After the recent summit, Abe revealed that Putin now seems to be reneging on a 1956 agreement between Japan and the Soviet Union, which stipulates that the smaller two of the four islands will be returned to Japan after a peace treaty is signed.

最新峰会后，安倍透露普京似乎否1956年日本与苏联签订的协议，该协议规定北方四岛中较小的两个将在日俄缔结和平条约后归还日本。


As it happens, this year marks the 60th anniversary of that joint declaration, which was widely viewed as a breakthrough at the time.

今年是这一联合声明签署60周年，当时，这份声明被广泛视为是一个突破。


The Kremlin is now suggesting that its commitment to fulfilling the declaration was conditional on Japan not joining any security alliance against Russia.

如今，克里姆林宫表示它是否会兑现声明的条件是日本不加入针对俄罗斯的安全联盟。


And Putin has expressed concerns that the 1960 Japan-US Security Treaty would extend to the disputed islands if they were returned, thus allowing the US to establish a military presence there.

普京还表示担心，1960年日美安全条约范围将扩大到归还的两岛，从而美国也能够在那里部署军事设施。


Japan is in no position to address Russia’s concerns.

日本没有为俄罗斯解决担忧的立场。


It cannot opt out of the US-led sanctions regime; and it cannot exempt the disputed Kurils from its security treaty with the US, especially now that it has been urging the US to provide an explicit commitment to defend the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, over which China claims sovereignty.

它不能选择跳出美国领导的制裁；也不能让争议的北方四岛不受日美安全条约的管辖，特别是在如今日本一直在敦促美国就捍卫日本控制、中国主张主权的钓鱼岛做出明确承诺的时候。


Putin, for his part, appears smugly content with his negotiating position.

至于普京，他似乎对他的谈判立场相当满意。


Not only did he arrive almost three hours late to the onsen summit, in keeping with his habit of leaving foreign leaders waiting; he also declined a Japanese government gift – a male companion for his native Japanese Akita dog, which Japan gave him in 2012.

在温泉峰会上，他迟到了三小时，延续了他让外国领导人等他的习惯；还拒绝了日本政府的礼物 — — 为日本2012年送给他的日本秋田犬配一只雄性伴侣。


There is little hope now that Abe will see tangible returns on the political capital he has invested in cultivating Putin.

如今，安倍为讨好普京而掷下的政治资本基本上是打了水漂。


And Japan’s dilemma will only deepen.

而日本的困境反而更加深化了。


US President-elect Donald Trump’s desire to improve relations with Russia may give Abe leeway to continue wooing Putin; but if Russia gets the US in its corner, it won’t need Japan anymore.

美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普准备缓和对俄关系或许有利于安倍继续讨好普京；但如果俄罗斯得到了美国，就再也不需要日本了。


A Berlin Consensus?

柏林共识?


HONG KONG – A recent trip to Berlin brought back memories of an earlier visit in the summer of 1967, when I was a poor student who marveled at the Wall that would divide and devastate an entire society for another two decades.

发自香港 — — 最近的柏林之行令我回想起了自己的上一次到访，那是1967年的夏天，作为一个穷学生的我，在那堵还将继续分割和压抑整个德国社会20多年的高墙前震惊不已。


Berlin today is vibrant and rejuvenated, rebuilt by the German peoples' hard work and sacrifice to unify the country, and an apt setting for the conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), which I was there to attend.

如今在德国人民的艰苦努力以及为统一做出的牺牲之下，柏林早已生机勃勃，重现往日活力，此外新经济思维研究中心（Institute for New Economic Thinking）会议适当的议题设置对此也有贡献，而本人正是来参加这场会议的。


The conference’s theme was “Paradigm Lost,” with more than 300 economists, political scientists, systems analysts, and ecologists gathering to rethink economic and political theory for the challenges and uncertainty posed by growing inequality, rising unemployment, global financial disarray, and climate change.

会议的主题是“范式的失落 ” ， 超过300位经济学家，政治科学家，系统分析者和生态学者齐聚一堂，讨论当今日渐恶化的不平等状况、失业率升高，全球金融紊乱和气候变化等问题所引发的挑战以及不确定性，并重新思考与之对应的经济和政治理论。


Almost everyone agreed that the old paradigm of neoclassical economics was broken, but there was no agreement on what can replace it.

几乎所有与会代表都赞同一点，那就是新古典主义经济学的旧有范式已经失效，但在何种范式可以取而代之这一点上却未能达成共识。


Nobel laureate Amartya Sen attributed the European crisis to four failures – political, economic, social, and intellectual.

诺贝尔经济学奖得主阿马蒂亚·森（Amartya Sen）在会上指出，欧洲的危机源自于四个方面的失效 — — 政治、经济，社会和智力层面。


The global financial crisis, which began in 2007 as a crisis of US subprime lending and has broadened into a European sovereign-debt (and banking) crisis, has raised questions that we cannot answer, owing to over-specialization and fragmentation of knowledge.

这场全球金融危机 — — 始于2007年美国次级贷危机并最终扩大成为欧洲主权债务（及银行）危机 — — 提出了一些我们无法回答的问题，而其原因则是知识的过度专业化和碎片化。


And yet there is no denying that the world has become too intricate for any simple, overarching theory to explain complex economic, technological, demographic, and environmental shifts.

同时也无可否认，我们的世界已经变得极端复杂，以致无法用任何简单且高度概括性的理论去解释在经济、技术，人口构成以及环境方面的所发生的复杂转变。


In particular, the rise of emerging markets has challenged traditional Western deductive and inductive logic.

尤其重要的是，新兴市场的崛起使西方的演绎和归纳逻辑遭到了挑战。


Deductive inference enables us to predict effects if we know the principles (the rule) and the cause.

演绎推理使我们在知道原理（法则）和起因的情况下可以预测出结果。


By inductive reasoning, if we know the cause and effects, we can infer the principles.

而通过使用归纳法，我们则可以在知道前因后果的情况下推断出中间的原理。


Eastern thinking, by contrast, has been abductive, moving from pragmatism to guessing the next steps.

相比之下，东方的思考方式则是溯因式的，从实用主义出发去猜测下一步该如何行动。


Abductive inference is pragmatic, looking only at outcomes, guessing at the rule, and identifying the cause.

溯因推理注重实效，只关注结果，通过结果来猜想原理，再由此确定原因。


Like history, social-scientific theory is written by the victors and shaped by the context and challenges of its time.

以历史为例，社会-科学理论是由胜利者撰写的，同时也受到特定时代背景和当时（社会主要）矛盾的影响。


Free-market thinking evolved from Anglo-Saxon theorists (many from Scotland), who migrated and colonized territories, allowing fortunate individuals to assume that there were no limits to consumption.

自由市场理念演化自盎格鲁-撒克逊理论家（其中许多来自苏格兰 ） ， 他们不断移居和殖民新的地域，让那些拥有财富的个人觉得消费是会无限增长的。


European continental thinking, responding to urbanization and the need for social order, emphasized institutional analysis of political economy.

而欧洲大陆的思想则主要服务于城市化以及对社会秩序的追求，因此强调对政治经济的体制性分析。


Thus, the emergence of neoclassical economics in the nineteenth century was very much influenced by Newtonian and Cartesian physics, moving from qualitative analysis to quantifying human behavior by assuming rational behavior and excluding uncertainty.

因此，新古典主义经济学在19世纪的崛起在很大程度上都是受到了牛顿和笛卡尔流派物理学的影响，从定性分析转向对人类行为的定量分析，假设这些行为都是理性的同时不断对不确定性加以排除。


This “predetermined equilibrium” thinking – reflected in the view that markets always self-correct – led to policy paralysis until the Great Depression, when John Maynard Keynes’s argument for government intervention to address unemployment and output gaps gained traction.

这一“预先设定的均衡”理念 — — 认为市场总能自我纠正 — — 导致了政策瘫痪，直到大萧条来袭，而约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）则因此提出政府应当出手干涉失业问题，而产出与消费之间的差距问题也得到了重视。


By the 1970’s, the neoclassical general-equilibrium school captured Keynesian economics through real-sector models that assumed that “finance is a veil,” thereby becoming blind to financial markets’ destabilizing effects.

到了1970年代，新古典主义总体均衡学派通过一个假设“金融只是一张包装纸”的实体部门模型说服了凯恩斯主义者，并因此令他们对金融市场的不稳定作用一无所知。


Economists like Hyman Minsky, who tried to correct this, were largely ignored as Milton Friedman and others led the profession’s push for free markets and minimal government intervention.

海曼·明斯基（Hyman Minsky）这样的经济学家尝试去纠正这一错误，但当时领导经济学界的是米尔顿·弗里德曼等自由市场和最小政府的鼓吹者，于是明斯基之辈也只能默默无闻了。


But then technology, demographics, and globalization brought dramatic new challenges that the neoclassical approach could not foresee.

但随后出现的科技，人口分布特征和全球化则令新古典经济学派迎来了意料之外的挑战。


Even as the world’s advanced countries over-consumed through leveraging from derivative finance, four billion of the world’s seven billion people began moving to middle-income status, making huge demands on global resources and raising the issue of ecological sustainability.

随着全球发达国家通过金融衍生品提供的杠杆来实现过度消费，世界70亿人口中有40亿开始进入中等收入状态，不但对全球资源造成了巨大需求，也催生了环境生态的可持续发展问题。


New thinking is required to manage these massive and systemic changes, as well as the integration of giants like China and India into the modern world.

我们需要新的思维来应对这些大规模且系统性的变革需要，同时也需要把中国和印度这样的大国整合进入现代世界。


A change of mindset is needed not just in the West, but also in the East.

不但西方需要转换思维，东方也是如此。


In 1987, the historian Ray Huang explained it for China:

为此历史学家黄仁宇早在1987年就针对中国进行了论述：


“As the world enters the modern era, most countries under internal and external pressure need to reconstruct themselves by substituting the mode of governance rooted in agrarian experience with a new set of rules based on commerce.…This is easier said than done.

“随着世界进入现代时期，大多数承受着内部和外部压力的国家都必须对自身进行重建，用基于商业的一套法则来取代原���构建于农业经验之上的管治模式 … … 但这是件知易行难的事。


The renewal process could affect the top and bottom layers, and inevitably it is necessary to recondition the institutional links between them.

整个更新过程将影响到上下两个阶层，并不可避免地需要重新修复两者之间的体制联系。


Comprehensive destruction is often the order; and it may take decades to bring the work to completion.”

全面破坏将成为常态；而且往往需要数十年来完成这项工作。


Using this macro-historical framework, we can see Japanese deflation, European debt, and even the Arab Spring as phases of systemic changes within complex structures that are interacting with one another in a new, multipolar global system.

利用微历史的框架，我们可以看到一个新的，多极化全球体系之中存在着许多不断产生互动的复杂结构，而日本通胀，欧洲债务甚至阿拉伯之春则可被视为这些结构内部某一阶段的系统性变革。


We are witnessing simultaneous global convergence (the narrowing of income, wealth, and knowledge gaps between countries) and local divergence (widening income, wealth, and knowledge gaps within countries).

我们正见证着各种同时进行中的全球收敛现象（各国之间收入，财富和知识差距的不断收窄）以及本地分化现象（各国内部收入，财富和知识差距的不断加大 ） 。


Adaptive systems struggle with order and creativity as they evolve.

适应性系统在演化的过程中会不断在秩序和创新性之间左右摇摆。


As the philosopher Bertrand Russell presciently put it: “Security and justice require centralized governmental control, which must extend to the creation of a world government if it is to be effective.

正如英国哲学家伯特兰·罗素（Bertrand Russell）所预见的那样 ： “ 安全与正义要求集权化的政府控制，而这个系统如果要达到有效的话就势必要扩张成为一个全球政府。


Progress, on the contrary, requires the utmost scope for personal initiative that is compatible with social order.”

相反，进步则要求实现一个与社会秩序相容的，最大范围的个人主动性。 ”


A new wave of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter famously called “creative destruction” is under way: even as central banks struggle to maintain stability by flooding markets with liquidity, credit to business and households is shrinking.

一个被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼得（Joseph Schumpeter）称之为“创造性破坏”的新浪潮已经涌现：即便中央银行奋力通过向市场注入大量流动性来保持稳定，对企业和家庭的信贷依然不断紧缩。


We live in an age of simultaneous fear of inflation and deflation; of unprecedented prosperity amid growing inequality; and of technological advancement and resource depletion.

我们生活在一个对通胀和通缩的两大恐惧同时并存的时代；既有前所未有的繁荣，又有不断扩大的不平等；一方面科技进步，另一方面则存在资源枯竭。


Meanwhile, existing political systems promise good jobs, sound governance, a sustainable environment, and social harmony without sacrifice – a paradise of self-interested free riders that can be sustained only by sacrificing the natural environment and the welfare of future generations.

与此同时，现有的政治系统既不愿意做出牺牲，却又承诺会提供好工作，优秀管治，可持续环境和社会和谐 — — 这是一个自私自利的搭便车者梦想的天堂，但代价则是牺牲了自然环境以及子孙后代的福祉。


We cannot postpone the pain of adjustment forever by printing money.

我们不能通过印钞的方式永远推迟承担适应变革所带来的阵痛。


Sustainability can be achieved only when the haves become willing to sacrifice for the have-nots.

只有当既得利益者愿意为非既得利益者做出牺牲的时候，可持续性才可能实现。


The Washington Consensus of free-market reforms for developing countries ended more than two decades ago.

针对发展中国国家自由市场改革的华盛顿共识已经在20年前达成。


The INET conference in Berlin showed the need for a new one – a consensus that supports sacrifice in the interest of unity.

而柏林新经济思维研究中心会议则显示我们需要一个新的共识 — — 为了团结统一而做出牺牲。


Europe could use it.

欧洲当采用之。


Accepting Japan at Its Word

接受日本的用词


TOKYO – In recent years, the number of tourists visiting Japan has been increasing rapidly, reaching a record 13.4 million last year, a 29% increase from 2013.

东京—近几年来，访日游客数量迅速增长，去年创出1,340万人次新高，比2013年增加29 % 。


Japan seems to be making great strides toward its goal of recapturing the position as an Asian cultural center that it held a century ago, when the Indian Nobel laureate poet Rabindranath Tagore lived in Tokyo.

日本似乎正在大踏步向重新成为亚洲文化中心的目标迈进。 一百年前，也就是印度诺贝尔奖诗人泰戈尔生活在东京的时候，日本曾经是亚洲文化中心。


Chinese revolutionary leaders Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek, along with many other prominent Asians, moved there as well.

中国革命领袖孙中山和蒋介石以及其他诸多亚洲名人也纷纷来到日本。


Anyone visiting Japan today would do well to learn two key words: domo, meaning “hello,” “thanks,” or “well,” and sumimasen, which can carry any of the meanings of domo, as well as “sorry” or “excuse me.”

如今，所有来日旅客都会学会两个关键词 ： “ 多末 ” ， 意思是“你好 ” 、 “谢谢”或“很好 ” ； 以及“斯米马赛 ” ， 它包括了domo的全部含义，还可以表达“对不起”和“劳驾 ” 。


Ordinary Japanese say sumimasen countless times each day, to apologize to friends or strangers for even the most trivial accident or mistake.

普通日本人每天都要说无数次“斯米马赛 ” ， 有一点点事情或犯一点点错误就用这个词向朋友或陌生人致歉。


But, as Japan’s leaders have experienced firsthand since World War II, expressing regret to other countries is not so simple.

但是，自二战以来，日本领导人真切地感受到，向其他国家表达悔恨之情并不那么简单。


Yet that is precisely what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must do in his upcoming statement marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the war.

但这正是首相安倍晋三在即将到来的二战结束70周年纪念讲话中所要做的。


The statement will be based on consultations with many of Japan’s, and the world’s, leading WWII historians, as well as – and more important – with himself, his conscience, and his heart, because he understands the significance of his words on this highly fraught topic.

该讲话将以诸多日本乃至全球著名二战史家的意见为基础，但更重要的是安倍本人、他的良知和他的用心，因为他明白，在这个高度敏感的话题上，他的用语意义重大。


Of course, Abe is far from the first Japanese leader to confront this challenge.

当然，安倍绝非首位面临如此挑战的日本领导人。


His statement will follow a long line of declarations by prime ministers and chief cabinet secretaries expressing sincere remorse over the events of WWII.

在他以前，无数首相和内阁官方长官都对二战中所发生的事件表达了诚挚的忏悔。


Twenty years ago, Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, the head of the Socialist Party, acknowledged that “Japan, through its colonial rule and aggression, caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries,” particularly in Asia.

二十年前，时任首相、社会党党首村山富市承认“日本的殖民统治和侵略给许多国家的人民造成了严重伤害和苦难 ， ” 特别是亚洲国家。


He went on to express “feelings of deep remorse” and offer a “heartfelt apology” to the victims.

他接着表示“感到深深的忏悔 ” ， 向受害者致以“衷心的歉意 ” 。


Ten years later, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reiterated Murayama’s words, adding that since the war, Japan had been “manifesting its remorse for the war through actions,” especially development assistance and humanitarian activities.

十年后，小泉纯一郎首相重申了村山的歉词，并说二战结束以来日本一直在“用行动表达对战争的忏悔 ， ” 特别是发展援助和人道主义行动。


Koizumi also pledged that “Japan, as a peace-loving nation, will work to achieve peace and prosperity for all humankind with all its resources.”

小泉还承诺“日本是热爱和平的国家，将尽其所能致力于实现全人类的和平与繁荣。 ”


Despite these straightforward declarations of regret, some governments and citizens continue to demand more, giving the impression that nothing a Japanese leader says or does will convince them of the country’s remorse.

尽管日本做出了这些直白的忏悔，但一些政府和人民仍不满足，给人们一种日本领导人的所作所为并没有让他们感到日本的悔意的印象。


This intractability is, in some cases, understandable; the pain of survivors and their descendants remains acute.

从某种程度上，这个棘手问题不难理解；幸存者及其后代的痛苦依然剧烈。


But in many other cases, the unwillingness to move beyond history is driven by political interests.

但在某些情形中，不愿抛弃历史恩怨是因为政治利益。


Indeed, political motivations are behind claims that Abe does not agree with past official apologies, despite his repeated assurances that he does, as well as suggestions that he is seeking to revise history, even though he has never denied Japan’s colonial aggression.

事实上，声称安倍不同意此前的官方道歉（尽管他一再保证他同意此前的道歉 ） ， 其背后便是政治动机；同样，认为安倍试图推翻历史（尽管他从未否认日本的殖民侵略 ） ， 其背后也是政治动机。


Moreover, some have produced portrayals of Japan, as a whole, as an unrepentant country – or, worse, as one that is hell-bent on remilitarization.

此外，一些人将日本的整体形象刻画为一个冥顽不灵的国家 — — 更有甚者，说日本铁了心要重走军国主义老路。


Such depictions are breathtaking in their audacity, given Japan’s seven-decade record as a peaceful and constructive member of the international community.

这样的描述不可不谓厚颜无耻，因为七十年来日本一直是国际社会和平而具有建设性的成员。


This is not lost on those in Japan who ask for how long their country will have to apologize, with some even suggesting that after 70 years, a “tweet” on the subject should amount to adequate acknowledgement by Abe.

对于一些质问祖国究竟需要道歉多长时间的日本人来说，这一点很重要，有人甚至认为，70年后，关于该主题的一条“推特”应该足以让安倍认识到这一点。


The prime minister, however, remains committed to issuing a strong and sincere statement on the subject.

但是，首相仍决定就该主题发表强烈而诚挚的讲话。


Early this year, Abe announced his intention to use the 70th anniversary statement to communicate Japan’s remorse for the war, describe the progress the country has made in upholding peace, and describe the contributions that Japan can make to Asia and the rest of the world in the coming decades.

今年年初，安倍宣布他将在70周年讲话中表达日本对战争的忏悔，描述日本在支持和平方面所取得的进步，并表达日本可以在未来几十年对亚洲和世界其他地区的和平所做的贡献。


In fact, it is the third component of the announcement that inspires fear in some observers: By helping to build a strong security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan could undermine the ability of some actors to advance their own interests.

事实上，第三部分引起了一些观察者的担忧：通过帮助亚太地区构建强大的安全结构，日本可能破坏某些行动方主张自身利益的能力。


That is why they launched a whisper campaign against Abe’s statement months before he even began to write it.

因此，它们用谣言攻击安倍的讲话，哪怕距离讲话时间还有几个月之久、演讲词都没有开始撰写。


But, of course, Asian security and prosperity is in everyone’s interest.

但是，亚洲的安全与繁荣当然事关所有人的利益。


Given this, not even the language of Abe’s statement is particularly important; what matters is the determination he expresses, and the actions he takes to follow through – with appropriate humility – on his pledges.

因此，即便安倍讲话的用词并非十分重要，重要的是他所表达的决心，以及他（以合适的谦逊态度）拿出怎样的行动。


And it seems that Abe is, indeed, determined to make real contributions to peace, based on effective cooperation with Japan’s friends and allies.

事实上，安倍似乎决心要在与日本友邦和盟国进行有效合作的基础上为和平做出真正的贡献。


But if Asia is to move beyond its past, the victims of Japan’s wartime aggression must recognize that the Japan of 2015 is not the Japan of 1931, 1941, or even 1945, and that, as many Asian leaders have realized over the years, forgiveness benefits everyone.

但如果亚洲要超越历史恩怨，日本战时侵略的受害者就必须承认2015年的日本不是1931、1941乃至1945年的日本，并且，如许多亚洲领导人在过去几年中所认识到的，原谅可以给所有人带来好处。


In 1998, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung responded positively to a statement by former Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.

1998年，韩国总统金大中对前日本首相小渊惠三的讲话予以积极回应。


The governments of Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries have done the same, and now welcome Japan’s commitment to act with its allies to protect regional security.

印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南和其他国家也是如此，现在它们都欢迎日本与盟国携手保护地区安全的承诺。


These countries’ openness to reconciliation have enabled Japan to recast itself as a key arbiter of regional peace and prosperity, not to mention an increasingly dynamic cultural hub.

这些国家对和解的开放态度让日本重新铸造其地区和平与繁荣重要仲裁者的形象，更不用说活力日盛的文化枢纽了。


It is time for the rest of the region to follow suit, accepting at face value Japan’s sincere apologies and working with the country to build a better future.

该地区其他国家也应该效而仿之，按字面意思接受日本诚挚的道歉，与日本共同建设更美好的未来。


At a time when Asia is facing serious security challenges, this stance could not be more urgent.

在亚洲面临严重安全挑战的当下，这一立场无比紧要。


A Big Chance for Small Farmers

小农迎来大机遇


NEW YORK – The G-8’s $20 billion initiative on smallholder agriculture, launched at the group’s recent summit in L’Aquila, Italy, is a potentially historic breakthrough in the fight against hunger and extreme poverty.

纽约 — — 八国集团不久前在意大利拉奎拉峰会上启动的200亿美元小农援助计划或许是战胜饥饿和极端贫困的一次历史性的突破。


With serious management of the new funds, food production in Africa will soar.

如果这笔新资金能得到认真的管理，非洲的粮食生产将会大幅度增加。


Indeed, the new initiative, combined with others in health, education, and infrastructure, could be the greatest step so far toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals, the internationally agreed effort to reduce extreme poverty, disease, and hunger by half by 2015 .

实际上，这项新计划和其他医疗、教育、基础设施计划一起，有可能成为迄今为止实现千年发展目标的最有效举措，千年发展目标国际协议规定到2015年将极端贫困、疾病和饥饿人口减少到原来的半数。


During 2002-2006, I led the United Nations Millennium Project, which aimed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, for then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

2002至2006年，我为实现千年发展目标，在时任联合国秘书长科菲·安南管理下领导联合国千年发展项目。


One cornerstone of the project was “smallholder farmers,” meaning peasant farm families in Africa, Latin America, and Asia – working farms of around one hectare (2.5 acres) or less.

“小农”是这个项目的基础 ， “ 小农”一词是非洲、拉美和亚洲耕种土地不超过1公顷（合2.5英亩）的农民家庭的代名词。


These are some of the poorest households in the world, and, ironically, some of the hungriest as well, despite being food producers.

颇具讽刺意味的是，尽管自身也生产粮食，但他们却隶属于世界最贫困、最饥饿家庭的行列。


They are hungry because they lack the ability to buy high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and other tools needed to increase productivity.

他们饥饿，是因为无力购买提高产量所需的高产种子、化肥、灌溉设备和其他工具。


As a result, their output is meager and insufficient for their subsistence.

这导致农作物产量匮乏，根本不够维持生计。


Their poverty causes low farm productivity, and low farm productivity reinforces their poverty.

他们的贫困造成农业生产率低下，而农业生产率低下又反过来加剧了贫困。


It’s a vicious circle, technically known as a poverty trap.

这形成了恶性循环，技术上被称为贫困陷阱。


The UN Millennium Project’s Hunger Task Force, led by two world-leading scientists, M. S. Swaminathan and Pedro Sanchez, examined how to break this vicious circle.

在两位世界著名科学家斯瓦米纳坦和佩德罗·桑切斯的领导下，联合国千年发展项目反饥饿工作组研究这种恶性循环应该如何打破。 工作组的结论是，如果以农业投入的方式向小农提供帮助，可能会大幅增加非洲粮食产量。


The Hunger Task Force determined that Africa could substantially increase its food production if help was given to smallholder farmers, in the form of agricultural inputs.  The Millennium Project recommended a big increase in global funding for this purpose.  Drawing on that work and related scientific findings, Annan launched a call in 2004 for an African Green Revolution, based on an expanded partnership between Africa and donor countries.

千年计划建议大幅度增加对这方面的全球资助。 根据此项成果及相关的科学发现，安南在扩大非洲和捐助国合作规模的基础上，在2004年呼吁启动非洲绿色革命。


Many of us, notably current UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, have worked hard to make this possible, with Ban repeatedly emphasizing the special emergency arising from the global food, financial, and energy crises of the past two years.

我们很多人，特别是现任联合国秘书长潘基文，为实现这一目标付出了艰苦的努力。 潘秘书长反复强调过去两年中全球粮食、金融和能源危机引发的特别问题。


The G-8 announcement reflects these years of effort, and of course the boost from the leadership of US President Barack Obama, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, European Commissioner Louis Michel, European Parliamentarian Thijs Berman, and others.

八国集团声明反映了这些年的努力，其中当然离不开美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马、西班牙总理何塞·路易斯·萨帕特罗、澳大利亚总理陆克文、世界银行行长罗伯特·佐立克、欧盟专员路易·米歇尔、欧洲议会议员蒂伊斯·伯曼、还有其他人的领导作用。


Now the key is to make this effort work.

现在的关键是要收到实效。


The lessons of history are clear.

历史的教训显而易见。


Getting seed and fertilizer to smallholder farmers at highly subsidized prices (or even free in some cases) will make a lasting difference.

向小农家庭发放含有大量补贴的种子和化肥（有时甚至是免费发放）将产生持续性效果。


Not only will food yields rise in the short term, but farm households will use their higher incomes and better health to accumulate all sorts of assets: cash balances, soil nutrients, farm animals, and their children’s health and education.

不仅能在短期内提高粮食产量，而且能使农户利用高收入和更好的医疗积累各种财富：现金盈余、土壤养分、家畜、及其子女的医疗和教育。


That boost in assets will, in turn, enable local credit markets, such as micro-finance, to begin operating.

资产的积累反过来会启动小额融资公司等当地信贷市场。


Farmers will be able to buy inputs, either out of their own cash, or by borrowing against their improved creditworthiness.

农户可以依靠自有资金或资信改善来以贷款的方式购买农用物资。


A consensus has now been reached on the need to assist smallholders, but obstacles remain.

目前已经就援助小农的必要性达成���一致，但在实际操作中还存在问题。


Perhaps the main risk is that the “aid bureaucracies” now trip over each other to try to get their hands on the $20 billion, so that much of it gets taken up by meetings, expert consultations, overhead, reports, and further meetings.

现在主要的风险或许是“官僚援助体系”竭力争夺这200亿美元的经费，想把尽可能多的部分用于会议、专家咨询、管理费用、报告撰写以及组织更多的会议。


“Partnerships” of donors can become an expensive end in themselves, merely delaying real action.

捐助国的“伙伴关系”自身又可能代价昂贵，而且除推迟实际行动外起不到任何作用。


If donor governments really want results, they should take the money out of the hands of thirty or more separate aid bureaucracies and pool it in one or two places, the most logical being the World Bank in Washington and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in Rome.

如果捐助国政府真的看重结果，就应该从30家或者更多的独立官僚援助机构中把款项收回，集中交给一两家机构管理。 最顺理成章的管理机构是华盛顿世界银行和罗马联合国国际农业发展基金。


One or both of these agencies would then have an account with several billion dollars.

这样这一两家机构就会拥有数十亿美元的扶贫账户。


Governments in hunger-stricken regions, especially Africa, would then submit national action plans that would provide details on how they would use the donor funds to get high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, farm tools, storage silos, and local advice to impoverished farmers.

饥荒地区，特别是非洲的政府，则需提交国家行动计划，提供他们打算如何利用捐助款项为贫困农民提供高产种子、化肥、灌溉、农机、仓库和咨询建议的细节。


An independent expert panel would review the national plans to verify their scientific and managerial coherence.

将由独立的专家小组对国家计划的科学性和管理的连贯性进行评估。


Assuming that a plan passes muster, the money to support it would quickly be disbursed.

如果计划通过了检验，支持计划的资金将迅速拨付到位。


Afterward, each national program would be monitored, audited, and evaluated.

而后，将对每项国家计划进行监督、审计和评估。


This approach is straightforward, efficient, accountable, and scientifically sound.

这种方法直接、有效、负责、有着不错的科学基础。


Two major recent success stories in aid have used this approach: the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunizations, which successfully gets immunizations to young children, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria, which supports national action plans to battle these killer diseases.

最近两个成功的捐助案例就是使用的这种方法：其一是全球疫苗免疫联盟成功为儿童提供免疫服务，还有就是全球艾滋病、肺结核和疟疾基金为战胜上述致命疾病的国家计划提供了支持。


Both have saved millions of lives during the past decade, and have paved the way to a new more efficient and scientifically sound method of development assistance.

过去10年来这两家机构都挽救了数百万人的生命，并为更高效、更科学合理的新的发展援助方法铺平了道路。


Not surprisingly, many UN agencies and aid agencies in rich countries fight this approach.

很多联合国和富裕国家援助机构为此展开争夺，这并不值得大惊小怪。


All too often, the fight is about turf, rather than about the most effective way to speed help to the poor.

但这种争夺常常是为了争权夺利，而不是以最有效的方法向贫困人口提供援助。


Obama, Rudd, Zapatero, and other forward-thinking leaders can therefore make a huge difference by following up on their pledges at the G-8 and insisting that the aid really works.

奥巴马、陆克文、萨帕特罗和其他有远见的领导人因此可以通过兑现在八国峰会上的承诺、坚持要求实际援助效果带来巨大的变化。


The bureaucracies must be bypassed to get help to where it is needed: in the soil tilled by the world’s poorest farm families.

必须绕过官僚机构为由世界最贫困的农民家庭所耕种的土地提供援助。


A Black and White Question

黑白人种问题


NEW YORK – In the afternoon of July 16 two men appeared to be breaking into a fine house in an expensive area of Cambridge, Massachusetts.

纽约 — — 7月16日下午两名男子看似正试图闯入位于马萨诸塞州坎布里奇高尚住宅区的一栋豪宅。


Alerted by a telephone call, a policeman arrived smartly on the scene.

接到电话报警后，一名警察立即赶到了现场。


He saw one black male standing inside the house and asked him to come out.

他看到一名黑人男子在房间里，就要求他出来。


The man refused.

那个人拒绝了。


He was then told to identify himself.

警察要求他说明身份。


The man, still refusing to step out, said he was a Harvard professor, showed his ID, and warned the cop not to mess with him.

该男子仍然拒绝走出房门，但说自己是一位哈佛教授，出示了证件，并警告警察不要打扰他。


He said something about black men in America being singled out, and asked the cop, who was white, for his name and identification.

他说美国黑人遭到歧视，并要求那位白人警察报名并出示警官证。


The cop, joined by several colleagues, arrested the professor for disorderly conduct.

此时该警察的几名同事赶到，他们以妨害治安为由逮捕了这位教授。


We now know that the professor had broken into his own home, with the help of his chauffeur, because the door was jammed.

我们现在知道这位教授在司机的帮助下闯入了自家的房门，因为门被卡住了。


What was unusual here was not the cop’s heavy-handedness.

这次事件中不同寻常的并不是警察的暴虐。


Most people in the US know that if you talk back to the police, they will get nasty very fast.

多数美国人都知道如果跟警察顶嘴，他们很快就会变得气急败坏。


The fact that the man was black might or might not have made the cop go for his handcuffs even sooner than he might normally have done.

这位教授是黑人的事实可能有也可能没有导致警察更快地掏出手铐。


That, too, would not have been unusual.

这一点也没有什么不同寻常。


What made this case special was that Henry Louis “Skip” Gates is one of the most celebrated professors in the country, famous for his books, his articles, and numerous television appearances.

这个案件的特殊性在于亨利·路易斯·盖茨是美国最著名的教授之一，著作等身，文章充栋，并多次在电视上露面。


He is a grandee, a mover and shaker in the academic and media world, a friend of President Barack Obama.

他称得上是位显贵，在学术和媒体圈中一呼百应，还与巴拉克·奥巴马总统私交甚笃。


That is why he warned the cop, Sgt. James Crowley, a veteran of the Cambridge police force, not to mess with him.

他因此警告詹姆斯·克劳利中士，这位坎布里奇的老资格警官不要招惹他。


Class and race overlap in the US.

美国的阶级和种族问题错综复杂。


In this instance, it is impossible to pry them apart.

在这个案件中，不可能将它们区分清楚。


Gates, deeply conscious, indeed a specialist of the terrible history of race relations in his country, instinctively assumed that he was a victim of prejudice.

盖茨非常了解美国糟糕的种族关系史，甚至可以说是这方面的专家，因此他本能地认为自己成了种族歧视的受害者。


From his words it appears that he was equally conscious of not getting the proper respect due to a distinguished Harvard professor and media celebrity.

从他的话中还可以看出他因未能获得一位哈佛教授兼媒体名人应有的尊重而耿耿于怀。


As he put it to his daughter in an interview published online: “[Crowley] should have gotten out of there and said, ‘I’m sorry, sir, good luck.

他在网上公布的一次采访中对自己的女儿说 ： “ [克劳利]当时应该对我说 ， ‘ 对不起，先生，祝您好运。 我喜欢您的[电视]系列片 — — 回头见！


Loved your [television] series—check with you later!’”

’说完后立即离开。 ”


Alas, Sgt.Crowley had never heard of Professor Gates.

唉，克劳利中士从来没有听说过盖茨教授的大名。


A local man whose brothers all serve in the police force, a sports fan, and an amateur basketball coach, Crowley does not move in the same social circles as Gates.

作为一名兄弟都在警方供职的当地男性，一名体育爱好者，和一名业余篮球教练，克劳利和盖茨根本不属于同一个的社交圈。


As it happens, the charges were duly dropped, and there the case might have rested if President Obama, tired and frustrated after weeks of fighting for his healthcare bill, had not weighed in on behalf of his “friend” Gates, and called the police “stupid.”

实际上，对盖茨的指控已被及时取消，如果不是奥巴马总统在因连续几周争取通过医疗法案未果而感到厌倦和沮丧时去替“老友”盖茨说话，将警方斥之为“愚不可及”的话，这个案件可能已经烟消云散了。


Both he and Gates then spoke of “learning” from the incident.

然后他和盖茨都谈到了这次事件的“教训 ” 。


Gates might even be planning a television documentary on racial profiling.

盖茨甚至可能正在筹划拍摄一部有关粗暴执法的电视纪录片。


One thing to be learned, if we didn’t know this already, is how close racial sensitivities are to the surface of US life, despite the election of a black president.

如果我们还没有吸取这样的教训，那么这件事的教训之一就是告诉我们尽管选出了一位黑人总统，但种族敏感问题多么容易在美国生活中浮出水面。


The complexities of black anger, white guilt, and of black, and white fear, are so vexed that most Americans prefer not to talk about race at all.

黑人的愤怒、白人的负疚、还有黑人和白人的恐惧是如此错综复杂，以致于多数美国人选择逃避种族话题。


The field is too full of mines.

这片领域里有着太多的地雷。


One of Obama’s great achievements is that he made it into a serious topic through the brilliance and subtlety of his rhetoric.

奥巴马最大的成就之一是他通过自己智慧巧妙的措辞，对绝大多数人讳莫如深的种族问题进行了严肃的探讨。


And there remains plenty to talk about: the grotesquely disproportionate number of black men in US prisons; the lack of educational opportunities in poor, mostly black areas; the appalling healthcare system; and the very real brutality used by police officers against blacks, who don’t have the privilege of a Harvard ID.

可以谈论的话题还有很多：包括美国监狱中比例畸高的黑人在押犯、穷人聚居区、绝大部分是黑人聚居区教育机会的匮乏、可怕的医疗体制、以及警官对没有哈佛身份的黑人所采用的真实的暴力行径。


It is probably true that many white policemen, even if they are trained to avoid racial profiling, as Sgt. Crowley was, need to be convinced that a black man can be at home in one of the finer houses of Cambridge, or any other American city.

也许的确需要说服像克劳利中士这样的许多白人警官，即便他们曾经接受过避免暴力执法的训练，黑人也可以居住在位于坎布里奇、或者其他任何美国城市的高尚住宅区的家中。


But is the Gates affair the right way to enter into this discussion?

但盖茨事件是否是参与讨论的恰当方式？


One might argue that it was.

您也许会说是。


If not Professor Gates, then who?

如果不是盖茨教授，谁还能够引起关注？


Precisely because he is a grandee, he is in the position to draw national attention to a serious issue.

正因为他是名人显贵，才能吸引全国民众关注这一严重的问题。


If the same thing had happened to an unknown man in Harlem, or some other poor, or predominantly black district, no one would ever have heard about it.

如果同样的事情发生在哈莱姆区，或另外一个主要由黑人构成的穷人聚居区内一个无名小卒的身上，那么也许根本就不会有人知道。


The fact that it happened to a professor in Cambridge makes everyone sit up and take notice.

这次事件发生在坎布里奇教授身上才吸引了人们的注意力。


There is, however, a danger that it will have an adverse affect on the necessary national discussion about race.

但这个案件的确也存在着对有关种族的全国讨论产生负面影响的危险性。


By having made such a big issue out of what was in fact a relatively minor event Gates could be accused of trivializing much worse instances of abuse.

因为把实际上不那么重要的问题过分夸大，盖茨可能受到将比这恶劣很多的滥用职权事件琐碎化的指责。


Indeed, we don’t even know for certain whether this was such an instance.

事实上，我们根本不知道这个案件是否涉及到种族范畴。


Crowley never mentioned the color of Gates’ skin. There was no question of violence.

克劳利自始至终从未提到过盖茨的肤色，也没有出现过任何暴力侵害行为。


There were just very raw nerves and hypersensitivity to hints of disrespect, on the part of the professor, and of the cop.

只是教授和警察双方都对不尊重的暗示表现得过于敏感。


Outrage about a professor who is not to be messed with is not the best way to discuss the plight of countless, poor, anonymous people, whom most of us find it too easy to ignore.

一位不愿受到打扰的教授的怒火并非探讨无数贫困的无名人士所处困境的最佳方式，这些无名的小人物太容易被我们所忽略。


A Bollywood Bride for Sarkozy?

萨尔科奇的宝莱坞新娘


PARIS -- Ever since French President Nicolas Sarkozy took himself off his country’s most-eligible-bachelor list by publicly acknowledging his affair with supermodel-turned-pop-musician Carla Bruni during a romantic trip to Euro Disney, he’s run into trouble.

巴黎 - - 自从法国总统萨尔科奇在欧洲迪斯尼的浪漫之旅期间公开承认与前超级模特、流行音乐歌手布吕尼的恋情而把自己从法国最受追逐的钻石王老五名单中除下后，他就沾染上了麻烦。


His ratings have dipped below 50% for the first time.

他的民意指数第一次下降到50%以下。


Older French citizens don’t find the public spectacle of their leader in love very amusing.

上年纪的法国人并不欣赏国家领导人公开展示恋情。


Abroad, Egyptian lawmakers were so exercised over the prospect of the French head of state sharing a bed with his girlfriend that several vented their disapproval on the floor of the parliament.

在外国，几名埃及议员们对于法国国家元首同其女友同床共枕非常激动，乃至在国会上公开表示不满。


Likewise, India is all in a quandary over how to handle protocol during Sarkozy’s impending visit to the subcontinent as the guest of honor at the country’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26.

同样，印度也对如何处理萨尔科奇即将作为国家贵宾参加该国1月26日的共和国日庆祝活动的礼宾问题为难。


Should the First Girlfriend have her own motorcade, as a first lady would?

第一女友是否应当像第一夫人一样有自己的车队呢？


Meanwhile, the same hard-right Hindu groups that protest Valentine’s Day as a decadent Western holiday have warned that if Sarkozy arrives with his girlfriend in tow, they’ll be out in the streets to welcome him.

极右翼印度教团体反对情人节，认为这是腐朽堕落的西方节日。 他们警告说，如果萨尔科奇带着女朋友来访，他们就会上街欢迎。


This controversy has threatened to cast a pall over a much-heralded summit between two of the world’s great democracies.

这一争端已经威胁给大受赞扬的世界两大民主国家的峰会蒙上阴影。


With lucrative deals at stake for the big-ticket products that drive the French economy – military hardware, nuclear power plants, and Airbus planes – France has a strong interest in a successful summit in India.

推动法国经济的的军火、核电站以及空中客车等大笔利润丰厚的交易取决于这一访问，因此，对于这次成功的印度之行，法国利益攸关。


So, as rumors fly of secret marriage ceremonies either already concluded or in the works, could the trouble brewing in India over the French president’s very public love life be behind the rush to have the couple legally wed?

因此，当秘密婚礼已经完成或者正在准备的传言飞散之际，印度对于法国总统公共恋情满城风雨是否推动了二人结婚呢？


The news in Sarkozy’s favored media outlet Journal du Dimanche that the couple plan to marry touched off a flurry of fevered speculation on when the happy event might occur.

萨尔科奇所喜欢的<<星期日>>杂志报导说两人打算结婚引发大众猜测婚礼究竟何时举行。 二人已经交换定情物。


The couple exchanged significant tokens of their mutual affection: he offered her a heart-shaped pink diamond ring by Dior, she offered him a Swiss watch.

萨尔科奇给了布吕尼一个玫瑰色心形钻戒，而布吕尼则送给他一块瑞士名表。


It’s “serious,” the smitten president admitted.

热恋中的法国总统承认这一恋情是“严肃认真”的。


But he refused, even under direct questioning by reporters, to reveal an exact date.

但是他甚至在记者的直截了当的提问下也拒绝公开确切的日期。


“You’ll probably find out after it’s happened,” he taunted.

他大声训斥说 ： “ 完事后你们也许就会知道了。


Rumor has it the couple has set February 8 or 9 for the wedding.   Others say that Sarkozy has already outsmarted the media by secretly marrying in the Elysee Palace, even as he was dodging wedding questions.

”有传言说两人已经订下2月8日或者9日结婚。 还有人说萨尔科奇在回避结婚问题的时候已经在爱丽舍宫秘密结婚而让媒体扑空。


If that is true, then Sarkozy missed the romantic opportunity of a lifetime.

如果确实如此，萨尔科奇就错过了一辈子才有一次的浪漫机会。


If the couple sizzled for cameras with Luxor and Petra as the backdrop, just imagine how hot things could get at the most romantic spot on Earth, the Taj Mahal.

如果二人以埃及祖玛和约旦佩特拉为背景在镜头前任人拍照，那么，想像一下在世界上最为浪漫的地点印度泰姬陵前将会有多么热闹。


And, given the current rage for all things Bollywood in France, a lavish Indian wedding would be fitting.

而且，鉴于法国目前对于印度的宝莱坞电影着迷，一场浪漫的印度婚礼将会再合适不过了。


Bruni’s own life path closely resembles any number of Bollywood stars who have made the transition from model to actress.

布吕尼自身的生活道路也非常像宝莱坞明星那样从模特转到演员。


A comely brunette who sings is perfect for a Bollywood makeover.

一个漂亮的褐色头发歌唱女郎对于宝莱坞化妆而言是再好不过的了。


The Indian government will be nothing if not relieved to see the first girlfriend made a wife.

印度政府如果见到第一女友成为第一夫人而不感到如释重负就无足轻重了。


As one of India’s leading daily newspapers, the Indian Express, spelled it out, lest anyone be confused, “a girlfriend is not a wife or spouse.”

印度最大的报纸之一印度快报怕有人不懂而指出 ， “ 女朋友不是妻子或配偶。


Once wed, all protocol worries about the French delegation would simply disappear.

”一旦结婚，所有有关法国代表团礼宾问题的担心都将会烟消雾散。


Despite the sometimes downright pornographic on-screen writhing of Bollywood starlets, India is still a deeply conservative society.

除了宝莱坞刚刚出道的女演员会在银幕上有一些露骨的色情折腾表演外，印度还是一个极为保守的社会。


Divorce is anathema. (Sarkozy is now twice divorced.)

离婚是丢人现眼的事情(萨尔科奇现在已经两次离婚了 ) 。


And, while mistresses abound among the privileged classes, they do not strut publicly by their power-mates’ sides.

而且，尽管有钱有势的人周围有不少情人，但是她们并不公开出现在这些人的周围。


Kissing and fondling in public, even by spouses, is taboo.

公共场合下即使夫妻之间亲吻拥抱也是为社会所不容。


In this respect, India more resembles the France with which Sarkozy wants to make a clean break than the current one.

在这一方面，印度倒像是萨尔科奇所想要决裂的法国，而不是当前的法国。


Most Indians, as it seems many French, would prefer not to shed the “hypocrisy” Sarkozy laments on the part of his predecessors (read: former French President François Mitterrand, who had a child with his mistress about whom the public knew nothing until the man’s funeral).

在许多法国人看来，大多数印度人情愿不放下对萨尔科奇前任们的“伪善”指责(也就是，直到法国前总统密特朗葬礼时人们才知道他有一名情妇和私生女儿 ) 。


Sarkozy, of all people, should know that a large part of the gravitas of office derives from pomp and circumstance.

萨尔科奇要比所有的人都应该知道总统职位份量的很大一部分来自于庄重和场合。


Statecraft is a realm where appearances are meant to be deceiving.

在国事活动中，外表应当是遮人耳目的。


When Sarkozy, who otherwise has such finely tuned media instincts, protests that he’s no different from any other man, he comes dangerously close to confusing the office and the person of the president.

萨尔科奇平时具有良好的媒体本能，他抱怨说他和平常人并没有什么两样。 这时候，他就危险地把总统个人和总统职务混为一谈了。


Most French people could only dream of an exotic wedding in India.

大多数法国人只能梦见在印度举办一场充满异国情调的婚礼。


Sarkozy could make that dream come true.

萨尔科奇则可以让这一梦想成为现实。


If he really is as head-over-heels in love with Bruni as he claims, and plans to marry her imminently, why not take advantage of his upcoming trip to India and make this a wedding to remember?

如果他果真像他所说的那样对布吕尼爱得死去活来而且想要大操大办与她结婚，那么为何不利用即将到来的印度之行并让这一婚礼永志不忘呢？


He could meet his bride seated majestically on the caparison of an elaborately decorated elephant, and she would look ravishing swathed and bejeweled in Indian finery.

他可以让新娘座在一头精心打扮的大象上迎接，而新娘则身著印度鲜艳服装，珠光宝气。


The “bling-bling” president, as Sarkozy has been dubbed, can wear all the gold he wants and heap yet more diamonds on his bride.

被人称为喜欢名牌服装的总统的萨尔科奇可以穿上他所想要的所有金饰并且让新娘戴上更多的钻石。


The cameras would roll, Indians would smile, and France would be treated to a Bollywood spectacle beyond its wildest dreams.

照相机会闪个不停，印度人会抱以微笑，而法国将会受到做梦也想不到的宝莱坞式的热闹场景。


And if it’s too late for the wedding, there’s always the reception.

而且，如果没有赶上婚礼，还有婚宴呢。


A Born-Again CAP

重生的共同农业政策


WAGENINGEN, NETHERLANDS – Born in 1957, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is now more than 50 years old, and the European Commission is proposing what it calls a health check for its middle-aged child.

瓦格宁根，荷兰 — — 诞生于1957年的共同农业政策（CAP）如今已年逾五旬，欧盟委员会正提议对它这位中年后代进行所谓的体检。


But superficial repairs will not meet the European Union’s future needs. The CAP must be born again.

不过，表面的修补碍难满足欧盟未来的需要，共同农业政策必须转世重生。


Work on its renewal is due to start now, with the completed project ready in 2013. But a much more profound re-think is needed.

与其重生有关的工作预定即刻开始，完成的计划在2013年将可付诸实施，但我们还需对其进行一番深入得多的再思考。


The CAP’s original aim was to provide a secure source of food for the six original member states of the Union, which were importers of food and sought a degree of self-sufficiency.

共同农业政策原本旨在为欧盟最初的六个成员国提供可靠的食物来源，当时这六国是食品进口国并试图实现一定的自给自足。


Good, healthy, and cheap food had to be accessible for all citizens. Improved agricultural productivity would benefit rural areas and give farmers a comparative share in the Union’s growing wealth.

所有公民都应获得优质、健康而又廉价的食品；提升的农业生产率将惠及农村地区，并使农民在欧盟不断增长的财富中获得相称的一份。


Instruments to achieve those objectives were developed, and food security was achieved.

实现这些目标所需的手段得到发展，食品安全也得以实现。


The CAP quickly came to be seen as the jewel in the crown of the European project.

很快，共同农业政策就被视为欧洲计划中的皇冠上的宝石。


As the EU has evolved and expanded, food systems have become more complex, involving production, processing, supply-chain organization, and wholesale and retail distribution, with all of these involving new issues like health and the environment. The use of land is also receiving more serious scrutiny.

随着欧盟的演化与扩张，食品体系也变得更加复杂，这一体系不但包含了生产、加工、供应链组织以及批发和零售配销等环节，而且每一环节又涉及诸如健康、环保等新的问题；对土地的使用也受到更为认真的监控。


A 1991 study by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Governmental Policy, entitled Ground for Choices, demonstrated that the EU’s food supply could be met with 50% less cultivated land, 80% less pesticides, and at 50% less cost.

1991年由荷兰政府政策科学委员会进行的一次名为面临选择的土地（Ground for Choices）的研究证明了减少50%的耕地、80%的杀虫剂并只需一半的成本，欧盟的食品供应需求就能得到满足。


Pollution would be reduced by 70% as a result of fewer nitrates in the surface water, and greenhouse gases would be cut.

同时，得益于地表水中硝酸盐含量的降低，污染将被削减七成，温室气体也会减少。


Those figures were for an EU of 15 countries, so with today’s 27 members the possibilities are even greater.

这些数据还只是针对彼时只有15个成员的欧盟，如今欧盟已扩大为27国，因此其潜在可能变得更为巨大。


A Dutch analysis of land use has shown that by employing the best technical and ecological means on the best available land, substantial gains could be made in food production.

一份荷兰的土地使用分析已经表明，通过在最好的可使用土地上运用最佳的技术与生态手段，食物生产可以显著增加。


So it is not surprising that the number of farmers needed has fallen substantially.

因此，所需农民数量也已经显著减少这一点不再令人吃惊。


Viewed from the standpoint of food security and the wealth of rural areas, there is now an urgent need to revisit the CAP’s main instruments so that a new policy formula can be introduced.

从食品安全与农村地区财富状况的角度看，目前，重访共同农业政策的主要手段以引入新的政策方案的需求颇为迫切。


Perverse subsidies must be removed and recent new ones favoring products such as bio-fuels reconsidered.

不当的补贴必须取消，近来有利于生物燃料等产品的新补贴则需加以重新考虑。


The status quo clearly has to be changed.

现状无疑需要改变。


Rural policy in the EU is too often reduced to income guarantees for the farming community. But that attitude is undermining change.

欧盟的农业政策过于频繁地缩减变为向农业社群提供收入保证；但这一态度正有损于变化。


Competition must be encouraged, as more rural entrepreneurship will strengthen the farming community, with fewer farmers but better farms.

竞争必须加以鼓励，因为更多的农村企业活动将强化农业社群，使得农民数量减少，而农场变得更好。


A simplified CAP would encourage cleaner, more productive, and efficient agriculture.

一个简化版的共同农业政策将鼓励更为清洁、更加多产并且高效的农业。


A side benefit for the EU’s standing in the world could be that the World Trade Organization’s stalled Doha negotiations could be restarted once farmers in developing countries are assured of getting a fair deal from Europe.

对于欧盟在世界上的地位而言，此举还有一个额外益处，那就是一旦发展中国家的农民得到保证，将获得来自欧洲的公平待遇后，世界贸易组织陷于中止的多哈谈判就能重新启动。


Moreover, the CAP’s role as a motor of political and social integration in Europe could be restored once renewed policies are in place.

而且只要更新后的政策就位，共同农业政策在欧洲政治与社会整合过程中所扮演的发动机角色就能恢复。


But renewal of this sort cannot be left to global market forces, as the results might not necessarily benefit European agriculture and society.

不过此类更新不能听任全球市场力量的摆布，因为其结果可能并不一定有利于欧洲农业与社会。


If the market “misbehaves,” farmers could be reduced to poverty, leading to the neglect of large areas of Europe.

如果市场“运作失当 ” ， 农民就会陷入贫困，并导致欧洲大片地区受到忽视。


That is a real enough danger to which policymakers must give serious thought as they reform the CAP on the basis of the following five pillars.

这是决策者们根据以下五条重要原则改革共同农业政策时必须严肃加以考虑的、足够真切的危险。


1.      The EU needs a knowledge and innovation policy that strengthens European agriculture’s competitiveness.

1、欧盟需要一个增强欧洲农业竞争力的知识与创新政策。


Such a policy has been successful in the Netherlands, substantially contributing to the development and power of the country’s agribusiness.

这一政策曾在荷兰取得成功，对该国农业综合企业的发展与实力贡献良多。


Ten of 21 branches of Dutch agribusiness, including horticultural seeds, ornamentals, seed potatoes, and veal, are among the top contributors to the national economy and the country’s trade balance.

荷兰农业综合企业21个分支中的10个（包括园艺育种、观赏植物、种用马铃薯与小牛肉）位列对该国经济与贸易收支平衡贡献最大的产业之中。


In the EU as a whole, a policy directed toward research programs stimulating scientific excellence and greater coherence in the European knowledge system would greatly strengthen agriculture’s competitiveness and contribute to food security and sustainable development.

欧盟作为整体而言，导向刺激科学卓越成就与欧洲知识体系内更高一致性的研究项目的政策将极大地增强农业竞争力并有助于食品安全和可持续发展。


2.      Europe also needs a restructuring policy for land use.

2、欧洲也需要一个关于土地使用的重组政策。


Many structural improvement programs have been financed at the European level, but agricultural production and land use are not among them.

在欧洲层面已有许多结构性改进项目得到资助，但农业生产与土地使用却不在其中。


The development of an Agricultural Main Structure would compliment the European Ecological Main Structure.

农业主体结构的发展将补全欧洲主体生态结构。


Reforestation and the repair of natural ecosystems should also be part of a land use policy.

重新造林与自然生态系统的修复也应当被纳入土地使用政策之中。


3.      A policy for European food systems would treat production, processing, distribution, logistics, and retailing in combination.

3、关于欧洲食品体系的政策应对生产、加工、分配、物流以及零售诸环节进行联合考虑。


Consumption patterns and preferences are an integral part of such systems.

消费模式与偏好也是这类体系不可或缺的一部分。


Preliminary studies by the European Science Foundation’s “Forward Look on European Food Systems” could prove useful in devising an EU-wide policy.

欧洲科学基金会所做的初步研究 — — “对欧洲食品体系的展望”将为欧盟范围的政策创制提供帮助。


4.      Metropolitan agriculture in a rapidly urbanizing world can provide high-quality produce on small amounts of land.

4、在一个高速城市化的世界中，都市型农业能凭借少量的土地供应高质量的农产品。


It offers an answer to rising demand for healthy food with minimal environmental side effects.

这为如何满足对健康食品不断增长的需求，同时又对环境的副作���最小这一问题提供了一个答案。


5.      A new CAP should include a policy to safeguard Europe’s landscapes.

5、新的共同农业政策应当包含一个保护欧洲地形的方案。


But a cultural heritage should not be maintained everywhere, nor should it ignore cost.

但并非各处都应保留文化遗产，也不该忽视其成本。


And it should not be a defensive policy of the sort that tends to concentrate on poor-quality land.

同时它还不应该成为一个趋向全力聚焦于贫瘠土地的防御性政策。


These five pillars involve drastic choices, but they will probably require less money from Europe’s taxpayers, not more.

上述五条重要原则涉及到激烈的选择，但它们可能只需欧洲纳税人付出更少的资金，而非更多。


They could make a real contribution to cleaner, more productive, and efficient farming and land use, while addressing social needs.

它们将对更为清洁、更加多产并且高效的农业与土地使用做出真正的贡献，并能兼顾社会的需求。


A Breakthrough Against Hunger

突破饥饿危机


NEW YORK – Today’s world hunger crisis is unprecedentedly severe and requires urgent measures.

纽约—当今世界饥饿危机的严重程度前所未有，已是当务之急。


Nearly one billion people are trapped in chronic hunger – perhaps 100 million more than two years ago.

近十亿人在忍受着长期饥饿的煎熬—这样的人口很可能比两年前增加了一亿。


Spain is taking global leadership in combating hunger by inviting world leaders to Madrid in late January to move beyond words to action.

西班牙正在对抗饥饿方面起着全球性的领导作用。 它将邀请世界各国领导人于一月底汇聚马德里，将言语付诸行动。


With Spain’s leadership and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s partnership, several donor governments are proposing to pool their financial resources so that the world’s poorest farmers can grow more food and escape the poverty trap.

在西班牙的领导和联合国秘书长潘基文的支持下，几个捐助国政府正协商着将他们的财政资源集中起来以便让世界上最贫困的农民能够种植更多的粮食，从而摆脱贫穷的陷阱。


The benefits of some donor help can be remarkable.

捐助国的支援所带来的好处是不言而喻的。


Peasant farmers in Africa, Haiti, and other impoverished regions currently plant their crops without the benefit of high-yield seed varieties and fertilizers.

非洲、海地和其他贫困地区目前都在没有高产种子和化肥的情况下种植作物。


The result is a grain yield (for example, maize) that is roughly one-third less than what could be achieved with better farm inputs.

其结果就是粮食产量（例如玉米）比在有更好的农业投入的情况下大约要少三分之一。


African farmers produce roughly one ton of grain per hectare, compared with more than four tons per hectare in China, where farmers use fertilizers heavily.

相较于大量施用化肥的中国农民每公顷四吨的产量，非洲农民每公顷的粮食产量只有约一吨。


African farmers know that they need fertilizer; they just can’t afford it.

非洲农民知道他们需要化肥，只是买不起。


With donor help, they can.

有了捐助国的帮助，他们就能用上化肥了。


Not only do these farmers then feed their families, but they also can begin to earn market income and to save for the future.

到那时，这些农民不仅能养家糊口，还能开始赚取市场收入并为未来而储蓄。


By building up savings over a few years, the farmers eventually become creditworthy, or have enough cash to purchase vitally necessary inputs on their own.

有了几年的积蓄，这些农民最终能够成为具有银行信用的人，或者有足够的现金自行购买必需的农业投入。


There is now widespread agreement on the need for increased donor financing for small farmers (those with two hectares or less of land, or impoverished pastoralists), which is especially urgent in Africa.

现今的一个广泛共识是捐助融资对非洲小农户（拥有两公顷或以下土地，或者是贫穷的畜牧业者）的必要性和急迫性。


The UN Secretary General led a steering group last year that determined that African agriculture needs around $8 billion per year in donor financing – roughly four times the current total – with a heavy emphasis on improved seeds, fertilizer, irrigation systems, and extension training.

联合国秘书长领导的一个指导小组去年得出的结论是非洲农业每年需要约八十亿的捐助融资—大约是现有规模的四倍—而重中之重是改良的种子、化肥、灌溉系统和延伸培训。


In addition to direct help for small farms, donors should provide more help for the research and development needed to identify new high-yielding seed varieties, especially to breed plants that can withstand temporary flooding, excess nitrogen, salty soils, crop pests, and other challenges to sustainable food production.

除了对小农场的直接援助外，捐助方还应该在必需的研发方面给予更多的帮助，从而开发更多种类的新高产种子，特别是用以培育能够耐受暂时的洪涝、过量的氮、盐质土壤、害虫和其他可持续粮食生产所面临的挑战的作物。


Helping the poor with today’s technologies, while investing in future improved technologies, is the optimum division of labor.

以当今的技术帮助穷人，同时投资于未来更好的技术是最佳的分工。


This investment pays off wonderfully, with research centers such as the International Rice Research Institute and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre providing the high-yield seeds and innovative farming strategies that together triggered the Asian Green Revolution.

有了如国际水稻研究所和国际玉米及小麦研究所这些提供高产种子和创新农业战略，并共同引发了亚洲“绿色革命”的研究中心，这种投资的回报极为可观。


These centers are not household names, but they deserve to be.

这些中心并非人尽皆知，但它们的确是无名英雄。


Their scientific breakthroughs have helped to feed the world, and we’ll need more of them.

它们的科学突破帮助我们养活了全世界的人口，这样的机构应该更多一些。


Dozens of low-income, food-deficit countries, perhaps as many as 40-50, have elaborated urgent programs for increased food production by small farms, but are currently held back by the lack of donor funding.

数十个低收入、粮食赤字的国家（可能有四十到五十个）已经宣布了旨在增加小农场粮食产量的紧急计划，但却由于缺少捐助方的资金支持而力不从心。


These countries have appealed to the World Bank for financing, and the Bank made a valiant effort in 2008 to help through its new Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFCRP).

这些国家向世界银行请求融资，而该行在2008年也不遗余力地通过其新的“全球粮食危机响应计划 ” ( GFCRP) 提供了帮助。


But the Bank does not yet have sufficient funds to meet these countries’ urgent needs, and has had to ration assistance to a small fraction of the flows that could be effectively and reliably used.

但世行资金在满足这些国家的紧急需求方面也是捉襟见肘，并不得不对援助资金进行配额限制，使得其数额相对于原本所需的可靠而有效资金量而言只是杯水车薪。


Hundreds of millions of people, in the meantime, remain trapped in hunger.

同时，近十亿人则在饥饿中挣扎。


Many individual donor countries have declared that they are now prepared to increase their financial support for smallholder agriculture, but are searching for the appropriate mechanisms to do so.

许多捐助国都各自宣称正准备增加对小型农业的资金支持，但现在正寻求一种合适的实施机制。


The current aid structures are inadequate.

目前的援助架构尚有欠缺。


The more than 20 bilateral and multilateral donor agencies for agriculture are highly fragmented and of insufficient scale individually and collectively.

二十余家双边和多边的农业援助机构则高度分散，其规模不论个体还是集体都尚显不足。


Despite the dedicated efforts of many professionals, the response to the hunger crisis remains utterly inadequate.

尽管许多专业人士付出了巨大的努力，但对饥饿危机的响应仍然远远不足。


The 2008 planting seasons came and went with much too little additional help for impoverished small farmers.

2008年的种植季节来了又去，贫穷的小农户们在此期间所获得的额外援助仍是少之又少。


African countries search endlessly, and mostly fruitlessly, for the small amounts of funding needed for their purchases of fertilizer and improved seeds.

非洲国家无尽地，也几乎无果地寻求着购买化肥和良种所需的小额资金。


My colleagues and I, serving on an advisory committee for the Spanish initiative, have recommended that donors pool their funds into a single international account, which we call the Financial Coordination Mechanism (FCM).

作为西班牙政府此项计划的顾问委员会成员，我和我的同事们建议捐助方将他们的资金集中到同一个被我们称为“融资协调机制(FCM ) ” 的国际账户。


These pooled funds would enable farmers in poor countries to obtain the fertilizer, improved seed varieties, and small-scale irrigation equipment that they urgently need.

这些集中起来的资金能让贫穷国家的农民获得急需的化肥、良种和小型灌溉设备。


Poor countries would receive prompt and predictable financing for agricultural inputs from a single account, rather than from dozens of distinct and fragmented donors.

穷国能从一个统一账户而不是数十个各自为政且高度分散的捐助方获得即时和可预见的农业投入融资。


By pooling financial resources into a single-donor FCM, aid programs’ administrative costs could be kept low, the availability of aid flows could be assured, and poor countries would not have to negotiate 25 times in order to receive help.

通过将财政资源集中到一个统一的捐助方FCM，可以保持较低的援助计划行政成本，援助资金流的持续性也能得到保证，而穷国也不必为了获得援助而进行二十五次谈判。


The time for business as usual is over.

按部就班的时代一去不返。


The donors promised to double aid to Africa by 2010, but are still far off track.

捐助方承诺到2010年将援助资金增加一倍，但现在仍是任重道远。


Indeed, during the past 20 years, they actually cut aid for agriculture programs, and only now are reversing course.

的确，在过去的二十年里，他们实际上削减了农业计划的援助资金，直到现在才开始回到正轨。


Meanwhile, a billion people go hungry each day.

与此同时，十亿人却每天生活在饥饿的阴影之中。


We need a breakthrough that is demonstrable, public, clear, and convincing, that can mobilize the public’s hearts and minds, and that can demonstrate success.

我需要一种突破，它具有示范效应，公开、明晰并具有说服力；它能激发公众的身心投入，并彰显成功。


History can be made in Madrid at the end of January, when the world’s richest and poorest countries converge to seek solutions to the global hunger crisis.

当世界上最富裕和最贫穷的国家在一月底齐心协力寻求全球饥饿危机的解决之道时，我们就能在马德里创造历史。


The lives of the billion poorest people depend on it.

十亿最贫穷人口的生命皆系于此。


A Breakthrough Opportunity for Global Health

全球卫生状况的突破性机会


NEW YORK – Every year, millions of people die from preventable and treatable diseases, especially in poor countries.

纽约—每年都有数百万人因可防可治的疾病而身亡，特别是在穷国。


In many cases, lifesaving medicines can be cheaply mass-produced, but are sold at prices that block access to those who need them.

在很多情形中，救命药可以以低廉的成本大量生产，但售价却让需要者望而却步。


And many die simply because there are no cures or vaccines, because so little of the world’s valuable research talent and limited resources is devoted to addressing the diseases of the poor.

更有许多人的死仅仅是因为缺少治疗或疫苗，而造成这种情况的原因是用于为穷人治病的世界宝贵研究人才和有限资源太少。


This state of affairs represents a failure of economics and law that urgently needs to be corrected.

如此状况反映了经济学和法律方面急需得到修正的失灵。


The good news is that there are now opportunities for change, most promisingly through an international effort headed by the World Health Organization that would begin to fix the broken intellectual-property regime that is holding back the development and availability of cheap drugs.

好消息是现在改变的机会已现，主要是通过一项由世界卫生组织牵头的国际计划，该计划将开始修正造成廉价药品开发和难以获得问题的知识产权制度漏洞。


Two main problems limit the availability of medicines today.

如今，药品之所以难以获得，主要是拜两大问题所赐。


One is that they are very costly; or, more accurately, the price charged for them is very high, though the cost of producing them is but a fraction of that amount.

其中之一是药品成本太高；或者，更正确地说，是药品要价太高，而生产成本只是要价的一小部分。


Second, drug development is geared toward maximizing profit, not social benefit, which skews efforts directed at the creation of medicines that are essential to human welfare.

第二个问题是药品开发的着眼点是利润最大化，而不是社会效益最大化，这使得药品开发倾向于创造对人类福利至关重要的品种。


Because the poor have so little money to spend, drug companies, under current arrangements, have little incentive to do research on the diseases that afflict them.

而穷人根本没有多少钱可花，因此，在现有安排下，制药公司根本没什么激励研究折磨穷人的疾病。


It doesn’t have to be this way.

事情本不必如此。


Drug companies argue that high prices are necessary to fund research and development.

制药公司指出，要价高是必要的，这是为了给研发提供资金。


But, in the United States, it is actually the government that finances most health-related research and development – directly, through public support (National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation), and indirectly, through public purchases of medicine, both in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.

但是，在美国，大部分卫生相关研发活动的实际出资者是政府 — — 或是通过公共支持（美国国家卫生研究院、国家科学基金会等）直接提供资金，或是通过药品公共采购（如医疗保险和医疗补助计划）间接提供资金。


Even the part that is not government-financed is not a conventional market; most individuals’ purchases of prescription medicines are covered by insurance.

不能获得政府融资的部分也不是传统市场；许多个人的处方药支出都能获得保险赔付。


Government finances health-care research because improved medicines are a public good.

政府之所以为卫生研究提供融资，是因为改善药品是一种公共品。


The resulting knowledge benefits everyone by stopping epidemics and limiting the economic and human toll of widespread illness.

由此带来的知识进步能防止传染病、减轻常见病的经济和人身伤害，从而让每个人都受益。


Efficiency requires sharing research as widely as possible as soon as it is available.

要获得高效，就必须在获得知识进步后尽可能快地共享之。


Thomas Jefferson compared knowledge to candles: when one is used to light another, it does not diminish the light of the first.

托马斯·杰斐逊曾将知识比作蜡烛：用一根蜡烛点燃另一根蜡烛，并不会减弱前一根蜡烛的光辉。


On the contrary, everything becomes brighter.

相反，这样能使所有东西都变得更亮。


Yet, in America and most of the world, drug prices are still exorbitant and the spread of knowledge is tightly limited.

但是，在美国以及世界大部分地区，药品价格依然高得离谱，知识的传播则受到了严格的制约。


That is because we have created a patent system that gives innovators a temporary monopoly over what they create, which encourages them to hoard their knowledge, lest they help a competitor.

这是因为我们所创造的专利制度给了创新者对其所创之物的暂时垄断权，这促使创新者对知识敝帚自珍，唯恐助了竞争者一臂之力。


While this system does provide incentives for certain kinds of research by making innovation profitable, it allows drug companies to drive up prices, and the incentives do not necessarily correspond to social returns.

这一制度使得创新有利可图，从而确实为某些类型的研究提供了激励；但制药公司也因此得以坐地起价，它们获得的激励与社会回报不一定相容。


In the health-care sector, it may be more profitable to devote research to a “me-too” drug than to the development of a treatment that really makes a difference.

在卫生领域，致力于研究“仿造”药可能比开发一种另辟蹊径的疗法更加有利可图。


The patent system may even have adverse effects on innovation, because, while the most important input into any research is prior ideas, the patent system encourages secrecy.

专利制度甚至可能对创新起到反作用，因为研究的最重要输入变量是领先的思想，而专利制度却在鼓励彼此保密。


A solution to both high prices and misdirected research is to replace the current model with a government-supported prize fund.

要价高企和研究��向偏差问题的解决之道是用政府奖励基金代替现有模式。


With a prize system, innovators are rewarded for new knowledge, but they do not retain a monopoly on its use.

在奖励制度下，创新者将因新知识而受到奖赏，但不再获得新知识使用的垄断权。


That way, the power of competitive markets can ensure that, once a drug is developed, it is made available at the lowest possible price – not at an inflated monopoly price.

这样一来，竞争性市场的力量将能保证只要药品被开发出来，就能以尽可能低的价格（而不是大大膨胀的垄断价）为患者所获。


Fortunately, some US lawmakers are taking a strong interest in this approach.

幸运的是，一些美国立法者已对这一方法产生了浓厚兴趣。


The Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act, a congressional bill introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders, is just such an initiative.

参议员桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）提出、并获得国会通过的艾滋病奖励基金法（Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act）只是一个开始。


His bill also contains an important provision aimed at encouraging open-source research, which would move the current research model away from secrecy toward sharing.

桑德斯的法案包括了一个旨在鼓励开源研究的重要部分，将促使现有研究模式从保密转向共享。


But, globally, our innovation system needs much bigger changes.

但是，从全球角度看，我们的创新制度还需要做出大得多的变化。


The WHO’s efforts to encourage broad reforms at the international level are crucial.

世界卫生组织旨在促进国际层面的广泛改革的努力非常关键。


This spring, the WHO released a report that recommends solutions similar to those proposed in the US Senate bill, but on a global level.

今年春天，世界卫生组织公布了一份报告，其中提出了一项类似于桑德斯法案的解决之道 — — 只不过世卫组织的方案是全球水平的。


Importantly, the report, “Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries,” recommends a comprehensive approach, including mandatory funding contributions from governments for research on developing countries’ health needs; international coordination of health-care priorities and implementation; and a global observatory that would monitor where needs are greatest.

有一点很重要，这份题为《用研发满足发展中国家的卫生需要 》 （ “Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries）给出了一个完整的方法，包括来自政府的指令性发展中国家卫生研究资金分配；优先卫生项目和实施的国际合作；以及监测最紧迫需求的全球观察组。


In late May, the international community will have a chance to begin implementing these ideas at the WHO World Health Assembly – a moment of hope for public health around the world.

5月底，国际社会将由机会在世界卫生组织大会上开始实施这些想法，这将是世界公共卫生的希望时刻。


Reforming our innovation system is not just a matter of economics.

改革创新制度并不仅仅是一个经济问题。


It is, in many cases, a matter of life and death.

在很多情况下，它是个事关生死的大问题。


It is therefore essential to de-link R&D incentives from drug prices, and to promote greater sharing of scientific knowledge.

因此，将研发激励与药品价格脱钩、鼓励更多的科学知识分享至关重要。


For America, the Sanders bill marks important progress.

对美国来说，桑德斯法案是一次重大进步。


For the world, the WHO’s recommendations represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remedy a long-standing and egregious inequity in health care, and, more broadly, to set a model for governance of global public goods befitting an era of globalization.

对全世界来说，世卫组织的建议可谓修正长期存在的卫生不平等性恶疾的千载难逢的良机（从更广的角度讲，也是设立与全球化时代相适应的全球公共品治理新模式的良机 ） 。


We cannot afford to let this opportunity pass us by.

我们决不能坐视这个机会从手中白白溜走。


India’s Change of Guard

印度换防


SINGAPORE – In August, Raghuram Rajan was appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank of India.

新加坡—8月，拉古兰·拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）被任命为印度储备银行行长。


On one level, this was a routine announcement that many had anticipated – after all, Rajan is arguably the best-known Indian economist of his generation.

从某种程度上讲，这是很多人意料之中的宣布 — — 毕竟，拉詹被认为是这一代最著名的印度经济学家。


On another level, however, his appointment can be seen as part of a broader generational shift.

但是，从另一个层面讲，他的任命可以视为更广泛的代际变化的一部分。


Rajan, just 50, will be the first RBI governor born after India became a republic in 1950.

年仅50岁的拉詹将是第一位出生于1950年印度成为共和国之后的央行行长。


Similar changes are taking place in all walks of Indian life, including politics, the arts, sports, and social development.

印度社会各界都在发生类似的变化，包括政治、艺术、体育和社会发展等领域。


And India will be better for it.

印度也将因此受益。


Although the country is one of the youngest in the world, with an average age of just 26 years, until recently aging stalwarts incongruously dominated most fields, from politics to the arts and even business and sports.

尽管印度是世界上最年轻的国家之一，国民平均年龄只有26岁，但直到最近，在各行各业占据主导地位的无不是一些高龄老顽固，从政治到艺术甚至商业和体育诸领域都是如此。


But now younger entrants are rising everywhere, bringing with them energy and new ideas.

但年轻后生在各个领域全面崛起，带来了新能量和新思维。


In politics, as the country prepares for next year’s general election, the leading contenders to replace 81-year-old Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Narendra Modi, 62, and Rahul Gandhi, who is just 43.

在政治界，明年大选即将到来之际，取代81岁的现任总理辛格的最有力候选人是来自印度人民党的62岁的莫迪（Narendra Modi）和年仅43岁的甘地（Rahul Gandhi ） 。


Either man would be the first prime minister who was not born in the British Raj.

不管谁当选，都将是第一位告别英属印度时代后出生的总理。


The arts were one of the first areas to witness this generational change.

艺术界是第一个发生这一代际变化的领域之一。


For a long time, Indian literature, especially in English, was dominated by a clique who wrote mainly for a niche audience and literary recognition.

长期以来，在印度文学界，特别是英语文学界，占主导地位的一直是主要为一小撮读者和文学界的认可而写作的作家。


Then, a few years ago, a group of young writers – such as Chetan Bhagat and Amish Tripathi, both former bankers – changed the rules of the game by writing for the mass market.

但是，几年前，一群青年作家 — — 如Chetan Bhagat和Amish Tripathi，两人此前都是银行家 — — 通过为大众写作改变了游戏规则。


Rather than write for literary critics, they began to use a simpler language, including Indian turns of phrase.

他们不再为文学批评而写作，而是开始用更简单的语言，包括印度土话。


They also chose new themes: Tripathi dipped into ancient mythology to write a trilogy about the god Shiva, while Bhagat began to write about the lives of India’s young, upwardly mobile middle class.

他们还选择了新的写作主题：Tripathi挖掘古神话题材，写出了关于湿婆神的三部曲；Bhagat开始写印度年青一代、向上奋斗的中产阶级的生活。


Predictably, the purists pounced and the critics ridiculed.

不难预测，这引起了纯粹主义者的强烈反弹和批评家的嘲讽。


But people have bought their books in the millions, and film deals have followed.

但人民买他们的账，他们的书销量以百万计，并被改编成了电影。


As a result, the market for books has dramatically expanded and publishers have been forced to change their entire business strategies.

结果，图书市场出现了井喷，出版商被迫改变整个商业战略。


Something similar has happened in the music industry. Previously dominated by a small cabal of singers and music directors, the market has been transformed by TV talent contests, similar to American Idol, which provide a national showcase for the wealth of India’s talent.

音乐产业也是如此，此前被一小撮歌手和音乐指导主宰的市场被电视选秀节目所改变，这些类似《美国偶像》的节目为年轻音乐天才提供了全国性的舞台。


The shows have made participants, some drawn from remote towns, into overnight stars, and many of them have gone on to sign lucrative careers.

选秀节目为参与者 — — 其中不少来自偏远城镇 — — 提供了一夜成名的机会，许多人因此获得了令人羡慕的职业机会。


Thanks partly to this parade of new talent, the Indian music industry is experiencing a period of extraordinary innovation and expansion.

部分归因于对这种形式的新人才检阅，印度音乐产业步入了超乎寻常的创新和扩张期。


The output of the US and European music industries sounds stale in comparison, owing to a dearth of innovation over the last two decades.

相比之下，美国欧洲音乐产业的产出立刻显得相形见绌，这是因为后两者在过去二十年里鲜有创新。


Generational change has even come to India’s most popular sport – cricket.

代际变化甚至出现在印度最受欢迎的体育项目 — — 板球上。


Such was the adulation once heaped upon its aging stars that many of them remained on the national team long past their peak.

曾几何时，这项运动的所有光荣都集中在高龄球星上，以至于他们中很多人早已过了巅峰期但仍占据着国家队名额。


But a mere two years after winning the World Cup in 2011, several members of that victorious team have been replaced – a decision that until recently would have seemed unthinkable.

但在2011年夺得世界杯仅仅两年后，这支胜利之师中的几名队员就已经换了人 — — 在不久前，这还是令人不可思议的现象。


India’s social sector has also been transformed.

印度社会也在发生变化。


Development policy used to be dominated by career activists wedded to socialist-era thinking.

发展政策曾经被浸淫社会主义时期思想的职业活动家主导。


But the arrival of new faces from the world of business, such as Ashish Dhawan, Jayant Sinha, and Ramesh and Swati Ramanathan, has meant that development issues are at last being assessed according to the problem-solving approach of social entrepreneurs, rather than through the ideological lens of activists.

但来自商界的新面孔 — — 比如Ashish Dhawan、Jayant Sinha和Ramesh和Swati Ramanathan — — 意味着发展问题至少会由社会创业家的问题解决思路评估，而不是通过活跃分子的意识形态来决定。


Ironically, it is the world of business that remains slow to change.

讽刺的是，变化缓慢的正是商界。


The growth of the IT sector in the 1990’s seemed to promise that change would be rapid and far-reaching, but the old business families still dominate.

1990年代IT部门的增长似乎预示着变化会是快速且影响深远的，但商业就家族依然拥有主宰地位。


There is hope, though.

但希望仍在。


Entrepreneurs like Manish Sabharwal of Teamlease, and Binny and Sachin Bansal of Flipkart, an online retailer, are fundamentally changing the way India does business.

像Teamlease公司的Manish Sabharwal和在线零售商Flipkart公司的Binny和Sachin Bansal这样的创业家在从根本改变印度的商业模式。


Similarly, Indian academia may be moribund, but new public intellectuals like Pratap Bhanu Mehta have emerged from outside the mainstream.

类似地，印度学界或许也处于停滞不前的状态，但新Pratap Bhanu Mehta等公共知识分子正在崛起于主流之外。


Yes, India’s economy has slowed sharply, the rupee has plunged, and scandals and protests dominate the headlines.

是的，印度经济出现了急剧放缓，卢比出现了大幅贬值，新闻标题充斥着丑闻和示威游行。


But, behind the gloom, a new generation is taking over, bringing with it fresh ideas and visions for India.

但是，在乌云背后，新一代正在接棒，给印度带来新的思想和前途。


Absent-Minded Killers

心不在焉的杀戮者


As a species, human beings have a major self-control problem.

作为一个物种，人类存在很大的自我控制问题。


We humans are now so aggressively fishing, hunting, logging, and growing crops in all parts of the world that we are literally chasing other species off the planet.

我们人类现在全世界所有的地方如此大肆捕鱼、打猎、采伐和种植作物，乃至我们实际上在把其他物种从地球上驱赶出去。


Our intense desire to take all that we can from nature leaves precious little for other forms of life.

我们极度想要从大自然中索取所有我们可以索取的东西，留给其他生物种类的东西少之又少。


In 1992, when the world’s governments first promised to address man-made global warming, they also vowed to head off the human-induced extinction of other species.

在1992年世界各国政府第一次保证解决人为全球气候变暖的时候，他们同时还誓言阻止由人类引发的其他物种的灭绝。


The Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed at the Rio Earth Summit, established that “biological diversity is a common concern of humanity.”

在里约热内卢通过的生物多样性公约确认“生物多样性是人类的共同关切问题。


The signatories agreed to conserve biological diversity, by saving species and their habitats, and to use biological resources (e.g., forests) in a sustainable manner.

”签署国们同意通过挽救物种及其栖息地来保全生物多样性，并且以可持续的方式使用生物资源(例如森林 ) 。


In 2002, the treaty’s signatories went further, committing to “a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss” by 2010.

2002年，该公约的签署国们更进一步，承诺在2010年以前“大幅度削减目前的生物多样性损失 ” 。


Unfortunately, like so many other international agreements, the Convention on Biological Diversity remains essentially unknown, un-championed, and unfulfilled.

不幸的是，就像其他如此众多的国际公约一样，生物多样性公约基本上不为人所知，没有得到宣传促进，也没有得到落实。


That neglect is a human tragedy.

这一疏忽是人类的悲剧。


For a very low cash outlay – and perhaps none at all on balance – we could conserve nature and thus protect the basis of our own lives and livelihoods.

只需要很少的现金投入，甚至在根本上不需要花钱，我们就本能够保全自然，并且进而保护人类自身生命和生计的基础。


We kill other species not because we must, but because we are too negligent to do otherwise.

我们并非是出于必须才杀戮其他物种，而是我们过于疏忽，乃至不改弦更张。


Consider a couple of notorious examples.

让我们来看一看几个臭名昭著的例子。


Some rich countries, such as Spain, Portugal, Australia, and New Zealand, have fishing fleets that engage in so-called “bottom trawling.”

像西班牙、葡萄牙、澳大利亚以及新西兰等富国拥有从事所谓“水底拖网”的捕鱼船队。


Bottom trawlers drag heavy nets over the ocean bottom, destroying magnificent, unexplored, and endangered marine species in the process.

水底拖网在海洋底部拖走很重的鱼网，从而在这一过程中摧毁大量没有探明并且受到威胁的海洋物种。


Complex and unique ecologies, most notably underground volcanoes known as seamounts, are ripped to shreds, because bottom trawling is the “low cost” way to catch a few deep sea fish species.

因为水底拖网是捕捞某些深海鱼种的“低成本”办法，因此某些复杂而又独特的生态、最为主要的是被称为海底山的地下火山被切断。


One of these species, orange roughy, has been caught commercially for only around a quarter-century, but already is being fished to the point of collapse.

其中的一个物种叫做橙连鳍鲑，被用于商业捕捞不过大约25年的时间，但是已经被捕捞得处于崩溃的边缘。


Likewise, in many parts of the world, tropical rainforest is being cleared for pasture land and food crops.

同样在世界许多地方，热带雨林遭到砍伐来开辟牧场和粮食作物。


The result is massive loss of habitat and destruction of species, yielding a tiny economic benefit at a huge social cost.

结果就是栖息地的大量损失和物种的毁灭，所产生的微小的经济利益是以巨大的社会成本为代价的。


After cutting down a swath of rainforest, soils are often quickly leached of their nutrients so that they cannot sustain crops or nutritious grasses for livestock.

在一片雨林被砍伐后，土壤通常马上就丧失了养分， 无法供养作物或者让家畜食用有营养的草地。


As a result, the new pasture land or farmland is soon abandoned, with no prospect for regeneration of the original forest and its unique ecosystems.

结果，新的牧场或农田马上被放弃，没有机会再退耕还林，恢复其独特的生态系统。


Because these activities’ costs are so high and their benefits so low, stopping them would be easy.

由于这些活动的代价高昂、收益低下，停止这些活动是容易的。


Bottom trawling should simply be outlawed; it would be simple and inexpensive to compensate the fishing industry during a transition to other activities.

水底拖网应当干脆被取缔；在捕鱼产业向其他活动转型期间予以补偿是容易做到而且也是费用不大的。


Forest clearing, on the other hand, is probably best stopped by economic incentives, perhaps combined with regulatory limits.

另一方面，砍伐森林最好通过经济激励的方式辅之以管治限制予以制止。


Simply restricting the practice of land clearing probably would not work, since farm families and communities would face a strong temptation to evade legal limits.

简单地限制开发土地的做法可能无法奏效，因为农业家庭和社区将会面临极大的躲避法律限制的诱惑。


On the other hand, financial incentives would probably succeed, because cutting down forest to create pastureland is not profitable enough to induce farmers to forego payments for protecting the land.

在另一方面，财政刺激可能会成功，因为砍伐森林来创造牧场土地并不有利可图，从而使得农民为了保护土地而放弃付款。


Many rainforest countries have united in recent years to suggest the establishment of a rainforest conservation fund by the rich countries, to pay impoverished small farmers a small amount of money to preserve the forest.

许多雨林国家在最近几年中联合起来提议富有国家建立雨林储存基金，用来向贫困的小农场主支付少量金额来保护森林。


A well-designed fund would slow or stop deforestation, preserve biodiversity, and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide the burning of cleared forests.

一个设计合理的基金将会放缓或者停止森林采伐，保护生物多样性，并且减少燃烧砍伐后的森林所造成的二氧化碳排放。


At the same time, small farmers would receive a steady flow of income, which they could use for micro-investments to improve their household’s wealth, education, and health.

与此同时，小农场主将会得到稳定的收入，他们可以用这笔钱作小额投资用以改善家庭的财富、教育和健康。


Aside from banning bottom trawling and establishing a global fund for avoided deforestation, we should designate a global network of protected marine areas, in which fishing, boating, polluting, dredging, drilling, and other damaging activities would be prohibited.

除了取缔水底拖网并且建立为避免森林砍伐的全球性基金外，我们应当指定一个全球性的海洋保护区域网络，在这些区域中禁止捕鱼、划船、污染、挖泥、钻探以及其他有害的活动。


Such areas not only permit the regeneration of species, but also provide ecological benefits that spill over to neighboring unprotected areas.

这些区域不仅可以重新恢复物种，而且还可以提供生态效益向邻近的未保护区域扩散。


We also need a regular scientific process to present the world with the evidence on species abundance and extinction, just as we now have such a process for climate change.

我们还需要定期的科学进程来向世界展示物种繁荣和灭绝的证据，正如有关气候变化的进程一样。


Politicians don’t listen very well to individual scientists, but they are forced to listen when hundreds of scientists speak with a united voice.

政客们并不十分听取个别科学家的意见，但是当几百个科学家异口同声的时候他们就不得不���取了。


Finally, the world should negotiate a new framework no later than 2010 to slow human-induced climate change.

最后，各国应该在不迟于2010年谈判一项新的框架来减缓人为引起的气候变化。


There can be little doubt that climate change poses one of the greatest risks to species’ viability.

毫无疑问，气候变化是物种生存最大的威胁之一。


As the planet warms, and rain and storm patterns change dramatically, many species will find themselves in climate zones that no longer support their survival.

当地球变暖、 降雨和风暴模式大幅度改变之际，许多物种都会处于不再支持其存活的气候区域内。


Some can migrate, but others (such as polar bears) are likely to be driven to extinction unless we take decisive action to head off climate change.

某些物种可以迁徙，但是，除非我们采取决定性的行动来阻止气候变化，其他的物种(例如北极熊)就有可能遭到灭绝。


These measures are achievable by 2010.

在2010年以前实现这些目标是可能的。


They are affordable, and in each case would ultimately deliver large net benefits.

它们在经济上是可以承担的，而且在各个情况下都最终会带来巨大的净效益。


Most importantly, they would allow us to follow through on a global promise.

最为重要的是，这将会让我们实现全球性的许诺。


It is too painful to believe that humanity would destroy millions of other species – and jeopardize our own future – in a fit of absent-mindedness.

人类在心不在焉之际会摧毁数以白万计的其他物种并威胁到我们自己的未来，要相信这一点是过于痛苦的。


Making Do With More

多劳应多得


BERKELEY – In the United States, just three out of ten workers are needed to produce and deliver the goods we consume.

伯克利—在美国，生产和递送我们所消费的商品只需要十分之三的工人。


Everything we extract, grow, design, build, make, engineer, and transport – down to brewing a cup of coffee in a restaurant kitchen and carrying it to a customer's table – is done by roughly 30% of the country's workforce.

我们提炼、种植、设计、建造、制作、打磨和运送的所有东西 — — 一直到从饭店厨房泡一杯咖啡并送给餐桌前的顾客 — — 是由大约30%的美国劳动力做的。


The rest of us spend our time planning what to make, deciding where to install the things we have made, performing personal services, talking to each other, and keeping track of what is being done, so that we can figure out what needs to be done next.

我们其他人把时间花在规划制造什么、决定把我们造出来的东西摆在哪里、履行个人服务、彼此谈话、追踪正在制造什么上，以便我们能够发现我们下一步需要做什么。


And yet, despite our obvious ability to produce much more than we need, we do not seem to be blessed with an embarrassment of riches.

而尽管我们显然拥有制造比我们需要的多得多的东西的能力，但我们似乎并不会富得发慌。


One of the great paradoxes of our time is that workers and middle-class households continue to struggle in a time of unparalleled plenty.

现时代的一大悖论正是工人和中产阶级家庭在前无古人的丰裕时代仍然要为生活奔波。


We in the developed countries have more than enough to cover our basic needs.

我们发达国家的人要想满足基本需要易如反掌。


We have enough organic carbon-hydrogen bonds to break to provide us with calories; enough vitamins and other nutrients to keep us healthy; enough shelter to keep us dry; enough clothing to keep us warm; enough capital to keep us, at least potentially, productive; and enough entertainment to keep us from being bored.

我们有的是有机碳氢键，打破它们就能 给我们带来卡路里；我们有的是维生素和其他营养物质帮助我们保持健康；我们有的是居所让我们保持干燥；我们有的是衣服让我们保持温暖；我们有的是资本让我们（至少潜在地）拥有生产力；我们有的是娱乐项目让我们不至于无聊。


And we produce all of it for an average of less than two hours a day of work outside the home.

我们生产所有这些，只需要平均每天花不到两小时走出家门去工作。


John Maynard Keynes was not off by much when he famously predicted in 1930 that the human race's “economic problem, the struggle for subsistence," was likely to be “solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years."

1930年，当凯恩斯的著名预言预测人类的“经济问题，即生存斗争”有可能“在一百年内得到解决，或至少看到解决办法。


It will take another generation, perhaps, before robots have completely taken over manufacturing, kitchen work, and construction; and the developing world looks to be 50 years behind. But Keynes would have been spot on had he targeted his essay at his readers' great-great-great-great grandchildren.


And yet there are few signs that working- and middle-class Americans are living any better than they did 35 years ago.

然而没有什么迹象表明美国工人和中产阶级比35年前生活得更好。


Even stranger, productivity growth does not seem to be soaring, as one would expect; in fact, it seems to be decelerating, according to research by John Fernald and Bing Wang, economists in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

更奇怪的是，生产率增长似乎没有如你预期的那样大幅加速；事实上，根据旧金山联邦储备银行经济研究部的约翰·费纳尔多（John Fernald）和王兵（音）的研究，生产率增长出现了减速。


Growth prospects are even worse, as innovation hits gale-force headwinds.

增长前景甚至更加糟糕，因为创新活动撞上了南墙。


One way to reconcile the changes in the job market with our lived experience and statistics like these is to note that much of what we are producing is very different from what we have made in the past.

一个协调就业市场变化与我们的生活经验和这些统计数字的办法是注意到我们生产的许多东西与我们过去所制造的东西区别很大。


For most of human experience, the bulk of what we produced could not be easily shared or used without permission.

在人类历史的大部分时间里，我们生产出来的东西无法轻易地在未经允许的情况下共享或使用。


The goods we made were what economists call “rival" and “excludible" commodities.

我们以前制造的东西是经济学家所谓的“竞争性”或“排他性”商品。


Being “rival" means that two people cannot use the same product at the same time.

“竞争性”是指两个人无法在同时使用同一个产品。


Being “excludible" means that the owner of a product can easily prevent others from using it.

“排他性”是指产品的所有者可以轻易地阻止其他人使用这个产品。


These two traits put a great deal of bargaining power in the hands of those who control production and distribution, making them ideal for a market economy based on private property.

这两个特征让控制生产和分配的人拥有了巨大的议价权，成为基于私人产权的市场经济的理想之选。


Money naturally flows to where utility and value are being provided – and those flows are easy to track in national accounts.

钱自然而然地流向了提供效用和价值的地方 — — 并且这些资金流可以轻易地在国民账户中进行追踪。


But much of what we are producing in the information age is neither rival nor excludible – and this changes the entire picture.

但我们在信息时代所生产的许多东西既不具有竞争性，也不具有排他性 — — 这改变了整个局面。


The creation of information-age goods is difficult to incentivize; their distribution is hard to monetize; and we lack the tools to track them easily in national accounts.

信息时代商品的制造很难施加激励；它们的分配也难以货币化；我们也缺乏工具在国民账户中轻易地追踪它们。


The result is an ever-growing discrepancy between what people would be willing to pay for a given service and growth as measured in national statistics.

结果是人们愿意为给定服务所支付的数量与国民统计所测量的增长之间的差异越来越大。


In other words, we are producing and consuming much more than our economic indicators suggest – and the creators of many of those products are not being adequately compensated.

换句话说，我们生产和消费的数量比经济指标所显示的规模大得多 — — 而许多这些产品的额制造者没有获得充分的报偿。


This produces a set of unique problems.

这就带来了一系列独特的问题。


To ensure that the workers of today and tomorrow are able to capture the benefits of the information age will require us to redesign our economic system to stimulate the creation of these new types of commodities.

为了确保今天和明天的工人能够获得信息时代的好处，我们就必须重新设计经济制度以刺激这些新型商品的创造。


In addition to developing ways to account for this new type of wealth, we will have to develop channels through which demand for a product contributes to the income of its creator.

除了找到记录这一新型财富的方法，我们还需要找到将让产品需求有利于创造者收入的渠道。


Only by finding ways to put true value on the goods we produce will we be able to sustain a middle-class society, rather than one of techno-plutocrats and their service-sector serfs.

只有找到能准确衡量我们所制造的商品的额价值的方法，我们才能维持中产阶级社会，而不至于出现由技术大亨和他们的服务业农奴组成的社会。


Making Academia Matter Again

让学术界重获新生


CAMBRIDGE – Academic freedom is a precious commodity, critical to ensure that discovery of the truth is not encumbered by political or ideological forces.

剑桥 — — 学术自由是对确保政治或意识形态势力不阻碍真相发现起关键作用的一种珍贵的商品。


But this does not mean that intellectuals should hide in academic bunkers that, by protecting us from criticism by “non-experts,” allow ego to flourish and enable a focus on questions that are not actually relevant to anyone else.

但这并不意味着知识分子应当躲进学术掩体，在保护我们免受“非专家”责难的同时，允许自我意识迅速泛滥，允许自己关注对其他任何人都无关紧要的话题。


We experts should have to explain ourselves.

我们这些专家应当向外界解释我们自己。


This means, first and foremost, that researchers should be communicating their results in a way that supports accountability and confirms that public funds and education benefits are being used in ways that are in taxpayers’ interests.

首先这意味着研究人员应当以接受问责的方式向外界公开他们的研究成果，从而确保公共资金和教育福利的使用方式符合纳税人的利益。


The duty to communicate findings also ensures that the public is educated, not only about the topic itself, but also about the way research actually works.

公开研究成果的义务也确保公众能够受到教育，这不仅关系到课题本身，同时也关系到学术研究的实际运作方式。


Scholarly books and journals often give the impression that the truth is revealed through a neat, orderly, and logical process.

学术书籍和期刊往往给人留下这样的印象，那就是学术界通过整洁、有序而且合乎逻辑的方式来揭示真理。


But research is far from being a pristine landscape; in fact, it resembles a battlefield, littered with miscalculations, failed experiments, and discarded assumptions.

但科学研究远不是什么纯粹地带；事实上，它更像一个战场，充满了计算失误、试验失败和最终被丢弃的假设。


The path to truth is often convoluted, and those who travel along it often must navigate fierce competition and professional intrigue.

通往真理的道路往往迂回曲折，走在真理之路上的人们往往要经受激烈的竞争和专业阴谋。


Some argue that it is better to hide this reality from the public, in order to maintain credibility.

有人提出为保持公信力，最好隐藏这样的事实。


For example, in 2014, physicists collaborating on a project known as BICEP2 thought that they had detected gravitational waves from the beginning of the universe.

例如，2014年，合作参与BICEP2项目的物理学家以为已经探测到宇宙初期的引力波。


It was later realized that the signal they had detected could be entirely attributed to interstellar dust.

但后来他们逐渐意识到所探测到的信号可能完全来源于星际尘埃。


Some of my colleagues worried that this revelation would undermine faith in other scientific predictions, such as those involving climate change.

我的某些同事担心这个消息一旦泄露出去，会影响人们对气候变化等其他科学预测的信心。


But would hiding the truth from the public really do more for scientific and academic credibility than cultivating a culture of transparency?

但对公众隐瞒真相是否真的比创造透明文化更有利于科学和学术的可信性？


Probably not.

也许并非如此。


In fact, being honest about the realities of research might enhance trust and create more space for innovation, with an informed public accepting that risk is the unavoidable and worthwhile cost of groundbreaking and broadly beneficial discoveries.

事实上，对研究现状保持诚实可以增强信任感并创造更多创新空间，在这种情况下，理性的公众接受科研风险不可避免，科研上付出的代价能为取得开创性和普遍有益的科研成果做出自己的贡献。


Another way to ensure that academia continues to innovate in useful and relevant ways is to blur the traditional boundaries among disciplines – the frontiers where invention so often happens.

确保学术界继续相关有效创新的另外一种方式是打破学科之间的传统界限 — — 创新发现往往诞生在这些前沿领域。


To that end, universities should update their organizational structure, moving away from clearly delineated departments in order to create a kind of continuum across the arts, humanities, and sciences.

为了实现这一目标，大学应当升级其组织结构，避免明确划定院系界限，以创造一种跨艺术、科学、人文的连续统一体。


Students should be encouraged to take courses in multiple disciplines, so that they can weave those lessons and experiences into new patterns of knowledge.

大学应鼓励学生学习多学科课程，以便他们能将经验和教训融入新的知识体系。


To make this process sustainable, universities should ensure that the courses and curricula they offer help students to develop the skills that a fast-changing labor market demands.

为使过程更具可持续性，大学应当确保所开设的课程能帮学生学到适应劳动力市场需求快速变化的新技术。


This means not just creating new curricula today, but also updating them every few years, in order to account for new trends and discoveries in areas ranging from artificial intelligence and Big Data to alternative energy sources and genome editing.

这意味着不仅现在要开设创新课程，而且要每隔几年更新一次，以便纳入从人工智能、大数据到替代能源和基因编辑领域的新发现和新趋势。


Professors, for their part, should approach their job as mentors of future leaders in science, technology, the arts, and humanities, rather than attempting to mold students in their own intellectual image.

对于教授们而言，他们应当成为科学、技术、艺术和人文等领域未来领袖的指导者，而不是试图让学生继承自己的学术衣钵。


Of course, the latter approach can be useful if the goal is to advance the popularity of one’s own research program and to ensure that one’s own ideas and perspective endure.

当然，如果目标是提高自身研究项目的普及度以及确保自身理念和观点能延续下去，后一种方法可能是有效的。


But that is not the fundamental mission of academia.

但这却与学术界的基本使命不符。


The louder the consensus in the echo chambers of academia become, the greater the ego boost for those who inhabit those chambers.

学术界面对相关共识的回声越响亮，就越能激发那些成果持有者的自我意识。


But history shows that progress is sometimes advocated by a soft voice in the background, like that of Albert Einstein during his early career.

但历史显示像阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的早期职业生涯一样，有时柔和的背景声更能推动进步。


Truth and consensus are not always the same.

真相和共识并不总是一回事。


Diversity of opinion – which implies diversity of gender, ethnicity, and background – is vital to support creativity, discovery, and progress.

见解的多样性 — — 意味着性别、种族和背景的多样性 — — 对支持创新发展和进步起到关键的作用。


That is why it is so important for prizes and professional associations to be used not to reinforce mainstream perspectives, but rather to encourage independent thought and reward innovation.

这也解释了为什么不能用奖项和专业协会来强化主流观点，反而要用它们来鼓励独立思考和奖励创新的原因。


This does not mean that all opinions should be considered equal, but rather that alternative views should be debated and vetted on merit alone.

但这并不意味着所有见解都应视为平等，而意味着应当探讨其他观点，并以价值作为审核的唯一依据。


We in academia cannot continue to pat ourselves on the back, celebrating our own privileges and failing to look at the world in new and relevant ways.

我们学术界不能再继续宠溺自己，忙于庆幸自己的特权而不能以新的相关方式看待这个世界。


If we are to defend the freedom of our enterprise, we must restore dialogue with the broader public and ensure that the relevance of our work is well understood – including by us.

如果要捍卫创新自由，我们必须恢复与广大公众进行对话，并确保所有人充分理解我们工作的相关性 — — 这其中也包括我们自身。


The Closing of the Academic Mind

学术精神的落幕


LONDON – I would wager that I have been Chancellor of more universities than anyone alive today.

伦敦 — — 我敢打赌我比现在活着的人当过更多所大学的校长。


This is partly because when I was Governor of Hong Kong, I was made Chancellor of every university in the city.

这部分因为在担任香港总督期间，我被任命为这座城市所有大学的校长。


I protested that it would surely be better for the universities to choose their own constitutional heads.

我抗议说应当让大学自主选择行政领导。


But the universities would not allow me to resign gracefully.

但大学却不允许我轻易辞职。


So for five years I enjoyed the experience of giving tens of thousands of students their degrees and watching what this rite of passage meant for them and their families.

因此有5年时间，我享受着为数以万计学子授予学位的体验，并亲眼目睹了这样的仪式对学子和他们的家庭意味着什么。


When I came back to Britain in 1997, I was asked to become Chancellor of Newcastle University.

1997年回到英国时，我被任命为纽卡斯尔大学的校长。


Then, in 2003, I was elected Chancellor by the graduates of Oxford University, one of the world’s greatest institutions of learning.

之后在2003年，我再次被毕业生推选为世界最伟大的学府之一，牛津大学的校长。


So it should not be surprising that I have strong views about what it means to be a university and to teach, do research, or study at one.

因此我对大学意味着什么、以及对校内教学、研究或学习有着强烈的观点也就不足为奇了。


Universities should be bastions of freedom in any society.

大学应当是一切社会的自由堡垒。


They should be free from government interference in their primary purposes of research and teaching; and they should control their own academic governance.

它们主要的研究和教学功能不应受到政府的干涉；它们应当能够控制自身的学术治理举措。


I do not believe it is possible for a university to become or remain a world-class institution if these conditions do not exist.

如果上述条件得不到满足，我不相信一所学校能够成为一所世界级的学府。


The role of a university is to promote the clash of ideas, to test the results of research with other scholars, and to impart new knowledge to students.

大学的功能是制造思想碰撞，与其他学者一道检验研究成果，以及对学生传授新的知识。


Freedom of speech is thus fundamental to what universities are, enabling them to sustain a sense of common humanity and uphold the mutual tolerance and understanding that underpin any free society.

言论自由因此对大学而言至关重要，它能让学者保持人类共同情感，并捍卫支撑任何自由社会的共同的理解和宽容。


That, of course, makes universities dangerous to authoritarian governments, which seek to stifle the ability to raise and attempt to answer difficult questions.

这当然导致独裁政府将大学视为危险，并试图遏制大学对疑难问题的提出和解答。


But if any denial of academic liberty is a blow struck against the meaning of a university, the irony today is that some of the most worrying attacks on these values have been coming from inside universities.

但如果任何否定学术自由的行为都是对大学意义的打击，那么今天最具有讽刺意义的却是某些对这些价值最令人担忧的攻击来源于大学内部。


In the United States and the United Kingdom, some students and teachers now seek to constrain argument and debate.

在美国和英国，某些学生和老师现在试图限制争鸣和辩论。


They contend that people should not be exposed to ideas with which they strongly disagree.

他们争辩说人们根本不应该听到他们强烈反对的想法。


Moreover, they argue that history should be rewritten to expunge the names (though not the endowments) of those who fail to pass today’s tests of political correctness.

此外，他们还提出应当将未能通过今天政治正确性测试者的名字（虽非才能）从历史上抹去。


Thomas Jefferson and Cecil Rhodes, among others, have been targeted.

托马斯·杰斐逊和塞西尔·罗兹就包括在这些名字当中。


And how would Churchill and Washington fare if the same tests were applied to them?

如果对丘吉尔和华盛顿进行同样的测试，他们的成绩将会如何？


Some people are being denied the chance to speak as well – so-called “no platforming”, in the awful jargon of some clearly not very literate campuses.

在某些显然不太有文化的校园常见的可怕行话（所谓的“无平台化 ” ） 里，某些人说话的机会被彻底剥夺。


There are calls for “safe spaces” where students can be protected from anything that assaults their sense of what is moral and appropriate.

有些人呼吁建立安全空间，确保违反“道德”和“恰当”认知的任何行为都不会被学生接触到。


This reflects and inevitably nurtures a harmful politics of victimization – defining one’s own identity (and thus one’s interests) in opposition to others.

这反应并必将孕育一种有害的牺牲政治 — — 即划定与别人相对立的自我身份（和自我利益 ） 。


When I was a student 50 years ago, my principal teacher was a leading Marxist historian and former member of the Communist Party.

50年前当我还是学生时，我主要的老师是一位著名的马克思主义历史学家兼前共产党。


The British security services were deeply suspicious of him.

英国安全部门非常怀疑他。


He was a great historian and teacher, but these days I might be encouraged to think that he had threatened my “safe space.”

他是一位伟大的历史学家和教师，但现在我却可能在外界鼓励下认为我的“安全空间”被他侵犯了。


In fact, he made me a great deal better informed, more open to discussion of ideas that challenged my own, more capable of distinguishing between an argument and a quarrel, and more prepared to think for myself.

事实上，他在很大程度上拓宽了我的视野，让我以开放的态度面对挑战自己想法的讨论，更有能力区分辩论和争吵，也更能独立思考事情的对错。


Of course, some ideas – incitement of racial hatred, gender hostility, or political violence – are anathema in every free society.

当然种族仇恨、性别敌意或政治暴力煽动等某些想法在任何一个自由社会都是被深恶痛绝的。


Liberty requires some limits (decided freely by democratic argument under the rule of law) in order to exist.

自由的存在需要（在法治条件下由民主辩论自由决定的）某种限度。


Universities should be trusted to exercise that degree of control themselves.

应当相信大学有能力加以自控。


But intolerance of debate, of discussion, and of particular branches of scholarship should never be tolerated.

但不容许辩论、探讨和特定学术领域的存在是永远不能被容忍的。


As the great political philosopher Karl Popper taught us, the only thing we should be intolerant of is intolerance itself.

正如伟大的政治哲学家卡尔·波普教导我们的那样，我们唯一不能容忍的特质应当是偏狭。


That is especially true at universities.

尤其在大学里更应当这样。


Yet some American and British academics and students are themselves undermining freedom; paradoxically, they have the liberty to do so.

而某些美国和英国的学者和学生本身就在破坏自由；荒谬的是，他们有自由这样做。


Meanwhile, universities in China and Hong Kong are faced with threats to their autonomy and freedom, not from within, but from an authoritarian government.

此外，中国和香港大学的自主权和自由正面临威胁，这些威胁并非来自于学校内部，而是来自于独裁政府。


In Hong Kong, the autonomy of universities and free speech itself, guaranteed in the city’s Basic Law and the 50-year treaty between Britain and China on the city’s status, are under threat.

在香港，城市基本法和中英50年条约共同规定的大学自主权及言论自由本身正在遭受威胁。


The rationale seems to be that, because students strongly supported the pro-democracy protests in 2014, the universities where they study should be brought to heel.

理由似乎是因为学生强烈支持2014年的民主抗议活动，他们所就读的大学应当受到惩罚。


So the city’s government blunders away, stirring up trouble, clearly on the orders of the government in Beijing.

于是香港政府匆匆忙忙地挑起事端，显然是在北京政府的命令之下。


Indeed, the Chinese authorities only recently showed what they think of treaty obligations and of the “golden age” of Sino-British relations (much advertised by British ministers), by abducting a British citizen (and four other Hong Kong residents) on the city’s streets.

事实上，通过在香港大街上绑架一名英国公民（和其他四名香港居民）的行为，中国政府最近才向外界表明他们对中英关系“黄金年代”条约义务（受到英国大臣们广为宣传）的看法。


The five were publishing books that exposed some of the dirty secrets of China’s leaders.

这5人出版的书籍揭露了中国领导人某些不可见人的秘密。


On the mainland, the Chinese Communist Party has launched the biggest crackdown on universities since the aftermath of the killings in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

在大陆，中国共产党对大学发动了继1989年天安门广场屠杀事件后最大规模的镇压。


There is to be no discussion of so-called Western values in China’s universities. Only Marxism can be taught.

中国大学不允许讨论所谓西方价值观，只允许教授马克思主义。


Did no one tell President Xi Jinping and his Politburo colleagues where Karl Marx came from?

难道没有人告诉习近平主席及其政治局同事卡尔·马克思从哪里来？


The trouble these days is precisely that they know little about Marx but a lot about Lenin.

现在的问题恰恰是他们对马克思知之甚少，但却对列宁了解颇多。


Westerners should take a closer interest in what is happening in China’s universities and what that tells us about the real values underpinning scholarship, teaching, and the academy.

西方人应密切关注中国大学正在发生的事件，以及它们对支撑学术、教学和学院的实际价值是什么？


Compare and contrast, as students are asked to do.

我们要学会像学生那样进行对比和比较。


Do you want universities where the government decides what it is allegedly safe for you to learn and discuss?

由政府决定什么能安全学习和探讨的大学是否符合你的愿望？


Or do you want universities that regard the idea of a “safe space” – in terms of closing down debate in case it offends someone – as an oxymoron in an academic setting?

你心目中的大学是否将“安全空间”理念 — — 即在冒犯他人的情况下停止讨论 — — 视为学术环境中的矛盾修饰法？


Western students should think occasionally about their counterparts in Hong Kong and China who must fight for freedoms that they take for granted – and too often abuse.

西方学生应时时想起他们在香港和中国的同伴，这些人仍在争取他们所熟视无睹 — — 甚至往往随意滥用的自由。


The New Brain Drain in Science

科研领域新一轮人才流失


DUBAI – In December 2013, the Nobel laureate physicist Peter Higgs told The Guardian that if he were seeking a job in academia today, “I don’t think I would be regarded as productive enough.”

迪拜 — — 2013年12月，诺贝尔物理学奖得主彼得·希格斯在接受卫报采访时表示，如果他今天在学术界求职 ， “ 我恐怕不会被认为是最高效的。


Having published fewer than ten papers since his groundbreaking work in 1964, Higgs believes that no university would employ him nowadays.

”因为在1964年发表突破之作后迄今为止仅发表过不到十篇论文，希格斯认为今天没有哪家大学会雇佣他。


Academics are well acquainted with the notion of “publish or perish.”

“出版或者毁灭”是当今学者熟悉的概念。


They must publish their work in peer-reviewed journals increasingly often to climb the career ladder, protect their jobs, and secure funding for their institutions.

他们必须越来越多地在同行评议杂志上发表作品，才能攀登职业阶梯、保住工作岗位和为所在机构争取研究经费。


But what happens to scientists and other scholars, such as those in the Middle East, who have different research concerns from – and scant connections to – the professional journals that can make or break an academic/scientific career?

但那些研究重点迥异且与今天能造就或毁灭学术/科研生涯的专业期刊鲜有联系的科学家和其他学者（比方说中东学者）又该怎么办？


Scholars and institutions with high publishing rates in the established journals receive better productivity scores, which translate into bigger rewards, in terms of enhanced careers and greater research funding.

在著名期刊拥有高出版率的学者和科研机构效率得分较高，进而在职业生涯发展和研究经费支持方面得到更多奖励。


Whether the work they are publishing has a measurable impact on their field of study is, sadly, too often a secondary concern.

但可悲的是，他们所发表的作品对所在研究领域能否产生可以度量的影响却往往不那么被外界关注。


The incentives they face mean that quantity often comes before quality.

他们所面临的激励机制意味着数量往往比质量重要。


Academic journals determine the various disciplinary rankings that academic institutions are compelled to climb, which leads institutions to hire and retain only those scholars who can produce at high rates.

学术期刊决定科研机构被动研究的学科领域排名，从而导致科研机构仅仅雇佣并保留那些高效率的学者。


This has given rise to a deeper, twofold problem: academic journals have become disproportionately influential, and they have placed a premium on empirical research.

由此导致了更深层次的双重问题：学术期刊的影响力已经过于庞大，而且它们过分鼓励实证研究。


With respect to the first problem, journals are gradually replacing institutions as the arbiters of quality within academic communities.

在第一个问题上，期刊正逐步取代科研机构成为学术成果质量的评判者。


Scholars in almost any discipline seeking jobs at “A-level” institutions must publish in a select few A-level journals that are seen as gateways.

几乎任何领域想在“A级”研究机构求职的学者都必须在几本被公认为入门通道的A级杂志上发表研究成果。


These journals’ editorial boards increasingly privilege positivist theoretical work – meaning research that is based on empirical data analysis.

上述期刊的编辑委员会越来越偏爱实证主义理论研究作品 — — 也就是说以实证数据分析为基础的研究。