local consumption?

为什么买卖人体器官会引发国际社会的谴责，而买卖农地则否 — — 即使后者包括驱逐当地地主以及为发达国家而不是当地消费者生产供出口的粮食？


The World Bank may indeed be more concerned about local landholders’ rights than other foreign investors are.

事实上，与其他外国投资者相比，世界银行也许能够更关心当地地主的权利。


If so, the 21 complaints made against Bank projects are most likely the visible tip of a vast iceberg of violations of land rights by foreign investors in agricultural projects in developing countries – with the others remaining invisible because victims have no access to any complaint procedure.

果真如此的话，21份针对世界银行项目的投诉极有可能只是外国投资者在发展中国家农业项目上大规模侵犯土地权利状况的冰山一角，有大量侵权案例我们不曾看到，因为受害者投诉无门。


One such case belatedly came to the attention of the United Nations Human Rights Committee.

一宗此类案件终于引起了联合国人权委员会的注意。


In November, the Committee concluded that Germany had failed to police the Neumann Kaffee Gruppe regarding its complicity in the forced eviction of several villages in Uganda to make way for a large coffee plantation.

11月，该委员会认定德国在诺依曼咖啡集团（Neumann Kaffee Gruppe）串谋强迫驱赶乌干达几个村庄村民建立大规模咖啡种植园的问题上不作为。


But the evictions took place in 2001, and the villagers are still living in extreme poverty.

但驱赶行为发生在2001年，被驱赶的村民至今仍生活在极端贫困中，他们没有得到侵权补偿，不管是乌干达还是德国。


They found no remedy, in either Uganda or Germany, for the violation of rights that, according to the Committee, they possess under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which Germany is a signatory.

他们的土地权利受《民事和政治权利国际公约 》 （ International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights）保护，而德国是签约国之一。


Are we to believe that landholders fare better with Chinese or Saudi investors?

我们可以指望当地地主从中国或沙特投资者手中获得更好的补偿吗？


The Rise of the Food Barons

食品大亨的崛起


BERLIN – The industrial-agriculture sector has long faced criticism for practices that contribute to climate change, environmental destruction, and rural poverty.

柏林—长期以来，工业农业（industrial-agriculture sector）一直被人诟病加剧了气候变化、环境破坏和农村贫困。


And yet the sector has taken virtually no steps to improve quality and sustainability, or to promote social justice.

但给行业几乎没有采取任何措施改善质量和可持续性，或促进社会公平。


This is not surprising. Although there are more than 570 million farmers and seven billion consumers worldwide, just a handful of companies control the global industrial-agriculture value chain – from field to shop counter.

这不足为奇，全世界有超过5.7亿农民和七十亿消费者，但从田间到店头，全球工业农业的价值链控制在一小撮公司手中。


Given the high profits and vast political power of these companies, changes to the status quo are not in their interest.

这些公司利润丰厚，炙手可热，改变现状可不符合它们的利益。


Moreover, market concentration in the agriculture sector is on the rise, owing to increased demand for the agricultural raw materials needed in food, animal feed, and energy production.

此外，拜粮食、饲料和能源生产的农业原材料需求增长所赐，农业的市场集中度也在升高。


As the middle class in southern countries has grown, its members’ consumption and nutritional habits have changed, boosting global demand for processed foods – and setting off a scramble for market power among multinational agricultural, chemical, and food corporations.

随着南方国家中产阶级的崛起，他们的消费和营养习惯也发生了改变，从而刺激了对加工食品的需求，也掀起了一场跨国农业、化工和食品公司争夺市场大权的战争。


The biggest players in these sectors have been buying out their smaller competitors for years.

多年来，这些行业中的最大牌公司一直在收购规模较小的竞争对手。


But now they are also buying out one another, often with financing provided by investors from completely different sectors.

但如今，它们同时也在互相收购，融资常常来自完全不同行业的投资者。


Consider the seed and agrochemical sector, where Bayer, the second-largest pesticide producer in the world, is in the process of acquiring Monsanto, the largest seed producer, for €66 billion ($74 billion).

以种子和农化行业为例，全球第二大杀虫剂生产商拜耳公司（Bayer）正在收购第一大种子生产商孟山都公司（Monsanto ） ， 作价660欧元。


If the United States and the European Union approve the deal, as seems likely, just three conglomerates – Bayer-Monsanto, Dow-DuPont and ChemChina-Syngenta – will control over 60% of the global seed and agrochemical market.

如果美国和欧盟批准这笔交易（目前看来很有可能 ） ， 那么三家企业集团 — — 拜耳-孟山都、陶氏-杜邦（Dow-DuPont）和中化-先正达（ChemChina-Syngenta）将控制全球60%以上的种子和农化市场。


“Baysanto” alone would be the proprietor of almost every genetically modified plant on the planet.

光是“拜山都”一家，就几乎囊括了全世界所有的转基因作物。


With other large mergers also being announced, the global agriculture market at the end of 2017 could look very different than it did at the beginning.

随着其他大型收购案的不断宣布，到2017年底，全球农业市场将与年初发生天翻地覆的变化。


Each of the three major conglomerates will be closer to its goal of achieving domination of the seed and pesticide markets – at which point they will be able to dictate food products, prices, and quality worldwide.

三大企业集团都将更加接近它们实现主宰种子和杀虫剂市场的目标 — — 到时候它们就可以随心所欲地控制全球食品的生产、价格和质量了。


The agrotechnical sector is experiencing some of the same changes as the seed sector.

农业技术行业正在经历与种子行业类似的变化。


The five largest corporations account for 65% of the market, with Deere & Company, the owner of the John Deere brand, in the lead.

五家最大的公司控制了65%的市场，约翰迪尔（John Deere）商标所有人迪尔公司在这方面一马当先。


In 2015, Deere & Company reported $29 billion in sales, surpassing the $25 billion that Monsanto and Bayer made selling seeds and pesticides.

2015年，迪尔公司披露的销售额为290亿美元，超过了卖种子和杀虫剂的孟山都和拜耳的250亿美元销售额。


The most promising new opportunity for food corporations today lies in the digitization of agriculture.

如今，食品公司最憧憬的新机会在于农业数字化。


This process is still in its early stages, but it is gathering momentum, and eventually it will cover all areas of production.

农业数字化过程仍处于初级阶段，但正在起势，最终将涵盖所有产品领域。


Soon enough, drones will take over the task of spraying pesticides; livestock will be equipped with sensors to track milk quantities, movement patterns, and feed rations; tractors will be controlled by GPS; and app-controlled sowing machines will assess soil quality to determine the optimal distance between rows and plants.

过不了多久，无人机全面接管喷洒杀虫剂的任务；牲畜将配备传感器追踪产奶量、运动轨迹和饲料配给；拖拉机将通过全球定位系统控制；而通过手机应用控制的播种机将评估土壤质量决定作物的最优间距。


To maximize the benefits of these new technologies, the companies that already dominate the value chain have begun cooperating with one another.

为了实现新技术效益最大化，已经占据价值链主导地位的公司早已开始彼此合作。


The John Deeres and Monsantos have now joined forces.

约翰迪尔们和孟山都们已经结成了联盟。


The confluence of soil and weather “big data,” new agrotechnologies, genetically modified seeds, and new developments in agrochemistry will help these companies save money, protect natural resources, and maximize crop yields worldwide.

土壤和天气“大数据”的聚合、新农业技术、转基因种子和农化新发展趋势将帮助这些公司节省成本、保护自然资源、实现全球作物收成最大化。


But while this possible future bodes well for some of the world’s largest companies, it leaves the environmental and social problems associated with industrialized agriculture unsolved.

但这样的未来可能固然有利于少数世界性大公司，并不能解决工业化农业遗留下来的相关环境和社会问题。


Most farmers, particularly in the global South, will never be able to afford expensive digital-age machinery.

大部分农民，特别是全球南方地区的农民，永远买不起昂贵的数字时代机器。


The maxim “grow or go” will be replaced with “digitize or disappear.”

“要么成长，要么离开”的格言将变成“要么数字化，要么消失 ” 。


The ETC Group, an American non-governmental organization, has already outlined a future scenario in which the major agrotechnology corporations move upstream and absorb the seed and pesticide producers.

在美国非政府组织ETC集团所列出的未来情景中，农业技术大公司将向上游移动，吸收种子和杀虫剂生产商。


At that point, just a few companies will determine everything that we eat.

到那时，少数几家公司就能决定我们吃的一切。


Indeed, the same market-concentration problem applies to other links in the value chain, such as agricultural traders and supermarkets.

事实上，相同的市场集中问题在价值链的其他环节也存在，比如农业贸易商和超级市场。


And even though food processing is not yet consolidated on a global scale, it is still dominated at the regional level by companies such as Unilever, Danone, Mondelez, and Nestlé.

而尽管食品加工尚未出现全球规模的整合，但在地区层面上，联合利华、达能、蒙德利兹（Mondelez）和雀巢的公司已经实现了主宰。


These companies make money when fresh or semi-processed food is replaced by highly processed convenience foods such as frozen pizza, canned soup, and ready-made meals.

随着新鲜和半加工食品被速冻披萨、汤罐头和即食肉制品等深加工食品所取代，这些公司也赚了个盆满钵满。


While lucrative, this business model is closely linked to obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases.

尽管利润丰厚，但这一商业模式很容易导致肥胖、糖尿病和其他慢性疾病。


Worse, food corporations are also profiting from the proliferation of illnesses for which they are partly responsible, by marketing “healthy” processed foods enriched with protein, vitamins, probiotics, and omega-3 fatty acids.

更糟糕的是，食品公司也因为它们负有部分责任的疾病扩散中而获利，因为它们推广的“健康”加工食品中富含蛋白质、维生素、益生菌欧米茄-3脂肪酸。


Meanwhile, corporations are amassing market power at the expense of those at the bottom of the value chain: farmers and workers.

与此同时，这些公司赢得市场权力以价值链底层 — — 农民和工人的牺牲为代价。


International Labor Organization standards guarantee all workers the right to organize, and they prohibit forced and child labor and proscribe race and gender discrimination.

国际劳工组织规则保障所有工人都有组织工会的权利，也禁止强迫劳动和童工以及种族和性别歧视。


But labor-law violations have become the norm, because efforts to enforce ILO rules are often quashed, while trade union members are routinely threatened, fired, and even murdered.

但违反劳动法的情况司空见惯，因为国际劳工组织规则的执行力往往很弱，而工会成员常常受到威胁、解雇甚至谋杀。


In this hostile climate, minimum-wage, overtime-pay, and workplace-safety standards are openly neglected.

在如此不利的环境下，最低工资、加班费和工作场所安全标准被公然无视。


And women, in particular, are at a disadvantage, because they are paid less than their male counterparts and often must settle for seasonal or temporary jobs.

妇女尤其不利，因为她们的薪酬低于男性同事，从事的也常常是季节性或临时性工作。


Today, half of the world’s 800 million starving people are small farmers and workers connected to the agricultural sector.

如今，全世界8亿吃不饱饭的人中有一半是小农和农业相关工人。


Their lot will hardly improve if the few companies already dominating that sector become even more powerful.

如果极少数已经成为行业主宰的公司继续获得更大的权力，他们的境况将难以改善。


How to Feed the World

如何养活世界


PRAGUE – Hunger has wracked humanity since time immemorial.

布拉格—从远古时代开始，饥饿一直困扰着人类。


Nearly every major society has been shaped by famine; one estimate suggests that China suffered drought or flood-induced starvation in at least one province almost every year from 108 BC to 1911.

几乎所有主要社会都受到饥荒影响；有人估算，从公元前108年到公园1911年间，每一年中国都至少有一个省出现旱灾或洪灾导致饥荒的情况。


Yet the struggle against hunger is a battle that humanity could finally win.

但与饥饿的斗争是一场人类最终能够取得胜利的斗争。


More cereals were produced annually in the last quarter of the twentieth century than in any preceding period, and more grain will be harvested this year than at any time in history.

二十世纪最后四分之一的谷物年产量要比此前任何一个时期都要高，而今年的谷物产量更是要高于历史上任何一年。


Since 1992, the number of hungry people worldwide has plummeted by more than 200 million, even as the human population grew by nearly two billion.

自1992年以来，全球饥民数量减少了两亿多，尽管人口数量增加了近二十亿。


But enormous challenges remain.

但仍有诸多挑战。


Affordable, nutritious food is one of people’s top priorities everywhere, and one in nine people still do not get enough food to be healthy.

平价营养食物是所有人类最要紧的事，而有九分之一的人类仍然无法获得足够的食物保持健康。


With today’s population of 7.3 billion expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, food demand will increase accordingly.

今天的73亿人口预计到2030年将变为85亿，到2050年将变为97亿，食物需求也将相应增长。


Along with more mouths to feed, stresses on food supplies will include conflicts, economic volatility, extreme weather events, and climate change.

随着有更多的肚子需要填饱，食物供给的压力将来自冲突、经济动荡、极端天气事件、气候变化等。


Increases in agricultural productivity, owing to improvements in seeds, new fertilizers and pesticides, improved credit access, and technological breakthroughs, have been a key driver in reducing hunger.

拜种子改良、新化肥和杀虫剂、信用渠道畅通化以及技术突破所赐，农业生产率获得了极大的提高，并成为减少饥饿的主要推动力量。


Between 1930 and 2000, agricultural output in the United States quadrupled, with productivity growth outstripping that of manufacturing.

从1930年到2000年，美国农业产出翻了两番，农业生产率增长比制造业更快。


Developing countries have begun sharing in these gains: responsible for next-to-none of the world’s fertilizer consumption in 1960, by 2000 they used more than industrialized countries.

发展中国家也开始分享这些收益：1960年，它们的化肥消费占比可以忽略不计，到2000年，它们的化肥使用量已经超过了工业化国家。


The World Bank has found that productivity growth in agriculture can be up to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth from other sectors.

世界银行发现，农业生产率增长���减少贫困的作用是其他部门生产率增长的四倍。


So how do we keep up this progress?

那么，我们如何保持这一势头？


Investment in research and development is vital.

研究和开发投资至关重要。


According to research conducted for Copenhagen Consensus, which I direct, investing an extra $88 billion in agricultural R&D over the next 15 years would increase yields by an additional 0.4 percentage points each year, which could save 79 million people from hunger and prevent five million cases of child malnourishment.

据由我领导的哥本哈根共识中心所做的研究，未来十五年在农业研发上增加880亿美元投资每年能够多提高0.4个百分点的产量增长，让7,900万人摆脱贫困，让五百万儿童免于营养不良。


Achieving these targets would be worth nearly $3 trillion in social good, implying an enormous return of $34 for every dollar spent.

实现这些目标相当于实现3万亿美元的社会公益，即每一美元支出带来34美元的巨额回报。


Scientific breakthroughs also play a key role in fighting specific nutritional challenges such as vitamin A deficiency, the leading cause of preventable childhood blindness.

科学突破也在战胜具体的营养挑战方面起着关键作用，比如维生素A缺乏症，它是引起可预防儿童失明的主要原因。


Robert Mwanga was awarded this year’s World Food Prize for inspiring work that resulted in the large-scale replacement of white sweet potato (with scant Vitamin A content) by a vitamin A-rich alternative in the diets of Uganda’s rural poor.

罗伯特·姆万加（Robert Mwanga）因为在用富含维生素A的品种大量替换乌干达农村穷人日常实用的甘白薯（维生素A含量很低）方面所取得的鼓舞人心的工作而被授予世界粮食奖。


Another way to increase agricultural productivity is through labor.

另一个增加农业生产率的方法是通过劳动力。


When Copenhagen Consensus researchers examined responses to global warming in Bangladesh, they found that increasing agricultural labor productivity “is the only way to increase the resilience of Bangladesh to climate change and to meet long-term development goals.”

哥本哈根共识中心研究者在考察孟加拉国应对全球变暖的方法时发现，增加农业劳动力生产率“是加强孟加拉国面对气候变化的恢复力、实现长期发展目标的唯一方法。


Investing around $9,000 per worker over two decades could boost agricultural productivity by 10%.

”在二十年的时间里对每位工人投资大约9,000美元能够让农业生产率提高10 % 。


Bangladesh is an instructive case, because it is susceptible to flooding and the effects of climate change, and its agricultural productivity lags behind other developing and middle-income countries.

孟加拉国的例子很有说明意义，因为它极易受到洪水和气候变化影响，而其农业生产率也落后于其他发展中和中等收入国家。


Unsurprisingly, the Bangladeshi prime minister’s office is striving to lead in global innovation, sustaining an agriculture innovation lab that shares best practices and ideas.

毫不奇怪，孟加拉国总理办公室正致力于引领全球创新，建立了一座共享最佳实践和思想的农业创新实验室。


Copenhagen Consensus has worked with the world’s largest NGO, BRAC, to find out the policy wishes of people living in rural Bangladesh, including the “ultra-poor” with whom BRAC works closely.

哥本哈根共识中心与全球最大的非政府组织BRAC合作了解孟加拉国农村地区人口 — — 包括BRAC共组人员与之近距离共事的“极端贫困”人口 — — 想要什么政策。


These laborers, housewives, and others, some of whom live on the equivalent of $0.60-0.70 or less a day, are seldom given a place at the table to discuss policy.

这些劳动者、家庭主妇和其他人员每天的生活费不超过0.6—0.7美元，他们的声音很少在政策讨论拥有一席之地。


Across nine rural forums in far-flung parts of the country, the participants overwhelmingly spoke with one voice, calling for the same policy priority: increased agricultural productivity.

在孟加拉国偏远地区的九个论坛上，参与者一边倒地发出一个声音，提出了同一个政策重点要求：提高农业生产率。


“Everyone knows Rangpur has a Monga problem,” said a local from Chandpara in the Rangpur division, using the Bengali term for the annual cyclical phenomenon of seasonal hunger.

“众所周知，朗布尔（Rangpur）地区存在孟加（monga）问题 ” ， 朗布尔省钱德帕拉（Chandpara）的一位当地人如是说 ， “ 孟加”是孟加拉语，指年复一年发生的季节性饥饿现象。


“We cannot feed our people two times a day – we need to increase our agricultural productivity.”

“我们的人一天吃不上两顿饭 — — 我们需要提高农业生产率。 ”


A Mukimabad villager had the same vision for Bangladesh: “We need crops and seeds which are not vulnerable to salinity and flood so that we do not have to die from food shortages.”

一位木吉玛巴德（Mukimabad）村民持有同样观点 ： “ 我们需要抗盐碱和洪水的庄稼和种子，这样我们才不会死于食物短缺。 ”


Humanity’s fight against hunger can be won.

人类可以打赢与饥饿的战争。


Great progress has been made, but the world needs more agricultural R&D and higher productivity.

人类已经取得了巨大的进步，但世界需要更多农业研发和更高的生产率。


As a rural villager from Deukhola, near the Brahmaputra River in remote northern Bangladesh, starkly put it: “Our survival depends on it.”

孟加拉国北部偏远地区布拉马普特拉河附近的德克霍拉（Deukhola）的一位农民尖锐地指出 ， “ 我们的生存就系于此。


We would do well to listen.

”聆听能让我们做得更好。


An Arab Marshall Plan

阿拉伯马歇尔计划


OXFORD – The wave of revolts that swept across the Arab world two years ago were fueled by demands for freedom, bread, and social justice.

牛津—两年前席卷阿拉伯世界的革命风潮的推动力来自自由、面包和社会公正的要求。


But, although the revolutions toppled dictators and transformed societies, these core objectives remain as distant as ever.

但是，尽管革命颠覆了独裁者、改变了社会，但这些核心目标扔像从前一样遥远。


In fact, the economic challenges facing the Arab Spring countries have become even more pressing, weighing heavily on these countries’ political prospects.

事实上，阿拉伯之春国家面临的经济挑战甚至变得更加紧迫了，严重地影响着这些国家的政治前景。


Unemployment has nearly doubled in Tunisia and Egypt, and foreign direct investment has dried up across the Arab world.

突尼斯和埃及的失业率几近翻番，整个阿拉伯世界的外国直接投资几乎枯竭。


Tourism revenues, while resilient, are declining, and fiscal challenges remain considerable.

旅游收入随虽然坚挺，但也在下降，财政挑战也依然严峻。


But the economic urgency is not reflected in the policy response, which has been painfully slow or non-existent.

但经济紧迫性并未反映在缓慢（如果不是没有的话）的政策反应中。


For example, Egypt’s fiscal deficit will exceed 11% of GDP this year.

比如，埃及今年的财政赤字将超过GDP的11 % 。


But the country’s leaders have been stalling on the terms of a much-needed International Monetary Fund loan.

但该国领导人还在急需的IMF贷款条件上扯皮。


The government’s reduction of fuel subsidies last year was not followed by additional reforms, and the required tax increase was delayed soon after President Mohamed Morsi announced it.

政府在去年削减了燃料补贴，但并未增加进一步的改革，总统穆尔西在宣布实施必要的增税后马上把这一措施推迟了。


Almost all political stakeholders in Egypt, as in the other Arab countries in transition, recognize the need for economic reform.

埃及几乎所有的政治相关利益者（其他阿拉伯过渡国家也一样）都知道经济改革的必要性。


But neither citizens nor policymakers appear willing to bear its social and political costs.

但人民和决策者都不希望承担改革的社会和政治成本。


In a charged and uncertain political climate, in which new crises erupt on a daily basis, it is unsurprising that economic reform has been postponed repeatedly.

在敏感而不确定的政治气候下 — — 几乎天天爆发新危机 — — 经济改革一再中止并不令人奇怪。


Politicians know that macroeconomic stabilization and social cohesion can be irreconcilable in the short run.

政客们明白，宏观经济稳定和社会团结在短期是不可调和的。


Slashing food and energy subsidies in order to reduce fiscal strain is unlikely to win favor in a country like Egypt, where 40% of per capita income is allocated to food.

削减食品和能源补贴以降低财政负担不可能让你在埃及赢得支持，因为埃及人均收入的四成用于食品。


Politics is thus constraining efforts to strengthen public finances.

因此，政治成了加强财政健康的约束。


At the same time, narrow IMF prescriptions threaten to exacerbate political instability, with citizens no longer afraid to take to the streets to demonstrate their dissatisfaction.

与此同时，狭隘的IMF药方有放大政治动荡的可能，人民已不再惮于走上街头表达自己的不满。


The current impasse on economic reform highlights a larger point: subsidy and tax regimes cannot be reformed without first redefining the underlying social contract, which has long exchanged welfare distribution for political acquiescence.

近期的经济改革僵局凸显出一个更大的问题：欲改革补贴和税收制度，必先重新规定社会契约。 长期以来，社会契约的内容是用财富分配换取政治顺从。


But such a move is far too risky for an individual politician, or even a single country, at a time of economic uncertainty and high unemployment.

但是，在经济不确定性和失业高企的时期，这样一场运动对政治家个人甚至个别国家来说风险太大。


In order to create the political space needed for economic reform, Arab leaders must underwrite a regional growth pact – a Marshall Plan of sorts – that would facilitate major new investments aimed at reviving economic activity.

为了创造经济改革所需要的政治空间，阿拉伯领导人必须抛出地区增长契约 — — 类似于马歇尔计划 — — 以刺激旨在重振经济活动的投资。


It is much easier to reform subsidy programs when the economy is expanding.

一旦经济开始扩张，改革补贴计划就会容易得多。


Moreover, building competitive markets is essential to ensuring sustainable GDP growth.

此外，建设竞争市场是确保可持续GDP增长的关键。


To this end, regional trade barriers, which are more pervasive in the Arab world than even in Sub-Saharan Africa, must be dismantled.

在这方面，地区贸易壁垒 — — 阿拉伯世界的这个问题甚至比撒哈拉以南非洲还要普遍 — — 必须打破。


By agreeing to the pact, Arab countries would commit to reforming their subsidy systems and to reducing restrictions on cross-border economic exchange.

通过同意这一契约，阿拉伯国家将能致力于改革补贴制度、减少跨国经济往来限制。


The regional dimension of prosperity has long been ignored in the Arab world.

繁荣的地区维度在阿拉伯世界长期受到忽视。


But weak regional linkages limit small firms’ growth potential, forcing them to depend on state patronage.

但微弱的地区联系局限了小企业的增长潜力，迫使它们依赖国家支持。


Although Arab leaders often cite Turkey as a beacon of hope, they rarely acknowledge that the country’s recent transformation from the “sick man of Europe” to one of the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets would not have been possible had it not pursued regional synergies.

尽管阿拉伯领导人经常把土耳其当做希望的灯塔，但他们很少承认，如果不追求地区协同效应，土耳其当前从“欧洲病夫”向世界增长最快的新兴市场的转型根本不可能实现。


Such linkages are particularly important for Egypt and Tunisia, which will struggle to reduce unemployment unless Libya’s labor market – which has historically absorbed migrants from its North African neighbors – is reopened.

这一联系对埃及和突尼斯尤其重要，除非利比亚劳动力市场重新开放 — — 传统上，利比亚吸收着来自北非诸邻国的移民 — — 否则埃及和突尼斯很难降低失业率。


And, while Tunisia’s situation seems to be the most promising, a crippling investment shortfall is threatening to derail reform efforts there.

而尽管突尼斯的状况似乎最为乐观，但要命的投资短缺有可能使改革夭折。


With Europe mired in crisis, capital flows from Tunisia’s resource-rich Arab neighbors are its best hope.

在欧洲饱受危机折磨的前提下，来自资源丰富的阿拉伯邻国的资本流入是突尼斯最大的希望。


Furthermore, Arab countries must ratchet up development spending.

除此之外，阿拉伯国家必须逐渐增加发展支出。


Given that existing development banks in the region have largely failed to act as vehicles of coordination and commitment, a new institution – resembling the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – would have to be established to oversee a regional aid push and underwrite the costs of economic transition.

该地区现有开发银行作为协调和委托实体大体上可以说是失败的，因此需要建立模仿欧洲复兴开发银行的新机构来管理地区援助，比如承销经济转型的成本。


New investment vehicles, such as sovereign wealth funds and Islamic finance, can contribute financing to credit-starved firms.

新投资实体，比如主权财富基金和伊斯兰金融也可以帮助信用饥渴的企业融资。


At the same time, Arab countries must streamline current aid efforts.

与此同时，阿拉伯国家必须让当前援助措施合理化。


For too long, Arab governments have simply thrown money at problems, with the rich Gulf countries effectively subsidizing their troubled neighbors’ public services.

长期以来，阿拉伯国家政府总是把钱浪费在问题上，富有的波斯湾国家实际上补贴着它们陷入麻烦的邻国的公共服务。


Over the last two years, Saudi Arabia has provided more than $3 billion to Yemen.

过去两年来，沙特向也门提供了30多亿美元。


Qatar has provided  $5 billion to Egypt since 2011, with a promise of $3 billion more.

卡塔尔自2011年以来向埃及提供了50亿美元，并承诺还将提供30亿美元。


And the United Arab Emirates recently pledged $2.5 billion to Bahrain.

阿联酋最近也承诺向巴林提供25亿美元。


But unconditional aid only delays reforms, because it weakens budget constraints, which reduces pressure on policymakers and creates moral hazard.

但无条件的援助只能拖延干戈，因为这削弱了预算约束，从而减轻了决策者的压力，创造了道德风险。


The Arab Spring has exposed fault lines that run not just through individual countries, but also through the entire region.

阿拉伯之春暴露了不仅存在于个体国家之间、也存在于整个地区的断层线。


This calls for redefining relationships not only between citizens and states, but also among Arab countries.

这不但需要重新定义人民和国家间关系，也需要重新定义阿拉伯国家之间的关系。


Above all, it is no longer prudent to divide Arab countries between donors and recipients, or between resource-rich and resource-poor countries.

最重要的是，将阿拉伯国家分为赞助过和受赞助国或资源富裕国和资源贫乏国已不再合适。


It is in the interest of the entire region – including those countries that do not seem to face an imminent threat of revolt – to contribute to their neighbors’ economic revival and facilitate their political transitions.

协助邻国经济复兴、刺激政治过渡是整个地区的利益所在 — — 包括并不面临迫切革命威胁的国家。


The Ahistorical Federal Reserve

反历史的美联储


BERKELEY – Economic developments over the past 20 years have taught – or ought to have taught – the US Federal Reserve four lessons.

伯克利—过去20年的经济发展教给 — — 或者应该教给 — — 美联储四个教训。


Yet the Fed’s current policy posture raises the question of whether it has internalized any of them.

但美联储当前的政策姿态让人们质疑他们是否消化了其中任何一个。


The first lesson is that, at least as long as the current interest-rate configuration is sustained, the proper inflation target for the Fed should be 4% per year, rather than 2%.

第一个教训是，至少在当前利率保持调整态势的情况下，美联储合理的目标通胀应该是每年4 % ， 而不是2 % 。


A higher target is essential in order to have enough room to make the cuts in short-term safe nominal interest rates of five percentage points or more that are usually called for to cushion the effects of a recession when it hits the economy.

为了在衰退影响到经济时有足够的空间削减通常所需要的短期安全名义利率五个或更多百分点，提高通胀目标至关重要。


The Fed protests that to change its inflation target even once would erode the credibility of its commitment to ensuring price stability.

美联储反对说，改变通胀目标，哪怕一次，会有损于其确保物价稳定的承诺的信誉。


But the Fed can pay now or it can pay later.

但美联储可以现在付出代价，也可以随后付出代价。


After all, what good is credibility today when it means sticking tenaciously to a policy that deprives you of the ability to do your job properly tomorrow?

毕竟，如果今天的信誉意味着坚持限制你明天游刃有余地完成任务的能力的政策，还有什么有点可言？


The second lesson is that the two slope coefficients in the algebraic equation that is the Phillips curve – the link between expected inflation and current inflation, and the responsiveness of future inflation to current unemployment – are both much smaller than they were back in the 1970s or even in the 1980s.

第二个教训是菲利普斯曲线代数公式中的两个斜率都较20世纪70年代甚至80年代出现了大幅下降。 菲利普斯曲线描述预期通胀和当前通胀之间的关系。


Then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan recognized this in the 1990s.

20世纪90年代，时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）发现了这一现象。


He rightly judged that pushing for faster growth and lower unemployment was not taking excessive risks, but rather harvesting low-hanging fruit.

他正确地判断，推动加快增长和降低失业不会带来过度风险，反而是唾手可得的果实。


The current Fed appears to have a different view.

现任美联储似乎持有不同观点。


The third lesson is that yield-curve inversion in the bond market is not just a sign that the market thinks that monetary policy is too tight; it is a sign that monetary policy really is too tight.

第三个教训是债券市场收益率曲线反转不仅仅是市场认为货币政策过紧的信号；它就是货币政策过紧的信号。


The people who bid up the prices of long-term US Treasury bills in anticipation of interest-rate cuts when the Fed overshoots and triggers a recession are the same people who are now on tenterhooks wondering when to start cutting back on investment plans because a recession will soon produce overcapacity.

当初认为美联储超调会导致利率下降而竞价抬高长期美国国债的人，与现在因为衰退会迅速导致产能过剩而焦虑不安地考虑何时收回投资计划的人，是同一拨人。


The Fed today has a “habitat theory” about why this time is different – that is, why the preferences of investors for particular maturity lengths imply that a yield-curve inversion would not mean what it has always meant.

今天，美联储有一套“栖息地理论”解释为何这次不一样 — — 即为何投资者对某个久期长度的偏好意味着收益率曲线反转的含义与过去不再相同。


But 2006, just before the financial crisis hit, was supposed to be different, too.

但在2006年，就在金融危机爆发前夕，人们也以为这次不一样了。


(And there were plenty of times before then that were supposed to be different, too.)

（在此之前也有许多次人们认为这次不一样。


History suggests that this time is highly unlikely to be different – and that it will not end well if the Fed continues to believe and behave otherwise.

）历史表明，这次不太可能不一样 — — 如果美联储继续这次会不一样，解决肯定不会好。


The fourth lesson similarly reflects developments extending back further than 20 years.

第四个教训同样反映了可追溯到20多年前的发展趋势。


Back in the 1980s, it was not unreasonable to argue that the next large shock to the US macroeconomy was likely to be inflationary.

20世纪80年代，有充分的理由认为下一场对美国宏观经济的大冲击可能是会引起通胀。


It is much more difficult to reasonably argue that today.

今天做出这样的判断依据不再。


For the past three and a half decades, the principal shocks have not been inflationary, like the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, but rather deflationary, like the US savings and loan crisis in the 1980s and 1990s, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2000 dot-com bust, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the 2007 subprime collapse that began in the US, and the 2010 European debt crash.

在过去三十五年中，主要冲击都没有引起通胀，如1973和1979年石油危机，相反，它们引起了通缩，如20世纪八九十年代的美国储贷银行危机、1997年亚洲金融危机、2000年互联网泡沫破裂、2001年9月11日恐怖袭击、2007年始于美国的次贷危机，以及2010年欧洲债务危机。


Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen told me back in the 1990s that, in her view, conducting the Fed’s internal debate within the framework of interest-rate rules had greatly increased the ease of getting from agreement about the structure and state of the economy to a rough consensus on appropriate policy.

美联储前主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）在20世纪90年代告诉我，在她看来，在美联储内部组织在利率规则框架内的争论大大便利了从关于经济结构和状态的一致实现关于合适政策的粗略共识。


But, at least as I see it, right now the Fed’s process of getting from a realistic view of the economy to an appropriate monetary policy does not seem to be functioning well at all.

但是，至少在我看来，现在美联储从经济的现实观点到合适货币政策的转变过程运行一点都不好。


Perhaps it is time for the Fed to place its internal discussions in a more explicit framework.

也许美联储应该在更加明确的框架中进行内部讨论。


One can imagine, for example, the Fed adopting an “optimal control” method, whereby monetary-policy settings are established by running multiple simulations of a macroeconomic model using different combinations of interest rates and balance-sheet tools to project future inflation and unemployment.

比如，可以想象美联储采取“优化控制”方法，货币政策的制定建立在多重宏观经济模型仿真的基础上。 这些模型采用不同的利率和资产负债表工具组合，预测未来通胀和失业。


The problem for optimal control methods is that the real world is not some closed system where economic relationships never change, or where they change in fully predictable ways.

优化控制方法的问题是真实世界是一个比较封闭的系统，经济关系从不改变，或者以完全可预测的方式改变。


The most effective – and thus the most credible – monetary policy is one that reflects not only the lessons of history, but also a willingness to reconsider long-held assumptions.

最有效 — — 因此也是最可信 — — 的货币政策不但要反映历史教训，也要反映反思长期以来的假设的意愿。


A History Lesson for Koizumi

给小泉的一堂历史课


Once again, protests against Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s annual visit to the Yasukuni shrine are breaking out in China as well as South Korea.

中国和韩国又一次爆发了反对日本首相小泉纯一郎一年一度参拜靖国神社的抗议活动。


Koizumi’s insistence on paying homage to the war dead interred at Yasukuni, where convicted war criminals from World War II are among the buried, has been damaging relations with Japan’s neighbors for years.

小泉坚持拜祭埋葬有二战战犯的靖国神社，多年来一直损害着日本与邻国的关系。


Indeed, Chinese President Hu Jintao continually affirms that he will not hold a summit with a Japanese prime minister who goes to Yasukuni, which most Chinese regard as a glorification of past Japanese aggression and colonialism.

实际上，中国主席胡锦涛一直声称不与参拜靖国神社的日本首相举行首脑会谈。 大部分中国人认为参拜是美化日本过去侵略和殖民历史。


Even some in Japan are becoming critical of Koizumi.

甚至日本一些人也开始对小泉持批评意见。


While the public remains negative about Chinese outbursts against Japan, a recent survey indicates that more than 70% of Japanese view the current state of Japan-China relations as unacceptable.

虽然公众仍旧觉得中国人对日本爆发愤怒不可理喻，但是最近一项调查显示70%多的日本人认为日中关系当前的这种状态不可接受。


More people are not supporting Koizumi’s annual pilgrimage to Yasukuni, with seven former prime ministers jointly demanding that he refrain from the visits.

更多的人不支持小泉每年参拜靖国神社，七位前首相联合要求他放弃参拜。


Yet Koizumi remains defiant.

然而小泉却一意孤行。


Moreover, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzu Abe, the front-runner to succeed him, has openly declared that he will continue to visit the shrine as prime minister.

而且，最有可能接任他的内阁官房长官安倍晋三已经公开宣布他担任首相后将继续参拜靖国神社。


Foreign Minister Taro Aso, another possible successor to Koizumi, has called for the Japanese Emperor to pray at Yasukuni.

另一个可能接替小泉的人，外相麻生太郎呼吁日本天皇去参拜靖国神社。


So pessimism appears to be settling in, and the deadlock over Yasukuni appears to be deepening.

尽管局势似乎如此悲观，靖国神社僵局似乎正在加深。


But the past can bring us more than just troubles of this kind.

但是历史不仅仅能够给我们带来现在这种困境。


Even on the issue of Yasukuni, there are positive lessons to be learned.

甚至是在靖国神社问题上，也有积极的经验可供我们学习。


Consider Yasuhiro Nakasone, Koizumi’s predecessor in the 1980’s.

想一想小泉20世纪80年代的前辈中曾根康弘首相吧。


Both are master politicians who remained popular and served long terms in office.

两人都是精明的政治家，一直很受欢迎，执政时间也很长。


Both are conservative and nationalistic, advocating the revision of the constitution and an assertive political and military role for Japan abroad.

两人都是保守派，信奉民族主义，鼓吹修改宪法和日本在海外发挥更大的政治和军事作用。


Finally, both are pro-American, with Nakasone declaring Japan to be America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in East Asia and Koizumi sending troops to Iraq in support of the United States-led war effort.

最后，两人都亲美，中曾根康弘宣布日本是美国在东亚“不沉的航空母舰 ” ， 小泉则向伊拉克派兵支持美国为首的战争行动。


But a crucial difference between Nakasone and Koizumi is often overlooked: their handling of the Yasukuni controversy and relations with China.

但是中曾与小泉之间一个重要的差别却常常被忽视,那就是他们处理靖国神社争议和对中关系的方法。


Nakasone broke the taboo by being the first prime minister to worship at the Yasukuni shrine in his official capacity on August 15, 1985, the fortieth anniversary of the end of World War II.

1985年8月15日、第二次世界大战结束40周年纪念日那天，中曾根康弘打破禁忌成为了第一位在职期间参拜靖国神社的首相。


The decision triggered a severe response from China, where students held demonstrations against his visit.

这个决定激起了中国强烈的反应，学生对他的参拜举行示威游行。


Bilateral relations were frozen.

双边关系被冻结。


But, instead of capitalizing on domestic resentment over China’s criticisms, Nakasone decided not to visit Yasukuni again.

但是，中曾根康弘没有利用国内对中国批评的不满，而是决定不再参拜靖国神社。


He chose to mend relations with China by focusing on the positive aspects of bilateral ties.

他选择修复与中国的关系，重点关注双边联系中积极的方面。


In 1986, Nakasone went to Beijing at the personal invitation of Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Yaobang and laid the cornerstone for a Sino-Japanese Youth Exchange Center, promising to forge future friendships with China.

1986年，中曾根康弘应中共总书记胡耀邦的个人邀请访问北京，参加了中日青年交流中心的奠基活动，承诺培育与中国面向未来的友好关系。


This genuine embrace of reconciliation provided much-needed support to Chinese leaders, who were eager to control anti-Japanese sentiments.

这种真诚的拥抱和解为中国领导人提供了急需的支持，他们正急于控制国内的反日情绪。


Hu praised Nakasone’s courage and warned Chinese youth publicly that if they “think merely of the well-being of their own country… they are not sober-minded patriots.”

胡耀邦赞扬了中曾根康弘的勇气并公开警告中国年轻人如果他们“只考虑自己国家的利益，就不是头脑冷静的爱国者。 ”


Nakasone emerged from the crisis and was recognized as a capable statesman in managing Japan’s diplomacy with China.

中曾根康弘成功地摆脱了这场危机，作为一位政治家，被认为善于处理日本与中国的外交关系。


There was no accusation that Nakasone was “selling out” to Beijing.

没有人指责中曾为了北京而“出卖国家 ” 。


Nor were his conservative, nationalist, and pro-American credentials damaged.

他的保守主义、民族主义和亲美倾向的政治形象也没有受到损害。


This episode suggests that Koizumi’s hardline position isn’t the only option.

这段插曲表明小泉的强硬立场并不是唯一的选择。


A Japanese prime minister can be strong without exploiting domestic resentment against the country’s neighbors, and conservative, patriotic, and pro-American while forging a healthy working relationship with China.

日本首相可以是强势首相而不必利用国内对邻国的不满情绪；可以在培育正常运转的对中关系的同时保持保守、爱国和亲美的立场。


Indeed, the cessation of Yasukuni visits would likely open the door to the long-overdue Sino-Japanese summit, which in turn might strengthen moderate voices in China seeking a future-oriented relationship with Japan.

实际上，停止参拜靖国神社很可能将开启搁置已久的中日政府首脑会议的大门，这将加强中国温和派的声音，他们寻求发展面向未来的中日关系。


Unfortunately, Koizumi and his allies are not prepared to move forward on the Yasukuni issue.

不幸的是，小泉和他们的盟友不准备在靖国神社问题上更进一步。


As Foreign Minister Aso recently put it: “The more China voices [opposition], the more one feels like going there.

正如外相麻生太郎最近指出的那样 ： “ 中国反对的声音越强，日本人越觉得应该去参拜。


It’s just like when you’re told ‘Don't smoke cigarettes,’ it actually makes you want to smoke.”

这就好像当有人告诉你‘不要抽烟’时，实际上却让你更想抽烟。 ”


No one expects the current Japanese and Chinese leaders to embrace, as Nakasone and Hu did two decades ago, but it is a sad state of affairs when the leaders of neighboring giants pretend not to see each other at international forums.

没有人期望日本和中国现在的领导人如中曾根康弘和胡耀邦二十年前那样互相拥抱，但是相邻两个大国的领导人在国际会议上假装互相没看见这种情形令人悲哀。


If Nakasone, who now urges Koizumi to stop the Yasukuni pilgrimage, were to respond to Aso, he might simply extend the analogy: it is not in Japan’s national interest to continue to inhale Koizumi’s second-hand smoke.

如果现在规劝小泉根康弘停止参拜靖国神社的中曾来回答麻生太郎，他可以简单地发挥一下这个类比：继续吸小泉的二手烟不符合日本的国家利益。


Israel versus America versus Iran

以色列、美国和伊朗


TEL AVIV – Israel’s concern about the specter of a nuclear Iran has now degenerated into a crisis of confidence concerning the United States.

特拉维夫—以色列对有核伊朗这一幽灵的担忧不欠已经变成了一场对美国的信心危机。


Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has embarked on a campaign to force President Barack Obama to set a red line that Iran must not cross, lest it risk unleashing an American military response.

总理内塔尼亚胡在一次活动中强迫奥巴马设置一条伊朗不得跨越的红线，否则美国将采取军事干预。


Implicit threats of a unilateral Israeli attack, together with conspicuous meddling in the US presidential election campaign, have compounded Netanyahu’s effort to twist Obama’s arm.

暗示以色列将单方面采取军事袭击以及赤裸裸地干预美国大选，这些举动表明内塔尼亚胡在和奥巴马较劲。


The controversy between the two allies partly reflects their divergent timelines: for Israel, the red line is Iran’s imminent burial deep underground of its uranium-enrichment facilities; for the US, it is the start of a dedicated weapons program.

两大盟友之间的争议部分地反映了它们不同的当务之急：对以色列来说，红线是伊朗马上就要上马的深层地下铀浓缩设施；而对美国来说，最紧迫的问题是专门用于军事目的的核设施。


But, equally important, the dispute underscores their different objectives.

但是，同样重要的是，这一争议体现了它们不同的目标。


For Israel, war with Iran is not about neutralizing an existential threat; it is about reasserting its regional status.

对以色列来说，和伊朗开战并不是为了消灭一个已经存在的威胁，而是为了重建其地区地位。


Israel’s leaders see their country’s standing in the region being seriously threatened by the emergence of a hostile Islamist regime in Egypt; the possibility that a similarly hostile regime will eventually emerge in Syria; the fragility of traditionally friendly Jordan; and the dangerous boost that the regional Islamist awakening has given to Israel’s sworn enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah.

以色列领导人认为该国在中东地区的地位受到了严重威胁：埃及出现了敌对伊斯兰政权而；叙利亚也有可能出现类似的敌对政权；传统友邦约旦摇摇欲坠；以色列不共戴天的仇敌哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党等地区伊斯兰组织也因此大为振奋。


Both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak thus regard an attack on Iran as a major strategic move aimed at the broader Middle East, which implies that they would not discount a military campaign that goes well beyond surgical air strikes.

因此，内塔尼亚胡和国防部长巴拉克均将伊朗视为意在大中东的战略性动作，这是一种暗示：以色列不会惮于发动远超外科手术式空袭规模的军事行动。


Indeed, they probably contemplate land incursions into Iran, and possibly a decisive – and, from their perspective, long overdue – showdown with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

事实上，他们可能已经在考虑从陆上突入伊朗，并（这方面或许已经谋划已久了）对加沙地区的哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党予以决定性打击。


Though determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if doing so requires military action, the US weighs the consequences of a military showdown in very different terms.

美国不会接受伊朗拥有核武器，即使为此采取军事行动也在所不惜。 尽管如此，美国对军事行动后果的评估与以色列大不相同。


A superpower that has earned only frustration in its abortive efforts – whether war or regional diplomacy – in the dysfunctional Middle East, the US faces the Iran crisis in the midst of its epochal strategic shift to Asia and the Pacific.

作为一个超级大国，美国在瘫痪的中东所做的一系列动作都没有取得成功（不管是战争还是地区外交 ） ， 伊朗危机又发生在其欲进行将重点移到亚太地区的划时代的战略大转移的当口。


The fallout from a war in Iran would pin down the US in the Middle East for years to come, undermining its new strategic priorities.

与伊朗开战的不良影响将在多年内对美国的中东地位造成危险，破坏其新的战略要务。


As a result, the US, though certainly better equipped than Israel for a war to ensure that Iran forever abandons its nuclear ambitions, could nonetheless conclude that that objective is simply too costly.

因此，尽管对于让伊朗永久放弃核野心方面，美国显然比以色列有更好的条件发动战争，但美国极有可能认为这一目标实在成本太高。


The recent report by The Iran Project, whose signatories include the former US national security advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, concluded that an American military attack on Iran could only delay its nuclear program for up to four years.

最新的伊朗报告（Iran Project，署名作者包括前美国国家安全顾问斯考克罗夫特和布热津斯基）指出，美国对伊朗的军事打击最多只能将后者的和进程延缓四年。


To guarantee that Iran never acquires a nuclear bomb, the US would need to maintain military pressure on Iran for several years.

为了保证伊朗永远不会有核弹，美国需要在多年内保持对伊朗的军事压力。


And, if forced to impose regime change as the ultimate solution to the dilemma, the report assumes that this would require military occupation, which would entail a commitment of resources and personnel greater than what the US invested in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.

伊��报告说，如果最终必须靠推翻政权来解决这一难题，那么就需要采取军事占领，而军事占领伊朗所需要的资源和人力比伊拉克和阿富汗两场战争的总和还要多。


Moreover, the conventional assumption that the region’s Sunni Arab regimes would give tacit approval to a military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations must be revisited in the wake of the Arab Spring – particularly in the aftermath of the recent, sudden upsurge in anti-American violence throughout the Muslim world.

此外，在阿拉伯之春爆发后，传统智慧 — — 中东地区的逊尼派阿拉伯国家必然会默认对伊朗核设施的军事打击 — — 必须重新评估了，特别是在最近突然爆发的席卷穆斯林世界的反美暴力风潮之后。


The pre-Arab Spring paradigm that framed the Middle East as being divided between “moderates” and “extremists” has become obsolete.

前阿拉伯之春时代的范式 — — 中的你可以分为“温和”和“极端”两大阵营 — — 已是老黄历了。


The Islamist governments that have emerged from the downfall of America’s puppet regimes are no friends of an Iranian nuclear empire.

趁美国傀儡政权倒台而出现的伊斯兰政府并不是伊朗核帝国的盟友。


But, in their struggle to survive, they must channel popular anti-Americanism.

但是，在生存斗争中，它们必须疏导流行的反美主义。


For Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, that imperative meant placating the angry mob that recently attacked the US embassy rather than merely condemning the violence.

对埃及总统穆尔西来说，这一要求意味着必须对最近袭击美国大使馆的暴徒进行安抚，而不仅仅是谴责暴力。


An attack on Iran, especially if it develops into a longer war involving regional proxies, is bound to become the trigger for mass anti-Israel and anti-US hysteria, which might draw the Islamist regimes in the region into a dynamic of escalation.

袭击伊朗，特别是如果这发展为涉及地区代理的长期战争，注定会演变为出发反以和反美狂潮的扳机，将该地区的伊斯兰政权成为燎原之势。


It would be impossible to rule out a regional war.

这样一来，地区战争就不可避免了。


The main problem facing a military operation in Iran is the need to ensure its legitimacy.

对伊朗采取军事行动的一个主要问题是必须保证这么做的合法性。


China and Russia would never allow the US to secure a United Nations mandate for an attack.

中国和俄罗斯绝不会让美国促使联合国通过军事打击的决议。


Moreover, while Iranian provocations that clearly reveal the regime’s intentions to develop a nuclear-weapons capability might help build support for American military action, it is far from certain that Europeans, or others, would rush to join another US-led “coalition of the willing.”

此外，尽管伊朗的挑衅行为明白无误地揭露了其发展核武器的意图，这有助于培养对美国军事行动的支持，但欧洲和其他地区会不会争相加入另一场美国领导的“自愿联盟”还远未可知。


The dire legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan weighs heavily on the Western democracies.

伊拉克和阿富汗战争的可怕结局将对西方民主国家造成重大影响。


The saddest part of the story is Israel’s utter indifference to the need to build international legitimacy for its drive to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

最悲观的部分在于以色列在为阻止以色列核计划的行动营造国际合法性方面具有完全不同的需求。


Netanyahu thinks in bold military terms, not in terms of geopolitical strategy.

内塔尼亚胡认为应该采取断然军事手段，而不是地缘政治战略博弈。


His careless Palestine policy has left Israel with few friends in the international community, let alone in the Arab Middle East.

他的鲁莽巴勒斯坦政策已经让以色列在国际社会中失去了所有朋友，更不用说阿拉伯中东地区的友邦了。


Indeed, many regard Netanyahu’s Iran obsession as nothing more than a successful ploy to divert attention from the Palestinian issue.

事实上，许多人认为，内塔尼亚胡在伊朗问题上纠缠不休无非是成功将注意力从巴勒斯坦问题上转移的伎俩。


Only a generous, bold peace initiative that would genuinely revive the two-state solution, accompanied by a freeze on construction and enlargement of West Bank settlements, would help to recover the good will of the Palestinians and their brethren throughout the Arab world.

只有真正可以修补两国关系的宽宏、果断的和平计划，并辅之以停止约旦河西岸定居点的建设和扩展，才能够重新赢得巴勒斯坦人民及其阿拉伯世界同胞的好感。


And only that outcome can secure the international goodwill that both Israel and the US will need for a showdown with Iran.

而只有赢得了阿拉伯世界的好感，才能保证国际社会肯定以色列和美国遏制伊朗的意图。


A Human Rights Crime In Gaza

加沙的人权犯罪


Atlanta -- The world is witnessing a terrible human rights crime in Gaza, where a million and a half human beings are being imprisoned with almost no access to the outside world by sea, air, or land. An entire population is being brutally punished.

亚特兰大-世界正在见证着发生在加沙的一场严重的人道犯罪，在那里有大约150万人被囚禁在几乎与世界断绝联系的地方，无论是从海上、空中或者陆路都很难进入这个地方。 里面所有的人都在承受着残酷的惩罚。


This gross mistreatment of the Palestinians in Gaza was escalated dramatically by Israel, with United States backing, after political candidates representing Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Authority parliament in 2006. The election was unanimously judged to be honest and fair by all international observers.

在2006年代表哈马斯的政治候选人赢得巴勒斯坦议会的大多数席位后，以色列在美国的支持下对加沙的巴勒斯坦人这种不加区分的虐待更加变本加厉了，尽管这次选举被所有的国际观察员一致认为是诚实和公正的。


Israel and the US refused to accept the right of Palestinians to form a unity government with Hamas and Fatah and now, after internal strife, Hamas alone controls Gaza.  Forty-one of the 43 victorious Hamas candidates who lived in the West Bank are now imprisoned by Israel, plus an additional ten who assumed positions in the short-lived coalition cabinet.

以色列和美国拒绝接受巴勒斯坦人组成哈马斯和法塔赫的联合政府的权利；而现在，在一场内战后，哈马斯独自控制了加沙。 在生活在西岸的43个获胜的哈马斯候选人中有41个现在被以色列监禁着，此外以色列还监禁了10名曾在短命的联合政府中任职的哈马斯派别的人。


Regardless of one’s choice in the partisan struggle between Fatah and Hamas within occupied Palestine, we must remember that economic sanctions and restrictions in delivering water, food, electricity, and fuel are causing extreme hardship among the innocent people in Gaza, about one million of whom are refugees.

不管对巴勒斯坦被占领土上法塔赫与哈马斯之间的党派斗争支持哪一方，我们必须记住的是经济制裁以及限制供应水、食品、电力和燃料正在给生活在加沙的无辜的民众的生活造成极度的困难，其中有大约100万人是难民。


Israeli bombs and missiles periodically strike the encapsulated area, causing high casualties among both militants and innocent women and children.

以色列对这个被围困的地区不时的轰炸以及发射的火箭弹给那里的武装人员和无辜的妇女儿童都造成了巨大的伤亡。


Prior to the highly publicized killing of a woman and her four little children last week, this pattern was illustrated by a previous report from B’Tselem, the leading Israeli human rights organization: 106 Palestinians were killed between February 27 and March 3. Fifty-four of them were civilians who didn't take part in the fighting, and 25 were under 18 years of age.

在上周发生的一名妇女和她的四个孩子被炸死的事件被广为曝光前，这样的事情实际上之前已经被B’Tselem（被占领土人权状况以色列信息中心）的一份报告描述过了：在2月27日至3月3日期间，有106位巴勒斯坦人被杀害，其中54人是从未参加过任何武装斗争的平民，25人未满18岁。


On a recent trip through the Middle East, I attempted to gain a better understanding of the crisis.

在我最近对中东地区的穿梭访问中，我试图对这场危机有更好的理解。


One of my visits was to Sderot, a community of about 20,000 in southern Israel that is frequently struck by rudimentary rockets fired from nearby Gaza.

其间我访问了斯德罗社区，这是一个位于以色列南部、大约有20000人口的社区，经常遭到来自临近的加沙的那些劣质火箭弹的袭击。


I condemned these attacks as abominable and an act of terrorism, since most of the thirteen victims during the past seven years have been non-combatants.

我谴责这些袭击为可恶和恐怖行为，因为过去七年间的13位牺牲者大多数是非武装人员。


Subsequently, I met with leaders of Hamas, both a delegation from Gaza and the top officials in Damascus, Syria.

随后我会晤了哈马斯的领导人，有来自加沙的代表团以及来自叙利亚大马士革的高级官员。


I made the same condemnation to them, and urged that they declare a unilateral ceasefire or orchestrate with Israel a mutual agreement to terminate all military action in and around Gaza for an extended period.

我再次谴责了他们的袭击行为，并且敦促他们宣布单边停火或者与以色列共同达成协议在相当长的一段时间内停止加沙内外的所有军事行动。


They responded that such previous action by them had not been reciprocated, and they reminded me that Hamas had previously insisted on a ceasefire throughout Palestine including both Gaza and the West Bank, which Israel had refused.

他们回答说他们以前曾经采取过这样的行动，但是没有得到响应。 他们还提醒我说哈马斯此前曾坚持在包括加沙和西岸的整个巴勒斯坦地区实现停火，但是被以色列拒绝了。


Hamas then made a public proposal of a mutual ceasefire restricted to Gaza, which the Israelis considered and also rejected.

后来哈马斯公开提出双方只在加沙地区实现停火，对此以色列表示愿意考虑，但最后还是拒绝了。


There are fervent arguments heard on both sides concerning blame for a lack of peace in the Holy Land.

双方内部对于无法在圣地实现和平都充满着激烈的争论。


Israel has occupied and colonized the Palestinian West Bank, which is approximately one-fourth (28.5%) the size of the nation of Israel as recognized by the international community.

以色列已经占领并且殖民化了巴勒斯坦的西岸地区，其面积大约相当于以色列被国际社会认可的国土面积的四分之一（28.5 % ） 。


Some Israeli religious factions claim a right to the land on both sides of the Jordan River, and others aver that their 205 settlements with some 500,000 people are necessary for “security.”

一些以色列的宗教派别宣称以色列对约旦河两岸的土地都拥有权利，还有一些人坚称他们居住着大约50万人口的205个定居点需要“安全 ” 。


All Arab nations have agreed to full recognition of Israel if it will comply with key United Nations resolutions.

所有的阿拉伯国家都同意如果以色列愿意遵守主要的联合国决议，它们就将完全承认以色列。


Hamas has agreed to accept any negotiated peace settlement between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, provided it is approved in a referendum among the Palestinian people.

哈马斯已经同意接受巴勒斯坦民族权利机构主席阿巴斯与以色列总理奥尔默特之间达成的任何和平协议，只要它能够被巴勒斯坦全民公决通过。


This holds promise of progress, but despite the brief fanfare and positive statements at the peace conference last November in Annapolis, Maryland, a retrogression has occurred in the process.

这让我们看到了取得进展的希望，但是尽管去年11月份在马里兰州的安那波利斯和平会议上发表了令人鼓舞宣言，和平进程还是出现了倒退。


Nine thousand new Israeli settlement housing units have been announced in Palestine, the number of roadblocks within the West bank has increased, and the stranglehold on Gaza has been tightened.

以色列宣布将在巴勒斯坦建设9000套新的居住单元，设在西岸地区的路障数量还在增加，而对加沙的压制则更紧了。


It is one thing for other leaders to defer to the US on the crucial peace negotiations, but the world must not stand idle while innocent people are treated cruelly.

其他国家的领导人遵从美国在至关重要的和平谈��上的地位是一回事，但是另一方面当无辜的民众受到残酷的虐待时世界绝不能袖手旁观。


It is time for strong voices in Europe, the US, Israel, and elsewhere to speak out and condemn this human rights tragedy among the Palestinian people.

现在是欧洲、美国、以色列和其他地区发出强烈的声音，齐声谴责发生在巴勒斯坦人民身上的这场人权悲剧的时候了。


A Hundred Years of Superconductivity

超导百年


CHICAGO – The world’s first “quantum” computer – a machine that harnesses the magic of quantum phenomena to perform memory and processing tasks incredibly faster than today’s silicon-based computer chips – was recently sold by D-Wave Systems of Canada to Lockheed-Martin.

发自芝加哥 — — 世界首台“量子”计算机 — — 一台利用量子现象的魔力来构成记忆体且任务执行速度远远高于当前使用的硅芯片的机器 — — 最近由加拿大的D-Wave系统公司出售给洛克希德-马丁公司。


And, while some question whether the machine is truly a quantum computer, its designers have published articles in peer-reviewed journals demonstrating that the basic elements of this novel computer are indeed superconducting quantum bits.

与此同时，当人们开始质疑这台量子计算机的真伪时，其设计者在权威专业杂志上发表文章，阐述了构成这台崭新计算机的基本元素其实就是超导的量子位。


This spring marked the 100th anniversary of the discovery of superconductivity – the ability of materials to carry electrical current with no loss.

此举也成为了超导现象100周年纪念的标志性事件。 所谓超导，就是物质携带电流却不造成损失的能力。


Currents set up in superconducting wires can exist for years without any measurable decay.

超导线中的电流可以存在数年都不出现可测量的衰减。


Because of this property, superconductors have unique features that can be exploited in many ways.

这种特性使得超导体拥有了可供多方面利用的独有特征。


They can carry enormous amounts of current, making them ideal for urban power grids. And, when wound into coils, they can produce extremely strong magnetic fields.

它们可以携带巨量电流，非常适用于城市电网，而被卷成线圈时又能制造出极其强大的磁场。


Such superconducting magnets have been applied in a variety of technologies.

这些超导磁体被应用到一系列技术当中。


The best-known examples are the magnets that drive the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines found in most hospitals.

最广为人知的就是驱动医院磁共振成像系统（MRI）的磁体。


Perhaps the most exotic are the huge magnets used to accelerate particles in the Large Hadron Collider, which seeks to discover the fundamental principles of matter.

最鲜为人知的或许是欧洲大型强子对撞机中用于加速粒子的巨型磁体，而该设备则被利用来探索物质的基本原理。


Despite their great promise, however, superconductors have limits, the primary one being that most superconduct at very low temperatures – indeed, near absolute zero (-273 ºC).

虽然拥有巨大的前景，但超导体也存在自身的限制，其中最主要的一点就是大多数超导现象只有在极低温环境下才能实现 — — 事实上就是接近绝对零度 （ - 273摄氏度 ） 。


Such temperatures can be achieved only through liquid-helium cooling.

而这种温度只能通过液氦冷却来实现。


Thus, Swiss researchers caused excitement in 1986 by announcing the discovery of superconductivity in an oxide of copper at twice the temperature of the previous record holder.

因此当瑞士研究人员在1986年宣布发现了一种可以在比前纪录保持者高一倍的温度下实现超导的铜氧化物时，全世界都为之一振。


Shortly thereafter, researchers in the United States found a related material that superconducts above the temperature at which air liquefies.

不久之后美国研究人员也发现了一种可以在高于气体液化温度的情况下实现超导的相关物质。


As Time magazine proclaimed in May 1987, with the discovery of these so-called “cuprates,” the superconducting revolution had begun.

正如《时代》杂志在1987年5月正式宣布的那样，随着这类名为“高温超导铜氧化物”的发现，我们已经迎来了超导的革命。


Alas, the revolution soon bogged down.

无奈这场革命却很快陷入了低潮。


Cuprates are notoriously difficult materials to work with, because they are very brittle.

这类铜化合物非常难以使用，因为它们极为易碎。


This is exacerbated by their strong anisotropy – the materials have a quasi-two-dimensional structure consisting of a weakly coupled stack of conducting sheets. As such, they are a challenge for industry, though applications are beginning to appear.

更糟糕的则是它们本身强烈的各向异性 — — 这种材料拥有一个由大量互相弱连结的导电薄层所组成的准二维结构，因此虽然不断得到应用，对工业界来说也极富技术难度。


Since the cuprates first appeared, a variety of other “high temperature” superconductors have been discovered – one is a simple compound of magnesium and boron, and another involves a mixture of iron and arsenic.

在高温超导铜氧化物发现之后，科学界也发现了一系列其他类型的“高温”超导体 — — 其中一种是镁和硼的简单化合物，另一种则是铁和砷的混合物。


Although none of them superconduct at temperatures as high as liquid air, they may ultimately be better materials with which to work.

虽然这些材料都未能在高于气体液化温度的情况下实现超导，但他们可能会最终成为可供应用的更佳材料。


Given the vast number of combinations of elements that can form compounds, there is a good chance that better superconductors await our discovery.

考虑到不同元素间可以组合出成千上万种化合物，因此更好的超导材料很可能就在不远处。


In the coming years, superconductors are expected to play a growing role in technology.

超导体预计将在未来科技中扮演日渐重要的角色。


Already, “second generation” cuprate wires are being used to make high-capacity cables for electric-power transmission, and lighter-weight generators for wind turbines.

“第二代”高位超导铜氧化物导线已经被用于制造利于电力传输的高能电缆以及风力涡轮的更轻量发电机。


Stronger superconducting magnets are leading to the development of MRIs with more sophisticated diagnostic capabilities.

强超导磁体推动下的MRI技术发展使得医学诊断更加精确。


Superconductors are being used for levitated trains in high-speed rail transport, and as microwave filters for improved signal bandwidth in cellular base stations.

超导体被运用于高速悬浮列车，还可以制成微波过滤器来提高蜂窝电信基站的信号带宽。


The discovery of a new superconductor with enhanced properties could lead to even greater technological innovation.

一个拥有更优秀特性的新超导体的发现可能会带来更重大的技术革新。


This brings us to the intellectual challenge of superconductors.

这是我们所面临的关于超导体智力挑战。


It took 46 years from the discovery of superconductivity to the 1957 Bardeen, Cooper, and Schrieffer (BCS) theory of how the phenomenon occurs.

从发现超导现象到1957年巴丁-库珀-施里弗（BCS）关于该现象如何产生的理论发表足足用了46年。


Along the way, a number of famous physicists tried and failed to get the answer – Albert Einstein, Werner Heisenberg, and Richard Feynman being notable examples.

沿着这条道路，一大批著名物理学家前赴后继地追寻这个答案 — — 爱因斯坦，沃纳·海森堡和理查德·费曼则是他们的杰出代表。


Discovering the solution required the development of advanced theoretical techniques.

解开这个难题需要依靠先进理论工具的发展。


What had been difficult to figure out was how to get electrons to superconduct.

其中较为困难的则是如何使电子显示超导性。


The basic discovery of BCS was that if the electrons pair up, those couples could indeed superconduct.

巴丁-库珀-施里弗理论的基本发现则是如果电子能两两配对，那么这些电子对就能实现超导。


Fortunately, the mechanism for such coupling was known.

幸运的是，这种配对的机制已经被发现了。


Although electrons are negatively charged, and therefore repel one another, the positive ions that they leave behind when they flow through a metal can mediate an effective attraction between two electrons under restrictive conditions (for example, the metal must be very cold).

虽然电子都是带负电并互相排斥的，但它们穿过金属时所抛弃的正离子可以在某种限制性条件下（比如冷却该金属）成为两个电子互相吸引的有效媒介。


The suspicion, though, is that this is not the case in the new superconductors.

但也有人认为这不会是新超导体的特性。


Cuprates superconduct at much higher temperatures, but, more importantly, they possess some exotic properties: they are formed by doping electrical carriers into a host material that is a magnetic insulator – the last place one would look for a conventional superconductor.

高温超导铜氧化物能在更高的温度下实现超导，但更重要的是它们拥有一种吸引人��特性：它们是由将电载流子掺入基质材料而形成的 — — 该材料是一种磁性绝缘体，也是研究者们最没想到可能实现常规超导体的地方。


And, unlike BCS theory, in which the pairs are isotropic – with identical properties in all directions in space – the pairs in cuprates are strongly anisotropic, resembling a cloverleaf.

跟巴丁-库珀-施里弗理论中电子对都是等方性的（即空间中所有方向都具有同样特性）不同的是，高温超导铜氧化物的电子对是强烈各向异性的，类似一个四面立体交叉的结构。


How can one pair electrons without ions holding them together, thereby enabling higher-temperature superconductors?

如何能在缺少离子的情况下让电子对互相连结在一起，并以此实现高温超导体？


While ideas about this abound, new theoretical breakthroughs most likely will be needed to develop the machinery required to solve such electron-electron theories, perhaps even involving black holes.

当关于这点的理论设想层出不穷之时，必须在解释这类电子-电子理论的体系（甚至包括黑洞）上取得新的理论突破。


Whatever the theory turns out to be, it is certain to revolutionize physics.

但无论这一理论将如何发展，它都注定将催生物理学的革命。


Lies, Damned Lies, and AI

谎言、该死的谎言和人工智能


CAMBRIDGE – Algorithms are as biased as the data they feed on.

剑桥 — — 算法和算法所依赖的数据一样带有偏见。


And all data are biased.

而且一切数据都是带有偏见的。


Even “official” statistics cannot be assumed to stand for objective, eternal “facts.”

即使是“官方”统计数据也不能被认定代表客观永恒的“事实 ” 。


The figures that governments publish represent society as it is now, through the lens of what those assembling the data consider to be relevant and important.

政府发布的数字代表着当前的社会状况，在那些搜集数据的人看来代表着重要性和相关性。


The categories and classifications used to make sense of the data are not neutral.

被用于理解数据的范畴和分类并不是中立的。


Just as we measure what we see, so we tend to see only what we measure.

就像我们只衡量我们所看到的那样，我们往往会对衡量范畴以外的东西视而不见。


As algorithmic decision-making spreads to a wider range of policymaking areas, it is shedding a harsh light on the social biases that once lurked in the shadows of the data we collect.

就像算法决策扩散到更大范围的决策领域一样，它正在刺眼地暴露出曾经藏在我们搜集数据阴影中的社会偏见。


By taking existing structures and processes to their logical extremes, artificial intelligence (AI) is forcing us to confront the kind of society we have created.

通过将现有结构和流程纳入其逻辑极值，人工智能（AI）正迫使我们正视我们所创造的社会。


The problem is not just that computers are designed to think like corporations, as my University of Cambridge colleague Jonnie Penn has argued. It is also that computers think like economists.

问题不仅在于我在剑桥大学的同事詹妮·潘所提出的，设计计算机的初衷是让它像企业一样思考，而是计算机也在模仿经济学家的思考方式。


An AI, after all, is as infallible a version of homo economicus as one can imagine.

毕竟，人工智能是人类想象范围内从不出错的经济人。


It is a rationally calculating, logically consistent, ends-oriented agent capable of achieving its desired outcomes with finite computational resources.

它是一种能够合理计算、逻辑连贯并以目标为中心的代理，能够利用有限的计算资源实现其期望中的局面。


When it comes to “maximizing utility,” they are far more effective than any human.

如果说到“效用最大化 ” ， 它们的有效性超过任何人。


“Utility” is to economics what “phlogiston” once was to chemistry.

“效用”之于经济学就像是曾几何时“燃素”之于化学一般。


Early chemists hypothesized that combustible matter contained a hidden element – phlogiston – that could explain why substances changed form when they burned.

早期的化学家们假设可燃物质含有一种隐蔽元素 — — 也就是燃素 — — 这就可以解释物质为什么在燃烧时会发生形式改变。


Yet, try as they might, scientists never could confirm the hypothesis.

但尽管竭尽全力，这一假设却永远无法被科学家们证实。


They could not track down phlogiston for the same reason that economists today cannot offer a measure of actual utility.

化学家无法证明燃素的存在，同理今天的经济学家也无法测量实际效用。


Economists use the concept of utility to explain why people make the choices they do – what to buy, where to invest, how hard to work: everyone is trying to maximize utility in accordance with one’s preferences and beliefs about the world, and within the limits posed by scarce income or resources.

经济学家利用效用的概念来解释人们作出选择的原因 — — 买什么、投资什么，工作多努力：每个人都试图根据自身关于世界的偏好和信念来实现效用最大化，同时也要受到收入和资源稀缺所带来的局限。


Despite not existing, utility is a powerful construct.

尽管并不存在，但效用却是一种强势结构。


It seems only natural to suppose that everyone is trying to do as well as they can for themselves.

人们似乎自然而然地认为，每个人都在尽一切可能为自己的利益打算。


Moreover, economists’ notion of utility is born of classical utilitarianism, which aims to secure the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people.

此外，经济学家的实用概念源于古典功利主义，而为最多人获取最大的利益是古典功利主义的目标。


Like modern economists following in the footsteps of John Stuart Mill, most of those designing algorithms are utilitarians who believe that if a “good” is known, then it can be maximized.

正如现代经济学家追随约翰·斯图尔特·密尔的脚步一样，绝大多数算法设计者都是功利主义者，他们相信如果知道有“好处 ” ， 那么就可以将好处最大化。