But this assumption can produce troubling outcomes.

但这种假设可能造成的结果却会令人不安。


For example, consider how algorithms are being used to decide whether prisoners are deserving of parole.

比如，假设使用算法来决定囚犯是否应当获得假释。


An important 2017 study finds that algorithms far outperform humans in predicting recidivism rates, and could be used to reduce the “jailing rate” by more than 40% “with no increase in crime rates.”

2017年一项重要的研究发现，算法在预测累犯率方面的成效远远高于人类，并且可以用来将“监禁率”降低40%以上，同时“并不导致犯罪率的增加 ” 。


In the United States, then, AIs could be used to reduce a prison population that is disproportionately black.

于是在美国，人工智能可以被用于改变黑人监禁人口不成比例的状况。


But what happens when AIs take over the parole process and African-Americans are still being jailed at a higher rate than whites?

但如果由人工智能接管假释程序后，非洲裔美国人的监禁比例仍然高于白人该怎么办？


Highly efficient algorithmic decision-making has brought such questions to the fore, forcing us to decide precisely which outcomes should be maximized.

高效的算法决策令这些问题脱颖而出，并迫使我们准确地决定究竟应当最大化哪些结果。


Do we want merely to reduce the overall prison population, or should we also be concerned about fairness?

我们是单纯地想要减少总体监禁人口，还是也应当对公平给予恰当的关注？


Whereas politics allows for fudges and compromises to disguise such tradeoffs, computer code requires clarity.

尽管政治可以允许回避和妥协来隐藏这种权衡，但计算机代码却必须清晰明了。


That demand for clarity is making it harder to ignore the structural sources of societal inequities.

这种对清晰的要求使得人们对社会不公平的结构性来源更加难以忽视。


In the age of AI, algorithms will force us to recognize how the outcomes of past social and political conflicts have been perpetuated into the present through our use of data.

在人工智能时代，算法将迫使我们清晰地认识过往社会和政治冲突的结果如何能够通过我们对数据的利用而延续到现在。


Thanks to groups such as the AI Ethics Initiative and the Partnership on AI, a broader debate about the ethics of AI has begun to emerge.

多亏人工智能道德倡议和人工智能合作伙伴等团体，关于人工智能道德更广泛的讨论已经开始出现。


But AI algorithms are of course just doing what they are coded to do.

但人工智能算法当然仅仅是按照编码来工作。


The real issue extends beyond the use of algorithmic decision-making in corporate and political governance, and strikes at the ethical foundations of our societies.

真正的问题不仅仅限于企业和政治治理领域对算法决策的运用，同时也在抨击我们社会的道德基础。


While we certainly need to debate the practical and philosophical tradeoffs of maximizing “utility” through AI, we also need to engage in self-reflection.

在我们当然要对通过人工智能实现效用“最大化”所需的实践和哲学权衡展开辩论的同时，我们也需要进行自我反思。


Algorithms are posing fundamental questions about how we have organized social, political, and economic relations to date.

算法正在提出迄今为止我们如何组织社会、政治和经济关系的根本性问题。


We now must decide if we really want to encode current social arrangements into the decision-making structures of the future.

我们现在必须决定，我们是否真的希望将现有的社会安排编入到未来的决策机制。


Given the political fracturing currently occurring around the world, this seems like a good moment to write a new script.

鉴于目前世界各国正在发生的政治分裂，这似乎是开启全新篇章的最好时机。


A Better Global Framework to End AIDS

一个更好的消灭艾滋病全球框架


STOCKHOLM, GENEVA – This week, we celebrate the tremendous progress that has been made in the struggle against HIV and AIDS.

斯托克霍姆、日内瓦—本周，我们为对抗艾滋病方面所取得的进步而欢呼。


In many countries with strong health systems, HIV is no longer a death sentence, but a chronic condition.

在许多具备强有力的卫生体系的国家，艾滋病早已不再等同于死刑，而只是一种慢性病。


And Africa has reached a critical milestone: each year, there are now more Africans starting HIV treatment than being infected.

非洲也抵达了临界点：如今，每年开始治疗艾滋病的非洲人数量已经超过了被感染人数。


Still, even as we celebrate, we must also mourn the 1.1 million people who lost their lives to the disease this year.

但是，在我们欢呼的同时，仍然要为今年因为艾滋病而丧生的110万人默哀。


HIV still infects 6,000 people every day, and AIDS remains a leading cause of death among children, adolescents, and women in Africa.

每一天都有6,000人感染艾滋病毒，艾滋病也仍然是非洲儿童、青少年和妇女的主要死因之一。


The movement against AIDS has inspired all of us to help the people who continue to be left behind, and to commit to ending AIDS once and for all.

打击艾滋病运动激发我们所有人帮助落后人群，并致力于一劳永逸地消灭艾滋病。


Fortunately, we already have the know-how, resources, and, crucially, the political momentum to do this; and at the High-Level Meeting on Ending AIDS this year, United Nations member states made ambitious commitments that will put us on the fast track toward our goal.

幸运的是，我们已经具备了完成这一目标的知识、资源以及最重要的政治动力；在今年的消灭艾滋病高规格会议上，联合国各成员国做出了雄心勃勃的承诺，这些承诺将让我们走上实现目标的快车道。


What’s more, in September, Canada hosted a successful financing conference for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, which brought in almost $13 billion, replenishing the Global Fund for 2017-2019.

此外，9月加拿大举办了成功的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金融资会议，筹德近130亿美元资金，足够全球基金2017—2019年的用度。


Meanwhile, individual countries have increased their domestic investments, and international partners – big and small – have maintained their support, which is how we will reach the $26 billion needed for the global AIDS response in 2020.

与此同时，个别国家也增加了国内投资，而国际合作方 — — 不论大小 — — 也保持了支持，我们也因此能够筹足2020年全球艾滋病应对计划所需要的260亿美元资金。


But funding parts of the global health system is not enough.

但为全球卫生体系筹资是不够的。


The international community must take a more holistic view and reinforce a global-response architecture that features a clear division of labor and seamless cooperation among various stakeholders.

国际社会必须采取更加全面的视角，加强全球响应安排，这一安排必须对各利益相关方做出明确的分工和紧密的合作。


Ultimately, the goal of such a framework must be to support countries’ own health systems, by marshaling public and private actors at all levels in a given country, so that every facility – from the public hospital in the capital to the village clinic – is properly provisioned.

说到底，这一安排的目标必然是支持各国自身的卫生体系，方法是引导给定国家的各层次公共和私人行动方，以使所有设施 — — 从首都公立医院到乡村诊所 — — 都有合适的准备。


Sweden is proud to continue its support for the Global Fund; at the replenishment conference in September, it pledged 2.5 billion krona ($271 million).

瑞典为一直支持全球基金而感到骄傲；在9月的筹资会议上，瑞典承诺出资25亿克朗（2.71亿美元 ） 。


The Global Fund is by far the largest multilateral source of financing for efforts to fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria; but just like the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (now known as Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance), it is part of a global architecture, and relies on a range of partners to deliver aid effectively.

全球基金是目前规模最大的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾多边融资源；但正如全球疫苗和免疫联盟（目前称为Gavi，或疫苗联盟 ） ， 它只是更大的全球安排的一部分，依靠各合作方有效提供援助。


So, if country-level support for other global-health organizations – such as UNAIDS, the World Health Organization, and the UN Development Programme – dries up, continued progress in the fight against HIV and AIDS will be at risk.

因此，如果支持其他全球卫生组织 — — 如联合国艾滋病规划署、世界卫生组织和联合国开发规划署等 — — 的国家层面支持干涸，就很难保持打击艾滋病方面的进展。


Providing the necessary support will require donors to coordinate with one another, so that all parts of the existing architecture for managing global health issues are adequately funded.

提供必需的支持需要出资方彼此合作，以使全球卫生问题的当前安排的各个部分都能获得充足的资金。


This will then ensure that all countries – and, more importantly, all people – receive the support they need.

这反过来将确保所有国家 — — 以及更重要的所有人民 — — 都能获得需要的支持。


UNAIDS is setting a powerful example for international collaboration, by organizing partners around a common 2016-2021 Strategy to end AIDS.

联合国艾滋病规划署为国际合作树立了强有力的榜样，它组织各方为消灭艾滋病的2016-2021年战略的共同目标而努力。


This unique and innovative partnership brings together 11 co-sponsoring UN agencies, each with diverse sector-specific expertise, and mobilizes various government stakeholders.

这一独特的创新合作安排集合了11家联合国机构共同出资，它们各自具备多样化的具体部门的专业经验，并动员各大全球利益相关方。


Partners include business, community, and faith leaders, as well as teachers, judges, members of law enforcement, parliamentarians, and many others outside the health sector whose actions nonetheless affect health outcomes.

合作方包括企业、社区和宗教领袖，也包括教师、法官、执法官员、议会议员和许多卫生部门之外但能够影响到卫生结果的人士。


One of UNAIDS’ tasks is to encourage national governments to keep AIDS high on their public-health agendas, and to invest in joint efforts to end the disease.

联合国艾滋病规划署的任务之一是鼓励国家政府将艾滋病列为公共卫生日程重点，并联手投资于消灭这种疾病。


It is also the only organization with a mandate to set norms and standards for the global response to AIDS, which means that it plays a key role in the current international framework.

它是唯一一个拥有制定全球艾滋病应对措施规范与标准的权力的组织，这意味着它在目前的国际安排中起着关键性作用。


UNAIDS maintains a close partnership with the Global Fund.

联合国艾滋病规划署与全球基金保持着紧密合作。


It has a presence in more than 80 countries, and its regional teams provide technical support and strategic information, which helps the Global Fund direct its grants to the right programs, locations, and populations at sufficient scale.

它在80多个国家设有办事处，其地区团队可以提供技术支持和战略性信息，从而有助于全球基金将足够规模的资金投向正确的项目、地区和人口。


Moreover, it helps to create the social, legal, and political conditions for people to use health services, not least by promoting gender equality and ensuring that populations at higher risk of contracting HIV do not face adverse discrimination.

此外，它还有助于为人们创造使用医疗服务的社会、法律和政治条件，手段包括但不限于促进性别平等和确保染艾滋病毒高危人群不会面临歧视。


UNAIDS engages with civil society at all levels, by leveraging the international AIDS response to promote equality, dignity, and human rights around the world.

通过利用国际艾滋病应对计划促进全世界的平等、尊严和人权，联合国艾滋病规划署与各个层面的公民社会进行合作。


As such, UNAIDS works to expand the political space for – and investment in – civil society.

在这些合作中，联合国艾滋病规划署致力于为公民社会扩大政治空间和投资。


Yet, despite its broad mandate and many functions, UNAIDS lacks adequate resources, which threatens past achievements and future programs alike, and poses a danger to people and communities that depend on the lifesaving support the organization helps facilitate.

但是，尽管联合国艾滋病规划署权限广泛，功能齐全，但它缺少足够的资源，这威胁到以往的成就和未来项目，并给依赖该组织帮助提供便利的救命支持的人民和国家带来风险。


Sweden and UNAIDS will work together to ensure that the international AIDS response continues to transform – and save – lives.

瑞典和联合国艾滋病规划署将携手致力于确保国际艾滋病应对措施能够继续改变 — — 并拯救 — — 生命。


We will safeguard and empower women and girls, and make sure that vulnerable populations’ voices are heard.

我们将保护和赋权给妇女和女孩，确保脆弱人口的声音得到聆听。


But, at the same time, the international community must strengthen the existing framework for managing global-health issues.

但是，与此同时，国际社会必须强化管理全球卫生问题的现有框架。


As Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in Montreal in September: “Today we are focusing on the Global Fund, but tomorrow let’s not forget to provide sufficient funding for the entire global health architecture.”

瑞典首相洛夫文9月在蒙特利尔表示 ， “ 今天我们关注全球基金，但愿我们明天不要忘记为整个全球卫生安排提供充足的资金。


It is time for the international community to meet that challenge, by pledging to support our global health infrastructure, so that no agency – and no country or person – is left out.

”国际社会应该直面这一挑战，承诺支持我们全球卫生基础设施，所有机构 — — 以及所有国家和个人 — — 都要参与进来。


AIDS, NCDs, and the ABCs of Organizing

艾滋病、非传染性疾病和组织学的“ABC”


GENEVA – Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), like heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic lung disease, are responsible for 70% of all deaths.

日内瓦—非传染性疾病（NCD ） ， 如心脏病、中风、癌症、糖尿病和慢性肺病等，造成了全部死亡案例的70 % 。


There is incontrovertible evidence that tobacco use, inactivity, unhealthy diets, and excessive alcohol consumption increase the odds of dying prematurely from an NCD.

无可反驳的证据证明，吸烟、不运动、不健康饮食和饮酒过度会增加因NCD而过早死亡的风险。


And yet, despite widespread knowledge of the risks, global obesity goes largely unchecked, while tobacco and alcohol use continue to rise.

但尽管这些风险早已众所周知，全球肥胖率仍居高不下，而烟草和酒精消费量在不断增加。


It is against this backdrop that networks of NCD alliances met December 9-11 at the second Global NCD Alliance Forum, in the United Arab Emirates.

在这一背景下，NCD联盟网络于12月9—11日在阿联酋召开了第二届全球非传染性疾病联盟论坛。


As they search for solutions to bring NCDs under control, they should look for inspiration to the movement to fight AIDS.

在我们寻找控制NCD的方法的过程中，应该着眼于消灭艾滋病运动的经验。


People living with and affected by HIV continue to drive response efforts, and their unique form of mobilization has been instrumental to progress.

携带艾滋病毒并受其影响的人不断地推动着响应措施，而他们独特的动员形式也有助于进步。


While the battle is not over, AIDS activists know that it can be won.

尽管革命尚未成功，但艾滋病活跃分子知道胜利一定属于他们。


Similarly, a mobilized NCD movement can turn the tide against that epidemic.

类似地，动员起来的NCD运动能够改变潮流。


Yet, in 2015, Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet, described the NCD community as needing an “electric shock to its semi-comatose soul.”

但是 ， 《 柳叶刀》杂志编辑理查德·霍顿（Richard Horton）在2015年将说NCD界需要“给你他们的半昏迷的灵魂来一次电击。


He added: “But who has the courage to deliver it?”

”他还说 ， “ 但谁有兴趣来担当电击者？ ”


We believe there are lessons to be learned from AIDS activists.

我们相信，艾滋病活动家的很多经验可以借鉴。


As global attention focuses on NCD prevention, those seeking to control preventable illnesses should look to the “ABCs” of AIDS organizing for guidance.

随着NCD的防治获得全球关注，寻求控制可预防疾病的人应该借鉴艾滋病组织的“ABC ” 。


The first letter that the NCD community should consider is “A,” for activism.

NCD界需要考虑的第一点是A，即活动（activism ） 。


Anyone over 40 will recall images of AIDS activists performing “die-ins” at scientific meetings around the world.

40岁以上的人都能想起艾滋病活跃分子在全球科学会议上的“装死示威 ” 。


In the United States, AIDS activists took to the streets, even shutting down the Food and Drug Administration’s headquarters for a day in October 1988.

在美国，艾滋病活跃分子走上街头，甚至在1988年10月的某日令食品和药品监督局总部关门 。


Globally, activists lobbied governments and pharmaceutical companies to make medicines more affordable.

全球而言，活跃分子游说政府和制药公司降低药品价格。


This activism continues, and should serve as a model for action on NCDs.

这些活动还在继续，并理应成为NCD活动的榜样。


Next, the NCD community must adopt a bolder approach to budgets – the “B” of the AIDS movement’s strategy.

其次，NCD界必须果断推进制定预算（budget ） ， 即艾滋病运动战略中的B。


Civic organizing and grassroots activism may fuel early energies, but organizing and sustaining a broad-based coalition takes money.

公民组织和草根活动或许能够注入早期能量，但组织和维持广大联盟需要资金。


The AIDS movement was clear about this from the beginning, and lobbied for resources to support its advocacy and accountability effectively.

艾滋病运动从一开始就非常明确这一点，并有效地游说资源以支持其主张和责任。


“C” is for coalitions: the AIDS movement was quick to understand that progress would come only with diverse support.

C则是联盟（coalition ） ： 艾滋病运动很快就认识到，只有获得了多样化的支持，才能取得进步。


Activists established links between people living with HIV and those with other concerns, such as women’s rights, intellectual property, nutrition, and housing.

活跃分子建立起艾滋病携带者和其他问题关注者（如女权、知识产权、营养和住房等）之间的联系。


Issue-specific coalitions and campaigns work best when they bring together government insiders and outsiders, to combine perspectives and expertise.

不同问题的联盟和运动，如果能够将政府内部人士和外部人士联合起来，形成观点和专业知识的合力，则能够起到最大的效果。


The AIDS movement also understood that a holistic response to the epidemic was essential.

艾滋病运动还认识到，要让支持得到推广，对于这种传染病必须采取整体响应措施。


Thus, “D,” the underlying determinants of health, was to draw attention to the interconnectivity of the drivers of challenge.

因此，D — — 成功的决定因素（determinant ） — —是要吸引对挑战的联动性的关注。


For example, lobbying education leaders to keep girls in school longer has contributed to providing young people with the knowledge and agency to make smart decisions about when and with whom to negotiate safe sex.

比如，游说教育领袖让女孩读更长时间的书，从而帮助年轻人们获得知识以做出关于何时和和谁谈论安全性行为的明智的决定。


Similarly, links were forged between groups working on poverty, gender, and nutrition – factors that played a role in driving the AIDS crisis.

类似地，致力于贫困、性别和营养问题 — — 这些都是助推艾滋病危机的因素 — — 的相关组织之间也形成了联系。


NCDs are no less isolated in their causality, and similarly require a multi-sector approach to prevention.

NCD的致病原因不是孤立的，同样也要求多管齐下的预防之道。


Engagement – “E” – was what helped the AIDS movement become so influential.

参与（engagement ） — —E — — 给了艾滋病运动巨大的影响力。


By borrowing from the playbook of the disability rights movement, which championed the mantra “Nothing About Us Without Us,” AIDS advocates demanded representation on the bodies established to address the disease.

艾滋病运动支持者借鉴了残疾人权利运动的策略，打出了“我们的事，我们都得参与”的口号，要求在解决疾病问题的机构中拥有自己的代表。


For example, UNAIDS remains the only United Nations agency with seats on its board for representatives from civil society.

比如，联合国艾滋病规划署仍然是唯一一个理事会中有来自公民社会代表的联合国机构。


This norm is so powerfully embedded in the AIDS movement that it would be almost unthinkable for an AIDS meeting to take place without representation from the community.

这一范式被强力嵌入在艾滋病运动中，没有艾滋病携带者代表参与的艾滋病会议几乎是不可想象的。


Disease prevention movements must also develop persuasive narratives, and “F” – framing the issue – was essential to the AIDS community’s effort to gain support from political leaders.

疾病预防运动还必须发展出有说服力的叙事，而F — — 界定（frame）问题 — — 是艾滋病界赢得政治领导人支持的关键。


In particular, access to AIDS treatment was framed as a matter of economic justice.

特别是，获得艾滋病治疗被界定为一个经济正义的问题。


Framing the narrative this way led to a dramatic reduction in the price of medicines, so much so that more than half of people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries are in treatment.

如此界定叙事令药品价格大幅下降，让一大半中低收入国家的艾滋病携带者能够获得治疗。


An equally important framing issue for AIDS, which is highly relevant to the NCDs movement, is that of responsibility.

一个对艾滋病 — — 对NCD运动也是如此 — — 同样重要的界定问题是责任。


The AIDS community worked hard to shift the focus from blaming individuals’ lifestyle choices to putting the onus on the state for providing health care and removing legal discrimination.

艾滋病界努力让人们的关注焦点从谴责个人生活方式选择转移到要求国家担负提供医疗和消除法律歧视上。


In the AIDS debate, gender – our movement’s “G” – was a significant focal point.

在艾滋病争论中，性别（gender ） — —即我们的运动中的G — — 是一个重要焦点。


HIV was initially seen as a “gay disease,” and gender identity was embedded in the DNA of the AIDS movement early on.

艾滋病一开始被视为“同性恋病 ” ， 而性别身份从一开始就烙印在了艾滋病运动的DNA中。


Gender dimensions of NCDs are no less important; one only has to consider how alcohol and tobacco are marketed to understand that.

NCD的性别问题也同样重要；只要想想酒精和烟草的营销手段便可了解这一点。


Gender, therefore, must become a focus of NCDs prevention efforts.

因此，性别应该成为NCD预防的重点。


Finally, “H” – human rights – was the bedrock of the AIDS response.

最后，H — — 人权（human right ） — —是艾滋病响应机制的基石。


Campaigns were launched against discrimination in workplaces, schools, and health centers.

艾滋病活跃分子发动了反对职场、校园和医院的歧视的运动。


Strategic litigation helped ensure equality under the law.

策略性诉讼帮助确保了法律面前人人平等。


The AIDS movement refused to hold major conferences in countries with punitive laws against people living with HIV.

艾滋病运动拒绝在对携带艾滋病毒的人实施惩罚性法律的国家召开大会。


The NCD movement could take a similar tack by, for example, refusing to meet in countries that fail to restrict advertising of junk food to children.

NCD运动也应该采取同样的策略，比如拒绝在不限制面向儿童的垃圾食品广告的国家召开大会。


The list of AIDS lessons could continue throughout the alphabet, but ending with “H” is apt, given that human rights drove the response, and should drive the response to NCDs.

艾滋病运动的教训可以写全整个字母表，但在H结尾比较合适，因为人权推动了艾滋病响应机制，也应该推动NCD响应机制。


Poverty, exclusion, and social and economic marginalization put people at higher risk for HIV.

贫困、排斥以及社会和经济边缘化让人们更容易感染艾滋病毒。


It is no different for NCDs.

NCD也是如此。


The early mainstream reaction to the AIDS epidemic was to ask, “Why don’t those people make better choices?”

人们对艾滋病的早期主流反应是问“为什么那些人没有做出更好的选择？


The AIDS movement made clear that that was the wrong question.

”艾滋病运动证明了这是一个错误的问题。


Today, with 70% of the planet at risk of premature death from preventable illnesses, “those people” are many of us.

今天，70%的地球人面临因为可预防疾病而过早死亡的风险 ， “ 那些人”就是我们自己。


The NCD and AIDS communities can learn from one another.

NCD和艾滋病界可以互相学习。


We are a stronger movement when we join forces.

当我们加入这股力量之中，就形成了一个更加强大的运动。


The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of UNAIDS.

本文不代表联合国艾滋病规划署观点。


Aid Works

援助是有用的


NEW YORK – The critics of foreign aid are wrong.

纽约—对外部援助的批评是错误的。


A growing flood of data shows that death rates in many poor countries are falling sharply, and that aid-supported programs for health-care delivery have played a key role.

越来越多的数据表明，很多国家贫困人口的死亡率在迅速下降，卫生援助项目居功至伟。


Aid works; it saves lives.

援助是有用的，它能够拯救生命。


One of the newest studies, by Gabriel Demombynes and Sofia Trommlerova, shows that Kenya’s infant mortality (deaths under the age of one year) has plummeted in recent years, and attributes a significant part of the gain to the massive uptake of anti-malaria bed nets.

德莫姆比尼斯（Gabriel Demombynes）和特罗穆勒洛瓦（Sofia Trommlerova）的最新研究表明，近几年来，肯尼亚婴儿（1岁以下）死亡率显著下降，其中很大一部分原因在于防疟疾床帐的大规模使用。


These findings are consistent with an important study of malaria death rates by Chris Murray and others, which similarly found a significant and rapid decline in malaria-caused deaths after 2004 in sub-Saharan Africa resulting from aid-supported malaria-control measures.

这一发现与穆雷（Chris Murray）关于疟疾死亡率的重要研究是是一致的，穆雷发现，2004年以后，非洲撒哈拉以南地区的疟疾致死率出现了显著而快速的下降，其原因在于外部援助所支持的疟疾控制措施。


Let’s turn back the clock a dozen years.

让我们从12年前开始。


In 2000, Africa was struggling with three major epidemics.

2000年，非洲饱受三大传染病的肆虐。


AIDS was killing more than two million people each year, and spreading rapidly.

艾滋病每年夺走200万以上生命，并在快速蔓延。


Malaria was surging, owing to the parasite’s growing resistance to the standard medicine at the time.

由于寄生虫对传统药物的抗药性越来越强，疟疾出现了大爆发。


Tuberculosis was also soaring, partly as a result of the AIDS epidemic and partly because of the emergence of drug-resistant TB.

结核病也在肆虐，一部分是由于艾滋病所致，一部分是因为具有抗药性的结核病的出现。


In addition, hundreds of thousands of women were dying in childbirth each year, because they had no access to safe deliveries in a clinic or hospital, or to emergency help when needed.

此外，每年有数十万妇女在分娩时丧命，因为她们无法在安全的诊所和医院中生产，也得不到所需的紧急救援。


These interconnected crises prompted action.

这些危机刺激了行动。


The United Nations’ member states adopted the Millennium Development Goals in September 2000.

联合国各成员国在2000年9月通过了千年发展目标（MDG ） 。


Three of the eight MDGs – reductions in children’s deaths, maternal deaths, and epidemic diseases – focus directly on health.

在MDG的八大目标中，有三个直接关注卫生状况，即减少儿童夭折、难产致死和传染病致死。


Likewise, the World Health Organization issued a major call to scale up development assistance for health.

类似地，世界卫生组织也大力呼吁加大卫生发展援助力度。


And African leaders, led by Nigeria’s president at the time, Olusegun Obasanjo, took on the challenge of battling the continent’s epidemics.

以时任尼日利亚总统奥巴桑乔为首的非洲领导人接受了与非洲大陆传染病作战的重任。


Nigeria hosted two landmark summits, on malaria in 2000 and on AIDS in 2001, which were a crucial spur to action.

尼日利亚举办了两次标志性峰会，即2000年的疟疾峰会和2001年的艾滋病峰会，这两次峰会在促进采取行动方面居功至伟。


At the second of these summits, then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called for the creation of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria.

在第二个峰会中，时任联合国秘书长安南呼吁建立全球抵抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金（Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria ） 。


The Global Fund began operations in 2002, financing prevention, treatment, and care programs for the three diseases.

该全球基金于2002年开始运作，为这三种疾病的预防、治疗和看护提供融资。


High-income countries also finally agreed to reduce the debt owed by heavily indebted poor countries, allowing them to spend more on health care and less on crippling payments to creditors.

高收入国家也最终形成协议，同意免去重债穷国的债务，减轻它们的还债负担，将更多的钱用于卫生项目。


The United States also took action, adopting two major programs, one to fight AIDS and the other to fight malaria.

美国也采取了行动，出台了两大项目，一个针对艾滋病，另一个针对疟疾。


In 2005, the UN Millennium Project recommended specific ways to scale up primary health care in the poorest countries, with the high-income countries helping to cover the costs that the poorest could not pay by themselves.

2005年，联合国千年项目给出了如何增进最穷国家初级卫生保障的具体办法，其中高收入国家应该帮助最穷国家承担后者无法独力承担的成本。


The UN General Assembly backed many of the project’s recommendations, which were then implemented in numerous low-income countries.

联合国大会通过了该项目的多项建议，并开始在多个低收入国家实施。


Donor aid did start to rise sharply as a result of all of these efforts.

在这些努力的推动下，捐赠援助的确出现了蓬勃发展。


In 1995, total aid for health care was around $7.9 billion.

1995年，卫生援助总额约为79亿美元。


This inadequate level then crept up slowly, to $10.5 billion by 2000.

这一远远不够的援助水平缓慢地增加着，2000年上升到了105亿美元。


By 2005, however, annual aid for health had jumped another $5.9 billion, and by 2010, the total had grown by another $10.5 billion, to reach $26.9 billion for the year.

但是，到了2005年，年度卫生援助大涨59亿美元，而到了2010年，援助总额在增加105亿美元，达到了269亿美元。


The expanded funding allowed major campaigns against AIDS, TB, and malaria; a major scaling up of safe childbirth; and increased vaccine coverage, including the near-eradication of polio.

资金的充裕使得抵抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾的项目得以启动、安全分娩得到了大普及，也增加了疫苗的覆盖面，小儿麻痹症基本上被消灭了。


Many innovative public-health techniques were developed and adopted.

许多创新性卫生技术被开发出来并得到了使用。


With one billion people living in high-income countries, total aid in 2010 amounted to around $27 per person in the donor countries – a modest sum for them, but a life-saving one for the world’s poorest people.

约10亿人口生活在高收入国家中，2010年的援助总额意味着他们人均贡献了27美元 — — 对他们来说算不了什么，但对最贫困人口来说足以救命。


The public-health successes can now be seen on many fronts.

如今，公共卫生领域的诸多方面都可以看到进步。


Around 12 million children under five years old died in 1990.

1990年，有1200万不到5岁的儿童夭折。


By 2010, this number had declined to around 7.6 million – still far too high, but definitely an historic improvement.

到了2010年，该数字下降至760万左右 — — 依然很高，但毫无疑问是历史性的进步。


Malaria deaths in children in Africa were cut from a peak of around one million in 2004 to around 700,000 by 2010, and, worldwide, deaths of pregnant women declined by almost half between 1990 and 2010, from an estimated 543,000 to 287,000.

非洲疟疾儿童致死数量也从2004年的最高峰（���100万）下降至2010年的约70万，而全球孕妇死亡数量在1990—2010年间下降了几乎一半，从543 000降至287 000（估计值 ） 。


Another $10-15 billion in annual aid (that is, roughly $10-15 more per person in the high-income world), bringing total aid to around $40 billion per year, would enable still greater progress to be made in the coming years.

如果年度卫生援助能增加100—150亿美元（即高收入国家居民每人再拿出10—15美元 ） ， 达到每年400亿美元，那么未来几年还能取得更大进步。


The MDGs for health could be achieved even in many of the world’s poorest countries.

卫生相关MDG即使在世界最贫困国家也能够实现。


Unfortunately, at every step during the past decade – and still today – a chorus of aid skeptics has argued against the needed help.

不幸的是，在过去十年所采取的每一个步骤中（现在也不例外 ） ， 总有一群援助怀疑者对必要的援助指手画脚。


They have repeatedly claimed that aid does not work; that the funds will simply be wasted; that anti-malaria bed nets cannot be given to the poor, since the poor won’t use them; that the poor will not take anti-AIDS medicines properly; and so on and so forth.

他们一再声称援助根本没什么效果；援助资金都打了水漂；抗疟疾床帐不能给穷人使用，因为他们根本不会去用；穷人不会正确服用抗艾滋药物；如此等等。


Their attacks have been relentless (I’ve faced my share).

他们的攻击是冷血的（包括对我的攻击 ） 。


The opponents of aid are not merely wrong.

援助的反对者不仅仅是错误的。


Their vocal antagonism still threatens the funding that is needed to get the job done, to cut child and maternal deaths by enough to meet the MDGs by 2015 in the poorest countries, and to continue after that to ensure that all people everywhere finally have access to basic health services.

他们异口同声的反对仍在威胁取得成就所必须的融资 — — 减少婴幼儿死亡从而让最贫困国家在2015年完成MDG以及此后再接再厉确保所有国家所有人民都能获得基本卫生服务都需要资金。


A decade of significant progress in health outcomes has proved the skeptics wrong.

十年来卫生成果的巨大进步已经证明，怀疑者是错的。


Aid for health care works – and works magnificently – to save and improve lives.

卫生援助在拯救生命、改善生活方面是有用的，而且很有用。


Let us continue to support these life-saving programs, which uphold the dignity and well-being of all people on the planet.

让我们继续支持这些生命挽救计划，提升所有地球人的尊严和福利。


The AIIB and Global Governance

亚投行和全球治理


HONG KONG – Despite official American and Japanese opposition, 57 countries have opted to be among the founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

香港—尽管有美国和日本官方的反对，57个国家选择了成为中国发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）创始成员。


Regardless of what naysayers believe, this remarkable turn of events can only benefit global economic governance.

不管对此持怀疑态度者的观点如何，这一令人瞩目的变局有利于改善全球经济治理。


According to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, the AIIB’s establishment “may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.”

美国财政前部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）指出，亚投行的成立“也许将以美国失去其全球经济体系担保人地位的时刻被人铭记。


Asia Development Bank (ADB) President Takehiko Nakao, by contrast, does not believe that there will be a “major change to the world of development finance,” though he conceded that “there can be interpretations as to the symbolic meaning of this.”

”相反，亚洲开发银行（亚开行）行长中尾武彦（Takehiko Nakao）则认为亚投行的成立不会导致 “发展金融的重大变化 ， ” 尽管他也承认“对于它的象征意义，可能存在各种解读。 ”


Who is right will depend largely on the decisions that the AIIB’s top shareholders make regarding its operating structure.

谁对谁错在很大程度上取决于亚投行大股东对其运营结构所做的决定。


So far, the AIIB has not sought to amend the principle that the largest contributor to a multilateral organization gets the largest say in running it.

目前，亚投行并没有试图改变一条国际组织通行原则，即多边组织的最大贡献者获得最大的运营话语权。


Just as the US dominates the World Bank and Europe leads the International Monetary Fund, China will head the AIIB.

正如美国主导世界银行、欧洲领导国际货币基金组织（IMF）一样，中国也将主导亚投行。


This implies a larger global leadership role for China – which the world, including its traditional powers, should welcome.

这意味着中国会承担更多的全球领导作用。 全世界，包括其中的传统力量，应该欢迎这一变化。


After all, global leadership is not just a matter of might; it also reflects the provision of global public goods.

毕竟，领导全球并不仅仅是实力问题，它也包括了为全球提供公共品服务。


When World War II ended, the US, aside from being the world’s leading military and economic power, was the largest provider of such goods, through the Marshall Plan, support for the United Nations, and contributions to the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).

二战结束时，美国不但是世界上最强大的军事和经济力量，也是全球公共品服务的最大供应者，美国实施了援助欧洲重建的马歇尔计划，支持了联合国，并为布雷顿森林机构（IMF和世界银行）贡献其力量。


But massive debts have lately undermined the ability of the US – not to mention Europe and Japan – to continue making such large contributions.

但如今，巨大的债务制约了美国 — — 更不用说制约了欧洲和日本 — — 继续做出如此巨大的贡献的能力。


Fortunately, China is willing and able to fill the gap.

幸运的是，中国愿意也有能力填补这个空白。


In fact, China might have done so within the Bretton Woods institutions, were the distribution of voting rights within them not skewed so heavily toward the incumbents, who still enjoy veto power.

事实上，中国本可以在布雷顿森林机构内填补这一空白，但这些机构内部的投票权太过倾向于目前当权的发达国家，它们仍享有否决权。


For example, China has a 3.8% voting share in the IMF and World Bank, even though it accounts for more than 12% of world GDP.

比如，中国在IMF和世界银行中的投票权比例只有3.8 % ， 尽管其占全球GDP比例已高达12%以上。


The United Kingdom and France – which are one-third the size of China – each have a 4.3% share.

英国和法国 — — 经济规模只有中国的三分之一却都拥有4.2%的投票权。


With the incumbents unwilling to bring China’s voting share in line with its economic might, China had little choice but to launch its own institution.

目前的发达国家当权者不愿意给予中国与其经济实力相称的投票权，中国别无选择，只能成立自己的机构。


But the AIIB has its own objectives, which do not align precisely with those of, say, the World Bank.

但亚投行有其自身的、与世界银行等不完全一致的目标。


Specifically, the bank is a critical element of China’s “one belt, one road” strategy, which encompasses two initiatives: the overland Silk Road Economic Belt, connecting China to Europe, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, linking China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

具体而言，亚投行是中国通过“一带一路”战略促进周边国家经济发展的关键要素之一。 “一带一路”战略包括两大工程：连接中国和欧洲的陆上丝绸之路经济带，以及连接中国和东南亚、中东和欧洲的21世纪海上丝绸之路。


While the US “pivots” to the east, China is pirouetting west, applying the lessons of its development to its trading partners across Eurasia and beyond.

在美国向东“转”的同时，中国正在向西迈进，将它的发展经验传播给欧亚地区及之外的贸易伙伴。


Perhaps the most important of these lessons is that connectivity is vital to economic growth.

也许这些经验中最重要的便是连通性（connectivity）对经济增长的关键作用。


Over the last three decades, the construction of roads, railways, ports, airports, and telecommunications systems in China has fostered trade, attracted investment, and, by linking the country’s land-locked western and southern provinces to its more prosperous coastal areas, helped to reduce regional disparities.

在过去三十年中，中国的公路、铁路、机场和通讯系统建设刺激了贸易，吸引了投资，并通过将中国内陆西部和南部省份与更繁荣的东部沿海城市连接起来降低了地区差异。


China’s Silk Road initiative, which aims to boost prosperity among China’s trading partners largely through infrastructure investment, is a logical next step – one on which China is spending significantly.

中国的丝绸之路工程旨在主要通过基础设施投资刺激中国贸易伙伴的繁荣，这是中国发展顺理成章的下一步。 中国正在这方面投入巨资。


In addition to its initial contribution of up to $50 billion to the AIIB, China has committed $40 billion to its Silk Road Fund, $32 billion to the China Development Bank, and $30 billion to the Export-Import Bank of China.

除了给亚投行的500亿美元初始投资，中国还向其丝绸之路基金新注资400亿美元，向国家开发银行新注资320亿美元，向国家进出口银行新注资300亿美元。


According to estimates by HSBC, the “one belt, one road” initiative could end up costing as much as $232 billion – just under two-thirds of the World Bank’s balance sheet in 2014.

根据汇丰银行的估算 ， “ 一带一路”工程最终可能耗资2,320亿美元 — — 几乎相当于2014年世界银行资产负债表规模的三分之二。


The $100 billion AIIB will play a central role in this effort.

资本金预计达到1,000亿美元的亚投行将在其中扮演核心角色。


Given massive global demand for infrastructure finance – which, according to ADB estimates, will amount to $8 trillion in Asia alone over the next decade – the AIIB should not be considered a threat to the World Bank, the ADB, or other multilateral lenders.

根据亚开行的估算，全球基础设施融资需求旺盛，光是未来十年的亚洲就需要8万亿美元。 因此亚投行不应该被视为世界银行、亚开行和其他多边贷款机构的威胁。


Nonetheless, it will compete with them, owing to its distinctive – and probably more efficient – approach to lending.

尽管如���，亚投行将与其他机构展开竞争，因为它的贷款方针不同，也许效率更高。


In fact, the AIIB’s operations will most likely resemble those of the World Bank in the 1960s, when engineers with hands-on development experience dominated the staff and could design lending conditions that worked for borrowers.

事实上，亚投行的经营将更加类似于20世纪60年代的世界银行，由拥有实地发展经验的工程师主导工作团队，可以为借款人设计合适的贷款条件。


In the late 1980s, the World Bank began to implement the Washington Consensus, pushing for economic and political liberalization, without sufficient regard for local political or economic realities.

20世纪80年代末，世界银行开始实施华盛顿共识，追求经济和政治自由化而不再充分考虑地方政治或经济现实。


The result was conditional lending, with terms – created mostly by policy wonks – that many developing-country borrowers could not meet (at least not without hiring consultants to adjust their official reporting).

结果是有条件贷款盛行，而其贷款条件往往由学院派政策专家制定，导致许多发展中国家借款人如果不雇用国际组织顾问调整其官方报告，根本无法满足其规定的贷款条件。


The acid test of the AIIB’s effectiveness will be its governance model.

亚投行成效的严峻考验将是其治理模式。


One failing of the Bretton Wood institutions is their full-time shareholder boards of directors, which tend to undermine effectiveness by micro-managing and often requesting conflicting lending conditions.

布雷顿森林机构的失败之一是它有一个全职股东董事会来代表出资国意愿，该董事会总是因为过度微观管理而破坏项目的效果，并且常常要求互相矛盾的贷款条件。


The World Bank has wasted far too much time re-organizing itself under various presidents, without recognizing the fundamental problem with its own governance structure.

世界银行浪费了太多时间不断由新任行长展开对自身的行政重组，而没有认识到其治理结构的根本性问题。


Even if the AIIB does not deliver as promised, its establishment is an important reminder that in a fast-changing world, economic governance cannot remain stagnant.

即使亚投行没有给出其承诺的结果，其成立也可以作为一个重要的提醒，让我们知道，在快速变化的世界中，经济治理不能停滞不前。


If Western leaders really do believe in innovation, competition, and meritocracy, they should welcome the AIIB.

如果西方领导人真的相信创新、竞争和英才治国，他们就应该欢迎亚投行。


AIPAC in Decline

美以公共事务委员会的衰落


MADRID – The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s lobbying power in the United States is undeniable.

马德里 — — 在美国，美以公共事务委员会的游说力量不可否认。


But AIPAC’s supposed ability to control US policy decisions is a Potemkin village myth, cultivated by friends and rivals alike.

但该委员会对美国决策所谓的控制力其实不过是盟友和对手共同制造的虚假神话。


In fact, thanks to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, AIPAC’s influence is under threat – though Netanyahu himself will be just fine.

事实上，虽然以色列总理内塔尼亚胡本人毫发无损，但他的所作所为却对委员会的影响力构成了威胁。


Claims about AIPAC’s clout have long shaped analysis of US foreign policy.

美以公共事务委员会影响力之说一直对美国外交政策分析产生影响。


For example, Steve Walt and John Mearsheimer, in their notorious essay “The Israel Lobby,” asserted that AIPAC manufactured the Iraq War.

比方说，沃尔特·史蒂夫和约翰·米尔斯海默在其臭名昭著的论文“以色列游说势力”中断言该委员会是伊拉克战争的始作俑者。


But the reality is far less sinister: in that case, AIPAC merely surfed on the pro-invasion wave unleashed by President George W. Bush, with his Messianic urges, and Vice President Dick Cheney, a one-man war lobby.

但现实却远没有那么险恶：在伊拉克战争中，美以委员会仅仅是利用了乔治·W·布什总统扮演救世主的冲动和切尼副总统单枪匹马的战争游说所掀起的侵略狂潮。


The truth about AIPAC – that it is influential, but far from invulnerable – has recently been revealed, both to the public and to the group itself.

最近发生的事情令公众和委员会自身看清了其影响力不凡但远非无懈可击的本来面目。


Having been pushed by Netanyahu into an unwinnable fight against US President Barack Obama’s administration over its nuclear deal with Iran, AIPAC is now crumbling under the weight of its own hubris.

因为被内塔尼亚胡推入到一场反对奥巴马政府与伊朗达成核协议的不可能打赢的战争，美以公共事务委员会现在在狂妄自大的重压下摇摇欲坠。


In fact, AIPAC has never overcome resolute opposition from an American president, particularly in a matter of US national security.

事实上，尤其当事关国家安全时，美以委员会从未战胜过美国总统的坚决反对。


It failed to stop Jimmy Carter from selling F-15 Eagle fighters to Saudi Arabia in 1978, or to prevent Ronald Reagan from supplying AWACS reconnaissance planes to the Saudis three years later.

它未能阻止卡特1978年向沙特出售F-15鹰式战斗机，也未能阻止三年后里根将预警侦察机出售给沙特。


And its 1991 battle with President George H.W. Bush over the linkage of US loan guarantees for Israel with Prime Minister Yitzak Shamir’s support of the 1991 Madrid peace conference – one of Bush’s key legacies – ended in defeat.

1991年委员会与乔治·H·W·布什总统就美国以提供贷款担保换取沙米尔总理对1991年马德里和会的支持之争（也是布什最关键的政策之一）同样也以失败而告终。


Against this background, AIPAC should have known that its attempt, in close cooperation with Obama’s Republican opponents, to block the Iran nuclear deal (one of Obama’s most important achievements) would fail.

在此背景下，委员会应该知道它企图联手奥巴马的共和党反对者阻止达成伊朗核协议（奥巴马最重要的成就之一）将不会成功。


Indeed, Obama even used a tactic similar to that of George H.W. Bush to win the day.

事实上，奥巴马甚至采用了与乔治·H·W·布什同样的致胜战术。


Just as Bush openly denounced the “thousand lobbyists” working the halls of the US Congress against a vital national interest, Obama said in a conference call that his critics “would be opposed to any deal with Iran,” and called out AIPAC’s $20 million advertising campaign against the agreement.

就像布什公开谴责“上千名说客”涌入美国国会大厅反对重要的国家利益一样，奥巴马在一次电话会议上说他的反对者“反对与伊朗达成任何协议 ” ， 并点名美以委员会投入2，000万美元宣传资金反对协议的达成。


He also put AIPAC in the same category as the Republicans who “were responsible” for leading the US into the Iraq war.

他还将委员会和共和党人划归一类，指责其应对将美国拖入伊拉克战争负责。


For AIPAC – which has traditionally relied on a broad coalition of social and political forces in the US that view Israel’s security as both a moral cause and a vital national interest – this is not any old defeat.

对一直依靠将以色列安全视为既符合道德又合乎重要国家利益的一系列社会和政治势力的美以公共事务委员会而言，这绝非是一次普通的挫折。


The Republican-backed crusade against a key agreement negotiated by a Democratic president, with his party’s overwhelming support, has threatened the bipartisan foundations of Israel’s cause in America.

由共和党支持的对民主党总统在本党全力支持下所谈关键协议的讨伐已经对以色列美国事业的两党基础构成了威胁。


Of course, the nuclear deal involved more than just the US and Iran.

当然，核协议所涉及的不仅是美国和伊朗。


AIPAC was opposing an international agreement that six major world powers – China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US – had already signed and that the United Nations had approved.

委员会反对的是中、法、德、俄、英、美等世界六大强国已经签署且联合国已经批准的国际协议。


Even some of Israel’s staunchest supporters in Congress were unlikely to deal a potentially devastating blow to America’s international credibility, and the idea that the negotiating countries would all agree to reopen the talks to produce a “better deal” was sheer fantasy.

即使国会中某些以色列最坚定的支持者也不太可能对美国的国际信誉发起毁灭性的打击，认为谈判国家会一致同意重开会谈达成“更好协议”的想法纯属幻觉。


Yet that is the objective that Netanyahu set for AIPAC.

但这就是内塔尼亚胡为委员会设定的目标。


The row over the Iran deal is bound to be a watershed moment for American Jews, among whom sharp divisions have formed.

伊朗协议所引发的分歧注定会成为分裂美国犹太群体的标志性时刻。


Indeed, the American Jewish Committee 2015 Survey of American Jewish Opinion reports the emergence of “two diverging Jewish sub-communities,” with a growing number of Jews feeling alienated by the organizations that claim to represent them.

事实上，美国2015年针对美国犹太人意见的统计调查显示形成了“两个有显著分歧的犹太子群体 ” ， 进而导致越来越多的犹太人感到无法融入声称代表他们利益的组织。


AIPAC represents a striking anomaly in the life of American Jews.

委员会代表美国犹太人生活中突出的反常现象。


It is increasingly identified with the Republican agenda and Israel’s evangelical Christian supporters, even though polls have repeatedly shown that Jews are America’s most liberal ethnic group.

尽管民意调查一再显示犹太人是美国最自由的族群，但委员会却越来越贴近共和党议程和以色列福音派基督教支持者。


The truth is that American Jews largely opposed the Iraq war.

事实是美国犹太人大多反对伊拉克战争。


They overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party.

他们压倒性地投票支持民主党。


They define their religion as moderate and liberal, with many upholding gay rights and abortion, both anathema to evangelical Christians.

他们将自身宗教定位为温和自由，不少人崇尚同性恋权利和人工流产，这两者在福音派基督教看来都是一种诅咒。


The majority of American Jews even support the creation of a Palestinian state.

大多数美国犹太人甚至支持建立一个巴勒斯坦国。


And, although they are far from united on the Iran deal, the agreement’s supporters outnumber its opponents.

而且虽然他们对伊朗协议的看法远谈不上一致，但支持协议的人明显多于反对者。


Much of the blame for the damage that has been done – to AIPAC, American Jewish communities, and even the US political process – falls on Netanyahu.

内塔尼亚胡应该对委员会、美国犹太群体甚至美国政治进程所遭受的损失负责。


But he is unlikely to face retribution for any of it.

但他不太可能遭到任何报复。


On the contrary, the Obama administration has already begun the discussions it promised on upgrading Israel’s strategic capabilities.

相反，奥巴马政府已经开始探讨履行其提升以色列战略实力的承诺。


As Arab countries throughout the Middle East melt down – with increasingly significant spillover effects in the West – Israel continues to represent a stable regional partner for the US.

在中东阿拉伯国家相继崩溃对西方影响越来越显著的情况下 — — 以色列将继续扮演美国稳定合伙人的角色。


More dangerous, Netanyahu could achieve his next goal: preventing a strategic détente between the US and Iran that would enable cooperation in resolving major regional conflicts, from Yemen to Syria.

更危险的是，内塔尼亚胡可能会实现他的下一个目标：阻止美国和伊朗缓和战略关系 及解决从也门到叙利亚的主要地区冲突。


After all, Obama’s victory on the nuclear deal may have been inevitable, but it was far from easy.

毕竟，奥巴马在核协议问题上的胜利或许不可避免，但却绝非垂手可得。


An odd coalition of Iranian radicals, AIPAC, the Saudi-led Sunni alliance, the Israeli government, and US politicians from both parties have already compelled Obama to promise additional sanctions on Iran for its sponsorship of terrorism.

由伊朗激进分子、美以公共事务委员会、沙特领导的逊尼派联盟、以色列政府和美国两党政客所组成的奇怪联盟已经迫使奥巴马政府承诺进一步制裁伊朗资助恐怖主义的活动。


As a result, America’s cold war with Iran is likely to persist.

结果是美国与伊朗的冷战可能无法结束。


The Dawn of Climate-Friendly Air Travel

气候友好型航空旅行的黎明


MONTREAL – As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, demand for air travel is growing, with more than 30,000 new large aircraft expected to take to the skies in the next few years.

蒙特利尔—随着世界日益互通，航空旅行需求也在增长，未来几年预计将有超过30,000架新的大飞机上天。


But if we are to sustain growth in air travel without aggravating global warming, we must quickly reduce aviation-related CO2 emissions, which are substantial and not covered by the Paris climate agreement that more than 190 countries agreed to last December.

但如果想要保持航空旅行增长又不加剧全球变暖，就必须迅速降低与航空有关的二氧化碳排放。 与航空有关二氧化碳排放量巨大，并且没有写入去年12月190多个国家达成一致的巴黎气候协定。


Fortunately, now is the perfect time to decouple aviation emissions from air-travel growth.

幸运的是，现在是让航空排放与航空旅行增长脱钩的理想时机。


Representatives from 191 countries convened in Montreal this week for the 39th Session of the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization; after decades of wrangling, they have agreed to an aviation-specific climate agreement.

本周，来自191个国家的代表齐聚蒙特利尔出席第39届联合国国际民用航空组织（ICAO）会议；在经历了几十年的争论后，他们就一项专门针对航空的气候协定达成了一致。


The new ICAO framework aims for “carbon-neutral growth” in international aviation from 2020 onward, and has as its centerpiece a global market-based measure (GMBM) to help airlines affordably cap their net emissions at 2020 levels.

这一新ICAO框架的目标是从2020年开始实现国际航程的“碳中性增长 ” ， 其核心是一项基于全球市场的措施（GMBM ） ， 帮助航空公司以可承受的成本将净排放限制在2020年���平。


When implemented, it will be the first carbon-emissions cap on a global industry that does not noticeably increase costs for consumers.

该措施实施后将是第一项不给消费者带来成本显著上升的全球行业排放上限。


And airlines will purchase emissions reductions from other economic sectors, thus funneling billions of dollars into low-carbon development around the world.

航空公司将从其他经济部门购买减排量，从而引导数十亿美元用于全球低碳发展。


For the first six years, the new framework will apply only to flights between countries that have voluntarily adopted it, which means that the ICAO will have to encourage adequate participation for the program to be effective.

在一开始的六年中，新框架将只适用于自愿接受框架的国家之间的航班，这意味着ICAO必须鼓励足够的参与度以使该计划起到效果。


This opt-in approach has some critics, but whether a program is categorized as “voluntary” or “mandatory” is beside the point, because international accords generally apply only to the sovereign countries that have decided to join them.

这一自主加入方针受到了一些批评，但计划应该被归为“自愿”还是“强制”无关紧要，因为国际协定一般只适用于决定加入其中的主权国家。


Some 64 countries have already signaled their willingness to sign on to the ICAO agreement, and together they account for nearly 80% of expected growth in CO2 emissions above 2020 levels.

有64个国家已经表示愿意在ICAO协定上签字，它们加起来占二氧化碳排放量预期增长超过2020部分的近80 % 。


That isn’t 100%, but it’s a great start, and we can expect more countries to join when they see others reaping the benefits of low-carbon development.

100%固然没有达到，但这是个良好的开端，我们期待更多的国家在看到其他国家收获低碳发展的益处后也能加入。


The airlines themselves will welcome a coherent global framework that establishes clear and predictable compliance metrics, rather than a regulatory patchwork that differs from country to country and complicates international operations.

航空公司自身也将欢迎树立明确可预测的合规标准的一致的全球框架，而不愿面对各国各自为政、让国际经营变得错综复杂的监管拼图。


To minimize compliance costs – and because environmental sustainability is now a key competitive marker for customers and investors alike – airlines will likely encourage the countries where they do business to participate in the ICAO program.

为了实现合规成本最小化 — — 并且因为环境可持续性如今是争夺客户和投资者的关键性竞争市场 — — 航空公司可能会鼓动业务所在国加入ICAO计划。


The new agreement provides an enormous opportunity to prevent the emission of 2.5 billion tons of CO2 in the first 15 years – the equivalent of taking roughly 35 million cars off the road every year the program is in force.

新协定提供了重要机会阻止第一个15年的排放量25亿吨二氧化碳 — — 相当于每年减少3,500万辆汽车。


The agreement will also spur major manufacturers such as Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, and Embraer – which are already investing in quieter, more fuel-efficient aircraft and efficiency improvements for existing models – to develop cleaner technologies that will allow them to purchase fewer emissions offsets.

协定还将刺激波音、空中客车、庞巴迪和巴西航空等主要生产商开发更清洁的技术，从而减少排放抵扣的购买量。 这些公司已经开始投资于更安静、燃料效率更高的飞机，并对现有机型进行改良。


However, the framework decided in Montreal is not complete, and crucial details need to be worked out quickly so that airlines can begin to plan how they will meet the new environmental targets.

但是，在蒙特利尔所确定的框架并不完整，必须加快制定关键细节，以使航空公司能够开始着手规划如何实现新环境目标。


Developed countries have already offered to help implement the GMBM, which, it is hoped, will pave the way for investments in emerging economies that are becoming new aviation powerhouses.

发达国家已经提出了帮助实施GMBM的方案，希望可以扫清投资于正日益成为新航空大国的新兴经济体的道路。


If the countries can leapfrog over old technologies, they can become new leaders in carbon-smart flying.

如果可以跨越旧技术，就能成为碳职能（carbon-smart）飞行的新领导者。


They should seize the opportunity before them and join the ICAO framework so that their manufacturers have a clear and predictable path forward.

它们应该抓住眼前的机会，加入ICAO框架以使其生产商得到明确可预测的前进方向。


At the Paris climate talks last year, we witnessed the power of global collective action to address climate change.

在去年的巴黎气候谈判上，我们看到了全球合作解决气候变化问题的力量。


No fewer than 187 countries – large and small, developed and developing – announced emissions-reduction targets in the months before the conference, which created the momentum to reach a landmark accord.

不少于187个国家 — — 不管大小、是否发达 — — 在会议开始前几个月宣布了减排目标，这位达成里程碑式协定创造了势头。


With the Paris climate agreement on track to enter into force in the coming months – more rapidly than anyone ever thought possible – we still have that momentum.

随着巴黎气候协定距离几个月后生效越走越近 — — 比任何人所预想的都要快 — — 我们仍保持着这一势头。


The ICAO agreement is the next wave in the international battle against climate change.

ICAO协定是对抗气候变化的国际战争的新一波浪潮。


Together, the two agreements will boost our chances of delivering environmentally sustainable economic growth.

这两个协定加起来将增加我们实现环境可持续经济增长的机会。


By cleaning up our carbon footprint now, future generations of air travelers from all countries will be able to look out their window onto a healthy planet.

通过从现在开始明确我们的碳足迹，未来航空旅行者不管来自哪个国家，都能够从舷窗看到健康的地球。


Europe’s Airpocalypse

欧洲空气启示录


SINGAPORE – European policymakers like to lecture the rest of the world on air pollution.

新加坡—欧洲决策者喜欢给世界其他地区上空气污染课。


Asia, and China in particular, is a favorite target for criticism.

亚洲，特别是中国是他们最喜欢的目标。


Indeed, it sometimes seems as if no major environmental conference is complete without a presentation by European policymakers on their continent’s supposed “best practices,” which the rest of the world should emulate.

事实上，有时候，似乎任何大型环境会议缺了欧洲决策者宣讲应该供全世界模仿的欧洲的所谓“最佳实践”都是不完整的。


When it comes to air pollution, however, Europe might consider doing less talking and more listening.

但是，在空气污染问题上，欧洲还是少说多听为妙。


Air pollution is a growing concern across Europe.

空气污染正在日益成为全欧洲关注的问题。


The World Health Organization has called it the continent’s “single largest environmental health risk,” estimating that 90% of Europe’s citizens are exposed to outdoor pollution that exceeds WHO air-quality guidelines.

世界卫生组织称它是“欧洲大陆最大的环境健康风险 ” ， 据估计90%的欧洲公民暴露在超出世卫组织空气质量指导标准的室外污染中。


In 2010, some 600,000 European citizens died prematurely because of outdoor and indoor air pollution, and the economic costs have been put at $1.6 trillion, roughly 9% of the European Union’s GDP.

2010年，大约600,000欧洲公民因为室外和室内空气污染而过早死亡，而经济成本更是高达1.6万亿美元，相当于欧盟GDP的9%左右。


London and Paris suffer from particularly severe air-quality problems.

伦敦和巴黎因为严重的空气质量问题而损失惨重。


Nitrogen dioxide levels in some parts of London regularly reach 2-3 times the recommended limit.

伦敦某些地方的二氧化氮水平有时高达建议上限的2—3倍。


In the United Kingdom, air pollution kills some 29,000 people a year, putting it second only to smoking as a cause of premature death.

在英国，空气污染k每年要杀死29,000人左右，是仅次于吸烟的第二大过早死亡原因。


Paris may be even worse off; in March, after air-pollution levels surpassed Shanghai’s, the city imposed a partial driving ban and introduced free public transportation.

巴黎的情况比伦敦还要糟糕；3月，巴黎空气污染水平超过上海，不得不实施局部限行并推出免费公交。


Sadly, Europe’s policymakers do not seem up to the challenge.

悲哀的是，欧洲决策者似乎并未直面挑战。


George Osborne, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, has argued against British leadership in the fight against climate change.

英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）反对英国在对抗气候变化中其领导作用。


“We are not going to save the planet by shutting down our steel mills, aluminum smelters, and paper manufacturers,” he declared in 2011.

“我们不会为了拯救地球而关掉我们的轧钢厂、炼铝厂和造纸厂 ， ” 他在2011年说道。


Osborne is not alone.

奥斯本不是一个人。


With European politicians arguing that introducing environmental safeguards will hurt the EU’s already-weakened economy, it comes as little surprise that measures to limit air pollution fall far short of the mark.

欧洲政客认为引入环境保护机制会影响已经相当疲软的欧盟经济，因此，毫不奇怪遏制空气污染的措施远远达不到要求。


The EU’s proposed standards regulating toxic emissions from coal plants are even less strict than China’s, Greenpeace reports.

据绿色和平组织报告欧盟计划采取的限制火电厂有害气体排放的标准甚至还没有中国严格。


Yet various European politicians have called for watering them down even further, with Hungary suggesting that they be scrapped altogether.

但许多欧洲政客还要求进一步降低标准，匈牙利认为应该完全放弃监管。


To be sure, air pollution levels in Asia are truly worrisome.

平心而论，亚洲空气污染水平确实值得担忧。


The continent is home to nine of the world’s ten most polluted countries, according to Yale University’s 2014 Air Quality Ranking.

根据2014年耶鲁大学空气质量排名，世界十大污染最严重国家中有九个位于亚洲。


New Delhi is ranked as the most polluted city on earth, with air pollution exceeding safe levels by a factor of 60.

新德里位列地球城市污染程度榜第一名，空气污染超过安全水平60倍。


Owing to Beijing’s unhealthy air, foreign companies pay a “hardship bonus” of up to 30% to employees working there.

由于北京的空气危害健康，外国公司必须向驻北京员工支付高达30%的“困难费 ” 。


But at least policymakers in Asia have recognized the problem and are taking steps to address it.

但至少亚洲决策者认识到了这一问题，并在采取行动解决它。


China, for example, has declared a “war on pollution.”

比如，中国宣布要打一场“污染之仗 ” 。


By 2017, Beijing – once dubbed “Greyjing” by the international media – will spend some CN¥760 billion ($121 billion) to combat air pollution.

到2017年，曾经被国际媒体戏称为“霾都”的北京将斥资7,600亿元人民币治理空气污染。


At the heart of China’s measures are improved public transportation, green trade, and a revision of the energy mix.

中国的措施的核心是改进公共交通、绿色贸易和改变能源结构。


The government has decided to install bus stops every 500 meters in city centers, reduce tariffs to 5% or less for a list of 54 environmental goods, and decommission many outdated and inefficient coal plants.

政府在市中心每隔500米设立一个公交站点，将54种环境产品的关税下降到5%或以下。


The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption is expected to increase to 20% by 2030.

非化石燃料占初级燃料消费量的比重到2030年将上升到20 % 。


These targets are likely to be rigorously implemented, given strong political support from the very top.

这些目标有可能得到严格实施，因为它们得到了最高层的强力政治支持。


Meanwhile, in India, the state governments in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are about to launch the world’s first cap-and-trade schemes for particulates.

与此同时，载运毒，古吉拉特、马哈拉施特拉和泰米尔纳德等邦准备实施世界上首个微粒配额和交易机制。


India’s Supreme Court even suggested an extra charge on privately owned diesel vehicles in New Delhi.

印度最高法院甚至建议对新德里私家柴油机动车征收附加费。


Other parts of Asia are also taking steps to improve air quality.

其他亚洲国家也在采取措施改善空气质量。


Vietnam aims to construct eight urban rail lines in the coming years.

越南目标在未来几年中建设八条城市轨道交通线。


Bangkok, which has been tackling air pollution since the 1990s, has planted 400,000 trees.

曼谷从20世纪90年代便开始治理空气污染，种植了400,000株树木。


And Japan is offering subsidies for hydrogen cars and creating new pedestrian-only areas.

日本也采取了氢燃料汽车补贴，开辟新的步行区域。


Europe, as one of the world’s wealthiest regions, ought to be at the forefront of the effort to promote environmental sustainability.

作为世界最富有地区之一的欧洲理应站在促进环境可持续性的最前沿。


When it comes to air pollution, however, Europe’s policymakers should stop preaching to others and focus on fixing their own problems.

但是，在空气污染问题上，欧洲决策者应该停止好为人师，专注于解决自身问题。


A Japanese Metamorphosis?

日本的转型？


OSAKA – Yesterday’s landslide general-election victory by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) terminated the one-party-dominated system that the catch-all Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has controlled almost without interruption since 1955.

大阪 — — 昨天日本民主党（DPJ）在大选中以压倒性优势获胜结束了自民党无所不能的（LDP）一党专政体系，从1955年以后一党专政体系的控制权就一直牢牢掌握在自民党手中。


For most of the last decade, the DPJ was not seen as a viable alternative to the LDP, although they appeared to form a pseudo-two-party system.

过去10年来，尽管伪两党体系已经初见规模，但民主党一直被看作自民党可能的替代党派。


Twenty years after the Cold War’s end, Japan will at last have a post-Cold War system of government.

冷战结束20年后，日本终于即将建立起后冷战时期的政府体系。


The Japanese public, even now, remains uncertain about the DPJ’s ability to govern and is skeptical of its rosy programs of wealth redistribution, which lack solid funding.

即便现在，日本公众仍然对民主党的执政能力和缺乏资金支持的财富再分配的诱人计划持怀疑态度。


The public is also fully aware that the ideologically fragmented DPJ lacks a pragmatic, coherent foreign and security policy

公众也非常清楚在意识形态上壁垒分明的民主党不具备现实、连贯的外交和安全政策。


Yet the DPJ will form the next government because of public disgust with the LDP.

但公众对于自民党的厌恶情绪却使民主党登上了下届政府宝座。


For the last four years, the LDP had shown itself to be utterly unresponsive to the key issues of popular concern: pensions, unemployment, and the fraying social safety net.

四年来，自民党彻底无视公众所关注的养老金、失业和社会安全网损坏等关键性问题。


Moreover, the LDP was plagued by a string of minor scandals and consistent bungling.

此外，自民党还受到一系列丑闻的困扰，并一如既往地表现出拙劣的执政能力。


The LDP’s need for three different prime ministers in the space of little more than a year made plain that the party’s power nucleus had melted down.

自民党在短短一年多的时间里更换三名首相充分说明该党的权力核心已经解体。


Once in power, the DPJ will immediately confront the massive bureaucracy and entrenched mandarins, which usually sabotage any efforts at administrative reform that threatens their power and vested interests.

掌权以后，民主党将立即需要面对庞大的官僚体系和根深蒂固的官僚家族，它们会故意破坏威胁其权力和既得利益的任何行政改革政策。


Indeed, immediately after the election, the budget estimates for the next fiscal year are due.

实际上，这次选举刚刚结束，下一年度的财政预算案就必须提交。


The figures that will be presented are the result of a lengthy process, in which the bureaucracy closely consulted with LDP.

提交的预算数字需要经过繁琐的程序，在此期间需要官僚体系与自民党密切配合。


So, without breaking the regular budget cycle, the DPJ will be forced to implement not only the supplementary budget drawn up by the LDP, but will also be stuck with next year’s budget, which embodies LDP policies that the DPJ has denounced.

因此，如果不打破常规的预算周期，民主党将被迫执行自民党制定的补充预算计划，而且还必须接受下一年度预算，而这份预算恰恰体现了民主党一直声讨的自民党政策。


As a result, the DPJ has announced plans to revoke the LDP’s guidelines for a ceiling on budget requests so as to formulate its own budget from scratch.  It will also revise the supplementary budget as well.

因此，民主党已经宣布废除自民党规则的计划，取消预算申请上限，以便从零开始制定自己的预算计划。 它还将修改补充预算计划。


But time is short, and few of new DPJ lawmakers possess the legislative experience and budgetary expertise to make that happen.

但时间太过短暂，并且没有多少民主党立法人员掌握达到目标所需的立法经验和预算知识。


To gain control of the mandarins, the DPJ plans to place 100 lawmakers in the ministries’ top leadership, as well as three dozen political appointees to policy staffs in the office of the prime minister.

为了控制官僚体系，民主党计划安排100名立法人员担任各部的高层领导，并任命三十六名政治特派员承担首相办公室的政策工作。


Unfortunately, the DPJ scrapped an LDP-sponsored civil-service reform bill, which would have allowed the DPJ to replace mandarins with an army of political appointees.

令人遗憾的是，民主党否决了一项由自民党提出的公务员改革法案，这项法案本可以允许民主党用政治特派员取代官僚家族。


The DPJ, despite its manifesto, seems unprepared to tame the mandarins, and so may be forced to rely on them.

尽管表面上态度坚决，但民主党似乎还没有准备好驯服各级官僚，因此可能最终不得不接受以他们为依托。


The ascendency of the mandarins is a legacy of Japan’s unique historical development dating back to its early modern period.

官僚家族的优越地位可以追溯到日本现代化早期独特的历史发展道路。


Unlike in Europe, Japan developed its state before building a strong civil society.

和欧洲不同的是，日本在强大的公民社会形成之前就已经建立了国家。


Indeed, full-fledged “society”-building started only after the 1868 Meiji Restoration, which tipped the balance of power definitively in favor of the state.

实际上，全方位的“社会”建设在1868年明治维新之后才真正开始，从而导致权力的天平彻底地向国家方向倾斜。


As a result, the mandarins survived WWII and the postwar American occupation relatively undamaged, and they will strive to survive the DPJ government as well.

官僚家族因此相对完好地度过了二战和战后的美国占领，此次他们同样也能安然度过民主党政府的任期。


They will most likely succeed.

他们很有可能再次成功逃脱。


LDP lawmakers and mandarins developed a routine in which mandarins drafted cabinet-sponsored bills, LDP lawmakers checked the bills, and the two together finalized legislative drafts before they were introduced to the Diet (parliament).

自民党立法人员和官僚家族形成了一套常规程序，由官僚家族负责制定内阁法案，立法人员负责审核，再由两者共同拿出最终的决议草案，而后再提交议会表决。


Since the LDP, recently with a coalition partner, controlled the Diet, the legislative process was simply the interaction between LDP lawmakers and mandarins, centered in the LDP’s headquarters.

自从自民党不久前与联盟伙伴共同控制议会以后，立法过程就成了以自民党总部为核心的自民党立法人士和官僚家族之间的互动。


The Diet’s role was merely pro forma.

议会不过起到了形式上的作用。


Indeed, under the LDP-led one-party-dominant system, this extra-constitutional mechanism became an integral part of Japan’s government polity.

实际上，在自民党领导的一党专政制度下，上述宪法外机制已经成为日本政府政体不可分割的组成部分。


The DPJ government will collide head-on with the mandarins, partly because the party will find it hard to recruit sufficiently qualified policymakers.

民主党政府将直接与官僚体系发生碰撞，部分原因是民主党难以招募到足够数量的合格决策者。


The mandarins have maintained their privileged position in this regard, owing partly to the tax system, which prevents the emergence of non-profit institutions, especially think tanks, where independent policy expertise can be forged.

官僚家族在上述领域一直保持着优势地位，这部分需要归功于税收体系妨碍了非营利性机构，特别是智库的产生，而独立的政策知识正需要通过以上渠道获得。


Moreover, perhaps in anticipation of a change in power, the mandarins have moved forward the annual personnel changes in the major ministries’ top administrative positions.

此外，或许是预见到了权力的变化，官僚家族已经推动了主要部委高层行政职务的年度人员更替过程。


And what of the LDP?

那么自民党的境况又将如何？


Having fallen from power, it will lose its control of the redistribution of government funds.

失去权力后，它将无法控制政府资金再分配。


Unable to pay off its constituencies, disintegration looms, for the LDP has never been a party with entrenched grass-roots support, but instead operates as a machine of power and redistribution through a web of insiders across the country’s industrial sectors, occupational associations, and local communities.

如果无法兑现承诺给支持者的好处，就有可能导致分崩离析的结果，因为自民党从来就匮乏根深蒂固的基层民众支持，而是通过与遍布全国的行业部门、职业协会和当地社区的内部人士联网实现对权力和再分配机器的操纵。


Only by recruiting new blood and reorganizing itself with a solid ideological platform will an LDP comeback be possible.

只有通过吸收新鲜血液和重建牢固的意识形态，自民党才有可能重新执政。


The DPJ has even weaker grass-roots support, so the mandarins will most likely use their standard techniques of divide and rule to cajole the party by teaching it to mimic the LDP in using state money and contracts to underwrite its major constituencies, such as labor unions and other interest groups.

民主党的基层支持更为薄弱，因此官僚家族极有可能利用其分而治之的标准策略，诱骗民主党像自民党一样利用国家资金和政府合同来回馈工会和其他利益组织等主要的支持者。


The birth of the DPJ government can yet be a turning point.

民主党政府的诞生仍然可以是一次转折。


A major power shift in favor of “society” has taken place.

一次有利于“社会”的权力转型已经发生。


If the DPJ can break free of mandarin control by centralizing policy formation in the office of the prime minister, as it intends, Japan can emerge as a more resilient democracy with a full-fledged two-party system and greater willingness to assume an international leadership role.

如果民主党能像自己希望的那样通过集中首相办公室的政策制定来摆脱官僚家族的控制，日本就能够成为一个更有活力的民主国家，拥有更加完善的两党制度，也更愿意发挥国际领导作用。


A Jobless Recovery?

失业问题困扰下的复苏？


CAMBRIDGE – Who will suffer the longest and the most from the implosion in 2008-2009 of Wall Street and the ensuing world recession?

剑桥 — — 2008至2009年华尔街风暴和紧接着的全球衰退中，谁会受到最长期、最猛烈的打击？


Not the bankers and financiers who created the disaster.

不是造成这场灾难的银行家和金融家。


Some financiers, like Bernard Madoff, will go to prison for fraud.

某些金融家会因欺诈入狱，例如伯纳德·麦道夫。


But, although Madoff was only the tip of the iceberg of rampant financial malfeasance, most suspect financiers need not fear arrest, either because their behavior merely skirted the law, or because financial impropriety more subtle than outright fraud is often difficult to prove.

但是，尽管麦道夫丑闻只是猖獗的金融违法行为的冰山一角，但大多数有嫌疑的金融家并不需要担心被捕，因为他们的行为只是打了法律的擦边球，或者是因为比彻底的欺诈更微妙的金融不当行为通常很难取证。


Some bank bosses will retire in shame, but with huge payments to ease their pain – such as the $55 million golden parachute handed to Bank of America’s Ken Lewis, with his, and the £25 million pension bestowed on Royal Bank of Scotland’s Fred Godwin.

一些银行老板会在耻辱中下台，但会得到巨额的补偿来缓解他们的痛苦 — — 例如美国银行的肯·刘易斯得到价值5500万美元的“金色降落伞 ” ， 又如苏格兰皇家银行的弗雷德·歌德温得到2500万英镑退休金。


But, buoyed by government bailout money, guarantees, and low interest rates, many banks have again begun to pay their top managers huge bonuses while fighting vigorously against reforms designed to restrain their risk-taking and compensation.

然而，在得到政府紧急融资、担保和低利率的支援后，许多银行又开始给高层管理者支付巨额的奖金，同时强烈地反对旨在限制他们冒险和补偿的改革。


The big losers from this economic disaster are workers in the advanced countries that bought into the laissez-faire flexibility of American-style capitalism.

这场经济灾难的大输家是那些认同美式资本主义放任自流政策的发达国家的工人。


From 2007 to October 2009, the United States lost nearly eight million jobs, which reduced the employment-population ratio from 63% to 58.5%.

从2007年到2009年10月，美国失去了近800万个工作岗位，就业人口率从63%下降到58.5 % 。


The unemployment rate at the end of 2009 was above 10%, duration of joblessness was the longest since the Great Depression, millions had had their working hours cut, and millions more were too discouraged by a lack of jobs to seek work.

2009年底的失业率超过10 % ， 失业状态的持续时间是大萧条以来的最长，数百万人的工作时间缩短，更有数百万人因工作机会的缺乏而失去找工作的勇气。


Advanced Europe, Canada, and Japan also suffered major job losses that will last for a long time.

欧洲的发达国家、加拿大和日本也遭受了严重的失业问题，并且会持续相当长的时间。


Spain, which allows for widespread temporary contracts, has had the biggest increase in unemployment, because Spanish workers can be fired as quickly as those in the US.

允许临时合同广泛存在的西班牙失业率增幅最大，因为西班牙的工人被炒鱿鱼的速度堪比美国工人。


Some countries – for example, Germany, Sweden, and South Korea – have “hidden” their joblessness by paying firms to keep workers on the payroll.

某些国家 — — 例如德国、瑞典和韩国 — — 付钱给公司，让他们留住正式职员，从而“隐藏”了失业问题。


This can work in the short term, but it cannot be sustained over time.

这种做法在短期内可能有效，但不能长期维持。


From the 1980’s through the mid-2000’s, employment has increasingly lagged GDP in economic recoveries.

从上世纪80年代，一直到21世纪第一个十年中叶，就业率的恢复越来越落后于GDP。


In the US, there was a jobless recovery under President Bill Clinton until the dot.com boom in the latter part of the 1990’s, and there was a jobless recovery under George W. Bush in the wake of the 2001 slowdown.

在美国，克林顿总统治下的经济复苏就存在失业问题，直到90年代后半叶网络公司兴起。 2001年经济增长放缓之后，乔治·布什治下的经济复苏也存在失业问题。


In the early 1990’s, Sweden suffered a huge recession precipitated by a housing bubble and a banking crisis. Its unemployment rate rose from 1.8% in 1990 to 9.6% in 1994, before bottoming out at 5% in 2001.

上世纪90年代初，瑞典因房地产泡沫和银行业危机而遭受了一场大规模的衰退，失业率从1990年的1.8%上升到1994年的9.6 % ， 2001年探底后回升，达到5 % 。


Sixteen years after the crisis, the unemployment rate was 6.2% – more than triple the rate in 1990.

这场危机过后16年，失业率达到6.2 % — —是1990年的三倍还多。


In 1997, Korea suffered not only from the Asian financial crisis, but also from insistence by the US and the International Monetary Fund that it raise interest rates and undertake “Washington Consensus”-style reforms to receive aid.

1997年，韩国不但遭受亚洲金融危机的打击，更因美国和国际货币基金组织坚持让其提高利率、执行类似华盛顿共识的改革来获取援助而雪上加霜。


Employment recovered, but primarily in “non-regular” jobs with limited benefits, low wages, and little job security.

就业率恢复了，但主要是靠福利有限、低工资、且几乎没有就业保障的“非正式”工作。


Inequality in Korea rose from moderate levels to second highest (behind the US) among advanced OECD countries.

韩国的贫富差距从中等水平跃升至经合组织发达国家中的第二高（仅次于美国 ） 。


Weakness in the job market takes a huge toll on economic and personal well-being.

就业市场的虚弱对经济的健康和个人的幸福造成了巨大损害。


Young people seeking their first jobs and experienced workers who lose jobs in a weak job market suffer economic losses that will last their entire lives.

在虚弱的就业市场上寻找第一份工作的年轻人和工作经验丰富的失业者受到的经济损失将影响他们的一生。


Studies of happiness show that unemployment reduces happiness by as much as the loss of a family member.

幸福指数的研究表明，失业对幸福感的打击不亚于失去一名至亲。


It is difficult to see the US re-attaining full employment anytime soon.

美国很难在不久的将来重新实现充分就业。


From 1993 to 1998, the US created millions of jobs, which raised the employment rate by 5.4 percentage points.

从1993年到1998年，美国创造了数百万的工作岗位，就业率上升了5.4个百分点。


If employment began rising at this rate in 2010, it would take until 2015 before it reached its pre-recession level.

如果就业率在2010年开始以这个速度上升，要到2015年才能重新达到衰退前的水平。


And slow recovery in the US will drag down recovery in other advanced countries, reducing their employment as well.

美国经济的缓慢复苏将会拖累其他发达国家，降低他们的就业率。


A long, painful period of high unemployment runs counter to what most experts believed the flexible US economic model would ever produce.

漫长而痛苦的高失业率与大多数专家心目中以为灵活的美国经济模式会带来的后果背道而驰。


From the early 1990’s on, many analysts viewed America’s weak unionization, at-will employment, limited legal job protection, and high job turnover as major factors in achieving a lower unemployment rate than most EU countries.

从上世纪90年代初起，许多分析家就把美国松散的工会组织、任意的聘用关系、法律对工作的有限保护、以及频繁的工作变动视为失业率低于大多数欧盟国家的主要因素。


Many OECD countries initiated various kinds of flexibility reforms in the hope of improving their economies along US lines.

许多经合组织国家启动了各种各样的灵活化改革，希望按照美国的模式改善自己的经济。


The view that flexibility is the key factor in employment is no longer tenable.

将灵活性视为保障就业关键因素的观点再也站不住脚了。


In its 2009 Employment Outlook , the OECD took a hard look at its favored policy reforms and found them deficient in helping countries adjust to a finance-driven recession.

经合组织在2009年《就业展望》中仔细审视了他们偏爱的政策改革，结果发现这些改革不足以帮助各国适应金融业引起的衰退。


According to the OECD, “there does not appear to be any strong reason to expect that recent structural reforms mean that OECD labor markets are now substantially less sensitive to severe economic downturns.”

根据经合组织的说法 ， “ 没有有力的理由让人相信近来的结构改革能有效降低经合组织国家劳动力市场对严重经济萎缩的敏感度。 ”


So the lesson from the recession is clear.

经济衰退给我们的教训已经显而易见。


The weak reed in capitalism is not the labor market, but the financial market.

资本主义的弱点不在于劳动力市场，而在于金融市场。


At worst, labor-market failures impose modest inefficiency costs on society, whereas capital-market failures harm society greatly, with workers, rather than the perpetrators of financial disaster, suffering the most.

在最糟糕的情况下，劳动力市场的衰退也只能给社会不大的效率问题，但资本市场的衰退则会极大地损害社会，而受损最严重的是工人，而不是金融灾难的罪魁祸首。


Moreover, globalization means that the US capital market’s failure spreads misery around the world.

而且，全球化意味着美国的资本市场衰退会在全球范围内造成极大影响。


We owe it to workers victimized by this recession to reinvent finance so that it works to enrich the real economy, instead of enriching only the financiers.

我们亏欠因这场衰退而受到伤害的工人，有必要彻底改造金融制度，使之推动真正的经济发展，而不是仅让金融家中饱私囊。


This means changing the incentives and rules that govern the financial sector.

这意味着改变金融部门的激励制度和规则。


Since other countries’ economies and jobs are also at stake, they owe it to their citizens to press the US to deliver meaningful financial reforms.

其他国家的经济和工作岗位同样危如累卵，因此他们为了各自的公民也必须敦促美国进行有意义的金融改革。


France’s Midsummer Night’s Dream

法国的仲夏夜之梦


PARIS – Bastille Day, the French national holiday, was glorious this year.

巴黎—巴士底日是法国的国定假日。 今年，这个日子无比光荣。


The military parade, dominated by the celebration of “victory” in Mali and the joint participation of African and United Nations troops, had the perfection of a gracious, albeit muscular, ballet.

以庆祝马里“胜利”和非洲和联合国军队联合参与为主题的军事游行堪称优美的芭蕾表演 — — 尽管这是肌肉版芭蕾。


The classical concert that preceded the magisterial fireworks that ended the day was the closest thing to a French version of the Proms in London, mixing light classical and popular songs.

那一天的压轴表演是古典音乐会及随后的庄严的火花。 音乐会堪称法国版伦敦逍遥音乐会（Proms in London ） ， 结合了轻古典乐和流行歌曲。


The Eiffel Tower imbued the evening with its magic.

埃菲尔铁塔用它的魔力照耀着这个夜晚。


Paris, in case anyone had any lingering doubts, remains the capital of the world – or so it seemed for a night.

不管你是谁，心存何疑虑，在那个晚上，巴黎仍是世界之都。


The melancholia that began to seize France many years ago was all but forgotten.

缠上法国多年的压抑被忘得一干二净。


The celebration of the glory of the past, mixed with popular English songs of the present, seemed to indicate renewed national confidence.

对昔日荣光的庆祝，伴随着英语流行歌曲和表演，似乎在彰显重生的民族自信。


What was the meaning of this moment of grace?

这一优美时刻有着什么意义？


Was it purely the product of a collective delusion, an emotional Potemkin village of sorts, encouraged, if not conceived, by the authorities to restore some level of self-assurance among France’s depressed citizens?

它只是群体错觉的产物，是当局为了在某种程度上重塑压抑的法国国民的自尊而鼓励（如果不是说服的话）的情感上的波将金村（Potemkin village）吗？


Even if the positive emotions remain only fleeting (as seems most likely), they were real and palpable.

即使积极情绪最终只会消失殆尽（这是最有可能的情形 ） ， 它们也是真实而容易捕捉的。


The French seemed to be in the mood to celebrate.

法国人沉浸在喜庆之中。


Of course, it could simply have been the weather; a gorgeous summer has finally settled in after a miserable spring.

当然，也许原因仅仅是天气 — — 在经历了痛苦的春天后，灿烂的夏天终于到来。


But it might also have been one of those natural turning points, a collective and spontaneous decision to say: “Enough of depression, let’s move on.”

但这或许也是自然转折点之一，是集体性的同时决定 ： “ 受够了压抑，让我们前进吧。


We French may not be what we used to be, the celebrants seemed to be saying, but we are still much more than people think we are.

”庆祝者似乎在说，法国人或许已不再是昔日的法国人，但我们仍比人们所认为的更好。


We have a great revolutionary past that still conveys universal values – liberty, equality, fraternity – and an army that, as in Mali, continues to make a difference in the world.

我们有伟大的革命的过去，这一过去仍在传达普世价值 — — 自由、平等、博爱；我们有军队，马里证明我们的军队仍能给世界带来不同。


One can draw two lessons from this collective form of escapism.

在这一集体逃避现实中，你可以发现两点。


The first is that, beyond the many layers of depression and distrust in France, there is potential for a new and collective departure.

第一点，在法国内部的多重压抑和不信任之外，还有一层潜在的新的集体出发。


This would require, of course, less cynical political elites who can transcend their petty ambitions and divisions for the sake of the country.

当然，这要求有更加坚定的政治精英，为了国家的命运牺牲自己的小野心和小异议。


The second lesson, even more obvious, is that reality cannot be changed with a simple public spectacle.

第二点更加明显，那就是现实不可能因为一场精彩的公共表演而改变。


France is not Imperial Rome, where panem et circenses made a fundamental difference.

法国不是罗马帝国，面包和游戏（panem et circenses）就能造成根本性的不同。


It is a weakened democracy mired in an economic and social crisis so deep that it verges on becoming an identity crisis.

法国是一个削弱了的民主国家，困于深刻的经济和社会危机，站在身份危机的边缘。


The proof was provided by a third traditional event on Bastille Day, between the morning’s military parade and the evening’s music and fireworks: President François Hollande’s speech to the nation, which took the form of an interview with two prominent journalists.

巴士底日的第三项传统节目提供了证明。 这个节目处于上午的军事游行和晚上的音乐和烟花之间：总统奥朗德发表全国演讲，今年的形式是由两名著名记者对他进行采访。


He, too, was in a reassuring mood.

奥朗德也是一副踌躇满志的样子。


According to Hollande, the economic upturn – la reprise – had just started, and hope was around the corner.

在奥朗德看来，经济好转 — — 复苏（la reprise ） — —才刚刚开始，希望的曙光刚刚显现。


His tone and message had changed.

他的语调和说辞发生了改变。


He was no longer the “normal man” of his election campaign and tenure until now; instead, he tried to present himself, like his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, as a superhero.

他不再是竞选期间和就任至今的那个“普通人 ” ； 相反，他试图让自己像他的前任萨科齐，成为超级英雄。


Of course, given his personality and low public-approval ratings, his address was the least convincing event of the day.

当然，从他的人格和低公共支持度看，他的演讲是巴士底日最无说服力的事件。


Who could have said with certainty that the economic upturn announced by Hollande was real rather than aspirational?

谁能拍着胸脯说奥朗德所宣布的经济好转是现实而不是愿望？


Beyond his message’s wishful thinking, the public’s reaction to the messenger was a mixture of disbelief and indifference.

除了奥朗德话中的一厢情愿，公众对奥朗德的反应时不信任和冷漠。


Seeing the behavior of friends, all French, listening with me to Hollande, I was reminded of another moment.

看着和我一起听奥朗德讲话的朋友（都是法国人）的行为，我想起了另一个时刻。


It was December 31, 1989, and I was in the Soviet Union.

那是1989年12月31日，当时我在苏联。


I had found myself in a restaurant in the old city of Suzdal, listening to President Mikhail Gorbachev’s “New Year wishes.”

我在苏兹达尔（Suzdal）老城的一家餐馆，听总统戈尔巴乔夫的“新年祝词 ” 。


I was moved: The man who symbolized glasnost and perestroika, who had allowed the peaceful emancipation of most of Eastern and Central Europe, was speaking.

我感慨万千。 这个象征公开（glasnost）和改变（perestroika ） 、 允许东欧和中欧和平演变的人正在讲话。


But I was alone in paying attention to him.

但我是唯一一个专心听他讲话的人。


The restaurant’s customers, like my French friends now, could not have cared less.

餐馆里的其他食客，就像现在我的法国朋友，对戈尔巴乔夫的讲话一点都不关心。


Their president had become background noise.

他们的总统变成了背景噪声。


Has Hollande become, in this sense, a French Gorbachev?

从这个角度讲，难道奥朗德成了法国的戈尔巴乔夫？


For the left and the Greens, he is close to being a traitor.

对左派和绿党来说，他近乎卖国贼。


These voters chose him a year ago not only because he was not Sarkozy, but because he incarnated the values of the true left, even if his centrist moderation seemed a bad omen.

这些选民一年前之所以选择他，不仅是因为他不是萨科齐，也是因为他是真左翼价值的化身，尽管他的中间道路温和立场并非吉兆。


Voters of the center or even the center-right are disappointed, too, by their president’s lack of charisma, if not sheer incompetence.

中间派选民甚至中右翼也感到失望，因为总统缺乏魅力（如果不是彻底无能的话 ） 。


After a year of Hollande, France is witnessing a fundamental political revolution.

奥朗德上台一年后，法国正在发生根本性的政治革命。


During the half-century of the Fifth Republic, a bipartisan system of left and right has traditionally prevailed.

在第五共和国半个世纪的历史中，左派和右派的两党制已经成为了传统。


But now France is becoming a country dominated by a “tripartite system” of more or less equal strength: the left, the right, and the extreme right.

但如今法国正在变成由“三党制”主宰的国家，左派，右派和极右派或多或少地同样强大。


If France wants to capitalize on the positive emotions of Bastille Day, it needs much more responsible elites, ready to unite in the fight against unemployment and its causes (lack of competitiveness and labor-market rigidity) and consequences (the rise of populist, non-republican forces).

如果法国想利用巴士底日的积极情绪，就需要更负责的精英，准备着为了战胜失业及其原因（缺乏竞争力和劳动力市场僵化）和后果（民粹主义反共和势力崛起）而联合起来。


What Bastille Day revealed, even briefly and superficially, is that the potential to unite France exists.

巴士底日表明 — — 尽管迹象既虚弱又肤浅 — — 团结的法国的潜在力量是存在的。


But doing so requires more than shallow promises.

但这样做需要的不仅仅是流于表面的承诺。


A Kick-Off for Peace?

开启和平


Yerevan – Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent invitation to Turkish President Abdullah Gul to visit Yerevan to watch a football match together was historic.

埃里温 - - 亚美尼亚总统萨尔基相最近邀请土耳其总统居尔访问埃里温一同观看足球赛，这是具有历史意义的事件。


Given the two countries’ long-strained relations, this visit would have been remarkable at any time.

鉴于两国关系长期僵持，这一访问在任何时候都是不同寻常的。


But coming as it does only one month after the alarming Russian-Georgian confrontation, it may offer real hope that tensions in the volatile Caucasus region can be eased.

但是这是在触目惊心的俄国和格鲁吉亚冲突仅仅一个月以后，因此，这次访问也许会给人们确实的希望，也就是高加索地区动荡不安紧张局势可以得到缓解。


Of course, ancient and difficult issues divide Armenia and Turkey.

当然，亚美尼亚和土耳其之间的恩怨由来已久，错综复杂。


But now is the moment for both countries to put the past aside in order to address their common security concerns.

但是现在两国应该摒弃前嫌，处理共同的安全关切。


In the new context set by the war in Georgia, the urgency of Turkey becoming a real bridge between the nations of the Caucasus is not lost on anyone.

格鲁吉亚战争带来了新的环境，因此，人们都清楚土耳其急于想要成为高加索地区国家之间真正的桥梁。


This expectation is an inevitable consequence of Turkey’s geography and history.

这一期望是土耳其的地理和历史所决定的。


Situated figuratively between modernity and tradition, secularism and Islam, and democracy and tyranny, Turkey also is an actual physical bridge between East and West.

土耳其被比喻成为介于现代和传统、世俗和伊斯兰以及民主和专制之间，而且它在地理上也是东西方之间的桥梁。


For the peoples of the Caucasus, Turkey marks our path to Europe.

对于高加索地区的人民而言，土耳其标志着我们通向欧洲的道路。


It is a NATO member, bordering the three Caucasus republics that have NATO Individual Partnership Action Programs.

土耳其是北约成员国，与三个高加索地区国家接壤，这三个国家都有北约单个伙伴行动计划。


It aspires to join the European Union, and would bring the EU to our three borders, even as we, too, aspire to join one day.

土耳其渴望加入欧盟并且将会把欧盟带到我们的三个边境。 甚至我们也渴望有朝一日加入欧盟。


Indeed, Turkey has never missed an opportunity to present itself as a regional broker.

确实，土耳其从来就没有错过机会成为地区调停人。


Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey proposed the Black Sea Economic Cooperation.

苏联解体后，它马上就提议建立黑海经济合作组织。


This year, as the American-led effort to mediate a Middle East peace settlement began to falter, Turkey took up the job of mediator in both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the conflict between Syria and Israel.

今年，当亚美尼亚主导的中东和平倡议告吹之际，土耳其担当了巴以冲突和叙以冲突之间的调停人。


Now, in the immediate wake of the Russia-Georgia crisis, Turkey’s leaders have stepped forward once again to take a leadership role in the Caucasus.

现在俄国和格鲁吉亚危机刚刚结束，土耳其领导人再次站出来在高加索地区发挥领导作用。


The world must fervently hope that the Turkish proposal for a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform is more serious and sustained than previous similar efforts.

全世界热切希望土耳其提出的高加索稳定和合作平台比以往的类似建议更为严肃认真和持久。


But, in order to succeed, Turkey must firmly pursue a pledge from all the region’s players to repudiate the use of force in settling their disputes.

但是，为了成功，土耳其必须紧紧寻求本地区所有国家的承诺，在解决争端中放弃使用武力。


If this pledge is adopted and respected, conflicts in the region will be viewed in a wholly different, more tolerant context, marking a historic breakthrough to peace.

如果这一承诺获得通过并且尊重，那么，人们就可以完全不同而且更为宽容的眼光来审视这一地区的各种冲突。 这将标志着朝向和平的历史性突破。


In fact, why not take the idea of such a pact one step further?

实际上，为何不把这一协议主张更推进一步呢？


We in this region can, and I believe should, call for a non-aligned Caucasus, free of security blocs and adversarial alliances.

我相信，本地区国家应该而且能够呼吁建立不结盟的高加索地区，没有安全结盟或者敌对联盟。


After all, security alliances and guarantees only create dividing lines, with their attendant security challenges.

毕竟，安全挑战伴随着这些安全联盟和保证，只会制造分歧。


Our countries and peoples have, throughout history, lived under a common umbrella for far longer than we have been divided.

我们的国家和人民在历史上一直生活在一个共同的结构之下，长于分裂的时间。


Today, we share a common vision of European integration, and it is in this broader context that our conflicts should be resolved.

今天，我们共有欧洲联合的愿景。 正是在这一更广大的背景之下我们的冲突才应该得以解决。


French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visits to Georgia and Russia proved that there is no substitute for Europe insofar as the Caucasus is concerned.

法国总统萨尔科奇和德国总理默克尔对格鲁吉亚和德国的访问证明，对于欧洲而言，高加索地区是不可替代的。


Only Europe can play the role of honest broker in the region’s atmosphere of suspicion and intolerance.

只有欧洲才能够在这一地区怀疑和没有宽容的气氛下发挥真正的调停人作用。


But, at the end of the day, we ourselves must be willing to work toward a region of peace and cooperation.

但是最终，我们自己必须愿意努力建立地区和平及合作。


The Caucasus is too small a space for closed borders and explosive conflicts.

高加索地区并不辽阔，难以容得边境封锁和爆炸性冲突。


Although some of those tensions appear purely bilateral, the Georgian-Russian conflict demonstrates that there is no such thing anymore in this globalized world, and certainly not in this interconnected region.

尽管某些紧张局势看似完全是双边的，但是格鲁吉亚和俄国冲突表明，在这一全球化的世界里以及这一相互关联的地区不会有什么双边紧张局势了。


In fact, real peace in the Caucasus requires two key strategic transformations.

实际上，高加索地区的真正和平需要实现两个关键性的战略转变。


One is a lesson from history: Russia’s strategic interests here cannot be ignored.

第一是吸取历史教训。


To believe and behave otherwise would lead to regional chaos.

俄国在这一地区的战略利益不得忽视，否则将会导致地区混乱。


The other lesson is that Turkey and Armenia cannot remain adversaries forever.

第二个教训是土耳其和亚美尼亚不能永远为敌。


There must be normalization in our relations in order for the Caucasus to coalesce into a functional region.

两国关系必须正常化才能让高加索联合成为一个可以运作的地区。


Ironically, both Russia and the United States recognize that this is in their interest.

具有讽刺意味的是，美俄两国都承认这符合它们的利益。


The Russians view normal relations between Turkey and Armenia as a way to minimize Georgia’s strategic role in the region.

俄国认为，土耳其和亚美尼亚关系正常化可以把格鲁吉亚在该地区的战略作用降低到最小程度。


The US views an opening to Turkey as a way to decrease Armenia’s real and imagined reliance on Russia.

美国认为，向土耳其开放可以减少亚美尼亚对俄国实际和想象中的依赖。


Beyond the emotional impact of President Gul’s visit to Yerevan, real improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations requires opening the two countries’ closed border – the last in Europe.

居尔总统访问埃里温除了具有情感上的影响之外，土耳其和亚美尼亚两国关系得到实际改善要求开放两国封闭的边界。 这是欧洲范围内最后封闭的边界。


Or, for a start, the existing railroad link between the two countries could be made operational.

或者作为开始，两国之间现有的铁路连接应当投入运行。


If this does not happen within the coming weeks and months, then Turkey will have demonstrated that all this was just a show.

如果这一点在今后几周或几个月内无法实现，那么，土耳其就会表明这一切都不过是演戏罢了。


President Gul’s visit does mark a watershed – either as a failure to make history, or as the beginning of a new era.

居尔总统的访问的确具有分水岭的意义，而这一分水岭要么是无法创造历史，要么是新时代的开始。


Truth and Consequences

真相与后果


NEW YORK – The recent re-election of Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos, brings hope to a country seeking to end a half-century of conflict.

纽约 — — 不久前哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯竞选连任为结束该国半个世纪的冲突带来了希望。


But, as with so many peace processes, finding a balance between creating a stable accord and acknowledging the terrible injustices that occurred during the conflict can be difficult to achieve.

但是像其他众多和平进程一样，在签署稳定协议和承认冲突中发生的可怕的不公正之间找到平衡或许很难做到。


Many countries and communities, from Nepal to Northern Ireland, have grappled with legacies of ethnic, ideological, or religious division and violence, often with limited success.

从尼泊尔到北爱尔兰的很多国家和团体一直在设法解决民族、意识形态、宗教分裂和暴力领域的遗留问题，但成功的先例却少之又少。


This is frequently the case because the mechanisms established to cope with post-conflict reconciliation, truth, and justice, have proved inadequate.

归根结底是因为事实已经证明处理冲突后和解、真相和正义的机制远远不够。


In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) has made important contributions to truth seeking.

在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那，前南问题国际刑事法庭（ICTY）为揭露真相做出了重要贡献。


But victims complain that its procedures are slow and abstruse; and many Bosnian Serbs are convinced that the tribunal is selective and politically motivated.

但受害者抱怨其程序迟缓晦涩；很多波黑塞族相信法庭是有选择性和政治动机的。


An agreement between Nepal’s government and Maoist guerrillas to establish a truth commission and investigate the “disappeared” was delayed for seven years.

尼泊尔政府和毛派游击队之间成立真相委员会调查“失踪人员”的协议被推迟了七年之久。


When legislators finally enacted the enabling legislation in May 2013, victims were dismayed to discover that the commission would be allowed to recommend amnesties for crimes against humanity, in contravention of international principles and United Nations guidelines.

当立法者终于在2013年5月颁布授权法案时，受害者惊惶地发现该委员会居然有权建议赦免反人类罪，这悍然违反了国际原则和联合国准则。


In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement, justly acclaimed for staunching the bloodshed and starting reconciliation, has – to the great frustration of victims – run into political resistance over one integral element of the peace process: the establishment of mechanisms to clarify past crimes.

北爱尔兰终止流血并启动和解的耶稣受难日协定理应受到赞誉，但令受害者沮丧的是，和平进程的一个组成部分 — — 建立调查过去罪行的机制 — — 遭遇的政治阻力非常之强。


Peace negotiators understandably fear that criminal accountability for past crimes will threaten their side’s leaders and supporters.

和平谈判代表担心追究过去罪行的刑事责任会威胁本方领导人和支持者的安全是有道理的。


Many have wrongly assumed – based on a misinterpretation of the South African experience – that truth commissions provide a “soft” alternative to justice.

很多人基于对南非经验的误解认为真相委员会比法律制裁更加“柔和 ” 。


As a result, they have willingly incorporated these mechanisms into peace agreements (conveniently ignoring the fact that the victims are forced to choose between seeking justice and learning the truth).

他们因此很愿意把上述机制载入和平协定（由此正中下怀地忽略了受害者被迫要在正义和真相间做出选择 ） 。


Predictably, as truth commissions have become established components of transitional justice, former fighters have become increasingly worried that their reputations and political credibility could be on the line should past crimes ever come to light.

可以想见，随着真相委员会成为过渡正义的组成部分，曾经的武装份子越来越担心曝光过去的罪行会影响他们的声誉和政治可信度。


Seeking the truth can be unsettling and painful for anyone, but it comes with serious consequences for those with reason to fear justice.

了解真相对任何人来讲都伴随着不安和痛苦，但却会为那些有理由害怕制裁的人带来严重的后果。


Indeed, conflict mediation and transitional justice rely on truth commissions as a fundamental building block of peace not because such commissions provide impunity for the worst crimes; on the contrary, they reinforce comprehensive rights-based policies and access to justice.

事实上，真相委员会作为冲突调解和过渡司法的和平基础并不是因为其对最恶劣的犯罪行为免于惩罚；恰恰相反，它们落实了以权利为基础的全面的法律和政策。


As a recent symposium, organized by the Kofi Annan Foundation and the International Center for Transitional Justice, concluded, truth commissions contribute most to peace by reasserting the rule of law, recognizing victims, and supporting institutional reform.

不久前由科菲·安南基金会和国际过渡时期司法中心举办的研讨会得出结论，真相委员会通过恢复法治、承认受害者权利和支持机构改革而对和平贡献最大。


But, in order to succeed, these commissions must be effective, independent, and legitimate.

但真相委员会成功的前提是高效、独立、合法。


Half-measures will not do.

仅靠权宜之计不可能实现目标。


Truth commissions therefore should never be established as “box-ticking” exercises to assuage local public opinion or the international community, as witnessed in Nepal.

因此永远也不要像尼泊尔那样让真相委员会沦为缓和当地或国际社会公众舆论的象征性机构。


Even when broad mandates and functions are established with the best of intentions, truth commissions are often deprived of the necessary resources, leading to further frustration and disillusion.

即使划定广泛的任务和职能范围完全出于好意，但真相委员会却往往得不到必要的资源，导致民众进一步信心受挫、理想幻灭。


Moreover, a commission should not be led or staffed by individuals of questionable integrity, thereby undermining the legitimacy of the process.

此外，委员会不应默许品格有问题的人领导或参与，否则可能对程序的合法性构成威胁。


Above all, truth commissions must be adapted to a country’s particular circumstances.

总之，真相委员会必须与国家的具体情况相适应。


As we have seen in Bosnia, Colombia, Nepal, Northern Ireland, and elsewhere, the nature of conflicts and how they are resolved differ widely; so should their respective commissions.

我们已经在波斯尼亚、哥伦比亚、尼泊尔、北爱尔兰和其他国家看到冲突的性质和解决的方法有很大不同；因此各国委员会应当本着因地制宜的原则。


A “one-size-fits-all” solution ends up fitting no one.

“一刀切”的解决方案不适合任何国家。


It is vital that the details of each case of post-conflict transitional justice are understood and implemented.

理解并落实每宗过渡期司法个案的细节非常重要。


It is all too easy for political leaders to ignore victims or suppress the truth in their quest for a peace deal.

在试图签署和平协定时忽视受害者或隐瞒真相是政治领导人最容易犯的错误。


But recognizing victims’ rights is an indispensable condition for lasting peace.

但实现持久和平不可缺少的条件是承认受害者的权利。


Human suffering and victims’ dignity are too powerful to be erased by others’ political pacts.

任何人的政治协定都不能以罔顾人类苦难和受害者尊严为代价。


Eventually, the past demands its due: justice is not just an ideal; it is an investment in a better future.

最后，我们必须总结过去的经验教训：正义不仅是种理想；也是投资于更好的未来。


Alan Greenspan on Trial

审判格林斯潘


The release of Alan Greenspan’s ghostwritten memoirs The Age of Turbulence has elicited charges that he was not such a great central banker after all.

阿兰•格林斯潘由他人捉刀的回忆录《动荡岁月》出版以来，引发了认为他不是一位出色的央行行长的指责。


Stan Collender of National Journal sees the fingerprints of the White House on these attacks: Greenspan is harshly critical of George W. Bush’s administration, after all, and to attack the credibility of Republican ex-policymakers who are critical of Bush is standard counterpunching for it.

National Journal 的Stan Collender在这些攻击当中发现了白宫的影子：毕竟格林斯潘是布什政府的严厉批评者，而对一个对布什持批评态度的共和党前政策制定者的公信力发动攻击是不折不扣的报复手段。


But what is one to make of the criticisms of Greenspan’s tenure at the Federal Reserve?

但对格林斯潘执掌美联储的生涯横加指责又有什么道理呢？


The indictment contains four counts: that Greenspan wrongly cheered the growth of non-standard adjustable-rate mortgages, which fueled the housing bubble; that he wrongly endorsed Bush’s tax cuts; that he should have reined in the stock market bubble of the 1990’s; and that he should have done the same with the real estate bubble of the 2000’s.

这种指责包括四个要点：格林斯潘错误地鼓励了非标准、可变利率按揭贷款的增长，而这就为房产泡沫推波助澜；他错误地执行了布什的减税政策；他本可以遏制1990年代的股市泡沫；他本可以同样地制止本世纪初的不动产泡沫。


To the first two counts, Greenspan now pleads guilty.

对于前两项罪名，格林斯潘供认不讳。


He says that he did not understand how the growth of non-standard mortgages had lured borrowers and investors into bearing dangerous risks.

他说他不明白为什么非标准按揭贷款的增长会诱使借款人和投资人不顾风险趋之若鹜。


He was, he now says, focusing on how fixed-rate mortgages are relatively bad deals for borrowers in times of low inflation, which was a mistake.

现在他说当时错误地关注了为什么固定利率按揭贷款在低通胀时期对借款人而言是不合理的。


Greenspan also pleads guilty to a mistake in early 2001.

格林斯潘还对2001年初的错误认罪。


He thought that he was giving balanced testimony to Congress on government budget issues.

他以为自己就政府预算问题在国会所作的证词是合适的。


He testified that it is important to run surpluses to pay down the debt, but that surpluses must not be so large that the government winds up owning American industry.

他作证说利用盈余偿还债务是重要的。 但财政盈余的规模不能大到使政府最终掌控美国的工业。


He also testified that tax cuts are better than spending increases to keep surpluses from growing too large, but that uncertainty is enormous, so that any tax cuts should be canceled if they threatened to bring us back to an age of deficits.

他还作证说减税比提高支出更能将盈余控制在一定的规模，但同时它也有相当的不确定性，因此任何有可能使我们重回财政赤字时代的减税政策都应该取消。


Robert Rubin and Kent Conrad warned him that the press would not interpret his testimony as being balanced, and that Congress would interpret it as an excuse to abandon fiscal discipline.

罗伯特•鲁宾 和 肯特•康拉德都警告他说新闻界不会认为他的证词是合适的，且国会也会将其理解为一种放弃财政纪律的借口。


They were right.

事情果然被他们言中了。


Greenspan also pleads guilty to misunderstanding the character of the Bush administration.

格林斯潘还承认误解了布什政府的特点。


He thought that his old reality-based friends from the Ford administration were back in power.

他还以为是自己在福特政府的注重现实的老朋友又重新掌权了。


He thought that he – and Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill – could win the quiet “inside game” for sensible policy without resorting to an “outside game” that would make his reappointment in 2004 unlikely.

他以为他—和财政部长保罗•奥尼尔—能够通过兵不血刃的“内部博弈”赢得理智的政策而不用诉诸可能会使他2004年连任失败的“外部博弈 ” 。


He was wrong.

他错了。


But how serious are these policy-political crimes to which Greenspan now pleads guilty?

但这些现在让格林斯潘供认不讳的政策—政治罪行究竟有多严重呢？


In my view, they are misdemeanors.

在我看来，他们只是小过错。


Against them you have to set what former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers calls Greenspan’s “golden glove” performance at avoiding and minimizing recessions during his years at the Fed.

你必须把它们放在被前财长拉里•萨默斯称为格林斯潘的“金手套”表现（即在其执掌美联储的岁月里规避及遏制经济衰退）的背景上来衡量。


The “felonies” of which Greenspan stands accused are the other two charges: that he should have done more to stop the stock market bubble of the late 1990’s, and that he should have done more to stop the housing bubble of the early 2000’s.

对于格林斯潘的两项“重罪”指控是：他本应该更努力地制止1990年代的股市泡沫和本世纪初的房地产泡沫。


Here, Greenspan holds his ground, and pleads not guilty.

而在这两点上，格林斯潘坚定地为自己进行无罪申辩。


The only way, he says, for the Fed to have kept stock prices in reasonable equilibrium ranges in the late 1990’s would have been to raise interest rates so high that they hit the real economy on the head with a brick.

他说，对美联储而言在1990年代末将股价控制在一个合理的平衡区间的唯一办法就是把利率加高到对经济当头一棒的水平。


Interest rates high enough to curb stock market speculation would also have curbed construction and other forms of investment, raised unemployment, and sent the economy into recession.

利率高到足够遏止股市的投机行为，也就会遏制建设和其他形式的投资、提高失业率并使经济陷入衰退。


To cause a significant current evil in order to avoid a possible future danger when our knowledge is limited and our judgments uncertain is, Greenspan believes, unwise.

格林斯潘认为为了规避未来的危险而制造残酷现实的策略在我们所知有限且判断不明的情况下是不明智的。


In this, he is following a tradition of caution that extends from Edmund Burke to John Maynard Keynes.

在这一点上他所遵循的是从伯克到凯恩斯的一贯审慎。


Greenspan mounts a similar defense concerning the housing bubble.

格林斯潘对有关房地产泡沫的指控进行了类似的辩护。


High construction employment has been good for American workers in the past half-decade – a period that has not produced much good for them.

建筑业的高就业率在过去五年以来对美国的工人而言是有利的—这一时期总体上并未给他们带来多收好处。


Higher interest rates to reduce the housing boom seem, even in retrospect, ill advised if the cost is mass unemployment.

用高利率来给过热的房地产市场降温，如果其代价是大规模的失业，那么即便现在回头看来也是不可取的。


And Greenspan eschews paternalism: he would not assume the role of a regulator telling people that they cannot buy a house even though a lender is willing to finance it.

并且格林斯潘还避免家长式的作风：他不想扮演一个告诉人们即便贷方愿意融资也不要买房的监管者角色。


But Greenspan would have served the country and the world better if he had been somewhat more paternalist in slowing the growth of non-standard adjustable-rate mortgages.

但格林斯潘如果在减缓非标准可变利率按揭贷款的增长方面多一点家长式的作风，那么这对美国和世界本应该更好。


He would have served the country and the world better had he been less of a loyal Republican working the inside game of trying to convince Bush’s political advisors that good policy was important, and more of a nonpartisan steward of America’s long-term fiscal stability.

如果他不是那么忠诚的一个共和党人，致力于说服布什的政治顾问们相信良好政策的重要性的内部博弈，而更愿意做一个美国长期稳定财政的非党派伺服者，那么美国和世界也本应该更美好。


Of course, such a Greenspan would never have been re-appointed.

当然，这样的格林斯潘是不会获得连任的。


All in all, Greenspan served the United States and the world well through his stewardship of monetary policy, especially by what he did not do: trying to stop stock and housing speculation by halting the economy in its tracks.

总而言之，格林斯潘在执掌货币政策时对美国和世界还是尽职尽责的，特别是他的有所不为：即试图通过拖慢经济发展来制止股市和房市的投机。


A Lasting Poison

幽灵不散


NEW YORK – Next year will mark the twentieth anniversary of the collapse of communism in Europe.

纽约-明年将迎来共产主义在欧洲垮台20周年。


Liberated from the complexity of knowing too much about the cruel past, the young people of Eastern Europe’s post-communist generation seem uninterested in what their parents and grandparents endured.

不再需要了解过多残酷过去的东欧后共产主义的年轻一代似乎对他们的父辈和祖辈所承受的一切毫无兴趣。


Yet the recent revelation of the Czech writer Milan Kundera’s presumed complicity in the face of Stalinism is but the latest of the long half-life of a toxic past.

然而最近披露捷克作家昆德拉可能曾在斯大林主义时代参与共谋的消息只不过是漫长的痛苦过去最新暴露的一个事例。


Other examples come to mind: the accusations of collaboration with the secret police raised against Lech Walesa, Romania’s public controversies surrounding Mircea Eliade’s fascist past, and the attacks on the alleged “Jewish monopoly of suffering” which equate the Holocaust with the Soviet Gulag.

我还想到了其他类似的例子：瓦文萨被指责曾与秘密警察勾结，罗马尼亚的公众激烈争论米尔恰·伊利亚德曾为法西斯效力的过去，还有对所谓“犹太人承受了所有痛苦”的观点的攻击几乎等同于对苏联劳改营内发生的大屠杀的言论的攻击。


Friedrich Nietzsche said that if you look in the eye of the Devil for too long, you risk becoming a devil yourself.

尼采曾说过如果你盯着恶魔的眼睛时间太久，你自己也可能成为恶魔。


A Bolshevik anticommunism, similar in its dogmatism to communism itself, has from time to time run riot in parts of Eastern Europe.

布尔什维克的反共产主义，与对共产主义本身的教条主义相似，在东欧的各个地区一再地肆虐。


In country after country, that Manichean mindset, with its oversimplifications and manipulations, was merely re-fashioned to serve the new people in power.

在一个接一个的国家，这种要么过于简单化要么进行操纵的二元论心态只不过是重新粉饰来为掌权的新一代服务而已。


Opportunism has had its share in this, of course.

当然在这其中也有机会主义的成分。


In 1945, when the Red Army occupied Romania, the Communist Party had no more than 1,000 members; in 1989, it had almost four million.

当红军于1945年占领罗马尼亚时，共产党的党员还不满1000人；但是在1989年，这一数字达到了将近400万。


One day after Nicolae Ceausescu’s execution, most of these people suddenly became fierce anticommunists and victims of the system they had served for decades.

在处决了齐奥塞斯库后，这些人中的大部分突然变成了激烈的反共产主义者以及他们曾服务了几十年的那个体制的受害者。


Residual traces of totalitarian thinking can also be found in the hostility to former dissidents like Adam Michnik or Václav Havel, both of whom argued that the new democracies should not exploit resentments or seek revenge, as the totalitarian state did, but instead build a new national consensus to structure and empower a genuine civil society.

极权主义思维的残留痕迹依然可以在对亚当·米利尼克或瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔等前持不同政见者的敌意上看到，他们两人都主张新的民主政府不应该像极权主义国家那样制造怨恨或寻求报复，而是应该努力使整个国家一致投入到建设真正的文明社会中来。


Former generals of the secret police and members of the Communist nomenklatura, untouchable in their comfortable villas and retirements, must derive great pleasure from watching today’s witch hunts and manipulation of old files for immediate political purposes.

秘密警察的前任将军以及共产主义党国精英的成员，毫发无损地生活在他们舒适的别墅里过着自由自在的退休生活，在看到今天出于一时的政治目的而进行的政治迫害和对旧档案的操纵时一定会感到非常高兴。


But the case of Kundera appears different – though no less disturbing.

但是昆德拉的这件事似乎有所不同，尽管同样令人不安。


In 1950, Kundera, then a 20-year-old Communist, reportedly denounced to the criminal police as a Western spy a man he had never met – a friend of his friend’s girlfriend.

在1950年，当时还只是一个20岁的共产党员的昆德拉被报道说向刑警告密，称一位他从未谋面的人是一个西方间谍，那个人是他朋友的女朋友的一位朋友。


The man was later brutally interrogated in a former Gestapo torture facility and spent 14 years in prison.

那个人后来在前盖世太保的刑讯室里遭到了残忍的审问，后来被关押了14年。


Kundera’s name was contained in the investigating officer’s report, which was authenticated after a respected historian discovered it in a dusty Prague archive.

昆德拉的名字出现在了调查官员的报告中，一位受人敬重的历史学家在翻阅了尘封在布拉格的档案后对此予以了证实。


The reclusive Kundera, who immigrated to Paris in 1975, has declared that “it never happened.”

1975年移民到巴黎、现在过着隐居生活的昆德拉宣称“这件事从未发生过 ” 。


Moreover, Czechoslovakia’s fearsome secret police, who had every interest in silencing or compromising the famous dissident writer, never used the incident to blackmail or expose him.

此外，捷克斯洛伐克可怕的秘密警察，他们曾采取各种手段是著名的持不同政见的作家闭嘴或者妥协，却从未利用这一事件来讹诈或揭露昆德拉。


Until more information is forthcoming, both from Kundera and from the authorities, the case will not be solved “beyond reasonable doubt.”

在昆德拉本人和政府当局提供更多的信息之前，这件事不可能使人们不“产生合理的怀疑 ” 。


But if it happened, the case calls for a deeper reflection.

但是如果它真发生过，这件事将呼唤我们进行更深层次的思索。