Koizumi’s successors, Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, have sought to engage China over the past two years, with summits in Beijing and a successful visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Japan last year.

小泉的继任者，安倍晋三和福田康夫首相，过去两年来一直试图改善与中国的关系，中日双方召开了北京峰会，而且去年中国总理温家宝的访日取得了成功。


Hu’s trip is likely follow the example set by Wen.

胡的访问很有可能将温的成果延续下去。


He will emphasize common strategic interests, highlight mutual economic benefits, generate positive public opinion, and promote further exchanges.

他将强调双方共同的战略利益，强调双边经济互惠，促进积极的公众舆论，并推动两国进一步的交流。


Japan is not only one of China’s largest trade and investment partners, it is also the most powerful neighbor with which China wants to be on good terms, partly to showcase that China’s rise is not a threat to Asia and the rest of the world.

日本不仅是中国最大的贸易和投资伙伴，也是中国希望与之维护友好关系的实力最强的邻居，中国这样做的部分目的是向亚洲和世界其他国家展示中国的崛起并不对任何人构成威胁。


Japan, whose economic recovery is attributable largely to its deepening ties with China in recent years, is also eager to demonstrate that it regards China not as a threat but as an opportunity, as least in economic terms.

而日本近年以来的经济复苏应该在很大程度上归功于与中国日益深入的关系，因此日本也急于表明，日本并没有把中国看作是一种威胁，而是一种机遇，这样的看法至少在经济领域能够成立。


It was 30 years ago that former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, the father of today’s prime minister, signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty with China.

就在30年前，现任日本首相的父亲，前任日本首相福田赳夫，与中国签订了《和平友好条约 》 。


The two governments will certainly use Hu’s visit to celebrate the anniversary with new programs designed to enhance bilateral understanding and friendship.

中日两国政府肯定会利用胡锦涛这次的访日契机制定旨在促进双边了解和友谊的新计划，来庆祝《条约》签订的三十周年纪念日。


But, unlike three decades ago, when the Japanese regarded China as one of their most favored countries, public opinion in both countries nowadays registers more negative feelings than positive ones.

但与30年前情况不同的是，当日本把中国看作最惠国之一的时候，日中两国目前的公众舆论所显示出来的负面情感却远远多于善意。


Behind the smiles, the polite interactions, and the cautiously worded diplomatic language, strong undercurrents of suspicion remain.

在微笑、礼貌的接触以及措辞小心翼翼的外交语言背后，仍然存在着力量强大的怀疑的暗流。


One problem is the disputed waters of the East China Sea.

问题之一是中国东海的争议水域。


Despite new joint projects in energy efficiency and environmental protection, areas in which China ranks Japan as the best performer among industrialized countries, the two sides remain in bitterly divided over these territorial waters, which contain huge potential oil, gas, and other mineral deposits. Even after many rounds of talks, no resolution is in sight, and Hu’s visit is not expected to produce any breakthroughs.

尽管在能源效率和环境保护领域开展了新的合作项目，而且中国在上述领域里把日本列为工业化国家首选的合作伙伴，但中日双方依然在地区性水域问题上存在着严重的对立，而在中日存在着严重争议的水域，很有可能蕴藏着大量的石油、天然气和其他矿产资源。


Then there are strategic suspicions.

其次是严重的战略怀疑。


Fukuda has dropped Abe’s talk about an “arch of freedom” – an effort to forge a bloc with the United States, Australia, and India.

福田停止了安倍有关“自由圈”的谈判 — — 放弃了与美国、澳大利亚和印度组成联合集团的努力。


But Japan remains concerned about China’s rapidly modernizing military, while China worries about a potential US-Japan containment strategy for China, especially in the case of a crisis in the Taiwan Straits.

但日本依然对中国军事领域的快速现代化表示忧虑，而中国则担心美日可能联手对中国采取遏制策略，特别是如果台海地区发生危机。


So, although both sides endorse the idea of a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship,” and despite progress bilateral on military exchanges, mutual trust and confidence-building have a long way to go.

因此，尽管中日双方都对“互惠互利的战略关系”深表赞赏，而且在双边军事交流方面也取得了不少进步，但是在重拾信心，建立互信等领域还有很多工作有待完成。


Moreover, today’s “warm politics, cool economics” trend is the reverse of the “cold politics, warm economics” pattern under Koizumi.

此外，当前“政治热、经济冷”的趋势正在取代小泉治下的“政治冷、经济热”的模式。


Last year, Japan’s committed investment projects in China fell 24% from 2006, while actual investment volume decreased by 25%, partly owing to regulatory changes in China regarding foreign investment.

去年，日本在中国的专属投资项目比2006年降低了24 % ， 而实际投资额则缩减了25 % ， 这一变化部分来源于中国在外资流入方面的监管变化。


Recent food safety issues, such as the “poisoned dumplings” cases, have clearly heightened the Japanese public’s sensitivity about Chinese exports.

不久前所发生的安全问题，比如“毒饺子”事件，已经提高了日本公众对中国出口商品的警惕。


Finally, historical issues could still resurface to cause new problems.

最后，历史事件可以重新浮出水面造成新的问题。


While Fukuda has made it clear that he will not visit the Yasukuni Shrine, 160 other parliamentarians paid homage at the site last month, an indication that conservative forces in Japan remain strong and that future prime ministers may not abstain from visiting Yasukuni.

尽管福田明确了他将不再参拜敬国神社，仍然有160名议会成员在上个月到场表示了敬意。 这一现象表明日本的保守派势力仍然十分强大，因此未来的日本首相不一定会放弃参拜神社的权利。


And Japan has so far failed to live up to its treaty obligations to clean up between 700,000 and two million chemical weapons that were abandoned in China by the Japanese army at the end of World War II, another potential flash point if any of these weapons causes casualties in China.

而且日本到目前为止未能履行条约中所应承担的义务，清理二次大战末期日军遗弃在中国的700，000到2百万件化学武器。 如果这些武器在中国造成人员伤亡，可能提醒中国民众再次回忆起那段痛苦的经历。


A Fresh Start for Europe

欧洲的新起点


As Europe’s leaders gather in Portugal to put the finishing touches on the new, slimmed down, Reform Treaty, it might be helpful if they all pretended that the last 50 years of European integration had never taken place.

当欧洲的领导人们在葡萄牙汇聚一堂，对新的、经过精减的《改革公约》进行最后润色的时候，如果他们能佯装过去50年的欧洲一体化从未发生那就好了。


Let’s then imagine what Europe needs to do to confront its most pressing challenges, especially if it were able to do so without the political constraints of 50 years of EU deal-making and ramshackle institution-building.

就让我们想象一下欧洲为了应对最迫在眉睫的挑战需要怎么做，特别是它如果能够摆脱50年来欧盟讨价还价和朝三暮四的制度建设的政治制约。


On top of that, let us make a major leap of imagination and suppose that even though this scenario of the EU at “Year Zero” means we would not have a half-century of intra-European cooperation to draw on, the nations that today make up the EU would nevertheless be keen to adopt far-reaching joint policies.

在此之前，让我们再发挥一下跳跃式的想象，假设尽管欧盟“零年”的情形意味着我们没有长达半个世纪的欧洲内部合作的基础，但当今组成欧盟的各国仍然渴望实施长期的共同政策。


Let’s suspend our disbelief, then, and try to imagine what Europe could and should be doing to tackle some of the most far-reaching and obstinate policy challenges that will determine whether the next 50 years are as constructive as the last.

那么，让我们搁置怀疑，并想象一下欧洲可以并且应该怎么做以应对那些最为长远和困难的政策挑战。 这些挑战会决定未来五十年是否会和过去的五十年一样具有建设性。


Or, to put it another way, let’s look at our problems in the light of the EU’s existing mechanisms and its potential for creating far-reaching new policies, and then let’s ask ourselves why the EU isn’t realizing its own potential and delivering the goods.

或者，换句话说，让我们在现有机制下来看待这些问题及欧盟创造长期新政策的潜力，然后再让我们扪心自问欧盟为何没有发挥潜力、实现目标。


Broadly, we see three areas in which Europe’s policymakers at both the national and EU levels can do better: global challenges where Europe could show greater leadership, the creation and strengthening of human capital within the EU and worldwide, and improvement in the effectiveness of the EU’s own political machinery.

从大处讲，欧洲的政策制定者们在国家和欧盟层面上的三个领域可以做得更好：在全球性挑战方面欧洲可以发挥更大的领导作用；在欧盟和世界范围内创造和强化人力资本；提升欧盟自身政治机器的效率。


Europe needs a clearer and more recognizable global agenda.

欧洲需要一份更清晰和更能被认可的全球议程。


It needs to build substantially on its leadership on climate change by adopting much tougher EU goals, and then use its international economic and trade clout to champion new global emissions standards that scientific opinion can accept as meaningful.

它需要通过实施更为严格的欧盟目标来大幅提升在气候变化方面的领导力，然后运用其国际经济与贸易的影响力来引领新的全球排放标准。 这些标准应该被科学界认定为有意义的。


On conflict and security issues, Europe should be advancing to a new phase in which it takes much clearer and unambiguous positions on issues ranging from nuclear proliferation to sanctions against Burma’s military regime.

在冲突和安全问题上，欧洲应该步入一个新阶段，在从核扩散到制裁缅甸军政府的问题上表明更清晰和坚定的立场。


The purpose must be to establish Europe as a forceful and fair-minded player on the world stage, rather than as a “broad church” in which different viewpoints co-exist.

这样做的目的是为了让欧洲在世界舞台上扮演一个强既有力又公平的角色，而不是一个不同观点共存的“大圣堂 ” 。


The aim should be that “soft power” instruments like EU development aid and economic partnerships would be linked with a growing sense of political and security outreach to ensure Europe is a global player to be reckoned with.

其目标是将如欧盟发展援助和经济伙伴关系这样的“软实力”工具与日益增长的政治和安全保障感联系起来，从而确立欧洲的全球作用。


That means, of course, that the EU should seek to widen its transatlantic thinking so that the EU and the United States cooperate more closely on defining – and thus protecting – their common interests in a world where together they account for little more than 10% of the total population.

当然，这就意味着欧盟应该寻求扩展其跨大西洋的思维以便欧盟和美国在定义—进而保护—它们在世界上的共同利益方面更紧密地合作。 两者的总人口只不过占世界总人口的百分之十多一点。


These points are far from a blanket criticism of the EU’s efforts to create a common foreign and security policy.

这些观点甚至不算是对欧盟创建共同外交与安全政策的努力的委婉批评。


But they are intended to underline what many people in Europe know very well, which is that the speed with which problems concerning international development and conflict are growing easily outpaces the EU’s policy responses so far.

但它们旨在强调一些欧洲的许多人都再明白不过的事实，即与国际发展和冲突相关的问题恶化的速度早已超过了欧盟的政策回应速度。


Building more human capital in Europe and worldwide is a crucially important element in future EU activities.

在欧洲和世界范围内建立更多的人力资本是欧盟未来活动中至关重要的因素。


Education is by far the most profitable investment Europe can make, so it should be launching its most ambitious strategy ever to create a new knowledge dynamic and employment inside the EU while helping to expand greatly education in the world’s poorest countries.

教育是目前为止欧盟可以进行的回报最高的投资。 因此它应该启动有史以来最为宏伟的计划，在内部创造新的求知动力和就业机会，同时帮助世界上最穷困的国家大力发展教育事业。


Europe also must at last grasp the nettle of immigration policy – something that has persistently eluded generations of political leaders.

欧洲还终究必须解决移民政策的痼疾—这个让好几代领导人都避之不及的问题。


Agreed EU-wide immigration rules are needed to reconcile shrinking Europe’s hunger for imported labor with widespread fears of cultural tensions and social unrest.

我们需要一套经各方批准的全欧洲的移民法规来协调那种通过广泛传播的对文化压力和社会不安定的恐惧来抑制欧洲对外来劳力的极大需求的做法。


It won’t be easy to create a fairer and more multi-cultural Europe, but failure to address this problem openly will carry an even heavier price.

建设一个更为公平和多文化的欧洲决非易事，但在这个问题上应对不力会让我们付出更为沉重的代价。


By much the same token, Europe’s governments should be making a determined new effort to strengthen Europeans’ sense of a shared history and common values.

同理，欧洲各国的政府应该付出更为坚定的努力来强化欧洲人的共同历史感和共同价值观。


A stronger European identity is the soundest basis for creating the more multi-cultural society that demographers regard as inevitable.

一种更强烈的欧洲认同感是创造多文化社会的最坚实基础。 这样的社会在人口统计学家们看来是不可避免的。


Meanwhile, doubts still surround the political and institutional machinery the EU will need to realize these and other ambitious goals.

同时，在欧盟实现其宏伟目标所需要的政治与制度机器上仍然疑云笼罩。


Sighs of relief greeted EU leaders’ mid-year agreement on a Reform Treaty aimed at overhauling the Union’s decision-making mechanisms, but it is still uncertain whether the new pact will survive the ratification process in 27 countries.

欧盟领导人们在全面检视该组织的决策机制的《改革公约》上达成的年中协议令人可以舒一口气，但这一新协定能否得到27个成员国的批准仍然是个未知数。


We believe, though, that the increased use of qualified majority voting by member governments embodied in the new treaty should also be applied to the ratification process itself.

但我们认为新公约所规定的、正被各成员国越来越多地使用的有效多数票（qualified majority voting）方式，也应该适用于公约的批准过程本身。


That way, if a small minority of EU governments prove unable to ratify the treaty, it would not be torpedoed the way that its predecessor, the Constitutional Treaty, was in 2005.

如此一来，即便欧盟少数的成员国政府不能批准该公约，那么它也不会像其前身《宪法公约》在2005年时一样前功尽弃。


How to Help the African Dust Bowl

如何帮助非洲尘暴区


SEATTLE – Picture a small farm under a blazing hot sky.

西雅图 — — 想象一下炎热的天空下有一家小农场。


An intense drought is afflicting the surrounding region, prospects for the next harvest are bleak, and the financial system lacks the capacity to provide the loans farmers need to get by.

严重的干旱影响着周围地区，下一次收成前景十分暗淡，而金融系统却不具备为农民提供应急贷款的能力。


This scenario describes today’s southern Africa, which is in the grips of an epic drought.

这副景象描绘的是今天的南部非洲，这里正在遭受一场历史性干旱的侵袭。


As it happens, it also describes eastern Nebraska in the “Dust Bowl” years of the early 1930s – a period through which my own family lived.

这碰巧也是内布拉斯加州东部二十世纪三十年代初“尘暴”天气的写照 — — 这是我和家人的亲身经历。


My father, Ralph Raikes, was the first in his family to graduate from college.

我的父亲拉尔夫·莱克斯是家族大学毕业的第一人。


After working for Standard Oil in California, he stopped by his parents’ farm on his way to Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he planned to pursue graduate studies at MIT.

毕业后，他先在加利福尼亚标准石油公司就职，而后在他父母的农场中途停留，打算之后前往马萨诸塞州剑桥市攻读麻省理工学院的研究生学位。


He never made it.

他没能实现这个愿望。


He had to stay in Nebraska and help my grandfather save the family farm from the banks, which had already repossessed one-third of the land.

他被迫留在了内布拉斯加，帮助我的祖父挽救家庭农场免于被银行收回，当时银行已经收回了三分之一的土地。


The most important change my father made was in his mindset: he came to think of the farm not as a subsistence operation, but as a family business.

我父亲最重要的改变在于心态：他没有把农场视作维持生计的小本经营，而是视作家族生意。


He turned to the University of Nebraska, where he had received his undergraduate degree, and acquired hybrid corn and other improved seeds that the university was developing.

他求助于自己本科毕业的内布拉斯加大学，从那里拿到了这所大学正在研发的杂交玉米和其他改良种子。


Then he tracked inputs and weather conditions, which was rarely done at that time.

而后他严密监控投入的生产资料及天气条件，这在当时是非常罕见的。


My father realized that he couldn’t go it alone, and that he would need better access to financing.

我父亲意识到他不能单打独斗，他需要好的渠道进行融资。


So he helped guide – first as a customer, and later as an adviser and director – Farm Credit, a national banking cooperative network, in its efforts to help local farmers weather the Dust Bowl years.

因此他协助创建了农业信贷协会 — — 最初是以客户的身份，后来逐渐成为顾问和董事，这是一套国家银行合作网络，其目的是帮助当地农民度过尘暴天气。


He also helped found the Nebraska Farm Business Association, which aggregated the data that he and his peers collected, so that they could determine best practices.

他还协助建立了内布拉斯加州农场业协会，该协会对他和同行搜集的数据进行汇总，以便确定最佳的行为惯例。


And he worked together with my mother, Alice, who ran the family poultry business.

他与我的母亲爱丽丝一起工作，我母亲负责经营家族的禽类企业。


Farm Credit and the University of Nebraska’s labs and greenhouses emerged out of United States government programs that had been created to improve the agriculture sector’s performance.

农业信贷协会和内布拉斯加大学实验室及温室源于美国政府计划，目的是改善农业领域的业绩。


That sector was under water in 1933; with one-quarter of the population living on farms at the time, more investment was needed.

1933年农业境况低迷；当时有1/4的人口以务农为生，迫切需要加大对这一领域的投资。


That year, Congress passed the first “farm bill,” the Agricultural Adjustment Act, which boosted investment in the rural economy and helped lift farm income by 50% within two years.

那一年，国会通过了首部“农业法案 ” — —即“农业调整法案 ” — —推动了对农村经济的投资，成功地在两年内将农民收入提高了50 % 。


Federal farm programs treated farming as a business enterprise, enabling businessmen like my father to prosper.

联邦农业计划将农场视为一种商业企业，从而使我父亲这样的商人能够兴旺发达。


Eighty years later, African farmers need to make the same switch, by treating their subsistence operations as family-owned enterprises.

八年后，非洲农民需要做出同样的转变，把维持生计的小本经营看成家族产业。


And, like my father during the Dust Bowl years, they have novel means at their disposal: a wide range of new seeds and other technologies have been developed for African family farms – those with 4-5 acres or less – to use in the field.

而且，就像当年尘暴期我的父亲一样，他们不乏新的手段可以支配：为非洲农场研发了各式各样的新种子和其他技术 — — 那些拥有4-5英亩土地或者更少的农户可以在自己的田里利用新技术和种子。


In October, a group of scientists received the World Food Prize for producing and disseminating a sweet potato variety that adds vitamin A to Sub-Saharan Africans’ diets, and other new seed varieties are helping farmers survive the harvest-crushing drought.

10月，一群科学家因生产和传播一种新品种甘薯而获得世界粮食奖，这种新品种甘薯在撒哈拉以南非洲人的饮食中加入了维他命A，此外还有其他新型种子品种正在帮助农民度过影响农业收成的旱灾。


But, as a recent report from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) makes clear, government investment must follow the science.

但非洲绿色革命联盟（AGRA）最近的一份报告表明，政府投资必须遵循科学原则。


Agriculture comprises almost two-thirds of Sub-Saharan Africa’s workforce, and in 2003 the African Union called for countries to increase their investment in the sector to an ambitious 10% of all government spending.

农业几乎占到撒哈拉以南非洲劳动力的三分之二，2003年非洲联盟雄心勃勃地呼吁各国将农业部门投资提升到所有政府开支的10 % 。


Only 13 countries answered that call, but their investments – in research and development, services that help farmers take advantage of new research findings, credit and financing initiatives, commodity exchanges, and other marketing efforts – have already paid dividends.

只有十三个国家响应了这一呼吁，但他们的投资 — — 在研发领域、帮助农民利用新研究成果的服务、信贷和融资计划、商品交易所和其他营销努力 — — 均已经产生了丰厚的红利。


Those 13 countries have experienced marked improvements in agricultural production, per capita GDP, and nutrition.

这十三个国家的农业生产、人均国内总产值和营养状况均得到显著的改善。


Government investment paves the way for private-sector investment, and it could be a game-changer for African farmers, who have operated at subsistence levels for far too long.

政府投资为私营部门投资铺平了道路，对长期以来停留在维持生计低水平上的非洲农民来说，这可能彻底改变游戏规则。


Only about 6% of rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa receive loans from financial institutions.

只有6%的撒哈拉以南非洲农村家庭可以从金融机构那里获得贷款。


Moreover, almost two-thirds of African farmland soil is missing key nutrients, and many farmers lack the technical knowledge and resources to restore their land’s fertility, leaving them unable to take full advantage of new technologies.

不仅如此，近2/3的非洲农田土壤缺少关键营养元素，而且很多农民缺乏恢复土地肥力的资源和技术知识，导致他们无法充分利用新技术。


African farmers growing new crop varieties are increasing their yields by only 28%, compared to 88% for farmers in Asia.

非洲农民种植新作物品种单产仅增加28 % ， 而亚洲农民的增长比例则高达88%左右。


My parents made certain that all five of their children graduated from college.

我的父母确保他们的每一个子女都读到大学毕业。


Like them, farmers everywhere want to ensure that their children lead healthy, prosperous lives; and they all recognize the importance of education.

像他们一样，世界各地的农民都希望确保自己的孩子过上健康、富足的生活；而且他们都认识到教育的重要性。


The farmers I have met around the world often just want to sell enough extra produce to pay their health bills and put their children through school.

我在世界各地碰到的农民往往只希望出售足够的多余农产品来支付自己的医疗费用和送子女上学。


They take advantage of opportunities when they arise, and they position their children to reap larger profits in the future.

他们在机会出现时紧紧抓住，他们努力确保自己的孩子能在未来能够获取更大的利润。


One hopes that an American story of economic progress, like that of my family, will soon be an African story, too.

我们希望像我家这样的美国经济进步故事将会很快发生在非洲。


With so many new innovations becoming available, Africa’s family farmers need their governments to invest in their future.

随着诸多创新成果集中上市，非洲家庭农场主需要他们的政府为他们的未来投资。


If they do, that future will look much better than today’s dusty and desperate reality.

如果政府做到这一点，未来将比今天尘土飞扬的绝望现实要好得多。


Africa at Risk

身处危险中的非洲


ADDIS ABABA – Climate change will hit Africa – a continent that has contributed virtually nothing to bring it about – first and hardest.

亚的斯亚贝巴 — — 气候变化最先、也最沉重地打击了非洲这块从未造成过气候变化的大陆。


Aside from Antarctica, Africa is the only continent that has not industrialized.

除南极洲以外，非洲恐怕是唯一一块尚未实现工业化的大陆。


Indeed, since 1980’s the industrialization that had taken place in Africa has by and large been reversed.

事实上，在20世纪80年代以后，非洲大陆的工业化进程就总体而言已经发生了逆转。


Africa has thus contributed nothing to the historical accumulation of greenhouse gases through carbon-based industrialization.

非洲也因此没有在以碳为基础的工业化温室气体积累中扮演任何角色。


Moreover, its current contribution is also negligible, practically all of it coming from deforestation and degradation of forests and farmland.

此外，非洲目前的碳排放也微乎其微，非洲所有的碳排放几乎全部来自森林砍伐以及森林和农田的逐步退化。


Yet climate change will hit Africa hardest, because it will cripple the continent’s vulnerable agricultural sector, on which 70% of the population depends.

但气候变化对非洲的打击却最大，因为它严重影响到非洲大陆脆弱的农业部门，而农业部门养活了70%的非洲人口。


All estimates of the possible impact of global warming suggest that a large part of the continent will become drier, and that the continent as a whole will experience greater climatic variability.

对全球变暖可能影响的所有预测都表明非洲大部分地区将会更加干旱，而从整体而言非洲大陆将出现更为剧烈的气候变化。


We know what the impact of periodic droughts have been on the lives of tens of millions of Africans.

我们已经知道周期性干旱对数千万非洲民众生活所造成的影响。


We can therefore imagine what the impact of a drier climate on agriculture is likely to be.

因此我们可以想见气候变干可能对农业造成的影响。


Conditions in this vital economic sector will become even more precarious than they currently are.

与现有状况相比，这一生死攸关的经济领域的稳定性将会进一步下降。


Africa will not only be hit hardest, but it will be hit first.

非洲遭受的打击不但最重，而且也最早。


Indeed, the long dreaded impact of climate change is already upon us.

实际上，人们已经在遭受惧怕已久的气候变化的影响。


The current drought covering much of East Africa – far more severe than past droughts – has been directly associated with climate change.

东非绝大部分地区都在发生旱灾 — — 这场旱灾与气候变化有着直接的关系，而且也比以往更加严重。


The upcoming climate negotiations ought to address the specific problems of Africa and similarly vulnerable poor parts of the world.

即将开始的气候谈判应当针对非洲和同样脆弱的世界贫困地区所出现的具体情况。


This requires, first and most importantly, reducing global warming to the apparently inevitable increase of two degrees Celsius, beyond which lies an environmental catastrophe that could be unmanageable for poor and vulnerable countries.

第一步，也是最重要的一步，是要将全球变暖控制在看似不可避免的两摄氏度的范围之内，如果超出这个幅度，它所带来的环境灾难就会使贫困和脆弱国家无法承受。


Second, adequate resources should be made available to poor and vulnerable regions and countries to enable them to adapt to climate change.

其次，应该为贫困和脆弱的国家和地区提供充足的资源，以便使它们能够适应气候的变化。


Climate change, which was largely brought about by the activities of developed countries, has made it difficult for poor and vulnerable countries to fight poverty.

总体而言由发达国家活动所造成的气候变化已经加大了贫困和脆弱国家战胜贫困的难度，导致发展环境进一步恶化。


It has created a more hostile environment for development. No amount of money will undo the damage done.

由此造成的损失无论花多少钱都无法弥补。


But adequate investment in mitigating the damage could partly resolve the problem.

但投入充足的资金减轻损失或许能够部分解决问题。


Developed countries are thus morally obliged to pay partial compensation to poor and vulnerable countries and regions to cover part of the cost of the investments needed to adapt to climate change.

因此，发达国家也有义务向贫困脆弱国家及地区支付部分弥补气候变化所需投资的相关赔偿。


Various estimates have been made of the scale of investment required by those countries.

人们对上述国家所要求的投资规模做出了各种猜想。


One conservative estimate – which has a reasonable chance of being accepted precisely because it is conservative – calls for $50 billion per year as of 2015, increasing to $100 billion by 2020 and beyond.

一种保守的估计提出到2015年前每年投资500亿美元，到2020年及以后则增加到1000亿美元 — — 这一提案之所以有可能被采纳也正是因为它比较保守。


A transitional financing arrangement would be put in place for the period 2010-2015.

2010－2015年间将实行过渡性融资计划。


Some argue that developed countries cannot come up with such sums, particularly given their current economic challenges.

有人提出特别是在当前的经济困境下，发达国家拿不出这么大的数目。


But no one has so far argued that the cost of damage caused to the development prospects of poor countries and regions is less than the amount of compensation being offered to cover adjustment costs.

但迄今为止还没有人提出贫困国家和地区发展前景所遭受的损失达不到支付调整费用的补偿额。


The reason is obvious: the damage caused is many times higher than the compensation being requested.

原因非常明显：所造成的损失数倍于所要求补偿的数额。


Nonetheless, it is argued, whatever the real cost of the damage, developed countries currently cannot afford to provide that kind of money.

即便如此，仍有人提出无论损失的实际数额怎样，发达国家目前都无法支付这笔金额。


But we all know that these countries and their national banks were able to spend trillions of dollars in a few months to bail out their bankers, who earned super-profits when the going was good.

可我们都知道这些国家和它们的央行有能力在数月之内耗费数万亿美元的巨资来救助它们在经济运行平稳时赚取了超额利润的银行。


When the good times ended, taxpayers and governments were prepared to rescue them and to ensure that they continued to receive their extraordinary bonuses.

好日子结束时，纳税人和政府准备救援它们，确保它们继续得到额外的津贴。


If the developed world is able to pay trillions of dollars to clean up its bankers’ mess, how is it possible that it cannot afford to pay billions of dollars to clean up a mess that it created, and that is threatening the survival of whole continents?

如果发达国家能拿出数万亿美元清理银行的混乱局面，那么它又怎么可能拿不出区区数十亿美元来为自己制造的威胁到世界民众生存的混乱局面缮后？


Clearly this is not about the availability of resources. It is about the inappropriate priorities in how resources are allocated.

显然问题的关键并不在于有没有相关的资源，而在于资源分配的顺序恰不恰当。


It is about moral values that make it appropriate to rescue bankers, who expect everyone but themselves to pay for the mess they created, and inappropriate to compensate the world’s poorest people, whose survival is threatened precisely because of the mess created by developed countries.

问题的关键是在某些人价值取向中认为应当救援银行，哪怕银行希望除自己之外的所有人为自己造成的混乱负责，也不应该补偿世界最贫困的民众，他们的生存已经在发达国家所造成的混乱中受到了威胁。


I cannot believe that people in developed counties, when informed about the issues, would support rescuing bankers and oppose partial compensation for poor countries and regions.

我无法相信发达国家的民众在了解事实真相后，会支持援助银行而反对对贫困国家地区给予部分的补偿。


I cannot believe that they will let such an injustice occur.

我无法相信他们会放任这种不公平的现象。


If they are not expressing their outrage over the injustice of it all, it can only be because they are inadequately informed.

如果他们没有表达对这种不公平现象的愤怒，那只能是因为他们还不完全了解事实的真相。


Three Humanitarian Challenges for Africa in 2018

2018年非洲的三大人道主义挑战


NAIROBI – In mid-2017, when a cholera outbreak in Somalia threatened to overwhelm local hospitals, health experts feared the worst.

内罗毕—2017年年中，索马里爆发了一场祸乱，几乎让当地医院完全瘫痪，卫生专家做好了最坏的打算。


With crippling drought, malnutrition, and poverty already endemic, an outbreak of deadly diarrhea seemed destined to paralyze the fragile state. But, despite the dire predictions, institutional paralysis was avoided.

目前，大旱、营养不良和贫困仍然顽固难除，爆发致命的腹泻病、让这个脆弱的国家陷入瘫痪的情景似乎难以避免。


Although hundreds died and many more became sick, the collective response managed by governments, NGOs, and local communities, including the national Red Crescent Societies supported by the Red Cross movement, contained the disease.

尽管有数百人丧生，更多人患病，但政府、非政府组织、当地社区 — — 包括红十字会运动支持的国家红十字会 — — 共同组织的集体响应还是遏制了疫情。


Somalia’s experience gives me great hope for Africa’s future.

索马里的经验让我们的非洲的未来有了很大希望。


But it also serves as a reminder that local capacity is easily inundated during times of crisis.

但它也提醒我们，地方能力很容易被危机吞噬。


While some parts of Africa have become self-sufficient in terms of public health, others continue to lean heavily on global aid.

尽管一些非洲国家在公共卫生方面已能自给自足，但其他国家仍严重依赖国际援助。


For these areas, partnership is the best means of minimizing risks.

对于这些地区，合作是实现风险最小化的最好办法。


In particular, three key challenges this year are likely to pose the severest tests of Africa’s ability to manage humanitarian crises.

特别是，今年有三项主要挑战有可能对非洲管理人道主义危机的能力进行最严厉的检验。


The first challenge is violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

第一项挑战是民主刚果的暴力。


Last year, conflict in the DRC’s central Kasai region displaced some 1.4 million people, bringing the total displaced population to 4.1 million – the largest concentration of internal refugees anywhere in Africa.

去年，民主刚果中部的开赛（Kasai）地区有140万人流离失所，使得失去家园的总人口达到了410万 — — 也是非洲规模最大的国内难民群体。


The violence has exacerbated food insecurity, with more than three million people severely undernourished.

暴力加剧了粮食安全问题，三百多万人严重营养不良。


Unfortunately, the Kasai crisis is expected to worsen in 2018.

不幸的是，预计在2018年，开赛危机还将继续恶化。


A recent assessment by the Red Cross Society of the DRC warns that the number of people displaced will continue to rise, and with a fast-spreading cholera outbreak threatening the region, a coordinated plan of action is urgently needed.

民主刚果红十字会的一份 最新评估警告说，流离失所人数将继续增加，且该地区还受到传播迅速的霍乱疫情的威胁，急需协调行动计划。


The second challenge this year is Somalia’s food insecurity, which, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, is expected to intensify this year.

今年的第二项挑战是索马里粮食安全问题，据饥荒早期预警系统网络的数据，索马里粮食安全问题在今年将加剧。


Below-average rainfall in 2017 stunted harvests, and most regions have not fully recovered.

2017年，低于平均水平的降水妨碍了收成，大部分地区尚未完全恢复。


As humanitarian aid is channeled to the country, efforts must be made to target long-term solutions, such as improving agricultural output, educational access, and economic opportunity.

在人道主义援助不断流向索马里之际，必须制定长期方案，如改善农业产出、普及教育和经济机会。


Historically, most aid to the country has been earmarked for emergency relief; even the collective cholera response was narrowly focused on short-term health.

从历史上看，流入索马里的大部分援助用来进行紧急纾困；即使是集体霍乱响应措施，也狭窄地集中关注短期健康。


But Somalia desperately needs a more holistic, long-term development strategy.

但索马里急需更加全局性的长期发展战略。


Finally, the very scourge that Somalia contained last year will continue to rear its head elsewhere in the region.

最后，去年被索马里克服的灾难，今年将在域内其他地方急需肆虐。


Yemen’s cholera outbreak is now the largest in history, having already surpassed one million confirmed cases, and, despite years of international assistance, the threat continues to stalk Africa.

也门霍乱疫情已经达到历史最大规模，确诊病例已超过一百万例，而尽管有多年来国际援助的支持，非洲也仍然饱受霍乱的威胁。


In the last four decades, African countries reported over three million suspected cholera cases to the World Health Organization and new cases are cropping up this year in Africa’s east-central and southern regions.

在过去四十年里，非洲国家向世界卫生组织报告了三百万例疑似病例，而在非洲中东部和南部地区，今年不断有新病例涌现。


Fortunately, there is hope that Somalia’s containment success in 2017 can be replicated, provided that communities and individuals are well aware of the disease and related risks, and that local actors receive the needed resources.

幸运的是，索马里在2017年所取得的遏制霍乱的成功有希望得到复制，只要社会和个人对霍乱及其相关风险有清醒的认识，并且本地行动方能够获得所需要的资源。


The Global Task Force on Cholera Control, which seeks to build local and international support for improved health care and sanitation, has published a global roadmap for ending cholera by 2030.

霍乱控制全球任务组（Global Task Force on Cholera Control）负责为医疗和卫生设施的改善寻找本地和国际支持，它已经发布了2030年消灭或乱全球路线图。


Although that is an ambitious target, it is achievable if international organizations and local governments work together.

尽管这是一个宏大的目标，但只要国际组织和地方政府齐心协力，仍然是可以实现的。


Natural and manmade crises will continue to plague Africa, but organizations like mine are working hard to bring about a brighter future through improved capacity building.

自然和人为危机将继续在非洲肆虐，但我所在的和其他组织正在努力通过改善能力构建为非洲打造更加光明的未来。


To succeed, however, local and international development partners must reorient their thinking; humanitarian aid alone will not solve Africa’s myriad challenges.

但要想获得成功，本地和国际发展伙伴必须改变思维：光靠人道主义援助不足以解决非洲为数巨大的挑战。


While money is clearly needed, it must be spent more strategically to improve structural weaknesses that perpetuate instability.

资金显然是必要的，但花钱必须更有策略性，以改善造成持续动荡的结构性弱点。


For example, if more funding were devoted to community-level health care projects, local organizations would be better positioned to lead when outbreaks threaten.

比如，如果更多的资金能够用于社区层面的医疗项目，本地组织就能在疫情爆发时更好地起到领导作用。


Put simply, the international development community must do more to invest in grassroots solutions, empowering Africans rather than treating them as subcontractors to their own suffering.

简言之，国际发展社会必须加大对草根方案的投入，为非洲人民赋权，而不是将他们视为解决自身困难的转包商。


Not only are local organizations better positioned to navigate complex cultural and linguistic landscapes; they also have more to lose if they fail.

本地组织更适合应付复杂的文化和语言环境；但如果它们失败的话，代价也更大。


Last year was devastating for many Africans, as millions suffered from drought, hunger, and violence.

去年对于许多非洲人来说是灾难性的一年，数百万人蒙受了干旱、饥饿和暴力。


But in Somalia, a coordinated response to a serious health threat offered new hope for a more secure future.

但在索马里，面对严重卫生威胁的协调响应让人们感到能够构建更安全的未来的新希望。


When local ingenuity and international support align, the cycle of suffering can be broken. For many African countries, the ability to look confidently beyond the next crisis is the first step on the long road to self-reliance.

对许多非洲国家而言，充满自信地将目光放在比下一场危机更远的地方，是构建自我恢复力的漫长征程的第一步。


Africa, Climate Change, and the G-8 Summit

非洲、气候变化和八国峰会


British Prime Minister Tony Blair has declared that the two issues at the center of the G-8 Summit this July will be African poverty and global climate change.

英国首相托尼·布莱尔已经宣布，今年七月举行的八国峰会的两大主要议题将是非洲贫困与全球气候变化。


These may seem to be distinct issues. In fact, they are linked.

这两个话题也许看起来大相径庭，但事实上，它们却是相互关联的。


A trip I took to a village in the Tigre region in northern Ethiopia shows why.

我去了埃塞俄比亚北部的Tigre地区的一个村庄，这趟旅行能解释其中缘由。


One morning, I was taken to a dry riverbed at the village’s edge.

一天早晨，我被带到村庄边缘一个干涸的河床。


Farmers were digging a pit in the riverbed, down to the water table approximately two meters below ground level.

农民们正在河床中挖一个深坑，一直挖到地面以下两米多的水管处。


They explained that until recently this was a perennial river – one that flows throughout the year – but now the river stops flowing during the dry season.

他们解释说，这条河不久之前还是一条四季不枯竭、全年流淌不息的河，但是现在这条河一到旱季就断流。


Only when the annual rains begin in the summer does water reappear in the river bed.

只有在每年夏天的降雨来临之时，河床里才会有河水。


Until then, water-starved communities dig for water, if they can find it and if they can afford to pump it out.

就是从那个时候开始，只要能够找到水源并且有足够的钱把水抽出来，缺水地区就会挖坑寻水。


In northern Ethiopia, as in much of Africa, the rain cycle has changed markedly in recent years.

和非洲其他诸多地区一样，北埃塞俄比亚最近几年的雨循环已经发生显著变化。


Ethiopian village life has long depended on two crops, one during a short rain in March and April, and the main crop during the long rain in the summer months.

埃塞俄比亚内的村庄长期以来依赖于两种农作物。 一种农作物生长于三月和四月的短雨季，而主要农作物则在夏天的长雨季中生长。


In recent years, the short rains have failed entirely, and long rains have been erratic.

最近几年，短雨季已经完全消失，而长雨季也变得不再稳定。


Hunger is omnipresent.

饥荒正在蔓延。


Perhaps half of the children are severely underweight.

或许已有一半的儿童体重严重不足。


Much of arid sub-Saharan Africa, notably in the Sahel (the region just south of the Sahara desert), has experienced a pronounced drop in rainfall over the past quarter-century.

撒哈拉沙漠以南的大部分干旱地区，尤其是Sahel（该地区就在撒哈拉沙漠南面 ） ， 过去25年的降雨量已经明显下滑。


This decline coincided with a rise in the surface temperature of the neighboring Indian Ocean, a hint that the decline in rainfall is in fact part of the longer-term process of man-made global warming.

与此同时，离它不远的印度洋却水温上升，这一现象暗示着，降雨量的减少实际是人类一手造成的长期全球性气候变暖的一部分。


Failures of rainfall contribute not only to famines and chronic hunger, but also to the onset of violence when hungry people clash over scarce food and water.

降雨量的不足不仅导致了连年饥荒，还引发了暴力活动，饥饿的人们为争夺稀少的食物和水源而冲突不断。


When violence erupts in water-starved regions such as Darfur, Sudan, political leaders tend to view the problems in narrow political terms.

当缺水地区，诸如达尔富尔和苏丹，爆发暴力活动时，政治领导人从狭隘的政治角度来看待问题。


If they act at all, they mobilize peacekeepers, international sanctions, and humanitarian aid.

一旦行动，他们就会动用和平维护者、国际制裁和人道主义援助。


But Darfur, like Tigre, needs a development strategy to fight hunger and drought even more than it needs peacekeepers. Soldiers cannot keep peace among desperately hungry people.

但是，与Tigre一样，对达尔富尔来说，比起和平维护者来说，它更需要一个能够抵抗饥荒和干旱的发展策略。


One course of action must be to help impoverished African regions to “adapt” to climate change and to escape the poverty trap.

该行动必须要有一个能帮助贫瘠的非洲地区“适应”气候变化并脱离贫穷陷阱的过程。


Water-stressed regions like Ethiopia and Sudan can adapt, at least in part, through improved technologies such as “drip irrigation,” rainwater harvesting, improved water storage facilities, deep wells, and agro-forestry techniques that make best use of scarce rainfall. Better land-management practices (the re-planting of degraded forests, for example) can recharge underground water aquifers.

通过技术改进，诸如能最有效利用不足降水的“滴灌 ” 、 人工汇集雨水、改良后的储水设备、深井以及农业林学技术，使埃塞俄比亚和苏丹这样的缺水地区至少在一定程度上适应气候变化。


Poor countries cannot afford these technologies on their own.

贫穷国家本身无力担负这些技术的费用。


Nor should they have to.

这也不应该由他们来承担。


Help for poor countries in Africa and elsewhere to adapt to climate change should not be described as charity or aid, but rather as compensation for damages being imposed on the poorest people on the planet.

对非洲或其他任何地方的贫穷国家提供使他们适应气候变化的帮助不应当被视为是一种慈善或援助，而是对这个星球上最贫困的、强制性忍受各种毁坏的人们的一种补偿。


Greater help for these countries to escape from extreme poverty has been promised for decades but has not been delivered.

数十年来，向这些国家提供更多使其脱离极度贫困的承诺一再出现，却从未兑现。


In addition to adapting to climate change, the world must also reduce future risks to the planet by cutting back on emissions of greenhouse gases, which are the source of man-made climate change.

除了要适应气候变化，全世界也必须减少温室气体的排放以降低这个星球未来所面临的风险。 温室气体正是人为气候改变的罪魁祸首。


While adaptation to climate change is necessary – because it is already occurring – this is not enough.

虽然对气候变化的适应是必需的 — — 因为它已经发生了 — — 但这还不够。


If the world fails to mitigate future climate change, the effects of rising temperatures, increasing droughts, more numerous and severe tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a spread of tropical diseases will pose huge threats to the entire planet.

如果全世界不能减缓未来气候变化的趋势，那么上升的气温、愈发严重的旱情、愈加频繁严重的热带��暴、不断上涨的海平线以及热带疾病的扩散将会给全球带来严峻考验。


The famines in Ethiopia and the violence in Darfur suggest what can lie ahead.

埃塞俄比亚的饥荒和达尔富尔的暴力活动已经预示着将会面临的情况。


The best way to reduce long-term climate change is to reduce carbon emissions.

减缓长期气候变化趋势的最佳方法是减少碳化物的排放。 这至少有三个办法： 改用非碳能源，诸如太阳能和核能。


There are at least three options: shift to non-carbon energy sources such as solar or nuclear energy; capture and dispose of the carbon dioxide emitted at carbon-based power plants; economize on energy use, for example by shifting to hybrid automobiles and trucks.

不允许以碳作能源的发电厂释放二氧化碳气体，对二氧化碳气体作妥善处理。 节约使用能源，比如改用混合型汽车和卡车。


Most likely, all three of these methods will have to play a role.

很有可能，这三种方法都必须发挥作用。


The effort to reduce greenhouse gases will require decades of action, but, given the long lead times in overhauling the world’s energy systems, we must start now.

要减少温室气体还需要很多努力，但是，鉴于改革全球能源系统需要很长时间，我们必须现在就开始。


Rich countries need to lead the way.

富国应当担当起领头羊的任务。


It is ironic that the United States, which portrays itself as a friend of democracy and impoverished countries, gives the smallest share of its GNP in aid among the rich countries, and also refuses to participate in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

颇为讽刺的是，向来自诩为民主和穷困国家之友的美国，与其他富国相比，提供的援助只占其国民生产总值的最小份额，它还拒绝参加为减少温室气体排放的全球行动。


This is especially ironic because African countries like Ethiopia stand steadfastly and bravely with the US in the fight for freedom and against terrorism, even as they struggle with hunger, disease, and famine.

这点尤为讽刺，因为埃塞俄比亚这样的非洲国家即使在饥饿、疾病和饥荒中艰苦挣扎，他们还是坚定不移、勇往无惧地与美国一起站在争取自由与反对恐怖主义的同一战线上。


Moreover, countries like Ethiopia are making valiant, indeed remarkable, efforts to overcome their problems, despite the lack of adequate, and long-promised, help from the world’s richest countries.

此外，像埃塞俄比亚这样的国家正在采取坚定有效的措施来克服他们的问题，尽管没有得到来自世界最富有国家承诺许久的任何适当帮助。


Africans suffering from hunger and drought, and indeed poor people everywhere, have a right to ask much more of the US and other rich countries.

正在遭受着饥荒和旱灾的非洲人民，以及世界各地的贫困人们，都有权利来向美国和其他富国提出更多要求。


Tony Blair is right to call on his rich-country colleagues to follow through on their unfulfilled promises.

托尼·布莱尔号召他的富国同僚们来履行完他们未尽责的承诺，他做对了。


Capitalizing on Africa’s Demographic Dividend

利用非洲的人口红利


LOMÉ – Africa is home to the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population.

洛美—非洲拥有全世界最年轻、增长最快的人口。


With as many as 20 million young people poised to join the workforce every year for the next three decades, the continent has an opportunity to shift the balance of local and global growth with a purpose: jobs.

未来三十年，每年都会有多达2,000万年轻人加入劳动力，非洲面临着改变本地和全球增长平衡的机会：就业。


But it is far from inevitable that it will do so.

但这绝非定局。


For African countries to capitalize on this demographic dividend, the future workforce must be educated, trained, and have adequate employment opportunities.

非洲国家要想利用这一人口红利，未来劳动力就必须接受教育和训练，并拥有充足的就业机会。


Putting all the pieces in place will not be easy.

同时满足这些条件绝非易事。


These are uncertain times for the global economy.

现时代是全球经济的不确定时代。


Trade tensions between the United States and China are threatening the integrity of global value chains, and Britain’s looming exit from the European Union has the potential to cause even more disruption.

美国与中国之间的贸易紧张威胁着全球价值链的完整性，即将发生的英国退欧有可能导致更大的破坏。


The International Monetary Fund’s October forecast warns that as historic economic drivers stall, global growth this year and next could fall to 3.7%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）在其10月份的预测中警告说，随着历史性的经济引擎的熄火，今年和明年全球增长可能下降至3.7 % ， 较此前的预测降低0.2个百分点。


But as this slowdown gets priced in by stock markets around the world, new drivers of growth will emerge.

但随着这一减速体现在全世界股票市场中，新的增长引擎也将浮现。


Africa is well positioned to become one of them.

非洲非常有望成为新引擎之一。


According to the World Bank, six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are in Africa.

据世界银行数据，全球增长最快的十个经济体中有六个在非洲。


Intra-African trade might be the gateway to future local and global growth, with the continent’s burgeoning population forging new opportunities across borders.

非洲内部贸易可能成为未来本地和全球增长的门户，其生机勃勃的人口将带来众多跨国机会。


Most significantly, Africa’s labor force is on the verge of a dramatic expansion.

最重要的是，非洲劳动力即将迎来大爆发。


Today, 60% of Africans are younger than 25, and 41% are under the age of 15.

今天，60%的非洲人不到25岁，41%不到15岁。


By 2050, Africa’s youth population is expected to reach 840 million.

到2050年，非洲青年人口预计将达到8.4亿。


But this massive pool of potential talent is a double-edged sword.

但这一巨大的未来人才库是一柄双刃剑。


Despite strong GDP growth over the last ten years, the majority of young people in Africa could not capture economic opportunities.

尽管过去十年GDP增长强劲，但非洲大部分年轻人无法抓住经济机会。


Furthermore, the African Union/OECD report Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018 highlights that if the underemployment trend continues, Africa’s young people will suffer the most.

此外，非盟/经合组织报告《非洲发展动态2018 》 （ Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018）强调，如果失业趋势继续，非洲年轻人将受到最大冲击。


Failing to employ Africa’s young people fully could marginalize an entire generation and lead them down a path of disruption for which we may not be prepared.

不能充分雇用非洲年轻人可能会造成整整一代人被边缘化，把他们推向他们未必准备好的破坏之路。


For countries to experience job-led long-term growth, the provision of quality opportunities in agriculture is vital.

对于意在通过就业刺激长期增长的国家，提供高质量农业机会至关重要。


If that does not happen, and quality jobs remain scarce, the economic expansion of which Africa is capable will not happen.

若非如此，如果高质量就业仍然稀缺，非洲本有能力实现的经济扩张就不会发生。


In other words, African governments are facing a deadline to match job growth with skills training.

换句话说，非洲政府面临匹配就业增长与技能训练的最后期限。


Unfortunately, at the moment, few countries are addressing this challenge effectively.

不幸的是，目前很少有国家能够有效地面对这一挑战。


According to the African Development Bank, the unemployment rate for young people in Africa is already double the rate for adults.

据非洲开发银行，非洲年轻人失业率已高达成年人的两倍。


In fact, young people are being let down even before they start looking for work.

事实上，年轻人在开始找工作之前便已经被淘汰。


Too many primary schools suffer from crippling teacher shortages, for example, and gender discrimination prevents millions of girls from even attending high school.

比如，太多小学师资力量严重短缺，而性别歧视又让数百万女童根本无法上学。


To overcome these shortcomings will require significant investments of political and financial capital.

要克服这些缺陷，需要投入巨大的政治和金融资本。


Some leaders are moving in this direction.

一些领导人正在朝这一方向努力。


At the Paris Peace Forum (PPF), held earlier this month, African and global leaders gathered to discuss the powerful idea that international cooperation is the key to tackling global challenges and ensuring durable peace.

在本月早些时候举行的巴黎和平论坛（PPF）上，非洲和全球领导人聚会讨论了一个强大的概念：国际合作是解决全球挑战、确保持续和平的关键。


On the sidelines of the PPF, the focus fell on African youth.

PPF会场之外，焦点集中在了非洲年轻人身上。


The AU-EU Youth Cooperation Hub, one of 119 projects selected to participate in the Forum, attended the meeting to discuss the AU-EU Youth Agenda.

作为被选中参与PPF的119个项目之一，非盟-欧盟青年合作中心（AU-EU Youth Cooperation Hub）参会讨论了非盟-欧盟青年日程。


Striving to involve young people across Africa and Europe in decisions that impact them, now and in the future, this initiative aims to showcase strategies for bringing Africa and Europe together to address challenges such as the demographic dividend.

该计划致力于让非洲和欧洲的年轻人参与到现在和未来影响他们的决策中，旨在呈现让非洲和欧洲合作解决人口红利等挑战的策略。


One approach to capitalizing on Africa’s demographic boom is to expand the availability of training initiatives that pair employers’ needs with African talent.

利用非洲人口红利的一个方法是扩大训练项目普及度，让雇主的需求与非洲人才相匹配。


As a former fellow with the Ibrahim Leadership program, I can attest to the transformative power of top-tier educational schemes and their value as incubators for job-related skills.

作为 易卜拉欣领导力（Ibrahim Leadership）项目前成员，我能够证明优秀的教育计划的转变力，以及作为就业相关技能孵化器的价值。


Africa’s success relies on its ability to harness its demographic dividend by equipping its youth with technological and innovative skills, which will be a catalyst for economic growth.

非洲的成功取决于其用技术和创新技能武装年轻人，成为经济增长的催化剂，从而抓住人口红利的能力。


This includes training and agriculture-focused programs to absorb skills along the value chains that connect raw materials to industries and markets across Africa.

这包括通过训练项目和以农业为中心的计划，沿着从整个非洲的原材料到产业和市场的价值链吸收技能。


By 2030, one in every five people on the planet will be African.

到2030年，全世界五分之一的人口都将生活在非洲。


Because of its size alone, Africa’s labor force will have the potential to drive global growth for decades.

光是这一人口规模就决定了非洲劳动力将有望成为全球几十年增长的引擎。


But to do so, Africans must implement the necessary reforms today.

但要实现这一点，非洲人必须从现在开始进行不要的改革。


As our demographic dividend matures, governments, institutions, and organizations must help position young people for success.

随着我们的人口红利逐渐成熟，政府、机构和组织必须帮助年轻人做好成功的准备。


If African countries can meet this challenge, prolonged economic growth – at home and abroad – will be the reward.

如果非洲国家能够战胜这一挑战，长期经济增长可期 — — 不管是国内还是国外。


Africa’s Path from Poverty

非洲脱贫之路


BEIJING – All low-income countries have the potential for dynamic economic growth.

北京—所有低收入国家都有实现充满活力的经济增长的潜力。


We know this because we have seen it happen repeatedly: a poor, agrarian economy transforms itself into a middle- or even high-income urban economy in one or two generations.

我们知道这一点，因为过去曾经一再发生这一幕：贫穷的农村经济在一两代人的时间里摇身一变成为中等收入甚至高收入城市经济。


The key is to capture the window of opportunity for industrialization arising from the relocation of light manufacturing from higher-income countries.

关键是抓住高收入国家轻型制造业重新布局带来的工业化机会窗口。


That was true in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and it remains true today.

在十九和二十世纪是如此，今天仍然是如此。


Japan seized its opportunity in the years following World War II, using labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and simple electronics, to drive its economy until rising labor costs eroded its comparative advantage in those sectors.

日本在二战后抓住了这一机会，用劳动密集型行业（如防止和简单电子）驱动经济，直至劳动力成本遏制了这些行业的比较优势。


That shift then allowed other low-income Asian economies – South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and to some extent Malaysia and Thailand – to follow in Japan's footsteps.

接着，这一转变又让低收入亚洲经济体 — — 韩国、中国台湾、中国香港、新加坡以及某种程度上的马来西亚和泰国 — — 效仿了日本的榜样。


China, of course, is the region's most recent traveler along this well-trodden path.

当然，中国是这条老路上的最新旅客。


After more than three decades of breakneck economic growth, it has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries on earth to the world's largest economy.

在经历了三十多年的高速增长后，中国已经从世界最贫穷国家之一转变为世界最大经济体。


And now that China, too, is beginning to lose its comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, other developing countries – especially in Africa – are set to take its place.

而如今，中国也开始失去其在劳动密集型行业的比较优势，其他发展中国家 — — 特别是非洲国家 — — 即将取代中国的位置。


Indeed, ever since the Industrial Revolution, the rise of light manufacturing has driven a dramatic rise in national income.

事实上，自工业革命以来，轻型制造业的崛起驱动了国民收入的大幅上升。


The United Kingdom's economic transformation started with textiles.

英国经济转型从纺织业开始。


In Belgium, France, Sweden, Denmark, Italy, and Switzerland, light manufacturing led the way.

比利时、法国、瑞典、丹麦、意大利和瑞士都是轻型制造业领路。


Similarly, in the United States, cities like Boston, Baltimore, and Philadelphia became centers for producing textiles, garments, and shoes.

类似地，在美国，波士顿、巴尔的摩和费城等城市也都曾经是纺织品、服装和鞋子的生产中心。


Until recently, few believed that Africa, too, could become a center for modern manufacturing.

知道最近，仍很少有人相信非洲也可以成为现代制造业的中心。


But, with the right policies, there is no reason why African countries could not follow a similar trajectory.

但是，有正确的政策，没有理由认为非洲国家不可能走上同样的轨迹。


Consider land-locked Ethiopia, which only ten years ago seemed to be an especially bad bet.

以内陆国家埃塞俄比亚为例。 十年前，它看起来仍然毫无前途。


But then the country built an industrial park near Addis Ababa and invited the Chinese shoemaker Huajian to open a factory there.

但随后它在亚的斯亚贝巴附近建设了一个工业园，邀请中国制鞋商华建国际前去设厂。


Huajian opened its doors in January 2012 with two production lines and some 600 workers.

华建国际在2012年开张，拥有两条生产线和600名左右的工人。


By the end of the year, it had employed 2,000 Ethiopians and doubled the country's exports of leather shoes.

到当年年底，华建国际雇用了2,000名埃塞俄比亚人，让埃塞俄比亚皮鞋出口翻了一番。


Today, the company has 3,500 workers in Ethiopia producing more than two million shoes a year.

如今，华建国际在埃塞俄比亚有3,500名工人，每年生产超过两百万双鞋。


In 2013, spurred by Huajian's success, the Ethiopian government created a new industrial park, with space for 22 factory units.

2013年，受华建国际成功的鼓舞，埃塞俄比亚政府建造了一个可容纳22个工厂单位的新工业园。


Within three months, all of them had been leased by export-oriented companies from Turkey, Korea, Taiwan, China, and elsewhere.

不出三个月，所有单位被来自土耳其、韩国、中国台湾、中国和其他地区的出口导向型公司租赁一空。


The World Bank has provided $250 million to support the continued construction of these industrial parks.

世界银行提供了2.5亿美元支持工业园的继续建设。


The Ethiopian success story is just the start.

埃塞俄比亚的成功故事只是个开始。


As investors learn more about Africa, they will increasingly see what it has to offer.

随着投资者对非洲了解的深入，他们将日益看到非洲的计划。


Indeed, the cost of labor in Africa is competitive enough that Ethiopia could attract companies from countries as poor as Bangladesh.

事实上，非洲劳动力成本优势非常大，埃塞俄比亚甚至可以吸引孟加拉国等穷国的公司。


Africa has a surplus of agricultural labor and too few other jobs.

非洲农业劳动力过生，其他工作岗位又过少。


As foreign firms launch operations in the labor-intensive sectors in which Africa has a comparative advantage, they will train the local workforce.

只要外国企业在非洲拥有比较优势的劳动密集型行业开展经营，就能训练本地劳动力。


Some workers will become managers.

一些工人将变为管理者。


They will become familiar with the technology and learn how to maintain consistent quality in the production line.

他们将熟悉技术，学习如何维持生产线的质量。


They will establish contacts with international buyers and investors.

他们将与国际买家和投资者签订合同。


And, eventually, some of them will be able to raise capital and start firms of their own – export companies owned and operated by Africans.

最终，他们中的一些人将能够筹集资本自己创业 — — 非洲人拥有和经营的出口公司。


Mauritius shows the path ahead.

毛里求斯就是很好的例子。


In the 1970s, the government set up industrial parks to process textiles and garments for export.

20世纪70年代，毛里求斯政府建设了工业园生产纺织品和服装以供出口。


At the time, most of the owners were from Taiwan or Hong Kong; today, more than 70% of the island's industrial companies are locally owned.

当时，一些工厂的所有者来自中国台湾和中国香港；如今，毛里求斯70%以上的工业公司为本国所有。


A carefully focused export strategy is crucial.

谨慎而集中的出口战略至关重要。


The international development community and many African governments want to work toward regional integration, linking the markets of 55 African countries.

国际发展机构和许多非洲国家政府希望朝地区一体化方向努力，将55个非洲国家的市场联系起来。


This might have its advantages, but it should not be a priority.

这也许会带来优势，但不适合作为当务之急。


Africa today accounts for just 1.9% of global GDP, compared to 21% for the United States and 23% for Europe.

如今，非洲只占全球ＧＤＰ的１.９ ％ ， 而美国为21 % ， 欧洲为23 % 。


Developing countries must use their limited resources in the most effective way, and there is no question where the most attractive opportunities in Africa are to be found.

发展中国家必须将有限的资源用在效率最高的地方，毫无疑问，非洲最诱人的机会还有待发现。


For example, instead of investing heavily in the infrastructure needed for regional integration, a country like Ethiopia would be better off building industrial parks and linking them by road to ports in Djibouti.

比如，埃塞俄比��等国家不应该大量投资于地区一体化所需要的基础设施，投资于建设工业园并用公路将它们与吉布提的港口连接起来效果更好。


With the right growth strategy, far-reaching change can come within a person's lifetime – sometimes more than once.

有了正确的增长战略，我们在有生之年就可以看到深远的变化 — — 甚至多次变化。


My native Taiwan is now a high-income economy.

我的出生地台湾如今已是高收入经济体。


But when I was born there, in 1952, the island was poorer than almost every country in Africa.

但在1952年我出生时，台湾岛比非洲几乎所有国家都要穷。


Then it happened to me again.

后来我再一次经历了这一转变。


I moved to mainland China in 1979, when the country's per capita income was less than one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa's.

1979年我来到中国大陆，当时，中国大陆人均收入只有撒哈拉以南非洲的不到三分之一。


Today, China has become an upper-middle-income country, and it is on track to become a high-income country by 2020.

如今，中国已成为中高收入国家，并且极有可能在2020年步入高收入行列。


My hope is that I can witness a third economic transformation in my lifetime, this time in Ethiopia and other countries in Africa.

我希望能在我的有生之年看到第三次经济转型 — — 在埃塞俄比亚和其他非洲国家。


If they stay on the tried and tested path of those who have gone before, there is every chance that I will.

如果它们能够坚持其他国家已经尝试并考验过的道路，我的这一愿望实现的可能性相当大。


The Promise of Digital Health

数字医疗的憧憬


BASEL – Africa has changed remarkably, and for the better, since I first worked as a young doctor in Angola some 20 years ago.

巴塞尔—自20年前年轻的我在安哥拉行医以来，非洲已经发生了天翻地覆的变化 — — 越变越好。


But no change has been more obvious than the way the continent has adopted mobile technology.

但变化最显著的地方还是非洲的移动技术。


People in Africa – and, indeed, throughout low- and middle-income countries – are seizing the opportunities that technology provides, using mobile phones for everything from making payments to issuing birth certificates, to gaining access to health care.

非洲人 — — 实际上，是所有中低收入国家的人 — — 正在抓住技术所提供的机会，将移动电话应用于从支付到颁发出生证和获得医疗服务的方方面面。


The benefit of mobile technologies lies in access.

移动技术的优势在于通道。


Barriers like geographical distance and low resources, which have long prevented billions of people from getting the care they need, are much easier to overcome in the digital age.

地理距离和资源匮乏等障碍长期阻碍数十亿人获得他们所需要的看护，而在数字时代，这些障碍可以轻易克服。


And, indeed, there are countless ways in which technology can be deployed to improve health-care access and delivery.

事实上，技术可以通过数不清的方式用于改善医疗普及和实现（access and delivery ） 。


Of course, this is not new information, and a growing number of technology-based health initiatives have taken shape in recent years.

当然，这并非什么新消息，并且近几年来也取得了越来越多的基于技术的医疗创新。


But only a few have reached scale, and achieved long-term sustainability; the majority of projects have not made it past the pilot phase.

但只有少数创新形成了规模并实现了长期可持续性；大部分项目尚未渡过实验阶段。


The result is a highly fragmented landscape of digital solutions – one that, in some cases, can add extra strain to existing health systems.

结果是数字方案呈现出高度的碎片化特征 — — 在某些例子中，这给现有医疗体系带来了额外的约束。


The first step to addressing this problem is to identify which factors breed success – and which impede it.

解决这一问题的第一步是并别那些因素能带来成功 — — 以及哪些因素阻碍成功。


Here, perhaps the most important observation relates to how the solution is linked to the reality on the ground.

在这方面，最重要的观察与方案如何与现实联系起来有关。


After all, technology is an enabler for the innovation of health-care delivery, not an end in itself.

毕竟，技术只是医疗实现的创新的促成因素，其本身绝非终点。


Solutions that focus on end-users, whether health practitioners or patients, have the best chance of succeeding.

注重终端用户 — — 不管是医生还是患者 — — 的方案最有可能取得成功。


Fundamental to this approach is the recognition that what users need are not necessarily the most advanced technologies, but rather solutions that are easy to use and implement.

这一方法的关键是认识到用户需要的东西未必是最先进的技术，而是便于使用和实施的方案。


In fact, seemingly outdated technologies like voice and text messages can be far more useful tools for the intended users than the latest apps or cutting-edge innovations in, say, nanotechnology.

事实上，看似过时的技术，如语音和文字短信，可以成为对预期用户极为有用的工具，远比最新APP或（比如）纳米技术的尖端创新更有用。


Consider the Community-based Hypertension Improvement Project in Ghana, run by the Novartis Foundation, which I lead, and FHI 360.

以加纳基于社区的高血压改善计划为例。 该计划由我所领导的诺华基金会（Novartis Foundation）和FHI 360负责运营。


The project supports patients in self-managing their condition through regular mobile medication reminders, as well as advice on necessary lifestyle changes.

该计划支持患者通过定期移动医疗提醒功能，根据必要的生活方式改变建议进行自我管理。


This approach is successful because it is patient-centered and leverages information and communication technology (ICT) tools that are readily available and commonly used.

这一方法取得成功的原因是它已患者为中心，并利用现成和常用的信息和通讯技术（ICT）工具。


In a country where mobile penetration exceeds 80% but only a few people have smartphones, such simple solutions can have the greatest impact.

加纳的移动电话渗透率超过80 % ， 但只有少数人拥有智能手机，但如此简单的方案仍起到了最大的效果。


For health practitioners, digital solutions must be perceived as boosting efficiency, rather than adding to their already-heavy workload.

对医疗工作者而言，数字方案必须让他们感到能够增加效率，而不是徒增已经十分沉重的工作负担。


Co-creating solutions with people experienced in delivering health care in low-resource settings can help to ensure that the solutions are adopted at scale.

与富有在低资源条件下实现医疗服务的经验的人士合作制定方案有助于确保方案可以形成规模化实施。


For example, the telemedicine network that the Novartis Foundation and its partners rolled out with the Ghana Health Service was a direct response to the need, expressed by health-care practitioners on the ground, to expand the reach of medical expertise.

比如，诺华基金会及其合作伙伴与加纳卫生部共同开展的远程医疗网络直接响应一线医疗工作者扩大医疗专家覆盖范围的要求。


The network connects frontline health workers with a simple phone call to consultation centers in referral hospitals several hours away, where doctors and specialists are available around-the-clock.

该网络让一线卫生工作者一个电话就能接通数小时里程之外的转诊医院咨询中心，那里的医生和专家随时候命。


From the outset, the project was a response to an expressed need to expand the reach of medical expertise, and was fully operated on the ground by Ghana Health Service staff, which made this model sustainable at scale.

从一���始，该项目就是为了响应扩大医疗专家覆盖面的要求，并完全由加纳卫生部工作人员负责运营，这让该模式实现上规模、可持续。


To realize the full potential of digital health, solutions need to be integrated into national health systems.

为了充分实现数字医疗的潜力，解决方案必须与国家卫生系统相结合。


Only then can digital technology accelerate progress toward universal health coverage and address countries’ priority health needs.

惟其如此，数字技术才能加快全民医疗覆盖和解决国家紧迫医疗需求的进程。


Collaboration across the health and ICT sectors, both public and private, is essential.

医疗和ICT的合作 — — 包括私人和公共合作 — — 至关重要。


Multidisciplinary partnerships driven by the sustained leadership of senior government officials must guide progress, beginning at the planning stage.

必须通过高级政府官员的持续领导推动的多学科合作来指引进程，第一步是规划阶段。


Intra-governmental collaboration, dedicated financing for digital health solutions, and effective governance mechanisms will also be vital to successful strategies.

致力于为数字卫生解决方案提供融资的政府间合作以及有效的治理机制也是成功战略的关键。


Digital technologies offer huge opportunities to improve the way health care is delivered.

数字技术为我们提供了改善医疗实现方式的巨大的机会。


If we are to seize them, we must learn from past experience.

要想把握这些机会，我们必须从过去的经验中汲取教训。


By remaining focused on the reality of end-users and on priority health needs, rather than being dazzled by the latest technology, we can fulfil the promise of digital health.

通过专注于终端用户的现实和最重要的医疗需求，而不是迷失于最新技术，我们能够实现数字医疗的憧憬


Confronting Africa’s Water Challenge

直面非洲的水资源挑战


ABIDJAN – Water is essential for life, and yet it is scarce in many parts of the world.

阿比让 — — 水对生命而言必不可少，但世界许多地区都面临水资源稀缺。


Owing to the effects of climate change, Africa is experiencing its worst drought since 1945, especially in Southern Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Northern Nigeria.

由于气候变化的影响，非洲正在经历1945年来最严重的干旱，尤其是在南苏丹、索马里、埃塞俄比亚和北尼日利亚等地区。


These fragile areas now need the global community’s support.

上述脆弱地区现在需要国际社会的支持。


We need to build resilient systems to ensure access to potable water for all people, and to improve water-delivery and sanitation provisions in Africa’s rapidly growing urban areas.

我们需要建设能确保为所有人提供饮用水的弹性系统，并在非洲快速发展的城市区域改善供水和卫生设施。


We should begin by expanding Africans’ capacity to harness wastewater.

我们首先应当从提高非洲人利用废水的能力开始。


With investment and proper management, wastewater can become a sustainable source of wealth for many Africans, with added benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and environmental sustainability.

通过投资和恰当的管理，废水可以为许多非洲人持续提供财富，并有益于提高人类健康、农业生产率和可持续的环境保护。


Over the past six years, the African Development Bank has invested $3.3 billion in projects to expand access to water and improve sanitation, with around $2.2 billion of that going to urban services that reach at least 17 million people.

过去六年来，非洲开发银行已经投资33亿美元用于拓展饮用水和卫生设施项目，其中约22亿美元被用于至少惠及1，700万人的城市服务。


The AfDB supports an integrated urban water-management model (IUWM) that, in keeping with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, enables communities to derive a sustainable income from management of urban liquid and solid waste.

非洲开发银行支持一种综合性城市水资源管理模式（IUWM ） ， 这种模式贯彻联合国可持续发展目标第六条的精神，确保民众能够从城市液体和固体废物管理中获得可持续收入。


IUWM efforts require a significant initial investment, and come with steep capital and operational costs.

综合性城市水资源管理模式需要大量的初期投资，之后的资金和运营成本同样是十分可观的。


Only a few African cities collect and treat any more than 20% of the wastewater generated through centralized wastewater-management systems.

目前仅有少数几个非洲城市通过集中废水管理系统搜集并处理超过20%的废水。


The remaining 80% constitutes a huge untapped source of potentially valuable liquid and solid waste.

其余80%具有潜在价值的大量液体和固体废物完全没有被加以利用。


With the right investment, foresight, and commitment, this underappreciated resource can create jobs and deliver sustainable growth.

如果有恰当的投资、远见和承诺，上述被严重低估的资源可以创造就业并带来可持续增长。


Wastewater management is thus a central feature of the AfDB’s strategic priorities, known as the High 5s, which aim to improve Africans’ quality of life, boost public health, achieve gender equality, create jobs, and increase communities’ resilience to the effects of climate change.

废水管理也因此成为非洲开发银行重点战略的核心特征。 这项被称为High 5s的计划旨在提高非洲人的生活质量、促进公共卫生、实现两性平等、创造就业机会，并使社会更能从容应对气候变化的影响。


Water will also play a key role in reaching the High 5s’ industrialization and sustainable-farming objectives.

同时，水资源还将在实现High 5s工业化和可持续农业目标方面发挥关键的作用。


In Yaoundé, Cameroon, the AfDB helped to protect some 300,000 people and their property by reducing the frequency of floods from 15 incidents per year to just three.

在喀麦隆首都雅温得，非洲开发银行通过将每年发生洪灾的频率从15次降低到仅仅3次来为 300,000民众及其财产提供保护。


And with a $40 million sanitation project, the AfDB helped to lower the proportion of the city’s malaria-afflicted population from 16% to 12%.

而且非洲开发银行投资的一项4，000万美元的卫生项目协助将雅温得市疟疾感染的人口比例从16%降到12%左右。


In Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, the $23 million AfDB-funded Gourou Basin Integrated Watershed Management Project significantly reduced flooding throughout the Gourou Basin, and improved 2.8 million inhabitants’ livelihoods.

在科特迪瓦首都阿比让，非洲开发银行投资的价值2，300万美元的古鲁盆地综合流域管理项目大大减少了古鲁盆地的洪灾次数，并显著改善了280万居民的生活。


In Zimbabwe, after 4,300 people died in the 2008-2009 cholera pandemic, the AfDB and other donors supported the $43.6 million Urgent Water Supply and Sanitation Rehabilitation Project, which made emergency repairs to wastewater systems in urban areas, helping 2.5 million people.

在津巴布韦，在4，300人死于2008-2009年爆发的霍乱疫情后，非洲开发银行和其他捐助者出资支持了4，360万美元的紧急供水和卫生设施修复项目，该项目对城市地区废水系统进行了紧急维修，惠及当地超过250万人口。


All AfDB-supported wastewater-management systems follow sustainability strategies to ensure that they enhance economic gains, benefit local communities, and remain affordable.

所有非洲开发银行支持的废水管理系统都遵循可持续发展原则，以确保能提高经济收益、惠及当地社会并让当地民众负担得起相应的费用。


These projects also help countries to harness and use waste flows, by converting sewage to biogas and fertilizer.

这些项目还通过将污水转化为沼气和化肥来帮助相关国家利用废水和废物。


Meanwhile, the AfDB’s African Water Facility (AWF) complements its project-finance work by attracting downstream investments in water infrastructure.

不仅如此，非洲开发银行的非洲水利设施（AWF）项目还通过吸引下游资金投向水利基础设施很好地补充了其项目融资工作。


In February, flooding and strong winds from Tropical Storm Dineo devastated the coast of Mozambique and had a severe impact on the local population.

今年2月，热带风暴迪尼奥造成的洪水和飓风摧毁了莫桑比克海岸，严重影响了当地民众的生产生活。


But just a few weeks later, the AWF launched a feasibility study to improve livelihoods and climate-change resilience throughout Mozambique’s Inhambane Province, where the storm struck.

但短短几星期后，非洲水利设施计划就启动了一项可行性调查，目的是改善遭受风暴袭击的莫桑比克伊尼扬巴内省适应气候变化的能力和民众生活。


In collaboration with the Global Water Partnership, the AWF is implementing IUWM systems in five African cities, including Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Marondera in Zimbabwe.

非洲水利设施计划与全球水体合作伙伴组织一道，正在包括刚果民主共和国的金沙萨和津巴布韦马龙德拉在内的非洲五大城市推行综合性城市水资源管理项目。


In the DRC alone, IUWM systems can be expected to improve water delivery and sanitation for 17 million people by 2030.

截止2030年，仅在刚果民主共和国一地，综合性城市水资源管理系统就可望帮助1，700万人改善供水和卫生设施。


The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is also tapping into the AfDB’s expertise, by providing an $18 million grant to fund Phase II of the AfDB’s Urban Sanitation Program.

比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金同样在利用非洲开发银行的专业知识，通过提供1，800万美元的赠款来支持非洲开发银行第二阶段的城市卫生项目。


This effort will help to develop business innovations for affordable and sustainable sanitation services in Africa, which could reach two million urban dwellers directly and another six million people through subsidiary projects.

这项工作将有助于催生能为非洲提供廉价、可持续卫生服务的商业创新，该计划可以令两百万城市居民直接受益，并通过附属项目惠及另外600万人。


Africa’s wastewater-management challenges are substantial and complex.

非洲面临的废水管理挑战巨大而又复杂。


But the AfDB is determined to provide opportunities that pay dividends for African communities – in public health, improved sanitation, economic development, and environmental protection.

但非洲开发银行决心为非洲民众提供能够带来红利的机会，无论涉及到公共保健、卫生改善、经济发展还是环境保护。


Improving the quality of life for all Africans will require political commitment, public-private partnerships, and robust public involvement.

改善所有非洲人的生活质量需要政治决心、公私合作以及积极的公众参与。


With the High 5s framework, the AfDB is working to bring these three ingredients together.

在High 5s框架下，非洲开发银行正在努力将所有三项要素加以整合。


All stakeholders – in Africa and internationally – must redouble our efforts to ensure clean, affordable water for all, and to support African countries suffering through a historic drought.

非洲和全球所有利益相关方必须加倍努力，确保为所有人提供洁净廉价的日常用水，并且为正在遭受着历史性旱灾的非洲国家提供援助。


We have a moral obligation to do so.

这样做是我们的道义义务。


After all, water means life.

毕竟，水和生命是联系在一起的。


Is Africa Still Rising?

非洲仍在崛起吗？


WASHINGTON, DC – Between 2000 and 2014, Africa grew at a strong clip, fueling belief in the narrative of an “Africa rising.”

华盛顿—从2000年到2014年，非洲实现了强劲增长，这带来了一种“非洲崛起”的信念。


But, since 2015, growth across Sub-Saharan Africa has weakened, and the poor outlook for commodity prices has cast doubt on Africa’s economic promise, leading many to question the “Africa rising” narrative – and some to pronounce it dead.

但2015年后，整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区的增长有所放缓，而大宗商品价格的悲观前景也让人们开始质疑非洲的经济前途，许多人开始怀疑“非洲崛起”叙事 — — 更有人宣布非洲崛起的概念已死。


Such skepticism is, to some extent, understandable.

从某种程度上说，这样的怀疑不难理解。


The 2014 oil-price shock hit several African economies especially hard, and played a role in pushing aggregate growth down from 5-6% in 2004-2014 to just 2.5% in 2015-2017 – a rate that barely keeps up with population growth.

2014年石油价格冲击给一些非洲经济体造成了非常严重的影响，也让总体增长率从2004—2014年间的5—6%下降到2015—2017年的2.5 % — —这一增长率还赶不上人口增长率。


Moreover, the continent's three largest economies – Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa – have experienced major declines in performance.

此外，非洲的三个最大经济体 — — 安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非，表现都出现了大幅下滑。


Last year, Angola and South Africa’s economies stagnated, while the Nigerian economy actually contracted for the first time since 1991.

去年，安哥拉和南非经济出现停滞，而尼日利亚出现了1991年以来的首次实际萎缩。


The latest projections suggest that these economies will experience tepid recoveries in the coming years.

最新预测表明，这些经济体未来几年的复苏也将非常缓慢。


But Africa’s skeptics have overlooked a number of important factors.

但非洲怀疑派忽视了许多重要因素。


For starters, when one sets the three largest economies aside, Sub-Saharan Africa’s aggregate-growth rate for this year rises from 2.5% to almost 4%.

首先，如果你剔除掉三个最大的经济体，那么今年撒哈拉以南非洲总体增长率就能从2.5%增加到近4 % 。


That is faster than the 3.5% rate at which the global economy is currently growing.

这一数字高于当前全球经济增长率3.5 % 。


In fact, five of the ten fastest-growing economies in the world are in Africa.

事实上，全世界十个增长最快的经济体中，有五个来自非洲。


And over the next five years, around half of all Sub-Saharan economies will expand at an average rate similar to or higher than that which prevailed during the “Africa rising” heyday.

而在未来五年中，大约一半的撒哈拉以南经济体将实现不亚于“非洲崛起”顶峰时期的平均增长率。


Furthermore, high commodity prices were just one factor in the region’s strong economic performance between 2000 and 2014.

此外，高企的大宗商品价格只是2000—2014年间该地区经济表现强劲的一个因素。


Many African countries have made vast improvements to macroeconomic management, governance, and the business environment, and entrepreneurship is on the rise.

许多非洲国家在宏观经济管理、治理和营商环境方面取得了巨大进步，企业家精神也在蓬勃发展。


Even with lower commodity prices, these developments will continue to bolster many African economies.

即使大宗商品价格有所下跌，这些发展趋势仍能够支撑许多非洲经济体。


Today’s skepticism may reflect lasting memories from a darker period, and fears that Africa’s progress has not been sufficiently consolidated.

今天的怀疑论也许体现了对黑暗时代的记忆，以及对非洲的进步没有得到充分巩固的担忧。


From the 1970s to the mid-1990s, dictators ruled in many African countries, and the institutions necessary for sustaining strong economic growth were fragile at best.

从20世纪70年代到90年代中期，许多非洲国家由独裁者统治，维持强劲经济增长所需要的制度十分脆弱。


With civil wars constantly shredding the social fabric in many countries, the continent experienced decades of tepid economic growth.

内战不断地摧残着许多国家的社会结构，几十年来，整个非洲经济增长十分缓慢。


By 2000, it had been reduced to what The Economist called “Hopeless Africa.”

到2000年，非洲已经沦为《经济学人 》 （ The Economist）所谓的“没有希望的非洲 ” 。


But those days are gone.

但这些都是老黄历了。


Policymakers across the continent have sustained the 1990s-era reforms that set the stage for the subsequent period of high growth.

非洲决策者保持着20世纪90年代的改革，为后续高速增长打下了基础。


Although there is still much work to be done, the economic and business environment in many African countries has continued to improve, and institutions and governance have grown stronger.

尽管还有很多工作有待完成，但许多非洲国家的经济和营商环境持续改善，制度和治理也变得更加强大。


Owing to new information and communication technologies, Africans, particularly young Africans, are better informed, more engaged in civil and political discourse, and increasingly capable of holding their leaders accountable.

拜新信息和通讯技术所赐，非洲人，特别是非洲年轻人，对信息了解得更多，也更积极地参与民间和政治事务，越来越具备问责领导人的能力。


ICTs have also unleashed a wave of innovation and entrepreneurship across the continent.

信息和通讯技术还在非洲释放出一股创新和企业家精神的浪潮。


These positive trends are not likely to be reversed, and will continue to improve the economic conditions in Africa, even if commodity prices do not rebound.

这些积极的趋势很难逆转，将继续改善非洲的经济环境，即使大宗商品价格无法反弹。


After all, the region’s economic growth averaged 5.6% between 2000 and 2004, before commodity prices had begun their rapid ascent.

毕竟，2000—2004年间，大宗商品价格的迅速上涨尚未开始，非洲地区的平均增长率仍高达5.6 % 。


But that is not to say Africa will be spared from daunting challenges in the years ahead.

但这并不是说非洲能够在未来多年里不必面临艰巨挑战。


Globally, the economic environment will become less favorable for African economies.

放眼全球，经济环境对非洲经济体更加不利了。


In the major advanced economies, interest rates will soon rise, and the political backlash against globalization may force governments to abandon their past commitments to development assistance.

在主要发达经济体，利率很快就会上升，而针对全球化的政治反对力量可能迫使政府放弃过去许下的发展援助承诺。


In light of all this uncertainty, African policymakers should look inward, by focusing on policies to mobilize national resources and finance their economic agendas.

面临所有这些不确定性，非洲决策者应该向内看，专注于动员国家资源和经济日程融资政策。


Those agendas should include a number of key priorities.

这些日程应该包括一系列关键性重点。


African countries need to diversify their economies to withstand future shocks better, while also accelerating the pace of industrialization across the continent.

非洲国家需要实现经济多样化，以更好地抵御未来冲击，同时，整个非洲还需要加快工业化步伐。


Governments will have to find a way to create decent jobs for the 11 million people now entering the region’s labor force every year.

政府必须找到办法为每年加入劳动力大军的1,100万非洲人创造体面的工作。


And they will need to enact policies to reduce poverty, and ensure that prosperity is shared across all cohorts of society.

它们还需要采取措施减少贫困，确保繁荣被全体社会所共享。


These are particularly important goals for Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa.

对安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非来说，这些目标尤其重要。


Angola and Nigeria need to become far less reliant on oil; and South Africa still needs to implement far-reaching reforms to address structural problems that have plagued it since the apartheid era.

安哥拉和尼日利亚需要大幅降低对石油的依赖；南非仍然需要实施重大改革措施以解决自种族隔离时代以来困扰它的结构性问题。


Seeing these projects through will require competent political leaders who are committed to the principles of good governance.

真心实意地推行这些工程需要有能力的领导人坚守好治理原则。


Failure could result in an extended period of low growth.

失败可能导致长期低增长。


But even if Africa’s three largest economies do end up in the doldrums, it will not necessarily seal the fate of the “Africa rising” story.

但即使非洲最大的三个经济体最终陷入萧条 ， “ 非洲崛起”的故事也未必可以全盘否定。


After all, “Africa rising” need not mean “all” of Africa.

毕竟 ， “ 非洲崛起”不必是“全部”非洲的崛起。


From the 1960s to the 1990s, the “Asian Tigers” narrative referred only to Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, excluding other developing countries in Asia, such as China.

从20世纪60年代到90年代 ， “ 亚洲小龙”叙事也仅限于香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾，中国在内的其他亚洲发展中经济体都不在其列。


Similarly, African economies are increasingly differentiating themselves, and should thus be evaluated individually, on the merits of their respective economic policies.

类似地，非洲各经济体本身之间的差异日益扩大，因此，应该根据各自的经济政策的利弊，对它们进行单独的评估。


Africa Still Rising

非洲仍在冉冉升起


JOHANNESBURG – Is the honeymoon over for African economies?

约翰内斯堡 — — 非洲经济体的蜜月期是否已经结束？


Less than a decade ago, it seemed that the continent’s economic dreams were beginning to come true, with many countries experiencing impressive GDP growth and development.

不到十年前，随着许多国家取得惊人的GDP增长和发展，非洲大陆的经济之梦似乎正在变成现实。


Now, as the harsh reality of the continent’s vulnerability to challenging external conditions has set in, sustaining that growth has proved difficult.

现在，随着非洲大陆在充满挑战的外部环境面前的脆弱性逐渐显现，现有的增长速度已经很难保持。


Encumbered by slowing growth in China, a collapse in commodity prices, and adverse spillover from numerous security crises, Africa’s overall annual GDP growth averaged just 3.3% in 2010-2015, barely keeping up with population growth – and down sharply from the 4.9% recorded from 2000 to 2008.

在中国经济增长放缓、大宗商品价格暴跌以及不止一次安全危机的拖累下，非洲的年度总体GDP增长在2010到2015年仅为3.3 % ， 这一速度仅能勉强跟上人口增长 — — 与2000到2008年4.9%的记录相比速度大幅放缓。


But a deeper look suggests that things may not be as bad as they seem, for two key reasons.

但深层次观察表明局势也许不像看上去那样严重，得出这样的结论有两个主要原因。


First, though average growth has declined, some African economies have thrived in recent years.

首先，虽然平均增速有所回落，但某些非洲国家在近年来实现了蓬勃发展。


Indeed, aggregate GDP has been dragged down since 2010 by faltering growth among oil exporters and security-related crises in the Sahel and North Africa; but in the rest of Africa, GDP growth has accelerated, from 4.1% in 2000-2010 to 4.4% in 2010-2015.

事实上，石油出口国经济摇摇欲坠以及萨赫勒和北非地区爆发安全危机已经将2010年以来的GDP总量拉了下来；但在非洲其他地区，GDP发展呈加速之势，从2000到2010年的4.1%增长到2010到2015年的4.4 % 。


Second, Africa is undergoing a profound long-term transformation, characterized by rapid digitization, urbanization, and growth in the working-age population, which will outnumber the labor force of China and India by 2034.

其次，非洲正在经历一次以快速数字化、城市化和劳动年龄人口增长为特色的深刻的长期转型，非洲劳动人口截止2034年将在数量上超过中国和印度。


That demographic trend could unlock future growth by advancing economic diversification, spurring domestic consumption, and supporting industrialization.

这样一种人口趋势完全可能通过推进经济多样化、刺激国内消费和支持产业化来达到解锁未来经济增长的目的。


In fact, today’s high-growth countries – including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania – have made substantial progress in reducing their dependence on commodity exports, in favor of trade, investment, and domestic consumption.

事实上，今天的高增长国家 — — 包括科特迪瓦、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚 — — 都在减少依赖商品出口、发展贸易、投资和国内消费等方面取得了实质性的进展。


And many lower-growth countries could head down a similar path.

而且许多低增长国家也可以走上类似的道路。


New research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that spending by Africa’s consumers and businesses already totals $4 trillion.

麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）最新研究成果 显示非洲消费者和企业的支出总额已经达到4万亿美元。


By 2025, private spending could reach $5.6 trillion – $2.1 trillion by households, and $3.5 trillion by businesses.

截止2025年，私人开支可能达到5.6万亿美元 — — 其中2.1万亿美元来自家庭部门，而其余3.5万亿美元则来自企业。


This represents a huge opportunity for Africa���s manufacturers.

这为非洲制造企业创造了巨大的机会。


We believe that Africa can almost double its manufacturing output, to nearly $1 trillion, by 2025, with about 75% of that growth tied to production for local markets.

我们认为截止2025年非洲几乎可以实现制造业产出翻番，而相关增长中75%与当地市场生产密切相关。


The question is whether manufacturers will manage to exploit the growth potential that lies in front of them.

问题在于制造企业能否充分利用摆在他们面前的增长潜力。


African firms have not yet proved capable of meeting existing domestic demand.

非洲企业尚未用事实证明自己具备满足现有国内需求的能力。


Africa still imports about one-third of the food, beverages, and similar processed goods it consumes, whereas the Association of Southeast Asian Nations imports about 20%, and South America’s Mercosur trade bloc imports just 10%.

非洲所需的食品、饮料和类似加工产品约1/3仍依靠进口，而东南亚国家协会的进口比重仅为约20 % ， 南美南方共同市场集团进口比重仅为约10 % 。


Africa even imports 15% of the cement it uses, despite having abundant raw materials to make it at home.

甚至连非洲所用水泥的15%都要依靠进口，尽管非洲拥有充足的原材料可以实现国内生产。


To be sure, African business has made great strides in recent years.

可以肯定，非洲企业在近年来取得了长足的进步。


Today, 400 African companies have annual revenue of more than $1 billion, and 700 have annual revenue of more than $500 million.

今天，四百家非洲企业实现年收入超过10亿美元，另外还有七百家年收入超过5亿。


On the whole, these large companies are growing faster – and generating higher profits – than their global peers.

总体而言，与世界其他国家的同行相比，这些大企业正在快速成长 — — 取得的利润也越来越可观。


But there is still a long way to go.

但距离实现目标还有很长的路要走。


Large African (excluding South African) firms’ average annual revenue of $2 billion is half that of large firms in Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia.

大型非洲企业（除南非外）20亿美元的平均年收入仅为巴西、印度、墨西哥和俄罗斯等国的一半。


And Africa only has about 60% of the large firms it needs to put it at the same level as the emerging economies.

而非洲还要增设40%的大型企业才能与其他新兴经济体等量齐观。


One key factor limiting firms’ growth is the fragmented nature of the African market, which currently comprises mostly small economies with only limited economic and political linkages.

限制企业增长的一个关键因素是非洲市场四分五裂，现有的非洲市场主要由经济和政治联系有限的小型经济体构成。


There are eight partly overlapping regional trade zones, none of which includes more than half of Africa’s countries.

目前部分区域重叠的区域贸易区共有8个，却没有一个囊括了超过一半的非洲国家。


Only Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa rank in the top 100 of MGI’s Global Connectedness Index.

只有埃及、摩洛哥、尼日利亚和南非在麦肯锡全球研究院的全球联通指数中跻身前100位。


Beyond excessive trade barriers, Africa suffers from inadequate transport links and limits on the free movement of people.

除贸易壁垒高企外，人员自由流动和交通联系匮乏同样困扰着非洲。


Africans need visas to travel to more than half the countries on their own continent.

非洲人前往自己大陆的一半以上国家还需要签证。


The recent launch of the African Union passport is a step in the right direction – but it is only one step.

近期推出的非洲联盟护照是朝正确方向迈出的一步 — — 但也仅仅是一步而已。


A more integrated market would not only enable African companies to create the economies of scale they need to compete; it would also be far more appealing to institutional investors.

加强市场融合不仅将为非洲企业创造出竞争所需的规模经济；还可以在很大程度上吸引机构投资者。


Building such a market must therefore be a top priority for African leaders, as they seek to unleash the continent’s economic potential.

建设这样的市场因此必须成为非洲领导人的首要任务，这样才能释放非洲大陆的经济潜能。


Equally important, Africa’s leaders must work to improve the business environment.

非洲领导人必须努力改善营商环境，这一点同样重要。


Though some progress has been made on this front in the last two decades, non-tariff barriers remain high.

尽管过去二十年来这方面已经取得了一定进步，但非关税壁垒依然很高。


Indeed, regulatory issues are still cited as a serious deterrent to investment.

事实上，监管问题依然严重制约着投资。


Many African businesses – nearly half of companies in Nigeria, and more than one-third in Angola and Egypt – highlight unreliable electricity supplies as a major challenge.

许多非洲企业 — — 尼日利亚企业的将近一半、安哥拉和埃及的超过1/3 — — 强调电力供应不可靠对他们构成严重挑战。


And almost 40% of firms surveyed by the World Bank lament the constraints imposed by competition from informal firms.

接受世界银行调查企业中近40%对非正规企业竞争带来的限制深表遗憾 。


Some of these issues could be addressed relatively quickly.

其中某些问题解决起来速度较快。


Consider the strides Rwanda has made since 2007, when it established a development board to improve its business environment.

比如从2007年设立发展委员会改善营商环境以来卢旺达已经取得了很大进展。


In less than a decade, that board has led the creation of a “one-stop center” to facilitate investment, has overseen streamlined issuance of construction permits, and has pressed successfully for a fixed fee for property registration, the extension of customs hours, and risk-based customs inspections.

在不到十年时间里，该委员会已经领导创立了促进投资的“一站式中心 ” 、 一直负责监管建筑许可证的快速发放，并成功促进在财产登记、海关延长营业时间和以经营风险为基础的海关检查领域收取固定费用。


As a result, Rwanda’s global ranking for the ease of doing business jumped from 143 in 2008 to 32 in 2014.

结果导致卢旺达的全球营商环境排名从2008年的第143位跃升至2014年的第32位。


This success can surely be replicated elsewhere in Africa.

非洲其他国家无疑也可以复制这样的成功。


Despite the challenges some African countries face, the continent’s economic potential remains massive, thanks to favorable demographic dynamics, fast-growing cities, burgeoning domestic markets, and a digital revolution.

尽管非洲国家面临诸多挑战，但多亏乐观的人口趋势、快速发展的城市、蓬勃发展的国内市场和数字革命，非洲大陆仍然拥有巨大的经济发展潜能。


With the right policies, a relentless focus on execution, and a great deal of determination, Africa can still rise.

只要政策对路、执行到位、决心不动摇，非洲仍然有崛起的机会。


Africa’s Arrival

非洲发展的时刻到了


NEW YORK – The African Development Bank (AfDB) has just published its African Economic Outlook for 2018.

纽约 — — 非洲开发银行刚刚发布了其2018年非洲经济展望报告。


This year’s revamped publication – shorter than usual, analytically well-structured, and written in lucid prose, without hyperbole – in some ways mirrors Africa’s own transformation, as it raises hopes that we may at last be witnessing the continent’s long-promised economic arrival.

今年经过修订的版本 — — 比往年更简短、分析结构更合理、文风条理清晰不夸张 — — 以某种方式反映了非洲自身的转型，因为它或许让我们最终看到了非洲大陆期待已久的经济发展的希望。


Africa’s rise has been a long time coming.

人们一直在等待非洲的崛起。


In the 1960s, hopes were high.

世纪60年代，外界抱有很高的希望。


The remarkable leaders of the independence generation – such as Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah and Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta – received advice from the world’s top economists.

独立一代的杰出领袖 — — 包括加纳的克瓦米·恩克鲁玛和肯尼亚的乔莫·肯雅塔 — — 得到了世界顶级经济学家的顾问服务。


The Caribbean-born Nobel laureate Arthur Lewis became Nkrumah’s Chief Economic Adviser.

加勒比出生的诺贝尔奖得主阿瑟·刘易斯曾担任恩克鲁玛的首席经济顾问。


In India, we read about these leaders’ friendship with our own post-independence prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the hope for a new dawn for all emerging economies.

在印度，我们读懂了这些领导人与我们自己的后独立期总理尼赫鲁的友谊，也看到了所有新兴经济体新的曙光。


And many emerging economies did indeed take off.

而许多新兴经济体也确实走上了腾飞之路。


In the late 1960s, some East Asian economies surged ahead.

20世纪60年代末，一些东亚国家快速发展。


Beginning in the early 1980s, China began its decades-long rise.

20世纪80年代初开始，中国也踏上了长达十年的崛起之路。


And, from the early 1990s, India’s economy also began to grow robustly, with annual rates reaching the 9% range by 2005.

而从20世纪90年代早期，印度经济也开始强劲增长，2005年的年增长率高达9 % 。


But Africa remained stagnant, mired in poverty.

但非洲仍停滞不前，深陷于贫困当中。


Ironically, it was the continent’s resource wealth that hampered economic progress, as it fueled conflicts among governments and insurgents eager to control it.

颇具讽刺意味的是，这块大陆的资源财富因为引发了政府和急于控制这些财富的武装分子之间的冲突而阻碍了经济进步。


The resulting political instability attracted outsiders keen to exploit governments’ weakness.

由此造成的政局动荡吸引了热衷于利用政府弱点的外来者。


As the Indian poet and Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore put it in his 1936 poem “Ode to Africa,” which played on perceptions about who is “civilized,” the continent fell prey to “civilization’s barbaric greed,” as the colonists “arrived, manacles in hand/Claws sharper by far than any of your wolves.”

印度诗人兼诺贝尔奖得主拉宾德拉纳特·泰戈尔1936年创作了“非洲颂歌 ” ， 他在这首诗中表达了对文明的看法，指出随着手里拿着手铐/爪牙比狼更锋利的殖民者的到来，非洲大陆沦为了“文明世界野蛮贪婪”的猎物。


Finally, at the turn of the twenty-first century, things began to change for Africa.

最终，在21世纪之交，非洲的局面开始发生变化。


A few dynamic leaders, democratic stirrings, and emerging regional cooperation led to a decline in poverty and a pickup in growth.

一些有活力的领导人、活跃的民主事件和新兴的地区合作导致贫困下降、经济增长率上升。


Commodity exporters faced a setback around 2014, when prices plummeted.

大宗商品出口国在2014年前后因为价格大幅下挫而经历了某些挫折。


But this turned out to be a blessing in disguise, because it forced countries to diversify their economies and increase production – factors that supported renewed growth.

但这却逐渐演变成一件变相的好事，因为这迫使各国增加产量并实现经济多元化 — — 而这些因素又支撑了新的增长。


According to the AfDB report, Africa’s 54 economies grew by 2.2% in 2016, on average, and 3.6% in 2017.

非洲开发银行报告显示，非洲54个经济体2016年平均增长2.2 % ， 2017年则增长3.6 % 。


In 2018, the AfDB predicts, average growth will accelerate to 4.1%, while the World Bank expects Ghana to grow by 8.3%, Ethiopia by 8.2%, and Senegal by 6.9%, placing these countries among the world’s fastest-growing economies.

非洲开发银行预测2018年平均增长率将提高到4.1 % ， 而世界银行预期加纳将增长8.3 % ， 埃塞俄比亚8.2 % 、 塞内加尔6.9 % ， 跻身全世界增长最快经济体之列。


And these figures are not wishful thinking: in 2016, Ethiopia’s GDP grew by 7.6%.

这些数字并不是一厢情愿的痴心妄想：2016年，埃塞俄比亚的GDP增长7.6 % 。


Of course, serious challenges remain.

当然，非洲仍然面临严峻的挑战。


South Africa, the continent’s strongest economy, is now facing the difficult task of tackling its deep-rooted corruption.

这块大陆最强劲的经济体南非现在正面临着解决根深蒂固的腐败的艰巨任务。


Yet, with the African National Congress now apparently determined to replace President Jacob Zuma’s scandal-ridden administration with one led by the party’s new leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, there is reason for hope.

但因为非国大目前显然决心用该党新领袖西里尔·拉马福萨来取代雅各布·祖马（Jacob Zuma）总统丑闻缠身的政府，人们有理由充满希望。


More broadly, many African countries need to find ways to create more employment – and fast.

更广义的看，许多非洲国家需要想方设法快速创造更多就业。


The share of the working-age population is rising faster in Africa than in any other region.

非洲劳动年龄人口比例的上升比其他任何地区都快。


This “demographic dividend” has immense potential.

这一“人口红利”可能带来巨大的潜能。


But if job creation stalls, the unemployed or under-employed are likely to become frustrated – a recipe for conflict.

但如果就业创造停滞不前，失业或就业不足者很有可能会感到沮丧 — — 并进而造成冲突。


Consider the case of Tanzania.

以坦桑尼亚为例。


Thanks to President John Magufuli’s effort to mobilize more domestic revenue to support increased development spending, the economy is doing well.

多亏约翰·马古夫里总统努力调动更多国内收入来支持追加发展开支，该国经济目前表现良好。


But, with roughly 800,000 individuals entering the labor force each year, Tanzania needs much more working capital, better infrastructure, and educational reform aimed at ensuring that workers have the skills, resources, and opportunities to secure decent jobs.

但因为每年约有 800,000人要加入劳动力队伍，坦桑尼亚还需要更多周转资金、更好的基础设施和旨在确保工人拥有体面就业所需技术、资源和机会的教育改革。


The same is true of Ethiopia.

埃塞俄比亚的情况也是一样。


In the last couple of decades, the country has made great strides in export-led growth, supported by a growing industrial sector and large investments from China.

过去几十年，在工业持续增长和来自中国的巨额投资的支持下，该国的出口拉动型增长已经取得了长足的进步。


Now, it is poised to take over as the economic powerhouse of East Africa.

现在，埃塞俄比亚已经注定成为东非的经济强国。


Yet the urban youth unemployment rate stands at 23.3%. Left unchecked, this situation could easily end up fueling ethnic conflict and political turmoil.

但城市青年失业率维持在23.3 % ： 如果不加以控制，这种情况很可能导致种族冲突和政治动荡。


Another, related challenge concerns resource mobilization: countries need funds to invest in infrastructure, human capital, and the creation of trade and digital links within and beyond Africa.

另一个相关挑战涉及资源调配：各国需要资金投资于非洲内外的基础设施、人力资源以及贸易和数字联系的创造。


The AfDB report estimates that, for infrastructure investment alone, the continent needs some $170 billion per year, which is $100 billion more than is currently available.

非洲开发银行报告预计仅基础设施投资一项，非洲大陆每年就需要约1，700亿美元，这比现有资金高出一千亿之多。


As it stands, Africa receives a total of about $60 billion in foreign direct investment each year.

目前，非洲每年能获得总共约600亿美元的外国直接投资援助。


To close the gap, African governments must attract more money.

非洲政府必须吸引更多资金来弥补这一差距。


That will require establishing effective regulatory structures that facilitate long-term borrowing and repayment, while ensuring that lenders do not exploit borrowers, as has occurred everywhere from rural India to the United States mortgage market.

而这需要建立促进长期借贷和还贷的有效的监管制度，并确保债主不像在印度农村和美国抵押贷市场那样剥削借贷者。


The challenges are daunting, to say the least.

至少可以说，挑战是艰巨的。


But there are lessons that African countries can learn from one another.

但非洲国家可以相互吸取经验。


For example, Ghana’s smooth transfer of power after the December 2016 election set a positive democratic example.

例如，加纳在2016年12月选举后权力顺利移交树立了民主制度的积极榜样。


Nigeria’s Lagos State and Tanzania have done a good job of mobilizing internal resources for development.

尼日利亚的拉各斯州和坦桑尼亚在调动内部资源谋求发展方面做的非常不错。


Add to that the emergence of an indigenous intelligentsia in the region, exemplified by organizations like the AfDB, and it seems that Africa’s moment may have arrived at last.

加之像非洲开发银行等机构所代表的地区本土知识阶层的崛起，目前的情况似乎是非洲的发展机会可能最终到来了。


Africa’s Schooling Without Learning

非洲的校内失教问题


ACCRA – As the school year began this September, there was welcome news for Ghana’s nearly half-million students entering high school: President Nana Akufo-Addo had fulfilled his campaign promise of free secondary education for children nationwide.

发自阿克拉 — — 随着9月新学年开始，新升读高中的近五十万加纳学生迎来了好消息：纳纳·阿库福-阿多总统履行了他关于为全国儿童提供免费中学教育运动的承诺。


He swore not only to do away with admissions fees, but also to provide free textbooks and meals, the cost of which had often remained a barrier for the poorest students.

他不仅宣誓要免除学费，还提供免费的教科书和膳食 — — 这两者过往总会成为阻止那些最贫困学生入学的障碍。


Ghana had introduced free compulsory education at the primary and junior high school levels in 1995, but implementation had been painfully slow – and students’ educational dreams were often cut off before high school.

加纳1995年开始在小学和初中阶段实行免费义务教育，但执行情况不尽人意 — — 学生的求学梦往往在升读高中之前就告终。


Even in 2014, only 37% of the nation’s students were enrolled in secondary school, owing to high fees.

即使是在2014年，在高昂的收费下全国只有37％的学生入读中学。


The president’s move is thus an inspiring example that Ghana’s neighbors should follow.

而总统的这一举动则是诸邻国应当仿效的一个鼓舞人心的榜样。


Unfortunately, despite progressive reforms like these, students across Africa still face other steep barriers to a truly comprehensive education.

不幸的是，尽管实施了这些渐进式改革，非洲的学生们在实现真正全面教育方面依然面临这其他严重阻碍。


In Ghana, for example, poor and rural children are unlikely to reap the full benefits of their new access to secondary education.

就算在加纳，贫穷和农村的孩子依然难以从新的中学教育政策中得益。


The situation is arguably worse elsewhere on the continent.

非洲大陆其他地区的情况可能更糟。


The issue is not only lack of access to schools, but also lack of good schools.

问题不仅在于无法进入学校就读，也在于缺乏好学校。


The results of a staggering new report from the UNESCO Institute of Statistics show that six out of ten children and adolescents around the world – 600 million in total – are not achieving basic skills in mathematics and reading.

联合国教科文组织统计研究所新发布的一份令人震惊的报告显示，全球每10个儿童和青少年中有就有6人 — — 合共6亿人 — — 未能习得数学和阅读方面的基本技能。


In Sub-Saharan Africa, it is estimated that 88% of children and teenagers will enter adulthood without basic literacy.

在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，有88％的儿童和青少年在不具备基本识字能力的情况下就进入成年阶段。


This constitutes a moral and development crisis that demands immediate action.

这就构成了一个需要立即采取行动应对的道德和发展危机。


Having served as head of the department of Ga-Dangme education at the University of Education in Winneba, I know from first-hand experience that one of the main problems is lack of education and absenteeism among teachers themselves.

对此曾任加纳温尼巴教育大学加-阿当梅语（Ga-Dangme）教育系主任的笔者从自身的经验体会到，主要问题之一是教育缺乏以及教师缺勤。


The World Bank, which similarly raised the issue of “schooling without learning” in a new report, has corroborated my view.

世界银行在其新发布的一份报告中同样提出了“来到学校却未能接受教育”的问题，同样证实了我的看法。


Addressing this issue requires investing more in teachers’ colleges, promoting teaching as the career of nation-builders, and encouraging the best and brightest students to aspire to a teaching career.

解决这个问题需要投资设立更多的师范学院，推崇教学作为国家建设者的职业荣誉，同时鼓励最优秀最聪明的学生走上教学生涯。


We cannot expect students to learn from poorly educated, poorly paid teachers.

我们不能指望那些从受过良好教育，薪酬微薄的老师那里学到什么东西。


We must also invest more in resources for schools and learning across the board, from scholarships for poor students to new libraries and classroom equipment.

我们还必须投入更多的资源 — — 包括从贫困学生奖学金到新的图书馆和教室设备 — — 来全方位地提升学校和学习状况。


With so many African governments already failing to provide equal, high-quality access to education for their citizens, this is not a challenge that they can take on alone.

由于很多非洲国家政府都无力为公民提供平等而高质量的受教育渠道，所以这不是一个它们能去独立承担的挑战。


As the continent’s population booms – half of the world’s population growth between 2017 and 2050 is expected to occur here – African heads of state will have to work closely with key allies and multilateral organizations to bring in funding and share know-how.

随着非洲大陆人口的增长 — — 预计2017至2050年间全世界有一半人口增长都源自此地 — — 非洲国家元首必须与主要盟国和多边组织密切合作以争取资助和分享核心教育技巧。


Fortunately, with the launch of the UNESCO report, several partners have already stepped up.

幸运的是，随着联合国教科文组织报告的面世，几个合作伙伴已经站了出来。


French President Emmanuel Macron is perhaps the most prominent of those who have promised to make investment in education in Africa a high priority.

而法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）也许是承诺将非洲教育投资作为优先选项的国家元首中最为突出的一位。


As the UN’s main educational and cultural organization, UNESCO itself will play a key role in promoting initiatives to bring free, high-quality schooling to students across the continent.

作为联合国的主要教育和文化组织，教科文组织本身将在推动为非洲大陆学生提供免费，高质量的学校教育方面发挥关键作用。


And whoever takes over UNESCO, following the election of a new director-general next month, will have a make-or-break opportunity to craft the right agenda to meet this challenge.

在下个月选举上台执掌教科文组织的新任总干事也将有机会制定正确的议程来应对这一挑战。


Currently, the organization is mired in a financial crisis and internecine disputes, and it will need a leader who has the vision to solve both internal and external problems.

当前该组织陷入了财政困局和内部纠纷之中，它需要一位具有眼光去解决内部和外部问题的领导者。


Notably, France’s candidate, former Minister of Culture and Communication Audrey Azoulay, has put both UNESCO’s internal crisis and education at the top of her agenda.

值得注意的是，法国的候选人，前文化交流部长奥黛丽·安祖拉（Audrey Azoulay）将教科文组织的内部危机和教育置于其议程的首位。


She has singled out the financial crisis as the biggest threat facing UNESCO and has stressed the need for greater dialogue with members in arrears, like the United States.

她将财政困局列为教科文组织面临的最大威胁，并强调需要与美国等拖欠会费的成员国进行更多的对话。


In her previous governmental roles, Azoulay helped launch a global plan for cultural diversity through books and introduced plans to protect cultural heritage in conflict zones.

在其以前担任的政府角色中，安祖拉协助发起了一项通过书籍宣传全球文化多样性计划并提出了保护冲突地区文化遗产的计划。


Azoulay also has called for UNESCO to treat education as a catalyst for development and gender equality, and as the best way to help combat the “radicalization of the mind.”

她还呼吁教科文组织将教育作为促进发展和性别平等的催化剂，也是协助打击“思想激进化”的最佳途径。


If elected, she has promised to put Sustainable Development Goal 4 – universal quality education – at the heart of UNESCO’s mission, with a special focus on Africa.

她承诺如果当选的话会将可持续发展目标4 — — 普适性的高质量教育 — — 作为教科文组织的核心使命，并会特别关注非洲。


The preamble to the Constitution of UNESCO declares, “Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defenses of peace must be constructed.”

《联合国教科文组织宪章》序言部分指出 ： “ 由于战争发端于人们的心灵，所以应当在人们心中建立起对和平的捍卫。


Unfortunately, in Africa, we know all too well what happens when efforts to construct the defenses of peace ultimately fail.

”不幸的是，在非洲我们都知道在构建捍卫和平的努力最终失败后会产生什么后果。


Islamist insurgents continue to pose a threat to Mali, where in 2013, they set fire to a library holding thousands of priceless historical manuscripts in the ancient cultural center of Timbuktu.

伊斯兰武装分子持续对马里施加威胁，在2013年他们就在纵火烧毁了位于廷巴克图古带文化中心区的一座藏有数千部无价历史手稿的图书馆。


The incident was not only a devastating blow to world heritage; it was also a reminder of Africa’s history as a center for cultural exchange, literacy, and learning, and a call to action.

这一事件不仅是对世界文化遗产的一个沉重打击啊；也提醒了人们非洲曾是一个文化交流，文学和教育的中心，且亟待行动去拯救。


The stakes for Africa are high.

非洲承受的风险极高。


Our children are threatened not only by lack of access to schools, but also by lack of opportunities to learn, and by the loss of irreplaceable fragments of their rich history.

我们的孩子不仅受到无力入学的威胁，还缺乏学习的机会, 更失去了自身丰富历史中不可替代的部分。


We must hope that more governments follow Ghana’s example, that more allies like France increase their support, and that the new director general will place a high priority on UNESCO’s missions in Africa, which are more critical than ever.

我们真心希望更多的国家政府能仿效加纳的榜样, 更多像法国这样的盟国能增加它们的支持，而新的总干事能教科文组织在非洲的使命列为优先事务，所有这一切都将比以往任何时候更为重要。


Africa’s Year of Opportunity

非洲的机遇之年


GENEVA – We are still near the start of 2018, and already it feels like tension and disorder will be the year’s defining characteristics.

日内瓦 — — 我们刚刚进入2018年年初，就已经感受到紧张和混乱将成为这一年的决定性特点。


From anti-immigration policies in the United States to flaring geopolitical hotspots in the Middle East and East Asia, disruption, upheaval, and uncertainty seem to be the order of the day.

从美国的反移民政策到中东和东亚引人瞩目的地缘政治热点，破坏、动荡和不确定性似乎在当下司空见惯。


But at least one metric offers reason for cautious optimism: economic growth.

但至少一个指标让我们有理由保持谨慎乐观：那就是经济发展。


The International Monetary Fund estimates that global growth will reach 3.7% this year, up from 3.6% in 2017.

国际货币基金组织估计今年的全球经济增长将达到3.7 % ， 高于2017年的3.6 % 。


As Christine Lagarde, the Fund’s managing director, put it in a speech in December, “The sun is shining through the clouds and helping most economies generate the strongest growth since the financial crisis.”

就像国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在12月的一次演讲中所说的那样 ， “ 阳光正在穿透乌云，并协助绝大多数经济体取得自金融危机以来最强劲的发展。 ”


It was fitting that Lagarde made that observation in Addis Ababa, because it is in Africa where the rays of prosperity are shining brightest.

拉加德在亚的斯亚贝巴得出这样的结论是正常的，因为繁荣之光在非洲闪耀得最为亮眼。


In fact, I predict that 2018 will be a breakout year for many – though not all – African economies, owing to gains in eight key areas.

事实上，因为八个关键领域的增长，我预测2018年将成为许多 — — 虽然并不是全部 — — 非洲经济体的突破之年。


For starters, Africa is poised for a modest, if fragmented, growth recovery.

首先，即使断断续续，非洲也即将实现缓慢的经济复苏。


Following three years of weak economic performance, overall growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% this year, from 2.9% in 2017.

在经历三年经济表现疲弱的考验后，总体增长预计将从2017年的2.9%加速至今年的3.5 % 。


This year’s projected gains will come amid improved global conditions, increased oil output, and the easing of drought conditions in the east and south.

今年的预期增长主要来自于全球环境改善、石油产量增加以及东南部非洲地区旱灾的缓解。


To be sure, growth will be uneven.

可以肯定，增长并不平衡。


While nearly a third of African economies will grow by around 5%, slowdowns are likely in at least a dozen others.

虽然近1/3的非洲经济体将实现约5%的增长，但还有十多个非洲国家的经济增长可能放缓。


Sharp increases in public debt, which has reached 50% of GDP in nearly half of Sub-Saharan countries, are particularly worrying.

近半数撒哈拉以南非洲国家公共债务激增至GDP的50 % ， 这种状况特别令人焦虑。


But, overall, Africa is positioned for a positive year.

但总体而言，非洲将迎来积极的一年。


Second, Africa’s political landscape is liberalizing.

第二，非洲的政治格局正在实现自由化。


Some of Africa’s longest-serving presidents – including Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Angola’s José Eduardo dos Santos, and the Gambia’s Yahya Jammeh – exited in 2017.

某些非洲任期最长的总统于2017年退位 — — 包括津巴布韦的罗伯特·穆加贝、安哥拉的何塞·爱德华多·多斯桑托斯和冈比亚的叶海亚·贾梅。


In South Africa, Jacob Zuma’s resignation allowed Cyril Ramaphosa to become president.

在南非，雅各布·祖马的辞职让西里尔·拉马福萨成为总统。


In January, Liberians witnessed their country’s first peaceful transfer of power since 1944, when former soccer star George Weah was sworn into office.

1月，利比亚民众目睹了自1944年以来第一次权力的和平转移，前足球明星乔治·维阿宣誓就职总统。


All of these gains will be tested, however, as voters in 18 countries go to the polls this year.

随着今年有18个国家的选民参与投票，所有这一切进步都将经受考验。