Qualitative research – such as ethnographies, participatory surveys, and case studies – is often designated as suitable only for B- and C-level journals.

定性研究 — — 如民族志、参与性调查和案例研究等 — — 往往被定性为只适合B级或C级期刊发表。


Academics conducting empirical research have a big advantage over those carrying out qualitative work, because they can use efficient software and powerful computers to test their hypotheses quickly and account for different variables in data sets.

相比那些从事定性研究的学者，从事实证研究的学者优势非常显著。 因为他们可以使用高效软件和功能强大的电脑来快速测试假设，并计算数据集中不同变量的影响。


This kind of work can be cheaper, too, because a single data set can generate multiple journal articles.

此类工作也可以降低成本，因为单个数据集可以产出多篇期刊文章。


To be sure, there is nothing wrong with scientific practices evolving along with technology, or with academics using richer data sets and better software.

可以肯定，科学实践随技术演进、抑或学术界使用更丰富的数据集和更先进的软件都属于正常现象。


But adoption of this quantitative approach should not be the single most important criterion for assessing scientific excellence and deciding career trajectories.

但这种定量方法的采用不应成为评估科学卓越性和决定职业轨迹的唯一重要的衡量指标。


After all, knowledge is acquired in different ways, and empirical positivism is only one method in a larger epistemological inventory.

毕竟知识是以不同方式取得的，而经验实证主义仅仅是广义认识论宝库中的一项法则。


The positivist trend in science today is particularly problematic for developing countries, where data sets are scarce and often of poor quality.

今天的实证主义趋势对发展中国家而言问题尤为严重，因为发展中国家不仅数据集稀缺，而且往往质量较差。


Thus, scientists working in developing countries face a dilemma: either work on rich-world problems for which there is abundant data, or risk career advancement by conducting qualitative work that will not make it into A-level journals.

因此，在发展中国家工作的科学家们面临着囚徒困境：或者研究有着丰富数据的富裕国家问题，或者甘冒职业生涯之险而进行无缘进入A级期刊的定性研究。


Academics who move from data-rich countries in Europe and North America to data-poor countries in the Middle East and elsewhere often face this problem.

从欧洲和北美等数据丰富国家迁往中东等数据贫乏国家的学者往往面临着这样的问题。


As researchers at my institution in Abu Dhabi know, conducting surveys for qualitative research is feasible; but generating rich data from scratch for theory-building research is extremely difficult.

正如阿布扎比我所在科研机构的研究人员所知的那样，采集调研数据用于进行定性研究尚属可行；但从零开始搜集理论建设研究所需的丰富数据却是极其困难的。


At the International Conference on Science and Technology Indicators this year, a French academic researching soil in Africa reported that only 5% of the published work in his field has originated from African researchers.

在今年召开的科学技术指标国际���议上，一位研究非洲土壤的法国学者报告在他所研究的领域，仅有5%的出版作品来自非洲研究者。


When he dug deeper into his own research, he found that 50% of what he had learned about African soil came from African researchers, who have not or could not publish their work in international academic journals.

但当他深入研究自己的研究成果时，却发现他对非洲土壤的认识有50%来自非洲研究者，而这些研究人员的成果没有也不可能在国际学术期刊上发表。


Countries where English is not the lingua franca are particularly disadvantaged in science, not because they lack academic excellence, but because English-language journals call the shots.

英语不是通用语的国家在科研方面处境尤其不利，这绝非因为他们学术科研水平不高，而是因为科学界由英语期刊来扮演发号施令的角色。


Non-English academic journals simply do not command the same attention in the science community.

非英语学术期刊在科学界根本得不到同样的关注。


As a result, the scope of research topics that many countries can undertake is limited, and they must struggle to retain scientific talent.

结果导致许多国家可以进行的研究课题范围有限，因此必须拼尽全力才能将科研人才留在本国。


This is particularly true in the Middle East, where governments are struggling to diversify their economies, in order to make them more resilient.

中东地区的情况尤其如此，各国政府正努力实现经济多样化，从而使国民经济适应性得到提高。


As English-language empirical-research journals consolidate their hold on the channels that determine whether or not a scientist will have a successful career, developing countries will have to invest heavily in their own data infrastructure to place domestic researchers on a more competitive footing.

因为英语实证研究期刊进一步增强了对科学家能否取得职业成功渠道的控制，发展中国家必须大量投资于国内数据基础设施，才能使国内研究人员处在更具竞争力的科研地位上。


But even – or especially – if developing countries do make such investments, much will be lost to science.

但即使 — — 或者尤其 — — 如果发展中国家确实进行这样的投资，将给科研领域造成非常严重的后果。


With (mostly) United States-based academic journals reigning over global science, no one has to move to become part of a new brain drain, whereby scientists’ research priorities, problems, and methods gravitate to the dominant positivist epistemology, at the expense of all alternatives.

因为统治全球科学的学术期刊（多数）来自美国，科学家不用实际迁移就会成为新人才流失的组成部分，科学家的研究重点、问题和方法将会牺牲其他选择而转向目前占主导地位的实证主义认识研究。


Closing the Financial Services’ Accessibility Gap

填补金融服务普及差距


KAMPALA – Last month, the United Kingdom hosted the first-ever Global Disability Summit to help focus the world’s attention on the needs of people with disabilities.

坎帕拉—上个月，英国举办了首届全球残疾峰会，帮助世界聚焦残障人士的需要。


The agenda was packed with topics like building equitable education, ending discrimination, and bringing technology to disabled communities – especially poor countries in the Global South.

会议日程包括构建平等教育、消除歧视、为残疾人士带去技术等话题 — — 特别是针对全球南方的穷国。


But one challenge that did not receive the attention it deserved is an often-overlooked component of development policy: access to financial services.

但有一个挑战没有受到应有的关注，那就是常常被忽略的发展政策要素：金融服务的普及。


This was a missed opportunity – not only for the world’s one billion disabled people, but also for the institutions that should be serving them.

这是一个措施的机会 — — 不仅对于全球十亿残障人士是如此，对应该为他们提供服务的机构亦然。


Increasing the accessibility of financial services is good for business and economic growth.

金融服务的日益普及对于商业和经济增长都是好事。


According to research by Barclays, when customers with disabilities are able to manage their money, economic vulnerability declines and overall economic health improves.

据巴克莱银行（Barclays）的研究，如果残障客户能够管理他们的钱，经济脆弱性就能减少，总体经济健康就能改善。


Moreover, with more than $1 trillion in disposable income, the so-called disability market is among the biggest potential client bases in the world. In other words, financial-service providers have every reason to cater to people with disabilities.

此外，所谓的残疾市场拥有超1万亿美元的可支配收入，是全球最大的潜在客户群体之一。


Why, then, are most businesses doing just the opposite?

那么，为什么大部分企业要反其道而行之？


One reason is a lack of awareness.

一个原因是缺乏认识。


Because people with disabilities typically have less income than their nondisabled peers, service providers have often lacked an incentive to extend support to them.

残障人士通常比无残障人士收入更少，因此服务提供商常常缺少将支持覆盖到他们的激励。


But, with more attention being paid to total market potential, financial institutions are starting to adjust their product lines accordingly.

但是，随着市场总潜力获得越来越多的关注，金融机构也开始调整产品线。


As they do, four issues must be addressed to maximize the benefits for customers with accessibility challenges.

在此过程中，为了存在金融服务普及困难的客户的利益，必须解决四个问题。


First, financial-services companies must work harder to understand the needs of current and future clients.

首先，金融服务公司必须更加努力地理解当前和未来客户需求。


For example, with better data, a bank in a particular market could improve the accessibility of its mobile-banking platforms.

比如，有了更好的数据，某个市场中的银行就能改善移动银行平台的普及。


This is essentially what happened at Standard Chartered Bank in India last year, when employees developed a voice-assisted system to help visually impaired customers access their accounts online.

去年渣打银行在印度就是这么做的，其员工开发了语音辅助系统帮助视觉障碍客户能够获得在线账户。


Good data are also essential to the effectiveness of advocacy groups as they push providers to improve their services.

好数据对于利益推动组织敦促供应商改善服务的效率也至关重要。


Second, engagement must not stop with innovative products; it must also be extended to the labor market.

其次，参与决不能只限于创新产品；还必须扩大到劳动力市场。


Simply put, the financial-services industry should hire more people with disabilities by investing in assistive technologies like braille readers and alternative and augmentative communication devices.

简言之，金融服务业应该雇用更多残障人士，投资于盲文阅读器等辅助技术和另类和增强沟通设备。


The need to diversify the workforce is particularly acute in the United States, where one in five people has a disability.

员工多样化的需求在美国尤其紧急，五分之一的美国人身带残疾。


Third, people with disabilities must always be included in discussions about how to expand and strengthen financial independence.

第三，必须一直将残障人士纳入关于如何扩大和加强金融独立性的讨论中。


In 2013, when the Lloyds Banking Group convened a focus group to examine the effects of dementia on customer behavior, engagement with clients led to the charter on Dementia-friendly Financial Services.

2013年，劳埃德银行集团（Lloyds Banking Group）组建了一个焦点小组考察痴呆对客户行为的影响，与客户的交流最后形成了痴呆友好金融服务章程。


This innovative document codified how banks should tailor products to clients with cognitive impairments.

这份创新文件规定了银行应该如何定制产品为认知障碍客户服务。


Future initiatives should follow this collaborative model to ensure that decision-making at all levels is facilitated by human-centered design.

未来方案应该遵循这一合作模式以确保各层次决策都有以人为本设计的推动。


And, lastly, governments must commit to addressing this issue, by emulating the action of countries like the UK, which has linked services for the disabled to development funding.

最后，政府应该致力于解决这一问题，效仿英国等国家的措施。 英国将残障人士服务与发展拨款挂钩。


With the right support, progress on these complex challenges can be sweeping; for example, at Financial Sector Deepening Uganda, where I work, we are using British aid money to extend financial services to the disabled in rural communities.

有了正确的支持，这些复杂挑战就能取得决定性的进展；比如，在我供职的乌干达金融业深化组织（Financial Sector Deepening Uganda ） ， 我们用英国援助资金扩大农村地区残障人士的金融服务。


Our vision is to encourage the emergence of similar programs in many other countries around the world.

我们的愿景是鼓励其他国家也出现类似的项目。


With 91 countries having already ratified the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, it is clear that there is plenty of political support for these initiatives.

已有91个国家签署了残疾人权利共约可选议定书，显然对于这些项目有足够的政治支持。


The challenge now is to turn pledges into action.

现在的挑战是如何将承诺兑现为行动。


In the coming decades, the world’s disabled population will grow as medical advances allow people to live longer, healthier, fuller lives.

在未来几十年中，随着医学进步让人活得更长久、更健康、更充实，世界残障人口数量也会增长。


Providing the disabled with access to financial services and products is among the best ways to guard against discrimination and nurture long-term empowerment.

让残障人士活得金融服务和产品是防止歧视、促进长期赋能的最佳办法之一。


Full financial inclusion will come slowly for a community often referred to as the “fastest-growing minority group in the world.”

这一通常被称为“全球增长最快的少数群体”的完全的金融包容正在缓慢实现。


The task for activists, advocates, enlightened business leaders, and policymakers is to highlight the social and economic benefits of success.

活动家、提倡者、开明商界领袖和决策者的任务是强调成功的社会和经济利益。


Surgery for All

让每个人都能手术


BOSTON – On a recent trip to India, I hailed a rickshaw that was pedaled, I soon noticed, by a man with a lame leg.

波士顿 — — 不久前，去印度旅行时，我雇了一辆脚踏的黄包车，我很快就发现，车夫的腿是瘸的。


It turns out that a few weeks earlier, the driver had been hit by a car while navigating the busy streets of New Delhi.

原来在几周前，车夫在新德里繁忙的街道上穿行时被一辆汽车撞了。


Although he had managed to obtain medication from a local pharmacy for the agonizing pain – probably because his leg was broken – he could spare neither the time nor the money to see a surgeon.

尽管他也设法从当地药房拿到了止痛药 — — 这样的剧烈疼痛可能因为他的腿断了 — — 但他既没有时间也没有钱去看外科。


This type of tragic calculus is strikingly common.

这种充满悲剧性的考量其普遍程度令人震惊。


The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery estimates that some five billion people – almost 70% of the world’s population – lack access to safe, affordable surgical and anesthetic care, while 33 million people are saddled with unbearably high health expenses.

据柳叶刀全球外科委员会估计，约有50亿人 — — 几乎占到全球人口总数的70 % — —都无法获得安全、经济的手术和麻醉服务，而高达3，300万人则背负着无法承受的高额医疗费用。


Not surprisingly, the global poor suffer disproportionately: while low-income countries are home to close to 35% of humanity, they account for just 3.5% of all surgical procedures.

不出所料，受影响的绝大多数集中在全球贫困人口：虽然低收入国家占全球人口总数的近35 % ， 但在能接受外科手术的人当中却仅占3.5%的份额。


One of the biggest obstacles to achieving universal health coverage – which the United Nations has declared a global goal – is financing.

融资是实现全民医疗覆盖一个最大的障碍 — — 已经被联合国宣布为全球目标。


And, paradoxical as it may sound, one of the best ways that governments can get the money they need to expand coverage is by making surgery more widely available.

而且，听上去可能有些自相矛盾，政府可以获得扩大覆盖资金的一种最佳方式就是扩大手术的覆盖范围。


Time-sensitive health problems – such as injuries from traffic accidents and pregnancy-related complications – are among the leading causes of death and disability in low- and middle-income countries.

时间敏感度相对较高的健康问题 — — 例如交通事故伤害和因妊娠引起的并发症 — — 是导致中低收入国家死亡和残疾的主要原因之一。


But untreated or undertreated conditions requiring surgery also hurt economic productivity.

但未经治疗或治疗不足然而却需要手术的病情同样有损经济生产力。


For example, the Lancet study estimated that the failure to improve surgical care in developing countries would translate into $12.3 trillion of lost economic output by 2030.

例如，据柳叶刀研究估计，未能改善发展中国家的手术治疗截止2030年可以导致12.3万亿美元的巨额经济产出损失。


Failure to maintain strong surgical capacity could even undercut economic gains made by middle-income countries, reducing total GDP growth by approximately 2% annually.

无法维持强大的手术能力甚至可能削弱中等收入国家所取得的经济效益，每年影响约2%的总GDP增长率。


For many leaders, the common perception is that provision of surgical care is not sustainable or cost-effective.

许多领导人普遍认为提供外科手术既不可持续也不具备成本效益。


When faced with tough budget choices, governments often favor programs that combat infectious and chronic diseases, leaving people like my rickshaw driver in the lurch.

因此当面临艰难的预算选择时，政府往往更倾向于抗击慢性及传染性疾病的项目，从而导致像我的人力车夫那样的民众陷入困境。


But a growing body of evidence suggests that these views are misplaced.

但越来越多的证据表明，这样的观点并不正确。


When researchers at the Harvard Medical School analyzed surgical interventions in low- and middle-income countries, they found a remarkable disconnect between economic assumptions and reality.

当哈佛大学医学院的研究人员分析中低收入国家的外科手术干预时，他们发现经济假设和现实之间存在非常显著的脱节 。


For example, they calculated that money spent on cesarean sections and joint surgeries yields higher returns than spending on the management of HIV or heart disease.

例如，他们计算出花在剖腹产和联合手术上的经费比花在艾滋病毒或心脏病管理方面的经费能够带来更高的效益。


To be sure, chronic and infectious diseases need our attention, too; we cannot restructure health systems overnight, nor should we turn our backs on those being treated for non-surgical illnesses.

可以肯定，慢性及传染性疾病也需要引起我们的重视；我们无法在一夜之间重组整个卫生系统，而且我们也不应当抛弃那些因为非手术型疾病而接受治疗的人。


But reforms that focus more attention on the importance of surgery would boost economic productivity and help create more equitable health care for everyone.

但更多关注手术重要性的改革可以提高经济生产率，并有助于为所有人创造更加公平的医疗环境。


For starters, health ministries and physician organizations should formally recognize that surgical and anesthetic care are an essential part of universal health coverage.

首先，卫生部和医生联合会应当正式承认，手术和麻醉护理是全民医疗覆盖的重要组成部分之一。


To make this case, health-care providers will need to improve their collection and analysis of data on surgical outcomes, which would increase transparency on mortality and morbidity and strengthen overall accountability.

为证明这一点，医疗保健提供机构应加强他们对手术结果数据的搜集和分析，这样做可以增加死亡率和发病率等数据的透明度，并强化问责制。


Decisions about how to expand services could be guided by the Lancet commission’s core indicators on “preparedness,” “delivery,” and “impact” of surgical care.

柳叶刀委员会有关外科治疗“术前准备 ” 、 “术中实施”和“术后影响”的核心指标可以用来指导扩大手术服务的决策。


Second, to pool risk and guard against cost overruns, countries that are considering universal coverage policies should put surgical care under publicly financed plans.

其次，为集中风险并防范成本超支，正在考虑全民覆盖政策的国家应在公共资助计划中纳入外科医疗服务。


While some funding for expanding surgical services could come from taxation, health-care providers should also explore innovative financing options – such as “social justice models,” whereby people pay according to their means.

虽然扩大手术服务的部分资金可以来源于税收，但医疗保健机构也应当探索创新融资方式 — — 即民众可以根据自身经济条件支付的“社会公平模式 ” 。


Finally, to streamline resources and increase surgical capacity, hospitals should explore task-sharing, whereby non-emergency cases are referred to licensed nurses and physician assistants.

最后，为简化资源运用并强化手术能力，医院应探索任务共享，将非紧急病例转诊至持证护士和医师助理。


Longer-term strategies include investing more in medical education to bolster the ranks of doctors and surgeons.

更为长期的策略包括加大在医学教育领域的资金投入，以建设医生和外科医师队伍。


The tremendous economic progress that many developing countries have made in recent decades has been largely driven by vibrant, young, and ambitious populations.

充满活力和雄心勃勃的年轻人一直推动着近几十年来强势的经济崛起。


One of the most effective ways to maintain this growth and development is to ensure access to safe and affordable healthcare – including surgery.

保持这种增长和发展最有效的手段之一是确保人们能够得到包括手术在内的安全和廉价的医疗服务。


While the cost of providing it may be high, the cost of not providing it is even higher.

虽然提供手术服务的成本可能很高，但与不提供手术服务的代价却完全无法相比。


Polluters Must Pay

污染者必须负责


NEW YORK – When BP and its drilling partners caused the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the United States government demanded that BP finance the cleanup, compensate those who suffered damages, and pay criminal penalties for the violations that led to the disaster.

发自纽约 — — 当英国石油公司及其搭档瑞士越洋钻探公司于2010年在墨西哥湾引发“深水地平线”漏油事故时，美国政府不但要求英国石油公司承担油污清理费用，赔偿受害者损失，还要为导致此次灾难的违规行为接受刑事处罚。


BP has already committed more than $20 billion in remediation and penalties.

英国石油公司已经为该事故调拨了200多亿美元用于善后补救工作和交纳罚金。


Based on a settlement last week, BP will now pay the largest criminal penalty in US history – $4.5 billion.

根据上周达成的协议，英国石油公司将支付美国历史上最大的一 笔刑事罚款 — — 45亿美元。


The same standards for environmental cleanup need to be applied to global companies operating in poorer countries, where their power has typically been so great relative to that of governments that many act with impunity, wreaking havoc on the environment with little or no accountability.

同样的环境事故清理善后标准也应运用到那些在贫困国家经营的国际企业身上。 这些大公司的势力相对当地政府来说通常极为巨大，以致许多公司都是在豁免权下活动，可以对环境造成严重破坏却极少或无需承担责任。


As we enter a new era of sustainable development, impunity must turn to responsibility.

随着我们进入一个可持续发展的新时代，豁免权应该转向责任制。


Polluters must pay, whether in rich or poor countries.

不管是在富国还是穷国，污染者必须付出代价。


Major companies need to accept responsibility for their actions.

大公司应该为它们的行为承担相应的责任。


Nigeria has been Exhibit A of corporate environmental impunity.

尼日利亚就曾经是企业逍遥于环境污染惩罚之外的例子。


For decades, major oil companies, including Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, have been producing oil in the Niger Delta, an ecologically fragile environment of freshwater swamp forests, mangroves, lowland rainforests, and coastal barrier islands.

几十年来，包括壳牌、埃克森美孚和雪弗龙在内的各大石油公司一直在尼日尔三角洲开采石油。 尼日尔三角洲是一个拥有淡水沼泽森林、红树林、低地雨林和沿海屏障岛屿的脆弱生态环境。


This rich habitat supports remarkable biodiversity – or did before the oil companies got there – and more than 30 million local inhabitants, who depend on the local ecosystems for their health and livelihoods.

这片肥沃富饶的栖息地支撑着非凡的生物多样性 — — 或者说在石油公司来破坏之前是这样的 — — 而当地3000多万居民的健康和生计都依赖于该生态系统。


Twenty years ago, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources classified the Niger Delta as a region of high biodiversity of marine and coastal flora and fauna – tree species, fish, birds, and mammals, among other forms of life – and therefore rated it as a very high priority for conservation.

二十年前，世界自然保护联盟把尼日尔三角洲分类为一个拥有极丰富海洋及沿海动植物多样性的地区 — — 不同树种、鱼类、鸟类和哺乳类与其他形式的生命共处一地 — — 因此将其列为极高的优先保护等级。


Yet it also noted that the region’s biodiversity was under massive threat, with little or no protection.

然而该联盟也指出，由于这个地区极少或未被保护，其生物多样性正处于巨大的威胁之中。


The global companies operating in the delta have spilled oil and flared natural gas for decades, without regard for the natural environment and the communities impoverished and poisoned by their actions.

在尼日尔三角洲经营的跨国石油企业几十年来一直在该地区泄漏石油及燃烧天然气，根本不考虑自然环境和因其行为而变得贫困甚至遭受毒害的人类社区。


One estimate puts the cumulative spills over the past 50 years at approximately 10 million barrels – twice the size of the BP spill.

一份研究估计宣称过去50年中这些公司累积泄漏的石油约为1000万桶 — — 这是英国石油公司漏油量的2倍。


The data are uncertain: there have been many thousands of spills during this period – often poorly documented and their magnitude hidden or simply unmeasured by either the companies or the government.

该数据并不准确：过去的50年中有好几千次石油溢出事故 — — 通常这些事故都未被详细记录，其石油泄漏量常常被掩盖甚至被公司及政府故意忽略。


Indeed, just as BP was being hit with new criminal penalties, ExxonMobil announced yet another pipeline leak in the Niger Delta.

确实，正当英国石油公司遭受新的刑事处罚时，埃克森美孚又通报了一起位于尼日尔三角洲的石油管道泄漏事件。


The environmental destruction of the delta is part of a larger saga: corrupt companies operating hand in hand with corrupt government officials.

三角洲的环境破坏只是一长串事件中的一部分：腐败的公司与腐败的政府官员相互勾结以牟取私利。


The companies routinely bribe officials to gain oil leases, lie about output, evade taxes, and dodge responsibility for the environmental damage that they cause.

公司通常贿赂政府官员以获取石油合同，它们谎报产量，偷税漏税，逃避由其经营活动引起的环境损害的责任。


Nigerian officials have become fabulously wealthy, owing to decades of payoffs by international companies that have plundered the delta’s natural wealth.

由于一直掠夺三角洲自然财富的跨国企业几十年来的贿赂，尼日利亚的政府官员变得惊人的富有。


Shell, the largest foreign operator in the Niger Delta, has been criticized repeatedly for its egregious practices and its unwillingness to be held to account.

壳牌 — — 尼日尔三角洲最大的国外营运商 — — 就屡次因其恶名昭彰的行为及不愿承担责任的态度而遭到外界批评。


Meanwhile, the local population has remained impoverished and beset by diseases caused by unsafe air, poisoned drinking water, and pollution in the food chain.

与此同时，当地居民却一直处于贫困状态，还被由不安全的空气、被污染的饮用水和食物链污染引起的疾病所困扰。


Local lawlessness has led to gang warfare and persistent illegal tapping into the pipelines to steal oil, leading to further massive oil spills and frequent explosions that kill dozens, including innocent bystanders.

当地违法行为已经引起了黑帮火拼以及层出不穷的管道偷油案件，这又进一步导致了大量石油泄漏事故并导致了造成大量人员死亡 — — 包括许多无辜受殃者 — — 的频繁爆炸事件。


In the colonial era, it was the official purpose of imperial power to extract wealth from the administered territories.

在殖民时期，从殖民领地攫取财富是帝国主义的官方意图。


In the post-colonial period, the methods are better disguised.

而在后殖民时期，这种意图有了更好的伪装。


When oil companies misbehave in Nigeria or elsewhere, they are protected by the power of their home countries.

当石油公司在尼日利亚或其他国家恣意妄为时，它们会受到母国政权保护。


Don’t mess with the companies, they are told by the United States and Europe.

美国及欧洲国家警告那些石油原产国：别找石油公司的麻烦。


Indeed, one of the largest bribes (a reputed $180 million) paid in recent times in Nigeria was by Halliburton, a company tightly intertwined with US political power.

确实，尼日利亚近期最大的一笔贿赂（外界普遍估计约1.8亿美元）是由美国哈利伯顿公司支付的，而该公司与美国政界则有着错综复杂的关系。


(Dick Cheney went from being Halliburton’s CEO to the US vice presidency.)

（迪克·切尼就是从哈利伯顿的首席执行官摇身一变成为美国副总统的。 ）


Last year, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) issued a remarkable report on Ogoniland, a major ethnic homeland in the Niger Delta that has been at the epicenter of conflict between local communities and international oil.

去年，联合国环境规划署发布了一份引人注目的奥贡尼兰报告，奥贡尼兰是一个曾经曾处于本地社区与跨国石油企业矛盾中心的尼日尔三角洲主要部族祖居地。


The report was as scathing as it was scientifically clear.

这份报告措辞严厉证据清晰。


Despite many past promises of a cleanup, Ogoniland remains in environmental agony, impoverished and sickened by the oil industry.

尽管过去石油公司作过很多关于清理的承诺，奥贡尼兰依旧处于恶劣的环境状况之下，该地区已经被石油产业榨干了财富而且疾病肆虐。


UNEP also offered clear and detailed recommendations, including emergency measures to ensure safe drinking water; cleanup activities targeting the mangroves and soils; public-health studies to identify and counteract the consequences of pollution; and a new regulatory framework.

联合国环境规划署同时还提供了清晰详细的建议，包括保证安全饮用水的紧急措施；针对红树木和土壤的清除活动；鉴定及消除污染后果的公共健康研究；还有一个新的监管框架。


The world’s governments have recently agreed to move to a new framework for sustainable development, declaring their intention to adopt Sustainable Development Goals at the Rio+20 Summit in June.

世界各国政府在六月的“里约+20峰会”上宣布他们打算采用可持续发展目标，并于近期同意为了可持续发展接受新的监管框架。


The SDGs offer a critical opportunity for the world to set clear, compelling standards for government and corporate behavior.

可持续发展目标为全世界给政府及公司行为设定清晰强制的标准提供了一个关键的机会。


Many major companies, including in the oil industry, have expressed their readiness to support sustainable development goals.

包括石油产业在内的许多大公司都表达了他们支持可持续发展目标的意愿。


Cleaning up the Niger Delta would provide the strongest possible example of a new age of accountability.

清除尼日尔三角洲的石油污染将给新时代的问责制提供一个具备最大实施可能性的例子。


Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other major oil companies should step forward and help to fund the necessary cleanup, ushering in a new era of responsibility.

壳牌、雪弗龙、埃克森美孚以及其他石油大公司应该站出来资助必要的石油污染清理，开创一个负责任的新时代。


The Nigerian government’s own accountability is on the line as well.

尼日利亚政府本身也有不可推卸的责任。


It is heartening that several Nigerian senators have recently been in the forefront of efforts to strengthen the rule of law in the oil sector.

令人鼓舞的是已经有几位尼日利亚参议员最近一直站在致力加强石油产业法治化的最前沿。


The cleanup of the Niger Delta provides an ideal opportunity for Nigeria, the oil industry, and the international community to show convincingly that a new age has dawned.

尼日尔三角洲的石油清理行动给尼日利亚、石油产业以及国际社会提供了一个理想的机会来向世界昭示 — — 一个新的时代已经到来了。


From now on, sustainable development must not be a mere slogan, but rather an operational approach to global governance and well-being on a strained and crowded planet.

从现在开始，可持续发展不能纯粹只是一个口号，而应该是针对全球治理及在这个浮躁拥挤的星球上谋求幸福的运作方法。


Saving Capitalism from Economics 101

让资本主义免遭“经济学入门”课的荼毒


WASHINGTON, DC – All across the United States, students are settling into college – and coming to grips with “Econ 101.”

发自华盛顿特区 — — 在全美各地，新生们正在进入大学 — — 并开始接触“经济学入门”课程。


This introductory course is typically taught with a broadly reassuring message: if markets are allowed to work, good outcomes – such as productivity growth, increasing wages, and generally shared prosperity – will surely follow.

这门入门课程通常会教授一个在很大程度上令人放心的信息：如果允许市场发挥作用，就必然会获得良好的结果 — — 如生产力增长、工资增长以及大众普遍共享的繁荣。


Unfortunately, as my co-author James Kwak points out in his recent book, Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality, Econ 101 is so far from being the whole story that it could actually be considered misleading – at least as a guide to sensible policymaking.

不幸的是，正如我某本著作的合著者詹姆斯·郭（James Kwak）在其新书《经济学主义：坏经济学和不平等的兴起》中所指出的那样 ， “ 经济学入门”远远无法涵盖这门学科的所有内容，甚至如果拿来指导明智政策制定的话，实际上可以被认为是存在误导性的。


Markets can be good, but they are also profoundly susceptible to abusive practices, including by prominent private-sector people.

市场有可能是好的，但它们也极易受到各类滥用行为的影响 — — 有些甚至出自知名私营部门从业者之手。


This is not a theoretical concern; it is central to our current policy debates, including important new US legislation that has just been put forward.

这不是理论上的问题；它是我们当前政策辩论的核心，包括刚刚提出的重要新立法法案。


One core problem is that market incentives reward self-interested private behavior, without accounting for social benefits or costs.

一个核心问题是市场激励机制会奖励那些自利的个人行为，而不考虑社会的利益或成本。


We generally overlook our actions’ spillover effects on others, or “externalities.”

我们通常忽略了自身行为对他人的溢出效应或“外部性 ” 。


To be fair, Econ 101 textbooks do discuss this issue in some contexts, such as pollution, and it is widely accepted that environmental damage needs to be regulated if we are to have clean air, clean water, and limits on other pollutants.

“初级经济学”教科书虽然确实在某些事件背景下（例如污染）讨论过这一问题，而人们也普遍同意：如果想拥有洁净空气、洁净的水以及减少其他污染物，就需要对破坏环境行为加以规管。


Unfortunately, “widely accepted” does not include by President Donald Trump’s administration, which is busy rolling back environmental protections across a broad range of activities.

不幸的是，特朗普总统的政府并不在这一“普遍同意”的行列中，因为该政府正忙于在一系列活动中废止环保措施。


The New York Times counts 76 rollbacks in progress.

《纽约时报》报道说目前有76个废止程序正在进行中。


The thinking behind this policy is straight out of the first few weeks of Econ 101: get out of the way of the market.

而这一政策背后的理念直接来自“经济学入门”的带头几个章节：别去打扰市场。


As a result, there is a lot more pollution – including more emission of greenhouse gases – in America’s future.

在此之下美国只会迎来更严重的污染 — — 包括更多的温室气体排放。


There is also an even deeper problem.

这里还存在一个更深层次的问题。


There is a general presumption in Econ 101 that firms should maximize profits, and that this is best for their shareholders and for society.

“经济学入门”中有一个普遍的假设，即企业应该最大化其利润，而这对其股东和社会也是最有利的。


But this notion of “firms” is just a shorthand for people organized in a particular form. People, not firms, make decisions.

但是这一“企业”的概念只是以特定形式组织起来的人群的简称，是人 — — 而不是企业 — — 在做决定。


To understand the nature and impact of these decisions, we need to look closely at the incentives of firms’ senior managers and board members.

要了解这些决策的性质和影响，我们需要密切关注公司高管和董事会成员的激励机制。


Since the 1970s, the people who run firms have become much more focused on increasing their compensation, through bonuses, stock options, and the like.

自1970年代以来，那些运营企业的人越来越着眼于通过奖金，股票期权等形式来增加薪酬。


There has been a significant rise in the value of shares, most of which are owned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans.

股票价值虽然大幅增长，但其中大部分都在最富有的那10％美国人手里。


At the same time, median wages have barely increased – a dramatic change from the immediate post-World War II period, when productivity increases led to steady wage gains.

与此同时，工资中位数却几乎没有增加 — — 这跟与第二次世界大战后那段时期大相径庭，那时生产率不断提高，令工资得以稳步增长。


Today, it is top managers and members of boards of directors in whose interest firms are run.

到如今，企业是为高层管理人员和董事会成员利益服务的。


Investors sometimes get a good ride, though there are plenty of instances where insiders take excessive advantage by awarding themselves overly generous compensation, taking on excessive risk, or engaging in other, more devious practices.

投资者有时会获得不错的收益，尽管有很多情况下都是内部人员通过为自己开出过分慷慨的报酬，执行高风险操作或实施其他更为欺诈性的做法来攫取超出本分的好处。


The idea that compensation committees insist on genuinely impressive performance, relative to relevant benchmarks, has become risible.

那种薪酬委员会只有在高管们在某些指标参照下拿出真正高业绩表现时才会开出相应薪资的想法已经近乎可笑了。


This is the context in which Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is proposing a new Accountable Capitalism Act.

这也是马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）提出新的《问责资本主义法案》的背景。


Very large companies would need to acquire a federal charter (as opposed to the current state charter arrangements), which would come with specific obligations – in particular, the need to consider the interests of all corporate stakeholders, including workers.

那些超大型企业需要获得联邦许可（而不是现行的州许可方案 ） ， 而其中会包含具体的义务 — — 特别是要考虑包括工人在内的所有公司利益相关者的利益。


To make this more meaningful and generally improve transparency, ordinary (non-management) employees should get some representation on the board of directors.

为了使这一举措更具意义且提高总体透明度，普通（非管理层）员工应该在董事会中获得一些代表权。


This type of arrangement works well in Germany, a country where workers continue to be treated with respect.

这一方案在德国行之有效，而德国也是一个劳动者长期得到尊重的国家。


Warren also supports a proposal that originated from John Bogle, founder of Vanguard (a mutual fund company), that would require super-majority support from shareholders and directors before a large company could engage in political expenditures.

沃伦还支持一项源自于Vanguard（一家共同基金公司）创始人约翰·博格尔（John Bogle）的提案，该提案要求大型企业只有在获得股东和董事的压倒多数支持后才能有政治方面的花费。


The underlying legal theory behind these proposals is sound, and it is well articulated in a letter signed by Robert Hockett of Cornell Law School and other distinguished figures.

这些提案背后的基本法律理论是合理的，康奈尔大学法学院教授罗伯特·霍克特（Robert Hockett）和其他杰出人士联署的一封信中也清楚地阐述了这一点。


Large corporations are granted significant rights, including limited liability for individual executives, and facilitate the pooling of large amounts of capital from people who do not necessarily know one another (or the promoters of the company).

大企业被授予了极大的权利，包括个人高管的有限责任，并从一群不一定了解彼此（或企业发起人）的人处汇集了大量资金。


Originally, the purpose was to enable the private sector to carry out large-scale risky investments that had broader potential impact, such as building canals and railroads.

此举最初的目的是使私营部门能够进行具备更广泛潜在影响的大规模风险投资，例如修建运河和铁路。


The US supposedly constrains the activities of large corporations, with the Department of Justice taking action if companies acquire monopoly power or otherwise behave in an anti-competitive manner.

美国理论上已经限制了大企业的活动，比如一旦企业获得垄断权力或以反竞争的方式行事，司法部就会采取行动。


Realistically, the enforcement of antitrust law has slipped a long way in recent years, under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

实际上，近年来无论是在共和党还是民主党政府的治理下，反托拉斯法的执行已经大大减少。


Warren is proposing a much broader rethink.

沃伦提出了一个更广泛的反思。


Large corporations can still do well, but they need to be held accountable in a much more transparent way.

大企业仍然可以做出贡献，但它们需要以更加透明的方式对自身行为负责。


Incentives for executives would be adjusted, and running these companies would no longer be so much about lining their own pockets.

对高级管理人员的激励措施将有所调整，而运营这些企业将不再仅限于填满自己的口袋。


Workers would no longer be treated so badly, and more people might even start to believe again in the American Dream of prosperity for all.

工人们将不再受到如此差劲的待遇，而更多的人甚至可能开始相信可以让所有人共同繁荣的美国梦。


The legitimacy of capitalism – private ownership and reliance on market mechanisms – would be greatly strengthened under the Accountable Capitalism Act.

在《问责资本主义法案》之下，资本主义的合法性 — — 私有制以及对市场机制的依赖 — — 将大大加强。


So, yes, like it or not, this will be on the final exam.

因此不管人们喜欢与否，这都将是一场期末考试。


A Centerless Euro Cannot Hold

缺少集中的欧元无法生存


CAMBRIDGE – With youth unemployment touching 50% in eurozone countries such as Spain and Greece, is a generation being sacrificed for the sake of a single currency that encompasses too diverse a group of countries to be sustainable?

美国剑桥—在西班牙和希腊等欧元区国家，年轻人失业率达到了50 % ， 这可以说是为了在覆盖彼此差异太大而根本不可能持续的多国实行单一货币而牺牲了一代人吗？


If so, does enlarging the euro’s membership really serve Europe’s apparent goal of maximizing economic integration without necessarily achieving full political union?

如果答案是肯定的，扩大欧元区成员国范围真的有助于欧洲达到最大化经济一体化而又不必形成政治上的完全统一这一众人皆知的目标吗？


The good news is that economic research does have a few things to say about whether Europe should have a single currency.

好消息是，经济研究确实对欧洲是否应该使用单一货币这一问题形成了一些成果。


The bad news is that it has become increasingly clear that, at least for large countries, currency areas will be highly unstable unless they follow national borders.

坏消息是，越来越明显的是，至少对于大国，货币区是非常不稳定的，除非其边界和国境线相同。


At a minimum, currency unions require a confederation with far more centralized power over taxation and other policies than European leaders envision for the eurozone.

不管怎样，货币联盟至少需要是一个邦联，拥有比欧洲领导人的欧元区愿景远为集中的税收和其他政策权力。


What of Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell’s famous 1961 conjecture that national and currency borders need not significantly overlap?

那么，如何看待诺贝尔奖获得者蒙代尔1961年的著名预言呢？ 蒙代尔说，国境线和货币边界并不需要大致重合。


In his provocative American Economic Review paper “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” Mundell argued that as long as workers could move within a currency region to where the jobs were, the region could afford to forgo the equilibrating mechanism of exchange-rate adjustment.

在他发表于《美国经济评论 》 （ American Economic Review）的雄文《最优货币区理论 》 （ A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas）中，蒙代尔指出，只要工人能在货币区内自由流动追逐工作，该货币区就可以形成一个汇率调整的均衡机制。


He credited another (future) Nobel Prize winner, James Meade, for having recognized the importance of labor mobility in earlier work, but criticized Meade for interpreting the idea too stringently, especially in the context of Europe’s nascent integration.

蒙代尔将对劳动流动性的重要性的认识归功于另一位（未来）诺贝尔奖获得者米德，但也指出，米德对这一观点的解释太过严格，特别是在欧洲一体化刚刚出现萌芽的时候。


Mundell did not emphasize financial crises, but presumably labor mobility is more important today than ever.

蒙代尔并未强调金融危机，但他推测劳动流动性在今日要比过去更重要。


Not surprisingly, workers are leaving the eurozone’s crisis countries, but not necessarily for its stronger northern region.

毫不奇怪，工人们正在离开欧元区危机国，但迁移目标并非一定是更坚挺的北欧地区。


Instead, Portuguese workers are fleeing to booming former colonies such as Brazil and Macau.

事实上，葡萄牙工人正在逃向繁荣的昔日殖民地，比如巴西和澳门。


Irish workers are leaving in droves to Canada, Australia, and the United States.

爱尔兰工人正在迁往加拿大、澳大利亚和美国。


Spanish workers are streaming into Romania, which until recently had been a major source of agricultural labor in Spain.

西班牙工人正在涌向罗马尼亚，而后者以前一直是西班牙农业劳动力的主要来源。


Still, if intra-eurozone mobility were anything like Mundell’s ideal, today we would not be seeing 25% unemployment in Spain while Germany’s unemployment rate is below 7%.

尽管如此，如果欧元区内部流动性能够与蒙代尔的理想状况略有相似，那么如今我们就不会看到西班牙失业率高达25%而德国失业率低至不到7%的情况。


Later writers came to recognize that there are other essential criteria for a successful currency union, which are difficult to achieve without deep political integration.

后来的研究者开始认识到成功的货币联盟还���要其他关键要素，而这些要素在没有深度政治一体化的情况下很难实现。


Peter Kenen argued in the late 1960’s that without exchange-rate movements as a shock absorber, a currency union requires fiscal transfers as a way to share risk.

柯南（Peter Kenen）在20世纪60年代末指出，如果没有汇率变动作为冲击吸收器，货币联盟就需要财政转移来作为分担风险的办法。


For a normal country, the national income-tax system constitutes a huge automatic stabilizer across regions.

在平常国家，国民所得税嫡系便是一个巨型地区级自动稳定器。


In the US, when oil prices go up, incomes in Texas and Montana rise, which means that these states then contribute more tax revenue to the federal budget, thereby helping out the rest of the country.

在美国，当油价上涨时，德克萨斯州和蒙大拿州的收入会上升，这意味着该两州将向联邦预算贡献更多的税收收入，从而帮助美国的其余地区走出困境。


Europe, of course, has no significant centralized tax authority, so this key automatic stabilizer is essentially absent.

当然，欧洲不存在大型中央税收当局，因此这一重要自动稳定器也就不存在了。


Some European academics tried to argue that there was no need for US-like fiscal transfers, because any desired degree of risk sharing can, in theory, be achieved through financial markets.

一些欧洲学者试图论证像美国那样的财政转移并不是必须的，因为从理论上说，不管你想要多大程度的风险共担，都可以通过金融市场达到。


This claim was hugely misguided.

这一论断大错特错。


Financial markets can be fragile, and they provide little capacity for sharing risk related to labor income, which constitutes the largest part of income in any advanced economy.

金融市场可能非常脆弱，所提供的分担劳动收入相关风险能力几乎为零，而劳动收入是发达国家收入的最大来源。


Kenen was mainly concerned with short-term transfers to smooth out cyclical bumpiness.

柯南主要关心的是短期转移可以平滑周期性起伏。


But, in a currency union with huge differences in income and development levels, the short term can stretch out for a very long time.

但是，在一个收入和发展水平差异巨大的货币联盟中 ， “ 短期”所经历的时间可能非常长。


Many Germans today rightly feel that any system of fiscal transfers will morph into a permanent feeding tube, much the way that northern Italy has been propping up southern Italy for the last century.

许多德国人如今正确地感受到，任何财政转移系统都有可能兑变为持久的饲管，正如上个世纪意大利北部对意大利南部的不断输血。


Indeed, more than 20 years on, Western Germans still see no end in sight for the bills from German unification.

事实上，德国统一20多年来，西德仍然看不到统一的成本什么时候才是个头。


Later, Maurice Obstfeld pointed out that, in addition to fiscal transfers, a currency union needs clearly defined rules for the lender of last resort.

再后来，奥布斯菲尔德（Maurice Obstfeld）指出，除了财政转移，货币联盟还需要有明确定义的最后贷款人规则。


Otherwise, bank runs and debt panics will be rampant.

否则的话，银行挤兑和债务恐慌将会泛滥。


Obstfeld had in mind a bailout mechanism for banks, but it is now abundantly clear that one also needs a lender of last resort and a bankruptcy mechanism for states and municipalities.

奥布斯菲尔德构想了一个银行救助机制，但现在，显而易见的是，国家和自治地区也需要最后贷款人和破产机制。


A logical corollary of the criteria set forth by Kenen and Obstfeld, and even of Mundell’s labor-mobility criterion, is that currency unions cannot survive without political legitimacy, most likely involving region-wide popular elections.

从柯南和奥布斯菲尔德所提出的前提出发，甚至即使从蒙代尔的劳动流动性前提看，一个符合逻辑的推论是，货币联盟不可能在没有政治合法性 — — 最有可能的形式是地区级的大选 — — 的前提下生存。


Europe’s leaders cannot carry out large transfers across countries indefinitely without a coherent European political framework.

没有凝聚性的欧洲政治框架，欧洲领导人就不可能无限度地在各国间实现大规模转移。


European policymakers today often complain that, were it not for the US financial crisis, the eurozone would be doing just fine.

如今，欧洲决策者经常抱怨说，要不是美国金融危机，欧元区根本不会遭殃。


Perhaps they are right.

也许这么说并不错。


But any financial system must be able to withstand shocks, including big ones.

但金融体系必须能够抵御冲击，即使是剧烈冲击。


Europe may never be an “optimum” currency area by any standard.

欧洲也许从来都不是一个“最优”货币区，不管从什么角度看都是如此。


But, without further profound political and economic integration – which may not end up including all current eurozone members – the euro may not make it even to the end of this decade.

但是，如果没有更加深远的政治和经济一体化 — — 也许最终无法将所有当前欧元区成员国纳入进来 — — 可能连这个十年都撑不过。


Achieving a “Europe of Results”

建设“以成果为导向的欧洲”


BRUSSELS – The tsunami that has swept across financial markets is a global catastrophe.

发自布鲁塞尔 — — 席卷全球的金融海啸无疑是场巨大的灾难。


If handled correctly, however, the crisis may yet raise the esteem of the European Union and its institutions.

但如果处理得当的话，这场危机反而能为欧盟及其下属机构赢来人们的重视与敬重。


The EU’s legitimacy problem has two different aspects: apathy, leading to a low turnout in the European parliamentary elections, and outright euro-skepticism.

毫无疑问，欧盟一直被其和合法性问题困扰着，而此问题则来自两方面：首先是人们的漠视，这导致了欧洲议会选举低下的投票率，还有就是那些彻底反对欧盟和欧元的怀疑论调。


The voter-turnout problem partly reflects frustration about the present state of the EU, and also people’s impression that they can exert little influence by voting one way or the other.

低投票率在某个侧面体现了民众对欧盟目前状况的挫折感，在他们看来无论选谁，自己这一票都微不足道。


Euro-skepticism, on the other hand, and the looming threat of anti-European populism, is directly linked to the idea that the EU is not merely incapable of offering a solution to the crisis, but in fact is part of the problem.

而在另一方面，欧盟怀疑论以及反欧盟民粹主义的兴起，则直接与另一种想法有关：那就是欧盟非但不能为危机提供解决方案，连其本身都是问题的始作俑者。


So, although the EU represents our best hope of ensuring that Europe is internationally competitive in today’s increasingly difficult environment, it is actually being blamed for globalization.

因此即便欧盟体现了我们为确保欧洲在日渐艰难的时势中保持竞争力的良好愿望，它依然受到“为危机全球化推波助澜”的指责。


Many people confuse these two aspects of the EU’s legitimacy problem, and believe that somehow turnout in European elections can be increased by pointing out to people how good and important the EU is.

许多人混淆了欧盟合法性的这两方面问题，并坚信只要能劝服民众说欧盟有多好、有多重要，就能让欧洲议会选举投票率有所提升。


But in most cases, this is not possible.

但在绝大多数情况下，这条路根本没行不通。


At first sight, the easiest answer to the problem of low voter turnout is to give more power to the European Parliament.

照“拍脑袋”简单一想的方法，提高投票率的最简单方法就是赋予欧洲议会更多的权力。


But if this was the solution, then we would not have had steadily declining turnouts since the high point of 63%, at the first elections to the European Parliament in 1979. After all, since then the EP’s influence and powers of joint decision-making have grown constantly.

但如果这也算解决方案的话，那就难以解释为什么欧洲议会的影响力和联合决策权在1979年第一次选举之后不断扩大，但投票率却在那次选举的63%高点上逐步下降的矛盾现实了。


The trouble is that, EP elections must be “about” something if voters are to be interested, which means they must involve a real choice.

问题在于，欧洲议会选举如果要吸引选民的话，那么它必须“言之有物 ” ， 让选民意识到自己确实在作出一个“实打实”的选择。


And a real choice requires Europe-wide election campaigns by all parties. This would also involve making the choice of the European Commission’s president dependent on the outcome of the EP elections.

而这样一个“实打实”的选择要求有全欧洲所有党派的竞选活动来共同组成，其中还包括让选民通过决定欧洲议会选举的结果来选定谁是欧盟委员会主席。


But, in fact, both of these conditions have already been met; in 2004, Portuguese Prime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso was appointed President of the Commission because he came from the political organization with the strongest election result, the European People’s Party.

但其实上述这些条件其实早就达到了：在2004年，葡萄牙首相何塞·曼努埃尔·杜朗·巴罗佐就因其背后的政治组织“欧洲人民党团”在欧洲议会竞选中风头最劲而被任命为欧盟委员会主席。


And this year’s elections saw a more intensive presence of party organizations at European level than ever before.

而今年欧洲议会选举中此类欧洲层面上的党团势力也比以往更加集中地出现在人们眼前。


Instead, I believe that the most important way to reawaken voters’ interest in European elections will be to open up the election of the Commission’s President to them, and create a genuinely Europe-wide political debate during the next election campaign.

因此我相信，要唤起选民热情，最重要手段就是让他们直接选举欧盟委员会主席，还必须在下次欧洲议会竞选活动中，真正掀起一场覆盖全欧洲的政治大辩论。


The Euro-skepticism problem can be tackled only if the Union itself starts to perform better, and is seen to be doing so.

而欧洲怀疑论的冰释，只能在欧盟开始表现得更好，并似乎能一直保持努力进步之后才能达到。


That is why in the aftermath of the failed referenda four years ago in France and the Netherlands on the Constitutional treaty, the Commission tried to emphasize the idea of a “Europe of Results” that would seek to convince citizens of its worth through concrete achievements.

这也是为什么在对4年前欧盟宪法公投在法国和荷兰惨遭滑铁卢的事实进行了检讨之后，欧盟委员会就开始强调“以成果为导向的欧洲”这一理念，并试图用看得见摸得着的政绩去让人们明白欧盟的价值。


Given the gravity of the economic crisis, the time has come for the EU to demonstrate its strengths whenever possible.

考虑到经济危机的巨大影响力，是时候让欧盟尽可能地展现自己的力量了。


The aim must be not only to win back the hearts of Europeans who have become skeptical, but also to convince them that the Union is indispensable to meeting the challenges Europeans face.

而这些努力的目标不仅是赢回那些满腹狐疑的欧洲人的心，更要让他们确信：欧盟这个组织在应对当前挑战方面是不可或缺的。


Europe’s citizens understand that the relatively small nation-states that make up the EU are no longer able to face these enormous challenges on their own.

欧洲的公民们已经意识到，欧盟内部那些相对较小的国家早已无力独自应对这些巨大挑战。


In Ireland, last autumn’s financial crisis provoked a turnaround in public opinion about the EU, and even in Iceland, although it lies on the periphery of our continent, membership of the EU and the euro have become a priority.

在爱尔兰，去年夏天的金融危机让人们对欧盟的态度发生了180度的转向，甚至连一向游离于欧洲大陆之外的冰岛，欧盟成员国资格和欧元也被放在了首位。


European countries have become so interconnected that isolated national measures on issues like financial-market regulation are hopeless.

欧洲国家的利益是如此盘根错节地交织在一起，以至于那些试图用孤立的国家政策来应对金融市场规管问题的手段都变得一无是处。


A changing world in which new powers like China and India play an increasingly important role will not wait for Europe to make up its mind.

世界正在变化，中国和印度这类新兴强权正日渐扮演更重要的角色，它们可等不及欧洲去打自己的小算盘。


The EU must instead show leadership through its efforts to solve the world’s current problems.

因此欧盟必须通过解决当今世界问题的一系列努力来显示其领导地位。


As for the European People’s Party, for us the economy is not an end in itself but should serve the people.

而对于我所属的欧洲人民党团来说，经济体系的存在目的不是为自身谋利，而是服务大众。


The economic crisis was caused by shortsightedness and a lack of control in the global financial system. Now we must redefine the role of regulators in financial markets and in the wider economy, for we cannot let the financial sector walk off with the profits and leave taxpayers bearing the losses.

目前这场经济危机源自于目光短浅的行为以及全球金融系统的管制不力，因此我们必须重新定义在金融市场和更宏观经济中规管者所需扮演的角色，因为我们不能让金融部门一面把利润塞满自己的口袋，另一面却叫纳税人来承担损失。


That doesn’t mean that we are advocating a move to socialism; we want better and smarter regulation, not regulation for its own sake.

这并不意味着我们鼓吹社会主义；监管必须更好和更明智，而不是为监管而监管。


We see five keys to recovery:

而下面五点则是经济复原的关键：


A “Europe of Results” is achievable.

一个“以成果为导向的欧洲”是可以实现的。


It can strengthen the EU’s legitimacy, though, only if policy recommendations such as these, and the successes that result from implementing them, are communicated clearly and effectively to the general public.

只要我们能向公众清晰有效地说明上述政策建议，并在实际执行中取得成功，那么欧盟合法性的增强，就必然会得以实现。


The Education Roadmap to 2030

2030年教育路线图


LONDON – When I visited the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan earlier this year, I met with children who told me what education means to them.

伦敦—今年早些时候，我访问了位于约旦的扎塔里（Zaatari）难民营。 我遇见了一些儿童，他们告诉我教育对他们意味着什么。


For Syrian youths who have been forced from their homes and have lost everything, education is about more than qualifications or test scores; it embodies their hope for the future.

对被迫离开家园、失去一切的叙利亚年轻人来说，教育的意义远不止合格或分数；而是寄托着对未来的希望。


Children like those in Zaatari, and millions of others around the world, are central to the work of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity, which I joined last September.

扎塔里难民营以及全世界的数百万儿童是全球教育机会融资国际委员会（International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity）工作的核心。


This commission is committed to the fourth United Nations Sustainable Development Goal, which aims, by 2030, to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”

我在去年9月加入了该委员会，它致力于联合国可持续发展目标中的第四项，即到2030年“确保包容和平等的高质量教育并推动全人类的终身学习机会。 ”


This goal is still a distant prospect for far too many children.

对于太多的儿童而言，这个目标仍然遥不可及。


With so many development issues demanding our attention, policymakers should bear in mind that education is not just a good in itself; it is also a catalyst for many other development gains.

有如此多的发展问题需要我们关注，决策者应该时刻铭记，教育不但本身是一种好东西（good ） ； 而且也是其他众多发展收益的催化剂。


As the old African proverb goes, if you educate a girl, you educate an entire nation.

非洲古谚有云，教育女孩等于教育整个国家。


Ensuring access to quality education for children, especially girls, will lead to fewer child marriages and less child labor and exploitation.

确保儿童特别是女孩获得高质量教育能减少童婚、童工和剥削。


And education has long-term societal benefits: aside from increased political engagement, educated children contribute intellectual capital and pursue entrepreneurial opportunities when they grow up, boosting economic growth.

教育也具有长期收益：除了增加政治参与，受过教育的儿童能带来智力资本并能在长大后追求创业机会，从而提振经济增长。


Tackling the education challenge needs to start from two principles embedded in the goal.

克服教育挑战必须从联合国可持续发展目标的两大原则开始。


First, “for all” means that we must focus on the children who have been left behind.

首先 ， “ 全人类”意味着我们必须关注落后的儿童。


Millions of children are out of school or are receiving a substandard education because of who they are or where they live.

数百万儿童因为出身家庭或地区而辍学或只能得到劣等教育。


According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, refugee children are five times more likely to be out of school than other children in the countries to which they’ve been displaced.

据联合国难民高级委员，难民儿童辍学的可能性比收留国儿童高五倍。


And in all but two African countries, girls remain less likely than boys to complete a primary education.

只有两个非洲国家，女孩完成小学教育的可能性不低于男孩。


Getting these children into school will require new approaches that directly address their exclusion and make schooling genuinely accessible and relevant.

让这些儿童上学需要直指他们被排斥的问题、让学校真正得到开放和重要的新方针。


Second, “quality”: Education must be effective, so that children actually learn.

其次是“高质量 ” ： 教育必须是有效的，从而让儿童真正得到学习。


For the 61 million children who are out of primary school, formal education is beyond reach.

对6,100万无法上小学的儿童来说，正规教育遥不可及。


But, just as urgently, more than one-third of children of primary-school age – 250 million – are not learning the basics, according to the UNESCO Education for All Global Monitoring Report.

但是，同样紧迫的是，据联合国教科文组织全民教育全球检测报告，有超过三分之一的小学适龄儿童 — — 2.5亿人 — — 没有学到基础知识。


Half of these children have been in school for at least four years.

这些儿童中有一半已经上了至少四年学。


We must address the barriers to learning, both in the classroom and at home, by improving the quality of teaching and classroom conditions and teaching parents how they can support their children’s education.

我们必须改善教学质量和教室条件、教会家长如何支持孩子的教育，以此消除教室和家中的学习壁垒。


Upholding these two principles will require increased investment.

坚守这两大原则需要增加投入。


Last year, UNESCO calculated that governments must double education spending as a share of national income to achieve the 2030 goals.

去年，联合国教科文组织估算政府必须将教育支出占国民收入的比重提高一倍才能完成2030年目标。


This will require increased revenue from taxation and stronger efforts to collect what’s owed.

这需要增加来自税收的收入、加强查漏补缺。


Donors also need to live up to their aid commitments and target aid more effectively.

出资国也需要兑现援助承诺，加强援助的定向性。


For example, less than one-third of education aid goes to Africa, even though the region accounts for almost two-thirds of out-of-school children.

比如，只有不到三分之一的教育援助流向了非洲，而那里的辍学儿童数量占全球的近三分之二。


Moreover, at the moment, education budgets are often regressive, with almost half of spending in the poorest countries allocated to the most educated 10% of the population.

此外，目前教育预算常常呈现出累退特征，最贫穷国家的近一半支出流向了受教育程度最高的10%人口。


Fixing education investment requires action in two key areas.

增加教育投入需要在两大关键领域采取行动。


First, we need equitable financing, with more investment in early childhood care and development, where there is the biggest potential for returns.

首先，我们需要公平的融资，更多地投入早期看护和发展，这是回报潜力最大的领域。


Budgets must be focused on the most excluded children, and primary education must be free at the point of use, so that every child can learn.

预算必须着重关注最受排斥的儿童，小学教育必须免费，以使人人都能上学。


We also urgently need more transparency and accountability, so that budgets are visible and communities have a say in school governance.

我们急需更多的透明度和问责，以使预算可见、社会能对学校治理问题发出声音。


Second, we need to strengthen domestic education systems so that governments see themselves as the guarantor of accessible, quality schools for their citizens, rather than abdicating that role to outside development agencies.

其次，我们需要强化国内教育体系，以使政府自视为为公民提供开放的高质量学校的保证者，而不是自甘堕落为外部发展机构。


In particular, we should push for partnerships between government and business to boost domestic resources for education, and eliminate illicit capital flows that deprive governments of the means to fund it, such as tax evasion and money laundering across national borders.

特别是，我们应该推动政府和企业的合作以提振国内教育资源，清除阻碍政府融资途径的非法资本流，如逃税和跨境洗钱。


With these priorities in mind, the education commission will deliver its recommendations at the UN General Assembly on September 18, when the Secretary-General will receive and act on them.

带着这些重点，教育委员会将在9月18日的联合国大会上发布它的建议，联合国秘书长将得到这些建议并据此行动。


The Education Commission will have succeeded if we are able to leverage the funding and political will to ensure that every child learns, regardless of their income, location, or social status.

如果我们能够利用资金和政治意愿保证每个儿童，不论其收入、所在地或社会地位，都能学习，教育委员会就取得了成功。


Our work will not be complete until that happens.

到了这一步，我们的工作才能宣告完成。


Sustaining Progress in Transition Countries

保持转型国家的进步


NEW YORK – In the World Bank’s most recent “Doing Business” report, half of the Eastern European and Central Asian countries included in the global ranking were among the top 50.

纽约—在世界银行最新的《营商 》 （ Doing Business）报告中，有一半参与全球排名的东欧和中亚国家位列前50名。


As a measure of economic maturity, the report confirms what many in the international development community have long known: the region is ascendant.

作为经济成熟度的指标 ， 《 营商报告》确认了许多国际发展界早已熟知的事情：该地区正在崛起。


Over the last decade, the economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have recorded spectacular gains, buttressed by ambitious market and public-sector reforms.

在过去十年中，东欧和中亚国家进步抢眼，它们依靠的雄心勃勃的市场和公共部门改革。


The question now is how to ensure that this progress – which has tripled the size of the middle class – is sustained.

现在的问题是如何确保这一进步 — — 它让中产阶级规模扩大了两倍 — — 得到保持。


Signs of the region’s social and economic prosperity are everywhere.

该地区社会和经济繁荣的迹象随处可见。


In Azerbaijan, incomes have increased dramatically in recent decades, and only 5% of the population now lives below the poverty line – down from nearly 50% in 2002.

在阿塞拜疆，最近几十年来收入大幅上升，目前只有5%的人口生活在贫困线以下 — — 而2002年这一比例接近50 % 。


Elsewhere, Estonia is the third country in Europe in startups per person and has one of the fastest Internet speeds anywhere.

在其他国家，爱沙尼亚的人均初创企业数量位列欧洲第三，也是全世界互联网网速最快的国家之一。


And from Albania to Kyrgyzstan, e-government systems are allowing more people to connect with critical services through online and electronic portals.

而从阿尔巴尼亚到吉尔吉斯斯坦，电子政务系统让更多的人能够通过在线和电子门户连接到关键服务。


But while it is tempting to assume that the region is destined for prosperity, structural bottlenecks continue to slow progress, especially in the Western Balkans, the southern Caucasus, and parts of Central Asia.

但在我们认为该地区必将走向繁荣时，结构性瓶颈仍在拖累进步，特别是在西巴尔干、南高加索和中亚的部分地区。


To maintain momentum in meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, leaders must address three key issues.

要保持势头、实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDG ） ， 领导人必须解决三个重要问题。


First, the region’s economies need to be strengthened to incentivize smarter, more sustainable growth.

首先，该地区经济体需要变得更加强大以激励更智能、更可持续的增长。


For example, fossil-fuel subsidies should be reconsidered, because they discourage investment in energy-efficiency projects, and impede the development of renewable technologies.

比如，化石燃料补贴应该重新考虑，因为它们阻碍了能源效率项目的投资，也阻碍了可再生科技的发展。


Similarly, while public financing of pensions and welfare programs is dependent on taxing labor, much of the region currently suffers from high rates of unemployment; in the Western Balkans, there are nearly no jobs, or none at all.

类似地，退休金和福利计划的公共融资需要向劳动力征税，而该地区大部分地区却饱受失业率高企之苦；西巴尔干地区几乎没有工作岗位可用。


Job creation is an urgent challenge for every state in the region.

就业创造对域内所有国家来说都是一项紧迫挑战。


Second, in many countries, the space for civil society is becoming narrower, posing a threat to pluralism and accountability.

其次，在许多国家，公民社会的生存空间越来越狭窄，这成为多元化和问责的威胁。


To prevent conflict and give voice to the region’s marginalized groups, tolerance and respect for human rights must be made essential ingredients of governance.

为了防止冲突、为域内边缘化群体提供发出声音的机会，宽容和尊重人权必须成为治理的核心要素。


Finally, the region must coordinate on strategies to address the changes that automation and artificial intelligence will bring to the labor market.

最后，该地区必须制定协调战略克服自动化和人工智能给劳动力市场带来的变化。


Leaders in some countries, particularly Belarus, are shifting economic output from heavy manufacturing to technology startups.

一些国家特别是白俄罗斯的领导人正在设法让经济产出从重型制造业向科技初创企业转移。


But authorities everywhere can do more to increase the resilience of their workforces.

但各国当局都可以在提高劳动力适应力方面做更多事情。


Fortunately, governments, technology companies, civil-society groups, and journalists recognize the salience of these issues and are working together to build more transparent and accountable institutions.

幸运的是，政府、科技公司、公民社会团体以及记者认识到这些问题的突出性，并在合作构建更透明、问责性更好的机构。


In many countries, heads of government are using the SDGs to guide their national planning and efforts to legislate reforms.

在许多国家，政府首脑正在用SDG指引国家规划和立法改革。


The parliaments of several Central Asian countries have even endorsed the SDGs as a development roadmap.

一些中亚国家的议会甚至将SDG写入了发展路线图。


Changes like these are helping to translate development ambition into action.

诸如此类的变化有助于将发展雄心转化为行动。


In Armenia, the government recently created the world’s first national SDG innovation laboratory, a collaborative effort designed to “accelerate” SDG implementation.

在亚美尼亚，政府最近新成立了世界首个国家SDG创新实验室，这是一个为“加快”SDG实施而进行的合作项目。


Initial research efforts will focus on increasing the country’s tax collection, improving its education system, and boosting its renewable-energy sector.

初始研究计划将聚焦于提高国家税收、改善教育制度以及提振可再生能源业。


Meanwhile, planning officials in Moldova have used crowdfunding to raise millions of dollars from the diaspora to fund sustainable development projects at home.

与此同时，摩尔多瓦的规划馆员利用众筹从侨民手中筹集数百万美元用于国内可持续发展项目。


Revitalization efforts have included the reconstruction of a public plaza in the capital, Chișinău, and the expansion of infrastructure in rural areas.

复兴计划包括重建首都基希讷乌的一个公共广场和扩张农村基础设施等。


The region’s private sector is also participating actively in sustainable development efforts.

该地区的私人部门也在积极参与可持续发展措施。


From Siemens’ green heating and air conditioning systems to Unilever’s “equal pay for equal work” policy, multinational firms operating in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are embracing sustainability and equality as viable business models.

从西门子的绿色采暖和空调系统到联合利华的“同工同酬”政策，在东欧和中亚经营的跨国企业都将可持续性和平等性视为可行的商业模式。


In only a few decades, the people of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have witnessed profound political and economic changes.

在短短几十年里，东欧和中亚人民经历了深刻的政治和经济变化。


To capitalize on the development progress already made, countries and organizations must learn from one another, adapting solutions to local conditions.

要利用已经取得的发展成就，各国和组织必须彼此学习，根据本地条件采用方案。


That will be the main topic at the Istanbul Development Dialogues, an annual global gathering organized by the UN Development Programme, this week.

这也是本周举行的伊斯坦布尔发展对话（Istanbul Development Dialogues，联合国开发规划署组织的年度全球会议）的主要议题。


As the new UNDP Strategic Plan for 2018-2021 argues, collaboration is a critical component to any sustainable-development strategy.

联合国开发规划署2018—2021年战略计划指出，合作是可持续发展战略的关键要素。


If the measure of a country can be calculated by how easily business is conducted within its borders, the states of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have a bright future.

如果一国的衡量指标可以通过在其境内营商的容易程度来计算，那么东欧和中亚国家有着光明的未来。


With strong leadership that transforms the region’s economies and modernizes its institutions, the region’s recent gains will not be fleeting.

拥有改变地区经济、现代化地区机构的强力领导层，该地区最近的进步不会飞逝。


The Achilles’ Heel of Trumponomics

特朗普经济学的阿克琉斯之踵


NEW HAVEN – Donald Trump’s economic strategy is severely flawed.

纽黑文—唐纳德·特朗普的经济战略存在严重缺陷。


The US president-elect wants to restore growth via deficit spending in a country with a chronic shortfall of saving.

这位当选总统想要通过赤字支出在长期储蓄不足的美国重塑增长。


This points to a further compression in national saving, making a widening of an already outsize trade gap all but inevitable.

这将进一步挤压国民储蓄，导致已然十分巨大的贸易缺口不可避免地继续扩大。


That dynamic unmasks the Achilles’ heel of Trumponomics: a blatant protectionist bias that collides head-on with America’s inescapable reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits to sustain economic growth.

这一动态暴露了特朗普经济学的阿克琉斯之踵：公然倒向保护主义，而保护主义与保持美国经济增长无法摆脱的外部储蓄和贸易赤字依赖格格不入。


The Trump administration will not inherit a strong and sound US economy.

特朗普政策无法从前任手中获得一个强大而可靠的经济。


The pace of recovery since the Great Recession has been running at half that of normal cyclical rebounds – all the more disturbing given the massive size of the contraction in 2008-09.

自大衰退以来，复苏速度只有常规周期性反弹的一半 — — 考虑到2008—09年间的巨大萎缩程度，复苏速度的萎靡尤其令人不安。


And savings, the seed corn of future prosperity, remain in woefully short supply.

而身为未来繁荣种子的储蓄仍然处于严重短缺状态。


The so-called net national saving rate – the depreciation-adjusted sum of business, household, and government saving – stood at just 2.4% of national income in mid-2016.

2006年年中，所谓的净国民储蓄率 — — 经折旧调整的企业、家庭和政府储蓄总和 — — 仅为国民收入的2.4 % 。


While that’s an improvement from the unprecedented negative saving position in 2008-2011, it remains far short of the 6.3% average that prevailed over the final three decades of the twentieth century.

尽管相对2008—2011年间前所未有的负储蓄头寸而言这已经算得上是改善，但与二十世纪最后三十年6.3%的平均水平相比仍然相去甚远。


This is important because it explains the pernicious trade deficits that Trump continues to rail against.

这个问题很重要，因为它解释了特朗普一直大加鞭挞的罪恶的贸易赤字。


Lacking in saving and wanting to grow, the United States must import surplus saving from abroad.

美国一方面缺少储蓄，一方面又渴望增长，因此必须从国外进口储蓄盈余。


And the only way to attract that foreign capital is by running massive current-account and trade deficits.

而吸引这一外国资本的唯一办法是通过大规模经常项目和贸易赤字。


The numbers bear this out: since 2000, when national saving fell well below trend, the current-account deficit has widened to an average of 3.8% of GDP – nearly four times the 1% gap from 1970 to 1999.

数字说明一切：自2000年国民储蓄大幅低于趋势水平以来，经常项目赤字平均值扩大到GDP的3.8 % — —是1970—1999年间1%的缺口水平的近四倍。


Similarly, the net export deficit – the broadest measure of a country’s trade imbalance – has been 4% of GDP since 2000, versus an average of 1.1% over the final three decades of the twentieth century.

类似地，净出口赤字 — — 一国贸易失衡程度最广泛的指标 — — 自2000年以来为GDP的4 % ， 而二十世纪最后三十年间的平均水平为1.1 % 。


Trumponomics has the cause and effect behind this development backwards.

特朗普经济学具备了这一趋势倒转的因果关系。


It fixates on country-specific sources of the trade deficit, like China and Mexico, but misses the fundamental point that these bilateral deficits are symptoms of America’s far deeper saving problem.

特朗普经济学关注贸易赤字的具体国家来源（如中国和墨西哥 ） ， 但忽视了这些双边赤字只是更深层次的美国储蓄问题的症候这一基本点。


Presume for the moment that the US closes down trade with China and Mexico – the first and fourth largest components of the overall trade deficit – through a combination of tariffs and other protectionist measures (including the proposed renegotiation of NAFTA and a Mexican-funded border wall).

假设有朝一日美国通过关税和其他保护主义措施（包括特朗普所提出的重新谈判NAFTA和由墨西哥出钱修建边境墙）关闭与中国和墨西哥的贸易 — — 它们分别是贸易赤字第一大和第四大来源。


Without addressing America’s chronic saving shortage, the Chinese and Mexican components of the trade deficit would simply be redistributed to other countries – most likely to higher-cost producers.

这无法解决美国由来已久的储蓄短缺，来自中国和墨西哥的贸易赤字将重新分配给其他国家 — — 很有可能是成本更高的生产国。


The result would be the functional equivalent of a tax hike on beleaguered middle-class US families.

结果在效果上等价于对饱受挤压的美国中产阶级家庭增税。


In short, there is no bilateral fix for a multilateral problem.

简言之，多边问题无法通过双边方法解决。


The US had trade deficits with 101 countries in 2015 – a multilateral problem stemming from a saving shortfall that cannot be effectively addressed through country-specific “remedies.”

2015年，美国对101个国家存在贸易赤字 — — 这是一个源自储蓄短缺的多边问题，它无法通过针对具体国家的“疗法”解决。


That’s not to say that America’s trading partners should be let off the hook for unfair practices.

这并不是说美国的贸易伙伴可以摆脱不公平行为的干系。


But it does mean that there is limited hope for resolving seemingly chronic trade deficits – and the related erosion of domestic hiring traceable to these imbalances – if the US doesn’t start saving again.

但这确实意味着，如果美国不重新开始储蓄，解决似乎存在已久的贸易赤字问题 — — 以及可归因于这些失衡的相关的国内就业损失问题 — — 的希望十分有限。


Alas, this plot is about to thicken.

可惜，情况将变得越发复杂。


Trumponomics seems likely to exacerbate America’s saving shortfall in the years ahead.

未来几年，特朗普经济学可能恶化美国的储蓄短缺。


Analyses by the Tax Policy Center, the Tax Foundation, and Moody’s Analytics all indicate that federal budget deficits under Trump’s economic plan are headed back toward at least 7% of GDP over the next ten years.

税收政策中心（Tax Policy Center ） 、 税收基金会（Tax Foundation）和穆迪分析公司（Moody’s Analytics）的分析都表明，按照特朗普经济计划计算，联邦预算赤字在未来十年将至少回升至GDP的7 % 。


Trump’s senior economic-policy advisers, Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross (Trump's pick for commerce secretary), argued in a position paper in September that these estimates are flawed, because they don’t take into account “growth-inducing windfalls” from regulatory and energy reforms, or the added bonanza that should arise from a sharp narrowing of America’s trade deficit.

特朗普的高级经济政策顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）和威尔布尔·罗斯（Wilbur Ross）在9月份的立场报告中指出，这些估算存在缺陷，因为它们没有考虑来自监管和能源改革的“促进增长的意外之喜”以及美国贸易赤字急剧收缩所带来额外收益。


Indeed, the Navarro-Ross analysis attributes fully 73% of the growth-inducing revenue windfall of Trumponomics to a massive improvement in the overall trade balance over the next decade.

事实上，纳瓦罗-罗斯的分析认为，将特朗普经济学所带来的促进增长的收入意外之喜的整整73%归因于未来十年间总体贸易平衡的大幅改善。


Yet, as stressed above, barring a miraculous surge in national saving, this is highly dubious.

但是，如上文所强调的，如果国民储蓄不出现巨大增长，这一前景非常可疑。


Creative accounting, long a staple of supply-side economics, has never been more imaginative.

创造性会计 — — 供给侧经济学的长期招牌性行为 — — 也不敢这么想。


Therein lies one of the most glaring disconnects of Trumponomics.

这就引出了特朗普经济学最刺眼的逻辑混乱。


Getting tough on trade at a time when national saving is about to come under ever-greater pressure simply doesn’t add up.

在国民储蓄即将承受前所未有的压力的档口收紧贸易绝对是无济于事的。


Even the most conservative estimates of the federal budget deficit suggest that the already-depressed net national saving rate could re-enter negative territory at some point in the 2018-2019 period.

即使是最保守的联邦预算赤字估计也认为，已经饱受抑制的净国民储蓄率可能在2018—2019年间的某个时点重新滑入负区间。


That would put renewed pressure on the current-account and trade deficits, making it extremely difficult to reverse the loss of jobs and income that politicians are quick to blame on America’s trading partners.

这将给经常项目和贸易赤字造成新的压力，使扭转就业和收入损失 — — 政客马上就会将它归咎于美国的贸易伙伴 — — 变得极其困难。


Ironically, in the coming era of negative saving, the US will find itself increasingly dependent on surplus saving from abroad.

讽刺的是，在即将到来的负储蓄时代，美国将越来越依赖来自海外的盈余储蓄。


If the Trump administration takes aim at major foreign lenders – namely, China – its strategy could quickly backfire.

如果特朗普政府将目标对准主要外国贷款人 — — 即中国 — — 其战略可能很快会适得其反。


At a minimum, there could be an adverse impact on the terms by which America borrows from abroad; that could mean higher interest rates – hints of which are already evident – and ultimately downward pressure on the dollar.

至少美国海外借贷条件将受到消极影响；这可能意味着利率升高 — — 其迹象已经十分明显 — — 最终则会令美元承受贬值压力。


And, of course, there is the worst-case scenario of an escalating global trade war.

当然，最坏情形是全球贸易战升级。


Protectionism, anemic saving, and deficit spending make for an especially toxic cocktail.

保护主义、储蓄不足和赤字支出形成了一个极其有害的组合。


Under Trumponomics, it will be exceedingly difficult to make America great again.

在特朗普经济学统治下，让美国重新伟大将难于上青天。


A Clarion Call for Emerging Markets

新兴市场的号角


ITHACA – With 2012 underway, it is worth reflecting on how a decade of strong economic growth in emerging markets led to last year’s resounding political transformations.

伊萨卡—步入2012年之际，我们值得思考一下新兴市场的十年强劲经济增长是如何引发去年波涛汹涌的政治转型的。


From the dramatic events in the Middle East, to the groundswell of support for the anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare in India, leaders in emerging markets are getting a clear message from the streets that growth is not everything.

从中东的戏剧性事件，到印度人民对安纳·哈扎尔（Anna Hazare）反腐行动山呼海啸的支持，街头运动站在向新兴市场的领导人传递一个清晰的信号，光有增长是不够的。


They ignore this message at their peril.

忽视这个信号必将付出代价。


Emerging-market economies delivered solid growth during the 2000’s, and even survived the global financial crisis without a growth collapse.

21世纪的第一个十年，新兴市场经济体稳步增长，甚至连全球金融危机都没有阻止它们。


But the specter of rising corruption is compromising the legitimacy of their economic gains and eroding support for further reforms needed to sustain their growth momentum.

但伴随着经济利益一同出现的是腐败横行，而腐败横行动摇着人们对维持增长势头所必须的深入改革的支持。


Corruption takes many forms, but, in emerging markets, a combination of factors has turned it into a cancer that ultimately topples regimes.

腐败有多种形式，但是，在新兴市场，多种因素的合力正在形成最终颠覆现有体制的癌症。


Relentless low-level corruption is a major irritant for poor people in many of these countries; indeed, it limits their access to the social services and basic government functions that they often depend upon for their very survival.

在这些国家中，肆无忌惮的低层次腐败激怒着贫困人口；事实上，低层次腐败让贫困人口无法获得他们赖以生存的社会服务和基本政府功能。


Another type of corruption involves siphoning enormous sums of money from large-scale projects.

另一种腐败是从大规模项目中捞取巨额回扣。


In India, for example, the government lost as much as $30-40 billion of much-needed revenue when coveted band spectrum was sold through a rigged auction.

比如，在印度，供不应求的频谱通过拍卖发售，而拍卖是被操纵的，政府因此要损失高达300—400亿美元的收入。


For ordinary people, large-scale corruption is less visible, because, while the sums involved are mind-boggling, the costs are not as directly felt as they are in the case of lower-level graft.

对普通民众来说，大规模腐败不一定看得见，因为，尽管涉案数量大到令人咋舌，但其成本并不像低层次腐败那样能让他们直接感受到。


But the perception of this type of mega-corruption has changed as rapid growth has increased inequality.

但随着快速增长加剧了不平等性，人们对这类大规模腐败的感知也发生了变化。


In countries like China and India, rapid economic growth has lifted a huge number of people out of poverty.

在中国和印度等国家，快速的经济增长让大量人民摆脱了贫困。


But the fruits of globalization and rapid growth have not been evenly shared – the rich become super-rich, even as a large fraction of the population remains destitute.

但全球化和快速增长带来的好处并不是均匀分布的，富人变得愈加富有了，而大部分人民仍在贫困状态中挣扎。


Rising income inequality is hardly limited to emerging markets, but their combination of open corruption and pervasive inequities creates a toxic brew that is undermining support for reforms that would strengthen and consolidate their economic gains.

收入不平等恶化的问题绝不仅限于新兴市场，但公开腐败和普遍的不公相结合就造成了一股暗流，破坏了人们对增进和巩固经济利益所需要的改革的支持。


In many emerging markets, a lack of political freedom adds to the combustible mix.

在许多新兴市场国家，缺乏政治自由在给问题火上浇油。


The combination of corruption, inequality, and political repression builds up enormous pressure, and there are no institutional channels through which to release it.

腐败、不公加上政治压迫造成了巨大的压力，而且没有发泄这种压力的制度性渠道。


But freer political regimes are not a panacea.

但政治自由也不是万灵丹。


In a democracy like India’s, the politically well-connected benefit from skewed growth, thus increasing the resentment of those left behind.

在印度这样的民主国家，在政治上有关系者从有缺陷的增长中捞到了巨大的好处，而没有捞到好处者怨声载道。


The opportunity to “throw the rascals out” in each election cycle helps to let off some steam, but it does not resolve the problems that are generating it.

在每个选举周期中，人民都有一次“让混蛋滚蛋”的机会，这在一定程度上减轻了压力，但并没有根除造成这一现象的问题。


It is difficult to predict what triggers popular protest, but economic factors are key.

很难预测什么会触发群众游行，但经济因素是关键的。


For example, rising food prices tend to hurt the poor, especially the urban poor, who spend a large share of their income on food; unlike agricultural workers, they receive none of the benefits of higher food prices.

比如，食品价格上涨会伤害贫民，特别是城市贫民，他们收入中的一大块都花在了视频上；而与农村劳动力不同，他们不能从食品价格上涨中获益。


With swelling urban populations, it will become increasingly difficult to keep a lid on these pressures.

随着城市人口的膨胀，减轻他们的压力将变得越来越困难。


Some governments have reacted to recent events with political repression, information blackouts, or a combination of authoritarian measures.

有的国家对最近发生的事件的反应是政治压迫、信息封锁或多种威权措施的综合。


China, for example, blocked media coverage of the Egyptian protests.

比如，中国就屏蔽了关于埃及示威的媒体报道。


The Arab Spring, however, reveals the fragility of repressive political regimes that try to maintain their legitimacy by limiting information flows.

但是，阿拉伯之春显示了高压政治体制的脆弱，通过限制信息流动维持统治的合法性是行不通的。


The main lesson for dynamic emerging-market countries is that an exclusive focus on GDP growth may ultimately not be good for economic and political stability.

充满活力的新兴市场国家给我们的主要教训是，只关注GDP增长最终可能不利于经济和政治稳定。


Even with rapid increases in national income, if these countries’ leaders do not distribute the benefits fairly, they will become vulnerable to popular discontent.

尽管国民收入有了快速增加，但如果领导人不能公平地分配经济增长到来的好处，他们就很容易受到群众的反对。


Tackling corruption is critical to improving long-term growth and maintaining social stability.

处理腐败是改善长期增长、维持社会稳定的关键。


These economies need measures that help to keep the poor out of poverty traps, and that give them realistic opportunities to improve their economic well-being.

这些国家需要采取措施助贫民摆脱贫困陷阱，给他们现实的机会改善其经济福利。


Such steps include broadening financial markets to give more people access to credit and investment, strengthening social safety nets to protect the economically vulnerable, and improving educational access and quality.

这些措施包括扩大金融市场，让更多的人能够获得信用和投资；增强社会安全网以保护经济弱势群体；以及增加教育的可获得性和平等性。


These lessons apply equally to advanced economies, which also suffer from rising inequality and subtle forms of corruption.

这些教训对发达经济体同样有效，因为发达经济体也在遭受不平等性恶化和腐败潜规则的问题。


But, for those wealthy economies, restoring decent growth is now the major priority.

但是，对富国来说，重建漂亮的经济增长才是当务之急。


Emerging markets have a golden opportunity to build on their economic gains and lock in growth and stability by tackling deep-seated problems like corruption.

新兴市场正面临着黄金机会，可以通过解决腐败等深层次问题来最大程度地汲取经济利益、锁定增长和稳定。


As the past year’s events have shown, the costs of inaction could be calamitous.

去年发生的一系列事件表明，不作为的代价是沉重的。


A Climate Deal is Not Enough

仅一个气候协议还不足够


AMSTERDAM – During the COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen, world leaders have been negotiating the future of our planet. All the signs suggest that they are unlikely to sign a global climate treaty.

阿姆斯特丹 — —


The politicians, civil servants, and other participants at the Copenhagen summit have mainly been bombarding each other with numbers.

在本次哥本哈根气候大会上，世界各国的领导人们正在讨论我们未来的命运。


Figures on how much various countries should reduce CO2 emissions, the amount of money they should put up in coming years, the exact nature of their responsibilities, how much temperature increase Earth will be able to endure, and how long we can continue to wait.

所有迹象都显示，他们不可能签署一个全球性的气候条约。 不同的观点，不同的工业化进程，不同的政治联盟，各国之间彼此有太多的分歧。


These are all very important issues.

会议期间，政客，公务员和其他参会者各自引用不同的数字相互攻击。


But the mere figures are simply not enough. A different approach to the problem of climate change is needed.

这些数字包括：不同减排的标准，应该投入的资金，目前各国准确的排放量，地球所能承受的温度升幅，以及我们还能等待多久。


The climate issue can only be solved on the basis of shared, deeply felt ethical principles.

这些都是重要的话题，但光有数字还不足够。


Humanity has reached a critical moment in Earth’s history, at which peoples and nations will have to recognize their solidarity – with each other and with the Earth – and start acting upon it.

我们应该另辟蹊径，找到解决气候问题的新方法。


Similar to the way world leaders adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration in September 2000, and embraced the resulting Millennium Development Goals, today’s climate negotiators will have to commit themselves to creating a basis of shared fundamental ethical principles.

只有大家深深感到，对社会责任拥有共同承担的义务，气候问题才能解决。 人类已经走到了一个历史关键时刻，所有的国家和民众必须团结起来 — — 一起为我们的地球做些什么。


Such a basis is not hard to find.

首先，我们应该接受2000年9月的联合国千年宣言，实现当时制定的共同发展目标。 这些的共同点并不难找。


Its inspiration can be the Earth Charter, which, launched in 2000, was initiated by, among others, former USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev and Wangari Mathaai, who received the 2004 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in the Green Belt Movement, a pan-African tree-planting initiative.

由前苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫和旺加里‧马塔伊教授等发起的地球宪章就是很好的例子。 旺加里‧马塔伊积极发起了名为“绿带运动”的非洲植树活动，2004年因此获得诺贝尔和平奖。


The climate problem does not stop at borders.

气候问题不分国界。


In the next few decades, a low-lying country like the Netherlands will need to invest billions of euros to intensify its age-old struggle against rising water.

在今后的几十年里，一些低海拔的国家，例如荷兰，将投资数十亿美元，用于应对多年以来不断上涨的海平面。


But in many other countries, the water is already flooding over the dikes, both literally and figuratively.

而对其他一些国家而言，洪水实际行已经淹没了堤坝。 对于那些缺乏资金自救的国家尤其甚之。


Climate change affects particularly those countries that lack the money needed to take adequate measures against rising sea levels, persistent droughts, or devastating storms, even though they had nothing to do with the primary cause of these problems – industrialization in the developed countries.

它们无法应对不断上涨的海平面，持续的干旱和灾难性的风暴。 而这些国家往往不是工业化国家，无端成了气候问题的无辜受害者。


Apart from the necessary, often infrastructural adaptations to survive the effects of climate change, enormous efforts to prevent even worse things from happening are required.

除此之外，基础设施的改进等其他重大的举措也都十分必要。


Large investments in forestation, agriculture, and energy supply are called for.

我们必须在农林业和能源开发上投入巨额资金。


In devising solutions, the role of women should be the main focus.

妇女应该在其中担当重要角色。


Women are often the first people who have to address the problem of gaining access to natural resources, and they are capable of playing a major role as pioneers in finding solutions to climate change and the way humankind should adapt to it.

女性通常首先发现这些自然界问题，她们有能力承担起领导角色，找到解决人类生存问题的良方。


In the short term, the world should become a sustainable global society of low CO2 emitters.

简而言之，未来的世界应该是低碳可持续发展的社会。


This is a mission for all humankind, in which patriotic feelings and thinking in terms of power blocs have no place.

这是我们全人类的任务，狭隘的爱国主义和国家联盟的思维在这里没有市场。


The pursuit of a sustainable global society of low CO2 emitters requires a tremendous effort.

要想达到低碳可持续发展的社会，我们还需��做出巨大的努力。


Precisely for this reason, it also requires a broadly shared ethical basis.

这就要求我们有着共同的道德基础。


This would guide the negotiating parties in such a way that they look not only for solutions to a part of the problem, but first and foremost at a comprehensive solution to the entire problem.

这样才能避免片面的理解，找到一个对所有问题的全面性的解决方法。


The climate change issue is too important to be left in the care of politicians.

气候问题已不仅仅是政治领袖的事情。


In Copenhagen, it is therefore imperative that not only nation states, but the business community and citizens combine their efforts to save our planet’s climate. That is not only a scientific necessity; it is an ethical imperative.

在哥本哈根，不仅在国家层面，商界和市民社会也应该一起都行动起来，共同拯救我们的地球，这不仅仅是学术讨论，而是关乎道德层面的问题。


A Communist Party without Communism

没有共产主义的共产党


PRINCETON – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s anointment of Alexander Medvedev to succeed him in what is supposed to be a democratic presidential election next March shows that Russia’s leaders have not changed a whit.

普林斯顿 - - 俄国总统普京钦点梅德韦捷夫在明年三月本应民主的总统选举后继承总统职位，这标明俄国领导人并未做出任何改变。


It looks increasingly likely that, as under Leonid Brezhnev, we will see the same names in the news for decades to come.

现在看来越发可能我们将会在今后几十年中见到同样的名字，正如在伯列日涅夫统治时期一样。


According to Gleb Pavlovsky, the Putin regime’s leading ideologist, the current Russian system is perfect in all respects but one: it doesn’t know its enemies.

普京政权的首席意识形态官员巴普洛夫斯基说，俄国目前的体制除了不知道其敌人是谁意外在各方面都完美无缺。


Indeed, it seems as if everyone in the Kremlin is reading Carl Schmitt, the Nazi legal theorist who taught that naming your enemy is the central mission of politics.

确实，看起来克里姆林宫的每个人都在阅读纳粹法学家施密特的著作。 施密特教诲说，指出你的敌人是政治的中心使命。


In the spirit of Schmitt, Putin’s men designated a liberal party, the Union of Right Forces, as their ur-enemy.

根据施密特的精神，普京的人马设计了一个自由派政党即右翼力量联盟作为他们的敌人。


Its public meetings were broken up by armed police; its leaders arrested and beaten; Putin called its supporters “coyotes.”

该党的公开集会被武装警察驱散；其领导人被捕和遭到殴打；普京把它的支持者们称为“小狼 ” 。


What is surprising is that this aggressive behavior occurred in response to no visible danger.

令人惊讶的是，这一咄咄逼人的举动是在没有可以见到的危险的情况下发生的。


Oil prices are soaring, as are Putin’s approval ratings.

普京的支持率就像石油价格一样在上涨。


His appointees control everything that matters, from Gazprom to the Central Electoral Committee.

他所任命的官员控制所有重要部门，从俄国天然气石油公司到中央选举委员会。


Since the pacification of Chechnya with violence and subsidies, the incarceration or emigration of a few financially viable opponents, and the massive “social investments” of recent years, which, under Medvedev’s personal supervision, have bribed the population, no credible force can seriously challenge Putin’s men.

近年来用暴力和补贴平息车臣叛乱，拘捕和驱逐几个资金不菲的反对者并且最近几年在巴普洛夫斯基亲自监督下进行大幅度“社会投资 ” 。 这一投资收买了俄国人民，没有令人信服的力量可以严重挑战普京的人马。


Yet their regime is in crisis, and they know it.

但是他们的政权处于危机之中，而且他们也知道这一点。


Russia’s economy is more dependent on gas and oil than ever before.

俄国经济现在比以往更为依赖于天然气和石油。


Military reform has been reversed.

军事改革已经逆转。


Despite increasing incomes, Russians are less educated and less healthy than they were when Putin came to power; they still die at a shockingly young age.

尽管收入增加，俄国人的教育和健康都不如普京刚刚掌权之时；他们依旧过早去世。


Russian involvement in world affairs is tainted by poison and corruption.

俄国参与世界事务也是充斥着敌视和腐败。


State monopolies undo what private businesses created.

国家垄断把私有经济创造的东西化为乌有。


With more money, ill-educated bureaucrats hire more ill-educated bureaucrats; as a result, the regime fails to rule the country.

教育水平低下的官僚们有了更多的钱就任用更多的没文化的官僚。 结果，这一政权无法治理国家。


The country is unruly, and its rulers know it.

俄国混乱不堪，而其统治者们知道这一点。


So they panic.

所以他们就紧张不安。


Putin’s aim was to subject all power to the control of Russia’s security forces.

普京的目标是把所有的权力都归于俄国安全力量的控制之下。


His generation of KGB officers watched the collapse of the Communist Party and all the governmental bodies that it “directed and controlled,” including the KGB.

他的时代的克格勃官员目睹了共产党和及其“指导和控制”的所有政府机关的崩溃，包括克格勃在内。


Under Putin, the security service has had its revenge.

在普京统治下，安全力量进行报复。


Its people have become powerful, arrogant, and enormously rich.

它们的人马变得权力庞大、自负以及巨富。


They have also become disobedient.

他们也变得不停从调遣。


In 2004, General Viktor Cherkesov, then Putin’s representative in northwest Russia, published an essay that glorified the KGB as the only unspoiled authority in a corrupted country.

在2004年，当时担任普京驻俄国西北方代表的切尔克索夫将军发表文章，把克格勃美化成为腐败国家中唯一清廉的权力部门。


This essay, more than anything else, defined Putin’s second term.

这一文章要比任何东西都要确定普京的第二任期的性质。


In October 2007, Cherkesov (now chief of one of the most obscure and powerful services, the Federal Anti-Drug Administration) published another essay in which he lamented his colleagues’ degradation: warriors had turned into traders, he complained.

2007年10月，切尔克索夫(现在是最为不为人所知以及权力强大的部门联邦反毒品局局长)发表了另一篇文章，痛斥其同僚的堕落。 他抱怨说，武士变成了商人。


Earlier, generals from a competing service, the FSB, had arrested Cherkesov’s deputy for “illegal bugging.”

早先，与其争斗的联邦安全局的将军们因“非法窃听”逮捕了切尔克索夫的副手。


In a public gesture of despair, Cherkesov admitted the failure of Putin’s project to reanimate Russian governance by subordinating it to the security services.

切尔克索夫公开表示绝望，承认普京通过把俄国政府置于安全部门控制之下来创新振作政府是失败的。


Cherkesov’s deputy remains in prison.

切尔克索夫的副手还呆在牢里。


Most believe that Putin is unable to intervene in his defense.

大多数人相信普京无力干预为其辩护。


In the absence of Communist Party control, these security officers betrayed their corporate ethic and engaged in horse-trading, applying force when a trade did not go well.

在没有共产党控制的情况下，这些安全官员背叛了他们的企业伦理，参与交易，并且在交易不顺利的时候施加力量。


That this happens to ordinary Russians is clear; what Cherkesov revealed was that Putin’s circle also confronts this situation.

这发生在普通俄国人身上是明显的；切尔克索夫揭露的是普京圈子里的人也对抗这一局面。


What is to be done when ex-KGB warriors turn their swords and bugs against one another?

当以前的克格勃人马自相残杀的时候该怎么办呢？


Cherkesov’s case exemplifies Putin’s nightmare.

切尔克索夫的情况就是普京恶梦的例子。


But if your instincts betray you, you go back to even deeper ones.

但是如果你的本能背叛你，你就会进入更深的本能。


Now that Putin’s people have left their predecessors’ neo-liberal ideas behind and feel disenchanted with the ex-KGB clique, the task is to recreate an omnipresent political party that controls the security services, the administration, business, and much else.

现在，普京的人马已经抛弃了其前任新自由派观点，并且对前克格勃的结党营私感到不满。 现在的任务就是创新组织一个控制安全部门、政府、商界以及更多其他东西的无处不在的政党。


This party will be centralized under personal leadership and will reduce the state to a legal fiction.

这一政党将是个人领导下的集权体系，并且把国家削弱为一个法律虚构而已。


Preaching nationalism, its managers will believe in their universal competence, as opposed to KGB-style professionalism and corporatism.

其主管们灌输民族主义，相信其无所不能，而不是克格勃风格的专业精神和社团主义。


Boris Yeltsin forbade party cells in state-controlled institutions by decree.

叶利钦通过命令禁止政党存在于国家控制机构之中。


Putin’s lawyers will reverse that decision; the party will have cells or committees in every factory, corporation, military unit, university department, etc.

普京的律师们将会推翻这一决定。 政党可以在任何工厂、公司、军事单位、大学院系等等拥有组织或者委员会。


Integrated by the leader’s charisma and party discipline, party members will direct and unify the desolated country.

党员将在领导人魅力和党纪的融合下指导和团结这一荒凉的国家。


This is Putin’s plan.

这就是普京的计划。


Like former Soviet leader Yuri Andropov, the only other KGB man to rule Russia, Putin will become the party’s general secretary.

唯一的另一个统治俄国的克格勃是安德罗波夫。 普京像���一样将成为该党的总书记。


As in the Soviet era, state and governmental officials will be reduced to party ciphers – the role that President Medvedev will play under General Secretary Putin.

就像在苏联时期一样，国家和政府官员将会被变成党的暗号，这就是梅德韦捷夫总统在普京总书记领导下所扮演的角色。


And, of course, being General Secretary carries no constitutional term limit.

而且当然，总书记没有任期限制。


In the end, Putin has what history left him: not ideas, just a faction yearning to consolidate its grip on power.

最后，普京有的只是历史留给他的东西。 没有观念，只有渴望巩固权势的派系。


Lenin and Trotsky needed a party to make their ideology a reality; Putin and Medvedev are devising an ideology to solidify their party.

列宁和托洛斯基需要一个政党来把他们的意识形态变成现实；普京和梅德韦捷夫则正在设计一个意识形态来巩固其政党。


It is a bizarre ideology.

这是一个奇怪的意识形态。


Accusing warriors of being traders and traders of being thieves, it shuns its Marxist origins.

把武士指责为商人，把商人指责为贼，它抛弃了共产主义本源。


It will subordinate all who really do work – traders, warriors, journalists, and others – to party ideologues whose sole job is to search for enemies.

它将把所有作实际工作的人，也就是商人、武士、记者以及其他人统统置于政党理论家之下，而这些理论家唯一的工作就是寻找敌人。


A Confederal Solution for Palestine

巴勒斯坦问题的联邦制解决方案


LONDON – Last month, while in New York City, I happened to be staying in the same hotel as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

伦敦 — — 上个月在纽约时，我碰巧与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡同住在一家酒店。


To accommodate his security needs, the hotel had been converted into a fortress, much like Israel itself.

为照顾内塔尼亚胡的安全需要，这家酒店几乎被武装成一座堡垒，这与以色列本身颇有几份相似之处。


Netanyahu was in the United States for yet another round of Middle East peace talks.

内塔尼亚胡要在美国参加另一轮中东和平谈判。


The US offered various sweeteners to induce Israel to freeze its West Bank settlement construction for another 90 days.

美国开出种种优惠条件，目的是诱使以色列再冻结西岸定居点的建设九十天。


The Israelis refused; another impasse was reached.

以色列拒绝合作，谈判再度陷入僵持局面。


What, then, might be the prospects of a negotiated peace between two peoples with claims to the same land?

那么，对同一块土地提出领土要求的两群人究竟有着怎样的谈判前景？


The answer is: very poor.

答案只有一个： 谈判前景极其黯淡。


All peace efforts since the Oslo accords of 1993 have been based on the “two-state solution,” according to which Israel is supposed to turn over the occupied territories to a Palestinian state, the Palestinians are supposed to renounce any claims on the Jewish state, and everyone is supposed to live happily ever after.

1993年《奥斯陆协议》后所有的和平努力都以“两国制”为前提，在这样的前提下，以色列应该向巴勒斯坦国归还被占领土，而巴勒斯坦国则应承认犹太国家的主权，而后双方应该从此过上幸福的生活。


A negotiated “land for peace” solution still remains official Western doctrine.

通过谈判达成“以土地换和平”协议迄今仍是西方的主流理论。


As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put it in a recent speech, “a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace” has to be based on “two states for two peoples.”

正如美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿在最近一次讲话中提到的那样 ， “ 为两国人民分别建国”是实现“公正、持久、全面和平”的基础。


Meanwhile, the two main parties to the dispute, Palestine and Israel, are searching for unilateral alternatives to the stymied “peace process.”

与此同时，中东冲突的两大主体巴勒斯坦和以色列都在不停寻找阻碍“和平进程”的单方解决方案。


The Palestinians are pushing for international recognition of their statehood, while the Israelis are using their settlement policy to preempt a Palestinian state.

巴勒斯坦人不断要求国际社会承认其独立国家地位，而以色列则意图借助定居点政策抢先占领巴勒斯坦。


Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said that, if the latest peace talks collapse, he will press for UN recognition of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.

巴勒斯坦总统马哈茂德·阿巴斯已经表示，如果最近一次和谈失败，他将敦促联合国以1967年边界为基础承认巴勒斯坦国。


This month, Brazil and Argentina recognized “Palestine,” and a cascade of Latin American countries is expected to follow.

巴西和阿根廷这个月承认了“巴勒斯坦 ” ， 预计将引发一连串拉美国家的纷纷仿效。


Abbas is now setting his sights on Europe, and would ask Turkey to serve as a go-between.

阿巴斯现在将目光钉住欧洲，并将要求土耳其扮演中间人的角色。


The game is to use international recognition of an independent Palestinian state to pressure the US to retreat from its almost unconditional support for Israeli policy.

其目的是利用国际舆论对独立巴勒斯坦国的承认向美国施压，迫使其改变几乎无条件支持以色列的政策。


Israel’s main concern continues to be security.

安全问题仍是以色列主要的关注目标。


The official Western doctrine is that Israel’s long-term security depends on the success of the “peace process.”

主流的西方理论仍然是以色列的长期安全取决于“和平进程”能否成功。


In practice, Israel has been taking other measures to secure its future.

事实上，以色列已经为保证未来安全采取了很多其他举措。


Media attention has been focused on the “security wall,” which has certainly succeeded in reducing the level of violence.

其中最受媒体关注的非“安全墙”莫属，这种方法确实有效减轻了暴力活动。


But, to the hawks who now control Israeli politics, the key to Israel’s security depends on depth of defense, for which expansion of the settlements is indispensable.

但在目前把持以色列政局的鹰派人物看来，以色列安全与否直接取决于防御深度，因此扩建定居点成为必不可少的一步。


The hawks’ recipe for survival is threefold: continued military and economic support from the US, defensible frontiers through a strategic settlement program, and the carve-up of the Palestinian West Bank into disconnected bantustans, or subordinate authorities, incapable of concerted opposition to Israeli policy.

鹰派提出了层层推进的三重生存计划： 继续争取美国的军事和经济支持、借助战略定居点计划修建可防御边界、以及将巴勒斯坦西岸地区割裂成互不相连的班图斯坦，或者是无力联合反对以色列政策的孤立政权。


Thus, while Abbas seeks to create a new “fact on the ground” by drumming up international support for a Palestinian state, Israel aims to trump him by making such a state unviable.

于是，在阿巴斯争取对巴勒斯坦国的国际支持，力求制造“既成事实”的同时，以色列的克敌之道则是釜底抽薪，让建立巴勒斯坦国的愿望不可能实现。


The ideal alternative to both strategies is a peace process that aims not to create two states, but rather to establish the political and economic basis for a single confederal state.

不追求两个国家、而建立拥有统一政治经济制度的联邦制国家才是上述两种战略的理想替代方案。


Indeed, the two-state solution was always an illusion.

事实上，分别建国的解决办法从来都无法实现。


There was never enough land to satisfy the passionate possessiveness of all those with claims to it.

有限的土地资源从来无法满足各方强烈的占有��愿。


And, over time, Israeli settler disengagement from the West Bank and East Jerusalem has become just as impossible as any attempt by Israel to expel its remaining Arabs.

而且，随着时间一点一滴的流逝，让以色列定居者从西岸和东耶路撒冷地区撤离和从该地区驱逐剩余阿拉伯人的企图都已经无法实现。


Israeli Jews are bound to stay in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and Israeli Arabs are bound to stay in Israel proper.

以色列犹太人注定要待在西岸和东耶路撒冷，而以色列阿拉伯人也注定要在以色列的本土上繁衍。


These are the “facts on the ground” that doom Palestinian hopes for a sovereign Palestinian state no less than Israeli hopes for a wholly Jewish state.

这就是“不得不面对的现实 ” ， 它打破了巴勒斯坦人独立建国的希望，而以色列人建立纯粹犹太国家的梦想也同样因此而破灭。


Moreover, land for peace never made sense from an economic point of view.

此外，从经济的角度讲，以土地换和平从来就是行不通的解决方案。


If compensation for wrongs to the Palestinians was to be the guiding principle, there were always better ways of going about it than to found a rickety, poverty-ridden new country dependent on foreign aid.

如果真的以补偿巴勒斯坦人所受的损失为解决问题的基本原则，那么总有比成立仰仗外国援助的贫困国家更好的办法来解决这场巴以冲突。


Most people have forgotten that the Paris Protocols of April 1994 established a customs union between Israel and the occupied territories, with a joint Economic Council to adjudicate trade disputes.

绝大多数人已经忘记1994年4月签订的《巴黎协议》建立了以色列和被占领土关税同盟，并规定由联合经济委员会负责对贸易纠纷做出裁决。


The free movement of goods, labor, and capital between the two parts could have given a tremendous economic boost to Palestinian GDP.

货物、劳工和资金的自由流动可以在很大程度上推动巴勒斯坦国内生产总值的发展。


It could also have been the basis of a confederal state, whose Palestinian part would have benefited from the West Bank settlers’ productivity and taxes.

这也可以成为建立联邦制国家的基础，西岸定居者的生产和纳税会帮助联邦制度下的巴勒斯坦方面。


But this benign prospect was undermined by the violence needed to maintain the Jewish state and enable the emergence of a Palestinian one.

但如此美好的前景却遭到以保护犹太国、成立巴勒斯坦国为目的的暴力的无情破坏。


The official view remains that only an internationally guaranteed two-state settlement will bring about the security needed for the economic revival of the Palestinian territories.

主流观点仍然坚持只有国际社会担保的两国解决方案才能确保巴勒斯坦地区经济复苏所必不可少的安全。


But it is just possible that unilateral Israeli policy, implicitly backed by the US, will create interim conditions of peace that are sufficient for economic growth to cool Palestinian nationalism.

但我们必须承认这种可能性，即受到美国暗中支持的以色列单边政策可以创造和平发展经济的临时条件，而经济的发展则能够熄灭巴勒斯坦民族主义的火焰。


The Palestinian cause is not the overriding preoccupation of even the Arab states, so Netanyahu’s strategy of defense in depth stands a better chance of success than Abbas’s pursuit of statehood through international recognition.

巴勒斯坦解放事业甚至谈不上阿拉伯国家压倒一切的当务之急，因此内塔尼亚胡的深度防御策略比阿巴斯博取国际承认的建国策略取得成功的机会更大。


Netanyahu’s project is not moral.

内塔尼亚胡的计划不合乎道德原则。


But that doesn’t mean that it won’t work, at least for a time.

但这并不意味着这项计划不会取得至少某种短期效果。


A Confederation for Kosovo

为科索沃建立邦联


Time is running out in Kosovo.

留给科索沃的时间已经越来越少了。


If a United Nations-backed settlement is not reached by early December, the province’s majority Albanian population is likely to declare independence unilaterally – a move that the United States has announced it may support.

如果一项由联合国支持的解决方案在十二月初不能出台，那么在这个省占多数的阿尔巴尼亚族很可能会单方面宣布独立。 美国曾表示会支持这一举动。


That would be a disastrous step.

那将是一个灾难性的举动。


Russia would be furious, because it fears that Kosovo’s secession – whether or not it is internationally recognized – might fuel separatist movements in the former Soviet empire.

俄罗斯会震怒，因为它担心科索沃一旦分离，不管是否为国际所承认，都会进一步引发前苏联帝国内部主张独立的运动。


Serbia is even more strongly opposed.

塞尔维亚甚至会更激烈地表示反对。


Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo, has said that his country might use force to maintain its sovereignty.

塞尔维亚负责科索沃问题的国务秘书普罗洛科维奇曾表示他的国家可能会动用武力来维护他的主权。


Even if the government hesitates, ultranationalist groups might push Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica to send in troops: the current UN presence in Kosovo is very thin (only 40 “military observers” and 2,116 policemen) but the stationing of 15,000 NATO troops could make any armed clash very dangerous.

即便政府会在这个问题上犹豫不决，极端民族主义团体也可能会迫使总理科什图尼察派出军队。 联合国目前在科索沃的军事力量非常薄弱（只有40个“军事观察员”和2116名警察 ） ， 但是在那里驻扎15000名北约军队也许会使任何的武装冲突变得非常危险。


After eight years of international administration, Kosovo’s Albanian majority has tasted freedom and is eager for full independence.

在经过八年的国际管制后，科索沃占据多数的阿尔巴尼亚族已经尝到了自由的味道，并且渴望完全独立。


But Serbia claims that the province remains an essential part of its historical and cultural tradition.

但是塞尔维亚宣称，这个省从历史和文化传统上都是它的一个重要部分。


Moreover, independence would not be accepted by the Serbian public, which has already watched in dismay as “Great Serbia” has been gradually whittled away, most recently with the secession of Montenegro.

此外，独立也不能为塞尔维亚的公众所接受，他们已经眼睁睁地看着“大塞尔维亚”一点点地在缩小，而最近是黑山共和国分离。


Serbia is prepared to concede only “enhanced autonomy” to Kosovo, and some capacity to enter into international agreements.

塞尔维亚已经准备给予科索沃只会“得到增强的自治权 ” ， 以及部分签定国际协约的地位。


Yet, while the two parties now seem irreconcilable, it is not too late for compromise.

然而，尽管这两方看上去似乎无法调和，要取得妥协现在还为时不晚。


But this is possible only by resuscitating – and updating – an old institution of the international community: a confederation of states.

但是这只有通过复苏以及更新一个国际社会的旧的机制，也就是多国邦联才有可能实现。


By means of a binding UN Security Council resolution, Kosovo could be granted full and exclusive authority over its citizens and territory, as well as limited capacity for action on the international scene.

通过有约束力的联合国安理会决议，科索沃可以被授予对其公民和领土全面和唯一的管辖权，以及在国际层面采取行动的有限权力。


It could be authorized to enter into trade agreements as well as agreements concerning individuals (for example, admission and circulation of foreigners, or extradition), plus the right to seek admission to the UN (which does not require full sovereignty and independence).

可以允许其签署贸易协议以及与个人相关的协议（比如，允许外国人入境及在其境内活动，或者引渡 ） ， 以及寻求加入联合国的权利（联合国并不要求完全的主权和独立 ） 。


Kosovo would thus gain some essential trappings of statehood.

科索沃将因此获得某些表明国家地位的重要外部标志。


However, a decision-making body consisting of delegates from Kosovo, Serbia, and the European Union would be given full authority over major foreign policy issues (for example, alliances and relations with international economic institutions), defence, borders (in case Kosovo wished to join with Albania), and the treatment of Kosovo’s Serbian minority.

然而，一个由科索沃、塞尔维亚和欧盟代表组成的决策机构将全权处理重大的外交政策事宜（比如，与国际经济组织的结盟及关系 ） 、 防务、边界（如果科索沃想加入阿尔巴尼亚的话）以及处理科索沃境内塞尔维亚少数民族的问题。


As a result, Kosovo and Serbia would constitute two distinct international subjects, bound by a confederation hinging on a common decision-making body.

其结果是，科索沃和塞尔维亚将组成两个不同的国际主体，捆绑在由一个共同决策机构将其连接起来的邦联体下。


Of course, this confederation would be asymmetrical, because the Serbian government’s sovereignty over the rest of Serbia would remain intact and unlimited, whereas the Kosovar government’s “sovereignty” over Kosovo would be restrained.

当然，这个同盟体是不对称的，因为塞尔维亚政府对塞尔维亚其他部分的主权不会受到影响和限制，而科索沃政府对科索沃的“主权”会受到约束。


To avoid one of the two parties getting the upper hand and imposing arbitrary decisions, the common decision-making body should consist of four Serbian delegates, two Kosovar delegates, and three representatives of the EU, thus requiring both sides to gain the support of the European delegates.

为避免两方的任何一方占据上风而强行通过专横的决定，这个共同决策机构将由四名来自塞尔维亚的代表、两名来自科索沃的代表和三名来自欧盟的代表组成，这样就需要两方都要获得欧盟代表的支持。


In addition, the EU should create a small but effective military force (say, 5,000 troops) to back up the common body’s decisions.

此外，欧盟应该建立一支小但却有效的军事力量（比如说，5000人的部队）来支持共同决策机构所做出的决定。


As with any compromise, the contending parties would both gain and lose from this arrangement.

像任何妥协一样，参与的各方在这一安排中都会有所得也有所失。


Serbia would save face, and would continue to have a say on crucial matters concerning Kosovo, including the treatment of the Serbian minority.

塞尔维亚会保全脸面，并且将继续对有关科索沃的重大问题、包括科索沃的塞尔维亚少数民族的问题拥有话语权。


Kosovo would acquire limited independence, with its status rising from a province of a sovereign state to an international subject capable of entering into certain agreements with other states and even joining the UN.

科索沃会获得有限的独立，它的地位将从一个主权国家的省上升到一个能够与其他国家签署某种协定、甚至加入联合国的国际主体。


The EU would benefit as well, by contributing to the stabilization of a highly volatile area.

通过给一个高度动荡的地区注入稳定，欧盟也会同样从中受益。


Subsequently, the EU would monitor Kosovo and prevent any dispute that might turn violent.

其结果是，欧盟将会监管科索沃，并且防止任何可能会引发暴乱的争端发生。


A final advantage of this solution is that it would be temporary.

这一解决方案的最后一点好处是它会是临时性的。


Historically, confederations sooner or later either become federations (as occurred in the US, Germany, and Switzerland) or, pushed by centrifugal forces, split up (as with the United Arab Republic, established in 1958, which split three years later into Egypt and Syria).

在历史上，邦联早晚都会变成联邦（就像在美国、德国和瑞士发生的那样 ） ， 或者在离心力的推动下，分裂开（就像1958年建立的阿拉伯联合共和国，它在三年后分裂成了埃及和叙利亚 ） 。


The confederation I advocate would thus constitute an intermediate stage (lasting five or ten years), at the end of which Kosovo is likely to become fully independent.

我所提倡的这个邦联因此将是一个中间步骤（延续5到10年时间 ） ， 在这一阶段最后科索沃可能会完全独立。