{"en": "1929 or 1989?", "zh": "1929年还是1989年?", "index": 0}
{"en": "PARIS – As the economic crisis deepens and widens, the world has been searching for historical analogies to help us understand what has been happening.", "zh": "巴黎-随着经济危机不断加深和蔓延，整个世界一直在寻找历史上的类似事件希望有助于我们了解目前正在发生的情况。", "index": 1}
{"en": "At the start of the crisis, many people likened it to 1982 or 1973, which was reassuring, because both dates refer to classical cyclical downturns.", "zh": "一开始，很多人把这次危机比作1982年或1973年所发生的情况，这样得类比是令人宽心的，因为这两段时期意味着典型的周期性衰退。", "index": 2}
{"en": "Today, the mood is much grimmer, with references to 1929 and 1931 beginning to abound, even if some governments continue to behave as if the crisis was more classical than exceptional.", "zh": "如今人们的心情却是沉重多了，许多人开始把这次危机与1929年和1931年相比，即使一些国家政府的表现仍然似乎把视目前的情况为是典型的而看见的衰退。", "index": 3}
{"en": "The tendency is either excessive restraint (Europe) or a diffusion of the effort (the United States).", "zh": "目前的趋势是，要么是过度的克制（欧洲 ） ， 要么是努力的扩展（美国 ） 。", "index": 4}
{"en": "Europe is being cautious in the name of avoiding debt and defending the euro, whereas the US has moved on many fronts in order not to waste an ideal opportunity to implement badly needed structural reforms.", "zh": "欧洲在避免债务和捍卫欧元的名义下正变得谨慎，而美国已经在许多方面行动起来，以利用这一理想的时机来实行急需的结构性改革。", "index": 5}
{"en": "For geo-strategists, however, the year that naturally comes to mind, in both politics and economics, is 1989.", "zh": "然而，作为地域战略学家，无论是从政治意义还是从经济意义上，让我自然想到的年份是1989年。", "index": 6}
{"en": "Of course, the fall of the house of Lehman Brothers has nothing to do with the fall of the Berlin Wall.", "zh": "当然，雷曼兄弟公司的倒闭和柏林墙的倒塌没有任何关系。", "index": 7}
{"en": "Indeed, on the surface it seems to be its perfect antithesis: the collapse of a wall symbolizing oppression and artificial divisions versus the collapse of a seemingly indestructible and reassuring institution of financial capitalism.", "zh": "事实上，从表面上看，两者似乎是完全是相反的：一个是象征着压抑和人为分裂的柏林墙的倒塌，而另一个是看似坚不可摧的并令人安心的金融资本主义机构的倒塌。", "index": 8}
{"en": "Yet 2008-2009, like 1989, may very well correspond to an epochal change, whose unfolding consequences will be felt for decades.", "zh": "然而，和1989年一样，2008-2009年很可能也能被视为一个划时代的改变，其带来的发人深省的后果将在几十年后仍能让我们感受得到。", "index": 9}
{"en": "The end of the East-West ideological divide and the end of absolute faith in markets are historical turning points.", "zh": "东西方意识形态鸿沟的结束，以及对市场绝对信心的后果，都是历史的转折点。", "index": 10}
{"en": "And what happens in 2009 may jeopardize some of the positive results of 1989, including the peaceful reunification of Europe and the triumph of democratic principles over nationalist, if not xenophobic, tendencies.", "zh": "而2009年所发生的事情可能会威胁1989年革命所带来的积极成果，包括欧洲的和平统一和民主制度战胜了民族主义倾向，如果不是恐外倾向的话。", "index": 11}
{"en": "In 1989, liberal democracy triumphed over the socialist ideology incarnated and promoted by the Soviet Bloc.", "zh": "1989年，自由民主战胜了由苏联集团具体化并推崇的社会主义意识形态。", "index": 12}
{"en": "For many of his supporters, it was President Ronald Reagan who, with his deliberate escalation of the arms race, pushed the Soviet economy to the brink, thereby fully demonstrating the superiority of liberal societies and free markets.", "zh": "对于里根总统的许多的支持者来说，就是他精心策划的军备竞赛的升级，把苏联经济推向了崩溃的边缘，从而充分显示了自由社会和自由市场的优越性。", "index": 13}
{"en": "Of course, there are obvious differences between 1989 and now.", "zh": "当然，现在的情况和1989年的情况明显不同了。", "index": 14}
{"en": "First, and perhaps above all, the revolutions of 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union put an end to global bipolarity.", "zh": "首先，也许是最重要的，1989年的革命和随后的苏联解体结束了全球的两极化。", "index": 15}
{"en": "By contrast, 2009 is likely to pave the way to a new form of bipolarity, but with China substituting for the Soviet Union.", "zh": "与此相反，2009年很可能会为一种新的两极化形式铺平道路，只是中国取代了苏联。", "index": 16}
{"en": "Second, whereas democracy and market capitalism appeared as clear – if more fragile than expected – winners in 1989, it is difficult in 2009, with the spread of the global crisis, to distinguish winners from losers.", "zh": "其二，民主制度和市场资本主义，或许要比预期的要脆弱些，看来确实是当时的赢家。", "index": 17}
{"en": "Everyone seems to be a loser, even if some are more affected than others.", "zh": "而在2009年，随着全球危机的蔓延，却很难区分赢家和输家；每个人似乎都是输家，即使有些国家比其它国家受到的影响更大。", "index": 18}
{"en": "Yet, history is unfair, and the US, despite its greater responsibility for today’s global crisis, may emerge in better shape than most countries from the morass.", "zh": "而历史是不公平的。 尽管美国要为当今的全球危机负更大的责任，但美国可能会比大多数国家以更良好的势态走出困境。", "index": 19}
{"en": "In better shape, but not alone.", "zh": "美国会恢复得更好，但并不是唯一能恢复的国家。", "index": 20}
{"en": "As a visiting professor at Harvard and MIT, I am getting a good preview of what the world could look like when the crisis finally passes.", "zh": "作为哈佛大学和麻省理工学院的访问教授，我能看到危机过后的世界是什么样子的。", "index": 21}
{"en": "One senses something like the making of an American-Asian dominated universe.", "zh": "我们能感受到一个美国和亚洲占主导地位的世界正在形成。", "index": 22}
{"en": "From the incredible media lab at MIT to the mathematics and economics departments at Harvard, Asians – Chinese and Indians, in particular – are everywhere, like the Romans in Athens in the first century BC: full of admiration for those from whom they were learning so much, and whom they would overcome in the coming decades.", "zh": "从一流的麻省理工学院的媒体实验室到哈佛大学的数学和经济系，亚洲人-尤其是中国和印度人-到处都是，犹如公元前一世纪在雅典的罗马人一样：他们对那里学到太多东西的人们充满了敬佩，而他们将在今后几十年打败他们学习的对象。", "index": 23}
{"en": "But before this new order appears, the world may be faced with spreading disorder, if not outright chaos.", "zh": "但是，在这一新秩序的出现之前，世界可能会面临更广泛的混沌，如果不是彻底的混乱的话。", "index": 24}
{"en": "What, for example, will happen to a country as central and vulnerable as Egypt when hundred of thousands of Egyptians working in the Gulf are forced to return to their homeland as a result of the crisis in the oil-producing countries?", "zh": "例如，对埃及这样一个重要而又脆弱的国家，有数十万的埃及人曾在海湾工作但现在因石油生产国出现的危机而被迫返回了自己的家园，那埃及会发生什么情况呢？", "index": 25}
{"en": "When the rich get less rich, the poor get poorer.", "zh": "当富人不再那么富了，穷人就会更穷。", "index": 26}
{"en": "And what about the foreign workers who have reached for the “European dream” and are now faced with potential explosions of xenophobia in Europe’s supposedly open countries?", "zh": "还有，对于那些追求“欧洲梦”的外来工人，现在他们面临着理应是开放的欧洲国家的仇外心态可能的爆发，他们会有怎样的遭遇？", "index": 27}
{"en": "The consequences of 1989 ended up being less enduring than many observers, including me, would have assumed.", "zh": "1989年革命所带来的成果，最后没有包括我在内许多观察家所想象的那么持久。", "index": 28}
{"en": "We can only hope that, in the end, the consequences of 2009 similarly prove to be far less dramatic than we now – intuitively and in our historical reflexes – feel them to be.", "zh": "我们只能希望2009年的危机同样地最后被证明是远远低于我们现在以直觉和历史回顾的方式��感觉到的那么剧烈。", "index": 29}
{"en": "One Hundred Years of Ineptitude", "zh": "百年愚顽", "index": 30}
{"en": "BERLIN – The global financial and economic crisis that began in 2008 was the greatest economic stress-test since the Great Depression, and the greatest challenge to social and political systems since World War II.", "zh": "柏林 — — 2008年爆发的全球金融和经济危机是自大萧条以来最严峻的一次经济压力测试，也是自二战以来社会和政治制度所面临的最严重挑战。", "index": 31}
{"en": "It not only put financial markets and currencies at risk; it also exposed serious regulatory and governance shortcomings that have yet to be fully addressed.", "zh": "它不仅对金融市场和货币构成威胁；而且还暴露了迄今为止都无法完全解决的严重的监管和治理缺陷。", "index": 32}
{"en": "In fact, the 2008 crisis will most likely be remembered as a watershed moment, but not because it led to reforms that strengthened economic resilience and removed vulnerabilities.", "zh": "事实上，2008年危机极有可能被视为一座分水岭，但却并非因为它导致了强化经济弹性和消除经济弱点的改革而永久留在人们的记忆当中。", "index": 33}
{"en": "On the contrary, leaders’ failure to discern, much less act on, the lessons of the Great Recession may open the way for a series of fresh crises, economic and otherwise, in the coming decades.", "zh": "相反，领导人未能汲取大萧条的教训，更不用说为此采取相应的预防对策可能引发未来几十年一系列新的经济和其他危机。", "index": 34}
{"en": "However serious those crises turn out to be, historians a century from now will likely despair at our shortsightedness.", "zh": "无论这些危机有多严重，一个世纪后的历史学家都极有可能绝望于我们的短视。", "index": 35}
{"en": "They will note that analysts and regulators were narrowly focused on fixing the financial system by strengthening national oversight regimes.", "zh": "他们将会看到，分析人士和监管机构通过强化国家监管机制，仅仅是狭隘地专注于修复金融体系。", "index": 36}
{"en": "While this was a worthy goal, historians will point out, it was far from the only imperative.", "zh": "尽管这一目标并非全无价值，但就像历史学家们所指出的那样，这绝不是唯一一件必须要做的事。", "index": 37}
{"en": "To prepare the world to confront the challenges posed by globalization and technological development in a way that supports sustainable and equitable growth, governance institutions and regulations at both the national and international levels must be drastically improved.", "zh": "为使世界能够以确保可持续及平衡增长的方式来应对全球化和技术进步所带来的挑战，就必须对国内和国际两级治理机构和制度进行大规模升级。", "index": 38}
{"en": "Yet not nearly enough has been invested in this effort.", "zh": "但目前这方面的投入还远远不够。", "index": 39}
{"en": "Beyond regional bodies like the European Union, international financial governance has remained largely untouched.", "zh": "除欧盟等地区机构外，国际金融治理机构基本仍未受到波及。", "index": 40}
{"en": "Worse, because the partial fixes to the financial system will enable even more globalization, they will end up making matters worse, as strain on already-inadequate governance and regulatory frameworks increases, not only in finance, but also in other economic and technological fields.", "zh": "更糟的是，因为部分修复金融体系将会带来进一步全球化，这些举措最终会恶化现有问题，因为此举不仅在金融、而且在其他经济和技术领域增加了对本已欠缺的治理和监管框架的压力。", "index": 41}
{"en": "Meanwhile, enormous financial investments focused on securing a higher rate of return are likely to fuel technological innovation, further stressing regulatory systems in finance and beyond.", "zh": "此外，专注于提高回报率的巨额金融投资很有可能会推动技术创新，并由此进一步加大对金融和其他监管体系所造成的压力。", "index": 42}
{"en": "Major technological advances fueled by cheap money can cause markets to change so fast that policy and institutional change cannot keep up.", "zh": "廉价资金推动的重大技术创新可以令市场变化速度快到政策和机构变化均无法适应。", "index": 43}
{"en": "And new markets can emerge that offer huge payoffs for early adopters or investors, who benefit from remaining several steps ahead of national and international regulators.", "zh": "同时新市场的出现可以为早期进入者或投资者带来巨大的回报，并使他们可以持续受益于相对国内及国际监管机构的领先。", "index": 44}
{"en": "This is what happened in the run-up to the 2008 crisis.", "zh": "这恰恰符合2008年危机爆发之前的情况。", "index": 45}
{"en": "New technology-enabled financial instruments created opportunities for some to make huge amounts of money.", "zh": "新技术支持的金融工具为某些人赚取巨额利润创造了机遇。", "index": 46}
{"en": "But regulators were unable to keep up with the innovations, which ended up generating risks that affected the entire economy.", "zh": "但监管机构却无法跟上创新的步伐，并最终酿成了影响整体经济的风险。", "index": 47}
{"en": "This points to a fundamental difference between global crises of the twenty-first century and, say, the Great Depression in the 1930s or, indeed, any past stock-market crashes.", "zh": "这体现出21世纪的全球危机与20世纪30年代大萧条或过去任何一次股市崩盘之间的根本区别。", "index": 48}
{"en": "Because of the financial sector’s growth, more actors benefit from under-regulation and weak governance in the short term, making today’s crises more difficult to prevent.", "zh": "金融行业持续增长导致更多参与主体从短期监管不足和治理薄弱中获益，从而使人们更加难以预防现在的危机。", "index": 49}
{"en": "Complicating matters further, the systems affected by today’s crises extend well beyond any one regulatory body’s jurisdiction.", "zh": "令问题更加复杂的是，受当前危机影响的系统远远超过任何一个监管机构的监管范围。", "index": 50}
{"en": "That makes crises far unrulier, and their consequences – including their long-term influence on societies and politics – more difficult to predict.", "zh": "这导致危机变得更加凶险，并导致人们更加难以对危机所产生后果 — — 包括社会和政治领域的长期后果 — — 进行预判。", "index": 51}
{"en": "The next crises – made more likely by rising nationalism and a growing disregard for science and fact-based policymaking – may be financial, but they could also implicate realms as varied as migration, trade, cyberspace, pollution, and climate change.", "zh": "下一次危机 — — 因为民族主义情绪抬头和人们越来越无视基于科学和事实的决策而变得可能性愈来愈大 — — 可能涉及金融，但也可能涉及移民、贸易、网络空间、污染和气候变化等诸多领域。", "index": 52}
{"en": "In all of these areas, national and international governance institutions are weak or incomplete, and there are few independent actors, such as watchdog groups, demanding transparency and accountability.", "zh": "在上述所有领域，国内和国际治理机构都力量薄弱或覆盖不完善，而且严重缺乏要求透明度和问责制的监督组织等独立行动主体。", "index": 53}
{"en": "This makes it harder not only to prevent crises – not least because it creates opportunities for actors to game the system and shirk responsibility – but also to respond to them.", "zh": "这不仅加大了预防危机的难度 — — 尤其因为它为参与者提供了钻空子和逃避责任的机会 — — 还使得人们越来越难以采取措施来应对危机。", "index": 54}
{"en": "The 2008 crisis cast a harsh spotlight on just how bad we are at responding quickly to disasters, especially those fueled by fragmented governance.", "zh": "2008年危机暴露出我们在面对灾难时的快速反应有多么薄弱，尤其当造成灾难的主要原因是分散治理。", "index": 55}
{"en": "To be sure, as the Hertie School’s 2018 Governance Report shows, there have been some improvements in preparing for and managing crises.", "zh": "可以肯定，就像2018年赫蒂学院治理报告所表明的那样，人类在准备应对和管理危机方面取得了一定的进展。", "index": 56}
{"en": "But we must become more alert to how developments in a wide range of fields – from finance to digital technologies and climate change – can elude the governance capacities of national and international institutions.", "zh": "但我们必须警惕更广泛领域的发展 — — 从金融到数字技术再到气候变化 — — 是以何种方式来规避国内和国际机构的治理监管。", "index": 57}
{"en": "We should be running crisis scenarios and preparing emergency plans for upheaval in all of these fields, and taking stronger steps to mitigate risks, including by managing debt levels, which today remain much higher in the advanced economies than they were before the 2008 crisis.", "zh": "我们应当在上述所有领域进行危机情景预演并制定危机爆发之际的紧急计划，同时采取包括管理债务水平等更强有力的措施来降低风险，今天发达经济体的债务水平均远高于2008年危机爆发之前。", "index": 58}
{"en": "Moreover, we should ensure that we provide international institutions with the needed resources and responsibilities.", "zh": "此外，我们应当确保赋予国际机构必要的监管责任和资源。", "index": 59}
{"en": "And by punishing those who exacerbate risks for the sake of their own interests, we would strengthen the legitimacy of global governance and the institutions that are meant to conduct it.", "zh": "通过对那些因为自身利益而加剧风险的人进行惩戒，我们可以强化全球治理及其责任落实机构的合法地位。", "index": 60}
{"en": "As it stands, inadequate cross-border coordination and enforcement of international agreements is a major impediment to crisis prevention and management.", "zh": "目前，跨境协调和国际协定落实不充分是危机预防和管理的主要障碍。", "index": 61}
{"en": "Yet, far from addressing this weakness, the world is reviving an outdated model of national sovereignty that makes crises of various kinds more likely.", "zh": "但世界各国正在重新兴起过时的国家主权模式不但没有解决这个问题，而且增大了各种危机的爆发风险。", "index": 62}
{"en": "Unless we change course soon, the world of 2118 will have much reason to regard us with scorn.", "zh": "除非我们尽快改变方向，否则2118年的世界将有足够的理由来鄙视我们。", "index": 63}
{"en": "What Failed in 2008?", "zh": "2008年败在何处？", "index": 64}
{"en": "BERKELEY – To solve a problem, it is not enough to know what to do.", "zh": "伯克利—要解决问题，光知道做什么是不够的。", "index": 65}
{"en": "You actually have to implement the solution – and be willing to change course if it turns out that you did not know quite as much as you thought.", "zh": "你实际上必须实施解决办法 — — 并且在事实证明你知道的并不如你认为的那样多时，你得愿意改变办法。", "index": 66}
{"en": "That is the message of two recent books that, together, tell you everything you need to know about the 2008 financial crisis: what caused it, what can be done to prevent it from recurring, and why those things have yet to be done.", "zh": "这就是两本新书一起告诉你的信息。 这两本新书讲述了你需要知道的关于2008年金融危机的一切：什么引起了金融危机，可以做什么防止它再次发生，以及为何这些事情还没有人去做。", "index": 67}
{"en": "The first book is The Shifts and the Shocks, by the conservative British journalist Martin Wolf, who begins by cataloguing the major shifts that set the stage for the economic disaster that continues to shape the world today.", "zh": "第一本书是《变化和冲击 》 （ The Shifts and the Shocks ） ， 作者是保守派英国记者马丁·沃尔夫（Martin Wolf ） 。 在书的开头，他对酝酿了至今仍在影响世界的这场经济灾难的重要变化做了归纳编目。", "index": 68}
{"en": "His starting point is the huge rise in wealth among the world’s richest 0.1% and 0.01% and the consequent pressure for people, governments, and companies to take on increasingly unsustainable levels of debt.", "zh": "首先，他指出世界最富有的0.1%和0.01%人群财富剧增，这给人民、政府和公司造成了日益不可持续的高负债的压力。", "index": 69}
{"en": "Meanwhile, policymakers were lulled into complacency by the widespread acceptance of economic theories such as the “efficient-market hypothesis,” which assumes that investors act rationally and use all available information when making their decisions.", "zh": "与此同时，决策者因为“有效市场假说”等经济理论的广泛接受而志得意满，有效市场假说认为投资者的行为是理性的，在作出决策时会利用一切可获得的信心。", "index": 70}
{"en": "As a result, markets were deregulated, making it easier to trade assets that were perceived to be safe, but were in fact not.", "zh": "结果，市场监管被放松，交易被认为安全但实际并不安全的资产变得更加容易。", "index": 71}
{"en": "As a result, systemic risk proliferated beyond central bankers’ wildest imagination.", "zh": "结果，系统性风险悄然酝酿，并且超过了央行官员最大胆的想象。", "index": 72}
{"en": "Untested – and ultimately incorrect – assumptions created a policymaking environment defined by what can only be called hubris.", "zh": "未受检验并且最终错误的假设形成了一个只能用狂妄自大形容的决策环境。", "index": 73}
{"en": "Officials underestimated tail risks.", "zh": "官员低估了尾部风险。", "index": 74}
{"en": "They set inflation targets at around 2% – leaving little room for maneuver when the water got choppy.", "zh": "它们将通胀目标设定在2%左右 — — 这意味着当波涛汹涌时他们根本没有多少施展空间。", "index": 75}
{"en": "And, most audaciously of all, the European Union introduced the euro as a common currency.", "zh": "此外，最大胆的动作要数欧盟引入欧元作为共同货币。", "index": 76}
{"en": "Indeed, wrongheaded policymaking continued long after the crisis began.", "zh": "事实上，方向错误的决策在危机开始后仍然能维持了很长时间。", "index": 77}
{"en": "Politicians responded to worsening economic conditions by hewing as closely as possible to failed prescriptions, making sure to do no more than absolutely necessary to address the biggest economic disaster since the Great Depression.", "zh": "政客对恶化的经济条件的反应是坚定实施错误的药方，对于这场大萧条以来最严重的经济灾难，他们除了绝对需要做的事情意外什么都不做。", "index": 78}
{"en": "Wolf’s prescription for countering the crisis is simple, smart, and unassailable.", "zh": "沃尔夫给抵御这场危机开出的药方简单、明智并且无懈可击。", "index": 79}
{"en": "In the short term, he suggests that countries with reserve currencies spend more (especially to finance public-sector investments) and issue more debt.", "zh": "在短期，他建议拥有储备货币的国家增加支出（特别是公共部门投资融资 ） 、 发行更多债务。", "index": 80}
{"en": "Their central banks, he argues, should raise inflation targets to 3% or even 4% per year.", "zh": "他指出，这些国家的央行应该将通胀目标提高到每年3%甚至4 % 。", "index": 81}
{"en": "Over the medium term, according to Wolf, countries need to put in place regulatory measures that lower debt levels and discourage overleveraging.", "zh": "在中期，沃尔夫认为各国需要实施监管措施降低债务水平、阻止过度举债。", "index": 82}
{"en": "The eurozone, too, must resolve its internal contradictions, either by disbanding or by introducing “a minimum set of institutions and policies” that allow the monetary union to function properly.", "zh": "欧元区也必须解决其内部矛盾，要么通过解散欧元区实现，要么通过引入能令货币联盟正常运行的“最小限度的机构和政策组合”实现。", "index": 83}
{"en": "Wolf’s long-term solutions include tackling inequality, “more global regulation,” a greater degree of “freedom for individual countries to craft their own responses,” and economic analysis that is less in thrall to the free-market ideologues that led us into the crisis in the first place.", "zh": "沃尔夫的长期解决方案包括遏制不平等 、 “ 更加全球化的监管 ” 、 更大程度的“个体国家自己决定反应方式的自由”以及更少受到自由市场思想束缚的经济分析。 一开始正是自由市场思想让我们陷入了危机。", "index": 84}
{"en": "And yet, as recommendable as Wolf’s proposals may be, little has been done to implement them.", "zh": "但是，尽管沃尔夫的方案值得推荐，但几乎没有任何实施。", "index": 85}
{"en": "The reasons why are found in the second book: Hall of Mirrors, by my friend, teacher, and patron, Barry Eichengreen.", "zh": "原因可以从第二本书中找到：由我的朋友、老师和“老板”巴里·艾肯格林（Barry Eichengreen）所著的《镜厅 》 （ Hall of Mirrors ） 。", "index": 86}
{"en": "Eichengreen traces our tepid response to the crisis to the triumph of monetarist economists, the disciples of Milton Friedman, over their Keynesian and Minskyite peers – at least when it comes to interpretations of the causes and consequences of the Great Depression.", "zh": "艾肯格林认为，我们对这场危机反应不温不火，原因要追溯到作为弗里德曼（MiltonFriedman）门徒的���币经济学家对凯恩斯主义和明斯基（MInskyite）主义同行的胜利 — — 至少在解释大萧条的原因和后果方面是如此。", "index": 87}
{"en": "When the 2008 financial crisis erupted, policymakers tried to apply Friedman’s proposed solutions to the Great Depression.", "zh": "2008年金融危机爆发时，决策者试图使用弗里德曼提出的大萧条方案。", "index": 88}
{"en": "Unfortunately, this turned out to be the wrong thing to do, as the monetarist interpretation of the Great Depression was, to put it bluntly, wrong in significant respects and radically incomplete.", "zh": "不幸的是，事实证明这是错的，直言不讳地说，货币主义者对大萧条的解释在众多方面都是错误的，并且非常不完整。", "index": 89}
{"en": "The resulting policies were enough to prevent the post-2008 recession from developing into a full-blown depression; but that partial success turned out to be a Pyrrhic victory, for it allowed politicians to declare that the crisis had been overcome, and that it was time to embrace austerity and focus on structural reform.", "zh": "由此产生的政策足以阻止2008年后的衰退演变为完全的萧条；但这一局部成功的代价也是巨大的，它让政客宣布危机已经被克服，应该采取紧缩并专注于结构改革。", "index": 90}
{"en": "The result is today’s stagnant economy, marked by anemic growth that threatens to become the new normal.", "zh": "结果就是现在的经济停滞，其特征是增长无力并且随时可能成为新常态。", "index": 91}
{"en": "The United States and Europe are on track to have thrown away 10% of their potential wealth, while the failure to strengthen financial-sector regulation has left the world economy exposed to the risk of another major crisis.", "zh": "美国和欧洲损失了10%的潜在财富，而没有强化金融部门监管让世界经济随时可能迎来新一场大危机。", "index": 92}
{"en": "Wolf and Eichengreen would agree that the main shortcomings that led to the 2008 financial crisis – and that continue to underpin our inadequate response to it – are intellectual.", "zh": "沃尔夫和艾肯格林会认为，导致2008年金融危机的主要缺陷 — — 以及继续破坏我们对危机的不充分反应的主要缺陷 — — 是知识缺陷。", "index": 93}
{"en": "Indeed, the only true lesson of the crisis so far seems to be that its lessons will never truly be learned.", "zh": "事实上，到目前为止，危机的唯一真正教训是它的教训从未被真正汲取。", "index": 94}
{"en": "A Comeback Strategy for Europe", "zh": "欧洲的重振战略", "index": 95}
{"en": "STOCKHOLM/MADRID – When Pope Francis addressed the European Parliament last November, he compared the European Union to a grandmother – pleasant and rich with experience, but lacking the vitality and energy of the past.", "zh": "斯托克霍姆/马德里—去年11月，教皇方济各在其欧洲议会演讲中将欧盟比作祖母 — — 和蔼而富于经验，但已不再有过去的活力和能量。", "index": 96}
{"en": "It is high time, Francis argued, that EU leaders shed their dozy image, recognize the strategic challenges that Europe faces, and forge a clear policy for tackling them.", "zh": "方济各说，现在是一个关键时刻，欧盟领导人必须摆脱懈怠形象，承认欧洲所面临的战略挑战，并构建应对挑战的明确政策。", "index": 97}
{"en": "Admittedly, the pope’s characterization was alarmingly accurate in some respects.", "zh": "诚然，教皇的描述在某些角度讲非常准确。", "index": 98}
{"en": "But, despite its seeming lassitude, Europe retains significant strengths.", "zh": "但是，尽管欧洲看起来疲态尽露，但仍拥有巨大优势。", "index": 99}
{"en": "It is a hub of high-level thought and innovation; it is home to some of the world’s most competitive regions and industries; and, perhaps most impressive, it has built a community and market encompassing a half-billion people.", "zh": "欧洲是高水平思想和创新的枢纽；是世界最有竞争力地区和产业的所在地；最重要的是，它还构建了一个由五亿人组成的社会和市场。", "index": 100}
{"en": "But the world is changing: the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly influencing global developments, economic and otherwise.", "zh": "但世界正在变化：亚太地区正在日益影响全球经济和其他发展趋势。", "index": 101}
{"en": "The Trans-Pacific Partnership – by which the United States and 11 other countries would create a mega-regional free-trade zone – would most likely accelerate this shift (all the more so if China eventually joins).", "zh": "跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP，由美国和其他11国建立的巨型地区自由贸易区）很有可能加速这一变革（如果中国最终也能加入就更加如此了 ） 。", "index": 102}
{"en": "Though the TPP faces no shortage of hurdles to clear before an agreement is finalized, its potential to augment Asia’s economic power cannot be underestimated.", "zh": "尽管TPP距离最终完成协议还有很多障碍需要跨越，但其扩大亚洲经济实力的潜力绝不容���觑。", "index": 103}
{"en": "Europe must work to secure its position in the new world order – beginning by enhancing its own trade and investment ties with the US.", "zh": "欧洲必须致力于确保其在新世界秩序中的地位 — — 首先要强化其自身与美国的贸易和投资联系。", "index": 104}
{"en": "The problem is that, as the TPP negotiations progress, talks on the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have become so deeply mired in domestic controversies that the entire project may well be scuttled.", "zh": "在TPP谈判不断推进的同时，欧盟-美国跨大西洋贸易和投资伙伴关系（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership，TTIP）谈判却深陷国内矛盾的掣肘，整个工程都有可能夭折。", "index": 105}
{"en": "Business leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are convinced that a successful TTIP agreement would bring substantial economic benefits – a perception that many studies reinforce.", "zh": "大西洋两岸的商业领袖相信，成功的TTIP协议将带来巨大的经济收益 — — 许多研究都强化了这一感觉。", "index": 106}
{"en": "Yet trivial issues – for example, the use of chlorinated chicken and settlements of investor disputes – continue to dominate the debate.", "zh": "但一些微妙的问题 — — 比如“氯化鸡 ” （ 欧洲怀疑美国鸡肉进入市场前都用氯消毒）和投资者纠纷和解等问题 — — 仍主导着争论。", "index": 107}
{"en": "The TTIP’s goal is to unleash the power of the transatlantic economy, which remains by far the world’s largest and wealthiest market, accounting for three-quarters of global financial activity and more than half of world trade.", "zh": "TTIP的目标是释放跨大西洋经济的力量 — — 目前大西洋两岸仍是世界最大最富有的市场，占全球金融活动的四分之三和世界贸易量的一大半。", "index": 108}
{"en": "(If the TTIP was opened to other economies – such as Turkey, Mexico, and Canada – the benefits would be even greater.)", "zh": "（如果TTIP向其他经济体开放 — — 比如土耳其、墨西哥和加拿大 — — 则收益还将更大。 ）", "index": 109}
{"en": "Even more compelling than the benefits of achieving an agreement, though, are the potentially catastrophic consequences of failure.", "zh": "但是，比达成协议的好处更加让人感到必须成功的是谈判失败可能带来的灾难性结果。", "index": 110}
{"en": "For starters, a breakdown of TTIP talks would give considerable ammunition to those in the United Kingdom who advocate withdrawal from the EU; conversely, if the TTIP were implemented, the UK would be unwise – and thus unlikely – to leave.", "zh": "首先，TTIP谈判的破裂将极大地加强英国鼓吹离开欧盟阵营的力量；反之，如果TTIP获得实施，英国离开欧盟将是不明智之举，因此也不会发生。", "index": 111}
{"en": "Moreover, the perception that the EU’s internal squabbles had led it to squander a strategic opportunity would probably drive the US to accelerate its disengagement from the continent.", "zh": "此外，欧洲的内讧导致其白白浪费了一个战略机会，这一感觉可能促使美国加速远离欧洲。", "index": 112}
{"en": "And Russian President Vladimir Putin would invariably regard the EU’s failure as a major opportunity to exert more influence over parts of Europe.", "zh": "而俄罗斯总统普京也必然会将欧洲的失败视为影响欧洲更多地区的良机。", "index": 113}
{"en": "All of this contributes to a starkly fundamental strategic risk: If the TTIP stalls or collapses, while the TPP moves forward and succeeds, the global balance will tip strongly in Asia’s favor – and Europe will have few options, if any, for regaining its economic and geopolitical influence.", "zh": "所有这些凸显出一个根本新战略风险：如果TTIP无法取得进展或失败，而TPP取得进展并成功，则全球平衡将朝着极有利于亚洲的方向发展 — — 欧洲极有可能无法重振其经济和地缘政治影响力。", "index": 114}
{"en": "When the TTIP was first proposed, Europe seemed to recognize its value.", "zh": "TTIP首次提出时，欧洲似乎能够认识到其价值。", "index": 115}
{"en": "Indeed, it was the EU that pushed the US, which initially doubted Europe’s commitment, to launch the negotiation process in June 2013.", "zh": "事实上，是欧洲推动一开始对欧洲的承诺有所怀疑的美国在2013年6月启动了谈判程序。", "index": 116}
{"en": "The ambition was to complete the negotiations on “one tank of gas.”", "zh": "当时人们雄心万丈，意图“一鼓作气”完成谈判。", "index": 117}
{"en": "No one wanted to endure protracted talks – or the associated political pain.", "zh": "没人想让谈判长久拖延 — — 或忍受因此带来的政治痛苦。", "index": 118}
{"en": "But EU leaders essentially abandoned the project, seemingly confirming American fears.", "zh": "但欧盟领导人在事实上抛弃了这一工程，而这也印证了美国的担心。", "index": 119}
{"en": "Trade negotiators struggled to make headway, while anti-globalization groups seized control of the public discourse, presenting the TTIP as a threat to everything from Europe’s democracy to its health.", "zh": "贸易谈判在挣扎中前行，而反全球化组织掌握了公共观点的控制权，将TTIP描述为对一切事物的威胁 — — 从欧洲的民主到欧洲的健康莫不如此。", "index": 120}
{"en": "This is dangerously inaccurate talk, and EU leaders must prevent it from gaining any more traction by making the strategic case for the agreement.", "zh": "这是非常危险的错误言论，欧盟领导人必须拿出推进TTIP的战略性理由，从而阻止这一言论获得更大的市场。", "index": 121}
{"en": "And they must revive their commitment to conclude the talks successfully in 2015.", "zh": "他们还必须重振2015年成功完成谈判的承诺。", "index": 122}
{"en": "This is not to say that resolving the remaining issues in the TTIP negotiations will be simple.", "zh": "这并不是说解决TTIP谈判中仍然存在的问题轻而易举。", "index": 123}
{"en": "But establishing a trade agreement, especially one that entails so many regulatory issues, is always difficult, as it must account for the complexity and changeability of modern economies.", "zh": "但签订贸易协议，特别是包含如此多监管问题的贸易协议，永远不是件容易事，因为它必须考虑到现代经济的复杂性和易变性。", "index": 124}
{"en": "The fact is that the challenges inherent in completing the TTIP are no more intractable than those that EU leaders have faced in the last few years of crisis.", "zh": "事实上，完成TTIP所包含的挑战并不比欧盟领导人在过去几年的危机中所遇到的挑战更棘手。", "index": 125}
{"en": "When the TTIP negotiations resume next month, EU leaders must push for genuine progress, with the goal of completing a deal by the end of the year.", "zh": "TTIP谈判将在下个月重启，届时欧盟领导人必须推动真正的进展，并以在年底完成协议为目标。", "index": 126}
{"en": "The good news is that the recent midterm elections in the US might have improved their chances.", "zh": "好消息是最近的美国中期选举有可能增加他们成功的机会。", "index": 127}
{"en": "President Barack Obama now might get so-called fast-track negotiating authority from Congress.", "zh": "现在，美国总统奥巴马可能将从国会获得所谓的快速谈判授权。", "index": 128}
{"en": "If he does, Congress would simply approve or reject any negotiated agreement, rather than picking it apart.", "zh": "果真如此的话，美国国会将对谈成的协议予以批准或否决，而不能束之高阁。", "index": 129}
{"en": "The US presidential election season is starting, and other issues in the new year could easily take over the EU agenda.", "zh": "美国总统竞选季即将来开帷幕，在新的一年里，其他问题可能轻而易举地取代欧盟日程。", "index": 130}
{"en": "That is why Europe’s leaders have no time to waste.", "zh": "正因如此，欧洲领导人已无时间可以浪费。", "index": 131}
{"en": "They must seize economic opportunity – and avert strategic disaster.", "zh": "他们必须抓住经济机会 — — 并避免战略灾难。", "index": 132}
{"en": "The Year That Ended an Epoch?", "zh": "标志着时代终结的一年？", "index": 133}
{"en": "MADRID – As 2016 comes to an end, the outlook for 2017 is shrouded in uncertainty.", "zh": "马德里 — — 随着2016年的结束，2017年的前景被不确定性所笼罩。", "index": 134}
{"en": "Tensions in the Middle East are rising, and populist movements have appeared in Europe and the United States.", "zh": "中东紧张局势正在加剧，欧洲和美国出现了民粹主义运动。", "index": 135}
{"en": "In the Middle East, the tragic conflict in Syria continues, despite several fruitless attempts at rapprochement, which were marred by the fundamental disagreement about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future role in any peace process or political transition.", "zh": "因为对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德未来在和平进程或政治过渡中所起的作用存在根本性的分歧，在几次修复关系的努力无果而终后，中东的叙利亚悲剧性冲突仍将继续下去。", "index": 136}
{"en": "Meanwhile, over the past week, Syrian government troops, backed by Russia and Iran, have retaken almost all of Aleppo – once Syria’s largest city, now utterly devastated by the war.", "zh": "此外，过去一周，叙利亚政府军在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下，已经夺回了几乎整个阿勒颇 — — 阿勒颇曾是叙利亚最大的城市，现在已经彻底毁灭在战火之中。", "index": 137}
{"en": "The world’s priority for the coming year must be to achieve peace in Syria, which will require close regional and international cooperation.", "zh": "世界各国来年的首要任务必须是通过密切的地区和国际合作来实现叙利亚和平。", "index": 138}
{"en": "On December 27, Iran, Russia, and Turkey will hold a tripartite meeting in Moscow to discuss a political solution for the Syria conflict.", "zh": "12月27日，伊朗、俄罗斯和土耳其将在莫斯科举行三方会议，探讨政治解决叙利亚冲突。", "index": 139}
{"en": "That meeting, if it takes place, is likely to be overshadowed by the fallout from the assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey.", "zh": "如果那次会议真的召开，也有可能笼罩在俄罗斯驻土耳其大使被杀的阴影当中。", "index": 140}
{"en": "But it is nothing if not surprising that these parties, and not the US and the European Union, would be negotiating such an agreement.", "zh": "最出人意料的是居然是俄、伊、土三方，而非美国和欧盟，参与谈判这样的协定。", "index": 141}
{"en": "One positive development this year came in March, when the EU and Turkey signed an agreement to address the refugee crisis.", "zh": "今年的积极进展出现在3月份，当时欧盟和土耳其就解决难民危机的协议达成。", "index": 142}
{"en": "Turkey has now taken in some three million Syrian refugees since the beginning of the conflict.", "zh": "从这次冲突开始到现在，土耳其已经接收了约300万叙利亚难民。", "index": 143}
{"en": "Although EU-Turkey relations are currently not at their best, the dialogue between the two sides must continue in 2017, not least because of their common interests, which are based not only on economic interdependence, but also on the refugee crisis and the collective fight against terrorism.", "zh": "尽管欧盟土耳其关系现在并不在历史高点，但双方必须在2017年继续对话，尤其因为双方拥有基于经济相互依存、难民危机及反恐集体斗争等诸多共同利益。", "index": 144}
{"en": "European politics next year, meanwhile, will be consumed by the Brexit negotiations.", "zh": "此外，英国退欧谈判将影响明年的欧洲政治。", "index": 145}
{"en": "In March, the United Kingdom will likely invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, triggering the formal procedure for withdrawal from the EU.", "zh": "英国或将于3月启动《里斯本条约》第五十条，从而触发退出欧盟的正式程序。", "index": 146}
{"en": "The challenge will be to reach an agreement that guarantees the wellbeing of future EU-UK relations.", "zh": "难点在于就确保未来欧盟-英国关系健康发展达成一致。", "index": 147}
{"en": "This will not be easy, and EU negotiators have already set a timeline of only 18 months.", "zh": "做到这一点绝非易事。 欧盟谈判人员已经制订了仅有18个月的时间表。", "index": 148}
{"en": "While much remains uncertain, what is clear is that if the UK wants to retain access to the European single market, it will have to accept the EU’s four freedoms, including the free movement of workers.", "zh": "虽然不确定因素仍然很多，但有一点十分明确，即如果英国想要保留单一市场准入权，就必须接受包括劳动力自由流动在内的欧盟四项自由政策。", "index": 149}
{"en": "In 2017, several European countries will hold general elections, and there is a risk that isolationist, anti-European populist movements will make a strong showing.", "zh": "有几个欧洲国家将在2017年举行大选，孤立主义者、反欧洲民粹运动或将在此期间表现强势。", "index": 150}
{"en": "For the EU to lose a country as militarily and economically important as the UK is bad enough; but to lose a founding EU member state, such as France, would be tragic.", "zh": "对欧盟而言，失去像英国这样在军事和经济上都很重要的国家无疑是一种打击；但失去法国这样的创始成员国或将酿成悲剧性的后果。", "index": 151}
{"en": "Fortunately, many Europeans’ views toward the EU actually improved in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum.", "zh": "幸运的是，许多欧洲人对欧盟的看法事实上在英国退欧公投后有改善的迹象。", "index": 152}
{"en": "But this will not lessen the challenge for EU governments in the year ahead.", "zh": "但这并不意味着欧盟政府在今后一年所面临的挑战减轻。", "index": 153}
{"en": "They must unite societies divided by powerful global forces, such as globalization and rapid technological innovation.", "zh": "他们必须重新团结被全球化和快速技术创新等强劲全球势力切割得四分五裂的社会。", "index": 154}
{"en": "The Brexit referendum, followed by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, signaled the rise of populism in the West.", "zh": "英国退欧公投、而后是唐纳德·特朗普在美国总统大选中的获胜标志着西方民粹主义势力抬头。", "index": 155}
{"en": "But now that Trump is filling his cabinet with oligarchs and former military men, we have reason to doubt that he will keep his promise to govern without the Washington “establishment.”", "zh": "但现在，特朗普正在征召寡头和前军人进入其内阁，我们有理由质疑他是否会履行自己摆脱华盛顿“建制派”进行治理的承诺。", "index": 156}
{"en": "Trump’s incoming administration is full of unknowns, but there can be no doubt that his rejection of multilateral institutions will endanger international efforts to cooperate on solutions to the world’s biggest problems.", "zh": "特朗普即将执政的新内阁充满了未知数，但毫无疑问他对多边机构的抗拒会危及合作解决全球最严重问题的工作。", "index": 157}
{"en": "This holds peril for US-EU relations.", "zh": "这必将对美国-欧盟关系构成威胁。", "index": 158}
{"en": "In previous years, the Paris climate agreement and the nuclear agreement with Iran were rays of light in a world closing itself off to multilateralism.", "zh": "过去几年，巴黎气候协议及伊朗核协议曾为这个远离多边主义的世界带来一线曙光。", "index": 159}
{"en": "In the coming years, such rays may become scarcer still.", "zh": "而在未来几年，这样的曙光会变得越来越稀有。", "index": 160}
{"en": "Now more than ever, we need the kind of dialogue that builds strategic trust between great powers.", "zh": "现在比以往任何时候都更需要在大国间建立战略互信的对话。", "index": 161}
{"en": "And yet, Trump’s statements casting doubt on continued US adherence to a “One China” policy vis-à-vis Taiwan could severely damage relations between the world’s two largest economies.", "zh": "而特朗普质疑美国是否将继续坚持“一个中国”政策的声明极有可能严重损害世界两大经济体之间的关系。", "index": 162}
{"en": "Similarly, notwithstanding the pro-Russian leanings of some among Trump’s team, the US-Russian relationship also lacks strategic trust, owing to Russia’s military intervention in Syria, its invasion of eastern Ukraine, and its alleged interference in the US election.", "zh": "同样，尽管特朗普团队不乏一定程度的亲俄倾向，但因为俄罗斯军事入侵叙利亚、东乌克兰以及干涉美国大选的指控，美俄关系同样缺乏战略互信。", "index": 163}
{"en": "The coming year will be particularly important for Europe.", "zh": "来年对欧洲而言尤其重要。", "index": 164}
{"en": "Relations between the EU and the US must remain strong, rooted in mutual respect for democracy, freedom, and human rights.", "zh": "植根于对民主、自由和人权的共同尊重，欧盟和美国之间的关系必须保持稳固。", "index": 165}
{"en": "After a turbulent 2016, and with little positive news in international politics, 2017 is shaping up to be a year of challenges and uncertainty.", "zh": "在充满动荡的2016年后，因为国际政治中几乎鲜有积极消息，2017年注定充满挑战和不确定性。", "index": 166}
{"en": "But the biggest uncertainty of all is whether this is simply the end of another year, or the end of a geopolitical epoch.", "zh": "但最大的不确定性却是2016年仅仅是又一年的结束，还是整个地缘政治时代的终结。", "index": 167}
{"en": "Another Slow Year for the Global Economy", "zh": "全球经济缓慢增长又一年", "index": 168}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Last April, the International Monetary Fund projected that the world economy would grow by 3.5% in 2015.", "zh": "华盛顿—去年4月，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测2015年世界经济将增长3.5 % 。", "index": 169}
{"en": "In the ensuing months, that forecast was steadily whittled down, reaching 3.1% in October.", "zh": "在随后的几个月中，这一预测被逐步调低，10月份时下降到3.1 % 。", "index": 170}
{"en": "But the IMF continues to insist – as it has, with almost banal predictability, for the last seven years – that next year will be better.", "zh": "但IMF仍然坚持 — — 在过去七年中它一贯如此，几乎没有什么预见性可言 — — 明年会更好。", "index": 171}
{"en": "But it is almost certainly wrong yet again.", "zh": "但几乎可以肯定，IMF又错了。", "index": 172}
{"en": "For starters, world trade is growing at an anemic annual rate of 2%, compared to 8% from 2003 to 2007.", "zh": "首先，世界贸易年增长率只有区区2 % ， 而2003—2007年间高达8 % 。", "index": 173}
{"en": "Whereas trade growth during those heady years far exceeded that of world GDP, which averaged 4.5%, lately, trade and GDP growth rates have been about the same.", "zh": "这几年中，贸易增长远远高于世界GDP（平均增长率为4.5 % ） ，但最近贸易和GDP增长大致相当。", "index": 174}
{"en": "Even if GDP growth outstrips growth in trade this year, it will likely amount to no more than 2.7%.", "zh": "即使今年GDP增长超过贸易增长，也可能无法超过2.7 % 。", "index": 175}
{"en": "The question is why.", "zh": "问题在于为什么。", "index": 176}
{"en": "According to Christina and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley, the aftershocks of modern financial crises – that is, since World War II – fade after 2-3 years.", "zh": "据加州大学伯克利分校的克里斯蒂娜和大卫·罗默（Christina and David Romer ） ， 现代金融危机（二战后）的余波会持续2—3年时间才会消失。", "index": 177}
{"en": "The Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff say that it takes five years for a country to dig itself out of a financial crisis.", "zh": "哈佛大学经济学家卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）说，一国需要五年时间才能从金融危机中走出。", "index": 178}
{"en": "And, indeed, the financial dislocations of 2007-2008 have largely receded.", "zh": "而事实上，2007—2008年的金融动荡已经基本消失。", "index": 179}
{"en": "So what accounts for the sluggish economic recovery?", "zh": "因此，是什么导致了经济复苏滞后？", "index": 180}
{"en": "One popular explanation lies in the fuzzy notion of “secular stagnation”: long-term depressed demand for goods and services is undermining incentives to invest and hire.", "zh": "一个流行的解释是一个叫作“长期停滞”的模糊概念 — — 长期受到抑制的商品和服务需求破坏了投资和招聘激励。", "index": 181}
{"en": "But demand would remain weak only if people lacked confidence in the future.", "zh": "但需求只有在人们对未来信心不足时才会持续低迷。", "index": 182}
{"en": "The only logical explanation for this enduring lack of confidence, as Northwestern University’s Robert Gordon has painstakingly documented and argued, is slow productivity growth.", "zh": "这一信心持续缺失的唯一符合逻辑的解释，正如西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）费煞苦心地记录和论证的，是生产率增长缓慢。", "index": 183}
{"en": "Before the crisis – and especially from 2003 to 2007 – slow productivity growth was being obscured by an illusory sense of prosperity in much of the world.", "zh": "危机前，特别是2003—2007年，生产率增长缓慢被一种世界大部分国家都在欣欣向荣的幻觉所蒙蔽。", "index": 184}
{"en": "In some countries – notably, the United States, Spain, and Ireland – rising real-estate prices, speculative construction, and financial risk-taking were mutually reinforcing.", "zh": "在一些国家 — — 特别是美国、西班牙和爱尔兰 — — 高升的放假、投机性建设和金融冒险互相强化。", "index": 185}
{"en": "At the same time, countries were amplifying one another’s growth through trade.", "zh": "与此同时，各国通过贸易放大彼此的增长。", "index": 186}
{"en": "Central to the global boom was China, the rising giant that flooded the world with cheap exports, putting a lid on global inflation.", "zh": "这场全球繁荣的核心是中国，这个崛起的巨无霸向全世界输出廉价出口品，遏制了全球通胀。", "index": 187}
{"en": "Equally important, China imported a huge volume of commodities, thereby bolstering many African and Latin American economies, and purchased German cars and machines, enabling Europe’s largest economy to keep its regional supply chains humming.", "zh": "同样重要的是，中国进口了巨量大宗商品，从而提振了许多非洲和拉丁美洲经济体；还购买了大量德国汽车和机器，让欧洲最大经济体保持其地区供应链满负荷运行。", "index": 188}
{"en": "This dynamic reversed around March 2008, when the US rescued its fifth-largest investment bank, Bear Sterns, from collapse.", "zh": "这一动态在2008年3月左右发生了逆转。 当时，美国拯救了其第五大投资银行贝尔斯登，使其免于破产。", "index": 189}
{"en": "With the eurozone banks also deeply implicated in the subprime mortgage mess and desperately short of US dollars, America and much of Europe began a remorseless slide into recession.", "zh": "欧元区银行业深陷次贷乱局，急缺美元，因此美国和欧洲的大部开始滑向衰退。", "index": 190}
{"en": "Whereas in the boom years, world trade had spread the bounty, it was now spreading the malaise.", "zh": "在繁荣年份，世界贸易传播着财富，而如今，世界贸易传播着经济萎靡。", "index": 191}
{"en": "As each country’s GDP growth slowed, so did its imports, causing its trading partners’ growth to slow as well.", "zh": "随着各国GDP增长的放缓，进口也开始放缓，贸易伙伴的增长也随之放缓。", "index": 192}
{"en": "The US economy began to emerge from its recession in the second half of 2009, thanks largely to aggressive monetary policy and steps to stabilize the financial system.", "zh": "美国经济从2009年下半年开始走出衰退，这主要是为稳定金融体系而采取的激进货币政策和措施的功劳。", "index": 193}
{"en": "Eurozone policymakers, by contrast, rejected monetary stimulus and implemented fiscal austerity measures, while ignoring the deepening distress of their banks.", "zh": "相反，欧洲决策者拒绝采取货币刺激而实施了财政紧缩，无视其银行压力的加剧。", "index": 194}
{"en": "The eurozone thus pushed the world into a second global recession.", "zh": "于是，欧元区将世界拖入了第二场全球衰退。", "index": 195}
{"en": "Just when that recession seemed to have run its course, emerging economies began to unravel.", "zh": "而正当这场衰退眼看就要痊愈时，新兴经济体开始崩溃。", "index": 196}
{"en": "For years, observers had been touting the governance and growth-enhancing reforms that these countries’ leaders had supposedly introduced.", "zh": "多年来，观察家们一直在鼓吹这些国家领导人如何如何实施治理和刺激增长的改革。", "index": 197}
{"en": "In October 2012, the IMF celebrated emerging economies’ “resilience.”", "zh": "2012年10月，IMF大大赞扬了新兴经济体的“恢复力 ” 。", "index": 198}
{"en": "As if on cue, that facade began to crumble, revealing an inconvenient truth: factors like high commodity prices and massive capital inflows had been concealing serious economic weaknesses, while legitimizing a culture of garish inequality and rampant corruption.", "zh": "恰逢此时，门面撑不住了，暴露出一个令人不快的事实：大宗商品价格高企和大规模资本流入等因素掩盖了严重的经济弱点，也让剧烈的不平等性和无孔不入的腐败成为合法的文化。", "index": 199}
{"en": "These problems are now being compounded by the growth slowdown in China, the fulcrum of global trade.", "zh": "如今，这些问题因为全球贸易的支柱 — — 中国增长放缓而雪上加霜。", "index": 200}
{"en": "And the worst is yet to come.", "zh": "而最坏的时刻还没有到来。", "index": 201}
{"en": "China’s huge industrial overcapacity and property glut needs to be wound down; the hubris driving its global acquisitions must be reined in; and its corruption networks have to be dismantled.", "zh": "中国巨大的工业过剩产能和房地产过剩还没有消化；推动其全球兼并的傲慢必须得到遏制；其腐败网络也必须打破。", "index": 202}
{"en": "In short, the factors that dragged down the global economy in 2015 will persist – and in some cases even intensify – in the new year.", "zh": "简言之，2015年拖累全球经济的因素在新的一年里还会持续 — — 有的甚至还会加剧。", "index": 203}
{"en": "Emerging economies will remain weak.", "zh": "新兴经济体将继续疲软。", "index": 204}
{"en": "The eurozone, having enjoyed a temporary reprieve from austerity, will be constrained by listless global trade.", "zh": "暂时摆脱了紧缩的欧元区将受到全球贸易萎靡的束缚。", "index": 205}
{"en": "Rising interest rates on corporate bonds portend slower growth in the US.", "zh": "公司债券利率的提高预示美国增长减速。", "index": 206}
{"en": "China’s collapsing asset values could trigger financial turbulence.", "zh": "中国资产价值崩盘可能引发金融动荡。", "index": 207}
{"en": "And policymakers are adrift, with little political leverage to stem these trends.", "zh": "而决策者就像是无根之木，没有政治手段来遏制这些趋势。", "index": 208}
{"en": "The IMF should stop forecasting renewed growth and issue a warning that the global economy will remain weak and vulnerable unless world leaders act energetically to spur innovation and growth.", "zh": "IMF应该停止更新增长预测，而是发布警告：全球经济将继续保持萎靡和脆弱，除非世界领导人着力刺激创新和增长。", "index": 209}
{"en": "Such an effort is long overdue.", "zh": "这样的措施早就应该实行了。", "index": 210}
{"en": "Trumpian Uncertainty", "zh": "特朗普的不确定性", "index": 211}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Every January, I try to craft a forecast for the coming year.", "zh": "发自纽约 — — 每年一月，我都会尝试对未来一年作出预测。", "index": 212}
{"en": "Economic forecasting is notoriously difficult; but, notwithstanding the truth expressed in Harry Truman’s request for a one-armed economist (who wouldn’t be able to say “on the other hand”), my record has been credible.", "zh": "经济预测是件极为困难的事情；以至于哈里·杜鲁门总统（Harry Truman）曾要求手下给他找一位独臂经济学家 — — 这样此人就无法模棱两可地说“另一方面（on the other hand ） ” 了 — — 但一直以来我的预测还是靠谱的。", "index": 213}
{"en": "In recent years, I correctly foresaw that, in the absence of stronger fiscal stimulus (which was not forthcoming in either Europe or the United States), recovery from the Great Recession of 2008 would be slow.", "zh": "这几年来我正确地预见到，在缺乏更强有力财政刺激政策（在欧洲或美国都一样）的情况下，2008年大衰退的复苏进程将较为缓慢。", "index": 214}
{"en": "In making these forecasts, I have relied more on analysis of underlying economic forces than on complex econometric models.", "zh": "同时我的预测更多地依赖于对基本经济力量的分析，而非复杂的经济计量模型。", "index": 215}
{"en": "For example, at the beginning of 2016, it seemed clear that the deficiencies of global aggregate demand that have been manifest for the last several years were unlikely to change dramatically.", "zh": "例如在2016年初，很显然在过去几年中呈现的全球总需求不足将不大可能出现巨大改变。", "index": 216}
{"en": "Thus, I thought that forecasters of a stronger recovery were looking at the world through rose-tinted glasses. Economic developments unfolded much as I anticipated.", "zh": "因此我认为那些相信会实现强劲复苏的预测者是过于乐观了，最终实际的经济发展也与我的预测一致。", "index": 217}
{"en": "Not so the political events of 2016.", "zh": "2016年的政治事件也是如此。", "index": 218}
{"en": "I had been writing for years that unless growing inequality – especially in the US, but also in many countries throughout the world – was addressed, there would be political consequences.", "zh": "多年来我一直指出，除非在全球许多国家（尤其是美国）日益严重的不平等问题得到解决，否则必将产生某些政治后果。", "index": 219}
{"en": "But inequality continued to worsen – with striking data showing that average life expectancy in the US was on the decline.", "zh": "但不平等状况依然持续恶化 — — 令人震惊的数据显示，美国的预期平均寿命正在下降。", "index": 220}
{"en": "These results were foreshadowed by a study last year, by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, which showed that life expectancy was on the decline for large segments of the population – including America’s so-called angry men of the Rust Belt.", "zh": "正如安娜·凯斯（Anne Case）和安格斯·迪顿（Angus Deaton）的一项研究表明：美国大部分人口的预期寿命都在下降，包括所谓北部老工业区的愤怒居民们。", "index": 221}
{"en": "But, with the incomes of the bottom 90% having stagnated for close to a third of a century (and declining for a significant proportion), the health data simply confirmed that things were not going well for very large swaths of the country.", "zh": "而由于90％的底层人士收入增长已经停滞了将近1/3个世纪（且其中很大比例都出现了下滑 ） ， 医疗数据清晰明白地证实了美国大部分地区处境不妙。", "index": 222}
{"en": "And while America might be at the extreme of this trend, things were little better elsewhere.", "zh": "但美国可能处于这种趋势的极端，其他地方的情况会好一点。", "index": 223}
{"en": "But, if it seemed clear that there would be political consequences, their form and timing were far less obvious.", "zh": "但如果这似乎必然预示着某些政治后果，那么其形式和时间就不那么明显了。", "index": 224}
{"en": "Why did the backlash in the US come just when the economy seemed to be on the mend, rather than earlier?", "zh": "为什么美国的下行会在经济恢复期出现，而不是更为提前？", "index": 225}
{"en": "And why did it manifest itself in a lurch to the right?", "zh": "为何这会表现为政治右倾？", "index": 226}
{"en": "After all, it was the Republicans who had blocked assistance to those losing their jobs as a result of the globalization they pushed assiduously. It was the Republicans who, in 26 states, refused to allow the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying health insurance to those at the bottom.", "zh": "毕竟正是共和党人拒绝援助那些因他们全力推动全球化而失业的人们，是共和党人否决在26个州扩大医疗补助，从而拒绝为底层的人提供医疗保险。", "index": 227}
{"en": "And why was the victor somebody who made his living from taking advantage of others, openly admitted not paying his fair share of taxes, and made tax avoidance a point of pride?", "zh": "为什么一个依靠占他人便宜来谋生，公开承认并未支付合理份额税收，并以避税为荣的人会成为大选最终赢家？", "index": 228}
{"en": "Donald Trump grasped the spirit of the time: things weren’t going well, and many voters wanted change.", "zh": "唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）抓住了时代精神：境况不佳，许多选民都想来点改变。", "index": 229}
{"en": "Now they will get it: there will be no business as usual. But seldom has there been more uncertainty.", "zh": "但如今他们会意识到真相：再也没有什么常态可言，但也不会存在更多的不确定性。", "index": 230}
{"en": "Which policies Trump will pursue remains unknown, to say nothing of which will succeed or what the consequences will be.", "zh": "特朗普将实施何种政策仍然是未知之数，更遑论哪些政策将会成功或者后果将是什么了。", "index": 231}
{"en": "Trump seems hell-bent on having a trade war.", "zh": "特朗普似乎拼命想发起一场贸易战。", "index": 232}
{"en": "But how will China and Mexico respond?", "zh": "那么中国和墨西哥将如何应对？", "index": 233}
{"en": "Trump may well understand that what he proposes will violate World Trade Organization rules, but he may also know that it will take a long time for the WTO to rule against him.", "zh": "特朗普清楚知道他的提议会违反世贸规则，但他估计也明白世贸组织需要很长时间来推翻这一做法。", "index": 234}
{"en": "And by then, America’s trade account may have been rebalanced.", "zh": "到那时候美国的贸易账户可能早就实现重新平衡了。", "index": 235}
{"en": "But two can play that game: China can take similar actions, though its response is likely to be more subtle.", "zh": "但这个博弈可是双方面的：中国也可以采取类似但更为隐秘微妙的行动。", "index": 236}
{"en": "If a trade war were to break out, what would happen?", "zh": "那么如果真爆发一场贸易战的话，将会出现何种状况？", "index": 237}
{"en": "Trump may have reason to think he could win; after all, China is more dependent on exports to the US than the US is on exports to China, which gives the US an advantage.", "zh": "特朗普可能觉得自己有把握能赢；毕竟中国对向美国出口的依赖要强于美国对中国出口，这是美国的优势。", "index": 238}
{"en": "But a trade war is not a zero-sum game. The US stands to lose as well.", "zh": "但贸易战可不是一场此消彼长的零和游戏，美国也会输。", "index": 239}
{"en": "China may be more effective in targeting its retaliation to cause acute political pain.", "zh": "中国的报复可能更具针对性，足以对美国造成严重的政治压力。", "index": 240}
{"en": "And the Chinese may be in a better position to respond to US attempts to inflict pain on them than the US is to respond to the pain that China might inflict on Americans.", "zh": "而中国人可能比美国人处于更有利的地位来应对对方施加的危机。", "index": 241}
{"en": "It’s anybody’s guess who can stand the pain better.", "zh": "大家都在猜测谁的承受能力更强：是普通民众在泥潭里长期挣扎的美国？", "index": 242}
{"en": "Will it be the US, where ordinary citizens have already suffered for so long, or China, which, despite troubled times, has managed to generate growth in excess of 6%?", "zh": "还是即便在困难时期也得以实现超过6％增长的中国？", "index": 243}
{"en": "More broadly, the Republican/Trump agenda, with its tax cuts even more weighted toward the rich than the standard GOP recipe would imply, is based on the idea of trickle-down prosperity – a continuation of the Reagan era’s supply-side economics, which never actually worked.", "zh": "更宏观地看来，共和党/特朗普的议程 — — 其税收削减甚至比标准的共和党方案更为偏袒富人 — — 意味着这些政策都是基于涓滴繁荣（富人多赚钱消费从而穷人有工作）的理念，也是里根时代供给侧经济学政策的延续 — — 但这一政策从未奏效过。", "index": 244}
{"en": "Fire-breathing rhetoric, or raving three a.m. tweets, may assuage the anger of those left behind by the Reagan revolution, at least for a while.", "zh": "惹火的言论或者半夜三点在推特上发表的胡言乱语至少能在一段时间内安抚那些被里根革命所抛弃的愤世者。", "index": 245}
{"en": "But for how long?", "zh": "但这能维持要多久呢？", "index": 246}
{"en": "And what happens then?", "zh": "随后又会是何种状况？", "index": 247}
{"en": "Trump might like to repeal the ordinary laws of economics, as he goes about his version of voodoo economics. But he can’t.", "zh": "特朗普可能喜欢颠覆常规的经济学法则，因为他乐于奉行自己那一套巫术经济学，但这是行不通的。", "index": 248}
{"en": "Still, as the world’s largest economy leads the way into uncharted political waters in 2017 and beyond, it would be foolhardy for a mere mortal to attempt a forecast, other than to state the obvious: the waters will almost certainly be choppy, and many – if not most – pundit ships will sink along the way.", "zh": "而随着美国这个全球最大经济体在2017年及以后的年月进入一片未知的政治水域，除了指出一些显而易见的事实之外，任何人类的预测都是不智的：这片水域几乎肯定会激起风浪，而许多 — — 如果不是大多数 — — 预测专家的航船也将随之倾覆沉没。", "index": 249}
{"en": "9/11 and the New Authoritarianism", "zh": "9/11和新独裁专制主义", "index": 250}
{"en": "Five years after the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, “9/11” is no longer a mere date.", "zh": "袭击纽约双子塔和华盛顿五角大楼五年后 ， “ 9/11”已经不再仅仅是一个日期了。", "index": 251}
{"en": "It has entered the history books as the beginning of something new, a new era perhaps, but in any case a time of change.", "zh": "它已经作为一个变革时代的某种开端或者是一个新的时代的开始而载入史册。", "index": 252}
{"en": "The terrorist bombings in Madrid and London and elsewhere will also be remembered; but it is “9/11” that has become the catchphrase, almost like “August 1914.”", "zh": "恐怖分子在马德里和伦敦以及其他地方制造的爆炸事件也将被人铭记；但是，只有“9/11”几乎像“1914年8月”那样成为了流行语。", "index": 253}
{"en": "But was it really a war that started on September 11, 2001?", "zh": "但是，那果真是一场开于2001年9月11日的战争吗？", "index": 254}
{"en": "Not all are happy about this American notion.", "zh": "并不是所有人都赞同这一美国式的观点。", "index": 255}
{"en": "During the heyday of Irish terrorism in the UK, successive British governments went out of their way not to concede to the IRA the notion that a war was being waged.", "zh": "当爱尔兰恐怖主义在英国猖獗之际，各届英国政府都竭力不屈从于爱尔兰共和军的观点，即正在进行一场战争。", "index": 256}
{"en": "“War” would have meant acceptance of the terrorists as legitimate enemies, in a sense as equals in a bloody contest for which there are accepted rules of engagement.", "zh": "“战争”将会意味着把恐怖分子接受为合法的敌人，其含义与具有认同的交战规则的一场血腥战争的对等体相同。", "index": 257}
{"en": "This is neither a correct description nor a useful terminology for terrorist acts, which are more correctly described as criminal.", "zh": "这既非对恐怖主义行为的正确描述，也不是有用的词汇。 恐怖分子应该更为准确地被称为罪犯。", "index": 258}
{"en": "By calling them war – and naming an opponent, usually al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden – the United States government has justified domestic changes that, before the 9/11 attacks, would have been unacceptable in any free country.", "zh": "但是通过称之为战争、并把基地组织及其领导人本拉登点名为对手，美国政府给某些国内变化提供了理由。 这些国内变化在9/11袭击之前是不会被任何自由国家所接受的。", "index": 259}
{"en": "Most of these changes were embodied in the so-called “USA Patriot Act.”", "zh": "这些变化的大多数都体现在所谓的“美国爱国者法案”上。", "index": 260}
{"en": "Though some of the changes simply involved administrative regulations, the Patriot Act’s overall effect was to erode the great pillars of liberty, such as habeas corpus , the right to recourse to an independent court whenever the state deprives an individual of his freedom.", "zh": "尽管某些变化仅仅涉及到行政规定，但是，爱国者法案的整体效果却是侵蚀自由的支柱，例如人身保护，也就是无论何时国家剥夺个人自由，均有向独立法院寻求救助的权利。", "index": 261}
{"en": "From an early date, the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba became the symbol of something unheard of: the arrest without trial of “illegal combatants” who are deprived of all human rights.", "zh": "很久以来，古巴关塔那摩湾的战俘营成为了闻所未闻的象征，也就是不经审判逮捕被剥夺所有人权的“非法战斗人员 ” 。", "index": 262}
{"en": "The world now wonders how many more of these non-human humans are there in how many places.", "zh": "如今，世界并不知道在多少地方还有多少更多的遭受非人待遇的人。", "index": 263}
{"en": "For everyone else, a kind of state of emergency was proclaimed that has allowed state interference in essential civil rights.", "zh": "对于其他所有人而言，好像是宣布了某种紧急状态，允许国家干涉基本民权。", "index": 264}
{"en": "Controls at borders have become an ordeal for many, and police persecution now burdens quite a few.", "zh": "边境检查已经成为许多人的煎熬，警察起诉给很多人带来了负担。", "index": 265}
{"en": "A climate of fear has made life hard for anyone who looks suspicious or acts suspiciously, notably for Muslims.", "zh": "一种恐惧的气候让任何看似可疑或者行为可疑的人、特别是穆斯林生活困难。", "index": 266}
{"en": "Such restrictions on freedom did not meet with much public opposition when they were adopted.", "zh": "当采取这些限制自由的措施的时候并没有遇到很多公众的反对。", "index": 267}
{"en": "On the contrary, by and large it was the critics, not the supporters, of these measures who found themselves in trouble.", "zh": "相反，总体而言，那些措施的批评者，而非支持者发现遇到了麻烦。", "index": 268}
{"en": "In Britain, where Prime Minister Tony Blair supported the US attitude entirely, the government introduced similar measures and even offered a new theory.", "zh": "在英国，布莱尔首相全力支持美国的态度，政府引入了类似的措施，甚至提出了一个新的理论。", "index": 269}
{"en": "Blair was the first to argue that security is the first freedom.", "zh": "布莱尔第一个主张安全是第一自由。", "index": 270}
{"en": "In other words, liberty is not the right of individuals to define their own lives, but the right of the state to restrict individual freedom in the name of a security that only the state can define.", "zh": "换言之，自由并非是个人确定自身生活的权利，而是国家以安全的名义限制个人自由的权利。 只有国家才能确定安全的含义。", "index": 271}
{"en": "This is the beginning of a new authoritarianism.", "zh": "这就是一个新的独裁主义的开始。", "index": 272}
{"en": "The problem exists in all countries affected by the threat of terrorism, though in many it has not become quite as specific.", "zh": "这一问题存在于所有受到恐怖主义威胁的国家，尽管在许多国家中这已经变得非常具体。", "index": 273}
{"en": "In most countries of continental Europe, “9/11” has remained an American date.", "zh": "在大多数欧洲大陆国家 ， ” 9/11“已经成为一个美国人的日子。", "index": 274}
{"en": "There is even a debate – and indeed some evidence – concerning the question of whether involvement in the “war against terrorism” has actually increased the threat of terrorist acts.", "zh": "甚至还有人辩论，而且确实还有证据表明，参与到“反恐战争”之中是否实际上增加了恐怖主义行动的威胁。", "index": 275}
{"en": "Germans certainly use this argument to stay out of the action wherever possible.", "zh": "德国人当然在可能的情况下利用这一论点置身度外。", "index": 276}
{"en": "This stance, however, has not prevented the spread of something for which a German word is used in other languages, too: Angst .", "zh": "但是，这一立场并没有防止德语中所说的忧虑的扩散。", "index": 277}
{"en": "A diffuse anxiety is gaining ground.", "zh": "一种弥散性的焦虑正在扩大。", "index": 278}
{"en": "People feel uneasy and worried, especially when traveling.", "zh": "人们感到不安，特别是在旅行的时候。", "index": 279}
{"en": "Any train accident or airplane crash is now at first suspected of being an act of terrorism.", "zh": "任何一个火车事故或者飞机坠毁现在都首先被怀疑是恐怖主义行为。", "index": 280}
{"en": "Thus, 9/11 has meant, directly or indirectly, a great shock, both psychologically and to our political systems.", "zh": "这样，9/11已经直接或间接地意味着一个巨大的震惊事件，在心理上以及对于政治体系而言都是如此。", "index": 281}
{"en": "While terrorism is fought in the name of democracy, the fight has in fact led to a distinct weakening of democracy, owing to official legislation and popular angst.", "zh": "尽管以民主的名义与恐怖主义作战，实际上这一斗争由于官方的立法以及民众的忧虑而已经导致对民主明显的削弱。", "index": 282}
{"en": "One of the worrying features of the 9/11 attacks is that it is hard to see their purpose beyond the perpetrators’ resentment of the West and its ways.", "zh": "9/11攻击的令人担忧的特性之一就是除了罪犯们仇恨西方及其生活方式之外，很难看到他们的目的。", "index": 283}
{"en": "But the West’s key features, democracy and the rule of law, have taken a far more severe battering at the hands of their defenders than by their attackers.", "zh": "但是西方社会的主要特征，即民主和法治却已经在捍卫者手中遭到了严重的损害，其程度超过远远超过其攻击者。", "index": 284}
{"en": "Two steps, above all, are needed to restore confidence in liberty within the democracies affected by the legacy of 9/11.", "zh": "最重要的是，需要采取两个步骤来在受到9/11后果影响的��主国家恢复对自由的信心。", "index": 285}
{"en": "First, we must make certain that the relevant legislation to meet the challenge of terrorism is strictly temporary.", "zh": "首先，我们必须确保应对恐怖主义挑战的相关立法是严格具有时限的。", "index": 286}
{"en": "Some of today’s restrictions on habeas corpus and civil liberties have sunset clauses restricting their validity; all such rules should be re-examined by parliaments regularly.", "zh": "当今的某些对人身自由以及民权的限制含有限制其时效的废止条款。 所有这些法规都应当定期接受议会的重新审查。", "index": 287}
{"en": "Second, and more importantly, our leaders must seek to calm, rather than exploit, public anxiety.", "zh": "第二，也是更为重要的是，我们的领导人应当力求平息、而不是利用公众的焦虑。", "index": 288}
{"en": "The terrorists with whom we are currently at “war” cannot win, because their dark vision will never gain broad popular legitimacy.", "zh": "我们目前“交战”的恐怖分子无法获胜，因为他们的黑暗的观点永远不会赢得广泛的公众合法认可。", "index": 289}
{"en": "That is all the more reason for democrats to stand tall in defending our values – first and foremost by acting in accordance with them.", "zh": "这也就是民主派人士应当身先士卒、首要地以遵循我们的价值观的方式来捍卫它们的原因。", "index": 290}
{"en": "9/11 in Perspective", "zh": "9·11：十年后的盘点", "index": 291}
{"en": "NEW YORK – It was a decade ago that 19 terrorists took control of four planes, flew two into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, hit the Pentagon with a third, and crashed the fourth in a field in Pennsylvania after passengers resisted and made it impossible for the terrorists to complete their malevolent mission.", "zh": "纽约 — — 十年前，19名恐怖分子劫持了四架民航客机，其中两架撞上世贸中心双子塔，第三架撞击了五角大楼，第四架在乘客的反抗下无法完成袭击，坠毁于宾夕法尼亚旷野。", "index": 292}
{"en": "In a matter of hours, more than 3,000 innocent people, mostly Americans, but also people from 115 other countries, had their lives suddenly and violently taken from them.", "zh": "只不过几个小时，3000多无辜平民被突如其来的暴行夺去了生命，其中大多是美国人，但也有来自其他115个国家的人。", "index": 293}
{"en": "September 11, 2001, was a terrible tragedy by any measure, but it was not a historical turning point.", "zh": "2001年9月11日，以任何标准看都是一个可怕的惨剧，但它并非一个历史转折点。", "index": 294}
{"en": "It did not herald a new era of international relations in which terrorists with a global agenda prevailed, or in which such spectacular terrorist attacks became commonplace. On the contrary, 9/11 has not been replicated.", "zh": "它并未开启一个由全球恐怖主义主导国际关系的新时代，类似的大规模恐怖袭击也没有变成家常便饭。", "index": 295}
{"en": "Despite the attention devoted to the “Global War on Terrorism,” the most important developments of the last ten years have been the introduction and spread of innovative information technologies, globalization, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the political upheavals in the Middle East.", "zh": "虽然人们在“全球反恐战争”上投注了大量精力，但是过去10年最重要的进展是信息技术的创新与传播、全球化、伊拉克与阿富汗战争以及中东的政治动荡。", "index": 296}
{"en": "As for the future, it is much more likely to be defined by the United States’ need to put its economic house in order; China’s trajectory within and beyond its borders; and the ability of the world’s governments to cooperate on restoring economic growth, stemming the spread of nuclear weapons, and meeting energy and environmental challenges.", "zh": "未来一个阶段的关键，则是美国整修其经济大厦的努力，中国在国内国际事务中的走向，各国政府在重振经济增长、控制核扩散以及应对能源与环境挑战方面的合作能力。", "index": 297}
{"en": "It is and would be wrong to make opposition to terrorism the centerpiece of what responsible governments do in the world.", "zh": "如果把反对恐怖主义当成负责任的政府在世界上的核心要务，这是错误的。", "index": 298}
{"en": "Terrorists continue to be outliers with limited appeal at best.", "zh": "恐怖主义仍是边缘角色，它们的吸引力终归是有限的。", "index": 299}
{"en": "They can destroy but not create.", "zh": "它们只破坏，不建设。", "index": 300}
{"en": "It is worth noting that the people who went into the streets of Cairo and Damascus calling for change were not shouting the slogans of Al Qaeda or supporting its agenda.", "zh": "值得注意的是，人们走上开罗和大马士革街头，呼喊的并不是基地组织的口号，也没有对它的纲领表示支持。", "index": 301}
{"en": "Moreover, measures have been implemented to push back, successfully, against terrorists.", "zh": "此外，种种措施已经成功地令恐怖分子退入守势。", "index": 302}
{"en": "Intelligence assets have been redirected. Borders have been made more secure and societies more resilient.", "zh": "情报资源已重新配置，国境线已变得更安全，社会已变得更有弹性。", "index": 303}
{"en": "International cooperation has increased markedly, in part because governments that cannot agree on many things can agree on the need to cooperate in this area.", "zh": "反恐国际合作显著增强，部分是因为，各国政府都觉得需要在这一领域加强合作，尽管它们在其他领域颇有分歧。", "index": 304}
{"en": "Military force has played a role as well.", "zh": "军事力量也扮演着某种角色。", "index": 305}
{"en": "Al Qaeda lost its base in Afghanistan when the Taliban government that had provided it sanctuary was ousted from power.", "zh": "基地组织丧失了位于阿富汗的巢穴，正式因为向它提供庇护的塔利班政府被推翻。", "index": 306}
{"en": "Osama bin-Laden was finally found and killed by US Special Forces in the suburbs of Islamabad.", "zh": "奥萨马·本·拉登最终被美国特种部队找到并击毙。", "index": 307}
{"en": "Drones – unmanned aircraft that are remotely steered – have proven to be effective in killing a significant number of terrorists, including many of the most important leaders.", "zh": "军事无人机在击毙恐怖组织头目的行动中作用非凡。", "index": 308}
{"en": "Weak governments can be made stronger; governments that tolerate or support terrorism must be held accountable.", "zh": "软弱的政府可以得到加强，纵容乃至支持恐怖主义的政府则必须为此负责。", "index": 309}
{"en": "But progress is not to be confused with victory.", "zh": "但进展不应被称作胜利。", "index": 310}
{"en": "Terrorists and terrorism cannot be eliminated any more than we can rid the world of disease.", "zh": "恐怖分子和恐怖主义不可能根除，就像我们不可能从地球上消灭疾病一样。", "index": 311}
{"en": "There will always be those who will resort to force against innocent men, women, and children in pursuit of political goals.", "zh": "总会有人试图对无辜者动用武力以追求其政治目标，不论是对男人、妇女还是儿童。", "index": 312}
{"en": "Indeed, terrorists are advancing in some areas.", "zh": "事实上，恐怖分子在某些领域走在了前头。", "index": 313}
{"en": "Pakistan remains a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and some of the world’s other most dangerous terrorists.", "zh": "巴基斯坦仍在为基地组织和世界上其他一些最危险的恐怖分子提供庇护所。", "index": 314}
{"en": "A mixture of instability, government weakness, and ideology in countries such as Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and Nigeria are providing fertile territory for terrorists to organize, train, and mount operations – much as they did in Afghanistan did a decade ago.", "zh": "由于局势动荡、政府软弱和意识形态等等原因，也门、利比亚、索马里和尼日利亚也在沦为恐怖主义滋生的沃土，它们在那些地方组织、训练、实施行动，就像在十年前的阿富汗一样。", "index": 315}
{"en": "New groups constantly emerge from the ruins of old ones.", "zh": "旧的组织刚被摧毁，新的组织就冒出头来。", "index": 316}
{"en": "There is also a growing danger of homegrown terrorism.", "zh": "本土恐怖主义的危险也在增长。", "index": 317}
{"en": "We have seen it in Great Britain and the US.", "zh": "我们在英国和美国都看到了这种迹象。", "index": 318}
{"en": "The Internet, one of the great inventions of the modern Western world, has shown itself to be a weapon that can be used to incite and train those who wish to cause harm to that world.", "zh": "互联网，这一现代西方世界的伟大发明，也被当成武器，激励并训练那些试图危害这个世界的人。", "index": 319}
{"en": "The question raised in October 2003 by then US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is no less relevant today: “Are we capturing, killing, or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training, and deploying against us?”", "zh": "2003年10月，时任美国国防部长拉姆斯菲尔德曾提出一个问题，至今仍很中肯 ： “ 我们每天俘虏、击毙、关押和改造过来的恐怖分子，能比伊斯兰学校和激进宗教人士每天招募、训练和派遣出来反对我们的人数多吗？", "index": 320}
{"en": "All things being equal, we probably are.", "zh": "”如果将一切等量齐观，那我们也许已经做到了。", "index": 321}
{"en": "But even small terrorist successes are costly in terms of lives, money, and making open societies less so.", "zh": "但恐怖分子的任何一点微小成功，对开放社会都意味着高昂的生命和金钱成本，从这个意义上说，我��得不偿失。", "index": 322}
{"en": "What is to be done?", "zh": "那我们该怎么办？", "index": 323}
{"en": "Alas, there is no single or silver bullet.", "zh": "可惜没有一蹴而就的办法。", "index": 324}
{"en": "The establishment of a Palestinian state will not be enough for those terrorists who want to see the elimination of the Jewish state, any more than reaching a compromise over Kashmir will satisfy those Pakistan-based terrorists with bigger agendas vis-à-vis India.", "zh": "巴勒斯坦建国还是不够，因为恐怖分子想要消灭犹太人的国家；在克什米尔问题上达成妥协，也无法满足巴基斯坦恐怖分子对印度更大的领土要求。", "index": 325}
{"en": "Reducing unemployment is desirable, of course, but many terrorists do not come from poverty.", "zh": "减少失业当然是件好事，但许多恐怖分子并非穷人出身。", "index": 326}
{"en": "Helping to make societies in the Middle East and elsewhere more democratic might reduce the alienation that can lead to radicalism and worse, but this is easier said than done.", "zh": "帮助中东和其他地方的社会变得更民主有助于缓解边缘化作用，遏制极端主义，但这说起来比做起来容易。", "index": 327}
{"en": "Of course, we want to continue to find ways to make ourselves less vulnerable and terrorists more so.", "zh": "当然，我们需要继续想办法，让我们变强，让恐怖分子变弱。", "index": 328}
{"en": "But what may be most important, particularly in the Arab and Islamic communities, is to end any acceptance of terrorism.", "zh": "但最重要的是阻止恐怖主义以任何方式进行传播，尤其是在阿拉伯和伊斯兰社会。", "index": 329}
{"en": "The Nigerian father who warned the US embassy in Lagos that he feared what his own son might do – before that same young man attempted to detonate a bomb aboard a flight to Detroit on Christmas Day 2009 – is an example of just this.", "zh": "2009年圣诞节，尼日利亚的一位父亲向美国驻拉各斯大使馆警告说，他担心他的儿子会做出可怕的事情来，从而阻止了后者在飞往底特律的航班上引爆一枚炸弹，这就是一个很好的例子。", "index": 330}
{"en": "Only when more parents, teachers, and community leaders behave likewise will recruitment of terrorists dry up and law-enforcement authorities receive full cooperation from the populations they police.", "zh": "只有当更多的父母、教师和社会领袖以这样的方式行动起来，才能令恐怖分子的来源枯竭，执法部门才能获得民众的全力配合。", "index": 331}
{"en": "Terrorism must lose its legitimacy among those who have historically supported or tolerated it before it will lose its potency.", "zh": "在那些传统上支持或纵容恐怖主义的地方，恐怖主义必须先丧失其合法性，才会进一步丧失能量。", "index": 332}
{"en": "Transatlantic Trade for All", "zh": "所有人的跨大西洋贸易", "index": 333}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – The negotiations to create a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States are being widely welcomed.", "zh": "华盛顿—欧盟和美国之间关于成立跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴（TTIP）的谈判受到了广泛的欢迎。", "index": 334}
{"en": "British Prime Minister David Cameron has called the TTIP a “once-in-a-generation prize,” citing potential gains of £80 billion ($125.5 billion) each for the EU and the US and £85 billion for the rest of the world.", "zh": "英国首相卡梅伦将TTIP称为“一代人只有一次的机会 ” ， 认为它将给欧盟和美国各带来800亿英镑的潜在收益，给世界其他地区带来850亿英镑的潜在收益。", "index": 335}
{"en": "For a world weary of waiting for the World Trade Organization’s interminable Doha trade round to conclude, even a bilateral trade initiative may seem like a boon, especially when, as a recent Financial Times editorial pointed out, “bilateral” covers half of the world’s economy.", "zh": "对于一个等待世贸组织冗长的多哈回合最后结果已经不耐烦的世界来说，即使是双边计划也像是天降恩惠，特别是在《金融时报》最近所指出的“双边”关系包括了世界经济半壁江山的当下。", "index": 336}
{"en": "But there is a serious downside: The deal could hurt developing-country exporters, unless the EU and the US make a concerted effort to protect these actors’ interests.", "zh": "但风险也是巨大的：TTIP协议可能伤害发展中国家的出口，除非欧盟和美国携手保护这些行动方的利益。", "index": 337}
{"en": "The feature of the proposed pact that elicits the most excitement – its focus on regulatory barriers like mandatory product standards – should actually incite the greatest concern.", "zh": "计划中的契约引起最多兴奋情绪的部分 — — 其对强制性产品标准等监管壁垒的强调 — — 实际上最应该引起关注。", "index": 338}
{"en": "Given low tariffs in the EU and the US – less than 5%, on average – further preferential reductions will not seriously handicap outsiders.", "zh": "欧盟和美国关税很低 — — 平均不到5 % — —因此进一步的优惠降税并不会严重影响其他国家。", "index": 339}
{"en": "But, when it comes to standards – such as those governing safety, health, and the environment – the market-access requirements are brutal and binary: either you meet the established standard or you do not sell.", "zh": "但是，在标准问题上 — — 比如涉及安全、健康和环境的标准 — — 市场准入标准是严酷且二分的：要么满足规定的标准，要么别来这里卖东西。", "index": 340}
{"en": "As a result, third-country firms’ options will depend on how TTIP standards are established: through harmonization (adoption of a common standard) or mutual recognition (acceptance of goods that meet one another’s established standards).", "zh": "其结果是第三国企业的选择将取决于TTIP标准如何设置：通过协调（采取共同标准）还是通过互相承认（接受满足彼此规定标准的商品和服务 ） 。", "index": 341}
{"en": "The first option would enable producers everywhere to take advantage of economies of scale.", "zh": "第一种选择将让世界各地的生产者都能够利用规模经济的优势。", "index": 342}
{"en": "But, in some cases, the harmonized standard could be more stringent than some countries’ original standards.", "zh": "但是，在一些场合，协调后的标准���能比某些国家原先的标准更加苛刻。", "index": 343}
{"en": "Even though new standards would apply to suppliers from all exporting countries, compliance costs usually vary, meaning that those less equipped to meet higher standards could suffer.", "zh": "尽管新标准将适用于所有出口国供应商，但合规成本通常各不相同，这意味着更难以满足高标准的企业会遭受损失。", "index": 344}
{"en": "In the late 1990’s, when the EU decided to harmonize standards for aflatoxins (a group of toxic compounds produced by certain molds), eight member states – including Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain – raised their national standards substantially, which is likely to have caused African exports of cereals, dried fruits, and nuts to Europe to decline by as much as $670 million.", "zh": "20世纪90年代末，欧盟决定协调黄曲霉素标准（黄曲霉素是某些霉菌产生的有毒成分族 ） ， 八个成员国 — — 包括意大利、荷兰和西班牙 — — 大幅度提高了国家标准，这或许就是非洲国家队欧洲的谷物、水果干和坚果对欧出口下降6.7亿美元的原因。", "index": 345}
{"en": "With mutual recognition, the EU and the US would accept each other’s standards or conformity-assessment procedures, allowing firms to adhere to the less stringent requirements in each area.", "zh": "若采取互相承认，那么欧盟和美国将承认彼此的标准或合规评估程序，企业会在各种标准中选择不太苛刻的那种。", "index": 346}
{"en": "If the policy were extended to third-country firms, it would have a powerful liberalizing impact.", "zh": "如果该政策扩展到第三国企业，就会产生极大的自由化作用。", "index": 347}
{"en": "For example, Malaysian television producers could choose to comply with, say, America’s easier-to-meet safety standards, then sell the same product in both markets, reaping the benefits of economies of scale while lowering compliance costs.", "zh": "比如，马来西亚电视生产商可能选择符合（比如）美国较易符合的安全标准，然后在欧美两地销售同样的产品，既享受了规模经济的好处，又降低了合规成本。", "index": 348}
{"en": "If, however, the TTIP excluded third-country firms from the mutual recognition policy, their competitiveness vis-à-vis European and American companies would diminish substantially.", "zh": "但是，如果TTIP将第三国企业排除在互相承认政策之外，那么它们相对欧洲和美股公司的竞争力将受到极大的削弱。", "index": 349}
{"en": "Indeed, our research shows that when mutual-recognition agreements include restrictive rules of origin, intra-regional trade increases – at the expense of trade with other countries – and that developing countries tend to suffer most.", "zh": "事实上，我们的研究表明，若互相承诺协议包括严格的来源国限制，则地区内贸易将增加，与其他国家的贸易会削弱，发展中国家损失最大。", "index": 350}
{"en": "In fact, excessively constraining rules of origin have proved problematic for some of the EU’s previous recognition agreements, such as those governing professional-services standards.", "zh": "事实上，欧盟此前的不少承认协议（比如在专业服务标准方面）表明，过度约束的来源地规则很有问题大有问题。", "index": 351}
{"en": "While a Brazilian orange admitted for sale in Portugal can be sold throughout the EU, a Brazilian engineer or accountant licensed in Portugal must fulfill separate licensing requirements to work elsewhere in the EU, hampering much-needed labor mobility by forcing non-European workers to endure costly and inefficient bureaucratic procedures.", "zh": "尽管获准在葡萄牙出售的巴西橙可以在整个欧盟出售，但获得葡萄牙执照的巴西工程师和会计师仍必须满足欧盟其他地区各自的执业要求，这迫使非欧洲工人忍受费时费力的官僚主义流程，不利于急需的劳动力流动。", "index": 352}
{"en": "Furthermore, when it comes to tariffs and standards, WTO rules are not created equal.", "zh": "此外，在关税和标准方面，世贸组织规则并不平等。", "index": 353}
{"en": "While they protect countries excluded from bilateral or regional tariff agreements, thereby ensuring that integrated markets do not receive additional advantages, few safeguards exist to shield third countries from the fallout of agreements on mandatory standards.", "zh": "尽管世贸组织规则保护着被双边和地区关税协定排除在外的国家，从而确保一体化市场不会获得其他附加的优势，但保护第三国免受强制性标准协议影响的保护措施几乎不存在。", "index": 354}
{"en": "Even in the absence of international rules, the EU and the US could take two actions to ensure that the TTIP does not have adverse consequences for developing economies.", "zh": "即使没有国际法，欧盟和美国也可以采取两个动作确保TTIP不会损害发展中经济体。", "index": 355}
{"en": "First, they could allow all countries to reap the benefits of a bilateral mutual-recognition deal by agreeing not to impose restrictive rules of origin.", "zh": "首先，它们可以同意不实施严格的来源地规则，这将使所有国家都能享受到双边互相承认协议的好处。", "index": 356}
{"en": "Second, where they do consider harmonization, they could favor the less stringent of the original standards, unless there is credible evidence that it would not support the relevant regulatory objective.", "zh": "其次，在考虑协调的领域，它们可以倾向于原始标准中较不苛刻的一个，除非有充分的证据表明这样做不利于相关监管目标。", "index": 357}
{"en": "This is akin to a WTO test for departures from established international standards.", "zh": "这类似于世贸组织的脱离现行国际标准测试。", "index": 358}
{"en": "If the EU and the US made these two commitments, the rest of the world could follow the TTIP negotiations with hope, rather than trepidation.", "zh": "如果欧盟和美国实施了这两点，世界其他国家将可以带着希望而不是恐惧追踪TTIP。", "index": 359}
{"en": "A Balanced Look at Sino-American Imbalances", "zh": "中美贸易不平衡的平衡观", "index": 360}
{"en": "BEIJING – Before July 2007, most economists agreed that global imbalances were the most important threat to global growth.", "zh": "发自北京 — — 在2007年7月以前，大多数经济学家都认为全球增长的最重大威胁来自于全球贸易不平衡。", "index": 361}
{"en": "It was argued that the United States’ rising net foreign debt-to-GDP ratio – the result of chronic current-account deficits – would put a sharp brake on capital inflows, in turn weakening the dollar, driving up interest rates, and plunging the US economy into crisis.", "zh": "他们觉得美国净外债与GDP比率的不断上升 — — 这是长期经常账户赤字所引发的后果 — — 将导致资金流入急剧减少，随之削弱美元，而后利率上涨，并最终令美国经济陷入危机当中。", "index": 362}
{"en": "But this scenario failed to materialize. Instead, the crisis stemmed from the US sub-prime debacle, which quickly dragged the global economy into its deepest recession since the 1930’s.", "zh": "但这一设想却未能成为现实，事实上本次危机源自于美国次级贷款的崩盘，并当即将全球经济拖入了一场自1930年代以来最为严重的衰退当中。", "index": 363}
{"en": "Most economists failed to foresee the economic dynamics that actually led to the crisis, because they failed to pay enough attention to the rapid increase in US total debt.", "zh": "而大多数经济学家之所以无法预见到危机背后的真正经济驱动力，是因为他们对美国总债务的快速增长缺乏足够的关注。", "index": 364}
{"en": "Instead, they focused exclusively on US foreign debt, ignoring household debt (mortgage and consumer debt), public debt, business debt, and financial debt.", "zh": "实际上他们把注意力都放在了美国的外债上，却忽视了家庭负债（抵押贷款和消费者债务 ） 、 公共负债，商业债务和金融债务等方面的问题。", "index": 365}
{"en": "In particular, they should have paid greater attention to the sustainability of US mortgage and consumer debt.", "zh": "他们尤其应当对美国抵押贷款和消费者债务的可持续性给予更多的关注。", "index": 366}
{"en": "In 2007, the mortgage and consumer debt-to-GDP ratio was more than 90%, compared to 24% for net foreign debt.", "zh": "在2007年，上述两项负债与GDP的比率已经上升到90%以上，而与此同时净外债的相关比率只有24 % 。", "index": 367}
{"en": "Of course, the various components of debt differ considerably in their character and sources of financing – and thus in their sustainability.", "zh": "当然，债务的不同组成部分也因各自的特性和资金来源而大不相同 — — 而其可持续性也是如此。", "index": 368}
{"en": "But all parts of a country’s total debt and how it is financed are interconnected.", "zh": "但一国总债务的各个组成部分及其资助方式之间显然是有所关联的。", "index": 369}
{"en": "This means two things. First, funds from different sources of finance are interchangeable to a certain degree: deficiency of funds for one component of total debt can be supplemented by surplus funds originally aimed at financing other components.", "zh": "这意味着两点，首先：来自不同融资来源的资金在某种程度上是可互换的：总债务中某项资金出现的赤字可以用原本提供给其他用途的多余资金来填补。", "index": 370}
{"en": "Second, troubles in any single component of total debt will have an impact on all the other components.", "zh": "其二，总债务中某一部分所导致的问题将对其他部分造成影响。", "index": 371}
{"en": "After the subprime crisis erupted, mortgage and consumer debt was paid down by households either with their savings or by default.", "zh": "在次贷危机爆发之后，美国家庭只能用储蓄来支付抵押贷款和消费者债务，或者被迫放弃偿还。", "index": 372}
{"en": "The fall in US total debt, and the narrowing of the financing gap between total debt and domestic funds, led to a significant improvement in the US current-account deficit in 2008-2009, disproving US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke’s claim that the deficit was caused by a global “saving glut.”", "zh": "美国总债务的下降，以及总债务和国内资金之间财政缺口的缩窄，都使得美国经常账户赤字状况在2008-2009财年大大改善，也证明美联储主席伯南克宣称该赤字是由全球“储蓄偏好”所引发的观点是错误的。", "index": 373}
{"en": "Indeed, America’s current-account position strengthened despite the dollar’s appreciation in the face of safe-haven demand.", "zh": "事实上尽管美元在避险需求下升值，美国经常账户状况却得到了巩固。", "index": 374}
{"en": "Unfortunately, as a result of the private-sector deleveraging and an increase in household savings, the US economy, driven by debt and consumption, slid into recession.", "zh": "但不幸的是，随着私人部门去杠杆化以及家庭储蓄的增加，由负债和消费驱动的美国经济陷入了衰退。", "index": 375}
{"en": "To offset the negative impact of private-sector deleveraging on growth, the US government has maintained expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.", "zh": "为了减少私人部门去杠杆化对经济增长的负面影响，美国政府采取了一系列扩张性的货币和财政政策。", "index": 376}
{"en": "Now, with household debt sustained on a knife-edge after feverish government intervention, the fiscal position has deteriorated dramatically and the current-account balance has worsened again.", "zh": "如今政府大力干预后的家庭负债状况依然处于危险边缘，同时财政状况急剧恶化，经常账户平衡状况也再度变差。", "index": 377}
{"en": "Sustainability of public debt has replaced sustainability of private debt as the biggest threat to financial stability, and the focus of debate about the US current account has shifted from the sustainability of foreign debt to the impact of reducing the external deficit on growth and employment.", "zh": "公共债务的可持续性已经取代私人债务成为美国金融稳定的最大问题，而针对美国经常账户状况的争论焦点也从外债的可持续性转移到外部赤字降低对增长和就业的影响。", "index": 378}
{"en": "The dilemma facing US policymakers is how to stimulate growth while lowering the level of total debt.", "zh": "对此美国的政策制定者目前陷入了困境：一方面要促进增长，另一方面又得降低总债务水平。", "index": 379}
{"en": "The most important way to achieve both objectives is to increase exports by strengthening US competitiveness.", "zh": "而实现这两大目标的最重要方式就是透过提升美国国家竞争力的方式来增加出口。", "index": 380}
{"en": "But where will increased competitiveness come from?", "zh": "但这些竞争力的提升又从何而来？ ，", "index": 381}
{"en": "Devaluation of the dollar could improve US competitiveness in the short run, but it is not a solution.", "zh": "将美元贬值的做法能在短期内提升美国的竞争力，但却非长久之策。", "index": 382}
{"en": "Because rapid fiscal deterioration now has investors worrying about capital losses on US government securities, devaluation would make foreigners more hesitant to finance America’s budget deficit.", "zh": "因为财政状况的迅速恶化已经令投资者们对自己美国政府债券上的资本损失忧虑不已，此外贬值也将使外国人更不愿意资助美国的预算赤字。", "index": 383}
{"en": "If foreign financing is not forthcoming, yields on US government debt will rise and the US economy will fall back into recession.", "zh": "如果得不到外国资金，美国政府债务的收益率将被迫提升而美国经济也将重新陷入衰退。", "index": 384}
{"en": "In the long run, America’s growth pattern must undergo a structural shift from reliance on debt and consumption one based on Americans vaunted capacity for creativity and innovation.", "zh": "长期来说，美国的发展模式必须由原本对负债和消费的依赖转向美国人引以为荣的创新能力。", "index": 385}
{"en": "Only then will America improve its competitiveness enough to allow the government to reduce both private and public debt to sustainable levels while maintaining a respectable growth rate.", "zh": "只有这样美国才能真正提升其竞争力，并使政府可以在保持合理增长率的同时将私人和公共债务都降低到一个可持续的水平上。", "index": 386}
{"en": "But neither improved competitiveness, nor reduction of total debt, can be achieved overnight.", "zh": "但提升竞争力和减少总债务这两个目标都不可能一蹴而就。", "index": 387}
{"en": "In the short run, the US current-account deficit will remain, regardless of which country runs bilateral surpluses.", "zh": "无论对其拥有双边贸易顺差的是哪一个国家，美国的经常账户赤字将在短期内继续存在。", "index": 388}
{"en": "Thus, China’s continued reinvestment of its current-account surplus in US government securities is of utmost important for US growth and financial stability.", "zh": "因此中国将其贸易盈余持续投资在美国政府债券上的行为对美国的经济增长和金融稳定都是极为重要的。", "index": 389}
{"en": "Given that America benefits mightily from China’s purchases of US government securities, it is difficult to understand why the US government and Congress have been complaining so much about the bilateral current-account deficit.", "zh": "考虑到美国在中国购买美国国债方面获取的重大利益，我们很难理解美国政府和国会为何总是对中美双边经常账户赤字大肆抱怨。", "index": 390}
{"en": "It is also difficult to grasp why China is so reluctant to reduce its bilateral surplus, given meager returns on its massive holdings of US government securities and a sustained risk of large capital losses in the future.", "zh": "而于此同时，我们也难以解释中国为何不愿减少其双边贸易盈余，因为大规模持有美国政府债券回报极低，而且还存在着巨额资本流失风险。", "index": 391}
{"en": "The good news is that, following President Hu Jintao’s recent visit to Washington, both America and China have been taking positive steps to resolve their differences over the bilateral current-account balance.", "zh": "但好消息是，在中国国家主席胡锦涛最近的访美之行中，中美两国都在解决双边贸易不平衡方面做出了积极的举措。", "index": 392}
{"en": "That augurs well for a more rational and constructive Sino-American dialogue on global imbalances, which would certainly benefit the global economy.", "zh": "这预示着一个更加理性也更富建设性的中美全球贸易不平衡对话，而这也将对全球经济有所裨益。", "index": 393}
{"en": "A Banking Union Baby Step", "zh": "银行联盟第一步", "index": 394}
{"en": "BRUSSELS – At the beginning of the financial crisis, it was said that banks were, in Charles Goodhart’s crisp phrase, “international in life, but national in death.”", "zh": "布鲁塞尔—金融危机开始时，人们用查尔斯·古德哈特（Charles Goodhart）的名言来描述银行 ： “ 生而国际，死而民族。", "index": 395}
{"en": "At the time (2008-2009), large international banks had to be rescued by their home countries’ governments when they ran into trouble.", "zh": "”当是时（2008—2009年 ） ， 国际大银行在深陷困境时不得不由母国政府出手相救。", "index": 396}
{"en": "But the problem now in Europe is the opposite: banks are “national in life, but European in death.”", "zh": "但如今，欧洲的问题与此正好相反，银行“生而民族，死而欧洲 ” 。", "index": 397}
{"en": "In Spain, for example, local savings banks (cajas) financed an outsize real-estate boom.", "zh": "比如，在西班牙，地方储蓄银行是超级地产繁荣的融资提供者。", "index": 398}
{"en": "As the boom turned to bust, the losses threatened to overwhelm the capacity of the Spanish state, and the problem became European, because it threatened the very survival of the euro.", "zh": "随着繁荣变为萧条，由此产生的损失已快要超过了西班牙整个国家的能力，这一问题变成了欧洲问题，因为事关欧元存亡。", "index": 399}
{"en": "The Spanish case is symptomatic of a larger problem.", "zh": "西班牙的状况是一个更大问题的症状。", "index": 400}
{"en": "National supervisors always tend to minimize problems at home.", "zh": "国家层面的监管者总是试图最小化国内问题。", "index": 401}
{"en": "Their instinct (and their bureaucratic interest) is to defend their countries’ “national champion” bank(s) abroad.", "zh": "他们的本能（也是他们官僚主义利益之所在）是捍卫“国宝 ” （ national champion）银行在国外的表现。", "index": 402}
{"en": "But their resistance to recognizing problems at home runs even deeper.", "zh": "但他们对辨认国内问题的抵触更加严重。", "index": 403}
{"en": "Until recently, the Spanish authorities maintained that the problems in their country’s real-estate sector were temporary.", "zh": "直到最近，西班牙当局才不再坚持该国房地产部门问题不是暂时性的。", "index": 404}
{"en": "To acknowledge the truth would have meant admitting that for years they had overlooked the build-up of an unsustainable construction boom that now threatens to bankrupt the entire country.", "zh": "承认真相意味着多年来他们忽略了不可持续建设繁荣的风险，以至于如今整个国家都陷入了破产危险。", "index": 405}
{"en": "In the case of Ireland, the situation was initially not much different.", "zh": "在爱尔兰，最初的情况与西班牙并没有太大不同。", "index": 406}
{"en": "When problems started to surface, the finance minister at the time initially claimed that the country would carry out “the cheapest bank rescue ever.”", "zh": "当问题开始浮现时，时任财政部长宣称爱尔兰将实行“史上成本最小的银行救援 ” 。", "index": 407}
{"en": "Given national supervisors’ predictable tendency not to recognize problems at home, it seemed natural that the cost of cleaning up insolvent banks should also be borne at the national level.", "zh": "不难预料，国家级监管者总是倾向于对国内问题视而不见，因此，清算资不抵债银行的成本应该由各国自行承担似乎是自然而然的事情。", "index": 408}
{"en": "It thus seemed to make sense that even in the eurozone, banking supervision remained largely national.", "zh": "于是，即使是在欧元区，银行监管大体上仍维持各国各自为政的局面似乎也不无道理。", "index": 409}
{"en": "The recently created European Banking Authority has only limited powers over national supervisors, whose daily work is guided mainly by national considerations.", "zh": "新近成立的欧洲银行局所有用的权限比日常工作主要根据国内情况进行的国家级监管者大不了多少。", "index": 410}
{"en": "But reality has shown that this approach is not tenable.", "zh": "但现实已经证明，这条道路走不通。", "index": 411}
{"en": "Problems might originate at the national level, but, owing to monetary union, they quickly threaten the stability of the entire eurozone banking system.", "zh": "问题也许肇始于国家层面，但是，由于货币联盟的存在，它们很快会威胁到整个欧元区银行系统的稳定性。", "index": 412}
{"en": "At their June summit, Europe’s leaders finally recognized the need to rectify this situation, transferring responsibility for banking supervision in the eurozone to the European Central Bank.", "zh": "在6月峰会上，欧洲领导人最终意识到修正这一情况、将欧元区银行监管职能移交给欧洲央行的重要性。", "index": 413}
{"en": "Given that financial integration is particularly strong within the monetary union, putting the ECB in charge was an obvious choice.", "zh": "作为货币联盟，金融一体化在欧元区非常牢固，这使得欧洲央行成了不二之选。", "index": 414}
{"en": "Moreover, the ECB already bears de facto responsibility for the stability of the eurozone’s banking system.", "zh": "此外，欧洲央行事实上早已承担起了维持欧元区银行系统稳定的职能。", "index": 415}
{"en": "But, until now, it had to lend massive amounts to banks without being able to judge their soundness, because all of that information was in the hands of national authorities who guarded it jealously and typically denied problems until it was too late.", "zh": "但是，迄今为止，欧洲央行仍必须在无法判断银行稳健程度的情况下向它们大规模贷款，因为所有信息都掌握在国家级监管者手中，而后者对此死抓不放，出了问题总是拼命掩盖，直到无法收场为止。", "index": 416}
{"en": "Putting the ECB in charge should also help to stop the creeping disintegration process, which is not publicly visible, but is very real nonetheless.", "zh": "让欧洲央行来行使此职能还有助于阻止正在潜滋暗长的去一体化过程，该过程尽管还没有进入公众视野，但已成为现实威胁。", "index": 417}
{"en": "Just ask any of the large international banking groups headquartered in financially stressed eurozone countries.", "zh": "只消问问坐落于受困欧元区国家的任何大型国际银行集团总部便可推知一二。", "index": 418}
{"en": "Consider the case of a bank headquartered in Italy, but with an important subsidiary in Germany.", "zh": "就拿总部设在意大利的某家一行来说吧，这家银行在德国设有一家重要分行。", "index": 419}
{"en": "The German operations naturally generate a surplus of funds (given that savings in Germany far exceed investment on average).", "zh": "德国分行自然手握资金盈余（因为平均而言德国储蓄远高于投资 ） 。", "index": 420}
{"en": "The parent bank would like to use these funds to reinforce the group’s liquidity.", "zh": "总行希望使用这笔资金增强整个集团的流动性。", "index": 421}
{"en": "But the German supervisory authorities consider Italy at risk and thus oppose any transfer of funds there.", "zh": "但德国监管当局认为意大利存在风险，因此反对资金转移。", "index": 422}
{"en": "The supervisor of the home country (Italy) has the opposite interest.", "zh": "母国（意大利）监管者的利益正好与此相反。", "index": 423}
{"en": "It would like to see the “internal capital market” operate as much as possible.", "zh": "它希望看到“内部资本市场”操作，越多越好。", "index": 424}
{"en": "Here, too, it makes sense to have the ECB in charge as a neutral arbiter with respect to these opposing interests.", "zh": "在这里，让欧洲央行来充当尊重这些对立利益的中立仲裁者才是合适的。", "index": 425}
{"en": "But, while putting the ECB in charge of banking supervision solves one problem, it creates another: can national authorities still be held responsible for saving banks that they no longer supervise?", "zh": "但是，尽管让欧洲央行行使银行监管职能可���解决问题，但也会造成另一个问题：国家级监管当局是否需要继续对其不再行使监管职能的储蓄银行负责？", "index": 426}
{"en": "Economic (and political) logic requires that the eurozone will soon also need a common bank rescue fund.", "zh": "经济（和政治）逻辑意味着很快欧元区又需要一个共同银行援助基金。", "index": 427}
{"en": "Officially, this has not yet been acknowledged.", "zh": "这一需要尚未被正式承认。", "index": 428}
{"en": "But that is often the way that European integration proceeds: an incomplete step in one area later requires further steps in related areas.", "zh": "但此乃欧洲一体化进程中的典型做法：在某领域出台的不完整措施要求在相关领域出台后续措施。", "index": 429}
{"en": "This incremental approach has worked well in the past; indeed, today’s European Union resulted from it.", "zh": "这一增量办法在过去效果甚丰；事实上，今天的欧盟就是这样产生的。", "index": 430}
{"en": "But a financial crisis does not give policymakers the time that they once had to explain to voters why one step required another.", "zh": "但金融危机使得决策者不再像过去那样有时间向选民解释为什么一项措施会带来另一项措施。", "index": 431}
{"en": "They will have to walk much more quickly to save the euro.", "zh": "他们需要大大加快动作不乏，这样才能拯救欧元。", "index": 432}
{"en": "The Renewed Promise of Abenomics", "zh": "安倍经济学的新一轮承诺", "index": 433}
{"en": "TOKYO – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party scored a decisive victory in the December 14 parliamentary election, with Japanese voters demonstrating their overwhelming approval of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s macroeconomic policy agenda.", "zh": "发自东京 — — 日本自民党在今年12月14日的国会大选中取得了决定性的胜利，因为日本选民们一面倒地支持首相安倍晋三的宏观经济政策议程。", "index": 434}
{"en": "Though voter turnout was relatively low, owing largely to the somewhat technical nature of the issues, the election’s message was clear: most Japanese abhor the prospect of a return to the grim economic trajectory that prevailed in Japan before “Abenomics.”", "zh": "虽然选民投票率还是相对较低 — — 这在很大程度上源自于这类事务的某种技术性本质 — — 但这场选举所传达出来的信息也非常清晰：大多数日本人都不愿意回到“安倍经济学”之前那种低迷经济轨道中去。", "index": 435}
{"en": "When the first “arrow” of Abenomics – a fiscal stimulus program – was launched nearly two years ago, asset markets' immediate response was positive.", "zh": "当安倍经济学的第一支箭 — — 财政刺激计划 — — 在两年前射出之后，资产市场立刻作出了积极回应。", "index": 436}
{"en": "The second arrow of Abenomics – monetary easing – intensified these effects.", "zh": "而安倍经济学的第二支箭 — — 货币宽松 — — 则强化了这一效应。", "index": 437}
{"en": "In the last two years, Japan’s stock market has almost doubled in value, increasing the wealth of Japanese consumers.", "zh": "在过去两年中，日本股票市场的市值几乎翻了一倍，使消费者的财富得到了增长。", "index": 438}
{"en": "Moreover, the yen has fallen by nearly one-third against the US dollar, from around ¥80 to nearly ¥120 per dollar, invigorating Japan’s export industries.", "zh": "此外，日元对美元贬值了近三分之一，从原来的约80日元兑1美元下降到近120日元，令日本的出口工业蓬勃发展。", "index": 439}
{"en": "Even more encouraging are developments in the labor market, which, unlike those in asset markets, reflect outcomes, not expectations.", "zh": "更令人鼓舞的则是劳动力市场的变化发展，跟资产市场不同的是，这反映出了结果，而非仅仅是预期。", "index": 440}
{"en": "Here, too, the news is good.", "zh": "在这方面形势也十分喜人。", "index": 441}
{"en": "The labor market has tightened, with unemployment standing at 3.5% and the job-to-applicant ratio above parity.", "zh": "劳动力市场得到了巩固，失业率维持在3.5 % ， 而职位和求职者的比率则高于1。", "index": 442}
{"en": "To be sure, there have been some setbacks: Japan’s GDP shrank in the second and third quarters of 2014.", "zh": "无可否认，这其中还存在的一些挫折：日本的GDP在第二和第三季度出现了收缩。", "index": 443}
{"en": "But the downturn, which resulted from April’s consumption-tax hike – from 5% to 8% – cannot be blamed on Abenomics.", "zh": "但这一由于四月份提升消费税（从5%提到8 % ） 所导致的下滑状况不能归罪于安倍经济学。", "index": 444}
{"en": "Indeed, Abe was honoring a law enacted by the previous government, led by the Democratic Party of Japan.", "zh": "事实上，安倍只是在遵从由上届日本民主党政府所通过的一项法律而已。", "index": 445}
{"en": "The first two arrows of Abenomics were aimed at stimulating demand – and they were extremely effective.", "zh": "安倍经济学的头两支箭都旨在刺激需求 — — 而且也极为有效。", "index": 446}
{"en": "The consumption-tax hike was needed to sustain them in flight. Unfortunately, the hike was too large to keep them aloft.", "zh": "同时也需要提升消费税来维持这两支箭的顺利飞行，但不幸的是，此次提升的幅度过大，反而对这两项政策造成了阻碍。", "index": 447}
{"en": "The good news is that the tax hike’s impact is temporary. Soon, it will begin to taper off, and industrial output will approach full capacity.", "zh": "好消息是增税的影响只是暂时的，并将很快开始逐渐消失，而工业产量则会接近满负荷。", "index": 448}
{"en": "When demand begins to exceed supply, demand-side stimulus policies will become increasingly ineffective, and it will be time to launch the third arrow of Abenomics: growth-enhancing structural reforms.", "zh": "当需求开始超过供给的时候，需求端的刺激政策将逐渐变得无效，是时候射出安倍经济学的第三支箭：强化增长的结构性改革。", "index": 449}
{"en": "Such reforms are essential to raise productivity growth and improve the Japanese economy’s competitiveness.", "zh": "为了提升生产力增长并改善日本的经济竞争力，这类改革极有必要。", "index": 450}
{"en": "Four imperatives stand out.", "zh": "而其中则凸显出四项要点：", "index": 451}
{"en": "The first task should be to eliminate – or, at least, reduce – the thicket of government regulations that is stifling economic dynamism.", "zh": "首要任务应当是消除 — — 或至少要减少 — — 遏制经济活力的一大堆政府管制。", "index": 452}
{"en": "The current system is so convoluted and complex that it took more than three decades to open a new medical school in Tokyo.", "zh": "现行的系统是如此的繁琐复杂，以致在东京开设一所新医学院需要花费超过30年时间。", "index": 453}
{"en": "Likewise, flights to Haneda airport, a convenient connection to the Tokyo city area, have been rationed.", "zh": "同样，飞往羽田机场这个通往东京市区的便利转接点的航班也受到限制。", "index": 454}
{"en": "This is no formula for long-term economic success.", "zh": "这显然不是一个促进长期经济繁荣的做法。", "index": 455}
{"en": "Furthermore, Japan’s government should push to complete negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is currently being negotiated among 12 countries, from Mexico to the United States to Vietnam.", "zh": "此外，日本政府应当加紧完成跨太平洋伙伴计划的谈判。 目前已经有十二个国家参与该项谈判，涵盖从墨西哥到美国再到越南的广大区域。", "index": 456}
{"en": "The TPP would improve Japan’s trade prospects considerably, including in sensitive sectors like agriculture, where exports of fast-moving consumer goods like flowers and vegetables would benefit.", "zh": "这一伙伴计划极大提升日本的贸易前景，包括像在农业这样的敏感部门，因为像鲜花和蔬菜之类快速消费品的出口将因此而受益。", "index": 457}
{"en": "Japan’s leaders must also work to expand the workforce, which faces severe constraints, owing largely to the country’s rapidly aging population.", "zh": "日本领导人也必须扩大由于本国的快速老龄化而面临严重制约的劳动力队伍。", "index": 458}
{"en": "In the absence of large-scale immigration, to which Japanese remain unamenable, one relatively simple solution would be to integrate more women into the labor force.", "zh": "在缺乏大规模移民，日本又不准备开放移民的情况下，一个相对简单的解决方案将是把更多的女性融入劳动力大军。", "index": 459}
{"en": "A 10% increase in Japan’s female labor-force participation rate – an entirely attainable goal – would translate into an almost 5% gain in total labor-force participation.", "zh": "如果日本的女性劳动力参与率能提升10 % — —这是一个完全可以实现的目标 — — 那就将把整体的劳动力参与率提升近5 % 。", "index": 460}
{"en": "Finally, Abe’s government must reduce the corporate-tax rate to align it more closely with international standards.", "zh": "最后安倍政府必须削减企业税率，使其与国际标准接轨。", "index": 461}
{"en": "Amid increasingly intense international competition to attract foreign investment, reducing the corporate tax would actually increase Japan’s tax revenues, by spurring companies to invest their vast cash stockpiles in more productive activities.", "zh": "在国际间日渐激烈的外国投资争夺战中，通过驱使企业将自身的巨额现金储备投入到更具生产力的活动当中，减少企业税率将在事实上增加日本的税收收入。", "index": 462}
{"en": "Now that Abe’s government has a renewed mandate from Japanese voters, it must deliver on its promises – and that means decisive and comprehensive implementation of structural reforms.", "zh": "如今安倍政府已经获得了日本选民的新一轮授权，也必须兑现自己的承诺 — — 这意味着坚定而全面地实施结构改革。", "index": 463}
{"en": "Of course, this will require some sacrifices.", "zh": "这当然需要作出某些牺牲。", "index": 464}
{"en": "Indeed, households have already endured some hardship, brought about by the consumption-tax hike.", "zh": "事实上日本家庭已经在承受着因为消费税提升而带来的艰难状况。", "index": 465}
{"en": "The next step is for Abe’s government to use its political capital to overcome vested interests, both in the bureaucracy and the business community.", "zh": "而安倍政府的下一步则是利用自身的政治资本去制服既得利益阶层 — — 包括政界与商界。", "index": 466}
{"en": "This means compelling businesses to give up some of the special tax benefits they now enjoy.", "zh": "这意味着迫使企业放弃某些目前享有的特殊税务优惠。", "index": 467}
{"en": "For their part, politicians must participate in the taxpayer identification system.", "zh": "政治家则必须参与到纳税人识别体系中来。", "index": 468}
{"en": "And bureaucrats must forego some of the power that excessive regulation affords them.", "zh": "而政府官员们则要放弃路管制所赋予他们的某些权利。", "index": 469}
{"en": "If all of these groups join the Japanese public in accepting reasonable sacrifices, Abe’s government can fulfill its promise and build a thriving economy.", "zh": "如果上述这些团体能和日本民众一道接受和承担合理的牺牲，安倍政府就能兑现自身的承诺并建立一个兴旺繁荣的经济。", "index": 470}
{"en": "For the sake of all Japanese – not to mention a world economy in need of a new source of dynamism – that promise deserves to be met.", "zh": "为了日本的整体利益 — — 不要说一个需要新动力来源的世界经济 — — 这个承诺值得去兑现。", "index": 471}
{"en": "The Missing Arrow of Abenomics", "zh": "安倍经济学的迷失之箭", "index": 472}
{"en": "TOKYO – In his drive to kick-start the Japanese economy, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shortly after taking office in 2012, introduced a large fiscal stimulus and put in place a bold program of monetary easing.", "zh": "东京—日本首相安倍晋三在2012年执政后不久就开始了振兴日本经济的政策，他引入了大规模财政刺激和激进的货币宽松计划。", "index": 473}
{"en": "Since then, Japanese policymakers have been working to launch what Abe calls the third “arrow” of his agenda: arduous reforms of key industries and the demolition of structural barriers to growth.", "zh": "此后，日本决策者一直致力于启动安倍所谓的第三支“箭 ” ： 重要行业的艰巨改革计划以及破除增长的结构性壁垒。", "index": 474}
{"en": "But the focus on public policy has left a “fourth arrow” – the private sector – untouched and seemingly ignored.", "zh": "但专注于公共政策让“第四支箭 ” — —私人部门 — — 被冷落一旁，似乎遭到了忽略。", "index": 475}
{"en": "This is unfortunate, because the government cannot fix Japan’s ills on its own.", "zh": "这是不幸的，因为政府无法单枪匹马治好日本病。", "index": 476}
{"en": "Annual productivity growth has been stubbornly sluggish, rarely rising above 2% for much of the past two decades, reflecting both missed opportunities and declining cost competitiveness.", "zh": "年生产率增长极其低迷，在过去20年中的大部分时间里还不到2 % ， 这表明机会被错失，成本竞争力在下降。", "index": 477}
{"en": "Japan’s productivity slump permeates the entire economy; labor and capital productivity gains have nearly stalled in almost every sector – even in Japan’s signature advanced manufacturing industries.", "zh": "日本生产率大降是整个经济的普遍现象；几乎所有部门的劳动和资本生产率都近乎停滞 — — 即使是日本标志性的发达的制造业。", "index": 478}
{"en": "Labor productivity in the transport-equipment sector, for example, is barely half that of Germany.", "zh": "比如，运输设备劳动生产率大约只有德国的一半。", "index": 479}
{"en": "This trend puts annual GDP growth on course to average only 1.3% through 2025, implying a third consecutive decade of stagnation.", "zh": "这一趋势意味着到2025年，日本年GDP增长率平均将只有1.3 % ， 连续第三个十年陷入停滞。", "index": 480}
{"en": "Such an outcome would coincide with – and exacerbate the effects of – an adverse demographic shift that will constrain fiscal revenues and drive up costs for universal health care and pension benefits.", "zh": "这一结果恰逢不利的人口趋势 — — 并将放大后者的效应 — — 制约财政收入，增加全民医疗和退休金福利的成本。", "index": 481}
{"en": "Japan’s ability to alter its trajectory depends on individual companies making decisions to invest, change workplace policies, deploy new technologies, and test untried business models.", "zh": "日本能否摆脱这一轨道取决于个体公司决定投资、改变工作场所政策、采用新技术以及尝试未尝试的业务模式。", "index": 482}
{"en": "Abe’s structural reforms will take time and political will to enact, but Japanese companies cannot afford to sit still.", "zh": "安倍的结构改革需要时间，还需要实施的政治意愿，但日本公司决不能坐等。", "index": 483}
{"en": "They can and must act, without waiting for the government to change its policies.", "zh": "它们能够也必须行动起来，不必等政府改变政策。", "index": 484}
{"en": "In many cases, the economy’s bottlenecks are not regulatory in nature, but stem from entrenched ways of doing business.", "zh": "在许多情形中，经济瓶颈并非监管，而是来自根深蒂固的生意经。", "index": 485}
{"en": "New research by the McKinsey Global Institute examines Japan’s advanced manufacturing, retail, financial services, and health-care industries in detail – and finds substantial untapped productivity potential in every area.", "zh": "麦肯锡全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）的新研究详细考察了日本发达的制造业、零售业、金融服务业和医疗业 — — 发现这些领域无不存在巨大的未利用生产率潜力。", "index": 486}
{"en": "For starters, Japanese firms must become more globally integrated.", "zh": "首先，日本企业必须更加融入全球。", "index": 487}
{"en": "Exporting to the fastest-growing overseas markets is one obvious route to overcoming sluggish demand growth at home.", "zh": "向增长最快的海外市场出口显然是克服国内需求增长停滞的一个办法。", "index": 488}
{"en": "But, rather than just selling products abroad, Japanese enterprises need to expand operations beyond their borders and cast a wider net for international talent.", "zh": "但是，日本企业所需要的不仅仅是将产品卖到海外，还需要扩大海外经营，组织更广阔的国际人才网。", "index": 489}
{"en": "Japanese companies have formidable R&D operations, but most will need to reconfigure them to obtain better returns and impact.", "zh": "日本公司拥有可怕的研发部门，但大部分需要重组以获得更好的回报和影响。", "index": 490}
{"en": "The process must start with an understanding of what the customer wants and a determination to deliver solutions accordingly.", "zh": "这一过程必须首先理解客户想要什么并决心据此提供解决方案。", "index": 491}
{"en": "Closed and tightly managed R&D operations must be transformed into more fluid, open processes involving collaboration with customers and suppliers.", "zh": "管理严格的封闭研发业务必须变得更具流动性、更加开放，把客户和供应商也包括进来。", "index": 492}
{"en": "Japanese companies will also need to improve their capabilities in areas such as marketing, pricing, and talent development.", "zh": "日本公司还需要提高营销、定价和人才开发等领域的能力。", "index": 493}
{"en": "While there are some pockets of excellence, most Japanese firms are severely lacking in these areas.", "zh": "尽管在这些领域表现出众的日本企业不少，但大部分仍严重缺乏这方面的能力。", "index": 494}
{"en": "To compete in global markets, they will need to achieve the same consistency in these areas that they have in their traditional areas of strength.", "zh": "要想在全球市场上竞争，它们需要实现与传统优势领域同样的一致性。", "index": 495}
{"en": "Many Japanese companies have yet to digitize paper-based processes and replace outdated information-technology systems.", "zh": "许多日本公司至今仍未实现纸面流程的数字化和更新过时的信息技术系统。", "index": 496}
{"en": "Others would benefit from moving beyond basic digitization to next-generation technologies, such as big-data analytics.", "zh": "其他公司可以跨越基本数字化，向新一代技术（如大数据分析）迈进，并从中获益。", "index": 497}
{"en": "Companies can also head off looming labor shortages with intelligent software systems and robotics.", "zh": "公司还可以用智能软件系统和机器人解决劳动力短缺的问题。", "index": 498}
{"en": "Manufacturers can augment or replace their assembly lines with technologies such as the Internet of Things and 3D printing.", "zh": "制造商可以用物联网和3D打印等技术扩大或代替流水线。", "index": 499}
{"en": "More broadly, Japanese companies have to organize for performance and discipline.", "zh": "更广泛地说，日本公司必须以业绩和纪律为目标进行组织。", "index": 500}
{"en": "As policy changes unleash market forces, businesses will face greater competition.", "zh": "随着政策变化解放市场力量，企业将面临更大的竞争。", "index": 501}
{"en": "Some may need to reorganize or exit unprofitable markets; others may have to undertake mergers and acquisitions to achieve economies of scale.", "zh": "一些企业也许需要重组或退出无利可图的市场；令一些企业也许必须进行兼并收购以实现规模经济。", "index": 502}
{"en": "Finally, shareholders and senior executives should tie performance goals to incentives.", "zh": "最后，股东和高管应该将业绩目标与激励挂钩。", "index": 503}
{"en": "Some of Japan’s corporate giants have already begun shifting from traditional seniority-based advancement toward merit-based pay structures.", "zh": "一些日本大公司以开始将基于传统年资的晋升模式改变为基于表现的薪酬结构。", "index": 504}
{"en": "Others should follow their lead.", "zh": "其他公司应该效仿。", "index": 505}
{"en": "Promoting younger and more diverse talent can create agile organizations with fresh ideas.", "zh": "提拔更年轻、更多样化的人才能够用新思维为组织注入活力。", "index": 506}
{"en": "If Japan’s private sector rises to the challenge, it can move the economy onto a path of faster growth.", "zh": "如果日本私人部门奋起迎接挑战，可以推动经济走上更快的增长路径。", "index": 507}
{"en": "Innovations in one company would cascade across its entire industry by forcing competitors to raise their game.", "zh": "一家公司的创新奖迫使竞争者更加投入竞争，从而提升整个行业。", "index": 508}
{"en": "In the 1950s and 1960s, for example, Toyota introduced more efficient production processes that were eventually adopted by the entire automobile industry.", "zh": "比如，20世纪五六十年代，丰田引入了效率更高的生产流程，并最终被整个汽车行业所采用。", "index": 509}
{"en": "Instead of settling for a future of 1.3% annual GDP growth, Japan could attain roughly 3% annual growth through 2025.", "zh": "日本不应该满足于1.3%的未来年GDP增长率，它可以到2025年实现大约3%的年增长率。", "index": 510}
{"en": "Doing so would require the growth rate of labor productivity to more than double, but this is an attainable goal.", "zh": "这样做要求劳动力生产率翻一番以上，但仍是可实现的目标。", "index": 511}
{"en": "More than half of this growth increment can be met by adopting best practices that companies around the world already use, while technology can close much of the remaining gap.", "zh": "一大半增长增量可以通过采取全球公司已在使用的最佳实践实现，而技术可以填补大部分余下的空缺。", "index": 512}
{"en": "Japanese business leaders need to combine big thinking with a focused attention to detail.", "zh": "日本商界领袖需要将大局观和细节专注结合起来。", "index": 513}
{"en": "They will need to create innovative products, penetrate new markets, and make bold investments in equipment, technology, and talent, while simultaneously scrutinizing every aspect of their operations for inefficiency and waste.", "zh": "他们需要创造创新性产品，渗透新市场，积极地投资于设备、技术和人才，同时仔细检视经营的每个方面以发现低效和浪费。", "index": 514}
{"en": "Traditional ways of doing business may have to be abandoned.", "zh": "传统生意经必须抛弃。", "index": 515}
{"en": "But there is ample scope to make progress and spur faster economic growth.", "zh": "但取得进步、刺激更快经济增长的空间很大。", "index": 516}
{"en": "Immense trade flows, the rise of billions of new consumers in the emerging world, and technology breakthroughs are rapidly transforming the global economy.", "zh": "巨大的贸易流、新兴世界数十亿新消费者的崛起以及技术突破正在快速改变全球经济。", "index": 517}
{"en": "Japan can shift its current trajectory by turning this wave of disruption into opportunity.", "zh": "日本可以将这一破坏潮转化为机遇，摆脱当前的轨迹。", "index": 518}
{"en": "From Russia With Unrequited Love", "zh": "对俄罗斯的单恋", "index": 519}
{"en": "NEW DELHI – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times in four years.", "zh": "新德里—日本首相安倍晋三孜孜不倦地讨好俄罗斯总统普京，在四年内和他进行了十多次会晤。", "index": 520}
{"en": "This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of Nagato (famed for its onsen, or natural hot springs).", "zh": "这个月，他在东京和家乡山口县（以温泉闻名）接待了普京。", "index": 521}
{"en": "But Abe’s courtship has so far yielded little for Japan, and much for Russia.", "zh": "但安倍的追求没有给日本带来什么好处，倒是给俄罗斯送去了很多利益。", "index": 522}
{"en": "Abe’s diplomatic overtures to Putin are integral to his broader strategy to position Japan as a counterweight to China, and to rebalance power in Asia, where Japan, Russia, China, and India form a strategic quadrangle.", "zh": "安倍对普京的外交姿态是他的战略大局的一部分：将日本定位为中国的制衡力量和亚洲的再平衡力量。 日本、俄罗斯、中国和印度组成了一个亚洲战略四边形。", "index": 523}
{"en": "Abe has already built a close relationship with India, and he sees improved relations with Russia – with which Japan never formally made peace after World War II – as the missing ingredient for a regional power equilibrium.", "zh": "安倍已经建立了与印度的紧密关系，并将改善对俄关系 — — 二战后日本从未与俄罗斯媾和 — — 视为地区实力平衡的缺失的一角。", "index": 524}
{"en": "But Abe’s trust-building efforts with Russia are not aimed only at checking Chinese aggression.", "zh": "但安倍与俄罗斯构建信任的努力不仅是为了制衡中国的野心。", "index": 525}
{"en": "He also wants Russia to return its southernmost Kuril Islands – a resource-rich area known as the Northern Territories in Japan – which the Soviet Union seized just after the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.", "zh": "他还希望俄罗斯归还千岛群岛最南端拥有丰富资源的北方四岛。 1945年美国在广岛和长期投下原子弹后，苏联占领了这四个岛屿。", "index": 526}
{"en": "In exchange, Abe has offered economic aid, investments in Russia’s neglected Far East, and major energy deals.", "zh": "作为交换，安倍提出向俄罗斯提供经济援助、投资被忽视的远东地区以及能源大单。", "index": 527}
{"en": "Abe has, however, encountered several obstacles.", "zh": "但是，安倍面临着多重阻碍。", "index": 528}
{"en": "For starters, Japan is a participant in the US-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia after it annexed Crimea in March 2014.", "zh": "首先，日本是以美国为首的对俄制裁的参与者。", "index": 529}
{"en": "These sanctions have pushed Russia closer to its traditional rival, China; and Putin has publicly identified the sanctions as a hindrance to concluding a peace treaty with Japan.", "zh": "制裁自2014年3月俄罗斯入侵克里米亚后开始实施，这让俄罗斯与其传统对手中国越走越近；而普京公开表示制裁是日俄缔结和平条约的障碍。", "index": 530}
{"en": "In response to Abe’s overtures, Putin has doggedly tried to drive a hard bargain.", "zh": "作为对安倍的姿态的回应，普京一直奉行强硬的讨价还价。", "index": 531}
{"en": "Russia has bolstered its defenses on the four disputed islands, and, just prior to this month’s summit, he told the Japanese media that the current territorial arrangement suits Russian interests.", "zh": "俄罗斯加强了其在北方四岛的防御部署，而在本月峰会前夕普京告诉日本媒体，目前的领土状况符合俄罗斯利益。", "index": 532}
{"en": "“We think that we have no territorial problems,” he said. “It’s Japan that thinks that it has a territorial problem with Russia.”", "zh": "“我们认为我们没有领土问题 ， ” 他说 ， “ 只是日本认为它和俄罗斯之间存在领土问题。", "index": 533}
{"en": "The US-led sanctions regime and low oil prices have battered the Russian economy, which is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2016.", "zh": "以美国为首的制裁和低油价打击了俄罗斯经济，预计2016年俄罗斯经济将收缩0.8 % 。", "index": 534}
{"en": "Thus, Putin is more reluctant than ever to offer territorial concessions, lest it tarnish his domestic image as a staunch defender of Russian national interests.", "zh": "因此，普京更加不愿意在领土问题上让步，唯恐玷污其俄罗斯国家利益坚定捍卫者的国内形象。", "index": 535}
{"en": "Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that Abe left the recent “onsen summit” with dashed hopes of resolving the territorial dispute, while Putin returned home with 68 new commercial accords.", "zh": "在这样的背景下，安倍在“温泉峰会”解决领土争议的希望破灭，而俄罗斯带着68份新商业协议回国，这一结果一点都不令人惊讶。", "index": 536}
{"en": "Many of the new agreements are symbolic, but some are substantive, including deals worth $2.5 billion and an agreement to set up a $1 billion bilateral-investment fund.", "zh": "新协议中不少是象征性的，但也有一些是实质性的，包括一份价值25亿美元、成立一个10亿美元双边投资基金的协议。", "index": 537}
{"en": "Under the latter agreement, Japan and Russia are supposed create a “special framework” for joint economic activities on the disputed islands.", "zh": "在后一份协议中，日本和俄罗斯将建立一个“特殊框架”管理争议岛屿上的经济活动。", "index": 538}
{"en": "But the plan has already run into trouble.", "zh": "但该计划已经遇到了麻烦。", "index": 539}
{"en": "Peter Shelakhaev, a senior Russian official who leads the government’s Far East Investment and Export Agency, has indicated that there are legal hurdles to establishing such a framework, and that Japanese firms doing business on the Kurils would have to pay taxes to Russia.", "zh": "俄罗斯政府远东投资和出口局（Far East Investment and Export Agency）主管彼得·舍拉哈耶夫（Peter Shelakhaev）表示建立这一框架存在法律障碍，在南千岛群岛经营的日本企业必须向俄罗斯纳税。", "index": 540}
{"en": "If Japan did that, however, it would effectively be recognizing Russia’s jurisdiction over the islands.", "zh": "但是，如果日本照办，就等于承认了俄罗斯对这些岛屿的司法管辖权。", "index": 541}
{"en": "Abe has thus been denied the legacy that he sought, while Putin has succeeded in easing Russia’s international isolation.", "zh": "因此，安倍想要的东西被拒绝了，而普京成功地缓解了俄罗斯的孤立。", "index": 542}
{"en": "Abe was the first G7 leader to hold a summit with Putin after Russia annexed Crimea, and now Russia has won Japan’s economic cooperation, too.", "zh": "安倍是俄罗斯吞并克里米亚后第一位与普京举行峰会的G7领导人，眼下俄罗斯赢得了日本的经济合作。", "index": 543}
{"en": "Japan is the only G7 country that has a territorial dispute with Russia, and it is clearly more eager to reach a deal than the Kremlin is.", "zh": "日本是唯一一个与俄罗斯存在领土纠纷的G7国家，并且它显然比克里姆林宫更渴望达成协议。", "index": 544}
{"en": "But this has only strengthened Russia’s hand.", "zh": "但这正中俄罗斯下怀。", "index": 545}
{"en": "While Japan has softened its position, and signaled that it may accept only a partial return of the islands, Russia has grown only more intransigent.", "zh": "日本立场有所软化，并且释放出信号可以接受局部归还争议岛屿，而俄罗斯的立场变得更加强硬。", "index": 546}
{"en": "After the recent summit, Abe revealed that Putin now seems to be reneging on a 1956 agreement between Japan and the Soviet Union, which stipulates that the smaller two of the four islands will be returned to Japan after a peace treaty is signed.", "zh": "最新峰会后，安倍透露普京似乎否1956年日本与苏联签订的协议，该协议规定北方四岛中较小的两个将在日俄缔结和平条约后归还日本。", "index": 547}
{"en": "As it happens, this year marks the 60th anniversary of that joint declaration, which was widely viewed as a breakthrough at the time.", "zh": "今年是这一联合声明签署60周年，当时，这份声明被广泛视为是一个突破。", "index": 548}
{"en": "The Kremlin is now suggesting that its commitment to fulfilling the declaration was conditional on Japan not joining any security alliance against Russia.", "zh": "如今，克里姆林宫表示它是否会兑现声明的条件是日本不加入针对俄罗斯的安全联盟。", "index": 549}
{"en": "And Putin has expressed concerns that the 1960 Japan-US Security Treaty would extend to the disputed islands if they were returned, thus allowing the US to establish a military presence there.", "zh": "普京还表示担心，1960年日美安全条约范围将扩大到归还的两岛，从而美国也能够在那里部署军事设施。", "index": 550}
{"en": "Japan is in no position to address Russia’s concerns.", "zh": "日本没有为俄罗斯解决担忧的立场。", "index": 551}
{"en": "It cannot opt out of the US-led sanctions regime; and it cannot exempt the disputed Kurils from its security treaty with the US, especially now that it has been urging the US to provide an explicit commitment to defend the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, over which China claims sovereignty.", "zh": "它不能选择跳出美国领导的制裁；也不能让争议的北方四岛不受日美安全条约的管辖，特别是在如今日本一直在敦促美国就捍卫日本控制、中国主张主权的钓鱼岛做出明确承诺的时候。", "index": 552}
{"en": "Putin, for his part, appears smugly content with his negotiating position.", "zh": "至于普京，他似乎对他的谈判立场相当满意。", "index": 553}
{"en": "Not only did he arrive almost three hours late to the onsen summit, in keeping with his habit of leaving foreign leaders waiting; he also declined a Japanese government gift – a male companion for his native Japanese Akita dog, which Japan gave him in 2012.", "zh": "在温泉峰会上，他迟到了三小时，延续了他让外国领导人等他的习惯；还拒绝了日本政府的礼物 — — 为日本2012年送给他的日本秋田犬配一只雄性伴侣。", "index": 554}
{"en": "There is little hope now that Abe will see tangible returns on the political capital he has invested in cultivating Putin.", "zh": "如今，安倍为讨好普京而掷下的政治资本基本上是打了水漂。", "index": 555}
{"en": "And Japan’s dilemma will only deepen.", "zh": "而日本的困境反而更加深化了。", "index": 556}
{"en": "US President-elect Donald Trump’s desire to improve relations with Russia may give Abe leeway to continue wooing Putin; but if Russia gets the US in its corner, it won’t need Japan anymore.", "zh": "美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普准备缓和对俄关系或许有利于安倍继续讨好普京；但如果俄罗斯得到了美国，就再也不需要日本了。", "index": 557}
{"en": "A Berlin Consensus?", "zh": "柏林共识?", "index": 558}
{"en": "HONG KONG – A recent trip to Berlin brought back memories of an earlier visit in the summer of 1967, when I was a poor student who marveled at the Wall that would divide and devastate an entire society for another two decades.", "zh": "发自香港 — — 最近的柏林之行令我回想起了自己的上一次到访，那是1967年的夏天，作为一个穷学生的我，在那堵还将继续分割和压抑整个德国社会20多年的高墙前震惊不已。", "index": 559}
{"en": "Berlin today is vibrant and rejuvenated, rebuilt by the German peoples' hard work and sacrifice to unify the country, and an apt setting for the conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), which I was there to attend.", "zh": "如今在德国人民的艰苦努力以及为统一做出的牺牲之下，柏林早已生机勃勃，重现往日活力，此外新经济思维研究中心（Institute for New Economic Thinking）会议适当的议题设置对此也有贡献，而本人正是来参加这场会议的。", "index": 560}
{"en": "The conference’s theme was “Paradigm Lost,” with more than 300 economists, political scientists, systems analysts, and ecologists gathering to rethink economic and political theory for the challenges and uncertainty posed by growing inequality, rising unemployment, global financial disarray, and climate change.", "zh": "会议的主题是“范式的失落 ” ， 超过300位经济学家，政治科学家，系统分析者和生态学者齐聚一堂，讨论当今日渐恶化的不平等状况、失业率升高，全球金融紊乱和气候变化等问题所引发的挑战以及不确定性，并重新思考与之对应的经济和政治理论。", "index": 561}
{"en": "Almost everyone agreed that the old paradigm of neoclassical economics was broken, but there was no agreement on what can replace it.", "zh": "几乎所有与会代表都赞同一点，那就是新古典主义经济学的旧有范式已经失效，但在何种范式可以取而代之这一点上却未能达成共识。", "index": 562}
{"en": "Nobel laureate Amartya Sen attributed the European crisis to four failures – political, economic, social, and intellectual.", "zh": "诺贝尔经济学奖得主阿马蒂亚·森（Amartya Sen）在会上指出，欧洲的危机源自于四个方面的失效 — — 政治、经济，社会和智力层面。", "index": 563}
{"en": "The global financial crisis, which began in 2007 as a crisis of US subprime lending and has broadened into a European sovereign-debt (and banking) crisis, has raised questions that we cannot answer, owing to over-specialization and fragmentation of knowledge.", "zh": "这场全球金融危机 — — 始于2007年美国次级贷危机并最终扩大成为欧洲主权债务（及银行）危机 — — 提出了一些我们无法回答的问题，而其原因则是知识的过度专业化和碎片化。", "index": 564}
{"en": "And yet there is no denying that the world has become too intricate for any simple, overarching theory to explain complex economic, technological, demographic, and environmental shifts.", "zh": "同时也无可否认，我们的世界已经变得极端复杂，以致无法用任何简单且高度概括性的理论去解释在经济、技术，人口构成以及环境方面的所发生的复杂转变。", "index": 565}
{"en": "In particular, the rise of emerging markets has challenged traditional Western deductive and inductive logic.", "zh": "尤其重要的是，新兴市场的崛起使西方的演绎和归纳逻辑遭到了挑战。", "index": 566}
{"en": "Deductive inference enables us to predict effects if we know the principles (the rule) and the cause.", "zh": "演绎推理使我们在知道原理（法则）和起因的情况下可以预测出结果。", "index": 567}
{"en": "By inductive reasoning, if we know the cause and effects, we can infer the principles.", "zh": "而通过使用归纳法，我们则可以在知道前因后果的情况下推断出中间的原理。", "index": 568}
{"en": "Eastern thinking, by contrast, has been abductive, moving from pragmatism to guessing the next steps.", "zh": "相比之下，东方的思考方式则是溯因式的，从实用主义出发去猜测下一步该如何行动。", "index": 569}
{"en": "Abductive inference is pragmatic, looking only at outcomes, guessing at the rule, and identifying the cause.", "zh": "溯因推理注重实效，只关注结果，通过结果来猜想原理，再由此确定原因。", "index": 570}
{"en": "Like history, social-scientific theory is written by the victors and shaped by the context and challenges of its time.", "zh": "以历史为例，社会-科学理论是由胜利者撰写的，同时也受到特定时代背景和当时（社会主要）矛盾的影响。", "index": 571}
{"en": "Free-market thinking evolved from Anglo-Saxon theorists (many from Scotland), who migrated and colonized territories, allowing fortunate individuals to assume that there were no limits to consumption.", "zh": "自由市场理念演化自盎格鲁-撒克逊理论家（其中许多来自苏格兰 ） ， 他们不断移居和殖民新的地域，让那些拥有财富的个人觉得消费是会无限增长的。", "index": 572}
{"en": "European continental thinking, responding to urbanization and the need for social order, emphasized institutional analysis of political economy.", "zh": "而欧洲大陆的思想则主要服务于城市化以及对社会秩序的追求，因此强调对政治经济的体制性分析。", "index": 573}
{"en": "Thus, the emergence of neoclassical economics in the nineteenth century was very much influenced by Newtonian and Cartesian physics, moving from qualitative analysis to quantifying human behavior by assuming rational behavior and excluding uncertainty.", "zh": "因此，新古典主义经济学在19世纪的崛起在很大程度上都是受到了牛顿和笛卡尔流派物理学的影响，从定性分析转向对人类行为的定量分析，假设这些行为都是理性的同时不断对不确定性加以排除。", "index": 574}
{"en": "This “predetermined equilibrium” thinking – reflected in the view that markets always self-correct – led to policy paralysis until the Great Depression, when John Maynard Keynes’s argument for government intervention to address unemployment and output gaps gained traction.", "zh": "这一“预先设定的均衡”理念 — — 认为市场总能自我纠正 — — 导致了政策瘫痪，直到大萧条来袭，而约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）则因此提出政府应当出手干涉失业问题，而产出与消费之间的差距问题也得到了重视。", "index": 575}
{"en": "By the 1970’s, the neoclassical general-equilibrium school captured Keynesian economics through real-sector models that assumed that “finance is a veil,” thereby becoming blind to financial markets’ destabilizing effects.", "zh": "到了1970年代，新古典主义总体均衡学派通过一个假设“金融只是一张包装纸”的实体部门模型说服了凯恩斯主义者，并因此令他们对金融市场的不稳定作用一无所知。", "index": 576}
{"en": "Economists like Hyman Minsky, who tried to correct this, were largely ignored as Milton Friedman and others led the profession’s push for free markets and minimal government intervention.", "zh": "海曼·明斯基（Hyman Minsky）这样的经济学家尝试去纠正这一错误，但当时领导经济学界的是米尔顿·弗里德曼等自由市场和最小政府的鼓吹者，于是明斯基之辈也只能默默无闻了。", "index": 577}
{"en": "But then technology, demographics, and globalization brought dramatic new challenges that the neoclassical approach could not foresee.", "zh": "但随后出现的科技，人口分布特征和全球化则令新古典经济学派迎来了意料之外的挑战。", "index": 578}
{"en": "Even as the world’s advanced countries over-consumed through leveraging from derivative finance, four billion of the world’s seven billion people began moving to middle-income status, making huge demands on global resources and raising the issue of ecological sustainability.", "zh": "随着全球发达国家通过金融衍生品提供的杠杆来实现过度消费，世界70亿人口中有40亿开始进入中等收入状态，不但对全球资源造成了巨大需求，也催生了环境生态的可持续发展问题。", "index": 579}
{"en": "New thinking is required to manage these massive and systemic changes, as well as the integration of giants like China and India into the modern world.", "zh": "我们需要新的思维来应对这些大规模且系统性的变革需要，同时也需要把中国和印度这样的大国整合进入现代世界。", "index": 580}
{"en": "A change of mindset is needed not just in the West, but also in the East.", "zh": "不但西方需要转换思维，东方也是如此。", "index": 581}
{"en": "In 1987, the historian Ray Huang explained it for China:", "zh": "为此历史学家黄仁宇早在1987年就针对中国进行了论述：", "index": 582}
{"en": "“As the world enters the modern era, most countries under internal and external pressure need to reconstruct themselves by substituting the mode of governance rooted in agrarian experience with a new set of rules based on commerce.…This is easier said than done.", "zh": "“随着世界进入现代时期，大多数承受着内部和外部压力的国家都必须对自身进行重建，用基于商业的一套法则来取代原���构建于农业经验之上的管治模式 … … 但这是件知易行难的事。", "index": 583}
{"en": "The renewal process could affect the top and bottom layers, and inevitably it is necessary to recondition the institutional links between them.", "zh": "整个更新过程将影响到上下两个阶层，并不可避免地需要重新修复两者之间的体制联系。", "index": 584}
{"en": "Comprehensive destruction is often the order; and it may take decades to bring the work to completion.”", "zh": "全面破坏将成为常态；而且往往需要数十年来完成这项工作。", "index": 585}
{"en": "Using this macro-historical framework, we can see Japanese deflation, European debt, and even the Arab Spring as phases of systemic changes within complex structures that are interacting with one another in a new, multipolar global system.", "zh": "利用微历史的框架，我们可以看到一个新的，多极化全球体系之中存在着许多不断产生互动的复杂结构，而日本通胀，欧洲债务甚至阿拉伯之春则可被视为这些结构内部某一阶段的系统性变革。", "index": 586}
{"en": "We are witnessing simultaneous global convergence (the narrowing of income, wealth, and knowledge gaps between countries) and local divergence (widening income, wealth, and knowledge gaps within countries).", "zh": "我们正见证着各种同时进行中的全球收敛现象（各国之间收入，财富和知识差距的不断收窄）以及本地分化现象（各国内部收入，财富和知识差距的不断加大 ） 。", "index": 587}
{"en": "Adaptive systems struggle with order and creativity as they evolve.", "zh": "适应性系统在演化的过程中会不断在秩序和创新性之间左右摇摆。", "index": 588}
{"en": "As the philosopher Bertrand Russell presciently put it: “Security and justice require centralized governmental control, which must extend to the creation of a world government if it is to be effective.", "zh": "正如英国哲学家伯特兰·罗素（Bertrand Russell）所预见的那样 ： “ 安全与正义要求集权化的政府控制，而这个系统如果要达到有效的话就势必要扩张成为一个全球政府。", "index": 589}
{"en": "Progress, on the contrary, requires the utmost scope for personal initiative that is compatible with social order.”", "zh": "相反，进步则要求实现一个与社会秩序相容的，最大范围的个人主动性。 ”", "index": 590}
{"en": "A new wave of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter famously called “creative destruction” is under way: even as central banks struggle to maintain stability by flooding markets with liquidity, credit to business and households is shrinking.", "zh": "一个被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼得（Joseph Schumpeter）称之为“创造性破坏”的新浪潮已经涌现：即便中央银行奋力通过向市场注入大量流动性来保持稳定，对企业和家庭的信贷依然不断紧缩。", "index": 591}
{"en": "We live in an age of simultaneous fear of inflation and deflation; of unprecedented prosperity amid growing inequality; and of technological advancement and resource depletion.", "zh": "我们生活在一个对通胀和通缩的两大恐惧同时并存的时代；既有前所未有的繁荣，又有不断扩大的不平等；一方面科技进步，另一方面则存在资源枯竭。", "index": 592}
{"en": "Meanwhile, existing political systems promise good jobs, sound governance, a sustainable environment, and social harmony without sacrifice – a paradise of self-interested free riders that can be sustained only by sacrificing the natural environment and the welfare of future generations.", "zh": "与此同时，现有的政治系统既不愿意做出牺牲，却又承诺会提供好工作，优秀管治，可持续环境和社会和谐 — — 这是一个自私自利的搭便车者梦想的天堂，但代价则是牺牲了自然环境以及子孙后代的福祉。", "index": 593}
{"en": "We cannot postpone the pain of adjustment forever by printing money.", "zh": "我们不能通过印钞的方式永远推迟承担适应变革所带来的阵痛。", "index": 594}
{"en": "Sustainability can be achieved only when the haves become willing to sacrifice for the have-nots.", "zh": "只有当既得利益者愿意为非既得利益者做出牺牲的时候，可持续性才可能实现。", "index": 595}
{"en": "The Washington Consensus of free-market reforms for developing countries ended more than two decades ago.", "zh": "针对发展中国国家自由市场改革的华盛顿共识已经在20年前达成。", "index": 596}
{"en": "The INET conference in Berlin showed the need for a new one – a consensus that supports sacrifice in the interest of unity.", "zh": "而柏林新经济思维研究中心会议则显示我们需要一个新的共识 — — 为了团结统一而做出牺牲。", "index": 597}
{"en": "Europe could use it.", "zh": "欧洲当采用之。", "index": 598}
{"en": "Accepting Japan at Its Word", "zh": "接受日本的用词", "index": 599}
{"en": "TOKYO – In recent years, the number of tourists visiting Japan has been increasing rapidly, reaching a record 13.4 million last year, a 29% increase from 2013.", "zh": "东京—近几年来，访日游客数量迅速增长，去年创出1,340万人次新高，比2013年增加29 % 。", "index": 600}
{"en": "Japan seems to be making great strides toward its goal of recapturing the position as an Asian cultural center that it held a century ago, when the Indian Nobel laureate poet Rabindranath Tagore lived in Tokyo.", "zh": "日本似乎正在大踏步向重新成为亚洲文化中心的目标迈进。 一百年前，也就是印度诺贝尔奖诗人泰戈尔生活在东京的时候，日本曾经是亚洲文化中心。", "index": 601}
{"en": "Chinese revolutionary leaders Sun Yat-sen and Chiang Kai-shek, along with many other prominent Asians, moved there as well.", "zh": "中国革命领袖孙中山和蒋介石以及其他诸多亚洲名人也纷纷来到日本。", "index": 602}
{"en": "Anyone visiting Japan today would do well to learn two key words: domo, meaning “hello,” “thanks,” or “well,” and sumimasen, which can carry any of the meanings of domo, as well as “sorry” or “excuse me.”", "zh": "如今，所有来日旅客都会学会两个关键词 ： “ 多末 ” ， 意思是“你好 ” 、 “谢谢”或“很好 ” ； 以及“斯米马赛 ” ， 它包括了domo的全部含义，还可以表达“对不起”和“劳驾 ” 。", "index": 603}
{"en": "Ordinary Japanese say sumimasen countless times each day, to apologize to friends or strangers for even the most trivial accident or mistake.", "zh": "普通日本人每天都要说无数次“斯米马赛 ” ， 有一点点事情或犯一点点错误就用这个词向朋友或陌生人致歉。", "index": 604}
{"en": "But, as Japan’s leaders have experienced firsthand since World War II, expressing regret to other countries is not so simple.", "zh": "但是，自二战以来，日本领导人真切地感受到，向其他国家表达悔恨之情并不那么简单。", "index": 605}
{"en": "Yet that is precisely what Prime Minister Shinzo Abe must do in his upcoming statement marking the 70th anniversary of the end of the war.", "zh": "但这正是首相安倍晋三在即将到来的二战结束70周年纪念讲话中所要做的。", "index": 606}
{"en": "The statement will be based on consultations with many of Japan’s, and the world’s, leading WWII historians, as well as – and more important – with himself, his conscience, and his heart, because he understands the significance of his words on this highly fraught topic.", "zh": "该讲话将以诸多日本乃至全球著名二战史家的意见为基础，但更重要的是安倍本人、他的良知和他的用心，因为他明白，在这个高度敏感的话题上，他的用语意义重大。", "index": 607}
{"en": "Of course, Abe is far from the first Japanese leader to confront this challenge.", "zh": "当然，安倍绝非首位面临如此挑战的日本领导人。", "index": 608}
{"en": "His statement will follow a long line of declarations by prime ministers and chief cabinet secretaries expressing sincere remorse over the events of WWII.", "zh": "在他以前，无数首相和内阁官方长官都对二战中所发生的事件表达了诚挚的忏悔。", "index": 609}
{"en": "Twenty years ago, Prime Minister Tomiichi Murayama, the head of the Socialist Party, acknowledged that “Japan, through its colonial rule and aggression, caused tremendous damage and suffering to the people of many countries,” particularly in Asia.", "zh": "二十年前，时任首相、社会党党首村山富市承认“日本的殖民统治和侵略给许多国家的人民造成了严重伤害和苦难 ， ” 特别是亚洲国家。", "index": 610}
{"en": "He went on to express “feelings of deep remorse” and offer a “heartfelt apology” to the victims.", "zh": "他接着表示“感到深深的忏悔 ” ， 向受害者致以“衷心的歉意 ” 。", "index": 611}
{"en": "Ten years later, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reiterated Murayama’s words, adding that since the war, Japan had been “manifesting its remorse for the war through actions,” especially development assistance and humanitarian activities.", "zh": "十年后，小泉纯一郎首相重申了村山的歉词，并说二战结束以来日本一直在“用行动表达对战争的忏悔 ， ” 特别是发展援助和人道主义行动。", "index": 612}
{"en": "Koizumi also pledged that “Japan, as a peace-loving nation, will work to achieve peace and prosperity for all humankind with all its resources.”", "zh": "小泉还承诺“日本是热爱和平的国家，将尽其所能致力于实现全人类的和平与繁荣。 ”", "index": 613}
{"en": "Despite these straightforward declarations of regret, some governments and citizens continue to demand more, giving the impression that nothing a Japanese leader says or does will convince them of the country’s remorse.", "zh": "尽管日本做出了这些直白的忏悔，但一些政府和人民仍不满足，给人们一种日本领导人的所作所为并没有让他们感到日本的悔意的印象。", "index": 614}
{"en": "This intractability is, in some cases, understandable; the pain of survivors and their descendants remains acute.", "zh": "从某种程度上，这个棘手问题不难理解；幸存者及其后代的痛苦依然剧烈。", "index": 615}
{"en": "But in many other cases, the unwillingness to move beyond history is driven by political interests.", "zh": "但在某些情形中，不愿抛弃历史恩怨是因为政治利益。", "index": 616}
{"en": "Indeed, political motivations are behind claims that Abe does not agree with past official apologies, despite his repeated assurances that he does, as well as suggestions that he is seeking to revise history, even though he has never denied Japan’s colonial aggression.", "zh": "事实上，声称安倍不同意此前的官方道歉（尽管他一再保证他同意此前的道歉 ） ， 其背后便是政治动机；同样，认为安倍试图推翻历史（尽管他从未否认日本的殖民侵略 ） ， 其背后也是政治动机。", "index": 617}
{"en": "Moreover, some have produced portrayals of Japan, as a whole, as an unrepentant country – or, worse, as one that is hell-bent on remilitarization.", "zh": "此外，一些人将日本的整体形象刻画为一个冥顽不灵的国家 — — 更有甚者，说日本铁了心要重走军国主义老路。", "index": 618}
{"en": "Such depictions are breathtaking in their audacity, given Japan’s seven-decade record as a peaceful and constructive member of the international community.", "zh": "这样的描述不可不谓厚颜无耻，因为七十年来日本一直是国际社会和平而具有建设性的成员。", "index": 619}
{"en": "This is not lost on those in Japan who ask for how long their country will have to apologize, with some even suggesting that after 70 years, a “tweet” on the subject should amount to adequate acknowledgement by Abe.", "zh": "对于一些质问祖国究竟需要道歉多长时间的日本人来说，这一点很重要，有人甚至认为，70年后，关于该主题的一条“推特”应该足以让安倍认识到这一点。", "index": 620}
{"en": "The prime minister, however, remains committed to issuing a strong and sincere statement on the subject.", "zh": "但是，首相仍决定就该主题发表强烈而诚挚的讲话。", "index": 621}
{"en": "Early this year, Abe announced his intention to use the 70th anniversary statement to communicate Japan’s remorse for the war, describe the progress the country has made in upholding peace, and describe the contributions that Japan can make to Asia and the rest of the world in the coming decades.", "zh": "今年年初，安倍宣布他将在70周年讲话中表达日本对战争的忏悔，描述日本在支持和平方面所取得的进步，并表达日本可以在未来几十年对亚洲和世界其他地区的和平所做的贡献。", "index": 622}
{"en": "In fact, it is the third component of the announcement that inspires fear in some observers: By helping to build a strong security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan could undermine the ability of some actors to advance their own interests.", "zh": "事实上，第三部分引起了一些观察者的担忧：通过帮助亚太地区构建强大的安全结构，日本可能破坏某些行动方主张自身利益的能力。", "index": 623}
{"en": "That is why they launched a whisper campaign against Abe’s statement months before he even began to write it.", "zh": "因此，它们用谣言攻击安倍的讲话，哪怕距离讲话时间还有几个月之久、演讲词都没有开始撰写。", "index": 624}
{"en": "But, of course, Asian security and prosperity is in everyone’s interest.", "zh": "但是，亚洲的安全与繁荣当然事关所有人的利益。", "index": 625}
{"en": "Given this, not even the language of Abe’s statement is particularly important; what matters is the determination he expresses, and the actions he takes to follow through – with appropriate humility – on his pledges.", "zh": "因此，即便安倍讲话的用词并非十分重要，重要的是他所表达的决心，以及他（以合适的谦逊态度）拿出怎样的行动。", "index": 626}
{"en": "And it seems that Abe is, indeed, determined to make real contributions to peace, based on effective cooperation with Japan’s friends and allies.", "zh": "事实上，安倍似乎决心要在与日本友邦和盟国进行有效合作的基础上为和平做出真正的贡献。", "index": 627}
{"en": "But if Asia is to move beyond its past, the victims of Japan’s wartime aggression must recognize that the Japan of 2015 is not the Japan of 1931, 1941, or even 1945, and that, as many Asian leaders have realized over the years, forgiveness benefits everyone.", "zh": "但如果亚洲要超越历史恩怨，日本战时侵略的受害者就必须承认2015年的日本不是1931、1941乃至1945年的日本，并且，如许多亚洲领导人在过去几年中所认识到的，原谅可以给所有人带来好处。", "index": 628}
{"en": "In 1998, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung responded positively to a statement by former Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi.", "zh": "1998年，韩国总统金大中对前日本首相小渊惠三的讲话予以积极回应。", "index": 629}
{"en": "The governments of Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries have done the same, and now welcome Japan’s commitment to act with its allies to protect regional security.", "zh": "印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南和其他国家也是如此，现在它们都欢迎日本与盟国携手保护地区安全的承诺。", "index": 630}
{"en": "These countries’ openness to reconciliation have enabled Japan to recast itself as a key arbiter of regional peace and prosperity, not to mention an increasingly dynamic cultural hub.", "zh": "这些国家对和解的开放态度让日本重新铸造其地区和平与繁荣重要仲裁者的形象，更不用说活力日盛的文化枢纽了。", "index": 631}
{"en": "It is time for the rest of the region to follow suit, accepting at face value Japan’s sincere apologies and working with the country to build a better future.", "zh": "该地区其他国家也应该效而仿之，按字面意思接受日本诚挚的道歉，与日本共同建设更美好的未来。", "index": 632}
{"en": "At a time when Asia is facing serious security challenges, this stance could not be more urgent.", "zh": "在亚洲面临严重安全挑战的当下，这一立场无比紧要。", "index": 633}
{"en": "A Big Chance for Small Farmers", "zh": "小农迎来大机遇", "index": 634}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The G-8’s $20 billion initiative on smallholder agriculture, launched at the group’s recent summit in L’Aquila, Italy, is a potentially historic breakthrough in the fight against hunger and extreme poverty.", "zh": "纽约 — — 八国集团不久前在意大利拉奎拉峰会上启动的200亿美元小农援助计划或许是战胜饥饿和极端贫困的一次历史性的突破。", "index": 635}
{"en": "With serious management of the new funds, food production in Africa will soar.", "zh": "如果这笔新资金能得到认真的管理，非洲的粮食生产将会大幅度增加。", "index": 636}
{"en": "Indeed, the new initiative, combined with others in health, education, and infrastructure, could be the greatest step so far toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals, the internationally agreed effort to reduce extreme poverty, disease, and hunger by half by 2015 .", "zh": "实际上，这项新计划和其他医疗、教育、基础设施计划一起，有可能成为迄今为止实现千年发展目标的最有效举措，千年发展目标国际协议规定到2015年将极端贫困、疾病和饥饿人口减少到原来的半数。", "index": 637}
{"en": "During 2002-2006, I led the United Nations Millennium Project, which aimed to achieve the Millennium Development Goals, for then-UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.", "zh": "2002至2006年，我为实现千年发展目标，在时任联合国秘书长科菲·安南管理下领导联合国千年发展项目。", "index": 638}
{"en": "One cornerstone of the project was “smallholder farmers,” meaning peasant farm families in Africa, Latin America, and Asia – working farms of around one hectare (2.5 acres) or less.", "zh": "“小农”是这个项目的基础 ， “ 小农”一词是非洲、拉美和亚洲耕种土地不超过1公顷（合2.5英亩）的农民家庭的代名词。", "index": 639}
{"en": "These are some of the poorest households in the world, and, ironically, some of the hungriest as well, despite being food producers.", "zh": "颇具讽刺意味的是，尽管自身也生产粮食，但他们却隶属于世界最贫困、最饥饿家庭的行列。", "index": 640}
{"en": "They are hungry because they lack the ability to buy high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and other tools needed to increase productivity.", "zh": "他们饥饿，是因为无力购买提高产量所需的高产种子、化肥、灌溉设备和其他工具。", "index": 641}
{"en": "As a result, their output is meager and insufficient for their subsistence.", "zh": "这导致农作物产量匮乏，根本不够维持生计。", "index": 642}
{"en": "Their poverty causes low farm productivity, and low farm productivity reinforces their poverty.", "zh": "他们的贫困造成农业生产率低下，而农业生产率低下又反过来加剧了贫困。", "index": 643}
{"en": "It’s a vicious circle, technically known as a poverty trap.", "zh": "这形成了恶性循环，技术上被称为贫困陷阱。", "index": 644}
{"en": "The UN Millennium Project’s Hunger Task Force, led by two world-leading scientists, M. S. Swaminathan and Pedro Sanchez, examined how to break this vicious circle.", "zh": "在两位世界著名科学家斯瓦米纳坦和佩德罗·桑切斯的领导下，联合国千年发展项目反饥饿工作组研究这种恶性循环应该如何打破。 工作组的结论是，如果以农业投入的方式向小农提供帮助，可能会大幅增加非洲粮食产量。", "index": 645}
{"en": "The Hunger Task Force determined that Africa could substantially increase its food production if help was given to smallholder farmers, in the form of agricultural inputs.  The Millennium Project recommended a big increase in global funding for this purpose.  Drawing on that work and related scientific findings, Annan launched a call in 2004 for an African Green Revolution, based on an expanded partnership between Africa and donor countries.", "zh": "千年计划建议大幅度增加对这方面的全球资助。 根据此项成果及相关的科学发现，安南在扩大非洲和捐助国合作规模的基础上，在2004年呼吁启动非洲绿色革命。", "index": 646}
{"en": "Many of us, notably current UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, have worked hard to make this possible, with Ban repeatedly emphasizing the special emergency arising from the global food, financial, and energy crises of the past two years.", "zh": "我们很多人，特别是现任联合国秘书长潘基文，为实现这一目标付出了艰苦的努力。 潘秘书长反复强调过去两年中全球粮食、金融和能源危机引发的特别问题。", "index": 647}
{"en": "The G-8 announcement reflects these years of effort, and of course the boost from the leadership of US President Barack Obama, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, World Bank President Robert Zoellick, European Commissioner Louis Michel, European Parliamentarian Thijs Berman, and others.", "zh": "八国集团声明反映了这些年的努力，其中当然离不开美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马、西班牙总理何塞·路易斯·萨帕特罗、澳大利亚总理陆克文、世界银行行长罗伯特·佐立克、欧盟专员路易·米歇尔、欧洲议会议员蒂伊斯·伯曼、还有其他人的领导作用。", "index": 648}
{"en": "Now the key is to make this effort work.", "zh": "现在的关键是要收到实效。", "index": 649}
{"en": "The lessons of history are clear.", "zh": "历史的教训显而易见。", "index": 650}
{"en": "Getting seed and fertilizer to smallholder farmers at highly subsidized prices (or even free in some cases) will make a lasting difference.", "zh": "向小农家庭发放含有大量补贴的种子和化肥（有时甚至是免费发放）将产生持续性效果。", "index": 651}
{"en": "Not only will food yields rise in the short term, but farm households will use their higher incomes and better health to accumulate all sorts of assets: cash balances, soil nutrients, farm animals, and their children’s health and education.", "zh": "不仅能在短期内提高粮食产量，而且能使农户利用高收入和更好的医疗积累各种财富：现金盈余、土壤养分、家畜、及其子女的医疗和教育。", "index": 652}
{"en": "That boost in assets will, in turn, enable local credit markets, such as micro-finance, to begin operating.", "zh": "资产的积累反过来会启动小额融资公司等当地信贷市场。", "index": 653}
{"en": "Farmers will be able to buy inputs, either out of their own cash, or by borrowing against their improved creditworthiness.", "zh": "农户可以依靠自有资金或资信改善来以贷款的方式购买农用物资。", "index": 654}
{"en": "A consensus has now been reached on the need to assist smallholders, but obstacles remain.", "zh": "目前已经就援助小农的必要性达成���一致，但在实际操作中还存在问题。", "index": 655}
{"en": "Perhaps the main risk is that the “aid bureaucracies” now trip over each other to try to get their hands on the $20 billion, so that much of it gets taken up by meetings, expert consultations, overhead, reports, and further meetings.", "zh": "现在主要的风险或许是“官僚援助体系”竭力争夺这200亿美元的经费，想把尽可能多的部分用于会议、专家咨询、管理费用、报告撰写以及组织更多的会议。", "index": 656}
{"en": "“Partnerships” of donors can become an expensive end in themselves, merely delaying real action.", "zh": "捐助国的“伙伴关系”自身又可能代价昂贵，而且除推迟实际行动外起不到任何作用。", "index": 657}
{"en": "If donor governments really want results, they should take the money out of the hands of thirty or more separate aid bureaucracies and pool it in one or two places, the most logical being the World Bank in Washington and the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) in Rome.", "zh": "如果捐助国政府真的看重结果，就应该从30家或者更多的独立官僚援助机构中把款项收回，集中交给一两家机构管理。 最顺理成章的管理机构是华盛顿世界银行和罗马联合国国际农业发展基金。", "index": 658}
{"en": "One or both of these agencies would then have an account with several billion dollars.", "zh": "这样这一两家机构就会拥有数十亿美元的扶贫账户。", "index": 659}
{"en": "Governments in hunger-stricken regions, especially Africa, would then submit national action plans that would provide details on how they would use the donor funds to get high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation, farm tools, storage silos, and local advice to impoverished farmers.", "zh": "饥荒地区，特别是非洲的政府，则需提交国家行动计划，提供他们打算如何利用捐助款项为贫困农民提供高产种子、化肥、灌溉、农机、仓库和咨询建议的细节。", "index": 660}
{"en": "An independent expert panel would review the national plans to verify their scientific and managerial coherence.", "zh": "将由独立的专家小组对国家计划的科学性和管理的连贯性进行评估。", "index": 661}
{"en": "Assuming that a plan passes muster, the money to support it would quickly be disbursed.", "zh": "如果计划通过了检验，支持计划的资金将迅速拨付到位。", "index": 662}
{"en": "Afterward, each national program would be monitored, audited, and evaluated.", "zh": "而后，将对每项国家计划进行监督、审计和评估。", "index": 663}
{"en": "This approach is straightforward, efficient, accountable, and scientifically sound.", "zh": "这种方法直接、有效、负责、有着不错的科学基础。", "index": 664}
{"en": "Two major recent success stories in aid have used this approach: the Global Alliance on Vaccines and Immunizations, which successfully gets immunizations to young children, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria, which supports national action plans to battle these killer diseases.", "zh": "最近两个成功的捐助案例就是使用的这种方法：其一是全球疫苗免疫联盟成功为儿童提供免疫服务，还有就是全球艾滋病、肺结核和疟疾基金为战胜上述致命疾病的国家计划提供了支持。", "index": 665}
{"en": "Both have saved millions of lives during the past decade, and have paved the way to a new more efficient and scientifically sound method of development assistance.", "zh": "过去10年来这两家机构都挽救了数百万人的生命，并为更高效、更科学合理的新的发展援助方法铺平了道路。", "index": 666}
{"en": "Not surprisingly, many UN agencies and aid agencies in rich countries fight this approach.", "zh": "很多联合国和富裕国家援助机构为此展开争夺，这并不值得大惊小怪。", "index": 667}
{"en": "All too often, the fight is about turf, rather than about the most effective way to speed help to the poor.", "zh": "但这种争夺常常是为了争权夺利，而不是以最有效的方法向贫困人口提供援助。", "index": 668}
{"en": "Obama, Rudd, Zapatero, and other forward-thinking leaders can therefore make a huge difference by following up on their pledges at the G-8 and insisting that the aid really works.", "zh": "奥巴马、陆克文、萨帕特罗和其他有远见的领导人因此可以通过兑现在八国峰会上的承诺、坚持要求实际援助效果带来巨大的变化。", "index": 669}
{"en": "The bureaucracies must be bypassed to get help to where it is needed: in the soil tilled by the world’s poorest farm families.", "zh": "必须绕过官僚机构为由世界最贫困的农民家庭所耕种的土地提供援助。", "index": 670}
{"en": "A Black and White Question", "zh": "黑白人种问题", "index": 671}
{"en": "NEW YORK – In the afternoon of July 16 two men appeared to be breaking into a fine house in an expensive area of Cambridge, Massachusetts.", "zh": "纽约 — — 7月16日下午两名男子看似正试图闯入位于马萨诸塞州坎布里奇高尚住宅区的一栋豪宅。", "index": 672}
{"en": "Alerted by a telephone call, a policeman arrived smartly on the scene.", "zh": "接到电话报警后，一名警察立即赶到了现场。", "index": 673}
{"en": "He saw one black male standing inside the house and asked him to come out.", "zh": "他看到一名黑人男子在房间里，就要求他出来。", "index": 674}
{"en": "The man refused.", "zh": "那个人拒绝了。", "index": 675}
{"en": "He was then told to identify himself.", "zh": "警察要求他说明身份。", "index": 676}
{"en": "The man, still refusing to step out, said he was a Harvard professor, showed his ID, and warned the cop not to mess with him.", "zh": "该男子仍然拒绝走出房门，但说自己是一位哈佛教授，出示了证件，并警告警察不要打扰他。", "index": 677}
{"en": "He said something about black men in America being singled out, and asked the cop, who was white, for his name and identification.", "zh": "他说美国黑人遭到歧视，并要求那位白人警察报名并出示警官证。", "index": 678}
{"en": "The cop, joined by several colleagues, arrested the professor for disorderly conduct.", "zh": "此时该警察的几名同事赶到，他们以妨害治安为由逮捕了这位教授。", "index": 679}
{"en": "We now know that the professor had broken into his own home, with the help of his chauffeur, because the door was jammed.", "zh": "我们现在知道这位教授在司机的帮助下闯入了自家的房门，因为门被卡住了。", "index": 680}
{"en": "What was unusual here was not the cop’s heavy-handedness.", "zh": "这次事件中不同寻常的并不是警察的暴虐。", "index": 681}
{"en": "Most people in the US know that if you talk back to the police, they will get nasty very fast.", "zh": "多数美国人都知道如果跟警察顶嘴，他们很快就会变得气急败坏。", "index": 682}
{"en": "The fact that the man was black might or might not have made the cop go for his handcuffs even sooner than he might normally have done.", "zh": "这位教授是黑人的事实可能有也可能没有导致警察更快地掏出手铐。", "index": 683}
{"en": "That, too, would not have been unusual.", "zh": "这一点也没有什么不同寻常。", "index": 684}
{"en": "What made this case special was that Henry Louis “Skip” Gates is one of the most celebrated professors in the country, famous for his books, his articles, and numerous television appearances.", "zh": "这个案件的特殊性在于亨利·路易斯·盖茨是美国最著名的教授之一，著作等身，文章充栋，并多次在电视上露面。", "index": 685}
{"en": "He is a grandee, a mover and shaker in the academic and media world, a friend of President Barack Obama.", "zh": "他称得上是位显贵，在学术和媒体圈中一呼百应，还与巴拉克·奥巴马总统私交甚笃。", "index": 686}
{"en": "That is why he warned the cop, Sgt. James Crowley, a veteran of the Cambridge police force, not to mess with him.", "zh": "他因此警告詹姆斯·克劳利中士，这位坎布里奇的老资格警官不要招惹他。", "index": 687}
{"en": "Class and race overlap in the US.", "zh": "美国的阶级和种族问题错综复杂。", "index": 688}
{"en": "In this instance, it is impossible to pry them apart.", "zh": "在这个案件中，不可能将它们区分清楚。", "index": 689}
{"en": "Gates, deeply conscious, indeed a specialist of the terrible history of race relations in his country, instinctively assumed that he was a victim of prejudice.", "zh": "盖茨非常了解美国糟糕的种族关系史，甚至可以说是这方面的专家，因此他本能地认为自己成了种族歧视的受害者。", "index": 690}
{"en": "From his words it appears that he was equally conscious of not getting the proper respect due to a distinguished Harvard professor and media celebrity.", "zh": "从他的话中还可以看出他因未能获得一位哈佛教授兼媒体名人应有的尊重而耿耿于怀。", "index": 691}
{"en": "As he put it to his daughter in an interview published online: “[Crowley] should have gotten out of there and said, ‘I’m sorry, sir, good luck.", "zh": "他在网上公布的一次采访中对自己的女儿说 ： “ [克劳利]当时应该对我说 ， ‘ 对不起，先生，祝您好运。 我喜欢您的[电视]系列片 — — 回头见！", "index": 692}
{"en": "Loved your [television] series—check with you later!’”", "zh": "’说完后立即离开。 ”", "index": 693}
{"en": "Alas, Sgt.Crowley had never heard of Professor Gates.", "zh": "唉，克劳利中士从来没有听说过盖茨教授的大名。", "index": 694}
{"en": "A local man whose brothers all serve in the police force, a sports fan, and an amateur basketball coach, Crowley does not move in the same social circles as Gates.", "zh": "作为一名兄弟都在警方供职的当地男性，一名体育爱好者，和一名业余篮球教练，克劳利和盖茨根本不属于同一个的社交圈。", "index": 695}
{"en": "As it happens, the charges were duly dropped, and there the case might have rested if President Obama, tired and frustrated after weeks of fighting for his healthcare bill, had not weighed in on behalf of his “friend” Gates, and called the police “stupid.”", "zh": "实际上，对盖茨的指控已被及时取消，如果不是奥巴马总统在因连续几周争取通过医疗法案未果而感到厌倦和沮丧时去替“老友”盖茨说话，将警方斥之为“愚不可及”的话，这个案件可能已经烟消云散了。", "index": 696}
{"en": "Both he and Gates then spoke of “learning” from the incident.", "zh": "然后他和盖茨都谈到了这次事件的“教训 ” 。", "index": 697}
{"en": "Gates might even be planning a television documentary on racial profiling.", "zh": "盖茨甚至可能正在筹划拍摄一部有关粗暴执法的电视纪录片。", "index": 698}
{"en": "One thing to be learned, if we didn’t know this already, is how close racial sensitivities are to the surface of US life, despite the election of a black president.", "zh": "如果我们还没有吸取这样的教训，那么这件事的教训之一就是告诉我们尽管选出了一位黑人总统，但种族敏感问题多么容易在美国生活中浮出水面。", "index": 699}
{"en": "The complexities of black anger, white guilt, and of black, and white fear, are so vexed that most Americans prefer not to talk about race at all.", "zh": "黑人的愤怒、白人的负疚、还有黑人和白人的恐惧是如此错综复杂，以致于多数美国人选择逃避种族话题。", "index": 700}
{"en": "The field is too full of mines.", "zh": "这片领域里有着太多的地雷。", "index": 701}
{"en": "One of Obama’s great achievements is that he made it into a serious topic through the brilliance and subtlety of his rhetoric.", "zh": "奥巴马最大的成就之一是他通过自己智慧巧妙的措辞，对绝大多数人讳莫如深的种族问题进行了严肃的探讨。", "index": 702}
{"en": "And there remains plenty to talk about: the grotesquely disproportionate number of black men in US prisons; the lack of educational opportunities in poor, mostly black areas; the appalling healthcare system; and the very real brutality used by police officers against blacks, who don’t have the privilege of a Harvard ID.", "zh": "可以谈论的话题还有很多：包括美国监狱中比例畸高的黑人在押犯、穷人聚居区、绝大部分是黑人聚居区教育机会的匮乏、可怕的医疗体制、以及警官对没有哈佛身份的黑人所采用的真实的暴力行径。", "index": 703}
{"en": "It is probably true that many white policemen, even if they are trained to avoid racial profiling, as Sgt. Crowley was, need to be convinced that a black man can be at home in one of the finer houses of Cambridge, or any other American city.", "zh": "也许的确需要说服像克劳利中士这样的许多白人警官，即便他们曾经接受过避免暴力执法的训练，黑人也可以居住在位于坎布里奇、或者其他任何美国城市的高尚住宅区的家中。", "index": 704}
{"en": "But is the Gates affair the right way to enter into this discussion?", "zh": "但盖茨事件是否是参与讨论的恰当方式？", "index": 705}
{"en": "One might argue that it was.", "zh": "您也许会说是。", "index": 706}
{"en": "If not Professor Gates, then who?", "zh": "如果不是盖茨教授，谁还能够引起关注？", "index": 707}
{"en": "Precisely because he is a grandee, he is in the position to draw national attention to a serious issue.", "zh": "正因为他是名人显贵，才能吸引全国民众关注这一严重的问题。", "index": 708}
{"en": "If the same thing had happened to an unknown man in Harlem, or some other poor, or predominantly black district, no one would ever have heard about it.", "zh": "如果同样的事情发生在哈莱姆区，或另外一个主要由黑人构成的穷人聚居区内一个无名小卒的身上，那么也许根本就不会有人知道。", "index": 709}
{"en": "The fact that it happened to a professor in Cambridge makes everyone sit up and take notice.", "zh": "这次事件发生在坎布里奇教授身上才吸引了人们的注意力。", "index": 710}
{"en": "There is, however, a danger that it will have an adverse affect on the necessary national discussion about race.", "zh": "但这个案件的确也存在着对有关种族的全国讨论产生负面影响的危险性。", "index": 711}
{"en": "By having made such a big issue out of what was in fact a relatively minor event Gates could be accused of trivializing much worse instances of abuse.", "zh": "因为把实际上不那么重要的问题过分夸大，盖茨可能受到将比这恶劣很多的滥用职权事件琐碎化的指责。", "index": 712}
{"en": "Indeed, we don’t even know for certain whether this was such an instance.", "zh": "事实上，我们根本不知道这个案件是否涉及到种族范畴。", "index": 713}
{"en": "Crowley never mentioned the color of Gates’ skin. There was no question of violence.", "zh": "克劳利自始至终从未提到过盖茨的肤色，也没有出现过任何暴力侵害行为。", "index": 714}
{"en": "There were just very raw nerves and hypersensitivity to hints of disrespect, on the part of the professor, and of the cop.", "zh": "只是教授和警察双方都对不尊重的暗示表现得过于敏感。", "index": 715}
{"en": "Outrage about a professor who is not to be messed with is not the best way to discuss the plight of countless, poor, anonymous people, whom most of us find it too easy to ignore.", "zh": "一位不愿受到打扰的教授的怒火并非探讨无数贫困的无名人士所处困境的最佳方式，这些无名的小人物太容易被我们所忽略。", "index": 716}
{"en": "A Bollywood Bride for Sarkozy?", "zh": "萨尔科奇的宝莱坞新娘", "index": 717}
{"en": "PARIS -- Ever since French President Nicolas Sarkozy took himself off his country’s most-eligible-bachelor list by publicly acknowledging his affair with supermodel-turned-pop-musician Carla Bruni during a romantic trip to Euro Disney, he’s run into trouble.", "zh": "巴黎 - - 自从法国总统萨尔科奇在欧洲迪斯尼的浪漫之旅期间公开承认与前超级模特、流行音乐歌手布吕尼的恋情而把自己从法国最受追逐的钻石王老五名单中除下后，他就沾染上了麻烦。", "index": 718}
{"en": "His ratings have dipped below 50% for the first time.", "zh": "他的民意指数第一次下降到50%以下。", "index": 719}
{"en": "Older French citizens don’t find the public spectacle of their leader in love very amusing.", "zh": "上年纪的法国人并不欣赏国家领导人公开展示恋情。", "index": 720}
{"en": "Abroad, Egyptian lawmakers were so exercised over the prospect of the French head of state sharing a bed with his girlfriend that several vented their disapproval on the floor of the parliament.", "zh": "在外国，几名埃及议员们对于法国国家元首同其女友同床共枕非常激动，乃至在国会上公开表示不满。", "index": 721}
{"en": "Likewise, India is all in a quandary over how to handle protocol during Sarkozy’s impending visit to the subcontinent as the guest of honor at the country’s Republic Day celebrations on January 26.", "zh": "同样，印度也对如何处理萨尔科奇即将作为国家贵宾参加该国1月26日的共和国日庆祝活动的礼宾问题为难。", "index": 722}
{"en": "Should the First Girlfriend have her own motorcade, as a first lady would?", "zh": "第一女友是否应当像第一夫人一样有自己的车队呢？", "index": 723}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the same hard-right Hindu groups that protest Valentine’s Day as a decadent Western holiday have warned that if Sarkozy arrives with his girlfriend in tow, they’ll be out in the streets to welcome him.", "zh": "极右翼印度教团体反对情人节，认为这是腐朽堕落的西方节日。 他们警告说，如果萨尔科奇带着女朋友来访，他们就会上街欢迎。", "index": 724}
{"en": "This controversy has threatened to cast a pall over a much-heralded summit between two of the world’s great democracies.", "zh": "这一争端已经威胁给大受赞扬的世界两大民主国家的峰会蒙上阴影。", "index": 725}
{"en": "With lucrative deals at stake for the big-ticket products that drive the French economy – military hardware, nuclear power plants, and Airbus planes – France has a strong interest in a successful summit in India.", "zh": "推动法国经济的的军火、核电站以及空中客车等大笔利润丰厚的交易取决于这一访问，因此，对于这次成功的印度之行，法国利益攸关。", "index": 726}
{"en": "So, as rumors fly of secret marriage ceremonies either already concluded or in the works, could the trouble brewing in India over the French president’s very public love life be behind the rush to have the couple legally wed?", "zh": "因此，当秘密婚礼已经完成或者正在准备的传言飞散之际，印度对于法国总统公共恋情满城风雨是否推动了二人结婚呢？", "index": 727}
{"en": "The news in Sarkozy’s favored media outlet Journal du Dimanche that the couple plan to marry touched off a flurry of fevered speculation on when the happy event might occur.", "zh": "萨尔科奇所喜欢的<<星期日>>杂志报导说两人打算结婚引发大众猜测婚礼究竟何时举行。 二人已经交换定情物。", "index": 728}
{"en": "The couple exchanged significant tokens of their mutual affection: he offered her a heart-shaped pink diamond ring by Dior, she offered him a Swiss watch.", "zh": "萨尔科奇给了布吕尼一个玫瑰色心形钻戒，而布吕尼则送给他一块瑞士名表。", "index": 729}
{"en": "It’s “serious,” the smitten president admitted.", "zh": "热恋中的法国总统承认这一恋情是“严肃认真”的。", "index": 730}
{"en": "But he refused, even under direct questioning by reporters, to reveal an exact date.", "zh": "但是他甚至在记者的直截了当的提问下也拒绝公开确切的日期。", "index": 731}
{"en": "“You’ll probably find out after it’s happened,” he taunted.", "zh": "他大声训斥说 ： “ 完事后你们也许就会知道了。", "index": 732}
{"en": "Rumor has it the couple has set February 8 or 9 for the wedding.   Others say that Sarkozy has already outsmarted the media by secretly marrying in the Elysee Palace, even as he was dodging wedding questions.", "zh": "”有传言说两人已经订下2月8日或者9日结婚。 还有人说萨尔科奇在回避结婚问题的时候已经在爱丽舍宫秘密结婚而让媒体扑空。", "index": 733}
{"en": "If that is true, then Sarkozy missed the romantic opportunity of a lifetime.", "zh": "如果确实如此，萨尔科奇就错过了一辈子才有一次的浪漫机会。", "index": 734}
{"en": "If the couple sizzled for cameras with Luxor and Petra as the backdrop, just imagine how hot things could get at the most romantic spot on Earth, the Taj Mahal.", "zh": "如果二人以埃及祖玛和约旦佩特拉为背景在镜头前任人拍照，那么，想像一下在世界上最为浪漫的地点印度泰姬陵前将会有多么热闹。", "index": 735}
{"en": "And, given the current rage for all things Bollywood in France, a lavish Indian wedding would be fitting.", "zh": "而且，鉴于法国目前对于印度的宝莱坞电影着迷，一场浪漫的印度婚礼将会再合适不过了。", "index": 736}
{"en": "Bruni’s own life path closely resembles any number of Bollywood stars who have made the transition from model to actress.", "zh": "布吕尼自身的生活道路也非常像宝莱坞明星那样从模特转到演员。", "index": 737}
{"en": "A comely brunette who sings is perfect for a Bollywood makeover.", "zh": "一个漂亮的褐色头发歌唱女郎对于宝莱坞化妆而言是再好不过的了。", "index": 738}
{"en": "The Indian government will be nothing if not relieved to see the first girlfriend made a wife.", "zh": "印度政府如果见到第一女友成为第一夫人而不感到如释重负就无足轻重了。", "index": 739}
{"en": "As one of India’s leading daily newspapers, the Indian Express, spelled it out, lest anyone be confused, “a girlfriend is not a wife or spouse.”", "zh": "印度最大的报纸之一印度快报怕有人不懂而指出 ， “ 女朋友不是妻子或配偶。", "index": 740}
{"en": "Once wed, all protocol worries about the French delegation would simply disappear.", "zh": "”一旦结婚，所有有关法国代表团礼宾问题的担心都将会烟消雾散。", "index": 741}
{"en": "Despite the sometimes downright pornographic on-screen writhing of Bollywood starlets, India is still a deeply conservative society.", "zh": "除了宝莱坞刚刚出道的女演员会在银幕上有一些露骨的色情折腾表演外，印度还是一个极为保守的社会。", "index": 742}
{"en": "Divorce is anathema. (Sarkozy is now twice divorced.)", "zh": "离婚是丢人现眼的事情(萨尔科奇现在已经两次离婚了 ) 。", "index": 743}
{"en": "And, while mistresses abound among the privileged classes, they do not strut publicly by their power-mates’ sides.", "zh": "而且，尽管有钱有势的人周围有不少情人，但是她们并不公开出现在这些人的周围。", "index": 744}
{"en": "Kissing and fondling in public, even by spouses, is taboo.", "zh": "公共场合下即使夫妻之间亲吻拥抱也是为社会所不容。", "index": 745}
{"en": "In this respect, India more resembles the France with which Sarkozy wants to make a clean break than the current one.", "zh": "在这一方面，印度倒像是萨尔科奇所想要决裂的法国，而不是当前的法国。", "index": 746}
{"en": "Most Indians, as it seems many French, would prefer not to shed the “hypocrisy” Sarkozy laments on the part of his predecessors (read: former French President François Mitterrand, who had a child with his mistress about whom the public knew nothing until the man’s funeral).", "zh": "在许多法国人看来，大多数印度人情愿不放下对萨尔科奇前任们的“伪善”指责(也就是，直到法国前总统密特朗葬礼时人们才知道他有一名情妇和私生女儿 ) 。", "index": 747}
{"en": "Sarkozy, of all people, should know that a large part of the gravitas of office derives from pomp and circumstance.", "zh": "萨尔科奇要比所有的人都应该知道总统职位份量的很大一部分来自于庄重和场合。", "index": 748}
{"en": "Statecraft is a realm where appearances are meant to be deceiving.", "zh": "在国事活动中，外表应当是遮人耳目的。", "index": 749}
{"en": "When Sarkozy, who otherwise has such finely tuned media instincts, protests that he’s no different from any other man, he comes dangerously close to confusing the office and the person of the president.", "zh": "萨尔科奇平时具有良好的媒体本能，他抱怨说他和平常人并没有什么两样。 这时候，他就危险地把总统个人和总统职务混为一谈了。", "index": 750}
{"en": "Most French people could only dream of an exotic wedding in India.", "zh": "大多数法国人只能梦见在印度举办一场充满异国情调的婚礼。", "index": 751}
{"en": "Sarkozy could make that dream come true.", "zh": "萨尔科奇则可以让这一梦想成为现实。", "index": 752}
{"en": "If he really is as head-over-heels in love with Bruni as he claims, and plans to marry her imminently, why not take advantage of his upcoming trip to India and make this a wedding to remember?", "zh": "如果他果真像他所说的那样对布吕尼爱得死去活来而且想要大操大办与她结婚，那么为何不利用即将到来的印度之行并让这一婚礼永志不忘呢？", "index": 753}
{"en": "He could meet his bride seated majestically on the caparison of an elaborately decorated elephant, and she would look ravishing swathed and bejeweled in Indian finery.", "zh": "他可以让新娘座在一头精心打扮的大象上迎接，而新娘则身著印度鲜艳服装，珠光宝气。", "index": 754}
{"en": "The “bling-bling” president, as Sarkozy has been dubbed, can wear all the gold he wants and heap yet more diamonds on his bride.", "zh": "被人称为喜欢名牌服装的总统的萨尔科奇可以穿上他所想要的所有金饰并且让新娘戴上更多的钻石。", "index": 755}
{"en": "The cameras would roll, Indians would smile, and France would be treated to a Bollywood spectacle beyond its wildest dreams.", "zh": "照相机会闪个不停，印度人会抱以微笑，而法国将会受到做梦也想不到的宝莱坞式的热闹场景。", "index": 756}
{"en": "And if it’s too late for the wedding, there’s always the reception.", "zh": "而且，如果没有赶上婚礼，还有婚宴呢。", "index": 757}
{"en": "A Born-Again CAP", "zh": "重生的共同农业政策", "index": 758}
{"en": "WAGENINGEN, NETHERLANDS – Born in 1957, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is now more than 50 years old, and the European Commission is proposing what it calls a health check for its middle-aged child.", "zh": "瓦格宁根，荷兰 — — 诞生于1957年的共同农业政策（CAP）如今已年逾五旬，欧盟委员会正提议对它这位中年后代进行所谓的体检。", "index": 759}
{"en": "But superficial repairs will not meet the European Union’s future needs. The CAP must be born again.", "zh": "不过，表面的修补碍难满足欧盟未来的需要，共同农业政策必须转世重生。", "index": 760}
{"en": "Work on its renewal is due to start now, with the completed project ready in 2013. But a much more profound re-think is needed.", "zh": "与其重生有关的工作预定即刻开始，完成的计划在2013年将可付诸实施，但我们还需对其进行一番深入得多的再思考。", "index": 761}
{"en": "The CAP’s original aim was to provide a secure source of food for the six original member states of the Union, which were importers of food and sought a degree of self-sufficiency.", "zh": "共同农业政策原本旨在为欧盟最初的六个成员国提供可靠的食物来源，当时这六国是食品进口国并试图实现一定的自给自足。", "index": 762}
{"en": "Good, healthy, and cheap food had to be accessible for all citizens. Improved agricultural productivity would benefit rural areas and give farmers a comparative share in the Union’s growing wealth.", "zh": "所有公民都应获得优质、健康而又廉价的食品；提升的农业生产率将惠及农村地区，并使农民在欧盟不断增长的财富中获得相称的一份。", "index": 763}
{"en": "Instruments to achieve those objectives were developed, and food security was achieved.", "zh": "实现这些目标所需的手段得到发展，食品安全也得以实现。", "index": 764}
{"en": "The CAP quickly came to be seen as the jewel in the crown of the European project.", "zh": "很快，共同农业政策就被视为欧洲计划中的皇冠上的宝石。", "index": 765}
{"en": "As the EU has evolved and expanded, food systems have become more complex, involving production, processing, supply-chain organization, and wholesale and retail distribution, with all of these involving new issues like health and the environment. The use of land is also receiving more serious scrutiny.", "zh": "随着欧盟的演化与扩张，食品体系也变得更加复杂，这一体系不但包含了生产、加工、供应链组织以及批发和零售配销等环节，而且每一环节又涉及诸如健康、环保等新的问题；对土地的使用也受到更为认真的监控。", "index": 766}
{"en": "A 1991 study by the Netherlands Scientific Council for Governmental Policy, entitled Ground for Choices, demonstrated that the EU’s food supply could be met with 50% less cultivated land, 80% less pesticides, and at 50% less cost.", "zh": "1991年由荷兰政府政策科学委员会进行的一次名为面临选择的土地（Ground for Choices）的研究证明了减少50%的耕地、80%的杀虫剂并只需一半的成本，欧盟的食品供应需求就能得到满足。", "index": 767}
{"en": "Pollution would be reduced by 70% as a result of fewer nitrates in the surface water, and greenhouse gases would be cut.", "zh": "同时，得益于地表水中硝酸盐含量的降低，污染将被削减七成，温室气体也会减少。", "index": 768}
{"en": "Those figures were for an EU of 15 countries, so with today’s 27 members the possibilities are even greater.", "zh": "这些数据还只是针对彼时只有15个成员的欧盟，如今欧盟已扩大为27国，因此其潜在可能变得更为巨大。", "index": 769}
{"en": "A Dutch analysis of land use has shown that by employing the best technical and ecological means on the best available land, substantial gains could be made in food production.", "zh": "一份荷兰的土地使用分析已经表明，通过在最好的可使用土地上运用最佳的技术与生态手段，食物生产可以显著增加。", "index": 770}
{"en": "So it is not surprising that the number of farmers needed has fallen substantially.", "zh": "因此，所需农民数量也已经显著减少这一点不再令人吃惊。", "index": 771}
{"en": "Viewed from the standpoint of food security and the wealth of rural areas, there is now an urgent need to revisit the CAP’s main instruments so that a new policy formula can be introduced.", "zh": "从食品安全与农村地区财富状况的角度看，目前，重访共同农业政策的主要手段以引入新的政策方案的需求颇为迫切。", "index": 772}
{"en": "Perverse subsidies must be removed and recent new ones favoring products such as bio-fuels reconsidered.", "zh": "不当的补贴必须取消，近来有利于生物燃料等产品的新补贴则需加以重新考虑。", "index": 773}
{"en": "The status quo clearly has to be changed.", "zh": "现状无疑需要改变。", "index": 774}
{"en": "Rural policy in the EU is too often reduced to income guarantees for the farming community. But that attitude is undermining change.", "zh": "欧盟的农业政策过于频繁地缩减变为向农业社群提供收入保证；但这一态度正有损于变化。", "index": 775}
{"en": "Competition must be encouraged, as more rural entrepreneurship will strengthen the farming community, with fewer farmers but better farms.", "zh": "竞争必须加以鼓励，因为更多的农村企业活动将强化农业社群，使得农民数量减少，而农场变得更好。", "index": 776}
{"en": "A simplified CAP would encourage cleaner, more productive, and efficient agriculture.", "zh": "一个简化版的共同农业政策将鼓励更为清洁、更加多产并且高效的农业。", "index": 777}
{"en": "A side benefit for the EU’s standing in the world could be that the World Trade Organization’s stalled Doha negotiations could be restarted once farmers in developing countries are assured of getting a fair deal from Europe.", "zh": "对于欧盟在世界上的地位而言，此举还有一个额外益处，那就是一旦发展中国家的农民得到保证，将获得来自欧洲的公平待遇后，世界贸易组织陷于中止的多哈谈判就能重新启动。", "index": 778}
{"en": "Moreover, the CAP’s role as a motor of political and social integration in Europe could be restored once renewed policies are in place.", "zh": "而且只要更新后的政策就位，共同农业政策在欧洲政治与社会整合过程中所扮演的发动机角色就能恢复。", "index": 779}
{"en": "But renewal of this sort cannot be left to global market forces, as the results might not necessarily benefit European agriculture and society.", "zh": "不过此类更新不能听任全球市场力量的摆布，因为其结果可能并不一定有利于欧洲农业与社会。", "index": 780}
{"en": "If the market “misbehaves,” farmers could be reduced to poverty, leading to the neglect of large areas of Europe.", "zh": "如果市场“运作失当 ” ， 农民就会陷入贫困，并导致欧洲大片地区受到忽视。", "index": 781}
{"en": "That is a real enough danger to which policymakers must give serious thought as they reform the CAP on the basis of the following five pillars.", "zh": "这是决策者们根据以下五条重要原则改革共同农业政策时必须严肃加以考虑的、足够真切的危险。", "index": 782}
{"en": "1.      The EU needs a knowledge and innovation policy that strengthens European agriculture’s competitiveness.", "zh": "1、欧盟需要一个增强欧洲农业竞争力的知识与创新政策。", "index": 783}
{"en": "Such a policy has been successful in the Netherlands, substantially contributing to the development and power of the country’s agribusiness.", "zh": "这一政策曾在荷兰取得成功，对该国农业综合企业的发展与实力贡献良多。", "index": 784}
{"en": "Ten of 21 branches of Dutch agribusiness, including horticultural seeds, ornamentals, seed potatoes, and veal, are among the top contributors to the national economy and the country’s trade balance.", "zh": "荷兰农业综合企业21个分支中的10个（包括园艺育种、观赏植物、种用马铃薯与小牛肉）位列对该国经济与贸易收支平衡贡献最大的产业之中。", "index": 785}
{"en": "In the EU as a whole, a policy directed toward research programs stimulating scientific excellence and greater coherence in the European knowledge system would greatly strengthen agriculture’s competitiveness and contribute to food security and sustainable development.", "zh": "欧盟作为整体而言，导向刺激科学卓越成就与欧洲知识体系内更高一致性的研究项目的政策将极大地增强农业竞争力并有助于食品安全和可持续发展。", "index": 786}
{"en": "2.      Europe also needs a restructuring policy for land use.", "zh": "2、欧洲也需要一个关于土地使用的重组政策。", "index": 787}
{"en": "Many structural improvement programs have been financed at the European level, but agricultural production and land use are not among them.", "zh": "在欧洲层面已有许多结构性改进项目得到资助，但农业生产与土地使用却不在其中。", "index": 788}
{"en": "The development of an Agricultural Main Structure would compliment the European Ecological Main Structure.", "zh": "农业主体结构的发展将补全欧洲主体生态结构。", "index": 789}
{"en": "Reforestation and the repair of natural ecosystems should also be part of a land use policy.", "zh": "重新造林与自然生态系统的修复也应当被纳入土地使用政策之中。", "index": 790}
{"en": "3.      A policy for European food systems would treat production, processing, distribution, logistics, and retailing in combination.", "zh": "3、关于欧洲食品体系的政策应对生产、加工、分配、物流以及零售诸环节进行联合考虑。", "index": 791}
{"en": "Consumption patterns and preferences are an integral part of such systems.", "zh": "消费模式与偏好也是这类体系不可或缺的一部分。", "index": 792}
{"en": "Preliminary studies by the European Science Foundation’s “Forward Look on European Food Systems” could prove useful in devising an EU-wide policy.", "zh": "欧洲科学基金会所做的初步研究 — — “对欧洲食品体系的展望”将为欧盟范围的政策创制提供帮助。", "index": 793}
{"en": "4.      Metropolitan agriculture in a rapidly urbanizing world can provide high-quality produce on small amounts of land.", "zh": "4、在一个高速城市化的世界中，都市型农业能凭借少量的土地供应高质量的农产品。", "index": 794}
{"en": "It offers an answer to rising demand for healthy food with minimal environmental side effects.", "zh": "这为如何满足对健康食品不断增长的需求，同时又对环境的副作���最小这一问题提供了一个答案。", "index": 795}
{"en": "5.      A new CAP should include a policy to safeguard Europe’s landscapes.", "zh": "5、新的共同农业政策应当包含一个保护欧洲地形的方案。", "index": 796}
{"en": "But a cultural heritage should not be maintained everywhere, nor should it ignore cost.", "zh": "但并非各处都应保留文化遗产，也不该忽视其成本。", "index": 797}
{"en": "And it should not be a defensive policy of the sort that tends to concentrate on poor-quality land.", "zh": "同时它还不应该成为一个趋向全力聚焦于贫瘠土地的防御性政策。", "index": 798}
{"en": "These five pillars involve drastic choices, but they will probably require less money from Europe’s taxpayers, not more.", "zh": "上述五条重要原则涉及到激烈的选择，但它们可能只需欧洲纳税人付出更少的资金，而非更多。", "index": 799}
{"en": "They could make a real contribution to cleaner, more productive, and efficient farming and land use, while addressing social needs.", "zh": "它们将对更为清洁、更加多产并且高效的农业与土地使用做出真正的贡献，并能兼顾社会的需求。", "index": 800}
{"en": "A Breakthrough Against Hunger", "zh": "突破饥饿危机", "index": 801}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Today’s world hunger crisis is unprecedentedly severe and requires urgent measures.", "zh": "纽约—当今世界饥饿危机的严重程度前所未有，已是当务之急。", "index": 802}
{"en": "Nearly one billion people are trapped in chronic hunger – perhaps 100 million more than two years ago.", "zh": "近十亿人在忍受着长期饥饿的煎熬—这样的人口很可能比两年前增加了一亿。", "index": 803}
{"en": "Spain is taking global leadership in combating hunger by inviting world leaders to Madrid in late January to move beyond words to action.", "zh": "西班牙正在对抗饥饿方面起着全球性的领导作用。 它将邀请世界各国领导人于一月底汇聚马德里，将言语付诸行动。", "index": 804}
{"en": "With Spain’s leadership and United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s partnership, several donor governments are proposing to pool their financial resources so that the world’s poorest farmers can grow more food and escape the poverty trap.", "zh": "在西班牙的领导和联合国秘书长潘基文的支持下，几个捐助国政府正协商着将他们的财政资源集中起来以便让世界上最贫困的农民能够种植更多的粮食，从而摆脱贫穷的陷阱。", "index": 805}
{"en": "The benefits of some donor help can be remarkable.", "zh": "捐助国的支援所带来的好处是不言而喻的。", "index": 806}
{"en": "Peasant farmers in Africa, Haiti, and other impoverished regions currently plant their crops without the benefit of high-yield seed varieties and fertilizers.", "zh": "非洲、海地和其他贫困地区目前都在没有高产种子和化肥的情况下种植作物。", "index": 807}
{"en": "The result is a grain yield (for example, maize) that is roughly one-third less than what could be achieved with better farm inputs.", "zh": "其结果就是粮食产量（例如玉米）比在有更好的农业投入的情况下大约要少三分之一。", "index": 808}
{"en": "African farmers produce roughly one ton of grain per hectare, compared with more than four tons per hectare in China, where farmers use fertilizers heavily.", "zh": "相较于大量施用化肥的中国农民每公顷四吨的产量，非洲农民每公顷的粮食产量只有约一吨。", "index": 809}
{"en": "African farmers know that they need fertilizer; they just can’t afford it.", "zh": "非洲农民知道他们需要化肥，只是买不起。", "index": 810}
{"en": "With donor help, they can.", "zh": "有了捐助国的帮助，他们就能用上化肥了。", "index": 811}
{"en": "Not only do these farmers then feed their families, but they also can begin to earn market income and to save for the future.", "zh": "到那时，这些农民不仅能养家糊口，还能开始赚取市场收入并为未来而储蓄。", "index": 812}
{"en": "By building up savings over a few years, the farmers eventually become creditworthy, or have enough cash to purchase vitally necessary inputs on their own.", "zh": "有了几年的积蓄，这些农民最终能够成为具有银行信用的人，或者有足够的现金自行购买必需的农业投入。", "index": 813}
{"en": "There is now widespread agreement on the need for increased donor financing for small farmers (those with two hectares or less of land, or impoverished pastoralists), which is especially urgent in Africa.", "zh": "现今的一个广泛共识是捐助融资对非洲小农户（拥有两公顷或以下土地，或者是贫穷的畜牧业者）的必要性和急迫性。", "index": 814}
{"en": "The UN Secretary General led a steering group last year that determined that African agriculture needs around $8 billion per year in donor financing – roughly four times the current total – with a heavy emphasis on improved seeds, fertilizer, irrigation systems, and extension training.", "zh": "联合国秘书长领导的一个指导小组去年得出的结论是非洲农业每年需要约八十亿的捐助融资—大约是现有规模的四倍—而重中之重是改良的种子、化肥、灌溉系统和延伸培训。", "index": 815}
{"en": "In addition to direct help for small farms, donors should provide more help for the research and development needed to identify new high-yielding seed varieties, especially to breed plants that can withstand temporary flooding, excess nitrogen, salty soils, crop pests, and other challenges to sustainable food production.", "zh": "除了对小农场的直接援助外，捐助方还应该在必需的研发方面给予更多的帮助，从而开发更多种类的新高产种子，特别是用以培育能够耐受暂时的洪涝、过量的氮、盐质土壤、害虫和其他可持续粮食生产所面临的挑战的作物。", "index": 816}
{"en": "Helping the poor with today’s technologies, while investing in future improved technologies, is the optimum division of labor.", "zh": "以当今的技术帮助穷人，同时投资于未来更好的技术是最佳的分工。", "index": 817}
{"en": "This investment pays off wonderfully, with research centers such as the International Rice Research Institute and the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre providing the high-yield seeds and innovative farming strategies that together triggered the Asian Green Revolution.", "zh": "有了如国际水稻研究所和国际玉米及小麦研究所这些提供高产种子和创新农业战略，并共同引发了亚洲“绿色革命”的研究中心，这种投资的回报极为可观。", "index": 818}
{"en": "These centers are not household names, but they deserve to be.", "zh": "这些中心并非人尽皆知，但它们的确是无名英雄。", "index": 819}
{"en": "Their scientific breakthroughs have helped to feed the world, and we’ll need more of them.", "zh": "它们的科学突破帮助我们养活了全世界的人口，这样的机构应该更多一些。", "index": 820}
{"en": "Dozens of low-income, food-deficit countries, perhaps as many as 40-50, have elaborated urgent programs for increased food production by small farms, but are currently held back by the lack of donor funding.", "zh": "数十个低收入、粮食赤字的国家（可能有四十到五十个）已经宣布了旨在增加小农场粮食产量的紧急计划，但却由于缺少捐助方的资金支持而力不从心。", "index": 821}
{"en": "These countries have appealed to the World Bank for financing, and the Bank made a valiant effort in 2008 to help through its new Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFCRP).", "zh": "这些国家向世界银行请求融资，而该行在2008年也不遗余力地通过其新的“全球粮食危机响应计划 ” ( GFCRP) 提供了帮助。", "index": 822}
{"en": "But the Bank does not yet have sufficient funds to meet these countries’ urgent needs, and has had to ration assistance to a small fraction of the flows that could be effectively and reliably used.", "zh": "但世行资金在满足这些国家的紧急需求方面也是捉襟见肘，并不得不对援助资金进行配额限制，使得其数额相对于原本所需的可靠而有效资金量而言只是杯水车薪。", "index": 823}
{"en": "Hundreds of millions of people, in the meantime, remain trapped in hunger.", "zh": "同时，近十亿人则在饥饿中挣扎。", "index": 824}
{"en": "Many individual donor countries have declared that they are now prepared to increase their financial support for smallholder agriculture, but are searching for the appropriate mechanisms to do so.", "zh": "许多捐助国都各自宣称正准备增加对小型农业的资金支持，但现在正寻求一种合适的实施机制。", "index": 825}
{"en": "The current aid structures are inadequate.", "zh": "目前的援助架构尚有欠缺。", "index": 826}
{"en": "The more than 20 bilateral and multilateral donor agencies for agriculture are highly fragmented and of insufficient scale individually and collectively.", "zh": "二十余家双边和多边的农业援助机构则高度分散，其规模不论个体还是集体都尚显不足。", "index": 827}
{"en": "Despite the dedicated efforts of many professionals, the response to the hunger crisis remains utterly inadequate.", "zh": "尽管许多专业人士付出了巨大的努力，但对饥饿危机的响应仍然远远不足。", "index": 828}
{"en": "The 2008 planting seasons came and went with much too little additional help for impoverished small farmers.", "zh": "2008年的种植季节来了又去，贫穷的小农户们在此期间所获得的额外援助仍是少之又少。", "index": 829}
{"en": "African countries search endlessly, and mostly fruitlessly, for the small amounts of funding needed for their purchases of fertilizer and improved seeds.", "zh": "非洲国家无尽地，也几乎无果地寻求着购买化肥和良种所需的小额资金。", "index": 830}
{"en": "My colleagues and I, serving on an advisory committee for the Spanish initiative, have recommended that donors pool their funds into a single international account, which we call the Financial Coordination Mechanism (FCM).", "zh": "作为西班牙政府此项计划的顾问委员会成员，我和我的同事们建议捐助方将他们的资金集中到同一个被我们称为“融资协调机制(FCM ) ” 的国际账户。", "index": 831}
{"en": "These pooled funds would enable farmers in poor countries to obtain the fertilizer, improved seed varieties, and small-scale irrigation equipment that they urgently need.", "zh": "这些集中起来的资金能让贫穷国家的农民获得急需的化肥、良种和小型灌溉设备。", "index": 832}
{"en": "Poor countries would receive prompt and predictable financing for agricultural inputs from a single account, rather than from dozens of distinct and fragmented donors.", "zh": "穷国能从一个统一账户而不是数十个各自为政且高度分散的捐助方获得即时和可预见的农业投入融资。", "index": 833}
{"en": "By pooling financial resources into a single-donor FCM, aid programs’ administrative costs could be kept low, the availability of aid flows could be assured, and poor countries would not have to negotiate 25 times in order to receive help.", "zh": "通过将财政资源集中到一个统一的捐助方FCM，可以保持较低的援助计划行政成本，援助资金流的持续性也能得到保证，而穷国也不必为了获得援助而进行二十五次谈判。", "index": 834}
{"en": "The time for business as usual is over.", "zh": "按部就班的时代一去不返。", "index": 835}
{"en": "The donors promised to double aid to Africa by 2010, but are still far off track.", "zh": "捐助方承诺到2010年将援助资金增加一倍，但现在仍是任重道远。", "index": 836}
{"en": "Indeed, during the past 20 years, they actually cut aid for agriculture programs, and only now are reversing course.", "zh": "的确，在过去的二十年里，他们实际上削减了农业计划的援助资金，直到现在才开始回到正轨。", "index": 837}
{"en": "Meanwhile, a billion people go hungry each day.", "zh": "与此同时，十亿人却每天生活在饥饿的阴影之中。", "index": 838}
{"en": "We need a breakthrough that is demonstrable, public, clear, and convincing, that can mobilize the public’s hearts and minds, and that can demonstrate success.", "zh": "我需要一种突破，它具有示范效应，公开、明晰并具有说服力；它能激发公众的身心投入，并彰显成功。", "index": 839}
{"en": "History can be made in Madrid at the end of January, when the world’s richest and poorest countries converge to seek solutions to the global hunger crisis.", "zh": "当世界上最富裕和最贫穷的国家在一月底齐心协力寻求全球饥饿危机的解决之道时，我们就能在马德里创造历史。", "index": 840}
{"en": "The lives of the billion poorest people depend on it.", "zh": "十亿最贫穷人口的生命皆系于此。", "index": 841}
{"en": "A Breakthrough Opportunity for Global Health", "zh": "全球卫生状况的突破性机会", "index": 842}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Every year, millions of people die from preventable and treatable diseases, especially in poor countries.", "zh": "纽约—每年都有数百万人因可防可治的疾病而身亡，特别是在穷国。", "index": 843}
{"en": "In many cases, lifesaving medicines can be cheaply mass-produced, but are sold at prices that block access to those who need them.", "zh": "在很多情形中，救命药可以以低廉的成本大量生产，但售价却让需要者望而却步。", "index": 844}
{"en": "And many die simply because there are no cures or vaccines, because so little of the world’s valuable research talent and limited resources is devoted to addressing the diseases of the poor.", "zh": "更有许多人的死仅仅是因为缺少治疗或疫苗，而造成这种情况的原因是用于为穷人治病的世界宝贵研究人才和有限资源太少。", "index": 845}
{"en": "This state of affairs represents a failure of economics and law that urgently needs to be corrected.", "zh": "如此状况反映了经济学和法律方面急需得到修正的失灵。", "index": 846}
{"en": "The good news is that there are now opportunities for change, most promisingly through an international effort headed by the World Health Organization that would begin to fix the broken intellectual-property regime that is holding back the development and availability of cheap drugs.", "zh": "好消息是现在改变的机会已现，主要是通过一项由世界卫生组织牵头的国际计划，该计划将开始修正造成廉价药品开发和难以获得问题的知识产权制度漏洞。", "index": 847}
{"en": "Two main problems limit the availability of medicines today.", "zh": "如今，药品之所以难以获得，主要是拜两大问题所赐。", "index": 848}
{"en": "One is that they are very costly; or, more accurately, the price charged for them is very high, though the cost of producing them is but a fraction of that amount.", "zh": "其中之一是药品成本太高；或者，更正确地说，是药品要价太高，而生产成本只是要价的一小部分。", "index": 849}
{"en": "Second, drug development is geared toward maximizing profit, not social benefit, which skews efforts directed at the creation of medicines that are essential to human welfare.", "zh": "第二个问题是药品开发的着眼点是利润最大化，而不是社会效益最大化，这使得药品开发倾向于创造对人类福利至关重要的品种。", "index": 850}
{"en": "Because the poor have so little money to spend, drug companies, under current arrangements, have little incentive to do research on the diseases that afflict them.", "zh": "而穷人根本没有多少钱可花，因此，在现有安排下，制药公司根本没什么激励研究折磨穷人的疾病。", "index": 851}
{"en": "It doesn’t have to be this way.", "zh": "事情本不必如此。", "index": 852}
{"en": "Drug companies argue that high prices are necessary to fund research and development.", "zh": "制药公司指出，要价高是必要的，这是为了给研发提供资金。", "index": 853}
{"en": "But, in the United States, it is actually the government that finances most health-related research and development – directly, through public support (National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation), and indirectly, through public purchases of medicine, both in the Medicare and Medicaid programs.", "zh": "但是，在美国，大部分卫生相关研发活动的实际出资者是政府 — — 或是通过公共支持（美国国家卫生研究院、国家科学基金会等）直接提供资金，或是通过药品公共采购（如医疗保险和医疗补助计划）间接提供资金。", "index": 854}
{"en": "Even the part that is not government-financed is not a conventional market; most individuals’ purchases of prescription medicines are covered by insurance.", "zh": "不能获得政府融资的部分也不是传统市场；许多个人的处方药支出都能获得保险赔付。", "index": 855}
{"en": "Government finances health-care research because improved medicines are a public good.", "zh": "政府之所以为卫生研究提供融资，是因为改善药品是一种公共品。", "index": 856}
{"en": "The resulting knowledge benefits everyone by stopping epidemics and limiting the economic and human toll of widespread illness.", "zh": "由此带来的知识进步能防止传染病、减轻常见病的经济和人身伤害，从而让每个人都受益。", "index": 857}
{"en": "Efficiency requires sharing research as widely as possible as soon as it is available.", "zh": "要获得高效，就必须在获得知识进步后尽可能快地共享之。", "index": 858}
{"en": "Thomas Jefferson compared knowledge to candles: when one is used to light another, it does not diminish the light of the first.", "zh": "托马斯·杰斐逊曾将知识比作蜡烛：用一根蜡烛点燃另一根蜡烛，并不会减弱前一根蜡烛的光辉。", "index": 859}
{"en": "On the contrary, everything becomes brighter.", "zh": "相反，这样能使所有东西都变得更亮。", "index": 860}
{"en": "Yet, in America and most of the world, drug prices are still exorbitant and the spread of knowledge is tightly limited.", "zh": "但是，在美国以及世界大部分地区，药品价格依然高得离谱，知识的传播则受到了严格的制约。", "index": 861}
{"en": "That is because we have created a patent system that gives innovators a temporary monopoly over what they create, which encourages them to hoard their knowledge, lest they help a competitor.", "zh": "这是因为我们所创造的专利制度给了创新者对其所创之物的暂时垄断权，这促使创新者对知识敝帚自珍，唯恐助了竞争者一臂之力。", "index": 862}
{"en": "While this system does provide incentives for certain kinds of research by making innovation profitable, it allows drug companies to drive up prices, and the incentives do not necessarily correspond to social returns.", "zh": "这一制度使得创新有利可图，从而确实为某些类型的研究提供了激励；但制药公司也因此得以坐地起价，它们获得的激励与社会回报不一定相容。", "index": 863}
{"en": "In the health-care sector, it may be more profitable to devote research to a “me-too” drug than to the development of a treatment that really makes a difference.", "zh": "在卫生领域，致力于研究“仿造”药可能比开发一种另辟蹊径的疗法更加有利可图。", "index": 864}
{"en": "The patent system may even have adverse effects on innovation, because, while the most important input into any research is prior ideas, the patent system encourages secrecy.", "zh": "专利制度甚至可能对创新起到反作用，因为研究的最重要输入变量是领先的思想，而专利制度却在鼓励彼此保密。", "index": 865}
{"en": "A solution to both high prices and misdirected research is to replace the current model with a government-supported prize fund.", "zh": "要价高企和研究��向偏差问题的解决之道是用政府奖励基金代替现有模式。", "index": 866}
{"en": "With a prize system, innovators are rewarded for new knowledge, but they do not retain a monopoly on its use.", "zh": "在奖励制度下，创新者将因新知识而受到奖赏，但不再获得新知识使用的垄断权。", "index": 867}
{"en": "That way, the power of competitive markets can ensure that, once a drug is developed, it is made available at the lowest possible price – not at an inflated monopoly price.", "zh": "这样一来，竞争性市场的力量将能保证只要药品被开发出来，就能以尽可能低的价格（而不是大大膨胀的垄断价）为患者所获。", "index": 868}
{"en": "Fortunately, some US lawmakers are taking a strong interest in this approach.", "zh": "幸运的是，一些美国立法者已对这一方法产生了浓厚兴趣。", "index": 869}
{"en": "The Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act, a congressional bill introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders, is just such an initiative.", "zh": "参议员桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）提出、并获得国会通过的艾滋病奖励基金法（Prize Fund for HIV/AIDS Act）只是一个开始。", "index": 870}
{"en": "His bill also contains an important provision aimed at encouraging open-source research, which would move the current research model away from secrecy toward sharing.", "zh": "桑德斯的法案包括了一个旨在鼓励开源研究的重要部分，将促使现有研究模式从保密转向共享。", "index": 871}
{"en": "But, globally, our innovation system needs much bigger changes.", "zh": "但是，从全球角度看，我们的创新制度还需要做出大得多的变化。", "index": 872}
{"en": "The WHO’s efforts to encourage broad reforms at the international level are crucial.", "zh": "世界卫生组织旨在促进国际层面的广泛改革的努力非常关键。", "index": 873}
{"en": "This spring, the WHO released a report that recommends solutions similar to those proposed in the US Senate bill, but on a global level.", "zh": "今年春天，世界卫生组织公布了一份报告，其中提出了一项类似于桑德斯法案的解决之道 — — 只不过世卫组织的方案是全球水平的。", "index": 874}
{"en": "Importantly, the report, “Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries,” recommends a comprehensive approach, including mandatory funding contributions from governments for research on developing countries’ health needs; international coordination of health-care priorities and implementation; and a global observatory that would monitor where needs are greatest.", "zh": "有一点很重要，这份题为《用研发满足发展中国家的卫生需要 》 （ “Research and Development to Meet Health Needs in Developing Countries）给出了一个完整的方法，包括来自政府的指令性发展中国家卫生研究资金分配；优先卫生项目和实施的国际合作；以及监测最紧迫需求的全球观察组。", "index": 875}
{"en": "In late May, the international community will have a chance to begin implementing these ideas at the WHO World Health Assembly – a moment of hope for public health around the world.", "zh": "5月底，国际社会将由机会在世界卫生组织大会上开始实施这些想法，这将是世界公共卫生的希望时刻。", "index": 876}
{"en": "Reforming our innovation system is not just a matter of economics.", "zh": "改革创新制度并不仅仅是一个经济问题。", "index": 877}
{"en": "It is, in many cases, a matter of life and death.", "zh": "在很多情况下，它是个事关生死的大问题。", "index": 878}
{"en": "It is therefore essential to de-link R&D incentives from drug prices, and to promote greater sharing of scientific knowledge.", "zh": "因此，将研发激励与药品价格脱钩、鼓励更多的科学知识分享至关重要。", "index": 879}
{"en": "For America, the Sanders bill marks important progress.", "zh": "对美国来说，桑德斯法案是一次重大进步。", "index": 880}
{"en": "For the world, the WHO’s recommendations represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to remedy a long-standing and egregious inequity in health care, and, more broadly, to set a model for governance of global public goods befitting an era of globalization.", "zh": "对全世界来说，世卫组织的建议可谓修正长期存在的卫生不平等性恶疾的千载难逢的良机（从更广的角度讲，也是设立与全球化时代相适应的全球公共品治理新模式的良机 ） 。", "index": 881}
{"en": "We cannot afford to let this opportunity pass us by.", "zh": "我们决不能坐视这个机会从手中白白溜走。", "index": 882}
{"en": "India’s Change of Guard", "zh": "印度换防", "index": 883}
{"en": "SINGAPORE – In August, Raghuram Rajan was appointed Governor of the Reserve Bank of India.", "zh": "新加坡—8月，拉古兰·拉詹（Raghuram Rajan）被任命为印度储备银行行长。", "index": 884}
{"en": "On one level, this was a routine announcement that many had anticipated – after all, Rajan is arguably the best-known Indian economist of his generation.", "zh": "从某种程度上讲，这是很多人意料之中的宣布 — — 毕竟，拉詹被认为是这一代最著名的印度经济学家。", "index": 885}
{"en": "On another level, however, his appointment can be seen as part of a broader generational shift.", "zh": "但是，从另一个层面讲，他的任命可以视为更广泛的代际变化的一部分。", "index": 886}
{"en": "Rajan, just 50, will be the first RBI governor born after India became a republic in 1950.", "zh": "年仅50岁的拉詹将是第一位出生于1950年印度成为共和国之后的央行行长。", "index": 887}
{"en": "Similar changes are taking place in all walks of Indian life, including politics, the arts, sports, and social development.", "zh": "印度社会各界都在发生类似的变化，包括政治、艺术、体育和社会发展等领域。", "index": 888}
{"en": "And India will be better for it.", "zh": "印度也将因此受益。", "index": 889}
{"en": "Although the country is one of the youngest in the world, with an average age of just 26 years, until recently aging stalwarts incongruously dominated most fields, from politics to the arts and even business and sports.", "zh": "尽管印度是世界上最年轻的国家之一，国民平均年龄只有26岁，但直到最近，在各行各业占据主导地位的无不是一些高龄老顽固，从政治到艺术甚至商业和体育诸领域都是如此。", "index": 890}
{"en": "But now younger entrants are rising everywhere, bringing with them energy and new ideas.", "zh": "但年轻后生在各个领域全面崛起，带来了新能量和新思维。", "index": 891}
{"en": "In politics, as the country prepares for next year’s general election, the leading contenders to replace 81-year-old Prime Minister Manmohan Singh are the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Narendra Modi, 62, and Rahul Gandhi, who is just 43.", "zh": "在政治界，明年大选即将到来之际，取代81岁的现任总理辛格的最有力候选人是来自印度人民党的62岁的莫迪（Narendra Modi）和年仅43岁的甘地（Rahul Gandhi ） 。", "index": 892}
{"en": "Either man would be the first prime minister who was not born in the British Raj.", "zh": "不管谁当选，都将是第一位告别英属印度时代后出生的总理。", "index": 893}
{"en": "The arts were one of the first areas to witness this generational change.", "zh": "艺术界是第一个发生这一代际变化的领域之一。", "index": 894}
{"en": "For a long time, Indian literature, especially in English, was dominated by a clique who wrote mainly for a niche audience and literary recognition.", "zh": "长期以来，在印度文学界，特别是英语文学界，占主导地位的一直是主要为一小撮读者和文学界的认可而写作的作家。", "index": 895}
{"en": "Then, a few years ago, a group of young writers – such as Chetan Bhagat and Amish Tripathi, both former bankers – changed the rules of the game by writing for the mass market.", "zh": "但是，几年前，一群青年作家 — — 如Chetan Bhagat和Amish Tripathi，两人此前都是银行家 — — 通过为大众写作改变了游戏规则。", "index": 896}
{"en": "Rather than write for literary critics, they began to use a simpler language, including Indian turns of phrase.", "zh": "他们不再为文学批评而写作，而是开始用更简单的语言，包括印度土话。", "index": 897}
{"en": "They also chose new themes: Tripathi dipped into ancient mythology to write a trilogy about the god Shiva, while Bhagat began to write about the lives of India’s young, upwardly mobile middle class.", "zh": "他们还选择了新的写作主题：Tripathi挖掘古神话题材，写出了关于湿婆神的三部曲；Bhagat开始写印度年青一代、向上奋斗的中产阶级的生活。", "index": 898}
{"en": "Predictably, the purists pounced and the critics ridiculed.", "zh": "不难预测，这引起了纯粹主义者的强烈反弹和批评家的嘲讽。", "index": 899}
{"en": "But people have bought their books in the millions, and film deals have followed.", "zh": "但人民买他们的账，他们的书销量以百万计，并被改编成了电影。", "index": 900}
{"en": "As a result, the market for books has dramatically expanded and publishers have been forced to change their entire business strategies.", "zh": "结果，图书市场出现了井喷，出版商被迫改变整个商业战略。", "index": 901}
{"en": "Something similar has happened in the music industry. Previously dominated by a small cabal of singers and music directors, the market has been transformed by TV talent contests, similar to American Idol, which provide a national showcase for the wealth of India’s talent.", "zh": "音乐产业也是如此，此前被一小撮歌手和音乐指导主宰的市场被电视选秀节目所改变，这些类似《美国偶像》的节目为年轻音乐天才提供了全国性的舞台。", "index": 902}
{"en": "The shows have made participants, some drawn from remote towns, into overnight stars, and many of them have gone on to sign lucrative careers.", "zh": "选秀节目为参与者 — — 其中不少来自偏远城镇 — — 提供了一夜成名的机会，许多人因此获得了令人羡慕的职业机会。", "index": 903}
{"en": "Thanks partly to this parade of new talent, the Indian music industry is experiencing a period of extraordinary innovation and expansion.", "zh": "部分归因于对这种形式的新人才检阅，印度音乐产业步入了超乎寻常的创新和扩张期。", "index": 904}
{"en": "The output of the US and European music industries sounds stale in comparison, owing to a dearth of innovation over the last two decades.", "zh": "相比之下，美国欧洲音乐产业的产出立刻显得相形见绌，这是因为后两者在过去二十年里鲜有创新。", "index": 905}
{"en": "Generational change has even come to India’s most popular sport – cricket.", "zh": "代际变化甚至出现在印度最受欢迎的体育项目 — — 板球上。", "index": 906}
{"en": "Such was the adulation once heaped upon its aging stars that many of them remained on the national team long past their peak.", "zh": "曾几何时，这项运动的所有光荣都集中在高龄球星上，以至于他们中很多人早已过了巅峰期但仍占据着国家队名额。", "index": 907}
{"en": "But a mere two years after winning the World Cup in 2011, several members of that victorious team have been replaced – a decision that until recently would have seemed unthinkable.", "zh": "但在2011年夺得世界杯仅仅两年后，这支胜利之师中的几名队员就已经换了人 — — 在不久前，这还是令人不可思议的现象。", "index": 908}
{"en": "India’s social sector has also been transformed.", "zh": "印度社会也在发生变化。", "index": 909}
{"en": "Development policy used to be dominated by career activists wedded to socialist-era thinking.", "zh": "发展政策曾经被浸淫社会主义时期思想的职业活动家主导。", "index": 910}
{"en": "But the arrival of new faces from the world of business, such as Ashish Dhawan, Jayant Sinha, and Ramesh and Swati Ramanathan, has meant that development issues are at last being assessed according to the problem-solving approach of social entrepreneurs, rather than through the ideological lens of activists.", "zh": "但来自商界的新面孔 — — 比如Ashish Dhawan、Jayant Sinha和Ramesh和Swati Ramanathan — — 意味着发展问题至少会由社会创业家的问题解决思路评估，而不是通过活跃分子的意识形态来决定。", "index": 911}
{"en": "Ironically, it is the world of business that remains slow to change.", "zh": "讽刺的是，变化缓慢的正是商界。", "index": 912}
{"en": "The growth of the IT sector in the 1990’s seemed to promise that change would be rapid and far-reaching, but the old business families still dominate.", "zh": "1990年代IT部门的增长似乎预示着变化会是快速且影响深远的，但商业就家族依然拥有主宰地位。", "index": 913}
{"en": "There is hope, though.", "zh": "但希望仍在。", "index": 914}
{"en": "Entrepreneurs like Manish Sabharwal of Teamlease, and Binny and Sachin Bansal of Flipkart, an online retailer, are fundamentally changing the way India does business.", "zh": "像Teamlease公司的Manish Sabharwal和在线零售商Flipkart公司的Binny和Sachin Bansal这样的创业家在从根本改变印度的商业模式。", "index": 915}
{"en": "Similarly, Indian academia may be moribund, but new public intellectuals like Pratap Bhanu Mehta have emerged from outside the mainstream.", "zh": "类似地，印度学界或许也处于停滞不前的状态，但新Pratap Bhanu Mehta等公共知识分子正在崛起于主流之外。", "index": 916}
{"en": "Yes, India’s economy has slowed sharply, the rupee has plunged, and scandals and protests dominate the headlines.", "zh": "是的，印度经济出现了急剧放缓，卢比出现了大幅贬值，新闻标题充斥着丑闻和示威游行。", "index": 917}
{"en": "But, behind the gloom, a new generation is taking over, bringing with it fresh ideas and visions for India.", "zh": "但是，在乌云背后，新一代正在接棒，给印度带来新的思想和前途。", "index": 918}
{"en": "Absent-Minded Killers", "zh": "心不在焉的杀戮者", "index": 919}
{"en": "As a species, human beings have a major self-control problem.", "zh": "作为一个物种，人类存在很大的自我控制问题。", "index": 920}
{"en": "We humans are now so aggressively fishing, hunting, logging, and growing crops in all parts of the world that we are literally chasing other species off the planet.", "zh": "我们人类现在全世界所有的地方如此大肆捕鱼、打猎、采伐和种植作物，乃至我们实际上在把其他物种从地球上驱赶出去。", "index": 921}
{"en": "Our intense desire to take all that we can from nature leaves precious little for other forms of life.", "zh": "我们极度想要从大自然中索取所有我们可以索取的东西，留给其他生物种类的东西少之又少。", "index": 922}
{"en": "In 1992, when the world’s governments first promised to address man-made global warming, they also vowed to head off the human-induced extinction of other species.", "zh": "在1992年世界各国政府第一次保证解决人为全球气候变暖的时候，他们同时还誓言阻止由人类引发的其他物种的灭绝。", "index": 923}
{"en": "The Convention on Biological Diversity, agreed at the Rio Earth Summit, established that “biological diversity is a common concern of humanity.”", "zh": "在里约热内卢通过的生物多样性公约确认“生物多样性是人类的共同关切问题。", "index": 924}
{"en": "The signatories agreed to conserve biological diversity, by saving species and their habitats, and to use biological resources (e.g., forests) in a sustainable manner.", "zh": "”签署国们同意通过挽救物种及其栖息地来保全生物多样性，并且以可持续的方式使用生物资源(例如森林 ) 。", "index": 925}
{"en": "In 2002, the treaty’s signatories went further, committing to “a significant reduction in the current rate of biodiversity loss” by 2010.", "zh": "2002年，该公约的签署国们更进一步，承诺在2010年以前“大幅度削减目前的生物多样性损失 ” 。", "index": 926}
{"en": "Unfortunately, like so many other international agreements, the Convention on Biological Diversity remains essentially unknown, un-championed, and unfulfilled.", "zh": "不幸的是，就像其他如此众多的国际公约一样，生物多样性公约基本上不为人所知，没有得到宣传促进，也没有得到落实。", "index": 927}
{"en": "That neglect is a human tragedy.", "zh": "这一疏忽是人类的悲剧。", "index": 928}
{"en": "For a very low cash outlay – and perhaps none at all on balance – we could conserve nature and thus protect the basis of our own lives and livelihoods.", "zh": "只需要很少的现金投入，甚至在根本上不需要花钱，我们就本能够保全自然，并且进而保护人类自身生命和生计的基础。", "index": 929}
{"en": "We kill other species not because we must, but because we are too negligent to do otherwise.", "zh": "我们并非是出于必须才杀戮其他物种，而是我们过于疏忽，乃至不改弦更张。", "index": 930}
{"en": "Consider a couple of notorious examples.", "zh": "让我们来看一看几个臭名昭著的例子。", "index": 931}
{"en": "Some rich countries, such as Spain, Portugal, Australia, and New Zealand, have fishing fleets that engage in so-called “bottom trawling.”", "zh": "像西班牙、葡萄牙、澳大利亚以及新西兰等富国拥有从事所谓“水底拖网”的捕鱼船队。", "index": 932}
{"en": "Bottom trawlers drag heavy nets over the ocean bottom, destroying magnificent, unexplored, and endangered marine species in the process.", "zh": "水底拖网在海洋底部拖走很重的鱼网，从而在这一过程中摧毁大量没有探明并且受到威胁的海洋物种。", "index": 933}
{"en": "Complex and unique ecologies, most notably underground volcanoes known as seamounts, are ripped to shreds, because bottom trawling is the “low cost” way to catch a few deep sea fish species.", "zh": "因为水底拖网是捕捞某些深海鱼种的“低成本”办法，因此某些复杂而又独特的生态、最为主要的是被称为海底山的地下火山被切断。", "index": 934}
{"en": "One of these species, orange roughy, has been caught commercially for only around a quarter-century, but already is being fished to the point of collapse.", "zh": "其中的一个物种叫做橙连鳍鲑，被用于商业捕捞不过大约25年的时间，但是已经被捕捞得处于崩溃的边缘。", "index": 935}
{"en": "Likewise, in many parts of the world, tropical rainforest is being cleared for pasture land and food crops.", "zh": "同样在世界许多地方，热带雨林遭到砍伐来开辟牧场和粮食作物。", "index": 936}
{"en": "The result is massive loss of habitat and destruction of species, yielding a tiny economic benefit at a huge social cost.", "zh": "结果就是栖息地的大量损失和物种的毁灭，所产生的微小的经济利益是以巨大的社会成本为代价的。", "index": 937}
{"en": "After cutting down a swath of rainforest, soils are often quickly leached of their nutrients so that they cannot sustain crops or nutritious grasses for livestock.", "zh": "在一片雨林被砍伐后，土壤通常马上就丧失了养分， 无法供养作物或者让家畜食用有营养的草地。", "index": 938}
{"en": "As a result, the new pasture land or farmland is soon abandoned, with no prospect for regeneration of the original forest and its unique ecosystems.", "zh": "结果，新的牧场或农田马上被放弃，没有机会再退耕还林，恢复其独特的生态系统。", "index": 939}
{"en": "Because these activities’ costs are so high and their benefits so low, stopping them would be easy.", "zh": "由于这些活动的代价高昂、收益低下，停止这些活动是容易的。", "index": 940}
{"en": "Bottom trawling should simply be outlawed; it would be simple and inexpensive to compensate the fishing industry during a transition to other activities.", "zh": "水底拖网应当干脆被取缔；在捕鱼产业向其他活动转型期间予以补偿是容易做到而且也是费用不大的。", "index": 941}
{"en": "Forest clearing, on the other hand, is probably best stopped by economic incentives, perhaps combined with regulatory limits.", "zh": "另一方面，砍伐森林最好通过经济激励的方式辅之以管治限制予以制止。", "index": 942}
{"en": "Simply restricting the practice of land clearing probably would not work, since farm families and communities would face a strong temptation to evade legal limits.", "zh": "简单地限制开发土地的做法可能无法奏效，因为农业家庭和社区将会面临极大的躲避法律限制的诱惑。", "index": 943}
{"en": "On the other hand, financial incentives would probably succeed, because cutting down forest to create pastureland is not profitable enough to induce farmers to forego payments for protecting the land.", "zh": "在另一方面，财政刺激可能会成功，因为砍伐森林来创造牧场土地并不有利可图，从而使得农民为了保护土地而放弃付款。", "index": 944}
{"en": "Many rainforest countries have united in recent years to suggest the establishment of a rainforest conservation fund by the rich countries, to pay impoverished small farmers a small amount of money to preserve the forest.", "zh": "许多雨林国家在最近几年中联合起来提议富有国家建立雨林储存基金，用来向贫困的小农场主支付少量金额来保护森林。", "index": 945}
{"en": "A well-designed fund would slow or stop deforestation, preserve biodiversity, and reduce emissions of carbon dioxide the burning of cleared forests.", "zh": "一个设计合理的基金将会放缓或者停止森林采伐，保护生物多样性，并且减少燃烧砍伐后的森林所造成的二氧化碳排放。", "index": 946}
{"en": "At the same time, small farmers would receive a steady flow of income, which they could use for micro-investments to improve their household’s wealth, education, and health.", "zh": "与此同时，小农场主将会得到稳定的收入，他们可以用这笔钱作小额投资用以改善家庭的财富、教育和健康。", "index": 947}
{"en": "Aside from banning bottom trawling and establishing a global fund for avoided deforestation, we should designate a global network of protected marine areas, in which fishing, boating, polluting, dredging, drilling, and other damaging activities would be prohibited.", "zh": "除了取缔水底拖网并且建立为避免森林砍伐的全球性基金外，我们应当指定一个全球性的海洋保护区域网络，在这些区域中禁止捕鱼、划船、污染、挖泥、钻探以及其他有害的活动。", "index": 948}
{"en": "Such areas not only permit the regeneration of species, but also provide ecological benefits that spill over to neighboring unprotected areas.", "zh": "这些区域不仅可以重新恢复物种，而且还可以提供生态效益向邻近的未保护区域扩散。", "index": 949}
{"en": "We also need a regular scientific process to present the world with the evidence on species abundance and extinction, just as we now have such a process for climate change.", "zh": "我们还需要定期的科学进程来向世界展示物种繁荣和灭绝的证据，正如有关气候变化的进程一样。", "index": 950}
{"en": "Politicians don’t listen very well to individual scientists, but they are forced to listen when hundreds of scientists speak with a united voice.", "zh": "政客们并不十分听取个别科学家的意见，但是当几百个科学家异口同声的时候他们就不得不���取了。", "index": 951}
{"en": "Finally, the world should negotiate a new framework no later than 2010 to slow human-induced climate change.", "zh": "最后，各国应该在不迟于2010年谈判一项新的框架来减缓人为引起的气候变化。", "index": 952}
{"en": "There can be little doubt that climate change poses one of the greatest risks to species’ viability.", "zh": "毫无疑问，气候变化是物种生存最大的威胁之一。", "index": 953}
{"en": "As the planet warms, and rain and storm patterns change dramatically, many species will find themselves in climate zones that no longer support their survival.", "zh": "当地球变暖、 降雨和风暴模式大幅度改变之际，许多物种都会处于不再支持其存活的气候区域内。", "index": 954}
{"en": "Some can migrate, but others (such as polar bears) are likely to be driven to extinction unless we take decisive action to head off climate change.", "zh": "某些物种可以迁徙，但是，除非我们采取决定性的行动来阻止气候变化，其他的物种(例如北极熊)就有可能遭到灭绝。", "index": 955}
{"en": "These measures are achievable by 2010.", "zh": "在2010年以前实现这些目标是可能的。", "index": 956}
{"en": "They are affordable, and in each case would ultimately deliver large net benefits.", "zh": "它们在经济上是可以承担的，而且在各个情况下都最终会带来巨大的净效益。", "index": 957}
{"en": "Most importantly, they would allow us to follow through on a global promise.", "zh": "最为重要的是，这将会让我们实现全球性的许诺。", "index": 958}
{"en": "It is too painful to believe that humanity would destroy millions of other species – and jeopardize our own future – in a fit of absent-mindedness.", "zh": "人类在心不在焉之际会摧毁数以白万计的其他物种并威胁到我们自己的未来，要相信这一点是过于痛苦的。", "index": 959}
{"en": "Making Do With More", "zh": "多劳应多得", "index": 960}
{"en": "BERKELEY – In the United States, just three out of ten workers are needed to produce and deliver the goods we consume.", "zh": "伯克利—在美国，生产和递送我们所消费的商品只需要十分之三的工人。", "index": 961}
{"en": "Everything we extract, grow, design, build, make, engineer, and transport – down to brewing a cup of coffee in a restaurant kitchen and carrying it to a customer's table – is done by roughly 30% of the country's workforce.", "zh": "我们提炼、种植、设计、建造、制作、打磨和运送的所有东西 — — 一直到从饭店厨房泡一杯咖啡并送给餐桌前的顾客 — — 是由大约30%的美国劳动力做的。", "index": 962}
{"en": "The rest of us spend our time planning what to make, deciding where to install the things we have made, performing personal services, talking to each other, and keeping track of what is being done, so that we can figure out what needs to be done next.", "zh": "我们其他人把时间花在规划制造什么、决定把我们造出来的东西摆在哪里、履行个人服务、彼此谈话、追踪正在制造什么上，以便我们能够发现我们下一步需要做什么。", "index": 963}
{"en": "And yet, despite our obvious ability to produce much more than we need, we do not seem to be blessed with an embarrassment of riches.", "zh": "而尽管我们显然拥有制造比我们需要的多得多的东西的能力，但我们似乎并不会富得发慌。", "index": 964}
{"en": "One of the great paradoxes of our time is that workers and middle-class households continue to struggle in a time of unparalleled plenty.", "zh": "现时代的一大悖论正是工人和中产阶级家庭在前无古人的丰裕时代仍然要为生活奔波。", "index": 965}
{"en": "We in the developed countries have more than enough to cover our basic needs.", "zh": "我们发达国家的人要想满足基本需要易如反掌。", "index": 966}
{"en": "We have enough organic carbon-hydrogen bonds to break to provide us with calories; enough vitamins and other nutrients to keep us healthy; enough shelter to keep us dry; enough clothing to keep us warm; enough capital to keep us, at least potentially, productive; and enough entertainment to keep us from being bored.", "zh": "我们有的是有机碳氢键，打破它们就能 给我们带来卡路里；我们有的是维生素和其他营养物质帮助我们保持健康；我们有的是居所让我们保持干燥；我们有的是衣服让我们保持温暖；我们有的是资本让我们（至少潜在地）拥有生产力；我们有的是娱乐项目让我们不至于无聊。", "index": 967}
{"en": "And we produce all of it for an average of less than two hours a day of work outside the home.", "zh": "我们生产所有这些，只需要平均每天花不到两小时走出家门去工作。", "index": 968}
{"en": "John Maynard Keynes was not off by much when he famously predicted in 1930 that the human race's “economic problem, the struggle for subsistence,\" was likely to be “solved, or be at least within sight of solution, within a hundred years.\"", "zh": "1930年，当凯恩斯的著名预言预测人类的“经济问题，即生存斗争”有可能“在一百年内得到解决，或至少看到解决办法。", "index": 969}
{"en": "It will take another generation, perhaps, before robots have completely taken over manufacturing, kitchen work, and construction; and the developing world looks to be 50 years behind. But Keynes would have been spot on had he targeted his essay at his readers' great-great-great-great grandchildren.", "zh": "”", "index": 970}
{"en": "And yet there are few signs that working- and middle-class Americans are living any better than they did 35 years ago.", "zh": "然而没有什么迹象表明美国工人和中产阶级比35年前生活得更好。", "index": 971}
{"en": "Even stranger, productivity growth does not seem to be soaring, as one would expect; in fact, it seems to be decelerating, according to research by John Fernald and Bing Wang, economists in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.", "zh": "更奇怪的是，生产率增长似乎没有如你预期的那样大幅加速；事实上，根据旧金山联邦储备银行经济研究部的约翰·费纳尔多（John Fernald）和王兵（音）的研究，生产率增长出现了减速。", "index": 972}
{"en": "Growth prospects are even worse, as innovation hits gale-force headwinds.", "zh": "增长前景甚至更加糟糕，因为创新活动撞上了南墙。", "index": 973}
{"en": "One way to reconcile the changes in the job market with our lived experience and statistics like these is to note that much of what we are producing is very different from what we have made in the past.", "zh": "一个协调就业市场变化与我们的生活经验和这些统计数字的办法是注意到我们生产的许多东西与我们过去所制造的东西区别很大。", "index": 974}
{"en": "For most of human experience, the bulk of what we produced could not be easily shared or used without permission.", "zh": "在人类历史的大部分时间里，我们生产出来的东西无法轻易地在未经允许的情况下共享或使用。", "index": 975}
{"en": "The goods we made were what economists call “rival\" and “excludible\" commodities.", "zh": "我们以前制造的东西是经济学家所谓的“竞争性”或“排他性”商品。", "index": 976}
{"en": "Being “rival\" means that two people cannot use the same product at the same time.", "zh": "“竞争性”是指两个人无法在同时使用同一个产品。", "index": 977}
{"en": "Being “excludible\" means that the owner of a product can easily prevent others from using it.", "zh": "“排他性”是指产品的所有者可以轻易地阻止其他人使用这个产品。", "index": 978}
{"en": "These two traits put a great deal of bargaining power in the hands of those who control production and distribution, making them ideal for a market economy based on private property.", "zh": "这两个特征让控制生产和分配的人拥有了巨大的议价权，成为基于私人产权的市场经济的理想之选。", "index": 979}
{"en": "Money naturally flows to where utility and value are being provided – and those flows are easy to track in national accounts.", "zh": "钱自然而然地流向了提供效用和价值的地方 — — 并且这些资金流可以轻易地在国民账户中进行追踪。", "index": 980}
{"en": "But much of what we are producing in the information age is neither rival nor excludible – and this changes the entire picture.", "zh": "但我们在信息时代所生产的许多东西既不具有竞争性，也不具有排他性 — — 这改变了整个局面。", "index": 981}
{"en": "The creation of information-age goods is difficult to incentivize; their distribution is hard to monetize; and we lack the tools to track them easily in national accounts.", "zh": "信息时代商品的制造很难施加激励；它们的分配也难以货币化；我们也缺乏工具在国民账户中轻易地追踪它们。", "index": 982}
{"en": "The result is an ever-growing discrepancy between what people would be willing to pay for a given service and growth as measured in national statistics.", "zh": "结果是人们愿意为给定服务所支付的数量与国民统计所测量的增长之间的差异越来越大。", "index": 983}
{"en": "In other words, we are producing and consuming much more than our economic indicators suggest – and the creators of many of those products are not being adequately compensated.", "zh": "换句话说，我们生产和消费的数量比经济指标所显示的规模大得多 — — 而许多这些产品的额制造者没有获得充分的报偿。", "index": 984}
{"en": "This produces a set of unique problems.", "zh": "这就带来了一系列独特的问题。", "index": 985}
{"en": "To ensure that the workers of today and tomorrow are able to capture the benefits of the information age will require us to redesign our economic system to stimulate the creation of these new types of commodities.", "zh": "为了确保今天和明天的工人能够获得信息时代的好处，我们就必须重新设计经济制度以刺激这些新型商品的创造。", "index": 986}
{"en": "In addition to developing ways to account for this new type of wealth, we will have to develop channels through which demand for a product contributes to the income of its creator.", "zh": "除了找到记录这一新型财富的方法，我们还需要找到将让产品需求有利于创造者收入的渠道。", "index": 987}
{"en": "Only by finding ways to put true value on the goods we produce will we be able to sustain a middle-class society, rather than one of techno-plutocrats and their service-sector serfs.", "zh": "只有找到能准确衡量我们所制造的商品的额价值的方法，我们才能维持中产阶级社会，而不至于出现由技术大亨和他们的服务业农奴组成的社会。", "index": 988}
{"en": "Making Academia Matter Again", "zh": "让学术界重获新生", "index": 989}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Academic freedom is a precious commodity, critical to ensure that discovery of the truth is not encumbered by political or ideological forces.", "zh": "剑桥 — — 学术自由是对确保政治或意识形态势力不阻碍真相发现起关键作用的一种珍贵的商品。", "index": 990}
{"en": "But this does not mean that intellectuals should hide in academic bunkers that, by protecting us from criticism by “non-experts,” allow ego to flourish and enable a focus on questions that are not actually relevant to anyone else.", "zh": "但这并不意味着知识分子应当躲进学术掩体，在保护我们免受“非专家”责难的同时，允许自我意识迅速泛滥，允许自己关注对其他任何人都无关紧要的话题。", "index": 991}
{"en": "We experts should have to explain ourselves.", "zh": "我们这些专家应当向外界解释我们自己。", "index": 992}
{"en": "This means, first and foremost, that researchers should be communicating their results in a way that supports accountability and confirms that public funds and education benefits are being used in ways that are in taxpayers’ interests.", "zh": "首先这意味着研究人员应当以接受问责的方式向外界公开他们的研究成果，从而确保公共资金和教育福利的使用方式符合纳税人的利益。", "index": 993}
{"en": "The duty to communicate findings also ensures that the public is educated, not only about the topic itself, but also about the way research actually works.", "zh": "公开研究成果的义务也确保公众能够受到教育，这不仅关系到课题本身，同时也关系到学术研究的实际运作方式。", "index": 994}
{"en": "Scholarly books and journals often give the impression that the truth is revealed through a neat, orderly, and logical process.", "zh": "学术书籍和期刊往往给人留下这样的印象，那就是学术界通过整洁、有序而且合乎逻辑的方式来揭示真理。", "index": 995}
{"en": "But research is far from being a pristine landscape; in fact, it resembles a battlefield, littered with miscalculations, failed experiments, and discarded assumptions.", "zh": "但科学研究远不是什么纯粹地带；事实上，它更像一个战场，充满了计算失误、试验失败和最终被丢弃的假设。", "index": 996}
{"en": "The path to truth is often convoluted, and those who travel along it often must navigate fierce competition and professional intrigue.", "zh": "通往真理的道路往往迂回曲折，走在真理之路上的人们往往要经受激烈的竞争和专业阴谋。", "index": 997}
{"en": "Some argue that it is better to hide this reality from the public, in order to maintain credibility.", "zh": "有人提出为保持公信力，最好隐藏这样的事实。", "index": 998}
{"en": "For example, in 2014, physicists collaborating on a project known as BICEP2 thought that they had detected gravitational waves from the beginning of the universe.", "zh": "例如，2014年，合作参与BICEP2项目的物理学家以为已经探测到宇宙初期的引力波。", "index": 999}
{"en": "It was later realized that the signal they had detected could be entirely attributed to interstellar dust.", "zh": "但后来他们逐渐意识到所探测到的信号可能完全来源于星际尘埃。", "index": 1000}
{"en": "Some of my colleagues worried that this revelation would undermine faith in other scientific predictions, such as those involving climate change.", "zh": "我的某些同事担心这个消息一旦泄露出去，会影响人们对气候变化等其他科学预测的信心。", "index": 1001}
{"en": "But would hiding the truth from the public really do more for scientific and academic credibility than cultivating a culture of transparency?", "zh": "但对公众隐瞒真相是否真的比创造透明文化更有利于科学和学术的可信性？", "index": 1002}
{"en": "Probably not.", "zh": "也许并非如此。", "index": 1003}
{"en": "In fact, being honest about the realities of research might enhance trust and create more space for innovation, with an informed public accepting that risk is the unavoidable and worthwhile cost of groundbreaking and broadly beneficial discoveries.", "zh": "事实上，对研究现状保持诚实可以增强信任感并创造更多创新空间，在这种情况下，理性的公众接受科研风险不可避免，科研上付出的代价能为取得开创性和普遍有益的科研成果做出自己的贡献。", "index": 1004}
{"en": "Another way to ensure that academia continues to innovate in useful and relevant ways is to blur the traditional boundaries among disciplines – the frontiers where invention so often happens.", "zh": "确保学术界继续相关有效创新的另外一种方式是打破学科之间的传统界限 — — 创新发现往往诞生在这些前沿领域。", "index": 1005}
{"en": "To that end, universities should update their organizational structure, moving away from clearly delineated departments in order to create a kind of continuum across the arts, humanities, and sciences.", "zh": "为了实现这一目标，大学应当升级其组织结构，避免明确划定院系界限，以创造一种跨艺术、科学、人文的连续统一体。", "index": 1006}
{"en": "Students should be encouraged to take courses in multiple disciplines, so that they can weave those lessons and experiences into new patterns of knowledge.", "zh": "大学应鼓励学生学习多学科课程，以便他们能将经验和教训融入新的知识体系。", "index": 1007}
{"en": "To make this process sustainable, universities should ensure that the courses and curricula they offer help students to develop the skills that a fast-changing labor market demands.", "zh": "为使过程更具可持续性，大学应当确保所开设的课程能帮学生学到适应劳动力市场需求快速变化的新技术。", "index": 1008}
{"en": "This means not just creating new curricula today, but also updating them every few years, in order to account for new trends and discoveries in areas ranging from artificial intelligence and Big Data to alternative energy sources and genome editing.", "zh": "这意味着不仅现在要开设创新课程，而且要每隔几年更新一次，以便纳入从人工智能、大数据到替代能源和基因编辑领域的新发现和新趋势。", "index": 1009}
{"en": "Professors, for their part, should approach their job as mentors of future leaders in science, technology, the arts, and humanities, rather than attempting to mold students in their own intellectual image.", "zh": "对于教授们而言，他们应当成为科学、技术、艺术和人文等领域未来领袖的指导者，而不是试图让学生继承自己的学术衣钵。", "index": 1010}
{"en": "Of course, the latter approach can be useful if the goal is to advance the popularity of one’s own research program and to ensure that one’s own ideas and perspective endure.", "zh": "当然，如果目标是提高自身研究项目的普及度以及确保自身理念和观点能延续下去，后一种方法可能是有效的。", "index": 1011}
{"en": "But that is not the fundamental mission of academia.", "zh": "但这却与学术界的基本使命不符。", "index": 1012}
{"en": "The louder the consensus in the echo chambers of academia become, the greater the ego boost for those who inhabit those chambers.", "zh": "学术界面对相关共识的回声越响亮，就越能激发那些成果持有者的自我意识。", "index": 1013}
{"en": "But history shows that progress is sometimes advocated by a soft voice in the background, like that of Albert Einstein during his early career.", "zh": "但历史显示像阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的早期职业生涯一样，有时柔和的背景声更能推动进步。", "index": 1014}
{"en": "Truth and consensus are not always the same.", "zh": "真相和共识并不总是一回事。", "index": 1015}
{"en": "Diversity of opinion – which implies diversity of gender, ethnicity, and background – is vital to support creativity, discovery, and progress.", "zh": "见解的多样性 — — 意味着性别、种族和背景的多样性 — — 对支持创新发展和进步起到关键的作用。", "index": 1016}
{"en": "That is why it is so important for prizes and professional associations to be used not to reinforce mainstream perspectives, but rather to encourage independent thought and reward innovation.", "zh": "这也解释了为什么不能用奖项和专业协会来强化主流观点，反而要用它们来鼓励独立思考和奖励创新的原因。", "index": 1017}
{"en": "This does not mean that all opinions should be considered equal, but rather that alternative views should be debated and vetted on merit alone.", "zh": "但这并不意味着所有见解都应视为平等，而意味着应当探讨其他观点，并以价值作为审核的唯一依据。", "index": 1018}
{"en": "We in academia cannot continue to pat ourselves on the back, celebrating our own privileges and failing to look at the world in new and relevant ways.", "zh": "我们学术界不能再继续宠溺自己，忙于庆幸自己的特权而不能以新的相关方式看待这个世界。", "index": 1019}
{"en": "If we are to defend the freedom of our enterprise, we must restore dialogue with the broader public and ensure that the relevance of our work is well understood – including by us.", "zh": "如果要捍卫创新自由，我们必须恢复与广大公众进行对话，并确保所有人充分理解我们工作的相关性 — — 这其中也包括我们自身。", "index": 1020}
{"en": "The Closing of the Academic Mind", "zh": "学术精神的落幕", "index": 1021}
{"en": "LONDON – I would wager that I have been Chancellor of more universities than anyone alive today.", "zh": "伦敦 — — 我敢打赌我比现在活着的人当过更多所大学的校长。", "index": 1022}
{"en": "This is partly because when I was Governor of Hong Kong, I was made Chancellor of every university in the city.", "zh": "这部分因为在担任香港总督期间，我被任命为这座城市所有大学的校长。", "index": 1023}
{"en": "I protested that it would surely be better for the universities to choose their own constitutional heads.", "zh": "我抗议说应当让大学自主选择行政领导。", "index": 1024}
{"en": "But the universities would not allow me to resign gracefully.", "zh": "但大学却不允许我轻易辞职。", "index": 1025}
{"en": "So for five years I enjoyed the experience of giving tens of thousands of students their degrees and watching what this rite of passage meant for them and their families.", "zh": "因此有5年时间，我享受着为数以万计学子授予学位的体验，并亲眼目睹了这样的仪式对学子和他们的家庭意味着什么。", "index": 1026}
{"en": "When I came back to Britain in 1997, I was asked to become Chancellor of Newcastle University.", "zh": "1997年回到英国时，我被任命为纽卡斯尔大学的校长。", "index": 1027}
{"en": "Then, in 2003, I was elected Chancellor by the graduates of Oxford University, one of the world’s greatest institutions of learning.", "zh": "之后在2003年，我再次被毕业生推选为世界最伟大的学府之一，牛津大学的校长。", "index": 1028}
{"en": "So it should not be surprising that I have strong views about what it means to be a university and to teach, do research, or study at one.", "zh": "因此我对大学意味着什么、以及对校内教学、研究或学习有着强烈的观点也就不足为奇了。", "index": 1029}
{"en": "Universities should be bastions of freedom in any society.", "zh": "大学应当是一切社会的自由堡垒。", "index": 1030}
{"en": "They should be free from government interference in their primary purposes of research and teaching; and they should control their own academic governance.", "zh": "它们主要的研究和教学功能不应受到政府的干涉；它们应当能够控制自身的学术治理举措。", "index": 1031}
{"en": "I do not believe it is possible for a university to become or remain a world-class institution if these conditions do not exist.", "zh": "如果上述条件得不到满足，我不相信一所学校能够成为一所世界级的学府。", "index": 1032}
{"en": "The role of a university is to promote the clash of ideas, to test the results of research with other scholars, and to impart new knowledge to students.", "zh": "大学的功能是制造思想碰撞，与其他学者一道检验研究成果，以及对学生传授新的知识。", "index": 1033}
{"en": "Freedom of speech is thus fundamental to what universities are, enabling them to sustain a sense of common humanity and uphold the mutual tolerance and understanding that underpin any free society.", "zh": "言论自由因此对大学而言至关重要，它能让学者保持人类共同情感，并捍卫支撑任何自由社会的共同的理解和宽容。", "index": 1034}
{"en": "That, of course, makes universities dangerous to authoritarian governments, which seek to stifle the ability to raise and attempt to answer difficult questions.", "zh": "这当然导致独裁政府将大学视为危险，并试图遏制大学对疑难问题的提出和解答。", "index": 1035}
{"en": "But if any denial of academic liberty is a blow struck against the meaning of a university, the irony today is that some of the most worrying attacks on these values have been coming from inside universities.", "zh": "但如果任何否定学术自由的行为都是对大学意义的打击，那么今天最具有讽刺意义的却是某些对这些价值最令人担忧的攻击来源于大学内部。", "index": 1036}
{"en": "In the United States and the United Kingdom, some students and teachers now seek to constrain argument and debate.", "zh": "在美国和英国，某些学生和老师现在试图限制争鸣和辩论。", "index": 1037}
{"en": "They contend that people should not be exposed to ideas with which they strongly disagree.", "zh": "他们争辩说人们根本不应该听到他们强烈反对的想法。", "index": 1038}
{"en": "Moreover, they argue that history should be rewritten to expunge the names (though not the endowments) of those who fail to pass today’s tests of political correctness.", "zh": "此外，他们还提出应当将未能通过今天政治正确性测试者的名字（虽非才能）从历史上抹去。", "index": 1039}
{"en": "Thomas Jefferson and Cecil Rhodes, among others, have been targeted.", "zh": "托马斯·杰斐逊和塞西尔·罗兹就包括在这些名字当中。", "index": 1040}
{"en": "And how would Churchill and Washington fare if the same tests were applied to them?", "zh": "如果对丘吉尔和华盛顿进行同样的测试，他们的成绩将会如何？", "index": 1041}
{"en": "Some people are being denied the chance to speak as well – so-called “no platforming”, in the awful jargon of some clearly not very literate campuses.", "zh": "在某些显然不太有文化的校园常见的可怕行话（所谓的“无平台化 ” ） 里，某些人说话的机会被彻底剥夺。", "index": 1042}
{"en": "There are calls for “safe spaces” where students can be protected from anything that assaults their sense of what is moral and appropriate.", "zh": "有些人呼吁建立安全空间，确保违反“道德”和“恰当”认知的任何行为都不会被学生接触到。", "index": 1043}
{"en": "This reflects and inevitably nurtures a harmful politics of victimization – defining one’s own identity (and thus one’s interests) in opposition to others.", "zh": "这反应并必将孕育一种有害的牺牲政治 — — 即划定与别人相对立的自我身份（和自我利益 ） 。", "index": 1044}
{"en": "When I was a student 50 years ago, my principal teacher was a leading Marxist historian and former member of the Communist Party.", "zh": "50年前当我还是学生时，我主要的老师是一位著名的马克思主义历史学家兼前共产党。", "index": 1045}
{"en": "The British security services were deeply suspicious of him.", "zh": "英国安全部门非常怀疑他。", "index": 1046}
{"en": "He was a great historian and teacher, but these days I might be encouraged to think that he had threatened my “safe space.”", "zh": "他是一位伟大的历史学家和教师，但现在我却可能在外界鼓励下认为我的“安全空间”被他侵犯了。", "index": 1047}
{"en": "In fact, he made me a great deal better informed, more open to discussion of ideas that challenged my own, more capable of distinguishing between an argument and a quarrel, and more prepared to think for myself.", "zh": "事实上，他在很大程度上拓宽了我的视野，让我以开放的态度面对挑战自己想法的讨论，更有能力区分辩论和争吵，也更能独立思考事情的对错。", "index": 1048}
{"en": "Of course, some ideas – incitement of racial hatred, gender hostility, or political violence – are anathema in every free society.", "zh": "当然种族仇恨、性别敌意或政治暴力煽动等某些想法在任何一个自由社会都是被深恶痛绝的。", "index": 1049}
{"en": "Liberty requires some limits (decided freely by democratic argument under the rule of law) in order to exist.", "zh": "自由的存在需要（在法治条件下由民主辩论自由决定的）某种限度。", "index": 1050}
{"en": "Universities should be trusted to exercise that degree of control themselves.", "zh": "应当相信大学有能力加以自控。", "index": 1051}
{"en": "But intolerance of debate, of discussion, and of particular branches of scholarship should never be tolerated.", "zh": "但不容许辩论、探讨和特定学术领域的存在是永远不能被容忍的。", "index": 1052}
{"en": "As the great political philosopher Karl Popper taught us, the only thing we should be intolerant of is intolerance itself.", "zh": "正如伟大的政治哲学家卡尔·波普教导我们的那样，我们唯一不能容忍的特质应当是偏狭。", "index": 1053}
{"en": "That is especially true at universities.", "zh": "尤其在大学里更应当这样。", "index": 1054}
{"en": "Yet some American and British academics and students are themselves undermining freedom; paradoxically, they have the liberty to do so.", "zh": "而某些美国和英国的学者和学生本身就在破坏自由；荒谬的是，他们有自由这样做。", "index": 1055}
{"en": "Meanwhile, universities in China and Hong Kong are faced with threats to their autonomy and freedom, not from within, but from an authoritarian government.", "zh": "此外，中国和香港大学的自主权和自由正面临威胁，这些威胁并非来自于学校内部，而是来自于独裁政府。", "index": 1056}
{"en": "In Hong Kong, the autonomy of universities and free speech itself, guaranteed in the city’s Basic Law and the 50-year treaty between Britain and China on the city’s status, are under threat.", "zh": "在香港，城市基本法和中英50年条约共同规定的大学自主权及言论自由本身正在遭受威胁。", "index": 1057}
{"en": "The rationale seems to be that, because students strongly supported the pro-democracy protests in 2014, the universities where they study should be brought to heel.", "zh": "理由似乎是因为学生强烈支持2014年的民主抗议活动，他们所就读的大学应当受到惩罚。", "index": 1058}
{"en": "So the city’s government blunders away, stirring up trouble, clearly on the orders of the government in Beijing.", "zh": "于是香港政府匆匆忙忙地挑起事端，显然是在北京政府的命令之下。", "index": 1059}
{"en": "Indeed, the Chinese authorities only recently showed what they think of treaty obligations and of the “golden age” of Sino-British relations (much advertised by British ministers), by abducting a British citizen (and four other Hong Kong residents) on the city’s streets.", "zh": "事实上，通过在香港大街上绑架一名英国公民（和其他四名香港居民）的行为，中国政府最近才向外界表明他们对中英关系“黄金年代”条约义务（受到英国大臣们广为宣传）的看法。", "index": 1060}
{"en": "The five were publishing books that exposed some of the dirty secrets of China’s leaders.", "zh": "这5人出版的书籍揭露了中国领导人某些不可见人的秘密。", "index": 1061}
{"en": "On the mainland, the Chinese Communist Party has launched the biggest crackdown on universities since the aftermath of the killings in Tiananmen Square in 1989.", "zh": "在大陆，中国共产党对大学发动了继1989年天安门广场屠杀事件后最大规模的镇压。", "index": 1062}
{"en": "There is to be no discussion of so-called Western values in China’s universities. Only Marxism can be taught.", "zh": "中国大学不允许讨论所谓西方价值观，只允许教授马克思主义。", "index": 1063}
{"en": "Did no one tell President Xi Jinping and his Politburo colleagues where Karl Marx came from?", "zh": "难道没有人告诉习近平主席及其政治局同事卡尔·马克思从哪里来？", "index": 1064}
{"en": "The trouble these days is precisely that they know little about Marx but a lot about Lenin.", "zh": "现在的问题恰恰是他们对马克思知之甚少，但却对列宁了解颇多。", "index": 1065}
{"en": "Westerners should take a closer interest in what is happening in China’s universities and what that tells us about the real values underpinning scholarship, teaching, and the academy.", "zh": "西方人应密切关注中国大学正在发生的事件，以及它们对支撑学术、教学和学院的实际价值是什么？", "index": 1066}
{"en": "Compare and contrast, as students are asked to do.", "zh": "我们要学会像学生那样进行对比和比较。", "index": 1067}
{"en": "Do you want universities where the government decides what it is allegedly safe for you to learn and discuss?", "zh": "由政府决定什么能安全学习和探讨的大学是否符合你的愿望？", "index": 1068}
{"en": "Or do you want universities that regard the idea of a “safe space” – in terms of closing down debate in case it offends someone – as an oxymoron in an academic setting?", "zh": "你心目中的大学是否将“安全空间”理念 — — 即在冒犯他人的情况下停止讨论 — — 视为学术环境中的矛盾修饰法？", "index": 1069}
{"en": "Western students should think occasionally about their counterparts in Hong Kong and China who must fight for freedoms that they take for granted – and too often abuse.", "zh": "西方学生应时时想起他们在香港和中国的同伴，这些人仍在争取他们所熟视无睹 — — 甚至往往随意滥用的自由。", "index": 1070}
{"en": "The New Brain Drain in Science", "zh": "科研领域新一轮人才流失", "index": 1071}
{"en": "DUBAI – In December 2013, the Nobel laureate physicist Peter Higgs told The Guardian that if he were seeking a job in academia today, “I don’t think I would be regarded as productive enough.”", "zh": "迪拜 — — 2013年12月，诺贝尔物理学奖得主彼得·希格斯在接受卫报采访时表示，如果他今天在学术界求职 ， “ 我恐怕不会被认为是最高效的。", "index": 1072}
{"en": "Having published fewer than ten papers since his groundbreaking work in 1964, Higgs believes that no university would employ him nowadays.", "zh": "”因为在1964年发表突破之作后迄今为止仅发表过不到十篇论文，希格斯认为今天没有哪家大学会雇佣他。", "index": 1073}
{"en": "Academics are well acquainted with the notion of “publish or perish.”", "zh": "“出版或者毁灭”是当今学者熟悉的概念。", "index": 1074}
{"en": "They must publish their work in peer-reviewed journals increasingly often to climb the career ladder, protect their jobs, and secure funding for their institutions.", "zh": "他们必须越来越多地在同行评议杂志上发表作品，才能攀登职业阶梯、保住工作岗位和为所在机构争取研究经费。", "index": 1075}
{"en": "But what happens to scientists and other scholars, such as those in the Middle East, who have different research concerns from – and scant connections to – the professional journals that can make or break an academic/scientific career?", "zh": "但那些研究重点迥异且与今天能造就或毁灭学术/科研生涯的专业期刊鲜有联系的科学家和其他学者（比方说中东学者）又该怎么办？", "index": 1076}
{"en": "Scholars and institutions with high publishing rates in the established journals receive better productivity scores, which translate into bigger rewards, in terms of enhanced careers and greater research funding.", "zh": "在著名期刊拥有高出版率的学者和科研机构效率得分较高，进而在职业生涯发展和研究经费支持方面得到更多奖励。", "index": 1077}
{"en": "Whether the work they are publishing has a measurable impact on their field of study is, sadly, too often a secondary concern.", "zh": "但可悲的是，他们所发表的作品对所在研究领域能否产生可以度量的影响却往往不那么被外界关注。", "index": 1078}
{"en": "The incentives they face mean that quantity often comes before quality.", "zh": "他们所面临的激励机制意味着数量往往比质量重要。", "index": 1079}
{"en": "Academic journals determine the various disciplinary rankings that academic institutions are compelled to climb, which leads institutions to hire and retain only those scholars who can produce at high rates.", "zh": "学术期刊决定科研机构被动研究的学科领域排名，从而导致科研机构仅仅雇佣并保留那些高效率的学者。", "index": 1080}
{"en": "This has given rise to a deeper, twofold problem: academic journals have become disproportionately influential, and they have placed a premium on empirical research.", "zh": "由此导致了更深层次的双重问题：学术期刊的影响力已经过于庞大，而且它们过分鼓励实证研究。", "index": 1081}
{"en": "With respect to the first problem, journals are gradually replacing institutions as the arbiters of quality within academic communities.", "zh": "在第一个问题上，期刊正逐步取代科研机构成为学术成果质量的评判者。", "index": 1082}
{"en": "Scholars in almost any discipline seeking jobs at “A-level” institutions must publish in a select few A-level journals that are seen as gateways.", "zh": "几乎任何领域想在“A级”研究机构求职的学者都必须在几本被公认为入门通道的A级杂志上发表研究成果。", "index": 1083}
{"en": "These journals’ editorial boards increasingly privilege positivist theoretical work – meaning research that is based on empirical data analysis.", "zh": "上述期刊的编辑委员会越来越偏爱实证主义理论研究作品 — — 也就是说以实证数据分析为基础的研究。", "index": 1084}
{"en": "Qualitative research – such as ethnographies, participatory surveys, and case studies – is often designated as suitable only for B- and C-level journals.", "zh": "定性研究 — — 如民族志、参与性调查和案例研究等 — — 往往被定性为只适合B级或C级期刊发表。", "index": 1085}
{"en": "Academics conducting empirical research have a big advantage over those carrying out qualitative work, because they can use efficient software and powerful computers to test their hypotheses quickly and account for different variables in data sets.", "zh": "相比那些从事定性研究的学者，从事实证研究的学者优势非常显著。 因为他们可以使用高效软件和功能强大的电脑来快速测试假设，并计算数据集中不同变量的影响。", "index": 1086}
{"en": "This kind of work can be cheaper, too, because a single data set can generate multiple journal articles.", "zh": "此类工作也可以降低成本，因为单个数据集可以产出多篇期刊文章。", "index": 1087}
{"en": "To be sure, there is nothing wrong with scientific practices evolving along with technology, or with academics using richer data sets and better software.", "zh": "可以肯定，科学实践随技术演进、抑或学术界使用更丰富的数据集和更先进的软件都属于正常现象。", "index": 1088}
{"en": "But adoption of this quantitative approach should not be the single most important criterion for assessing scientific excellence and deciding career trajectories.", "zh": "但这种定量方法的采用不应成为评估科学卓越性和决定职业轨迹的唯一重要的衡量指标。", "index": 1089}
{"en": "After all, knowledge is acquired in different ways, and empirical positivism is only one method in a larger epistemological inventory.", "zh": "毕竟知识是以不同方式取得的，而经验实证主义仅仅是广义认识论宝库中的一项法则。", "index": 1090}
{"en": "The positivist trend in science today is particularly problematic for developing countries, where data sets are scarce and often of poor quality.", "zh": "今天的实证主义趋势对发展中国家而言问题尤为严重，因为发展中国家不仅数据集稀缺，而且往往质量较差。", "index": 1091}
{"en": "Thus, scientists working in developing countries face a dilemma: either work on rich-world problems for which there is abundant data, or risk career advancement by conducting qualitative work that will not make it into A-level journals.", "zh": "因此，在发展中国家工作的科学家们面临着囚徒困境：或者研究有着丰富数据的富裕国家问题，或者甘冒职业生涯之险而进行无缘进入A级期刊的定性研究。", "index": 1092}
{"en": "Academics who move from data-rich countries in Europe and North America to data-poor countries in the Middle East and elsewhere often face this problem.", "zh": "从欧洲和北美等数据丰富国家迁往中东等数据贫乏国家的学者往往面临着这样的问题。", "index": 1093}
{"en": "As researchers at my institution in Abu Dhabi know, conducting surveys for qualitative research is feasible; but generating rich data from scratch for theory-building research is extremely difficult.", "zh": "正如阿布扎比我所在科研机构的研究人员所知的那样，采集调研数据用于进行定性研究尚属可行；但从零开始搜集理论建设研究所需的丰富数据却是极其困难的。", "index": 1094}
{"en": "At the International Conference on Science and Technology Indicators this year, a French academic researching soil in Africa reported that only 5% of the published work in his field has originated from African researchers.", "zh": "在今年召开的科学技术指标国际���议上，一位研究非洲土壤的法国学者报告在他所研究的领域，仅有5%的出版作品来自非洲研究者。", "index": 1095}
{"en": "When he dug deeper into his own research, he found that 50% of what he had learned about African soil came from African researchers, who have not or could not publish their work in international academic journals.", "zh": "但当他深入研究自己的研究成果时，却发现他对非洲土壤的认识有50%来自非洲研究者，而这些研究人员的成果没有也不可能在国际学术期刊上发表。", "index": 1096}
{"en": "Countries where English is not the lingua franca are particularly disadvantaged in science, not because they lack academic excellence, but because English-language journals call the shots.", "zh": "英语不是通用语的国家在科研方面处境尤其不利，这绝非因为他们学术科研水平不高，而是因为科学界由英语期刊来扮演发号施令的角色。", "index": 1097}
{"en": "Non-English academic journals simply do not command the same attention in the science community.", "zh": "非英语学术期刊在科学界根本得不到同样的关注。", "index": 1098}
{"en": "As a result, the scope of research topics that many countries can undertake is limited, and they must struggle to retain scientific talent.", "zh": "结果导致许多国家可以进行的研究课题范围有限，因此必须拼尽全力才能将科研人才留在本国。", "index": 1099}
{"en": "This is particularly true in the Middle East, where governments are struggling to diversify their economies, in order to make them more resilient.", "zh": "中东地区的情况尤其如此，各国政府正努力实现经济多样化，从而使国民经济适应性得到提高。", "index": 1100}
{"en": "As English-language empirical-research journals consolidate their hold on the channels that determine whether or not a scientist will have a successful career, developing countries will have to invest heavily in their own data infrastructure to place domestic researchers on a more competitive footing.", "zh": "因为英语实证研究期刊进一步增强了对科学家能否取得职业成功渠道的控制，发展中国家必须大量投资于国内数据基础设施，才能使国内研究人员处在更具竞争力的科研地位上。", "index": 1101}
{"en": "But even – or especially – if developing countries do make such investments, much will be lost to science.", "zh": "但即使 — — 或者尤其 — — 如果发展中国家确实进行这样的投资，将给科研领域造成非常严重的后果。", "index": 1102}
{"en": "With (mostly) United States-based academic journals reigning over global science, no one has to move to become part of a new brain drain, whereby scientists’ research priorities, problems, and methods gravitate to the dominant positivist epistemology, at the expense of all alternatives.", "zh": "因为统治全球科学的学术期刊（多数）来自美国，科学家不用实际迁移就会成为新人才流失的组成部分，科学家的研究重点、问题和方法将会牺牲其他选择而转向目前占主导地位的实证主义认识研究。", "index": 1103}
{"en": "Closing the Financial Services’ Accessibility Gap", "zh": "填补金融服务普及差距", "index": 1104}
{"en": "KAMPALA – Last month, the United Kingdom hosted the first-ever Global Disability Summit to help focus the world’s attention on the needs of people with disabilities.", "zh": "坎帕拉—上个月，英国举办了首届全球残疾峰会，帮助世界聚焦残障人士的需要。", "index": 1105}
{"en": "The agenda was packed with topics like building equitable education, ending discrimination, and bringing technology to disabled communities – especially poor countries in the Global South.", "zh": "会议日程包括构建平等教育、消除歧视、为残疾人士带去技术等话题 — — 特别是针对全球南方的穷国。", "index": 1106}
{"en": "But one challenge that did not receive the attention it deserved is an often-overlooked component of development policy: access to financial services.", "zh": "但有一个挑战没有受到应有的关注，那就是常常被忽略的发展政策要素：金融服务的普及。", "index": 1107}
{"en": "This was a missed opportunity – not only for the world’s one billion disabled people, but also for the institutions that should be serving them.", "zh": "这是一个措施的机会 — — 不仅对于全球十亿残障人士是如此，对应该为他们提供服务的机构亦然。", "index": 1108}
{"en": "Increasing the accessibility of financial services is good for business and economic growth.", "zh": "金融服务的日益普及对于商业和经济增长都是好事。", "index": 1109}
{"en": "According to research by Barclays, when customers with disabilities are able to manage their money, economic vulnerability declines and overall economic health improves.", "zh": "据巴克莱银行（Barclays）的研究，如果残障客户能够管理他们的钱，经济脆弱性就能减少，总体经济健康就能改善。", "index": 1110}
{"en": "Moreover, with more than $1 trillion in disposable income, the so-called disability market is among the biggest potential client bases in the world. In other words, financial-service providers have every reason to cater to people with disabilities.", "zh": "此外，所谓的残疾市场拥有超1万亿美元的可支配收入，是全球最大的潜在客户群体之一。", "index": 1111}
{"en": "Why, then, are most businesses doing just the opposite?", "zh": "那么，为什么大部分企业要反其道而行之？", "index": 1112}
{"en": "One reason is a lack of awareness.", "zh": "一个原因是缺乏认识。", "index": 1113}
{"en": "Because people with disabilities typically have less income than their nondisabled peers, service providers have often lacked an incentive to extend support to them.", "zh": "残障人士通常比无残障人士收入更少，因此服务提供商常常缺少将支持覆盖到他们的激励。", "index": 1114}
{"en": "But, with more attention being paid to total market potential, financial institutions are starting to adjust their product lines accordingly.", "zh": "但是，随着市场总潜力获得越来越多的关注，金融机构也开始调整产品线。", "index": 1115}
{"en": "As they do, four issues must be addressed to maximize the benefits for customers with accessibility challenges.", "zh": "在此过程中，为了存在金融服务普及困难的客户的利益，必须解决四个问题。", "index": 1116}
{"en": "First, financial-services companies must work harder to understand the needs of current and future clients.", "zh": "首先，金融服务公司必须更加努力地理解当前和未来客户需求。", "index": 1117}
{"en": "For example, with better data, a bank in a particular market could improve the accessibility of its mobile-banking platforms.", "zh": "比如，有了更好的数据，某个市场中的银行就能改善移动银行平台的普及。", "index": 1118}
{"en": "This is essentially what happened at Standard Chartered Bank in India last year, when employees developed a voice-assisted system to help visually impaired customers access their accounts online.", "zh": "去年渣打银行在印度就是这么做的，其员工开发了语音辅助系统帮助视觉障碍客户能够获得在线账户。", "index": 1119}
{"en": "Good data are also essential to the effectiveness of advocacy groups as they push providers to improve their services.", "zh": "好数据对于利益推动组织敦促供应商改善服务的效率也至关重要。", "index": 1120}
{"en": "Second, engagement must not stop with innovative products; it must also be extended to the labor market.", "zh": "其次，参与决不能只限于创新产品；还必须扩大到劳动力市场。", "index": 1121}
{"en": "Simply put, the financial-services industry should hire more people with disabilities by investing in assistive technologies like braille readers and alternative and augmentative communication devices.", "zh": "简言之，金融服务业应该雇用更多残障人士，投资于盲文阅读器等辅助技术和另类和增强沟通设备。", "index": 1122}
{"en": "The need to diversify the workforce is particularly acute in the United States, where one in five people has a disability.", "zh": "员工多样化的需求在美国尤其紧急，五分之一的美国人身带残疾。", "index": 1123}
{"en": "Third, people with disabilities must always be included in discussions about how to expand and strengthen financial independence.", "zh": "第三，必须一直将残障人士纳入关于如何扩大和加强金融独立性的讨论中。", "index": 1124}
{"en": "In 2013, when the Lloyds Banking Group convened a focus group to examine the effects of dementia on customer behavior, engagement with clients led to the charter on Dementia-friendly Financial Services.", "zh": "2013年，劳埃德银行集团（Lloyds Banking Group）组建了一个焦点小组考察痴呆对客户行为的影响，与客户的交流最后形成了痴呆友好金融服务章程。", "index": 1125}
{"en": "This innovative document codified how banks should tailor products to clients with cognitive impairments.", "zh": "这份创新文件规定了银行应该如何定制产品为认知障碍客户服务。", "index": 1126}
{"en": "Future initiatives should follow this collaborative model to ensure that decision-making at all levels is facilitated by human-centered design.", "zh": "未来方案应该遵循这一合作模式以确保各层次决策都有以人为本设计的推动。", "index": 1127}
{"en": "And, lastly, governments must commit to addressing this issue, by emulating the action of countries like the UK, which has linked services for the disabled to development funding.", "zh": "最后，政府应该致力于解决这一问题，效仿英国等国家的措施。 英国将残障人士服务与发展拨款挂钩。", "index": 1128}
{"en": "With the right support, progress on these complex challenges can be sweeping; for example, at Financial Sector Deepening Uganda, where I work, we are using British aid money to extend financial services to the disabled in rural communities.", "zh": "有了正确的支持，这些复杂挑战就能取得决定性的进展；比如，在我供职的乌干达金融业深化组织（Financial Sector Deepening Uganda ） ， 我们用英国援助资金扩大农村地区残障人士的金融服务。", "index": 1129}
{"en": "Our vision is to encourage the emergence of similar programs in many other countries around the world.", "zh": "我们的愿景是鼓励其他国家也出现类似的项目。", "index": 1130}
{"en": "With 91 countries having already ratified the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, it is clear that there is plenty of political support for these initiatives.", "zh": "已有91个国家签署了残疾人权利共约可选议定书，显然对于这些项目有足够的政治支持。", "index": 1131}
{"en": "The challenge now is to turn pledges into action.", "zh": "现在的挑战是如何将承诺兑现为行动。", "index": 1132}
{"en": "In the coming decades, the world’s disabled population will grow as medical advances allow people to live longer, healthier, fuller lives.", "zh": "在未来几十年中，随着医学进步让人活得更长久、更健康、更充实，世界残障人口数量也会增长。", "index": 1133}
{"en": "Providing the disabled with access to financial services and products is among the best ways to guard against discrimination and nurture long-term empowerment.", "zh": "让残障人士活得金融服务和产品是防止歧视、促进长期赋能的最佳办法之一。", "index": 1134}
{"en": "Full financial inclusion will come slowly for a community often referred to as the “fastest-growing minority group in the world.”", "zh": "这一通常被称为“全球增长最快的少数群体”的完全的金融包容正在缓慢实现。", "index": 1135}
{"en": "The task for activists, advocates, enlightened business leaders, and policymakers is to highlight the social and economic benefits of success.", "zh": "活动家、提倡者、开明商界领袖和决策者的任务是强调成功的社会和经济利益。", "index": 1136}
{"en": "Surgery for All", "zh": "让每个人都能手术", "index": 1137}
{"en": "BOSTON – On a recent trip to India, I hailed a rickshaw that was pedaled, I soon noticed, by a man with a lame leg.", "zh": "波士顿 — — 不久前，去印度旅行时，我雇了一辆脚踏的黄包车，我很快就发现，车夫的腿是瘸的。", "index": 1138}
{"en": "It turns out that a few weeks earlier, the driver had been hit by a car while navigating the busy streets of New Delhi.", "zh": "原来在几周前，车夫在新德里繁忙的街道上穿行时被一辆汽车撞了。", "index": 1139}
{"en": "Although he had managed to obtain medication from a local pharmacy for the agonizing pain – probably because his leg was broken – he could spare neither the time nor the money to see a surgeon.", "zh": "尽管他也设法从当地药房拿到了止痛药 — — 这样的剧烈疼痛可能因为他的腿断了 — — 但他既没有时间也没有钱去看外科。", "index": 1140}
{"en": "This type of tragic calculus is strikingly common.", "zh": "这种充满悲剧性的考量其普遍程度令人震惊。", "index": 1141}
{"en": "The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery estimates that some five billion people – almost 70% of the world’s population – lack access to safe, affordable surgical and anesthetic care, while 33 million people are saddled with unbearably high health expenses.", "zh": "据柳叶刀全球外科委员会估计，约有50亿人 — — 几乎占到全球人口总数的70 % — —都无法获得安全、经济的手术和麻醉服务，而高达3，300万人则背负着无法承受的高额医疗费用。", "index": 1142}
{"en": "Not surprisingly, the global poor suffer disproportionately: while low-income countries are home to close to 35% of humanity, they account for just 3.5% of all surgical procedures.", "zh": "不出所料，受影响的绝大多数集中在全球贫困人口：虽然低收入国家占全球人口总数的近35 % ， 但在能接受外科手术的人当中却仅占3.5%的份额。", "index": 1143}
{"en": "One of the biggest obstacles to achieving universal health coverage – which the United Nations has declared a global goal – is financing.", "zh": "融资是实现全民医疗覆盖一个最大的障碍 — — 已经被联合国宣布为全球目标。", "index": 1144}
{"en": "And, paradoxical as it may sound, one of the best ways that governments can get the money they need to expand coverage is by making surgery more widely available.", "zh": "而且，听上去可能有些自相矛盾，政府可以获得扩大覆盖资金的一种最佳方式就是扩大手术的覆盖范围。", "index": 1145}
{"en": "Time-sensitive health problems – such as injuries from traffic accidents and pregnancy-related complications – are among the leading causes of death and disability in low- and middle-income countries.", "zh": "时间敏感度相对较高的健康问题 — — 例如交通事故伤害和因妊娠引起的并发症 — — 是导致中低收入国家死亡和残疾的主要原因之一。", "index": 1146}
{"en": "But untreated or undertreated conditions requiring surgery also hurt economic productivity.", "zh": "但未经治疗或治疗不足然而却需要手术的病情同样有损经济生产力。", "index": 1147}
{"en": "For example, the Lancet study estimated that the failure to improve surgical care in developing countries would translate into $12.3 trillion of lost economic output by 2030.", "zh": "例如，据柳叶刀研究估计，未能改善发展中国家的手术治疗截止2030年可以导致12.3万亿美元的巨额经济产出损失。", "index": 1148}
{"en": "Failure to maintain strong surgical capacity could even undercut economic gains made by middle-income countries, reducing total GDP growth by approximately 2% annually.", "zh": "无法维持强大的手术能力甚至可能削弱中等收入国家所取得的经济效益，每年影响约2%的总GDP增长率。", "index": 1149}
{"en": "For many leaders, the common perception is that provision of surgical care is not sustainable or cost-effective.", "zh": "许多领导人普遍认为提供外科手术既不可持续也不具备成本效益。", "index": 1150}
{"en": "When faced with tough budget choices, governments often favor programs that combat infectious and chronic diseases, leaving people like my rickshaw driver in the lurch.", "zh": "因此当面临艰难的预算选择时，政府往往更倾向于抗击慢性及传染性疾病的项目，从而导致像我的人力车夫那样的民众陷入困境。", "index": 1151}
{"en": "But a growing body of evidence suggests that these views are misplaced.", "zh": "但越来越多的证据表明，这样的观点并不正确。", "index": 1152}
{"en": "When researchers at the Harvard Medical School analyzed surgical interventions in low- and middle-income countries, they found a remarkable disconnect between economic assumptions and reality.", "zh": "当哈佛大学医学院的研究人员分析中低收入国家的外科手术干预时，他们发现经济假设和现实之间存在非常显著的脱节 。", "index": 1153}
{"en": "For example, they calculated that money spent on cesarean sections and joint surgeries yields higher returns than spending on the management of HIV or heart disease.", "zh": "例如，他们计算出花在剖腹产和联合手术上的经费比花在艾滋病毒或心脏病管理方面的经费能够带来更高的效益。", "index": 1154}
{"en": "To be sure, chronic and infectious diseases need our attention, too; we cannot restructure health systems overnight, nor should we turn our backs on those being treated for non-surgical illnesses.", "zh": "可以肯定，慢性及传染性疾病也需要引起我们的重视；我们无法在一夜之间重组整个卫生系统，而且我们也不应当抛弃那些因为非手术型疾病而接受治疗的人。", "index": 1155}
{"en": "But reforms that focus more attention on the importance of surgery would boost economic productivity and help create more equitable health care for everyone.", "zh": "但更多关注手术重要性的改革可以提高经济生产率，并有助于为所有人创造更加公平的医疗环境。", "index": 1156}
{"en": "For starters, health ministries and physician organizations should formally recognize that surgical and anesthetic care are an essential part of universal health coverage.", "zh": "首先，卫生部和医生联合会应当正式承认，手术和麻醉护理是全民医疗覆盖的重要组成部分之一。", "index": 1157}
{"en": "To make this case, health-care providers will need to improve their collection and analysis of data on surgical outcomes, which would increase transparency on mortality and morbidity and strengthen overall accountability.", "zh": "为证明这一点，医疗保健提供机构应加强他们对手术结果数据的搜集和分析，这样做可以增加死亡率和发病率等数据的透明度，并强化问责制。", "index": 1158}
{"en": "Decisions about how to expand services could be guided by the Lancet commission’s core indicators on “preparedness,” “delivery,” and “impact” of surgical care.", "zh": "柳叶刀委员会有关外科治疗“术前准备 ” 、 “术中实施”和“术后影响”的核心指标可以用来指导扩大手术服务的决策。", "index": 1159}
{"en": "Second, to pool risk and guard against cost overruns, countries that are considering universal coverage policies should put surgical care under publicly financed plans.", "zh": "其次，为集中风险并防范成本超支，正在考虑全民覆盖政策的国家应在公共资助计划中纳入外科医疗服务。", "index": 1160}
{"en": "While some funding for expanding surgical services could come from taxation, health-care providers should also explore innovative financing options – such as “social justice models,” whereby people pay according to their means.", "zh": "虽然扩大手术服务的部分资金可以来源于税收，但医疗保健机构也应当探索创新融资方式 — — 即民众可以根据自身经济条件支付的“社会公平模式 ” 。", "index": 1161}
{"en": "Finally, to streamline resources and increase surgical capacity, hospitals should explore task-sharing, whereby non-emergency cases are referred to licensed nurses and physician assistants.", "zh": "最后，为简化资源运用并强化手术能力，医院应探索任务共享，将非紧急病例转诊至持证护士和医师助理。", "index": 1162}
{"en": "Longer-term strategies include investing more in medical education to bolster the ranks of doctors and surgeons.", "zh": "更为长期的策略包括加大在医学教育领域的资金投入，以建设医生和外科医师队伍。", "index": 1163}
{"en": "The tremendous economic progress that many developing countries have made in recent decades has been largely driven by vibrant, young, and ambitious populations.", "zh": "充满活力和雄心勃勃的年轻人一直推动着近几十年来强势的经济崛起。", "index": 1164}
{"en": "One of the most effective ways to maintain this growth and development is to ensure access to safe and affordable healthcare – including surgery.", "zh": "保持这种增长和发展最有效的手段之一是确保人们能够得到包括手术在内的安全和廉价的医疗服务。", "index": 1165}
{"en": "While the cost of providing it may be high, the cost of not providing it is even higher.", "zh": "虽然提供手术服务的成本可能很高，但与不提供手术服务的代价却完全无法相比。", "index": 1166}
{"en": "Polluters Must Pay", "zh": "污染者必须负责", "index": 1167}
{"en": "NEW YORK – When BP and its drilling partners caused the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the United States government demanded that BP finance the cleanup, compensate those who suffered damages, and pay criminal penalties for the violations that led to the disaster.", "zh": "发自纽约 — — 当英国石油公司及其搭档瑞士越洋钻探公司于2010年在墨西哥湾引发“深水地平线”漏油事故时，美国政府不但要求英国石油公司承担油污清理费用，赔偿受害者损失，还要为导致此次灾难的违规行为接受刑事处罚。", "index": 1168}
{"en": "BP has already committed more than $20 billion in remediation and penalties.", "zh": "英国石油公司已经为该事故调拨了200多亿美元用于善后补救工作和交纳罚金。", "index": 1169}
{"en": "Based on a settlement last week, BP will now pay the largest criminal penalty in US history – $4.5 billion.", "zh": "根据上周达成的协议，英国石油公司将支付美国历史上最大的一 笔刑事罚款 — — 45亿美元。", "index": 1170}
{"en": "The same standards for environmental cleanup need to be applied to global companies operating in poorer countries, where their power has typically been so great relative to that of governments that many act with impunity, wreaking havoc on the environment with little or no accountability.", "zh": "同样的环境事故清理善后标准也应运用到那些在贫困国家经营的国际企业身上。 这些大公司的势力相对当地政府来说通常极为巨大，以致许多公司都是在豁免权下活动，可以对环境造成严重破坏却极少或无需承担责任。", "index": 1171}
{"en": "As we enter a new era of sustainable development, impunity must turn to responsibility.", "zh": "随着我们进入一个可持续发展的新时代，豁免权应该转向责任制。", "index": 1172}
{"en": "Polluters must pay, whether in rich or poor countries.", "zh": "不管是在富国还是穷国，污染者必须付出代价。", "index": 1173}
{"en": "Major companies need to accept responsibility for their actions.", "zh": "大公司应该为它们的行为承担相应的责任。", "index": 1174}
{"en": "Nigeria has been Exhibit A of corporate environmental impunity.", "zh": "尼日利亚就曾经是企业逍遥于环境污染惩罚之外的例子。", "index": 1175}
{"en": "For decades, major oil companies, including Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron, have been producing oil in the Niger Delta, an ecologically fragile environment of freshwater swamp forests, mangroves, lowland rainforests, and coastal barrier islands.", "zh": "几十年来，包括壳牌、埃克森美孚和雪弗龙在内的各大石油公司一直在尼日尔三角洲开采石油。 尼日尔三角洲是一个拥有淡水沼泽森林、红树林、低地雨林和沿海屏障岛屿的脆弱生态环境。", "index": 1176}
{"en": "This rich habitat supports remarkable biodiversity – or did before the oil companies got there – and more than 30 million local inhabitants, who depend on the local ecosystems for their health and livelihoods.", "zh": "这片肥沃富饶的栖息地支撑着非凡的生物多样性 — — 或者说在石油公司来破坏之前是这样的 — — 而当地3000多万居民的健康和生计都依赖于该生态系统。", "index": 1177}
{"en": "Twenty years ago, the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources classified the Niger Delta as a region of high biodiversity of marine and coastal flora and fauna – tree species, fish, birds, and mammals, among other forms of life – and therefore rated it as a very high priority for conservation.", "zh": "二十年前，世界自然保护联盟把尼日尔三角洲分类为一个拥有极丰富海洋及沿海动植物多样性的地区 — — 不同树种、鱼类、鸟类和哺乳类与其他形式的生命共处一地 — — 因此将其列为极高的优先保护等级。", "index": 1178}
{"en": "Yet it also noted that the region’s biodiversity was under massive threat, with little or no protection.", "zh": "然而该联盟也指出，由于这个地区极少或未被保护，其生物多样性正处于巨大的威胁之中。", "index": 1179}
{"en": "The global companies operating in the delta have spilled oil and flared natural gas for decades, without regard for the natural environment and the communities impoverished and poisoned by their actions.", "zh": "在尼日尔三角洲经营的跨国石油企业几十年来一直在该地区泄漏石油及燃烧天然气，根本不考虑自然环境和因其行为而变得贫困甚至遭受毒害的人类社区。", "index": 1180}
{"en": "One estimate puts the cumulative spills over the past 50 years at approximately 10 million barrels – twice the size of the BP spill.", "zh": "一份研究估计宣称过去50年中这些公司累积泄漏的石油约为1000万桶 — — 这是英国石油公司漏油量的2倍。", "index": 1181}
{"en": "The data are uncertain: there have been many thousands of spills during this period – often poorly documented and their magnitude hidden or simply unmeasured by either the companies or the government.", "zh": "该数据并不准确：过去的50年中有好几千次石油溢出事故 — — 通常这些事故都未被详细记录，其石油泄漏量常常被掩盖甚至被公司及政府故意忽略。", "index": 1182}
{"en": "Indeed, just as BP was being hit with new criminal penalties, ExxonMobil announced yet another pipeline leak in the Niger Delta.", "zh": "确实，正当英国石油公司遭受新的刑事处罚时，埃克森美孚又通报了一起位于尼日尔三角洲的石油管道泄漏事件。", "index": 1183}
{"en": "The environmental destruction of the delta is part of a larger saga: corrupt companies operating hand in hand with corrupt government officials.", "zh": "三角洲的环境破坏只是一长串事件中的一部分：腐败的公司与腐败的政府官员相互勾结以牟取私利。", "index": 1184}
{"en": "The companies routinely bribe officials to gain oil leases, lie about output, evade taxes, and dodge responsibility for the environmental damage that they cause.", "zh": "公司通常贿赂政府官员以获取石油合同，它们谎报产量，偷税漏税，逃避由其经营活动引起的环境损害的责任。", "index": 1185}
{"en": "Nigerian officials have become fabulously wealthy, owing to decades of payoffs by international companies that have plundered the delta’s natural wealth.", "zh": "由于一直掠夺三角洲自然财富的跨国企业几十年来的贿赂，尼日利亚的政府官员变得惊人的富有。", "index": 1186}
{"en": "Shell, the largest foreign operator in the Niger Delta, has been criticized repeatedly for its egregious practices and its unwillingness to be held to account.", "zh": "壳牌 — — 尼日尔三角洲最大的国外营运商 — — 就屡次因其恶名昭彰的行为及不愿承担责任的态度而遭到外界批评。", "index": 1187}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the local population has remained impoverished and beset by diseases caused by unsafe air, poisoned drinking water, and pollution in the food chain.", "zh": "与此同时，当地居民却一直处于贫困状态，还被由不安全的空气、被污染的饮用水和食物链污染引起的疾病所困扰。", "index": 1188}
{"en": "Local lawlessness has led to gang warfare and persistent illegal tapping into the pipelines to steal oil, leading to further massive oil spills and frequent explosions that kill dozens, including innocent bystanders.", "zh": "当地违法行为已经引起了黑帮火拼以及层出不穷的管道偷油案件，这又进一步导致了大量石油泄漏事故并导致了造成大量人员死亡 — — 包括许多无辜受殃者 — — 的频繁爆炸事件。", "index": 1189}
{"en": "In the colonial era, it was the official purpose of imperial power to extract wealth from the administered territories.", "zh": "在殖民时期，从殖民领地攫取财富是帝国主义的官方意图。", "index": 1190}
{"en": "In the post-colonial period, the methods are better disguised.", "zh": "而在后殖民时期，这种意图有了更好的伪装。", "index": 1191}
{"en": "When oil companies misbehave in Nigeria or elsewhere, they are protected by the power of their home countries.", "zh": "当石油公司在尼日利亚或其他国家恣意妄为时，它们会受到母国政权保护。", "index": 1192}
{"en": "Don’t mess with the companies, they are told by the United States and Europe.", "zh": "美国及欧洲国家警告那些石油原产国：别找石油公司的麻烦。", "index": 1193}
{"en": "Indeed, one of the largest bribes (a reputed $180 million) paid in recent times in Nigeria was by Halliburton, a company tightly intertwined with US political power.", "zh": "确实，尼日利亚近期最大的一笔贿赂（外界普遍估计约1.8亿美元）是由美国哈利伯顿公司支付的，而该公司与美国政界则有着错综复杂的关系。", "index": 1194}
{"en": "(Dick Cheney went from being Halliburton’s CEO to the US vice presidency.)", "zh": "（迪克·切尼就是从哈利伯顿的首席执行官摇身一变成为美国副总统的。 ）", "index": 1195}
{"en": "Last year, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) issued a remarkable report on Ogoniland, a major ethnic homeland in the Niger Delta that has been at the epicenter of conflict between local communities and international oil.", "zh": "去年，联合国环境规划署发布了一份引人注目的奥贡尼兰报告，奥贡尼兰是一个曾经曾处于本地社区与跨国石油企业矛盾中心的尼日尔三角洲主要部族祖居地。", "index": 1196}
{"en": "The report was as scathing as it was scientifically clear.", "zh": "这份报告措辞严厉证据清晰。", "index": 1197}
{"en": "Despite many past promises of a cleanup, Ogoniland remains in environmental agony, impoverished and sickened by the oil industry.", "zh": "尽管过去石油公司作过很多关于清理的承诺，奥贡尼兰依旧处于恶劣的环境状况之下，该地区已经被石油产业榨干了财富而且疾病肆虐。", "index": 1198}
{"en": "UNEP also offered clear and detailed recommendations, including emergency measures to ensure safe drinking water; cleanup activities targeting the mangroves and soils; public-health studies to identify and counteract the consequences of pollution; and a new regulatory framework.", "zh": "联合国环境规划署同时还提供了清晰详细的建议，包括保证安全饮用水的紧急措施；针对红树木和土壤的清除活动；鉴定及消除污染后果的公共健康研究；还有一个新的监管框架。", "index": 1199}
{"en": "The world’s governments have recently agreed to move to a new framework for sustainable development, declaring their intention to adopt Sustainable Development Goals at the Rio+20 Summit in June.", "zh": "世界各国政府在六月的“里约+20峰会”上宣布他们打算采用可持续发展目标，并于近期同意为了可持续发展接受新的监管框架。", "index": 1200}
{"en": "The SDGs offer a critical opportunity for the world to set clear, compelling standards for government and corporate behavior.", "zh": "可持续发展目标为全世界给政府及公司行为设定清晰强制的标准提供了一个关键的机会。", "index": 1201}
{"en": "Many major companies, including in the oil industry, have expressed their readiness to support sustainable development goals.", "zh": "包括石油产业在内的许多大公司都表达了他们支持可持续发展目标的意愿。", "index": 1202}
{"en": "Cleaning up the Niger Delta would provide the strongest possible example of a new age of accountability.", "zh": "清除尼日尔三角洲的石油污染将给新时代的问责制提供一个具备最大实施可能性的例子。", "index": 1203}
{"en": "Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and other major oil companies should step forward and help to fund the necessary cleanup, ushering in a new era of responsibility.", "zh": "壳牌、雪弗龙、埃克森美孚以及其他石油大公司应该站出来资助必要的石油污染清理，开创一个负责任的新时代。", "index": 1204}
{"en": "The Nigerian government’s own accountability is on the line as well.", "zh": "尼日利亚政府本身也有不可推卸的责任。", "index": 1205}
{"en": "It is heartening that several Nigerian senators have recently been in the forefront of efforts to strengthen the rule of law in the oil sector.", "zh": "令人鼓舞的是已经有几位尼日利亚参议员最近一直站在致力加强石油产业法治化的最前沿。", "index": 1206}
{"en": "The cleanup of the Niger Delta provides an ideal opportunity for Nigeria, the oil industry, and the international community to show convincingly that a new age has dawned.", "zh": "尼日尔三角洲的石油清理行动给尼日利亚、石油产业以及国际社会提供了一个理想的机会来向世界昭示 — — 一个新的时代已经到来了。", "index": 1207}
{"en": "From now on, sustainable development must not be a mere slogan, but rather an operational approach to global governance and well-being on a strained and crowded planet.", "zh": "从现在开始，可持续发展不能纯粹只是一个口号，而应该是针对全球治理及在这个浮躁拥挤的星球上谋求幸福的运作方法。", "index": 1208}
{"en": "Saving Capitalism from Economics 101", "zh": "让资本主义免遭“经济学入门”课的荼毒", "index": 1209}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – All across the United States, students are settling into college – and coming to grips with “Econ 101.”", "zh": "发自华盛顿特区 — — 在全美各地，新生们正在进入大学 — — 并开始接触“经济学入门”课程。", "index": 1210}
{"en": "This introductory course is typically taught with a broadly reassuring message: if markets are allowed to work, good outcomes – such as productivity growth, increasing wages, and generally shared prosperity – will surely follow.", "zh": "这门入门课程通常会教授一个在很大程度上令人放心的信息：如果允许市场发挥作用，就必然会获得良好的结果 — — 如生产力增长、工资增长以及大众普遍共享的繁荣。", "index": 1211}
{"en": "Unfortunately, as my co-author James Kwak points out in his recent book, Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality, Econ 101 is so far from being the whole story that it could actually be considered misleading – at least as a guide to sensible policymaking.", "zh": "不幸的是，正如我某本著作的合著者詹姆斯·郭（James Kwak）在其新书《经济学主义：坏经济学和不平等的兴起》中所指出的那样 ， “ 经济学入门”远远无法涵盖这门学科的所有内容，甚至如果拿来指导明智政策制定的话，实际上可以被认为是存在误导性的。", "index": 1212}
{"en": "Markets can be good, but they are also profoundly susceptible to abusive practices, including by prominent private-sector people.", "zh": "市场有可能是好的，但它们也极易受到各类滥用行为的影响 — — 有些甚至出自知名私营部门从业者之手。", "index": 1213}
{"en": "This is not a theoretical concern; it is central to our current policy debates, including important new US legislation that has just been put forward.", "zh": "这不是理论上的问题；它是我们当前政策辩论的核心，包括刚刚提出的重要新立法法案​​。", "index": 1214}
{"en": "One core problem is that market incentives reward self-interested private behavior, without accounting for social benefits or costs.", "zh": "一个核心问题是市场激励机制会奖励那些自利的个人行为，而不考虑社会的利益或成本。", "index": 1215}
{"en": "We generally overlook our actions’ spillover effects on others, or “externalities.”", "zh": "我们通常忽略了自身行为对他人的溢出效应或“外部性 ” 。", "index": 1216}
{"en": "To be fair, Econ 101 textbooks do discuss this issue in some contexts, such as pollution, and it is widely accepted that environmental damage needs to be regulated if we are to have clean air, clean water, and limits on other pollutants.", "zh": "“初级经济学”教科书虽然确实在某些事件背景下（例如污染）讨论过这一问题，而人们也普遍同意：如果想拥有洁净空气、洁净的水以及减少其他污染物，就需要对破坏环境行为加以规管。", "index": 1217}
{"en": "Unfortunately, “widely accepted” does not include by President Donald Trump’s administration, which is busy rolling back environmental protections across a broad range of activities.", "zh": "不幸的是，特朗普总统的政府并不在这一“普遍同意”的行列中，因为该政府正忙于在一系列活动中废止环保措施。", "index": 1218}
{"en": "The New York Times counts 76 rollbacks in progress.", "zh": "《纽约时报》报道说目前有76个废止程序正在进行中。", "index": 1219}
{"en": "The thinking behind this policy is straight out of the first few weeks of Econ 101: get out of the way of the market.", "zh": "而这一政策背后的理念直接来自“经济学入门”的带头几个章节：别去打扰市场。", "index": 1220}
{"en": "As a result, there is a lot more pollution – including more emission of greenhouse gases – in America’s future.", "zh": "在此之下美国只会迎来更严重的污染 — — 包括更多的温室气体排放。", "index": 1221}
{"en": "There is also an even deeper problem.", "zh": "这里还存在一个更深层次的问题。", "index": 1222}
{"en": "There is a general presumption in Econ 101 that firms should maximize profits, and that this is best for their shareholders and for society.", "zh": "“经济学入门”中有一个普遍的假设，即企业应该最大化其利润，而这对其股东和社会也是最有利的。", "index": 1223}
{"en": "But this notion of “firms” is just a shorthand for people organized in a particular form. People, not firms, make decisions.", "zh": "但是这一“企业”的概念只是以特定形式组织起来的人群的简称，是人 — — 而不是企业 — — 在做决定。", "index": 1224}
{"en": "To understand the nature and impact of these decisions, we need to look closely at the incentives of firms’ senior managers and board members.", "zh": "要了解这些决策的性质和影响，我们需要密切关注公司高管和董事会成员的激励机制。", "index": 1225}
{"en": "Since the 1970s, the people who run firms have become much more focused on increasing their compensation, through bonuses, stock options, and the like.", "zh": "自1970年代以来，那些运营企业的人越来越着眼于通过奖金，股票期权等形式来增加薪酬。", "index": 1226}
{"en": "There has been a significant rise in the value of shares, most of which are owned by the wealthiest 10% of Americans.", "zh": "股票价值虽然大幅增长，但其中大部分都在最富有的那10％美国人手里。", "index": 1227}
{"en": "At the same time, median wages have barely increased – a dramatic change from the immediate post-World War II period, when productivity increases led to steady wage gains.", "zh": "与此同时，工资中位数却几乎没有增加 — — 这跟与第二次世界大战后那段时期大相径庭，那时生产率不断提高，令工资得以稳步增长。", "index": 1228}
{"en": "Today, it is top managers and members of boards of directors in whose interest firms are run.", "zh": "到如今，企业是为高层管理人员和董事会成员利益服务的。", "index": 1229}
{"en": "Investors sometimes get a good ride, though there are plenty of instances where insiders take excessive advantage by awarding themselves overly generous compensation, taking on excessive risk, or engaging in other, more devious practices.", "zh": "投资者有时会获得不错的收益，尽管有很多情况下都是内部人员通过为自己开出过分慷慨的报酬，执行高风险操作或实施其他更为欺诈性的做法来攫取超出本分的好处。", "index": 1230}
{"en": "The idea that compensation committees insist on genuinely impressive performance, relative to relevant benchmarks, has become risible.", "zh": "那种薪酬委员会只有在高管们在某些指标参照下拿出真正高业绩表现时才会开出相应薪资的想法已经近乎可笑了。", "index": 1231}
{"en": "This is the context in which Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is proposing a new Accountable Capitalism Act.", "zh": "这也是马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）提出新的《问责资本主义法案》的背景。", "index": 1232}
{"en": "Very large companies would need to acquire a federal charter (as opposed to the current state charter arrangements), which would come with specific obligations – in particular, the need to consider the interests of all corporate stakeholders, including workers.", "zh": "那些超大型企业需要获得联邦许可（而不是现行的州许可方案 ） ， 而其中会包含具体的义务 — — 特别是要考虑包括工人在内的所有公司利益相关者的利益。", "index": 1233}
{"en": "To make this more meaningful and generally improve transparency, ordinary (non-management) employees should get some representation on the board of directors.", "zh": "为了使这一举措更具意义且提高总体透明度，普通（非管理层）员工应该在董事会中获得一些代表权。", "index": 1234}
{"en": "This type of arrangement works well in Germany, a country where workers continue to be treated with respect.", "zh": "这一方案在德国行之有效，而德国也是一个劳动者长期得到尊重的国家。", "index": 1235}
{"en": "Warren also supports a proposal that originated from John Bogle, founder of Vanguard (a mutual fund company), that would require super-majority support from shareholders and directors before a large company could engage in political expenditures.", "zh": "沃伦还支持一项源自于Vanguard（一家共同基金公司）创始人约翰·博格尔（John Bogle）的提案，该提案要求大型企业只有在获得股东和董事的压倒多数支持后才能有政治方面的花费。", "index": 1236}
{"en": "The underlying legal theory behind these proposals is sound, and it is well articulated in a letter signed by Robert Hockett of Cornell Law School and other distinguished figures.", "zh": "这些提案背后的基本法律理论是合理的，康奈尔大学法学院教授罗伯特·霍克特（Robert Hockett）和其他杰出人士联署的一封信中也清楚地阐述了这一点。", "index": 1237}
{"en": "Large corporations are granted significant rights, including limited liability for individual executives, and facilitate the pooling of large amounts of capital from people who do not necessarily know one another (or the promoters of the company).", "zh": "大企业被授予了极大的权利，包括个人高管的有限责任，并从一群不一定了解彼此（或企业发起人）的人处汇集了大量资金。", "index": 1238}
{"en": "Originally, the purpose was to enable the private sector to carry out large-scale risky investments that had broader potential impact, such as building canals and railroads.", "zh": "此举最初的目的是使私营部门能够进行具备更广泛潜在影响的大规模风险投资，例如修建运河和铁路。", "index": 1239}
{"en": "The US supposedly constrains the activities of large corporations, with the Department of Justice taking action if companies acquire monopoly power or otherwise behave in an anti-competitive manner.", "zh": "美国理论上已经限制了大企业的活动，比如一旦企业获得垄断权力或以反竞争的方式行事，司法部就会采取行动。", "index": 1240}
{"en": "Realistically, the enforcement of antitrust law has slipped a long way in recent years, under both Republican and Democratic administrations.", "zh": "实际上，近年来无论是在共和党还是民主党政府的治理下，反托拉斯法的执行已经大大减少。", "index": 1241}
{"en": "Warren is proposing a much broader rethink.", "zh": "沃伦提出了一个更广泛的反思。", "index": 1242}
{"en": "Large corporations can still do well, but they need to be held accountable in a much more transparent way.", "zh": "大企业仍然可以做出贡献，但它们需要以更加透明的方式对自身行为负责。", "index": 1243}
{"en": "Incentives for executives would be adjusted, and running these companies would no longer be so much about lining their own pockets.", "zh": "对高级管理人员的激励措施将有所调整，而运营这些企业将不再仅限于填满自己的口袋。", "index": 1244}
{"en": "Workers would no longer be treated so badly, and more people might even start to believe again in the American Dream of prosperity for all.", "zh": "工人们将不再受到如此差劲的待遇，而更多的人甚至可能开始相信可以让所有人共同繁荣的美国梦。", "index": 1245}
{"en": "The legitimacy of capitalism – private ownership and reliance on market mechanisms – would be greatly strengthened under the Accountable Capitalism Act.", "zh": "在《问责资本主义法案》之下，资本主义的合法性 — — 私有制以及对市场机制的依赖 — — 将大大加强。", "index": 1246}
{"en": "So, yes, like it or not, this will be on the final exam.", "zh": "因此不管人们喜欢与否，这都将是一场期末考试。", "index": 1247}
{"en": "A Centerless Euro Cannot Hold", "zh": "缺少集中的欧元无法生存", "index": 1248}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – With youth unemployment touching 50% in eurozone countries such as Spain and Greece, is a generation being sacrificed for the sake of a single currency that encompasses too diverse a group of countries to be sustainable?", "zh": "美国剑桥—在西班牙和希腊等欧元区国家，年轻人失业率达到了50 % ， 这可以说是为了在覆盖彼此差异太大而根本不可能持续的多国实行单一货币而牺牲了一代人吗？", "index": 1249}
{"en": "If so, does enlarging the euro’s membership really serve Europe’s apparent goal of maximizing economic integration without necessarily achieving full political union?", "zh": "如果答案是肯定的，扩大欧元区成员国范围真的有助于欧洲达到最大化经济一体化而又不必形成政治上的完全统一这一众人皆知的目标吗？", "index": 1250}
{"en": "The good news is that economic research does have a few things to say about whether Europe should have a single currency.", "zh": "好消息是，经济研究确实对欧洲是否应该使用单一货币这一问题形成了一些成果。", "index": 1251}
{"en": "The bad news is that it has become increasingly clear that, at least for large countries, currency areas will be highly unstable unless they follow national borders.", "zh": "坏消息是，越来越明显的是，至少对于大国，货币区是非常不稳定的，除非其边界和国境线相同。", "index": 1252}
{"en": "At a minimum, currency unions require a confederation with far more centralized power over taxation and other policies than European leaders envision for the eurozone.", "zh": "不管怎样，货币联盟至少需要是一个邦联，拥有比欧洲领导人的欧元区愿景远为集中的税收和其他政策权力。", "index": 1253}
{"en": "What of Nobel Prize winner Robert Mundell’s famous 1961 conjecture that national and currency borders need not significantly overlap?", "zh": "那么，如何看待诺贝尔奖获得者蒙代尔1961年的著名预言呢？ 蒙代尔说，国境线和货币边界并不需要大致重合。", "index": 1254}
{"en": "In his provocative American Economic Review paper “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas,” Mundell argued that as long as workers could move within a currency region to where the jobs were, the region could afford to forgo the equilibrating mechanism of exchange-rate adjustment.", "zh": "在他发表于《美国经济评论 》 （ American Economic Review）的雄文《最优货币区理论 》 （ A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas）中，蒙代尔指出，只要工人能在货币区内自由流动追逐工作，该货币区就可以形成一个汇率调整的均衡机制。", "index": 1255}
{"en": "He credited another (future) Nobel Prize winner, James Meade, for having recognized the importance of labor mobility in earlier work, but criticized Meade for interpreting the idea too stringently, especially in the context of Europe’s nascent integration.", "zh": "蒙代尔将对劳动流动性的重要性的认识归功于另一位（未来）诺贝尔奖获得者米德，但也指出，米德对这一观点的解释太过严格，特别是在欧洲一体化刚刚出现萌芽的时候。", "index": 1256}
{"en": "Mundell did not emphasize financial crises, but presumably labor mobility is more important today than ever.", "zh": "蒙代尔并未强调金融危机，但他推测劳动流动性在今日要比过去更重要。", "index": 1257}
{"en": "Not surprisingly, workers are leaving the eurozone’s crisis countries, but not necessarily for its stronger northern region.", "zh": "毫不奇怪，工人们正在离开欧元区危机国，但迁移目标并非一定是更坚挺的北欧地区。", "index": 1258}
{"en": "Instead, Portuguese workers are fleeing to booming former colonies such as Brazil and Macau.", "zh": "事实上，葡萄牙工人正在逃向繁荣的昔日殖民地，比如巴西和澳门。", "index": 1259}
{"en": "Irish workers are leaving in droves to Canada, Australia, and the United States.", "zh": "爱尔兰工人正在迁往加拿大、澳大利亚和美国。", "index": 1260}
{"en": "Spanish workers are streaming into Romania, which until recently had been a major source of agricultural labor in Spain.", "zh": "西班牙工人正在涌向罗马尼亚，而后者以前一直是西班牙农业劳动力的主要来源。", "index": 1261}
{"en": "Still, if intra-eurozone mobility were anything like Mundell’s ideal, today we would not be seeing 25% unemployment in Spain while Germany’s unemployment rate is below 7%.", "zh": "尽管如此，如果欧元区内部流动性能够与蒙代尔的理想状况略有相似，那么如今我们就不会看到西班牙失业率高达25%而德国失业率低至不到7%的情况。", "index": 1262}
{"en": "Later writers came to recognize that there are other essential criteria for a successful currency union, which are difficult to achieve without deep political integration.", "zh": "后来的研究者开始认识到成功的货币联盟还���要其他关键要素，而这些要素在没有深度政治一体化的情况下很难实现。", "index": 1263}
{"en": "Peter Kenen argued in the late 1960’s that without exchange-rate movements as a shock absorber, a currency union requires fiscal transfers as a way to share risk.", "zh": "柯南（Peter Kenen）在20世纪60年代末指出，如果没有汇率变动作为冲击吸收器，货币联盟就需要财政转移来作为分担风险的办法。", "index": 1264}
{"en": "For a normal country, the national income-tax system constitutes a huge automatic stabilizer across regions.", "zh": "在平常国家，国民所得税嫡系便是一个巨型地区级自动稳定器。", "index": 1265}
{"en": "In the US, when oil prices go up, incomes in Texas and Montana rise, which means that these states then contribute more tax revenue to the federal budget, thereby helping out the rest of the country.", "zh": "在美国，当油价上涨时，德克萨斯州和蒙大拿州的收入会上升，这意味着该两州将向联邦预算贡献更多的税收收入，从而帮助美国的其余地区走出困境。", "index": 1266}
{"en": "Europe, of course, has no significant centralized tax authority, so this key automatic stabilizer is essentially absent.", "zh": "当然，欧洲不存在大型中央税收当局，因此这一重要自动稳定器也就不存在了。", "index": 1267}
{"en": "Some European academics tried to argue that there was no need for US-like fiscal transfers, because any desired degree of risk sharing can, in theory, be achieved through financial markets.", "zh": "一些欧洲学者试图论证像美国那样的财政转移并不是必须的，因为从理论上说，不管你想要多大程度的风险共担，都可以通过金融市场达到。", "index": 1268}
{"en": "This claim was hugely misguided.", "zh": "这一论断大错特错。", "index": 1269}
{"en": "Financial markets can be fragile, and they provide little capacity for sharing risk related to labor income, which constitutes the largest part of income in any advanced economy.", "zh": "金融市场可能非常脆弱，所提供的分担劳动收入相关风险能力几乎为零，而劳动收入是发达国家收入的最大来源。", "index": 1270}
{"en": "Kenen was mainly concerned with short-term transfers to smooth out cyclical bumpiness.", "zh": "柯南主要关心的是短期转移可以平滑周期性起伏。", "index": 1271}
{"en": "But, in a currency union with huge differences in income and development levels, the short term can stretch out for a very long time.", "zh": "但是，在一个收入和发展水平差异巨大的货币联盟中 ， “ 短期”所经历的时间可能非常长。", "index": 1272}
{"en": "Many Germans today rightly feel that any system of fiscal transfers will morph into a permanent feeding tube, much the way that northern Italy has been propping up southern Italy for the last century.", "zh": "许多德国人如今正确地感受到，任何财政转移系统都有可能兑变为持久的饲管，正如上个世纪意大利北部对意大利南部的不断输血。", "index": 1273}
{"en": "Indeed, more than 20 years on, Western Germans still see no end in sight for the bills from German unification.", "zh": "事实上，德国统一20多年来，西德仍然看不到统一的成本什么时候才是个头。", "index": 1274}
{"en": "Later, Maurice Obstfeld pointed out that, in addition to fiscal transfers, a currency union needs clearly defined rules for the lender of last resort.", "zh": "再后来，奥布斯菲尔德（Maurice Obstfeld）指出，除了财政转移，货币联盟还需要有明确定义的最后贷款人规则。", "index": 1275}
{"en": "Otherwise, bank runs and debt panics will be rampant.", "zh": "否则的话，银行挤兑和债务恐慌将会泛滥。", "index": 1276}
{"en": "Obstfeld had in mind a bailout mechanism for banks, but it is now abundantly clear that one also needs a lender of last resort and a bankruptcy mechanism for states and municipalities.", "zh": "奥布斯菲尔德构想了一个银行救助机制，但现在，显而易见的是，国家和自治地区也需要最后贷款人和破产机制。", "index": 1277}
{"en": "A logical corollary of the criteria set forth by Kenen and Obstfeld, and even of Mundell’s labor-mobility criterion, is that currency unions cannot survive without political legitimacy, most likely involving region-wide popular elections.", "zh": "从柯南和奥布斯菲尔德所提出的前提出发，甚至即使从蒙代尔的劳动流动性前提看，一个符合逻辑的推论是，货币联盟不可能在没有政治合法性 — — 最有可能的形式是地区级的大选 — — 的前提下生存。", "index": 1278}
{"en": "Europe’s leaders cannot carry out large transfers across countries indefinitely without a coherent European political framework.", "zh": "没有凝聚性的欧洲政治框架，欧洲领导人就不可能无限度地在各国间实现大规模转移。", "index": 1279}
{"en": "European policymakers today often complain that, were it not for the US financial crisis, the eurozone would be doing just fine.", "zh": "如今，欧洲决策者经常抱怨说，要不是美国金融危机，欧元区根本不会遭殃。", "index": 1280}
{"en": "Perhaps they are right.", "zh": "也许这么说并不错。", "index": 1281}
{"en": "But any financial system must be able to withstand shocks, including big ones.", "zh": "但金融体系必须能够抵御冲击，即使是剧烈冲击。", "index": 1282}
{"en": "Europe may never be an “optimum” currency area by any standard.", "zh": "欧洲也许从来都不是一个“最优”货币区，不管从什么角度看都是如此。", "index": 1283}
{"en": "But, without further profound political and economic integration – which may not end up including all current eurozone members – the euro may not make it even to the end of this decade.", "zh": "但是，如果没有更加深远的政治和经济一体化 — — 也许最终无法将所有当前欧元区成员国纳入进来 — — 可能连这个十年都撑不过。", "index": 1284}
{"en": "Achieving a “Europe of Results”", "zh": "建设“以成果为导向的欧洲”", "index": 1285}
{"en": "BRUSSELS – The tsunami that has swept across financial markets is a global catastrophe.", "zh": "发自布鲁塞尔 — — 席卷全球的金融海啸无疑是场巨大的灾难。", "index": 1286}
{"en": "If handled correctly, however, the crisis may yet raise the esteem of the European Union and its institutions.", "zh": "但如果处理得当的话，这场危机反而能为欧盟及其下属机构赢来人们的重视与敬重。", "index": 1287}
{"en": "The EU’s legitimacy problem has two different aspects: apathy, leading to a low turnout in the European parliamentary elections, and outright euro-skepticism.", "zh": "毫无疑问，欧盟一直被其和合法性问题困扰着，而此问题则来自两方面：首先是人们的漠视，这导致了欧洲议会选举低下的投票率，还有就是那些彻底反对欧盟和欧元的怀疑论调。", "index": 1288}
{"en": "The voter-turnout problem partly reflects frustration about the present state of the EU, and also people’s impression that they can exert little influence by voting one way or the other.", "zh": "低投票率在某个侧面体现了民众对欧盟目前状况的挫折感，在他们看来无论选谁，自己这一票都微不足道。", "index": 1289}
{"en": "Euro-skepticism, on the other hand, and the looming threat of anti-European populism, is directly linked to the idea that the EU is not merely incapable of offering a solution to the crisis, but in fact is part of the problem.", "zh": "而在另一方面，欧盟怀疑论以及反欧盟民粹主义的兴起，则直接与另一种想法有关：那就是欧盟非但不能为危机提供解决方案，连其本身都是问题的始作俑者。", "index": 1290}
{"en": "So, although the EU represents our best hope of ensuring that Europe is internationally competitive in today’s increasingly difficult environment, it is actually being blamed for globalization.", "zh": "因此即便欧盟体现了我们为确保欧洲在日渐艰难的时势中保持竞争力的良好愿望，它依然受到“为危机全球化推波助澜”的指责。", "index": 1291}
{"en": "Many people confuse these two aspects of the EU’s legitimacy problem, and believe that somehow turnout in European elections can be increased by pointing out to people how good and important the EU is.", "zh": "许多人混淆了欧盟合法性的这两方面问题，并坚信只要能劝服民众说欧盟有多好、有多重要，就能让欧洲议会选举投票率有所提升。", "index": 1292}
{"en": "But in most cases, this is not possible.", "zh": "但在绝大多数情况下，这条路根本没行不通。", "index": 1293}
{"en": "At first sight, the easiest answer to the problem of low voter turnout is to give more power to the European Parliament.", "zh": "照“拍脑袋”简单一想的方法，提高投票率的最简单方法就是赋予欧洲议会更多的权力。", "index": 1294}
{"en": "But if this was the solution, then we would not have had steadily declining turnouts since the high point of 63%, at the first elections to the European Parliament in 1979. After all, since then the EP’s influence and powers of joint decision-making have grown constantly.", "zh": "但如果这也算解决方案的话，那就难以解释为什么欧洲议会的影响力和联合决策权在1979年第一次选举之后不断扩大，但投票率却在那次选举的63%高点上逐步下降的矛盾现实了。", "index": 1295}
{"en": "The trouble is that, EP elections must be “about” something if voters are to be interested, which means they must involve a real choice.", "zh": "问题在于，欧洲议会选举如果要吸引选民的话，那么它必须“言之有物 ” ， 让选民意识到自己确实在作出一个“实打实”的选择。", "index": 1296}
{"en": "And a real choice requires Europe-wide election campaigns by all parties. This would also involve making the choice of the European Commission’s president dependent on the outcome of the EP elections.", "zh": "而这样一个“实打实”的选择要求有全欧洲所有党派的竞选活动来共同组成，其中还包括让选民通过决定欧洲议会选举的结果来选定谁是欧盟委员会主席。", "index": 1297}
{"en": "But, in fact, both of these conditions have already been met; in 2004, Portuguese Prime Minister José Manuel Durão Barroso was appointed President of the Commission because he came from the political organization with the strongest election result, the European People’s Party.", "zh": "但其实上述这些条件其实早就达到了：在2004年，葡萄牙首相何塞·曼努埃尔·杜朗·巴罗佐就因其背后的政治组织“欧洲人民党团”在欧洲议会竞选中风头最劲而被任命为欧盟委员会主席。", "index": 1298}
{"en": "And this year’s elections saw a more intensive presence of party organizations at European level than ever before.", "zh": "而今年欧洲议会选举中此类欧洲层面上的党团势力也比以往更加集中地出现在人们眼前。", "index": 1299}
{"en": "Instead, I believe that the most important way to reawaken voters’ interest in European elections will be to open up the election of the Commission’s President to them, and create a genuinely Europe-wide political debate during the next election campaign.", "zh": "因此我相信，要唤起选民热情，最重要手段就是让他们直接选举欧盟委员会主席，还必须在下次欧洲议会竞选活动中，真正掀起一场覆盖全欧洲的政治大辩论。", "index": 1300}
{"en": "The Euro-skepticism problem can be tackled only if the Union itself starts to perform better, and is seen to be doing so.", "zh": "而欧洲怀疑论的冰释，只能在欧盟开始表现得更好，并似乎能一直保持努力进步之后才能达到。", "index": 1301}
{"en": "That is why in the aftermath of the failed referenda four years ago in France and the Netherlands on the Constitutional treaty, the Commission tried to emphasize the idea of a “Europe of Results” that would seek to convince citizens of its worth through concrete achievements.", "zh": "这也是为什么在对4年前欧盟宪法公投在法国和荷兰惨遭滑铁卢的事实进行了检讨之后，欧盟委员会就开始强调“以成果为导向的欧洲”这一理念，并试图用看得见摸得着的政绩去让人们明白欧盟的价值。", "index": 1302}
{"en": "Given the gravity of the economic crisis, the time has come for the EU to demonstrate its strengths whenever possible.", "zh": "考虑到经济危机的巨大影响力，是时候让欧盟尽可能地展现自己的力量了。", "index": 1303}
{"en": "The aim must be not only to win back the hearts of Europeans who have become skeptical, but also to convince them that the Union is indispensable to meeting the challenges Europeans face.", "zh": "而这些努力的目标不仅是赢回那些满腹狐疑的欧洲人的心，更要让他们确信：欧盟这个组织在应对当前挑战方面是不可或缺的。", "index": 1304}
{"en": "Europe’s citizens understand that the relatively small nation-states that make up the EU are no longer able to face these enormous challenges on their own.", "zh": "欧洲的公民们已经意识到，欧盟内部那些相对较小的国家早已无力独自应对这些巨大挑战。", "index": 1305}
{"en": "In Ireland, last autumn’s financial crisis provoked a turnaround in public opinion about the EU, and even in Iceland, although it lies on the periphery of our continent, membership of the EU and the euro have become a priority.", "zh": "在爱尔兰，去年夏天的金融危机让人们对欧盟的态度发生了180度的转向，甚至连一向游离于欧洲大陆之外的冰岛，欧盟成员国资格和欧元也被放在了首位。", "index": 1306}
{"en": "European countries have become so interconnected that isolated national measures on issues like financial-market regulation are hopeless.", "zh": "欧洲国家的利益是如此盘根错节地交织在一起，以至于那些试图用孤立的国家政策来应对金融市场规管问题的手段都变得一无是处。", "index": 1307}
{"en": "A changing world in which new powers like China and India play an increasingly important role will not wait for Europe to make up its mind.", "zh": "世界正在变化，中国和印度这类新兴强权正日渐扮演更重要的角色，它们可等不及欧洲去打自己的小算盘。", "index": 1308}
{"en": "The EU must instead show leadership through its efforts to solve the world’s current problems.", "zh": "因此欧盟必须通过解决当今世界问题的一系列努力来显示其领导地位。", "index": 1309}
{"en": "As for the European People’s Party, for us the economy is not an end in itself but should serve the people.", "zh": "而对于我所属的欧洲人民党团来说，经济体系的存在目的不是为自身谋利，而是服务大众。", "index": 1310}
{"en": "The economic crisis was caused by shortsightedness and a lack of control in the global financial system. Now we must redefine the role of regulators in financial markets and in the wider economy, for we cannot let the financial sector walk off with the profits and leave taxpayers bearing the losses.", "zh": "目前这场经济危机源自于目光短浅的行为以及全球金融系统的管制不力，因此我们必须重新定义在金融市场和更宏观经济中规管者所需扮演的角色，因为我们不能让金融部门一面把利润塞满自己的口袋，另一面却叫纳税人来承担损失。", "index": 1311}
{"en": "That doesn’t mean that we are advocating a move to socialism; we want better and smarter regulation, not regulation for its own sake.", "zh": "这并不意味着我们鼓吹社会主义；监管必须更好和更明智，而不是为监管而监管。", "index": 1312}
{"en": "We see five keys to recovery:", "zh": "而下面五点则是经济复原的关键：", "index": 1313}
{"en": "A “Europe of Results” is achievable.", "zh": "一个“以成果为导向的欧洲”是可以实现的。", "index": 1314}
{"en": "It can strengthen the EU’s legitimacy, though, only if policy recommendations such as these, and the successes that result from implementing them, are communicated clearly and effectively to the general public.", "zh": "只要我们能向公众清晰有效地说明上述政策建议，并在实际执行中取得成功，那么欧盟合法性的增强，就必然会得以实现。", "index": 1315}
{"en": "The Education Roadmap to 2030", "zh": "2030年教育路线图", "index": 1316}
{"en": "LONDON – When I visited the Zaatari refugee camp in Jordan earlier this year, I met with children who told me what education means to them.", "zh": "伦敦—今年早些时候，我访问了位于约旦的扎塔里（Zaatari）难民营。 我遇见了一些儿童，他们告诉我教育对他们意味着什么。", "index": 1317}
{"en": "For Syrian youths who have been forced from their homes and have lost everything, education is about more than qualifications or test scores; it embodies their hope for the future.", "zh": "对被迫离开家园、失去一切的叙利亚年轻人来说，教育的意义远不止合格或分数；而是寄托着对未来的希望。", "index": 1318}
{"en": "Children like those in Zaatari, and millions of others around the world, are central to the work of the International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity, which I joined last September.", "zh": "扎塔里难民营以及全世界的数百万儿童是全球教育机会融资国际委员会（International Commission on Financing Global Education Opportunity）工作的核心。", "index": 1319}
{"en": "This commission is committed to the fourth United Nations Sustainable Development Goal, which aims, by 2030, to “ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”", "zh": "我在去年9月加入了该委员会，它致力于联合国可持续发展目标中的第四项，即到2030年“确保包容和平等的高质量教育并推动全人类的终身学习机会。 ”", "index": 1320}
{"en": "This goal is still a distant prospect for far too many children.", "zh": "对于太多的儿童而言，这个目标仍然遥不可及。", "index": 1321}
{"en": "With so many development issues demanding our attention, policymakers should bear in mind that education is not just a good in itself; it is also a catalyst for many other development gains.", "zh": "有如此多的发展问题需要我们关注，决策者应该时刻铭记，教育不但本身是一种好东西（good ） ； 而且也是其他众多发展收益的催化剂。", "index": 1322}
{"en": "As the old African proverb goes, if you educate a girl, you educate an entire nation.", "zh": "非洲古谚有云，教育女孩等于教育整个国家。", "index": 1323}
{"en": "Ensuring access to quality education for children, especially girls, will lead to fewer child marriages and less child labor and exploitation.", "zh": "确保儿童特别是女孩获得高质量教育能减少童婚、童工和剥削。", "index": 1324}
{"en": "And education has long-term societal benefits: aside from increased political engagement, educated children contribute intellectual capital and pursue entrepreneurial opportunities when they grow up, boosting economic growth.", "zh": "教育也具有长期收益：除了增加政治参与，受过教育的儿童能带来智力资本并能在长大后追求创业机会，从而提振经济增长。", "index": 1325}
{"en": "Tackling the education challenge needs to start from two principles embedded in the goal.", "zh": "克服教育挑战必须从联合国可持续发展目标的两大原则开始。", "index": 1326}
{"en": "First, “for all” means that we must focus on the children who have been left behind.", "zh": "首先 ， “ 全人类”意味着我们必须关注落后的儿童。", "index": 1327}
{"en": "Millions of children are out of school or are receiving a substandard education because of who they are or where they live.", "zh": "数百万儿童因为出身家庭或地区而辍学或只能得到劣等教育。", "index": 1328}
{"en": "According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, refugee children are five times more likely to be out of school than other children in the countries to which they’ve been displaced.", "zh": "据联合国难民高级委员，难民儿童辍学的可能性比收留国儿童高五倍。", "index": 1329}
{"en": "And in all but two African countries, girls remain less likely than boys to complete a primary education.", "zh": "只有两个非洲国家，女孩完成小学教育的可能性不低于男孩。", "index": 1330}
{"en": "Getting these children into school will require new approaches that directly address their exclusion and make schooling genuinely accessible and relevant.", "zh": "让这些儿童上学需要直指他们被排斥的问题、让学校真正得到开放和重要的新方针。", "index": 1331}
{"en": "Second, “quality”: Education must be effective, so that children actually learn.", "zh": "其次是“高质量 ” ： 教育必须是有效的，从而让儿童真正得到学习。", "index": 1332}
{"en": "For the 61 million children who are out of primary school, formal education is beyond reach.", "zh": "对6,100万无法上小学的儿童来说，正规教育遥不可及。", "index": 1333}
{"en": "But, just as urgently, more than one-third of children of primary-school age – 250 million – are not learning the basics, according to the UNESCO Education for All Global Monitoring Report.", "zh": "但是，同样紧迫的是，据联合国教科文组织全民教育全球检测报告，有超过三分之一的小学适龄儿童 — — 2.5亿人 — — 没有学到基础知识。", "index": 1334}
{"en": "Half of these children have been in school for at least four years.", "zh": "这些儿童中有一半已经上了至少四年学。", "index": 1335}
{"en": "We must address the barriers to learning, both in the classroom and at home, by improving the quality of teaching and classroom conditions and teaching parents how they can support their children’s education.", "zh": "我们必须改善教学质量和教室条件、教会家长如何支持孩子的教育，以此消除教室和家中的学习壁垒。", "index": 1336}
{"en": "Upholding these two principles will require increased investment.", "zh": "坚守这两大原则需要增加投入。", "index": 1337}
{"en": "Last year, UNESCO calculated that governments must double education spending as a share of national income to achieve the 2030 goals.", "zh": "去年，联合国教科文组织估算政府必须将教育支出占国民收入的比重提高一倍才能完成2030年目标。", "index": 1338}
{"en": "This will require increased revenue from taxation and stronger efforts to collect what’s owed.", "zh": "这需要增加来自税收的收入、加强查漏补缺。", "index": 1339}
{"en": "Donors also need to live up to their aid commitments and target aid more effectively.", "zh": "出资国也需要兑现援助承诺，加强援助的定向性。", "index": 1340}
{"en": "For example, less than one-third of education aid goes to Africa, even though the region accounts for almost two-thirds of out-of-school children.", "zh": "比如，只有不到三分之一的教育援助流向了非洲，而那里的辍学儿童数量占全球的近三分之二。", "index": 1341}
{"en": "Moreover, at the moment, education budgets are often regressive, with almost half of spending in the poorest countries allocated to the most educated 10% of the population.", "zh": "此外，目前教育预算常常呈现出累退特征，最贫穷国家的近一半支出流向了受教育程度最高的10%人口。", "index": 1342}
{"en": "Fixing education investment requires action in two key areas.", "zh": "增加教育投入需要在两大关键领域采取行动。", "index": 1343}
{"en": "First, we need equitable financing, with more investment in early childhood care and development, where there is the biggest potential for returns.", "zh": "首先，我们需要公平的融资，更多地投入早期看护和发展，这是回报潜力最大的领域。", "index": 1344}
{"en": "Budgets must be focused on the most excluded children, and primary education must be free at the point of use, so that every child can learn.", "zh": "预算必须着重关注最受排斥的儿童，小学教育必须免费，以使人人都能上学。", "index": 1345}
{"en": "We also urgently need more transparency and accountability, so that budgets are visible and communities have a say in school governance.", "zh": "我们急需更多的透明度和问责，以使预算可见、社会能对学校治理问题发出声音。", "index": 1346}
{"en": "Second, we need to strengthen domestic education systems so that governments see themselves as the guarantor of accessible, quality schools for their citizens, rather than abdicating that role to outside development agencies.", "zh": "其次，我们需要强化国内教育体系，以使政府自视为为公民提供开放的高质量学校的保证者，而不是自甘堕落为外部发展机构。", "index": 1347}
{"en": "In particular, we should push for partnerships between government and business to boost domestic resources for education, and eliminate illicit capital flows that deprive governments of the means to fund it, such as tax evasion and money laundering across national borders.", "zh": "特别是，我们应该推动政府和企业的合作以提振国内教育资源，清除阻碍政府融资途径的非法资本流，如逃税和跨境洗钱。", "index": 1348}
{"en": "With these priorities in mind, the education commission will deliver its recommendations at the UN General Assembly on September 18, when the Secretary-General will receive and act on them.", "zh": "带着这些重点，教育委员会将在9月18日的联合国大会上发布它的建议，联合国秘书长将得到这些建议并据此行动。", "index": 1349}
{"en": "The Education Commission will have succeeded if we are able to leverage the funding and political will to ensure that every child learns, regardless of their income, location, or social status.", "zh": "如果我们能够利用资金和政治意愿保证每个儿童，不论其收入、所在地或社会地位，都能学习，教育委员会就取得了成功。", "index": 1350}
{"en": "Our work will not be complete until that happens.", "zh": "到了这一步，我们的工作才能宣告完成。", "index": 1351}
{"en": "Sustaining Progress in Transition Countries", "zh": "保持转型国家的进步", "index": 1352}
{"en": "NEW YORK – In the World Bank’s most recent “Doing Business” report, half of the Eastern European and Central Asian countries included in the global ranking were among the top 50.", "zh": "纽约—在世界银行最新的《营商 》 （ Doing Business）报告中，有一半参与全球排名的东欧和中亚国家位列前50名。", "index": 1353}
{"en": "As a measure of economic maturity, the report confirms what many in the international development community have long known: the region is ascendant.", "zh": "作为经济成熟度的指标 ， 《 营商报告》确认了许多国际发展界早已熟知的事情：该地区正在崛起。", "index": 1354}
{"en": "Over the last decade, the economies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have recorded spectacular gains, buttressed by ambitious market and public-sector reforms.", "zh": "在过去十年中，东欧和中亚国家进步抢眼，它们依靠的雄心勃勃的市场和公共部门改革。", "index": 1355}
{"en": "The question now is how to ensure that this progress – which has tripled the size of the middle class – is sustained.", "zh": "现在的问题是如何确保这一进步 — — 它让中产阶级规模扩大了两倍 — — 得到保持。", "index": 1356}
{"en": "Signs of the region’s social and economic prosperity are everywhere.", "zh": "该地区社会和经济繁荣的迹象随处可见。", "index": 1357}
{"en": "In Azerbaijan, incomes have increased dramatically in recent decades, and only 5% of the population now lives below the poverty line – down from nearly 50% in 2002.", "zh": "在阿塞拜疆，最近几十年来收入大幅上升，目前只有5%的人口生活在贫困线以下 — — 而2002年这一比例接近50 % 。", "index": 1358}
{"en": "Elsewhere, Estonia is the third country in Europe in startups per person and has one of the fastest Internet speeds anywhere.", "zh": "在其他国家，爱沙尼亚的人均初创企业数量位列欧洲第三，也是全世界互联网网速最快的国家之一。", "index": 1359}
{"en": "And from Albania to Kyrgyzstan, e-government systems are allowing more people to connect with critical services through online and electronic portals.", "zh": "而从阿尔巴尼亚到吉尔吉斯斯坦，电子政务系统让更多的人能够通过在线和电子门户连接到关键服务。", "index": 1360}
{"en": "But while it is tempting to assume that the region is destined for prosperity, structural bottlenecks continue to slow progress, especially in the Western Balkans, the southern Caucasus, and parts of Central Asia.", "zh": "但在我们认为该地区必将走向繁荣时，结构性瓶颈仍在拖累进步，特别是在西巴尔干、南高加索和中亚的部分地区。", "index": 1361}
{"en": "To maintain momentum in meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, leaders must address three key issues.", "zh": "要保持势头、实现联合国2030年可持续发展目标（SDG ） ， 领导人必须解决三个重要问题。", "index": 1362}
{"en": "First, the region’s economies need to be strengthened to incentivize smarter, more sustainable growth.", "zh": "首先，该地区经济体需要变得更加强大以激励更智能、更可持续的增长。", "index": 1363}
{"en": "For example, fossil-fuel subsidies should be reconsidered, because they discourage investment in energy-efficiency projects, and impede the development of renewable technologies.", "zh": "比如，化石燃料补贴应该重新考虑，因为它们阻碍了能源效率项目的投资，也阻碍了可再生科技的发展。", "index": 1364}
{"en": "Similarly, while public financing of pensions and welfare programs is dependent on taxing labor, much of the region currently suffers from high rates of unemployment; in the Western Balkans, there are nearly no jobs, or none at all.", "zh": "类似地，退休金和福利计划的公共融资需要向劳动力征税，而该地区大部分地区却饱受失业率高企之苦；西巴尔干地区几乎没有工作岗位可用。", "index": 1365}
{"en": "Job creation is an urgent challenge for every state in the region.", "zh": "就业创造对域内所有国家来说都是一项紧迫挑战。", "index": 1366}
{"en": "Second, in many countries, the space for civil society is becoming narrower, posing a threat to pluralism and accountability.", "zh": "其次，在许多国家，公民社会的生存空间越来越狭窄，这成为多元化和问责的威胁。", "index": 1367}
{"en": "To prevent conflict and give voice to the region’s marginalized groups, tolerance and respect for human rights must be made essential ingredients of governance.", "zh": "为了防止冲突、为域内边缘化群体提供发出声音的机会，宽容和尊重人权必须成为治理的核心要素。", "index": 1368}
{"en": "Finally, the region must coordinate on strategies to address the changes that automation and artificial intelligence will bring to the labor market.", "zh": "最后，该地区必须制定协调战略克服自动化和人工智能给劳动力市场带来的变化。", "index": 1369}
{"en": "Leaders in some countries, particularly Belarus, are shifting economic output from heavy manufacturing to technology startups.", "zh": "一些国家特别是白俄罗斯的领导人正在设法让经济产出从重型制造业向科技初创企业转移。", "index": 1370}
{"en": "But authorities everywhere can do more to increase the resilience of their workforces.", "zh": "但各国当局都可以在提高劳动力适应力方面做更多事情。", "index": 1371}
{"en": "Fortunately, governments, technology companies, civil-society groups, and journalists recognize the salience of these issues and are working together to build more transparent and accountable institutions.", "zh": "幸运的是，政府、科技公司、公民社会团体以及记者认识到这些问题的突出性，并在合作构建更透明、问责性更好的机构。", "index": 1372}
{"en": "In many countries, heads of government are using the SDGs to guide their national planning and efforts to legislate reforms.", "zh": "在许多国家，政府首脑正在用SDG指引国家规划和立法改革。", "index": 1373}
{"en": "The parliaments of several Central Asian countries have even endorsed the SDGs as a development roadmap.", "zh": "一些中亚国家的议会甚至将SDG写入了发展路线图。", "index": 1374}
{"en": "Changes like these are helping to translate development ambition into action.", "zh": "诸如此类的变化有助于将发展雄心转化为行动。", "index": 1375}
{"en": "In Armenia, the government recently created the world’s first national SDG innovation laboratory, a collaborative effort designed to “accelerate” SDG implementation.", "zh": "在亚美尼亚，政府最近新成立了世界首个国家SDG创新实验室，这是一个为“加快”SDG实施而进行的合作项目。", "index": 1376}
{"en": "Initial research efforts will focus on increasing the country’s tax collection, improving its education system, and boosting its renewable-energy sector.", "zh": "初始研究计划将聚焦于提高国家税收、改善教育制度以及提振可再生能源业。", "index": 1377}
{"en": "Meanwhile, planning officials in Moldova have used crowdfunding to raise millions of dollars from the diaspora to fund sustainable development projects at home.", "zh": "与此同时，摩尔多瓦的规划馆员利用众筹从侨民手中筹集数百万美元用于国内可持续发展项目。", "index": 1378}
{"en": "Revitalization efforts have included the reconstruction of a public plaza in the capital, Chișinău, and the expansion of infrastructure in rural areas.", "zh": "复兴计划包括重建首都基希讷乌的一个公共广场和扩张农村基础设施等。", "index": 1379}
{"en": "The region’s private sector is also participating actively in sustainable development efforts.", "zh": "该地区的私人部门也在积极参与可持续发展措施。", "index": 1380}
{"en": "From Siemens’ green heating and air conditioning systems to Unilever’s “equal pay for equal work” policy, multinational firms operating in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are embracing sustainability and equality as viable business models.", "zh": "从西门子的绿色采暖和空调系统到联合利华的“同工同酬”政策，在东欧和中亚经营的跨国企业都将可持续性和平等性视为可行的商业模式。", "index": 1381}
{"en": "In only a few decades, the people of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have witnessed profound political and economic changes.", "zh": "在短短几十年里，东欧和中亚人民经历了深刻的政治和经济变化。", "index": 1382}
{"en": "To capitalize on the development progress already made, countries and organizations must learn from one another, adapting solutions to local conditions.", "zh": "要利用已经取得的发展成就，各国和组织必须彼此学习，根据本地条件采用方案。", "index": 1383}
{"en": "That will be the main topic at the Istanbul Development Dialogues, an annual global gathering organized by the UN Development Programme, this week.", "zh": "这也是本周举行的伊斯坦布尔发展对话（Istanbul Development Dialogues，联合国开发规划署组织的年度全球会议）的主要议题。", "index": 1384}
{"en": "As the new UNDP Strategic Plan for 2018-2021 argues, collaboration is a critical component to any sustainable-development strategy.", "zh": "联合国开发规划署2018—2021年战略计划指出，合作是可持续发展战略的关键要素。", "index": 1385}
{"en": "If the measure of a country can be calculated by how easily business is conducted within its borders, the states of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have a bright future.", "zh": "如果一国的衡量指标可以通过在其境内营商的容易程度来计算，那么东欧和中亚国家有着光明的未来。", "index": 1386}
{"en": "With strong leadership that transforms the region’s economies and modernizes its institutions, the region’s recent gains will not be fleeting.", "zh": "拥有改变地区经济、现代化地区机构的强力领导层，该地区最近的进步不会飞逝。", "index": 1387}
{"en": "The Achilles’ Heel of Trumponomics", "zh": "特朗普经济学的阿克琉斯之踵", "index": 1388}
{"en": "NEW HAVEN – Donald Trump’s economic strategy is severely flawed.", "zh": "纽黑文—唐纳德·特朗普的经济战略存在严重缺陷。", "index": 1389}
{"en": "The US president-elect wants to restore growth via deficit spending in a country with a chronic shortfall of saving.", "zh": "这位当选总统想要通过赤字支出在长期储蓄不足的美国重塑增长。", "index": 1390}
{"en": "This points to a further compression in national saving, making a widening of an already outsize trade gap all but inevitable.", "zh": "这将进一步挤压国民储蓄，导致已然十分巨大的贸易缺口不可避免地继续扩大。", "index": 1391}
{"en": "That dynamic unmasks the Achilles’ heel of Trumponomics: a blatant protectionist bias that collides head-on with America’s inescapable reliance on foreign saving and trade deficits to sustain economic growth.", "zh": "这一动态暴露了特朗普经济学的阿克琉斯之踵：公然倒向保护主义，而保护主义与保持美国经济增长无法摆脱的外部储蓄和贸易赤字依赖格格不入。", "index": 1392}
{"en": "The Trump administration will not inherit a strong and sound US economy.", "zh": "特朗普政策无法从前任手中获得一个强大而可靠的经济。", "index": 1393}
{"en": "The pace of recovery since the Great Recession has been running at half that of normal cyclical rebounds – all the more disturbing given the massive size of the contraction in 2008-09.", "zh": "自大衰退以来，复苏速度只有常规周期性反弹的一半 — — 考虑到2008—09年间的巨大萎缩程度，复苏速度的萎靡尤其令人不安。", "index": 1394}
{"en": "And savings, the seed corn of future prosperity, remain in woefully short supply.", "zh": "而身为未来繁荣种子的储蓄仍然处于严重短缺状态。", "index": 1395}
{"en": "The so-called net national saving rate – the depreciation-adjusted sum of business, household, and government saving – stood at just 2.4% of national income in mid-2016.", "zh": "2006年年中，所谓的净国民储蓄率 — — 经折旧调整的企业、家庭和政府储蓄总和 — — 仅为国民收入的2.4 % 。", "index": 1396}
{"en": "While that’s an improvement from the unprecedented negative saving position in 2008-2011, it remains far short of the 6.3% average that prevailed over the final three decades of the twentieth century.", "zh": "尽管相对2008—2011年间前所未有的负储蓄头寸而言这已经算得上是改善，但与二十世纪最后三十年6.3%的平均水平相比仍然相去甚远。", "index": 1397}
{"en": "This is important because it explains the pernicious trade deficits that Trump continues to rail against.", "zh": "这个问题很重要，因为它解释了特朗普一直大加鞭挞的罪恶的贸易赤字。", "index": 1398}
{"en": "Lacking in saving and wanting to grow, the United States must import surplus saving from abroad.", "zh": "美国一方面缺少储蓄，一方面又渴望增长，因此必须从国外进口储蓄盈余。", "index": 1399}
{"en": "And the only way to attract that foreign capital is by running massive current-account and trade deficits.", "zh": "而吸引这一外国资本的唯一办法是通过大规模经常项目和贸易赤字。", "index": 1400}
{"en": "The numbers bear this out: since 2000, when national saving fell well below trend, the current-account deficit has widened to an average of 3.8% of GDP – nearly four times the 1% gap from 1970 to 1999.", "zh": "数字说明一切：自2000年国民储蓄大幅低于趋势水平以来，经常项目赤字平均值扩大到GDP的3.8 % — —是1970—1999年间1%的缺口水平的近四倍。", "index": 1401}
{"en": "Similarly, the net export deficit – the broadest measure of a country’s trade imbalance – has been 4% of GDP since 2000, versus an average of 1.1% over the final three decades of the twentieth century.", "zh": "类似地，净出口赤字 — — 一国贸易失衡程度最广泛的指标 — — 自2000年以来为GDP的4 % ， 而二十世纪最后三十年间的平均水平为1.1 % 。", "index": 1402}
{"en": "Trumponomics has the cause and effect behind this development backwards.", "zh": "特朗普经济学具备了这一趋势倒转的因果关系。", "index": 1403}
{"en": "It fixates on country-specific sources of the trade deficit, like China and Mexico, but misses the fundamental point that these bilateral deficits are symptoms of America’s far deeper saving problem.", "zh": "特朗普经济学关注贸易赤字的具体国家来源（如中国和墨西哥 ） ， 但忽视了这些双边赤字只是更深层次的美国储蓄问题的症候这一基本点。", "index": 1404}
{"en": "Presume for the moment that the US closes down trade with China and Mexico – the first and fourth largest components of the overall trade deficit – through a combination of tariffs and other protectionist measures (including the proposed renegotiation of NAFTA and a Mexican-funded border wall).", "zh": "假设有朝一日美国通过关税和其他保护主义措施（包括特朗普所提出的重新谈判NAFTA和由墨西哥出钱修建边境墙）关闭与中国和墨西哥的贸易 — — 它们分别是贸易赤字第一大和第四大来源。", "index": 1405}
{"en": "Without addressing America’s chronic saving shortage, the Chinese and Mexican components of the trade deficit would simply be redistributed to other countries – most likely to higher-cost producers.", "zh": "这无法解决美国由来已久的储蓄短缺，来自中国和墨西哥的贸易赤字将重新分配给其他国家 — — 很有可能是成本更高的生产国。", "index": 1406}
{"en": "The result would be the functional equivalent of a tax hike on beleaguered middle-class US families.", "zh": "结果在效果上等价于对饱受挤压的美国中产阶级家庭增税。", "index": 1407}
{"en": "In short, there is no bilateral fix for a multilateral problem.", "zh": "简言之，多边问题无法通过双边方法解决。", "index": 1408}
{"en": "The US had trade deficits with 101 countries in 2015 – a multilateral problem stemming from a saving shortfall that cannot be effectively addressed through country-specific “remedies.”", "zh": "2015年，美国对101个国家存在贸易赤字 — — 这是一个源自储蓄短缺的多边问题，它无法通过针对具体国家的“疗法”解决。", "index": 1409}
{"en": "That’s not to say that America’s trading partners should be let off the hook for unfair practices.", "zh": "这并不是说美国的贸易伙伴可以摆脱不公平行为的干系。", "index": 1410}
{"en": "But it does mean that there is limited hope for resolving seemingly chronic trade deficits – and the related erosion of domestic hiring traceable to these imbalances – if the US doesn’t start saving again.", "zh": "但这确实意味着，如果美国不重新开始储蓄，解决似乎存在已久的贸易赤字问题 — — 以及可归因于这些失衡的相关的国内就业损失问题 — — 的希望十分有限。", "index": 1411}
{"en": "Alas, this plot is about to thicken.", "zh": "可惜，情况将变得越发复杂。", "index": 1412}
{"en": "Trumponomics seems likely to exacerbate America’s saving shortfall in the years ahead.", "zh": "未来几年，特朗普经济学可能恶化美国的储蓄短缺。", "index": 1413}
{"en": "Analyses by the Tax Policy Center, the Tax Foundation, and Moody’s Analytics all indicate that federal budget deficits under Trump’s economic plan are headed back toward at least 7% of GDP over the next ten years.", "zh": "税收政策中心（Tax Policy Center ） 、 税收基金会（Tax Foundation）和穆迪分析公司（Moody’s Analytics）的分析都表明，按照特朗普经济计划计算，联邦预算赤字在未来十年将至少回升至GDP的7 % 。", "index": 1414}
{"en": "Trump’s senior economic-policy advisers, Peter Navarro and Wilbur Ross (Trump's pick for commerce secretary), argued in a position paper in September that these estimates are flawed, because they don’t take into account “growth-inducing windfalls” from regulatory and energy reforms, or the added bonanza that should arise from a sharp narrowing of America’s trade deficit.", "zh": "特朗普的高级经济政策顾问彼得·纳瓦罗（Peter Navarro）和威尔布尔·罗斯（Wilbur Ross）在9月份的立场报告中指出，这些估算存在缺陷，因为它们没有考虑来自监管和能源改革的“促进增长的意外之喜”以及美国贸易赤字急剧收缩所带来额外收益。", "index": 1415}
{"en": "Indeed, the Navarro-Ross analysis attributes fully 73% of the growth-inducing revenue windfall of Trumponomics to a massive improvement in the overall trade balance over the next decade.", "zh": "事实上，纳瓦罗-罗斯的分析认为，将特朗普经济学所带来的促进增长的收入意外之喜的整整73%归因于未来十年间总体贸易平衡的大幅改善。", "index": 1416}
{"en": "Yet, as stressed above, barring a miraculous surge in national saving, this is highly dubious.", "zh": "但是，如上文所强调的，如果国民储蓄不出现巨大增长，这一前景非常可疑。", "index": 1417}
{"en": "Creative accounting, long a staple of supply-side economics, has never been more imaginative.", "zh": "创造性会计 — — 供给侧经济学的长期招牌性行为 — — 也不敢这么想。", "index": 1418}
{"en": "Therein lies one of the most glaring disconnects of Trumponomics.", "zh": "这就引出了特朗普经济学最刺眼的逻辑混乱。", "index": 1419}
{"en": "Getting tough on trade at a time when national saving is about to come under ever-greater pressure simply doesn’t add up.", "zh": "在国民储蓄即将承受前所未有的压力的档口收紧贸易绝对是无济于事的。", "index": 1420}
{"en": "Even the most conservative estimates of the federal budget deficit suggest that the already-depressed net national saving rate could re-enter negative territory at some point in the 2018-2019 period.", "zh": "即使是最保守的联邦预算赤字估计也认为，已经饱受抑制的净国民储蓄率可能在2018—2019年间的某个时点重新滑入负区间。", "index": 1421}
{"en": "That would put renewed pressure on the current-account and trade deficits, making it extremely difficult to reverse the loss of jobs and income that politicians are quick to blame on America’s trading partners.", "zh": "这将给经常项目和贸易赤字造成新的压力，使扭转就业和收入损失 — — 政客马上就会将它归咎于美国的贸易伙伴 — — 变得极其困难。", "index": 1422}
{"en": "Ironically, in the coming era of negative saving, the US will find itself increasingly dependent on surplus saving from abroad.", "zh": "讽刺的是，在即将到来的负储蓄时代，美国将越来越依赖来自海外的盈余储蓄。", "index": 1423}
{"en": "If the Trump administration takes aim at major foreign lenders – namely, China – its strategy could quickly backfire.", "zh": "如果特朗普政府将目标对准主要外国贷款人 — — 即中国 — — 其战略可能很快会适得其反。", "index": 1424}
{"en": "At a minimum, there could be an adverse impact on the terms by which America borrows from abroad; that could mean higher interest rates – hints of which are already evident – and ultimately downward pressure on the dollar.", "zh": "至少美国海外借贷条件将受到消极影响；这可能意味着利率升高 — — 其迹象已经十分明显 — — 最终则会令美元承受贬值压力。", "index": 1425}
{"en": "And, of course, there is the worst-case scenario of an escalating global trade war.", "zh": "当然，最坏情形是全球贸易战升级。", "index": 1426}
{"en": "Protectionism, anemic saving, and deficit spending make for an especially toxic cocktail.", "zh": "保护主义、储蓄不足和赤字支出形成了一个极其有害的组合。", "index": 1427}
{"en": "Under Trumponomics, it will be exceedingly difficult to make America great again.", "zh": "在特朗普经济学统治下，让美国重新伟大将难于上青天。", "index": 1428}
{"en": "A Clarion Call for Emerging Markets", "zh": "新兴市场的号角", "index": 1429}
{"en": "ITHACA – With 2012 underway, it is worth reflecting on how a decade of strong economic growth in emerging markets led to last year’s resounding political transformations.", "zh": "伊萨卡—步入2012年之际，我们值得思考一下新兴市场的十年强劲经济增长是如何引发去年波涛汹涌的政治转型的。", "index": 1430}
{"en": "From the dramatic events in the Middle East, to the groundswell of support for the anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare in India, leaders in emerging markets are getting a clear message from the streets that growth is not everything.", "zh": "从中东的戏剧性事件，到印度人民对安纳·哈扎尔（Anna Hazare）反腐行动山呼海啸的支持，街头运动站在向新兴市场的领导人传递一个清晰的信号，光有增长是不够的。", "index": 1431}
{"en": "They ignore this message at their peril.", "zh": "忽视这个信号必将付出代价。", "index": 1432}
{"en": "Emerging-market economies delivered solid growth during the 2000’s, and even survived the global financial crisis without a growth collapse.", "zh": "21世纪的第一个十年，新兴市场经济体稳步增长，甚至连全球金融危机都没有阻止它们。", "index": 1433}
{"en": "But the specter of rising corruption is compromising the legitimacy of their economic gains and eroding support for further reforms needed to sustain their growth momentum.", "zh": "但伴随着经济利益一同出现的是腐败横行，而腐败横行动摇着人们对维持增长势头所必须的深入改革的支持。", "index": 1434}
{"en": "Corruption takes many forms, but, in emerging markets, a combination of factors has turned it into a cancer that ultimately topples regimes.", "zh": "腐败有多种形式，但是，在新兴市场，多种因素的合力正在形成最终颠覆现有体制的癌症。", "index": 1435}
{"en": "Relentless low-level corruption is a major irritant for poor people in many of these countries; indeed, it limits their access to the social services and basic government functions that they often depend upon for their very survival.", "zh": "在这些国家中，肆无忌惮的低层次腐败激怒着贫困人口；事实上，低层次腐败让贫困人口无法获得他们赖以生存的社会服务和基本政府功能。", "index": 1436}
{"en": "Another type of corruption involves siphoning enormous sums of money from large-scale projects.", "zh": "另一种腐败是从大规模项目中捞取巨额回扣。", "index": 1437}
{"en": "In India, for example, the government lost as much as $30-40 billion of much-needed revenue when coveted band spectrum was sold through a rigged auction.", "zh": "比如，在印度，供不应求的频谱通过拍卖发售，而拍卖是被操纵的，政府因此要损失高达300—400亿美元的收入。", "index": 1438}
{"en": "For ordinary people, large-scale corruption is less visible, because, while the sums involved are mind-boggling, the costs are not as directly felt as they are in the case of lower-level graft.", "zh": "对普通民众来说，大规模腐败不一定看得见，因为，尽管涉案数量大到令人咋舌，但其成本并不像低层次腐败那样能让他们直接感受到。", "index": 1439}
{"en": "But the perception of this type of mega-corruption has changed as rapid growth has increased inequality.", "zh": "但随着快速增长加剧了不平等性，人们对这类大规模腐败的感知也发生了变化。", "index": 1440}
{"en": "In countries like China and India, rapid economic growth has lifted a huge number of people out of poverty.", "zh": "在中国和印度等国家，快速的经济增长让大量人民摆脱了贫困。", "index": 1441}
{"en": "But the fruits of globalization and rapid growth have not been evenly shared – the rich become super-rich, even as a large fraction of the population remains destitute.", "zh": "但全球化和快速增长带来的好处并不是均匀分布的，富人变得愈加富有了，而大部分人民仍在贫困状态中挣扎。", "index": 1442}
{"en": "Rising income inequality is hardly limited to emerging markets, but their combination of open corruption and pervasive inequities creates a toxic brew that is undermining support for reforms that would strengthen and consolidate their economic gains.", "zh": "收入不平等恶化的问题绝不仅限于新兴市场，但公开腐败和普遍的不公相结合就造成了一股暗流，破坏了人们对增进和巩固经济利益所需要的改革的支持。", "index": 1443}
{"en": "In many emerging markets, a lack of political freedom adds to the combustible mix.", "zh": "在许多新兴市场国家，缺乏政治自由在给问题火上浇油。", "index": 1444}
{"en": "The combination of corruption, inequality, and political repression builds up enormous pressure, and there are no institutional channels through which to release it.", "zh": "腐败、不公加上政治压迫造成了巨大的压力，而且没有发泄这种压力的制度性渠道。", "index": 1445}
{"en": "But freer political regimes are not a panacea.", "zh": "但政治自由也不是万灵丹。", "index": 1446}
{"en": "In a democracy like India’s, the politically well-connected benefit from skewed growth, thus increasing the resentment of those left behind.", "zh": "在印度这样的民主国家，在政治上有关系者从有缺陷的增长中捞到了巨大的好处，而没有捞到好处者怨声载道。", "index": 1447}
{"en": "The opportunity to “throw the rascals out” in each election cycle helps to let off some steam, but it does not resolve the problems that are generating it.", "zh": "在每个选举周期中，人民都有一次“让混蛋滚蛋”的机会，这在一定程度上减轻了压力，但并没有根除造成这一现象的问题。", "index": 1448}
{"en": "It is difficult to predict what triggers popular protest, but economic factors are key.", "zh": "很难预测什么会触发群众游行，但经济因素是关键的。", "index": 1449}
{"en": "For example, rising food prices tend to hurt the poor, especially the urban poor, who spend a large share of their income on food; unlike agricultural workers, they receive none of the benefits of higher food prices.", "zh": "比如，食品价格上涨会伤害贫民，特别是城市贫民，他们收入中的一大块都花在了视频上；而与农村劳动力不同，他们不能从食品价格上涨中获益。", "index": 1450}
{"en": "With swelling urban populations, it will become increasingly difficult to keep a lid on these pressures.", "zh": "随着城市人口的膨胀，减轻他们的压力将变得越来越困难。", "index": 1451}
{"en": "Some governments have reacted to recent events with political repression, information blackouts, or a combination of authoritarian measures.", "zh": "有的国家对最近发生的事件的反应是政治压迫、信息封锁或多种威权措施的综合。", "index": 1452}
{"en": "China, for example, blocked media coverage of the Egyptian protests.", "zh": "比如，中国就屏蔽了关于埃及示威的媒体报道。", "index": 1453}
{"en": "The Arab Spring, however, reveals the fragility of repressive political regimes that try to maintain their legitimacy by limiting information flows.", "zh": "但是，阿拉伯之春显示了高压政治体制的脆弱，通过限制信息流动维持统治的合法性是行不通的。", "index": 1454}
{"en": "The main lesson for dynamic emerging-market countries is that an exclusive focus on GDP growth may ultimately not be good for economic and political stability.", "zh": "充满活力的新兴市场国家给我们的主要教训是，只关注GDP增长最终可能不利于经济和政治稳定。", "index": 1455}
{"en": "Even with rapid increases in national income, if these countries’ leaders do not distribute the benefits fairly, they will become vulnerable to popular discontent.", "zh": "尽管国民收入有了快速增加，但如果领导人不能公平地分配经济增长到来的好处，他们就很容易受到群众的反对。", "index": 1456}
{"en": "Tackling corruption is critical to improving long-term growth and maintaining social stability.", "zh": "处理腐败是改善长期增长、维持社会稳定的关键。", "index": 1457}
{"en": "These economies need measures that help to keep the poor out of poverty traps, and that give them realistic opportunities to improve their economic well-being.", "zh": "这些国家需要采取措施助贫民摆脱贫困陷阱，给他们现实的机会改善其经济福利。", "index": 1458}
{"en": "Such steps include broadening financial markets to give more people access to credit and investment, strengthening social safety nets to protect the economically vulnerable, and improving educational access and quality.", "zh": "这些措施包括扩大金融市场，让更多的人能够获得信用和投资；增强社会安全网以保护经济弱势群体；以及增加教育的可获得性和平等性。", "index": 1459}
{"en": "These lessons apply equally to advanced economies, which also suffer from rising inequality and subtle forms of corruption.", "zh": "这些教训对发达经济体同样有效，因为发达经济体也在遭受不平等性恶化和腐败潜规则的问题。", "index": 1460}
{"en": "But, for those wealthy economies, restoring decent growth is now the major priority.", "zh": "但是，对富国来说，重建漂亮的经济增长才是当务之急。", "index": 1461}
{"en": "Emerging markets have a golden opportunity to build on their economic gains and lock in growth and stability by tackling deep-seated problems like corruption.", "zh": "新兴市场正面临着黄金机会，可以通过解决腐败等深层次问题来最大程度地汲取经济利益、锁定增长和稳定。", "index": 1462}
{"en": "As the past year’s events have shown, the costs of inaction could be calamitous.", "zh": "去年发生的一系列事件表明，不作为的代价是沉重的。", "index": 1463}
{"en": "A Climate Deal is Not Enough", "zh": "仅一个气候协议还不足够", "index": 1464}
{"en": "AMSTERDAM – During the COP15 climate summit in Copenhagen, world leaders have been negotiating the future of our planet. All the signs suggest that they are unlikely to sign a global climate treaty.", "zh": "阿姆斯特丹 — —", "index": 1465}
{"en": "The politicians, civil servants, and other participants at the Copenhagen summit have mainly been bombarding each other with numbers.", "zh": "在本次哥本哈根气候大会上，世界各国的领导人们正在讨论我们未来的命运。", "index": 1466}
{"en": "Figures on how much various countries should reduce CO2 emissions, the amount of money they should put up in coming years, the exact nature of their responsibilities, how much temperature increase Earth will be able to endure, and how long we can continue to wait.", "zh": "所有迹象都显示，他们不可能签署一个全球性的气候条约。 不同的观点，不同的工业化进程，不同的政治联盟，各国之间彼此有太多的分歧。", "index": 1467}
{"en": "These are all very important issues.", "zh": "会议期间，政客，公务员和其他参会者各自引用不同的数字相互攻击。", "index": 1468}
{"en": "But the mere figures are simply not enough. A different approach to the problem of climate change is needed.", "zh": "这些数字包括：不同减排的标准，应该投入的资金，目前各国准确的排放量，地球所能承受的温度升幅，以及我们还能等待多久。", "index": 1469}
{"en": "The climate issue can only be solved on the basis of shared, deeply felt ethical principles.", "zh": "这些都是重要的话题，但光有数字还不足够。", "index": 1470}
{"en": "Humanity has reached a critical moment in Earth’s history, at which peoples and nations will have to recognize their solidarity – with each other and with the Earth – and start acting upon it.", "zh": "我们应该另辟蹊径，找到解决气候问题的新方法。", "index": 1471}
{"en": "Similar to the way world leaders adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration in September 2000, and embraced the resulting Millennium Development Goals, today’s climate negotiators will have to commit themselves to creating a basis of shared fundamental ethical principles.", "zh": "只有大家深深感到，对社会责任拥有共同承担的义务，气候问题才能解决。 人类已经走到了一个历史关键时刻，所有的国家和民众必须团结起来 — — 一起为我们的地球做些什么。", "index": 1472}
{"en": "Such a basis is not hard to find.", "zh": "首先，我们应该接受2000年9月的联合国千年宣言，实现当时制定的共同发展目标。 这些的共同点并不难找。", "index": 1473}
{"en": "Its inspiration can be the Earth Charter, which, launched in 2000, was initiated by, among others, former USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev and Wangari Mathaai, who received the 2004 Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in the Green Belt Movement, a pan-African tree-planting initiative.", "zh": "由前苏联总统戈尔巴乔夫和旺加里‧马塔伊教授等发起的地球宪章就是很好的例子。 旺加里‧马塔伊积极发起了名为“绿带运动”的非洲植树活动，2004年因此获得诺贝尔和平奖。", "index": 1474}
{"en": "The climate problem does not stop at borders.", "zh": "气候问题不分国界。", "index": 1475}
{"en": "In the next few decades, a low-lying country like the Netherlands will need to invest billions of euros to intensify its age-old struggle against rising water.", "zh": "在今后的几十年里，一些低海拔的国家，例如荷兰，将投资数十亿美元，用于应对多年以来不断上涨的海平面。", "index": 1476}
{"en": "But in many other countries, the water is already flooding over the dikes, both literally and figuratively.", "zh": "而对其他一些国家而言，洪水实际行已经淹没了堤坝。 对于那些缺乏资金自救的国家尤其甚之。", "index": 1477}
{"en": "Climate change affects particularly those countries that lack the money needed to take adequate measures against rising sea levels, persistent droughts, or devastating storms, even though they had nothing to do with the primary cause of these problems – industrialization in the developed countries.", "zh": "它们无法应对不断上涨的海平面，持续的干旱和灾难性的风暴。 而这些国家往往不是工业化国家，无端成了气候问题的无辜受害者。", "index": 1478}
{"en": "Apart from the necessary, often infrastructural adaptations to survive the effects of climate change, enormous efforts to prevent even worse things from happening are required.", "zh": "除此之外，基础设施的改进等其他重大的举措也都十分必要。", "index": 1479}
{"en": "Large investments in forestation, agriculture, and energy supply are called for.", "zh": "我们必须在农林业和能源开发上投入巨额资金。", "index": 1480}
{"en": "In devising solutions, the role of women should be the main focus.", "zh": "妇女应该在其中担当重要角色。", "index": 1481}
{"en": "Women are often the first people who have to address the problem of gaining access to natural resources, and they are capable of playing a major role as pioneers in finding solutions to climate change and the way humankind should adapt to it.", "zh": "女性通常首先发现这些自然界问题，她们有能力承担起领导角色，找到解决人类生存问题的良方。", "index": 1482}
{"en": "In the short term, the world should become a sustainable global society of low CO2 emitters.", "zh": "简而言之，未来的世界应该是低碳可持续发展的社会。", "index": 1483}
{"en": "This is a mission for all humankind, in which patriotic feelings and thinking in terms of power blocs have no place.", "zh": "这是我们全人类的任务，狭隘的爱国主义和国家联盟的思维在这里没有市场。", "index": 1484}
{"en": "The pursuit of a sustainable global society of low CO2 emitters requires a tremendous effort.", "zh": "要想达到低碳可持续发展的社会，我们还需��做出巨大的努力。", "index": 1485}
{"en": "Precisely for this reason, it also requires a broadly shared ethical basis.", "zh": "这就要求我们有着共同的道德基础。", "index": 1486}
{"en": "This would guide the negotiating parties in such a way that they look not only for solutions to a part of the problem, but first and foremost at a comprehensive solution to the entire problem.", "zh": "这样才能避免片面的理解，找到一个对所有问题的全面性的解决方法。", "index": 1487}
{"en": "The climate change issue is too important to be left in the care of politicians.", "zh": "气候问题已不仅仅是政治领袖的事情。", "index": 1488}
{"en": "In Copenhagen, it is therefore imperative that not only nation states, but the business community and citizens combine their efforts to save our planet’s climate. That is not only a scientific necessity; it is an ethical imperative.", "zh": "在哥本哈根，不仅在国家层面，商界和市民社会也应该一起都行动起来，共同拯救我们的地球，这不仅仅是学术讨论，而是关乎道德层面的问题。", "index": 1489}
{"en": "A Communist Party without Communism", "zh": "没有共产主义的共产党", "index": 1490}
{"en": "PRINCETON – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s anointment of Alexander Medvedev to succeed him in what is supposed to be a democratic presidential election next March shows that Russia’s leaders have not changed a whit.", "zh": "普林斯顿 - - 俄国总统普京钦点梅德韦捷夫在明年三月本应民主的总统选举后继承总统职位，这标明俄国领导人并未做出任何改变。", "index": 1491}
{"en": "It looks increasingly likely that, as under Leonid Brezhnev, we will see the same names in the news for decades to come.", "zh": "现在看来越发可能我们将会在今后几十年中见到同样的名字，正如在伯列日涅夫统治时期一样。", "index": 1492}
{"en": "According to Gleb Pavlovsky, the Putin regime’s leading ideologist, the current Russian system is perfect in all respects but one: it doesn’t know its enemies.", "zh": "普京政权的首席意识形态官员巴普洛夫斯基说，俄国目前的体制除了不知道其敌人是谁意外在各方面都完美无缺。", "index": 1493}
{"en": "Indeed, it seems as if everyone in the Kremlin is reading Carl Schmitt, the Nazi legal theorist who taught that naming your enemy is the central mission of politics.", "zh": "确实，看起来克里姆林宫的每个人都在阅读纳粹法学家施密特的著作。 施密特教诲说，指出你的敌人是政治的中心使命。", "index": 1494}
{"en": "In the spirit of Schmitt, Putin’s men designated a liberal party, the Union of Right Forces, as their ur-enemy.", "zh": "根据施密特的精神，普京的人马设计了一个自由派政党即右翼力量联盟作为他们的敌人。", "index": 1495}
{"en": "Its public meetings were broken up by armed police; its leaders arrested and beaten; Putin called its supporters “coyotes.”", "zh": "该党的公开集会被武装警察驱散；其领导人被捕和遭到殴打；普京把它的支持者们称为“小狼 ” 。", "index": 1496}
{"en": "What is surprising is that this aggressive behavior occurred in response to no visible danger.", "zh": "令人惊讶的是，这一咄咄逼人的举动是在没有可以见到的危险的情况下发生的。", "index": 1497}
{"en": "Oil prices are soaring, as are Putin’s approval ratings.", "zh": "普京的支持率就像石油价格一样在上涨。", "index": 1498}
{"en": "His appointees control everything that matters, from Gazprom to the Central Electoral Committee.", "zh": "他所任命的官员控制所有重要部门，从俄国天然气石油公司到中央选举委员会。", "index": 1499}
{"en": "Since the pacification of Chechnya with violence and subsidies, the incarceration or emigration of a few financially viable opponents, and the massive “social investments” of recent years, which, under Medvedev’s personal supervision, have bribed the population, no credible force can seriously challenge Putin’s men.", "zh": "近年来用暴力和补贴平息车臣叛乱，拘捕和驱逐几个资金不菲的反对者并且最近几年在巴普洛夫斯基亲自监督下进行大幅度“社会投资 ” 。 这一投资收买了俄国人民，没有令人信服的力量可以严重挑战普京的人马。", "index": 1500}
{"en": "Yet their regime is in crisis, and they know it.", "zh": "但是他们的政权处于危机之中，而且他们也知道这一点。", "index": 1501}
{"en": "Russia’s economy is more dependent on gas and oil than ever before.", "zh": "俄国经济现在比以往更为依赖于天然气和石油。", "index": 1502}
{"en": "Military reform has been reversed.", "zh": "军事改革已经逆转。", "index": 1503}
{"en": "Despite increasing incomes, Russians are less educated and less healthy than they were when Putin came to power; they still die at a shockingly young age.", "zh": "尽管收入增加，俄国人的教育和健康都不如普京刚刚掌权之时；他们依旧过早去世。", "index": 1504}
{"en": "Russian involvement in world affairs is tainted by poison and corruption.", "zh": "俄国参与世界事务也是充斥着敌视和腐败。", "index": 1505}
{"en": "State monopolies undo what private businesses created.", "zh": "国家垄断把私有经济创造的东西化为乌有。", "index": 1506}
{"en": "With more money, ill-educated bureaucrats hire more ill-educated bureaucrats; as a result, the regime fails to rule the country.", "zh": "教育水平低下的官僚们有了更多的钱就任用更多的没文化的官僚。 结果，这一政权无法治理国家。", "index": 1507}
{"en": "The country is unruly, and its rulers know it.", "zh": "俄国混乱不堪，而其统治者们知道这一点。", "index": 1508}
{"en": "So they panic.", "zh": "所以他们就紧张不安。", "index": 1509}
{"en": "Putin’s aim was to subject all power to the control of Russia’s security forces.", "zh": "普京的目标是把所有的权力都归于俄国安全力量的控制之下。", "index": 1510}
{"en": "His generation of KGB officers watched the collapse of the Communist Party and all the governmental bodies that it “directed and controlled,” including the KGB.", "zh": "他的时代的克格勃官员目睹了共产党和及其“指导和控制”的所有政府机关的崩溃，包括克格勃在内。", "index": 1511}
{"en": "Under Putin, the security service has had its revenge.", "zh": "在普京统治下，安全力量进行报复。", "index": 1512}
{"en": "Its people have become powerful, arrogant, and enormously rich.", "zh": "它们的人马变得权力庞大、自负以及巨富。", "index": 1513}
{"en": "They have also become disobedient.", "zh": "他们也变得不停从调遣。", "index": 1514}
{"en": "In 2004, General Viktor Cherkesov, then Putin’s representative in northwest Russia, published an essay that glorified the KGB as the only unspoiled authority in a corrupted country.", "zh": "在2004年，当时担任普京驻俄国西北方代表的切尔克索夫将军发表文章，把克格勃美化成为腐败国家中唯一清廉的权力部门。", "index": 1515}
{"en": "This essay, more than anything else, defined Putin’s second term.", "zh": "这一文章要比任何东西都要确定普京的第二任期的性质。", "index": 1516}
{"en": "In October 2007, Cherkesov (now chief of one of the most obscure and powerful services, the Federal Anti-Drug Administration) published another essay in which he lamented his colleagues’ degradation: warriors had turned into traders, he complained.", "zh": "2007年10月，切尔克索夫(现在是最为不为人所知以及权力强大的部门联邦反毒品局局长)发表了另一篇文章，痛斥其同僚的堕落。 他抱怨说，武士变成了商人。", "index": 1517}
{"en": "Earlier, generals from a competing service, the FSB, had arrested Cherkesov’s deputy for “illegal bugging.”", "zh": "早先，与其争斗的联邦安全局的将军们因“非法窃听”逮捕了切尔克索夫的副手。", "index": 1518}
{"en": "In a public gesture of despair, Cherkesov admitted the failure of Putin’s project to reanimate Russian governance by subordinating it to the security services.", "zh": "切尔克索夫公开表示绝望，承认普京通过把俄国政府置于安全部门控制之下来创新振作政府是失败的。", "index": 1519}
{"en": "Cherkesov’s deputy remains in prison.", "zh": "切尔克索夫的副手还呆在牢里。", "index": 1520}
{"en": "Most believe that Putin is unable to intervene in his defense.", "zh": "大多数人相信普京无力干预为其辩护。", "index": 1521}
{"en": "In the absence of Communist Party control, these security officers betrayed their corporate ethic and engaged in horse-trading, applying force when a trade did not go well.", "zh": "在没有共产党控制的情况下，这些安全官员背叛了他们的企业伦理，参与交易，并且在交易不顺利的时候施加力量。", "index": 1522}
{"en": "That this happens to ordinary Russians is clear; what Cherkesov revealed was that Putin’s circle also confronts this situation.", "zh": "这发生在普通俄国人身上是明显的；切尔克索夫揭露的是普京圈子里的人也对抗这一局面。", "index": 1523}
{"en": "What is to be done when ex-KGB warriors turn their swords and bugs against one another?", "zh": "当以前的克格勃人马自相残杀的时候该怎么办呢？", "index": 1524}
{"en": "Cherkesov’s case exemplifies Putin’s nightmare.", "zh": "切尔克索夫的情况就是普京恶梦的例子。", "index": 1525}
{"en": "But if your instincts betray you, you go back to even deeper ones.", "zh": "但是如果你的本能背叛你，你就会进入更深的本能。", "index": 1526}
{"en": "Now that Putin’s people have left their predecessors’ neo-liberal ideas behind and feel disenchanted with the ex-KGB clique, the task is to recreate an omnipresent political party that controls the security services, the administration, business, and much else.", "zh": "现在，普京的人马已经抛弃了其前任新自由派观点，并且对前克格勃的结党营私感到不满。 现在的任务就是创新组织一个控制安全部门、政府、商界以及更多其他东西的无处不在的政党。", "index": 1527}
{"en": "This party will be centralized under personal leadership and will reduce the state to a legal fiction.", "zh": "这一政党将是个人领导下的集权体系，并且把国家削弱为一个法律虚构而已。", "index": 1528}
{"en": "Preaching nationalism, its managers will believe in their universal competence, as opposed to KGB-style professionalism and corporatism.", "zh": "其主管们灌输民族主义，相信其无所不能，而不是克格勃风格的专业精神和社团主义。", "index": 1529}
{"en": "Boris Yeltsin forbade party cells in state-controlled institutions by decree.", "zh": "叶利钦通过命令禁止政党存在于国家控制机构之中。", "index": 1530}
{"en": "Putin’s lawyers will reverse that decision; the party will have cells or committees in every factory, corporation, military unit, university department, etc.", "zh": "普京的律师们将会推翻这一决定。 政党可以在任何工厂、公司、军事单位、大学院系等等拥有组织或者委员会。", "index": 1531}
{"en": "Integrated by the leader’s charisma and party discipline, party members will direct and unify the desolated country.", "zh": "党员将在领导人魅力和党纪的融合下指导和团结这一荒凉的国家。", "index": 1532}
{"en": "This is Putin’s plan.", "zh": "这就是普京的计划。", "index": 1533}
{"en": "Like former Soviet leader Yuri Andropov, the only other KGB man to rule Russia, Putin will become the party’s general secretary.", "zh": "唯一的另一个统治俄国的克格勃是安德罗波夫。 普京像���一样将成为该党的总书记。", "index": 1534}
{"en": "As in the Soviet era, state and governmental officials will be reduced to party ciphers – the role that President Medvedev will play under General Secretary Putin.", "zh": "就像在苏联时期一样，国家和政府官员将会被变成党的暗号，这就是梅德韦捷夫总统在普京总书记领导下所扮演的角色。", "index": 1535}
{"en": "And, of course, being General Secretary carries no constitutional term limit.", "zh": "而且当然，总书记没有任期限制。", "index": 1536}
{"en": "In the end, Putin has what history left him: not ideas, just a faction yearning to consolidate its grip on power.", "zh": "最后，普京有的只是历史留给他的东西。 没有观念，只有渴望巩固权势的派系。", "index": 1537}
{"en": "Lenin and Trotsky needed a party to make their ideology a reality; Putin and Medvedev are devising an ideology to solidify their party.", "zh": "列宁和托洛斯基需要一个政党来把他们的意识形态变成现实；普京和梅德韦捷夫则正在设计一个意识形态来巩固其政党。", "index": 1538}
{"en": "It is a bizarre ideology.", "zh": "这是一个奇怪的意识形态。", "index": 1539}
{"en": "Accusing warriors of being traders and traders of being thieves, it shuns its Marxist origins.", "zh": "把武士指责为商人，把商人指责为贼，它抛弃了共产主义本源。", "index": 1540}
{"en": "It will subordinate all who really do work – traders, warriors, journalists, and others – to party ideologues whose sole job is to search for enemies.", "zh": "它将把所有作实际工作的人，也就是商人、武士、记者以及其他人统统置于政党理论家之下，而这些理论家唯一的工作就是寻找敌人。", "index": 1541}
{"en": "A Confederal Solution for Palestine", "zh": "巴勒斯坦问题的联邦制解决方案", "index": 1542}
{"en": "LONDON – Last month, while in New York City, I happened to be staying in the same hotel as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.", "zh": "伦敦 — — 上个月在纽约时，我碰巧与以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡同住在一家酒店。", "index": 1543}
{"en": "To accommodate his security needs, the hotel had been converted into a fortress, much like Israel itself.", "zh": "为照顾内塔尼亚胡的安全需要，这家酒店几乎被武装成一座堡垒，这与以色列本身颇有几份相似之处。", "index": 1544}
{"en": "Netanyahu was in the United States for yet another round of Middle East peace talks.", "zh": "内塔尼亚胡要在美国参加另一轮中东和平谈判。", "index": 1545}
{"en": "The US offered various sweeteners to induce Israel to freeze its West Bank settlement construction for another 90 days.", "zh": "美国开出种种优惠条件，目的是诱使以色列再冻结西岸定居点的建设九十天。", "index": 1546}
{"en": "The Israelis refused; another impasse was reached.", "zh": "以色列拒绝合作，谈判再度陷入僵持局面。", "index": 1547}
{"en": "What, then, might be the prospects of a negotiated peace between two peoples with claims to the same land?", "zh": "那么，对同一块土地提出领土要求的两群人究竟有着怎样的谈判前景？", "index": 1548}
{"en": "The answer is: very poor.", "zh": "答案只有一个： 谈判前景极其黯淡。", "index": 1549}
{"en": "All peace efforts since the Oslo accords of 1993 have been based on the “two-state solution,” according to which Israel is supposed to turn over the occupied territories to a Palestinian state, the Palestinians are supposed to renounce any claims on the Jewish state, and everyone is supposed to live happily ever after.", "zh": "1993年《奥斯陆协议》后所有的和平努力都以“两国制”为前提，在这样的前提下，以色列应该向巴勒斯坦国归还被占领土，而巴勒斯坦国则应承认犹太国家的主权，而后双方应该从此过上幸福的生活。", "index": 1550}
{"en": "A negotiated “land for peace” solution still remains official Western doctrine.", "zh": "通过谈判达成“以土地换和平”协议迄今仍是西方的主流理论。", "index": 1551}
{"en": "As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton put it in a recent speech, “a just, lasting, and comprehensive peace” has to be based on “two states for two peoples.”", "zh": "正如美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿在最近一次讲话中提到的那样 ， “ 为两国人民分别建国”是实现“公正、持久、全面和平”的基础。", "index": 1552}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the two main parties to the dispute, Palestine and Israel, are searching for unilateral alternatives to the stymied “peace process.”", "zh": "与此同时，中东冲突的两大主体巴勒斯坦和以色列都在不停寻找阻碍“和平进程”的单方解决方案。", "index": 1553}
{"en": "The Palestinians are pushing for international recognition of their statehood, while the Israelis are using their settlement policy to preempt a Palestinian state.", "zh": "巴勒斯坦人不断要求国际社会承认其独立国家地位，而以色列则意图借助定居点政策抢先占领巴勒斯坦。", "index": 1554}
{"en": "Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has said that, if the latest peace talks collapse, he will press for UN recognition of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders.", "zh": "巴勒斯坦总统马哈茂德·阿巴斯已经表示，如果最近一次和谈失败，他将敦促联合国以1967年边界为基础承认巴勒斯坦国。", "index": 1555}
{"en": "This month, Brazil and Argentina recognized “Palestine,” and a cascade of Latin American countries is expected to follow.", "zh": "巴西和阿根廷这个月承认了“巴勒斯坦 ” ， 预计将引发一连串拉美国家的纷纷仿效。", "index": 1556}
{"en": "Abbas is now setting his sights on Europe, and would ask Turkey to serve as a go-between.", "zh": "阿巴斯现在将目光钉住欧洲，并将要求土耳其扮演中间人的角色。", "index": 1557}
{"en": "The game is to use international recognition of an independent Palestinian state to pressure the US to retreat from its almost unconditional support for Israeli policy.", "zh": "其目的是利用国际舆论对独立巴勒斯坦国的承认向美国施压，迫使其改变几乎无条件支持以色列的政策。", "index": 1558}
{"en": "Israel’s main concern continues to be security.", "zh": "安全问题仍是以色列主要的关注目标。", "index": 1559}
{"en": "The official Western doctrine is that Israel’s long-term security depends on the success of the “peace process.”", "zh": "主流的西方理论仍然是以色列的长期安全取决于“和平进程”能否成功。", "index": 1560}
{"en": "In practice, Israel has been taking other measures to secure its future.", "zh": "事实上，以色列已经为保证未来安全采取了很多其他举措。", "index": 1561}
{"en": "Media attention has been focused on the “security wall,” which has certainly succeeded in reducing the level of violence.", "zh": "其中最受媒体关注的非“安全墙”莫属，这种方法确实有效减轻了暴力活动。", "index": 1562}
{"en": "But, to the hawks who now control Israeli politics, the key to Israel’s security depends on depth of defense, for which expansion of the settlements is indispensable.", "zh": "但在目前把持以色列政局的鹰派人物看来，以色列安全与否直接取决于防御深度，因此扩建定居点成为必不可少的一步。", "index": 1563}
{"en": "The hawks’ recipe for survival is threefold: continued military and economic support from the US, defensible frontiers through a strategic settlement program, and the carve-up of the Palestinian West Bank into disconnected bantustans, or subordinate authorities, incapable of concerted opposition to Israeli policy.", "zh": "鹰派提出了层层推进的三重生存计划： 继续争取美国的军事和经济支持、借助战略定居点计划修建可防御边界、以及将巴勒斯坦西岸地区割裂成互不相连的班图斯坦，或者是无力联合反对以色列政策的孤立政权。", "index": 1564}
{"en": "Thus, while Abbas seeks to create a new “fact on the ground” by drumming up international support for a Palestinian state, Israel aims to trump him by making such a state unviable.", "zh": "于是，在阿巴斯争取对巴勒斯坦国的国际支持，力求制造“既成事实”的同时，以色列的克敌之道则是釜底抽薪，让建立巴勒斯坦国的愿望不可能实现。", "index": 1565}
{"en": "The ideal alternative to both strategies is a peace process that aims not to create two states, but rather to establish the political and economic basis for a single confederal state.", "zh": "不追求两个国家、而建立拥有统一政治经济制度的联邦制国家才是上述两种战略的理想替代方案。", "index": 1566}
{"en": "Indeed, the two-state solution was always an illusion.", "zh": "事实上，分别建国的解决办法从来都无法实现。", "index": 1567}
{"en": "There was never enough land to satisfy the passionate possessiveness of all those with claims to it.", "zh": "有限的土地资源从来无法满足各方强烈的占有��愿。", "index": 1568}
{"en": "And, over time, Israeli settler disengagement from the West Bank and East Jerusalem has become just as impossible as any attempt by Israel to expel its remaining Arabs.", "zh": "而且，随着时间一点一滴的流逝，让以色列定居者从西岸和东耶路撒冷地区撤离和从该地区驱逐剩余阿拉伯人的企图都已经无法实现。", "index": 1569}
{"en": "Israeli Jews are bound to stay in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and Israeli Arabs are bound to stay in Israel proper.", "zh": "以色列犹太人注定要待在西岸和东耶路撒冷，而以色列阿拉伯人也注定要在以色列的本土上繁衍。", "index": 1570}
{"en": "These are the “facts on the ground” that doom Palestinian hopes for a sovereign Palestinian state no less than Israeli hopes for a wholly Jewish state.", "zh": "这就是“不得不面对的现实 ” ， 它打破了巴勒斯坦人独立建国的希望，而以色列人建立纯粹犹太国家的梦想也同样因此而破灭。", "index": 1571}
{"en": "Moreover, land for peace never made sense from an economic point of view.", "zh": "此外，从经济的角度讲，以土地换和平从来就是行不通的解决方案。", "index": 1572}
{"en": "If compensation for wrongs to the Palestinians was to be the guiding principle, there were always better ways of going about it than to found a rickety, poverty-ridden new country dependent on foreign aid.", "zh": "如果真的以补偿巴勒斯坦人所受的损失为解决问题的基本原则，那么总有比成立仰仗外国援助的贫困国家更好的办法来解决这场巴以冲突。", "index": 1573}
{"en": "Most people have forgotten that the Paris Protocols of April 1994 established a customs union between Israel and the occupied territories, with a joint Economic Council to adjudicate trade disputes.", "zh": "绝大多数人已经忘记1994年4月签订的《巴黎协议》建立了以色列和被占领土关税同盟，并规定由联合经济委员会负责对贸易纠纷做出裁决。", "index": 1574}
{"en": "The free movement of goods, labor, and capital between the two parts could have given a tremendous economic boost to Palestinian GDP.", "zh": "货物、劳工和资金的自由流动可以在很大程度上推动巴勒斯坦国内生产总值的发展。", "index": 1575}
{"en": "It could also have been the basis of a confederal state, whose Palestinian part would have benefited from the West Bank settlers’ productivity and taxes.", "zh": "这也可以成为建立联邦制国家的基础，西岸定居者的生产和纳税会帮助联邦制度下的巴勒斯坦方面。", "index": 1576}
{"en": "But this benign prospect was undermined by the violence needed to maintain the Jewish state and enable the emergence of a Palestinian one.", "zh": "但如此美好的前景却遭到以保护犹太国、成立巴勒斯坦国为目的的暴力的无情破坏。", "index": 1577}
{"en": "The official view remains that only an internationally guaranteed two-state settlement will bring about the security needed for the economic revival of the Palestinian territories.", "zh": "主流观点仍然坚持只有国际社会担保的两国解决方案才能确保巴勒斯坦地区经济复苏所必不可少的安全。", "index": 1578}
{"en": "But it is just possible that unilateral Israeli policy, implicitly backed by the US, will create interim conditions of peace that are sufficient for economic growth to cool Palestinian nationalism.", "zh": "但我们必须承认这种可能性，即受到美国暗中支持的以色列单边政策可以创造和平发展经济的临时条件，而经济的发展则能够熄灭巴勒斯坦民族主义的火焰。", "index": 1579}
{"en": "The Palestinian cause is not the overriding preoccupation of even the Arab states, so Netanyahu’s strategy of defense in depth stands a better chance of success than Abbas’s pursuit of statehood through international recognition.", "zh": "巴勒斯坦解放事业甚至谈不上阿拉伯国家压倒一切的当务之急，因此内塔尼亚胡的深度防御策略比阿巴斯博取国际承认的建国策略取得成功的机会更大。", "index": 1580}
{"en": "Netanyahu’s project is not moral.", "zh": "内塔尼亚胡的计划不合乎道德原则。", "index": 1581}
{"en": "But that doesn’t mean that it won’t work, at least for a time.", "zh": "但这并不意味着这项计划不会取得至少某种短期效果。", "index": 1582}
{"en": "A Confederation for Kosovo", "zh": "为科索沃建立邦联", "index": 1583}
{"en": "Time is running out in Kosovo.", "zh": "留给科索沃的时间已经越来越少了。", "index": 1584}
{"en": "If a United Nations-backed settlement is not reached by early December, the province’s majority Albanian population is likely to declare independence unilaterally – a move that the United States has announced it may support.", "zh": "如果一项由联合国支持的解决方案在十二月初不能出台，那么在这个省占多数的阿尔巴尼亚族很可能会单方面宣布独立。 美国曾表示会支持这一举动。", "index": 1585}
{"en": "That would be a disastrous step.", "zh": "那将是一个灾难性的举动。", "index": 1586}
{"en": "Russia would be furious, because it fears that Kosovo’s secession – whether or not it is internationally recognized – might fuel separatist movements in the former Soviet empire.", "zh": "俄罗斯会震怒，因为它担心科索沃一旦分离，不管是否为国际所承认，都会进一步引发前苏联帝国内部主张独立的运动。", "index": 1587}
{"en": "Serbia is even more strongly opposed.", "zh": "塞尔维亚甚至会更激烈地表示反对。", "index": 1588}
{"en": "Dusan Prorokovic, Serbia’s state secretary for Kosovo, has said that his country might use force to maintain its sovereignty.", "zh": "塞尔维亚负责科索沃问题的国务秘书普罗洛科维奇曾表示他的国家可能会动用武力来维护他的主权。", "index": 1589}
{"en": "Even if the government hesitates, ultranationalist groups might push Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica to send in troops: the current UN presence in Kosovo is very thin (only 40 “military observers” and 2,116 policemen) but the stationing of 15,000 NATO troops could make any armed clash very dangerous.", "zh": "即便政府会在这个问题上犹豫不决，极端民族主义团体也可能会迫使总理科什图尼察派出军队。 联合国目前在科索沃的军事力量非常薄弱（只有40个“军事观察员”和2116名警察 ） ， 但是在那里驻扎15000名北约军队也许会使任何的武装冲突变得非常危险。", "index": 1590}
{"en": "After eight years of international administration, Kosovo’s Albanian majority has tasted freedom and is eager for full independence.", "zh": "在经过八年的国际管制后，科索沃占据多数的阿尔巴尼亚族已经尝到了自由的味道，并且渴望完全独立。", "index": 1591}
{"en": "But Serbia claims that the province remains an essential part of its historical and cultural tradition.", "zh": "但是塞尔维亚宣称，这个省从历史和文化传统上都是它的一个重要部分。", "index": 1592}
{"en": "Moreover, independence would not be accepted by the Serbian public, which has already watched in dismay as “Great Serbia” has been gradually whittled away, most recently with the secession of Montenegro.", "zh": "此外，独立也不能为塞尔维亚的公众所接受，他们已经眼睁睁地看着“大塞尔维亚”一点点地在缩小，而最近是黑山共和国分离。", "index": 1593}
{"en": "Serbia is prepared to concede only “enhanced autonomy” to Kosovo, and some capacity to enter into international agreements.", "zh": "塞尔维亚已经准备给予科索沃只会“得到增强的自治权 ” ， 以及部分签定国际协约的地位。", "index": 1594}
{"en": "Yet, while the two parties now seem irreconcilable, it is not too late for compromise.", "zh": "然而，尽管这两方看上去似乎无法调和，要取得妥协现在还为时不晚。", "index": 1595}
{"en": "But this is possible only by resuscitating – and updating – an old institution of the international community: a confederation of states.", "zh": "但是这只有通过复苏以及更新一个国际社会的旧的机制，也就是多国邦联才有可能实现。", "index": 1596}
{"en": "By means of a binding UN Security Council resolution, Kosovo could be granted full and exclusive authority over its citizens and territory, as well as limited capacity for action on the international scene.", "zh": "通过有约束力的联合国安理会决议，科索沃可以被授予对其公民和领土全面和唯一的管辖权，以及在国际层面采取行动的有限权力。", "index": 1597}
{"en": "It could be authorized to enter into trade agreements as well as agreements concerning individuals (for example, admission and circulation of foreigners, or extradition), plus the right to seek admission to the UN (which does not require full sovereignty and independence).", "zh": "可以允许其签署贸易协议以及与个人相关的协议（比如，允许外国人入境及在其境内活动，或者引渡 ） ， 以及寻求加入联合国的权利（联合国并不要求完全的主权和独立 ） 。", "index": 1598}
{"en": "Kosovo would thus gain some essential trappings of statehood.", "zh": "科索沃将因此获得某些表明国家地位的重要外部标志。", "index": 1599}
{"en": "However, a decision-making body consisting of delegates from Kosovo, Serbia, and the European Union would be given full authority over major foreign policy issues (for example, alliances and relations with international economic institutions), defence, borders (in case Kosovo wished to join with Albania), and the treatment of Kosovo’s Serbian minority.", "zh": "然而，一个由科索沃、塞尔维亚和欧盟代表组成的决策机构将全权处理重大的外交政策事宜（比如，与国际经济组织的结盟及关系 ） 、 防务、边界（如果科索沃想加入阿尔巴尼亚的话）以及处理科索沃境内塞尔维亚少数民族的问题。", "index": 1600}
{"en": "As a result, Kosovo and Serbia would constitute two distinct international subjects, bound by a confederation hinging on a common decision-making body.", "zh": "其结果是，科索沃和塞尔维亚将组成两个不同的国际主体，捆绑在由一个共同决策机构将其连接起来的邦联体下。", "index": 1601}
{"en": "Of course, this confederation would be asymmetrical, because the Serbian government’s sovereignty over the rest of Serbia would remain intact and unlimited, whereas the Kosovar government’s “sovereignty” over Kosovo would be restrained.", "zh": "当然，这个同盟体是不对称的，因为塞尔维亚政府对塞尔维亚其他部分的主权不会受到影响和限制，而科索沃政府对科索沃的“主权”会受到约束。", "index": 1602}
{"en": "To avoid one of the two parties getting the upper hand and imposing arbitrary decisions, the common decision-making body should consist of four Serbian delegates, two Kosovar delegates, and three representatives of the EU, thus requiring both sides to gain the support of the European delegates.", "zh": "为避免两方的任何一方占据上风而强行通过专横的决定，这个共同决策机构将由四名来自塞尔维亚的代表、两名来自科索沃的代表和三名来自欧盟的代表组成，这样就需要两方都要获得欧盟代表的支持。", "index": 1603}
{"en": "In addition, the EU should create a small but effective military force (say, 5,000 troops) to back up the common body’s decisions.", "zh": "此外，欧盟应该建立一支小但却有效的军事力量（比如说，5000人的部队）来支持共同决策机构所做出的决定。", "index": 1604}
{"en": "As with any compromise, the contending parties would both gain and lose from this arrangement.", "zh": "像任何妥协一样，参与的各方在这一安排中都会有所得也有所失。", "index": 1605}
{"en": "Serbia would save face, and would continue to have a say on crucial matters concerning Kosovo, including the treatment of the Serbian minority.", "zh": "塞尔维亚会保全脸面，并且将继续对有关科索沃的重大问题、包括科索沃的塞尔维亚少数民族的问题拥有话语权。", "index": 1606}
{"en": "Kosovo would acquire limited independence, with its status rising from a province of a sovereign state to an international subject capable of entering into certain agreements with other states and even joining the UN.", "zh": "科索沃会获得有限的独立，它的地位将从一个主权国家的省上升到一个能够与其他国家签署某种协定、甚至加入联合国的国际主体。", "index": 1607}
{"en": "The EU would benefit as well, by contributing to the stabilization of a highly volatile area.", "zh": "通过给一个高度动荡的地区注入稳定，欧盟也会同样从中受益。", "index": 1608}
{"en": "Subsequently, the EU would monitor Kosovo and prevent any dispute that might turn violent.", "zh": "其结果是，欧盟将会监管科索沃，并且防止任何可能会引发暴乱的争端发生。", "index": 1609}
{"en": "A final advantage of this solution is that it would be temporary.", "zh": "这一解决方案的最后一点好处是它会是临时性的。", "index": 1610}
{"en": "Historically, confederations sooner or later either become federations (as occurred in the US, Germany, and Switzerland) or, pushed by centrifugal forces, split up (as with the United Arab Republic, established in 1958, which split three years later into Egypt and Syria).", "zh": "在历史上，邦联早晚都会变成联邦（就像在美国、德国和瑞士发生的那样 ） ， 或者在离心力的推动下，分裂开（就像1958年建立的阿拉伯联合共和国，它在三年后分裂成了埃及和叙利亚 ） 。", "index": 1611}
{"en": "The confederation I advocate would thus constitute an intermediate stage (lasting five or ten years), at the end of which Kosovo is likely to become fully independent.", "zh": "我所提倡的这个邦联因此将是一个中间步骤（延续5到10年时间 ） ， 在这一阶段最后科索沃可能会完全独立。", "index": 1612}
{"en": "Delaying a final solution in this way would provide time to verify Kosovo’s prospects of joining the EU and thus eventually sharing “sovereign authority” with other independent states, which could deflate Kosovars’ dangerously robust nationalistic demands.", "zh": "以这种方式延后一个最终的解决方案可以为验证科索沃加入欧盟的前景从而最终享有与其他独立国家同等的“主权权力”提供时间，也可以给科索沃危险的高涨的建立国家的要求降降温。", "index": 1613}
{"en": "A Cool Calculus of Global Warming", "zh": "全球变暖的成本计算", "index": 1614}
{"en": "The British government recently issued the most comprehensive study to date of the economic costs and risks of global warming, and of measures that might reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in the hope of averting some of the direst consequences.", "zh": "英国政府最近发布了迄今为止关于全球变暖的经济成本和风险最为全面的研究报告，并提出了可能减少温室气体排放的措施，希望藉此避免一些最可怕的后果。", "index": 1615}
{"en": "Written under the leadership of Sir Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics, who succeeded me as Chief Economist of the World Bank, the report makes clear that the question is no longer whether we can afford to do anything about global warming, but whether we can afford not to.", "zh": "这份报告在继任世界银行首席经济学家的，伦敦经济学院尼古拉斯▪斯特恩爵士的主持下完成。 它明确指出问题的关键不在于我们是否能够负担得起应对全球变暖的措施，而在于我们是否能够承受无所作为的后果。", "index": 1616}
{"en": "The report proposes an agenda whose cost would be equivalent to just 1% of annual consumption, but would save the world risk equivalent costs that are five times greater.", "zh": "该报告提出的计划其成本只等于年消费的1 % ， 但却能为世界节省5倍的风险等价成本。", "index": 1617}
{"en": "The reported costs of global warming are higher than in earlier studies because it takes into account the mounting evidence that the process of global warming is highly complex and non-linear, with a non-negligible chance that it may proceed much faster than had previously been thought and that the extent of warming may be much greater than had previously been thought.", "zh": "所报告的全球变暖成本比早先的研究中提出的要高，那是因为它将越来越多的新证据考虑在内，比如全球变暖是一个高度复杂且非线性的过程。 一种不可忽视的可能性是它发生的速度比我们先前想象的要快，而且变暖的程度也比我们先前想象的要高。", "index": 1618}
{"en": "Indeed, the study may actually significantly underestimate the costs: for instance, climate change may lead to more weather variability, a possible disappearance or major shift of the Gulf Stream – of particular concern to Europe – and a flourishing of disease.", "zh": "的确，这项研究实际上很可能还大大低估了相关成本：例如，气候变化会引起天气的更大可变性，可能造成墨西哥湾暖流的变化消失—欧洲特别担心的问题—并引发大量的疾病。", "index": 1619}
{"en": "When I served in 1995 on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific group that periodically assesses the science of global warming, there was overwhelming evidence that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had increased markedly since the beginning of the industrial revolution, that human activity had contributed significantly to those increases, and that they would have profound effects on climate and sea levels.", "zh": "当我在1995年任职于“政府间气候变化专门委员会 ” （ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ） ， 这个定期对全球变暖的科学研究进行评估的科学机构时，有令人震惊的证据表明温室气体在大气中的集中程度自工业革命开始已经显著增加。 还有证据表明人类活动在很大程度上造成了这种集中。", "index": 1620}
{"en": "But few saw, for instance, the Artic ice cap melting as rapidly as now seems to be the case.", "zh": "温室气体集中度的增加会对气候和海平面产生强烈的影响。 但几乎没有人认识到北极冰盖以现在的速度融化也与此有关。", "index": 1621}
{"en": "Still, some suggest that because we are not certain about how bad global warming will be, we should do little or nothing.", "zh": "可仍然有人建议说由于还不清楚全球变暖的情况究竟有多严重，我们应该静观其变甚至无所作为。", "index": 1622}
{"en": "To me, uncertainty should make us act more resolutely today, not less.", "zh": "在我看来，不确定性应该使我们今天更坚定地采取行动。", "index": 1623}
{"en": "As one scientist friend puts it: if you are driving on a mountain road, approaching a cliff, in a car whose brakes may fail, and a fog bank rolls in, should you drive more or less cautiously?", "zh": "正如我的一个科学家朋友所说：如果你在一条山路上开车，驶向一处悬崖，而汽车的制动系统可能有问题，又正逢山雾弥漫，你应该开得更谨慎还是更随意呢？", "index": 1624}
{"en": "Global warming is one of those rare instances where the scientific community is more fearful of what may be happening than the population at large.", "zh": "全球变暖是少数几个令科学界比令大众更担心的问题。", "index": 1625}
{"en": "Scientists have glimpsed what the future may portend.", "zh": "科学家们已经窥见了未来。", "index": 1626}
{"en": "As the Stern report points out, as usual, the poor are the most vulnerable.", "zh": "正如斯特恩的报告中所指出，和很多情况下一样穷国是最脆弱的。", "index": 1627}
{"en": "A third of Bangladesh will be underwater by the end of this century.", "zh": "到本世纪末孟加拉国三分之一的国土会被海水淹没。", "index": 1628}
{"en": "The Maldives and a host of Pacific Island states will disappear: our twenty-first-century Atlantis.", "zh": "马尔代夫和一些太平洋岛国会消失：成为我们二十一世纪的亚特兰蒂斯。", "index": 1629}
{"en": "To an economist, the problem is obvious: polluters are not paying the full costs of the damage they cause.", "zh": "对于一位经济学家而言，问题是明显的：污染的制造者们没有为自己造成的破坏完全买单。", "index": 1630}
{"en": "Pollution is a global externality of enormous proportions.", "zh": "污染是一项比例巨大的全球性外部因素。", "index": 1631}
{"en": "The advanced countries might mean Bangladesh and the disappearing island states no harm, but no war could be more devastating.", "zh": "发达国家可能并非有意危害孟加拉国和那些正在消失的岛国，但即便是战争也没有这样的破坏力。", "index": 1632}
{"en": "A global externality can best be dealt with by a globally agreed tax rate.", "zh": "应对一项全球性外部因素的最佳方式是通过一个全球认同的税率。", "index": 1633}
{"en": "This does not mean an increase in overall taxation, but simply a substitution in each country of a pollution (carbon) tax for some current taxes.", "zh": "这并不是意味着总体税收的增加，而仅仅是在每一个国家以一项污染（碳）税取代现有的某些税种。", "index": 1634}
{"en": "It makes much more sense to tax things that are bad, like pollution, than things that are good, like savings and work.", "zh": "对污染这样的不良现象征税比对储蓄和工作等良好的事物征税更有道理。", "index": 1635}
{"en": "Although President George W. Bush says he believes in markets, in this case he has called for voluntary action.", "zh": "虽然布什总统声称他相信市场的作用，但在这一问题上他还是呼吁自发的行动。", "index": 1636}
{"en": "But it makes far more sense to use the force of markets – the power of incentives – than to rely on goodwill, especially when it comes to oil companies that regard their sole objective as maximizing profits, regardless of the cost to others.", "zh": "但更为明智的做法的利用市场的力量—激励机制的力量—而不是依靠善意，特别是当情况涉及那些将利益最大化作为唯一目标而不顾其行为对他人的影响的石油公司。", "index": 1637}
{"en": "Exxon has reportedly been funding so-called think tanks to undermine confidence in the science of global warming, just as the tobacco industry funded “research” to question the validity of statistical findings showing the link between smoking and cancer.", "zh": "据报道埃克森公司对一些所谓的“智库”提供支持以削弱公众对全球变暖的科学的信心，正如烟草工业资助质疑吸烟与癌症之间的联系的“研究”一样。", "index": 1638}
{"en": "Some companies even seem to celebrate the melting of the polar ice cap, because it will reduce the cost of extracting the oil that lies beneath the Arctic Ocean.", "zh": "有些公司甚至似乎在庆祝极地冰盖的融化，因为这会降低它们在北冰洋开采石油的成本��", "index": 1639}
{"en": "The good news is that there are many ways by which improved incentives could reduce emissions – partly by eliminating the myriad of subsidies for inefficient usages.", "zh": "好消息是我们有很多办法可以通过改善后的激励机制减少（温室气体的）排放—其中一个办法是取消对低效使用能源的种种补贴。", "index": 1640}
{"en": "The US subsidizes corn-based ethanol, and imposes tariffs on sugar-based ethanol; hidden in the tax code are billions of dollars of subsidies to the oil and gas industries.", "zh": "美国对用玉米为原料制备的乙醇提供补贴，而却对以糖为原料的乙醇征收关税，被这一税则掩盖的是对石油和天然气工业的巨额补贴。", "index": 1641}
{"en": "Most importantly, price signals that show the true social costs of energy derived from fossil fuels will encourage innovation and conservation.", "zh": "最为重要的是，显示来自化石燃料的能源所造成的真实成本的价格信号会鼓励创新和节能。", "index": 1642}
{"en": "Small changes in practices, when replicated by hundreds of millions of people, can make an enormous difference.", "zh": "日常行为的小小改变如果被成千上万的人实践就能扭转局面。", "index": 1643}
{"en": "For example, simply changing the color of roofs in warm climates to reflect sunlight or planting trees around houses can lead to great savings on energy used for air conditioning.", "zh": "例如，仅仅改变气候温暖的地区的房屋顶部颜色以反射阳光，或在房屋周围植树就能实现空调耗能的大量节省。", "index": 1644}
{"en": "We have but one planet, and should treasure it.", "zh": "我们只有一个地球，我们应该珍爱它。", "index": 1645}
{"en": "Global warming is a risk that we simply cannot afford to ignore anymore.", "zh": "全球变暖是一个我们无论如何都不能再忽视的风险。", "index": 1646}
{"en": "A Cool Head for the Hottest Issues", "zh": "每临大事有静气", "index": 1647}
{"en": "LONDON – Reading Barack Obama’s Dreams from My Father, the US president’s beautifully written reflections on his early life and identity, most people are struck by his cool and intellectual approach.", "zh": "发自伦敦 — — 当读到《我父亲的梦想》这本美国总统奥巴马用优美的文笔叙述自己早年生活以及个人身份定位的自传时，许多人都会惊讶于他那种冷静而理智的做事方式。", "index": 1648}
{"en": "This is not to say that he is unemotional.", "zh": "但这并不是说奥巴马就是个毫无感情的人。", "index": 1649}
{"en": "Obama can rage and weep.", "zh": "他这个人可以表现得狂野暴躁，有时也会软弱无力。", "index": 1650}
{"en": "But he rarely seems to act on the basis of raw sentiment or instinctive prejudice.", "zh": "但奥巴马似乎很少由着自己不加掩饰的情感或者本能的偏见行事。", "index": 1651}
{"en": "Pragmatic and highly intelligent, sooner or later every issue receives the full attention of his forensic curiosity.", "zh": "得益于他的务实和睿智，所有事物迟早都会被奥巴马仔细研究和审视。", "index": 1652}
{"en": "Recalling Hillary Clinton’s famous Democratic primary television advertisement, Obama, it turns out, is exactly the sort of president that most of us would want to have in the post for that 3 a.m. phone call about an international crisis.", "zh": "再回想到希拉里·克林顿在民主党总统初选时发布的著名电视广告，每个人都会毫不犹豫地认为奥巴马就是他们所期望的那个能在凌晨3点钟拿起电话处理国际危机的总统。", "index": 1653}
{"en": "He would not be afraid to act, but he would be prepared to think first.", "zh": "在行动面前他从不缩手缩脚，但在此之前，他必会三思。", "index": 1654}
{"en": "I do not think, therefore, that Obama will be too vexed by some of the criticism he faces at the end of his first year in office, though he will undoubtedly grimace at the defeat of the Democratic candidate in the special election in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s old seat.", "zh": "因此我觉得奥巴马大概也不会被自己第一任任期即将结束时所面临的种种批评所困扰，虽然他肯定会对马萨诸塞州因泰德·肯尼迪参议员过世而举行的特别选举中民主党候选人的落马而感到有点恼火。", "index": 1655}
{"en": "Obama was praised extravagantly a year ago; 12 months on, the criticism is over the top, too.", "zh": "一年之前，这位总统承受了过度的赞誉；如今12个月过去了，他所背负的批评自然也会登峰造极。", "index": 1656}
{"en": "Obama inherited a terrible legacy – recession, financial meltdown, Iraq, Afghanistan. He has not solved all of these problems.", "zh": "奥巴马继承的是一笔非常糟糕的遗产 — — 经济衰退，财政崩溃，伊拉克，还有阿富汗。", "index": 1657}
{"en": "But it is difficult to see any really bad mistakes, except perhaps allowing himself to be pushed around by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and giving China the impression that he was prepared for a bilateral relationship entirely on China’s terms.", "zh": "他还未能解决上述所有问题，然而除了允许自己任由以色列总理内塔尼亚胡摆布，以及令中国人相信他正在照中国的意思构建一个新的中美双边关系之外，似乎也没有出什么大的纰漏。", "index": 1658}
{"en": "That seems to be changing now.", "zh": "但事情如今也有了转机。", "index": 1659}
{"en": "Obama may have come to understand that when you are the leader of the world’s only superpower, you need to be feared just a little if you are to be respected.", "zh": "奥巴马可能会意识到，当自己是世界唯一超级大国的领袖时，如果想得到人们的尊敬，就得至少要让别人有点害怕你。", "index": 1660}
{"en": "The left in America criticizes Obama for not turning the economy around already.", "zh": "美国左派批评奥巴马至今没有令经济完全复苏。", "index": 1661}
{"en": "The right angrily denounces him as a crypto-communist because he wants every American to have health care.", "zh": "右派则愤怒地宣称他是个共党地下党员，因为他试图令每个美国人都享受医疗保险。", "index": 1662}
{"en": "With a dispassionate eye on the long game, what will the president himself be thinking?", "zh": "但不知道这位用平和的心态去看待这个漫长过程的总统，自己又在琢磨些什么呢？", "index": 1663}
{"en": "One issue that Obama is certain to have in his sights is a problem that shadowed the world for years.", "zh": "对此，奥巴马肯定会考虑的一个问题就是那个笼罩了世界多年的阴影。", "index": 1664}
{"en": "When I was growing up in the 1950’s and 1960’s, world peace was based on the nuclear standoff between the US and the Soviet Union.", "zh": "在我成长的那个1950~1960年代，世界和平是构筑在美苏之间核力量的均衡之上的。", "index": 1665}
{"en": "The main strategic assessment on both sides of the Berlin Wall was that if either side made a wrong move, all of us might end up consumed in the flames of a nuclear holocaust.", "zh": "柏林墙对面双方的主要战略形势评估就是如果任何一方走错了一步，那么我们所有人都会在一场核浩劫中化为灰烬。", "index": 1666}
{"en": "This was called, in the geostrategic jargon of the day, “mutually assured destruction,” or MAD. The acronym was entirely appropriate.", "zh": "在当时干地缘政治这行的人口中，这叫“保证互相毁灭 ” （ Mutually Assured Destruction，亦称“共同毁灭原则 ” ） ， “ MAD(癫狂 ) ” 这个缩写堪称神来之笔。", "index": 1667}
{"en": "We have forgotten those days.", "zh": "如今人们已经淡忘了那些年月。", "index": 1668}
{"en": "Yet there are still 23,000 nuclear warheads on our planet, with the explosive power of 150,000 Hiroshima bombs.", "zh": "但这个星球上依然有2万3千枚核弹头，破坏力相当于15万枚广岛原子弹。", "index": 1669}
{"en": "Terrorist groups would undoubtedly like to get their hands on one.", "zh": "而那些恐怖组织也肯定很想搞到其中的一两枚。", "index": 1670}
{"en": "In all, there are eight nuclear-weapon states – the US, Russia, Britain, France, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan.", "zh": "世界上总共有8个核武国家 — — 美、俄、英、法、中，还有印巴两国以及以色列。", "index": 1671}
{"en": "North Korea may also have a few bombs. Iran is believed by many to be trying to develop one.", "zh": "朝鲜可能也有几枚原子弹，很多人也相信伊朗正在努力发展核武器。", "index": 1672}
{"en": "Other states, which have their own civil nuclear capacity, have the potential to develop a weapon. The number of countries in this category is bound to increase as the number of nuclear power reactors doubles over the next 20 years.", "zh": "其它拥有民用核技术的国家也有制造原子弹的潜力，而这些国家正计划在未来20年内将核反应堆的数量增加一倍。", "index": 1673}
{"en": "The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has contained the number of nuclear states.", "zh": "《核不扩散条约》文本中列明的核国家数目已经过时。", "index": 1674}
{"en": "A conference is to be held in May to renew and review it.", "zh": "因此将在今年五月召开一个会议对条约重新进行审议和修订。", "index": 1675}
{"en": "Obama clearly recognizes that the NPT needs to be strengthened in order to prevent countries from turning their civil nuclear-power capacity into weapons.", "zh": "奥巴马清楚地明白到必须加强这一条约，否则就难以阻止那些拥有民用核技术的国家将自己的科技转化为杀人武器。", "index": 1676}
{"en": "But Obama also knows that if the existing nuclear states want others to accept tougher restrictions, they will have to cut back their nuclear arsenals.", "zh": "但奥巴马也同时意识到，如果现有的核武国家希望其他国家接受更严格的管制，他们就必须削减自己的核武器数量。", "index": 1677}
{"en": "This is principally an issue for the US and Russia, which possess 95% of the world’s nuclear weapons.", "zh": "而这主要是美俄两家的事情，因为两国手中握有占全世界总量95%的核弹头。", "index": 1678}
{"en": "In addition, it would help if the US could take a strong lead by ratifying the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.", "zh": "此外，如果美国能批��《全面禁止核试验条约》的话，那么将起到一个强有力的示范作用。", "index": 1679}
{"en": "The nuclear issue is one of the biggest items on the Obama agenda. How it is handled will help to define his presidency.", "zh": "核问题是奥巴马众多议程中的其中一个重中之重。", "index": 1680}
{"en": "Even before the talking gets serious in May, there will be the question of Iran to sort out.", "zh": "而如何处理这个问题甚至将决定人们对他总统任期的评价。", "index": 1681}
{"en": "Iran says that it seeks no more than its own ability to produce nuclear power.", "zh": "即便在五月进行正式谈判之前，伊朗的问题也亟待解决。", "index": 1682}
{"en": "Disbelief grows with every revelation of secret Iranian facilities and plans, and with every refusal by Iran to negotiate safeguards that would allow for civil use while preventing weaponization.", "zh": "随着伊朗秘密核设施和反应堆的不断曝光，以及德黑兰当局不断拒绝旨在保证核设施民用而非武器化的国际监察，不信任的情绪正与日俱增.", "index": 1683}
{"en": "The US, the European Union, and Russia have tried to engage Iran on this issue, so far without success.", "zh": "在这个问题上，美国，欧盟和俄罗斯都在努力和伊朗接触，但至今都无功而返。", "index": 1684}
{"en": "China seems likely to block effective sanctions on Iran because of its close energy relationship with the country.", "zh": "中国似乎出于两国之间紧密的能源关系考虑，希望阻止对伊朗进行有效制裁。", "index": 1685}
{"en": "How China eventually handles this will profoundly affect its standing in the US and Europe.", "zh": "而中国最终如何处理这个问题将深远地影响其在美国和欧洲心目中的形象。", "index": 1686}
{"en": "These are going to be some of the major questions for Obama over the next year and more.", "zh": "而上述就几个是奥巴马在今后几年中所需要面对的主要问题。", "index": 1687}
{"en": "If he gets them right, he can forget about his short-term critics.", "zh": "如果处理得漂亮，他就能把这些短期内的批评置诸脑后。", "index": 1688}
{"en": "Fortunately, he is smart enough to know this.", "zh": "幸运的是，他足够聪明，肯定会意识到这一点。", "index": 1689}
{"en": "A Crisis in Full Flight", "zh": "大逃亡危机", "index": 1690}
{"en": "MUNICH – For a while, it looked as if the European Central Bank’s €1 trillion credit program to pump liquidity into Europe’s banking system had calmed global financial markets.", "zh": "慕尼黑—曾经有那么一段时间，看上去欧洲央行向欧洲银行系统注资1万亿欧元信用以提振流动性的计划已让金融市场平静下来。", "index": 1691}
{"en": "But now interest rates for Italian and Spanish government bonds are on the rise again, closing in on about 6%.", "zh": "但眼下，意大利和西班牙国债利率再次开始上升，正在向6%靠近。", "index": 1692}
{"en": "Of course, this may not be the breaking point beyond which the debt burden becomes unsustainable.", "zh": "当然，这或许并不是债务负担变得不可持续的临界点。", "index": 1693}
{"en": "After all, interest rates in Southern Europe were well above 10% in the decade before the euro was introduced.", "zh": "毕竟，南欧国家的利率在欧元引入前要大大高于10 % 。", "index": 1694}
{"en": "Even Germany at that time had to pay bondholders more than 6%.", "zh": "即使是德国，当时也必须向债权人支付6%的利息。", "index": 1695}
{"en": "Nevertheless, the markets are clearly signaling growing doubt about whether Spain and Italy will be willing to bear their debt burden.", "zh": "尽管如此，市场清楚地标明，对西班牙和意大利是否愿意承担债务负担的疑虑正在与日俱增。", "index": 1696}
{"en": "The main problem is Spain, where private and public-sector foreign debt is larger than that of Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Italy combined, and, as in Greece, is in the neighborhood of 100% of GDP (93% to be precise).", "zh": "主要的问题是西班牙，它的公私债务比希腊、葡萄牙、爱尔兰和意大利加起来还要多，已经达到了GDP的近100 % （ 确切地说，是93 % ） ，与希腊相仿佛。", "index": 1697}
{"en": "A quarter of the labor force and half of Spain’s youth are unemployed, reflecting the country’s loss of competitiveness in the wake of the real-estate bubble inflated by cheap euro credit in the pre-crisis period.", "zh": "四分之一的西班牙人口和一半年轻人没有工作，这表明危机之前由便宜的欧元信用引起的地产泡沫导致该国竞争力的流失。", "index": 1698}
{"en": "The current-account deficit remains at 3.5% of GDP, despite the recession-induced decline in imports, while economic contraction will cause Spain to miss its budget-deficit target again.", "zh": "经常项目赤字相当于GDP的3 % ， 这还是衰退导致进口大幅下降情况下的数字；而经济收缩将使西班牙再次脱离预算赤字目标。", "index": 1699}
{"en": "Moreover, Spain’s debt with the ECB’s TARGET settlement system rose by €55 billion ($72 billion) between February and March, because capital outflows of that amount had to be compensated.", "zh": "此外，今年2月—3月，西班牙在欧洲央行“目标 ” （ TARGET）清算系统中的债务增加了550亿欧元（相对于720亿美元 ） ， 这是因为大规模资本外流需要获得补偿。", "index": 1700}
{"en": "Since July 2011, Spain’s TARGET debt has grown by €199 billion.", "zh": "2011年7月以来，西班牙的“目标”系统债务增加了1990亿欧元。", "index": 1701}
{"en": "Capital is in full flight, more than offsetting the inflows from 2008-2010.", "zh": "资本蜂拥而出，比2008—2010年的流入量还要多。", "index": 1702}
{"en": "The cumulative total since the beginning of the first crisis year (2008) means that Spain has financed its entire current-account deficit via the printing press.", "zh": "从危机爆发首年（2008）以来的累计总量看，西班牙的全部经常项目赤字都是通过印钞来融资的。", "index": 1703}
{"en": "The picture is little better in Italy, where the current-account balance has swung from a surplus of around 2% of GDP to a 3%-of-GDP deficit over the last ten years.", "zh": "意大利的情况要好一些，过去十年来经常项目收支在2%GDP盈余和3%GDP赤字之间波动。", "index": 1704}
{"en": "The country’s TARGET debt grew by €76 billion from February to March, with the total since July 2011 reaching €276 billion.", "zh": "今年2月—3月，意大利“目标”系统债务增加了760亿欧元，2011年7月以来的总额为2760亿欧元。", "index": 1705}
{"en": "Italy, too, is being drained of capital; in fact, the flight of investors accelerated after the ECB’s liquidity injection.", "zh": "意大利也面临着资本枯竭的问题；事实上，投资者的外逃加速了欧洲央行的流动性注入。", "index": 1706}
{"en": "It is now clear that the ECB itself has caused a large part of the capital flight from countries like Spain and Italy, because the cheap credit that it offered drove away private capital.", "zh": "现在看来，显然欧洲央行自身压实资本从西班牙和意大利等国大量外逃的一大原因，因为它所提供的廉价信用驱走了私人资本。", "index": 1707}
{"en": "The purpose of the ECB’s measures was to re-establish confidence and bring about a recovery of the inter-bank market.", "zh": "欧洲央行行动的初衷是重塑信心并让银行间市场复苏。", "index": 1708}
{"en": "In this, too, it has not really been successful, despite the huge amount of money that it put on the table.", "zh": "但这个目的同样没有达到，尽管它抛出了巨额资金。", "index": 1709}
{"en": "Indeed, now the French are looking wobbly.", "zh": "事实上，现在法国看上去也开始动摇了。", "index": 1710}
{"en": "As capital fled the country between July 2011 and January 2012, France’s TARGET debt increased by €95 billion.", "zh": "2011年7月至2012年1月，资本从法国逃出，该国“目标”系统债务增加了950亿欧元。", "index": 1711}
{"en": "France, too, has become uncompetitive, owing to the cheap credit brought by the euro in its initial years.", "zh": "使用欧元最初几年的便宜信用同样拖累了法国的竞争力。", "index": 1712}
{"en": "According to a recent study by Goldman Sachs, the country’s price level must drop by an estimated 20% vis-à-vis the euro average – that is, depreciate in real terms – if the economy is to regain competitiveness within the eurozone.", "zh": "高盛公司最新研究称，据估算，法国价格水平必须较欧元平均水平下跌20 % — —即实际贬值 — — 才能让法国重新获得欧元区内的竞争力。", "index": 1713}
{"en": "Italy will have to depreciate by 10-15%, and Spain by roughly 20%.", "zh": "意大利必须贬值10 % — 15 % ， 西班牙必须贬值约20 % 。", "index": 1714}
{"en": "While Greece and Portugal face the need for deflation totaling 30% and 35%, respectively, the figures for Spain and Italy are high enough to justify fears about the future development of the eurozone.", "zh": "希腊和葡萄牙所需贬值幅度分别为30%和35 % ， 但西班牙和意大利的数字之高已足以引起人们对欧元区未来的担忧。", "index": 1715}
{"en": "These imbalances can be redressed only with great effort, if at all, and only if one accepts a decade of stagnation.", "zh": "这些失衡唯有通过付出巨大努力才能消除，而且必须接受长达十年的停滞。", "index": 1716}
{"en": "For Greece and Portugal, staying in the eurozone will be a tight squeeze.", "zh": "对希腊和葡萄牙来说，留在欧元区内将是活受罪。", "index": 1717}
{"en": "There are many who would solve the problem by routing more and more cheap credit through public channels – bailout funds, eurobonds, or the ECB – from the eurozone’s healthy core to the troubled South.", "zh": "对许多人来说，解决问题之道就是通过公共渠道（援助基金、欧元债券或欧洲央行）由欧元区坚挺核心国向疲软南欧国提供更多更便宜的信用。", "index": 1718}
{"en": "But this would unfairly force savers and taxpayers in the core countries to provide capital to the South on terms to which they would never voluntarily agree.", "zh": "但这对核��国的储蓄者和纳税人是不公平的，他们向南欧提供资本，所能获得的回报太低，他们不会自愿接受。", "index": 1719}
{"en": "Already German, Dutch, and Finish savings amounting to €15,000, €17,000, and €21,000, respectively, per working person have been converted from marketable investments into mere equalization claims against the ECB.", "zh": "德国、荷兰和芬兰的工作者人均分别有15000、17000和21000欧元储蓄由可交易投资变成了一视同仁的欧洲央行债权。", "index": 1720}
{"en": "No one knows what these claims will be worth in the event of a eurozone breakup.", "zh": "如果欧元区崩溃，没人知道这笔债权能有多大价值。", "index": 1721}
{"en": "Above all, however, the permanent public provision of cheap credit would ultimately lead to a lingering infirmity, if not to Europe’s economic collapse, because the eurozone would become a central management system with state control over investment.", "zh": "不过，最大的问题是，廉价信用的持续注入最终会导致旷日持久的虚弱（如果欧洲经济部崩盘的话 ） ， 因为欧元区将沦为一个中央管理系统，而投资掌控权则在国家手里。", "index": 1722}
{"en": "Such systems cannot work, because they eliminate the capital market as the economic system’s main steering mechanism.", "zh": "这样一个系统是无法运作的，因为它剥夺了资本市场作为经济系统主要导航机制的地位。", "index": 1723}
{"en": "One cannot help but wonder how thoughtlessly Europe’s politicians have started down this slippery slope.", "zh": "留给人们的只能是无尽的迷惑：无脑的欧洲政客为什么会选择走这样一条黑路。", "index": 1724}
{"en": "A Crisis in Two Narratives", "zh": "一个危机，两种解读", "index": 1725}
{"en": "CHICAGO – With the world’s industrial democracies in crisis, two competing narratives of its sources – and appropriate remedies – are emerging.", "zh": "芝加哥—世界发达民主国家陷入了危机，关于什么是危机的源头以及如何补救，出现了两种相互对立的声音。", "index": 1726}
{"en": "The first, better-known diagnosis is that demand has collapsed because of high debt accumulated prior to the crisis.", "zh": "第一种为人所熟知的诊断是需求因为危机前积累的高债务而崩溃。", "index": 1727}
{"en": "Households (and countries) that were most prone to spend cannot borrow any more.", "zh": "最具支出倾向的家庭（以及国家）再也无法借到钱了。", "index": 1728}
{"en": "To revive growth, others must be encouraged to spend – governments that can still borrow should run larger deficits, and rock-bottom interest rates should discourage thrifty households from saving.", "zh": "为了重振增长，必须鼓励其他家庭和国家来支出 — — 仍然能够借钱的政府应该扩大赤字，同时极低的利率应该阻止节约的家庭继续储蓄。", "index": 1729}
{"en": "Under these circumstances, budgetary recklessness is a virtue, at least in the short term.", "zh": "这种观点认为，粗犷的预算是一种美德，至少在短期看是如此。", "index": 1730}
{"en": "In the medium term, once growth revives, debt can be paid down and the financial sector curbed so that it does not inflict another crisis on the world.", "zh": "从中期看，只要增长能够得到提振，债务就能活得偿付，而金融部门得到了抑制，因此不会在世界上掀起另一场危机。", "index": 1731}
{"en": "This narrative – the standard Keynesian line, modified for a debt crisis – is the one to which most government officials, central bankers, and Wall Street economists have subscribed, and needs little elaboration.", "zh": "这种观点是标准的凯恩斯主义，只是根据债务危机做了些许修正。 该观点受到了大部分政府官员、中央银行和华尔街经济学家的支持，已无需再赘述了。", "index": 1732}
{"en": "Its virtue is that it gives policymakers something clear to do, with promised returns that match the political cycle.", "zh": "其优点在于向决策者明确指出了行动方向，还给出了符合政治周期的预期回报。", "index": 1733}
{"en": "Unfortunately, despite past stimulus, growth is still tepid, and it is increasingly difficult to find sensible new spending that can pay off in the short run.", "zh": "不幸的是，尽管已经实施了刺激措施，但增长仍然疲软，而且，从短期看，要找到给力的新支出之源越来越困难了。", "index": 1734}
{"en": "Attention is therefore shifting to the second narrative, which suggests that the advanced economies’ fundamental capacity to grow by making useful things has been declining for decades, a trend that was masked by debt-fueled spending.", "zh": "于是，人们的目光开始转移到第二种观点。 这种观点认为，发达经济体通过生产有用的东西获得增长的基本能力下滑已经持续了数十年之久了，其特征便是用债务来支撑支出。", "index": 1735}
{"en": "More such spending will not return these countries to a sustainable growth path.", "zh": "更多的同类支出无法给这些国家带来可持续的增长。", "index": 1736}
{"en": "Instead, they must improve the environment for growth.", "zh": "相反，它们必须改善增长环境。", "index": 1737}
{"en": "The second narrative starts with the 1950’s and 1960’s, an era of rapid growth in the West and Japan.", "zh": "第二种观点的着眼点始于20世纪五六十年代，当时正是西方和日本的高速增长期。", "index": 1738}
{"en": "Several factors, including post-war reconstruction, the resurgence of trade after the protectionist 1930’s, the introduction of new technologies in power, transport, and communications across countries, and expansion of educational attainment, underpinned the long boom.", "zh": "几大因素 — — 包括战后重建、20世纪30年代保护主义风潮过去之后的贸易复兴、电力、运输和跨国通信方面的新技术，以及教育程度的改善 — — 推动了长期繁荣。", "index": 1739}
{"en": "But, as Tyler Cowen has argued in his book The Great Stagnation, once these “low-hanging fruit” were plucked, it became much harder to propel growth from the 1970’s onward.", "zh": "但是，泰勒·柯万（Tyler Cowen）在其《大停滞 》 （ The Great Stagnation）一书中指出，这些“低处的果实”被摘取殆尽后，进入20世纪70年代以来，提振增长就变得日益困难了。", "index": 1740}
{"en": "Meanwhile, as Wolfgang Streeck writes persuasively in New Left Review, democratic governments, facing what seemed, in the 1960’s, like an endless vista of innovation and growth, were quick to expand the welfare state.", "zh": "与此同时，沃尔夫冈·斯特里克（Wolfgang Streeck）在《新左翼评论 》 （ New Left Review）中雄辩地写道，民主政府在20世纪60年代面临着看似永远光明的创新和增长前景，因此大踏步地进入了福利国家的行列。", "index": 1741}
{"en": "But, when growth faltered, this meant that government spending expanded, even as its resources shrank.", "zh": "但是，当增长开始放缓时，这意味着政府支出的膨胀（尽管此时其创收资源出现了萎缩 ） 。", "index": 1742}
{"en": "For a while, central banks accommodated that spending.", "zh": "在一定的时间里，央行承担起了支出的重任。", "index": 1743}
{"en": "The resulting high inflation created widespread discontent, especially because little growth resulted.", "zh": "由此产生的高通胀引起了广泛的不满，特别是在增长不见提振的情况下。", "index": 1744}
{"en": "Faith in Keynesian stimulus diminished, though high inflation did reduce public-debt levels.", "zh": "人们对凯恩斯主义刺激的信任度下降了，尽管高通胀确实降低了公债水平。", "index": 1745}
{"en": "Central banks then began to focus on low and stable inflation as their primary objective, and became more independent from their political masters.", "zh": "此后，央行开始将稳定的低通胀作为其首要目标，并越来越独立于行政。", "index": 1746}
{"en": "But deficit spending by governments continued apace, and public debt as a share of GDP in industrial countries climbed steadily from the late 1970’s, this time without inflation to reduce its real value.", "zh": "但政府的赤字支出并没有放慢脚步，发达国家公债水平占GDP的比例从20世纪70年代末开始稳步攀升，这一次不再有通胀来帮它们拉低债务的真实价值了。", "index": 1747}
{"en": "Recognizing the need to find new sources of growth, towards the end of Jimmy Carter’s presidency, and then under Ronald Reagan, the United States deregulated industry and the financial sector, as did Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom.", "zh": "美国从吉米·卡特任期后半段和罗纳德·里根任期内开始认识到需要寻找新的增长源，并对产业和金融部门实施了去监管化，与此同时，撒切尔夫人在英国也采取了相似的动作。", "index": 1748}
{"en": "Productivity growth increased substantially in these countries over time, which persuaded Continental Europe to adopt reforms of its own, often pushed by the European Commission.", "zh": "多年来，这些国家的生产率有了显著提高，受此影响，欧洲大陆国家也采取了改革（大多由欧洲委员会推动 ） 。", "index": 1749}
{"en": "Yet even this growth was not enough, given previous governments’ generous promises of health care and pensions – promises made even less tenable by rising life expectancy and falling birth rates.", "zh": "但由于此前政府承诺了过于慷慨的医疗和养老承诺，如此增长仍旧显得力不从心，而预期寿命的增加和出生率的下降使得政府愈加不堪重负了。", "index": 1750}
{"en": "Public debt continued to grow.", "zh": "公债水平继续增加。", "index": 1751}
{"en": "And the incomes of the moderately educated middle class failed to benefit from deregulation-led growth (though it improved their lot as consumers).", "zh": "而教育程度适中的中产阶级在去监管化带来的增长中并没有获得好处（尽管作为消费者，他们获益良多 ） 。", "index": 1752}
{"en": "The most recent phase of the advanced economies’ frenzied search for growth took different forms.", "zh": "发达经济体疯狂寻找增长的最新阶段，各国可谓八仙过海各显神通。", "index": 1753}
{"en": "In some countries, most notably the US, a private-sector credit boom created jobs in low-skilled industries like construction, and precipitated a consumption boom as people borrowed against overvalued houses.", "zh": "在有的国家（以美国为甚 ） ， 私人部门的信贷繁荣为低技能行业（如建筑业）带来了大量工作岗位，而居民则通过以价值高估的房地产作抵押，借钱来维持消费繁荣。", "index": 1754}
{"en": "In other countries, like Greece, as well as under regional administrations in Italy and Spain, a government-led hiring spree created secure jobs for the moderately educated.", "zh": "在其他国家（如希腊以及西班牙和意大利的部分地区 ） ， 政府领导的招工潮为教育程度不高者提供了就业保障。", "index": 1755}
{"en": "In this “fundamental” narrative, the advanced countries’ pre-crisis GDP was unsustainable, bolstered by borrowing and unproductive make-work jobs.", "zh": "在这一“基本面”观点看来，发达国家的危机前GDP增长是不可持续的，是用借贷和非生产性冗余工作岗位堆出来的。", "index": 1756}
{"en": "More borrowed growth – the Keynesian formula – may create the illusion of normalcy, and may be useful in the immediate aftermath of a deep crisis to calm a panic, but it is no solution to a fundamental growth problem.", "zh": "“借”来的繁荣 — — 即凯恩斯模式 — — 可以造成一种常态幻觉，在深度危机袭来后可以起到平息恐慌的作用，但绝非基本增长问题的解决办法。", "index": 1757}
{"en": "If this diagnosis is correct, advanced countries need to focus on reviving innovation and productivity growth over the medium term, and on realigning welfare promises with revenue capacity, while alleviating the pain of the truly destitute in the short run.", "zh": "如果这一诊断正确，那么发达国家就需要将注意力集中于重塑中期创新和生产率增长，同时根据收入能力重新定义福利承诺，在短期则致力于减轻真正赤贫者的痛苦。", "index": 1758}
{"en": "For example, Southern Europe’s growth potential may consist in deregulating service sectors and reducing employment protection to spur creation of more private-sector jobs for retrenched government workers and unemployed youth.", "zh": "比如，南欧国家的增长潜力或许在于放松服务部门的监管、减少就业保护以为丢掉工作的政府员工和失业青年创造更多的私人部门工作岗位。", "index": 1759}
{"en": "In the US, the imperative is to improve the match between potential jobs and worker skills.", "zh": "在美国，当务之急是改善潜在工作岗位和工人技能之间的匹配度。", "index": 1760}
{"en": "People understand better than the government what they need and are acting accordingly.", "zh": "个人要比政府更清楚知道他们需要什么，并据此行动。", "index": 1761}
{"en": "Many women, for example, are leaving low-paying jobs to acquire skills that will open doors to higher-paying positions.", "zh": "比如，大量妇女正在脱离低收入岗位，以便获得更好的技能叩开高收入职位之门。", "index": 1762}
{"en": "Too little government attention has been focused on such issues, partly because payoffs occur beyond electoral horizons, and partly because the effectiveness of government programs has been mixed.", "zh": "政府在这些方面的关注度远远不够，部分是因为其好处要在在任者任期结束后才会显现，也有部分是因为政府计划的效率不够高。", "index": 1763}
{"en": "Tax reform, however, can provide spur retraining and maintain incentives to work, even while fixing gaping fiscal holes.", "zh": "税收改革可以刺激人们参与再培训，也可以激励人们继续工作，且不耽误填补财政窟窿。", "index": 1764}
{"en": "Three powerful forces, one hopes, will help to create more productive jobs in the future: better use of information and communications technology (and new ways to make it pay), lower-cost energy as alternative sources are harnessed, and sharply rising demand in emerging markets for higher-value-added goods.", "zh": "有三大力量有助于在未来创造更多的生产性岗位：对信息和通讯技术的更好的使用（以及新的收费方式 ） 、 随着替代资源的开发而实现的低成本能源，以及新兴市场快速增长的对高附加值产品的需求。", "index": 1765}
{"en": "The advanced countries have a choice.", "zh": "发达国家有的选择。", "index": 1766}
{"en": "They can act as if all is well, except that their consumers are in a funk, and that “animal spirits” must be revived through stimulus.", "zh": "它们可以若无其事（尽管消费者如同惊弓之鸟 ， “ 动物精神”也需要刺激来予以提振 ） 。", "index": 1767}
{"en": "Or they can treat the crisis as a wake-up call to fix what debt has papered over in the last few decades.", "zh": "它们也可以将此次危机视为修正过去数十年来产生债务的问题的契机。", "index": 1768}
{"en": "For better or worse, the narrative that persuades these countries’ governments and publics will determine their future – and that of the global economy.", "zh": "无论如何，政府和公众选择相信哪种观点将决定它们的未来 — — 以及全球经济的未来。", "index": 1769}
{"en": "Financing the Next Development Agenda", "zh": "为下一个发展日程融资", "index": 1770}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – As the 2015 target date for the Millennium Development Goals approaches, the United Nations is intensifying its efforts to foster debate about what comes next for promotion of development worldwide.", "zh": "华盛顿—随着千年发展目标2015年到期日的临近，联合国抓紧了关于下一轮促进全球发展措施的争论。", "index": 1771}
{"en": "The outcome of these discussions will shape policies and investment aimed at spurring GDP growth, strengthening human capital, and promoting more inclusive prosperity.", "zh": "这些讨论的结果将决定旨在刺激GDP增长、强化人力资本和促进更具包容性的繁荣的政策和投资。", "index": 1772}
{"en": "With the global population expected to reach nine billion people by 2050 – a significant proportion of whom will reside in developing or underdeveloped countries – the international community must improve access to education, health care, and employment opportunities worldwide.", "zh": "2050年，世界人口预计将达到90亿 — — 其中很大一部分将居住在发展中或欠发达国家 — — 国际社会必须改善全球教育、卫生和就业机会的普及。", "index": 1773}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the prospect of a rise in global temperature of more than 2°C (3.6°F) over pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (which would trigger global warming’s most damaging effects) calls for higher investment in sustainable urbanization, climate-smart agriculture, and social safety nets.", "zh": "与此同时，全球气温预计将在本世纪末较工业化前水平升高2℃以上（这将触发全球变暖最危险的效应）意味着需要增加可持续城市化、气候智能型农业和社会安全网的投资。", "index": 1774}
{"en": "Both factors challenge us to define, in the longer term, more sustainable patterns of production and consumption.", "zh": "两大因素对我们构成了挑战，从长期看，我们需要更加可持续的生产和消费模式。", "index": 1775}
{"en": "Governments, civil society, and the private sector must rise to the challenge, cooperating to find and implement creative solutions.", "zh": "政府、公民社会和私人部门必须应对这一挑战，合作寻找并实施创造性解决方案。", "index": 1776}
{"en": "But, first, they must anticipate the associated financing requirements, which will soon surpass the current capacities of governments and international donors, and take action now to activate new, reliable sources of financing.", "zh": "但是，首先，我们必须预计相关融资要求 — — 融资要求很快就会超过政府和国际赞助者当前的能力；同时，我们还必须现在就采取行动激活可靠地新融资源。", "index": 1777}
{"en": "To start, governments should design targeted, evidence-based policies and support the development of sound institutions.", "zh": "首先，政府应该设计基于证据的定向政策并支持可靠机构的发展。", "index": 1778}
{"en": "This would make government services more effective, while helping to catalyze additional development aid from traditional donors and mobilize private-sector resources.", "zh": "这将让政府服务更加有效，同时有助于刺激传统赞助者提高发展援助以及动员私人部门资金源。", "index": 1779}
{"en": "In many countries, there is considerable scope for domestic resource mobilization.", "zh": "在许多国家，国内资源动员空间相当大。", "index": 1780}
{"en": "Broadening the tax base, improving tax administration, and closing gaps in the value-added tax could make a significant difference in lower-income countries, where tax revenues account for only about 10-14% of GDP, compared to 20-30% of GDP in high-income countries.", "zh": "扩大税基、改善税制以及缩小增值税差异能让低收入国家发生翻天覆地的变化，在这类国家，税收收入只占GDP的10—14 % ， 而高收入国家占GDP的20—30 % 。", "index": 1781}
{"en": "More equitable taxation would have a positive impact on governance, another important tool for mobilizing domestic resources.", "zh": "更平等的税收能对治理产生积极效应，而治理是动员国内资源的又一重要工具。", "index": 1782}
{"en": "With improved corporate and public governance and clear transfer-pricing policies, resource-rich countries could shore up their capacity to negotiate fair contracts with extractive industries, balance revenues and expenditures over time, and manage their natural endowments more transparently.", "zh": "改善公司和公共治理、明确移定价政策能让资源富裕国获得与开采业谈判公平合同的能力，逐渐平衡收入和支出，并更透明地管理其自然资源禀赋。", "index": 1783}
{"en": "Progress in these areas would help governments to channel their spending more effectively toward those who would benefit the most.", "zh": "这些方面的进步有助于政府有效地将钱花在受益最大的人群上。", "index": 1784}
{"en": "For example, only 8% of the $409 billion spent on fossil-fuel subsidies in 2010 reached the poorest 20% of the population.", "zh": "比如，2010年所发放的4090亿美元化石燃料补助中只有8%送到了最贫困的20%人群手中。", "index": 1785}
{"en": "A targeted support program could increase substantially the efficiency of spending, freeing up resources for education, health, and poverty eradication.", "zh": "定向支持项目能极大地增加支出的效率，解放资源用于教育、卫生和减贫。", "index": 1786}
{"en": "Furthermore, promoting financial deepening and inclusiveness could accelerate private-sector growth, creating more opportunities.", "zh": "此外，促进金融深化和包容能加速私人部门增长，创造更多机会。", "index": 1787}
{"en": "Indeed, broader access to financial services would help the estimated 400 million micro, small, and medium-size enterprises in developing countries to prosper, while enabling the 2.5 billion people worldwide who currently lack access to such services to build their assets.", "zh": "事实上，金融服务的普及有助于发展中国家约4亿家（估计值）微型、小型和中型企业繁荣，同时让全世界25亿目前无法获得金融服务的人建立自己的资产。", "index": 1788}
{"en": "A deeper and more efficient financial sector would also reduce transaction costs and facilitate risk management.", "zh": "更深化、更高效的金融部门还能降低交易成本、有利于风险管理。", "index": 1789}
{"en": "Local-currency bond markets could help to develop domestic investor bases and mobilize domestic savings to support long-term investments.", "zh": "本币债券市场有助于发展国内投资者基础病动员国内储蓄支持长期投资。", "index": 1790}
{"en": "At the same time, the international community should work to improve the availability and effectiveness of official development assistance.", "zh": "与此同时，国际社会应该致力于改善官方发展援助（ODA）的普及型和效率。", "index": 1791}
{"en": "The ODA target of 0.7% of GDP – agreed in 2002 at the International Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey, Mexico – should motivate countries to increase their contributions.", "zh": "2002年墨西哥蒙特雷国际发展融资会议（International Conference on Financing for Development）为ODA设定了GDP的0.7%的目标值，这应该能够刺激各国增加各自的贡献力度。", "index": 1792}
{"en": "They can also take steps to make ODA more predictable from year to year.", "zh": "它们还可以采取措施逐年增加ODA的可预测性。", "index": 1793}
{"en": "Donors should structure aid to ensure that it supports sound national development policies and programs, rather than their own narrow interests.", "zh": "赞助者应该设计好援助结构，以保证支持优质国民发展政策和计划，而不是满足它们自身的狭隘利益。", "index": 1794}
{"en": "This is particularly relevant as emerging development partners, especially the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), offer new kinds of aid packages that incorporate investment and non-financial assistance.", "zh": "这一点随着新兴发展伙伴 — — 特别是金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非 ） — —提供结合了投资和非金融援助的新形式的援助方案而显得特别重要。", "index": 1795}
{"en": "Private charities, which have been instrumental in promoting innovation in fields such as health care, the environment, and education, could provide valuable insight into channeling aid more effectively.", "zh": "私人慈善机构 — — 它们一直是刺激卫生、环境和教育等领域创新的有力工具 — — 能提供关于如何更高效地使用援助的宝贵洞见。", "index": 1796}
{"en": "More generally, improving coordination among donors would help to maximize the impact of aid on the ground.", "zh": "更一般地，改善赞助者间的协调有助于援助项目影响的最大化。", "index": 1797}
{"en": "While ODA remains an important source of financing for fragile and very-low-income countries, it represents only 7% of net financial flows to developing countries, where foreign direct investment, remittances, long-term debt, and portfolio investment have a larger impact.", "zh": "ODA仍是脆弱的极低收入国家重要的融资源，但它仅占流向发展中国家的净金融流的7 % ， 外国直接投资、侨汇、长期债务和资产组合投资占比均高于ODA。", "index": 1798}
{"en": "Donors should leverage aid to “grow the pie” and to diversify financing sources for the world’s poorest countries by providing risk guarantees, innovative investment vehicles, debt syndication, and co-financing arrangements.", "zh": "赞助者应该利用援助“做大馅饼”并通过提供风险担保、创新性投资载体、债务承销团和共同融资安排实现世界最贫困国家融资源的多样化。", "index": 1799}
{"en": "Attracting even a fraction of the assets held by institutional investors, sovereign-wealth funds, and public pension funds could boost development finance substantially.", "zh": "吸引哪怕一小部分机构投资者、主权财富基金和公共养老基金所持资产也能够极大地提振发展融资。", "index": 1800}
{"en": "Diaspora populations are another major potential source of development financing.", "zh": "侨民是另一个发展融资的潜在主要来源。", "index": 1801}
{"en": "Reducing transfer costs, which average an estimated 9% of the value of transactions, would put more money into the hands of those who need it most.", "zh": "降低汇款成本 — — 据估计平均而言占交易价值的9 % — —将使更多的钱流向最需要它们的人的手中。", "index": 1802}
{"en": "Tailoring financial products for diaspora communities could attract resources for investment, while reinforcing migrants’ ties – economic and otherwise – to their home countries.", "zh": "为侨民社区量身定做金融产品能吸引投资源，同时加强移民与其祖国的经济和其他联系。", "index": 1803}
{"en": "Finally, the international community bears a special responsibility for delivering global public goods.", "zh": "最后，国际社会有实现全球公共品多样化的特殊责任。", "index": 1804}
{"en": "The responsibility to preserve the environment, stem the spread of communicable diseases, strengthen the international financial architecture, enhance developing-country participation in the global trading system, and facilitate the exchange of knowledge lies at the intersection of national development priorities and global interests.", "zh": "保护环境、阻止传染病传播、强化国际金融结构、促进发展中国家参与全球贸易体系以及增进知识交换的责任是国民发展优先项和全球利益的交汇点。", "index": 1805}
{"en": "Duty-free, quota-free access to OECD markets, complemented by simpler, more transparent rules of origin, would raise GDP by 1% in the least-developed countries, lifting millions out of poverty.", "zh": "免责、无限额地进入经合组织市场，并辅之以更简单、更透明的原产地规则能使最不发达国家GDP提高1 % ， 让千百万人摆脱平困。", "index": 1806}
{"en": "Investment in statistical capacity would help governments and businesses worldwide to make better policy decisions, based on a more accurate accounting of the associated costs and benefits.", "zh": "投资于统计能力有助于全球政府和企业更好地做出政策决策，让计量相关成本和收益更加正确。", "index": 1807}
{"en": "The challenge of the post-2015 development agenda lies in finding creative solutions to support prosperity, equality, and sustainability.", "zh": "2015年后的发展日程的挑战在于找出创造性解决方案支持繁荣、平等和可持续性。", "index": 1808}
{"en": "Together, governments, civil society, international organizations, and the private sector can improve the availability and quality of finance for development, and shape a better future for all.", "zh": "政府、公民社会、国际组织和私人部门齐心协力就能改善发展融资的普及和质量，为所有人带来更美好的未来。", "index": 1809}
{"en": "A Czech Moment", "zh": "捷克风光时刻", "index": 1810}
{"en": "PRAGUE – As I listened to what some Europeans were saying as my country prepared to take over the presidency of the European Union, I heard dim echoes of Neville Chamberlain’s infamous description of Czechoslovakia as “a faraway country of which we know little.”", "zh": "布拉格 - - 当捷克准备接手成为欧盟轮值主席国的时候，有些欧洲人议论我国。 我听到他们言论好像是张伯伦对捷克斯洛伐克声名狼藉评论的回音，那也就是，我们是“一个很少听说的穷乡僻壤国家 ” 。", "index": 1811}
{"en": "I suppose that Donald Rumsfeld’s misguided bid a few years ago to incite a divide between “new and old” Europe contributed to the re-emergence of that disdainful attitude.", "zh": "几年前，拉姆斯菲尔德想要把欧洲分出“新欧洲”和“老欧洲”实为不智，但是他的这一言论确重新体现了这一令人厌恶态度。", "index": 1812}
{"en": "The reality is that there is no such thing as “old and new” Europe, and there never was.", "zh": "实际上，世上根本就没有什么“新欧洲”和“老欧洲 ” ， 历史上从来就没有这回事。", "index": 1813}
{"en": "The break with communism and reunification of Europe is now almost two decades old.", "zh": "欧洲重新统一并且与共产主义决裂目前已经将近二十年时间。", "index": 1814}
{"en": "We Czechs are 100% European, and were even when the Iron Curtain cut us off from democratic Europe.", "zh": "我们捷克人是100%的欧洲人，而且在铁幕把我们从民主欧洲分裂的时代更为如此。", "index": 1815}
{"en": "Indeed, our pro-EU sentiments may be all the stronger because our membership in the Union, like our freedom, is so comparatively new.", "zh": "确实，随着加入欧盟以及刚刚获得自由，我们的亲欧盟情感更为强烈。", "index": 1816}
{"en": "So no one in Europe needs to fear that the Czech Republic has some nostalgic or idiosyncratic agenda that it wants to impose on the Union.", "zh": "所以，欧洲没有必要担心捷克共和国有什么怀旧或者怪异的议程来施加在欧盟头上。", "index": 1817}
{"en": "On the contrary, events have imposed an agenda on Europe that we cannot escape and for which solidarity – true union – will be needed.", "zh": "相反，国际大事确给欧洲施加了我们所无法逃避的议程。 对此，我们需要真正的欧洲团结。", "index": 1818}
{"en": "The primary, and most pressing, of the problems we face is the financial and economic crisis that is enveloping the EU.", "zh": "我们面临的主要、也是最为迫切的问题是正在席卷欧盟的金融和经济危机。", "index": 1819}
{"en": "Unfortunately, conditions across the Union will likely worsen before they begin to improve.", "zh": "不幸的是，整个欧盟的形势在转好之前还要继续变坏。", "index": 1820}
{"en": "The type of social unrest recently witnessed in Greece may spread, because the downturn is likely to take a disproportionate toll on Europe’s young people, who are seeking jobs at a time when hard-pressed European businesses will be able to offer them very few.", "zh": "最近在希腊发生的社会动乱可能蔓延，这是因为经济衰退对欧洲年轻人的影响可能更加严重。 这些找工作的年轻人正好赶上不景气的欧洲企业无法提供多少就业机会。", "index": 1821}
{"en": "It will fall to the Union, once again, to help transform despair into hope.", "zh": "这样，欧盟就要再次帮助把绝望转化为希望。", "index": 1822}
{"en": "We Czechs know something about this, as the wrenching economic transition that we underwent in the 1990’s taught us much about how the right policies can break the grip of hopelessness.", "zh": "我们捷克人对此有所了解，因为我们在九十年代经历了艰苦的经济转型，告诉了我们许多道理，也就是正确的政策可以打破绝望钳制。", "index": 1823}
{"en": "To contain today’s financial and economic crisis, Europe will also need to continue the cooperation that it has shown up to this point.", "zh": "欧洲为了遏制当今的金融和经济危机就必须继续进行迄今为止的合作。", "index": 1824}
{"en": "The very existence of our Union, and particularly of the euro, has already helped to prevent the competitive devaluations and beggar-thy-neighbor policies that ravaged Europe during the 1930’s – the last time the continent faced so brutal an economic downturn.", "zh": "二十世纪三十年代，欧洲大陆面临同样残酷的经济衰退。 如今，欧盟、特别是欧元的存在本身就已经防止了当时破坏欧洲的各国货币竞相贬值以及让邻国贫困的政策。", "index": 1825}
{"en": "But we cannot be complacent that the forces of national egoism will remain in check.", "zh": "但是我们并不能自满，认为各国民族自我观念会受到限制。", "index": 1826}
{"en": "For now, EU governments’ coordinated fiscal stimulus has deprived populists of their usual charge that the EU is indifferent to the fate of individuals.", "zh": "目前，欧盟各国政府协调财政刺激政策，民粹主义者通常指责欧盟对单个个人的命运无动于衷也就不攻自破。", "index": 1827}
{"en": "Even more policy coordination will be needed both to confront the crisis and to re-establish EU norms once the storm clouds begin to dissipate.", "zh": "为了应对危机以及在暴风开始消失的时候重新建立欧盟规则，人们就需要更多的政策协调。", "index": 1828}
{"en": "Although it is right that the Stability and Growth Pact has become more flexible in these extraordinary times, its rules did secure a successful first decade for the euro.", "zh": "欧洲稳定和增长公约在这一特殊时期变得更为灵活，这是不假。 但是这一公约规则确保了欧元取得第一个十年的成功。", "index": 1829}
{"en": "These rules must eventually be restored intact if Europe is to return to the path of sustainable growth, and a consensus will need to be forged now to make that happen.", "zh": "欧洲要想回到可持续增长的道路上来，这些规则就必须最终得以恢复，而且人们必须就如何促成这一局面达成一致意见。", "index": 1830}
{"en": "The second key challenge that we will face during our European presidency is that of Russia.", "zh": "我们担任欧盟轮值主席国期间将要面临的第二个关键挑战就是俄国。", "index": 1831}
{"en": "A new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the EU and the Russian Federation must be negotiated.", "zh": "我们必须谈判制定一项欧盟与俄罗斯联邦之间新的伙伴关系和合作协议。", "index": 1832}
{"en": "Those negotiations should have begun seriously last year, but the war in Georgia intervened to put them on hold.", "zh": "谈判原本应该在去年就认真开始，但是格鲁吉亚战事却把这一工作陷于停顿。", "index": 1833}
{"en": "Now those talks have resumed, but the background to the negotiations has changed dramatically.", "zh": "现在这些谈判已经恢复，但是谈判的背景发生了剧烈的变化。", "index": 1834}
{"en": "Russia’s economy is now in far worse shape than that of EU members.", "zh": "俄国经济现在比欧盟国家的要糟糕许多。", "index": 1835}
{"en": "The collapse of world oil and gas prices has wounded Russia’s budget, and lack of investment in the country’s energy sector over the years is now causing the declining production that economists have long predicted.", "zh": "国际石油和天然气价格大跌损害了俄国的预算，而且俄国能源部门多年来投资不足正在造成经济学家们长久以来就预言的产量下降。", "index": 1836}
{"en": "Until now, Russia has cared less about a new PCA than the EU, because two-thirds of Russia’s exports to the Union comprise natural resources, which bring in cash even without the strong rules that a PCA provides.", "zh": "目前为止，俄国对协议的关心并不像欧盟那样强烈，因为俄国向欧盟出口的三分之二是自然资源。 因此，即使没有协议规定的硬性条款也能够带来现金收入。", "index": 1837}
{"en": "Given the stark changes in economic conditions, however, it is now in Russia’s national interest to reassure international markets that it is a reliable place to do business, for which a new PCA would serve as an ideal signal.", "zh": "但是，由于经济形势发生了剧烈变化，现在俄国向国际市场重新保证其是个经商的可靠地方符合自身的利益，而新的协议就是一个理想的信号。", "index": 1838}
{"en": "Moreover, without a new PCA, individual European countries may feel it necessary to seek even more bilateral agreements with Russia.", "zh": "而且，没有新的协议，欧洲各国就会感到有必要与俄国签订更多的双边协议。", "index": 1839}
{"en": "Indeed, many EU members have been in a race with each other to see who will be Russia’s closest friend in the Union.", "zh": "确实，许多欧盟成员国已经开展竞赛，看看谁成为欧盟中与俄国最为亲近的朋友。", "index": 1840}
{"en": "But the bilateral deals that have emerged from this race sometimes come at the expense of other Union members, and may unbalance relations within the Union as a whole.  Only a rules-based EU framework can provide a firm foundation for both bilateral and Union-wide relations with Russia.", "zh": "但是这一竞赛带来的双边协议有时候会损害其他欧盟成员国，而且可能破坏整个欧盟的内部平衡。 只有建立在规则基础上的欧盟框架才能够为对各国和整个欧盟对俄关系提供坚实的基础。", "index": 1841}
{"en": "Europe’s main strength in foreign policy is not its commitment to a rules-based multilateralism, important as that undoubtedly is, but its unity.", "zh": "尽管多边主义毫无疑问非常重要，但是欧洲外交的主要力量并不是其专心致志建立规则基础之上的多边主义，而是团结。", "index": 1842}
{"en": "When the Georgia crisis erupted, Europe united around a single position on Russia’s withdrawal.", "zh": "格鲁吉亚危机爆发之时，欧洲团结一致，要求俄国撤军。", "index": 1843}
{"en": "It is the Czech Republic’s task, and that of the Swedish EU presidency that will follow our own, to maintain this unity as the PCA negotiations move forward.", "zh": "捷克共和国的任务，以及随后担任主席国的瑞典的任务就是在协议谈判的时候维持团结。", "index": 1844}
{"en": "During the 1990’s, the US and Europe erred in treating Russia with benign neglect.  It would be a mistake for Russia to respond in kind today by seeking to prolong the PCA negotiations in the hope that a possibly more amenable EU president may one day offer softer terms.", "zh": "在九十年代，美国和欧洲善意忽略俄国犯下错误。 如今，如果俄国寻求拖延协议谈判，从而希望更为屈从的欧盟主席国会有一天提出更为软弱的条款，那就是错误。", "index": 1845}
{"en": "We, like all EU presidencies, will be representing the wider Union interests when we negotiate.", "zh": "我们和其他欧盟轮值主席一样，将会在谈判的时候推动广泛的欧盟利益。", "index": 1846}
{"en": "In Praise of Fragmentation", "zh": "赞美碎片化", "index": 1847}
{"en": "LONDON – Emerging markets are back in the spotlight.", "zh": "发自伦敦 — — 新兴市场再次成为了众人的焦点。", "index": 1848}
{"en": "Investors and banks are suddenly unwilling to finance current-account deficits with short-term debt.", "zh": "投资者和银行突然不愿为为经常账户赤字提供短期贷款融资。", "index": 1849}
{"en": "South Africa, for example, has had to increase interest rates, despite slow economic growth, to attract the funding it needs.", "zh": "例如南非尽管经济增长缓慢，但不得不提高利率来吸引资金。", "index": 1850}
{"en": "Turkey’s rate increase has been dramatic.", "zh": "土耳其的利率提升也非常引人注目。", "index": 1851}
{"en": "For these and other emerging countries, 2014 may prove to be a turbulent year.", "zh": "对它们以及其他新兴国家来说，2014年可能会被证明是动荡的一年。", "index": 1852}
{"en": "If volatility becomes extreme, some countries may consider imposing constraints on capital outflows, which the International Monetary Fund now agrees might be useful in specific circumstances.", "zh": "如果波动变得极端，一些国家可能会考虑限制资本流出，国际货币基金组织目前认为这个做法在特定的情况下可能有用。", "index": 1853}
{"en": "But the fundamental question is how to manage the impact of short-term capital inflows.", "zh": "但根本问题在于如何应对短期资本流入所带来的影响。", "index": 1854}
{"en": "Until recently, economic orthodoxy considered that question invalid.", "zh": "直到最近，正统经济理论认为该问题是不成立的。", "index": 1855}
{"en": "Financial liberalization was lauded because it enabled capital to flow to where it would be used most productively, increasing national and global growth.", "zh": "人们赞美金融自由化就是因为它能使资本流向生产力最高的地方，从而促进国家和全球的增长。", "index": 1856}
{"en": "But empirical support for the benefits of capital-account liberalization is weak.", "zh": "但对资本账户自由化优点的实证支撑相当薄弱。", "index": 1857}
{"en": "The most successful development stories in economic history – Japan and South Korea – featured significant domestic financial repression and capital controls, which accompanied several decades of rapid growth.", "zh": "经济史上最成功的发展故事 — — 日本和韩国 — — 就是靠着特色鲜明的国内金融管制和资本控制实现了数十年的高速发展。", "index": 1858}
{"en": "Likewise, most cross-country studies have found no evidence that capital-account liberalization is good for growth.", "zh": "同样地，大多数跨国研究发现表明没有证据证明资本账户自由化有利于经济增长。", "index": 1859}
{"en": "As the economist Jagdish Bhagwati pointed out 16 years ago in his article “The Capital Myth,” there are fundamental differences between trade in widgets and trade in dollars.", "zh": "正如经济学家贾格迪什·巴格沃蒂（Jagdish Bhagwati）16年前在他的文章《资本神话》中所指出的那样，在商品贸易和美元贸易之间存在着根本差异。", "index": 1860}
{"en": "The case for liberalizing trade in goods and services is strong; the case for complete capital-account liberalization is not.", "zh": "商品和服务贸易自由化会促进经济增长，而全面资本账户自由化则不会。", "index": 1861}
{"en": "One reason is that many modern financial flows do not play the useful role in capital allocation that economic theory assumes.", "zh": "一个原因是许多现代金融流动并非如经济理论假设的那样对资本分配发挥有益的作用。", "index": 1862}
{"en": "Before World War I, capital flowed in one direction: from rich countries with excess savings, such as the United Kingdom, to countries like Australia or Argentina, whose investment needs exceeded domestic savings.", "zh": "在第一次世界大战前，资本只在一个方向流动：从英国这样超额储蓄的富裕国家，流向澳大利亚或阿根廷这样投资需求超过国内储蓄的国家。", "index": 1863}
{"en": "But in today’s world, net capital flows are often from relatively poor countries to rich countries.", "zh": "但是在当今世界，资本净流动通常是从相对贫穷国家流向富裕国家。", "index": 1864}
{"en": "Huge two-way gross capital flows are driven by transient changes in perception, with carry-trade opportunities (borrowing in low-yielding currencies to finance lending in high-yielding ones) replacing long-term capital investment.", "zh": "巨大的双向资本流动总额由对瞬间变化的感知来驱动，使得套利交易机会（借入低收益的货币去投资高收益的货币）取代了长期资本投资。", "index": 1865}
{"en": "Moreover, capital inflows frequently finance consumption or unsustainable real-estate booms.", "zh": "此外，资金流经常会促进消费或非持续性的房地产繁荣。", "index": 1866}
{"en": "And yet, despite the growing evidence to the contrary, the assumption that all capital flows are beneficial has proved remarkably resilient.", "zh": "然而尽管有越来越多的反面证据，但认为所有资本流动都有利的假说却长盛不衰。", "index": 1867}
{"en": "That reflects the power not only of vested interests but also of established ideas.", "zh": "这反映了其力量不仅来自既得利益者，同时也来自已经建立的某些观念。", "index": 1868}
{"en": "Empirical falsification of a prevailing orthodoxy is disturbing.", "zh": "须知一个流行的正统理论被实证推翻是件令人不安的事情。", "index": 1869}
{"en": "Even economists who find no evidence that capital-account liberalization boosts growth often feel obliged to stress that “further analysis” might at last reveal the benefits that free-market theory suggests must exist.", "zh": "甚至是那些认为没有证据表明资本账户自由化能促进增长的经济学家，也会常觉得有必要强调“进一步分析”最终可能证实自由市场理论所说的好处一定存在。", "index": 1870}
{"en": "It is time to stop looking for these non-existent benefits, and to distinguish among different categories of capital flows.", "zh": "是时候停止寻找这些子虚乌有的好处，并区分不同类别的资本流动。", "index": 1871}
{"en": "Some are valuable, but some are potentially harmful.", "zh": "有些是有价值的，有些则是有害的。", "index": 1872}
{"en": "Foreign direct investment (FDI), for example, can aid growth, because it is long term, involves investment in the real economy, and is often accompanied by technology or skill transfers.", "zh": "例如外国直接投资（FDI）可以刺激经济增长，因为它是长期的，涉及到实体经济中的投资，并往往伴随着技术或技能转移。", "index": 1873}
{"en": "Equity portfolio investment may involve price volatility as ownership positions change, but at least it implies a permanent commitment of capital to a business enterprise.", "zh": "股票投资组合可能涉及价格波动作为所有权的位置变化，但至少它意味着对商业企业一个永久的资本承诺。", "index": 1874}
{"en": "Long-term debt finance of real capital investment can play a useful role as well.", "zh": "实际资本投资的长期债务融资可以发挥有益的作用。", "index": 1875}
{"en": "By contrast, short-term capital flows, particularly if provided by banks that are themselves relying on short-term funding, can create instability risks, while bringing few benefits.", "zh": "相比之下，短期资本流动，尤其是如果由本身就依靠短期资金运作的银行来提供的，会在带来少许好处的同时产生不稳定的风险。", "index": 1876}
{"en": "What is less clear is the best policy response.", "zh": "而最好的政策回应就是留下一点模糊空间。", "index": 1877}
{"en": "Capital controls are invariably porous, and we cannot gain the benefits of free trade and FDI without creating some opportunities for short-term investor positioning.", "zh": "因为资本管制永远有漏洞可钻，我们无法只是获得自由贸易和FDI的好处而不给短期投资者留下一些机会。", "index": 1878}
{"en": "China has not liberalized its capital account, but short-term inflows are now driving stronger upward pressure on the renminbi (and larger offsetting reserve accumulation by the People’s Bank of China) than can be explained by the current-account surplus and FDI flows.", "zh": "中国还没有开放其资本账户，但短期流入现在对人民币（以及中国人民银行更庞大的累积对冲储备）产生了超出经常账户顺差和FDI流动所能解释的更大升值压力。", "index": 1879}
{"en": "A case can thus be made for capital-account liberalization that is based on the impossibility of effective control, not on any supposed benefits.", "zh": "这可以作为基于不可能有效控制 — — 而不是基于任何假设的优点 — — 的资本账户自由化的一个案例。", "index": 1880}
{"en": "But while perfect policy is unattainable, partly effective controls can still play a useful role if targeted at the interface between short-term inflows and domestic credit cycles.", "zh": "虽然完善的政策是不存在的，但如果针对短期流入和国内信贷周期的临界点，部分有效的控制仍能发挥作用。", "index": 1881}
{"en": "After all, capital inflows cause the greatest harm when they drive rapid increases in credit-financed consumption or real-estate speculation.", "zh": "毕竟，当资本流入驱动信贷消费或者房地产投机快速增长时就会导致最大的破坏。", "index": 1882}
{"en": "The required policy response should integrate domestic financial regulation with capital-account management.", "zh": "所需的政策反应应该把国内金融监管与资本账户管理整合起来。", "index": 1883}
{"en": "Tax instruments and reserve requirements that put sand in the wheels of short-term capital inflows should be combined with strong countercyclical measures, such as additional capital requirements, to slow domestic credit creation.", "zh": "那些阻碍短期资本流入的税收工具和准备金要求应与反周期措施紧密结合，例如提出额外的资本要求以遏制国内的信贷活动。", "index": 1884}
{"en": "The effectiveness of such measures can be undermined if global banks operate in emerging countries in branch form, providing domestic credit financed by global funding pools.", "zh": "如果全球银行在新兴国家以分行形式运作，并利用全球资金储备提供国内信贷，那这些措施的效果将会受到破坏。", "index": 1885}
{"en": "But this danger can be countered by requiring banks to operate as legally incorporated subsidiaries, with locally regulated capital and liquidity reserves, and strong regulatory limits on the maturity of their funding.", "zh": "但这种危险可以通过要求银行以合法注册的子公司形式运作，局部调整资本和流动性储备，并对它们的资金期限进行强有力的监管来进行防范。", "index": 1886}
{"en": "Such requirements would not prevent useful capital flows: global banking groups could invest equity in emerging markets and fund their subsidiaries’ balance sheets with long-term debt.", "zh": "这样的要求不会阻止有用的资本流动：全球银行集团可以投资于新兴市场股票，并将长期债务来为子公司的资产负债表提供资金。", "index": 1887}
{"en": "In banking, as in other sectors, investment that combines long-term commitment with skill transfer can be highly beneficial, which implies that foreign banks should be free to compete on the same basis as domestic banks.", "zh": "在银行业，就像其他部门一样，结合长期技术转移承诺的投资是非常有益的，这意味着外资银行应该被允许在相同的基础上与国内银行自由竞争。", "index": 1888}
{"en": "Neither mandatory subsidiarization nor tax- or regulation-based capital controls will solve all of the problems.", "zh": "无论是强制性的子公司化，还是基于税收或法规的资本管制都不能解决所有的问题。", "index": 1889}
{"en": "But, taken together, they can stem the volatility implied by short-term flows and help to smooth out domestic credit cycles.", "zh": "但总的来说，它们可以遏止由于短期资本流动所引起的波动，并帮助缓和国内信贷周期。", "index": 1890}
{"en": "Much of the financial industry resists such measures, as do the many economists who remain wedded to the old orthodoxy.", "zh": "许多金融业坚持这些措施，就像许多经济学家仍然执着于旧的正统理论一样。", "index": 1891}
{"en": "Renewed capital controls, they claim, would “fragment” the global financial market, undermining its ability to allocate capital efficiently.", "zh": "他们声称，更新资本管制，将使得全球金融市场“碎片化 ” ， 削弱其有效配置资本的能力。", "index": 1892}
{"en": "In the past, policymakers have been at pains to stress that no such fragmentation will be allowed.", "zh": "过去，政策制定者一直在竭力强调，这样的碎片化是不会被允许的。", "index": 1893}
{"en": "But we need to be blunt: Free flows of short-term debt can result in capital misallocation and harmful instability.", "zh": "但我们需要直言不讳：短期债务的自由流动会导致资本配置不当和有害的不稳定性。", "index": 1894}
{"en": "When it comes to global capital markets, fragmentation can be a good thing.", "zh": "当全球资本市场来临，碎片化可能是一件好事。", "index": 1895}
{"en": "The High-Tech, High-Touch Economy", "zh": "高科技、高接触经济", "index": 1896}
{"en": "LONDON – A recent report revealed that the five richest families in Britain are worth more than the country’s poorest 20% combined.", "zh": "伦敦—最近的一份研究披露，英国最富的五个家庭的财富比最穷的20%英国人加起来还要多。", "index": 1897}
{"en": "Some of the wealth comes from new business ventures; but two of the five are a duke and an earl whose ancestors owned the fields across which London expanded in the nineteenth century.", "zh": "在他们的财富中，有一些来自新企业；但其中有两个家庭是公爵和伯爵，他们的祖先拥有伦敦在十九世纪所扩张的土地。", "index": 1898}
{"en": "Urban land wealth is not just a London phenomenon.", "zh": "城市和财富并不只是伦敦才有的现象。", "index": 1899}
{"en": "As Thomas Piketty’s recent book Capital in the Twenty-First Century shows, accumulated wealth has grown rapidly relative to income across the advanced economies over the last 40 years.", "zh": "托马斯·皮克提（Thomas Piketty）的新著《二十一世纪的资本主义 》 （ Capital in the Twenty-First Century）指出，在过去四十年中，发达经济体的累积财富增长相对要快于收入。", "index": 1900}
{"en": "In many countries, the majority of that wealth – and the lion’s share of the increase – is accounted for by housing and commercial real estate, and most of that wealth resides not in the value of the buildings, but in the value of the urban land on which it sits.", "zh": "在许多国家，大部分财富 — — 以及财富增量中的大头 — — 都由住房和商业地产贡献，并且这些财富的大部分并不在于建筑的价值，而在于建筑所在城市土地的价值。", "index": 1901}
{"en": "That might seem odd.", "zh": "这或许有些奇怪。", "index": 1902}
{"en": "Though we live in the hi-tech virtual world of the Internet, the value of the most physical thing – land – is rising relentlessly.", "zh": "尽管我们生活在高科技互联网虚拟世界，但最实实在在的东西 — — 土地仍在不停地上涨。", "index": 1903}
{"en": "But there is no contradiction: The price of land is rising because of rapid technological progress.", "zh": "但这其实并不矛盾：土地价格之所以上涨，正是因为快速的科技进步。", "index": 1904}
{"en": "In an age of information and communication technology (ICT), it is inevitable that we value what an ICT-intensive economy cannot create.", "zh": "在信息和通信技术（ICT）时代，我们难免会珍视ICT密集型经济无法创造的东西。", "index": 1905}
{"en": "ICT has already delivered remarkable new products and services; but, as MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee argue persuasively in their recent book The Second Machine Age, the really dramatic changes are yet to come, with robots and software bound to automate out of existence a huge number of jobs.", "zh": "ICT带给了我们令人瞩目的新产品和服务；但是，正如麻省理工学院的埃里克·布莱恩约弗森（Eric Brynjolfsonn）和安德鲁·麦卡菲（Andrew McAfee）在他们的近著《第二次机器时代 》 （ The Second Machine Age）中所令人信服地指出的，真正戏剧性的变化还没有到来，机器人和软件必将把大量工作岗位“自动化掉 ” 。", "index": 1906}
{"en": "One consequence is the striking phenomenon of huge wealth creation with very little labor input.", "zh": "一个结果是一个令人惊奇的现象：极少数劳动力投入就可以创造巨大的财富。", "index": 1907}
{"en": "Facebook has an equity valuation of $170 billion but employs only around 6,000 people.", "zh": "Facebook市值高达1,700亿美元，但只有约6,000名雇员。", "index": 1908}
{"en": "The investment that went into building the software that runs it entailed no more than around 5,000 software engineer man-years.", "zh": "建设运行Facebook的软件的投资不过5,000软件工程师人年。", "index": 1909}
{"en": "This remarkable technology has helped to deliver increasing average incomes and will continue to do so.", "zh": "这一令人瞩目的技术推动了平均收入的增加，并将一直如此。", "index": 1910}
{"en": "But the distribution of that bounty has been very unequal.", "zh": "但这笔财富的分配是非常不平等的。", "index": 1911}
{"en": "The lion’s share of the growth has gone to the top half, the top 10%, or even the top 1% of the population.", "zh": "增长的绝大部分都流向了顶层的一半人、10%的人甚至1%的人。", "index": 1912}
{"en": "As the better off become richer, however, much of their rising income will not be spent on ICT-intensive goods and services.", "zh": "但是，尽管受益者变富了，其收入增幅的大头并没有花在ICT密集型商品和服务上。", "index": 1913}
{"en": "There is a limit to how many iPads and smart phones one can need, and their price continues to plummet.", "zh": "一个人需要的iPad和智能手机数量总归有限，并且它们的价格也一直在下降。", "index": 1914}
{"en": "Instead, an increasing share of consumer expenditure is devoted to buying goods and services that are rich in fashion, design, and subjective brand values, and to competing for ownership of location-specific real estate.", "zh": "相反，越来越大的消费支出比重被用于购买富于时尚、设计和主管品牌价值的商品和服务以及攀比房产地段上。", "index": 1915}
{"en": "But if the land on which the desired houses and apartments sit is in limited supply, the inevitable consequence is rising prices.", "zh": "但如果高尚别墅和公寓的地段供给是有限的，那么涨价便成为难以避免的结果。", "index": 1916}
{"en": "Urban land is therefore rising in value – in London, New York, Shanghai, and many other cities – partly because of consumer demand.", "zh": "因此，伦敦、纽约、上海和其他许多城市土地价值节节攀升 — — 部分是因为消费需求的推动。", "index": 1917}
{"en": "But its rising value also makes it an attractive asset class for investors, because further price increases are expected.", "zh": "但土地价值的上升让它们成为令投资者垂涎不已的资产类别，因为可以预期未来价格还会上涨。", "index": 1918}
{"en": "Moreover, returns on real estate have been swollen by the dramatic fall in interest rates over the last 25 years, a decline that was far advanced even before the 2008 financial crisis.", "zh": "此外，房地产回报因为过去25年来利率的大幅下降（远在2008年金融危机前便已开始）而节节升高。", "index": 1919}
{"en": "The cause of those low interest rates is debated; but one probable factor is the reduced cost of business investment in hardware and software-based “machines.”", "zh": "低利率的原因有待争议；但一个可能因素是基于硬件和软件的“机器”的商业投资的成本的下降。", "index": 1920}
{"en": "If you can build a $170 billion company with just 5,000 software engineer man-years, you don’t need to borrow much money.", "zh": "如果建立一个1,700亿美元的公司只需要5,000软件工程师人年的，那么就无需大量借钱。", "index": 1921}
{"en": "The fact that technology is so powerful not only makes physical land more valuable; it also means that future employment growth will be concentrated among the jobs that cannot be automated, particularly in services, which have to be delivered physically.", "zh": "科技如此强大，这一事实不但让实体土地变得更有价值；也意味着未来就业增长将围绕无法自动化的岗位，特别是必须实在提供的服务岗位。", "index": 1922}
{"en": "The US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that among the most rapidly growing occupational categories over the next ten years will be “healthcare support occupations” (nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants) and “food preparation and serving workers” – that is, overwhelmingly low-wage jobs.", "zh": "美国劳动统计局估算，未来十年增长最快的职业分类将是“健康支持岗位 ” （ 护理、看护和侍从）以及“食品准备和服务工人 ” — —也就是说，绝大多数是底薪岗位。", "index": 1923}
{"en": "In short, ICT creates an economy that is both “hi-tech” and “hi-touch” – a world of robots and apps, but also of fashion, design, land, and face-to-face services.", "zh": "简言之，ICT创造了一��“高科技”和“高接触”的经济 — — 一个机器人和应用与时尚、设计、土地和面对面服务并存的世界。", "index": 1924}
{"en": "This economy is the result of our remarkable ability to solve the problem of production and automate away the need for continual labor.", "zh": "这个经济是我们解决生产问题能力高超以及连续劳动需要被自动化排除的结果。", "index": 1925}
{"en": "But it is an economy that is likely to suffer two adverse side effects.", "zh": "但这个经济可能带来两大副作用。", "index": 1926}
{"en": "First, it may be inherently unstable, because the more that wealth resides in real estate, the more the financial system will provide leverage to support real-estate speculation, which has been at the heart of all of the world’s worst financial crises.", "zh": "首先，它可能具有内在不稳定性，因为聚集在房地产的财富越多，金融系统为支持房地产投资所提供的杠杆也就越大，而这正是最糟糕的世界金融危机的核心原因。", "index": 1927}
{"en": "Major changes in financial and monetary policy, going far beyond those introduced in response to the 2008 crisis, are required to contain this danger.", "zh": "这需要金融和货币政策的重大变化来遏制，变化程度将令2008年危机所导致的应对措施黯然失色。", "index": 1928}
{"en": "Second, unless we deliberately design policies that encourage and sustain inclusive growth, a highly unequal society is virtually inevitable, with rising land values and wealth magnifying the effects of the unequal income distribution that ICT produces directly.", "zh": "其次，除非有意设计鼓励和维持包容性增长的政策，否则高度不平等的社会几乎是不可避免的，土地价值和财富的增加将放大ICT直接带来的不平等收入分配效应。", "index": 1929}
{"en": "Indeed, the modern economy may resemble that of the eighteenth century, when the land owned by the Duke of Westminster and the Earl of Cadogan was still just fields to the west of London, more than the middle-class societies in which most developed countries’ citizens’ grew up.", "zh": "事实上，现代经济可能更类似于十九世纪（当时威斯敏斯特公爵和卡多根伯爵所拥有的土地只不过是西伦敦的荒地 ） ， 而不是大部分发达国家公民所成长起来的中产阶级社会。", "index": 1930}
{"en": "The Trade Delusion", "zh": "贸易的迷思", "index": 1931}
{"en": "LONDON – Since 2008, global trade has grown slightly more slowly than global GDP.", "zh": "发自伦敦 — — 自2008年以来，全球贸易的增长幅度稍微落后于全球GDP的增长。", "index": 1932}
{"en": "The Doha Round of World Trade Organization negotiations ended in failure.", "zh": "世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判以失败告终。", "index": 1933}
{"en": "Transatlantic and transpacific trade negotiations are progressing slowly, held back by the resistance of special interests.", "zh": "在各特殊利益集团的阻挠之下，跨大西洋和跨太平洋的贸易谈判也步履维艰。", "index": 1934}
{"en": "But, though many experts fear that protectionism is undermining globalization, threatening to impede global economic growth, slower growth in global trade may be inevitable, and trade liberalization is decreasingly important.", "zh": "尽管许多专家担心保护主义会破坏全球化并威胁到全球经济增长，但全球贸易增长放缓很可能是无法避免的，而贸易自由化的重要性也在不断降低。", "index": 1935}
{"en": "To be sure, for 65 years, rapid trade growth has played a vital role in economic development, with average advanced-economy industrial tariffs plummeting from more than 30% to below 5%.", "zh": "可以肯定的是，过去65年以来，贸易的快速增长在经济发展中扮演了至关重要的作用，使得发达经济体的各行业平均关税从超过30%暴跌到5%以下。", "index": 1936}
{"en": "The creation of Europe’s single market facilitated increased intra-European trade.", "zh": "欧洲单一市场的建立促进了欧盟内部贸易的增长。", "index": 1937}
{"en": "Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan achieved rapid economic catch-up on the basis of export-led growth.", "zh": "日本、韩国以及台湾以出口主导型增长实现了经济的快速赶超。", "index": 1938}
{"en": "China has followed the same path over the last 30 years.", "zh": "中国在过去30年中遵循了同样的路径。", "index": 1939}
{"en": "Trade grew about twice as fast as global output from 1990 to 2008.", "zh": "从1990年到2008年，贸易增速相当于全球产出增速的两倍。", "index": 1940}
{"en": "But there is no reason why trade should grow faster than GDP forever.", "zh": "但是贸易不可能永远比GDP增长得更快。", "index": 1941}
{"en": "Indeed, even if there were no trade barriers at all, trade might grow significantly more slowly than GDP in some periods.", "zh": "事实上，即使没有贸易壁垒，贸易增长也可能会在某些时期明显慢于GDP增长。", "index": 1942}
{"en": "Several factors make it possible that we are entering such a period.", "zh": "有几方面因素使得我们正在进入这样一个时期。", "index": 1943}
{"en": "For starters, there is the changing pattern of consumption in the advanced economies.", "zh": "首先，发达经济体的消费模式发生了变化。", "index": 1944}
{"en": "Richer people spend an increasing share of their income on services that are either impossible to trade (for example, restaurant meals) or difficult to trade (such as health services).", "zh": "富人越来越多的把收入份额花费在服务上，这些服务要么是不可能进行贸易（例如，外出用餐 ） ， 要么是难以贸易（如卫生服务 ） 。", "index": 1945}
{"en": "Non-tradable sectors tend to account for a growing share of employment and economic activity.", "zh": "非贸易部门在就业和经济活动中占据的份额越来越大。", "index": 1946}
{"en": "For several decades, that tendency has been offset by ever more intensive trading of tradable goods, often passing through many countries in complex supply chains.", "zh": "几十年来，这一趋势一直被越发频密的可贸易商品交易所抵消，这些交易往往通过复杂的供应链在许多国家之间流通。", "index": 1947}
{"en": "In the future, however, the shift to non-tradable consumption may dominate.", "zh": "然而在未来，非贸易消费可能转而占据主导地位。", "index": 1948}
{"en": "Indeed, trade intensity may decline even for manufactured goods.", "zh": "事实上，甚至制造业商品的贸易频密度也可能会下降。", "index": 1949}
{"en": "Trade is partly driven by differences in labor costs.", "zh": "贸易在一定程度上是由劳动力成本差异所驱动的。", "index": 1950}
{"en": "China’s dramatic manufacturing growth reflected low wages up to now.", "zh": "目前为止，中国制造业的急剧增长反映了其低工资水平。", "index": 1951}
{"en": "But as real wages in China and other emerging economies grow, incentives for trade will decline.", "zh": "但随着中国和其它新兴经济体实际工资的提高，贸易的激励因素将下降。", "index": 1952}
{"en": "The more that global incomes converge, the less trade there may be.", "zh": "全球收入越是趋同，贸易的次数就越少。", "index": 1953}
{"en": "In addition, as the economists Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee of MIT have argued in their book The Second Machine Age, rapid advances in information technology may enable increasingly extensive automation.", "zh": "另外，正如麻省理工学院经济学家埃里克·布伦乔尔森（Erik Brynjolfsson）和安德鲁·麦卡菲（Andrew McAfee）在《第二次机器时代 》 （ The Second Machine Age）一书中所说，飞速发展的信息技术可以使自动化技术的应用日益广泛。", "index": 1954}
{"en": "Some manufacturing activities, though few jobs, may well return to developed countries, as the advantages of proximity to customers and lower transport costs outweigh decreasingly important differences in labor costs.", "zh": "一些生产活动，尽管只能很少的就业，很可能会回到发达国家开展，因为接近客户的优势和更低的运输成本更胜于重要性逐渐降低的劳动力成本差异。", "index": 1955}
{"en": "Global trade as a share of GDP may therefore decline, but without adverse consequences for global economic growth.", "zh": "全球贸易作为全球GDP的组成部分，其比例可能因此下降，但不会对全球经济增长产生不利影响。", "index": 1956}
{"en": "Rising productivity does not require relentlessly increasing trade intensity.", "zh": "生产率的提高无需不断增加贸易频密度。", "index": 1957}
{"en": "Earth, after all, does not trade with other planets, yet its economy still grows.", "zh": "毕竟，虽然地球没有跟其他星球进行贸易，其经济却仍然保持增长。", "index": 1958}
{"en": "Optimal trade intensity depends on many factors – such as relative labor costs, transport costs, productivity levels, and economy-of-scale effects.", "zh": "最优贸易频密度取决于许多因素 — — 如相对劳动力成本，运输成本，生产力水平，经济规模效应。", "index": 1959}
{"en": "Trends in these factors might make reduced trade intensity not only inevitable but desirable.", "zh": "这些因素的变化趋势会令贸易频密度的降低变得不可避免，但却是有利的。", "index": 1960}
{"en": "Even if that is true, international trade will still play a vital role, and preventing any reversal of past trade liberalization is essential.", "zh": "即使这是真的,国际贸易仍将发挥至关重要的作用，防止对过去贸易自由化进程的逆转是至关重要的。", "index": 1961}
{"en": "But further trade liberalization is bound to be of declining importance to economic growth.", "zh": "但进一步的贸易自由化对经济增长的重要性必然会下降。", "index": 1962}
{"en": "With industrial tariffs already dramatically reduced most potential benefits of trade liberalization have already been grasped.", "zh": "由于各行业关税都已大大减少，大多数贸易自由化的潜在好处已经被开发。", "index": 1963}
{"en": "Estimates of the benefits of further trade liberalization are often surprisingly low – no more than a few percentage points of global GDP.", "zh": "估计进一步的贸易自由化的好处往往出奇地低 — — 不超过全球GDP的几个百分点。", "index": 1964}
{"en": "That is small compared to the cost of the 2008 financial crisis, which has left output in several advanced economies 10-15% below pre-crisis trend levels.", "zh": "这相比2008年金融危机的影响来说极为微小，后者导致多个发达经济体的经济产出比危机前下跌了10~15 % 。", "index": 1965}
{"en": "It is small, too, compared to the difference in economic performance between successful catch-up countries – such as China – and other countries that have enjoyed the same access to global markets but have performed less well for other reasons.", "zh": "而这相对于那些成功实现经济追赶的国家 — — 比如中国 — — 与那些同样拥有通往全球市场渠道但因为其他原因未能充分发力的国家之间的经济表现差异来说也相对较少。", "index": 1966}
{"en": "The main reason for slow progress in trade negotiations is not increasing protectionism; it is the fact that further liberalization entails complex trade-offs no longer offset by very large potential benefits.", "zh": "贸易谈判进展缓慢的主要原因并不是贸易保护主义的日渐增加；而是因为进一步自由化导致的复杂权衡取舍无法再被非常庞大的潜在利益所抵消。", "index": 1967}
{"en": "The Doha Round’s failure has been decried as a setback for developing countries. And some liberalization – say, of advanced economies’ cotton imports – would undoubtedly benefit some low-income economies.", "zh": "多哈回合的失败被认为是发展中国家所遭遇的挫折���同时一些自由化行动 — — 比如发达国家的棉花进口 — — 无疑会令一些低收入国家受益。", "index": 1968}
{"en": "But full trade liberalization would have a complex impact on the least developed economies, some of which would benefit only if compensated for the loss of the preferential access to advanced-economy markets that they currently enjoy.", "zh": "但全面的贸易自由化会对那些最不发达的国家产生复杂的影响，其中一些国家可能会失去现在享有的通往发达经济体市场的优惠渠道，只有对此进行补偿才能让它们受益。", "index": 1969}
{"en": "This implies that further progress in trade liberalization will be slow.", "zh": "这意味着贸易自由化的进一步进展将会放缓。", "index": 1970}
{"en": "But slow progress is a far less important challenge to growth prospects than the debt overhang in developed economies, or infrastructure and educational deficiencies in many developing economies.", "zh": "但相对于发达国家所面对的债务，或者许多发展中经济体的基础设施和教育缺口来说，这一缓慢进展只能算是一个次要的发展障碍。", "index": 1971}
{"en": "That reality often goes unacknowledged.", "zh": "事实的真相往往会被忽视。", "index": 1972}
{"en": "The importance of past trade liberalization has left the global policy establishment with a bias toward assuming that further liberalization would bring similar benefits.", "zh": "过去的贸易自由化导致全球政策体制出现了一种偏见，以为进一步的自由化就能产生同样的结果。", "index": 1973}
{"en": "But while the potential global benefits of trade liberalization have declined, reduced trade intensity might still impede economic development in some countries.", "zh": "但虽然贸易自由化所带来的潜在全球利益在缩小，但贸易频密度的降低将依然阻碍某些国家的经济发展。", "index": 1974}
{"en": "Only a handful of economies over the last 60 years have fully caught up to advanced-economy living standards, and all relied on export-led growth to drive productivity and job creation in manufacturing.", "zh": "在过去60年中只有少数几个国家完全赶上的发达国家的生活水平，而这些国家都是依靠出口导向型增长并通过制造业提高生产力和创造就业。", "index": 1975}
{"en": "Relying solely on that model will be more difficult in the future.", "zh": "在未来，单纯依靠这一模式将变得更为艰难。", "index": 1976}
{"en": "China is so big that it must develop domestic drivers of growth at an earlier stage of development than did Japan, Taiwan, or South Korea; as a result, its exports will inevitably decline (relative to GDP).", "zh": "中国幅员辽阔，所以它必须比日本，台湾和韩国提早一个阶段去开发发展的国内驱动力；因此其出口将无可避免地（相对于GDP）下跌。", "index": 1977}
{"en": "Meanwhile, for some low-income countries, increased manufacturing and service-sector automation of the sort described by Brynjolfsson and McAfee, whether within advanced economies or within China’s established industrial clusters, will make the path to middle- and high-income status more difficult to achieve.", "zh": "与此同时，对某些低收入国家来说，布伦乔尔森和麦卡菲所提出的那种制造业和服务业自动化，无论是在发达经济体还是中国已经成型的产业集群之中，都将令它们迈向中等/高收入国家的路径更加坎坷。", "index": 1978}
{"en": "That poses important challenges for development policy, which further trade liberalization can alleviate only marginally.", "zh": "这对发展政策的制定提出了严峻的挑战，而进一步的贸易自由化只是杯水车薪而已。", "index": 1979}
{"en": "Rethinking the Monetization Taboo", "zh": "反思货币化戒条", "index": 1980}
{"en": "LONDON – Now that the pace of the US Federal Reserve’s “tapering” of its asset-purchase program has been debated to death, attention will increasingly turn to prospects for interest-rate increases.", "zh": "发自伦敦 — — 如今人们已经对美联储“缩减”资产收购计划的步骤进行了充分的讨论，而注意力也将逐渐转向对利率上升的预期方面。", "index": 1981}
{"en": "But another question looms: How will central banks achieve a final “exit” from unconventional monetary policy and return balance sheets swollen by unconventional monetary policy to “normal” levels?", "zh": "但同时又出现了另一个问题：央行们将如何达到一个退出非常规货币政策的最终“出口 ” ， 并把在非常规货币政策下过度膨胀的资产负债表恢复到“正常”的水平？", "index": 1982}
{"en": "To many, a larger issue needs to be addressed.", "zh": "对许多人来说，一个更大的问题必须得到处理。", "index": 1983}
{"en": "The Fed’s tapering merely slows the growth of its balance sheet.", "zh": "美联储的缩减仅仅是减缓了其资产负债表的增速。", "index": 1984}
{"en": "The authorities would still have to sell $3 trillion of bonds to return to the pre-crisis status quo.", "zh": "如果想回到危机前水平的话，当局还要发行价值3万亿美元的债券。", "index": 1985}
{"en": "The rarely admitted truth, however, is that there is no need for central banks’ balance sheets to shrink.", "zh": "但一个很少被承认的真相就是各大央行其实无需去缩减自己的资产负债表规模。", "index": 1986}
{"en": "They could stay permanently larger; and, for some countries, permanently bigger central-bank balance sheets will help reduce public-debt burdens.", "zh": "它们可以长期保持更大的规模；而对一些国家来说，这种长期大规模状况将有助于减轻公共债务负担。", "index": 1987}
{"en": "As a recent IMF paper by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff illustrates, advanced economies face debt burdens that cannot be reduced simply through a mix of austerity, forbearance, and growth.", "zh": "正如卡门·莱因哈特与肯尼思·罗格夫最近发表的一篇国际货币基金组织论文所指出的那样，那些发达经济都面临着一些无法仅仅借助一系列紧缩，拖延和增长就能消除的债务负担。", "index": 1988}
{"en": "But if a central bank owns the debt of its own government, no net public liability exists.", "zh": "但如果一家央行也持有本国债券的话，那就再也不存在什么纯粹的公共债务责任了。", "index": 1989}
{"en": "The government owns the central bank, so the debt is to itself, and the interest expense comes back to the government as the central bank’s profit.", "zh": "央行为政府所有，因此等于政府自己向自己借债， 而利息支出又以央行利息收入的形式返还给了政府。", "index": 1990}
{"en": "If central bank holdings of government debt were converted into non-interest-bearing perpetual obligations, nothing substantive would change, but it would become obvious that some previously issued public debt did not need to be repaid.", "zh": "即便央行持有的政府债券被转化成无息长期债券，也不会有任何实质性的改变，但很显然一些从前发行的公共债权都不再需要偿还了。", "index": 1991}
{"en": "This amounts to “helicopter money” after the fact.", "zh": "这等同于债务出现之后投放的“直升飞机货币 ” 。", "index": 1992}
{"en": "In 2003, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke argued that Japan, facing deflation, should increase public expenditure or cut taxes, funding the operation by printing money rather than issuing bonds.", "zh": "在2003年，时任美联储主席的本·伯南克认为面临通缩的日本应当增加公共支出或者减税，并通过印钞而非发行债券的方式来为这些措施注入资金。", "index": 1993}
{"en": "This, he argued, was bound to increase national income, because the direct stimulative effect would not be offset by concern about future debt burdens.", "zh": "他认为这最终会增加国家收入，因为这种直接刺激的效应不会被对未来债务负担的担忧所抵消。", "index": 1994}
{"en": "His advice was not followed; large Japanese deficits were in fact bond-financed.", "zh": "但他的建议却没有被采纳；大量的日本财政赤字其实是通过发债支撑的。", "index": 1995}
{"en": "But the debts held by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could still be written off.", "zh": "但日本银行所持有的债务却依然是可以被注销的。", "index": 1996}
{"en": "In Japan’s case, this would reduce government debt by an amount equal to more than 40% of GDP today, and around 60% if implemented after the bond purchases planned for 2014.", "zh": "对日本来说，这将可以削减相当于当前GDP总额40%的政府债务，如果在2014年计划的债权购买计划后实施的话甚至可以达到60 % 。", "index": 1997}
{"en": "Objections focus on two risks: central-bank losses and excessive inflation.", "zh": "反对的焦点集中在两大风险之上：央行的损失以及过度通胀。", "index": 1998}
{"en": "But both of these outcomes can be avoided.", "zh": "但这两点后果其实都是可以避免的。", "index": 1999}
{"en": "Central banks have bought government bonds with money on which they currently pay zero or very low interest rates.", "zh": "央行们用自身以零利率或者超低利率融来的钱去购买政府债券。", "index": 2000}
{"en": "So, as interest rates rise, central banks might face costs exceeding their income.", "zh": "因此随着利率上升，央行可能会面临支出超过收入的状况。", "index": 2001}
{"en": "But central banks can choose to pay zero interest on a portion of the reserves that commercial banks hold with them, even when they increase the policy interest rate.", "zh": "但即便央行提升了政策利率，它们依然可以选择去向那一部分由商业银行持有的储蓄支付零利息。", "index": 2002}
{"en": "And they can require commercial banks to hold zero-interest reserves at the central bank equal to a defined proportion of their loans, thus preventing inflationary growth of private credit and money.", "zh": "它们也可以要求商业银行在央行持有相当于其贷款特定比例的零利率储蓄，并因此防止私人信贷和货币的通胀性增长。", "index": 2003}
{"en": "Permanent monetization of government debts is undoubtedly technically possible.", "zh": "长期的政府债务货币化无疑是技术上可行的。", "index": 2004}
{"en": "Whether it is desirable depends on the outlook for inflation.", "zh": "而这是否可取则取决于对通胀的预期。", "index": 2005}
{"en": "Where inflation is returning to target levels, debt monetization could be unnecessarily and dangerously stimulative.", "zh": "当通胀恢复到目标水平时，债务货币化就可能变成一种不必要且危险的刺激手段。", "index": 2006}
{"en": "Central-bank bond sales, while certainly not inevitable, may be appropriate.", "zh": "央行债务出售，虽然注定无法避免，但也可以是恰当的。", "index": 2007}
{"en": "But if deflation is the danger, permanent monetization may be the best policy.", "zh": "但如果通缩是真正威胁的话，长期的货币化可能是最佳的政策。", "index": 2008}
{"en": "I predict that Japan will, in effect, permanently monetize some government debt.", "zh": "我预测日本会在事实上将一些政府债务实施长期货币化。", "index": 2009}
{"en": "After two decades of low growth and deflation, Japanese gross public debt is now above 240% of GDP (and above 140% of GDP on a net basis); and, with the fiscal deficit at 9.5% of GDP, the debt burden continues to increase.", "zh": "在经历了20年的低增长和通缩之后，日本的总公共债务已经超过了GDP的240 % （ 如果以净债务计算的话则超过GDP的140 % ） ；同时在相当于GDP9.5%的财政赤字之下，债务负担依然在不断增长。", "index": 2010}
{"en": "According to the IMF, to reduce its net public debt to 80% of GDP by 2030, Japan would have to turn today’s 8.6% primary budget deficit (the balance excluding interest payments) into a 6.7% primary surplus by 2020 and maintain such surpluses continuously until 2030.", "zh": "据国际货币基金组织统计，如果要在2030年将净公共债务总额降低到相当于GDP80%的话，日本必须在2020年将当前8.6%的基本预算赤字转变为6.7%的基本盈余，并维持这一状况到2030年。", "index": 2011}
{"en": "That will not happen, and any attempt to reach that target would drive Japan into a severe depression.", "zh": "这种情况不会发生，而且任何试图实现这一目标的举措都将把日本带入一场严重衰退之中。", "index": 2012}
{"en": "But the government does not need to repay the ¥140 trillion ($1.4 trillion) of its debt that the BoJ already owns.", "zh": "但日本政府不需要偿还日本银行已经持有的140万亿日元（折合1.4万亿美元）债务。", "index": 2013}
{"en": "The BoJ will continue to increase its balance sheet until it achieves its 2% inflation target.", "zh": "日本银行将继续扩大其资产负债表直到达到2%的通胀目标。", "index": 2014}
{"en": "Thereafter, its balance sheet may stabilize in absolute yen terms and fall slowly as a percentage of GDP, but its absolute size will probably never decrease – a likelihood that should cause no concern.", "zh": "此后其资产负债表的日元净值将趋向稳定并以GDP的一定比例稳步下降，但其绝对规模或许永远不会减少 — — 这是一种不会引发任何忧虑的可能性。", "index": 2015}
{"en": "It is precisely what happened to the Fed’s balance sheet after its wartime and postwar buying of US government bonds came to an end in 1951.", "zh": "而这也正是美联储的资产负债表在1951年结束购买美国政府战时和战后债券后所发生的情况。", "index": 2016}
{"en": "Even as permanent monetization occurs, however, the truth may be obfuscated.", "zh": "即便长期货币化的情况出现，但真相或许会被掩饰掉。", "index": 2017}
{"en": "If government bond repayments to the BoJ continued, but were always offset by new BoJ bond purchases, and if the BoJ kept the interest rate on reserves at zero, the net effect would be the same as a debt write-off, but the fiction of “normal” central-bank operations could be maintained.", "zh": "如果日本政府债券对日本银行的偿付持续存在，但却往往会被新的央行债券购买所抵消，同时倘若日本银行将储蓄利率保持为零，那产生的净效应就等于注销了这些债务，但一个“正常”央行运作的虚构表象将得到维持。", "index": 2018}
{"en": "Central banks can monetize debt while pretending not to.", "zh": "央行可以在假装没有的情况下把债务货币化。", "index": 2019}
{"en": "That pretense may reflect a useful taboo: if we overtly recognize that debt write-off/monetization is possible, politicians might want to do it all the time and in excess, not just in circumstances that make it appropriate.", "zh": "这种假装可能反映出一个有用的戒条：如果我们公开承认债务注销/货币化是可能的，政治家们就可能时刻想着怎样去滥用它，而不是选择适当的时机去实施。", "index": 2020}
{"en": "The historical experience of Weimar Germany, or that of Zimbabwe today, illustrates the danger.", "zh": "过去德国魏玛政府，当今津巴布韦的遭遇都反映了这种风险。", "index": 2021}
{"en": "As a result, even when permanent monetization occurs – as it almost certainly will in Japan and possibly elsewhere – it may remain forever the policy that dare not speak its name.", "zh": "因此，即便发生了长期货币化 — — 几乎可以确定日本会实施而其他国家也有可能 — — 但可能政策永远不会提到这一词汇。", "index": 2022}
{"en": "Such reticence may serve a useful purpose.", "zh": "这种沉默或许将有利于实现一个有益的目的。", "index": 2023}
{"en": "But it must not blind central banks and governments to the full range of policy tools available to address today’s severe debt overhangs.", "zh": "但这也不应令央行和政府们忘记还有这类政策工具是可以用来应对当前的债务暴增问题的。", "index": 2024}
{"en": "The Perils of Financial Freedom", "zh": "金融自由的弊端", "index": 2025}
{"en": "LONDON – Back in 2007, China’s then-prime minister, Wen Jiabao, famously described his country’s economy as “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”", "zh": "发自伦敦 — — 2007年，时任中国国家总理的温家宝指出“中国经济存在着巨大问题，依然是不稳定、不平衡、不协调、不可持续的结构性的问题。", "index": 2026}
{"en": "Today, the imbalance remains, with the economy too focused on investment and too dependent on credit.", "zh": "”如今，不平衡状态依然存在，而中国经济则太过集中于投资领域并过度依赖于信贷。", "index": 2027}
{"en": "China’s current leadership is committed to building a more balanced model, and believes that the market must play a “decisive role” in achieving that.", "zh": "当前的中国领导层承诺要建立一个更为均衡的发展模式，并相信市场会在实现这一目标的过程中扮演“决定性的角色 ” 。", "index": 2028}
{"en": "But, while stronger market discipline is needed in some areas, Chinese officials should be under no illusion that free markets are a panacea for the financial sector.", "zh": "但当某些领域需要更强监管之时，中国官员们不应奢望自由市场会成为金融部门的一剂万能药。", "index": 2029}
{"en": "Indeed, China’s current economic imbalances partly reflect the dangers created by competition in credit markets.", "zh": "事实上，中国当前的经济不平衡状况在某种程度上正是反映出由信贷市场竞争所产生的危机。", "index": 2030}
{"en": "Even before the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s annual investment/GDP ratio was running at an exceptionally high 40%, and economists were calling for a transition to more consumption-led growth.", "zh": "即便是在2008年全球金融危机之前，中国的年均投资/GDP比率就达到极高的40%水平，而经济学家们也在呼吁向更消费导向的增长形势转型。", "index": 2031}
{"en": "But the huge credit stimulus introduced in 2009 drove the economy further in the opposite direction.", "zh": "2012年上述比率上升到47 % ， 而工程建设已经占到了全部产值的40 % 。", "index": 2032}
{"en": "The investment ratio rose to 47% by 2012, and construction now accounts for 30% of all output. Total credit has risen from 130% of GDP to 200%, with both bank loans and “shadow bank” credit expanding rapidly.", "zh": "总信贷量也从相当于GDP的130%飙升到200 % ， 无论是银行贷款还是“影子银行”信贷都急剧扩张。", "index": 2033}
{"en": "Both China and the global economy benefited from that stimulus, which helped prop up overall demand in dangerously deflationary times.", "zh": "中国和全球经济都从这一刺激行动中受益，而这也在危险的通缩时期推高了总需求。", "index": 2034}
{"en": "But it has led to significant wasted investment in heavy industry, real estate, and urban infrastructure, and leaves China facing the challenge of deleveraging and working out bad debts.", "zh": "但这也导致了在重工业，房地产以及城市基础设施建设方面的大量浪费，为中国留下了去杠杆化和坏账的挑战。", "index": 2035}
{"en": "In many areas, improved market discipline does have an important role to play in addressing the structural causes of imbalance.", "zh": "在许多领域，市场纪律的强化确实在应对失衡状况的结构性原因方面发挥了重要作用。", "index": 2036}
{"en": "Wasteful construction investment is encouraged by the under-pricing of rural land.", "zh": "压低价格的农村土地鼓励了过度浪费的建设投资。", "index": 2037}
{"en": "The lack of a normal ownership relationship between the central government and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) allows the latter to pay minimal dividends and over-invest in business expansion.", "zh": "中央政府和国有企业之间正常所有权关系的缺失令后者可以只支付最低限度的红利并在业务发展方面过度投资。", "index": 2038}
{"en": "Caps on interest rates on bank deposits result in household savers supplying a large subsidy to corporate borrowers.", "zh": "对银行存款利率设定的上限导致家庭储蓄者实际上是巨额补贴了企业贷款者。", "index": 2039}
{"en": "And SOEs have better access to credit from state-owned banks than private companies do.", "zh": "国企也比私企更容易从国有银行得到贷款。", "index": 2040}
{"en": "But the belief that financial liberalization will provide an easy route to a balanced and stable economy is a delusion, as Japan’s experience in the 1980’s illustrates.", "zh": "但日本在1980年代的经验证明，那种认为金融自由化就能使经济走向平衡稳定的想法是错误的。", "index": 2041}
{"en": "As Joe Studwell argues persuasively in his book How Asia Works, neither Japan nor South Korea based its successful economic development on free markets in credit supply; instead, they relied on the deliberate direction of credit toward industrial development rather than real estate or consumption.", "zh": "正如乔·斯蒂维尔（Joe Studwell）在其著作《亚洲是如何运行》中证明的那样，无论是日本还是韩国都不是通过自由市场的信贷供应实现经济奇迹的，相反，它们是依靠有意将信贷导入工业发展而非房地产或消费实现成功的。", "index": 2042}
{"en": "When Japan relaxed constraints on its banking system in the 1980’s, the result was an enormous real-estate boom and subsequent bust, followed by two decades of slow growth and deflation.", "zh": "当日本在1980年代放松对银行系统的管制之后，借着就是一场巨大的房地产泡沫以及随后的经济破灭，结果就是持续20年的低速增长和通缩。", "index": 2043}
{"en": "China’s per capita income is still only about a quarter of Japan’s in 1990; it would be a tragedy if it suffered a similar setback before completing the path to developed-country living standards.", "zh": "中国的人均收入在1990年仅相当于日本的1/4，如果中国在实现发达国家生活水平出现了类似的挫折，那必将是悲剧性的。", "index": 2044}
{"en": "One striking feature of the Chinese economy, however, is that real estate and urban infrastructure development – high-rise housing, grand transport projects, convention centers, sports stadiums, and museums – already play a far more important role than they did in Japan and South Korea at comparable stages of economic development.", "zh": "然而中国经济其中一个引人注目的特点就是房地产和城市基础设施建设 — — 高层住宅、大型交通枢纽、会议中心，体育馆和博物馆都比在同一经济发展阶段的日本和韩国要扮演更重要的角色。", "index": 2045}
{"en": "This reflects the interaction of two distinctively Chinese factors and one inherent feature of all banking systems.", "zh": "这反映出两大中国特色因素和所有银行系统的一个内在特点的互动结合。", "index": 2046}
{"en": "The first Chinese factor is the authorities’ focus on “urbanization” as an end in itself, rather than as a byproduct of industrialization.", "zh": "第一大特色是当局强调“城市化 ” ， 但这种城市化本身就是目的，而非工业化的副产品。", "index": 2047}
{"en": "The second is China’s decentralized approach to economic development, with strong competition between regions and cities often focusing on prestige urban infrastructure projects.", "zh": "其二是中国实现经济发展的去中心化手段，区域之间不断竞争，各城市都以宏大华丽的城市基础设施项目为荣。", "index": 2048}
{"en": "The universal feature in this mix is the fact that banks everywhere can create private credit, money, and purchasing power that did not previously exist, and they have a natural bias, if not constrained by public policy, to allocate it to fund real-estate developments, which drive rising land prices.", "zh": "在这一混合体中的共有特点则是世界各地的银行都可以创造出原本不存在的私人信贷，资金以及购买力，而如果不受公共政策限制的话，这些银行都有一个天然的偏好，就是把上述��造物投入到房地产发展中去，并因此推高土地价格。", "index": 2049}
{"en": "These factors will drive construction booms and busts even if obvious market distortions are removed and market discipline is tightened.", "zh": "即便排除了明显的市场扭曲并强化市场纪律，这些因素依然会导致房产建设泡沫并最终破裂。", "index": 2050}
{"en": "The pre-crisis Irish and Spanish banking systems proved just as capable as Chinese state-owned banks at funding excessive real-estate construction.", "zh": "危机前的爱尔兰和西班牙银行都和中国的国有银行一样拥有资助过度房地产建设的能力。", "index": 2051}
{"en": "So, even as China introduces greater market discipline to a largely positive effect, it must plan to constrain credit creation with policy tools that were missing in the advanced economies before the 2008 crisis.", "zh": "因此，即便中国引入了更多的市场管制来取得一个积极的成效，它必须计划好用发达经济体在2008年危机前缺失的政策工具去限制信贷创造。", "index": 2052}
{"en": "Caps on loan-to-value or loan-to-income ratios on real-estate loans should be used aggressively.", "zh": "应当大规模应用对贷款额/价值比和贷款额/收入比设置上限的方法。", "index": 2053}
{"en": "Capital requirements for banks should reflect higher risk weights for real-estate lending than banks’ private assessments of credit risks suggest are appropriate.", "zh": "同时对银行资本金的要求应体现在对房地产贷款方面比银行内部信贷风险评估更高的风险权重。", "index": 2054}
{"en": "The People’s Bank of China should maintain reserve requirements for commercial banks to contain credit creation, rather than reject them as old-fashioned, as occurred in the advanced economies in the decades before 2008.", "zh": "中国人民银行应当维持商业银行的资本储备要求以限制信贷创造，而不是像2008年前的发达经济体那样将其视为过时的东西。", "index": 2055}
{"en": "Credit provision by shadow banks needs to be tightly regulated.", "zh": "影子银行的信贷供应必须严加规管。", "index": 2056}
{"en": "The credit cycle is too important to be left to free markets.", "zh": "对信贷周期的控制能力至关重要，不可拱手让给自由市场。", "index": 2057}
{"en": "China thus faces a difficult challenge.", "zh": "中国因此面对这一个严峻的挑战。", "index": 2058}
{"en": "It must undergo a transition not to the Western model that produced the 2008 crisis, but to an entirely new model that combines elements of market discipline with strong public-policy constraints.", "zh": "它必须实施一个转型，不是朝向导致了2008年危机的西方模式，而是实现一个将某些市场管制因素和强大公共政策限制相结合的全新模式。", "index": 2059}
{"en": "How smoothly that transition occurs matters for the whole world.", "zh": "这场转型能否平稳进行对全世界来说都非常重要。", "index": 2060}
{"en": "By the early 2020’s, China’s GDP will be $20 trillion.", "zh": "到2020年代初期，中国的GDP将达20万亿。", "index": 2061}
{"en": "If the credit/GDP ratio reaches 250% by then, total loans and debt securities would equal $50 trillion, which is more than three times the total of US mortgage debt in 2008.", "zh": "如果信贷/GDP比率在那时达到250 % ， 就意味着总贷款和债务证券价值将达到50万亿，比美国2008年是的次级贷规模还大3倍。", "index": 2062}
{"en": "Today, much of that debt represents claims within the state sector – owed, for instance, by SOEs to state-owned banks.", "zh": "如今，大多数债务的偿付都在国有部门以内，比如国有企业和国有银行。", "index": 2063}
{"en": "But, as the private sector develops, SOEs are subjected to hard budget constraints, and the external capital account is opened, this huge credit mountain will create increasing global financial vulnerability.", "zh": "但随着私人部门不断发展，国企受到严格预算限制，外部资本账户被放开，这一庞大信贷数额将导致全球金融风险不断增大。", "index": 2064}
{"en": "One hopes that the Chinese authorities understand the dangers as well as the benefits of free financial markets better than advanced-economy policymakers did ahead of the 2008 crisis.", "zh": "我们希望中国政府能比2008年危机前的发达经济体政策制定者们更好地认识到自由市场的优点和风险。", "index": 2065}
{"en": "If not, another crisis – far more severe than the last – may become inevitable.", "zh": "如果不是的话，另一场危机 — — 而且比前一场更加剧烈 — — 将不可避免。", "index": 2066}
{"en": "The Great Credit Mistake", "zh": "信用之谬大矣", "index": 2067}
{"en": "LONDON – Before the financial crisis erupted in 2008, private credit in most developed economies grew faster than GDP.", "zh": "伦敦—2008年前，大部分发达经济体的私人信用增长都快于GDP。", "index": 2068}
{"en": "Then credit growth collapsed.", "zh": "接着，私人信用增长崩了盘。", "index": 2069}
{"en": "Whether that fall reflected low demand for credit or constrained supply may seem like a technical issue.", "zh": "私人信用增长的崩盘反映了需求低迷还是供给受限或许是个技术性问题。", "index": 2070}
{"en": "But the answer holds important implications for policymaking and prospects for economic growth.", "zh": "但答案对决策和经济增长前景具有重要影响。", "index": 2071}
{"en": "And the official answer is probably wrong.", "zh": "而官方答案可能是错的。", "index": 2072}
{"en": "The prevailing view has usually stressed supply constraints and the policies needed to fix them.", "zh": "流行的观点通常强调供给受限以及纠正这一问题的政策。", "index": 2073}
{"en": "An impaired banking system, it is argued, starves businesses, particularly small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs), of the funds they need to expand.", "zh": "该观点认为，受损的银行系统让企业困于缺乏扩张所需要的资金，特别是中小企业。", "index": 2074}
{"en": "In September 2008, US President George W. Bush wanted to “free up banks to resume the flow of credit to American families and businesses.”", "zh": "2008年9月，美国总统小布什希望“解放银行以使信用重新流向美国家庭和企业。 ”", "index": 2075}
{"en": "The stress tests and recapitalizations of US banks in 2009 were subsequently hailed as crucial to the recovery of both the banking system and the economy.", "zh": "2009年美国银行的压力测试和资本重组随后被称为是银行系统和经济复苏的关键。", "index": 2076}
{"en": "By contrast, the European Central Bank’s inadequately tough stress tests in 2010 were widely panned for leaving eurozone banks too weak to provide adequate credit.", "zh": "相反，2010年欧洲央行压力测试不够严厉被广泛指为导致欧元区银行太疲软而无法提供重组信用的原因。", "index": 2077}
{"en": "In the United Kingdom, banks have been criticized for not lending the reserves created by quantitative easing to the real economy, leading the Bank of England to introduce its “funding for lending” scheme in 2012.", "zh": "在英国，人们批评银行没有将量化宽松所创造出来的准备金贷给实体经济，导致英格兰银行在2012年引入“贷款专用资金 ” （ funding for lending）机制。", "index": 2078}
{"en": "In the eurozone, it is hoped that this year’s asset quality review (AQR) and stress tests will finally dispel concerns about bank solvency and free up credit supply.", "zh": "在欧元区，人们希望今年的资产质量检查（asset quality review）和压力测试最终能够打消关于银行偿债能力的疑虑，解放信用供给。", "index": 2079}
{"en": "A “credit crunch” – particularly in trade finance – was certainly a key reason why the financial crisis generated a real economy recession.", "zh": "“信用动荡 ” — —特别是贸易融资信用 — — 毫无疑问是金融危机导致实体经济衰退的一个关键因素。", "index": 2080}
{"en": "Taxpayer-funded bank rescues, higher bank capital requirements, and ultra-easy monetary policy have all been vital to overcome credit supply constraints.", "zh": "纳税人出资的银行援助政策、更高的银行资本要求以及极端宽松的货币政策都是克服信用供给受限的关键。", "index": 2081}
{"en": "But there is strong evidence that once the immediate crisis was over, lack of demand for credit played a far larger role than restricted supply in impeding economic growth.", "zh": "但充分的证据表明，一旦迫在眉睫的危机过去，信用需求不足对阻碍经济增长的作用就会远远超过供给受限。", "index": 2082}
{"en": "That argument is persuasively made by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi in House of Debt, an important new book that analyzes US data on a county-by-county basis.", "zh": "这一令人信服的观点由阿提夫·米安（Atif Mian）和埃米尔·苏菲（Amir Sufi）在《债务屋 》 （ House of Debt）中提出。", "index": 2083}
{"en": "Mian and Sufi show that the recession was caused by a collapse of household consumption, and that consumption fell most in those counties where pre-crisis borrowing and post-crisis real-estate prices left households facing the largest relative losses in net wealth.", "zh": "这部重要的新书逐县地分析了美国的数据。 米安和苏菲向我们表明，衰退由家庭消费崩溃引起，而家庭消费下降大部分发生在危机前的借债和危机后的房地产价格导致家庭面临的净财富相对损失最大的县。", "index": 2084}
{"en": "It was in those US counties, too, that local businesses cut employment most aggressively.", "zh": "地方企业削减人工最猛的也是这些县。", "index": 2085}
{"en": "For SMEs, a shortage of customers, not a shortage of credit, constrained borrowing, employment, and output.", "zh": "对中小企业来说，缺少客户，而不是缺少信用，制约了它的借贷、雇用和产出状况。", "index": 2086}
{"en": "And the customers were absent because the pre-crisis credit boom had left them over-leveraged.", "zh": "而之所以缺少客户，是因为危机前信用繁荣导致他们过度借贷。", "index": 2087}
{"en": "In the UK, many business surveys from 2009-2012 told the same story.", "zh": "在英国，2009—2012年的多项商业调查也给出了同样的结论。", "index": 2088}
{"en": "Poor customer demand was ranked well ahead of credit availability as a constraint on growth.", "zh": "客户需求萎靡在制约增长方面的作用远甚于信用易得性。", "index": 2089}
{"en": "Economic growth can indeed continue to be severely depressed by a debt overhang even when credit supply is unrestricted and cheap.", "zh": "即使在信用供给不再受限并且十分低廉的情况下，经济增长也确实有可能继续陷于深度萧条。", "index": 2090}
{"en": "Many Japanese companies were left overleveraged by the boom and bust in credit and real estate in the 1980s and early 1990s.", "zh": "20世纪80年代和90年代初，许多日本公司因为信用和房地产业的繁荣和萧条而陷于举债过度的境况。", "index": 2091}
{"en": "By the late 1990s, the Japanese banking system was offering companies loans at near-zero interest rates.", "zh": "到20世纪90年代末，日本银行系统以几乎为零的利率向公司提供贷款。", "index": 2092}
{"en": "But, rather than borrow to invest, firms cut investment to pay down debt, driving two decades of stagnation and deflation.", "zh": "但是，企业并未借钱投资，反而削减投资来偿债，因而助长了二十年的停滞和通缩。", "index": 2093}
{"en": "Since 2011, the ECB’s analysis of weak eurozone growth has stressed the negative impact of an impaired and fragmented financial system, with high sovereign-bond yields and funding costs for banks resulting in prohibitive lending terms in the peripheral countries.", "zh": "2011年以来，欧洲央行对欧元区增长萎靡的分析强调受损且分散的金融系统的消极影响，以及主权债务收益率高企和银行资金成本导致外围国贷款条件过于苛刻。", "index": 2094}
{"en": "Major progress in fixing these problems has already been achieved.", "zh": "纠正这些问题的主要进展已经实现了。", "index": 2095}
{"en": "The ECB’s latest Monthly Bulletin documents this, citing multiple indicators of improved credit availability and pricing.", "zh": "欧洲央行的最新《月报 》 （ Monthly Bulletin）肯定了这一点，指���多重指标表明信用易得性和价格都在改善。", "index": 2096}
{"en": "Nonetheless, the rate of decline in private-sector loans has accelerated over the last year – from -0.6% to -2% – and low demand is acknowledged to be the main driver of depressed credit growth.", "zh": "尽管如此，私人部门贷款收缩速度在去年仍出现了加快 — — 从-0.6%变为-2 % — —并且寻求低迷已被认定为信用增长受阻的主要原因。", "index": 2097}
{"en": "Simultaneous private deleveraging and fiscal consolidation are restricting eurozone growth far more than remaining restrictions on credit supply.", "zh": "私人去杠杆化和财政整合的同时进行对欧元区增长的限制远过于信用供给持续受限。", "index": 2098}
{"en": "Despite the ECB’s own evidence, however, the policy focus remains on fixing the credit-supply problem, through the AQR and stress tests, and through the ECB’s own version of a funding for lending scheme, announced on June 5.", "zh": "但是，尽管欧洲央行提出了证据，但政策焦点仍集中在通过资产质量检查和压力测试以及通过欧洲央行自身的贷款专用资金机制（6月5日宣布）来纠正信用供给问题上。", "index": 2099}
{"en": "That reflects a recurring tendency in official policy debates, particularly in the eurozone, to concentrate on fixable problems to the exclusion of more difficult issues.", "zh": "这表明官方政策争论（特别是欧元区内）再度集中于可解决的问题而不去顾及更加困难的问题。", "index": 2100}
{"en": "Fixing impaired banking systems after a crisis is both essential and achievable.", "zh": "在危机后修补受损银行系统至关重要并且可以实现。", "index": 2101}
{"en": "Moreover, even when public rescue costs are inevitable, they are typically small change compared to the economic harm wrought by the financial crisis and post-crisis recession.", "zh": "此外，虽然公共援助成本难以避免，但与金融危机和危机后衰退所带来的经济伤害相比，它们往往只是次要变化。", "index": 2102}
{"en": "By contrast, a large debt overhang may be intractable unless policy orthodoxies are challenged.", "zh": "相反，大量债务积压非常棘手，除非挑战政策正统。", "index": 2103}
{"en": "Japan offset private deleveraging in the 1990s by running massive public deficits.", "zh": "20世纪90年代，日本用大规模公共赤字抵消私人去杠杆化。", "index": 2104}
{"en": "The US has pulled out of recession faster than the eurozone, not only – or even primarily – because it fixed its banking system faster, but because it pursued more stimulative fiscal policies.", "zh": "美国之所以比欧元区更快地摆脱衰退，不仅是因为 — — 甚至并非主要因为 — — 它更快地修补了银行系统，也是因为它采取了更具刺激性的财政政策。", "index": 2105}
{"en": "But fiscal stimulus is constrained within the eurozone, where member countries no longer issue their own currency and “sovereign” debt therefore carries a default risk.", "zh": "但财政刺激却在欧元区受到了限制，欧元区成员国不再发行本国货币，因此“主权”债务有了违约风险。", "index": 2106}
{"en": "Aggressive monetary expansion through quantitative easing is also far more complicated and politically contentious in a currency area with no federal debt for the central bank to buy.", "zh": "通过量化宽松实现的激进的货币扩张在欧元区也更加复杂、更具政治正义性，因为作为货币区的欧元区不存在可供中央银行购买的联邦债务。", "index": 2107}
{"en": "To survive and thrive, the eurozone will need to become more centralized, with some common fiscal revenues, expenditures, and debts.", "zh": "要摆脱困境，实现复苏，欧元区就需要更加集中化，拥有一些共同财政收入、支出和债务。", "index": 2108}
{"en": "Of course, this scenario implies immensely difficult political choices.", "zh": "当然，这一情景意味着非常艰难的政治抉择。", "index": 2109}
{"en": "But the starting point for debate must be realism about the nature and severity of the problems facing the eurozone.", "zh": "但争论起点必须是现实地认清欧元区所面临的问题的性质和严重程度。", "index": 2110}
{"en": "If eurozone policy assumes that fixing the banks will fix the economy, the next ten years in Europe could look like the 1990s in Japan.", "zh": "如果欧元区政策认为解决了银行问题就能解决经济问题，那么欧洲的未来十年将和日本的20世纪90年代一样。", "index": 2111}
{"en": "Inequality by the Click", "zh": "鼠标带来的不平等", "index": 2112}
{"en": "LONDON – Pope Francis warned in November that “ideologies which defend the absolute autonomy of the marketplace” are driving rapid growth in inequality.", "zh": "伦敦—教皇方济各在11月时警告说 ， “ 捍卫市场绝对自治权的意识形态”正在导致不平等性的快速扩大。", "index": 2113}
{"en": "Is he right?", "zh": "他说得对吗？", "index": 2114}
{"en": "In one sense, Francis was clearly wrong: in many cases, inequality between countries is decreasing.", "zh": "从一个角度看，方济各显然是错误的：在许多情形中，国家间的不平等性在下降。", "index": 2115}
{"en": "The average Chinese household, for example, is now catching up with the average American household (though still with a long way to go).", "zh": "比如，中国普通家庭就在赶超美国普通家庭（尽管仍有很大差距 ） 。", "index": 2116}
{"en": "But such examples do not negate the importance of rising inequality within countries.", "zh": "但这样的例子并不能证明国家内部不平等性扩大的问题不重要。", "index": 2117}
{"en": "Both China and the United States are dramatically unequal societies – and are becoming more so.", "zh": "中国和美国都是非常不平等的社会，并且在变得越来越不平等。", "index": 2118}
{"en": "In the US, the statistics are striking at both ends of the income distribution.", "zh": "在美国，收入分布两端的数字都令人震惊。", "index": 2119}
{"en": "The bottom quarter of US households have received almost no increase in real (inflation-adjusted) income for the last 25 years.", "zh": "最底层四分之一的美国家庭在过去25年中的实际（经通胀调整的）收入几乎没有增长。", "index": 2120}
{"en": "They are no longer sharing the fruits of their country’s growth.", "zh": "他们不再能够共享国家成长的果实。", "index": 2121}
{"en": "The top 1% of Americans, however, have seen their real incomes almost triple during this period, with their share of national income reaching 20%, a figure not seen since the 1920’s.", "zh": "但是，同期最顶层1%美国人的实际收入几乎翻了三倍，占国民收入的比重达到了20 % ， 这是自20世纪20年代以来从未有过的现象。", "index": 2122}
{"en": "In many emerging countries, rapid economic growth has raised living standards to at least some degree for almost everyone, but the share of the rich and ultra-rich is increasing dramatically.", "zh": "在许多新兴国家，高速经济增长至少在某种程度提高了几乎所有人的生活水平，但富人和超级富人所占比重在显著增长。", "index": 2123}
{"en": "Once these countries approach the average income levels of developed economies, and their growth slows to typical rich-country rates, their future may look like America today.", "zh": "一旦这些国家达到发达国家的平均收入水平、增长下降到典型富裕国家水平，它们的未来可能将和美国的今天差不多。", "index": 2124}
{"en": "Globalization explains some of the bottom-quarter income stagnation in the US and other developed economies.", "zh": "全球化在一定程度上解释了美国和其他发达经济体低层四分之一收入为什么停滞不前。", "index": 2125}
{"en": "Competition from lower-paid Chinese workers has driven down US wages.", "zh": "来自收入更低的中国工人的竞争拉低了美国的工资。", "index": 2126}
{"en": "But technological change may be a more fundamental factor – and one with consequences for all countries.", "zh": "但技术变迁可能是更为根本的因素，也是影响到所有国家的因素。", "index": 2127}
{"en": "Technological change is the essence of economic growth.", "zh": "技术变迁是经济增长的源泉。", "index": 2128}
{"en": "We get richer because we figure out how to maintain or increase output with fewer employees, and because innovation creates new products and services.", "zh": "我们变得更富是因为我们学会了如何用更少的雇员保持和增加产出，也是因为创新创造出了新产品和新服务。", "index": 2129}
{"en": "Successful new technologies always cause job losses in some sectors, which are offset by new jobs elsewhere.", "zh": "成功的新技术总是会造成一些部门的就业损失，但其他部门的新岗位会抵消这一影响。", "index": 2130}
{"en": "Tractors destroyed millions of agricultural jobs, for example, but tractor, truck, and car manufacturers created millions of new ones.", "zh": "比如，拖拉机毁掉了数百万农业工作岗位，但拖拉机、卡车和汽车制造商又创造了几百万个新岗位。", "index": 2131}
{"en": "But new technologies come in subtly different forms, with inherently different economic consequences.", "zh": "但新技术略有不同，其经济后果也具有本质不同。", "index": 2132}
{"en": "Today’s new technologies may have far more troubling distributional effects than those of the electromechanical age.", "zh": "今天的新技术比电机时代的技术具有高得多的破坏性分配效应。", "index": 2133}
{"en": "Imagine that 30 years ago, someone had discovered a set of magic words enabling us to speak to any friend anywhere in the world – “abracadabra John” and you were talking to John, wherever he was.", "zh": "试想，30年前有人发明了能让我们与世界上任何一位朋友交谈的咒语 — — 只消念一句“约翰来 ” ， 你就能和约翰聊天了。", "index": 2134}
{"en": "Provided she secured intellectual-property rights, the inventor would have become the richest person in the world; and her lawyers and those who provided her with luxury goods and services would have become pretty rich, too.", "zh": "发明人获得了知识产权，于是成了世界首富；他的律师和为他提供奢侈商品和服务的人也将变得十分富有。", "index": 2135}
{"en": "But, beyond that, no new jobs would have been created.", "zh": "但是，除此之外，不会有新就业岗位被创造出来。", "index": 2136}
{"en": "Information and communication technology is not costless magic; but it is closer to it than were the innovations of the electromechanical age.", "zh": "信息和通信技术不是无成本的魔法；但与电机时代的创新相比，它们距离无成本魔法更近了。", "index": 2137}
{"en": "The cost of computing hardware collapses over time in line with Moore’s law of relentlessly increasing processing power.", "zh": "计算机硬件成本遵循摩尔定律下降，于是处理能力不断地上升。", "index": 2138}
{"en": "And once software has been developed, the marginal cost of copying it is effectively zero.", "zh": "而一旦软件被开发出来，复制它的边际成本几乎与零。", "index": 2139}
{"en": "The consumer benefits of this technology are large relative to its price: the cost of each year’s latest computer, tablet, or smartphone is trivial compared to the cost of a new car in 1950.", "zh": "这项技术的消费者好处相对于其价格来说很大：每年的最新款电脑、平板和智能手机成本比起1950年的最新款汽车来根本不值一提。", "index": 2140}
{"en": "But the number of jobs created is trivial, too.", "zh": "但创造的就业岗位数量同样也不值一提。", "index": 2141}
{"en": "In 1979, General Motors employed 850,000 workers.", "zh": "1979年，通用汽车公司雇用了850,000名员工。", "index": 2142}
{"en": "Today, Microsoft employs only 100,000 people worldwide, Google employs 50,000, and Facebook employs just 5,000.", "zh": "如今，微软公司全世界员工总数只有100,000人，谷歌是50,000人，Facebook只有5,000人。", "index": 2143}
{"en": "These are mere drops in the ocean of the global labor market, replacing very few of the jobs that information technology has automated away.", "zh": "如此规模在全球劳动力市场的汪洋大海中只算得上一片小浪花，只相当于被信息技术“自动化”掉的岗位数量的零头。", "index": 2144}
{"en": "But increased unemployment is not inevitable.", "zh": "但失业的增加并不是不可避免的。", "index": 2145}
{"en": "There is no limit to the number of service jobs that we can create in retail, restaurants and catering, hotels, and an enormous variety of personal services.", "zh": "我们可以在零售、餐饮、饭店和各种个人服务行业创造出无限量的工作岗位。", "index": 2146}
{"en": "Walmart, for example, employs two million people, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts that more than one million additional jobs will be created in America’s leisure and hospitality sector in the next decade.", "zh": "比如，沃尔玛雇用了两百万人，而美国劳工统计局预测，未来十年美国休闲和酒店业能够创造一百万个新增岗位。", "index": 2147}
{"en": "But the wages that the market will set for these jobs may result in yet greater inequality.", "zh": "但市场为这些岗位准备的工资可能引起更大的不平等。", "index": 2148}
{"en": "And there is no reason to believe that politicians’ all-purpose answer to the problem – “increase workforce skills” – will offset this tendency.", "zh": "没有理由认为政客的通用答案 — — “提升劳动力技能”能扭转这一趋势。", "index": 2149}
{"en": "However many people learn superior IT skills, Facebook will never need more than a few thousand employees.", "zh": "不管多少人学习了尖端IT技能，Facebook永远也只需要几千名员工。", "index": 2150}
{"en": "And access to high-paid jobs is likely to be determined not by absolute skill level, but by relative skill in a winner-take-all world.", "zh": "而能否获得高薪岗位可能不但取决于绝对技能水平，也将取决于在赢家通吃世界中的相对技能水平。", "index": 2151}
{"en": "At least, however, IT products and services are very cheap, so even the relatively poor can afford them.", "zh": "但是，至少IT产品和服务非常便宜，因此即使是相对贫困的人也可以买得起。", "index": 2152}
{"en": "That might make very unequal societies more stable than many fear.", "zh": "这或许能让非常不平等的社会比许多人所担心的更稳定。", "index": 2153}
{"en": "In his recent book Average is Over, the economist Tyler Cowen makes the deliberately provocative argument that while new technology will produce extreme inequality, the relative losers, satiated by computer games and Internet entertainment, and provided with the basics of a minimally acceptable life, will be too docile to revolt.", "zh": "在其新著《告别平均 》 （ Average is Over）中，经济学家泰勒·柯文（Tyler Cowen）提出了一个有意的挑衅性观点：尽管新技术会造成集团不平等，但满足于电脑游戏和互联网娱乐、能够获得可接受的最低限度基本生活条件的相对输家将成为顺从的良民，根本不会闹革命。", "index": 2154}
{"en": "Cowen may be right; the poor may not rebel.", "zh": "柯文也许是对的；穷人可能不会起义。", "index": 2155}
{"en": "But extreme inequality should still concern us.", "zh": "但极端不平等仍让我们忧心忡忡。", "index": 2156}
{"en": "Beyond a certain point, unequal outcomes inevitably fuel greater inequality of opportunity; and extreme inequality of either outcomes or opportunity can undermine the idea that we should all be equal as citizens, if not in material standard of living.", "zh": "超过一定限度的不平等结果难免会引起更大程度的机会不平等；而不管是结果还是机会的极端不平等都会破坏人人平等 — — 即使物质生活条件不平等，公民身份也是平等的 — — 的观念。", "index": 2157}
{"en": "So Pope Francis was right: despite capitalism’s undoubted success as a system for generating economic growth, we cannot rely on market forces alone to generate desirable social outcomes.", "zh": "因此教皇方济各是对的：尽管资本主义作为一种制度在创造经济增长方面毫无疑问是成功的，但我们不可能完全只依靠市场力量创造值得追求的社会结果。", "index": 2158}
{"en": "All new technologies create opportunities, but free markets will distribute the fruits of some new technologies in dramatically unequal ways.", "zh": "所有新技术都创造机会，但自由市场分配新技术的果实的方式可能非常不平等。", "index": 2159}
{"en": "Offsetting such outcomes will be a greater challenge today than it has been in the past.", "zh": "如今，如何抵消这一结果的挑战比以前更大了。", "index": 2160}
{"en": "Protectionist Shadows over Solar Power", "zh": "笼罩太阳能的保护主义阴影", "index": 2161}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – As July ended, a settlement was reached in the world’s largest anti-dumping dispute, with China agreeing to a minimum price for the solar panels that it exports to the European Union.", "zh": "坎布里奇 — — 世界最大的反倾销争端终于于7月底达成和解，中国同意以约定的最低价格向欧盟出口太阳能电池板。", "index": 2162}
{"en": "The solution is much less severe than what had been the imminent alternative: EU tariffs on Chinese solar panels were set to rise to 47.6%, as a result of the European Commission’s “finding” that China – whose market share now stands at 80% in Europe – had been “dumping.”", "zh": "最终的解决方案比曾经迫在眉睫的结果缓和了许多：如果欧盟委员会判定占欧洲市场80%份额的中国“倾销”罪名成立，欧盟对中国太阳能电池板的关税将升至47.6 % 。", "index": 2163}
{"en": "Nonetheless, the settlement is a bad outcome for consumers – and for the environment.", "zh": "但和解对于消费者和环境而言都是不好的结果。", "index": 2164}
{"en": "The China-EU dispute parallels a similar one between China and the United States.", "zh": "中国和欧盟的争端与中美争端非常相似。", "index": 2165}
{"en": "Last fall, the US introduced tariffs of 24-36% against Chinese solar-panel imports, after the Commerce Department determined that China had been “dumping” – which is generally defined as selling at a price below cost – into the American market.", "zh": "去年秋天，在美国商务部认定中国向美国市场“倾销 ” （ 一般定义为以低于成本价销售）罪名成立后，美国对从中国进口的太阳能电池板征收24－36%的关税。", "index": 2166}
{"en": "China, citing its own finding of US dumping of polysilicon – a key input in the production of solar panels – into its market, has already retaliated by imposing import tariffs that could exceed 50%.", "zh": "中国方面则指出美国对华倾销生产太阳能电池板的关键材料多晶硅，并对美进口产品加征超过50%的报复性关税。", "index": 2167}
{"en": "The solar-panel disputes may sound narrow and esoteric, but they go to the heart of the long-running debate over globalization.", "zh": "太阳能电池板争端看似狭隘深奥，但却直指全球化长期争论的核心议题。", "index": 2168}
{"en": "Anti-globalization activists’ most powerful argument is that even if free trade is good for economic progress overall, it might undermine important public goods such as environmental protection.", "zh": "反全球化人士最有力的论据是即使自由贸易从总体上有利于经济增长，但也可能破坏环保等重要公共利益。", "index": 2169}
{"en": "Under the well-known “race to the bottom” hypothesis, countries that are open to international trade are thought to adopt weaker environmental regulations than less open countries do.", "zh": "根据著名的“向下竞争”假说，对国际贸易开放的国家被认为实施了相对宽松的环保法规。", "index": 2170}
{"en": "But trade can also have beneficial environmental effects.", "zh": "但贸易也可能对环境产生有利的影响。", "index": 2171}
{"en": "Specialization in each country allows people to obtain more of what they want, which, especially at higher income levels, includes cleaner air and water.", "zh": "各国分工专业化使人们得到更多想要的东西，特别是当收入水平较高，清洁的空气和水就更符合人们的预期。", "index": 2172}
{"en": "When trade brings down costs, it can benefit environmental goods just as much as it benefits other goods.", "zh": "贸易在降低生产成本的同时，也能够像惠及其他领域那样惠及环境领域。", "index": 2173}
{"en": "So, is trade globalization, on balance, better or worse for the environment?", "zh": "那么，贸易全球化总体而言究竟对环境有害还是有利？", "index": 2174}
{"en": "Some empirical studies of cross-country data find net beneficial effects on indicators of environmental degradation like local sulfur-dioxide air pollution.", "zh": "针对跨国数据的某些实证研究发现贸易全球化对当地二氧化硫空气污染等环境退化指标会产生积极的影响。", "index": 2175}
{"en": "Provided that countries have effective governance institutions at the national level, trade and growth give them the means to clean their air.", "zh": "只要某国在国家一级拥有有效的治理机构，贸易和经济增长会使他们有办法清洁自己的空气。", "index": 2176}
{"en": "But the evidence also suggests that trade and growth can exacerbate other forms of environmental degradation, particularly carbon-dioxide emissions, because CO2 is a global externality that cannot be addressed at the national level, owing to the free-rider problem.", "zh": "但也有证据表明贸易和经济增长会加剧其他形式的环境恶化，尤其是二氧化碳排放，因为搭便车问题的存在，二氧化碳排放这一全球外部效应无法在国家层面解决。", "index": 2177}
{"en": "The solar-power industry is a perfect example of how trade can benefit air quality.", "zh": "太阳能行业是贸易惠及空气质量的绝好实例。", "index": 2178}
{"en": "Skeptics of solar power have long argued that its share in electricity generation cannot rise above a few percentage points without massive subsidies, because it is too costly compared to the alternatives.", "zh": "太阳能怀疑者一直认为因为与替代方案相比成本过高，如果没有大规模补贴，其在发电领域的份额上升不会超过几个百分点。", "index": 2179}
{"en": "Proponents, for their part, counter that temporary moderate subsidies would expand the industry, with economies of scale and learning-by-doing then bringing down costs sharply.", "zh": "太阳能支持者则针锋相对地提出暂时给予适度补贴将扩大行业规模，最终规模经济和经验积累将使成本大幅度降低。", "index": 2180}
{"en": "But proponents have focused too much on government subsidies and too little on the contribution of international trade, which in recent years has had a highly positive effect on the development of solar power, as the bonanza of Chinese panels held down costs.", "zh": "但支持者过于看重政府补贴反而忽略了国际贸易。 国际贸易近年来对太阳能技术的发展产生了非常积极的影响，而中国丰富的电池板资源降低了成本。", "index": 2181}
{"en": "The current embrace of protectionism threatens to reverse this progress.", "zh": "目前的保护主义可能逆转已经取得的进展。", "index": 2182}
{"en": "With the loss of cheap solar panels from China, and with subsidies that helped to drive the European industry now reduced for fiscal reasons, the share of solar power in Europe will fall far short of environmentalists’ goals.", "zh": "没有了来自中国的廉价太阳能电池板，推动欧洲行业发展的补贴又因为财政原因锐减，太阳能在欧洲所占的份额恐怕远远达不到环保主义者的预期。", "index": 2183}
{"en": "But “findings” of “dumping” into foreign markets surely warrant some response, no?", "zh": "但“发现”针对国外市场的“倾销行为”当然需要做出回应，不是吗？", "index": 2184}
{"en": "Actually, no.", "zh": "其实真的不是。", "index": 2185}
{"en": "For starters, even those who are generally sympathetic to trade and markets often have the impression that anti-dumping laws target “predatory pricing,” a practice in which a large producer sells below cost in order to drive its competitors into bankruptcy, at which point it can raise the price and reap monopoly profits.", "zh": "首先，即使是总体上同情贸易市场的人往往也认为反倾销法旨在打击“掠夺性定价 ” ， 该作法是指大厂商以低于成本价销售推动竞争对手破产，之后就可以抬高价格谋取垄断利润。", "index": 2186}
{"en": "But that is not even the way anti-dumping laws are usually written, let alone applied.", "zh": "但反倾销法往往在起草时都没有遵守上述规则，更不用说执行。", "index": 2187}
{"en": "Simply put, anti-dumping measures, such as the US and EU tariffs against Chinese solar panels, are a means of reducing, not fostering, competition.", "zh": "简言之，美欧等对中国太阳能电池板征收关税的反倾销措施是为了遏制，而不是促进竞争。", "index": 2188}
{"en": "So, if predatory pricing is not the producers’ motive for selling below cost in these cases, what is?", "zh": "那么，如果掠夺性定价并不是生产者在上述案例中以低于成本价销售的动机，他们的动机究竟是什么？", "index": 2189}
{"en": "The solar-panel industry worldwide – in China, Europe, and the US – is experiencing a glut of productive capacity.", "zh": "在中、欧、美以及全球范围内，产能过剩的问题正严重困扰着太阳能电池板行业。", "index": 2190}
{"en": "As a result, global supply and demand are balanced at a market price that is below the long-term average cost per unit, which includes a share of the cost already incurred in building the factories.", "zh": "结果造成维持全球供需平衡的市场价低于将建厂成本计算在内的长期平均单位成本。", "index": 2191}
{"en": "But that market price is not below the short-term cost of keeping the factories running once they are built.", "zh": "但上述市场价与工厂建成后维持运营的短期成本相比却并不低。", "index": 2192}
{"en": "In other words, producers sell at prices that are “below cost,” because, having already built the factories, they would lose even more money if they charged above the competitive market price or shut down production altogether.", "zh": "换句话讲，生产企业以“低于成本”的价格销售是因为工厂已经建成，如果他们的收费高于竞争市场价或干脆停止生产，他们损失的成本只能更多。", "index": 2193}
{"en": "When the US or EU finds that China is “dumping” solar panels, or when China finds that the US is “dumping” polysilicon, they are using average cost rather than marginal cost.", "zh": "当美国或欧盟认定中国“倾销”太阳能电池板，或者当中国认定美国“倾销”多晶硅，他们所考虑的仅仅平均而非边际成本。", "index": 2194}
{"en": "By this criterion, dumping occurs every time a store has a clearance sale.", "zh": "按照这一标准，每次商户清仓甩卖都属于倾销行为。", "index": 2195}
{"en": "Some have compared the negotiated agreements to limit China’s solar-panel exports to past “voluntary export restraints” (VERs) or “orderly marketing arrangements” in the steel and consumer-electronic industries, especially those that Japan agreed to apply to its exports to the US in the 1980’s.", "zh": "有人将限制中国太阳能电池板出口已经达成的谈判协议与过去钢铁及消费电子业“自愿出口限制 ” （ Vers）或“有序营销安排 ” ， 特别是20世纪80年代日本承诺用于对美出口的限制和安排进行了对比。", "index": 2196}
{"en": "But a more revealing precedent is Japan’s VERs on exports of autos during this period.", "zh": "但日本在此期间针对汽车业实行自愿出口限制的先例则更有启迪意义。", "index": 2197}
{"en": "American automakers had found it increasingly difficult to compete against smaller, more fuel-efficient Japanese imports.", "zh": "美国汽车制造商与更小更省���的日本进口车抗衡难度越来越大。", "index": 2198}
{"en": "When free trade was eventually restored, American wallets and air quality benefited (and the US auto industry was forced to become more efficient).", "zh": "自由贸易最终恢复时，美国的钱包和空气质量因此而受益（美国汽车业也被迫变得更有效率 ） 。", "index": 2199}
{"en": "Free trade in automobiles was good for the environment 30 years ago.", "zh": "30年前的汽车自由贸易对环境有利。", "index": 2200}
{"en": "The same is true of trade in solar equipment today.", "zh": "如今的太阳能设备也同样如此。", "index": 2201}
{"en": "Westerners should thank Chinese panel producers for their contribution to keeping solar power viable, not penalize them through protectionist anti-dumping measures.", "zh": "西方人应该感谢中国电池板生产商在保持太阳能竞争力中所起的作用，而不是通过贸易保护性质的反倾销措施对他们进行惩罚。", "index": 2202}
{"en": "The Russian Godfather", "zh": "俄罗斯教父", "index": 2203}
{"en": "WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin is behaving like a Mafia boss.", "zh": "华沙—俄罗斯总统普京的行为就像是黑帮老大。", "index": 2204}
{"en": "In invading, occupying, and finally annexing Crimea, he pointed Russia’s guns at Ukraine and said: your territorial sovereignty or your life.", "zh": "在入侵、占领最终吞并克里米亚的过程中，他将俄罗斯的枪口对准乌克兰，说：要领土主权还是要命。", "index": 2205}
{"en": "So far, extortion has worked – and Putin knows it.", "zh": "目前，勒索取得了效果 — — 普京深知这一点。", "index": 2206}
{"en": "Indeed, in his speech announcing the annexation of Crimea, Putin spoke his mind: his regime fears no punishment and will do whatever it pleases.", "zh": "事实上，在他宣布合并克里米亚的演讲中，普京说出了他的想法：他的政权不惧怕任何惩罚，想怎么着就怎么着。", "index": 2207}
{"en": "Crimea is just the first step toward realizing his dream of revived Russian greatness.", "zh": "克里米亚只是恢复俄罗斯荣光的第一步。", "index": 2208}
{"en": "His address in the Kremlin was a tissue of lies and manipulation, though a subtle analysis would be a waste of time.", "zh": "他的克里姆林宫演讲是一层谎言和操纵的面纱，但对此做详细分析只是浪费时间。", "index": 2209}
{"en": "The simple fact is that the president of one of the world’s most powerful countries has embarked on a path of confrontation with the entire international community.", "zh": "简单的事实是，这位世界上最强大国家之一的总统在向全体国际社会选战。", "index": 2210}
{"en": "His speech smacked of the fevered, paranoid world of Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s Demons, conjuring as it did a delusional alternative universe – a place that does not exist and has never existed.", "zh": "他的演讲颇有些陀思妥耶夫斯基的《恶魔 》 （ Demons）中的狂热、偏执的风格，好像他身处一个妄想的平行宇宙中，身处一个并不存在、也从未存在过的世界。", "index": 2211}
{"en": "What does Kosovo, where the Albanians suffered persecution and ethnic cleansing, have in common with the situation in Crimea, whose people have never been oppressed by Ukrainians?", "zh": "科索沃与克里米亚有什么共同点？ 在科索沃，阿尔巴尼亚人遭遇了迫害和种族清洗，而克里米亚人从未遭到过乌克兰人的压迫。", "index": 2212}
{"en": "What is the point in displaying open contempt for Ukraine’s government, parliament, and people?", "zh": "为什么要公然藐视乌克兰政府、议会和人民？", "index": 2213}
{"en": "Why label Ukrainian authorities “fascist and anti-Semitic”?", "zh": "为什么要给乌克兰独裁者贴上“法西斯主义和反犹主义”的标签？", "index": 2214}
{"en": "Crimean Tatars pay no heed to the fairy tales about fascists ruling Ukraine; they can still remember the brutal and murderous mass deportations of their parents and grandparents, ordered by Stalin and carried out by the NKVD.", "zh": "克里米亚鞑靼人根本不关注法西斯主义者统治乌克兰的海外奇谈；他们还记得父辈和祖父辈所遭遇的大规模野蛮凶残的大驱逐，下令的是斯大林，执行的是NKVD。", "index": 2215}
{"en": "In Putin’s mind, the whole world has discriminated against Russia for the last three centuries.", "zh": "在普京看来，过去三百年中世界都看不起俄罗斯。", "index": 2216}
{"en": "Russia’s bloody despots – Catherine II, Nicholas I, or Stalin – apparently never discriminated against anyone.", "zh": "俄罗斯的血腥暴君 — — 叶卡捷琳娜二世、尼古拉斯一世或斯大林 — — 显然从未看不起任何人。", "index": 2217}
{"en": "Putin also warns that “you and we – the Russians and the Ukrainians – could lose Crimea completely.”", "zh": "普京还警告说“你们和我们 — — 俄罗斯人和乌克兰人 — — 可能彻底失去克里米亚。", "index": 2218}
{"en": "Yet he fails to specify who – perhaps Poles and Lithuanians again? – are setting their sights on Sevastopol.", "zh": "”但他没有明确指明是谁 — — 或许又是波兰人和立陶宛人？ — — 在觊觎塞瓦斯托波尔。", "index": 2219}
{"en": "Russia could not, according to Putin, leave the people of Crimea “alone in their predicament.”", "zh": "按普京的说法，俄罗斯不能置克里米亚人“孤独地深陷窘境 ” 。", "index": 2220}
{"en": "These words prompt a sad smile; Leonid Brezhnev used precisely the same phrase in August 1968 to justify the Red Army’s intervention in Czechoslovakia to help beleaguered Communist hardliners there crush the Prague Spring reform movement.", "zh": "这番话令人哭笑不得；1968年8月，勃列日涅夫用完全一样的说辞为红军干预捷克斯洛伐克、帮助四面楚歌的共产主义强硬派镇压布拉格之春改革运动开脱。", "index": 2221}
{"en": "“We want Ukraine to be a strong, sovereign, and independent country,” says Putin.", "zh": "“我们希望乌克兰成为强大、主权和独立的国家 ， ” 普京说。", "index": 2222}
{"en": "Stalin said the same thing about Poland in 1945.", "zh": "斯大林1945年对波兰说过同样的话。", "index": 2223}
{"en": "Brave Russian democrats who have not yet been silenced have already remarked on the similarity between Putin’s appeal to ethnic solidarity in annexing Crimea and Hitler’s stance during the Anschluss and the Sudeten crisis in 1938.", "zh": "没有收声的勇敢的俄罗斯民主派已经指出，普京在吞并克里米亚时所抛出的诉求与希特勒在1938年德奥合并和苏台德危机中的立场并无区别。", "index": 2224}
{"en": "This is the real end of history – the history of dreams about a world governed by democratic values and the market economy.", "zh": "这是真正的历史的终结 — — 由民主价值和市场经济治理世界之梦的历史。", "index": 2225}
{"en": "Unless the democratic world understands that now is not the time for faith in diplomatic compromise, and that it must respond strongly enough to stop Putin’s imperial designs, events could follow a logic that is too dreadful to contemplate.", "zh": "除非民主世界明白现在决非相信外交妥协的时候、必须以足够强硬的立场阻止普京的帝国图谋，否则事件可能朝不可收拾的方向发展。", "index": 2226}
{"en": "It takes force to stop a thug, not sharp words or cosmetic sanctions.", "zh": "要阻止暴徒，必须诉诸武力，靠激烈的言辞和装模作样的制裁是没用的。", "index": 2227}
{"en": "I commend and take pride in Poland’s prudent and determined policy and the attitude of its public, which do us great credit.", "zh": "我赞美并自豪于波兰审慎而果断的政策和波兰人民的态度，这让我们获得了卓著的声誉。", "index": 2228}
{"en": "But we must recognize that the best quarter-century in the last 400 years of Polish history is about to end before our very eyes.", "zh": "但我们必须认识到，波兰过去四百年历史中最好的四分之一世纪就要在我们的眼前结束了。", "index": 2229}
{"en": "A time of tectonic shifts has begun.", "zh": "结构转变的时期开始了。", "index": 2230}
{"en": "We must appreciate what we have managed to achieve – and learn to protect it.", "zh": "我们必须珍视我们已经取得的成就，并学会保护它。", "index": 2231}
{"en": "Mafia bosses often meet an unhappy fate, and I do not think that Putin will fare much better in the end.", "zh": "还帮老大通常结局都不好，我也不认为普京最后会有很好的下场。", "index": 2232}
{"en": "Unfortunately, many people are likely to be hurt in the meantime, not least those who now support him.", "zh": "不幸的是，在此过程中有很多人会受到伤害，不止是现在支持他的哪些人。", "index": 2233}
{"en": "Living with Climate Change", "zh": "与气候变化共存", "index": 2234}
{"en": "ROTTERDAM – For anyone still undecided about the consequences of global warming, the summer of 2018, one of the hottest on record, should have tipped the scales.", "zh": "鹿特丹 — — 对所有仍在观望全球变暖后果的人而言，2018年的夏天，也是有史以来最热的夏天，应该已经倾斜了他们的天平。", "index": 2235}
{"en": "Across far-flung longitudes and latitudes, regions are struggling with the fallout from large-scale climate-related events.", "zh": "在远隔万里的精度和纬度上，各地正在拼命应对大规模气候事件所造成的影响。", "index": 2236}
{"en": "In the southern United States, cities and towns pummeled by Hurricane Florence in September were still drying out when Hurricane Michael brought more flooding in October.", "zh": "在美国南部，那些在9月曾遭到飓风佛罗伦萨袭击的城市和城镇却在10月飓风迈克尔携 更多洪水到来之前几近干涸。", "index": 2237}
{"en": "In California, firefighters are battling the embers of the largest wildfire in state history.", "zh": "在加利福尼亚，消防人员正试图扑灭该州有史以来规模最大的山火余烬。", "index": 2238}
{"en": "And in parts of Latin America, Europe, Africa, and Asia, agricultural output is in freefall following months of stifling heat.", "zh": "而在拉美、欧洲、非洲和亚洲的部分地区，在经历长达数月的闷热天气后，农产品产量正在出现自由落体般的下滑。", "index": 2239}
{"en": "Cooler weather has done little to ease the suffering.", "zh": "天气逐渐凉爽几乎无法减轻这种痛苦。", "index": 2240}
{"en": "According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “moderate” to “exceptional” drought conditions cover 25.1% of the United States.", "zh": "据美国国家海洋及大气管理局统计 ， “ 中等”直至“异乎寻常”的干旱条件覆盖了25.1%的美国。", "index": 2241}
{"en": "But “extreme” and “exceptional” drought – the worst categories – expanded to cover 6.3% of the country, up from 6% in mid-September.", "zh": "但“极端”和“异乎寻常”的干旱 — — 也就是最糟糕的一类 — — 规模扩大到覆盖该国领土的6.3 % ， 高于9月中旬的6 % 。", "index": 2242}
{"en": "Regions in Australia also are struggling with the worst drought in a generation.", "zh": "澳大利亚许多地区也正在与一代人以来最严重的干旱作斗争。", "index": 2243}
{"en": "In fact, for a growing number of people around the world, floods, landslides, and heatwaves – Japan’s summer in a nutshell – is the new normal.", "zh": "事实上，对遍布世界各地越来越多的民众而言，洪水、山体滑坡和热浪 — — 简而言之就是日本的夏天 — — 已经成为新常态。", "index": 2244}
{"en": "A recent study in the journal PLOS Medicine projects a fivefold increase in heat-related deaths in the US by 2080; the outlook for poorer countries is even worse.", "zh": "公共科学图书馆医学杂志最近一项研究预测，2080年美国与炎热相关的死亡将增长五倍多；贫困国家所面临的前景将更加糟糕。", "index": 2245}
{"en": "The climate debate is no longer about causes; fossil fuels and human activity are the culprits.", "zh": "原因不再是气候辩论的主要目标；罪魁祸首是化石燃料和人类活动。", "index": 2246}
{"en": "Rather, the question is how billions of at-risk people and businesses can rapidly adapt and ensure their communities are as resilient as possible.", "zh": "相反，问题在于数十亿面临风险的民众和企业如何才能迅速适应并确保他们的社区能够尽可能地恢复。", "index": 2247}
{"en": "Even if the world meets the Paris climate agreement’s target of limiting the increase in global temperature to 2º Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels, adaptation will still be critical, because climate extremes are now the new normal.", "zh": "就算世界实现巴黎气候协定将全球气温升高限制在比前工业化水平高2℃的目标，因为极端天气现在已经成为新常态，能否适应依然至关重要。", "index": 2248}
{"en": "Some communities have already recognized this, and local adaptation is well under way.", "zh": "有些社区已经认识到这一点，而当地的适应措施正在实施当中。", "index": 2249}
{"en": "In Melbourne, Australia, for example, planners are working to double the city’s tree canopy by 2040, an approach that will lower temperatures and reduce heat-related deaths.", "zh": "例如在澳大利亚的墨尔本，规划人员正在尽一切努力到2040年实现该市树荫量翻倍，这种方法可以降低温度并减少热相关死亡。", "index": 2250}
{"en": "Similarly, in Ahmedabad, a city of over seven million people in Western India, authorities have launched a major initiative to cover roofs in reflective paint to lower temperatures on “heat islands,” urban areas that trap the sun’s warmth and make city living unbearable, even at night.", "zh": "同样，在印度西部人口超过700万的艾哈迈达巴德市，政府发起了一项在屋顶涂刷反光油漆的大规模行动，目的是降低“热岛”温度，这些被称之为热岛的城市区域可以吸收太阳的热量，让城市生活，哪怕是夜间的城市生活都变得无法忍受。", "index": 2251}
{"en": "These are just two of the many infrastructural responses that communities around the world have undertaken.", "zh": "这还仅仅是世界各地社区正在落实的众多基础设施对策中的两项。", "index": 2252}
{"en": "But adapting to climate change will also mean managing the long-term economic fallout of extreme weather, and this is a requirement that countries are only beginning to take seriously.", "zh": "但适应气候变化还将意味着管理极端天气的长期经济影响，而各国才刚刚开始认真对待这样的要求。", "index": 2253}
{"en": "Consider water scarcity.", "zh": "以水资源短缺为例。", "index": 2254}
{"en": "According to a 2016 World Bank analysis, drought-related water crises in Africa and the Middle East could reduce GDP in these regions by as much as 6% by 2050.", "zh": "2016年世界银行分析显示，非洲及中东地区与干旱相关的水资源危机可能会使这些地区的国内生产总值到2050年下降达6 % 。", "index": 2255}
{"en": "That would be painful anywhere, but it would be devastating in regions already rife with political turmoil and humanitarian crises.", "zh": "这在任何地方都足以令人痛苦，但在那些已经饱受政治动荡和人道主义危机折磨的地区，后果将会是灾难性的。", "index": 2256}
{"en": "At the same time, rising sea levels will cause severe damage to coastal areas.", "zh": "与此同时，海平面上升将对沿海地区造成严重的破坏。", "index": 2257}
{"en": "The decline in property values will have far-reaching implications not only for individual wealth, but also for the tax bases of communities and the industries that serve them.", "zh": "不动产价值的下降不仅将对个人财富产生深远的影响，还将拖累社区的税基和为房地产服务的行业的状况。", "index": 2258}
{"en": "A related concern is that homes and businesses around the world will eventually become under-insured or even uninsurable, owing to the frequency of weather-related catastrophes.", "zh": "还有一个相关问题是，因为天气相关灾难的发生频率，世界各地的家庭和企业将最终陷入到保额不足甚至无法保险的窘迫境地当中。", "index": 2259}
{"en": "ClimateWise, a global network of insurance industry organizations, has already warned that the world is facing a $100 billion annual climate risk “protection gap”.", "zh": "ClimateWise是一家全球性的保险业机构网络，它已经警告，世界正在面临每年高达1，000亿美元的气候风险“保护不足 ” 。", "index": 2260}
{"en": "No single international organization or authority has all the answers to the cascade of challenges that climate change has triggered.", "zh": "没有哪一个国际机构或政府能对气候变化所引发的一系列问题全部给出解决方案。", "index": 2261}
{"en": "But some are taking key leadership roles and pushing governments and local communities to act with more urgency.", "zh": "但有人正在扮演关键领导角色，推动政府和当地社区更紧迫地采取行动。", "index": 2262}
{"en": "One of the more promising initiatives to accelerate solutions, launched just this week, is the Global Commission on Adaptation, chaired by former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, and World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva.", "zh": "本周刚刚启动的全球适应委员会由前联合国秘书长潘基文、微软联合创始人比尔·盖茨和世界银行首席执行官克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃担任主席，就是一项加速推进应对措施的非常有前途的计划。", "index": 2263}
{"en": "Over the next 15 years, the world will need to invest some $90 trillion in infrastructure improvements.", "zh": "未来15年，世界各地将要投入约90万亿美元用于基础设施改造计划。", "index": 2264}
{"en": "How these projects proceed, and whether they are designed with low-carbon features, could lead the world toward a more-climate resilient future – or they could undermine food, water, and security for decades to come.", "zh": "这些项目如何落地，以及它们是否具备低碳特征，可能引领未来世界更适应气候变化 — — 否则，它们可能在即将到来的几十年中破坏粮食、水和安全赖以存在的基础。", "index": 2265}
{"en": "A Daughter of Dictatorship and Democracy", "zh": "独裁与民主的女儿", "index": 2266}
{"en": "SEOUL – It is something of a cliché question in South Korea nowadays: Who would be the country’s next president if the election were held tomorrow, rather than in December 2012?", "zh": "首尔 — — 如果选举提前到明天，而不是2012年12月进行，谁将成为下一任国家总统已经成为韩国老生常谈的话题。", "index": 2267}
{"en": "Numerous opinion polls show Park Geun-hye of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) to be the leading candidate.", "zh": "不止一项民调显示执政大国家党候选人朴槿惠最有希望胜出。", "index": 2268}
{"en": "If elected, she would be South Korea’s first woman president, and, for her rivals, her dominant position in the race is an uncomfortable but unassailable fact.", "zh": "如果成功当选，她将成为韩国首任女性总统，而且在她的对手看来，她在竞选中的优势地位虽然令人不快，但又不容置疑。", "index": 2269}
{"en": "South Korean voters of all ages and regions have welcomed Park as a candidate for their country’s leadership.", "zh": "韩国各地各年龄段的选民都欢迎朴槿惠参选总统。", "index": 2270}
{"en": "Her political style is both refreshing and relevant, because she comes across as sincere and forthright at a time when the public is hungry for moral leadership.", "zh": "她的政治风格既有价值又令人耳目一新，因为在公众渴望道德领袖的今天她给人留下了真诚坦荡的印象。", "index": 2271}
{"en": "And she has an astonishing talent for simplifying complicated issues accurately, which she likely learned – along with how to interpret and manipulate the political connotations of every issue – from her father, former President Park Chung-hee.", "zh": "而且她在准确简化复杂问题方面拥有惊人的天赋，她的这种天赋和解读控制所有问题政治内涵的能力极有可能来自前总统朴正熙，也就是她的父亲。", "index": 2272}
{"en": "Acclaimed as a national hero among radical right-wingers, the iron-fisted Park Chung-hee ruled South Korea from 1963 to 1979, in the wake of the 1961 military coup, only to be assassinated by his intelligence chief.", "zh": "1961年军事政变后，当时在右翼激进份子中被奉为民族英雄的铁腕总统朴正熙从1963到1979年被情报机构负责人暗杀前一直统治韩国。", "index": 2273}
{"en": "His daughter is proud of his legacy, which marked the beginning of South Korea’s economic boom.", "zh": "他的女儿为父亲取得的成就感到骄傲，在他执政期间恰好是韩国经济繁荣的开始。", "index": 2274}
{"en": "Indeed, as a pillar of export-oriented modernity, Park Chung-hee was once lionized as the archetype of a modernizing political leadership in military-authoritarian states.", "zh": "事实上，作为出口导向型现代化的中流砥柱，朴正熙一度被奉为军事独裁国家现代化政治领袖的典型。", "index": 2275}
{"en": "At home, he still ranks first in popularity among the country’s heads of state, kindling nostalgia like a popular old record – a corollary to people’s frustration and anger at the current government of President Lee Myung-bak.", "zh": "他在韩国国内的受欢迎的程度依然在国家首脑中名列前茅，就像流行老唱片那样点燃怀旧的火种 — — 这也是人们对总统李明博领导的现任政府感到无奈和愤怒的必然结果。", "index": 2276}
{"en": "Park, who lost her first bid for the GNP’s nomination to Lee in 2007, needs to ensure that no rupture with her erstwhile rival knocks her off the path to victory in 2012.", "zh": "朴槿惠2007年在大国家党内部首轮候选人竞争中负于李明博，而她今天的当务之急是确保与昔日对手的决裂不会影响她在2012年的竞选中胜出。", "index": 2277}
{"en": "An astute politician, Park did not hesitate to campaign wholeheartedly for Lee the last time around – a move that, as part of long-term political strategy, made perfect sense.", "zh": "作为精明的政治家，朴槿惠上次失利后毫不犹豫地全力为李明博助选 — — 这样的举动作为长期政治策略的组成部分是很有意义的。", "index": 2278}
{"en": "To many South Koreans, the election is now Park’s to lose.", "zh": "在许多韩国人看来，总统竞选已经是朴的囊中之物。", "index": 2279}
{"en": "No candidate on the horizon seems able to stop her.", "zh": "似乎没有哪位候选人能够阻挡她成功的步伐。", "index": 2280}
{"en": "If she wins, it will be the result of her seriousness and tenacity, not her political heritage.", "zh": "如果当选，她制胜的法宝将会是严肃和韧性，而不是政治承袭。", "index": 2281}
{"en": "No one in South Korea’s conservative movement doubts that Park is one of them.", "zh": "韩国保守运动的任何人都不怀疑朴是他们当中的一份子。", "index": 2282}
{"en": "And, as an icon of the right, she is well aware that she cannot afford to betray her status.", "zh": "作为右翼势力的标志性人物，她比谁都清楚她不能背叛自己的位置。", "index": 2283}
{"en": "Despite her charisma, Park is neither a Sarah Palin nor an Eva Peron.", "zh": "尽管拥有超凡的个人魅力，但朴既不同于萨拉·佩林也不同于伊娃·裴隆。", "index": 2284}
{"en": "Indeed, she looks more like a Korean Margaret Thatcher – a lady not for turning, in Thatcher’s famous phrase, and with clearly thought-through political principles animating her actions.", "zh": "事实上，她更像是韩国的玛格丽特·撒切尔 — — 按照撒切尔的那句名言，一位不会转弯的女士。 深思熟虑的政治准则为她的一举一动注入活力。", "index": 2285}
{"en": "In any case, she seems destined to establish a new South Korea focusing on her landmark pledge ‘jul pu se,’ literally meaning ‘reduce-loosen-strengthen tax-cuts,’ deregulation, and law and order, not just to add another chapter to her father’s old book.", "zh": "无论如何，她似乎注定要促成韩国关注她里程碑式的‘jul pu se’承诺，其字面意思是‘减税 ’ 、 放松管制、重建法律秩序，而不单纯是延续其父辈的传统。", "index": 2286}
{"en": "Her administration would mark a fresh departure from the country’s troubled recent past.", "zh": "以她为首的政府将首次摆脱韩国近年来问题重重的过去。", "index": 2287}
{"en": "Left-leaning pundits claim that the dictator’s daughter has the same autocratic vision as her father, though Park invariably prefers incremental change to radical measures, and cut her political teeth in the tough-minded politics of the GNP.", "zh": "尽管较之极端措施朴始终更偏好渐进式的变化并成功改变了大国家党顽固不化的政治意志，左倾学者依然声称独裁总统的女儿与其父有着同样的专制目标。", "index": 2288}
{"en": "Others take a flagrantly sexist stance, arguing that a woman president would be a non-starter as long as the North Korean regime continues to threaten national security.", "zh": "也有人明目张胆地采取性别歧视立场，声称只要北朝鲜政权继续威胁国家安全，女性总统就不可能取得成功。", "index": 2289}
{"en": "Although these criticisms don’t seem to bother the electorate very much, Park’s path to victory may yet prove narrower than her supporters expect.", "zh": "尽管这些批评似乎对选民影响不大，但朴的胜利之路可能并没有其支持者所想像的那般宽阔。", "index": 2290}
{"en": "She has been called the “Queen of Elections,” in particular since she won a campaign in 2006 after being slashed with a box cutter by a deranged man.", "zh": "2006年被一个疯子用美工刀砍伤后仍然赢得竞选为朴槿惠赢得了“选举皇后”的美誉。", "index": 2291}
{"en": "But she must convincingly outline practical strategies to resolve South Korea’s most serious problems, including high unemployment, worsening educational performance, and North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.", "zh": "但她必须拿出解决韩国最严重问题的令人信服的实际策略，包括高失业率、教育质量下降和北朝鲜的核武器问题。", "index": 2292}
{"en": "Ms. Park once pledged to provide loans for working-class families from elementary school to college years, while contending that local universities should be empowered to have more autonomy.", "zh": "朴女士曾承诺为工薪家庭提供从小学到大学的贷款，同时提出地方大学应拥有更多自主权力。", "index": 2293}
{"en": "She favors engagement policy and the six-party talks so as to resolve the nuclear troubles.", "zh": "她倾向于通过接触政策和六方会谈解决核问题。", "index": 2294}
{"en": "Come presidential election-day in 2012, South Korean voters will pick the candidate who embodies pragmatism and centrism over a partisan or ideologue.", "zh": "2012年总统大选日到来时，韩国选民会把���投向务实温和的竞选者，而不是党派界线分明的空想家。", "index": 2295}
{"en": "Park’s success will depend, in the end, on the effectiveness of her campaign in further defining her character along those lines.", "zh": "朴槿惠的成功终将取决于其竞选活动能否有效地凸显她在上述方面的特色。", "index": 2296}
{"en": "Unlike former Peruvian dictator Alberto Fujimori’s daughter, who lost her presidential bid in Peru last month, Park is likely to defy her family’s tragic history.", "zh": "与上个月在秘鲁竞选中落败的前秘鲁独裁者阿尔贝托·藤森的女儿不同，朴槿惠可能改变其家族悲剧性的历史。", "index": 2297}
{"en": "If she does, she will be Asia’s most powerful woman, perhaps the most powerful in the world, at the end of next year.", "zh": "如果真是这样，她将在明年年底成为亚洲、也许是全世界最有权力的女性。", "index": 2298}
{"en": "A Day for Planetary Justice", "zh": "一个追求地球正义的日子", "index": 2299}
{"en": "PRINCETON – What we are doing to our planet, to our children and grandchildren, and to the poor, by our heedless production of greenhouse gases, is one of the great moral wrongs of our age.", "zh": "发自普林斯顿 — — 我们现在对地球，对我们的子孙后代以及穷人的所作所为 — — 肆无忌惮地制造温室气体 — — 是我们这一代人所犯下的最大的道德过失。", "index": 2300}
{"en": "On October 24, you can stand up against this injustice.", "zh": "但在10月24日这天，你可以对这种不公正的现象说一声“不 ” 。", "index": 2301}
{"en": "October 24 is 350 Day.", "zh": "10月24日就是所谓的“350日 ” 。", "index": 2302}
{"en": "The name comes from the number of parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that, according to Jim Hansen, perhaps the world’s leading climate scientist, we should not exceed if we are to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change.", "zh": "而这个名字则源自于大气中每百万份之350的二氧化碳含量值，照全世界最杰出的气候科学家吉姆·汉森所说，如果我们要避免遭遇潜在大规模气候变化的话，那么大气中的二氧化碳含量就不能超出这个数。", "index": 2303}
{"en": "It is a measure of the seriousness of our problem that CO2 is already at 386 ppm, and is rising by two ppm each year.", "zh": "而这一测量手段也同时凸显了当前问题的严峻性，因为目前二氧化碳含量已经达到了386ppm，并以每年2ppm的速度在不断增长。", "index": 2304}
{"en": "The need to cut greenhouse gases has become increasingly clear as predictions of global warming – denounced as “alarmist” when they were first made just a few years ago – have repeatedly turned out to have been too conservative.", "zh": "随着对全球变暖的预言 — — 在几年前还被讥为“杞人忧天”的论调 — — 的反复出现并变得极富争议性，削减温室气体排放的必要性也逐渐变得清晰起来。", "index": 2305}
{"en": "We are approaching a point of no return, at which feedback loops will kick in and continue to warm the planet, no matter what we do.", "zh": "而我们正在走进一个死胡同，不论做出何种努力，这场恶性循环都将持续下去并使地球暖化。", "index": 2306}
{"en": "The melting of arctic ice is one example.", "zh": "北极冰层的融化就是一个例子。", "index": 2307}
{"en": "Four hundred years ago, explorers sought the legendary “Northeast Passage” across the north of Europe and Russia to China.", "zh": "在400年前，探险先驱们试图找到一条从北欧/俄罗斯方向通往中国的“东北航道 ” 。", "index": 2308}
{"en": "They found the arctic ice impenetrable, and soon gave up their quest.", "zh": "但他们在发现北极冰层难以被贯穿之后放弃了这一尝试。", "index": 2309}
{"en": "This year, commercial vessels successfully navigated the Northeast Passage.", "zh": "而就在今年，商船却成功打通了这条“东北航道 ” 。", "index": 2310}
{"en": "That is one of many recent dramatic signs that our climate is changing and that our planet is warmer than it has been for a very long time.", "zh": "这个例子只是那些引人注目现象的其中之一，证明我们的气候正在改变而地球也比过去一个长时期变得更暖了。", "index": 2311}
{"en": "But ice-free arctic waters are more than a symptom of global warming. They are themselves a cause of further warming: ice and snow reflect the sun’s rays.", "zh": "但再无冰块漂浮的北冰洋并不仅仅是全球暖化的表象，它们也将是进一步暖化的成因：须知冰和雪都是可以反射太阳光线的。", "index": 2312}
{"en": "An ice-free surface absorbs more warmth from the sun than one covered in snow or ice.  In other words, our greenhouse gas emissions have, by causing enough warming to melt the arctic ice, created a feedback loop that will generate more warming, and melt more ice, even if we were to stop emitting all greenhouse gases tomorrow.", "zh": "一块没有冰雪覆盖的土地将吸收更多的太阳热能。 换句话说，我们的温室气体排放通过制造足以融化北极冰层的热量，反过来又制造了一个产生更多热量的循环并随之融化更多的冰层，而即便我们能在明天就完全杜绝温室气体排放，这个循环将依然继续运作下去。", "index": 2313}
{"en": "Other feedback loops pose a similar danger.", "zh": "而另一个循环则昭示了类似的危险。", "index": 2314}
{"en": "In Siberia, vast quantities of methane, an extremely potent greenhouse gas, are locked up in what used to be called “permafrost” – regions in which it was assumed that the ground was permanently frozen.", "zh": "在塞尔维亚，大量的沼气（一种对温室效应影响极大的气体）都被封存在曾被称为“永久冻土”的地区，因为人们相信这些地区的土地都将永久处于封冻状态。", "index": 2315}
{"en": "But areas that used to be frozen are now thawing, releasing methane and thus contributing to further warming – and to further thawing, which releases more methane.", "zh": "但如今这些土地开始解冻并释放出沼气，并因此而导致进一步暖化 — — 以及进一步解冻和更多沼气的释放。", "index": 2316}
{"en": "Developing nations are grasping just how outrageous the current distribution of greenhouse-gas emissions really is.", "zh": "发展中国家都意识到了当前温室气体排放量分配方案的不合理之处。", "index": 2317}
{"en": "At the United Nations Summit on Climate Change in September, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda pointed out that, while developed nations outside Africa are almost entirely responsible for the problem, its greatest impact will probably be on Africa, which has few resources to cope with the challenge.", "zh": "在9月的联合国气候变化峰会上，卢旺达总统保罗·卡加梅就指出说，当非洲以外的发达国家必须为问题负上全部责任之时，气候变化最大的受害者却可能是非洲国家，而这些国家也缺乏足够的资��去应对这些问题。", "index": 2318}
{"en": "Kagame then suggested giving every country an annual per capita quota for CO2 emissions, and allowing developing countries that are below the quota to trade their excess quota with countries that are above theirs.", "zh": "卡加梅因此建议给各国家都订立一个年人均二氧化碳排放额，并允许那些排放低于限额的国家将排放量出售给那些超出限额的国家。", "index": 2319}
{"en": "The money that developing countries would receive for this would not be aid, but rather a recognition that the rich nations must pay for something that in the past they simply appropriated: far more than their fair share of our atmosphere’s capacity to absorb our waste gases.", "zh": "这些交易所得的资金不是援助，而是富国为过去看上去理所当然的一些行为所必须付出的代价：这要远远多于那些富国在我们大气废气吸收能力中所占的合理份额。", "index": 2320}
{"en": "Sri Lanka took a similar stance, using studies from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to calculate that in 2008, environmentally permissible carbon emissions totaled no more than 2,172 kilograms per person.", "zh": "斯里兰卡也采取了同样的立场，依照联合国气候变化跨部门小组在2008年的统计，环境许可的碳排放不得高于每人2172公斤。", "index": 2321}
{"en": "In fact, the world’s per capita emissions were 4,700 kilograms, or more than double the permissible limit.", "zh": "但事实上目前世界人均排放量已经高达4700公斤，是允许排放量的二倍有余。", "index": 2322}
{"en": "But, while emissions in the rich nations were far above the permissible limit, Sri Lankan emissions were, at 660 kilograms, well below it.", "zh": "然而当富国的排放量远远超出限额之时，斯里兰卡的人均排放量却只有极低的660公斤。", "index": 2323}
{"en": "As Sri Lanka’s government pointed out, “That means low-emitting countries like us could not emit more because our space has already been exploited by developed or global heavy polluting countries without our consent.”", "zh": "正如斯里兰卡政府所指出的那样 ： “ 这意味着我们这些低排放国家已经不能进行更多的排放，因为我们所处的空间已经在毫不知情的情况下被发达国家和全球污染排放大国所占据了。 ”", "index": 2324}
{"en": "This situation is an injustice of vast proportions, reminiscent of – and arguably much worse than – the now-repudiated colonialism of the Western powers in the nineteenth century.", "zh": "这种大范围的不公正不禁使人联想起如今遭到批判的西方列强的19世纪殖民主义行为 — — 甚至可能危害更甚。", "index": 2325}
{"en": "The task of remedying it must begin at the meeting on climate change that will be held in Copenhagen in December.", "zh": "而对此的纠正措施必须在12月的哥本哈根气候会议上贯彻展开。", "index": 2326}
{"en": "Many political leaders have expressed support for strong action on climate change, but what most of them regard as “strong action” will not be enough to get us back below 350 ppm.", "zh": "虽然许多政治家都赞成对气候变化采取强力行动，但其中大多数人所认为的“强力行动”并不足以把我们带回到350ppm的大气二氧化碳含量水平。", "index": 2327}
{"en": "In some countries, including the United States, there are major political obstacles to taking even modest steps.", "zh": "而在包括美国在内的一些国家，即使想要采取更为温和的措施都要面对巨大的政治阻力。", "index": 2328}
{"en": "On October 24, people in nearly every country will be taking action to raise awareness of the need for an international treaty to bring our atmosphere back to 350 ppm of CO2.", "zh": "在10月24日这天，几乎所有国家的人们都将采取行动，激发起对一项能带领人们重回350ppm的国际条约的必要性认识。", "index": 2329}
{"en": "There will be climbers hanging banners high in the Himalayas, where the glaciers are melting, and scuba divers at Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, which is threatened by climate change.", "zh": "登山者将在冰川逐渐融化的喜马拉雅山上拉起横幅标语，而在遭到气候变化威胁的澳大利亚大堡礁，潜水员们也将有所宣示。", "index": 2330}
{"en": "Churches will ring bells 350 times, 350 cyclists will circle towns, and, in many places, 350 trees will be planted.", "zh": "教堂将鸣钟350响，350名单车手将绕城骑行，而在许多地方将有350棵树的植树仪式。", "index": 2331}
{"en": "At www.350.org you can find out what is happening near you and join in, or put your own idea online.", "zh": "通过www.350.org这个网站你可以查询到你附近人们的活动方案并参与其中，还可以在网上发表自己的点子。", "index": 2332}
{"en": "But don’t just sit back and hope that others will do enough to make an impact.", "zh": "但不要选择袖手旁观，期待他人去完成一切。", "index": 2333}
{"en": "One day your grandchildren will ask you: what did you do to meet the greatest moral challenge of your time?", "zh": "因为有一天你的孙子们会问 ： “ 当面对你那个年代最艰巨的道德挑战时，你都做了些什么？ ”", "index": 2334}
{"en": "A Day of Liberation", "zh": "解放日", "index": 2335}
{"en": "When I was seven years old, in 1960, my grandmother Angelica opened my eyes to the meaning of 8 May 1945, the day when Nazi Germany surrendered and World War II ended in Europe.", "zh": "在我七岁那一年，就是1960年，我的祖母安朱丽卡让我明白了1945年5月8日的意义：那一天纳粹德国投降，二战在欧洲结束。", "index": 2336}
{"en": "We were spending our summer holidays in Normandy where the liberation of Europe from Nazism had started on D-Day, 6 June 1944.", "zh": "当时我们正在诺曼底度暑假。 在那里，欧洲挣脱纳粹统治的纪念日是从1944年6月6日盟国登陆西欧那一天算起的。", "index": 2337}
{"en": "One evening, I listened to my parents and my grandmother talking about the past.", "zh": "一天傍晚，我听到父母和祖母在谈论过去。", "index": 2338}
{"en": "I have forgotten the details of their conversation, but I can still hear my grandmother’s sigh of relief when she said “Thank God we lost that war!”", "zh": "我已不记得谈话的细节，但是耳边始终回响着当时祖母长舒了一口气说的那句话 ： “ 感谢上帝，我们输了那场战争。 ”", "index": 2339}
{"en": "From a child’s perspective, it wasn’t self-evident that losing was a good thing.", "zh": "从一个孩子的角度看，把失败当成一件好事确实不容易理解。", "index": 2340}
{"en": "But of course, my grandmother was right to equate defeat with liberation.", "zh": "但无疑，祖母把失败和解放等同起来是正确的。", "index": 2341}
{"en": "The more I have thought about the lesson she taught me 45 years ago, the clearer I have seen another, less obvious dimension in what she said: It is “we” who lost the war.", "zh": "我对她45年前教给我的这一课思考的越多，就越能看清楚另外一个不太显露的层面：是“我们”输了这场战争。", "index": 2342}
{"en": "Collectively, the Germans had not been the innocent victims of a small gang of criminal outsiders called “Nazis” – Nazism had been an inside ideology supported by millions of Germans, and every German was liable for its atrocities whether or not he or she had adhered to it individually.", "zh": "作为一个民族来讲，德国人并不只是那一小撮被叫作“纳粹”的罪恶并注定会失败的人的无辜牺牲品。 “纳粹主义”是无数德国人内心根深蒂固的理念，每一个德国人都应对德国的残暴行为负责任，反思自己是否曾经固守过这一理念。", "index": 2343}
{"en": "In today’s Germany, an overwhelming majority subscribes to the proposition that 8 May 1945 was a day of liberation – not only for Europe, but also for Germany itself.", "zh": "今天的德国，绝大多数人赞成：不仅对于欧洲，对德国自身来讲， 1945年5月8日也是一个解放日。", "index": 2344}
{"en": "Compared to public opinion in 1960, that’s certainly an enormous progress.", "zh": "相对1960年的公众看法而言，这当然是个巨大的进步。", "index": 2345}
{"en": "But paradoxically, it may also contain an element of forgetfulness, because it tends to conceal the fact that liberation required a military defeat.", "zh": "但自相矛盾的地方在于， 这其中可能包含了一种叫作“健忘”的因素，因为它往往掩藏了一个事实：有解放就必然有军事上的胜利。", "index": 2346}
{"en": "To use my grandmother’s parlance, it is not “us” who were the liberators, but “them”.", "zh": "引用我祖母的说法，解放者并不是“我们 ” ， 而是“他们 ” 。", "index": 2347}
{"en": "The way people see the past tells us more about their present attitudes than about the past itself.", "zh": "人们看待过去的方式更多的告诉我们他们现在所持的态度，而不是过去本身。", "index": 2348}
{"en": "This is what the term “politics of memory” is meant to indicate. And this is why it doesn’t matter whether the relevant events happened 60 years ago (as World War II), 90 years (as in the case of the Armenian genocide) or even 600 years (such as the battle of Kosovo in 1389).", "zh": "这就是“记忆的政治”这个术语的所指；这也是为什么说相关事件是发生在60年前（二战 ） ， 90年前（亚美尼亚大屠杀 ） ， 还是600年前（比如1389年科索沃战争）都不是很要紧的原因。", "index": 2349}
{"en": "A violent conflict in the past may survive as a war of memories in the present, as can be observed in the current dispute between China and South Korea on one side, and Japan on the other.", "zh": "过去的暴力冲突可能在今天，作为记忆中的战争，继续存活下去。 正如我们看到现在发生在中国、韩国和日本之间的冲突。", "index": 2350}
{"en": "A war of memories, in turn, may sometimes lead to a violent conflict in the future.", "zh": "记忆中的战争，可能因此引发未来的暴力冲突。", "index": 2351}
{"en": "Former perpetrators often try to de-legitimize their former victims’ moral superiority by claiming they were victims themselves.", "zh": "从前的罪人时常企图通过声明他们自己也是牺牲品来否定真正受害者那更优越的道德取向。", "index": 2352}
{"en": "Therefore, the 60th anniversary of the firebombing of Dresden by Allied forces on 13 February 1945 has probably been a more crucial moment in terms of the German “politics of memory” than the 60th anniversary of 8 May 1945 is going to be.", "zh": "因此，就“记忆的政治”这个词来说，1945年2月13日这个盟军向德累斯顿开火的第60个纪念日，相对于1945年5月8日这个第60个纪念日，便可能是一个更关键性的时刻。", "index": 2353}
{"en": "Far-right groups infamously dubbed the attack by which at least 30,000 people were killed “Dresden’s Holocaust of bombs.”", "zh": "极右势力卑鄙的导演了“德累斯顿大屠杀 ” ， 在侵袭中至少三万人被杀害。", "index": 2354}
{"en": "Fortunately, their propaganda campaign has been a failure.", "zh": "幸运的是，他们的宣传活动以失败告终。", "index": 2355}
{"en": "Although it is true that thousands of the civilians killed in Dresden and other German cities were innocent at an individual level, there can be no doubt it was morally imperative that Germany be defeated collectively.", "zh": "虽然成千上万在德累斯顿和德国其它城市被杀害的德国平民作为个体确是无辜的，但从道义上讲，毫无疑问德国应该作为一个民族被挫败。", "index": 2356}
{"en": "On the left side of the German political spectrum, the proposition that 8 May 1945 was a day of liberation remains unchallenged.", "zh": "在德国政坛的左派当中，关于把1945年5月8日看成解放日这一提法向来毋庸置疑。", "index": 2357}
{"en": "However, it is sometimes repressed that the massive use of force had been necessary to achieve that result.", "zh": "然而，取得这一结果必须大规模使用武力，这一事实却时而被压置。", "index": 2358}
{"en": "Left-wing pacifism tends to overlook this simple fact.", "zh": "左翼和平主义往往忽略这个清楚的事实。", "index": 2359}
{"en": "Its slogan “Never again war!” is only half the truth – the other half is “Never again appeasement!” 8 May 1945 was not “zero hour,” as a popular saying in Germany goes.", "zh": "它的口号“再也不要战争！ ”只是真相的一部分，另一部分是“再也不要绥靖！", "index": 2360}
{"en": "It had an antecedent, that is, a lack of pre-emptive resistance at home and abroad to the threat that built up in Nazi Germany during the 1930’s.", "zh": "” 。 1945年5月8日并不是德国流行说法所提及的“零时 ” ， 因为已经有先例，那就是：缺乏对20世纪30年代纳粹德国国内外威胁的“先发制人”的抵制。", "index": 2361}
{"en": "There is yet another lesson to be learned.", "zh": "还有一个教训要吸取。", "index": 2362}
{"en": "Yes, 8 May 1945 was a day of liberation to which the Soviet army contributed decisively.", "zh": "是的，1945年5月8日是苏军起到绝对性贡献作用的一个解放日。", "index": 2363}
{"en": "But for millions of Central and East Europeans, liberation was followed by Stalin’s oppressive regime.", "zh": "但对于数以百万计的中欧和东欧人民来说，解放后，随之而来的是斯大林的高压统治。", "index": 2364}
{"en": "The current war of memories between the Baltic republics and Russia, with regard to the international celebration in Moscow on 9 May this year, reminds Germany of a special historic responsibility.", "zh": "如今对波罗的海共和国与俄罗斯之间战争的记忆，是今年5月9日在莫斯科举行的国际庆典的主题，这让德国意识要负一个特殊的历史责任。", "index": 2365}
{"en": "The German-Soviet non-aggression treaty, the so-called Hitler-Stalin pact, concluded in August 1939, had been supplemented by a secret appendix dividing the border states Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania into spheres of interest for the two parties.", "zh": "德苏之间的“互不侵犯”条约，即中止于1939年8月的所谓“希特勒－斯大林”协定，曾经作过修订，追加的是一个秘密附录 ― ― 关于如何把边境国家：芬兰、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、波兰和罗马尼亚划分到这两大势力国的利益范围。", "index": 2366}
{"en": "But excusing Nazi atrocities by pointing to Stalinist crimes is an intellectually and morally unacceptable stratagem.", "zh": "但是企图把矛头转向斯大林的罪行来为纳粹暴行辩护，无论在知性还是道义上都说不过去。", "index": 2367}
{"en": "When Chancellor Schröder travels to Moscow for the Red Square celebrations, he should bear in mind Nazi Germany’s contribution to the Baltic tragedy.", "zh": "当施罗德总理来到莫斯科红场参加庆祝仪式的时候，他应该反思的是德国要为波罗的海诸国的悲剧承担多少责任。", "index": 2368}
{"en": "On 8 May this year, public speakers will remind us how important it is not to forget.", "zh": "今年5月8日，公众的声音会提醒我们“不能忘记”有多重要。", "index": 2369}
{"en": "They will stress that if the lessons of history are not learned, history is bound to repeat itself.", "zh": "他们会强调如果不吸取历史教训，历史就必然会重演。", "index": 2370}
{"en": "All this is perfectly true.", "zh": "这些都是完全正确的。", "index": 2371}
{"en": "But personally, I will also remember my grandmother’s sentence “Thank God we lost that war!”", "zh": "但是，作为个人来讲，我还要记住我祖母的那句话 ： “ 感谢上帝，我们输了这场战争。", "index": 2372}
{"en": "Thank God – and thanks to all those brave Allied soldiers who sacrificed their lives for the sake of Europe’s liberty.", "zh": "”感谢上帝，还要感谢为保卫欧洲自由而牺牲了自己生命的所有盟军战士。", "index": 2373}
{"en": "Crashing the SDR", "zh": "撕开SDR之口", "index": 2374}
{"en": "SANTA BARBARA – The Chinese government’s campaign to have its currency, the renminbi, included in the International Monetary Fund’s reserve asset appears to be on the brink of success.", "zh": "圣芭芭拉—中国政府让人民币进入国际货币基金组织（IMF）储备资产的努力眼看就要成功了。", "index": 2375}
{"en": "Last week, IMF staff formally recommended adding the renminbi to the basket of currencies that determines the value of its so-called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).", "zh": "上周，IMF正是建议将人民币加入决定其所谓的特别提款权（SDR）价值的货币篮子中。", "index": 2376}
{"en": "The addition of the renminbi to the basket, which currently includes the US dollar, the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen, would provide China with a boost to its prestige.", "zh": "SDR篮子目前包括美元、欧元、英镑和日元，将人民币加入其中将让中国获得提高其声望的机会。", "index": 2377}
{"en": "More important, it would advance the government’s efforts to internationalize the renminbi.", "zh": "更重要的是，这有利于中国政府的人民币国际化政策。", "index": 2378}
{"en": "But it would also be a mistake.", "zh": "但这也是一个错误。", "index": 2379}
{"en": "The decision to recommend the renminbi’s inclusion, far from having been made on sound economic grounds, can only be understood as political.", "zh": "建议纳入人民币并没有可靠的经济理由，只能视之为政治动作。", "index": 2380}
{"en": "As such, the long-term consequences are likely to be regrettable.", "zh": "而这样的动作可能带来令人遗憾的长期后果。", "index": 2381}
{"en": "On a purely technical basis, the renminbi’s qualifications for inclusion in the SDR basket are questionable.", "zh": "从纯理论角度，人民币是否有资格纳入SDR篮子颇为可疑。", "index": 2382}
{"en": "Traditionally, the IMF has insisted on two criteria: a currency’s issuing country must be among the world’s leading exporters, and the currency must be “freely usable” – widely used and traded.", "zh": "传统上，IMF要求两个标准：货币发行国必须是世界领先的出口国；并且该货币必须“可自由使用 ” — —即被广泛使用和交易。", "index": 2383}
{"en": "As the world’s largest exporter, China clearly meets the first condition.", "zh": "作为世界最大出口国，中国显然满足第一个条件。", "index": 2384}
{"en": "The second, however, is probably still beyond its reach.", "zh": "但是，第二个条件仍无法满足。", "index": 2385}
{"en": "The renminbi is by no means in the same league as the SDR basket’s four incumbent currencies.", "zh": "人民币仍无法与SDR篮子中现有的四种货币等量齐观。", "index": 2386}
{"en": "In 2014, China’s currency ranked seventh in global central-bank reserves, eighth in international bond issuance, and 11th in global currency trading.", "zh": "2014年，人民币在全球央行储备中名列第七，国际债券发行量名列第八，国际货币交易量名列第十一。", "index": 2387}
{"en": "Moreover, the renminbi remains non-convertible for most capital transactions, China’s financial markets are primitive, and trading margins for the exchange rate are still set daily by the monetary authorities.", "zh": "此外，人民币对于大部分资本交易而言仍不可兑换，中国金融市场也较为原始，人民币汇率的交易波动幅度仍由货币当局每日制定。", "index": 2388}
{"en": "Indeed, as recently as August, the IMF was skeptical about adding the renminbi to the SDR basket, saying that “significant work” was still needed, and suggesting that a decision should be put off until 2016 in order to ensure a “smooth” transition.", "zh": "事实上，直到今年8月，IMF对于是否将人民加入SDR持怀疑态度，认为仍需要“大量工作 ” ， 并建议将这一决定推迟到2016年，以确保“平稳”过渡。", "index": 2389}
{"en": "So why did the IMF flip?", "zh": "那么，IMF的态度为何发生了转变？", "index": 2390}
{"en": "The answer is obvious: China mounted a full-court press to change minds.", "zh": "答案显而易见：中国步步紧逼，迫使其改变态度。", "index": 2391}
{"en": "In August, the currency’s exchange-rate regime was loosened slightly.", "zh": "8月份，人民币汇率机制略有放松。", "index": 2392}
{"en": "Renminbi-denominated government bonds were issued in London, and plans were laid to create new trading platforms for the currency in several European financial centers.", "zh": "伦敦发行人民币计价政府债券，欧洲几大金融中心也纷纷提出建立新的人民币交易平台的计划。", "index": 2393}
{"en": "And Chinese policymakers made it abundantly clear how unhappy they would be with a negative decision.", "zh": "中国决策者清楚地向世界表明，做出对其不利的决定将让他们十分不快。", "index": 2394}
{"en": "Their pressure paid off.", "zh": "他们的压力起到了成效。", "index": 2395}
{"en": "One by one, Western governments fell in line behind the renminbi, despite its practical limitations.", "zh": "西方政府纷纷加入了人民币阵营，尽管其实用性存在诸多限制。", "index": 2396}
{"en": "The Fund got the message, and now the fix is in.", "zh": "IMF收到了这一信息，现在做出了回应。", "index": 2397}
{"en": "The recommendation to enlarge the SDR basket has been warmly backed by Christine Lagarde, the IMF’s managing director, and a final decision by the Fund’s executive board is expected at the end of the month.", "zh": "扩大SDR篮子的建议受到了IMF总裁克里斯汀·拉加德的大力支持，预计IMF执委会将在本月底做出最终决定。", "index": 2398}
{"en": "Many would argue that this is a positive development.", "zh": "许多人会说，这是一个积极的发展趋势。", "index": 2399}
{"en": "Certainly, it mollifies China’s leaders, offering them a stronger incentive to continue to work within the existing international monetary regime.", "zh": "显然，这能够安抚中国领导人，让他们有更大的激励继续在现有国际货币机制之内行动。", "index": 2400}
{"en": "Recent Chinese initiatives, especially the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, have given rise to fears that the country intends to build a new set of international institutions to compete with Western-dominated organizations like the IMF.", "zh": "中国最近的各种行动，特别是成立亚洲基础设施投资银行，让人们担心它意在建立一套新的国际机构与西方主导的IMF等组织抗衡。", "index": 2401}
{"en": "The decision to add the renminbi to the SDR basket may have put that danger into remission.", "zh": "将人民纳入SDR篮子的决定将减轻这一危险。", "index": 2402}
{"en": "On the other hand, the move sets a worrying precedent, injecting politics into a policy area that had been governed by objective economic considerations.", "zh": "另一方面，这一决定开启了令人但有的先例，让政治染指了一个此前完全由客观经济考量决定的政策领域。", "index": 2403}
{"en": "Conceivably, over the longer term, China’s successful campaign could now open the door to lobbying by other governments to include their currencies as well.", "zh": "可以想象，从长期看，中国成功让人民币加入SDR篮子也开启了其他政府让本国货币加入SDR篮子的游说大门。", "index": 2404}
{"en": "Why not add the Swiss franc or the Canadian dollar?", "zh": "为什么不加入瑞士法郎或加拿大元？", "index": 2405}
{"en": "Or, for that matter, why not include the Russian ruble or Indian rupee?", "zh": "或者，出于同样的理由，为什么不加入俄罗斯卢布或印度卢比？", "index": 2406}
{"en": "What was once the dignified preserve of obviously elite currencies could become the site of messy political battles for elevated status.", "zh": "曾经高高在上的公认精英货币俱乐部，现在成了提升地位的政治乱斗场。", "index": 2407}
{"en": "Of course, it can be argued that China’s recent economic trajectory means that it is only a matter of time before the renminbi does become a match for the SDR’s incumbents.", "zh": "当然，你可能会说，近期中国经济运行轨迹表明人民币名正言顺成为SDR成员只是时间问题。", "index": 2408}
{"en": "After all, international use of the currency has been growing exponentially.", "zh": "毕竟，对人民币的国际化使用呈现出指数增长之势。", "index": 2409}
{"en": "But that optimistic assessment overestimates the renminbi’s prospects and illustrates the danger of linear extrapolation of the past into the future.", "zh": "但这一乐观评估高估了人民币的前景，正好说明了用过去线性推断未来的危险。", "index": 2410}
{"en": "Likewise, use of the renminbi for the purpose of invoicing and settling trade with China is bound to continue growing.", "zh": "类似地，出于开发票以及结算对华贸易目的使用人民币的情况必定会继续增加。", "index": 2411}
{"en": "But in terms of the all-important roles of a currency as an investment vehicle or reserve asset, the outlook for the renminbi is much less promising, owing to China’s still-tight capital controls and low level of financial development.", "zh": "但对于货币最重要的作用 — — 投资载体或储备资产而言，人民币的前景并不那么美妙，因为中国资本管制仍然十分严格，金融发展水平也较低。", "index": 2412}
{"en": "Nor is inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket likely to provide as big a boost to the currency’s internationalization as many believe.", "zh": "加入SDR篮子是否能给人民币国际化带来巨大的提振也不像许多人认为的那样确定。", "index": 2413}
{"en": "Some central banks may decide to follow suit, adding renminbi-denominated assets to their reserves to match the composition of the basket.", "zh": "一些央行也许会跟进，将人民币计价资产纳入其储备，以匹配SDR货币篮的组成。", "index": 2414}
{"en": "But the increase will be marginal at best – some $40 billion in the next few years, according to the IMF’s calculations.", "zh": "但这一增量很小 — — 据IMF估计，未来几年也许只有400亿美元。", "index": 2415}
{"en": "With global reserves now totaling more than $10 trillion, that is a mere drop in the proverbial bucket.", "zh": "目前全球储备总量为10万亿美元以上，400亿只是九牛一毛。", "index": 2416}
{"en": "The political reasons for including the renminbi in the SDR are all too clear.", "zh": "将人民币纳入SDR的政治原因一清二楚。", "index": 2417}
{"en": "Unfortunately, the risks of doing so are no less obvious.", "zh": "不幸的是，这样做的风险并不那么一清二楚。", "index": 2418}
{"en": "A Defeat for International Tax Cooperation", "zh": "国际税收合作的挫折", "index": 2419}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Most of the world’s governments – eager to mobilize more tax revenues to finance development and curb pervasive tax-avoidance schemes, such as those revealed in the so-called Luxembourg Leaks scandal last year – have an interest in collaborating on taxation matters.", "zh": "纽约—全球大部分政府急于动员更多的税收收入为发展融资以及遏制无处不在的避税机制（比如去年所谓的卢森堡泄密所揭示的 ） ， 在税收问题上展开合作符合它们的利益。", "index": 2420}
{"en": "Yet at the Third International Conference on Financing for Development, held in Addis Ababa last month, the momentum toward strengthening international tax cooperation came to an abrupt halt.", "zh": "但在上个月在亚的斯亚贝巴举行的第三届国际发展融资会议（International Conference on Financing for Development）上，强化国际税收合作的势头突然停止了。", "index": 2421}
{"en": "Developed countries blocked a proposal at the conference to establish an intergovernmental tax body within the United Nations to replace the current UN Committee of Experts.", "zh": "发达国家在会上阻止了在联合国内部成立跨政府税收机构取代目前的联合国转接委员会的方案。", "index": 2422}
{"en": "These countries insist that tax cooperation should take place exclusively under the leadership of the OECD, a body that they control.", "zh": "这些国家坚持税收合作只能在它们所控制经合组织的领导下进行。", "index": 2423}
{"en": "The rest of the world should hope this will prove to be a pause rather than an end to progress on international tax cooperation, which began 13 years ago, at the first International Conference on Financing for Development in Monterrey, Mexico.", "zh": "其他国家应该希望这只是国际税收合作的暂时停止而非终结。 国际税收合作始于13年前墨西哥蒙特雷首届国际发展融资会议。", "index": 2424}
{"en": "Two years later, in 2004, the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) upgraded its “ad hoc group” of tax experts to a regular committee.", "zh": "两年后，2004年，联合国经济与社会委员会（ECOSOC）将其税收专家“临时小组”升级为常设委员会。", "index": 2425}
{"en": "This meant that the experts would meet regularly and have an expanded mandate that went beyond merely updating a model double-taxation treaty.", "zh": "这意味着专家们将定期召开会议，其权限也将得到扩展，而不仅仅是更新双税条约（double-taxation treaty）样板。", "index": 2426}
{"en": "Four years later, at the Second Conference on Financing for Development, in Doha, Qatar, policymakers acknowledged that more needed to be done in tax matters, and asked ECOSOC to consider strengthening institutional arrangements.", "zh": "四年后，在卡塔尔多哈举行的第二届发展融资会议上，决策者承认在税收���题上做得不够，并要求ECOSOC考虑加强制度安排。", "index": 2427}
{"en": "And then, in the year leading up to the Addis Ababa conference, the UN Secretary-General endorsed the need for “an intergovernmental committee on tax cooperation, under the auspices of the United Nations.”", "zh": "接着，在亚的斯亚贝巴会议前一年，联合国秘书长表示支持有必要建立“联合国框架下的跨政府税收合作委员会 ” 。", "index": 2428}
{"en": "His endorsement, along with strong support from nongovernmental organizations and the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation, gave greater force to the demand by developing countries, organized around the Group of 77 and China, for an equal voice in setting global tax norms.", "zh": "秘书长的支持，以及来自非政府组织和国际公司税改独立革委员会（Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation）的强烈支持让发展中国家的要求更加有力。 在77国集团和中国的组织下，发展中国家要求在制定全球税收规范中获得平等的发言权。", "index": 2429}
{"en": "Up until the 11th hour of negotiations in Addis Ababa, they stood firm in calling for an intergovernmental body with the mandate and resources to create a coherent global framework for international tax cooperation.", "zh": "直到亚的斯亚贝巴谈判的第11个小时，它们都坚决要求通过拥有权力和资源的跨政府机构建立一致的全球性国际税收合作框架。", "index": 2430}
{"en": "But to no avail: Developed countries, led by the United States and the United Kingdom –home to many of the multinational corporations implicated in the “Lux Leaks” – succeeded in blocking this much-needed advance in global governance.", "zh": "然而没有什么用：以美国和英国 — — “卢森堡泄密”中所牵涉到的众多跨国公司的母国 — — 为首的发达国家成功地阻挠了这一全球治理所急需的进展。", "index": 2431}
{"en": "In the end, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda provides that the current Committee of Experts will continue to function according to its 2004 mandate, with three additional meeting days per year, all funded through voluntary contributions.", "zh": "最终，亚的斯亚贝巴行动日程（Addis Ababa Action Agenda）规定，目前的专家委员会将继续根据其2004年的权限行使功能，每年增加三次会议，完全以自愿捐款的方式筹集资金。", "index": 2432}
{"en": "That is a profoundly disappointing outcome.", "zh": "这是一个令人失望透顶的结果。", "index": 2433}
{"en": "The developed countries have an argument – but not a convincing one.", "zh": "发达国家有它们的理由 — — 但是并不令人信服。", "index": 2434}
{"en": "The OECD, whose members are essentially the world’s 34 richest countries, certainly has the capacity to set international standards on taxation.", "zh": "事实上由全球34个最富裕国家组成的经合组织显然有能力制定国际税收标准。", "index": 2435}
{"en": "Yet the domination of a select group of countries over tax norms has meant that, in reality, the global governance architecture for taxation has not kept pace with globalization.", "zh": "但一小撮国家主宰税收规范意味着，在现实中，税收问题的全球治理结构早已与全球化脱节。", "index": 2436}
{"en": "The Monterrey Consensus reached in 2002 included a call to enhance “the voice and participation of developing countries in international economic decision-making and norms-setting.”", "zh": "2002年所达成的蒙特雷共识（Monterrey Consensus）呼吁强化“发展中国家在国际经济决策和规范制定中的声音和参与 ” 。", "index": 2437}
{"en": "But although the OECD invites some developing countries to participate in its discussions to establish norms, it offers them no decision-making power.", "zh": "但尽管经合组织邀请了一些发展中国家参与规范制定的讨论，却没有提供任何决策权力。", "index": 2438}
{"en": "The OECD is thus a weak surrogate for a globally representative intergovernmental forum.", "zh": "因此，经合组织只是有全球代表性的跨政府论坛的劣等替代品。", "index": 2439}
{"en": "Such a body must operate under the auspices of the United Nations, which bears the institutional legitimacy necessary to respond effectively to the challenges of globalization with coherent global standards to combat abusive tax practices and ensure fair taxation of corporate profits worldwide.", "zh": "这样一个机构必须在联合国框架下运行，联合国拥有必要的机构合法性，能够以一致的全球标准打击税收不法行为、确保全球公司利润公平纳税，从而有效应对全球化挑战。", "index": 2440}
{"en": "Despite the disappointment in Addis Ababa, the call for reform of the international tax system is not likely to be silenced.", "zh": "尽管亚的斯亚贝巴会议令人失望，但国际税收制度改革的呼声不可能平息。", "index": 2441}
{"en": "Instead, it will grow louder on all sides, as the developed countries’ counter-productive resistance to any give and take on international cooperation results in a tsunami of unilateral tax measures beyond OECD control.", "zh": "相反，随着发达国家适得其反地拒绝在国际税收合作问题上做出让步导致了经合组织控制不了的单方面税收措施风暴，各方的呼声都会日益增强", "index": 2442}
{"en": "The Making of Euro-Jihadism", "zh": "欧洲圣战主义的形成", "index": 2443}
{"en": "MADRID – The Belgian historian Henri Pirenne linked Europe’s birth as a Christian continent in the eighth century to its rupture with Islam.", "zh": "马德里 — — 比利时历史学家亨利·皮雷纳将欧洲这块基督教大陆的诞生与公元八世纪与伊斯兰教的决裂联系在一起。", "index": 2444}
{"en": "Pirenne probably would never have expected a Muslim ghetto in Brussels to emerge, much less become a hub of jihadism, with marginalized and angry young Muslims revolting against Europe from within its own borders.", "zh": "皮雷纳或许永远也不会想到布鲁塞尔有朝一日会出现穆斯林贫民窟，更不会想到这里会成为圣战主义的中心，眼睁睁看着被边缘化和愤怒的穆斯林青年从欧洲的境内反抗欧洲。", "index": 2445}
{"en": "Divorce is not an option these days.", "zh": "现阶段用离婚来解决问题已经并不现实。", "index": 2446}
{"en": "But nor is the kind of marriage that the Islam scholar Tariq Ramadan advocates.", "zh": "但也不能容许伊斯兰教学者塔里克·拉马丹所宣扬的那种婚姻继续下去。", "index": 2447}
{"en": "Ramadan, a grandson of the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, is a Swiss citizen and a resident of the United Kingdom who argues that Islamic ethics and values should be injected into the European system.", "zh": "埃及穆斯林兄弟会创始人的孙子拉马丹是一名瑞士公民，同时在英国拥有居民身份，他提出伊斯兰教的道德和价值观应当被注入到欧洲国家的体制。", "index": 2448}
{"en": "Europe would then not just tolerate Islam, but actually embrace it as an integral part of itself.", "zh": "那样欧洲就不仅要容忍伊斯兰教，而且还要在实际上接受它作为自身的有机组成部分。", "index": 2449}
{"en": "The problem with Ramadan’s vision is that Europe is an overwhelmingly secular continent, with a profoundly forward-thinking approach to ethics.", "zh": "拉马丹愿景的问题在于欧洲是一块世俗势力占压倒性优势的大陆，在道德观方面有着深刻的前瞻性思维。", "index": 2450}
{"en": "Islamic societies, by contrast, are both deeply religious and deeply embedded in the past.", "zh": "而伊斯兰社会则恰恰相反，拥有深刻的宗教色彩并且深深植根于过去。", "index": 2451}
{"en": "When Islamists speak of political or social reform, they are typically looking backward, hoping to resurrect a time when core European principles – from gender equality to gay marriage – were repudiated.", "zh": "当伊斯兰教徒谈论政治和社会改革的时候，他们普遍都在回首过去，希望复兴的那个时代否定从性别平等到同性婚姻在内的欧洲核心原则。", "index": 2452}
{"en": "Even Muslims who support the modernization of Islam would typically stop well short of Europe’s ethical vision.", "zh": "就连那些支持伊斯兰教现代化的穆斯林往往也会对欧洲的道德愿景望而却步。", "index": 2453}
{"en": "The flaws in Ramadan’s proposed solution to Euro-jihadism mirror the flaws in his explanation for the phenomenon, which he attributes largely to Europe’s involvement in the wars in the Middle East, its supposed collusion with Israel’s suppression of the Palestinians, and its support of Arab autocrats.", "zh": "拉马丹所提的针对欧洲圣战主义解决方案的缺陷其实是他对这种现象解释的缺陷的反映。 他把圣战主义在欧洲的泛滥大致归咎于欧洲卷入了中东战争、欧洲所谓的与以色列勾结对巴勒斯坦人的镇压以及其对阿拉伯独裁者的支持。", "index": 2454}
{"en": "“We cannot,” he writes, “support dictatorships … be silent when civilians are massacred south of our borders, and hope that we will not receive a response to the injustice and humiliation we have provoked.”", "zh": "“我们不能 ， ” 他写道 ， “ 支持独裁制度 . . . 当平民在我们的边境以南遭受屠杀时保持沉默，并且希望我们不会因为挑起不公和屈辱而遭到回应。", "index": 2455}
{"en": "But it is the United States that launched wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, offers unconditional support to Israel, and has repeatedly propped up Arab autocrats.", "zh": "但是美国发动了伊拉克和阿富汗战争、为以色列提供无条件支持并一再支持阿拉伯独裁者。", "index": 2456}
{"en": "And it is Europe that has consistently criticized these policies – often harshly.", "zh": "欧洲一直对这些政策持批评态度 — — 往往言辞还非常激烈。", "index": 2457}
{"en": "Yet America is not being subjected to a major surge of jihadist sentiment within its borders.", "zh": "但美国并没有遭受到境内圣战情绪高涨的打击。", "index": 2458}
{"en": "It might have helped that US President Barack Obama backed away from some of these policies.", "zh": "美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马逐渐收回这些政策或许有助于缓解对美国的仇恨情绪。", "index": 2459}
{"en": "When the Arab Spring uprisings began, for example, he was quick to cut support for Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, allowing protesters – inspired by the Western model of democracy – to secure regime change.", "zh": "例如，在阿拉伯之春起义开始时，他很快切断了对突尼斯总统宰因·阿比丁·本·阿里和埃及总统穆巴拉克的支持，并允许受西方民主模式启发的抗议者实现政权更替。", "index": 2460}
{"en": "The return to autocracy in Egypt in 2013, via Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s coup d’état, certainly was not aided by the US or Europe, both of which supported the democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood.", "zh": "美国或欧洲肯定从未支持2013年埃及借助阿卜杜勒 - 法塔赫·塞西政变回归专制，美欧双方都对通过民主选举产生的穆斯林兄弟会表示支持。", "index": 2461}
{"en": "Europe has offered even more direct help to Arab countries in recent years.", "zh": "近年来，欧洲甚至为阿拉伯国家提供了更多的直接帮助。", "index": 2462}
{"en": "If it were not for Europe’s military intervention, Libyans would still be living under the tyrannical Muammar el-Qaddafi.", "zh": "如果不是欧洲的军事干预，利比亚人迄今将仍在残暴的卡扎菲统治下生活。", "index": 2463}
{"en": "True, Europe could have done more to prevent the ensuing chaos in Libya.", "zh": "的确，欧洲本来可以付出更大努力来阻止利比亚随后发生的混乱。", "index": 2464}
{"en": "But the people of Libya surely must take responsibility for the proliferation of competing militias that refuse to unite to save their state from total collapse.", "zh": "但利比亚民众无疑也应该对拒绝联合起来挽救国家陷入彻底崩溃命运的四处扩张的民兵武装负责。", "index": 2465}
{"en": "More broadly, though the West – especially the US – has made grave policy errors in the Arab world over the last 50 years, external powers cannot be blamed entirely for the region’s meltdown.", "zh": "从更广义的角度讲，虽然西方 — — 尤其是美国 — — 过去50年来在阿拉伯世界的确犯下了严重的政策错误，但外部势力却不能完全对地区的危机负责。", "index": 2466}
{"en": "That is the result of a profound civilizational crisis – one that can be redressed only by the people of the Arab world.", "zh": "目前的局势是一场深刻的文明危机的结果 — — 只有阿拉伯世界的民众才能解决它。", "index": 2467}
{"en": "If Europe’s foreign policy is not responsible for the Arab world’s current turmoil, it certainly cannot be the reason for the rise of jihadism within its own borders.", "zh": "如果欧洲的外交政策并不承担阿拉伯世界当前局势混乱的责任，那么它无疑也不应是欧洲境内圣战主义崛起的理由。", "index": 2468}
{"en": "The real problem lies at home: a disastrous deficit of effective policies related to social justice, education, housing, and employment for young European Muslims.", "zh": "真正的问题其实在于国内：在于严重缺乏与欧洲穆斯林青年社会正义、教育、住房和就业相关的有效政策。", "index": 2469}
{"en": "Marginalization generates frustration, which is subsequently fed by growing Islamophobia and the rise of raucous right-wing movements throughout the continent.", "zh": "边缘化带来挫败感，日益严重的伊斯兰恐惧症和整个欧洲大陆吵吵嚷嚷的右翼运动崛起又为这种挫败感火上浇油。", "index": 2470}
{"en": "This link is apparent in the fact that the majority of European jihadists come from underprivileged backgrounds.", "zh": "欧洲圣战者绝大多数来自底层证明了这种联系确实存在。", "index": 2471}
{"en": "Not particularly well versed in the true teachings of Islam, and lacking opportunities to improve their lives, they become easy prey for extremists.", "zh": "他们既缺乏对伊斯兰教教义的真正理解，也缺乏改善生活的实际机会，因此非常容易成为极端分子的猎物。", "index": 2472}
{"en": "Jihadism, with its absolute certainty and grand mission, offers a sense of purpose, pride, and identity – not to mention adventure – and an outlet for their anger against the “home” that has denied them those things.", "zh": "圣战主义以其绝对的确定性和庄严的使命感为这些迷茫青年提供了目的感、自豪感和自我认同 — — 更不用说还有冒险的机会 — — 此外还为他们提供了对剥夺其上述权利的“家园”发泄愤怒情绪的出口。", "index": 2473}
{"en": "The story of America’s Muslims is the measure of Europe’s failure.", "zh": "美国的穆斯林现状凸显了欧洲的失败政策。", "index": 2474}
{"en": "Like most Americans, Muslims in the US maintain a certain amount of faith in the American dream.", "zh": "像绝大多数美国人一样，美国穆斯林仍然在一定程度上相信美国梦。", "index": 2475}
{"en": "They are mostly middle class, and, despite all the talk about rising economic inequality, they have not given up on the belief that, in the US, hard work and initiative are rewarded.", "zh": "他们大多是中产阶级，而且尽管所有人都在谈论经济不��等日益严重，但他们并没有放弃在美国辛勤工作和积极主动就能得到回报的信仰。", "index": 2476}
{"en": "America is a country of immigrants, with a dynamic economy that has enabled newcomers, time and again, to achieve great success.", "zh": "美国是一个移民之国，其充满活力的经济一次次的让新移民取得了巨大的成功。", "index": 2477}
{"en": "In Europe, by contrast, improving one’s social standing has always been very difficult; and, at a time of economic stagnation and staggeringly high unemployment, it is not getting any easier.", "zh": "而欧洲的情况则恰恰相反，提升一个人的社会地位一向是相当困难的；而且在经济停滞和失业率惊人高企的情况下，提升社会地位的难度更是可想而知。", "index": 2478}
{"en": "Socially, America also offers something to Muslims that Europe does not.", "zh": "在社会领域，美国也能赋予穆斯林某些欧洲无法赋予的宽容。", "index": 2479}
{"en": "Its fundamentally religious culture enables Muslims to retain their identity to a far greater extent than in secular Europe.", "zh": "美国本质上的宗教文化使得穆斯林能比在世俗的欧洲在更大程度上保留对自身身份的认同。", "index": 2480}
{"en": "Indeed, America’s core values – personal responsibility and constitutional patriotism – can be easier for Muslims to swallow than Europe’s more aggressively secular brand of liberalism.", "zh": "事实上，美国个人责任和宪法爱国主义的核心价值观相比欧洲更激进的世俗自由主义对穆斯林而言更容易接受。", "index": 2481}
{"en": "As a result, integration and assimilation tend to be easier for Muslims in America.", "zh": "因此，穆斯林移民在美国的融合和同化更容易取得成功。", "index": 2482}
{"en": "All of this suggests that Europe must look inward to address homegrown jihadism effectively.", "zh": "所有这些表明，欧洲必须自我审视才能有效解决内生性的圣战主义问题。", "index": 2483}
{"en": "This does not mean that it should temper its secularism, much less its liberal values.", "zh": "这并不意味着它必须改变世俗主义，更不意味着要改变自由主义价值观。", "index": 2484}
{"en": "Rather, Europe must breathe life into its own “European dream,” ensuring that all people have access to real opportunities to improve their lives.", "zh": "恰恰相反，欧洲必须为“欧洲梦”注入新的活力，确保所有人都有切实的机会改善自己的生活。", "index": 2485}
{"en": "Otherwise, it will face a lost generation of millions of young Europeans – Muslim and otherwise.", "zh": "否则，它将面临着由成百上千万欧洲年轻人组成的失去的一代 — — 其中既包括穆斯林也包括欧洲其他民众。", "index": 2486}
{"en": "The New Climate Economics", "zh": "新气候经济学", "index": 2487}
{"en": "NEW YORK – This Friday, in its latest comprehensive assessment of the evidence on global warming, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will show that the world’s climate scientists are more certain than ever that human activity – largely combustion of fossil fuels – is causing temperatures and sea levels to rise.", "zh": "纽约—本周五，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）对全球变暖的证据的最新评估表明，世界气候科学家比此前任何时候都要确定人类活动 — — 主要是燃烧化石燃料 — — 正在引起气温和海平面升高。", "index": 2488}
{"en": "In recent years, a series of extreme weather events – including Hurricane Sandy in New York and New Jersey, floods in China, and droughts in the American Midwest, Russia, and many developing countries – have caused immense damage.", "zh": "近几年来，一系列极端天气事件 — — 包括纽约和新泽西的桑迪飓风、中国的洪水和美国中西部、俄罗斯和众多发展中国家的旱灾 — — 造成了严重伤害。", "index": 2489}
{"en": "Last week, Mexico experienced simultaneous hurricanes in the Pacific and in the Gulf of Mexico that devastated towns and cities in their path.", "zh": "上周，墨西哥经历了太平洋和墨西哥湾飓风的同时袭击，飓风过境之处，村镇和城市俱毁。", "index": 2490}
{"en": "Climate change will be a major driver of such events, and we risk much worse.", "zh": "气候变化是此类事件的重要因素，而且我们面临的局面越来越糟糕。", "index": 2491}
{"en": "This puts a new debate center stage: how to reconcile increased action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with strong economic growth.", "zh": "这把一个新争论带到了舞台中央：如何协调越来越多的行动以降低伴随强劲经济增长出现的温室气体排放。", "index": 2492}
{"en": "It is a debate that is already mired in controversy.", "zh": "这一争论已经迷失在争议之中。", "index": 2493}
{"en": "As most countries have started making serious investments in renewable energy, and many are implementing carbon prices and regulations, critics complain that such policies may undermine growth.", "zh": "大部分国家已开始动真格投资于可再生能源，许多国家更是开始实施碳定价和监管，与此同时，批评家指责这些政策会阻碍增长。", "index": 2494}
{"en": "With the global economy still recovering from the 2008 financial crash, higher energy costs – not yet fully offset by greater energy efficiency – are worrying business and political leaders.", "zh": "全球经济仍在从2008年金融动荡中复苏，更高的能源价格 — — 无法通过提高能源效率充分抵消 — — 让商业和政治领袖颇为担心。", "index": 2495}
{"en": "The advent of shale gas has confused the energy debate even more.", "zh": "页岩气的出现让能源争论更加扑朔迷离了。", "index": 2496}
{"en": "If gas is substituted for coal, it can be a useful bridge to a low-carbon future.", "zh": "用气代替煤不失为通往低碳未来的捷径。", "index": 2497}
{"en": "But astonishingly, it is coal, the dirtiest fuel, that is experiencing the sharpest increase in use.", "zh": "但是，令人震惊的是，用量增加最剧烈的恰恰是最肮脏的燃料 — — 煤。", "index": 2498}
{"en": "Companies and investors are hedging their bets by taking a few resource-efficiency measures and investing in some low-carbon assets, but leaving their high-carbon portfolios and activities largely intact.", "zh": "公司和投资者通过采取些许资源效率措施、投资些许低碳资产对冲赌注，但他们的高碳投资组合和行为并未出现多大改变。", "index": 2499}
{"en": "Policy vacillation in some countries has not helped.", "zh": "一些国家的政策犹豫也不利于大局。", "index": 2500}
{"en": "Advocates of stronger action respond that low-carbon investments can generate much stronger, cleaner growth.", "zh": "加强行动的支持者回应道，低碳投资可以带来强劲得多、洁净得多的增长。", "index": 2501}
{"en": "They point to the savings available from energy efficiency, and to the market opportunities generated by clean-energy technologies as the processes of learning and discovery take hold.", "zh": "他们指出，随着学习和发现的进行，能源效率能带来节约，而清洁能源技术能带来市场机会。", "index": 2502}
{"en": "They seek to demonstrate the benefits that a more sustainable pattern of development can bring to the world’s cities, to people’s health (from the reduction in air pollution), to energy security, and to the ability of the world’s poor to access energy.", "zh": "他们试图证明，更加可持续的发展模式给世界各大城市 、 （ 通过减少空气污染）给人民健康、给能源安全带来诸多好处，也能让穷人获得更多的能源。", "index": 2503}
{"en": "And they propose green bonds and public investment banks to finance new infrastructure and jobs at a time when world interest rates are low and demand is depressed in many countries.", "zh": "他们建议发行绿色债券，敦促上市投资银行利用世界利率较低、许多国家需求受抑制的时机为新基础设施和就业提供资金支持。", "index": 2504}
{"en": "These are serious economic debates, but too often they have become entangled in ideological disputes about the appropriate response to the economic crisis and the value of government intervention in markets.", "zh": "这些都是很严肃的经济学争论，但它们往往演化为关于经济危机的合理应对措施和政府干预市场的价值的意识形态纠纷。", "index": 2505}
{"en": "That is regrettable.", "zh": "这实在令人遗憾。", "index": 2506}
{"en": "Climate change is not a partisan issue, and climate policy is essentially market-based.", "zh": "气候变化并非派系之争，气候政策从根本上说也是基于市场的。", "index": 2507}
{"en": "It is about correcting market failures so that markets and entrepreneurship can play their proper role of ensuring innovation and efficient resource allocation.", "zh": "这是关于纠正市场失灵从而使市场和企业家精神能够在保证创新和有效资源配置中扮演适当角色的问题。", "index": 2508}
{"en": "In order to escape this impasse, we have helped to launch the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.", "zh": "为了跳出这一僵局，我们协助成立了全球经济和气候委员会（Global Commission on the Economy and Climate ） 。", "index": 2509}
{"en": "The Commission’s New Climate Economy project brings together seven leading policy research institutes from six continents, overseen by a panel of former heads of government and finance ministers and prominent business leaders, and advised by a panel of leading economists from across the world.", "zh": "委员会的新气候经济（New Climate Economy）项目集合了六大洲的七大领先政策研究机构，由前政府首脑、财政部长和注明商业领袖组成的专家委员会监督，由全球著名经济学家组成的专家委员会担任顾问。", "index": 2510}
{"en": "Its purpose is to provide authoritative new evidence concerning how governments and businesses can achieve stronger economic growth while simultaneously addressing climate risks.", "zh": "其目的是提供关于政府和企业如何在实现更强的经济增长的同时纠正气候风险的权威新证据。", "index": 2511}
{"en": "Few governments or investors start from the standpoint of climate change.", "zh": "很少有政府或投资者以气候变化为出发点。", "index": 2512}
{"en": "They want to promote investment and economic growth, create jobs, stabilize public finances, expand markets, turn profits, ensure reliable energy and food supplies, produce goods and services, reduce poverty, and build cities.", "zh": "他们想促进投资和经济增长、创造就业岗位、稳定公共财政、扩大市场、带来利润、保证可靠的能源和食品供给、生产商品和服务、减少贫困以及建设城市。", "index": 2513}
{"en": "So the primary question that we need to ask is not whether we can reduce emissions, but how public policy can help to achieve these core goals while reducing emissions and building a more climate-resilient economy.", "zh": "因此，我们需要问的主要问题不是能否减少排放，而是公共政策如何帮助在实现这些核心目标的同时减少排放、建设气候恢复力强的经济。", "index": 2514}
{"en": "There is now a lot of experience around the world in this area.", "zh": "在这方面，全世界范围有许多经验可以遵循。", "index": 2515}
{"en": "When the Stern Review on the economics of climate change was published seven years ago, the subject was largely theoretical.", "zh": "七年前关于气候变化经济学的《斯特恩报告 》 （ Stern Review）发布时，这个主题基本上还停留在理论阶段。", "index": 2516}
{"en": "Now countries at all stages of development are pursuing new patterns of economic growth that take climate into account.", "zh": "如今，处于各个发展阶段的各国都在追求新的考虑气候问题的经济增长模式。", "index": 2517}
{"en": "Germany, for example, is planning the world’s most ambitious low-carbon energy transition, based on energy conservation and renewables.", "zh": "比如，德国正在规划全世界最有雄心的低碳经济转型，该计划以节能和可再生为基础。", "index": 2518}
{"en": "South Korea has made “green growth” a central economic goal.", "zh": "韩国将“绿色增长”制定为核心经济目标。", "index": 2519}
{"en": "Mexico’s 2012 General Law on Climate Change has put it on course for a major increase in clean power.", "zh": "墨西哥2012年气候变化一般法（General Law on Climate Change）将大大提高清洁电力的用量。", "index": 2520}
{"en": "China has placed the industrial development of green technologies at the top of its agenda.", "zh": "中国将绿色技术产业开发作为其日程的最优先项目。", "index": 2521}
{"en": "Ethiopia is seeking to move to lower-carbon farming.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚正在寻求发展低碳农业。", "index": 2522}
{"en": "Brazil has significantly reduced the rate of deforestation in the Amazon.", "zh": "巴西极大地降低了亚马孙森林的采伐速度。", "index": 2523}
{"en": "Some major businesses are providing powerful examples of what is possible.", "zh": "一些大企业提供了有力的例子，让我们知道可以做到什么程度。", "index": 2524}
{"en": "Unilever has committed to the sustainable sourcing of agricultural and forest products.", "zh": "联合利华承诺使用可持续的农业和森林产品源。", "index": 2525}
{"en": "Coca-Cola is phasing out all use of climate-polluting hydrofluorocarbons.", "zh": "可口可乐正在彻底停用污染气候的氢氟碳化合物。", "index": 2526}
{"en": "The retail giant Wal-Mart is driving emissions reduction throughout its supply chain.", "zh": "零售巨头沃尔玛在其全供应链推动减排运动。", "index": 2527}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the World Bank and the European Investment Bank have stopped lending to high-emission coal plants.", "zh": "与此同时，世界银行和欧洲投资银行也不再向高排放煤电贷款。", "index": 2528}
{"en": "Yet genuine questions remain about how fast economies should move on to a low-carbon path, and the most effective way to do so.", "zh": "但真正的问题依然存在 — — 经济可以以多快的速度迈向低碳之路，以及什么通过什么办法实现最有效。", "index": 2529}
{"en": "Some low-carbon policies have clearly been expensive, while other, apparently cost-effective options, have not been pursued at all.", "zh": "一些低碳政策显然代价十分高昂，而一些显然成本很低的选择则完全没有人实施。", "index": 2530}
{"en": "Any structural transformation involves costs, trade-offs, and uncertainties, and it is vital that we understand these properly.", "zh": "任何结构性变化都包括成本、权衡和不确定性，合理地理解这些因素十分重要。", "index": 2531}
{"en": "Powerful interests will, of course, oppose any low-carbon transition, dismissing and often drowning out those who stand to benefit.", "zh": "当然，强大的既得利益会反对一切低碳转型，打压甚至挤出低碳转型的受益者。", "index": 2532}
{"en": "That makes it even more important to clarify the choices.", "zh": "这意味着澄清选择更加重要了。", "index": 2533}
{"en": "As science makes clear how imperative the climate question is, it is time for economists and policymakers to explain how it can be answered.", "zh": "科学已经清楚地证明了气候问题的紧迫性，现在该轮到经济学家和决策者来解释如何应对这一紧迫性了。", "index": 2534}
{"en": "The Mouse Click that Roared", "zh": "咆哮的鼠标", "index": 2535}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Until recently, cyber security has primarily interested computer geeks and cloak-and-dagger types.", "zh": "美国剑桥—直到最近，关注网络安全的还大多是电脑极客和阴谋论者。", "index": 2536}
{"en": "The Internet’s creators, part of a small, enclosed community, were very comfortable with an open system in which security was not a primary concern.", "zh": "互联网的创造者 — — 他们属于一个封闭的小圈子 — — 对安全并非主要顾虑的开放系统感到十分满意。", "index": 2537}
{"en": "But, with some three billion or so users on the Web nowadays, that very openness has become a serious vulnerability; indeed, it is endangering the vast economic opportunities that the Internet has opened for the world.", "zh": "但是，如今有三十亿网络使用者，这一开放性成了严重的弱点；事实上，这个弱点正在威胁到互联网为世界打开的广袤的经济机会海洋。", "index": 2538}
{"en": "A “cyber attack” can take any number of forms, including simple probes, defacement of Web sites, denial-of-service attacks, espionage, and destruction of data.", "zh": "“网络攻击”可以以数不清的形式出现，包括简单的侵入、涂鸦网站、拒绝服务攻击、间谍活动和毁坏数据。", "index": 2539}
{"en": "And the term “cyber war,” though best defined as any hostile action in cyberspace that amplifies or is equivalent to major physical violence, remains equally protean, reflecting definitions of “war” that range from armed conflict to any concerted effort to solve a problem (for example, “war on poverty”).", "zh": "“网络战”一词也是千变万化 — — 尽管最好的定义是放大或等同于重大实体侵犯的网络空间上的敌对行动 — — 可以反映从武装冲突到齐心协力解决问题（比如“减贫战 ” ） 在内的一系列“战”的定义。", "index": 2540}
{"en": "Cyber war and cyber espionage are largely associated with states, while cyber crime and cyber terrorism are mostly associated with non-state actors.", "zh": "网络战和网络间谍大多与国家有关，与此同时，网络犯罪和网络恐怖主义往往由非国家行动者发出。", "index": 2541}
{"en": "The highest costs currently stem from espionage and crime; but, over the next decade or so, cyber war and cyber terrorism may become greater threats than they are today.", "zh": "目前，最大的成本来自间谍和犯罪；但是，在未来十年中，网络战和网络恐怖主义有可能成为比今天更大的威胁。", "index": 2542}
{"en": "Moreover, as alliances and tactics evolve, the categories may increasingly overlap.", "zh": "此外，同盟和战术的演化，分类也可能日渐重叠。", "index": 2543}
{"en": "Terrorists might buy malware from criminals, and governments might find it useful to hide behind both.", "zh": "恐怖主义可以从犯罪分子那里买来恶意软件，政府可能会在背后指使。", "index": 2544}
{"en": "Some people argue that deterrence does not work in cyberspace, owing to the difficulties of attribution.", "zh": "有人认为，威慑在网络空间中并不管用，因为其来源难以确定。", "index": 2545}
{"en": "But that is facile: inadequate attribution affects inter-state deterrence as well, yet it still operates.", "zh": "但这简直是信口开河：不充分的来源确定同样影响着国家间的威慑，但威慑仍然常常被使用。", "index": 2546}
{"en": "Even when the source of an attack can be successfully disguised under a “false flag,” governments may find themselves sufficiently enmeshed in symmetrically interdependent relationships such that a major attack would be counterproductive.", "zh": "即便攻击源头可以用“伪旗”成功掩盖，政府仍可能陷入对称依赖的关系，让重大攻击产生适得其反的效果。", "index": 2547}
{"en": "China, for example, would lose from an attack that severely damaged the American economy, and vice versa.", "zh": "比如，中国可能因为严重危害美国经济的袭击中受到损失，反之亦然。", "index": 2548}
{"en": "An unknown attacker may also be deterred by cyber-security measures.", "zh": "未知的攻击者还能被网络安全措施威慑。", "index": 2549}
{"en": "If firewalls are strong, or redundancy and resilience allow quick recovery, or the prospect of a self-enforcing response (“an electric fence”) seems possible, an attack becomes less attractive.", "zh": "如果防火墙够强，或冗余性和恢复力足以让其快速回复，或有可能产生自我强化反应 （ “ 电围栏 ” ） ，实施攻击就会变得不再具有吸引力。", "index": 2550}
{"en": "While accurate attribution of the ultimate source of a cyber attack is sometimes difficult, the determination does not have to be airtight.", "zh": "尽管准确地确定网络攻击的最终来源有时十分困难，但也不是一筹莫展。", "index": 2551}
{"en": "To the extent that false flags are imperfect and rumors of the source of an attack are widely deemed credible (though not legally probative), reputational damage to an attacker’s soft power may contribute to deterrence.", "zh": "由于伪旗的不完善性以及关于攻击来源的传闻被广泛认为是可靠的（尽管未经法律验证 ） ， 对攻击者软实力的名誉伤害也能形成威慑。", "index": 2552}
{"en": "Finally, a reputation for offensive capability and a declared policy that keeps open the means of retaliation can help to reinforce deterrence.", "zh": "最后，攻击能力的名声和公开宣布以牙还牙政策也有助于增强威慑。", "index": 2553}
{"en": "Of course, non-state actors are harder to deter, so improved defenses such as pre-emption and human intelligence become important in such cases.", "zh": "当然，非国家行动者更难侦测，因此改善防线 — — 比如先发制人和人力情报 — — 在这类案件中就变得十分重要。", "index": 2554}
{"en": "But, among states, even nuclear deterrence was more complex than it first looked, and that is doubly true of deterrence in the cyber domain.", "zh": "但是，在国家之间，即便是核威慑也比乍看上去更复杂，在网络空间中的威慑更是如此。", "index": 2555}
{"en": "Given its global nature, the Internet requires a degree of international cooperation to be able to function.", "zh": "出于其全球性，互联网需要一定程度的国际合作才能运行。", "index": 2556}
{"en": "Some people call for the cyber equivalent of formal arms-control treaties.", "zh": "有人呼吁制定互联网版的正式武器控制条约。", "index": 2557}
{"en": "But differences in cultural norms and the difficulty of verification would make such treaties hard to negotiate or implement.", "zh": "但文化规范差异和查证困难将使这类条约难以谈判和实施。", "index": 2558}
{"en": "At the same time, it is important to pursue international efforts to develop rules of the road that can limit conflict.", "zh": "与此同时，追求制定防止冲突的国际规则十分重要。", "index": 2559}
{"en": "The most promising areas for international cooperation today most likely concern problems posed for states by third parties such as criminals and terrorists.", "zh": "如今，最有希望的国际合作领域是第三方给国家带来的问题，比如犯罪和恐怖主义。", "index": 2560}
{"en": "Russia and China have sought to establish a treaty establishing broad international oversight of the Internet and “information security,” which would prohibit deception and embedding malicious code or circuitry that could be activated in the event of war.", "zh": "俄罗斯和中国寻求制定条约建立对互联网和“信息安全”的全面国际监督，该条约将禁止欺诈和嵌入在可以在战争事件发生时激活的恶意代码和电路。", "index": 2561}
{"en": "But the US has argued that arms-control measures banning offensive capabilities could weaken defenses against attacks and would be impossible to verify or enforce.", "zh": "但美国认为限制攻击能力的武器控制措施会削弱针对攻击的防御，并且难以论证和强制实施。", "index": 2562}
{"en": "Likewise, in terms of political values, the US has resisted agreements that could legitimize authoritarian governments’ censorship of the Internet – for example, by the “great firewall of China.”", "zh": "类似地，在政治价值方面，美国拒绝了可能让独裁政府审查互联网合法化的协定 — — 比如“中国防火长城 ” 。", "index": 2563}
{"en": "Moreover, cultural differences impede any broad agreements on regulating online content.", "zh": "此外，文化差异阻止了任何监管在线内容的广泛协定。", "index": 2564}
{"en": "Nonetheless, it may be possible to identify behaviors like cyber crime that are illegal in many domestic jurisdictions.", "zh": "尽管如此，在本国司法辖区内鉴别网络犯罪等非法行为仍是可能的。", "index": 2565}
{"en": "Trying to limit all intrusions would be impossible, but one could start with cyber crime and cyber terrorism involving non-state parties.", "zh": "阻止一切侵入或许不可行，但可以从网络犯罪和非国家行动方参与的网络恐怖主义着手。", "index": 2566}
{"en": "Here, major states would have an interest in limiting damage by agreeing to cooperate on forensics and controls.", "zh": "在这方面，通过同意在取证和控制方面达成一致来限制伤害符合大国的利益。", "index": 2567}
{"en": "The transnational cyber domain poses new questions about the meaning of national security.", "zh": "跨国网络空间给我们带来了关于国家安全含义的新问题。", "index": 2568}
{"en": "Some of the most important responses must be national and unilateral, focused on hygiene, redundancy, and resilience.", "zh": "一些最重要的应对措施必须是国家层面的、单方面的，专注于清扫、冗余性和恢复力。", "index": 2569}
{"en": "It is likely, however, that major governments will soon discover that the insecurity created by non-state cyber actors will require closer cooperation among governments.", "zh": "但是，很有可能大国政府很快就会发现，由非国家网络行动者造成的不完全将要求各国政府间进行紧密合作。", "index": 2570}
{"en": "A Practical Agenda for Revolutionary Times", "zh": "革命时代的务实日程", "index": 2571}
{"en": "OXFORD – As the world’s financial leaders gather for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings, many working people around the world are demanding radical change, because they sense that their voices are not being heard.", "zh": "牛津—在世界金融领导人齐聚国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行春季会议之际，全世界许多工作人口正在要求彻底的变革，因为他们认为他们的声音没有得到聆听。", "index": 2572}
{"en": "Those who are supposed to represent them should not ignore this anger and frustration any longer.", "zh": "他们的所谓代表们不应该继续忽视这一愤怒和失望了。", "index": 2573}
{"en": "According to the 2017 Edelman Trust Barometer, the public’s confidence in the status quo has collapsed worldwide, owing to widely held concerns about globalization, innovation, immigration, the erosion of social values, and corruption.", "zh": "据2017年阿德尔曼信任报告（2017 Edelman Trust Barometer ） ， 全世界对现状的公共信心都出现了暴跌，原因在于人们对全球化、创新、移民、社会价值观的堕落和腐败普遍感到担忧。", "index": 2574}
{"en": "At the same time, the response from elites who regard themselves as the guardians of economic growth has sometimes made matters worse.", "zh": "与此同时，自视为经济增长的守护神的精英的反应有时令情况雪上加霜。", "index": 2575}
{"en": "If they think they can allay public concerns simply by explaining the benefits of the current global economic system and tweaking policies to compensate those left behind, they are in for a rude awakening.", "zh": "如果他们认为他们可以仅凭解释当前全球经济体系的好处，以及调整政策补偿落后群体就能平息公众质疑的话，他们将遭到当头棒喝。", "index": 2576}
{"en": "Earlier this month, the IMF, World Bank, and World Trade Organization published a joint report extolling the benefits of trade as a driver of productivity growth, competition, and consumer choice.", "zh": "本月早些时候，IMF、世界银行和世界贸易组织发布了一份联合报告，报告称赞贸易是生产率增长、竞争和消费选择的推进器。", "index": 2577}
{"en": "The report’s argument in favor of free trade is not new, nor is its recommendation that “active labor-market policies” be used to cushion the blow of lost jobs and livelihoods.", "zh": "这一支持自由贸易的观点并不新鲜，而报告中所提出的用“积极的劳动力市场政策”支持丧失工作和生计的群体的建议也是了无新意。", "index": 2578}
{"en": "What is new is that repeating these claims, without also addressing people’s deeper concerns, can now do more harm than good.", "zh": "新的情况是，反复强调这些观点，而不同时解决人们更深层次的担忧，很有可能弊大于利。", "index": 2579}
{"en": "Global public opinion has changed dramatically in recent years.", "zh": "全球公共观点在近几年中发生了剧烈变化。", "index": 2580}
{"en": "A majority of people worldwide – and up to 72% of people in France and Italy – now believe that the system has failed them.", "zh": "大部分世界人口 — — 法国和意大利已经高达72 % — —现在相信体系辜负了他们。", "index": 2581}
{"en": "Moreover, only 29% of people across 28 countries now trust government leaders, while three-quarters of those surveyed say they trust reformers who would upend the status quo.", "zh": "此外，在28个国家中只有29%的群众信任政府领导人，而四分之三的受访者表示他们信任将颠覆现状的改革家。", "index": 2582}
{"en": "These findings suggest that those defending free trade have lost credibility with the people they hope to persuade.", "zh": "这些发现表明，自由贸易的捍卫者已经失去了在他们希望说服的群众中的信誉。", "index": 2583}
{"en": "World leaders need to recognize that today’s populist revolts are being fueled by a sense of lost dignity – a sentiment that does not factor into most policymakers’ prescription for economic growth and compensatory payments.", "zh": "世界领导人需要认识到，当今民粹主义反动正在受到一种失去尊严的感觉的推动 — — 而这种感觉并没有在大部分决策者为经济增长和补偿性支付所开出的药方中获得考虑。", "index": 2584}
{"en": "Working-class voters have lashed out because they feel not just economically abandoned, but also socially disdained and culturally marginalized.", "zh": "工作阶级选民群情激奋，因为他们不但觉得自己在经济上遭到了抛弃，在社会上和文化上也遭到了鄙视和边缘化。", "index": 2585}
{"en": "Their vote is the only means they have left to hit back at the establishment.", "zh": "他们的选票是他们眼中唯一可以反击建制的手段。", "index": 2586}
{"en": "To address the public’s concerns requires a three-part agenda.", "zh": "解决公众担忧需要一套三部分的日程。", "index": 2587}
{"en": "The first order of business should be to reach out to those who feel voiceless and unrepresented.", "zh": "首要任务是向觉得没人聆听和代表自己的群体抛出橄榄枝。", "index": 2588}
{"en": "During the US presidential campaign, Donald Trump tapped into this sentiment when he vowed to punish any company that moves jobs to China or Mexico.", "zh": "在美国总统选战期间，特朗普就利用了这一情绪，承诺要惩罚所有将工作岗位迁往中国或墨西哥的公司。", "index": 2589}
{"en": "As the filmmaker Michael Moore explained prior to the election, American working-class voters were desperate to hear someone promise to take on big business.", "zh": "电影制片人迈克尔·摩尔（Michael Moore）在大选前解释道，美国工作阶级选民急切地想听到有人承诺向大企业开刀。", "index": 2590}
{"en": "The fact that it took a populist plutocrat to do it underscores the extent to which the American labor movement has been extinguished.", "zh": "由一位民粹主义财阀来做这件事这一事实让美国劳工运动的穷途末路表露无遗。", "index": 2591}
{"en": "Political parties that originally emerged from the labor movement have long since shifted to the “center.”", "zh": "最初从劳工运动发展而来的政党早已转向了“中间派 ” 。", "index": 2592}
{"en": "They now accept political contributions from big business, and have accordingly adopting the language of common prosperity and “consensus politics,” leaving the many working people who do not share in that prosperity and consensus feeling disregarded and displaced.", "zh": "如今，它们接受大企业的政治献金，并据此举起了共同繁荣和“共识政治”的大旗，让许多未能从这一繁荣和共识中分得一杯羹的工作阶级觉得受到了无视和迷茫。", "index": 2593}
{"en": "Second, the quality of work, and the status that it confers, must be improved.", "zh": "其次，工作的质量，以及工作所带来的地位，必须改善。", "index": 2594}
{"en": "In wealthy countries, precarious, poorly paid, and even dangerous forms of employment are becoming increasingly common.", "zh": "在富裕国家，不稳定、低薪乃至危险的就业形式正变得日益普遍。", "index": 2595}
{"en": "A recent Bloomberg Businessweek story describes how temporary workers at auto-parts factories in Alabama are paid just $7.25 per hour, and must work in hazardous conditions with no safety training.", "zh": "新一期《彭博商业周刊》上的一篇报道描述了亚拉巴马州汽车零件厂的临时工每小时只能挣7.25美元，并且必须在高风险环境中工作，还得不到安全培训。", "index": 2596}
{"en": "In 2010, these workers suffered work injuries at a 50% higher rate than unionized auto-parts workers elsewhere.", "zh": "2010年，这些工人的工伤率比其他地方的非工会成员汽车零件工人高50 % 。", "index": 2597}
{"en": "As the OECD has shown, “non-standard” work is proliferating globally.", "zh": "经合组织指出 ， “ 非标准”工作正在全球兴起。", "index": 2598}
{"en": "This trend is contributing to deteriorating working conditions, making workers feel increasingly helpless and vulnerable.", "zh": "这一趋势导致了工作环境的恶化，让工人觉得越来越无助和脆弱。", "index": 2599}
{"en": "Reversing it will require robust standards to ensure workplace safety, fair pay, and the right to enter into collective-bargaining arrangements.", "zh": "扭转这一状况需要制定严格的标准保证工作场所安全、公平薪资和参与集体议价安排的权利。", "index": 2600}
{"en": "Governments will have to intervene to set these standards, as they did during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries to improve abysmal conditions in factories.", "zh": "政府需要干预制定这些标准，一如它们在十九和二十世纪干预改善恶劣的工厂环境。", "index": 2601}
{"en": "Otherwise, businesses will not be able to behave decently, for fear of being undercut by unscrupulous competitors.", "zh": "否则，企业将无法体面地运行，因为它们面临着无良竞争者的恶性竞争。", "index": 2602}
{"en": "Finally, more opportunities must be created for the next generation – and not just economic opportunities.", "zh": "最后，必须为子孙后代创造更多机会 — — 不仅仅是经济机会。", "index": 2603}
{"en": "Since the 2008 financial crisis, many governments have reduced their investments in health, education, housing, and other forms of human capital.", "zh": "2008年金融危机以来，许多政府缩减了它们在卫生、教育、住房和其他形式的人力资本上的投资。", "index": 2604}
{"en": "Many have also cut support for the unemployed, homeless, or indebted.", "zh": "许多政府还削减了对失业者、无家可归者和负债者的支持。", "index": 2605}
{"en": "As a result, those who have fallen behind are deprived not just of resources, but, more important, the chance to pursue their aspirations.", "zh": "结果，落后群体不但被剥夺了资源，跟重要的是，也被剥夺了追求理想的机会。", "index": 2606}
{"en": "As the IMF, World Bank, and WTO show in their report, free trade and globalization have certainly increased the size of the overall economic pie.", "zh": "IMF、世界银行和世贸组织在它们的报告中指出，自由贸易和全球化毫无疑问扩大了经济蛋糕的总规模。", "index": 2607}
{"en": "In theory, this should have expanded governments’ capacity to compensate those left behind and create the conditions for them to get ahead.", "zh": "理论上，这应该能提升政府补偿落后群体、为他们创造迎头赶上的条件的能力。", "index": 2608}
{"en": "In fact, the opposite has happened, owing to government cutbacks since 2008.", "zh": "事实上，情况正好相反，原因就在于2008年以来政府的紧缩政策。", "index": 2609}
{"en": "The establishment’s agenda has been failing for too long.", "zh": "建制派的日程早已失败多时。", "index": 2610}
{"en": "And as elites continue to proclaim the benefits of free trade and globalization, they are merely widening the chasm of popular mistrust.", "zh": "而在精英们继续鼓吹自由贸易和全球化的好处的时候，他们只能不断地扩大公众的信任裂痕。", "index": 2611}
{"en": "Over the past year, that mistrust has boiled over in many countries, with voters in one election after another rejecting the status quo.", "zh": "在过去的一年中，这一不信任在许多国家引爆，在一次又一次选举中，选民们都拒绝了现状。", "index": 2612}
{"en": "Piecemeal curbs on globalization will not be enough to quell the revolt.", "zh": "零敲碎打的全球化限制不足以平息这场反动。", "index": 2613}
{"en": "Instead, world leaders must leave their echo chamber, take ordinary people’s concerns seriously, diversify their views, and think about why so many have lost faith in the system.", "zh": "相反，世界领导人应该走出他们的回音室，认真对待普罗大众的担忧，多样化他们的观点，思考为什么如此多人失去了对体系的信念。", "index": 2614}
{"en": "The Development Costs of Homophobia", "zh": "同性恋的发展成本", "index": 2615}
{"en": "LONDON – As a gay man living in Nigeria, my biggest challenge was choosing between my sexuality and my job.", "zh": "伦敦—作为一个生活在尼日利亚的男同性恋，我最大的挑战是在性取向和工作之间做出选择。", "index": 2616}
{"en": "In 2004, I was at the start of my acting career.", "zh": "2004年，我开始了我的表演生涯。", "index": 2617}
{"en": "I had just left university, and I was featured in “Roses and Thorns,” a prime-time soap opera on Galaxy Television, one of Nigeria’s most popular TV stations. I was playing the role of “Richard,” the only son of a rich family who was having an affair with the house maid.", "zh": "当时我刚刚告别校园，在尼日利亚最受欢迎的电视台银河电视台（Galaxy Television）的黄金档肥皂剧《玫瑰与荆棘 》 （ Roses and Thorns）中扮演一个叫做“理查德 ” （ Richard）的角色，理查德是一个富裕家庭唯一的儿子，与女佣发生了一段罗曼史。", "index": 2618}
{"en": "Whispers were making the rounds about my private life, and I decided it was time to come out.", "zh": "关于我的私生活流言蜚语不断，我决定是时候站出来了。", "index": 2619}
{"en": "So I agreed to go on Nigeria’s most-watched television talk show to discuss my sexuality.", "zh": "因此我同意参加尼日利亚收视率最高的电视脱口秀讨论我的性取向。", "index": 2620}
{"en": "Almost immediately, my character was eliminated.", "zh": "我的角色几乎马上就被取消了。", "index": 2621}
{"en": "And when my job disappeared, so did my financial security.", "zh": "丢了饭碗的我也失去了财务保障。", "index": 2622}
{"en": "Like many gay men and lesbians in Africa, my choice was between economic freedom and mental imprisonment.", "zh": "与非洲的众多男女同性恋一样，我必须在经济自由和精神禁锢之间做出选择。", "index": 2623}
{"en": "This year, Nigeria and Uganda put in place draconian anti-gay laws, sparking a worldwide debate about human rights.", "zh": "今年，尼日利亚和乌干达都出台了严厉的反同性恋法律，激起了关于人权的全球争论。", "index": 2624}
{"en": "This debate has also started at the World Bank, whose president, Jim Yong Kim, recently declared that “institutionalized discrimination is bad for people and for societies.”", "zh": "这场争论也在世界银行展开，行长金墉最近宣布“制度化歧视对人类和社会不利。 ”", "index": 2625}
{"en": "Kim’s statement has invited criticism and controversy.", "zh": "金墉的表态招来了批评和争议。", "index": 2626}
{"en": "Often, as in Uganda and Nigeria, we hear the claim that opposition to official discrimination against gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people is simply a way to impose “Western” values on Africa.", "zh": "通常，与在乌干达和尼日利亚一样，我们总是听到这样的声音：反对针对男同性恋、女同性恋、双性恋和变性人的正式歧视纯属将“西方”价值强加于非洲头上。", "index": 2627}
{"en": "But this assumes that homosexuality is “un-African.”", "zh": "但这一论断意味着同性恋是“不非洲”的。", "index": 2628}
{"en": "And, despite the absence of evidence that any given country or continent does not have LGBT people (and ample evidence to the contrary), it is an assumption that an increasing number of African leaders have embraced.", "zh": "而尽管没有证据表明有任何一个国家或大洲不存在同性恋、双性恋和变性人（相反的证据倒是汗牛充栋 ） ， 但越来越多的非洲领导人都采取了这一观点。", "index": 2629}
{"en": "In 2006, President Olusegun Obasanjo, then Nigeria’s president, was among the first to do so.", "zh": "2006年，尼日利亚时任总统奥巴桑乔（Olusegun Obasanjo）是第一批接受这一观点的领导人之一。", "index": 2630}
{"en": "Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni followed suit when signing the anti-gay bill into law in 2014.", "zh": "乌干达总统穆塞维尼（Yoweri Museveni）紧随其后，在2014年也签署了反同性恋法案。", "index": 2631}
{"en": "Other leaders, from Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh to Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, have spoken in the same vein.", "zh": "其他领导人，如赞比亚总统贾梅（Yahya Jammeh）和津巴布韦总统穆加贝（Robert Mugabe）也持有相同态度。", "index": 2632}
{"en": "These official attitudes have caused significant suffering for Africa’s gays and lesbians.", "zh": "这些官方态度导致非洲同性恋群体备受伤害。", "index": 2633}
{"en": "Indeed, the price of homophobia for gay people in many African countries is painfully clear: legal penalties, social ostracism, and mob justice.", "zh": "事实上，在许多非洲国家，同性恋厌恶给同性恋群体造成的代价是显而易见的：法律伤害、社会排斥、暴民正义，等等。", "index": 2634}
{"en": "But here is what Africa’s anti-gay leaders miss: legal protections are not only a human-rights issue, but also an economic issue.", "zh": "但这方面正是非洲反同性恋领导人所忽略的：法律保护不仅是一个人权问题，也是一个经济问题。", "index": 2635}
{"en": "Kim is exactly right, and research has started measuring the economic costs of homophobia by exploring links between anti-gay sentiment and poverty in countries where laws and social attitudes proscribe same-sex relationships.", "zh": "金墉的声明是非常正确的，衡量同性恋厌恶的经济成本的研究已经开始，探索法律和社会观念排斥同性关系国家的反同性恋情绪与贫困的关系。", "index": 2636}
{"en": "M.V. Lee Badgett, an economist at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, presented the initial findings of a study of the economic implications of homophobia in India at a World Bank meeting in March 2014.", "zh": "在2014年3月举行的世界银行会议上，麻州大学安姆赫司特（Amherst）分校经济学家巴吉特（M.V. Lee Badgett）展示了关于印度同性恋厌恶的经济影响的初步研究发现。", "index": 2637}
{"en": "Badgett estimated that the Indian economy may have lost up to $23.1 billion in 2012 in direct health costs alone, owing to depression, suicide, and HIV treatment disparities caused by anti-gay stigma and discrimination.", "zh": "巴吉特估计，由于反同性恋羞辱和歧视造成的抑郁、自杀和艾滋病治疗差距，2012年印度经济光是直接健康损失成本就高达231亿美元。", "index": 2638}
{"en": "In addition to such concrete costs, being gay can bring violence, job loss, family rejection, harassment in schools, and pressure to marry.", "zh": "除了这些实实在在的成本，成为同性恋可能带来暴力、失去工作、被家庭排斥、在学校受到骚扰以及结婚压力。", "index": 2639}
{"en": "As a result, many gay people have less education, lower productivity, lower earnings, poorer health, and a shorter life expectancy.", "zh": "结果，许多同性恋教育程度低、生产率差、收入少、健康不良、寿命预期也较短。", "index": 2640}
{"en": "In Nigeria, I started the Independent Project for Equal Rights (TIERs) in 2005 to respond to the increasing number of people who were losing their jobs because of suspicions about their sexuality.", "zh": "在尼日利亚，我在2005年建立了平等权利独立计划（Independent Project for Equal Rights，简称TIGERs ） ， 以应对日益增多的因为性取向受怀疑而丢失工作的人。", "index": 2641}
{"en": "During our first year, we provided support for dozens of people.", "zh": "在该计划成立后的第一年里，我们为几十人提供了支持。", "index": 2642}
{"en": "One young man, “Olumide,” was given temporary housing after his family kicked him out for being gay.", "zh": "其中一位年轻人“奥鲁迈德 ” （ Olumide）因为身为同性恋而被逐出家门，我们为他提供了暂时居所。", "index": 2643}
{"en": "Another, “Uche,” was fired from his job as a chef after his sexuality was revealed.", "zh": "另一位名叫“乌奇 ” （ Uche）的人因为性取向暴露而失去了厨师工作。", "index": 2644}
{"en": "TIERs helped him with accommodation and capital to set up a catering business.", "zh": "TIERS帮他找到容身之所，并提供了做餐饮生意的资本。", "index": 2645}
{"en": "Though almost 10 years have passed, it is still not safe to use their real names.", "zh": "尽管时间已经过去了近10年，他们仍不能安全地使用真名。", "index": 2646}
{"en": "Across Africa, the economic costs of discrimination are increasing, in line with growing pressure on employers, landlords, health-care providers, educational institutions, and others to exclude LGBT people.", "zh": "在整个非洲，歧视的经济成本正在增加，相应地，雇主、地主、医疗服务提供者、家哦哦与机构和其他群体也在排斥同性恋、双性恋和变性人士。", "index": 2647}
{"en": "Today, the World Bank and other development agencies are mapping out the global development priorities that will follow the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which officially end in 2015 and included specific targets for promoting gender equality and empowering women as a strategy for economic growth.", "zh": "如今，世界银行和其他发展机构正在为千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals）之后的发展日程制定优先项。 千年发展目标将于2015年正式结束，其中包括了促进性别平等、将增加妇女权益作为经济增长战略等具体目标。", "index": 2648}
{"en": "Looking ahead, the Bank should take the same approach to LGBT rights and make legal protections for sexual orientation and gender identity a condition for countries receiving loans.", "zh": "放眼未来，世界银行应该对同性恋、双性恋和变性人群体权利采取同样的态度，将对性取向和性别认同的法律保护作为各国获得贷款的条件。", "index": 2649}
{"en": "Building recognition of women’s rights into the MDGs did not corrupt African cultures by imposing “Western” values; in fact, it strengthened many African countries, which now lead the world in the representation of women in government.", "zh": "将承认妇女权利作为千年发展目标之一并没有因为强加“西方”价值而损害非洲文化；事实上，这让许多非洲国家变得更加强大，如今，在女性占政府官员的比重方面它们已经成为全球领先者。", "index": 2650}
{"en": "By pursuing similar protections for LGBT people, international investment and aid can improve economic performance and strengthen respect for basic human rights.", "zh": "国际投资和援助可以通过为同性恋、双性恋和变性人群体争取同样的保护改善经济表现、强化对基本人权的尊重。", "index": 2651}
{"en": "The World Bank, always wary of entangling itself in “political” questions, emphasizes that it is not a global human-rights enforcer.", "zh": "世界银行总是担心自己牵涉“政治”问题，强调它不是一个全球人权推广机构。", "index": 2652}
{"en": "But it also increasingly recognizes its own role as a facilitator in helping Bank members realize their human-rights obligations.", "zh": "但它也日益承认其在帮助世行成员国认识到自身人权义务方面的促进作用。", "index": 2653}
{"en": "LGBT rights should be a test case.", "zh": "同性恋、双性恋和变性人权利应该成为对世行的考验。", "index": 2654}
{"en": "Aid to governments that permit specific social groups to be ostracized can carry very real economic costs.", "zh": "对允许排斥特定社会群体的政府的援助可能造成非常现实的经济代价。", "index": 2655}
{"en": "As new loans are considered, steps should be taken to ensure that the benefits are as inclusive as possible.", "zh": "在考虑新贷款时，应该采取措施确保让其收益尽可能具有包容性。", "index": 2656}
{"en": "If the Bank – which currently lends Nigeria almost $5.5 billion and expects to commit an additional $2 billion in each of the next four years – moved in this direction, other funders might follow.", "zh": "目前，世界银行对尼日利亚贷款大约在55亿美元，预计还将承诺在未来四年每年增加20亿美元。 世界银行正在朝这一方向前进，其他资金提供者可以跟进。", "index": 2657}
{"en": "Africa’s LGBT people desperately need such powerful allies in their struggle for human and economic rights.", "zh": "非洲的同性恋、双性恋和变性人群体急切地需要在人权和经济权利的斗争中获得这些强大的盟军。", "index": 2658}
{"en": "A Democratic Burma?", "zh": "民主缅甸？", "index": 2659}
{"en": "TOKYO – Historic transformations often happen when least expected.", "zh": "东京 — — 历史转型的发生总是出人意料的。", "index": 2660}
{"en": "Mikhail Gorbachev’s liberalizing policies of glasnost and perestroika in the Soviet Union emerged at one of the Cold War’s darkest hours, with US President Ronald Reagan pushing for strategic missile defense and the two sides fighting proxy wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere.", "zh": "在冷战正酣的时候，戈尔巴乔夫在苏联推出了改革与新思维的自由化政策，而美国总统里根推出了战略导弹防御系统，并在阿富汗和其他地区的实施双边战争代理人战争。", "index": 2661}
{"en": "Deng Xiaoping’s economic opening followed China’s bloody – and failed – invasion of Vietnam in 1978.", "zh": "邓小平的经济开放政策是在1978年中国对越南的血腥入侵（以失败告终）之后推行的。", "index": 2662}
{"en": "And South Africa’s last apartheid leader, F. W. de Klerk, was initially perceived as just another apologist for the system – hardly the man to free Nelson Mandela and oversee the end of white minority rule.", "zh": "而南非的末代种族隔离领导人德克拉克一开始被普遍认为只是旧体制的又一个捍卫者，几乎无人想到他会释放曼德拉并结束少数白人的统治。", "index": 2663}
{"en": "Now the world is suddenly asking whether Burma (Myanmar), after six decades of military dictatorship, has embarked on a genuine political transition that could end the country’s pariah status.", "zh": "现在，世界突然对缅甸产生了疑问，在60年的军事独裁之后，缅甸真的将开始走向终结该国贱民地位的实质性政治转型了吗？", "index": 2664}
{"en": "Is Burma, like South Africa under de Klerk, truly poised to emerge from a half-century of self-imposed isolation?", "zh": "缅甸会像德克拉克的南非一样，真正从半个世纪的自我封闭中走出来吗？", "index": 2665}
{"en": "And can Aung San Suu Kyi, the heroic opposition leader, and Thein Sein, Burma’s new president, engineer a political transition as skillfully and peacefully as Mandela and de Klerk did for South Africa in the early 1990’s?", "zh": "反对派的英雄领导人昂山素季和新任缅甸总统登盛能像20世纪90年代初曼德拉和德克拉克在南非那样推行巧妙而和平的政治转型吗？", "index": 2666}
{"en": "Despite her two decades of house arrest and isolation, Suu Kyi possesses two of the gifts that enabled Mandela to carry out his great task: a reassuring serenity and an utter lack of vindictiveness.", "zh": "尽管昂山素季经历了20年的软禁和隔离，但仍具有让曼德拉完成伟大成就的两大素质：心止如水和悲天悯人。", "index": 2667}
{"en": "As Burma’s authorities test reform, these gifts, together with her negotiating skills and, most of all, her vast moral authority, will be tested as never before.", "zh": "随着缅甸当局开始改革检验，这些素质和她的谈判技能 — — 以及最重要的，她在道德上的居高临下 — — 一起，将受到前所未有的考验。", "index": 2668}
{"en": "Moreover, unlike Mandela during his 27-year imprisonment, Suu Kyi has had her hopes raised – and dashed – before.", "zh": "除此以外，与曼德拉的27年铁窗生涯不同，昂山素季曾经有过燃起希望并几乎成功的经历。", "index": 2669}
{"en": "In the mid-1990’s, and again in 2002-2003, reconciliation between Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and the military junta seemed to be in the offing.", "zh": "在20世纪90年代中期以及2002—2003年间，昂山素季的国家民主联盟和军政当局几乎要形成妥协了。", "index": 2670}
{"en": "On both occasions, however, the regime’s hardliners gained the upper hand, crushing prospects for reform.", "zh": "但是，最终体制内的强硬派占了上风，扼杀了改革希望。", "index": 2671}
{"en": "Yet Suu Kyi, and much of the Burmese opposition, is beginning to admit that today’s political liberalization might be the real thing.", "zh": "但昂山素季以及大部分缅甸反对派均开始承认，今天的政治自由化可能是来真的。", "index": 2672}
{"en": "Because Burma’s generals say almost nothing in public, it is difficult to fathom why they allowed elections that elevated Thein Sein to power, or to explain their willingness to embrace dialogue with the long-suppressed opposition.", "zh": "由于缅甸的将军们在公开场合几乎总是缄口不言，因此很难看出他们为何会容许把登盛推上权力宝座的选举发生，也很难解释为什么他们愿意与被长期镇压的反对派展开对话。", "index": 2673}
{"en": "Recent events suggest one possible explanation: Burma’s rulers have grown wary of China’s almost smothering embrace – a result of the country’s international isolation.", "zh": "最近的事件显示了一种可能的解释：缅甸的当权者开始担心令人窒息的把持 — — 而这又是该国国际孤立的结果。", "index": 2674}
{"en": "Indeed, public protests against China’s commercial exploitation of Burma’s natural resources became so widespread that the government called a halt to construction by Chinese investors on the huge and environmentally damaging Myitsone Dam on the Irrawaddy River.", "zh": "事实上，缅甸公众反对中国对缅甸自然资源的商业开发已成燎原之势，以至于政府不得不叫停中国投资者可能造成严重环境破坏的瓦底江密松大坝项目。", "index": 2675}
{"en": "Thein Sein’s decision to halt the project is clearly an important policy shift.", "zh": "登盛叫停密松大坝项目的决定显然是一个清晰的政策转向信号。", "index": 2676}
{"en": "It is also a signal to the outside world that Burma’s new government may be much more willing than any of its predecessors to heed both public pressure and international opinion, both of which vehemently opposed the dam’s construction.", "zh": "此外，这还向外界表明，缅甸新政府要比其所有前任都更加愿意关心公众压力和国际舆论 — — 这两样均强烈反对大坝的建设。", "index": 2677}
{"en": "Almost simultaneously, Thein Sein offered even stronger signals that his was a very different Burmese administration: he freed political prisoners and invited Suu Kyi for direct talks with him.", "zh": "几乎是在同时，登盛还给出了一个更加强烈的信号，表明这一届政府是一个完全不同的政府：他释放了一批政治犯，并邀请昂山素季和他展开直接对话。", "index": 2678}
{"en": "Indeed, Suu Kyi now enjoys far greater freedom of movement than she has at any time since she received the Nobel Peace Prize 20 years ago, and the NLD recently announced that it will field candidates in the forthcoming by-elections to the country’s newly established parliament.", "zh": "事实上，如今昂山素季过着她20年前获得诺贝尔和平奖以来最自由的生活，国家民主联盟最近宣称，该组织将推举即将到来的新议会候补选举候选人。", "index": 2679}
{"en": "If Suu Kyi is permitted to campaign free of restraint, for both her own seat and to boost the electoral chances of her NLD colleagues, it will be clear that Thein Sein and his government are truly determined to bring their country in from the cold.", "zh": "不管昂山素季还是她的国家民主联盟同志，能够自由参选无疑表明登盛及其政府真心实意地想让缅甸走出铁幕。", "index": 2680}
{"en": "For both Suu Kyi and Thein Sein, every step from now on will be delicate, to be calibrated with the same care and deliberation that Mandela and de Klerk used in bridging their differences and leading their country out of isolation.", "zh": "对昂山素季和登盛来说，从现在开始的每一步都将如履薄冰，人们将用曼德拉和德克拉克拨乱反正、将祖国带出孤立状态的自由化举措来要求他们。", "index": 2681}
{"en": "But the international community, too, must act with great care.", "zh": "但国际社会也必须小心行事。", "index": 2682}
{"en": "While Thein Sein would undoubtedly wish to see the myriad economic and political sanctions imposed on Burma quickly lifted, it is too soon for a general easing of such measures.", "zh": "毫无疑问，登盛愿意看见施加于缅甸的大量经济和政治制裁迅速被取消，但现在就放松制裁还为时过早。", "index": 2683}
{"en": "But the outside world should demonstrate that every clear move toward greater political openness will merit more international political and economic engagement.", "zh": "不过，外部世界应该表明态度：任何朝增进政治开放方向的进步都会得到国际政治和经济回报。", "index": 2684}
{"en": "The Japan Investment Bank’s decision to invest in port development in Burma – essential if the economy, too, is to be opened – is one positive sign that the world will keep pace with Thein Sein step for step.", "zh": "日本投资银行决定投资缅甸的港口开发 — — 如果缅甸经济也开放的话，这将是很重要的 — — 这是一个积极的信号，表明世界对于登盛的每一次进步都会投桃报李。", "index": 2685}
{"en": "And US President Barack Obama’s decision to send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma to meet Thein Sein is another clear sign that the world is ready to end the country’s isolation.", "zh": "美国总统奥巴马决定派国务卿希拉里·克林顿前往缅甸会晤登盛是另一个信号，表明世界时刻准备着结束缅甸的孤立状态。", "index": 2686}
{"en": "Closer to home, ASEAN’s recent decision to give Burma a chance to chair the organization in 2014 underscores its neighbors’ desire for the country’s full participation in Asia’s growing prosperity.", "zh": "在近邻方面，东盟最近决定将2014年的主席国地位授予缅甸，这表明邻国也渴望缅甸完全融入亚洲的日渐繁荣。", "index": 2687}
{"en": "No one should rush to judgment yet, but Thein Sein’s decisions, at least so far, are beginning to resemble those of South Africa’s de Klerk when he initiated his country’s reform process.", "zh": "现在就下判断为时过早，但至少从目前来看，登盛的决定正走在德克拉克激活南非改革进程的道路上。", "index": 2688}
{"en": "Fortunately, Burma already has in Aung San Suu Kyi its very own Nelson Mandela.", "zh": "幸运的是，缅甸已经找到了自己的曼德拉 — — 昂山素季。", "index": 2689}
{"en": "A Devaluation Option for Southern Europe", "zh": "解决南欧问题的方案 — — 货币贬值", "index": 2690}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – This year is likely to mark a make-or-break ordeal for the euro.", "zh": "剑桥 — — 对于欧洲而言，今年很可能是欧元生死存亡的考验。", "index": 2691}
{"en": "The eurozone’s survival demands a credible solution to its long-running sovereign-debt crisis, which in turn requires addressing the two macroeconomic imbalances – external and fiscal – which are at the heart of that crisis.", "zh": "欧元区若要继续存在，则需要提出一项可靠的方案，解决其长期存在的主权债务危机问题，而这反过来又需要解决外部失衡和财政失衡两大问题，这两种宏观经济失衡问题正是这一危机的核心。", "index": 2692}
{"en": "The crisis has exposed the deep disparities in competitiveness that have developed within the eurozone.", "zh": "此次危机暴露出欧元区内部成员国在经济竞争力方面存在很大的差距。", "index": 2693}
{"en": "From 1996 to 2010, unit labor costs in Germany increased by just 8%, and by 13% in France. Compare that to 24% in Portugal, 35% in Spain, 37% in Italy, and a whopping 59% in Greece.", "zh": "从1996年到2010年，德国单位劳动力成本仅上升8 ％ ， 法国上升13 ％ ， 而葡萄牙上升24 % ， 西班牙上升35 ％ ， 意大利上升37 ％ ， 希腊上升则高达59 ％ 。", "index": 2694}
{"en": "The result has been large trade imbalances between eurozone countries, a problem compounded by large fiscal deficits and high levels of public debt in southern Europe (and France) – much of it owed to foreign creditors.", "zh": "这一问题导致欧元区内部国家贸易极度不平衡，而南欧和法国庞大财政赤字和公共债务庞大，使这一问题更为复杂，原因很大部分要归咎于外国债权人。", "index": 2695}
{"en": "Does addressing these imbalances require breaking up the eurozone?", "zh": "难道必须要欧元区解体才能解决这些贸易不平衡问题吗？", "index": 2696}
{"en": "Suppose, for example, that Portugal were to leave and re-introduce the escudo. The ensuing exchange-rate devaluation would immediately lower the price of Portugal’s exports, raise its import prices, stimulate the economy, and bring about much-needed growth.", "zh": "假如葡萄牙退出欧元区，重新引入埃斯库多（葡萄牙货币单位 ） ， 那么随后而来的汇率贬值会使葡萄牙出口产品价格下跌，进口产品价格上涨，刺激葡萄牙经济发展，带来其急需的经济增长。", "index": 2697}
{"en": "But a euro exit would be a messy affair. The resulting turmoil could very well trump any short-term gains in competitiveness from devaluation.", "zh": "但是，脱离欧元将是一件很棘手的事，因为它所带来的金融风暴将胜过任何通过货币贬值来增强竞争力中获得的短期收益。", "index": 2698}
{"en": "There is a remarkably simple alternative that does not require southern Europe’s troubled economies to abandon the euro and devalue their exchange rates.", "zh": "有这样一种非常简单的解决方案，南欧经济困难国家不必放弃欧元，也不必贬低本国货币汇率。", "index": 2699}
{"en": "It involves increasing the value-added tax while cutting payroll taxes.", "zh": "这一方案包括提高增值税，同时削减工资税。", "index": 2700}
{"en": "Our recent research demonstrates that such a “fiscal devaluation” has very similar effects on the economy in terms of its impact on GDP, consumption, employment, and inflation.", "zh": "我们最近进行的研究表明，这样的“财政货币贬值 ” ， 无论在国内生产总值，消费还是就业和通胀方面，对经济产生的影响与贬低本国货币汇率产生的影响相当。", "index": 2701}
{"en": "A currency devaluation works by making imports more costly and exports cheaper. A VAT/payroll-tax swap would do exactly the same thing.", "zh": "货币贬值能行得通，因为这样会使进口产品更加昂贵，出口产品更加便宜，而提高增值税，削减工资税也能发挥这样的作用。", "index": 2702}
{"en": "An increase in VAT raises the price of imported goods, as foreign firms face a higher tax.", "zh": "提高增值税会提高进口货物的价格，外国企业面临更高的关税。", "index": 2703}
{"en": "To ensure that domestic firms do not have an incentive to raise prices, an increase in VAT needs to be accompanied by a cut in payroll taxes.", "zh": "为确保国内企业不会提高价格，在增加增值税的同时，必须削减工资税。", "index": 2704}
{"en": "Moreover, since exports are exempt from VAT, the price of domestic exports will fall.", "zh": "此外，由于出口产品免征增值税，国内出口产品价格也将下降。", "index": 2705}
{"en": "The desired competitiveness effects of exchange-rate devaluation can thus be had while staying in the euro.", "zh": "这样以来，即使不脱离欧元区，不进行汇率贬值，也能增强经济竞争力，收到同样的预期效果。", "index": 2706}
{"en": "This policy can also help on the fiscal front.", "zh": "这项政策在财政方面也会有所帮助。", "index": 2707}
{"en": "As is true of an exchange-rate devaluation, the positive impact on growth of an increase in competitiveness can strengthen the fiscal position by raising tax revenues.", "zh": "汇率贬值确实能够增强竞争力。 增强竞争力对经济增长产生积极影响，通过提高税收，可以改善财政状况。", "index": 2708}
{"en": "Moreover, an important advantage of fiscal devaluations is that they generate additional revenues in proportion to the country’s trade deficit.", "zh": "此外，财政货币贬值的一项重要优势体现在，其产生的额外收入与国家的贸易赤字比例相当。", "index": 2709}
{"en": "For countries that are suffering from weak competitiveness and, as a consequence, running trade deficits, this typically means more revenues, especially in the short run.", "zh": "对于正遭受因竞争力不强而因此产生贸易赤字的国家而言，此举通常意味着能获得更多的收入，在短期内尤为如此。", "index": 2710}
{"en": "Like exchange-rate devaluations, fiscal devaluations create winners and losers.", "zh": "财政货币贬值和汇率贬值一样，在这一过程中既会有赢家也会有输家。", "index": 2711}
{"en": "Both act as a wealth levy: inflation means that bondholders suffer a real loss in proportion to their wealth and the size of the devaluation.", "zh": "两者都起着财富杠杆的作用：通胀意味着债券持有人会遭受实际损失，这一损失与他们的财富多少及贬值的幅度相称。", "index": 2712}
{"en": "If taxes on capital are not adjusted, holders of domestic stocks suffer a comparable loss.", "zh": "如果不调整资本税，国内股票持有人也会蒙受类似的损失。", "index": 2713}
{"en": "By contrast, many transfers, such as unemployment benefits, health benefits, and public pensions, are indexed to inflation, and thus maintain their real value.", "zh": "相比而言，许多资金转移，如失业福利，卫生福利，公共养老金等，都与通货膨胀挂钩，从而维持了其实际价值。", "index": 2714}
{"en": "The same is true of minimum wages.", "zh": "最低工资也是如此。", "index": 2715}
{"en": "These distributive effects play an important role in the politics of exchange-rate devaluations, and most of these effects appear in fiscal devaluations as well.", "zh": "这些资金分配产生的影响在汇率贬值方面发挥了重要的政治作用，这些影响大部分也在财政货币贬值中得到体现。", "index": 2716}
{"en": "Fiscal devaluations already have some advocates.", "zh": "财政货币贬值的做法已经得到了一些人士的拥护。", "index": 2717}
{"en": "Indeed, French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government just announced one.", "zh": "事实上，法国总统尼古拉·萨尔科齐政府就刚刚宣布了一项财政货币贬值计划。", "index": 2718}
{"en": "And concerns that a fiscal devaluation will conflict with euro rules can be met by simply pointing out that Germany’s government carried one out in 2007, though by another name, when it raised VAT from 16% to 19% and cut employers’ contribution to social insurance, from 6.5% to 4.2%.", "zh": "若有些人担心财政货币贬值将会与欧元规则相互冲突，则可以援引德国举例即可。 德国政府2007年实施了一项类似的计划（没有公开说明 ） ， 将增值税从16％提高到19 ％ ， 将雇主对社会保险的贡献率从6.5％削减至4.2 ％ 。", "index": 2719}
{"en": "In short, there are simple fiscal alternatives to exchange-rate devaluation that can address southern Europe’s short-term competitiveness problems.", "zh": "总之，除了推行汇率贬值以外，还存在其他解决南欧短期竞争力问题的简单财政方案。", "index": 2720}
{"en": "To be sure, feasible fiscal devaluations would be limited in size.", "zh": "可以肯定的是，可行的财政货币贬值方案必须将规模控制在一定限度内。", "index": 2721}
{"en": "But, together with debt restructuring, accommodative monetary policy, liquidity support from the European Central Bank, and much-required structural reforms, they can help to put these troubled economies on a sound footing without a euro breakup or a major austerity-induced recession.", "zh": "但是，伴随着债务重组，宽松的货币政策，欧洲央行的资金流动性支持及非常必要的结构性改革，这些可行的财政货币贬值方案，可以在欧元区不解体，并且不会导致紧缩引起的严重经济衰退的前提下，帮助那些经济困难的国家踏上正轨。", "index": 2722}
{"en": "A Dissident in China", "zh": "一位中国的异议人士", "index": 2723}
{"en": "TOKYO – 2009 was a good year for China. The Chinese economy still roared ahead in the midst of a worldwide recession.", "zh": "东京 — — 对于中国而言， 2009 年可是一个好年头。", "index": 2724}
{"en": "American President Barack Obama visited China, more in the spirit of a supplicant to an imperial court than the leader of the world’s greatest superpower. Even the Copenhagen summit on climate change ended just the way China wanted: failure in its attempt to commit China, or any other industrial nation, to making significant cuts in carbon emissions, with the United States getting the blame.", "zh": "在全球一片衰退的景象之中，中国经济却独领风骚、大步前进；美国总统贝拉克·奥巴马在他的中国之行中，表现的更像是一位置身帝国宫廷内的有求之人，而非一名全球最强超级大国的元首；甚至连关于气候变化问题的哥本哈根峰会，都以令中国称心如意的方式落幕：它未能令中国或其他任何一个工业国承担起重大的减排义务，而此罪责却由美国承担。", "index": 2725}
{"en": "The Chinese government, under the Communist Party, has every reason to feel confident.", "zh": "共产党领导下的中国政府有充分的理由感到自信。", "index": 2726}
{"en": "So why did a gentle former literature professor named Liu Xiaobo have to be sentenced to 11 years in prison, just because he publicly advocated freedom of expression and an end to one-party rule?", "zh": "这样，为何一位儒雅的原文学教授（刘晓波）却仅仅因为公开倡导言论自由及一党统治的终结，而要被判处十一年徒刑呢？", "index": 2727}
{"en": "Liu was co-author in 2008 of a petition, Charter 08, signed by thousands of Chinese, calling for basic rights to be respected.", "zh": "刘晓波是 2008 年的请愿文件 — — 《 08 宪章》的共同作者，这份呼吁尊重基本权利的文件，业已征得数千中国人的签名。", "index": 2728}
{"en": "Liu is not a violent rebel. His opinions, in articles published on the Internet, are entirely peaceful.", "zh": "刘晓波并非是一名暴力叛乱分子，他在发表于互联网的文章中所表达的观点，完全不带戾气。", "index": 2729}
{"en": "Yet he was jailed for “inciting subversion of state power.”", "zh": "即便如此，他还是因“煽动颠覆国家政权罪”而被判入狱。", "index": 2730}
{"en": "The notion that Liu might be capable of subverting the immense power of the Communist Party of China is patently absurd.", "zh": "认为刘晓波或有能力颠覆中共巨大权力的观点，显然是一派胡言。", "index": 2731}
{"en": "And yet the authorities clearly believe that they had to make an example of him, to prevent others from expressing similar views.", "zh": "然而当局却明显相信：自己必须杀一儆百，以防他人发表类似观点。", "index": 2732}
{"en": "Why does a regime that appears to be so secure consider mere opinions, or even peaceful petitions, so dangerous?", "zh": "为何对于一个看似稳固的政权来说，那些纯粹的观点、或者甚至是和平的请愿活动，却被认为是如此危险呢？", "index": 2733}
{"en": "Perhaps because the regime does not feel as secure as it looks.", "zh": "这或许是因为该政权并不像它看上去那般坦然无惧。", "index": 2734}
{"en": "Without legitimacy, no government can rule with any sense of confidence. There are many ways to legitimize political arrangements.", "zh": "若失去了合法性，任何政府都无法自信地施行统治。", "index": 2735}
{"en": "Hereditary monarchy, often backed by divine authority, has worked in the past. And some modern autocrats, such as Robert Mugabe, have been bolstered by their credentials as national freedom fighters.", "zh": "为政治制度赋予合法性的方式多种多样：自由民主制只是近来的一种创新而已；通常由君权神授为依托的世袭君主制，曾在历史上大行其道；而某些现代的独裁者（如罗伯特·穆加贝 ） ， 则是以民族解放斗士这一资历作为其统治的依据。", "index": 2736}
{"en": "China has changed a great deal in the last century, but it has remained the same in one respect: it is still ruled by a religious concept of politics.", "zh": "中国在过去的一个世纪内发生了巨大的变化，但在某一个方面，它却依然如故：宗教式的政治观念仍在统御着这个国家。", "index": 2737}
{"en": "Legitimacy is not based on the give and take, the necessary compromises, and the wheeling and dealing that form the basis of an economic concept of politics such as that which underpins liberal democracy.", "zh": "这种观念的合法性并非基于互谅互让、讨价还价以及做出必要的妥协；而这些行为构成了经济式政治观念的基础，其中，自由民主制度的支柱便是一例。", "index": 2738}
{"en": "Instead, the foundation of religious politics is a shared belief, imposed from above, in ideological orthodoxy.", "zh": "相反，宗教式政治的基石是一种以意识形态正统性为体现的、由上而下强加于民的共有信念。", "index": 2739}
{"en": "In imperial China, this meant Confucian orthodoxy.", "zh": "在帝制中国，这便意味着儒家的正统观念。", "index": 2740}
{"en": "The ideal of the Confucian state is “harmony.”", "zh": "儒家邦国的理想状态即为“和谐 ” 。", "index": 2741}
{"en": "If all people conform to a particular set of beliefs, including moral codes of behavior, conflicts will disappear.", "zh": "如果所有人都能遵从一套包括行为道德准则在内的特定信念的话，冲突就将消失。", "index": 2742}
{"en": "The ruled, in this ideal system, will naturally obey their rulers, just as sons obey their fathers.", "zh": "在这种理想体系之中，被统治者正如子女遵从父亲一般、自然而然地听命于统治者。", "index": 2743}
{"en": "After the various revolutions in the early decades of the twentieth century, Confucianism was replaced by a Chinese version of Communism.", "zh": "在二十世纪前期数十年的种种革命之后，儒家思想被中国式的共产主义所取代。", "index": 2744}
{"en": "Marxism appealed to Chinese intellectuals, because it was bookish, introduced a modern moral orthodoxy, and was based, like Confucianism, on a promise of perfect harmony. Ultimately, in the Communist utopia, conflicts of interests would melt away.", "zh": "对于中国的知识分子而言，马克思主义颇具吸引力，这一方面是因为它带着书卷的气息，引入了一套现代道德正统观念；另一方面则是因为马克思主义与儒家学说一样，都建立在一种关于完美和谐的诺言基础之上：在共产主义乌托邦内，最终将再无利益的冲突。", "index": 2745}
{"en": "Chairman Mao’s rule combined elements of the Chinese imperial system with Communist totalitarianism.", "zh": "毛泽东主席的统治，便是对中国帝制体系与共产主义极权制度诸元素的结合。", "index": 2746}
{"en": "This orthodoxy, however, was also destined to fade away.", "zh": "然而，这种正统思想注定也将消亡。", "index": 2747}
{"en": "Few Chinese, even in the top ranks of the Communist Party, are convinced Marxists anymore.", "zh": "很少有中国人仍旧是马克思主义的忠实信徒，甚至在共产党高层内部，情况也是如此。", "index": 2748}
{"en": "This left an ideological vacuum, swiftly filled in the 1980’s by greed, cynicism, and corruption.", "zh": "这种状况留下了一个意识形态真空，它在上世纪八十年代被贪婪、腐化以及玩世不恭所快速占据。", "index": 2749}
{"en": "Out of this crisis came the demonstrations all over China, collectively known as “Tiananmen.”", "zh": "这场危机催生了遍及中国全境的示威活动，它们被笼而统之地冠以“天安门事件”之名。", "index": 2750}
{"en": "Liu Xiaobo was an active spokesman in 1989 for the student protests against official corruption and in favor of greater freedom.", "zh": "刘晓波在 1989 年，便身为学生针对官员腐化、并要求获得更大自由的抗议活动之积极代言人。", "index": 2751}
{"en": "Soon after the bloody crackdown on Tiananmen, a new orthodoxy replaced Chinese Marxism: Chinese nationalism.", "zh": "在天安门的血腥镇压行动后不久，一种新的正统思想取代了中国式马克思主义的地位，这便是中国的民族主义。", "index": 2752}
{"en": "Only one-party rule would guarantee the continuing rise of China and put an end to centuries of national humiliation.", "zh": "只有一党统治，方可确保中国能继续崛起，并为数百年的民族屈辱史画上句号；共产党代表着中国的大国宿命。", "index": 2753}
{"en": "The Communist Party represented China’s destiny as a great power. To doubt this was not just mistaken, but unpatriotic, even “anti-Chinese.”", "zh": "对���观点心存疑虑已不单是一种错误，还是一种不爱国、甚至“反华”的表现。", "index": 2754}
{"en": "From this perspective, Liu Xiaobo’s critical views were indeed subversive.", "zh": "以此看来，刘晓波的批判观点的确是颠覆性的。", "index": 2755}
{"en": "They cast doubt on the official orthodoxy, and thus on the legitimacy of the state.", "zh": "这些观点为官方正统思想打上了问号，也由此对国家政权的合法性提出了质疑。", "index": 2756}
{"en": "To wonder, as many have, why the Chinese regime refused to negotiate with the students in 1989 – or to find some accommodation with its critics today – is to misunderstand the nature of religious politics.", "zh": "许多人对于中国政府为何拒绝在 1989 年与学生进行谈判、或对如今的批判者做出一些迁就而感到惊讶，这恰恰是误解了宗教式政治的本质。", "index": 2757}
{"en": "Negotiation, compromise, and accommodation are the marks of economic politics, where every deal has its price. By contrast, those who rule according to a shared belief cannot afford to negotiate, for that would undermine the belief itself.", "zh": "谈判、妥协与迁就皆为经济式政治的特征， 这种政治模式可以就事论事； 与之形成鲜明对比的是，那些根据共有信念施行统治的人，是无力承担谈判之代价的，因为谈判行为将会对信念本身造成伤害。", "index": 2758}
{"en": "This is not to say that the economic concept of politics is utterly strange to the Chinese – or, for that matter, that the religious notion of politics is unknown in the democratic West.", "zh": "这并非意味着经济式政治观念对于中国人来说，是一种完全陌生的模式；就此而言，这也不是指奉行民主制度的西方就不知宗教式政治观念为何物。", "index": 2759}
{"en": "But the insistence on orthodoxy is still sufficiently strong in China to remain the default defense against political critics.", "zh": "然而在中国，人们对于正统观念的坚持，依旧强大到使其足可继续作为对政治批评者的默认防范方式之地步。", "index": 2760}
{"en": "These things can change.", "zh": "这些情况可以发生转变。", "index": 2761}
{"en": "Other Confucian societies, such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan, now have thriving liberal democracies, and there is no reason to believe that such a transition is impossible in China.", "zh": "诸如韩国、台湾以及日本等其他的儒家社会，如今都已拥有繁荣的自由民主制度，人们没有理由相信：中国不可能经历这种转型。", "index": 2762}
{"en": "But external pressure is unlikely to bring it about.", "zh": "但外部压力不太可能带来这种变革。", "index": 2763}
{"en": "Many non-Chinese, including me, have signed a letter of protest against the jailing of Liu Xiaobo.", "zh": "包括我在内的许多外国人士，都已在针对刘晓波被判入狱一事的抗议信上签字。", "index": 2764}
{"en": "One hopes that this will lend comfort to him, and give a moral boost to Chinese who share his views. But it is unlikely to impress those who believe in the current orthodoxy of Chinese nationalism.", "zh": "人们只是希望此举能聊表慰藉，并给予那些与刘晓波志同道合的中国人以道义上的鼓舞；但对于那些笃信当前中国民族主义正统思想的人士而言，此举不太可能令其受到震动。", "index": 2765}
{"en": "Until China is released from the grip of religious politics, Liu’s ideals are unlikely to take root.", "zh": "在中国从宗教式政治的控制下获得解放之前，刘晓波的理念不太可能生根。", "index": 2766}
{"en": "This does not bode well for China, or, indeed, for the rest of the world.", "zh": "对于中国（实际上也对世界其他国家）而言，这可不是个好兆头。", "index": 2767}
{"en": "A Drug War on Auto-Pilot", "zh": "不由分说的禁毒战争", "index": 2768}
{"en": "THE HAGUE – The war in Afghanistan, now approaching its tenth year, may seem to many to have no end in sight, but Latin America has endured an even longer fight, one that has recently become much more bloody: the “war” against drug trafficking.", "zh": "海牙 — — 阿富汗战争迄今为止已经打了十年，在很多人看来或许仍没有结束的迹象，但拉丁美洲却忍受了更为漫长的战争，而且近来血腥程度甚至愈演愈烈： 这就是打击贩毒的“战争 ” 。", "index": 2769}
{"en": "So rote – and so violent – has that war become that many people in Latin America now wonder which side is suffering the more pathological addiction.", "zh": "这场战争已经变得如此生硬 — — 如此暴力 — — 以致于拉美很多人现在感到惊讶，弄不清病理性成瘾更为严重的究竟是哪一方。", "index": 2770}
{"en": "The new strategy that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been promoting to staunch the upward trend of narco-trafficking-related murders – which leaked Mexican government reports put at more than 22,000 since late 2006 – is to build “stronger, more resilient communities.”", "zh": "建设“更强大，适应力更强的社会”是美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿宣传能够阻止与毒品贩运有关谋杀上升趋势的新战略 — — 泄露出来的墨西哥政府报告统计2006年以来与贩毒有关的谋杀已经超过 22,000起。", "index": 2771}
{"en": "Ciudad Juárez, a sprawling Mexican border town that is now the homicide capital of the world, would have to be high on the list.", "zh": "不断扩张的墨西哥边境小镇华雷斯市现在已经成为全世界的杀人之都，肯定应该高居名单的榜首位置。", "index": 2772}
{"en": "Four bridges and innumerable tunnels and drainage canals connect Ciudad Juárez and El Paso, Texas.", "zh": "华雷斯市和得克萨斯州的艾尔帕索县通过四座桥梁和难以数计的隧道和排水沟连接在一起。", "index": 2773}
{"en": "Rival cartels sparring for control of a plaza, the name given to any trafficking route, butcher each other and the security forces.", "zh": "具有竞争关系的卡特尔拼命为争夺广场的控制权互相残杀并屠杀安全部队，广场是人们对任何贩毒路线的称谓。", "index": 2774}
{"en": "There is apparently no shortage of young, unemployed men willing to join the carnage.", "zh": "显然愿意加入这场屠杀的无业年轻男性大有人在。", "index": 2775}
{"en": "Addressing the deep-seated social and economic problems of a city like Juárez, however, is a lot harder than flooding its streets with 8,000 soldiers carrying assault rifles.", "zh": "不过解决像华雷斯这样一座城市根深蒂固的社会和经济问题比派8，000名手持突击步枪的士兵占据这座小城的街道要困难得多。", "index": 2776}
{"en": "Mexican President Felipe Calderón has, in this respect, remained faithful to the script written in previous theaters in the drug war, whether in Bolivia, Colombia, or Peru, where governments have used military force and extradition to placate the US and punish those with the least voice and influence.", "zh": "在这方面，墨西哥总统费利佩·卡尔德龙继续忠实于玻利维亚、哥伦比亚或秘鲁等国禁毒战争此前写好的电影脚本，这些国家政府依靠武力和引渡来平息美国的怒气，惩罚那些最没有发言权和影响力的穷人。", "index": 2777}
{"en": "But the language used by the Obama administration to describe the violence and state corruption that snakes from the Andes to the US border is starting to capture new thinking on narcotics.", "zh": "但奥巴马政府形容从安第斯山脉流向美国边境的暴力和国家腐败时所用的语言正开始抓住毒品问题的全新思维。", "index": 2778}
{"en": "Three former Latin American presidents, Mexico’s second richest man, Ricardo Salinas, and the Supreme Court of Argentina, among others, have criticized the war on drugs as a manifest failure that has lowered street prices, fueled production, and undermined weak states.", "zh": "值得一提的是三位前拉美总统，墨西哥排名第二的富翁里卡多·萨利纳斯以及阿根廷最高法院已经批评禁毒战争是一场显而易见的失败，它拉低了房地产价格、推升毒品产量，并对弱国造成了破坏。", "index": 2779}
{"en": "More strikingly, both Bolivia and Ecuador are governed by presidents who suffered directly from the collateral insensitivities of the war on drugs.", "zh": "更令人惊奇的是，玻利维亚和厄瓜多尔两国总统都是禁毒战争所忽略问题的直接受害者。", "index": 2780}
{"en": "Bolivia’s Evo Morales rose to prominence as leader of the country’s coca growers during a brutal campaign to wipe out their crops, the so-called Dignity Plan.", "zh": "玻利维亚总统埃沃·莫拉莱斯在一场消灭古柯作物的残酷运动中崛起为这个国家古柯种植者的领袖，这场运动就是所谓的尊严计划。", "index": 2781}
{"en": "Ecuadoran President Rafael Correa’s father was jailed for smuggling drugs to the US when the future leader was five years old.", "zh": "而厄瓜多尔总统拉斐尔·科雷亚的父亲在这位未来的领袖只有五岁时因走私毒品而被捕入狱。", "index": 2782}
{"en": "These leaders’ profound ambivalence toward the goal of a world free of illegal drugs is shared by the European Union, where restrictions on narcotics consumption have slackened over the past decade.", "zh": "与这些领袖一样对无非法毒品世界目标抱有矛盾心理的还有欧盟，它过去几十年来已经放松了对毒品消费的限制。", "index": 2783}
{"en": "The past three US presidents, furthermore, have all admitted to consuming – to one extent or another – illegal psychoactive substances, while seven million Americans, according to the United Nations, are regular cocaine users.", "zh": "此外，之前的三任美国总统都已经承认或多或少吸食过非法的精神刺激药物，而据联合国统计，有七百万美国人都是常规的可卡因使用者。", "index": 2784}
{"en": "But the inertia of a bureaucratic drug-enforcement superstructure (worth approximately $40 billion each in the US and the EU), sustained by a deep-seated fear of the “threat” posed by drugs and cartels, appears to push policy repeatedly towards the familiar option of repressive auto-pilot.", "zh": "但禁毒执法上层建筑的惯性（在美国和欧盟价值均达到400亿美元）在对毒品和卡特尔所造成“威胁”根深蒂固的恐惧的推动下，似乎一而再、再而三地将政策推向不由分说镇压的一成不变的选择。", "index": 2785}
{"en": "For example, US support for Mexico’s campaign against the cartels looks set in stone, with Congress apparently ready to provide $300 million for another year of military and security upgrading.", "zh": "比如，美国对墨西哥打击卡特尔运动的支持似乎牢不可破，国会显然已经做好准备为又一年的军事和安全设施升级提供3亿美元的经费。", "index": 2786}
{"en": "In Colombia, seven new joint military installations are planned, and support for US private contractors who have cornered the market in crop fumigation presumably will not be interrupted.", "zh": "人们计划在哥伦比亚建设七座联合军事设施，并且对垄断作物熏蒸市场的美国私人承包商的支持很可能也不会动摇。", "index": 2787}
{"en": "Nevertheless, as the flaws in the four-decade-old edifice of counter-narcotics become more visible, it is increasingly difficult to regard the risks of drug use as being greater than the damage done by repression.", "zh": "尽管如此，随着历经四十年的禁毒大厦缺点逐渐暴露，认定使用毒品的风险大于镇压所造成的破坏已经越来越难。", "index": 2788}
{"en": "Prohibition hikes the mark-up on prices – an astounding 15,000% in the case of cocaine traveling to Europe from Andean processing facilities.", "zh": "禁毒措施促成了毒品价格上涨，从安第斯加工厂运到欧洲的可卡因令人震惊的上涨15,000 % 。", "index": 2789}
{"en": "While the war on drugs focuses on bringing down cartels and their kingpins, it perversely aids the health of their markets, which nestle within legitimate trade flows and respond to price incentives.", "zh": "在禁毒战争关注摧毁卡特尔及其主要人物的同时，却顽强地促进了在合法贸易流动的夹缝中生存并对价格激励作出反应的毒品市场的健康。", "index": 2790}
{"en": "Interviewed by the Mexican magazine Proceso this year, the second-in-command of the giant Sinaloa cartel, Ismael Zambada, made the point clearly: “The narco problem involves millions of people.", "zh": "在年内接受墨西哥杂志《Proceso》采访时，规模庞大的锡那罗亚卡特尔的二号人物伊斯梅尔•尚巴达明确指出 ： “ 毒品问题涉及成百上千万人口。", "index": 2791}
{"en": "How do you control it?", "zh": "这样的问题怎么控制？", "index": 2792}
{"en": "The capos can be jailed, killed, or extradited, but their replacements are already wandering around.”", "zh": "领头的人可以被监禁、杀死或者引渡，但顶替者已经在周围徘徊等候。 ”", "index": 2793}
{"en": "The emergence of Latin America’s powerful drug mafias cannot be traced to the radical evil of certain individuals.", "zh": "拉美强大贩毒集团的出现究其原因并非是由于某些个人的极端邪恶。", "index": 2794}
{"en": "These people emerged under conditions created in deeply inequitable societies by a misapplied, inconsistent, and bureaucratic war.", "zh": "这些人是在一场由滥用权力、反复无常和充满官僚气息战争造成的严重不公的社会条件下自然产生的。", "index": 2795}
{"en": "Indeed, the furies of the Zetas in Mexico originate in the counter-insurgency training provided in the 1990’s to a select group of special-forces soldiers, who later deserted.", "zh": "事实上，墨西哥的齐塔复仇女神最初接受过20世纪90年代向选定的特种部队士兵提供的反暴动训练，而后逃离了特种部队。", "index": 2796}
{"en": "The Zetas’ star recruits in recent years have come from the Guatemalan military’s special forces, whose infamous induction technique involved biting off the head of a live chicken.", "zh": "近年来齐塔人招募的明星新锐大多具有危地马拉军队的特种部队背景，这支部队一种臭名昭著的入门技术是咬掉一只活鸡的头颅。", "index": 2797}
{"en": "Meanwhile, in Jamaica and across the rural outposts of Central America, drug lords have become benefactors and heroes to the poor.", "zh": "与此同时，在牙买加以及中美洲的农村前沿，毒枭正在扮演着穷苦人的救世主兼英雄的角色。", "index": 2798}
{"en": "It is time for serious reconsideration of the status and regulation of illegal drugs, pointing to selective legalization, as well as reclassification of the market as a public-health, rather than a criminal, concern.", "zh": "认真重新考察局势和非法毒品管理状况的时候到了，可以考虑实行有选择的合法化，对这个市场重新进行公共健康而不是刑事方面的考量。", "index": 2799}
{"en": "For now, policymakers across the Americas are tiptoeing towards the obvious.", "zh": "现在，美洲各国的决策者正悄悄向显而易见的解决方案靠拢。", "index": 2800}
{"en": "A Global \"New Deal\"?", "zh": "全球“新政 ” ？", "index": 2801}
{"en": "ATHENS – The International Monetary Fund’s belated admission that it significantly underestimated the damage that austerity would do to European Union growth rates highlights the self-defeating character of “orthodox” recipes to address the causes of the debt crisis that followed the financial crash of 2008-2009.", "zh": "雅典—IMF终于承认它严重低估了紧缩给欧盟增长率带来的伤害，这表明纠正2008—2009年金融危机后发生的债务危机的根源的“正统”药方起到了弄巧成拙的效果。", "index": 2802}
{"en": "Conventional theory suggests that a single country (or group of countries) consolidating its finances can expect lower interest rates, a weaker currency, and an improved trade position.", "zh": "传统智慧认为，就个别国家（或一组国家）而言，整合其财政意味着降低利率、货币贬值和改善贸易处境。", "index": 2803}
{"en": "But, because this cannot happen for all major economies simultaneously – one country’s (or group of countries’) austerity implies less demand for other countries’ products – such policies eventually lead to beggar-thy-neighbor situations.", "zh": "但是，由于这无法同时在所有主要经济体发生 — — 一个国家（或一组国家）的紧缩意味着其他国家产品需求下降 — — 这些政策最终会导致以邻为壑局面。", "index": 2804}
{"en": "Indeed, it was this dynamic – against which John Maynard Keynes fought – that made the Great Depression of the 1930’s so grim.", "zh": "事实上，凯恩斯所反对的正是这一动态，正是它导致了20世纪30年代悲惨的大萧条。", "index": 2805}
{"en": "Today’s problems are compounded by a lack of sufficient private demand – particularly household consumption – in the advanced economies to compensate for demand losses stemming from austerity.", "zh": "当今问题的一个组成部分是发达国家私人需求（特别是家庭消费）不振，不足以补偿紧缩带来的需求损失。", "index": 2806}
{"en": "During the last two decades, consumption drove these countries’ economic growth, reaching historically high GDP shares.", "zh": "在过去20年中，消费推动着这些国家的经济增长，其占GDP比重达到了历史新高。", "index": 2807}
{"en": "Moreover, major advanced economies, such as the United States, Germany, and Japan, face longer-term fiscal problems in the form of aging populations or oversize welfare states, limiting their capacity to contribute to demand management.", "zh": "此外，美国、德国和日本等主要发达国家面临老龄化、福利国家规模太大等长期财政问题，制约着它们的需求管理能力。", "index": 2808}
{"en": "Recent moves to ease monetary policy have been a step in the right direction; but, so far, they have not proved to be a game changer.", "zh": "当前的货币宽松政策方向是对的，但到目前为止并没有起到扭转局势的作用。", "index": 2809}
{"en": "For domestic demand to act as an engine of growth, policies should shift resources from investment to consumption.", "zh": "由于内需成了增长引擎，因此政策应该将资源从投资引向消费。", "index": 2810}
{"en": "While the magnitudes involved are huge, they must be attained if an extended period of low growth, high unemployment, and declining living standards among the world’s poorest is to be avoided.", "zh": "尽管所涉规模巨大，但必须完成，否则就会导致低增长、高失业、全球最贫困人口生活之质量下降。", "index": 2811}
{"en": "International economic policy coordination should be significantly strengthened in order to deal effectively with changes on such a scale.", "zh": "应该着力强调国际经济政策协调，以便有效地应对如此规模的变局。", "index": 2812}
{"en": "Start with Europe.", "zh": "从欧洲开始。", "index": 2813}
{"en": "It is by now patently obvious that austerity and domestic reforms are not enough to pull the eurozone’s periphery out of deep recession.", "zh": "如今，毫无疑问紧缩和国内改革不足以将欧元区外围国拉出衰退。", "index": 2814}
{"en": "Growing awareness of the failure of current policies is causing social discontent, civil disorder, and political instability, with the recently concluded Italian elections and the growing popular resistance to Greek reform efforts serving as a bellwether.", "zh": "人们越来越意识到当前的政策是失败的，这正在造成社会不满、国内失序和政局动荡，最近结束的意大利选举和希腊改革措施所受到的越来越大的阻力就是明证。", "index": 2815}
{"en": "Returning the eurozone’s peripheral economies to the path of growth requires more than structural reforms and fiscal consolidation.", "zh": "要让欧元区外围国回归增长之路，光有结构性改革和财政整合是不够的。", "index": 2816}
{"en": "It also requires a substantial reform of the monetary union’s system of economic governance, aimed at restoring financial stability and lowering borrowing costs, together with a boost in external demand in order to compensate for the effects of austerity.", "zh": "欧元区经济治理制度也必须有彻底的改革，其目标应是重塑金融稳定、降低借贷利率，同时提振外部需求以补偿紧缩措施带来的后果。", "index": 2817}
{"en": "Reforming governance implies significant progress toward economic unification: centralizing European debt through Eurobonds, mobilizing sufficient rescue funds, allowing the European Central Bank to intervene in the primary bond markets, and establishing both a fiscal and a banking union.", "zh": "改革治理意味着向经济联盟迈出一大步：通过欧元债券将欧洲债务集中化；动员足够的救援资金；允许欧洲央行在债券一级市场实施干预；并建立财政和银行联盟。", "index": 2818}
{"en": "This is a tall order, in view of the reluctance of most EU member states to cede competences to European institutions.", "zh": "这似乎是个不可能的任务，因为大部分欧盟成员国都不愿把权力割让给欧洲机构。", "index": 2819}
{"en": "But Europe should move more decisively in this direction.", "zh": "但欧洲应该坚决地向这一方向迈进。", "index": 2820}
{"en": "Otherwise, speculation on member states’ national debt will persist, keeping borrowing costs at levels that are inconsistent with the conditions required to sustain economic recovery.", "zh": "否则的话，关于成员国国民债务问题的猜疑就不会停止，这会导致借贷成本维持在与维持经济复苏不相容的水平。", "index": 2821}
{"en": "Concerning external demand, intra-European help in the form of reflationary policies in stronger economies is unlikely to prove sufficient, owing primarily to the fiscal and political conditions prevailing in Germany.", "zh": "在外部需求问题上，坚挺国实施再通胀政策的欧洲内部援助不可能充分，其主要原因在于德国国内的财政和政治条件。", "index": 2822}
{"en": "Implementing a Marshall Plan-type initiative by mobilizing EU budget resources and additional lending by the European Investment Bank to finance investments in weaker countries could be an alternative, but it lacks political support.", "zh": "通过动员欧盟预算资源并增加欧洲投资银行向疲软国金融投资项目的贷款等形式实施的欧洲内部版马歇尔计划可以成为替代方案，但缺少政治支持。", "index": 2823}
{"en": "On a global scale, neither the US nor Japan is in a position to provide significant external stimulus.", "zh": "在全球范围内，美国和日本都没有提供重大外部刺激的条件。", "index": 2824}
{"en": "Only the emerging and developing economies of Asia could effectively contribute to lifting global demand through a coordinated effort aimed at boosting domestic consumption, which, in turn, would stimulate additional investment.", "zh": "只有亚洲的新兴和发展中国家能通过旨在提振国内消费 — — 这反过来能够刺激更多的投资 — — 的政策协调有效地提振全球需求。", "index": 2825}
{"en": "Recent IMF experience suggests that, through appropriate coordination, private funds could be mobilized for big private-public partnership projects linking demand expansion with infrastructure investment.", "zh": "IMF的最新经验表明，通过适当的协调，私人资金可以动员起��参与大型公司合作项目，将需求扩张和基础设施投资结合起来。", "index": 2826}
{"en": "In other words, a global “New Deal” – combining policies designed to achieve an orderly realignment of consumption and investment worldwide – seems to be required.", "zh": "换句话说，我们需要全球“新政 ” — —将旨在有序重列全球消费和投资的政策结合起来。", "index": 2827}
{"en": "The advanced economies should promote productivity-enhancing structural reforms with renewed vigor.", "zh": "发达国家应该打起精神推进增进生产率的结构性改革。", "index": 2828}
{"en": "The eurozone should solidify its currency union.", "zh": "欧元区应该巩固其货币联盟。", "index": 2829}
{"en": "And the emerging and developing economies should support domestic sources of growth.", "zh": "而新兴和发展中国家应该支持内部增长源。", "index": 2830}
{"en": "For such a deal to become possible, certain preconditions must be met.", "zh": "为了让这一新政成为可能，必须满足一定的先决条件。", "index": 2831}
{"en": "First, international policy coordination by the G-20 must be tightened by creating a permanent secretariat to make policy proposals and recommendations concerning macroeconomic and financial developments.", "zh": "首先，G20必须加紧国际政策协调，这可以通过成立永久性秘书处负责考虑关于宏观经济和金融发展的政策方案和建议。", "index": 2832}
{"en": "The secretariat should actively cooperate with the IMF to benefit from its analysis, notably regarding exchange rates.", "zh": "这一秘书处应该积极地与IMF合作，利用后者的分析结果，特别是汇率问题上的分析结果。", "index": 2833}
{"en": "Second, global financial reform must proceed at a faster pace.", "zh": "其次，全球金融改革必须加快节奏。", "index": 2834}
{"en": "The financial sector requires tougher regulation, strengthened supervision, and internationally consistent resolution mechanisms to address the problems posed by very large, global institutions that are considered too big (or too complex) to fail.", "zh": "金融部门需要加强监管、强化监督，还需要国际一致的解决机制以纠正太大（或太复杂）而不能倒的大型全球性机构带来的问题。", "index": 2835}
{"en": "Such reform is essential if the international financial system is to mediate the sizeable resource transfers that will underpin the required changes in the structure of global demand.", "zh": "这类改革至关重要的，如果想要国际金融体系成为大规模资源转移媒介的话（而这又是全球需求结构必要变化的基础 ） 。", "index": 2836}
{"en": "Finally, a new trade pact – possibly, but not necessarily, within the Doha Round – is needed to ensure the major trading powers’ access to foreign markets.", "zh": "最后，还需要新的贸易契约 — — 可能（但不一定）在多哈回合中形成 — — 以确保主要贸易大国能够进入外国市场。", "index": 2837}
{"en": "This is critically important for inspiring confidence in Asian countries, which might be persuaded to favor domestic, as opposed to external, sources of demand.", "zh": "这对于激发亚洲国家信心具有关键重要性，说服它们开发内部而不是外部需求源。", "index": 2838}
{"en": "Moreover, trade liberalization will also increase consumer confidence worldwide.", "zh": "此外，贸易自由化也能增加全世界消费者的信心。", "index": 2839}
{"en": "The time is right for a new global settlement that targets growth, addresses crisis conditions in certain parts of the world, and rebalances the global economy to set it back on a path of strong and steady growth.", "zh": "新的全球协定正当时。 这一协定的目标应该是提振增长、消除世界某些地区的危机环境以及实现全球经济的再平衡以使其回到强劲、稳健的增长道路上来。", "index": 2840}
{"en": "The Other Financial Crisis", "zh": "另一种金融危机", "index": 2841}
{"en": "NEWPORT BEACH – Two variants of financial crisis continue to wreak havoc on Western economies, fueling joblessness and poverty: the one that we read about regularly in newspapers, involving governments around the world; and a less visible one at the level of small and medium-size businesses and households.", "zh": "发自纽波特滩 — — 金融危机的两个变体正继续蹂躏着西方经济，令失业和贫穷状况进一步加剧：一个是我们经常在报纸上读到的涉及各国政府的金融危机；另一个不那么起眼的则是中小型企业和家庭层面上的危机。", "index": 2842}
{"en": "Until both are addressed properly, the West will remain burdened by sluggish growth, persistently high unemployment, and excessive income and wealth inequality.", "zh": "在这两种危机得到恰当应对之前，西方世界将继续背负着增长滞缓、失业率长期居高及收入与财富差距过大的负担。", "index": 2843}
{"en": "The sovereign-debt crisis is well known.", "zh": "主权债务危机是众所周知的。", "index": 2844}
{"en": "In order to avert a likely depression, governments around the world engaged in fiscal and monetary stimulus in the midst of the global financial crisis.", "zh": "为了避免出现经济萧条，各国政府在全球金融危机期间都忙于实施财政及货币刺激政策。", "index": 2845}
{"en": "They succeeded in offsetting nasty economic dislocations caused by private-sector deleveraging, but at the cost of encumbering their fiscal balances and their central banks’ balance sheets.", "zh": "此举成功抵消了因私营部门去杠杆化所导致的严重经济紊乱，但却是以破坏自身财政收支平衡以及扰乱央行资产负债表为代价的。", "index": 2846}
{"en": "While sovereign credit quality has deteriorated virtually across the board, and will most probably continue to do so, the implications for individual countries vary.", "zh": "虽然主权信贷的质量几乎全面恶化 — — 并很可能继续恶化下去 — — 但它对各国的影响却有所不同。", "index": 2847}
{"en": "Some Western countries – such as Greece – had fragile government accounts from the outset and tipped quickly into persistent crisis mode.", "zh": "某些西方国家 — — 比如希腊 — — 起初其政府账目就非常糟糕，所以很快就陷入了长期持续性的危机模式。", "index": 2848}
{"en": "There they remain, still failing to provide citizens with a light at the end of what already has been a long tunnel.", "zh": "这些国家将一直深陷危机，即便很长一段时期之后都依然无法为其公民带来一丝希望。", "index": 2849}
{"en": "Other countries had been fiscally responsible, but were overwhelmed by the liabilities that they had assumed from others (for example, Ireland’s irresponsible banks sank their budget).", "zh": "其他国家过去在财政上一直尽职尽责，却无力应对那些从别处承担的债务（例如那些不可靠的爱尔兰银行就毁了本国的预算 ） 。", "index": 2850}
{"en": "Still others, including the United States, faced no immediate threat but failed to make progress on longer-term issues. A few, like Germany, had built deep economic and financial resilience through years of fiscal discipline and structural reforms.", "zh": "另外一些国家 — — 包括美国 — — 没有受到直接的威胁，但无法在某些长期事务上取得进展。 而有几个像德国这样的国家则通过多年的财政纪律和体制改革拥有了深厚的经济和金融复原能力。", "index": 2851}
{"en": "It is not surprising that policy approaches have also varied.", "zh": "各国的应对政策各不相同，这也并不奇怪。", "index": 2852}
{"en": "Indeed, they have shared only one, albeit crucial (and disappointing) feature: the inability to rely on rapid growth as the “safest” way to deleverage an over-indebted economy.", "zh": "但事实上，这些政策之间只拥有一个至关重要（也令人失望）的共同点：那就是无法依靠经济快速增长这个“最安全”的方法来为其过度负债的经济去杠杆化。", "index": 2853}
{"en": "Greece essentially defaulted on some obligations.", "zh": "希腊实际上已经在某些债务上出现了违约。", "index": 2854}
{"en": "Ireland opted for austerity and reforms, as has the United Kingdom.", "zh": "爱尔兰和英国一样选择了紧缩政策和改革。", "index": 2855}
{"en": "The US is gradually transferring resources from creditors to debtors through financial repression.", "zh": "美国正逐步通过金融抑制手段把资源从债权人转移到债务人手上。", "index": 2856}
{"en": "And Germany is slowly acquiescing to a prudent relative expansion in domestic demand.", "zh": "而德国正逐渐适应在国内需求方面的稳健相对扩张。", "index": 2857}
{"en": "So much for the sovereign-debt crisis, which, given its national, regional, and global impact, has been particularly well covered.", "zh": "关于主权债务危机我想说的就这么多，因为考虑��其对国家、区域及全球的影响，对其的讨论已经足够丰富了。", "index": 2858}
{"en": "After all, sovereigns are called that because they have the power to impose taxes, regulations, and, at the extreme, confiscation.", "zh": "毕竟，它之所以被称之为主权，就是因为它们拥有征税、监管，甚至极端点说，没收的权力。", "index": 2859}
{"en": "But the other credit crisis is equally consequential, and receives much less attention, even as it erodes societies’ integrity, productive capabilities, and ability to maintain living standards (particularly for the least fortunate).", "zh": "另外一种信贷危机也同样重要，但其受到的关注却少得多，即使它损坏了社会的凝聚力、生产力以及人们维持自身生活水平的能力（尤其是对底层人群来说 ） 。", "index": 2860}
{"en": "I know of very few Western countries where small and medium-size companies, as well as middle-income households and those of more limited means, have not experienced a significant decline in their access to credit – not just new financing, but also the ability to roll over old credit lines and loans.", "zh": "据我所知，绝大部分西方国家的中小企业、中等收入以及收入拮据的家庭都经历过信贷获取渠道显著下降 — — 不仅针对新的融资，还包括更新过往信贷额度和借款的能力。", "index": 2861}
{"en": "The immediate causes are well known.", "zh": "这种信贷危机产生的直接原因大家都知道。", "index": 2862}
{"en": "They range from subdued bank lending to unusually high risk aversion, and from discredited credit vehicles to the withdrawal of some institutions from credit intermediation altogether.", "zh": "其范围涵盖从银行抑制贷款到异常的高风险规避行为、从信贷工具信誉崩溃再到某些机构完全撤出信用中介机构的举措。", "index": 2863}
{"en": "Such credit constraints are one reason why unemployment rates continue to rise in so many countries – often from already alarming levels, such as 25% in Greece and Spain (where youth unemployment is above 50%) – and why unemployment remains unusually high in countries like the US (albeit it at a much lower level).", "zh": "这种信贷约束是许多国家失业率持续上升的一个原因 — — 通常这些国家的失业率原本已经处于令人担忧的水平了，例如希腊和西班牙25%的失业率（这两个国家的青年失业率已经超过了50 % ） — — 同时也是像美国这样的国家失业率居高不下的原因（虽然相对而言美国的失业率并不高 ） 。", "index": 2864}
{"en": "This is not just a matter of lost capabilities and rising poverty; persistently high unemployment also leads to social unrest, erosion of trust in political leaders and institutions, and the mounting risk of a lost generation.", "zh": "这不仅仅是生产力流失和贫困加剧的问题；长期的高失业率还会导致社会动荡、对本国政治领导人的不信任以及产生失落一代的风险。", "index": 2865}
{"en": "Indeed, unemployment data in many advanced countries are dominated by long-term joblessness (usually defined as six months or more).", "zh": "确实，许多发达国家的失业数据主要由长期失业构成（通常定义为六个月或以上 ） 。", "index": 2866}
{"en": "Skill erosion becomes a problem for those with prior work experience, while unsuccessful first-time entrants into the labor force are not just unemployed, but risk becoming unemployable.", "zh": "技能的逐渐丧失对那些原本有工作经验的人来说是个问题，而首次就业不成功则不仅意味着失业这么简单，还隐含着不会被雇佣的风险。", "index": 2867}
{"en": "Governments are doing too little to address the private credit debacle.", "zh": "政府们在处理私人信贷危机上做得太少了。", "index": 2868}
{"en": "Arguably, they must first sort out the sovereign side of the crisis; but it is not clear that most officials even have a comprehensive plan.", "zh": "虽然理论上它们必先解决危机中的主权债务方面；然而目前尚不清楚大部分官员是否制订了一个全面计划。", "index": 2869}
{"en": "Policy asymmetry is greatest for the countries most acutely affected by the sovereign-debt crisis.", "zh": "那些受到主权债务危机影响最剧烈的国家的政策非对称性最为明显。", "index": 2870}
{"en": "There, the private sector has essentially been left to fend for itself; and most households and companies are struggling, thus fueling continued economic implosion.", "zh": "在这些国家，政府基本上任由私营部门自生自灭；大部分家庭和企业都处在挣扎之中，因此加剧了长期的经济崩溃。", "index": 2871}
{"en": "Other countries appear to have adopted a “Field of Dreams” – also known as “build it and they will come” – approach to private credit markets, In the US, for example, artificially low interest rates for home mortgages, resulting from the Federal Reserve’s policy activism, are supposed to kick-start prudent financing.", "zh": "其他国家则仿佛采取了一种“寻梦之地 ” — —也被称之为“平台建好了，人就来了 ” — —的方法来处理私人信贷市场，例如，在美国，由于美联储的政策措施，人为降低了对住房抵押贷款的利率，以期启动审慎的融资。", "index": 2872}
{"en": "The European Central Bank is taking a similarly indirect approach.", "zh": "欧洲央行也正在采取这么一个间接手段。", "index": 2873}
{"en": "In both places, other policymaking entities, with much better tools at their disposal, appear either unwilling or unable to play their part.", "zh": "但在这两个地方，掌握有更有力工具的其他政策制定实体似乎既不愿意也无力承担自己的角色。", "index": 2874}
{"en": "As such, action by central banks will repeatedly fail to gain sufficient traction.", "zh": "在这种情况下，央行的行动将一直无法产生足够的牵引力。", "index": 2875}
{"en": "In fact, only the UK is visibly opting for a more coordinated and direct way to counter the persistent shortfalls stemming from the private part of the credit crisis.", "zh": "事实上，只有英国明确选择了更协调也更直接的方式来抵消由私人信贷危机引起的长期短缺。", "index": 2876}
{"en": "There, the “Funding for Lending Scheme,” jointly designed by the Bank of England and the Treasury, seeks “to boost the incentive for banks and building societies to lend to UK households and non-financial companies,” while holding them accountable for proper behavior.", "zh": "由英国格兰银行和财政部共同设计的“贷款资助方案”旨在“提高银行和建房互助协会向英国家庭和非金融企业借贷的动力 ” ， 同时也要求前者为自身的行为负责。", "index": 2877}
{"en": "The UK example is important; but, given the scope and scale of the challenges, the proposal is a relatively modest one.", "zh": "英国的例子很重要；但是考虑到整个挑战所涉及的范围和规模 ，该提案还是相对保守的。", "index": 2878}
{"en": "The program may stimulate some productive credit intermediation, but it will not make a significant dent in what will remain one of the major obstacles to robust economic recovery.", "zh": "这一计划也许能刺激一些有益的信用中介行为，但它依然无法对那些继续阻碍强劲经济复苏的因素产生重大影响。", "index": 2879}
{"en": "Proper access to credit for productive segments is an integral part of a well-functioning economy.", "zh": "生产部门能够拥有适当的信贷获取渠道对一个运转良好的经济体来说至关重要。", "index": 2880}
{"en": "Without it, growth falters, job creation is insufficient, and widening income and wealth inequality undermines the social fabric.", "zh": "否则经济增长就将止步不前，也无法充分创造就业，不断扩大的财富与收入差距将腐蚀整个社会结构。", "index": 2881}
{"en": "That is why any comprehensive approach to restoring the advanced countries’ economic and financial vibrancy must target the proper revival of private credit flows.", "zh": "这就是为什么任何恢复发达国家经济和金融活力的综合性手段都必须着眼于适当复苏私人信贷流的原因。", "index": 2882}
{"en": "Toxic Politics Versus Better Economics", "zh": "有害的政治学和更好的经济学", "index": 2883}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The relationship between politics and economics is changing.", "zh": "纽约—政治学和经济学之间的关系在变化。", "index": 2884}
{"en": "Advanced-country politicians are locked in bizarre, often toxic, conflicts, instead of acting on a growing economic consensus about how to escape a protracted period of low and unequal growth.", "zh": "发达国家政客陷于古怪并且常常有害的冲突之中，而没有在关于如何摆脱长期不平等低增长时期的问题上按照日益一致的经济共识行事。", "index": 2885}
{"en": "This trend must be reversed, before it structurally cripples the advanced world and sweeps up the emerging economies, too.", "zh": "这一趋势必须扭转，否则它将破坏发达经济的结构，并让新兴经济体也陷入困境。", "index": 2886}
{"en": "Obviously, political infighting is nothing new.", "zh": "显然，政治内斗不是什么新鲜事。", "index": 2887}
{"en": "But, until recently, the expectation was that if professional economists achieved a technocratic consensus on a given policy approach, political leaders would listen.", "zh": "但是，直到最近，人们一直认为，如果职业经济学家能就给定的政策方针形成技术官僚一致，政治领导人是能够听进去的。", "index": 2888}
{"en": "Even when more radical political parties attempted to push a different agenda, powerful forces – whether moral suasion from G7 governments, private capital markets, or the conditionality attached to International Monetary Fund and World Bank lending – would almost always ensure that the consensus approach eventually won the day.", "zh": "即使有更多激进政党试图推行不同的日程，但强大的力量 — — 不管是来自G7政府的到的劝告、私人资本市场，还是国际货币基金组织（IMF）和世界银行贷款的附加条件 — — 几乎总能确保共识方针最终能够胜出。", "index": 2889}
{"en": "In the 1990s and 2000s, for example, the so-called Washington Consensus dominated policymaking in much of the world, with everyone from the United States to a multitude of emerging economies pursuing trade liberalization, privatization, greater use of price mechanisms, financial-sector deregulation, and fiscal and monetary reforms with a heavy supply-side emphasis.", "zh": "比如，从20世纪90年代到21世纪初，所谓的华盛顿共识主导着世界大部的政策决定，从美国到诸多新兴经济体，所有人都在追求贸易自由化、私有化、扩大价格机制用途、金融业去监管，以及着重强调供给侧的财政和货币改革。", "index": 2890}
{"en": "The embrace of the Washington Consensus by multilateral institutions amplified its transmission, helping to drive forward the broader process of economic and financial globalization.", "zh": "多边机构采用华盛顿共识放大的这一传导机制，推动了更广大的经济和金融全球化过程。", "index": 2891}
{"en": "Incoming governments – particularly those led by non-traditional movements, which had risen to power on the back of domestic unease and frustration with mainstream parties – sometimes disagreed with the appropriateness and relevance of the Washington Consensus.", "zh": "即将上任的新政府 — — 特别是那些由非传统运动的政府，它们之所以能够掌权，依靠的是国内的焦虑情绪和对主流政党的失望 — — 有时华盛顿共识的适当性和重要性有不同意见。", "index": 2892}
{"en": "But, as Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva demonstrated with his famous policy pivot in 2002, that consensus tended largely to prevail. And it continued to hold sway as recently as almost two years ago, when Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras executed an equally notable U-turn.", "zh": "但是，巴西总统卢拉以其著名的2002年政策重点证明，华盛顿共识最后往往还是能够胜出，并且一直主导全局直到两年前希腊总理齐普拉斯采取了同样令人瞩目的一百八十度大转弯。", "index": 2893}
{"en": "But after years of unusually sluggish and strikingly non-inclusive growth, the consensus is breaking down.", "zh": "但在经历了多年反常的停滞和令人震惊的不包容增长后，华盛顿共识正在解体。", "index": 2894}
{"en": "Advanced-country citizens are frustrated with an “establishment” – including economic “experts,” mainstream political leaders, and dominant multinational companies – which they increasingly blame for their economic travails.", "zh": "发达国家公民对“建制 ” — —包括经济“专家 ” 、 主流政治领导人、主要跨国公司 — — 感到失望，越来越多的人指责它们是经济艰难的罪魁祸首。", "index": 2895}
{"en": "Anti-establishment movements and figures have been quick to seize on this frustration, using inflammatory and even combative rhetoric to win support.", "zh": "反建制运动和人物很快就抓住了这一不满，利用煽动性乃至战斗性言辞赢得支持。", "index": 2896}
{"en": "They do not even have to win elections to disrupt the transmission mechanism between economics and politics.", "zh": "他们甚至不需要赢得选举就能干扰经济学和政治学之间的传递机制。", "index": 2897}
{"en": "The United Kingdom proved that in June, with its Brexit vote – a decision that directly defied the broad economic consensus that remaining within the European Union was in Britain’s best interest.", "zh": "6月份，英国以退欧投票证明了这一点 — — 这一决定直接否认了留在欧盟符合英国的最佳利益这一经济共识。", "index": 2898}
{"en": "The referendum happened for one reason: in 2013, then-Prime Minister David Cameron feared that he would be unable to secure sufficiently his Conservative Party base in the general election that year.", "zh": "英国公投的发生原因是，2013年，时任首相卡梅伦担心他在当年的大选中无法确保其保守党基本盘。", "index": 2899}
{"en": "So he pandered to Euroskeptic voters with the promise of a referendum.", "zh": "因此他用承诺举行公投诱惑疑欧派选民。", "index": 2900}
{"en": "The source of Cameron’s fear?", "zh": "卡梅伦为什么要担心？", "index": 2901}
{"en": "The political disruption caused by the UK Independence Party – an anti-establishment party that ended up winning only one seat in Parliament and subsequently found itself leaderless and in turmoil.", "zh": "因为英国独立党（UK Independent Party）所造成的政治干扰。 反建制的英国独立党最后只在议会赢得了一个席位，随后便陷入群龙无首的乱局。", "index": 2902}
{"en": "Now, it seems, the floodgates have opened.", "zh": "如今，防洪门似乎已经洞开。", "index": 2903}
{"en": "At the recent Conservative Party annual conference, speeches by Prime Minister Theresa May and members of her cabinet revealed an intention to pursue a “hard Brexit,” thereby dismantling trading arrangements that have served the economy well.", "zh": "在最近的保守党年度大会上，首相梅及其内阁成员的讲话表明他们准备追求“硬退欧 ” ， 取缔给英国经济带来巨大好处的贸易安排。", "index": 2904}
{"en": "They also included attacks on “international elites” and criticism of Bank of England policies that were instrumental in stabilizing the British economy in the referendum’s immediate aftermath – thus giving May’s new government time to formulate a coherent Brexit strategy.", "zh": "他们还抨击“国际精英 ” ， 批评英格兰银行的政策。 在公投刚刚结束的那段时间，英格兰银行的政策起到了稳定英国经济的中流砥柱的作用，从而给梅的新政府赢得了制定一致的退欧战略的时间。", "index": 2905}
{"en": "Several other advanced economies are experiencing analogous political developments.", "zh": "其他一些发达经济体也正在经历类似的政治发展趋势。", "index": 2906}
{"en": "In Germany, a surprisingly strong showing by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland in recent state elections already appears to be affecting the government’s behavior.", "zh": "在德国，极右翼的德国另类党（Alternative für Deutschland）在最近的州选举中表现出人意料的强势，它已经开始影响德国政府的行为。", "index": 2907}
{"en": "In the US, even if Donald Trump’s presidential campaign fails to put a Republican back in the White House (as appears increasingly likely, given that, in the latest twist of this highly unusual campaign, many Republican leaders have now renounced their party’s nominee), his candidacy will likely leave a lasting impact on American politics.", "zh": "在美国，即使唐纳德·特朗普的竞选不能让共和党重新问鼎白宫（这一可能性日益增加，因为这出相当反常的总统选战最近又曝出新转折，许多共和党领导人宣布不再支持本党提名人 ） ， 他成为候选人这一事实也可能给美国政治带来持续影响。", "index": 2908}
{"en": "If not managed well, Italy’s constitutional referendum in December – a risky bid by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to consolidate support – could backfire, just like Cameron’s referendum did, causing political disruption and undermining effective action to address the country’s economic challenges.", "zh": "如果管理不当，12月的意大利宪政公投 — — 总理伦齐为巩固其支持而兵行险招 — — 将适得其反，一如卡梅伦的公投方案，导致政治干扰，阻碍解决意大利经济挑战的有效行动。", "index": 2909}
{"en": "Make no mistake: solid and credible policy options are available.", "zh": "不要弄错了，可靠可信的政策选项仍在可及范围内。", "index": 2910}
{"en": "After years of mediocre economic performance, there is widespread agreement that a shift away from excessive dependence on unconventional monetary policy is needed.", "zh": "在经历了多年的平庸经济表现后，一个广泛的一致是必须摆脱对非常规货币政策的过度依赖。", "index": 2911}
{"en": "As IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde put it, “central banks cannot be the only game in town.”", "zh": "IMF总裁拉加德指出 ， “ 中央银行不可以成为唯一的博弈 ” 。", "index": 2912}
{"en": "And yet they have been.", "zh": "但它们正是。", "index": 2913}
{"en": "As I argue in The Only Game in Town, published in January, countries need a more comprehensive policy approach, involving pro-growth structural reforms, more balanced demand management (including higher fiscal spending on infrastructure), and better cross-border policy coordination and architecture.", "zh": "我在1月出版的《唯一的博弈 》 （ The Only Game in Town）中指出，各国需要更加全面的政策方针，包括促增长的结构性改革、更平衡的需求管理（包括增加基础设施方面的财政支出）和更好的跨国政策协作和组织。", "index": 2914}
{"en": "There is also a need, highlighted by the protracted Greek crisis, to address pockets of severe over-indebtedness, which can have crushing impact extending well beyond the directly affected.", "zh": "此外还需要解决严重的过度负债问题 — — 没完没了的希腊危机突出了这一点 — — 该问题的破坏性影响远远不局限于直接受害者。", "index": 2915}
{"en": "The emergence of a new consensus on these points is good news.", "zh": "在这些问题上形成新共识是好消息。", "index": 2916}
{"en": "But, in the current political environment, translating that consensus into action is likely to happen too slowly, at best.", "zh": "但是，在当前政治环境下，将这一共识转化为行动可能过于缓慢甚至无从实现。", "index": 2917}
{"en": "The risk is that, as bad politics crowds out good economics, popular anger and frustration will rise, making politics even more toxic.", "zh": "风险在于，随着坏政治学挤出好经济学，群众愤怒和不满将愈演愈烈，让政治学变得更加有害。", "index": 2918}
{"en": "One hopes that enlightened political leadership takes the reins in time to make the needed mid-course corrections voluntarily, before unambiguous signs of economic and financial crisis force policymakers to scramble to minimize the damage.", "zh": "我们希望开明的政治领导层及时掌控全局，自愿采取中途纠错，以免明确的经济和金融危机信号迫使决策者不得不将重点放在影响最小化上。", "index": 2919}
{"en": "Another Lesson from Japan", "zh": "日本的另一个教训", "index": 2920}
{"en": "NEW HAVEN – Yet another in a long string of negative inflation surprises is at hand.", "zh": "发自纽黑文 — — 最近这段时间出人意料的通胀坏消息真是一个接着一个。", "index": 2921}
{"en": "In the United States, the so-called core CPI (consumer price index) – which excludes food and energy – has headed down just when it was supposed to be going up.", "zh": "在美国，所谓的核心消费价格指数（core CPI ） — —不包括食品和能源 — — 在一片上行预期中调头向下。", "index": 2922}
{"en": "Over the three months ending in May, the core CPI was basically unchanged, holding, at just 1.7% above its year-earlier level.", "zh": "截至五月份的三个月中，核心消费物价指数基本保持不变，维持在较去年同期高出1.7个百分点的水平。", "index": 2923}
{"en": "For a US economy that is widely presumed to be nearing the hallowed ground of full employment, this comes as a rude awakening – particularly for the Federal Reserve, which has pulled out all the stops to get inflation back to its 2% target.", "zh": "对于各界广泛认为已经近乎实现充分就业神迹的美国经济来说，这简直是当头一盆冷水 — — 而最尴尬的莫过于已尽一切努力要使通胀水平回归2％目标值的美联储了。", "index": 2924}
{"en": "Halfway around the world, a similar story continues to play out in Japan.", "zh": "而在世界的另一侧，类似的故事也在日本继续上演。", "index": 2925}
{"en": "But, for the deflation-prone Japanese economy, it’s a much tougher story.", "zh": "但是对于极易出现通缩的日本经济来说，故事的内容更让人揪心。", "index": 2926}
{"en": "Through April, Japan’s core CPI was basically flat relative to its year-earlier level, with a similar outcome evident in May for the Tokyo metropolitan area.", "zh": "截至今年4月份，日本的核心消费物价指数较去年同期基本持平，而东京都市圈的经济表现显示5月也将如此。", "index": 2927}
{"en": "For the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which committed an unprecedented arsenal of unconventional policy weapons to arrest a 19-year stretch of 16.5% deflation lasting from 1994 to 2013, this is more than just a rude awakening. It is an embarrassment bordering on defeat.", "zh": "对于为遏制持续19年（1994~2013）累计达19.5％的通缩趋势而动用了史无前例的非常规政策武器库的日本银行来说，这不仅仅是一个盆冷水，简直就是一场近乎失败的窘境。", "index": 2928}
{"en": "This story is global in scope.", "zh": "这个故事适用于全球范围。", "index": 2929}
{"en": "Yes, there are a few notable outliers – namely, the United Kingdom, where currency pressures and one-off holiday distortions are temporarily boosting core inflation to 2.4%, and Malaysia, where the removal of fuel subsidies has boosted headline inflation, yet left the core stable at around 2.5%.", "zh": "当然也存在一些值得留意的异常例子 — — 比如英国，货币压力和一次性假期扭曲暂时将核心通胀率提高至2.4 ％ ， 还有马来西亚，燃料补贴的取消推动了总体通胀，但核心通胀率稳定在2.5％左右。", "index": 2930}
{"en": "But they are exceptions in an otherwise inflationless world.", "zh": "但它们都是这个无通胀世界中的例外。", "index": 2931}
{"en": "The International Monetary Fund’s latest forecasts bear this out.", "zh": "国际货币基金组织的最新预测表明了这一点。", "index": 2932}
{"en": "Notwithstanding a modest firming of global economic growth, inflation in the advanced economies is expected to average slightly less than 2% in 2017-2018.", "zh": "尽管全球经济将实现温和增长，但发达经济体在2017~18年的通胀水平预计将略低于2 ％ 。", "index": 2933}
{"en": "The first chapter of this tale was written many years ago, in Japan.", "zh": "这个故事的第一章是多年前在日本写就的。", "index": 2934}
{"en": "From asset bubbles and excess leverage to currency suppression and productivity impairment, Japan’s experience – with lost decades now stretching to a quarter-century – is testament to all that can go wrong in large and wealthy economies.", "zh": "从资产泡沫和杠杆过剩到汇率压制和生产力下降，日本的经验 — — 所谓“失去的十年”现在已经拉长到了二十五年 — — 展现了一个大型富裕的经济体可能会犯下的所有错误。", "index": 2935}
{"en": "But no lesson is more profound than that of a series of policy blunders made by the BoJ.", "zh": "但没什么教训能比日本央行犯下的一系列政策失误更为深刻。", "index": 2936}
{"en": "Not only did reckless monetary accommodation set the stage for Japan’s demise; the country’s central bank compounded the problem by taking policy rates to the zero bound (and even lower), embracing quantitative easing, and manipulating long-term interest rates in the hopes of reviving the economy.", "zh": "不仅使用鲁莽的货币宽松政策为日本的衰亡奠定了基础；该国央行还将政策利率归零（甚至更低 ） ， 实施量化宽松政策和操纵长期利率以期复兴经济，却令问题变得更为复杂。", "index": 2937}
{"en": "This has created an unhealthy dependency from which there is no easy exit.", "zh": "这创造了一种不健康却又极难摆脱的依赖状态。", "index": 2938}
{"en": "Though Japan’s experience since the early 1990s provides many lessons, the rest of the world has failed miserably at heeding them.", "zh": "虽然日本自1990年代初以来的经验提供了许多教训，但世界其他地方对此却令人沮丧地充耳不闻。", "index": 2939}
{"en": "Volumes have been written, countless symposiums have been held, and famous promises have been made by the likes of former US Fed chairman Ben Bernanke never to repeat Japan’s mistakes.", "zh": "研究论文写了无数篇，研讨会举办了无数次，还有诸如美国前美联储主席本·伯南克（Ben Bernanke）等高人都承诺永不会重蹈日本覆辙。", "index": 2940}
{"en": "Yet time and again, other major central banks – especially the Fed and the European Central Bank – have been quick to follow, with equally dire consequences.", "zh": "不过一次又一次地其他主要中央银行 — — 尤其是美联储和欧洲央行 — — 总是会紧接着掉进坑里，并产生同样可怕的后果。", "index": 2941}
{"en": "The inflation surprise of 2017 offers three key insights.", "zh": "2017年的通胀意外事件提供了三个关键的见解。", "index": 2942}
{"en": "First, the relationship between inflation and economic slack – the so-called Phillips curve – has broken down.", "zh": "首先，通货膨胀与经济萧条程度之间的关系 — — 即所谓的菲利普斯曲线（Phillips curve ） — —已经瓦解了。", "index": 2943}
{"en": "Courtesy of what the University of Geneva’s Richard Baldwin calls the “second unbundling” of globalization, the world is awash in the excess supply of increasingly fragmented global supply chains.", "zh": "拜日内瓦大学教授理查德·鲍德温（Richard Baldwin）所谓的全球化“第二次分割”所赐，世界上因此充斥着供应过剩且日益分散化的全球供应链。", "index": 2944}
{"en": "Outsourcing via these supply chains dramatically expands the elasticity of the global supply curve, fundamentally altering the concept of slack in labor and product markets, as well as the pressure such slack might put on inflation.", "zh": "而借助这些供应链的外包大大扩大了全球供应曲线的弹性，并从根本上改变了劳动力和产品市场萧条的概念，以及这类萧条状态对通胀的压力。", "index": 2945}
{"en": "Second, today’s globalization is inherently asymmetric.", "zh": "其次，当今的全球化在本质上是不对称的。", "index": 2946}
{"en": "For a variety of reasons – hangovers from balance-sheet recessions in Japan and the US, fear-driven precautionary saving in China, and anemic consumption in productivity-constrained Europe – the demand side of most major economies remains severely impaired.", "zh": "由于各种原因 — — 日本和美国资产负债表的持续衰退，恐惧驱动下的中国国内预防性储蓄，以及欧洲生产力受限导致的消费疲软 — — 大多数主要经济体的需求侧依然受损严重。", "index": 2947}
{"en": "Juxtaposed against a backdrop of ever-expanding supply, the resulting imbalance is inherently deflationary.", "zh": "再结合供应不断扩大的背景，因此导致的不平衡状态在本质上是通缩式的。", "index": 2948}
{"en": "Third, central banks are all but powerless to cope with the moving target of what can be called a non-stationary liquidity trap.", "zh": "第三，中央银行在应对所谓的非平稳流动性陷阱的变动目标方面都是无能为力的。", "index": 2949}
{"en": "First observed by John Maynard Keynes during the Great Depression of the 1930s, the liquidity trap describes a situation in which policy interest rates, having reached the zero bound, are unable to stimulate chronically deficient aggregate demand.", "zh": "正如约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）在1930年代大萧条时首先观察到的那样，流动性陷阱描述了一个政策利率已达零点，却依旧无法刺激长期缺乏的总需求的状况。", "index": 2950}
{"en": "Sound familiar?", "zh": "这听起来是不是有点耳熟？", "index": 2951}
{"en": "The novel twist today is the ever-expanding global supply curve.", "zh": "而如今使用的新花招则是不断扩张的全球供应曲线。", "index": 2952}
{"en": "That makes today’s central banks even more impotent than they were in the 1930s.", "zh": "这使得今天的中行比1930年代更加束手无策。", "index": 2953}
{"en": "This is not an incurable disease.", "zh": "这可不是不治之症。", "index": 2954}
{"en": "In a world of hyper-globalization – barring a protectionist relapse led by the America Firsters – treatment needs to be focused on the demand side of the equation.", "zh": "在一个超全球化的世界 — — 除了由美国优先主义者领导的保护主义逆流之外 — — 应对方案应当集中在等式的需求一侧。", "index": 2955}
{"en": "The most important lesson from the 1930s, as well as from the modern-day Japanese experience, is that monetary policy provides no answer for a chronic deficiency of aggregate demand.", "zh": "而1930年代以及从现代日本的经验带来的最重要教训，就是货币政策对总需求的长期缺乏状况无计可施。", "index": 2956}
{"en": "Addressing it is a task primarily for fiscal authorities. The idea that central banks should consider making a new promise to raise their inflation targets is hardly credible.", "zh": "解决这个问题主要得靠财政部门，中行应该考虑再度许诺提高其通胀目标的想法是不可靠的。", "index": 2957}
{"en": "In the meantime, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is right (finally) to push the Fed to normalize policy, putting an end to a failed experiment that has long outlived its usefulness.", "zh": "与此同时，美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen ） （ 最后终于）作出了正确的决定，推动美联储的政策正常化，终结了一个早该因一无是处而刹车的错误实验。", "index": 2958}
{"en": "The danger all along has been that open-ended unconventional monetary easing would fail to achieve traction in the real economy, and would inject excess liquidity into US and global financial markets that could lead to asset bubbles, reckless risk taking, and the next crisis.", "zh": "一直以来的危险在于：不是何时才是尽头的非常规货币宽松政策将无法对实体经济构成牵引力，并将过多的流动性注入了美国和全球金融市场，从而导致资产泡沫，肆意金融冒险和下一次危机。", "index": 2959}
{"en": "Moreover, because unconventional easing was a strategy designed for an emergency that no longer exists, it leaves the Fed with no ammunition to fight the inevitable next downturn and crisis.", "zh": "此外，由于非常规宽松政策是为了一个不再存在的紧急状态而制定的战略，因此也使得美联储没有弹药来应对不可避免的下一轮衰退和危机。", "index": 2960}
{"en": "We ignore history at great peril.", "zh": "我们对历史的忽视是存在极大危险的。", "index": 2961}
{"en": "The latest disappointment for inflation-targeting central banks is really not a surprise after all. The same is true of the related drop in long-term interest rates.", "zh": "以通胀为目标的各大央行最近的铩羽而归根本不是一个意外，相关的长期利率下跌也是如此。", "index": 2962}
{"en": "There is much to be gained by studying carefully the lessons of Japan.", "zh": "仔细学习日本的教训，必定获益良多。", "index": 2963}
{"en": "A Rest Stop for Europe", "zh": "欧洲：退一步海阔天空", "index": 2964}
{"en": "PRINCETON – Last week, in a highly anticipated speech, German President Joachim Gauck cautioned against the blind pursuit of an “ever-closer” European Union, acknowledging that the growing inequality among member states is generating “a sense of unease, even unmistakable anger,” and increasing the risk of national humiliation.", "zh": "普林斯顿—上周，在一次备受期待的演讲中，德国总理高克对盲目追求“前所未有地紧密”的欧盟表达了担忧，他承认成员国之间日渐增加的不平等性正在产生“不安的感觉，甚至错误的愤怒 ， ” 这增加了国家受辱的风险。", "index": 2965}
{"en": "He pointed out that, in addition to the economic crisis, there is “a crisis of confidence in Europe as a political project.”", "zh": "他指出，除了经济危机，还有“一场对作为政治工程的欧洲的信心的危机 ” 。", "index": 2966}
{"en": "While Gauck made clear that he remains decidedly pro-Europe, he highlighted the need for closer reflection about Europe’s future – and especially that of the eurozone.", "zh": "尽管高克断然表示他仍是坚决的欧洲支持者，但他也强调了深刻思考欧洲未来的需要，特别是欧元区的未来。", "index": 2967}
{"en": "Standing on the verge of greater integration, Europeans are hesitant, “unsure whether we should really stride out on the onward journey.”", "zh": "站在进一步一体化的边上，欧洲人犹豫了 ， “ 不确定我们是否应该向前跨出新的步伐 ” 。", "index": 2968}
{"en": "Addressing this hesitation, he declared, will require a thoughtful, nuanced understanding of what “more Europe” actually means.", "zh": "他说，要打消这一犹豫，深入细致地思考“更欧洲”的真正含义。", "index": 2969}
{"en": "Gauck may not have gone far enough: At this point, an ever-closer union may be a political mirage.", "zh": "或许高克走的还不够远：目前前所未有地紧密的联盟可能是一场政治婚姻。", "index": 2970}
{"en": "Any meaningful progress toward stabilizing the eurozone would require a significant – potentially open-ended – financial commitment, and the EU is not politically ready to cross that threshold.", "zh": "任何有让欧元区更稳定的有意义的进步都需要重大 — — 从根本上说是开放 — — 的财政承诺，而欧盟还没有做好跨越之一门槛的政治准备。", "index": 2971}
{"en": "Repeatedly pretending to move forward, then pulling back at the critical point, exacerbates political uncertainty and economic vulnerability.", "zh": "一再地假装前进，然后又在临界点退缩，这增加了政治不确定性和经济脆弱性。", "index": 2972}
{"en": "Rather than indecisively pursuing more unity, this may be the moment to restore effective sovereignty to national authorities in eurozone countries.", "zh": "现在或许并不是犹犹豫豫追求更统一的时机，而是重塑欧元区国家当局有效主权的时机。", "index": 2973}
{"en": "Such a move would alleviate anxiety in the short term, thereby giving Europeans the opportunity to regroup in preparation for future steps toward a more integrated Europe and a more resilient euro.", "zh": "这样做能够在短期缓和焦虑，从而使欧洲得到重组机会，为未来迈向更一体化的欧洲和更坚挺的欧元做好准备。", "index": 2974}
{"en": "To this end, eurozone leaders must take three key steps.", "zh": "在这方面，欧元区领导人必须实施三个基本措施。", "index": 2975}
{"en": "The dysfunctional system of European fiscal governance should be dismantled; fiscal responsibility should be returned to member states; and, to minimize the risk of excessive future lending, private lenders should be required to bear the losses implied by unsustainable sovereign debt.", "zh": "功能不全的欧洲财政治理制度应该取消；财政责任应该交还给成员国；同时，为了让未来过度借贷最小化，应该要求私人债权人承担不可持续的主权债务的损失。", "index": 2976}
{"en": "The case against European fiscal governance is straightforward.", "zh": "欧洲财政治理的问题是显而易见的。", "index": 2977}
{"en": "Before the crisis, the single-minded emphasis on reducing national budget deficits to less than 3% of GDP led to extensive abuse.", "zh": "危机前一根筋地强调将预算赤字限制在GDP的3%之内导致了这一方针的滥用。", "index": 2978}
{"en": "Either the target was openly flouted, as it was in leading economies like Germany and France, or the data were manipulated to obscure problems (a common practice throughout the eurozone, not just in Greece).", "zh": "德国和法国等领先经济体公开奚落这一目标，而有的国家则操纵数字掩盖问题（这是欧元区普遍的现象，不光是希腊 ） 。", "index": 2979}
{"en": "And the belief in economic growth as a fiscal panacea led to unrealistically optimistic GDP forecasts.", "zh": "而把经济增长当作财政万灵丹的思想导致了不切实际的乐观GDP预期。", "index": 2980}
{"en": "When the crisis struck, the 3% deficit target became the focal point for unrelenting austerity – a form of what anthropologist Clifford Geertz described as “involution,” which occurs when a process intensifies rather than changes in response to external or internal pressure.", "zh": "危机爆发后，3%赤字目标成了无情的紧缩政策的焦点 — — 人类学家格尔茨（Clifford Geertz）将这种形式称为“内卷化 ” ， 当一个过程因外部或内部压力而加剧而不是变化时就发生了内卷化。", "index": 2981}
{"en": "In other words, EU leaders began to complicate fiscal governance, ultimately creating an inefficient, inescapable labyrinth of regulation and bureaucracy.", "zh": "换句话说，欧盟领导人开始强化财政治理，最终形成了不可避免的低效监管和官僚主义难题。", "index": 2982}
{"en": "As fiscal metrics become increasingly intricate, monitoring efforts will become ever easier to undermine.", "zh": "随着财政指标变得越来越复杂，监控财政行为越来越容易糊弄。", "index": 2983}
{"en": "The case for returning fiscal responsibility to national authorities is also strong – and not only because centralized fiscal authority has proved to be so inefficient.", "zh": "把财政责任交还给国家当局的问题也很大 — — 这不仅是因为集中财政当局已被证明极其低效。", "index": 2984}
{"en": "With citizens of distressed countries bearing the fiscal burden of the crisis, the enduring presumption that they will not act responsibly is patronizing, at best.", "zh": "受困国人民承担了危机的财政负担，如此仍认为它们不负责任的说法不可不谓傲慢。", "index": 2985}
{"en": "And the current strategy of exchanging goodies for good behavior encourages game-playing and dilutes responsibility.", "zh": "当前用甜头换良政的策略鼓励博弈而不利于责任。", "index": 2986}
{"en": "While the risk that governments will succumb to fiscal temptation remains, citizens’ current suffering is likely to deter future excesses.", "zh": "尽管政府受财政诱惑的风险仍然存在，但当下人民所受的苦难有可能会遏制未来的过度。", "index": 2987}
{"en": "National fiscal sovereignty would facilitate the final crucial step: building a more mature relationship with private lenders.", "zh": "国家财政主权能促进最后的关键措施：建立与私人债权人的更成熟的关系。", "index": 2988}
{"en": "The eurozone was founded on the “no bailout” principle: if member states could not repay their debts, lenders would bear the losses.", "zh": "欧元区是建立在“无援助”原则上的：如果成员国无法偿还债务，债权人必须承受损失。", "index": 2989}
{"en": "But lenders chose – correctly, as it turned out – to disregard that threat.", "zh": "但债权人选择无视这一威胁 — — 事实表明他们是正确的。", "index": 2990}
{"en": "Instead of enforcing the no-bailout principle and establishing a precedent, debtor countries used official loans to repay private creditors.", "zh": "债务国并没有强推无援助原则为后来者建立榜样，而是用官方贷款偿付私人债权人。", "index": 2991}
{"en": "As a result, these countries have condemned themselves to continued austerity, low growth, and high debt, while diminishing any future incentive for private lenders to impose fiscal discipline on sovereign borrowers.", "zh": "结果，这些国家把自己推向了持续紧缩、低增长和高债务，同时又切断了所有让私人债权人对主权债务人施加财政纪律的未来激励。", "index": 2992}
{"en": "Only by shifting the burden of responsibility back onto private lenders can debtor countries escape this quagmire.", "zh": "除非将这一负担抛回给私人债权人，否则债务国就无法摆脱债务泥淖。", "index": 2993}
{"en": "In the United States, each state is responsible for its fiscal management, without being forced to comply with a single, overarching template.", "zh": "在美国，各州对其财政管理负责，不需遵守单一的总模式。", "index": 2994}
{"en": "The states are not regulated by the federal government; they are disciplined by the knowledge that no one will repay their debts for them.", "zh": "各州不受联邦政府监管；它们受没人会为它们的债务买单这一认识的约束。", "index": 2995}
{"en": "And the system seems to work: entering the crisis, US states had significantly lower deficit and debt ratios than the eurozone’s vulnerable member states.", "zh": "这一制度运转良好：与欧元区的脆弱成员国相比，进入危机后，美国各州大幅降低了赤字和债务率。", "index": 2996}
{"en": "So far, European integration has largely been a process of “falling forward,” with each stumble serving as a lesson from which a stronger union emerges.", "zh": "目前，欧洲一体化大体上是一个“掉向前 ” （ falling forward）的过程，每一次跌倒都会成为形成更坚固的联盟的教训。", "index": 2997}
{"en": "But, while this uncertain approach may suffice as a basis for declarations of good intentions, it does not inspire the confidence required for countries to make the profound financial commitment that is now needed.", "zh": "但是，这一不确定方法或许足以成为宣称善意的基础，但并不能激发各国做出当下所急需的深刻财政承诺所需要的信心。", "index": 2998}
{"en": "Europeans should have the chance to regain their footing.", "zh": "欧洲人应该获得站稳脚跟的机会。", "index": 2999}
{"en": "Transferring fiscal responsibility back to national authorities would not only mean the end of counterproductive efforts to manage fiscal affairs centrally; it would also diminish the sense of frustration and lack of control that is fueling Euro-skepticism.", "zh": "将财政责任交还给国家当局不仅意味着倒行逆施的集中管理财政事务的做法的终结，还能减轻沮丧感和无从掌握全局感，后两者正是欧元悲观主义的温床。", "index": 3000}
{"en": "In short, taking a step back would provide an opportunity to reset, to reflect, and to plot the best course toward a more stable, more integrated Europe.", "zh": "简言之，退后一步将是重设、反思和策划迈向更稳定、更一体化欧洲的最佳方案的机会。", "index": 3001}
{"en": "For a fiscal union to function – however unlikely that outcome may be – a solid foundation is crucial.", "zh": "对于一个能够运转的财政联盟来说 — — 不管这一可能性多么渺茫 — — 稳固的基础是至关重要的。", "index": 3002}
{"en": "As Gauck explained, Europeans “are pausing to… equip [themselves] both intellectually and emotionally for the next step, which will require [them] to enter uncharted territory.”", "zh": "正如高克所解释的，欧洲人“正在停下来 … … 从知识和情绪两方面为下一步武装（自己 ） ， 下一步要求（他们）踏入未知领域。 ”", "index": 3003}
{"en": "Giving Europeans the time and space to choose more Europe would reinforce the core values upon which integration has rested for more than six decades.", "zh": "给欧洲人时间和空间去选择更欧洲有助于强化六十多年来作为欧洲一体化基石的核心价值。", "index": 3004}
{"en": "Continuing to stumble forward, however, would inevitably lead to a debilitating, if not fatal, fall.", "zh": "但是，继续蹒跚向前不可避免地会导致孱弱甚至衰亡。", "index": 3005}
{"en": "A European Cure for Balkan Depression", "zh": "巴尔干衰退的欧洲式疗法", "index": 3006}
{"en": "VIENNA – European politics is mostly shaped by events and anniversaries.", "zh": "发自维也纳－欧洲政治的绝大部分内容都是由某些重大事件和周年纪念构成的。", "index": 3007}
{"en": "But while events are often unforeseeable, anniversaries are not.", "zh": "而虽然重大事件往往有其不可预测性，但周年纪念却还是有迹可循的。", "index": 3008}
{"en": "Five years from now, Europe will be reflecting on the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War 1, which led to a loss of life almost without parallel and set in motion a chain of events that led to the creation of Europe as we now know it.", "zh": "就在5年之后，欧洲将迎来第一次世界大战爆发100周年的纪念活动，那场战争不但造成了其它事件所无法比拟的流血牺牲，更通过推动一系列事件，最终催生了今天我们眼中的欧洲。", "index": 3009}
{"en": "World leaders may have already reserved some days in August 2014 to mark the occasion.", "zh": "而世界各国的元首们说不定也早就预留了2014年8月的某些日子来操办纪念仪式。", "index": 3010}
{"en": "It is easy to predict that Sarajevo will be the place where they will meet to look back on Europe’s savage twentieth century.", "zh": "不难想象，萨拉热窝将成为他们齐聚一堂，共同回顾残酷血腥的20世纪欧洲史的地方。", "index": 3011}
{"en": "But how will Sarajevo look in five years?", "zh": "但不知５年后的萨拉热窝又将是何种风貌？", "index": 3012}
{"en": "Will it still be the capital of a country whose citizens view the future bleakly and whose politicians have totally lost touch with the electorate?", "zh": "它是否仍会是那个国民对未来彻底绝望，政治家与选民彻底绝缘的国家的首都？", "index": 3013}
{"en": "Or is there a hope that European leaders will use the anniversary to announce the successful integration of the remaining Balkan countries into the European Union?", "zh": "或者是否存在这样的可能性，那就是欧洲各国的领导人将借此周年纪念之机，宣布巴尔干半岛上的其余国家已经被成功整合进了欧盟？", "index": 3014}
{"en": "A Balkan Monitor survey recently conducted by Gallup Europe gives suggests the state of public opinion in Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo 20 years on from the fall of the Berlin Wall and a decade after the end of the Kosovo war.", "zh": "但就在最近，由盖洛普欧洲完成的一份名为《巴尔干观察》的调查给出了自柏林墙倒塌20年以及科索沃战争爆发10年以来，塞尔维亚，黑山共和国，马其顿，阿尔巴尼亚，克罗地亚，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那以及科索沃各地的舆论状况。", "index": 3015}
{"en": "The findings seem to indicate that the next five years will be a make-or-break period for the region’s future development.", "zh": "而调查结果似乎显示，今后5年将是一个关键时期，决定该地区未来发展的成败。", "index": 3016}
{"en": "While the overwhelming majority of citizens are convinced that further armed conflict in the region is unlikely, the public’s mood – with the exception of Kosovars and Albanians – is pessimistic.", "zh": "报告显示，尽管绝大多数市民相信在本地区内爆发进一步的武装冲突不太可能，但公众的情绪 — — 除科索沃和阿尔巴尼亚以外 — — 却都甚为悲观。", "index": 3017}
{"en": "The future promises peace without development.", "zh": "未来唯一能带给他们的只有和平，而发展却遥遥无期。", "index": 3018}
{"en": "Trust in political elites and in national and European institutions has been steadily declining.", "zh": "人们对政治精英，国家机关及欧盟机构的信任度也都在不断下降。", "index": 3019}
{"en": "The majority of citizens have experienced a decline in living standards in the last year, and there remains a perception that people have more opportunities outside their own countries.", "zh": "就在去年，绝大部分市民都遭遇了生活水平的下降，人们依然认为到了国外才有更多的机会。", "index": 3020}
{"en": "Pessimism about employment is alarmingly high among young people, while corruption and government mismanagement are regarded as being widespread.", "zh": "年轻人中对就业感到悲观的比率高得惊人，而政府腐败和管理不当也被认为是广泛存在的现象。", "index": 3021}
{"en": "All those who have made it their job to praise the stability in the region should look at these figures.", "zh": "因此这些数据值得那些视称颂该地区的稳定为己任的人去好好看看。", "index": 3022}
{"en": "Indeed, it is striking that the majority of citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina believe that their leaders are not interested in their country joining the EU.", "zh": "事实上令人感到震惊的是，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的大部分市民都认为他们的领导人对加入欧盟不感兴趣。", "index": 3023}
{"en": "An absolute majority of citizens in each of the surveyed countries are convinced that their country is heading in the wrong direction.", "zh": "而各被调查国中的绝大部分市民都认为他们的国家已经误入歧途。", "index": 3024}
{"en": "Less than one in 10 Croats (whose country could be joining the EU in the near future) believes that their country is heading in the right direction.", "zh": "只有不到1/10的克罗地亚人（该国将在不久后加入欧盟）认为自己的国家走上了正轨。", "index": 3025}
{"en": "There are now two options for the region: one is a “shock integration” program that takes all of the Western Balkan states into the EU; the other is a journey into the unknown. The hope that these countries can muddle through on their own is a dangerous illusion.", "zh": "事到如今，该地区面临两个选择：一是选择“休克式整合”计划，即把巴尔干半岛西部的所有国家不管好坏一股脑全部纳入欧盟；另一个选择则是走着瞧，但期望这些国家能够靠自身实力涉险过关显然都是些极端危险的幻想。", "index": 3026}
{"en": "Stability alone can no longer be the EU’s only objective in the region.", "zh": "因此欧盟在本地区的目标可不应仅限于“维稳”两字。", "index": 3027}
{"en": "The EU’s continuing presence as a colonial power in places like Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo could cause even more problems in the future, especially if benefits are not forthcoming.", "zh": "而欧盟如果继续以殖民强权式的面目不断在波黑及科索沃等地进行活动的话，那么就只能给未来造成更多的问题，尤其是当许诺的好处无法马上兑现之时。", "index": 3028}
{"en": "In particular, a delay in Serbia’s integration into the EU could bring Tito-inspired fantasies to the heart of the country’s foreign and security policy.", "zh": "特别对于塞尔维亚来说，如果迟迟不能加入欧盟，那么从前那种铁托式的不结盟主义思想就将重新占据该国外交和安全政策的核心。", "index": 3029}
{"en": "Thus, demoralization of Balkan society creates a dynamic of its own when the best and the brightest see their future outside of their own countries and where “stability” is just another name for political and economic stagnation.", "zh": "由此可见，当最优秀和最聪明的人都认为自己的未来在异国他乡之时，当“稳定”只是政治和经济停滞的代名词时，巴尔干社会的混乱就将催生一种自身的内在动力。", "index": 3030}
{"en": "If European leaders do plan to meet in 2014 in Sarajevo, they should act now.", "zh": "因此如果欧洲的领导人真的计划在2014年在萨拉热窝召开会议，那么他们现在就得行动起来。", "index": 3031}
{"en": "The ratification of the Lisbon Treaty allows for an element of visionary realism in European politics, as there are no longer any institutional obstacles to the future enlargement of the EU.", "zh": "其实《里斯本条约》的通过已经为欧洲政治的组成元素增添了兼具长远眼光的现实主义理念，而欧盟未来的扩张至此已不再存在任何制度上的障碍。", "index": 3032}
{"en": "Today, unlike a year ago, we know how many states are in the Balkans, and the Balkan Monitor results show that all of them want to join the Union.", "zh": "而今天与一年前不同的是，我们已经能弄清楚在巴尔干半岛���究竟有多少个国家，况且《巴尔干观察》的结果也显示这些国家都想加入欧盟。", "index": 3033}
{"en": "What the EU has learned from the results of the last parliamentary elections in Bulgaria is that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the leverage of Brussels over new member states increases rather than diminishes after they join.", "zh": "此外欧盟应从最近一次保加利亚议会选举中学到的东西则是，与传统思维相反，在新成员加入之后，布鲁塞尔对这些国家的影响力其实是有增无减。", "index": 3034}
{"en": "The EU’s decision to liberalize its visa regime for Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia – and the fact that George Papandreou, the major architect of the EU’s Balkan integration strategy, is back in power in Greece – is another source of optimism.", "zh": "欧盟放宽对塞尔维亚，黑山共和国和马其顿的签证限制的决定 — — 以及欧盟巴尔干整合战略的主要构建者乔治·帕潘德里奥在希腊重新掌权的事实 — — 都是令人感到乐观的理由。", "index": 3035}
{"en": "But it is now or never for the Balkans.", "zh": "而对于巴尔干人来说，要么现在加入，要么就永远不加入。", "index": 3036}
{"en": "Visa liberalization can be a strategic step in the direction of “shock integration,” but if it is not followed by bold political action from the EU, it could merely become a re-packaging of the status quo.", "zh": "放宽签证可以作为向“休克式整合”迈进的一个战略步骤，但如果欧盟没能紧接着给出清晰的政治行动，那这一切就仅仅是换汤不换药而已。", "index": 3037}
{"en": "In short, the moment has arrived for shaping events instead of simply marking anniversaries.", "zh": "一句话，一战100周年的时刻有的不仅是纪念，更是时机，一个决定重大事件的时机。", "index": 3038}
{"en": "Closing Europe’s Strategy Gap", "zh": "填补欧洲的战略空白", "index": 3039}
{"en": "MADRID – The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has been a hot topic of analysis for almost a year.", "zh": "马德里—持续发酵的乌克兰危机已经成为近一年来的一个热点分析话题。", "index": 3040}
{"en": "But one question has largely escaped thorough examination: what Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine indicates about the European Union’s foreign policy.", "zh": "但有一个问题几乎没人研究：俄罗斯吞并克里米亚和入侵东乌克兰对欧洲外交政策意味着什么。", "index": 3041}
{"en": "During the early stages of the crisis, Germany, which had bet heavily on Russia’s modernization, was averse to taking any consequential action.", "zh": "在危机的早期阶段，对俄罗斯现代化下了重注的德国反对采取任何可能带来后果的行动。", "index": 3042}
{"en": "But, as the crisis deepened, German Chancellor Angela Merkel worked to persuade her European counterparts to implement a broad and biting sanctions regime.", "zh": "但是，随着危机的深化，德国总理默克尔设法说服了欧洲同侪，实施了广泛而严厉的制裁措施。", "index": 3043}
{"en": "This certainly was a step in the right direction, but it did nothing to address the foreign-policy failings that helped spark the Ukrainian crisis and continue to undermine Europe’s response – namely, the EU’s misguided Neighborhood Policy (ENP) and its muddled approach to energy.", "zh": "这毫无疑问是防线争取的一步，但对于纠正引发乌克兰危机、制约欧洲的反应的失败外交政策 — — 即欧洲被误导的邻国政策（Neighborhood Policy，ENP）以及混乱的能源方针 — — 无济于事。", "index": 3044}
{"en": "On both of these fronts, the EU’s lack of strategic vision has created the impression that Europe is repeatedly being outmaneuvered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.", "zh": "在这两条阵线上，欧洲缺乏战略眼光，以至于给人们造成了被俄罗斯总统普京玩弄于鼓掌之间的印象。", "index": 3045}
{"en": "It increasingly appears that Ukraine is becoming locked in a “frozen conflict” – Russia’s foreign-policy specialty.", "zh": "乌克兰危机日益表现出陷入“冻结冲突”的迹象 — — 此乃俄罗斯外交政策的专长。", "index": 3046}
{"en": "Indeed, the situation in Ukraine represents a tactical victory for Russia, with the fragile but enduring ceasefire – and accompanying legislation that grants Donetsk and Luhansk considerable political autonomy – allowing Russia to entrench the conflict near the EU’s border.", "zh": "事实上，乌克兰局势表明俄罗斯取得了战术性胜利，脆弱但一直得以维持的停火 — — 以及随之发生的授予顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克巨大政治自治权的立法 — — 让俄罗斯可以在欧盟眼皮底下根深蒂固地建立冲突。", "index": 3047}
{"en": "Moreover, the delayed implementation of key elements of the EU’s association agreement with Ukraine is clear evidence that, at the moment, Russia dictates the terms of EU-Ukrainian engagement.", "zh": "此外，欧盟与乌克兰的入盟协定的关键要素迟迟得不到执行，这清楚地表明眼下俄罗斯主宰着欧盟-乌克兰联姻的条件。", "index": 3048}
{"en": "In Europe, the Kremlin has been able to pursue a successful divide-and-rule strategy, particularly in view of Hungary’s decision to suspend gas flows to Ukraine.", "zh": "在欧洲，克里姆林宫一直能够追求成功的分而治之（divide-and-rule）战略，匈牙利暂停向乌克兰输气的决定就是显著的例子。", "index": 3049}
{"en": "Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government, whose behavior in recent years has been at odds with the EU’s criteria for democracy, now openly approves of authoritarian regimes – and Putin’s, in particular – with serious potential consequences for European unity.", "zh": "匈牙利总理奥班政府近几年来的行为与欧盟的民主标准格格不入，现在又公开支持给欧洲的统一带来严重阴影的极权政权 — — 特别是普京政权。", "index": 3050}
{"en": "Nonetheless, the timing of the current ceasefire, which coincides with the installation of a new EU Commission, is advantageous, as is Putin’s shortsighted emphasis on tactical victories.", "zh": "尽管如此，当前停火的时机 — — 正逢欧盟委员会换届 — — 非常有利，普京短视地强调战术性胜利亦然。", "index": 3051}
{"en": "EU leaders should take advantage of the break in the fighting to stop reacting and start anticipating.", "zh": "欧盟领导人应该利用战斗间歇停止被动反应，开始主动预测。", "index": 3052}
{"en": "With a long-term strategic vision, the EU could overwhelm and ultimately undermine Putin’s short-term successes.", "zh": "欧盟可以着眼于长期战略，克服并最终破坏普京的短期成功。", "index": 3053}
{"en": "Such a vision must include a reconceptualization of the ENP.", "zh": "如此算盘必须包括重新定义ENP。", "index": 3054}
{"en": "The program’s mission – to help guide the political, social, and economic transitions of neighboring states – is not inherently problematic; the problem lies in the way that the mission has been interpreted and pursued.", "zh": "该计划的任务 — — 帮助引导邻国的政治、社会和经济转型 — — 并无本质问题；问题在于该任务的解释和执行方法。", "index": 3055}
{"en": "For starters, the ENP assumes that all of the EU’s neighbors, both in the south and in the east, ultimately want to realize European values and structures in their own countries.", "zh": "首先，ENP假设所有欧盟邻国 — — 不管是南部邻国还是东部邻国 — — 说到底都希望在本国实现欧洲价值和结构。", "index": 3056}
{"en": "In other words, the ENP does not account for the developmental, cultural, and aspirational differences among the EU’s partner countries.", "zh": "换句话说，ENP没有考虑欧盟伙伴国之间的发展、文化和志趣差异。", "index": 3057}
{"en": "The ENP suffers operationally from its excessively technical approach and lack of strategic vision.", "zh": "在实际操作中，ENP过度强调技术方针，缺少战略眼光，因此大受影响。", "index": 3058}
{"en": "For example, before the Ukraine crisis, the European Commission was so focused on negotiating the technical features of the association agreement that it did not consider adequately the potential fallout of the process – such as, say, a response from Russia.", "zh": "比如，在乌克兰危机前，欧盟委员会全部精力都集中在入盟协定的技术细节上，完全没有充分考虑该进程潜在后果 — — 比如俄罗斯的反应。", "index": 3059}
{"en": "To be sure, the EU recognized its need for a coherent strategy, and attempted to resolve it by establishing the European External Action Service and the position of High Representative for Foreign Affairs.", "zh": "平心而论，欧盟认识到需要统一的战略，也试图通过设立欧洲对外行动署（European External Action Service，EEAS）和对外事务高级代表解决这一问题。", "index": 3060}
{"en": "But the EEAS ended up in a turf war with the European Commission, and outgoing High Representative Catherine Ashton did little to ease the tension, owing to her unwillingness to involve herself in intra-EU disagreements.", "zh": "但EEAS最终在与欧盟委员会的扯皮中无疾而终，而即将卸任的高级代表凯瑟琳·阿什顿（Catherine Ashton）也没能缓和这一紧张局面，因为她自己也不愿卷入欧盟内部的纠纷中。", "index": 3061}
{"en": "It is telling that Ashton has made progress exclusively in areas defined by ample consensus, such as the negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program and the pact between Kosovo and Serbia.", "zh": "很能说明问题的是阿什顿只在用充分共识的领域取得了进展，如伊朗核计划谈判和科索沃与塞尔维亚的契约。", "index": 3062}
{"en": "Further eroding Europe’s effectiveness is its fragmented approach to securing energy supplies.", "zh": "进一步制约欧洲效率的是其在确保能源供给方面的各自为政。", "index": 3063}
{"en": "With every country largely controlling its own energy policy, Europe’s energy market has become inefficient and excessively dependent on Russian supplies.", "zh": "各个国家大体上都控制着本国的能源政策，欧洲能源市场变得效率低下，过度依赖俄罗斯的供给。", "index": 3064}
{"en": "To the extent that there has been an EU-wide energy strategy, it has related to renewables, rather than the intersection of geopolitics and energy security.", "zh": "泛欧盟能源政策是存在的，但是关于可再生能源而非地缘政治和能源安全互动的。", "index": 3065}
{"en": "But there is reason for hope.", "zh": "但我们仍可抱有很大希望。", "index": 3066}
{"en": "The new Commission, which its president, Jean Claude Juncker, has restructured significantly, could provide Europe with the strategic leadership it so badly needs.", "zh": "新欧盟委员会主席让·克劳德·容克（Jean Claude Juncker）对其进行了大刀阔斧的重组，将为欧洲提供急需的战略领导。", "index": 3067}
{"en": "In fact, Juncker has already expressed a desire to integrate incoming High Representative Federica Mogherini into the Commission’s policy program.", "zh": "事实上，容克已经表达了让即将赴任的高级代表费得利卡·莫格里尼（Federica Mogherini）参与欧盟委员会政策计划的意思。", "index": 3068}
{"en": "The new structure – which tasks Mogherini with guiding and coordinating the work of multiple commissioners, including those responsible for trade, the ENP, and climate and energy – should strengthen the coherence and direction of EU policies, particularly after Mogherini completes her European Council-mandated assessment of the global strategic landscape.", "zh": "这一新结构 — — 莫格里尼将负担指导和协调多名委员工作的任务，包括负责贸易、ENP和气候与能源的委员 — — 应能强化欧盟政策的统一和防相，特别是在莫格里尼完成了她的欧洲理事会任命的全球战略局势评估后。", "index": 3069}
{"en": "But a restructured Commission is not enough to ensure a reset of Europe’s foreign-policy strategy.", "zh": "但重组后的欧盟委员会仍不足以确保欧洲外交政策战略的重设。", "index": 3070}
{"en": "For that to happen, Mogherini must assert herself as a leader, backed by Juncker and the new European Council president, Donald Tusk.", "zh": "若要实现这一点，莫格里尼必须把自己当作受容克和欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·塔斯克（Donald Tusk）支持的领导者。", "index": 3071}
{"en": "And, most important, all EU member states must recommit themselves to cooperation.", "zh": "最重要的是，所有欧盟成员国都必须承诺合作。", "index": 3072}
{"en": "The Ukrainian people have demonstrated the power of Europe’s values.", "zh": "乌克兰人民已经证明了欧洲价值的力量。", "index": 3073}
{"en": "Indeed, Europe has a large set of tools at its disposal; it just needs to figure out how to use them.", "zh": "事实上，欧洲有的是可用手段；它只是需要明白如何使用。", "index": 3074}
{"en": "If it can, it will be better able to respond not only to the Russian challenge, but also to many of the other challenges that characterize today’s rapidly shifting global environment.", "zh": "如果可以，欧洲不但可更好地响应俄罗斯挑战，对当今快速变化的全球环境的其他许多挑战同样如此。", "index": 3075}
{"en": "A Europe of Women?", "zh": "女性主导欧洲？", "index": 3076}
{"en": "PARIS – Are women in Europe on the verge of becoming an engine for political change?", "zh": "发自巴黎 — — 欧洲女性是否将摇身一变成为政治变革的原动力？", "index": 3077}
{"en": "In economic-development circles, experience and common sense suggest that progress, accountability, and hard work start with and depend on women.", "zh": "经验和常识告诉我们，经济发展周期中的进步，责任和勤奋都发端于女性并依靠她们走向成功。", "index": 3078}
{"en": "Micro-credits, for example, are much more efficient when women receive and repay them.", "zh": "以小额贷款为例，由女性获取并偿付的贷款一般都更有效率。", "index": 3079}
{"en": "Perhaps because they bear children and must find the means to feed them, women are now perceived as the best and most determined “agents of change.”", "zh": "或许因为女性往往负有养育儿女的责任，于是也就成了最优秀且最坚决的“变革代理人 ” 。", "index": 3080}
{"en": "That seems to be as true now of European politics as it has been of economics in parts of Africa and Asia.", "zh": "上述情况早就在亚非部分经济体中有所体现，而当今欧洲政治似乎也在向其靠拢。", "index": 3081}
{"en": "The results of Italy’s recent municipal elections could be a signal of an incipient electoral dynamic: it was women who voted Silvio Berlusconi’s party out of power in Milan, a city that he has long controlled (and the original seat of his power).", "zh": "最近的意大利地方政府大选则堪称这种新生选举原动力所发出的一个信号：正是女性选票在米兰市长选举中把西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的政党拉了下台，要知道米兰一直以来都由贝氏控制（也是其权力的根源所在 ） 。", "index": 3082}
{"en": "No direct link exists between that result and the dramatic Dominique Strauss-Kahn scandal in New York, but in the immediate aftermath of DSK’s arrest, Italian women and young voters decisively mobilized to defeat Berlusconi’s party (led in Milan, ironically, by a woman).", "zh": "贝卢斯科尼阵营的溃败与国际货币基金组织前总裁斯特劳斯-卡恩在纽约的离奇性丑闻本无直接联系，但在后者被捕之后，意大利的女性和年轻选民当即动员起来反对贝卢斯科尼阵营（讽刺的是该阵营的米兰市长恰好是位女性 ） 。", "index": 3083}
{"en": "These voters could no longer stand the combination of machismo and vulgarity that had once served so well the man Italian humorists now call “Berlus-Kahn.”", "zh": "她们再也无法忍受这种大男子主义和粗鄙言行的结合体，即便这些元素曾被如今意大利漫画家称为“贝卢斯-卡恩”的那个男人玩得出神入化。", "index": 3084}
{"en": "When Berlusconi first came to power 17 years ago, he had the support of a majority of women.", "zh": "当贝卢斯科尼在17年前首次当权的时候，他曾受到广大女性的一致爱戴。", "index": 3085}
{"en": "They were not discouraged by his ambivalent perception of them (by turns celebrating their traditional domesticity and glorifying their sexual objectification).", "zh": "她们并未受到他对女性矛盾看法的影响（一边赞美她们在传统家庭生活中的角色，另一方面又将她们比作男人的性玩物 ） 。", "index": 3086}
{"en": "But Italian society has changed: most women are now working, and they are no longer willing to accept Belusconi’s anachronistic and outrageous chauvinism.", "zh": "但意大利的社会早已今非昔比：如今大部分女性都是职业女性，因此对贝卢斯科尼那套陈词滥调及其胡作非为的大男子主义失去了兴趣。", "index": 3087}
{"en": "Italian men may pity the aging, isolated leader, who looks increasingly like his wax effigy at Madame Tussaud’s.", "zh": "意大利男性可能会同情这位日渐衰老孤立的领导人，因为他越来越像自己在杜莎夫人蜡像馆里的蜡像了。", "index": 3088}
{"en": "But Italian women (indeed, women everywhere, it seems) feel only anger and humiliation over a man so obsessed with himself, his various criminal trials, and his vulgar pleasures that he appears to them to have no purpose left except to remain in power as long as possible.", "zh": "但对意大利的女性来说（事实上几乎世界各地的女性都一样 ） ， 她们对一个如此自恋，如此沉迷于各种犯罪指控和低级趣味的人感到无比愤怒和羞耻，在她们眼中贝卢斯科尼一无是处，只不过是个贪恋权位的政客而已。", "index": 3089}
{"en": "Women, of course, are not alone in their opposition to Berlusconi, but they made the difference in Milan.", "zh": "当然反对贝卢斯科尼的并不仅仅是女性，但她们在米兰表现得特别抢眼。", "index": 3090}
{"en": "They are the incarnation of modernity, animated by a yearning for simple dignity and respect.", "zh": "她们成为了现代性的化身，在渴求基本尊严与尊重的驱使下挺身而出。", "index": 3091}
{"en": "They are not alone in the vanguard of a new Europe of women.", "zh": "在崭新的女性主导的欧洲中，她们不是一个人在战斗。", "index": 3092}
{"en": "As Iceland spiraled into bankruptcy, owing the irresponsible behavior of its mostly male political and financial elites, the people of Iceland decided that only a strong and responsible woman could redress the country’s problems.", "zh": "随着冰岛逐渐破产的过程中 — — 这是由其主要由男性组成的政治和金融界精英阶层的不负责任行为所导致的 — — 其国民一致认定，只有一个强势和勇于担当的女性才能解决国家当前所面临的问题。", "index": 3093}
{"en": "So they elected one as President.", "zh": "于是他们选出了一位女总统。", "index": 3094}
{"en": "The depth and gravity of the current economic and social crisis in countries like Greece, Portugal, and Spain present women with a new opportunity.", "zh": "在希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙这样的国家，国内经济和社会危机的深刻和严重程度也为当地女性带来一次新的机会。", "index": 3095}
{"en": "Confronted with what many of them perceive as the equivalent of an “economic war,” women are playing an increasingly important role in maintaining their families’ financial security.", "zh": "在面对被许多人所谓的“经济战争”时，女性在维持家庭财政安全方面扮演了越来越重要的角色。", "index": 3096}
{"en": "And the more widespread this becomes, the more women will seek a political role that reflects their economic clout.", "zh": "随着危机的扩散，女性会寻求获取更多能够体现其经济影响力的政治地位。", "index": 3097}
{"en": "Of course, women’s changing status may not translate immediately into growing political influence.", "zh": "当然女性地位的变化不会立刻转化为政治影响力。", "index": 3098}
{"en": "And the rest of Europe might never follow the example of Scandinavia, where gender equality has advanced much further than anywhere else.", "zh": "而欧洲其他国家可能永远不会向斯堪的那维亚半岛国家看齐 — — 在那里的性别平等要比世界任何地方都发展得更快。", "index": 3099}
{"en": "But such a dynamic does now seem to be in motion.", "zh": "但这种动力确实不断在推进之中。", "index": 3100}
{"en": "Similarly, regardless of the outcome of DSK’s trial in New York, the case might represent a turning point in the treatment of women in Europe.", "zh": "同样，不管IMF前总裁的纽约审判结果如何，这个案子都将成为欧洲女性社会待遇的一个转折点。", "index": 3101}
{"en": "Public and private displays of atavistic machismo, one hopes, will no longer be considered acceptable.", "zh": "在人们的意识中，那种对公开或私下的返祖式大男子主义行为的认同也将一去不返了。", "index": 3102}
{"en": "In the Arab world, too, from Tunis to Cairo, young women have played an important role in the revolutionary process.", "zh": "与此同时在从突尼斯到开罗的阿拉伯世界里，年轻女性在这场茉莉花革命中也扮演了重要角色。", "index": 3103}
{"en": "Their appetite for change – understandable, given the treatment of women in traditional Muslim societies – appears to be one of the main causes underlying the force of the revolutionary impulse in Tunisia and Egypt.", "zh": "她们对变革的渴望 — — 只要想一下她们在传统穆斯林社会中的待遇，就不难理解这种渴望了 — — 成为了突尼斯和埃及革命动力的主要来源之一。", "index": 3104}
{"en": "None of this is to argue that “women” are a universal force for positive change in Europe and around the world.", "zh": "但上述一切也并不能证明“女性”就是欧洲以及全世界改革的积极力量。", "index": 3105}
{"en": "Consider, for example, Marine Le Pen, the new head of France’s National Front, Elena Ceaucescu, the sordid wife of the former Romanian dictator, or, more recently, Tunisian ex-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s wife, Leila Trabelsi, who fled to Dubai with 1.5 tons of gold plundered from the central bank.", "zh": "不要忘记这世界上还有诸如法国国民阵线的新女领袖马琳·勒庞，恶行累累的前罗马尼亚独裁者之妻埃列娜·齐奥塞斯库，以及最近曝光的莱拉·特拉贝尔西，这位突尼斯前总统本阿里的妻子逃亡到了迪拜，还不忘带上从突尼斯中央银行盗取的1.5吨黄金。", "index": 3106}
{"en": "The point, simply, is that with so many people in so many countries demanding far-reaching change, the politics of gender is very much in play – in Europe and beyond.", "zh": "简而言之，在欧洲境内外的众多国家之中有如此多人渴望实现意义深远的革新，那么性别政治也会在其中大显身手。", "index": 3107}
{"en": "The main question is whether the growing number of women in politics will deliver the different perspectives and modes of leadership that many voters (or protesters) now seem to crave.", "zh": "但最主要的问题是，随着女性政治参与度的不断上升，她们又是否能创造出选民（或示威者们）渴望的崭新前景和领导模式呢？", "index": 3108}
{"en": "A Euro Sabbatical", "zh": "休病假的欧元区受灾国", "index": 3109}
{"en": "MUNICH – Under substantial external pressure, the eurozone’s crisis-hit countries are, at long last, bringing themselves to make painful cuts in their government budgets.", "zh": "发自慕尼黑 — — 在持续的外部压力之下，那些遭到危机侵袭的欧元区国家终于放弃了长期以来的抵抗，开始忍痛削减财政预算。", "index": 3110}
{"en": "Salaries are being slashed and public employees sacked to reduce new borrowing to a tolerable level.", "zh": "一方面大幅下调工资水平，另一方面削减公务员职位，希望能令新增债务的规模维持在一个可忍受的水平上。", "index": 3111}
{"en": "And yet, competitiveness in Greece and Portugal, in particular, is not improving.", "zh": "但这些国家的竞争力 — — 尤其是希腊和葡萄牙 — — 却并未得到改善。", "index": 3112}
{"en": "The latest Eurostat figures on the evolution of the price index for self-produced goods (GDP deflator) show no tendency whatsoever in the crisis-stricken countries towards real devaluation. But real devaluation, achieved by lowering prices vis-à-vis their eurozone competitors, is the only way to re-establish these countries’ competitiveness.", "zh": "最新的欧盟统计局数字显示：无论哪个受灾国家的自产商品价格指数（扣除GDP中的通货膨胀因素后）都没有出现向实质性贬值靠拢的趋势，而如果要重新树立竞争力优势的话就只能通过压低与其他欧元区国家竞争时的我方报价，也就是实质性贬值。", "index": 3113}
{"en": "A reduction in unit labor costs can also increase competitiveness only to the extent that it actually results in price reductions.", "zh": "也只有在真正实现价格下降的情况下，单位劳动力成本的降低才能转化为竞争力的提升。", "index": 3114}
{"en": "After all, it was price inflation in the crisis countries, fueled by massive inflows of cheap credit following the introduction of the euro, that resulted in their loss of competitiveness, ballooning current-account deficits, and accumulation of enormous foreign debt.", "zh": "毕竟，正是在引入欧元后廉价信贷大量涌入，随后引发价格通货膨胀才最终导致了这些国家的竞争力下降，经常账户赤字膨胀和大量外债的积累。", "index": 3115}
{"en": "Now that capital markets are no longer willing to finance these deficits, prices should be going into reverse, but this, obviously, is not happening.", "zh": "如今资本市场已不愿再去填补这些赤字缺口，因此价格应该逆向走低，但很显然，预料中的这一切都没有发生。", "index": 3116}
{"en": "In 2010, inflation in some of the crisis countries lagged slightly behind that of their eurozone competitors.", "zh": "在2010年，某些欧元区危机国的通胀水平仅比同区竞争者低一点点。", "index": 3117}
{"en": "The latest Eurostat figures for the third quarter of 2011, however, are already showing a different picture: the price level in Portugal and Greece has remained practically unchanged over the course of the year, and in Italy and Spain it even rose slightly (by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively).", "zh": "但最新的2011年第三季度欧盟统计局数字则展示出一个截然不同的画面：葡萄牙和希腊的价格水平在经历了一整年的救灾行动后依然维持原状，意大利和西班牙的价格水平甚至还分别略微上升了0.4%和0.3 % 。", "index": 3118}
{"en": "Only Ireland continued on a path of rapid deflation – as it has since the country’s real-estate bubble burst in 2006 – with a relative price decrease of 2.2%.", "zh": "只有爱尔兰继续在迅速贬值 — — 从该国2006年地产泡沫爆破之后就是如此，至今相对价格已经下跌了2.2 % 。", "index": 3119}
{"en": "On the whole, Ireland has become cheaper relative to its eurozone competitors by a total of 15% over the course of the past five years.", "zh": "从整体上看，在经历了五年调整后爱尔兰相对于其他欧元区竞争者来说价格已经便宜了总共15 % 。", "index": 3120}
{"en": "This internal devaluation is paying off: while Ireland was still running a current-account deficit of 5.6% of GDP in 2008, the European Commission expects the outturn for 2011 to have been a 0.7%-of-GDP current-account surplus.", "zh": "这一内部贬值进程是有所回报的：爱尔兰在2008年时的经常账户赤字相当于GDP的5.6 % ， 而欧盟委员会预计该国会在2011年实现相当于GDP0.7%的盈余。", "index": 3121}
{"en": "True, much of this is mere debt-service relief, given that Ireland was able to repay its foreign liabilities with self-printed money, for which it pays only 1% interest.", "zh": "没错，考虑到爱尔兰可以自己印刷货币来偿还那些利率只有1%的外债，上述大部分成果都仅仅是缓解了债务偿付问题。", "index": 3122}
{"en": "However, Ireland’s big trade surplus did improve further.", "zh": "但爱尔兰的大宗贸易盈余确实得到了进一步改善。", "index": 3123}
{"en": "Ireland owes much of this turnaround to its efficient export sector, whose supporters were able to enforce a political U-turn.", "zh": "爱尔兰所实现的逆转大部分都归功于其高效的出口部门 — — 这些部门的支持者们有能力促成政治上的转向。", "index": 3124}
{"en": "Greece, on the other hand, is under the influence of a strong import lobby.", "zh": "相反希腊国内进口部门的游说力量却极为强大。", "index": 3125}
{"en": "As the Greek economics minister, Michalis Chrysochoidis, has said, this is attributable to European Union subsidies, which drove entrepreneurs to follow the easy money into the import sector.", "zh": "正如希腊经济部长米哈利斯·赫里索希季斯（Michalis Chrysochoidis）所说，这都要怪欧盟实施的补贴政策，搞得企业家们都跑到进口部门去挣快钱了。", "index": 3126}
{"en": "Now these importers form a powerful bulwark against any policy that causes deflation, even though lowering prices – and thereby redirecting Greek demand from foreign to domestic products and helping tourism – is the only way to put the Greek economy back on its feet.", "zh": "如今这些进口商已经构筑了一个强大的壁垒来抵制任何可能引发通货紧缩的政策，即便降低价格 — — 并因此将希腊的需求从外部转向内部产品同时扶助旅游业发展 — — 才是让希腊经济重回正轨的唯一方法。", "index": 3127}
{"en": "Since Greece’s current-account deficit as a share of GDP was three times higher than Ireland’s, Greek prices would have to fall by about half to achieve the same kind of success.", "zh": "由于希腊经常账户赤字占GDP的比例比爱尔兰高三倍，希腊的价格水平也必须下跌一半才能取得爱尔兰那样的成就。", "index": 3128}
{"en": "It is inconceivable that Greece could manage that within the eurozone without widespread social unrest, if not conditions approaching those of civil war.", "zh": "但谁也不相信希腊能在避免大规模社会动乱 — — 说不定还会濒临内战边缘 — — 的情况下作为欧元区成员国实现这一点。", "index": 3129}
{"en": "But it isn’t just importers who are blocking real devaluation. Unions, too, are resisting the necessary wage reductions, and public and private debtors fear the prospect of insolvency if their assets and revenues are assessed at a lower value, while their debts remain unchanged.", "zh": "而且阻止实质性贬值的不仅仅是进口商，公会也在抵制必要的工资削减，虽然债务总额依然不变，但无论公私债务人都害怕国家破产预期会令自己的资产和收益估值降低。", "index": 3130}
{"en": "The situation is intractable.", "zh": "由此可见，情况相当棘手。", "index": 3131}
{"en": "Many people regard debt relief and socialization of debts as the only way out.", "zh": "许多人都认为债务缓解以及债务社会化才是唯一出路。", "index": 3132}
{"en": "This help has been given.", "zh": "但其实这类手段早就实施了。", "index": 3133}
{"en": "The recent agreement gave Greece relief of €237 billion ($316 billion), about 30% more than Greece’s net national income of roughly €180 billion euros.But such help only entrenches the wrong prices – and thus the economy’s lack of competitiveness.", "zh": "最近签订的协议减免了希腊2370亿欧元（折合3160亿美元）的债务，比希腊约1800亿欧元的净国民收入还高出30 % 。 但这类援助仅仅是巩固了那些错误的价格 — — 以及随之产生的国家竞争力低下状况。", "index": 3134}
{"en": "The debts will re-emerge like a tumor, growing year by year, while undermining the creditworthiness of stable eurozone countries.", "zh": "这些债务会像一个肿瘤一样重新滋长起来，一天比一天更大，同时还会腐蚀那些稳健欧元区国家的资信可靠度。", "index": 3135}
{"en": "If that happened, the euro would eventually collapse.", "zh": "如果出现这个情况的话，欧元将最终走向崩溃。", "index": 3136}
{"en": "Only a price reduction would create current-account surpluses and enable the crisis countries to pay off their foreign debts.", "zh": "只有降低价格才能创造经常账户盈余并令这些受灾国家得以偿还自身外债。", "index": 3137}
{"en": "It is time for Europe to come to terms with this remorseless truth.", "zh": "而欧洲如今也是时候面对这个残酷的现实了。", "index": 3138}
{"en": "Those crisis countries that do not want to take it upon themselves to lower their prices should be given the opportunity to leave the eurozone temporarily in order to devalue prices and debts.", "zh": "那些不愿意自己行动起来降低价格的受灾国家应该获得一个暂时脱离欧元区以削减价格和债务的机会。", "index": 3139}
{"en": "In other words, they should take a kind of euro sabbatical – a proposal that has now also been taken up by American economist Kenneth Rogoff.", "zh": "换句话说，他们应该放一个欧元意义上的离岗病假 — — 正如美国经济学家肯尼思·罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）建议的那样。", "index": 3140}
{"en": "After the ensuing financial thunderstorm died down, the sun would come out again very quickly.", "zh": "在在随之而来的金融风暴逐渐散去之后，阳光将很快重新普照大地。", "index": 3141}
{"en": "The creditor countries would have to shoulder big losses from write-downs, but they would still end up with more than they would have gotten had the crisis countries remained within the eurozone, because these countries’ new prosperity, gained by leaving, offers the only chance of recovering any assets at all.", "zh": "那些债权国可能要承担因债务减免而带来的巨大损失，但相对于把那些受灾国留在欧元区内的做法，前者最终获得的好处会更多，因为这些受灾国通过脱离而实现的繁荣才是重新追回所有资产的唯一机会。", "index": 3142}
{"en": "A Fair Deal for Turkey", "zh": "土耳其的公平待遇", "index": 3143}
{"en": "Turkey has been given what looks like an ultimatum from the EU Commission: open your ports for ships from Cyprus within a month, or you may risk a halt to the EU accession talks now underway.", "zh": "土耳其好像收到了欧盟委员会的最后通牒，那就是在一个月内向来自塞浦路斯的船只开放港口，否则，就有暂停目前正在进行的入盟谈判的危险。", "index": 3144}
{"en": "At the same time, the Commission’s latest report on Turkey’s progress toward accession notes that political reforms have slowed down, further calling into question the country’s future EU membership.", "zh": "与此同时，委员会有关土耳其入盟进展的最新报告说明，政治改革已经放慢，从而进一步质疑该国未来加入欧盟的可能性。", "index": 3145}
{"en": "The Commission’s progress report will be dealt with by the European Council next month.", "zh": "欧盟理事会将在下月研究欧盟委员会的进展报告。", "index": 3146}
{"en": "At that meeting, European leaders should ask themselves the following questions: Has the EU given Turkey a fair deal in the case of Cyprus?", "zh": "在这一会议中，欧洲领导人应当向他们自己提出下面的问题：在塞浦路斯问题上，欧盟是否公平对待土耳其？", "index": 3147}
{"en": "Has the EU’s behavior been consistent in supporting political reform in Turkey?", "zh": "欧盟是否一如既往地支持土耳其的政治改革？", "index": 3148}
{"en": "What are the EU’s long-term interests vis-à-vis Turkey?", "zh": "在土耳其的问题上，欧盟的长久利益是什么？", "index": 3149}
{"en": "If the answers to the first two questions are “no” – as I believe they are – the third question becomes vitally important.", "zh": "如果前两个问题的答案正如我所相信的那样是否定的话，那么，第三个问题就极为重要。", "index": 3150}
{"en": "True, Turkey has closed its ports to ships from (Greek) Cyprus, and this is a violation of agreements.", "zh": "确实，土耳其对(希腊)塞浦路斯关闭了其港口，这违反了协议。", "index": 3151}
{"en": "But it is also true that the northern Turkish part of Cyprus is denied access to free trade and other benefits from EU-membership.", "zh": "但是，拒绝给予塞浦路斯北部的土耳其部分欧盟成员的自由贸易待遇以及其他利益也是事实。", "index": 3152}
{"en": "This is because Cyprus remains a divided island.", "zh": "这是因为塞浦路斯依然还是一个分裂的岛屿。", "index": 3153}
{"en": "It was assumed that Cyprus should be united when the country joined the EU in 2004.", "zh": "当时认为，当塞浦路斯在2004年加入欧盟之时将会统一。", "index": 3154}
{"en": "A United Nations plan for unification was accepted by the Turkish part.", "zh": "土耳其方面接受了联合国提出的统一方案。", "index": 3155}
{"en": "But the Greek Cypriots voted against the plan because their leaders did not live up to the implicit deal with the EU to support it.", "zh": "但是，希腊族塞浦路斯的领导人并没有遵守与欧盟的默契来支持这一方案，因此，它投票否决了这一方案。", "index": 3156}
{"en": "Nevertheless, Cyprus became an EU member – but only the Greek part.", "zh": "但是，塞浦路斯成为了欧盟成员，但仅仅是希腊部分。", "index": 3157}
{"en": "This was clearly a mistake, because it made the EU part of the conflict.", "zh": "这明显是一个错误，因为它使得欧盟成为冲突的一部分。", "index": 3158}
{"en": "It gave Greek Cypriot leaders the possibility of blocking progress in negotiations between the EU and Turkey.", "zh": "它给了塞浦路斯希腊族领导人阻碍欧盟与土耳其之间谈判进展的可能性。", "index": 3159}
{"en": "So how can Turkey under these conditions maintain confidence in the EU’s fairness?", "zh": "那么，在这种情况下，土耳其如何对欧盟的公平维持信心呢？", "index": 3160}
{"en": "Political and legal reforms in Turkey in recent years have been remarkably far-reaching, for they have clearly been spurred by Turks’ wish to move closer to the EU.", "zh": "近年来土耳其的政治和法治改革极为广泛，因为土耳其人向欧盟靠拢的愿望促进了这些改革。", "index": 3161}
{"en": "But Turkish public support for EU membership has fallen dramatically as Turks have grown to feel that they are not being given a fair deal.", "zh": "但是，土耳其人越发感觉到他们没有得到公平待遇，因此土耳其公众对于入盟的支持已经急剧下降。", "index": 3162}
{"en": "This has given new strength to those who want Turkey to develop in another direction, towards a more Islamic society instead of a modern secular state.", "zh": "这样，就给那些想要让土耳其向另一个方向发展的人增添了新的力量。 他们想要让土耳其向更为伊斯兰社会、而非现代世俗国家的方向发展。", "index": 3163}
{"en": "Therefore, the recent lack of progress in Turkey’s reform process can to a large extent be explained by the EU’s behavior.", "zh": "因此，欧盟的举动就可以在很大程度上解释最近土耳其的改革进程缺乏进展了。", "index": 3164}
{"en": "This leaves us with the third question: what kind of Turkey does the EU want?", "zh": "这样就出现了第三个问题：欧盟想要一个什么样的土耳其？", "index": 3165}
{"en": "There should be no doubt about the answer: it is clearly in the EU’s interest to see Turkey’s democracy and economy continue to strengthen.", "zh": "对于这一问题应当没有疑问，那就是，土耳其的民主和经济继续得到加强显然符合欧盟的利益。", "index": 3166}
{"en": "More than 40 years ago, it was promised that once Turkey lives up to the preconditions for membership, it will be welcome in the EU.", "zh": "四十多年前，欧盟保证说一旦土耳其满足了成员的先觉条件就将欢迎其入盟。", "index": 3167}
{"en": "It is high time that European leaders take this promise seriously.", "zh": "现在，欧盟领导人们应当认真履行这一保证了。", "index": 3168}
{"en": "It is a sad fact that a large majority of voters in the EU are against Turkish membership.", "zh": "欧盟内部的大多数选民反对土耳其入盟，这是一个悲哀的事实。", "index": 3169}
{"en": "But they are reacting to the current situation.", "zh": "但是，他们不过是对当前的局势做出反应。", "index": 3170}
{"en": "When they are asked if they would like a reformed Turkey as a partner – a Turkey that lives up fully to the conditions for membership described in the Copenhagen Criteria (democracy, rule of law, respect for human rights, and an effective market economy) – many more are inclined to say yes.", "zh": "如果问他们，他们是否想要一个改革后的土耳其作为伙伴，有更多的人倾向于说是的。 所谓改革后的土耳其，就是完全符合哥本哈根标准指定的入盟条件，也就是民主、法治、尊重人权以及有效的市场经济。", "index": 3171}
{"en": "European leaders must therefore take up two challenges.", "zh": "因此，欧洲领导人必须接受两项挑战。", "index": 3172}
{"en": "First, they should say clearly to their own voters that the EU must live up to its promises to Turkey, and that this is in the larger interest of all Europeans.", "zh": "首先，他们应当向自己的选民明确地说明，欧盟必须遵守对土耳其所做得保证，而且，这也符合所有欧洲人更大的利益。", "index": 3173}
{"en": "Second, they should give Turkey a fair deal in the negotiations.", "zh": "第二，他们必须在谈判中公平对待土耳其。", "index": 3174}
{"en": "The first litmus test on European leadership concerns the practical problem of access to harbors.", "zh": "欧洲领导作用的第一块试金石就是有关使用港口的现实问题。", "index": 3175}
{"en": "Here the Finns, who chair the EU right now, have taken an initiative to implement a pragmatic solution that takes into consideration both sides in the conflict.", "zh": "在这一问题上，欧盟轮值主席国芬兰提议落实一项现实的、考虑冲突双方的解决方案。", "index": 3176}
{"en": "The Finnish initiative should be given strong support from all European leaders.", "zh": "所有欧洲领导人都应该大力支持芬兰的提议。", "index": 3177}
{"en": "At the same time, a new effort should be made to bring life to the UN’s proposals regarding Cyprus.", "zh": "同时，应当重新努力让联合国有关塞浦路斯的提议恢复生机。", "index": 3178}
{"en": "If this means putting pressure on some actors within the EU’s own ranks, so be it.", "zh": "如果这意味着对某些欧盟成员国施加压力，那就应当如此。", "index": 3179}
{"en": "A Farewell to (Glorious) War", "zh": "永别了（荣耀的）战争", "index": 3180}
{"en": "In recent days, Italy’s government fell after losing a parliamentary vote on the country’s troop deployment in Afghanistan, while Britain and Denmark announced that they are to begin withdrawing their troops from Iraq.", "zh": "最近几天，意大利政府在国会中未能通过向阿富汗部署军队的议案之后倒台。 同时英国和丹麦也宣布了它们将开始把部队撤出伊拉克。", "index": 3181}
{"en": "Whereas the Bush administration is deploying an additional 21,000 American soldiers in Iraq, and is pushing for more allied troops in Afghanistan, America’s allies are rejecting its Middle East policy.", "zh": "而布什政府却正向伊拉克增派21000名美国士兵，并敦促盟国增兵阿富汗。 美国的盟友们正抵制其中东政策。", "index": 3182}
{"en": "They are increasingly convinced that “victory” will be elusive in any asymmetric conflict between states, however powerful, and religiously driven armed insurgents.", "zh": "它们日益坚信在任何不对称的国家间冲突中，不论武装叛乱者有多强大、其宗教驱动力有多深厚 ， “ 胜利”都是不可捉摸的。", "index": 3183}
{"en": "Donald Rumsfeld’s dogma of military “transformation” – the technological upgrading of an army’s capacity to enable decisive victory with fewer troops – failed resoundingly in Iraq.", "zh": "唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德的军事“转型”定论—以军队实力的技术升级来实现用更少的部队取得决定性胜利—在伊拉克彻底失败。", "index": 3184}
{"en": "Nor could Israel, with its overwhelming technological advantage, defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon.", "zh": "以色列即便拥有超强的技术优势也未能打败黎巴嫩真主党。", "index": 3185}
{"en": "More rockets and missiles fell on northern Israel in 33 days than hit Britain during all of World War II.", "zh": "在33天时间里落到以色列北部的火箭和导弹数量比二战期间袭击英国的还多。", "index": 3186}
{"en": "So the Israelis now must reckon with an entirely new phenomenon: an asymmetric entity, Hezbollah, with nation-state firepower.", "zh": "因此以色列人现在必须正视这一全新的现象：一个拥有国家级火力的不对称实体，真主党。", "index": 3187}
{"en": "So the fierce debate over whether to increase the size of American ground forces in Iraq is beside the point.", "zh": "所以关于是否应该扩大美军驻伊拉克地面部队规模的激烈争论是毫无意义的。", "index": 3188}
{"en": "Neither the Soviet experience in Afghanistan in the 1980’s nor NATO’s today vindicates the claim that troop numbers are what matter most on the modern battlefield.", "zh": "前苏联1980年代在阿富汗的经验和北约当今的情况都无法证明军队的数量是现代战场上最为重要的因素这一命题。", "index": 3189}
{"en": "When geo-strategic military front lines are non-existent, as in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq, mass no longer equals victory.", "zh": "当地缘战略军事前沿不复存在，正如在科索沃、阿富汗和伊拉克那样，人多势众就不再等同于胜利。", "index": 3190}
{"en": "The great military thinker Carl von Clausewitz’s notion of “decisive battles” as the “center of gravity” of war is simply irrelevant to conflicts that have no visible “center of gravity.”", "zh": "伟大的军事思想家克劳斯·冯·克劳塞维茨关于将“决定性战役”作为战争的“重心”的理念在全然没有“重心”的冲突中也失去了用武之地。", "index": 3191}
{"en": "Indeed, while wars from the time of Hannibal’s defeat of the Romans in 216 B.C. to the Gulf War of 1991 had this center of gravity, with a massive concentration of force capable of bringing an enemy to its knees, such industrial inter-state wars have now become an historical anachronism.", "zh": "的确，尽管从公元前216年汉尼拔击溃罗马人到1991年的海湾战争都有一个这样的重心（其表现是能对敌方施以毁灭性打击的军事力量的大规模集中 ） ， 而这种工业化的国家间战争现在已经成为历史陈迹。", "index": 3192}
{"en": "Most states nowadays lie within borders that are widely accepted as legitimate, and they increasingly abide by international norms of behavior in times of war.", "zh": "现今大多数国家都有被广泛认可的合法边界，它们在战争时期也越来越遵守国际规范和行为准则。", "index": 3193}
{"en": "In fact, the obligation of states to abide by humanitarian rules of conduct while their enemies are free to barbarize warfare is what makes asymmetric wars especially insoluble.", "zh": "事实上，国家遵守人道主义行为规范的义务与其敌方肆意挑起野蛮战事的矛盾使得不对称的战争特别难以调解。", "index": 3194}
{"en": "Moreover, in an era of global media and international war crimes courts, the criteria for states’ use of military force have become more complex than ever.", "zh": "此外，在一个全球性媒体和国际战争罪行法庭的时代，国家使用武力的条件变得越来越复杂。", "index": 3195}
{"en": "Inter-state combat may still occur where strategic front lines can be found, such as Israel’s border with Syria, India’s border with Pakistan, and the border dividing the two Koreas.", "zh": "在战略前沿存在的地方，如叙以边界、印巴边界和南北韩分界线，国家间的武装冲突仍然可能发生。", "index": 3196}
{"en": "In such cases, war, as the Egyptians showed in 1973, might still serve as an avenue to resolving a conflict.", "zh": "在这种情况下，战争，正如埃及人在1973年所展示的那样，仍可能成为解决冲突的一种途径。", "index": 3197}
{"en": "The Syrians might be tempted to launch an offensive against Israel with the objective of breaking the deadlock over the future of the Golan Heights.", "zh": "叙利亚人可能会企图对以色列发起进攻以达到打破戈兰高地未来僵局的目的。", "index": 3198}
{"en": "However, in the case of Kashmir, the asymmetric conflict currently fought by proxies and terrorist groups might not degenerate into all-out war precisely because India and Pakistan have mutual nuclear deterrence.Indeed, such asymmetric conflicts through proxies have become the new conventional way that states avoid the price of a general war.", "zh": "然而，在克什米尔问题上，现在由代理人和恐怖分子集团参与的不对称冲突可能不会退化为一场全面的战争，恰恰是由于印度和巴基斯坦都拥有相互的核威慑。 的确，这种通过代理人进行的不对称冲突已成为各个国家避免付出全面战争代价的新的常规方式。", "index": 3199}
{"en": "This changing nature of the battlefield essentially means that war as a conclusive event in an international conflict has become obsolete.", "zh": "战场不断变化的特点从本质上意味着战争作为国际冲突的决定性事件的理念已经过时了。", "index": 3200}
{"en": "The facile Clausewitzian wisdom that military action ultimately leads to a political solution is no longer convincing.", "zh": "克劳塞维茨式的 认为军事行动最终将导致政治解决的浅显理论已不再让人信服。", "index": 3201}
{"en": "“Victory” cannot bring peace, simply because there will always be a war after the war.", "zh": "“胜利”不能带来和平，就是因为战争还会接连不断地发生。", "index": 3202}
{"en": "Thus, for example, the conventional war in Kosovo lasted for two months, only to usher in a six-year asymmetric conflict.", "zh": "因此，例如，科索沃的常规战争持续了两个月，就开启了长达六年的非对称冲突的序幕。", "index": 3203}
{"en": "Likewise, America’s three-week “shock and awe” campaign in Iraq in 2003 ended in “victory,” but opened the gates of hell for occupiers and ordinary Iraqis alike.", "zh": "同样，美国2003年在伊拉克发动的为期三周的“震慑行动”战役以“胜利”告终，但却为占领者和普通的伊拉克人打开了地狱之门。", "index": 3204}
{"en": "And six months after the merciless pounding of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah is as strong as it was before.", "zh": "在经历了对黎巴嫩南部六个月的无情打击之后，真主党的实力并未被削弱。", "index": 3205}
{"en": "Nor does the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan six years after their overthrow now seen too far-fetched.", "zh": "被推翻的塔利班六年之后在阿富汗卷土重来似乎也不是空穴来风。", "index": 3206}
{"en": "It is during the war after the war that the occupier’s inferiority is revealed, with constant reinforcements increasing the number of targets for the insurgents far more quickly than the occupier can adapt to the changing battlefield.", "zh": "占领者的劣势在战后的战斗中暴露出来。 持续的强化部署为叛乱分子增加了目标，而占领军根本来不及适应战场形势的变化。", "index": 3207}
{"en": "The insurgents in Iraq, as the British admit, were able in just three years to cope with their enemies’ technological superiority in a way that the IRA in Northern Ireland was unable to do in 30 years.", "zh": "伊拉克的叛乱分子，正如英国人所承认的，仅用了三年的时间就能应对它们敌方的技术优势，而同样的应对能力北爱的爱尔兰共和军花了30年都没做到。", "index": 3208}
{"en": "The Iraq war and Israel’s wars with Hamas and Hezbollah show the limits of what military power can achieve, as well as vindicate diplomacy and conflict resolution.", "zh": "伊拉克战争和以色列与哈马斯及真主党的战争显示了武力的局限性，同时也证实了外交和冲突决议的作用。", "index": 3209}
{"en": "When it comes to tackling complex political and cultural conflicts, forging international and regional alliances around a legitimate objective is more important than sheer military capacity.", "zh": "在应对复杂的政治和文化冲突时，围绕一个合法的目的建立国际和地区性联盟比单靠武力更为重要。", "index": 3210}
{"en": "That said, it would be dangerously naïve to believe that the exercise of power and the capacity to intimidate are unnecessary.", "zh": "虽然如此，认为使用武力和威慑力并不必要的想法也是天真得危险。", "index": 3211}
{"en": "But the objectives of the use of force need to be linked to the recognition that in today’s asymmetric conflicts, victory is no longer achieved on the battlefield.", "zh": "但使用武力的目的需要与这样一个认识联系起来，即：在当今的非对称冲突中，胜利不再能够从战场上获得。", "index": 3212}
{"en": "Only better-informed foreign policies that can address the genuine anxieties of civilizations in crisis will yield more sustainable results.", "zh": "只有能应对处于危机中的文明的真正焦虑的，更明智的外交政策才能产生更具可持续性的成果。", "index": 3213}
{"en": "A Farewell to Nuclear Arms", "zh": "向核武器说再见", "index": 3214}
{"en": "MOSCOW – Twenty-five years ago this month, I sat across from Ronald Reagan in Reykjavik, Iceland to negotiate a deal that would have reduced, and could have ultimately eliminated by 2000, the fearsome arsenals of nuclear weapons held by the United States and the Soviet Union.", "zh": "莫斯科 — — 25年前的10月，我和罗纳德·里根在雷克雅未克面对面讨论如何削减并在2000年前彻底销毁苏俄双方恐怖核武库的事宜。", "index": 3215}
{"en": "For all our differences, Reagan and I shared the strong conviction that civilized countries should not make such barbaric weapons the linchpin of their security.", "zh": "尽管我俩存在诸多分歧，但均强烈同意文明社会不应该把如此恐怖的武器作为安全基石。", "index": 3216}
{"en": "Even though we failed to achieve our highest aspirations in Reykjavik, the summit was nonetheless, in the words of my former counterpart, “a major turning point in the quest for a safer and secure world.”", "zh": "尽管在雷克雅未克我们并未达成最高愿望，但用里根的话说，这次峰会是“探寻安全稳定世界的转折点。 ”", "index": 3217}
{"en": "The next few years may well determine if our shared dream of ridding the world of nuclear weapons will ever be realized.", "zh": "未来几年将决定我们让核武器从地球上消失的梦想是否能够实现。", "index": 3218}
{"en": "Critics present nuclear disarmament as unrealistic at best, and a risky utopian dream at worst.", "zh": "批评家指出，核裁军往好了说是不现实，往差了说纯属危险的乌托邦之梦。", "index": 3219}
{"en": "They point to the Cold War’s “long peace” as proof that nuclear deterrence is the only means of staving off a major war.", "zh": "他们指出，冷战的“长期和平”证明，核威慑是让大规模战争含而不发的唯一途径。", "index": 3220}
{"en": "As someone who has commanded these weapons, I strongly disagree.", "zh": "作为曾经弹指间就能动用核武器的人，我强烈反对这一观点。", "index": 3221}
{"en": "Nuclear deterrence has always been a hard and brittle guarantor of peace.", "zh": "核威慑永远只是外强中干的和平保障。", "index": 3222}
{"en": "By failing to propose a compelling plan for nuclear disarmament, the US, Russia, and the remaining nuclear powers are promoting through inaction a future in which nuclear weapons will inevitably be used.", "zh": "由于未能拿出完整的核裁军计划，美国、俄罗斯和其他有核国家正在用不作为把全世界引入不得不使用核武器的未来。", "index": 3223}
{"en": "That catastrophe must be forestalled.", "zh": "我们必须先下手为强，阻止这一灾难的发生。", "index": 3224}
{"en": "As I, along with George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, Sam Nunn, and others, pointed out five years ago, nuclear deterrence becomes less reliable and more risky as the number of nuclear-armed states increases.", "zh": "正如我和乔治·舒尔茨（George P. Shultz ） 、 威廉·佩里（William J. Perry ） 、 亨利·基辛格、山姆·那恩（Sam Nunn）等人五年前所指出的，随着有核国家数量的增加，核威慑变得越来越不可靠、越来越危险。", "index": 3225}
{"en": "Barring preemptive war (which has proven counterproductive) or effective sanctions (which have thus far proven insufficient), only sincere steps toward nuclear disarmament can furnish the mutual security needed to forge tough compromises on arms control and nonproliferation matters.", "zh": "只有真心实意拿出核裁军路线图才能制止先发制人的战争（已被证明只能适得其反）和有效制裁（从目前来看和“有效”还相去甚远 ） ， 带来共同安全感，达成关于核武器控制和核不扩散事务的艰难妥协。", "index": 3226}
{"en": "The trust and understanding built at Reykjavik paved the way for two historic treaties.", "zh": "在雷克雅未克建立起来的信任和理解为两大历史性条约铺平了道路。", "index": 3227}
{"en": "The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty destroyed the feared quick-strike missiles then threatening Europe’s peace.", "zh": "1987年的《中程核力量条约 》 （ INF）让欧洲不再担心快速打击导弹。", "index": 3228}
{"en": "And, in 1991, the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) cut the bloated US and Soviet nuclear arsenals by 80% over a decade.", "zh": "1991年签订的首个《战略武器削减条约 》 （ START1）在10年时间里让美苏的巨大核武库缩水了80 % 。", "index": 3229}
{"en": "But prospects for progress on arms control and nonproliferation are darkening in the absence of a credible push for nuclear disarmament.", "zh": "但由于缺乏可信的核裁军计划，核武器控制和核不扩散的前景令人堪忧。", "index": 3230}
{"en": "I learned during those two long days in Reykjavik that disarmament talks could be as constructive as they are arduous.", "zh": "我在雷克雅未克的漫长两天中了发现，核裁军谈判的成效固然甚大，但必须投入巨大的时间和精力。", "index": 3231}
{"en": "By linking an array of interrelated matters, Reagan and I built the trust and understanding needed to moderate a nuclear-arms race of which we had lost control.", "zh": "里根和我通过将一系列相关事件联系起来，成功建立了缓解大有失控之势的核竞赛所需要的信任和理解。", "index": 3232}
{"en": "In retrospect, the Cold War’s end heralded the coming of a messier arrangement of global power and persuasion.", "zh": "从历史来看，冷战的结束让全球实力和影响力局面更加混乱了。", "index": 3233}
{"en": "The nuclear powers should adhere to the requirements of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty and resume “good faith” negotiations for disarmament.", "zh": "有核国家必须遵守1968年《核不扩散条约》的要求，重新开始关于核裁军的“诚意”谈判。", "index": 3234}
{"en": "This would augment the diplomatic and moral capital available to diplomats as they strive to restrain nuclear proliferation in a world where more countries than ever have the wherewithal to construct a nuclear bomb.", "zh": "这样做能够增加外交谈判所需要的外交和道德资本，有助于在当前有实力建造核弹的国家数量前所未有地增多的情况下限制核扩散。", "index": 3235}
{"en": "Only a serious program of universal nuclear disarmament can provide the reassurance and the credibility needed to build a global consensus that nuclear deterrence is a dead doctrine.", "zh": "唯有真正的全球核裁军计划能够为“核威慑教条已死”的全球共识提供保障和信誉。", "index": 3236}
{"en": "We can no longer afford, politically or financially, the discriminatory nature of the current system of nuclear “haves” and “have-nots.”", "zh": "不管是政治上还是财政上，我们都不能让当前“有核”和“无核”体系的区别对待特征继续下去了。", "index": 3237}
{"en": "Reykjavik proved that boldness is rewarded.", "zh": "雷克雅未克峰会证明，果断能够带来回报。", "index": 3238}
{"en": "Conditions were far from favorable for a disarmament deal in 1986.", "zh": "就达成核裁军协议这件事而言，1986年我和里根所处的环境于今天根本不可同日而语。", "index": 3239}
{"en": "Before I became Soviet leader in 1985, relations between the Cold War superpowers had hit rock bottom.", "zh": "我于1985年成为苏联领导人时，美苏两大冷战超级大国之间的关系正处于历史冰点。", "index": 3240}
{"en": "Reagan and I were nonetheless able to create a reservoir of constructive spirit through constant outreach and face-to-face interaction.", "zh": "但是，里根和我仍然能够通过不断扩大的面对面互动为建设性协议创造空间。", "index": 3241}
{"en": "What seem to be lacking today are leaders with the boldness and vision to build the trust needed to reintroduce nuclear disarmament as the centerpiece of a peaceful global order.", "zh": "今日世界所缺乏的是具有远见卓识的果敢领导人，因此无法建立重新把核裁军置于和平的全球秩序之核心所需要的信任。", "index": 3242}
{"en": "Economic constraints and the Chernobyl disaster helped spur us to action.", "zh": "经济约束以及切尔诺贝利灾难曾经成为更进一步的刺激因素。", "index": 3243}
{"en": "Why has the Great Recession and the disastrous meltdown at Fukushima Daiichi in Japan not elicited a similar response today?", "zh": "如今，大衰退和福岛核电站事故为什么就不能造成类似的结果？", "index": 3244}
{"en": "A first step would be for the US finally to ratify the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).", "zh": "第一步是美国最终批准1996年《全面禁止核试验条约 》 （ CTBT ） 。", "index": 3245}
{"en": "President Barack Obama has endorsed this treaty as a vital instrument to discourage proliferation and avert nuclear war.", "zh": "奥巴马总统已表态支持这一对阻止核试验、预防核战争来说至关重要的工具的条约。", "index": 3246}
{"en": "It’s time for Obama to make good on commitments he made in Prague in 2009, take up Reagan’s mantle as Great Communicator, and persuade the US Senate to formalize America’s adherence to the CTBT.", "zh": "奥巴马是时候兑现2009年在布拉格许下的承诺了，继承里根“伟大沟通者”的衣钵，说服美国参议院正式批准美国加入CTBT。", "index": 3247}
{"en": "This would compel the remaining holdouts – China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan – to reconsider the CTBT as well.", "zh": "美国的入局能迫使其他拒绝加入CTBT的国家 — — 中国、埃及、印度、印尼、伊朗、以色列、朝鲜和巴基斯坦 — — 重新考虑自己的决定。", "index": 3248}
{"en": "That would bring us closer to a global ban on nuclear tests in any environment – the atmosphere, undersea, in outer space, or underground.", "zh": "���这又能让我们在迈向全面禁止全球核试验 — — 不管是地面、海底、外太空还是地下 — — 的道路上更进一步。", "index": 3249}
{"en": "A second necessary step is for the US and Russia to follow up on the New START agreement and begin deeper weapons cuts, especially tactical and reserve weapons, which serve no purpose, waste funds, and threaten security.", "zh": "第二大必须步骤是美俄签署新的战略核武器削减条约（New START ） ， 深入落实核武器的销毁工作，特别是战术核武器和储备核武器，它们根本起不到什么作用，只能浪费资金、威胁安全。", "index": 3250}
{"en": "This step must be related to limits on missile defense, one of the key issues that undermined the Reykjavik summit.", "zh": "这一步骤必须与导弹防御限制 — — 雷克雅未克峰会就是败在它手上 — — 联系起来。", "index": 3251}
{"en": "A fissile material cut-off treaty (FMCT), long stalled in multilateral talks in Geneva, and a successful second Nuclear Security Summit next year in Seoul, will help secure dangerous nuclear materials.", "zh": "签订一份禁止生产核裂变材料条约（FMCT，自日内瓦多边谈判以来一直停滞不前）以及明年首尔成功举行和安全峰会将有助于叫停危险核原料的生产。", "index": 3252}
{"en": "This will also require that the 2002 Global Partnership, dedicated to securing and eliminating all weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical, and biological – is renewed and expanded when it convenes next year in the US.", "zh": "这也要求明年在美国举行的致力于叫停和销毁所有大规模杀伤性武器（核武器、化学武器和生物武器）的2002年全球伙伴（Global Partnership）计划重新启动并扩大规模。", "index": 3253}
{"en": "Our world remains too militarized.", "zh": "世界仍然处在过度军事化的状态。", "index": 3254}
{"en": "In today’s economic climate, nuclear weapons have become loathsome money pits.", "zh": "在当今的经济气候中，核武器已成为令人厌恶的资金黑洞。", "index": 3255}
{"en": "If, as seems likely, economic troubles continue, the US, Russia, and other nuclear powers should seize the moment to launch multilateral arms reductions through new or existing channels such as the UN Conference on Disarmament.", "zh": "照目前来看，如果经济困境继续下去，美国、俄罗斯和其他有核国家应该抓住机会，通过联合国核裁军会议等已有或新启渠道推出多边核武器削减计划。", "index": 3256}
{"en": "These deliberations would yield greater security for less money.", "zh": "这样的动议能够以更低的经济代价带来更大的安全。", "index": 3257}
{"en": "But the buildup of conventional military forces – driven in large part by the enormous military might deployed globally by the US – must be addressed as well.", "zh": "但常规军事力量的建设 — — 大部分是因为美军的全球部署所致 — — 也应该有所抑制。", "index": 3258}
{"en": "As we engage in furthering our Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) agreement, we should seriously consider reducing the burden of military budgets and forces globally.", "zh": "既然我们都参与了深化欧洲常规力量（CFE）安排，我们就应该认真考虑削减全球军事预算和军事力量负担。", "index": 3259}
{"en": "US President John F. Kennedy once warned that “every man, woman, and child lives under a nuclear sword of Damocles, hanging by the slenderest of threads, capable of being cut at any moment.”", "zh": "美国总统肯尼迪曾警告“每个人，不管男人、女人还是儿童，都生活在核达摩克利斯之剑之下，千钧之重系于一发，随时随地都有可能发断剑落。", "index": 3260}
{"en": "For more than 50 years, humanity has warily eyed that lethal pendulum while statesmen debated how to mend its fraying cords.", "zh": "”50多年来，人类时时刻刻都在战战兢兢地看着性命之所系的发丝，而政客却在为如何修复发丝的磨损而吵个不可开交。", "index": 3261}
{"en": "The example of Reykjavik should remind us that palliative measures are not enough.", "zh": "雷克雅未克的教训表明，姑息迁就是解决不了问题的。", "index": 3262}
{"en": "Our efforts 25 years ago can be vindicated only when the Bomb ends up beside the slave trader’s manacles and the Great War’s mustard gas in the museum of bygone savagery.", "zh": "只有当核弹被锁进陈列人类野蛮历史的博物馆，与奴隶贸易者的镣铐和一战的芥子气为伍时，我们在25年前的努力才能够被证明没有白费。", "index": 3263}
{"en": "Affirmative Action for Europe", "zh": "平权欧洲", "index": 3264}
{"en": "The violence in France, fueled by staggering unemployment and ruthless policing, reflects the utter failure of the French model of social integration.", "zh": "高居不下的失业率和鲁莽的警察执法为法国的暴力冲突火上浇油。 这反映了社会一体化法国模式的彻底失败。", "index": 3265}
{"en": "But violence elsewhere in Europe, such as the London bombings of July and the brutal murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh on the streets of Amsterdam in November 2004, had already made Europe’s failure to integrate its minorities painfully clear.", "zh": "然而，发生在欧洲其它地方的暴力，例如7月的伦敦爆炸和2004年11月荷兰电影制作人在阿姆斯特丹街头被残忍地谋杀，已经用痛苦的明了方式见证了欧洲在少数族裔融合上的失败。", "index": 3266}
{"en": "As the riots in France fade, French politicians are agonizing about how to proceed.", "zh": "随着暴乱在法国的逐渐平息，法国的政治家们又开始为何去何从而苦恼。", "index": 3267}
{"en": "Forty years ago, after legal segregation of blacks and whites formally ended in America, the United States was confronted by similar problems.", "zh": "40年前，当对黑人和白人在法律上的隔离制度正式终结后，美国也面临过类似的问题。", "index": 3268}
{"en": "America’s response shows, however, that integration cannot be viewed as a one-way street.", "zh": "然而，美国的应对表明民族融合不能被看作是一条单行道。", "index": 3269}
{"en": "In addition to imposing demands and constraints on minorities to join the mainstream, society must be willing to demand of itself that it make room for all its citizens.", "zh": "除了对少数族裔加入主流社会实行法律上的保障外，社会也必须自愿为其所有的公民腾出空间。", "index": 3270}
{"en": "As a potential model to be followed, Europe should look at the so-called “affirmative action” policies that America enacted to provide opportunities to blacks.", "zh": "作为一种可资效仿的模式，欧洲应该仔细考察美国为给黑人提供机会而实施的所谓“平权(affirmative action ) ” 政策。", "index": 3271}
{"en": "Affirmative action, or “positive discrimination,” as some have called these policies, began with university admissions.", "zh": "平权，或又被称作“积极差别待遇（positive discrimination ） ” ，开始于大学录取。", "index": 3272}
{"en": "But, in the early 1970’s, President Richard M. Nixon expanded the scope of affirmative action.", "zh": "但是，在1970年代早期，尼克松总统扩大了平权的范围。", "index": 3273}
{"en": "As a result, ethnicity began to be weighed as a positive factor not only in university admissions, but also in public procurement decisions, credit facilities for small enterprises, and government hiring.", "zh": "其结果是种族划分开始被接受成为一种积极的因素。 这不仅表现在大学录取过程中，也被贯彻到了公共采购决策、对小型企业的信贷和政府雇用等方面。", "index": 3274}
{"en": "The rational for affirmative action in those early years was the fact that, after a long history of systemic injustice, merely outlawing discrimination based on race or gender would not ensure equal opportunity for all.", "zh": "早期平权背后的理由是：经过长期系统性的不公正，仅仅依靠将种族和性别歧视非法化还并不足以保证所有人的机会平等。", "index": 3275}
{"en": "Such programs are often viewed as contradicting a basic American value, namely that admissions, lending, and hiring decisions should be based on the merits of the individual, not group distinctions.", "zh": "这些政策经常被认为是有悖于基本的美国价值观，即：录取、放贷和雇用的决策应该基于个人的成绩表现，而不是种族的划分。", "index": 3276}
{"en": "But they remain in existence three decades later.", "zh": "但三十年后，这些政策仍然存在。", "index": 3277}
{"en": "Indeed, leading American companies, like General Motors, General Electric, and Walmart, have created affirmative action programs for hiring and selecting suppliers at their own initiative.", "zh": "的确，如通用汽车、通用电气和沃尔玛等领导性的美国公司都已创立了自身在人员雇用和供货商选择方面的平权政策。", "index": 3278}
{"en": "Similarly, anchormen and anchorwomen from all ethnic backgrounds populate American television news programs.", "zh": "同样，美国的电视新闻节目中有很多来自各种族裔背景的男女主播。", "index": 3279}
{"en": "In France, by contrast, the appointment of the black anchorwoman Audrey Pulvar was big news on its own, because most of her colleagues in France are white.", "zh": "相比之下，在法国，黑人女主播奥黛丽•布尔瓦的任命本身就是一条大新闻，因为她的大多数法国同事都是白人。", "index": 3280}
{"en": "Affirmative action in the US has been effective in creating a large African-American middle class.", "zh": "美国的平权在建立一个庞大的非洲裔美国人中产阶级方面卓有成效。", "index": 3281}
{"en": "The percentage of black households earning over $50,000 a year (adjusted for inflation) has more than tripled over the last four decades, from 9.1% in 1967 to 27.8% in 2001.", "zh": "在过去的40年里，年收入超过5万美金（计入通胀因素）的黑人家庭的百分比增长了三倍多，从1967年的9.1%增加到2001年的27.8 % 。", "index": 3282}
{"en": "Indeed, in the US, more people of color and women hold top jobs in the public and private sector than anywhere else in the world.", "zh": "的确，在美国的公私领域身居高位的有色人种和女性数量超过了世界上任何其它地方。", "index": 3283}
{"en": "The fact that a large black underclass remains – something the recent floods in New Orleans revealed in a horrifically dramatic way – is mainly the result of failing school systems.", "zh": "而庞大的黑人下层阶级仍然存在的事实—被最近的新奥尔良洪水以惊人的戏剧性方式暴露出来—主要是每况愈下的学校体系造成的。", "index": 3284}
{"en": "Affirmative action programs, of course, have always been vulnerable to attack by those who can’t benefit from them.", "zh": "当然，平权政策从来就是那些不能从中获益的人的攻击目标。", "index": 3285}
{"en": "In 2003, a white student asked the US Supreme Court to declare that the use of race in the University of Michigan’s admission policies violated the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment of the US Constitution.", "zh": "在2003年，一位白人学生要求美国最高法院宣布密歇根大学在招生政策中使用种族标准违反了美国宪法第十四条修正案中的《平等保护条款 》 。", "index": 3286}
{"en": "The Supreme Court, however, ruled that the program was constitutional, citing a “compelling state interest” in racial diversity.", "zh": "但最高法院裁决认为该政策符合宪法精神，并引用了种族多样性中的“强制性国家利益”为理由。", "index": 3287}
{"en": "“Effective participation by members of all racial and ethnic groups in the civil life of our nation,” the court said, “is essential if the dream of one nation, indivisible, is to be realized.”", "zh": "判决中说 ： “ 所有种族和民族集团的成员有效地参与我们国家的公民生活，对于一个国家不可分割的梦想的实现至关重要。 ”", "index": 3288}
{"en": "In reaching its decision, the Supreme Court took into account a legal brief submitted by 60 major American businesses, led by General Motors, asking that affirmative action be upheld.", "zh": "在达成该判决的过程中，最高法院还认真参考了一份由通用汽车为首的60家美国大公司呈交的法律纲要。 该文件要求维持平权政策。", "index": 3289}
{"en": "They argued that the skills needed in today’s global marketplace can only be developed through exposure to a wide diversity of people.", "zh": "这些公司认为，当今全球市场所需的技能只有通过族裔多样性的沟通才能获得。", "index": 3290}
{"en": "Retired military officers and commanders told the court that affirmative action was essential to maintaining an integrated officer corps.", "zh": "退伍的军官和指挥官告诉法院平权对于保持军官队伍的完整性���关重要。", "index": 3291}
{"en": "What America’s affirmative action programs may not do is set quotas for minorities, as this prevents competition between different groups.", "zh": "美国的平权政策不可能做的就是对少数族裔设定配额，因为这会妨碍不同族裔集团之间的竞争。", "index": 3292}
{"en": "But, in comparing groups, it is permitted to use an individual’s status as member of an under-represented minority in his or her favor.", "zh": "但在进行不同族群的比较时，该政策允许将个体的少数族群成员身份作为一项对个人有利的条件。", "index": 3293}
{"en": "As a result, a university may select a black student with a satisfactory score on the admissions test, even if there is a white student with a better score.", "zh": "其结果是，即使是另一个白人学生的成绩更高，大学仍可能录用一个在入学考试中成绩合格的黑人学生。", "index": 3294}
{"en": "From the current French viewpoint, however, laws and regulations based on ethnicity are regarded as an unwelcome encroachment on the Republican ideal.", "zh": "然而，从目前的法国观点来看，基于种族的法律和法规被认为是不受欢迎的，对共和理想的侵犯。", "index": 3295}
{"en": "French President Jacques Chirac vehemently opposes quotas for immigrants, out of fear that such a policy would stigmatize groups.", "zh": "法国总统希拉克激烈反对移民配额，担心这样的政策会成为种族烙印。", "index": 3296}
{"en": "And French businesses don’t see it as their role to solve the problems of the suburbs.", "zh": "而法国的公司并不认为解决郊区的问题是他们的责任。", "index": 3297}
{"en": "Moreover, French Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy hasn’t done much except hand out some special grants to the smartest immigrants from the suburbs.", "zh": "另外，法国内政部长Nicolas Sarkozy除了给来自郊区的最聪明的移民颁发一些特殊津贴以外也无所建树。", "index": 3298}
{"en": "France does have affirmative action programs, but they address poverty, not ethnicity.", "zh": "法国也有平权政策，但都是针对贫困问题，而不是族群问题。", "index": 3299}
{"en": "If European politicians are serious about preventing a schism between population groups, affirmative action is essential – not only at the workplace, but also for small business loans, home loans, public procurement, and school admissions.", "zh": "如果欧洲的政治家们认真地想要防止人口族群的分裂，那幺平权政策就至关重要—这不仅要体现在职场，还要体现在小额商业贷款、房屋贷款、公共采购和学校招生等方面。", "index": 3300}
{"en": "Tony Blair, who in July was faced with the shortcomings of integration in the UK, should take advantage of the country’s current presidency of the European Union to make affirmative action programs the top priority at next month’s summit of European government leaders in Brussels.", "zh": "在7月直面了英国民族融合中的缺陷的托尼•布莱尔，应该利用英国作为目前欧盟轮值主席国的机会，将平权政策作为下月将在布鲁塞尔举行的欧洲政府首脑峰会的首要议题。", "index": 3301}
{"en": "Affordable Green Energy", "zh": "我们所负担得起的绿色能源", "index": 3302}
{"en": "COPENHAGEN – Public skepticism about global warming may be growing, but the scientific consensus is as solid as ever: man-made climate change is real, and we ignore it at our peril.", "zh": "发自哥本哈根 — — 虽然公众对全球变暖的质疑之声日益滋长，但科学界对于该现象也达成了空前一致的共识：人为造成的气候变化时确实存在，而我们却忽视了它所造成的风险。", "index": 3303}
{"en": "But if that issue is settled (and it should be), there is an equally large and important question that remains wide open: what should we do about it?", "zh": "但如果这个问题能得到（也应该得到）解决的话，那么就有一个同样宏大而且重要的问题亟待解答：究竟该用什么方法解决？", "index": 3304}
{"en": "One prescription that is bandied about with increasing frequency certainly sounds sensible: the world should drastically cut the amount of greenhouse gases that it pumps into the atmosphere each day.", "zh": "对此有一种解决方案正日渐流行，而且听上去似乎也合情合理，那就是全世界必须大幅削减每天的温室气体排放量。", "index": 3305}
{"en": "Specifically, we are told, the goal should be a 50% reduction in global carbon-dioxide emissions by the middle of the century.", "zh": "具体来说，目标就是在本世纪中期将全球二氧化碳排放量减少50 % 。", "index": 3306}
{"en": "Even its backers concede that achieving this target won’t be easy – and they are right.", "zh": "而即便是该方案的支持者也自知达到这个目标非常不易 — — 他们是对的。", "index": 3307}
{"en": "In fact, they are so right that they are wrong.", "zh": "事实上，正是他们的正确导致了自身的错误。", "index": 3308}
{"en": "Allow me to explain.", "zh": "且听我细细道来：", "index": 3309}
{"en": "Our dependency on carbon-emitting fuels is more than enormous. It is overwhelming.", "zh": "如今，我们对那些排放二氧化碳的燃料的依赖何止是巨大，简直是压倒性的，太阳能，风能以及其他热炒的绿色能源目前仅占全球能源消费的0.6 % 。", "index": 3310}
{"en": "For all the talk about solar, wind, and other hyped green-energy sources, they make up only 0.6% of global energy consumption. Renewable energy overwhelmingly comes from often-unsustainable burning of wood and biomass by people in the Third World.", "zh": "绝大多数可再生能源都来自于第三世界人民燃烧木柴或者其他生物燃料，而且往往是不可持续地滥用。", "index": 3311}
{"en": "Fossil fuels account for more than four-fifths of the world’s energy diet.", "zh": "而化石燃料则占据了全世界能源总消耗量的4/5强。", "index": 3312}
{"en": "So, in order to cut global carbon emissions in half by the middle of the century, we would obviously have to start getting a lot more of our energy from sources that don’t emit carbon.", "zh": "因此如果要实现在本世纪中期将全球碳排放量减半的话，很显然，我们必须得从那些不排放碳的资源中获取更多的能源。", "index": 3313}
{"en": "Can we do this?", "zh": "我们能做到这一点吗？", "index": 3314}
{"en": "According to the International Energy Agency, here’s what it would take to achieve the goal of cutting emissions by 50% between now and mid-century:", "zh": "根据国际能源署的研究，要在2050年时达到50%的碳排放削减，我们必须做到以下几点：", "index": 3315}
{"en": "Now consider this: this list does not describe what we would have to build between now and 2050, but what we would have to build each and every year until then!", "zh": "现在再考虑一下：上面所列的可不是我们需要在未来40年间总共所需的装置，而是这40年间每年都需要建设的装置数量！", "index": 3316}
{"en": "One more thing: even if we managed to do all this (which we obviously cannot), the impact on global temperatures would be hardly noticeable by 2050.", "zh": "还有一点：即便我们拼死拼活把这些东西都建起来了（很显然，这是不可能的 ） ， 但到了2050年时，这一切努力对全球气温的影响几乎微乎其微。", "index": 3317}
{"en": "According to the best-known climate-economic model, this vast undertaking would likely wind up reducing global temperatures by just one-tenth of one degree centigrade (one-fifth of one degree Fahrenheit), while holding back sea-level rises by only one centimeter (less than half an inch).", "zh": "照最著名的气候-经济模型推算，这场大规模建设最终将把全球气温降低0.1摄氏度（约为0.2华氏度 ） ， 而海平面升高的幅度也只会减少1厘米（不到半英寸 ） 。", "index": 3318}
{"en": "That’s not a lot of bang for the buck.", "zh": "这可不是一笔划算的买卖。", "index": 3319}
{"en": "Indeed, the projected costs of this approach – some $5 trillion annually by mid-century – are so much greater than its likely benefits that it makes no sense to call it a solution at all.", "zh": "实际上，这一套方案的预计成本 — — 大概5万亿美元一年 — — 相比其取得的效果来说是如此庞大，将其称之为“解决方案”简直就有点荒谬了。", "index": 3320}
{"en": "Fortunately, there is a better, smarter way to deal with global warming.", "zh": "幸运的是，我们还有一种更好，更明智的方法来应对全球变暖问题。", "index": 3321}
{"en": "What if, instead of spending trillions of dollars trying to build an impossible number of power plants – or, more likely, condemning billions of people around the world to continued poverty by trying to make carbon-emitting fuels too expensive to use – we devoted ourselves to making green energy cheaper?", "zh": "与其花费数千亿美元兴建无数的发电站 — — 或者刻意提高碳排放燃料的费用，不惜令全球数十亿人生活在贫困当中 — — 不如让我们一起努力，令绿色能源变得更加廉价。", "index": 3322}
{"en": "Right now, solar panels are so expensive – about 10 times more than fossil fuels in terms of cost per unit of energy output – that only well-heeled, well-meaning (and, usually, well-subsidized) Westerners can afford to install them.", "zh": "目前，太阳能电池板非常昂贵 — — 其能源输出成本相当于化石燃料的10倍之多 — — 只有那些富有而热心（而且往往手握大把补贴）的西方人才能用得起。", "index": 3323}
{"en": "But think where we’d be if we could improve the efficiency of solar cells by a factor of ten – in other words, if we could make them cheaper than fossil fuels.", "zh": "但试想，如果我们能把太阳能电池的效率提高十倍 — — 换言之，如果我��能令其比化石燃料更便宜。", "index": 3324}
{"en": "We wouldn’t have to force (or subsidize) anyone to stop burning coal and oil.", "zh": "那时我们根本不需要强迫（或补贴）人们停用化石燃料。", "index": 3325}
{"en": "Everyone, including the Chinese and the Indians, would shift to the cheaper and cleaner alternatives – and global emission targets would automatically be met.", "zh": "世界上的每个人，包括中国和印度人民，会转向这种更廉价且清洁的替代方案 — — 而全球减排目标也自动实现了。", "index": 3326}
{"en": "Can we achieve this technological miracle over the next 20 to 40 years?", "zh": "那么我们究竟能不能在未来20至40年间实现这一科技奇迹呢？", "index": 3327}
{"en": "In a word, yes.", "zh": "总而言之，可以！", "index": 3328}
{"en": "The price of solar energy has been dropping steadily for 30 years – by about 50% every decade – and we could likely accelerate that decline further with sufficiently large investments in research and development.", "zh": "太阳能的价格将在未来30年内稳步下降 — — 大概每10年下降50 % — —而如果有足够大量的资金投入研究的话，我们可以进一步加快下降的速度。", "index": 3329}
{"en": "How large?", "zh": "那么究竟要多“大量”的资金？", "index": 3330}
{"en": "If we were willing to devote just 0.2% of global GDP (roughly $100 billion a year) to green-energy R&D, I believe that we could bring about game-changing breakthroughs not just for solar power, but also for a wide variety of other alternative-energy technologies.", "zh": "只要投入全球年度GDP的0.2 % （ 大概1000亿美元）投入到研究当中，相信就能取得开创性的突破，而且不仅限于太阳能领域，其他各类可替代能源技术都将从中受益。", "index": 3331}
{"en": "This belief in the potential of technological progress strikes some climate activists as naïve or even delusional.", "zh": "我这种对技术进步潜力的信心被某些气候活动分子认为是痴心妄想。", "index": 3332}
{"en": "But is it really?", "zh": "这是真的吗？", "index": 3333}
{"en": "Consider one of the miracles of the modern age – the personal computer.", "zh": "想想当今世界的其中一个奇迹 — — 个人电脑。", "index": 3334}
{"en": "These devices didn’t become household items because governments subsidized purchases or forced up the price of typewriters and slide rules.", "zh": "由于政府补贴采购并强迫提高打字机和计算尺的价格，这些设备起初根本无缘进入普通家庭。", "index": 3335}
{"en": "No, what happened is that, largely as a result of the space race, the United States government poured lots of money into R&D for solid-state physics and electronics engineering. The resulting breakthroughs not only got Neil Armstrong to the moon in 1969, but also made it possible for Apple to introduce the first Mac in 1976 and IBM to debut the first PC five years later.", "zh": "而事实上，由于太空竞赛的缘故，美国政府投入巨资到固态物理和电子工程领域，结果不仅仅是尼尔·阿姆斯特朗1969年登月成功，同时还催生了苹果公司于1976年推出的第一台苹果电脑，以及5年之后IBM个人电脑的诞生。", "index": 3336}
{"en": "We can do the same for clean energy.", "zh": "这是可供洁净能源借鉴的成功先例。", "index": 3337}
{"en": "Forget about subsidizing inefficient technologies or making fossil fuels too expensive to use. Instead, let’s fund the basic research that will make green energy too cheap and easy to resist.", "zh": "不要再试图补贴低效率的技术或者尝试提高化石能源的价格，反过来，让我们去资助那些有助于令绿色能源更廉价，更让人难以抗拒的基础研究吧！", "index": 3338}
{"en": "Afghanistan Is Lost Without Better Governance", "zh": "没有更好的统治，阿富汗前途黯淡", "index": 3339}
{"en": "NEW YORK – President Obama's recent trip to Afghanistan highlighted the growing American and international perception that without better governance Afghanistan will fail.", "zh": "纽约 — —", "index": 3340}
{"en": "As President Obama apparently made clear in his late night meeting with President Hamid Karzai, no matter what other progress is made, America and its allies cannot succeed in Afghanistan unless the Afghan government succeeds—and that government is moving in the wrong direction.", "zh": "今年，在阿富汗问题上，美国阿富汗及北约盟友都取得不错的进展。", "index": 3341}
{"en": "Until this changes, all other efforts will ultimately be in vain and current levels of international engagement with Afghanistan will become unjustifiable.", "zh": "正在进行的玛利亚行动，逮捕了位于巴基斯坦的巴拉达尔和两名塔利班“影子内阁部长 ” ； 近期持续打击亲塔利班的哈卡尼组织等行动，都是在正确的方向上取得的胜利。", "index": 3342}
{"en": "The United States and its Afghan and NATO allies have demonstrated unmistakable progress in Afghanistan this year.", "zh": "但不管在其他方面的进展如何，只有阿富汗政府有效运作，美国及其盟友才能谈得上胜利 — — 但现在，阿富汗政府正在朝着错误的方向前行。", "index": 3343}
{"en": "The ongoing Marja campaign, the arrest of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and two Taliban \"shadow governors\" in Pakistan, and the recent drone strike hitting top leaders of the Al Qaeda-affiliated Haqqani network are all clear steps in the right direction.", "zh": "只有改变方向性错误，不然所有一切的努力都是白费，国际社会的参与也就没了合法性。", "index": 3344}
{"en": "President Obama has defined America's goals in Afghanistan as denying Al Qaeda a safe haven, reversing the Taliban's momentum, and helping the country's security forces and government \"take lead responsibility for Afghanistan’s future.\"", "zh": "美国总统奥巴马将美国在阿富汗的目标设定为：击垮基地组织老巢，阻击塔利班和帮助阿国建立安全部队及有效政府，以 “担负起阿富汗未来的领导责任。", "index": 3345}
{"en": "To this end, Obama launched an 18-month military \"surge\" with the backing of other NATO member countries, to be followed by the beginning of withdrawal.", "zh": "”为此，在北约盟友的协助下，奥巴马展开了在正式撤军之前为期 18 个月的军事行动。", "index": 3346}
{"en": "To achieve these goals in such a short time, NATO and its Afghan partners must overcome three enormous obstacles.", "zh": "为了在短时间内达到上述目标，北约及其阿富汗盟友必须克服三大障碍。", "index": 3347}
{"en": "First, they must fight far more successfully against the Taliban to create space for rebuilding and possible negotiation.", "zh": "首先，他们必须在对塔利班的战争中取得巨大胜利，以创造重建国家及和谈的可能。", "index": 3348}
{"en": "Second, they must convince Pakistan to begin actively opposing the Afghan Taliban and denying them the safe haven and support they currently receive in Pakistan.", "zh": "第二，他们必须说服巴基斯坦积极加入反对阿富汗塔利班的行动，消除塔利班在巴的老巢。", "index": 3349}
{"en": "Third, they must support the emergence of a legitimate Afghan government that is not, unlike the current government, seen as corrupt and ineffectual by its citizens.", "zh": "第三，他们必须支持成立阿富汗合法政府，而不是现任那个腐败低效的政权。", "index": 3350}
{"en": "Because the NATO strategy's success requires significant progress on each of these fronts, even the current preliminary signs of military progress and in Pakistan's relations with the Afghan Taliban will be for naught if Afghanistan's government cannot establish its legitimacy domestically.", "zh": "北约战略成功来自于全方面的成功。 如果阿富汗无法建立合法政府，那么，现在的军事胜利和巴基斯坦对阿塔利班的打击都会毁于一旦。", "index": 3351}
{"en": "Recent efforts by President Hamid Karzai’s administration to limit its public accountability demonstrate that the Afghan government in its current form lacks either the capacity or the willingness to do so.", "zh": "近期对卡尔扎伊政府的不信任显示出目前的政权缺乏能力和意愿来管理国家。", "index": 3352}
{"en": "For at least a year prior to the August 2009 elections, NATO officials recognized that ordinary Afghans' disgust with their government's massive corruption was among the Taliban's most effective recruitment tools.", "zh": "早在 2009 年 8 月的大选之际，北约官员就发现，普通阿富汗民众对政府大规模腐败感到厌恶，这也是塔利班征兵的一个最有效借口。", "index": 3353}
{"en": "At that time, these officials argued that the elections would give Afghanistan’s leaders a clear mandate for reform.", "zh": "当时，他们原指望通过大选来帮助阿富汗领导人实施改革。", "index": 3354}
{"en": "The deeply discredited elections put an end to those hopes.", "zh": "随后充满舞弊的大选让所有人都寒了心。", "index": 3355}
{"en": "The original flaw of the 2009 elections was structural. There was no voter list, and so it was nearly impossible to prevent ballot-stuffing.", "zh": "2009 年大选的失败是全面的，没有选民名单的选举很难阻止舞弊发生。", "index": 3356}
{"en": "The body empowered to conduct the vote, the Independent Election Commission, was run by commissioners all appointed by and partial to one candidate, Karzai.", "zh": "作为选举机构的独立选举委员会的委员，很大程度上都由卡尔扎伊任命。", "index": 3357}
{"en": "One institution, the Electoral Complaints Commission—a hybrid Afghan-international oversight body with a majority vote controlled by United Nations-appointed commissioners—retained its credibility throughout the process.", "zh": "由阿富汗和国际社会共同组成的选举监督委员会中大部分委员由联合国任命 — — 在选举过程中保持一定的威信。", "index": 3358}
{"en": "Only the presence of the ECC, particularly its international commissioners, and the hope that it would ensure at least some fairness into the process prevented the electoral controversy from erupting into open conflict.", "zh": "选举监督委员会的存在保证了选举过程上某种程度的公平，阻止选民潜在的公开冲突。", "index": 3359}
{"en": "As flawed as the elections were and as contentious as the outcome ultimately was, the situation would have been far worse without the ECC.", "zh": "虽然整个选举漏洞百出，但如果没有监督委员会，情况会更加糟糕。", "index": 3360}
{"en": "After the election, many hoped that Karzai would recognize the need to build a more accountable government to help secure both Afghanistan's future and the future of international military and financial support.", "zh": "大选之后，许多人希望卡尔扎伊能建立一个值得信任政府，确保阿富汗的未来和后期维和部队介入及国际援助的顺利展开。", "index": 3361}
{"en": "In a high-profile speech in London this past January, Karzai pledged to make progress in fighting corruption and promoting government accountability.", "zh": "今年 1 月，卡尔扎伊在伦敦高调讲演，承诺在反腐和推动政府诚信问题上作出努力。", "index": 3362}
{"en": "Instead, the opposite appears to be happening.", "zh": "但事实却是恰恰相反。", "index": 3363}
{"en": "Since his London speech, Karzai has actively opposed efforts to attack official corruption, sought to appoint warlords to his cabinet, failed to promote civil society, and weakened processes aimed at increasing the representation of women in parliament.", "zh": "自从伦敦讲话之后，卡尔扎伊积极反对反腐行动，把军阀引入内阁中，无法推动公民社会的建设，反对增加妇女在议会中比例的活动。", "index": 3364}
{"en": "To make matters worse, Karzai issued a decree on February 13 permitting him to appoint all of the ECC's members, a measure clearly designed to strengthen the patronage system and weaken opposition movements’ prospects in future elections and a strong demonstration that his administration is not serious about establishing greater government accountability.", "zh": "更有甚者， 2 月 13 日，卡尔扎伊颁布法令，让自己任命所有选举监督委员会成员。 这显然是为了强化裙带关系，以便在未来的选举中打压反对势力，这清楚地表明他对提高政府诚信视为儿戏。", "index": 3365}
{"en": "NATO and the international community must do everything possible to foster accountable government at all levels in Afghanistan.", "zh": "北约和国际社会必须行动起来，竭力建立一个全方位的可信政府。", "index": 3366}
{"en": "Although Afghanistan's government does not need to be fully centralized, Afghanistan cannot succeed if the central government fails.", "zh": "虽然阿富汗政府不能完全集权，不过，如果中央政府失灵，人民也就不会幸福。", "index": 3367}
{"en": "For this reason, unless the Karzai government changes course there is no justification for NATO member countries to risk the lives of their soldiers and commit other valuable resources to the struggle in Afghanistan if the Afghan government’s corruption and legitimacy deficit make current progress unsustainable and achievement of NATO’s goals impossible.", "zh": "所以，除非卡尔扎伊作出改变，积极反腐，否则，北约盟国没有必要让自己的士兵冒险和向阿提高宝贵的资源。", "index": 3368}
{"en": "Karzai is free to lead his country as he pleases, but America and its allies cannot and should not maintain their current levels of commitment unless his government can establish itself as a viable partner.", "zh": "卡尔扎伊可以按照自己的意愿领导国家，不过，除非现任政府能成为有效的合作伙伴，否则美国及其盟友不能，也不应该保持自己的承诺。", "index": 3369}
{"en": "The 18-month clock is ticking.", "zh": "18 个月最后期限的倒计时已经开始。", "index": 3370}
{"en": "No Exit from Afghanistan", "zh": "阿富汗没有出路", "index": 3371}
{"en": "NEW DELHI – Despite frequent turmoil and repeated invasions, Afghanistan has remained virtually unchanged for centuries.", "zh": "新德里—尽管动乱频仍并一再被侵略，但几百年来阿富汗几乎没有任何变化。", "index": 3372}
{"en": "Nearly 120 years ago, Winston Churchill described the futility of warfare in the region: “Financially it is ruinous.", "zh": "近120年前，温斯顿·丘吉尔这样描述在该地区发动战争的无用性 ： “ 财政上这是灾难。", "index": 3373}
{"en": "Morally it is wicked.", "zh": "道德上这是邪恶。", "index": 3374}
{"en": "Militarily it is an open question, and politically it is a blunder.”", "zh": "军事上这不确定。 政治上这是大错。", "index": 3375}
{"en": "Churchill’s assessment undoubtedly rings true for many United States and NATO officials today, as they attempt to coordinate an exit from America’s longest overseas combat commitment in history.", "zh": "”毫无疑问，丘吉尔的评价对当今许多美国和北约官员来说是正确的警钟 — — 他们正在组织从美国为时最长的海外战斗中联合撤军。", "index": 3376}
{"en": "While the war in Afghanistan may have resulted in fewer American deaths and injuries than previous US wars, the human cost remains substantial – especially after factoring in Afghan deaths and injuries.", "zh": "阿富汗战争造成美军伤亡人数比前几场战争都要少，但人力成本仍然非常巨大 — — 特别是在考虑到阿富汗方面的伤亡后。", "index": 3377}
{"en": "Moreover, trillions of dollars have been wasted, with the few positive effects of the US-led military intervention already beginning to fade, and its many adverse consequences continuing to destabilize the region.", "zh": "此外，数万亿美元被浪费，美国领导的军事干预所造成的少得可怜的积极效果已开始消失，副作用倒是在继续动摇该地区。", "index": 3378}
{"en": "US President Barack Obama is now trying to negotiate a new “status of forces” agreement with the Afghan government in order to establish how many US troops will remain in Afghanistan and the terms of their deployment.", "zh": "如今，美国总统奥巴马在试图与阿富汗政府谈判新的“驻军地位”协议，以确定多少美军将留驻阿富汗以及他们的部署问题。", "index": 3379}
{"en": "But the reality is that the US is scuttling from a conflict that it has lost, just as it did in Vietnam almost 40 years ago, leaving the beleaguered population to its own devices.", "zh": "但现实是美国从冲突中败北遁走，一如近40年前的越南，任其走后被包围的群众自生自灭。", "index": 3380}
{"en": "Rather than admit defeat, US officials are resorting to diversionary rhetoric.", "zh": "美国官员不承认失败，反而再次祭出了转移注意力的把戏。", "index": 3381}
{"en": "For example, speaking recently in New Delhi, Secretary of State John Kerry said that the key to stabilizing Afghanistan is to build a “new silk road” connecting it with central Asia – a cynical contrivance apparently aimed at cloaking America’s failure in illusions of future commerce.", "zh": "比如，国务卿克里在其最近的新德里演讲中表示，稳定阿富汗的关键是建设“新丝绸之路 ” ， 将它和中亚联系起来 — — 这个蹩脚的借口显然是在用未来商业幻觉掩盖美国的失败。", "index": 3382}
{"en": "Kerry’s insistence that the US is not withdrawing, but “drawing down,” is a similarly transparent attempt at manipulation.", "zh": "克里坚持说美国不是撤退，而是“缩编 ” ， 这也显然是文字操纵伎俩。", "index": 3383}
{"en": "To be sure, America’s presence in Afghanistan has spawned important regional linkages; unfortunately, they are not the kind that support economic renewal.", "zh": "毫无疑问，美国在阿富汗的存在催生了重要的地区联系；不幸的是，这些联系并不能支持经济复苏。", "index": 3384}
{"en": "The last decade of war and lawlessness has facilitated the Taliban’s proliferation across Pakistan and Afghanistan, leading the Taliban to consider itself an indefatigable force – a belief that could lead its leaders to undercut any progress toward stability.", "zh": "过去十年的战争和法律真空助长了塔利班在巴基斯坦和阿富汗的滋生，导致塔利班自视为不屈不挠的军事力量 — — 这样的信念可能导致其领导人破坏任何通往稳定的进程。", "index": 3385}
{"en": "In fact, the Taliban’s confidence already drove them to disrupt plans for peace talks with the Afghan government.", "zh": "事实上，塔利班的信心已然促使他们干扰与阿富汗政府的和平谈判计划。", "index": 3386}
{"en": "After agreeing to establish an office in Qatar exclusively to host the talks, in June the Taliban opened a quasi-embassy of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.”", "zh": "塔利班先是同意在卡塔尔成立一个办公室专门用来举行谈判，但在6月，他们又与“阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国”建立了准大使级关系。", "index": 3387}
{"en": "The Afghan government responded by suspending talks with the Taliban, as well as the status-of-forces negotiations with the US.", "zh": "阿富汗政府的反应时中止了与塔利班的谈判和与美国的军队地位谈判。", "index": 3388}
{"en": "Pakistan recommends seeking an alternate venue for the negotiations with the Taliban, rather than abandoning reconciliation efforts altogether.", "zh": "巴基斯坦建议寻找其他地点与塔利班谈判，而不要一股脑儿放弃协调努力。", "index": 3389}
{"en": "This bodes well for the resumption of talks, given that Pakistan played a leading role in facilitating the Taliban’s emergence and is now home to the Afghan Taliban’s ruling council, including its leader, Mullah Omar, along with the Pakistani Taliban.", "zh": "这对重启谈判来说是个福音，因为巴基斯坦在帮助塔利班崛起方面扮演了重要角色，也是阿富汗塔利班统治委员会（包括其领袖奥马尔）和巴基斯坦塔利班的老巢。", "index": 3390}
{"en": "India’s former ambassador to Afghanistan, Vivek Katju, is confident that Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s anger at the Taliban’s gambit in Qatar will not delay negotiations for long.", "zh": "前印度驻阿富汗大使卡特居（Vivek Katju）信心满满地认为，阿富汗总统卡尔扎伊对塔利班卡塔尔策略的愤怒将长期推迟谈判。", "index": 3391}
{"en": "(Indeed, Karzai has reportedly already met with Taliban representatives for secret talks aimed at restarting the stalled peace initiative.)", "zh": "（事实上，卡尔扎伊已多次会见塔利班代表进行秘密谈判，目的是重启陷入停顿的和平计划。 ）", "index": 3392}
{"en": "Katju attributes the talks’ inevitable resumption to America’s “strategic desperation,” which is so acute that the US would be unlikely even to follow through on Kerry’s pledge to call off the talks if any link to Al Qaeda were found.", "zh": "卡特居认为谈判必然重启的原因是美国的“战略绝望 ” ， 这种绝望极其强烈，以至于如果找到与基地组织的联系，美国甚至不可能兑现克里取消谈判的承诺。", "index": 3393}
{"en": "After all, the US has already accepted the Taliban’s unrealistic assurances that it will not use Afghanistan as a base from which to “foment trouble” – that is, execute terrorist attacks – elsewhere.", "zh": "毕竟，美国已经接受了塔利班不现实的保证 — — 不会利用阿富汗作为在别的地区“挑起麻烦 ” （ 即进行恐怖袭击）的基地。", "index": 3394}
{"en": "Fortunately for the US, the Taliban is no longer a homogeneous group.", "zh": "对美国来说，幸事是塔利班不再是铁板一块的组织。", "index": 3395}
{"en": "A decade of running and hiding from unrelenting surveillance and targeted drone attacks has caused the movement to splinter.", "zh": "十年来一刻不停地与监控和定向无人机攻击捉迷藏已经造成了塔利班内部的裂痕。", "index": 3396}
{"en": "Yet, as the security expert Sajjan M. Gohel has observed, “the displaced and disillusioned Taliban youth of today” have “found solace and purpose in an extremely radical interpretation of Islam.”", "zh": "但是，正如安全专家高尔（Sajjan M. Gohel）所观察的 ， “ 流离失所、幻想破灭的今日塔利班青年”已经“在对伊斯兰教的极端激进的解释中找到了慰藉和目标。", "index": 3397}
{"en": "The Taliban may no longer be a unified force, but they clearly remain a dangerous one.", "zh": "”塔利班可能不再是团结的军事力量，但显然仍是极其危险的。", "index": 3398}
{"en": "All of these developments have put India in a difficult position.", "zh": "所有这些发展趋势让印度的处境极其艰难。", "index": 3399}
{"en": "In Afghanistan, America’s military was so tactically dependent on Pakistan that, on several occasions, the US encouraged India to curtail development projects, such as rebuilding Afghanistan’s infrastructure.", "zh": "在阿富汗，战术上美军极其依赖巴基斯坦，在不少情形中，美国还鼓励印度削减开发项目，如阿富汗基础设施的重建。", "index": 3400}
{"en": "Following America’s military withdrawal, Afghanistan will most likely revert to pre-war conditions; Pakistan will revive state-sponsored terrorism against India; and extremism will spill into the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.", "zh": "美军撤退后，阿富汗极有可能回到战前状态；巴基斯坦国家支持的针对印度的恐怖主义将复兴；极端主义���溢出波及印度查默邦和克什米尔邦。", "index": 3401}
{"en": "In order to make the best of a grim situation, India must be prepared to protect its own interests at all costs.", "zh": "为了尽量减轻不利情形，印度必须做好不惜一切代价捍卫自身利益的准备。", "index": 3402}
{"en": "After all, as the US extricates itself from its Afghan quagmire, its own national interests will continue to trump all other considerations.", "zh": "毕竟，随着美国从阿富汗泥沼中脱身而出，其自身国家利益将继续压倒其他一切考虑。", "index": 3403}
{"en": "But China, Pakistan, and Iran also have their own important national-security interests in Afghanistan that each will now do their utmost to guarantee.", "zh": "但中国、巴基斯坦和伊朗也有其重要国家安全利益在阿富汗，它们都会竭尽全力维护这一利益。", "index": 3404}
{"en": "So, while US troops may be leaving Afghanistan, an end to the violence spawned by America’s war remains nothing more than a distant dream – especially for Afghanistan’s South Asian neighbors.", "zh": "因此，早美国军队可能离开阿富汗的同时，而由这场美国战争而形成的暴力平息局面也将化为一场泡影 — — 特别是对阿富汗的南亚邻国来说。", "index": 3405}
{"en": "Afghanistan’s Customary Anguish", "zh": "阿富汗陋习所带来的痛苦", "index": 3406}
{"en": "FARAH, AFGHANISTAN – When the problems riddling Afghan society are listed – violence, insecurity, corruption, religious fundamentalism – one dominating factor is usually left out: the influence of customary law.", "zh": "阿富汗法拉赫 — — 在历数暴力、危险、腐败、原教旨主义等诸多困扰阿富汗的谜题时，人人往往遗漏了一个起决定作用的因素：那就是习惯法的影响。", "index": 3407}
{"en": "In Afghanistan, there are three principal legal references:  constitutional law, the Koran, and the system of customary law known as Farhang, the most dominant and strictest version of which is called Pashtunwali (the way of the Pashtuns).", "zh": "当前影响阿富汗的主要有三大法律体系：宪法、古兰经和被称为Farhang的习惯法。 而在习惯法中，最重要也最严格的版本当属普什图法（Pashtunwali ） 。", "index": 3408}
{"en": "Originally an ancient honor code, Farhang ensures the dominance of the oldest male of any household, followed by married sons, unmarried sons, and grandsons, then wives (with the youngest at the bottom).", "zh": "Farhang起源于古老的荣誉守则，目的是确保家庭控制权掌握在最年长的男子手中。 接下来掌握决策权的依次是已婚儿子、未婚儿子、孙子和妻子（最年轻的排在最末 ） 。", "index": 3409}
{"en": "Collective decisions are taken by patriarchs in councils called jirgas, where all have to be in agreement.", "zh": "集体决策由jirgas委员会中的长老做出，所有人都必须服从他们的决策。", "index": 3410}
{"en": "This agreement includes including collaborating or not with the Taliban, cooperating with the Coalition forces, accepting or refusing poppy eradication in a village.", "zh": "决策内容包括是否与塔利班和联盟武装合作，还包括接受或拒绝在村子里铲除罂粟。", "index": 3411}
{"en": "Everything else is left to patriarchal discretion.  Here, no one will intervene except to reinforce the application of  the patriarch's rights – say, in stoning a supposedly wayward girl, or turning a blind eye to so-called “honor killings” of women.", "zh": "所有事务的生杀大权均由族长们掌握。 除巩固族长权利外任何人无权干涉 — — 比方说用石块砸死一个任性胡为的女孩，或者对女性所谓的“荣誉杀戮”熟视无睹。", "index": 3412}
{"en": "Every act of an Afghan male’s life is integrated in a form of reciprocity, in which nothing is free.", "zh": "阿富汗男性生命中的一举一动均包含某种形式的互换，没有什么东西是不付出代价就可以得到的。", "index": 3413}
{"en": "Melmastia, the basic tenet of hospitality means “I will give you shelter if you ask me to, even if you are a fugitive murderer; but, in exchange, you fight my battles.”", "zh": "Melmastia（互惠互利）是人际交往的基本原则，它意味着“即使你是亡命天涯的杀人凶手，只要来求我帮助我也会为你提供栖身之所，但交换条件是，你必须为我战斗。", "index": 3414}
{"en": "This sense of customary obligation is why so many of President Hamid Karzai’s cronies remain in place and Taliban leaders remain safe.", "zh": "”这种约定俗成的责任意识就可以解释为什么哈米德·卡尔扎伊总统的那么多亲信依然在位，也可以解释塔利班领导人为什么仍然安全。", "index": 3415}
{"en": "Women are excluded from collective decision-making, as they are mere objects.", "zh": "女人被排斥在集体决策的过程之外，因为她们不过是没有思想的物品。", "index": 3416}
{"en": "Girls are literally sold upon marriage (the father is paid money for his daughter’s labor and reproductive capacity) and join their husband’s household.", "zh": "女孩在结婚时基本上是待价而沽（父亲能为自己女儿的劳动和生育能力而得到报酬 ） ， 并在婚后进入丈夫的家族。", "index": 3417}
{"en": "The younger the girl, the higher the price.", "zh": "越年轻的女孩售价就越高。", "index": 3418}
{"en": "Marriage, especially in the provinces, is routinely consummated on pre-pubescent bodies.", "zh": "尤其是在阿富汗所属各省，结婚的通常都是尚在青春期的女孩。", "index": 3419}
{"en": "Yet women are precious in their own way.", "zh": "但女性也有女性的宝贵之处。", "index": 3420}
{"en": "A family’s principal “cultural capital” is its honor, which is ensured by denying women any opportunity to highlight male failings and therefore tarnish clan respectability.", "zh": "一个家族主要的“文化资本”是家族的荣耀，而保护家族荣耀必须确保不让女性有任何机会指出男性所犯的错误、从而玷污家族的名望。", "index": 3421}
{"en": "As a result, women must be strictly secluded and made invisible when in public, for they are personally responsible for the desire that they could ignite in schools, hospitals, parks, or markets.", "zh": "因此，必须让女性彻底与世隔绝，不在公众场合抛头露面，因为女性出现在学校、医院、公园或市场可能点燃的欲望都要由她们自己负责。", "index": 3422}
{"en": "The all-covering burqa ensures sufficient anonymity to permit women a certain amount of freedom in public space.", "zh": "把浑身上下包裹得严严实实的长袍可以很好地隐藏她们的身份，让她们一定程度上能在公共场所自由活动。", "index": 3423}
{"en": "Every female simultaneously carries her father’s and her husband’s honor, and will stoically submit to all forms of violence committed in its name.", "zh": "每位女性同时肩负着父亲和丈夫的荣耀，对于所有以上述名义强加的暴力都必须无条件的服从。", "index": 3424}
{"en": "This may mean dying in childbirth rather than risking the “dishonor” of giving birth in a public place, a hospital, in front of strangers.", "zh": "这或许意味着她们必须选择宁愿在生孩子的时候死去，也不能甘冒受辱的危险去医院这样的公共场所接受陌生人的帮助。", "index": 3425}
{"en": "Going to court is practically unheard of, as it would mean renouncing family practices.", "zh": "上法院更是几乎闻所未闻，因为这意味着放弃家族决定权。", "index": 3426}
{"en": "From the male point of view, resorting to outside police or judicial intervention would signify an inability to fight one’s own battles – an admission of defeat and a symbolic castration.", "zh": "从男性的角度看，求助于外来的警察或司法力量意味着没有能力独立作战 — — 这等同于承认失败并接受象征性的阉割。", "index": 3427}
{"en": "This helps explain the intense corruption present in Afghan courts, where “honor” can be redeemed by bribing a judge to have a rapist or murderer released.", "zh": "这有助于解释阿富汗法院存在的严重腐败现象，人们相信可以通过贿赂法官释放强奸或杀人犯来赎回“荣耀 ” 。", "index": 3428}
{"en": "As violence is strictly a private matter, relinquishing justice to state institutions could be an unacceptable humiliation.", "zh": "因为暴力纯属于私人事务，将裁决权拱手让给国家机构可以成为一种令人无法忍受的耻辱。", "index": 3429}
{"en": "Customary law is not rigid in that it is made to fit round the demands of global economy.", "zh": "习惯法在最初诞生时并不死板，因为它需要适应全球经济发展的需求。", "index": 3430}
{"en": "It has become more rigorous in it s applications due to the influence ofmilitant Islam, which seeks to use religious texts to legitimize escalating brutality, especially against women.", "zh": "后来在执行上越来越僵化死板主要是受到伊斯兰好战主义的影响，好战份子试图借助宗教教义来实现暴力升级、特别是使针对妇女的暴力合法化。", "index": 3431}
{"en": "However, Farhang and privatized violence are precisely what Mohammad sought to ban through Koranic law, which went beyond the personal domain and instituted a code that gave some rights to women.", "zh": "但是，Farhang和个人暴力正是默罕默德希望通过古兰经法律禁止的行为，它已经超越了私人事务领域，制定了一部法规，并将某种形式的权利赋予了女性。", "index": 3432}
{"en": "For example, while the Koran allows for a measure of female inheritance, tribal custom does not authorize it, which explains the popularity of tribal councils to resolve inheritance problems and cheat women out of their rights.", "zh": "比方说，尽管古兰经允许对女性的继承权进行考量，但部族惯例对此却并不认可，这也可以解释为什么靠欺骗妇女放弃继承权来解决继承问题在部族委员会如此盛行。", "index": 3433}
{"en": "Similarly, whereas the Koran requires four eyewitnesses as proof of adultery, mere suspicion of some unregulated, potentially sexual conduct by a woman warrants stoning under customary law.", "zh": "同样，古兰经规定必须有四名目击证人才能证实通奸罪，但仅仅怀疑一名女性可能发生过违法性行为就足以按照习惯法的规则对其处以石刑。", "index": 3434}
{"en": "Yet an awareness of alternatives is seeping in through the media, even in remote provinces.", "zh": "但即使是在最边远的省份，对于替代性选择的认识也正透过媒体逐渐地向人们渗透。", "index": 3435}
{"en": "Iranian films and the much loved Indian TV serials, not to mention the occasional American film, influence peoples' expectations.", "zh": "伊朗影片和备受喜爱的印度连续剧，更不要说偶尔上映的美国电影都在潜移默化地影响着人们的看法。", "index": 3436}
{"en": "Add to that the experience of having lived abroad as refugees in Pakistan and Iran.", "zh": "曾经在巴基斯坦和伊朗的难民生活经历也起到同样的作用。", "index": 3437}
{"en": "Girls know that there are options to an unacceptable way of life: women are increasingly demanding more from life than what custom ordains.", "zh": "女孩们知道除接受无法容忍的生活方式外还有其他选择：在习俗规定的范围外，女性对生活提出了越来越多的要求。", "index": 3438}
{"en": "This is especially true for those who have lived in Iran, a totally Muslim environment that allows women the freedom to study and work as well as access to adequate healthcare and family planning.", "zh": "那些曾经在伊朗生活的人尤其如此，那里虽然是纯而又纯的穆斯林环境，但却允许妇女自由地学习和工作，也可以享有充分的医疗和计划生育保障。", "index": 3439}
{"en": "Once back in rural Afghanistan, forced into brutal marriages, many desperate women – especially returnees from Iran – resort to self-immolation.", "zh": "一旦返回到阿富汗农村，被迫接受野蛮的婚姻，许多绝望的女性 — — 特别是从伊朗回国的女性 — — 宁愿选择自我毁灭的道路。", "index": 3440}
{"en": "Violence and murder of women are on the increase, perpetrated by men who feel that these alternatives pose a threat to their authority.", "zh": "针对妇女的暴力和谋杀呈上升趋势，因为犯罪的男性感到这些选择对他们的权威构成了挑战。", "index": 3441}
{"en": "The West imagines that religion is the central issue in Afghanistan.", "zh": "西方人普遍认为宗教是阿富汗问题的核心。", "index": 3442}
{"en": "But the heart of the matter is the preservation of ancient patriarchal rights that go back to Biblical times, reformatted to fit the demands of globalized capitalism.", "zh": "但问题的症结所在是保留了可以追溯到《圣经》时代的古老的宗族权利，上述宗族权利只是进行了某些调整来适应全球化资本主义的要求。", "index": 3443}
{"en": "Governments and international aid organizations have failed to take into consideration the role of Farhang, perhaps because the power of unwritten law remains largely inconceivable in the West.", "zh": "政府和国际援助机构尚未将Farhang的作用纳入考虑，也许因为多数西方人无法理解不成文法律的力量。", "index": 3444}
{"en": "But Afghanistan cannot begin to solve its many problems until it criminalizes the privatized violence of this antiquated code.", "zh": "但在惩罚这项古老规则引发的私人暴力之前，阿富汗的许多问题都无法得到解决。", "index": 3445}
{"en": "Afghanistan’s Drug-Friendly Environment", "zh": "阿富汗适宜毒品的环境", "index": 3446}
{"en": "Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai has stepped up international fundraising efforts in recent weeks, seeking a fresh package of military and reconstruction aid from the United States, together with stronger strategic guarantees.", "zh": "阿富汗总统哈米德·卡尔扎伊（Hamid Karzai）最近几周加强了国际筹款活动，向美国寻求新的一系列武器和重建援助以及更强的战术保障。", "index": 3447}
{"en": "But Karzai’s relationship with his sponsors has begun to sour, in part owing to charges that his government has failed to stop the resurgence of Afghanistan’s huge opium trade.", "zh": "但是卡尔扎伊与其资助人之间的关系已经开始恶化，一部分原因是由于他的政府未能阻止阿富汗大规模的鸦片贸易的兴起。", "index": 3448}
{"en": "Underlying the opium trade issue is a security threat of another kind, one overlooked since the US-led invasion toppled the Taliban regime in 2001, despite the grave risk it poses to Afghanistan’s long-term stability, and that of the region.", "zh": "隐藏在鸦片贸易问题下面的是另外一种安全威胁，尽管这个问题对阿富汗以及该地区的长期稳定造成了严重威胁，但是自2001年美国为首发动入侵并颠覆塔利班政权以来，它从来没有被重视过。", "index": 3449}
{"en": "In countries like Afghanistan, where 80% of the population lives on what they grow and many communities live far from any water source, environmental damage can be both economically devastating and politically momentous.", "zh": "阿富汗国内80%人口以种植业为生，许多村落居住在远离水源之处，在这样一个国家里，环境的危害不仅会造成经济恶化，也会给政治带来严重影响。", "index": 3450}
{"en": "That lesson should have been absorbed and understood, not least by American strategists, long before the Taliban’s fall.", "zh": "在塔利班垮台以前，人们就应该吸取并记住这个教训，尤其是美国的战略家。", "index": 3451}
{"en": "After all, desertification and deforestation helped fuel the rise, two decades earlier, of the Maoist guerilla group Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) in Peru.", "zh": "毕竟，沙漠化和森林采伐促成了二十多年前秘鲁的毛泽东主义游击队Sendero Luminoso（光辉道路）的崛起。", "index": 3452}
{"en": "Sendero, which supplemented its income with drug production and timber smuggling, deliberately chose drought-weakened and deforested mountain villages as the stronghold of its insurgency.", "zh": "Sendero靠种植毒品和走私木材补充收入，刻意选择那些久经干旱、采伐过度的山地村庄作为他们叛乱的根据地。", "index": 3453}
{"en": "Similarly, the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, which has claimed 10,000 lives, exploits the desperation of mountain villagers hit by flash floods – the result of deforestation higher up.", "zh": "同样，导致10,000多人丧生的尼泊尔毛泽东主义叛乱使得那些遭受骤发洪水袭击的山地村民彻底绝望，骤发洪水正是高地森林采伐的结果。", "index": 3454}
{"en": "No Maoist group could ever gain a toehold in Afghanistan’s parched Pashtun south (these were, after all, people who, bare-knuckled, smashed the Soviets).", "zh": "没有毛泽东主义团体可以在阿富汗南部普什图族（Pashtun）干裂的土地上获得立足之地（毕竟这些人曾经赤手空拳击溃苏联 ） 。", "index": 3455}
{"en": "But the Taliban’s rapid rise in the 1990’s was inextricably linked to the failure of irrigation systems.", "zh": "但是上世纪九十年代塔利班的迅速壮大与灌溉体系的失败不无关系。", "index": 3456}
{"en": "Villagers whose crops shriveled and whose livestock died in a prolonged drought saw joining the Taliban as an economic opportunity.", "zh": "村民们的庄稼在一场持续干旱中枯萎、牲口也大批死亡，他们把加入塔利班看作一个改善经济的机会。", "index": 3457}
{"en": "Had there been more irrigation, the Taliban’s gains might have been far less impressive.", "zh": "如果有更多的灌溉的话，塔利班所占有的也许就远没有那么令人印象深刻。", "index": 3458}
{"en": "The Taliban are now an increasingly spent force, but lack of water reinforced the logic of opium production across its former strongholds in the south.", "zh": "如今，塔利班已是强弩之末，然而水源的缺乏更使它难以维系它在前南方大本营的鸦片生产流程。", "index": 3459}
{"en": "Irrigation has failed or is inadequate in Helmand, Uruzgan, and Kandahar – three of the top five opium-producing provinces – where indebted farmers are hooked by the economics: opium brings in eight times as much cash as wheat and uses less water.", "zh": "在灌溉失败或不足的赫尔曼德、Uruzgan和坎大哈 — — 五大鸦片生产大省中的三个 — — 负债累累的农民受到经济利益的诱惑；鸦片带来的收入是种植小麦的八倍，并且用水更少。", "index": 3460}
{"en": "Without serious investment in irrigation, including construction of reservoirs to make use of the snowfall in the Hindu Kush, and in new cash crops such as saffron and rose oil, Afghanistan’s drift toward narco-statehood will continue, with all the instability that this implies.", "zh": "如果缺乏对灌溉系统的大力投资，包括建造水库以充分利用兴都库什（Hindu Kush）的降雪，并投资种植新的诸如藏红花和玫瑰油等经济作物，阿富汗将随着由此引发的种种不稳定性，逐渐成为一个毒品之国。", "index": 3461}
{"en": "Clear-cutting of old growth forests in the mountains bordering Pakistan may prove as problematic.", "zh": "巴基斯坦山区边界滥砍滥伐老熟森林的做法受到质疑。", "index": 3462}
{"en": "Agriculture there has been damaged by the cutting of walnut, apricot, and mulberry trees for winter fuel, and by a failure to replant poplar, willow, and tamarisk – the trees that hold fragile meadows in place.", "zh": "由于为获取冬天的燃料而砍伐核桃树、杏树和桑树，同时又未能重新种植那些能够紧抓松弛地表土壤的白杨树、柳树和西河柳，当地的农业已经遭受重创。", "index": 3463}
{"en": "These sorts of trees can be restored, given a concerted campaign and investment in nurseries to produce local varieties.", "zh": "如果人们齐心协力，投资培育开发本地树木品种，这些种类的树木就能重新恢复。", "index": 3464}
{"en": "Loss of the ancient cedar, pine, fir, and oak forests on the slopes above is another matter.", "zh": "山坡上的古杉木、松树、枞树和橡树林的消失是另外一个问题。", "index": 3465}
{"en": "This year’s snowmelt caused landslides and flooding – a warning of more soil erosion and destruction of arable land to come; hundreds died and thousands lost their livelihoods.", "zh": "今年的雪融水引发了山崩和洪水 — — 这是更多土壤遭受侵蚀以及耕地将被大量破坏的警告；数百人丧生于此，成千上万的人失去了生计。", "index": 3466}
{"en": "Forestry has always been a problem in Afghanistan.", "zh": "阿富汗的森林一直是一个棘手问题。", "index": 3467}
{"en": "In 1960, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization spoke of wasteful logging practices, such as “head-skidding” (in which a log is rolled downhill, ripping up plants and soil).", "zh": "1960年，联合国食品和农业组织（FAO）谈到了不经济的伐木行为，例如“ 木头滚滑法（head-skidding ） ” （即将木头滚下山去，同时将树木带着土壤连根拔起 ） 。", "index": 3468}
{"en": "Aerial photographers were called in, and a large budget was set aside.", "zh": "航空摄影师被召来拍摄照片，结果预算被取消了。", "index": 3469}
{"en": "But, in 1976, the FAO admitted in a new plan that forest and watershed management activities had “turned out to be quite limited.”", "zh": "但是1976年FAO在一项新计划中承认森林和水流域的管理行动“十分有限 ” 。", "index": 3470}
{"en": "The 1976 plan called for sustainable logging and basic forest-fire control, but war intervened, costing Afghanistan half its forest cover.", "zh": "1976年计划呼吁可持续发展地伐木以及森林火灾的基本控制，但是战争爆发使阿富汗失去了一半的森林土地。", "index": 3471}
{"en": "Up to 60% of the old growth forest in Nangahar, the second largest opium-producing province, may have been cut during the war years.", "zh": "第二大鸦片生产省楠阿哈省（Nangahar）有达60%的土地是老熟林，但它们在战争期间被砍伐一空。", "index": 3472}
{"en": "Mujahedin factions and later the Taliban exported stands of fine-grained cedar by the truckload from Nangahar and surrounding provinces to Pakistan, often in return for arms.", "zh": "圣战组织的派系以及后来的塔利班用货车从楠阿哈省及周边地区向巴基斯坦出口品种优良的杉木，经常以此交换武器。", "index": 3473}
{"en": "Illegal logging continues today, with only ineffectual efforts made to stop it.", "zh": "直至今日，由于没有有效措施，非法伐木仍在继续。", "index": 3474}
{"en": "At the current rate, Afghanistan’s old growth forest could vanish within a decade.", "zh": "按照目前的速度，阿富汗的老熟林将在十年内消失尽贻。", "index": 3475}
{"en": "The UN acknowledges the problem but is (rightly) unwilling to risk sending forestry experts into a tribal region where American and allied troops venture only in armored convoys.", "zh": "联合国认识到了这个问题，但是却不愿意冒风险将森林学专家派往一个连美国及其联军只有在武装护卫的情况下才敢冒险涉足的偏远部族地区。", "index": 3476}
{"en": "Safety concerns and cost also limit intervention by international conservation organizations.", "zh": "安全问题及成本问题限制了国际保护组织的介入。", "index": 3477}
{"en": "A new initiative called the Green Corps includes 300 forest rangers charged with stopping illegal logging, and the ministry hopes to boost their numbers within a year. But the initiative is unlikely to have much effect.", "zh": "一项新的称之为绿色团体（Green Corps）的计划包括了300名负责阻止非法伐木的森林巡逻员，并且政府希望在一年内增加巡逻员人数。", "index": 3478}
{"en": "Illegal logging crews number 200 or more.", "zh": "但是这个计划看起来并不太可能有效。", "index": 3479}
{"en": "They have chain saws and trucks. They are armed and work with the backing of drug and emerald smugglers – and often of local officials.", "zh": "非法伐木队共计200余人，他们有锯子和卡车，他们全副武装，并在毒品和翡翠走私者（通常是当地官员）的支持下工作。", "index": 3480}
{"en": "The price of plank cedar in Lahore is incentive enough to corrupt, or kill, any Green Corps men brave enough to stand in their way.", "zh": "厚杉木在拉合尔（Lahore）的价格之高足以让他们去贿赂或杀害任何一个绿色团体中敢挡他们路的人。", "index": 3481}
{"en": "Environmental issues are of paramount importance in marginal countries because their impact on human survival is immediate and direct.", "zh": "环境问题对边缘国家十分重要，因为它对人类生存具有立竿见影的直接影响。", "index": 3482}
{"en": "The inadequate response to pressing questions of natural resource management, whether of water or trees, merely strengthens the hands of opium dealers and malcontents in what is already the most disaffected and sensitive part of Afghanistan – the clear-cut mountain slopes where intelligence officers believe Osama bin Laden is most likely holed up.", "zh": "若对紧迫的自然资源管理问题 — — 不管是水资源还是森林资源的管理问题反应措施不当，就只会在砍伐一空的山坡地带 — — 阿富汗本已充斥不满情绪和最敏感的地带，加强鸦片商人和不满分子的力量。 情报官员相信那里是奥萨马·本·拉登最有可能洗劫的地方。", "index": 3483}
{"en": "Afghanistan’s Feminist Revolution", "zh": "阿富汗的女权主义革命", "index": 3484}
{"en": "On April 16, more than 300 Afghani women – many of them students – marched together in Kabul in protest of a new law passed by Parliament that would impose a series of Taliban-like restrictions on women.", "zh": "4月16日，300多名阿富汗妇女 — — 其中有不少是学生 — — 在喀布尔举行联合游行，抗议议会通过一项新的法律，将一系列塔利班式的限制强加给女性。", "index": 3485}
{"en": "The law would permit marital rape, limit women’s movements – say, for work or study – without male permission, and even make it illegal for a woman to refuse to dress as her husband wishes.", "zh": "这项法律允许婚内强奸行为，限制在没有得到男性许可前提下女性的行动 — — 比如工作或者学习，甚至将女人拒绝像丈夫希望的那样穿衣打扮规定为非法。", "index": 3486}
{"en": "The women, facing a crowd of furious men calling them “whores” and other epithets, marched two miles under a rain of abuse and delivered their petition against the law to legislators.", "zh": "这些妇女面对着用“妓女”和其他侮辱性绰号辱骂她们的愤怒的男人，在一片谩骂声中游行了两英里，向议员们表达了她们对这部法律的不满。", "index": 3487}
{"en": "Both houses of Parliament had approved the law, and President Hamid Karzai signed it.", "zh": "议会上下两院都已经通过了这部法律，哈米德·卡尔扎伊总统也已经签字批准。", "index": 3488}
{"en": "The law now affects only the Shia minority, but threatens to affect pending legislation that could restrict the rights of non-Shia women as well.", "zh": "这部法律目前只影响到什叶派少数族裔，不过或许会影响到可能限制非什叶派妇女权利的即将表决的法案。", "index": 3489}
{"en": "When Western media sought quotes from the women, they frequently heard a Western-style feminist refrain: “These laws would make women into a kind of property.”", "zh": "当西方媒体采访游行妇女的时候，他们经常会听到与西方式女权主义类似的观点 ： “ 这部法律会把女人变成一种财产。", "index": 3490}
{"en": "In the West, the counterpoint to the notion of woman as property has been a highly individualistic demand for personal autonomy – decision-making based primarily on a woman’s own wishes, rather than as wife, mother, community member, or worshipper.", "zh": "”在西方，把女人当作财产的说法对应着高度个性化的个人自主权要求 — — 即按照妇女自身的愿望做出决定，而不顾及她作为妻子、母亲、社会成员或宗教信徒的社会角色。", "index": 3491}
{"en": "But, while some Western feminist insights may be useful to Afghani women and other women in the developing world as they resist certain forms of male oppression, we should not assume – as Western feminists often have – that our job is to proselytize “our” feminism.", "zh": "不过尽管某些西方女权主义观点可能有助于阿富汗和其他发展中国家女性抗拒特定形式的男性压迫，但我们不应当想当然地认定 — — 就像西方女权主义者常干的那样 — — 我们的任务是让“我们的”女权主义者改变她们的观点。", "index": 3492}
{"en": "On the contrary, the feminism expressed by women such as these Afghani heroines should educate us in the West about our own shortcomings.", "zh": "恰恰相反，阿富汗女主人公们表达的女权主义思想应当教育西方人认识到自身的弱点。", "index": 3493}
{"en": "The core theory with which emerging feminists in more traditional and religious societies are working is far different from that of Western feminism – and in some ways far more profound and humane.", "zh": "在传统并信奉宗教的社会中新兴的女权主义核心理论与西方的女权主义差别很大 — — 从某种角度来讲前者的人性化和深刻程度远远超过了后者。", "index": 3494}
{"en": "In India, for example, feminists articulated to me a vision of women’s equality that was family-centered rather than self-centered, and that valued service to community rather than personal gratification.", "zh": "比如在印度，女权主义者们向我阐述的女性平等理念更偏重于以家庭而不是以自我为中心，她们更看重的是对社会的贡献而不是个人的满足感。", "index": 3495}
{"en": "They did not see their struggle as a cultural or ideological clash between men and women, but rather as a very practical effort to live free from violence and sexual assault, forced child marriage and bride-burning, and legal exclusion from parity.", "zh": "她们并没有把自己的斗争看作是男女之间的文化或意识形态冲突，而恰恰看成是使自己避免暴力和性侵害、被迫早婚和焚妻、以及法律不平等的一项实际的工作。", "index": 3496}
{"en": "The emerging consensus in India in support of greater rights and freedoms for women, while certainly causing some upheaval and adjustment (especially within the growing middle classes) has not yet – and might never – poison the basic trust and warmth between men and women.", "zh": "刚刚在印度兴起的支持扩大妇女自由和权利的共识尽管注定会带来某些动荡和调整（特别是在日益壮大的中产阶级内部这种变化无法避免 ） ， 但还没有 — — 或许永远也不会 — — 损害男女之间最基本的信任和温暖。", "index": 3497}
{"en": "Nor does it seem likely to emulate the splintered, individualized, solitary society – and the commodified sexual revolution – that Western, self-based feminism reflects.", "zh": "它似乎也不会步分裂、个性化、孤独社会 — — 以及西方自我中心的女权主义所反应的商业化性解放的后尘。", "index": 3498}
{"en": "This version of feminism – the notion that women can claim equality and still have a valued role in the home, prize family above all, and view rights in the context of community and spirituality – seems like a much-needed corrective to some of Western feminism’s shortcomings.", "zh": "此类女权主义版本 — — 女性有权要求平等但仍然在家庭中体现价值、把家庭利益放在首位、并以社会和精神为背景来看待权利的理念 — — 似乎是某些西方女权主义缺点迫切需要的修正手段。", "index": 3499}
{"en": "Ideally, men’s drive for progress in the developing world would also evolve, uniting the idea of the autonomous self with support for family, community, and other ties, and Western men would learn from this as well.", "zh": "理想情况下，发展中国家男性的进步动力也会不断变化，将自主权和支持家庭、社会及其他关系的理念融合在一起，而且西方男性也会从中得到学习和提高。", "index": 3500}
{"en": "Moreover, intellectually, these women remind us that Western feminism did not have to evolve the way it did, and can still change and grow to embrace a more satisfying and humane definition of equality.", "zh": "此外，从理智的角度讲，这些妇女提醒我们西方女权主义不一定非要按照既有的方向发展，我们仍然可以对其进行修改和完善，从而使之贴近更令人满意、更具人情味的平等定义。", "index": 3501}
{"en": "Simone de Beauvoir, whose seminal book The Second Sex laid the groundwork for post-war Western feminism, was an Existentialist who was neither a wife nor a mother nor a woman of faith.", "zh": "西蒙·德·波伏娃的著作《第二性》奠定了战后西方女权主义的基础，是一种既非妻子又非母亲亦非信徒的存在主义者形象。", "index": 3502}
{"en": "So her work naturally posited female freedom in a secular, solitary, and individualistic context, in which “freedom” means pure autonomy rather than integration within a whole – comprising family, community, and even God – on equal terms.", "zh": "因此她的著作自然而然地把女性自由置于一种世俗、孤立和个人主义的背景之下，其中的“自由”意味着纯粹的自主而非在平等的前提下与家庭���团体甚至是上帝组成的统一体的融合。", "index": 3503}
{"en": "The good news for all women, East and West, is that President Karzai, under intense international criticism – and not just Western criticism – changed the law less than one week after the march.", "zh": "对东西方妇女的好消息是卡尔扎伊总统在严厉的国际批评下 — — 这样的批评言论不只来自于西方 — — 在游行结束不到一周后就修改了这项法律。", "index": 3504}
{"en": "This global uproar is a testament to how three decades of Western feminist challenges to leadership have changed the world for the better.", "zh": "这次国际动荡证明了三十年来西方女权主义者对领导权的挑战怎样让世界向好的方向发展。", "index": 3505}
{"en": "But our (Western) moment of feminist leadership is over now – for good reasons.", "zh": "但我们（西方）把持女权主义领导地位的时代已经结束了 — — 而且之所以这样也有充分的理由。", "index": 3506}
{"en": "We know by now what our problems are as women in the West, and we know the blueprint for solving them.", "zh": "我们现在知道西方女性的问题在哪里，而且也已经清楚解决之道。", "index": 3507}
{"en": "What we lack now is not analysis, but the organizational and political will to do so.", "zh": "我们现在缺乏的不是分析，而是切实执行的组织和政治意愿。", "index": 3508}
{"en": "So the leadership role is shifting to women in the developing world.", "zh": "因此领导权已经转移到发展中国家的妇女手中。", "index": 3509}
{"en": "Their agenda is more pressing, and their problems, frankly, far more serious than ours, which makes it much more urgent for them to develop theories appropriate to the challenges they face.", "zh": "她们的任务更加紧迫，而且坦率地讲，她们的问题比我们严重得多，因此她们迫切需要发展与所面临挑战相适应的理论。", "index": 3510}
{"en": "If one of those courageous Afghan women who marched in Kabul wrote – as I hope she or one of her sisters in the developing world is doing right now – the seminal text for the next 50 years on non-Western feminism, it would no doubt be equality-driven and practical.", "zh": "如果某位参与喀布尔游行的勇敢的阿富汗妇女写出 — — 就像我希望她或她在发展中国家的某位姐妹正在做的那样 — — 今后50年非西方女权主义的根本性文字，那么它毫无疑问将来自于平等的驱动并的确切实可行。", "index": 3511}
{"en": "And perhaps, in its likely view of the world as being more than the sum of consuming, competing autonomies, or gender warfare, it would be a valuable challenge to truisms that we Western feminists – and the men who love us – have thought we had to take for granted.", "zh": "而且也许，在她们把世界看作消耗、竞争自主权或性别战争的可能的见解中，它将成为对我们西方女权主义者 — — 以及热爱我们的男人 — — 曾经认为我们必须看作理所当然的真理的一次有价值的挑战。", "index": 3512}
{"en": "Afghanistan’s Opium War", "zh": "阿富汗的鸦片战争", "index": 3513}
{"en": "When NATO leaders meet for their summit in Riga at the end of this month, there will be a ghost at the feast: Afghanistan’s opium.", "zh": "北约领导人本月底在里加召开首脑会议之时，将有一个魔鬼在会议徘徊，那就是阿富汗的鸦片问题。", "index": 3514}
{"en": "Afghanistan is in danger of falling back into the hands of terrorists, insurgents, and criminals, and the multi-billion-dollar opium trade is at the heart of the country’s malaise.", "zh": "阿富汗正处于陷入恐怖份子、叛乱份子以及罪犯手中的危险，而几十亿美元的鸦片交易则是这个国家病症的核心所在。", "index": 3515}
{"en": "Indeed, NATO’s top general, James Jones, has called drugs the “Achilles heel” of Afghanistan.", "zh": "确实，北约总司令琼斯把毒品称为阿富汗的致命弱点。", "index": 3516}
{"en": "This year’s record harvest of 6,100 tons of opium will generate more than $3 billion in illicit revenue – equivalent to almost half of Afghanistan’s GDP.", "zh": "今年6100吨鸦片收成将会产生超过30亿美元的非法收入，几乎相对于阿富汗国民生产总值的一半。", "index": 3517}
{"en": "Profits for drug traffickers downstream will be almost 20 times that amount.", "zh": "下游毒贩的利润将几乎是这个数目的20倍。", "index": 3518}
{"en": "Opium money is corrupting Afghan society from top to bottom.", "zh": "鸦片收入正在从上到下腐蚀阿富汗社会。", "index": 3519}
{"en": "High-level collusion enables thousands of tons of chemical precursors, needed to produce heroin, to be trucked into the country.", "zh": "高层勾结使得数以千吨用于制造海洛因的化学前体运入该国。", "index": 3520}
{"en": "Armed convoys transport raw opium around the country unhindered.", "zh": "武装运输队在境内运输鸦片如入无人之境。", "index": 3521}
{"en": "Sometimes even army and police vehicles are involved.", "zh": "有时，连军队和警察也卷入其中。", "index": 3522}
{"en": "Guns and bribes ensure that the trucks are waved through checkpoints.", "zh": "武器和贿赂确保卡车得以通过检查站。", "index": 3523}
{"en": "Opiates flow freely across borders into Iran, Pakistan, and other Central Asian countries.", "zh": "鸦片剂大摇大摆地越境进入伊朗、巴基斯坦以及其他中亚国家。", "index": 3524}
{"en": "The opium fields of wealthy landowners are untouched, because local officials are paid off.", "zh": "由于买通了当地官员，富有地主们的鸦片种植地无人敢碰。", "index": 3525}
{"en": "Major traffickers never come to trial because judges are bribed or intimidated.", "zh": "法官们受贿或者受到恐吓，因此毒贩头子们从来都是逍遥法外。", "index": 3526}
{"en": "Senior government officials take their cut of opium revenues or bribes in return for keeping quiet.", "zh": "政府高官抽取鸦片收入或者贿赂以保持缄默。", "index": 3527}
{"en": "Perversely, some provincial governors and government officials are themselves major players in the drug trade.", "zh": "某些省长以及政府官员竟然也是毒品贸易的主要经营者。", "index": 3528}
{"en": "As a result, the Afghan state is at risk of takeover by a malign coalition of extremists, criminals, and opportunists.", "zh": "结果，阿富汗国家处在被极端份子、罪犯以及投机主义份子等组成的邪恶联盟接管的危险之中。", "index": 3529}
{"en": "Opium is choking Afghan society.", "zh": "鸦片正在令阿富汗社会窒息。", "index": 3530}
{"en": "Within Afghanistan, drug addiction is rising.", "zh": "在阿富汗境内，越来越多的人在吸毒。", "index": 3531}
{"en": "Neighbors that used to be transit states for drugs are now major consumers, owing to similar dramatic increases in opium and heroin addiction.", "zh": "由于鸦片和吸食海洛因，过去是毒品中转地的地方现在成为了主要的消费地。", "index": 3532}
{"en": "Intravenous drug use is spreading HIV/AIDS in Iran, Central Asia, and the former Soviet Union.", "zh": "使用注射毒品正在伊朗、中亚以及前苏联传播艾滋病。", "index": 3533}
{"en": "In traditional Western European markets, health officials should brace for a rise in the number of deaths from drug overdoses, as this year’s bumper opium crop will lead to higher-purity doses of heroin.", "zh": "在传统的西欧市场，由于今年鸦片作物丰收将会导致更高纯度剂量的海洛因，卫生官员将会遇到由于吸毒过量而造成的死亡数量的上升事件。", "index": 3534}
{"en": "What can be done?", "zh": "如何对付呢？", "index": 3535}
{"en": "First, the veil of corruption in Afghanistan must be lifted.", "zh": "首先，必须揭开阿富汗的腐败面纱。 阿富汗人对于傲慢而又受到武装保护的大亨们已经不耐烦了。", "index": 3536}
{"en": "Afghans are fed up with arrogant and well-armed tycoons who live in mansions and drive top-of-the range Mercedes limousines – this in a country where barely 13% of the population have electricity and most people must survive on less than $200 a year.", "zh": "他们身居豪宅，驾驶顶级的奔驰豪华轿车。 而在这个国家中，只有13%不到的人口拥有电力，大多数人必须靠每年200美元不到的收入过活。", "index": 3537}
{"en": "It is time for the Afghan government to name, shame, and sack corrupt officials, arrest major drug traffickers and opium landlords, and seize their assets.", "zh": "现在，阿富汗政府应该点名、羞辱并且解雇那些贪官，逮捕主要的毒贩和鸦片地主，并且没收他们的资产。", "index": 3538}
{"en": "Donors have trained police and prosecutors and built courts and detention centers.", "zh": "捐助国家们已经培训了警察、检察官，并且建造了法院和拘留中心。", "index": 3539}
{"en": "Now it is up to the government to use the judicial system to impose the rule of law.", "zh": "现在，政府应当使用司法体系来实施法治。", "index": 3540}
{"en": "It will be difficult, but not impossible, to re-establish confidence in the central government.", "zh": "重新建立对中央政府的信心将会是困难的，但并非不可能。", "index": 3541}
{"en": "Putting major drug traffickers behind bars at the new maximum-security prison at Pul-i-Charki, near Kabul, would be a good start.", "zh": "把主要的毒品贩子关进靠近喀布尔的波尔-伊-查基的新的最高安全戒备的监狱将会是一个良好的开端。", "index": 3542}
{"en": "Of course, Afghanistan does not bear sole responsibility for its plight.", "zh": "当然，阿富汗人对其灾难并不承担所有的责任。", "index": 3543}
{"en": "The heroin trade would not be booming if Western governments were serious about combating drug consumption.", "zh": "如果西方国家政府严肃打击毒品消费，那么，海洛因交易就不会猖獗。", "index": 3544}
{"en": "It is a bitter irony that the countries whose soldiers’ lives are on the line in Afghanistan are also the biggest markets for Afghan heroin.", "zh": "具有令人心酸的讽刺意味的是，那些向阿富汗派遣随时都有生命危险的士兵的国家同时也是阿富汗海洛因最大的市场。", "index": 3545}
{"en": "Furthermore, Afghanistan’s neighbors must do more to stop insurgents, weapons, money, and chemical precursors from flowing across their borders into the country.", "zh": "而且，阿富汗的邻国必须多做工作，以制止反叛人员、武器、金钱以及化学前体跨境进入该国。", "index": 3546}
{"en": "Coalition forces should take a more robust approach to the drug problem.", "zh": "联合部队应当对毒品问题采取更为强硬的手段。", "index": 3547}
{"en": "Counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics are two sides of the same coin.", "zh": "反叛乱和反毒品是一个问题的两个方面。", "index": 3548}
{"en": "Improving security and the rule of law must include destroying the opium trade.", "zh": "改善安全以及法治必须包括摧毁鸦片交易。", "index": 3549}
{"en": "Allowing opium traffickers to operate with impunity gives them a free hand to raise money to pay for the arms and fighters battling the Afghan army and NATO forces.", "zh": "允许鸦片贩子肆无忌惮就让他们无所顾忌地筹款来支付军火以及同阿富汗和北约军队作战的份子。", "index": 3550}
{"en": "The United Nations Security Council has authorized the International Security Assistance Force to take all necessary measures to fulfill its mandate.", "zh": "联合国安理会已经授权国际安全援助部队采取所有必要的手段来实现其使命。", "index": 3551}
{"en": "NATO troops should be given the green light to help the Afghan army fight opium – destroy the heroin labs, disband the opium bazaars, attack the opium convoys, and bring the big traders to justice.", "zh": "应当授权北约部队帮助阿富汗军队与鸦片作战，即摧毁海洛因实验室，解除鸦片集市，袭击鸦片运输队，并且把大毒贩绳之以法。", "index": 3552}
{"en": "And they should be given the tools and manpower to do the job.", "zh": "而且，应该给他们必要的装备和人员来完成使命。", "index": 3553}
{"en": "There is no point in trying to win the hearts and minds of major drug traffickers.", "zh": "试图赢得主要毒贩的欢心是没有用处的。", "index": 3554}
{"en": "Farmers are a different story.", "zh": "农民们则另当别论。", "index": 3555}
{"en": "Forced eradication risks pushing farmers into the hands of extremists, and thus will not lead to the sustainable reduction of opium fields.", "zh": "强制毁田有可能把农民们逼入极端份子手中，从而不会导致鸦片地可持续的减少。", "index": 3556}
{"en": "Indeed, as we have seen in some Andean countries, it can be counter-productive.", "zh": "实际上，正如我们在某些安达斯国家所见到的那样，这样做可能会适得其反。", "index": 3557}
{"en": "Therefore, security and development must go hand in hand.", "zh": "因此，安全和发展必须并举。", "index": 3558}
{"en": "To achieve this, Afghanistan needs more development assistance.", "zh": "为了实现这一目标，阿富汗需要更多的国际援助。", "index": 3559}
{"en": "International support so far has been generous, but it is still well below per capita equivalents for other post-conflict situations – and the need is much greater.", "zh": "目前为止，国际支持是慷慨的，但是，还是远远低于其他战后形势的人均水平，而且，需求更大。", "index": 3560}
{"en": "Farmers will be weaned off opium over the long term only if they have sustainable livelihoods.", "zh": "农民们只有具备了可以持久的生计才能长久地脱离鸦���。", "index": 3561}
{"en": "At the moment, Afghanistan’s drug lords are prospering, and rural communities are suffering.", "zh": "目前，阿富汗的大毒枭们为所欲为，而农村社区则奄奄一息。", "index": 3562}
{"en": "That situation needs to be reversed.", "zh": "这一局面必须得到扭转。", "index": 3563}
{"en": "We must punish the traffickers and reward the farmers.", "zh": "我们必须惩治毒贩而奖励农民。", "index": 3564}
{"en": "We cannot afford to fail in Afghanistan.", "zh": "我们无法在阿富汗失败。", "index": 3565}
{"en": "Recent history has given us graphic evidence of what would happen if we do.", "zh": "最近的历史生动地告诉我们失败的结局是什么。", "index": 3566}
{"en": "But any solution in Afghanistan depends on eliminating its opium.", "zh": "但是，任何阿富汗的解决之道都取决于消除其鸦片。", "index": 3567}
{"en": "Afghanistan’s Terrorized Women", "zh": "暴力威胁下的阿富汗妇女", "index": 3568}
{"en": "KABUL – Recently, the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) office in Kudoz province reported the rescue of a young woman who had been imprisoned in her in-laws’ dungeon for seven months.", "zh": "发自喀布尔 — — 最近阿富汗独立人权委员会（AIHRC）在库都兹省（Kudoz）的办事处报告了一起营救事件。", "index": 3569}
{"en": "Fifteen-year-old Sahar Gul was forced to marry an older man who serves in the Afghan army. She was then kept in the dungeon by her husband’s family and brutally tortured for months, because she refused to work as a prostitute.", "zh": "年仅15岁的莎哈尔·古尔（Sahar Gul）先是被迫嫁给一名年纪比她大的阿富汗军人，随后又被夫家人强迫卖淫，她不从，于是就被锁在地牢里残酷虐待了整整七年，直至被营救出来。", "index": 3570}
{"en": "Over the past ten years, the AIHRC has received more than 19,000 complaints related to violence against women.", "zh": "在过去十年间，委员会收到了超过1.9万件与虐待妇女有关的申诉。", "index": 3571}
{"en": "Despite making some progress in investigating the complaints and referring them to the justice system, as well as in raising public awareness about the issue, the challenges remain huge.", "zh": "尽管在调查这些申诉并移交司法机关的提升了公众对该事务关注度方面取得了一些进展，但我们所面对的挑战依然非常艰巨。", "index": 3572}
{"en": "Since 2002, many efforts have been made to improve women’s lives in Afghanistan.", "zh": "自2002年以来，各界在改善阿富汗妇女待遇方面作出了许多努力。", "index": 3573}
{"en": "The country has enacted several new laws and established a fairly advanced legal framework to end discrimination against women, including a new law that criminalizes any act that results in violence against women.", "zh": "国家也颁布了一系列新法并建立了一个相当先进的法律框架来结束对妇女的歧视，其中包括一部能将任何针对妇女的暴力行为定罪的法律。", "index": 3574}
{"en": "But laws and policies alone are not sufficient to protect women from horrific domestic abuse.", "zh": "但仅靠法律和政策并不足以保护妇女免遭残酷的家族虐待行为。", "index": 3575}
{"en": "Indeed, the Gul case is hardly the only well-publicized case.", "zh": "事实上，上面那宗案件只不过是曝光率最高的一个。", "index": 3576}
{"en": "There was also Gulnaz, a young woman who was jailed for adultery after being raped by a relative (she was recently released after a presidential pardon, but may be forced to marry her attacker).", "zh": "还有一名叫古尔纳兹（Gulnaz）的年轻妇女在遭到亲戚强奸之后竟以通奸罪名入狱（虽然她最近得到总统特赦，但仍可能被迫要和强奸者结婚 ） 。", "index": 3577}
{"en": "The husband of another young woman, Aisha, cut off her nose and ears when she ran away.", "zh": "而另一位叫阿莎的妇女试图从家里逃走，却被其夫捉回来残忍地割掉了鼻子和双耳。", "index": 3578}
{"en": "Violence against women in Afghanistan persists for many reasons. First, the country has inherited a patriarchal tribal tradition that assumes women’s inferiority.", "zh": "而针对妇女的暴力行为之所以在阿富汗屡禁不止，是由许多原因的：首先，该国继承了一个男权部落传统，认为女性就是低人一等，并因此剥夺了女性的基本权利和自由。", "index": 3579}
{"en": "Second, there is a strong political incentive to deprive women of their rights.", "zh": "其次，在政治上也存在强大的诱因去剥夺女性的权利。", "index": 3580}
{"en": "Radical groups receive immense support from the large share of the population that opposes women’s rights.", "zh": "有极大数量的民众反对给于妇女权利，而这些人同时又为那些极端组织提供了强大的支持。", "index": 3581}
{"en": "The Taliban, for example, have consistently used an anti-women policy to appeal to tribal and rural people.", "zh": "例如塔利班组织就一直利用一套压制妇女的政策来吸引部落和农村地区的民众。", "index": 3582}
{"en": "Third, family pride and honor are deemed more important than a woman’s individual well-being and safety.", "zh": "第三，有些人把家族荣誉看得比妇女个人的幸福和安全更加重要。", "index": 3583}
{"en": "For example, if family members beat or abuse a woman, she has few options.", "zh": "如果其他家庭成员虐打了家族中的一名妇女，她有几个选项。", "index": 3584}
{"en": "Often, her only choice is to remain silent or risk disgracing the family.", "zh": "一般情况下，她只能在忍气吞声和令家族蒙羞之间选择。", "index": 3585}
{"en": "If she does report the matter to the authorities, the case will almost certainly never be properly investigated, nor the perpetrators ever prosecuted.", "zh": "如果该名妇女把情况报告给了当局，这个案件几乎不会被认真调查，施暴者也不会被起诉。", "index": 3586}
{"en": "Gul, for example, complained to the police about her abusive in-laws, but she was returned to the family when some of their influential contacts intervened.", "zh": "比方说在古尔一案中，古尔将自己所遭受的暴行报告给了警察，谁知在夫家认识的某些权势人物介入后，警察竟又把她送回了夫家。", "index": 3587}
{"en": "Fourth, laws are often arbitrarily applied, and sharia (Islamic law) frequently takes precedence over civil legislation, resulting in widespread impunity for crimes of violence against women.", "zh": "其四，法律往往无法得到彻底执行，伊斯兰教法又经常凌驾于民法之上，使得那些针对妇女的暴力或罪行得以逍遥法外。", "index": 3588}
{"en": "For example, in October 2010, the Afghan Supreme Court ruled that women who run away from home can be charged with prostitution, unless they go to the police or an immediate relative's home. It is this mindset that led to Gul’s victimization.", "zh": "例如2010年10月阿富汗最高法院裁定：除非前往警察局或者直系亲属的家，否则逃离家庭的妇女将以卖淫罪论处。", "index": 3589}
{"en": "Finally, while the Taliban lost power ten years ago, discrimination and violence against women has occurred in Afghan society for centuries.", "zh": "最后，当塔利班政权在十年前倒台之时，对妇女的歧视和暴力已经在阿富汗存在了几个世纪之久。", "index": 3590}
{"en": "Thus, despite some progress, public and official sensitivity to violence against women is only slowly emerging.", "zh": "尽管目前取得了一些进步，公众和官方对这些事件的敏感度也只是缓慢建立之中。", "index": 3591}
{"en": "The Afghan government must take several steps to protect women fully.", "zh": "因此阿富汗政府必须采取一系列步骤去彻底保护妇女权益。", "index": 3592}
{"en": "Above all, perpetrators of violence against women should be prosecuted and tried under due process of law.", "zh": "其中最重要的莫过于要将这些针对妇女的暴力行为予以起诉并在恰当的法律程序下进行审判。", "index": 3593}
{"en": "This will require strengthening the rule of law and ending the prevailing culture of impunity.", "zh": "这就要求强化法治并消灭当前这种有罪不纠的文化。", "index": 3594}
{"en": "That, in turn, requires educating the public further about human rights and women’s rights through school textbooks, continuing education courses, and a vigorous media campaign.", "zh": "这反过来要求通过教科书，继续教育课程和大型媒体宣传活动来进一步向公众传达关于人权和妇女权利的知识。", "index": 3595}
{"en": "It also requires persuading representatives and policymakers to develop policies and allocate budget revenues to combat violence against women, and training police and judges to handle cases of violence against women without deferring to claims of family honor.", "zh": "同时也需要说服民意代表和政策制定者们去制定相关政策并拨出预算来打击暴力虐待妇女的行为，训练警察和法官摒除所谓家族荣誉的影响，秉公处理相关案件。", "index": 3596}
{"en": "Perhaps most importantly, non-constitutional justice systems, such as sharia, must be monitored and checked, if not prohibited altogether.", "zh": "而或许更重要的是，要么将类似伊斯兰教法这样的非宪政司法系统全面禁止，要么对其进行检讨和修订。", "index": 3597}
{"en": "As for Sahar Gul, her case must be thoroughly investigated, and the police and judiciary must commit to bringing her torturers to justice.", "zh": "对于莎哈尔·古尔来说，她的案件必须得到彻查，警察和法官必须尽全力将那些虐待她的人绳之于法。", "index": 3598}
{"en": "Furthermore, Gul’s case, and others like it, should be studied in order to understand the roots of such crimes.", "zh": "此外也必须对这些案件进行研究以辨清这类犯罪的根源。", "index": 3599}
{"en": "Until Afghanistan’s leaders begin to address this problem seriously, our country will continue to bear the scar of violence against women on its face.", "zh": "除非阿富汗领导人们开始认真处理这个问题，否则我们这个国家将继续因虐待妇女的罪行而蒙羞。", "index": 3600}
{"en": "A Flat World and a Round Ball", "zh": "平面世界和圆的足球", "index": 3601}
{"en": "With the final stage of the World Cup approaching, now is a good opportunity for a mid-tournament appraisal.", "zh": "世界杯最后阶段的比赛正在临近，现在是作出赛中评论的好时机。", "index": 3602}
{"en": "This year’s Cup, unlike the previous one in Japan and South Korea in 2002, didn’t witness any real upsets in the first round.", "zh": "今年的世界杯与2002年上一届韩日世界杯不同，并没有在第一轮出现大冷门。", "index": 3603}
{"en": "Switzerland and Australia surprisingly reached the elimination round, and the Asian and African teams disappointed somewhat, with only Ghana advancing.", "zh": "瑞士和澳大利亚进入十六强令人惊讶，而亚洲和非洲球队则多少令人失望，只有加纳队晋级。", "index": 3604}
{"en": "There have been just two ugly matches so far, full of fouls, nasty attacks, and unnecessary aggression, as well as numerous yellow and red cards: Italy vs. the US, and Portugal vs. the Netherlands.", "zh": "目前为止，只有两场比赛，也就是意大利对美国和葡萄牙对荷兰丑陋不堪，充满犯规、下流的攻击、毫无必要的侵犯以及漫天飞舞的红黄牌。", "index": 3605}
{"en": "Otherwise, we’re experiencing a wonderful Cup in Germany, in terms of both sportsmanship and the overall atmosphere.", "zh": "否则，我们正在体验一届无论是从体育角度还是整体气氛都是美妙的德国世界杯。", "index": 3606}
{"en": "As for Germany and the Germans, one hardly recognizes one’s own country and people.", "zh": "至于德国和德国人，人们几乎不认识自己的国家和同胞。", "index": 3607}
{"en": "Even Mother Nature has played along.", "zh": "即使是大自然母亲也随人意。", "index": 3608}
{"en": "After a long winter and a non-existent spring, summer started promptly with the first kick-off – and virtually overnight, Germany has flaunted its sunniest and most delightful side.", "zh": "经过了漫长的冬天和稍纵即逝的春天后，随着首场比赛的开始，夏天即刻来临，而且几乎是一夜之间，德国呈现了最为阳光明媚和快乐的一面。", "index": 3609}
{"en": "The weather is Mediterranean, and all of a sudden, so are the people.", "zh": "天气是地中海式的，而且连人也奔放。", "index": 3610}
{"en": "The Cup’s organization has been exceptional (as was to be expected), with excellent police work giving hooligans hardly a chance.", "zh": "本届世界杯赛的组织工作是出类拔萃的（正如预料的一样 ） ， 警方的出色工作让足球流氓们无计可施。", "index": 3611}
{"en": "The whole of Germany has been celebrating a never-ending party with guests from all over the world (which was not expected).", "zh": "德国全国都在与来自五湖四海的宾客们一道庆贺这场不散的聚会（这是没有预料到的 ） 。", "index": 3612}
{"en": "And the German team has put on a wonderful display of heart warming and modern offensive soccer (which nobody could have expected!).", "zh": "而德国队则展现了令人暖人心的现代攻势足球（这是没有人预料到的！ ） 。", "index": 3613}
{"en": "More importantly, not only in the German team, but also in the country as a whole, a young, cool, laid-back, and carefree Germany is raising its head – a Germany that is cosmopolitan, friendly, and good-humored.", "zh": "更为重要的是，不仅仅是德国足球队，而且是整个国家都在以一个年轻、帅气、悠闲以及无忧无虑形象昂首阔步，也就是汇纳百川、友善以及风趣幽默。", "index": 3614}
{"en": "Years of bad news appear to have passed the Germans by without a trace.", "zh": "多年来的坏消息看起来已经过去，没有给德国留下痕迹。", "index": 3615}
{"en": "Doctors are on strike, taxes are on the rise, the parties in government are mauling each other, and Chancellor Angela Merkel herself proclaimed in a prominent speech that the country is in disastrous shape.", "zh": "医生正在罢工，纳税正在上升，联合政府的各党派在相互抨击，德国总理默克尔本人则在一场重要演讲中宣称国家大事不好。", "index": 3616}
{"en": "But the Germans, undaunted by it all, simply keep celebrating one great soccer party with their newfound friends from all over the world.", "zh": "但是，德国民众对此毫无兴趣，只是继续和来自五湖四海新结交的朋友们一道庆贺这一足球盛会。", "index": 3617}
{"en": "The black, red, and gold German tricolor adorns the entire country as never before, but almost nowhere are there nationalist undertones.", "zh": "德国国旗的三色黑、红和金色从来没有像现在这样在全国到处飘扬，但是，没有地方出现民族主义的意味。", "index": 3618}
{"en": "In fact, the flags of many nations fly alongside German.", "zh": "实际上，许多国家的旗帜与德国国旗一同飘扬。", "index": 3619}
{"en": "In Berlin, as in other large German cities, taxis sport the flags of their drivers’ home countries – from Angola to Saudi Arabia.", "zh": "在柏林以及其他德国大城市，可以看到出租车司机们展现祖国的国旗，从安哥拉一直到沙特阿拉伯。", "index": 3620}
{"en": "Fans don not just their nations’ flags, but also fantastic costumes evocative of their home countries’ colors.", "zh": "世界各地的球迷们不仅披上他们的国旗，也披上他们各自国家颜色鲜艳的服饰。", "index": 3621}
{"en": "Flags are flown in hope of victory, but also serve to dry the tears of defeat.", "zh": "挥舞国旗是为了报有胜利的希望，也是为了摸去国家队被击败的泪水。", "index": 3622}
{"en": "In short, Germany during the World Cup is reminiscent of a Shakespearean midsummer night’s dream, with a touch of Woodstock to boot.", "zh": "总而言之，世界杯期间的德国让人想起了莎士比亚的仲夏夜之梦，还有伍德斯托克音乐节的气氛。", "index": 3623}
{"en": "Outside the stadiums, public screenings of the games have become joyous mass “happenings.”", "zh": "在足球场外，大屏幕的比赛转播已经成为巨大的球迷欢乐“事件 ” 。", "index": 3624}
{"en": "And how is the soccer?", "zh": "那么足球本身又如何呢？", "index": 3625}
{"en": "This World Cup demonstrates three main developments that the sport has undergone.", "zh": "本届世界杯展现了足球运动所经历的三种主要发展趋势。", "index": 3626}
{"en": "First, Europe and South America are more dominant than four years ago and remain the unchallenged great powers of international soccer.", "zh": "第一，欧洲和南美球队要比四年以前更为占据优势，而且保持为国际足球中无可挑战的大国。", "index": 3627}
{"en": "So we must hope that the World Cup in South Africa in 2010 will finally bring greater global parity.", "zh": "所以，我们必须希望2010年的南非世界杯将最终带来更大的全球性的强手林立。", "index": 3628}
{"en": "Second, international soccer is witnessing the advent of a new generation.", "zh": "第二，国际足球正在见证新的一代的来临。", "index": 3629}
{"en": "Spain, Argentina, and Germany, to name but a few countries, have put forward very young teams that have played an impressive game.", "zh": "西班牙、阿根廷以及德国推出了非常年轻的球队，令人印象深刻。 这些只是其中一些队伍。", "index": 3630}
{"en": "On the French, English, and Portuguese teams, too, it is the young players that have shone – despite the continuing presence of Zidane, Beckham, and Figo.", "zh": "尽管齐达内、贝克汉姆以及菲哥仍在场上，法国、英国以及葡萄牙队的年轻队员也夺人耳目。", "index": 3631}
{"en": "Even the Brazilian squad is looking more aggressive and likely to score with young players like Robinho and Juninho than with their aging champions from 2002.", "zh": "巴西也看起来更加富有攻势，罗比尼奥和儒尼奥尔也比2002年以来正在老迈的冠军们更有可能进球。", "index": 3632}
{"en": "This generational change is accelerated by a third development.", "zh": "这一世代改变由于第三个进展而加快进行。", "index": 3633}
{"en": "At the top international level, soccer has become faster and more athletic, and the top teams can shrink space on the field more effectively.", "zh": "在国际水平的顶级，足球变得更快，更加要求运动性，顶级球队更为有效地压缩球场空间。", "index": 3634}
{"en": "A team that is unable to keep going at full speed for the full 90 (or more) minutes, switch from defense to offense quickly with the whole team, and maintain control of the ball to restrict their opponents' movements won’t stand much of a chance.", "zh": "一支球队如果无法在90分钟甚至更长的时间里保持全速，迅速从防守转向进攻，并且控球限制对手的运动，那么就不会在顶级水平立足。", "index": 3635}
{"en": "Here, soccer parallels today’s globalized markets, which make similar restructuring of national economies necessary.", "zh": "在这里，人们可以在足球和当今全球化的市场进程之间有相似的地方。 由于全球化的市场，各国经济类似的重组十分必要。", "index": 3636}
{"en": "Unlike economic globalization, however, it remains to be seen whether this new, fast-paced style of soccer will prevail (after all, the young blood of Spain lost to the Old Boys of France).", "zh": "但是，与经济全球化不同的是，这一新的、快节奏足球是否能够获胜还有待观察（毕竟，血气方刚的西班牙输给了老迈的法国 ） 。", "index": 3637}
{"en": "The sport and its fans will certainly profit if it does.", "zh": "体育和球迷肯定都会获益匪浅。", "index": 3638}
{"en": "For now, we have a World Cup filled with soccer that is being shaped by a new, young generation both on and off the playing field – light-hearted, enthralling, and beautiful to watch.", "zh": "现在，这是一届由新的年轻一代在场上场下塑造的世界杯，这一代人轻松愉快、令人着迷而且美丽动人。", "index": 3639}
{"en": "Let’s hope that when the last whistle blows at the final in Berlin on July 9, we Germans retain as much of this positive spirit as possible.", "zh": "让我们希望，当7月9日决赛哨音在柏林吹响的时候，我们德国人能够保持尽可能多的这种精神。", "index": 3640}
{"en": "Germany urgently needs this kind of optimism, because, unfortunately, two universal principles will continue to apply in the future: first, the winter will return, and, second, the ball is round and the next game is always the most difficult.", "zh": "德国急需这种乐观精神，因为，不幸的是，两项原则在未来依然有效：第一，冬天将会回来；第二，足球是圆的，下一场比赛总是最艰巨的。", "index": 3641}
{"en": "A Free Lunch for America", "zh": "美国的免费午餐", "index": 3642}
{"en": "BERKELEY – Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had a good line at the International Monetary Fund meetings this year: governments, he said, are trying to treat a broken ankle when the patient is facing organ failure.", "zh": "伯克利 — — 前美国财政部长萨默斯（Lawrence Summers）在今年的IMF会议上颇有想象力：他说，各国政府的做法，就好比是病人明明是脏器问题，却在给他治脚踝。", "index": 3643}
{"en": "Summers was criticizing Europe’s focus on the second-order issue of Greece while far graver imbalances – between the EU’s north and south, and between reckless banks’ creditors and governments that failed to regulate properly – worsen with each passing day.", "zh": "萨默斯是在批评欧洲将注意力集中在希腊问题这样的次要问题上，而更危险的失衡 — — 北欧和南欧之间的失衡、鲁莽银行债权人与监管不力的政府之间的失衡 — — 却在一天比一天更严重。", "index": 3644}
{"en": "But, on the other side of the Atlantic, Americans have no reason to feel smug.", "zh": "但在大西洋的另一边，美国人就找不到任何自命不凡的理由了。", "index": 3645}
{"en": "Summers could have used the same metaphor to criticize the United States, where the continued focus on the long-run funding dilemmas of social insurance is sucking all of the oxygen out of efforts to deal with America’s macroeconomic and unemployment crisis.", "zh": "萨默斯的比方同样可以用来形容美国 — — 美国人一直把焦点放在社保的长期筹资困境上，而对美国宏观经济和失业危机视而不见。", "index": 3646}
{"en": "The US government can currently borrow for 30 years at a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate of 1% per year.", "zh": "当前，美国政府的30年债务真实（经通胀调整的）利率为每年1 % 。", "index": 3647}
{"en": "Suppose that the US government were to borrow an extra $500 billion over the next two years and spend it on infrastructure – even unproductively, on projects for which the social rate of return is a measly 25% per year.", "zh": "假设未来两年美国政府多借5000亿美元，并将这笔钱用于基础设施建设 — — 即使这些投资并非生产性的，其社会回报率只有每年25 % 。", "index": 3648}
{"en": "Suppose that – as seems to be the case – the simple Keynesian government-expenditure multiplier on this spending is only two.", "zh": "假设 — — 目前看来正是如此 — — 简单凯恩斯政府支出乘数 为2。", "index": 3649}
{"en": "In that case, the $500 billion of extra federal infrastructure spending over the next two years would produce $1 trillion of extra output of goods and services, generate approximately seven million person-years of extra employment, and push down the unemployment rate by two percentage points in each of those years.", "zh": "这样，未来两年5000亿美元的额外联邦基础设施支出将产生1万亿美元的额外商品和服务产出，创造大约700万人年的额外就业机会，将每年的失业率降低2个百分点。", "index": 3650}
{"en": "And, with tighter labor-force attachment on the part of those who have jobs, the unemployment rate thereafter would likely be about 0.1 percentage points lower in the indefinite future.", "zh": "此外，随着就业人口的劳动力附着效应收紧，失业率将在无穷期的未来中下降0.1个百分点。", "index": 3651}
{"en": "The impressive gains don’t stop there.", "zh": "可观的好处还不仅于此。", "index": 3652}
{"en": "Better infrastructure would mean an extra $20 billion a year of income and social welfare.", "zh": "更好的基础设施将意味着每年多产生200亿美元的收入和社会财富。", "index": 3653}
{"en": "A lower unemployment rate into the future would mean another $20 billion a year in higher production.", "zh": "未来更低的失业率将意味着年产量提高200亿美元。", "index": 3654}
{"en": "And half of the extra $1 trillion of goods and services would show up as consumption goods and services for American households.", "zh": "而额外产生的1万亿美元商品和服务中有一半会表现为美国家庭的消费品和服务。", "index": 3655}
{"en": "In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter.", "zh": "总结一下好处：提高现在的就业率、未来2年内产生5000亿美元额外商品和服务消费、此后每年400亿美元的额外收入流和产量增加。", "index": 3656}
{"en": "So, what are the likely costs of an extra $500 billion in infrastructure spending over the next two years?", "zh": "那么，未来两年内增加5000亿美元基础设施支出的潜在成本又是多少呢？", "index": 3657}
{"en": "For starters, the $500 billion of extra government spending would likely be offset by $300 billion of increased tax collections from higher economic activity.", "zh": "首先，5000亿美元额外政府支出可以用税收增加额抵消3000亿，这笔税收增量来自更高的经济活跃度。", "index": 3658}
{"en": "So the net result would be a $200 billion increase in the national debt.", "zh": "因此净结果是国民债务水平将上升2000亿美元。", "index": 3659}
{"en": "American taxpayers would then have to pay $2 billion a year in real interest on that extra national debt over the next 30 years, and then pay off or roll over the entire $200 billion.", "zh": "美国纳税人因此必须在未来30年内为这笔增加的债务付出每年20亿美元的真是利息，然后偿付2000亿美元本金或将债务展期。", "index": 3660}
{"en": "The $40 billion a year of higher economic activity would, however, generate roughly $10 billion a year in additional tax revenue.", "zh": "但是，经济活动每年提高400亿美元会产生大约100亿美元的额外税收收入。", "index": 3661}
{"en": "Using some of it to pay the real interest on the debt and saving the rest would mean that when the bill comes due, the tax-financed reserves generated by the healthier economy would be more than enough to pay off the additional national debt.", "zh": "用其中的一部分来支付债务的真是利息，并将剩余部分储蓄起来，这样，在债务到期时，由更健康的经济所产生的来自税收的储备将足以偿清增加的国民债务。", "index": 3662}
{"en": "In other words, taxpayers win, because the benefits from the healthier economy would more than compensate for the costs of servicing the higher national debt, enabling the government to provide more services without raising tax rates.", "zh": "换句话说，纳税人将是赢家，因为更健康的经济所带来的好处将补偿增加国民债务的利息成本而有余，从而使政府有能力在不提高税率的情况下提供更多的服务。", "index": 3663}
{"en": "Households win, too, because they get to buy more and nicer things with their incomes.", "zh": "企业也是赢家，因为商品和工人将能够使用改善的基础设施。", "index": 3664}
{"en": "Companies win, because goods and workers get to use the improved infrastructure.", "zh": "失业者也是赢家，因为不少人将得到工作。", "index": 3665}
{"en": "The unemployed win, because some of them get jobs. And even bond investors win, because they get their money back, with the interest for which they contracted.", "zh": "甚至债券投资者也是赢家，因为他们拿回了借出去的钱，而且还获得合同中规定的利息。", "index": 3666}
{"en": "So what is not to like?", "zh": "有什么不好的地方吗？", "index": 3667}
{"en": "Nothing.", "zh": "没有。", "index": 3668}
{"en": "How, you might ask, can I say this?", "zh": "你也许会问，我为什么这样说？", "index": 3669}
{"en": "I am an economist – a professor of the Dismal Science, in which there are no free lunches, in which benefits are always balanced by costs, and in which stories that sound too good to be true almost inevitably are.", "zh": "我可是个经济学家，这个“沉闷科学”的教授，在经济学看来，天下没有免费的午餐，有好处就必有相应的成本，那些听起来难以置信的好事几乎无一例外真的不是好事。", "index": 3670}
{"en": "But there are two things different about today.", "zh": "但今天的情况有两点不同。", "index": 3671}
{"en": "First, the US labor market is failing so badly that expanded government spending carries no resource cost to society as a whole.", "zh": "首先，美国劳动力市场出现了大失灵，以至于扩张的政府支出不会给作为一个整体的社会带来资源成本。", "index": 3672}
{"en": "Second, bond investors are being really stupid.", "zh": "其次，债券投资者在现实中是很愚蠢的。", "index": 3673}
{"en": "In a world in which the S&P 500 has a 7% annual earnings yield, nobody should be happy holding a US government 30-year inflation-adjusted bond that yields 1% per year.", "zh": "如今，标普500指数可以产生7%的年收益，因此理应无人问津美国政府的30年经通胀调整的债券 — — 收益率只有每年1 % 。", "index": 3674}
{"en": "That six-percentage-point difference in anticipated real yield is a measure of bond investors’ extraordinary and irrational panic.", "zh": "这6个百分点的预期真实收益率差额便是债券投资者不同寻常的非理性恐慌的写照。", "index": 3675}
{"en": "They are willing to pay 6% per year for “safety.”", "zh": "他们愿意为“安全”付出每年6%的利息。", "index": 3676}
{"en": "Right now, however, the US government can manufacture “safety” out of thin air merely by printing bonds.", "zh": "不过，眼下��国政府可以仅凭印债券创造“安全 ” 。", "index": 3677}
{"en": "The government, too, would then win by pocketing that 6% per year of value – though 30 years from now, bondholders who feel like winners now would most likely look at their portfolios’ extraordinarily poor performance of over 2011-2041 and rue their strategy.", "zh": "于是，政府也是赢家，它可以在未来30年内将每年6%的价值收入囊中。 那些现在自视为赢家的债券持有者很可能会在2011—2041年期间看到自己的投资组合表现奇差无比，为现在的策略后悔不迭。", "index": 3678}
{"en": "A French Presidential Primer", "zh": "法国总统引言", "index": 3679}
{"en": "The late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson used to quip that “a week is a long time in politics.”", "zh": "前英国首相哈罗德·威尔逊曾经说过 ， “ 从政治角度讲一个星期称得上是漫长的时光 ” 。", "index": 3680}
{"en": "So, in the 30 or so weeks between now and the next French presidential election, any prediction made today could be reversed, and reversed again, before the vote.", "zh": "因此，从现在开始到下一次法国总统大选到来之前的30多个星期里，今天所做的任何预测都有可能在投票前发生逆转、再发生逆转。", "index": 3681}
{"en": "But two candidates have emerged as clear and constant favorites in opinion polls: Nicolas Sarkozy on the right and Ségolène Royal on the left.", "zh": "但民意调查中有两位候选人一直遥遥领先：他们是右翼候选人尼古拉·萨尔柯齐(Nicolas Sarkozy)和左翼人士赛格莱娜·罗亚尔（Ségolène Royal ） 。", "index": 3682}
{"en": "In fact, they have more in common than meets the eye, for each speaks of a rupture with the past while incarnating a form of continuity.", "zh": "实际上，他们除了引人注目之外还有其他共同之处，那就是两个人都提出要与过去决裂，但同时要体现出某种形式的继承。", "index": 3683}
{"en": "For Sarkozy, “rupture” reflects both mundanely tactical and deeply personal choices.", "zh": "对萨尔柯齐来讲 ， “ 决裂”既反映了世俗的技巧，也是深层次的个人选择。", "index": 3684}
{"en": "The 12 years of Jacques Chirac‘s presidency, together with France’s tradition of alternation in power, suggests a victory for the left.", "zh": "雅克·希拉克（Jacques Chirac）12年执政，以及法国领导层变动的传统，都表明胜利属于左翼党派。", "index": 3685}
{"en": "Positioning himself as the candidate who represents a sharp break with today’s unpopular politics is the only means to escape that fate.", "zh": "将自己定位成与今天不受欢迎的政治决裂的候选人是避免厄运的唯一出路。", "index": 3686}
{"en": "This is reflected in Sarkozy’s openly pro-American stance – an act of political courage in a France where anti-Americanism is running high.", "zh": "这在萨尔柯齐公开的亲美立场中有所反映¾在今天反美主义甚嚣尘上的法国，采取这样的立场需要很大的政治勇气。", "index": 3687}
{"en": "Sarkozy’s message is that Chirac and Villepin were right in substance to oppose America’s military adventure in Iraq, but that their style was disastrously wrong.", "zh": "萨尔柯齐的立场是希拉克和维尔潘反对美国军事入侵伊拉克在实质上并没有错，但在形式上却错得一塌糊涂。", "index": 3688}
{"en": "Thus, his deep admiration for “American values,” while sincere, implies no embrace of President George W. Bush.", "zh": "因此，他对“美国价值观”的深层崇拜尽管是真心流露，但却不意味着乔治·W·布什总统的所作所为能得到赞同。", "index": 3689}
{"en": "It also reassures the French business community, which was shocked by Dominique de Villepin’s flamboyant opposition to the United States when he was Chirac’s foreign minister.", "zh": "萨尔柯齐的立场还给法国企业界人士吃下了定心丸，这些企业家被多米尼克·德维尔潘担任希拉克外长时与美国的公然对抗吓出一身冷汗。", "index": 3690}
{"en": "At home, Sarkozy has aimed his message particularly at the young, issuing a patriotic call to the values of work and discipline, a counter-revolutionary revolution.", "zh": "在内政方面，萨尔柯齐把重点放在了青年人身上，力求唤起他们的爱国热情，建立勤于工作和遵纪守法的价值观，这是一场反对革命的革命。", "index": 3691}
{"en": "The revolution that must be overcome is that of May 1968, whose leaders and supporters, according to Sarkozy, may have lost politically to de Gaulle, but deeply weakened France over the succeeding decades with their emphasis on “false values.”", "zh": "必须杜绝1968年5月革命那样的灾难，因为在萨尔柯齐看来，这场革命的领导者和支持者或许在政治上输给了戴高乐，但他们所强调的“错误价值观”却在接下来的几十年内大大削弱了法国的力量。", "index": 3692}
{"en": "By contrast, rebelling against one’s parents’ generation and rediscovering traditional moral stances will save France – a message that is highly applicable to issues, such as education and immigration, that may dominate the electoral campaign.", "zh": "与此形成鲜明对照的是，反对父母那一代的观点，重新发掘传统的道德准则能够拯救法国¾这样的观点对教育和移民等问题都大有裨益，而上述问题在竞选活动中占据了主导地位。", "index": 3693}
{"en": "In the case of Royal, the meaning of “rupture” is both more obvious and more visible.", "zh": "在罗亚尔看来 ， “ 决裂”的含义更加明确和清晰。", "index": 3694}
{"en": "She is seeking to become the first woman President of the French Republic.", "zh": "她试图成为法兰西共和国历史上首位女性总统。", "index": 3695}
{"en": "To achieve her goal, she prefers to emphasize her “essence,” thereby countering Sarkozy’s stress on his record as a “doer.”", "zh": "为了达到这一目的，她更愿意强调自己的“本质 ” ， 并以此来对抗萨尔柯齐的所谓“实干家”履历。", "index": 3696}
{"en": "Her appeal to voters is simple: “I am a woman, and you have never tried a woman, so be modern and try one now.”", "zh": "她吸引选民的口号非常简单 ： “ 我是个女人，你们从来没选过女总统，现在就应该跟上潮流，试试女总统的执政能力。 ”", "index": 3697}
{"en": "Hiding behind the originality (in French presidential politics) of her gender, Royal has avoided specifying a detailed program.", "zh": "躲在其性别（在法国总统政治中）的原创性背后，罗亚尔一直闪烁其辞，不愿说明详细的施政计划。", "index": 3698}
{"en": "When challenged by inquisitive journalists demanding greater precision about her policy agenda, her highly effective line of defense (so far!) has been: “You would not dare to ask me such a question if I were not a woman!”", "zh": "当喜爱刨根问底的记者对她的政治安排的细节提出质疑的时候，她最有效的防御手段（至少到目前为止）是 ： “ 如果我不是位女性，你根本就不敢提出这样的问题！ ”", "index": 3699}
{"en": "Thus, Royal’s program is her popularity.", "zh": "于是，人气就成了罗亚尔的法宝。", "index": 3700}
{"en": "In foreign policy, one can only guess what her priorities would be.", "zh": "我们只能猜想她在外交上将做出何种安排。", "index": 3701}
{"en": "As far as Europe is concerned, she seems as “agnostic” as Sarkozy, who, like her, incarnates a new generation of “post-European” leaders.", "zh": "在欧洲问题上，她似乎和萨尔柯齐一样讳莫如深，而后者和她一样，是新一代“后欧洲”领袖人物的代表。", "index": 3702}
{"en": "In terms of values, Royal, too, seems to represent a rupture with May 1968, with her emphasis on discipline and family.", "zh": "在价值观方面，罗亚尔似乎也提倡与1968年5月革命决裂，而她着重强调的是法纪和家庭。", "index": 3703}
{"en": "According to public opinion polls, Royal is the clear favorite of the left and the only candidate able to defeat Sarkozy.", "zh": "民意测验的结果显示，罗亚尔显然受到左翼党派的青睐，是唯一有可能击败萨尔柯齐的候选人。", "index": 3704}
{"en": "Her support is particularly strong among women voters.", "zh": "女性选民对她的支持尤为热烈。", "index": 3705}
{"en": "For the Socialist Party, which is eager to return to power but has not yet recovered from the humiliating defeat of Lionel Jospin in the first round of the presidential election in 2002, the question is whether it can afford to resist the wave of favorable public opinion behind Royal.", "zh": "对于急于重新当选而又尚未从2002年利昂内尔·若斯潘（Lionel Jospin）首轮选举即惨遭淘汰的屈辱经历中恢复元气的社会党来说，真正的问题在于它是否敢于对抗罗亚尔身后民意支持的洪流。", "index": 3706}
{"en": "In the opinion of Royal’s many opponents among Socialist leaders and militants, the dominance of the media in the political process is leading to mediocrity: the qualities required to be elected are becoming nearly incompatible with those needed to govern.", "zh": "在社会党和军界中罗亚尔的许多反对者看来，政治过程中媒体的主导地位已经导致政治日渐平庸：当选所需要的品质几乎与执政需要的品质格格不入。", "index": 3707}
{"en": "According to Royal’s Socialist critics, the “Hollywoodization” of politics from which she benefits entails a new approach in which leaders follow and followers lead.", "zh": "在罗亚尔的社会党批评者看来，令她受益匪浅的政治“好莱坞化”带来一种崭新的局面：那就是领导人哗众取宠，而普通公众反倒成了主角。", "index": 3708}
{"en": "But the same criticism can be directed at Sarkozy.", "zh": "但同样的批评也可以指向萨尔柯齐。", "index": 3709}
{"en": "Moreover, both candidates embody continuity – with Chirac’s Gaullist side for Sarkozy and with François Mitterrand for Royal – as much as rupture.", "zh": "不仅如此，两位候选人都在与过去决裂的同时，体现了政策的延续性¾萨尔柯齐���承了希拉克和戴高乐的政策，而罗亚尔则接过了弗朗索瓦·密特朗(François Mitterrand) 的社会主义衣钵。", "index": 3710}
{"en": "Royal openly claims Mitterand’s legacy as she searches for legitimacy, while Sarkozy’s rejection of Chirac’s legacy has more to do with form than substance.", "zh": "罗亚尔在确立合法地位时公开声称要继承密特朗的事业，而萨尔柯齐对希拉克证见的排斥形式要远远大于实质内容。", "index": 3711}
{"en": "To a large extent, Sarkozy can be seen as Chirac with more, whereas Royal is clearly Mitterrand with less.", "zh": "在很大程度上萨尔柯齐比希拉克更有能力，而罗亚尔则显然比密特朗逊色许多。", "index": 3712}
{"en": "When the voters decide in the spring of 2007, their choice may depend more on negative than positive considerations, as it did in 2002, when Chirac faced the odious nationalist Jean-Marie Le Pen in the second round.", "zh": "选民们在2007年春做出最后决定的时候，决定因素也许更多地来自负面、而不是正面的印象，这一点与2002年第二回合选举中希拉克面对臭名昭著的民族主义分子勒庞（Jean Marie Le Pen）时如出一辙。", "index": 3713}
{"en": "As in 2002, the winner next year will be whomever the electorate dislikes or fears less.", "zh": "与2002年时一样，明年获胜的将是选民们不那么憎恶和害怕的候选者。", "index": 3714}
{"en": "But one way or the other, personalities will prevail over programs.", "zh": "但无论是谁最终当选，有一点可以肯定，那就是个性因素将成为凌驾于政治见解之上的决定性力量。", "index": 3715}
{"en": "A Fresh Start for China and Japan?", "zh": "中日关系的新开始？", "index": 3716}
{"en": "Edmonton – Chinese President Hu Jintao will make a high-profile visit to Japan from May 6-10, making him the second Chinese head of state ever to travel there.", "zh": "埃德蒙顿 — — 中国主席胡锦涛将于5月6日至10日高调访问日本，这次访问令他成为有史以来第二位访日的中国国家主席。", "index": 3717}
{"en": "The trip is being carefully managed by both countries, and is being watched closely around the world, with good reason: Sino-Japanese relations over the past decade have been turbulent, to say the least.", "zh": "中日两国都小心谨慎地对待这次访问，世界其他国家也一直在密切关注这次访问的行程，其原因显而易见：过去10年来的中日关系一直充满了各种各样的动荡，这恐怕还是最缓和的说法。", "index": 3718}
{"en": "When Hu’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin, traveled to Japan ten years ago, bilateral relations were deteriorating: China was unhappy with the Japanese government’s refusal to extend the same apology offered to South Korea for past aggression; Japan was worried about a rising China and thus turning more confrontational.", "zh": "当胡的前任江泽民10年前访问日本时，双边关系正在迅速恶化：中国对日本政府拒绝对过去的侵略行为向中国和韩国同样致歉深感不满，而日本则对中国的崛起充满了忧虑，也因此滋长了对立情绪。", "index": 3719}
{"en": "The Japanese media’s coverage of the visit was overwhelmingly negative, and it was remembered as a public-relations disaster.", "zh": "日本媒体对那次访问进行了占据压倒优势的负面报导，而那次访问也被作为公共关系的一场灾难载入了史册。", "index": 3720}
{"en": "Hu succeeded Jiang in 2002, almost as former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was coming to power in Japan, and encouraged “New Thinking” in China’s Japan policy, which would entail moving away from historical grievances and promoting better ties.", "zh": "胡在2002年接替了江的位置，当时的前日本首相小泉纯一郎也刚刚宣誓就职，胡鼓励在中日关系中引入“全新思维 ” ， 这样也许可以远离历史的不满并促进更为健康的双边关系。", "index": 3721}
{"en": "But, instead of accepting China’s olive branch, Koizumi implemented a more nationalistic agenda, including annual visits to the Yasukuni Shine, which is regarded as a symbol of Japanese militarism by Japan’s neighbors.", "zh": "但小泉不仅没有接过中国递出的橄榄枝，相反却实行了更倾向于民族主义的政治策略，包括每年一度参拜敬国神社，而该神社在日本的邻国看来恰恰象征着日本的军国主义。", "index": 3722}
{"en": "His hard-line approach isolated Japan and angered China, leading to an outburst of anti-Japanese demonstrations in China in 2005.", "zh": "小泉的强硬路线在让日本陷入孤立的同时激怒了中国，引发了2005年的一系列反日示威。", "index": 3723}
{"en": "But both Japan and China recognize that further tension will serve neither country’s long-term interests.", "zh": "但日本和中国都已意识到：双边关系进一步紧张化不符合任何一方的长期利益。", "index": 3724}
{"en": "Koizumi’s successors, Prime Ministers Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda, have sought to engage China over the past two years, with summits in Beijing and a successful visit by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to Japan last year.", "zh": "小泉的继任者，安倍晋三和福田康夫首相，过去两年来一直试图改善与中国的关系，中日双方召开了北京峰会，而且去年中国总理温家宝的访日取得了成功。", "index": 3725}
{"en": "Hu’s trip is likely follow the example set by Wen.", "zh": "胡的访问很有可能将温的成果延续下去。", "index": 3726}
{"en": "He will emphasize common strategic interests, highlight mutual economic benefits, generate positive public opinion, and promote further exchanges.", "zh": "他将强调双方共同的战略利益，强调双边经济互惠，促进积极的公众舆论，并推动两国进一步的交流。", "index": 3727}
{"en": "Japan is not only one of China’s largest trade and investment partners, it is also the most powerful neighbor with which China wants to be on good terms, partly to showcase that China’s rise is not a threat to Asia and the rest of the world.", "zh": "日本不仅是中国最大的贸易和投资伙伴，也是中国希望与之维护友好关系的实力最强的邻居，中国这样做的部分目的是向亚洲和世界其他国家展示中国的崛起并不对任何人构成威胁。", "index": 3728}
{"en": "Japan, whose economic recovery is attributable largely to its deepening ties with China in recent years, is also eager to demonstrate that it regards China not as a threat but as an opportunity, as least in economic terms.", "zh": "而日本近年以来的经济复苏应该在很大程度上归功于与中国日益深入的关系，因此日本也急于表明，日本并没有把中国看作是一种威胁，而是一种机遇，这样的看法至少在经济领域能够成立。", "index": 3729}
{"en": "It was 30 years ago that former Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda, the father of today’s prime minister, signed a Peace and Friendship Treaty with China.", "zh": "就在30年前，现任日本首相的父亲，前任日本首相福田赳夫，与中国签订了《和平友好条约 》 。", "index": 3730}
{"en": "The two governments will certainly use Hu’s visit to celebrate the anniversary with new programs designed to enhance bilateral understanding and friendship.", "zh": "中日两国政府肯定会利用胡锦涛这次的访日契机制定旨在促进双边了解和友谊的新计划，来庆祝《条约》签订的三十周年纪念日。", "index": 3731}
{"en": "But, unlike three decades ago, when the Japanese regarded China as one of their most favored countries, public opinion in both countries nowadays registers more negative feelings than positive ones.", "zh": "但与30年前情况不同的是，当日本把中国看作最惠国之一的时候，日中两国目前的公众舆论所显示出来的负面情感却远远多于善意。", "index": 3732}
{"en": "Behind the smiles, the polite interactions, and the cautiously worded diplomatic language, strong undercurrents of suspicion remain.", "zh": "在微笑、礼貌的接触以及措辞小心翼翼的外交语言背后，仍然存在着力量强大的怀疑的暗流。", "index": 3733}
{"en": "One problem is the disputed waters of the East China Sea.", "zh": "问题之一是中国东海的争议水域。", "index": 3734}
{"en": "Despite new joint projects in energy efficiency and environmental protection, areas in which China ranks Japan as the best performer among industrialized countries, the two sides remain in bitterly divided over these territorial waters, which contain huge potential oil, gas, and other mineral deposits. Even after many rounds of talks, no resolution is in sight, and Hu’s visit is not expected to produce any breakthroughs.", "zh": "尽管在能源效率和环境保护领域开展了新的合作项目，而且中国在上述领域里把日本列为工业化国家首选的合作伙伴，但中日双方依然在地区性水域问题上存在着严重的对立，而在中日存在着严重争议的水域，很有可能蕴藏着大量的石油、天然气和其他矿产资源。", "index": 3735}
{"en": "Then there are strategic suspicions.", "zh": "其次是严重的战略怀疑。", "index": 3736}
{"en": "Fukuda has dropped Abe’s talk about an “arch of freedom” – an effort to forge a bloc with the United States, Australia, and India.", "zh": "福田停止了安倍有关“自由圈”的谈判 — — 放弃了与美国、澳大利亚和印度组成联合集团的努力。", "index": 3737}
{"en": "But Japan remains concerned about China’s rapidly modernizing military, while China worries about a potential US-Japan containment strategy for China, especially in the case of a crisis in the Taiwan Straits.", "zh": "但日本依然对中国军事领域的快速现代化表示忧虑，而中国则担心美日可能联手对中国采取遏制策略，特别是如果台海地区发生危机。", "index": 3738}
{"en": "So, although both sides endorse the idea of a “mutually beneficial strategic relationship,” and despite progress bilateral on military exchanges, mutual trust and confidence-building have a long way to go.", "zh": "因此，尽管中日双方都对“互惠互利的战略关系”深表赞赏，而且在双边军事交流方面也取得了不少进步，但是在重拾信心，建立互信等领域还有很多工作有待完成。", "index": 3739}
{"en": "Moreover, today’s “warm politics, cool economics” trend is the reverse of the “cold politics, warm economics” pattern under Koizumi.", "zh": "此外，当前“政治热、经济冷”的趋势正在取代小泉治下的“政治冷、经济热”的模式。", "index": 3740}
{"en": "Last year, Japan’s committed investment projects in China fell 24% from 2006, while actual investment volume decreased by 25%, partly owing to regulatory changes in China regarding foreign investment.", "zh": "去年，日本在中国的专属投资项目比2006年降低了24 % ， 而实际投资额则缩减了25 % ， 这一变化部分来源于中国在外资流入方面的监管变化。", "index": 3741}
{"en": "Recent food safety issues, such as the “poisoned dumplings” cases, have clearly heightened the Japanese public’s sensitivity about Chinese exports.", "zh": "不久前所发生的安全问题，比如“毒饺子”事件，已经提高了日本公众对中国出口商品的警惕。", "index": 3742}
{"en": "Finally, historical issues could still resurface to cause new problems.", "zh": "最后，历史事件可以重新浮出水面造成新的问题。", "index": 3743}
{"en": "While Fukuda has made it clear that he will not visit the Yasukuni Shrine, 160 other parliamentarians paid homage at the site last month, an indication that conservative forces in Japan remain strong and that future prime ministers may not abstain from visiting Yasukuni.", "zh": "尽管福田明确了他将不再参拜敬国神社，仍然有160名议会成员在上个月到场表示了敬意。 这一现象表明日本的保守派势力仍然十分强大，因此未来的日本首相不一定会放弃参拜神社的权利。", "index": 3744}
{"en": "And Japan has so far failed to live up to its treaty obligations to clean up between 700,000 and two million chemical weapons that were abandoned in China by the Japanese army at the end of World War II, another potential flash point if any of these weapons causes casualties in China.", "zh": "而且日本到目前为止未能履行条约中所应承担的义务，清理二次大战末期日军遗弃在中国的700，000到2百万件化学武器。 如果这些武器在中国造成人员伤亡，可能提醒中国民众再次回忆起那段痛苦的经历。", "index": 3745}
{"en": "A Fresh Start for Europe", "zh": "欧洲的新起点", "index": 3746}
{"en": "As Europe’s leaders gather in Portugal to put the finishing touches on the new, slimmed down, Reform Treaty, it might be helpful if they all pretended that the last 50 years of European integration had never taken place.", "zh": "当欧洲的领导人们在葡萄牙汇聚一堂，对新的、经过精减的《改革公约》进行最后润色的时候，如果他们能佯装过去50年的欧洲一体化从未发生那就好了。", "index": 3747}
{"en": "Let’s then imagine what Europe needs to do to confront its most pressing challenges, especially if it were able to do so without the political constraints of 50 years of EU deal-making and ramshackle institution-building.", "zh": "就让我们想象一下欧洲为了应对最迫在眉睫的挑战需要怎么做，特别是它如果能够摆脱50年来欧盟讨价还价和朝三暮四的制度建设的政治制约。", "index": 3748}
{"en": "On top of that, let us make a major leap of imagination and suppose that even though this scenario of the EU at “Year Zero” means we would not have a half-century of intra-European cooperation to draw on, the nations that today make up the EU would nevertheless be keen to adopt far-reaching joint policies.", "zh": "在此之前，让我们再发挥一下跳跃式的想象，假设尽管欧盟“零年”的情形意味着我们没有长达半个世纪的欧洲内部合作的基础，但当今组成欧盟的各国仍然渴望实施长期的共同政策。", "index": 3749}
{"en": "Let’s suspend our disbelief, then, and try to imagine what Europe could and should be doing to tackle some of the most far-reaching and obstinate policy challenges that will determine whether the next 50 years are as constructive as the last.", "zh": "那么，让我们搁置怀疑，并想象一下欧洲可以并且应该怎么做以应对那些最为长远和困难的政策挑战。 这些挑战会决定未来五十年是否会和过去的五十年一样具有建设性。", "index": 3750}
{"en": "Or, to put it another way, let’s look at our problems in the light of the EU’s existing mechanisms and its potential for creating far-reaching new policies, and then let’s ask ourselves why the EU isn’t realizing its own potential and delivering the goods.", "zh": "或者，换句话说，让我们在现有机制下来看待这些问题及欧盟创造长期新政策的潜力，然后再让我们扪心自问欧盟为何没有发挥潜力、实现目标。", "index": 3751}
{"en": "Broadly, we see three areas in which Europe’s policymakers at both the national and EU levels can do better: global challenges where Europe could show greater leadership, the creation and strengthening of human capital within the EU and worldwide, and improvement in the effectiveness of the EU’s own political machinery.", "zh": "从大处讲，欧洲的政策制定者们在国家和欧盟层面上的三个领域可以做得更好：在全球性挑战方面欧洲可以发挥更大的领导作用；在欧盟和世界范围内创造和强化人力资本；提升欧盟自身政治机器的效率。", "index": 3752}
{"en": "Europe needs a clearer and more recognizable global agenda.", "zh": "欧洲需要一份更清晰和更能被认可的全球议程。", "index": 3753}
{"en": "It needs to build substantially on its leadership on climate change by adopting much tougher EU goals, and then use its international economic and trade clout to champion new global emissions standards that scientific opinion can accept as meaningful.", "zh": "它需要通过实施更为严格的欧盟目标来大幅提升在气候变化方面的领导力，然后运用其国际经济与贸易的影响力来引领新的全球排放标准。 这些标准应该被科学界认定为有意义的。", "index": 3754}
{"en": "On conflict and security issues, Europe should be advancing to a new phase in which it takes much clearer and unambiguous positions on issues ranging from nuclear proliferation to sanctions against Burma’s military regime.", "zh": "在冲突和安全问题上，欧洲应该步入一个新阶段，在从核扩散到制裁缅甸军政府的问题上表明更清晰和坚定的立场。", "index": 3755}
{"en": "The purpose must be to establish Europe as a forceful and fair-minded player on the world stage, rather than as a “broad church” in which different viewpoints co-exist.", "zh": "这样做的目的是为了让欧洲在世界舞台上扮演一个强既有力又公平的角色，而不是一个不同观点共存的“大圣堂 ” 。", "index": 3756}
{"en": "The aim should be that “soft power” instruments like EU development aid and economic partnerships would be linked with a growing sense of political and security outreach to ensure Europe is a global player to be reckoned with.", "zh": "其目标是将如欧盟发展援助和经济伙伴关系这样的“软实力”工具与日益增长的政治和安全保障感联系起来，从而确立欧洲的全球作用。", "index": 3757}
{"en": "That means, of course, that the EU should seek to widen its transatlantic thinking so that the EU and the United States cooperate more closely on defining – and thus protecting – their common interests in a world where together they account for little more than 10% of the total population.", "zh": "当然，这就意味着欧盟应该寻求扩展其跨大西洋的思维以便欧盟和美国在定义—进而保护—它们在世界上的共同利益方面更紧密地合作。 两者的总人口只不过占世界总人口的百分之十多一点。", "index": 3758}
{"en": "These points are far from a blanket criticism of the EU’s efforts to create a common foreign and security policy.", "zh": "这些观点甚至不算是对欧盟创建共同外交与安全政策的努力的委婉批评。", "index": 3759}
{"en": "But they are intended to underline what many people in Europe know very well, which is that the speed with which problems concerning international development and conflict are growing easily outpaces the EU’s policy responses so far.", "zh": "但它们旨在强调一些欧洲的许多人都再明白不过的事实，即与国际发展和冲突相关的问题恶化的速度早已超过了欧盟的政策回应速度。", "index": 3760}
{"en": "Building more human capital in Europe and worldwide is a crucially important element in future EU activities.", "zh": "在欧洲和世界范围内建立更多的人力资本是欧盟未来活动中至关重要的因素。", "index": 3761}
{"en": "Education is by far the most profitable investment Europe can make, so it should be launching its most ambitious strategy ever to create a new knowledge dynamic and employment inside the EU while helping to expand greatly education in the world’s poorest countries.", "zh": "教育是目前为止欧盟可以进行的回报最高的投资。 因此它应该启动有史以来最为宏伟的计划，在内部创造新的求知动力和就业机会，同时帮助世界上最穷困的国家大力发展教育事业。", "index": 3762}
{"en": "Europe also must at last grasp the nettle of immigration policy – something that has persistently eluded generations of political leaders.", "zh": "欧洲还终究必须解决移民政策的痼疾—这个让好几代领导人都避之不及的问题。", "index": 3763}
{"en": "Agreed EU-wide immigration rules are needed to reconcile shrinking Europe’s hunger for imported labor with widespread fears of cultural tensions and social unrest.", "zh": "我们需要一套经各方批准的全欧洲的移民法规来协调那种通过广泛传播的对文化压力和社会不安定的恐惧来抑制欧洲对外来劳力的极大需求的做法。", "index": 3764}
{"en": "It won’t be easy to create a fairer and more multi-cultural Europe, but failure to address this problem openly will carry an even heavier price.", "zh": "建设一个更为公平和多文化的欧洲决非易事，但在这个问题上应对不力会让我们付出更为沉重的代价。", "index": 3765}
{"en": "By much the same token, Europe’s governments should be making a determined new effort to strengthen Europeans’ sense of a shared history and common values.", "zh": "同理，欧洲各国的政府应该付出更为坚定的努力来强化欧洲人的共同历史感和共同价值观。", "index": 3766}
{"en": "A stronger European identity is the soundest basis for creating the more multi-cultural society that demographers regard as inevitable.", "zh": "一种更强烈的欧洲认同感是创造多文化社会的最坚实基础。 这样的社会在人口统计学家们看来是不可避免的。", "index": 3767}
{"en": "Meanwhile, doubts still surround the political and institutional machinery the EU will need to realize these and other ambitious goals.", "zh": "同时，在欧盟实现其宏伟目标所需要的政治与制度机器上仍然疑云笼罩。", "index": 3768}
{"en": "Sighs of relief greeted EU leaders’ mid-year agreement on a Reform Treaty aimed at overhauling the Union’s decision-making mechanisms, but it is still uncertain whether the new pact will survive the ratification process in 27 countries.", "zh": "欧盟领导人们在全面检视该组织的决策机制的《改革公约》上达成的年中协议令人可以舒一口气，但这一新协定能否得到27个成员国的批准仍然是个未知数。", "index": 3769}
{"en": "We believe, though, that the increased use of qualified majority voting by member governments embodied in the new treaty should also be applied to the ratification process itself.", "zh": "但我们认为新公约所规定的、正被各成员国越来越多地使用的有效多数票（qualified majority voting）方式，也应该适用于公约的批准过程本身。", "index": 3770}
{"en": "That way, if a small minority of EU governments prove unable to ratify the treaty, it would not be torpedoed the way that its predecessor, the Constitutional Treaty, was in 2005.", "zh": "如此一来，即便欧盟少数的成员国政府不能批准该公约，那么它也不会像其前身《宪法公约》在2005年时一样前功尽弃。", "index": 3771}
{"en": "How to Help the African Dust Bowl", "zh": "如何帮助非洲尘暴区", "index": 3772}
{"en": "SEATTLE – Picture a small farm under a blazing hot sky.", "zh": "西雅图 — — 想象一下炎热的天空下有一家小农场。", "index": 3773}
{"en": "An intense drought is afflicting the surrounding region, prospects for the next harvest are bleak, and the financial system lacks the capacity to provide the loans farmers need to get by.", "zh": "严重的干旱影响着周围地区，下一次收成前景十分暗淡，而金融系统却不具备为农民提供应急贷款的能力。", "index": 3774}
{"en": "This scenario describes today’s southern Africa, which is in the grips of an epic drought.", "zh": "这副景象描绘的是今天的南部非洲，这里正在遭受一场历史性干旱的侵袭。", "index": 3775}
{"en": "As it happens, it also describes eastern Nebraska in the “Dust Bowl” years of the early 1930s – a period through which my own family lived.", "zh": "这碰巧也是内布拉斯加州东部二十世纪三十年代初“尘暴”天气的写照 — — 这是我和家人的亲身经历。", "index": 3776}
{"en": "My father, Ralph Raikes, was the first in his family to graduate from college.", "zh": "我的父亲拉尔夫·莱克斯是家族大学毕业的第一人。", "index": 3777}
{"en": "After working for Standard Oil in California, he stopped by his parents’ farm on his way to Cambridge, Massachusetts, where he planned to pursue graduate studies at MIT.", "zh": "毕业后，他先在加利福尼亚标准石油公司就职，而后在他父母的农场中途停留，打算之后前往马萨诸塞州剑桥市攻读麻省理工学院的研究生学位。", "index": 3778}
{"en": "He never made it.", "zh": "他没能实现这个愿望。", "index": 3779}
{"en": "He had to stay in Nebraska and help my grandfather save the family farm from the banks, which had already repossessed one-third of the land.", "zh": "他被迫留在了内布拉斯加，帮助我的祖父挽救家庭农场免于被银行收回，当时银行已经收回了三分之一的土地。", "index": 3780}
{"en": "The most important change my father made was in his mindset: he came to think of the farm not as a subsistence operation, but as a family business.", "zh": "我父亲最重要的改变在于心态：他没有把农场视作维持生计的小本经营，而是视作家族生意。", "index": 3781}
{"en": "He turned to the University of Nebraska, where he had received his undergraduate degree, and acquired hybrid corn and other improved seeds that the university was developing.", "zh": "他求助于自己本科毕业的内布拉斯加大学，从那里拿到了这所大学正在研发的杂交玉米和其他改良种子。", "index": 3782}
{"en": "Then he tracked inputs and weather conditions, which was rarely done at that time.", "zh": "而后他严密监控投入的生产资料及天气条件，这在当时是非常罕见的。", "index": 3783}
{"en": "My father realized that he couldn’t go it alone, and that he would need better access to financing.", "zh": "我父亲意识到他不能单打独斗，他需要好的渠道进行融资。", "index": 3784}
{"en": "So he helped guide – first as a customer, and later as an adviser and director – Farm Credit, a national banking cooperative network, in its efforts to help local farmers weather the Dust Bowl years.", "zh": "因此他协助创建了农业信贷协会 — — 最初是以客户的身份，后来逐渐成为顾问和董事，这是一套国家银行合作网络，其目的是帮助当地农民度过尘暴天气。", "index": 3785}
{"en": "He also helped found the Nebraska Farm Business Association, which aggregated the data that he and his peers collected, so that they could determine best practices.", "zh": "他还协助建立了内布拉斯加州农场业协会，该协会对他和同行搜集的数据进行汇总，以便确定最佳的行为惯例。", "index": 3786}
{"en": "And he worked together with my mother, Alice, who ran the family poultry business.", "zh": "他与我的母亲爱丽丝一起工作，我母亲负责经营家族的禽类企业。", "index": 3787}
{"en": "Farm Credit and the University of Nebraska’s labs and greenhouses emerged out of United States government programs that had been created to improve the agriculture sector’s performance.", "zh": "农业信贷协会和内布拉斯加大学实验室及温室源于美国政府计划，目的是改善农业领域的业绩。", "index": 3788}
{"en": "That sector was under water in 1933; with one-quarter of the population living on farms at the time, more investment was needed.", "zh": "1933年农业境况低迷；当时有1/4的人口以务农为生，迫切需要加大对这一领域的投资。", "index": 3789}
{"en": "That year, Congress passed the first “farm bill,” the Agricultural Adjustment Act, which boosted investment in the rural economy and helped lift farm income by 50% within two years.", "zh": "那一年，国会通过了首部“农业法案 ” — —即“农业调整法案 ” — —推动了对农村经济的投资，成功地在两年内将农民收入提高了50 % 。", "index": 3790}
{"en": "Federal farm programs treated farming as a business enterprise, enabling businessmen like my father to prosper.", "zh": "联邦农业计划将农场视为一种商业企业，从而使我父亲这样的商人能够兴旺发达。", "index": 3791}
{"en": "Eighty years later, African farmers need to make the same switch, by treating their subsistence operations as family-owned enterprises.", "zh": "八年后，非洲农民需要做出同样的转变，把维持生计的小本经营看成家族产业。", "index": 3792}
{"en": "And, like my father during the Dust Bowl years, they have novel means at their disposal: a wide range of new seeds and other technologies have been developed for African family farms – those with 4-5 acres or less – to use in the field.", "zh": "而且，就像当年尘暴期我的父亲一样，他们不乏新的手段可以支配：为非洲农场研发了各式各样的新种子和其他技术 — — 那些拥有4-5英亩土地或者更少的农户可以在自己的田里利用新技术和种子。", "index": 3793}
{"en": "In October, a group of scientists received the World Food Prize for producing and disseminating a sweet potato variety that adds vitamin A to Sub-Saharan Africans’ diets, and other new seed varieties are helping farmers survive the harvest-crushing drought.", "zh": "10月，一群科学家因生产和传播一种新品种甘薯而获得世界粮食奖，这种新品种甘薯在撒哈拉以南非洲人的饮食中加入了维他命A，此外还有其他新型种子品种正在帮助农民度过影响农业收成的旱灾。", "index": 3794}
{"en": "But, as a recent report from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) makes clear, government investment must follow the science.", "zh": "但非洲绿色革命联盟（AGRA）最近的一份报告表明，政府投资必须遵循科学原则。", "index": 3795}
{"en": "Agriculture comprises almost two-thirds of Sub-Saharan Africa’s workforce, and in 2003 the African Union called for countries to increase their investment in the sector to an ambitious 10% of all government spending.", "zh": "农业几乎占到撒哈拉以南非洲劳动力的三分之二，2003年非洲联盟雄心勃勃地呼吁各国将农业部门投资提升到所有政府开支的10 % 。", "index": 3796}
{"en": "Only 13 countries answered that call, but their investments – in research and development, services that help farmers take advantage of new research findings, credit and financing initiatives, commodity exchanges, and other marketing efforts – have already paid dividends.", "zh": "只有十三个国家响应了这一呼吁，但他们的投资 — — 在研发领域、帮助农民利用新研究成果的服务、信贷和融资计划、商品交易所和其他营销努力 — — 均已经产生了丰厚的红利。", "index": 3797}
{"en": "Those 13 countries have experienced marked improvements in agricultural production, per capita GDP, and nutrition.", "zh": "这十三个国家的农业生产、人均国内总产值和营养状况均得到显著的改善。", "index": 3798}
{"en": "Government investment paves the way for private-sector investment, and it could be a game-changer for African farmers, who have operated at subsistence levels for far too long.", "zh": "政府投资为私营部门投资铺平了道路，对长期以来停留在维持生计低水平上的非洲农民来说，这可能彻底改变游戏规则。", "index": 3799}
{"en": "Only about 6% of rural households in Sub-Saharan Africa receive loans from financial institutions.", "zh": "只有6%的撒哈拉以南非洲农村家庭可以从金融机构那里获得贷款。", "index": 3800}
{"en": "Moreover, almost two-thirds of African farmland soil is missing key nutrients, and many farmers lack the technical knowledge and resources to restore their land’s fertility, leaving them unable to take full advantage of new technologies.", "zh": "不仅如此，近2/3的非洲农田土壤缺少关键营养元素，而且很多农民缺乏恢复土地肥力的资源和技术知识，导致他们无法充分利用新技术。", "index": 3801}
{"en": "African farmers growing new crop varieties are increasing their yields by only 28%, compared to 88% for farmers in Asia.", "zh": "非洲农民种植新作物品种单产仅增加28 % ， 而亚洲农民的增长比例则高达88%左右。", "index": 3802}
{"en": "My parents made certain that all five of their children graduated from college.", "zh": "我的父母确保他们的每一个子女都读到大学毕业。", "index": 3803}
{"en": "Like them, farmers everywhere want to ensure that their children lead healthy, prosperous lives; and they all recognize the importance of education.", "zh": "像他们一样，世界各地的农民都希望确保自己的孩子过上健康、富足的生活；而且他们都认识到教育的重要性。", "index": 3804}
{"en": "The farmers I have met around the world often just want to sell enough extra produce to pay their health bills and put their children through school.", "zh": "我在世界各地碰到的农民往往只希望出售足够的多余农产品来支付自己的医疗费用和送子女上学。", "index": 3805}
{"en": "They take advantage of opportunities when they arise, and they position their children to reap larger profits in the future.", "zh": "他们在机会出现时紧紧抓住，他们努力确保自己的孩子能在未来能够获取更大的利润。", "index": 3806}
{"en": "One hopes that an American story of economic progress, like that of my family, will soon be an African story, too.", "zh": "我们希望像我家这样的美国经济进步故事将会很快发生在非洲。", "index": 3807}
{"en": "With so many new innovations becoming available, Africa’s family farmers need their governments to invest in their future.", "zh": "随着诸多创新成果集中上市，非洲家庭农场主需要他们的政府为他们的未来投资。", "index": 3808}
{"en": "If they do, that future will look much better than today’s dusty and desperate reality.", "zh": "如果政府做到这一点，未来将比今天尘土飞扬的绝望现实要好得多。", "index": 3809}
{"en": "Africa at Risk", "zh": "身处危险中的非洲", "index": 3810}
{"en": "ADDIS ABABA – Climate change will hit Africa – a continent that has contributed virtually nothing to bring it about – first and hardest.", "zh": "亚的斯亚贝巴 — — 气候变化最先、也最沉重地打击了非洲这块从未造成过气候变化的大陆。", "index": 3811}
{"en": "Aside from Antarctica, Africa is the only continent that has not industrialized.", "zh": "除南极洲以外，非洲恐怕是唯一一块尚未实现工业化的大陆。", "index": 3812}
{"en": "Indeed, since 1980’s the industrialization that had taken place in Africa has by and large been reversed.", "zh": "事实上，在20世纪80年代以后，非洲大陆的工业化进程就总体而言已经发生了逆转。", "index": 3813}
{"en": "Africa has thus contributed nothing to the historical accumulation of greenhouse gases through carbon-based industrialization.", "zh": "非洲也因此没有在以碳为基础的工业化温室气体积累中扮演任何角色。", "index": 3814}
{"en": "Moreover, its current contribution is also negligible, practically all of it coming from deforestation and degradation of forests and farmland.", "zh": "此外，非洲目前的碳排放也微乎其微，非洲所有的碳排放几乎全部来自森林砍伐以及森林和农田的逐步退化。", "index": 3815}
{"en": "Yet climate change will hit Africa hardest, because it will cripple the continent’s vulnerable agricultural sector, on which 70% of the population depends.", "zh": "但气候变化对非洲的打击却最大，因为它严重影响到非洲大陆脆弱的农业部门，而农业部门养活了70%的非洲人口。", "index": 3816}
{"en": "All estimates of the possible impact of global warming suggest that a large part of the continent will become drier, and that the continent as a whole will experience greater climatic variability.", "zh": "对全球变暖可能影响的所有预测都表明非洲大部分地区将会更加干旱，而从整体而言非洲大陆将出现更为剧烈的气候变化。", "index": 3817}
{"en": "We know what the impact of periodic droughts have been on the lives of tens of millions of Africans.", "zh": "我们已经知道周期性干旱对数千万非洲民众生活所造成的影响。", "index": 3818}
{"en": "We can therefore imagine what the impact of a drier climate on agriculture is likely to be.", "zh": "因此我们可以想见气候变干可能对农业造成的影响。", "index": 3819}
{"en": "Conditions in this vital economic sector will become even more precarious than they currently are.", "zh": "与现有状况相比，这一生死攸关的经济领域的稳定性将会进一步下降。", "index": 3820}
{"en": "Africa will not only be hit hardest, but it will be hit first.", "zh": "非洲遭受的打击不但最重，而且也最早。", "index": 3821}
{"en": "Indeed, the long dreaded impact of climate change is already upon us.", "zh": "实际上，人们已经在遭受惧怕已久的气候变化的影响。", "index": 3822}
{"en": "The current drought covering much of East Africa – far more severe than past droughts – has been directly associated with climate change.", "zh": "东非绝大部分地区都在发生旱灾 — — 这场旱灾与气候变化有着直接的关系，而且也比以往更加严重。", "index": 3823}
{"en": "The upcoming climate negotiations ought to address the specific problems of Africa and similarly vulnerable poor parts of the world.", "zh": "即将开始的气候谈判应当针对非洲和同样脆弱的世界贫困地区所出现的具体情况。", "index": 3824}
{"en": "This requires, first and most importantly, reducing global warming to the apparently inevitable increase of two degrees Celsius, beyond which lies an environmental catastrophe that could be unmanageable for poor and vulnerable countries.", "zh": "第一步，也是最重要的一步，是要将全球变暖控制在看似不可避免的两摄氏度的范围之内，如果超出这个幅度，它所带来的环境灾难就会使贫困和脆弱国家无法承受。", "index": 3825}
{"en": "Second, adequate resources should be made available to poor and vulnerable regions and countries to enable them to adapt to climate change.", "zh": "其次，应该为贫困和脆弱的国家和地区提供充足的资源，以便使它们能够适应气候的变化。", "index": 3826}
{"en": "Climate change, which was largely brought about by the activities of developed countries, has made it difficult for poor and vulnerable countries to fight poverty.", "zh": "总体而言由发达国家活动所造成的气候变化已经加大了贫困和脆弱国家战胜贫困的难度，导致发展环境进一步恶化。", "index": 3827}
{"en": "It has created a more hostile environment for development. No amount of money will undo the damage done.", "zh": "由此造成的损失无论花多少钱都无法弥补。", "index": 3828}
{"en": "But adequate investment in mitigating the damage could partly resolve the problem.", "zh": "但投入充足的资金减轻损失或许能够部分解决问题。", "index": 3829}
{"en": "Developed countries are thus morally obliged to pay partial compensation to poor and vulnerable countries and regions to cover part of the cost of the investments needed to adapt to climate change.", "zh": "因此，发达国家也有义务向贫困脆弱国家及地区支付部分弥补气候变化所需投资的相关赔偿。", "index": 3830}
{"en": "Various estimates have been made of the scale of investment required by those countries.", "zh": "人们对上述国家所要求的投资规模做出了各种猜想。", "index": 3831}
{"en": "One conservative estimate – which has a reasonable chance of being accepted precisely because it is conservative – calls for $50 billion per year as of 2015, increasing to $100 billion by 2020 and beyond.", "zh": "一种保守的估计提出到2015年前每年投资500亿美元，到2020年及以后则增加到1000亿美元 — — 这一提案之所以有可能被采纳也正是因为它比较保守。", "index": 3832}
{"en": "A transitional financing arrangement would be put in place for the period 2010-2015.", "zh": "2010－2015年间将实行过渡性融资计划。", "index": 3833}
{"en": "Some argue that developed countries cannot come up with such sums, particularly given their current economic challenges.", "zh": "有人提出特别是在当前的经济困境下，发达国家拿不出这么大的数目。", "index": 3834}
{"en": "But no one has so far argued that the cost of damage caused to the development prospects of poor countries and regions is less than the amount of compensation being offered to cover adjustment costs.", "zh": "但迄今为止还没有人提出贫困国家和地区发展前景所遭受的损失达不到支付调整费用的补偿额。", "index": 3835}
{"en": "The reason is obvious: the damage caused is many times higher than the compensation being requested.", "zh": "原因非常明显：所造成的损失数倍于所要求补偿的数额。", "index": 3836}
{"en": "Nonetheless, it is argued, whatever the real cost of the damage, developed countries currently cannot afford to provide that kind of money.", "zh": "即便如此，仍有人提出无论损失的实际数额怎样，发达国家目前都无法支付这笔金额。", "index": 3837}
{"en": "But we all know that these countries and their national banks were able to spend trillions of dollars in a few months to bail out their bankers, who earned super-profits when the going was good.", "zh": "可我们都知道这些国家和它们的央行有能力在数月之内耗费数万亿美元的巨资来救助它们在经济运行平稳时赚取了超额利润的银行。", "index": 3838}
{"en": "When the good times ended, taxpayers and governments were prepared to rescue them and to ensure that they continued to receive their extraordinary bonuses.", "zh": "好日子结束时，纳税人和政府准备救援它们，确保它们继续得到额外的津贴。", "index": 3839}
{"en": "If the developed world is able to pay trillions of dollars to clean up its bankers’ mess, how is it possible that it cannot afford to pay billions of dollars to clean up a mess that it created, and that is threatening the survival of whole continents?", "zh": "如果发达国家能拿出数万亿美元清理银行的混乱局面，那么它又怎么可能拿不出区区数十亿美元来为自己制造的威胁到世界民众生存的混乱局面缮后？", "index": 3840}
{"en": "Clearly this is not about the availability of resources. It is about the inappropriate priorities in how resources are allocated.", "zh": "显然问题的关键并不在于有没有相关的资源，而在于资源分配的顺序恰不恰当。", "index": 3841}
{"en": "It is about moral values that make it appropriate to rescue bankers, who expect everyone but themselves to pay for the mess they created, and inappropriate to compensate the world’s poorest people, whose survival is threatened precisely because of the mess created by developed countries.", "zh": "问题的关键是在某些人价值取向中认为应当救援银行，哪怕银行希望除自己之外的所有人为自己造成的混乱负责，也不应该补偿世界最贫困的民众，他们的生存已经在发达国家所造成的混乱中受到了威胁。", "index": 3842}
{"en": "I cannot believe that people in developed counties, when informed about the issues, would support rescuing bankers and oppose partial compensation for poor countries and regions.", "zh": "我无法相信发达国家的民众在了解事实真相后，会支持援助银行而反对对贫困国家地区给予部分的补偿。", "index": 3843}
{"en": "I cannot believe that they will let such an injustice occur.", "zh": "我无法相信他们会放任这种不公平的现象。", "index": 3844}
{"en": "If they are not expressing their outrage over the injustice of it all, it can only be because they are inadequately informed.", "zh": "如果他们没有表达对这种不公平现象的愤怒，那只能是因为他们还不完全了解事实的真相。", "index": 3845}
{"en": "Three Humanitarian Challenges for Africa in 2018", "zh": "2018年非洲的三大人道主义挑战", "index": 3846}
{"en": "NAIROBI – In mid-2017, when a cholera outbreak in Somalia threatened to overwhelm local hospitals, health experts feared the worst.", "zh": "内罗毕—2017年年中，索马里爆发了一场祸乱，几乎让当地医院完全瘫痪，卫生专家做好了最坏的打算。", "index": 3847}
{"en": "With crippling drought, malnutrition, and poverty already endemic, an outbreak of deadly diarrhea seemed destined to paralyze the fragile state. But, despite the dire predictions, institutional paralysis was avoided.", "zh": "目前，大旱、营养不良和贫困仍然顽固难除，爆发致命的腹泻病、让这个脆弱的国家陷入瘫痪的情景似乎难以避免。", "index": 3848}
{"en": "Although hundreds died and many more became sick, the collective response managed by governments, NGOs, and local communities, including the national Red Crescent Societies supported by the Red Cross movement, contained the disease.", "zh": "尽管有数百人丧生，更多人患病，但政府、非政府组织、当地社区 — — 包括红十字会运动支持的国家红十字会 — — 共同组织的集体响应还是遏制了疫情。", "index": 3849}
{"en": "Somalia’s experience gives me great hope for Africa’s future.", "zh": "索马里的经验让我们的非洲的未来有了很大希望。", "index": 3850}
{"en": "But it also serves as a reminder that local capacity is easily inundated during times of crisis.", "zh": "但它也提醒我们，地方能力很容易被危机吞噬。", "index": 3851}
{"en": "While some parts of Africa have become self-sufficient in terms of public health, others continue to lean heavily on global aid.", "zh": "尽管一些非洲国家在公共卫生方面已能自给自足，但其他国家仍严重依赖国际援助。", "index": 3852}
{"en": "For these areas, partnership is the best means of minimizing risks.", "zh": "对于这些地区，合作是实现风险最小化的最好办法。", "index": 3853}
{"en": "In particular, three key challenges this year are likely to pose the severest tests of Africa’s ability to manage humanitarian crises.", "zh": "特别是，今年有三项主要挑战有可能对非洲管理人道主义危机的能力进行最严厉的检验。", "index": 3854}
{"en": "The first challenge is violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.", "zh": "第一项挑战是民主刚果的暴力。", "index": 3855}
{"en": "Last year, conflict in the DRC’s central Kasai region displaced some 1.4 million people, bringing the total displaced population to 4.1 million – the largest concentration of internal refugees anywhere in Africa.", "zh": "去年，民主刚果中部的开赛（Kasai）地区有140万人流离失所，使得失去家园的总人口达到了410万 — — 也是非洲规模最大的国内难民群体。", "index": 3856}
{"en": "The violence has exacerbated food insecurity, with more than three million people severely undernourished.", "zh": "暴力加剧了粮食安全问题，三百多万人严重营养不良。", "index": 3857}
{"en": "Unfortunately, the Kasai crisis is expected to worsen in 2018.", "zh": "不幸的是，预计在2018年，开赛危机还将继续恶化。", "index": 3858}
{"en": "A recent assessment by the Red Cross Society of the DRC warns that the number of people displaced will continue to rise, and with a fast-spreading cholera outbreak threatening the region, a coordinated plan of action is urgently needed.", "zh": "民主刚果红十字会的一份 最新评估警告说，流离失所人数将继续增加，且该地区还受到传播迅速的霍乱疫情的威胁，急需协调行动计划。", "index": 3859}
{"en": "The second challenge this year is Somalia’s food insecurity, which, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network, is expected to intensify this year.", "zh": "今年的第二项挑战是索马里粮食安全问题，据饥荒早期预警系统网络的数据，索马里粮食安全问题在今年将加剧。", "index": 3860}
{"en": "Below-average rainfall in 2017 stunted harvests, and most regions have not fully recovered.", "zh": "2017年，低于平均水平的降水妨碍了收成，大部分地区尚未完全恢复。", "index": 3861}
{"en": "As humanitarian aid is channeled to the country, efforts must be made to target long-term solutions, such as improving agricultural output, educational access, and economic opportunity.", "zh": "在人道主义援助不断流向索马里之际，必须制定长期方案，如改善农业产出、普及教育和经济机会。", "index": 3862}
{"en": "Historically, most aid to the country has been earmarked for emergency relief; even the collective cholera response was narrowly focused on short-term health.", "zh": "从历史上看，流入索马里的大部分援助用来进行紧急纾困；即使是集体霍乱响应措施，也狭窄地集中关注短期健康。", "index": 3863}
{"en": "But Somalia desperately needs a more holistic, long-term development strategy.", "zh": "但索马里急需更加全局性的长期发展战略。", "index": 3864}
{"en": "Finally, the very scourge that Somalia contained last year will continue to rear its head elsewhere in the region.", "zh": "最后，去年被索马里克服的灾难，今年将在域内其他地方急需肆虐。", "index": 3865}
{"en": "Yemen’s cholera outbreak is now the largest in history, having already surpassed one million confirmed cases, and, despite years of international assistance, the threat continues to stalk Africa.", "zh": "也门霍乱疫情已经达到历史最大规模，确诊病例已超过一百万例，而尽管有多年来国际援助的支持，非洲也仍然饱受霍乱的威胁。", "index": 3866}
{"en": "In the last four decades, African countries reported over three million suspected cholera cases to the World Health Organization and new cases are cropping up this year in Africa’s east-central and southern regions.", "zh": "在过去四十年里，非洲国家向世界卫生组织报告了三百万例疑似病例，而在非洲中东部和南部地区，今年不断有新病例涌现。", "index": 3867}
{"en": "Fortunately, there is hope that Somalia’s containment success in 2017 can be replicated, provided that communities and individuals are well aware of the disease and related risks, and that local actors receive the needed resources.", "zh": "幸运的是，索马里在2017年所取得的遏制霍乱的成功有希望得到复制，只要社会和个人对霍乱及其相关风险有清醒的认识，并且本地行动方能够获得所需要的资源。", "index": 3868}
{"en": "The Global Task Force on Cholera Control, which seeks to build local and international support for improved health care and sanitation, has published a global roadmap for ending cholera by 2030.", "zh": "霍乱控制全球任务组（Global Task Force on Cholera Control）负责为医疗和卫生设施的改善寻找本地和国际支持，它已经发布了2030年消灭或乱全球路线图。", "index": 3869}
{"en": "Although that is an ambitious target, it is achievable if international organizations and local governments work together.", "zh": "尽管这是一个宏大的目标，但只要国际组织和地方政府齐心协力，仍然是可以实现的。", "index": 3870}
{"en": "Natural and manmade crises will continue to plague Africa, but organizations like mine are working hard to bring about a brighter future through improved capacity building.", "zh": "自然和人为危机将继续在非洲肆虐，但我所在的和其他组织正在努力通过改善能力构建为非洲打造更加光明的未来。", "index": 3871}
{"en": "To succeed, however, local and international development partners must reorient their thinking; humanitarian aid alone will not solve Africa’s myriad challenges.", "zh": "但要想获得成功，本地和国际发展伙伴必须改变思维：光靠人道主义援助不足以解决非洲为数巨大的挑战。", "index": 3872}
{"en": "While money is clearly needed, it must be spent more strategically to improve structural weaknesses that perpetuate instability.", "zh": "资金显然是必要的，但花钱必须更有策略性，以改善造成持续动荡的结构性弱点。", "index": 3873}
{"en": "For example, if more funding were devoted to community-level health care projects, local organizations would be better positioned to lead when outbreaks threaten.", "zh": "比如，如果更多的资金能够用于社区层面的医疗项目，本地组织就能在疫情爆发时更好地起到领导作用。", "index": 3874}
{"en": "Put simply, the international development community must do more to invest in grassroots solutions, empowering Africans rather than treating them as subcontractors to their own suffering.", "zh": "简言之，国际发展社会必须加大对草根方案的投入，为非洲人民赋权，而不是将他们视为解决自身困难的转包商。", "index": 3875}
{"en": "Not only are local organizations better positioned to navigate complex cultural and linguistic landscapes; they also have more to lose if they fail.", "zh": "本地组织更适合应付复杂的文化和语言环境；但如果它们失败的话，代价也更大。", "index": 3876}
{"en": "Last year was devastating for many Africans, as millions suffered from drought, hunger, and violence.", "zh": "去年对于许多非洲人来说是灾难性的一年，数百万人蒙受了干旱、饥饿和暴力。", "index": 3877}
{"en": "But in Somalia, a coordinated response to a serious health threat offered new hope for a more secure future.", "zh": "但在索马里，面对严重卫生威胁的协调响应让人们感到能够构建更安全的未来的新希望。", "index": 3878}
{"en": "When local ingenuity and international support align, the cycle of suffering can be broken. For many African countries, the ability to look confidently beyond the next crisis is the first step on the long road to self-reliance.", "zh": "对许多非洲国家而言，充满自信地将目光放在比下一场危机更远的地方，是构建自我恢复力的漫长征程的第一步。", "index": 3879}
{"en": "Africa, Climate Change, and the G-8 Summit", "zh": "非洲、气候变化和八国峰会", "index": 3880}
{"en": "British Prime Minister Tony Blair has declared that the two issues at the center of the G-8 Summit this July will be African poverty and global climate change.", "zh": "英国首相托尼·布莱尔已经宣布，今年七月举行的八国峰会的两大主要议题将是非洲贫困与全球气候变化。", "index": 3881}
{"en": "These may seem to be distinct issues. In fact, they are linked.", "zh": "这两个话题也许看起来大相径庭，但事实上，它们却是相互关联的。", "index": 3882}
{"en": "A trip I took to a village in the Tigre region in northern Ethiopia shows why.", "zh": "我去了埃塞俄比亚北部的Tigre地区的一个村庄，这趟旅行能解释其中缘由。", "index": 3883}
{"en": "One morning, I was taken to a dry riverbed at the village’s edge.", "zh": "一天早晨，我被带到村庄边缘一个干涸的河床。", "index": 3884}
{"en": "Farmers were digging a pit in the riverbed, down to the water table approximately two meters below ground level.", "zh": "农民们正在河床中挖一个深坑，一直挖到地面以下两米多的水管处。", "index": 3885}
{"en": "They explained that until recently this was a perennial river – one that flows throughout the year – but now the river stops flowing during the dry season.", "zh": "他们解释说，这条河不久之前还是一条四季不枯竭、全年流淌不息的河，但是现在这条河一到旱季就断流。", "index": 3886}
{"en": "Only when the annual rains begin in the summer does water reappear in the river bed.", "zh": "只有在每年夏天的降雨来临之时，河床里才会有河水。", "index": 3887}
{"en": "Until then, water-starved communities dig for water, if they can find it and if they can afford to pump it out.", "zh": "就是从那个时候开始，只要能够找到水源并且有足够的钱把水抽出来，缺水地区就会挖坑寻水。", "index": 3888}
{"en": "In northern Ethiopia, as in much of Africa, the rain cycle has changed markedly in recent years.", "zh": "和非洲其他诸多地区一样，北埃塞俄比亚最近几年的雨循环已经发生显著变化。", "index": 3889}
{"en": "Ethiopian village life has long depended on two crops, one during a short rain in March and April, and the main crop during the long rain in the summer months.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚内的村庄长期以来依赖于两种农作物。 一种农作物生长于三月和四月的短雨季，而主要农作物则在夏天的长雨季中生长。", "index": 3890}
{"en": "In recent years, the short rains have failed entirely, and long rains have been erratic.", "zh": "最近几年，短雨季已经完全消失，而长雨季也变得不再稳定。", "index": 3891}
{"en": "Hunger is omnipresent.", "zh": "饥荒正在蔓延。", "index": 3892}
{"en": "Perhaps half of the children are severely underweight.", "zh": "或许已有一半的儿童体重严重不足。", "index": 3893}
{"en": "Much of arid sub-Saharan Africa, notably in the Sahel (the region just south of the Sahara desert), has experienced a pronounced drop in rainfall over the past quarter-century.", "zh": "撒哈拉沙漠以南的大部分干旱地区，尤其是Sahel（该地区就在撒哈拉沙漠南面 ） ， 过去25年的降雨量已经明显下滑。", "index": 3894}
{"en": "This decline coincided with a rise in the surface temperature of the neighboring Indian Ocean, a hint that the decline in rainfall is in fact part of the longer-term process of man-made global warming.", "zh": "与此同时，离它不远的印度洋却水温上升，这一现象暗示着，降雨量的减少实际是人类一手造成的长期全球性气候变暖的一部分。", "index": 3895}
{"en": "Failures of rainfall contribute not only to famines and chronic hunger, but also to the onset of violence when hungry people clash over scarce food and water.", "zh": "降雨量的不足不仅导致了连年饥荒，还引发了暴力活动，饥饿的人们为争夺稀少的食物和水源而冲突不断。", "index": 3896}
{"en": "When violence erupts in water-starved regions such as Darfur, Sudan, political leaders tend to view the problems in narrow political terms.", "zh": "当缺水地区，诸如达尔富尔和苏丹，爆发暴力活动时，政治领导人从狭隘的政治角度来看待问题。", "index": 3897}
{"en": "If they act at all, they mobilize peacekeepers, international sanctions, and humanitarian aid.", "zh": "一旦行动，他们就会动用和平维护者、国际制裁和人道主义援助。", "index": 3898}
{"en": "But Darfur, like Tigre, needs a development strategy to fight hunger and drought even more than it needs peacekeepers. Soldiers cannot keep peace among desperately hungry people.", "zh": "但是，与Tigre一样，对达尔富尔来说，比起和平维护者来说，它更需要一个能够抵抗饥荒和干旱的发展策略。", "index": 3899}
{"en": "One course of action must be to help impoverished African regions to “adapt” to climate change and to escape the poverty trap.", "zh": "该行动必须要有一个能帮助贫瘠的非洲地区“适应”气候变化并脱离贫穷陷阱的过程。", "index": 3900}
{"en": "Water-stressed regions like Ethiopia and Sudan can adapt, at least in part, through improved technologies such as “drip irrigation,” rainwater harvesting, improved water storage facilities, deep wells, and agro-forestry techniques that make best use of scarce rainfall. Better land-management practices (the re-planting of degraded forests, for example) can recharge underground water aquifers.", "zh": "通过技术改进，诸如能最有效利用不足降水的“滴灌 ” 、 人工汇集雨水、改良后的储水设备、深井以及农业林学技术，使埃塞俄比亚和苏丹这样的缺水地区至少在一定程度上适应气候变化。", "index": 3901}
{"en": "Poor countries cannot afford these technologies on their own.", "zh": "贫穷国家本身无力担负这些技术的费用。", "index": 3902}
{"en": "Nor should they have to.", "zh": "这也不应该由他们来承担。", "index": 3903}
{"en": "Help for poor countries in Africa and elsewhere to adapt to climate change should not be described as charity or aid, but rather as compensation for damages being imposed on the poorest people on the planet.", "zh": "对非洲或其他任何地方的贫穷国家提供使他们适应气候变化的帮助不应当被视为是一种慈善或援助，而是对这个星球上最贫困的、强制性忍受各种毁坏的人们的一种补偿。", "index": 3904}
{"en": "Greater help for these countries to escape from extreme poverty has been promised for decades but has not been delivered.", "zh": "数十年来，向这些国家提供更多使其脱离极度贫困的承诺一再出现，却从未兑现。", "index": 3905}
{"en": "In addition to adapting to climate change, the world must also reduce future risks to the planet by cutting back on emissions of greenhouse gases, which are the source of man-made climate change.", "zh": "除了要适应气候变化，全世界也必须减少温室气体的排放以降低这个星球未来所面临的风险。 温室气体正是人为气候改变的罪魁祸首。", "index": 3906}
{"en": "While adaptation to climate change is necessary – because it is already occurring – this is not enough.", "zh": "虽然对气候变化的适应是必需的 — — 因为它已经发生了 — — 但这还不够。", "index": 3907}
{"en": "If the world fails to mitigate future climate change, the effects of rising temperatures, increasing droughts, more numerous and severe tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a spread of tropical diseases will pose huge threats to the entire planet.", "zh": "如果全世界不能减缓未来气候变化的趋势，那么上升的气温、愈发严重的旱情、愈加频繁严重的热带��暴、不断上涨的海平线以及热带疾病的扩散将会给全球带来严峻考验。", "index": 3908}
{"en": "The famines in Ethiopia and the violence in Darfur suggest what can lie ahead.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚的饥荒和达尔富尔的暴力活动已经预示着将会面临的情况。", "index": 3909}
{"en": "The best way to reduce long-term climate change is to reduce carbon emissions.", "zh": "减缓长期气候变化趋势的最佳方法是减少碳化物的排放。 这至少有三个办法： 改用非碳能源，诸如太阳能和核能。", "index": 3910}
{"en": "There are at least three options: shift to non-carbon energy sources such as solar or nuclear energy; capture and dispose of the carbon dioxide emitted at carbon-based power plants; economize on energy use, for example by shifting to hybrid automobiles and trucks.", "zh": "不允许以碳作能源的发电厂释放二氧化碳气体，对二氧化碳气体作妥善处理。 节约使用能源，比如改用混合型汽车和卡车。", "index": 3911}
{"en": "Most likely, all three of these methods will have to play a role.", "zh": "很有可能，这三种方法都必须发挥作用。", "index": 3912}
{"en": "The effort to reduce greenhouse gases will require decades of action, but, given the long lead times in overhauling the world’s energy systems, we must start now.", "zh": "要减少温室气体还需要很多努力，但是，鉴于改革全球能源系统需要很长时间，我们必须现在就开始。", "index": 3913}
{"en": "Rich countries need to lead the way.", "zh": "富国应当担当起领头羊的任务。", "index": 3914}
{"en": "It is ironic that the United States, which portrays itself as a friend of democracy and impoverished countries, gives the smallest share of its GNP in aid among the rich countries, and also refuses to participate in global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.", "zh": "颇为讽刺的是，向来自诩为民主和穷困国家之友的美国，与其他富国相比，提供的援助只占其国民生产总值的最小份额，它还拒绝参加为减少温室气体排放的全球行动。", "index": 3915}
{"en": "This is especially ironic because African countries like Ethiopia stand steadfastly and bravely with the US in the fight for freedom and against terrorism, even as they struggle with hunger, disease, and famine.", "zh": "这点尤为讽刺，因为埃塞俄比亚这样的非洲国家即使在饥饿、疾病和饥荒中艰苦挣扎，他们还是坚定不移、勇往无惧地与美国一起站在争取自由与反对恐怖主义的同一战线上。", "index": 3916}
{"en": "Moreover, countries like Ethiopia are making valiant, indeed remarkable, efforts to overcome their problems, despite the lack of adequate, and long-promised, help from the world’s richest countries.", "zh": "此外，像埃塞俄比亚这样的国家正在采取坚定有效的措施来克服他们的问题，尽管没有得到来自世界最富有国家承诺许久的任何适当帮助。", "index": 3917}
{"en": "Africans suffering from hunger and drought, and indeed poor people everywhere, have a right to ask much more of the US and other rich countries.", "zh": "正在遭受着饥荒和旱灾的非洲人民，以及世界各地的贫困人们，都有权利来向美国和其他富国提出更多要求。", "index": 3918}
{"en": "Tony Blair is right to call on his rich-country colleagues to follow through on their unfulfilled promises.", "zh": "托尼·布莱尔号召他的富国同僚们来履行完他们未尽责的承诺，他做对了。", "index": 3919}
{"en": "Capitalizing on Africa’s Demographic Dividend", "zh": "利用非洲的人口红利", "index": 3920}
{"en": "LOMÉ – Africa is home to the world’s youngest and fastest-growing population.", "zh": "洛美—非洲拥有全世界最年轻、增长最快的人口。", "index": 3921}
{"en": "With as many as 20 million young people poised to join the workforce every year for the next three decades, the continent has an opportunity to shift the balance of local and global growth with a purpose: jobs.", "zh": "未来三十年，每年都会有多达2,000万年轻人加入劳动力，非洲面临着改变本地和全球增长平衡的机会：就业。", "index": 3922}
{"en": "But it is far from inevitable that it will do so.", "zh": "但这绝非定局。", "index": 3923}
{"en": "For African countries to capitalize on this demographic dividend, the future workforce must be educated, trained, and have adequate employment opportunities.", "zh": "非洲国家要想利用这一人口红利，未来劳动力就必须接受教育和训练，并拥有充足的就业机会。", "index": 3924}
{"en": "Putting all the pieces in place will not be easy.", "zh": "同时满足这些条件绝非易事。", "index": 3925}
{"en": "These are uncertain times for the global economy.", "zh": "现时代是全球经济的不确定时代。", "index": 3926}
{"en": "Trade tensions between the United States and China are threatening the integrity of global value chains, and Britain’s looming exit from the European Union has the potential to cause even more disruption.", "zh": "美国与中国之间的贸易紧张威胁着全球价值链的完整性，即将发生的英国退欧有可能导致更大的破坏。", "index": 3927}
{"en": "The International Monetary Fund’s October forecast warns that as historic economic drivers stall, global growth this year and next could fall to 3.7%, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from previous estimates.", "zh": "国际货币基金组织（IMF）在其10月份的预测中警告说，随着历史性的经济引擎的熄火，今年和明年全球增长可能下降至3.7 % ， 较此前的预测降低0.2个百分点。", "index": 3928}
{"en": "But as this slowdown gets priced in by stock markets around the world, new drivers of growth will emerge.", "zh": "但随着这一减速体现在全世界股票市场中，新的增长引擎也将浮现。", "index": 3929}
{"en": "Africa is well positioned to become one of them.", "zh": "非洲非常有望成为新引擎之一。", "index": 3930}
{"en": "According to the World Bank, six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are in Africa.", "zh": "据世界银行数据，全球增长最快的十个经济体中有六个在非洲。", "index": 3931}
{"en": "Intra-African trade might be the gateway to future local and global growth, with the continent’s burgeoning population forging new opportunities across borders.", "zh": "非洲内部贸易可能成为未来本地和全球增长的门户，其生机勃勃的人口将带来众多跨国机会。", "index": 3932}
{"en": "Most significantly, Africa’s labor force is on the verge of a dramatic expansion.", "zh": "最重要的是，非洲劳动力即将迎来大爆发。", "index": 3933}
{"en": "Today, 60% of Africans are younger than 25, and 41% are under the age of 15.", "zh": "今天，60%的非洲人不到25岁，41%不到15岁。", "index": 3934}
{"en": "By 2050, Africa’s youth population is expected to reach 840 million.", "zh": "到2050年，非洲青年人口预计将达到8.4亿。", "index": 3935}
{"en": "But this massive pool of potential talent is a double-edged sword.", "zh": "但这一巨大的未来人才库是一柄双刃剑。", "index": 3936}
{"en": "Despite strong GDP growth over the last ten years, the majority of young people in Africa could not capture economic opportunities.", "zh": "尽管过去十年GDP增长强劲，但非洲大部分年轻人无法抓住经济机会。", "index": 3937}
{"en": "Furthermore, the African Union/OECD report Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018 highlights that if the underemployment trend continues, Africa’s young people will suffer the most.", "zh": "此外，非盟/经合组织报告《非洲发展动态2018 》 （ Africa’s Development Dynamics 2018）强调，如果失业趋势继续，非洲年轻人将受到最大冲击。", "index": 3938}
{"en": "Failing to employ Africa’s young people fully could marginalize an entire generation and lead them down a path of disruption for which we may not be prepared.", "zh": "不能充分雇用非洲年轻人可能会造成整整一代人被边缘化，把他们推向他们未必准备好的破坏之路。", "index": 3939}
{"en": "For countries to experience job-led long-term growth, the provision of quality opportunities in agriculture is vital.", "zh": "对于意在通过就业刺激长期增长的国家，提供高质量农业机会至关重要。", "index": 3940}
{"en": "If that does not happen, and quality jobs remain scarce, the economic expansion of which Africa is capable will not happen.", "zh": "若非如此，如果高质量就业仍然稀缺，非洲本有能力实现的经济扩张就不会发生。", "index": 3941}
{"en": "In other words, African governments are facing a deadline to match job growth with skills training.", "zh": "换句话说，非洲政府面临匹配就业增长与技能训练的最后期限。", "index": 3942}
{"en": "Unfortunately, at the moment, few countries are addressing this challenge effectively.", "zh": "不幸的是，目前很少有国家能够有效地面对这一挑战。", "index": 3943}
{"en": "According to the African Development Bank, the unemployment rate for young people in Africa is already double the rate for adults.", "zh": "据非洲开发银行，非洲年轻人失业率已高达成年人的两倍。", "index": 3944}
{"en": "In fact, young people are being let down even before they start looking for work.", "zh": "事实上，年轻人在开始找工作之前便已经被淘汰。", "index": 3945}
{"en": "Too many primary schools suffer from crippling teacher shortages, for example, and gender discrimination prevents millions of girls from even attending high school.", "zh": "比如，太多小学师资力量严重短缺，而性别歧视又让数百万女童根本无法上学。", "index": 3946}
{"en": "To overcome these shortcomings will require significant investments of political and financial capital.", "zh": "要克服这些缺陷，需要投入巨大的政治和金融资本。", "index": 3947}
{"en": "Some leaders are moving in this direction.", "zh": "一些领导人正在朝这一方向努力。", "index": 3948}
{"en": "At the Paris Peace Forum (PPF), held earlier this month, African and global leaders gathered to discuss the powerful idea that international cooperation is the key to tackling global challenges and ensuring durable peace.", "zh": "在本月早些时候举行的巴黎和平论坛（PPF）上，非洲和全球领导人聚会讨论了一个强大的概念：国际合作是解决全球挑战、确保持续和平的关键。", "index": 3949}
{"en": "On the sidelines of the PPF, the focus fell on African youth.", "zh": "PPF会场之外，焦点集中在了非洲年轻人身上。", "index": 3950}
{"en": "The AU-EU Youth Cooperation Hub, one of 119 projects selected to participate in the Forum, attended the meeting to discuss the AU-EU Youth Agenda.", "zh": "作为被选中参与PPF的119个项目之一，非盟-欧盟青年合作中心（AU-EU Youth Cooperation Hub）参会讨论了非盟-欧盟青年日程。", "index": 3951}
{"en": "Striving to involve young people across Africa and Europe in decisions that impact them, now and in the future, this initiative aims to showcase strategies for bringing Africa and Europe together to address challenges such as the demographic dividend.", "zh": "该计划致力于让非洲和欧洲的年轻人参与到现在和未来影响他们的决策中，旨在呈现让非洲和欧洲合作解决人口红利等挑战的策略。", "index": 3952}
{"en": "One approach to capitalizing on Africa’s demographic boom is to expand the availability of training initiatives that pair employers’ needs with African talent.", "zh": "利用非洲人口红利的一个方法是扩大训练项目普及度，让雇主的需求与非洲人才相匹配。", "index": 3953}
{"en": "As a former fellow with the Ibrahim Leadership program, I can attest to the transformative power of top-tier educational schemes and their value as incubators for job-related skills.", "zh": "作为 易卜拉欣领导力（Ibrahim Leadership）项目前成员，我能够证明优秀的教育计划的转变力，以及作为就业相关技能孵化器的价值。", "index": 3954}
{"en": "Africa’s success relies on its ability to harness its demographic dividend by equipping its youth with technological and innovative skills, which will be a catalyst for economic growth.", "zh": "非洲的成功取决于其用技术和创新技能武装年轻人，成为经济增长的催化剂，从而抓住人口红利的能力。", "index": 3955}
{"en": "This includes training and agriculture-focused programs to absorb skills along the value chains that connect raw materials to industries and markets across Africa.", "zh": "这包括通过训练项目和以农业为中心的计划，沿着从整个非洲的原材料到产业和市场的价值链吸收技能。", "index": 3956}
{"en": "By 2030, one in every five people on the planet will be African.", "zh": "到2030年，全世界五分之一的人口都将生活在非洲。", "index": 3957}
{"en": "Because of its size alone, Africa’s labor force will have the potential to drive global growth for decades.", "zh": "光是这一人口规模就决定了非洲劳动力将有望成为全球几十年增长的引擎。", "index": 3958}
{"en": "But to do so, Africans must implement the necessary reforms today.", "zh": "但要实现这一点，非洲人必须从现在开始进行不要的改革。", "index": 3959}
{"en": "As our demographic dividend matures, governments, institutions, and organizations must help position young people for success.", "zh": "随着我们的人口红利逐渐成熟，政府、机构和组织必须帮助年轻人做好成功的准备。", "index": 3960}
{"en": "If African countries can meet this challenge, prolonged economic growth – at home and abroad – will be the reward.", "zh": "如果非洲国家能够战胜这一挑战，长期经济增长可期 — — 不管是国内还是国外。", "index": 3961}
{"en": "Africa’s Path from Poverty", "zh": "非洲脱贫之路", "index": 3962}
{"en": "BEIJING – All low-income countries have the potential for dynamic economic growth.", "zh": "北京—所有低收入国家都有实现充满活力的经济增长的潜力。", "index": 3963}
{"en": "We know this because we have seen it happen repeatedly: a poor, agrarian economy transforms itself into a middle- or even high-income urban economy in one or two generations.", "zh": "我们知道这一点，因为过去曾经一再发生这一幕：贫穷的农村经济在一两代人的时间里摇身一变成为中等收入甚至高收入城市经济。", "index": 3964}
{"en": "The key is to capture the window of opportunity for industrialization arising from the relocation of light manufacturing from higher-income countries.", "zh": "关键是抓住高收入国家轻型制造业重新布局带来的工业化机会窗口。", "index": 3965}
{"en": "That was true in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, and it remains true today.", "zh": "在十九和二十世纪是如此，今天仍然是如此。", "index": 3966}
{"en": "Japan seized its opportunity in the years following World War II, using labor-intensive industries, such as textiles and simple electronics, to drive its economy until rising labor costs eroded its comparative advantage in those sectors.", "zh": "日本在二战后抓住了这一机会，用劳动密集型行业（如防止和简单电子）驱动经济，直至劳动力成本遏制了这些行业的比较优势。", "index": 3967}
{"en": "That shift then allowed other low-income Asian economies – South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and to some extent Malaysia and Thailand – to follow in Japan's footsteps.", "zh": "接着，这一转变又让低收入亚洲经济体 — — 韩国、中国台湾、中国香港、新加坡以及某种程度上的马来西亚和泰国 — — 效仿了日本的榜样。", "index": 3968}
{"en": "China, of course, is the region's most recent traveler along this well-trodden path.", "zh": "当然，中国是这条老路上的最新旅客。", "index": 3969}
{"en": "After more than three decades of breakneck economic growth, it has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries on earth to the world's largest economy.", "zh": "在经历了三十多年的高速增长后，中国已经从世界最贫穷国家之一转变为世界最大经济体。", "index": 3970}
{"en": "And now that China, too, is beginning to lose its comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries, other developing countries – especially in Africa – are set to take its place.", "zh": "而如今，中国也开始失去其在劳动密集型行业的比较优势，其他发展中国家 — — 特别是非洲国家 — — 即将取代中国的位置。", "index": 3971}
{"en": "Indeed, ever since the Industrial Revolution, the rise of light manufacturing has driven a dramatic rise in national income.", "zh": "事实上，自工业革命以来，轻型制造业的崛起驱动了国民收入的大幅上升。", "index": 3972}
{"en": "The United Kingdom's economic transformation started with textiles.", "zh": "英国经济转型从纺织业开始。", "index": 3973}
{"en": "In Belgium, France, Sweden, Denmark, Italy, and Switzerland, light manufacturing led the way.", "zh": "比利时、法国、瑞典、丹麦、意大利和瑞士都是轻型制造业领路。", "index": 3974}
{"en": "Similarly, in the United States, cities like Boston, Baltimore, and Philadelphia became centers for producing textiles, garments, and shoes.", "zh": "类似地，在美国，波士顿、巴尔的摩和费城等城市也都曾经是纺织品、服装和鞋子的生产中心。", "index": 3975}
{"en": "Until recently, few believed that Africa, too, could become a center for modern manufacturing.", "zh": "知道最近，仍很少有人相信非洲也可以成为现代制造业的中心。", "index": 3976}
{"en": "But, with the right policies, there is no reason why African countries could not follow a similar trajectory.", "zh": "但是，有正确的政策，没有理由认为非洲国家不可能走上同样的轨迹。", "index": 3977}
{"en": "Consider land-locked Ethiopia, which only ten years ago seemed to be an especially bad bet.", "zh": "以内陆国家埃塞俄比亚为例。 十年前，它看起来仍然毫无前途。", "index": 3978}
{"en": "But then the country built an industrial park near Addis Ababa and invited the Chinese shoemaker Huajian to open a factory there.", "zh": "但随后它在亚的斯亚贝巴附近建设了一个工业园，邀请中国制鞋商华建国际前去设厂。", "index": 3979}
{"en": "Huajian opened its doors in January 2012 with two production lines and some 600 workers.", "zh": "华建国际在2012年开张，拥有两条生产线和600名左右的工人。", "index": 3980}
{"en": "By the end of the year, it had employed 2,000 Ethiopians and doubled the country's exports of leather shoes.", "zh": "到当年年底，华建国际雇用了2,000名埃塞俄比亚人，让埃塞俄比亚皮鞋出口翻了一番。", "index": 3981}
{"en": "Today, the company has 3,500 workers in Ethiopia producing more than two million shoes a year.", "zh": "如今，华建国际在埃塞俄比亚有3,500名工人，每年生产超过两百万双鞋。", "index": 3982}
{"en": "In 2013, spurred by Huajian's success, the Ethiopian government created a new industrial park, with space for 22 factory units.", "zh": "2013年，受华建国际成功的鼓舞，埃塞俄比亚政府建造了一个可容纳22个工厂单位的新工业园。", "index": 3983}
{"en": "Within three months, all of them had been leased by export-oriented companies from Turkey, Korea, Taiwan, China, and elsewhere.", "zh": "不出三个月，所有单位被来自土耳其、韩国、中国台湾、中国和其他地区的出口导向型公司租赁一空。", "index": 3984}
{"en": "The World Bank has provided $250 million to support the continued construction of these industrial parks.", "zh": "世界银行提供了2.5亿美元支持工业园的继续建设。", "index": 3985}
{"en": "The Ethiopian success story is just the start.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚的成功故事只是个开始。", "index": 3986}
{"en": "As investors learn more about Africa, they will increasingly see what it has to offer.", "zh": "随着投资者对非洲了解的深入，他们将日益看到非洲的计划。", "index": 3987}
{"en": "Indeed, the cost of labor in Africa is competitive enough that Ethiopia could attract companies from countries as poor as Bangladesh.", "zh": "事实上，非洲劳动力成本优势非常大，埃塞俄比亚甚至可以吸引孟加拉国等穷国的公司。", "index": 3988}
{"en": "Africa has a surplus of agricultural labor and too few other jobs.", "zh": "非洲农业劳动力过生，其他工作岗位又过少。", "index": 3989}
{"en": "As foreign firms launch operations in the labor-intensive sectors in which Africa has a comparative advantage, they will train the local workforce.", "zh": "只要外国企业在非洲拥有比较优势的劳动密集型行业开展经营，就能训练本地劳动力。", "index": 3990}
{"en": "Some workers will become managers.", "zh": "一些工人将变为管理者。", "index": 3991}
{"en": "They will become familiar with the technology and learn how to maintain consistent quality in the production line.", "zh": "他们将熟悉技术，学习如何维持生产线的质量。", "index": 3992}
{"en": "They will establish contacts with international buyers and investors.", "zh": "他们将与国际买家和投资者签订合同。", "index": 3993}
{"en": "And, eventually, some of them will be able to raise capital and start firms of their own – export companies owned and operated by Africans.", "zh": "最终，他们中的一些人将能够筹集资本自己创业 — — 非洲人拥有和经营的出口公司。", "index": 3994}
{"en": "Mauritius shows the path ahead.", "zh": "毛里求斯就是很好的例子。", "index": 3995}
{"en": "In the 1970s, the government set up industrial parks to process textiles and garments for export.", "zh": "20世纪70年代，毛里求斯政府建设了工业园生产纺织品和服装以供出口。", "index": 3996}
{"en": "At the time, most of the owners were from Taiwan or Hong Kong; today, more than 70% of the island's industrial companies are locally owned.", "zh": "当时，一些工厂的所有者来自中国台湾和中国香港；如今，毛里求斯70%以上的工业公司为本国所有。", "index": 3997}
{"en": "A carefully focused export strategy is crucial.", "zh": "谨慎而集中的出口战略至关重要。", "index": 3998}
{"en": "The international development community and many African governments want to work toward regional integration, linking the markets of 55 African countries.", "zh": "国际发展机构和许多非洲国家政府希望朝地区一体化方向努力，将55个非洲国家的市场联系起来。", "index": 3999}
{"en": "This might have its advantages, but it should not be a priority.", "zh": "这也许会带来优势，但不适合作为当务之急。", "index": 4000}
{"en": "Africa today accounts for just 1.9% of global GDP, compared to 21% for the United States and 23% for Europe.", "zh": "如今，非洲只占全球ＧＤＰ的１.９ ％ ， 而美国为21 % ， 欧洲为23 % 。", "index": 4001}
{"en": "Developing countries must use their limited resources in the most effective way, and there is no question where the most attractive opportunities in Africa are to be found.", "zh": "发展中国家必须将有限的资源用在效率最高的地方，毫无疑问，非洲最诱人的机会还有待发现。", "index": 4002}
{"en": "For example, instead of investing heavily in the infrastructure needed for regional integration, a country like Ethiopia would be better off building industrial parks and linking them by road to ports in Djibouti.", "zh": "比如，埃塞俄比��等国家不应该大量投资于地区一体化所需要的基础设施，投资于建设工业园并用公路将它们与吉布提的港口连接起来效果更好。", "index": 4003}
{"en": "With the right growth strategy, far-reaching change can come within a person's lifetime – sometimes more than once.", "zh": "有了正确的增长战略，我们在有生之年就可以看到深远的变化 — — 甚至多次变化。", "index": 4004}
{"en": "My native Taiwan is now a high-income economy.", "zh": "我的出生地台湾如今已是高收入经济体。", "index": 4005}
{"en": "But when I was born there, in 1952, the island was poorer than almost every country in Africa.", "zh": "但在1952年我出生时，台湾岛比非洲几乎所有国家都要穷。", "index": 4006}
{"en": "Then it happened to me again.", "zh": "后来我再一次经历了这一转变。", "index": 4007}
{"en": "I moved to mainland China in 1979, when the country's per capita income was less than one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa's.", "zh": "1979年我来到中国大陆，当时，中国大陆人均收入只有撒哈拉以南非洲的不到三分之一。", "index": 4008}
{"en": "Today, China has become an upper-middle-income country, and it is on track to become a high-income country by 2020.", "zh": "如今，中国已成为中高收入国家，并且极有可能在2020年步入高收入行列。", "index": 4009}
{"en": "My hope is that I can witness a third economic transformation in my lifetime, this time in Ethiopia and other countries in Africa.", "zh": "我希望能在我的有生之年看到第三次经济转型 — — 在埃塞俄比亚和其他非洲国家。", "index": 4010}
{"en": "If they stay on the tried and tested path of those who have gone before, there is every chance that I will.", "zh": "如果它们能够坚持其他国家已经尝试并考验过的道路，我的这一愿望实现的可能性相当大。", "index": 4011}
{"en": "The Promise of Digital Health", "zh": "数字医疗的憧憬", "index": 4012}
{"en": "BASEL – Africa has changed remarkably, and for the better, since I first worked as a young doctor in Angola some 20 years ago.", "zh": "巴塞尔—自20年前年轻的我在安哥拉行医以来，非洲已经发生了天翻地覆的变化 — — 越变越好。", "index": 4013}
{"en": "But no change has been more obvious than the way the continent has adopted mobile technology.", "zh": "但变化最显著的地方还是非洲的移动技术。", "index": 4014}
{"en": "People in Africa – and, indeed, throughout low- and middle-income countries – are seizing the opportunities that technology provides, using mobile phones for everything from making payments to issuing birth certificates, to gaining access to health care.", "zh": "非洲人 — — 实际上，是所有中低收入国家的人 — — 正在抓住技术所提供的机会，将移动电话应用于从支付到颁发出生证和获得医疗服务的方方面面。", "index": 4015}
{"en": "The benefit of mobile technologies lies in access.", "zh": "移动技术的优势在于通道。", "index": 4016}
{"en": "Barriers like geographical distance and low resources, which have long prevented billions of people from getting the care they need, are much easier to overcome in the digital age.", "zh": "地理距离和资源匮乏等障碍长期阻碍数十亿人获得他们所需要的看护，而在数字时代，这些障碍可以轻易克服。", "index": 4017}
{"en": "And, indeed, there are countless ways in which technology can be deployed to improve health-care access and delivery.", "zh": "事实上，技术可以通过数不清的方式用于改善医疗普及和实现（access and delivery ） 。", "index": 4018}
{"en": "Of course, this is not new information, and a growing number of technology-based health initiatives have taken shape in recent years.", "zh": "当然，这并非什么新消息，并且近几年来也取得了越来越多的基于技术的医疗创新。", "index": 4019}
{"en": "But only a few have reached scale, and achieved long-term sustainability; the majority of projects have not made it past the pilot phase.", "zh": "但只有少数创新形成了规模并实现了长期可持续性；大部分项目尚未渡过实验阶段。", "index": 4020}
{"en": "The result is a highly fragmented landscape of digital solutions – one that, in some cases, can add extra strain to existing health systems.", "zh": "结果是数字方案呈现出高度的碎片化特征 — — 在某些例子中，这给现有医疗体系带来了额外的约束。", "index": 4021}
{"en": "The first step to addressing this problem is to identify which factors breed success – and which impede it.", "zh": "解决这一问题的第一步是并别那些因素能带来成功 — — 以及哪些因素阻碍成功。", "index": 4022}
{"en": "Here, perhaps the most important observation relates to how the solution is linked to the reality on the ground.", "zh": "在这方面，最重要的观察与方案如何与现实联系起来有关。", "index": 4023}
{"en": "After all, technology is an enabler for the innovation of health-care delivery, not an end in itself.", "zh": "毕竟，技术只是医疗实现的创新的促成因素，其本身绝非终点。", "index": 4024}
{"en": "Solutions that focus on end-users, whether health practitioners or patients, have the best chance of succeeding.", "zh": "注重终端用户 — — 不管是医生还是患者 — — 的方案最有可能取得成功。", "index": 4025}
{"en": "Fundamental to this approach is the recognition that what users need are not necessarily the most advanced technologies, but rather solutions that are easy to use and implement.", "zh": "这一方法的关键是认识到用户需要的东西未必是最先进的技术，而是便于使用和实施的方案。", "index": 4026}
{"en": "In fact, seemingly outdated technologies like voice and text messages can be far more useful tools for the intended users than the latest apps or cutting-edge innovations in, say, nanotechnology.", "zh": "事实上，看似过时的技术，如语音和文字短信，可以成为对预期用户极为有用的工具，远比最新APP或（比如）纳米技术的尖端创新更有用。", "index": 4027}
{"en": "Consider the Community-based Hypertension Improvement Project in Ghana, run by the Novartis Foundation, which I lead, and FHI 360.", "zh": "以加纳基于社区的高血压改善计划为例。 该计划由我所领导的诺华基金会（Novartis Foundation）和FHI 360负责运营。", "index": 4028}
{"en": "The project supports patients in self-managing their condition through regular mobile medication reminders, as well as advice on necessary lifestyle changes.", "zh": "该计划支持患者通过定期移动医疗提醒功能，根据必要的生活方式改变建议进行自我管理。", "index": 4029}
{"en": "This approach is successful because it is patient-centered and leverages information and communication technology (ICT) tools that are readily available and commonly used.", "zh": "这一方法取得成功的原因是它已患者为中心，并利用现成和常用的信息和通讯技术（ICT）工具。", "index": 4030}
{"en": "In a country where mobile penetration exceeds 80% but only a few people have smartphones, such simple solutions can have the greatest impact.", "zh": "加纳的移动电话渗透率超过80 % ， 但只有少数人拥有智能手机，但如此简单的方案仍起到了最大的效果。", "index": 4031}
{"en": "For health practitioners, digital solutions must be perceived as boosting efficiency, rather than adding to their already-heavy workload.", "zh": "对医疗工作者而言，数字方案必须让他们感到能够增加效率，而不是徒增已经十分沉重的工作负担。", "index": 4032}
{"en": "Co-creating solutions with people experienced in delivering health care in low-resource settings can help to ensure that the solutions are adopted at scale.", "zh": "与富有在低资源条件下实现医疗服务的经验的人士合作制定方案有助于确保方案可以形成规模化实施。", "index": 4033}
{"en": "For example, the telemedicine network that the Novartis Foundation and its partners rolled out with the Ghana Health Service was a direct response to the need, expressed by health-care practitioners on the ground, to expand the reach of medical expertise.", "zh": "比如，诺华基金会及其合作伙伴与加纳卫生部共同开展的远程医疗网络直接响应一线医疗工作者扩大医疗专家覆盖范围的要求。", "index": 4034}
{"en": "The network connects frontline health workers with a simple phone call to consultation centers in referral hospitals several hours away, where doctors and specialists are available around-the-clock.", "zh": "该网络让一线卫生工作者一个电话就能接通数小时里程之外的转诊医院咨询中心，那里的医生和专家随时候命。", "index": 4035}
{"en": "From the outset, the project was a response to an expressed need to expand the reach of medical expertise, and was fully operated on the ground by Ghana Health Service staff, which made this model sustainable at scale.", "zh": "从一���始，该项目就是为了响应扩大医疗专家覆盖面的要求，并完全由加纳卫生部工作人员负责运营，这让该模式实现上规模、可持续。", "index": 4036}
{"en": "To realize the full potential of digital health, solutions need to be integrated into national health systems.", "zh": "为了充分实现数字医疗的潜力，解决方案必须与国家卫生系统相结合。", "index": 4037}
{"en": "Only then can digital technology accelerate progress toward universal health coverage and address countries’ priority health needs.", "zh": "惟其如此，数字技术才能加快全民医疗覆盖和解决国家紧迫医疗需求的进程。", "index": 4038}
{"en": "Collaboration across the health and ICT sectors, both public and private, is essential.", "zh": "医疗和ICT的合作 — — 包括私人和公共合作 — — 至关重要。", "index": 4039}
{"en": "Multidisciplinary partnerships driven by the sustained leadership of senior government officials must guide progress, beginning at the planning stage.", "zh": "必须通过高级政府官员的持续领导推动的多学科合作来指引进程，第一步是规划阶段。", "index": 4040}
{"en": "Intra-governmental collaboration, dedicated financing for digital health solutions, and effective governance mechanisms will also be vital to successful strategies.", "zh": "致力于为数字卫生解决方案提供融资的政府间合作以及有效的治理机制也是成功战略的关键。", "index": 4041}
{"en": "Digital technologies offer huge opportunities to improve the way health care is delivered.", "zh": "数字技术为我们提供了改善医疗实现方式的巨大的机会。", "index": 4042}
{"en": "If we are to seize them, we must learn from past experience.", "zh": "要想把握这些机会，我们必须从过去的经验中汲取教训。", "index": 4043}
{"en": "By remaining focused on the reality of end-users and on priority health needs, rather than being dazzled by the latest technology, we can fulfil the promise of digital health.", "zh": "通过专注于终端用户的现实和最重要的医疗需求，而不是迷失于最新技术，我们能够实现数字医疗的憧憬", "index": 4044}
{"en": "Confronting Africa’s Water Challenge", "zh": "直面非洲的水资源挑战", "index": 4045}
{"en": "ABIDJAN – Water is essential for life, and yet it is scarce in many parts of the world.", "zh": "阿比让 — — 水对生命而言必不可少，但世界许多地区都面临水资源稀缺。", "index": 4046}
{"en": "Owing to the effects of climate change, Africa is experiencing its worst drought since 1945, especially in Southern Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Northern Nigeria.", "zh": "由于气候变化的影响，非洲正在经历1945年来最严重的干旱，尤其是在南苏丹、索马里、埃塞俄比亚和北尼日利亚等地区。", "index": 4047}
{"en": "These fragile areas now need the global community’s support.", "zh": "上述脆弱地区现在需要国际社会的支持。", "index": 4048}
{"en": "We need to build resilient systems to ensure access to potable water for all people, and to improve water-delivery and sanitation provisions in Africa’s rapidly growing urban areas.", "zh": "我们需要建设能确保为所有人提供饮用水的弹性系统，并在非洲快速发展的城市区域改善供水和卫生设施。", "index": 4049}
{"en": "We should begin by expanding Africans’ capacity to harness wastewater.", "zh": "我们首先应当从提高非洲人利用废水的能力开始。", "index": 4050}
{"en": "With investment and proper management, wastewater can become a sustainable source of wealth for many Africans, with added benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and environmental sustainability.", "zh": "通过投资和恰当的管理，废水可以为许多非洲人持续提供财富，并有益于提高人类健康、农业生产率和可持续的环境保护。", "index": 4051}
{"en": "Over the past six years, the African Development Bank has invested $3.3 billion in projects to expand access to water and improve sanitation, with around $2.2 billion of that going to urban services that reach at least 17 million people.", "zh": "过去六年来，非洲开发银行已经投资33亿美元用于拓展饮用水和卫生设施项目，其中约22亿美元被用于至少惠及1，700万人的城市服务。", "index": 4052}
{"en": "The AfDB supports an integrated urban water-management model (IUWM) that, in keeping with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6, enables communities to derive a sustainable income from management of urban liquid and solid waste.", "zh": "非洲开发银行支持一种综合性城市水资源管理模式（IUWM ） ， 这种模式贯彻联合国可持续发展目标第六条的精神，确保民众能够从城市液体和固体废物管理中获得可持续收入。", "index": 4053}
{"en": "IUWM efforts require a significant initial investment, and come with steep capital and operational costs.", "zh": "综合性城市水资源管理模式需要大量的初期投资，之后的资金和运营成本同样是十分可观的。", "index": 4054}
{"en": "Only a few African cities collect and treat any more than 20% of the wastewater generated through centralized wastewater-management systems.", "zh": "目前仅有少数几个非洲城市通过集中废水管理系统搜集并处理超过20%的废水。", "index": 4055}
{"en": "The remaining 80% constitutes a huge untapped source of potentially valuable liquid and solid waste.", "zh": "其余80%具有潜在价值的大量液体和固体废物完全没有被加以利用。", "index": 4056}
{"en": "With the right investment, foresight, and commitment, this underappreciated resource can create jobs and deliver sustainable growth.", "zh": "如果有恰当的投资、远见和承诺，上述被严重低估的资源可以创造就业并带来可持续增长。", "index": 4057}
{"en": "Wastewater management is thus a central feature of the AfDB’s strategic priorities, known as the High 5s, which aim to improve Africans’ quality of life, boost public health, achieve gender equality, create jobs, and increase communities’ resilience to the effects of climate change.", "zh": "废水管理也因此成为非洲开发银行重点战略的核心特征。 这项被称为High 5s的计划旨在提高非洲人的生活质量、促进公共卫生、实现两性平等、创造就业机会，并使社会更能从容应对气候变化的影响。", "index": 4058}
{"en": "Water will also play a key role in reaching the High 5s’ industrialization and sustainable-farming objectives.", "zh": "同时，水资源还将在实现High 5s工业化和可持续农业目标方面发挥关键的作用。", "index": 4059}
{"en": "In Yaoundé, Cameroon, the AfDB helped to protect some 300,000 people and their property by reducing the frequency of floods from 15 incidents per year to just three.", "zh": "在喀麦隆首都雅温得，非洲开发银行通过将每年发生洪灾的频率从15次降低到仅仅3次来为 300,000民众及其财产提供保护。", "index": 4060}
{"en": "And with a $40 million sanitation project, the AfDB helped to lower the proportion of the city’s malaria-afflicted population from 16% to 12%.", "zh": "而且非洲开发银行投资的一项4，000万美元的卫生项目协助将雅温得市疟疾感染的人口比例从16%降到12%左右。", "index": 4061}
{"en": "In Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, the $23 million AfDB-funded Gourou Basin Integrated Watershed Management Project significantly reduced flooding throughout the Gourou Basin, and improved 2.8 million inhabitants’ livelihoods.", "zh": "在科特迪瓦首都阿比让，非洲开发银行投资的价值2，300万美元的古鲁盆地综合流域管理项目大大减少了古鲁盆地的洪灾次数，并显著改善了280万居民的生活。", "index": 4062}
{"en": "In Zimbabwe, after 4,300 people died in the 2008-2009 cholera pandemic, the AfDB and other donors supported the $43.6 million Urgent Water Supply and Sanitation Rehabilitation Project, which made emergency repairs to wastewater systems in urban areas, helping 2.5 million people.", "zh": "在津巴布韦，在4，300人死于2008-2009年爆发的霍乱疫情后，非洲开发银行和其他捐助者出资支持了4，360万美元的紧急供水和卫生设施修复项目，该项目对城市地区废水系统进行了紧急维修，惠及当地超过250万人口。", "index": 4063}
{"en": "All AfDB-supported wastewater-management systems follow sustainability strategies to ensure that they enhance economic gains, benefit local communities, and remain affordable.", "zh": "所有非洲开发银行支持的废水管理系统都遵循可持续发展原则，以确保能提高经济收益、惠及当地社会并让当地民众负担得起相应的费用。", "index": 4064}
{"en": "These projects also help countries to harness and use waste flows, by converting sewage to biogas and fertilizer.", "zh": "这些项目还通过将污水转化为沼气和化肥来帮助相关国家利用废水和废物。", "index": 4065}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the AfDB’s African Water Facility (AWF) complements its project-finance work by attracting downstream investments in water infrastructure.", "zh": "不仅如此，非洲开发银行的非洲水利设施（AWF）项目还通过吸引下游资金投向水利基础设施很好地补充了其项目融资工作。", "index": 4066}
{"en": "In February, flooding and strong winds from Tropical Storm Dineo devastated the coast of Mozambique and had a severe impact on the local population.", "zh": "今年2月，热带风暴迪尼奥造成的洪水和飓风摧毁了莫桑比克海岸，严重影响了当地民众的生产生活。", "index": 4067}
{"en": "But just a few weeks later, the AWF launched a feasibility study to improve livelihoods and climate-change resilience throughout Mozambique’s Inhambane Province, where the storm struck.", "zh": "但短短几星期后，非洲水利设施计划就启动了一项可行性调查，目的是改善遭受风暴袭击的莫桑比克伊尼扬巴内省适应气候变化的能力和民众生活。", "index": 4068}
{"en": "In collaboration with the Global Water Partnership, the AWF is implementing IUWM systems in five African cities, including Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Marondera in Zimbabwe.", "zh": "非洲水利设施计划与全球水体合作伙伴组织一道，正在包括刚果民主共和国的金沙萨和津巴布韦马龙德拉在内的非洲五大城市推行综合性城市水资源管理项目。", "index": 4069}
{"en": "In the DRC alone, IUWM systems can be expected to improve water delivery and sanitation for 17 million people by 2030.", "zh": "截止2030年，仅在刚果民主共和国一地，综合性城市水资源管理系统就可望帮助1，700万人改善供水和卫生设施。", "index": 4070}
{"en": "The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is also tapping into the AfDB’s expertise, by providing an $18 million grant to fund Phase II of the AfDB’s Urban Sanitation Program.", "zh": "比尔和梅林达·盖茨基金同样在利用非洲开发银行的专业知识，通过提供1，800万美元的赠款来支持非洲开发银行第二阶段的城市卫生项目。", "index": 4071}
{"en": "This effort will help to develop business innovations for affordable and sustainable sanitation services in Africa, which could reach two million urban dwellers directly and another six million people through subsidiary projects.", "zh": "这项工作将有助于催生能为非洲提供廉价、可持续卫生服务的商业创新，该计划可以令两百万城市居民直接受益，并通过附属项目惠及另外600万人。", "index": 4072}
{"en": "Africa’s wastewater-management challenges are substantial and complex.", "zh": "非洲面临的废水管理挑战巨大而又复杂。", "index": 4073}
{"en": "But the AfDB is determined to provide opportunities that pay dividends for African communities – in public health, improved sanitation, economic development, and environmental protection.", "zh": "但非洲开发银行决心为非洲民众提供能够带来红利的机会，无论涉及到公共保健、卫生改善、经济发展还是环境保护。", "index": 4074}
{"en": "Improving the quality of life for all Africans will require political commitment, public-private partnerships, and robust public involvement.", "zh": "改善所有非洲人的生活质量需要政治决心、公私合作以及积极的公众参与。", "index": 4075}
{"en": "With the High 5s framework, the AfDB is working to bring these three ingredients together.", "zh": "在High 5s框架下，非洲开发银行正在努力将所有三项要素加以整合。", "index": 4076}
{"en": "All stakeholders – in Africa and internationally – must redouble our efforts to ensure clean, affordable water for all, and to support African countries suffering through a historic drought.", "zh": "非洲和全球所有利益相关方必须加倍努力，确保为所有人提供洁净廉价的日常用水，并且为正在遭受着历史性旱灾的非洲国家提供援助。", "index": 4077}
{"en": "We have a moral obligation to do so.", "zh": "这样做是我们的道义义务。", "index": 4078}
{"en": "After all, water means life.", "zh": "毕竟，水和生命是联系在一起的。", "index": 4079}
{"en": "Is Africa Still Rising?", "zh": "非洲仍在崛起吗？", "index": 4080}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Between 2000 and 2014, Africa grew at a strong clip, fueling belief in the narrative of an “Africa rising.”", "zh": "华盛顿—从2000年到2014年，非洲实现了强劲增长，这带来了一种“非洲崛起”的信念。", "index": 4081}
{"en": "But, since 2015, growth across Sub-Saharan Africa has weakened, and the poor outlook for commodity prices has cast doubt on Africa’s economic promise, leading many to question the “Africa rising” narrative – and some to pronounce it dead.", "zh": "但2015年后，整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区的增长有所放缓，而大宗商品价格的悲观前景也让人们开始质疑非洲的经济前途，许多人开始怀疑“非洲崛起”叙事 — — 更有人宣布非洲崛起的概念已死。", "index": 4082}
{"en": "Such skepticism is, to some extent, understandable.", "zh": "从某种程度上说，这样的怀疑不难理解。", "index": 4083}
{"en": "The 2014 oil-price shock hit several African economies especially hard, and played a role in pushing aggregate growth down from 5-6% in 2004-2014 to just 2.5% in 2015-2017 – a rate that barely keeps up with population growth.", "zh": "2014年石油价格冲击给一些非洲经济体造成了非常严重的影响，也让总体增长率从2004—2014年间的5—6%下降到2015—2017年的2.5 % — —这一增长率还赶不上人口增长率。", "index": 4084}
{"en": "Moreover, the continent's three largest economies – Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa – have experienced major declines in performance.", "zh": "此外，非洲的三个最大经济体 — — 安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非，表现都出现了大幅下滑。", "index": 4085}
{"en": "Last year, Angola and South Africa’s economies stagnated, while the Nigerian economy actually contracted for the first time since 1991.", "zh": "去年，安哥拉和南非经济出现停滞，而尼日利亚出现了1991年以来的首次实际萎缩。", "index": 4086}
{"en": "The latest projections suggest that these economies will experience tepid recoveries in the coming years.", "zh": "最新预测表明，这些经济体未来几年的复苏也将非常缓慢。", "index": 4087}
{"en": "But Africa’s skeptics have overlooked a number of important factors.", "zh": "但非洲怀疑派忽视了许多重要因素。", "index": 4088}
{"en": "For starters, when one sets the three largest economies aside, Sub-Saharan Africa’s aggregate-growth rate for this year rises from 2.5% to almost 4%.", "zh": "首先，如果你剔除掉三个最大的经济体，那么今年撒哈拉以南非洲总体增长率就能从2.5%增加到近4 % 。", "index": 4089}
{"en": "That is faster than the 3.5% rate at which the global economy is currently growing.", "zh": "这一数字高于当前全球经济增长率3.5 % 。", "index": 4090}
{"en": "In fact, five of the ten fastest-growing economies in the world are in Africa.", "zh": "事实上，全世界十个增长最快的经济体中，有五个来自非洲。", "index": 4091}
{"en": "And over the next five years, around half of all Sub-Saharan economies will expand at an average rate similar to or higher than that which prevailed during the “Africa rising” heyday.", "zh": "而在未来五年中，大约一半的撒哈拉以南经济体将实现不亚于“非洲崛起”顶峰时期的平均增长率。", "index": 4092}
{"en": "Furthermore, high commodity prices were just one factor in the region’s strong economic performance between 2000 and 2014.", "zh": "此外，高企的大宗商品价格只是2000—2014年间该地区经济表现强劲的一个因素。", "index": 4093}
{"en": "Many African countries have made vast improvements to macroeconomic management, governance, and the business environment, and entrepreneurship is on the rise.", "zh": "许多非洲国家在宏观经济管理、治理和营商环境方面取得了巨大进步，企业家精神也在蓬勃发展。", "index": 4094}
{"en": "Even with lower commodity prices, these developments will continue to bolster many African economies.", "zh": "即使大宗商品价格有所下跌，这些发展趋势仍能够支撑许多非洲经济体。", "index": 4095}
{"en": "Today’s skepticism may reflect lasting memories from a darker period, and fears that Africa’s progress has not been sufficiently consolidated.", "zh": "今天的怀疑论也许体现了对黑暗时代的记忆，以及对非洲的进步没有得到充分巩固的担忧。", "index": 4096}
{"en": "From the 1970s to the mid-1990s, dictators ruled in many African countries, and the institutions necessary for sustaining strong economic growth were fragile at best.", "zh": "从20世纪70年代到90年代中期，许多非洲国家由独裁者统治，维持强劲经济增长所需要的制度十分脆弱。", "index": 4097}
{"en": "With civil wars constantly shredding the social fabric in many countries, the continent experienced decades of tepid economic growth.", "zh": "内战不断地摧残着许多国家的社会结构，几十年来，整个非洲经济增长十分缓慢。", "index": 4098}
{"en": "By 2000, it had been reduced to what The Economist called “Hopeless Africa.”", "zh": "到2000年，非洲已经沦为《经济学人 》 （ The Economist）所谓的“没有希望的非洲 ” 。", "index": 4099}
{"en": "But those days are gone.", "zh": "但这些都是老黄历了。", "index": 4100}
{"en": "Policymakers across the continent have sustained the 1990s-era reforms that set the stage for the subsequent period of high growth.", "zh": "非洲决策者保持着20世纪90年代的改革，为后续高速增长打下了基础。", "index": 4101}
{"en": "Although there is still much work to be done, the economic and business environment in many African countries has continued to improve, and institutions and governance have grown stronger.", "zh": "尽管还有很多工作有待完成，但许多非洲国家的经济和营商环境持续改善，制度和治理也变得更加强大。", "index": 4102}
{"en": "Owing to new information and communication technologies, Africans, particularly young Africans, are better informed, more engaged in civil and political discourse, and increasingly capable of holding their leaders accountable.", "zh": "拜新信息和通讯技术所赐，非洲人，特别是非洲年轻人，对信息了解得更多，也更积极地参与民间和政治事务，越来越具备问责领导人的能力。", "index": 4103}
{"en": "ICTs have also unleashed a wave of innovation and entrepreneurship across the continent.", "zh": "信息和通讯技术还在非洲释放出一股创新和企业家精神的浪潮。", "index": 4104}
{"en": "These positive trends are not likely to be reversed, and will continue to improve the economic conditions in Africa, even if commodity prices do not rebound.", "zh": "这些积极的趋势很难逆转，将继续改善非洲的经济环境，即使大宗商品价格无法反弹。", "index": 4105}
{"en": "After all, the region’s economic growth averaged 5.6% between 2000 and 2004, before commodity prices had begun their rapid ascent.", "zh": "毕竟，2000—2004年间，大宗商品价格的迅速上涨尚未开始，非洲地区的平均增长率仍高达5.6 % 。", "index": 4106}
{"en": "But that is not to say Africa will be spared from daunting challenges in the years ahead.", "zh": "但这并不是说非洲能够在未来多年里不必面临艰巨挑战。", "index": 4107}
{"en": "Globally, the economic environment will become less favorable for African economies.", "zh": "放眼全球，经济环境对非洲经济体更加不利了。", "index": 4108}
{"en": "In the major advanced economies, interest rates will soon rise, and the political backlash against globalization may force governments to abandon their past commitments to development assistance.", "zh": "在主要发达经济体，利率很快就会上升，而针对全球化的政治反对力量可能迫使政府放弃过去许下的发展援助承诺。", "index": 4109}
{"en": "In light of all this uncertainty, African policymakers should look inward, by focusing on policies to mobilize national resources and finance their economic agendas.", "zh": "面临所有这些不确定性，非洲决策者应该向内看，专注于动员国家资源和经济日程融资政策。", "index": 4110}
{"en": "Those agendas should include a number of key priorities.", "zh": "这些日程应该包括一系列关键性重点。", "index": 4111}
{"en": "African countries need to diversify their economies to withstand future shocks better, while also accelerating the pace of industrialization across the continent.", "zh": "非洲国家需要实现经济多样化，以更好地抵御未来冲击，同时，整个非洲还需要加快工业化步伐。", "index": 4112}
{"en": "Governments will have to find a way to create decent jobs for the 11 million people now entering the region’s labor force every year.", "zh": "政府必须找到办法为每年加入劳动力大军的1,100万非洲人创造体面的工作。", "index": 4113}
{"en": "And they will need to enact policies to reduce poverty, and ensure that prosperity is shared across all cohorts of society.", "zh": "它们还需要采取措施减少贫困，确保繁荣被全体社会所共享。", "index": 4114}
{"en": "These are particularly important goals for Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa.", "zh": "对安哥拉、尼日利亚和南非来说，这些目标尤其重要。", "index": 4115}
{"en": "Angola and Nigeria need to become far less reliant on oil; and South Africa still needs to implement far-reaching reforms to address structural problems that have plagued it since the apartheid era.", "zh": "安哥拉和尼日利亚需要大幅降低对石油的依赖；南非仍然需要实施重大改革措施以解决自种族隔离时代以来困扰它的结构性问题。", "index": 4116}
{"en": "Seeing these projects through will require competent political leaders who are committed to the principles of good governance.", "zh": "真心实意地推行这些工程需要有能力的领导人坚守好治理原则。", "index": 4117}
{"en": "Failure could result in an extended period of low growth.", "zh": "失败可能导致长期低增长。", "index": 4118}
{"en": "But even if Africa’s three largest economies do end up in the doldrums, it will not necessarily seal the fate of the “Africa rising” story.", "zh": "但即使非洲最大的三个经济体最终陷入萧条 ， “ 非洲崛起”的故事也未必可以全盘否定。", "index": 4119}
{"en": "After all, “Africa rising” need not mean “all” of Africa.", "zh": "毕竟 ， “ 非洲崛起”不必是“全部”非洲的崛起。", "index": 4120}
{"en": "From the 1960s to the 1990s, the “Asian Tigers” narrative referred only to Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan, excluding other developing countries in Asia, such as China.", "zh": "从20世纪60年代到90年代 ， “ 亚洲小龙”叙事也仅限于香港、新加坡、韩国和台湾，中国在内的其他亚洲发展中经济体都不在其列。", "index": 4121}
{"en": "Similarly, African economies are increasingly differentiating themselves, and should thus be evaluated individually, on the merits of their respective economic policies.", "zh": "类似地，非洲各经济体本身之间的差异日益扩大，因此，应该根据各自的经济政策的利弊，对它们进行单独的评估。", "index": 4122}
{"en": "Africa Still Rising", "zh": "非洲仍在冉冉升起", "index": 4123}
{"en": "JOHANNESBURG – Is the honeymoon over for African economies?", "zh": "约翰内斯堡 — — 非洲经济体的蜜月期是否已经结束？", "index": 4124}
{"en": "Less than a decade ago, it seemed that the continent’s economic dreams were beginning to come true, with many countries experiencing impressive GDP growth and development.", "zh": "不到十年前，随着许多国家取得惊人的GDP增长和发展，非洲大陆的经济之梦似乎正在变成现实。", "index": 4125}
{"en": "Now, as the harsh reality of the continent’s vulnerability to challenging external conditions has set in, sustaining that growth has proved difficult.", "zh": "现在，随着非洲大陆在充满挑战的外部环境面前的脆弱性逐渐显现，现有的增长速度已经很难保持。", "index": 4126}
{"en": "Encumbered by slowing growth in China, a collapse in commodity prices, and adverse spillover from numerous security crises, Africa’s overall annual GDP growth averaged just 3.3% in 2010-2015, barely keeping up with population growth – and down sharply from the 4.9% recorded from 2000 to 2008.", "zh": "在中国经济增长放缓、大宗商品价格暴跌以及不止一次安全危机的拖累下，非洲的年度总体GDP增长在2010到2015年仅为3.3 % ， 这一速度仅能勉强跟上人口增长 — — 与2000到2008年4.9%的记录相比速度大幅放缓。", "index": 4127}
{"en": "But a deeper look suggests that things may not be as bad as they seem, for two key reasons.", "zh": "但深层次观察表明局势也许不像看上去那样严重，得出这样的结论有两个主要原因。", "index": 4128}
{"en": "First, though average growth has declined, some African economies have thrived in recent years.", "zh": "首先，虽然平均增速有所回落，但某些非洲国家在近年来实现了蓬勃发展。", "index": 4129}
{"en": "Indeed, aggregate GDP has been dragged down since 2010 by faltering growth among oil exporters and security-related crises in the Sahel and North Africa; but in the rest of Africa, GDP growth has accelerated, from 4.1% in 2000-2010 to 4.4% in 2010-2015.", "zh": "事实上，石油出口国经济摇摇欲坠以及萨赫勒和北非地区爆发安全危机已经将2010年以来的GDP总量拉了下来；但在非洲其他地区，GDP发展呈加速之势，从2000到2010年的4.1%增长到2010到2015年的4.4 % 。", "index": 4130}
{"en": "Second, Africa is undergoing a profound long-term transformation, characterized by rapid digitization, urbanization, and growth in the working-age population, which will outnumber the labor force of China and India by 2034.", "zh": "其次，非洲正在经历一次以快速数字化、城市化和劳动年龄人口增长为特色的深刻的长期转型，非洲劳动人口截止2034年将在数量上超过中国和印度。", "index": 4131}
{"en": "That demographic trend could unlock future growth by advancing economic diversification, spurring domestic consumption, and supporting industrialization.", "zh": "这样一种人口趋势完全可能通过推进经济多样化、刺激国内消费和支持产业化来达到解锁未来经济增长的目的。", "index": 4132}
{"en": "In fact, today’s high-growth countries – including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania – have made substantial progress in reducing their dependence on commodity exports, in favor of trade, investment, and domestic consumption.", "zh": "事实上，今天的高增长国家 — — 包括科特迪瓦、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚 — — 都在减少依赖商品出口、发展贸易、投资和国内消费等方面取得了实质性的进展。", "index": 4133}
{"en": "And many lower-growth countries could head down a similar path.", "zh": "而且许多低增长国家也可以走上类似的道路。", "index": 4134}
{"en": "New research by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) shows that spending by Africa’s consumers and businesses already totals $4 trillion.", "zh": "麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）最新研究成果 显示非洲消费者和企业的支出总额已经达到4万亿美元。", "index": 4135}
{"en": "By 2025, private spending could reach $5.6 trillion – $2.1 trillion by households, and $3.5 trillion by businesses.", "zh": "截止2025年，私人开支可能达到5.6万亿美元 — — 其中2.1万亿美元来自家庭部门，而其余3.5万亿美元则来自企业。", "index": 4136}
{"en": "This represents a huge opportunity for Africa���s manufacturers.", "zh": "这为非洲制造企业创造了巨大的机会。", "index": 4137}
{"en": "We believe that Africa can almost double its manufacturing output, to nearly $1 trillion, by 2025, with about 75% of that growth tied to production for local markets.", "zh": "我们认为截止2025年非洲几乎可以实现制造业产出翻番，而相关增长中75%与当地市场生产密切相关。", "index": 4138}
{"en": "The question is whether manufacturers will manage to exploit the growth potential that lies in front of them.", "zh": "问题在于制造企业能否充分利用摆在他们面前的增长潜力。", "index": 4139}
{"en": "African firms have not yet proved capable of meeting existing domestic demand.", "zh": "非洲企业尚未用事实证明自己具备满足现有国内需求的能力。", "index": 4140}
{"en": "Africa still imports about one-third of the food, beverages, and similar processed goods it consumes, whereas the Association of Southeast Asian Nations imports about 20%, and South America’s Mercosur trade bloc imports just 10%.", "zh": "非洲所需的食品、饮料和类似加工产品约1/3仍依靠进口，而东南亚国家协会的进口比重仅为约20 % ， 南美南方共同市场集团进口比重仅为约10 % 。", "index": 4141}
{"en": "Africa even imports 15% of the cement it uses, despite having abundant raw materials to make it at home.", "zh": "甚至连非洲所用水泥的15%都要依靠进口，尽管非洲拥有充足的原材料可以实现国内生产。", "index": 4142}
{"en": "To be sure, African business has made great strides in recent years.", "zh": "可以肯定，非洲企业在近年来取得了长足的进步。", "index": 4143}
{"en": "Today, 400 African companies have annual revenue of more than $1 billion, and 700 have annual revenue of more than $500 million.", "zh": "今天，四百家非洲企业实现年收入超过10亿美元，另外还有七百家年收入超过5亿。", "index": 4144}
{"en": "On the whole, these large companies are growing faster – and generating higher profits – than their global peers.", "zh": "总体而言，与世界其他国家的同行相比，这些大企业正在快速成长 — — 取得的利润也越来越可观。", "index": 4145}
{"en": "But there is still a long way to go.", "zh": "但距离实现目标还有很长的路要走。", "index": 4146}
{"en": "Large African (excluding South African) firms’ average annual revenue of $2 billion is half that of large firms in Brazil, India, Mexico, and Russia.", "zh": "大型非洲企业（除南非外）20亿美元的平均年收入仅为巴西、印度、墨西哥和俄罗斯等国的一半。", "index": 4147}
{"en": "And Africa only has about 60% of the large firms it needs to put it at the same level as the emerging economies.", "zh": "而非洲还要增设40%的大型企业才能与其他新兴经济体等量齐观。", "index": 4148}
{"en": "One key factor limiting firms’ growth is the fragmented nature of the African market, which currently comprises mostly small economies with only limited economic and political linkages.", "zh": "限制企业增长的一个关键因素是非洲市场四分五裂，现有的非洲市场主要由经济和政治联系有限的小型经济体构成。", "index": 4149}
{"en": "There are eight partly overlapping regional trade zones, none of which includes more than half of Africa’s countries.", "zh": "目前部分区域重叠的区域贸易区共有8个，却没有一个囊括了超过一半的非洲国家。", "index": 4150}
{"en": "Only Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa rank in the top 100 of MGI’s Global Connectedness Index.", "zh": "只有埃及、摩洛哥、尼日利亚和南非在麦肯锡全球研究院的全球联通指数中跻身前100位。", "index": 4151}
{"en": "Beyond excessive trade barriers, Africa suffers from inadequate transport links and limits on the free movement of people.", "zh": "除贸易壁垒高企外，人员自由流动和交通联系匮乏同样困扰着非洲。", "index": 4152}
{"en": "Africans need visas to travel to more than half the countries on their own continent.", "zh": "非洲人前往自己大陆的一半以上国家还需要签证。", "index": 4153}
{"en": "The recent launch of the African Union passport is a step in the right direction – but it is only one step.", "zh": "近期推出的非洲联盟护照是朝正确方向迈出的一步 — — 但也仅仅是一步而已。", "index": 4154}
{"en": "A more integrated market would not only enable African companies to create the economies of scale they need to compete; it would also be far more appealing to institutional investors.", "zh": "加强市场融合不仅将为非洲企业创造出竞争所需的规模经济；还可以在很大程度上吸引机构投资者。", "index": 4155}
{"en": "Building such a market must therefore be a top priority for African leaders, as they seek to unleash the continent’s economic potential.", "zh": "建设这样的市场因此必须成为非洲领导人的首要任务，这样才能释放非洲大陆的经济潜能。", "index": 4156}
{"en": "Equally important, Africa’s leaders must work to improve the business environment.", "zh": "非洲领导人必须努力改善营商环境，这一点同样重要。", "index": 4157}
{"en": "Though some progress has been made on this front in the last two decades, non-tariff barriers remain high.", "zh": "尽管过去二十年来这方面已经取得了一定进步，但非关税壁垒依然很高。", "index": 4158}
{"en": "Indeed, regulatory issues are still cited as a serious deterrent to investment.", "zh": "事实上，监管问题依然严重制约着投资。", "index": 4159}
{"en": "Many African businesses – nearly half of companies in Nigeria, and more than one-third in Angola and Egypt – highlight unreliable electricity supplies as a major challenge.", "zh": "许多非洲企业 — — 尼日利亚企业的将近一半、安哥拉和埃及的超过1/3 — — 强调电力供应不可靠对他们构成严重挑战。", "index": 4160}
{"en": "And almost 40% of firms surveyed by the World Bank lament the constraints imposed by competition from informal firms.", "zh": "接受世界银行调查企业中近40%对非正规企业竞争带来的限制深表遗憾 。", "index": 4161}
{"en": "Some of these issues could be addressed relatively quickly.", "zh": "其中某些问题解决起来速度较快。", "index": 4162}
{"en": "Consider the strides Rwanda has made since 2007, when it established a development board to improve its business environment.", "zh": "比如从2007年设立发展委员会改善营商环境以来卢旺达已经取得了很大进展。", "index": 4163}
{"en": "In less than a decade, that board has led the creation of a “one-stop center” to facilitate investment, has overseen streamlined issuance of construction permits, and has pressed successfully for a fixed fee for property registration, the extension of customs hours, and risk-based customs inspections.", "zh": "在不到十年时间里，该委员会已经领导创立了促进投资的“一站式中心 ” 、 一直负责监管建筑许可证的快速发放，并成功促进在财产登记、海关延长营业时间和以经营风险为基础的海关检查领域收取固定费用。", "index": 4164}
{"en": "As a result, Rwanda’s global ranking for the ease of doing business jumped from 143 in 2008 to 32 in 2014.", "zh": "结果导致卢旺达的全球营商环境排名从2008年的第143位跃升至2014年的第32位。", "index": 4165}
{"en": "This success can surely be replicated elsewhere in Africa.", "zh": "非洲其他国家无疑也可以复制这样的成功。", "index": 4166}
{"en": "Despite the challenges some African countries face, the continent’s economic potential remains massive, thanks to favorable demographic dynamics, fast-growing cities, burgeoning domestic markets, and a digital revolution.", "zh": "尽管非洲国家面临诸多挑战，但多亏乐观的人口趋势、快速发展的城市、蓬勃发展的国内市场和数字革命，非洲大陆仍然拥有巨大的经济发展潜能。", "index": 4167}
{"en": "With the right policies, a relentless focus on execution, and a great deal of determination, Africa can still rise.", "zh": "只要政策对路、执行到位、决心不动摇，非洲仍然有崛起的机会。", "index": 4168}
{"en": "Africa’s Arrival", "zh": "非洲发展的时刻到了", "index": 4169}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The African Development Bank (AfDB) has just published its African Economic Outlook for 2018.", "zh": "纽约 — — 非洲开发银行刚刚发布了其2018年非洲经济展望报告。", "index": 4170}
{"en": "This year’s revamped publication – shorter than usual, analytically well-structured, and written in lucid prose, without hyperbole – in some ways mirrors Africa’s own transformation, as it raises hopes that we may at last be witnessing the continent’s long-promised economic arrival.", "zh": "今年经过修订的版本 — — 比往年更简短、分析结构更合理、文风条理清晰不夸张 — — 以某种方式反映了非洲自身的转型，因为它或许让我们最终看到了非洲大陆期待已久的经济发展的希望。", "index": 4171}
{"en": "Africa’s rise has been a long time coming.", "zh": "人们一直在等待非洲的崛起。", "index": 4172}
{"en": "In the 1960s, hopes were high.", "zh": "世纪60年代，外界抱有很高的希望。", "index": 4173}
{"en": "The remarkable leaders of the independence generation – such as Ghana’s Kwame Nkrumah and Kenya’s Jomo Kenyatta – received advice from the world’s top economists.", "zh": "独立一代的杰出领袖 — — 包括加纳的克瓦米·恩克鲁玛和肯尼亚的乔莫·肯雅塔 — — 得到了世界顶级经济学家的顾问服务。", "index": 4174}
{"en": "The Caribbean-born Nobel laureate Arthur Lewis became Nkrumah’s Chief Economic Adviser.", "zh": "加勒比出生的诺贝尔奖得主阿瑟·刘易斯曾担任恩克鲁玛的首席经济顾问。", "index": 4175}
{"en": "In India, we read about these leaders’ friendship with our own post-independence prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and the hope for a new dawn for all emerging economies.", "zh": "在印度，我们读懂了这些领导人与我们自己的后独立期总理尼赫鲁的友谊，也看到了所有新兴经济体新的曙光。", "index": 4176}
{"en": "And many emerging economies did indeed take off.", "zh": "而许多新兴经济体也确实走上了腾飞之路。", "index": 4177}
{"en": "In the late 1960s, some East Asian economies surged ahead.", "zh": "20世纪60年代末，一些东亚国家快速发展。", "index": 4178}
{"en": "Beginning in the early 1980s, China began its decades-long rise.", "zh": "20世纪80年代初开始，中国也踏上了长达十年的崛起之路。", "index": 4179}
{"en": "And, from the early 1990s, India’s economy also began to grow robustly, with annual rates reaching the 9% range by 2005.", "zh": "而从20世纪90年代早期，印度经济也开始强劲增长，2005年的年增长率高达9 % 。", "index": 4180}
{"en": "But Africa remained stagnant, mired in poverty.", "zh": "但非洲仍停滞不前，深陷于贫困当中。", "index": 4181}
{"en": "Ironically, it was the continent’s resource wealth that hampered economic progress, as it fueled conflicts among governments and insurgents eager to control it.", "zh": "颇具讽刺意味的是，这块大陆的资源财富因为引发了政府和急于控制这些财富的武装分子之间的冲突而阻碍了经济进步。", "index": 4182}
{"en": "The resulting political instability attracted outsiders keen to exploit governments’ weakness.", "zh": "由此造成的政局动荡吸引了热衷于利用政府弱点的外来者。", "index": 4183}
{"en": "As the Indian poet and Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore put it in his 1936 poem “Ode to Africa,” which played on perceptions about who is “civilized,” the continent fell prey to “civilization’s barbaric greed,” as the colonists “arrived, manacles in hand/Claws sharper by far than any of your wolves.”", "zh": "印度诗人兼诺贝尔奖得主拉宾德拉纳特·泰戈尔1936年创作了“非洲颂歌 ” ， 他在这首诗中表达了对文明的看法，指出随着手里拿着手铐/爪牙比狼更锋利的殖民者的到来，非洲大陆沦为了“文明世界野蛮贪婪”的猎物。", "index": 4184}
{"en": "Finally, at the turn of the twenty-first century, things began to change for Africa.", "zh": "最终，在21世纪之交，非洲的局面开始发生变化。", "index": 4185}
{"en": "A few dynamic leaders, democratic stirrings, and emerging regional cooperation led to a decline in poverty and a pickup in growth.", "zh": "一些有活力的领导人、活跃的民主事件和新兴的地区合作导致贫困下降、经济增长率上升。", "index": 4186}
{"en": "Commodity exporters faced a setback around 2014, when prices plummeted.", "zh": "大宗商品出口国在2014年前后因为价格大幅下挫而经历了某些挫折。", "index": 4187}
{"en": "But this turned out to be a blessing in disguise, because it forced countries to diversify their economies and increase production – factors that supported renewed growth.", "zh": "但这却逐渐演变成一件变相的好事，因为这迫使各国增加产量并实现经济多元化 — — 而这些因素又支撑了新的增长。", "index": 4188}
{"en": "According to the AfDB report, Africa’s 54 economies grew by 2.2% in 2016, on average, and 3.6% in 2017.", "zh": "非洲开发银行报告显示，非洲54个经济体2016年平均增长2.2 % ， 2017年则增长3.6 % 。", "index": 4189}
{"en": "In 2018, the AfDB predicts, average growth will accelerate to 4.1%, while the World Bank expects Ghana to grow by 8.3%, Ethiopia by 8.2%, and Senegal by 6.9%, placing these countries among the world’s fastest-growing economies.", "zh": "非洲开发银行预测2018年平均增长率将提高到4.1 % ， 而世界银行预期加纳将增长8.3 % ， 埃塞俄比亚8.2 % 、 塞内加尔6.9 % ， 跻身全世界增长最快经济体之列。", "index": 4190}
{"en": "And these figures are not wishful thinking: in 2016, Ethiopia’s GDP grew by 7.6%.", "zh": "这些数字并不是一厢情愿的痴心妄想：2016年，埃塞俄比亚的GDP增长7.6 % 。", "index": 4191}
{"en": "Of course, serious challenges remain.", "zh": "当然，非洲仍然面临严峻的挑战。", "index": 4192}
{"en": "South Africa, the continent’s strongest economy, is now facing the difficult task of tackling its deep-rooted corruption.", "zh": "这块大陆最强劲的经济体南非现在正面临着解决根深蒂固的腐败的艰巨任务。", "index": 4193}
{"en": "Yet, with the African National Congress now apparently determined to replace President Jacob Zuma’s scandal-ridden administration with one led by the party’s new leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, there is reason for hope.", "zh": "但因为非国大目前显然决心用该党新领袖西里尔·拉马福萨来取代雅各布·祖马（Jacob Zuma）总统丑闻缠身的政府，人们有理由充满希望。", "index": 4194}
{"en": "More broadly, many African countries need to find ways to create more employment – and fast.", "zh": "更广义的看，许多非洲国家需要想方设法快速创造更多就业。", "index": 4195}
{"en": "The share of the working-age population is rising faster in Africa than in any other region.", "zh": "非洲劳动年龄人口比例的上升比其他任何地区都快。", "index": 4196}
{"en": "This “demographic dividend” has immense potential.", "zh": "这一“人口红利”可能带来巨大的潜能。", "index": 4197}
{"en": "But if job creation stalls, the unemployed or under-employed are likely to become frustrated – a recipe for conflict.", "zh": "但如果就业创造停滞不前，失业或就业不足者很有可能会感到沮丧 — — 并进而造成冲突。", "index": 4198}
{"en": "Consider the case of Tanzania.", "zh": "以坦桑尼亚为例。", "index": 4199}
{"en": "Thanks to President John Magufuli’s effort to mobilize more domestic revenue to support increased development spending, the economy is doing well.", "zh": "多亏约翰·马古夫里总统努力调动更多国内收入来支持追加发展开支，该国经济目前表现良好。", "index": 4200}
{"en": "But, with roughly 800,000 individuals entering the labor force each year, Tanzania needs much more working capital, better infrastructure, and educational reform aimed at ensuring that workers have the skills, resources, and opportunities to secure decent jobs.", "zh": "但因为每年约有 800,000人要加入劳动力队伍，坦桑尼亚还需要更多周转资金、更好的基础设施和旨在确保工人拥有体面就业所需技术、资源和机会的教育改革。", "index": 4201}
{"en": "The same is true of Ethiopia.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚的情况也是一样。", "index": 4202}
{"en": "In the last couple of decades, the country has made great strides in export-led growth, supported by a growing industrial sector and large investments from China.", "zh": "过去几十年，在工业持续增长和来自中国的巨额投资的支持下，该国的出口拉动型增长已经取得了长足的进步。", "index": 4203}
{"en": "Now, it is poised to take over as the economic powerhouse of East Africa.", "zh": "现在，埃塞俄比亚已经注定成为东非的经济强国。", "index": 4204}
{"en": "Yet the urban youth unemployment rate stands at 23.3%. Left unchecked, this situation could easily end up fueling ethnic conflict and political turmoil.", "zh": "但城市青年失业率维持在23.3 % ： 如果不加以控制，这种情况很可能导致种族冲突和政治动荡。", "index": 4205}
{"en": "Another, related challenge concerns resource mobilization: countries need funds to invest in infrastructure, human capital, and the creation of trade and digital links within and beyond Africa.", "zh": "另一个相关挑战涉及资源调配：各国需要资金投资于非洲内外的基础设施、人力资源以及贸易和数字联系的创造。", "index": 4206}
{"en": "The AfDB report estimates that, for infrastructure investment alone, the continent needs some $170 billion per year, which is $100 billion more than is currently available.", "zh": "非洲开发银行报告预计仅基础设施投资一项，非洲大陆每年就需要约1，700亿美元，这比现有资金高出一千亿之多。", "index": 4207}
{"en": "As it stands, Africa receives a total of about $60 billion in foreign direct investment each year.", "zh": "目前，非洲每年能获得总共约600亿美元的外国直接投资援助。", "index": 4208}
{"en": "To close the gap, African governments must attract more money.", "zh": "非洲政府必须吸引更多资金来弥补这一差距。", "index": 4209}
{"en": "That will require establishing effective regulatory structures that facilitate long-term borrowing and repayment, while ensuring that lenders do not exploit borrowers, as has occurred everywhere from rural India to the United States mortgage market.", "zh": "而这需要建立促进长期借贷和还贷的有效的监管制度，并确保债主不像在印度农村和美国抵押贷市场那样剥削借贷者。", "index": 4210}
{"en": "The challenges are daunting, to say the least.", "zh": "至少可以说，挑战是艰巨的。", "index": 4211}
{"en": "But there are lessons that African countries can learn from one another.", "zh": "但非洲国家可以相互吸取经验。", "index": 4212}
{"en": "For example, Ghana’s smooth transfer of power after the December 2016 election set a positive democratic example.", "zh": "例如，加纳在2016年12月选举后权力顺利移交树立了民主制度的积极榜样。", "index": 4213}
{"en": "Nigeria’s Lagos State and Tanzania have done a good job of mobilizing internal resources for development.", "zh": "尼日利亚的拉各斯州和坦桑尼亚在调动内部资源谋求发展方面做的非常不错。", "index": 4214}
{"en": "Add to that the emergence of an indigenous intelligentsia in the region, exemplified by organizations like the AfDB, and it seems that Africa’s moment may have arrived at last.", "zh": "加之像非洲开发银行等机构所代表的地区本土知识阶层的崛起，目前的情况似乎是非洲的发展机会可能最终到来了。", "index": 4215}
{"en": "Africa’s Schooling Without Learning", "zh": "非洲的校内失教问题", "index": 4216}
{"en": "ACCRA – As the school year began this September, there was welcome news for Ghana’s nearly half-million students entering high school: President Nana Akufo-Addo had fulfilled his campaign promise of free secondary education for children nationwide.", "zh": "发自阿克拉 — — 随着9月新学年开始，新升读高中的近五十万加纳学生迎来了好消息：纳纳·阿库福-阿多总统履行了他关于为全国儿童提供免费中学教育运动的承诺。", "index": 4217}
{"en": "He swore not only to do away with admissions fees, but also to provide free textbooks and meals, the cost of which had often remained a barrier for the poorest students.", "zh": "他不仅宣誓要免除学费，还提供免费的教科书和膳食 — — 这两者过往总会成为阻止那些最贫困学生入学的障碍。", "index": 4218}
{"en": "Ghana had introduced free compulsory education at the primary and junior high school levels in 1995, but implementation had been painfully slow – and students’ educational dreams were often cut off before high school.", "zh": "加纳1995年开始在小学和初中阶段实行免费义务教育，但执行情况不尽人意 — — 学生的求学梦往往在升读高中之前就告终。", "index": 4219}
{"en": "Even in 2014, only 37% of the nation’s students were enrolled in secondary school, owing to high fees.", "zh": "即使是在2014年，在高昂的收费下全国只有37％的学生入读中学。", "index": 4220}
{"en": "The president’s move is thus an inspiring example that Ghana’s neighbors should follow.", "zh": "而总统的这一举动则是诸邻国应当仿效的一个鼓舞人心的榜样。", "index": 4221}
{"en": "Unfortunately, despite progressive reforms like these, students across Africa still face other steep barriers to a truly comprehensive education.", "zh": "不幸的是，尽管实施了这些渐进式改革，非洲的学生们在实现真正全面教育方面依然面临这其他严重阻碍。", "index": 4222}
{"en": "In Ghana, for example, poor and rural children are unlikely to reap the full benefits of their new access to secondary education.", "zh": "就算在加纳，贫穷和农村的孩子依然难以从新的中学教育政策中得益。", "index": 4223}
{"en": "The situation is arguably worse elsewhere on the continent.", "zh": "非洲大陆其他地区的情况可能更糟。", "index": 4224}
{"en": "The issue is not only lack of access to schools, but also lack of good schools.", "zh": "问题不仅在于无法进入学校就读，也在于缺乏好学校。", "index": 4225}
{"en": "The results of a staggering new report from the UNESCO Institute of Statistics show that six out of ten children and adolescents around the world – 600 million in total – are not achieving basic skills in mathematics and reading.", "zh": "联合国教科文组织统计研究所新发布的一份令人震惊的报告显示，全球每10个儿童和青少年中有就有6人 — — 合共6亿人 — — 未能习得数学和阅读方面的基本技能。", "index": 4226}
{"en": "In Sub-Saharan Africa, it is estimated that 88% of children and teenagers will enter adulthood without basic literacy.", "zh": "在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，有88％的儿童和青少年在不具备基本识字能力的情况下就进入成年阶段。", "index": 4227}
{"en": "This constitutes a moral and development crisis that demands immediate action.", "zh": "这就构成了一个需要立即采取行动应对的道德和发展危机。", "index": 4228}
{"en": "Having served as head of the department of Ga-Dangme education at the University of Education in Winneba, I know from first-hand experience that one of the main problems is lack of education and absenteeism among teachers themselves.", "zh": "对此曾任加纳温尼巴教育大学加-阿当梅语（Ga-Dangme）教育系主任的笔者从自身的经验体会到，主要问题之一是教育缺乏以及教师缺勤。", "index": 4229}
{"en": "The World Bank, which similarly raised the issue of “schooling without learning” in a new report, has corroborated my view.", "zh": "世界银行在其新发布的一份报告中同样提出了“来到学校却未能接受教育”的问题，同样证实了我的看法。", "index": 4230}
{"en": "Addressing this issue requires investing more in teachers’ colleges, promoting teaching as the career of nation-builders, and encouraging the best and brightest students to aspire to a teaching career.", "zh": "解决这个问题需要投资设立更多的师范学院，推崇教学作为国家建设者的职业荣誉，同时鼓励最优秀最聪明的学生走上教学生涯。", "index": 4231}
{"en": "We cannot expect students to learn from poorly educated, poorly paid teachers.", "zh": "我们不能指望那些从受过良好教育，薪酬微薄的老师那里学到什么东西。", "index": 4232}
{"en": "We must also invest more in resources for schools and learning across the board, from scholarships for poor students to new libraries and classroom equipment.", "zh": "我们还必须投入更多的资源 — — 包括从贫困学生奖学金到新的图书馆和教室设备 — — 来全方位地提升学校和学习状况。", "index": 4233}
{"en": "With so many African governments already failing to provide equal, high-quality access to education for their citizens, this is not a challenge that they can take on alone.", "zh": "由于很多非洲国家政府都无力为公民提供平等而高质量的受教育渠道，所以这不是一个它们能去独立承担的挑战。", "index": 4234}
{"en": "As the continent’s population booms – half of the world’s population growth between 2017 and 2050 is expected to occur here – African heads of state will have to work closely with key allies and multilateral organizations to bring in funding and share know-how.", "zh": "随着非洲大陆人口的增长 — — 预计2017至2050年间全世界有一半人口增长都源自此地 — — 非洲国家元首必须与主要盟国和多边组织密切合作以争取资助和分享核心教育技巧。", "index": 4235}
{"en": "Fortunately, with the launch of the UNESCO report, several partners have already stepped up.", "zh": "幸运的是，随着联合国教科文组织报告的面世，几个合作伙伴已经站了出来。", "index": 4236}
{"en": "French President Emmanuel Macron is perhaps the most prominent of those who have promised to make investment in education in Africa a high priority.", "zh": "而法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙（Emmanuel Macron）也许是承诺将非洲教育投资作为优先选项的国家元首中最为突出的一位。", "index": 4237}
{"en": "As the UN’s main educational and cultural organization, UNESCO itself will play a key role in promoting initiatives to bring free, high-quality schooling to students across the continent.", "zh": "作为联合国的主要教育和文化组织，教科文组织本身将在推动为非洲大陆学生提供免费，高质量的学校教育方面发挥关键作用。", "index": 4238}
{"en": "And whoever takes over UNESCO, following the election of a new director-general next month, will have a make-or-break opportunity to craft the right agenda to meet this challenge.", "zh": "在下个月选举上台执掌教科文组织的新任总干事也将有机会制定正确的议程来应对这一挑战。", "index": 4239}
{"en": "Currently, the organization is mired in a financial crisis and internecine disputes, and it will need a leader who has the vision to solve both internal and external problems.", "zh": "当前该组织陷入了财政困局和内部纠纷之中，它需要一位具有眼光去解决内部和外部问题的领导者。", "index": 4240}
{"en": "Notably, France’s candidate, former Minister of Culture and Communication Audrey Azoulay, has put both UNESCO’s internal crisis and education at the top of her agenda.", "zh": "值得注意的是，法国的候选人，前文化交流部长奥黛丽·安祖拉（Audrey Azoulay）将教科文组织的内部危机和教育置于其议程的首位。", "index": 4241}
{"en": "She has singled out the financial crisis as the biggest threat facing UNESCO and has stressed the need for greater dialogue with members in arrears, like the United States.", "zh": "她将财政困局列为教科文组织面临的最大威胁，并强调需要与美国等拖欠会费的成员国进行更多的对话。", "index": 4242}
{"en": "In her previous governmental roles, Azoulay helped launch a global plan for cultural diversity through books and introduced plans to protect cultural heritage in conflict zones.", "zh": "在其以前担任的政府角色中，安祖拉协助发起了一项通过书籍宣传全球文化多样性计划并提出了保护冲突地区文化遗产的计划。", "index": 4243}
{"en": "Azoulay also has called for UNESCO to treat education as a catalyst for development and gender equality, and as the best way to help combat the “radicalization of the mind.”", "zh": "她还呼吁教科文组织将教育作为促进发展和性别平等的催化剂，也是协助打击“思想激进化”的最佳途径。", "index": 4244}
{"en": "If elected, she has promised to put Sustainable Development Goal 4 – universal quality education – at the heart of UNESCO’s mission, with a special focus on Africa.", "zh": "她承诺如果当选的话会将可持续发展目标4 — — 普适性的高质量教育 — — 作为教科文组织的核心使命，并会特别关注非洲。", "index": 4245}
{"en": "The preamble to the Constitution of UNESCO declares, “Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defenses of peace must be constructed.”", "zh": "《联合国教科文组织宪章》序言部分指出 ： “ 由于战争发端于人们的心灵，所以应当在人们心中建立起对和平的捍卫。", "index": 4246}
{"en": "Unfortunately, in Africa, we know all too well what happens when efforts to construct the defenses of peace ultimately fail.", "zh": "”不幸的是，在非洲我们都知道在构建捍卫和平的努力最终失败后会产生什么后果。", "index": 4247}
{"en": "Islamist insurgents continue to pose a threat to Mali, where in 2013, they set fire to a library holding thousands of priceless historical manuscripts in the ancient cultural center of Timbuktu.", "zh": "伊斯兰武装分子持续对马里施加威胁，在2013年他们就在纵火烧毁了位于廷巴克图古带文化中心区的一座藏有数千部无价历史手稿的图书馆。", "index": 4248}
{"en": "The incident was not only a devastating blow to world heritage; it was also a reminder of Africa’s history as a center for cultural exchange, literacy, and learning, and a call to action.", "zh": "这一事件不仅是对世界文化遗产的一个沉重打击啊；也提醒了人们非洲曾是一个文化交流，文学和教育的中心，且亟待行动去拯救。", "index": 4249}
{"en": "The stakes for Africa are high.", "zh": "非洲承受的风险极高。", "index": 4250}
{"en": "Our children are threatened not only by lack of access to schools, but also by lack of opportunities to learn, and by the loss of irreplaceable fragments of their rich history.", "zh": "我们的孩子不仅受到无力入学的威胁，还缺乏学习的机会, 更失去了自身丰富历史中不可替代的部分。", "index": 4251}
{"en": "We must hope that more governments follow Ghana’s example, that more allies like France increase their support, and that the new director general will place a high priority on UNESCO’s missions in Africa, which are more critical than ever.", "zh": "我们真心希望更多的国家政府能仿效加纳的榜样, 更多像法国这样的盟国能增加它们的支持，而新的总干事能教科文组织在非洲的使命列为优先事务，所有这一切都将比以往任何时候更为重要。", "index": 4252}
{"en": "Africa’s Year of Opportunity", "zh": "非洲的机遇之年", "index": 4253}
{"en": "GENEVA – We are still near the start of 2018, and already it feels like tension and disorder will be the year’s defining characteristics.", "zh": "日内瓦 — — 我们刚刚进入2018年年初，就已经感受到紧张和混乱将成为这一年的决定性特点。", "index": 4254}
{"en": "From anti-immigration policies in the United States to flaring geopolitical hotspots in the Middle East and East Asia, disruption, upheaval, and uncertainty seem to be the order of the day.", "zh": "从美国的反移民政策到中东和东亚引人瞩目的地缘政治热点，破坏、动荡和不确定性似乎在当下司空见惯。", "index": 4255}
{"en": "But at least one metric offers reason for cautious optimism: economic growth.", "zh": "但至少一个指标让我们有理由保持谨慎乐观：那就是经济发展。", "index": 4256}
{"en": "The International Monetary Fund estimates that global growth will reach 3.7% this year, up from 3.6% in 2017.", "zh": "国际货币基金组织估计今年的全球经济增长将达到3.7 % ， 高于2017年的3.6 % 。", "index": 4257}
{"en": "As Christine Lagarde, the Fund’s managing director, put it in a speech in December, “The sun is shining through the clouds and helping most economies generate the strongest growth since the financial crisis.”", "zh": "就像国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在12月的一次演讲中所说的那样 ， “ 阳光正在穿透乌云，并协助绝大多数经济体取得自金融危机以来最强劲的发展。 ”", "index": 4258}
{"en": "It was fitting that Lagarde made that observation in Addis Ababa, because it is in Africa where the rays of prosperity are shining brightest.", "zh": "拉加德在亚的斯亚贝巴得出这样的结论是正常的，因为繁荣之光在非洲闪耀得最为亮眼。", "index": 4259}
{"en": "In fact, I predict that 2018 will be a breakout year for many – though not all – African economies, owing to gains in eight key areas.", "zh": "事实上，因为八个关键领域的增长，我预测2018年将成为许多 — — 虽然并不是全部 — — 非洲经济体的突破之年。", "index": 4260}
{"en": "For starters, Africa is poised for a modest, if fragmented, growth recovery.", "zh": "首先，即使断断续续，非洲也即将实现缓慢的经济复苏。", "index": 4261}
{"en": "Following three years of weak economic performance, overall growth is expected to accelerate to 3.5% this year, from 2.9% in 2017.", "zh": "在经历三年经济表现疲弱的考验后，总体增长预计将从2017年的2.9%加速至今年的3.5 % 。", "index": 4262}
{"en": "This year’s projected gains will come amid improved global conditions, increased oil output, and the easing of drought conditions in the east and south.", "zh": "今年的预期增长主要来自于全球环境改善、石油产量增加以及东南部非洲地区旱灾的缓解。", "index": 4263}
{"en": "To be sure, growth will be uneven.", "zh": "可以肯定，增长并不平衡。", "index": 4264}
{"en": "While nearly a third of African economies will grow by around 5%, slowdowns are likely in at least a dozen others.", "zh": "虽然近1/3的非洲经济体将实现约5%的增长，但还有十多个非洲国家的经济增长可能放缓。", "index": 4265}
{"en": "Sharp increases in public debt, which has reached 50% of GDP in nearly half of Sub-Saharan countries, are particularly worrying.", "zh": "近半数撒哈拉以南非洲国家公共债务激增至GDP的50 % ， 这种状况特别令人焦虑。", "index": 4266}
{"en": "But, overall, Africa is positioned for a positive year.", "zh": "但总体而言，非洲将迎来积极的一年。", "index": 4267}
{"en": "Second, Africa’s political landscape is liberalizing.", "zh": "第二，非洲的政治格局正在实现自由化。", "index": 4268}
{"en": "Some of Africa’s longest-serving presidents – including Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Angola’s José Eduardo dos Santos, and the Gambia’s Yahya Jammeh – exited in 2017.", "zh": "某些非洲任期最长的总统于2017年退位 — — 包括津巴布韦的罗伯特·穆加贝、安哥拉的何塞·爱德华多·多斯桑托斯和冈比亚的叶海亚·贾梅。", "index": 4269}
{"en": "In South Africa, Jacob Zuma’s resignation allowed Cyril Ramaphosa to become president.", "zh": "在南非，雅各布·祖马的辞职让西里尔·拉马福萨成为总统。", "index": 4270}
{"en": "In January, Liberians witnessed their country’s first peaceful transfer of power since 1944, when former soccer star George Weah was sworn into office.", "zh": "1月，利比亚民众目睹了自1944年以来第一次权力的和平转移，前足球明星乔治·维阿宣誓就职总统。", "index": 4271}
{"en": "All of these gains will be tested, however, as voters in 18 countries go to the polls this year.", "zh": "随着今年有18个国家的选民参与投票，所有这一切进步都将经受考验。", "index": 4272}
{"en": "Adding to Africa’s story of divergence will be continued political fragility in a number of states, including the Central African Republic, Burundi, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Somalia.", "zh": "不少非洲国家继续处于政治脆弱状态将进一步扩大非洲的差异，包括中非共和国、布隆迪、尼日利亚、南苏丹和索马里。", "index": 4273}
{"en": "A third source of optimism is Africa’s agricultural sector, where the potential of smallholder farmers, the majority of whom are women, is finally being realized.", "zh": "第三个乐观来源是非洲的农业产业，那里的小农潜力终于得以实现，其中绝大部分是妇女。", "index": 4274}
{"en": "African agricultural output is forecast to reach $1 trillion by 2030.", "zh": "非洲农业产量预计到2030年将达1万亿美元。", "index": 4275}
{"en": "This maturation could not have come at a more opportune time; roughly two-thirds of Africans depend on agriculture to make ends meet.", "zh": "这样的成熟期恰恰出现在最恰当的时机；约2/3的非洲民众依靠农业来维持生计。", "index": 4276}
{"en": "Large tracts of uncultivated land, a youthful workforce, and the emergence of tech-savvy “agropreneurs” – agricultural entrepreneurs – are lifting production and transforming entire economies.", "zh": "大片未开垦的土地、年轻劳动力和技术精湛的“农业企业家 ” （ agropreneurs）的出现正在提升产量并改革整个经济体。", "index": 4277}
{"en": "Fourth, Africans are benefiting from technological disruption.", "zh": "第四，非洲民众正在从技术破坏中受益。", "index": 4278}
{"en": "With more than 995 million mobile subscribers, Africa’s increasing connectivity is being used to power innovation.", "zh": "非洲手机用户已超过9.95亿，不断发展的信息互联正在实现加速创新的目的。", "index": 4279}
{"en": "Key sectors like farming, health, education, banking, and insurance are already being transformed, greatly enhancing the region’s business landscape.", "zh": "农业、医疗、教育、银行和保险等关键部门已经开始转型，这极大地改善了该地区的商业格局。", "index": 4280}
{"en": "Fifth, African leaders are getting serious about curbing illicit financial outflows from corrupt practices that rob African countries of some $50 billion annually, much of it in the oil and gas sector.", "zh": "第五，非洲领导人正在认真遏制腐败行为所造成的非法资金流出，腐败行为多数发生在石油天然气领域，因此被掠夺的非洲国家财富每年约为500亿美元。", "index": 4281}
{"en": "While US lawmakers are pushing to repeal portions of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation – which contains a provision requiring oil, gas, and mining companies to disclose payments they make to governments – the broader trend is toward greater transparency and accountability.", "zh": "尽管美国立法者正在推动废除2010年多德-弗兰克金融改革法案的部分内容 — — 该法案当中包含要求石油天然气和矿业企业披露向政府付款的相关规定 — — 但却阻挡不了提高透明度和建立问责制的大趋势。", "index": 4282}
{"en": "For example, the Panama Papers and the Paradise Papers pulled back the curtain on the murky system of tax havens and shell companies that shelter billions of dollars from some of the world’s poorest countries, including many in Africa.", "zh": "例如，巴拿马文件和天堂文件揭开了在避税天堂和空壳公司等地下系统掩护下，数十亿美元流出世界某些最贫困国家，其中也包括许多非洲国家的黑幕。", "index": 4283}
{"en": "And with the G20 and the OECD working to stop tax avoidance, Africa may soon benefit from global efforts to end shady accounting.", "zh": "随着20国集团和经合组织竭尽全力打击逃税，非洲可能很快就会从全球打击会计黑幕的工作中受益。", "index": 4284}
{"en": "Sixth, Africa’s energy sector is set to thrive.", "zh": "第六，非洲的能源行业注定会蓬勃发展。", "index": 4285}
{"en": "While 621 million Africans still lack reliable access to electricity, innovations like renewables, mini-grids, and smart metering are bringing power to more people than ever before.", "zh": "虽然6.21亿非洲人仍然缺乏可靠的电力供应，但可再生能源、微型电网和智能电表等创新正在使越来越多的人享受到能源的便利。", "index": 4286}
{"en": "In South Africa, renewable energy has taken off; the price of wind power is now competitive with coal.", "zh": "在南非，可再生能源事业已经起飞；风电价格现在已经与煤电价格具有同等的竞争力。", "index": 4287}
{"en": "Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, and Rwanda are also attracting large investments in renewable energy.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、摩洛哥和卢旺达也吸引了大量可再生能源投资。", "index": 4288}
{"en": "A seventh area showing signs of progress is education.", "zh": "显示出进步迹象的第七个领域是教育。", "index": 4289}
{"en": "To be sure, Africa’s educational offerings remain dismal; more than 30 million children in Sub-Saharan Africa are not in school, and those who do attend are not learning as much as they could.", "zh": "可以肯定，非洲的教育产品水平仍然很低；撒哈拉以南非洲地区高达3，000万儿童失学，即使那些上学的儿童也没有学到足够多的知识。", "index": 4290}
{"en": "But many African leaders and publics have recognized these deficiencies; in some countries, such as Ghana, education has even become a deciding issue for voters.", "zh": "但许多非洲领袖和民众已经认识到上述缺陷；在以加纳为代表的某些国家，教育甚至已经成为选民投票的决定性问题。", "index": 4291}
{"en": "As the Education Commission highlights, some countries are boosting investments in education.", "zh": "正如教育委员会所强调的那样，某些国家正在加大对教育领域的投资。", "index": 4292}
{"en": "This represents an opportunity to align learning outcomes with future employment needs.", "zh": "这创造了一个使学习成果与未来就业需求相协调的机遇。", "index": 4293}
{"en": "But with over a billion young people living in Africa by 2050, greater investment in education is urgently needed.", "zh": "但因为到2050年将有超过10亿年轻人生活在非洲，因此迫切需要加大对教育领域的投资。", "index": 4294}
{"en": "Finally, greater attention is being paid to developing a pan-African identity, and African fashions, films, and foods are expanding to new markets.", "zh": "最后，人们越来越重视打造泛非身份，而非洲时装、电影和食品正在向新市场进军。", "index": 4295}
{"en": "As these cultural connections grow, Africa’s soft power will continue to rise and extend far beyond the continent.", "zh": "随着文化联系的不断发展，非洲的软实力将继续增加并强势辐射非洲大陆以外地区。", "index": 4296}
{"en": "In many corners of the world, 2018 is shaping up to be yet another disappointing year, as inequality and poverty continue to fuel anger and populism.", "zh": "在世界许多角落，2018年正逐渐成为令人失望的一年，因为不平等和贫困继续助长愤怒和民粹主义。", "index": 4297}
{"en": "Africa will not be entirely immune from such developments.", "zh": "非洲将不会在这样的事态发展面前完全免疫。", "index": 4298}
{"en": "Nonetheless, the continent’s inhabitants have at least eight good reasons – far more than most people elsewhere – to be optimistic.", "zh": "但尽管如此，非洲大陆居民至少有八个充分的理由保持乐观，其他地方的绝大多数人都没有这样的运气。", "index": 4299}
{"en": "Resetting the Africa-Europe Relationship", "zh": "重置非洲-欧洲关系", "index": 4300}
{"en": "JOHANNESBURG – In October, the European Union announced a plan to invest €40 billion ($47.6 billion) in Africa, a “Marshall Plan” for the continent that would boost economic growth, create jobs, and, ultimately, slow the migration of young Africans to Europe.", "zh": "约翰内斯堡—10月，欧盟宣布计划了一项在向非洲投资400亿欧元的计划，这是一项非洲“马歇尔计划 ” ， 将提振非洲经济增长、创造就业岗位，最终缓解非洲年轻人向欧洲的移民。", "index": 4301}
{"en": "“Words won’t convince migrants to stay at home,” European Parliament President Antonio Tajani said. “We must give them a chance to have a decent life.”", "zh": "“光靠说无法让移民留在家里 ， ” 欧洲议会主席塔雅尼（Antonio Tajani）说 ， “ 我们比给他们过上体面生活的机会。", "index": 4302}
{"en": "Tajani is right.", "zh": "塔雅尼是对的。", "index": 4303}
{"en": "Unfortunately, his approach is not.", "zh": "不幸的是，他的方针是错的。", "index": 4304}
{"en": "For almost 60 years, well-meaning foreign governments, many of them European, have poured huge sums of money into Africa, with little to show for it.", "zh": "近60年来，初衷良好的外国政府 — — 其中许多来自欧洲 — — 向非洲投入了巨额资金，但收效甚微。", "index": 4305}
{"en": "Lasting solutions to Africa’s development challenges require funding, to be sure, but they also demand a significant recalibration in relations with foreign partners.", "zh": "非洲发展挑战的持续解决方案当然需要资金，但也需要对与外国合作伙伴的关系做出重要调整。", "index": 4306}
{"en": "And Africa’s relationship with Europe may require the biggest overhaul of all.", "zh": "其中非洲与欧洲的关系最需要调整。", "index": 4307}
{"en": "The problem goes much deeper than money; one might even say it’s philosophical.", "zh": "问题比金钱深刻得多；甚至有人会说这是个哲学问题。", "index": 4308}
{"en": "Africa and Europe have a very old relationship, marked by complexity and pain.", "zh": "非洲和欧洲的关系由来已久，充满了复杂性和阵痛。", "index": 4309}
{"en": "Europe imposed its system of governance, values, and more recently, approaches to trade, long claiming that Africans need to be trained, to modernize, and to emphasize “capacity building.”", "zh": "欧洲将它的治理体系、价值观，后来又将它的贸易方针强加给非洲，一直说非洲人需要训练，需要现代化，需要强调“能力建设 ” 。", "index": 4310}
{"en": "This patronizing partnership has run its course, and it is crucial that we change the dynamic.", "zh": "这一庇护式的合作关系早已不合时宜，改变这一动态至关重要。", "index": 4311}
{"en": "Meetings like the fifth African Union-European Union summit, which wrapped up last week in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, are a good start.", "zh": "第五次非盟-欧盟峰会于上周在科特迪瓦的阿比让落下帷幕。 类似的会议是很好的起点。", "index": 4312}
{"en": "The meeting, which focused on “investing in youth,” put a spotlight on the complex links between the sides.", "zh": "在这次非盟-欧盟峰会上 ， “ 投资于年轻人”成为焦点主题，也让人们看到了双方的复杂联系。", "index": 4313}
{"en": "One conclusion was clear: the EU’s current answer to addressing migration from Africa is outdated.", "zh": "一个清晰的结论是：欧盟当前的非洲移民问题解决方案已经过时了。", "index": 4314}
{"en": "If Europe’s strategy to solve its migration challenges relies on money alone, it will fail.", "zh": "如果欧洲用来解决移民挑战的战略完全依赖金钱，那是注定要失败的。", "index": 4315}
{"en": "We are a long way from the lopsided dynamic that defined African-European relations during the colonial era.", "zh": "殖民地时代的倾斜的非欧关系早已一去不复返了。", "index": 4316}
{"en": "Today, Europe may need Africa more than Africa needs Europe, especially if one considers human capital.", "zh": "如今，欧洲需要非洲甚于非洲需要欧洲，特别是在人力资本方面。", "index": 4317}
{"en": "Over the next 15 years, some 440 million Africans will enter the job market, compared to 72 million in Europe.", "zh": "在未来十五年中，有4.4亿非洲人将进入劳动力市场，而欧洲只有7,200万人。", "index": 4318}
{"en": "Africa’s job seekers will need work, and Europe will have it.", "zh": "非洲的求职者需要工作，而欧洲有工作。", "index": 4319}
{"en": "An aging population is already putting a squeeze on Europe’s growth, and vacancies are forecast to multiply amid a shrinking labor pool.", "zh": "老龄化的人口已经开始影响欧洲的增长，而随着劳动力人数的下降，岗位空缺预计将成倍增长。", "index": 4320}
{"en": "There is even a strong possibility that, in the long run, it will be African young people who pay for the care of European pensioners.", "zh": "甚至很有可能，从长期看，欧洲退休者的看护需要非洲年轻人来买单。", "index": 4321}
{"en": "These demographic differences underscore the potential benefits of rethinking economic and political relations.", "zh": "这些人口差异意味着重新思考经济和政治关系具有很大的潜在收益。", "index": 4322}
{"en": "Without migration, the redistributive policies on which European welfare states depend will be unable to withstand the current rate of aging.", "zh": "如果没有移民，欧洲福利国家所依赖的再分配政策将无法面对当前的老龄化率。", "index": 4323}
{"en": "Not only will finding the staff to care for an aging population become more difficult; obtaining sufficient revenue to fund social security systems will also become harder as the dependency ratio rises.", "zh": "不但照顾日已老化的人口将变得更加困难；获取足够收入来为社会保障体系提供资金也将随着赡养比的上升而日益艰难。", "index": 4324}
{"en": "Migration policies that emphasize mobility are essential to support European industries, household consumption and, ultimately, the financing of social benefits.", "zh": "强调流动性的移民政策是支持欧洲工业、家庭消费以及最终的社会福利融资的关键。", "index": 4325}
{"en": "Because strategic competitors like China and India have already identified the human-capital potential of Africa’s youth, Europe must move quickly to attract and retain – rather than repel – African professionals.", "zh": "中国和印度等战略性竞争者已经认识到非洲年轻人的人力资本潜力，欧洲必须迅速行动起来，吸引和挽留 — — 而不是抵制 — — 非洲专业人士。", "index": 4326}
{"en": "Of the 375,000 students from the continent who study abroad each year, many will establish businesses and find their own place in a globalized economy upon graduation.", "zh": "每年有375,000非洲学生出国留学，其中很多人毕业后将会创业并在全球化的经济中找到一席之地。", "index": 4327}
{"en": "There is already growing competition in the US, Canada, China, the Middle East, and Africa itself to attract these highly educated and mobile students.", "zh": "美国、加拿大、中国、中东以及非洲本身都已经开始日益激烈地争夺这些受过良好教育的高流动性学生。", "index": 4328}
{"en": "Just as sixteenth-century Europe needed African gold, twenty-first-century Europe cannot do without the African diaspora.", "zh": "正如十六世纪的欧洲需要非洲的黄金，没有非洲侨民，二十一世纪的欧洲将步履维艰。", "index": 4329}
{"en": "Which other world region can offer similar market potential for European industries faced with declining demand and or subdued growth in both their domestic and traditional export markets?", "zh": "除了非洲，世界上还有哪个地区能够为饱受需求下降和/或国内和传统出口市场增长纷纷放缓之苦的欧洲国家提供类似的市场潜力？", "index": 4330}
{"en": "That is why it is more important than ever that Europe not engage in an administrative bean-counting exercise, in which other economies will always appear stronger.", "zh": "因此，对欧洲来说，欧洲切不可陷入政治算计，在这方面它争不过其他经济体。", "index": 4331}
{"en": "Instead, the EU should commit to mutually beneficial employment schemes that maximize the strengths of people and cultures on both continents, notably through skills transfer.", "zh": "相反，欧洲应该致力于互惠共赢的就业机制，从而实现两大洲人员和文化优势最大化，最主要的就是要通过技能转移实现。", "index": 4332}
{"en": "Europe’s recognition of its need for Africa is a necessary paradigm shift, leading, one hopes, to reasoned collaboration.", "zh": "欧洲承认其对非洲的需要是必不可少的范式转变，我们希望，这能够带来理性的合作。", "index": 4333}
{"en": "In an increasingly uncertain world, Africa and Europe can set the foundations for a smarter partnership by changing the basis of their cooperation.", "zh": "在一个日益不确定的世界中，非洲和欧洲能够通过改变合作基础，为更加明智的伙伴关系奠定基础。", "index": 4334}
{"en": "Failure to do so will be costly.", "zh": "如果无法实现这一点，代价将相当高昂。", "index": 4335}
{"en": "But most of that cost will be borne by Europe.", "zh": "但大部分代价都会由欧洲来承担。", "index": 4336}
{"en": "With alternative partners already courting their talent, it is not Africa that will be hurt the most by the missed opportunity.", "zh": "其他合作伙伴早已开始追逐人才，失去机会影响最大的并不是非洲。", "index": 4337}
{"en": "Gender Equity for Africa’s Scientists", "zh": "非洲科学家的性别平等", "index": 4338}
{"en": "KIGALI – A girl in Ethiopia could grow up to engineer a new method for improving agricultural yields, if only she could meet the right mentor.", "zh": "基加利 — — 一位埃塞俄比亚女孩只要能找到合适的导师，长大就可以设计出提高农作物产量的新方法。", "index": 4339}
{"en": "A young woman in Malawi has ideas for new cancer treatments, but will never apply them if she is pushed out of school.", "zh": "一位马拉维青年女性有治疗癌症的新想法，但如果被迫离校将永远无法付诸实施。", "index": 4340}
{"en": "And a girl in Rwanda has all the skills to create a mathematical model to mitigate droughts; all she needs is a research grant to help her pay for college.", "zh": "而一位卢旺达女孩掌握了创造数学模型缓解干旱的所有技能; 她需要的仅仅是一笔研究捐款来帮助她上大学。", "index": 4341}
{"en": "There is a global gender imbalance in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics – the so-called STEM disciplines.", "zh": "在科学、技术、工程和数学领域都存在着全球性别失衡现象 — — 这就是所谓的STEM法则。", "index": 4342}
{"en": "But in Africa, this imbalance is doing more than threatening individual futures.", "zh": "但在非洲，不仅是个人未来正受到这种失衡的威胁。", "index": 4343}
{"en": "It is also depriving the continent of talents and contributions needed to drive development and progress.", "zh": "它还剥夺了推动这块大陆发展和进步所需的人才和贡献。", "index": 4344}
{"en": "A 2011 African Development Bank report finds that “getting women into science and technology ultimately promises to benefit society as a whole.”", "zh": "2011年一份非洲开发银行的报告显示“让女性参与科学和技术最终有利于整个社会。 ”", "index": 4345}
{"en": "Gender equity in STEM is achievable, and many African scholars are showing the world how to do it.", "zh": "科学、技术、工程和数学领域的性别平等可以实现，许多非洲学者正在向世界展示他们如何以身作则。", "index": 4346}
{"en": "But they need help, and programs that offer scholarships and support are among the best ways to achieve parity in the sciences.", "zh": "但他们需要帮助，而提供奖学金和支持的相关计划是实现科学平等的最佳方式。", "index": 4347}
{"en": "The causes of Africa’s STEM gender imbalance are often compared to a leaky pipe: girls start out with interest and aptitude, but drop out of the disciplines at various points in their education.", "zh": "非洲在科学、技术、工程和数学领域失衡的原因往往被比作一根漏水的水管：女孩开始时充满了兴趣和天赋，但却在教育的各个阶段被迫退学。", "index": 4348}
{"en": "Early data from a Mastercard Foundation initiative aimed at reversing these trends show that a comprehensive approach to plugging the leaks can make a difference.", "zh": "来自万事达基金会旨在扭转上述趋势行动的早期数据表明全面采取措施来堵住漏洞能够使整个局面得到改观。", "index": 4349}
{"en": "Success begins with acknowledging that gender equity in STEM matters.", "zh": "承认科学、技术、工程和数学领域存在的性别平等问题是成功的开始。", "index": 4350}
{"en": "“Science needs us” is how Armanda Kouassi, an industrial engineer and former Mastercard Foundation scholar, puts it.", "zh": "“科学需要我们”是前万事达基金会学者兼工业工程师阿曼达·库瓦希的言辞。", "index": 4351}
{"en": "“With different ideas and perspectives come better solutions and thinking that can move scientific innovations forward and benefit the whole of Africa.”", "zh": "“不同的理念和视角可以带来更好方案和思维，从而推动科学创新向前发展并惠及整个非洲。 ”", "index": 4352}
{"en": "Kouassi is right.", "zh": "库瓦希说的完全正确。", "index": 4353}
{"en": "Africa cannot afford to squander its young, female talent.", "zh": "非洲承受不起浪费年轻女性人才的损失。", "index": 4354}
{"en": "Sub-Saharan Africa faces a shortfall of some 2.5 million engineers, technologists, mathematicians, and scientists.", "zh": "撒哈拉以南非洲面临高达250万名工程师、技术人员、数学家和科学家的短缺。", "index": 4355}
{"en": "This dearth of expertise threatens a number of Sustainable Development Goals, such as food security, health care, clean water and sanitation, energy, and infrastructure.", "zh": "这种专业知识的缺乏可能威胁几项可持续发展目标的实现，例如粮食安全、医疗卫生、清洁饮水、卫生设备以及能源和基础设施。", "index": 4356}
{"en": "Removing gender barriers to STEM requires African governments to make equity in the sciences a priority.", "zh": "消除科学、技术、工程和数学领域的性别障碍需要非洲政府优先关注科学平等问题。", "index": 4357}
{"en": "Nowhere is this happening more successfully than in Rwanda, where our collective experience has helped more than 1,250 girls and young women excel in STEM disciplines.", "zh": "在这方面卢旺达做得最为成功，我们的集体经验已经帮助超过1，250名女孩儿和青年女性在上述学科领域取得优异的成绩。", "index": 4358}
{"en": "The African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS), in Rwanda’s capital, Kigali, is one of these agents of change.", "zh": "位于卢旺达首都基加利的非洲数学科学研究所是这场变革的推动力量之一。", "index": 4359}
{"en": "The school believes that the next Einstein could be an African woman, an educational approach that informs its comprehensive strategy to plug leaks in the STEM development pipeline.", "zh": "该校认为下一个爱因斯坦可能是一位非洲女性，这种教育方法反映了其堵住科学、技术、工程和数学领域发展渠道漏洞的全方位战略。", "index": 4360}
{"en": "AIMS’s innovative approach includes helping governments train teachers, ensure that female students are not vastly outnumbered in their classrooms, support students who are mothers, and engage with industry leaders to help graduates succeed in their careers.", "zh": "非洲数学科学研究所的创新方法包括协助政府培训教师，确保课堂上有一定数量的女生、支持已经身为人母的女性并同时与行业领袖合作帮助毕业生取得事业上的成功。", "index": 4361}
{"en": "To attract more female students, 30% of the school’s scholarships are reserved for female applicants, and the school aspires to reach 50% in the near future.", "zh": "为吸引更多女性学生，该校将30%的奖学金预留给女性申请者，而学校希望这一比例能在不久的将来达到50 % 。", "index": 4362}
{"en": "Similarly, Carnegie Mellon University Africa (CMU-Africa), also in Kigali, is championing change by allocating 30% of its scholarships to young women.", "zh": "同样设在基加利的非洲卡内基梅隆大学（CMU-Africa）正在通过将30%的奖学金分配给年轻女性来推动变革的发生。", "index": 4363}
{"en": "These commitments will have a positive effect on the entire institution, as CMU-Africa seeks to increase dramatically enrollment of female scientists.", "zh": "上述举措将对整个教育体制产生积极的影响，因为非洲卡内基梅隆大学正在积极采取措施大幅提高女性科学人才的入学率。", "index": 4364}
{"en": "Finally, the Forum for African Women Educationalists (FAWE) in Rwanda has funded the education of 1,200 girls enrolled at the country’s top-performing secondary schools specializing in STEM subjects.", "zh": "最后，卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛（FAWE）已经资助了在该国优秀高中学习科学、技术、工程和数学等学科领域的1，200名女性学生接受教育。", "index": 4365}
{"en": "Of these students, an estimated 70% are expected to study science at the university level.", "zh": "在这些学生中，估计有70%有望考上大学学习理科专业。", "index": 4366}
{"en": "Despite these positive developments, quotas alone will not achieve parity.", "zh": "尽管事态出现了这些积极的进展，但单纯依靠配额仍无法达到平等的目的。", "index": 4367}
{"en": "To make lasting gains, opportunities outside the classroom are also needed.", "zh": "需要课堂以外的机会才能获得持久的收益。", "index": 4368}
{"en": "At FAWE Rwanda, a program called Tuseme (a Swahili word meaning “let’s speak out”) offers girls leadership training through drama, song, and creative arts to teach presentation, negotiation, and decision-making skills.", "zh": "在卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛，一个名叫Tuseme的项目（这个斯瓦希里语单词的意思是“让我们公开表达 ” ） 通过戏剧、歌唱以及创意艺术来训练女孩的领导能力，并教会她们掌握演讲、谈判和决策技术。", "index": 4369}
{"en": "FAWE Rwanda also works with teachers to develop gender-responsive pedagogical methods.", "zh": "卢旺达非洲女性教育人士论坛还与教师合作开发以性别特点为基础的教学方式。", "index": 4370}
{"en": "Likewise, at CMU-Africa, scholars are invited to participate in the university’s Meeting of the Minds Symposium, an annual global gathering for undergraduates to showcase their work to a wider audience of faculty, students, government officials, and industry representatives.", "zh": "同样，非洲卡内基梅隆大学学者应邀参与学校的思想研讨会，这是一年一度的全球本科生聚会，本科生们在这次研讨会上面向教职员工、学生、政府官员和行业代表展示他们所取得的成绩。", "index": 4371}
{"en": "And, the Next Einstein Forum, a select program at AIMS that recognizes Africa’s best young scientists and technologists – of which 40% are women – provides emerging innovators with an opportunity to lead their own research while inspiring the next generation of scientific thinkers.", "zh": "另外，非洲数学科学研究所的精选项目下一个爱因斯坦论坛负责选拔非洲最高水平的青年科学家和技术工作者 — — 其中有40%是女性 — — 为正在打拼的创业者提供领导自己研究的机会，同时激励下一代科学思想家。", "index": 4372}
{"en": "Inequalities faced by girls and young women in African education cannot be erased overnight.", "zh": "非洲女孩和年轻女性在教育领域所面临的不平等不可能一夜间消除。", "index": 4373}
{"en": "As Rebecca, a Mastercard Foundation scholar from Uganda, remembers, “When I was at my school, the boys used to call us ‘half-men,’ because if you’re a lady and you go for sciences, you’re a half-man.”", "zh": "正如乌干达万事达基金会学者丽贝卡所回忆的那样 ， “ 我在校期间，男生曾经称我们为‘假小子 ’ ， 因为如果你是一名女生而且学习理工科，你就是假小子。", "index": 4374}
{"en": "But, Rebecca adds, “It was cool being a science student.”", "zh": "”但丽贝卡补充道 ， “ 学习理科是一件很酷的事。 ”", "index": 4375}
{"en": "Africa needs more women who share Rebecca’s enthusiasm for STEM.", "zh": "非洲需要更多像丽贝卡一样热爱科学、技术、工程和数学学科的女性。", "index": 4376}
{"en": "To ensure that science remains appealing to girls, schools, governments, and industries must cooperate to educate teachers and mentors, and allocate funding to close the gender gap.", "zh": "为确保科学对女性的吸引力，学校、政府及各行各业都必须齐心协力教育教师和辅导员，同时拨款弥补性别差距。", "index": 4377}
{"en": "As Miranda, another Mastercard Foundation scholar, recently observed, “As we try to find new innovations and inventions to drive the economy, I believe that math and science is at the forefront of that progress.”", "zh": "另一位万事达基金会学者米兰达最近指出 ， “ 当我们想找到新的创造和发明来推动经济发展时，我相信数学和科学处在进步的前沿位置。", "index": 4378}
{"en": "As professionals working to improve African education, we couldn’t agree more.", "zh": "”作为竭尽全力改善非洲教育的专业人士，她的观点我完全同意。", "index": 4379}
{"en": "Liberal Democracy in Africa Can Wait", "zh": "非洲自由民主可以等", "index": 4380}
{"en": "YAOUNDÉ – Africa’s policymakers understand that strong economic and political leadership is essential to growth and stability.", "zh": "雅温得—非洲决策者明白，强大的经济和政治领导是增长和稳定的关键。", "index": 4381}
{"en": "For years, African economies have fared better than expected, owing to a commitment to improving governance.", "zh": "多年来，非洲经济表现一直好于预期，这便是致力于改善治理的结果。", "index": 4382}
{"en": "The question now is how to sustain the momentum.", "zh": "现在的问题是如何保持这一势头。", "index": 4383}
{"en": "Current strategies do not provide an adequate answer.", "zh": "当前的战略没有提供充分的答案。", "index": 4384}
{"en": "Although leaders at a recent African Economic Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, committed to keeping governance reforms at the top of Africa’s agenda, they offered no blueprint.", "zh": "在最近的埃塞俄比亚亚的斯亚贝巴非洲经济会议上，领导人承诺继续将治理改革列为非洲日程的重中之重，但他们并没有给出路线图。", "index": 4385}
{"en": "From my perspective, this void presents an opportunity to consider new governance paradigms, including those that borrow from two commonly discussed models: the “Washington Consensus” and the “Beijing Model.”", "zh": "从我的角度看，这一空白是一次思考新治理范式的机会，包括那些借鉴两大热门模式 — — “华盛顿共识”和“北京模式”的范式。", "index": 4386}
{"en": "Development practitioners have long debated which model offers the best framework for reform.", "zh": "长期以来，发展实践家一直在争论那种模式是最好的改革框架。", "index": 4387}
{"en": "Put simply, “governance” refers to a dynamic framework of rules, structures, and processes that help a government manage its economic, political, and administrative affairs.", "zh": "简言之 ， “ 治理”指的是一个动态规则、结构和过程框架，以帮助政府管理经济、政治和行政事务。", "index": 4388}
{"en": "But which principles a government focuses on varies by approach.", "zh": "但对于政府应该注重哪些原则，不同的方法有不同的看法。", "index": 4389}
{"en": "The model championed by the West places a premium on human rights and democracy, while the one advocated by China is more concerned with political stability and economic growth.", "zh": "西方所领衔的模式优先关注人权和民主，而中国所主推的模式更关注政治稳定和经济增长。", "index": 4390}
{"en": "Since the election of President Donald Trump, the United States, which remains one of Africa’s top donors, has focused more on the principles China favors – like political stability, trade, and counterterrorism – than on human rights.", "zh": "自特朗普当选总统以来，仍然是非洲首要捐助国的美国，开始更加注重中国所中意的原则 — — 如政治稳定、贸易和反恐 — — 而非人权。", "index": 4391}
{"en": "The rationale is that the Beijing Model is better for Africa in the short and medium term.", "zh": "原因在于北京模式在短期和中期对非洲更有利。", "index": 4392}
{"en": "And, while it might not be popular to admit, Trump has a point.", "zh": "尽管承认这一点未必讨好，但特朗普不无道理。", "index": 4393}
{"en": "Simply put, food, shelter, health, and good sanitation are more relevant for most Africans than the right to vote.", "zh": "简言之，粮食、住所、健康和良好的卫生设施对于大部分非洲人来说要比投票权更加重要。", "index": 4394}
{"en": "Moreover, only a moderately wealthy population, with a healthy middle class, can adequately demand the rights that democracy provides.", "zh": "此外，只有当人口比较富裕，并形成了一个健康的中产阶级时，才能充分地要求民主所提供的权利。", "index": 4395}
{"en": "Paradoxically, the fastest way to build a strong middle class in Africa would be to move toward the hierarchy of principles that China’s model promotes.", "zh": "讽刺的是，在非洲构建强大中产阶级的最佳方式便是在各个层面采取中国模式所推行的原则。", "index": 4396}
{"en": "For Africa to reorient its governance approach, and embrace a post-Washington Consensus, its leaders must commit to improving institutional effectiveness and economic management.", "zh": "对非洲来说，调整治理方针、接受后华盛顿共识需要其领导人致力于改善机构效率和经济管理。", "index": 4397}
{"en": "The first set of reforms would involve establishing clear lines of sovereignty with international partners.", "zh": "第一组改革应该包括与国际合作伙伴划定明确的主权边界。", "index": 4398}
{"en": "Africa’s relationship with Western donors, for example, has historically placed individual rights over national rights.", "zh": "比如，非洲与西方捐助国的关系，在历史上将个体权利置于国家权利之上。", "index": 4399}
{"en": "But in my view, individual rights should not supersede sovereign ones.", "zh": "但在我看来，个体权利不应该超越主权权利。", "index": 4400}
{"en": "Punishing entire countries for laws that affect a minority is counterproductive.", "zh": "因为影响少数人的法律而惩罚整个国家效果会适得其反。", "index": 4401}
{"en": "An example of such collective punishment occurred in Uganda in 2014, when the World Bank froze some $90 million in loans following the government’s enactment of legislation criminalizing homosexuality.", "zh": "这种集体惩罚的一个例子发生在2014年的乌干达，因为乌干达政府实施了同性恋入罪的立法，世界银行冻结了约9,000万美元贷款。", "index": 4402}
{"en": "As a Ugandan government spokesman said at the time, the bank “should not blackmail its members” to adopt Western values.", "zh": "当时，乌干达政府发言人表示，世界银行“不应该绑架其成员”接受西方价值观。", "index": 4403}
{"en": "Yet, when governance models are judged solely through the lens of the Washington Consensus, there is very little alternative.", "zh": "但是，当治理模式完全以华盛顿共识的标准来评判时，就几乎别无选择。", "index": 4404}
{"en": "Along the same lines, the second set of reforms pertains to prioritizing economic rights over political rights.", "zh": "同时，第二组改革优先考虑经济权利而非政治权利。", "index": 4405}
{"en": "For example, politicians who manage an economy well should not be subject to term limits.", "zh": "比如，管理经济的政客不应该有任期限制。", "index": 4406}
{"en": "Neither Singapore nor China is a democracy; but leaders in both countries have used their political power to improve living standards.", "zh": "不管是新加坡还是中国，都不是民主国家；但两国领导人运用他们的政治权力去改善生活水平。", "index": 4407}
{"en": "Forcing leaders to step down in the middle of economic reforms seems counterproductive.", "zh": "在经济改革进行中期迫使领导人下台可能起到适得其反的效果。", "index": 4408}
{"en": "These are not far-fetched ideas.", "zh": "这些都不是牵强附会。", "index": 4409}
{"en": "Today, leaders in Rwanda, which is widely considered an African success story, have improved stability by moving away from the Washington Consensus approach to governance.", "zh": "如今，在被广泛认为是非洲成功故事之一的卢旺达，领导人通过放弃华盛顿共识的治理方针，成功改善了稳定。", "index": 4410}
{"en": "Politically, Rwanda is strong, disciplined, and organized, but it is not liberal.", "zh": "从政治上看，卢旺达强大、有组织、有纪律，但不自由。", "index": 4411}
{"en": "The landslide reelection of President Paul Kagame last year had more to do with power than democracy.", "zh": "总统卡加梅在去年的大选中以压倒性优势连任与其说源自民主，不如说源自权力。", "index": 4412}
{"en": "Although Kagame remains popular, his government was criticized for stifling free speech and human rights in the run-up to the vote.", "zh": "尽管卡加梅保持着很高的支持率，但他的政府被批在选举期间扼杀言论自由、压迫人权。", "index": 4413}
{"en": "The conclusion I draw is not that human rights don’t matter, but that political discipline and imperfect forms of democracy are acceptable if the tradeoff is sustained progress in economic and institutional governance.", "zh": "我从中得出的结论不是人权不重要，而是政治纪律和不完美的民主形式，在面临经济和机构治理持续改善的权衡面前也是可接受的。", "index": 4414}
{"en": "We should be intellectually honest and call a spade a spade.", "zh": "我们应该在理智上保持坦诚，实话实说。", "index": 4415}
{"en": "Rwandans should not be ashamed to value economic and administrative strength more than fair elections.", "zh": "卢旺达人民不必因为重视经济和行政强势甚于公平选举而感到羞愧。", "index": 4416}
{"en": "The question for other African states seeking to reform their governance models, then, is how much of Rwanda’s approach to emulate.", "zh": "因此，其他非洲国家寻求改革治理模式时所面临的问题是在多大程度上效仿卢旺达的方针。", "index": 4417}
{"en": "Neither the Washington Consensus nor the Beijing Model has all the answers.", "zh": "华盛顿共识也好，北京模式也好，都不是答案的全部。", "index": 4418}
{"en": "But, as Rwanda has demonstrated, if discipline and strong leadership are improving lives and delivering public goods, perhaps liberal democracy should be a long-term priority.", "zh": "但是，卢旺达证明，如果纪律和坚强的领导能够改善生活、提供公共品，那么也许自由民主应该作为一项长期的重点。", "index": 4419}
{"en": "Health Coverage Must Not Ignore Africa’s Elderly", "zh": "医疗保险不能忽视非洲的老年人", "index": 4420}
{"en": "DAR ES SALAAM – My grandmother is 76, and my grandfather is 83.", "zh": "达雷斯萨拉姆 — — 我的祖母76岁，祖父83岁。", "index": 4421}
{"en": "They have lived fruitful lives together, cultivating crops and grazing cattle in a remote village in the hills of southwest Uganda.", "zh": "他们在乌干达西南部山区的一个偏远村庄里共同生活，边养牛边种植农作物。", "index": 4422}
{"en": "But whenever I think of them, I am more in awe of their good health than their hard work.", "zh": "但每当我想起他们，我更佩服他们的健康体魄而非辛勤劳作。", "index": 4423}
{"en": "Because of the remoteness of their community, anytime my grandparents need medical care, they must travel 25 miles to the nearest hospital on motorcycles known as boda-bodas, paying about 50,000 Ugandan shillings (about $13) for the round-trip journey.", "zh": "因为生活的地方偏远，每次我的祖父母需要看医生，都必须骑着被当地人称为 boda-bodas的摩托车前往25英里外最近的医院，来回路费需要50,000乌干达先令（约合13美元 ） 。", "index": 4424}
{"en": "Then, because they were recently dropped from their health-insurance plan due to age, they must cough up more money to foot the bill for treatment.", "zh": "而后，由于他们最近因超龄而被迫退出医疗保险计划，他们必须自己掏更多钱来支付医疗账单。", "index": 4425}
{"en": "In other words, for my grandparents – and for many older Africans – a visit to the doctor is onerous, costly, and exceedingly rare.", "zh": "换言之，对于我的祖父母 — — 和许多非洲老年人来讲 — — 看医生不仅麻烦、昂贵而且非常罕见。", "index": 4426}
{"en": "Access to health care is an obsession for experts in international development.", "zh": "医疗服务普及度几乎已经成为困扰国际发展专家的强迫症。", "index": 4427}
{"en": "In May, at the World Health Organization’s annual World Health Assembly, officials from dozens of countries discussed how to achieve universal health coverage through the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.", "zh": "今年5月，在世卫组织一年一度的世卫大会上，来自数十个国家的官员探讨了如何借助联合国可持续发展目标实现全民医疗覆盖。", "index": 4428}
{"en": "And yet, most of the attention centered on mothers, newborns, and children; elderly populations in developing countries were largely ignored.", "zh": "但母婴及儿童吸引了绝大部分注意力；讨论基本对发展中国家的老年人口视而不见。", "index": 4429}
{"en": "Failure to address this omission would leave an increasing share of the population without access to affordable health care.", "zh": "如果解决不了这一遗漏问题，越来越多的非洲人口将无法获得平价的医疗保健。", "index": 4430}
{"en": "According to the World Bank, life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa has risen steadily in recent decades, from just 40 years in 1960 to 60 years today.", "zh": "世界银行数据显示，撒哈拉以南非洲地区的预期寿命近几十年来一直稳步上升，从1960年的仅40岁上升到今天的60岁。", "index": 4431}
{"en": "If this trend continues, the number of Africans living past their 60th birthday will more than double by 2050.", "zh": "如果这一趋势得以沿续，那么到2050年活过60岁生日的非洲人会比现在翻一番。", "index": 4432}
{"en": "This is of course good news; longevity is a key indicator of human development.", "zh": "这当然是个好消息；长寿是人类发展的一项关键指标。", "index": 4433}
{"en": "But Africa’s elder boom will be a disaster if living longer means living sicker because of inadequate health care.", "zh": "但如果寿命延长意味着因医疗条件不足而罹患疾病 ，那么非洲的老年人口膨胀将带来灾难性的后果。", "index": 4434}
{"en": "In Uganda, many rural health-care centers lack the personnel, supplies, and infrastructure to meet the needs of older patients.", "zh": "在乌干达，许多农村医疗中心满足老年患者需求的人员、物资和基础设施都十分匮乏。", "index": 4435}
{"en": "Small clinics typically refer their oldest patients to the closest big hospital, which is often many miles away.", "zh": "小珍所通常会将最年长的患者转到最近的大医院，而大医院通常距离都在几英里开外。", "index": 4436}
{"en": "Traveling by motorcycle over rough terrain can worsen health conditions; but with no other options, the frail must choose between a bumpy ride on the back of a bike and no treatment at all.", "zh": "在崎岖山路上骑摩托车可能导致健康条件恶化；但因为没有其他选择，体弱者必须在骑车经受颠簸和放弃治疗之间作出选择。", "index": 4437}
{"en": "It’s hard to blame those who opt for the latter.", "zh": "难怪有人选择后者。", "index": 4438}
{"en": "According to a 2010 survey by doctors at the Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, boda-bodas are Uganda’s leading cause of road-related injuries.", "zh": "2010年坎帕拉姆拉哥国家转诊医院医生发起的一项调查显示，boda-bodas是乌干达道路伤害的主要原因。", "index": 4439}
{"en": "During the survey period, motorcycle passengers accounted for 41% of the hospital’s 1,500 trauma cases, and riders’ injuries consumed 62.5% of the hospital’s surgery budget.", "zh": "在调查期间，摩托车乘客占该院1，500起创伤病例的41 % ， 而骑车者的伤害占该院手术预算的62.5 % 。", "index": 4440}
{"en": "Given the dangers of travel, it is no wonder that my grandparents are reluctant to seek medical care.", "zh": "鉴于路上可能面临的危险，难怪我的祖父母不愿寻求医疗服务。", "index": 4441}
{"en": "Of course, the biggest obstacle to health care in Uganda – like everywhere else – is money.", "zh": "当然，像其他地方一样，钱才是乌干达医疗保健最大的障碍因素。", "index": 4442}
{"en": "In 2015, researchers at Makerere University found that household income is the main determinant of elderly people’s access to and use of health-care services.", "zh": "2015年，马克雷雷大学的研究人员发现家庭收入是老年人获取并使用医疗保健服务的主要决定因素。", "index": 4443}
{"en": "The story is similar in the United States, where average annual health-care costs have been increasing for decades.", "zh": "美国的情况也十分类似，平均每年的医疗保健成本近几十年来一直处于增加当中。", "index": 4444}
{"en": "But while older patients in the US can turn to Medicare (which accounted for 15% of federal spending in 2017), the elderly in most African countries have less government support.", "zh": "但虽然美国的老年患者可以借助联邦医疗保险（2017年占联邦开支的15 % ） ，但多数非洲国家的老年人却缺乏政府支持。", "index": 4445}
{"en": "Still, a dearth of dedicated resources does not mean that Africa’s leaders must ignore their older constituents.", "zh": "尽管如此，专属资源的欠缺并不意味着非洲领导人一定要忽视老年选民需求。", "index": 4446}
{"en": "By combining elder-care services with existing programs, health benefits can be extended to underserved populations.", "zh": "通过将老年人护理服务与现有计划相结合，可以将健康福利拓展到服务欠缺的人口。", "index": 4447}
{"en": "For example, single-sector initiatives, like HIV/AIDS treatment schemes, could include elderly-friendly health-care components.", "zh": "例如，像艾滋病毒/艾滋病治疗计划等单一领域计划可以纳入方便老年人的医疗保健元素。", "index": 4448}
{"en": "Health-care workers who serve expectant and new mothers could also be trained to provide in-home care for the elderly in multigenerational households.", "zh": "服务孕妇和新妈妈的卫生保健工作者也可以接受培训后在几代人共同生活的家庭为老年人提供上门医疗服务。", "index": 4449}
{"en": "These types of initiatives would not require vast sums of money; rather, the most important factor in launching them is political support and effective program integration.", "zh": "上述类型的计划不需要巨额资金；相反，启动该计划的最重要因素是政治支持和有效的项目整合。", "index": 4450}
{"en": "Developing countries have made considerable gains when it comes to improving health care for the young.", "zh": "发展中国家在改善年轻人的医疗服务方面已经取得了重大的进步。", "index": 4451}
{"en": "Now, we must do the same for the elderly.", "zh": "现在，我们必须为老年人提供同样的服务。", "index": 4452}
{"en": "In Uganda, the government’s national health-care strategy could easily be strengthened by adding seniors to the list of so-called vulnerable groups.", "zh": "在乌干达，将老年人列入所谓的弱势群体名单可以轻易实现对政府 国家医疗保健战略的强化。", "index": 4453}
{"en": "Integrating elder-care options into existing frameworks – such as the health extension program in Ethiopia, the community-based health program in Tanzania, and village health teams in my country – are other ways to extend coverage.", "zh": "扩大医疗覆盖范围的其他方式是将老年人保健方案纳入埃塞俄比亚卫生推广计划、坦桑尼亚社区卫生计划以及我所在国家的乡村卫生小组等现有医疗框架。", "index": 4454}
{"en": "Finally, community health-insurance schemes must be overhauled to prevent the exclusion of poor older patients.", "zh": "最后，为防止将贫困老年患者排除在外，必须对社区医疗保险计划进行彻底的改革。", "index": 4455}
{"en": "To maintain coverage and protect the elderly from financial ruin, reforms are needed to create plans that are financially sound and drawn from a larger pool of subscribers.", "zh": "为确保为老年人提供医疗服务并保护老年人避免财务破产，我们需要改革制定在财务上可行并扩大用户基数的保险计划。", "index": 4456}
{"en": "We all yearn to live long, healthy, productive lives – just as my grandparents have.", "zh": "人人都渴望像我的祖父母那样过上长寿、健康和有效率的生活。", "index": 4457}
{"en": "But without lifelong access to quality health care, longevity will be more luck than science.", "zh": "但如果没有终身高质量的医疗保健，就只能凭借运气而非科学来实现长寿。", "index": 4458}
{"en": "The integrity of any society can be judged by how well it treats its youngest and oldest members.", "zh": "如何对待最年轻和最年长的社会成员可以判定社会的健全程度。", "index": 4459}
{"en": "That calculus applies to governments, too.", "zh": "这样的推论同样适用于政府。", "index": 4460}
{"en": "Africa’s Must-Do Decade", "zh": "非洲这十年必须要做的事", "index": 4461}
{"en": "VIENNA – Since 2000, Africa has recorded impressive rates of economic growth, owing largely to development assistance and a prolonged commodity boom.", "zh": "维也纳 — — 自2000年来，主要因为发展援助和商品的长期繁荣，非洲的经济增长速度令人印象深刻。", "index": 4462}
{"en": "While the continent shows great diversity in the socioeconomic trajectories, growth rates have generally masked an underlying lack of structural transformation.", "zh": "尽管非洲大陆在社会经济的发展路径方面表现出极大的多样性，但增长率往往掩盖了背后结构转型的缺失。", "index": 4463}
{"en": "Many African countries have yet to undergo the kind of transformation that is necessary for socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable development over the long term: namely, industrialization.", "zh": "许多非洲国家仍未经历实现长期社会包容及环境可持续发展所需要的那种转型：那就是工业化。", "index": 4464}
{"en": "Wherever industrialization has occurred, it has reliably improved economic diversification and helped to nurture, strengthen, and uphold the conditions for competitive growth and development.", "zh": "无论工业化发生在哪里，它都勿庸置疑地促进了经济多样化，有助于培育、加强和维护竞争性发展和增长所需的环境。", "index": 4465}
{"en": "In recent decades, some developing countries – mainly in Asia – have managed to industrialize.", "zh": "近几十年来，一些发展中国家 — — 主要分布在亚洲 — — 成功地完成了工业化进程。", "index": 4466}
{"en": "But, despite repeated attempts, African countries have not.", "zh": "但尽管也曾反复尝试，非洲国家仍未能完成工业化进程。", "index": 4467}
{"en": "In 2014, the Asia and Pacific region’s share of value added in global manufacturing was 44.6%, whereas Africa’s was just 1.6%.", "zh": "2014年，亚太地区占全球制造业增加值的比重为44.6 % ， 而非洲则仅有区区1.6 % 。", "index": 4468}
{"en": "With South Africa as its only industrialized country, Sub-Saharan Africa is the least industrialized region in the world.", "zh": "因为只有南非一个工业化国家，撒哈拉以南非洲成为全世界工业化程度最低的地区。", "index": 4469}
{"en": "For African countries to achieve sustainable development, they will have to increase substantially the share of industry – especially manufacturing – in their national investment, output, and trade.", "zh": "非洲国家要想实现可持续发展，就必须在国家投资、生产和贸易等领域大幅增加工业 — — 尤其是制造业 — — 的比重。", "index": 4470}
{"en": "And, to their credit, most African countries already recognize that such a transformation is necessary to address a wide range of interconnected challenges that they are now confronting.", "zh": "值得肯定的是，绝大多数非洲国家已经认识到要想解决它们目前所面临的一系列相互关联的挑战，就必须进行这样的转型。", "index": 4471}
{"en": "One such challenge is population growth.", "zh": "其中一个挑战是人口的增长。", "index": 4472}
{"en": "More than half of the continent’s 1.2 billion people are under the age of 19, and almost one in five are between the ages of 15 and 24.", "zh": "非洲大陆12亿人有超过一半年龄在19岁以下，而且几乎1/5的人年龄在15到24岁之间。", "index": 4473}
{"en": "Each year, 12 million new workers join the labor force, and they will need the tools and skills to ensure their future livelihoods.", "zh": "每年都有1，200万新增劳动力加入到劳动力队伍，他们需要相应的工具和技能来确保未来的生活水平。", "index": 4474}
{"en": "Industrialization is the key to helping Africa’s fast-growing population realize a demographic dividend.", "zh": "工业化是帮助非洲快速增长的人口实现人口红利的关键要素。", "index": 4475}
{"en": "A related challenge is migration.", "zh": "与之相关的挑战是移民。", "index": 4476}
{"en": "Many of Africa’s most ambitious and entrepreneurially minded young people are joining others in migrating north.", "zh": "许多非洲国家最雄心勃勃并富于创业精神的年轻人正在和其他人一道向北方移民。", "index": 4477}
{"en": "But no country, especially in Africa, can afford to lose so much talent and potential.", "zh": "但没有哪个国家，尤其是非洲国家，能够承受得了一下子失去这么多的人才和潜能。", "index": 4478}
{"en": "Industrialization alone cannot resolve the migration crisis, but it can address one root cause, by creating jobs in the countries of origin.", "zh": "仅靠工业化无法解决移民危机，但却可以通过在原籍国创造就业机会的方式来化解其中一个根本原因。", "index": 4479}
{"en": "A third challenge is climate change, which weighs heavily on countries where agriculture is still the primary sector for employment.", "zh": "第三个挑战是气候变化，气候变化严重影响到仍然以农业作为主要就业领域的国家。", "index": 4480}
{"en": "To confront the threat, Africa will need to develop and adopt green technologies, while channeling more investment into resource efficiency and clean energy.", "zh": "要想面对这一挑战，非洲需要发展和应用绿色技术，同时为资源效率和清洁能源领域吸引更多投资。", "index": 4481}
{"en": "With the right investments, African countries can reduce the cost of delivering power to rural areas, and contribute to global efforts to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change.", "zh": "如果有充足的投资，非洲国家可以降低向农村输电的成本，并贡献于减排和缓解气候变化影响的全球性事业。", "index": 4482}
{"en": "In short, Africa must industrialize, and it must do so in a socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable manner.", "zh": "总之，非洲必须实现工业化，而且必须以能确保社会包容和环境可持续的方式。", "index": 4483}
{"en": "Given that most previous efforts at sustainable development in Africa have failed, there is a clear need for a new approach: a broad-based, country-owned process that taps financial and non-financial resources, promotes regional integration, and fosters cooperation among Africa’s development partners.", "zh": "鉴于以往在非洲进行的可持续发展努力多数以失败告终，所以显然需要采取一种新的方式：可持续发展必须在拥有广泛基础的前提下照顾到国情，充分利用金融及非金融资源，推动地区一体化并培育非洲发展伙伴之间的合作关系。", "index": 4484}
{"en": "As it happens, the United Nations General Assembly has declared 2016-2025 to be the Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa.", "zh": "事实上，联合国大会已经宣布2016-2025年为非洲工业发展第三个十年。", "index": 4485}
{"en": "During IDDA III, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization, which I lead, will spearhead the new approach to sustainable development sketched above.", "zh": "在工业发展第三个十年期间，由我领导的联合国工业发展组织将率先落实上面提到的可持续发展新方式。", "index": 4486}
{"en": "UNIDO has put its full support behind partnerships for mobilizing resources, and is offering a tested model for African countries to follow: the Programme for Country Partnership (PCP).", "zh": "联合国工业发展组织全力支持合作伙伴调动资源，同时为非洲国家提供了国家伙伴关系项目（PCP）这样一个经过验证的模式。", "index": 4487}
{"en": "UNIDO’s PCP provides countries with technical assistance, policy advice, and investments to help them design and implement industrialization strategies.", "zh": "联合国工业发展组织的国家伙伴关系项目为各国提供协助其设计并推行工业化战略的技术援助、政策咨询和投资。", "index": 4488}
{"en": "The program was launched in 2014, and is already being successfully implemented in two African countries – Ethiopia and Senegal – and in Peru.", "zh": "该项目于2014年启动，并已经在埃塞俄比亚和塞内加尔等两个非洲国家得到成功实施。", "index": 4489}
{"en": "The PCP provides a multi-stakeholder partnership model that can be adapted to each country’s national development agenda.", "zh": "国家伙伴关系项目提供了一种以多利益相关方为基础的伙伴关系模式，可以根据各国的国家发展议程进行调整后加以实施。", "index": 4490}
{"en": "It is designed to work in synergy with governments and their partners’ ongoing development efforts, while funneling additional funds and investments toward sectors that have high growth potential and are important to a particular government’s industrial-development agenda.", "zh": "它旨在与政府部门及其合作伙伴持续不断的发展努力协调合作，同时为具有高增长潜力和对政府工业发展议程至关重要的部门提供额外的资金和投资。", "index": 4491}
{"en": "Priority sectors are typically chosen for their job-creation, investment, and export potential, and for their access to necessary raw materials.", "zh": "人们通常会选择能创造就业岗位、吸引投资和具有出口潜力的部门作为优先投资对象，还有一个条件就是原材料必须容易获取。", "index": 4492}
{"en": "The PCP approach is designed to maximize the impact of all partner programs and projects that are relevant to industrial development.", "zh": "国家伙伴关系项目旨在令与工业发展相关的所有伙伴项目和计划的影响力得到最大限度的发挥。", "index": 4493}
{"en": "To that end, strategic partnerships with financial institutions and the business sector are particularly important.", "zh": "为了实现这一目的，与金融机构和企业部门建立战略伙伴关系尤为重要。", "index": 4494}
{"en": "With these in place, African countries can marshal additional resources for infrastructure, innovation, expertise, and new technologies.", "zh": "有了这些，非洲国家就可以筹集更多资源用于基建、创新、专业知识和新技术项目。", "index": 4495}
{"en": "UNIDO’s goal is to make the PCP model the mainstream approach for all African countries.", "zh": "联合国工业发展组织的目标是使国家伙伴关系模式成为所有非洲国家采用的主流模式。", "index": 4496}
{"en": "We stand ready to support Africa on its path to inclusive and sustainable industrial development – during IDDA III and beyond.", "zh": "我们随时准备支持非洲走向包容性和可持续的工业发展 — — 无论是在非洲工业发展第三个十年期间还是以后。", "index": 4497}
{"en": "Africa’s Decade of Industrialization", "zh": "非洲的工业化十年", "index": 4498}
{"en": "VIENNA – In today’s interdependent global economy, Africa remains a weak link.", "zh": "维也纳—在当今互相依存的全球经济中，非洲仍然是弱环。", "index": 4499}
{"en": "If the world is to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, thereby completing the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, it must help Africa accelerate its development by promoting rapid and responsible industrialization.", "zh": "要想实现可持续发展目标 ， ， 进而完成联合国2030年可持续发展日程，就必须通过促进迅速而负责任的工业化帮助非洲加快发展。", "index": 4500}
{"en": "Africa is by no means destined to lag behind the rest of the world economy.", "zh": "非洲绝不是注定要拖世界经济的后腿。", "index": 4501}
{"en": "On the contrary, it could easily become a global economic powerhouse – and within the next decade.", "zh": "相反，它很有希望成为世界经济的发动机 — — 并且未来十年就能实现。", "index": 4502}
{"en": "But, to fulfill its economic potential, Africa must industrialize.", "zh": "但是，要想实现其经济潜力，非洲必须工业化。", "index": 4503}
{"en": "The importance of this has been stressed repeatedly at recent international forums, including last August’s Sixth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD VI), and the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China, the following month.", "zh": "这一点的重要性在最近的国际论坛中反复强调，包括去年8月的第六届东京非洲发展国际会议（TICAD VI）和9月的G20杭州峰会。", "index": 4504}
{"en": "For the first time, the G20 placed industrialization in Africa – and all of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – on its agenda.", "zh": "G20第一次将非洲 — — 以及全部最不发达国家 — — 的工业化列上日程。", "index": 4505}
{"en": "The African Union’s Agenda 2063 also supports this drive.", "zh": "非盟的2063年日程也支持非洲工业化。", "index": 4506}
{"en": "The recent UN General Assembly resolution declaring 2016-2025 the Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa is yet another push in this direction.", "zh": "最新的联合国大会决议将2016—2025年列为非洲工业发展的第三个十年，这是这一方向上的最新进展。", "index": 4507}
{"en": "The organization that I represent, the UN Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), has been tasked with operationalizing and leading the implementation of the concomitant program, including mobilizing the needed resources.", "zh": "我所代表的组织 — — 联合国工业发展组织（UNIDO ） ， 承担了执行和领导实施多管齐下的计划的任务，包括动员所需要的资源。", "index": 4508}
{"en": "All of these declarations and commitments are an important first step.", "zh": "所有这些宣言和承诺都属于重要的第一步。", "index": 4509}
{"en": "But they will mean little unless they are translated into concrete and effective action that advances African industrialization, creates jobs, and fosters inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development.", "zh": "但除非能转化为切实有效的行动推进非洲工业化、创造就业、促进包容而可持续的经济增长和发展，否则它们毫无意义。", "index": 4510}
{"en": "The question is how.", "zh": "问题在于如何做到。", "index": 4511}
{"en": "The short answer is money and action.", "zh": "简单的答案是金钱和行动。", "index": 4512}
{"en": "We must challenge the international community and development partners to back their words with real financial commitments.", "zh": "我们必须敦促国际社会和发展合作伙伴兑现真金白银的融资承诺。", "index": 4513}
{"en": "And we must build partnerships to operationalize programs that will enable Africa to become the world’s next main engine of economic growth.", "zh": "我们必须构建合作伙伴关系执行能让非洲成为世界下一个经济增长主要引擎的计划。", "index": 4514}
{"en": "Such programs must recognize and tackle the acute challenges the continent faces.", "zh": "这些计划必须承认和解决非洲所面临的尖锐挑战。", "index": 4515}
{"en": "The economic growth experienced in recent decades has not been structurally driven, sustainable, or fully inclusive.", "zh": "近几十年来的经济增长并非结构性驱动，不可持续，也不完全包容。", "index": 4516}
{"en": "Indeed, growth rates vary widely across the continent, and not all Africans are benefiting.", "zh": "事实上，非洲国家的增长率彼此大相径庭，也并不是所有国家都在受益。", "index": 4517}
{"en": "Though the middle class in Africa has expanded markedly in recent years, generating a consumer boom and boosting domestic investment, many people still struggle to make a living.", "zh": "尽管非洲中产阶级在近几年中迅速扩大，形成了一波消费繁荣，也提振了国内投资，但许多人仍在艰难度日。", "index": 4518}
{"en": "Unemployment rates are high, especially for young people and women – a reality that drives many Africans to head north.", "zh": "失业率高企，特别是年轻人和妇女 — — 这个现实让许多非洲人向北方迁移。", "index": 4519}
{"en": "To keep them home, Africa’s economies must move beyond producing raw materials to build dynamic and competitive manufacturing sectors with higher value added.", "zh": "要想留住这些人，非洲经济体就不能只是生产原材料，也要构建充满活力和竞争力的增加值更高的制造业。", "index": 4520}
{"en": "Here, Africa must draw on the opportunities presented by participation in global and regional value chains.", "zh": "在这方面，非洲必须抓住参与全球和地区价值链的机会。", "index": 4521}
{"en": "New and innovative industrial-development strategies, as well as carefully tailored measures to attract foreign direct investment, must be introduced.", "zh": "必须引入新的创新性工业发展战略，以及精心设计的吸引外国直接投资的措施。", "index": 4522}
{"en": "Of course, to develop such strategies and participate effectively in industrial value chains, Africans need knowledge.", "zh": "当然，制定这些战略和有效参与工业价值链需要知识。", "index": 4523}
{"en": "Investment in education and skills training is imperative to facilitate successful and lasting industrialization.", "zh": "教育和技能培训投资是成功而持续的工业化的关进。", "index": 4524}
{"en": "By understanding and drawing on proven innovations from around the world, Africa could leapfrog more developed countries technologically, building the capacity to produce more sophisticated, higher-value goods.", "zh": "通过理解并从世界各地引进有效的创新，非洲能够在技术上赶超更加发达的国家，构建生产更先进、价值更高的商品的能力。", "index": 4525}
{"en": "Knowledge of other countries’ experiences will also help Africa to avoid the pitfalls of unbridled industrialization – particularly environmental damage.", "zh": "了解其他国家的经验也有助于非洲避免自由放任的工业化的弊端 — — 特别是环境破坏。", "index": 4526}
{"en": "Africa must ensure that its industrial-development strategy includes effective environmental safeguards.", "zh": "非洲必须确保其工业发展战略中包括有效的环境保护措施。", "index": 4527}
{"en": "Africa is well placed to industrialize.", "zh": "非洲的处境十分有利于工业化。", "index": 4528}
{"en": "Beyond its massive natural-resource endowments, the continent has a favorable demographic profile (its rapidly growing population means that it will soon have the world’s largest workforce) and high urbanization rates.", "zh": "除了富饶的自然资源禀赋，非洲还拥有有利的人口结构（迅速增长的人口意味着它很快就能拥有世界上最庞大的劳动力大军）和很高的城市化率。", "index": 4529}
{"en": "It also benefits from a highly educated diaspora.", "zh": "非洲也从受过良好的教育的侨民中获益。", "index": 4530}
{"en": "But industrialization is never automatic.", "zh": "但工业化不会从天上掉下来。", "index": 4531}
{"en": "Governments must step up to address market failures, while planning, implementing, and enforcing industrial policies that address the shortcomings of previous ineffective versions.", "zh": "政府必须出手解决市场失灵，同时规划、实施和执行解决此前低效方案的短板的产业政策。", "index": 4532}
{"en": "They must then institutionalize these new policies in national and regional development strategies.", "zh": "它们还必须将这些国家和地区发展战略制度化。", "index": 4533}
{"en": "To succeed, governments will need adequate capacity, competence, and legitimacy to mobilize and interact with all stakeholders, thereby creating an attractive investment climate.", "zh": "要想成功，政府必须有足够的能量、能力和合法性动员相关利益方并与之互动，从而建立有吸引力的投资气候。", "index": 4534}
{"en": "The necessary reforms will open the way for public-private partnerships, which can provide investment for infrastructure development and maintenance.", "zh": "实施必要的改革能打开公私合作之门，而公私合作能提供基础设施开发和维护投资。", "index": 4535}
{"en": "They will also facilitate cooperation with international organizations and development finance institutions, which can provide additional funds, while helping countries to upgrade their productive capacity.", "zh": "政府还要为与国际组织和发展融资机构的合作提供便利，后两者可以提供更多的资金，并帮助非洲国家升级产能。", "index": 4536}
{"en": "A recent report, prepared for the Hangzhou G20 Summit, features a number of recommendations for Africa.", "zh": "G20杭州峰会的报告为非洲列出了许多建议。", "index": 4537}
{"en": "It suggests support for agriculture and agribusiness development and linking them with other sectors, as well as measures to boost resilience to price shocks.", "zh": "报告提出要为农业和农商企业发展提供支持，让它们与其他部门形成连接，并采取措施加强对价格冲击的恢复力。", "index": 4538}
{"en": "Furthermore, the report emphasizes the need to deepen, broaden, and update the local knowledge base, invest in energy- and material-resource efficiency, and promote green technologies and industries.", "zh": "此外，报告强调需要深化、广化和更新地方知识储备，投资于提高能源和原材料效率，以及促进绿色技术和产业。", "index": 4539}
{"en": "Other recommendations relate to trade and regional integration, leveraging domestic and external finance, and promoting what it calls the “New Industrial Revolution.”", "zh": "其他建议包括贸易和地区一体化、利用本地和外部资金、促进所谓的“新工业革命”等。", "index": 4540}
{"en": "My numerous meetings with African leaders and visits to dozens of countries across the continent have convinced me that Africa is committed to industrialization.", "zh": "我与非洲领导人进行过数不清的会晤，也访问过数十个非洲国家，这些经历使我相信，非洲有工业化的决心。", "index": 4541}
{"en": "In fact, the process is already underway in many countries, including Ethiopia, Ghana, Rwanda, and Senegal.", "zh": "事实上，工业化在许多国家已经开始了，包括埃塞俄比亚、加纳、卢旺达、塞内加尔等。", "index": 4542}
{"en": "By offering our commitment and support, we can enable these countries to realize inclusive and sustainable development for the benefit of everyone.", "zh": "通过提供我们的承诺和支持，我们能让这些国家实现包容和可持续的发展，让所有人都从中获益。", "index": 4543}
{"en": "A Roadmap for African Industrialization", "zh": "非洲工业化路线图", "index": 4544}
{"en": "ABIDJAN – Africa is at a crossroads.", "zh": "阿比让—非洲正站在十字路口。", "index": 4545}
{"en": "Six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies are now located in the region, and the continent’s GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% this year, up from 3.6% in 2017.", "zh": "今天，世界十个增长最快的经济体有六个在非洲，今年非洲GDP 增长预计将达4.1 % ， 而2017年为3.6 % 。", "index": 4546}
{"en": "Yet Africa’s economic growth has not been accompanied by a commensurate level of job creation, which has particularly negative implications for women and young people.", "zh": "但非洲经济增长并未带来相称的就业创造，这对妇女和年轻人的影响尤为消极。", "index": 4547}
{"en": "In fact, today’s jobless growth could even reverse the gains made in eradicating poverty in recent years.", "zh": "事实上，今天的无就业增长甚至可能抹杀近几年来所取得的减贫进展。", "index": 4548}
{"en": "The problem is that Africa’s growth, while impressive, has been volatile, because it has been driven mainly by high commodity prices, rather than by manufacturing.", "zh": "问题在于，非洲的增长虽然耀眼，但很不稳定，因为其主要系受到大宗商品价格高企而非制造业驱动。", "index": 4549}
{"en": "The economic effects of this imbalance should not be underestimated.", "zh": "这一失衡的经济影响不可低估。", "index": 4550}
{"en": "Among other things, it explains why a region that produces about 75% of the world’s cocoa accounts for just 5% of the nearly $100 billion annual chocolate market.", "zh": "它和其他因素一起导致了非洲产出全世界75%的可可，却只占近每年价值1,000亿美元的巧克力市场的5 % 。", "index": 4551}
{"en": "Despite its vast natural resources, Africa will remain at the mercy of commodity prices and trade flows until it undertakes a profound structural transformation.", "zh": "尽管拥有大量自然资源，非洲仍然需要靠大宗商品价格和贸易流吃饭，除非它实现深层次结构转换。", "index": 4552}
{"en": "The time has come for Africa to unlock its true economic potential by following in the footsteps of every modern economy and undertaking the transition from agriculture to manufacturing.", "zh": "非洲应该尽快循着所有现代经济体的轨迹，完成从农业到制造业的转型，释放其真正的经济潜力。", "index": 4553}
{"en": "Africa’s manufacturing sector is the weakest link in its ongoing integration into the global economy.", "zh": "在非洲融入全球经济的过程中，制造业是最弱的一环。", "index": 4554}
{"en": "Today, primary products (raw materials) comprise 62% of Africa’s total exports, the highest share in the world.", "zh": "今天，初级商品（原材料）占了非洲总出口额的62 % ， 这一比例为全球最高。", "index": 4555}
{"en": "At the same time, manufactured exports per capita in 2014 totaled just $218, which is among the lowest levels in the world, and far below other developing regions such as Asia ($883) and Latin America ($1,099).", "zh": "与此同时，2014年人均制造业出口总量只有128美元，位居世界最低行列，远低于亚洲（883美元）和拉丁美洲（1,099美元）等其他发展中地区。", "index": 4556}
{"en": "Clearly, Africa must start catching up.", "zh": "显然，非洲必须开始赶超。", "index": 4557}
{"en": "Fortunately, there is already a global consensus that industrialization matters, and that it is in everyone’s interest for Africa to become the global manufacturing power it ought to be.", "zh": "幸运的是，全球化很重要已是全球共识，而让非洲成为其应该成为的全球制造力量符合所有人的利益。", "index": 4558}
{"en": "With its “High 5 Agenda,” the African Development Bank (AfDB) has made industrialization a top priority.", "zh": "非洲开发银行（AfDB）提出了“五项重点日程 ” ， 将工业化列为最重要的工作。", "index": 4559}
{"en": "Likewise, industrialization is a key component of the African Union’s “Agenda 2063.”", "zh": "类似地，工业化也是非盟“2063日程”的重要组成部分。", "index": 4560}
{"en": "And, in 2016, the United Nations General Assembly declared 2016-2025 the “Third Industrial Development Decade for Africa.”", "zh": "2016年，联合国大会宣布2016—2025年为“非洲工业发展的第三个十年 ” 。", "index": 4561}
{"en": "But such pronouncements are meaningless in the absence of concrete action.", "zh": "但如果不拿出切实行动，这些宣告都毫无意义。", "index": 4562}
{"en": "To change the region’s economic trajectory, African policymakers must focus on three key areas: industrial policies, infrastructure financing, and leadership.", "zh": "要改变非洲的经济轨迹，非洲决策者必须聚焦于三个关键领域：产业政策，制造业融资，以及领导力。", "index": 4563}
{"en": "We now know that industrial policies can be effective in boosting growth.", "zh": "我们现在知道，产业政策对于刺激增长十分有效。", "index": 4564}
{"en": "The question is whether states possess the capacity to implement the policies they design.", "zh": "问题在于国家是否具备实施它们制定的政策的能力。", "index": 4565}
{"en": "If they do, they can channel resources toward industry and marshal available technologies to create synergy between the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.", "zh": "如果具备，它们可以引导资源流向工业，利用可以利用的技术实现农业和制造业的协同。", "index": 4566}
{"en": "A number of African countries have already moved in this direction.", "zh": "不少非洲国家已经开始朝这一方向努力。", "index": 4567}
{"en": "Ethiopia, for example, has created special economic zones, where it has lowered production costs by investing in infrastructure.", "zh": "比如，埃塞俄比亚成立了特别经济区，通过基础设施投资降低生产成本。", "index": 4568}
{"en": "As a result, the country has emerged as Africa’s largest hub for textile manufacturing, attracting major players like H&M and Primark.", "zh": "结果，埃塞俄比亚成为非洲最大的纺织品制造中心，吸引了H&M和普利马克（Primark）等服装大牌。", "index": 4569}
{"en": "Similarly, Rwanda’s Kigali Special Economic Zone, which exempts firms from taxes for ten years, has attracted a $20 million investment from Volkswagen for a new vehicle-assembly plant.", "zh": "类似对，卢旺达的基加利特别经济区（Kigali Special Economic Zone）拥有十年免税权，吸引大众汽车公司投资2,000万美元建立了新的汽车组装厂。", "index": 4570}
{"en": "But industrialization cannot happen without power, roads, and railways, which is why infrastructure must be a key focus.", "zh": "但工业化不可能在没有电力、公路和铁路的情况下凭空出现，因此，基础设施也必须是关键。", "index": 4571}
{"en": "As of now, the AfDB pegs Africa’s infrastructure gap at $130–170 billion per year.", "zh": "目前，AfDB认为非洲基础设施缺口在每年1,300—1,700亿美元。", "index": 4572}
{"en": "Closing it will require not just more financing, but also more innovative thinking, particularly concerning joint public-private efforts.", "zh": "填补这一缺口不仅需要更多的融资，也需要创新思维，特别是公私合作方面的创新思维。", "index": 4573}
{"en": "To that end, the AfDB has expanded its portfolio for financing new infrastructure projects in several countries.", "zh": "在这方面，AfDB扩大了多国新基础设施项目的贷款。", "index": 4574}
{"en": "As part of our “New Deal on Energy for Africa,” we have scaled up investment in renewable energy and put $265 million toward developing two solar-power plants in Morocco.", "zh": "作为我们的“非洲能源新政”的一部分，我们增加了在可再生能源方面的投资，并拿出2.65亿美元用于开发墨西哥的两座太阳能电厂。", "index": 4575}
{"en": "In Côte d’Ivoire, where demand for energy is surging by 8-9% annually, we are investing $60 million to bring a new 44-megawatt hydropower plant onstream.", "zh": "在科特迪瓦，能源需求以每年8—9%的速度飙升，我们投资了6,000万美元在上游建立了一座新的44百万瓦的水电站。", "index": 4576}
{"en": "African countries should make such investments now to reap the demographic dividend of the continent’s population bulge in the years ahead.", "zh": "非洲国家应该多做这样的投资，从而在未来多年内实现非洲人口膨胀所带来的人口红利。", "index": 4577}
{"en": "As manufacturing activities expand, they will need to be supported by more robust knowledge- and skill-based economies, which will require higher investment in education to boost technical and vocational skills and training.", "zh": "随着制造业活动的扩张，需要更强大的以知识和技能为基础的经济的支持，这需要提高教育投资，提振技术和职业技能和培训。", "index": 4578}
{"en": "No country has ever undergone economic modernization without industry.", "zh": "没有一个国家可以在没有工业的情况下实现经济现代化。", "index": 4579}
{"en": "But, more to the point, no functional industrial sector has ever emerged in the absence of strong, committed leadership.", "zh": "但说得更透彻些，如果没有强大坚定的领导力，就不会有能正常运转的工业部门。", "index": 4580}
{"en": "Consider Mauritius, which in the 1970s was a low-income mono-crop economy with a per capita GDP of just under $250.", "zh": "以毛里求斯为例，20世纪70年代，它还是一个低收入的单一作物经济体，人均GDP只有250美元。", "index": 4581}
{"en": "Today, Mauritius is an upper-middle-income country with a more diversified economy and a per capita GDP of around $9,600.", "zh": "如今，它已是中上收入国家，经济实现了多样化，人均GDP高达9,600美元。", "index": 4582}
{"en": "It is often cited as a model of economic success in Africa.", "zh": "它经常被视为非洲经济成功的榜样。", "index": 4583}
{"en": "How did this come about?", "zh": "这一切是如何造就的？", "index": 4584}
{"en": "As former Mauritian Prime Minister and President Anerood Jugnauth has put it, “There is no miracle.", "zh": "毛里求斯前首相兼总统贾格纳特说 ： “ 没有奇迹。", "index": 4585}
{"en": "It is due simply to hard work, discipline, and will.”", "zh": "无非是努力工作、纪律和意志。", "index": 4586}
{"en": "Leaders who want to develop a strong manufacturing base must have the political will to distribute resources fairly and pull the private sector along.", "zh": "”想要发展强大制造业基础的领导人必须具备政治意志公平分配资源并与私人部门携手共进。", "index": 4587}
{"en": "Mauritius experienced its fair share of challenges in moving from low-end manufacturing to technology-intensive goods and services.", "zh": "毛里求斯在从低端制造业向技术密集型商品和服务转变时也遇到了各种挑战。", "index": 4588}
{"en": "But it now stands as an example of what committed leadership can accomplish.", "zh": "但如今，它已成为坚定的领导力能够取得什么成就的范例。", "index": 4589}
{"en": "Other African countries would do well to emulate it as they pursue their own economic transformations.", "zh": "其他非洲国家在追求各自的经济转型时，若能效而仿之，必能取得成效。", "index": 4590}
{"en": "All told, Africa is well placed to seize many of the opportunities that the global economy offers emerging markets.", "zh": "总而言之，非洲大有希望能够抓住全球经济给新兴市场带来的诸多机会。", "index": 4591}
{"en": "It already has the resources and the labor; now it needs committed leaders like Jugnauth who will implement the right policies.", "zh": "它拥有资源和劳动力；现在，它需要贾格纳特这样的坚定的领导人来实施正确的政策。", "index": 4592}
{"en": "Africa’s Alternative Path to Development", "zh": "非洲的另一条发展路径", "index": 4593}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Recent projections indicate that several Sub-Saharan African countries will experience robust economic growth over the next five years.", "zh": "发自华盛顿特区 — — 最近的几项预测指出几个撒哈拉以南非洲国家将在未来五年中实现强劲的经济增长。", "index": 4594}
{"en": "By 2023, around one-third of the region’s economies will have grown at an average annual rate of 5% or higher since 2000.", "zh": "从2000年到2023年间，该地区约有1/3的经济体将达到5％甚至更高的年均增长率。", "index": 4595}
{"en": "And yet, as The Economist observed last year, Africa’s development model “puzzles economists.”", "zh": "但正如《经济学人》杂志在去年观察到的那样，非洲的发展模式“让经济学家们感到困惑 ” 。", "index": 4596}
{"en": "After all, only four of the continent’s high-growth countries are natural-resource dependent.", "zh": "毕竟该大陆只有四个高增长国家是资源依赖型的。", "index": 4597}
{"en": "Nor is overall performance due primarily to industrialization, as traditional development models would have predicted.", "zh": "此外总体的发展也并不像传统发展模式所预测的那样主要由工业化所推动。", "index": 4598}
{"en": "What, then, explains the strong economic performance?", "zh": "那么又该如何解读这一强劲经济表现呢？", "index": 4599}
{"en": "New research by the Brookings Institution’s Africa Growth Initiative and the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER) might hold the key to answering that question.", "zh": "由布鲁金斯学会的非洲增长倡议课题组和联合国大学世界发展经济研究所联合进行的新研究可能拥有解答这个问题的钥匙。", "index": 4600}
{"en": "According to the forthcoming book Industries Without Smokestacks: Industrialization in Africa Reconsidered, there is evidence to suggest that Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing a more profound structural transformation than we think.", "zh": "根据即将出版的《无烟工业：对非洲工业化的重新思考》一书，有证据表明撒哈拉以南非洲正在经历着比我们想象中更为深刻的结构性转型。", "index": 4601}
{"en": "Africa owes this structural transformation not to traditional industries, but to new developments in tradable services and agro-industries that resemble traditional industrialization.", "zh": "非洲这种结构性转型并非来自于传统工业，而是类似传统工业化进程的可贸易服务业和农业产业的新发展。", "index": 4602}
{"en": "Aside from horticulture and agro-business, these new industries include information and communication technology-based services (ICT) and tourism.", "zh": "除园艺和农产品业务外，这些新兴产业还包括基于信息和通信技术的服务业和旅游业。", "index": 4603}
{"en": "This is a departure from the historical norm.", "zh": "这就与历史常态背道而驰。", "index": 4604}
{"en": "Traditionally, as Harvard University economist Dani Rodrik points out, economies that have sustained robust growth rates without relying on natural-resource booms, “typically do so through export-oriented industrialization.”", "zh": "传统上，正如哈佛大学经济学家丹尼·罗迪克指出的那样，那些在不依赖高价自然资源的情况下保持强劲增长率的经济体“通常通过以出口为导向的工业化来实现增长 ” 。", "index": 4605}
{"en": "But in Africa, manufacturing as a share of total economic activity has stagnated at around 10%, with economic activity moving from agriculture to services.", "zh": "但在非洲，制造业占经济活动总量的比例一直停留在10％左右，经济活动也从农业直接跳到了服务业。", "index": 4606}
{"en": "And because the rate of productivity growth in services is only about half that of manufacturing, the aggregate productivity gains needed for sustained growth have fallen relatively short.", "zh": "由于服务业的生产率增长只有制造业的一半左右，因此实现持续增长所需的总体生产率增加值也相对较少。", "index": 4607}
{"en": "This process of premature deindustrialization is not unique to Africa.", "zh": "这种过早的去工业化进程可不是非洲独有的。", "index": 4608}
{"en": "But it is more consequential for the continent, given the scale of its development challenges.", "zh": "但考虑到非洲所面临的各项发展挑战的规模，这一进程对这块大陆的意义极为重大。", "index": 4609}
{"en": "Owing to its young, rapidly growing labor force, Africa now needs to create more than 11 million jobs in the formal economy every year.", "zh": "由于其劳动力大军普遍年轻且增长迅速，非洲现在还需要每年在正规经济中创造超过1100万个就业岗位。", "index": 4610}
{"en": "But as Nobel laureate economist Joseph E. Stiglitz has warned, Africa cannot replicate East Asia’s manufacturing-led model, so the question is whether it can leverage modern services to achieve economic development.", "zh": "但正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格里茨（Joseph E. Stiglitz）所警告的那样，非洲无法复制东亚那种制造业主导的模式，因此问题是它能否借助现代服务来实现经济发展。", "index": 4611}
{"en": "According to Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for 2018, a Brookings Institution report previewing the results of Industries Without Smokestacks, services exports from Africa grew more than six times faster than merchandise exports between 1998 and 2015.", "zh": "根据布鲁金斯学会发布的《非洲前瞻：2018年的重点优先事项》报告 — — 该报告概述了《无烟工业》一书中的各项结论 — — 在1998到2015年间，非洲的服务出口增速比商品出口增速快了六倍以上。", "index": 4612}
{"en": "In Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, and South Africa, the ICT sector is flourishing.", "zh": "在肯尼亚，卢旺达，塞内加尔和南非，基于信息和通信技术的服务业都实现了蓬勃发展。", "index": 4613}
{"en": "In Rwanda, tourism is now the single largest export activity, accounting for about 30% of total exports.", "zh": "在卢旺达，旅游业已经成为规模最大的单一出口活动，占到了该国出口总额的近30 ％ 。", "index": 4614}
{"en": "Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal are all integrated into global horticultural value chains, and Ethiopia has become a leading player in global flower exports.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚，加纳，肯尼亚和塞内加尔都融入了全球园艺价值链，而埃塞俄比亚也已晋身为全球花卉出口的主要参与者。", "index": 4615}
{"en": "As these smokestack-less industries have grown, they have generated new patterns of structural change that are distinct from those of East Asia’s manufacturing-led transformation.", "zh": "随着这些无烟工业的发展，它们产生了与东亚制造业主导型转型不同的新结构变化模式。", "index": 4616}
{"en": "But, if properly stewarded, they could play the same role in Africa’s development as manufacturing did in East Asia.", "zh": "如果进行适当的统筹管理，这些工业也可以在非洲的发展中扮演和东亚制造业一样的角色。", "index": 4617}
{"en": "First, manufacturing has higher productivity than agriculture, and it can absorb a large number of moderately skilled workers migrating out of the agriculture sector. Second, manufacturers benefit from technological transfers from abroad, so their productivity rises in line with global trends.", "zh": "而制造业带动的增长之所以能成为东亚地区有效的发展模式，主要有三大原因：首先，制造业的生产率高于农业，可以吸收大量从农业部门迁移出来的中等技术工人；其次，制造商受益于来自国外的技术转让，所以它们的生产率提升速率与全球趋势同步；第三，东亚制造业以出口为导向，使得生产得以扩大。", "index": 4618}
{"en": "According to John Page, one of the editors of Industries Without Smokestacks, Africa’s growing service sectors share these same characteristics.", "zh": "正如《无烟工业》的编者之一约翰·佩奇（John Page）所说，非洲不断增长的服务部门具备相同的特点。", "index": 4619}
{"en": "In addition to being tradable, they have higher productivity and can absorb large numbers of moderately skilled workers.", "zh": "除了可交易外，它们还具有较高的生产力，可以吸收大量中等技术工人。", "index": 4620}
{"en": "And like manufacturing, they also benefit from technological change and economies of scale and agglomeration.", "zh": "像制造业一样，它们也受益于技术变革和经济的规模集聚效应。", "index": 4621}
{"en": "Moreover, Africa’s smokestack-less service sectors have the added advantage of being less vulnerable to automation.", "zh": "此外，非洲这些无烟服务部门还具有不易受工业自动化影响的优势。", "index": 4622}
{"en": "Notwithstanding automation’s many benefits, it presents challenges for countries where the overriding priority is to create a sufficient number of formal-sector jobs.", "zh": "尽管自动化有许多好处，但也为那些首要任务是创造足够数量正规部门就业岗位的国家提出了挑战。", "index": 4623}
{"en": "While economists have been increasingly confident that Africa’s development model will be different from that of East Asia, they have been less certain about what shape it will take.", "zh": "虽然经济学家越来越确信非洲的发展模式会与东亚不同，但他们对这种模式的最终形式还不确定。", "index": 4624}
{"en": "An industries-without-smokestacks model offers one possible answer.", "zh": "为此一个无烟工业模式则提供了一个潜在的答案。", "index": 4625}
{"en": "From a policy perspective, African leaders should explore more ways to support these industries’ growth, either through targeted reforms or by incorporating them into national industrialization strategies and broader development agendas.", "zh": "从政策角度来看，非洲领导人应该通过有针对性的改革或将其纳入国家工业化战略以及更广泛的发展议程来探索更多支持这些行业发展的方式。", "index": 4626}
{"en": "The development of industries without smokestacks can occur alongside efforts to develop those with smokestacks, thus offering a multifaceted approach for Africa to achieve structural transformation.", "zh": "无烟工业的发展可以与发展有烟工业的努力齐头并进，从而为非洲实现结构转型提供一个多方面多层次的路径。", "index": 4627}
{"en": "Banking on African Infrastructure", "zh": "寄希望于非洲的基础设施建设", "index": 4628}
{"en": "JOHANNESBURG – As the US Federal Reserve embarks on the “great unwinding” of the stimulus program it began nearly a decade ago, emerging economies are growing anxious that a stronger dollar will adversely affect their ability to service dollar-denominated debt.", "zh": "约翰内斯堡 — — 随着美联储开始“大逆转”近十年前开始的刺激计划，新兴经济体越来越担心美元走强会对其以美元计价债务的偿付能力造成负面影响。", "index": 4629}
{"en": "This is a particular concern for Africa, where, since the Seychelles issued its debut Eurobond in 2006, the total value of outstanding Eurobonds has grown to nearly $35 billion.", "zh": "对非洲而言这种担忧尤其严重，自塞舌尔2006年发行首支欧元债以来，尚未偿还的欧元债总值已经增长到近350亿美元。", "index": 4630}
{"en": "But if the Fed’s ongoing withdrawal of stimulus has frayed African nerves, it has also spurred recognition that there are smarter ways to finance development than borrowing in dollars.", "zh": "但如果说美联储持续退出刺激计划已经挑动了非洲国家的神经，同时也令人们意识到有比借美元债更加明智的发展融资方法。", "index": 4631}
{"en": "Of the available options, one specific asset class stands out: infrastructure.", "zh": "在现有方案中，有一种特定的资产类别脱颖而出：那就是基础设施建设。", "index": 4632}
{"en": "Africa, which by 2050 will be home to an estimated 2.6 billion people, is in dire need of funds to build and maintain roads, ports, power grids, and so on.", "zh": "非洲预计到2050年人口将达26亿左右，因此急需资金来修建和维护道路、港口、电网等基础设施。", "index": 4633}
{"en": "According to the World Bank, Africa must spend a staggering $93 billion annually to upgrade its current infrastructure; the vast majority of these funds – some 87% – are needed for improvements to basic services like energy, water, sanitation, and transportation.", "zh": "据世界银行统计，非洲必须每年花费惊人的930亿美元用于升级其现有基础设施；而这些资金中的绝大多数 — — 约占87 % — —将用于改善能源、饮用水、卫生和交通运输等基础服务。", "index": 4634}
{"en": "Yet, if the recent past is any guide, the capital needed will be difficult to secure.", "zh": "但如果说过去有任何经验可以借鉴，那就是筹措所需资金绝不是一项轻而易举的任务。", "index": 4635}
{"en": "Between 2004 and 2013, African states closed just 158 financing deals for infrastructure or industrial projects, valued at $59 billion – just 5% of the total needed.", "zh": "在2004到2013年间，非洲国家仅实际完成了158项基础设施或工业项目的融资交易，总值590亿美元 — — 仅占所需资金总额的5 % 。", "index": 4636}
{"en": "Given this track record, how will Africa fund even a fraction of the World Bank’s projected requirements?", "zh": "鉴于这样的过往经历，非洲能否筹措到世界银行预测要求的哪怕一小部分资金都存在很大变数。", "index": 4637}
{"en": "The obvious source is institutional and foreign investment.", "zh": "最明显的资金来源是机构和国外投资。", "index": 4638}
{"en": "But, to date, many factors, including poor profit projections and political uncertainty, have limited such financing for infrastructure projects on the continent.", "zh": "但到目前为止，许多因素，包括盈利预测不佳和政治不稳定，都对非洲大陆基础设施项目的融资能力构成了严重的限制。", "index": 4639}
{"en": "Investment in African infrastructure is perceived as simply being too risky.", "zh": "对非洲基础设施项目投资被视为高风险的选项。", "index": 4640}
{"en": "Fortunately, with work, this perception can be overcome, as some investors – such as the African Development Bank, the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and the Trade & Development Bank – have already demonstrated.", "zh": "幸运的是，就像一些投资者 — — 如非洲开发银行、南部非洲开发银行和贸易发展银行 — — 已经证明的那样，经过艰苦的努力，这种消极的看法可以被克服。", "index": 4641}
{"en": "Companies from the private sector are also profitably financing projects on the continent.", "zh": "来自私营部门的企业同样可以在非洲大陆基础设施项目融资当中有利可图。", "index": 4642}
{"en": "For example, Black Rhino, a fund set up by Blackstone, one of the world’s largest multinational private equity firms, focuses on the development and acquisition of energy projects, such as fuel storage, pipelines, and transmission networks.", "zh": "例如，由黑石公司设立的黑犀牛基金是全世界规模最大的跨国私募股权公司之一，该基金专门从事燃料储存、管道和输送网络等能源项目的开发和采购。", "index": 4643}
{"en": "But these are the exceptions, not the rule.", "zh": "但这些皆属例外，而非规则。", "index": 4644}
{"en": "Fully funding Africa’s infrastructure shortfall will require attracting many more investors – and swiftly.", "zh": "充分筹措资金解决非洲的基础设施短缺问题需要迅速吸引更多的投资者。", "index": 4645}
{"en": "To succeed, Africa must develop a more coherent and coordinated approach to courting capital, while at the same time working to mitigate investors’ risk exposure.", "zh": "要想取得成功，非洲必须制定一种更为协调一致的方法来讨好资本，并同时竭尽全力控制投资者的风险敞口。", "index": 4646}
{"en": "Public-private sector collaborations are one possibility.", "zh": "公共和私营部门合作提供了一种可能性。", "index": 4647}
{"en": "For example, in the energy sector, independent power producers are working with governments to provide electricity to 620 million Africans living off the grid.", "zh": "例如，在能源领域，独立的电力生产企业正在与政府合作为6.2亿尚未接入电网的非洲民众提供电能。", "index": 4648}
{"en": "Privately funded but government regulated, these producers operate through power purchase agreements, whereby public utilities and regulators agree to purchase electricity at a predetermined price.", "zh": "这些电力生产企业由私人出资并接受政府监管，通过电力采购协议来完成运营，公共事业部门和监管机构在电力采购协议中同意以事先约定的价格采购电力供应。", "index": 4649}
{"en": "There are approximately 130 such producers in Sub-Saharan Africa, valued at more than $8 billion.", "zh": "撒哈拉以南非洲地区约有130家这样的电力生产企业，总值超过80亿美元。", "index": 4650}
{"en": "In South Africa alone, 47 projects are underway, accounting for 7,000 megawatts of additional power production.", "zh": "仅南非一地就在开展47个相关项目，总共可以达到7000兆瓦的新增电力产能。", "index": 4651}
{"en": "Similar private-public partnerships are emerging in other sectors, too, such as transportation.", "zh": "交通运输等其他部门也正在出现类似的公私合作关系。", "index": 4652}
{"en": "Among the most promising are toll roads built with private money, a model that began in South Africa.", "zh": "其中最有前景的当属最早出现在南非的由私人投资兴建的收费公路。", "index": 4653}
{"en": "Not only are these projects, which are slowly appearing elsewhere on the continent, more profitable than most financial market investments; they are also literally paving the way for future growth.", "zh": "这些在非洲大陆其他地方逐渐出现的项目不仅比多数金融市场投资更有利可图；而且正在事实上为未来的经济增长铺平道路。", "index": 4654}
{"en": "Clearly, Africa needs more of these ventures to overcome its infrastructure challenges.", "zh": "显而易见，非洲需要更多这样的合资公司才能迎接基础设施所带来的挑战。", "index": 4655}
{"en": "That is why I, along with other African business leaders and policymakers, have called on Africa’s institutional investors to commit 5% of their funds to local infrastructure.", "zh": "因此我和非洲商业领袖及决策者共同呼吁非洲机构投资者将5%的资金用于投资当地的基础设施。", "index": 4656}
{"en": "We believe that with the right incentives, infrastructure can be an innovative and attractive asset class for those with long-term liabilities.", "zh": "我们相信只要激励措施得当，基础设施对那些拥有长期负债的机构而言完全可以成为创新且有吸引力的资产类别。", "index": 4657}
{"en": "One sector that could lead the way on this commitment is the continent’s pension funds, which, together, possess a balance sheet of about $3 trillion.", "zh": "能够领导这一目标的部门之一是非洲大陆的养老基金，该部门合计拥有约3万亿美元的资产负债表。", "index": 4658}
{"en": "The 5% Agenda campaign, launched in New York last month, underscores the belief that only a collaborative public-private approach can redress Africa’s infrastructure shortfall.", "zh": "上个月在纽约启动的5%议程行动强调了这样一种理念，即仅有公私合作方式能够改变非洲的基础设施短缺。", "index": 4659}
{"en": "For years, a lack of bankable projects deterred international financing.", "zh": "多年以来，缺乏银行贷款项目阻碍了国际融资。", "index": 4660}
{"en": "But in 2012, the African Union adopted the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa, which kick-started more than 400 energy, transportation, water, and communications projects.", "zh": "但2012年，非洲联盟通过了非洲基础设施开发计划，启动了超过400个能源、交通运输、水资源和通讯项目。", "index": 4661}
{"en": "It was a solid start – one that the 5% Agenda seeks to build upon.", "zh": "这是一个相当不错的开始 — — 也是5%议程行动赖以存在的基础。", "index": 4662}
{"en": "But some key reforms will be needed.", "zh": "但必须进行某些关键领域的改革。", "index": 4663}
{"en": "A high priority of the 5% Agenda is to assist in updating the national and regional regulatory frameworks that guide institutional investment in Africa.", "zh": "5%议程行动的重要目标是协助升级国家和地区监管框架，从而引导非洲的机构投资。", "index": 4664}
{"en": "Similarly, new financial products must be developed to give asset owners the ability to allocate capital directly to infrastructure projects.", "zh": "同样，必须开发新的金融产品，以便资产所有者能够将资金直接划拨给基础设施项目。", "index": 4665}
{"en": "Unlocking new pools of capital will help create jobs, encourage regional integration, and ensure that Africa has the facilities to accommodate the needs of future generations.", "zh": "解锁新的资金池将有助于创造就业机会、鼓励区域一体化及确保非洲拥有能满足子孙后代需求的基础设施项目。", "index": 4666}
{"en": "But all of this depends on persuading investors to put their money into African projects.", "zh": "但所有这些都取决于能否说服投资者将资金投入非洲建设项目。", "index": 4667}
{"en": "As business leaders and policymakers, we must ensure that the conditions for profitability and social impact are not mutually exclusive.", "zh": "身为商界领袖和决策者，我们必须确保赚取利润和社会影响的条件能够相互融合。", "index": 4668}
{"en": "When development goals and profits align, everyone wins.", "zh": "如果发展目标能够和利润保持一致，那么所有人都是赢家。", "index": 4669}
{"en": "Freeing Africa’s Internet", "zh": "解放非洲的互联网", "index": 4670}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Much to the dismay of the government in Addis Ababa, “Zone 9” has become a household name in Ethiopia.", "zh": "华盛顿—让亚的斯亚贝巴政府大吃一惊的是 ， “ 第九区 ” （ Zone 9）成了埃塞俄比亚一个家喻户晓的名字。", "index": 4671}
{"en": "Since 2012, this small group of journalists-turned-online activists has used social media to campaign for political freedoms and civil liberties in their country.", "zh": "2012年以来，这个线上记者活跃分子团体利用社交媒体要求国家实现政治自由和公民自由。", "index": 4672}
{"en": "The group’s success – measured, for example, by the flood of likes and comments on its Facebook page – has come in spite of government efforts to silence the writers, including the arrest of six members in 2014 on trumped-up terrorism charges.", "zh": "它的成功 — — 比如可以用其Facebook页面上的点赞和评论数量衡量 — — 是在政府试图让写手噤声的情况下取得的，包括2014年六名成员因为子虚乌有的恐怖主义指控而被逮捕。", "index": 4673}
{"en": "Ethiopia’s government is not alone in seeking to consolidate political power by restricting what citizens say online.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚政府不是唯一一个试图通过限制公民的网络言论来巩固政治权力的政府。", "index": 4674}
{"en": "Across Africa, governments are enacting legislation to restrict Internet access and outlaw criticism of elected officials.", "zh": "放眼非洲，许多政府都实施了限制互联网接入、将对当选官员的批评入罪的法律。", "index": 4675}
{"en": "Digital campaigners face myriad censorship tactics, including “Border Gateway Protocol” attacks, “HTTP throttling,” and “deep packet inspections.”", "zh": "数字活动家面对各种审查技术，如“边界网关协议”攻击 、 “ HTTP限流”和“深层封包检测”等。", "index": 4676}
{"en": "The irony, of course, is that censorship rarely quiets the disaffected.", "zh": "当然，讽刺的是审查很少能够让不满噤声。", "index": 4677}
{"en": "Rather than quelling dissent, government intervention only inspires more people to take their grievances to WhatsApp, Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms, where Africans are increasingly challenging corrupt governments, exposing rigged elections, and demanding to be heard.", "zh": "政府干预非但不能镇压异见，反而刺激了更多的人在WhatApp、Facebook、Twitter和其他社交媒体平台上宣泄不满，非洲人通过这些渠道对日益挑战腐败的政府、曝光被操纵的选举，并要求自己的声音被听到。", "index": 4678}
{"en": "At the moment, however, few of Africa’s leaders are listening.", "zh": "但此时此刻，很少有非洲领导人在聆听。", "index": 4679}
{"en": "Leaders in nine of the 18 African countries that held elections in 2016 placed some level of restriction on the Internet to limit dissent.", "zh": "在2016年举行了选举的18个非洲国家中，有九个国家的领导人实施了某种程度的互联网限制以遏制异见。", "index": 4680}
{"en": "Four days prior to Uganda’s presidential vote in February, President Yoweri Museveni cut access to mobile payment services and social media sites.", "zh": "2月份乌干达总统选举投票前四天，总统穆塞韦尼切断了移动支付服务和社交媒体网站。", "index": 4681}
{"en": "In August and September, Gabon’s president, Ali Bongo, seeking to project an atmosphere of calm to the international community, shut down Internet access overnight.", "zh": "8月和9月，加蓬总统班戈意欲在国际社会面前营造平静的氛围，关闭了夜间互联网接入。", "index": 4682}
{"en": "Then in December, officials in Democratic Republic of the Congo ordered an Internet shutdown the day before President Joseph Kabila was scheduled to leave office, thereby quashing online dissent when he refused to step down.", "zh": "12月，民主刚果官员下令在总统卡比拉卸任前一天关闭互联网，以压制他拒绝下台所引发的网上异见。", "index": 4683}
{"en": "Internet blackouts like these violate people’s human rights and undermine democratic processes.", "zh": "这类断网行为违反了人权，也破坏了民主进程。", "index": 4684}
{"en": "Last year, the United Nations Human Rights Council approved a resolution affirming that, “rights that people have offline must also be protected online, in particular freedom of expression.”", "zh": "去年，联合国人权委员会通过了一项决议，重申“人们在线下的权利，在线上也必须得到保护，特别是言论自由。 ”", "index": 4685}
{"en": "Most African governments try to justify Internet embargoes by arguing that the restrictions are necessary to ensure public safety and security.", "zh": "大部分非洲政府用辩称断网是为了确保公共安全和安保而不得已而为之。", "index": 4686}
{"en": "Museveni, for example, claimed that blocking Internet access was the only way to protect visiting heads of state during his swearing-in ceremony.", "zh": "比如，穆塞韦尼宣称切断互联网接入是在其就职典礼上保护来访的各国首脑的唯一办法。", "index": 4687}
{"en": "But he presented no evidence linking social media accessibility and security in Uganda, or anywhere else.", "zh": "但他没有拿出任何证据证明社交媒体接入和乌干达或其他任何国家的安全有什么联系。", "index": 4688}
{"en": "According to Access Now, an international advocacy group for digital rights, people typically feel less secure without the Internet, because they cannot access information or connect with friends and family in times of uncertainty.", "zh": "据推动数字权利的国际团体“马上连通 ” （ Access Now）组织的数据，断网通常让人感到更不安全，因为人们无法在不确定时获得信息或与亲朋取得联系。", "index": 4689}
{"en": "With several key African elections coming up, Internet shutdowns are again on the horizon.", "zh": "随着多个非洲国家重要选举的临近，断网也再次走进人们的视野。", "index": 4690}
{"en": "In Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe, who is 93, is expected to run for his eighth term in mid-2018, a government-led crackdown appears inevitable.", "zh": "在津巴布韦，93岁的总统穆加贝预计将履任其第八个总统任期（从2018年年中开始 ） ， 政府主导的镇压行动看来已是势在必行。", "index": 4691}
{"en": "For decades, Mugabe has relied on intimidation and violence to stifle political dissent.", "zh": "几十年来，穆加贝依靠恐吓和暴力扼杀政治异见。", "index": 4692}
{"en": "It is not surprising, then, that he has already begun taking a hostile approach to online activism.", "zh": "因此，毫不奇怪，他早已对在线活动持敌对态度。", "index": 4693}
{"en": "Last year, his government shut down the Internet in the middle of political protests, and vowed to arrest anyone caught generating or sharing “abusive or subversive material on social media.”", "zh": "去年，他的政府在政治示威期间关闭了互联网，并宣称要逮捕所有制造或分享“社交媒体上的诽谤或颠覆性材料”的人。", "index": 4694}
{"en": "But citizens are not helpless.", "zh": "但公民并非无望。", "index": 4695}
{"en": "While governments issue orders to cut off Internet access, only telecommunications companies have the ability to hit the “kill switch.”", "zh": "政府固然可以下令断网，但只有通讯公司有能力按下“死亡开关 ” 。", "index": 4696}
{"en": "That is why Africa’s bloggers and online activists must work more closely with investors and shareholders of communications firms to convince them to stand up for democracy and human rights by resisting illiberal government directives.", "zh": "因此，非洲博客写手和在线活动家们必须更加紧密地与通讯企业的投资者和股东合作，说服他们力挺民主和人权，拒绝反自由的政府指令。", "index": 4697}
{"en": "Moreover, civil-society groups, the African Union, and the UN should do more to condemn national legislation that aims to normalize restrictive Internet policies.", "zh": "此外，公民社会团体、非洲联盟和联合国应该加大力度谴责旨在将限制互联网的政策常规化的立法。", "index": 4698}
{"en": "Just as it launched a model law on access to information in 2013, the African Union should provide new guidance to states on how to safeguard the right to assemble and express views online.", "zh": "2013年，非盟发布了信息接触示范法，如今，它应该为各国提供新的指引，教它们如何捍卫在线收集和表达观点的权利。", "index": 4699}
{"en": "Finally, new continent-wide measures are needed to ensure that Africans’ online rights are recognized and respected by their governments.", "zh": "最后，需要新的洲级措施确保非洲在线权利得到政府和承认和尊重。", "index": 4700}
{"en": "Although the UN Human Rights Council’s resolution to protect online freedoms is not binding, it offers a starting point for ensuring that governments allow citizens to use the Internet as a tool for maximizing political participation.", "zh": "尽管保护在线自由的联合国人权委员会决议不具有约束力，但它为确保政府允许公民将互联网用作政治参与最大化的工具提供了一个起点。", "index": 4701}
{"en": "Such interventions are needed now more than ever.", "zh": "这些干预比以往任何时候都更加需要。", "index": 4702}
{"en": "The Kenyan, Zimbabwean, and Ethiopian legislatures are currently considering laws that would permit significantly greater government control over Internet access.", "zh": "肯尼亚、津巴布韦和埃塞俄比亚立法机关正在考虑显著扩大政府互联网接入管制权的立法。", "index": 4703}
{"en": "Last year, Tanzania adopted legislation that has already been used to charge individuals with crimes who have criticized President John Magufuli on social media.", "zh": "去年，坦桑尼亚实施了一项立法，被用来对在社交媒体上批评总统马古富力的个人提起刑事指控。", "index": 4704}
{"en": "Whether governments bar citizens from gathering in public, signing petitions, or accessing the Internet and posting on social media makes no difference.", "zh": "不管政府是禁止公民公开集会、签署请愿书，还是禁止公民接入互联网并在社交媒体上发帖，并没有什么区别。", "index": 4705}
{"en": "All such measures are designed to strip citizens of their rights.", "zh": "所有这些措施都是为了剥夺公民的权利。", "index": 4706}
{"en": "The battle for freedom, as Zone 9 has shown, is no less real when the public square is the digital domain.", "zh": "第九区表明，为了自由的斗争在数字领域和在公共广场上一样真实。", "index": 4707}
{"en": "Capturing Africa’s High Returns", "zh": "抓住非洲的高回报机遇", "index": 4708}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Since 2000, at least half of the world’s fastest-growing economies have been in Africa.", "zh": "华盛顿 — — 自2000年来，至少半数世界增长最快的经济体来自非洲地区。", "index": 4709}
{"en": "And by 2030, Africa will be home to 1.7 billion people, whose combined consumer and business spending will total $6.7 trillion.", "zh": "而截至2030年，非洲将拥有17亿人口，其消费和商业支出的总额将高达6.7万亿美元。", "index": 4710}
{"en": "Seven years ago, the Harvard Business Review pointed out that Africa is also home to many of the world’s biggest opportunities.", "zh": "七年前，哈佛商业评论就曾指出非洲是全世界最大的机遇所在地。", "index": 4711}
{"en": "And yet, despite its tremendous business potential, Africa has not risen to the top of Western business leaders’ agendas.", "zh": "但尽管商业潜力巨大，非洲却并没有被西方商业领袖作为议程的重中之重。", "index": 4712}
{"en": "In fact, between 2014 and 2016, US exports to Africa fell by almost half, from $38 billion to $22 billion.", "zh": "事实上，从2014到2016年间，美国对非洲出口骤降近半，从美元380亿下降到美元220亿。", "index": 4713}
{"en": "And while the United Kingdom’s investments on the continent more than doubled between 2005 and 2014, reaching £42.5 billion ($57.6 billion), only 2.5% of its total exports are to Africa.", "zh": "而尽管英国对非洲大陆的投资在2005到2014年间增长超过一倍，达到425亿英镑（合576亿美元 ） ， 但针对非洲的出口总额仅占2.5 % 。", "index": 4714}
{"en": "Western countries are quickly losing ground to China, which increased its exports to Africa more than sevenfold – to $103 billion – from 2005 to 2015.", "zh": "西方国家面对中国的挑战正迅速丧失优势，从2005到2015年间，中国对非洲的出口增长了七倍以上 — — 高达1，030亿美元。", "index": 4715}
{"en": "If Western businesses hope to keep up, they will need to tap into the African countries and sectors with the highest potential for growth.", "zh": "如果西方企业想要跟上中国的脚步，他们就必须充分利用非洲增长潜力最大的国家和部门。", "index": 4716}
{"en": "By 2030, more than half of Africa’s population will reside in seven countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Tanzania, Kenya, and South Africa.", "zh": "到2030年，非洲超过一半的人口将居住在七个国家：包括尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、刚果民主共和国、埃及、坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚和南非。", "index": 4717}
{"en": "But, more important, 43% of Africans will belong to the middle or upper classes, up from 39.6% in 2013, implying considerably higher demand for goods and services.", "zh": "但更重要的是，43%的非洲人将上升至中上阶层， 而该数据在2013年仅为39.6 % ， 而这意味着对商品和服务的需求将大幅增加。", "index": 4718}
{"en": "By 2030, household consumption is expected to reach $2.5 trillion, up from $1.1 trillion in 2015.", "zh": "截止2030年，家庭消费预计将达到2.5万亿美元，而2015年的家庭消费总额仅有1.1万亿。", "index": 4719}
{"en": "Nearly half of that $2.5 trillion will be spent in three countries: Nigeria (20%), Egypt (17%), and South Africa (11%).", "zh": "其中三个国家将占到这2.5万亿美元消费总额的近半数：他们是尼日利亚（20 % ） 、埃及（17 % ） 和南非（11 % ） 。", "index": 4720}
{"en": "But there will also be lucrative opportunities in Algeria, Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia.", "zh": "但阿尔及利亚、安哥拉、埃塞俄比亚、加纳、肯尼亚、摩洛哥、苏丹和突尼斯均存在能提供丰厚回报的机遇。", "index": 4721}
{"en": "Any one of these countries would be a good bet for companies seeking to enter new markets.", "zh": "上述国家中的任何一个都可以提供开拓新市场的良好机会。", "index": 4722}
{"en": "By 2030, the sectors generating the most value in Africa will be food and beverages ($740 billion), education and transportation ($397 billion), and housing ($390 billion).", "zh": "截至2030年，食品饮料（7，400亿美元 ） 、 教育交通（3，970亿美元）和住房（3，900亿美元）将成为非洲创造最大价值的行业。", "index": 4723}
{"en": "But there will also be strong growth in consumer goods ($370 billion), hospitality and recreation ($260 billion), health care ($175 billion), financial services ($85 billion), and telecommunications ($65 billion).", "zh": "但消费品（3，700亿美元 ） 、 酒店和娱乐（2，600亿美元 ） 、 医疗保健（1，750亿美元 ） 、 金融服务（850亿美元）和电信服务（650亿美元）同样将会增长强劲。", "index": 4724}
{"en": "Of course, much of this growth will depend on the African Union properly implementing its new Continental Free Trade Area, which would create a single market for goods and services, offering corporations many points of entry.", "zh": "当然，增长最终能否实现将取决于非洲联盟能否成功推行其新大陆自由贸易区。 这项政策将创造一个统一的商品和服务市场，为企业提供不止一个切入点。", "index": 4725}
{"en": "Moreover, the CFTA will increase the need for connectivity, so there will be new opportunities to invest in infrastructure and sectors ranging from transportation and energy to information and communications technology (ICT) and water supplies.", "zh": "不仅如此，新大陆自由贸易区将提升互联互通的必要性，从而在基础设施和从交通、能源、信息及通信技术（ICT）到供水等各行各业创造新的投资机遇。", "index": 4726}
{"en": "For its part, the African Development Bank can help investors find promising projects through its Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa.", "zh": "在这方面，非洲开发银行可以通过其非洲基础设施发展计划帮助投资者找到前景广阔的项目。", "index": 4727}
{"en": "Another major growth area between now and 2030 will be in African business-to-business spending, which will reach $4.2 trillion, up from $1.6 trillion in 2015.", "zh": "非洲企业对企业支出将成为从现在起到2030年另外一个主要增长领域，该支出总额将达4.2万亿美元，而2015年仅有美元1.6万亿。", "index": 4728}
{"en": "Here, the largest sectors will be agriculture and agricultural processing ($915 billion), manufacturing ($666 billion), and construction, utilities, and transportation ($784 billion), followed by wholesale and retail ($665 billion), resources ($357 billion), banking and insurance ($249 billion), and telecommunications and ICT ($79.5 billion).", "zh": "其中最主要的部门将包括农业和农产品加工（9，150亿美元 ） 、 制造（6，660亿美元 ） 、 建筑、公共设施及交通（7，840亿美元 ） ， 其次还有批发和零售（6，650亿美元 ） 、 资源（3，570亿美元 ） 、 银行和保险（2，490亿美元）以及电信和信息及通讯技术（795亿美元 ） 。", "index": 4729}
{"en": "The expected growth in agriculture and agricultural processing reflects the fact that food and beverages will constitute the largest share of total household spending.", "zh": "农业及农产品加工业的预期增长反映了食品饮料将占据非洲家庭开支最主要份额的现实。", "index": 4730}
{"en": "Moreover, 60% of the world’s unused arable land is in Africa, which still contributes a meager share of worldwide agricultural exports.", "zh": "不仅如此，地球60%的闲置土地均位于非洲，即便如此，非洲仍然能为世界农业出口尽一份微薄之力。", "index": 4731}
{"en": "That means there is a lot of room for growth.", "zh": "这意味着非洲拥有巨大的增长潜力。", "index": 4732}
{"en": "And, because severe hunger still affects many African countries, investors can even contribute to the public good by investing in fertilizers, machinery, water and irrigation systems, and other areas of the agriculture sector.", "zh": "而且，由于严重饥荒仍影响许多非洲国家，投资者甚至可以通过投资肥料、机械、供水及灌溉系统以及农业部门的其他领域推动实现公共利益。", "index": 4733}
{"en": "As of 2012, the African countries with the highest agricultural value-added in terms of annual growth included Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania.", "zh": "截止2012年，农业增加值年增长率最高的非洲国家包括布基纳法索、埃塞俄比亚、尼日利亚、马里、莫桑比克、卢旺达和坦桑尼亚。", "index": 4734}
{"en": "In addition, Angola, Morocco, and South Africa now all have sizable markets, and have committed to expanding their agricultural sectors.", "zh": "不仅如此，安哥拉、摩洛哥和南非现在都拥有规模庞大的市场，并致力于扩大其农业部门的实力。", "index": 4735}
{"en": "According to the Harvard Business Review, Africa also has the potential to become “the world’s next great manufacturing center.”", "zh": "据哈佛商业评论报道，非洲同样具备成为“世界下一个大型制造中心的潜力 ” 。", "index": 4736}
{"en": "China is expected to lose from 85-100 million low-cost, labor-intensive manufacturing jobs by 2030, and Africa stands to capture many of them.", "zh": "截至2030年，中国预期将丧失8，500万到1亿个低成本、劳动密集型的就业岗位，而非洲将成为其中许多岗位的承接地。", "index": 4737}
{"en": "This helps to explain why manufacturing will be the second-largest sector in terms of business-to-business spending.", "zh": "这有助于说明企业对企业支出的第二大领域为什么是制造业。", "index": 4738}
{"en": "Another reason is that many of the manufacturing opportunities in Africa happen to be in globally competitive sectors such as automobiles and transport equipment, refined petroleum, computers, and office and industrial machinery.", "zh": "另一个原因是非洲许多制造业机遇恰恰来自于像汽车及运输设备、石油精炼、计算机、办公及工业机械等全球性竞争领域。", "index": 4739}
{"en": "South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria are already becoming promising places to invest in these areas.", "zh": "南非、埃及和尼日利亚已经成为投资上述领域的新兴之地。", "index": 4740}
{"en": "And investors will also be able to find high returns and favorable business environments in Ethiopia, Morocco, and Rwanda.", "zh": "投资者也能在埃塞俄比亚、摩洛哥和卢旺达找到高回报和有利的商业环境。", "index": 4741}
{"en": "Africa is the world’s last frontier market, and Western businesses need to start taking advantage of its tremendous potential, as Chinese firms already are.", "zh": "非洲是世界最后一块前沿市场，西方企业需要效仿中国，开始发掘其所拥有的巨大潜力。", "index": 4742}
{"en": "Doing business in Africa will also create sustainable jobs and advance the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals to eliminate poverty and hunger.", "zh": "在非洲开展业务还能在创造可持续就业机会的同时推动完成联合国消灭饥饿和贫困的可持续发展目标任务。", "index": 4743}
{"en": "And that, too, will be good for the bottom line.", "zh": "而这归根结底也是件好事。", "index": 4744}
{"en": "As the Business and Sustainable Development Commission has shown, pursuing the SDGs “could raise trillions in new market opportunities in ways that extend prosperity to all.”", "zh": "正如商业及可持续发展委员会所表明的那样，实现可持续发展目标“能够以一种令所有人都兴旺发达的方式开拓价值数万亿美元的全新市场机遇。 ”", "index": 4745}
{"en": "Strengthening African Science", "zh": "加强非洲的科学", "index": 4746}
{"en": "URBANA, ILLINOIS – In late March, Africa’s leading scientists, innovators, and policymakers met in Kigali, Rwanda, to brainstorm solutions to an increasingly pressing problem: the low quality of science on the continent.", "zh": "乌尔班纳，伊利诺伊州—3月底，非洲著名科学家、创新者和决策者齐聚卢旺达基加利，为一个日益紧迫的问题展开头脑风暴寻找解决方案：非洲低劣的科学质量。", "index": 4747}
{"en": "Any good leader knows that scientific discovery and innovation fuels progress, facilitates development, and can help tackle issues like food insecurity, water shortages, and climate change.", "zh": "优秀领导人都知道，科学发现和创新驱动进步、促进发展，还有助于解决粮食不安全、水短缺和气候变化等问题。", "index": 4748}
{"en": "And yet most African governments are failing to fund research and development adequately in their countries.", "zh": "但大部分非洲国家政府都没有为国内研究和开发提供足够的资金。", "index": 4749}
{"en": "According to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa spend, on average, just 0.5% of GDP on research and development.", "zh": "据联合国教科文组织统计局，撒哈拉以南非洲各国平均研发支出仅占GDP的0.5 % 。", "index": 4750}
{"en": "In the West, the share is closer to 3%.", "zh": "在西方，这一比例接近3 % 。", "index": 4751}
{"en": "This disparity underscores the development challenges that Africans face.", "zh": "这一差距构成了非洲所面临的发展挑战。", "index": 4752}
{"en": "Africa is home to 15% of the world’s population and 5% of its GDP, but accounts for a paltry 1.3% of total research spending.", "zh": "非洲人口占世界的15 % ， GDP占5 % ， 但研究总支出只占1.3 % 。", "index": 4753}
{"en": "Moreover, African inventors hold just 0.1% of the world’s patents, meaning that even when money is spent on science, innovation, and research, the findings rarely translate into solutions for the continent’s most immediate challenges.", "zh": "此外，非洲创新者只拥有世界专利的0.1 % ， 这意味着即使把钱用在了科学、创新和研究上，成果也很少能转化为解决非洲最紧迫挑战的方案。", "index": 4754}
{"en": "To be sure, these trends are not universal; some African governments are investing heavily in science-led innovation.", "zh": "平心而论，这些趋势并非放之非洲而皆准；一些非洲政府中金投资于科学驱动的创新。", "index": 4755}
{"en": "In South Africa, for example, authorities have pledged to double R&D spending by 2020 – to 1.5% of GDP.", "zh": "比如，在南非，当局承诺到2020年将研发支出提高一倍，至GDP的1.5 % 。", "index": 4756}
{"en": "This follows a 2016 commitment by African heads of state to increase science and technology budgets to at least 1% of GDP by 2025.", "zh": "在此之前，2016年非洲各国首脑承诺到2025年至少将科学技术预算提高到GDP的1 % 。", "index": 4757}
{"en": "A handful of countries – including Kenya, Rwanda, and Senegal – are working hard to reach this funding threshold.", "zh": "少数国家 — — 包括肯尼亚、卢旺达和塞内加尔 — — 正在努力达到这一拨款阈值。", "index": 4758}
{"en": "Africa also benefits from generous research-related aid and international support.", "zh": "非洲也从慷慨的研究相关援助和国际支持中获益。", "index": 4759}
{"en": "One of the top donors, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has invested more than $450 million in African science initiatives over the last decade.", "zh": "贡献最大的捐助者之一比尔和梅琳达·盖茨基金会在过去十年中位非洲科学项目投入了4.5亿多美元。", "index": 4760}
{"en": "Projects include a $306 million program to boost crop yields and a $62.5 million grant to improve health outcomes.", "zh": "这些项目包括一个3.06亿美元的作物增产计划和一笔6,250万美元的健康改善资金。", "index": 4761}
{"en": "These and other funding streams have helped African researchers develop drought-resistant crops, produce vaccines for infectious diseases like Ebola, and expand opportunities for science and technology education.", "zh": "这些和其他资金流帮助非洲研究者开发了抗旱作物，为埃博拉等传染病生产疫苗，增加了科学和技术教育的机会。", "index": 4762}
{"en": "Unfortunately, many African governments lack the resources to fund programs that could build on these gains.", "zh": "不幸的是，许多非洲政府缺少为可以在这些收益的基础上更进一步的项目提供资金的资源。", "index": 4763}
{"en": "Simply put, a new, more collaborative approach to African science is urgently needed.", "zh": "简言之，非洲科学急需更有合作精神的新方案。", "index": 4764}
{"en": "Africa’s leaders have pooled their science resources before.", "zh": "非洲领导人曾经集中过他们的科学资源。", "index": 4765}
{"en": "In 2003, the African Union and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development began implementing a continent-wide strategy “to develop and use science and technology for the socioeconomic transformation of the continent and its integration into the world economy.”", "zh": "2003年，非盟和非洲开发新合作计划（New Partnership for Africa’s Development）开始实施一项洲际战略 “开发和运用科学和技术推动非洲社会经济转型、促使其融入世界经济。", "index": 4766}
{"en": "It was an ambitious goal that yielded early results.", "zh": "”这是一个宏伟的目标，并已经产生了早期结果。", "index": 4767}
{"en": "Between 2005 and 2014, continent-wide spending on R&D increased, while research output more than doubled in many countries.", "zh": "2005—2014年，非洲研发支出实现增长，许多国家的研究产出不止翻番。", "index": 4768}
{"en": "Since then, however, progress has stalled.", "zh": "但此后进展陷入了停滞。", "index": 4769}
{"en": "The recent meeting in Rwanda, hosted by President Paul Kagame and organized by the Next Einstein Forum, was designed to help get the agenda back on track.", "zh": "最新的卢旺达会议由下一个爱因斯坦论坛（Next Einstein Forum）组织，总统卡加姆主持，旨在帮助该日程重回正轨。", "index": 4770}
{"en": "But summits are only part of the solution; governments must also commit to improving research quality, and they can start by focusing attention on three key areas.", "zh": "但峰会只是解决方案的一部分；政府还必须致力于改善研究质量，它们可以从关注三个关键领域开始。", "index": 4771}
{"en": "First, Africa’s leaders must engage with CEOs, philanthropists, and donors who understand the long-term value of investing in science.", "zh": "首先，非洲领导人必须与了解科学投资的长期价值的CEO、慈善家和捐赠者合作。", "index": 4772}
{"en": "Innovation is expensive, and seed money will be needed to help strengthen the continent’s scientific capacity.", "zh": "创新是昂贵的，需要种子基金帮助强化非洲的科学能力。", "index": 4773}
{"en": "Second, African universities and institutions should align their research agendas with national and regional goals.", "zh": "其次，非洲大学和机构应该理顺研究日程与国家和地区目标的关系。", "index": 4774}
{"en": "For example, given that one of Africa’s most pressing challenges is feeding its growing population, schools specializing in agricultural research should ensure that their work contributes to solutions.", "zh": "比如，非洲最紧迫的挑战是养活日益增长的人口，专注于农业研究的院校应该确保它们的工作有助于这一目标。", "index": 4775}
{"en": "Last but not least, countries should encourage entrepreneurship within research organizations.", "zh": "第三，各国应该鼓励研究组织内部的企业家精神。", "index": 4776}
{"en": "One way to do this is by establishing commercialization offices, which could help scientists bring their research to market.", "zh": "一个办法是建立商业化办公室，商业化办公室有助于科学家的研究面向市场。", "index": 4777}
{"en": "Scientists everywhere need help navigating bureaucracy when turning an idea into a commercial venture, and this process is particularly challenging in a region where R&D pipelines are in their infancy.", "zh": "各国科学家在将概念转化为商业项目时，都需要帮助应付官僚主义，而这一过程在研发渠道尚处在襁褓阶段的地区尤其具有挑战性。", "index": 4778}
{"en": "Boosting Africa’s scientific capabilities will require the continent’s leaders to do more than ask tough questions at summits; they must also allocate more funding and forge new partnerships.", "zh": "提高非洲的科学实力需要非洲领导人不仅仅要在峰会上提出尖锐的问题；他们还必须配置更多的资金，构建新的合作关系。", "index": 4779}
{"en": "To overcome Africa’s human development challenges, African governments must invest in the people who can overcome them.", "zh": "要克服非洲的人类发展挑战，非洲政府必须投资于能够克服这些挑战的人。", "index": 4780}
{"en": "The High Cost of Food Monopolies in Africa", "zh": "非洲粮食垄断的高昂代价", "index": 4781}
{"en": "LAGOS – In May, global food prices increased 1.2%, reaching their highest level since October 2017.", "zh": "拉各斯—5月，全球粮食价格上涨1.2 % ， 达到了2017年10月以来的最高水平。", "index": 4782}
{"en": "This upward trajectory is having a disproportionate impact in Africa, where the share of household income spent on food is also rising.", "zh": "这波涨势正在给非洲造成非常大的影响，家庭用于粮食的支出比例也节节攀升。", "index": 4783}
{"en": "To ensure food security, governments must work quickly to reverse these trends, and one place to start is by policing the producers who are feeding the frenzy.", "zh": "为了确保粮食安全，政府必须迅速行动起来扭转这些趋势，一个起点是整顿囤积居奇的生产商。", "index": 4784}
{"en": "According to data compiled by the World Economic Forum, four of the world’s top five countries in terms of food expenditure are in Africa.", "zh": "据世界经济论坛收集的数据，全世界粮食支出最高的五个国家有四个在非洲。", "index": 4785}
{"en": "Nigeria leads the list, with a staggering 56.4% of household income in 2015 spent on food, followed by Kenya (46.7%), Cameroon (45.6%), and Algeria (42.5%).", "zh": "尼日利亚高居榜首，2015年56.4%的家庭收入用在了食品上，其次是肯尼亚（46.7 % ） 、喀麦隆（45.6 % ） 和阿尔及利亚（42.5 % ） 。", "index": 4786}
{"en": "By comparison, consumers in the United States spend the least globally (6.4%), far less than people in emerging economies like Brazil (16%) and India (30%).", "zh": "相比而言，美国消费者的支出为全球最低（6.4 % ） ，远低于巴西 (16 % ) 和印度 (30 % ) 等新兴经济体。", "index": 4787}
{"en": "One reason for the distortion is the price of food relative to income.", "zh": "如此扭曲的一个原因是相对于收入的粮食价格。", "index": 4788}
{"en": "As Africa urbanizes, people are buying more imported semi- or fully processed foods, which cost more than locally produced foods.", "zh": "随着非洲日渐城市化，人们开始购买更多进口半加工或全加工食品，这些食品比本地生产的食品更贵。", "index": 4789}
{"en": "And in most countries, wages have not kept pace with inflation.", "zh": "而在大部分国家，工资赶不上通货膨胀。", "index": 4790}
{"en": "But the primary cause is poor public policy: African governments have failed to curb the power of agribusinesses and large food producers, a lack of oversight that has made local agriculture less competitive.", "zh": "但主要原因是拙劣的公共政策：非洲政府没有遏制农商企业和大型食品制造商的权力，缺乏监督导致本地农业竞争力低下。", "index": 4791}
{"en": "In turn, prices for most commodities have risen.", "zh": "反过来，大部分大宗商品价格节节上涨。", "index": 4792}
{"en": "The absence of antitrust laws, combined with weak consumer protection, means that in many countries, only two or three major companies control markets for items like salt, sugar, flour, milk, oil, and tea .", "zh": "反垄断法的缺位，加上消费者保护不足，导致在许多国家两三家大公司控制了盐、糖、面粉、奶、油和茶等东西的市场。", "index": 4793}
{"en": "The impact is most pronounced in African cities, where prices for white rice, frozen chicken, bread, butter, eggs, and even carbonated soft drinks are at least 24% higher than in other cities around the world.", "zh": "非洲城市所受到的影响最为突出，白米、冷冻鸡肉、面包、黄油、鸡蛋甚至碳酸饮料的价格要比世界其他城市至少高出24 % 。", "index": 4794}
{"en": "These prices hit consumers both directly and indirectly (owing to pass-through of higher input costs by food conglomerates and service providers).", "zh": "这些价格直接间接地影响着消费者（通过推高食品生产集团和服务提供商的投入品成本传导 ） 。", "index": 4795}
{"en": "The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has long argued that food security and fair pricing depends on markets that are free from monopolistic tendencies.", "zh": "联合国粮农组织一直强调，粮食安全和公平定价取决于市场不能走向垄断。", "index": 4796}
{"en": "The OECD concurs, and has frequently called on authorities to address “anti-competitive mergers, abuse of dominance, cartels and price fixing, vertical restraints, and exclusive practices” in the food sector.", "zh": "经合组织国家频繁要求当局解决粮食行业的“反竞争兼并、滥用主导地位、卡特尔和固定价格、纵向约束以及排斥行为”问题。", "index": 4797}
{"en": "And yet, in many African countries, this advice has rarely been heeded.", "zh": "但是，在许多非洲国家，这一建议很少有人会听。", "index": 4798}
{"en": "To be sure, this is not a new problem.", "zh": "平心而论，这并不是什么新问题。", "index": 4799}
{"en": "Between 1997 and 2004, for example, the FAO counted 122 allegations of “anti-competitive practices” in 23 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Violations included a “vertical monopoly” in the Malawi sugar sector, price fixing in Kenya’s fertilizer industry, and a “buyer cartel” in the Zimbabwean cotton industry.", "zh": "比如，1997—2004年间，粮农组织在23个撒哈拉以南非洲国家发起了122宗“反竞争行为”指控。 违法行为包括马拉维糖业的“纵向垄断 ” 、 肯尼亚化肥业的价格固定，以及津巴布韦棉花业的“买家卡特尔 ” 。", "index": 4800}
{"en": "And, despite the considerable attention such cases have received, the underlying problems persist.", "zh": "而尽管这些案件引起了广泛关注，其根本问题顽固依旧。", "index": 4801}
{"en": "According to the World Bank, more than 70% of African countries rank in the bottom half globally for efforts to protect “market-based competition.”", "zh": "据世界银行，超过70%的非洲国家在全球保护“基于市场的竞争”行为排行榜上位于后半部分。", "index": 4802}
{"en": "While 27 African countries and five regional blocs do have antitrust laws on the books, enforcement is rare.", "zh": "27个非洲国家和5个地区已经有了成文的反垄断法，但几乎没有执法可言。", "index": 4803}
{"en": "The remaining countries have no regulations at all and have made little progress in drafting them.", "zh": "其他国家根本没有反垄断规则，连起草工作都鲜有国家在推进。", "index": 4804}
{"en": "There is one notable exception: South Africa.", "zh": "南非是一个显著的例外。", "index": 4805}
{"en": "Since 1998, the country’s Competition Act has prohibited any company controlling at least 45% of the market from excluding other firms or seeking to exercise control over pricing.", "zh": "1998年以来，南非竞争法禁止任何公司通过排斥其他企业或寻求操纵价格控制45%或以上的市场份额。", "index": 4806}
{"en": "Violators face penalties of up to 10% of their earnings, and during the last two decades, some of the biggest companies in the country – including Tiger Brands, Pioneer Foods, and Sime Darby – have been penalized.", "zh": "违反者面临高达收益的10%的罚款，在过去二十年中，南非的一些公司巨头，如Tiger Brands、Pioneer Foods和森达美（Sime Darby ） ， 都被罚过款。", "index": 4807}
{"en": "As Tembinkosi Bonakele, head of South Africa’s Competition Commission, noted last year, the government is “determined to root out exploitation of consumers by cartels,” especially in the food industry.", "zh": "南非竞争委员会主席特姆宾柯西·博纳科勒（Tembinkosi Bonakele）在去年指出，政府“决心杜绝卡特尔剥削消费者的现象 ， ” 特别是在粮食行业。", "index": 4808}
{"en": "Other countries should follow South Africa’s lead.", "zh": "其他国家应该效仿南非的榜样。", "index": 4809}
{"en": "Companies and special-interest groups will always seek to benefit from the absence of regulation.", "zh": "公司和特殊利益集团永远不会停止寻求钻监管的空子获益。", "index": 4810}
{"en": "The need for reform is greatest in countries like Nigeria and Ghana, where food expenditures are high and food-industry pressure is most pronounced.", "zh": "尼日利亚和加纳等国家最需要改革，在这些国家，粮食支出比例畸高，粮食安全压力最大。", "index": 4811}
{"en": "Fortunately, there is growing recognition of the need to address these challenges.", "zh": "幸运的是，越来越多的人开始认识到必须解决这些挑战。", "index": 4812}
{"en": "Babatunde Irukera, Director General of the Consumer Protection Council in Nigeria, recently asserted that, “In a large vibrant and loyal market such as Nigeria, the absence of broad competition regulation is tragic.", "zh": "尼日利亚消费者保护委员会总干事巴巴吞德·伊鲁克拉（Babatunde Irukera）最近表示 ， “ 在尼日利亚这样的生机勃勃又忠诚的大市场，广泛的竞争监管缺位实属悲剧。", "index": 4813}
{"en": "Unregulated markets in competition context constitute the otherwise ‘legitimate’ vehicle for both financial and social extortion.”", "zh": "竞争环境中的不受监管的市场沦为金融和社会敲诈的‘合法’外衣。 ”", "index": 4814}
{"en": "Reducing the prices of staple food by even a modest 10% (far below the average premium cartels around the world charge) by tackling anticompetitive behavior in these sectors, or by reforming regulations that shield them from competition, could lift 270,000 people in Kenya, 200,000 in South Africa, and 20,000 in Zambia out of poverty.", "zh": "通过处置这些行业的反竞争行为，或通过改革阻止竞争的监管，从而降低主粮价格，哪怕只是区区10 % （ 远低于全球卡特尔所要求的的平均溢价 ） ， 都能让270,000肯尼亚人、200,000南非人、20,000津巴布韦人摆脱贫困。", "index": 4815}
{"en": "Such a policy would save households in these countries over $700 million (2015 US dollars) a year, with poor households gaining disproportionately more than rich ones.", "zh": "这一政策将为这些国家的家庭每年节省超过7亿美元（2015年美元 ） ， 贫穷家庭所得到的好处要远大于富裕家庭。", "index": 4816}
{"en": "Ultimately, it is the responsibility of political leaders to protect consumers from collusion and price-fixing.", "zh": "说到底，保护消费者免受勾结和价格固定影响是政治领导人的责任。", "index": 4817}
{"en": "There is no question that Africa’s businesses need space to innovate and grow, but their success should never come at the cost of someone else’s next meal.", "zh": "毫无疑问，非周期也需要通过创新实现增长的空间，但它们的成功决不能以某些人的下一顿饭为代价。", "index": 4818}
{"en": "The Cancer Threat to Africa’s Future", "zh": "非洲未来的癌症威胁", "index": 4819}
{"en": "CHICAGO – One of the most pressing public-health challenges in Africa today is also one of the least reported: cancer, a leading cause of death worldwide.", "zh": "芝加哥 — — 当今非洲最紧迫的公共卫生挑战之一也是报道最少的：那就是癌症，世界各地最主要的死亡原因。", "index": 4820}
{"en": "Every year, some 650,000 Africans are diagnosed with cancer, and more than a half-million die from the disease.", "zh": "每年都有约650,000非洲人被确诊患有癌症，并有超过50万人因这种疾病而死亡。", "index": 4821}
{"en": "Within the next five years, there could be more than one million cancer deaths annually in Africa, a surge in mortality that would make cancer one of the continent’s top killers.", "zh": "未来五年内，非洲可能每年都有超过100万人因癌症死亡，死亡率激增将使癌症成为非洲大陆最主要的致死疾病。", "index": 4822}
{"en": "Throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, tremendous progress has been made in combating deadly infectious diseases.", "zh": "在整个撒哈拉以南非洲地区，人们在打击致命传染病方面取得了重大的进步。", "index": 4823}
{"en": "In recent decades, international and local cooperation have reduced Africa’s malaria deaths by 60% , pushed polio to the brink of eradication, and extended the lives of millions of Africans infected with HIV/AIDS.", "zh": "近几十年来，国际和地方合作已成功将非洲的疟疾死亡人数降低了60 % 、 几乎完全根除了小儿麻痹症，并延长了数以百万计感染艾滋病毒/艾滋病的非洲人的生命。", "index": 4824}
{"en": "Unfortunately, similar gains have not been made in the fight against non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cancer.", "zh": "不幸的是，在抗击包括癌症在内的非传染性疾病（NCDs）的过程中并没有取得类似的进步。", "index": 4825}
{"en": "Today, cancer kills more people in developing countries than AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis combined.", "zh": "今天，癌症在发展中国家致死的人口数量比艾滋病、疟疾和肺结核加起来还要多。", "index": 4826}
{"en": "But, with Africa receiving only 5% of global funding for cancer prevention and control, the disease is outpacing efforts to contain it.", "zh": "但由于非洲仅获得全球癌症预防和控制资金的5 % ， 遏制癌症的努力根本赶不上这种疾病的蔓延速度。", "index": 4827}
{"en": "Just as the world united to help Africa beat infectious disease outbreaks, a similar collaborative approach is needed to halt the cancer crisis.", "zh": "正如全世界联合起来帮助非洲遏制传染病爆发一样，必须采取类似的手段来遏制这场癌症危机。", "index": 4828}
{"en": "Surviving cancer requires many things, but timely access to specialists, laboratories, and second opinions are among the most basic.", "zh": "癌症患者生存需要许多东西，但及时得到专家、实验室和补充诊疗意见却是最基本的。", "index": 4829}
{"en": "Yet, in much of Africa, a lack of affordable medications, and a dearth of trained doctors and nurses, means that patients rarely receive the care they need.", "zh": "但在非洲绝大部分地区，廉价的药品、训练有素的医生和护士都极为短缺，这意味着患者很少能够得到他们所需要的护理服务。", "index": 4830}
{"en": "On average, African countries have fewer than one trained pathologist for every million people, meaning that most diagnoses come too late for treatment.", "zh": "平均而言，非洲国家每百万人口仅有不到一位训练有素的病理学家，这意味着绝大多数人无法在癌症尚可治疗期间获得准确的诊断服务。", "index": 4831}
{"en": "According to University of Chicago oncologist Olufunmilayo Olopade, a diagnosis of cancer in Africa is “nearly always fatal.”", "zh": "按照芝加哥大学肿瘤学家Olufunmilayo Olopade的说法，非洲的癌症诊断“几乎总是致命的 ” 。", "index": 4832}
{"en": "Building health-care systems that are capable of managing infectious diseases, while also providing quality cancer care, requires a significant investment in time, money, and expertise.", "zh": "建设能够管理传染性疾病、同时也能提供优质癌症护理服务的医疗保健系统需要在时间、金钱和专业知识方面进行巨大的投入。", "index": 4833}
{"en": "Fortunately, Africa already has a head start.", "zh": "幸运的是，非洲已经有了一个不错的开头。", "index": 4834}
{"en": "Past initiatives – like the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and the World Bank’s East Africa Public Health Laboratory Networking Project – have greatly expanded the continent’s medical infrastructure.", "zh": "过去的各项计划 — — 如防治艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金、美国总统艾滋病紧急救济计划以及世界银行东非公共医疗实验室联网计划 — — 都已经极大拓展了非洲大陆的医疗基础设施建设。", "index": 4835}
{"en": "National efforts are also strengthening pharmaceutical supply chains, improving medical training, and increasing the quality of diagnostic networks.", "zh": "非洲各国也在强化药品供应链、改善医疗培训并提升诊断网络的服务质量。", "index": 4836}
{"en": "Still, Africans cannot face down this threat alone.", "zh": "但非洲人仍然无法独自面对这样的威胁。", "index": 4837}
{"en": "That is why the American Society for Clinical Pathology, where I work, is cooperating with other global health-care innovators to attack the region’s growing cancer crisis.", "zh": "我所在机构美国临床病理学会因此正在与其他全球医疗保健创新机构合作来遏制非洲地区癌症危机的蔓延势头。", "index": 4838}
{"en": "We have teamed up with the American Cancer Society (ACS) and the pharmaceutical company Novartis to support cancer treatment and testing efforts in four countries: Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda.", "zh": "我们已经与美国癌症协会（ACS）和诺华制药展开合作，支持埃塞俄比亚、卢旺达、坦桑尼亚和乌干达等四国的癌症治疗和检测工作。", "index": 4839}
{"en": "Together, we have brought immunohistochemistry, a key diagnostic tool, to seven regional laboratories, an effort we hope lead to more timely cancer diagnoses and greatly improve the quality of care.", "zh": "我们已经一起将重要诊断工具“免疫组织化学染色法”带到了7家地区实验室，我们希望这样可以更及时地作出癌症诊断并极大地改善护理质量。", "index": 4840}
{"en": "To complement these technical efforts, the ACS is also training African health-care professionals how to carry out biopsies and deliver chemotherapy.", "zh": "美国癌症协会还培训非洲专业医疗人士如何进行活检和化疗，以补充上面所提到的技术性工作。", "index": 4841}
{"en": "That initiative, funded by Novartis, is viewed as a pilot program that could expand to other regional countries.", "zh": "这项由诺华资助的计划被视为有可能向其他区域国家拓展的一项试点工作。", "index": 4842}
{"en": "Finally, our organizations are advocating for enhanced cancer-treatment guidelines in national health-care planning efforts, protocols that we believe are essential to improving health outcomes.", "zh": "最后，我所在机构正在倡导在国家医疗保健计划工作中强化癌症治疗的指导原则，我们认为这样的条款规定能在改善医疗效果的过程中发挥至关重要的作用。", "index": 4843}
{"en": "These initiatives are in conjunction with other undertakings, such as a joint ACS-Clinton Health Access Initiative program to broaden access to cancer medications.", "zh": "上述条款与美国癌症协会-克林顿联合健康计划相结合，以扩大癌症治疗药物的普及度。", "index": 4844}
{"en": "When the world took notice that infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS, polio, and malaria were ravaging Africa, action plans were drawn up and solutions were delivered.", "zh": "当世界各国意识到艾滋病毒/艾滋病、小儿麻痹症和疟疾等传染性疾病在非洲肆虐，我们制定了行动计划并积极付诸行动。", "index": 4845}
{"en": "Today, a similar global effort is needed to ensure that every African with a cancer diagnosis can get the treatment they need.", "zh": "今天，人们必须推进类似的全球工作，以确保每位被确诊患有癌症的非洲人都能得到所需的治疗服务。", "index": 4846}
{"en": "Now, as then, success depends on coordination among African governments, health-service providers, drug makers, and non-governmental organizations.", "zh": "现在和当时一样，非洲政府、医疗服务提供商、制药企业和非政府组织之间的合作决定了抗击癌症能否取得成功。", "index": 4847}
{"en": "There is no place on Earth that is immune from the dread of a cancer diagnosis; wherever the news is delivered, it is often devastating to recipients and their families.", "zh": "地球上没有哪个地方不对癌症诊断充满恐惧；无论哪里的患者得到消息，对接受者及其家庭来说会产生灾难性的后果。", "index": 4848}
{"en": "But geography should never be the deciding factor in patients’ fight to survive the disease.", "zh": "但地理位置永远不应成为患者与癌症斗争的决定性因素。", "index": 4849}
{"en": "Cancer has been Africa’s silent killer for far too long, and the global health community must no longer remain quiet in the face of this crisis.", "zh": "癌症作为非洲沉默的杀手已经太久，而面对这场危机全球医疗界绝对不应再保持沉默。", "index": 4850}
{"en": "Investing in Africa’s Educators", "zh": "投资非洲的教育者", "index": 4851}
{"en": "JOHANNESBURG – Improving education is a slow, arduous, long-term undertaking everywhere, and nowhere more so than in Africa, where tight economic constraints often prevent sustained investment in human capital.", "zh": "约翰内斯堡—教育的改善是一个缓慢、艰苦、长期的过程，不论在哪里都是如此，非洲更加如此。 经济的吃紧然常常让非洲无法持续投资于人力资本。", "index": 4852}
{"en": "Those who work in the education sector on the continent have to seek solutions that are faster, cheaper, and can be scaled up.", "zh": "非洲教育工作者必须找到更迅速、更廉价并且能够推广的解决方案。", "index": 4853}
{"en": "Too often, though, expedient approaches prove shortsighted, and fail to engage local leaders who hold the keys to economic and social progress.", "zh": "但是，权宜之计往往相当短视，无法让座位经济和社会进步的关键的地方领导者参与进来。", "index": 4854}
{"en": "Too often, grassroots-level voices, reflecting firsthand experience addressing their communities’ problems, are ignored.", "zh": "草根的声音往往被忽视，而这些声音又往往反映了解决发声者所在社区的问题的第一手经验。", "index": 4855}
{"en": "When global leaders gather in Hamburg this week for the G20 summit, the new G20-Africa Partnership will take center stage.", "zh": "本周，全球领导人将在汉堡举行G20峰会，新的G20-非洲合作计划将成为中心议题。", "index": 4856}
{"en": "But those committed to helping Africa should focus squarely on the nuts and bolts of aid and development – and that means investing in local leadership.", "zh": "但致力于帮助非洲的仁人志士应该将注意力对准援助与发展的要害 — — 而这意味着投资于地方领导力。", "index": 4857}
{"en": "Sadly, the best-funded aid organizations in Africa are often run by Westerners, or by Africans who have extensive ties to the West.", "zh": "悲哀的是，在非洲，资金充裕的援助组织往往由西方人负责管理，而不是由于西方关系密切的非洲人负责管理。", "index": 4858}
{"en": "I recently spoke to several entrepreneurs who shared anecdotal evidence that organizations in Africa with a Western co-founder raise more than twice the funds of African-run organizations.", "zh": "我最近从几位企业家那里获知，有西方联合创始人的非洲组织，能够筹集到比由非洲人负责管理的组织多一倍的资金。", "index": 4859}
{"en": "This financial prejudice is visible elsewhere, too, and it is perpetuating the dearth of local talent.", "zh": "这一金融偏见随处可见，导致地方人才永久性流失。", "index": 4860}
{"en": "The pro-Western bias should worry everyone working to build better communities for our children.", "zh": "对于任何致力于为儿童创造更好的社区的人来说，亲西方的偏见值得忧虑。", "index": 4861}
{"en": "When it comes to addressing social issues – whether it’s educational inequity, poverty, or discrimination – the most committed advocates are those who have first-hand knowledge of the problem they seek to solve.", "zh": "在解决社会问题时 — — 不管是教育不平等、贫困还是歧视 — — 最着力的支持者总是那些对需要解决的问题具备第一手经验的人。", "index": 4862}
{"en": "Personal experience is the best way to create agents for change, because it underpins people’s long-term, personal investment in dismantling systems that exacerbate inequity and injustice.", "zh": "个人经验是最好的变化催化剂，因为它能够在一个不平等和不公平不断加剧的分崩离析的系统中支持人们的长期个人投资。", "index": 4863}
{"en": "What would it look like if the leaders overhauling such systems were cultivated from the very communities that needed them most?", "zh": "如果修补这些系统的领导者正是从最需要他们的社区中长大，情况会怎么样？", "index": 4864}
{"en": "Some organizations are answering that question already.", "zh": "一些组织已经开始回答这个问题了。", "index": 4865}
{"en": "More than 12,000 people have applied to join Teach For Nigeria, a national organization that recruits, trains, and places young teachers in high-need schools.", "zh": "12,000多人申请加入尼日利亚教育计划（Teach For Nigeria ） 。 这是一个全国性组织，招募和培训年轻教师，然后分配到急需他们的学校。", "index": 4866}
{"en": "The program, designed as a fellowship, will choose fewer than 60 of Nigeria’s brightest university graduates and professionals, not only to develop excellent classroom teachers, but also to empower the next generation of social entrepreneurs committed to tackling inequity and deeply connected to local efforts already underway in communities across their country.", "zh": "该计划是一个奖学金项目，它将遴选不多于60名尼日利亚最优秀的大学毕业生和专业人士，不但要培养优秀的讲课教师，也要给致力于解决不平等性，并与已经在全国社区蓬勃开展的地方措施关系密切的下一代社会创业家赋权。", "index": 4867}
{"en": "After their two-year teaching commitment, which begins in September, these up-and-coming leaders will join a worldwide movement of over 55,000 people who have completed the fellowship in over 40 countries, including the 30 fellows already hard at work next door at Teach for Ghana.", "zh": "在经过从9月份开始为期两年的教学承诺后，这些成长起来的领导者将加入一场包括55,000多人的全球性运动，这些人来自40多个国家，都完成了类似的奖学金项目，包括加纳教育计划（Teach for Ghana）所培养的、现在已经投入到艰苦工作中去的30位奖学金获得者。", "index": 4868}
{"en": "We call this powerful grouping of change-agents “collective leadership,” and we believe it is the only way to ensure positive, lasting change.", "zh": "我们将这个强大的变化推动者群体成为“集体领导者 ” ， 我们相信这是确保持续的积极变化的唯一方法。", "index": 4869}
{"en": "Inadequate investment in locally led initiatives is one of the two ways in which we fail to ensure that those who are most affected by inequity have pathways to address it.", "zh": "地方领导的计划的投资不足是我们无法保证受不平等性影响最大的群体能够找到办法纠正这个问题的两大原因之一。", "index": 4870}
{"en": "The second is the failure to invest in children.", "zh": "另一个原因是我们没有投资于儿童。", "index": 4871}
{"en": "In Uganda, 70% of children do not complete primary school.", "zh": "在乌干达，70%的儿童无法完成小学学业。", "index": 4872}
{"en": "Basic education is the foundation for our lifelong ability to analyze information, present ideas and opinions, and challenge the world around us.", "zh": "基础教育是我们分析信息、形成思想和观点、挑战周边世界的终身能力的基础。", "index": 4873}
{"en": "And yet, in too many African communities, we are failing to invest in laying those foundations.", "zh": "但是，在太多非洲社区，我们并没有致力于投资这些基础。", "index": 4874}
{"en": "Across the continent, educational attainment is sharply stratified: while 82% of children from the wealthiest families complete primary school, only 28% of children from the poorest families do.", "zh": "在整个非洲，入学率分层明显：82% 的富裕家庭儿童可以完成小学教育，而最贫穷家庭儿童的这一比例只有28 % 。", "index": 4875}
{"en": "If the future of the continent is to be shaped by, or with, those who have most acutely experienced its challenges, programs like Teach for Nigeria and Teach for Ghana are essential.", "zh": "如果非洲的未来将由被这一挑战伤害最深的人所决定或影响，那么尼日利亚教育计划和加纳教育计划等项目就是至关重要的。", "index": 4876}
{"en": "Imagine what could be accomplished if efforts to place local recruits in low-income schools were expanded.", "zh": "想象一下，如果能够将本地招募的教师分配到低收入学校的措施得到推广，会发生生么。", "index": 4877}
{"en": "Imagine how many opportunities to address the challenges facing children and families could be created, potentially reaching hundreds of thousands of children who are also inspired and encouraged to think critically and resolve the problems affecting the world around them.", "zh": "想象一下，有多少解决儿童和家庭所面临的挑战的机会会被创造出来，并有可能覆盖数十万有志向并被孤立进行批判性思考和解决周边世界的问题的儿童。", "index": 4878}
{"en": "Some argue that education is meaningless if graduates cannot find work; in fact, job creation in Africa will be a major topic of discussion at the G20 summit.", "zh": "有人指出，如果毕业了找不到工作，那么教育就毫无意义；事实上，非洲就业创造也将是G20峰会的一个重大议题。", "index": 4879}
{"en": "But while investment in business development and job creation is crucial for economic vitality and growth, it won’t happen without an educated workforce.", "zh": "但是，尽管企业发展和就业创造投资对于经济活力和增长至关重要，但如果没有受过教育的劳动力，一切都是空谈。", "index": 4880}
{"en": "A robust job market presupposes a sufficient number of skilled workers to fill available jobs.", "zh": "强健的就业市场首先需要有足够多的高技能工人填补现成的工作岗位。", "index": 4881}
{"en": "But in Sub-Saharan Africa, only 58% of children complete primary school.", "zh": "但在撒哈拉以南非洲，只有58% 的儿童能够从小学毕业。", "index": 4882}
{"en": "This is why, when G20 leaders discuss new economic development strategies for Africa, they should focus on investment in education.", "zh": "正因如此，G20领导人在讨论新的非洲经济发展战略时，应该关注教育投资。", "index": 4883}
{"en": "But, more important, they should seek to ensure that resources make it to those who rely on local leadership and innovation.", "zh": "但更重要的是，他们应该确保资源用于依靠地方领导力和创新的人。", "index": 4884}
{"en": "Sustainable Development Goal 4 – to ensure equitable and inclusive education for all by 2030 – is attainable, but only if solutions come from the ground up, which means from the Africans most committed to them.", "zh": "可持续发展目标4 — — 到2030年确保平等包容的教育 — — 是可以实现的，但解决方案必须要“接地气 ” ， 即要接入最渴望教育的非洲人民这个“地气 ” 。", "index": 4885}
{"en": "Empowering the Other Half of Africa’s Economy", "zh": "赋权非洲经济的另一半", "index": 4886}
{"en": "JOHANNESBURG – Julius Nyerere, the founding president of Tanzania, once said that “unity” will not make Africa rich, but “it can make it difficult for Africa and the African peoples to be disregarded and humiliated.”", "zh": "约翰内斯堡—坦桑尼亚建国总统朱利乌斯·尼雷尔曾说 ， “ 联合”无法让非洲变富，但“可以让非洲和非洲人民不再那么容易被轻视、被屈辱。", "index": 4887}
{"en": "But, two decades later, Africa remains divided along a key fault line: gender.", "zh": "”但是，二十年过去了，仍然有一条断层线将非洲一分为二，那就是性别。", "index": 4888}
{"en": "To realize Nyerere’s vision of a strong, dignified continent, Africa needs a new era of liberation, one that is fueled by the economic empowerment of the continent’s women.", "zh": "要想实现尼雷尔的让非洲成为一个强大的、有尊严的大洲的愿景，非洲需要一个自由的新时代，为非洲妇女经济赋权能够为这个时代增添动力。", "index": 4889}
{"en": "Although projections by the consultancy McKinsey anticipate that by 2040, Africa will have the world’s largest labor force, with more than 1.1 billion people of working age, more than 60% of Africa’s current population still survive on less than $2 a day.", "zh": "麦肯锡咨询公司预测，到2040年，非洲将拥有全世界最大规模的劳动力，工作年龄人扣将超11亿人，但在非洲当前人口中，超过60%的人生活水平仍然低于每天2美元。", "index": 4890}
{"en": "It is obvious that while many Africans have benefited from political emancipation – the legacy of Nyerere’s generation – poverty remains a significant obstacle.", "zh": "显然，尽管许多非洲人从政治解放中获益 — — 这是尼雷尔这一代人留下的遗产 — — 但贫困仍然是一个巨大的障碍。", "index": 4891}
{"en": "Unleashing the employment potential of African women is the best way to overcome it.", "zh": "释放非洲妇女的就业潜力，是克服这一障碍的最佳办法。", "index": 4892}
{"en": "As it stands, Africa’s women continue to be underrepresented in key industries and executive roles, owing to workplace discrimination and patriarchal expectations at home.", "zh": "目前，非洲妇女在重要行业和管理岗位上仍然鲜有代表人物，造成这一现象的原因是职场歧视和父权家庭。", "index": 4893}
{"en": "Unless barriers to entering the formal economy are removed and women are presented with options that enable them to realize their full potential, Africa’s socioeconomic development will continue to be impeded.", "zh": "除非能够取消阻碍妇女进入正式经济的壁垒，让妇女拥有充分实现她们的潜力的选择，否则非洲社会经济发展将继续饱受抑制。", "index": 4894}
{"en": "But while women are essential to the continent’s progress, they are still too often regarded as being secondary.", "zh": "但是，尽管妇女对于非洲的进步至关重要，她们仍然常被视为二等公民。", "index": 4895}
{"en": "Women must therefore claim their right to sit where decisions are made, and to shape the policies, plans, and strategies that will affect their lives and the lives of Africans for generations to come.", "zh": "因此，妇女必须主张她们参与决策的权利，主张她们参与影响她们以及未来非洲人民生活的政策、计划和战略的权利。", "index": 4896}
{"en": "Studies have shown that if more women had access to male-dominated occupations in Africa, worker productivity would rise by as much as 25%.", "zh": "研究表明，如果更多的非洲妇女能够获得男性主宰的职位，劳动生产率将提高多达 25 % 。", "index": 4897}
{"en": "That would be good for the overall economy, but also for women in general, as it would open up new avenues for social empowerment.", "zh": "这对于总体经济来说是一个好消息，对一般妇女来说也是好消息，因为这会打开新的社会赋权之门。", "index": 4898}
{"en": "When women participate in the job market and engage actively in business or political decision-making, patriarchal power dynamics shift, elevating the social status of women.", "zh": "如果妇女能够进入就业市场，积极参与商业或政治决策，父权社会的动态就会发生改变，提高妇女的社会地位。", "index": 4899}
{"en": "Economic equality also challenges accepted beliefs, and dispels harmful myths that perpetuate narrow definitions of gender norms.", "zh": "经济平等也在挑战现有的信念，消除让狭隘的性别规范大行其道的有害的传说。", "index": 4900}
{"en": "In other words, bringing more women into the workplace leads to an emancipation of mindset – in men and women alike.", "zh": "换句话说，让更多妇女进入职场，能够带来解放思维 — — 不管是对男性还是对女性。", "index": 4901}
{"en": "What Nyerere so eloquently said of Africa as a whole is no less true for its women: unity is the key to realizing our potential.", "zh": "尼雷尔对于非洲的雄辩之辞，对于非洲妇女同样成立：联合是实现我们的潜力的关键。", "index": 4902}
{"en": "When we come together as generators of wealth, it becomes impossible for us to go unrecognized for our economic contributions and marginalized in our entrepreneurial endeavours.", "zh": "当我们拧成一股绳，成为财富的创造者，我们的经济贡献就不会得不到承认，我们在我们的创业努力中也不会被边缘化。", "index": 4903}
{"en": "At the Graça Machel Trust, we are joining together with civil-society actors, the private sector, and governments across the continent to lead a new economic liberation movement for women.", "zh": "在格拉夏·马谢尔信托，我们与全非洲的公民社会行动方、私人部门和政府合作，领导着一场妇女经济解放运动。", "index": 4904}
{"en": "Divided, we are weak, but together, Africa’s women have the ability to confront and overcome the barriers that have kept us from full participation in our respective economies.", "zh": "分则弱，但如果我们能够合在一起，非洲妇女就有能力面对和克服让我们无法充分参与到各自经济中的障碍。", "index": 4905}
{"en": "There is power in networks.", "zh": "网络存在力量。", "index": 4906}
{"en": "My organization’s approach to economic advancement is to establish and strengthen informal and official networks, through which women can, in time, increase their participation and visibility in key sectors.", "zh": "我的组织对于经济进步的方针就是建立和强化非正式的和官方的网络，通过这些网络，妇女能够及时提高她们在重要部门的参与度和辨识度（visibility ） 。", "index": 4907}
{"en": "That is why we are launching the “Women Advancing Africa” initiative, which is part of our ongoing effort to amplify the voices of Africa’s underrepresented and to establish a pan-African women’s movement, in which women can come together to transform the continent.", "zh": "因此，我们启动了“妇女推动非洲 ” （ Women Advancing Africa）计划，这是我们强化没有赢得足够代表的群体的声音，以及建立一个让妇女联合起来改变非洲的泛非洲妇女运动的努力的一部分。", "index": 4908}
{"en": "The inaugural Women Advancing Africa Forum will take place this week in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and will convene more than 250 women leaders from across the continent.", "zh": "妇女推动非洲论坛将于本周在坦桑尼亚达累斯萨拉姆正式起航，届时将有来自非洲各地的250多位妇女领袖与会。", "index": 4909}
{"en": "Under the overarching theme of “Driving Social and Economic Transformation,” the Forum will focus on three strategic goals: promoting financial inclusion, increasing market access, and driving social change.", "zh": "论坛的总主题是“推动社会和经济转型 ” ， 将关注三个战略性目标：促进金融包容、增加市场准入，一级推动社会变革。", "index": 4910}
{"en": "We aim to emerge from the Forum with a common agenda for our participation as full economic actors.", "zh": "我们的目标是通过论坛形成一个共同日程，让我们成为全面的经济参与者。", "index": 4911}
{"en": "It has been just over 20 years since Nyerere encouraged us to work toward African unity.", "zh": "尼雷尔鼓励我们致力于非洲的联合不过20年。", "index": 4912}
{"en": "Today, Africa’s women are helping to shape the policies and practices that will bring about economic and social liberation in their respective countries.", "zh": "如今，非洲妇女正在影响能给各自国家带来经济和社会解放的政策和实践。", "index": 4913}
{"en": "We have some way to go before African unity is fully realized.", "zh": "充分实现非洲联合还有很长的路要走。", "index": 4914}
{"en": "But enabling women to become full partners in Africa’s economic future, is among the best ways to ensure that we succeed.", "zh": "但让妇女成为非洲经济未来的全面伙伴，则是确保我们能够成功的最佳办法之一。", "index": 4915}
{"en": "Capitalizing on Africa’s Youth Dividend", "zh": "利用非洲的年轻人红利", "index": 4916}
{"en": "TORONTO – When South African university students took to the streets in 2016 as part of the “Fees Must Fall” protest movement, the “decolonization of the curriculum” was among the movement’s chief concerns.", "zh": "多伦多—2016年，南非大学生纷纷走上街头，这是“必须降学费”运动的一部分。 当时 ， “ 课程的去殖民地化”是这场运动的核心诉求之一。", "index": 4917}
{"en": "It was a pivotal moment in South Africa’s history, as young people rose to demand quality and accessible education.", "zh": "这场运动也是南非的一个历史转折点，年轻人开始站起来要求高品质的普及教育。", "index": 4918}
{"en": "But a crucial question was missing from the debate over fees and curricular relevance: how can changes to higher education empower Africa’s youth to drive the continent’s economic transformation?", "zh": "但这场关于学费和课程的争论遗漏了一个关键问题：更高的教育程度如何让非洲青年赢得力量，推动非洲经济转型？", "index": 4919}
{"en": "For Africa, the question is no longer “if” students are taught, but “what.”", "zh": "对非洲来说，学生受到教育已经不是“是否”的问题，而是学到“什么”的问题。", "index": 4920}
{"en": "Unfortunately, while access to education has improved significantly in recent decades, school curricula have changed little since the colonial era, when secondary education was an elite privilege designed to advance the careers of a select few.", "zh": "不幸的是，尽管教育普及在近几十年来有了重大改善，但学校课程并没有较之殖民地时代有多少变化。 在殖民地时代，中等教育是一种精英特权，是专为一小撮人的职业生涯而设计的。", "index": 4921}
{"en": "Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) programs have also suffered from neglect.", "zh": "技术和在职教育和培训（TVET）也因为不受重视而蒙受损失。", "index": 4922}
{"en": "Today, these initiatives are marked by outdated courses and rote learning methods that fail to prepare young people for the demands of the twenty-first-century job market.", "zh": "如今，这些项目课程陈旧，学习方法呆板，无法让年轻人适应二十一世纪就业市场的需求。", "index": 4923}
{"en": "The trouble goes beyond traditional components of the curriculum, like math, science, and language. There is also a deficiency in critical “soft” skills, such as communication, teamwork, and problem solving.", "zh": "问题不仅在于课程的传统内容，如数学、科学和语言上，也在于缺乏重要的“软”技能，如沟通、团队合作和解决问题。", "index": 4924}
{"en": "Though neglected, it is these skills that enable young people to become adaptable, lifelong learners.", "zh": "尽管这些技能不受重视，但它们能让年轻人成为适应能力卓著的终身学习者。", "index": 4925}
{"en": "The mastery of soft skills correlates to improved outcomes in school, work, and life.", "zh": "掌握软技能与学业、工作和生活结果的改善之间存在相关性。", "index": 4926}
{"en": "Yet, until recently, training in soft skills has not been integrated into formal education systems on the continent.", "zh": "但是，直到最近，软技能的训练仍然没有纳入非洲的正规教育体系中。", "index": 4927}
{"en": "Fortunately, that is changing.", "zh": "幸运的是，情况正在起变化。", "index": 4928}
{"en": "Across the continent, secondary schools and TVET systems are transforming themselves to prepare Africa’s young minds with the skills they need to make the transition from school to employment, and to become more engaged citizens.", "zh": "在整个非洲，中等学校和TVET系统正在实现转型，准备好用完成学生到工作者和参与度更高的公民的转变所必须的技能，来武装非洲的年轻头脑。", "index": 4929}
{"en": "These adjustments are coming at a critical time for Africa, where many countries are experiencing a demographic dividend of declining fertility rates and rising productivity.", "zh": "这些调整的到来正逢非洲的关键时刻。 许多非洲国家正在经历生育率下降、生产率提高的人口红利。", "index": 4930}
{"en": "In particular, these changes mean more opportunity for young people as they prepare to enter the job market.", "zh": "特别是，这些变化意味着年轻人在准备进入就业市场时可以获得更多机会。", "index": 4931}
{"en": "But to succeed on the job, young people must have the skills and education that a modern economy requires.", "zh": "但要取得职场成功，年轻人必须具备现代经济所要求的技能和教育。", "index": 4932}
{"en": "At The MasterCard Foundation, where I manage education and learning programs, we’ve put together a blueprint – called Skills at Scale – to help African educators revitalize their curricula to capitalize more effectively on the economic potential of youth.", "zh": "在万事达卡基金会，我负责管理教育和学习项目。 我们制定了一个蓝图 — — 称为《大规模技能 》 （ Skills at Scale ） — —以帮助非洲教育者通过课程设置更有效地发挥年轻人的经济潜力。", "index": 4933}
{"en": "One of the continent’s most successful efforts already underway is the USAID-funded Akazi Kanoze Youth Livelihoods Project, designed by the Education Development Center (EDC) in Boston.", "zh": "目前，非洲正在实施的最成功的项目之一是美国国际开发署赞助的阿卡兹·卡诺泽年轻人生计计划（Akazi Kanoze Youth Livelihoods Project ） ， 该计划由波士顿的教育发展中心（Education Development Center ，EDC）制定。", "index": 4934}
{"en": "Akazi Kanoze epitomizes how a small initiative can catalyze wider education-sector reform, by emphasizing links to local employers that provide access to entry-level jobs, internships, and apprenticeships.", "zh": "阿卡兹·卡诺泽计划充分说明了一个小规模的项目如何通过强调提供入门岗位、实习和学徒机会的本地雇主，带来大规模的教育改革。", "index": 4935}
{"en": "The focus on personal development, interpersonal communication, and leadership training has ensured that students are well equipped to enter the labor market upon graduation.", "zh": "其注重个人发展、人际沟通和领导力培训的做法确保了学生充分做好了一毕业就能进入劳动力市场的准备。", "index": 4936}
{"en": "Rwanda’s Ministry of Education has already moved to integrate elements of the program in TVETs across the country.", "zh": "卢旺达教育部已经准备将该计划的药物纳入到全国TVWT项目中。", "index": 4937}
{"en": "The government recently integrated Akazi Kanoze’s approach in the national curriculum to equip secondary and TVET students with the soft skills they require to succeed.", "zh": "卢旺达政府最近在全国课程体系中纳入了阿卡兹·卡诺泽计划的方法，让中等学校和TVET学生具备取得成功所需要的软技能。", "index": 4938}
{"en": "National exams in the 2018-2019 academic year will also reflect the new competency-based curriculum.", "zh": "2018—2019学年国家统考也将体现新的基于能力的课程。", "index": 4939}
{"en": "Since 2009, Akazi Kanoze trainings have prepared more than 37,000 youth for work, with more than 65% of participants in the initial round of training employed six months after graduation.", "zh": "2009年以来，阿卡兹·卡诺泽计划培训了37,000多位年轻人，其中65%的首轮培训参与者在毕业后六个月内找到了工作。", "index": 4940}
{"en": "Based on the success of integrating soft skills into the curriculum in Rwanda, The MasterCard Foundation and EDC will launch a similar program in Senegal later this year.", "zh": "基于在卢旺达取得了将软技能纳入课程的成功，万事达卡基金会和EDC将在今年晚些时候在塞内加尔启动一项类似的计划。", "index": 4941}
{"en": "Case studies from Skills at Scale highlight six components to a successful skills-training initiative.", "zh": "来自《大规模技能》的案例研究强调了成功的技能培训计划的六个要素。", "index": 4942}
{"en": "These include an enabling policy environment, in which the government is supportive and sets clear goals for education sector reform; vocal backing for these changes from strong political champions; wide stakeholder engagement, especially in the design and implementation phases of the reform; decentralization of authority for education; flexibility on the part of donors; and the ability to measure the changes’ impact on youth employment and entrepreneurship.", "zh": "它们包括有利的政策环境（政府持支持台独，并为教育部门改革制定明确的目标 ） 、 政治要人对这些改变的口头支持、相关利益方的广泛参与（特别是在改革的设计和实施阶段 ） 、 教育权力的分散化、出资者的灵活性，以及衡量改变对年轻人就业和企业家精神的影响的能力。", "index": 4943}
{"en": "Change is not without challenge.", "zh": "改变不是没有挑战的。", "index": 4944}
{"en": "Adapting models of skills training to vastly different education systems across Africa will take time.", "zh": "调整技能培训模式依适应非洲多变的教育体系需要时间。", "index": 4945}
{"en": "It will also be difficult to ensure that intensive training models reach all young people, including those no longer in school.", "zh": "确保密集培训模式触及所有年轻人，包括早已不在上学的人也将十分困难。", "index": 4946}
{"en": "Experience in Rwanda shows that curriculum redesign requires close cooperation with education and workforce development authorities, as well as government officials, teachers, and school administrators.", "zh": "卢旺达的经验表明，课程的重新设计需要与教育和劳工发展当局的紧密合作，政府官员、教师和学校管理者也要参与其中。", "index": 4947}
{"en": "New curriculum content also requires developing new teaching and learning materials.", "zh": "新的课程内容还要求开发新的教学和学习材料。", "index": 4948}
{"en": "Achieving scale also requires a markedly different approach to training teachers than is currently on offer in most African school systems.", "zh": "实现规模还需要采取与大部分非洲学校体系现行做法截然不同的方法去培训老师。", "index": 4949}
{"en": "Trainings must go beyond traditional, one-off approaches, by providing ongoing teacher support.", "zh": "培训必须超越传统的一次性方法，而要持续提供教师支持。", "index": 4950}
{"en": "New pedagogies also require continual supervision and practice, especially early on.", "zh": "新的教学法还需要洲级监督和实践，特别是在早期。", "index": 4951}
{"en": "The old “cascade” model of teacher training simply won’t work.", "zh": "旧的教师培训“阶梯 ” （ cascade）模式已经完全失去了效果。", "index": 4952}
{"en": "African governments, with support from the international community, can help students’ transition from school to work by relying on a curriculum that elevates the importance of soft skills.", "zh": "在国际社会的帮助下，非洲政府可以通过强调软技能的重要性的课程，帮助学生从校园到工作岗位的转型。", "index": 4953}
{"en": "If done well, these changes can ensure young people are positioned to drive Africa’s future prosperity.", "zh": "如果顺利的话，这些变化能够确保年轻人推动非洲的未来繁荣。", "index": 4954}
{"en": "Africans deserve a forward-looking education system, not one that remains stuck in the past.", "zh": "非洲人民理应获得具有前瞻性，而不是陷在过去难以自拔的教育体系。", "index": 4955}
{"en": "As students in South Africa demonstrated last year, the continent’s youth will settle for nothing less.", "zh": "南非学生在去年已经证明，只有这样才能令非洲年轻人满足。", "index": 4956}
{"en": "A Big Bond for Africa", "zh": "非洲大债券", "index": 4957}
{"en": "LAGOS – The countries of Sub-Saharan Africa have reached a critical juncture.", "zh": "拉各斯—撒哈拉以南非洲诸国走到了关键时刻。", "index": 4958}
{"en": "Strained by a collapse in commodity prices and China’s economic slowdown, the region’s growth slipped to 3.4% in 2015 – nearly 50% lower than the average rate over the previous 15 years.", "zh": "受困于大宗商品价格暴跌和中国经济减速，2015年该地区增长率下滑到3.4 % — —比此前15年的平均水平低了近50 % 。", "index": 4959}
{"en": "The estimated growth rate for 2016 is lower than the population growth rate of about 2%, implying a per capita contraction in GDP.", "zh": "2016年预计增长率更是低于2%左右的人口增长率，这意味着人均GDP将有所下降。", "index": 4960}
{"en": "Sustained economic growth is essential to maintain progress on reducing poverty, infant mortality, disease, and malnutrition.", "zh": "持续的经济增长对于保持降低贫困、婴儿死亡率、疾病和营养不良等方面的进步至关重要。", "index": 4961}
{"en": "It is also the only way to create sufficient good jobs for Africa’s burgeoning youth population – the fastest growing in the world.", "zh": "保持经济增长也是为不断膨胀的年轻人口创造足够的优质岗位的唯一办法 — — 非洲年轻人口增长率为世界之最。", "index": 4962}
{"en": "As Gerd Müller, Germany’s development minister, noted at a recent press conference, “If the youth of Africa can’t find work or a future in their own countries, it won’t be hundreds of thousands, but millions that make their way to Europe.”", "zh": "德国发展部长戈尔德·穆勒（Gerd Müller）在最近的新闻发布会上指出 ， “ 如果非洲年轻人不能在祖国找到工作和未来，就会有数百万计，而不是几万或几十万人想方设法来到欧洲。 ”", "index": 4963}
{"en": "One way to sustain growth and create jobs would be to collaborate on planning and implementing a massive increase in infrastructure investment across Africa.", "zh": "保持增长、创造就业的一个办法是在整个非洲共同规划和实施大规模增加基础设施投资。", "index": 4964}
{"en": "Public infrastructure is particularly important.", "zh": "公共基础设施尤其重要。", "index": 4965}
{"en": "This includes highways, bridges, and railways linking rural producers in landlocked countries to Africa’s urban consumers and external markets; mass transit and Internet infrastructure to accommodate greater commercial activity; and electricity transmission lines integrating privately financed power plants and grids.", "zh": "它们包括高速公路、桥梁和铁路，将内陆国的农业生产者与非洲城市消费者和外部市场连接起来；包括大规模运输和互联网基础设施，以容纳更多的商业活动；也包括输电线路，将私人融资的发电厂和电网融合在一起。", "index": 4966}
{"en": "Major regional projects are also needed to knit together Sub-Saharan Africa’s many tiny economies.", "zh": "撒哈拉以南非洲的许多微型经济体也需要通过大型地区项目联系在一起。", "index": 4967}
{"en": "This is the only way to create the economies of scale needed to increase the export potential of African agriculture and industry, as well as to reduce domestic prices of food and manufactured goods.", "zh": "这是创造规模经济的唯一办法，而国模经济则是提升非洲农业和工业出口潜力，以及降低食品和制造品的国内价格的必要条件。", "index": 4968}
{"en": "While governments in Africa are spending more on public infrastructure themselves, outside finance is still required, especially for regional projects, which are rarely a top priority for national governments.", "zh": "尽管非洲各国政府正在增加自身的公共基础设施支出，但仍然需要外部融资，特别是对于很少成为国家政府重中之重的地区项目。", "index": 4969}
{"en": "Yet aid from Africa’s traditionally generous foreign donors, including the United States and Europe, is now set to shrink, owing to political and economic constraints.", "zh": "但传统的慷慨出资者，包括美国和欧洲，目前都因为政治和经济约束而准备缩减援助。", "index": 4970}
{"en": "But there may be a solution that helps Africa recover its growth in a way that Western leaders and their constituents find acceptable.", "zh": "但也许存在一种办法，可以帮助非洲增长恢复，并且被西方领导人和他们的选民所接受。", "index": 4971}
{"en": "We call it the “Big Bond” – a strategy for leveraging foreign aid funds in international capital markets to generate financing for massive infrastructure investment.", "zh": "我们称之为“大债券 ” — —利用外国援助资金作为国际资本市场杠杆，为大规模基础设施投资筹集融资。", "index": 4972}
{"en": "Specifically, donors would borrow against future aid flows in capital markets.", "zh": "具体而言，出资者可以在资本市场中，根据未来援助流贷款。", "index": 4973}
{"en": "That way, they could exploit current low interest rates at home, as they generate new resources.", "zh": "如此，它们可以利用目前本国的低利率来开源。", "index": 4974}
{"en": "With 30-year US Treasury rates of about 3%, donors would have to securitize only about $5 billion to raise $100 billion.", "zh": "30年美国国债利率大约在3 % ， 出资者只需要证券化大约50亿美元，就能筹集1,000亿美元。", "index": 4975}
{"en": "That money could come from the $35 billion in annual official development assistance (ODA) to Africa (which totals about $50 billion) that takes the form of pure grants.", "zh": "这笔钱可以来自每年对非洲的纯捐赠形式的350亿官方发展援助（ODA，总量大约为500亿美元 ） 。", "index": 4976}
{"en": "Donors would pass on the interest cost to African countries, reducing their own fiscal costs.", "zh": "出资者可以将利息成本砖家给非洲国家，降低它们自身的财政负担。", "index": 4977}
{"en": "For African countries, the terms would be better than those provided by Eurobonds.", "zh": "对非洲国家来说，条件也要优于欧元债券所提供的条件。", "index": 4978}
{"en": "In fact, as audacious as it may sound, passing on the interest costs to recipient countries could actually bolster their debt sustainability.", "zh": "事实上，尽管这听上去有些冒险，将利息成本转嫁给受资国实际上可以加强它们的债务可持续性。", "index": 4979}
{"en": "According to a study of eight countries by the African Development Bank’s Policy Innovation Lab, a 3% interest rate in US dollar terms would be lower than the marginal cost of commercial borrowings undertaken by several African countries over the last five years.", "zh": "据非洲开发银行政策创新实验室（Policy Innovation Lab）的一项针对八个国家的研究，3%的美元利率将比一些非洲国家在过去五年中进行的商业借贷的边际成本更低。", "index": 4980}
{"en": "Moreover, far longer maturities and grace periods, compared to market finance, would ease growing pressure on foreign-exchange reserves.", "zh": "此外，与市场融资相比远远更长的期限和宽限期将缓解对外汇储备的压力。", "index": 4981}
{"en": "Frontloading aid in this way is not new.", "zh": "这种形式的前置援助并非新事物。", "index": 4982}
{"en": "Doing so in the early 2000s to finance vaccines saved millions of lives in the developing world.", "zh": "21世纪初，以这种方式进行的疫苗融资拯救了数百万发展中国家的生命。", "index": 4983}
{"en": "Big Bond resources, managed by the African Development Bank, could be used to help guarantee financing for major regional infrastructure projects that have long been stuck on the back burner, such as the East Africa Railway connecting Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi, and a highway stretching from Nigeria to Côte d’Ivoire.", "zh": "在非洲开发银行的管理下，大债券资源可用于保证长期无法得到重点照顾的大型地区基础设施项目的融资，如连接坦桑尼亚、卢旺达和布隆迪的东非铁路以及从尼日利亚通往科特迪瓦的高速公路。", "index": 4984}
{"en": "Such projects could also be co-financed by private investors.", "zh": "这些项目也可以与私人投资者合作共同融资。", "index": 4985}
{"en": "Moreover, the Big Bond could help to reinvigorate the relationship between donors and African countries.", "zh": "此外，大债券有助于重振出资者和非洲国家之间的关系。", "index": 4986}
{"en": "And, as it supports investments with important country-level benefits, it could serve as an incentive for African countries to pursue reforms that increase their absorptive capacity, in terms of choosing and executing public infrastructure investments.", "zh": "此外，由于它支持能带来重要的国家层面收益的投资，因此可以成为非洲国家实施改革的激励，提高它们的吸收能力 — — 如选择和执行公共基础设施投资。", "index": 4987}
{"en": "The Big Bond approach represents a much-needed update to the ODA framework – one that supports higher and more sustainable growth in recipient countries, while lowering the burden on donor countries.", "zh": "大债券方针是代表着ODA框架所急需的一个升级方向 — — 它能支持受资国更高、更可持续的增长，同时减轻出资国的负担。", "index": 4988}
{"en": "At a time when aid is under political pressure, perhaps such a bold approach to maximizing the efficiency of donor resources is exactly what the world needs.", "zh": "如今，援助饱受政治压力，或许这一大胆的最大化援助资源效率的方针正是全世界所需要的。", "index": 4989}
{"en": "Accelerating Africa’s Energy Transition", "zh": "加快非洲能源转型", "index": 4990}
{"en": "PARIS – For much of Africa, the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner forms of energy is seen as an environmental imperative.", "zh": "巴黎—在非洲大部，从化石燃料向更清洁的能源形式的转型被视为一项环境当务之急。", "index": 4991}
{"en": "With fossil fuels comprising a majority – as high as 70% in some cases – of the energy mix, the situation on the continent is indeed ecologically dire.", "zh": "化石燃料在一些地区占能源构成的大多数 — — 高达70 % — —非洲的形势确实非常不利于生态。", "index": 4992}
{"en": "But Africa’s energy transition is economically urgent as well.", "zh": "但从经济上说，非洲也迫切需要能源转型。", "index": 4993}
{"en": "Each year, oil subsidies consume 1.5% of the continent’s GDP – roughly $50 billion.", "zh": "非洲每年的石油补贴高达500亿美元左右，相当于全洲GDP的1.5 % 。", "index": 4994}
{"en": "That is enough money to provide solar power to some 300 million people.", "zh": "这笔钱足以为3亿人提供太阳能。", "index": 4995}
{"en": "If the continent could rebalance its energy portfolio, moving away from hydrocarbons slowly, those subsidies could be reallocated in ways that would yield both environmental and economic benefits.", "zh": "如果非洲能够实现能源组合再平衡，逐渐摆脱碳氢化合物，那么这些补贴就能转作其他用途，产生环境和经济效益。", "index": 4996}
{"en": "Today, neither oil exporters nor importers are adequately insulated from price shocks.", "zh": "如今，石油出口国和进口国都无法避免受到价格冲击的影响。", "index": 4997}
{"en": "When oil prices declined rapidly in 2015, for example, Africa’s energy importers spent less on oil, while exporting countries suffered financially.", "zh": "2015年，比如，石油价格迅速下跌，非洲能源进口国的石油支出有所下降，而出口国则蒙受经济损失。", "index": 4998}
{"en": "When prices rebounded, the relationship switched: energy-exporting countries’ revenues inched up, while importing countries struggled to maintain consumption levels.", "zh": "当结果反弹时，关系正好相反，能源出口国收入增加，而进口国难以维持消费水平。", "index": 4999}
{"en": "This is a needless cycle.", "zh": "这是一个毫无必要的循环。", "index": 5000}
{"en": "Integrating cleaner power into national energy systems would not only raise local capacities; it would also free up hydrocarbons for export.", "zh": "将更清洁的电力纳入国家能源体系不但能够提高地方产能；还能释放更多碳氢化合物用于出口。", "index": 5001}
{"en": "The resulting revenue could then be invested into new forms of greener power.", "zh": "由此获得的收入可以投资于新型绿色电力。", "index": 5002}
{"en": "Such a transition, which would require cooperation with the oil sector, promises to boost socioeconomic progress.", "zh": "这一转型需要石油部门的合作，有望对社会经济进步起到刺激作用。", "index": 5003}
{"en": "Among the biggest benefits would be the electrification of areas that, under current distribution systems, are literally in the dark.", "zh": "收益最大的某些地区的电气化。 在这些地区，以目前的配电系统，可以说是还生活在黑暗时代。", "index": 5004}
{"en": "Today, just 30% of Africa has access to reliable electricity.", "zh": "如今只有30%的非洲地区能够获得可靠电力。", "index": 5005}
{"en": "But, with a total capacity estimated at around ten terawatts, installed solar capacity in Africa could broaden access dramatically.", "zh": "但非洲建成太阳能装机容量据估计达到了十万亿瓦，可以大大扩大电力的普及。", "index": 5006}
{"en": "In fact, according to some estimates, the increase in solar generation by 2030 could range from 15 to 62 gigawatts.", "zh": "事实上，据某些估算，到2030年，太阳能发电量可以提高15到62十亿瓦。", "index": 5007}
{"en": "Fossil fuels are not destined to be phased out anytime soon, but an energy mix that included a significant increase in solar power would have major economic advantages for Africa, especially in areas where agriculture is the largest economic sector.", "zh": "化石燃料无法在短时间内退出，但如果能源组合中的太阳能比重能够显著提高，将给非洲带来的巨大的经济优势，特别是在农业是最重要的经济部门的地区。", "index": 5008}
{"en": "Electrifying agricultural areas would facilitate the storage and transportation of farmed products, improve food security, and increase farmers’ earning capacity.", "zh": "电气化农业区能够便利农作物的储存和 运输，改善粮食安全，提高农民的收入能力。", "index": 5009}
{"en": "In the drive to rebalance Africa’s energy mix, the continent maintains one crucial advantage over developed economies: a clean slate.", "zh": "在实现能源组合的再平衡的过程中，非洲拥有一个相对于发达经济体的重要优势：非洲是一块白板。", "index": 5010}
{"en": "The relative absence of legacy investments is the principal reason why green power is Africa’s best energy option.", "zh": "历史包袱相对较小是使绿色电力成为非洲最佳能源选择的主要原因。", "index": 5011}
{"en": "Although every country must balance its own energy needs, reliance on renewable sources, and solar power in particular, is the most cost-efficient strategy for fostering rapid economic development throughout the continent.", "zh": "尽管每个国家都必须平衡自身的能源需求，但依靠可再生资源（特别是太阳能 ） ， 对于促进全非洲快速经济发展来说是性价比最高的策略。", "index": 5012}
{"en": "Evidence of this potential can be found in the few photovoltaic power plants that have begun operating in Africa.", "zh": "这一潜力有多大？ 从非洲已经开始运行的少数光伏发电厂可见一斑。", "index": 5013}
{"en": "For example, the Senergy 2 solar plant in Senegal sells electricity to the Senegalese power utility at a price that lowers the cost of the energy mix by 50%.", "zh": "比如，塞内加尔的Senergy 2太阳能电站向塞内加尔电网出售的电价能让能源总成本下降50 % 。", "index": 5014}
{"en": "Similar solar solutions are being implemented by African telecoms to electrify communication towers.", "zh": "类似的太阳能方案也被非洲电信公司用于给通讯塔供电。", "index": 5015}
{"en": "The best way to accelerate the transition from hydrocarbons to greener forms of energy would be to redirect a portion of national oil subsidies to renewables.", "zh": "加快从碳氢化合物到绿色能源的转型的最佳办法是将一部分国家石油补贴用于可再生能源。", "index": 5016}
{"en": "This would create stronger incentives to reduce fossil-fuel consumption, while encouraging investment and growth in green-energy output.", "zh": "这将带来更强的激励去降低化石燃料消费，同时鼓励绿色能源产出的投资和增长。", "index": 5017}
{"en": "For Africa’s rural regions, moreover, such policies would help bring communities out of darkness and lead to the installation of other critical infrastructure that economic growth requires.", "zh": "此外，对非洲农村地区来说，这类政策还有助于让社区摆脱黑暗，建造其他经济增长所需要的重要基础设施。", "index": 5018}
{"en": "But while renewables hold the key to Africa’s long-term prosperity, the continent’s transition to cleaner power should not lead to an immediate, full-scale repudiation of hydrocarbons.", "zh": "但尽管可再生能源是非洲长期繁荣的关键，非洲向清洁电力的转型也不应该立刻一刀切地否定碳氢化合物。", "index": 5019}
{"en": "The oil sector will still have an important role to play.", "zh": "石油部门仍将扮演重要的角色。", "index": 5020}
{"en": "The industry’s experience on the continent will be needed to navigate the energy transformation.", "zh": "非洲需要石油业的经验来完成能源转型。", "index": 5021}
{"en": "And, because fossil fuels will remain part of the continent’s energy mix, the oil sector must be encouraged to clean up its own act.", "zh": "而由于化石燃料仍然是非洲能源组合的一部分，因此也必须鼓励石油业向清洁化方向发展。", "index": 5022}
{"en": "This may sound like an impossible alliance.", "zh": "这听上去像是一个不可能的联盟。", "index": 5023}
{"en": "But as policymakers across the continent seek to secure adequate supplies of clean energy to ensure rapid, inclusive economic growth and environmental sustainability, they are likely to find that there is no alternative.", "zh": "但在全非洲的决策者寻找确保清洁能源的充足供给，以保证高速、包容的经济增长和环境可持续性之际，他们也许会发现除此之外别无选择。", "index": 5024}
{"en": "Cooperation between old and new energy industries may be the only engine that is capable of powering Africa forward.", "zh": "新旧能源业的合作可能是能够推动非洲向前的唯一引擎。", "index": 5025}
{"en": "Africa’s Vaccination Test", "zh": "非洲的疫苗考验", "index": 5026}
{"en": "BOSTON – In February in Addis Ababa, African health ministers signed a widely celebrated declaration of their commitment to keeping immunization at the forefront of efforts to save the continent’s children from death and disease.", "zh": "波士顿—在2月的亚的斯亚贝巴，非洲各国卫生部长签署了一份广受欢迎的宣言，承诺将免疫作为拯救非洲儿童免遭死亡和疾病的措施的核心。", "index": 5027}
{"en": "Fulfilling that commitment will be no easy feat.", "zh": "兑现这一承诺绝不容易。", "index": 5028}
{"en": "Immunization is not just a health issue; it is also an economic challenge.", "zh": "免疫不仅是一个卫生问题，也是一个经济挑战。", "index": 5029}
{"en": "The case for vaccination is strong.", "zh": "支持疫苗的理由很充分。", "index": 5030}
{"en": "Globally, an estimated 2-3 million child deaths and 600,000 adult deaths are prevented annually through immunization.", "zh": "全球而言，每年有约200-300万儿童死亡和60万成人死亡通过免疫得以预防。", "index": 5031}
{"en": "Moreover, immunization is considered one of the most cost-effective public-health interventions for reducing child morbidity, mortality, and disability.", "zh": "此外，免疫被认为是性价比最高的降低儿童患病、死亡和残疾的公共卫生干预措施。", "index": 5032}
{"en": "A recent study estimates that every dollar spent on vaccination will save $16 in costs of illnesses averted.", "zh": "一项最新研究估算，花在疫苗上的每一美元可以节约16美元的疾病预防成本。", "index": 5033}
{"en": "Accounting for the value individuals place on longer and healthier lives, net returns on investments in immunization soar to some 44 times the cost.", "zh": "考虑到个人对更长的寿命和更健康的生活的重视，免疫投资的净回报高达成本的44倍。", "index": 5034}
{"en": "And net returns exceed costs for all vaccines.", "zh": "并且净回报超过所有疫苗的成本。", "index": 5035}
{"en": "Significant progress has been made.", "zh": "我们已经取得了长足进步。", "index": 5036}
{"en": "In 2014, 86% of children were immunized against diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis, compared to less than 5% in 1974.", "zh": "2014年，86%的儿童接受了白喉，破伤风，百日咳免疫，而1974年还不到5 % 。", "index": 5037}
{"en": "And there have been extraordinary advances in the number and kinds of vaccines that are available.", "zh": "在可用疫苗的数量和种类方面也取得了重大突破。", "index": 5038}
{"en": "Yet, worldwide, an estimated 18.7 million infants are not being reached by routine immunization services.", "zh": "但是，全球而言，仍有约1,870万婴儿不能获得常规免疫。", "index": 5039}
{"en": "The problem, of course, is access.", "zh": "当然，问题在于普及。", "index": 5040}
{"en": "Detailed analysis of immunization reveals significant disparities within and across countries.", "zh": "非洲各国的详细免疫分析表明，各国国内和各国之间存在巨大差异。", "index": 5041}
{"en": "More than 60% of the non-immunized infants live in just ten countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Uganda, and South Africa.", "zh": "超过60%的未免疫婴儿生活在十个国家：民主刚果（DRC ） 、 埃塞俄比亚、印度、印度尼西亚、伊拉克、尼日利亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、乌干达和南非。", "index": 5042}
{"en": "Routine immunization coverage remains particularly low in Africa; indeed, it has stagnated over the last three years, against a backdrop of weak and under-resourced health systems.", "zh": "非洲常规免疫覆盖率仍然非常低；事实上，该覆盖率在过去三年保持停滞，原因是卫生体系薄弱、资源不足。", "index": 5043}
{"en": "As a result, one in five African children still do not receive lifesaving vaccination.", "zh": "结果，非洲五分之一的儿童仍得不到救命的疫苗。", "index": 5044}
{"en": "In 2014, an estimated 42% of all global deaths from measles were in Africa.", "zh": "2014年，大约42%的全球麻疹致死病例发生在非洲。", "index": 5045}
{"en": "Most of Africa’s under-immunized children live in Nigeria, Ethiopia, the DRC, South Sudan, and Guinea.", "zh": "大部分免疫不足的非洲儿童生活在尼日利亚、埃塞俄比亚、民主刚果、南非、埃塞俄比亚和几内亚。", "index": 5046}
{"en": "Poor people, those living in rural areas, and families with lower education levels comprise the majority of those who are not reached.", "zh": "穷人、农村人口和教育层次较低家庭占未得到免疫覆盖儿童的大部分。", "index": 5047}
{"en": "Clearly, money is a leading factor shaping immunization outcomes.", "zh": "显然，钱是决定免疫结果的首要因素。", "index": 5048}
{"en": "Beyond inadequately financed health systems, which remain weak and inefficient, especially in rural areas, African countries face challenges in affording new, more expensive vaccines.", "zh": "除了资金不足、依然薄弱和低效的卫生体系（特别是在农村地区 ） ， 非洲国家还面临无力承担更加昂贵的新疫苗的挑战。", "index": 5049}
{"en": "New vaccines should be enabling us to save more lives.", "zh": "新疫苗应该让我们得以拯救更多声明。", "index": 5050}
{"en": "Yet Médecins Sans Frontières estimates that the introduction of new vaccines made it 68 times more expensive to vaccinate a child in 2014 than in 2001 in most African countries.", "zh": "但无国界医生组织估计，引入新疫苗导致大部分非洲国家2014年接种一名儿童的成本比2001年增加了68倍。", "index": 5051}
{"en": "Another study showed that in 2001, the total cost of the original set of six World Health Organization-recommended vaccines was less than one dollar.", "zh": "另一项研究表明，2001年世界卫生组织最初推荐的六种疫苗总成本不到一美元。", "index": 5052}
{"en": "In 2014, the number of WHO-recommended vaccines had risen to 11 – and the cost had reached about $21 for boys and $35 for girls.", "zh": "2014年，世卫组织推荐的疫苗种类增加到11种 — — 成本也高达男孩约21美元，女孩约35美元。", "index": 5053}
{"en": "The added costs of delivery, currently estimated at about $25 per child, bring the total cost of fully immunizing a child today to $50-60.", "zh": "如今，打疫苗的新增成本 — — 目前大约为每名儿童25美元 — — 让一名儿童获得充分免疫的总成本达到了50—60美元。", "index": 5054}
{"en": "That same study found that, in many low- and middle-income countries, immunization budgets are currently insufficient to sustain vaccination programs, much less incorporate the new costlier vaccines.", "zh": "同一项研究表明，在许多中低收入国家，目前的免疫预算不足以维持疫苗项目，更不用说纳入新的昂贵疫苗了。", "index": 5055}
{"en": "As several health ministers pointed out in Addis Ababa, high vaccine prices force poor countries’ governments to make tough choices about which deadly diseases they can afford to prevent.", "zh": "一些国家的卫生部长在亚的斯亚贝巴指出，高昂的疫苗价格迫使穷国政府需要作出承担预防哪些致命疾病的成本的艰难选择。", "index": 5056}
{"en": "For some countries, the situation is about to get worse, as Gavi, the international group which has helped to finance the dramatic global expansion of new vaccines, phases out support for countries deemed to have “graduated” from assistance.", "zh": "对一些国家来说，情况可能进一步恶化。 帮助融资支持新疫苗的大幅全球扩张的国际组织Gavi对于其认为已从援助“毕业”的国家逐渐收回支持。", "index": 5057}
{"en": "Without eligibility for the lower prices obtained by Gavi, many of these countries may not be able to afford newer vaccines.", "zh": "许多失去了获得Gavi的低价的国家可能无法承担更新的疫苗。", "index": 5058}
{"en": "In order to cope with this challenge, African political leaders have committed to invest in the continent’s capacity to develop and produce its own vaccines.", "zh": "为了应对这一挑战，非洲政治领导人已承诺投资建设非洲开发和生产自己的疫苗的能力。", "index": 5059}
{"en": "But this is a long-term strategy that will require coordinated regional investment planning, market development, and stronger regulatory capabilities.", "zh": "单这一长期战略需要互相协调的地区投资规划、市场开发和更强的监管能力。", "index": 5060}
{"en": "In the short to medium term, African countries would do well to look into the power of collective bargaining to strike better deals for needed vaccines.", "zh": "在短期和中期，非洲国家最好着眼于集体讨价还价力量，为需要的疫苗争取更好的合同。", "index": 5061}
{"en": "While Africa can and should do more to improve vaccination, the global community also has a responsibility to make a concerted effort to bring down vaccine costs.", "zh": "非洲可以也应该为改善疫苗做出更多，单全球社会也有责任共同努力降低疫苗成本。", "index": 5062}
{"en": "The recently announced reduction in the price of pneumococcal vaccine is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough.", "zh": "最新宣布的降低肺炎球菌疫苗价格的决定是迈向正确方向的一步，但仍不足够。", "index": 5063}
{"en": "Without collective action, equitable and sustained access to immunization in Africa will remain a major problem – and children’s lives will continue to be lost.", "zh": "如果不采取集体行动，平等且持续地为非洲提供免疫仍将是一个重大问题 — — 儿童的生命也将继续流失。", "index": 5064}
{"en": "Africa’s Avoidable AIDS Crisis", "zh": "可以避免的非洲艾滋病危机", "index": 5065}
{"en": "NEW YORK – At Uganda’s largest AIDS clinic, I recently witnessed a remarkable celebration of life. The performers were a troupe of young African singers, drummers and dancers, ranging in age from roughly eight to 28.", "zh": "纽约 — —", "index": 5066}
{"en": "“This is a land,” they sang,", "zh": "最近，我在乌干达最大的艾滋病医院目睹了一场盛大的生命礼赞。 表演者是一群非洲年轻人，有歌手、鼓手和舞者，年龄从8岁至28岁不等。", "index": 5067}
{"en": "“Where beautiful people", "zh": "“这片土地上生活着美丽的人民 ， ” 他们唱道，", "index": 5068}
{"en": "Laugh and dance in harmony.", "zh": "“他们微笑，他们舞蹈，一切是那么和谐。", "index": 5069}
{"en": "Africa.", "zh": "“非洲。", "index": 5070}
{"en": "O Africa.”", "zh": "哦，非洲。 ”", "index": 5071}
{"en": "And, indeed, these young people laughed and danced not only in harmony but with a joie de vivre that lit up their faces and filled us all with happiness.", "zh": "而事实上，这些年轻人的笑容和舞蹈不仅和谐，而且带有一种生存之乐，使他们脸上放出光彩，也使我们所有人充满欢乐。", "index": 5072}
{"en": "Listening, it was hard to imagine that they could easily be dead – and would be, if not for this clinic.", "zh": "听吧，很难想象死亡离他们近在咫尺 — — 而如果没有这座医院的话，他们也许早已离开人世了。", "index": 5073}
{"en": "Each of those splendid performers is living with HIV.", "zh": "这些出色的表演者都是艾滋病病毒（HIV）携带者。", "index": 5074}
{"en": "Some arrived at the clinic so ill that they could scarcely walk.", "zh": "其中一些人来到这家医院的时候已经病得无法走路了。", "index": 5075}
{"en": "Others showed few symptoms but, having tested positive, came to be treated.", "zh": "其他人来的时候虽然没有什么症状，但检查均呈阳性。", "index": 5076}
{"en": "They were mothers and fathers, sisters and brothers, children and grandparents.", "zh": "他们中有的是父母亲，有的是兄弟姐妹，有的是祖孙。", "index": 5077}
{"en": "All were alive and healthy for one reason only: the Joint Clinical Research Center in Kampala, and the drugs that it provides them.", "zh": "他们能够活下来，完全是因为位于坎帕拉的这家联合临床研究中心及其提供的药物。", "index": 5078}
{"en": "Uganda was the epicenter of the AIDS epidemic. There the scourge began in earnest; there (as elsewhere in Africa) it exacts its highest toll.", "zh": "乌干达是艾滋病流行的中心地带，是艾滋病最先爆发的地方，也是（和非洲其他地区一样）艾滋病发病率最高的地方。", "index": 5079}
{"en": "Yet Uganda is also a success story.", "zh": "但乌干达在防治艾滋病方面做的很好。", "index": 5080}
{"en": "A decade ago, fewer than 10,000 people were taking the new generation of antiretroviral drugs that suppress the disease and offer the promise of a normal life.", "zh": "十年前，只有不到10 000人能够获得新一代艾滋病特效药抗逆转录酶病毒药物从而转危为安。", "index": 5081}
{"en": "Today, that figure is 200,000, thanks in large measure to generous support from the United States (under its PEPFAR program) and the Global Fund in Geneva.", "zh": "今天，这一数字达到了200 000，这离不开美国（通过其PEPFAR项目）和日内瓦全球基金的慷慨支持。", "index": 5082}
{"en": "We have seen similarly encouraging progress elsewhere.", "zh": "其他地方也能看见类似的可喜进展。", "index": 5083}
{"en": "Botswana, among others, has invested heavily to offer universal treatment, and now is well on its way to ensuring that no baby is born with HIV – a reality in developed countries, but not so in Africa, where 400,000 children are born with the disease each year.", "zh": "其中，博茨瓦纳投入重金建立了全民医疗，正在朝着消灭艾滋病婴儿的目标大踏步前进 — — 在发达国家，这一目标早已实现，但在非洲，每年仍有400 000婴儿生来就带有艾滋病。", "index": 5084}
{"en": "South Africa, with the largest number of people living with HIV, has spent nearly $1 billion over the past year in an ambitious counseling and testing campaign to roll back the epidemic.", "zh": "HIV携带人口数量最多的南非去年花费了近10亿美元用于艾滋病咨询和检查项目，以此来对其进行控制。", "index": 5085}
{"en": "But there is a new and growing danger that these advances might not be sustained.", "zh": "但一个新的威胁已经出现并在日益严重，使得这些进步有可能无法持续。", "index": 5086}
{"en": "Peter Mugyenyi, who runs the Joint Clinical Research Center, told me that part of the problem is the sheer weight of numbers.", "zh": "联合临床研究中心主任彼得·莫缘依（Peter Mugyenyi）告诉我，问题的一部分是数字的分量太轻。", "index": 5087}
{"en": "In Uganda, only about half of those with HIV/AIDS are being treated.", "zh": "在乌干达，只有一半的艾滋病患者/HIV携带者获得了医治。", "index": 5088}
{"en": "Meanwhile, money for treatment is drying up.", "zh": "同时，医疗资金正在枯竭。", "index": 5089}
{"en": "Because of the global recession, some international donors are threatening to cap their financial support.", "zh": "由于全球衰退，一些国际赞助者警告将对财务支持进行限制。", "index": 5090}
{"en": "Countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Kenya, as well as Uganda, are requesting assistance for emergency drug supplies.", "zh": "马拉维、津巴布韦、肯尼亚和乌干达等国家正在要求紧急药物供给援助。", "index": 5091}
{"en": "In Kampala, Dr. Mugyenyi has begun placing new patients on a waiting list.", "zh": "在坎帕拉，莫缘依医生已经开始将新的求医者纳入候诊名单中。", "index": 5092}
{"en": "As many as seven million Africans who should be getting treatment for HIV are not.", "zh": "多达700万本应获得HIV治疗的非洲人没能获得治疗。", "index": 5093}
{"en": "Worldwide, the number is about 10 million.", "zh": "而全球高达1 000万人。", "index": 5094}
{"en": "Compounding the problem: donors have also been shifting their focus from AIDS to other diseases, because there is a sense that more lives can be saved more cheaply.", "zh": "雪上加霜的是，赞助者现在开始转向其他疾病，因为他们感觉这样可以用更少的钱救更多的人。", "index": 5095}
{"en": "At a time when we should be scaling up to meet the AIDS challenge, we are dialing back.", "zh": "眼下正是一鼓作气击败艾滋病的时候，我们却自己打了退堂鼓。", "index": 5096}
{"en": "In our global war on AIDS, the international community is on the verge of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.", "zh": "在对艾滋病的斗争中，国际社会正在将唾手可得的胜利拱手让出。", "index": 5097}
{"en": "Those who rallied to the fight are alarmed. They fear that the impressive gains of the last decade will be lost.", "zh": "这使得仍在战斗的斗士感到十分不安，担忧过去十年来取得的骄人战绩将付之东流。", "index": 5098}
{"en": "“We are sitting on a time bomb,” Dr. Mugyenyi told me.", "zh": "“我们正坐在定时炸弹上 ， ” 莫缘依医生告诉我。", "index": 5099}
{"en": "Every day, he is forced into moral choices that no one should have to make.", "zh": "每天，他都面临着本可避免的良心选择。", "index": 5100}
{"en": "How do you choose to treat a young girl but not her little brother?", "zh": "你怎么忍心治疗一个小女孩而放弃她的弟弟？", "index": 5101}
{"en": "How do you turn away a pregnant mother, sitting with her children, crying for help?", "zh": "怎么忍心放弃和孩子坐在一起、乞求帮助的怀孕母亲？", "index": 5102}
{"en": "Surely we can do better.", "zh": "毫无疑问，我们可以做得更多。", "index": 5103}
{"en": "In Kampala, I promised my young friends that I would do everything I could to help.", "zh": "在坎帕拉，我向我的年轻朋友们承诺将尽我所能提供帮助。", "index": 5104}
{"en": "In Washington recently, the United Nations rolled out an action plan that should dramatically accelerate progress on maternal and child health, including HIV.", "zh": "最近，联合国在华盛顿推出了一项旨在大幅加强母婴健康的行动计划， 其中就包括了艾滋病防治。", "index": 5105}
{"en": "At the International AIDS Conference in Vienna, in July, I hope that the international community will rally around UNAIDS’ launch of Treatment 2.0 — the next generation of HIV treatment, which must be more affordable, more effective, and accessible to all.", "zh": "7月份在维也纳举行的国际艾滋病大会上，我希望国际社会能够支持联合国艾滋病规划署（UNAIDS）的新一代HIV治疗计划 — — Treatment 2.0。 这一计划价格更低、效率更高，而且可以覆盖每一个人。", "index": 5106}
{"en": "As chair of this year’s replenishment of the Global Fund, I urge all donors to see to it that countries such as Uganda get the support they need, so that Dr. Mugyenyi and other front-line soldiers in the fight against AIDS need not make those difficult choices.", "zh": "作为今年全球基金峰会的主席，我敦促所有赞助人都能着眼于让乌干达这样的国家获得所需的支持，着眼于让莫缘依医生及其他艾滋病战争的一线斗士不再需要做出艰难抉择。", "index": 5107}
{"en": "I left Uganda with a snatch of song that still echoes within my heart.", "zh": "在我离开乌干达的时候，那些歌声仍然在我心头萦绕。", "index": 5108}
{"en": "Its inherent truth would be obvious, had you been there to see:", "zh": "歌声所表达的感情如此强烈，只要你到了那里，一定可以感受到：", "index": 5109}
{"en": "We are still useful.", "zh": "我们仍是有用之材，", "index": 5110}
{"en": "To our countries, to our families.", "zh": "能为国家和家庭做出贡献。", "index": 5111}
{"en": "All we need is a way to live our days,", "zh": "我们需要活下去，", "index": 5112}
{"en": "All we need is to survive in Africa.", "zh": "在非洲活下去。", "index": 5113}
{"en": "Yes, times are hard.", "zh": "是的，世事艰难。", "index": 5114}
{"en": "That is all the more reason to act out of compassion and with generosity.", "zh": "因此我们更加需要放开胸怀，不吝同情。", "index": 5115}
{"en": "Africa’s Diaspora to the Rescue", "zh": "非洲海外移民拯救非洲", "index": 5116}
{"en": "DAKAR – There is something dismally familiar about the tide of news reports concerning Africa’s increased suffering – more poverty, malnutrition, civil strife, and death – in the face of the recent global financial crisis.", "zh": "达喀尔 — — 关于此次全球金融危机下的非洲充斥着连篇累牍的熟悉而又令人痛心的报导。 非洲人民所受的苦难越来越深重 — — 贫困、营养不良、内乱和死亡的境况愈来愈严酷。", "index": 5117}
{"en": "Almost everywhere, the media translates academic conclusions into graphic illustrations of brutality and despair in places such as Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo.", "zh": "几乎在每一个地方，媒体都在用几内亚和刚果民主共和国等地充满残暴和绝望气息的生动故事对这个学术结论进行着诠释。", "index": 5118}
{"en": "But there is another, woefully under-reported, side to the story.", "zh": "但这个故事还有另外一个侧面，而媒体对这个侧面的报导却严重不足。", "index": 5119}
{"en": "African countries that were locked out of international capital markets for most of the past five decades have largely been spared the twin woes of financial turmoil and economic downturn.", "zh": "过去50年来一直被封锁在国际资本市场外的非洲在很大程度上避开了金融动荡和经济衰退的双重困境。", "index": 5120}
{"en": "The continent’s economies experienced a slowdown, but not a recession.", "zh": "非洲大陆的经济增长有所放缓，但却并没有陷入大规模的经济衰退。", "index": 5121}
{"en": "Indeed, according to McKinsey & Company, Africa was the third-largest contributor to world economic growth in 2009, after China and India.", "zh": "事实上，根据麦肯锡公司的统计，非洲是2009年世界经济增长的第三大贡献者，非洲的贡献仅次于中国和印度。", "index": 5122}
{"en": "Moreover, several African countries have received ratings from credit agencies, which has opened up global financial centers to them.", "zh": "此外，有几个非洲国家已经得到信用机构评级，这意味着信用机构的全球金融中心已经对这几个非洲国家开放。", "index": 5123}
{"en": "In some cases, these ratings have proved equivalent to or higher than those of countries such as Turkey or Argentina.", "zh": "在某些情况下，非洲国家的评级已经超过了土耳其或阿根廷，或者至少也与之相当。", "index": 5124}
{"en": "Stock exchanges are being established across the continent.", "zh": "非洲大陆到处都建立了证券交易所。", "index": 5125}
{"en": "Furthermore, countries such as China, India, and Brazil has provided a platform for increased exports and the inception of a model of cooperation based on trade, investment, and technology transfer, rather than “aid.”", "zh": "此外，中国、印度和巴西等国已经建立了平台用于扩大出口，并开创了并非基于“援助 ” 、 而是基于贸易、投资和技术转让的合作模式。", "index": 5126}
{"en": "China-Africa trade alone increased from $10 billion in 2000 to $107 billion in 2008, and billions of dollars are being invested in oil production, mining, transportation, electricity generation and transmission, telecommunications, and other infrastructure.", "zh": "仅中非贸易额就从2000年的100亿美元增长到2008年的1070亿美元，此外还有数十亿美元投向石油开采、采矿、交通运输、发电、电力传输、无线通信和其他基础设施建设。", "index": 5127}
{"en": "These developments have combined to improve African countries’ macroeconomic performance dramatically.", "zh": "这些成就共同改善了非洲国家的宏观经济状况。", "index": 5128}
{"en": "Inflation has been halved since the 1990’s, and foreign-exchange reserves have increased 30%.", "zh": "20世纪90年代通胀降低了一半，而外汇储备则呈现30%的增长。", "index": 5129}
{"en": "Public finances showed a 2.8%-of-GDP surplus in 2008, compared to a 1.4%-of-GDP deficit in 2000-2005.", "zh": "公共财政在2008年出现了占GDP2.8%的盈余，2000－2005年公共财政赤字在GDP中的占比曾为1.4 % 。", "index": 5130}
{"en": "Savings rates are between 10% and 20%, and external debt has decreased from 110% of GDP in 2005 to 21% in 2008.", "zh": "储蓄率徘徊在10－20%之间，而外债则从2005年占GDP的110%下降到2008年占GDP的21 % 。", "index": 5131}
{"en": "Since 2000, sub-Saharan African countries have achieved economic growth of 5-7%.", "zh": "从2000年以来，撒哈拉南部非洲国家已经实现了5-7%的经济增长。", "index": 5132}
{"en": "Many factors have contributed to this upturn.", "zh": "多重因素共同促成了这次经济回暖的现状。", "index": 5133}
{"en": "Emerging-market demand has pushed up commodity prices.", "zh": "新兴市场需求推高了商品价格。", "index": 5134}
{"en": "Urbanization has given rise to a dynamic informal sector.", "zh": "城市化造就了一个活跃的非正规部门。", "index": 5135}
{"en": "Improved governance, higher food production, increased inter-regional trade, debt cancellation, better use of official development assistance (ODA), and thriving telecommunications and housing markets have helped as well.", "zh": "施政改善、扩大粮食产量、区域内贸易增长、债务取消、更合理利用官方发展援助（ODA）和蓬勃发展的电信和住房市场也有助于实现经济增长。", "index": 5136}
{"en": "But transfers from the African diaspora stand out as the most significant contributing factor.", "zh": "但经济恢复最重要的贡献因素是世界各地非洲人的汇款。", "index": 5137}
{"en": "A study commissioned by the Rome-based International Fund for Agricultural Development indicates that more than 30 million individuals living outside their countries of origin contribute more than $40 billion annually in remittances to their families and communities back home.", "zh": "一项由总部设在罗马的国际农业发展基金会发起的研究显示生活在原籍以外的3000多万非洲人每年为国内的家人和社团贡献超过400亿美元的汇款。", "index": 5138}
{"en": "For sub-Saharan African countries, remittances increased from $3.1 billion in 1995 to $18.5 billion in 2007, according to the World Bank, representing between 9% and 24% of GDP and 80-750% of ODA.", "zh": "根据世界银行的统计，撒哈拉以南非洲国家的汇款数额从1995年的31亿美元增长到2007年的185亿美元，这一数字的GDP占比在9%到24%之间，官方发展援助占比则为80－750 % 。", "index": 5139}
{"en": "Migrants’ remittance behavior is essentially dictated by the regulatory environment and the quality – in terms of speed, cost, security, and accessibility – of products and services offered by banks, money-transfer companies, micro-finance institutions, and informal operators.", "zh": "整体监管环境以及银行、汇款公司、小额信贷机构和非���规经营机构的产品和服务质量（包括速度、成本、安全性和易用性）能够对移民的汇款行为造成本质性的影响。", "index": 5140}
{"en": "In this respect, there are three different strategies in place in Africa.", "zh": "在这方面，非洲目前存在三种不同的对策。", "index": 5141}
{"en": "The Anglophone strategy focuses on freeing up the remittance market by encouraging competition, relaxing regulatory constraints for non-bank operators, offering financial incentives, encouraging technical and financial innovation, and stimulating collaboration among market players.", "zh": "英语国家主要通过鼓励竞争、放松对非银行经营者管制、提供财政奖励、鼓励技术及金融创新以及促成市场参与者之间进行合作等方式来放开汇款市场。", "index": 5142}
{"en": "This approach, also adopted by Italy, contributes to reducing costs and increasing the overall volume of funds for beneficiaries.", "zh": "这种方式也被意大利所采用。 它有助于降低成本，增加受益人收到的汇款总额。", "index": 5143}
{"en": "The Hispanic approach emphasizes migrants’ involvement in banking by offering a range of banking services in both the country of origin and the host country, products of specific interest to migrants, and low commissions on foreign transfers.", "zh": "西班牙语国家则通过在移民原籍及其所在国提供各种银行服务、推出与移民利益有特殊关系的产品和手续费低廉的跨国汇款服务来吸引移民参与银行业务。", "index": 5144}
{"en": "This approach, widely developed by Morocco and the Portuguese-speaking world, is epitomized by the zero-commission policy initiated by the Spanish bank Santander and its Moroccan counterpart, Attijariwafa Bank.", "zh": "这种方式被摩洛哥和讲葡萄牙语的国家所广泛采用，其中最具代表性的是由西班牙银行桑坦德集团及其摩洛哥同行阿提哈利瓦法银行首创的零手续费汇款服务。", "index": 5145}
{"en": "Finally, the Francophone approach relies on two types of monopoly.", "zh": "最后，两类垄断构成了法语国家对策的基础。", "index": 5146}
{"en": "The first is enjoyed by Western Union, which controls up to 90% of the total formal transfer volume within Africa’s 16-member Franc Zone.", "zh": "其一是西联的垄断地位，该机构控制了非洲法郎区16国正式汇款高达90%的份额。", "index": 5147}
{"en": "Western Union charges fees as high as 25% on transfers to these countries, compared to an average global benchmark of 5%, and has required that Franc-Zone countries sign exclusivity agreements, thereby preventing foreign-exchange bureaux, post offices, and micro-finance institutions from carrying out money transfers.", "zh": "西联针对这些国家汇款收取高达25%的费用，大大高于全球平均标准的5 % ， 并要求法郎区国家签署独家服务协议，以借此防止外汇局、邮局和小额信贷机构开展货币汇款业务。", "index": 5148}
{"en": "The second monopoly is exercised in the banking sector.", "zh": "法语国家的另外一重垄断存在于银行机构。", "index": 5149}
{"en": "France has a veto within the boards of directors of the Franc Zone’s two central banks, while two French commercial banks, BNP-Paribas and Société Générale, exercise a quasi-monopoly on lending programs, mainly centered on short-term trade financing and the needs of governments, public and private companies, and the elite.", "zh": "法国在法郎区两大央行董事会均握有否决权，与此同时两大法国商业银行 — — 法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行 — — 有权对贷款计划行使准垄断决策，要求贷款计划主要满足短期贸易融资和政府、公私企业及上层人士的需求。", "index": 5150}
{"en": "All other local banks have adopted the same approach, severely restricting access to financial services for households and entrepreneurs.", "zh": "当地其他银行也采用同样的策略，这严重限制了家庭和企业获取金融服务。", "index": 5151}
{"en": "Despite the increasing importance of remittances from Italy, Spain, and the United States, the largest share in absolute terms still originates from France.", "zh": "尽管来自意大利、西班牙和美国的汇款占比越来越大，但绝对意义上的最大额度依然来自于法国。", "index": 5152}
{"en": "There is thus a real need in the Franc Zone for a financing institution that would convert migrant remittances into productive investments, thereby generating jobs and wealth, and that would broaden access to banking services, mortgages, insurance products, pension plans, and technical assistance.", "zh": "因此迫切需要在法郎区出现一家能够将移民汇款转化为高效投资的贷款机构，并以此为起点创造就业机会和财富，能够让更多的人享受到银行服务、抵押贷款、保险产品、养老金计划和技术援助。", "index": 5153}
{"en": "Official statistics for 2009 are likely to show that migrants’ remittances fell sharply, as the global recession severely eroded job opportunities abroad.", "zh": "2009年的官方数据很可能显示移民汇款总额出现大幅度下降，下降的原因是全球经济衰退严重侵蚀了国外的就业机会。", "index": 5154}
{"en": "That makes it all the more important that African countries, many of which have laid a strong groundwork for sustainable growth, have a financial system in place that can leverage remittances effectively as the global economy recovers.", "zh": "在这种情况下，随着全球经济的复苏，非洲国家建立能够有效利用汇款的金融体系就显得至关重要，很多非洲国家都为实现可持续发展奠定了坚实的基础。", "index": 5155}
{"en": "Africa’s Dictator-Diplomat", "zh": "非洲的独裁者外交家", "index": 5156}
{"en": "BRUSSELS – The recent death in Brussels of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi finally brings to light what lay behind his mysterious two-month disappearance from public life.", "zh": "布鲁塞尔—最近，埃塞俄比亚首相泽纳维（Meles Zenawi）在布鲁塞尔逝世，他近两个月以来从公众视野消失之谜终于随之解开。", "index": 5157}
{"en": "Ethiopia’s government had strenuously denied rumors of serious ill health caused by liver cancer.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚政府一直在否认关于他身患严重肝癌的传闻。", "index": 5158}
{"en": "Now that the worst has, indeed, proven true, Ethiopia and all of East Africa will need to learn to live without the stabilizing influence of its great dictator-diplomat.", "zh": "如今，随着最坏的消息最后得到了证实，埃塞俄比亚和整个东非也因此需要学会如何在没了这位伟大的独裁外交家的稳定影响力的情况下生活。", "index": 5159}
{"en": "Meles was certainly both.", "zh": "泽纳维毫无疑问兼具了双重身份。", "index": 5160}
{"en": "Ethiopia has undergone a remarkable transformation under his strongman rule since 1991, when his Tigrayan minority group from the country’s north came to power with the overthrow of the odious Communist Derg led by Mengistu Haile Mariam (still enjoying a comfortable retirement in Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe).", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚自1991年起便在他的铁腕统治下开始了令人瞩目的转型。 他所属的生活在埃塞俄比亚北部的少数民族提格雷族（Tigray）推翻了马里亚姆（Mengistu Haile Mariam）领导的邪恶的共产主义军政府（马里亚姆如今在穆加贝治下的津巴布韦享受着悠闲的退休生活 ） 。", "index": 5161}
{"en": "Initially serving as the president of the first post-Derg government, and then as Ethiopia’s prime minister from 1995 until his death, Meles (his nom de guerre in the revolution) oversaw 7.7% annual GDP growth in recent years.", "zh": "泽纳维最初是后军政府时代第一届政府的总统，接着又于1995年开始出任埃塞俄比亚总理直至去世。 近几年来，在泽纳维（他的名字Meles是革命时期获得的外号）的领导下，埃塞俄比亚的年GDP增长率高达7.7 % 。", "index": 5162}
{"en": "Strong economic performance is somewhat surprising, given his party’s interventionist policy approach, but Meles showed himself to be a consummate pragmatist in attracting investment – particularly from China – to drive growth.", "zh": "强劲的经济表现有些出人意料，因为他所在的政党采取的是干涉主义政策模式，但泽纳维本人在吸引投资（主要来自中国）推动增长方面是个不折不扣的实用主义者。", "index": 5163}
{"en": "Meles’s own political provenance as the leader of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front was Marxist-Leninist.", "zh": "泽纳维以提格雷人民解放阵线（Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front）领导人出身，其政治背景是马克思列宁主义的。", "index": 5164}
{"en": "But, when the Cold War ended, so, too, did his dogmatism.", "zh": "但是，随着冷战的结束，他也抛弃了马列主义教条。", "index": 5165}
{"en": "To his credit, child mortality was reduced by 40% under his government; Ethiopia’s economy became more diversified, with new industries like car manufacturing, beverages, and floriculture; and major infrastructure projects, including Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, were launched.", "zh": "在他的政府治下，婴儿死亡率下降了40 % ； 埃塞俄比亚经济实现了多样化，出现了汽车制造、餐饮、花卉等新产业；还建成了一系列主要基础设施工程，包括非洲最大的水电大坝 — — 这些都要记在他的功劳簿上。", "index": 5166}
{"en": "Once a basket-case associated in the world’s eyes only with famine and drought, Ethiopia has become one of Africa’s largest economies – and without the benefit of gold or oil.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚曾是饥饿和干旱的代名词，但现如今它已成为非洲最大经济体之一 — — 而且是在不靠黄金和石油的情况下取得的。", "index": 5167}
{"en": "Perhaps more important than Meles’s domestic achievements was his diplomatic record.", "zh": "也许比泽纳维的国内成就更重要的是他的外交记录。", "index": 5168}
{"en": "He was an indispensable ally of the West in the fight against Islamist terrorism, culminating in Ethiopia’s military operation in neighboring Somalia in 2006.", "zh": "他是西方必不可少的对抗伊斯兰恐怖主义的盟友，2006年埃塞俄比亚对邻国索马里的军事行动是这一角色的巅峰之作。", "index": 5169}
{"en": "More recently, Meles coordinated efforts with Kenya to stage limited strikes against the al-Shabaab militia, which has waged an unrelenting war to turn Somalia into a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy.", "zh": "最近，泽纳维与肯尼亚一起合作对青年军（al-Shabaab）进行了有限打击。 青年军一直在试图把索马里转变为原教旨伊斯兰神权国家。", "index": 5170}
{"en": "At the same time, Meles courted China as both an investor and as a hedge against the West’s criticism of his human-rights record.", "zh": "与此同时，泽纳维还吸引中国，既作为投资者，也作为西方对其人权纪录批评的挡箭牌。", "index": 5171}
{"en": "And yet he controversially but rightly held out a hand of friendship to the breakaway region of Somaliland, before it became fashionable, and went as far as he could short of formal re-recognition of that ray of democratic hope in the Horn of Africa.", "zh": "此外，他还���受争议但正确地向索马里兰分裂地区伸出了友谊之手，此时这一举动还远未成为时尚。 他还竭尽全力促成正式重启谈判，为非洲之角带来民主的希望之光。", "index": 5172}
{"en": "Meles will be sorely missed in Hargeisa, as he planned to run a Chinese-financed gas pipeline through Somaliland territory from the Ogaden to the coast.", "zh": "泽纳维将会被哈尔格萨（Hargeisa）人民永远铭记，因为他计划在索马里兰领土上建造一条从奥加登（Ogaden）到海边的输气管道，资金由中国提供。", "index": 5173}
{"en": "More important, Meles put Addis Ababa on the map as the home of the African Union, and as a capital where Africa’s worst problems could be discussed in a pragmatic manner, unburdened by colonial grudges.", "zh": "更重要的是，泽纳维让亚的斯亚贝巴成为非洲联盟的总部，该市也成为能够务实讨论非洲最严重问题的非洲之都。", "index": 5174}
{"en": "Meles himself became a major diplomatic player, particularly over climate-change policy, and most recently was active in mediating border and natural-resource disputes between Sudan and the newly independent (and oil-rich) South Sudan.", "zh": "泽纳维本人也在外交舞台上长袖善舞，特别是在气候变化问题上，最近，他还积极地为斡旋苏丹和新独立的（富油的）南苏丹之间边境和自然资源之争奔走。", "index": 5175}
{"en": "He will be remembered for accepting the painful secession of Eritrea in 1993, rather than prolong the civil war, and for his efforts to reach an agreement with Egypt over the use of the Blue Nile waters.", "zh": "他将因在1993年痛苦地接受厄立特里亚独立而不是延长了内战时间而被人铭记，也将因与埃及达成了如何使用青尼罗河河水的协议而被人铭记。", "index": 5176}
{"en": "The great stain on Meles’s record will always be his intolerance of dissent.", "zh": "对持异见者的不容忍是泽纳维的一大污点。", "index": 5177}
{"en": "To be sure, his human-rights record was far better than the Derg’s.", "zh": "平心而论，他的人权纪录比军政府好多了。", "index": 5178}
{"en": "For example, he allowed a private press to flourish, and in 2000 he became the first Ethiopian leader to hold multi-party parliamentary elections.", "zh": "比如，他允许私人出版社的经营，在2000年，他还成为首位主持多党议会选举的埃塞俄比亚领导人。", "index": 5179}
{"en": "Moreover, compared to neighboring Eritrea under President Isaias Afewerki or Omar al-Bashir’s Sudan, his regime was by no means the worst offender in the region.", "zh": "此外，与阿费沃尔基（Isaias Afewerki）总统治下的厄立特里亚和巴希尔的苏丹等邻国相比，他的政权绝对称不上是该地区的头号罪犯。", "index": 5180}
{"en": "Nor was there much evidence of personal enrichment or widespread corruption.", "zh": "埃塞俄比亚也没有多少中饱私囊和腐败横行的证据。", "index": 5181}
{"en": "Nevertheless, following a violently contested parliamentary election in 2005, in which more than 30 parties participated, Meles demonstrated open contempt for democratic pluralism and press freedom, jailing several journalists in recent years.", "zh": "尽管如此，在2005年经历了有30多个政党参与的竞争惨烈的议会选举之后，泽纳维公开对民主多元论和言论自由表示鄙夷，并在最近几年囚禁了多位记者。", "index": 5182}
{"en": "At the same time, he imposed increasingly strict central control on his ethnically and linguistically diverse country.", "zh": "与此同时，对于他统治的在种族和语言上多样化程度极高的国家，他采取了越来越严格的中央控制。", "index": 5183}
{"en": "Although nominally governed by “ethnic federalism,” where this threatened secession, as in Oromia or the Ogaden, Meles was quick to ignore the constitutional set-up.", "zh": "尽管名义上埃塞俄比亚是“民族联邦制”国家，但若出现分裂危险 — — 比如奥罗米亚（Oromia）和奥加登 — — 泽纳维很快就放弃了这一宪法规定。", "index": 5184}
{"en": "Although he strengthened religious freedom and peaceful coexistence between Muslims and Christians, the human-rights situation in Ethiopia remained poor.", "zh": "尽管他加强了宗教自由和穆斯林和基督徒之间的和平共存，但埃塞俄比亚的人权状况依然很差。", "index": 5185}
{"en": "For example, groups like Freedom House and Human Rights Watch have documented widespread official repression of the Oromo people.", "zh": "比如，自由之家和人权观察等组织就报告说奥罗莫族遭受了普遍的官方压迫。", "index": 5186}
{"en": "And yet Meles is irreplaceable – unmatched intellectually as an African leader (he dropped out of medical school, but went on to teach himself impeccable English and obtain European university degrees by correspondence), and unmatched politically at home, with no obvious successor groomed to replace him.", "zh": "但泽纳维是不可替代的 — — 作为非洲领导人，他的智商无与伦比（他曾经学医，辍学后自学英语直到熟练掌握，并通过函授获得了欧洲大学的学位 ） ， 在国内，他的政治能力也无与伦比，没有显而易见的继任者能够取代他。", "index": 5187}
{"en": "In the Horn of Africa, there is no leader of his stature who could ensure the stability and strong governance that the region so desperately needs.", "zh": "在非洲之角，没有人能像他那样能够确保该地区继续的稳定而强硬的治理。", "index": 5188}
{"en": "Hailemariam Desalegn, Meles’s foreign minister, will take over Ethiopia’s government.", "zh": "泽纳维的外交部长德萨勒恩（Hailenmarian Desalegn）将执掌埃塞俄比亚政府。", "index": 5189}
{"en": "But there will be considerable concern in the West about the danger of a power vacuum or struggle in a geopolitically vital but fractious country – and just when neighboring Somalia is supposed to be undergoing a transition to a new parliament and elected government.", "zh": "但西方很担心出现权力真空或在一个具有极高地缘政治重要性但又极难对付的国家出现斗争，而与此同时相邻的索马里又正好即将经历通向新议会和选举政府的转型。", "index": 5190}
{"en": "For his admirers and critics alike, Meles leaves behind a potent political legacy.", "zh": "毁也好，誉也罢，泽纳维身后留下了强有力的政治遗产。", "index": 5191}
{"en": "He will be remembered as an African leader of major historical significance: visionary, despotic, and indispensable.", "zh": "他将作为具有重大历史影响力的非洲领导人被人铭记：远见卓识、暴虐专横又不可或缺。", "index": 5192}
{"en": "Africa’s Economic House Divided", "zh": "难以维系的非洲经济", "index": 5193}
{"en": "DAKAR – The world economic downturn and financial-market tremors have strained budgets across Africa.", "zh": "达喀尔 — — 世界经济衰退和金融市场震荡已经导致非洲国家预算紧张。", "index": 5194}
{"en": "With the exception of Ghana, and a few other states, in 2009 most African countries’ fiscal balances deteriorated.", "zh": "除加纳和少数几个其他国家之外，2009年绝大多数非洲国家的财政收支状况均呈现恶化态势。", "index": 5195}
{"en": "But, thanks to prudent management of public finances during previous periods of robust growth, a significant number of African countries have endured the current crisis in better fiscal shape than during past crises.", "zh": "但多亏在之前的强劲增长期对公共财政的审慎管理，相当数量的非洲国家在这次危机中的财政状况强过以往的历次危机。", "index": 5196}
{"en": "In 2009, aggregate GDP growth in Africa averaged 1.6%, down from about 5.7% during the 2002-2008 period – but growth all the same.", "zh": "2009年，非洲各国合计平均GDP增长为1.6 % ， 较之2002－2008年间的5.7%有所下降，但仍然呈现增长态势。", "index": 5197}
{"en": "Moreover, several African countries continued to implement long-term reforms to improve their business and investment climate, despite the daunting challenges presented by the crisis.", "zh": "此外，尽管面临金融危机的严峻挑战，但一些非洲国家仍继续推进改善商业和投资环境的长期改革措施。", "index": 5198}
{"en": "Now that international trade and global industrial production are on the mend, sub-Saharan economies look set for more robust growth, as demand for and prices of oil and other minerals rebound and general economic activity resumes.", "zh": "当前国际贸易和全球工业生产正逐渐好转，随着石油和其他矿产品需求及价格反弹和一般经济活动恢复，撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲国家似乎增长会更加强劲。", "index": 5199}
{"en": "Of course, numerous downside risks – adverse weather shocks, military conflict, and political turmoil – still can undermine the hard-earned benefits of this social and economic record.", "zh": "当然，恶劣天气的冲击、军事冲突和政治动荡等多种下行风险仍然可以破坏这一社会经济记录的来之不易的收益。", "index": 5200}
{"en": "But it is the dichotomized nature of their economies and finances that represents Africa’s most intractable structural imbalance.", "zh": "但让非洲最棘手的结构性失衡却是其经济和金融结构的二元化属性。", "index": 5201}
{"en": "Frankly, two Africa’s are emerging: a modern economy and a cash-based economy.", "zh": "坦率地说，有两个非洲正在崛起： 一个是现代经济的非洲，而另一个则是以现金为基础的经济。", "index": 5202}
{"en": "Across Africa, almost all governments praise – some honestly, some not – economic modernization as the cornerstone of prosperity and the yardstick by which their effectiveness should be measured. Many boast of the modernity of the financial infrastructure of their economies, which is based on an entire set of legal, regulatory, accounting, credit reporting, and payment and settlement systems.", "zh": "在非洲国家，无论由衷与否，几乎所有政府都将经济现代化奉为繁荣的基石和自身执政效率的衡量标准而推崇备至。 许多国家夸耀自身金融基础设施的现代化，这种现代化的金融基础设施是以一整套法律、法规、会计、征信、支付和结算系统为基础建立的。", "index": 5203}
{"en": "National payment systems operate electronic-based payment products and services.", "zh": "国家支付系统推出一系列电子支付产品和服务。", "index": 5204}
{"en": "A high-value inter-bank funds-transfer system settles transactions in real time, eliminates credit risk between system participants, increases circulation of funds, and enhances monetary-policy implementation.", "zh": "一套具有极高价值的银行间资金转移系统负责进行实时交易结算、消除系统参与者之间的信用风险、加速资金周转，以及改善货币政策的实施。", "index": 5205}
{"en": "Banks are provided with a facility to monitor their positions in real time and hence make cost-effective investment decisions.", "zh": "这套系统为银行提供实施监管头寸的相关工具，从而辅助它们做出符合成本效益原则的投资决策。", "index": 5206}
{"en": "So far, only a few registered financial institutions, primarily offshoots of Western commercial banks, have access to such payment-system facilities.", "zh": "目前，只有西方商业银行分支机构等少数几家注册金融机构获准使用这套付款系统设施。", "index": 5207}
{"en": "Non-banking financial institutions such as foreign exchange bureaus, post offices, and micro-finance lenders are not admitted, even when they are financially sound and sustainable.", "zh": "外汇局、邮局和小额信贷机构等非银行金融机构即使财务健全、有持续发展能力也没有资格进入。", "index": 5208}
{"en": "The effects of banks’ hijacking of national payment systems to service only the modern economy are compounded by the exclusive agreements that banks and money-transfer companies such as Western Union have signed with most African countries.", "zh": "银行和西联等汇款公司与多数非洲国家签订的独家协议进一步加剧了银行劫持国家支付系统、只为现代经济服务的恶果。", "index": 5209}
{"en": "These agreements lock out non-banking entities from the highly lucrative market for migrant remittances from the African diaspora, which remain a key engine of growth.", "zh": "上述协议将非银行机构排除在利润丰厚的非洲散居移民汇款市场之外，而散居移民汇款一直是非洲经济增长的重要引擎。", "index": 5210}
{"en": "Yet rapid urbanization everywhere in Africa has given rise to a dynamic informal sector unconnected to the modern economy.", "zh": "但非洲各地快速城市化已经催生出一个与现代经济无关的活跃的非正规部门。", "index": 5211}
{"en": "Although marginalized by African officials, this cash-based economy is a major contributor to the continent’s productive capacity.", "zh": "虽然被非洲官员边缘化，但上述以现金为基础的经济仍然是这块大陆生产率的主要贡献者。", "index": 5212}
{"en": "It employs more than 90% of the workforce and is home to 75% of the retailers.", "zh": "这个部门吸纳了超过90%的劳动者和75%的零售业者。", "index": 5213}
{"en": "But, despite the pivotal economic role that the informal sector plays, it has no access to conventional bank loans.", "zh": "但尽管上述非正规部门发挥了如此关键的经济作用，它仍然不具备获得传统银行贷款的资格。", "index": 5214}
{"en": "Micro-finance institutions provide the only credit lines open to informal operators.", "zh": "微型金融机构提供了向非正规经营者们开放的唯一的信贷额度。", "index": 5215}
{"en": "The micro-finance business model is based on lending that is guaranteed by the group.", "zh": "集体担保贷款是小额信贷的惯用商业模式。 这种模式进而转化为减轻信贷风险并鼓励付款纪律的休戚相关的网络和支持机制。", "index": 5216}
{"en": "This translates into a solidarity network and a support mechanism that mitigates credit risk and encourages payment discipline. Credit repayment in well-managed micro-finance institutions is around 95%. All studies undertaken in the area have also revealed that women are not only the most active among informal-sector entrepreneurs, but they are also quicker to meet their commitments.", "zh": "管理状况良好的小额信贷机构其信贷还款率为95%左右。 相关领域进行的所有研究也显示女性不仅是非正规经济部门最活跃的企业家，而且也能更迅速地兑现她们的承诺。", "index": 5217}
{"en": "African states must now recognize that modernizing their informal sectors by integrating them into the modern economy can be a major development tool. Yet only a few countries have started moving in that direction.", "zh": "非洲国家现在必须意识到将非正规部门现代化并纳入现代经济范畴能够成为一种重要的发展工具。 但只有几个国家开始进行这方面的努力。", "index": 5218}
{"en": "Nigeria has refrained from signing any exclusive agreements with Western Union and others, and its newly consolidated banking industry is making significant inroads across the region.", "zh": "尼日利亚已经拒绝与西联和其他企业签订独家协议，这个国家最新完成整合的银行业在区域内的进展非常迅速。", "index": 5219}
{"en": "Rwanda, too, has enacted regulations that eliminate exclusive agreements, opening doors for micro-finance institutions to become payment-service providers.", "zh": "卢旺达也已经通过了废除独家协议的法规，并向小额信贷机构敞开大门，吸纳它们加入支付服务提供商的队伍。", "index": 5220}
{"en": "The South African Reserve Bank has created a special platform within its national payment system for micro-finance institutions and non-banks.", "zh": "而南非储备银行已经在国家支付系统内部为小额信贷及非银行机构建立了一个特别的平台。", "index": 5221}
{"en": "Malawi’s national payments system is directly accessible to non-bank participants, including third-party service providers.", "zh": "马拉维的国家支付系统直接对包括第三方服务提供商在内的非银行参与者开放。", "index": 5222}
{"en": "Giving micro-finance institutions access to national and regional payments systems and electronic retail facilities will go a long way toward meeting the requirements of the retail and business sector in terms of banking facilities.", "zh": "允许小额信贷机构使用国家和地区支付系统及电子零售设施将会在银行信贷领域对满足零售和商业部门的需求产生很大的帮助。", "index": 5223}
{"en": "It will also help facilitate access by the poorest to financial services, thus helping to reduce the high proportion of the un-banked population.", "zh": "这样也有助于底层贫困人口使用金融服务，从而降低不使用银行服务的人口比例。", "index": 5224}
{"en": "All of this will invariably spur development and integration of national financial systems and intra-regional trade.", "zh": "所有这些总能促进国家金融系统和区内贸易的发展和整合。", "index": 5225}
{"en": "This will be a welcome development, because a large proportion of intra-regional trade is carried out by informal operators and small and medium enterprises that do not have access to the banking system.", "zh": "这样的发展趋势令人欣慰，因为很大比例的区域内贸易来自那些无权利用银行系统的非正规经营者及中小企业。", "index": 5226}
{"en": "Moreover, economic integration and increased intra-regional trade are the best entry point into global markets for all countries.", "zh": "此外，经济整合和加强区域贸易是所有国家进军全球市场的最佳切入点。", "index": 5227}
{"en": "When it comes to analyzing what ails Africa, it is customary to dwell at length on the continent’s traumatic past.", "zh": "每每谈到对非洲存在问题的分析，人们总是习惯于不厌其烦地历数这块大陆满是创伤的过去。", "index": 5228}
{"en": "But it strains the imagination to link Africa’s colonial-era pains with the willingness of African leaders to spend a fortune to equip their countries with state-of-the-art settlement systems, and then proceed to exclude their citizens from using them.", "zh": "但是将非洲殖民时代的阵痛与非洲领导人耗费巨资为国家建设最先进的结算系统，而后又禁止本国公民对其加以利用这两者联系在一起却似乎超出了人们的想象力。", "index": 5229}
{"en": "Abraham Lincoln once said that a house divided cannot stand.", "zh": "亚伯拉罕·林肯曾经说过“不顺则不立 ” 。", "index": 5230}
{"en": "There is an economic corollary to this: an economic house divided cannot prosper.", "zh": "这句话在经济领域的推论是： 繁荣只能来自于高效顺畅的经济关系。", "index": 5231}
{"en": "Africa’s Hard Black Gold", "zh": "非洲的硬黑金", "index": 5232}
{"en": "LAGOS - Few infrastructure services in the developed world may be as taken for granted as electric power.", "zh": "拉各斯 - - 在发达国家中，没有什么基础设施服务项目比电力更为普及、人们更为习以为常的了。", "index": 5233}
{"en": "To consumers in industrialized countries, uninterrupted power supply is a given.", "zh": "对于工业化国家的消费者而言，不中断的电力供应是天经地义的。", "index": 5234}
{"en": "Not so in much of Africa, which experiences some of the world’s greatest power deficits, and where only two in ten people have access to electricity.", "zh": "但是这在非洲并非如此。 非洲的几个地方是全世界电力短缺最为严重的，只有百分之二十的人口有电力供应。", "index": 5235}
{"en": "According to the International Monetary Fund’s most recent Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, in 2007 alone, nearly two-thirds of the countries in the region experienced an acute energy crisis marked by frequent and extended electricity outages.", "zh": "国际货币基金组织最新发表的非洲萨哈拉以南地区经济展望指出，仅仅在2007年，该地区三分之二的国家存在极度能源危机，表现为经常持续断电。", "index": 5236}
{"en": "There is no shortage of hydropower plants for electricity generation in Africa.", "zh": "非洲并不乏水电站发电。", "index": 5237}
{"en": "However, many of these plants are unable to keep up with rapid population growth and attendant increases in demand.", "zh": "但是，许多这些电站无法跟上快速人口增长以及随之而来的需求增加。", "index": 5238}
{"en": "Furthermore, they are prone to frequent drought, which reduces their output significantly, leaving many as little more than decorative infrastructure landmarks.", "zh": "而且，这些电站还要受到频繁的干旱影响。 干旱会大幅度降低电力产量，使得很多电站成为基础设施点缀而已。", "index": 5239}
{"en": "Increasingly burgeoning populations in countries like Nigeria and Ghana imply a greater extraction of water resources for power generation.", "zh": "尼日利亚和加纳等国人口越发膨胀，意味着要加大抽取水资源用于发电。", "index": 5240}
{"en": "Rapid expansion of agricultural activity is requiring more and more water all across the continent.", "zh": "农业活动迅速扩大，对整个非洲大陆的用水提出了更高的需求。", "index": 5241}
{"en": "Other resources like fuel oil, diesel, light crude, solar, and gas are also available as means of electricity generation, but their costs are all quite prohibitive.", "zh": "燃油、煤油、轻原油、太阳能以及天然气等其他资源也可以用于发电，但是它们的成本过高，无法供应。", "index": 5242}
{"en": "These factors make a good argument for coal as a cheap alternative source of Africa's power.", "zh": "这些因素使得人们可以提出使用煤炭作为便宜的非洲电力替代资源。", "index": 5243}
{"en": "Coal has historically played a crucial role as a source of energy worldwide, and has several important advantages over other fossil fuels.  First is its relative abundance.", "zh": "在历史上，煤炭作为全世界的能源来源发挥了关键作用，而且对于其他矿物燃料拥有几个重要的优势。", "index": 5244}
{"en": "The current level of proven coal reserves worldwide stands at roughly 850 billion tons.", "zh": "首先是煤炭储量相对丰富。 目前全世界探明的煤炭储量大约是8500亿吨。", "index": 5245}
{"en": "Africa has about 50 billion tons.", "zh": "非洲有大约500亿吨。", "index": 5246}
{"en": "Coal is also much more widely distributed geographically than any other fossil fuel.", "zh": "煤炭要比其他任何矿物燃料分布更为广泛。", "index": 5247}
{"en": "Worldwide energy demand has increased by more than 50% since 1980, and is expected to grow annually by 1.6% between now and 2030.", "zh": "从1980年以来，全球能源需求增加了50%以上，而且预计将会从现在起到2030年每年增加1.6 % 。", "index": 5248}
{"en": "More than 70% of this new demand will come from developing countries, with fossil fuels projected to account for about 80% of total energy demand by the end of this period.", "zh": "这一新需求的70%以上来自发展中国家。 预计，矿物燃料将在这一期间末占全部能源需求的大约80 % 。", "index": 5249}
{"en": "Coal is the world’s fastest growing fossil fuel, with annual production increasing by 6.4% since 2004.", "zh": "煤炭是世界上增长最快的矿物燃料，从2004年以来年产量递增6.4 % 。", "index": 5250}
{"en": "It is already the dominant source of power generation in some very important energy-consuming nations.", "zh": "在某些十分重要的能源消费国家中，煤炭已经统领电力来源。", "index": 5251}
{"en": "Much of the future increases in coal-fired electricity generation will come from strategically important developing countries like China and India.", "zh": "中国和印度等战略上重要的发展中国家将会是未来煤炭发电增长的主要国家。", "index": 5252}
{"en": "In 2006 alone, China added about 93,000 megawatts of coal- fired electricity generating capacity, and this trend is expected to continue as the country tries to meet its huge energy needs.", "zh": "仅仅在2006年，中国增加了大约93000百万瓦特的煤炭发电产量，而且这一趋势预计将会随着中国努力满足其巨大的能源需求而继续。", "index": 5253}
{"en": "Even in many developed countries, coal still accounts for a large share of power generation.", "zh": "即使在许多发达国家，煤炭依然占据发电量的很大一部分。", "index": 5254}
{"en": "Coal plants currently provide more than half of America’s electricity supply.", "zh": "美国电力供应的一半以上来自于煤电厂。", "index": 5255}
{"en": "Denmark, which houses some of the most efficient coal-fired power plants in the world, equally relies on coal for half of its electricity production.", "zh": "丹麦拥有一些全世界最为高效的煤电厂，其煤炭发电占据半壁河山。", "index": 5256}
{"en": "The same is true for Germany, which is home to some of the most efficient pulverized coal combustion units in Europe.", "zh": "德国也是一样，它拥有一些欧洲最为高效的粉煤燃烧电厂。", "index": 5257}
{"en": "Poland uses coal for 98% of its electricity production, and South Africa uses coal for about 50% of its electricity production.", "zh": "波兰电力生产的98%使用煤炭，而南非则为大约一半。", "index": 5258}
{"en": "Against this picture then, it is hard not to expect developing countries to exploit their abundant coal resources to generate power for their own development, especially given that modern technology can help produce coal cleanly.", "zh": "因此，在这种背景下，特别是鉴于现代技术可以帮助以清洁的方式产煤，人们很难不料想发展中国家会开发其丰富的煤炭资源来为其自身发展提供电力。", "index": 5259}
{"en": "Some argue that gas might be a better alternative to hydro or coal, but for countries that must import much of their gas the benefits of a stable and reliable source of cheap fuel in the form of coal present a very strong counter-argument to the capital costs of a gas plant.", "zh": "有人认为，天然气或许是水力或者煤炭更好的替代之物。 但是对于必须进口大部分天然气的国家而言，以煤炭作为稳定和可靠的便宜燃料来源益处多多，而天然气电厂需要资本投入，因此煤炭是强有力的反驳。", "index": 5260}
{"en": "Unlike prices for coal, which is abundant and dispersed geographically, gas prices are subject to significant volatility, and the long-term trend in the face of fossil fuel depletion is uncertain.", "zh": "煤炭储量丰富，分布广泛。 与煤炭价格相比，天然气价格波动巨大，而且，在矿物燃料殆尽的情况下，其长期趋势也不明朗。", "index": 5261}
{"en": "In contrast, coal prices are more stable, and may remain that way for a long time.", "zh": "比较而言，煤炭价格更为稳定，也可能持续很长一段时间。", "index": 5262}
{"en": "Apart from electric-power generation, coal also has wide application in a number of industries.", "zh": "除了发电，煤炭还广泛应用于其他几个产业。", "index": 5263}
{"en": "It is pivotal in both steel and cement production.", "zh": "它是钢铁和水泥生产的关键要素。", "index": 5264}
{"en": "Moreover, the use of wood by Africa’s growing population is causing increasingly rapid deforestation in many countries.", "zh": "而且，非洲越来越多的人口使用木材正在许多国家造成森林迅速退化。", "index": 5265}
{"en": "There is significant potential domestic demand for coal briquettes to replace wood for cooking and domestic and industrial heating.", "zh": "煤饼的潜在需求巨大，以取代木材用于做饭、家用和工业取暖。", "index": 5266}
{"en": "The demand outlook thus appears favorable for the coal industry, creating significant investment opportunities.", "zh": "因此，煤炭产业的需求前景颇佳，从而创造巨大的投资机遇。", "index": 5267}
{"en": "Clearly, there are environmental drawbacks from the use of coal as an energy resource, and these concerns are far too important to overlook.", "zh": "很明显，使用煤炭作为一种能源会产生环境倒退，而且人们不能忽视这些巨大的担忧。", "index": 5268}
{"en": "The massive reserves notwithstanding, coal is still a finite resource.", "zh": "尽管储藏巨大，但是煤炭依旧是有限资源。", "index": 5269}
{"en": "It must be mined with greater efficiency and with a view to mitigating the environmental impact.", "zh": "因此，必须更为高效地开采煤炭并且顾及减少环境影响。", "index": 5270}
{"en": "Fortunately, much greater attention is paid today to mine safety and the management of the by-products of coal use.", "zh": "所幸的是，如今人们对煤矿安全以及管理煤炭使用的副产品更为关注。", "index": 5271}
{"en": "With acid rain and other public-health hazards linked to coal combustion, more technologies are emerging for reducing harmful emissions from power plants.", "zh": "酸雨和其他公共健康危害与煤炭燃烧有关，越来越多的技术正在涌现以减少发电厂的有害排放。", "index": 5272}
{"en": "Fueled by research, the past few years have witnessed the development of increasingly cleaner and more energy-efficient coal-fired generation plants and the retirement of older technologies, especially in the developed world.", "zh": "过去几年中，受到研发推动，越发清洁、更为高效的煤电厂建成，而且，特别是在发达国家中旧技术正在淘汰。", "index": 5273}
{"en": "Developing countries have lagged behind in this process, but, with the common threat of global warming, there is now growing pressure to adopt conservation policies.", "zh": "发展中国家在这一进程中已经落后，但是，随着全球变暖的共��威胁，现在采纳保护环境政策的压力越来越大。", "index": 5274}
{"en": "Africa's mineral-rich countries must exploit their abundant natural resources.", "zh": "非洲矿物储量丰富的国家必须利用它们丰富的自然资源。", "index": 5275}
{"en": "They must use coal to advance their economic development.", "zh": "它们必须使用煤炭来推进经济发展。", "index": 5276}
{"en": "Failure to do so would be a missed opportunity at a time when African countries must avail themselves of all available resources for poverty reduction.", "zh": "当前，非洲国家必须利用所有可资利用的资源脱贫，否则就会坐失良机。", "index": 5277}
{"en": "Africa’s Immunity", "zh": "非洲的免疫", "index": 5278}
{"en": "ACCRA – The United States suffers rising job losses.", "zh": "阿克拉—越来越多的美国人丢掉了工作。", "index": 5279}
{"en": "Britain nationalizes its banks.", "zh": "英国对银行实行国有化。", "index": 5280}
{"en": "Once high-flying small economies like Ireland, Hungary, and Iceland break down.", "zh": "爱尔兰，匈牙利，冰岛等一度腾飞的小型经济体垮掉了。", "index": 5281}
{"en": "Even robust China and India are experiencing slower growth, curtailed ambitions, and broken dreams.", "zh": "甚至连生机勃勃的中国和印度也在放慢增长速度，雄心被抑制，美梦正破碎。", "index": 5282}
{"en": "Yet, in sub-Saharan Africa, there are few hints of the global financial crisis that is consuming the capitalist world.", "zh": "但是，在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，却几乎看不到全球金融危机的影响，虽然这场危机正在毁掉资本主义世界。", "index": 5283}
{"en": "In fashionable African cities, residential home prices remain stratospheric.", "zh": "在时髦的非洲城市，住宅房屋的价格依然高不可攀。", "index": 5284}
{"en": "A typical Western-style house in Kampala or Accra, for example, now costs an astonishing two to three times the price of a comparable home in, say, Cleveland or other cities in the American heartland.", "zh": "例如，比起克里夫兰或是美国心脏地带其他城市里类似的房子，坎帕拉和阿克拉城里一栋典型的西式房屋现在的价格要高出一到两倍，这令人惊奇。", "index": 5285}
{"en": "While home prices are crashing from Madrid to Dublin and Miami to Los Angeles, African prices remain near or at record-high levels.", "zh": "从马德里到都柏林，从迈阿密到洛杉矶，房价一路狂跌，而非洲房价却接近或者正处于有史以来的最高水平。", "index": 5286}
{"en": "African banks, meanwhile, are rock-solid compared to their debt-heavy counterparts in the US and Europe.", "zh": "与此同时，比起身负重债的美国和欧洲银行，非洲银行坚如磐石。", "index": 5287}
{"en": "While international bankers went bust by making legions of bad loans, African bankers stuck to earning profits the old-fashioned way: paying very little to depositors, and earning a big “spread” by buying guaranteed government debt, which yielded healthy returns.", "zh": "当国际银行家们因为发放了大批不良贷款而破产的时候，非洲银行家坚持采用老派方法来赚取利润：付给存款人很少的利息，同时通过购买有担保的政府债务来获得大额差价， 这些债务会带来健康稳定的回报。", "index": 5288}
{"en": "Even government deficit spending – long the bane of Africa – seems positively puny compared to the massive debts that the US and some European countries face.", "zh": "和美国以及一些欧洲国家面临的巨额债务相比，甚至连政府的赤字开支—长久以来这一直是非洲的祸害—似乎也完全是微不足道的。", "index": 5289}
{"en": "The new Obama administration is proposing spending plans that would create a record US deficit of more than one trillion dollars – and this coming on top of the outgoing Bush administration’s record deficit.", "zh": "新的奥巴马政府提出了开支计划，其中赤字超过一万亿美元，这会创下新的纪录。 而这还是在刚离任的布什政府已经创下了有史以来的最高赤字之后。", "index": 5290}
{"en": "And yet there are good reasons to believe that it is just a matter of time before Africa and its peoples experience the ill effects of the global crisis.", "zh": "尽管如此，仍然有可靠的原因让我们相信非洲和它的人民将会吞下全球危机的恶果，这只是个时间问题而已。", "index": 5291}
{"en": "From Ghana to Kenya, governments are having increased difficulty in raising money for infrastructure projects and selling official debt.", "zh": "从加纳到肯尼亚，政府为基础设施项目融资和出售政府债务时面临的困难正在增加。", "index": 5292}
{"en": "Foreign investment in sub-Saharan Africa, which reached record levels in recent years, is retreating, which is evidence of investor caution, not any underlying lack of optimism about the region.", "zh": "近年来，外国在撒哈拉以南地区的投资创下新高，但这些投资正在撤出。 这意味着投资者开始谨慎行事，他们不再掩饰对这个地区缺乏信心。", "index": 5293}
{"en": "And exports of raw materials to China, India, Europe, and the US – a key factor in Africa’s recent growth surge – may suffer simply because the global slowdown means less consumption everywhere.", "zh": "向中国，印度，欧洲和美国出口原材料是非洲最近经济飙升的一个关键因素，但这种出口可能受挫，因为全球经济下滑意味着每个地区都会减少消费。", "index": 5294}
{"en": "All of these factors suggest that an African financial bust is possible.", "zh": "所有这些因素都表明非洲可能发生金融破产。", "index": 5295}
{"en": "Popular equity investments, such as shares in Safaricom, are already trading at unexpectedly low levels.", "zh": "流行的股权投资，例如Safaricom里面的股份，已经在以低得出乎意料的水平进行交易了。", "index": 5296}
{"en": "If real estate prices were to fall dramatically, a chain reaction could occur, taking down big and small investors alike, and over time causing wide suffering to ordinary Africans.", "zh": "如果地产价格急剧下降，就会发生连锁反应，大小投资者同样受困，一段时间过后还会给许多普通非洲民众带来痛苦。", "index": 5297}
{"en": "Even assuming stability in real estate prices, the global crisis surely will cause a fall in remittances by Africans working good jobs in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, and the Middle East.", "zh": "即使假设地产价格稳定，全球危机也必然会导致在外工作的非洲人士减少汇款。 这些人工作优渥，呆在欧洲，美国，加拿大，澳大利亚和中东。", "index": 5298}
{"en": "Remittances are already believed to be falling, which makes sense: immigrants in rich countries are and will be disproportionately hurt by slowing economic activity.", "zh": "人们已经相信汇款额会下降，这不难理解：经济活动减缓正在，而且将要，极大伤害迁往富裕国家的移民。", "index": 5299}
{"en": "Immigration itself may even slow dramatically, depending on the length and depth of the economic slowdown.", "zh": "基于经济衰退的长度和深度，甚至移民活动本身也会急剧减少。", "index": 5300}
{"en": "Fewer Africans working in rich countries will automatically translate into less money circulating in African countries.", "zh": "当在富裕国家工作的非洲人数量减少时，这自然会导致在非洲国家里流动的钱也会变少", "index": 5301}
{"en": "The decline in remittances, however, cuts both ways.", "zh": "然而，减少汇款具有正反两面作用。", "index": 5302}
{"en": "Remittances have long spurred inflation in many parts of Africa.", "zh": "长期以来，汇款刺激了非洲很多地方的通货膨胀。", "index": 5303}
{"en": "A Ugandan doctor working in Norway, for instance, cares little about the cost of a beer in Kampala.", "zh": "例如，一位在挪威工作的乌干达医生很少关注坎帕拉一瓶啤酒的价格。", "index": 5304}
{"en": "He is also willing – and able – to pay more than a local doctor for services and, of course, a home in Uganda.", "zh": "和一位当地医生相比，他愿意并且能够为接受服务—当然还有一个在乌干达的家—支付更多的钱。", "index": 5305}
{"en": "Fewer remittances flowing into Uganda could mean less economic activity – or simply lower prices.", "zh": "流入乌干达的汇款减少意味着经济活动减少，或者就是价格降低。", "index": 5306}
{"en": "The financial meltdown in the US, which incubated the global crisis, is either coming under control or threatening to mutate into a new, more virulent form that could destroy not only America’s paper economy of trading and brokering, but also its real economy of goods and services.", "zh": "这场引发全球危机的美国金融崩溃不是被控制下来，就是有可能演变成新一波更致命的崩溃。 新一轮的崩溃将不止会摧毁美国由交易业务和经纪业务构建的虚拟经济（paper economy ） ， 还将搞跨货物和服务构成的实体经济。", "index": 5307}
{"en": "President Barack Obama, acting as if the latter scenario remains likely, is betting on large-scale government spending to prop up the real economy.", "zh": "总统巴拉克·奥巴马现在的行事风格就像后一种情况可能发生一样，他打赌大规模的政府开支将支撑起实体经济。", "index": 5308}
{"en": "If his administration succeeds, the chances that Africa will remain relatively unscathed will grow.", "zh": "如果他的政策成功了，就会相应增加非洲得以幸免的机会。", "index": 5309}
{"en": "Even if Obama fails, however, Africans should escape the worst of the global crisis, for both good reasons and bad.", "zh": "不过，即使奥巴马失败了，非洲也应该能逃出全球危机的最重灾区，其原因好坏参半。", "index": 5310}
{"en": "The good reasons have to do with African self-reliance and a growing awareness among scholars and policymakers that trade within the region – especially between urban and rural Africa – will ultimately deliver enormous benefits.", "zh": "好的原因关乎非洲的自力更生，而且学者和决策者们越来越意识到地区内的贸易，尤其是非洲的城乡贸易，最终将会带来巨大的收益。", "index": 5311}
{"en": "Another factor working in Africa’s favor is its private companies’ and consumers’ low dependence on borrowed money.", "zh": "另外一个对非洲有利的因素是这里的私人公司和消费者很少依赖借来的钱。", "index": 5312}
{"en": "People tend to pay cash for goods and services, however costly.", "zh": "人们倾向于用现金来支付货物和服务，不论有多贵。", "index": 5313}
{"en": "In the US, loans for cars and homes – loans that now aren’t being paid back – are the major factor behind the financial crisis.", "zh": "在美国，买房买车的贷款（那些现在收不回来的贷款）是金融危机后面的主要���素。", "index": 5314}
{"en": "In Africa, very few people borrow money for such purchases.", "zh": "而非洲只有极少数人借钱买这些东西。", "index": 5315}
{"en": "Africa’s cash-based economy has in the past constrained development.", "zh": "过去，非洲以现金为基础的经济阻碍了发展。", "index": 5316}
{"en": "After all, by allowing people to spend more than they have, borrowed money can fuel growth.", "zh": "毕竟，通过允许人们超前消费，借来的钱可以为经济助燃。", "index": 5317}
{"en": "But today, Africa’s pay-as-you-go practices are a powerful defense against financial contagion.", "zh": "但今天，非洲“现收现付”的习俗成了抵御金融危机蔓延的有力保障。", "index": 5318}
{"en": "Another way of looking at Africa’s paradoxical economic position is to admit that the region’s historical marginalization within the international financial system – so costly in times of global plenty – is proving to be an unexpected benefit when the wealthiest of the world are sick unto death.", "zh": "观察非洲自相矛盾的经济状况时，另一种方法是承认该地区历史上一直被全球金融体制边缘化，结果在世界繁荣的时候损失惨重。 然而在全球最富裕的国家病入膏肓的时候，这一点反而成了是一个出人意料的益处。", "index": 5319}
{"en": "Ensuring Africa’s Continued Rise", "zh": "确保非洲继续崛起", "index": 5320}
{"en": "LAGOS – Africa’s rise is in danger of faltering.", "zh": "拉各斯—非洲的崛起有夭折的危险。", "index": 5321}
{"en": "After years during which the continent’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 5%, global uncertainty, depressed commodity prices, and jittery external conditions are threatening to undermine decades of much-needed progress.", "zh": "在经历了多年年均5%的经济增长后，全球不确定性、大宗商品价格低迷以及不利的外部条件有可能破坏几十年来急需的进步。", "index": 5322}
{"en": "Ensuring the wealth and wellbeing of the continent’s residents will not be easy; but there is much that policymakers can do to put Africa back on an upward trajectory.", "zh": "确保非洲居民的财富和福祉绝非易事；但决策者可以想很多办法帮助非洲重回向上轨迹。", "index": 5323}
{"en": "First and foremost, policymakers must secure the financing needed to pursue sustainable development in an uncertain global environment.", "zh": "首先也是最重要的是，决策者必须确保所需要的资金在不确定的全球环境中追求可持续发展。", "index": 5324}
{"en": "The World Bank estimates that Africa will require at least $93 billion a year to fund its infrastructure needs alone.", "zh": "世界银行估计，光是基础设施资金，非洲每年就至少需要930亿美元。", "index": 5325}
{"en": "Climate-friendly, sustainable infrastructure will cost even more.", "zh": "气候友好型可持续基础设施的成本更高。", "index": 5326}
{"en": "And yet, as long as global growth remains weak, Africans cannot count on developed countries to fully honor their commitments to help attain the Sustainable Development Goals.", "zh": "但是，只要全球增长持续低迷，非洲人就无法指望发达国家充分兑现它们帮助实现可持续发展目标的承诺。", "index": 5327}
{"en": "Africa must rapidly develop its own resources, beginning by nearly doubling tax revenues.", "zh": "非洲必须迅速开发其自身的资源，第一步是将税收收入提高近一倍。", "index": 5328}
{"en": "Across Sub-Saharan Africa, tax revenues account for less than one-fifth of GDP, compared to more than one-third in OECD countries.", "zh": "在整个撒哈拉以南非洲，税收收入还不到GDP的五分之一，而经合组织国家这一比例高达三分之一以上。", "index": 5329}
{"en": "This means there is plenty of room for improvement.", "zh": "这意味着还有巨大的改善空间。", "index": 5330}
{"en": "From 1990 to 2004, for example, Ghana reformed its tax system and raised revenues from 11% to 22% of GDP.", "zh": "比如，从1999年到2004年，加纳改革了其税收制度，税收收入占GDP之比从11%增加到22 % 。", "index": 5331}
{"en": "Admittedly, such progress is difficult; in Nigeria, we saw an opportunity in raising non-oil tax revenues, but struggled to seize it.", "zh": "诚然，取得这样的进步是困难的；在尼日利亚，我们也看到了提高非石油税收收入的机会，但难以抓住它。", "index": 5332}
{"en": "Another source of domestic resources is the roughly $380 billion in pension assets held by just ten African countries.", "zh": "另一个国内资源是十个非洲国家所持有的大约3,800亿美元退休金资产。", "index": 5333}
{"en": "Policymakers should be leveraging these considerable sums.", "zh": "决策者应该利用这一数量可观的资金。", "index": 5334}
{"en": "At the same time, African countries will have to find a way to diversify their economies.", "zh": "与此同时，非洲国家必须找到办法实现经济多样化。", "index": 5335}
{"en": "Diversification requires investment in the future, in the form of education and well-developed infrastructure, including telecommunications, power, roads, rail, and water.", "zh": "多样化需要为未来投资，如教育和发达的基础设施（通讯、电力、公路、铁路、水道等 ） 。", "index": 5336}
{"en": "There are plenty of models to follow: Dubai, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Mexico, Indonesia, and South Korea are all admired by Africans as economies that managed to transform themselves.", "zh": "可以效仿的榜样很多：迪拜、新加坡、泰国、马来西亚、墨西哥、印度尼西亚和韩国都是非洲人民所景仰的成功实现转型的经济体。", "index": 5337}
{"en": "Dubai, for example, set out more than three decades ago to prepare for a future without oil.", "zh": "比如，迪拜三十多年前就开始为没有石油的未来做准备。", "index": 5338}
{"en": "The government implemented a step-by-step transformation of the country into a service economy, putting in place the infrastructure and incentives necessary to build up financial services, tourism, medical services, real estate, media, arts, and culture.", "zh": "迪拜政府实施了逐步的转型，将经济转变为服务经济，为金融服务、旅游、医疗服务、房地产、传媒、艺术和文化等行业提供必要的基础设施和激励。", "index": 5339}
{"en": "South Korea and Singapore, which had few natural resources on which to rely, are no less inspiring.", "zh": "韩国和新加坡都没有天然资源可以依赖，但它们的例子也十分鼓舞人心。", "index": 5340}
{"en": "The secret behind these countries’ success is relentlessly focused leaders, whether entrenched but benign dictators or democratically elected politicians with a shared vision of a broad-based economy.", "zh": "这些国家成功的背后是坚持不懈的领导人，不管是长期执政但温和的独裁者，还是对宽基础经济有着共同愿景的民选政客。", "index": 5341}
{"en": "Sub-Saharan Africa has paths for diversified growth that many of the trailblazers did not: value-added agriculture and agro industry, the processing of mineral resources, petrochemical complexes, manufacturing of durable and consumer goods, tourism and entertainment, and an emerging information-technology sector.", "zh": "撒哈拉以南非洲拥有许多先行者所不具备的多样化增长路径：增加值农业和农用工业、矿产资源、石化、持久品和消费品制造、旅游和娱乐，以及新兴的信息技术业。", "index": 5342}
{"en": "As the necessary measures for diversification are implemented, policymakers must ensure that the economic growth they are pursuing creates jobs.", "zh": "在实施必要的多样化措施的同时，决策者必须确保他们所追求的经济增长能创造就业。", "index": 5343}
{"en": "Sadly, this has not always been the case.", "zh": "悲哀的是，事实未必如此。", "index": 5344}
{"en": "Much of the recent growth has benefited only a few, leaving many behind – most notably young people and women.", "zh": "近期的大量增长只是肥了一小撮人，而将大部分人排斥在外 — — 特别是年轻人和女性。", "index": 5345}
{"en": "From 2006 to 2013, inequality rose in many of the continent’s most important economies, including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, and Rwanda.", "zh": "从2006年到2013年，非洲的许多最重要经济体，包括南非、尼日利亚、加纳、坦桑尼亚和卢旺达等，不平等性都有所上升。", "index": 5346}
{"en": "These were challenges that we were starting to address in Nigeria when I was finance minister.", "zh": "我担任尼日利亚财政部长时，已经开始解决一些挑战。", "index": 5347}
{"en": "We knew that we needed not just to secure growth, but also to improve the quality of that growth.", "zh": "我们知道我们不但需要确保增长，还需要改善增长的质量。", "index": 5348}
{"en": "To that end, policymakers must ensure that growth is channeled into sectors that create jobs, such as agriculture, manufacturing, and services.", "zh": "在这方面，决策者必须确保增长被引导到创造就业的部门，如农业、制造业和服务业。", "index": 5349}
{"en": "They may also have to redistribute income and strengthen social safety nets to protect better those at the bottom of the ladder.", "zh": "他们还必须重新分配收入和强化社会安全网，以更好地保护底层人群。", "index": 5350}
{"en": "Matching skills to job opportunities will be crucial.", "zh": "让技能与就业机会相匹配至关重要。", "index": 5351}
{"en": "Some 70% of Africa’s population is under 30, and the continent is home to half the world’s primary-school-age children who have been deprived of the opportunity to study.", "zh": "大约70%的非洲人口还不到30岁，非洲辍学小学适龄儿童占世界的一半。", "index": 5352}
{"en": "Offering Africa’s children basic reading, writing, and technology skills, as well as vocational, technical, and entrepreneurial training, must be a top priority.", "zh": "让非洲儿童拥有基本的阅读、写作和技术技能并获得职业、技术和创业培训必须成为重中之重。", "index": 5353}
{"en": "Weak health-care systems must also be strengthened in order to tackle the endemic diseases that sap productivity, such as malaria, as well as improving preparedness for outbreaks of deadly epidemics.", "zh": "拙劣的医疗体系也必须强化，以解决制约生产力的地方性疾病（如疟疾）以及改善对致死传染病爆发的预防工作。", "index": 5354}
{"en": "The stakes are high.", "zh": "兹事体大。", "index": 5355}
{"en": "The World Bank estimates the Ebola outbreak shrank the economies of Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia by 16%.", "zh": "世界银行估计，埃博拉疫情的爆发让塞拉利昂、几内亚和利比里亚经济萎缩了16 % 。", "index": 5356}
{"en": "As the world economy sputters, African countries will have to develop trade with one another.", "zh": "世界经济形势堪忧，非洲国家必须发展彼此之间的贸易。", "index": 5357}
{"en": "In 2013, African goods and services accounted for just 16% of trade within the continent, and just over 3% of world trade.", "zh": "2013年，非洲商品和服务只占非洲内部贸易的16%或世界贸易的3%略多。", "index": 5358}
{"en": "One problem is that most African countries produce the same type of commodities and trade them with very little value-added.", "zh": "一个问题是大部分非洲国家生产同类商品，并以极少量附加值进行贸易。", "index": 5359}
{"en": "Policymakers must encourage greater specialization; differentiated goods and services will add value and volume to trade.", "zh": "决策者必须鼓励提高专业化；多样化的商品和服务能够自增加贸易的价值和量。", "index": 5360}
{"en": "Logistics pose another obstacle to intra-African trade.", "zh": "物流是非洲内部贸易的另一障碍。", "index": 5361}
{"en": "Policymakers must make it easier to move goods across borders, by improving connectivity between countries and reducing bureaucratic hurdles and administrative costs.", "zh": "决策者必须改善国家之间的联系，降低官僚障碍和行政成本，从而让商品跨国运输更加便利。", "index": 5362}
{"en": "For example, road transport tariffs across Africa are estimated at $0.05-$0.13 per ton-kilometer, compared to the average of $0.01-$0.05 for all developing countries.", "zh": "比如，非洲公路运输关税据估计在每吨千米0.05—0.13美元，而所有发展中国家的平均水平为0.01—0.05美元。", "index": 5363}
{"en": "The Rift Valley Railway project, which will eventually link Mombasa on the Kenyan coast to Kampala in Uganda, is a good example of the benefits that investments in transportation could provide.", "zh": "最终将连接肯尼亚蒙巴萨海滨和乌干达坎帕拉的东非大裂谷铁路工程很好地说明了交通投资所能提供的好处。", "index": 5364}
{"en": "The African Development Bank estimates that it will double the volume of trade between the two countries, while reducing marginal costs by 30%.", "zh": "非洲开发银行估计它将让两国间贸易量翻一番，同时将边际成本降低30 % 。", "index": 5365}
{"en": "As they make these investments, policymakers must not forget that much of Africa’s recent growth can be credited to good macroeconomic policies and sound economic management.", "zh": "在做出这些投资的同时，决策者也绝不能忘记近期非洲的大部分增长要归因于良好的宏观经济政策和可靠的经济管理。", "index": 5366}
{"en": "Extending the continent’s rise will require strengthening the continent’s economic fundamentals.", "zh": "延长非洲的崛起需要强化非洲经济基本面。", "index": 5367}
{"en": "This means ensuring that prices in the economy are correct, starting with the exchange rate.", "zh": "这意味着确保经济中的价格是正确的。 首先是汇率。", "index": 5368}
{"en": "Some countries may need temporary controls to curb damaging capital outflows, but policymakers should aim for a market-based exchange rate and a solid plan for governing inflation, debt, foreign-exchange reserves, current accounts, and fiscal balances.", "zh": "一些国家也许需要暂时管制以遏制破坏性资本流出，但决策者应该将目标放在市场汇率和制定可靠的计划治理通货膨胀、债务、外汇储备、经常账户和财政平衡上。", "index": 5369}
{"en": "Africa’s potential can hardly be overstated.", "zh": "非洲的潜能是无穷的。", "index": 5370}
{"en": "The continent is well placed to build diversified economies based on low-carbon, sustainable infrastructure.", "zh": "非洲很适合构建基于低碳可持续基础设施的多样化经济。", "index": 5371}
{"en": "But policymakers cannot simply assume that Africa’s rise will continue.", "zh": "但决策者不能想当然地认为非洲能持续崛起。", "index": 5372}
{"en": "They must take the right steps to ensure that it does.", "zh": "他们必须采取正确的措施保证这一点。", "index": 5373}
{"en": "Africa’s Urban Farmers", "zh": "非洲的城市农夫们", "index": 5374}
{"en": "NAIROBI – When I met Eunice Wangari at a Nairobi coffee shop recently, I was surprised to hear her on her mobile phone, insistently asking her mother about the progress of a corn field in her home village, hours away from the big city.", "zh": "发自内罗毕 — — 当我最近在肯尼亚首都内罗毕一家咖啡厅遇见尤妮斯·瓦嘉里时，就对她打电话的内容感到惊讶无比。 她在手机里不断地询问她母亲家里玉米田的长势，而那个地方离首都还有几个小时车程。", "index": 5375}
{"en": "A nurse, Wangari counts on income from farming to raise money to buy more land – for more farming.", "zh": "作为一名护士，尤妮斯希望用种地所赚来的钱来购买更多土地 — — 然后再种更多的地。", "index": 5376}
{"en": "Even though Wangari lives in Kenya’s capital, she is able to reap hundreds of dollars a year in profit from cash crops grown with the help of relatives.", "zh": "虽然生活在肯尼亚首都，但尤妮斯每年都能在亲戚帮助下从经济作物种植中获利数百美元。", "index": 5377}
{"en": "Her initial stake – drawn from her nursing wages of about $350 a month – has long since been recovered.", "zh": "而启动资金则是她当护士每月约350美元工资 — — 不过这笔本钱早就收回来了。", "index": 5378}
{"en": "Wangari is one of thousands of urban workers in Kenya – and one of hundreds of thousands, even millions, across Africa – who are increasing their incomes through absentee agriculture.", "zh": "尤妮斯是成千上万名生活在肯尼亚的“城市农夫”中的一员 — — 而在非洲大陆则有数十万到数百万这样的人 — — 他们靠“远程”务农来增加自己的收入。", "index": 5379}
{"en": "With prices for basic foodstuffs at their highest levels in decades, many urbanites feel well rewarded by farming.", "zh": "由于基础食品的价格达到了几十年中来的最高水平，许多城里人都觉得靠务农来挣钱还是报酬颇丰的。", "index": 5380}
{"en": "Absentee agriculture also bolsters national pride – and pride in traditional diets – by specializing in vegetables specific to the region.", "zh": "远程务农也因此增强了人们的民族自豪感，同时也并通过对某些地区特产蔬菜的关注而提升了对传统饮食的自豪感。", "index": 5381}
{"en": "“For too long our country has been flooded with imported food and Westernized foods,” Wangari says. “This is our time to fight back – and grow our own.”", "zh": "“进口食品和西式食物已经在我们国家泛滥太久了 ” ， 尤妮斯说 ， “ 现在是我们发起反击，种植自己的食物的时候了。", "index": 5382}
{"en": "Across Africa, political leaders, long dismissive of rural concerns, have awakened to the importance of agriculture and the role that educated people, even those living in major cities, can play in farming.", "zh": "在经历了对农村地区的长期不重视之后，整个非洲大陆的领导人都悟到了农业的重要性，并意识到那些受过教育的人们，即使是在主要城市里谋生，也可以在农业中扮演一个角色。", "index": 5383}
{"en": "In Nigeria, former President Olusegun Obasanjo has a huge diversified farm and has pushed for policies to help absentee farmers prosper.", "zh": "在尼日利亚，前总统奥卢塞贡·奥巴桑乔就拥有一个从事多种经营的巨大农场，并推行一系列政策来帮助那些远程农夫成功创业。", "index": 5384}
{"en": "In Uganda, Vice President Gilbert Bukenya routinely travels the country, promoting higher-value farming, such as dairy production.", "zh": "在乌干达，副总统吉尔伯特·布坎尼亚在全国例行走访途中也着力推广更高价值的农业经营方式，比如奶制品生产。", "index": 5385}
{"en": "Perhaps the most visible political support for absentee agriculture is in Liberia, a small West African country where civil war destroyed agriculture, rendering the population dependent on food imports, even today.", "zh": "对远距离农业给予最明确政治支持的国家大概当属利比里亚。 这个西非小国的农业在内战中遭遇重大打击，导致国家至今依然需要依赖进口食品来养活整个人口。", "index": 5386}
{"en": "President Johnson-Sirleaf, recognizing that educated people could contribute much to an agriculture revival, launched her “Back to the Soil” campaign in June 2008 in large part to encourage urban dwellers to farm.", "zh": "当约翰逊-瑟利夫总统意识到受过良好教育的人们能够为农业振兴贡献很大力量时，她随即于2008年6月启动了“回归沃土”活动，尤其是鼓励城市居民投身农业。", "index": 5387}
{"en": "To be sure, absentee farming by elites and educated urban workers can’t solve all of Africa’s urgent food needs.", "zh": "有一点可以确定，那就是由精英和受过教育的城市人所构建的远程农业无法解决当前非洲所有迫在眉睫的食品问题。", "index": 5388}
{"en": "Moreover, absentee farmers face unexpected problems.", "zh": "此外，这些远程农业从业者们还会遇到意想不到的难题。", "index": 5389}
{"en": "Because they don’t visit their fields often, they rely heavily on relatives and friends.  When I decided to farm wheat for the first time this spring on leased land in my childhood village, my mother agreed to supervise plowing, planting, and harvesting.", "zh": "因为无法经常去地里查看，他们很大程度上只能依赖自己的亲戚朋友去照看田地。 今年春天，当我在从小长大的乡村里租了一块地并决定种一些小麦时，我母亲答应帮我定期查看播种、浇水和施肥的情况。", "index": 5390}
{"en": "Without her help, I might not have farmed at all.", "zh": "如果没有她的帮助，我也许根本无法进行耕作。", "index": 5391}
{"en": "Even with mother’s help, I have worries.", "zh": "但即使在母亲的帮助下我依然有诸多担忧。", "index": 5392}
{"en": "Although I grew up around wheat fields, my knowledge of farming is thin.", "zh": "虽然自小在麦田周围长大，可我关于农耕的知识却十分贫瘠。", "index": 5393}
{"en": "Fertilizer and spraying were both more expensive than I thought.", "zh": "肥料和杀虫剂的价格都比我想象的要贵。", "index": 5394}
{"en": "While my wheat stalks are sprouting on schedule, I now fear that at harvest time – in November – prices will fall and I won’t recoup my costs.", "zh": "当一棵棵麦苗正按部就班地发芽时，我却开始担心到了11月收获时小麦价格会跌，那我就连本都收不回来了。", "index": 5395}
{"en": "One key tool is the mobile phone.", "zh": "这时最关键的工具就是手机。", "index": 5396}
{"en": "My hopes for success are buoyed by my ability to call my mother inexpensively and discuss the farm.", "zh": "我重新浮现出对成功的希冀，因为我能给母亲打电话同她商量农场的事情，电话费也不贵。", "index": 5397}
{"en": "We even decided over the phone what kind of pesticide to use and which tractor company to hire.", "zh": "我们甚至在通话中决定用哪种杀虫剂以及雇佣哪家拖拉机公司。", "index": 5398}
{"en": "Because they know both the tastes of fellow city dwellers and rural conditions, many urban farmers are succeeding.", "zh": "由于这些城市农夫对城市居民的喜好以及农村的状况都很熟悉，所以其中许多人都取得了成功。", "index": 5399}
{"en": "In fact, some city dwellers don’t even bother with acquiring land or gaining distant help. Certain crops can be grown in their own homes.", "zh": "事实上，一些城市居民根本无需担心购买土地或者获取远程协助的问题，因为一些特定种类的农作物在他们自己家中就可种植。", "index": 5400}
{"en": "James Memusi, an accountant, grows mushrooms in a spare bedroom, selling them to nearby hotels and supermarkets.", "zh": "会计师詹姆斯·麦姆锡就利用家里一间空卧室种植蘑菇，并将收获卖给临近的饭店和超市。", "index": 5401}
{"en": "Nevertheless, most people living in Africa’s cities have access to land in the countryside, which is why Liberia’s government rightly highlights the potential for farm expansion.", "zh": "不过大多数住在非洲城市里的人都有办法在农村弄到土地，这就是为什么利比里亚政府如此肯定地强调农业的拓展潜力。", "index": 5402}
{"en": "In a new advertising campaign rolled out this summer, the authorities declared, “The soil is a bank; invest in it.”", "zh": "在今年夏天发起的一项新运动的推广中，官方就是这样宣传的 ： “ 土地就是座银行，往里面投资吧！ ”", "index": 5403}
{"en": "In Liberia, the main push is to reduce imports of staples such as rice and tomatoes.", "zh": "在利比里亚，主要动力是为了降低类似大米和西红柿等主食的进口额。", "index": 5404}
{"en": "In more prosperous countries, African elites are motivated by a complex interplay of national pride, dietary concerns, and the pursuit of profit.", "zh": "而在一些更为富裕的国家，非洲的精英们被相互作用的复杂原因驱动着，这些原因之中既掺杂国家自豪感和对食品短缺的担忧，又出于利益的驱使。", "index": 5405}
{"en": "In Zambia, for example, Sylva Banda ignited a craze for authentic traditional meals two decades ago with a chain of popular restaurants.", "zh": "比方说希尔维亚·班达20年前在赞比亚开了一系列广受喜爱的餐馆，用真正的本地菜引领起一股时尚潮流。", "index": 5406}
{"en": "Now, ordinary Lusakans want to cook similar meals in their own homes, driving demand for farmers who produce such delicacies as dried pumpkin, “black jack” leaves, and fresh Okra.", "zh": "而现在，普通卢萨卡市民也想要在家中自己烹饪相似的菜肴，这就需要越来越多的农民们去生产更多的精细食品，比如南瓜干 、 “ 黑杰克”菜叶和新鲜秋葵。", "index": 5407}
{"en": "Similarly, in Nairobi, Miringo Kinyanjui, another woman entrepreneur, is supplying unrefined – and more nutritious – maize and wheat flour.", "zh": "类似的，在内罗毕有一位名叫米林格·金亚朱尼的女企业家正在生产更有营养的粗磨玉米面和小麦粉。", "index": 5408}
{"en": "In another move to distinguish her ingredients from Western versions, Kinyanjui also sells through grocery stores flour flavored with Amarathan, a green vegetable that grows around Kenya.", "zh": "而将她供应的食品同西方食品进一步区分开来的则是金亚朱尼同样通过食品店售卖一种“阿玛拉桑”口味的面粉，而“阿玛拉桑”是一种在肯尼亚全国都有种植的绿色蔬菜类植物。", "index": 5409}
{"en": "The revival of traditional foods has attracted the attention of large multinational corporations.", "zh": "传统食品的重新流行吸引了许多跨国公司的注意。", "index": 5410}
{"en": "Last year, Unilever’s Kenyan branch ran a “taste our culture” campaign in support of its line of traditional East African herbs and spices.", "zh": "就在去年，联合利华公司驻肯尼亚的子公司就启动了一项“品尝我们的文化”活动来推广他们混合了东非香草和香料的一系列产品。", "index": 5411}
{"en": "Such campaigns go hand-in-hand with expanded farming, because sellers of these foods prefer nearby growers – even if these growers increasingly live in the city.", "zh": "这些活动都与农业规模的扩大紧密相关，因为这些卖家都更偏爱临近的种植者，即便这些“农夫”越来越都是些城里人。", "index": 5412}
{"en": "Building Africa’s Scientific Talent", "zh": "培养非洲的科学人才", "index": 5413}
{"en": "TORONTO – Ten years ago, South African physicist Neil Turok made a bold prediction: the world’s next Einstein will be from Africa.", "zh": "发自多伦多 — — 十年前，南非物理学家尼尔·图罗克（Neil Turok）做出了一个大胆的预言：下一位爱因斯坦将来自于非洲。", "index": 5414}
{"en": "A decade later, it is worth considering whether the continent is any closer to finding the next global genius.", "zh": "如今十年已过，也是时候思考一下非洲大陆是否更接近于诞生下一个全球性天才了。", "index": 5415}
{"en": "Statistically, there is indeed a high probability that it will happen.", "zh": "从统计上来说这确实很有可能。", "index": 5416}
{"en": "By 2050, 40% of the world’s young people will be African.", "zh": "到2050年，世界上40％的年轻人将是非洲人。", "index": 5417}
{"en": "By virtue of demographics alone, it stands to reason that Africa is destined to generate prodigies in science or technology.", "zh": "仅就人口结构统计数据来看，非洲注定会产生众多科学技术方面的神童。", "index": 5418}
{"en": "Africans have led the world in science before.", "zh": "非洲人曾一度在科学上领先世界。", "index": 5419}
{"en": "In fact, some of humanity’s greatest innovations – from vaccines to brain surgery – were pioneered by Africans.", "zh": "事实上，一些人类最伟大的创新 — — 从疫苗到脑手术 — — 都是由非洲人开创的。", "index": 5420}
{"en": "One of the oldest measuring devices ever used, the Lebombo Bone, was carved by people believed to have lived some 35,000 years ago in modern-day eSwatini (Swaziland).", "zh": "迄今为止发现的最古老测量设备之一列彭波骨（Lebombo bone）被考证为大约3.5万年前生活在当今伊斯瓦蒂尼（原名斯威士兰）的人类所造。", "index": 5421}
{"en": "In other words, mathematics itself is an African invention.", "zh": "换句话说，数学本身就是非洲的发明。", "index": 5422}
{"en": "For decades, science and policy luminaries like Calestous Juma, a global advocate for science-driven sustainable development, and Wangari Maathai, an environmental activist and Nobel laureate, championed Africa’s science agenda.", "zh": "几十年来，众多科学和政策杰出人物 — — 比如以科学为导向的可持续发展的全球倡导者卡莱斯图斯·尤马（Calestous Juma）以及环境事务活动家和诺贝尔奖获得者旺加里·马塔伊（Wangari Maathai ） — —都支持非洲的科学议程。", "index": 5423}
{"en": "With these visionaries now gone, Africa needs a new brain trust to inspire future generations of ethical and public-spirited researchers.", "zh": "随着这些有远见者纷纷离世，非洲需要一批新智囊团来激励未来一代具备道德和公益精神的研究人员。", "index": 5424}
{"en": "But how do we ensure Africa discovers, supports, and develops innovative, game-changing scientists?", "zh": "但是我们如何确保非洲能去发现，支持和培养出那些改变游戏规则的创新科学家？", "index": 5425}
{"en": "The missing element has been an African education system that supports innovation in research, and that provides the next African revolutionary scientist with the training and support he or she needs – in Africa.", "zh": "而缺失的因素其实是一套支持研究创新，可以 — — 而且是在非洲本地 — — 为下一位革命性非洲科学家提供他或她所需要的培训和支持的非洲教育体系。", "index": 5426}
{"en": "Across the continent, there is a growing consensus among governments that education and research in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) is critical for economic growth and development.", "zh": "纵观整个非洲大陆，各国政府已经日渐形成了共识，认定科学，技术，工程和数学的教育和研究对经济增长和发展至关重要。", "index": 5427}
{"en": "At the moment, however, too many of Africa’s young researchers see no option but to go abroad for school and work.", "zh": "然而目前非洲的许多年轻研究人员别无选择，只能出国学习和工作。", "index": 5428}
{"en": "That can change, but only with concrete investments in homegrown talent.", "zh": "这个局面可以被改变，但只能通过对本土人才的切实投资来改变。", "index": 5429}
{"en": "This means rethinking the entire education system in Africa.", "zh": "这意味着要对整个非洲教育体系进行重新思考。", "index": 5430}
{"en": "Three priorities stand out.", "zh": "而其中有三个事项必须优先解决", "index": 5431}
{"en": "First, African countries need to fix the knowledge pipeline.", "zh": "首先，非洲国家需要修复知识输送管道。", "index": 5432}
{"en": "That means investing in teacher training, improved learning outcomes, retention of girls in STEM courses, supporting research earlier in university, helping young researchers through so-called sandwich programs, establishing university-private sector labs on campus, and more.", "zh": "这意味着投资教师培训，提高学习成果，保留科技工程学科中的女生，为大学研究的初级阶段提供支持，通过所谓的三明治计划帮扶年轻研究人员，在校园内建立大学-私营部门实验室等多项举措。", "index": 5433}
{"en": "Second, Africa needs indigenous knowledge creation.", "zh": "其次，非洲需要实现立足本地的知识创造。", "index": 5434}
{"en": "This requires facilitating both fundamental and applied research and creating the necessary infrastructure for the dissemination of research outcomes.", "zh": "这需要同时促进基础和应用研究，并为研究成果的传播创造必要的基础设施。", "index": 5435}
{"en": "This could include making more funding available to researchers and research institutions, as well as promoting open sources for knowledge sharing.", "zh": "这将包括为研究人员和研究机构提供更多资金以及推动开源性的知识共享。", "index": 5436}
{"en": "The third priority is putting knowledge into practice.", "zh": "第三个优先事项是将知识付诸实践。", "index": 5437}
{"en": "This could involve making scientific information accessible to the general public and innovators, and supporting public-private partnerships to pilot, demonstrate, and apply research outcomes, thereby creating jobs addressing public problems.", "zh": "这可能涉及向公众和创新者提供科学信息，并支持公私伙伴关系去试验，展示和应用相关研究成果，从而创造一批专门应对公共问题的就业岗位。", "index": 5438}
{"en": "A good example is Zipline, which deploys drone technology to deliver blood transfusions to remote areas of Rwanda.", "zh": "对此滑索公司（Zipline）就是一个很好的例子，它采用无人机向卢旺达的偏远地区输送血液。", "index": 5439}
{"en": "To deploy this technology, which is based on American research but piloted in-country, Zipline signed agreements with the aviation authority and the ministry of health, among others, and a public-private partnership was set up to fund the program.", "zh": "为了部署这项基于美国研究但在卢旺达试行的技术，滑索与航空管理局和卫生部等签署了协议并建立了公私合作伙伴关系以资助该计划。", "index": 5440}
{"en": "After successfully deploying the technology in Rwanda, it is currently being rolled out in Ghana.", "zh": "该技术在卢旺达成功部署后目前正被引入加纳。", "index": 5441}
{"en": "Zipline has saved hundreds of lives and demonstrated the potential of technology transfer with large-scale impact.", "zh": "它挽救了数百人的生命，并展示了具备大规模影响力的技术转让所能发挥出来的潜力。", "index": 5442}
{"en": "The Next Einstein Forum (NEF), an initiative of the African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) and the brainchild of Turok, supported partly by the Mastercard Foundation, is demonstrating that Africa produces strong scientific talent.", "zh": "由非洲数学科学研究所倡导建立的下一位爱因斯坦论坛（The Next Einstein Forum ） — —也是图罗克的创意并由万事达基金会提供部分支持 — — 表明非洲能产生出高端科学人才。", "index": 5443}
{"en": "The NEF focuses on convening Africa’s innovators to highlight breakthrough discoveries and catalyze scientific collaboration for human development.", "zh": "论坛致力于召集非洲的创新者去彰显突破性发现并促进人类发展方面的科学合作。", "index": 5444}
{"en": "Since the first cohort of NEF Fellows was selected in 2015, the program has highlighted the contributions of young African researchers who are working to tackle some of the world’s toughest scientific and technological challenges.", "zh": "自2015年甄选出第一批论坛研究员以来，论坛已经将许多致力于解决世界最棘手科技挑战的非洲年轻研究人员的贡献宣扬于世。", "index": 5445}
{"en": "NEF’s current cohort includes Somalia’s Abdigani Diriye, who created a blockchain-enabled lending platform in Kenya and was recently named one of Africa’s top 30 innovators; Nigeria’s Peter Ngene, whose work on nanotechnologies is being used to improve renewable energy and who also recently created a hydrogen-based eye sensor that detects lactose intolerance; and Vinet Coetzee of South Africa, whose research in non-invasive measures of health has led to a patent application for a device that could detect malaria.", "zh": "论坛目前的研究队伍包括来自索马里的阿布迪加尼·迪里耶（Abdigani Diriye ） ， 他在肯尼亚创建了一个以区块链为基础的贷款平台，最近被评为非洲30大创新者之一；来自尼日利亚的彼得·涅讷（Peter Ngene ） ， 他在纳米技术方面的工作正用于改进可再生能源，最近还创造了一种能够检测乳糖不耐受症的氢基眼传感器；还有南非的文奈特·科特兹（Vinet Coetzee ） ， 他在非侵入性健康测量方面的研究已经产生了一项疟疾检测装置的专利。", "index": 5446}
{"en": "With so many complex issues vying for attention today, Africa will need innovative education and research models.", "zh": "在有许多复杂问题都要得到关注的今天，非洲需要整套创新的教育和研究模式。", "index": 5447}
{"en": "But as long as the NEF and similar efforts continue to nurture the continent’s brightest young scientists and tackle systemic issues like funding, mobility, and research infrastructure, the odds are good that those leading the search for solutions will be the very people Turok predicted.", "zh": "但只要下一位爱因斯坦论坛和类似的项目继续对非洲大陆那些最聪明的年轻科学家加以培养并解决诸如资金，流动性和研究基础设施等系统性问题，那么解决方案研究的学术带头人中就很可能涌现出图罗克预言中的下一位爱因斯坦。", "index": 5448}
{"en": "Improving African Women’s Health Through Financial Inclusion", "zh": "通过金融包容改善非洲女性健康", "index": 5449}
{"en": "ACCRA – In late October, the World Health Organization’s Regional Office for Africa signed an agreement with the United Nations International Telecommunication Union (ITU).", "zh": "阿克拉—去年10月，世界卫生组织非洲地区办公室与联合国国际电信联盟（ITU）签署了一份协议。", "index": 5450}
{"en": "The aim of the unlikely partnership is to encourage the use of digital services “to save lives and improve people’s health.”", "zh": "这一看似不可能的合作关系的目标是鼓励使用数字服务“拯救生命、改善人民健康 ” 。", "index": 5451}
{"en": "But perhaps the pact’s most innovative feature is the vow to merge financial inclusion strategies with modern health-care delivery.", "zh": "但也许该协议最具创新性的部分在于它承诺将金融包容策略与现代医疗服务相结合。", "index": 5452}
{"en": "Financial inclusion is a proven pathway to improving people’s health, especially the health of women in developing countries.", "zh": "金融包容是证实了的改善人民健康的有效方法，特别是发展中国家女性的健康。", "index": 5453}
{"en": "Women who can easily access bank accounts or cash payment options tend to invest more in their businesses and families.", "zh": "能够轻松获得银行账户或现金支付选项的女性，往往会为她们的企业和家庭投入更多。", "index": 5454}
{"en": "In turn, they live healthier, more satisfying lives.", "zh": "反过来，她们也生活得更健康、更满足。", "index": 5455}
{"en": "Yet, too often, initiatives like the one signed in October focus on one or the other – e-health or financial products like insurance.", "zh": "但是，常常发生的情况是，类似10月份签署的协议这样的计划，总是关注其中之一 — — 电子健康（e-health）或金融产品（如保险 ） 。", "index": 5456}
{"en": "Because Africans’ ability to earn and save money can be the difference between good care and no care at all, this represents a missed opportunity to help patients and build more resilient communities.", "zh": "非洲人赚钱和存钱的能力决定了他能获得好医疗还是根本看不起病，因此这是一个被错过的帮助患者、构建恢复力更强的社会的机会。", "index": 5457}
{"en": "The cost of this choice is disproportionately high for Africa’s women.", "zh": "这一选择给非洲女性造成的代价尤其高昂。", "index": 5458}
{"en": "In Nigeria, for example, 400,000 women live with obstetric fistula, a disabling condition often caused by complications in childbirth.", "zh": "比如，在尼日利亚，有400,000女性身患产瘘，这是一种致残的分娩并发症。", "index": 5459}
{"en": "In Tanzania, some 8,000 women die annually during pregnancy or delivery; most of these deaths could be prevented.", "zh": "在坦桑尼亚，每年都有大约8,000女性死于妊娠或分娩；这些死亡大部分是可以避免的。", "index": 5460}
{"en": "And, across the continent, women’s life expectancy at birth is just 58 years, compared to more than 80 years in developed countries.", "zh": "而就整个非洲而言，女性出生寿命预期只有58年，而发达国家高达80多年。", "index": 5461}
{"en": "Progress is being made to connect women’s health solutions and financial inclusion.", "zh": "人们正在努力将女性健康方案与金融包容联系起来，并在不断取得进步。", "index": 5462}
{"en": "At a recent conference in Dar es Salaam, experts from the technology and financial services sector joined investors, philanthropists, and development specialists to devise ways to make finance work for Africa’s women.", "zh": "在达累斯萨拉姆举行的最新会议上，来自科技和金融服务业的专家与投资者、慈善家和发展专家一起为非洲女性制定金融工作方法。", "index": 5463}
{"en": "Through programs like these, development experts can advocate for digital solutions as a means of social and financial empowerment.", "zh": "通过类似于此的计划，发展专家能够宣传作为社会和金融赋权手段的数字方案。", "index": 5464}
{"en": "Unfortunately, cooperation like the pact signed in October is the exception, rather than the norm.", "zh": "不幸的是，类似于10月所签署的协议的合作计划只是例外，而不是常例。", "index": 5465}
{"en": "Banks, regulators, finance ministries, and telecommunications companies all frequently gather to consider financial inclusion without the local and global health community.", "zh": "银行、监管者、财政部门和电信企业都在频繁开会讨论金融包容性，但并没有将本地和全球医疗界包括进去。", "index": 5466}
{"en": "This must change if we are to build more inclusive platforms for African patients and clients.", "zh": "如果我们想要为非洲患者和客户建立更加包容性的平台，这一点必须改变。", "index": 5467}
{"en": "The first step is to identify missed opportunities.", "zh": "第一步是认识错失的机会。", "index": 5468}
{"en": "A big one stems from the disparate approaches to bringing financial services and digitized health care to rural parts of Africa.", "zh": "一个大机会是采取不同方法将金融服务和数字化医疗服务推广到非洲农村地区。", "index": 5469}
{"en": "At the moment, banks and mobile network operators are working to expand their digital banking services to unbanked and under-banked clients.", "zh": "目前，银行和移动网络运营商正致力于扩大数字银行服务，以覆盖没有银行账户或银行服务不足的客户。", "index": 5470}
{"en": "At the same time, community health workers (CHWs) are operating in these regions to prevent, treat, and refer patients to clinics.", "zh": "与此同时，社区卫生工作者（CHW）正在这些地区展开预防、治疗和分诊工作。", "index": 5471}
{"en": "Combining these efforts makes sense, because both initiatives rely heavily on trust.", "zh": "将这些措施相结合非常有意义，因为两项计划都非常依赖信任。", "index": 5472}
{"en": "Through pre-established networks, CHWs could augment their e-health offerings with financial products, like mobile cash payment systems.", "zh": "通过预先构建的网络，CHW能够利用金融产品，如移动现金支付系统来扩大电子健康服务覆盖面。", "index": 5473}
{"en": "Broadening digital disease management and access to health information to include financial wellbeing would create natural synergies.", "zh": "扩大数字疾病管理和健康信息普及以纳入金融福祉能产生自然的协同效应。", "index": 5474}
{"en": "While there are some concerns that adding responsibilities to CHWs could undermine health-care quality, a fragmented approach to prosperity is even more damaging.", "zh": "有人担心增加CHW的责任会拖累医疗质量，但碎片化的繁荣观弊端更大。", "index": 5475}
{"en": "Once opportunities for expansion are identified, other issues will need to be addressed before women’s health and financial inclusion programs can be widened.", "zh": "在认识到扩大的机会后，在女性健康和金融包容性计划得到推广之前，还需要解决其他问题。", "index": 5476}
{"en": "For starters, a lack of sex-disaggregated data makes it difficult to draft policies based on health quality and financial need.", "zh": "首先，缺乏按性别区分的数据导致难以根据健康质量和金融需要来制定政策。", "index": 5477}
{"en": "Although some countries, such as Burundi and Senegal, are working to improve their gender-specific data collection, a broader, more coordinated push is needed.", "zh": "尽管布隆迪和塞内加尔等国家正致力于改善具体的性别数据收集，但仍需要范围更广、更具协作性的计划。", "index": 5478}
{"en": "Raising the region’s financial literacy will be another challenge.", "zh": "增进地区的金融知识是另一项挑战。", "index": 5479}
{"en": "The ability to understand and execute matters of personal finance is the weakest link in transforming women’s opportunities through financial inclusion.", "zh": "理解和执行个人金融事务的能力是通过金融包容改变女性机会的链条上的最弱一环。", "index": 5480}
{"en": "Moreover, financial literacy is a pre-requisite for the rollout of financing initiatives, such as programs that support women-led small and micro-enterprises.", "zh": "此外，金融知识是启动融资计划 — — 如支持女性领导的小微企业 — — 的先决条件。", "index": 5481}
{"en": "If financial literacy levels can be raised, women can access resources such as land and credit, tools that hold the keys to business development, social mobility, and personal growth.", "zh": "如果能够提升金融知识水平，女性就能获得土地和信用等资源，这些工具是商业发展、社会流动性和个人成长的关键。", "index": 5482}
{"en": "Progress has been made in leveling the playing field, but these gains must be sustained.", "zh": "在构建公平竞技场方面，我们取得了一些进步，但必须保持势头。", "index": 5483}
{"en": "The agreement between the WHO and the ITU will help promote wealth creation in parts of Africa where access to health care and financial services is lacking.", "zh": "世卫组织和ITU的协议有助于促进缺乏医疗和金融服务的非洲地区的财富创造。", "index": 5484}
{"en": "To maintain this momentum, deeper commitments are needed, especially from the global health community.", "zh": "要保持这一势头，需要更深度的承诺，特别是来自全球医疗界的承诺。", "index": 5485}
{"en": "But, however African governments proceed in digitizing their health and financial services offerings, women’s needs must remain at the center of any solution.", "zh": "但是，不论非洲各国政府如何推进健康和金融服务数字化，女性的需要都必须作为他们的方案的核心。", "index": 5486}
{"en": "Closing the Youth Apathy Gap", "zh": "填补青年冷漠缺口", "index": 5487}
{"en": "NAIROBI – When the United Nations’ member countries adopted the Sustainable Development Goals two years ago, they committed themselves to reduce substantially “the proportion of youth not in employment, education, or training.”", "zh": "内罗毕—两年前，联合国成员国采纳可持续发展目标（SDG）时，它们自我承诺要可持续地减少“被排除在就业、教育和培训之外的青年的比例 ” 。", "index": 5488}
{"en": "That commitment will be virtually impossible to fulfill, unless political participation by young people increases considerably.", "zh": "除非年轻人的政治参与能够显著增长，否则这一承诺几乎不可能实现。", "index": 5489}
{"en": "Young people are critical to progress.", "zh": "年轻人是进步的关键。", "index": 5490}
{"en": "As US President Barack Obama put it in a 2015 speech in Nairobi, “no country can achieve its full potential unless it draws on the talents of all its people.”", "zh": "美国总统巴拉克在2015 年的内罗毕演讲中指出 ， “ 除非一个国家能够依赖全体人民的才华，否则它就无法实现全部潜能。", "index": 5491}
{"en": "And youth now comprise a large share of those people – 18% of the world’s population, to be precise.", "zh": "”如今，青年构成了这些人民中的很大一部分 — — 准确地说，他们占据了世界人口的18 % 。", "index": 5492}
{"en": "The share is even larger in much of the developing world.", "zh": "在大部分发展中国家，这个比例还会更高。", "index": 5493}
{"en": "The median age of Africa’s population is just 19.5 years.", "zh": "非洲人口的中位年龄只有19.5岁。", "index": 5494}
{"en": "Given their numbers, not to mention rising education and literacy rates, young people can make a world of difference, shaping political discourse and electoral outcomes.", "zh": "从这些数据看 — — 更不用说不断提高的教育水平和识字率了 — — 年轻人能够改变世界，影响政治进程和选举结果。", "index": 5495}
{"en": "But that requires them to be engaged and active.", "zh": "但这需要他们参与和活跃。", "index": 5496}
{"en": "In the United Kingdom, most young people wish to remain in the European Union.", "zh": "在英国，大部分年轻人想要留在欧盟。", "index": 5497}
{"en": "As a Lord Ashcroft poll showed, 73% of those aged 18-24, and 62% of those aged 25-34, voted accordingly in last year’s referendum.", "zh": "阿什克罗夫特勋爵（Lord Ashcroft）调查表明，73%的18—24岁群体，以及62%的25—34岁群体，在去年的全民公决中投票赞成留欧。", "index": 5498}
{"en": "But most young British did not actually show up to cast their votes, allowing the UK’s older, predominantly pro-Brexit cohorts to win the day.", "zh": "但大部分英国年轻人实际上并没有行使投票权，这使得英国年长者 — — 他们大多支持退欧 — — 赢得了胜利。", "index": 5499}
{"en": "Presumably having learned their lesson from the Brexit referendum, young Britons contributed to an unexpected victory for Labour in June’s snap general election.", "zh": "想必是从退欧公投中汲取了教训，英国年轻人在6月份的临时大选中帮助工党赢得了出人意料的胜利。", "index": 5500}
{"en": "In Kenya’s presidential election, held last month, 51% of registered voters were below the age of 35 years.", "zh": "在上个月举行的肯尼亚总统选举中，51%的注册选民年龄低于35岁。", "index": 5501}
{"en": "Although the Supreme Court annulled the results and ordered a fresh vote, owing to electoral irregularities and illegalities, large numbers of young people are likely to turn out again.", "zh": "尽管最高法院因为选举违规和违法行为推翻了结果，勒令重新投票，但大量年轻人可能会再次走向投票箱。", "index": 5502}
{"en": "Unfortunately, Kenya is the exception that proves the rule.", "zh": "不幸的是，肯尼亚只是一个证明了规则的例外。", "index": 5503}
{"en": "Political apathy among young people, like that seen in the Brexit referendum, remains pervasive worldwide.", "zh": "年轻人的政治冷漠 — — 就像英国退欧公投所表现的那样 — — 仍然在全球范围内普遍存在。", "index": 5504}
{"en": "In many regions of Africa, for example, young people are disillusioned with politics, convinced that wealthy older people will always prevail and advance their own interests, often at the expense of younger generations.", "zh": "比如，在非洲大部，年轻人对政治早已幻灭，认定胜者永远是富有的年长者，他们推动自己的利益，牺牲年轻一代的利益。", "index": 5505}
{"en": "This sense of disempowerment is threatening to turn the developing world’s youth bulge into a youth curse – with serious potential consequences.", "zh": "这种失权（disempowerment）感有可能让发展中世界的青年膨胀（youth bulge，即青年占人口多数的现象）演变为青年诅咒 — — 并带来严重的潜在后果。", "index": 5506}
{"en": "The Arab Spring uprisings, which led to violence and instability in most affected countries, were fueled largely by desperate young people demanding rights and opportunities.", "zh": "阿拉伯之春暴乱导致了大部分受影响国家陷入暴力和动荡，其背后的主要推动力正是绝望的年轻人要求权利和机会。", "index": 5507}
{"en": "To avoid such outcomes, young people need to be part of their countries’ political life, able to advance their own vision of the future.", "zh": "要避免这样的结果，年轻人必须成为国家政治生活的一部分，能够推动他们自己的未来愿景。", "index": 5508}
{"en": "As young Kenyans repeated during the recent election campaign, “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu.”", "zh": "就像肯尼亚年轻人在最近的选战中一再强调的 ， “ 不入庙堂，便为鱼肉。 ”", "index": 5509}
{"en": "So what can be done to increase political awareness and participation among young people?", "zh": "那么，如何提高年轻人的政治意识和参与呢？", "index": 5510}
{"en": "In Kenya, government efforts have focused on the creation of three institutions: the Ministry of Public Service, Youth, and Gender Affairs, the Youth Enterprise Development Fund, and the National Youth Council.", "zh": "在肯尼亚，政府措施的重点是建立了三个机构：公共服务、青年和性别事务部、青年创业发展基金，以及国家青年委员会。", "index": 5511}
{"en": "Though somewhat dysfunctional, these institutions have helped to empower Kenyan youth, driving the high election turnout last month.", "zh": "尽管这些机构功能未必完善，但仍有助于赋权肯尼亚青年，为上个月选举的高投票率立下了功劳。", "index": 5512}
{"en": "But perhaps the most effective approach to closing the apathy gap focuses on initiatives led by young people themselves.", "zh": "但填补冷漠缺口的最有效的方针集中在由年轻人自己领导的项目上。", "index": 5513}
{"en": "In Nigeria, young people spearheaded the Not Too Young to Run campaign, which led to a constitutional amendment lowering the minimum age for candidates.", "zh": "在尼日利亚，年轻人领衔发起了“起步永不早 ” （ Not Too Young to Run）运动，该运动促使尼日利亚修改宪法，降低候选人的最低年龄。", "index": 5514}
{"en": "Their success inspired a global campaign to support young people’s right to run for office.", "zh": "他们的成功启发了一场全球运动，支持年轻人主持政府部门的权利。", "index": 5515}
{"en": "In Kenya, the youth-led Jiactivate– the name, which combines Swahili and English, means “Activate Yourself” – has sought to boost youth participation in politics by highlighting the main issues affecting young people.", "zh": "在肯尼亚，青年领导的Jiactivate — — 这个名字结合了斯瓦西里语和英语，意为“激活你自己 ” — —旨在通过强调影响年轻人的主要问题，提高青年的政治参与。", "index": 5516}
{"en": "Jiactivate, in which I am engaged as National Chairperson, aims to serve as a platform that amplifies young Kenyans’ voices, offering them easier ways to take action.", "zh": "我以全国理事长（National Chairperson）的身份参与了Jiactivate，我们的目标是充当一个放大肯尼亚年轻人的声音的平台，让他们更加方便地采取行动。", "index": 5517}
{"en": "To inspire more such initiatives, there must be a deliberate effort to engage with youth in a way that supports real political engagement, not tokenism and empty rhetoric.", "zh": "要想启发更多的类似项目，必须有意识地采取措施，以支持真正的政治参与的方式与年轻人合作，而不是做表面文章和空喊口号。", "index": 5518}
{"en": "To that end, the Organisation of Africa Youth, of which I am coordinator, has not only worked with local youth groups and community networks; it has also taken lessons from a GeoPoll survey of 2,000 urban and rural Kenyan youth.", "zh": "在这方面，由我担任协调员的非洲青年组织（Organisation of Africa Youth）不但与本地青年团体和社区网络合作；还从一份覆盖2,000名肯尼亚城镇和农村青年的GeoPoll调查中总结经验。", "index": 5519}
{"en": "That survey showed that, while 27% of respondents had never engaged politically, 26% had attended an event and 34% had posted on social media.", "zh": "这份调查表明，27%的受访者从未参与过政治，但26%出席过政治事件，34%发布过社交媒体。", "index": 5520}
{"en": "Moreover, 68% of respondents said that they would participate in political action only if they had access to a safe and trusted platform that would protect them from victimization, intimidation, or reprimand.", "zh": "此外，68%的受访者说，只有在能够获得安全和可信任的平台渠道，能够保证他们不受伤害、恐吓和惩戒的情况下，才会参与政治活动。", "index": 5521}
{"en": "One lesson than can be drawn from these data is the potential value of social media, which, despite being constrained in many countries during elections, remains a potent tool to facilitate youth political engagement.", "zh": "从这些数据中，我们可以总结一个经验，即，尽管社交媒体在许多国家的选举期间饱受遏制，它仍然是便利青年参与政治的有力工具。", "index": 5522}
{"en": "For example, by creatively using social media to collect, collate, and amplify young people’s priorities in the Kenyan elections, Jiactivate helped spur their interest in politics.", "zh": "比如，Jiactivate创造性地利用社交媒体收集、整理和放大年轻人在肯尼亚选举中的重点关注点，提高了他们对政治的兴趣。", "index": 5523}
{"en": "Nonetheless, many Kenyans who were popular on social media did not make much of an impact on the election’s outcome.", "zh": "尽管如此，许多在社交媒体上广受欢迎的肯尼亚人，并没有对选举结果产生多少影响。", "index": 5524}
{"en": "Translating social media energy into effective action in the real world remains a daunting challenge.", "zh": "将社交媒体的能量转化为真实世界中的有效行动仍然是一个艰巨的挑战。", "index": 5525}
{"en": "Increasing youth involvement in politics will require sustained commitment and hard work.", "zh": "提高青年的政治参与度需要持续的努力和艰苦奋斗。", "index": 5526}
{"en": "But, far from a deterrent, this should serve as a powerful incentive to get started.", "zh": "但是，这不应该成为阻力，而应该成为刺激我们开始行动的强大动力。", "index": 5527}
{"en": "No one is more affected by past, present, and future policies than young people.", "zh": "年轻人是受过去、现在和未来政策影响最大的群体。", "index": 5528}
{"en": "They must take their seat at the table, not wait until one is offered.", "zh": "他们必须跻身庙堂，而不能坐等施舍。", "index": 5529}
{"en": "The Transformative Power of Africa’s Youth", "zh": "非洲青年的变革力量", "index": 5530}
{"en": "TORONTO – A few years ago, during a conversation with young people from some of Senegal’s poorest communities, a pair of social entrepreneurs told me about projects they were working on to help their peers succeed.", "zh": "多伦多 — — 几年前，在与塞内加尔某些最贫困社区的年轻人交谈时，两位社会企业家对我讲述了他们正在进行的帮助同龄人取得成功的项目。", "index": 5531}
{"en": "One young man said he planned to put more computers into primary schools; another had set up a network to connect rural job seekers in the urban tumult of Dakar, Senegal’s capital.", "zh": "其中一位年轻人说他计划为小学配备更多电脑；另外一位则在塞内加尔首都达卡尔的城市混乱中建立起了联系农村求职者的网络。", "index": 5532}
{"en": "After they finished sharing their plans, I congratulated them, and said that their parents must be very proud.", "zh": "在听完他们的计划后，我对他们表示祝贺，说他们的父母肯定是非常自豪的。", "index": 5533}
{"en": "But instead of accepting the compliment, they demurred.", "zh": "但他们非但没有接受赞美，反而陷入了沉默。", "index": 5534}
{"en": "“My parents are against what I’m doing,” they said, almost in unison, before explaining that young people face family pressure to get a government job or use their English skills to work as a tour guide – not to become a risk-taking entrepreneur.", "zh": "“我的父母反对我在做的事 ， ” 他们几乎异口同声的说，而后他们对我解释年轻人面临来自家庭的压力希望找到一份政府工作或者利用自己的英语技能成为导游 — — 而不是成为冒险的创业者。", "index": 5535}
{"en": "For ambitious young Africans, there are many obstacles to success.", "zh": "对于雄心勃勃的非洲年轻人来说，需要克服许多障碍才能取得成功。", "index": 5536}
{"en": "The journey to a job – whether formal or informal, entrepreneurial or traditional – is often a solitary one.", "zh": "无论从事正式或非正式、创业或传统工作，求职的旅程往往都充满了孤独。", "index": 5537}
{"en": "Many young people lack access to skills training or even a favorable social environment to try something new.", "zh": "许多年轻人缺少技能训练，甚至得不到有利的社会环境来尝试新鲜事物。", "index": 5538}
{"en": "As I was reminded that day in Senegal, helping young people find gainful employment is the most important thing that the international community can do to help Africa develop.", "zh": "那天在塞内加尔的经历提醒我，帮助年轻人找到有价值的工作是国际社会能够帮助非洲发展的最重要的事务。", "index": 5539}
{"en": "Africa is home to the world’s largest population of young people.", "zh": "非洲拥有全世界数量最大的年轻人口。", "index": 5540}
{"en": "In about 25 years, those young people will be part of the biggest workforce in the world, with more than 1.1 billion people of working age.", "zh": "在未来25年间，这些年轻人将成为世界劳动大军的主力，其中有超过11亿工作年龄人口。", "index": 5541}
{"en": "By some forecasts, 11 million people will enter Africa’s labor market each year for the next decade, most of whom will be first-time job seekers.", "zh": "某些预测认为，未来十年，每年将有一千一百万人进入非洲劳动力市场，其中绝大多数都是首次求职者。", "index": 5542}
{"en": "If African countries boost job growth and equip young people with employable skills, this youth bulge can deliver rapid, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth to the continent.", "zh": "如果非洲国家促进就业增长并用就业技能武装年轻人，这股年轻人大潮可以为非洲大陆带来快速、包容和可持续的经济增长。", "index": 5543}
{"en": "In turn, millions would have the opportunity to lift themselves out of poverty.", "zh": "反过来，成百上千万人或许有机会摆脱贫困。", "index": 5544}
{"en": "But Africa cannot achieve this future alone.", "zh": "但非洲无法凭借一己之力实现这样的未来目标。", "index": 5545}
{"en": "At the Mastercard Foundation, we believe that, if Africa is to reach its potential, gaps in two keys areas must be closed.", "zh": "在万事达基金会，我们认为如果想让非洲充分发挥其潜力，那么有两大关键领域的差距必须得到弥补。", "index": 5546}
{"en": "The first area is access to financial products and services.", "zh": "第一个领域是获取金融产品和服务。", "index": 5547}
{"en": "According to the World Bank, some two billion people around the world currently lack such access.", "zh": "据世界银行统计，世界各地约有20亿人目前无法获得金融产品和服务。", "index": 5548}
{"en": "In Sub-Saharan Africa, just 34% of adults have a bank account, making it difficult for people to put money aside for unplanned events, like a bad harvest, or to save for school.", "zh": "在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，仅有34%的成年人拥有银行户头，这种状况为人们储蓄资金以备不时之需带来了困难，比如遇到农作物歉收或者为了积攒学费的需要。", "index": 5549}
{"en": "This must change, with Africans gaining not only better access to banking systems, but also improved financial literacy.", "zh": "这种状况必须改变，非洲民众不仅应当拥有更好的金融系统，而且应当提高金融素养。", "index": 5550}
{"en": "The second key challenge that must be addressed is exclusion from secondary and higher education.", "zh": "必须解决的第二个关键问题是排斥中等和高等教育。", "index": 5551}
{"en": "While progress has been made in some regions, only about one-third of Africa’s young people graduate from high school.", "zh": "尽管某些地区已经取得了进展，但从高中毕业的年轻人仅占约三分之一左右。", "index": 5552}
{"en": "Girls are particularly disadvantaged; according to UNESCO, in Sub-Saharan Africa, an estimated nine million girls under the age of 11 have never been to school, compared to six million boys.", "zh": "这方面女孩儿尤其弱势；据联合国教科文组织统计，在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，估计有900万11岁以下女童从未接受过学校教育，而从未上过学的男童仅有600万左右。", "index": 5553}
{"en": "To address these issues, the Mastercard Foundation has established partnerships with local organizations to design education and financial-literacy programs aimed at helping young people find and keep jobs.", "zh": "为了解决这些问题，万事达基金会已经与当地组织建立了合作，目的是设计帮助年轻人找到并保住工作岗位的教育和金融素质项目。", "index": 5554}
{"en": "By building a better-trained workforce, the Foundation’s programs are helping to empower the next generation of Africa’s community members and leaders, so that they can help their families, communities, and countries achieve a brighter and more prosperous future.", "zh": "通过建设更加训练有素的劳动队伍，万事达基金会项目正在协助授权下一代非洲的社区成员和领导者，以便他们能够帮助自己的家庭、社区和国家实现更加光明和繁荣的未来。", "index": 5555}
{"en": "Already, a new generation of educated and ethical entrepreneurs, like those I met in Senegal, is emerging across Africa, demonstrating a profound commitment to building a stronger Africa.", "zh": "就像我在塞内加尔所遇到的那样，非洲各地正在涌现新一代受过教育且讲道德的企业家，体现了建设更强大非洲的深远的目标。", "index": 5556}
{"en": "For example, when I ask young people participating in our Scholars Program what they plan to do with their new skills, they almost always reply that after getting a job, they plan to help somebody else, by returning to their secondary schools to serve as mentors to younger students.", "zh": "例如，当我问及参与我们学者计划的年轻人他们学会技能后要做些什么，他们几乎无一例外地回答说在找到新的工作后，他们希望能帮助他人，比如回到自己毕业的中学担任导师辅导年轻的学生。", "index": 5557}
{"en": "Some of our program’s graduates have even established community projects in their villages to address HIV/AIDS or to build shelters for orphans and young children.", "zh": "我们课程的某些毕业生已经在自己的村里设立了应对艾滋病毒/艾滋病的社区计划，还有人修建了孤儿和幼儿收容机构。", "index": 5558}
{"en": "Every one of these bright young Africans – examples of what the Mastercard Foundation calls “transformative leadership” in action – has the potential to drive change in their own countries and communities.", "zh": "每个聪明的非洲年轻人 — — 万事达基金会所谓“变革型领导者”的实例 — — 都有可能在自己的国家和社区推动变革。", "index": 5559}
{"en": "Those of us working in the field of international development can help level the playing field even more, by giving young Africans from all backgrounds an opportunity to lead in transformative ways.", "zh": "我们这些国际发展领域工作者可以协助进一步创造公平环境，赋予所有背景的非洲年轻人机会以变革的方式进行领导。", "index": 5560}
{"en": "If we succeed, Africa’s dreamers of today will be the catalysts of positive change tomorrow.", "zh": "如果我们能够取得成功，非洲今天的梦想家将成为明天积极变革的催化力量。", "index": 5561}
{"en": "Africa’s Defining Challenge", "zh": "非洲决定性的挑战", "index": 5562}
{"en": "ADDIS ABABA – Africa has the youngest population in the world, and it’s growing fast.", "zh": "亚的斯亚贝巴 — — 非洲有全世界最年轻的人口，而且正在快速增长之中。", "index": 5563}
{"en": "By 2055, the continent’s youth population (aged 15-24), is expected to be more than double the 2015 total of 226 million.", "zh": "到2055年，非洲大陆的年轻人口（15到24岁）预计将比2015年的总人数2.26亿翻两番以上。", "index": 5564}
{"en": "Yet the continent remains stubbornly inhospitable – politically, economically, and socially – to young people.", "zh": "但年轻人在非洲大陆却仍然面临着不友好的政治、经济和社会环境。", "index": 5565}
{"en": "The success of African governments’ efforts to address this will be the single most important factor determining whether the continent prospers or suffers in the coming decades.", "zh": "非洲国家政府能否解决这一问题将成为今后几十年非洲大陆繁荣或是萧条的唯一最重要的决定因素。", "index": 5566}
{"en": "A business-as-usual approach would risk exposing Africa not only to economic underperformance and a brain drain, but also to criminality, political and social unrest, and even armed conflict.", "zh": "如果继续采用一切照旧的做法，那么非洲不仅需要面对经济疲软和人才外流，而且可能面对犯罪活动猖獗、政治和社会动荡乃至爆发武装冲突。", "index": 5567}
{"en": "But Africa can thrive if its governments act now to tap the energy and dynamism of the burgeoning youth population.", "zh": "但如果非洲政府立即采取行动激发新一代年轻人的能量和活力，将会给非洲大陆带来繁荣。", "index": 5568}
{"en": "What is needed is a comprehensive policy agenda, comprising demographically informed measures that address political, cultural, and economic exclusion in a synchronized manner.", "zh": "我们需要制定全面的政策议程，充分考虑到相关的人口因素，同步解决政治、文化和经济领域青年人所面临的排斥和困境。", "index": 5569}
{"en": "This will be no small feat, not least because of the massive age gap between Africa’s young majority and their leaders: the average age of an African president is 62, while the median age of Africa’s population is 19.5.", "zh": "实现这一目标绝非轻而易举，尤其考虑到非洲绝大多数年轻人和国家领袖之间巨大的年龄落差：非洲总统的平均年龄为62岁，而非洲年轻人的中位数年龄仅为19.5岁。", "index": 5570}
{"en": "That is the world’s largest age gap between governors and the governed, and it raises concerns about how well decision-makers understand the needs and aspirations of young people.", "zh": "这创造了全世界执政者和被执政者之间最大的年龄差，并引起了人们对决策者能否理解年轻人期望和需求的担心。", "index": 5571}
{"en": "It does not help that a tradition of gerontocracy prevails in many countries, meaning that young people’s political participation and influence is restricted on cultural grounds.", "zh": "许多国家在传统上盛行老人政治也让问题变得更加严重，这意味着年轻人的政治参与和影响力受制于文化因素。", "index": 5572}
{"en": "To help overcome this barrier, governments should treat generational inequality with the same sense of urgency as other forms of inequality, accelerating efforts to introduce youth quotas for political parties, parliaments, and other decision-making institutions.", "zh": "为克服这一障碍，非洲政府应当以解决其他不平等问题同样的紧迫感来解决代际不平等问题，加速推进在政党、议会和其他决策机构实行年轻人配额的工作。", "index": 5573}
{"en": "Much work also remains to be done on the economic front.", "zh": "经济方面也还有许多任务需要完成。", "index": 5574}
{"en": "According to the African Development Bank, 12 million young people entered Africa’s labor force in 2015, but only 3.1 million jobs were created.", "zh": "据非洲开发银行统计，2015年有1，200万年轻人加入非洲劳动者队伍，但却仅仅创造了310万个就业岗位。", "index": 5575}
{"en": "That means that millions of young people were left without a stake in the economy.", "zh": "这意味着数以百万计年轻人的一切经济利益都被剥夺。", "index": 5576}
{"en": "In the short and medium term, it will be virtually impossible to create enough jobs to meet the needs of the unemployed and vulnerably employed.", "zh": "中短期来看，几乎不可能创造就业机会来满足失业和弱势群体的就业需求。", "index": 5577}
{"en": "Africa does not have a large labor-intensive manufacturing sector to absorb its mushrooming young population.", "zh": "非洲并不具有能大量吸纳年轻人口的大规模劳动密集型制造业。", "index": 5578}
{"en": "But there are programs that can help.", "zh": "但有些项目可以起到一定的缓解作用。", "index": 5579}
{"en": "For example, YouthConnekt Africa, launched by the United Nations Development Programme and the government of Rwanda, encourages youth-friendly policies, such as access to finance and skills development, that match the needs of the market in particular countries.", "zh": "比如，由联合国开发计划署和卢旺达政府共同发起的YouthConnekt Africa计划鼓励对年轻人采取友善的政策，比如为他们提供融资和技能开发的机会，以满足所在国家的市场需求。", "index": 5580}
{"en": "Still, given the dearth of opportunities at home, many young Africans view migration as a chance for social mobility.", "zh": "但鉴于国内机会的严重匮乏，许多非洲年轻人依靠移民来争取社会流动性。", "index": 5581}
{"en": "Yet, as the CEO of a major company based in Sub-Saharan Africa recently lamented to me, acquiring work visas for Africans is extremely difficult.", "zh": "但撒哈拉以南非洲一家大企业的首席执行官最近曾对我抱怨，为非洲人争取工作签证是一项极其困难的任务。", "index": 5582}
{"en": "In fact, it can be easier to get a work visa for a British citizen than for, say, a Ghanaian with the same skills.", "zh": "事实上，英国公民或许能比具有同等技能的加纳公民更容易地取得工作签证。", "index": 5583}
{"en": "Africa’s vision for economic integration, as set out in the African Union’s Agenda 2063, cannot be realized without labor migration that creates African careers paths for young people.", "zh": "如果没有为非洲年轻人拓展职业道路的劳工移民政策，就很难实现非洲联盟2063年议程所规划的非洲经济一体化的前景。", "index": 5584}
{"en": "It is telling that so many Africans are willing to risk drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, living in appalling detention centers in North Africa, or sleeping in public parks in European cities, rather than remaining in Africa.", "zh": "如此之多的非洲人宁愿冒险葬身地中海、生活在北非可怕的拘留中心或者露宿欧洲城市公园，也不愿留在非洲就很能说明问题。", "index": 5585}
{"en": "Yet, contrary to popular belief, young people are not migrating from Africa exclusively for economic reasons.", "zh": "但与外界的普遍认识不同，年轻人并非仅仅出于经济原因才选择移民。", "index": 5586}
{"en": "Rather, they are motivated by the promise of opportunities for genuine self-improvement and the freedom to decide who to be and how to live.", "zh": "相反，他们希望寻找真正的自我完善机会以及决定自我身份和生活方式的自由。", "index": 5587}
{"en": "That is certainly what led me to leave Africa and head to Europe at a young age.", "zh": "我年轻时肯定因为这些因素才离开非洲来到欧洲。", "index": 5588}
{"en": "In fact, the desire for self-improvement through migration is a key element of the human story – one that no desert, sea, or artificial barrier has been able to quell.", "zh": "事实上，通过移民实现自我完善的愿望是人类经历的一个关键要素 — — 任凭沙漠、海洋抑或人为的屏障都无法阻隔。", "index": 5589}
{"en": "Political and cultural exclusion intensifies it.", "zh": "政治和文化排斥加剧了这种现象。", "index": 5590}
{"en": "Given this, any strategy that does not address the broader environment of marginalization is a bridge to nowhere.", "zh": "因此，任何无法真正解决边缘化大环境的策略都根本行不通。", "index": 5591}
{"en": "So far, Africa seems to be sleepwalking into a future of lost opportunity and, potentially, serious instability.", "zh": "到目前为止，非洲似乎在梦游中进入到一个丧失机会、而且可能极端不稳定的未来。", "index": 5592}
{"en": "And Africa’s international partners have remained preoccupied with containing migration from the continent, rather than addressing its underlying causes.", "zh": "而且非洲的国际伙伴似乎一直专注于限制来自非洲大陆的移民，而不是关注产生移民问题的根本理由。", "index": 5593}
{"en": "But there may be reason for hope.", "zh": "但我们仍有理由满怀希望。", "index": 5594}
{"en": "The fifth European Union-Africa Summit, to be held later this year, will focus squarely on the continent’s young people.", "zh": "今年晚些时候即将召开的欧盟非洲首脑会议势必将关注的重点放在非洲大陆的年轻人身上。", "index": 5595}
{"en": "Likewise, the African Union’s theme for 2017 is “Harnessing the Demographic Dividend Through Investments in Youth.”", "zh": "同样，非盟2017年的工作主题是“通过投资年轻人挖掘非洲的人口红利 ” 。", "index": 5596}
{"en": "One hopes that the growing recognition of the need to create opportunities for young people leads to effective, solidarity-based initiatives that address the barriers to youth empowerment on the continent, instead of erecting barriers to prevent young people from leaving.", "zh": "我们希望为有必要为年轻人创造机会的越来越清醒的认识能够催生消除非洲大陆年轻人就业障碍的团结一致的高效举措，并且取代那些单纯通过设置障碍来防止年轻人离开的行动。", "index": 5597}
{"en": "To paraphrase Martin Luther King, Africa confronts the fierce urgency of now.", "zh": "借用马丁·路德·金的话讲，非洲现在正面临着万分紧急的时刻。", "index": 5598}
{"en": "There is such a thing as being too late.", "zh": "有的时候太晚就一切都来不及了。", "index": 5599}
{"en": "Listening to Africa’s Future Farmers", "zh": "聆听非洲未来农民", "index": 5600}
{"en": "NAIROBI – Africa is in the midst of a youth employment crisis.", "zh": "内罗毕—非洲陷入了一场青年就业危机。", "index": 5601}
{"en": "By 2035, some 350 million new jobs will be needed, and agriculture, the continent’s biggest industry, could provide the bulk of them.", "zh": "到2035年，非洲需要大约3.5亿个新工作岗位，其最大产业农业能够提供其中的大部分。", "index": 5602}
{"en": "But at the moment, young Africans are shunning life on the farm for work in the city.", "zh": "但目前，非洲年轻人正在离开田间地头，来到城市中工作。", "index": 5603}
{"en": "If Africa’s employment gap is to be closed, agribusinesses must find ways to recruit younger hands.", "zh": "要想填补非洲就业缺口，农业企业必须设法招募更年轻的人手。", "index": 5604}
{"en": "This challenge was the focus of my research as part of the Youth Think Tank, a youth-led research initiative in partnership with Restless Development Uganda and the Mastercard Foundation.", "zh": "这一挑战是我的研究重点。 这项研究是由年轻人领衔、研究计划青年智库（Youth Think Tank）与不懈开发乌干达（Restless Development Uganda）和万事达卡基金会（Mastercard Foundation）合作开展的计划的一部分。", "index": 5605}
{"en": "In a recent report, we examined the experiences of young African agriculturalists in seven countries.", "zh": "在最新报告中，我们考察了非洲多国年轻农业专家的经验。", "index": 5606}
{"en": "And what we discovered is that the best way to entice young people back to the farm is by improving access to and engagement with emerging technologies.", "zh": "我们发现，吸引年轻人重回农场的最佳办法是让他们能够获得和利用新兴技术。", "index": 5607}
{"en": "Many of the young people with whom we spoke said that their biggest obstacle to a career in farming is learning the digital and technical skills necessary to succeed in today’s agricultural market.", "zh": "与我们交流的许多年轻人说，他们务农的最大障碍是学习在当今农业市场中获得成功所必须的数字和科技技能。", "index": 5608}
{"en": "With technologies like cloud computing, soil sensors, and weather drones changing how food is produced, packaged, and distributed, digital literacy is as important as arable land and high-quality seeds.", "zh": "云计算、土地传感器、天气无人机等技术正在改变粮食的生产、包装和分销方式，数字素质（digital literacy）与适耕土地和高质量种子一样重要。", "index": 5609}
{"en": "It stands to reason, then, that if more young people could master digital skills, more would find work in the field.", "zh": "因此，如果更多年轻人能够驾驭数字技能，就自然会有更多人在田间地头找到用武之地。", "index": 5610}
{"en": "To understand how important technology is to the young African farmer, consider competition for land.", "zh": "要理解技术对非洲年轻农民的重要性，可以考察以下土地竞争。", "index": 5611}
{"en": "Most farmland is acquired through hereditary or communal distribution systems, and when new plots are allocated, they are typically smaller than those provided to previous generations.", "zh": "大部分农地通过遗产或公共分配制度获得，而新分配农地往往大小不如此前所分的农地。", "index": 5612}
{"en": "To remain profitable, younger growers must produce larger crops from smaller spaces, which requires innovation.", "zh": "要保持盈利能力，年轻农民必须在更少的土地上种出更多庄稼，而这就需要创新。", "index": 5613}
{"en": "Our study found that in many cases, the best solutions for young farmers are already being designed by young people.", "zh": "我们的研究发现，在许多情况下，对年轻农民来说最好的办法已经在年轻人的开发之中。", "index": 5614}
{"en": "For example, in Kenya, one vegetable grower turned her kitchen garden into a vertical farm to increase its output.", "zh": "比如，在肯尼亚，一位菜农把她的裁菜园改造为垂直农场以增加产出。", "index": 5615}
{"en": "Today, she runs her own business designing, fabricating, and installing similar structures for a variety of customers.", "zh": "如今，她经营着自己的企业，为各种客户设计、制作和安装类似的结构。", "index": 5616}
{"en": "Another interviewee created a mobile app to help farmers connect with local seed and fertilizer suppliers.", "zh": "另一位受访者开发了一个移动应用帮助农民与本地种子和肥料供应商联系。", "index": 5617}
{"en": "Unfortunately, these types of youth-driven innovations rarely receive the necessary political or financial backing to make them viable and scalable.", "zh": "不幸的是，这些年轻人推动的创新很少能够获得必要的政治和财务支持实现生存和扩张。", "index": 5618}
{"en": "Despite having great ideas, most young agricultural innovators do not feel supported in their efforts.", "zh": "许多年轻农业创新者拥有了不起的想法，但难以获得支持。", "index": 5619}
{"en": "Young people can help solve Africa’s unemployment challenges, but those closest to the problem have yet to be made part of the solution.", "zh": "年轻人能够助力解决非洲的失业问题，但最接近问题的人却无法成为解决方案的一部分。", "index": 5620}
{"en": "Our research suggests several strategies to achieve this outcome.", "zh": "我们的研究建议了一些实现这一结果的策略。", "index": 5621}
{"en": "For starters, young people need places to engage with like-minded innovators.", "zh": "首先，年轻人需要与创新同道交流的场所。", "index": 5622}
{"en": "Recognizing this, policymakers and the private sector should work together to create incubation centers and ideation hubs to help young people build, discuss, and access farm-related technologies.", "zh": "认识到这一点，决策者和私人部门应该合作建立孵化中心和创意枢纽（ideation hub）帮助年轻人构建、讨论和接触与农场相关的技术。", "index": 5623}
{"en": "Moreover, those who promote new farm technologies should travel to the places where young people gather, to provide hands-on, audience-specific training.", "zh": "此外，推进新农场技术的人应该亲身体验年轻人聚集的场所，提供亲身体验、为受众量身定制的培训。", "index": 5624}
{"en": "If the newest farm gadgets and tools are marketed only on social media, as is often the case, uptake in rural areas will remain weak.", "zh": "如果最新农场技术和工具旨在社交媒体上兜售（通常正是如此 ） ， 农村地区对这些技术和工具的吸收便无法提高。", "index": 5625}
{"en": "Next, young people need access to financial products and services to help them turn their ideas into marketable businesses.", "zh": "还有，年轻人需要得到金融产品和服务，以助他们将概念转化为可以在市场推广的业务。", "index": 5626}
{"en": "And, finally, countries must find ways to involve their youth in early stages of the technology-development pipeline.", "zh": "最后，各国必须设法在技术发展的早期阶段就让年轻人参与进来。", "index": 5627}
{"en": "As the experience of the Kenyan gardener illustrates, young people are often the best judges of what will deliver long-term, practical results.", "zh": "前述肯尼亚菜农的经验表明，年轻人常常是哪些概念能带来长期切实效果的最佳评判者。", "index": 5628}
{"en": "Last year, I had the privilege of presenting these findings at the Global Youth Economic Opportunities Summit in Washington, DC.", "zh": "去年，我有幸在华盛顿的全球青年经济机会峰会（Global Youth Economic Opportunities Summit）上展示这些发现。", "index": 5629}
{"en": "I spoke about the role young people play in Africa’s economy, and the importance of soliciting their views on the future of African agriculture.", "zh": "我谈到了年轻人在非洲经济中的作用，以及收集他们关于非洲农业的未来的观点的重要性。", "index": 5630}
{"en": "It was an important first step in bringing young peoples’ ideas to the table.", "zh": "这是将年轻人的概念摆上台面的重要的第一步。", "index": 5631}
{"en": "But much work remains to be done.", "zh": "但还有很多工作需要完成。", "index": 5632}
{"en": "According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the average age of an African farmer today is about 60, while 60% of the population is under the age of 24.", "zh": "据联合国粮农组织，非洲农民的平均年龄目前为60岁左右，而60%的非洲人口不到24岁。", "index": 5633}
{"en": "To breathe new life into Africa’s farms, the entire industry must innovate.", "zh": "要向非洲农场注入新鲜血液，整个农业都必须创新。", "index": 5634}
{"en": "And, as our research shows, the best way to do that is by working much more closely with those who have the most to gain from progress.", "zh": "而我们的研究表明，实现创新的最佳办法是与从进步中获益最多的群体进行更加紧密的合作。", "index": 5635}
{"en": "After Assimilation", "zh": "同化以后", "index": 5636}
{"en": "Human migration is as old as history. Even migration to distant places and remote cultures is nothing new.", "zh": "人类的迁徙与我们的历史一样悠久，即便移民到遥远、陌生的国度也毫不新奇。", "index": 5637}
{"en": "In the nineteenth century, millions of Europeans sought liberty and prosperity in the Americas, notably in the United States.", "zh": "19世纪，成百上千万的欧洲人前往美洲，特别是美国寻找自由和繁荣。", "index": 5638}
{"en": "What is new today is the scale of migration, often across huge cultural divides - and often without a definite aim.", "zh": "但今天的移民规模是前所未有的，移民们常常跨越了巨大的文化障碍－而且没有特定的目标。", "index": 5639}
{"en": "The African boat people in the Mediterranean are often not even sure whether they want to be in Italy, Germany, or Britain.", "zh": "地中海的非洲船民常常不清楚自己想去哪里：意大利、德国还是英国。", "index": 5640}
{"en": "Even those who are certain, like North Africans in Spain and France, or Turks in Germany, had as their priority escaping the hopelessness of their home countries, not arriving at a particular destination.", "zh": "即便像西班牙和法国的北非移民或德国的土耳其移民那样清楚自己的目的地，他们的首要目标也是摆脱国内的绝望窘境，而不是易地而居。", "index": 5641}
{"en": "This modern form of migration raises massive problems for countries on the receiving end. In Europe, it is probably the most serious social issue today, because no one has a clear idea about how to manage the resulting clash of cultures.", "zh": "这种现代形式的迁徙给接收国造成了很多麻烦，甚至成了欧洲目前最严重的社会问题，因为没人知道该怎样处理由此产生的文化冲突。", "index": 5642}
{"en": "Once upon a time, North America, notably the US, seemed to provide the answer.", "zh": "曾几何时，北美洲，特别是美国，成了解决问题的样板。", "index": 5643}
{"en": "It was that of the \"melting pot\": different peoples made their own contribution to American culture, but, above all, they made every effort to accept what they found and integrate.", "zh": "他们提出了\"熔炉\"概念：不同的人为美国文化做出自己的贡献，但最重要的是，他们尽力接受现实，融入美国社会。", "index": 5644}
{"en": "\"No,\" the Russian woman who came to the US in the early twentieth century replied to the grandchild who asked whether her ancestors arrived with the Pilgrims on the Mayflower. \"Our ship had a different name, but now we are all Americans.\"", "zh": "当小孙孙问起20世纪初移民美国的俄国妇女，他们的祖先是不是和朝圣者一起坐着\"五月花\"号轮船到达美国时，她回答说 ： \" 不是，我们的船有个不一样的名字，但我们现在都是美国人。", "index": 5645}
{"en": "More recently, this has changed, giving rise to a process described by Arthur Schlesinger, the historian and former aide to President John F. Kennedy, in his book The Disuniting of America.", "zh": "可近来情况却有所变化，约翰·F·肯尼迪总统的前助理、历史学家阿瑟·施莱辛格在其著作《美国的分裂》中描述的问题开始初现端倪。", "index": 5646}
{"en": "No longer are all US citizens Americans. They have become hyphenated Americans: Italian-Americans, African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and so on.", "zh": "美国公民不再都是美国人，而是要在前面加上特定的修饰语：意大利裔美国人、非洲裔美国人、西班牙裔美国人等等等等。", "index": 5647}
{"en": "The ingredients of the melting pot are separating.", "zh": "美国熔炉的各个部分开始四分五裂。", "index": 5648}
{"en": "Even in Israel, the last true immigration country - at least for Jews - assimilation is no longer so easy.", "zh": "即使在最后一个真正的移民国家以色列－至少对犹太人来讲确实如此－文化融合也不再是件易事。", "index": 5649}
{"en": "Recent newcomers from Russia have their own political party, and old Europeans have become a distinct minority.", "zh": "不久前到来的俄国新移民成立了自己的政党，而那些欧洲老移民成了当然的少数民族。", "index": 5650}
{"en": "Israel and America continue to have mechanisms to integrate new migrants.", "zh": "以色列和美国仍然具备融合新移民的机制。", "index": 5651}
{"en": "Language is an important underlying factor, and in Israel, there is the army, while in America, the values embodied in the Constitution still represent a shared secular faith.", "zh": "语言是个重要的根本因素，此外以色列还有军队，而美国宪法蕴藏的价值观仍然代表着共同的社会信仰。", "index": 5652}
{"en": "But these mechanisms are weakening everywhere, and are virtually non-existent in European countries.", "zh": "但这样的机制正在全球范围内逐渐削弱，在欧洲国家更是几乎不复存在。", "index": 5653}
{"en": "Modern societies are characterized by acute problems of belonging.", "zh": "归属问题成了现代社会最严重的危机。", "index": 5654}
{"en": "They don't offer the implicit, unconscious ties of community that citizens felt in the past. As a result, people have begun to cling to other, more primordial group identities.", "zh": "人们再也无法像过去那样感觉到含蓄却潜移默化的整体联系，结果导致他们开始固守其它更原始的团体特征。", "index": 5655}
{"en": "They resist assimilation, fearing that it will rob them of their identity without offering a new one.", "zh": "他们拒绝同化，害怕文化的融合不仅带不来新的归属感，还会把原来的身份也无情地夺走。", "index": 5656}
{"en": "What then is the alternative to assimilation?", "zh": "那么除同化外还有什么其它的选择？", "index": 5657}
{"en": "The \"salad bowl\" of so-called multiculturalism is no real alternative, because it does not provide the necessary glue that binds communities together.", "zh": "所谓的多文化主义\"沙拉\"并不是真正的选择，因为它提供不了联结团体所必须的粘合剂。", "index": 5658}
{"en": "All the ingredients remain separate from the outset.", "zh": "所有的部分从一开始就四分五裂。", "index": 5659}
{"en": "The only viable alternative for which there are examples is probably that of London or New York. The main characteristic of this alternative is the coexistence of a common public sphere shared by all and a considerable degree of cultural separation in the \"private\" sphere, notably in residential areas.", "zh": "有成功先例并且唯一可行的备选方案可能就要数伦敦和纽约了，其主要特点是所有人拥有共同的公共领域，而在\"私人\"领域，特别是居民区中则有很多文化差别。", "index": 5660}
{"en": "The public space is multicultural in terms of people's backgrounds, but is governed by agreed values, even a common language, whereas the people's private lives are - to use an ugly word - ghettoized.", "zh": "公共领域中人们的背景非常多元化，但却奉行共同的价值观甚至讲同样的语言，而人们的私生活却－用个不太好听的字眼来形容－形形色色。", "index": 5661}
{"en": "In theory, this is a distinctly second-best solution to the cultural consequences of migration; in practice it is the best answer we have.", "zh": "从理论上讲，这是解决移民问题的次优方案，但从实际来看，这是我们现有的最佳做法。", "index": 5662}
{"en": "But it cannot be had for nothing.", "zh": "但这也绝不是唾手可得。", "index": 5663}
{"en": "Even the necessary minimum of a common language requires a deliberate effort, to say nothing of certain rules of behavior.", "zh": "因为即便想满足共同语言的最低限度也需要努力，更不用说建立特定的行为规范了。", "index": 5664}
{"en": "Living in London, I marvel at the way in which we Londoners have come to terms with Indian family shops and West Indian-run public transport, while not asking many questions about whole districts that are Bangladeshi or Chinese.", "zh": "作为伦敦居民，伦敦人对印度家庭商店和西印度人管理公共交通的无言认可常常让我感到惊讶，他们从来不问为什么这个地区都是孟加拉人或中国人。", "index": 5665}
{"en": "No one has yet found a name for this new version of the \"separate but equal\" doctrine that some of us fought so hard against in the 1960's: separate private lives in a common public space that is equal for all.", "zh": "甚至没有人想到过给这种20世纪60年代曾被我们强烈反对的\"分离而平等\"理念取个名字：在平等的公共领域中存在着迥然不同的个人生活。", "index": 5666}
{"en": "This is clearly easier in London and New York than it is in smaller towns or even in the capitals of countries where the world language of English is not spoken.", "zh": "如果比起小城镇甚至是非英语国家的首都，这样的现象在伦敦和纽约等城市肯定更为普遍。", "index": 5667}
{"en": "Berlin's Turkish community and the North African communities around Paris seem increasingly separate, with their own public sphere and often language.", "zh": "柏林的土耳其人和巴黎周边的北非人似乎越离越远，每个民族都有自己的公共领域，也都有自己的语言。", "index": 5668}
{"en": "Where this happens, an explosive condition can arise, a kind of separatism within, not by historically separate groups but by newcomers against natives.", "zh": "如果出现了这种情况，就会产生蕴含着分离主义的爆炸性局面，这不是古已有之的团体对立，而是新移民与当地人之间的对立。", "index": 5669}
{"en": "If we are forced to abandon the hope of assimilation, our efforts should concentrate on creating a public space to which all contribute and that all enjoy.", "zh": "如果我们被迫放弃同化的希望，那么就必须集中力量创造所有人为之奉献并共同享受的公共环境。", "index": 5670}
{"en": "Ideally, this should be an expanding public space, for in the end, the element of unity in a modern society is the guarantee of its citizens' liberty.", "zh": "理想状况下，这种公共环境应该持续发展，因为归根结底，现代社会的团结因素是公民自由的最终保障。", "index": 5671}
{"en": "After Austerity", "zh": "紧缩之后", "index": 5672}
{"en": "NEW YORK – This year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund made clear that Europe and the international community remain rudderless when it comes to economic policy.", "zh": "纽约—今年的IMF年会清楚地表明，欧洲和国际社会对经济政策还是一头雾水。", "index": 5673}
{"en": "Financial leaders, from finance ministers to leaders of private financial institutions, reiterated the current mantra: the crisis countries have to get their houses in order, reduce their deficits, bring down their national debts, undertake structural reforms, and promote growth.", "zh": "财政领导人们 — — 不管是财政部长还是私人财政机构 — — 不断地念念有词，说危机国必须收拾好自己的房子，削减自己的债务，降低自己的国民债务水平，实施结构性改革，并努力刺激增长。", "index": 5674}
{"en": "Confidence, it was repeatedly said, needs to be restored.", "zh": "需要重塑信心这一点被反复重申。", "index": 5675}
{"en": "It is a little precious to hear such pontifications from those who, at the helm of central banks, finance ministries, and private banks, steered the global financial system to the brink of ruin – and created the ongoing mess.", "zh": "这些把持着央行行长、财政部长、私人银行老板高位的大佬们几乎把全球金融系统拉下悬崖，造成的混乱至今仍在影响着我们，他们能说出这样的话真是有些“难能可贵 ” 。", "index": 5676}
{"en": "Worse, seldom is it explained how to square the circle.", "zh": "更糟糕的是，这不啻缘木求鱼。", "index": 5677}
{"en": "How can confidence be restored as the crisis economies plunge into recession?", "zh": "在危机经济体深陷衰退的时候，如何重塑信心？", "index": 5678}
{"en": "How can growth be revived when austerity will almost surely mean a further decrease in aggregate demand, sending output and employment even lower?", "zh": "在紧缩几乎肯定会进一步拖累总需求、使产出和就业继续恶化的时候，如何重塑增长？", "index": 5679}
{"en": "This we should know by now: markets on their own are not stable.", "zh": "现在我们需要知道的是，市场不能靠自己稳定下来。", "index": 5680}
{"en": "Not only do they repeatedly generate destabilizing asset bubbles, but, when demand weakens, forces that exacerbate the downturn come into play.", "zh": "市场不但一再造成不稳定的资产泡沫，当需求疲软时，市场还会形成加剧下滑趋势的力量。", "index": 5681}
{"en": "Unemployment, and fear that it will spread, drives down wages, incomes, and consumption – and thus total demand.", "zh": "失业以及对失业蔓延的担心压低了工资、收入和消费，从而拖累了总需求。", "index": 5682}
{"en": "Decreased rates of household formation – young Americans, for example, are increasingly moving back in with their parents – depress housing prices, leading to still more foreclosures.", "zh": "家庭形成速度的下降 — — 比如，年青一代美国人越来越多地搬回家去和父母同住 — — 抑制了房价，导致了更多的人被剥夺了按揭权。", "index": 5683}
{"en": "States with balanced-budget frameworks are forced to cut spending as tax revenues fall – an automatic destabilizer that Europe seems mindlessly bent on adopting.", "zh": "实行平衡预算框架的国家被迫削减预算，因为税收收入降低了 — — 这就是欧洲一根筋地力行不懈的“动摇器 ” （ destabilizer ） 。", "index": 5684}
{"en": "There are alternative strategies.", "zh": "我们可以采取替代措施。", "index": 5685}
{"en": "Some countries, like Germany, have room for fiscal maneuver. Using it for investment would enhance long-term growth, with positive spillovers to the rest of Europe.", "zh": "德国等国家拥有财政机动的空间，用之进行投资可以提振长期增长，并对欧洲其他国家形成积极的溢出效应。", "index": 5686}
{"en": "A long-recognized principle is that balanced expansion of taxes and spending stimulates the economy; if the program is well designed (taxes at the top, combined with spending on education), the increase in GDP and employment can be significant.", "zh": "一条早已为人所知的原理是税收和支出的平衡扩张能刺激经济，如果有一个设计良好的计划（对尖端人士征税，并增加教育方面的支出 ） ， GDP和就业将能有巨大改善。", "index": 5687}
{"en": "Europe as a whole is not in bad fiscal shape; its debt-to-GDP ratio compares favorably with that of the United States.", "zh": "整体而言，欧洲的财政状况并不差：其债务-GDP比率比美国还要好。", "index": 5688}
{"en": "If each US state were totally responsible for its own budget, including paying all unemployment benefits, America, too, would be in fiscal crisis.", "zh": "如果美国的每个州都需要对自身预算完全负责（包括支付所有失业保险 ） ， 那么美国也将爆发财政危机。", "index": 5689}
{"en": "The lesson is obvious:  the whole is more than the sum of its parts.", "zh": "美国的经验是显而易见的：部分之和大于整体。", "index": 5690}
{"en": "If Europe – particularly the European Central Bank – were to borrow, and re-lend the proceeds, the costs of servicing Europe’s debt would fall, creating room for the kinds of expenditure that would promote growth and employment.", "zh": "如果欧洲（特别是欧洲央行）可以借款并转手放贷，那么欧洲债务的维持成本就会下降，从而为刺激增长和就业的支出创造空间。", "index": 5691}
{"en": "There are already institutions within Europe, such as the European Investment Bank, that could help finance needed investments in the cash-starved economies.", "zh": "欧洲内部已经有了合适的机构（如欧洲投资银行）可以帮助资金受困国为必须的投资融资。", "index": 5692}
{"en": "The EIB should expand its lending.", "zh": "欧洲投资银行应该加大贷款力度。", "index": 5693}
{"en": "There need to be increased funds available to support small and medium-size enterprises – the main source of job creation in all economies – which is especially important, given that credit contraction by banks hits these enterprises especially hard.", "zh": "中小企业 — — 就业创造的主力军，在任何国家都是如此 — — 需要更多的资金支持，这一点尤其重要，因为银行信用的收缩对中小企业的冲击尤重。", "index": 5694}
{"en": "Europe’s single-minded focus on austerity is a result of a misdiagnosis of its problems.", "zh": "欧洲之所以一根筋地死抓紧缩不放，是因为他们误诊了问题。", "index": 5695}
{"en": "Greece overspent, but Spain and Ireland had fiscal surpluses and low debt-to-GDP ratios before the crisis.", "zh": "希腊确实是指出过度，但西班牙和爱尔兰在危机前财政都有盈余，债务-GDP比率也���低。", "index": 5696}
{"en": "Giving lectures about fiscal prudence is beside the point.", "zh": "大谈审慎财政可谓使错了力。", "index": 5697}
{"en": "Taking the lectures seriously –  even adopting tight budget frameworks – can be counterproductive.", "zh": "把这一点当真，甚至采取严厉的预算框架只能适得其反。", "index": 5698}
{"en": "Regardless of whether Europe’s problems are temporary or fundamental – the eurozone, for example, is far from an “optimal” currency area, and tax competition in a free-trade and free-migration area can erode a viable state – austerity will make matters worse.", "zh": "不论欧洲的问题是暂时性的还是基础性的 — — 比如，欧元区远非“最优”货币区，且自由贸易和人口自由流动地区的税收竞赛会拖垮原本健康的国家 — — 紧缩肯定只能让情况更加糟糕。", "index": 5699}
{"en": "The consequences of Europe’s rush to austerity will be long-lasting and possibly severe.", "zh": "欧洲忙不迭采取紧缩措施的后果将持续很长时间，而且可能会很严重。", "index": 5700}
{"en": "If the euro survives, it will come at the price of high unemployment and enormous suffering, especially in the crisis countries.", "zh": "如果欧元可以幸存下来，那也是以高失业和多重痛苦（特别是对危机国家来说）为代价的。", "index": 5701}
{"en": "And the crisis itself almost surely will spread.", "zh": "而危机本身几乎肯定会蔓延开来。", "index": 5702}
{"en": "Firewalls won’t work, if kerosene is simultaneously thrown on the fire, as Europe seems committed to doing: there is no example of a large economy – and Europe is the world’s largest – recovering as a result of austerity.", "zh": "一边建防火墙一边火上浇油，最后只能是无功而返，这就是欧洲正在做的事情：还没有哪个大型经济体 — — 欧洲是世界最大经济体 — — 曾经通过紧缩带来过复苏。", "index": 5703}
{"en": "As a result, society’s most valuable asset, its human capital, is being wasted and even destroyed.", "zh": "因此，社会最宝贵的资产 — — 人力资本正在被浪费甚至摧毁。", "index": 5704}
{"en": "Young people who are long deprived of a decent job – and youth unemployment in some countries is approaching or exceeding 50%, and has been unacceptably high since 2008 – become alienated.", "zh": "年轻人长期找不到体面的工作 — — 一些国家年轻人失业率正在达到或超过50 % ， 且自2008年以来便一直处于难以接受的高水平 — — 对社会产生了离心感。", "index": 5705}
{"en": "When they eventually find work, it will be at a much lower wage.", "zh": "即使他们最终找到了工作，工资也会低得多。", "index": 5706}
{"en": "Normally, youth is a time when skills get built up; now, it is a time when they atrophy.", "zh": "通常，青年时代是积累技能的时期，而现在的年轻人却在流失技能。", "index": 5707}
{"en": "So many economies are vulnerable to natural disasters – earthquakes, floods, typhoons, hurricanes, tsunamis – that adding a man-made disaster is all the more tragic.", "zh": "如此多的国家在自然灾害面前束手无策 — — 地震、洪水、台风、飓风、海啸，等等 — — 而人造灾难更是雪上加霜。", "index": 5708}
{"en": "But that is what Europe is doing.", "zh": "但这正是欧洲做的事情。", "index": 5709}
{"en": "Indeed, its leaders’ willful ignorance of the lessons of the past is criminal.", "zh": "事实上，欧洲领导人故意忽视历史教训可以说是一种犯罪。", "index": 5710}
{"en": "The pain that Europe, especially its poor and young, is suffering is unnecessary.", "zh": "欧洲 — — 特别是欧洲穷人和年轻人 — — 所正在经历的痛苦是完全可以避免的。", "index": 5711}
{"en": "Fortunately, there is an alternative.", "zh": "幸运的是，我们可以找到替代方案。", "index": 5712}
{"en": "But delay in grasping it will be very costly, and Europe is running out of time.", "zh": "但迟迟不行动将带来高昂的代价，而欧洲正在浪费宝贵的时间。", "index": 5713}
{"en": "Immunization Independence", "zh": "接种独立", "index": 5714}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – The first years of this century have been heady ones for global health.", "zh": "华盛顿—本世纪的头十几年是全球卫生的黄金时代。", "index": 5715}
{"en": "International donors – whether national governments, such as the United States, through its PEPFAR program, or new international funding initiatives, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance – have invested billions of dollars in national disease-control programs and health systems, saving millions of lives.", "zh": "国际出资人 — — 不管是国家政府，如通过PEPFAR项目出资的美国，还是新国际融资计划，如全球遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金以及疫苗联盟（Gavi ） — —在国家疾病控制计划和卫生体系方面投入了数十亿美元，拯救了数百万条生命。", "index": 5716}
{"en": "But now some of the countries that have benefited from these programs face a new challenge: sustaining the gains they have made once external support is withdrawn.", "zh": "但如今一些从这些计划中获益的国家面临一个新挑战：在失去外部支持后继续保持已经取得的成果。", "index": 5717}
{"en": "Ultimately, it is on the basis of this transition that donors’ initiatives – and the health aid enterprise as a whole – will be judged.", "zh": "说到底，出资人的项目 — — 以及作为一个整体的卫生援助事业 — — 都要根据这一转变来予以评判。", "index": 5718}
{"en": "Consider Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.", "zh": "以疫苗联盟Gavi为例。", "index": 5719}
{"en": "Founded in 2000 by a partnership of major donors, international agencies, and vaccine industry leaders, Gavi’s goal is to help the world’s poorest countries introduce new lifesaving vaccines and strengthen their immunization programs.", "zh": "Gavi成立于2000年，是一家由主要出资人、国际机构和疫苗行业领导者组成的合作计划，其目标是帮助全世界最贫困国家引入新的救命疫苗、强化它们的接种计划。", "index": 5720}
{"en": "When a country’s annual per capita income rises above a certain threshold – currently $1,580 – it becomes ineligible for Gavi support.", "zh": "年人均收入达到一定标准 — — 目前是1,580美元 — — 的国家就无法获得Gavi支持。", "index": 5721}
{"en": "Of course, Gavi doesn’t just cut off funding all at once.", "zh": "当然，Gavi不会立即切断资金。", "index": 5722}
{"en": "Support is phased out over a period of several years.", "zh": "支持会在几年的时间里逐步结束。", "index": 5723}
{"en": "During this transition period, countries rapidly increase their financial contribution to their immunization programs and prepare to assume full responsibility.", "zh": "在这个过渡期中，国家要大幅增加免疫计划的财政投入，并准备好完全自力更生。", "index": 5724}
{"en": "This approach, which enables Gavi to concentrate its resources on countries with the greatest need, has been in place since 2010.", "zh": "这一方针自2000年以来实施至今，让Gavi能够将资源集中于最需要的国家。", "index": 5725}
{"en": "But it is now being put to a stern test: one-third of the 73 countries to which Gavi extends support are either in the midst of the transition process or have just completed it.", "zh": "但如今，它面临着严峻的考验：在73个Gavi延长支持的国家中，有三分之一要么正处于过渡期，要么刚刚结束过渡期。", "index": 5726}
{"en": "The group includes countries as different from one another as Armenia, Bhutan, Honduras, and Vietnam, as well as India and Nigeria, which have the largest birth cohorts.", "zh": "这些国家情况各异，如亚美尼亚、不丹、洪都拉斯、越南，也包括出生率最高的国家，如印度和尼日利亚。", "index": 5727}
{"en": "The Gavi model is now under the microscope.", "zh": "Gavi模式正在被放在显微镜下观察。", "index": 5728}
{"en": "Will countries be able to continue purchasing and delivering the vaccines that were introduced with Gavi support?", "zh": "这些国家能够继续购买和普及通过Gavi支持引入的疫苗吗？", "index": 5729}
{"en": "Equally important, will that commitment hold up over time?", "zh": "同样重要的是，这一事业能够坚持下去吗？", "index": 5730}
{"en": "If government budgets are cut, will immunization be protected, along with other essential health services?", "zh": "如果政府预算被削减，接种能与其他基本卫生服务一起得到保护吗？", "index": 5731}
{"en": "Will countries be able to introduce new lifesaving vaccines as they become available?", "zh": "当新的救命疫苗面世时，各国能够引入它们吗？", "index": 5732}
{"en": "Will they sustain and strengthen disease surveillance, so that outbreaks are detected and addressed quickly?", "zh": "它们能够保持和强化疾病监控，以使疾病的爆发得以发现并迅速控制吗？", "index": 5733}
{"en": "Or will fiscal pressures lead, in some countries, to vaccine shortages, to declines in immunization coverage, or even, in the worst case, to vaccines being dropped altogether from national programs, reversing the hard-won gains of recent years?", "zh": "或者，财政压力会导致一些国家出现疫苗短缺、接种覆盖率下降，甚至最糟糕的，疫苗从国家接种计划中除名、近几年来好不容易取得的进步毁于一旦吗？", "index": 5734}
{"en": "The answers to these questions are important not only for the countries themselves, but also for their neighbors, which could be put at risk by backsliding on immunization.", "zh": "这些问题的答案不仅对于这些国家本身十分重要，对于它们的邻国也很重要，因为邻国可能因此出现免疫退步的情况。", "index": 5735}
{"en": "After all, infectious diseases do not respect national boundaries.", "zh": "毕竟，传染病是不会尊重国界的。", "index": 5736}
{"en": "The recent yellow fever epidemic in Angola, for example, spread to its much poorer neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo.", "zh": "比如，最近安哥拉爆发的黄热病疫情就传播到了比它穷得多的邻国民主刚果。", "index": 5737}
{"en": "The experiences of countries that have “graduated” from Gavi assistance will also hold important lessons for other international health programs and their beneficiaries.", "zh": "从Gavi援助中“毕业”的国家的经验也给其他国际卫生项目及其受益国提供了重要的教训。", "index": 5738}
{"en": "With so much at stake, international agencies must do whatever they can to prepare countries for “life after Gavi.”", "zh": "兹事体大，国际机构必须竭尽全力为这些国家准备好“没有Gavi的日子 ” 。", "index": 5739}
{"en": "For some of these countries, especially those that have adopted many new vaccines, obtaining adequate and sustainable financing is one of the most daunting challenges posed by the transition.", "zh": "对其中一些国家，特别是引入了大量新疫苗的国家，获得并保持足够的资金是这一转型最艰巨的挑战。", "index": 5740}
{"en": "Although immunization programs require only a relatively small share of health budgets and yield exceptionally high economic returns, securing the needed financing requires careful planning.", "zh": "尽管免疫计划只需要花费卫生预算的相对较小比例，并且能够带来极高的经济回报，但保证所需资金仍然需要仔细的规划。", "index": 5741}
{"en": "A new resource can help countries as they wrestle with this challenge.", "zh": "新资源有助于各国战胜这一挑战。", "index": 5742}
{"en": "Immunization Financing: A Resource Guide for Advocates, Policymakers, and Program Managers provides information on estimating immunization costs, assessing the pros and cons of various sources of financing, shaping purchasing strategies, and navigating policy processes.", "zh": "《免疫融资：推广者、决策者和项目管理者资源指南 》 （ Immunization Financing: A Resource Guide for Advocates, Policymakers, and Program Managers）提供了关于估算接种成本、评估不同融资资源的利弊、制定采购策略、通过政策流程的信息。", "index": 5743}
{"en": "It does not prescribe one way forward, but rather provides relevant information and expert analysis.", "zh": "它不指定某种做法，而是提供相关信息和专家分析。", "index": 5744}
{"en": "Countries can then evaluate options in light of their own circumstances, and advocates can ask the right questions.", "zh": "各国可以据此根据各自所处环境评估各种选项，推广者也可以提出正确的问题。", "index": 5745}
{"en": "With Gavi support, close to 580 million children have been immunized since 2000, and more than eight million future deaths have been averted.", "zh": "在Gavi的支持下，2000年以来有接近5.8亿儿童获得了接种，超过八百万起未来死亡得到避免。", "index": 5746}
{"en": "These are impressive gains that are worth celebrating.", "zh": "这是值得庆祝的令人瞩目的成就。", "index": 5747}
{"en": "But only if countries successfully negotiate the transition from Gavi support can they be confident that future generations will enjoy the same health protections.", "zh": "但只有各国成功度过取消Gavi支持的过渡期，它们才会有信心让子孙后代获得同样的健康保护。", "index": 5748}
{"en": "After Kyoto", "zh": "京都议定书之后", "index": 5749}
{"en": "The Kyoto Protocol treaty has now entered into force for the 126 nations who have joined it so far.", "zh": "《京都议定书》已对参加该协议的126国生效。", "index": 5750}
{"en": "Now is the time to start thinking about how to engage all nations, including large emitters, in conversations about what to do after the treaty’s expiration in 2012.", "zh": "现在是时候考虑如何使所有的国家，包括那些气体排放大国，参与讨论2012年，即该议定书失效后的应对方法了。", "index": 5751}
{"en": "This is exactly what the European Commission did recently by providing its first strategy for a post-Kyoto era, which will be discussed by the European Council next March.", "zh": "这正是欧盟执委会最近针对后京都时代提出的第一个策略所要做的，这一策略将在三月份交由欧盟理事会讨论。", "index": 5752}
{"en": "While the Kyoto Protocol represents only a modest reduction of carbon emissions in industrialized countries – 5.2% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990 levels, with varying targets for individual countries – real progress can be made in sustaining development efforts and preserving our planet.", "zh": "尽管京都议定书已使工业国家二氧化碳排放量略有轻微下降 — — 伴随着各国不一的目标，2008至2012年间二氧化碳排放量比1990年下降了5.2 % — —但是真正的进展却要通过致力于持续发展和保护我们的星球才能实现。", "index": 5753}
{"en": "But first, all countries must integrate climate concerns into policy planning, and improve their governance in key sectors such as energy, infrastructure, and transport.", "zh": "但是首先，所有国家必须将对气候的关注与政策制定融合一体，加强对能源、基础设施和交通等重要部门的控制。", "index": 5754}
{"en": "In other words, we must act in accordance with the recognition that climate change and its effects on people in both rich and poor countries remains a threat to global security.", "zh": "换言之，在对气候变化有所认识并且意识到它给发达国家和贫困国家人民带来的影响将对全球安全构成威胁这一点后，我们必须采取相应措施。", "index": 5755}
{"en": "At the end of the day, the long-term approach is likely to include a rules-based system, an incentives system, and investments in technology change.", "zh": "最后，这一长期计划应该包括一个标准式系统、一个激励体系以及技术改革所需的投资资金。", "index": 5756}
{"en": "Increasingly, adaptation at the national level will be recognized as a major issue that will require appropriate funding.", "zh": "国家对此计划的应用将日益成为一个需要充足资金的主要项目。", "index": 5757}
{"en": "Dealing with the impacts of climate change and with emission reductions should not be mutually exclusive, but complementary.", "zh": "对气候变化影响和减排量这两个问题的处理并非相互排斥，而是互补的。", "index": 5758}
{"en": "Looking ahead to the post-Kyoto world offers us the chance to start a new dialogue and to look at new options on climate change.", "zh": "对后京都时代的展望将让我们有机会开启一场新对话，并开始寻求解决气候变化问题的新方案。", "index": 5759}
{"en": "Nations could set the more ambitious goal of limiting the long-term change in the earth’s temperature, and then assign emissions rights among countries in such a way that will eventually limit temperature increases to an acceptable level.", "zh": "各国可以将“长期限制地球温度的变化”作为更具雄心的目标，随后在各国之间分配排放权，最终在一个可以接受的水平内限制温度上升。", "index": 5760}
{"en": "This would require increasing investments in energy research and development for new and improved technologies – a process that needs to be supported by stronger public-private partnerships.", "zh": "这将需要在能源研究和开发新型技术方面持续加大投入 — — 需要更为强有力的公私营机构的合作予以支持。", "index": 5761}
{"en": "Up to now, with only 15% of the world’s population, rich countries have been responsible for more than 75% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and thus most of the environmental damage.", "zh": "目前为止，只占世界人口15%的发达国家却排放了占世界总量75%以上的二氧化碳，是大部分环境破坏的罪魁祸首。", "index": 5762}
{"en": "However, it is the developing countries – and thus the world’s poor – who are most vulnerable.", "zh": "然而，发展中国家，也就是全世界的贫困人民 — — 却饱受苛责。", "index": 5763}
{"en": "It is unrealistic to ask poor countries, where more than 1.6 billion people do not have access to clean energy and technologies, to bear the costs associated with the much needed technological change.", "zh": "要那些居住在贫困国家、无法获得清洁能源和技术的16亿人民去承担技术改革所需的费用是不现实的，尽管这样的技术改革非常必需。", "index": 5764}
{"en": "Working with partners, the World Bank is supporting financial strategies to assist developing countries in meeting the costs caused by climate change.", "zh": "世界银行与其合作伙伴一起，正致力于为发展中国家提供金融策略以帮助他们支付气候变化带来的费用。", "index": 5765}
{"en": "To date, over $1 billion dollars in Global Environment Facility (GEF) grants, together with about $8 billion in co-financing, have been committed to programs related to climate change.", "zh": "迄今为止，来自全球环境基金（GEF）的十亿多美元资金，与80亿美元的联合资金一起，已承诺将用于气候变化相关的项目。", "index": 5766}
{"en": "While the regulatory mechanisms of both Kyoto and the European Trading Scheme have contributed to the establishment of an emerging market for carbon trading, interested parties are now concerned about the immediate future.", "zh": "京都议定书和欧洲贸易计划的调节机制促进了日益兴起的碳贸易的确立，使得有兴趣的政党现在开始对不久的将来表示担忧。", "index": 5767}
{"en": "Without a regulatory framework beyond 2012, the window of opportunity for initiating project-based transactions will close by 2006/2007.", "zh": "若2012年后还没有一个管理框架出台，那么创立一个项目式交易的机会之窗将在2006或2007年之前关闭。", "index": 5768}
{"en": "Given the long lead time between project preparation and the first benefits of emissions reductions, project developers have only a few years to act before carbon payments cease to make a meaningful contribution to project finance in the current context.", "zh": "如果项目准备期与减排第一次利润出现之间还有一段很长的前置期，那么，在碳交易结算停止之前，项目发展者只有短短几年的时间在当前情况下为该项目资金创造一个有价值的贡献。", "index": 5769}
{"en": "Developing infrastructure projects is a long process that requires 3-7 years from identification, through licensing, financing, and construction, and finally to the first certification of carbon emission reductions.", "zh": "发展基础设施项目是一个漫长的过程，从确立到获得许可、筹措资金，到最后证明碳化物排放减少需要3到7年的时间。", "index": 5770}
{"en": "Therefore, projects need to be operational at the latest by 2007.", "zh": "因此，该项目必须在2007年之前进入操作阶段。", "index": 5771}
{"en": "The World Bank has been instrumental in advancing carbon finance as a viable development tool, and in facilitating private-sector participation in the market.", "zh": "世界银行已经开始将碳资金当作一项可行的发展工具来加以促进推动，并且鼓励私营机构加入此市场。", "index": 5772}
{"en": "The Bank is focused on representing the interests of its borrowing countries, helping them to develop assets for carbon trading according to their own priorities.", "zh": "世界银行将重点放在维护其债国的利益之上，帮助他们根据各自的优势来发展碳贸易的资产。", "index": 5773}
{"en": "But, without a commitment by governments to limit greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2012, the carbon market will remain uncertain, and the private sector – vital to the market’s success – is unlikely to expand its participation in a meaningful and sustained way.", "zh": "但是，若政府不作出在2012年后降低温室气体排放的承诺，碳市场将仍然难以捉摸，对该市场成功与否至关重要的私营机构，将不愿意持续地、针对性地扩大它们的参与范围。", "index": 5774}
{"en": "According to a recent World Bank-supported survey of companies interested in carbon finance, only one in five respondents declared that they were interested in buying post-2012 emissions reductions.", "zh": "根据最近由世行资助的一项对有意碳资金的公司的调查来看，只有五分之一的公司宣称他们有兴趣购买2012年后的减排量。", "index": 5775}
{"en": "Now is the chance to look forward and enlist the global community – with no exclusions, although with differentiated responsibilities – in the pursuit of a more secure world, one that avoids the dire risks of environmental degradation and social conflict implied by inaction.", "zh": "现在正是考虑将来并争取全球所有国家（尽管各国责任各有不同，但无一例外）支持的大好机会，这样才能寻求一个更为安全的世界，避免环境恶化带来的可怕后果和消极以待将引发的社会争端。", "index": 5776}
{"en": "After Paris", "zh": "巴黎之后", "index": 5777}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The attacks in Paris by individuals associated with the Islamic State, coming on the heels of bombings in Beirut and the downing of a Russian airliner over the Sinai Peninsula, reinforce the reality that the terrorist threat has entered a new and even more dangerous phase.", "zh": "纽约—与伊斯兰国有关的个体对巴黎进行了袭击，此前，贝鲁特发生爆炸事件，更有一家俄罗斯班机在西奈半岛上空坠毁。 这一切强化了恐怖主义威胁正在进入更危险的新阶段的现实。", "index": 5778}
{"en": "Just why the Islamic State decided to stage its attacks now is a matter for conjecture; it may well be that it is going global to compensate for its recent loss of territory in Iraq.", "zh": "伊斯兰国为什么要组织袭击现在仍停留在猜测阶段；很有可能是因为它因为最近在伊拉克丧失领土而追求全球报复。", "index": 5779}
{"en": "But whatever the rationale, what is certain is that a clear response is warranted.", "zh": "但不管原因如何，可以确定的是必然会有明确的反应。", "index": 5780}
{"en": "Actually, the challenge posed by the Islamic State calls for several responses, as there is no single policy that promises to be sufficient.", "zh": "实际上，伊斯兰国所构成的挑战需要多重反应，因为没有哪项单独的政策足以应对。", "index": 5781}
{"en": "Multiple efforts are needed in multiple domains.", "zh": "我们需要多重领域的多重反应。", "index": 5782}
{"en": "One is military.", "zh": "其一是军事。", "index": 5783}
{"en": "More intense attacks from the air against Islamic State military assets, oil and gas facilities, and leaders are critical.", "zh": "加大针对伊斯兰国军事资产、石油和前燃气设施以及领导人的空中打击力度至关重要。", "index": 5784}
{"en": "But no amount of air power on its own will ever get the job done.", "zh": "但不论多大的空中力量也无法单枪匹马解决战斗。", "index": 5785}
{"en": "A substantial ground component is needed if territory is to be taken and held.", "zh": "如果想要占领并守住领土，就必须大量派遣地面部队。", "index": 5786}
{"en": "Unfortunately, there is no time to build a partner force on the ground from scratch.", "zh": "不幸的是，已经没有时间从零开始建设一支地面友军。", "index": 5787}
{"en": "This has been tried and failed, and Arab states are unable or unwilling to constitute one.", "zh": "曾经做过这一尝试，但以失败告终，而阿拉伯国家也无法或不愿组建这样一支地面部队。", "index": 5788}
{"en": "The Iraqi army has also come up short.", "zh": "伊拉克军队让人失望。", "index": 5789}
{"en": "Iran-backed militias only make matters worse.", "zh": "伊朗支持的民兵只能让事情变得更糟。", "index": 5790}
{"en": "The best option is to work more closely with Kurdish troops and select Sunni tribes in both Iraq and Syria.", "zh": "最佳的选择是与库尔德军队更加紧密地合作，并遴选伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派部落。", "index": 5791}
{"en": "This means providing intelligence, arms, and being willing to send more soldiers – more than the 3,500 Americans already there, and possibly on the order of 10,000 – to train, advise, and help direct a military response.", "zh": "这意味着提供情报、武装并准备派遣更多士兵 — — 目前只有3,500美军，这是不够的，也许需要上万人的数量级 — — 训练、充当顾��和帮助指导军事行动。", "index": 5792}
{"en": "Such an effort must be collective.", "zh": "这一方针必须以集体行动的方式落实。", "index": 5793}
{"en": "It can be informal – a “coalition of the willing” that would include the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Arab states, and even Russia under the right circumstances – or carried out under NATO or United Nations auspices.", "zh": "可以是非正式的形式 — — 一个包括美国、法国、英国、阿拉伯国家，甚至在正确的前提下包括俄罗斯在内的“志愿联盟 ” — —也可以在北约或联合国的支持下进行。", "index": 5794}
{"en": "The packaging matters less than the results.", "zh": "如何组织不重要，结果更重要。", "index": 5795}
{"en": "Symbolic declarations of war, though, ought to be considered with caution, lest the Islamic State appear to be winning every day it does not lose.", "zh": "但象征性地宣战要慎之又慎，以免造成伊斯兰国不输便是赢的表象。", "index": 5796}
{"en": "A diplomatic component is no less essential to any response.", "zh": "外交反应的重要性不下于任何其他反应。", "index": 5797}
{"en": "Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is a recruiting tool for the Islamic State and must go.", "zh": "叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德是伊斯兰国招募人手的工具，他必须下台。", "index": 5798}
{"en": "But any successor government must be able to maintain order and not permit the Islamic State to exploit a power vacuum, as it has done in Libya.", "zh": "但继任政府必须能够维持秩序，不允许伊斯兰国利用权力真空，重蹈利比亚的覆辙。", "index": 5799}
{"en": "Moreover, orderly political change can be brought about only with Russian and Iranian support.", "zh": "此外，有序的政治变革必须在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下进行。", "index": 5800}
{"en": "One near-term option worth exploring is a coalition government still headed by a representative of the Alawite minority, a concession that could well be the price of moving Assad out of power.", "zh": "一个值得探索的短期选择方案是成立一个仍以阿拉维少数派代表为首的联合政府，这是让巴沙尔远离权力的必要的让步。", "index": 5801}
{"en": "In principle, and over time, a more representative national government could come about, although talk of holding elections in 18 months is fanciful under any scenario.", "zh": "理论上，借以时日，可能产生一个更具代表性的国家政府，尽管不论在何种情形下，要在18个月内举行选举都只是幻想。", "index": 5802}
{"en": "But reaching a compromise along these lines could well be impossible.", "zh": "但在这些方面形成妥协也许非常困难。", "index": 5803}
{"en": "This is why increased military effort is needed to bring about larger and more secure enclaves that could better protect civilians and take the fight to the Islamic State.", "zh": "因此，必须加码军事手段建立更大更多的飞地以更好地保护平民和打击伊斯兰国。", "index": 5804}
{"en": "Syria is not a normal country in any sense, and it will not be for a long time, if ever.", "zh": "不论从何种角度看，叙利亚都不再是正常国家，并且在相当长的一段时间（如果不是永远的话）都无法成为正常国家。", "index": 5805}
{"en": "A Syria of enclaves or cantons is a more realistic model for the foreseeable future.", "zh": "在可预见的未来，一个由飞地和根据地组成的叙利亚才是更加现实的模式。", "index": 5806}
{"en": "Other indispensable elements of any effective strategy include expanded help for or pressure on Turkey to do much more to stem the flow of recruits to the Islamic State.", "zh": "有效战略的其他不可或缺要素包括给予土耳其更大的帮助或压力，令其花更大的力气阻止应募者流入伊斯兰国。", "index": 5807}
{"en": "And Turkey, along with Jordan and Lebanon, need more financial assistance as they shoulder the bulk of the refugee burden.", "zh": "土耳其以及约旦和黎巴嫩需要更多的金融支持，因为它们承担了大部分难民负担。", "index": 5808}
{"en": "Arab and Muslim leaders can do their part by speaking out to challenge the Islamic State’s vision and delegitimize its behavior.", "zh": "阿拉伯和穆斯林领导人也可以做出贡献，挑战伊斯兰国的愿景、破坏伊斯兰国行为的合法性。", "index": 5809}
{"en": "There is also a domestic dimension to policy.", "zh": "国内政策也大有可为。", "index": 5810}
{"en": "Homeland security and law enforcement – increasing protection both at borders and within them – will have to adjust to the increased threat.", "zh": "祖国安全和执法情况 — — 加强边界和内部保护 — — 必须根据日益严重的威胁作出调整。", "index": 5811}
{"en": "Retail terrorists – individuals or small groups carrying out armed attacks against soft targets in open societies – are extremely difficult to deal with.", "zh": "零散恐怖分子 — — 针对开放社会的软目标实施武装袭击的个体或小集团 — — 最难对付。", "index": 5812}
{"en": "The threat and the reality of attacks will require greater social resilience and quite possibly a rebalancing of individual privacy and collective security.", "zh": "袭击的威胁和现实需要更大的社会恢复力，也许还需要平衡个人隐私和集体安全之间的关系。", "index": 5813}
{"en": "What is also required is a dose of realism.", "zh": "除此之外还需要现实主义。", "index": 5814}
{"en": "The struggle against the Islamic State is not a conventional war.", "zh": "与伊斯兰国的斗争不是一场传统战争。", "index": 5815}
{"en": "We cannot eradicate or destroy it any time soon, as it is as much a network and an idea as it is an organization and a de facto state that controls territory and resources.", "zh": "我们无法短时间内根除或消灭伊斯兰国，因为它有一个网络、一套思想，也因为它是一个控制着领土和资源的组织、一个事实上的国家。", "index": 5816}
{"en": "Indeed, terrorism is and will continue to be one of the scourges of this era.", "zh": "诚然，恐怖主义是并将继续是现时代一场灾难。", "index": 5817}
{"en": "The good news, though, is that the threat posed by the Islamic State to the Middle East and the rest of the world can be dramatically reduced through sustained, concerted action.", "zh": "但好消息是，伊斯兰国给中东和世界其他地区所造成的威胁可以通过持续的集体行动大幅削弱。", "index": 5818}
{"en": "The main lesson of the attack on Paris is that we must be prepared to act over time and place alike.", "zh": "巴黎袭击的主要教训是我们必须随时随地做好行动准备。", "index": 5819}
{"en": "After Pax Americana?", "zh": "美式和平之后", "index": 5820}
{"en": "NEW YORK – It has become popular to suggest that when the dust settles from the global financial crisis, it may become clear that the United States-led post-war world has come to an end.", "zh": "纽约 - - 一段时间以来，有人热衷于说当全球金融危机尘埃落定之时，美国主导的战后世界将会结束。", "index": 5821}
{"en": "If so, the global system that has secured peace, security, openness, and economic growth over the past six decades could be in grave danger.", "zh": "如果这样，在过去六十年中确保了和平、安全、开放以及经济增长的全球体制就会处于严重危险之中。", "index": 5822}
{"en": "Inspired by American leadership since World War II’s end, Europe, then Japan, then much of Asia and the world rose to new levels of prosperity; the world economy globalized upon the foundation of international institutions, norms, and standards; and foreign students educated in American universities returned home with new ideas about free markets, entrepreneurship, and democracy.", "zh": "欧洲、日本和亚洲和世界其他大部分地区受到美国战后领导地位的鼓舞相继实现了繁荣。 世界经济在国际体制、规则以及标准的基础上实现了全球化。", "index": 5823}
{"en": "The US military’s protective umbrella gave large swaths of the world a vacation from war, making it easier for them to focus on economic growth and regional integration.", "zh": "在美国大学接受教育的外国学生把有关自由市场、创业精神以及民主的新观点带回国内。 美国军队的保护伞让世界上的大部分地区免于战火，使得这些地区更为容易地专心致志地从事经济增长和地区联合。", "index": 5824}
{"en": "America not only took the lead role in building the institutions of a globalizing world – the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, NATO– it also became the model that many other countries looked to for inspiration.", "zh": "美国不仅在建立联合国、世界银行、国际货币基金组织以及北约等全球化世界的机制中发挥了主导作用，而且，其他许多国家也寻求美国模式的灵感。", "index": 5825}
{"en": "After eight years of compromised American leadership, a botched war of choice in Iraq, failure to take the lead in global efforts to address climate change, Abu Ghraib, Guantánamo Bay, running up a $10 trillion debt, and igniting a global financial crisis – America’s once-glittering model has lost a good deal of its luster and America’s leadership has been questioned by many.", "zh": "它限于伊拉克战争泥潭，未能领导世界处理气候变化问题，在阿布格莱布虐囚，在关塔纳摩基地关押人犯，赤字高达十万亿美元并且引发了全球金融危机。 美国一度耀眼的模式已经风光不再，而且许多人质疑美国的领导地位。", "index": 5826}
{"en": "The point was driven home at the 7th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) in Beijing this autumn, where European and Asian leaders began exploring ideas for a new global financial structure.", "zh": "今年秋天在北京举行的第七次亚欧首脑会议证明了这一点。 在这次会议上，亚欧各国领导人开始研究建立新的全球金融结构。", "index": 5827}
{"en": "For much of the past 60 years, it would have been impossible to hold such a fundamental dialogue without US participation. Today, it is almost becoming a new global norm that neither the international committee nor the US is prepared for.", "zh": "在过去六十年的大部分时间里，人们不可能在没有美国参加的情况下举行这样的重大对话，这一全球性的情况国际社会和美国都没有做好准备。", "index": 5828}
{"en": "Despite talk about American decline, the world is not prepared for a post-American era.", "zh": "尽管人们谈论美国衰落，但是世界对后美国时代还是没有做好准备。", "index": 5829}
{"en": "As irksome as some of America’s actions have been, particularly over the past eight years, America remains the world’s most critical champion of the progressive values that have lifted hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty and political repression.", "zh": "尽管美国的某些行为令人厌烦，但是在促进将数以亿计的人口从极端贫困和政治迫害中解脱出来的进步价值观上，美国还是一马当先。", "index": 5830}
{"en": "If the US were to play a relatively smaller role in world affairs, and no other system was created to pick up the slack, these values could be at risk.", "zh": "如果美国在世界事务上发挥相对较小的作用而且没有建立其他制度来弥补空缺，那么，这些价值观就会受到危险。", "index": 5831}
{"en": "Although many states now hide behind an alleged universal principle of inviolable state sovereignty, for example, would the international community really want to go back to the old model where states did whatever they wanted to their citizens within the confines of their own borders?", "zh": "尽管有些国家躲藏在所谓的主权不可侵犯的普遍原则上，国际社会是否果真愿意回到国家可以对其人民为所欲为的老模式之中呢？", "index": 5832}
{"en": "Do countries around the world believe that they will be better off if the global trade system breaks down or international shipping lanes become less secure?", "zh": "世界各国是否相信，如果全球贸易体系崩溃或者国际航运线路不再安全它们的日子会更好呢？", "index": 5833}
{"en": "Are countries like China willing to step up and pay their fair share of dues to keep the UN running (China currently pays 2.1% of UN dues, compared to more than 25% for the US), or to capitalize revised international financial institutions or the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria in a meaningful way?", "zh": "像中国这样的国家是否愿意增加联合国会员经费以保持联合国运转(中国目前的经费是2.1 % ， 美国是25 % ) ？ 还是愿意为改制后的国际金融机构或全球基金注资来确实消除艾滋病、肺结核以及霍乱呢？", "index": 5834}
{"en": "Unless other countries become more willing to step forward for the common good, a post-American world could quickly become a far more frightening environment than what it would replace.", "zh": "除非其他国家更加愿意为人类共同事业挺身而出，否则，后美国的世界将会马上要比原先的更为令人害怕。", "index": 5835}
{"en": "To make its case for a continued global leadership role, America must, however, step up to the plate.  While the go-it-alone impulse of the Bush administration has been discredited by its consequences, the inverse lessons regarding how important collaborative action is in today’s interconnected world are still being learned.", "zh": "美国为了继续领导世界就必须承担责任。 布什政府的单边主义冲动由于其后果而受到非议，但是反过来，如今相互依存的世界中相互合作的重要性人们还是在摸索。", "index": 5836}
{"en": "Even at the apex of American power, America’s greatness was always based on inspiring others, and the opportunities for building market share in that particular category remain unlimited.", "zh": "即使在美国鼎盛时期，其伟大之处也是鼓舞激励他人，而在这一特殊领域中建立市场份额的机会还是不可限量。", "index": 5837}
{"en": "It is impossible to overestimate how significant a step Barack Obama’s election is in this direction, but America’s actions over the coming years will be the ultimate determinant of whether the power of America’s model can be restored.", "zh": "奥巴马当选美国总统在这一方向迈出了重大一步，对此人们不可低估。 但是，美国在未来几年中采取的行动将会最终决定美国模式的力量是否可以恢复。", "index": 5838}
{"en": "America can and should, for example, become the global leader combating climate change through major investments in alternative energy, conservation, and energy efficiency, and by taking strong actions at home to reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions.  It should transform its immigration policy to recruit the best and brightest people from around the world to move to the US and become citizens, and remain the world’s leading champion of open markets, especially during the current financial crisis.", "zh": "美国可以而且应该领导世界，通过大量投资于替换能源、节能、能源效率以及采取大力行动减少温室气体排放来处理解决气候变化问题。 它应该改变移民政策，在全球招募俊才前来美国并成为美国公民，以及继续推行公开市场，特别是当前金融危机之下。", "index": 5839}
{"en": "Closing the prison at Guantánamo and reaffirming America’s commitment to international law and human rights will also be an important step in this direction.", "zh": "关闭关塔纳摩监狱并且重申美国对国际法和人权的承诺也将是这一方向的重要一步。", "index": 5840}
{"en": "The world wants to believe in an America that lives up to its own best values.", "zh": "世界想要相信遵守自身最佳价值观的美国。", "index": 5841}
{"en": "The prospect of a truly global community of nations working together to achieve the greater good for all is indeed exciting.", "zh": "国际社会各国共同努力实现共同事业这一前景的确令人激动。", "index": 5842}
{"en": "But, although America has been far from perfect over the last six decades, the end of the pax Americana has the potential to create a dangerous void in international affairs.", "zh": "但是，尽管美国在过去六十年中并非完美无缺，美式和平的终结有可能在国际事务中造成危险的真空。", "index": 5843}
{"en": "If the world is going to shift in the direction of a new and more globally democratic system, other nations will need to meaningfully step forward to assume new responsibilities.", "zh": "如果世界转向一个新的、更为全球性民主的体制，那么，其他国家就需要有效地采取行动承担新的责任。", "index": 5844}
{"en": "It is in America’s and the world’s interest that they do so.  The evidence of this will be seen not only in global institutions but also in places like Darfur, Zimbabwe, and Burma.", "zh": "它们这样做符合美国和世界的利益。 不仅在全球性机构、而且在达尔富尔、津巴布韦以及缅甸等地方都可以得到验证。", "index": 5845}
{"en": "Until this happens, let us all hope that America can get back on track as the global champion of collaborative action to address the world’s greatest challenges and work with as many other countries  as possible to move collectively in the right direction.", "zh": "在这以前，还是让我们希望美国再次成为共同处理解决世界最严重挑战的带头人，并且于尽量多的国家合作朝向正确的方向前进。", "index": 5846}
{"en": "After the Guns of August", "zh": "八月冲突之后", "index": 5847}
{"en": "The Middle East is a place where the dust hardly ever settles.", "zh": "中东战争的尘埃从未落定。", "index": 5848}
{"en": "When it occasionally does, even for a short interval – as UN Resolution 1701 for cessation of hostilities in Lebanon seems to be holding – it is time to take stock of events in the hopes that a responsible debate may influence those in power.", "zh": "每当偶尔闪现出瞬间的希望¾就像平息黎巴嫩冲突的联合国1701号决议让人们看到了曙光¾人们真的应该抓住机会认真思考整个事件的前前后后，期望一场负责任的辩论能够对当权者造成影响。", "index": 5849}
{"en": "Let’s start with the United States.", "zh": "就从美国说起吧。", "index": 5850}
{"en": "President George W. Bush has been short on neither initiatives nor catchy slogans and acronyms.", "zh": "乔治·W·布什总统既拿不出可行的方案，也提不出令人心动的口号和名词。", "index": 5851}
{"en": "Recent years are littered with them: “Global War on Terror” (GWOT), “Road Map,” “Middle East Partnership Initiative “ (MEPI), “Broader Middle East and North Africa” (BMENA) – originally “Greater Middle East Initiative (GMEI) – Democracy Assisted Dialogue (DAD), and so on.", "zh": "近年来充斥着他平庸的创意 ： “ 对恐怖主义的全球战争 ” （ GWOT ） 、 “路线图 ” 、 “中东伙伴关系计划 ” （ MEPI ） 、 “泛中东和北非倡议 ” （ BMENA）¾也就是原来的“泛中东倡议 ” （ GMEI）¾“民主支持的对话 ” （ DAD）等等诸如此类。", "index": 5852}
{"en": "His latest reverie, envisioned in the thick of the recent fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, was the New Middle East (NME), with US clients Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia serving as the pillars of regional order.", "zh": "他在以色列和真主党交战正酣之际最新提出的幻想被命名为“新中东计划 ” （ NME ） ， 在这项计划里，美国的委托人以色列、埃及、约旦和沙特阿拉伯被当成了地区秩序的支撑力量。", "index": 5853}
{"en": "But like all his previous initiatives since the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington almost five years ago now, the NME ran into trouble from the outset.", "zh": "但正如他在五年前纽约和华盛顿遭袭后提出的所有计划一样 ， “ 新中东计划”从一开始就麻烦重重。", "index": 5854}
{"en": "Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced its birth while rejecting an immediate ceasefire in Lebanon.", "zh": "国务卿康多莉扎·赖斯在宣布该计划诞生的同时，否决了黎巴嫩立即停火的提案。", "index": 5855}
{"en": "Her poor timing made the initiative appear heartless, as thousands of civilians were being uprooted, killed, or maimed by Israel’s efficient but ruthless artillery and air force.", "zh": "她不恰当的时间选择让新计划毫无诚意可言。 在这项计划诞生的同时，成千上万的平民百姓在以色列高效但却无情的炮火和空袭中流离失所、无辜丧命或者身负重伤。", "index": 5856}
{"en": "This so embarrassed the three Arab NME partners that each raced to distance itself from the US-sponsored initiative.", "zh": "“新中东计划”令三位阿拉伯伙伴深感不安，它们都迫不及待地同这项由美国提出的计划划清界限。", "index": 5857}
{"en": "Saudi Arabia, which had remained silent for nearly two weeks, did so with a $500 million contribution to rebuilding devastated areas of Lebanon and another billion to support Lebanon’s threatened currency.", "zh": "沙特阿拉伯在沉默了近两个星期后，终于宣布捐款5亿美元重建被战火摧毁的黎巴嫩区域，不仅如此，沙特还承诺拨出10亿美元支持岌岌可危的黎巴嫩货币。", "index": 5858}
{"en": "Egypt’s heir apparent Gamal Mubarak followed suit in the fourth week of the fighting by heading a 70-member delegation on a solidarity visit to Beirut.", "zh": "黎以交战进入第四个星期时，埃及政权当然的继承人贾迈勒·穆巴拉克(Gamal Mubarak)也站到了黎巴嫩一边，率领70人的代表团访问贝鲁特。", "index": 5859}
{"en": "But, rather than earning him the respect of an outraged Egyptian public, revelations in the opposition press that his plane had to obtain a safe passage and authority to land from the Israelis garnered only howls of derision.", "zh": "但那次访问不但没能赢得愤怒的埃及公众对他的尊重，反而使他成为了笑柄，因为反对派媒体上披露他的专机被迫为安全通行和降落请求以色列人的批准。", "index": 5860}
{"en": "As for America, anything it touches in the Middle East has become radioactive, even for longstanding clients and friends.", "zh": "至于美国，它在中东的举手投足无一例外地臭名昭著，即便是长期委托人和朋友也避之唯恐不及。", "index": 5861}
{"en": "In the course of maneuvering to delay the UN ceasefire, Bush and Rice continually reiterated the need for a Security Council resolution that deals forcefully with “the roots of the problem.”", "zh": "在为推迟联合国停火协议四处游说的同时，布什和赖斯翻来覆去地强调必须通过一项安理会决议，用武力来应对“问题的根源 ” 。", "index": 5862}
{"en": "Of course, for them and for Israel, this was Hezbollah and the need to eradicate or at a minimum disarm it and force its fighters to a safe distance from settlements and towns in northern Israel.", "zh": "勿庸置疑，对美国和以色列来讲，这个根源就是黎巴嫩真主党，必须将其彻底消灭，至少也要解除武装，迫使真主党的战士远离以色列北部的城镇和犹太定居点。", "index": 5863}
{"en": "While this is a reasonable demand, the rest of the Middle East – and, indeed, much of the world, including Europe – regard the root cause of the conflict as Israeli intransigence and arrogance, together with America’s blind support for it.", "zh": "尽管这个要求当属合理，但其他中东国家¾实际上甚至包括欧洲在内的世界上大部分国家¾都把以色列的强硬傲慢，以及美国对它的盲目支持看做是冲突的根源所在。", "index": 5864}
{"en": "Both America and Israel have cited foot-dragging in implementing UN Resolution 1559, which calls for disarming all non-state actors in Lebanon and the deployment of government forces all the way to the southern border.", "zh": "美国和以色列都称联合国第1559号决议执行不力，决议内容要求解散黎巴嫩所有非政府武装，并把政府部队一直部署到黎南部边境。", "index": 5865}
{"en": "But for years the US and Israel have not uttered a word about the dozens of UN resolutions, going back as far as Resolution 49 on partition in 1947, which called for the establishment of distinct Arab and Jewish states on roughly half of Mandated Palestine.", "zh": "但多年以来，美国和以色列却从未对多达几十项其他联合国决议发表过任何评论，这种情况最早可以追溯到1947年的第49号决议，该决议要求把巴勒斯坦的托管土地分成两半，分别建立起阿拉伯以及犹太国家。", "index": 5866}
{"en": "This and numerous other resolutions seeking redress for injustices toward Palestinians have been ignored by the US.", "zh": "试图改变巴勒斯坦人所受不公正待遇的上述以及其他决议美国全都置之不理。", "index": 5867}
{"en": "Thus, for 300 million Arabs and more than one billion Muslims the “root cause” of the Middle East conflict is not Hezbollah.", "zh": "正因为如此，对3亿阿拉伯人和10多亿穆斯林来说，黎巴嫩真主党并不是中东战争的“最终根源 ” 。", "index": 5868}
{"en": "As its leader, Hassan Nasrallah aptly put it, “We are just a reaction to chronic injustice.”", "zh": "真主党领袖哈桑·纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)形容得十分贴切 ， “ 真主党只不过是长期不公所缔造的产物。 ”", "index": 5869}
{"en": "It may well be that there is more than one root cause – every party to the conflict has a favorite one.", "zh": "冲突的根本原因很可能不只一种¾各方对此都有着不同的说辞。", "index": 5870}
{"en": "There is no point in belaboring whose pain is greater or whose root cause is deeper.", "zh": "分析哪一方的痛苦更剧烈或根源更深刻没有任何意义。", "index": 5871}
{"en": "In fact, arguing over grievances merely drives the sides further apart.", "zh": "事实上，对不满情绪无休止的争论只会使各方离得更远。", "index": 5872}
{"en": "The long overdue UN Resolution 1701 may, with its adoption, indicate that all parties are fatigued, or could no longer withstand international pressure.", "zh": "迟来太久的联合国第1701号决议的生效可能表明各方都已经感到疲惫，抑或是再也忍受不了国际上的压力。", "index": 5873}
{"en": "This is good news for all concerned and provides an opportunity to tackle each party’s “root cause.”", "zh": "这对各方来讲都是好消息，给它们带来了解决各自根源问题的一次机遇。", "index": 5874}
{"en": "Seizing the opportunity requires that humility rather than moral supremacy prevails.", "zh": "抓住这次机遇需要虚怀若谷，而不是盲目自大。", "index": 5875}
{"en": "Empathy, not ethnocentrism, should be the order of the day now that the guns are falling silent and we have rediscovered the limits of military force.", "zh": "在炮火逐渐平息、武力界限再度浮现的时刻，需要设身处地地为对方考虑，而不是盲目愚蠢的自我中心。", "index": 5876}
{"en": "But if we have learned anything at all from the tragic assassinations of the region’s greatest peacemakers, Anwar Sadat and Yitzhak Rabin, it is that the guns do not remain silent for long.", "zh": "但如果中东地区最伟大的和平使者安瓦尔·萨达特和伊扎克·拉宾被刺的悲剧曾经留给过我们什么教训，那就是战火熄灭的时间不会太长。", "index": 5877}
{"en": "During any lull, a fanatic from either side could jump to center stage and, through an act of utter madness, kick up the settling dust and dash the hopes of the many on both sides who still long for a lasting peace.", "zh": "在短暂的宁静时刻，来自任何一方的狂热分子随时有可能跳到前台，用绝对的疯狂行为重新点燃战争的怒火，毁灭双方爱好和平的人们对永久和平的期望。", "index": 5878}
{"en": "After the Millennium Development Goals", "zh": "千年发展目标之后", "index": 5879}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – In 2000, 189 countries collectively adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration, which evolved into a set of concrete targets called the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).", "zh": "美国剑桥—2000年，189个国家一致接受了联合国千年宣言，并将其纳入了被称为千年发展目标（MDG）的一系列具体计划中。", "index": 5880}
{"en": "These ambitious targets – ranging from halving extreme poverty and reducing maternal mortality by three-quarters to achieving universal primary schooling and halting (and beginning to reverse) the spread of HIV/AIDS – are supposed to be met by the end of 2015.", "zh": "这些雄心勃勃的计划 — — 从将贫困降低一半和让产妇死亡率减少四分之三到让所有孩子都接受小学教育和让艾滋病（毒）停止传播（甚至减少 ） — —应该在2015年底之前完成。", "index": 5881}
{"en": "As the deadline approaches, development experts are debating a new question: What comes next?", "zh": "随着截止期的临近，发展专家们开始讨论新的问题：接下去怎么办？", "index": 5882}
{"en": "It is virtually certain that many of the MDGs will not have been met by the end of 2015, but there have been striking successes in some areas.", "zh": "几乎可以肯定的是，很多MDG在2015年底之前是实现不了的，但在不少领域还是取得了极大的成功。", "index": 5883}
{"en": "For example, the goal of halving extreme poverty (measured by the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day) will likely be achieved ahead of time, largely thanks to China’s phenomenal growth.", "zh": "比如，将极端贫困减少一半（以每天生活费不到1.25美元的人群数量为衡量标准）的目标就有可能提前完成，其中中国的显著增长功不可没。", "index": 5884}
{"en": "At the same time, there is little evidence to suggest that those successes were the result of the MDGs themselves.", "zh": "与此同时，没有证据显示这些成功是MDG本身的结果。", "index": 5885}
{"en": "China implemented the policies that engineered history’s greatest poverty eradication program prior to, and independently from, the Millennium Declaration and the MDGs.", "zh": "中国的史上最伟大减贫计划因国内政策而起，发生于千年宣言和MDG之前，也独立于后两者。", "index": 5886}
{"en": "Clearly, however, the MDGs were a public-relations triumph, which is not to belittle their contribution.", "zh": "不过，毫无疑问，MDG称得上公关胜利，这么说并不是要贬低它们的作用。", "index": 5887}
{"en": "Like all worthwhile PR efforts, the MDGs served to raise awareness, galvanize attention, and mobilize action – all for a good cause.", "zh": "与所有有价值的公关活动一样，MDG有助于提高认识、吸引注意力和动员行动，均是积极影响。", "index": 5888}
{"en": "They amplified the global conversation about development and defined its terms.", "zh": "它们扩大了关于发展问题的全球对话，并决定了对话的主题。", "index": 5889}
{"en": "And there is evidence that they got advanced countries to pay more attention to poor nations.", "zh": "有证据表明，它们还使发达国家更加关注穷国。", "index": 5890}
{"en": "Indeed, the MDGs possibly had their clearest impact on aid flows from rich to poor countries.", "zh": "事实上，MDG最显而易见的影响可能就在于富国向穷国的援助流。", "index": 5891}
{"en": "A study by Charles Kenny and Andy Sumner for the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC, suggests that the MDGs not only boosted aid flows, but also redirected them toward smaller, poorer countries, and toward targeted areas like education and public health.", "zh": "华盛顿全球发展中心的查尔斯·肯尼（Charles Kenny）和安迪·萨姆纳（Andy Sumner）的研究表明，MDG不但刺激了援助流，还将援助流定向至更小、更穷的国家以及教育和公共卫生等更为具体的领域。", "index": 5892}
{"en": "However, aid was not directly linked to performance and results, and it is much more difficult to know whether it had the desired impact overall.", "zh": "不过，援助与表现和效果并不直接相关，了解援助是否达到了理想效果要困难得多。", "index": 5893}
{"en": "The MDGs encompass eight goals, 21 targets, and 60 indicators.", "zh": "MDG包括八个大目标（goal ） ， 21个小目标（target）和60项指标。", "index": 5894}
{"en": "Much criticism has focused on the use of these numerical targets and indicators, which, skeptics argue, are misspecified, mismeasured, and divert attention from equally important areas.", "zh": "许多批评的矛头指向这些数量化的小目标和指标。 质疑者认为，它们的方向和衡量手段都是错误的，导致了注意力从其他同等重要领域移开。", "index": 5895}
{"en": "But these complaints miss the point.", "zh": "但这些指摘并没有抓住重点。", "index": 5896}
{"en": "Any effort that is concrete and implementable needs to monitor the results, and setting clear numerical targets is the best way to do so.", "zh": "任何具体且可实施的目标都需要检测结果，而设置清晰的数量目标是检测结果的最佳方法。", "index": 5897}
{"en": "Still, a central paradox plagues the MDGs.", "zh": "但仍有一个核心悖论困扰着MDG。", "index": 5898}
{"en": "The Millennium Declaration was meant to be a compact between the world’s rich and poor countries.", "zh": "千年宣言不啻发达国家和贫穷国家之间的契约。", "index": 5899}
{"en": "Poor countries promised to refocus their development efforts while rich countries pledged to support them with finance, technology, and access to their markets.", "zh": "贫穷国家承诺重新调整发展努力，而发达国家承诺向它们提供金融、技术和市场渠道支持。", "index": 5900}
{"en": "But, oddly, of the eight goals, only the last one deals with “global partnership,” or what rich countries can and should do.", "zh": "但是，奇怪的是，在八个大目标中，只有最后一个是关于“全球合作 ” ， 即发达国家可以和应该怎么做的。", "index": 5901}
{"en": "Even here, the MDGs contain no numerical target for financial aid or any other aspect of rich countries’ assistance, in contrast to the highly specific poverty-related targets set for developing countries.", "zh": "即使在这里，MDG仍没有为金融援助或其他发达国家援助设定数量化目标，这与针对发展中国家的极其具体的贫困相关目标形成了鲜明对比。", "index": 5902}
{"en": "It is perhaps telling that the “progress charts” prepared by the United Nations Development Program, the agency charged with reporting on progress toward achieving the MDGs, track only Internet usage under that goal.", "zh": "具有说明力的是，联合国发展计划署 — — 负责报告MDG进展情况的机构 — — 所准备的“进展图”所追踪的唯一一个该大目标相关数字是互联网的使用情况。", "index": 5903}
{"en": "Why we need a global effort to convince developing countries to do what is good for them is not clear.", "zh": "为什么我们需要全球措施来使发展中国家相信怎样做才是最好的？", "index": 5904}
{"en": "Poverty reduction and human development should be the first order of business for governments in these countries, with or without the MDGs.", "zh": "这个问题还没有明确答案。 减贫和人类发展应该是这些国家政府的首要职责，不管有没有MDG都是如此。", "index": 5905}
{"en": "It is true, of course, that these governments often pursue different goals, for political, military, and other reasons.", "zh": "当然，实事求是地说，出于政治、军事和其他原因，这些国家的政府通常会追求不同的大目标。", "index": 5906}
{"en": "But it is wishful thinking to believe that they can be persuaded to act otherwise by international declarations that lack enforcement mechanisms.", "zh": "但认为可以通过缺少强制机制的国际宣言说服它们改变做法纯属一厢情愿。", "index": 5907}
{"en": "If we have learned one thing in the development business, it is that real reform cannot be bought with donors’ money, let alone with vague promises of money.", "zh": "如果说发展事务对我们有什么教育意义的话，那就是真正的改革不可能是赞助者的金钱带来的，更不用说只是虚无的承诺资金支持了。", "index": 5908}
{"en": "Equally problematic, the MDGs implicitly assume that we know how to achieve development targets, and that only resources and political will are missing.", "zh": "同样有问题的是，MDG隐含地假设我们知道如何达到发展小目标，所缺乏的只是资源和政治意愿。", "index": 5909}
{"en": "But it is doubtful that even well-intentioned policymakers have a good handle on, say, how to raise secondary-school completion rates sustainably or reduce maternal mortality.", "zh": "但即使是有心的决策者，他是否能处理好（比如）持续提高中学完学率和降低产妇死亡率等问题仍然值得怀疑。", "index": 5910}
{"en": "Many development economists would argue that significant improvements in governance and political institutions are required before such goals can be achieved.", "zh": "许多发展经济学家会说，在大目标可以实现之前，必须发生治理和政治制度的重大进步。", "index": 5911}
{"en": "The most that rich countries can do is to provide an enabling environment for the benefit of developing countries that are willing and able to take advantage of it.", "zh": "发达国家最能给出的援助是提供促进性的环境，让愿意且有能力利用该环境的发展中国家收益。", "index": 5912}
{"en": "These considerations suggest an obvious direction for the next iteration of the MDGs.", "zh": "这些考虑清晰地给出了下一代MDG的方向。", "index": 5913}
{"en": "First, a new global compact should focus more directly on rich countries’ responsibilities.", "zh": "首先，新的全球契约应该更直接地专注于发达国家的责任。", "index": 5914}
{"en": "Second, it should emphasize policies beyond aid and trade that have an equal, if not greater, impact on poor countries’ development prospects.", "zh": "第二，它应该强调援助和贸易之外的、对贫穷国家的发展前景具有同样（如果不是更大）推动的政策。", "index": 5915}
{"en": "A short list of such policies would include: carbon taxes and other measures to ameliorate climate change; more work visas to allow larger temporary migration flows from poor countries; strict controls on arms sales to developing nations; reduced support for repressive regimes; and improved sharing of financial information to reduce money laundering and tax avoidance.", "zh": "这些政策应该包括：碳税和其他改善气候变化的措施、增加贫穷国家临时性人口迁徙的工作签证、严格控制对发展中国家的军售、减少对压迫性政权的支持，以及改善金融信息的共享状况以打击洗钱和逃税。", "index": 5916}
{"en": "Notice that most of these measures are actually aimed at reducing damage – for example, climate change, military conflict, and financial crime – that otherwise results from rich countries’ conduct.", "zh": "注意，这些措施的大部分实际上都是为了减少发达国家援助行为的伤害 — — 比如气候变化、军事冲突和金融犯罪。", "index": 5917}
{"en": "“Do no harm” is as good a principle here as it is in medicine.", "zh": "“不产生伤害”这一医学格言在这里同样是一条很好的原则。", "index": 5918}
{"en": "This kind of reorientation will not be easy.", "zh": "制定这样的新目标绝非易事。", "index": 5919}
{"en": "Advanced countries are certain to resist any new commitments.", "zh": "发达国家必然会抵制新承诺。", "index": 5920}
{"en": "But most of these measures do not cost money, and, as the MDGs have shown, setting targets can be used to mobilize action from rich-country governments.", "zh": "但这些措施大多并不需要金钱，MDG也表明，设定小目标可以用于动员发达国家政府的行动。", "index": 5921}
{"en": "If the international community is going to invest in a bold new public-relations initiative, it might as well focus on areas where the potential payoffs are the greatest.", "zh": "如果国际社会欲投资雄心勃勃的新公关计划，那么把目光集中在潜在收益比最高的领域是不错的选择。", "index": 5922}
{"en": "After the Promised Land", "zh": "追逐理想之地", "index": 5923}
{"en": "LONDON – At the height of the Arab uprisings last spring, many Europeans were gripped by nightmare visions of a tsunami of migrants crashing against the continent’s shores.", "zh": "伦敦 — — 去年春天，在阿拉伯起义愈演愈烈之际，许多欧洲人被大批移民将涌入欧洲的可怕远景困扰。", "index": 5924}
{"en": "The wave never hit, but its specter fed a tenacious anti-immigrant populism that has concealed an important new trend: migration to Europe – and to the United States – has largely stalled.", "zh": "事实并非如此，但是这种恐惧感催生了强烈的反移民民粹主义，这掩盖了一种重要的新趋势：移民欧洲和美国基本上停滞了。", "index": 5925}
{"en": "In many countries, more immigrants are leaving than are arriving, owing mainly to the economic crisis that has drained jobs in the West.", "zh": "对于许多国家而言，移民国外的人要比入境的移民要多，这主要是因为经济危机导致西方的就业岗位减少。", "index": 5926}
{"en": "That reversal is one of the great under-reported stories of 2011 (and of the preceding two years), and the numbers are startling.", "zh": "这种倒退的情况是2011年（以及2011年之前的两年）报道严重不足的地方之一，各项数据令人吃惊。", "index": 5927}
{"en": "Consider Spain, which is on track to lose more than a half-million residents by 2020.", "zh": "拿西班牙来说，到2020年，其居民将减少50多万。", "index": 5928}
{"en": "By contrast, between 2002 and 2008, Spain’s population grew by 700,000 a year, driven largely by immigration.", "zh": "相比之下，2002年至2008年期间，西班牙的人口每年增长70万，这主要得益于移民。", "index": 5929}
{"en": "The trends are similar elsewhere in Europe.", "zh": "欧洲其他国家的趋势也大同小异。", "index": 5930}
{"en": "While this fact alone will not quiet opponents of immigration, it does give countries more breathing room to repair and strengthen badly broken systems for receiving and integrating newcomers.", "zh": "尽管这一事实无法让移民的反对者守住嘴巴，但是它让各国有了更多的余地，修复和加固严重受损的制度，以便接受新移民并让他们融入本国。", "index": 5931}
{"en": "Although rapidly aging Western countries are unable to attract the immigrants they need, they allow millions who are already there to suffer discrimination and abuse.", "zh": "尽管快速老龄化的西方国家无法吸引其所需的移民，但是它们还让数百万已经移居于此的移民遭受歧视和虐待。", "index": 5932}
{"en": "Detentions and deportations take place under sometimes terrible conditions.", "zh": "有时在极其恶劣的环境下扣押和驱逐出境。", "index": 5933}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the international community collectively fails to protect vast populations of vulnerable migrants, such as the millions stranded by the recent conflicts in North Africa.", "zh": "与此同时，国际社会都没有保护大量易受伤害的移民群体，比如因最近北非冲突陷入困境的数百万人。", "index": 5934}
{"en": "Undoubtedly, rising anti-immigrant populism must be confronted.", "zh": "毋庸置疑，日益高涨的反移民民粹主义情绪必须加以遏制。", "index": 5935}
{"en": "While polling suggests that attitudes are influenced more by ethnicity than religion, both help to define identities and mindsets.", "zh": "但是民调显示，民众的态度较之宗教，更多的是受到种族的影响，种族和宗教都有助于确定身份和思维模式。", "index": 5936}
{"en": "Political parties in France, Switzerland, and the Netherlands (to name a few) have run successful campaigns that scapegoat immigrants.", "zh": "法国、瑞士和荷兰等国的政党都成功地发起了嫁祸移民的运动。", "index": 5937}
{"en": "Moreover, governments from Alabama to Hungary are passing laws that undermine what should be migrants’ rights.", "zh": "此外，从亚拉巴马到匈牙利，各地政府正在通过法律，削弱移民应有的权利。", "index": 5938}
{"en": "Italy recently adopted harsh “emergency” decrees that target migrants by making undocumented entry and residence a criminal offense.", "zh": "最近，意大利采取了针对移民的严厉的“紧急”法案，将非法入境和居住视为犯罪。", "index": 5939}
{"en": "Anti-immigrant rhetoric from the political extremes has fed into mainstream political discourse.", "zh": "政治极端派反移民的言论已经进入政治讨论的主流。", "index": 5940}
{"en": "European leaders trip over themselves to declare, one more forcefully than the next, that multiculturalism is dead.", "zh": "欧洲领导人搬起石头砸自己的脚并且一浪高过一浪地宣布，多元文化主义已经灭亡。", "index": 5941}
{"en": "Dutch politician Geert Wilders, whose Freedom Party is informally part of the governing coalition, did them one better by being charged with incitement to anti-Muslim hatred.", "zh": "荷兰政客格特•怀尔德是自由党人，自由党不是正式执政联盟的一部分，他受到了激起反穆斯林敌意的指控，比其他人做的要好。", "index": 5942}
{"en": "In the US, alligator-filled moats and electrified border fences have featured in the current presidential campaign.", "zh": "在美国边境，壕沟中都是短吻鳄，还有带电的围栏，这显示出了当前总统竞选的特色。", "index": 5943}
{"en": "Such attacks on immigration might offer some instant political gratification, but their net result is to cleave societies whose cohesion is already seriously challenged by the economic crisis.", "zh": "这样对移民进行攻击或许能够带来一些即时的政治利益，但是最终结果必定会使社会分裂，而社会的凝聚力已经受到了经济危机严重影响。", "index": 5944}
{"en": "Growing discrimination in employment, housing, and education affects not just immigrants and their children; it harms our societies as a whole.", "zh": "在就业、住房和教育方面日益严重的歧视问题不仅会影响移民及其后代，也不利于我们整个社会。", "index": 5945}
{"en": "With the lull in net immigration, we now have a window of opportunity to address these shortcomings.", "zh": "由于净移民停滞，现在我们拥有了克服这些不足的机会之窗。", "index": 5946}
{"en": "Debunking the myths about migration – that most immigrants enter unlawfully, for example, or that immigration displaces existing workers – would be a good place to start.", "zh": "揭露移民方面的错误 — — 比如，大多数移民非法入境或移民导致现有工人失业 — — 是一个良好的开端。", "index": 5947}
{"en": "It would also be useful to explain that immigration is necessary for prosperity and growth in almost all OECD countries.", "zh": "移民几乎对所有经合组织成员国的繁荣和经济增长都必不可少，这种解释也是非常有用的。", "index": 5948}
{"en": "If aging societies in the West and elsewhere (like Japan) fail to get immigration right, they will be woefully unprepared when they confront the real tidal wave: the retirement of baby boomers in the coming two decades.", "zh": "如果西方以及其他地方（比如日本）的老龄化社会没有正确对待移民，当真正的浪潮来临时，它们将不知所措：婴儿潮一代在今后20年内退休。", "index": 5949}
{"en": "The gaps in these countries’ labor markets – from software specialists to physicians to home health aides – will be immense.", "zh": "这些国家的劳动力市场 — — 从软件专家、医生到家庭医疗助理等 — — 将出现巨大的缺口。", "index": 5950}
{"en": "The European Union’s labor force will decline by almost 70 million workers in the next 40 years; in the absence of significant net immigration (combined with a much higher retirement age), European economies and social safety nets will shrivel.", "zh": "欧盟的劳动力将在今后40年减少近7000万名工人，如果没有大量的净移民，不大幅提高退休年龄，欧洲经济体和社会保障体系将力不从心。", "index": 5951}
{"en": "The priorities are clear.", "zh": "优先任务非常清楚。", "index": 5952}
{"en": "We need to understand better how our economies will evolve in the coming decades, and to redesign our educational systems to produce workers with usable skills.", "zh": "我们需要更好地了解自己的经济体在今后数十年将如何演化，需要重新设计我们的教育体制，从而培养出掌握有用技能的工人。", "index": 5953}
{"en": "And, where it is clear that immigrants will be needed, we must be able to identify, welcome, integrate, and protect them.", "zh": "此外，在明确需要移民的地方，我们必须能够认可、欢迎并保护他们，让他们融入到我们当中来。", "index": 5954}
{"en": "Meanwhile, our most fundamental institutions – schools, police, and the courts – must be re-engineered to reflect and respond to the diversity of our communities, which is now a fact of life.", "zh": "与此同时，我们最基本的机构 — — 学校、警察局和法院 — — 必须重新调整以反映和应对我们社区的多样性，这是如今的真实生活。", "index": 5955}
{"en": "Countries must learn to work together to achieve these goals, few of which can be reached by going it alone.", "zh": "各国必须学会互相合作实现这些目标，单打独斗能实现的目标寥寥无几。", "index": 5956}
{"en": "If our toolbox were empty, our inaction might be understandable.", "zh": "如果我们的工具箱空空如也，那么我们无所作为或��可以理解。", "index": 5957}
{"en": "But examples of smart migration practices abound.", "zh": "但是采取明智移民举措的例子比比皆是。", "index": 5958}
{"en": "Canada and the Philippines, for instance, have a well-functioning accord that protects the rights of temporary workers.", "zh": "譬如，加拿大和菲律宾拥有保护临时工权利的协议，效果相当好。", "index": 5959}
{"en": "Sweden has developed legislation that minimizes bureaucracy for companies that need foreign workers.", "zh": "瑞典已经通过立法，为需要外国工人的公司尽量简化了行政手续。", "index": 5960}
{"en": "And important advances have been made in ensuring that immigrant children receive the education that they need to become full members of society.", "zh": "在确保移民的孩子接受成为正式公民所需的教育方面也取得了重要进展。", "index": 5961}
{"en": "Progress is being made on the global level as well, despite the economic crisis and populist headwinds.", "zh": "尽管受到经济危机和民粹主义的影响，全球而言还是取得了进展。", "index": 5962}
{"en": "In June, the International Labor Organization’s member states overwhelmingly approved the Domestic Workers Convention, which will significantly increase protections for a vulnerable group of workers – the majority of whom are migrants.", "zh": "6月份，国际劳工组织成员国以压倒性优势通过了《国内工人公约 》 ， 这将大大增加对易受伤害的劳动群体 — — 其中大多数是移民 — — 的保护。", "index": 5963}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the Global Forum on Migration and Development, established in 2007, has quickly become an important means of fostering knowledge and partnerships.", "zh": "与此同时，成立于2007年的移民与发展全球论坛迅速成为了增加知识和增进伙伴关系的重要途径。", "index": 5964}
{"en": "The reason for growing international cooperation is simple: countries everywhere are affected by migration, and, increasingly, they are experiencing immigration and emigration simultaneously.", "zh": "国际合作日益增多的原因很简单：世界各国都受到移民的影响，移民入境和本国居民移居海外在同时进行着。", "index": 5965}
{"en": "Indeed, roughly one-third of migrants nowadays move between developed countries; one-third move between developing countries; and only one-third move from the developing to the developed world.", "zh": "实际上，目前约三分之一的移民在发达国家之间流动；三分之一的移民在发展中国家之间流动；只有三分之一的移民在发展中国家和发达国家之间流动。", "index": 5966}
{"en": "Highly skilled workers, such as bankers and engineers, are flocking to China.", "zh": "有高技能的工人，比如银行家和工程师，蜂拥去了中国。", "index": 5967}
{"en": "Mexico, known primarily as a country of emigration, is home to millions of migrants from Central America.", "zh": "墨西哥以主要的移民出口国出名，现在有来自中美洲的数百万移民在此安家。", "index": 5968}
{"en": "Millions of people in Southeast Asia venture to the Middle East to work, but millions more cross borders within the region.", "zh": "有数百万东南亚人冒险到中东工作，但是还有数百万人跨境到该地区的其他国家。", "index": 5969}
{"en": "The list goes on.", "zh": "这样的例子不胜枚举。", "index": 5970}
{"en": "When it comes to migration, we are all in the same boat – and that boat is leaking.", "zh": "关于移民，我们都坐在同一条船上，而这条船是漏水的。", "index": 5971}
{"en": "Starting in 2012, countries should redouble their efforts to fix it.", "zh": "从2012年开始，各国必须加倍努力解决这个问题。", "index": 5972}
{"en": "A Future without Precedent", "zh": "前所未有的未来", "index": 5973}
{"en": "JERUSALEM – In my nearly nine decades of life, I cannot recall a time in which the past was so irrelevant to policymaking.", "zh": "耶路撒冷—以我将近90岁的年纪，想不起有哪个时候的决策与过去如此毫无关联。", "index": 5974}
{"en": "All of today’s significant developments went unpredicted by anyone.", "zh": "今天的一切重大发展都是所有人前所未见的。", "index": 5975}
{"en": "Experts studied the past, but, constrained by old paradigms, they could not discern the future.", "zh": "专家们研究过去，但他们被旧范式限制住了头脑，无法清醒地看到未来。", "index": 5976}
{"en": "Today’s dynamic complexity, in which a science-based, fast-changing global economy makes so many more phenomena interdependent, prevents us from foreseeing the future through linear extrapolations of the past.", "zh": "今天，世界充满了动态的复杂性，基于科学、快速变迁的全球经济使得如此之多的现象互相交错，以至于我们无法通过根据过去的线性外推来预测未来。", "index": 5977}
{"en": "The only certainty is that the future will be defined by scientific progress and innovation, which cannot be known ahead of time.", "zh": "唯一确定的是，未来将由科学进步和创新决定，但科学进步和创新是无法预知的。", "index": 5978}
{"en": "As a result, the traditional power of states and leaders is declining; in today’s global economy, innovators, not politicians, wield the most influence.", "zh": "因此，传统的国家和领袖权力在削弱；在当今全球经济中，创新者，而不是政客，才拥有最大的影响力。", "index": 5979}
{"en": "The globalized economy affects every state, yet no single state can determine the outcomes, because science and technology are borderless.", "zh": "全球化经济影响着所有国家，但没有哪个国家能够单枪匹马决定结果，因为科学技术是无国界的。", "index": 5980}
{"en": "Global companies wish to do business worldwide, eroding not just sovereignty, but also racism and prejudice, as well as significantly weakening nationalism.", "zh": "全球公司希望在全世界范围开展业务，这不但削弱了主权，也削弱了种族主义和偏见，并极大地抑制了民族主义。", "index": 5981}
{"en": "This transformation has placed the world in the hands of a younger generation, more technologically savvy than their parents and connected to one another through social networks that are not confined by territory, language, or government.", "zh": "这一转型把世界交给了年青一代，他们比老一辈更精于技术，通过打破领土、语言和政府界限的社交网络彼此相连。", "index": 5982}
{"en": "The young leaders who created Facebook and Google have had a greater global impact than many statesmen and generals.", "zh": "创立Facebook和谷歌的青年领袖要比许多政治家和将军拥有更大的全球影响力。", "index": 5983}
{"en": "These young people are also the leaders of erupting political protest movements.", "zh": "这些青年人也是风起云涌的政治示威运动的领导人。", "index": 5984}
{"en": "The “Arab Spring,” the tent demonstrations in Israel, Occupy Wall Street, and the protests in Russia reveal not a clash of civilizations, but a battle of generations.", "zh": "“阿拉伯之春 ” 、 以色列的露营示威 、 “ 占领华尔街”以及俄罗斯大游行所揭示的并不是文明的冲突，而是代际战争。", "index": 5985}
{"en": "The young generation understands that the way states and economies are currently run is unfit for the new era.", "zh": "年青一代明白，国家和经济的现有运行模式已经落后于新时代了。", "index": 5986}
{"en": "Yet there are political “hitchhikers” who want to exploit the recent awakening, not by promoting an agenda of freedom, but by imposing a different type of coercion.", "zh": "但也有意在利用当下觉醒潮的“政治浪人 ” ， 他们不推行自由日程表，反而实行另一种形式的高压。", "index": 5987}
{"en": "In the Arab world, it is mainly extreme Islamists who are hijacking the young generation’s wave, stealing their revolution.", "zh": "在阿拉伯世界，极端伊斯兰主义者正在绑架年青一代的运动，窃取革命果实。", "index": 5988}
{"en": "Israel has reacted positively to the will of the young generation, but it cannot and should not intervene in events in the Arab world.", "zh": "以色列积极响应年青一代的志愿，但不能也不应该干预阿拉伯世界的事务。", "index": 5989}
{"en": "Our hearts are with the rebelling youngsters and their legitimate yearning for freedom and basic rights to express themselves, choose their leaders, and earn their own living.", "zh": "我们的心与叛逆青年们在一起，支持他们对自由和表现自己、选择自己的领导人、自力更生过自己的生活的权利的诉求。", "index": 5990}
{"en": "Israelis wait for the day when our country will no longer be the region’s only democracy, because being an island of prosperity in a sea of poverty is unnatural.", "zh": "以色列人期待着我们的祖国不再是该地区唯一民主国家的那一天，因为成为贫困汪洋中的繁荣孤岛是极不自然的。", "index": 5991}
{"en": "Yet there is a real concern that the extremists, who are politically well organized, are seeking to gain control by the ballot over less-organized liberals, thus preventing peace and stability.", "zh": "但是，我们也有现实顾虑：有着良好政治组织的极端主义者正在寻求通过投票打败组织松散的自由派赢得控制权，从而阻止和平与稳定。", "index": 5992}
{"en": "Fundamentalist radicals cannot provide real solutions to the region’s basic problems.", "zh": "原教旨主义激进派不可能为该地区的基本问题提供现实解决方案。", "index": 5993}
{"en": "The social changes now underway threaten their way of life, which includes discrimination against women and a ban on modern education.", "zh": "当今社会的变化正在威胁他们的生活 — — 歧视妇女、禁止现代教育。", "index": 5994}
{"en": "But only profound reforms of traditional authority can pave the way towards freedom and growth.", "zh": "但唯有对传统权威的深远改革才能铺平通向自由和增长之路。", "index": 5995}
{"en": "Israel can serve as an example to others striving to reach economic prosperity and social freedom, because its success is due to the fact that the country had absolutely nothing at the start.", "zh": "对于正在追求经济繁荣和社会自由者，以色列可以作为一个样板，因为以色列的成功可以说完全是从一无所有起家的。", "index": 5996}
{"en": "We returned to our homeland, rich with history, but devoid of natural resources.", "zh": "我们回到了我们的故乡，这里有着丰富的历史，但自然资源贫乏。", "index": 5997}
{"en": "Israel was left with only one resource: its human capital.", "zh": "以色列只有一种资源：人力资本。", "index": 5998}
{"en": "So we invested in education and science, and today we have the world’s highest percentage of scientists and patents per capita.", "zh": "因此我们投资于教育和科学，而如今，我们拥有全世界最高比例的科学家和人均专利数量。", "index": 5999}
{"en": "Roughly 95% of our agriculture is hi-tech.", "zh": "我们的农业95%是高科技农业。", "index": 6000}
{"en": "We use less water and yield more crops per acre than any other country in the world.", "zh": "我们用更少的水种出比世界上其他国家更多的粮食亩产。", "index": 6001}
{"en": "What Israel can do, others can do as well.", "zh": "以色列能够做到的，其他国家也能做到。", "index": 6002}
{"en": "We will gladly offer a helping hand to whoever is willing to reach for it.", "zh": "只要愿意向这方面努力，我们十分乐意施以援手。", "index": 6003}
{"en": "Together, in peace with our neighbors, we can create a region of hope, development, and success.", "zh": "与邻邦保持和平，我们就可以开创一个希望、发展和成功的地区。", "index": 6004}
{"en": "In particular, we must do everything in our power to end the conflict with the Palestinians.", "zh": "尤其重要的是，我们必须尽一切力量终结与巴勒斯坦的冲突。", "index": 6005}
{"en": "Israel was not born, and it is not Israel’s destiny, to govern another people.", "zh": "以色列不是生来就主宰其他民族的，这也决不是以色列的命运。", "index": 6006}
{"en": "We are sincerely interested in the establishment of a Palestinian state living peacefully side-by-side with Israel, the democratic state of the Jewish people.", "zh": "我们真心实意地乐意看到能与犹太人民主国家以色列手拉手和平相处的巴勒斯坦国的建立。", "index": 6007}
{"en": "For us, peace is both a moral imperative and a national-security strategy, because resolving the conflict would help to stabilize the region by neutralizing the extremists who seek to manipulate today’s popular movements to advance their radical agenda.", "zh": "对我们来说，和平既是道德目标，也是国家安全战略，因为解决冲突将有助于通过中和试图操纵当下群众运动从而实现其激进目标的极端分子实现地区稳定。", "index": 6008}
{"en": "The international community can support these efforts by providing incentives to countries that choose freedom and progress.", "zh": "国际社会可以通过向选择自由和进步的国家提供激励来支持我们的努力。", "index": 6009}
{"en": "At the same time, determined and decisive policies must be taken against extremists.", "zh": "与此同时，必须对极端分子采取坚决果断的政策。", "index": 6010}
{"en": "In particular, Iran is a fount of moral corruption that spearheads extremism and halts reform, crushing the legitimate protest of its own citizens and acting against the brave Syrians now fighting for their freedom.", "zh": "特别是伊朗，这个国家是道德腐败的源头，极端主义的先锋队，改革的绊脚石；它镇压本国公民的合法示威，与正在为自由而斗争的勇敢的叙利亚人民作对。", "index": 6011}
{"en": "Iran also uses proxies to instigate terror against moderate forces in the Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, and Iraq.", "zh": "伊朗还通过其代理人教唆人们对巴勒斯坦权力机构、黎巴嫩和伊拉克的温和派大搞恐怖主义。", "index": 6012}
{"en": "If Iran is successful in its plan to acquire nuclear weapons, its leaders could shake the Middle East and encourage more extremism and violence.", "zh": "如果伊朗成功地实现其获得核武器的计划，那么其领导人将能够震慑中东，掀起更多的极端主义和暴力。", "index": 6013}
{"en": "Israel will defend itself if Iran continues to call for its destruction.", "zh": "如果伊朗继续倒行逆施，以色列将坚决捍卫自己。", "index": 6014}
{"en": "However, the threat is not to Israel alone; Iran is a danger to the peace and stability of the entire world.", "zh": "不过，感到威胁的并非只有以色列；伊朗是全世界和平与稳定的潜藏危机。", "index": 6015}
{"en": "The world’s democracies have declared that they will not allow Iran to possess nuclear arms; it is their duty to follow through on that commitment, before doing so becomes impossible.", "zh": "民主国家已经宣布，不会容忍伊朗拥有核武器；民主国家应该坚决履行这一承诺，不能等到大势已去才有所动作。", "index": 6016}
{"en": "Beyond the short-term challenges ahead, we all have a duty to profoundly change the way we prepare our children to cope with today’s new world.", "zh": "除了眼前的短期挑战，我们所有人都有责任彻底改变我们为子孙后代准备的应对当今新世界的方法。", "index": 6017}
{"en": "In an era where yesterday has become almost irrelevant and we can hardly predict tomorrow, the role of education must allow all children to reach their highest potential.", "zh": "在一个过去几乎毫无关联、未来几乎无法预测的时代，并需通过教育让所有孩子获得充分的潜能开发。", "index": 6018}
{"en": "Today’s educators should inspire our children towards creativity and innovation.", "zh": "现时代的教育者应该激发孩子的创造力和创新力。", "index": 6019}
{"en": "Self-expression is as important as free expression.", "zh": "自我表现与言论自由一样重要。", "index": 6020}
{"en": "I write this in the 88th year of my life, but not because I have learned from experience.", "zh": "我已88岁之龄写下这篇文字，但我之所以这么说，并非是出于我的经验。", "index": 6021}
{"en": "On the contrary, experience is overrated, often constraining the courage needed to face tomorrow and build an unprecedented new world.", "zh": "相反，经验的作用被高估了，通常会阻挠直面明天、建设前所未有的新世界所需要的勇气。", "index": 6022}
{"en": "The future is already here; there is no point in looking back.", "zh": "未来就在那里，没有必要回头看。", "index": 6023}
{"en": "Against Simplification", "zh": "反对简单化", "index": 6024}
{"en": "NEW YORK – It is said that Americans have a genius for simplification.", "zh": "纽约 — — 都说美国人善于将事情简单化。", "index": 6025}
{"en": "Gradually, however, the quest for it has become a global trend, one that continues to conquer new territories, just as blue jeans once did.", "zh": "但是，追求简单化早已逐渐成为一种全球趋势，简单化之风逾吹愈劲，就像当年的牛仔裤风尚。", "index": 6026}
{"en": "The speed of our daily life is visibly increased – and not for the better – by this unstoppable evolution.", "zh": "在这一不可阻挡的变化的影响下，我们的日常生活节奏在加快，这一点谁都能看出，但生活并没有因此变得更好。", "index": 6027}
{"en": "The tyranny of pragmatism seems to mark all of the complex dilemmas of our time.", "zh": "实用主义大行其道似乎已成为现时代复杂困境的共同特征。", "index": 6028}
{"en": "Too many valid choices are ignored or skirted through the routine of short-cuts.", "zh": "人们总是希望走捷径，这使得许多有效选择被忽略和屏蔽了。", "index": 6029}
{"en": "Nowhere is this trend more damaging than in today’s mercantile approach to art.", "zh": "说到这一趋势的害处，没有比艺术的商业化更大的了。", "index": 6030}
{"en": "Even the much-praised notion of competition seems fake and cynically manipulated by the “corporate” mentality that now pervades the world of culture – by the financial pre-selection that determines what publishers, producers, and other impresarios will support.", "zh": "当前的文化世界弥漫着“公司”思维 — — 从财务角度出发预先选定发行商、制作商及其他艺术经理的支持对象 — — 这使得即便是广受赞誉的“竞争”概念看起来也是假的，被可悲地操纵着。", "index": 6031}
{"en": "Just imagine what might have happened with the works of, say, Proust, Kafka, Musil, Faulkner, or Borges had they been subjected to mass-market competition like shoes or cosmetics.", "zh": "想象一下，将普鲁斯特、卡夫卡、穆西尔、福克纳和博尔赫斯像鞋子和化妆品那样置于畅销市场的竞争中去会是怎样一幅情景。", "index": 6032}
{"en": "Culture is a necessary pause from the daily rat race, from our chaotic and often vulgar political surroundings, and it is a chance to recover our spiritual energy.", "zh": "文化是快节奏生活中必须的调节剂，让我们从混乱可鄙的政治环境中暂时得到解脱；同时也让我们的精神力量得到恢复。", "index": 6033}
{"en": "Great books, music, and paintings are not only an extraordinary school of beauty, truth, and good, but also a way of discovering our own beauty, truth, and good – the potential for change, of bettering ourselves and even some of our interlocutors.", "zh": "伟大的书、音乐和绘画不仅是非比寻常的真善美学校，也是我们自身真善美的发现之路 — — 它们给我们带来改变潜能，完善我们甚至我们的对话者。", "index": 6034}
{"en": "If this respite and refuge is gradually narrowed and invaded by the same kind of “products” as those that dominate the mass market, we are condemned to be perpetual captives of the same stunted universe of “practicalities,” the ordinary agglomeration of clichés packaged in advertisements.", "zh": "如果这一缓冲器和避难所逐渐被某些主宰畅销市场的“产品”所压缩和侵蚀，我们就将沦为这一畸形“实用”世界的永久奴隶，沉沦在被广告包装着得常规陈腐题材集合中。", "index": 6035}
{"en": "I was thinking again about these old and seemingly unsolvable questions during my re-reading of a quite challenging novel by a close friend and a great writer, not very present in the vivid landscape of American letters of today.", "zh": "我是在阅读一本叛逆小说时开始再次思考这些老生常谈但似乎无法解决的问题的。 这本小说的作者是我的一位好友，一位了不起的作家，但在当今美国生机勃勃的文坛中并不经常露脸。", "index": 6036}
{"en": "The theme, style, and echo of his work says a lot, I think, about our simplified world.", "zh": "我认为，他的作品的主题、风格以及反响是对我们简单化世界的写照。", "index": 6037}
{"en": "The novel is Blinding, by Claudio Magris.", "zh": "这部小说名叫《炫目 》 （ Blinding ） ， 克劳迪奥·马格里斯（Claudio Magris）著。", "index": 6038}
{"en": "Hailed in Europe as one of the great novels of the twentieth century, Blinding arrived in America only after a great delay, and never received the attention that it deserved.", "zh": "本书在欧洲大受欢迎，被目为20世纪的伟大作品之一，但很晚才进入美国，而且一直没有受到应有的关注。", "index": 6039}
{"en": "Unfortunately, that is no surprise.", "zh": "不幸的是，这一点都不令人奇怪。", "index": 6040}
{"en": "The number of literary translations done nowadays in the United States is, according to a United Nations report, equal to that of Greece, a country one-tenth the size.", "zh": "根据联合国的报告，如今美国文学翻译数量和希腊相当，而希腊只是一个只有美国十分之一的小国。", "index": 6041}
{"en": "Imported books are thought to be too “complicated,” which is another way of saying that literature should deal with simple issues in a simple way, obeying the rules of the mass market, with its tricks of packaging, accessibility, advertisement, and comfort.", "zh": "外来书籍被认为太“复杂 ” ， 潜台词就是文学作品应该用简单的方式处理简单话题，顺应畅销市场要求，需要包装广告、易得易读。", "index": 6042}
{"en": "At the core of Magris’ book is the destiny of a group of Italian communists who travel to Yugoslavia after the Second World War to contribute to the construction of a socialist society, only to be caught in the conflict between Stalin and Tito.", "zh": "马格里斯的书的中心是一群意大利共产党员的命运，他们在二战后前往南斯拉夫，帮助建设社会主义社会，但在斯大林和铁托的冲突中身陷囹圄。", "index": 6043}
{"en": "They are imprisoned for their Stalinist allegiance; when they are finally allowed to return to Italy, their old comrades refuse to accept them.", "zh": "他们因效忠斯大林而被捕；而当他们最终获准返回意大利时，又被意大利老同志们拒绝了。", "index": 6044}
{"en": "The book’s plot spans two centuries of revolution.", "zh": "该书的情节跨越了两个世纪的革命。", "index": 6045}
{"en": "Then, suddenly,", "zh": "然后，突然地，", "index": 6046}
{"en": "“the party vanished, overnight, as if all of a sudden a giant sponge had drained the entire sea, Adriatic and Austral, leaving litter and clots of mud, and all the boats stranded.", "zh": "“党垮台了，在一夜之间垮台了，就好像是一块巨大的海面吸干了整个亚得里亚海和南海，留下一地狼藉，所有的船都搁浅了。", "index": 6047}
{"en": "How can you go home again if the sea has been sucked down a vast drain that opened up beneath it, emptying it who knows where, into a void?", "zh": "当海洋被海底的巨大排水口吸干，成为一片没人知道身居何处的滩涂时，你又怎能找到归途？", "index": 6048}
{"en": "The earth is arid and dead, but there won’t be another one, nor another heaven.”", "zh": "地球成了荒芜的不毛之地，但你找不到第二个地球，也找不到第二个天堂。 ”", "index": 6049}
{"en": "The solitude of the individual facing his faith alone, without collective illusions, and forced to do something with himself in the arid, noisy world tells us something important about the exiled world of modernity and its complex and contradictory problems.", "zh": "寂寞的人将孤独面对自己的信仰，没有集体幻觉误导他，他将被迫在荒原上自力更生；而嘈杂的世界告诉了我们一些很重要的东西，关于这个被放逐的现代世界及其所包含的复杂而矛盾的问题的东西。", "index": 6050}
{"en": "Magris’s novel is not only an important literary achievement; it also has a deep connection to the dangers that we face now, particularly the wave of fanaticism, from Mumbai to Oslo, in the name of a holy war against the “other.”", "zh": "马格里斯的小说不仅是文学上的重大成就，它与我们当今所面临的危险有着深层次的联系，特别是从孟买到奥斯陆打着与“异端”圣战名义的狂热主义。", "index": 6051}
{"en": "Are all the extremists searching for a new coherence, for a lost illusion of togetherness and a new hope of resurrection?", "zh": "所有的极端主义都在寻找新的一致，寻找失落的团结幻觉，寻找复兴的新希望吗？", "index": 6052}
{"en": "Can we ever forget September 11, 2001, the start of a bloody century in which the mystical force of hatred and destruction has recovered its strength?", "zh": "我们可能忘记2001年9·11，拉开了神秘的仇恨和毁灭力量死灰复燃的血腥世纪的那一天吗？", "index": 6053}
{"en": "Are Osama Bin Laden’s minions, the bloody Hamas-Hezbollah battalions, or troubled loners like Timothy McVeigh, Theodore Kaczynski, and now Norway’s Anders Behring Breivik, the “heroes” of our contemporary nightmare?", "zh": "本·拉登的门徒、血腥的哈马斯-真主党武装，或麦克维（Timothy McVeigh ） 、 卡钦斯基（Theodore Kaczynski）以及最近的挪威人布雷维克（Anders Behring Breivik）等其他困兽般的人物是我们当代噩梦中的“英雄”人物吗？", "index": 6054}
{"en": "Is this the “rebel” response to an overly globalized, incoherent, and ultimately disturbing reality?", "zh": "这是对过度全球化、不和谐以及令人不堪烦扰的现实的“叛逆”吗？", "index": 6055}
{"en": "If so, their barbarism demands scrutiny – in relation to both historical precedent and to our modernity – rather than merely being labeled “monstrous” (though it certainly is that).", "zh": "如果是的话，他们的野蛮行径就必须仔细审查 — — 既要考察他们的历史渊源，也要研究他们与我们的现代性的关系 — — 而不是给他们贴上“恶魔”的标签（尽管这在所难免）了事。", "index": 6056}
{"en": "The new religious militants, fighting in the name of their particular and peculiar God, seem as fanaticized as the Fascists, Nazis, and Communists of earlier decades.", "zh": "新的宗教激进分子是在各自不同的上帝名义下斗争的，正如几十年前的法西斯主义、纳粹主义和共产主义狂热。", "index": 6057}
{"en": "Magris’s main character is a rebel in more than one embodiment: as Salvatore Cipico, one of the inmates in the communist concentration camp in Yugoslavia; as Jurgen Jurgensen,  ephemeral king of Iceland and a convict forced to build his own jail; and as Jason, the mythic adventurer searching for the volatile truth.", "zh": "马格里斯小说中的主角是一个多重反叛角色：如萨尔瓦多·西皮科（Salvatore Cipico ） ， 南斯拉夫共产主义集中营中的一员；又如约根·约根森（Jurgen Jurgensen ） ， 被迫自掘坟墓的短命冰岛国王；又如杰森（Jason ） ， 寻找捉摸不定的真理的神话冒险家。", "index": 6058}
{"en": "A multilayered and complex chronicle of the devastating tragedies of the twentieth century, Blinding is an insistent, informed, and irreplaceable incursion into the moving landscape of the human soul, its wounds and voids, its vitality and versatility, its deep distortions and its unpredictable dynamics.", "zh": "《炫目》是一部关于20世纪毁灭性悲剧的多层次复杂编年史，入木三分地描绘了不断变化的人类灵魂图景、它的创伤和空虚、它的活力和多能、它的深深的扭曲和它的不可预测的活力，这是一部坚韧的、信息量极丰富的、不可替代的作品。", "index": 6059}
{"en": "It is a fascinating story about the conflict between ideals and reality, or Utopia and humanness; about being faithful to a cause and betraying it; and about sacrifice and solidarity.", "zh": "这是一个梦幻般的故事，它讲述了理想和现实（或者说乌托邦和人性）的冲突，讲述了信仰和背叛的，讲述了牺牲和团结。", "index": 6060}
{"en": "It is also a rich and original literary achievement that challenges today’s consumerist ethic.", "zh": "这也是一部具有丰富内涵的反对当今消费主义思想的原创文学大作。", "index": 6061}
{"en": "By renouncing simplicity, it also repudiates today’s prevailing confusion of information with literature, of facts with creativity, and best-selling products with true works of art.", "zh": "这部小说断然否定简单化，也否定了当今的流行思潮 — — 混淆信息与文学、现实与创造力以及畅销作品与真正艺术品。", "index": 6062}
{"en": "An Agenda for Resolving the US-China Conflict", "zh": "化解美中冲突的议程", "index": 6063}
{"en": "NEW HAVEN – With charges flying back and forth between the United States and China ahead of the eagerly awaited December 1 meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, resolving the conflict has taken on great urgency.", "zh": "纽黑文市 — — 随着定于12月1日即将召开的唐纳德·特朗普总统和习近平主席备受期待的布宜诺斯艾利斯20国集团峰会美中首脑会晤前双方的相互指责满天飞，化解冲突已经成为一个非常紧迫的问题。", "index": 6064}
{"en": "The alternatives pose grave risks for both countries: an ever-escalating trade war, a cold war, or even a hot war.", "zh": "替代选择会给双方都带来严重的风险：不断升级的贸易战、冷战，甚至是一场真正的战争。", "index": 6065}
{"en": "These risks can be avoided, but only if both leaders are willing to engage in principled compromise.", "zh": "上述风险可以避免，但前提是两国领导人都愿意作出有原则的妥协。", "index": 6066}
{"en": "There is no question that a serious conflict has been building for a long time.", "zh": "毫无疑问，长期以来一直存在着严重的冲突。", "index": 6067}
{"en": "Contrary to the US narrative, the problem is not the outsize bilateral trade deficit between the world’s two largest economies.", "zh": "与美国的说法相反，问题并不在于世界前两大经济体之间双边贸易逆差过大。", "index": 6068}
{"en": "That is largely an outgrowth of macroeconomic imbalances that afflict both sides: China saves too much and the US saves too little.", "zh": "而主要在于困扰两国的宏观经济失衡：中国储蓄太多，而美国则储蓄过少。", "index": 6069}
{"en": "These saving disparities give rise to multilateral trade imbalances that cannot be resolved by bilateral efforts.", "zh": "上述储蓄差异导致了双边努力所无法解决的多边贸易失衡。", "index": 6070}
{"en": "The US had merchandise trade deficits with 102 countries in 2017, whereas China had trade surpluses with 169 countries in 2016.", "zh": "2017年美国与世界102个国家出现商品贸易逆差，而2016年中国则与世界169个国家拥有贸易盈余。", "index": 6071}
{"en": "Squeeze one part of the multilateral imbalance for a deficit country or a surplus saver, and it simply gets allocated to other trading partners.", "zh": "如果单纯挤压赤字国或盈余储蓄国多边不平衡的某个部分，那么贸易不平衡分配给其他贸易伙伴将会是唯一的结局。", "index": 6072}
{"en": "For the US, this would lead to higher-cost imports – the functional equivalent of a tax hike on consumers.", "zh": "对美国而言，这将导致抬高进口成本 — — 类似于向消费者征税所起到的作用。", "index": 6073}
{"en": "For China, it would spell increased export penetration into other markets.", "zh": "而对中国而言，这意味着增加对其他市场的出口渗透率。", "index": 6074}
{"en": "Fixation on the blame game of bilateral trade imbalances overlooks the possibility that this is a classic struggle of codependency.", "zh": "将注意力集中在就双边贸易失衡而相互指责忽略了这是一种经典的相互依存斗争的可能性。", "index": 6075}
{"en": "Yes, China has long relied on the US as the major source of external demand for its export-led economy.", "zh": "诚然，中国长期以来一直依赖美国作为其出口导向型经济的主要外部需求来源。", "index": 6076}
{"en": "But the US needs low-cost imports from China to make ends meet for its income-constrained consumers; it also relies on China as the largest foreign buyer of US Treasuries to help fund chronic government budget deficits.", "zh": "但美国也同样需要从中国进口低成本商品，才能维持其收入有限的消费者的收支平衡；美国还依赖中国作为美国国债规模最大的国外买家来协助平衡其长期以来的政府预算赤字。", "index": 6077}
{"en": "And, as America’s third largest and most rapidly growing export market, China has become an increasingly important source of demand for US firms.", "zh": "而作为美国第三大、同时也是增长最快的出口市场，中国已经成为美国企业越来越重要的需求来源地。", "index": 6078}
{"en": "The codependency framework is important because it underscores the need for joint resolution and compromise.", "zh": "相互依赖的框架非常重要，因为它强调了联合解决和相互妥协。", "index": 6079}
{"en": "As in interpersonal relationships, economic codependency can be destabilizing and ultimately destructive.", "zh": "就像在人际关系中，经济依赖可能会破坏稳定，并最终带来毁灭性的后果。", "index": 6080}
{"en": "When one partner changes course, the other, feeling scorned, lashes out in response.", "zh": "当伙伴国之一改弦更张时，另一个感觉受到轻视的伙伴所做出的反应很可能是猛烈攻击。", "index": 6081}
{"en": "China, in this case, is the change agent – shifting its growth model from manufacturing to services, from exports to internal consumption, and from imported technology to indigenous innovation.", "zh": "现阶段，中国扮演了变革因素 — — 将其增长模式从制造业转向服务业、从出口转向内部消费，并从进口技术转向自主创新。", "index": 6082}
{"en": "At the same time, China is also moving from surplus saving to saving absorption, leaving it less to lend to its deficit partner, the US.", "zh": "与此同时，中国还从盈余储蓄转向储蓄吸收，这导致它不再有那么多钱为美国这个赤字伙伴国提供借贷。", "index": 6083}
{"en": "Uncomfortable in its own skin, the US feels threatened by a partner that is changing the rules of this relationship.", "zh": "不安的美国感受到了来自伙伴国的威胁，因为这个伙伴国正在改变设定的关系。", "index": 6084}
{"en": "While Trump has acted on those threats far more aggressively than his predecessors, there can be no mistaking the bipartisan US sentiment now aligned against China.", "zh": "虽然特朗普对上述威胁所采取的行动远比自己的前任更加激进，但不容置疑的是，在中国问题上美国现在的两党情绪正在达成高度的统一。", "index": 6085}
{"en": "According to a September 2018 Axios survey, fully 80% of Republicans – long the party most supportive of free trade – believed that increased tariffs would be good for the US.", "zh": "据2018年9月进行的一次爱可信调查显示，占总数80%的共和党人 — — 共和党长期以来一直是自由贸易的最大支持者 — — 认为提高关税将会对美国有益。", "index": 6086}
{"en": "Leading Republicans, such as Vice President Mike Pence and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, have warned of a new cold war with China, while leading Democrats have come to the view that China has abrogated its role as a responsible global stakeholder.", "zh": "最具影响力的共和党人，例如副总统迈克·彭斯和前财政部长亨利·保尔森，已经警告可能与中国爆发新冷战，而最具影响力的民主党人也一致认为中国已经放弃了自身作为全球利益相关方的责任。", "index": 6087}
{"en": "At a time of ever-escalating threats and counter-threats, the imperative of compromise cannot be understated.", "zh": "在这样一个不断升级的威胁和反威胁时代，决不能忽视妥协的必要性。", "index": 6088}
{"en": "The upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi provides an opportunity to reframe the conflict as a strategic challenge for the world’s two leading economies.", "zh": "特朗普和习近平即将举行的会晤提供了重新定义美中冲突，并使之成为世界两大主要经济体所面临的战略挑战的机会。", "index": 6089}
{"en": "Four possible avenues to consider:", "zh": "我们必须考虑四种可能的途径。", "index": 6090}
{"en": "Market access: After ten years of tortuous negotiations, the time for a breakthrough on a US-China bilateral investment treaty (BIT) is at hand.", "zh": "市场准入：经过长达十年的曲折谈判，美中双边投资协议（BIT）现在正面临着突破的时机。", "index": 6091}
{"en": "Both sides would need to offer concessions.", "zh": "双方均需要做出让步。", "index": 6092}
{"en": "A BIT would lift ownership caps on foreign direct investment by multinational corporations in both countries, eliminating the contentious joint-venture structure in China that the US continues to insist – incorrectly, in my view – has become a mechanism for forced technology transfer.", "zh": "美中双边投资协议将提升两国跨国企业实施外国直接投资的所有权上限，取消中国充满争议的合资机制，美国一直坚持这种合资安排已经成为一种强制技术转让的机制，而在我看来美国这种坚持并无道理。", "index": 6093}
{"en": "A BIT would also enable an expansion of Chinese ownership of US-domiciled assets – posing a challenge to the anti-China thrust of recent legislation that broadens the oversight powers of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.", "zh": "双边投资协议还将扩大中国对美国注册资产的所有权 — — 从而挑战不久前通过的扩大美国外国投资委员会监管权的推动反华的相关法律。", "index": 6094}
{"en": "Saving: Both countries need to commit to responsible macroeconomic adjustments.", "zh": "储蓄：两国均需要承诺作出负责任的宏观经济调整。", "index": 6095}
{"en": "The US needs to save more, reversing the reckless budget-busting trajectory reinforced by last year’s ill-timed, outsize tax cuts.", "zh": "美国需要加强储蓄，彻底逆转去年不合时宜的大规模减税所带来的不计后果的破坏预算的轨迹。", "index": 6096}
{"en": "Rebuilding saving, rather than tariffs, is the most effective strategy to reduce trade deficits with China or any other trading partner.", "zh": "重建储蓄而非关税是减少与中国或其他任何贸易伙伴贸易赤字的最为有效的策略。", "index": 6097}
{"en": "At the same time, China needs to save less, putting its vast pool of capital to work funding the country’s social safety net, which is essential for consumer-led economic rebalancing.", "zh": "与此同时，中国需要减少储蓄，利用所积累的海量资金来建设该国的社会安全网，这与由消费者主导的经济再平衡之间有着至关重要的联系。", "index": 6098}
{"en": "Cyber security: The digital realm is the battleground of the Information Age, and the September 2015 accord between President Barack Obama and Xi clearly did not go far enough in defusing persistent tensions over online espionage, hacking, and disruption.", "zh": "网络安全：数字领域是信息时代的主战场，而美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马和习近平于2015年9月所达成的协议显然没有有效地缓解网络间谍、黑客攻击和破坏的持续不断的紧张局势。", "index": 6099}
{"en": "The two countries should take the lead in forging a global cyber accord, complete with pooled metrics of cyber incursions, attack-reduction targets and a robust dispute-resolution mechanism.", "zh": "两国应率先制定全球网络协议，上述协议应包括网络入侵、缓解攻击目标和强有力的争端解决机制等汇总指标来加以综合考虑。", "index": 6100}
{"en": "Dialogue: It is terrific that the two presidents are meeting again after their earlier tête-à-têtes in Beijing and at Mar-a-Lago.", "zh": "对话：两位总统在早前北京和海湖庄园举行的两次会晤后再次举行会晤无疑是件幸事。", "index": 6101}
{"en": "Those gatherings follow more formal engagements such as the Strategic and Economic Dialogue.", "zh": "那些会晤遵循更为正式的安排，如战略和经济对话。", "index": 6102}
{"en": "But all of these efforts have been episodic events that are long on glitz and short on substance.", "zh": "但所有这些努力其实都逃脱不了偶发的性质，虽然光彩夺目，但却缺少实质。", "index": 6103}
{"en": "A permanent secretariat that would engage in full-time collaborative efforts on key policy issues (including data sharing, joint research, and public-private consultation) would be far more productive.", "zh": "设立就关键政策问题（包括数据共享、联合研究和公私协商）进行全天候合作的常设秘书处将会是更富于成效的举措。", "index": 6104}
{"en": "In light of contentious recent developments between the US and China, it is hard to be optimistic that a meaningful breakthrough is at hand.", "zh": "鉴于美中之间近期充满争议的事态发展，人们很难对双方取得有意义的突破保持乐观的态度。", "index": 6105}
{"en": "An agenda of substance should be used as a checklist against any accord that may be struck by Trump and Xi.", "zh": "应当对照一份实质性的内容清单来检验特朗普和习近平可能达成的任何协议。", "index": 6106}
{"en": "The world is watching.", "zh": "全世界都在拭目以待。", "index": 6107}
{"en": "The Age of Hyper-Uncertainty", "zh": "超级不确定性时代", "index": 6108}
{"en": "BERLIN – The year 2017 will mark the 40th anniversary of the publication of John Kenneth Galbraith’s The Age of Uncertainty.", "zh": "柏林—2017年是约翰·肯尼斯·加尔布雷斯（John Kenneth Galbraith）的《不确定性的时代 》 （ The Age of Uncertainty）出版四十周年。", "index": 6109}
{"en": "Forty years is a long time, but it is worth looking back and reminding ourselves of how much Galbraith and his readers had to be uncertain about.", "zh": "四十年很长，但值得回首并提醒我们自己加尔布雷斯和他的读者有多大的不确定。", "index": 6110}
{"en": "In 1977, as Galbraith was writing, the world was still reeling from the effects of the first OPEC oil-price shock and wondering whether another one was in the pipeline (as it were).", "zh": "1977年，在加尔布雷斯写作这本书的同时，世界仍在第一次欧佩克石油冲击的影响中挣扎，也不知道会不会有第二次冲击（后来发生了 ） 。", "index": 6111}
{"en": "The United States was confronting slowing growth and accelerating inflation, or stagflation, a novel problem that raised questions about policymakers’ competence and the adequacy of their economic models.", "zh": "美国正面临增长减速、通胀加速，亦即滞涨，这个突出的问题令人们开始质疑决策者的胜任能力以及他们的经济模型的适当性。", "index": 6112}
{"en": "Meanwhile, efforts to rebuild the Bretton Woods international monetary system had collapsed, casting a shadow over prospects for international trade and global economic growth.", "zh": "与此同时，重建布雷顿森林国际货币体系的努力以失败告终，给国际贸易和全球经济增长前景蒙上一层阴影。", "index": 6113}
{"en": "For all these reasons, the golden age of stability and predictability that was the third quarter of the twentieth century seemed to have abruptly drawn to a close, to be succeeded by a period of greatly heightened uncertainty.", "zh": "出于所有这些原因，贯穿二十世纪第三个四分之一的稳定和可预测性的全球时代似乎戛然而止，随之而来的是一个不确定性突出的时期。", "index": 6114}
{"en": "That’s how things looked in 1977, anyway.", "zh": "无论如何，1977年的情况就是这样。", "index": 6115}
{"en": "Viewed from the perspective of 2017, however, the uncertainty of 1977 seems almost enviable.", "zh": "但是，从2017年的视角看，1977年的不确定性简直令人嫉妒。", "index": 6116}
{"en": "In 1977, there was no President Donald Trump.", "zh": "1977年，没有唐纳德·特朗普总统。", "index": 6117}
{"en": "Jimmy Carter may not go down in history as one of the best US presidents, but he did not threaten actions that placed the entire global system at risk.", "zh": "吉米·卡特也许不是美国历史上最好的总统个，但他没有威胁要采取让整个全球体系陷入危险的行动。", "index": 6118}
{"en": "He did not turn his back on America’s international commitments such as NATO and the World Trade Organization.", "zh": "他没有背弃北约和世界贸易组织等美国的国际责任。", "index": 6119}
{"en": "Nor did Carter go to war with the Federal Reserve or pack its board with sympathetic appointees willing to sacrifice sound money to his reelection prospects.", "zh": "卡特也没有向美联储宣战，或用同情他、愿意牺牲可靠货币助他连任的人选填充美联储理事会。", "index": 6120}
{"en": "On the contrary, he appointed Paul Volcker, a towering pillar of monetary stability, as chairman of the Board of Governors.", "zh": "相反，他认命了货币稳定的中流砥柱保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）为美联储理事会主席。", "index": 6121}
{"en": "And although Carter did not succeed in balancing the federal budget, he didn’t blow it up, either.", "zh": "而尽管卡特没能成功地平衡联邦预算，但他也没有弄得一团糟。", "index": 6122}
{"en": "Whether Trump slaps a tariff on Chinese goods, repudiates the North American Free Trade Agreement, packs the Federal Reserve Board, or undermines fiscal sustainability remains to be seen.", "zh": "特朗普是否会对中国商品课以关税、废除北美自由贸易协定、用自己人填充美联储理事会，或者损害财政可持续性仍有待观察。", "index": 6123}
{"en": "Conceivable outcomes range from mildly reassuring to utterly catastrophic.", "zh": "差可令人放心到十足的灾难都有可能。", "index": 6124}
{"en": "Who knows what will happen?", "zh": "谁知道会发生什么？", "index": 6125}
{"en": "By today’s standards, Carter was the embodiment of predictability.", "zh": "从今天的标准看，卡特简直是可预测性的化身。", "index": 6126}
{"en": "In 1977, moreover, the prospects for European integration were rosy.", "zh": "此外，1977年，欧洲一体化前景光明。", "index": 6127}
{"en": "Denmark, Ireland, and, most notably, the United Kingdom had recently joined a rapidly growing European Community.", "zh": "丹麦、爱尔兰以及最受瞩目的英国刚刚加入茁壮成长中的欧洲共同体。", "index": 6128}
{"en": "The EC was attracting members, not losing them.", "zh": "欧共体吸引着新成员，而不是失去它们。", "index": 6129}
{"en": "It was a club that countries sought to join precisely in order to achieve faster economic growth.", "zh": "它是一个俱乐部，国家之所以加入其中，正是为了实现更快的经济增长。", "index": 6130}
{"en": "Moreover, to buttress its common market, the EC had just established a regional monetary system, the suggestively named “snake in the tunnel.”", "zh": "此外，为了支持共同市场，欧共体刚刚成立了区域货币体系，并暗示性地命名为“隧道蛇 ” 。", "index": 6131}
{"en": "While this was far from a perfect monetary system, it had one very positive attribute: countries could leave in hard economic times, and rejoin if and when the outlook brightened.", "zh": "尽管这远非完美的货币体系，但有一个非常积极的特性：各国可以在经济艰难时期离开，并在前景恢复光明后重新加入。", "index": 6132}
{"en": "In 2017, in contrast, negotiations over Brexit will continue to cast a dark cloud of uncertainty over the European Union.", "zh": "相反，2017年，围绕英国退欧的谈判将继续成为飘荡在欧盟上空的一朵乌云。", "index": 6133}
{"en": "How those negotiations will proceed and how long they will take are anyone’s guess.", "zh": "这些谈判如何进行、将消耗多长时间，我们都只能猜测。", "index": 6134}
{"en": "Moreover, the main questions raised by Britain’s decision to leave – whether other countries will follow and, indeed, whether the EU itself has a future – remain far from resolved.", "zh": "此外，英国退出欧盟的决定所带来的主要问题 — — 其他国家是否会效仿，以及，事实上欧盟自身还有没有未来 — — 也远未解决。", "index": 6135}
{"en": "Meanwhile Europe’s monetary house remains half built.", "zh": "与此同时，欧洲货币大厦仍然处于烂尾状态。", "index": 6136}
{"en": "The eurozone is neither appealing enough to attract additional members nor flexible enough to grant troubled incumbents a temporary holiday, in the manner of the currency snake. The euro will likely survive the year, inertia being what it is.", "zh": "欧元区既不足以吸引更多的成员，也不够灵活可以给陷入麻烦的成员暂时离开喘息的机会（即蛇形浮动 ） 。", "index": 6137}
{"en": "In 1977, uncertainties emanating from emerging markets were not on commentators’ radar screens.", "zh": "1977年，源自新兴市场的不确定性根本提不起评论家的兴趣。", "index": 6138}
{"en": "Developing countries in Latin America and East Asia were growing, although they depended increasingly on a drip feed of foreign loans from money-center banks.", "zh": "拉丁美洲和东亚的发展中国家正在成长，尽��越来越依赖货币中心银行的外币贷款续命。", "index": 6139}
{"en": "China, still largely cut off from the world, did not figure in this discussion.", "zh": "中国仍然基本与世隔绝，不再人们的讨论范围中。", "index": 6140}
{"en": "And even if something went wrong in the Third World, developing countries were simply too small to drag down the global economy.", "zh": "而即便第三世界出现某些状况，发展中国家规模实在太小，不足以拖累全球经济。", "index": 6141}
{"en": "The situation today couldn’t be more different.", "zh": "今天的情况大相径庭。", "index": 6142}
{"en": "What happens in China, Brazil, or Turkey doesn’t stay in China, Brazil, or Turkey.", "zh": "中国、巴西或土耳其的情况所影响到的绝不仅限于中国、巴西或土耳其。", "index": 6143}
{"en": "On the contrary, developments in these countries have first-order implications for the world economy, given how emerging markets have accounted for the majority of global growth in recent years.", "zh": "相反，这些国家的形势将给世界经济带来最为重大的影响，因为近几年来新兴市场一贯贡献着全球增长的大部分。", "index": 6144}
{"en": "China has an unmanageable corporate-debt problem and a government whose commitment to restructuring the economy is uncertain.", "zh": "中国存在一个难以管理的公司债务问题，政府关于调整经济结构的承诺也处于不确定中。", "index": 6145}
{"en": "Turkey has a massive current-account deficit, an erratic president, and an unstable geopolitical neighborhood.", "zh": "土耳其存在巨大的经常账户赤字，有一位反复无常的总统，还有一个不稳定的地缘政治周边。", "index": 6146}
{"en": "And if political scandals were export goods, Brazil would have a clear comparative advantage.", "zh": "而如果政治丑闻可以出口的话，巴西将拥有明显的比较优势。", "index": 6147}
{"en": "Although The Age of Uncertainty was about much more than the year 1977, it captured the tenor of the times.", "zh": "尽管《不确定性的时代》跟多地是关于1977年的著作，但它抓住了时代的主旨。", "index": 6148}
{"en": "But if Galbraith were writing the same book in 2017, he probably would call the 1970s The Age of Assurance.", "zh": "但如果加尔布雷斯在2017年写作这本书，他可能会将20世纪70年代称为《确定的时代 》 。", "index": 6149}
{"en": "A German Europe?", "zh": "德国的欧洲？", "index": 6150}
{"en": "LISBON/RIGA – Is the Europe that is emerging from the euro crisis a German one?", "zh": "里斯本/里加 — — 欧元危机中的欧洲成了德国的欧洲？", "index": 6151}
{"en": "During the euro crisis, power in the European Union seems to have shifted towards national capitals in general, and towards one national capital in particular: Berlin.", "zh": "欧元危机期间，欧洲联盟的力量似乎已经向主要国家首都转移，尤其是柏林。", "index": 6152}
{"en": "But, with Germany introverted, France downgraded, and Britain semi-detached, the big story in European foreign policy is that the time has come for the little guy who thinks big.", "zh": "但是，德国转内，法国降级，英国半独立，在欧洲外交政策的大故事Ａ是，让小家伙有大作用的时候到了。", "index": 6153}
{"en": "In this Europe, the important moves are now sometimes made in Stockholm or Warsaw, not only in Berlin, Paris, or London.", "zh": "在欧洲，这一重要举措不仅出现在柏林、巴黎或伦敦，现在也有时出现在斯德哥尔摩或华沙。", "index": 6154}
{"en": "And, with major foreign-policy issues on Europe’s doorstep – whether in Egypt, Belarus, or now Syria – useful European initiatives are to be welcomed, regardless of where they originate.", "zh": "欧洲门槛上的重大外交政策问题 - 无论是在埃及，白俄罗斯，或现在的叙利亚 – 实用的欧洲倡议是受欢迎的，无论它们源于何方。", "index": 6155}
{"en": "Germany, in foreign policy as well as in economics, can exert decisive leadership in the EU – when it wants to.", "zh": "德国无论在外交政策还是在经济上，都可以在欧盟中发挥决定性的领导地位。", "index": 6156}
{"en": "For example, together with Poland, it led the EU’s attempt to develop a coordinated approach to Russia, and it flexed its muscles on Serbia.", "zh": "例如，它与波兰一起，带领欧盟试图建立与俄罗斯的协调关系，并延伸向塞尔维亚。", "index": 6157}
{"en": "But, on other issues – for example, Libya – Germany did not so much lead as use its newfound room for maneuver to follow its own preferences in the face of other EU members.", "zh": "但是，在其他问题上，例如利比亚，德国没有为了自身利益在其他欧盟成员面前太多地使用回旋的新余地。", "index": 6158}
{"en": "So the answer today to Henry Kissinger’s famous question about whom he should call when he wants to speak to Europe, is not necessarily “the German chancellor.”", "zh": "所以，今天对于基辛格著名问题有关当他想与欧洲对话时该找谁的答案不必再是德国总理了。", "index": 6159}
{"en": "While Berlin is increasingly imposing its economic preferences on others in the eurozone, it is not prepared to use military force as a foreign-policy tool, as it demonstrated in the case of Libya.", "zh": "虽然柏林在欧元区不断加强其经济上对别国的影响，但它不准备使用武力作为外交政策工具，正如它在利比亚所做的那样。", "index": 6160}
{"en": "Moreover, Germany, it seems, is becoming a “geo-economic power” driven by the needs of its export sector.", "zh": "此外，德国似乎因其出口部门的需求驱动而成为一个“地缘经济力量 ” 。", "index": 6161}
{"en": "By using economic means to pursue its foreign-policy ends, Germany is gradually turning its back on its European partners.", "zh": "用其经济手段来实现外交政策目的，德国正逐渐背向其欧洲伙伴。", "index": 6162}
{"en": "Meanwhile, as France experiences a loss of power relative to Germany on economic issues, it continues to play a decisive role in foreign policy.", "zh": "与此同时，法国经历了相对德国来说在经济问题上权力的损失，它仍在外交政策上发挥决定性的作用。", "index": 6163}
{"en": "France led the Libya operation, and is doing much the same with attempts to impose stronger sanctions against Iran and provide support for the United Nations in Côte d’Ivoire.", "zh": "法国引导利比亚运作，并试图对伊朗实施更严厉的制裁，正如其提供对联合国在科特迪瓦的支持一样。", "index": 6164}
{"en": "But France’s unilateral approach often antagonizes its European partners.", "zh": "但法国的单边主义做法往往使其与欧洲伙伴敌对。", "index": 6165}
{"en": "For example, French President Nicolas Sarkozy preempted a common European position on the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN in September.", "zh": "例如，9月份，法国总统萨尔科齐在联合国巴勒斯坦建国投票中抢占了欧洲共同立场。", "index": 6166}
{"en": "In other words, even when France leads, it does not always do so in a constructive way.", "zh": "换句话说，即使由法国来领导，它也并不总是用这样建设性的方式.", "index": 6167}
{"en": "Apart from the decisive role that it played in Libya alongside France, Britain is becoming increasingly marginal in European foreign policymaking.", "zh": "除了与法国一起在利比亚发挥了决定性的作用，英国在欧洲外交决策中变得日益边缘化。", "index": 6168}
{"en": "Even before it vetoed a plan by eurozone countries to create a “fiscal union” at the European summit in December 2011, it was playing less of a leadership role than it traditionally has on key European foreign-policy issues.", "zh": "尽管之前，在2011年12月的欧盟首脑会议上它否决了一项由欧元区国家提出的创建“财政联盟”计划，它在欧洲关键外交政策上的影响与其以前的传统领导地位相比正在逐渐减弱。", "index": 6169}
{"en": "Britain has continued to support EU enlargement, closer links with Turkey, and development in Africa, but it has not launched any creative initiatives to bring other member states along or change the terms of the EU debate.", "zh": "英国支持欧盟东扩，发展与土耳其更密切的联系及对非洲的开发，但还没有推出任何创造性的举措，使其他成员国支持或改变欧盟争论的条款。", "index": 6170}
{"en": "On other issues, such as engaging “strategic partners” – China and Russia in particular – the United Kingdom is often a follower as well.", "zh": "在其他问题上，如搞“战略伙伴 ” — —特别是对中国和俄罗斯 — — 英国往往也是支持者。", "index": 6171}
{"en": "As the “big three” increasingly pursue their own narrowly defined national interests, however, other EU member states are emerging as leaders in key foreign-policy fields.", "zh": "“三巨头”越来越追求自己狭隘的国家利益，而其他欧盟成员国正在成为重要外交政策领域的领导者。", "index": 6172}
{"en": "For example, Sweden – the 14th largest member state in terms of population, and eighth in terms of GDP – under the leadership of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt punches considerably above its weight.", "zh": "例如，瑞典 — — 成员国中人口排列第14位，GDP第8位 — — 在首相赖因费尔特和外交大臣卡尔·比尔特的领导下，其影响力远远大于其排位。", "index": 6173}
{"en": "Last year, it increased annual aid to North Africa by SEK100 million (€11.1 million), proposed an EU mission to Tunisia just a week after the revolution to support democratic aspirations there, and was an early and strong backer of UN resolutions in support of the uprising in Libya.", "zh": "去年，它对北非的年度支援增加了100万克朗（11.1百万欧元 ） ， 突尼斯革命一周后，它提出派一个欧盟代表团以支持那里的民主意愿，也是联合国有关支持利比亚起义决议的早期和强大的支持者。", "index": 6174}
{"en": "Poland, too, is emerging as a foreign-policy leader.", "zh": "波兰，也逐渐成为外交政策的领导者。", "index": 6175}
{"en": "Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski have particularly taken the initiative on the EU’s strategy towards Russia, where Poland has largely overcome its differences with Germany and is now at the forefront of efforts to develop a genuinely comprehensive approach.", "zh": "总理图斯克和外长西科斯基尤其在欧盟对俄罗斯的战略上采取主动，波兰已经在很大程度上克服了与德国的分歧，现在正努力发展真诚广泛的途径。", "index": 6176}
{"en": "Poland has also led on European defense (though it declined to take part in the military intervention in Libya).", "zh": "波兰也领导了欧洲防务（尽管它拒绝参加在利比亚的军事干预 ） 。", "index": 6177}
{"en": "This reflects the strength of the Polish economy, which is expected to grow by more than 3% in 2012 – faster than almost anywhere else in the EU.", "zh": "这反映了波兰经济的实力���预计在2012年增幅将超过3 ％ - 比欧盟别的大部分国家更快。", "index": 6178}
{"en": "Germany might be getting all of the attention in this time of crisis, but the last year has been a reminder that Europe is most effective and influential when the small countries get involved and join forces with – and even lead – the big ones.", "zh": "德国可能在危机时刻得到更多的注意，但去年的情况证实，当小国同大国一起参与、甚至是领导时，欧盟会产生最大的效力和影响力。", "index": 6179}
{"en": "For example, on Iran (with exceptions like Greece), Europeans have united around a clear policy and collective positions, such as an oil embargo.", "zh": "例如，对伊朗（希腊除外 ） ， 欧洲各国都共有一个明确的政策和一致的立场，如石油禁运。", "index": 6180}
{"en": "So, Poland and Sweden:  Europe needs your leadership.", "zh": "因此，波兰和瑞典：欧洲需要你们的领导。", "index": 6181}
{"en": "But that might not be enough in an EU with more than 500 million citizens.", "zh": "但在一个拥有500多万公民的欧盟来说这是远远不够的。", "index": 6182}
{"en": "Other EU states need to follow their example in order to make European foreign policy truly effective and influential.", "zh": "欧盟其他成员国需要以他们为榜样，使欧洲的外交政策有真正的效力和有影响力。", "index": 6183}
{"en": "A German Glimmer in a Global Boom", "zh": "全球经济繁荣中的德国曙光", "index": 6184}
{"en": "In 2004, the world economy grew at a rate of 5.1%, the fastest pace in the last 28 years.", "zh": "2004年，世界经济增长5.1 % ， 为过去28年中最快。 Ifo的世界经济景气指标来源于对90个国家的1200名专家进行季度调查。", "index": 6185}
{"en": "While Ifo`s World Economic Climate indicator, generated from quarterly surveys of 1,200 experts in 90 countries, worsened slightly during the first three quarters of 2005, it rose again in the last quarter, indicating a continuation of the boom.", "zh": "尽管这一指标在2005年的头三个季度稍微有所恶化，但是在最后一个季度中再次上升。 这表明，繁荣在延续。", "index": 6186}
{"en": "In 2005, growth is estimated to have been about 4.3%, and a similar rate can be expected in 2006, marking a period of sustained rapid global growth unseen since the 1970’s.", "zh": "2005年，预计增长大约4.3 % ， 预计2006年也会有类似的增长率。 这将是自上世纪七十年代以来所没有出现的全球经济快速持续增长的时期。", "index": 6187}
{"en": "But the boom is not uniform.", "zh": "但是，这一繁荣并不平衡。", "index": 6188}
{"en": "In the United States, the number of experts giving a favorable assessment of the current situation declined; indeed, a majority believes that the economic situation will worsen during the next six months.", "zh": "在美国，对现状作出有利评估的专家人数有所下降。 实际上，大多数人认为经济形势在以后6个月中将有所恶化。", "index": 6189}
{"en": "However, in the Asian countries, including China, the optimism is unbroken.", "zh": "但是，包括中国在内的亚洲国家却都很乐观。", "index": 6190}
{"en": "The same is true for Eastern Europe, the ex-Soviet states, and Latin America.", "zh": "东欧、前苏联国家以及拉丁美洲国家也是如此。", "index": 6191}
{"en": "The big surprise is Europe, which, unlike in 2004 and the first half of 2005, now seems to be catching up with the rest of the world.", "zh": "令人惊讶的是欧洲。 与2004年很2005年上半年不同的是，欧洲看起来正在赶上世界其他地方。", "index": 6192}
{"en": "Whereas growth was a miserable 1.5% in 2005 in the 15 “old” members of the European Union, Ifo expects EU-15 growth to accelerate to 2.1% in 2006.", "zh": "2005年15个“老”欧盟成员的增长率尽管只有可怜的1.5 % ， Ifo预计，欧盟15国在2006年的增长将会加快到2.1 % 。", "index": 6193}
{"en": "To be sure, economic performance will vary widely among EU countries.", "zh": "的确，欧盟成员国的经济表现差异巨大。", "index": 6194}
{"en": "While Italy will be the laggard, with only 1.1% growth, the Irish rocket will not lose its force, pushing real GDP up by about 4.8%.", "zh": "意大利居于人后，只有1.1 % ， 爱尔兰火箭般的发展速度不会降低，其实际GDP将增长大约4.8 % 。 总体而言，与欧盟较小的国家相比，欧盟大国仍然差强人意。", "index": 6195}
{"en": "In general, the big EU countries are still performing badly, in contrast to the smaller members – hardly surprising, given that the EU is basically an institution to help the smaller countries overcome the drawback of their size by extending the agglomeration advantages that formerly were reserved to the bigger countries.", "zh": "这并不奇怪，因为欧盟机构基本上是通过给予小国以大规模经济优势而帮助它们克服狭小的弱点。 这些大规模经济优势以往都是被大国所占据。", "index": 6196}
{"en": "But even Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is experiencing an upswing.", "zh": "但是，即使是欧盟最大的经济体德国也在上升。", "index": 6197}
{"en": "The Ifo climate indicator for Germany, based on monthly surveys of 7,000 firms, jumped upwards in the second half of 2005, reaching its highest value since the boom year 2000, with businesses’ assessment of the current situation and expectations improving.", "zh": "根据对7000家公司所做的月度调查，Ifo的德国经济景气指标在2005年下半年跃升，达到2000年繁荣之年以来最高值，工商界对当前形势和预期的评估也在改善。", "index": 6198}
{"en": "After five years of stagnation, the economy is finally on the move.", "zh": "经过5年的滞胀，德国经济终于开始复苏。", "index": 6199}
{"en": "The driving force is external demand, as Germany, the world’s second-largest exporter, profits from the global boom.", "zh": "外在需求是经济复苏的驱动力量。 德国作为全球第二大出口国从全球繁荣中受益巨大。", "index": 6200}
{"en": "Exports increased by 6.2% in 2005 and are expected to increase by 7.4% in 2006.", "zh": "2005年出口增长6.2 % ， 预计2006年可达7.4 % 。", "index": 6201}
{"en": "However, as we saw in 2004 and 2005, exports are not enough to create substantial growth if domestic demand does not follow.", "zh": "但是，正如我们在2004年和2005年所看到的那样，如果国内需求跟不上的话，出口并不足以创造可持续的增长。", "index": 6202}
{"en": "The good news for Germany is that investment demand is now growing, too.", "zh": "德国的好消息是投资需求也在增长。", "index": 6203}
{"en": "While the second half of 2005 was already quite good, Ifo expects investment in equipment to grow by a healthy 6% in 2006.", "zh": "2005年下半年已经很好，Ifo预计，设备投资在2006年会健康地增长6 % 。", "index": 6204}
{"en": "After many years of contraction, investment in construction also will rise slightly.", "zh": "经历数年的萎缩，建筑投资也将略有增长。", "index": 6205}
{"en": "Total investment growth is expected to reach 2.9% – weak by past standards, but nonetheless a promising salve for the wounded German mood.", "zh": "整体投资增长预计达到2.9 % ， 这按照过去的标准而言是软弱的，但是对于受伤的德国情绪而言却是大有希望的宽慰。", "index": 6206}
{"en": "Moreover, any investment growth is vital for Germany, which, according to the latest OECD statistics, currently suffers from the world’s lowest share of net investment in national income.", "zh": "而且，对于德国而言，任何投资增长都是至关重要的。 根据经合组织最新统计数据，德国的净投资在全国收入中所占的份额目前是全球最低的，因此深受其害。", "index": 6207}
{"en": "Even if Germany remains the world’s laggard, rising investment demand as such will contribute to GDP growth, which Ifo estimates at 1.7% in 2006.", "zh": "即使德国仍然滞后于全球经济，如此增长的投资需求将会为GDP增长作出贡献。 Ifo估计，德国2006年的GDP增长率为1.7 % 。", "index": 6208}
{"en": "That number looks small compared to most other countries.", "zh": "与其他大多数国家相比，这一数字相形见绌。", "index": 6209}
{"en": "In fact, all EU countries except Italy and the Netherlands will grow faster.", "zh": "实际上，除了意大利和荷兰以外的所有欧盟国家都将提速。", "index": 6210}
{"en": "But everything is relative: Germany’s trend growth rate is just 1.1%, and the country has been the slowest growing EU country since 1995.", "zh": "但是，所有的事情都是相对的：德国的趋势增长率仅为1.1 % ， 而且自1995年以来一直是欧盟国家中增长最慢的国家。", "index": 6211}
{"en": "Measured against a disappointing past, even Germany is currently experiencing an economic boom.", "zh": "与令人失望的过去相比，即使是德国目前也在经历经济繁荣。", "index": 6212}
{"en": "Indeed, even German unemployment, which has been rising in cycles since 1970, will decline slightly in 2006, from 4.8 to 4.7 million.", "zh": "德国的失业人数自1970年以来一直循环上升，即使如此，失业人数也会在2006年略微下降，从480万下降到470万。", "index": 6213}
{"en": "The good economic data will reinforce initial favorable impressions of Angela Merkel’s new government, which got off to an excellent start at the EU Summit, where Merkel helped to broker a compromise between Britain and France on the Union’s 2007-2013 budget (by adding another €2 billion to Germany’s annual contribution).", "zh": "良好的经济数据将巩固对莫科尔新政府的不错的印象。 莫克尔政府由于在欧盟首脑会议上帮助英国和法国就欧盟2007年到2013年预算达成妥协（将德国的年度分摊又增加20亿欧元）而崭露头角。", "index": 6214}
{"en": "In fact, the government may even have contributed a bit to the good economic data by announcing a serious effort to consolidate Germany’s own public finances – a prerequisite for investor confidence.", "zh": "实际上，莫克尔政府通过宣布有力措施巩固德国自身的公共财政而甚至可能为良好的经济数据作出了贡献。 巩固自身的公共财政对于投资者信心而言是前提条件。", "index": 6215}
{"en": "According to the government, substantial tax increases will bring the fiscal deficit below the 3%-of-GDP limit set by the Stability and Growth Pact – a target missed for five consecutive years – by 2007.", "zh": "根据政府的数据，大幅度增税将在2007年把财政赤字降低到欧洲稳定和增长公约规定的GDP的3%以下的限度。 过去5年来德国一直超过了这一限度。", "index": 6216}
{"en": "The real test for the German government is the labor market.", "zh": "德国政府真正的考验是劳动力市场。", "index": 6217}
{"en": "Most observers now agree that Germany needs something like the American earned-income tax credit.", "zh": "大多数观察家现在都认为，德国需要类似美国那样的所得税抵扣。", "index": 6218}
{"en": "In Germany, it’s called “activating social aid” or “combi wages,” but the principle is the same: the state should reduce the money it pays for doing nothing and pay more for participating in the work force.", "zh": "在德国，这被称之为“激活社会援助”或者“综合工资 ” 。 但是原则是一样的，那就是，国家应当对好吃懒做者少给钱，而对参加工作的人应该多给钱。", "index": 6219}
{"en": "That would widen the wage distribution, create jobs, and maintain the living standard of the poor.", "zh": "这将会扩大工资分配，创造就业机会，并且维持穷人的生活水准。", "index": 6220}
{"en": "Merkel announced in her inaugural speech in the Bundestag that her government will introduce such a system in 2006.", "zh": "莫克尔在德国议会所作的就职演说中宣布，她的政府将将在2006年实施这一制度。", "index": 6221}
{"en": "If this is more than lip service, and if she really carries out a serious reform of the German welfare state’s incentive structure, the result could be higher employment and structural economic growth.", "zh": "如果付诸行动，而且她果真认真地改革德国福利国家的激励结构，结果将有可能会是更高的就业率和结构性经济增长。", "index": 6222}
{"en": "In the long term, that would be more promising for the EU – and for the global economy – than the demand-driven performance that Germany is currently enjoying.", "zh": "从长远来看，这对欧盟和全球经济而言要比德国目前所处的由需求驱动的经济表现更加有前途。", "index": 6223}
{"en": "Is Pensioner Populism Here to Stay?", "zh": "年长者民粹主义会成为常态吗？", "index": 6224}
{"en": "MILAN – The right-wing populism that has emerged in many Western democracies in recent years could turn out to be much more than a blip on the political landscape.", "zh": "发自米兰 — — 近年来在许多西方民主国家中崛起的右翼民粹主义或许不仅仅是政治版图中的昙花一现。", "index": 6225}
{"en": "Beyond the Great Recession and the migration crisis, both of which created fertile ground for populist parties, the aging of the West’s population will continue to alter political power dynamics in populists’ favor.", "zh": "除了为民粹主义政党创造了肥沃土壤的大衰退和移民危机之外，西方的老龄化也将继续引导政治权力态势向着对民粹主义者有利的方向转变。", "index": 6226}
{"en": "It turns out that older voters are rather sympathetic to nationalist movements.", "zh": "事实证明年长的选民对民族主义运动相当同情。", "index": 6227}
{"en": "Older Britons voted disproportionately in favor of leaving the European Union, and older Americans delivered the US presidency to Donald Trump.", "zh": "投票支持脱欧的年长英国人要高于其所占人口比例，而年长的美国人则将总统大权交到了特朗普手里。", "index": 6228}
{"en": "Neither the Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland nor Fidesz in Hungary would be in power without the enthusiastic support of the elderly.", "zh": "如果没有老年人的热情支持，波兰的法律和正义党以及匈牙利的青年民主联盟都不会上台。", "index": 6229}
{"en": "And in Italy, the League has succeeded in large part by exploiting the discontent of Northern Italy’s seniors.", "zh": "在意大利，联盟党在很大程度上成功利用了意大利北部老年群体的不满情绪。", "index": 6230}
{"en": "Among today’s populists, only Marine Le Pen of France’s National Rally (formerly the National Front) – and possibly Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil – relies on younger voters.", "zh": "在当下的民粹主义者中，只有法国国民联盟（前身为国民阵线）的马琳·勒庞 — — 或许还有巴西的贾伊尔·波尔索纳罗（Jair Bolsonaro ） — —会依赖年轻选民。", "index": 6231}
{"en": "Next spring, this age-driven voting pattern could drive the outcome of the European Parliament election.", "zh": "到了明年春天，这种年龄驱动型投票模式可能会影响到欧洲议会的选举结果。", "index": 6232}
{"en": "According to recent studies, older Europeans – especially those with less education – are more suspicious of the European project and less trusting of the European Parliament than younger Europeans are.", "zh": "最近有一项研究指出，年龄较大的欧洲人 — — 特别是那些受教育程度较低的人 — — 对欧洲同一进程的疑虑更深，对欧洲议会的信任程度也低于年轻一代。", "index": 6233}
{"en": "This is surprising, given that memories of World War II and its legacy should be fresher for older generations.", "zh": "这点有些出乎意料，因为照理来说老一代人应该对第二次世界大战的记忆及其遗产更为熟知。", "index": 6234}
{"en": "Nevertheless, their skepticism toward democratic EU institutions may explain their receptiveness to authoritarian leaders.", "zh": "然而，他们对欧盟民主机构的怀疑可能解释了他们对专制领导人的接纳行为。", "index": 6235}
{"en": "Most likely, a growing sense of insecurity is pushing the elderly into the populists’ arms.", "zh": "最有可能的是，日益增加的不安全感正在将老年人推向民粹主义者的怀抱。", "index": 6236}
{"en": "Leaving aside country-specific peculiarities, nationalist parties all promise to stem global forces that will affect older people disproportionately.", "zh": "而在针对每个国家各自特点的许诺之外，各民族主义政党都承诺要遏制那些对老年人构成不成比例影响的全球性力量。", "index": 6237}
{"en": "For example, immigration tends to instill more fear in older voters, because they are usually more attached to traditional values and self-contained communities.", "zh": "比如说，年长选民一般会对移民产生更多的恐惧，因为他们通常更加依赖于传统价值观和自给自足的社区。", "index": 6238}
{"en": "Likewise, globalization and technological progress often disrupt traditional or legacy industries, where older workers are more likely to be employed.", "zh": "同样全球化和技术进步经常会冲击一些传统或遗留行业，而这些行业更有可能雇用老年人。", "index": 6239}
{"en": "The rise of the digital economy, dominated by people in their twenties and thirties, is also pushing older workers to the margins.", "zh": "由20~30岁人群主导的数字经济也在把老年工人推向边缘。", "index": 6240}
{"en": "But, unlike in the past, crumbling pension systems can no longer absorb such labor-market shocks. The result is that older workers who lose their job are condemned to long-term unemployment.", "zh": "但与过去不同的是，摇摇欲坠的养老金体系再也无法吸收这种劳动力市场冲击，结果是老年工人一旦失去工作就将陷入长期失业。", "index": 6241}
{"en": "Moreover, pensioners now have reason to worry about threats to their retirement benefits from their own children.", "zh": "此外，养老金领取者现在也有理由担心自己后代的退休福利待遇会受到威胁。", "index": 6242}
{"en": "Young people, frustrated with socioeconomic systems that are clearly tilted in favor of retirees, are increasingly calling for fairer intergenerational redistribution of scarce resources.", "zh": "年轻人对明显偏向退休人员的社会经济体系感到沮丧并日益呼吁对稀缺资源进行更公平的代际再分配。", "index": 6243}
{"en": "For example, Italy’s Five Star Movement, which governs in a coalition with the League, recently called for a “citizen’s income” that would be available to all unemployed people regardless of age.", "zh": "比如与意大利联盟党联合执政的五星运动党最近提出要对所有失业人士 — — 无论年龄 — — 发放“公民收入 ” 。", "index": 6244}
{"en": "So, while right-wing populists have attracted older voters, left-wing populist have gained a following among younger generations.", "zh": "可见虽然右翼民粹主义者吸引了年长的选民，但左翼民粹主义者也在年轻一代中赢得了追随者。", "index": 6245}
{"en": "By backing right-wing populists, older voters hope to return to a time when domestic affairs were insulated from global forces and national borders were less porous.", "zh": "通过支持右翼民粹主义者，年长选民希望回到那个内政不太受全球势力左右且国界不那么容易被穿越的时代。", "index": 6246}
{"en": "At the heart of today’s nationalist politics is a promise to preserve the status quo – or even to restore a mythical past.", "zh": "当前民族主义政治的核心是承诺要保持现状 — — 甚至回到那个虚无缥缈的过去。", "index": 6247}
{"en": "Hence, nationalist politicians often resort to nostalgic rhetoric to mobilize their older supporters.", "zh": "因此民族主义政治家经常诉诸一些怀旧言论来鼓动自己那些年长支持者。", "index": 6248}
{"en": "For his part, Trump has pledged to bring back jobs in the American Rust Belt, once the center of US manufacturing.", "zh": "比如特朗普就承诺要将就业职位带回到曾经是美国生产中心的北部铁锈带地区。", "index": 6249}
{"en": "Likewise, there could be no clearer symbol of resistance to change than his proposed wall on the US-Mexico border.", "zh": "同时也没有什么比他提出的美墨边境墙更具有明确的抵制变革象征意义了。", "index": 6250}
{"en": "And his crackdown on illegal immigration and ban on travelers from predominantly Muslim countries signals his commitment to a “pure” American nation.", "zh": "而他对非法移民的打击以及针对主要穆斯林国家公民的入境禁令则标志着他对一个“纯粹”美国国家的承诺。", "index": 6251}
{"en": "Similarly, in continental Europe, right-wing populists want to return to a time before the adoption of the euro and the Schengen system of passport-free travel within most of the EU.", "zh": "同样在欧洲大陆，右翼民粹主义者希望回归到欧元和大部分国家申根无护照旅行制度实施之前的年代。", "index": 6252}
{"en": "And they often appeal directly to older voters by promising to lower the retirement age and expand pension benefits (both are flagship policies of the League).", "zh": "他们通常会用降低退休年龄和扩大养老金福利（这两者都是意大利联盟党的主要政策）的承诺来直击年长选民。", "index": 6253}
{"en": "In the United Kingdom, the “Leave” campaign promised vindication for those who have been left behind in the age of globalization.", "zh": "在英国 ， “ 脱欧”运动承诺要为那些被全球化时代抛弃的人做主。", "index": 6254}
{"en": "Never mind that it also touted the idea of a free and independent “Global Britain.”", "zh": "不过它也大肆吹嘘要建立一个自由和独立的“全球性英国 ” 。", "index": 6255}
{"en": "The Brexiteers are not known for their consistency.", "zh": "脱欧者的善变也不是什么新鲜事了。", "index": 6256}
{"en": "At any rate, to the extent that today’s populist wave is driven by demographics, it is not likely to crest anytime soon.", "zh": "无论如何，由于当前的民粹主义浪潮是由人口统计数据推动的，因此这一趋势不太可能会迅速到达顶点。", "index": 6257}
{"en": "In graying societies, the political clout of the elderly will steadily grow; and in rapidly changing economies, their ability to adapt will decline.", "zh": "在日渐老龄化的社会中老年人的政治影响力将稳步增长，但在快速变化的经济中他们的适应能力又会下降。", "index": 6258}
{"en": "As a result, older voters will demand more and more socioeconomic security, and irresponsible populists will be waiting in the wings to accommodate them.", "zh": "因此年龄较大的选民将寻求越来越多的社会经济安全感，而不负责任的民粹主义者正时刻准备着去安抚他们。", "index": 6259}
{"en": "Can anything be done?", "zh": "那我们对此有何对策？", "index": 6260}
{"en": "To stem the nationalist tide, mainstream parties urgently need to devise a new social compact that addresses the mounting sense of insecurity among older voters.", "zh": "为了遏制民族主义潮流，主流政党迫切需要设计一种新的社会契约以疏解老年选民日益增长的不安全感。", "index": 6261}
{"en": "They will need to strike a better balance between openness and protection, innovation and regulation; and they will need to do so without falling into a regressive populist trap.", "zh": "它们需要在开放和保护、创新和监管之间取得更好的平衡；而且需要在避免陷入民粹主义倒退陷阱的情况下做到这一点。", "index": 6262}
{"en": "The answer is not to suffocate global forces, but to render them more tolerable.", "zh": "答案不是要扼杀全球性力量，而是让它们变得更加可以接受。", "index": 6263}
{"en": "Citizens of all ages need to be equipped to face current and future disruptions.", "zh": "所有年龄段的公民都需要具备应对当前和未来冲击的能力。", "index": 6264}
{"en": "In this sense, it is better to empower the elderly than simply to protect them. Most advanced economies simply cannot afford massive new benefits for an oversized interest group.", "zh": "从这个意义上讲，与其只是保护老年人，不如去赋予他们权力，因为大多数发达经济体根本无法为这么一个超大型利益集团带来巨大的新利益。", "index": 6265}
{"en": "And besides, a policy that makes people reliant on some form of external support is morally questionable, at best.", "zh": "此外一项让人们依赖某种形式外部支持的政策至少在道德上是有问题的。", "index": 6266}
{"en": "Instead, governments should focus on upgrading older workers’ skills, creating more opportunities for older and younger generations to work together, and holding disruptors accountable for the socioeconomic consequences they generate.", "zh": "相反，政府应该专注于提升老年劳动者的技能，为老一辈和年轻一代创造更多机会一起合作，让那些搅局者承担因他们产生的社会经济后果。", "index": 6267}
{"en": "Subsidies to the most vulnerable should remain a last resort.", "zh": "那些对最弱势群体的补贴应当是最后的手段。", "index": 6268}
{"en": "In many ways, older voters’ infatuation with populists is a cry for help.", "zh": "在许多方面看来，年长选民对民粹主义者的迷恋其实是一种求救的呼声。", "index": 6269}
{"en": "It is up to enlightened politicians to respond to it constructively.", "zh": "而开明的政治家应该对此建设性的回应。", "index": 6270}
{"en": "A Global Agenda for Seven Billion", "zh": "70亿人的全球日程", "index": 6271}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Late next month, a child will be born – the 7th billion citizen of planet Earth. We will never know the circumstances into which he or she was born.", "zh": "纽约 — — 下个月晚些时候出生的某个孩子将成为地球的第70亿位公民。 我们不会知道他会出生在什么环境中。", "index": 6272}
{"en": "We do know that the baby will enter a world of vast and unpredictable change – environmental, economic, geopolitical, technological, and demographic.", "zh": "但我们知道，这个孩子进入的是一个面临着不可预料的大变局的世界，不管是环境、经济、地缘政治、技术，还是人口。", "index": 6273}
{"en": "The world’s population has tripled since the United Nations was created in 1945.", "zh": "自联合国于1945年成立以来，世界人口已经翻了三倍，并且仍在增长，人口一起增长的是土地、能源、食品和水源压力。", "index": 6274}
{"en": "And our numbers keep growing, with corresponding pressures on land, energy, food, and water. The global economy is generating pressures as well: rising joblessness, widening social inequalities, and the emergence of new economic powers.", "zh": "全球经济也在制造压力：失业人数不断上升，社会不平等不断加剧，新的经济势力不断形成。", "index": 6275}
{"en": "These trends link the fate and future of today’s seven billion people as never before. No nation alone can solve the great global challenges of the twenty-first century. International cooperation is a universal need.", "zh": "这些趋势比以前更加紧密地与现今的70亿人民的命运和未来联系在一起。 没有哪个国家可以单枪匹马解决21世纪的重大全球挑战。", "index": 6276}
{"en": "The 66th session of the UN General Assembly is a renewed opportunity for the countries of the world to set aside narrow, short-term interests and commit to cooperative efforts to address humanity’s long-term imperatives.", "zh": "第66届联合国大会是一次崭新的机会，让各国抛弃狭隘的短期利益，承诺合作解决人类的长期使命。", "index": 6277}
{"en": "At a time when all nations are experiencing individual challenges, we need to forge a worldwide common agenda that can help to ensure that the seven billionth baby and future generations grow up in a world characterized by sustainable peace, prosperity, freedom, and justice.", "zh": "如今，所有国家都在经历各自的问题，我们需要创造一个全球共同日程表来帮助我们确保第70亿位公民以及我们的后代能在持续和平、繁荣、自由和公正的世界中成长。", "index": 6278}
{"en": "To help create this future, I am focusing my second term as Secretary-General on five global imperatives – five generational opportunities to shape the world of tomorrow by the decisions we make today.", "zh": "为了创造这样的未来，我的第二个联合国秘书长任期将专注于五大全球使命 — — 五大以我们的当前决策创造明日世界的代际机会。", "index": 6279}
{"en": "The first and greatest of these imperatives is sustainable development. We all must understand that saving our planet, lifting people out of poverty, and advancing economic growth are one and the same fight. We must connect the dots between climate change, water scarcity, energy shortages, global health, food security, and women’s empowerment. Solutions to one problem must be solutions for all.", "zh": "我们所有人都必须明白，拯救地球、消灭贫困、推进经济增长是殊途同归之事。 我们必须把气候变化、水资源匮乏、能源短缺、全球卫生、食品安全和女性权利诸事联系起来。", "index": 6280}
{"en": "In the next five years, we need to create a new economic vision for sustainable development and forge global consensus on a binding climate change agreement.", "zh": "在未来五年中，我们需要创造一个新的可持续发展愿景，在有约束力的气候变化协议问题上达成全球一致。", "index": 6281}
{"en": "Fostering economic growth, realizing the Millennium Development Goals, and combating climate change will all depend on creating a new energy system for the twenty-first century and extending it to every person on the planet.", "zh": "推进经济增长、实现千禧年发展目标以及与气候变化做斗争均取决于创造一个面向21世纪的新的能源体系，并推广到地球上的每一个人。", "index": 6282}
{"en": "Prevention as a framework for international cooperation is a second opportunity.", "zh": "作为国际合作框架的预防是第二大机会。", "index": 6283}
{"en": "This year, the UN peacekeeping budget will total $8 billion. Think of what we could save by avoiding conflicts – by deploying political mediation missions, for example, rather than troops.", "zh": "今年联合国维和预算总额为80亿美元。 想想看，我们能够通过避免冲突剩下多少钱 — — 比如用政治调解代替维和部队。", "index": 6284}
{"en": "We know how to do this.", "zh": "我们知道怎样做这件事。", "index": 6285}
{"en": "Our record proves it – in Guinea, Kenya, and Kyrgyzstan.", "zh": "我们在圭亚那、肯尼亚和吉尔吉斯斯坦的工作记录就是明证。", "index": 6286}
{"en": "A third imperative is building a safer and more secure world. In this effort, we must be courageous in standing up for democracy, human rights, and peace.", "zh": "第三大使命是打造一个更安全、更稳定的世界。 在这个问题上，我们必须提起勇气捍卫民主、人权和和平。", "index": 6287}
{"en": "This year was one of signature achievements in restoring and securing peace – in Côte d’Ivoire, Darfur, Egypt, and elsewhere. But hatred and bloodshed still stand in the way of our vision for peace.", "zh": "今年是在重塑并确保和平取得标志性成就的一年 — — 在科特迪瓦、达尔富尔、埃及以及其他地区。 但仇恨和杀戮仍然是我们的和平愿景之路上显而易见的障碍。", "index": 6288}
{"en": "In the Middle East, we must break the stalemate.", "zh": "在中东，我们必须打破僵局。", "index": 6289}
{"en": "Palestinians deserve a state.", "zh": "巴勒斯坦人理应拥有自己的国家。", "index": 6290}
{"en": "Israel needs security.", "zh": "以色列需要安全感。", "index": 6291}
{"en": "Both want peace. A negotiated settlement can produce these outcomes, and the UN is a platform for forging such a peace.", "zh": "双方都盼望和平。 谈判解决方案可以创造这些结果，而联合国就是打造和平的平台。", "index": 6292}
{"en": "So, too, will we continue our efforts to foster democratic governance in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Sierra Leone. And, in the name of all of humanity, we will continue to push forward on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, in service of realizing a world free of nuclear weapons.", "zh": "伊拉克、阿富汗、民主刚果、塞拉利昂的民主治理进程亦然。 此外，以全人类的名义，我们将在核裁军和核不扩散方面继续前进，致力于实现无核武器的世界。", "index": 6293}
{"en": "The fourth big opportunity is supporting countries in transition.", "zh": "第四大机会是支持转型国家。", "index": 6294}
{"en": "This year’s dramatic events in North Africa and the Middle East inspired people around the globe.", "zh": "今年在北非和中东所发生的重大事件鼓舞着全球人民。", "index": 6295}
{"en": "Let us help make the Arab Spring a true season of hope for all.", "zh": "让我们携手让阿拉伯之春成为人类希望的源泉。", "index": 6296}
{"en": "In Libya, we are deploying a new UN support mission to assist the country’s transitional authorities in establishing a new government and legal order, consistent with the aspirations of the Libyan people.", "zh": "在利比亚，我们正在部署新的联合国支持计划，协助该国过渡当局建立符合利比亚人民愿望的新政府和法律秩序。", "index": 6297}
{"en": "Syria is a special concern.", "zh": "叙利亚是个特别的问题。", "index": 6298}
{"en": "For six months we have seen escalating violence and repression.", "zh": "这半年以来，我们看到那里的暴力和镇压在不断升级。", "index": 6299}
{"en": "The government has repeatedly pledged to undertake reforms and listen to its people. It has not done so.", "zh": "叙利亚政府一再承诺实施改革、听取人民的意见，但始终不见实践。", "index": 6300}
{"en": "The moment to act is now.", "zh": "是时候采取措施了。", "index": 6301}
{"en": "The violence must stop.", "zh": "暴力必须停止。", "index": 6302}
{"en": "Last but not least is the imperative of working with and for women and young people.", "zh": "最后一项使命是与女性和年轻人携手共进。", "index": 6303}
{"en": "Women hold up more than half the sky and represent much of the world’s unrealized potential.", "zh": "女性顶起的不止半边天，她们代表着大部分人类为意识到的潜能。", "index": 6304}
{"en": "We need their full engagement – in government, business, and civil society.", "zh": "我们需要完全接纳女性 — — 不管是政府、商业还是公民社会。", "index": 6305}
{"en": "The UN has placed a high priority on promoting women at all levels of the Organization and this year, for the first time, UN Women is operating to promote the interests and rights of women all over the world.", "zh": "联合国已经将全面提升女性在联合国中的地位作为高级优先事项，而在今年，联合国女性首次开始在全世界致力于提升女性权益。", "index": 6306}
{"en": "Seven billion people now look toward the United Nations for solutions to the world’s great global challenges.", "zh": "如今，70亿人看着联合国，希望它拿出解决方案应对世界重大挑战。", "index": 6307}
{"en": "They hold different religions and backgrounds but common dreams and aspirations.", "zh": "他们的信仰和背景各不相同，但梦想和愿望是一样的。", "index": 6308}
{"en": "Our global future depends on bringing these individual talents and universal rights together in common cause.", "zh": "地球的未来取决于将个人天赋和普世权利集中于共同事业下。", "index": 6309}
{"en": "Let our common agenda begin.", "zh": "让我们启动共同日程吧。", "index": 6310}
{"en": "A Global Consensus Against Terrorism", "zh": "全球反恐舆论", "index": 6311}
{"en": "Mention the United Nations and the first reaction is likely to be the ongoing oil-for-food scandal and what it will mean for Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s ability to lead the organization for the remaining year and a half of his tenure.", "zh": "一提及联合国，第一个反应可能就是正闹得沸沸扬扬的石油换食品丑闻，以及这一事件给联合国秘书长科菲·安南在今年及他余下的一半任期中对该组织的领导能力所带来的影响。", "index": 6312}
{"en": "But there is much more going on at the UN than investigations.", "zh": "但是除了调查之外，联合国内还在经历更多事情。", "index": 6313}
{"en": "Reform is in the air – in part because of the scandal, but also because of the UN’s inability to deal effectively with challenges ranging from Rwanda and Kosovo to Iraq and, most recently, Sudan.", "zh": "改革气氛弥漫 — — 一部分由于丑闻，同时也因为联合国在处理从卢旺达、科索沃到伊拉克以及最近苏丹问题上表现出来的无能和无效性。", "index": 6314}
{"en": "Even the UN’s most ardent supporters now recognize that change is called for if the organization is to make a significant contribution to international peace and security.", "zh": "即使是联合国最忠实的支持者，现在也开始意识到，如果联合国要对国际和平与安全做出重要贡献的话，就必须有所改变。", "index": 6315}
{"en": "Some of the reform talk concerns the UN Security Council’s composition.", "zh": "一些有关改革的讨论涉及到联合国安理会的构成。", "index": 6316}
{"en": "The Security Council represents what the World War II Allies believed the post-war world would look like and how it should be run.", "zh": "安理会代表了二战同盟军所认同的战后世界格局以及如何管理这个世界。", "index": 6317}
{"en": "This helps to explain why a much-weakened France was made a permanent member of the Council – and why Germany and Japan (and a not-yet independent India) were not.", "zh": "这有助于解释为何一个力量已经大为削弱的法国能够成为安理会的常任理事国 — — 而德国和日本（以及还未独立的印度）却不能。", "index": 6318}
{"en": "Defending the Security Council’s current make-up is impossible; the need for change is beyond debate.", "zh": "维持安理会目前的构成状态是不可能的，改变的需求无可争议。", "index": 6319}
{"en": "But coming up with an approach that gains broad international support will prove extremely difficult.", "zh": "但是要通过一种获得广泛国际支持的途径来达成此目标极度困难。", "index": 6320}
{"en": "Great Britain and France will resist being replaced by a single EU seat, while making Germany a permanent member would only exacerbate the problem of Europe’s relative over-representation.", "zh": "大英国和法国将会抵制他们两国被一个欧盟席位所取代，并且将德国推上常任理事国成员议席只会加剧欧洲相对的超额代表。", "index": 6321}
{"en": "Pakistan would object to adding India to the Security Council; Argentina, Chile, and Mexico to adding Brazil; Nigeria to South Africa (and vice-versa); and several countries, including China, Indonesia, and South Korea, might resist creating a permanent seat for Japan.", "zh": "巴基斯坦将反对把印度加为安理会成员；阿根廷、智利和墨西哥将反对巴西；尼日利亚反对南非（反之亦然 ） ； 还有几个国家包括中国、印度尼西亚和韩国，也许反对日本成为常任理事国。", "index": 6322}
{"en": "Clearly, fixing the Security Council will require considerable time and political effort.", "zh": "显然，确定安理会需要大量的时间和政治努力。", "index": 6323}
{"en": "In the meantime, there is important work to be done. One productive avenue would be to follow up on one of the recommendations of the High Level Panel that was endorsed by Annan; namely, that all UN members go on record declaring that terrorism has no place in today’s world.", "zh": "同时，还有重要的工作要做，采取一项有效手段加强由安南签署成立的高级别小组(High Level Panel)所提出的一个建议，即所有联合国成员国都应当签署一个宣称恐怖主义在今日世界绝无立足之地的文件。", "index": 6324}
{"en": "This will prove more difficult than it first sounds.", "zh": "这做起来可比第一次听到的时候难多了。", "index": 6325}
{"en": "For too long, the international community has tolerated terrorism – the intentional killing of civilians and noncombatants by non-state actors for political purposes – on the grounds that, on occasion, “one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.”", "zh": "国际社会已经容忍恐怖主义太久了 — — 非政府机构有时出于“一个人的恐怖主义者是另一个人的自由战士”的理由，为了达到政治目的故意杀害平民和非战斗人员。", "index": 6326}
{"en": "Historians have the luxury of debating whether terrorism may have been justified in certain situations in the past.", "zh": "历史学家对恐怖主义可能在过去某些情形下被合理评价进行过大量辩论。", "index": 6327}
{"en": "We do not.", "zh": "我们不用这么做。", "index": 6328}
{"en": "Modern terrorism is too destructive to be tolerated, much less supported.", "zh": "现代恐怖主义太具破坏性以至于我们已经不能容忍，不能再对它有任何支持了。", "index": 6329}
{"en": "Weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons – are just that, and no cause can excuse their use.", "zh": "正是这些大规模杀伤性武器 — — 核武器、生物武器以及化学武器，没有任何原因可以成为使用这些武器的借口。", "index": 6330}
{"en": "Moreover, as the terrorist attacks on America of 2001 showed, weapons as basic as box-cutters can become weapons of mass destruction if they are used to exploit the vulnerabilities of modern, global life.", "zh": "此外，正如恐怖分子2001年袭击美国所表现出的那样，如果被用以伤害当今全球的脆弱生命，即使是像纸箱切割刀这样基本的武器也会成为大规模杀伤性武器。", "index": 6331}
{"en": "Terrorism is even less justified given that political avenues exist nowadays for pursuing political aims.", "zh": "考虑到现存的为达成政治目的而使用的政治途径，恐怖主义更欠正当。", "index": 6332}
{"en": "Palestinians can negotiate their future relationship with Israel and can count on American, Russian, European, and UN assistance.", "zh": "巴勒斯坦能与以色列就他们未来的关系进行谈判，并能依赖于美国、俄罗斯、欧洲和联合国的援助。", "index": 6333}
{"en": "Iraqis have elected their own representatives and are poised to write their constitution.", "zh": "伊拉克人已经选举出了他们自己的代表，正准备起草他们的宪法。", "index": 6334}
{"en": "No one pursuing reasonable goals and who is prepared to compromise can argue that terrorism is his or his group’s only option.", "zh": "没有任何一个寻求合理目标或准备和解的人可以辩称恐怖主义是他的或他们党派的唯一选择方案。", "index": 6335}
{"en": "The world has already taken some important steps against terrorism.", "zh": "全世界已经采取了一些重要的措施来反对恐怖主义。", "index": 6336}
{"en": "A dozen international conventions and numerous UN resolutions commit governments to oppose hostage taking, the hijacking of civilian aircraft, and terrorism more broadly.", "zh": "12个反恐怖主义公约和诸多联��国决议要求各国政府更广泛地抵制绑架人质、劫持民用航班以及恐怖主义。", "index": 6337}
{"en": "Similarly, the mandate of the Financial Action Task Force, created in 1989 to curb money laundering, has grown and become focused mainly on curbing terrorist financing.", "zh": "同样，为打击清洗黑钱而成立于1989年的“国际金融特别行动组 ” （ Financial Action Task Force）已经羽翼丰满，并把重点主要放在了打击恐怖主义融资上面。", "index": 6338}
{"en": "UN Security Council Resolution 1373, passed after the September 11 attacks, calls on states to deny safe haven to terrorists, bring to justice anyone associated with terrorism, suppress recruitment by terrorist groups, block terrorists’ efforts to acquire weapons, and cooperate with other governments and international organizations in tracking suspects and boosting security.", "zh": "911事件之后，联合国安理会通过的1373号决议，呼吁各国拒绝为恐怖分子提供安全避难，依法惩处任何与恐怖主义有关联的人，查禁恐怖主义集团的招募，堵住恐怖主义分子获得武器的各种途径，并与其他政府和国际组织一同追踪恐怖主义嫌疑犯并加强安全。", "index": 6339}
{"en": "What is missing is a new, 13th convention that closes the loophole that seems to permit governments to decide what constitutes terrorism and what does not.", "zh": "允许政府来决定什么是恐怖主义的构成是一个漏洞，现在缺少的是一个新的第13个公约来弥补这一漏洞。", "index": 6340}
{"en": "Broad agreement is needed that any intentional killing of civilians and noncombatants is unacceptable, and that its perpetrators and supporters must be punished.", "zh": "我们需要在广范围内达成一致，任何故意杀害平民及非战斗人员的行径都是不可接受的，任何罪犯或帮凶必须接受严惩。", "index": 6341}
{"en": "Of course, such a convention will not prevent all future acts of terrorism.", "zh": "当然，这样一个公约并不能防范将来所有的恐怖主义行动。", "index": 6342}
{"en": "But ideas matter.", "zh": "但是这个观念很重要。", "index": 6343}
{"en": "Terrorism needs to be de-legitimized in the way that slavery has been.", "zh": "恐怖主义应当像奴隶制一样被定为非法化。", "index": 6344}
{"en": "Doing so will make governments and individuals think twice before becoming a party to terrorism; it should also make it less difficult to garner support for international action against those who nevertheless carry it out.", "zh": "这样做能使得政府和个人在加入恐怖主义阵营前三思而后行；也为那些反对实施恐怖主义行动的国际行动争取更多支持提供方便。", "index": 6345}
{"en": "We are taught early on in our lives that the end cannot justify the means.", "zh": "我们自小就被教育，即使目标正确，也不能不择手段。", "index": 6346}
{"en": "It is time to put this principle into effect before many more innocent lives are lost.", "zh": "在更多的无辜生命丧失之前，是时候将这条准则付诸实施了。", "index": 6347}
{"en": "A Global Green New Deal", "zh": "全球绿色新政", "index": 6348}
{"en": "NAIROBI – With unemployment soaring, bankruptcies climbing, and stock markets in free-fall, it may at first glance seem sensible to ditch the fight against climate change and put environmental investments on hold.", "zh": "内罗毕 - - 目前，全球失业率窜升，破产上升而且股市大跌。 猛地一看，放弃应付气候变化以及暂缓环境投资或许是有道理的。", "index": 6349}
{"en": "But this would be a devastating mistake of immediate, as well as inter-generational, proportions.", "zh": "但是这将会是一个错误，其影响马上就会形成，而且会持续几代人。", "index": 6350}
{"en": "Far from burdening an already over-stressed, over-stretched global economy, environmental investments are exactly what is needed to get people back to work, get order books flowing, and assist in powering economies back to health.", "zh": "环境投资不仅不会给已经困难重重、举步维艰的全球经济带来负担，而且会正好给人们带来工作、订单并且协助各国经济恢复健康。", "index": 6351}
{"en": "In the past, concern for the environment was viewed as a luxury; today, it is a necessity – a point grasped by some, but by no means all, economic architects yet.", "zh": "如今，这是一项必需品。 有些人认识到了这一点，但是，并不是所有的经济规划者也都有这样的意识。", "index": 6352}
{"en": "A big slice of President Barack Obama’s $825 billion stimulus package for the United States includes a boost to renewable energy, “weatherizing” a million homes, and upgrading the country’s inefficient electricity grid.", "zh": "奥巴马总统价值八千二百五十亿美元的经济刺激计划中有一大部分包括大力提高可再生能源，给一百万房屋改进取暖御寒性能并且改进美国低效率的电网系统。", "index": 6353}
{"en": "Such investments could generate an estimated five million “green-collar” jobs, provide a shot in the arm for the construction and engineering industries, and get America back into the equally serious business of combating climate change and achieving energy security.", "zh": "这些投资可以产生大约五百万“绿领”工作，给建筑和工程产业注入一剂强心针并且把美国带回到气候变化以及实现能源安全的同样重要的任务上来。", "index": 6354}
{"en": "The Republic of Korea, which is losing jobs for the first time in more than five years, has also spotted the green lining to grim economic times.", "zh": "韩国在五年来第一次出现了失业上升的情况，但是也在严峻的经济时期中发现了绿色内容。", "index": 6355}
{"en": "President Lee Myung-Bak’s government plans to invest $38 billion employing people to clean up four major rivers and reduce disaster risks by building embankments and water-treatment facilities.", "zh": "李明博总统计划投资三千八百亿美元，雇佣人工清理四条主要的河流并且通过建设防护以及水处理设施来减少灾害风险。", "index": 6356}
{"en": "Other elements of Lee’s plan include construction of eco-friendly transportation networks, such as high-speed railways and hundreds of kilometers of bicycle tracks, and generating energy using waste methane from landfills.", "zh": "李总统计划的其他要素还包括建设生态友好的运输网络，例如高速铁路以及几百公里长的自行车车道，并且从垃圾堆中利用甲烷来制造能源。", "index": 6357}
{"en": "The package also counts on investments in hybrid vehicle technologies.", "zh": "这一计划还大力投资于混合燃料汽车技术。", "index": 6358}
{"en": "Similar pro-employment “Green New Deal” packages have been lined up in China, Japan, and the United Kingdom.", "zh": "中国、日本以及英国也有类似促进就业的“绿色新政”计划。", "index": 6359}
{"en": "They are equally relevant to developing economies in terms of jobs, fighting poverty, and creating new opportunities at a time of increasingly uncertain commodity prices and exports.", "zh": "这些计划对于发展中国家在就业、减少贫困并且在原材料价格和出口形势越发不确定的时候创造新的机遇同样重要。", "index": 6360}
{"en": "In South Africa, the government-backed Working for Water initiative – which employs more than 30,000 people, including women, youth, and the disabled – also sees opportunity in crisis.", "zh": "南非政府支持的治水计划雇佣三万人以上，包括妇女、年轻人以及残疾人。 这一计划也在危机中看到了机遇。", "index": 6361}
{"en": "The country spends roughly $60 million annually fighting invasive alien plants that threaten native wildlife, water supplies, important tourism destinations, and farmland.", "zh": "南非每年大约花费六千万美元清除威胁本国野生动物、水供应、重要旅游景点以及农地的外国侵入植物。", "index": 6362}
{"en": "This work is set to expand as more than 40 million tons of invasive alien plants are harvested for power-station fuel.", "zh": "随着四千多万吨侵入植物被割除用于发电燃料，这一计划将会扩大。", "index": 6363}
{"en": "As a result, an estimated 500 megawatts of electricity, equal to 2% of the country’s electricity needs, will be generated, along with more than 5,000 jobs.", "zh": "结果，将会产生大约五百千瓦的电力，相当于国家用电需求的百分之二，同时还会创造出五千个工作岗位。", "index": 6364}
{"en": "So it is clear that some countries now view environmental investments in infrastructure, energy systems, and ecosystems as among the best bets for recovery.", "zh": "因此，某些国家现在把在基础设施、能源系统以及生态系统上的环境投资视为经济复苏的最佳手段。", "index": 6365}
{"en": "Others may be unsure about the potential returns from investing in ecosystem services such as forest carbon storage or in renewable energy for the 80% of Africans who have no access to electricity.", "zh": "还有一些国家或许并不十分清楚投资于生态系统服务的潜在回报。", "index": 6366}
{"en": "Still others may simply be unaware of how to precisely follow suit.", "zh": "这些包括森林二氧化碳储存或者为没有电的百分之八十的非洲人提供可再生能源。", "index": 6367}
{"en": "In early February, the United Nations Environment Program will convene some of the world’s leading economists at the UN’s headquarters in New York.", "zh": "二月上旬，联合国环境规划署将在纽约联合国总部召集某些世界主要经济体国家开会。 会议上将会推出全球绿色新政计划。", "index": 6368}
{"en": "A strategy for a Global Green New Deal, tailored to different national challenges, will be fleshed out in order to assist world leaders and ministers craft stimulus packages that work on multiple fronts.", "zh": "这一计划将会针对不同国家的挑战而做出调整，从而协助世界各国的领导人和政府部长们制定在多种方面都奏效的经济刺激计划。", "index": 6369}
{"en": "The Global Green New Deal, which UNEP launched as a concept in October 2008, responds to the current economic malaise.", "zh": "联合国环境规划署在2008年十月推出了全球绿色新政这一概念，目的是应对当前的经济危机。", "index": 6370}
{"en": "Spent wisely, however, these stimulus packages could trigger far-reaching and transformational trends, setting the stage for a more sustainable, urgently needed Green Economy for the twenty-first century.", "zh": "但是，如果这些经济刺激计划得以明智地实施，就将会带来影响深远以及变革性的趋势，为二十一世纪急需的、更为可持续的绿色经济奠定基础。", "index": 6371}
{"en": "The trillions of dollars that have been mobilized to address current woes, together with the trillions of investors’ dollars waiting in the wings, represent an opportunity that was unthinkable only 12 months ago: the chance to steer a more resource-efficient and intelligent course that can address problems ranging from climate change and natural-resource scarcity to water shortages and biodiversity loss.", "zh": "各国已经动用了几万亿美元来应对当前的经济困境，加上投资者还有几万亿美元在等候，这就提供了一个在仅仅一年以前还是不可想像的机会，也就是导向一个更为灵巧、使用能源更为高效的解决问题的道路。 这些问题包括气候变化、自然资源贫乏、水资源短缺以及生物多样性的损失。", "index": 6372}
{"en": "Blindly pumping the current bail-out billions into old industries and exhausted economic models will be throwing good money after bad while mortgaging our children’s future.", "zh": "把目前的救市资金盲目地投入到旧产业以及穷途末路的经济模式中就是浪费钱财并且把子孙后代的未来用作抵押。", "index": 6373}
{"en": "Instead, political leaders must use these windfalls to invest in innovation, promote sustainable businesses, and encourage new patterns of decent, long-lasting employment.", "zh": "相反，政治领导人必需利用这些难得的机遇来投资于创新、促进可持续企业并且鼓励新的、体面而又长久的��业模式。", "index": 6374}
{"en": "A Global Growth Bargain", "zh": "全球增长协议", "index": 6375}
{"en": "LONDON – US President Barack Obama caught the imagination of the world when he talked recently of a new “Sputnik moment.”", "zh": "发自伦敦 — — 美国总统奥巴马最近用一场关于新“卫星时刻”的演说勾起了全世界的想象。", "index": 6376}
{"en": "He outlined a bold plan for improving education, infrastructure, and technology, and vividly compared the resolve required to put a man on the moon to the determination needed to restore growth to the US economy.", "zh": "他提出了一个全面提升教育，基础设施和科学技术的宏伟计划，并雄心勃勃地将恢复美国经济增长的志向与当年执行登月计划的决心相提并论。", "index": 6377}
{"en": "Obama is right to say that the West faces not only great challenges, but also great opportunities. In the last decade, the global economy was transformed by one billion Asian workers entering the ranks of industrial producers. In 2011, for the first time in two centuries, Europe and America face being out-produced, out-exported, and out-invested by China and the rest of the world.", "zh": "在过去十年中，全球经济将10亿亚洲劳动者转型为产业工人。 随着2011年的来临，欧美地区在两个世界以来首次在生产，出口和投资三个方面同时被中国以及世界其他国家甩在了后面。", "index": 6378}
{"en": "Yet Asia’s growth also gives the West unprecedented economic hope.", "zh": "但亚洲地区的增长也为西方都带来了前所未有的经济曙光。", "index": 6379}
{"en": "In this decade, the world will be transformed yet again by the rise of the Asian consumer. By 2020, Asia’s domestic markets will be twice the size of America’s.", "zh": "在未来十年内，世界将在亚洲消费者群体的崛起中再一次发生转变。 预计到2020年，亚洲各国的国内市场规模将达到美国的两倍。", "index": 6380}
{"en": "The world’s middle class will have swelled from one billion consumers to three billion.", "zh": "世界中产阶级的数量也将由10亿增长到30亿。", "index": 6381}
{"en": "The opportunities for growth in Europe and the US from this additional global demand are enormous.", "zh": "这一新增需求也为欧美地区的增长创造了可观的机遇。", "index": 6382}
{"en": "The countries and companies that will flourish in Asia’s new markets will be those that can provide the technology-driven, custom-built, high value-added goods and services needed to serve Asia’s two billion consumers.", "zh": "那些能为这20亿亚洲消费者提供高技术含量，针对性设计和高附加值产品和服务的国家和企业将繁荣兴旺。", "index": 6383}
{"en": "But neither Europe nor the US is in a strong enough position to take best advantage of these new markets.", "zh": "但欧美两地似乎都尚未准备好以最佳状态投入这些新市场。", "index": 6384}
{"en": "The West must again begin to out-invent, out-innovate, and out-skill the rest of the world if it is to seize the opportunities that Asia presents. Indeed, unless the West significantly expands its capital investment in engineering, science, and new technologies, it will be marginalized by countries whose governments back their innovators with hard cash.", "zh": "如果想抓住这些亚洲市场机会的话，西方必须再度开始在发明，创新和技术等方面超越其他地区。 事实上，除非西方大规模扩张其在工程，科学和新技术上的资本投资，否则就将被那些政府大力支持创新者的国家边缘化。", "index": 6385}
{"en": "Obama’s investment plan could be the foundation stone for a formal global agreement that delivers higher levels of growth to all corners of the world and creates millions of new jobs.", "zh": "奥巴马的投资计划将可能成为一份正式全球协议的奠基石，而该协议不但会为全球各地带来更高程度的增长，还将创造数百万个新就业职位。", "index": 6386}
{"en": "Under such an agreement, Europe would join the US in raising levels of investment – complementing America’s “moonshot” initiative with a program of structural reform aimed at building a digital, green, energy-efficient, and competitive economy – while China would play its part by increasing its consumption.", "zh": "在这一协议下，欧洲将与美国携手扩大投资规模 — — 通过推动一个旨在构建数字化、绿色环保，高能效以及高竞争力经济的结构改革来响应美国的“登月”倡议 — — 而中国将担负起增加消费的角色。", "index": 6387}
{"en": "I believe that such an agreement could boost the world economy by around 3% by 2014 – and lift 100 million people out of poverty.", "zh": "我个人认为这样一项协议将在2014年提升世界经济增长约3 % — —并使1亿人摆脱贫困。", "index": 6388}
{"en": "I presented this plan when I chaired the G-20 in London in 2009.", "zh": "我在2009年主持伦敦G20峰会时就提出了这一计划。", "index": 6389}
{"en": "I wanted East and West to commit to a formal strategy to deliver more enduring results than those promised by the rescue packages that we were putting together at the time.", "zh": "我希望东西双方能致力于提出一个能产生更多长期效果的正式战略，而不仅仅是那些在危机时共同承诺的拯救计划。", "index": 6390}
{"en": "Our attention was focused on preventing recession from turning into depression.", "zh": "我们的注意力集中在防止衰退转变成萧条。", "index": 6391}
{"en": "I argued that this was also the moment to pioneer a more lasting framework of growth.", "zh": "我认为这同时也是一个创设更长久发展框架的好时机。", "index": 6392}
{"en": "In the end, no agreement was possible on a shared growth objective, and there has not yet been enough political will for the coordinated action to achieve it.", "zh": "但在会议结束之前，各方并未达成一个共同发展目标的共识，也缺乏足够的政治决心去合作实现之。", "index": 6393}
{"en": "Since then, Europe and America have grown well below their capacity (despite huge unmet demand throughout the world) and unemployment has climbed to around 10% on both continents (with youth unemployment reaching an alarming 20%).", "zh": "从那以后，欧美的发展速度显著低于其实际潜力（尽管面对着全世界的巨大需求也是如此）而大西洋两岸的失业率也攀升到近10 % （ 青年人失业率则上升到危险的20 % ） 。", "index": 6394}
{"en": "The global growth agreement that evaded us in 2009 remains the unfinished work of the G-20.", "zh": "而2009年未能达成的全球发展计划至今尚未完成。", "index": 6395}
{"en": "Front-loaded public investment could be funded through an enhanced European Investment Bank.", "zh": "前期的公共投资可以通过一个增强的欧洲投资银行来进行。", "index": 6396}
{"en": "China has already laid the foundation for playing its part: its policy of xiaokang (reducing poverty and expanding the middle class) should create a market for billions of dollars of Western goods and services.", "zh": "中国在这方面已经开始为其所扮演的角色打下基础：小康政策（减少贫困并扩大中产阶级）将为西方商品和服务创造一个价值数十亿美元的市场。", "index": 6397}
{"en": "The West should propose that if China’s consumption increases by 2-4 percentage points of its GDP over the next three years (entirely possible as it improves its social safety net, cuts taxes, and puts homeownership within reach of ordinary citizens), America and Europe will expand their public investment by similar amounts.", "zh": "西方应提议如果中国的消费占GDP的比例在未来3年内增长2~4 % （ 假如中国改善其社会安全网，减税并令普通家庭都能拥有住房就完全能实现这一点 ） ， 欧美都将增加同等比例的公共投资。", "index": 6398}
{"en": "If other Asian countries do likewise, and agree to create a level playing field for exporters, we could create around 50 million additional jobs.", "zh": "如果其他亚洲国家能够效仿并同意为出口商创造一个平等的平台，我们就能额外创造大约5000万个职位。", "index": 6399}
{"en": "Of course, in the West, an investment plan invites criticism from those who prefer that we do nothing but talk about growth strategies.", "zh": "当然，在西方，这样的投资计划都会招来那些只爱空谈发展计划却不愿动手者的批评。", "index": 6400}
{"en": "Indeed, critics argue that raising public investment conflicts with the drive to reduce deficits, and warn of higher interest rates on the back of further spending.", "zh": "事实上，批评认为增加公共投资与减少赤字的目标相冲突，并担忧政府进一步增加开支的行为会导致利率升高。", "index": 6401}
{"en": "But critics are wrong about the impact on the deficit of focused investment.", "zh": "但这些批评错误估计了集中投资对赤字所产生的影响。", "index": 6402}
{"en": "A recent study by the International Monetary Fund produced unequivocal evidence that we can actually maintain deficit-reduction plans while benefiting from the additional capital investment that the US and European economies need.", "zh": "世界货币基金组织最近给出的权威证据表明，我们可以在维持赤字削减计划的同时受益于欧美经济所需的额外投资。", "index": 6403}
{"en": "My extrapolation of the IMF model shows that Western countries can boost their long-term GDP growth significantly by increasing their levels of capital investment over a three-year period.", "zh": "依据世界货币基金组织的经济模型，我推断西方国家可以通过在3年内提高投资水平来推动长期的GDP增长。", "index": 6404}
{"en": "An annual stimulus equivalent to just 0.3% of GDP yields a return in the US of 0.8% in economic growth at its peak in 2013, and 0.4% in Europe.", "zh": "一个仅等同于GDP0.3%的年度刺激计划可以为美国的GDP带来0.8%的贡献，并在2013年达到顶峰，而同样的计划则能让欧洲的GDP取得0.4%的增长", "index": 6405}
{"en": "This approach, which secures growth and cuts unemployment without raising the deficit, is needed to energize the private sector and mobilize some of the capital that has accumulated on corporate balance sheets in recent years.", "zh": "我们需要这一既能确保增长和削减失业，又不会提高赤字的手段来激活私人部门，并调动起近年来沉积在企业内部的资本。", "index": 6406}
{"en": "It also underscores the importance of the G-20 and the IMF in seeking global consensus now.", "zh": "同时也有助于凸显出G20和世界货币基金组织在达成全球共识方面的重要性 。", "index": 6407}
{"en": "The West is well placed to play its part in global renewal.", "zh": "西方在全球经济重建方面其实早已准备就位。", "index": 6408}
{"en": "Its extraordinary workforces produce world-class goods and services.", "zh": "它的优秀劳动力能提供世界级的商品和服务。", "index": 6409}
{"en": "But the West’s workforce must not be condemned to policies that willfully produce a decade of slow growth and low employment.", "zh": "但这些劳动力不应被那些蓄意导致长达10年的低速增长和高失业率的政策所拖累。", "index": 6410}
{"en": "That would be a human tragedy, not just an economic disaster.", "zh": "如果那样的话，这不但是一场经济灾难，更是一场人类悲剧。", "index": 6411}
{"en": "A Global Perfect Storm", "zh": "全球完美风暴", "index": 6412}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Dark, lowering financial and economic clouds are, it seems, rolling in from every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere.", "zh": "纽约—不管往哪个方向看，金融和经济都是阴云密布：欧元区、美国、中国概莫能外。", "index": 6413}
{"en": "Indeed, the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to find shelter.", "zh": "事实上，到2013年，全球经济可能出现极其困难的情况，没人能独善其身。", "index": 6414}
{"en": "For starters, the eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery and high oil prices undermine prospects of recovery.", "zh": "首先，欧元区危机正在恶化，由于欧元维持强势，前瞻性财政紧缩将会深化多个成员国的衰退，而外围国信贷动荡和高油价又阻挠了复苏前景。", "index": 6415}
{"en": "The eurozone banking system is becoming balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are cut off, and capital flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months.", "zh": "随着跨国及银行间信用的收缩以及希腊可能在未来几个月无序退出欧元区将导致资本外逃演变为外围国银行的完全挤兑，欧元区银行系统正在分崩离析。", "index": 6416}
{"en": "Moreover, fiscal and sovereign-debt strains are becoming worse as interest-rate spreads for Spain and Italy have returned to their unsustainable peak levels.", "zh": "此外，随着西班牙和意大利利差回到再次达到不可持续的峰值水平，财政和主权债务紧张正在恶化。", "index": 6417}
{"en": "Indeed, the eurozone may require not just an international bailout of banks (as recently in Spain), but also a full sovereign bailout at a time when eurozone and international firewalls are insufficient to the task of backstopping both Spain and Italy. As a result, disorderly breakup of the eurozone remains possible.", "zh": "事实上，欧元区所需要的可能不仅仅是针对银行（目前是西班牙银行）的国际援助，而是在欧元区和国际防火墙不足以抵御西班牙和意大利事件的情况下进行完全的主权援助。", "index": 6418}
{"en": "Farther to the west, US economic performance is weakening, with first-quarter growth a miserly 1.9% – well below potential.", "zh": "在更远的西方，美国经济表现也在萎靡，一季度增长率只有区区1.9 % ， 远低于潜在增长率。", "index": 6419}
{"en": "And job creation faltered in April and May, so the US may reach stall speed by year end.", "zh": "此外，4月和5月就业增长不振，因此美国可能会在年底陷入停滞。", "index": 6420}
{"en": "Worse, the risk of a double-dip recession next year is rising: even if what looks like a looming US fiscal cliff turns out to be only a smaller source of drag, the likely increase in some taxes and reduction of some transfer payments will reduce growth in disposable income and consumption.", "zh": "更糟糕的是，明年发生二次探底的风险正在增加：即使看起来令人悚然的美国财政悬崖最终只是次要的拖累因素，税收的增加和转移支付的减少也将削弱可支配收入和消费的增长。", "index": 6421}
{"en": "Moreover, political gridlock over fiscal adjustment is likely to persist, regardless of whether Barack Obama or Mitt Romney wins November’s presidential election.", "zh": "此外，不管是奥巴马还是罗姆尼赢得11月总统大选，关于财政调整的政治僵局都可能会持续下去。", "index": 6422}
{"en": "Thus, new fights on the debt ceiling, risks of a government shutdown, and rating downgrades could further depress consumer and business confidence, reducing spending and accelerating a flight to safety that would exacerbate the fall in stock markets.", "zh": "因此，关于债务上限的新斗争、政府破产的风险以及信用评级降级将可能进一步抑制消费和商业信心，拖累开支并加快资金涌向安全资产（从而加速股市下跌 ） 。", "index": 6423}
{"en": "In the east, China, its growth model unsustainable, could be underwater by 2013, as its investment bust continues and reforms intended to boost consumption are too little too late.", "zh": "在东方，中国的增长模式是不可持续的，如果投资不振情况期许而提振消费的改革来的太晚、力度太轻，则可能将于2013年陷入衰退。", "index": 6424}
{"en": "A new Chinese leadership must accelerate structural reforms to reduce national savings and increase consumption’s share of GDP; but divisions within the leadership about the pace of reform, together with the likelihood of a bumpy political transition, suggest that reform will occur at a pace that simply is not fast enough.", "zh": "中国新一届领导人必须加快结构性改革，降低国民储蓄，增加消费占GDP的比重；但领导人之间对改革节奏存在分歧，且政治权力的过渡可能并不平缓，这表明改革步伐可能跟不上需要。", "index": 6425}
{"en": "The economic slowdown in the US, the eurozone, and China already implies a massive drag on growth in other emerging markets, owing to their trade and financial links with the US and the European Union (that is, no “decoupling” has occurred).", "zh": "美国、欧元区和中国的经济减速已经对其他新兴市场造成了重大影响，这是由它们与美国和欧盟的贸易和金融联系决定的（也就是说 ， “ 脱钩”并没有发生 ） 。", "index": 6426}
{"en": "At the same time, the lack of structural reforms in emerging markets, together with their move towards greater state capitalism, is hampering growth and will reduce their resiliency.", "zh": "与此同时，新兴市场结构性改革的缺位以及向国家资本主义的演进正在妨碍它们的增长、削弱它们的韧性。", "index": 6427}
{"en": "Finally, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013.", "zh": "最后，在中东，以色列和美国与伊朗关于核浓缩问题的紧张对峙可能在2013年爆发。", "index": 6428}
{"en": "The current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons.", "zh": "当前的谈判可能会失败，即使收紧制裁可能也阻止不了伊朗制造核武器。", "index": 6429}
{"en": "With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession.", "zh": "由于美国和以色列不愿意用威慑的方式牵制有核的伊朗，因此2013年可能爆发军事冲突，这将导致油价的暴涨和全球衰退。", "index": 6430}
{"en": "These risks are already exacerbating the economic slowdown: equity markets are falling everywhere, leading to negative wealth effects on consumption and capital spending.", "zh": "这些风险已然对经济减速起到了推波助澜的作用：各国股市都在下跌，导致了消费和资本支出的负财富效应。", "index": 6431}
{"en": "Borrowing costs are rising for highly indebted sovereigns, credit rationing is undermining small and medium-size companies, and falling commodity prices are reducing exporting countries’ income.", "zh": "重债国的借贷成本在声声，信贷配额正在挤压中小企业，而商品价格的下跌正在拖累出口国的收入。", "index": 6432}
{"en": "Increasing risk aversion is leading economic agents to adopt a wait-and-see stance that makes the slowdown partly self-fulfilling.", "zh": "风险厌恶度的上升正在导致经济行为人采取静观其变的立场，而这给经济减速带来了某些自我实现的效果。", "index": 6433}
{"en": "Compared to 2008-2009, when policymakers had ample space to act, monetary and fiscal authorities are running out of policy bullets (or, more cynically, policy rabbits to pull out of their hats).", "zh": "与2008—2009年相比 — — 当时决策者拥有充足的行动空间 — — 货币和财政当局的手段快要用尽了（或者，更讽刺地说，快要黔驴技穷了 ） 。", "index": 6434}
{"en": "Monetary policy is constrained by the proximity to zero interest rates and repeated rounds of quantitative easing.", "zh": "货币政策已经撞上了零利率和一轮又一轮量化宽松的南墙。", "index": 6435}
{"en": "Indeed, economies and markets no longer face liquidity problems, but rather credit and insolvency crises.", "zh": "事实上，经济和市场所面临的问题早已不再是流动���，而是信用和偿债能力危机。", "index": 6436}
{"en": "Meanwhile, unsustainable budget deficits and public debt in most advanced economies have severely limited the scope for further fiscal stimulus.", "zh": "与此同时，大部分发达国家的不可持续的预算赤字和公共债务水平严重掣肘了进一步财政刺激的空间。", "index": 6437}
{"en": "Using exchange rates to boost net exports is a zero-sum game at a time when private and public deleveraging is suppressing domestic demand in countries that are running current-account deficits and structural issues are having the same effect in surplus countries.", "zh": "在私人和公共去杠杆化侵蚀着经常项目赤字国内需而结构性问题给盈余国带来相同影响的当口，用汇率来提振净出口是一个零和博弈。", "index": 6438}
{"en": "After all, a weaker currency and better trade balance in some countries necessarily implies a stronger currency and a weaker trade balance in others.", "zh": "毕竟，一国货币贬值和贸易平衡的改善必然意味着其他国家货币升值和贸易平衡的恶化。", "index": 6439}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the ability to backstop, ring-fence, and bail out banks and other financial institutions is constrained by politics and near-insolvent sovereigns’ inability to absorb additional losses from their banking systems.", "zh": "与此同时，阻挡、隔离和原著银行及其他金融机构的能力也因政治和濒于破产国无力吸收银行系统更多的债务而被束缚住了。", "index": 6440}
{"en": "As a result, sovereign risk is now becoming banking risk.", "zh": "结果，主权风险正在演变为银行风险。", "index": 6441}
{"en": "Indeed, sovereigns are dumping a larger fraction of their public debt onto banks’ balance sheet, especially in the eurozone.", "zh": "事实上，不少国家（特别是欧元区）正在把越来越多的公共债务转移到银行的资产负债表上。", "index": 6442}
{"en": "To prevent a disorderly outcome in the eurozone, today’s fiscal austerity should be much more gradual, a growth compact should complement the EU’s new fiscal compact, and a fiscal union with debt mutualization (Eurobonds) should be implemented.  In addition, a full banking union, starting with eurozone-wide deposit insurance, should be initiated, and moves toward greater political integration must be considered, even as Greece leaves the eurozone.", "zh": "为避免欧元区出现无序结果，当下的财政紧缩应该大大放缓，新的欧盟财政契约应该辅之以增长契约，财政联盟应该辅之以债务共同化（欧元债券 ） 。 此外，即使希腊脱离欧元区，也应该成立完整的银行联盟（以泛欧元区存款保险为第一步 ） ， 并考虑进一步的政治一体化。", "index": 6443}
{"en": "Unfortunately, Germany resists all of these key policy measures, as it is fixated on the credit risk to which its taxpayers would be exposed with greater economic, fiscal, and banking integration.", "zh": "不幸的是，德国阻挠着所有这些关键性政策措施，因为进一步的经济、财政和银行一体化会让其纳税人暴露于信用风险中。", "index": 6444}
{"en": "As a result, the probability of a eurozone disaster is rising.", "zh": "结果，欧元区灾难的发生可能性变大了。", "index": 6445}
{"en": "And, while the cloud over the eurozone may be the largest to burst, it is not the only one threatening the global economy.", "zh": "尽管欧元区顶上的阴云最为可怖，但这并不是唯一威胁全球经济的因素。", "index": 6446}
{"en": "Batten down the hatches.", "zh": "我们还是未雨绸缪为妙。", "index": 6447}
{"en": "A Global Solutions Network", "zh": "全球解决方案网", "index": 6448}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Great social change occurs in several ways.", "zh": "纽约—社会发生深刻变迁的方式不一而足。", "index": 6449}
{"en": "A technological breakthrough – the steam engine, computers, the Internet – may play a leading role.", "zh": "技术突破 — — 蒸汽机、计算机和互联网 — — 可能起到了领导作用。", "index": 6450}
{"en": "Visionaries, such as Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King Jr., and Nelson Mandela, may inspire a demand for justice.", "zh": "理想家 — — 比如圣雄甘地、马丁·路德·金和纳尔逊·曼德拉 — — 则受着公正要求的鼓舞。", "index": 6451}
{"en": "Political leaders may lead a broad reform movement, as with Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal.", "zh": "政治领导人也可能引领广泛的改革运动，比如富兰克林·罗斯福和他的新政。", "index": 6452}
{"en": "Our own generation urgently needs to spur another era of great social change.", "zh": "我们这一代人迫切地需要发生又一次伟大社会变革时代。", "index": 6453}
{"en": "This time, we must act to save the planet from a human-induced environmental catastrophe.", "zh": "这一回，我们必须从人类导致的环境灾难中拯救地球。", "index": 6454}
{"en": "Each of us senses this challenge almost daily.", "zh": "可以说，我们每一个人每一天都在感受这一挑战。", "index": 6455}
{"en": "Heat waves, droughts, floods, forest fires, retreating glaciers, polluted rivers, and extreme storms buffet the planet at a dramatically rising rate, owing to human activities.", "zh": "热浪、干旱、洪水、森林大火、冰川消融、河流污染、极端暴风肆虐地球的频率越来越高，而这一切都是人类活动导致的。", "index": 6456}
{"en": "Our $70-trillion-per-year global economy is putting unprecedented pressures on the natural environment.", "zh": "全球经济每年产生70万亿美元的产值，同时也对自然环境产生着前所未见的压力。", "index": 6457}
{"en": "We will need new technologies, behaviors, and ethics, supported by solid evidence, to reconcile further economic development with environmental sustainability.", "zh": "我们需要有扎实证据支撑的新技术、新行为和新伦理来协调未来经济发展和环境可持续性。", "index": 6458}
{"en": "United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is taking on this unprecedented challenge from his unique position at the crossroads of global politics and society.", "zh": "联合国秘书长潘基文正在承担这一前所未有的挑战 — — 他身居一个独一无二的位置，战在全球政治和社会的十字路口上。", "index": 6459}
{"en": "At the political level, the UN is the meeting place for 193 member states to negotiate and create international law, as in the important treaty on climate change adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992.", "zh": "在政治层面，联合国是193个成员国一起坐下来谈判的地方，1992年里约地球峰会的气候变化条约等重要国际法就产生于这类谈判。", "index": 6460}
{"en": "At the level of global society, the UN represents the world’s citizenry, “we the peoples,” as it says in the UN Charter.  At the societal level, the UN is about the rights and responsibilities of all of us, including future generations.", "zh": "在全球社会层面，联合国代表着全世界的公民 — — 联合国宪章所谓“世界各族人民”是也。 在社会层面，联合国代表着我们所有人 — — 包括我们的子孙后代 — — 的权利和义务。", "index": 6461}
{"en": "In the past two decades, governments have come up short on solutions to environmental threats.", "zh": "在过去二十年中，政府一直没能拿出应对环境挑战的方案。", "index": 6462}
{"en": "Politicians have failed to implement properly the treaties adopted at the 1992 Earth Summit.", "zh": "政客没能很好地实施1992年地球峰会通过的跳跃。", "index": 6463}
{"en": "Ban knows that strong government action remains vital, but he also recognizes that civil society must also play a larger role, especially because too many governments and politicians are beholden to vested interests, and too few politicians think in time horizons that extend past the next election.", "zh": "潘基文明白，政府的强势行动仍然是至关重要的，但他也知道，公民社会必须起到更大的作用，特别是当太多的政府和政客牵涉到既得利益而太少的政客能将目光放长到卸任以后的时候。", "index": 6464}
{"en": "To empower global society to act, Ban has launched a bold new global initiative, for which I am grateful to volunteer.", "zh": "为了增加全球社会行动的能量，潘基文抛出了一项雄心勃勃的新全球计划，我很高兴地自愿为之奔走。", "index": 6465}
{"en": "The UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network is a powerful effort to mobilize global knowledge to save the planet.", "zh": "联合国可持续发展解决方案网（Sustainable Development Solutions Network）是潘基文的力作，意在动员全球知识拯救地球。", "index": 6466}
{"en": "The idea is to use global networks of knowledge and action to identify and demonstrate new, cutting-edge approaches to sustainable development around the world.", "zh": "该计划的想法是利用全球知识和行动网识别和展示全世界的高精尖方法可持续发展新方法。", "index": 6467}
{"en": "The network will work alongside and support governments, UN agencies, civil-society organizations, and the private sector.", "zh": "该网将配合并支持政府、联合国机构、公民社会团体和私人部门。", "index": 6468}
{"en": "Humanity needs to learn new ways to produce and use low-carbon energy, grow food sustainably, build livable cities, and manage the global commons of oceans, biodiversity, and the atmosphere.", "zh": "人类需要学习新方法制造和使用低碳能源、可持续地种植粮食、建设宜居城市、治理全球共有的海洋、生物多样性和大气。", "index": 6469}
{"en": "But time is running very short.", "zh": "但时间紧迫。", "index": 6470}
{"en": "Today’s mega-cities, for example, already have to confront dangerous heat waves, rising sea levels, more extreme storms, dire congestion, and air and water pollution.", "zh": "比如，如今的大都市已面临着危险的热浪、海平面上升、极端风暴数量增加、可怕的拥挤以及空气和水污染等问题。", "index": 6471}
{"en": "Agricultural regions already need to become more resilient in the face of increased climate volatility.", "zh": "农业区也需要更强的应对气候波动增加的能力。", "index": 6472}
{"en": "And as one region in one part of the world designs a better way to manage its transport, energy needs, water supplies, or food supplies, those successes should quickly become part of the global knowledge base, enabling other regions to benefit rapidly as well.", "zh": "而当作为世界一部分的某地区设计出更好的交通、能源需求、水攻击和食品供给管理办法时，其成功应该很快地变为全球知识数据库的一部分，让其他地区也能早日获益。", "index": 6473}
{"en": "Universities have a special role to play in the new UN knowledge network.", "zh": "大学在这一新的联合国知识网中起着特殊的作用。", "index": 6474}
{"en": "Exactly 150 years ago, in 1862, Abraham Lincoln created America’s “land-grant” universities to help local communities to improve farming and the quality of life through science.", "zh": "150年前的1862年，亚伯拉罕·林肯创造了“政府授地 ” （ land-grant）大学，以帮助当地社区通过科学改善农业和生活质量。", "index": 6475}
{"en": "Today, we need universities in all parts of the world to help their societies face the challenges of poverty reduction, clean energy, sustainable food supplies, and the rest.", "zh": "如今，我们需要全世界的大学帮助所在社会应对减贫、清洁能源、可持续食品供给等挑战。", "index": 6476}
{"en": "By linking together, and putting their curricula online, the world’s universities can become even more effective in discovering and promoting science-based solutions to complex problems.", "zh": "通过互相连接以及将课程挂上网络，全世界大学可以在发现和促进基于科学的复杂问题解决之道方面变得更加高效。", "index": 6477}
{"en": "The world’s corporate sector also has a significant role to play in sustainable development.", "zh": "全球公司部门在可持续发展方面也起着重要作用。", "index": 6478}
{"en": "Now the corporate sector has two faces.", "zh": "如今，公司部门有着两副面孔。", "index": 6479}
{"en": "It is the repository of cutting-edge sustainable technologies, pioneering research and development, world-class management, and leadership in environmental sustainability.", "zh": "它是高精尖可持续技术储备库、研发活动先锋、世界级管理的先行者、环境可持续性的领导者。", "index": 6480}
{"en": "Yet at the same time, the corporate sector lobbies aggressively to gut environmental regulations, slash corporate-tax rates, and avoid their own responsibility for ecological destruction.", "zh": "但与此同时，公司部门也在大力游说放松环境监管、降低公司税率、逃避它们应付的生态毁灭责任。", "index": 6481}
{"en": "Sometimes the same company operates on both sides of the divide.", "zh": "有时候，同一家公司同时扮演着两方面的角色。", "index": 6482}
{"en": "We urgently need far-sighted companies to join the Sustainable Development Solutions Network.", "zh": "我们迫切需要具有远见卓识的公司加入到可持续发展解决方案网中来。", "index": 6483}
{"en": "These companies are uniquely placed to move new ideas and technologies into early-stage demonstration projects, thereby accelerating global learning cycles.", "zh": "这些公司在将新思想和新技术转化为早期示范工程方面能起到独一无二的作用，从而加快全球学习周期。", "index": 6484}
{"en": "Equally important, we need a critical mass of respected corporate leaders to press their peers to cease the anti-environmental lobbying and campaign-finance practices that account for the inaction of governments.", "zh": "同样重要的是，我们需要超过临界数量的广受尊敬的公司领导者来向他们的同侪施加压力，停止可能导致政府不作为的反环境游说和政治献金活动。", "index": 6485}
{"en": "Sustainable development is a generational challenge, not a short-term task.", "zh": "可持续发展是几代人都将面临的挑战，不是一朝一夕可以解决的问题。", "index": 6486}
{"en": "The reinvention of energy, food, transport, and other systems will take decades, not years.", "zh": "能源、食品、运输和其他系统的更新换代需要几十年，而不是几年。", "index": 6487}
{"en": "But the long-term nature of this challenge must not lull us into inaction.", "zh": "但该挑战的长期性质并不是我们不作为的理由。", "index": 6488}
{"en": "We must start reinventing our productive systems now, precisely because the path of change will be so long and the environmental dangers are already so pressing.", "zh": "正是因为变革需要极长时间，而环境风险已经迫在眉睫，我们才必须从现在就开始重塑我们的生产系统。", "index": 6489}
{"en": "At the Rio+20 Summit this past June, the world’s governments agreed to adopt a new set of goals on sustainable development for the period after 2015, to build upon the Millennium Development Goals’ success in reducing poverty, hunger, and disease.", "zh": "在去年6月的里约+20峰会上，全球政府同意在千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goal）在较少贫困、饥饿和病痛方面取得诸多成就的基础上设立新的面向2015年之后的可持续发展目标。", "index": 6490}
{"en": "In the post-2015 era, the fight against poverty and the fight to protect the environment will go hand in hand, reinforcing each other.", "zh": "2015年以后，全世界将携手共同抵抗贫困和保护环境。", "index": 6491}
{"en": "Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has already initiated several global processes to help establish the new post-2015 goals in an open, participatory, and knowledge-based way.", "zh": "秘书长潘基文已经启动了数项全球计划以帮助全世界以开放性、参与式、以知识为基础的方式设定面向2015年后的新目标。", "index": 6492}
{"en": "The Secretary General’s launch of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network is therefore especially timely.", "zh": "因此，秘书长启动可持续发展解决方案网的举动可谓正逢其时。", "index": 6493}
{"en": "Not only will the world adopt a new set of goals to achieve sustainable development, but it will also have a new global network of expertise to help achieve those vital objectives.", "zh": "全世界不但将接受新的可持续发展目标，还将拥有新的全球专家网络来实现这些关键目标。", "index": 6494}
{"en": "A Good Rate Hike for Europe", "zh": "欧洲升息的灵丹妙药", "index": 6495}
{"en": "Two wrongs don’t make a right.", "zh": "一错再错也不等于正确。", "index": 6496}
{"en": "Just because European governments have failed to put bread on their constituents’ tables doesn’t mean that the European Central Bank should likewise fail in its job of promoting price stability in the euro zone.", "zh": "仅仅因为欧洲政府未能把面包摆上选民的餐桌并不意味着欧洲央行也同样不能保持欧元区的价格稳定。", "index": 6497}
{"en": "That may sound obvious, but abandoning price stability is exactly what some European politicians are advocating.", "zh": "这听上去道理再明显不过，但某些欧洲政客却正在竭力鼓动放弃价格稳定。", "index": 6498}
{"en": "For example, Italian politicians, who, given Italy’s recent dismal economic performance, would seem the least qualified to offer the ECB advice on monetary policy, are nonetheless advocating interest-rate cuts.", "zh": "举例来讲，由于近来国内经济状况低迷，意大利政客照理应该是最没有资格向欧洲央行提出货币建议的，但恰恰正是他们拼命鼓吹削减利率。", "index": 6499}
{"en": "Echoing comments by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Deputy Economics Minister Mario Baldassarri said in Il Sole 24 Ore last week that all efforts to boost growth are in vain “if someone is pushing on the brake pedal.”", "zh": "秉承西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼的意志，意大利经济部副部长意大利经济部副部长巴尔达萨里上周在《二十四小时太阳报》撰文称“如果有人踩着刹车 ” ， 那么所有推动经济增长的努力都将化为泡影。", "index": 6500}
{"en": "Who’s he kidding?", "zh": "他在打趣谁？", "index": 6501}
{"en": "If anyone is “pushing down on the Italian growth brake” it is Berlusconi himself.", "zh": "如果真有谁“踩着意大利增长的刹车 ” ， 那正是贝卢斯科尼本人。", "index": 6502}
{"en": "He has made no efforts at economic reform during his term and now seeks to blame the ECB for Italy’s lame economic performance.", "zh": "他执政期间没有进行任何经济改革，现在又试图把意大利的经济疲软归罪于欧洲央行。", "index": 6503}
{"en": "But it is precisely the lack of economic reform at home that has made Italy one of the least competitive states in the euro-zone economy.", "zh": "然而，正是国内经济改革的匮乏使得意大利沦为了欧元区内最缺乏竞争力的国家。", "index": 6504}
{"en": "More than the usual “blame game” is at work here.", "zh": "这比通常所说的“责备游戏”更甚一筹。", "index": 6505}
{"en": "Pressures are mounting on the ECB to raise interest rates – and Berlusconi and Co.’s attacks are as much as an attempt to forestall future rate hikes as to get the ECB to loosen its monetary policy.", "zh": "欧洲央行升息的压力越来越大¾而贝卢斯科尼及其同伴的攻击既是为了在未来大幅升息的情况下占得先机，也是为了让欧洲央行放松其货币政策。", "index": 6506}
{"en": "Soaring energy prices, for example, have become a leading inflation risk.", "zh": "节节攀升的能源价格，举例来讲，成了导致通货膨胀的首要危险因素。", "index": 6507}
{"en": "But higher energy prices, by themselves, will not cause the ECB to pull the interest-rate trigger.", "zh": "但仅仅是能源价格上涨本身还不足以使欧洲央行调整利率。", "index": 6508}
{"en": "The key will be so-called “second-round effects” – whether growing crude prices lead to higher wage demands from trade unions.", "zh": "关键问题是所谓的“次轮效应”¾那就是原油价格上涨会不会导致工会提出增加报酬的要求。", "index": 6509}
{"en": "So far, the “social partners,” as ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet likes to call the unions, have been quiet.", "zh": "迄今为止，被欧洲央行欧洲央行行长特里谢行长特里谢习惯地称之为“社会伙伴”的工会内部仍然风平浪静。", "index": 6510}
{"en": "Should this change, the ECB will have to raise rates even if Europe’s economic growth remains slack.", "zh": "但如果情况有变，那么即便经济增长依然迟缓，欧洲央行也不得不采取升息的措施。", "index": 6511}
{"en": "The good news is that economic growth in the euro-zone economy appears to be picking up (even in Italy).", "zh": "好消息是：欧元区国家的经济增长似乎正趋于好转（意大利也不例外 ） 。", "index": 6512}
{"en": "Though second-quarter GDP growth was weak — the euro-zone average was only 0.3% year on year – third-quarter data are indicating a sustained economic pick-up in the second half of the year. Only consumption is lagging.", "zh": "尽管第二季度的国内生产总值仍不尽如人意，欧元区年均增长率只有区区0.3 % ， 但第三季度的统计数据显示：下半年经济增长正在持续性地恢复，只是消费还略显疲软。", "index": 6513}
{"en": "How will the ECB react to better economic news?", "zh": "欧洲央行对经济的恢复又将做何反应？", "index": 6514}
{"en": "Some on the Governing Council have grown uncomfortable that euro-zone interest rates have stayed so low, at 2%, for so long (more than two years).", "zh": "监管理事会的某些成员已经对两年多来欧元区利率维持在2%的低水准颇有微辞。", "index": 6515}
{"en": "True, there is no inflation problem in the short run, but the ECB’s monetary policy focuses on the medium term.", "zh": "没错，短期内不会出现通货膨胀，但欧洲央行的货币政策更加关注中期的目标。", "index": 6516}
{"en": "One particular worry is that euro-zone money supply is well above the ECB’s benchmark level, indicating an excess supply of liquidity.", "zh": "人们所担心的问题之一是欧元区的货币供应远远高于欧洲央行所拟定的基准，这显示了清偿能力已经供过于求。", "index": 6517}
{"en": "It is doubtful that the ECB would raise interest rates to curb excess liquidity so long as economic recovery remains in question.", "zh": "只要经济复苏还是个未知数，欧洲央行就不一定会提高利率，来控制过剩的清偿能力。", "index": 6518}
{"en": "Slow growth has silenced the monetarists on the ECB’s Governing Council. This will change, however, once the economic pick-up is confirmed.", "zh": "缓慢的增长速度堵住了欧洲央行监管理事会货币专家们的幽幽众口，但只要经济复苏得到确认，所有这些情况都会有所改变。", "index": 6519}
{"en": "Interest-rate hikes may be coming sooner rather than later, which is why Berlusconi and French President Jacques Chirac are talking up interest-rate cuts now.", "zh": "利率飙升可能会来得更早，这也是贝卢斯科尼和法国总统雅克·希拉克现在就大力鼓吹降低利率的原因所在。", "index": 6520}
{"en": "Meanwhile, in Germany, the elections this September may have surprising consequences for ECB monetary policy.", "zh": "与此同时，德国今年9月举行的选举可能会对欧洲央行的货币政策产生令人惊异的影响。", "index": 6521}
{"en": "Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrats’ candidate, is a reformer, holding out hope for Germany’s future – and that of Europe.", "zh": "基督教民主党候选人安格拉·默尔克是一位改革者，他为德国，以及欧洲的未来带来了希望。", "index": 6522}
{"en": "Unfortunately, Merkel’s campaign is off to a rocky start, and the recent entry of Oskar Lafontaine’s extreme left-wing party into the fray may necessitate the formation of a grand coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.", "zh": "不幸的是，默尔克的竞选从一开始就困难重重。 最近奥斯卡·拉方丹的极左翼党派加入竞争后，可能就必须建立基督教民主党和社会民主党的总体联盟。", "index": 6523}
{"en": "This would be bad news for the German economy, which could delay possible ECB interest rate hikes.", "zh": "这对德国经济是个坏消息，因为它可能延迟欧洲央行利率的迅速飙升。", "index": 6524}
{"en": "Because the expected gridlock in parliament would make reforms less likely, companies might hold off on investment, while consumers would be more likely to keep their wallets closed, because official policy would be even less clear than it is now.", "zh": "由于议会中业已存在的僵局会削弱改革的可能性，导致公司延缓投资，而消费者则更有可能合拢钱包，因为官方政策比现在还要更加捉摸不定。", "index": 6525}
{"en": "On the other hand, a center-right coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats could spark the ECB into action.", "zh": "另一方面，基督教民主党和自由民主党的中右翼联盟也可能会刺激欧洲央行采取行动。", "index": 6526}
{"en": "This raises an interesting point.", "zh": "这就提出了一个非常有趣的观点。", "index": 6527}
{"en": "The public should be relieved if the ECB raises rates, because this would most likely signal that the long-awaited economic recovery is well under way, and that inflationary repercussions are being addressed.", "zh": "欧洲央行提高利率会让公众感到如释重负，因为利率的提升可能意味着人们盼望已久的经济恢复已经开始，而通货膨胀的影响也正在得以解决。", "index": 6528}
{"en": "A hike, in other words, would indicate that good things are happening.", "zh": "换句话讲，升息意味着好的形势已经开端。", "index": 6529}
{"en": "But the public often views interest-rate increases as negative events that increase unemployment and stifle growth.", "zh": "但公众却常常把升息看作一项负面因素，认为它有可能导致失业增长、抑止经济发展。", "index": 6530}
{"en": "Blame-game politicians like Berlusconi, who have failed to put bread on the table, their minions in the media, and Keynesian economic professors who don’t understand and misrepresent Keynes sustain this distorted view.", "zh": "像贝卢斯科尼这样未能将面包摆上普通百姓的餐桌但却精于责备游戏的政客、他们在各大媒体的御用走狗和根本没有弄懂凯恩斯理论真谛的凯恩斯主义经济学家仍然紧紧抱着歪曲的观点不放。", "index": 6531}
{"en": "Europe would be a lot better off if someone told the public the truth.", "zh": "如果有人对公众说出真相，那么无疑会为欧洲的经济发展带来福音。", "index": 6532}
{"en": "A Good Year for God", "zh": "上帝的幸运年", "index": 6533}
{"en": "LONDON – It’s been a better year for God.", "zh": "伦敦 — — 上帝在这一年运气不坏。", "index": 6534}
{"en": "After withering literary assaults on the Almighty from the Oxford academic Richard Dawkins, the essayist Christopher Hitchens, and others, believers have hit back.", "zh": "在挫败牛津大学学者理查德·道金斯、散文家克里斯托弗·希钦斯和其他人对万能的主发起的文学攻击后，上帝的信徒们开始反击。", "index": 6535}
{"en": "Best of all has been The Case for God by the brilliant religion writer Karen Armstrong.", "zh": "其中最出色的要数杰出的宗教作家凯伦·阿姆斯特朗的著作《上帝的旨意 》 。", "index": 6536}
{"en": "More important still is the news that more people (certainly in Britain) are going to Christian churches of all denominations.", "zh": "更重要的是新闻中报导英国有越来越多的人走进各教派基督教堂做礼拜。", "index": 6537}
{"en": "Moreover, the Pope made a very successful visit to Britain in September.", "zh": "此外，教皇9月对英国的访问非常成功。", "index": 6538}
{"en": "We know already about heavy attendance at the country’s mosques.", "zh": "当时英国教堂人满为患的盛况给我们留下深刻的记忆。", "index": 6539}
{"en": "At this time of year, of course, many Christians who are not regular churchgoers attend the Nativity services.", "zh": "当然每到一年中这个时候，很多平常不去教堂的基督徒也赶赴教堂参加圣诞仪式。", "index": 6540}
{"en": "Carols, church bells, and mangers are still at the heart of mid-winter festivities, alongside the consumer binge.", "zh": "赞美诗、教堂钟声和马槽依然是隆冬庆典的核心内容，此外还有消费者的狂热消费。", "index": 6541}
{"en": "This year, however, the “big spend” in Europe may have been inhibited by the big winter freeze and the big austerity programs across most of the continent.", "zh": "不过今年，欧洲的“狂欢购物”可能受到遍布欧洲大陆的冬季冰雪和大规模紧缩计划的抑制。", "index": 6542}
{"en": "Even in the most Godless households, most children in Western societies probably know the details of the Christmas story.", "zh": "即使在宗教信仰最弱的家庭，西方社会的多数儿童或许也知道圣诞故事的细节。", "index": 6543}
{"en": "The travelers who can find no room at the inn.", "zh": "人满为患的小旅馆。", "index": 6544}
{"en": "The birth of a baby in the stables.", "zh": "一名婴儿出生在马厩里。", "index": 6545}
{"en": "The arrival of the wise men bearing gifts of gold, frankincense, and myrrh.", "zh": "带着黄金、乳香和没药等礼物的智者。", "index": 6546}
{"en": "We learn about all this at the same time as we are told about Father Christmas, his Lapland reindeers, and his sacks full of presents.", "zh": "我们在听说圣诞老人、拉普兰驯鹿和装满礼物的包裹时就知道了这个故事。", "index": 6547}
{"en": "We rapidly lose our belief in that winter myth.", "zh": "我们很快就不再相信这个冬天的神话。", "index": 6548}
{"en": "But we tend to retain into adulthood the same views of God that we formed in childhood.", "zh": "但孩提时对上帝形成的印像却会一直保留到成年时期。", "index": 6549}
{"en": "An old man with a long beard watches over us, and most of us retain a pretty literal opinion of the stories about his Son told in the Bible’s New Testament.", "zh": "上帝是一直照看我们的长胡子老人，而且多数人对《圣经新约》中上帝之子的故事有着相当表面化的理解。", "index": 6550}
{"en": "It is this God that atheists like Dawkins and Hitchens attack.", "zh": "道金斯和希钦斯这样的无神论者所攻击的正是我们的上帝。", "index": 6551}
{"en": "And, with such a target, it is not very difficult to poke holes and pile on the ridicule.", "zh": "而且，面对这样一个目标，故意找茬加以嘲笑似乎并非难事。", "index": 6552}
{"en": "Leave aside the fact that you can make an even stronger case against Godlessness – remember the atrocities of atheist totalitarians in the twentieth century – and consider the assault on those whose commitment to literal interpretations of religious texts means that they deny science and reason.", "zh": "撇开可以大力反驳无神论的事实不谈（二十世纪无神论极权主义份子的暴行至今还让人记忆犹新 ） ， 单说攻击字面解读宗教典籍者意味着他们否定科学和推理。", "index": 6553}
{"en": "To them the world was made in six days; evolution is a fanciful tale.", "zh": "在他们看来创世纪只需要六天，而生物进化不过是虚构的故事。", "index": 6554}
{"en": "Those of us who think that science and religion dwell in different domains, and who recall that Socrates argued that science did not teach you about morality or meaning, find that our case is undermined by the literalists and fundamentalists in every religion.", "zh": "认为科学和宗教分属于不同领域、并牢记苏格拉底“科学无法教会人道德和生命意义”教诲的我们渐渐发现，各种拘泥于字面解释的信徒和原教旨主义者破坏了我们的论据。", "index": 6555}
{"en": "There are Christians who know all about the fire and brimstone of the Book of Revelation, but seem not to have heard the instructions about generosity in the Sermon on the Mount.", "zh": "大量基督徒完全相信《启示录》中地域的硫磺与烈火，但却似乎从未听到过《山中圣训》中有关宽容大度的训诫。", "index": 6556}
{"en": "Likewise, there are hard-line Jews, such as the settler groups who drive Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem and Hebron, who have forgotten the early teachings of Jewish scholars who argued that strangers should be treated like your own people.", "zh": "同样，到处都是态度强硬的犹太人，比方说将巴勒斯坦人赶出东耶路撒冷和希伯伦家园的定居者团体，他们早就把犹太学者早期的训诫抛到了脑后，这些训诫要求犹太教信徒给予陌生人亲人般的待遇。", "index": 6557}
{"en": "And there are Muslims who ignore the Koran’s commands of pluralism, tolerance, and peace.", "zh": "还有很多穆斯林信徒对《古兰经》多元化、忍耐与和平的训诫完全无视。", "index": 6558}
{"en": "Where the atheist assault is often correct is in pinpointing the amount of harm frequently done in our world by such fundamentalists.", "zh": "无神论者攻击的正确之处在于经常能够指出此类原教旨主义者对世界所造成的危害。", "index": 6559}
{"en": "Right-wing American attitudes about their country’s place in the world are invigorated by fundamentalist dogma.", "zh": "原教旨主义教义鼓舞了右翼美国人有关自己国家国际地位的姿态。", "index": 6560}
{"en": "The United Nations is the devil’s own creation.", "zh": "联合国是魔鬼自身的创造。", "index": 6561}
{"en": "President Barack Obama is an un-American Muslim.", "zh": "巴拉克·奥巴马总统具有非美穆斯林身份。", "index": 6562}
{"en": "Palestine from the Jordan River to the coast should be handed to Israel so that the world can end with a cataclysmic Christian triumph.", "zh": "从约旦河到海岸线的巴勒斯坦领土应该交由以色列控制，这样世界就会以一场灾难性的基督教胜利结尾。", "index": 6563}
{"en": "Jewish fundamentalists obstruct any peace process that is left in the Middle East and build more illegal settlements.", "zh": "犹太原教旨主义者极力阻挠中东仅存的和平进程，继续建设非法定居点。", "index": 6564}
{"en": "Islamic fundamentalists define jihad as a war of terror against the West and call for an Islamic caliphate from the Atlantic to the Pacific.", "zh": "伊斯兰原教旨主义者将针对西方世界的恐怖主义定义为圣战，呼吁建立从大西洋到太平洋的伊斯兰王国。", "index": 6565}
{"en": "The strident and damaging dogmatism of fundamentalists of every stripe has a common feature: a truculent sense of grievance, rooted in fear and resentment of modernity.", "zh": "形形色色原教旨主义分子的教条既咄咄逼人又为祸不浅，它们都有着共同的特色： 那就是植根于对现代社会的恐惧和愤懑的气势汹汹的怨恨。", "index": 6566}
{"en": "Christian fundamentalism in America harks back to nineteenth-century populism and anti-intellectualism.", "zh": "美国的基督教原教旨主义可以追溯到十九世纪的民粹主义和反智主义。", "index": 6567}
{"en": "Members of evangelical churches associate their beliefs with the rugged individualism of the early pioneers.", "zh": "福音教会会员将自己的信仰与早期先驱不屈不挠的个人主义密切联系在一起。", "index": 6568}
{"en": "They are contemptuous of the establishment.", "zh": "他们蔑视当权人士。", "index": 6569}
{"en": "Jewish fundamentalists believe that Israel’s critics are anti-Semitic or, in the case of Jewish opponents of Israel’s harder-line policies, “self-hating Jews.”", "zh": "犹太原教旨主义者相信以色列的批评者要么是反犹份子，要么就是像以色列强硬政策的犹太反对者那样，是“自我仇恨的犹太人 ” 。", "index": 6570}
{"en": "Islamic fundamentalists reckon that what the rest of us regard as the liberalizing influence of technological progress and globalization is a brash re-run of Western colonialism.", "zh": "以色列原教旨主义者认为我们其他人眼中技术进步和全球化的自由化影响反应出西方殖民主义不可一世的重新抬头。", "index": 6571}
{"en": "For a happier New Year, we should listen to the core messages of all these great religions, above all the Confucian golden rule that we should never do to others what we would not like to be done to us.", "zh": "要想在新的一年中生活得更加愉快，我们应当听取所有伟大宗教的核心教义，特别是儒家“己所不欲、勿施于人”的金科玉律。", "index": 6572}
{"en": "What religion should teach us is not how to hate, but – to borrow again from Confucius – how to develop societies that look after and welcome the poor, the stranger, and the oppressed.", "zh": "宗教教会我们的不该是仇恨，而是 — — 再次借用孔子的名言 — — 如何建设照顾欢迎穷人、外来者和被压迫者的大同社会。", "index": 6573}
{"en": "That is the most important message for everyone, atheists included, to take from the Christian story of Christmas.", "zh": "所有人，包括无神论者，都应该从基督的圣诞故事中领会这种最重要的精神涵义。", "index": 6574}
{"en": "A Gravity Test for the Euro", "zh": "欧元重力测试", "index": 6575}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Although I appreciate that exchange rates are never easy to explain or understand, I find today’s relatively robust value for the euro somewhat mysterious.", "zh": "坎布里奇 — — 尽管我赞同汇率问题很难解释或理解清楚，但仍然对眼下欧元相对稳健的价值感到有些不解。", "index": 6576}
{"en": "Do the gnomes of currency markets seriously believe that the eurozone governments’ latest “comprehensive package” to save the euro will hold up for more than a few months?", "zh": "难道货币市场真的相信，欧元区各国政府最新的欧元拯救“完整方案”能维持几个月？", "index": 6577}
{"en": "The new plan relies on a questionable mix of dubious financial-engineering gimmicks and vague promises of modest Asian funding.", "zh": "新计划颇不靠谱，它依赖于可疑金融工程伎俩和从亚洲适量融资的含糊承诺。", "index": 6578}
{"en": "Even the best part of the plan, the proposed (but not really agreed) 50% haircut for private-sector holders of Greek sovereign debt, is not sufficient to stabilize that country’s profound debt and growth problems.", "zh": "即便是该计划的最佳部分 — — 即准备（但并未实际通过）让希腊主权债务的私人投资者损失50 % — —也不足以稳定希腊沉重的债务和增长问题。", "index": 6579}
{"en": "So how is it that the euro is trading at a 40% premium to the US dollar, even as investors continue to view southern European government debt with great skepticism?", "zh": "那么，既然投资者仍对南欧政府债务充满疑虑，为何欧元对美元仍有40%的溢价？", "index": 6580}
{"en": "I can think of one very good reason why the euro needs to fall, and six not-so-convincing reasons why it should remain stable or appreciate.", "zh": "在我看来，欧元必须下跌这一观点有一个非常充分的理由，而欧元应该维持稳定甚至升值有六个不那么令人信服的理由。", "index": 6581}
{"en": "Let’s begin with why the euro needs to fall.", "zh": "让我们从欧元为何必须下跌开始。", "index": 6582}
{"en": "Absent a clear path to a much tighter fiscal and political union, which can lead only through constitutional change, the current halfway house of the euro system appears increasingly untenable.", "zh": "在缺乏形成更紧密的财政和政治联盟的明确道路的背景下 — — 这一点只有通过修宪才能实现 — — 当前的欧元体系只是半吊子工程，且正在变得越来越难以为继。", "index": 6583}
{"en": "It seems clear that the European Central Bank will be forced to buy far greater quantities of eurozone sovereign (junk) bonds.", "zh": "显然，欧洲央行将被迫购买数量甚巨的欧元区主权（垃圾）债券。", "index": 6584}
{"en": "That may work in the short term, but if sovereign default risks materialize – as my research with Carmen Reinhart suggests is likely – the ECB will in turn have to be recapitalized.", "zh": "这样做在短期可能有效，但如果主权违约风险成为现实 — — 根据我和卡门·莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）的研究，这很有可能 — — 那么欧洲央行自身也将需要资本重组。", "index": 6585}
{"en": "And, if the stronger northern eurozone countries are unwilling to digest this transfer – and political resistance runs high – the ECB may be forced to recapitalize itself through money creation.", "zh": "此外，如果较稳健的北欧国家不愿意承担转移成本 — — 政治阻力相当大 — — 欧洲央行可能被迫用印钞来实现自身的资本重组。", "index": 6586}
{"en": "Either way, the threat of a profound financial crisis is high.", "zh": "无论如何，爆发深度金融危机的风险很高。", "index": 6587}
{"en": "Given this, what arguments support the current value of the euro, or its further rise?", "zh": "既然如此，支持欧元维持当前水平甚至有所升值的观点有哪些呢？", "index": 6588}
{"en": "First, investors might be telling themselves that in the worst-case scenario, the northern European countries will effectively push out the weaker countries, creating a super-euro.", "zh": "首先，投资者可能会告诉自己，在最坏情形下，北欧国家将抛弃疲软国家，创造新的超级欧元。", "index": 6589}
{"en": "But, while this scenario has a certain ring of truth, surely any breakup would be highly traumatic, with the euro diving before its rump form recovered.", "zh": "但是，尽管这一情景不能说完全没有可能，但欧元区的分崩离析将是高度灾难性的，欧元得先跌到底才能复苏。", "index": 6590}
{"en": "Second, investors may be remembering that even though the dollar was at the epicenter of the 2008 financial panic, the consequences radiated so widely that, paradoxically, the dollar actually rose in value.", "zh": "其次，投资者可能记得，在2008年的金融恐慌中，处于震中的美元由于恐慌影响覆盖面非常广，反而有所升值。", "index": 6591}
{"en": "Although it may be difficult to connect the dots, it is perfectly possible that a huge euro crisis could have a snowball effect in the US and elsewhere.", "zh": "尽管很难将当初的美元和现在欧元联系在一起，但巨型欧元危机仍大有可能在美国和其他地区造成连锁反应。", "index": 6592}
{"en": "Perhaps the transmission mechanism would be through US banks, many of which remain vulnerable, owing to thin capitalization and huge portfolios of mortgages booked far above their market value.", "zh": "或许传递机制会是美国银行 — — 许多美国银行仍然十分脆弱，因为它们的资本充足率很低，手中的按揭组合簿记价值也远高于市场价值。", "index": 6593}
{"en": "Third, foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds may be keen to keep buying up euros to hedge against risks to the US and their own economies.", "zh": "第三，外国央行和主权财富基金可能乐于继续购买欧元，以对冲美元和自身经济的风险。", "index": 6594}
{"en": "Government investors are not necessarily driven by the return-maximizing calculus that motivates private investors.", "zh": "政府投资者与私人投资者不同，并不一定按最大回报的标准投资。", "index": 6595}
{"en": "If foreign official demand is the real reason behind the euro’s strength, the risk is that foreign sovereign euro buyers will eventually flee, just as private investors would, only in a faster and more concentrated way.", "zh": "如果外国官方需求才是欧元强势背后的真正原因，那么欧元所面临的风险就是外国主权买家的最终逃离 — — 与私人投资者不会有什么两样，只是更快更集中。", "index": 6596}
{"en": "Fourth, investors may believe that, ultimately, US risks are just as large as Europe’s.", "zh": "第四，投资者可能会认为，说到底，美国的风险一点都不比欧洲小。", "index": 6597}
{"en": "True, the US political system seems stymied in coming up with a plan to stabilize medium-term budget deficits.", "zh": "确实如此，美国政治体系在达成稳定中期预算赤字计划方面受到了阻碍。", "index": 6598}
{"en": "Whereas the US Congress’s “supercommittee,” charged with formulating a fiscal-consolidation package, will likely come up with a proposal, it is far from clear that either Republicans or Democrats will be willing to accept compromise in an election year.", "zh": "尽管主管制定财政整合计划的美国国会“超级委员会”或许能够拿出一套���案，但共和党和民主党是否愿意在选举年妥协还远未可知。", "index": 6599}
{"en": "Moreover, investors might be worried that the US Federal Reserve will weigh in with a third round of “quantitative easing,” which would further drive down the dollar.", "zh": "此外，投资者还可能担心美联储会考虑实行第三轮“量化宽松 ” ， 这将进一步压低美元。", "index": 6600}
{"en": "Fifth, the current value of the euro does not seem wildly out of line on a purchasing-power basis.  An exchange rate of $1.4:€1 is cheap for Germany’s export powerhouse, which could probably operate well even with a far stronger euro.", "zh": "第五，欧元的当前值并未脱离购买力评价标准太远。 1欧元兑1.4美元的汇率对德国出口商来说很便宜，即使欧元出现大升值，它们也不会受到多大影响。", "index": 6601}
{"en": "For the eurozone’s southern periphery, however, today’s euro rate is very difficult to manage.", "zh": "但是，对欧元区南部外围国家来说，现在的欧元汇率是难以为继的。", "index": 6602}
{"en": "Whereas some German companies persuaded workers to accept wage cuts to help weather the financial crisis, wages across the southern periphery have been marching steadily upwards, even as productivity has remained stagnant.", "zh": "一些德国公司说服员工接受减薪以助抵御金融危机，但南欧外围国家的工资一直在稳步上升，甚至在生产率停滞不前时也照涨不误。", "index": 6603}
{"en": "But, because the overall value of the euro has to be a balance of the eurozone’s north and south, one can argue that 1.4 is within a reasonable range.", "zh": "但是，由于欧元的整体价值必须平衡南欧和北欧，因此，可以说1.4处于一个合理的区间内。", "index": 6604}
{"en": "Finally, investors might just believe that the eurozone leaders’ latest plan will work, even though the last dozen plans have failed.", "zh": "最后，投资者可能认为，尽管此前的诸多计划都以失败告终，但欧元区领导人的最新计划终将见效。", "index": 6605}
{"en": "Abraham Lincoln is credited with saying “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.”", "zh": "林肯有句名言 ： “ 你可以一直欺骗一些人，可也以一度欺骗所有人，但你不可能一直欺骗所有人。", "index": 6606}
{"en": "A comprehensive euro fix will surely arrive for some of the countries at some time, but not for all of the countries anytime soon.", "zh": "”完整的欧元修复计划会在某个时候在某些国家出现，这是肯定的，但不可能一下子在所有国家出现。", "index": 6607}
{"en": "So, yes, there are plenty of vaguely plausible reasons why the euro, despite its drawn-out crisis, has remained so firm against the dollar so far.", "zh": "因此，你可以找出大把雄辩理由证明为何欧元尽管存在旷日持久的危机，但到目前为止仍然维持着对美元的坚挺。", "index": 6608}
{"en": "But don’t count on a stable euro-dollar exchange rate – much less an even stronger euro – in the year ahead.", "zh": "但展望明年，别指望欧元-美元汇率能保持稳定，至于欧元走强的可能性，那就更渺茫了。", "index": 6609}
{"en": "A Green Alternative to Austerity?", "zh": "一个紧缩的绿色替代项?", "index": 6610}
{"en": "OXFORD – While austerity in Europe faces increasing social resistance, in principle it has the merit of simplicity.", "zh": "发自牛津 — — 虽然欧洲紧缩政策面临的社会阻力与日俱增，但至少该政策在原理上还具备简单直接的优点。", "index": 6611}
{"en": "As the debate on fiscal consolidation versus growth intensifies, it is clear that there is little agreement on how to kick-start the economy, beyond fielding broad stimulus packages.", "zh": "而随着巩固财政还是确保增长的辩论日趋激烈，显然除了实施大规模刺激政策之外，在如何启动经济方面并未形成多少共识。", "index": 6612}
{"en": "One idea is that environmental technology might feed a virtuous cycle of innovation and employment.", "zh": "一项理念随之产生，认为环保科技可以推动一个创新与就业的良性循环。", "index": 6613}
{"en": "To some, green growth evokes a countryside covered with windmills and urban roofs lined with solar panels.", "zh": "在某些人看来，绿色增长就意味着遍布乡村的风车以及城市屋顶上的太阳能电池板。", "index": 6614}
{"en": "But it is broader than that.", "zh": "但这其实只是冰山一角。", "index": 6615}
{"en": "For example, when Airbus moved from injection molding to 3D printing to produce the metal hinges for its airplanes’ doors, it reduced their weight by half, yielding phenomenal savings in material and associated fuel consumption over a lifetime of flying those hinges around the world.", "zh": "以空中客车公司生产的机舱门铰链为例，用三维喷射技术取代原有注射成型工艺可使铰链的重量减少一半，不但节省了大量生产材料，在这些铰链全球飞行的生命周期中也随之减少了许多燃料消耗。", "index": 6616}
{"en": "Still, it is easier to find exciting anecdotes than it is to show how they scale up to revitalizing an entire economy.", "zh": "但相对于演示这些技术如何扩大并使整个经济重焕生机，讲故事显然更加容易。", "index": 6617}
{"en": "Moreover, there is a great diversity of narratives on the green economy – and their proliferation is likely to grow.", "zh": "此外，对绿色经济的不同故事描述之间也大相径庭，而且这些分歧还有不断加大之势。", "index": 6618}
{"en": "This June, thousands of activists, policymakers, and business people will converge on Rio de Janeiro for the third giant United Nations Sustainable Development Conference (Rio+20), whose theme is the green economy.", "zh": "今年6月，数千名社会活动分子，政策制定者和商界人士都将齐聚里约热内卢，参加以绿色经济为主题的第三届联合国可持续发展会议（Rio+20 ） 。", "index": 6619}
{"en": "The conference will unleash new arguments about green jobs, growth, cost increases, cost reductions, changes in values, consumer choice – green this and green that.", "zh": "该会议也将释放出一批关于绿色职位、增长、成本增加、成本削减，价值观转变和消费者选择的新论点 — — 什么都离不开绿色。", "index": 6620}
{"en": "As a co-author of A New Growth Path for Europe, a report commissioned by the German government, I am guilty of contributing to this cacophony of complementary perspectives on green growth.", "zh": "作为德国政府主持撰写的报告《一条欧洲新增长路径》的合著者，笔者很抱歉在本已众说纷纭而又互为补充的绿色增长前景预测方面又增添了一把声音。", "index": 6621}
{"en": "The European Climate Foundation had already published its Roadmap 2050, A Practical Guide to a Prosperous, Low-Carbon Europe.", "zh": "欧洲气候基金会已经发表了《2050路线图，一个实现繁荣低碳欧洲的实用指南 》 。", "index": 6622}
{"en": "Since then, the UN Environment Program has released its Green Economy Report; McKinsey has written about the Resource Revolution; and the International Trade Unions Council has published Growing Green and Decent Jobs – to name but a few.", "zh": "自那以后，联合国环境计划发布了其《绿色经济报告 》 ； 麦肯锡撰写了《资源革命 》 ； 国际贸易联盟委员会也发表了名为《增加绿色且体面的工作》的报告。", "index": 6623}
{"en": "All take somewhat different approaches and offer different recommendations, making it hard for policymakers to see the forest through the trees.", "zh": "上述所有报告都采取了某种不同的研究路径并提出了各式各样的建议，也令政策制定者们如坠五里雾中。", "index": 6624}
{"en": "And, at the root of this multiplicity of perspectives lays the fact that economics struggles to explain how growth and innovation move an economy as a whole.", "zh": "而这些预测之所以五花八门，根源就在于经济学也无法完美解释增长和创新是如何令一个经济整体向前推进的。", "index": 6625}
{"en": "The macroeconomic models on which policymakers depend are solid tools in times of smooth and incremental evolution, but green growth is not about gradual change.", "zh": "在平稳且渐进式发展的时代，宏观经济模型是政策制定者们的可靠工具，但绿色增长却不属于渐进式变革的范畴。", "index": 6626}
{"en": "For example, the European Union’s goal of achieving an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 implies a complete overhaul of EU infrastructure in just a few decades.", "zh": "举个例子，欧盟在2050年实现温室气体减排80%的目标必然意味着在未来短短几十年内对联盟境内各类基础设施进行全面升级改造。", "index": 6627}
{"en": "Economists’ inability to model such rapid, radical change should not be taken as a condemnation of the discipline; it is simply a reflection of the state of our knowledge, and of the fact that the economy is really, really complicated.", "zh": "即便经济学家无法为这种迅速且激进的变革构建出模型，他们也不应该受到谴责，因为这只不过反映了我们当前的知识水平，以及经济学真的非常、非常复杂的现实。", "index": 6628}
{"en": "We simply do not yet have sufficiently precise insights into how all of its elements interact during times of far-reaching change, whether it be a financial crisis or a growth spurt.", "zh": "我们只不过尚未具备足够的深刻洞察力去理解在一场遥远的变革 — — 不管是一场金融危机还是爆发式增长 — — 中所有的因素将如何互动。", "index": 6629}
{"en": "Yet, the studies of green growth mentioned above all appear to provide such explanations.", "zh": "但上述提及的所有关于绿色增长的研究似乎都提供了这类解释。", "index": 6630}
{"en": "So, what do they really tell us?", "zh": "那么他们究竟告诉了我们些什么？", "index": 6631}
{"en": "In practice, each is limited to just one or two aspects of the economy, and describes how these interact.", "zh": "但实际操作中，每一项研究都仅仅局限于经济中的一个或两个方面，并对它们的互动方式进行了解释。", "index": 6632}
{"en": "Growing Green and Decent Jobs looks at the relationship between investment and jobs.", "zh": "《增加绿色且体面的工作》研究了投资与就业之间的关系。", "index": 6633}
{"en": "A New Growth Path for Europe examines the impact of expectations and learning-by-doing.", "zh": "《一条欧洲新增长路径》解释了预期以及边干边学所产生的影响。", "index": 6634}
{"en": "Roadmap 2050 focuses on greening the power system.", "zh": "《2050路线图》则把目光集中在能源系统的绿色化之上。", "index": 6635}
{"en": "The authors then make a leap of faith to derive conclusions about the economy as a whole.", "zh": "随后各报告的作者们都对作为一个整体的经济下了一个大胆的结论。", "index": 6636}
{"en": "But, while the value of these studies is in the light that they shed on the parts, the ensuing headlines invariably are about the whole, articulated in terms of GDP and jobs.", "zh": "但当这些研究的价值体现在对各部分的解释之上时，随后的核心却总是关于整体，而整体则是用GDP和就业来进行衡量的。", "index": 6637}
{"en": "Each of the studies describes a part of a green economy, but none can capture the whole – not because they are deficient, but because it is simply beyond our capability.", "zh": "每一项研究都解释了绿色经济的一部份，没有一个能涵盖整体 — — 这不是因为这些研究有缺陷，只不过因为这件事已经完全超出了我们的能力之外。", "index": 6638}
{"en": "That said, the fact that one cannot prove conclusively how green growth would work does not mean that we should give up on the idea.", "zh": "这说明，虽然人们尚未可以确凿证明绿色增长是有效的，但也不意味着我们应当放弃这个理念。", "index": 6639}
{"en": "We know from history that waves of innovation, from the steam engine to the information and communications revolution, have led to dramatic increases in economic growth.", "zh": "我们都从历史上中看到过那些革新的浪潮，从蒸汽引擎到信息与通信革命，都引发了激动人心的经济增长。", "index": 6640}
{"en": "We cannot prove that a wave of environmental innovation will have a similar effect, but the studies of the parts make such an outcome highly plausible.", "zh": "我们无法证明一股环境革新的浪潮会产生类似的效应，但针对不同部分的研究使得这样一个结果更有说服力。", "index": 6641}
{"en": "As humans, we are uniquely equipped to make decisions on the basis of ambiguous information – in fact, we do it all the time.", "zh": "作为人类，我们都拥有依据模糊信息做出决定的独特能力 — — 事实上我们无时无刻都在这样做。", "index": 6642}
{"en": "When we choose a career or a spouse in our private lives, or when a politician seizes an opportunity from a plethora of possibilities, the task at hand is always about making highly consequential decisions based on imperfect information.", "zh": "当我们选择一项事业或者配偶，或是一个政治家从一堆可能性中抓住一个机会的时候，当务之急往往都是基于不完整的信息来做出可能引发连串后果的决定。", "index": 6643}
{"en": "A big pile of green-growth reports demonstrates the plausibility of this path to recovery from an historic economic crisis.", "zh": "一大叠绿色发展报告都展示了这条把全世界从一个历史性的经济危机中实现复苏的路径的说服力。", "index": 6644}
{"en": "It is now up to us to realize its potential.", "zh": "而如今也是我们将其潜力变成现实的时候了。", "index": 6645}
{"en": "Green growth offers a realistic alternative to the faltering austerity approach to overcoming the current economic crisis.", "zh": "相对于当前步履蹒跚的经济危机紧缩应对政策，绿色增长提供了一个现实的替代选项。", "index": 6646}
{"en": "Policymakers should incorporate this thinking into the “beyond austerity” narrative that is taking shape in a growing number of key EU member states.", "zh": "而政策制定者们也应当把这一理念合并到当前在各欧盟主要成员国中日渐成形的“超越紧缩”述事中去。", "index": 6647}
{"en": "Ethics and Agriculture", "zh": "伦理与农业", "index": 6648}
{"en": "MELBOURNE – Should rich countries – or investors based there – be buying agricultural land in developing countries?", "zh": "墨尔本—发达国家（或那里的投资者）应该购买发展中国家的农地吗？", "index": 6649}
{"en": "That question is raised in Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South, a report issued last year by the Land Matrix Partnership, a consortium of European research institutes and nongovernmental organizations.", "zh": "这是欧洲研究机构和非政府组织联合体土地矩阵合伙组织（Land Matrix Partnership）去年题为《南半球跨国农用土地交易 》 （ Transnational Land Deals for Agriculture in the Global South）的报告中提出的问题。", "index": 6650}
{"en": "The report shows that since 2000, investors or state bodies in rich or emerging countries have bought more than 83 million hectares (more than 200 million acres) of agricultural land in poorer developing countries.", "zh": "报告显示，自2000年以来，发达或新兴国家的投资者或国家机构在更不发达国家购买了8 300多万公顷（2亿多英亩）的农地。", "index": 6651}
{"en": "This amounts to 1.7% of the world’s agricultural land.", "zh": "这相当于世界农地面积的1.7 % 。", "index": 6652}
{"en": "Most of these purchases have been made in Africa, with two-thirds taking place in countries where hunger is widespread and institutions for establishing formal land ownership are often weak.", "zh": "大部分农地买卖发生在非洲，其中三分之二发生在饥饿蔓延、缺少正式土地所有权框架的国家。", "index": 6653}
{"en": "The purchases in Africa alone amount to an area of agricultural land the size of Kenya.", "zh": "非洲的农地买卖量相当于肯尼亚的总面积。", "index": 6654}
{"en": "It has been claimed that foreign investors are purchasing land that has been left idle; thus, by bringing it into production, the purchases are increasing the availability of food overall.", "zh": "外国投资者宣称自己购买的是闲置土地，因此，通过让这些土地形成产出，土地买卖增加了粮食供应量。", "index": 6655}
{"en": "But the Land Matrix Partnership report found that this is not the case: roughly 45% of the purchases involved existing croplands, and almost a third of the purchased land was forested, indicating that its development may pose risks for biodiversity.", "zh": "但土地矩阵合伙组织的报告发现并非如此：约45%的土地买卖对象是已存在的耕地，几乎三分之一的交易土地是林地，这表明开发可能威胁生物多样性。", "index": 6656}
{"en": "The investments are both private and public (for example, by state-owned entities) and come from three different groups of countries: emerging economies like China, India, Brazil, South Africa, Malaysia, and South Korea; oil-rich Gulf states; and wealthy developed economies like the United States and several European countries.", "zh": "这类投资既有私人部门，也有公共部门（如国有实体 ） ， 主要购买者是三类国家：中国、印度、巴西、南非、马来西亚和韩国等新兴经济体；波斯湾富油国；以及美国和不少欧洲国家等富有的发达国家。", "index": 6657}
{"en": "On average, per capita income in the countries that are the source of these investments is four times higher than in the target countries.", "zh": "平均而言，投资来源国的人均收入比投资目标国高出四倍。", "index": 6658}
{"en": "Most of the investments are aimed at producing food or other crops for export from the countries in which the land is acquired, for the obvious reason that richer countries can pay more for the output.", "zh": "大部分投资的目的是在土地收购国生产粮食和其他作物并用于出口，其中的原因显而易见 — — 较发达国家对土地产出的出价更高。", "index": 6659}
{"en": "More than 40% of such projects aim to export food to the source country – suggesting that food security is a major reason for buying the land.", "zh": "40%以上的投资目的是向投资来源国出口粮食 — — 这表明粮食安全是购买土地的主要原因。", "index": 6660}
{"en": "Oxfam International calls some of these deals “land grabs.”", "zh": "国际乐施会（Oxfam International）将部分交易称为“抢地 ” 。", "index": 6661}
{"en": "Its own report, Our Land, Our Lives,indicates that, since 2008, communities affected by World Bank projects have brought 21 formal complaints alleging violations of their land rights.", "zh": "其报告《我们的土地，我们的生命 》 （ Our Land, Our Lives）显示，自2008年以来，受世界银行项目影响的社会共提出了21次指责破坏其土地权利的正式投诉。", "index": 6662}
{"en": "Oxfam, drawing attention to large-scale land acquisitions that have entailed direct rights violations, has called on the Bank to freeze investments in land purchases until it can set standards ensuring that local communities are informed of them in advance, with the option of refusing them.", "zh": "为了吸引人们对存在直接侵权现象的大规模土地收购的关注，乐施会呼吁世界银行冻结土地买卖投资，直到保证当地社会能提前获得告知并选择是否拒绝的标准出台。", "index": 6663}
{"en": "Oxfam also wants the Bank to ensure that these land deals do not undermine either local or national food security.", "zh": "乐施会还呼吁世界银行保证这些土地交易不能破坏当地和国家粮食安全。", "index": 6664}
{"en": "In response, the World Bank agreed that there are instances of abuse in land acquisition, particularly in developing countries in which governance is weak, and said that it supported more transparent and inclusive participation.", "zh": "作为回应，世界银行同意土地收购过程中存在不端行为，特别是在治理薄弱的发展中国家，并表示它支持更透明、更包容的参与。", "index": 6665}
{"en": "At the same time, it pointed to the need to increase food production to feed the extra two billion people expected to be alive in 2050, and suggested that more investment in agriculture in developing countries is required to improve productivity.", "zh": "与此同时，世界银行也指出，增加粮食产量以喂饱2050年的20亿预计新增人口是十分必要的，并暗示要改善生产率，就必须增加发展中国家的农业投资。", "index": 6666}
{"en": "The Bank rejected the idea of a moratorium on its own work with investors in agriculture, arguing that this would target precisely those who are most likely to do the right thing.", "zh": "世界银行拒绝中止其与农业投资者的合作，表示这类合作将明确定位于最有可能把事情作对的人和组织。", "index": 6667}
{"en": "One may ask whether transparency and the requirement that local landholders consent to a sale is enough to protect people living in poverty.", "zh": "你也许会问，有了透明度以及必须有当地地主愿意出售的要求就足以保护生活在贫困中的呃人们了吗？", "index": 6668}
{"en": "Supporters of free markets will argue that if local landowners wish to sell their land, that is their choice to make.", "zh": "自由市场的支持者会说，如果当地地主愿意出售他们的土地，那么这就是他们的自主选择。", "index": 6669}
{"en": "But, given the pressures of poverty and the lure of cash, what does it take for people to be able to make a genuinely free and informed choice about selling something as significant as a right to land?", "zh": "但是，在贫困的压力和现金的诱惑下，是什么让人们能够在信息充分的情况下真正自由地做出出售重要如土地的决策？", "index": 6670}
{"en": "After all, we do not allow poor people to sell their kidneys to the highest bidder.", "zh": "毕竟，我们不能允许穷人向出价最高者出售肾脏。", "index": 6671}
{"en": "Of course, hardline supporters of free markets will say that we should.", "zh": "当然，一根筋的自由市场支持者会说我们应该允许。", "index": 6672}
{"en": "But, at the very least, it needs to be explained why people should be prohibited from selling kidneys, but not from selling the land that grows their food.", "zh": "但是，无论如何，必须解释人们为什么应该被禁止出售肾脏而可以出售长出粮食的土地。", "index": 6673}
{"en": "Most people can live without one kidney.", "zh": "大部分人都可以在失去一个肾脏的情况下活着。", "index": 6674}
{"en": "No one can live without food.", "zh": "但没人可以在没有粮食的情况下活着。", "index": 6675}
{"en": "Why does the purchase of body parts give rise to international condemnation, while the purchase of agricultural land does not – even when it involves evicting local landholders and producing food for export to rich countries instead of for local consumption?", "zh": "为什么买卖人体器官会引发国际社会的谴责，而买卖农地则否 — — 即使后者包括驱逐当地地主以及为发达国家而不是当地消费者生产供出口的粮食？", "index": 6676}
{"en": "The World Bank may indeed be more concerned about local landholders’ rights than other foreign investors are.", "zh": "事实上，与其他外国投资者相比，世界银行也许能够更关心当地地主的权利。", "index": 6677}
{"en": "If so, the 21 complaints made against Bank projects are most likely the visible tip of a vast iceberg of violations of land rights by foreign investors in agricultural projects in developing countries – with the others remaining invisible because victims have no access to any complaint procedure.", "zh": "果真如此的话，21份针对世界银行项目的投诉极有可能只是外国投资者在发展中国家农业项目上大规模侵犯土地权利状况的冰山一角，有大量侵权案例我们不曾看到，因为受害者投诉无门。", "index": 6678}
{"en": "One such case belatedly came to the attention of the United Nations Human Rights Committee.", "zh": "一宗此类案件终于引起了联合国人权委员会的注意。", "index": 6679}
{"en": "In November, the Committee concluded that Germany had failed to police the Neumann Kaffee Gruppe regarding its complicity in the forced eviction of several villages in Uganda to make way for a large coffee plantation.", "zh": "11月，该委员会认定德国在诺依曼咖啡集团（Neumann Kaffee Gruppe）串谋强迫驱赶乌干达几个村庄村民建立大规模咖啡种植园的问题上不作为。", "index": 6680}
{"en": "But the evictions took place in 2001, and the villagers are still living in extreme poverty.", "zh": "但驱赶行为发生在2001年，被驱赶的村民至今仍生活在极端贫困中，他们没有得到侵权补偿，不管是乌干达还是德国。", "index": 6681}
{"en": "They found no remedy, in either Uganda or Germany, for the violation of rights that, according to the Committee, they possess under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, to which Germany is a signatory.", "zh": "他们的土地权利受《民事和政治权利国际公约 》 （ International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights）保护，而德国是签约国之一。", "index": 6682}
{"en": "Are we to believe that landholders fare better with Chinese or Saudi investors?", "zh": "我们可以指望当地地主从中国或沙特投资者手中获得更好的补偿吗？", "index": 6683}
{"en": "The Rise of the Food Barons", "zh": "食品大亨的崛起", "index": 6684}
{"en": "BERLIN – The industrial-agriculture sector has long faced criticism for practices that contribute to climate change, environmental destruction, and rural poverty.", "zh": "柏林—长期以来，工业农业（industrial-agriculture sector）一直被人诟病加剧了气候变化、环境破坏和农村贫困。", "index": 6685}
{"en": "And yet the sector has taken virtually no steps to improve quality and sustainability, or to promote social justice.", "zh": "但给行业几乎没有采取任何措施改善质量和可持续性，或促进社会公平。", "index": 6686}
{"en": "This is not surprising. Although there are more than 570 million farmers and seven billion consumers worldwide, just a handful of companies control the global industrial-agriculture value chain – from field to shop counter.", "zh": "这不足为奇，全世界有超过5.7亿农民和七十亿消费者，但从田间到店头，全球工业农业的价值链控制在一小撮公司手中。", "index": 6687}
{"en": "Given the high profits and vast political power of these companies, changes to the status quo are not in their interest.", "zh": "这些公司利润丰厚，炙手可热，改变现状可不符合它们的利益。", "index": 6688}
{"en": "Moreover, market concentration in the agriculture sector is on the rise, owing to increased demand for the agricultural raw materials needed in food, animal feed, and energy production.", "zh": "此外，拜粮食、饲料和能源生产的农业原材料需求增长所赐，农业的市场集中度也在升高。", "index": 6689}
{"en": "As the middle class in southern countries has grown, its members’ consumption and nutritional habits have changed, boosting global demand for processed foods – and setting off a scramble for market power among multinational agricultural, chemical, and food corporations.", "zh": "随着南方国家中产阶级的崛起，他们的消费和营养习惯也发生了改变，从而刺激了对加工食品的需求，也掀起了一场跨国农业、化工和食品公司争夺市场大权的战争。", "index": 6690}
{"en": "The biggest players in these sectors have been buying out their smaller competitors for years.", "zh": "多年来，这些行业中的最大牌公司一直在收购规模较小的竞争对手。", "index": 6691}
{"en": "But now they are also buying out one another, often with financing provided by investors from completely different sectors.", "zh": "但如今，它们同时也在互相收购，融资常常来自完全不同行业的投资者。", "index": 6692}
{"en": "Consider the seed and agrochemical sector, where Bayer, the second-largest pesticide producer in the world, is in the process of acquiring Monsanto, the largest seed producer, for €66 billion ($74 billion).", "zh": "以种子和农化行业为例，全球第二大杀虫剂生产商拜耳公司（Bayer）正在收购第一大种子生产商孟山都公司（Monsanto ） ， 作价660欧元。", "index": 6693}
{"en": "If the United States and the European Union approve the deal, as seems likely, just three conglomerates – Bayer-Monsanto, Dow-DuPont and ChemChina-Syngenta – will control over 60% of the global seed and agrochemical market.", "zh": "如果美国和欧盟批准这笔交易（目前看来很有可能 ） ， 那么三家企业集团 — — 拜耳-孟山都、陶氏-杜邦（Dow-DuPont）和中化-先正达（ChemChina-Syngenta）将控制全球60%以上的种子和农化市场。", "index": 6694}
{"en": "“Baysanto” alone would be the proprietor of almost every genetically modified plant on the planet.", "zh": "光是“拜山都”一家，就几乎囊括了全世界所有的转基因作物。", "index": 6695}
{"en": "With other large mergers also being announced, the global agriculture market at the end of 2017 could look very different than it did at the beginning.", "zh": "随着其他大型收购案的不断宣布，到2017年底，全球农业市场将与年初发生天翻地覆的变化。", "index": 6696}
{"en": "Each of the three major conglomerates will be closer to its goal of achieving domination of the seed and pesticide markets – at which point they will be able to dictate food products, prices, and quality worldwide.", "zh": "三大企业集团都将更加接近它们实现主宰种子和杀虫剂市场的目标 — — 到时候它们就可以随心所欲地控制全球食品的生产、价格和质量了。", "index": 6697}
{"en": "The agrotechnical sector is experiencing some of the same changes as the seed sector.", "zh": "农业技术行业正在经历与种子行业类似的变化。", "index": 6698}
{"en": "The five largest corporations account for 65% of the market, with Deere & Company, the owner of the John Deere brand, in the lead.", "zh": "五家最大的公司控制了65%的市场，约翰迪尔（John Deere）商标所有人迪尔公司在这方面一马当先。", "index": 6699}
{"en": "In 2015, Deere & Company reported $29 billion in sales, surpassing the $25 billion that Monsanto and Bayer made selling seeds and pesticides.", "zh": "2015年，迪尔公司披露的销售额为290亿美元，超过了卖种子和杀虫剂的孟山都和拜耳的250亿美元销售额。", "index": 6700}
{"en": "The most promising new opportunity for food corporations today lies in the digitization of agriculture.", "zh": "如今，食品公司最憧憬的新机会在于农业数字化。", "index": 6701}
{"en": "This process is still in its early stages, but it is gathering momentum, and eventually it will cover all areas of production.", "zh": "农业数字化过程仍处于初级阶段，但正在起势，最终将涵盖所有产品领域。", "index": 6702}
{"en": "Soon enough, drones will take over the task of spraying pesticides; livestock will be equipped with sensors to track milk quantities, movement patterns, and feed rations; tractors will be controlled by GPS; and app-controlled sowing machines will assess soil quality to determine the optimal distance between rows and plants.", "zh": "过不了多久，无人机全面接管喷洒杀虫剂的任务；牲畜将配备传感器追踪产奶量、运动轨迹和饲料配给；拖拉机将通过全球定位系统控制；而通过手机应用控制的播种机将评估土壤质量决定作物的最优间距。", "index": 6703}
{"en": "To maximize the benefits of these new technologies, the companies that already dominate the value chain have begun cooperating with one another.", "zh": "为了实现新技术效益最大化，已经占据价值链主导地位的公司早已开始彼此合作。", "index": 6704}
{"en": "The John Deeres and Monsantos have now joined forces.", "zh": "约翰迪尔们和孟山都们已经结成了联盟。", "index": 6705}
{"en": "The confluence of soil and weather “big data,” new agrotechnologies, genetically modified seeds, and new developments in agrochemistry will help these companies save money, protect natural resources, and maximize crop yields worldwide.", "zh": "土壤和天气“大数据”的聚合、新农业技术、转基因种子和农化新发展趋势将帮助这些公司节省成本、保护自然资源、实现全球作物收成最大化。", "index": 6706}
{"en": "But while this possible future bodes well for some of the world’s largest companies, it leaves the environmental and social problems associated with industrialized agriculture unsolved.", "zh": "但这样的未来可能固然有利于少数世界性大公司，并不能解决工业化农业遗留下来的相关环境和社会问题。", "index": 6707}
{"en": "Most farmers, particularly in the global South, will never be able to afford expensive digital-age machinery.", "zh": "大部分农民，特别是全球南方地区的农民，永远买不起昂贵的数字时代机器。", "index": 6708}
{"en": "The maxim “grow or go” will be replaced with “digitize or disappear.”", "zh": "“要么成长，要么离开”的格言将变成“要么数字化，要么消失 ” 。", "index": 6709}
{"en": "The ETC Group, an American non-governmental organization, has already outlined a future scenario in which the major agrotechnology corporations move upstream and absorb the seed and pesticide producers.", "zh": "在美国非政府组织ETC集团所列出的未来情景中，农业技术大公司将向上游移动，吸收种子和杀虫剂生产商。", "index": 6710}
{"en": "At that point, just a few companies will determine everything that we eat.", "zh": "到那时，少数几家公司就能决定我们吃的一切。", "index": 6711}
{"en": "Indeed, the same market-concentration problem applies to other links in the value chain, such as agricultural traders and supermarkets.", "zh": "事实上，相同的市场集中问题在价值链的其他环节也存在，比如农业贸易商和超级市场。", "index": 6712}
{"en": "And even though food processing is not yet consolidated on a global scale, it is still dominated at the regional level by companies such as Unilever, Danone, Mondelez, and Nestlé.", "zh": "而尽管食品加工尚未出现全球规模的整合，但在地区层面上，联合利华、达能、蒙德利兹（Mondelez）和雀巢的公司已经实现了主宰。", "index": 6713}
{"en": "These companies make money when fresh or semi-processed food is replaced by highly processed convenience foods such as frozen pizza, canned soup, and ready-made meals.", "zh": "随着新鲜和半加工食品被速冻披萨、汤罐头和即食肉制品等深加工食品所取代，这些公司也赚了个盆满钵满。", "index": 6714}
{"en": "While lucrative, this business model is closely linked to obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases.", "zh": "尽管利润丰厚，但这一商业模式很容易导致肥胖、糖尿病和其他慢性疾病。", "index": 6715}
{"en": "Worse, food corporations are also profiting from the proliferation of illnesses for which they are partly responsible, by marketing “healthy” processed foods enriched with protein, vitamins, probiotics, and omega-3 fatty acids.", "zh": "更糟糕的是，食品公司也因为它们负有部分责任的疾病扩散中而获利，因为它们推广的“健康”加工食品中富含蛋白质、维生素、益生菌欧米茄-3脂肪酸。", "index": 6716}
{"en": "Meanwhile, corporations are amassing market power at the expense of those at the bottom of the value chain: farmers and workers.", "zh": "与此同时，这些公司赢得市场权力以价值链底层 — — 农民和工人的牺牲为代价。", "index": 6717}
{"en": "International Labor Organization standards guarantee all workers the right to organize, and they prohibit forced and child labor and proscribe race and gender discrimination.", "zh": "国际劳工组织规则保障所有工人都有组织工会的权利，也禁止强迫劳动和童工以及种族和性别歧视。", "index": 6718}
{"en": "But labor-law violations have become the norm, because efforts to enforce ILO rules are often quashed, while trade union members are routinely threatened, fired, and even murdered.", "zh": "但违反劳动法的情况司空见惯，因为国际劳工组织规则的执行力往往很弱，而工会成员常常受到威胁、解雇甚至谋杀。", "index": 6719}
{"en": "In this hostile climate, minimum-wage, overtime-pay, and workplace-safety standards are openly neglected.", "zh": "在如此不利的环境下，最低工资、加班费和工作场所安全标准被公然无视。", "index": 6720}
{"en": "And women, in particular, are at a disadvantage, because they are paid less than their male counterparts and often must settle for seasonal or temporary jobs.", "zh": "妇女尤其不利，因为她们的薪酬低于男性同事，从事的也常常是季节性或临时性工作。", "index": 6721}
{"en": "Today, half of the world’s 800 million starving people are small farmers and workers connected to the agricultural sector.", "zh": "如今，全世界8亿吃不饱饭的人中有一半是小农和农业相关工人。", "index": 6722}
{"en": "Their lot will hardly improve if the few companies already dominating that sector become even more powerful.", "zh": "如果极少数已经成为行业主宰的公司继续获得更大的权力，他们的境况将难以改善。", "index": 6723}
{"en": "How to Feed the World", "zh": "如何养活世界", "index": 6724}
{"en": "PRAGUE – Hunger has wracked humanity since time immemorial.", "zh": "布拉格—从远古时代开始，饥饿一直困扰着人类。", "index": 6725}
{"en": "Nearly every major society has been shaped by famine; one estimate suggests that China suffered drought or flood-induced starvation in at least one province almost every year from 108 BC to 1911.", "zh": "几乎所有主要社会都受到饥荒影响；有人估算，从公元前108年到公园1911年间，每一年中国都至少有一个省出现旱灾或洪灾导致饥荒的情况。", "index": 6726}
{"en": "Yet the struggle against hunger is a battle that humanity could finally win.", "zh": "但与饥饿的斗争是一场人类最终能够取得胜利的斗争。", "index": 6727}
{"en": "More cereals were produced annually in the last quarter of the twentieth century than in any preceding period, and more grain will be harvested this year than at any time in history.", "zh": "二十世纪最后四分之一的谷物年产量要比此前任何一个时期都要高，而今年的谷物产量更是要高于历史上任何一年。", "index": 6728}
{"en": "Since 1992, the number of hungry people worldwide has plummeted by more than 200 million, even as the human population grew by nearly two billion.", "zh": "自1992年以来，全球饥民数量减少了两亿多，尽管人口数量增加了近二十亿。", "index": 6729}
{"en": "But enormous challenges remain.", "zh": "但仍有诸多挑战。", "index": 6730}
{"en": "Affordable, nutritious food is one of people’s top priorities everywhere, and one in nine people still do not get enough food to be healthy.", "zh": "平价营养食物是所有人类最要紧的事，而有九分之一的人类仍然无法获得足够的食物保持健康。", "index": 6731}
{"en": "With today’s population of 7.3 billion expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050, food demand will increase accordingly.", "zh": "今天的73亿人口预计到2030年将变为85亿，到2050年将变为97亿，食物需求也将相应增长。", "index": 6732}
{"en": "Along with more mouths to feed, stresses on food supplies will include conflicts, economic volatility, extreme weather events, and climate change.", "zh": "随着有更多的肚子需要填饱，食物供给的压力将来自冲突、经济动荡、极端天气事件、气候变化等。", "index": 6733}
{"en": "Increases in agricultural productivity, owing to improvements in seeds, new fertilizers and pesticides, improved credit access, and technological breakthroughs, have been a key driver in reducing hunger.", "zh": "拜种子改良、新化肥和杀虫剂、信用渠道畅通化以及技术突破所赐，农业生产率获得了极大的提高，并成为减少饥饿的主要推动力量。", "index": 6734}
{"en": "Between 1930 and 2000, agricultural output in the United States quadrupled, with productivity growth outstripping that of manufacturing.", "zh": "从1930年到2000年，美国农业产出翻了两番，农业生产率增长比制造业更快。", "index": 6735}
{"en": "Developing countries have begun sharing in these gains: responsible for next-to-none of the world’s fertilizer consumption in 1960, by 2000 they used more than industrialized countries.", "zh": "发展中国家也开始分享这些收益：1960年，它们的化肥消费占比可以忽略不计，到2000年，它们的化肥使用量已经超过了工业化国家。", "index": 6736}
{"en": "The World Bank has found that productivity growth in agriculture can be up to four times more effective in reducing poverty than growth from other sectors.", "zh": "世界银行发现，农业生产率增长���减少贫困的作用是其他部门生产率增长的四倍。", "index": 6737}
{"en": "So how do we keep up this progress?", "zh": "那么，我们如何保持这一势头？", "index": 6738}
{"en": "Investment in research and development is vital.", "zh": "研究和开发投资至关重要。", "index": 6739}
{"en": "According to research conducted for Copenhagen Consensus, which I direct, investing an extra $88 billion in agricultural R&D over the next 15 years would increase yields by an additional 0.4 percentage points each year, which could save 79 million people from hunger and prevent five million cases of child malnourishment.", "zh": "据由我领导的哥本哈根共识中心所做的研究，未来十五年在农业研发上增加880亿美元投资每年能够多提高0.4个百分点的产量增长，让7,900万人摆脱贫困，让五百万儿童免于营养不良。", "index": 6740}
{"en": "Achieving these targets would be worth nearly $3 trillion in social good, implying an enormous return of $34 for every dollar spent.", "zh": "实现这些目标相当于实现3万亿美元的社会公益，即每一美元支出带来34美元的巨额回报。", "index": 6741}
{"en": "Scientific breakthroughs also play a key role in fighting specific nutritional challenges such as vitamin A deficiency, the leading cause of preventable childhood blindness.", "zh": "科学突破也在战胜具体的营养挑战方面起着关键作用，比如维生素A缺乏症，它是引起可预防儿童失明的主要原因。", "index": 6742}
{"en": "Robert Mwanga was awarded this year’s World Food Prize for inspiring work that resulted in the large-scale replacement of white sweet potato (with scant Vitamin A content) by a vitamin A-rich alternative in the diets of Uganda’s rural poor.", "zh": "罗伯特·姆万加（Robert Mwanga）因为在用富含维生素A的品种大量替换乌干达农村穷人日常实用的甘白薯（维生素A含量很低）方面所取得的鼓舞人心的工作而被授予世界粮食奖。", "index": 6743}
{"en": "Another way to increase agricultural productivity is through labor.", "zh": "另一个增加农业生产率的方法是通过劳动力。", "index": 6744}
{"en": "When Copenhagen Consensus researchers examined responses to global warming in Bangladesh, they found that increasing agricultural labor productivity “is the only way to increase the resilience of Bangladesh to climate change and to meet long-term development goals.”", "zh": "哥本哈根共识中心研究者在考察孟加拉国应对全球变暖的方法时发现，增加农业劳动力生产率“是加强孟加拉国面对气候变化的恢复力、实现长期发展目标的唯一方法。", "index": 6745}
{"en": "Investing around $9,000 per worker over two decades could boost agricultural productivity by 10%.", "zh": "”在二十年的时间里对每位工人投资大约9,000美元能够让农业生产率提高10 % 。", "index": 6746}
{"en": "Bangladesh is an instructive case, because it is susceptible to flooding and the effects of climate change, and its agricultural productivity lags behind other developing and middle-income countries.", "zh": "孟加拉国的例子很有说明意义，因为它极易受到洪水和气候变化影响，而其农业生产率也落后于其他发展中和中等收入国家。", "index": 6747}
{"en": "Unsurprisingly, the Bangladeshi prime minister’s office is striving to lead in global innovation, sustaining an agriculture innovation lab that shares best practices and ideas.", "zh": "毫不奇怪，孟加拉国总理办公室正致力于引领全球创新，建立了一座共享最佳实践和思想的农业创新实验室。", "index": 6748}
{"en": "Copenhagen Consensus has worked with the world’s largest NGO, BRAC, to find out the policy wishes of people living in rural Bangladesh, including the “ultra-poor” with whom BRAC works closely.", "zh": "哥本哈根共识中心与全球最大的非政府组织BRAC合作了解孟加拉国农村地区人口 — — 包括BRAC共组人员与之近距离共事的“极端贫困”人口 — — 想要什么政策。", "index": 6749}
{"en": "These laborers, housewives, and others, some of whom live on the equivalent of $0.60-0.70 or less a day, are seldom given a place at the table to discuss policy.", "zh": "这些劳动者、家庭主妇和其他人员每天的生活费不超过0.6—0.7美元，他们的声音很少在政策讨论拥有一席之地。", "index": 6750}
{"en": "Across nine rural forums in far-flung parts of the country, the participants overwhelmingly spoke with one voice, calling for the same policy priority: increased agricultural productivity.", "zh": "在孟加拉国偏远地区的九个论坛上，参与者一边倒地发出一个声音，提出了同一个政策重点要求：提高农业生产率。", "index": 6751}
{"en": "“Everyone knows Rangpur has a Monga problem,” said a local from Chandpara in the Rangpur division, using the Bengali term for the annual cyclical phenomenon of seasonal hunger.", "zh": "“众所周知，朗布尔（Rangpur）地区存在孟加（monga）问题 ” ， 朗布尔省钱德帕拉（Chandpara）的一位当地人如是说 ， “ 孟加”是孟加拉语，指年复一年发生的季节性饥饿现象。", "index": 6752}
{"en": "“We cannot feed our people two times a day – we need to increase our agricultural productivity.”", "zh": "“我们的人一天吃不上两顿饭 — — 我们需要提高农业生产率。 ”", "index": 6753}
{"en": "A Mukimabad villager had the same vision for Bangladesh: “We need crops and seeds which are not vulnerable to salinity and flood so that we do not have to die from food shortages.”", "zh": "一位木吉玛巴德（Mukimabad）村民持有同样观点 ： “ 我们需要抗盐碱和洪水的庄稼和种子，这样我们才不会死于食物短缺。 ”", "index": 6754}
{"en": "Humanity’s fight against hunger can be won.", "zh": "人类可以打赢与饥饿的战争。", "index": 6755}
{"en": "Great progress has been made, but the world needs more agricultural R&D and higher productivity.", "zh": "人类已经取得了巨大的进步，但世界需要更多农业研发和更高的生产率。", "index": 6756}
{"en": "As a rural villager from Deukhola, near the Brahmaputra River in remote northern Bangladesh, starkly put it: “Our survival depends on it.”", "zh": "孟加拉国北部偏远地区布拉马普特拉河附近的德克霍拉（Deukhola）的一位农民尖锐地指出 ， “ 我们的生存就系于此。", "index": 6757}
{"en": "We would do well to listen.", "zh": "”聆听能让我们做得更好。", "index": 6758}
{"en": "An Arab Marshall Plan", "zh": "阿拉伯马歇尔计划", "index": 6759}
{"en": "OXFORD – The wave of revolts that swept across the Arab world two years ago were fueled by demands for freedom, bread, and social justice.", "zh": "牛津—两年前席卷阿拉伯世界的革命风潮的推动力来自自由、面包和社会公正的要求。", "index": 6760}
{"en": "But, although the revolutions toppled dictators and transformed societies, these core objectives remain as distant as ever.", "zh": "但是，尽管革命颠覆了独裁者、改变了社会，但这些核心目标扔像从前一样遥远。", "index": 6761}
{"en": "In fact, the economic challenges facing the Arab Spring countries have become even more pressing, weighing heavily on these countries’ political prospects.", "zh": "事实上，阿拉伯之春国家面临的经济挑战甚至变得更加紧迫了，严重地影响着这些国家的政治前景。", "index": 6762}
{"en": "Unemployment has nearly doubled in Tunisia and Egypt, and foreign direct investment has dried up across the Arab world.", "zh": "突尼斯和埃及的失业率几近翻番，整个阿拉伯世界的外国直接投资几乎枯竭。", "index": 6763}
{"en": "Tourism revenues, while resilient, are declining, and fiscal challenges remain considerable.", "zh": "旅游收入随虽然坚挺，但也在下降，财政挑战也依然严峻。", "index": 6764}
{"en": "But the economic urgency is not reflected in the policy response, which has been painfully slow or non-existent.", "zh": "但经济紧迫性并未反映在缓慢（如果不是没有的话）的政策反应中。", "index": 6765}
{"en": "For example, Egypt’s fiscal deficit will exceed 11% of GDP this year.", "zh": "比如，埃及今年的财政赤字将超过GDP的11 % 。", "index": 6766}
{"en": "But the country’s leaders have been stalling on the terms of a much-needed International Monetary Fund loan.", "zh": "但该国领导人还在急需的IMF贷款条件上扯皮。", "index": 6767}
{"en": "The government’s reduction of fuel subsidies last year was not followed by additional reforms, and the required tax increase was delayed soon after President Mohamed Morsi announced it.", "zh": "政府在去年削减了燃料补贴，但并未增加进一步的改革，总统穆尔西在宣布实施必要的增税后马上把这一措施推迟了。", "index": 6768}
{"en": "Almost all political stakeholders in Egypt, as in the other Arab countries in transition, recognize the need for economic reform.", "zh": "埃及几乎所有的政治相关利益者（其他阿拉伯过渡国家也一样）都知道经济改革的必要性。", "index": 6769}
{"en": "But neither citizens nor policymakers appear willing to bear its social and political costs.", "zh": "但人民和决策者都不希望承担改革的社会和政治成本。", "index": 6770}
{"en": "In a charged and uncertain political climate, in which new crises erupt on a daily basis, it is unsurprising that economic reform has been postponed repeatedly.", "zh": "在敏感而不确定的政治气候下 — — 几乎天天爆发新危机 — — 经济改革一再中止并不令人奇怪。", "index": 6771}
{"en": "Politicians know that macroeconomic stabilization and social cohesion can be irreconcilable in the short run.", "zh": "政客们明白，宏观经济稳定和社会团结在短期是不可调和的。", "index": 6772}
{"en": "Slashing food and energy subsidies in order to reduce fiscal strain is unlikely to win favor in a country like Egypt, where 40% of per capita income is allocated to food.", "zh": "削减食品和能源补贴以降低财政负担不可能让你在埃及赢得支持，因为埃及人均收入的四成用于食品。", "index": 6773}
{"en": "Politics is thus constraining efforts to strengthen public finances.", "zh": "因此，政治成了加强财政健康的约束。", "index": 6774}
{"en": "At the same time, narrow IMF prescriptions threaten to exacerbate political instability, with citizens no longer afraid to take to the streets to demonstrate their dissatisfaction.", "zh": "与此同时，狭隘的IMF药方有放大政治动荡的可能，人民已不再惮于走上街头表达自己的不满。", "index": 6775}
{"en": "The current impasse on economic reform highlights a larger point: subsidy and tax regimes cannot be reformed without first redefining the underlying social contract, which has long exchanged welfare distribution for political acquiescence.", "zh": "近期的经济改革僵局凸显出一个更大的问题：欲改革补贴和税收制度，必先重新规定社会契约。 长期以来，社会契约的内容是用财富分配换取政治顺从。", "index": 6776}
{"en": "But such a move is far too risky for an individual politician, or even a single country, at a time of economic uncertainty and high unemployment.", "zh": "但是，在经济不确定性和失业高企的时期，这样一场运动对政治家个人甚至个别国家来说风险太大。", "index": 6777}
{"en": "In order to create the political space needed for economic reform, Arab leaders must underwrite a regional growth pact – a Marshall Plan of sorts – that would facilitate major new investments aimed at reviving economic activity.", "zh": "为了创造经济改革所需要的政治空间，阿拉伯领导人必须抛出地区增长契约 — — 类似于马歇尔计划 — — 以刺激旨在重振经济活动的投资。", "index": 6778}
{"en": "It is much easier to reform subsidy programs when the economy is expanding.", "zh": "一旦经济开始扩张，改革补贴计划就会容易得多。", "index": 6779}
{"en": "Moreover, building competitive markets is essential to ensuring sustainable GDP growth.", "zh": "此外，建设竞争市场是确保可持续GDP增长的关键。", "index": 6780}
{"en": "To this end, regional trade barriers, which are more pervasive in the Arab world than even in Sub-Saharan Africa, must be dismantled.", "zh": "在这方面，地区贸易壁垒 — — 阿拉伯世界的这个问题甚至比撒哈拉以南非洲还要普遍 — — 必须打破。", "index": 6781}
{"en": "By agreeing to the pact, Arab countries would commit to reforming their subsidy systems and to reducing restrictions on cross-border economic exchange.", "zh": "通过同意这一契约，阿拉伯国家将能致力于改革补贴制度、减少跨国经济往来限制。", "index": 6782}
{"en": "The regional dimension of prosperity has long been ignored in the Arab world.", "zh": "繁荣的地区维度在阿拉伯世界长期受到忽视。", "index": 6783}
{"en": "But weak regional linkages limit small firms’ growth potential, forcing them to depend on state patronage.", "zh": "但微弱的地区联系局限了小企业的增长潜力，迫使它们依赖国家支持。", "index": 6784}
{"en": "Although Arab leaders often cite Turkey as a beacon of hope, they rarely acknowledge that the country’s recent transformation from the “sick man of Europe” to one of the world’s fastest-growing emerging markets would not have been possible had it not pursued regional synergies.", "zh": "尽管阿拉伯领导人经常把土耳其当做希望的灯塔，但他们很少承认，如果不追求地区协同效应，土耳其当前从“欧洲病夫”向世界增长最快的新兴市场的转型根本不可能实现。", "index": 6785}
{"en": "Such linkages are particularly important for Egypt and Tunisia, which will struggle to reduce unemployment unless Libya’s labor market – which has historically absorbed migrants from its North African neighbors – is reopened.", "zh": "这一联系对埃及和突尼斯尤其重要，除非利比亚劳动力市场重新开放 — — 传统上，利比亚吸收着来自北非诸邻国的移民 — — 否则埃及和突尼斯很难降低失业率。", "index": 6786}
{"en": "And, while Tunisia’s situation seems to be the most promising, a crippling investment shortfall is threatening to derail reform efforts there.", "zh": "而尽管突尼斯的状况似乎最为乐观，但要命的投资短缺有可能使改革夭折。", "index": 6787}
{"en": "With Europe mired in crisis, capital flows from Tunisia’s resource-rich Arab neighbors are its best hope.", "zh": "在欧洲饱受危机折磨的前提下，来自资源丰富的阿拉伯邻国的资本流入是突尼斯最大的希望。", "index": 6788}
{"en": "Furthermore, Arab countries must ratchet up development spending.", "zh": "除此之外，阿拉伯国家必须逐渐增加发展支出。", "index": 6789}
{"en": "Given that existing development banks in the region have largely failed to act as vehicles of coordination and commitment, a new institution – resembling the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – would have to be established to oversee a regional aid push and underwrite the costs of economic transition.", "zh": "该地区现有开发银行作为协调和委托实体大体上可以说是失败的，因此需要建立模仿欧洲复兴开发银行的新机构来管理地区援助，比如承销经济转型的成本。", "index": 6790}
{"en": "New investment vehicles, such as sovereign wealth funds and Islamic finance, can contribute financing to credit-starved firms.", "zh": "新投资实体，比如主权财富基金和伊斯兰金融也可以帮助信用饥渴的企业融资。", "index": 6791}
{"en": "At the same time, Arab countries must streamline current aid efforts.", "zh": "与此同时，阿拉伯国家必须让当前援助措施合理化。", "index": 6792}
{"en": "For too long, Arab governments have simply thrown money at problems, with the rich Gulf countries effectively subsidizing their troubled neighbors’ public services.", "zh": "长期以来，阿拉伯国家政府总是把钱浪费在问题上，富有的波斯湾国家实际上补贴着它们陷入麻烦的邻国的公共服务。", "index": 6793}
{"en": "Over the last two years, Saudi Arabia has provided more than $3 billion to Yemen.", "zh": "过去两年来，沙特向也门提供了30多亿美元。", "index": 6794}
{"en": "Qatar has provided  $5 billion to Egypt since 2011, with a promise of $3 billion more.", "zh": "卡塔尔自2011年以来向埃及提供了50亿美元，并承诺还将提供30亿美元。", "index": 6795}
{"en": "And the United Arab Emirates recently pledged $2.5 billion to Bahrain.", "zh": "阿联酋最近也承诺向巴林提供25亿美元。", "index": 6796}
{"en": "But unconditional aid only delays reforms, because it weakens budget constraints, which reduces pressure on policymakers and creates moral hazard.", "zh": "但无条件的援助只能拖延干戈，因为这削弱了预算约束，从而减轻了决策者的压力，创造了道德风险。", "index": 6797}
{"en": "The Arab Spring has exposed fault lines that run not just through individual countries, but also through the entire region.", "zh": "阿拉伯之春暴露了不仅存在于个体国家之间、也存在于整个地区的断层线。", "index": 6798}
{"en": "This calls for redefining relationships not only between citizens and states, but also among Arab countries.", "zh": "这不但需要重新定义人民和国家间关系，也需要重新定义阿拉伯国家之间的关系。", "index": 6799}
{"en": "Above all, it is no longer prudent to divide Arab countries between donors and recipients, or between resource-rich and resource-poor countries.", "zh": "最重要的是，将阿拉伯国家分为赞助过和受赞助国或资源富裕国和资源贫乏国已不再合适。", "index": 6800}
{"en": "It is in the interest of the entire region – including those countries that do not seem to face an imminent threat of revolt – to contribute to their neighbors’ economic revival and facilitate their political transitions.", "zh": "协助邻国经济复兴、刺激政治过渡是整个地区的利益所在 — — 包括并不面临迫切革命威胁的国家。", "index": 6801}
{"en": "The Ahistorical Federal Reserve", "zh": "反历史的美联储", "index": 6802}
{"en": "BERKELEY – Economic developments over the past 20 years have taught – or ought to have taught – the US Federal Reserve four lessons.", "zh": "伯克利—过去20年的经济发展教给 — — 或者应该教给 — — 美联储四个教训。", "index": 6803}
{"en": "Yet the Fed’s current policy posture raises the question of whether it has internalized any of them.", "zh": "但美联储当前的政策姿态让人们质疑他们是否消化了其中任何一个。", "index": 6804}
{"en": "The first lesson is that, at least as long as the current interest-rate configuration is sustained, the proper inflation target for the Fed should be 4% per year, rather than 2%.", "zh": "第一个教训是，至少在当前利率保持调整态势的情况下，美联储合理的目标通胀应该是每年4 % ， 而不是2 % 。", "index": 6805}
{"en": "A higher target is essential in order to have enough room to make the cuts in short-term safe nominal interest rates of five percentage points or more that are usually called for to cushion the effects of a recession when it hits the economy.", "zh": "为了在衰退影响到经济时有足够的空间削减通常所需要的短期安全名义利率五个或更多百分点，提高通胀目标至关重要。", "index": 6806}
{"en": "The Fed protests that to change its inflation target even once would erode the credibility of its commitment to ensuring price stability.", "zh": "美联储反对说，改变通胀目标，哪怕一次，会有损于其确保物价稳定的承诺的信誉。", "index": 6807}
{"en": "But the Fed can pay now or it can pay later.", "zh": "但美联储可以现在付出代价，也可以随后付出代价。", "index": 6808}
{"en": "After all, what good is credibility today when it means sticking tenaciously to a policy that deprives you of the ability to do your job properly tomorrow?", "zh": "毕竟，如果今天的信誉意味着坚持限制你明天游刃有余地完成任务的能力的政策，还有什么有点可言？", "index": 6809}
{"en": "The second lesson is that the two slope coefficients in the algebraic equation that is the Phillips curve – the link between expected inflation and current inflation, and the responsiveness of future inflation to current unemployment – are both much smaller than they were back in the 1970s or even in the 1980s.", "zh": "第二个教训是菲利普斯曲线代数公式中的两个斜率都较20世纪70年代甚至80年代出现了大幅下降。 菲利普斯曲线描述预期通胀和当前通胀之间的关系。", "index": 6810}
{"en": "Then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan recognized this in the 1990s.", "zh": "20世纪90年代，时任美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）发现了这一现象。", "index": 6811}
{"en": "He rightly judged that pushing for faster growth and lower unemployment was not taking excessive risks, but rather harvesting low-hanging fruit.", "zh": "他正确地判断，推动加快增长和降低失业不会带来过度风险，反而是唾手可得的果实。", "index": 6812}
{"en": "The current Fed appears to have a different view.", "zh": "现任美联储似乎持有不同观点。", "index": 6813}
{"en": "The third lesson is that yield-curve inversion in the bond market is not just a sign that the market thinks that monetary policy is too tight; it is a sign that monetary policy really is too tight.", "zh": "第三个教训是债券市场收益率曲线反转不仅仅是市场认为货币政策过紧的信号；它就是货币政策过紧的信号。", "index": 6814}
{"en": "The people who bid up the prices of long-term US Treasury bills in anticipation of interest-rate cuts when the Fed overshoots and triggers a recession are the same people who are now on tenterhooks wondering when to start cutting back on investment plans because a recession will soon produce overcapacity.", "zh": "当初认为美联储超调会导致利率下降而竞价抬高长期美国国债的人，与现在因为衰退会迅速导致产能过剩而焦虑不安地考虑何时收回投资计划的人，是同一拨人。", "index": 6815}
{"en": "The Fed today has a “habitat theory” about why this time is different – that is, why the preferences of investors for particular maturity lengths imply that a yield-curve inversion would not mean what it has always meant.", "zh": "今天，美联储有一套“栖息地理论”解释为何这次不一样 — — 即为何投资者对某个久期长度的偏好意味着收益率曲线反转的含义与过去不再相同。", "index": 6816}
{"en": "But 2006, just before the financial crisis hit, was supposed to be different, too.", "zh": "但在2006年，就在金融危机爆发前夕，人们也以为这次不一样了。", "index": 6817}
{"en": "(And there were plenty of times before then that were supposed to be different, too.)", "zh": "（在此之前也有许多次人们认为这次不一样。", "index": 6818}
{"en": "History suggests that this time is highly unlikely to be different – and that it will not end well if the Fed continues to believe and behave otherwise.", "zh": "）历史表明，这次不太可能不一样 — — 如果美联储继续这次会不一样，解决肯定不会好。", "index": 6819}
{"en": "The fourth lesson similarly reflects developments extending back further than 20 years.", "zh": "第四个教训同样反映了可追溯到20多年前的发展趋势。", "index": 6820}
{"en": "Back in the 1980s, it was not unreasonable to argue that the next large shock to the US macroeconomy was likely to be inflationary.", "zh": "20世纪80年代，有充分的理由认为下一场对美国宏观经济的大冲击可能是会引起通胀。", "index": 6821}
{"en": "It is much more difficult to reasonably argue that today.", "zh": "今天做出这样的判断依据不再。", "index": 6822}
{"en": "For the past three and a half decades, the principal shocks have not been inflationary, like the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, but rather deflationary, like the US savings and loan crisis in the 1980s and 1990s, the 1997 Asian crisis, the 2000 dot-com bust, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the 2007 subprime collapse that began in the US, and the 2010 European debt crash.", "zh": "在过去三十五年中，主要冲击都没有引起通胀，如1973和1979年石油危机，相反，它们引起了通缩，如20世纪八九十年代的美国储贷银行危机、1997年亚洲金融危机、2000年互联网泡沫破裂、2001年9月11日恐怖袭击、2007年始于美国的次贷危机，以及2010年欧洲债务危机。", "index": 6823}
{"en": "Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen told me back in the 1990s that, in her view, conducting the Fed’s internal debate within the framework of interest-rate rules had greatly increased the ease of getting from agreement about the structure and state of the economy to a rough consensus on appropriate policy.", "zh": "美联储前主席珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）在20世纪90年代告诉我，在她看来，在美联储内部组织在利率规则框架内的争论大大便利了从关于经济结构和状态的一致实现关于合适政策的粗略共识。", "index": 6824}
{"en": "But, at least as I see it, right now the Fed’s process of getting from a realistic view of the economy to an appropriate monetary policy does not seem to be functioning well at all.", "zh": "但是，至少在我看来，现在美联储从经济的现实观点到合适货币政策的转变过程运行一点都不好。", "index": 6825}
{"en": "Perhaps it is time for the Fed to place its internal discussions in a more explicit framework.", "zh": "也许美联储应该在更加明确的框架中进行内部讨论。", "index": 6826}
{"en": "One can imagine, for example, the Fed adopting an “optimal control” method, whereby monetary-policy settings are established by running multiple simulations of a macroeconomic model using different combinations of interest rates and balance-sheet tools to project future inflation and unemployment.", "zh": "比如，可以想象美联储采取“优化控制”方法，货币政策的制定建立在多重宏观经济模型仿真的基础上。 这些模型采用不同的利率和资产负债表工具组合，预测未来通胀和失业。", "index": 6827}
{"en": "The problem for optimal control methods is that the real world is not some closed system where economic relationships never change, or where they change in fully predictable ways.", "zh": "优化控制方法的问题是真实世界是一个比较封闭的系统，经济关系从不改变，或者以完全可预测的方式改变。", "index": 6828}
{"en": "The most effective – and thus the most credible – monetary policy is one that reflects not only the lessons of history, but also a willingness to reconsider long-held assumptions.", "zh": "最有效 — — 因此也是最可信 — — 的货币政策不但要反映历史教训，也要反映反思长期以来的假设的意愿。", "index": 6829}
{"en": "A History Lesson for Koizumi", "zh": "给小泉的一堂历史课", "index": 6830}
{"en": "Once again, protests against Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s annual visit to the Yasukuni shrine are breaking out in China as well as South Korea.", "zh": "中国和韩国又一次爆发了反对日本首相小泉纯一郎一年一度参拜靖国神社的抗议活动。", "index": 6831}
{"en": "Koizumi’s insistence on paying homage to the war dead interred at Yasukuni, where convicted war criminals from World War II are among the buried, has been damaging relations with Japan’s neighbors for years.", "zh": "小泉坚持拜祭埋葬有二战战犯的靖国神社，多年来一直损害着日本与邻国的关系。", "index": 6832}
{"en": "Indeed, Chinese President Hu Jintao continually affirms that he will not hold a summit with a Japanese prime minister who goes to Yasukuni, which most Chinese regard as a glorification of past Japanese aggression and colonialism.", "zh": "实际上，中国主席胡锦涛一直声称不与参拜靖国神社的日本首相举行首脑会谈。 大部分中国人认为参拜是美化日本过去侵略和殖民历史。", "index": 6833}
{"en": "Even some in Japan are becoming critical of Koizumi.", "zh": "甚至日本一些人也开始对小泉持批评意见。", "index": 6834}
{"en": "While the public remains negative about Chinese outbursts against Japan, a recent survey indicates that more than 70% of Japanese view the current state of Japan-China relations as unacceptable.", "zh": "虽然公众仍旧觉得中国人对日本爆发愤怒不可理喻，但是最近一项调查显示70%多的日本人认为日中关系当前的这种状态不可接受。", "index": 6835}
{"en": "More people are not supporting Koizumi’s annual pilgrimage to Yasukuni, with seven former prime ministers jointly demanding that he refrain from the visits.", "zh": "更多的人不支持小泉每年参拜靖国神社，七位前首相联合要求他放弃参拜。", "index": 6836}
{"en": "Yet Koizumi remains defiant.", "zh": "然而小泉却一意孤行。", "index": 6837}
{"en": "Moreover, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzu Abe, the front-runner to succeed him, has openly declared that he will continue to visit the shrine as prime minister.", "zh": "而且，最有可能接任他的内阁官房长官安倍晋三已经公开宣布他担任首相后将继续参拜靖国神社。", "index": 6838}
{"en": "Foreign Minister Taro Aso, another possible successor to Koizumi, has called for the Japanese Emperor to pray at Yasukuni.", "zh": "另一个可能接替小泉的人，外相麻生太郎呼吁日本天皇去参拜靖国神社。", "index": 6839}
{"en": "So pessimism appears to be settling in, and the deadlock over Yasukuni appears to be deepening.", "zh": "尽管局势似乎如此悲观，靖国神社僵局似乎正在加深。", "index": 6840}
{"en": "But the past can bring us more than just troubles of this kind.", "zh": "但是历史不仅仅能够给我们带来现在这种困境。", "index": 6841}
{"en": "Even on the issue of Yasukuni, there are positive lessons to be learned.", "zh": "甚至是在靖国神社问题上，也有积极的经验可供我们学习。", "index": 6842}
{"en": "Consider Yasuhiro Nakasone, Koizumi’s predecessor in the 1980’s.", "zh": "想一想小泉20世纪80年代的前辈中曾根康弘首相吧。", "index": 6843}
{"en": "Both are master politicians who remained popular and served long terms in office.", "zh": "两人都是精明的政治家，一直很受欢迎，执政时间也很长。", "index": 6844}
{"en": "Both are conservative and nationalistic, advocating the revision of the constitution and an assertive political and military role for Japan abroad.", "zh": "两人都是保守派，信奉民族主义，鼓吹修改宪法和日本在海外发挥更大的政治和军事作用。", "index": 6845}
{"en": "Finally, both are pro-American, with Nakasone declaring Japan to be America’s “unsinkable aircraft carrier” in East Asia and Koizumi sending troops to Iraq in support of the United States-led war effort.", "zh": "最后，两人都亲美，中曾根康弘宣布日本是美国在东亚“不沉的航空母舰 ” ， 小泉则向伊拉克派兵支持美国为首的战争行动。", "index": 6846}
{"en": "But a crucial difference between Nakasone and Koizumi is often overlooked: their handling of the Yasukuni controversy and relations with China.", "zh": "但是中曾与小泉之间一个重要的差别却常常被忽视,那就是他们处理靖国神社争议和对中关系的方法。", "index": 6847}
{"en": "Nakasone broke the taboo by being the first prime minister to worship at the Yasukuni shrine in his official capacity on August 15, 1985, the fortieth anniversary of the end of World War II.", "zh": "1985年8月15日、第二次世界大战结束40周年纪念日那天，中曾根康弘打破禁忌成为了第一位在职期间参拜靖国神社的首相。", "index": 6848}
{"en": "The decision triggered a severe response from China, where students held demonstrations against his visit.", "zh": "这个决定激起了中国强烈的反应，学生对他的参拜举行示威游行。", "index": 6849}
{"en": "Bilateral relations were frozen.", "zh": "双边关系被冻结。", "index": 6850}
{"en": "But, instead of capitalizing on domestic resentment over China’s criticisms, Nakasone decided not to visit Yasukuni again.", "zh": "但是，中曾根康弘没有利用国内对中国批评的不满，而是决定不再参拜靖国神社。", "index": 6851}
{"en": "He chose to mend relations with China by focusing on the positive aspects of bilateral ties.", "zh": "他选择修复与中国的关系，重点关注双边联系中积极的方面。", "index": 6852}
{"en": "In 1986, Nakasone went to Beijing at the personal invitation of Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Hu Yaobang and laid the cornerstone for a Sino-Japanese Youth Exchange Center, promising to forge future friendships with China.", "zh": "1986年，中曾根康弘应中共总书记胡耀邦的个人邀请访问北京，参加了中日青年交流中心的奠基活动，承诺培育与中国面向未来的友好关系。", "index": 6853}
{"en": "This genuine embrace of reconciliation provided much-needed support to Chinese leaders, who were eager to control anti-Japanese sentiments.", "zh": "这种真诚的拥抱和解为中国领导人提供了急需的支持，他们正急于控制国内的反日情绪。", "index": 6854}
{"en": "Hu praised Nakasone’s courage and warned Chinese youth publicly that if they “think merely of the well-being of their own country… they are not sober-minded patriots.”", "zh": "胡耀邦赞扬了中曾根康弘的勇气并公开警告中国年轻人如果他们“只考虑自己国家的利益，就不是头脑冷静的爱国者。 ”", "index": 6855}
{"en": "Nakasone emerged from the crisis and was recognized as a capable statesman in managing Japan’s diplomacy with China.", "zh": "中曾根康弘成功地摆脱了这场危机，作为一位政治家，被认为善于处理日本与中国的外交关系。", "index": 6856}
{"en": "There was no accusation that Nakasone was “selling out” to Beijing.", "zh": "没有人指责中曾为了北京而“出卖国家 ” 。", "index": 6857}
{"en": "Nor were his conservative, nationalist, and pro-American credentials damaged.", "zh": "他的保守主义、民族主义和亲美倾向的政治形象也没有受到损害。", "index": 6858}
{"en": "This episode suggests that Koizumi’s hardline position isn’t the only option.", "zh": "这段插曲表明小泉的强硬立场并不是唯一的选择。", "index": 6859}
{"en": "A Japanese prime minister can be strong without exploiting domestic resentment against the country’s neighbors, and conservative, patriotic, and pro-American while forging a healthy working relationship with China.", "zh": "日本首相可以是强势首相而不必利用国内对邻国的不满情绪；可以在培育正常运转的对中关系的同时保持保守、爱国和亲美的立场。", "index": 6860}
{"en": "Indeed, the cessation of Yasukuni visits would likely open the door to the long-overdue Sino-Japanese summit, which in turn might strengthen moderate voices in China seeking a future-oriented relationship with Japan.", "zh": "实际上，停止参拜靖国神社很可能将开启搁置已久的中日政府首脑会议的大门，这将加强中国温和派的声音，他们寻求发展面向未来的中日关系。", "index": 6861}
{"en": "Unfortunately, Koizumi and his allies are not prepared to move forward on the Yasukuni issue.", "zh": "不幸的是，小泉和他们的盟友不准备在靖国神社问题上更进一步。", "index": 6862}
{"en": "As Foreign Minister Aso recently put it: “The more China voices [opposition], the more one feels like going there.", "zh": "正如外相麻生太郎最近指出的那样 ： “ 中国反对的声音越强，日本人越觉得应该去参拜。", "index": 6863}
{"en": "It’s just like when you’re told ‘Don't smoke cigarettes,’ it actually makes you want to smoke.”", "zh": "这就好像当有人告诉你‘不要抽烟’时，实际上却让你更想抽烟。 ”", "index": 6864}
{"en": "No one expects the current Japanese and Chinese leaders to embrace, as Nakasone and Hu did two decades ago, but it is a sad state of affairs when the leaders of neighboring giants pretend not to see each other at international forums.", "zh": "没有人期望日本和中国现在的领导人如中曾根康弘和胡耀邦二十年前那样互相拥抱，但是相邻两个大国的领导人在国际会议上假装互相没看见这种情形令人悲哀。", "index": 6865}
{"en": "If Nakasone, who now urges Koizumi to stop the Yasukuni pilgrimage, were to respond to Aso, he might simply extend the analogy: it is not in Japan’s national interest to continue to inhale Koizumi’s second-hand smoke.", "zh": "如果现在规劝小泉根康弘停止参拜靖国神社的中曾来回答麻生太郎，他可以简单地发挥一下这个类比：继续吸小泉的二手烟不符合日本的国家利益。", "index": 6866}
{"en": "Israel versus America versus Iran", "zh": "以色列、美国和伊朗", "index": 6867}
{"en": "TEL AVIV – Israel’s concern about the specter of a nuclear Iran has now degenerated into a crisis of confidence concerning the United States.", "zh": "特拉维夫—以色列对有核伊朗这一幽灵的担忧不欠已经变成了一场对美国的信心危机。", "index": 6868}
{"en": "Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has embarked on a campaign to force President Barack Obama to set a red line that Iran must not cross, lest it risk unleashing an American military response.", "zh": "总理内塔尼亚胡在一次活动中强迫奥巴马设置一条伊朗不得跨越的红线，否则美国将采取军事干预。", "index": 6869}
{"en": "Implicit threats of a unilateral Israeli attack, together with conspicuous meddling in the US presidential election campaign, have compounded Netanyahu’s effort to twist Obama’s arm.", "zh": "暗示以色列将单方面采取军事袭击以及赤裸裸地干预美国大选，这些举动表明内塔尼亚胡在和奥巴马较劲。", "index": 6870}
{"en": "The controversy between the two allies partly reflects their divergent timelines: for Israel, the red line is Iran’s imminent burial deep underground of its uranium-enrichment facilities; for the US, it is the start of a dedicated weapons program.", "zh": "两大盟友之间的争议部分地反映了它们不同的当务之急：对以色列来说，红线是伊朗马上就要上马的深层地下铀浓缩设施；而对美国来说，最紧迫的问题是专门用于军事目的的核设施。", "index": 6871}
{"en": "But, equally important, the dispute underscores their different objectives.", "zh": "但是，同样重要的是，这一争议体现了它们不同的目标。", "index": 6872}
{"en": "For Israel, war with Iran is not about neutralizing an existential threat; it is about reasserting its regional status.", "zh": "对以色列来说，和伊朗开战并不是为了消灭一个已经存在的威胁，而是为了重建其地区地位。", "index": 6873}
{"en": "Israel’s leaders see their country’s standing in the region being seriously threatened by the emergence of a hostile Islamist regime in Egypt; the possibility that a similarly hostile regime will eventually emerge in Syria; the fragility of traditionally friendly Jordan; and the dangerous boost that the regional Islamist awakening has given to Israel’s sworn enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah.", "zh": "以色列领导人认为该国在中东地区的地位受到了严重威胁：埃及出现了敌对伊斯兰政权而；叙利亚也有可能出现类似的敌对政权；传统友邦约旦摇摇欲坠；以色列不共戴天的仇敌哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党等地区伊斯兰组织也因此大为振奋。", "index": 6874}
{"en": "Both Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak thus regard an attack on Iran as a major strategic move aimed at the broader Middle East, which implies that they would not discount a military campaign that goes well beyond surgical air strikes.", "zh": "因此，内塔尼亚胡和国防部长巴拉克均将伊朗视为意在大中东的战略性动作，这是一种暗示：以色列不会惮于发动远超外科手术式空袭规模的军事行动。", "index": 6875}
{"en": "Indeed, they probably contemplate land incursions into Iran, and possibly a decisive – and, from their perspective, long overdue – showdown with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.", "zh": "事实上，他们可能已经在考虑从陆上突入伊朗，并（这方面或许已经谋划已久了）对加沙地区的哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党予以决定性打击。", "index": 6876}
{"en": "Though determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if doing so requires military action, the US weighs the consequences of a military showdown in very different terms.", "zh": "美国不会接受伊朗拥有核武器，即使为此采取军事行动也在所不惜。 尽管如此，美国对军事行动后果的评估与以色列大不相同。", "index": 6877}
{"en": "A superpower that has earned only frustration in its abortive efforts – whether war or regional diplomacy – in the dysfunctional Middle East, the US faces the Iran crisis in the midst of its epochal strategic shift to Asia and the Pacific.", "zh": "作为一个超级大国，美国在瘫痪的中东所做的一系列动作都没有取得成功（不管是战争还是地区外交 ） ， 伊朗危机又发生在其欲进行将重点移到亚太地区的划时代的战略大转移的当口。", "index": 6878}
{"en": "The fallout from a war in Iran would pin down the US in the Middle East for years to come, undermining its new strategic priorities.", "zh": "与伊朗开战的不良影响将在多年内对美国的中东地位造成危险，破坏其新的战略要务。", "index": 6879}
{"en": "As a result, the US, though certainly better equipped than Israel for a war to ensure that Iran forever abandons its nuclear ambitions, could nonetheless conclude that that objective is simply too costly.", "zh": "因此，尽管对于让伊朗永久放弃核野心方面，美国显然比以色列有更好的条件发动战争，但美国极有可能认为这一目标实在成本太高。", "index": 6880}
{"en": "The recent report by The Iran Project, whose signatories include the former US national security advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, concluded that an American military attack on Iran could only delay its nuclear program for up to four years.", "zh": "最新的伊朗报告（Iran Project，署名作者包括前美国国家安全顾问斯考克罗夫特和布热津斯基）指出，美国对伊朗的军事打击最多只能将后者的和进程延缓四年。", "index": 6881}
{"en": "To guarantee that Iran never acquires a nuclear bomb, the US would need to maintain military pressure on Iran for several years.", "zh": "为了保证伊朗永远不会有核弹，美国需要在多年内保持对伊朗的军事压力。", "index": 6882}
{"en": "And, if forced to impose regime change as the ultimate solution to the dilemma, the report assumes that this would require military occupation, which would entail a commitment of resources and personnel greater than what the US invested in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.", "zh": "伊��报告说，如果最终必须靠推翻政权来解决这一难题，那么就需要采取军事占领，而军事占领伊朗所需要的资源和人力比伊拉克和阿富汗两场战争的总和还要多。", "index": 6883}
{"en": "Moreover, the conventional assumption that the region’s Sunni Arab regimes would give tacit approval to a military attack on Iran’s nuclear installations must be revisited in the wake of the Arab Spring – particularly in the aftermath of the recent, sudden upsurge in anti-American violence throughout the Muslim world.", "zh": "此外，在阿拉伯之春爆发后，传统智慧 — — 中东地区的逊尼派阿拉伯国家必然会默认对伊朗核设施的军事打击 — — 必须重新评估了，特别是在最近突然爆发的席卷穆斯林世界的反美暴力风潮之后。", "index": 6884}
{"en": "The pre-Arab Spring paradigm that framed the Middle East as being divided between “moderates” and “extremists” has become obsolete.", "zh": "前阿拉伯之春时代的范式 — — 中的你可以分为“温和”和“极端”两大阵营 — — 已是老黄历了。", "index": 6885}
{"en": "The Islamist governments that have emerged from the downfall of America’s puppet regimes are no friends of an Iranian nuclear empire.", "zh": "趁美国傀儡政权倒台而出现的伊斯兰政府并不是伊朗核帝国的盟友。", "index": 6886}
{"en": "But, in their struggle to survive, they must channel popular anti-Americanism.", "zh": "但是，在生存斗争中，它们必须疏导流行的反美主义。", "index": 6887}
{"en": "For Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, that imperative meant placating the angry mob that recently attacked the US embassy rather than merely condemning the violence.", "zh": "对埃及总统穆尔西来说，这一要求意味着必须对最近袭击美国大使馆的暴徒进行安抚，而不仅仅是谴责暴力。", "index": 6888}
{"en": "An attack on Iran, especially if it develops into a longer war involving regional proxies, is bound to become the trigger for mass anti-Israel and anti-US hysteria, which might draw the Islamist regimes in the region into a dynamic of escalation.", "zh": "袭击伊朗，特别是如果这发展为涉及地区代理的长期战争，注定会演变为出发反以和反美狂潮的扳机，将该地区的伊斯兰政权成为燎原之势。", "index": 6889}
{"en": "It would be impossible to rule out a regional war.", "zh": "这样一来，地区战争就不可避免了。", "index": 6890}
{"en": "The main problem facing a military operation in Iran is the need to ensure its legitimacy.", "zh": "对伊朗采取军事行动的一个主要问题是必须保证这么做的合法性。", "index": 6891}
{"en": "China and Russia would never allow the US to secure a United Nations mandate for an attack.", "zh": "中国和俄罗斯绝不会让美国促使联合国通过军事打击的决议。", "index": 6892}
{"en": "Moreover, while Iranian provocations that clearly reveal the regime’s intentions to develop a nuclear-weapons capability might help build support for American military action, it is far from certain that Europeans, or others, would rush to join another US-led “coalition of the willing.”", "zh": "此外，尽管伊朗的挑衅行为明白无误地揭露了其发展核武器的意图，这有助于培养对美国军事行动的支持，但欧洲和其他地区会不会争相加入另一场美国领导的“自愿联盟”还远未可知。", "index": 6893}
{"en": "The dire legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan weighs heavily on the Western democracies.", "zh": "伊拉克和阿富汗战争的可怕结局将对西方民主国家造成重大影响。", "index": 6894}
{"en": "The saddest part of the story is Israel’s utter indifference to the need to build international legitimacy for its drive to stop Iran’s nuclear program.", "zh": "最悲观的部分在于以色列在为阻止以色列核计划的行动营造国际合法性方面具有完全不同的需求。", "index": 6895}
{"en": "Netanyahu thinks in bold military terms, not in terms of geopolitical strategy.", "zh": "内塔尼亚胡认为应该采取断然军事手段，而不是地缘政治战略博弈。", "index": 6896}
{"en": "His careless Palestine policy has left Israel with few friends in the international community, let alone in the Arab Middle East.", "zh": "他的鲁莽巴勒斯坦政策已经让以色列在国际社会中失去了所有朋友，更不用说阿拉伯中东地区的友邦了。", "index": 6897}
{"en": "Indeed, many regard Netanyahu’s Iran obsession as nothing more than a successful ploy to divert attention from the Palestinian issue.", "zh": "事实上，许多人认为，内塔尼亚胡在伊朗问题上纠缠不休无非是成功将注意力从巴勒斯坦问题上转移的伎俩。", "index": 6898}
{"en": "Only a generous, bold peace initiative that would genuinely revive the two-state solution, accompanied by a freeze on construction and enlargement of West Bank settlements, would help to recover the good will of the Palestinians and their brethren throughout the Arab world.", "zh": "只有真正可以修补两国关系的宽宏、果断的和平计划，并辅之以停止约旦河西岸定居点的建设和扩展，才能够重新赢得巴勒斯坦人民及其阿拉伯世界同胞的好感。", "index": 6899}
{"en": "And only that outcome can secure the international goodwill that both Israel and the US will need for a showdown with Iran.", "zh": "而只有赢得了阿拉伯世界的好感，才能保证国际社会肯定以色列和美国遏制伊朗的意图。", "index": 6900}
{"en": "A Human Rights Crime In Gaza", "zh": "加沙的人权犯罪", "index": 6901}
{"en": "Atlanta -- The world is witnessing a terrible human rights crime in Gaza, where a million and a half human beings are being imprisoned with almost no access to the outside world by sea, air, or land. An entire population is being brutally punished.", "zh": "亚特兰大-世界正在见证着发生在加沙的一场严重的人道犯罪，在那里有大约150万人被囚禁在几乎与世界断绝联系的地方，无论是从海上、空中或者陆路都很难进入这个地方。 里面所有的人都在承受着残酷的惩罚。", "index": 6902}
{"en": "This gross mistreatment of the Palestinians in Gaza was escalated dramatically by Israel, with United States backing, after political candidates representing Hamas won a majority of seats in the Palestinian Authority parliament in 2006. The election was unanimously judged to be honest and fair by all international observers.", "zh": "在2006年代表哈马斯的政治候选人赢得巴勒斯坦议会的大多数席位后，以色列在美国的支持下对加沙的巴勒斯坦人这种不加区分的虐待更加变本加厉了，尽管这次选举被所有的国际观察员一致认为是诚实和公正的。", "index": 6903}
{"en": "Israel and the US refused to accept the right of Palestinians to form a unity government with Hamas and Fatah and now, after internal strife, Hamas alone controls Gaza.  Forty-one of the 43 victorious Hamas candidates who lived in the West Bank are now imprisoned by Israel, plus an additional ten who assumed positions in the short-lived coalition cabinet.", "zh": "以色列和美国拒绝接受巴勒斯坦人组成哈马斯和法塔赫的联合政府的权利；而现在，在一场内战后，哈马斯独自控制了加沙。 在生活在西岸的43个获胜的哈马斯候选人中有41个现在被以色列监禁着，此外以色列还监禁了10名曾在短命的联合政府中任职的哈马斯派别的人。", "index": 6904}
{"en": "Regardless of one’s choice in the partisan struggle between Fatah and Hamas within occupied Palestine, we must remember that economic sanctions and restrictions in delivering water, food, electricity, and fuel are causing extreme hardship among the innocent people in Gaza, about one million of whom are refugees.", "zh": "不管对巴勒斯坦被占领土上法塔赫与哈马斯之间的党派斗争支持哪一方，我们必须记住的是经济制裁以及限制供应水、食品、电力和燃料正在给生活在加沙的无辜的民众的生活造成极度的困难，其中有大约100万人是难民。", "index": 6905}
{"en": "Israeli bombs and missiles periodically strike the encapsulated area, causing high casualties among both militants and innocent women and children.", "zh": "以色列对这个被围困的地区不时的轰炸以及发射的火箭弹给那里的武装人员和无辜的妇女儿童都造成了巨大的伤亡。", "index": 6906}
{"en": "Prior to the highly publicized killing of a woman and her four little children last week, this pattern was illustrated by a previous report from B’Tselem, the leading Israeli human rights organization: 106 Palestinians were killed between February 27 and March 3. Fifty-four of them were civilians who didn't take part in the fighting, and 25 were under 18 years of age.", "zh": "在上周发生的一名妇女和她的四个孩子被炸死的事件被广为曝光前，这样的事情实际上之前已经被B’Tselem（被占领土人权状况以色列信息中心）的一份报告描述过了：在2月27日至3月3日期间，有106位巴勒斯坦人被杀害，其中54人是从未参加过任何武装斗争的平民，25人未满18岁。", "index": 6907}
{"en": "On a recent trip through the Middle East, I attempted to gain a better understanding of the crisis.", "zh": "在我最近对中东地区的穿梭访问中，我试图对这场危机有更好的理解。", "index": 6908}
{"en": "One of my visits was to Sderot, a community of about 20,000 in southern Israel that is frequently struck by rudimentary rockets fired from nearby Gaza.", "zh": "其间我访问了斯德罗社区，这是一个位于以色列南部、大约有20000人口的社区，经常遭到来自临近的加沙的那些劣质火箭弹的袭击。", "index": 6909}
{"en": "I condemned these attacks as abominable and an act of terrorism, since most of the thirteen victims during the past seven years have been non-combatants.", "zh": "我谴责这些袭击为可恶和恐怖行为，因为过去七年间的13位牺牲者大多数是非武装人员。", "index": 6910}
{"en": "Subsequently, I met with leaders of Hamas, both a delegation from Gaza and the top officials in Damascus, Syria.", "zh": "随后我会晤了哈马斯的领导人，有来自加沙的代表团以及来自叙利亚大马士革的高级官员。", "index": 6911}
{"en": "I made the same condemnation to them, and urged that they declare a unilateral ceasefire or orchestrate with Israel a mutual agreement to terminate all military action in and around Gaza for an extended period.", "zh": "我再次谴责了他们的袭击行为，并且敦促他们宣布单边停火或者与以色列共同达成协议在相当长的一段时间内停止加沙内外的所有军事行动。", "index": 6912}
{"en": "They responded that such previous action by them had not been reciprocated, and they reminded me that Hamas had previously insisted on a ceasefire throughout Palestine including both Gaza and the West Bank, which Israel had refused.", "zh": "他们回答说他们以前曾经采取过这样的行动，但是没有得到响应。 他们还提醒我说哈马斯此前曾坚持在包括加沙和西岸的整个巴勒斯坦地区实现停火，但是被以色列拒绝了。", "index": 6913}
{"en": "Hamas then made a public proposal of a mutual ceasefire restricted to Gaza, which the Israelis considered and also rejected.", "zh": "后来哈马斯公开提出双方只在加沙地区实现停火，对此以色列表示愿意考虑，但最后还是拒绝了。", "index": 6914}
{"en": "There are fervent arguments heard on both sides concerning blame for a lack of peace in the Holy Land.", "zh": "双方内部对于无法在圣地实现和平都充满着激烈的争论。", "index": 6915}
{"en": "Israel has occupied and colonized the Palestinian West Bank, which is approximately one-fourth (28.5%) the size of the nation of Israel as recognized by the international community.", "zh": "以色列已经占领并且殖民化了巴勒斯坦的西岸地区，其面积大约相当于以色列被国际社会认可的国土面积的四分之一（28.5 % ） 。", "index": 6916}
{"en": "Some Israeli religious factions claim a right to the land on both sides of the Jordan River, and others aver that their 205 settlements with some 500,000 people are necessary for “security.”", "zh": "一些以色列的宗教派别宣称以色列对约旦河两岸的土地都拥有权利，还有一些人坚称他们居住着大约50万人口的205个定居点需要“安全 ” 。", "index": 6917}
{"en": "All Arab nations have agreed to full recognition of Israel if it will comply with key United Nations resolutions.", "zh": "所有的阿拉伯国家都同意如果以色列愿意遵守主要的联合国决议，它们就将完全承认以色列。", "index": 6918}
{"en": "Hamas has agreed to accept any negotiated peace settlement between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, provided it is approved in a referendum among the Palestinian people.", "zh": "哈马斯已经同意接受巴勒斯坦民族权利机构主席阿巴斯与以色列总理奥尔默特之间达成的任何和平协议，只要它能够被巴勒斯坦全民公决通过。", "index": 6919}
{"en": "This holds promise of progress, but despite the brief fanfare and positive statements at the peace conference last November in Annapolis, Maryland, a retrogression has occurred in the process.", "zh": "这让我们看到了取得进展的希望，但是尽管去年11月份在马里兰州的安那波利斯和平会议上发表了令人鼓舞宣言，和平进程还是出现了倒退。", "index": 6920}
{"en": "Nine thousand new Israeli settlement housing units have been announced in Palestine, the number of roadblocks within the West bank has increased, and the stranglehold on Gaza has been tightened.", "zh": "以色列宣布将在巴勒斯坦建设9000套新的居住单元，设在西岸地区的路障数量还在增加，而对加沙的压制则更紧了。", "index": 6921}
{"en": "It is one thing for other leaders to defer to the US on the crucial peace negotiations, but the world must not stand idle while innocent people are treated cruelly.", "zh": "其他国家的领导人遵从美国在至关重要的和平谈��上的地位是一回事，但是另一方面当无辜的民众受到残酷的虐待时世界绝不能袖手旁观。", "index": 6922}
{"en": "It is time for strong voices in Europe, the US, Israel, and elsewhere to speak out and condemn this human rights tragedy among the Palestinian people.", "zh": "现在是欧洲、美国、以色列和其他地区发出强烈的声音，齐声谴责发生在巴勒斯坦人民身上的这场人权悲剧的时候了。", "index": 6923}
{"en": "A Hundred Years of Superconductivity", "zh": "超导百年", "index": 6924}
{"en": "CHICAGO – The world’s first “quantum” computer – a machine that harnesses the magic of quantum phenomena to perform memory and processing tasks incredibly faster than today’s silicon-based computer chips – was recently sold by D-Wave Systems of Canada to Lockheed-Martin.", "zh": "发自芝加哥 — — 世界首台“量子”计算机 — — 一台利用量子现象的魔力来构成记忆体且任务执行速度远远高于当前使用的硅芯片的机器 — — 最近由加拿大的D-Wave系统公司出售给洛克希德-马丁公司。", "index": 6925}
{"en": "And, while some question whether the machine is truly a quantum computer, its designers have published articles in peer-reviewed journals demonstrating that the basic elements of this novel computer are indeed superconducting quantum bits.", "zh": "与此同时，当人们开始质疑这台量子计算机的真伪时，其设计者在权威专业杂志上发表文章，阐述了构成这台崭新计算机的基本元素其实就是超导的量子位。", "index": 6926}
{"en": "This spring marked the 100th anniversary of the discovery of superconductivity – the ability of materials to carry electrical current with no loss.", "zh": "此举也成为了超导现象100周年纪念的标志性事件。 所谓超导，就是物质携带电流却不造成损失的能力。", "index": 6927}
{"en": "Currents set up in superconducting wires can exist for years without any measurable decay.", "zh": "超导线中的电流可以存在数年都不出现可测量的衰减。", "index": 6928}
{"en": "Because of this property, superconductors have unique features that can be exploited in many ways.", "zh": "这种特性使得超导体拥有了可供多方面利用的独有特征。", "index": 6929}
{"en": "They can carry enormous amounts of current, making them ideal for urban power grids. And, when wound into coils, they can produce extremely strong magnetic fields.", "zh": "它们可以携带巨量电流，非常适用于城市电网，而被卷成线圈时又能制造出极其强大的磁场。", "index": 6930}
{"en": "Such superconducting magnets have been applied in a variety of technologies.", "zh": "这些超导磁体被应用到一系列技术当中。", "index": 6931}
{"en": "The best-known examples are the magnets that drive the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines found in most hospitals.", "zh": "最广为人知的就是驱动医院磁共振成像系统（MRI）的磁体。", "index": 6932}
{"en": "Perhaps the most exotic are the huge magnets used to accelerate particles in the Large Hadron Collider, which seeks to discover the fundamental principles of matter.", "zh": "最鲜为人知的或许是欧洲大型强子对撞机中用于加速粒子的巨型磁体，而该设备则被利用来探索物质的基本原理。", "index": 6933}
{"en": "Despite their great promise, however, superconductors have limits, the primary one being that most superconduct at very low temperatures – indeed, near absolute zero (-273 ºC).", "zh": "虽然拥有巨大的前景，但超导体也存在自身的限制，其中最主要的一点就是大多数超导现象只有在极低温环境下才能实现 — — 事实上就是接近绝对零度 （ - 273摄氏度 ） 。", "index": 6934}
{"en": "Such temperatures can be achieved only through liquid-helium cooling.", "zh": "而这种温度只能通过液氦冷却来实现。", "index": 6935}
{"en": "Thus, Swiss researchers caused excitement in 1986 by announcing the discovery of superconductivity in an oxide of copper at twice the temperature of the previous record holder.", "zh": "因此当瑞士研究人员在1986年宣布发现了一种可以在比前纪录保持者高一倍的温度下实现超导的铜氧化物时，全世界都为之一振。", "index": 6936}
{"en": "Shortly thereafter, researchers in the United States found a related material that superconducts above the temperature at which air liquefies.", "zh": "不久之后美国研究人员也发现了一种可以在高于气体液化温度的情况下实现超导的相关物质。", "index": 6937}
{"en": "As Time magazine proclaimed in May 1987, with the discovery of these so-called “cuprates,” the superconducting revolution had begun.", "zh": "正如《时代》杂志在1987年5月正式宣布的那样，随着这类名为“高温超导铜氧化物”的发现，我们已经迎来了超导的革命。", "index": 6938}
{"en": "Alas, the revolution soon bogged down.", "zh": "无奈这场革命却很快陷入了低潮。", "index": 6939}
{"en": "Cuprates are notoriously difficult materials to work with, because they are very brittle.", "zh": "这类铜化合物非常难以使用，因为它们极为易碎。", "index": 6940}
{"en": "This is exacerbated by their strong anisotropy – the materials have a quasi-two-dimensional structure consisting of a weakly coupled stack of conducting sheets. As such, they are a challenge for industry, though applications are beginning to appear.", "zh": "更糟糕的则是它们本身强烈的各向异性 — — 这种材料拥有一个由大量互相弱连结的导电薄层所组成的准二维结构，因此虽然不断得到应用，对工业界来说也极富技术难度。", "index": 6941}
{"en": "Since the cuprates first appeared, a variety of other “high temperature” superconductors have been discovered – one is a simple compound of magnesium and boron, and another involves a mixture of iron and arsenic.", "zh": "在高温超导铜氧化物发现之后，科学界也发现了一系列其他类型的“高温”超导体 — — 其中一种是镁和硼的简单化合物，另一种则是铁和砷的混合物。", "index": 6942}
{"en": "Although none of them superconduct at temperatures as high as liquid air, they may ultimately be better materials with which to work.", "zh": "虽然这些材料都未能在高于气体液化温度的情况下实现超导，但他们可能会最终成为可供应用的更佳材料。", "index": 6943}
{"en": "Given the vast number of combinations of elements that can form compounds, there is a good chance that better superconductors await our discovery.", "zh": "考虑到不同元素间可以组合出成千上万种化合物，因此更好的超导材料很可能就在不远处。", "index": 6944}
{"en": "In the coming years, superconductors are expected to play a growing role in technology.", "zh": "超导体预计将在未来科技中扮演日渐重要的角色。", "index": 6945}
{"en": "Already, “second generation” cuprate wires are being used to make high-capacity cables for electric-power transmission, and lighter-weight generators for wind turbines.", "zh": "“第二代”高位超导铜氧化物导线已经被用于制造利于电力传输的高能电缆以及风力涡轮的更轻量发电机。", "index": 6946}
{"en": "Stronger superconducting magnets are leading to the development of MRIs with more sophisticated diagnostic capabilities.", "zh": "强超导磁体推动下的MRI技术发展使得医学诊断更加精确。", "index": 6947}
{"en": "Superconductors are being used for levitated trains in high-speed rail transport, and as microwave filters for improved signal bandwidth in cellular base stations.", "zh": "超导体被运用于高速悬浮列车，还可以制成微波过滤器来提高蜂窝电信基站的信号带宽。", "index": 6948}
{"en": "The discovery of a new superconductor with enhanced properties could lead to even greater technological innovation.", "zh": "一个拥有更优秀特性的新超导体的发现可能会带来更重大的技术革新。", "index": 6949}
{"en": "This brings us to the intellectual challenge of superconductors.", "zh": "这是我们所面临的关于超导体智力挑战。", "index": 6950}
{"en": "It took 46 years from the discovery of superconductivity to the 1957 Bardeen, Cooper, and Schrieffer (BCS) theory of how the phenomenon occurs.", "zh": "从发现超导现象到1957年巴丁-库珀-施里弗（BCS）关于该现象如何产生的理论发表足足用了46年。", "index": 6951}
{"en": "Along the way, a number of famous physicists tried and failed to get the answer – Albert Einstein, Werner Heisenberg, and Richard Feynman being notable examples.", "zh": "沿着这条道路，一大批著名物理学家前赴后继地追寻这个答案 — — 爱因斯坦，沃纳·海森堡和理查德·费曼则是他们的杰出代表。", "index": 6952}
{"en": "Discovering the solution required the development of advanced theoretical techniques.", "zh": "解开这个难题需要依靠先进理论工具的发展。", "index": 6953}
{"en": "What had been difficult to figure out was how to get electrons to superconduct.", "zh": "其中较为困难的则是如何使电子显示超导性。", "index": 6954}
{"en": "The basic discovery of BCS was that if the electrons pair up, those couples could indeed superconduct.", "zh": "巴丁-库珀-施里弗理论的基本发现则是如果电子能两两配对，那么这些电子对就能实现超导。", "index": 6955}
{"en": "Fortunately, the mechanism for such coupling was known.", "zh": "幸运的是，这种配对的机制已经被发现了。", "index": 6956}
{"en": "Although electrons are negatively charged, and therefore repel one another, the positive ions that they leave behind when they flow through a metal can mediate an effective attraction between two electrons under restrictive conditions (for example, the metal must be very cold).", "zh": "虽然电子都是带负电并互相排斥的，但它们穿过金属时所抛弃的正离子可以在某种限制性条件下（比如冷却该金属）成为两个电子互相吸引的有效媒介。", "index": 6957}
{"en": "The suspicion, though, is that this is not the case in the new superconductors.", "zh": "但也有人认为这不会是新超导体的特性。", "index": 6958}
{"en": "Cuprates superconduct at much higher temperatures, but, more importantly, they possess some exotic properties: they are formed by doping electrical carriers into a host material that is a magnetic insulator – the last place one would look for a conventional superconductor.", "zh": "高温超导铜氧化物能在更高的温度下实现超导，但更重要的是它们拥有一种吸引人��特性：它们是由将电载流子掺入基质材料而形成的 — — 该材料是一种磁性绝缘体，也是研究者们最没想到可能实现常规超导体的地方。", "index": 6959}
{"en": "And, unlike BCS theory, in which the pairs are isotropic – with identical properties in all directions in space – the pairs in cuprates are strongly anisotropic, resembling a cloverleaf.", "zh": "跟巴丁-库珀-施里弗理论中电子对都是等方性的（即空间中所有方向都具有同样特性）不同的是，高温超导铜氧化物的电子对是强烈各向异性的，类似一个四面立体交叉的结构。", "index": 6960}
{"en": "How can one pair electrons without ions holding them together, thereby enabling higher-temperature superconductors?", "zh": "如何能在缺少离子的情况下让电子对互相连结在一起，并以此实现高温超导体？", "index": 6961}
{"en": "While ideas about this abound, new theoretical breakthroughs most likely will be needed to develop the machinery required to solve such electron-electron theories, perhaps even involving black holes.", "zh": "当关于这点的理论设想层出不穷之时，必须在解释这类电子-电子理论的体系（甚至包括黑洞）上取得新的理论突破。", "index": 6962}
{"en": "Whatever the theory turns out to be, it is certain to revolutionize physics.", "zh": "但无论这一理论将如何发展，它都注定将催生物理学的革命。", "index": 6963}
{"en": "Lies, Damned Lies, and AI", "zh": "谎言、该死的谎言和人工智能", "index": 6964}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Algorithms are as biased as the data they feed on.", "zh": "剑桥 — — 算法和算法所依赖的数据一样带有偏见。", "index": 6965}
{"en": "And all data are biased.", "zh": "而且一切数据都是带有偏见的。", "index": 6966}
{"en": "Even “official” statistics cannot be assumed to stand for objective, eternal “facts.”", "zh": "即使是“官方”统计数据也不能被认定代表客观永恒的“事实 ” 。", "index": 6967}
{"en": "The figures that governments publish represent society as it is now, through the lens of what those assembling the data consider to be relevant and important.", "zh": "政府发布的数字代表着当前的社会状况，在那些搜集数据的人看来代表着重要性和相关性。", "index": 6968}
{"en": "The categories and classifications used to make sense of the data are not neutral.", "zh": "被用于理解数据的范畴和分类并不是中立的。", "index": 6969}
{"en": "Just as we measure what we see, so we tend to see only what we measure.", "zh": "就像我们只衡量我们所看到的那样，我们往往会对衡量范畴以外的东西视而不见。", "index": 6970}
{"en": "As algorithmic decision-making spreads to a wider range of policymaking areas, it is shedding a harsh light on the social biases that once lurked in the shadows of the data we collect.", "zh": "就像算法决策扩散到更大范围的决策领域一样，它正在刺眼地暴露出曾经藏在我们搜集数据阴影中的社会偏见。", "index": 6971}
{"en": "By taking existing structures and processes to their logical extremes, artificial intelligence (AI) is forcing us to confront the kind of society we have created.", "zh": "通过将现有结构和流程纳入其逻辑极值，人工智能（AI）正迫使我们正视我们所创造的社会。", "index": 6972}
{"en": "The problem is not just that computers are designed to think like corporations, as my University of Cambridge colleague Jonnie Penn has argued. It is also that computers think like economists.", "zh": "问题不仅在于我在剑桥大学的同事詹妮·潘所提出的，设计计算机的初衷是让它像企业一样思考，而是计算机也在模仿经济学家的思考方式。", "index": 6973}
{"en": "An AI, after all, is as infallible a version of homo economicus as one can imagine.", "zh": "毕竟，人工智能是人类想象范围内从不出错的经济人。", "index": 6974}
{"en": "It is a rationally calculating, logically consistent, ends-oriented agent capable of achieving its desired outcomes with finite computational resources.", "zh": "它是一种能够合理计算、逻辑连贯并以目标为中心的代理，能够利用有限的计算资源实现其期望中的局面。", "index": 6975}
{"en": "When it comes to “maximizing utility,” they are far more effective than any human.", "zh": "如果说到“效用最大化 ” ， 它们的有效性超过任何人。", "index": 6976}
{"en": "“Utility” is to economics what “phlogiston” once was to chemistry.", "zh": "“效用”之于经济学就像是曾几何时“燃素”之于化学一般。", "index": 6977}
{"en": "Early chemists hypothesized that combustible matter contained a hidden element – phlogiston – that could explain why substances changed form when they burned.", "zh": "早期的化学家们假设可燃物质含有一种隐蔽元素 — — 也就是燃素 — — 这就可以解释物质为什么在燃烧时会发生形式改变。", "index": 6978}
{"en": "Yet, try as they might, scientists never could confirm the hypothesis.", "zh": "但尽管竭尽全力，这一假设却永远无法被科学家们证实。", "index": 6979}
{"en": "They could not track down phlogiston for the same reason that economists today cannot offer a measure of actual utility.", "zh": "化学家无法证明燃素的存在，同理今天的经济学家也无法测量实际效用。", "index": 6980}
{"en": "Economists use the concept of utility to explain why people make the choices they do – what to buy, where to invest, how hard to work: everyone is trying to maximize utility in accordance with one’s preferences and beliefs about the world, and within the limits posed by scarce income or resources.", "zh": "经济学家利用效用的概念来解释人们作出选择的原因 — — 买什么、投资什么，工作多努力：每个人都试图根据自身关于世界的偏好和信念来实现效用最大化，同时也要受到收入和资源稀缺所带来的局限。", "index": 6981}
{"en": "Despite not existing, utility is a powerful construct.", "zh": "尽管并不存在，但效用却是一种强势结构。", "index": 6982}
{"en": "It seems only natural to suppose that everyone is trying to do as well as they can for themselves.", "zh": "人们似乎自然而然地认为，每个人都在尽一切可能为自己的利益打算。", "index": 6983}
{"en": "Moreover, economists’ notion of utility is born of classical utilitarianism, which aims to secure the greatest amount of good for the greatest number of people.", "zh": "此外，经济学家的实用概念源于古典功利主义，而为最多人获取最大的利益是古典功利主义的目标。", "index": 6984}
{"en": "Like modern economists following in the footsteps of John Stuart Mill, most of those designing algorithms are utilitarians who believe that if a “good” is known, then it can be maximized.", "zh": "正如现代经济学家追随约翰·斯图尔特·密尔的脚步一样，绝大多数算法设计者都是功利主义者，他们相信如果知道有“好处 ” ， 那么就可以将好处最大化。", "index": 6985}
{"en": "But this assumption can produce troubling outcomes.", "zh": "但这种假设可能造成的结果却会令人不安。", "index": 6986}
{"en": "For example, consider how algorithms are being used to decide whether prisoners are deserving of parole.", "zh": "比如，假设使用算法来决定囚犯是否应当获得假释。", "index": 6987}
{"en": "An important 2017 study finds that algorithms far outperform humans in predicting recidivism rates, and could be used to reduce the “jailing rate” by more than 40% “with no increase in crime rates.”", "zh": "2017年一项重要的研究发现，算法在预测累犯率方面的成效远远高于人类，并且可以用来将“监禁率”降低40%以上，同时“并不导致犯罪率的增加 ” 。", "index": 6988}
{"en": "In the United States, then, AIs could be used to reduce a prison population that is disproportionately black.", "zh": "于是在美国，人工智能可以被用于改变黑人监禁人口不成比例的状况。", "index": 6989}
{"en": "But what happens when AIs take over the parole process and African-Americans are still being jailed at a higher rate than whites?", "zh": "但如果由人工智能接管假释程序后，非洲裔美国人的监禁比例仍然高于白人该怎么办？", "index": 6990}
{"en": "Highly efficient algorithmic decision-making has brought such questions to the fore, forcing us to decide precisely which outcomes should be maximized.", "zh": "高效的算法决策令这些问题脱颖而出，并迫使我们准确地决定究竟应当最大化哪些结果。", "index": 6991}
{"en": "Do we want merely to reduce the overall prison population, or should we also be concerned about fairness?", "zh": "我们是单纯地想要减少总体监禁人口，还是也应当对公平给予恰当的关注？", "index": 6992}
{"en": "Whereas politics allows for fudges and compromises to disguise such tradeoffs, computer code requires clarity.", "zh": "尽管政治可以允许回避和妥协来隐藏这种权衡，但计算机代码却必须清晰明了。", "index": 6993}
{"en": "That demand for clarity is making it harder to ignore the structural sources of societal inequities.", "zh": "这种对清晰的要求使得人们对社会不公平的结构性来源更加难以忽视。", "index": 6994}
{"en": "In the age of AI, algorithms will force us to recognize how the outcomes of past social and political conflicts have been perpetuated into the present through our use of data.", "zh": "在人工智能时代，算法将迫使我们清晰地认识过往社会和政治冲突的结果如何能够通过我们对数据的利用而延续到现在。", "index": 6995}
{"en": "Thanks to groups such as the AI Ethics Initiative and the Partnership on AI, a broader debate about the ethics of AI has begun to emerge.", "zh": "多亏人工智能道德倡议和人工智能合作伙伴等团体，关于人工智能道德更广泛的讨论已经开始出现。", "index": 6996}
{"en": "But AI algorithms are of course just doing what they are coded to do.", "zh": "但人工智能算法当然仅仅是按照编码来工作。", "index": 6997}
{"en": "The real issue extends beyond the use of algorithmic decision-making in corporate and political governance, and strikes at the ethical foundations of our societies.", "zh": "真正的问题不仅仅限于企业和政治治理领域对算法决策的运用，同时也在抨击我们社会的道德基础。", "index": 6998}
{"en": "While we certainly need to debate the practical and philosophical tradeoffs of maximizing “utility” through AI, we also need to engage in self-reflection.", "zh": "在我们当然要对通过人工智能实现效用“最大化”所需的实践和哲学权衡展开辩论的同时，我们也需要进行自我反思。", "index": 6999}
{"en": "Algorithms are posing fundamental questions about how we have organized social, political, and economic relations to date.", "zh": "算法正在提出迄今为止我们如何组织社会、政治和经济关系的根本性问题。", "index": 7000}
{"en": "We now must decide if we really want to encode current social arrangements into the decision-making structures of the future.", "zh": "我们现在必须决定，我们是否真的希望将现有的社会安排编入到未来的决策机制。", "index": 7001}
{"en": "Given the political fracturing currently occurring around the world, this seems like a good moment to write a new script.", "zh": "鉴于目前世界各国正在发生的政治分裂，这似乎是开启全新篇章的最好时机。", "index": 7002}
{"en": "A Better Global Framework to End AIDS", "zh": "一个更好的消灭艾滋病全球框架", "index": 7003}
{"en": "STOCKHOLM, GENEVA – This week, we celebrate the tremendous progress that has been made in the struggle against HIV and AIDS.", "zh": "斯托克霍姆、日内瓦—本周，我们为对抗艾滋病方面所取得的进步而欢呼。", "index": 7004}
{"en": "In many countries with strong health systems, HIV is no longer a death sentence, but a chronic condition.", "zh": "在许多具备强有力的卫生体系的国家，艾滋病早已不再等同于死刑，而只是一种慢性病。", "index": 7005}
{"en": "And Africa has reached a critical milestone: each year, there are now more Africans starting HIV treatment than being infected.", "zh": "非洲也抵达了临界点：如今，每年开始治疗艾滋病的非洲人数量已经超过了被感染人数。", "index": 7006}
{"en": "Still, even as we celebrate, we must also mourn the 1.1 million people who lost their lives to the disease this year.", "zh": "但是，在我们欢呼的同时，仍然要为今年因为艾滋病而丧生的110万人默哀。", "index": 7007}
{"en": "HIV still infects 6,000 people every day, and AIDS remains a leading cause of death among children, adolescents, and women in Africa.", "zh": "每一天都有6,000人感染艾滋病毒，艾滋病也仍然是非洲儿童、青少年和妇女的主要死因之一。", "index": 7008}
{"en": "The movement against AIDS has inspired all of us to help the people who continue to be left behind, and to commit to ending AIDS once and for all.", "zh": "打击艾滋病运动激发我们所有人帮助落后人群，并致力于一劳永逸地消灭艾滋病。", "index": 7009}
{"en": "Fortunately, we already have the know-how, resources, and, crucially, the political momentum to do this; and at the High-Level Meeting on Ending AIDS this year, United Nations member states made ambitious commitments that will put us on the fast track toward our goal.", "zh": "幸运的是，我们已经具备了完成这一目标的知识、资源以及最重要的政治动力；在今年的消灭艾滋病高规格会议上，联合国各成员国做出了雄心勃勃的承诺，这些承诺将让我们走上实现目标的快车道。", "index": 7010}
{"en": "What’s more, in September, Canada hosted a successful financing conference for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, which brought in almost $13 billion, replenishing the Global Fund for 2017-2019.", "zh": "此外，9月加拿大举办了成功的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾全球基金融资会议，筹德近130亿美元资金，足够全球基金2017—2019年的用度。", "index": 7011}
{"en": "Meanwhile, individual countries have increased their domestic investments, and international partners – big and small – have maintained their support, which is how we will reach the $26 billion needed for the global AIDS response in 2020.", "zh": "与此同时，个别国家也增加了国内投资，而国际合作方 — — 不论大小 — — 也保持了支持，我们也因此能够筹足2020年全球艾滋病应对计划所需要的260亿美元资金。", "index": 7012}
{"en": "But funding parts of the global health system is not enough.", "zh": "但为全球卫生体系筹资是不够的。", "index": 7013}
{"en": "The international community must take a more holistic view and reinforce a global-response architecture that features a clear division of labor and seamless cooperation among various stakeholders.", "zh": "国际社会必须采取更加全面的视角，加强全球响应安排，这一安排必须对各利益相关方做出明确的分工和紧密的合作。", "index": 7014}
{"en": "Ultimately, the goal of such a framework must be to support countries’ own health systems, by marshaling public and private actors at all levels in a given country, so that every facility – from the public hospital in the capital to the village clinic – is properly provisioned.", "zh": "说到底，这一安排的目标必然是支持各国自身的卫生体系，方法是引导给定国家的各层次公共和私人行动方，以使所有设施 — — 从首都公立医院到乡村诊所 — — 都有合适的准备。", "index": 7015}
{"en": "Sweden is proud to continue its support for the Global Fund; at the replenishment conference in September, it pledged 2.5 billion krona ($271 million).", "zh": "瑞典为一直支持全球基金而感到骄傲；在9月的筹资会议上，瑞典承诺出资25亿克朗（2.71亿美元 ） 。", "index": 7016}
{"en": "The Global Fund is by far the largest multilateral source of financing for efforts to fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria; but just like the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (now known as Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance), it is part of a global architecture, and relies on a range of partners to deliver aid effectively.", "zh": "全球基金是目前规模最大的遏制艾滋病、结核病和疟疾多边融资源；但正如全球疫苗和免疫联盟（目前称为Gavi，或疫苗联盟 ） ， 它只是更大的全球安排的一部分，依靠各合作方有效提供援助。", "index": 7017}
{"en": "So, if country-level support for other global-health organizations – such as UNAIDS, the World Health Organization, and the UN Development Programme – dries up, continued progress in the fight against HIV and AIDS will be at risk.", "zh": "因此，如果支持其他全球卫生组织 — — 如联合国艾滋病规划署、世界卫生组织和联合国开发规划署等 — — 的国家层面支持干涸，就很难保持打击艾滋病方面的进展。", "index": 7018}
{"en": "Providing the necessary support will require donors to coordinate with one another, so that all parts of the existing architecture for managing global health issues are adequately funded.", "zh": "提供必需的支持需要出资方彼此合作，以使全球卫生问题的当前安排的各个部分都能获得充足的资金。", "index": 7019}
{"en": "This will then ensure that all countries – and, more importantly, all people – receive the support they need.", "zh": "这反过来将确保所有国家 — — 以及更重要的所有人民 — — 都能获得需要的支持。", "index": 7020}
{"en": "UNAIDS is setting a powerful example for international collaboration, by organizing partners around a common 2016-2021 Strategy to end AIDS.", "zh": "联合国艾滋病规划署为国际合作树立了强有力的榜样，它组织各方为消灭艾滋病的2016-2021年战略的共同目标而努力。", "index": 7021}
{"en": "This unique and innovative partnership brings together 11 co-sponsoring UN agencies, each with diverse sector-specific expertise, and mobilizes various government stakeholders.", "zh": "这一独特的创新合作安排集合了11家联合国机构共同出资，它们各自具备多样化的具体部门的专业经验，并动员各大全球利益相关方。", "index": 7022}
{"en": "Partners include business, community, and faith leaders, as well as teachers, judges, members of law enforcement, parliamentarians, and many others outside the health sector whose actions nonetheless affect health outcomes.", "zh": "合作方包括企业、社区和宗教领袖，也包括教师、法官、执法官员、议会议员和许多卫生部门之外但能够影响到卫生结果的人士。", "index": 7023}
{"en": "One of UNAIDS’ tasks is to encourage national governments to keep AIDS high on their public-health agendas, and to invest in joint efforts to end the disease.", "zh": "联合国艾滋病规划署的任务之一是鼓励国家政府将艾滋病列为公共卫生日程重点，并联手投资于消灭这种疾病。", "index": 7024}
{"en": "It is also the only organization with a mandate to set norms and standards for the global response to AIDS, which means that it plays a key role in the current international framework.", "zh": "它是唯一一个拥有制定全球艾滋病应对措施规范与标准的权力的组织，这意味着它在目前的国际安排中起着关键性作用。", "index": 7025}
{"en": "UNAIDS maintains a close partnership with the Global Fund.", "zh": "联合国艾滋病规划署与全球基金保持着紧密合作。", "index": 7026}
{"en": "It has a presence in more than 80 countries, and its regional teams provide technical support and strategic information, which helps the Global Fund direct its grants to the right programs, locations, and populations at sufficient scale.", "zh": "它在80多个国家设有办事处，其地区团队可以提供技术支持和战略性信息，从而有助于全球基金将足够规模的资金投向正确的项目、地区和人口。", "index": 7027}
{"en": "Moreover, it helps to create the social, legal, and political conditions for people to use health services, not least by promoting gender equality and ensuring that populations at higher risk of contracting HIV do not face adverse discrimination.", "zh": "此外，它还有助于为人们创造使用医疗服务的社会、法律和政治条件，手段包括但不限于促进性别平等和确保染艾滋病毒高危人群不会面临歧视。", "index": 7028}
{"en": "UNAIDS engages with civil society at all levels, by leveraging the international AIDS response to promote equality, dignity, and human rights around the world.", "zh": "通过利用国际艾滋病应对计划促进全世界的平等、尊严和人权，联合国艾滋病规划署与各个层面的公民社会进行合作。", "index": 7029}
{"en": "As such, UNAIDS works to expand the political space for – and investment in – civil society.", "zh": "在这些合作中，联合国艾滋病规划署致力于为公民社会扩大政治空间和投资。", "index": 7030}
{"en": "Yet, despite its broad mandate and many functions, UNAIDS lacks adequate resources, which threatens past achievements and future programs alike, and poses a danger to people and communities that depend on the lifesaving support the organization helps facilitate.", "zh": "但是，尽管联合国艾滋病规划署权限广泛，功能齐全，但它缺少足够的资源，这威胁到以往的成就和未来项目，并给依赖该组织帮助提供便利的救命支持的人民和国家带来风险。", "index": 7031}
{"en": "Sweden and UNAIDS will work together to ensure that the international AIDS response continues to transform – and save – lives.", "zh": "瑞典和联合国艾滋病规划署将携手致力于确保国际艾滋病应对措施能够继续改变 — — 并拯救 — — 生命。", "index": 7032}
{"en": "We will safeguard and empower women and girls, and make sure that vulnerable populations’ voices are heard.", "zh": "我们将保护和赋权给妇女和女孩，确保脆弱人口的声音得到聆听。", "index": 7033}
{"en": "But, at the same time, the international community must strengthen the existing framework for managing global-health issues.", "zh": "但是，与此同时，国际社会必须强化管理全球卫生问题的现有框架。", "index": 7034}
{"en": "As Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said in Montreal in September: “Today we are focusing on the Global Fund, but tomorrow let’s not forget to provide sufficient funding for the entire global health architecture.”", "zh": "瑞典首相洛夫文9月在蒙特利尔表示 ， “ 今天我们关注全球基金，但愿我们明天不要忘记为整个全球卫生安排提供充足的资金。", "index": 7035}
{"en": "It is time for the international community to meet that challenge, by pledging to support our global health infrastructure, so that no agency – and no country or person – is left out.", "zh": "”国际社会应该直面这一挑战，承诺支持我们全球卫生基础设施，所有机构 — — 以及所有国家和个人 — — 都要参与进来。", "index": 7036}
{"en": "AIDS, NCDs, and the ABCs of Organizing", "zh": "艾滋病、非传染性疾病和组织学的“ABC”", "index": 7037}
{"en": "GENEVA – Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), like heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, and chronic lung disease, are responsible for 70% of all deaths.", "zh": "日内瓦—非传染性疾病（NCD ） ， 如心脏病、中风、癌症、糖尿病和慢性肺病等，造成了全部死亡案例的70 % 。", "index": 7038}
{"en": "There is incontrovertible evidence that tobacco use, inactivity, unhealthy diets, and excessive alcohol consumption increase the odds of dying prematurely from an NCD.", "zh": "无可反驳的证据证明，吸烟、不运动、不健康饮食和饮酒过度会增加因NCD而过早死亡的风险。", "index": 7039}
{"en": "And yet, despite widespread knowledge of the risks, global obesity goes largely unchecked, while tobacco and alcohol use continue to rise.", "zh": "但尽管这些风险早已众所周知，全球肥胖率仍居高不下，而烟草和酒精消费量在不断增加。", "index": 7040}
{"en": "It is against this backdrop that networks of NCD alliances met December 9-11 at the second Global NCD Alliance Forum, in the United Arab Emirates.", "zh": "在这一背景下，NCD联盟网络于12月9—11日在阿联酋召开了第二届全球非传染性疾病联盟论坛。", "index": 7041}
{"en": "As they search for solutions to bring NCDs under control, they should look for inspiration to the movement to fight AIDS.", "zh": "在我们寻找控制NCD的方法的过程中，应该着眼于消灭艾滋病运动的经验。", "index": 7042}
{"en": "People living with and affected by HIV continue to drive response efforts, and their unique form of mobilization has been instrumental to progress.", "zh": "携带艾滋病毒并受其影响的人不断地推动着响应措施，而他们独特的动员形式也有助于进步。", "index": 7043}
{"en": "While the battle is not over, AIDS activists know that it can be won.", "zh": "尽管革命尚未成功，但艾滋病活跃分子知道胜利一定属于他们。", "index": 7044}
{"en": "Similarly, a mobilized NCD movement can turn the tide against that epidemic.", "zh": "类似地，动员起来的NCD运动能够改变潮流。", "index": 7045}
{"en": "Yet, in 2015, Richard Horton, the editor of The Lancet, described the NCD community as needing an “electric shock to its semi-comatose soul.”", "zh": "但是 ， 《 柳叶刀》杂志编辑理查德·霍顿（Richard Horton）在2015年将说NCD界需要“给你他们的半昏迷的灵魂来一次电击。", "index": 7046}
{"en": "He added: “But who has the courage to deliver it?”", "zh": "”他还说 ， “ 但谁有兴趣来担当电击者？ ”", "index": 7047}
{"en": "We believe there are lessons to be learned from AIDS activists.", "zh": "我们相信，艾滋病活动家的很多经验可以借鉴。", "index": 7048}
{"en": "As global attention focuses on NCD prevention, those seeking to control preventable illnesses should look to the “ABCs” of AIDS organizing for guidance.", "zh": "随着NCD的防治获得全球关注，寻求控制可预防疾病的人应该借鉴艾滋病组织的“ABC ” 。", "index": 7049}
{"en": "The first letter that the NCD community should consider is “A,” for activism.", "zh": "NCD界需要考虑的第一点是A，即活动（activism ） 。", "index": 7050}
{"en": "Anyone over 40 will recall images of AIDS activists performing “die-ins” at scientific meetings around the world.", "zh": "40岁以上的人都能想起艾滋病活跃分子在全球科学会议上的“装死示威 ” 。", "index": 7051}
{"en": "In the United States, AIDS activists took to the streets, even shutting down the Food and Drug Administration’s headquarters for a day in October 1988.", "zh": "在美国，艾滋病活跃分子走上街头，甚至在1988年10月的某日令食品和药品监督局总部关门 。", "index": 7052}
{"en": "Globally, activists lobbied governments and pharmaceutical companies to make medicines more affordable.", "zh": "全球而言，活跃分子游说政府和制药公司降低药品价格。", "index": 7053}
{"en": "This activism continues, and should serve as a model for action on NCDs.", "zh": "这些活动还在继续，并理应成为NCD活动的榜样。", "index": 7054}
{"en": "Next, the NCD community must adopt a bolder approach to budgets – the “B” of the AIDS movement’s strategy.", "zh": "其次，NCD界必须果断推进制定预算（budget ） ， 即艾滋病运动战略中的B。", "index": 7055}
{"en": "Civic organizing and grassroots activism may fuel early energies, but organizing and sustaining a broad-based coalition takes money.", "zh": "公民组织和草根活动或许能够注入早期能量，但组织和维持广大联盟需要资金。", "index": 7056}
{"en": "The AIDS movement was clear about this from the beginning, and lobbied for resources to support its advocacy and accountability effectively.", "zh": "艾滋病运动从一开始就非常明确这一点，并有效地游说资源以支持其主张和责任。", "index": 7057}
{"en": "“C” is for coalitions: the AIDS movement was quick to understand that progress would come only with diverse support.", "zh": "C则是联盟（coalition ） ： 艾滋病运动很快就认识到，只有获得了多样化的支持，才能取得进步。", "index": 7058}
{"en": "Activists established links between people living with HIV and those with other concerns, such as women’s rights, intellectual property, nutrition, and housing.", "zh": "活跃分子建立起艾滋病携带者和其他问题关注者（如女权、知识产权、营养和住房等）之间的联系。", "index": 7059}
{"en": "Issue-specific coalitions and campaigns work best when they bring together government insiders and outsiders, to combine perspectives and expertise.", "zh": "不同问题的联盟和运动，如果能够将政府内部人士和外部人士联合起来，形成观点和专业知识的合力，则能够起到最大的效果。", "index": 7060}
{"en": "The AIDS movement also understood that a holistic response to the epidemic was essential.", "zh": "艾滋病运动还认识到，要让支持得到推广，对于这种传染病必须采取整体响应措施。", "index": 7061}
{"en": "Thus, “D,” the underlying determinants of health, was to draw attention to the interconnectivity of the drivers of challenge.", "zh": "因此，D — — 成功的决定因素（determinant ） — —是要吸引对挑战的联动性的关注。", "index": 7062}
{"en": "For example, lobbying education leaders to keep girls in school longer has contributed to providing young people with the knowledge and agency to make smart decisions about when and with whom to negotiate safe sex.", "zh": "比如，游说教育领袖让女孩读更长时间的书，从而帮助年轻人们获得知识以做出关于何时和和谁谈论安全性行为的明智的决定。", "index": 7063}
{"en": "Similarly, links were forged between groups working on poverty, gender, and nutrition – factors that played a role in driving the AIDS crisis.", "zh": "类似地，致力于贫困、性别和营养问题 — — 这些都是助推艾滋病危机的因素 — — 的相关组织之间也形成了联系。", "index": 7064}
{"en": "NCDs are no less isolated in their causality, and similarly require a multi-sector approach to prevention.", "zh": "NCD的致病原因不是孤立的，同样也要求多管齐下的预防之道。", "index": 7065}
{"en": "Engagement – “E” – was what helped the AIDS movement become so influential.", "zh": "参与（engagement ） — —E — — 给了艾滋病运动巨大的影响力。", "index": 7066}
{"en": "By borrowing from the playbook of the disability rights movement, which championed the mantra “Nothing About Us Without Us,” AIDS advocates demanded representation on the bodies established to address the disease.", "zh": "艾滋病运动支持者借鉴了残疾人权利运动的策略，打出了“我们的事，我们都得参与”的口号，要求在解决疾病问题的机构中拥有自己的代表。", "index": 7067}
{"en": "For example, UNAIDS remains the only United Nations agency with seats on its board for representatives from civil society.", "zh": "比如，联合国艾滋病规划署仍然是唯一一个理事会中有来自公民社会代表的联合国机构。", "index": 7068}
{"en": "This norm is so powerfully embedded in the AIDS movement that it would be almost unthinkable for an AIDS meeting to take place without representation from the community.", "zh": "这一范式被强力嵌入在艾滋病运动中，没有艾滋病携带者代表参与的艾滋病会议几乎是不可想象的。", "index": 7069}
{"en": "Disease prevention movements must also develop persuasive narratives, and “F” – framing the issue – was essential to the AIDS community’s effort to gain support from political leaders.", "zh": "疾病预防运动还必须发展出有说服力的叙事，而F — — 界定（frame）问题 — — 是艾滋病界赢得政治领导人支持的关键。", "index": 7070}
{"en": "In particular, access to AIDS treatment was framed as a matter of economic justice.", "zh": "特别是，获得艾滋病治疗被界定为一个经济正义的问题。", "index": 7071}
{"en": "Framing the narrative this way led to a dramatic reduction in the price of medicines, so much so that more than half of people living with HIV in low- and middle-income countries are in treatment.", "zh": "如此界定叙事令药品价格大幅下降，让一大半中低收入国家的艾滋病携带者能够获得治疗。", "index": 7072}
{"en": "An equally important framing issue for AIDS, which is highly relevant to the NCDs movement, is that of responsibility.", "zh": "一个对艾滋病 — — 对NCD运动也是如此 — — 同样重要的界定问题是责任。", "index": 7073}
{"en": "The AIDS community worked hard to shift the focus from blaming individuals’ lifestyle choices to putting the onus on the state for providing health care and removing legal discrimination.", "zh": "艾滋病界努力让人们的关注焦点从谴责个人生活方式选择转移到要求国家担负提供医疗和消除法律歧视上。", "index": 7074}
{"en": "In the AIDS debate, gender – our movement’s “G” – was a significant focal point.", "zh": "在艾滋病争论中，性别（gender ） — —即我们的运动中的G — — 是一个重要焦点。", "index": 7075}
{"en": "HIV was initially seen as a “gay disease,” and gender identity was embedded in the DNA of the AIDS movement early on.", "zh": "艾滋病一开始被视为“同性恋病 ” ， 而性别身份从一开始就烙印在了艾滋病运动的DNA中。", "index": 7076}
{"en": "Gender dimensions of NCDs are no less important; one only has to consider how alcohol and tobacco are marketed to understand that.", "zh": "NCD的性别问题也同样重要；只要想想酒精和烟草的营销手段便可了解这一点。", "index": 7077}
{"en": "Gender, therefore, must become a focus of NCDs prevention efforts.", "zh": "因此，性别应该成为NCD预防的重点。", "index": 7078}
{"en": "Finally, “H” – human rights – was the bedrock of the AIDS response.", "zh": "最后，H — — 人权（human right ） — —是艾滋病响应机制的基石。", "index": 7079}
{"en": "Campaigns were launched against discrimination in workplaces, schools, and health centers.", "zh": "艾滋病活跃分子发动了反对职场、校园和医院的歧视的运动。", "index": 7080}
{"en": "Strategic litigation helped ensure equality under the law.", "zh": "策略性诉讼帮助确保了法律面前人人平等。", "index": 7081}
{"en": "The AIDS movement refused to hold major conferences in countries with punitive laws against people living with HIV.", "zh": "艾滋病运动拒绝在对携带艾滋病毒的人实施惩罚性法律的国家召开大会。", "index": 7082}
{"en": "The NCD movement could take a similar tack by, for example, refusing to meet in countries that fail to restrict advertising of junk food to children.", "zh": "NCD运动也应该采取同样的策略，比如拒绝在不限制面向儿童的垃圾食品广告的国家召开大会。", "index": 7083}
{"en": "The list of AIDS lessons could continue throughout the alphabet, but ending with “H” is apt, given that human rights drove the response, and should drive the response to NCDs.", "zh": "艾滋病运动的教训可以写全整个字母表，但在H结尾比较合适，因为人权推动了艾滋病响应机制，也应该推动NCD响应机制。", "index": 7084}
{"en": "Poverty, exclusion, and social and economic marginalization put people at higher risk for HIV.", "zh": "贫困、排斥以及社会和经济边缘化让人们更容易感染艾滋病毒。", "index": 7085}
{"en": "It is no different for NCDs.", "zh": "NCD也是如此。", "index": 7086}
{"en": "The early mainstream reaction to the AIDS epidemic was to ask, “Why don’t those people make better choices?”", "zh": "人们对艾滋病的早期主流反应是问“为什么那些人没有做出更好的选择？", "index": 7087}
{"en": "The AIDS movement made clear that that was the wrong question.", "zh": "”艾滋病运动证明了这是一个错误的问题。", "index": 7088}
{"en": "Today, with 70% of the planet at risk of premature death from preventable illnesses, “those people” are many of us.", "zh": "今天，70%的地球人面临因为可预防疾病而过早死亡的风险 ， “ 那些人”就是我们自己。", "index": 7089}
{"en": "The NCD and AIDS communities can learn from one another.", "zh": "NCD和艾滋病界可以互相学习。", "index": 7090}
{"en": "We are a stronger movement when we join forces.", "zh": "当我们加入这股力量之中，就形成了一个更加强大的运动。", "index": 7091}
{"en": "The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of UNAIDS.", "zh": "本文不代表联合国艾滋病规划署观点。", "index": 7092}
{"en": "Aid Works", "zh": "援助是有用的", "index": 7093}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The critics of foreign aid are wrong.", "zh": "纽约—对外部援助的批评是错误的。", "index": 7094}
{"en": "A growing flood of data shows that death rates in many poor countries are falling sharply, and that aid-supported programs for health-care delivery have played a key role.", "zh": "越来越多的数据表明，很多国家贫困人口的死亡率在迅速下降，卫生援助项目居功至伟。", "index": 7095}
{"en": "Aid works; it saves lives.", "zh": "援助是有用的，它能够拯救生命。", "index": 7096}
{"en": "One of the newest studies, by Gabriel Demombynes and Sofia Trommlerova, shows that Kenya’s infant mortality (deaths under the age of one year) has plummeted in recent years, and attributes a significant part of the gain to the massive uptake of anti-malaria bed nets.", "zh": "德莫姆比尼斯（Gabriel Demombynes）和特罗穆勒洛瓦（Sofia Trommlerova）的最新研究表明，近几年来，肯尼亚婴儿（1岁以下）死亡率显著下降，其中很大一部分原因在于防疟疾床帐的大规模使用。", "index": 7097}
{"en": "These findings are consistent with an important study of malaria death rates by Chris Murray and others, which similarly found a significant and rapid decline in malaria-caused deaths after 2004 in sub-Saharan Africa resulting from aid-supported malaria-control measures.", "zh": "这一发现与穆雷（Chris Murray）关于疟疾死亡率的重要研究是是一致的，穆雷发现，2004年以后，非洲撒哈拉以南地区的疟疾致死率出现了显著而快速的下降，其原因在于外部援助所支持的疟疾控制措施。", "index": 7098}
{"en": "Let’s turn back the clock a dozen years.", "zh": "让我们从12年前开始。", "index": 7099}
{"en": "In 2000, Africa was struggling with three major epidemics.", "zh": "2000年，非洲饱受三大传染病的肆虐。", "index": 7100}
{"en": "AIDS was killing more than two million people each year, and spreading rapidly.", "zh": "艾滋病每年夺走200万以上生命，并在快速蔓延。", "index": 7101}
{"en": "Malaria was surging, owing to the parasite’s growing resistance to the standard medicine at the time.", "zh": "由于寄生虫对传统药物的抗药性越来越强，疟疾出现了大爆发。", "index": 7102}
{"en": "Tuberculosis was also soaring, partly as a result of the AIDS epidemic and partly because of the emergence of drug-resistant TB.", "zh": "结核病也在肆虐，一部分是由于艾滋病所致，一部分是因为具有抗药性的结核病的出现。", "index": 7103}
{"en": "In addition, hundreds of thousands of women were dying in childbirth each year, because they had no access to safe deliveries in a clinic or hospital, or to emergency help when needed.", "zh": "此外，每年有数十万妇女在分娩时丧命，因为她们无法在安全的诊所和医院中生产，也得不到所需的紧急救援。", "index": 7104}
{"en": "These interconnected crises prompted action.", "zh": "这些危机刺激了行动。", "index": 7105}
{"en": "The United Nations’ member states adopted the Millennium Development Goals in September 2000.", "zh": "联合国各成员国在2000年9月通过了千年发展目标（MDG ） 。", "index": 7106}
{"en": "Three of the eight MDGs – reductions in children’s deaths, maternal deaths, and epidemic diseases – focus directly on health.", "zh": "在MDG的八大目标中，有三个直接关注卫生状况，即减少儿童夭折、难产致死和传染病致死。", "index": 7107}
{"en": "Likewise, the World Health Organization issued a major call to scale up development assistance for health.", "zh": "类似地，世界卫生组织也大力呼吁加大卫生发展援助力度。", "index": 7108}
{"en": "And African leaders, led by Nigeria’s president at the time, Olusegun Obasanjo, took on the challenge of battling the continent’s epidemics.", "zh": "以时任尼日利亚总统奥巴桑乔为首的非洲领导人接受了与非洲大陆传染病作战的重任。", "index": 7109}
{"en": "Nigeria hosted two landmark summits, on malaria in 2000 and on AIDS in 2001, which were a crucial spur to action.", "zh": "尼日利亚举办了两次标志性峰会，即2000年的疟疾峰会和2001年的艾滋病峰会，这两次峰会在促进采取行动方面居功至伟。", "index": 7110}
{"en": "At the second of these summits, then-UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan called for the creation of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria.", "zh": "在第二个峰会中，时任联合国秘书长安南呼吁建立全球抵抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾基金（Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria ） 。", "index": 7111}
{"en": "The Global Fund began operations in 2002, financing prevention, treatment, and care programs for the three diseases.", "zh": "该全球基金于2002年开始运作，为这三种疾病的预防、治疗和看护提供融资。", "index": 7112}
{"en": "High-income countries also finally agreed to reduce the debt owed by heavily indebted poor countries, allowing them to spend more on health care and less on crippling payments to creditors.", "zh": "高收入国家也最终形成协议，同意免去重债穷国的债务，减轻它们的还债负担，将更多的钱用于卫生项目。", "index": 7113}
{"en": "The United States also took action, adopting two major programs, one to fight AIDS and the other to fight malaria.", "zh": "美国也采取了行动，出台了两大项目，一个针对艾滋病，另一个针对疟疾。", "index": 7114}
{"en": "In 2005, the UN Millennium Project recommended specific ways to scale up primary health care in the poorest countries, with the high-income countries helping to cover the costs that the poorest could not pay by themselves.", "zh": "2005年，联合国千年项目给出了如何增进最穷国家初级卫生保障的具体办法，其中高收入国家应该帮助最穷国家承担后者无法独力承担的成本。", "index": 7115}
{"en": "The UN General Assembly backed many of the project’s recommendations, which were then implemented in numerous low-income countries.", "zh": "联合国大会通过了该项目的多项建议，并开始在多个低收入国家实施。", "index": 7116}
{"en": "Donor aid did start to rise sharply as a result of all of these efforts.", "zh": "在这些努力的推动下，捐赠援助的确出现了蓬勃发展。", "index": 7117}
{"en": "In 1995, total aid for health care was around $7.9 billion.", "zh": "1995年，卫生援助总额约为79亿美元。", "index": 7118}
{"en": "This inadequate level then crept up slowly, to $10.5 billion by 2000.", "zh": "这一远远不够的援助水平缓慢地增加着，2000年上升到了105亿美元。", "index": 7119}
{"en": "By 2005, however, annual aid for health had jumped another $5.9 billion, and by 2010, the total had grown by another $10.5 billion, to reach $26.9 billion for the year.", "zh": "但是，到了2005年，年度卫生援助大涨59亿美元，而到了2010年，援助总额在增加105亿美元，达到了269亿美元。", "index": 7120}
{"en": "The expanded funding allowed major campaigns against AIDS, TB, and malaria; a major scaling up of safe childbirth; and increased vaccine coverage, including the near-eradication of polio.", "zh": "资金的充裕使得抵抗艾滋病、结核病和疟疾的项目得以启动、安全分娩得到了大普及，也增加了疫苗的覆盖面，小儿麻痹症基本上被消灭了。", "index": 7121}
{"en": "Many innovative public-health techniques were developed and adopted.", "zh": "许多创新性卫生技术被开发出来并得到了使用。", "index": 7122}
{"en": "With one billion people living in high-income countries, total aid in 2010 amounted to around $27 per person in the donor countries – a modest sum for them, but a life-saving one for the world’s poorest people.", "zh": "约10亿人口生活在高收入国家中，2010年的援助总额意味着他们人均贡献了27美元 — — 对他们来说算不了什么，但对最贫困人口来说足以救命。", "index": 7123}
{"en": "The public-health successes can now be seen on many fronts.", "zh": "如今，公共卫生领域的诸多方面都可以看到进步。", "index": 7124}
{"en": "Around 12 million children under five years old died in 1990.", "zh": "1990年，有1200万不到5岁的儿童夭折。", "index": 7125}
{"en": "By 2010, this number had declined to around 7.6 million – still far too high, but definitely an historic improvement.", "zh": "到了2010年，该数字下降至760万左右 — — 依然很高，但毫无疑问是历史性的进步。", "index": 7126}
{"en": "Malaria deaths in children in Africa were cut from a peak of around one million in 2004 to around 700,000 by 2010, and, worldwide, deaths of pregnant women declined by almost half between 1990 and 2010, from an estimated 543,000 to 287,000.", "zh": "非洲疟疾儿童致死数量也从2004年的最高峰（���100万）下降至2010年的约70万，而全球孕妇死亡数量在1990—2010年间下降了几乎一半，从543 000降至287 000（估计值 ） 。", "index": 7127}
{"en": "Another $10-15 billion in annual aid (that is, roughly $10-15 more per person in the high-income world), bringing total aid to around $40 billion per year, would enable still greater progress to be made in the coming years.", "zh": "如果年度卫生援助能增加100—150亿美元（即高收入国家居民每人再拿出10—15美元 ） ， 达到每年400亿美元，那么未来几年还能取得更大进步。", "index": 7128}
{"en": "The MDGs for health could be achieved even in many of the world’s poorest countries.", "zh": "卫生相关MDG即使在世界最贫困国家也能够实现。", "index": 7129}
{"en": "Unfortunately, at every step during the past decade – and still today – a chorus of aid skeptics has argued against the needed help.", "zh": "不幸的是，在过去十年所采取的每一个步骤中（现在也不例外 ） ， 总有一群援助怀疑者对必要的援助指手画脚。", "index": 7130}
{"en": "They have repeatedly claimed that aid does not work; that the funds will simply be wasted; that anti-malaria bed nets cannot be given to the poor, since the poor won’t use them; that the poor will not take anti-AIDS medicines properly; and so on and so forth.", "zh": "他们一再声称援助根本没什么效果；援助资金都打了水漂；抗疟疾床帐不能给穷人使用，因为他们根本不会去用；穷人不会正确服用抗艾滋药物；如此等等。", "index": 7131}
{"en": "Their attacks have been relentless (I’ve faced my share).", "zh": "他们的攻击是冷血的（包括对我的攻击 ） 。", "index": 7132}
{"en": "The opponents of aid are not merely wrong.", "zh": "援助的反对者不仅仅是错误的。", "index": 7133}
{"en": "Their vocal antagonism still threatens the funding that is needed to get the job done, to cut child and maternal deaths by enough to meet the MDGs by 2015 in the poorest countries, and to continue after that to ensure that all people everywhere finally have access to basic health services.", "zh": "他们异口同声的反对仍在威胁取得成就所必须的融资 — — 减少婴幼儿死亡从而让最贫困国家在2015年完成MDG以及此后再接再厉确保所有国家所有人民都能获得基本卫生服务都需要资金。", "index": 7134}
{"en": "A decade of significant progress in health outcomes has proved the skeptics wrong.", "zh": "十年来卫生成果的巨大进步已经证明，怀疑者是错的。", "index": 7135}
{"en": "Aid for health care works – and works magnificently – to save and improve lives.", "zh": "卫生援助在拯救生命、改善生活方面是有用的，而且很有用。", "index": 7136}
{"en": "Let us continue to support these life-saving programs, which uphold the dignity and well-being of all people on the planet.", "zh": "让我们继续支持这些生命挽救计划，提升所有地球人的尊严和福利。", "index": 7137}
{"en": "The AIIB and Global Governance", "zh": "亚投行和全球治理", "index": 7138}
{"en": "HONG KONG – Despite official American and Japanese opposition, 57 countries have opted to be among the founding members of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).", "zh": "香港—尽管有美国和日本官方的反对，57个国家选择了成为中国发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行（亚投行）创始成员。", "index": 7139}
{"en": "Regardless of what naysayers believe, this remarkable turn of events can only benefit global economic governance.", "zh": "不管对此持怀疑态度者的观点如何，这一令人瞩目的变局有利于改善全球经济治理。", "index": 7140}
{"en": "According to former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, the AIIB’s establishment “may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system.”", "zh": "美国财政前部长拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）指出，亚投行的成立“也许将以美国失去其全球经济体系担保人地位的时刻被人铭记。", "index": 7141}
{"en": "Asia Development Bank (ADB) President Takehiko Nakao, by contrast, does not believe that there will be a “major change to the world of development finance,” though he conceded that “there can be interpretations as to the symbolic meaning of this.”", "zh": "”相反，亚洲开发银行（亚开行）行长中尾武彦（Takehiko Nakao）则认为亚投行的成立不会导致 “发展金融的重大变化 ， ” 尽管他也承认“对于它的象征意义，可能存在各种解读。 ”", "index": 7142}
{"en": "Who is right will depend largely on the decisions that the AIIB’s top shareholders make regarding its operating structure.", "zh": "谁对谁错在很大程度上取决于亚投行大股东对其运营结构所做的决定。", "index": 7143}
{"en": "So far, the AIIB has not sought to amend the principle that the largest contributor to a multilateral organization gets the largest say in running it.", "zh": "目前，亚投行并没有试图改变一条国际组织通行原则，即多边组织的最大贡献者获得最大的运营话语权。", "index": 7144}
{"en": "Just as the US dominates the World Bank and Europe leads the International Monetary Fund, China will head the AIIB.", "zh": "正如美国主导世界银行、欧洲领导国际货币基金组织（IMF）一样，中国也将主导亚投行。", "index": 7145}
{"en": "This implies a larger global leadership role for China – which the world, including its traditional powers, should welcome.", "zh": "这意味着中国会承担更多的全球领导作用。 全世界，包括其中的传统力量，应该欢迎这一变化。", "index": 7146}
{"en": "After all, global leadership is not just a matter of might; it also reflects the provision of global public goods.", "zh": "毕竟，领导全球并不仅仅是实力问题，它也包括了为全球提供公共品服务。", "index": 7147}
{"en": "When World War II ended, the US, aside from being the world’s leading military and economic power, was the largest provider of such goods, through the Marshall Plan, support for the United Nations, and contributions to the Bretton Woods institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank).", "zh": "二战结束时，美国不但是世界上最强大的军事和经济力量，也是全球公共品服务的最大供应者，美国实施了援助欧洲重建的马歇尔计划，支持了联合国，并为布雷顿森林机构（IMF和世界银行）贡献其力量。", "index": 7148}
{"en": "But massive debts have lately undermined the ability of the US – not to mention Europe and Japan – to continue making such large contributions.", "zh": "但如今，巨大的债务制约了美国 — — 更不用说制约了欧洲和日本 — — 继续做出如此巨大的贡献的能力。", "index": 7149}
{"en": "Fortunately, China is willing and able to fill the gap.", "zh": "幸运的是，中国愿意也有能力填补这个空白。", "index": 7150}
{"en": "In fact, China might have done so within the Bretton Woods institutions, were the distribution of voting rights within them not skewed so heavily toward the incumbents, who still enjoy veto power.", "zh": "事实上，中国本可以在布雷顿森林机构内填补这一空白，但这些机构内部的投票权太过倾向于目前当权的发达国家，它们仍享有否决权。", "index": 7151}
{"en": "For example, China has a 3.8% voting share in the IMF and World Bank, even though it accounts for more than 12% of world GDP.", "zh": "比如，中国在IMF和世界银行中的投票权比例只有3.8 % ， 尽管其占全球GDP比例已高达12%以上。", "index": 7152}
{"en": "The United Kingdom and France – which are one-third the size of China – each have a 4.3% share.", "zh": "英国和法国 — — 经济规模只有中国的三分之一却都拥有4.2%的投票权。", "index": 7153}
{"en": "With the incumbents unwilling to bring China’s voting share in line with its economic might, China had little choice but to launch its own institution.", "zh": "目前的发达国家当权者不愿意给予中国与其经济实力相称的投票权，中国别无选择，只能成立自己的机构。", "index": 7154}
{"en": "But the AIIB has its own objectives, which do not align precisely with those of, say, the World Bank.", "zh": "但亚投行有其自身的、与世界银行等不完全一致的目标。", "index": 7155}
{"en": "Specifically, the bank is a critical element of China’s “one belt, one road” strategy, which encompasses two initiatives: the overland Silk Road Economic Belt, connecting China to Europe, and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, linking China to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.", "zh": "具体而言，亚投行是中国通过“一带一路”战略促进周边国家经济发展的关键要素之一。 “一带一路”战略包括两大工程：连接中国和欧洲的陆上丝绸之路经济带，以及连接中国和东南亚、中东和欧洲的21世纪海上丝绸之路。", "index": 7156}
{"en": "While the US “pivots” to the east, China is pirouetting west, applying the lessons of its development to its trading partners across Eurasia and beyond.", "zh": "在美国向东“转”的同时，中国正在向西迈进，将它的发展经验传播给欧亚地区及之外的贸易伙伴。", "index": 7157}
{"en": "Perhaps the most important of these lessons is that connectivity is vital to economic growth.", "zh": "也许这些经验中最重要的便是连通性（connectivity）对经济增长的关键作用。", "index": 7158}
{"en": "Over the last three decades, the construction of roads, railways, ports, airports, and telecommunications systems in China has fostered trade, attracted investment, and, by linking the country’s land-locked western and southern provinces to its more prosperous coastal areas, helped to reduce regional disparities.", "zh": "在过去三十年中，中国的公路、铁路、机场和通讯系统建设刺激了贸易，吸引了投资，并通过将中国内陆西部和南部省份与更繁荣的东部沿海城市连接起来降低了地区差异。", "index": 7159}
{"en": "China’s Silk Road initiative, which aims to boost prosperity among China’s trading partners largely through infrastructure investment, is a logical next step – one on which China is spending significantly.", "zh": "中国的丝绸之路工程旨在主要通过基础设施投资刺激中国贸易伙伴的繁荣，这是中国发展顺理成章的下一步。 中国正在这方面投入巨资。", "index": 7160}
{"en": "In addition to its initial contribution of up to $50 billion to the AIIB, China has committed $40 billion to its Silk Road Fund, $32 billion to the China Development Bank, and $30 billion to the Export-Import Bank of China.", "zh": "除了给亚投行的500亿美元初始投资，中国还向其丝绸之路基金新注资400亿美元，向国家开发银行新注资320亿美元，向国家进出口银行新注资300亿美元。", "index": 7161}
{"en": "According to estimates by HSBC, the “one belt, one road” initiative could end up costing as much as $232 billion – just under two-thirds of the World Bank’s balance sheet in 2014.", "zh": "根据汇丰银行的估算 ， “ 一带一路”工程最终可能耗资2,320亿美元 — — 几乎相当于2014年世界银行资产负债表规模的三分之二。", "index": 7162}
{"en": "The $100 billion AIIB will play a central role in this effort.", "zh": "资本金预计达到1,000亿美元的亚投行将在其中扮演核心角色。", "index": 7163}
{"en": "Given massive global demand for infrastructure finance – which, according to ADB estimates, will amount to $8 trillion in Asia alone over the next decade – the AIIB should not be considered a threat to the World Bank, the ADB, or other multilateral lenders.", "zh": "根据亚开行的估算，全球基础设施融资需求旺盛，光是未来十年的亚洲就需要8万亿美元。 因此亚投行不应该被视为世界银行、亚开行和其他多边贷款机构的威胁。", "index": 7164}
{"en": "Nonetheless, it will compete with them, owing to its distinctive – and probably more efficient – approach to lending.", "zh": "尽管如���，亚投行将与其他机构展开竞争，因为它的贷款方针不同，也许效率更高。", "index": 7165}
{"en": "In fact, the AIIB’s operations will most likely resemble those of the World Bank in the 1960s, when engineers with hands-on development experience dominated the staff and could design lending conditions that worked for borrowers.", "zh": "事实上，亚投行的经营将更加类似于20世纪60年代的世界银行，由拥有实地发展经验的工程师主导工作团队，可以为借款人设计合适的贷款条件。", "index": 7166}
{"en": "In the late 1980s, the World Bank began to implement the Washington Consensus, pushing for economic and political liberalization, without sufficient regard for local political or economic realities.", "zh": "20世纪80年代末，世界银行开始实施华盛顿共识，追求经济和政治自由化而不再充分考虑地方政治或经济现实。", "index": 7167}
{"en": "The result was conditional lending, with terms – created mostly by policy wonks – that many developing-country borrowers could not meet (at least not without hiring consultants to adjust their official reporting).", "zh": "结果是有条件贷款盛行，而其贷款条件往往由学院派政策专家制定，导致许多发展中国家借款人如果不雇用国际组织顾问调整其官方报告，根本无法满足其规定的贷款条件。", "index": 7168}
{"en": "The acid test of the AIIB’s effectiveness will be its governance model.", "zh": "亚投行成效的严峻考验将是其治理模式。", "index": 7169}
{"en": "One failing of the Bretton Wood institutions is their full-time shareholder boards of directors, which tend to undermine effectiveness by micro-managing and often requesting conflicting lending conditions.", "zh": "布雷顿森林机构的失败之一是它有一个全职股东董事会来代表出资国意愿，该董事会总是因为过度微观管理而破坏项目的效果，并且常常要求互相矛盾的贷款条件。", "index": 7170}
{"en": "The World Bank has wasted far too much time re-organizing itself under various presidents, without recognizing the fundamental problem with its own governance structure.", "zh": "世界银行浪费了太多时间不断由新任行长展开对自身的行政重组，而没有认识到其治理结构的根本性问题。", "index": 7171}
{"en": "Even if the AIIB does not deliver as promised, its establishment is an important reminder that in a fast-changing world, economic governance cannot remain stagnant.", "zh": "即使亚投行没有给出其承诺的结果，其成立也可以作为一个重要的提醒，让我们知道，在快速变化的世界中，经济治理不能停滞不前。", "index": 7172}
{"en": "If Western leaders really do believe in innovation, competition, and meritocracy, they should welcome the AIIB.", "zh": "如果西方领导人真的相信创新、竞争和英才治国，他们就应该欢迎亚投行。", "index": 7173}
{"en": "AIPAC in Decline", "zh": "美以公共事务委员会的衰落", "index": 7174}
{"en": "MADRID – The American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s lobbying power in the United States is undeniable.", "zh": "马德里 — — 在美国，美以公共事务委员会的游说力量不可否认。", "index": 7175}
{"en": "But AIPAC’s supposed ability to control US policy decisions is a Potemkin village myth, cultivated by friends and rivals alike.", "zh": "但该委员会对美国决策所谓的控制力其实不过是盟友和对手共同制造的虚假神话。", "index": 7176}
{"en": "In fact, thanks to Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, AIPAC’s influence is under threat – though Netanyahu himself will be just fine.", "zh": "事实上，虽然以色列总理内塔尼亚胡本人毫发无损，但他的所作所为却对委员会的影响力构成了威胁。", "index": 7177}
{"en": "Claims about AIPAC’s clout have long shaped analysis of US foreign policy.", "zh": "美以公共事务委员会影响力之说一直对美国外交政策分析产生影响。", "index": 7178}
{"en": "For example, Steve Walt and John Mearsheimer, in their notorious essay “The Israel Lobby,” asserted that AIPAC manufactured the Iraq War.", "zh": "比方说，沃尔特·史蒂夫和约翰·米尔斯海默在其臭名昭著的论文“以色列游说势力”中断言该委员会是伊拉克战争的始作俑者。", "index": 7179}
{"en": "But the reality is far less sinister: in that case, AIPAC merely surfed on the pro-invasion wave unleashed by President George W. Bush, with his Messianic urges, and Vice President Dick Cheney, a one-man war lobby.", "zh": "但现实却远没有那么险恶：在伊拉克战争中，美以委员会仅仅是利用了乔治·W·布什总统扮演救世主的冲动和切尼副总统单枪匹马的战争游说所掀起的侵略狂潮。", "index": 7180}
{"en": "The truth about AIPAC – that it is influential, but far from invulnerable – has recently been revealed, both to the public and to the group itself.", "zh": "最近发生的事情令公众和委员会自身看清了其影响力不凡但远非无懈可击的本来面目。", "index": 7181}
{"en": "Having been pushed by Netanyahu into an unwinnable fight against US President Barack Obama’s administration over its nuclear deal with Iran, AIPAC is now crumbling under the weight of its own hubris.", "zh": "因为被内塔尼亚胡推入到一场反对奥巴马政府与伊朗达成核协议的不可能打赢的战争，美以公共事务委员会现在在狂妄自大的重压下摇摇欲坠。", "index": 7182}
{"en": "In fact, AIPAC has never overcome resolute opposition from an American president, particularly in a matter of US national security.", "zh": "事实上，尤其当事关国家安全时，美以委员会从未战胜过美国总统的坚决反对。", "index": 7183}
{"en": "It failed to stop Jimmy Carter from selling F-15 Eagle fighters to Saudi Arabia in 1978, or to prevent Ronald Reagan from supplying AWACS reconnaissance planes to the Saudis three years later.", "zh": "它未能阻止卡特1978年向沙特出售F-15鹰式战斗机，也未能阻止三年后里根将预警侦察机出售给沙特。", "index": 7184}
{"en": "And its 1991 battle with President George H.W. Bush over the linkage of US loan guarantees for Israel with Prime Minister Yitzak Shamir’s support of the 1991 Madrid peace conference – one of Bush’s key legacies – ended in defeat.", "zh": "1991年委员会与乔治·H·W·布什总统就美国以提供贷款担保换取沙米尔总理对1991年马德里和会的支持之争（也是布什最关键的政策之一）同样也以失败而告终。", "index": 7185}
{"en": "Against this background, AIPAC should have known that its attempt, in close cooperation with Obama’s Republican opponents, to block the Iran nuclear deal (one of Obama’s most important achievements) would fail.", "zh": "在此背景下，委员会应该知道它企图联手奥巴马的共和党反对者阻止达成伊朗核协议（奥巴马最重要的成就之一）将不会成功。", "index": 7186}
{"en": "Indeed, Obama even used a tactic similar to that of George H.W. Bush to win the day.", "zh": "事实上，奥巴马甚至采用了与乔治·H·W·布什同样的致胜战术。", "index": 7187}
{"en": "Just as Bush openly denounced the “thousand lobbyists” working the halls of the US Congress against a vital national interest, Obama said in a conference call that his critics “would be opposed to any deal with Iran,” and called out AIPAC’s $20 million advertising campaign against the agreement.", "zh": "就像布什公开谴责“上千名说客”涌入美国国会大厅反对重要的国家利益一样，奥巴马在一次电话会议上说他的反对者“反对与伊朗达成任何协议 ” ， 并点名美以委员会投入2，000万美元宣传资金反对协议的达成。", "index": 7188}
{"en": "He also put AIPAC in the same category as the Republicans who “were responsible” for leading the US into the Iraq war.", "zh": "他还将委员会和共和党人划归一类，指责其应对将美国拖入伊拉克战争负责。", "index": 7189}
{"en": "For AIPAC – which has traditionally relied on a broad coalition of social and political forces in the US that view Israel’s security as both a moral cause and a vital national interest – this is not any old defeat.", "zh": "对一直依靠将以色列安全视为既符合道德又合乎重要国家利益的一系列社会和政治势力的美以公共事务委员会而言，这绝非是一次普通的挫折。", "index": 7190}
{"en": "The Republican-backed crusade against a key agreement negotiated by a Democratic president, with his party’s overwhelming support, has threatened the bipartisan foundations of Israel’s cause in America.", "zh": "由共和党支持的对民主党总统在本党全力支持下所谈关键协议的讨伐已经对以色列美国事业的两党基础构成了威胁。", "index": 7191}
{"en": "Of course, the nuclear deal involved more than just the US and Iran.", "zh": "当然，核协议所涉及的不仅是美国和伊朗。", "index": 7192}
{"en": "AIPAC was opposing an international agreement that six major world powers – China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US – had already signed and that the United Nations had approved.", "zh": "委员会反对的是中、法、德、俄、英、美等世界六大强国已经签署且联合国已经批准的国际协议。", "index": 7193}
{"en": "Even some of Israel’s staunchest supporters in Congress were unlikely to deal a potentially devastating blow to America’s international credibility, and the idea that the negotiating countries would all agree to reopen the talks to produce a “better deal” was sheer fantasy.", "zh": "即使国会中某些以色列最坚定的支持者也不太可能对美国的国际信誉发起毁灭性的打击，认为谈判国家会一致同意重开会谈达成“更好协议”的想法纯属幻觉。", "index": 7194}
{"en": "Yet that is the objective that Netanyahu set for AIPAC.", "zh": "但这就是内塔尼亚胡为委员会设定的目标。", "index": 7195}
{"en": "The row over the Iran deal is bound to be a watershed moment for American Jews, among whom sharp divisions have formed.", "zh": "伊朗协议所引发的分歧注定会成为分裂美国犹太群体的标志性时刻。", "index": 7196}
{"en": "Indeed, the American Jewish Committee 2015 Survey of American Jewish Opinion reports the emergence of “two diverging Jewish sub-communities,” with a growing number of Jews feeling alienated by the organizations that claim to represent them.", "zh": "事实上，美国2015年针对美国犹太人意见的统计调查显示形成了“两个有显著分歧的犹太子群体 ” ， 进而导致越来越多的犹太人感到无法融入声称代表他们利益的组织。", "index": 7197}
{"en": "AIPAC represents a striking anomaly in the life of American Jews.", "zh": "委员会代表美国犹太人生活中突出的反常现象。", "index": 7198}
{"en": "It is increasingly identified with the Republican agenda and Israel’s evangelical Christian supporters, even though polls have repeatedly shown that Jews are America’s most liberal ethnic group.", "zh": "尽管民意调查一再显示犹太人是美国最自由的族群，但委员会却越来越贴近共和党议程和以色列福音派基督教支持者。", "index": 7199}
{"en": "The truth is that American Jews largely opposed the Iraq war.", "zh": "事实是美国犹太人大多反对伊拉克战争。", "index": 7200}
{"en": "They overwhelmingly vote for the Democratic Party.", "zh": "他们压倒性地投票支持民主党。", "index": 7201}
{"en": "They define their religion as moderate and liberal, with many upholding gay rights and abortion, both anathema to evangelical Christians.", "zh": "他们将自身宗教定位为温和自由，不少人崇尚同性恋权利和人工流产，这两者在福音派基督教看来都是一种诅咒。", "index": 7202}
{"en": "The majority of American Jews even support the creation of a Palestinian state.", "zh": "大多数美国犹太人甚至支持建立一个巴勒斯坦国。", "index": 7203}
{"en": "And, although they are far from united on the Iran deal, the agreement’s supporters outnumber its opponents.", "zh": "而且虽然他们对伊朗协议的看法远谈不上一致，但支持协议的人明显多于反对者。", "index": 7204}
{"en": "Much of the blame for the damage that has been done – to AIPAC, American Jewish communities, and even the US political process – falls on Netanyahu.", "zh": "内塔尼亚胡应该对委员会、美国犹太群体甚至美国政治进程所遭受的损失负责。", "index": 7205}
{"en": "But he is unlikely to face retribution for any of it.", "zh": "但他不太可能遭到任何报复。", "index": 7206}
{"en": "On the contrary, the Obama administration has already begun the discussions it promised on upgrading Israel’s strategic capabilities.", "zh": "相反，奥巴马政府已经开始探讨履行其提升以色列战略实力的承诺。", "index": 7207}
{"en": "As Arab countries throughout the Middle East melt down – with increasingly significant spillover effects in the West – Israel continues to represent a stable regional partner for the US.", "zh": "在中东阿拉伯国家相继崩溃对西方影响越来越显著的情况下 — — 以色列将继续扮演美国稳定合伙人的角色。", "index": 7208}
{"en": "More dangerous, Netanyahu could achieve his next goal: preventing a strategic détente between the US and Iran that would enable cooperation in resolving major regional conflicts, from Yemen to Syria.", "zh": "更危险的是，内塔尼亚胡可能会实现他的下一个目标：阻止美国和伊朗缓和战略关系 及解决从也门到叙利亚的主要地区冲突。", "index": 7209}
{"en": "After all, Obama’s victory on the nuclear deal may have been inevitable, but it was far from easy.", "zh": "毕竟，奥巴马在核协议问题上的胜利或许不可避免，但却绝非垂手可得。", "index": 7210}
{"en": "An odd coalition of Iranian radicals, AIPAC, the Saudi-led Sunni alliance, the Israeli government, and US politicians from both parties have already compelled Obama to promise additional sanctions on Iran for its sponsorship of terrorism.", "zh": "由伊朗激进分子、美以公共事务委员会、沙特领导的逊尼派联盟、以色列政府和美国两党政客所组成的奇怪联盟已经迫使奥巴马政府承诺进一步制裁伊朗资助恐怖主义的活动。", "index": 7211}
{"en": "As a result, America’s cold war with Iran is likely to persist.", "zh": "结果是美国与伊朗的冷战可能无法结束。", "index": 7212}
{"en": "The Dawn of Climate-Friendly Air Travel", "zh": "气候友好型航空旅行的黎明", "index": 7213}
{"en": "MONTREAL – As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, demand for air travel is growing, with more than 30,000 new large aircraft expected to take to the skies in the next few years.", "zh": "蒙特利尔—随着世界日益互通，航空旅行需求也在增长，未来几年预计将有超过30,000架新的大飞机上天。", "index": 7214}
{"en": "But if we are to sustain growth in air travel without aggravating global warming, we must quickly reduce aviation-related CO2 emissions, which are substantial and not covered by the Paris climate agreement that more than 190 countries agreed to last December.", "zh": "但如果想要保持航空旅行增长又不加剧全球变暖，就必须迅速降低与航空有关的二氧化碳排放。 与航空有关二氧化碳排放量巨大，并且没有写入去年12月190多个国家达成一致的巴黎气候协定。", "index": 7215}
{"en": "Fortunately, now is the perfect time to decouple aviation emissions from air-travel growth.", "zh": "幸运的是，现在是让航空排放与航空旅行增长脱钩的理想时机。", "index": 7216}
{"en": "Representatives from 191 countries convened in Montreal this week for the 39th Session of the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization; after decades of wrangling, they have agreed to an aviation-specific climate agreement.", "zh": "本周，来自191个国家的代表齐聚蒙特利尔出席第39届联合国国际民用航空组织（ICAO）会议；在经历了几十年的争论后，他们就一项专门针对航空的气候协定达成了一致。", "index": 7217}
{"en": "The new ICAO framework aims for “carbon-neutral growth” in international aviation from 2020 onward, and has as its centerpiece a global market-based measure (GMBM) to help airlines affordably cap their net emissions at 2020 levels.", "zh": "这一新ICAO框架的目标是从2020年开始实现国际航程的“碳中性增长 ” ， 其核心是一项基于全球市场的措施（GMBM ） ， 帮助航空公司以可承受的成本将净排放限制在2020年���平。", "index": 7218}
{"en": "When implemented, it will be the first carbon-emissions cap on a global industry that does not noticeably increase costs for consumers.", "zh": "该措施实施后将是第一项不给消费者带来成本显著上升的全球行业排放上限。", "index": 7219}
{"en": "And airlines will purchase emissions reductions from other economic sectors, thus funneling billions of dollars into low-carbon development around the world.", "zh": "航空公司将从其他经济部门购买减排量，从而引导数十亿美元用于全球低碳发展。", "index": 7220}
{"en": "For the first six years, the new framework will apply only to flights between countries that have voluntarily adopted it, which means that the ICAO will have to encourage adequate participation for the program to be effective.", "zh": "在一开始的六年中，新框架将只适用于自愿接受框架的国家之间的航班，这意味着ICAO必须鼓励足够的参与度以使该计划起到效果。", "index": 7221}
{"en": "This opt-in approach has some critics, but whether a program is categorized as “voluntary” or “mandatory” is beside the point, because international accords generally apply only to the sovereign countries that have decided to join them.", "zh": "这一自主加入方针受到了一些批评，但计划应该被归为“自愿”还是“强制”无关紧要，因为国际协定一般只适用于决定加入其中的主权国家。", "index": 7222}
{"en": "Some 64 countries have already signaled their willingness to sign on to the ICAO agreement, and together they account for nearly 80% of expected growth in CO2 emissions above 2020 levels.", "zh": "有64个国家已经表示愿意在ICAO协定上签字，它们加起来占二氧化碳排放量预期增长超过2020部分的近80 % 。", "index": 7223}
{"en": "That isn’t 100%, but it’s a great start, and we can expect more countries to join when they see others reaping the benefits of low-carbon development.", "zh": "100%固然没有达到，但这是个良好的开端，我们期待更多的国家在看到其他国家收获低碳发展的益处后也能加入。", "index": 7224}
{"en": "The airlines themselves will welcome a coherent global framework that establishes clear and predictable compliance metrics, rather than a regulatory patchwork that differs from country to country and complicates international operations.", "zh": "航空公司自身也将欢迎树立明确可预测的合规标准的一致的全球框架，而不愿面对各国各自为政、让国际经营变得错综复杂的监管拼图。", "index": 7225}
{"en": "To minimize compliance costs – and because environmental sustainability is now a key competitive marker for customers and investors alike – airlines will likely encourage the countries where they do business to participate in the ICAO program.", "zh": "为了实现合规成本最小化 — — 并且因为环境可持续性如今是争夺客户和投资者的关键性竞争市场 — — 航空公司可能会鼓动业务所在国加入ICAO计划。", "index": 7226}
{"en": "The new agreement provides an enormous opportunity to prevent the emission of 2.5 billion tons of CO2 in the first 15 years – the equivalent of taking roughly 35 million cars off the road every year the program is in force.", "zh": "新协定提供了重要机会阻止第一个15年的排放量25亿吨二氧化碳 — — 相当于每年减少3,500万辆汽车。", "index": 7227}
{"en": "The agreement will also spur major manufacturers such as Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, and Embraer – which are already investing in quieter, more fuel-efficient aircraft and efficiency improvements for existing models – to develop cleaner technologies that will allow them to purchase fewer emissions offsets.", "zh": "协定还将刺激波音、空中客车、庞巴迪和巴西航空等主要生产商开发更清洁的技术，从而减少排放抵扣的购买量。 这些公司已经开始投资于更安静、燃料效率更高的飞机，并对现有机型进行改良。", "index": 7228}
{"en": "However, the framework decided in Montreal is not complete, and crucial details need to be worked out quickly so that airlines can begin to plan how they will meet the new environmental targets.", "zh": "但是，在蒙特利尔所确定的框架并不完整，必须加快制定关键细节，以使航空公司能够开始着手规划如何实现新环境目标。", "index": 7229}
{"en": "Developed countries have already offered to help implement the GMBM, which, it is hoped, will pave the way for investments in emerging economies that are becoming new aviation powerhouses.", "zh": "发达国家已经提出了帮助实施GMBM的方案，希望可以扫清投资于正日益成为新航空大国的新兴经济体的道路。", "index": 7230}
{"en": "If the countries can leapfrog over old technologies, they can become new leaders in carbon-smart flying.", "zh": "如果可以跨越旧技术，就能成为碳职能（carbon-smart）飞行的新领导者。", "index": 7231}
{"en": "They should seize the opportunity before them and join the ICAO framework so that their manufacturers have a clear and predictable path forward.", "zh": "它们应该抓住眼前的机会，加入ICAO框架以使其生产商得到明确可预测的前进方向。", "index": 7232}
{"en": "At the Paris climate talks last year, we witnessed the power of global collective action to address climate change.", "zh": "在去年的巴黎气候谈判上，我们看到了全球合作解决气候变化问题的力量。", "index": 7233}
{"en": "No fewer than 187 countries – large and small, developed and developing – announced emissions-reduction targets in the months before the conference, which created the momentum to reach a landmark accord.", "zh": "不少于187个国家 — — 不管大小、是否发达 — — 在会议开始前几个月宣布了减排目标，这位达成里程碑式协定创造了势头。", "index": 7234}
{"en": "With the Paris climate agreement on track to enter into force in the coming months – more rapidly than anyone ever thought possible – we still have that momentum.", "zh": "随着巴黎气候协定距离几个月后生效越走越近 — — 比任何人所预想的都要快 — — 我们仍保持着这一势头。", "index": 7235}
{"en": "The ICAO agreement is the next wave in the international battle against climate change.", "zh": "ICAO协定是对抗气候变化的国际战争的新一波浪潮。", "index": 7236}
{"en": "Together, the two agreements will boost our chances of delivering environmentally sustainable economic growth.", "zh": "这两个协定加起来将增加我们实现环境可持续经济增长的机会。", "index": 7237}
{"en": "By cleaning up our carbon footprint now, future generations of air travelers from all countries will be able to look out their window onto a healthy planet.", "zh": "通过从现在开始明确我们的碳足迹，未来航空旅行者不管来自哪个国家，都能够从舷窗看到健康的地球。", "index": 7238}
{"en": "Europe’s Airpocalypse", "zh": "欧洲空气启示录", "index": 7239}
{"en": "SINGAPORE – European policymakers like to lecture the rest of the world on air pollution.", "zh": "新加坡—欧洲决策者喜欢给世界其他地区上空气污染课。", "index": 7240}
{"en": "Asia, and China in particular, is a favorite target for criticism.", "zh": "亚洲，特别是中国是他们最喜欢的目标。", "index": 7241}
{"en": "Indeed, it sometimes seems as if no major environmental conference is complete without a presentation by European policymakers on their continent’s supposed “best practices,” which the rest of the world should emulate.", "zh": "事实上，有时候，似乎任何大型环境会议缺了欧洲决策者宣讲应该供全世界模仿的欧洲的所谓“最佳实践”都是不完整的。", "index": 7242}
{"en": "When it comes to air pollution, however, Europe might consider doing less talking and more listening.", "zh": "但是，在空气污染问题上，欧洲还是少说多听为妙。", "index": 7243}
{"en": "Air pollution is a growing concern across Europe.", "zh": "空气污染正在日益成为全欧洲关注的问题。", "index": 7244}
{"en": "The World Health Organization has called it the continent’s “single largest environmental health risk,” estimating that 90% of Europe’s citizens are exposed to outdoor pollution that exceeds WHO air-quality guidelines.", "zh": "世界卫生组织称它是“欧洲大陆最大的环境健康风险 ” ， 据估计90%的欧洲公民暴露在超出世卫组织空气质量指导标准的室外污染中。", "index": 7245}
{"en": "In 2010, some 600,000 European citizens died prematurely because of outdoor and indoor air pollution, and the economic costs have been put at $1.6 trillion, roughly 9% of the European Union’s GDP.", "zh": "2010年，大约600,000欧洲公民因为室外和室内空气污染而过早死亡，而经济成本更是高达1.6万亿美元，相当于欧盟GDP的9%左右。", "index": 7246}
{"en": "London and Paris suffer from particularly severe air-quality problems.", "zh": "伦敦和巴黎因为严重的空气质量问题而损失惨重。", "index": 7247}
{"en": "Nitrogen dioxide levels in some parts of London regularly reach 2-3 times the recommended limit.", "zh": "伦敦某些地方的二氧化氮水平有时高达建议上限的2—3倍。", "index": 7248}
{"en": "In the United Kingdom, air pollution kills some 29,000 people a year, putting it second only to smoking as a cause of premature death.", "zh": "在英国，空气污染k每年要杀死29,000人左右，是仅次于吸烟的第二大过早死亡原因。", "index": 7249}
{"en": "Paris may be even worse off; in March, after air-pollution levels surpassed Shanghai’s, the city imposed a partial driving ban and introduced free public transportation.", "zh": "巴黎的情况比伦敦还要糟糕；3月，巴黎空气污染水平超过上海，不得不实施局部限行并推出免费公交。", "index": 7250}
{"en": "Sadly, Europe’s policymakers do not seem up to the challenge.", "zh": "悲哀的是，欧洲决策者似乎并未直面挑战。", "index": 7251}
{"en": "George Osborne, the UK’s chancellor of the exchequer, has argued against British leadership in the fight against climate change.", "zh": "英国财政大臣乔治·奥斯本（George Osborne）反对英国在对抗气候变化中其领导作用。", "index": 7252}
{"en": "“We are not going to save the planet by shutting down our steel mills, aluminum smelters, and paper manufacturers,” he declared in 2011.", "zh": "“我们不会为了拯救地球而关掉我们的轧钢厂、炼铝厂和造纸厂 ， ” 他在2011年说道。", "index": 7253}
{"en": "Osborne is not alone.", "zh": "奥斯本不是一个人。", "index": 7254}
{"en": "With European politicians arguing that introducing environmental safeguards will hurt the EU’s already-weakened economy, it comes as little surprise that measures to limit air pollution fall far short of the mark.", "zh": "欧洲政客认为引入环境保护机制会影响已经相当疲软的欧盟经济，因此，毫不奇怪遏制空气污染的措施远远达不到要求。", "index": 7255}
{"en": "The EU’s proposed standards regulating toxic emissions from coal plants are even less strict than China’s, Greenpeace reports.", "zh": "据绿色和平组织报告欧盟计划采取的限制火电厂有害气体排放的标准甚至还没有中国严格。", "index": 7256}
{"en": "Yet various European politicians have called for watering them down even further, with Hungary suggesting that they be scrapped altogether.", "zh": "但许多欧洲政客还要求进一步降低标准，匈牙利认为应该完全放弃监管。", "index": 7257}
{"en": "To be sure, air pollution levels in Asia are truly worrisome.", "zh": "平心而论，亚洲空气污染水平确实值得担忧。", "index": 7258}
{"en": "The continent is home to nine of the world’s ten most polluted countries, according to Yale University’s 2014 Air Quality Ranking.", "zh": "根据2014年耶鲁大学空气质量排名，世界十大污染最严重国家中有九个位于亚洲。", "index": 7259}
{"en": "New Delhi is ranked as the most polluted city on earth, with air pollution exceeding safe levels by a factor of 60.", "zh": "新德里位列地球城市污染程度榜第一名，空气污染超过安全水平60倍。", "index": 7260}
{"en": "Owing to Beijing’s unhealthy air, foreign companies pay a “hardship bonus” of up to 30% to employees working there.", "zh": "由于北京的空气危害健康，外国公司必须向驻北京员工支付高达30%的“困难费 ” 。", "index": 7261}
{"en": "But at least policymakers in Asia have recognized the problem and are taking steps to address it.", "zh": "但至少亚洲决策者认识到了这一问题，并在采取行动解决它。", "index": 7262}
{"en": "China, for example, has declared a “war on pollution.”", "zh": "比如，中国宣布要打一场“污染之仗 ” 。", "index": 7263}
{"en": "By 2017, Beijing – once dubbed “Greyjing” by the international media – will spend some CN¥760 billion ($121 billion) to combat air pollution.", "zh": "到2017年，曾经被国际媒体戏称为“霾都”的北京将斥资7,600亿元人民币治理空气污染。", "index": 7264}
{"en": "At the heart of China’s measures are improved public transportation, green trade, and a revision of the energy mix.", "zh": "中国的措施的核心是改进公共交通、绿色贸易和改变能源结构。", "index": 7265}
{"en": "The government has decided to install bus stops every 500 meters in city centers, reduce tariffs to 5% or less for a list of 54 environmental goods, and decommission many outdated and inefficient coal plants.", "zh": "政府在市中心每隔500米设立一个公交站点，将54种环境产品的关税下降到5%或以下。", "index": 7266}
{"en": "The share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption is expected to increase to 20% by 2030.", "zh": "非化石燃料占初级燃料消费量的比重到2030年将上升到20 % 。", "index": 7267}
{"en": "These targets are likely to be rigorously implemented, given strong political support from the very top.", "zh": "这些目标有可能得到严格实施，因为它们得到了最高层的强力政治支持。", "index": 7268}
{"en": "Meanwhile, in India, the state governments in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are about to launch the world’s first cap-and-trade schemes for particulates.", "zh": "与此同时，载运毒，古吉拉特、马哈拉施特拉和泰米尔纳德等邦准备实施世界上首个微粒配额和交易机制。", "index": 7269}
{"en": "India’s Supreme Court even suggested an extra charge on privately owned diesel vehicles in New Delhi.", "zh": "印度最高法院甚至建议对新德里私家柴油机动车征收附加费。", "index": 7270}
{"en": "Other parts of Asia are also taking steps to improve air quality.", "zh": "其他亚洲国家也在采取措施改善空气质量。", "index": 7271}
{"en": "Vietnam aims to construct eight urban rail lines in the coming years.", "zh": "越南目标在未来几年中建设八条城市轨道交通线。", "index": 7272}
{"en": "Bangkok, which has been tackling air pollution since the 1990s, has planted 400,000 trees.", "zh": "曼谷从20世纪90年代便开始治理空气污染，种植了400,000株树木。", "index": 7273}
{"en": "And Japan is offering subsidies for hydrogen cars and creating new pedestrian-only areas.", "zh": "日本也采取了氢燃料汽车补贴，开辟新的步行区域。", "index": 7274}
{"en": "Europe, as one of the world’s wealthiest regions, ought to be at the forefront of the effort to promote environmental sustainability.", "zh": "作为世界最富有地区之一的欧洲理应站在促进环境可持续性的最前沿。", "index": 7275}
{"en": "When it comes to air pollution, however, Europe’s policymakers should stop preaching to others and focus on fixing their own problems.", "zh": "但是，在空气污染问题上，欧洲决策者应该停止好为人师，专注于解决自身问题。", "index": 7276}
{"en": "A Japanese Metamorphosis?", "zh": "日本的转型？", "index": 7277}
{"en": "OSAKA – Yesterday’s landslide general-election victory by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) terminated the one-party-dominated system that the catch-all Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has controlled almost without interruption since 1955.", "zh": "大阪 — — 昨天日本民主党（DPJ）在大选中以压倒性优势获胜结束了自民党无所不能的（LDP）一党专政体系，从1955年以后一党专政体系的控制权就一直牢牢掌握在自民党手中。", "index": 7278}
{"en": "For most of the last decade, the DPJ was not seen as a viable alternative to the LDP, although they appeared to form a pseudo-two-party system.", "zh": "过去10年来，尽管伪两党体系已经初见规模，但民主党一直被看作自民党可能的替代党派。", "index": 7279}
{"en": "Twenty years after the Cold War’s end, Japan will at last have a post-Cold War system of government.", "zh": "冷战结束20年后，日本终于即将建立起后冷战时期的政府体系。", "index": 7280}
{"en": "The Japanese public, even now, remains uncertain about the DPJ’s ability to govern and is skeptical of its rosy programs of wealth redistribution, which lack solid funding.", "zh": "即便现在，日本公众仍然对民主党的执政能力和缺乏资金支持的财富再分配的诱人计划持怀疑态度。", "index": 7281}
{"en": "The public is also fully aware that the ideologically fragmented DPJ lacks a pragmatic, coherent foreign and security policy", "zh": "公众也非常清楚在意识形态上壁垒分明的民主党不具备现实、连贯的外交和安全政策。", "index": 7282}
{"en": "Yet the DPJ will form the next government because of public disgust with the LDP.", "zh": "但公众对于自民党的厌恶情绪却使民主党登上了下届政府宝座。", "index": 7283}
{"en": "For the last four years, the LDP had shown itself to be utterly unresponsive to the key issues of popular concern: pensions, unemployment, and the fraying social safety net.", "zh": "四年来，自民党彻底无视公众所关注的养老金、失业和社会安全网损坏等关键性问题。", "index": 7284}
{"en": "Moreover, the LDP was plagued by a string of minor scandals and consistent bungling.", "zh": "此外，自民党还受到一系列丑闻的困扰，并一如既往地表现出拙劣的执政能力。", "index": 7285}
{"en": "The LDP’s need for three different prime ministers in the space of little more than a year made plain that the party’s power nucleus had melted down.", "zh": "自民党在短短一年多的时间里更换三名首相充分说明该党的权力核心已经解体。", "index": 7286}
{"en": "Once in power, the DPJ will immediately confront the massive bureaucracy and entrenched mandarins, which usually sabotage any efforts at administrative reform that threatens their power and vested interests.", "zh": "掌权以后，民主党将立即需要面对庞大的官僚体系和根深蒂固的官僚家族，它们会故意破坏威胁其权力和既得利益的任何行政改革政策。", "index": 7287}
{"en": "Indeed, immediately after the election, the budget estimates for the next fiscal year are due.", "zh": "实际上，这次选举刚刚结束，下一年度的财政预算案就必须提交。", "index": 7288}
{"en": "The figures that will be presented are the result of a lengthy process, in which the bureaucracy closely consulted with LDP.", "zh": "提交的预算数字需要经过繁琐的程序，在此期间需要官僚体系与自民党密切配合。", "index": 7289}
{"en": "So, without breaking the regular budget cycle, the DPJ will be forced to implement not only the supplementary budget drawn up by the LDP, but will also be stuck with next year’s budget, which embodies LDP policies that the DPJ has denounced.", "zh": "因此，如果不打破常规的预算周期，民主党将被迫执行自民党制定的补充预算计划，而且还必须接受下一年度预算，而这份预算恰恰体现了民主党一直声讨的自民党政策。", "index": 7290}
{"en": "As a result, the DPJ has announced plans to revoke the LDP’s guidelines for a ceiling on budget requests so as to formulate its own budget from scratch.  It will also revise the supplementary budget as well.", "zh": "因此，民主党已经宣布废除自民党规则的计划，取消预算申请上限，以便从零开始制定自己的预算计划。 它还将修改补充预算计划。", "index": 7291}
{"en": "But time is short, and few of new DPJ lawmakers possess the legislative experience and budgetary expertise to make that happen.", "zh": "但时间太过短暂，并且没有多少民主党立法人员掌握达到目标所需的立法经验和预算知识。", "index": 7292}
{"en": "To gain control of the mandarins, the DPJ plans to place 100 lawmakers in the ministries’ top leadership, as well as three dozen political appointees to policy staffs in the office of the prime minister.", "zh": "为了控制官僚体系，民主党计划安排100名立法人员担任各部的高层领导，并任命三十六名政治特派员承担首相办公室的政策工作。", "index": 7293}
{"en": "Unfortunately, the DPJ scrapped an LDP-sponsored civil-service reform bill, which would have allowed the DPJ to replace mandarins with an army of political appointees.", "zh": "令人遗憾的是，民主党否决了一项由自民党提出的公务员改革法案，这项法案本可以允许民主党用政治特派员取代官僚家族。", "index": 7294}
{"en": "The DPJ, despite its manifesto, seems unprepared to tame the mandarins, and so may be forced to rely on them.", "zh": "尽管表面上态度坚决，但民主党似乎还没有准备好驯服各级官僚，因此可能最终不得不接受以他们为依托。", "index": 7295}
{"en": "The ascendency of the mandarins is a legacy of Japan’s unique historical development dating back to its early modern period.", "zh": "官僚家族的优越地位可以追溯到日本现代化早期独特的历史发展道路。", "index": 7296}
{"en": "Unlike in Europe, Japan developed its state before building a strong civil society.", "zh": "和欧洲不同的是，日本在强大的公民社会形成之前就已经建立了国家。", "index": 7297}
{"en": "Indeed, full-fledged “society”-building started only after the 1868 Meiji Restoration, which tipped the balance of power definitively in favor of the state.", "zh": "实际上，全方位的“社会”建设在1868年明治维新之后才真正开始，从而导致权力的天平彻底地向国家方向倾斜。", "index": 7298}
{"en": "As a result, the mandarins survived WWII and the postwar American occupation relatively undamaged, and they will strive to survive the DPJ government as well.", "zh": "官僚家族因此相对完好地度过了二战和战后的美国占领，此次他们同样也能安然度过民主党政府的任期。", "index": 7299}
{"en": "They will most likely succeed.", "zh": "他们很有可能再次成功逃脱。", "index": 7300}
{"en": "LDP lawmakers and mandarins developed a routine in which mandarins drafted cabinet-sponsored bills, LDP lawmakers checked the bills, and the two together finalized legislative drafts before they were introduced to the Diet (parliament).", "zh": "自民党立法人员和官僚家族形成了一套常规程序，由官僚家族负责制定内阁法案，立法人员负责审核，再由两者共同拿出最终的决议草案，而后再提交议会表决。", "index": 7301}
{"en": "Since the LDP, recently with a coalition partner, controlled the Diet, the legislative process was simply the interaction between LDP lawmakers and mandarins, centered in the LDP’s headquarters.", "zh": "自从自民党不久前与联盟伙伴共同控制议会以后，立法过程就成了以自民党总部为核心的自民党立法人士和官僚家族之间的互动。", "index": 7302}
{"en": "The Diet’s role was merely pro forma.", "zh": "议会不过起到了形式上的作用。", "index": 7303}
{"en": "Indeed, under the LDP-led one-party-dominant system, this extra-constitutional mechanism became an integral part of Japan’s government polity.", "zh": "实际上，在自民党领导的一党专政制度下，上述宪法外机制已经成为日本政府政体不可分割的组成部分。", "index": 7304}
{"en": "The DPJ government will collide head-on with the mandarins, partly because the party will find it hard to recruit sufficiently qualified policymakers.", "zh": "民主党政府将直接与官僚体系发生碰撞，部分原因是民主党难以招募到足够数量的合格决策者。", "index": 7305}
{"en": "The mandarins have maintained their privileged position in this regard, owing partly to the tax system, which prevents the emergence of non-profit institutions, especially think tanks, where independent policy expertise can be forged.", "zh": "官僚家族在上述领域一直保持着优势地位，这部分需要归功于税收体系妨碍了非营利性机构，特别是智库的产生，而独立的政策知识正需要通过以上渠道获得。", "index": 7306}
{"en": "Moreover, perhaps in anticipation of a change in power, the mandarins have moved forward the annual personnel changes in the major ministries’ top administrative positions.", "zh": "此外，或许是预见到了权力的变化，官僚家族已经推动了主要部委高层行政职务的年度人员更替过程。", "index": 7307}
{"en": "And what of the LDP?", "zh": "那么自民党的境况又将如何？", "index": 7308}
{"en": "Having fallen from power, it will lose its control of the redistribution of government funds.", "zh": "失去权力后，它将无法控制政府资金再分配。", "index": 7309}
{"en": "Unable to pay off its constituencies, disintegration looms, for the LDP has never been a party with entrenched grass-roots support, but instead operates as a machine of power and redistribution through a web of insiders across the country’s industrial sectors, occupational associations, and local communities.", "zh": "如果无法兑现承诺给支持者的好处，就有可能导致分崩离析的结果，因为自民党从来就匮乏根深蒂固的基层民众支持，而是通过与遍布全国的行业部门、职业协会和当地社区的内部人士联网实现对权力和再分配机器的操纵。", "index": 7310}
{"en": "Only by recruiting new blood and reorganizing itself with a solid ideological platform will an LDP comeback be possible.", "zh": "只有通过吸收新鲜血液和重建牢固的意识形态，自民党才有可能重新执政。", "index": 7311}
{"en": "The DPJ has even weaker grass-roots support, so the mandarins will most likely use their standard techniques of divide and rule to cajole the party by teaching it to mimic the LDP in using state money and contracts to underwrite its major constituencies, such as labor unions and other interest groups.", "zh": "民主党的基层支持更为薄弱，因此官僚家族极有可能利用其分而治之的标准策略，诱骗民主党像自民党一样利用国家资金和政府合同来回馈工会和其他利益组织等主要的支持者。", "index": 7312}
{"en": "The birth of the DPJ government can yet be a turning point.", "zh": "民主党政府的诞生仍然可以是一次转折。", "index": 7313}
{"en": "A major power shift in favor of “society” has taken place.", "zh": "一次有利于“社会”的权力转型已经发生。", "index": 7314}
{"en": "If the DPJ can break free of mandarin control by centralizing policy formation in the office of the prime minister, as it intends, Japan can emerge as a more resilient democracy with a full-fledged two-party system and greater willingness to assume an international leadership role.", "zh": "如果民主党能像自己希望的那样通过集中首相办公室的政策制定来摆脱官僚家族的控制，日本就能够成为一个更有活力的民主国家，拥有更加完善的两党制度，也更愿意发挥国际领导作用。", "index": 7315}
{"en": "A Jobless Recovery?", "zh": "失业问题困扰下的复苏？", "index": 7316}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Who will suffer the longest and the most from the implosion in 2008-2009 of Wall Street and the ensuing world recession?", "zh": "剑桥 — — 2008至2009年华尔街风暴和紧接着的全球衰退中，谁会受到最长期、最猛烈的打击？", "index": 7317}
{"en": "Not the bankers and financiers who created the disaster.", "zh": "不是造成这场灾难的银行家和金融家。", "index": 7318}
{"en": "Some financiers, like Bernard Madoff, will go to prison for fraud.", "zh": "某些金融家会因欺诈入狱，例如伯纳德·麦道夫。", "index": 7319}
{"en": "But, although Madoff was only the tip of the iceberg of rampant financial malfeasance, most suspect financiers need not fear arrest, either because their behavior merely skirted the law, or because financial impropriety more subtle than outright fraud is often difficult to prove.", "zh": "但是，尽管麦道夫丑闻只是猖獗的金融违法行为的冰山一角，但大多数有嫌疑的金融家并不需要担心被捕，因为他们的行为只是打了法律的擦边球，或者是因为比彻底的欺诈更微妙的金融不当行为通常很难取证。", "index": 7320}
{"en": "Some bank bosses will retire in shame, but with huge payments to ease their pain – such as the $55 million golden parachute handed to Bank of America’s Ken Lewis, with his, and the £25 million pension bestowed on Royal Bank of Scotland’s Fred Godwin.", "zh": "一些银行老板会在耻辱中下台，但会得到巨额的补偿来缓解他们的痛苦 — — 例如美国银行的肯·刘易斯得到价值5500万美元的“金色降落伞 ” ， 又如苏格兰皇家银行的弗雷德·歌德温得到2500万英镑退休金。", "index": 7321}
{"en": "But, buoyed by government bailout money, guarantees, and low interest rates, many banks have again begun to pay their top managers huge bonuses while fighting vigorously against reforms designed to restrain their risk-taking and compensation.", "zh": "然而，在得到政府紧急融资、担保和低利率的支援后，许多银行又开始给高层管理者支付巨额的奖金，同时强烈地反对旨在限制他们冒险和补偿的改革。", "index": 7322}
{"en": "The big losers from this economic disaster are workers in the advanced countries that bought into the laissez-faire flexibility of American-style capitalism.", "zh": "这场经济灾难的大输家是那些认同美式资本主义放任自流政策的发达国家的工人。", "index": 7323}
{"en": "From 2007 to October 2009, the United States lost nearly eight million jobs, which reduced the employment-population ratio from 63% to 58.5%.", "zh": "从2007年到2009年10月，美国失去了近800万个工作岗位，就业人口率从63%下降到58.5 % 。", "index": 7324}
{"en": "The unemployment rate at the end of 2009 was above 10%, duration of joblessness was the longest since the Great Depression, millions had had their working hours cut, and millions more were too discouraged by a lack of jobs to seek work.", "zh": "2009年底的失业率超过10 % ， 失业状态的持续时间是大萧条以来的最长，数百万人的工作时间缩短，更有数百万人因工作机会的缺乏而失去找工作的勇气。", "index": 7325}
{"en": "Advanced Europe, Canada, and Japan also suffered major job losses that will last for a long time.", "zh": "欧洲的发达国家、加拿大和日本也遭受了严重的失业问题，并且会持续相当长的时间。", "index": 7326}
{"en": "Spain, which allows for widespread temporary contracts, has had the biggest increase in unemployment, because Spanish workers can be fired as quickly as those in the US.", "zh": "允许临时合同广泛存在的西班牙失业率增幅最大，因为西班牙的工人被炒鱿鱼的速度堪比美国工人。", "index": 7327}
{"en": "Some countries – for example, Germany, Sweden, and South Korea – have “hidden” their joblessness by paying firms to keep workers on the payroll.", "zh": "某些国家 — — 例如德国、瑞典和韩国 — — 付钱给公司，让他们留住正式职员，从而“隐藏”了失业问题。", "index": 7328}
{"en": "This can work in the short term, but it cannot be sustained over time.", "zh": "这种做法在短期内可能有效，但不能长期维持。", "index": 7329}
{"en": "From the 1980’s through the mid-2000’s, employment has increasingly lagged GDP in economic recoveries.", "zh": "从上世纪80年代，一直到21世纪第一个十年中叶，就业率的恢复越来越落后于GDP。", "index": 7330}
{"en": "In the US, there was a jobless recovery under President Bill Clinton until the dot.com boom in the latter part of the 1990’s, and there was a jobless recovery under George W. Bush in the wake of the 2001 slowdown.", "zh": "在美国，克林顿总统治下的经济复苏就存在失业问题，直到90年代后半叶网络公司兴起。 2001年经济增长放缓之后，乔治·布什治下的经济复苏也存在失业问题。", "index": 7331}
{"en": "In the early 1990’s, Sweden suffered a huge recession precipitated by a housing bubble and a banking crisis. Its unemployment rate rose from 1.8% in 1990 to 9.6% in 1994, before bottoming out at 5% in 2001.", "zh": "上世纪90年代初，瑞典因房地产泡沫和银行业危机而遭受了一场大规模的衰退，失业率从1990年的1.8%上升到1994年的9.6 % ， 2001年探底后回升，达到5 % 。", "index": 7332}
{"en": "Sixteen years after the crisis, the unemployment rate was 6.2% – more than triple the rate in 1990.", "zh": "这场危机过后16年，失业率达到6.2 % — —是1990年的三倍还多。", "index": 7333}
{"en": "In 1997, Korea suffered not only from the Asian financial crisis, but also from insistence by the US and the International Monetary Fund that it raise interest rates and undertake “Washington Consensus”-style reforms to receive aid.", "zh": "1997年，韩国不但遭受亚洲金融危机的打击，更因美国和国际货币基金组织坚持让其提高利率、执行类似华盛顿共识的改革来获取援助而雪上加霜。", "index": 7334}
{"en": "Employment recovered, but primarily in “non-regular” jobs with limited benefits, low wages, and little job security.", "zh": "就业率恢复了，但主要是靠福利有限、低工资、且几乎没有就业保障的“非正式”工作。", "index": 7335}
{"en": "Inequality in Korea rose from moderate levels to second highest (behind the US) among advanced OECD countries.", "zh": "韩国的贫富差距从中等水平跃升至经合组织发达国家中的第二高（仅次于美国 ） 。", "index": 7336}
{"en": "Weakness in the job market takes a huge toll on economic and personal well-being.", "zh": "就业市场的虚弱对经济的健康和个人的幸福造成了巨大损害。", "index": 7337}
{"en": "Young people seeking their first jobs and experienced workers who lose jobs in a weak job market suffer economic losses that will last their entire lives.", "zh": "在虚弱的就业市场上寻找第一份工作的年轻人和工作经验丰富的失业者受到的经济损失将影响他们的一生。", "index": 7338}
{"en": "Studies of happiness show that unemployment reduces happiness by as much as the loss of a family member.", "zh": "幸福指数的研究表明，失业对幸福感的打击不亚于失去一名至亲。", "index": 7339}
{"en": "It is difficult to see the US re-attaining full employment anytime soon.", "zh": "美国很难在不久的将来重新实现充分就业。", "index": 7340}
{"en": "From 1993 to 1998, the US created millions of jobs, which raised the employment rate by 5.4 percentage points.", "zh": "从1993年到1998年，美国创造了数百万的工作岗位，就业率上升了5.4个百分点。", "index": 7341}
{"en": "If employment began rising at this rate in 2010, it would take until 2015 before it reached its pre-recession level.", "zh": "如果就业率在2010年开始以这个速度上升，要到2015年才能重新达到衰退前的水平。", "index": 7342}
{"en": "And slow recovery in the US will drag down recovery in other advanced countries, reducing their employment as well.", "zh": "美国经济的缓慢复苏将会拖累其他发达国家，降低他们的就业率。", "index": 7343}
{"en": "A long, painful period of high unemployment runs counter to what most experts believed the flexible US economic model would ever produce.", "zh": "漫长而痛苦的高失业率与大多数专家心目中以为灵活的美国经济模式会带来的后果背道而驰。", "index": 7344}
{"en": "From the early 1990’s on, many analysts viewed America’s weak unionization, at-will employment, limited legal job protection, and high job turnover as major factors in achieving a lower unemployment rate than most EU countries.", "zh": "从上世纪90年代初起，许多分析家就把美国松散的工会组织、任意的聘用关系、法律对工作的有限保护、以及频繁的工作变动视为失业率低于大多数欧盟国家的主要因素。", "index": 7345}
{"en": "Many OECD countries initiated various kinds of flexibility reforms in the hope of improving their economies along US lines.", "zh": "许多经合组织国家启动了各种各样的灵活化改革，希望按照美国的模式改善自己的经济。", "index": 7346}
{"en": "The view that flexibility is the key factor in employment is no longer tenable.", "zh": "将灵活性视为保障就业关键因素的观点再也站不住脚了。", "index": 7347}
{"en": "In its 2009 Employment Outlook , the OECD took a hard look at its favored policy reforms and found them deficient in helping countries adjust to a finance-driven recession.", "zh": "经合组织在2009年《就业展望》中仔细审视了他们偏爱的政策改革，结果发现这些改革不足以帮助各国适应金融业引起的衰退。", "index": 7348}
{"en": "According to the OECD, “there does not appear to be any strong reason to expect that recent structural reforms mean that OECD labor markets are now substantially less sensitive to severe economic downturns.”", "zh": "根据经合组织的说法 ， “ 没有有力的理由让人相信近来的结构改革能有效降低经合组织国家劳动力市场对严重经济萎缩的敏感度。 ”", "index": 7349}
{"en": "So the lesson from the recession is clear.", "zh": "经济衰退给我们的教训已经显而易见。", "index": 7350}
{"en": "The weak reed in capitalism is not the labor market, but the financial market.", "zh": "资本主义的弱点不在于劳动力市场，而在于金融市场。", "index": 7351}
{"en": "At worst, labor-market failures impose modest inefficiency costs on society, whereas capital-market failures harm society greatly, with workers, rather than the perpetrators of financial disaster, suffering the most.", "zh": "在最糟糕的情况下，劳动力市场的衰退也只能给社会不大的效率问题，但资本市场的衰退则会极大地损害社会，而受损最严重的是工人，而不是金融灾难的罪魁祸首。", "index": 7352}
{"en": "Moreover, globalization means that the US capital market’s failure spreads misery around the world.", "zh": "而且，全球化意味着美国的资本市场衰退会在全球范围内造成极大影响。", "index": 7353}
{"en": "We owe it to workers victimized by this recession to reinvent finance so that it works to enrich the real economy, instead of enriching only the financiers.", "zh": "我们亏欠因这场衰退而受到伤害的工人，有必要彻底改造金融制度，使之推动真正的经济发展，而不是仅让金融家中饱私囊。", "index": 7354}
{"en": "This means changing the incentives and rules that govern the financial sector.", "zh": "这意味着改变金融部门的激励制度和规则。", "index": 7355}
{"en": "Since other countries’ economies and jobs are also at stake, they owe it to their citizens to press the US to deliver meaningful financial reforms.", "zh": "其他国家的经济和工作岗位同样危如累卵，因此他们为了各自的公民也必须敦促美国进行有意义的金融改革。", "index": 7356}
{"en": "France’s Midsummer Night’s Dream", "zh": "法国的仲夏夜之梦", "index": 7357}
{"en": "PARIS – Bastille Day, the French national holiday, was glorious this year.", "zh": "巴黎—巴士底日是法国的国定假日。 今年，这个日子无比光荣。", "index": 7358}
{"en": "The military parade, dominated by the celebration of “victory” in Mali and the joint participation of African and United Nations troops, had the perfection of a gracious, albeit muscular, ballet.", "zh": "以庆祝马里“胜利”和非洲和联合国军队联合参与为主题的军事游行堪称优美的芭蕾表演 — — 尽管这是肌肉版芭蕾。", "index": 7359}
{"en": "The classical concert that preceded the magisterial fireworks that ended the day was the closest thing to a French version of the Proms in London, mixing light classical and popular songs.", "zh": "那一天的压轴表演是古典音乐会及随后的庄严的火花。 音乐会堪称法国版伦敦逍遥音乐会（Proms in London ） ， 结合了轻古典乐和流行歌曲。", "index": 7360}
{"en": "The Eiffel Tower imbued the evening with its magic.", "zh": "埃菲尔铁塔用它的魔力照耀着这个夜晚。", "index": 7361}
{"en": "Paris, in case anyone had any lingering doubts, remains the capital of the world – or so it seemed for a night.", "zh": "不管你是谁，心存何疑虑，在那个晚上，巴黎仍是世界之都。", "index": 7362}
{"en": "The melancholia that began to seize France many years ago was all but forgotten.", "zh": "缠上法国多年的压抑被忘得一干二净。", "index": 7363}
{"en": "The celebration of the glory of the past, mixed with popular English songs of the present, seemed to indicate renewed national confidence.", "zh": "对昔日荣光的庆祝，伴随着英语流行歌曲和表演，似乎在彰显重生的民族自信。", "index": 7364}
{"en": "What was the meaning of this moment of grace?", "zh": "这一优美时刻有着什么意义？", "index": 7365}
{"en": "Was it purely the product of a collective delusion, an emotional Potemkin village of sorts, encouraged, if not conceived, by the authorities to restore some level of self-assurance among France’s depressed citizens?", "zh": "它只是群体错觉的产物，是当局为了在某种程度上重塑压抑的法国国民的自尊而鼓励（如果不是说服的话）的情感上的波将金村（Potemkin village）吗？", "index": 7366}
{"en": "Even if the positive emotions remain only fleeting (as seems most likely), they were real and palpable.", "zh": "即使积极情绪最终只会消失殆尽（这是最有可能的情形 ） ， 它们也是真实而容易捕捉的。", "index": 7367}
{"en": "The French seemed to be in the mood to celebrate.", "zh": "法国人沉浸在喜庆之中。", "index": 7368}
{"en": "Of course, it could simply have been the weather; a gorgeous summer has finally settled in after a miserable spring.", "zh": "当然，也许原因仅仅是天气 — — 在经历了痛苦的春天后，灿烂的夏天终于到来。", "index": 7369}
{"en": "But it might also have been one of those natural turning points, a collective and spontaneous decision to say: “Enough of depression, let’s move on.”", "zh": "但这或许也是自然转折点之一，是集体性的同时决定 ： “ 受够了压抑，让我们前进吧。", "index": 7370}
{"en": "We French may not be what we used to be, the celebrants seemed to be saying, but we are still much more than people think we are.", "zh": "”庆祝者似乎在说，法国人或许已不再是昔日的法国人，但我们仍比人们所认为的更好。", "index": 7371}
{"en": "We have a great revolutionary past that still conveys universal values – liberty, equality, fraternity – and an army that, as in Mali, continues to make a difference in the world.", "zh": "我们有伟大的革命的过去，这一过去仍在传达普世价值 — — 自由、平等、博爱；我们有军队，马里证明我们的军队仍能给世界带来不同。", "index": 7372}
{"en": "One can draw two lessons from this collective form of escapism.", "zh": "在这一集体逃避现实中，你可以发现两点。", "index": 7373}
{"en": "The first is that, beyond the many layers of depression and distrust in France, there is potential for a new and collective departure.", "zh": "第一点，在法国内部的多重压抑和不信任之外，还有一层潜在的新的集体出发。", "index": 7374}
{"en": "This would require, of course, less cynical political elites who can transcend their petty ambitions and divisions for the sake of the country.", "zh": "当然，这要求有更加坚定的政治精英，为了国家的命运牺牲自己的小野心和小异议。", "index": 7375}
{"en": "The second lesson, even more obvious, is that reality cannot be changed with a simple public spectacle.", "zh": "第二点更加明显，那就是现实不可能因为一场精彩的公共表演而改变。", "index": 7376}
{"en": "France is not Imperial Rome, where panem et circenses made a fundamental difference.", "zh": "法国不是罗马帝国，面包和游戏（panem et circenses）就能造成根本性的不同。", "index": 7377}
{"en": "It is a weakened democracy mired in an economic and social crisis so deep that it verges on becoming an identity crisis.", "zh": "法国是一个削弱了的民主国家，困于深刻的经济和社会危机，站在身份危机的边缘。", "index": 7378}
{"en": "The proof was provided by a third traditional event on Bastille Day, between the morning’s military parade and the evening’s music and fireworks: President François Hollande’s speech to the nation, which took the form of an interview with two prominent journalists.", "zh": "巴士底日的第三项传统节目提供了证明。 这个节目处于上午的军事游行和晚上的音乐和烟花之间：总统奥朗德发表全国演讲，今年的形式是由两名著名记者对他进行采访。", "index": 7379}
{"en": "He, too, was in a reassuring mood.", "zh": "奥朗德也是一副踌躇满志的样子。", "index": 7380}
{"en": "According to Hollande, the economic upturn – la reprise – had just started, and hope was around the corner.", "zh": "在奥朗德看来，经济好转 — — 复苏（la reprise ） — —才刚刚开始，希望的曙光刚刚显现。", "index": 7381}
{"en": "His tone and message had changed.", "zh": "他的语调和说辞发生了改变。", "index": 7382}
{"en": "He was no longer the “normal man” of his election campaign and tenure until now; instead, he tried to present himself, like his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, as a superhero.", "zh": "他不再是竞选期间和就任至今的那个“普通人 ” ； 相反，他试图让自己像他的前任萨科齐，成为超级英雄。", "index": 7383}
{"en": "Of course, given his personality and low public-approval ratings, his address was the least convincing event of the day.", "zh": "当然，从他的人格和低公共支持度看，他的演讲是巴士底日最无说服力的事件。", "index": 7384}
{"en": "Who could have said with certainty that the economic upturn announced by Hollande was real rather than aspirational?", "zh": "谁能拍着胸脯说奥朗德所宣布的经济好转是现实而不是愿望？", "index": 7385}
{"en": "Beyond his message’s wishful thinking, the public’s reaction to the messenger was a mixture of disbelief and indifference.", "zh": "除了奥朗德话中的一厢情愿，公众对奥朗德的反应时不信任和冷漠。", "index": 7386}
{"en": "Seeing the behavior of friends, all French, listening with me to Hollande, I was reminded of another moment.", "zh": "看着和我一起听奥朗德讲话的朋友（都是法国人）的行为，我想起了另一个时刻。", "index": 7387}
{"en": "It was December 31, 1989, and I was in the Soviet Union.", "zh": "那是1989年12月31日，当时我在苏联。", "index": 7388}
{"en": "I had found myself in a restaurant in the old city of Suzdal, listening to President Mikhail Gorbachev’s “New Year wishes.”", "zh": "我在苏兹达尔（Suzdal）老城的一家餐馆，听总统戈尔巴乔夫的“新年祝词 ” 。", "index": 7389}
{"en": "I was moved: The man who symbolized glasnost and perestroika, who had allowed the peaceful emancipation of most of Eastern and Central Europe, was speaking.", "zh": "我感慨万千。 这个象征公开（glasnost）和改变（perestroika ） 、 允许东欧和中欧和平演变的人正在讲话。", "index": 7390}
{"en": "But I was alone in paying attention to him.", "zh": "但我是唯一一个专心听他讲话的人。", "index": 7391}
{"en": "The restaurant’s customers, like my French friends now, could not have cared less.", "zh": "餐馆里的其他食客，就像现在我的法国朋友，对戈尔巴乔夫的讲话一点都不关心。", "index": 7392}
{"en": "Their president had become background noise.", "zh": "他们的总统变成了背景噪声。", "index": 7393}
{"en": "Has Hollande become, in this sense, a French Gorbachev?", "zh": "从这个角度讲，难道奥朗德成了法国的戈尔巴乔夫？", "index": 7394}
{"en": "For the left and the Greens, he is close to being a traitor.", "zh": "对左派和绿党来说，他近乎卖国贼。", "index": 7395}
{"en": "These voters chose him a year ago not only because he was not Sarkozy, but because he incarnated the values of the true left, even if his centrist moderation seemed a bad omen.", "zh": "这些选民一年前之所以选择他，不仅是因为他不是萨科齐，也是因为他是真左翼价值的化身，尽管他的中间道路温和立场并非吉兆。", "index": 7396}
{"en": "Voters of the center or even the center-right are disappointed, too, by their president’s lack of charisma, if not sheer incompetence.", "zh": "中间派选民甚至中右翼也感到失望，因为总统缺乏魅力（如果不是彻底无能的话 ） 。", "index": 7397}
{"en": "After a year of Hollande, France is witnessing a fundamental political revolution.", "zh": "奥朗德上台一年后，法国正在发生根本性的政治革命。", "index": 7398}
{"en": "During the half-century of the Fifth Republic, a bipartisan system of left and right has traditionally prevailed.", "zh": "在第五共和国半个世纪的历史中，左派和右派的两党制已经成为了传统。", "index": 7399}
{"en": "But now France is becoming a country dominated by a “tripartite system” of more or less equal strength: the left, the right, and the extreme right.", "zh": "但如今法国正在变成由“三党制”主宰的国家，左派，右派和极右派或多或少地同样强大。", "index": 7400}
{"en": "If France wants to capitalize on the positive emotions of Bastille Day, it needs much more responsible elites, ready to unite in the fight against unemployment and its causes (lack of competitiveness and labor-market rigidity) and consequences (the rise of populist, non-republican forces).", "zh": "如果法国想利用巴士底日的积极情绪，就需要更负责的精英，准备着为了战胜失业及其原因（缺乏竞争力和劳动力市场僵化）和后果（民粹主义反共和势力崛起）而联合起来。", "index": 7401}
{"en": "What Bastille Day revealed, even briefly and superficially, is that the potential to unite France exists.", "zh": "巴士底日表明 — — 尽管迹象既虚弱又肤浅 — — 团结的法国的潜在力量是存在的。", "index": 7402}
{"en": "But doing so requires more than shallow promises.", "zh": "但这样做需要的不仅仅是流于表面的承诺。", "index": 7403}
{"en": "A Kick-Off for Peace?", "zh": "开启和平", "index": 7404}
{"en": "Yerevan – Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent invitation to Turkish President Abdullah Gul to visit Yerevan to watch a football match together was historic.", "zh": "埃里温 - - 亚美尼亚总统萨尔基相最近邀请土耳其总统居尔访问埃里温一同观看足球赛，这是具有历史意义的事件。", "index": 7405}
{"en": "Given the two countries’ long-strained relations, this visit would have been remarkable at any time.", "zh": "鉴于两国关系长期僵持，这一访问在任何时候都是不同寻常的。", "index": 7406}
{"en": "But coming as it does only one month after the alarming Russian-Georgian confrontation, it may offer real hope that tensions in the volatile Caucasus region can be eased.", "zh": "但是这是在触目惊心的俄国和格鲁吉亚冲突仅仅一个月以后，因此，这次访问也许会给人们确实的希望，也就是高加索地区动荡不安紧张局势可以得到缓解。", "index": 7407}
{"en": "Of course, ancient and difficult issues divide Armenia and Turkey.", "zh": "当然，亚美尼亚和土耳其之间的恩怨由来已久，错综复杂。", "index": 7408}
{"en": "But now is the moment for both countries to put the past aside in order to address their common security concerns.", "zh": "但是现在两国应该摒弃前嫌，处理共同的安全关切。", "index": 7409}
{"en": "In the new context set by the war in Georgia, the urgency of Turkey becoming a real bridge between the nations of the Caucasus is not lost on anyone.", "zh": "格鲁吉亚战争带来了新的环境，因此，人们都清楚土耳其急于想要成为高加索地区国家之间真正的桥梁。", "index": 7410}
{"en": "This expectation is an inevitable consequence of Turkey’s geography and history.", "zh": "这一期望是土耳其的地理和历史所决定的。", "index": 7411}
{"en": "Situated figuratively between modernity and tradition, secularism and Islam, and democracy and tyranny, Turkey also is an actual physical bridge between East and West.", "zh": "土耳其被比喻成为介于现代和传统、世俗和伊斯兰以及民主和专制之间，而且它在地理上也是东西方之间的桥梁。", "index": 7412}
{"en": "For the peoples of the Caucasus, Turkey marks our path to Europe.", "zh": "对于高加索地区的人民而言，土耳其标志着我们通向欧洲的道路。", "index": 7413}
{"en": "It is a NATO member, bordering the three Caucasus republics that have NATO Individual Partnership Action Programs.", "zh": "土耳其是北约成员国，与三个高加索地区国家接壤，这三个国家都有北约单个伙伴行动计划。", "index": 7414}
{"en": "It aspires to join the European Union, and would bring the EU to our three borders, even as we, too, aspire to join one day.", "zh": "土耳其渴望加入欧盟并且将会把欧盟带到我们的三个边境。 甚至我们也渴望有朝一日加入欧盟。", "index": 7415}
{"en": "Indeed, Turkey has never missed an opportunity to present itself as a regional broker.", "zh": "确实，土耳其从来就没有错过机会成为地区调停人。", "index": 7416}
{"en": "Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey proposed the Black Sea Economic Cooperation.", "zh": "苏联解体后，它马上就提议建立黑海经济合作组织。", "index": 7417}
{"en": "This year, as the American-led effort to mediate a Middle East peace settlement began to falter, Turkey took up the job of mediator in both the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the conflict between Syria and Israel.", "zh": "今年，当亚美尼亚主导的中东和平倡议告吹之际，土耳其担当了巴以冲突和叙以冲突之间的调停人。", "index": 7418}
{"en": "Now, in the immediate wake of the Russia-Georgia crisis, Turkey’s leaders have stepped forward once again to take a leadership role in the Caucasus.", "zh": "现在俄国和格鲁吉亚危机刚刚结束，土耳其领导人再次站出来在高加索地区发挥领导作用。", "index": 7419}
{"en": "The world must fervently hope that the Turkish proposal for a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform is more serious and sustained than previous similar efforts.", "zh": "全世界热切希望土耳其提出的高加索稳定和合作平台比以往的类似建议更为严肃认真和持久。", "index": 7420}
{"en": "But, in order to succeed, Turkey must firmly pursue a pledge from all the region’s players to repudiate the use of force in settling their disputes.", "zh": "但是，为了成功，土耳其必须紧紧寻求本地区所有国家的承诺，在解决争端中放弃使用武力。", "index": 7421}
{"en": "If this pledge is adopted and respected, conflicts in the region will be viewed in a wholly different, more tolerant context, marking a historic breakthrough to peace.", "zh": "如果这一承诺获得通过并且尊重，那么，人们就可以完全不同而且更为宽容的眼光来审视这一地区的各种冲突。 这将标志着朝向和平的历史性突破。", "index": 7422}
{"en": "In fact, why not take the idea of such a pact one step further?", "zh": "实际上，为何不把这一协议主张更推进一步呢？", "index": 7423}
{"en": "We in this region can, and I believe should, call for a non-aligned Caucasus, free of security blocs and adversarial alliances.", "zh": "我相信，本地区国家应该而且能够呼吁建立不结盟的高加索地区，没有安全结盟或者敌对联盟。", "index": 7424}
{"en": "After all, security alliances and guarantees only create dividing lines, with their attendant security challenges.", "zh": "毕竟，安全挑战伴随着这些安全联盟和保证，只会制造分歧。", "index": 7425}
{"en": "Our countries and peoples have, throughout history, lived under a common umbrella for far longer than we have been divided.", "zh": "我们的国家和人民在历史上一直生活在一个共同的结构之下，长于分裂的时间。", "index": 7426}
{"en": "Today, we share a common vision of European integration, and it is in this broader context that our conflicts should be resolved.", "zh": "今天，我们共有欧洲联合的愿景。 正是在这一更广大的背景之下我们的冲突才应该得以解决。", "index": 7427}
{"en": "French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visits to Georgia and Russia proved that there is no substitute for Europe insofar as the Caucasus is concerned.", "zh": "法国总统萨尔科奇和德国总理默克尔对格鲁吉亚和德国的访问证明，对于欧洲而言，高加索地区是不可替代的。", "index": 7428}
{"en": "Only Europe can play the role of honest broker in the region’s atmosphere of suspicion and intolerance.", "zh": "只有欧洲才能够在这一地区怀疑和没有宽容的气氛下发挥真正的调停人作用。", "index": 7429}
{"en": "But, at the end of the day, we ourselves must be willing to work toward a region of peace and cooperation.", "zh": "但是最终，我们自己必须愿意努力建立地区和平及合作。", "index": 7430}
{"en": "The Caucasus is too small a space for closed borders and explosive conflicts.", "zh": "高加索地区并不辽阔，难以容得边境封锁和爆炸性冲突。", "index": 7431}
{"en": "Although some of those tensions appear purely bilateral, the Georgian-Russian conflict demonstrates that there is no such thing anymore in this globalized world, and certainly not in this interconnected region.", "zh": "尽管某些紧张局势看似完全是双边的，但是格鲁吉亚和俄国冲突表明，在这一全球化的世界里以及这一相互关联的地区不会有什么双边紧张局势了。", "index": 7432}
{"en": "In fact, real peace in the Caucasus requires two key strategic transformations.", "zh": "实际上，高加索地区的真正和平需要实现两个关键性的战略转变。", "index": 7433}
{"en": "One is a lesson from history: Russia’s strategic interests here cannot be ignored.", "zh": "第一是吸取历史教训。", "index": 7434}
{"en": "To believe and behave otherwise would lead to regional chaos.", "zh": "俄国在这一地区的战略利益不得忽视，否则将会导致地区混乱。", "index": 7435}
{"en": "The other lesson is that Turkey and Armenia cannot remain adversaries forever.", "zh": "第二个教训是土耳其和亚美尼亚不能永远为敌。", "index": 7436}
{"en": "There must be normalization in our relations in order for the Caucasus to coalesce into a functional region.", "zh": "两国关系必须正常化才能让高加索联合成为一个可以运作的地区。", "index": 7437}
{"en": "Ironically, both Russia and the United States recognize that this is in their interest.", "zh": "具有讽刺意味的是，美俄两国都承认这符合它们的利益。", "index": 7438}
{"en": "The Russians view normal relations between Turkey and Armenia as a way to minimize Georgia’s strategic role in the region.", "zh": "俄国认为，土耳其和亚美尼亚关系正常化可以把格鲁吉亚在该地区的战略作用降低到最小程度。", "index": 7439}
{"en": "The US views an opening to Turkey as a way to decrease Armenia’s real and imagined reliance on Russia.", "zh": "美国认为，向土耳其开放可以减少亚美尼亚对俄国实际和想象中的依赖。", "index": 7440}
{"en": "Beyond the emotional impact of President Gul’s visit to Yerevan, real improvement in Turkish-Armenian relations requires opening the two countries’ closed border – the last in Europe.", "zh": "居尔总统访问埃里温除了具有情感上的影响之外，土耳其和亚美尼亚两国关系得到实际改善要求开放两国封闭的边界。 这是欧洲范围内最后封闭的边界。", "index": 7441}
{"en": "Or, for a start, the existing railroad link between the two countries could be made operational.", "zh": "或者作为开始，两国之间现有的铁路连接应当投入运行。", "index": 7442}
{"en": "If this does not happen within the coming weeks and months, then Turkey will have demonstrated that all this was just a show.", "zh": "如果这一点在今后几周或几个月内无法实现，那么，土耳其就会表明这一切都不过是演戏罢了。", "index": 7443}
{"en": "President Gul’s visit does mark a watershed – either as a failure to make history, or as the beginning of a new era.", "zh": "居尔总统的访问的确具有分水岭的意义，而这一分水岭要么是无法创造历史，要么是新时代的开始。", "index": 7444}
{"en": "Truth and Consequences", "zh": "真相与后果", "index": 7445}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The recent re-election of Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos, brings hope to a country seeking to end a half-century of conflict.", "zh": "纽约 — — 不久前哥伦比亚总统胡安·曼努埃尔·桑托斯竞选连任为结束该国半个世纪的冲突带来了希望。", "index": 7446}
{"en": "But, as with so many peace processes, finding a balance between creating a stable accord and acknowledging the terrible injustices that occurred during the conflict can be difficult to achieve.", "zh": "但是像其他众多和平进程一样，在签署稳定协议和承认冲突中发生的可怕的不公正之间找到平衡或许很难做到。", "index": 7447}
{"en": "Many countries and communities, from Nepal to Northern Ireland, have grappled with legacies of ethnic, ideological, or religious division and violence, often with limited success.", "zh": "从尼泊尔到北爱尔兰的很多国家和团体一直在设法解决民族、意识形态、宗教分裂和暴力领域的遗留问题，但成功的先例却少之又少。", "index": 7448}
{"en": "This is frequently the case because the mechanisms established to cope with post-conflict reconciliation, truth, and justice, have proved inadequate.", "zh": "归根结底是因为事实已经证明处理冲突后和解、真相和正义的机制远远不够。", "index": 7449}
{"en": "In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) has made important contributions to truth seeking.", "zh": "在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那，前南问题国际刑事法庭（ICTY）为揭露真相做出了重要贡献。", "index": 7450}
{"en": "But victims complain that its procedures are slow and abstruse; and many Bosnian Serbs are convinced that the tribunal is selective and politically motivated.", "zh": "但受害者抱怨其程序迟缓晦涩；很多波黑塞族相信法庭是有选择性和政治动机的。", "index": 7451}
{"en": "An agreement between Nepal’s government and Maoist guerrillas to establish a truth commission and investigate the “disappeared” was delayed for seven years.", "zh": "尼泊尔政府和毛派游击队之间成立真相委员会调查“失踪人员”的协议被推迟了七年之久。", "index": 7452}
{"en": "When legislators finally enacted the enabling legislation in May 2013, victims were dismayed to discover that the commission would be allowed to recommend amnesties for crimes against humanity, in contravention of international principles and United Nations guidelines.", "zh": "当立法者终于在2013年5月颁布授权法案时，受害者惊惶地发现该委员会居然有权建议赦免反人类罪，这悍然违反了国际原则和联合国准则。", "index": 7453}
{"en": "In Northern Ireland, the Good Friday Agreement, justly acclaimed for staunching the bloodshed and starting reconciliation, has – to the great frustration of victims – run into political resistance over one integral element of the peace process: the establishment of mechanisms to clarify past crimes.", "zh": "北爱尔兰终止流血并启动和解的耶稣受难日协定理应受到赞誉，但令受害者沮丧的是，和平进程的一个组成部分 — — 建立调查过去罪行的机制 — — 遭遇的政治阻力非常之强。", "index": 7454}
{"en": "Peace negotiators understandably fear that criminal accountability for past crimes will threaten their side’s leaders and supporters.", "zh": "和平谈判代表担心追究过去罪行的刑事责任会威胁本方领导人和支持者的安全是有道理的。", "index": 7455}
{"en": "Many have wrongly assumed – based on a misinterpretation of the South African experience – that truth commissions provide a “soft” alternative to justice.", "zh": "很多人基于对南非经验的误解认为真相委员会比法律制裁更加“柔和 ” 。", "index": 7456}
{"en": "As a result, they have willingly incorporated these mechanisms into peace agreements (conveniently ignoring the fact that the victims are forced to choose between seeking justice and learning the truth).", "zh": "他们因此很愿意把上述机制载入和平协定（由此正中下怀地忽略了受害者被迫要在正义和真相间做出选择 ） 。", "index": 7457}
{"en": "Predictably, as truth commissions have become established components of transitional justice, former fighters have become increasingly worried that their reputations and political credibility could be on the line should past crimes ever come to light.", "zh": "可以想见，随着真相委员会成为过渡正义的组成部分，曾经的武装份子越来越担心曝光过去的罪行会影响他们的声誉和政治可信度。", "index": 7458}
{"en": "Seeking the truth can be unsettling and painful for anyone, but it comes with serious consequences for those with reason to fear justice.", "zh": "了解真相对任何人来讲都伴随着不安和痛苦，但却会为那些有理由害怕制裁的人带来严重的后果。", "index": 7459}
{"en": "Indeed, conflict mediation and transitional justice rely on truth commissions as a fundamental building block of peace not because such commissions provide impunity for the worst crimes; on the contrary, they reinforce comprehensive rights-based policies and access to justice.", "zh": "事实上，真相委员会作为冲突调解和过渡司法的和平基础并不是因为其对最恶劣的犯罪行为免于惩罚；恰恰相反，它们落实了以权利为基础的全面的法律和政策。", "index": 7460}
{"en": "As a recent symposium, organized by the Kofi Annan Foundation and the International Center for Transitional Justice, concluded, truth commissions contribute most to peace by reasserting the rule of law, recognizing victims, and supporting institutional reform.", "zh": "不久前由科菲·安南基金会和国际过渡时期司法中心举办的研讨会得出结论，真相委员会通过恢复法治、承认受害者权利和支持机构改革而对和平贡献最大。", "index": 7461}
{"en": "But, in order to succeed, these commissions must be effective, independent, and legitimate.", "zh": "但真相委员会成功的前提是高效、独立、合法。", "index": 7462}
{"en": "Half-measures will not do.", "zh": "仅靠权宜之计不可能实现目标。", "index": 7463}
{"en": "Truth commissions therefore should never be established as “box-ticking” exercises to assuage local public opinion or the international community, as witnessed in Nepal.", "zh": "因此永远也不要像尼泊尔那样让真相委员会沦为缓和当地或国际社会公众舆论的象征性机构。", "index": 7464}
{"en": "Even when broad mandates and functions are established with the best of intentions, truth commissions are often deprived of the necessary resources, leading to further frustration and disillusion.", "zh": "即使划定广泛的任务和职能范围完全出于好意，但真相委员会却往往得不到必要的资源，导致民众进一步信心受挫、理想幻灭。", "index": 7465}
{"en": "Moreover, a commission should not be led or staffed by individuals of questionable integrity, thereby undermining the legitimacy of the process.", "zh": "此外，委员会不应默许品格有问题的人领导或参与，否则可能对程序的合法性构成威胁。", "index": 7466}
{"en": "Above all, truth commissions must be adapted to a country’s particular circumstances.", "zh": "总之，真相委员会必须与国家的具体情况相适应。", "index": 7467}
{"en": "As we have seen in Bosnia, Colombia, Nepal, Northern Ireland, and elsewhere, the nature of conflicts and how they are resolved differ widely; so should their respective commissions.", "zh": "我们已经在波斯尼亚、哥伦比亚、尼泊尔、北爱尔兰和其他国家看到冲突的性质和解决的方法有很大不同；因此各国委员会应当本着因地制宜的原则。", "index": 7468}
{"en": "A “one-size-fits-all” solution ends up fitting no one.", "zh": "“一刀切”的解决方案不适合任何国家。", "index": 7469}
{"en": "It is vital that the details of each case of post-conflict transitional justice are understood and implemented.", "zh": "理解并落实每宗过渡期司法个案的细节非常重要。", "index": 7470}
{"en": "It is all too easy for political leaders to ignore victims or suppress the truth in their quest for a peace deal.", "zh": "在试图签署和平协定时忽视受害者或隐瞒真相是政治领导人最容易犯的错误。", "index": 7471}
{"en": "But recognizing victims’ rights is an indispensable condition for lasting peace.", "zh": "但实现持久和平不可缺少的条件是承认受害者的权利。", "index": 7472}
{"en": "Human suffering and victims’ dignity are too powerful to be erased by others’ political pacts.", "zh": "任何人的政治协定都不能以罔顾人类苦难和受害者尊严为代价。", "index": 7473}
{"en": "Eventually, the past demands its due: justice is not just an ideal; it is an investment in a better future.", "zh": "最后，我们必须总结过去的经验教训：正义不仅是种理想；也是投资于更好的未来。", "index": 7474}
{"en": "Alan Greenspan on Trial", "zh": "审判格林斯潘", "index": 7475}
{"en": "The release of Alan Greenspan’s ghostwritten memoirs The Age of Turbulence has elicited charges that he was not such a great central banker after all.", "zh": "阿兰•格林斯潘由他人捉刀的回忆录《动荡岁月》出版以来，引发了认为他不是一位出色的央行行长的指责。", "index": 7476}
{"en": "Stan Collender of National Journal sees the fingerprints of the White House on these attacks: Greenspan is harshly critical of George W. Bush’s administration, after all, and to attack the credibility of Republican ex-policymakers who are critical of Bush is standard counterpunching for it.", "zh": "National Journal 的Stan Collender在这些攻击当中发现了白宫的影子：毕竟格林斯潘是布什政府的严厉批评者，而对一个对布什持批评态度的共和党前政策制定者的公信力发动攻击是不折不扣的报复手段。", "index": 7477}
{"en": "But what is one to make of the criticisms of Greenspan’s tenure at the Federal Reserve?", "zh": "但对格林斯潘执掌美联储的生涯横加指责又有什么道理呢？", "index": 7478}
{"en": "The indictment contains four counts: that Greenspan wrongly cheered the growth of non-standard adjustable-rate mortgages, which fueled the housing bubble; that he wrongly endorsed Bush’s tax cuts; that he should have reined in the stock market bubble of the 1990’s; and that he should have done the same with the real estate bubble of the 2000’s.", "zh": "这种指责包括四个要点：格林斯潘错误地鼓励了非标准、可变利率按揭贷款的增长，而这就为房产泡沫推波助澜；他错误地执行了布什的减税政策；他本可以遏制1990年代的股市泡沫；他本可以同样地制止本世纪初的不动产泡沫。", "index": 7479}
{"en": "To the first two counts, Greenspan now pleads guilty.", "zh": "对于前两项罪名，格林斯潘供认不讳。", "index": 7480}
{"en": "He says that he did not understand how the growth of non-standard mortgages had lured borrowers and investors into bearing dangerous risks.", "zh": "他说他不明白为什么非标准按揭贷款的增长会诱使借款人和投资人不顾风险趋之若鹜。", "index": 7481}
{"en": "He was, he now says, focusing on how fixed-rate mortgages are relatively bad deals for borrowers in times of low inflation, which was a mistake.", "zh": "现在他说当时错误地关注了为什么固定利率按揭贷款在低通胀时期对借款人而言是不合理的。", "index": 7482}
{"en": "Greenspan also pleads guilty to a mistake in early 2001.", "zh": "格林斯潘还对2001年初的错误认罪。", "index": 7483}
{"en": "He thought that he was giving balanced testimony to Congress on government budget issues.", "zh": "他以为自己就政府预算问题在国会所作的证词是合适的。", "index": 7484}
{"en": "He testified that it is important to run surpluses to pay down the debt, but that surpluses must not be so large that the government winds up owning American industry.", "zh": "他作证说利用盈余偿还债务是重要的。 但财政盈余的规模不能大到使政府最终掌控美国的工业。", "index": 7485}
{"en": "He also testified that tax cuts are better than spending increases to keep surpluses from growing too large, but that uncertainty is enormous, so that any tax cuts should be canceled if they threatened to bring us back to an age of deficits.", "zh": "他还作证说减税比提高支出更能将盈余控制在一定的规模，但同时它也有相当的不确定性，因此任何有可能使我们重回财政赤字时代的减税政策都应该取消。", "index": 7486}
{"en": "Robert Rubin and Kent Conrad warned him that the press would not interpret his testimony as being balanced, and that Congress would interpret it as an excuse to abandon fiscal discipline.", "zh": "罗伯特•鲁宾 和 肯特•康拉德都警告他说新闻界不会认为他的证词是合适的，且国会也会将其理解为一种放弃财政纪律的借口。", "index": 7487}
{"en": "They were right.", "zh": "事情果然被他们言中了。", "index": 7488}
{"en": "Greenspan also pleads guilty to misunderstanding the character of the Bush administration.", "zh": "格林斯潘还承认误解了布什政府的特点。", "index": 7489}
{"en": "He thought that his old reality-based friends from the Ford administration were back in power.", "zh": "他还以为是自己在福特政府的注重现实的老朋友又重新掌权了。", "index": 7490}
{"en": "He thought that he – and Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill – could win the quiet “inside game” for sensible policy without resorting to an “outside game” that would make his reappointment in 2004 unlikely.", "zh": "他以为他—和财政部长保罗•奥尼尔—能够通过兵不血刃的“内部博弈”赢得理智的政策而不用诉诸可能会使他2004年连任失败的“外部博弈 ” 。", "index": 7491}
{"en": "He was wrong.", "zh": "他错了。", "index": 7492}
{"en": "But how serious are these policy-political crimes to which Greenspan now pleads guilty?", "zh": "但这些现在让格林斯潘供认不讳的政策—政治罪行究竟有多严重呢？", "index": 7493}
{"en": "In my view, they are misdemeanors.", "zh": "在我看来，他们只是小过错。", "index": 7494}
{"en": "Against them you have to set what former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers calls Greenspan’s “golden glove” performance at avoiding and minimizing recessions during his years at the Fed.", "zh": "你必须把它们放在被前财长拉里•萨默斯称为格林斯潘的“金手套”表现（即在其执掌美联储的岁月里规避及遏制经济衰退）的背景上来衡量。", "index": 7495}
{"en": "The “felonies” of which Greenspan stands accused are the other two charges: that he should have done more to stop the stock market bubble of the late 1990’s, and that he should have done more to stop the housing bubble of the early 2000’s.", "zh": "对于格林斯潘的两项“重罪”指控是：他本应该更努力地制止1990年代的股市泡沫和本世纪初的房地产泡沫。", "index": 7496}
{"en": "Here, Greenspan holds his ground, and pleads not guilty.", "zh": "而在这两点上，格林斯潘坚定地为自己进行无罪申辩。", "index": 7497}
{"en": "The only way, he says, for the Fed to have kept stock prices in reasonable equilibrium ranges in the late 1990’s would have been to raise interest rates so high that they hit the real economy on the head with a brick.", "zh": "他说，对美联储而言在1990年代末将股价控制在一个合理的平衡区间的唯一办法就是把利率加高到对经济当头一棒的水平。", "index": 7498}
{"en": "Interest rates high enough to curb stock market speculation would also have curbed construction and other forms of investment, raised unemployment, and sent the economy into recession.", "zh": "利率高到足够遏止股市的投机行为，也就会遏制建设和其他形式的投资、提高失业率并使经济陷入衰退。", "index": 7499}
{"en": "To cause a significant current evil in order to avoid a possible future danger when our knowledge is limited and our judgments uncertain is, Greenspan believes, unwise.", "zh": "格林斯潘认为为了规避未来的危险而制造残酷现实的策略在我们所知有限且判断不明的情况下是不明智的。", "index": 7500}
{"en": "In this, he is following a tradition of caution that extends from Edmund Burke to John Maynard Keynes.", "zh": "在这一点上他所遵循的是从伯克到凯恩斯的一贯审慎。", "index": 7501}
{"en": "Greenspan mounts a similar defense concerning the housing bubble.", "zh": "格林斯潘对有关房地产泡沫的指控进行了类似的辩护。", "index": 7502}
{"en": "High construction employment has been good for American workers in the past half-decade – a period that has not produced much good for them.", "zh": "建筑业的高就业率在过去五年以来对美国的工人而言是有利的—这一时期总体上并未给他们带来多收好处。", "index": 7503}
{"en": "Higher interest rates to reduce the housing boom seem, even in retrospect, ill advised if the cost is mass unemployment.", "zh": "用高利率来给过热的房地产市场降温，如果其代价是大规模的失业，那么即便现在回头看来也是不可取的。", "index": 7504}
{"en": "And Greenspan eschews paternalism: he would not assume the role of a regulator telling people that they cannot buy a house even though a lender is willing to finance it.", "zh": "并且格林斯潘还避免家长式的作风：他不想扮演一个告诉人们即便贷方愿意融资也不要买房的监管者角色。", "index": 7505}
{"en": "But Greenspan would have served the country and the world better if he had been somewhat more paternalist in slowing the growth of non-standard adjustable-rate mortgages.", "zh": "但格林斯潘如果在减缓非标准可变利率按揭贷款的增长方面多一点家长式的作风，那么这对美国和世界本应该更好。", "index": 7506}
{"en": "He would have served the country and the world better had he been less of a loyal Republican working the inside game of trying to convince Bush’s political advisors that good policy was important, and more of a nonpartisan steward of America’s long-term fiscal stability.", "zh": "如果他不是那么忠诚的一个共和党人，致力于说服布什的政治顾问们相信良好政策的重要性的内部博弈，而更愿意做一个美国长期稳定财政的非党派伺服者，那么美国和世界也本应该更美好。", "index": 7507}
{"en": "Of course, such a Greenspan would never have been re-appointed.", "zh": "当然，这样的格林斯潘是不会获得连任的。", "index": 7508}
{"en": "All in all, Greenspan served the United States and the world well through his stewardship of monetary policy, especially by what he did not do: trying to stop stock and housing speculation by halting the economy in its tracks.", "zh": "总而言之，格林斯潘在执掌货币政策时对美国和世界还是尽职尽责的，特别是他的有所不为：即试图通过拖慢经济发展来制止股市和房市的投机。", "index": 7509}
{"en": "A Lasting Poison", "zh": "幽灵不散", "index": 7510}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Next year will mark the twentieth anniversary of the collapse of communism in Europe.", "zh": "纽约-明年将迎来共产主义在欧洲垮台20周年。", "index": 7511}
{"en": "Liberated from the complexity of knowing too much about the cruel past, the young people of Eastern Europe’s post-communist generation seem uninterested in what their parents and grandparents endured.", "zh": "不再需要了解过多残酷过去的东欧后共产主义的年轻一代似乎对他们的父辈和祖辈所承受的一切毫无兴趣。", "index": 7512}
{"en": "Yet the recent revelation of the Czech writer Milan Kundera’s presumed complicity in the face of Stalinism is but the latest of the long half-life of a toxic past.", "zh": "然而最近披露捷克作家昆德拉可能曾在斯大林主义时代参与共谋的消息只不过是漫长的痛苦过去最新暴露的一个事例。", "index": 7513}
{"en": "Other examples come to mind: the accusations of collaboration with the secret police raised against Lech Walesa, Romania’s public controversies surrounding Mircea Eliade’s fascist past, and the attacks on the alleged “Jewish monopoly of suffering” which equate the Holocaust with the Soviet Gulag.", "zh": "我还想到了其他类似的例子：瓦文萨被指责曾与秘密警察勾结，罗马尼亚的公众激烈争论米尔恰·伊利亚德曾为法西斯效力的过去，还有对所谓“犹太人承受了所有痛苦”的观点的攻击几乎等同于对苏联劳改营内发生的大屠杀的言论的攻击。", "index": 7514}
{"en": "Friedrich Nietzsche said that if you look in the eye of the Devil for too long, you risk becoming a devil yourself.", "zh": "尼采曾说过如果你盯着恶魔的眼睛时间太久，你自己也可能成为恶魔。", "index": 7515}
{"en": "A Bolshevik anticommunism, similar in its dogmatism to communism itself, has from time to time run riot in parts of Eastern Europe.", "zh": "布尔什维克的反共产主义，与对共产主义本身的教条主义相似，在东欧的各个地区一再地肆虐。", "index": 7516}
{"en": "In country after country, that Manichean mindset, with its oversimplifications and manipulations, was merely re-fashioned to serve the new people in power.", "zh": "在一个接一个的国家，这种要么过于简单化要么进行操纵的二元论心态只不过是重新粉饰来为掌权的新一代服务而已。", "index": 7517}
{"en": "Opportunism has had its share in this, of course.", "zh": "当然在这其中也有机会主义的成分。", "index": 7518}
{"en": "In 1945, when the Red Army occupied Romania, the Communist Party had no more than 1,000 members; in 1989, it had almost four million.", "zh": "当红军于1945年占领罗马尼亚时，共产党的党员还不满1000人；但是在1989年，这一数字达到了将近400万。", "index": 7519}
{"en": "One day after Nicolae Ceausescu’s execution, most of these people suddenly became fierce anticommunists and victims of the system they had served for decades.", "zh": "在处决了齐奥塞斯库后，这些人中的大部分突然变成了激烈的反共产主义者以及他们曾服务了几十年的那个体制的受害者。", "index": 7520}
{"en": "Residual traces of totalitarian thinking can also be found in the hostility to former dissidents like Adam Michnik or Václav Havel, both of whom argued that the new democracies should not exploit resentments or seek revenge, as the totalitarian state did, but instead build a new national consensus to structure and empower a genuine civil society.", "zh": "极权主义思维的残留痕迹依然可以在对亚当·米利尼克或瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔等前持不同政见者的敌意上看到，他们两人都主张新的民主政府不应该像极权主义国家那样制造怨恨或寻求报复，而是应该努力使整个国家一致投入到建设真正的文明社会中来。", "index": 7521}
{"en": "Former generals of the secret police and members of the Communist nomenklatura, untouchable in their comfortable villas and retirements, must derive great pleasure from watching today’s witch hunts and manipulation of old files for immediate political purposes.", "zh": "秘密警察的前任将军以及共产主义党国精英的成员，毫发无损地生活在他们舒适的别墅里过着自由自在的退休生活，在看到今天出于一时的政治目的而进行的政治迫害和对旧档案的操纵时一定会感到非常高兴。", "index": 7522}
{"en": "But the case of Kundera appears different – though no less disturbing.", "zh": "但是昆德拉的这件事似乎有所不同，尽管同样令人不安。", "index": 7523}
{"en": "In 1950, Kundera, then a 20-year-old Communist, reportedly denounced to the criminal police as a Western spy a man he had never met – a friend of his friend’s girlfriend.", "zh": "在1950年，当时还只是一个20岁的共产党员的昆德拉被报道说向刑警告密，称一位他从未谋面的人是一个西方间谍，那个人是他朋友的女朋友的一位朋友。", "index": 7524}
{"en": "The man was later brutally interrogated in a former Gestapo torture facility and spent 14 years in prison.", "zh": "那个人后来在前盖世太保的刑讯室里遭到了残忍的审问，后来被关押了14年。", "index": 7525}
{"en": "Kundera’s name was contained in the investigating officer’s report, which was authenticated after a respected historian discovered it in a dusty Prague archive.", "zh": "昆德拉的名字出现在了调查官员的报告中，一位受人敬重的历史学家在翻阅了尘封在布拉格的档案后对此予以了证实。", "index": 7526}
{"en": "The reclusive Kundera, who immigrated to Paris in 1975, has declared that “it never happened.”", "zh": "1975年移民到巴黎、现在过着隐居生活的昆德拉宣称“这件事从未发生过 ” 。", "index": 7527}
{"en": "Moreover, Czechoslovakia’s fearsome secret police, who had every interest in silencing or compromising the famous dissident writer, never used the incident to blackmail or expose him.", "zh": "此外，捷克斯洛伐克可怕的秘密警察，他们曾采取各种手段是著名的持不同政见的作家闭嘴或者妥协，却从未利用这一事件来讹诈或揭露昆德拉。", "index": 7528}
{"en": "Until more information is forthcoming, both from Kundera and from the authorities, the case will not be solved “beyond reasonable doubt.”", "zh": "在昆德拉本人和政府当局提供更多的信息之前，这件事不可能使人们不“产生合理的怀疑 ” 。", "index": 7529}
{"en": "But if it happened, the case calls for a deeper reflection.", "zh": "但是如果它真发生过，这件事将呼唤我们进行更深层次的思索。", "index": 7530}
{"en": "As far as we know, Kundera never was an informer before or after this incident, and we cannot ignore that he later freed himself from the compulsory totalitarian happiness that communism propagated.", "zh": "据我们所知，昆德拉在这起事件之前或之后从未做过告密者，并且我们不能忘记的是他后来从共产主义所散布的强制的极权主义幸福中逃离了出来。", "index": 7531}
{"en": "Indeed, his case also serves as a reminder that the early 1950’s was the most brutal period of “proletarian dictatorship” in Eastern Europe – a period of great enthusiasm and terrible fear that poisoned the minds and souls of devoted believers, fierce opponents, and apathetic bystanders alike.", "zh": "事实上，他的这件事还让人想起了二十世纪五十年代初是东欧“无产阶级专政”最最残酷的时期，这一时期巨大的热情和可怕的恐惧毒害了虔诚的信仰者、激烈的反对派以及麻木不仁的旁观者的思想和灵魂。", "index": 7532}
{"en": "Moreover, Kundera’s case is hardly unique.", "zh": "此外，昆德拉事件远远不是独此一例。", "index": 7533}
{"en": "In 2006, the Nobel Prize-winning German author Günter Grass’s disclosed that, 60 years earlier, he was, as a teenager, a member of the Waffen-SS.", "zh": "2006年，诺贝尔奖获得者德国作家君特·格拉斯被揭露在60年前，当他还是一个十几岁的孩子的时候，曾是武装党卫队的成员。", "index": 7534}
{"en": "Similarly, a few years ago, the world was shocked to learn that famous Italian writer Ignazio Silone had, in his youth, collaborated with the fascist police.", "zh": "同样地，在几年以前，世界震惊地发现著名的意大利作家纳齐奥·西隆尼在年青的时候曾与法西斯警察勾结。", "index": 7535}
{"en": "Daily life under totalitarianism, be it communist or fascist, was routinely based on a deep duplicity whose effects are longstanding.", "zh": "每天生活在极权统治下，不管是共产主义还是法西斯统治，常常都会陷于深深的双重性中，而这种影响将会是非常深远的。", "index": 7536}
{"en": "I don’t agree with those who say we should not be interested in the dark episodes in the life of a great writer.", "zh": "我不同意那些认为我们不应该对一位伟大作家在黑暗时期的生活感兴趣的说法。", "index": 7537}
{"en": "Why not?", "zh": "为什么不呢？", "index": 7538}
{"en": "We should be interested not for prosecutorial purposes, but in order to gain a more profound understanding of a bloody, demagogical, and tyrannical Utopia – and of human weakness and vulnerability. We may even consider it a rewarding testament to an artist’s ability to overcome his past mistakes and still produce priceless work.", "zh": "我们之所以感兴趣不是为了揭发他，而是为了对一个血腥、蛊惑民心和专制的乌托邦以及人的弱点和脆弱性有更深的理解。 我们甚至可以认为这是对一位艺术家战胜他过去所犯的错误然后依旧推出宝贵作品的能力的有回报的验证。", "index": 7539}
{"en": "But can we justifiably defend morally compromised artists and intellectuals on the basis of their work’s merit, yet condemn ordinary people for often less grave offenses?", "zh": "但是我们是否应该因为他们作品的伟大而无可非议地为那些在道义上妥协的艺术家和知识分子辩解，然而却因为没那么严重的错误而谴责普通的人呢？", "index": 7540}
{"en": "An egregious example of this was the way followers of Romanian philosopher Constantin Noica defended his support for the fascist Iron Guard and his later collaboration with the Communists, while at the same time condemning even a generic cleaning woman for mopping the floors in the offices of the secret police.", "zh": "在这方面一个突出的例子是罗马尼亚哲学家康斯坦丁·诺恰卡的追随者为他支持法西斯铁卫团以及后来与共产党勾结进行辩解，然而与此同时却对甚至只是在秘密警察的办公室拖地板的普通清洁女工大加指责。", "index": 7541}
{"en": "Shouldn’t that cleaner’s drudgery to support her family, children, and her own survival be taken equally into account?", "zh": "那位清洁工为了她的家庭、孩子以及她自己的生存而去做苦工难道不应该同样考虑进去吗？", "index": 7542}
{"en": "Life under totalitarianism was an extreme situation that requires us to apply special, nuanced rules to all the captives of that ordeal.", "zh": "极权主义统治下的生活是一种极端的状况，它要求我们对所有深受其折磨的受害者都适用特殊的、有细微差别的规则。", "index": 7543}
{"en": "In order to understand that epoch, we have to know and carefully judge often ambiguous and overwhelming circumstances, never simplifying a multilayered daily reality for the sake of current political goals.", "zh": "为了理解这一时代，我们必须了解和慎重地判断常常是模糊并且压倒一切的环境，千万不要为了当前的政治目的而把多层面的每天现实的生活简单化。", "index": 7544}
{"en": "If nothing else, in order to forgive, we have to know what we are forgiving.", "zh": "不为别的，哪怕只是为了原谅，我们也必须知道我们原谅的什么。", "index": 7545}
{"en": "In Eastern Europe today, old and young alike stand to benefit from that lesson.", "zh": "在今天的东欧，年长和年青的人都从那个教训中受益。", "index": 7546}
{"en": "Moses wandered with his people in the desert for 40 years, until they had rid themselves of the poisonous slave mentality.", "zh": "摩西和他的百姓曾在沙漠里徘徊了40年，直到他们去除了他们自己有害的奴隶心态。", "index": 7547}
{"en": "The Albanian Miracle", "zh": "阿尔巴尼亚奇迹", "index": 7548}
{"en": "TIRANA – Five years ago, Albania faced a truly ominous situation.", "zh": "发自地拉那 — — 就在五年前，阿尔巴尼亚还在面临着极为危急的局面。", "index": 7549}
{"en": "With Greece and Italy reeling from the euro crisis, remittances and capital inflows were falling and the economy suffered a severe slowdown.", "zh": "由于希腊和意大利遭遇欧元危机，导致该国侨汇和资本流入双双下降，经济严重放缓。", "index": 7550}
{"en": "The fiscal deficit ballooned to over 7% of GDP, financed to a large extent by arrears, as access to external financial markets had collapsed and domestic interest rates were sky high.", "zh": "财政赤字激增至GDP的7％以上，同时进入外部金融市场的渠道崩溃且国内利率高涨，财政在很大程度上只能靠欠款维持。", "index": 7551}
{"en": "In addition, the power distribution company was in both an operational and a financial crisis, unable to pay for the electricity that it was supposed to buy from power generation companies.", "zh": "此外该国的配电企业也处于运营和金融的双重危机之中，因为它无法支付本应从发电企业处购买的电力。", "index": 7552}
{"en": "The arrears of both the government and the power company were fueling an increase in non-performing loans in the banking system.", "zh": "政府和电力公司的拖欠行为导致银行体系中不良贷款大幅增加。", "index": 7553}
{"en": "All the ingredients of a catastrophic outcome were there.", "zh": "这简直是把一场灾难的所有成因都集齐了。", "index": 7554}
{"en": "Fast-forward to the present: the economy is growing at a robust 4.2% rate, led by double-digit export growth in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, energy, tourism, and business services.", "zh": "现在让我们快进到当前：在农业，采矿业，制造业，能源，旅游业和商业服务业分别实现两位数出口增长的带领之下，阿尔巴尼亚经济正以4.2％的强劲势头增长。", "index": 7555}
{"en": "At a time when emerging-market economies as diverse as Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, and South Africa face plummeting currencies and rising interest rates, Albania has its lowest interest rates on record and a strengthening currency.", "zh": "在阿根廷、土耳其，尼日利亚和南非等各不相同的新兴市场经济体都面临着本币汇率暴跌和利率上升之时，阿尔巴尼亚的利率正处于是有史以来最低水平且本币持续升值。", "index": 7556}
{"en": "It now has the lowest sovereign spread for any country in its rating class, indicating that markets think the rating agencies have been asleep at the wheel.", "zh": "该国现在的主权利差在其同一评级等级国家中最低的，表明市场认为评级机构显然太过粗心大意了。", "index": 7557}
{"en": "Once the North Korea of Europe under Communist dictator Enver Hoxha, Albania’s per capita income level is now 25% that of Germany.", "zh": "作为曾经遭遇共产主义独裁者恩维尔·霍查（Enver Hoxha）统治的欧洲朝鲜，阿尔巴尼亚的人均收入水平现在相当于德国的25 ％ 。", "index": 7558}
{"en": "If it can maintain its current growth rate, it will reach Germany’s current income in 32 years.", "zh": "如能够保持目前的增长率，它将在32年后达到德国的当前收入水平。", "index": 7559}
{"en": "At a time when economists are being blamed for all sorts of disappointing outcomes, and multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are accused of failing to advise countries properly, it is refreshing to find that they may not be entirely useless after all.", "zh": "在经济学家因各种令人沮丧的事件而备受指责，而国际货币基金组织和世界银行等多边机构也被批评未能向各国提供恰当建议之时，阿尔巴尼亚令人眼前一亮，让人觉得这些任何机构还是有点用的。 。", "index": 7560}
{"en": "What was the secret of Albania’s turnaround?", "zh": "那么阿尔巴尼亚的转变秘诀是什么呢？", "index": 7561}
{"en": "First, as opposed to many countries that delay action until it is too late, Prime Minister Edi Rama called in the IMF as soon as he got into power in September 2013.", "zh": "首先，在许多国家拖延推诿以致延误时机之时，总理埃迪·拉玛在2013年9月上台后立即致电国际货币基金组织。", "index": 7562}
{"en": "His government then negotiated a program that allowed Albania to gain financial support while it was putting its fiscal house in order.", "zh": "他的政府随后通过谈判达成一项让阿尔巴尼亚可以在整顿本国财政秩序的同时获得财政支持的计划。", "index": 7563}
{"en": "The three-year program ended successfully almost two years ago, and the debt-to-GDP ratio remains on a downward trend.", "zh": "这项为期三年的计划大约在两年前成功结束，债务与GDP的比率依然保持下降趋势。", "index": 7564}
{"en": "This year, it is declining by 2.5% of GDP, while the country is significantly expanding its public investment budget.", "zh": "今年该数值又下降了2.5 ％ ， 即使该国正在大幅扩大其公共投资预算。", "index": 7565}
{"en": "To be able to grow in the midst of fiscal consolidation, something else has to pull the economy forward, typically exports.", "zh": "为了能够在财政整顿过程中实现增长，就需要利用其他因素 — — 特别是出口 — — 去拉动经济。", "index": 7566}
{"en": "And exports are growing in Albania – where I have been leading a Harvard Center for International Development research effort since 2013 – not because of good luck, but thanks to a relentless effort to remove bottlenecks and seize opportunities.", "zh": "自2013年以来一直领导哈佛大学国际发展研究中心阿尔巴尼亚研究项目的经验告诉我：这个国家的出口增长并不是因为运气，而是因为人们在不遗余力地消除瓶颈并抓住机遇。", "index": 7567}
{"en": "In the process, Albania eschewed the temptation to focus on general Doing Business indicators, which assume that randomly following international best practices might do some good.", "zh": "在这一过程中，阿尔巴尼亚避开了集中关注某些通用性营商环境指标的诱惑，这些指标假设随机选定并遵循某些国际最佳实践就能收获某些成果。", "index": 7568}
{"en": "Instead, the authorities followed a diagnostic approach to prioritize their policies.", "zh": "相反，当局采用了一种诊断式手段来确定其政策的优先顺序。", "index": 7569}
{"en": "Mentored by Matt Andrews of Harvard Kennedy School of Government, policymakers used an implementation strategy based on a problem-driven iterative process, which starts by nominating a problem, identifying its causes, and devising ways to fix it.", "zh": "在哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授马特·安德鲁斯（Matt Andrews）的指导下，政策制定者使用了一个基于问题驱动型迭代进程的实施策略，该进程首先提出问题，然后确定问题成因并设计修复方式。", "index": 7570}
{"en": "This led to many ideas that proved to be powerful.", "zh": "这种做法催生了许多被证明是极为有效的点子。", "index": 7571}
{"en": "In agriculture, the development of aggregators helped small farmers connect to better technologies and more lucrative markets, creating a boom in vegetable exports.", "zh": "在农业方面，信心汇集企业的发展帮助农民获取先进技术并连接利润更为丰厚的市场，从而创造了蔬菜出口的繁荣。", "index": 7572}
{"en": "In the power sector, the government adopted an unorthodox strategy to change citizens’ behavior regarding electricity theft and non-payment, which led in 2015 to a turnaround of almost 2% of GDP in the distribution company’s cash flow.", "zh": "在电力部门，政府使用了一种非常规的策略去改变民众的电力盗窃和欠款行为，使得2015年配电公司现金流量转变到相当于GDP近2％的水平。", "index": 7573}
{"en": "Likewise, consultative groups in manufacturing and tourism identified areas for improvement.", "zh": "同样，制造业和旅游业的咨询小组也确定了需要改进的领域。", "index": 7574}
{"en": "Albania has invested in the recovery of its historic cities and is now investing in 100 villages with strong agro-tourism potential that happen to be in areas that are both poor and pristine.", "zh": "阿尔巴尼亚正在投资修复本国那些历史悠久的城市，目前还针对100个具备强大农业旅游潜力但恰好位于贫穷原始地区的村庄投资。", "index": 7575}
{"en": "No wonder that tourism is growing at double-digit rates.", "zh": "难怪旅游业实现了两位数的增长。", "index": 7576}
{"en": "Moreover, the country’s ambassadors are now being used in a concerted strategy to promote foreign investment through direct engagement with firms.", "zh": "此外，该国的众多驻外大使现正采取协调一致的战略，通过直接接触企业来促进外国投资。", "index": 7577}
{"en": "And policymakers are now engaging Albania’s diaspora – found to be an important source of talent, investment, market opportunities, and business ideas – to great effect.", "zh": "政策制定者们如今正在引导阿尔巴尼亚侨民去发挥重要作用 — — 因为他们是人才、投资，市场机会和商业创意的重要来源。", "index": 7578}
{"en": "The innovations have not been only at the national level.", "zh": "这些创新不仅停留在国家层面。", "index": 7579}
{"en": "Erion Veliaj, the mayor of Tirana, has tripled municipal revenues since he took over in 2015 and used the proceeds in ways that have made the city one of the most pleasant in the region.", "zh": "地拉那市市长埃里昂·维利亚（Erion Veliaj）自2015年上任以来已将市政收入增加了两倍，并将收益用于使该市成为该地区最令人愉悦的城市之一。", "index": 7580}
{"en": "Albania’s capital has won European awards for its development of high-quality urban spaces and for solving mobility and environmental problems in innovative ways.", "zh": "阿尔巴尼亚的首都因其高质量的城市空间开发并以创新方式解决人员流动和环境问题而赢得了多个欧洲大奖。", "index": 7581}
{"en": "The lessons for other countries are clear.", "zh": "对于其他国家来说阿尔巴尼亚的教益相当明确。", "index": 7582}
{"en": "Success in the face of difficulties happens when governments are conscious of their predicament and their weaknesses, can articulate and own their goals, and search relentlessly for ways to achieve their aspirations.", "zh": "如果要在艰难境地下取得成功，政府意识到自身困境和弱点，能够清晰描绘和制定自身目标并不断寻求实现愿望的方法。", "index": 7583}
{"en": "In this process, countries are not alone.", "zh": "在这个过程中每个国家都不是在孤军奋斗。", "index": 7584}
{"en": "The system of international financial assistance led by the IMF and the development-finance institutions can be very helpful.", "zh": "由国际货币基金组织以及各个发展金融机构牵头的国际金融援助体系都可以伸出援手。", "index": 7585}
{"en": "But countries must figure out when and how best to use them.", "zh": "但各国必须弄清楚何时以及如何最好地利用它们。", "index": 7586}
{"en": "They can enhance government capacity but cannot substitute for government commitment.", "zh": "它们可以增强政府的能力，但不能取代政府的承诺。", "index": 7587}
{"en": "The lesson for the European Union is also clear: when thinking about accession countries like Albania and the rest of the Western Balkans, it is important to look not only at what these countries are or have been, but also at the zeal with which they act in order to become what they aspire to be.", "zh": "欧盟在此得到教益也很清晰：在考虑将阿尔巴尼亚以及其他西巴尔干国家吸收入盟时，重要的是不仅要关注这些国家的状况，还要关注它们为了实现自身理想而采取行动的热情。", "index": 7588}
{"en": "For much of its history, Albania looked hopeless.", "zh": "在其历史的大部分时间里，阿尔巴尼亚看起来毫无希望。", "index": 7589}
{"en": "But hopeless is as hopeless does.", "zh": "但绝望本身也是不可能永远存续下去的。", "index": 7590}
{"en": "Now Albania’s turnaround is a source of hope for the rest of us.", "zh": "如今阿尔巴尼亚的转变已经成为了我们其他人的希望之源。", "index": 7591}
{"en": "Toward a More Reflective Planet", "zh": "增加地球反射性", "index": 7592}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – The last time the atmosphere held as much carbon dioxide as it does today was about three million years ago – a time when sea levels were 10-30 meters higher than they are now.", "zh": "坎布里奇—大气层上一次含二氧化碳量与今天一样多大约出现在三百万年前 — — 当时的海平面比今天高10—30米。", "index": 7593}
{"en": "Climate models have long struggled to duplicate those large fluctuations in sea levels – until now.", "zh": "长期以来，气候模型一直努力复制着海平面的大幅波动 — — 直至目前。", "index": 7594}
{"en": "Indeed, for the first time, a high-quality model of Antarctic ice and climate has been able to simulate these large swings.", "zh": "事实上，历史上第一次，一个高质量的南极冰和气候模型能够模拟这些大波动。", "index": 7595}
{"en": "That is smart science, but it brings devastating news.", "zh": "这是智能科学，但它带来的是灾难性的消息。", "index": 7596}
{"en": "The new model shows that melting in Antarctica alone could increase global sea levels by as much as one meter (3.2 feet) by the end of this century – well above prior estimates.", "zh": "新模型显示，光是南极融化就可以让全球海平面在本世纪末上升足足一米 — — 远高于先前的估计。", "index": 7597}
{"en": "Worse, it suggests that even extraordinary success at cutting emissions would not save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, locking in eventual sea-level increases of more than five meters.", "zh": "更糟糕的是，模型表明，即使减排工作取得卓越的成功，也无法拯救西南极洲冰原，最终的海平面上升幅度将超过五米。", "index": 7598}
{"en": "As little as one meter could put at risk entire cities, from Miami to Mumbai, and cause enormous economic disruption.", "zh": "海平面升高区区一米就可以让从迈阿密到孟买面临全城被淹的危险，并导致巨大的经济破坏。", "index": 7599}
{"en": "We need to turn down the heat – and fast.", "zh": "我们需要降低温度 — — 并且速度要快。", "index": 7600}
{"en": "To this end, albedo modification – a kind of geoengineering intended to cool the planet by increasing the reflectivity of the earth’s atmosphere – holds tremendous promise.", "zh": "在这方面，改变反射率 — — 一种旨在通过增加地球大气层反射性的地理工程 — — 大有可为。", "index": 7601}
{"en": "Injecting synthetic aerosols that reflect sunlight into the stratosphere, for example, could help counter the warming caused by greenhouse gases.", "zh": "比如，注入可将太阳光反射进入平流层的人工气溶胶有助于遏制温室气体带来的变暖。", "index": 7602}
{"en": "The mechanism is similar to wearing a white shirt in the summer: white reflects sunlight and cools what is underneath, whereas darker colors absorb sunlight and heat.", "zh": "其中的机理类似于夏天穿白衬衫：白色反射太阳光，让下面的东西更凉爽；而深色吸收太阳光并升温。", "index": 7603}
{"en": "To be sure, even in the best-case scenario, solar geoengineering alone could not stabilize the world’s climate.", "zh": "诚然，即使在最佳情景中，仅仅依靠太阳能地理工程也无法稳定世界气候。", "index": 7604}
{"en": "For that, we must both stop pumping carbon pollution into the atmosphere and learn how to remove what is already there.", "zh": "对此，我们必须一面停止向大气层排放碳污染，一面学会如何去除已经存在于大气层中的碳。", "index": 7605}
{"en": "That is why emissions cuts should receive the lion’s share of resources devoted to combating climate change.", "zh": "这便是应该将用于遏制气候变化的资源大部分用于减排的原因。", "index": 7606}
{"en": "But, as the recent study shows, emissions cuts alone cannot save the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and prevent a drastic sea-level rise.", "zh": "但是，最新研究表明光是减排无法拯救西南极洲冰原和防止海平面灾难性上升。", "index": 7607}
{"en": "If they are pursued in conjunction with moderate albedo modification, however, there is a chance of halting rising temperatures, helping to keep the world under 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the more ambitious target agreed at the Paris climate talks last December.", "zh": "但是，如果在减排的同时略微改变反射率，就有机会停止气温上升，有助于将世界奇闻保持在前工业化水平以上1.5℃以内，亦即去年12月巴黎气候谈判上所达成的更激进的目标。", "index": 7608}
{"en": "(It should be noted that, given carbon-cycle feedbacks, such as the thawing of permafrost, there is a chance that the world would face a 1.5°C rise, even if emissions were eliminated today.)", "zh": "（应该指出，考虑到碳循环反馈（如冻土解冻 ） ， 即使今天就消灭排放，世界温度上升幅度仍可能达到1.5℃。 ）", "index": 7609}
{"en": "Most of the world’s state-of-the-art climate models have explored albedo modification, and each of them has found that the process does have the potential to mitigate climate change.", "zh": "如今，全世界大部分最新气候模型都探索了改变反射率的问题，并且都发现该过程确实有遏制气候变化的潜力。", "index": 7610}
{"en": "Beyond limiting total warming, it can help to check the rise in peak temperatures, decreasing the risk of destructive heat waves.", "zh": "除了限制升温总幅度，它还有助于遏制峰值温度的上升，降低破坏性热浪的风险。", "index": 7611}
{"en": "And it seems to be particularly effective at reducing extreme rainfall, which holds profound implications for minimizing flood damage.", "zh": "并且它在减少极端降雨方面似乎特别有效，这极有利于洪水危害最小化。", "index": 7612}
{"en": "Albedo modification remains uncertain and risky, owing partly to a dearth of organized research into the subject.", "zh": "改变反射率仍充满不确定性和风险性，部分是因为这方面的有组织研究太少。", "index": 7613}
{"en": "And, in fact, albedo modification would undoubtedly make some things worse.", "zh": "而事实上，改变反射率毫无疑问会让某些东西变得更糟。", "index": 7614}
{"en": "But there is not a single climate model run that shows that a moderate intervention would make any region worse off overall.", "zh": "但没有一个气候模型表明，略作干预会让任何地区总体恶化。", "index": 7615}
{"en": "Moreover, the large potential upside, measured in trillions of dollars, contrasts with low direct costs – in the single-digit billions for full-scale deployment.", "zh": "此外，巨大的潜在收益（高达亿万美元级别）与低廉的直接成本 — — 全部部署也只需要几十亿美元 — — 对比鲜明。", "index": 7616}
{"en": "In fact, albedo modification is so cheap that direct costs will not be the deciding issue.", "zh": "事实上，改变反射率非常廉价，其直接成本根本不会成为决定性问题。", "index": 7617}
{"en": "Instead, it is a risk-risk trade-off – one that will require more research to assess.", "zh": "相反，这是一个风险-风险权衡 — — 需要更多的研究来进行评估。", "index": 7618}
{"en": "Given the lack of knowledge, no sensible person would push for deploying albedo modification today.", "zh": "考虑到这方面知识的不足，明智之士绝不会在今天部署改变反射率。", "index": 7619}
{"en": "But it would make no sense to ignore its potential.", "zh": "但绝不应该忽略它的潜力。", "index": 7620}
{"en": "After all, no one would argue that we should abandon research on a promising cancer drug because it is unproven.", "zh": "毕竟，没人会认为我们应该因为没有得到证实而放弃一种很有希望的癌症药物。", "index": 7621}
{"en": "The US National Academy of Sciences first called attention to what it then described as “climate modification” in a 1983 report.", "zh": "美国科学院（US National Academy of Sciences）首次关注该问题是在一份1983的报告中，当时将该问题称为“气候改造 ” 。", "index": 7622}
{"en": "It recommended careful research in 1992 and again in 2015.", "zh": "1992年和2015年，美国科学院建议进行仔细研究。", "index": 7623}
{"en": "Major environmental groups such as the Environmental Defense Fund and the Natural Resources Defense Council support careful, small-scale research.", "zh": "主要环境组织，如环境保护基金（Environmental Defense Fund）和自然资源保护委员会（Natural Resources Defense Council ） ， 都支持仔细的小范围研究。", "index": 7624}
{"en": "Yet no such program exists.", "zh": "但这些项目并不存在。", "index": 7625}
{"en": "One reason for this is concern about the diversion of resources from other approaches.", "zh": "一个原因是担心其他方法的资源因此被分散。", "index": 7626}
{"en": "And, of course, there are tradeoffs.", "zh": "当然，也有权衡问题。", "index": 7627}
{"en": "But the US, for example, has an annual climate science budget of around $3 billion.", "zh": "但（比如）美国每年气候科学预算有30亿美元左右。", "index": 7628}
{"en": "An exploratory solar geoengineering program, costing only a few tens of millions of dollars per year, is entirely feasible.", "zh": "一个太阳能地理工程实验项目每年只需要花费几千万美元，是完全可行的。", "index": 7629}
{"en": "A larger obstacle to progress is fear that more attention to geoengineering solutions would sap motivation to cut emissions.", "zh": "阻碍进步的更大障碍是担心更多地关注地理工程解决方案不利于减排激励。", "index": 7630}
{"en": "Maybe so, but it would be barking mad to take up smoking simply because an experimental cancer treatment showed some promise on a lab rat.", "zh": "也许如此，但如果你仅仅因为一项实验性癌症治疗方法在小白鼠身上出现了令人欣喜的效果就开始抽烟，那你一定是疯了。", "index": 7631}
{"en": "And, in fact, it is conceivable that a concerted effort to advance research on albedo modification could spur action to cut emissions, much like a graphic look at the side effects of chemotherapy prompts some to stop smoking.", "zh": "而事实上，可以想象推进改变反射率的研究共同努力能够刺激减排行动，就像化疗副作用的照片促使一些人戒烟那样。", "index": 7632}
{"en": "Whichever reaction prevails, the moral imperative to explore a technology that can protect the poorest and most vulnerable this century would seem to trump amorphous concerns that doing so could weaken the incentive to pursue solutions that would largely benefit future generations.", "zh": "不管出现那种反应，探索能在本世纪保护最贫穷、最脆弱群体的技术的道德使命似乎要胜过关于这样做可能削弱探索能给子孙后代带来巨大好处的解决办法的激励的零散担忧。", "index": 7633}
{"en": "China has initiated a limited research program on albedo modification.", "zh": "中国已经启动了一项有限的改变反射率研究项目。", "index": 7634}
{"en": "The US has not.", "zh": "美国还没有。", "index": 7635}
{"en": "Given that albedo modification is the kind of technology that necessitates an open, transparent, and international research effort – precisely the kind of effort in which the US excels – this is a serious failing.", "zh": "改变反射率是开放、透明和国际化的研究措施 — — 这正是美国所擅长的措施 — — 的必不可少的技术，因此，这是严重的失败。", "index": 7636}
{"en": "The US government should take the lead now in researching albedo modification.", "zh": "目前，美国政府应该领衔改变反射率研究。", "index": 7637}
{"en": "Even if the result was that albedo modification does not work, the dividends of such research would be enormous, owing to the added pressure to cut emissions.", "zh": "即使结果表明改变反射率没有用，这些研究所产生的红利也将是巨大的，因为这样能给减排带来更多压力。", "index": 7638}
{"en": "And if it turned out to be successful, the social, environmental, and economic returns would be tremendous.", "zh": "而如果成功，其社会、环境和经济回报将不可限量。", "index": 7639}
{"en": "India’s Prohibition Hypocrisy", "zh": "印度的禁令伪善", "index": 7640}
{"en": "NEW DELHI – Last month, 18 people in the Gopalganj district of India’s Bihar state died after consuming illicit alcohol, highlighting – once again – the peculiar relationship between morality and tragedy in India.", "zh": "新德里—上个月，18位印度比哈尔邦戈帕尔甘杰（Gopalganj）区的人民在饮用假酒后死亡，此事再次突显印度奇怪的道德与悲剧之间的关系。", "index": 7641}
{"en": "The victims were poisoned because this April, in a fit of moralism, Bihar adopted a draconian law prohibiting the sale, possession, and consumption of alcohol.", "zh": "受害者中毒的原因是今年4月比哈尔邦出于道德考虑实施了严苛的法律禁止酒精的销售、拥有和消费。", "index": 7642}
{"en": "It is far from the first such ban that has ended badly.", "zh": "这绝非印度第一宗造成严重后果的禁令。", "index": 7643}
{"en": "In a country where the national hero is the saintly Mahatma Gandhi, who considered alcohol an unmitigated evil, drinking has always carried a whiff of disrepute.", "zh": "在圣雄甘地被视为民族英雄的印度，饮酒一直被视为恶习。 甘地本人认为酒精是十足的恶魔。", "index": 7644}
{"en": "India’s constitution, in its non-enforceable Directive Principles, urges Indians to work toward prohibition, and the government does not serve alcohol even at state banquets and official receptions.", "zh": "印度宪法以不具强制力的指导原则敦促印度人民厉行禁止，政府在国宴和公务接待中也不提供酒精饮料。", "index": 7645}
{"en": "Four out of 29 Indian states (Bihar, Gujarat, Manipur, and Nagaland) and one union territory (Lakshadweep or the Laccadive Islands) are currently attempting to enforce total prohibition.", "zh": "印度29个邦中的四个（比哈尔、古吉拉特、曼尼普尔和那加兰）以及一个直辖区（拉克沙威或拉克代夫群岛）目前都在尝试强制性禁酒令。", "index": 7646}
{"en": "But maintaining a sweeping prohibition policy has long proved difficult in India.", "zh": "但厉行禁止政策在印度向来困难重重。", "index": 7647}
{"en": "In Manipur in 2002, the 1991 ban was lifted in five hill districts, where alcohol consumption is a centuries-old local tradition.", "zh": "2002年，曼普尔邦的1991年禁令在五个有着数百年饮酒风俗的山区被取消。", "index": 7648}
{"en": "Lakshadweep makes an exception for an uninhabited island, where a tourist resort is allowed to operate a bar.", "zh": "拉克沙威的禁酒令也对其中一个岛屿豁免，一处度假区允许经营酒吧。", "index": 7649}
{"en": "When I was a child, what was then Bombay excused anyone with a doctor’s note confirming alcoholism.", "zh": "在我小时候的孟买，如果你被医生判定为醉酒，就可以免于刑罚。", "index": 7650}
{"en": "(Well-heeled executives tripped over themselves to be labeled alcoholics.)", "zh": "（上层人士竞相给自己贴上酗酒者的标签。 ）", "index": 7651}
{"en": "The state that best illustrates the appeal and the pitfalls of such moralism is Kerala, which announced in 2014 that it was implementing a partial ban on the sale of alcohol, with the goal of achieving total prohibition in ten years.", "zh": "最能体现这种道德主义的利弊的邦要数喀拉拉，2014年，喀拉拉邦宣布对酒精销售实施局部禁令，并计划在十年后全民禁酒。", "index": 7652}
{"en": "It has been backsliding ever since.", "zh": "此后该政策日益减弱。", "index": 7653}
{"en": "A coastal state, Kerala has long been viewed as a tourist paradise – a reputation no doubt kept afloat on a sea of easily available libations.", "zh": "喀拉拉邦地处沿海地区，一直是旅游胜地 — — 这一盛名当然建立在想喝就喝的基础上。", "index": 7654}
{"en": "Before the ban, Kerala held a somewhat dubious distinction: India’s highest per capita consumption of spirits.", "zh": "禁令实施前，喀拉拉邦保持着一项可疑的记录：印度最高人均酒精消费量。", "index": 7655}
{"en": "But in India, where prohibition is popular among many segments of the electorate, politicians find it particularly difficult to resist the self-righteous urge to improve their fellow citizens.", "zh": "但在印度，禁令在许多选民细分群体中稀松平常，政客要抵制道貌岸然地敦促改善同胞境况的做法是十分困难的。", "index": 7656}
{"en": "So Kerala’s government introduced the ban.", "zh": "因此，克拉拉邦政府实施了禁令。", "index": 7657}
{"en": "And, at first, many approved.", "zh": "一开始，许多人都赞成。", "index": 7658}
{"en": "The influential Christian churches applauded the move, as did the Christian-affiliated political parties.", "zh": "影响力巨大的基督教会赞赏该政策，受基督教会支持的政党亦然。", "index": 7659}
{"en": "Kerala’s Muslim leadership, including the then-ruling coalition’s ally, the Indian Union Muslim League, was equally vocal in its support.", "zh": "喀拉拉邦的穆斯林领导层，包括时任执政联盟成员印度联合穆斯林同盟（Indian Union Muslim League）也是大力支持。", "index": 7660}
{"en": "Working-class women, tired of watching their laborer husbands blow their monthly wages on booze, also welcomed the decision, as did traditionalists, Gandhians, and other moralists, of which India has an abundance.", "zh": "工人阶级妇女早已对劳工丈夫们将每个月的工资浪费在喝酒上怨声载道，她们也欢迎这一决定，传统论者、甘地派和其他道德主义者也是如此 — — 印度这样的人有很多。", "index": 7661}
{"en": "No public figure of any consequence in Kerala stood up to oppose the decision.", "zh": "在喀拉拉邦，每有一位有影响力的公众人物站出来反对这一决定。", "index": 7662}
{"en": "Any politician who might have been inclined to do so knew that they would be instantly tarred as a votary of evil alcohol, an agent of the “liquor mafia,” a bar-loving enemy of good, wholesome Gandhian values.", "zh": "可能有这样的打算的政客都知道，他们立刻会被批判为万恶的酒精爱好者 、 “ 液体黑手党”代理人、喜欢泡吧的甘地主义公序良俗的敌人。", "index": 7663}
{"en": "But there were good reasons to oppose the ban – reasons that had nothing to do with religion, morality, or alcoholism.", "zh": "但有很好的理由应该反对该禁令 — — 这些理由与宗教、道德或酗酒无关。", "index": 7664}
{"en": "Excise duties on liquor account for 22% of the state revenues that sustain generous welfare programs in Kerala, which boasts the best social development indicators in India.", "zh": "酒精税占喀拉拉邦收入的22 % ， 是维持其慷慨的福利政策的重要支柱，而喀拉拉邦的福利政策被夸赞为印度最佳社会发展指标。", "index": 7665}
{"en": "Another 26% of state revenues come from tourism, which would surely also take a hit.", "zh": "另有26%的邦收入来自旅游业，而旅游业必然会因为禁酒令而遭受重创。", "index": 7666}
{"en": "Furthermore, much of Kerala’s economic viability depends on dynamic knowledge and services sectors.", "zh": "此外，喀拉拉邦的大部分经济活力以来活跃的知识和服务界。", "index": 7667}
{"en": "Attracting talent and investment from abroad would become much more difficult if prohibition hampered the state’s quality of life.", "zh": "如果禁酒令影响到喀拉拉邦的生活质量，吸引海外人才和投资将变得十分困难。", "index": 7668}
{"en": "(IT professionals in Bangalore, in the neighboring state Karnataka, flock to that city’s bars and pubs after long hours at work.)", "zh": "（毗邻的卡纳塔克邦的班加罗尔的IT人才都喜欢在结束了一天漫长的工作后去酒吧小酌一番。 ）", "index": 7669}
{"en": "Kerala’s leaders should have known that their state could not afford to do without widely available, heavily taxed liquor.", "zh": "喀拉拉领导人应该知道，如果不让被课以重税的酒精畅通地流通，本邦收入将大受影响。", "index": 7670}
{"en": "But they began to implement the policy anyway.", "zh": "但他们还是实施了禁酒令。", "index": 7671}
{"en": "Almost immediately, 20,000 bar workers and distillery employees lost their jobs, in a state that already struggles with high unemployment.", "zh": "20,000酒吧和酿酒厂员工几乎在一夜之间失去了工作，而当时的喀拉拉邦已经因为高失业而步履维艰。", "index": 7672}
{"en": "Tourism operators were stung by cancelations, as would-be visitors decided to visit Sri Lanka or Goa instead; 50% of existing convention bookings were canceled.", "zh": "旅游业经营者因为取消行程而遭遇重创，本打算来到喀拉拉邦的游客纷纷决定改去斯里兰卡或果阿；50%的会展预定被取消。", "index": 7673}
{"en": "And IT companies contemplating moving to clean, green, tech-friendly Kerala expressed concern about the prohibition policy.", "zh": "打算迁往干净、绿色、技术友好的喀拉拉邦的IT公司纷纷表示对禁酒政策十分担心。", "index": 7674}
{"en": "It was not long before Kerala’s government decided that prohibition would apply only to hard alcohol, and closed bars could reopen as wine and beer parlors.", "zh": "不久，喀拉拉邦政府决定禁酒令只对烈酒有效，已经关门的酒吧可以重新开张，销售葡萄酒和啤酒。", "index": 7675}
{"en": "But that was not enough to save the government in June’s state election, which produced a new communist administration that, advocating education about the evils of alcohol instead of a ban, has promised to review the prohibition policy.", "zh": "但这不足以拯救政府在6月邦选举中的命运，在选举中上台的共产党政府支持酒精是魔鬼的教育，而不实施禁酒令，承诺重新评估禁酒政策。", "index": 7676}
{"en": "So Kerala is no longer hurtling toward disaster in the name of saving people from themselves.", "zh": "于是，喀拉拉邦不再打着从人民自己手中拯救人民的旗号走向灾难了。", "index": 7677}
{"en": "But it never should have gone as far as it did, given experience with prohibition in other states, where falling revenues and rising crime (including smuggling, tax evasion, and illicit liquor production) forced its revocation.", "zh": "但它根本不必走到收入下降、犯罪（包括走私、逃税和生产假酒）增加这一步才被迫废除禁令 — — 其他邦的禁令都是可供借鉴的教训。", "index": 7678}
{"en": "Four states – Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Mizoram, and Tamil Nadu – have repealed prohibition policies.", "zh": "有四个邦 — — 安德拉、哈里亚纳、米佐拉姆和泰米尔纳德 — — 都已经废除了禁令政策。", "index": 7679}
{"en": "To be sure, not everyone loses out from a prohibition policy.", "zh": "诚然，并非所有人都因为禁令政策而受损。", "index": 7680}
{"en": "When Kerala first announced its plans, neighboring Tamil Nadu’s alcoholic beverages corporation, TASMAC, promptly declared its intention to open a string of new outlets along the states’ border, to cater to the demands of Keralite consumers.", "zh": "喀拉拉邦第一次宣布禁酒令计划时，毗邻的泰米尔纳德邦酒精饮料生产商TASMAC立刻宣布准备在两邦交界处开设一批新店铺，以迎合喀拉拉邦消费者的需求。", "index": 7681}
{"en": "In other words, excise duties from Kerala would now fill Tamil Nadu’s coffers.", "zh": "换句话说，喀拉拉邦的酒税现在落入了泰米尔拉德邦的金库中。", "index": 7682}
{"en": "Banning alcohol in India has been economically devastating.", "zh": "在印度，禁酒一直是经济上的灾难。", "index": 7683}
{"en": "Yet politicians continue to use the promise of prohibition to win votes.", "zh": "但政客仍然在用禁令承诺赢得选票。", "index": 7684}
{"en": "When elections were called in Tamil Nadu early this year, its chief minister declared herself in favor of prohibition.", "zh": "今年年初，泰米尔拉德邦举行选举的时候，其首席部长宣布自己支持禁令。", "index": 7685}
{"en": "After the election was won, however, all such talk discreetly subsided.", "zh": "但是，赢得选举后这些话被小心地回避了。", "index": 7686}
{"en": "My late father liked to say: “India is not only the world’s largest democracy; we are also the world’s largest hypocrisy.”", "zh": "先父常言 ： “ 印度不但是世界上最大的民主国家；我们也是世界上最大的伪善者。", "index": 7687}
{"en": "I suppose we can drink to that.", "zh": "”我觉得我们可以把这句话一饮而尽。", "index": 7688}
{"en": "Leaders for a Leaderless World", "zh": "领导缺乏领袖的世界", "index": 7689}
{"en": "PARIS – The newspaper commentaries that I write often have a dark perspective.", "zh": "巴黎 — — 我写的新闻评论往往从阴暗的角度出发。", "index": 7690}
{"en": "Sadly, this one will be no different.", "zh": "可悲的是这一篇也不会例外。", "index": 7691}
{"en": "But there are two pieces of good news that break through the gloom.", "zh": "但却有两则好消息能够冲破黑暗。", "index": 7692}
{"en": "First, the global significance of US President Barack Obama’s reelection is clear: the world has escaped a disaster for international cooperation.", "zh": "首先，美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马再度当选发出了明确的信号：世界已经躲过了一场国际合作劫难。", "index": 7693}
{"en": "The US was on the verge of sinking into isolationist nationalism, reinforced, perhaps, by xenophobic sentiment.", "zh": "美国已经处在孤立民族主义的边缘，仇外情绪或许进一步强化了这种现状。", "index": 7694}
{"en": "Obama’s victory, despite America’s economic travails, clears the way for cooperation based on a sympathetic ear to others and on negotiations in which the US does not deny the legitimacy of a global public interest (as it has done, unfortunately, on the issue of climate change).", "zh": "尽管美国的经济劫难依然没有过去，但奥巴马的获胜却用充满同情的聆听和美国对全球公共利益合法性的认可开辟了合作的光明大道（美国在气候变化问题上就遗憾地对全球公共利益采取视而不见的态度 ） 。", "index": 7695}
{"en": "The other piece of good news concerns France, and thus is more “local,” but is crucially important nonetheless.", "zh": "另一条好消息因为关乎法国而更有“地方性 ” ， 但其重要性却毫不逊色。", "index": 7696}
{"en": "Like everywhere else in the developed world, the global crisis has hit the French economy hard, with output stagnating, unemployment rising, job insecurity mounting, government debt soaring, and the stock market at risk of crashing.", "zh": "像发达世界其他国家一样，金融危机严重打击了法国经济，导致生产停滞、失业率升高、就业不确定性上升、政府债务飙升，股市也面临崩溃的危险。", "index": 7697}
{"en": "Manufacturing production has plummeted, the trade balance has deteriorated sharply, and corporate bankruptcies are increasingly frequent.", "zh": "制造业生产大幅下降、贸易收支急剧恶化，越来越多的企业濒临破产。", "index": 7698}
{"en": "For six months, France has had new leadership – a new president, government, and parliament.", "zh": "六个月前，法国有了全新领导班子 — — 新总统、新政府和新议会。", "index": 7699}
{"en": "But President François Hollande and his government were strangely inactive after the elections, limiting themselves to reducing the impact of unfair budget cuts and taxation reforms implemented by the previous government of Nicolas Sarkozy.", "zh": "但总统弗朗索瓦·奥朗德及其政府在当选后不可思议地行动迟缓，除了消解前任萨科齐政府所实施的不公平预算削减及税收改革产生的影响之外几乎别无所长。", "index": 7700}
{"en": "Many began to wonder whether Hollande was aware of the scope of the crisis that the recent downturn might trigger.", "zh": "许多人开始怀疑奥朗德是否对不久前经济衰退可能引发的危机规模有着清醒的认识。", "index": 7701}
{"en": "In recent weeks, however, the government has introduced energetic and courageous measures to boost the competitiveness of French industries, including a huge €20 billion ($26 billion) tax break for businesses, to be financed by a hike in value-added tax, which means that the general public will pay for it.", "zh": "不过近几周政府已经积极勇敢地推进政策来提高法国企业的竞争力，包括面向企业推出200亿欧元（合260亿美元）的巨额减税计划，减税所需资金由大幅提高增值税提供，也就是说普通市民将为此付出代价。", "index": 7702}
{"en": "The VAT increase will hurt, but there was no other way.", "zh": "提高增值税会带来切肤之痛，但除此之外别无他法。", "index": 7703}
{"en": "Awareness, boldness, and comprehensive policymaking have come as a relief to French investors, and have left them better positioned to face the crisis.", "zh": "清醒的头脑及大胆全面的决策令法国的投资者感到安心，让他们在面对危机时有更多办法。", "index": 7704}
{"en": "The French government’s new push to confront the country’s economic plight matters not only to France, but to Europe and the world as well.", "zh": "法国政府应对国内经济困境的全新举措对法国、欧洲和世界都至关重要。", "index": 7705}
{"en": "After all, France is the eurozone’s second-largest economy, and the fifth-largest economy in the world.", "zh": "毕竟法国是欧元区排名第二、世界排名第五的经济大国。", "index": 7706}
{"en": "And yet, despite these bright spots, international cooperation on issues ranging from regional conflicts to the protection of global public goods remains weak.", "zh": "尽管有这些亮点，在从地区冲突到保护全球公众利益等领域的国际合作依然非常薄弱。", "index": 7707}
{"en": "Antarctica, the only land in the world that is administered directly by the international community, is a recent case in point.", "zh": "南极洲这块世界范围内唯一由国际社会直接管理的大陆就是最新的例证。", "index": 7708}
{"en": "The Antarctic Treaty, negotiated in 1959, prohibits any and all military activities in Antarctica and forbids the establishment of any borders.", "zh": "1959年谈判达成的南极条约禁止在南极洲从事一切军事活动或划定一切边界。", "index": 7709}
{"en": "Three agreements – the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals (1972), the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR, 1980), and the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (PEP, 1991), which prohibits any activity relating to mineral resources – have since been added to the treaty.", "zh": "《南极海豹保护公约 》 （ 1972年 ） 、 《南极海洋生物资源养护公约 》 （ 南极海洋生物资源保护委员会，1980年）以及禁止一切采矿活动的《南极条约环境保护议定书 》 （ PEP，1991年）等三项公约陆续增补进南极条约的内容。", "index": 7710}
{"en": "The Antarctic Treaty System includes three annual meetings: one deals with the supervision and management of the Treaty itself, and the other two concern the CCAMLR and the PEP.", "zh": "南极条约体系包含三次年会：其中一次涉及条约本身的监督和管理，另两次则与南极海洋生物资源养护委员会和《南极条约环境保护议定书》相关。", "index": 7711}
{"en": "In recent years, proposals have been considered that would establish marine reserves around the continent and end the risk of growing scarcity, or the outright disappearance, of a variety of species of fish and cetaceans.", "zh": "近年来在大陆周围设立海洋保护区的建议已经被纳入考虑，目的是防止各种鱼及鲸类数量日益减少甚至彻底灭绝。", "index": 7712}
{"en": "The principle that international cooperation is required to protect fishery resources, which are dwindling everywhere, was adopted at the 2011 CCAMLR meeting.", "zh": "2011年召开的南极海洋生物资源养护委员会会议确立了需要进行国际合作保护日益减少的渔业资源的原则。", "index": 7713}
{"en": "At the 2012 CCAMLR meeting, which concluded at the beginning of November in Hobart, Australia, three proposals (from the US, New Zealand, and France/Australia) to establish marine reserves in three different areas were discussed.", "zh": "在2012年11月初结束的澳大利亚霍巴特南极海洋生物资源养护委员会会议上，与会者探讨了由美国、新西兰和法国/澳大利亚提出的在三个不同地区设立海洋保护区的三项提案。", "index": 7714}
{"en": "They were compatible and would reinforce one another.", "zh": "上述提案不仅彼此之间没有冲突，而且还可以相互强化。", "index": 7715}
{"en": "Yet the discussion foundered, and no decision was taken.", "zh": "可是讨论最终没能达成决议。", "index": 7716}
{"en": "Russia and Ukraine – and, to a lesser extent, China – blocked efforts to reach an agreement.", "zh": "俄罗斯和乌克兰、其次还有中国妨碍了协议的达成。", "index": 7717}
{"en": "This failure reflects the same dynamic at work in the breakdown of global climate-change conferences in recent years: a few cynical countries, whose cooperation is needed to save the planet, fuel the madness of those bent on destroying it.", "zh": "此次失败反映出近年来导致全球气候变化会议搁浅的同样一个原因：少数几个玩世不恭的国家，我们需要他们的合作才能拯救地球，但他们却助长了那些决意毁灭地球者的疯狂。", "index": 7718}
{"en": "That will not change until a new consciousness emerges worldwide to persuade states to support binding international law.", "zh": "除非说服各国政府支持有约束力的国际法的全新意识在世界各国扎根，否则这种状况很难发生变化。", "index": 7719}
{"en": "The US has now reelected a president who understands this.", "zh": "美国目前连任的总统理解这一点的重要。", "index": 7720}
{"en": "France has a president who understands the need for bold, far-reaching actions as well.", "zh": "法国也有一位理解必需采取大胆、意义深远行动的总统。", "index": 7721}
{"en": "Their active leadership, and that of others, is needed now more than ever to turn the tide.", "zh": "我们现在比任何时候都需要他们及其他人的积极领导，才能帮助我们力挽狂澜、实现目标。", "index": 7722}
{"en": "Assured Mutual Dependence", "zh": "确保相互依赖", "index": 7723}
{"en": "LONDON – During the Cold War, the certainty of “mutually assured destruction” steered the nuclear arms race away from catastrophe: a would-be attacker would face immediate retaliation, inevitably ending in both sides’ annihilation.", "zh": "伦敦—冷战期间 ， “ 确保互相摧毁”的确定性让核武竞赛远离灾难���后果：人若犯我，我必犯人，双方都难逃灭绝的命运。", "index": 7724}
{"en": "Today, a very different race is taking place – a race for the earth’s vital resources, and it threatens to undermine stability in key regions of the world.", "zh": "如今，一场完全不同的竞赛正在展开 — — 地球关键资源竞赛，这场竞赛可能会动摇世界关键地区的稳定性。", "index": 7725}
{"en": "The growing dependence of countries on one another’s food, water, and energy requires that the global response to sustainability is taken to the highest political level.", "zh": "各国日益依赖他国的粮食、水和能源，这要求我们把可持续性的全球响应列为最高政治等级。", "index": 7726}
{"en": "Unlike the nuclear arms race of the twentieth century, the resource-security agenda is not linear.", "zh": "与二十世纪的核武竞赛不同，资源安全日程不是线性的。", "index": 7727}
{"en": "Mutually assured destruction was explicitly acknowledged during the Cold War in statements from both sides.", "zh": "确保互相摧毁白纸黑字地写在冷战期间对立双方的声明中。", "index": 7728}
{"en": "In the race for resources that defines the twenty-first century, no actor is directly or indirectly threatening other players to curtail food or energy exports, but all bear the systemic risks.", "zh": "在成为二十一世纪特征的资源竞赛中，没有哪个行动方直接或间接地威胁其他行动方减少粮食和能源出口，但所有人都承担着系统性风险。", "index": 7729}
{"en": "Countries have become unavoidably interdependent, and climate change, water stress, and the loss of ecological resilience all increase the volatility of this mutual dependence.", "zh": "各国都不可避免地变得互相依赖，气候变化、水压力和生态恢复力的下降都增加了这一互相依赖的波动性。", "index": 7730}
{"en": "In a world of limited and scarce resources, countries and companies will be forced to make decisions that affect one another’s security.", "zh": "世界的资源是有限而稀缺的，国家和公司将被迫做出互相影响安全的决定。", "index": 7731}
{"en": "In order to navigate this interdependence, the Earth Security Index 2014, produced by the Earth Security Initiative, shows countries’ combined vulnerabilities that might increase the risk exposure of governments and companies, unless more strategic approaches and sustainable investments are put in place.", "zh": "为了引导这一互相依赖性，地球安全计划（Earth Security Initiative，ESI）发布的地球安全指数2014（Earth Security Index 2014）显示各国脆弱度加起来可能导致政府和公司风险敞口增加，除非我们有更具战略眼光的方针和可持续投资。", "index": 7732}
{"en": "The ESI identifies four areas of mutual dependence that will likely shape global security in the coming decades:", "zh": "ESI认为，四个互相依赖领域可能会影响未来数十年的全球安全：", "index": 7733}
{"en": "·         Choke points.", "zh": "·         梗阻点。", "index": 7734}
{"en": "Countries’ growing demand for energy, water, food, and land cannot be satisfied without incurring tradeoffs among limited available resources.", "zh": "各国的能源、水、粮食和土地需求无法在不进行有限可得资源之间的权衡的情况下得到满足。", "index": 7735}
{"en": "Choke points are reached when the available resources are insufficient to satisfy demand.", "zh": "当可得资源不足以满足需求时，便达到了梗阻点。", "index": 7736}
{"en": "In China and India, for example, this means that in certain regions there may not be enough water in the short term to run coal-fired thermal power stations and irrigate large fields to grow crops.", "zh": "比如，在中国和印度，这意味着一些地区无法在短期获得足够的水运行燃煤热电厂和灌溉大片土地种植庄稼。", "index": 7737}
{"en": "In China, 60% of planned coal-fired power plants will be built in water-stressed regions.", "zh": "在中国，60%的规划燃煤电厂将建于水资源紧缺地区。", "index": 7738}
{"en": "·         Food.", "zh": "·         粮食。", "index": 7739}
{"en": "The growing dependence of many countries on food, water, and energy imports creates new opportunities for trade and investment, but it also exposes countries to critical vulnerabilities.", "zh": "许多国家对粮食、水和能源进口依赖日益增加为贸易和投资创造了新的机会，但也让国家暴露出关键弱点。", "index": 7740}
{"en": "Australia, for example, is a large coal exporter but imports most of its refined fuels and holds just three days of fuel stockpiles.", "zh": "比如，澳大利亚是煤炭出口大国，但精炼燃料大部分依靠进口，燃料储备只够用三天。", "index": 7741}
{"en": "The challenges of mutual dependence are particularly acute with respect to food.", "zh": "互相依赖的挑战在粮食方面尤其突出。", "index": 7742}
{"en": "As the ESI shows, some countries – including Egypt, Peru, and the United Arab Emirates – are heavily dependent on cereal imports from a small number of suppliers.", "zh": "ESI指出，一些国家 — — 包括埃及、秘鲁和阿联酋 — — 严重依赖少数供应国的谷物进口。", "index": 7743}
{"en": "Moreover, grain suppliers’ exposure to extreme weather may compromise their ability to sustain supplies, with knock-on effects for import-dependent countries.", "zh": "此外，谷物供应国又容易受极端天气的冲击，这可能制约它们的持续供应能力，从而让进口依赖国连带遭殃。", "index": 7744}
{"en": "In 2010, for example, Russia imposed an export ban on wheat, following a severe drought.", "zh": "比如，2010年，俄罗斯因为严重干旱实施了小麦出口禁令。", "index": 7745}
{"en": "The resulting food-price increases are believed to have played a role in Egypt’s revolution.", "zh": "据信由此造成的粮食价格上涨在埃及革命中扮演了重要角色。", "index": 7746}
{"en": "·         Teleconnections.", "zh": "·         遥相关。", "index": 7747}
{"en": "Anticipating systemic ecological risks will be increasingly important for sectors such as reinsurance and infrastructure investments.", "zh": "预测系统性生态风险将对再保险和基础设施投资等部门越来越重要。", "index": 7748}
{"en": "“Teleconnections” refer to weather events that are related to one another over large geographic distances.", "zh": "“遥相关”是指地理距离很远的天气事件彼此之间互相联系。", "index": 7749}
{"en": "They are well known to science but not properly discussed by the industries, investors, and governments whose security depends on environmental stability.", "zh": "科学界对此早已熟知，但在安全系于环境稳定性的产业界、投资者和政府中间还没有得到应有的讨论。", "index": 7750}
{"en": "For example, tropical rainforests play a crucial function in maintaining stable weather and rainfall, acting as a “pump” that helps moisture travel between different regions.", "zh": "比如，热带雨林在保持稳定天气和降雨方面起着关键作用，起着帮助不同地区间的水传播的“泵”的作用。", "index": 7751}
{"en": "Deforestation can thus have a destabilizing effect on weather patterns, amplifying the frequency and severity of extreme events such as floods and droughts.", "zh": "因此，毁林对天气路径具有破坏性影响，加剧了洪水和干旱等极端事件的频率和严重程度。", "index": 7752}
{"en": "The resulting liabilities to key industries and the financial sector are clear.", "zh": "由此产生的关键产业和金融部门的责任是明确的。", "index": 7753}
{"en": "In Brazil, for example, deforestation in Amazonia has slowed significantly over the last five years, but Brazil has already lost more than 11 million hectares of rainforest; its exposure to extreme weather has also steadily risen, with floods causing $4.7 billion in losses in 2011 alone.", "zh": "比如，在巴西，亚马逊流域的森林采伐速度在过去五年中明显减缓，但巴西已经失去了1,100多万公顷的热带雨林，巴西极端天气也在稳步上升，光是在2011年，洪水就造成了47亿美元的损失。", "index": 7754}
{"en": "·         Land productivity bottlenecks: Agriculture systems are reaching resource limits, and persistent governance gaps compromise their ability to ensure food security, dignified livelihoods, and ecological stewardship.", "zh": "·         土地生产率瓶颈：农业系统正在达到资源极限，持续的治理缺口制约了它们确保粮食安全、生活尊严和生态支持力的能力。", "index": 7755}
{"en": "Companies, investors, governments, and communities confront a series of critical barriers to increasing the food availability that the world needs: Local populations’ insecure land ownership; receding water tables, owing to unsustainable extraction rates; inefficient use of pollution-causing inputs like fertilizers and pesticides; the loss of vital ecosystems, affecting the resilience of food production; and certain areas’ inability to cope with extreme weather.", "zh": "在提高全世界所急需的粮食可获得性的问题上公司、投资者、政府和社会面临着一系列关键障碍：本地人口土地所有权得不到保障；不可持续的开采速度导致潜水面下降；致污投入（如化肥和杀虫剂）的无效使用；重要生态系统的损失影响了粮食生产的恢复力；以及某些地区无力抵挡极端天气。", "index": 7756}
{"en": "In some regions of India, for example, these issues are playing out in tandem.", "zh": "比如，在印度的一些地区，这些问题都存在。", "index": 7757}
{"en": "Insecure land tenure acts as a disincentive for smallholder farmers to commit to productivity-enhancing investments; water extraction rates are depleting aquifers as a result of permissive policies; and food security remains out of reach for millions of people, despite rapid economic growth in urban areas.", "zh": "得不到保障的土地所有权导致小农无法进行改进生产率的投资；放任的政策导致水开采率过快，含水层流失严重；尽管农村地区经济增长迅速，仍有数百万人得不到粮食安全。", "index": 7758}
{"en": "Countries and companies will increasingly need to invest in sustainable land in order to hedge their resource risks.", "zh": "国家和公司将越来越需要投资于可持续土地以规避这些资源风险。", "index": 7759}
{"en": "In 2015, global frameworks are due to be agreed to address climate change, coordinate responses to natural disasters, and guide the world’s development agenda.", "zh": "2015年将形成一致的全球框架以纠正气候变化、协调自然灾害反应、指导全球发展日程。", "index": 7760}
{"en": "Some of these multilateral processes – in particular, those seeking an ambitious global climate agreement – appear to be moving in slow motion and against the grain of geopolitical interests.", "zh": "一些多边过程 — — 特别是那些雄心勃勃的全球气候协议 — — 进展缓慢，不符合地缘政治利益。", "index": 7761}
{"en": "In the past, the case for high-level nuclear governance was urgent and clear, but required processes for creating a common understanding of risks and opportunities across national borders.", "zh": "在过去，高级别核治理的需求是紧迫而明确的，但需要创造对风险和机遇的超越国界的共同理解的过程。", "index": 7762}
{"en": "Successful multilateral responses, like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, continue to be supported by more flexible global platforms, such as the Nuclear Threat Initiative, based on relationships and trust established outside the box of formal multilateralism.", "zh": "核不扩散条约等成功的多边反应机制仍然受到核威胁倡议（Nuclear Threat Initiative）等更灵活的全球平台的支持，其基础是建立在正式多边主义之外的关系和信任。", "index": 7763}
{"en": "This year, as world leaders discuss the next generation of sustainability, development, and climate frameworks, they will need to put their security and mutual dependence at the heart of the responses.", "zh": "今年，世界领导人将讨论下一代可持续性、发展和气候框架，在此过程中，他们需要将安全和互相依赖置于应对措施的核心。", "index": 7764}
{"en": "Here, too, the world will need to create informal platforms that supplement traditional multilateralism.", "zh": "在这方面，世界还需要建立非正式平台以补充传统多边主义。", "index": 7765}
{"en": "In particular, the outdated divisions between rich and poor countries and their responsibilities must be revised.", "zh": "特别是，富国和穷国过时两分法和他们的责任必须重新定义。", "index": 7766}
{"en": "As new powers like China, Brazil, India, and other G-20 economies bid to reform global governance systems, their vulnerability to resource security must invigorate these processes.", "zh": "中国、巴西、印度和等新的大国和其他G-20经济体提出了全球治理体系改革，它们在资源安全方面的脆弱性应该对这些过程起到刺激作用。", "index": 7767}
{"en": "Only then will the world be on track to improve the security of all.", "zh": "惟其如此，世界才会走向改善所有人的安全的道路。", "index": 7768}
{"en": "After Aleppo", "zh": "阿勒颇之后", "index": 7769}
{"en": "DENVER – The end of the fighting in Aleppo will not end the Syrian war, despite the countrywide ceasefire that has just been agreed.", "zh": "丹佛—阿拉破战事的结束不会结束叙利亚战争，尽管已经达成全国停火协议。", "index": 7770}
{"en": "Nor will it ease the suffering of the city’s population, much of which has been displaced.", "zh": "阿勒颇市民的苦难也得不到缓解 — — 其中许多人已经流离失所。", "index": 7771}
{"en": "What the Aleppo siege will do is clinch Syria’s place in history as, to borrow former US Secretary of State Warren Christopher’s phrase, another “problem from hell.”", "zh": "阿勒颇围城赢得了什么呢？ 赢得了叙利亚的历史地位 — — 用美国前国务卿沃伦·克里斯托弗（Warren Christopher）的话说，叙利亚是又一个“来自地狱的问题 ” 。", "index": 7772}
{"en": "And, like other hellish recent regional conflicts, such as those in Bosnia (to which Christopher was referring) and Rwanda, future historians will emphasize a crucial feature of the Syria conflict: the spectacular diplomatic failures that enabled it to escalate.", "zh": "和其他地狱般的近期地区冲突，如波斯尼亚（克里斯托弗的话就是针对波斯尼亚说的）和卢旺达一样，未来历史学家眼中的叙利亚冲突的一个关键特征是外交方面的重大失败导致冲突全面升级。", "index": 7773}
{"en": "Good diplomacy begins with a keen analysis of interests, both of the country in question and of relevant external powers.", "zh": "好的外交必须从敏锐的利益分析开始，分析对象既包括问题所在国家，也包括相关外部力量。", "index": 7774}
{"en": "It demands a careful assessment of how the pursuit of those interests will affect the regional and international order.", "zh": "必须仔细评估追求各种利益如何影响地区和国际秩序。", "index": 7775}
{"en": "And it seeks ways to strengthen the capacity of regional or world powers to help solve problems.", "zh": "必须找出办法增强地区或世界力量帮助解决问题的能力。", "index": 7776}
{"en": "Throughout this process, universally shared and consistently reinforced values – both critical in getting disparate actors to work together to resolve problems and challenges – must provide a moral compass and common ground for action.", "zh": "在整个过程中，必须通过不断得到加强的形成普遍共识的价值观 — — 这既是让众多行动方和衷共济的关键，也是解决问题和挑战的关键 — — 提供道德指南和共同行动基础。", "index": 7777}
{"en": "The key is to ensure that values do not become weapons, deployed by one actor against another in a way that exacerbates tensions and undermines solutions.", "zh": "至关重要的是确保价值观不会变成某个行动方针对另一个行动方、加剧冲突、破坏解决方案的武器。", "index": 7778}
{"en": "Consider the 1990s Bosnian War – the result of unfinished business from the breakup of the Austrian and Ottoman empires and the creation of nation-states earlier in the twentieth century.", "zh": "以20世纪90年代的波斯尼亚战争为例 — — 这场战争是20世纪初奥地利和奥斯曼帝国分裂、民族国家建立的历史遗留问题的演化结果。", "index": 7779}
{"en": "The conflict erupted in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, at a moment when one set of international organizing principles had collapsed and a new set had not yet been created.", "zh": "这场冲突爆发于冷战刚刚结束时，正逢一套国际组织原则崩溃、新一套组织原则尚未建立起来的空隙。", "index": 7780}
{"en": "Partly as a result of this, the conflict was characterized by large-scale civilian carnage and human-rights violations.", "zh": "部分拜这一因素所赐，这场冲突引起了大规模杀戮平民和侵犯人权的局面。", "index": 7781}
{"en": "But, as a test for the new world order, the Bosnian War ended up catalyzing change in the international community’s institutional structure (including the establishment of war crimes tribunals).", "zh": "但是，作为新世界秩序的一次考验，波斯尼亚战争最终促使国际社会制度结构发生了改变（包括建立了战争罪法庭 ） 。", "index": 7782}
{"en": "Could the nascent post-Cold War system handle the inchoate problems of the former Soviet Union?", "zh": "方兴未艾的冷战后体系能否处理前苏联解体后所爆发的第一批问题？", "index": 7783}
{"en": "Could NATO take on new roles and missions?", "zh": "北约能否担任新角色、完成新任务？", "index": 7784}
{"en": "Could the West work with the new Russian Federation?", "zh": "西方能否与新建立的俄罗斯联邦合作？", "index": 7785}
{"en": "Could the transatlantic relationship weather the storm?", "zh": "跨大西洋关系能否抵挡这场风暴？", "index": 7786}
{"en": "The answer to all of these questions turned out to be yes.", "zh": "所有这些问题的答案最后都是肯定的。", "index": 7787}
{"en": "As a result, though the region continues to be beset by serious problems, the gates of hell have remained closed – as they have in Rwanda.", "zh": "因此，尽管该地区一直受到严重问题的困扰，但地狱之门仍然没有打开 — — 卢旺达也是如此。", "index": 7788}
{"en": "And yet, just 20 years later, it seems that the world’s collective memory of how to cooperate has failed.", "zh": "但是，仅仅过去了20年，世界关于合作的集体记忆就好像失效了。", "index": 7789}
{"en": "To be sure, there was never a clear path to peace in Syria.", "zh": "平心而论，叙利亚从未出现明晰的和平路径。", "index": 7790}
{"en": "President Bashar al-Assad, whose forces now control all of Aleppo for the first time since 2012, is a brutal dictator who has waged war on his own people, including civilians, and has even used chemical weapons.", "zh": "目前，叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德的部队自2012年以来首次重新控制了阿勒颇全境。 而巴沙尔是一位野蛮的独裁者，他想自己的人民（包括平民）发动战争，甚至使用化学武器。", "index": 7791}
{"en": "The temptation to seek regime change – a goal embraced by the United States and some European countries – was understandable.", "zh": "叙利亚人民寻求颠覆政权 — — 美国和一些欧洲国家支持这一目标 — — 是可以理解的。", "index": 7792}
{"en": "Yet, in a display of spectacularly incompetent diplomacy, the US set about pursuing that goal without any serious effort to marshal international support, or even to take stock of other opinions or interests.", "zh": "但是，美国外交表现得非常无能，它似乎想在完全不组织国际支持、甚至不考虑其他选项或利益的情况下追求这一目标。", "index": 7793}
{"en": "And make no mistake: there are a lot of (often conflicting) opinions and interests.", "zh": "不要弄错了：有许多（常常互相冲突的）观点和利益。", "index": 7794}
{"en": "After all, Syria is strategically perched on the Mediterranean; shares borders with Israel, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq; and, like Iraq, has its own restive Kurdish minority.", "zh": "毕竟，叙利亚是地中海的一个战略要点；与以色列、约旦、土耳其和伊拉克接壤；并且与伊拉克一样，也存在桀骜难驯的库尔德少数民族。", "index": 7795}
{"en": "It is not the kind of country to which international and regional powers would be indifferent.", "zh": "这绝不是国际和地区力量能够忽视的国家。", "index": 7796}
{"en": "In fact, when Western powers called for regime change, other actors – including Iran, Russia, and Shia interests in neighboring Lebanon – objected.", "zh": "事实上，当西方力量要求政权更迭时，其他行动方 — — 包括伊朗、俄罗斯和相邻的黎巴嫩的什叶派利益集团 — — 表示反对。", "index": 7797}
{"en": "Nonetheless, the US soldiered on with its own poorly formulated agenda, supplying weapons to virtually unknown combatants on the ground before properly vetting them.", "zh": "尽管如此，美国一意孤行地推行自身相当拙劣的日程，在没有进行合理评估的情况下就为当地它几乎毫无所知的战斗力量提供武器。", "index": 7798}
{"en": "That gave the Assad regime’s allies all the justification they needed to supply weapons of their own.", "zh": "这给了阿萨德政权的盟友所需要的口实提供它们自身的武器。", "index": 7799}
{"en": "Some argue that, if the US had just provided more weapons sooner, Assad would not have had time to galvanize support and hold onto power.", "zh": "有人认为，如果美国更快地提供更多武器，阿萨德根本没有时间巩固支持、坚守权力。", "index": 7800}
{"en": "But that neglects the strategic importance of Syria to so many external powers, as well as the fragmentation and unpredictability of the US-based combatants.", "zh": "但这忽视了叙利亚对如此众多的外部力量的战略重要性，以及依靠美国的战斗力量的分散性和不可预测性。", "index": 7801}
{"en": "America’s real mistake was failing to engage with all sides, including Assad and the Sunni opposition, which it deemed sectarian.", "zh": "美国的真正错误是没有协调所有各方，包括阿萨德和它视为宗派力量的逊尼派反对派。", "index": 7802}
{"en": "(During the Bosnian War, by contrast, the US talked to rump Yugoslavia’s ruler, Slobodan Milošević.)", "zh": "（相反，在波斯尼亚战争期间，美国与南斯拉夫统治者米洛舍维奇谈判。", "index": 7803}
{"en": "With that narrow-minded approach – reflected in the lack of any articulated vision for a post-war Syria – the US effectively handed the diplomatic reins over to Russia.", "zh": "）美国的思维狭隘的方针 — — 它没有描述任何战后叙利亚愿景就是明证 — — 将外交主动权拱手让给了俄罗斯。", "index": 7804}
{"en": "Now, the US is essentially playing the role of agitator, offering little more than displays of moral outrage and stale references to a stillborn Geneva process.", "zh": "如今，美国实际上已经沦为“搅屎棍 ” ， 除了表示义愤和言必称早已流产的日内瓦进程的陈词滥调再也拿不出什么东西。", "index": 7805}
{"en": "Reacting to the carnage in Aleppo, Samantha Power, the US ambassador to the United Nations, was reduced to demanding of Assad’s Russian ally, “Are you truly incapable of shame?”", "zh": "对于阿勒颇大屠杀，美国驻联合国大使萨蔓莎·��威尔（Samantha Power）竟然卑微到质问阿萨德的俄罗斯盟友“你们真的没有羞耻感吗？", "index": 7806}
{"en": "Meanwhile, the conflict rages on, with severe spillover effects on US allies like the European Union.", "zh": "”与此同时，冲突仍在肆虐，并给欧盟的美国盟友造成严重的 溢出效应。", "index": 7807}
{"en": "As for Russia, it, too, is pursuing a version of diplomacy that utterly lacks inclusiveness.", "zh": "至于俄罗斯，它也在追求严重缺乏包容性的外交。", "index": 7808}
{"en": "It is working with Turkey (a NATO member that seems increasingly lost at sea) to bring the Syrian opposition and representatives of the Assad government together in Kazakhstan for a new series of peace talks, facilitated by the ceasefire, of which Russia and Turkey are guarantors.", "zh": "它与土耳其（在海上日渐式微的北约成员国）合作，让叙利亚反对派和阿萨德政府代表在哈萨克斯坦会晤讨论新的和平谈判，由俄罗斯和土耳其作保的停火协议便是一个促进因素。", "index": 7809}
{"en": "Iran will be there.", "zh": "伊朗也将出席。", "index": 7810}
{"en": "But where are the Sunni Arab states?", "zh": "但逊尼派阿拉伯国家呢？", "index": 7811}
{"en": "More important, where is the US?", "zh": "更重要的是，美国呢？", "index": 7812}
{"en": "It is often observed that, every four years, the US does without a foreign policy.", "zh": "人们常常观察到，每隔四年，美国就会迷失于外交政策。", "index": 7813}
{"en": "This time, it seems to have gotten an early start.", "zh": "这一回，迷失来的早了一些。", "index": 7814}
{"en": "Alexander Hamilton’s Eurozone Tour", "zh": "亚历山大·汉密尔顿的欧元区之旅", "index": 7815}
{"en": "PRINCETON – Europe’s debt crisis has piqued Europeans’ interest in American precedents for federal finance.", "zh": "普林斯顿—欧洲债务危机激发了欧洲人关于美国联邦财政经验的兴趣。", "index": 7816}
{"en": "For many, Alexander Hamilton has become a contemporary hero.", "zh": "对许多人来说，亚历山大·汉密尔顿称得上是一位当代英雄。", "index": 7817}
{"en": "Perhaps one day his face should appear on the €10 banknote.", "zh": "或许有朝一日他的头像会出现在10欧元的钞票上。", "index": 7818}
{"en": "Specifically, for European states groaning under unbearable debt burdens, Hamilton’s negotiation in 1790 of the new federal government’s assumption of the states’ large debts looks like a tempting model.", "zh": "具体而言，对于不堪债务重负的欧洲国家而言，汉密尔顿1790年就联邦政府关于各州大量债务开展的谈判是一个极具吸引力的模板。", "index": 7819}
{"en": "Indeed, after Thomas Sargent won the Nobel Prize in Economics last year, he cited it as a precedent in his acceptance speech.", "zh": "事实上，托马斯·萨金特（Thomas Sargent）去年获得诺贝尔奖之后，在获奖演说中援引了汉密尔顿的举措作为先例。", "index": 7820}
{"en": "Hamilton argued – against James Madison and Thomas Jefferson – that the debts accumulated by the states during the War of Independence should be assumed by the federation.", "zh": "汉密尔顿针对詹姆斯·麦迪逊和托马斯·杰斐逊的观点争锋相对地指出，各州在独立战争期间所积累的债务应该被认为是联邦债务。", "index": 7821}
{"en": "There were two sides to his case, one practical, the other philosophical.", "zh": "他的观点包括两个方面，一是实践方面，而是理论方面。", "index": 7822}
{"en": "Initially, the most appealing argument for his plan was that it would provide greater security to creditors, and thus reduce interest rates, from the 6% at which the states financed their debt to 4%. Hamilton emphasized the importance of a commitment to sound finance as a prerequisite to public economy.", "zh": "首先，汉密尔顿计划中最吸引人的角度在于它可以为债权人提供更大的安全性，从而降低了利率，将利率从各州融债时约定的6%降低到了4 % 。", "index": 7823}
{"en": "“When the credit of a country is in any degree questionable,” he argued, “it never fails to give an extravagant premium upon all the loans it has occasion to make.”", "zh": "汉密尔顿强调，作为公共经济的先决条件，健康财政的承诺是很重要的。", "index": 7824}
{"en": "While that logic certainly appeals to Europeans today, Hamilton insisted on a stronger reason for pursuing sound finance than merely the pursuit of expediency.", "zh": "汉密尔顿的逻辑对当今欧洲十分适用，但当初汉密尔顿之所以要追求健康财政，并不仅是为了便宜行事，而是有更深的理由。", "index": 7825}
{"en": "There is, he maintained, “an intimate connection between public virtue and public happiness.”", "zh": "他说 ， “ 公德和公共福祉之间具有紧密联系。", "index": 7826}
{"en": "That virtue consisted in honoring commitments, and it would build solidarity in the new political community of the United States.", "zh": "”公德在于信守承诺，能够为合众国营造团结的新政治氛围。", "index": 7827}
{"en": "Indeed, public virtue made federal finance what he called “the powerful cement of our union.”", "zh": "事实上，公德让联邦财政成为汉密尔顿口中的“我们的联邦的强力粘合剂 ” 。", "index": 7828}
{"en": "The condition for success in the American case was that the US raised its own revenue, with federally administered customs houses initially providing the bulk of its receipts.", "zh": "美国能够成功的条件在于它能获得收入 — — 美国拥有联邦管辖的海关，建国初期，财政收入的大头都来自关税。", "index": 7829}
{"en": "The logic of a need for specific revenue applies also in modern Europe, where a reformed fiscal system might include common administration of value-added tax (with the additional benefit of eliminating a considerable amount of cross-border fraud).", "zh": "这一逻辑 — — 需要具体的收入流 — — 同样适用于现代欧洲，改革后的财政体系可以包括一个共同的增值税机构（这样做还有额外的好处，比如消除数量巨大的跨国欺诈 ） 。", "index": 7830}
{"en": "In the American case, however, unity carried a price: a ceiling was imposed on Virginia’s exposure to the common debt.", "zh": "但是，美国的统一不是没有代价的：弗吉尼亚州就有一个对共同债务敞口的最高上限。", "index": 7831}
{"en": "Only this inducement to the most powerful state in the union persuaded Madison to drop his opposition to the proposal.", "zh": "而正是以此为条件将最强大的州引入联邦才说服了麦迪逊不再反对汉密尔顿的方案。", "index": 7832}
{"en": "That compromise (which also led to the US capital’s relocation to the District of Columbia, on the border of Virginia and Maryland) may serve as a precedent for limiting Germany’s liabilities if Eurobonds, or some other debt-mutualization scheme, are introduced.", "zh": "这一妥协（美国首都最终坐落于弗吉尼亚和马里兰州交界处的哥伦比亚特区也是这一妥协决定的）可以作为在引入欧元债券或其他多边机制时限制德国责任的先例。", "index": 7833}
{"en": "The US experiment in federalized finance was not immediately successful.", "zh": "美国财政联邦化的实验并没有获得马上的成功。", "index": 7834}
{"en": "Two important components of Hamilton’s financial architecture were not realized, or were realized imperfectly.", "zh": "汉密尔顿财政结构中，有两个重要部分无法实现（或无法完美实现 ） 。", "index": 7835}
{"en": "He proposed a model of joint-stock banking on a national scale, which ran into immediate opposition (curiously, his proposal was much more influential in Canada).", "zh": "他提出了在全国范围内建立合资银行业的方案，但立刻招来了反对（有趣的是，这一提案在加拿大产生了重大影响力 ） 。", "index": 7836}
{"en": "Second, opponents eventually blocked his proposal for a national central bank.", "zh": "其次，反对派最终否决了他建立国家中央银行的方案。", "index": 7837}
{"en": "The charter of the First Bank of the United States was allowed to lapse in 1811; a generation later, in 1836, President Andrew Jackson successfully opposed the charter of the Second Bank of the United States.", "zh": "美国第一银行的执照到期日在1811年；25年后，1836年，安德鲁·杰克逊总统成功地否决了美国第二银行的执照。", "index": 7838}
{"en": "Nor did the Hamiltonian scheme of federal finance guarantee a peaceful commonwealth.", "zh": "汉密尔顿的联邦财政担保机制也没有保证联邦的和平。", "index": 7839}
{"en": "In fact, the fiscal union proved to be explosive rather than adhesive.", "zh": "事实上，财政联盟与其说是内敛性的，还不如说是爆发性的。", "index": 7840}
{"en": "As international capital markets developed in the early nineteenth century, state governments borrowed on a large scale, quickly turning them from creditors into debtors.", "zh": "19世纪早期，随着国际资本市场的发展，州政府借贷规模很大，很快就从债权人变成了债务人。", "index": 7841}
{"en": "A wave of state defaults followed in the late 1830’s.", "zh": "接着，在19世纪30年代，爆发了一波州政府违约潮。", "index": 7842}
{"en": "A generation later, in the 1860’s, the Civil War between northern and southern states resulted in large part from a dispute about the character of financial burdens –amp at least from the South’s perspective.", "zh": "几十年后，在19世纪60年代，如何为财政负担定性的争论成为引发美国内战的一大原因，至少南方是这么认为的。", "index": 7843}
{"en": "Abraham Lincoln’s original proposal to end the immoral practice of slavery by compensating slave owners for manumission was unacceptably expensive, so the Union, according to the slave-holding Confederacy, was determined to expropriate the South.", "zh": "亚伯拉罕·林肯最初的建议 — — 补偿奴隶主解放农奴的行为，从而终结不道德的奴隶制 — — 在财政上根本无法承担，因此北方联邦 — — 根据蓄奴联邦的说法 — — 决定剥夺南方的蓄奴权。", "index": 7844}
{"en": "The federal assumption of states’ debts by itself could not guarantee political order.", "zh": "将各州债务算为联邦债务并不能保证政治秩序。", "index": 7845}
{"en": "The Civil War revealed the centrality of a common foundation of morality to Hamilton’s approach to debt and public finance.", "zh": "美国内战表明，对于汉密尔顿的债务和公共财政方法，道德才是共同基础的核心。", "index": 7846}
{"en": "As a result, his approach foundered on the differences between the different states’ conception of morality.", "zh": "因此，在各州道德观念不一的背景下，汉密尔顿的方法失败了。", "index": 7847}
{"en": "Europeans today have latched onto the practical side of Hamilton’s argument – that is, the idea that debt mutualization might be a means to cheaper credit; but they have worked out neither the political institutions, nor the shared public virtue, that Hamilton deemed crucial.", "zh": "如今，欧洲人对汉密尔顿观点的实践方面领会甚深 — — 即债务共同化可以降低信用成本；但对于汉密尔顿认为至关重要的政治制度或共同的公德，欧洲人还任重道远。", "index": 7848}
{"en": "The extended and politicized debate about debt restructuring has made a Hamiltonian solution more difficult, because the credit of the countries that would be party to it has become questionable.", "zh": "欧洲没完没了的关于债务重组的政治化争论使得实行汉密尔顿式的解决方案难上加难，因为其中所牵涉到的国家信用颇为可疑。", "index": 7849}
{"en": "An obvious starting point for a Hamiltonian Europe would be to set some standard limit for federalized national debt – perhaps the tarnished threshold of 60% of GDP that was mandated (without adequate enforcement) by the Maastricht convergence criteria, or perhaps a lower limit.", "zh": "要实现汉密尔顿式的欧洲，显而易见的出发点是设立联邦化国民债务的标准上限，可以是早已被置若罔闻的、缺少强制性的马斯特里赫特大同标准（即不超过GDP的60 % ） ，也可以是更低的上限。", "index": 7850}
{"en": "Debt exceeding that amount would be left to the responsibility of the member states.", "zh": "超过这一限度的债务将由成员国自己负责。", "index": 7851}
{"en": "Collective burden-sharing is in the long run the only non-catastrophic way out of Europe’s current crisis, but that requires a substantially greater degree of political accountability and control on a European level.", "zh": "从长期看，集体共担是走出欧元区当下危机的唯一无破坏性的方式，但这要求持续地增加政治可问责性以及欧洲层面的控制。", "index": 7852}
{"en": "The lesson to be learned from Hamilton and the US is that the necessary institutions will not function without a greater degree of moral consensus as well.", "zh": "汉密尔顿和美国留给欧洲人的教训是，即使有了必要的制度，如果没有较大程度的一直道德观，这些制度也起不了作用。", "index": 7853}
{"en": "Can Navalny Save Russia?", "zh": "纳瓦尔尼能拯救俄罗斯吗？", "index": 7854}
{"en": "MOSCOW – In 1811, assessing the possibility – or, rather, the impossibility – of Russia ever undergoing a Western-style transformation, the diplomat and counter-Enlightenment philosopher Joseph de Maistre famously wrote, “Every nation has the government it deserves.”", "zh": "莫斯科—1811年，外交家、反启蒙主义哲学家迈斯特（Joseph de Maistre）在评估俄罗斯发生西方式转型的可能性 — — 或者说不可能性 — — 时写下了一段著名的话 ： “ 每一个国家都有它应得的政府。", "index": 7855}
{"en": "Fourteen years later, the Decembrist revolt – a movement of poets and army officers to topple Czar Nicholas I and establish a constitutional monarchy – seemed to refute de Maistre’s claim.", "zh": "”十四年后，十二月革命 — — 诗人和军官推翻沙皇尼古拉斯一世、实现君主立宪的运动 — — 似乎驳倒了迈斯特的结论。", "index": 7856}
{"en": "Yet the revolt was suppressed, and the Decembrists were executed or exiled.", "zh": "但革命遭到了镇压，十二月革命党人被处死或流放。", "index": 7857}
{"en": "One doomed officer famously declared, “You can’t hang us all.”", "zh": "一位被处决的官员说了一句名言 ： “ 你无法绞死我们所有人。 ”", "index": 7858}
{"en": "Russia’s brutal twentieth century, with its totalitarianism and gulags, nearly proved that officer – and de Maistre – wrong.", "zh": "俄罗斯的野蛮二十世纪及其集权主义和古拉格几乎证明了这位官员 — — 以及迈斯特 — — 的错误。", "index": 7859}
{"en": "No one “deserves” to be ruled so monstrously.", "zh": "没人“应得”被如此残暴统治的命运。", "index": 7860}
{"en": "An estimated 20 million Russians perished under Stalin’s rule, and the rest were paralyzed with terror.", "zh": "据估计，2000万俄罗斯人丧生于斯大林的统治，其余人也在恐怖中惶惶不可终日。", "index": 7861}
{"en": "The twenty-first century has been kinder to Russians, at least so far.", "zh": "二十一世纪对俄罗斯人来说要和善得多，至少到目前是如此。", "index": 7862}
{"en": "But, while terror and famine have been absent, many of the oppressive tactics of the past have been revived under Vladimir Putin’s misrule, now in its 14th year.", "zh": "但是，尽管恐怖和饥馑已不复存在，但许多过去的镇压手段在普京的暴政下 — — 目前正处于第14年 — — 卷土重来。", "index": 7863}
{"en": "Since 2003, when the billionaire oil oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested for alleged embezzlement and fraud – after he dared to support Putin’s political opponents – Russia’s elite has been largely brought to heel.", "zh": "2003年，亿万富翁、石油寡头霍尔多科夫斯基（Mikhail Khodorkovsky）因受控贪污和欺诈被捕 — — 此前，他干预支持普京的政敌 — — 自此以后，大部分俄罗斯精英变得卑躬屈膝。", "index": 7864}
{"en": "None of them envisaged rotting in a labor camp like Khodorkovsky.", "zh": "没人敢设想像霍尔多科夫斯基那样被关进劳动营。", "index": 7865}
{"en": "Under Putin, it seems, de Maistre’s maxim has received a new lease on life.", "zh": "在普京治下，迈斯特似乎又要一语成谶。", "index": 7866}
{"en": "Then in 2011, massive protests against Putin and his party of “crooks and thieves” erupted, and Alexei Navalny, who coined that epithet, became the face of Russia’s opposition.", "zh": "接着，在2011年，俄罗斯爆发了针对普京及其“骗子和小偷”党的大规模示威 ， “ 骗子和小偷”这一称呼的始作俑者纳瓦尔尼（Alexei Navalny）成了俄罗斯反对派的代言人。", "index": 7867}
{"en": "Navalny, a 37-year-old anti-corruption lawyer, has been a thorn in Putin’s side ever since.", "zh": "这位37岁的反腐律师自此被视为普京的眼中钉。", "index": 7868}
{"en": "Recently, he announced that he has presidential ambitions; in the meantime, he is seeking to become the mayor of Moscow (arguably the second most important political post in Russia).", "zh": "最近，他声称有雄心竞选总统；与此同时，他还寻求成为莫斯科市长（被认为是俄罗斯第二重要的政治职位 ） 。", "index": 7869}
{"en": "The mayoral campaign is now in full swing, with the election on September 8 the first in Moscow in ten years, as Putin had simply been appointing loyalists as mayors and governors throughout the country.", "zh": "莫斯科市长选战目前正如火如荼，即将于9月8日举行的选举时莫斯科近十年来的第一次选举，在此期间，普京一直任命亲信为俄罗斯各大城市市长和州长。", "index": 7870}
{"en": "The incumbent mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, who has the full support of the Kremlin political-media machine, has been receiving personal-approval ratings above 90% in recent opinion polls.", "zh": "现任莫斯科市长索比亚宁（Sergey Sobyanin）拥有克里姆林政治宣传机器的全力支持，在当前的民调中获得了90%以上的个人支持率。", "index": 7871}
{"en": "But Navalny’s approval ratings are not far behind, at 80%, and he has achieved them entirely on his own.", "zh": "但纳瓦尔尼的支持率也不遑多让，达到了80 % ， 且几乎完全是靠一己之力获得的。", "index": 7872}
{"en": "Navalny’s candidacy received a recent boost when he became a convicted criminal, following a trial that resembled Khodorkovsky’s in terms of blatant political manipulation.", "zh": "最近纳瓦尔尼的竞选活动因为他被政治操纵之赤裸堪与霍尔多科夫斯基案相提并论的定罪而获得了提振。", "index": 7873}
{"en": "Accused of fraud, Navalny received a five-year prison sentence for allegedly embezzling from Kirovles, a provincial timber company.", "zh": "纳瓦尔尼被控欺诈，因为挪用省级木材公司Kirovles公款而被判处五年有期徒刑。", "index": 7874}
{"en": "But, in an unusual twist, Navalny was released from custody pending appeal of his conviction only a day after it was handed down.", "zh": "但是，经过一番不同寻常的周折，在判决下达仅仅一天后，纳瓦尔尼就从监禁中被释放。", "index": 7875}
{"en": "That, some say, was because his supporters immediately took to the streets.", "zh": "有人说，这是因为他的支持者立刻涌上了街头。", "index": 7876}
{"en": "The likelier motivation is that Putin decided to let the election play out, relying on Navalny to lose.", "zh": "更有可能的动机是普京决定让选举这出戏演完，他认定纳瓦尔尼会输。", "index": 7877}
{"en": "In that case, Sobyanin, who was appointed in 2010, would gain the legitimacy that he has lacked until now, and the opposition movement would be discredited in the capital, whose residents form the core of Navalny’s political base.", "zh": "果真如此的话，2010年被任命的索比亚宁将获得他至今未能获得的合法性，而反对运动将在首都 — — 纳瓦尔尼政治支持者的主要来源 — — 失去立足点。", "index": 7878}
{"en": "But what if Navalny is elected?", "zh": "但如果纳瓦尔尼当选怎么办？", "index": 7879}
{"en": "Would his sentence be commuted, postponed, or annulled?", "zh": "他的刑期会被缩短、中止还是取消？", "index": 7880}
{"en": "Would he go to prison, Muscovites’ choice notwithstanding?", "zh": "还是会无视莫斯科人民的选择被关进监狱？", "index": 7881}
{"en": "In a new challenge to de Maistre’s maxim, almost 200 young businessmen overcame the fear inspired by Khodorkovsky’s fate and donated funds to Navalny’s campaign.", "zh": "在这一迈斯特谶语的新挑战中，近200名年轻商人克服了来自霍多尔科夫斯基命运的恐惧，为纳瓦尔尼的选战慷慨解囊。", "index": 7882}
{"en": "Thirty-seven of them signed what they called a new “social contract.”", "zh": "其中37人在他们所谓的新“社会契约”上签了字。", "index": 7883}
{"en": "According to their manifesto, they “expect Navalny to defend the rule of law, support independent courts, and ensure that officials are really accountable before society.”", "zh": "根据他们的宣言，他们“期待纳瓦尔尼捍卫法治精神，支持司法独立，并确保社会真正可以问责官员。", "index": 7884}
{"en": "They are investing “reputational, financial, organizational, and other resources” in a man who promises to hire competent advisers and free the city – and eventually the country – from endemic corruption and abuse of power.", "zh": "”他们将“信誉、财务、组织和其他资源”投资在承诺延请胜任顾问、让莫斯科 — — 最终是俄罗斯 — — 摆脱腐败和权力滥用弊端的人身上。", "index": 7885}
{"en": "Most of these young entrepreneurs have risen within the “knowledge economy.”", "zh": "这些年轻企业家大多崛起于“知识经济 ” 。", "index": 7886}
{"en": "They include the inventor of a cloud-computing service, the founder of an online luxury-goods business, a developer of new banking technologies, and the creator of a social-networking platform for doctors.", "zh": "他们但中有云计算服务发明者、在线奢侈品企业创始人、新银行技术开发者、和医生社交网络平台创始人。", "index": 7887}
{"en": "All of them have good educations, and many hold American business degrees.", "zh": "他们所有人都受过良好的教育，许多拥有美国商学学位。", "index": 7888}
{"en": "Many of these business leaders would have preferred to stay out of politics; but Russia’s poor education system, economic feudalism, official homophobia, and other festering problems have left them no choice.", "zh": "这些商业领袖大多更愿意置身政治圈外；但俄罗斯落后的教育系统、经济封建主义、官方对同性恋的憎恶以及其他恶性问题让他们别无选择。", "index": 7889}
{"en": "And Putin himself has become an insufferably vulgar embarrassment.", "zh": "普金本身也变成了一桩令人难以忍受的恶俗闹剧。", "index": 7890}
{"en": "To be sure, Navalny’s backers could emigrate comfortably; but, invigorated by their candidate’s campaign, they are willing to see whether he can make a difference.", "zh": "平心而论，纳瓦尔尼的支持者可以方便地移民国外；但是，受纳瓦尔尼选战的鼓舞，他们愿意看看他能否带来不同。", "index": 7891}
{"en": "Indeed, Navalny has become the only hope for competitive politics in Russia.", "zh": "事实上，纳瓦尔尼已经成为俄罗斯竞争政治的唯一希望。", "index": 7892}
{"en": "At the same time, Navalny’s unapologetic nationalism makes many people nervous.", "zh": "与此同时，纳瓦尔尼拒不让步的民族主义立场让许多人感到紧张。", "index": 7893}
{"en": "And, while Russian leaders may start out as reformers, they do not often remain so.", "zh": "而尽管俄罗斯领导人不乏以改革者身份登场者，但能坚持下来的人很少。", "index": 7894}
{"en": "Boris Yeltsin began the 1990’s as a courageous democrat, only to end up a corrupt, bibulous buffoon, while Putin initially vowed to bring law and order to the post-Yeltsin chaos.", "zh": "叶利钦以勇敢的民主派身份开启了1990年代，但在结束政治生涯时，他的形象是一个腐败的醉鬼，而普京在上任之初也宣誓要给叶利钦身后的混乱局面带来法律和秩序。", "index": 7895}
{"en": "So Moscow’s mayoral election is a moment of truth for Navalny, the business leaders investing in his campaign, all Muscovites, and perhaps Russia as a whole.", "zh": "因此，莫斯科市长选举是纳瓦尔尼、投资于他的商业领袖、所有莫斯科市民甚至整个俄罗斯的真相时刻。", "index": 7896}
{"en": "As in the time of the Decembrists, anyone in Russia can suffer from overweening government power, regardless of political belief.", "zh": "正如十二月革命时期，任何俄罗斯人遭遇恣睢的政府权力侵害，不管他的政见如何。", "index": 7897}
{"en": "Fear and apathy have become riskier than taking a stand.", "zh": "恐惧和冷漠比现实立场更加危险。", "index": 7898}
{"en": "But the question remains: Come September 8, can Navalny and his supporters change Russia’s political culture of fear, or was de Maistre right after all?", "zh": "但问题依然：9月8日来临时，纳瓦尔尼及其支持者能否改变俄罗斯恐惧的政治文化？ 还是迈斯特会笑到最后？", "index": 7899}
{"en": "How We Lose Our Marbles", "zh": "我们是怎样丧失理智的", "index": 7900}
{"en": "ATHENS – George Clooney has reignited a longstanding debate after suggesting, in response to a Greek journalist’s question, that removing the Parthenon Marbles, known in Britain as the Elgin Marbles, from London’s British Museum and returning them to their ancient home in Athens would be “the right thing to do.”", "zh": "雅典 — — 在回答希腊记者提问时，乔治·克鲁尼表示让现存于伦敦大英博物馆的帕台农神庙大理石浮雕（英国也称之为埃尔金浮雕）回归其古代的家园雅典是“正确的选择 ” 。", "index": 7901}
{"en": "In the early nineteenth century, the friezes and sculptures were removed from the Parthenon by Lord Elgin, Britain’s ambassador to the Ottoman Empire from 1799 to 1803.", "zh": "十九世纪初，1799至1803年任英国驻奥斯曼帝国大使的埃尔金勋爵将雕像和饰物搬出了帕台农神庙。", "index": 7902}
{"en": "Elgin sold them to the British government, which put them in the British Museum.", "zh": "埃尔金把雕像出售给英国政府，英国政府将这些文物放在大英博物馆展出。", "index": 7903}
{"en": "Greece wants them back.", "zh": "现在希腊想要回这些文物。", "index": 7904}
{"en": "The occasion for this latest round of historical jousting is the release of Clooney’s new film The Monuments Men, which details Allied efforts to rescue art works from the Nazis during World War II.", "zh": "克鲁尼新片《古迹卫士》的上映引发了本轮历史争议，这部影片描述的是二战时期从纳粹手中拯救艺术品的联合行动。", "index": 7905}
{"en": "His comments infuriated London’s provocative mayor, Boris Johnson, himself a classics scholar and author, who shot back that Clooney’s position on the issue was similar to that of the Nazis portrayed in his film.", "zh": "克鲁尼此番言论却激怒了火爆的伦敦市长及古典学者兼作家鲍里斯·约翰逊，他反唇相讥讽刺克鲁尼在此问题上的立场与影片中描述的纳粹非常相似。", "index": 7906}
{"en": "But the film is of less interest in this dispute than the identity of the characters involved.", "zh": "但影片的核心与其说是关注这场争议，还不如说是展现角色性格。", "index": 7907}
{"en": "Perhaps the most important question is this: Whom is the public inclined to believe – Clooney or Johnson (or perhaps the Nazis)?", "zh": "或许最重要的问题是：公众更愿意相信谁 — — 克鲁尼还是约翰逊（或者纳粹 ） ？", "index": 7908}
{"en": "Of course, one might ask why the people involved should matter at all; surely the facts of the case should speak for themselves.", "zh": "当然，有人可能会问这与当时的参与者有什么关系；本案的事实理应是不言自明的。", "index": 7909}
{"en": "And yet, on questions such as this – as with so many important political, social, economic, and cultural issues – what we come to believe is not based on the facts alone, if at all.", "zh": "但这件事就像很多重要的政治、社会、经济和文化问题一样，人们的看法远不止立足于事实。", "index": 7910}
{"en": "Sometimes we may indeed think deeply about the pros and cons of each argument, actively seeking information and data that would support one view over another; in other cases, however, we rely on a “quick and dirty” evaluation of the arguments, focusing not on evidence, but rather on an advocate’s expertise or popularity.", "zh": "有时我们的确会深入思考各种观点孰优孰劣，并积极搜寻一种观点胜过其他观点的事实和证据；但也有时我们迅速对观点做出不负责任的判断，我们真正关注的并不是证据，而是观点倡导者的专业性或受欢迎度。", "index": 7911}
{"en": "Social and cognitive psychologists have long understood these two basic processes in their study of “dual-process” models, which explain how we process information and eventually form an opinion.", "zh": "社会及认知心理学家早就在对人类处理信息及最终判断的“双进程”模型的研究中了解了这两种基本进程。", "index": 7912}
{"en": "We take the peripheral route to information processing when buying, say, a toaster on a whim, whereas we take the so-called central route – thoroughly considering technical, safety, and aesthetic features – when buying a car.", "zh": "我们在一时兴起购买烤面包机时只经过末梢区域的神经路线，但我们在选购汽车时却要经过所谓的中枢路线 — — 即全面衡量技术、安全和美学特征。", "index": 7913}
{"en": "The systematic study of persuasion began during World War II, when the US Army recognized that fighting a nation mesmerized by Hitler would require bolstering troop motivation and rallying popular support for the war.", "zh": "对说服能力的系统性研究始于二战，因为美军意识到与被希特勒蛊惑的民族作战需要鼓舞军队士气，并说服民众支持战争。", "index": 7914}
{"en": "They sought help from Yale University psychologist Carl Hovland and his associates, who produced what has become a well-known model of persuasion, comprising three groups of variables related to the communicator, the audience, and the message.", "zh": "他们向耶鲁大学心理学家卡尔·霍夫兰及其同事寻求帮助，前者的研究结果成就了由沟通者、受众和信息等三组变量组成的著名的说服模型。", "index": 7915}
{"en": "Hovland drew upon ideas dating back to Aristotle’s Rhetoric, which argued that persuasiveness is built on the communicator’s ethical character, the audience’s emotional state, and the logic of the argument, the latter being the most powerful.", "zh": "霍夫兰借鉴了亚里士多德的思想，后者指出说服能力取决于沟通者的道德品质、受众的情绪状态还有最重要的 — — 论证的逻辑性。", "index": 7916}
{"en": "Psychological research has shown that any one of these three can be persuasive, depending on the speaker’s attractiveness or the audience’s predisposition.", "zh": "心理学研究表明这三点当中的任何一点都可以很有说服力，而说服力的大小取决于演讲者的魅力以及听众自身的倾向性。", "index": 7917}
{"en": "For example, star-struck female film fans may be especially prone to believe any utterance from Hollywood’s most famous silver fox. Or, in the case of the Nazis, fear may predispose the audience to be persuaded.", "zh": "比方说，迷恋明星的女性影迷可能特别容易相信好莱坞著名银狐的观点，或者在涉及纳粹的情况下，恐惧会使听众很容易被说服。", "index": 7918}
{"en": "But in most cases, when people are confronted with matters of great importance, they are more likely to use the so-called central route to information processing, and rightly so.", "zh": "但多数情况下当面对重要问题时，人们更有可能采取所谓信息处理的中枢路线，而且这也是理所当然的。", "index": 7919}
{"en": "Issues of world cultural heritage, for example, deserve conscious, thoughtful deliberation of the facts.", "zh": "比方说世界文化遗产问题就需要自觉、全面的考虑现实情况。", "index": 7920}
{"en": "Indeed, it is our duty, and the very basis of any successful civilization, that important decisions are made only after scrutinizing all relevant information and weighing the relative merits of every position.", "zh": "事实上，在权衡所有信息和每种立场的相对优劣后作出重要决策既是我们的义务，也是任何成功文明的立足点。", "index": 7921}
{"en": "Once that duty has been fulfilled, a logical person will understand that the Parthenon Marbles, long held by a former imperial power’s flagship museum, were violently severed from the rest of the Parthenon sculptures – an outrage against art and an unhealed scar inflicted by the British on the long-suffering Greek people.", "zh": "一旦履行了这项义务，理性的人就应该明白由曾几何时的帝国主义代表性博物馆长期把持的帕台农神庙大理石浮雕被与其余帕台农神庙雕塑硬生生地割裂开来 — — 这是对艺术的粗暴践踏，也是英国在多灾多难的希腊人民尚未愈合的伤口上又撒了一把盐。", "index": 7922}
{"en": "At that point, only one conclusion is possible: The plundered Marbles must be reunited in their historical home and exhibited to the world as the ancient artists intended.", "zh": "因此，只有一个可能的结论：被夺走的大理石雕像必须回归其历史家园，按照古代艺术家的意愿向全世界展出。", "index": 7923}
{"en": "Persuaded?", "zh": "被我说服了？", "index": 7924}
{"en": "Perhaps not – I am Greek, after all.", "zh": "也许没有 — — 毕竟我是希腊人。", "index": 7925}
{"en": "But do not take Clooney’s word for it, either (or Johnson’s).", "zh": "但不要听信克鲁尼，也不能盲从约翰逊。", "index": 7926}
{"en": "Deciding the disposition of the world’s cultural patrimony is not like buying a toaster.", "zh": "决定世界文化遗产的归属不像买面包机那样简单。", "index": 7927}
{"en": "Living Big Data", "zh": "活的大数据", "index": 7928}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Big data is made from the digital trail that we leave behind when we use credit cards, mobile phones, or the Web.", "zh": "美国剑桥—大数据来自我们使用信用卡、移动电话或网络后留下的数字痕迹。", "index": 7929}
{"en": "Used carefully and accurately, these data give us unprecedented scope to understand our society, and improve the way we live and work.", "zh": "小心正确地使用这些数据能给我们带来前所未有的角度理解我们的社会，改善我们生活和工作的方式。", "index": 7930}
{"en": "But what works in theory may not translate well in the real world, where complex human interactions cannot always be captured, even by the most sophisticated models.", "zh": "但理论上有效并不意味着在现实世界中管用，在现实世界中，复杂的人际互动未必总能把握，即便你使用最现金的模型。", "index": 7931}
{"en": "Big data requires us to experiment on a big scale.", "zh": "大数据要求我们进行大规模实验。", "index": 7932}
{"en": "My own laboratory, for example, is building a Web site which, based on Google maps, uses society’s digital trail to map poverty, infant mortality, crime rates, changes in GDP, and other social indicators, neighborhood by neighborhood – all of which will be updated daily.", "zh": "比如，我自己的实验室正在建设基于谷歌地图的一个网站，该网站使用社会的数字痕迹勾勒贫困、婴儿死亡率、犯罪率、GDP变化和其他社会指标地图，并以社区为单位显示，每日更新。", "index": 7933}
{"en": "This new capability allows viewers to see, for example, where government initiatives are working or failing.", "zh": "这一新功能能让访问者了解（比如）某地的政府计划是见效了还是失败了。", "index": 7934}
{"en": "But, while such impressive visualization tools can dramatically enhance transparency and public knowledge, they are surprisingly limited when applied to solving society’s problems.", "zh": "但是，尽管这些令人瞩目的可视化工具能够极大地增加透明度和公共知识，但在被用于解决社会问题时，它们的作用仍然非常有限。", "index": 7935}
{"en": "One reason is that such rich streams of data encourage spurious correlations.", "zh": "一个原因是如此丰富的数据流引起了不可靠的相关性。", "index": 7936}
{"en": "Even the use of the normal scientific method no longer works; given so many measurements, and so many more potential connections among what’s being measured, our standard statistical tools generate nonsensical results.", "zh": "即使使用常规科学方法也不再管用；在测量指标众多和测量对象之间的潜在关系更多的情况下，我们的标准统计工具已无法产生有意义的结果。", "index": 7937}
{"en": "Without knowing all possible alternatives, we cannot form a limited, testable set of clear hypotheses.", "zh": "在不了解所有可能的替代方法的情况下，我们无法形成一个有限的、可检验的明确假说集。", "index": 7938}
{"en": "And if we can no longer rely on laboratory experiments to test causality, we must test it in the real world, using massive volumes of real-time data.", "zh": "而如果我们能够不再依赖实验室实验检验因果关系，就必须在真实世界中使用大量实时数据进行检验。", "index": 7939}
{"en": "This involves moving beyond the closed, question-and-answer process typical of the lab, and applying our ideas in society, earlier and more frequently than ever before.", "zh": "这需要超越封闭的、以提问-回答为顺序的典型的实验室过程，提早并以比从前任何时候更频繁地在社会中应用我们的思想。", "index": 7940}
{"en": "To see how things work in reality, we must construct living laboratories – that is, communities willing to try new ways of doing things (to be blunt, to act as guinea pigs).", "zh": "为了了解现实中的事物怎样运行，我们必须构建生活实验室 — — 即愿意尝试新方法做事的社区（能够直言，充当小白鼠 ） 。", "index": 7941}
{"en": "An example of such a living lab is the “open data city,” which I launched with the city of Trento in Italy, along with Telecom Italia, Telefónica, the research university Fondazione Bruno Kessler, the Institute for Data Driven Design, and local companies.", "zh": "一个生活实验室的例子是“开放数据城市 ” ， 这是我与意大利电信（Telecom Italia ） 、 西班牙电信（Telefónica ） 、 研究型大学Fondazione Bruno Kessler、数据驱动设计研究所（Institute for Data Driven Design）以及当地公司一起在意大利特兰托市（Trento）开展的实验。", "index": 7942}
{"en": "Importantly, this living lab has the approval and informed consent of all involved; they understand that they are participating in a gigantic experiment whose goal is to create a better way of living.", "zh": "重要的是，这个生活实验室获得了所有参与者的知情同意和批准；他们都知道自己在参与一个巨型实验，目标是创造更好的生活方式。", "index": 7943}
{"en": "One major challenge for a living lab is to protect individual privacy without diminishing the potential for better government.", "zh": "生活实验室的一大主要挑战是保护个人隐私而不影响形成更好的政府的潜力。", "index": 7944}
{"en": "The Trento lab, for example, will pilot my proposed “New Deal on Data,” which gives users greater control over their personal data through trust-network software such as our open PDS (Personal Data Store) system.", "zh": "比如，特兰托实验将试点我提出的“数据新政 ” （ New Deal on Data ） ， 用户将通过信任网络软件 — — 如我们的开放PDS（个人数据存储）系统 — — 得到对自身个人数据的更大的控制权。", "index": 7945}
{"en": "We hope that the ability to share data safely, while protecting privacy, will encourage individuals, companies, and governments to communicate their ideas widely, and so increase productivity and creativity across the entire city.", "zh": "我们希望，在安全共享数据的同时保护隐私的能力能够鼓励个人、公司和政府广泛交流各自的想法，从而提高整个城市的生产率和创造力。", "index": 7946}
{"en": "But the biggest difficulty in using big data to build a better society is being able to develop a human-scale, intuitive understanding of social physics.", "zh": "但使用大数据创造更好社会的最大困难是发展人体尺度的对社会物理学（social physics）的直观理解。", "index": 7947}
{"en": "Although dense, continuous data and modern computation allow us to map many details about society, and to explain how communities might work, such raw mathematical models contain too many variables and complex relationships for most people to understand.", "zh": "尽管非常密集，但连续数据和现代运算能让我们勾勒社会的大量细节，而对于解释社区如何运转，这些原始数学模型包含太多的变量和复杂的关系，大部分人难以理解。", "index": 7948}
{"en": "What is needed is some kind of dialogue between human intuition and the compelling reality of big data – a dialogue that is currently absent from management and government systems.", "zh": "我们需要的是某种形式的人类直觉和大数据的令人信服的现实之间的对话 — — 目前的管理和政府体系中缺少这种对话。", "index": 7949}
{"en": "If big data is to be deployed effectively, people must be able to understand and interpret the relevant statistics.", "zh": "要想有效部署大数据，人们就必须能够理解和解读相关统计数字。", "index": 7950}
{"en": "This calls for a new understanding of human behavior and social dynamics that goes beyond traditional economic and political models.", "zh": "这就需要对超越传统经济和政治模型的人类行为和社会动态做出新的理解。", "index": 7951}
{"en": "Only by developing the science and language of social physics will we be able to make a world of big data a world in which we want to live.", "zh": "只有发展社会物理学的科学和语言，我们才能让大数据世界成为我们愿意生活其中的世界。", "index": 7952}
{"en": "Peril and Promise in Algeria", "zh": "阿尔及利亚的危险和前途", "index": 7953}
{"en": "MADRID – Five years after the start of the so-called Arab Spring, the hope that initially characterized those revolutions has largely been dashed.", "zh": "马德里—所谓的阿拉伯之春爆发已经过去了五年，这些革命最初被寄以厚望，如今，这些希望大多落空。", "index": 7954}
{"en": "In many cases, the revolutions have evolved into brutal and protracted internal conflicts, with no solution in sight.", "zh": "在许多国家，革命演变为残酷的长期国内冲突，看不到解决办法。", "index": 7955}
{"en": "Amid all of this strife, the international community has paid little attention to countries like Algeria, where the revolutionary spirit was stifled while still incipient.", "zh": "在所有这些冲突中，国际社会几乎没人关注阿尔及利亚等国家。 阿尔及利亚的革命精神尚未完全萌发便被扼杀。", "index": 7956}
{"en": "But Algeria’s fate is back on the world’s radar – and not a moment too soon.", "zh": "但阿尔及利亚的命运已经进入了国际社会的视野 — — 差一点就来不及了。", "index": 7957}
{"en": "On February 7, Algeria’s parliament approved a new package of constitutional reforms, which, among other things, limit presidents to two terms (President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the last surviving leader of Algeria’s war of independence against France, has been in office since 1999) and recognize some fundamental freedoms.", "zh": "2月7日，阿尔及利亚议会批准了宪政改革方案。 该方案规定总统只能担任两届（总统波特弗利卡，最后一位尚在人世的阿尔及利亚独立战争领导人，自1999年以来一直担任这一职位 ） ， 并承认了一些基本自由。", "index": 7958}
{"en": "These steps, in the making since 2011, aim to strengthen Algeria’s democratic standing; but they have been widely criticized as insufficient.", "zh": "这些从2011年开始酝酿的措施旨在增强阿尔及利亚的民主；但很多人批评阿尔及利亚做得还不够。", "index": 7959}
{"en": "What is not in doubt is that the reforms come at a sensitive time, when Algeria is plagued by political and economic uncertainty.", "zh": "毫无疑问，改革出现在一个敏感的时刻，阿尔及利亚正面临政治和经济不确定性。", "index": 7960}
{"en": "The “consensus” that supposedly shapes Algerian politics has, in fact, paralyzed decision-making for many years now.", "zh": "事实上，左右阿尔及利亚政治的“共识”多年来一直让决策处于瘫痪状态。", "index": 7961}
{"en": "With the ailing Bouteflika not seen in public for more than a year, important questions have emerged about how the 2019 presidential election will play out.", "zh": "疾病缠身的本特弗利卡已经有一年多时间没有出现在公共视野中，对于2019年总统选举的结果问题重重。", "index": 7962}
{"en": "Efforts over the last three years to curtail the power of the security and intelligence services – in September, Mohamed Mediene, who had been chief of the intelligence services since 1990, was forced to retire – are just one source and manifestation of domestic political tension.", "zh": "过去三年来削减安全和情报部门权力的努力 — — 9月，1990年以来一直担任情报部门主管的梅德尼（Mohamed Mediene）被迫退休 — — 只是问题之一，彰显出国内政治的紧张局面。", "index": 7963}
{"en": "Significant external challenges have exacerbated Algeria’s situation.", "zh": "重大外部挑战加剧了阿尔及利亚的状况。", "index": 7964}
{"en": "In particular, with the oil and gas industry accounting for fully 97% of Algeria’s export income, the sharp decline in oil prices since June 2014 has underscored the unsustainability of the country’s economic model.", "zh": "特别是，石油天然气行业占阿尔及利亚出口收入的97 % ， 2014年6月以来的油价暴跌让阿尔及利亚经济模式难以为继。", "index": 7965}
{"en": "Falling oil revenues mean that Algeria’s government cannot maintain the broad array of subsidies that traditionally served as a social balm, helping prevent protest.", "zh": "石油收入的下降意味着阿尔及利亚政府无法维持传统上作为社会稳定剂、有助于防止动乱的各种补贴。", "index": 7966}
{"en": "The government has already had to increase some taxes, while raising prices for fuel, electricity, and gas.", "zh": "政府已经不得不提高一些税收，同时对燃料、电力和天然气涨价。", "index": 7967}
{"en": "If the price of oil does not rise soon, and Algeria’s leaders are forced to take more drastic measures, social stability could be jeopardized.", "zh": "如果油价不迅速止跌回升，而阿尔及利亚领导人被迫采取更加猛烈的措施，社会稳定有可能崩溃。", "index": 7968}
{"en": "To be sure, some factors may help to stave off social unrest – namely, the population’s memories of the brutal civil war of the 1990s, in which more than 150,000 people were killed.", "zh": "当然，一些因素有助于遏制社会动荡 — — 阿尔及利亚人民对于20世纪90年代的残酷内战仍然记忆犹新，150,000多人在这场战中被杀。", "index": 7969}
{"en": "But, memories fade as time passes, and a new generation of young people lack the same fear of social strife that their parents and grandparents have.", "zh": "但是，记忆将随时间消退，新一代年轻人可没有父辈和祖父辈所具有的对社会冲突的恐惧。", "index": 7970}
{"en": "In this social context, and if economic hardship persists, protests and even revolt may not be a distant prospect.", "zh": "在这一社会环境下，如果经济困难继续下去，示威乃至暴乱都不是遥远的事情。", "index": 7971}
{"en": "To avoid such an outcome, Algeria’s government must work fast to diversify the economy.", "zh": "为了避免这一结果，阿尔及利亚政府必须尽快实现经济多元化。", "index": 7972}
{"en": "But such concerted action will be difficult in the current political environment, especially in view of the government’s increased focus on security challenges in Algeria’s neighborhood.", "zh": "但这类协调行动在当前政治环境中十分困难，特别是考虑到政府的关注点日益集中在阿尔及利亚周边安全挑战上时。", "index": 7973}
{"en": "Given the revolution in Tunisia, the war in Libya, the rebellion of the Tuaregs in Mali, and, most important, the 2013 terrorist attack on Algeria’s large In Amenas gas plant, the country’s leaders are placing an increasingly high priority on regional security.", "zh": "突尼斯革命、利比亚战争、马里图阿雷格人暴动，以及最重要的2013年阿尔及利亚因阿迈纳斯（In Amenas）天然气厂恐怖袭击，这些事件让阿尔及利亚领导人日益重视地区安全。", "index": 7974}
{"en": "Although the constitution explicitly prohibits military intervention in other countries, Algeria has a clear interest – reflected in its foreign policy – in ensuring that its neighbors are stable and capable of dissuading extremist groups.", "zh": "尽管宪法明确规定禁止阿军干预其他国家，但显然阿尔及利亚十分热心于确保邻国稳定并有能力阻止极端势力 — — 其外交政策就是明证。", "index": 7975}
{"en": "For example, in Libya, Algeria has defended a process of inclusive national reconciliation of all forces, in support of efforts by the United Nations to stabilize the country.", "zh": "比如，在利比亚，阿尔及利亚支持协调各方力量的包容性进程，以支持联合国稳定利比亚的行动。", "index": 7976}
{"en": "The United States and Europe have already recognized Algeria’s leadership and cooperation in anti-terror efforts in its neighborhood.", "zh": "美国和欧洲已经认识到阿尔及利亚对于周边反恐行动的领导作用和合作。", "index": 7977}
{"en": "For the European Union, a further strengthening of ties with Algeria is particularly important, given both sides’ interest in the stability of nearby North Africa and the Sahel, as well as Algeria’s potential to help improve the EU’s energy security.", "zh": "对欧盟来说，进一步加强与阿尔及利亚的关系尤其重要，因为北非和萨赫勒地区周边稳定符合双方的利益，而阿尔及利亚也有助于改善欧盟的能源安全。", "index": 7978}
{"en": "One key way Algeria can help improve security cooperation in its region would be to restore diplomatic relations with Morocco.", "zh": "阿尔及利亚帮助改善地区安全合作的一个关键方法是重建与摩洛哥的外交关系。", "index": 7979}
{"en": "True, the countries have been at loggerheads for 40 years, owing to their sovereignty dispute over Western Sahara.", "zh": "诚然，40年来两国因为对西撒哈拉地区的主权争议而争执不断。", "index": 7980}
{"en": "But the economic, commercial, and security-related dividends that renewed cooperation would provide should be enough to persuade them to reconsider this position.", "zh": "但重启合作所带来的经济、商业和安全相关红利应能足以说服它们重新考虑立场。", "index": 7981}
{"en": "If the two North African giants were to recognize their mutual interests and reestablish ties, they would disentangle relations in the Maghreb.", "zh": "如果这两个北非大国愿意承认共同利益，重建关系，就能理顺马格里布地区的关系。", "index": 7982}
{"en": "Algeria’s influence across Africa would also receive a boost.", "zh": "阿尔及利亚在整个非洲的���响力也会得到提高。", "index": 7983}
{"en": "Already, Algeria’s Africa-wide influence may be set to grow.", "zh": "目前，阿尔及利亚的非洲影响力提高已成定局。", "index": 7984}
{"en": "Some have suggested that an Algerian candidate could become Chair of the Commission of the African Union when the current term expires next July.", "zh": "一些人指出，阿尔及利亚候选人可能在明年7月现任主席任期结束后成为非洲联盟委员会主席。", "index": 7985}
{"en": "Here, Algeria’s consistent support for the AU and its commitment to regional security – exemplified in its role in the Mali peace agreement and its hosting of the Libya talks – would speak in its favor.", "zh": "在这方面，阿尔及利亚对非盟的一贯支持以及对地区安全的付出 — — 其在马里和平协议中所扮演的作用以及主办利比亚谈判就是明证 — — 对它十分有利。", "index": 7986}
{"en": "If successful, Algeria would become the first North African country to lead the AU.", "zh": "如果成功，阿尔及利亚将成为首个领导非盟的北非国家。", "index": 7987}
{"en": "The severe challenge posed by falling oil prices and a jittery regional context attest to the urgent need for change in Algeria.", "zh": "石油价格下跌和严峻的地区环境所带来的严重挑战表明阿尔及利亚急需做出变化。", "index": 7988}
{"en": "But if the government acts to unblock the political system, diversify the economy, and ramp up diplomatic efforts, Algeria can emerge stronger and more influential than ever.", "zh": "但如果阿尔及利亚政府采取行动解放政治制度，实现经济多元化，并加强外交措施，阿尔及利亚能够成为比以往任何时候都更加强大、影响力更强的力量。", "index": 7989}
{"en": "The Politics of Machine-Learning Algorithms", "zh": "机器学习算法的政治学", "index": 7990}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Around 1200 BC, the Shang Dynasty in China developed a factory system to build thousands of huge bronze vessels for use in everyday life and ritual ceremonies.", "zh": "华盛顿—大约在公元前1200年，中国商朝就已经有工厂系统制造成千上万件青铜器用于日常和祭祀用途。", "index": 7991}
{"en": "In this early example of mass production, the process of bronze casting required intricate planning and the coordination of large groups of workers, each performing a separate task in precisely the right order.", "zh": "在这个早期大生产的例子中，青铜铸造工艺需要错综复杂的规划和大批工人间的协调，这些工人以精准的顺序，各自完成单独的任务。", "index": 7992}
{"en": "A similarly complex process went into fashioning the famous army of terracotta warriors that Qin Shi Huang, China’s first emperor, unveiled one thousand years later.", "zh": "一千年后，类似的复杂工艺也被用于制造著名的秦始皇兵马俑。", "index": 7993}
{"en": "According to the Asian Art Museum in San Francisco, the statues “were created using an assembly production system that paved the way for advances in mass production and commerce.”", "zh": "据旧金山亚洲艺术博物馆，这些雕像“用奠定大生产和商业基础的流水线生产系统制造。 ”", "index": 7994}
{"en": "Some scholars have speculated that these early forms of prescriptive-work technologies played a large role in shaping Chinese society.", "zh": "一些学者猜测，这些早期规范工作（prescriptive-work）技术的形式对中国社会的形成起到了非常重要的作用。", "index": 7995}
{"en": "Among other things, they seem to have predisposed people to accept bureaucratic structures, a social philosophy emphasizing hierarchy, and a belief that there is a single right way of doing things.", "zh": "它们与其他因素一起，让人们接受了强调层级的官僚制度社会哲学，也让人们相信凡事都有简单的正确方法。", "index": 7996}
{"en": "When industrial factories were introduced in Europe in the nineteenth century, even staunch critics of capitalism such as Friedrich Engels acknowledged that mass production necessitated centralized authority, regardless of whether the economic system was capitalist or socialist.", "zh": "当工业化工厂在十九世纪的欧洲诞生时，就连恩格尔这样的资本主义的坚定批评者也承认，大生产是中央集权的必要条件，不管经济制度是资本主义还是社会主义。", "index": 7997}
{"en": "In the twentieth century, theorists such as Langdon Winner extended this line of thinking to other technologies.", "zh": "在二十世纪，兰登·维纳（Langdon Winner）等理论家将这一思路延伸到技术中。", "index": 7998}
{"en": "He thought that the atom bomb, for example, should be considered an “inherently political artifact,” because its “lethal properties demand that it be controlled by a centralized, rigidly hierarchical chain of command.”", "zh": "他认为 ， （ 比如）原子弹应该被视为“固有政治产物 ” ， 因为它的“致命属性要求它由集中化的刚性命令层级链来控制。 ”", "index": 7999}
{"en": "Today, we can take that thinking even further.", "zh": "如今，我们可以将这一思路延伸到更远。", "index": 8000}
{"en": "Consider machine-learning algorithms, the most important general-purpose technology in use today.", "zh": "考虑机器学习算法。 这是当今所运用的最重要的通用技术。", "index": 8001}
{"en": "Using real-world examples to mimic human cognitive capacities, these algorithms are already becoming ubiquitous in the workplace.", "zh": "这些算法用真实世界的例子来模拟人类认知能力，如今已在职场无处不在。", "index": 8002}
{"en": "But, to capitalize fully on these technologies, organizations must redefine human tasks as prediction tasks, which are more suited to these algorithms’ strengths.", "zh": "但要充分利用这些技术，组织必须重新定义人的任务为预测任务（prediction task ） ， 这更契合这些算法的优势。", "index": 8003}
{"en": "A key feature of machine-learning algorithms is that their performance improves with more data.", "zh": "机器学习算法的一个关键特征是它们的表现会随着数据的增加而改进。", "index": 8004}
{"en": "As a result, the use of these algorithms creates a technological momentum to treat information about people as recordable, accessible data.", "zh": "因此，使用这些算法就形成了一种技术动力，将关于人的信息处理为可记录、可调用的数据。", "index": 8005}
{"en": "Like the system of mass production, they are “inherently political,” because their core functionality demands certain social practices and discourages others.", "zh": "就像大生产系统一样，它们具有“固有政治性 ” （ inherently political ） ， 因为它们的核心功能要求某些社会行为、阻碍其他社会行为。", "index": 8006}
{"en": "In particular, machine-learning algorithms run directly counter to individuals’ desire for personal privacy.", "zh": "特别是，机器学习苏散发与个体的隐私渴望直接对立。", "index": 8007}
{"en": "A system based on the public availability of information about individual community members might seem amenable to communitarians such as the sociologist Amitai Etzioni, for whom limitations on privacy are a means to enforce social norms.", "zh": "一个基于关于个别社会成员信息的公开易得性的系统似乎契合社会学家阿米泰·艾奇奥尼（Amitai Etzioni）等社会主义派（communitarians ） ， 他们认为对隐私的限制是执行社会规范的手段。", "index": 8008}
{"en": "But, unlike communitarians, algorithms are indifferent to social norms.", "zh": "但和社会主义派不同，算法不关心社会规范。", "index": 8009}
{"en": "Their only concern is to make better predictions, by transforming more and more areas of human life into data sets that can be mined.", "zh": "它们至关注更好地做出预测，而这可以通过将越来越多的人类生活领域转化为可挖掘的数据集来实现。", "index": 8010}
{"en": "Moreover, while the force of a technological imperative turns individualist Westerners into accidental communitarians, it also makes them more beholden to a culture of meritocracy based on algorithmic evaluations.", "zh": "此外，尽管技术的强制力将个人主义西方人转化为偶然的社会主义派，但它也让他们接受基于算法评估的英才文化。", "index": 8011}
{"en": "Whether it is at work, in school, or even on dating apps, we have already become accustomed to having our eligibility assessed by impersonal tools, which then assign us positions in a hierarchy.", "zh": "不管是在职场还是在校园，甚至是在约会应用中，我们都已经习惯于用非人工具评估我们的资格，然后分配给我们某个层级的位置。", "index": 8012}
{"en": "To be sure, algorithmic assessment is not new.", "zh": "平心而论，算法评估并非新鲜事。", "index": 8013}
{"en": "A generation ago, scholars such as Oscar H. Gandy warned that we were turning into a scored-and-ranked society, and demanded more accountability and redress for technology-driven mistakes.", "zh": "一代人以前，奥斯卡·甘迪（Oscar H. Gandy）等学者就警告说，我们正在转变为一个记录和排名的社会，并要求更多地问责和矫正技术导致的错误。", "index": 8014}
{"en": "But, unlike modern machine-learning algorithms, older assessment tools were reasonably well understood.", "zh": "但和现代机器学习算法不同，旧的评估工具可以理解得相当透彻。", "index": 8015}
{"en": "They made decisions on the basis of relevant normative and empirical factors.", "zh": "它们基于相关的规范性和实证性因子做出决定。", "index": 8016}
{"en": "For example, it was no secret that accumulating a lot of credit card debit could hurt one’s creditworthiness.", "zh": "比如，背负许多信用卡债有损于一个人的信誉，这早已不是什么秘密。", "index": 8017}
{"en": "By contrast, new machine-learning technologies plumb the depths of large data sets to find correlations that are predictive but poorly understood.", "zh": "相反，新机器学习技术深挖大型数据集寻找预测性但没有被很好地认识的相关性。", "index": 8018}
{"en": "In the workplace, algorithms can track employees’ conversations, where they eat lunch, and how much time they spend on the computer, telephone, or in meetings.", "zh": "在职场中，算法能够跟踪员工的对话、他们在哪里吃午饭、在电脑、电话或会议上上花了多少时间等。", "index": 8019}
{"en": "And with that data, the algorithm develops sophisticated models of productivity that far surpass our commonsense intuitions.", "zh": "有了这些数据，算法就能开发远远超过我们的常识直觉的复杂的生产率模型。", "index": 8020}
{"en": "In an algorithmic meritocracy, whatever the models demand becomes the new standard of excellence.", "zh": "在一个算法精英体系中，模型要求什么，什么就成为出色的标准。", "index": 8021}
{"en": "Still, technology is not destiny.", "zh": "尽管如此，技术并非宿命。", "index": 8022}
{"en": "We shape it before it shapes us.", "zh": "我们在技术决定我们之前决定技术。", "index": 8023}
{"en": "Business leaders and policymakers can develop and deploy the technologies they want, according to their institutional needs.", "zh": "商业领袖和决策者可以根据他们的机构需要开发和部署技术。", "index": 8024}
{"en": "It is within our power to cast privacy nets around sensitive areas of human life, to protect people from the harmful uses of data, and to require that algorithms balance predictive accuracy against other values such as fairness, accountability, and transparency.", "zh": "我们有能力在人类生活的敏感区域周围布置一张隐私网，保护人们免受伤害性数据用途的影响，要求算法平衡预测准确性和公平、问责和透明度等价值观。", "index": 8025}
{"en": "But if we follow the natural flow of algorithmic logic, a more meritocratic and communitarian culture will be inevitable.", "zh": "但在我们遵循自然算法逻辑流之前，更精英化和社会主义派的文化是不可避免的。", "index": 8026}
{"en": "And this steady transformation will have far-reaching implications for our democratic institutions and political structures.", "zh": "而这一逐步的变化将深远影响到我们的民主制度和政治结构。", "index": 8027}
{"en": "As the China scholars Daniel A. Bell and Zhang Weiwei have noted, the major political alternative to Western liberal-democratic traditions are the communitarian institutions that continue to evolve in China.", "zh": "中国学者贝淡宁（Daniel A. Bell）和张维维指出，西方自由民主传统过的主要政治替代品便是在中国不断演化的社会主义派制度。", "index": 8028}
{"en": "In China, collective decisions are not legitimated by citizens’ explicit consent, and people generally have fewer enforceable rights against the government, particularly when it comes to surveillance.", "zh": "在中国，集体决定不需要公民明确同意才合法化，一般而言，人们对政府的可执行权利（enforceable right）较少，特别是在监督方面。", "index": 8029}
{"en": "An ordinary Chinese citizen’s role in political life is largely limited to participation in local elections.", "zh": "普通中国老百姓在政治生活中的角色大多只局限于参加地方选举。", "index": 8030}
{"en": "The country’s leaders, meanwhile, are selected through a meritocratic process, and consider themselves custodians of the people’s welfare.", "zh": "与此同时，国家领导人通过英才过程遴选，并自视为人民福祉的监护人。", "index": 8031}
{"en": "Liberal democracies are not likely to shift entirely to such a political system.", "zh": "自由民主不可能完全变为这种政治制度。", "index": 8032}
{"en": "But if current trends in business and consumer culture continue, we might soon have more in common with Chinese meritocratic and communitarian traditions than with our own history of individualism and liberal democracy.", "zh": "但如果当前的商业和消费者文化持续下去，我们很快就会有更多与中国的英才和社会主义派传统，而不是我们自身的个人主义和自由民主传统相近的东西。", "index": 8033}
{"en": "If we want to change course, we will have to put our own political imperatives before those of our technologies.", "zh": "如果我们想要改变趋势，就必须将我们自身的政治责任置于技术之前。", "index": 8034}
{"en": "A Sunni-Shia Bridge Too Far", "zh": "弥合逊尼-什叶分歧任重道远", "index": 8035}
{"en": "BAGHDAD – Iraq’s recent parliamentary election, the first since United States troops left the country in 2011, was held amid a rising tide of violence that is fast approaching the levels experienced during the 2005-2007 insurgency.", "zh": "巴格达—最近，伊拉克举行了自2011年美军撤离后的第一次议会选举。 这次选举是在暴力活动不断升级、直指2005—2007年动乱程度的情况下举行的。", "index": 8036}
{"en": "Can the new government restore order and address the many immense challenges that Iraq faces?", "zh": "新政府能够重建秩序、解决伊拉克所面临的诸多紧迫挑战吗？", "index": 8037}
{"en": "The challenges are indeed daunting.", "zh": "挑战着实棘手。", "index": 8038}
{"en": "The authorities must resolve fundamental constitutional questions (such as whether Iraq should be a federal state or a confederation), rebuild civil society, reform state institutions, reconstruct the economy, and end the waste and corruption in the oil sector.", "zh": "当局必须解决基本宪政问题（如伊拉克应该成为联邦还是邦联 ） 、 重建公民社会、改革国家机构、复兴经济并根除石油部门的浪费和腐败。", "index": 8039}
{"en": "But perhaps the most intractable challenge of all is bridging the sectarian rift between the country’s Shia and Sunni citizens.", "zh": "但或许最艰巨的挑战在于弥合伊拉克什叶派和逊尼派公民之间的宗派分歧。", "index": 8040}
{"en": "These fissures are mirrored in other Arab countries (such as Syria, Lebanon, the Gulf countries, and Yemen) and, increasingly, in the wider Muslim world (including Pakistan, Malaysia, and Indonesia).", "zh": "这一分歧在其他阿拉伯国家也存在（如叙利亚、黎巴嫩、海湾国家和也门 ） ， 并大有席卷穆斯林世界（包括巴基斯坦、马来西亚和印度尼西亚）之势。", "index": 8041}
{"en": "Is this a historical aberration, or are Islam’s two largest sects condemned to perpetual mutual hostility?", "zh": "这只是一个历史插曲，还是伊斯兰教最大的两个宗派已经陷入了持久的对立？", "index": 8042}
{"en": "Certainly, there have been periods when the two communities have coexisted peacefully.", "zh": "毫无疑问，历史上曾有过两派和平共处的时期。", "index": 8043}
{"en": "But what matters today is that Shia and Sunni relate to their past differently, and that this historical memory can be distorted – and even invented – to create mistrust and hate.", "zh": "但如今最重要的是什叶派和逊尼派都强调过去的不同，而历史记忆是可以扭曲 — — 甚至捏造 — — 从而炮制不信任和厌恶的。", "index": 8044}
{"en": "The overthrow of the first Muslim dynasty, the staunchly anti-Shia Umayyads, in the year 750, by the Abbasids, who traced their lineage to the Prophet Muhammad’s uncle, raised hopes, albeit short-lived, of a Sunni-Shia rapprochement.", "zh": "顽固反什叶派的第一个穆斯林王朝 — — 倭马亚王朝（白衣大食）在公元750年被自称是先知穆罕默德叔父的后裔阿巴斯王朝（黑衣大食）推翻。", "index": 8045}
{"en": "The 500 years of Abbasid reign that followed provide many valuable illustrations of how these two communities subsequently related to each other.", "zh": "这带来了短暂的逊尼派-什叶派和解希望。 阿巴斯王朝统治的500年涌现出大量日后两派互相援引的极有价值的事件。", "index": 8046}
{"en": "In particular, there is much to be learned from the different legacies of the caliph al-Nasir (1180-1225) and the last Abbasid caliph, al-Musta’sim (1242-1258).", "zh": "特别是，可以从内綏尔哈里发（al-Nasir，1180—1225）和阿巴斯王朝末代哈里发穆��台绥木（al-Musta’sim，1242—1258）的不同遗产中得到很多教训。", "index": 8047}
{"en": "The rule of al-Nasir – who viewed the Shia as an intrinsic part of the Islamic community and sought to treat all of his subjects equally – was characterized by a marked decrease in sectarian tensions.", "zh": "内綏尔认为什叶派是伊斯兰教的固有组成部分，并试图平等对待他的所有子民，在他统治期间，宗派紧张大为缓和。", "index": 8048}
{"en": "By contrast, Sunni-Shia clashes – including killings, arson, and other violence – were common during al-Musta’sim’s rule.", "zh": "相反，穆斯台绥木统治期间，逊尼派-什叶派冲突 — — 包括杀戮、焚烧和其他暴力 — — 十分普遍。", "index": 8049}
{"en": "These examples demonstrate the importance of good leadership when communities that uphold different claims to the truth are subject to the same political authority – especially when these communities seek assurance that their survival is not threatened.", "zh": "这些例子表明，当存在持有对真相的不同主张的宗派共存于同一个政治当局之下 — — 特别是这些宗派都试图确保自身生存不受威胁时，好的领导是至关重要的。", "index": 8050}
{"en": "Iraq’s current political leaders need to learn from this past and ensure that none of the country’s communities face marginalization or discrimination – lessons that apply throughout the Muslim world.", "zh": "伊拉克的现任政治领导人需要从这些历史中吸取教训，并保证伊拉克的所有派别都不会被边缘化或受到歧视，这些教训是从穆斯林世界的全部历史中提炼出来的。", "index": 8051}
{"en": "In Pakistan, for example, there are sectarian killings almost daily; in Malaysia, the tiny Shia population is viewed as an existential threat; and incendiary language dominates discourse about rival sects in Wahhabi circles in Saudi Arabia and far beyond.", "zh": "比如，在巴基斯坦，几乎每天都有宗派杀戮；在马来西亚，为数很少的什叶派被视为生存威胁；而在沙特阿拉伯和其他许多国家，瓦哈比派在讨论敌对派别时动辄扬言烧杀抢掠。", "index": 8052}
{"en": "Politics and power struggles explain much of the violence and mistrust.", "zh": "政治和权力斗争能够解释这一暴力和不信任的大部分原因。", "index": 8053}
{"en": "Fear of Iranian-led hegemony, for example, has focused Gulf leaders’ minds on their Shia population’s loyalty.", "zh": "比如，海湾国家领导人认定，担心以伊朗为首的霸权主义是其什叶派人口忠心的基础。", "index": 8054}
{"en": "Malaysia’s political parties use anti-Shia animus to spread fear, helping to attract votes and consolidate power.", "zh": "马来西亚政党以反什叶派为目标散布恐惧，以此吸引选票、巩固权力。", "index": 8055}
{"en": "Syria and its regional allies are determined to protect a new regional balance of power that shifted in their favor following the US-led invasion of Iraq.", "zh": "在美国领导的入侵伊拉克战争打响后，叙利亚及其地区盟友决心捍卫朝对其有利的方向发展的新的地区实力平衡。", "index": 8056}
{"en": "But political calculation cannot explain everything.", "zh": "但政治算计不能解释一切现象。", "index": 8057}
{"en": "The fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003 provides a good example of how a political event, viewed through a sectarian lens, can be interpreted differently.", "zh": "2003年萨达姆·侯赛因的倒台为我们提供了一个很好的例子，说明了同一件政治事件是如何被不同的宗派做出不同解读的。", "index": 8058}
{"en": "The US destruction of the Iraqi state brought about a precarious new order that sought to redress years of Sunni dominance by favoring the Shia.", "zh": "美国对伊拉克国家的摧毁带来了不稳定的新秩序，该秩序试图通过向什叶派倾斜纠正多年来的逊尼派主导。", "index": 8059}
{"en": "However, the shock of sudden Sunni disempowerment generated a discourse, widely shared in the Muslim world, in which the Shia are guilty of collusion in the US occupation of the country – a view reinforced by events in Syria.", "zh": "但是，逊尼派突然失去权力所带来的冲击在穆斯林世界引起了轩然大波，结论是什叶派与美国勾结占领了伊拉克 — — 这一观点因为叙利亚事件而进一步强化了。", "index": 8060}
{"en": "According to this thesis, the Shia simply reverted to their “historic” role as wreckers and fifth columnists.", "zh": "根据这一说法，什叶派只是恢复了其肇事者和第五纵队的“历史”角色。", "index": 8061}
{"en": "Was it not the case, it is claimed, that the Shia also colluded with the Mongols in the fall of Baghdad in 1258, culminating in the death of the last Abbasid caliph and the destruction of the Abbasid Empire, the “universal state” of Muslims?", "zh": "在历史上，1258年什叶派还和蒙古人勾结导致巴格达陷落，阿巴斯王朝末代哈里发因此丧命，穆斯林的“大一统 ” （ universal state ） — —阿巴斯王朝因此灭亡。", "index": 8062}
{"en": "Several medieval Muslim historians pointed to the role of the Shia vizier Ibn al-‘Alqami, arguing that he plotted with the Mongols to bring down the caliphate.", "zh": "一些中世纪穆斯林历史学家指出，什叶派宰相伊本·阿尔恰米（Ibn al - ‘ Alqami）与蒙古人合作灭掉了阿巴斯王朝。", "index": 8063}
{"en": "Once the preserve of a handful of scholars, the Ibn al-‘Alqami story now plays a prominent part in today’s Sunni- Shia disputes.", "zh": "阿尔恰米的故事曾经是一些学者的禁脔，而如今，它成了逊尼派-什叶派纠纷的核心部分。", "index": 8064}
{"en": "Indeed, “‘Alaqima,” the plural form of the Arabic name “‘Alqami,” is now applied to the Shia as short-hand for treachery.", "zh": "事实上 ， “ 阿尔恰米分子”即来源于阿拉伯名字“阿尔恰米 ” ， 现在被用来代称什叶派，意指他们是变节者。", "index": 8065}
{"en": "Social media forums are replete with polemics about the Shia role in assisting both Mongol and US invaders.", "zh": "社交媒体论坛充斥着关于什叶派勾结蒙古和美国侵略者的辩论。", "index": 8066}
{"en": "Many even claim that Iraq’s Shia are al-‘Alqami’s descendants, and that Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s Prime Minister, is his modern incarnation.", "zh": "许多人甚至将伊拉克什叶派称为阿尔恰米的后代，把伊拉克总理马利基说成是当代阿尔恰米。", "index": 8067}
{"en": "These diatribes reflect Iraqi’s polarized historical memory.", "zh": "这些诽谤之词反映了伊拉克人历史记忆的两极分化。", "index": 8068}
{"en": "Despite ample historical evidence of peaceful inter-communal relations, many people – whether through simple ignorance of history or the need to assert the supremacy of one version of the truth – prefer to consecrate narratives of treachery and betrayal that perpetuate hatred.", "zh": "尽管充分的历史证据表明两派之间曾经和平共处，但许多人 — — 不管是出于对历史的无知，还是出于维护某种版本的真相的至高无上性的需要 — — 更愿意相信延续仇恨的关于变节和背叛的圣谕。", "index": 8069}
{"en": "More important, the current situation reflects a lack of wisdom, responsibility, and basic decency on the part of political and religious leaders, who prefer to fuel, rather than dampen, inter-communal strife.", "zh": "更重要的是，当前的局面反映了政治和宗教领袖缺乏智慧、责任和基本尊重，他们更喜欢助推而不是消弭宗派冲突。", "index": 8070}
{"en": "Sadly, intolerance has now become a generalized condition.", "zh": "令人悲伤的是，偏隘已成为一般现象。", "index": 8071}
{"en": "There is too little knowledge about other communities’ beliefs and history, and what little exists has been overwhelmed by sectarian anger and its poisonous rhetoric.", "zh": "对其他派别的信仰和历史了解太少，仅存的一些理解也被宗派愤怒和恶意中伤所压倒。", "index": 8072}
{"en": "As long as Sunnis and Shia refuse to think about their past together, it is difficult to foresee a tranquil future together.", "zh": "只要逊尼派和什叶派拒绝共同思索他们的过去，就很难预见和平共处的未来。", "index": 8073}
{"en": "And if political and religious leaders are unable or unwilling to seek accommodation, it will be up to like-minded individuals, groups, and civil-society institutions to rebuild mutual respect and find ways to cooperate.", "zh": "而如果政治和宗教领袖无力或不愿寻求妥协，就必须依靠观念相近的个人、组织和公民社会机构来重建互相尊重、寻找合作之路。", "index": 8074}
{"en": "Doing so will require knowledge, patience, and, above all, open minds and hearts.", "zh": "而这需要知识、耐心，以及最重要的，开放的思维和心态。", "index": 8075}
{"en": "All in the Family", "zh": "全球性家族企业的多事之秋", "index": 8076}
{"en": "MUNICH – Big economic crises often cause iconic companies to falter.", "zh": "慕尼黑 — — 经济大危机常令一些标志性公司走上下坡路。", "index": 8077}
{"en": "Rupert Murdoch’s media empire is a model of the modern global enterprise.", "zh": "默多克的传媒帝国是现代全球企业的一个样板。", "index": 8078}
{"en": "A particularly dynamic and innovative business model came from outside and took over central aspects of British and then American public life.", "zh": "秉持着一种特别富有活力和开创性的商业模式，这个外来势力先后闯入英国和美国的公共生活，占领了关键阵地。", "index": 8079}
{"en": "That model is now threatened by the fallout from the scandal that started with phone hacking in Murdoch’s British press operations.", "zh": "如今，旗下英国报纸的手机窃听丑闻一石激起千层浪，令这座大厦风雨飘摇。", "index": 8080}
{"en": "The Murdoch experience is a microcosm of how modern globalization works.", "zh": "默多克帝国的历史就是现代全球化的缩影。", "index": 8081}
{"en": "Murdoch always looked like a foreign intrusion into British life. It was not just that he was Australian; he also brought new ideas.", "zh": "英国人总把默多克看作入侵者，不仅因为他是澳大利亚人，更因为他带来了新理念。", "index": 8082}
{"en": "In particular, the application of digital technology, introduced after a ferocious struggle with the powerful print unions, brought substantial cost savings and allowed a new era of journalism.", "zh": "具体而言，在克服了印刷业工会的强力阻挠之后，数字技术全面引入，大大节约了成本，并把新闻行业带入了一个新纪元。", "index": 8083}
{"en": "Even more importantly, Murdoch represented a concept of family business that is common in many parts of the world, but relatively rare in Britain and the United States.", "zh": "更重要的是，默多克所代表的家族企业模式，在英国和美国不太多见，在世界其他一些地方却相当普遍。", "index": 8084}
{"en": "Family capitalism in the continental European model uses relatively little capital to achieve maximum control.", "zh": "欧洲大陆的家族资本主义模式可用较少的资本实现最大程度的控制。", "index": 8085}
{"en": "It frequently depends on very complex corporate structures, with multiple layers of holding companies, as well as privileged shares that can guarantee the continuation of control.", "zh": "其治理结构通常很复杂，通过一级级的控股公司和优先股股份保证持续的控制。", "index": 8086}
{"en": "This sort of firm is also very common in the most dynamic emerging-market economies in Asia and Latin America.", "zh": "在亚洲和拉美一些最富活力的新兴市场经济体，此类企业也很常见。", "index": 8087}
{"en": "The Murdoch family holds only 12% of the shares of News Corporation, the top-level holding company, but it wields about two-fifths of the voting rights; other votes are held by a loyal Saudi prince.", "zh": "默多克家族仅持有顶级控股公司 — — 新闻集团12%的股份，却握有五分之二的投票权；剩下的投票权握在一位可靠的沙特亲王手中。", "index": 8088}
{"en": "For decades, academic analysts have been fighting over whether such large-scale family businesses should be considered beneficial.", "zh": "这种家族企业巨无霸为什么还能维持可观的盈利？ 几十年来，学术界为此问题争论不休。", "index": 8089}
{"en": "Their defenders point out that such companies often have a much longer-term vision than is true of managerial capitalism, which enables them to establish strong and enduring relationships with their customers and suppliers.", "zh": "捍卫者指出，相对于经理人资本主义式的企业，家族企业通常拥有更长远的眼光，使其能够同顾客和供应商建立更牢固的关系。", "index": 8090}
{"en": "At least in the case of the Murdoch empire, it now appears that they pursue long and binding relationships with politicians and the police as well.", "zh": "现在看来 — — 至少就默多克的例子而言 — — 它也谋求同政界和警界建立长期、牢靠的关系。", "index": 8091}
{"en": "Indeed, political entanglements are one of two sources of weakness in European-style family capitalism, as owners seek political advantages and preferred access as much as they strive for technical innovation.", "zh": "事实上，同政界牵扯不清是欧式家族资本主义的两大软肋之一 — — 企业主寻求政治优势和人脉的热情不亚于搞技术革新。", "index": 8092}
{"en": "Murdoch’s empire depended on its closeness to politicians.", "zh": "靠近政界是默多克帝国的一根支柱。", "index": 8093}
{"en": "In retrospect, three successive British prime ministers – Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, and David Cameron – were on overly familiar terms with a manipulative business leader.", "zh": "今天回头来看，连续三任英国首相 — — 布莱尔、布朗和卡梅伦同这位长袖善舞的商业巨子过从甚密。", "index": 8094}
{"en": "Cameron now talks about the need for “a healthier relationship between politicians and media owners.”", "zh": "卡梅伦如今口口声声说 ： “ 政治家和媒体大亨之间需要一种更健康的关系。", "index": 8095}
{"en": "And Murdoch apparently is now saying that he wishes that all these prime ministers would “leave me alone.”", "zh": "”而默多克更是公开表态，希望首相们“离我远一点。 ”", "index": 8096}
{"en": "The second notorious weakness of family businesses is the problem of succession.", "zh": "家族企业的第二大致命伤是继承问题。", "index": 8097}
{"en": "When he appeared before the British parliament in July, Rupert Murdoch looked like an old man, remote and out of control.", "zh": "本月出席英国议会听证会时，默多克表现得像是远离公司管理的垂暮家翁。", "index": 8098}
{"en": "In old-style family firms, there is a clear rule of succession that the oldest son takes over.", "zh": "老派家族企业的继承有一条明确的规矩 — — 长子继位。", "index": 8099}
{"en": "But that rule is rightly recognized as being potentially dysfunctional.", "zh": "但应该承认这条规矩存在缺陷。", "index": 8100}
{"en": "There is obviously no guarantee that the oldest son is the best businessman, and the result could be bitter and ferocious sibling rivalry.", "zh": "显然不能保证长子一定是最好的生意人，万一碰上个不肖之子，要么败家，要么内讧。", "index": 8101}
{"en": "Such succession disputes become even more acute when there are multiple marriages and multiple sets of competing children.", "zh": "如果父辈结过多次婚，有几方子女参与争产，则继承纠纷会变得更险恶。", "index": 8102}
{"en": "Until the eruption of the current scandal, the youngest of Murdoch’s three children from his second marriage, James, was generally believed to stand the greatest chance of succeeding his father.", "zh": "在这次丑闻爆发之前，默多克同第二任妻子所育三个子女中最小的儿子 — — 詹姆斯·默多克一般被视为最有可能继承家业的人物。", "index": 8103}
{"en": "The complexities of modern marriage patterns make family life much more fraught, especially when phenomenal power and huge sums of money are involved.", "zh": "现代婚姻模式的复杂性令家族生活矛盾重重，同权、钱有关时尤其如此。", "index": 8104}
{"en": "All three of Murdoch’s marriages have produced children, though those from his current relationship are too young to be considered potential corporate successors.", "zh": "默多克的三次婚姻都有子女，只是他同现任妻子所育子女年龄太小，当不了企业继承人。", "index": 8105}
{"en": "In addition, succession planning can become complicated by the emergence of “substitute children” from the company’s management.", "zh": "此外，由公司管理层涌现的“代子女”令继承规划进一步复杂化。", "index": 8106}
{"en": "Rebekah Brooks, the editor of The News of the World at the beginning of the phone-hacking scandal, and subsequently the chief executive of News International, Murdoch’s British subsidiary, played precisely such a role.", "zh": "丽贝卡·布鲁克斯 — — 手机窃听勾当开始时《世界新闻报》的总编辑，默多克帝国英国分支新闻国际集团的首席执行官 — — 恰恰是这样一个角色。", "index": 8107}
{"en": "The disintegration of the business empire is then accompanied and amplified by bitter disputes between the children and the substitute children.", "zh": "子女和代子女的混战，伴随着商业帝国的分崩离析，并且加剧了分崩离析的过程。", "index": 8108}
{"en": "Indeed, the crisis of the Murdoch family’s business empire is neither unique nor unprecedented.", "zh": "说实话，默多克家族商业帝国的危机既非独一无二，也非前所未见。", "index": 8109}
{"en": "In the first half of the 1990’s, many observers of the alleged Asian economic miracle emphasized trust and families’ capacity to cooperate with political authorities in order to realize long-term growth plans.", "zh": "20世纪90年代上半叶，所谓亚洲经济奇迹期间，许多观察家对家族企业大加赞赏，说它们内部的牢固信任、同政治权威的合作有利于实现长期增长。", "index": 8110}
{"en": "After the 1997-1998 Asia crisis, and as authoritarian regimes in South Korea and Indonesia disintegrated, these relationships were suddenly interpreted as corrupt, and the counter-view – that “crony capitalism” had become entrenched in these countries – soon prevailed.", "zh": "到了1997~1998年亚洲金融危机以及韩国和印尼威权政府倒台之后，人们突然又说这种官商关系是腐败，舆论一改之前的赞赏态度，相反的观点很快占据了上风 — — 是“裙带资本主义”拖累了那些国家。", "index": 8111}
{"en": "The Arab Spring has been in large part a movement against corrupt family capitalism, embodied not only in ruling families like the Ben Alis, the Mubaraks, and the Assads, but also in the large family business empires that depended on and supported them.", "zh": "在很大程度上，阿拉伯之春也是一场反对腐败的家族资本主义的运动，对象不仅是本·阿里家族、穆巴拉克家族和阿萨德家族，还有那些同它们互相依存、互相支持的家族商业帝国。", "index": 8112}
{"en": "As a result of globalization, large family firms could increase their size and their geographic range.", "zh": "全球化令大型家族企业得以扩大规模、扩展地理范���。", "index": 8113}
{"en": "But globalization also increases the chances of backlashes that focus on the vulnerabilities, weaknesses, and mistakes of big family firms.", "zh": "但全球化也凸显了大型家族企业的弱点和失误，使它们更易受到冲击。", "index": 8114}
{"en": "They are vulnerable to an Arab Spring (and a British summer) – and maybe to a US autumn that will focus not just on the Murdochs’ business, but also on its interplay with politics.", "zh": "阿拉伯之春和不列颠之夏已经让它们疲于应付，接下来很可能还会来一个美利坚之秋 — — 不仅针对默多克的生意，也针对它同政治的私通。", "index": 8115}
{"en": "All Man’s Land", "zh": "清一色男人的土地", "index": 8116}
{"en": "NEW DELHI – Ernest Hemingway’s collection of stories, Men without Women, examines tense gender relationships.", "zh": "新德里 — — 欧内斯特·海明威的系列小说《没有女人的男人》刻画了两性间的紧张关系。", "index": 8117}
{"en": "In a particularly poignant story, a young man convinces his partner to have an abortion, viewing their unborn child as a hindrance to the status quo. Frustrated, the woman gives in.", "zh": "在一则特别凄美的小说中，一名年轻男子将尚未出世的婴儿视作障碍因而说服伴侣打胎，心灰意冷的女人被迫表示同意。", "index": 8118}
{"en": "That story, published more than 80 years ago, remains relevant today in India, where female fetuses face severe risks.", "zh": "80年前的这则小说反应的现象在当今印度依然具有实际意义，这里的女性胎儿所面临的风险非常严峻。", "index": 8119}
{"en": "According to the 2011 census, the sex ratio of the country’s children has dipped from 927 females per 1000 males to 914, a 60-year low.", "zh": "2011年的人口普查显示，印度的男女童比例已经从每千名男性927名女性下降到每千名男性914名女性，创下六十年来的新低。", "index": 8120}
{"en": "Ratios in the northern states are particularly alarming: only Himachal Pradesh now has a ratio of girls to boys above 900.", "zh": "印度北部各邦的男女童比例尤其令人震惊：只有喜马偕尔邦目前的比例仍处于900以上。", "index": 8121}
{"en": "Despite being illegal, ultrasound sex-determination tests are being used across India to identify for abortion extraordinary numbers of healthy female fetuses.", "zh": "尽管被视为非法，但印度各地普遍利用超声波鉴定婴儿性别，导致大量健康的女性胎儿招致人为堕胎。", "index": 8122}
{"en": "But there are serious concerns about legal operations, too.", "zh": "而且合法手术也引发了严重的担忧。", "index": 8123}
{"en": "Genitoplasty – a sex-change operation on newborn girls – is a mushrooming, and deeply disturbing, business in India.", "zh": "一种改变新生女婴性别的生殖器成形术正在印度境内蓬勃发展，这一现象引起了很多人的担忧。", "index": 8124}
{"en": "There’s only one word for it: gendercide.", "zh": "只有性别屠杀这个词能够准确形容这种现象。", "index": 8125}
{"en": "Left unchecked, it will leave India’s next generation of men with a severe shortage of women.", "zh": "如果不加以遏止，将导致下一代印度男人严重匮乏女性伴侣。", "index": 8126}
{"en": "Indian couples have a strong cultural preference, bordering on obsession, for sons over daughters – despite the strides in education and employment that women have made over the last few decades.", "zh": "尽管过去几十年来女性在教育和就业领域已经取得了重大进步，但印度夫妻却有着建立在执迷基础上的强烈的重男轻女文化偏好。", "index": 8127}
{"en": "Education and wealth have nothing to do with it – in fact, some of the worst-affected areas are in India’s wealthiest cities.", "zh": "这种偏好与教育和财富无关 — — 事实上，受影响最严重的恰恰是印度某些最富裕的城市。", "index": 8128}
{"en": "However discomfiting a possibility, the real culprit might be Indian culture and tradition itself.", "zh": "无论这种可能性多么令人难以接受，但真正的罪魁祸首或许恰恰是印度文化和传统本身。", "index": 8129}
{"en": "The expenses and pressure of the dowry system, and the fact that, in most joint families, only sons inherit property and wealth, contribute to this favoritism.", "zh": "嫁妆制度所造成的开销和压力，以及在多数联合家庭中只有儿子能继承产业和财富的现状是这种偏爱的始作俑者。", "index": 8130}
{"en": "Perhaps just as important is that sons typically live with their parents even after they are married, and assume responsibility for parents in their old age.", "zh": "还有一点也许同样重要，那就是儿子即使婚后一般也与父母同住，并在父母年老时承担起赡养义务。", "index": 8131}
{"en": "Daughters, who live with their in-laws after they marry, are viewed as amanat – someone else’s property.", "zh": "而女儿婚后只能与公婆同住，因此被视为别人的财富（amanat ） 。", "index": 8132}
{"en": "In short, sons represent income and daughters an expense.", "zh": "简言之，儿子代表收入而女儿代表支出。", "index": 8133}
{"en": "In the old days, when families typically had 5-10 children, this didn’t matter so much.", "zh": "从前，每个家庭都有5－10个孩子，因此这个问题显得并不突出。", "index": 8134}
{"en": "The number of sons and daughters often evened out.", "zh": "因为儿女数量一般是平衡的。", "index": 8135}
{"en": "But, for today’s smaller families, whether the children are two boys or two girls influences everything from financial planning to preparations for old age.", "zh": "但相对于今天的小家庭而言，究竟是两个儿子还是两个女儿则关乎从财务计划到养老准备的方方面面。", "index": 8136}
{"en": "Many have argued that Indian women should stand up to their families and refuse to abort their daughters.", "zh": "很多人提出印度妇女应该顶住家庭压力，拒绝打掉女婴。", "index": 8137}
{"en": "But Indian women want male children just as much.", "zh": "可印度妇女对男婴的渴望却丝毫不亚于其他人。", "index": 8138}
{"en": "Unlike Hemingway’s character, they are often more than willing to abort a girl and try for a boy.", "zh": "与海明威小说中的主人公不同，她们往往会迫不及待地打掉女孩，以争取怀上男孩。", "index": 8139}
{"en": "The novelist Salman Rushdie once put the question to supporters of abortion rights: “What should be done when a woman uses her power over her own body to discriminate against female fetuses?”", "zh": "小说家萨尔曼·拉什迪曾经向堕胎权的支持者提出这样一个问题 ： “ 如果女性利用对自己身体的权利来歧视女性胎儿，我们该怎么做？ ”", "index": 8140}
{"en": "This raises other questions concerning the consequences of a large shortage of girls.", "zh": "至此又牵扯到女性短缺所带来的其他问题。", "index": 8141}
{"en": "Will women be valued and treasured?", "zh": "女性是否会受到尊重和保护？", "index": 8142}
{"en": "Or will the oversupply of men result in more bride trafficking, sexual violence, and female suicides?", "zh": "抑或因男性数量过多而导致更多的新娘贩卖、女性自杀和性暴力？", "index": 8143}
{"en": "Niall Ferguson, the British historian, cites scholars who attribute Japan’s imperial expansion after 1914 to a male youth bulge, and who link the rise of Islamist extremism to an Islamic youth bulge.", "zh": "英国历史学家尼尔·弗格森援引某些学者的看法，将日本帝国主义扩张和伊斯兰极端主义盛行归结于1914年后日本男青年数量激增和伊斯兰青年男性人口膨胀。", "index": 8144}
{"en": "“Maybe the coming generation of Asian men without women will find harmless outlets for their inevitable frustrations, like team sports or video games.", "zh": "弗格森写道 ， “ 或许新一代没有女人的亚洲男人能给自己无法避免的痛苦找到某种无害的宣泄方式，比方说集体运动或者视频游戏。", "index": 8145}
{"en": "But I doubt it,” he writes.", "zh": "但我对此深表怀疑。", "index": 8146}
{"en": "He warns us not to be surprised if, in the coming generation, “shrill nationalism is replaced by macho militarism or even imperialism.”", "zh": "”他警告我们如果下一代人“用大男子气的军国主义甚至是帝国主义取代尖锐的爱国主义 ” ， 我们不要对此感到惊奇。", "index": 8147}
{"en": "Unfortunately, there is no instant solution.", "zh": "遗憾的是，这个问题没有立竿见影的解决方案。", "index": 8148}
{"en": "Saving our girls will require radically altering some of Indian society’s family arrangements, traditions, and attitudes.", "zh": "拯救女孩的命运需要从根本上改变印度某些社会家庭安排、传统和态度。", "index": 8149}
{"en": "And there is no easy way to accomplish this.", "zh": "实现这样的目标并不轻松。", "index": 8150}
{"en": "Legislation alone won’t help, for tradition is a law unto itself.", "zh": "单靠立法并不能收到效果，因为传统本身就是一种法律。", "index": 8151}
{"en": "Hindu religious law, for example, allows a woman to claim an equal share in her parents’ wealth, but few exercise this right.", "zh": "举例而言，印度宗教法允许女性对父母的财产主张同等权利，但却没有多少人真正这样做。", "index": 8152}
{"en": "Culturally, she feels that she does not have an equal claim on her father’s property.", "zh": "从文化的角度，她感到自己对父亲的财产并不具备同等的权利。", "index": 8153}
{"en": "Nonetheless, India does need new laws – direct and enforceable – that clamp down on the cultural practices that underpin destructive traditions.", "zh": "无论如何，印度的确需要直接可行的新法律取缔支撑破坏性传统的文化惯例。", "index": 8154}
{"en": "For example, India could enforce a ceiling on wedding expenditure – typically a father’s biggest expense associated with his daughter.", "zh": "比方说，印度可以规定婚礼花销的上限 — — 婚礼花销往往是父亲在女儿身上最大的一笔开支。", "index": 8155}
{"en": "Constrained from spending on the wedding, he would compensate her differently – perhaps with a larger inheritance.", "zh": "如果不用在婚礼上耗费大量财物，也许他会给她某种形式的补偿，也许会允许她继承更多财物。", "index": 8156}
{"en": "Gradually, this would become the norm, and tradition would adjust accordingly.", "zh": "而这渐渐会成为新的标准，传统因此会进行相应的调整。", "index": 8157}
{"en": "(Interestingly, the state of Kerala, whose people adhere to matrilineal inheritance, has among the most equal sex ratios and literacy rates in India.)", "zh": "（有趣的是，在民众继续实行母系继承制度的喀拉拉邦，两性人口及识字人口比例都是印度最均衡的。 ）", "index": 8158}
{"en": "A more radical measure, which some have advocated, would be direction intervene, with the state providing benefits for families with more girls.", "zh": "某些人鼓吹实行更激进的举措，即以国家之名为女性较多的家庭提供补助。", "index": 8159}
{"en": "Perhaps the authorities could also penalize families with boys, at least temporarily.", "zh": "或许当局也可以惩罚以男孩为主的家庭，至少在一段时间内暂时如此。", "index": 8160}
{"en": "India imagines herself as a woman – Bharat Mata, or Mother India.", "zh": "印度传统上将自己想象成一名女性 — — 巴特拉马塔，也就是印度妈妈。", "index": 8161}
{"en": "The irony is that, unless far-reaching changes are made soon, Mother India could eventually be the only woman left in the country.", "zh": "颇具讽刺意味的是，除非展开影响深远的改革，否则印度妈妈可能最终成为这个国家剩下的唯一一名女性。", "index": 8162}
{"en": "All Stimulus Roads Lead to China", "zh": "美国的赤字，中国的心病", "index": 8163}
{"en": "BEIJING – Now that the “green shoots” of recovery have withered, the debate over fiscal stimulus is back with a vengeance.", "zh": "北京 — — 现如今，复苏的“绿芽”已经枯萎，该不该再搞财政刺激的辩论变本加厉。", "index": 8164}
{"en": "In the United States, those who argue for another stimulus package observe that it was always wishful thinking to believe that a $787 billion package could offset a $3 trillion fall in private spending.", "zh": "在美国，主张继续出台一揽子刺激方案的人认为，以刺激计划的7870亿美元来抵消私人部门减支3万亿美元的影响实在是一厢情愿。", "index": 8165}
{"en": "But unemployment has risen even faster and further than expected.", "zh": "失业率激增，超出预期。", "index": 8166}
{"en": "Combine this with the continued fall in housing prices, and it is understandable that consumer spending remains depressed.", "zh": "再算上持续走低的房价，不难理解消费为什么仍然低迷。", "index": 8167}
{"en": "The banks, having been recapitalized only to the extent necessary to keep them afloat, still have weak balance sheets.", "zh": "虽然银行经过了资产重组，但那只够它们继续营业，其资产负债表依然脆弱。", "index": 8168}
{"en": "Their consequent reluctance to lend constrains investment.", "zh": "惜贷之风继续制约着投资。", "index": 8169}
{"en": "Meanwhile, state governments, seeing revenues fall as a result of lower taxable incomes last year, are cutting back like mad.", "zh": "与此同时，由于去年的居民应纳税收入减少，岁入下滑，一些州政府正发疯般地削减开支。", "index": 8170}
{"en": "If there was a case for additional stimulus back in February, that case is even stronger now.", "zh": "如果说今年2月的时候有出台新刺激计划的需要，那眼下这种需要就更迫切了。", "index": 8171}
{"en": "But the case against additional stimulus is also strong.", "zh": "然而，反对出台新刺激计划的理由也很有力。", "index": 8172}
{"en": "The US federal deficit is an alarming 12% of GDP, and public debt as a share of national income is already projected to double, to 80% of GDP.", "zh": "美国联邦赤字已达到GDP的12 % ， 值得警惕；公债的GDP占比预计将翻倍，达到80 % 。", "index": 8173}
{"en": "The idea that the US can grow out of its debt burden, as did Finland and Sweden following their financial crises in the 1990’s, seems unrealistic.", "zh": "认为美国能靠经济增长还清债务，就像上世纪90年代芬兰和瑞典在遭受金融危机之后所做的那样，这种看法似乎不太现实。", "index": 8174}
{"en": "Given all this, more deficit spending will only stoke fears of higher future taxes and inflation.", "zh": "有鉴于此，更大规模的赤字支出只会激起对未来高税收和高通胀的恐慌。", "index": 8175}
{"en": "It will encourage the reemergence of global imbalances.", "zh": "这将促使全球收支不平衡卷土重来。", "index": 8176}
{"en": "And it will not reassure consumers or investors.", "zh": "而那种前景可不会让消费者和投资者放心。", "index": 8177}
{"en": "It is possible to argue the economics both ways, but the politics all point in one direction.", "zh": "经济学可以两头争论，政治则全都指向一个方向。", "index": 8178}
{"en": "The US Congress lacks the stomach for another stimulus package.", "zh": "美国国会对新刺激计划没胃口。", "index": 8179}
{"en": "It has already faced intense criticism for its failure to get the country’s fiscal house in order.", "zh": "已经有人激烈批评国会没有看好国家的财政大门。", "index": 8180}
{"en": "The slowness with which the first stimulus has been rolled out, and the fact that it will take even more time for its full effects to be felt, provides more fodder for the chattering classes.", "zh": "第一个刺激计划实施得很迟缓，而且其效果需要更长时间才能充分显现，这给议会里那批以讨好选民为业的政客提供了口实。", "index": 8181}
{"en": "Disappointment over the effects of the TARP has already destroyed popular – and Congressional – support for more public money to recapitalize the banks.", "zh": "问题资产剥离计划（TARP）的效果令人失望，这已使民众和议会不再支持用更多的公共资金来搞银行资产重组。", "index": 8182}
{"en": "So, even those who find the economic logic of arguments for fiscal activism compelling must acknowledge that the politics are not supportive.", "zh": "所以，即使一些人相信，根据经济学的逻辑，积极财政政策是当务之急，他们也不得不承认，这种政策得不到政治上的支持。", "index": 8183}
{"en": "A second stimulus simply is not in the cards.", "zh": "出台第二个刺激计划远不是板上钉钉的事。", "index": 8184}
{"en": "If there is going to be more aggregate demand, it can come from only one place.", "zh": "如果说，全球经济的总需求毕竟要有所扩大，那只能来自一个地方。", "index": 8185}
{"en": "That place is not Europe or Japan, where debts are even higher than in the US – and the demographic preconditions for servicing them less favorable.", "zh": "不是欧洲，也不是日本，它们的负债比美国还高，人口前景比美国更糟。", "index": 8186}
{"en": "Rather, it is emerging markets like China.", "zh": "那只能是来自新兴市场经济体 — — 比如中国。", "index": 8187}
{"en": "The problem is that China has already done a lot to stimulate domestic demand, both through government spending and by directing its banks to lend.", "zh": "问题在于，中国已经做了很多事来刺激内需了，一方面是扩大政府支出，另一方面是指导银行放贷。", "index": 8188}
{"en": "As a result, its stock market is frothy, and it is experiencing an alarming property boom.", "zh": "结果，中国的股市和房市又开始吹泡泡了。", "index": 8189}
{"en": "Through May, property prices were up 18% year on year.", "zh": "5月份，房地产价格同比上涨了18 % 。", "index": 8190}
{"en": "Understandably, Chinese officials worry about bubble trouble.", "zh": "中国官方开始担忧泡沫问题，这是可以理解的。", "index": 8191}
{"en": "The obvious way to square this circle is to spend more on imports.", "zh": "最明显的应对之道就是扩大进口支出。", "index": 8192}
{"en": "China can purchase more industrial machinery, transport equipment, and steelmaking material, which are among its leading imports from the US.", "zh": "中国可以购买更多的工业机械、运输设备、炼钢原料，这些都是中国从美国进口的大宗。", "index": 8193}
{"en": "Directing spending toward imports of capital equipment would avoid overheating China’s own markets, boost the economy’s productive capacity (and thus its ability to grow in the future), and support demand for US, European, and Japanese products just when such support is needed most.", "zh": "通过进口资本品而增加支出，不仅可以避免中国国内市场过热，提升生产力（从而加强未来的增长潜力 ） ， 还可以支撑对美国、欧洲和日本产品的需求，起到雪中送炭的效果。", "index": 8194}
{"en": "This strategy is not without risks.", "zh": "这个策略不是没有风险。", "index": 8195}
{"en": "Allowing the renminbi to appreciate as a way of encouraging imports may also discourage exports, the traditional motor of Chinese growth.", "zh": "允许人民币升值以鼓励进口同时也会抑制出口，而出口是中国经济的传统引擎。", "index": 8196}
{"en": "And lowering administrative barriers to imports might redirect more spending toward foreign goods than the authorities intend.", "zh": "降低进口的行政壁垒会把更多的支出引向外国货物的进口，也许有些政府部门并不乐见此情形。", "index": 8197}
{"en": "But these are risks worth taking if China is serious about assuming a global leadership role.", "zh": "然而，如果中国当真想接过一个全球领导者的角色，这些风险值得冒一冒。", "index": 8198}
{"en": "The question is what China will get in return.", "zh": "问题在于，中国能获得什么回报呢？", "index": 8199}
{"en": "And the answer brings us back, full circle, to where we started, namely to US fiscal policy.", "zh": "这个问题把我们带回了本文的起点，也就是美国的财政政策。", "index": 8200}
{"en": "China is worried that its more than $1 trillion investment in US Treasury securities will not hold its value.", "zh": "中国持有的美国国债超过1万亿美元，它很担心这笔资产的安全。", "index": 8201}
{"en": "It wants reassurance that the US will stand behind its debts. It therefore wants to see a credible program for balancing the US budget once the recession ends.", "zh": "它想要美国保证不赖帐，所以希望美国拿出一个在衰退结束后平衡预算的可行方案来。", "index": 8202}
{"en": "And, tough talk notwithstanding, the Obama administration has yet to offer a credible roadmap for fiscal consolidation.", "zh": "可是，不客气地讲，奥巴马政府至今未能拿出一个像样的巩固财政的路线图来。", "index": 8203}
{"en": "Doing so would reassure American taxpayers worried about current deficits. Just as importantly, it would reassure Chinese policymakers.", "zh": "如果它能拿出来的话，就既能让美国纳税人安心，又能让中国决策者放心。", "index": 8204}
{"en": "We live in a multipolar world where neither the US nor China is large enough to exercise global economic leadership on its own.", "zh": "我们生活在一个多极化的世界中，不论是美国还是中国，都没有足够的力量独自领导全球经济。", "index": 8205}
{"en": "For China, leadership means assuming additional risks.", "zh": "对中国而言，肩负共同领导的责任意味着多冒一些风险。", "index": 8206}
{"en": "But for this to be tolerable, the US needs to relieve China of existing risks.", "zh": "为了打消中国的顾虑，美国得想办法帮助中国规避一些既存的风险。", "index": 8207}
{"en": "Only by working together can the two countries lead the world economy out of its current doldrums.", "zh": "只有携手合作，两国才能领导世界经济走出当前的萧条。", "index": 8208}
{"en": "A Long March with China", "zh": "与中国之崛起长伴左右", "index": 8209}
{"en": "BEIJING – US Vice President Joe Biden’s recent four-day visit to China ended on a high note.", "zh": "发自北京 — — 美国副总统乔·拜登最近的四日访华行程最终高调收尾。", "index": 8210}
{"en": "He assured Chinese leaders that the United States is committed to honoring all its debts, despite its recent credit downgrade; he talked enthusiastically about US-China interdependence; and he showcased his granddaughter, who has studied Chinese for several years, as a future bridge between the two countries.", "zh": "他向中国领导人保证虽然最近遭到降级，但美国一定会为自身所有债务负责。 他还热情地谈到中美两国的相互依存关系，同时还带来了自己学习中文多年的孙女，希望她未来能在两国之间牵线搭桥。", "index": 8211}
{"en": "But, behind all the smiles and banquet toasts, serious issues and perception gaps continue to divide the world’s two great powers.", "zh": "但在宾主笑脸相迎，推杯换盏的背后依然存在着一系列严重问题以及理念差距，不断撕裂着两个世界大国之间的关系。", "index": 8212}
{"en": "For starters, there is always an attitude problem.", "zh": "首先呈现的往往是所谓态度问题。", "index": 8213}
{"en": "To those who view China’s rise in a negative light, the country is simply becoming ever more arrogant. It is getting tough in its territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea; it is becoming assertive in the South China Sea with its neighbors, also over disputed islands; it put its own stealth fighter on display during the US defense secretary’s visit to China; it is sending its first aircraft carrier out to sea for trials, indicating the possibility of establishing naval bases in the Indian Ocean.", "zh": "对于那些以负面眼光看待中国崛起的人来说，这个国家简直是日益骄横：首先在对日东海主权争议上转趋强硬；随后又在南海诸岛主权问题上与诸多邻国对峙；还在美国国防部长访华期间展示自行研制的隐形战机；其第一艘航母正在进行海试，并可能借此在印度洋地区建立海军基地。", "index": 8214}
{"en": "Even a brawl between the Chinese and a visiting American basketball team is viewed as evidence of China’s aggressive behavior.", "zh": "甚至连某支中国篮球队与到访美国队之间的殴斗都被视为中国咄咄逼人的佐证。", "index": 8215}
{"en": "Many Chinese, on the other hand, tend to think that the US is suffering from severe case of conceited superpower syndrome.", "zh": "另一方面，许多中国人则认为美国患上了目空一切的超级大国综合症，而且已经病入膏肓。", "index": 8216}
{"en": "As these Chinese see it, the US has a rather dysfunctional government, but nevertheless insists that its political and economic system is the best in the world, and that everyone should emulate it.", "zh": "在这些中国人眼中，美国人自己的政府办事不力，却坚称自身政治和金融系统世界第一，以模范自居。", "index": 8217}
{"en": "It is heavily in debt, but cannot stop spending and borrowing.", "zh": "这个国家早已负债累累，却无法停止消费和借钱。", "index": 8218}
{"en": "It is no longer competitive in manufacturing, but blames others for its huge trade deficit.", "zh": "其制造业竞争力辉煌不再，却把造成巨额贸易逆差的原因归咎于他人。", "index": 8219}
{"en": "And the world’s only military superpower is often seen within China as trigger-happy when intervening in other countries’ internal affairs.", "zh": "同时在中国人眼中这个全球唯一的军事强权极端好战，整天忙于干涉他国内政。", "index": 8220}
{"en": "Then, there is the issue of trust.", "zh": "接着出现的则是信任问题。", "index": 8221}
{"en": "China’s critics argue that its claims to a peaceful rise are not credible, given the country’s non-democratic, one-party system.", "zh": "那些批评中国的人认为所谓“和平崛起”的说法根本不可信，因为该国拥有一个不民主的一党制政治系统。", "index": 8222}
{"en": "Coupled with this is a zero-sum view of the world, in which any Chinese gain in the share of the global economy, or any increased presence in many parts of the world, must be at the expense of the US or other powers.", "zh": "与此观点并列的则是一个零和博弈的世界观，认为中国不断扩大的世界经济份额或者势力存在必然会以美国或者其他大国的利益为代价。", "index": 8223}
{"en": "Any Chinese military move is portrayed as an expansionary and aggressive act that must be contained.", "zh": "任何中国军事行动都被描述成必须被遏制的侵略扩张行为。", "index": 8224}
{"en": "Any attempts at engagement by Western politicians, such as Biden’s recent trip, are automatically met with doubt and criticism for cozying up to dictators.", "zh": "而西方政治家采取的任何举动（比如拜登访华）都会当即遭到质疑并被扣上巴结独裁者的帽子。", "index": 8225}
{"en": "Likewise, for those Chinese who are suspicious of US intentions, conspiracy is always in play.", "zh": "同样，对于那些对美国意图疑心重重的中国人来说，阴谋论总是有市场的。", "index": 8226}
{"en": "They see a declining superpower using economic, military, and diplomatic means in an unrelenting effort to prevent China’s rise.", "zh": "他们觉得美国这个日薄西山的超级大国正在想方设法用经济，军事和外交手段阻止中国崛起。", "index": 8227}
{"en": "Talk of human rights and democracy is nothing but a smoke screen for demonizing China.", "zh": "所有对人权和民主的讨论都是妄图妖魔化中国的烟雾弹。", "index": 8228}
{"en": "Arms sales to Taiwan, Tibetan activism, and “color revolutions” of various kinds are all sponsored by the US and other Western powers, and are aimed at weakening China.", "zh": "对台军售，藏独势力以及各类“颜色革命”都是美国以及其他西方势力背后资助的，而且唯一例外是为了削弱中国。", "index": 8229}
{"en": "Despite decades of close interaction, with millions of Americans, Europeans, and Japanese visiting China every year and similar numbers of Chinese now visiting the US and other advanced countries, both sides see each other through a glass darkly.", "zh": "尽管经历了数十年的密切交流，每年都数百万美国人，欧洲人和日本人以及中国人频繁到访对方的国家，双方却依然带着有色眼睛看待对方。", "index": 8230}
{"en": "Increased interdependence has not led to better understandings on even some of the most basic issues.", "zh": "不断提升的相互依存度仍然无法令双方在某些最基本问题上达成更深的了解。", "index": 8231}
{"en": "China’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Fu Ying expressed her country’s anxiety about this state of affairs in a recent interview. “The most important thing is the question of whether China and the US are enemies.", "zh": "对此中国外交部副部长傅莹在最近接受采访时表达了中方的忧虑 ： “ 我认为重要的问题是：中美两国是不是敌人？", "index": 8232}
{"en": "Are we going to be in a war?", "zh": "我们要走向战争吗？", "index": 8233}
{"en": "Are we preparing for a war against each other?”", "zh": "我们在准备要和对方开战吗？", "index": 8234}
{"en": "Biden, while reaffirming that the US does not view China as an enemy, implied that Fu’s worries are not fanciful, saying that the worst scenario is a misunderstanding that leads to an unintended conflict.", "zh": "”而拜登一方面重申美方并不视中方为敌，另一方面也暗示傅莹的担忧并非无中生有，认为最坏的情景莫过于因互相之间的误解而引发意料之外的冲突。", "index": 8235}
{"en": "So the key issue for China, its neighbors, the US, and rest of the world is not how many aircraft carriers, missiles, submarines, and next-generation fighters China may produce and deploy in the coming years and decades. Rather, it is how China intends to use its newly acquired economic and military strength in pursuing its domestic and foreign-policy goals – and how the world’s leading powers can ensure that they do not end up harming each other by accident or misunderstanding.", "zh": "因此对中国及其邻国，还有美国以及世界其他国家来说，最关键的问题不是中国将在未来几十年内部署多少航母、导弹，潜艇和战斗机，而是中国将如何运用新近获得的经济和军事实力去实现其内政外交政策 — — 以及这些世界大国如何防止因为意外或者误解而互相伤害。", "index": 8236}
{"en": "To meet these challenges successfully, there is no viable alternative to a positive, continuous, and frank engagement between China and the rest of the world.", "zh": "如果要成功应对着些挑战的话，唯一的方法就是在中国和其他国家之间实现积极，持续和坦诚的相互了解。", "index": 8237}
{"en": "The Chinese economy will continue to grow; the Chinese military will continue to modernize; and the Chinese people will remain united in their Great Power aspirations.", "zh": "中国经济必将继续增长；中国军队也将继续迈向现代化；而中国人民也将继续团结在大国崛起的理想之下。", "index": 8238}
{"en": "A Cold War-style confrontation and containment policy from the West will be met with strong resistance from the Chinese, whose global leverage, particularly in finance, cannot be ignored.", "zh": "西方的那套冷战对抗和遏制政策必将遭到中国人的强烈反抗, 而中国的全球杠杆作用（尤其在金融方面）也已强大到无法被忽视。", "index": 8239}
{"en": "Only a patient, creative, and consistent engagement strategy will mitigate fears on both sides.", "zh": "只有一个耐心，富有创造力并始终如一的沟通战略能消除双方的恐惧。", "index": 8240}
{"en": "China’s rise is a fact; the enduring peacefulness of that rise must be a priority for China, its neighbors, the West, and, most importantly, the US.", "zh": "中国的崛起已成事实；而在崛起期间的持久和平局面必然是中国，周边邻国，西方尤其是美国的第一要务。", "index": 8241}
{"en": "Inequality on the Horizon of Need", "zh": "需要中的不平等", "index": 8242}
{"en": "BERKELEY – By any economic measure, we are living in disappointing times.", "zh": "伯克利—不管用哪种经济衡量手段，我们都生活在令人失望的时代。", "index": 8243}
{"en": "In the United States, 7.2% of the normal productive labor currently stands idle, while the employment gap in Europe is rising and due to exceed that of the US by the end of the year.", "zh": "在美国，7.2%的普通生产性劳动力目前处于显著状态，而欧洲的就业缺口也在上升，并将在今年年底超过美国。", "index": 8244}
{"en": "So it is important to step back and remind ourselves that the “lost decade” that we are currently suffering is not our long-run economic destiny.", "zh": "因此后退一步提醒自己我们正在经历的“失去的十年”并不是长期经济宿命是很重要的。", "index": 8245}
{"en": "As Paul Krugman recently reminded us, John Maynard Keynes perhaps put it best:", "zh": "克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）最近提醒我们，凯恩斯说得好：", "index": 8246}
{"en": "“This is a nightmare, which will pass away with the morning.", "zh": "“这是场噩梦，终会过去迎来黎明。", "index": 8247}
{"en": "For the resources of nature and men’s devices are just as fertile and productive as they were.", "zh": "因为自然资源和人类设施与昔日一样富饶高产。", "index": 8248}
{"en": "The rate of our progress towards solving the material problems of life is not less rapid.", "zh": "我们迈向解决生活的物质问题的进程并没有减速。", "index": 8249}
{"en": "We are as capable as before of affording for everyone a high standard of life – high, I mean, compared with, say, 20 years ago – and will soon learn to afford a standard higher still.", "zh": "我们和从前一样有能力让所有人过上高质量生活 — — 我的意思是，比20年前质量更高的生活 — — 并且很快就能学会创造更高质量的生活。", "index": 8250}
{"en": "We were not previously deceived.", "zh": "此前我们并未遭遇背叛。", "index": 8251}
{"en": "But today we have involved ourselves in a colossal muddle, having blundered in the control of a delicate machine, the working of which we do not understand.", "zh": "但如今我们把自己带进了巨大的迷宫，不知所措地控制着一座精美的机器，我们无法理解它的工作模式。", "index": 8252}
{"en": "The result is that our possibilities of wealth may run to waste for a time.”", "zh": "结果是，我们的创富可能会遭到一时的浪费。 ”", "index": 8253}
{"en": "But what is our long-run economic destiny?", "zh": "但我们的长期经济宿命如何？", "index": 8254}
{"en": "Keynes looked forward to a time, perhaps 2050, when everyone (in England, at least) would be able to have the lifestyle of a Keynes.", "zh": "凯恩斯看到，在某个时间，也许是2050年，所有人（至少是所有英国人）将能够过上凯恩斯式的生活。", "index": 8255}
{"en": "And, because he imagined that no sane person could want more of the necessities, conveniences, and luxuries of life than a Keynes had, the economic problem would be solved.", "zh": "他认为，只要你不是疯子，就不会渴望比凯恩斯得到的还要多的必需品、改善品和奢侈品，因此，经济问题是可以解决的。", "index": 8256}
{"en": "We are wiser – and perhaps sadder – than Keynes.", "zh": "我们比凯恩斯更聪明，也许也更悲伤。", "index": 8257}
{"en": "We know that we want hip replacements and heart transplants and fertility treatment and cheap air travel and central heating and broadband Internet and exclusive beachfront access.", "zh": "我们知道我们想要整形手术、心脏移植、不孕不育治疗、廉价航空、中央供暖、宽带网络、专属海滩。", "index": 8258}
{"en": "Already nearly everybody in the North Atlantic region has enough food to avoid hunger, enough clothing to stay warm, enough shelter to remain dry.", "zh": "在北大西洋地区，几乎人人可以获得足够的食物避免饥饿，获得足够的衣物保证取暖，获得足够的住所保持干燥。", "index": 8259}
{"en": "And yet we want more, feel resentful when we do not get it, and are self-aware enough to know that luxuries turn into conveniences, and then into necessities – and that we are very good at inventing new luxuries after which to strive.", "zh": "但我们还想要更多，得不到就感到愤怒，心安理得地看到奢侈品变为改善品，在变为必需品 — — 我们已经非常擅长于发明新的奢侈品然后去追求它。", "index": 8260}
{"en": "So the economic problem will certainly be with us for a long time yet.", "zh": "因此这个经济问题必然会在很长一段时间里伴随我们。", "index": 8261}
{"en": "But at least we can count on being able to generate a relatively egalitarian middle-class society as we collectively slouch toward our consumerist utopia, right?", "zh": "但至少我们指望创造相对平等的中产阶级社会，让我们行尸走肉般地迈向消费至上主义乌托邦，不是吗？", "index": 8262}
{"en": "It was Karl Smith of the University of North Carolina who explained to me that this was likely to be wrong.", "zh": "北卡罗来纳大学的卡尔·史密斯（Karl Smith）向我解释了这也许是错的。", "index": 8263}
{"en": "The long post-Industrial Revolution boom, which carried unskilled workers’ wages to previously unheard-of heights – keeping them within shouting (or at least dreaming) distance of the lifestyles of the rich and famous – is not necessarily a good guide to what will come next.", "zh": "长时间的后工业革命繁荣把低技能工人的工资推高到了前所未闻的高度 — — 让他们能够觊觎（至少能够梦想）富人和名人的生活方式，但这并不是很好的未来指南。", "index": 8264}
{"en": "To create wealth, you need ideas about how to shape matter and energy, additional energy itself to carry out the shaping, and instrumentalities to control the shaping as it is accomplished.", "zh": "为了创造财富，你需要的是如何改变事情和能量的思想、更多的能量本身从而带来改变，以及当改变完成时控制它的工具。", "index": 8265}
{"en": "The Industrial Revolution brought ideas and energy to the table, but human brains remained the only effective instrumentalities of control.", "zh": "工业革命带来了思想和能量，但人的大脑依然是唯一的有效控制工具。", "index": 8266}
{"en": "As ideas and energy became cheap, the human brains that were their complements became valuable.", "zh": "随着思想和能量变得廉价，人脑就成了珍贵的补充品。", "index": 8267}
{"en": "But, as we move into a future of artificial intelligence that observers like Kevin Drum expect (or even of the artificial moronity that is already clearly at hand), and into a future of biotechnology that grows itself as biological systems do, won’t human brains cease to be the only valuable instrumentalities of control?", "zh": "但是，随着我们步入凯文·德朗姆（Kevin Drum）等观察家所预期的人工智能未来（甚至已经显然实现的低层次人工智能 ） ， 步入生物技术本身如同生物系统增长的未来，人脑会不再是唯一有价值的控制工具吗？", "index": 8268}
{"en": "It is not necessarily the case that “unskilled” workers’ standards of living will fall in absolute terms: the same factors that make human brains less valuable may well be working equally effectively to reduce the costs of life’s necessities, conveniences, and luxuries.", "zh": "这并不一定意味着“低技能”工人的绝对生活水平会下降：让人脑价值下降的因素或许也能同样有效降低生活必需品、改善品和奢侈品的成本。", "index": 8269}
{"en": "But wealth is likely to flow to the owners of productive – or perhaps fashionable – ideas, and to owners of things that can be imitated only with great difficulty and high cost, even with dirt-cheap instrumentalities of control, dirt-cheap energy, and plentiful ideas.", "zh": "但财富可能将流向生产性 — — 也许还包括时尚性 — — 思想，流向拥有仿制难度和成本极高之物的所有者，即使控制工具和能量极为廉价，思想遍地开花。", "index": 8270}
{"en": "The lesson is clear: the market is not guaranteed by nature to produce a long-run future characterized by a reasonable degree of wealth inequality and relative poverty.", "zh": "教训是显然的：市场并不天然保证能产生以合理财富不均和相对贫困为特征的长期未来。", "index": 8271}
{"en": "Unless and until we recognize this fully, we will remain at the mercy of Keynes’s poorly understood “delicate machine.”", "zh": "除非我们有朝一日能充分认识到这一点，否则我们将继续陷于凯恩斯不为人所理解的“精美的机器”中。", "index": 8272}
{"en": "Alpine Schadenfreude", "zh": "阿尔卑斯的幸灾乐祸", "index": 8273}
{"en": "Not surprisingly, the atmosphere at this year’s World Economic Forum was grim.", "zh": "今年世界经济论坛的气氛毫不奇怪地显得非常糟糕。", "index": 8274}
{"en": "Those who think that globalization, technology, and the market economy will solve the world’s problems seemed subdued.", "zh": "那些认为全球化、技术和市场经济可以解决世界的难题的人似乎都不出声了。", "index": 8275}
{"en": "Most chastened of all were the bankers.", "zh": "受到指责最多的是那些银行家。", "index": 8276}
{"en": "Against the backdrop of the sub-prime crisis, the disasters at many financial institutions, and the weakening of the stock market, these “masters of the universe” seemed less omniscient than they did a short while ago.", "zh": "在次贷危机、许多金融机构面临灾难和股市低迷的背景下，这些“世界统治者”似乎没有像他们前一段时间那样无所不知了。", "index": 8277}
{"en": "And it was not just the bankers who were in the Davos doghouse this year, but also their regulators – the central bankers.", "zh": "但是在今年的达沃斯被关进狗屋里的不仅仅是这些银行家，还有他们的监管者，也就是各国的中央银行。", "index": 8278}
{"en": "Anyone who goes to international conferences is used to hearing Americans lecture everyone else about transparency.", "zh": "参加国际会议的人都习惯于听美国人教训其他国家要更加透明。", "index": 8279}
{"en": "There was still some of that at Davos.", "zh": "在达沃斯还是有一些这样的人。", "index": 8280}
{"en": "I heard the usual suspects – including a former treasury secretary who had been particularly vociferous in such admonishments during the East Asia crisis – bang on about the need for transparency at sovereign wealth funds (though not at American or European hedge funds).", "zh": "我听到了常有的质疑声，包括一位在东亚金融危机期间在这些告诫方面叫嚷得特别厉害的前财政部长，喋喋不休地要求主权基金更加透明（但却没有提美国或欧洲的对冲基金 ） 。", "index": 8281}
{"en": "But this time, developing countries could not resist commenting on the hypocrisy of it all.  There was even a touch of schadenfreude in the air about the problems the United States is having right now – though it was moderated, of course, by worries about the downturn’s impact on their own economies.", "zh": "但是这一次，发展中国家会忍不住站出来批评他们这种说法的虚伪性。 甚至对于美国目前正面临的困难有一种幸灾乐祸的态度，当然是比较克制的，因为他们担心这种下滑对于他们自己经济的影响。", "index": 8282}
{"en": "Had America really told others to bring in American banks to teach them about how to run their business?", "zh": "难道美国没有告诉其他国家让美国的银行进入它们的市场以便教它们如何经营它们的业务？", "index": 8283}
{"en": "Had America really boasted about its superior risk management systems, going so far as to develop a new regulatory system (called Basle II)?", "zh": "难道美国没有吹嘘过它出色的危机管理体系，甚至制定了一个新的监管体系（称为第二代巴塞尔资本协定 ） ？", "index": 8284}
{"en": "Basle II is dead – at least until memories of the current disaster fade.", "zh": "第二代巴塞尔资本协定已经死了，至少要等到对目前危机的记忆消退的时候才能复活。", "index": 8285}
{"en": "Bankers – and the rating agencies – believed in financial alchemy.", "zh": "银行还有信用评级机构迷信金融炼金术。", "index": 8286}
{"en": "They thought that financial innovations could somehow turn bad mortgages into good securities, meriting AAA ratings.", "zh": "它们认为金融创新可以在某种程度上把差的抵押贷款变为值得给予AAA评级的优质证券。", "index": 8287}
{"en": "But one lesson of modern finance theory is that, in well functioning financial markets, repackaging risks should not make much difference.", "zh": "但是现代金融理论其中的一个课程是在功能完善的金融市场，重新打包的风险并没有太大的差别。", "index": 8288}
{"en": "If we know the price of cream and the price of skim milk, we can figure out the price of milk with 1% cream, 2% cream, or 4% cream.", "zh": "如果我们知道乳酪和脱脂牛奶的价格，我们就能计算出含1 % 、 2%或4%乳酪的牛奶的价格。", "index": 8289}
{"en": "There might be some money in repackaging, but not the billions that banks made by slicing and dicing sub-prime mortgages into packages whose value was much greater than their contents.", "zh": "通过重新打包也许可以产生一些钱，但是银行绝对无法通过把次级抵押贷款分割后包装成价值远远超出其实质价值的产品而获利几十亿美元。", "index": 8290}
{"en": "It seemed too good to be true – and it was.", "zh": "这样的事情看上去太美妙而不可能是真的，但是它确实发生的。", "index": 8291}
{"en": "Worse, banks failed to understand the first principle of risk management: diversification only works when risks are not correlated, and macro-shocks (such as those that affect housing prices or borrowers’ ability to repay) affect the probability of default for all mortgages.", "zh": "更糟糕的是，银行没有理解风险管理的第一原则，也就是分散风险只有在这些风险相互没有关联时才有效，而大规模的冲击（比如影响房价或借贷者还款能力的那些冲击）可能会使所有的抵押贷款都出现不履行债务的情况。", "index": 8292}
{"en": "I argued at Davos that central bankers also got it wrong by misjudging the threat of a downturn and failing to provide sufficient regulation.", "zh": "我在达沃斯会议上指出中央银行也犯下了错误，它们误判了经济下滑的威胁并且没有提高足够的监管。", "index": 8293}
{"en": "They waited too long to take action.", "zh": "它们等了太长时间才采取行动。", "index": 8294}
{"en": "Because it normally takes a year or more for the full effects of monetary policy to be felt, central banks need to act preemptively, not reactively.", "zh": "因为货币政策的全面效果至少要过一年或者更长时间才能感觉到，中央银行需要预先采取行动，而不是出现问题才做出反应。", "index": 8295}
{"en": "Worse, the US Federal Reserve and its previous chairman, Alan Greenspan, may have helped create the problem, encouraging households to take on risky variable-rate mortgages by reassuring those who worried about a housing bubble that there was at most a little “froth” in the market.", "zh": "更糟糕的是，美联储和它的前主席格林斯潘也许帮助制造了这场困难，他们鼓励家庭接受有风险的可变利率抵押贷款，并且一再向那些担心房地产泡沫的人保证市场上最多只有一点点“泡沫 ” 。", "index": 8296}
{"en": "Normally, a Davos audience would rally to the support of the central bankers.", "zh": "通常，达沃斯的与会者会一致支持中央银行。", "index": 8297}
{"en": "This time, a vote at the end of the session supported my view by a margin of three to one.", "zh": "但是这一次，在会议结束时进行的一项投票有四分之三的人支持我的观点。", "index": 8298}
{"en": "Even the plea of one of central banker that “no one could have predicted the problems” moved few in the audience – perhaps because several people sitting there had, like me, explicitly warned about the impending problem in previous years.", "zh": "即便有一家中央银行辩解说“没有人能够预计到这些困难 ” ， 也只是打动了很少一些听众，也许是因为坐在那儿的几个人像我一样在过去几年一直明确地警告即将面临的困难。", "index": 8299}
{"en": "The only thing we got wrong was how bad banks’ lending practices were, how non-transparent banks really were, and how inadequate their risk management systems were.", "zh": "我们唯一没有预测到的就是银行的借贷行为 到底有多糟糕 ，这些银行 到底有多不透明 以及它们的风险管理体系到底有多不恰当。", "index": 8300}
{"en": "It was interesting to see the different cultural attitudes to the crisis on display.", "zh": "有趣的是看到不同的文化对于正在上演的这场危机不同的态度。", "index": 8301}
{"en": "In Japan, the CEO of a major bank would have apologized to his employees and his country, and would have refused his pension and bonus so that those who suffered as a result of corporate failures could share the money.", "zh": "在日本，一家主要银行的首席执行官会向他的员工和他的国家道歉，并且会拒绝领他的养老金和奖金以便让那些因为公司经营的失败而遭受损失的人能够分享这笔钱。", "index": 8302}
{"en": "He would have resigned.", "zh": "他可能会辞职。", "index": 8303}
{"en": "In America, the only questions are whether a board will force a CEO to leave and, if so, how big his severance package will be.", "zh": "而在美国，唯一的问题是董事会是否会 迫使 一位首席执行官离开，以及如果让他离开的话，应该支付给他多少离职津贴。", "index": 8304}
{"en": "When I asked one CEO whether there was any discussion of returning their bonuses, the response was not just no, but an aggressive defense of the bonus system.", "zh": "当我问一位首席执行官是否讨论过归还他们的奖金问题，回答不仅仅是简单的没有，而是大声地为奖金制度辩解。", "index": 8305}
{"en": "This is the third US crisis in the past 20 years, after the Savings & Loan crisis of 1989 and the Enron/WorldCom crisis in 2002.", "zh": "这是过去20年来美国发生的第三场危机了，前两次危机是1989年的储蓄信贷机构危机和2002年的安然/世通公司危机。", "index": 8306}
{"en": "Deregulation has not worked.", "zh": "解除管制并没有产生效果。", "index": 8307}
{"en": "Unfettered markets may produce big bonuses for CEO’s, but they do not lead, as if by an invisible hand, to societal well-being.", "zh": "被解除束缚的市场也许给首席执行官们带来了更多的奖金，但是它们并没有就像是通过一只无形的手带来社会的幸福。", "index": 8308}
{"en": "Until we achieve a better balance between markets and government, the world will continue to pay a high price.", "zh": "除非我们在市场和政府间获得更好的平衡，世界将依然付出高昂的代价。", "index": 8309}
{"en": "Effective Altruism", "zh": "有效利他主义", "index": 8310}
{"en": "PRINCETON – Can humans really be motivated by altruism?", "zh": "普林斯顿—人类真的可以受利他主义的驱动？", "index": 8311}
{"en": "My new book, The Most Good You Can Do, discusses the emerging new movement called Effective Altruism, and, in doing interviews about the book, I am surprised by how often that question is asked.", "zh": "我的新书《你能做的最大善事 》 （ The Most Good You Can Do）讨论了被称为“有效利他主义 ” （ Effective Altruism）的新出现的运动，在关于这本书的访谈中，我惊奇地发现这个问题是如此频繁地提及。", "index": 8312}
{"en": "Why should we doubt that some people act altruistically, at least some of the time?", "zh": "为何我们要怀疑有人至少会有时采取利他行为？", "index": 8313}
{"en": "In evolutionary terms, we can easily understand altruism toward kin and others who can reciprocate our help.", "zh": "从进化论的角度，我们很容易就能理解对家人和可回馈帮助的人的利他主义。", "index": 8314}
{"en": "It seems plausible that once our ability to reason and reflect has developed sufficiently enough to enable us to understand that strangers can suffer and enjoy life just as we can, then at least some of us would act altruistically toward strangers, too.", "zh": "一个很有道理的说法是，如果我们推理和思考的能力足够发达，可以确保我们明白陌生人可以与我们一样受苦或享受生活，那么至少我们中一部分人也会对陌生人有利他行为。", "index": 8315}
{"en": "The polling organization Gallup asked people in 135 countries whether they had, in the last month, donated money to a charity, volunteered their time to an organization, or helped a stranger.", "zh": "民调组织盖洛普公司（Gallup）询问了135个国家的人在过去一个月中是否为慈善组织捐过钱、为某个组织贡献义务劳动，或者帮助过某个陌生人。", "index": 8316}
{"en": "Gallup’s results, which form the basis of the World Giving Index 2014, indicate that approximately 2.3 billion people, a third of the world’s population, perform at least one altruistic act per month.", "zh": "盖洛普调查的结果 — — 也是2014年世界奉献指数（World Giving Index 2014）的基础 — — 表明大约23亿人，即世界人口的三分之一，每个月至少会有一次利他行为。", "index": 8317}
{"en": "More objective evidence of altruism buttresses these findings.", "zh": "更客观的利他主义证据也支持这一发现。", "index": 8318}
{"en": "In many countries, the supply of blood for medical purposes relies on voluntary, anonymous donations.", "zh": "在许多国家，医用目的血液供应依靠志愿匿名献血。", "index": 8319}
{"en": "Worldwide, more than 11 million people have put their names on donor registries for bone marrow, signifying their willingness to donate their marrow to a stranger.", "zh": "从全球看，超过1,100万人在骨髓捐献数据库中注册，表示愿意向陌生人捐献自己的骨髓。", "index": 8320}
{"en": "A small but growing number of people have gone further still, donating a kidney to a stranger.", "zh": "少数人（但人数在不断增加）更进一步，愿意为陌生人捐献肾脏。", "index": 8321}
{"en": "There were 177 altruistic donations by living donors in the United States in 2013 and 118 in the United Kingdom in the year to April 2014.", "zh": "2013年美国有177例在世捐献者的利他捐献，2013年5月—2014年4月英国有118例。", "index": 8322}
{"en": "Then there are those who donate to charity.", "zh": "接下来我们看看慈善捐赠。", "index": 8323}
{"en": "In the US alone, individuals gave $240 billion to charity in 2013.", "zh": "光是在美国，2013年就有2,400亿美元的个人慈善捐赠。", "index": 8324}
{"en": "Foundations and corporations topped this up to a total of $335 billion, or about 2% of gross national income.", "zh": "加上基金会和企业的捐献，总数达到了3,350亿美元，或国民总收入的2 % 。", "index": 8325}
{"en": "The US is often said to be more charitable than other countries; but, in terms of the proportion of the population donating money, Myanmar, Malta, Ireland, the UK, Canada, the Netherlands, and Iceland all do better.", "zh": "人们通常认为，美国比其他国家更加乐善好施；但是，就人口捐钱比例而言，缅甸、马耳他、爱尔兰、英国、加拿大、荷兰和冰岛都比美国做得更好。", "index": 8326}
{"en": "In Myanmar, 91% of the people surveyed had given money in the past month (the corresponding figure for the US is 68%), indicating the strong hold of the Theravada Buddhist tradition of donating to support monks and nuns.", "zh": "在缅甸，91%的受访者在过去一个月中捐过钱（美国的这一比例为68 % ） ，这体现了支持和尚和尼姑的深厚的小乘佛教捐献传统。", "index": 8327}
{"en": "Myanmar also had the highest percentage of people volunteering time (51%).", "zh": "缅甸也是义务劳动时间比例最高的国家（51 % ） 。", "index": 8328}
{"en": "The US did, however, have the highest ranking for “helping a stranger.”", "zh": "但是，美国在“帮助陌生人”方面的评分最高。", "index": 8329}
{"en": "That, together with a high ranking for volunteering time, led it to tie with Myanmar as the most generous nation in the world.", "zh": "再加上在义务劳动时间上的高分，使美国与缅甸一起成为世界上最慷慨的国家。", "index": 8330}
{"en": "Admittedly, not all of this giving is altruistic.", "zh": "诚然，这些奉献并不完全是利他的。", "index": 8331}
{"en": "New York’s Lincoln Center announced last month that the billionaire entertainment industry mogul David Geffen has donated $100 million toward the renovation of its concert facility, Avery Fisher Hall, on the condition that it is renamed David Geffen Hall.", "zh": "纽约林肯中心上个月宣布，亿万富翁、娱乐业大佬大卫·格芬（David Geffen）为其音乐会设施艾弗里·费雪音乐厅（Avery Fisher Hall）捐献1亿美元，条件是将该音乐厅改名为大卫·格芬音乐厅。", "index": 8332}
{"en": "That gift seems motivated more by a desire for fame than a desire to do good.", "zh": "这份礼物似乎更多是受名誉而非行善驱动。", "index": 8333}
{"en": "After all, as Geffen presumably knew, the family of Avery Fisher had to be compensated with a payment of $15 million in order to agree to the renaming.", "zh": "毕竟，格芬事先就已知道，让艾弗里·费雪家族同意改名需要给他们1,500万美元补偿。", "index": 8334}
{"en": "In any case, in a world with a billion people living in extreme poverty, it would not be difficult for an altruist to appreciate that there are many ways of doing more good than renovating a concert hall for well-off music lovers.", "zh": "无论如何，在这个十亿人生活在极端贫困中的世界，一个利他主义者多半会认为，有许多事情比整修为音乐爱好者服务的演出厅更加慈善。", "index": 8335}
{"en": "At the opposite end of the giving spectrum, psychologists who study giving behavior have suggested that people who give small sums of money to a large number of charities may be motivated less by the desire to help others than by the warm glow they get from making a donation.", "zh": "在奉献人群的反面，研究奉献行为的心理学家认为，向大量慈善机构捐小钱的人与其说是受助人愿望的驱使，不如说是为了从捐钱行为中获得的温情效应（warm glow ） 。", "index": 8336}
{"en": "By contrast, other donors give larger sums, usually to only a handful of charities chosen on the basis of some knowledge about what the charity is doing.", "zh": "相反，其他捐献者捐更多的钱，并且通常只根据关于慈善机构正在进行的活动的信息选择少数机构。", "index": 8337}
{"en": "They want to have a positive impact on the world.", "zh": "他们希望给世界带来一些正能量。", "index": 8338}
{"en": "Their gifts may also make their lives better, but this is not what motivates them.", "zh": "他们的捐献也让他们的生活变得更好，但这不是驱动他们的原因。", "index": 8339}
{"en": "The Effective Altruism movement consists of people who give in the latter way, combining the head and the heart.", "zh": "有效利他主义运动由后一种捐献者构成，他们是知行合一之士。", "index": 8340}
{"en": "Their aim is to do the most good they can with the resources that they are willing to set aside for that purpose.", "zh": "���们的目标是用他们所愿意拿来用于慈善目的的资源尽可能地做最大的善事。", "index": 8341}
{"en": "Those resources may include a tenth, a quarter, or even half of their income.", "zh": "这些资源可能包括他们的收入的十分之一、四分之一乃至二分之一。", "index": 8342}
{"en": "Their altruism may include their time and talents, and influence their choice of career.", "zh": "他们的利他主义也许包括他们的时间和才华，并影响他们的职业选择。", "index": 8343}
{"en": "To achieve their aims, they use reason and evidence to ensure that whatever resources they devote to doing good will be as effective as possible.", "zh": "为了实现他们的目标，他们用理性和证据确保他们用于做善事的资源尽可能地有效使用。", "index": 8344}
{"en": "Several studies show that people who are generous are typically happier and more satisfied with their lives than those who do not give.", "zh": "一些研究表明慷慨的人通常比不奉献的人更快乐、更满意于生活。", "index": 8345}
{"en": "And other studies show that giving leads to activity in the reward centers of the brain (the areas of the brain that are also stimulated by tasty food and sex).", "zh": "也有一些研究表明奉献引起大脑回馈中心活动（回馈中心是大脑的区域，也受美食和性行为的刺激 ） 。", "index": 8346}
{"en": "But this does not mean that these donors are not altruistic.", "zh": "但这并不意味着这些捐赠者不是利他的。", "index": 8347}
{"en": "Their direct motive is to help others, and their giving makes them happier only as a consequence of the fact that it does help others.", "zh": "他们的直接动机是帮助他人，他们的奉献给让他们更快乐，这只是奉献确实帮助了他人的结果。", "index": 8348}
{"en": "If we had more such people, we would have more giving, and that is what we want.", "zh": "如果这样的人更多一些，就会有更多的奉献，而这就是我们想要的。", "index": 8349}
{"en": "To define “altruism” so narrowly that the term can be applied only when giving is contrary to a person’s overall interest would miss the point that the best situation to bring about is one in which promoting the interests of others harmonizes with promoting one’s own.", "zh": "将“利他主义”的定义定得如此狭隘，以至于只能用于奉献与个人总体利益相悖的情形，这就失去了最重要的要点 — — 最理想的状况莫过于促进他人利益与促进自身利益一致。", "index": 8350}
{"en": "Testing Times for Alzheimer’s", "zh": "阿尔茨海默症的考验时刻", "index": 8351}
{"en": "LONDON – Alzheimer’s disease is by far the most common cause of dementia and one of the world’s most feared disorders.", "zh": "伦敦—阿尔茨海默症是目前最常见的痴呆诱发因素，也是世界上最令人恐慌的神经疾病。", "index": 8352}
{"en": "By 2050, there will be 135 million Alzheimer’s sufferers worldwide, a threefold increase from today, with three-quarters of cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries.", "zh": "到2050年，全球将有1.35亿阿尔茨海默症患者，较目前增加三倍，其中四分之三发生在中低收入国家。", "index": 8353}
{"en": "Predicting the onset of Alzheimer’s, let alone preventing or curing it, remains an immense challenge.", "zh": "预测阿尔茨海默的开始 — — 更不用说预防和治疗了 — — 仍是一个巨大的挑战。", "index": 8354}
{"en": "Alzheimer’s disease was identified more than a century ago from autopsy results that showed characteristic brain lesions called “amyloid plaques.”", "zh": "阿尔茨海默症在一个世纪多前通过尸体解剖结果发现，其特征是被称为“淀粉样斑块”的脑损伤。", "index": 8355}
{"en": "The disease is more difficult to diagnose in the living.", "zh": "该病在活着时更难诊断。", "index": 8356}
{"en": "Doctors rely on observation of memory loss and other thinking deficits (such as reasoning or language comprehension) – signs that plaques are already present in the brain.", "zh": "医生依靠观察记忆丧失和其他思维缺陷（如推理和语言理解力）做出诊断 — — 这些迹象表明脑部已经出现损伤。", "index": 8357}
{"en": "But any cure would have to be administered before the plaques form, and years before symptoms of dementia appear.", "zh": "但需要在这些斑块形成前进行治疗才行，这时距离出现痴呆症状还有几年时间。", "index": 8358}
{"en": "Alzheimer’s might be more predictable if scientists had the time and resources to conduct far-reaching longitudinal studies over many years.", "zh": "如果科学家有时间和资源进行为期多年的深入的纵向研究，阿尔茨海默症的可预测性可能会有所提高。", "index": 8359}
{"en": "Such studies ideally would involve blood, imaging, memory, and medical tests, as well as detailed lifestyle questionnaires filled out by thousands of young and middle-aged people.", "zh": "这些研究最好包括对数千青年和中年人进行血液、影像、记忆和医学测试以及详细的生活方式问卷调查。", "index": 8360}
{"en": "Study participants would be followed over decades to see who developed the disease, and which tests proved positive before Alzheimer’s was diagnosed.", "zh": "研究参与者将受到为期数十年的跟踪，以观察谁发展出阿尔茨海默症，哪些测试在阿尔茨海默症获得诊断之前就能有所察觉。", "index": 8361}
{"en": "In fact, two famous longitudinal studies – the Framingham Heart Study in Massachusetts and the Kungsholmen Project in Sweden – have led to important progress in predicting the disease.", "zh": "事实上，两项著名的纵向研究 — — 马萨诸塞州的弗莱明汉姆心脏研究（Framingham Heart Study）和瑞典的国王岛项目（Kungsholmen Project）在阿尔茨海默症的预测方面获得了重要进展。", "index": 8362}
{"en": "These studies found that short-term memory may be impaired for up to ten years before an Alzheimer’s diagnosis.", "zh": "这些研究发现，在阿尔茨海默症被诊断出十年前，就有可能出现短期记忆损害。", "index": 8363}
{"en": "Major advances have since been made in brain imaging, biochemical analysis, and, perhaps most important, genetic testing.", "zh": "此后，大脑造影、生化分析以及 — — 也许是最重要的 — — 基因测试取得了重大进展。", "index": 8364}
{"en": "Indeed, the risk of Alzheimer’s doubles if a parent or sibling has it, probably due in large part to the presence of the ApoE gene.", "zh": "事实上，如果双亲或兄弟姐妹中有人罹患阿尔茨海默症，你的患病风险也将翻番，这很有可能是因为ApoE基因所赐。", "index": 8365}
{"en": "The risk triples for Europeans who inherit a particular type of ApoE, called ε4; inheriting two copies of ε4 increases the risk roughly tenfold.", "zh": "遗传了某种ApoE基因（ε4）的欧洲人得阿尔茨海默症的概率会增加两倍；遗传双份ε4基因会让概率增加大约十倍。", "index": 8366}
{"en": "But genetic testing alone is unlikely to be an accurate predictor, because around half of Alzheimer’s sufferers do not carry ε4, and probably half of those with ε4 do not develop the disease.", "zh": "但光靠基因测试无法作为准确的指标，因为大约一半的阿尔茨海默症患者不携带ε4，并且可能有一半的ε4携带者不会发生阿尔茨海默症。", "index": 8367}
{"en": "Moreover, though international studies of more than 70,000 people have found over 20 other genes linked to Alzheimer’s, their impact is minimal.", "zh": "此外，尽管对70,000多人的国际研究表明有20多个基因与阿尔茨海默症有关，但它们的作用很小。", "index": 8368}
{"en": "That said, a groundbreaking 2012 study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, analyzed a rare genetic mutation found in just 500 families around the world, which would lead to Alzheimer’s before the age of 50.", "zh": "尽管如此 ， 《 新英格兰医学期刊 》 （ New England Journal of Medicine）上发表的一篇2012年的突破性研究分析了一个只在全世界500个家族身上发生的罕见基因突变，该突变会导致50岁前罹患阿尔茨海默症。", "index": 8369}
{"en": "The study showed which tests were able to predict the outcome most accurately decades ahead of onset.", "zh": "研究表明了那些测试可以在症状出现前几十年最准确地预测结果。", "index": 8370}
{"en": "The research found that amyloid-beta – the substance that clumps together and forms amyloid plaques – becomes depleted in the cerebrospinal fluid around the brain as long as 25 years before the onset of dementia.", "zh": "研究发现，乙型淀粉样蛋白（amyloid-beta，这种物质会结团形成淀粉样斑块）会在痴呆症状出现前25年就消失于大脑周边的脑脊液中。", "index": 8371}
{"en": "Fifteen years prior to onset, a positron emission tomography (PET) scan showed amyloid-beta being deposited in plaques in the brain itself.", "zh": "痴呆症状出现前十五年，正电子发射成像术（PET）扫描显示乙型淀粉样蛋白正在大脑本身的斑块中堆积。", "index": 8372}
{"en": "And detailed short-term memory tests were abnormal ten years before onset, as suggested in the Framingham and Kungsholmen studies.", "zh": "弗莱明汉姆和国王岛研究表明，痴呆症状出现前十年，详细短期记忆测试会有不正常表现。", "index": 8373}
{"en": "These tests are now becoming part of clinical practice, and are available commercially.", "zh": "这些测试目前正在成为临床实践的一部分，并以投入商业应用。", "index": 8374}
{"en": "Memory and other cognitive tests can reveal whether one has minor problems with some aspects of thinking – a condition known as “mild cognitive impairment” that precedes Alzheimer’s disease.", "zh": "记忆和其他认知测试可以揭示你是否在思维的某些方面存在小问题 — — 所谓的“温和认知损伤 ” ， 常常在阿尔茨海默症之前出现。", "index": 8375}
{"en": "The problem is that the tests must be administered by a trained neuropsychologist and take more than an hour to complete; moreover, many people with mild cognitive impairment do not progress to dementia.", "zh": "问题是这些测试必须由受过训练的神经心理学家进行，需要一个多小时时间完成；此外，许多有温和认知损伤的人并不会出现痴呆。", "index": 8376}
{"en": "Sampling cerebrospinal fluid via a lumbar puncture (or “spinal tap”) can predict which people with mild cognitive impairment will progress to dementia with over 80% accuracy, but this still means a misdiagnosis for one in five patients.", "zh": "通过腰椎穿刺（或“脊椎抽��� ” ） 进行脑脊液取样可以预测存在温和认知损伤的人是否会出现痴呆，准确率在80%以上，但这仍然意味着每五人就有一人遭遇误诊。", "index": 8377}
{"en": "PET scans are slightly less accurate, while routine MRI brain scans can reveal with perhaps only 70% accuracy subtle abnormalities in people with mild cognitive impairment.", "zh": "PET扫描准确率略低，而常规的MRI脑部扫描大概只能揭示70%的存在温和认知损伤人士的准确微小异常。", "index": 8378}
{"en": "Scientists are therefore still searching for an accurate predictive test that is cheaper, quicker, and less invasive than PET scans or lumbar punctures.", "zh": "因此，科学家仍在寻找比PET扫描或腰椎穿刺更廉价、更快速、更加不痛苦的准确预测测试方法。", "index": 8379}
{"en": "This year, two small studies of blood tests seemed to predict Alzheimer’s 1-3 years before it occurred, but the tests are complicated and require the measurement of ten or more substances.", "zh": "今年，两项小型血液测试研究似乎可以在阿尔茨海默症出现前1—3年作出预测，但测试很复杂，需要测量十种或以上物质。", "index": 8380}
{"en": "Whichever predictive methods doctors use over the next few years will probably enable them to inform those patients with mild cognitive impairment about their chances of developing Alzheimer’s in the short term.", "zh": "不管未来几年医生使用什么预测方法，也许都能使他们能够告知存在温和认知损伤的患者短期内罹患阿尔茨海默症的概率。", "index": 8381}
{"en": "The trickier question is whether we will be able to predict Alzheimer’s disease accurately in those with normal cognition and memory, or to predict it more than five years in advance.", "zh": "更困难的问题是我们是否能够准确预测认知和记忆能力正常人士的阿尔茨海默症，或在阿尔茨海默症出现五年前就做出预测。", "index": 8382}
{"en": "Even if accurate early prediction of Alzheimer’s eventually is achieved, there are currently no drugs available to prevent or cure it before the amyloid plaques start destroying the mind.", "zh": "即使最终实现了阿尔茨海默症的早期准确预测，目前也没有药物能够在淀粉样斑块破坏思维之前预防或治疗阿尔茨海默症。", "index": 8383}
{"en": "That will be our next great challenge.", "zh": "这将是下一个大挑战。", "index": 8384}
{"en": "Africa’s Necessary Data Revolution", "zh": "非洲需要数据革命", "index": 8385}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Since the term “data revolution” was introduced, there has been a flurry of activity to define, develop, and implement an agenda to transform the collection, use, and distribution of development statistics.", "zh": "华盛顿—自从“数据革命”一词出现以来，涌现出大量动作定义、发展和实施日程以改变发展统计数据的收集、使用和分配。", "index": 8386}
{"en": "That makes sense.", "zh": "这是有意义的事情。", "index": 8387}
{"en": "Assessing the international community’s next development agenda, regardless of its details, will be impossible without accurate data.", "zh": "要想评估国际社会的下一个发展日程（不管其细节如何 ） ， 没有准确地数据是万万不能的。", "index": 8388}
{"en": "Yet, in Sub-Saharan Africa – the region with the most potential for progress under the forthcoming Sustainable Development Goals – accurate data are severely lacking.", "zh": "但是，在撒哈拉以南非洲 — — 在即将到来的可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals）的指引下，该地区拥有最大的进步潜力 — — 极度缺乏准确数据。", "index": 8389}
{"en": "From 1990 to 2009, only one Sub-Saharan country had data on all 12 indicators established in 2000 by the Millennium Development Goals.", "zh": "从1990年到2009年，只有一个撒哈拉以南国家拥有2000年千年发展目标（Millennium Development Goals）所制定的全部12项指标的数据。", "index": 8390}
{"en": "Indeed, of the 60 countries with complete vital statistics, not one is in Africa.", "zh": "事实上，在关键统计数据完备的60个国家中，没有一个是非洲国家。", "index": 8391}
{"en": "While most African countries have likely experienced economic growth during the last decade, the accuracy of the data on which growth estimates are based – not to mention data on inflation, food production, education, and vaccination rates – remains far from adequate.", "zh": "尽管大部分非洲国家在过去十年中都经历了经济增长，但作为增长估算的基础的数据的准确性仍有较大差距，更不用说通货膨胀、粮食生产、教育和疫苗接种率等数据了。", "index": 8392}
{"en": "Inaccurate data can have serious consequences.", "zh": "失准的数据可能造成严重后果。", "index": 8393}
{"en": "Consider Nigeria’s experience earlier this year, when GDP rebasing showed that the economy was nearly 90% larger than previously thought.", "zh": "以今年早些时候的尼日利亚为例，GDP重估表明该国经济比此前认为的要大近90 % 。", "index": 8394}
{"en": "The distorted picture of Nigeria’s economy provided by the previous statistics likely led to misguided decisions regarding private investment, credit ratings, and taxation.", "zh": "此前的数据对尼日利亚经济的扭曲刻画可能导致私人投资、信用评级和税收等方面的决策不当。", "index": 8395}
{"en": "Moreover, it meant that Nigeria was allocated more international aid than it merited – aid that could have gone to needier countries.", "zh": "此外，这意味着尼日利亚获得了比它所应该获得的更多的国际援助 — — 这些援助本可以用于更加需要的国家。", "index": 8396}
{"en": "Contrary to popular belief, the constraints on the production and use of basic data stem not from a shortage of technical capacity and knowhow, but from underlying political and systemic challenges.", "zh": "与流行观点相反，基本数据生产和使用的约束并非来自技术能力和知识的欠缺，而是来自基本政治和制度挑战。", "index": 8397}
{"en": "For starters, national statistical offices often lack the institutional autonomy needed to protect the integrity of data, production of which thus tends to be influenced by political forces and special interest groups.", "zh": "首先，国家统计部门往往没有保证数据完整性的自主权，导致数据容易受到政治势力和特殊利益集团的左右。", "index": 8398}
{"en": "Poorly designed policies also undermine the accuracy of data.", "zh": "设计不当的政策也妨碍了数据的准确性。", "index": 8399}
{"en": "For example, governments and donors sometimes tie funding to self-reported measures, which creates incentives for recipients to over-report key data like vaccination or school-enrollment rates.", "zh": "比如，政府和出资方有时让资金与自我报告措施挂钩，这就给受助者造成了夸大关键数据（如疫苗接种率和入学率）的激励。", "index": 8400}
{"en": "Without effective oversight, these well-intentioned efforts to reward progress can go awry.", "zh": "没有有效监督，这些本意良好的奖励进步计划有可能适得其反。", "index": 8401}
{"en": "Despite these failings, national governments and international donors continue to devote far too few resources to ensuring the collection of adequate data.", "zh": "尽管存在这些弊端，但国家政府和国际出资者用于确保收集足够数据的投入仍然太少。", "index": 8402}
{"en": "Only 2% of official development aid is earmarked for improving the quality of statistics – an amount wholly insufficient to assess accurately the impact of the other 98% of aid.", "zh": "只有2%的官方发展援助被用于改善数据质量 — — 这一数字完全不足以准确评估其他98%的援助所产生的效果。", "index": 8403}
{"en": "And governments’ dependency on donors to fund and gather their core statistics is unsustainable.", "zh": "而政府依赖出资者供资和收集核心统计数据的做法也是不可持续的。", "index": 8404}
{"en": "In fact, stronger national statistical systems are the first step toward improving the accuracy, timeliness, and availability of the data that are essential to calculating almost any major economic or social-welfare indicator.", "zh": "事实上，加强国家统计数据体系是改善数据准确率、及时性和易得性的第一步。 对于计算几乎每一个重要经济和社会福利指标，数据的准确率、及时性和易得性都是至关重要的。", "index": 8405}
{"en": "These include statistics on births and deaths; growth and poverty; tax and trade; health, education, and safety; and land and the environment.", "zh": "这些统计数据包括出生和死亡数据、增长和贫困数据、税收和贸易数据、卫生、教育和安全数据，以及土地和环境数据等。", "index": 8406}
{"en": "Developing such systems is an ambitious but achievable goal.", "zh": "发展这样的制度是远大但可实现的目标。", "index": 8407}
{"en": "All that is needed is a willingness to experiment with new approaches to collecting, using, and sharing data.", "zh": "所需要的只是实验新方法以收集、使用和共享数据的意愿。", "index": 8408}
{"en": "This is where the public comes in.", "zh": "公众可以在这方面起作用。", "index": 8409}
{"en": "If private firms, media, and civil-society organizations identify specific problems and call publicly for change, their governments will feel pressure to take the steps needed to produce accurate, unbiased data – for example, by enhancing the autonomy of national statistical offices or providing sufficient funds to hire more qualified personnel.", "zh": "如果私人企业、媒体和公民社会组织认识到具体问题并公开呼呼变革，政府就会感到压力采取所需步骤产生准确、无偏的数据 — — 如通过加强国家统计部门的自治权或拿出足够资金聘请资质更好的人手。", "index": 8410}
{"en": "While it may be tempting to bypass government and hope for an easy technology-based solution, sustainable, credible progress will be difficult without public-sector involvement.", "zh": "绕过政府、寄希望于简单的基于技术的解决方案或许很有诱惑力，但若无公共部门参与，很难产生持续而可信的进展。", "index": 8411}
{"en": "The recognition by governments and external donors of the need for more – and more efficient – funding, particularly to national statistical systems, will be integral to such a shift.", "zh": "政府和外部出资者认识到增加资金规模和效率的必要性（特别是国家统计制度问题）将有利于这一转变。", "index": 8412}
{"en": "Establishing stronger incentives for agencies to produce good data – that is, data that are accurate, timely, relevant, and readily available – would also help, with clearly delineated metrics defining what qualifies as “good.”", "zh": "为有关部门提供产生优质数据（即更准确、及时、相关并且可随时检索的数据）的更强的激励也大有裨益，但要明确定义衡量“优质”的指标。", "index": 8413}
{"en": "In fact, tying progress on those metrics to funding via pay-for-performance agreements could improve development outcomes considerably.", "zh": "事实上，用指标衡量进步，并采取按表现出资的协议可以大量改善开发成果。", "index": 8414}
{"en": "One concrete strategy to achieve these goals would be to create a country-donor compact for better data.", "zh": "一个实现这些目标的具体战略是订立关于改善数据的国家-出资者契约。", "index": 8415}
{"en": "Such a compact would enable governments and donors to express their shared intention to build a national statistics system over a period of several years, with clear and verifiable milestones.", "zh": "这一契约能让政府和出资者明确在几年的时间里建立国家统计制度的共同意愿，并定义明确可证的里程碑。", "index": 8416}
{"en": "It would also provide a country-specific framework for innovation on funding mechanisms and the engagement of civil society and the private sector, while mobilizing new technologies for data collection and dissemination.", "zh": "这样还能提供因国而异的融资机制创新框架以及公民社会和私人部门参与框架，同时动员数据收集和传播的新技术。", "index": 8417}
{"en": "In short, a data compact would help to mobilize and focus domestic and donor funding to achieve national statistical priorities.", "zh": "简言之，数据契约有助于动员和集中国内和出资者资金实现国家统计数据的当务之急。", "index": 8418}
{"en": "Data are the currency of performance, accountability, and credibility in the global economy, and improvements in data have been linked to better governance and higher levels of private investment.", "zh": "数据是全球经济绩效、问责和信誉的通货，改善数据与改善治理和增加私人投资息息相关。", "index": 8419}
{"en": "That is just what Africa needs to support a new decade of growth and development.", "zh": "非洲想要支持增长和发展的新十年，需要的正是改善数据。", "index": 8420}
{"en": "The Experts’ Advantage", "zh": "专家优势", "index": 8421}
{"en": "LONDON – Nearly everyone who sits on Google’s board of directors has at least one computer science or engineering degree or doctorate.", "zh": "伦敦 — — 谷歌董事会每位董事几乎都握有至少一个计算机科学或工程学位，或者拥有博士学位。", "index": 8422}
{"en": "There are two university presidents and eminent scholars – Stanford University’s John Hennessy and former Princeton University President Shirley Tilghman – and several members of the National Academy of Engineering and other illustrious organizations.", "zh": "其中有斯坦福的约翰·轩尼诗及前普林斯顿的雪莉·蒂尔曼两位大学校长兼知名学者 — — 还有美国国家工程学院和其他著名机构的几位院士。", "index": 8423}
{"en": "For Google, it pays to have technical expertise at the top.", "zh": "对谷歌而言，技术专家坐镇高层自有其好处。", "index": 8424}
{"en": "But Google is an unusual corporate giant in promoting those with scientific prowess to the top of the management ladder.", "zh": "但谷歌在提拔具有科技实力的高管方面却称得起是非同寻常的企业巨头。", "index": 8425}
{"en": "Beyond Silicon Valley, few senior corporate executives boast technical expertise in the products that their companies produce.", "zh": "在硅谷以外，鲜有企业高管掌握本企业产品领域的技术专长。", "index": 8426}
{"en": "American boardrooms are filled with MBAs, especially from Harvard, while firms in the rest of the developed world (with the possible exception of Germany) seem to prefer professional managers over technical or scientific talent.", "zh": "美国董事会几乎成了以哈佛为首的MBA的天下，而其他发达国家（可能除德国以外）似乎相比科技人才更愿意聘用职业经理人。", "index": 8427}
{"en": "Nowadays, it seems as anomalous to have knowledge workers serve as professional leaders as it once did to have scientists in the boardroom.", "zh": "今天像以往那样让知识型员工任专业领导、让科学家进入董事会似乎已不太寻常。", "index": 8428}
{"en": "It was previously thought that leadership is less necessary in knowledge-intensive organizations, where experts were assumed to be superior because they were motivated by intellectual pleasure rather than such extrinsic motivations as profit growth and cost targets.", "zh": "人们曾认为知识密集型机构没有太大必要设置领导，因为人们曾普遍认为专家相对于利润增长和成本目标等外在动机更看重学术满足感是一种优势。", "index": 8429}
{"en": "This difference in attitude is evident in many areas of society, not least in hospitals in the United States and the United Kingdom, where knowledge-intensive medical practitioners operate separately from managers.", "zh": "这种观念上的差异在社会众多领域显而易见，尤其是在英美两国医院，掌握大量知识的执业医生与管理者分开工作。", "index": 8430}
{"en": "Hospitals used to be run by doctors; today, only 5% of US hospitals’ CEOs are medical doctors, and even fewer doctors run UK hospitals.", "zh": "医生曾经是医院的管理者，但今天只有5%的美国医院由医生出任首席执行官，而管理英国医院的医生则更是少之又少。", "index": 8431}
{"en": "“Medicine should be left to the doctors,” according to a common refrain, “and organizational leadership should be left to professional managers.”", "zh": "现代人常说“医学问题就留给医生去操心，而职业经理人则应当在组织中担任领导角色。 ”", "index": 8432}
{"en": "But this is a mistake.", "zh": "但这种理解是个误区。", "index": 8433}
{"en": "Research shows that higher-performing US hospitals are likely to be led by doctors with outstanding research reputations, not by management professionals.", "zh": "研究表明高效的美国医院由科研声誉卓著的医生管理，而不���专门管理人员的可能性更高。", "index": 8434}
{"en": "The evidence also suggests that hospitals perform better, and have lower death rates, when more of their managers up to board level are clinically trained.", "zh": "此外还有证据表明如果董事会管理者接受过临床培训，那么医院总体业绩更好、死亡率也更低。", "index": 8435}
{"en": "We see similar findings in other fields.", "zh": "其他领域的发现也十分类似。", "index": 8436}
{"en": "My research shows that the world’s best universities, for example, are likely to be led by exceptional scholars whose performance continues to improve over time.", "zh": "比方说，我所做的研究表明全世界最好的大学可能是由出色的学者领导，而他们的绩效往往随着时间的推移而不断提高。", "index": 8437}
{"en": "Departmental-level analysis supports this.", "zh": "部门一级的分析数据也支持这种观点。", "index": 8438}
{"en": "A university economics department, for example, tends to perform better the more widely its head’s own research is cited.", "zh": "打个比方，如果某大学经济系主任的研究成果被广泛引用，那么该系的绩效相应也会更为出色。", "index": 8439}
{"en": "With experts in charge, it may not always look like there is an effective reporting structure in place.", "zh": "专家管理时并不总需要有效的报告体制。", "index": 8440}
{"en": "But, as the academic saying goes: just because you cannot herd cats, does not mean there is not a feline hierarchy.", "zh": "但就像学术界一句俗语所说：虽然猫科动物很少成群活动，但并不等于不存在等级结构。", "index": 8441}
{"en": "As with cats, academics operate a “relative hierarchy” in which the person in charge changes, depending on the setting.", "zh": "就像猫科动物一样，学者管理采取一种随着管理者和环境不断变化的“相对层次结构 ” 。", "index": 8442}
{"en": "Even in the world of sports, where success is not an obvious preparation for management, we see interesting linkages between experience and organizational performance.", "zh": "即使在运动成绩并非明显管理必备要素的体育界，我们也能在经验和组织绩效间看到某种有趣的联系。", "index": 8443}
{"en": "The very best NBA basketball players often make top coaches, while former Formula 1 champion drivers are associated with great team performance.", "zh": "最优秀的NBA篮球运动员往往能够成为顶级教练，而前一级方程式冠军车手执教的车队大都也表现出色。", "index": 8444}
{"en": "Of the 92 soccer clubs in the English football league, club managers played an average of 16 years in senior clubs.", "zh": "92家英格兰足球联赛俱乐部经理在高级俱乐部的平均服役年限为16年。", "index": 8445}
{"en": "Alex Ferguson, arguably Britain’s best manager, scored an average of one goal every two games in his professional career.", "zh": "弗格森也许是全英国最好的足球经理，他在职业生涯中每两场比赛打入一个球。", "index": 8446}
{"en": "But where the pattern does occur, especially in the business world, we should take note.", "zh": "但我们对以商界为代表的模式适用领域应当多加关注。", "index": 8447}
{"en": "The senior partner of any professional services firm is likely to have been a top performer during a long career with the firm.", "zh": "任何专业服务公司的高级合伙人很可能在其漫长的职业生涯中一直是该公司顶尖的执行者。", "index": 8448}
{"en": "This might be because experts and professionals in knowledge-intensive organizations prefer a boss who has excelled in their field.", "zh": "这或许是因为专家和知识密集型组织的专业人士更愿意由在本领域取得过出类拔萃成绩的老板来领导自己的工作。", "index": 8449}
{"en": "The leader’s credibility is vital: if she sets high standards, it seems only right that she should have matched or exceeded them herself.", "zh": "领导者的信誉至关重要：如果她制定高标准，那么这个标准她自己应该达到或者超过。", "index": 8450}
{"en": "In short, she must lead by example.", "zh": "总之，她必须能够以身作则。", "index": 8451}
{"en": "This sort of leadership arrangement creates a virtuous circle.", "zh": "这种领导机制的循环是良性的。", "index": 8452}
{"en": "A leader with prior experience knows how her subordinates feel, how to motivate them, and how to create the right working environment.", "zh": "有过职业经历的领导了解下属的感受、懂得如何激励下属，以及如何创造良好的工作环境。", "index": 8453}
{"en": "She probably makes better hiring decisions, too – after all, the best scientist or physician is more likely than a professional manager to know which researchers or doctors have the greatest potential.", "zh": "她所做的聘用决定或许也更加合理 — — 最出色的科学家或医生比职业经理人更有可能了解哪些研究员或者医生的潜力最大。", "index": 8454}
{"en": "The problem, however, is not simply that today’s leaders lack technical knowledge; it is that experts are often reluctant to lead.", "zh": "但问题并不是今天的领导人缺乏技术知识那样简单；事实是专家往往不愿意承担领导工作。", "index": 8455}
{"en": "But that can change.", "zh": "但这种情况可以改变。", "index": 8456}
{"en": "By communicating the importance of management and leadership early in a specialist’s career, and by offering tailored, digestible, and jargon-free training, we could bridge the gap.", "zh": "如果在专家职业生涯的早期向其宣传管理和领导工作的重要性并提供专门定制、易于消化且没有专业术语的培训，我们可以弥补这条鸿沟。", "index": 8457}
{"en": "Many medical schools are already considering including management education as part of the curriculum.", "zh": "很多医学院已经在考虑把管理教育纳入课程之中。", "index": 8458}
{"en": "The trick is to get experts, who are trained to go ever deeper into their specialization, to step back and view the big picture.", "zh": "关键是让一向精于钻研专业领域的专家退后一步，建立大局观。", "index": 8459}
{"en": "With the right preparation, there is no reason why a leader cannot specialize and manage.", "zh": "只要正确引导，领导人可以在专业和管理领域同样精通。", "index": 8460}
{"en": "The results could be remarkable.", "zh": "结果可能会令人赞叹。", "index": 8461}
{"en": "Think of how governments run by scientists with management skills might respond to climate change.", "zh": "想想由具有管理技能的科学家组成的政府可能会怎样应对气候变化。", "index": 8462}
{"en": "Top minds should be put to top use.", "zh": "顶级人才本来就应当被委以重任。", "index": 8463}
{"en": "A Mania for Diagnosing Bipolar Disorder", "zh": "双相障碍诊断乱象", "index": 8464}
{"en": "PROVIDENCE, RI – During the past few years, many experts have suggested that bipolar disorder – a serious illness resulting in significant psychosocial morbidity and excess mortality – is under-recognized, particularly in patients with major depression.", "zh": "普洛韦登斯，罗得岛 – 在过去的几年里，许多专家都认为双相障碍（bipolar disorder ） - - 一种会造成重度社会心理病态和高死亡率的严重疾病—没有得到足够的重视，特别在患有严重抑郁症的病人中更是如此。", "index": 8465}
{"en": "Even patients who are diagnosed with bipolar disorder often wait more than 10 years after initially seeking treatment for the correct diagnosis to be made.", "zh": "即便是被诊断为双相障碍的病人，从最初的求诊到最后的确诊也往往会经历十多年的时间。", "index": 8466}
{"en": "The clinical implications of the failure to recognize bipolar disorder in depressed patients include the under-prescription of mood-stabilizing medications, and an increased risk of rapid “cycling” – swings between manic and depressive phases.", "zh": "对抑郁症患者双相障碍的认识不够在临床上的反映包括情绪稳定药物的使用不足和快速“循环 ” （ 即在狂躁与抑郁阶段之间摇摆）风险的增加。", "index": 8467}
{"en": "But, perhaps as a consequence of concerted efforts to improve the recognition of bipolar disorder, during the past few years we have observed the emergence of an opposite phenomenon – over-diagnosis.", "zh": "然而，同心协力提升对双相障碍的认识的努力很可能产生了反作用。 在过去几年里我们观察到了另一种极端的现象—过度诊断。", "index": 8468}
{"en": "In my own practice, my colleagues and I have encountered patients who reported that they were previously diagnosed with bipolar disorder, despite lacking a history of manic or hypomanic episodes.", "zh": "在我自己的从医经历中，我和同事们碰到过一些病人反映说他们虽然没有过狂躁或轻度狂躁的情况，但也曾被诊断为双相障碍。", "index": 8469}
{"en": "To be sure, we have also seen patients seeking treatment for depression who really did have bipolar disorder.", "zh": "当然，我们也的确看到有些因抑郁求诊的病人确实患有双相障碍。", "index": 8470}
{"en": "However, there seemed to be more over-diagnosis than under-diagnosis.", "zh": "然而，过度诊断的情况似乎比诊断不足的情况多。", "index": 8471}
{"en": "We therefore conducted a study to examine empirically how often bipolar disorder might be over- and under-diagnosed.", "zh": "于是我们便展开了一项研究，从经验的层面来考察双相障碍被过度诊断和诊断不足的程度。", "index": 8472}
{"en": "Seven hundred psychiatric outpatients were interviewed with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID) and completed a self-administered questionnaire that asked whether they had been previously diagnosed by a health-care professional with bipolar or manic-depressive disorder.", "zh": "我们用《美国精神障碍诊断与统计手册 》 （ 第4版）的结构化临床问卷 （即人格障碍诊断问卷SCID）对七百名精神病科的门诊病人进行了访问并让他们亲自填写了问卷，其内容是关于他们是否之前曾被医疗专业人员诊断为双相或狂躁—抑郁障碍。", "index": 8473}
{"en": "Family history information was obtained from the patient regarding their immediate relatives.", "zh": "我们还从病人处获得了关于其近亲的家庭病史的信息。", "index": 8474}
{"en": "Slightly more than 20% (145 patients) in our sample reported that they had been previously diagnosed as having bipolar disorder, significantly higher than the 12.9% rate based on the SCID.", "zh": "抽样病患中有20%多一点的人（145粒）报告之前曾被诊断为患有双相障碍，这比基于SCID的12.9%的诊断率要高得多。", "index": 8475}
{"en": "Less than half of those who reported that they had been previously diagnosed with bipolar disorder were diagnosed with bipolar disorder based on the SCID.", "zh": "报告之前曾被诊断为患有双相障碍的人之中根据SCID被确诊为双相障碍的不到一半。", "index": 8476}
{"en": "Patients with SCID-diagnosed bipolar disorder had a significantly higher risk of bipolar disorder in their immediate family members than patients who self-reported a previous diagnosis of bipolar disorder that was not confirmed by the SCID.", "zh": "通过此方法确诊的双相障碍患者与自己报告曾被诊断为双相障碍但却没有被SCID确诊的人相比较，前者的直系亲属罹患双相障碍的风险要比后者的直系亲属高出许多。", "index": 8477}
{"en": "Patients who self-reported a previous diagnosis of bipolar disorder that was not confirmed by the SCID did not have a significantly higher risk for bipolar disorder than the patients who were negative for bipolar disorder by self-report and the SCID.", "zh": "后者患双相障碍的风险也并不比自我报告和通过SCID诊断未患双相障碍的病人高多少。", "index": 8478}
{"en": "Our findings, validated by family history, thus suggest that bipolar disorder was over-diagnosed.", "zh": "我们的研究发现经过家族病史的确认，从而显示出双相障碍被过度诊断的情况。", "index": 8479}
{"en": "Any study seeking to determine whether a psychiatric disorder is over-diagnosed will find that some patients with the condition do not have it upon re-interview.", "zh": "任何试图判断某种精神障碍是否被过度诊断的研究都会发现某种病情在病人再次问诊时却没了踪影。", "index": 8480}
{"en": "Such is the nature of the imperfect reliability of psychiatric diagnosis.", "zh": "这就是精神病学诊断的可靠性具有缺陷的特点。", "index": 8481}
{"en": "The question, then, is not whether some patients previously given a diagnosis do not seem to have it upon re-interview, but rather how many.", "zh": "因此，真正的问题就不在于是否有的曾被确诊病人再次求诊时似乎全然无恙，而是这样的病人有多少。", "index": 8482}
{"en": "How high the percentage should be before claiming over-diagnosis is a significant problem and a value judgment.", "zh": "诊断的百分比应该达到多高才能说过度诊断是个严重的问题—这是个价值判断。", "index": 8483}
{"en": "But we think that an over-diagnosis rate of more than 50% crosses the clinical significance threshold.", "zh": "但我们认为高于50%的过度诊断率超过了临床意义的极限。", "index": 8484}
{"en": "Over-diagnosis of bipolar disorder has costs.", "zh": "双相障碍的过度诊断会造成不良后果。", "index": 8485}
{"en": "Mood stabilizers are the treatment of choice, and, depending on the medication, they can produce potentially significant health complications affecting renal, endocrine, hepatic, immunologic, or metabolic function.", "zh": "情绪稳定药物是一种治疗的选择。 根据药物的不同，它们可能造成严重的并发症，影响肾脏、内分泌、肝脏、免疫系统或代谢功能。", "index": 8486}
{"en": "Thus, over-diagnosing bipolar disorder can unnecessarily expose patients to serious side-effects of medication.", "zh": "因此，双相障碍的过度诊断可能让病人不必要地承受严重的药物副作用。", "index": 8487}
{"en": "The impact of marketing efforts by pharmaceutical companies and publicity probably plays a role in the emerging tendency to over-diagnose bipolar disorder.", "zh": "制药公司的营销和宣传的影响很可能也对双相障碍的过度诊断的趋势起到了推波助澜的作用。", "index": 8488}
{"en": "Direct-to-consumer advertisements that refer individuals to screening questionnaires can result in patients suggesting to their doctors that they have bipolar disorder.", "zh": "那些让个人使用筛查问卷的直接以消费者为对象的广告可能使病人在面对医生时暗示自己患了双相障碍。", "index": 8489}
{"en": "We have seen evidence of this in our practice.", "zh": "我们在自身的经历中也见到过这样的例子。", "index": 8490}
{"en": "This does not necessarily reflect a problem with the performance of a screening questionnaire, but rather how these scales are used.", "zh": "这并不一定反映了筛查问卷本身有效性的问题，而是反映了这些标准如何被使用的问题。", "index": 8491}
{"en": "Screening questionnaires maximize sensitivity, at a cost of false positives, because it is presumed that they are followed by expert clinical evaluation.", "zh": "筛查问卷以假阳性为代价使敏感度最大化，因为其假设前提是这些结果随后会被专家进行临床评估。", "index": 8492}
{"en": "But insufficient diagnostic rigor can result in over-diagnosis.", "zh": "但若诊断过程不够严格就可能造成过度诊断。", "index": 8493}
{"en": "Clinicians are inclined to diagnose disorders that they feel more comfortable treating.", "zh": "临床医生们倾向于诊断那些他们治疗起来比较拿手的（精神）障碍。", "index": 8494}
{"en": "We believe that the increased availability of medications that have been approved for the treatment of bipolar disorder might be influencing clinicians who are unsure whether or not a patient has bipolar disorder or borderline personality disorder to err on the side of diagnosing the disorder that is responsive to medication.", "zh": "我们相信被获准用于治疗双相障碍的药物越来越多可能会影响一部分临床医生。 他们不能判定一个病人是患了双相障碍还是边缘人格障碍就会错误地将病人诊断为对药物有反应的某种障碍。", "index": 8495}
{"en": "This bias is reinforced by the marketing message of pharmaceutical companies to physicians, which has emphasized research on delayed diagnosis and under-recognition of bipolar disorder, possibly sensitizing clinicians accordingly.", "zh": "这种倾向被制药公司发送给医师们的营销信息强化了。 这些信息强调对双相障碍诊断延误和认识不足的研究，就有可能使医师们变得敏感。", "index": 8496}
{"en": "The campaign against under-recognition has probably resulted in some anxious, agitated, and/or irritable depressed patients who complain of insomnia and “racing thoughts” being misdiagnosed with bipolar disorder.", "zh": "针对认识不足的行动很可能造成一些抑郁病人被误诊为双相障碍。 这些病人往往焦虑、不安和/或易怒，并抱怨有失眠和“思绪澎湃”的症状。", "index": 8497}
{"en": "The results of our study are consistent with prior studies suggesting possible problems with the diagnosis of bipolar disorder.", "zh": "我们的研究成果和此前针对双相障碍诊断中可能存在的问题的研究是一致的。", "index": 8498}
{"en": "With the greater number of medications approved for the treatment of bipolar disorder, along with multiple reports cautioning clinicians against under-diagnosis, it appears that over-diagnosis has become a greater problem than under-diagnosis.", "zh": "随着更多的药物被允许用于治疗双相障碍以及众多警告医生们防范诊断不足的报告的出台，似乎过度诊断已经成为了一个比诊断不足更大的问题。", "index": 8499}
{"en": "Both can have negative consequences.", "zh": "而两者都会造成不良的后果。", "index": 8500}
{"en": "While there is still some uncertainty as to the best assessment approach, we recommend that clinicians use a standardized, validated method.", "zh": "鉴于在最佳评估方法上还有一些不确定性，我们推荐医生们采用标准化的、经过验证的方法。", "index": 8501}
{"en": "When Tweets Trump Diplomacy", "zh": "当Tweet文压倒外交", "index": 8502}
{"en": "NEW DELHI – Diplomacy often witnesses unusual spats.", "zh": "新德里—外交经常预见不同寻常的争吵。", "index": 8503}
{"en": "There was the Pig and Potato War of 1859, the Affair of the Dancing Lamas in 1924, and the Bogotá Bracelet incident of 1970, to name just a few.", "zh": "1859年有猪和土豆战争（Pig and Potato War ） ， 1924年有跳舞的喇嘛事件（Affair of the Dancing Lamas ） ， 1970年有波哥大手镯（Bogotá Bracelet）事故，诸如此类。", "index": 8504}
{"en": "But few were more surprising than the just-concluded Episode of the Offensive Doormats.", "zh": "但很少有比刚刚结束的冒犯性门垫事件（Episode of the Offensive Doormats）更加令人震惊的。", "index": 8505}
{"en": "The e-commerce giant Amazon – which has lately been cultivating India as the next frontier of its global expansion, reflected in plans to invest $5 billion in the country – was recently startled by a series of intemperate tweets from Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.", "zh": "电子商务巨头亚马逊公司 — — 它刚刚开始培育印度市场，将此作为其全球扩张的下一条阵线，计划在印度投资50亿美元 — — 最近被印度外交部长苏什马·斯瓦拉伊（Sushma Swaraj）的一系列有欠妥当的tweet吓了一跳。", "index": 8506}
{"en": "In just a few 140-character messages, Swaraj denounced the company and threatened to cancel its employees’ visas and refuse visas to its executives in the future.", "zh": "斯瓦拉伊谴责亚马逊公司，并威胁要吊销其员工的签证，拒绝日后为其高管签发签证。", "index": 8507}
{"en": "What provoked Swaraj’s outburst was a Twitter user’s complaint to her that the Amazon Canada website offered for sale doormats depicting the Indian flag.", "zh": "让斯瓦拉伊突然爆发的是一位Twitter用户像她投诉亚马逊加拿大网站贩卖印度国旗图案的门垫。", "index": 8508}
{"en": "The notion that dirty shoes would be wiped on a representation of the Indian flag had outraged the tweeter, Atul Bhobe, who contacted – and found an advocate in – Swaraj.", "zh": "印度国旗被肮脏的鞋子踩踏，这样的情景让这位名叫阿图尔·鲍比（Atul Bhobe）的Twitter用户怒不可遏，与撒瓦拉伊取得了联系，并得到后者的支持。", "index": 8509}
{"en": "Amazon was swift to respond.", "zh": "亚马逊很快就做出了反应。", "index": 8510}
{"en": "After clarifying that the offending doormats were technically being offered by a third-party supplier, not Amazon itself, the company removed them from the Amazon Canada website and “implemented measures to ensure that these products could not be sold on any of our other marketplaces or websites.”", "zh": "它先是澄清，技术上冒犯性门垫系由第三方供营商而提供而非亚马逊自营，随后将该款门垫从亚马逊加拿大网站上下架并“采取措施确保这类产品不会再我们其他任何市场或网站上销售。", "index": 8511}
{"en": "Amazon’s India country manager offered an apology to Swaraj for “hurting Indian sensibilities” and, recalling the company’s $5 billion investment commitment, reiterated Amazon’s dedication to the country.", "zh": "”亚马逊印度经理向撒瓦拉伊致歉，表示“伤害了印度人民的感情 ” ， 重申亚马逊公司将向印度投资50亿美元，非常重视印度市场。", "index": 8512}
{"en": "Less than 24 hours after the doormat crisis erupted, the matter was defused.", "zh": "门垫危机爆发不到24小时，事件便已经解决。", "index": 8513}
{"en": "But the episode raises a number of broader issues that won’t disappear so quickly.", "zh": "但此事所引起的诸多更广泛的问题不会这么快消退。", "index": 8514}
{"en": "The first issue is Swaraj’s use of Twitter.", "zh": "第一个问题是撒瓦拉伊对Twitter的使用。", "index": 8515}
{"en": "Swaraj stands out among her peers in India for her trigger-happy approach to tweeting (though her use of the platform is still dwarfed by that of US President-elect Donald Trump, who often uses Twitter as a bully pulpit).", "zh": "撒瓦拉伊以喜欢发tweet在同僚中独树一帜（尽管与美国当选总统唐纳德·特朗普比起来撒瓦拉伊仍只是小巫见大巫，特朗普简直把Twitter当传旨太监用 ） 。", "index": 8516}
{"en": "I certainly do not oppose the use of Twitter by public officials.", "zh": "我当然不反对公职官员使用Twitter。", "index": 8517}
{"en": "On the contrary, I view the growing comfort of government ministers with social media as a matter for celebration.", "zh": "相反，我认为越来越多的政府部长习惯于社交媒体可喜可贺。", "index": 8518}
{"en": "It is a welcome change from my time as Minister of State for External Affairs, under the previous government, when official computers were barred from accessing social media, and the tweets I issued from my own devices would often become the stuff of needless controversy.", "zh": "这是个值得欢迎的变化，我在前任政府中担任外交部长的时候，官员的电脑是屏蔽社交媒体的，我用私人设备所发的tweet文常常导致毫无必要的争议。", "index": 8519}
{"en": "But Swaraj may well be going too far, responding to every individual case of a lost passport or delayed visa tweeted to her – an approach that has earned her the not-entirely-flattering sobriquet of “India’s Minister for Consular Affairs.”", "zh": "但撒瓦拉伊或许有些过头了，连丢失护照或签证延期这样的私事tweet她也会回应 — — 这样的做法为她赢得了一个不太体面的外号 ： “ 印度总领事 ” 。", "index": 8520}
{"en": "That a foreign minister would respond to a Twitter complaint on such trivial matters, some would argue, seems to indicate that she lacks more important things to do.", "zh": "一些人认为，外交部长回应投诉琐事的tweet文表明她没有更重要的事情可做。", "index": 8521}
{"en": "(The suggestion undoubtedly reflects the fact that, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, substantive foreign policy is conducted largely by him and his office, rather than by the External Affairs Ministry that Swaraj leads.)", "zh": "（这一观点毫无疑问反映了一个事实：在总理莫迪领导下，实质性外交政策主要由他和他的幕僚完成，而不是由撒瓦拉伊领导的外交部负责。 ）", "index": 8522}
{"en": "But the problem extends beyond Swaraj’s communication with ordinary citizens.", "zh": "但问题不仅在于撒瓦拉伊与普通公民的交流。", "index": 8523}
{"en": "In the recent doormat drama, she also used Twitter to issue instructions to her own diplomats, tweeting at the Indian High Commission in Canada to deal with the “unacceptable” matter, by taking it up with Amazon “at the highest level.”", "zh": "在最近的门垫闹剧中，她还用Twitter向手下外交官发布指示，在加拿大印度高级专员公署（High Commission）发tweet文处理这个“不可接受”的问题，把它提高到亚马逊“最高层 ” 。", "index": 8524}
{"en": "Such a move is unprecedented, and not particularly welcome.", "zh": "这样的做法可谓前无古人，也不是很受欢迎。", "index": 8525}
{"en": "Social media is no substitute for a diplomatic cable.", "zh": "社交媒体不是外交专线的替代品。", "index": 8526}
{"en": "Also less than diplomatic was the language Swaraj used in her warning to the company.", "zh": "同样不够“外交”的还有撒瓦拉伊警告亚马逊公司的用词。", "index": 8527}
{"en": "“Amazon must tender unconditional apology,” she tweeted.", "zh": "“亚马逊必须无条件道歉 ” ， 她发tweet文说。", "index": 8528}
{"en": "“They must withdraw all products insulting our national flag immediately.", "zh": "“他们必须立刻下架有辱我国国旗的产品。", "index": 8529}
{"en": "If this is not done forthwith, we will not grant Indian Visa to any Amazon official. We will also rescind the Visas issued earlier.”", "zh": "如果不马上落实，我们将不会向任何亚马逊官员签发印度签证，并废除此前发出的签证。", "index": 8530}
{"en": "A profession famed for summoning ambassadors for a discreet dressing-down has been reduced to upbraiding companies on Twitter.", "zh": "”外交部长的责任应该是传召大使进行谨慎的斥责，现在却堕落到在Twitter上抨击公司。", "index": 8531}
{"en": "The final issue that the doormat incident brought to the fore is Indians’ tendency to take offense at the slightest affront – a tendency that is now being elevated, by the thumbs of a top minister, to the level of official policy.", "zh": "门垫事故所突出的最后一个问题是印度不容忍最轻微的冒犯的倾向 — — 如今这一倾向通过一位高级部长的手指头升级到官方政策高度。", "index": 8532}
{"en": "Of course, disrespect for the national flag is derided in most countries, and has been a criminal offense in India since 1971, with the adoption of the Prevention of Insults to National Honor Act, which threatens whoever “mutilates, defaces, disfigures, destroys, tramples upon, or otherwise shows disrespect to” the Indian flag with imprisonment.", "zh": "当然，不尊重国旗在大部分国家都是一件大事，印度更是自1971年引入防止冒犯国家荣誉法（Prevention of Insults to National Honor Act ） ， 将此列为犯罪行为，任何人如果“切割、涂销、玷污、损毁、踩踏或表现出不尊重”印度国旗，都可以判处徒刑。", "index": 8533}
{"en": "But Indians have a particularly low threshold for what qualifies as disrespect.", "zh": "但印度人对什么构成不尊重的门槛很低。", "index": 8534}
{"en": "Whereas in other democracies, flags are used freely and harmlessly on t-shirts, boots, bikinis, and even underwear, in India, the majesty of the flag can, it seems, be tarnished by any tawdry manufacturer of gewgaws.", "zh": "在其他民主国家，国旗可以自由地印在衬衫、鞋子、胸罩甚至内裤上而不受惩罚，但在印度，任何艳俗的小玩意儿都是对庄严的国旗的玷污。", "index": 8535}
{"en": "And it’s not just the flag.", "zh": "并且不仅仅是国旗。", "index": 8536}
{"en": "Last year, Amazon enraged many Indians by offering doormats with pictures of Indian gods and goddesses, prompting the furious hashtag #BoycottAmazon.", "zh": "去年，亚马逊因为出售印有印度诸神的门垫而激怒了许多印度人，催生了愤怒的热门标签#BoycottAmazon（抵制亚马逊 ） 。", "index": 8537}
{"en": "Two years earlier, the company’s website had caused similar outrage by selling women’s leggings with images of Hindu gods.", "zh": "两年前，亚马逊网站因为出售印有印度教神形象的女士紧身裤而引起类似的众怒。", "index": 8538}
{"en": "So Amazon is no stranger to the anger of offended Indians.", "zh": "因此，亚马逊对于遭到冒犯的印度人的愤怒早已见怪不怪。", "index": 8539}
{"en": "But the company’s swift capitulation in the latest incident – which will surely not be the last – shows that the value of a gigantic market like India far outweighs that of any single product.", "zh": "但该公司在最近的事件 — — 显然这不会是最后一次 — — 中迅速“认怂”表明大如印度的市场的重要性远远大于某种商品。", "index": 8540}
{"en": "China has already proved that it can dictate terms to multinationals that covet its vast market.", "zh": "中国已经证明，它可以指定条件要求觊觎其巨大市场的跨国公司就范。", "index": 8541}
{"en": "India, it seems, will follow suit.", "zh": "印度似乎要效而仿之。", "index": 8542}
{"en": "But whoever has emerged as the winner of the doormat debacle – outraged Twitter users, perhaps – diplomacy has been the loser.", "zh": "但不论谁是门垫灾难的赢家 — — 也许是暴怒的Twitter用户 — — 外交都是输家。", "index": 8543}
{"en": "Ambivalent Arabia", "zh": "矛盾的沙特阿拉伯", "index": 8544}
{"en": "A democratic tide seems to be sweeping across the Arab world.", "zh": "一股民主浪潮正在席卷阿拉伯世界。", "index": 8545}
{"en": "Even the traditional Arab monarchies and Emirates are changing in its wake.", "zh": "即使是那些传统的阿拉伯君主国和酋长国也正循着这股浪潮发生着某种改变。", "index": 8546}
{"en": "Kuwait now allows women to vote, Qatar has embraced an ambitious reform program, Bahrain has shown great tolerance of mass demonstrations, and the U.A.E. is allowing something like a free press.", "zh": "科威特现在已经允许妇女参加投票，卡塔尔接受了一项艰巨的改革计划，巴林对群众示威游行表现出了极大的容忍，阿拉伯联合酋长国正允许通过某种新闻自由制度。", "index": 8547}
{"en": "But Saudi Arabia continues to be deeply wary of any sort of change, and thus remains a huge and seemingly immovable obstacle to region-wide reform.", "zh": "但是沙特阿拉伯却依然对任何一种改变谨慎提防，也因此成为了阿拉伯地区改革进程中一块巨大无比、看起来岿然不动的绊脚石。", "index": 8548}
{"en": "Although the Saudi ruling family, the al-Saud, is under enormous pressure to follow the example of its neighbors, internal resistance to doing so remains very strong.", "zh": "尽管沙特的统治家族 — — 邵德（al-Saud）家族，承受了要求他们学习邻国榜样的巨大压力，但是内部的反对力量依然很强。", "index": 8549}
{"en": "So the al-Saud have become Janus-faced: looking in one direction, the royal family encourages democratic reformers to speak out; looking in the opposite direction, it jails them when they do.", "zh": "因此，邵德家族变成了双面派：一方面，皇室家族鼓励民主改革者大胆直言，另一方面，当民主改革者这么做的时候，皇室就把他们打入大牢。", "index": 8550}
{"en": "On May 15, in a closed trial without legal representation for the accused, three leading reformers – Ali Al Dumaini, a well-known journalist and poet, and university professors Abdullah Al Hamid and Matruk al Falih – were condemned and sentenced to prison terms ranging from six to nine years.", "zh": "5月15日，在一场被告人无法合法抗辩的秘密审判中，三名改革领导人 — — 著名记者兼诗人Ali Al Dumaini，大学教授Abdullah Al Hamid 和 Matruk al Falih — — 被判有罪，分别被判入狱六至九年。", "index": 8551}
{"en": "Their crime was to call for a constitutional monarchy.", "zh": "他们的罪行是提倡鼓动宪法君主体制。", "index": 8552}
{"en": "The official verdict states that they threatened national unity, challenged those in authority, and incited public opinion against the state while using “foreign,” that is, Western, terminology.", "zh": "官方判决称，他们使用“外国的 ” ， 也就是“西方的”的术语，威胁国家统一，挑战国家主权，煽动民众反对国家。", "index": 8553}
{"en": "Not long after the September 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, these liberal reformers joined with 160 other professionals to write and sign a petition to Crown Prince Abdullah asking for reforms.", "zh": "2001年9月美国遭受恐怖袭击后不久，这些自由改革者们和其他160名专家一起在一份递交给皇储阿卜杜拉（Abdullah ） 、 要求改革的请愿书上签字。", "index": 8554}
{"en": "The petition called for the monarchy to work within constitutionally prescribed limits, and for an independent judiciary.", "zh": "这份请愿书要求君主政体在宪法规定的限度内工作，并且呼吁建立一个独立的司法体系。", "index": 8555}
{"en": "The reformers believe that such reforms are the only way for Saudi Arabia to survive the threat of violence, instability, and national fragmentation that is looming on its horizon.", "zh": "改革者们相信这样的改革是唯一能使沙特阿拉伯在暴力威胁、不稳定性和国家分裂等这些已经初露端倪的危机中得以生存的办法。", "index": 8556}
{"en": "Only a constitution, they argue, can restore much needed legitimacy to a political system that is widely perceived as deeply corrupt and inept.", "zh": "他们认为，只有宪法才能够恢复一个被普遍认为腐败无能的政治体系所需的合法性。", "index": 8557}
{"en": "Crown Prince Abdullah, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler in place of his incapacitated half-brother King Fahd, is keen to be seen as a champion of reform.", "zh": "代替其碌碌无能的同父异母的兄长国王法德（King Fahd ） 、 沙特阿拉伯实际意义上的真正统治者皇储阿卜杜拉，非常希望被看作一个改革的赢家。", "index": 8558}
{"en": "He received these proposals with a warm welcome in January 2003.", "zh": "2003年1月，他用一个热烈的欢迎仪式接受了这些提议。", "index": 8559}
{"en": "But his half-brother and more powerful rival, Prince Naif, the Minister of Interior, ordered the arrests, trial, and imprisonment of 13 reformers in March 2004.", "zh": "但是他同父异母的兄长以及更为强大的竞争对手 — — 内政大臣纳伊夫亲王（Prince Naif）在2004年3月下令逮捕、审判并拘禁了13名改革者。", "index": 8560}
{"en": "Crown Prince Abdullah offered not a peep of opposition, leaving the reform agenda that he initiated in a political netherworld.", "zh": "阿卜杜拉皇储没有提出一点儿反对意见，就把这场他发动的改革计划留在了政治地狱。", "index": 8561}
{"en": "In order to maintain absolutist power and to minimize public anger, the Saudi princes, led by Prince Naif, asked the reformers to sign an agreement that they would never again ask for reform.", "zh": "为了维持绝对权力并最大限度地降低公众的愤慨之情，沙特的亲王们在纳伊夫亲王的带领下，要求改革者们签署一项协议保证他们再也不会要求改革。", "index": 8562}
{"en": "Prince Naif bans the very word “reform” from public discourse, because it suggests that there is something wrong with the system; his preferred term is “development.”", "zh": "纳伊夫亲王在公共演讲中禁止使用“改革”一词，因为这个词暗示了体系中的问题；他更喜欢的词语是“发展 ” 。", "index": 8563}
{"en": "Of the thirteen reformers who were arrested, ten submitted to this demand, but the other three refused and have paid the price.", "zh": "在13名被逮捕的改革者中，有十个人向这个要求低头屈服了，但是剩余三人明确拒绝并为此付出代价。", "index": 8564}
{"en": "They remained in jail in Riyadh without legal representation until the final verdict.", "zh": "他们被关在Riyadh的监狱，在最后判决之前无法进行任何合法辩论。", "index": 8565}
{"en": "Those who submitted had their passports withdrawn, lost their jobs, and were forbidden to speak to the press.", "zh": "那些屈服的人被扣押了护照，失去了工作并被剥夺了对新闻媒体说话的权利。", "index": 8566}
{"en": "Under regional and international pressure, the Saudi ruling family has constructed a Potemkin village of reform while retaining absolute control over all political developments.", "zh": "在当地和国际压力下，沙特的统治家族建造了一个改革版的波特金村庄（Potemkin village ） ， 与此同时，将对所有政治发展的绝对控制权牢牢掌握在手中。", "index": 8567}
{"en": "Earlier this year, they staged partial, and tightly regulated municipal elections, with no independent opinion permitted to influence when and how the ballots were held.", "zh": "今年年初，他们在局部范围内举行了一场严格控制的地方选举，不允许任何独立观点就应当何时以及如何举行选举发表评论。", "index": 8568}
{"en": "These entire female population was excluded, and only one-quarter of the male population was eligible to vote.", "zh": "所有女性被排除在投票选举之外，并且只有四分之一的男性具有投票权。", "index": 8569}
{"en": "Inevitably, Wahhabi Islamists did best.", "zh": "毫无疑问，只有瓦哈比伊斯兰分子（Wahhabi Islamists）才会做得最好。", "index": 8570}
{"en": "The al-Saud face two threats: one from violent Islamists, and the other from liberal reformers.", "zh": "绍德家族现在面临两大威胁：一个来自崇尚暴力的伊斯兰分子，另一个来自自由改革者们。", "index": 8571}
{"en": "There is every indication that they fear the reformers far more.", "zh": "很明显，他们更惧怕改革者。", "index": 8572}
{"en": "Perhaps the princes believe that it is easier to kill “terrorist” criminals than to crush demands for social justice.", "zh": "也许亲王们认为，比起镇压要求社会正义的呼声，除去“恐怖主义”罪犯要容易得多。", "index": 8573}
{"en": "Indeed, killing violent Islamists and al-Qaeda affiliates is applauded by the international community, especially the United States, as success in the “war on terrorism.”", "zh": "事实上，消灭暴力的伊斯兰分子和基地组织分子会被当作反恐战争的胜利受到国际社会的嘉奖，尤其是美国。", "index": 8574}
{"en": "But as they hunt down and kill violent domestic extremists, they are quietly tightening the noose around all those who want moderate reform.", "zh": "但是当他们一路追寻并要除去国内的极端分子时，他们也悄悄地收紧了那些布在想要温和改革的人周围的套索。", "index": 8575}
{"en": "This repression of liberal reformers passes unnoticed in the wider world, with America’s silence particularly noticeable.", "zh": "这种对自由改革的镇压就这样伴随着美国尤为明显的沉默，在世界范围内悄无声息地通过了。", "index": 8576}
{"en": "This silence is vital to the princes, for what the al-Saud care about most is US support.", "zh": "这种沉默对亲王们至关重要，因为邵德家族最为在意的正是美国的支持。", "index": 8577}
{"en": "As things stand in Saudi Arabia, the US administration has no credible ally for change outside of the existing regime.", "zh": "在沙特阿拉伯当前的情形下，除了当前的政权，美国政府没有其他可信任的同盟。", "index": 8578}
{"en": "So, unlike in Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgizstan, and Lebanon, it does nothing to encourage popular opposition.", "zh": "因此，与乌克兰、格鲁吉亚、吉尔吉斯和黎巴嫩不同，美国支持强烈反对派毫无意义。", "index": 8579}
{"en": "As long as the Saudi regime meets America’s oil needs and fights Islamist radicals, it will continue to receive US support and silence – and hence its tacit consent.", "zh": "只要沙特���权能够满足美国的石油需求并对抗伊斯兰激进分子，它将会继续收到美国的支持和沉默 — — 以及它心照不宣的默许。", "index": 8580}
{"en": "But turning a blind eye is shortsighted, for America and for the Saudis.", "zh": "但是，对美国和沙特阿拉伯来说，视而不见并非长久之计。", "index": 8581}
{"en": "Those who make peaceful revolutions impossible make violent revolutions inevitable.", "zh": "那些抹杀和平革命可能性的人将会使暴力革命在所难免。", "index": 8582}
{"en": "The liberal reformers who have been jailed could have paved the way for a peaceful transition to a reformed Saudi Arabia.", "zh": "那些被囚禁的自由改革者们可能已经为通向一个改革一新的沙特阿拉伯的和平演变铺平了道路。", "index": 8583}
{"en": "By jailing them, the regime has made it clear that violence is the only avenue open to those seeking change.", "zh": "当局通过囚禁这些人已经明确表明，暴力是那些寻求改变者唯一可用的途径。", "index": 8584}
{"en": "Algeria’s Dying Dictatorship", "zh": "行将就木的阿尔及利亚独裁", "index": 8585}
{"en": "ALGIERS – Despite his failing health, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika won a fourth term last month, with 81% of the vote – or so the regime claimed.", "zh": "阿尔及尔—尽管健康每况愈下，阿尔及利亚总统阿卜杜拉齐兹·波特弗利卡（Abdelaziz Bouteflika）仍在本月第四次当选总统，支持率高达81 % — —至少他的政府是这么宣布的。", "index": 8586}
{"en": "In fact, far from signaling growing political stability, the 77-year-old incumbent’s sham victory underscores just how few options Algerians have to effect change from within the system.", "zh": "事实上，这位77岁的现任总统的假胜利绝非政治日益稳定的信号，而是反映了阿尔及利亚人无法从体制内影响变局。", "index": 8587}
{"en": "Under Bouteflika’s leadership, Algeria’s government has failed to address the country’s most pressing economic and social challenges.", "zh": "在波特弗利卡的领导下，阿尔及利亚政府无法解决该国最紧迫的经济和社会挑战。", "index": 8588}
{"en": "And there is no reason to expect this to change.", "zh": "也看不到可以发生变化的信号。", "index": 8589}
{"en": "Since suffering a stroke last year, Bouteflika has barely appeared in public, whether to campaign ahead of the vote or to acknowledge his victory after it.", "zh": "自去年中风以来，波特弗利卡就很少出现在公众面前，甚至在再次当选后都没有现身宣布自己的胜利。", "index": 8590}
{"en": "As a result, the regime is finding it increasingly difficult to claim, as it has for the last 15 years, that Bouteflika’s leadership represents civilian control over the military.", "zh": "结果，他的政权越来越难以如过去15年那样宣布波特弗利卡的领导是文治而不是武治。", "index": 8591}
{"en": "So it has devised a new strategy, aimed at creating a sense of transition: the constitution will be revised to designate a vice president as the president’s legitimate successor.", "zh": "因此，政权采取了新战略，旨在营造转型的氛围：宪法将作出修订，增加一名副总统作为总统的合法继任者。", "index": 8592}
{"en": "Of course, the move’s true purpose will be to allow the army to rally around the next compliant “civilian leader.”", "zh": "当然，这一举措的真实目的是让军方团结在下一位顺从的“文官领导人”周围。", "index": 8593}
{"en": "The regime will also propose a “national contract,” supposedly to initiate a dialogue with the opposition.", "zh": "政权还将提出“国民契约 ” ， 假装开启与反对派的对话。", "index": 8594}
{"en": "But, in the wake of Bouteflika’s bogus victory, the opposition can no longer accept a sham role in the regime’s reform plans.", "zh": "但是，面对波特弗利卡的假胜利，反对派无法继续接受在政权的改革计划中扮演掩人耳目的角色。", "index": 8595}
{"en": "In fact, the announcement that Bouteflika planned to run was enough to unite Islamists and leftists – even parties that had previously been co-opted by the regime – and spur them to stage a boycott of the vote.", "zh": "事实上，宣布本特弗利卡计划逃跑已足以团结伊斯兰教徒和左派 — — 甚至此前被政权选中的政党 — — 促使他们抵制投票。", "index": 8596}
{"en": "When the election results were announced, they swiftly rejected the new government as illegitimate.", "zh": "在选举结果宣布后，他们马上拒绝承认新政府的合法性。", "index": 8597}
{"en": "But, to gain credibility, the opposition parties will have to extend their criticism beyond Bouteflika to the system as a whole.", "zh": "但是，要获得信誉，反对党必须将批评从本特弗利卡一人扩大到整个体制。", "index": 8598}
{"en": "This has become crucial to their survival, as younger opponents are seeking new ways to bring about political change outside state-controlled politics.", "zh": "这对于它们来说事关生死存亡，因为年轻一代反对派正在寻找新方式，在国家控制政治之外营造政治变革。", "index": 8599}
{"en": "One important development is the growing influence of non-partisan voices of dissent.", "zh": "一个重要的发展趋势是无党派持异见者影响力日增。", "index": 8600}
{"en": "Non-violent movements have formed to protest not only Bouteflika’s continued leadership, but also the pervasive role of the army and intelligence services in civil society.", "zh": "非暴力运动不但反对波特弗利卡的连选连任，也反对军方和情报机构在公民社会中的无孔不入。", "index": 8601}
{"en": "Such movements, like the much-publicized “Barakat” (“Enough”), have encouraged a shift among Algerians from resentful abstention to active boycott.", "zh": "这些运动，如相当公开化的“足够 ” （ Barakat）运动，鼓励阿尔及利亚人从愤怒而消极的弃权转为积极的抵制。", "index": 8602}
{"en": "Underground unions – which mount demonstrations and strikes to protect workers’ rights, while refusing to cooperate with the regime’s official unions – have also criticized the election.", "zh": "地下工会 — — 它们组织了保护工人权利的示威和罢工，并拒绝与政权的官方工会合作 — — 也批评选举。", "index": 8603}
{"en": "Moreover, young people have assumed a prominent role in opposition efforts, such as by disrupting Bouteflika’s campaign rallies.", "zh": "此外，年轻人在反对运动 — — 包括干扰波特弗利卡的竞选阵营 — — 中起到了主导作用。", "index": 8604}
{"en": "Demonstrations by unemployed young people in southern Algeria, the center of the oil industry, drew a direct link between high unemployment and the military’s control of the country’s natural resources.", "zh": "失业年轻人在阿尔及利亚南部的石油业中心举行示威，认为高失业与军方控制阿尔及利亚自然资源之间存在直接联系。", "index": 8605}
{"en": "By organizing peaceful protests to demand accountability for public spending, these movements are raising issues that were not addressed during the election campaign.", "zh": "这些运动通过组织和平示威要求问责公共支出，引出了竞选期间未能解决的问题。", "index": 8606}
{"en": "More immediately, they are also challenging the government’s ban on street demonstrations – a vestige of the state of emergency that lasted from 1992 until 2011.", "zh": "此后他们还挑战了政府的街头游行禁令 — — 从1992年一直持续到2011年的紧急状态后遗症。", "index": 8607}
{"en": "With the civil war of the 1990’s long over, security officials cannot explain why Algerians are being arrested for demanding jobs.", "zh": "1990年内战已经过去很久，安全官员已无法解释为何要逮捕要求获得工作的阿尔及利亚人。", "index": 8608}
{"en": "Of course, repression continues to intimidate many Algerians.", "zh": "当然，镇压将继续威胁许多阿尔及利亚人。", "index": 8609}
{"en": "But it is becoming increasingly easy to rouse their sympathy for their fellow citizens through Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook.", "zh": "但通过Twitter、YouTube和Facebook激发他们对同胞人民的同情心已变得越来越容易。", "index": 8610}
{"en": "By stimulating daily public debate about local human-rights violations, they spread the message of discontent more efficiently than traditional parties ever have.", "zh": "他们通过激发对本地侵犯人权行为的日常争论，更有效地传播不满情绪，这是此前的传统政党无法做到的。", "index": 8611}
{"en": "By demanding better state services, rather than an “Arab Spring,” Algerians have walked a fine line, highlighting the regime’s inability to deliver security and economic prosperity, despite its efforts to stifle all debate.", "zh": "阿尔及利亚人要求的是更好的国家服务，而非“阿拉伯之春 ” ， 这一做法十分巧妙，凸显出政权在无力带给人民安全和经济繁荣，尽管它在竭力扼杀争论。", "index": 8612}
{"en": "Thus, even without explicitly talking about politics, ordinary Algerians are mobilizing in growing numbers against the government.", "zh": "因此，即使不明确谈论政治，仍有越来越多的普通阿尔及利亚人被动员起来反对政府。", "index": 8613}
{"en": "The majority of street protests have occurred in the most deprived and neglected areas, and the primary demands have been economic: better jobs, housing, health-care services, and infrastructure.", "zh": "街头游行主要发生在权利受侵害最严重、最受忽视的地区，基本需求也都是经济方面的需求：更好的工作、住房、医疗服务和基础设施。", "index": 8614}
{"en": "For some, the right to make a living through the informal market would be sufficient.", "zh": "对一些人来说，获得在非正式市场中讨生活的权利便已足够。", "index": 8615}
{"en": "And demonstrators have gone to great – sometimes destructive – lengths to be heard, blocking roads, occupying factories and government buildings, and sabotaging water and electricity infrastructure.", "zh": "示威者的队伍十分庞大 — — 有时具有破坏性 — — 发出振聋发聩的声音，设置路障，占领工厂和政府大楼，捣毁供水和电力基础涉水。", "index": 8616}
{"en": "More than 150 Algerians have even set themselves on fire since 2011, usually in front of public services buildings.", "zh": "自2011年以来，150多名阿尔及利亚人甚至不惜自焚 — — 地点多在政府大楼前。", "index": 8617}
{"en": "In this context, the failure of the government’s half-baked attempts to buy off protesters is unsurprising.", "zh": "在这样��背景下，政府做出试图收买反对者的肤浅手段不足为奇。", "index": 8618}
{"en": "In 2011, the government, fearing contagion from Tunisia and Egypt, where long-established dictatorships had just been toppled, responded to the spread of protests by public-sector workers by raising their salaries by 100% – retroactively to 2008.", "zh": "2011年，政府担心突尼斯和埃及的状况 — — 长期独裁统治被推翻蔓延到阿尔及利亚，对公共部门员工示威蔓延的反应是提高100%的薪水，这在2008年算得上逆潮流而动。", "index": 8619}
{"en": "But the plan backfired; protests intensified, with other workers demonstrating for similar benefits and railing against the inflation that the move engendered.", "zh": "但这一计划适得其反，示威更加严重了，其他部门的工人也要求获得同样的好处，并抗议政府的这一行为所导致的通货膨胀。", "index": 8620}
{"en": "To be sure, street protests have already had a profound impact on Algeria’s authoritarian politics, with official fears of massive uprisings affecting public budgets and political appointments.", "zh": "平心而论，街头抗议已经对阿尔及利亚集权政治造成了深远影响，官员担心大规模动乱影响公共预算和政治任命。", "index": 8621}
{"en": "But the decision to prolong Bouteflika’s presidency will not provide the kind of strong, transformational leadership that Algeria needs to materialize the regime’s stability promises.", "zh": "但延长波特弗利卡总统任期的决定并不能给阿尔及利亚带来实现政权的稳定承诺所需要的强大的转型性领导。", "index": 8622}
{"en": "The Algerian authorities face a major challenge, because rejection of pluralist institutions makes it more difficult to find negotiating partners.", "zh": "阿尔及利亚当局面临着巨大的挑战，因为拒绝接受多元制度让它难以找到谈判伙伴。", "index": 8623}
{"en": "The more the regime tries to buy off the protesters, the more overweening it appears – and the angrier citizens become.", "zh": "政权越是试图收买反对者，就会越显出它的自负 — — 人民也就变得越愤怒。", "index": 8624}
{"en": "And the enraged younger generation, in particular, is not especially fearful of losing the limited benefits offered by the status quo.", "zh": "尤其是，愤怒的年轻一代并不特别害怕失去现状给他们带来的那点可怜的好处。", "index": 8625}
{"en": "America After the Election", "zh": "大选后的美国", "index": 8626}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The ongoing presidential campaign in the United States stands out for its lack of civility and the vast differences between the candidates: the anti-establishment businessman Donald Trump on the Republican side and the polished politician Hillary Clinton representing the Democrats.", "zh": "基辅—正在进行中的美国总统选战有两个特点，一是不文明，二是候选人差异巨大：共和党一边是反建制商人唐纳德·特朗普，代表民主党的则是道貌岸然的政客希拉里·克林顿。", "index": 8627}
{"en": "The contest has exposed deep fault lines within American society and damaged the country’s global reputation.", "zh": "这场选战暴露出美国社会内部深刻的断层线，也损害了美国的国际名誉。", "index": 8628}
{"en": "No surprise, then, that one of the few things Americans seem to agree on is that the campaign has gone on for too long.", "zh": "因此，毫不奇怪，一件能让美国人统一意见的极少数事情之一便是这场选战实在是又臭又长。", "index": 8629}
{"en": "But soon it will be over.", "zh": "但它马上就要结束了。", "index": 8630}
{"en": "The question is: what comes next?", "zh": "问题是，接下来会怎样？", "index": 8631}
{"en": "Polls suggest that Clinton, a former senator and secretary of state, will defeat the controversial Trump.", "zh": "民调显示，前参议员、国务卿克林顿将击败饱受争议的特朗普。", "index": 8632}
{"en": "But polls are not to be confused with reality.", "zh": "但不要把民调与现实弄混了。", "index": 8633}
{"en": "After all, going into June’s Brexit referendum, most observers believed that a victory for “Remain” was a sure thing.", "zh": "毕竟，6月份英国举行脱欧公投时，大部分观察家认为“留欧”阵营取得胜利是板上钉钉。", "index": 8634}
{"en": "More recently, Colombian voters rejected a peace accord that was widely expected to receive popular approval.", "zh": "最近则有哥伦比亚人民拒绝和平协议的事件，人们原本广泛预期这一协议会受到热烈欢迎。", "index": 8635}
{"en": "All of this is to say that, while a Clinton victory may be likely, it is no certainty.", "zh": "所有这些表明，尽管克林顿眼看就要取得胜利，但结果仍不确定。", "index": 8636}
{"en": "The only poll that counts is the one on November 8.", "zh": "唯一有意义的民调是11月8日。", "index": 8637}
{"en": "Until then, all we can do is speculate.", "zh": "在此之前，我们只能猜测。", "index": 8638}
{"en": "Yet some predictions can be made with greater confidence.", "zh": "但已经有人做出了信心满满的预测。", "index": 8639}
{"en": "There is little doubt that the US will emerge from this election a divided country with a divided government, regardless of who is president or which party has a majority in either chamber of Congress.", "zh": "几乎毫无疑问，经历了这次选举后，美国将是一个分裂的国家，出现一个分裂的政府，不管谁当总统、哪个党控制国会两院多数。", "index": 8640}
{"en": "Neither Democrats nor Republicans will be able to realize their objectives without at least some support from the other.", "zh": "不管是民主党还是共和党，都无法实现自己的目标，除非得到对方的一定的支持。", "index": 8641}
{"en": "But no one should think that the only divide in American politics is between Republicans and Democrats.", "zh": "但决不能认为美国政治唯一的分歧点就在共和党和民主党。", "index": 8642}
{"en": "In fact, splits within the two major parties are just as deep, with large and highly motivated factions pulling each to their respective extremes – Democrats to the left and Republicans to the right.", "zh": "事实上，两大党内部的分裂同样深刻，规模庞大、斗志昂扬的派系将两党推向各自的极端 — — 民主党左倾，共和党右倾。", "index": 8643}
{"en": "This makes compromise on centrist positions all the more difficult to achieve.", "zh": "这导致在中间立场形成妥协的局面非常难以达成。", "index": 8644}
{"en": "The rapid resumption of presidential politics will undermine compromise further.", "zh": "总统政治的迅速卷土重来将进一步破坏妥协。", "index": 8645}
{"en": "If Clinton wins, many Republicans will assume that it was only because of Trump’s flaws, and they will judge her likely to be a one-term president.", "zh": "如果克林顿获胜，许多共和党人会将全部责任推给特朗普的缺陷，而认为克林顿只能担任一个任期。", "index": 8646}
{"en": "A country favoring change, they will conclude, is unlikely to keep a Democrat in the Oval Office for a fourth term.", "zh": "他们会这样认为：一个喜欢变化的国家不可能让民主党主宰椭圆办公室四个任期。", "index": 8647}
{"en": "Many Republicans (especially those who deny the legitimacy of a Clinton victory) will thus seek to frustrate her administration, lest she be able to run again in 2020 as a successful incumbent.", "zh": "许多共和党人（特别是那些否认克林顿胜利合法性的共和党）将因此寻求对克林顿政府从中作梗，唯恐她在2020年作为成功的在任总统再次竞选。", "index": 8648}
{"en": "Similarly, if Trump manages to win, most Democrats (and even some Republicans) will – after recovering from their surprise and dismay – make it their highest priority to ensure that he does not have an opportunity for a second term.", "zh": "类似地，如果特朗普成功获胜，大部分民主党人（甚至一些共和党人）在从震惊与沮丧中回过神之后将把确保特朗普无法参加第二次竞选作为最高任务。", "index": 8649}
{"en": "Given how much of Trump’s agenda his fellow policymakers would likely find objectionable, governing would be very difficult during his administration.", "zh": "特朗普��策团队所制定的日程必将遭遇重重阻力，在他的任期内，治理国家将非常困难。", "index": 8650}
{"en": "In either scenario, it may still be possible to make progress in a few key areas.", "zh": "不管发生哪个情景，仍有可能在一些关键领域取得进展。", "index": 8651}
{"en": "The next US government might manage to enact legislation to fund the modernization of America’s aging infrastructure, a policy that both candidates and many in Congress favor.", "zh": "下一届美国政府或可以实施立法筹资对美国陈旧的基础设施进行现代化，两位获选人和许多国会议员都支持这样做。", "index": 8652}
{"en": "It might also be able to cobble together a majority to reform the US tax code – in particular, lowering the high rate for corporations and raising taxes on the wealthy.", "zh": "或许也有望凑成多数改革美国税法 — — 特别是降低高昂的公司税率并对富人增税。", "index": 8653}
{"en": "There could even be some reform of health care, President Barack Obama’s signature achievement, owing to serious implementation problems with the current system.", "zh": "甚至还可能会有一些医疗改革，作为奥巴马总统招牌式的成就，当前医疗制度仍存在严重的实施问题。", "index": 8654}
{"en": "But other issues requiring cooperation between Congress and the president are unlikely to be addressed any time soon.", "zh": "但其他要求国会与总统合作的问题绝无可能在短期得到解决。", "index": 8655}
{"en": "One is immigration reform, which is as controversial in the US as it is in Europe.", "zh": "其一是移民改革，这个问题在美国与在欧洲一样存在争议。", "index": 8656}
{"en": "Another is trade: because the domestic political environment makes policymakers wary of supporting positions with dedicated opponents, both Trump and Clinton oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership, even though its ratification would benefit America’s economy and strategic standing.", "zh": "另一个是贸易：国内政治环境导致决策者害怕支持存在专注的反对者的立场，因此特朗普和克林顿都反对跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（TPP ） ， 即使批准该协定有利于美国经济和战略立场。", "index": 8657}
{"en": "Meanwhile, America’s deficit and debt are certain to rise, as there seems to be little or no will to reduce entitlement spending.", "zh": "与此同时，美国的赤字和债务也必将增加，因为根本看不出有削减福利支出的意愿。", "index": 8658}
{"en": "The foreign-policy implications of the election are somewhat different, because, under the US Constitution, the president enjoys considerable latitude.", "zh": "大选的外交政策影响略有不同，因为，根据美国宪法，总统享有相当大的自由度。", "index": 8659}
{"en": "While only Congress can officially declare war or ratify treaties, presidents may use (or refuse to use) military force without explicit congressional approval.", "zh": "只有国会可以正式宣战或批准条约，但总统可以在没有国会明确批准的情况下使用（或拒绝使用）武力。", "index": 8660}
{"en": "They can also enter into international agreements other than treaties, appoint powerful White House staff, and change US foreign policy by executive action, as Obama recently did regarding Cuba.", "zh": "总统还可以签署国际协定而非条约，任命强力白宫官员，以及通过行政动作改变美国外交政策（如奥巴马最近对古巴的动作 ） 。", "index": 8661}
{"en": "Under Clinton, this discretion could translate into establishing one or more safe areas in Syria, providing more defensive arms to Ukraine, and taking a tougher line toward North Korea as it continues its nuclear and missile buildup.", "zh": "如果克林顿当选，这一自由裁量权将带来的是：在叙利亚建立一个或多个安全区；为乌克兰提供更多防御武器；以及对继续核和导弹实验的朝鲜采取更加强硬的立场。", "index": 8662}
{"en": "It is more difficult to guess what Trump would do.", "zh": "特朗普会怎么做更难猜测。", "index": 8663}
{"en": "He is, after all, a political outsider, so no one knows how much of his campaign rhetoric would be translated into policy.", "zh": "毕竟，他是政治局外人，因此没人知道他的竞选纲领中有多少会转化为政策。", "index": 8664}
{"en": "Still, one could anticipate a Trump administration distancing itself from some traditional allies in Europe and Asia and standing mostly aloof from the Middle East.", "zh": "但人们可能预测特朗普政府将与某些欧洲和亚洲的传统盟友保持距离，对中东更是敬而远之。", "index": 8665}
{"en": "What exactly will happen to America after the presidential election remains an open question.", "zh": "美国总统大选后究竟会发生什么仍是一个开放性问题。", "index": 8666}
{"en": "Though some outcomes can reasonably be expected, the only genuine certainty is that the 96% of the world’s population that does not vote in US elections will feel the effects no less than Americans will.", "zh": "尽管可以合理地预期到一些结果，但唯一真正确定的是不能在美国总统大选中投票的96%的世界人口都将与美国人一样真切地感受到大选结果的影响。", "index": 8667}
{"en": "America and Europe", "zh": "美国和欧洲", "index": 8668}
{"en": "Deeply frustrated by the Bush administration’s policies, many people and governments in Europe hope for a fundamental change in American foreign policy after the upcoming presidential election.", "zh": "在对布什政府的政策深感挫伤之后，欧洲的许多人和政府都希望在即将进行的总统大选之后，美国的外交政策能有根本性的变化。", "index": 8669}
{"en": "But it would take a medium-sized political miracle for these hopes not to be disappointed, and such a miracle will not happen – whoever is elected.", "zh": "但要这些希望别成为失望，就需要有一场中等规模的政治奇迹，而这样的奇迹将不会发生—不管谁当选。", "index": 8670}
{"en": "The Bush administration made numerous foreign-policy blunders with far-reaching consequences.", "zh": "布什政府在外交政策上屡犯大错，后果深远。", "index": 8671}
{"en": "But Bush neither invented American unilateralism nor triggered the transatlantic rift between the United States and Europe.", "zh": "但布什既没有发明美国的单边主义，也没有造成大西洋两岸欧美之间的裂隙。", "index": 8672}
{"en": "To be sure, Bush reinforced both trends, but their real causes lie in objective historical factors, namely America’s being the sole world power since 1989 and Europe’s self-inflicted weakness.", "zh": "确切地说，布什强化了这两种趋势，但究其原因还在于客观的历史因素，也就是自1989年以来美国在世界上的一家独大和欧洲自作自受的软弱。", "index": 8673}
{"en": "As long as America remains the sole world power, the next US President will be neither able nor willing to change the basic framework of America’s foreign policy.", "zh": "只要美国仍然还是世界唯一的超级大国，下一任美国总统就既不能也不愿改变美国外交政策的基本框架。", "index": 8674}
{"en": "It will, of course, be important who wins the presidency: a candidate expected to continue Bush’s foreign policy or someone ready for a new beginning.", "zh": "当然，谁赢得总统宝座也很重要：是一个会继续布什外交政策的候选人，还是一个准备重新开始的人。", "index": 8675}
{"en": "In the former case, the transatlantic rift will deepen dramatically.", "zh": "如果是前一种情况，欧美之间的裂隙会进一步加深。", "index": 8676}
{"en": "Four, or even eight, more years of US policy à la Bush would inflict such damage on the substance of the transatlantic alliance as to threaten its very existence.", "zh": "4年，甚至8年的“布什式”美国政策的继续会给跨大西洋联盟造成实质性的破坏，甚至危及其生存。", "index": 8677}
{"en": "But if America’s next president is committed to a new direction, US foreign policy might again become more multilateral, more focused on international institutions and alliances, and willing to bring the relationship between military force and diplomacy back to within its historical proportions.", "zh": "但如果美国的下一任总统有志于开拓新方向，那么美国外交政策可能再一次变得更多边化，更关注国际机构和联盟，并愿意将武力和外交的关系重新摆放到其历史的范畴中去。", "index": 8678}
{"en": "That is the good news.", "zh": "那将会是条好消息。", "index": 8679}
{"en": "The bad news is that, even under such auspicious conditions, the US, as a world power, will not relinquish its “free-hand” policy or forget its strength and its claim to preeminence among nations.", "zh": "而坏消息则是，即便在如此祥和的环境下，美国作为世界唯一的超级大国，也不会放弃其“随心所欲”的政策或忘记自身的实力，令其他国家唯其马首是瞻。", "index": 8680}
{"en": "Another piece of bad (or good?) news is that a more multilateral American policy will increase the pressure on Europeans to take on more responsibility for international crisis management and conflict resolution – in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, the Middle East, Transcaucasia, and Russia, and with respect to Turkey’s future.", "zh": "另一个坏（抑或是好？ ）消息是，一种更多边化的美国政策会向欧洲人施加压力，让他们在国际危机管理和冲突解决方面担负起更多的责任—在阿富汗、伊朗、中东、高加索地区和俄罗斯以及与土耳其的未来相关的事务方面。", "index": 8681}
{"en": "To this common agenda, the Europeans should add Africa, climate change, and reform of the United Nations and the world trading system.", "zh": "欧洲人还应该把非洲、气候变化和联合国改革及世界贸易体系写入这一共同议程。", "index": 8682}
{"en": "For a long time, Europe has underestimated its weight and importance.", "zh": "长期以来，欧洲都低估了自己的份量和重要性。", "index": 8683}
{"en": "Europe’s geopolitical, economic, and social weight is quite obvious.", "zh": "它在地缘政治、经济和社会方面的影响力不言自明。", "index": 8684}
{"en": "But Europe’s integration of sovereign states’ interests by means of common institutions could also be an example for much of the world.", "zh": "但欧洲通过共同制度整合主权国家利益的方式也同样为世界其他许多地方做出了榜样。", "index": 8685}
{"en": "In particular, the way Europe, in the process of its enlargement, has projected its power to achieve lasting peace across the whole continent, and fostered development by integrating entire economies, states, and societies within its institutional framework, could become a model for shaping a cooperative world order in the twenty-first century.", "zh": "特别是欧洲在扩大的过程中运用其实力实现整个大陆的持久和平，通过所有经济体、国家和社会在其制度框架内的一体化来促进发展的做法，更可以成为二十一世纪建立合作的国际秩序的样板。", "index": 8686}
{"en": "This modern, progressive, and peaceful model is unique and superior to all other currently available approaches to the fundamental questions of political order.", "zh": "这种现代、进步且和平的模式是独特的，并且优于其它所有现行的、针对政治秩序的根本性问题的众多模式。", "index": 8687}
{"en": "But could doesn’t mean will.", "zh": "但“能够”并不意味着“将要 ” 。", "index": 8688}
{"en": "Europe’s global influence is feeble because of its internal quarrels and lack of unity, which render the European Union weak and limit its ability to act.", "zh": "欧洲全球影响力的虚弱是由于内部纷争和缺乏统一。 这让欧盟也变得软弱，并限制了它的行动能力。", "index": 8689}
{"en": "Objectively strong, subjectively infirm – that is how the EU’s present condition can be described.", "zh": "外强中干—这就是对欧盟现状的最佳描述。", "index": 8690}
{"en": "The current moment of American weakness coincides with a substantially changed international political environment, defined largely by the limits of US power, Europe’s ineffectiveness, and the emergence of new global giants like China and India.", "zh": "美国现时的软弱是与经历了深刻变化的国际政治环境相关的，其特点是美国势力的局限，欧洲的无所作为和中国、印度等新的全球大国的出现。", "index": 8691}
{"en": "In light of these developments, does it still make sense to speak of “the West”?", "zh": "在这样的形势下，再提“西方”还有意义么？", "index": 8692}
{"en": "I believe it does, more than ever, because the rift between Europe and America leaves both sides substantially weaker in global terms.", "zh": "我认为比以往任何时候都有意义，因为欧美之间的裂隙使得双方的实力在全球层面上都大打折扣。", "index": 8693}
{"en": "The unilateral overstretching of American power offers a chance for a new beginning in US-European relations.", "zh": "美国实力的单边过渡延伸给欧美关系的新起点提供了机会。", "index": 8694}
{"en": "America, more than in the past, will depend on strong partners and will seek such partnerships.", "zh": "美国比以往更需要强大的伙伴，也会寻求这样的伙伴关系。", "index": 8695}
{"en": "So what are the Europeans waiting for?", "zh": "既然如此，欧洲人还在等待什么？", "index": 8696}
{"en": "Why not start now to overcome the traditional tension between NATO and the EU – especially as French policy toward NATO under President Nicolas Sarkozy has been moving in the right direction?", "zh": "为什么不从现在就开始改变北约与欧盟之间传统的紧张局面—特别是在萨科奇总统主持下的法国对北约的政策正向着正确方向发展的情况下？", "index": 8697}
{"en": "A regular mutual presence of the Secretary General of NATO and of the head of EU foreign policy in the councils of both organizations doesn’t require much time and effort.", "zh": "让北约的秘书长和欧盟外交政策的领导人定期相互出席对方组织相关委员会的会议并不需要花多少时间和精力。", "index": 8698}
{"en": "Why not initiate EU-US consultations at a high political level (with the Secretary-General of NATO participating in security matters) – for instance, by inviting the US Secretary of State and other members of the administration, such as the Treasury Secretary or the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, to sit several times a year on the appropriate EU Council meetings?", "zh": "何不开启欧盟—美国的高政治级别（北约秘书��参与到安全事务中）协商—例如，邀请美国国务卿和其他政府官员，如财政部长或环保部门首长每年出席几次欧盟相关委员会的会议呢？", "index": 8699}
{"en": "Why not have routine annual meetings between the European Council and the US President?", "zh": "为什么不建立欧盟委员会和美国总统之间每年定期会晤的机制呢？", "index": 8700}
{"en": "Periodic meetings between the appropriate committees of the US Congress and the European Parliament would also be of great importance, as ultimately both bodies will have to ratify any international treaties.", "zh": "美国国会和欧洲议会的相关委员会之间的定期会晤也会十分重要，因为任何国际条约都要经过这两个机构的批准。", "index": 8701}
{"en": "The fate of the Kyoto Protocol should be a lesson to all parties involved.", "zh": "《京都议定书》的命运对相关各方都应该是个教训。", "index": 8702}
{"en": "No such US-EU consultations would require any new agreements, so they could start without any further preliminaries.", "zh": "如此的美国—欧盟协商机制不需要任何新的协议，因此完全可以马上付诸实施。", "index": 8703}
{"en": "There is one certainty that Europeans can take home from the US election campaign even today: with a more multilaterally oriented US foreign policy, Europe won’t be riding comfortably in the US world-political slipstream much longer.", "zh": "就算在今天，欧洲人也能从美国总统竞选中明确地看到一点：随着美国外交政策更加以多边化为导向，欧洲在美国的世界政治滑流中怡然而行的日子不会长久了。", "index": 8704}
{"en": "And that is a good thing.", "zh": "这是件好事。", "index": 8705}
{"en": "The new transatlantic formula must be greater say in decision-making in exchange for a greater share of responsibility.", "zh": "新的跨大西洋关系必须在决策方面拥有更大的发言权以换取更多的责任。", "index": 8706}
{"en": "America at Stall Speed?", "zh": "失速的美国？", "index": 8707}
{"en": "NEWPORT BEACH – Judging from the skittishness of both markets and “consensus expectations,” the United States’ economic prospects are confusing.", "zh": "纽波特海滩 — — 从市场和“一致预期”的变幻莫测判断，人们对美国经济前景仍是一片茫然。", "index": 8708}
{"en": "One day, the country is on the brink of a double-dip recession; the next, it is on the verge of a turbo-charged recovery, powered by resilient consumers and US multinationals starting to deploy, at long last, their massive cash reserves.", "zh": "今天眼看着美国就要掉下二次探底的悬崖了；过了一晚，受消费回弹刺激和美国跨国公司终于开始着手使用手里的大把现金储备，看上去高速复苏又近在眼前了。", "index": 8709}
{"en": "In the process, markets take investors on a wild rollercoaster ride, with the European crisis (riddled with even more confusion and volatility) serving to aggravate their queasiness.", "zh": "在市场的左右摇摆之间，投资者仿佛坐上了过山车，而欧洲危机（更令人困惑、更大起大落）进一步加剧了乘客的头晕反应。", "index": 8710}
{"en": "This situation is both understandable and increasingly unsettling for America’s well-being and that of the global economy.", "zh": "这一情形不难理解，却也加剧了美国和全球经济的不安。", "index": 8711}
{"en": "It reflects the impact of fundamental (and historic) economic and financial re-alignments, insufficient policy responses, and system-wide rigidities that frustrate structural change.", "zh": "这反映了基础性（和历史性）经济和财政再联盟、政策应对不力、以及让结构变革陷入停顿的系统性僵化所产生的后果。", "index": 8712}
{"en": "As a result, there are now legitimate questions about the underlying functioning of the US economy and, therefore, its evolution in the months and years ahead.", "zh": "结果，人们对美国经济的基础功能及其在未来数月和数年的发展动向提出了合理质疑。", "index": 8713}
{"en": "One way to understand current conditions – and what is needed to improve them – is to consider two events that recently attracted considerable worldwide attention: the launch of Boeing’s Dreamliner passenger jet and the tragic death of Apple’s Steve Jobs.", "zh": "一种理解当前形势 — — 以及如何改进 — — 的办法是思考两件引起世界范围大关注的事件：波音梦幻客机的发布以及苹果公司的乔布斯去世的噩耗。", "index": 8714}
{"en": "Let us start with some simple aeronautic dynamics, using an analogy that my PIMCO colleague, Bill Gross, came up with to describe the economic risks facing the American economy.", "zh": "让我们从一些简单的航空动力学开始，用我的太平洋投资公司（PIMCO）同事格罗斯（Bill Gross）所做的比方来描述美国经济所面临的经济风险。", "index": 8715}
{"en": "For the Dreamliner to take off, ascend, and maintain a steady altitude, it must do more than move forward.", "zh": "梦幻客机想要起飞、升空然后维持稳定高度，光是向前运动是不够的。", "index": 8716}
{"en": "It has to move forward fast enough to exceed critical physical thresholds, which are significantly higher than those for most of Boeing’s other (smaller) planes.", "zh": "它必须向前运动得足够快，超过某个物理临界阈值 — — 远高于绝大部分波音其他型号（体型更小）的飞机。", "index": 8717}
{"en": "Failure would mean succumbing to a mid-air stall, with tepid forward motion giving way to a sudden loss of altitude.", "zh": "失败意味着空中停车、降速因而导致高度突降。", "index": 8718}
{"en": "Unless we are convinced of the Dreamliner’s ability to avoid stall speed, it makes no sense to talk about all the ways in which it will enhance the travel experience for millions of people around the world.", "zh": "除非我们确信梦幻客机有能力避免失速，否则大谈能如何改进全球数百万乘客的旅行体验纯属空中楼阁。", "index": 8719}
{"en": "America’s economy today risks stall speed.", "zh": "美国经济如今就面临着失速风险。", "index": 8720}
{"en": "Specifically, the question is not whether it can grow, but whether it can grow fast enough to propel a large economy that, according to the US Federal Reserve, faces “balance-sheet deleveraging, credit constraints, and household and business uncertainty about the economic outlook.”", "zh": "具体而言，问题不在于是否增长，而在于增长是否足够快，足以驱动一个面临着“资产负债表去杠杆化、信贷约束以及家庭和企业对经济前景充满狐疑 ” （ 美联储语）的大型经济。", "index": 8721}
{"en": "And, remember, it is just over a year since certain US officials were proclaiming the economy’s “summer of recovery” – a view underpinned by the erroneous belief that America was reaching “escape velocity.”", "zh": "还有，不要忘了，仅仅是一年前，一些美国官员信誓旦旦地宣称美国经济已经步入了“复苏之夏 ” ， 而这一观点还得到了美国正在达到“逃逸速度”的错误信念的支持。", "index": 8722}
{"en": "Stall speed is a terrifying risk for an economy like that of the US, which desperately needs to grow robustly.", "zh": "失速对于像美国这样的极度需要稳健增长的经济体来说具有很高风险。", "index": 8723}
{"en": "Without rapid growth, there is no way to reverse persistently high and increasingly structural (and therefore protracted) unemployment; safely de-leverage over-indebted balance sheets; and prevent already-disturbing income and wealth inequalities from growing worse.", "zh": "没有快速增长就无法逆转持续且越来越倒向结构性（从而会更加难以根除）的事业趋势，无法实现过度负债的资产负债表的安全去杠杆化，无法防止已然恶化的收入和财富不平等雪上加霜。", "index": 8724}
{"en": "The private sector alone cannot and will not counter the risk of stall speed.", "zh": "私人部门无法也不会单独抵挡失速风险。", "index": 8725}
{"en": "What is desperately needed is better policymaking.", "zh": "当前急需的是更好的决策。", "index": 8726}
{"en": "Specifically, policymakers must be open and willing to understand the unusual challenges facing the US economy, react accordingly, and possess sufficiently potent policy instruments.", "zh": "具体而言，决策者应该开诚布公，并愿意厘清美国经济所面临的非常规挑战，做出相应的反应，同时掌握充分的有效政策工具。", "index": 8727}
{"en": "Unfortunately, this has been far from the case in America (and in Europe, where the situation is worse).", "zh": "不幸的是，美国（以及欧洲，那里的情况比美国还遭）的现状离这一步还差得很远。", "index": 8728}
{"en": "Moreover, US policymakers in the last few weeks have been more interested in pointing fingers at Europe and China than in recognizing and responding to the paradigm shifts that are at the root of the country’s economic problems and mounting social challenges.", "zh": "此外，最近数周，美国决策者对向欧洲和中国指手画脚更感兴趣，而没有把精力放在识别和应对范式变化上，而范式变化才是美国经济问题和社会挑战日渐艰巨的根源。", "index": 8729}
{"en": "This is where the insights of Steve Jobs, one of the world’s best innovators and entrepreneurs, come in.", "zh": "这正是史蒂夫·乔布斯 — — 全世界最好的创新者和企业家 — — 的洞见的闪光之处。", "index": 8730}
{"en": "Jobs did more than navigate paradigm shifts; he essentially created them.", "zh": "乔布斯不但引导着范式的变化方向；事实上，他创造着范式。", "index": 8731}
{"en": "He was a master at converting the complicated into the simple; and, rather than being paralyzed by complexity, he found new ways to deconstruct and overcome it.", "zh": "他是化繁为简的一代宗师；他不但没有陷入复杂性的漩涡中无法走出，反而发现了重建和克服复杂性之路。", "index": 8732}
{"en": "Teamwork was an obligation, not a choice.", "zh": "团队合作是一种义务，而不是一种选择。", "index": 8733}
{"en": "And he eschewed the search for the single “big bang” in favor of aiming for multiple breakthroughs.", "zh": "他并没有寻求单一的“大爆炸 ” ， 而是以各个击破为目标。", "index": 8734}
{"en": "Underlying it all was a willingness to evolve – a drive for perfection through experimentation.", "zh": "归根到底，这来自于渐近 — — 用实验为推动力一步步迈向完美 — — 的意愿。", "index": 8735}
{"en": "Moreover, he excelled at selling to audiences worldwide both his vision and his strategy for realizing it.", "zh": "此外，他还擅长向全世界信徒兜售自己的新愿景及其实现战略。", "index": 8736}
{"en": "So far, America’s economic policymakers have fallen short on all of these fronts.", "zh": "到目前为止，美国经济决策者在这方面已经大大落后了。", "index": 8737}
{"en": "Rather than committing to a comprehensive set of urgently-needed reinforcing measures, they seem obsessed with the futile search for the one “killer app” that will solve all of the country's economic problems.", "zh": "他们并没有承诺给出一整套急需的强化措施，而是沉溺于徒劳地寻求“大杀器”来一次性解决美���的所有经济问题。", "index": 8738}
{"en": "No surprise that they have yet to find it.", "zh": "结果呢？ 当然是一无所获。", "index": 8739}
{"en": "Teamwork has repeatedly fallen hostage to turf wars and political bickering.", "zh": "团队合作经常会沦为山头林立和政治扯皮。", "index": 8740}
{"en": "Little has been done to deconstruct structural complexity, let alone win sufficient public support for a medium-term vision, a credible implementation strategy, and a set of measures that is adequate to the task at hand.", "zh": "目前，我们连解构复杂性的努力都没有拿出来，更不用说赢得公众对某个中期愿景、某个可信实施战略以及一揽子足以应付手头问题的措施的支持了。", "index": 8741}
{"en": "The longer the policymaking impasse persists, the greater the stall-speed risk for an economy that already has an unemployment crisis, a large budget deficit, many underwater mortgages, and policy interest rates floored at zero.", "zh": "决策僵局多持续一日，美国经济 — — 已经陷入了失业危机、大规模财政赤字和大量资不抵债按揭贷款泥淖，同时政策利率已经下降到零水平 — — 的失速风险就放大一分。", "index": 8742}
{"en": "This is an atmosphere in which unhealthy balance sheets come under even greater pressure, and healthy investors refuse to engage.", "zh": "着这样的环境下，不健康的资产负债表将进一步承受更大的压力，而健康的投资者则拒绝赶这趟浑水。", "index": 8743}
{"en": "In the process, the risk of recession remains uncomfortably high, the unemployment crisis deepens, and inequities rise as already-stretched social safety nets prove even more porous.", "zh": "随之而来的是，衰退风险将继续阴魂不散，失业危机将继续深化，而不平等性将随着已然千疮百孔的社会安全网的进一步损坏而继续提高。", "index": 8744}
{"en": "America, China, and the Productivity Paradox", "zh": "美国、中国和生产率悖论", "index": 8745}
{"en": "NEW HAVEN – In the late 1980s, there was intense debate about the so-called productivity paradox – when massive investments in information technology (IT) were not delivering measureable productivity improvements.", "zh": "纽黑文—20世纪80年代末，有一个所谓的生产率悖论的激烈争论 — — 信息技术的大规模投资并没有带来可测的生产率改进。", "index": 8746}
{"en": "That paradox is now back, posing a problem for both the United States and China – one that may well come up in their annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue.", "zh": "如今，这一悖论卷土重来，给美国和中国造成了一个问题，一个将在一年一度的中美战略和经济对话中出现的问题。", "index": 8747}
{"en": "Back in 1987, Nobel laureate Robert Solow famously quipped, “You can see the computer age everywhere except in the productivity statistics.”", "zh": "让我们回到1987年。 这一年，诺贝尔经济学奖获得者罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）提出了他的著名讽刺 ： “ 计算机时代随处可见，就是无法在生产率数字中找到踪迹。", "index": 8748}
{"en": "The productivity paradox seemed to be resolved in the 1990s, when America experienced a spectacular productivity renaissance.", "zh": "”生产率悖论似乎在20世纪90年代得到了解决，当时，美国出现了蔚为壮观的生产率复兴。", "index": 8749}
{"en": "Average annual productivity growth in the country’s nonfarm business sector accelerated to 2.5% from 1991 to 2007, from the 1.5% trend in the preceding 15 years.", "zh": "1991—2007年美国非农商业部门生产率年增长率为2.5 % ， 而此前15年的趋势值为1.5 % 。", "index": 8750}
{"en": "The benefits of the Internet Age had finally materialized.", "zh": "互联网时代的好处终于实现了。", "index": 8751}
{"en": "Concern about the paradox all but vanished.", "zh": "关于生产率悖论的关注也烟消云散。", "index": 8752}
{"en": "But the celebration appears to have been premature.", "zh": "但人们似乎高兴得太早了。", "index": 8753}
{"en": "Despite another technological revolution, productivity growth is slumping again.", "zh": "尽管经历了又一次技术革命，但生产率增长再次下降。", "index": 8754}
{"en": "And this time the downturn is global in scope, affecting the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, most of all.", "zh": "这一回，生产率下降是全球趋势，影响最大的正是世界最大的两个经济体 — — 美国和中国。", "index": 8755}
{"en": "Over the past five years, from 2010 to 2014, annual US productivity growth has fallen to an average of 0.9%.", "zh": "在过去五年中（2010—2014年 ） ， 美国生产率平均年增长率下降到0.9 % 。", "index": 8756}
{"en": "It actually fell at a 2.6% annual rate in the two most recent quarters (in late 2014 and early 2015).", "zh": "实际上，在最近两个季度中（2014年底和2015年初 ） ， 生产率以2.6%的年率降低。", "index": 8757}
{"en": "Barring a major data revision, America’s productivity renaissance seems to have run into serious trouble.", "zh": "除非有重大数据修正，否则美国生产率复兴已经陷入了大麻烦。", "index": 8758}
{"en": "China is witnessing a similar pattern.", "zh": "中国也经历了类似的过程。", "index": 8759}
{"en": "Although the government does not publish regular productivity statistics, there is no mistaking the problem: Overall urban employment growth has been steady, at around 13.2 million workers per year since 2013 – well in excess of the government’s targeted growth rate of ten million.", "zh": "尽管政府并不定期公布生产率数字，但问题已经显而易见：城镇总体就业增长十分稳定，自2013年一直保持在每年1,320万人 — — 远超政府目标增长率一千万人。", "index": 8760}
{"en": "Moreover, hiring seems to be holding at that brisk pace in early 2015.", "zh": "而在2015年初，雇用活动似乎继续维持着这一强势。", "index": 8761}
{"en": "At the same time, output growth has slowed from the 10% trend of the 33 years ending in 2011 to around 7% today.", "zh": "与此同时，产出增长从33年（截至2011年底）来的趋势率10%下降到如今的7 % 。", "index": 8762}
{"en": "That downshift, in the face of sustained rapid job creation, implies an unmistakable deceleration of productivity.", "zh": "这一降幅是在持续高速就业创造的背景下发生的，表明生产率必定在减速。", "index": 8763}
{"en": "Therein lies the latest paradox.", "zh": "最新的悖论就在这里。", "index": 8764}
{"en": "With revolutionary technologies now driving the creation of new markets (digital media and computerized wearables), services (energy management and DNA sequencing), products (smartphones and robotics), and technology companies (Alibaba and Apple), surely productivity growth must be surging.", "zh": "革命性技术正在创造新的市场（数字媒体和计算机化可穿戴设备 ） 、 服务（能源管理和DNA测序 ） 、 产品（智能手机和机器人）和高科技公司（阿里巴巴和苹果 ） ， 毫无疑问生产率增长应该高歌猛进。", "index": 8765}
{"en": "As a modern-day Solow might say, the ���Internet of Everything” is everywhere except in the productivity statistics.", "zh": "当代索洛也许会说 ， “ 万物联网”随处可见，就是无法在生产率数字中找到踪迹。", "index": 8766}
{"en": "But is there really a paradox?", "zh": "但这真是一个悖论吗？", "index": 8767}
{"en": "Northwestern University’s Robert Gordon has argued that IT- and Internet-led innovations like automated high-speed data processing and e-commerce pale in comparison to the breakthroughs of the Industrial Revolution, including the steam engine, electricity, and indoor plumbing.", "zh": "西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）指出，信息技术和互联网引领的创新，如自动化高速数据处理和电子商务等，与包括蒸汽机、电力和自来水的工业革命相比根本不值一提。", "index": 8768}
{"en": "He maintains that, although these innovations led to dramatic transformations of the major advanced economies – such as higher female labor-force participation, increased transportation speed, urbanization, and normalized temperature control – these changes will be extremely hard to replicate.", "zh": "他认为，尽管这些创新给主要发达经济体带来了巨大的变化 — — 比如更高的女性劳动力参与率、交通速度的提高、城市化以及标准化温度控制 — — 但这些变化极其难以复制。", "index": 8769}
{"en": "Indeed, as taken with today’s revolutionary technologies as we are – I say this staring at my sleek new Apple Watch – I am sympathetic to Gordon’s argument.", "zh": "事实上，今天的革命性技术令我沉迷 — — 写下这句话的时候，我一边看着我崭新的苹果手表 — — 但我对戈登的观点深有共鸣。", "index": 8770}
{"en": "If US productivity figures are to be taken at anything close to face value – a persistently sluggish trend interrupted by a 16-year spurt that now appears to have faded – it is possible that all America has accomplished are transitional efficiency improvements associated with the IT-enabled shift from one technology platform to another.", "zh": "如果美国生产率数据确实如其所表现的那样 — — 一个长期萎靡的趋势被一个为期16年的涨势打破，而如今这一涨势已经消失 — — 那么有可能美国所取得的所有成就只是信息技术所驱动的、发生在从一个技术平台转移到另一个技术平台期间的过渡性的效率改进。", "index": 8771}
{"en": "Optimists maintain that the official statistics fail to capture marked quality-of-life improvements, which may be true, especially in the light of promising advances in biotechnology and online education.", "zh": "乐观派认为官方数字没有体现生活质量的显著改善，也许确实如此，特别是考虑到生物技术和在线教育等重大突破时。", "index": 8772}
{"en": "But this overlooks a much more important aspect of the productivity-measurement critique: the undercounting of work time associated with the widespread use of portable information appliances.", "zh": "但这忽视了生产率衡量手段批评的另一个重要得多的角度：便携式信息设备的普及所带来的工作时间的低估。", "index": 8773}
{"en": "In the US, the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the length of the average workweek has held steady at about 34 hours since the advent of the Internet two decades ago.", "zh": "在美国，据劳动统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）估算，平均工作周时长自二十年前互联网出现以来一直保持在34小时左右。", "index": 8774}
{"en": "Yet nothing could be further from the truth: knowledge workers continually toil outside the traditional office, checking their email, updating spreadsheets, writing reports, and engaging in collective brainstorming.", "zh": "但这与现实相去甚远：知识工人日益在传统办公室之外埋头苦干，检查邮件、更新报表、撰写报告、参与集体头脑风暴。", "index": 8775}
{"en": "Indeed, white-collar knowledge workers – that is, most workers in advanced economies – are now tethered to their workplaces essentially 24 hours a day, seven days a week, a reality that is not reflected in the official statistics.", "zh": "事实上，白领知识工人 — — 即发达经济体的大部分工人 — — 如今需要每天24小时、每周七天随时待命，这完全没有体现在官方数字中。", "index": 8776}
{"en": "Productivity growth is not about working longer; it is about generating more output per unit of labor input.", "zh": "生产率并不是工作时间更长；而是关乎单位劳动投入产生更多产出。", "index": 8777}
{"en": "Any undercounting of output pales in comparison with the IT-assisted undercounting of working hours.", "zh": "产出的低估与信息技术所导致的工作时长低估相比不值一提。", "index": 8778}
{"en": "China’s productivity slowdown is probably more benign.", "zh": "中国生产率减速的情况也许不如美国严重。", "index": 8779}
{"en": "It is an outgrowth of the Chinese economy’s nascent structural transformation from capital-intensive manufacturing to labor-intensive services.", "zh": "它是中国经济从资本密集型制造业向劳动密集型服务业的方兴未艾的结构转型的副产品。", "index": 8780}
{"en": "Indeed, it was only in 2013 that services supplanted manufacturing and construction as the economy’s largest sector.", "zh": "事实上，直到2013年，服务业才超过之熬夜和建筑业，成为中国经济最大的部门。", "index": 8781}
{"en": "Now the gap is widening, and that is likely to continue.", "zh": "如今，差距正在扩大，并且这一趋势可能会继续下去。", "index": 8782}
{"en": "With Chinese services requiring about 30% more workers per unit of output than manufacturing and construction, combined, the economy’s structural rebalancing is now shifting growth to China’s lower-productivity services sector.", "zh": "中国服务业每单位产出所需要的工人数量比制造业和建筑业加起来还要多30 % ， 因此中国经济的结构性再平衡正在让增长转移到生产率更低的服务业上。", "index": 8783}
{"en": "China has time before this becomes a problem.", "zh": "在这一转变成为问题之前，中国还有充足的时间。", "index": 8784}
{"en": "As Gordon notes, there have been long-lasting productivity dividends associated with urbanization – a trend that could continue for at least another decade in China.", "zh": "戈登指出，城市化会带来长期持续的生产率红利 — — 在中国，这一红利至少还可以维持十年。", "index": 8785}
{"en": "But there will come a time when this tailwind subsides and China begins to converge on the so-called frontier of the advanced economies.", "zh": "但这股顺风终有停止的一天，而中国也将开始想所谓的发达经济前沿靠拢。", "index": 8786}
{"en": "At that point, China will face the same productivity challenges that confront America and others.", "zh": "到了那一步，中国将面临美国和其他国家所面临的相同的生产率挑战。", "index": 8787}
{"en": "Chinese policymakers’ new focus on innovation-led growth seems to recognize this risk.", "zh": "中国决策者将创新驱动型增长作为新的重点，这表明他们认识到了这一风险。", "index": 8788}
{"en": "Without powerful innovations, sustaining productivity growth will be an uphill battle.", "zh": "没有强大的创新，维持生产率增长将十分困难。", "index": 8789}
{"en": "China’s recent shift to a slower-productivity trajectory is an early warning of what may well be one of its most daunting economic challenges.", "zh": "中国最近的生产率下降趋势是一个早期信号，它将成为中国最艰巨的经济挑战之一。", "index": 8790}
{"en": "There is no escaping the key role that productivity growth plays in any country’s economic performance.", "zh": "生产率增长是一国经济表现的决定性因素，古今中外概莫能外。", "index": 8791}
{"en": "Yet, for advanced economies, periods of sustained rapid productivity growth have been the exception, not the rule.", "zh": "但是，对发达经济体而言，持续高速生产率增长已经成为例外而非常规。", "index": 8792}
{"en": "Recent signs of slowing productivity growth in both the US and China underscore this reality.", "zh": "最近出现的中美两国生产率增长齐降现象凸显出这一现实。", "index": 8793}
{"en": "For a world flirting with secular stagnation, that is disturbing news, to say the least.", "zh": "对于陷入长期停滞的世界来说，这是个令人心烦的消息。", "index": 8794}
{"en": "A New Blueprint for US-China Relations", "zh": "美中关系新蓝图", "index": 8795}
{"en": "NEW YORK – In the coming decades, nothing will matter more for global peace, prosperity, and governance than how the United States and China handle the ongoing shift in their relative power.", "zh": "纽约—在未来几十年中，美国和中国如何应对两国相对实力的不断变化将是影响全球和平、繁荣和治理的最重要的因素。", "index": 8796}
{"en": "In the long term, today’s other pressing challenges – including Russia’s relationship with the West and events in the tumultuous Middle East – will amount almost to sideshows by comparison.", "zh": "从长期看，目前的其他紧迫挑战 — — 包括俄罗斯与西方的关系以及动荡的中东的各种事件 — — 相比之下只能等而下之。", "index": 8797}
{"en": "What makes the Sino-American relationship dangerous is that powerful forces in both countries seem intent on a collision course.", "zh": "让中美关系变得危险的是两国的强大力量似乎决定要来一个碰撞。", "index": 8798}
{"en": "On the Chinese side, under Xi Jinping’s assertive leadership, the government is no longer heeding Deng Xiaoping’s injunction that the country should “hide its strength, bide its time, and never take the lead” in international affairs.", "zh": "中国在习近平的强势领导下，政府不再遵循邓小平在国际事务上“韬光养晦，等待时机，永远不要当头”的遗训。", "index": 8799}
{"en": "It has pursued manifestly expansionist territorial claims, most notably in the South China Sea, and shown a clear determination to resist the indefinite continuation of American dominance in the region.", "zh": "中国开始公然追求扩张主义领土主张，特别是在南海，并明确表现出反对美国在该地区无限期主导的决心。", "index": 8800}
{"en": "The prevailing Chinese mindset is that the US is intent on isolating, containing, and undermining it.", "zh": "中国人普遍认为，美国想要孤立、遏制和破坏中国。", "index": 8801}
{"en": "Unhappily, there is plenty of evidence on the US side to feed that sentiment.", "zh": "令人不快的是，美国方面的诸多证据催生了这一情绪。", "index": 8802}
{"en": "Whatever many American policymakers may be saying in private, their public discourse almost invariably reflects an intention to remain the world’s dominant power – and specifically in Asia – in perpetuity.", "zh": "不管美国决策者私下里怎么说，他们在公开场合几乎无一例外地表示要永远保持美国的世界主宰力 — — 特别是在亚洲。", "index": 8803}
{"en": "The most confrontational recent articulation of this position can be found in a report for the Council on Foreign Relations, by Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, arguing that the central objective of American grand strategy must be “preserving US primacy in the global system,” and urging a series of aggressive economic, political, and military measures to “balance” China.", "zh": "这一立场最近的最具冲突性的表现莫过于罗伯特·布莱克维尔（Robert Blackwill）和阿什利·泰利斯（Ashley Tellis）撰写的外交关系委员会（Council on Foreign Relations）报告。 该报告认为，美国大战略的核心目标必须是“保持美国在全球体系中的超然地位 ， ” 并敦促美国政府采取一系列进攻性经济、政治和军事手段以“制衡”中国。", "index": 8804}
{"en": "They say this is not a “containment” strategy, but it amounts to nothing less.", "zh": "他们说，这不是“遏制”战略，但其程度绝不下于遏制。", "index": 8805}
{"en": "Is there another way to manage the relationship that, while reflecting the reality of these forces and mindsets on both sides, would not risk turning legitimate competition into dangerous confrontation?", "zh": "有没有另一种处理办法，既能反映双方的这些力量和思维的现实，又不会让合理竞争演变为危险的冲突？", "index": 8806}
{"en": "In a new report for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Kevin Rudd, former Australian Prime Minister and now head of the Asia Society Policy Institute, outlines just such a strategy, which he calls “constructive realism”.", "zh": "在哈佛大学肯尼迪学院贝尔福尔科学和国际关系中心（Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs）的一份 新报告中，前澳大利亚总理、现任亚洲社会政策研究所（Asia Society Policy Institute）的陆克文（Kevin Rudd）提出了这样一个战略，他称之为“建设性现实主义 ” 。", "index": 8807}
{"en": "It’s a clunky label, but his analysis and policy prescriptions are compelling.", "zh": "这是一个笨重的主题，但他的分析和政策建议极具说服力。", "index": 8808}
{"en": "The “realist” dimension of Rudd’s argument recognizes that certain areas of disagreement – including Taiwan, territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas, US alliances in Asia, Chinese military modernization, and the legitimacy of China’s political system – will remain intractable for the foreseeable future.", "zh": "陆克文观点的“现实主义”维度承认，分歧的某些方面 — — 包括台湾问题、南海和东海领土纠纷、美国的亚洲盟友、中国军事现代化和中国政治制度合法性等 — — 在可预见的未来仍然非常棘手。", "index": 8809}
{"en": "They will defy easy solutions – and thus will require very careful management.", "zh": "这意味着不可能有容易的解决方案 — — 因此需要非常谨慎的管理。", "index": 8810}
{"en": "The “constructive” part of Rudd’s thesis argues for systematic collaboration – with the US treating China more as an equal – in tackling a series of other difficult issues at bilateral, regional, and global levels.", "zh": "陆克文报告的“建设性”部分提出，在处理双边、地区和全球层面上的一系列其他难题是，可以进行系统协作 — — 美国更应该将中国视为平等的对手。", "index": 8811}
{"en": "Bilaterally, such cooperation might involve an investment treaty, a joint intelligence task force on terrorism, a cyber-security protocol, agreed measures for managing unplanned military incidents, and mutual ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty.", "zh": "就双边情形而论，这类合作可以包括投资条约、联合反恐情报特勤组、网络安全协议、一致的意料外军事事故管理办法、互相批准全面禁止核武器条约（Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty）等。", "index": 8812}
{"en": "On a regional level, Rudd argues, the US and China could work on joint strategies to denuclearize and, ultimately, reunify the Korean Peninsula; tackle the lingering sore of Japan’s war history; harmonize regional trade agreements; and transform the East Asia Summit into a more complete Asia-Pacific Community.", "zh": "在地区层面，陆克文指出，美国和中国可以致力于制定联合战略，以促进朝鲜半岛的去核化以及最终重新统一、处理长期悬而未决的日本战争史问题、协调地区贸易协议、将东亚峰会办成更全面的亚太共同体等。", "index": 8813}
{"en": "Globally, Rudd believes that the joint agenda could focus on combating climate change, revitalizing the G-20, further internationalizing the renminbi; giving China a greater role in the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; and reforming other key international institutions within the UN system.", "zh": "就全球层面而论，陆克文认为中美联合日程应该着重于抵抗气候变化、提振G-20、人民币的进一步国际化、给予中国在国际货币基金组织和世界银行更重要的角色、在联合国体系内改革其他重要国际机构等。", "index": 8814}
{"en": "Some in the West – including veteran China watcher David Shambaugh – remain convinced that this kind of collaborative accommodation will not be necessary, because failures of economic and political management will bring about China’s implosion.", "zh": "一些西方人 — — 包括老牌中国观察家沈大伟（David Shambaugh ） — —仍认为这类协作性适应（collaborative accommodation）并非必须，因为经济和政治管理的失败将让中国从内部崩溃。", "index": 8815}
{"en": "Rudd argues that they are wrong, and that Xi will neither overplay his authoritarian hand nor under-deliver on growth.", "zh": "陆克文认为这些人是错误的，习近平不会过度使用极权措施，也不会让增长大幅降低。", "index": 8816}
{"en": "China’s rise will continue, and the world – including the US – will have to find principled ways of peacefully accommodating it.", "zh": "中国将继续崛起，而世界 — — 包括美国 — — 必须找到和平适应这一变化的原则性方法。", "index": 8817}
{"en": "Rudd’s recommendations are undoubtedly ambitious.", "zh": "陆克文的建议毫无疑问是宏大的。", "index": 8818}
{"en": "But, given his credentials – he is a formidable Chinese linguist and creative policy thinker, with long and close personal relationships with key figures in both the US and China – his argument must be taken seriously.", "zh": "但是，凭他的资质 — — 他精通汉语，又是建设性政策思想家，与美国和中国的重要人物有着长期紧密的个人关系 — — 他的观点必须认真对待。", "index": 8819}
{"en": "Indeed, though Rudd’s tenure as Australia’s prime minister was anything but smooth, his sheer force of intellect is unmatched by that of any public figure with whom I have interacted over the last 30 years.", "zh": "事实上，尽管陆克文的澳大利亚总理生涯一点都不平坦，但他的过人智力是我在过去30年里打过交道的所有公共人物中首屈一指的。", "index": 8820}
{"en": "(Not that this will much help his evident willingness to be drafted as the next UN Secretary-General: in that role the major powers have always preferred bland secretaries to creative generals.)", "zh": "（这未必大大有助于他显而易见的争取成为下一任联合国秘书长的意愿：对于这个职位，主要大国永远更喜欢平庸温和的秘书，而不是有创造力的统帅。 ）", "index": 8821}
{"en": "No American presidential candidate is likely to be comfortable talking about the US as anything other than Number One.", "zh": "美国总统候选人绝不可能踌躇满志地大谈美国不再是第一名。", "index": 8822}
{"en": "But we must hope that in the years ahead we hear less talk of “primacy” and “dominance” and much more about cooperation and collaboration.", "zh": "但是，在未来几年中，但愿我们可以少听到一些“超然 ” 、 “主宰 ” ， 多听到一些合作和协作。", "index": 8823}
{"en": "It is only with such US policies toward China that the world can begin to be confident that the twenty-first century will not, like the last, become a vale of tears.", "zh": "只有这样的美国对华政策可以让世界有信心二十一世纪不会重蹈二十世纪泪流成河的覆辙。", "index": 8824}
{"en": "A Bilateral Foil for America’s Multilateral Dilemma", "zh": "美国多边困境的一块双边遮羞布", "index": 8825}
{"en": "NEW HAVEN – The good news is that the United States and China appear to have backed away from the precipice of a trade war.", "zh": "发自纽黑文 — — 美中两国似乎已经从贸易战的悬崖边上撤了回来，这是个好消息。", "index": 8826}
{"en": "While vague in detail, a May 19 agreement defuses tension and commits to further negotiation.", "zh": "虽然细节披露不多，但5月19日达成的协议消解了紧张局势并承诺展开进一步谈判。", "index": 8827}
{"en": "The bad news is that the framework of negotiations is flawed: A deal with any one country will do little to resolve America’s fundamental economic imbalances that have arisen in an interconnected world.", "zh": "而坏消息则是这一系列谈判的框架是有缺陷的：要想解决美国在一个相互联系的世界中产生的基础经济失衡问题，光靠跟任何一个国家达成协议都是杯水车薪。", "index": 8828}
{"en": "There is a longstanding disconnect between bilateral and multilateral approaches to international economic problems.", "zh": "针对国际经济问题的双边和多边解决方案之间长期存在着脱节。", "index": 8829}
{"en": "In May 1930, some 1,028 of America’s leading academic economists wrote a public letter to US President Herbert Hoover urging him to veto the pending Smoot-Hawley tariff bill.", "zh": "1930年5月，1028名美国知名学术经济学家向时任总统的赫伯特·胡佛（Herbert Hoover）写了一封公开信，敦促他否决尚未通过的斯穆特-霍利（Smoot-Hawley）关税法案。", "index": 8830}
{"en": "Hoover ignored the advice, and the global trade war that followed made a garden-variety depression “great.”", "zh": "胡佛忽视了这一建议，结果随之而来的全球贸易战把一场原本小规模的萧条搞“大”了。", "index": 8831}
{"en": "President Donald Trump has put a comparable spin on what it takes to “make America great again.”", "zh": "而如今特朗普总统对如何实现“让美国再度伟大起来”这句口号的解读方式也与前者异曲同工。", "index": 8832}
{"en": "Politicians have long favored the bilateral perspective, because it simplifies blame: you “solve” problems by targeting a specific country.", "zh": "政客们一直都偏爱双边的观点，因为这可以将矛盾简单化：你通过针对特定国家来“解决”问题。", "index": 8833}
{"en": "By contrast, the multilateral approach appeals to most economists, because it stresses the balance-of-payments distortions that arise from mismatches between saving and investment.", "zh": "相比之下多边手段得到了大多数经济学家的赞同，因为它强调了储蓄和投资之间错配所导致的国际收支扭曲。", "index": 8834}
{"en": "This contrast between the simple and the complex is an obvious and important reason why economists often lose public debates.", "zh": "而这种简单和复杂之间的对比正是经济学家经常在公众辩论中落入下风的明显重要原因。", "index": 8835}
{"en": "The dismal science has never been known for clarity.", "zh": "须知这门晦涩的学科从来都不是以清晰明了著称的。", "index": 8836}
{"en": "Such is the case with the US-China debate.", "zh": "美中之辩正是如此。", "index": 8837}
{"en": "China is an easy political target.", "zh": "中国很容易被锁定为一个政治目标。", "index": 8838}
{"en": "After all, it accounted for 46% of America’s colossal $800 billion merchandise trade gap in 2017.", "zh": "毕竟它在2017年占据了美国8000亿美元巨额商品贸易逆差的46 ％ 。", "index": 8839}
{"en": "Moreover, China has been charged with egregious violations of international rules, ranging from allegations of currency manipulation and state-subsidized dumping of excess capacity to cyber-hacking and forced technology transfer.", "zh": "此外中国还被指控恶意违反国际规则，从货币操纵、国家补贴倾销过剩产能，再到网络黑客行为以及强制技术转让。", "index": 8840}
{"en": "Equally significant, China has lost the battle in the arena of public opinion – chastised by Western policymakers, a few high-profile academics, and others for having failed to live up to the grand bargain struck in 2001, when the country was admitted to the World Trade Organization.", "zh": "同样重要的是，中国在公共舆论领域已经身败名裂 — — 受到西方政策制定者，一些知名学者以及其他认为该国未能兑现2001年加入WTO所承诺条款的人所指责。", "index": 8841}
{"en": "A recent article in Foreign Affairs by two senior officials in the Obama administration says it all: “(T)he liberal international order has failed to lure or bind China as powerfully as expected.”", "zh": "原奥巴马政府的两位高级官员最近在《外交》杂志上发表的一篇文章一语中的 ： “ 自由的国际秩序没未如预期那样有力地诱惑或约束中国。", "index": 8842}
{"en": "As is the case with North Korea, Syria, and Iran, strategic patience has given way to impatience, with the nationalistic Trump administration leading the charge against China.", "zh": "”正如与朝鲜，叙利亚和伊朗那样，战略上的隐忍已经被烦躁所取代，而秉承民族主义的特朗普政府领导正是冲在了攻击中国的最前线。", "index": 8843}
{"en": "The counter-argument from multilateral-focused economists like me rings hollow in this climate.", "zh": "而在这种气氛中，来自像我这类多边主义经济学家的反对论点就显得空洞无聊。", "index": 8844}
{"en": "Tracing outsize current-account and trade deficits to an extraordinary shortfall of US domestic saving – just 1.3% of national income in the fourth quarter of 2017 – counts for little in the arena of popular opinion.", "zh": "将美国巨大的经常账户和贸易逆差归结于国内储蓄的极端短缺 — — 在2017年第四季度仅相当于国民收入的1.3 ％ — —在公共舆论中不受待见。", "index": 8845}
{"en": "Likewise, it doesn’t help when we emphasize that China is merely a large piece of a much bigger multilateral problem: the US had bilateral merchandise trade deficits with 102 countries in 2017.", "zh": "同样，当我们强调中国只是一个更庞大多边问题的其中一个大的板块时也无济于事：美国在2017年可是与102个国家之间存在双边商品贸易逆差。", "index": 8846}
{"en": "Nor does it matter when we point out that correcting for supply-chain distortions – caused by inputs from other countries that enter into Chinese assembly platforms – would reduce the bilateral US-China trade imbalance by 35-40%.", "zh": "我们还指出存在自其他国家输入中国装配平台的原料所引起的供应链扭曲现象，一旦把这种统计手法纠正过来将会令美中贸易失衡数字减少35~40 ％ ， 但应者寥寥。", "index": 8847}
{"en": "Flawed as it may be, the bilateral political case resonates in a US where there is enormous pressure to ease the angst of the country’s beleaguered middle class.", "zh": "尽管可能存在着谬误，但双边政治话题的争论在美国引起了共鸣，因为该国陷入困境的中产阶级急于为自身的焦虑找到发泄口。", "index": 8848}
{"en": "Trade deficits, goes the argument, lead to job losses and wage compression.", "zh": "争论中的说法是贸易赤字导致了失业以及工资缩减。", "index": 8849}
{"en": "And, with the merchandise trade gap hitting 4.2% of GDP in 2017, these pressures have only intensified in the current economic recovery.", "zh": "同时由于2017年的商品贸易缺口已经相当于GDP的4.2 ％ ， 这类压力在当前的经济复苏中只会日益加剧。", "index": 8850}
{"en": "As a result, targeting China has enormous political appeal.", "zh": "因此针对中国就具有巨大的政治吸引力。", "index": 8851}
{"en": "So, what can be made of the May 19 deal?", "zh": "那么5月19日的交易又能敲定些什么呢？", "index": 8852}
{"en": "Beyond a ceasefire in tit-for-tat tariffs, there are few real benefits.", "zh": "这除了叫停针锋相对的关税战之外几乎没有实际好处。", "index": 8853}
{"en": "US negotiators are fixated on targeted reductions of around $200 billion in the bilateral trade imbalance over a two-year time frame.", "zh": "美国谈判代表的全部注意力都集中于在两年时间框架内将双边贸易不平衡削减约2000亿美元的目标上。", "index": 8854}
{"en": "Given the extent of America’s multilateral problem, this is largely a meaningless objective, especially in light of the massive and ill-timed tax cuts and federal expenditure increases that the US has enacted in the last six months.", "zh": "而鉴于美国多边问题的严重程度，这一目标在很大程度上是毫无意义的，尤其是美国在过去六个月出台了大规模且不合时宜的减税以及联邦支出增长。", "index": 8855}
{"en": "Indeed, with budget deficits likely to widen, America’s saving shortfall will only deepen in the years ahead.", "zh": "事实上，由于预算赤字可能继续扩大，美国的储蓄缺口只会在未来几年内进一步加深。", "index": 8856}
{"en": "That points to rising balance-of-payments and multilateral trade deficits, which are impossible to resolve through targeted bilateral actions against a single country.", "zh": "这意味着国际收支和多边贸易的赤字都会增大，而这些赤字也无法通过面向某一国的针对性双边行动来解决。", "index": 8857}
{"en": "Chinese negotiators are more circumspect, resisting numerical deficit targets but committing to the joint objective of “effective measures to substantially reduce” the bilateral imbalance with the US.", "zh": "中方则更加谨慎，一方面抵制任何量化的赤字目标，另一方面又承诺实现“通过有效措施大幅减少”对美双边失衡状况的共同目标。", "index": 8858}
{"en": "China’s vague promise to purchase more American-made agricultural and energy products borrows a page from the “shopping list” approach of its earlier trade missions to the US.", "zh": "中国对于购买更多美国农产品和能源产品的模糊承诺沿袭了其前一段时间赴美贸易代表团的“购物清单”手段。", "index": 8859}
{"en": "Unfortunately, the big-wallet mindset of a deal-hungry China reinforces the US narrative that China is guilty as charged.", "zh": "不幸的是，中国这种渴望大撒金钱来换取交易达成的思维反而让美方更加坐实了那种中国有罪的说法。", "index": 8860}
{"en": "Even if the stars were in perfect alignment and the US was not facing a saving constraint, it stretches credibility to seek a formulaic bilateral solution to America’s multilateral problem.", "zh": "就算中方与美方步调一致且美国能摆脱储蓄的掣肘，但美方寻求用一种公式化的双边方案来解决自身多边问题的做法实际上也滥用了其信誉。", "index": 8861}
{"en": "Since 2000, the largest annual reduction in the US-China merchandise trade imbalance amounted to $41 billion, and that occurred in 2009, during the depths of the Great Recession.", "zh": "自2000年以来美中商品贸易失衡的最大年度缩减量为410亿美元，但这一缩减是发生在2009年大衰退的最严重阶段。", "index": 8862}
{"en": "The goal of achieving back-to-back annual reductions totaling more than double that magnitude is sheer fantasy.", "zh": "可见想要连续两年实现该缩减量两倍以上的目标纯属痴心妄想。", "index": 8863}
{"en": "In the end, any effort to impose a bilateral solution on a multilateral problem will backfire, with ominous consequences for American consumers.", "zh": "最后，任何在多边问题上强加双边解决方案的努力都会适得其反，以致为美国消费者造成不利后果。", "index": 8864}
{"en": "Without addressing the shortfall in domestic saving, the bilateral fix simply moves the deficit from one economy to others.", "zh": "如果不解决国内储蓄不足的问题，双边解决方案只不过是将赤字从一个经济体转移到另一个经济体而已。", "index": 8865}
{"en": "Therein lies the cruelest twist of all.", "zh": "这是最棘手的问题。", "index": 8866}
{"en": "China is America’s low-cost provider of imported consumer goods.", "zh": "中国是美国进口消费品的低成本供应商。", "index": 8867}
{"en": "The Trump deal would shift the Chinese piece of America’s multilateral imbalance to higher-cost imports from elsewhere – the functional equivalent of a tax hike on American families.", "zh": "特朗普的这笔交易将把属于中国的这一部分美国多边失衡问题转移到其他地方的更高成本进口商品上 — — 这形同于给美国家庭的加税。", "index": 8868}
{"en": "As Hoover’s ghost might ask, what’s so great about that?", "zh": "倘若胡佛泉下有知，也会问这种做法究竟有什么“伟大”可言呢？", "index": 8869}
{"en": "America Confronts Old and New Europe", "zh": "美国面对的新旧欧洲", "index": 8870}
{"en": "US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld's petulant remark of last year about \"old and new Europe\" was right for the wrong reasons.", "zh": "美国国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲费尔德去年有关\"新旧欧洲\"的胡言乱语刚好歪打正着。", "index": 8871}
{"en": "He meant it to refer to Europe's divisions, but in May, ten additional states joined the European Union.", "zh": "他本来是指欧洲的分裂，但今年5月，又有10个国家纳入了欧洲联盟。", "index": 8872}
{"en": "The expanded Europe truly forms a new Europe.", "zh": "扩张后的欧洲真的成了新欧洲。", "index": 8873}
{"en": "Should America be nervous?", "zh": "这是否令美国感到不安？", "index": 8874}
{"en": "Fifty-four years after the announcement of the Schuman Plan that began to knit together the economies of France and Germany, the EU now has 25 countries and a population larger than that of the United States.", "zh": "联结法德两国经济的舒曼计划颁布54年后的今天，欧盟已有25个成员国，人口数甚至超过了美国。", "index": 8875}
{"en": "Eight of the new members are former Communist countries that were locked behind the Iron Curtain for nearly half a century.", "zh": "其中8个新成员为前共产党国家，近半个世纪来他们被铁幕重重封锁。", "index": 8876}
{"en": "Their attraction to the Union is a sign of the appeal - the \"soft power\" - of the idea of European unification.", "zh": "它们加入欧盟表明了欧洲统一理念\"软性力量\"所具有的强大生命力。", "index": 8877}
{"en": "Of course, this new Europe faces many problems.", "zh": "勿庸置疑，这个新欧洲面临着巨大的挑战。", "index": 8878}
{"en": "The per capita income of the new countries is less than half of that of the fifteen members they are joining. Concerns have been raised about the influx of cheap labor.", "zh": "新成员的人均生产总值还不到原有15个国家的一半，廉价劳动力的大量涌入也引起了人们不小的担忧。", "index": 8879}
{"en": "But average GDP growth rates in the new members are twice as high as in the original members, and this can provide a welcome stimulus to stagnant labor markets and sluggish economies.", "zh": "但新成员的平均国内产值增长率是原有成员国的两倍，这对停滞的劳动力市场和裹足不前的经济将产生良好的促进作用。", "index": 8880}
{"en": "Political arrangements are somewhat more problematic.", "zh": "政治局势似乎更加问题重重。", "index": 8881}
{"en": "Negotiations are underway to revise a draft EU constitution.", "zh": "各成员国正在谈判，修改欧盟宪法草案。", "index": 8882}
{"en": "Some Europeans worry that the constitution will enable courts to carry the integration process further and faster than public opinion in member states will tolerate.", "zh": "欧洲某些人担心宪法将赋予法院权力，以超出成员国公众所能容忍的最快速度推进欧洲的统一进程。", "index": 8883}
{"en": "Lack of grassroots support might lead to rejection of the constitution in countries like Britain, where referenda have been promised before the new arrangements come into force.", "zh": "缺少来自底层的支持可能导致英国等国否决这一宪法，因为上述当局许诺在新局势成形前举行全民公决。", "index": 8884}
{"en": "Across the Atlantic, most Americans (to the extent they pay attention) regard these changes with general approval.", "zh": "大西洋的另一端，关注此事的美国人多数持赞成态度。", "index": 8885}
{"en": "But some express concern that the new Europe will be defined in opposition to the US.", "zh": "但也有人表达了新欧洲也许会与美国作对的担忧。", "index": 8886}
{"en": "Not only do the remarks of French leaders about recreating a multi-polar world arouse alarm, but recent public opinion polls show a decline in the popularity of the US among Europeans and a desire for more independent policies.", "zh": "不仅法国领导人重建多极世界的讲话令人惊恐，最近的民意测验也表明美国在欧洲的受欢迎程度日益下降，以及欧洲人对独立自主政策越来越强烈的渴望。", "index": 8887}
{"en": "The Iraq War proved costly to American soft power, with the US losing about 30 percentage points of attractiveness on average in Europe, including in countries like Britain, Spain, and Italy, whose governments supported the war.", "zh": "对伊战争让美国的\"软性力量\"付出了昂贵的代价，美国在欧洲国家的平均吸引力下降了约30个百分点，其中包括在英国、西班牙和意大利等支持这场战争的国家。", "index": 8888}
{"en": "The recent photographs of detainees being abused and sexually degraded in Baghdad's Abu Ghraib prison added fuel to the fire.", "zh": "不久前战俘在巴格达阿布格莱布监狱遭受虐待和性侮辱的照片曝光更为这一事件火上浇油。", "index": 8889}
{"en": "Now some American neo-conservatives argue that the US should drop its longstanding support for European integration.", "zh": "如今，美国某些新保守主义者甚至主张撤销长久以来对欧洲统一进程的支持。", "index": 8890}
{"en": "Such a policy change would be a serious mistake.", "zh": "这样的政策变化将犯下严重的错误。", "index": 8891}
{"en": "Not only would it add to anti-American attitudes and fail to accomplish its objectives, but it over-estimates the extent to which the new Europe is being formed in opposition to the US.", "zh": "它不仅助长反美情绪，达不到既定目标，还过高估计了新欧洲形成给美国带来的威胁。", "index": 8892}
{"en": "Whatever the rhetoric in France, for example, the policies and attitudes in countries such as Britain or Poland demonstrate that good trans-Atlantic relations can be maintained.", "zh": "无论法国怎样慷慨陈辞，英国或波兰等国的态度依然表明：良好的泛大西洋关系能够维持下去。", "index": 8893}
{"en": "If anything, the risks of a US-Europe split will be reduced rather than increased by the EU's recent enlargement.", "zh": "如果一定要说影响，那么最近欧洲的东扩将削减而非助长美欧分裂的危险。", "index": 8894}
{"en": "Moreover, there are several objective reasons why the current friction between Europe and the US is unlikely to lead to divorce.", "zh": "此外，若干客观原因使目前的欧美摩擦不会导致分离。", "index": 8895}
{"en": "For one thing, the divisive war in Iraq may turn out to be the last act of the twentieth century rather than a harbinger of the twenty-first.", "zh": "首先，伊拉克的分裂战争也许标志着20世纪的终结，但绝非21世纪的起始。", "index": 8896}
{"en": "American unilateralism is much less in evidence in the world's other hot spots, such as North Korea and Iran, both because of the costs of the war in Iraq and the realities of the situation in those other regions.", "zh": "美国的单边主义在北朝鲜和伊朗等其它热点地区远没有如此明显，这既因为伊拉克战争代价惨重，也是其它地区的现实情况使然。", "index": 8897}
{"en": "Moreover, while the common security threat from the Soviet Union has disappeared, both the US and Europe face a new common threat from radical jihadist terrorism.", "zh": "还有一点。 尽管苏联带来的常规安全威胁已经不复存在，美国和欧洲又面临着激进的吉哈德恐怖运动的共同威胁。", "index": 8898}
{"en": "Neither side of the Atlantic is immune to the threat, despite the efforts of Osama bin Laden to drive a wedge between Europe and America.", "zh": "这种威胁在大西洋两岸同样存在，尽管奥萨马·本·拉登试图在欧美之间挑起矛盾。", "index": 8899}
{"en": "Transnational terrorism can only be confronted by close civilian cooperation such as intelligence sharing, police work across borders, and tracing financial flows. These forms of cooperation survived the divisions over Iraq.", "zh": "只有通过情报共享、跨国警界合作和追踪金融汇兑等密切的民间合作，才有可能战胜跨越国界的恐怖活动。", "index": 8900}
{"en": "Europe and America also share a common structure of economic interests and values.", "zh": "欧洲和美国还拥有共同的经济利益和价值观结构。", "index": 8901}
{"en": "While trade produces frictions in democracies, it also enhances wealth.", "zh": "尽管贸易造成民主国家间的摩擦，但同时也带来巨大的财富。", "index": 8902}
{"en": "If one looks at foreign direct investment, it is clear that the two sides of the Atlantic are closely integrated.", "zh": "看看国外直接投资就知道，大西洋两岸是紧密联系在一起的。", "index": 8903}
{"en": "In terms of values, while some differences exist between Europe and America, at the fundamental level of democracy and human rights, no other two parts of the globe share more.", "zh": "价值观方面，尽管欧洲和美国间存在分歧，但在民主和人权的根本问题上，没有哪两个地区观点如此一致。", "index": 8904}
{"en": "As the writer Robert Kagan concluded in the revision of his book in which he declared Europeans to be from Venus and Americans from Mars, it turns out that Americans seeking democratic legitimization of their policies and self-images cannot escape Europe.", "zh": "正如作家Robert Kagan在其著作修订版中总结的那样，欧洲源于金星而美国源于火星，但最终寻求合法政策及自我形象的美国离不开欧洲的支持。", "index": 8905}
{"en": "In short, it is good for Americans - and for the world - that old and new Europe are becoming one.", "zh": "简而言之，新旧欧洲合而为一对美国和世界都是喜讯。", "index": 8906}
{"en": "We can all benefit from the soft power of an enlarged Europe.", "zh": "我们都将受益于经过扩张的欧洲所拥有的软性力量。", "index": 8907}
{"en": "America’s Baby Bust", "zh": "美国的生育低谷", "index": 8908}
{"en": "LONDON – News that the United States’ fertility rate fell in 2017 to 1.75 has provoked surprise and concern.", "zh": "伦敦—2017 年美国生育率下降到1.75，这则新闻令人惊讶又担心。", "index": 8909}
{"en": "A buoyant US economy in the 1990s and early 2000s was accompanied by fertility rates of 2.00-2.05 children per woman, up from 1.8-1.9 in the 1980s.", "zh": "1990年代末至21世纪初，美国经济繁荣，生育率为每个妇女生2.00—2.05个孩子，而1980年代为1.8—1.9。", "index": 8910}
{"en": "But the increasingly strong economic recovery of the last five years has been accompanied by a declining birth rate.", "zh": "但在过去五年，经济复苏越来越强劲，生育率反而下降。", "index": 8911}
{"en": "That seems to presage a long-term shortage of workers relative to retirees, and severe financial pressures on pension funds and health-care provision.", "zh": "这也许预示着工人将相对退休者出现长期短缺，退休基金和医疗供给将面临沉重财务压力。", "index": 8912}
{"en": "But the assumption that stronger growth and economic confidence must generate higher fertility – with low birth rates reflecting pessimism about the future – is not justified by the evidence.", "zh": "但认为较强劲的增长和经济信息必然产生更高的生育率 — — 而出生率下降反映人们对未来感到悲观 — — 并无证据支持。", "index": 8913}
{"en": "Moreover, fertility rates at around the current US level do not pose severe problems – and bring some benefits.", "zh": "此外，美国当前水平的生育率也不会造成严重问题 — — 还会带来一些好处。", "index": 8914}
{"en": "In all major developed economies, fertility rates fell during the 1960s and 70s, reaching levels below the replacement rate of around 2.05 children per woman.", "zh": "在所有主要发达经济体中，1960和70年代都出现了生育率下降，下降到每位妇女声誉2.05个孩子的替代率以下。", "index": 8915}
{"en": "The US rate reached 1.77 in the late 1970s, compared to 1.8 in Northern Europe and 1.65 in Western Europe.", "zh": "美国在1970年代末的生育率达到过1.77，而北欧为1.8，西欧为1.65。", "index": 8916}
{"en": "And while we cannot be certain, the best expectation is that this shift to fertility rates significantly below the replacement rate will prove permanent, with temporary reversals driven by specific one-off factors.", "zh": "尽管我们不能确定，但想必这一生育率显著低于替代率的变化方向会一直维持下去，当中会有一些因一次性因素导致的反复。", "index": 8917}
{"en": "Some viewed the US return to somewhat higher fertility rates in the 1990s as the consequence of greater economic dynamism and confidence, in contrast to “old Europe.”", "zh": "一些人认为，美国在1990年代恢复了较高的生育率是因为经济活力和信心提高，这与“老欧洲”形成了鲜明对比。", "index": 8918}
{"en": "But throughout the last 30 years, fertility rates for white and black Americans have remained significantly below replacement level, and the three-decade rise and fall of US birth rates is explained primarily by higher Hispanic fertility, reflecting the common phenomenon that first-generation immigrants’ fertility rates are typically similar to those in their poorer countries of origin.", "zh": "但在过去30年终，美国白人和黑人生育率都远低于替代率，三十年来美国生育率的起落主要原因是西班牙裔生育率较高，这反映了一个常有的现象：初代移民生育率往往与较贫穷的来源国相仿。", "index": 8919}
{"en": "The same effect explains why Canada – with immigration skewed toward low-fertility Asian countries of origin – has had a significantly lower fertility rate of around 1.6.", "zh": "同样的效应解释了为何加拿大 — — 移民大多来自低生育率的亚洲国家 — — 生育率一直保持在1.6左右的显著更低的水平。", "index": 8920}
{"en": "But with Latin American fertility rates now in steep decline – Mexico’s is down from 2.9 in 2000 to 2.1 today, and Brazil’s has fallen from 2.5 to 1.7 – the immigrant-induced effect is disappearing, and the US is reverting to a typical fertility rate for a rich developed country.", "zh": "但如今，拉丁美洲生育率大幅下降 — — 墨西哥从2000年的2.9下降到今天的2.1，巴西从2.5下降到1.7 — — 移民导致的效应正在消失，美国正在回归富裕发达国家典型的生育率。", "index": 8921}
{"en": "Absent temporary migration-induced effects, all major developed economies have shifted to fertility rates of 1.2-2.0, with most falling between 1.3 and 1.9.", "zh": "剔除暂时性移民导致的效应，所有主要发达经济体的生育率到演变为1.2—2.0，其中大部分下降到了1.3到1.9之间。", "index": 8922}
{"en": "And while there is some evidence that sudden deep recessions produce temporary fertility dips, followed by rebounds, cross-country comparison provides no evidence of any correlation – positive or negative – between medium-term economic success and precise fertility rates within this range.", "zh": "一些证据表明，突发深度衰退会造成暂时性的生育率下降，随后发生反弹，但跨国比较并未表明中期经济成功与该区间内的具体生育率之间存在相关性 — — 不管是正还是负。", "index": 8923}
{"en": "Canada, with its lower fertility rate, is quite as successful and confident as the US.", "zh": "加拿大生育率较低，但其经济与美国一样成功和自信。", "index": 8924}
{"en": "Strong German growth over the last 20 years has been combined with a fertility rate of 1.4-1.5, well below the 1.98 rate in less successful France.", "zh": "过去20年来强劲的德国增长率带来了1.4—1.5的生育率，远低于不太成功的法国。", "index": 8925}
{"en": "South Korea has maintained economic expansion with a fertility rate of just 1.2-1.3.", "zh": "韩国以仅有1.2—1.3的生育率保持了经济扩张。", "index": 8926}
{"en": "Latin America’s most prosperous economy, Chile, has a fertility rate of 1.76, well below less successful Argentina’s rate of 2.27.", "zh": "拉丁美洲最繁荣的经济体智利的生育率也只有1.76，远低于不太成功的阿根廷的生育率2.27。", "index": 8927}
{"en": "The recent decline in US fertility is therefore unsurprising; and, provided it does not fall to much lower levels, there is no cause for concern.", "zh": "因此，最近美国生育率的下降不足为奇；只要它不跌到显著更低的程度，就没有必要担心。", "index": 8928}
{"en": "Of course, in the long run, a lower fertility rate, combined with rising life expectancy, will produce a higher ratio of those over 65 years old to those conventionally labeled as “working age.”", "zh": "当然，在长期，较低的生育率加上预期寿命的延长，将导致65岁以上人口与传统上的“工作年龄”人口的比率。", "index": 8929}
{"en": "But as people live longer and healthier lives, retirement ages can and should be increased.", "zh": "但由于人们能够活得更长、更健康，退休年龄也能够并且应该提高。", "index": 8930}
{"en": "And in a world of radical automation potential, which threatens low wage growth and rising inequality, a rapidly growing workforce is neither necessary nor beneficial, and a slightly contracting supply of workers may create useful incentives to improve productivity and support real wage growth.", "zh": "在自动化潜力巨大的世界中，很可能发生工资增长低迷、不平等性加剧，迅速增加的工作人口既非必要，也无好处，而略微吃紧的工人供给可能能够成为有用的刺激来改善生产率、支持真实工资增长。", "index": 8931}
{"en": "Notably, fears that robots will take jobs are much less prevalent in Japan and China than in higher-fertility Western countries.", "zh": "引人注目的是，对机器人将抢走饭碗的担心在日本和中国远不及生育率更高的西方国家的普遍。", "index": 8932}
{"en": "In rich developed societies with modern attitudes to the role of women, fertility rates somewhat below replacement levels may thus be both inevitable and broadly welcome.", "zh": "因此，在对妇女的作用持现代看法的富裕发达社会中，生育率总是会低于替代率也是是不可避免的，总体而言也是值得欢迎的。", "index": 8933}
{"en": "But degree matters, and extremely low fertility, such as Japan’s rate of 1.4, will create major problems if permanently maintained.", "zh": "但程度很重要，极低的生育率，比如日本只有1.4，如果长久保持的话，会造成重大问题。", "index": 8934}
{"en": "The United Nations median projection suggests that the total population of North and South America, after growing by another 15-20% between now and 2050, will remain roughly stable for the rest of the twenty-first century.", "zh": "联合国中位预测表明，从现在到2050年，北美和南美总人口将再增加15—20 % ， 此后直到二十一世纪末都将保持稳定。", "index": 8935}
{"en": "By contrast, Japan’s population is projected to fall from 125 million today to around 80 million.", "zh": "相反，日本人口预计会从今天的1.25亿下降到8,000万左右。", "index": 8936}
{"en": "Demographic contraction on that scale will severely stress Japan’s ability to support an aging population.", "zh": "人口规模收缩将严重制约日本支持老龄化人口的能力。", "index": 8937}
{"en": "Intelligent policy should therefore identify and remove any barriers unnecessarily depressing birth rates, such as labor-market discrimination, limited parental leave, or inadequate childcare facilities, which make it difficult for women to combine careers with having as many children as they wish.", "zh": "因此，明智的政策应该辨别并消除一切非必要的抑制出生率的障碍，如劳动力市场歧视、限制育儿假，或儿童看护设施不足等，这些障碍让妇女难以既追求事业，又能想生多少生多少。", "index": 8938}
{"en": "The Scandinavian countries are exemplary in this respect, though fertility rates there have not returned to replacement levels, but only to about 1.75-1.9.", "zh": "斯堪的纳维亚国家是这方面的典范，尽管它们的生育率并没有恢复到替代率，而是只有1.75—1.9。", "index": 8939}
{"en": "Similar policies in the US might marginally increase the fertility rate from today’s 1.75, with a mildly beneficial net effect.", "zh": "美国采取类似政策的话，也许可以将生育率在目前1.75的水平的基础上略微提高，形成比较有利的净结果。", "index": 8940}
{"en": "But the predominant response to America’s recent fertility decline should be to accept it as inevitable and to stop worrying about it.", "zh": "但对于美国近期的生育率下降局面，最主要的应对应该是接受它的不可避免性，停止为它担忧。", "index": 8941}
{"en": "The US Is Exporting Obesity", "zh": "输出肥胖的美国", "index": 8942}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – As US President Donald Trump’s administration throws sharp elbows in trade negotiations and systematically rescinds regulations introduced by President Barack Obama, one casualty is likely to be efforts to fight the global obesity epidemic.", "zh": "发自剑桥 — — 当美国总统特朗普的政府在贸易谈判中上窜下跳，并有计划地撤销奥巴马总统所引入的条例时，其中一个深受其害的事务很可能是抗击全球肥胖症流行现象的工作。", "index": 8943}
{"en": "Left unchecked, rapidly rising obesity rates could slow or even reverse the dramatic gains in health and life expectancy that much of the world has enjoyed over the past few decades.", "zh": "如果不加控制，肥胖率的迅速上升可能会减缓甚至扭转过去几十年来世界大部分地区医疗卫生水平以及预期寿命的巨大进步。", "index": 8944}
{"en": "And by forcing its food culture on countries like Mexico and Canada, the United States is making the problem worse.", "zh": "而通过将其饮食文化强加给墨西哥和加拿大等国，美国正在令问题变得更加严重。", "index": 8945}
{"en": "One of the paradoxes of modern global capitalism is that whereas more than 800 million people in the world do not have enough to eat, an estimated 700 million people (including 100 million children) are obese.", "zh": "现代全球资本主义的悖论之一就是，一方面世界上有超过8亿人食不果腹，另一方面却有大概7亿人（包括1亿儿童）陷入肥胖。", "index": 8946}
{"en": "Of course, the two are not necessarily directly related. A considerable proportion of world hunger occurs in countries suffering from domestic strife or severe government dysfunction.", "zh": "当然这两者不一定直接相关，因为世界上有相当比例的饥饿发生在遭受内乱或政府严重失能的国家。", "index": 8947}
{"en": "The obesity epidemic, however, has a much broader footprint, affecting advanced economies and most emerging markets.", "zh": "与此同时肥胖症的流行范围则更广，遍及发达经济体和大多数新兴市场。", "index": 8948}
{"en": "Although there is some connection between obesity and poverty within countries, it is notable that obesity rates in rich countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada are among the world’s highest.", "zh": "尽管一些国家内部的肥胖与贫困之间存在某种联系，但值得注意的是，美国，英国和加拿大等富裕国家的肥胖率是全世界最高的。", "index": 8949}
{"en": "Recently, the US Centers for Disease Control estimated that a stunning 40% of all Americans are obese (defined as having a body mass index of 30 or higher), a figure that includes 20.6% of adolescents (12-19 years old).", "zh": "美国疾病控制中心最近发布了一份报告，估算美国有40％的人肥胖（定义为身体质量指数BMI为30或更高 ） ， 其中包括20.6％的12~19岁青少年。", "index": 8950}
{"en": "According to the CDC, the average weight of an American woman today is greater than the average weight of an American man in 1960 (166 pounds, or 75 kilos).", "zh": "而据美国疾病控制与预防中心称，当今美国女性的平均体重大于1960年美国男性的平均体重（166磅/75公斤 ） 。", "index": 8951}
{"en": "Back in 1960, the average weight of an American woman was 140 pounds, while the average weight of an American man today is 195 pounds. (Over the same period, the average height of Americans increased by only one inch, or 2.5 centimeters.)", "zh": "在1960年美国女性的平均体重是140磅/63.5公斤，而今天美国男性的平均体重是195磅/88.4公斤（而同期美国人的平均身高只增加了1英寸，即2.5厘米 ） 。", "index": 8952}
{"en": "This same dynamic is playing out worldwide, with obesity rates soaring in Europe, Latin America, and even in China.", "zh": "同样的动态也存在于世界范围内，欧洲，拉丁美洲乃至中国的肥胖率都在上升。", "index": 8953}
{"en": "Although it is difficult to gauge the long-run health consequences, there is abundant evidence that obesity contributes significantly to higher rates of type II diabetes, heart attacks, and certain types of cancer.", "zh": "虽然难以衡量长期的健康后果，但是有充分的证据表明肥胖对II型糖尿病，心脏病和某些类型癌症的发生率有着较高的影响。", "index": 8954}
{"en": "The health costs are staggering, estimated to be close to $200 billion per year in the US alone.", "zh": "因此产生的医疗费用也极为惊人，估计每年接近2000亿美元。", "index": 8955}
{"en": "And with rising childhood obesity rates worldwide portending significantly greater health problems in the future adult population, the costs are likely to rise considerably.", "zh": "随着儿童肥胖率在世界范围内不断上升，从而预示着未来成年人群的健康问题显着增加，医疗成本还有机会大幅走高。", "index": 8956}
{"en": "The causes of obesity are manifold and complex.", "zh": "肥胖的成因是多方面且和复杂的。", "index": 8957}
{"en": "Nevertheless, a growing body of evidence suggests that a culture emphasizing processed food and a generally sedentary lifestyle lies at the center of the problem.", "zh": "然而越来越多的证据表明，注重加工食品和普遍久坐生活方式的文化是问题的核心。", "index": 8958}
{"en": "In emerging markets, rapid urbanization is another important factor, as well as a desire to emulate Western lifestyles.", "zh": "而在新兴市场国家快速城市化则是另一个重要因素，此外还有模仿西方生活方式的意愿。", "index": 8959}
{"en": "Many governments have launched initiatives to improve nutrition education.", "zh": "许多政府已经启动了一些改善营养膳食教育的措施。", "index": 8960}
{"en": "Unfortunately, industry advertising typically dwarfs these efforts, as do US trade lobbyists’ own efforts to push processed and fast food on the rest of the world.", "zh": "但不幸的是，与美国贸易游说者向世界其他地区推广加工和快餐食品的努力一样，行业广告通常也会让这些努力大打折扣。", "index": 8961}
{"en": "It is hard to ignore the fact that Mexico’s adult obesity rate has soared since the adoption in 1993 of the North American Free Trade Agreement.", "zh": "自从1993年签署《北美自由贸易协定》以来墨西哥的成人肥胖率飙升，这是个难以忽略的事实。", "index": 8962}
{"en": "While there are many causes, post-NAFTA direct foreign investment in the processed food industry and a surge in advertising are important contributors.", "zh": "而协定生效后该国加工食品行业引入的直接国外投资以及广告的激增是造成这种情况的重要因素。", "index": 8963}
{"en": "Mexican consumption of sugary beverages nearly tripled between 1993 and 2014, and a new tax on sugary drinks has muted demand only slightly since then.", "zh": "墨西哥在含糖饮料方面的消费量在1993~2014年间几乎增长了两倍，而自那以后的一项针对含糖饮料的新税收仅仅令需求量略有下降。", "index": 8964}
{"en": "The other NAFTA partner, Canada, has similarly experienced a rise in obesity, partly because US imports have led to a sharp decline in the price of fructose.", "zh": "另一个《北美自由贸易协定》合作伙伴 — — 加拿大 — — 同样也经历了肥胖率上升的状况，部分原因是来自美国的出口导致果糖价格急剧下跌。", "index": 8965}
{"en": "It is unfortunate that government regulators have been so slow to try to reverse these trends by, for example, helping to educate the public on the science of nutrition.", "zh": "不幸的是，政府监管机构试图扭转这些趋势（例如向公众传播营养科学）的步伐太过缓慢。", "index": 8966}
{"en": "And, for too long, most government anti-obesity education has focused on mechanically regulating calorie intake, without taking into account that different foods have dramatically different effects on appetite (as David Ludwig, a professor at Harvard Medical School, emphasizes in his excellent new book Always Hungry).", "zh": "而且，长期以来，大多数政府反肥胖教育的重点都集中在刻板地调节卡路里摄入量，而没有考虑不同食物对食欲的显著差异性影响（正如哈佛大学医学院教授大卫·路德维格（David Ludwig）在他的优秀新著《永远饥饿》中指出的那样 ） 。", "index": 8967}
{"en": "Skeptics may point out that nutrition guidelines always seem to be morphing, with last year’s sin food becoming this year’s superfood, and vice versa.", "zh": "怀疑论者可能会指出，营养指南似乎总是在变化，去年的罪恶食品经常摇身一变成了今年的超级食品，反之亦然。", "index": 8968}
{"en": "Though there is some truth to this, the fact is that nutrition research has made significant progress in recent decades.", "zh": "这有点道理，但事实是近几十年来营养学研究已经取得了重大进展。", "index": 8969}
{"en": "The government has other tools at its disposal, besides education, for affecting people’s eating habits.", "zh": "除教育之外，政府还可以动用其他工具来影响人们的饮食习惯。", "index": 8970}
{"en": "They can and should place greater restrictions on advertising to children, as the UK, France, and several other countries have done; obesity in early years can lead to lifelong problems.", "zh": "它们可以且应该像英国，法国和其他几个国家一样对儿童广告加大限制；因为早年的肥胖会引发终生的问题。", "index": 8971}
{"en": "Beyond that, Ludwig, Tufts University’s Dariush Mozaffarian, and I have proposed instituting a tax on processed food, much the same way that tobacco is taxed.", "zh": "除此之外，大卫·路德维格，塔夫茨大学的达瑞许·莫扎法里安（Dariush Mozaffarian）和笔者也提议对加工食品征税，就跟烟草税一样。", "index": 8972}
{"en": "Proceeds from the tax could be used to subsidize healthier alternatives.", "zh": "而收上来的钱可用于补贴更健康的替代食品。", "index": 8973}
{"en": "It is perhaps fantasy to expect the current US administration to consider any kind of anti-obesity strategy while it is still busy dismantling Obama-era policies.", "zh": "期待正忙于废止奥巴马时代政策的现任政府考虑采取任何形式的反肥胖战略或许只是幻想。", "index": 8974}
{"en": "But that is all the more reason why countries entering new trade agreements with the US (for example, the post-Brexit UK, or post-NAFTA Canada) must be wary of any provisions that tie their hands in the war against obesity.", "zh": "正因如此，那些即将与美国签订新贸易协议的国家（例如脱欧后的英国，或废除《北美自由贸易协定》后的加拿大）更要特别警惕美国提出的任何可能束缚了反肥胖工作的条款。", "index": 8975}
{"en": "“America First” Financial Regulation?", "zh": "“美国第一”金融改革？", "index": 8976}
{"en": "LONDON – As US President Trump struggles to staff his administration with sympathizers who will help transpose tweets into policy, the exodus of Obama appointees from the federal government and other agencies continues.", "zh": "伦敦—美国总统特朗普还在为找到同情他的立场、能帮他把推特转化为政策的政府人手，而奥巴马所认命的人则在不断离开联邦政府和其他机构。", "index": 8977}
{"en": "For the financial world, one of the most significant departures was that of Daniel Tarullo, the Federal Reserve governor who has led its work on financial regulation for the last seven years.", "zh": "对金融界来说，意义最重大的离职是在过去七年领导金融监管工作的美联储理事丹尼尔·塔鲁洛（Daniel Tarullo ） 。", "index": 8978}
{"en": "It would be a stretch to say that Tarullo has been universally popular in the banking community.", "zh": "很难说塔鲁洛受到了银行界的一致欢迎。", "index": 8979}
{"en": "He led the charge in arguing for much higher capital ratios, in the United States and elsewhere.", "zh": "他领衔要求大幅提高美国和其他国家的资本率。", "index": 8980}
{"en": "He was a tough negotiator, with a well-tuned instinct for spotting special pleading by financial firms.", "zh": "他是个难产的谈判对手，拥有很强的识破金融企业诡辩术的本能。", "index": 8981}
{"en": "But crocodile tears will be shed in Europe to mark his resignation.", "zh": "但随着他的离职，欧洲将流下鳄鱼的眼泪。", "index": 8982}
{"en": "European banks, and even their regulators, were concerned by his enthusiastic advocacy of even tougher standards in Basel 3.5 (or Basel 4, as bankers like to call it), which would, if implemented in the form favored by the US, require further substantial capital increases for Europe’s banks in particular.", "zh": "欧洲银行，乃至欧洲监管者，担心他坚定推行更严格的巴塞尔3.5标准（或者用银行家的话说，是巴塞尔4.0标准 ） ， 如果这一标准以美国所想要的形式得到实施，就要求进一步大幅增加资本，特别是欧洲银行。", "index": 8983}
{"en": "In his absence, these proposals’ fate is uncertain.", "zh": "他的去职让这一方案的前景蒙上了不确定性。", "index": 8984}
{"en": "But Tarullo has also been an enthusiastic promoter of international regulatory cooperation, with the frequent flyer miles to prove it.", "zh": "但塔鲁洛也热衷于推动国际监管合作，频繁出访推销监管合作。", "index": 8985}
{"en": "For some years, he has chaired the Financial Stability Board’s little-known but important Standing Committee on Supervisory and Regulatory Cooperation.", "zh": "多年来，他一直担任金融稳定委员会（FSB）中鲜为人知但十分重要的监督和监管合作常务委员会主席。", "index": 8986}
{"en": "His commitment to working with colleagues in international bodies like the FSB and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, to reach global regulatory agreements enabling banks to compete on a level playing field, has never been in doubt.", "zh": "他坚定地致力于与FSB和巴塞尔银行监督委员会等国际机构的同事们合作以实现监管协定，从而让所有银行在公平的竞技场上竞争，这一点从未动摇。", "index": 8987}
{"en": "Already, some of those who criticized him most vocally in the past are anxious about his departure.", "zh": "目前，一些过去批评他最卖力的人对他的去职十分焦虑。", "index": 8988}
{"en": "Who will succeed him?", "zh": "谁会接替他？", "index": 8989}
{"en": "The 2010 Dodd-Frank Act created a vice-chair position on the Federal Reserve Board – which has never been filled – to lead the Fed’s work on regulation.", "zh": "2010年多德-弗兰克（Dodd-Frank）法案规定美联储需要设立一个副主席职位 — — 从未有人担任过此职 — — 来领导美联储的监管工作。", "index": 8990}
{"en": "Will that appointee, whom Trump now needs to select, be as committed as Tarullo to an international approach?", "zh": "这一任命 — — 特朗普目前正在选人 — — 能像塔鲁洛那样致力于国际路线吗？", "index": 8991}
{"en": "Or will his principal task be to build a regulatory wall, protecting US banks from global rules?", "zh": "或者，他的主要任务将是构建监管墙，让美国银行不受全球规则管辖？", "index": 8992}
{"en": "We do not yet know the answers to these questions, but Fed watchers were alarmed by a January 31 letter to Fed Chair Janet Yellen from Representative Patrick McHenry, the vice chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services. McHenry did not pull his punches.", "zh": "我们尚不清楚这些问题的答案，但美联储观察者在1月31日看到了令人警惕的信号：众议院金融服务委员会副主席帕特里克·麦克亨利（Patrick McHenry）致信美联储主席耶伦，直白地提出了批评。", "index": 8993}
{"en": "“Despite the clear message delivered by President Donald Trump in prioritizing America’s interest in international negotiations,” McHenry wrote, “it appears that the Federal Reserve continues negotiating international regulatory standards for financial institutions among global bureaucrats in foreign lands without transparency, accountability, or the authority to do so.", "zh": "“尽管特朗普总统明确表示要以美国在国际谈判中的利益为先 ， ” 麦克亨利写道 ， “ 但美联储似乎仍然在国外与全球技术官僚谈判金融机构监管标准，这些谈判不具有透明度和可问责性，美联储也不具备监管谈判权。", "index": 8994}
{"en": "This is unacceptable.”", "zh": "这是不可接受的。 ”", "index": 8995}
{"en": "In her reply of February10, Yellen firmly rebutted McHenry’s arguments.", "zh": "在2月10日的复信中，耶伦坚决反驳了麦克亨利的指责。", "index": 8996}
{"en": "She pointed out that the Fed does indeed have the authority it needs, that the Basel agreements are not binding, and that, in any event, “strong regulatory standards enhance the stability of the US financial system” and promote the competitiveness of financial firms.", "zh": "她指出，美联储绝对拥有它所需要的权力，巴塞尔协定不具有约束力，并且，无论如何 ， “ 强力监管标准能增强美国金融系统的稳定”并促进金融企业的竞争力。", "index": 8997}
{"en": "But that will not be the end of the story.", "zh": "但这绝不是故事的结局。", "index": 8998}
{"en": "The battle lines are now drawn, and McHenry’s letter shows the arguments that will be deployed in Congress by some Republicans close to the president.", "zh": "如今吗，战线已经划定，麦克亨利的信表明了一些接近总统个共和党将会在国会亮出怎样的观点。", "index": 8999}
{"en": "There has always been a strand of thinking in Washington that dislikes foreign entanglements, in this and other areas.", "zh": "华盛顿总是存在一些在这个或那个领域不喜欢与国外串联的声音。", "index": 9000}
{"en": "While Yellen’s arguments are correct, the Fed’s entitlement to participate in international negotiations does not oblige it to do so, and a new appointee might argue that it should not.", "zh": "尽管特伦的观点是正确的，但美联储参与国际谈判的权限并不意味着它必须这样做，而新的任命人选可能会认为美联储不应该这么做。", "index": 9001}
{"en": "Such a reversal would generate tensions within the Fed, and where it would leave the FSB, or indeed the Basel Committee, is unclear.", "zh": "如此反覆将在美联储内部制造对立，而FSB，或者事实上还有巴塞尔委员会，将因此采取什么立场仍不得而知。", "index": 9002}
{"en": "In the early days of the Bank for International Settlements (where the Basel Committee’s secretariat is located) in the 1930s, the US government declined to take a board seat, and the US was represented by JP Morgan.", "zh": "20世纪30年代国际清算银行（巴塞尔委员会秘书处所在地）成立之初，美国政府曾经拒绝接受委员会席位，而美国的代表是JP摩根。", "index": 9003}
{"en": "It is a little hard to see that arrangement working well today.", "zh": "时至今日，显然这一安排运转得十分出色。", "index": 9004}
{"en": "These questions are of more than passing interest in Europe.", "zh": "这些问题对欧洲来说绝非稍纵即逝的利益。", "index": 9005}
{"en": "European capital adequacy directives typically transpose Basel Accords into EU law.", "zh": "欧洲资本充足度指引通常将巴塞尔协议转化为欧盟法律。", "index": 9006}
{"en": "If the Basel process stalls, transatlantic deals, which are the crucial underpinning of Western capital markets, will be far harder to reach.", "zh": "如果巴塞尔进程陷入停顿，作为西方资本市场基础的跨大西洋协议将极其难以达成。", "index": 9007}
{"en": "There is a further complication arising from Brexit.", "zh": "英国退欧进一步增加了复杂性。", "index": 9008}
{"en": "Absent any special deal between the EU27 and the United Kingdom, British and EU regulators will come together in Basel, not in the European Banking Authority.", "zh": "在欧盟27国与英国没有达成任何特殊协议的情况下，英国和欧盟监管者将在巴塞尔协议中进行合作，而不是在欧洲银行监管局（European Banking Authority）进行合作。", "index": 9009}
{"en": "If Basel becomes a talking shop, without the ability to set firm standards, another key link in the chain will be broken, and it will be harder for the UK to argue that if London’s banks meet international standards, they should be granted equal treatment in the EU.", "zh": "如果巴塞尔委员会沦为清谈俱乐部，而不具备制定切实标准的能力，那么这一链条的另一个关键环节将被打破，英国将更加难以主张，当伦敦的银行面临国际标准时应该享受欧盟同等待遇。", "index": 9010}
{"en": "As central bankers bid farewell to the devil they know, financial regulation has entered a period of high uncertainty – and high anxiety for policymakers as they await an announcement from Mar-a-Lago.", "zh": "当央行行长们与他们所熟知的恶魔挥手道别时，金融监管却进入了一个高度不确定的时期 — — 而决策者们则将如坐针毡地在等待马拉拉歌庄园（Mar-a- Lago）的指示。", "index": 9011}
{"en": "No likely Federal Reserve Board candidates have been spotted at poolside, or being interviewed on the golf course, but a decision cannot be far off.", "zh": "美联储理事不可能在游泳池边得到任命，或一边打高尔夫球一边面试，但决定已经不远了。", "index": 9012}
{"en": "Nothing can be taken for granted.", "zh": "没有什么是理所当然的。", "index": 9013}
{"en": "The financial world is holding its collective breath.", "zh": "金融界集体屏息以待。", "index": 9014}
{"en": "Navigating America’s Economic-Policy Shocks", "zh": "应对美国经济政策冲击", "index": 9015}
{"en": "NEW YORK – With a series of tax and trade moves being considered in the United States this year, emerging-market economies are likely to face devaluation pressure and volatility.", "zh": "纽约—今年美国将考虑一系列税收和贸易动作，新兴市场经济体可能会面临贬值压力和波动。", "index": 9016}
{"en": "Three sources of US-fueled economic uncertainty, in particular, will rattle emerging markets in 2017.", "zh": "特别是，三个美国引发的经济不确定性将在2017年影响到新兴市场。", "index": 9017}
{"en": "The first is a border adjustment tax that would give tax breaks to US exporters, but impose a levy – or, equivalently, disallow deductions – on imports to the US.", "zh": "一是边境调节税。 边境调节税将让美国出口商获得税收优惠，但对美国进口商品征税 — — 或取消抵扣，效果相同。", "index": 9018}
{"en": "Both President Donald Trump and the Republican-controlled US Congress have said they favor the scheme, which has a fair chance of being enacted.", "zh": "总统特朗普和共和党控制的国会都表示支持这一方案，它很有可能成为现实。", "index": 9019}
{"en": "Such a tax, or even the anticipation of its adoption, could drive up the US dollar’s exchange rate (which, ironically, would offset, at least partly, the improvement in the US trade imbalance for which the Trump administration may be hoping).", "zh": "这一税种，哪怕是对其实施的预期，都将推高美元汇率（讽刺的是，这至少将部分抵消特朗普政府所期待的美国贸易失衡的改善 ） 。", "index": 9020}
{"en": "The second source of uncertainty is the possibility of more aggressive action on Chinese exports to the US.", "zh": "第二个不确定性是美国可能对中国对美出口采取更加激进的措施。", "index": 9021}
{"en": "The Trump administration has said many times that it will confront China over what it considers unfair trade practices.", "zh": "特朗普政府已经多次表示，将在其所认定的不公平贸易行为上与中国针锋相对。", "index": 9022}
{"en": "Trump has openly mused about imposing a 45% tariff on Chinese imports.", "zh": "特朗普公开呛声要对中国进口品征收45%的关税。", "index": 9023}
{"en": "The introduction of anything close to that would generate downward pressure on the renminbi, given the resulting reduction in demand for Chinese exports.", "zh": "实施任何类似的措施都将导致中国出口需求下降，从而给人民币造成贬值压力。", "index": 9024}
{"en": "But such a move would serve to weaken many other currencies as well.", "zh": "但这一动作也将导致其他许多货币贬值。", "index": 9025}
{"en": "My research with Zhi Wang and Kunfu Zhu reveals that about half of Chinese exports to the US are value-added products manufactured with components from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and other countries.", "zh": "我与王志（Zhi Wang，音译）和朱坤福（Kunfu Zhu，音译）的研究发现，中国对美出口中有大约一半为增值产品，零部件来自韩国、日本、台湾、新加坡等其他经济体。", "index": 9026}
{"en": "Because products from China are often part of integrated global or regional value chains, a US restriction on its imports from China would indirectly, but very quickly, translate into reduced exports of value-added items by other countries in Asia.", "zh": "来自中国的产品通常是一体化的全球或地区价值链的一部分，因此美国限制中国进口将间接（但十分迅速）地转化为亚洲其他经济体增值项目出口的下降。", "index": 9027}
{"en": "This slippage would likely offset any direct increase in these countries’ exports to the US, at least in the short and medium term, because re-organizing production chains is not a trivial matter.", "zh": "这一传导机制很可能抵消这些经济提对美出口的直接增量，至少在短期和中期是如此，因为重新组织生产链绝非易事。", "index": 9028}
{"en": "A third US move that could unsettle emerging markets is faster-than-expected monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.", "zh": "美国可能动摇新兴市场的第三个动作是美联储比预期更快地收紧货币政策。", "index": 9029}
{"en": "A large interest-rate hike would translate into US dollar appreciation, and depreciation of developing-economy currencies.", "zh": "大幅升息将转化为美元升值和发展中经济体货币贬值。", "index": 9030}
{"en": "One exception may be the currencies of commodity exporters.", "zh": "大宗商品出口国货币也许是例外。", "index": 9031}
{"en": "Higher commodity prices, triggered in part by anticipation of increased demand as a result of a boost in US infrastructure spending, could cause these countries’ currencies to strengthen.", "zh": "美国提高基础设施支出可能引起大宗商品需求增加的预期，从而触发价格上涨，进而导致这些国家货币升值。", "index": 9032}
{"en": "Even on that front, though, some commodity exporters – such as Brazil and Russia – may not see much improvement in their exchange rates, given the drag of other forces on their weak economies.", "zh": "但是，即使在这些国家中，某些大宗商品出口国 — — 比如巴西和俄罗斯 — — 也未必能够看到汇率改善，因为它们疲软的经济中还有其他力量在起拖累作用。", "index": 9033}
{"en": "The challenges that US policy changes pose for emerging-market currencies include not only downward pressure, but also greater volatility.", "zh": "美国政策变化给新兴市场货币造成的挑战不仅包括贬值压力，还包括波动加剧。", "index": 9034}
{"en": "What, then, should emerging-market countries do to enhance their resilience in anticipation of the shockwaves?", "zh": "那么，新兴市场国家应该如何加强对预期中的震波的抵抗力？", "index": 9035}
{"en": "One option is to optimize the structure of capital inflows.", "zh": "一个选择是优化资本流入结构。", "index": 9036}
{"en": "A second is to boost the flexibility of exchange rates.", "zh": "其次是提高汇率弹性。", "index": 9037}
{"en": "On the former, as my research with Hui Tong shows, countries that rely heavily on borrowing from foreign banks or international capital markets are more vulnerable to capital flight than countries that depend mainly on foreign direct investment.", "zh": "对于前者，我和童辉（Hui Tong，音译）的研究表明，严重依靠海外银行或国际资本市场借贷的国家比主要依靠外国直接投资（FDI）的国家更容易受到资本外逃的影响。", "index": 9038}
{"en": "Therefore, to guard against exchange-rate volatility or US interest-rate changes, emerging markets should work to improve their business environments to attract FDI, which would reduce their reliance on short-term infusions of “hot money” – and thus lower their vulnerability to abrupt capital-flow reversals.", "zh": "因此，要抵御汇率波动或美国汇率变化，新兴市场应该致力于改善营商环境以吸引FDI，以此降低他们对短期进出的“热钱”的依赖 — — 从而降低突发性资本流逆转对它们所造成的影响。", "index": 9039}
{"en": "As for the second option, allowing nominal exchange-rate flexibility would enable currency values to align with underlying economic fundamentals more quickly.", "zh": "对于后者，允许名义汇率弹性可以让货币价值更快地与经济基本面看齐。", "index": 9040}
{"en": "Such adjustment is especially important for countries with rigid labor markets.", "zh": "这一调整对于劳动力市场僵化的国家尤其重要。", "index": 9041}
{"en": "One danger of fixed exchange rates is the risk of an overvalued or undervalued currency, neither of which is good for economic stability.", "zh": "固定汇率的一大风险是货币出现高估或低估，两者都不利于经济稳定。", "index": 9042}
{"en": "The chance of either scenario is elevated when the forces influencing the equilibrium exchange rate become more volatile.", "zh": "当影响均衡汇率的力量波动加剧时，发生高估或低估的可能性也会大大增加。", "index": 9043}
{"en": "While the shape and timing of future US policies are uncertain, it seems clear that capital-flow management and nominal exchange-rate flexibility amount to good preparation.", "zh": "美国未来政策的面貌和时机仍不确定，但显然，资本流管理和名义汇率弹性都是非常好的准备工作。", "index": 9044}
{"en": "To paraphrase Benjamin Franklin, if developing countries fail to prepare, they will have to prepare to fail.", "zh": "用本杰明·富兰克林的话说，如果发展中国家没有做好准备，它们就必须做准备失败。", "index": 9045}
{"en": "Why Millennials Will Reject Trump", "zh": "为什么千禧一代会拒绝特朗普", "index": 9046}
{"en": "NEW YORK – The key political divide in the United States is not between parties or states; it is between generations.", "zh": "纽约—美国的关键政治分歧不在于党派之间或州之间，而在于代际之间。", "index": 9047}
{"en": "The millennial generation (those aged 18-35) voted heavily against Donald Trump and will form the backbone of resistance to his policies.", "zh": "千禧一代（18—35岁）大多反对特朗普，并将成为反对特朗普政策的骨干力量。", "index": 9048}
{"en": "Older Americans are divided, but Trump’s base lies among those above the age of 45.", "zh": "年长美国人比较分裂，但特朗普的基本盘是45岁以上群体。", "index": 9049}
{"en": "On issue after issue, younger voters will reject Trump, viewing him as a politician of the past, not the future.", "zh": "在问题不断曝出后，年轻选民将拒绝特朗普，将他视为过去而不是未来的政客。", "index": 9050}
{"en": "Of course, these are averages, not absolutes.", "zh": "当然，这是平均而言，不是绝对的。", "index": 9051}
{"en": "Yet the numbers confirm the generational divide.", "zh": "但数字确证了代际分歧。", "index": 9052}
{"en": "According to exit polls, Trump received 53% of the votes of those 45 and older, 42% of those 30-44, and just 37% of voters 18-29.", "zh": "据出口民调，特朗普赢得53%的45岁及以上选民，42%的30—44岁选民，而18—29岁选民他只赢得了37 % 。", "index": 9053}
{"en": "In a 2014 survey, 31% of millennials identified as liberals, compared with 21% of baby boomers (aged 50-68 in the survey) and only 18% of the silent generation (69 and above).", "zh": "在一份2014年的调查中，31%的千禧一代被认为是自由派，而婴儿潮一代（调查中的50—68岁群体）只有21 % ， 静默一代（69岁及以上）只有18 % 。", "index": 9054}
{"en": "The point is not that today’s young liberals will become tomorrow’s older conservatives.", "zh": "个中含义不是今天的年轻自由派会变成明天的年长保守派。", "index": 9055}
{"en": "The millennial generation is far more liberal than the baby boomers and silent generation were in their younger years.", "zh": "千禧一代远比婴儿潮一代和静默一代年轻时更加偏向自由派。", "index": 9056}
{"en": "They are also decidedly less partisan, and will support politicians who address their values and needs, including third-party aspirants.", "zh": "他们的党派色彩也要少得多，他们将支持解决他们的价值观和需要的政客，包括来自第三党的有志者。", "index": 9057}
{"en": "There are at least three big differences in the politics of the young and old.", "zh": "年轻人和年长者的政治学至少有三大不同。", "index": 9058}
{"en": "First, the young are more socially liberal than the older generations.", "zh": "首先，年轻人比年长者更加偏向社会自由。", "index": 9059}
{"en": "For them, America’s growing racial, religious, and sexual plurality is no big deal.", "zh": "对他们来说，美国日益严重的种族、宗教和性多样化不是大问题。", "index": 9060}
{"en": "A diverse society of whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians, and of the native-born and immigrants, is the country they’ve always known, not some dramatic change from the past.", "zh": "由白人、非洲裔美国人、西班牙裔美国人、亚洲人组成的多元化社会，由土生土长的美国人和移民组成的多元化社会才是他们一直熟知的美国，而不是什么与过去的戏剧性变化。", "index": 9061}
{"en": "They accept sexual and gender categories – lesbian, gay, trans, bi, inter, pan, and others – that were essentially taboo for – or unknown to – their grandparents’ (Trump’s) generation.", "zh": "他们接受性和性别分类 — — 女同性恋、男同性恋、变性人、双性人、异装癖、双性恋 — — 这些群体对他们的祖父辈（即特朗普这一代）来说本质上是一种禁忌（或一种未知 ） 。", "index": 9062}
{"en": "Second, the young are facing the unprecedented economic challenges of the information revolution.", "zh": "其次，年轻人正面临前所未有的信息革命经济挑战。", "index": 9063}
{"en": "They are entering the labor market at a time when market returns are rapidly shifting toward capital (robots, artificial intelligence, and smart machines generally) and away from labor.", "zh": "他们进入劳动力市场正逢市场回报迅速流向资本（普遍化的机器人、人工智能和智慧机器 ） ， 流出劳动力。", "index": 9064}
{"en": "The elderly rich, by contrast, are enjoying a stock market boom caused by the same technological revolution.", "zh": "相反，年长的富人享受着由同一场技术革命带来的股市繁荣。", "index": 9065}
{"en": "Trump is peddling cuts in corporate taxes and estate taxes that would further benefit the elderly rich (who are amply represented in Trump’s cabinet), at the expense of larger budget deficits that further burden the young.", "zh": "特朗普正在兜售降低公司税和地产税的方案，这将进一步有利于年长富人（他们占领了特朗普内阁 ） ， 而代价则是预算赤字进一步扩大，年轻人负担进一步沉重。", "index": 9066}
{"en": "Indeed, the young need the opposite policy: higher taxes on the wealth of the older generation in order to finance post-secondary education, job training, renewable-energy infrastructure, and other investments in America’s future.", "zh": "事实上，年轻人需要相反的政策：提高老一代富人的税收，为高等教育、就业培训、可再生能源基础设施和其他事关美国未来的投资融资。", "index": 9067}
{"en": "Third, compared to their parents and grandparents, the young are much more aware of climate change and its threats.", "zh": "第三，与父辈和祖父辈相比，年轻人更加清楚气候变化及其威胁。", "index": 9068}
{"en": "While Trump is enticing the older generation with one last fling with fossil fuels, the young will have none of it.", "zh": "特朗普用化石燃料最后的狂欢麻痹年长一代，而年轻人只能获得一地鸡毛。", "index": 9069}
{"en": "They want clean energy and will fight against the destruction of the Earth that they and their own children will inherit.", "zh": "他们想要清洁能源，也将为他们和他们的孩子们将要继承的被毁坏的地球战斗。", "index": 9070}
{"en": "Part of the generational divide over global warming is due to the sheer ignorance of many older Americans, including Trump, about climate change and its causes.", "zh": "在全球变暖问题上的代际分裂在部分程度上要归因于许多年长美国人，包括特朗普在内，赤裸裸地忽视气候变化及其原因。", "index": 9071}
{"en": "Older Americans didn’t learn about climate change in school.", "zh": "年长美国人在学校里没有学过气候变化。", "index": 9072}
{"en": "They were never introduced to the basic science of greenhouse gases.", "zh": "他们从未获得过关于温室气体的基本科学知识。", "index": 9073}
{"en": "That is why they are ready to put their own short-term financial interests ahead of the dire threats to their grandchildren’s generation.", "zh": "因此，他们欲把自己的短期财务利益置于孙辈致命威胁之上。", "index": 9074}
{"en": "In a June 2015 survey, 60% of 18-29 year-olds said that human activity was causing global warming, compared with just 31% of those 65 and older.", "zh": "在一份2015年6月的调查中，60%的18—29岁群体说人类活动正在导致全球变暖，而65岁及以上群体只有31 % 。", "index": 9075}
{"en": "A survey released in January found that 38% of American survey respondents 65 and older favored fossil-fuel expansion over renewable energy, compared with only 19% of those 18-29.", "zh": "一份1月份公布的调查发现，38%的65岁及以上美国调查受访者支持化石燃料而非可再生能源扩张，18—29岁群体只有19 % 。", "index": 9076}
{"en": "Trump’s economic policies are geared to this older, whiter, native-born America.", "zh": "特朗普的经济政策偏向这一年龄更大、肤色更白、本土出生的美国人群体。", "index": 9077}
{"en": "He favors tax cuts for the older rich, which would burden the young with higher debt.", "zh": "他支持为年长富人减税，而这将给年轻人带来更多的债务负担。", "index": 9078}
{"en": "He is indifferent to the $1 trillion overhang of student debt.", "zh": "他对1万亿美元的累计学生债务漠然无视。", "index": 9079}
{"en": "He is reprising the 1990s NAFTA debate over free trade, rather than facing the far more important twenty-first-century jobs challenge posed by robotics and artificial intelligence.", "zh": "他在三十年后重新翻出20世纪90年代北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）争论的旧账，而不去面对机器人和人工智能所带来的更加重要的二十一世纪就业挑战。", "index": 9080}
{"en": "And he is obsessed with squeezing a few more years of profit out of America’s coal, oil, and gas reserves at the cost of a future environmental catastrophe.", "zh": "他沉迷于让美国煤炭、石油和天然气储备多贡献几年利润，不惜让未来爆发环境灾难。", "index": 9081}
{"en": "One might attribute Trump’s backward-looking mindset to his age.", "zh": "你也许会将特朗普的退步思维归因于他的年龄。", "index": 9082}
{"en": "At 70, Trump is the oldest person ever to become president (Ronald Reagan was slightly younger when he took office in 1981).", "zh": "70岁的特朗普是美国历史上年纪最大的新总统（罗纳德·里根上台是比特朗普稍微年轻一些 ） 。", "index": 9083}
{"en": "Yet age is hardly the sole or even the main factor here.", "zh": "但年龄绝不是唯一的原因，甚至不是主要原因。", "index": 9084}
{"en": "Bernie Sanders, certainly the freshest mind of all the 2016 presidential candidates and the hero of millennial voters, is 75.", "zh": "伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）毫无疑问是2016年总统候选人当中思想最为新潮的，也是千禧一代选民心中的英雄，他已经75岁了。", "index": 9085}
{"en": "The young are enchanted with Pope Francis, 80, because he puts their concerns – whether about poverty, employment difficulties, or vulnerability to global warming – within a moral framework, rather than dismissing them with the crass cynicism of Trump and his ilk.", "zh": "年轻人因为80岁的教皇方济各而欢欣鼓舞，因为他将他们的担忧 — — 不管是贫困、就业困难还是面对全球变暖的脆弱性 — — 纳入道德框架中，而不是像特朗普及其同党那样以粗鲁的犬儒主义等闲视之。", "index": 9086}
{"en": "The main issue here is mindset and political orientation, not chronological age.", "zh": "这里的关键问题是思维和政治导向，而不是年龄。", "index": 9087}
{"en": "Trump has the shortest time horizon (and attention span) of any president in historical memory.", "zh": "特朗普是历史上所有总统中目光最短浅的（也是注意力范围最狭隘的 ） 。", "index": 9088}
{"en": "And he is utterly out of touch with the real challenges facing the young generation as they grapple with new technologies, shifting labor markets, and crushing student debt.", "zh": "他根本不清楚年轻一代在面临新技术、劳动力市场变迁和泰山压顶般的学生债务时所遇到的真正挑战。", "index": 9089}
{"en": "A trade war with Mexico and China, or a tragically misconceived ban on Muslim migrants, will hardly meet their real needs.", "zh": "与墨西哥和中国的贸易战，以及计划不周的悲哀的“禁穆令”根本无法解决他们的真正需要。", "index": 9090}
{"en": "Trump’s political success is a blip, not a turning point.", "zh": "特朗普在政治上的成功只是昙花一现，而不是转折点。", "index": 9091}
{"en": "Today’s millennials, with their future-oriented perspective, will soon dominate American politics.", "zh": "今天的千禧一代，带着他们未来导向的视角，将很快主宰美国政坛。", "index": 9092}
{"en": "America will be multiethnic, socially liberal, climate conscious, and much fairer in sharing the economic benefits of new technology.", "zh": "美国将是多种族的、社会自由的、充分认识气候变化的国家，其新技术的经济收益也将获得更加公平的分享。", "index": 9093}
{"en": "Too many observers remain fixated on the traditional party divides in the US Congress, not on the deeper demographic changes that will soon be decisive.", "zh": "太多观察家仍沉迷于美国国会中的传统党派分歧，而没有关注更深层次的人口变化，而这一变化很快就将成为决定性因素。", "index": 9094}
{"en": "Sanders nearly captured the Democratic nomination (and would likely have triumphed in the general election) with a platform appealing powerfully to the millennials.", "zh": "桑德斯几乎赢得民主党提名（如果赢得提名，他很有可能赢得大选 ） ， 他凭借的是充分吸引千禧一代的平台。", "index": 9095}
{"en": "Their time is coming, most likely with a president they support in 2020.", "zh": "千禧一代的时代正在到来，并极有可能推动他们所支持的总统在2020年上台。", "index": 9096}
{"en": "What Makes America Great", "zh": "是什么让美国伟大", "index": 9097}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – Presidential inaugurations and commencement ceremonies are usually very emotional events.", "zh": "坎布里奇—总统就职典礼和毕业典礼通常都是非常情绪性的事件。", "index": 9098}
{"en": "They are rites of passage that mark both an end and a new beginning in the life of a country or an individual.", "zh": "这类仪式既标志着一个国家或一个个体的一个段落的结束，也标志着新的开始。", "index": 9099}
{"en": "As a professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, I attend our commencement ceremony every year.", "zh": "作为哈佛肯尼迪政府学院教授，我每年都要参加毕业典礼。", "index": 9100}
{"en": "Despite this regularity, I still become emotional as I see my students complete a phase of their lives and contemplate their future.", "zh": "尽管毕业典礼对我来说如此平常，但当我看到学生完成了生命中的一个阶段、开始考虑他们的我来时，我都会感到十分激动。", "index": 9101}
{"en": "One of the highlights of our ceremony is a video in which several professors and public personalities read, line by line, John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address.", "zh": "在我们的典礼上，一个高光时刻是多名教授和公共人物逐字逐句朗读约翰·肯尼迪的就职演说。", "index": 9102}
{"en": "It is a text written 56 years ago, in a different world, where the Cold War, the threat of nuclear Armageddon, and the challenges faced by so many newly independent poor states dominated policymakers’ concerns.", "zh": "这是一份写于56年前的文件，它代表着一个不同的世界，一个冷战、核末日威胁以及大量新晋独立穷国所面临的挑战占据决策者关注焦点的世界。", "index": 9103}
{"en": "And yet, running at under 14 minutes, it never fails to move and inspire everyone in the audience, including that half of the graduates and their families who hail from other countries, near and far.", "zh": "但是，在不到14分钟的时间里，这份就职演说每一次都能打动和鼓励观众席上的每一个人，包括来自世界各地的那一半毕业生和他们的家庭。", "index": 9104}
{"en": "To understand why, it is useful to recall a few of the most famous passages.", "zh": "要想知道为什么会这样，不妨回忆一下这篇名著。", "index": 9105}
{"en": "For starters, there was Kennedy’s vow to defend freedom for its friends and from its enemies: “Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”", "zh": "一开始，肯尼迪宣誓要捍卫自由的朋友，抵御自由的敌人 ： “ 要让每个国家都知道，不管它想要我们好还是坏，我们都将不惜一切代价，承受一切负担，克服一切困难，去支持我们的朋友，对抗任何敌人，以确保自由的生存和成功。 ”", "index": 9106}
{"en": "There was also his commitment to fight poverty: “To those people in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery, we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves, for whatever period is required – not because the communists may be doing it, not because we seek their votes, but because it is right.", "zh": "他还承诺打击贫困 ： “ 住在乡村茅舍、渴望打破重重痛苦的一半地球人：我们承诺竭尽全力帮助他们自力更生，不管需要多长时间 — — 这不是因为共产党也会这么做，不是因为我们需要他们的选票，而是因为这是正确的事。", "index": 9107}
{"en": "If a free society cannot help the many who are poor, it cannot save the few who are rich.”", "zh": "如果自由社会不能帮助众多处于贫困的人，它也无法拯救那极少数富裕的人。 ”", "index": 9108}
{"en": "And this commitment was part and parcel of hemispheric solidarity: “To our sister republics south of our border, we offer a special pledge – to convert our good words into good deeds – in a new alliance for progress – to assist free men and free governments in casting off the chains of poverty.”", "zh": "而这一承诺是西半球团结的基石 ： “ 对于我们边境以南的兄弟共和国来说，我们做出一项特殊承诺 — — 让我们的好话变成好事 — — 在一个新的进步同盟中 — — 帮助自由人和自由政府摆脱贫困的枷锁。 ”", "index": 9109}
{"en": "Finally, there was Kennedy’s ethic of service on behalf of the commonwealth: “And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.", "zh": "最后，公益服务伦理观 ： “ 还有，我的美国同胞：不要问国家能为你做些什么 — — 问问你能为你的国家做些什么。", "index": 9110}
{"en": "My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”", "zh": "我的世界公民同胞：不要问美国会为你做什么，问问我们携起手来能为人的自由做些什么。 ”", "index": 9111}
{"en": "These words’ enduring emotional appeal is rooted in their embrace of a potentially difficult course of action, motivated by a pledge to uphold values shared by citizens of America and the world alike.", "zh": "这些话之所以能够造成经久不衰的情绪号召力，是因为它们提到了也许很困难的行动方针，其背后的推动力是誓死捍卫美国和世界公民的共同价值观。", "index": 9112}
{"en": "It was this approach – one founded on a value-based system of rules, not on individual deals – that enabled the US to create and sustain a coalition of countries that could maintain peace and international cooperation.", "zh": "这一方针 — — 它建立在基于价值观的规则体系之上，而不是建立在个人交易基础上 — — 让美国得以创造和维持一个能够保证和平与和平合作的国家联盟。", "index": 9113}
{"en": "Fast forward to today.", "zh": "快进到现在。", "index": 9114}
{"en": "President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign narrative was based on the assumption that the US has fallen from its former greatness.", "zh": "当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的竞选纲领基于这样的认识：美国已经从昔日的伟大中衰落。", "index": 9115}
{"en": "Jobs have moved to Mexico and China because weak leaders negotiated bad deals.", "zh": "就业流向了墨西哥和中国，因为软弱的领导人谈判了糟糕的协议。", "index": 9116}
{"en": "Immigrants, mostly illegal, have taken the few jobs that remain, killing and raping in their free time.", "zh": "移民，主要是非法移民，则拿走了剩下的少数岗位，而在空余时间尽干些杀人强奸的勾当。", "index": 9117}
{"en": "It follows that the US needs a president who will put America first and knows how to extract the best deals for it at every opportunity, using the country’s full might to advance its interests.", "zh": "因此，美国需要一位把美国放在第一位、知道如何在每一次机会中如何获得最佳协议、用美国的全部力量推进它的利益的总统。", "index": 9118}
{"en": "I doubt that an inaugural address based on these ideas will awe and inspire many audiences at commencement ceremonies, especially where many of those in attendance are citizens of other countries.", "zh": "我怀疑基于这些思想的就职演说是否能够在毕业典礼上震撼和激发大量听众，特别是当许多听众是其他国家的公民的时候。", "index": 9119}
{"en": "Such a speech will encourage no one to “bear any burden” for the sake of any universal principle or challenge, be it human rights or global warming.", "zh": "这样一份演讲无法鼓励任何人为任何普世原则或挑战“承担一切负担 ” ， 不管是人权还是全球变暖。", "index": 9120}
{"en": "It will not exhort us to focus on something bigger than ourselves.", "zh": "它无法劝诫我们风物长宜放眼量。", "index": 9121}
{"en": "Over the course of history, very few powerful states have developed a sense of themselves as being based not on ethnic heritage, but on a set of values that all citizens can live by.", "zh": "在历史进程中，很少有强大的国家能发展出这样一种感受：认为自己不是基于民族文化遗产，而是基于一系列所有公民生存之所系的价值观。", "index": 9122}
{"en": "For the US, it was “life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”", "zh": "对美国来说，这就是“生活、自由和追逐幸福 ” 。", "index": 9123}
{"en": "For the Soviet Union, it was international proletarian solidarity – “workers of the world, unite.”", "zh": "对苏联来说，这是世界无产者大团结 — — “全世界工人联合起来 ” 。", "index": 9124}
{"en": "The European Union is based on universal values and principles that are so attractive that 28 countries have opted to join it; and, Brexit notwithstanding, some half-dozen more are trying to get in.", "zh": "欧盟是基于能够吸引28个国家加入其中的普世价值观和原则；尽管发生了英国退欧，仍有六个国家正在努力加入其中。", "index": 9125}
{"en": "By contrast, a great and powerful Russia or China today – or the Third Reich in its time – may be able to garner the support of its citizens; but such states cannot constitute the basis of an international order that others find appealing, because they are based on a vision of themselves that does not encompass others.", "zh": "相反，今天伟大且强大的俄罗斯或中国 — — 或当年的第三帝国 — — 也许能够赢得本国公民的支持；但这些国家无法构成其他国家向往的国际秩序的基础，因为它们是基于并不包含他者的自身的愿景的。", "index": 9126}
{"en": "The basis of America’s greatness and ability to lead the world stems from universal values that underpin a set of rules that uphold the others’ rights, not an America that tries to base its greatness on a set of deals aimed at getting the better of others.", "zh": "美国的伟大和领导世界的能力的基础来自普世价值观，这些普世价值观又是保护他者权利的规则体系的基础，而不是试图将伟大建立在以从他者身上获得更多好处为目标的交易体系的基础上的美国。", "index": 9127}
{"en": "Such an America will find its ability to lead the world compromised by a shortage of goodwill and an abundance of distrust.", "zh": "这样一个美国将发现，它领导世界的能力受到缺乏商誉和充满不信任的制约。", "index": 9128}
{"en": "Other countries will huddle together to protect themselves from the US bully.", "zh": "其他国家将联合起来抵抗美国的仗势欺人。", "index": 9129}
{"en": "If Trump really wants to make America great again, he should ponder how his inaugural address will sound to a global audience 56 years from now.", "zh": "如果特朗普真的想让美国重新伟大，他应该仔细思考他的就职演说如何面对56年前的全球听众。", "index": 9130}
{"en": "Will it inspire the Class of 2073 the way Kennedy’s address still inspires graduates today?", "zh": "它能否激发2073届毕业生，就像肯尼迪的就职演说激发今天的毕业生那样?", "index": 9131}
{"en": "America Goes from Teacher to Student", "zh": "美国从教师爷变成学生", "index": 9132}
{"en": "Cambridge -- As the United States’ epic financial crisis continues to unfold, one can only wish that US policymakers were half as good at listening to advice from developing countries as they are at giving it.", "zh": "剑桥 - - 当美国庞大的金融危机继续演进之时，人们只能希望美国的决策者们在从发展中国家听取建议时能够有一半像发表建议那样在行就好了。", "index": 9133}
{"en": "Americans don’t seem to realize that their “sub-prime” mortgage meltdown has all too much in common with many previous post-1945 banking crises throughout the world.", "zh": "美国好像并不认识到，他们的“次级”房屋贷款破灭与许多1945年后席卷全球的银行危机有太多的共同之处。", "index": 9134}
{"en": "The silver lining is that there are many highly distinguished current and former policymakers out there, particularly from emerging market countries, who have seen this movie before.", "zh": "令人欣慰的是，有许多特别是来自新兴市场国家的在任和前任杰出的决策者们已经看到了这一局面。", "index": 9135}
{"en": "If US policymakers would only listen, they might get an idea or two about how to deal with financial crises from experts who have lived through them and come out safely on the other side.", "zh": "如果美国的决策者们听取意见的话，他们就会从安然度过金融危机的专家那里知道如何应付它们。", "index": 9136}
{"en": "Unfortunately, the parallel between today’s US crisis and previous financial crises is not mere hyperbole.", "zh": "不幸的是，当今美国危机和以往金融危机的相同之处并不仅仅是夸张的。", "index": 9137}
{"en": "The qualitative parallels are obvious: banks using off-balance loans to finance highly risky ventures, exotic new financial instruments, and excessive exuberance over the promise of new markets.", "zh": "本质上的相同之处是明显的。 银行使用帐外贷款来为极为具有风险的项目融资，别出心裁的金融工具以及对新的市场前景的过度兴奋。", "index": 9138}
{"en": "But there are strong quantitative parallels as well.", "zh": "但是从数量上来说也有很强的共同之处。", "index": 9139}
{"en": "Professor Carmen Reinhart of the University of Maryland and I systematically compared the run-up to the US sub-prime crisis with the run-up to the 19 worst financial crises in the industrialized world over the past 60 years.", "zh": "马里兰大学莱恩哈特教授和我系统地比较了美国次级房贷危机和过去60年整个工业化世界19个最为严重的金融危机之前的状况。", "index": 9140}
{"en": "These include epic crises in the Scandinavian countries, Spain, and Japan, along with lesser events such as the US savings and loan crises of the 1980’s.", "zh": "这些包括斯堪的那维亚国家、西班牙和日本发生的巨大的危机，以及二十世纪八十年代美国储蓄和贷款危机等较为轻微的事件。", "index": 9141}
{"en": "Across virtually all the major indicators – including equity and housing price runs-ups, trade balance deficits, surges in government and household indebtedness, and pre-crisis growth trajectories – red lights are blinking for the US.", "zh": "几乎所有主要标志，包括资产和住房价格攀升、贸易平衡赤字、政府和居民负债猛增以及危机以前的增长轨迹等等都给美国亮出了红灯。", "index": 9142}
{"en": "Simply put, surging capital flows into the US artificially held down interest rates and inflated asset prices, leading to laxity in banking and regulatory standards and, ultimately, to a meltdown.", "zh": "简而言之，汹涌流向美国的资本人为地压低了利率并抬高了资产价格，导致银行和监管标准松懈并且最终造成瓦解。", "index": 9143}
{"en": "When Asia and Latin America had their financial meltdowns in the 1990’s and early 2000’s, they took advice not only from the IMF, but also from a number of small panels composed of eminent people representing diverse backgrounds and experiences.", "zh": "九十年代和二十一世纪之初亚洲和拉美金融危机发生之际，它们不仅从国际货币基金组织、而且也从几个代表了多样背景和经验的著名人士组成的专家小组那里听取建议。", "index": 9144}
{"en": "The US should do the same.", "zh": "美国也应如此。", "index": 9145}
{"en": "The head of the IMF, Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn, could easily select a superb panel from any range of former crisis countries, including Mexico, Brazil, Korea, Turkey, Japan, and Sweden, not to mention Argentina, Russia, Chile, and many others.", "zh": "国际货币基金组织主席、法国人思特劳斯·卡恩可以轻而易举地从任何范围的前危机国家、包括墨西哥、巴西、韩国、土耳其、日本以及瑞典，更不用说阿根廷、俄国、智利以及其他许多国家那里挑选一个超级专家小组。", "index": 9146}
{"en": "Admittedly, the IMF’s panel would have to look past America’s current hypocrisy.", "zh": "应当承认，国际货币基金组织的专家小组将会放过美国目前的伪善。", "index": 9147}
{"en": "The US Treasury strongly encouraged Asia to tighten fiscal policy during its 1990’s crisis.", "zh": "在九十年代的危机中，美国财政部强烈鼓励亚洲紧缩财政政策。", "index": 9148}
{"en": "But today the US Congress and President are tripping over themselves to adopt an ill-advised giant fiscal stimulus package, whose main effects will be to tie the hands of the next president in simplifying the US tax code and closing the budget deficit.", "zh": "但是今天，美国国会和总统却自我矛盾地要采纳一个巨大的、鲁莽的财政刺激一揽子方案，其主要效果就是限制下一任总统简化美国税法以及消除预算赤字的空间。", "index": 9149}
{"en": "Americans firmly told Japan that the only way to clean up its economy was to purge insolvent banks and regenerate the financial system through Schumpeterian “creative destruction.”", "zh": "美国人坚定地告诉日本说，收拾日本经济烂摊子的唯一途径就是清除负债的银行，并且通过熊彼特的“创造性破坏”来重造其金融体系。", "index": 9150}
{"en": "Today, US authorities appear willing to contemplate any measure, no matter how inflationary, to insure that none of its major banks and investment houses fails.", "zh": "如今，美国当局似乎愿意考虑任何措施来确保其主要银行和投资公司没有一家倒闭，而无论其手段具有多大的通胀风险。", "index": 9151}
{"en": "For years, foreign governments complained about American hedge funds, arguing that their non-transparent behavior posed unacceptable risks to stability.", "zh": "多年来，外国政府抱怨美国的对冲基金，说它们不透明的行为对稳定造成不可接受的风险。", "index": 9152}
{"en": "Now, many US politicians are complaining about the transparency of sovereign wealth funds (big government investors mainly from Asia and the Middle East), which are taking shares in trophy American assets such as Citibank and Merrill Lynch.", "zh": "现在，许多美国政界人物则在抱怨国家财富基金(也就是主要来自亚洲和中东的庞大的政府投资者)的透明度问题。 这些基金正在花旗银行和美林公司等让美国骄傲的资产上入股。", "index": 9153}
{"en": "In fact, having countries like Russia and China more vested in the well-being of the US economy would not be a bad thing.", "zh": "实际上，让像俄国和中国那样的国家在美国经济福祉上更多投资并非一件坏事。", "index": 9154}
{"en": "Yes, the IMF ought to develop a voluntary code of conduct for SWF’s, but it should not be used as a weapon to enforce financial protectionism.", "zh": "是的，国际货币基金组织应该给主权财富基金制定一个自愿遵守的行为准则，但是这并不应当用来实行金融保护主义的武器。", "index": 9155}
{"en": "For years, I, along with many others, have complained that emerging markets need greater representation in global financial governance.", "zh": "多年来，我和其他许多人抱怨说新兴市场国家需要在全球金融管理中占有更大的代表比例。", "index": 9156}
{"en": "Today, the issue goes far beyond symbolism.", "zh": "今天，这一问题远远超过了象征主义。", "index": 9157}
{"en": "The US economy is in trouble, and the problems it spins off are unlikely to stop at the US border.", "zh": "美国经济陷入麻烦，而它所带来的问题不大可能局限于美国境内。", "index": 9158}
{"en": "Experts from emerging markets and elsewhere have much to say about dealing with financial crises.", "zh": "来自新兴市场国家和其他地方的专家们对于应付金融危机有很多话要说。", "index": 9159}
{"en": "America should start to listen before it is too late.", "zh": "美国在为时已晚之前应该开始倾听。", "index": 9160}
{"en": "Obamacare and Effective Government", "zh": "奥巴马医保和高效政府", "index": 9161}
{"en": "BERKELEY – When historians look back on the United States’ Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), President Barack Obama’s controversial 2010 health-care reform, we predict that they will not devote much attention to its regulations, its troubled insurance exchanges, or its website’s flawed launch.", "zh": "伯克利—如果有历史学家回顾2010年奥巴马总统颇有争议的医疗改革 — — 美国患者保护和平价医疗法（Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act，ACA ） ， 我们预测他们不会将注意力花在它的规则、它麻烦的保险交易以及它网站的漏洞上。", "index": 9162}
{"en": "Instead, we think that they will focus on how “Obamacare” encouraged a wave of innovation that gradually tamed the spiraling costs of a dysfunctional system, even as millions of previously excluded Americans gained access to health insurance.", "zh": "相反，我们认为历史学家会将注意力集中在“奥巴马医保”如何鼓励了逐渐控制一个功能失调的系统的不断上升的成本的创新上，即使它让数百万此前被排除在外的美国人也获得了医疗保险。", "index": 9163}
{"en": "Innovation is probably the least discussed aspect of health-care reform.", "zh": "创新也许是医疗改革中被讨论最少的话题。", "index": 9164}
{"en": "Yet it is crucial to “bending” the sector’s cost curve, because it enables the delivery of quality health care in cost-effective ways.", "zh": "但它是“弯曲”医疗成本曲线的关键，因为它能够让高品质医疗以高性价比的方式提供。", "index": 9165}
{"en": "Obamacare has provided powerful new incentives for such innovation.", "zh": "奥巴马医保为这类创新提供了有力的新激励。", "index": 9166}
{"en": "From 1980 to 2010, US health-care spending grew almost twice as fast as the economy, rising from 9.2% to 17.4% of GDP.", "zh": "1980—2010年，美国医疗支出速度几乎是经济增长的两倍，占GDP之比从9.2%上升至17.4 % 。", "index": 9167}
{"en": "While many factors contributed to this surge, most experts agree that the single most important cause was a fee-for-service system that rewarded health-care providers for billing as many services as possible, rather than for keeping people healthy and treating their illnesses efficiently.", "zh": "有许多因素促成了这一增幅，但大部分专家都同意，最重要的原因是按服务计费（fee-for-service）制度，该制度鼓励医疗服务提供者尽可能多地提供收费服务，而不是把维持人民健康和有效治疗疾病放在首位。", "index": 9168}
{"en": "The ACA has been changing that, by establishing myriad new incentives to foster efficiency in health-care delivery – for example, by reducing costly and unnecessary hospital infections and readmissions, and by adopting electronic health records.", "zh": "ACA改变了这一切，其办法是建立大量新激励提高医疗服务提供效率 — — 比如降低昂贵且不必要的医院传染和再住院（readmissions ） 、 采取电子病历等。", "index": 9169}
{"en": "Most important, the ACA is providing incentives for the creation of “affordable care organizations,” “bundled payment systems,” and other delivery innovations to encourage better coordination of care, especially for patients with numerous chronic conditions.", "zh": "最重要的是，ACA为建立“平价治疗组织 ” 、 “捆绑支付系统”和其他医疗服务提供创新提供了激励，从而鼓励了更好的治疗合作，特别是对存在多种慢性病的病患而言。", "index": 9170}
{"en": "Such patients are among the 10% who account for an estimated 64% of overall health care costs.", "zh": "这些病患占10 % ， 但付出了约64%的总医疗成本。", "index": 9171}
{"en": "Around the US, providers, insurers, non-profits, and local governments are responding to the ACA’s incentives.", "zh": "放眼美国，提供商、保险商、非营利组织和地方政府都在响应ACA的激励。", "index": 9172}
{"en": "The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (which provide health insurance to pensioners and the poor) has just announced its second round of grants – $665 million to 28 states, three territories, and the District of Columbia – to encourage innovations in health-care delivery.", "zh": "联邦医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心（The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services，为退休者和穷人提供医疗保险）刚刚宣布了第二轮资金分配 — — 28个州、三个领地和哥伦比亚特区获得6.65亿美元 — — 以刺激医疗服务提供创新。", "index": 9173}
{"en": "Of course, it is still too early to declare victory, but Obamacare seems to be working.", "zh": "当然，现在就宣布胜利还为时尚早，但奥巴马医保似乎在起作用。", "index": 9174}
{"en": "According to a recent analysis by the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), about ten million people gained health insurance coverage in 2014 as a result of the ACA – the largest increase in coverage in four decades.", "zh": "根据经济顾问委员会（Council of Economic Advisers，CEA）的最新分析，2014年大约有1,000万人因为ACA而获得医疗保险覆盖 — — 这是四十年来医疗覆盖面增加最大的一年。", "index": 9175}
{"en": "But the real surprise is that growth in health-care spending slowed dramatically from 2010 to 2013, to roughly the same pace as GDP growth.", "zh": "但真正的惊喜是医疗支出增长在2010—2013年出现大幅放缓，已与GDP增长速度相仿。", "index": 9176}
{"en": "This represented a sharp break from the previous half-century; indeed, this period was characterized by the slowest growth in real per capita health-care spending on record.", "zh": "这与此前半个世纪形成了鲜明对比；事实上，这段时期创造了真实人均医疗支出增长最缓慢的记录。", "index": 9177}
{"en": "To be sure, the ACA is only one factor in this promising trend; growth in health-care spending often slows in the wake of an economic downturn.", "zh": "诚然，ACA只是这一令人欣喜的趋势的一个因素；医疗支出增长常常随经济衰退而放缓。", "index": 9178}
{"en": "But Medicare spending, which is not affected by recessions, has slowed along with private health-care spending.", "zh": "但联邦医疗保险支出 — — 该指支出不受衰退影响 — — 也随着私人健康支出一起放缓。", "index": 9179}
{"en": "In a recent study, the CEA concluded that the ACA’s Medicare reforms account for a significant share of the slowdown.", "zh": "在最新研究中，CEA测算出ACA的联邦医疗保险改革贡献了医疗支出增长放缓的很大一部分。", "index": 9180}
{"en": "The ACA is an example of how government can promote innovation to address major societal challenges by providing goals, directions, and incentives, rather than dictating solutions.", "zh": "ACA是一个很好的范例，说明了政府如何能够通过提供目标、方向和激励而不是通过命令式方案促进解决重大社会挑战的创新。", "index": 9181}
{"en": "The government plays a role akin to that of a venture capitalist providing seed money and financial support to foster innovation.", "zh": "政府的作用就像是风险资本家，提供种子资金和金融支持促进创新。", "index": 9182}
{"en": "In this scenario, different players – Medicare and Medicaid, state and local governments, private insurers, physicians, and social entrepreneurs – collaborate to hammer out effective solutions that can be scaled with government revenues.", "zh": "在这一情形中，不同的行为人 — — 联邦医保和联邦医疗补助、州和地方政府、私人保险商、医生和社会企业家 — — 合作打造占政府收入一定比例的有效的解决方案。", "index": 9183}
{"en": "For example, responding to the ACA’s incentives and flexibility, Arkansas and Oregon have launched bold experiments to revamp Medicaid, in part by rewarding health-care providers who deliver better outcomes and keep patients healthier.", "zh": "比如，阿肯色州和俄勒冈州响应ACA的激励和灵活性，启动了大胆的实验性措施改造联邦医疗补助 — — 奖励带来更好结果、让患者更健康的医疗服务提供商就是办法之一。", "index": 9184}
{"en": "In Camden, New Jersey, Jeffrey Brenner, a family doctor, has pioneered strategies to reduce hospital stays by “super-utilizers,” a small share of Medicaid patients who are frequently admitted for expensive acute care.", "zh": "在新泽西州坎登（Camden ） ， 家庭医生杰弗里·布伦纳（Jeffrey Brenner）率先试水通过“超级使用者 ” （ super-utilizers）减少住院的战略。 超级使用者是一小部分联邦医疗补助病患，他们经常使用昂贵的紧急治疗。", "index": 9185}
{"en": "Brenner mapped “hot spots” around Camden, and sought to find out why people in some areas ran up such huge bills.", "zh": "布伦纳绘制了坎登周边的“热点 ” ， 并且试图找出为何某些地区的人医药费会如此巨大。", "index": 9186}
{"en": "The problem was not fraud. It was an absence of coordinated medical care, especially basic primary care, and a lack of attention to people’s underlying risk factors.", "zh": "问题不在于欺诈，而在于缺乏协作医疗特别是基本初级治疗和缺乏对人们基本风险因素的关注。", "index": 9187}
{"en": "The most expensive 1% of patients, those with a tangle of issues, accounted for 30% of Camden’s public health-care spending.", "zh": "最昂贵的1%病患往往一身是病，他们占据了坎登公共医疗支出的30 % 。", "index": 9188}
{"en": "Brenner’s Camden Coalition of Healthcare Providers, founded in 2003, received its first funding from a philanthropy, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and a private insurer, United Health Care.", "zh": "布伦纳的坎登医疗服务提供商联盟（Camden Coalition of Healthcare Providers）成立于2003年，首笔资金来自慈善机构罗伯特·伍德·约翰逊基金会（Robert Wood Johnson Foundation）和私人保险商联合医疗保险公司（United Health Care ） 。", "index": 9189}
{"en": "The remarkable success in Camden has prompted the foundation to fund similar experiments in Boston, Cleveland, Cincinnati, western Michigan, and Humboldt County, California.", "zh": "坎登的巨大成功促使该基金会又资助了波士顿、克利夫兰、辛辛那提、西密歇根和加州洪堡县（Humboldt County）的类似实验。", "index": 9190}
{"en": "Now the government is providing additional support, with grants to similar programs in Maryland, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.", "zh": "如今政府也开始提供更多的支持，马里兰州、科罗拉多州、宾夕法尼亚州和北卡罗来纳州的类似项目都获得了政府拨款。", "index": 9191}
{"en": "Oregon has entered into a pay-for-success bargain with the federal government.", "zh": "俄勒冈州与联邦政府进行了“成功后支付 ” （ pay-for-success）谈判。", "index": 9192}
{"en": "The state will receive $1.9 billion over five years to revamp its Medicaid services along the lines of Camden’s approach.", "zh": "该州将在五年时间中获得19亿美元按照坎登的方法改造联邦医疗补助服务。", "index": 9193}
{"en": "Oregon will get the money only if its per-person Medicaid costs climb substantially more slowly than other states’.", "zh": "俄勒冈州只有在人均联邦医疗补助成本增速显著低于其他州的情况下才能获得这笔资金。", "index": 9194}
{"en": "At the moment, Oregon is on track.", "zh": "现在，俄勒冈州正在路上。", "index": 9195}
{"en": "Arkansas has moved 20 different “episodes” of health-care delivery (including hip and knee replacements, pregnancy, colonoscopies, asthma, and congestive heart failure) from fee-for-service to paying for quality outcomes.", "zh": "阿肯色州将20个不同的医疗服务提供“项目 ” （ 包括臀部和膝盖替换术、怀孕、结肠镜检查、哮喘和充血性心力衰竭）从按服务计费变为按高质量结果支付。", "index": 9196}
{"en": "The results so far are promising – not just by reining in costs, but also by better aligning service delivery with best practices.", "zh": "到目前为止，效果很好 — — 不但降低了成本，也更好地将服务提供和最佳实践结合起来。", "index": 9197}
{"en": "The government can spur innovation by offering incentives that tap many different players’ strengths.", "zh": "政府可以通过提供集中多个行动方的优势的激励刺激创新。", "index": 9198}
{"en": "In health care, that means taking advantage of the purchasing clout of Medicare and Medicaid, the risk-taking of social entrepreneurs and philanthropists, and the dynamism of markets and private business.", "zh": "在医疗领域，这意味着利用联邦医疗保险和联邦医疗补助的购买力、社会企业家和慈善机构的风险承担力和市场和私人企业的活力。", "index": 9199}
{"en": "And health-care reform is just one example in which government can deliver what the public wants by setting goals, encouraging creativity, and providing the resources to scale up what works.", "zh": "而医疗改革只是政府可以通过设置目标、鼓励创新、提供扩大有用方案的资源带来公众想要的东西的一个例子。", "index": 9200}
{"en": "Twenty-five years from now, we hope that historians look back on the ACA as the start of a new era of public-private collaboration to develop innovative solutions to complex social problems – and thus to restore trust in government itself.", "zh": "我们希望，二十五年后的历史学家回顾ACA时会把它当做一个新时代的开端，在这个时代中，公共和私人部门合作开发复杂社会问题的创新性解决办法 — — 从而也重塑了政府本身的信任。", "index": 9201}
{"en": "America’s Hidden Debt", "zh": "美国的隐藏负债", "index": 9202}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – Former US Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence H. Summers recently quipped that, “Fiscal stimulus is like a drug with tolerance effects; to keep growth constant, deficits have to keep getting larger.”", "zh": "发自华盛顿特区 — — 前美国财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯（Lawrence H. Summers）最近打趣说 : “ 财政刺激就像一种存在耐受性的药物；为了保持持续增长，就必须得让赤字不断扩大。", "index": 9203}
{"en": "People like Summers worry about deficits because they doubt that the money the government is borrowing is being spent in ways that will push the long-term growth of GDP above that of the debt.", "zh": "”像萨默斯这样的人之所以为赤字忧心，是因为他们怀疑政府借来的钱是否最终被用到了可以推动GDP长期增长超过债务增长的手段上。", "index": 9204}
{"en": "Unless the mix of spending changes, the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to grow, foretelling disaster.", "zh": "除非支出组合发生变化，否则债务相对GDP的比率将继续增长，直到灾难降临。", "index": 9205}
{"en": "Others do not share such concerns.", "zh": "其他人却对此不以为然。", "index": 9206}
{"en": "On the political left, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, for example, argues that for “a country that looks like the United States, a debt crisis is fundamentally not possible.”", "zh": "例如在左派诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）就认为对于一个“美国这样的国家来说，债务危机根本不可能发生。", "index": 9207}
{"en": "On the right, John Tamny, Forbes’ political economy editor, says, “Ignore the endless talk of doom, budget deficits really don’t matter.”", "zh": "”而隶属于右派的《福布斯》杂志政治经济编辑约翰·塔姆尼（John Tamny）也觉得应该“把那些没完没了的危言耸听抛诸脑后，预算赤字委实无关紧要。 ”", "index": 9208}
{"en": "But while judgments differ about the sustainability of US government debt, they both accept the standard measure of it as accurate.", "zh": "但尽管各方对美国政府债务可持续性的判断存在分歧，但他们都接受衡量这一指标的标准方法的准确性。", "index": 9209}
{"en": "This is a mistake, and possibly a catastrophic one.", "zh": "这就是一个错误，甚至可能是灾难性的。", "index": 9210}
{"en": "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently reported that the federal budget deficit in the first ten months of this fiscal year was $116 billion higher than it was at the same time last year.", "zh": "美国国会预算办公室最近报告称，本财年前十个月的联邦预算赤字较去年同期高出1160亿美元。", "index": 9211}
{"en": "The CBO is now projecting that the annual deficit will reach $1 trillion by 2020.", "zh": "国会预算办公室目前预计到2020年时年度赤字将达1万亿美元。", "index": 9212}
{"en": "This is worrying, but it does not reflect the harsh truth. The annual deficit almost certainly surpassed $1 trillion last year.", "zh": "这虽然令人担忧，但却并未反映出严酷的事实：去年的年度赤字几乎已经肯定超过了1万亿美元。", "index": 9213}
{"en": "To understand why, think of America as a home with a leaky roof.", "zh": "要理解这一点，可以把美国想象成一个天花漏水的屋子。", "index": 9214}
{"en": "If you wanted to sell that home to a buyer who is financing the purchase with a mortgage, federal real-estate law would require you to get an appraisal, which would show that the roof needs repairs.", "zh": "如果你想将房屋出售给通过抵押贷款来筹措房款的买家，联邦房地产法会要求你先对房屋进行评估，而评估结果肯定会写明屋顶需要维修。", "index": 9215}
{"en": "In this scenario, your maintenance delays cannot be ignored.", "zh": "在这种情况下你无法拖延维护。", "index": 9216}
{"en": "The law requires that you disclose and pay for the hidden costs of repairing the roof. Otherwise, you are stealing from the buyer.", "zh": "法律会要求你披露并支付修复屋顶的隐性费用，否则的话你就是在盗取买家的利益。", "index": 9217}
{"en": "True, unlike the mortgage on your balance sheet, you may not regard roof maintenance as a current liability.", "zh": "的确，与资产负债表上的抵押贷款不同，你可能不会将屋顶维护费用视为当期负债。", "index": 9218}
{"en": "But putting it off doesn’t make it disappear.", "zh": "但是推迟这笔支出并不会让问题消失。", "index": 9219}
{"en": "It is still a real debt – just one that has gone unaccounted for.", "zh": "它仍然是一笔实实在在的债务 — — 只是暂时未计入而已。", "index": 9220}
{"en": "The federal government also has debt that has not been accounted for, and which one doesn’t often hear about.", "zh": "联邦政府也有一些人们往往都不会留意到的未计入债务。", "index": 9221}
{"en": "The debt that has been accounted for is the $15.6 trillion held by the public in the form of US Treasury bonds. The debts that have not been accounted for include the deferred costs of maintenance on roads, water systems, and 54,560 structurally deficient bridges, as well as the yet-to-be-built low-carbon energy systems necessary to mitigate the catastrophic effects of climate change.", "zh": "已计入的债务是公众以美国国债形式持有的15.6万亿美元；而未计入的债务包括维护道路，供水系统和54560个存在结构缺陷桥梁的延期成本，以及减轻气候灾难性影响所必需的、尚未建成的低碳能源系统。", "index": 9222}
{"en": "And these are just two broad examples.", "zh": "但这些只是其中两个影响比较广泛的例子而已。", "index": 9223}
{"en": "So, just how much hidden US debt is there?", "zh": "那么美国究竟有多少隐藏债务呢？", "index": 9224}
{"en": "At this point, we must rely on rough estimates.", "zh": "在这方面我们只依靠粗略的估计。", "index": 9225}
{"en": "For example, according to a 2016 report from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), upgrading the country’s crumbling infrastructure would cost $5.2 trillion.", "zh": "例如，根据美国土木工程师协会2016年发布的一份报告，升级该国摇摇欲坠的基础设施需要耗资5.2万亿美元。", "index": 9226}
{"en": "And, according to a 2014 International Energy Agency (IEA) report and our own calculations based on the US share of global CO2 emissions, transitioning to a clean-energy system will cost an additional $6.6 trillion.", "zh": "根据国际能源署2014年发表的报告和我们根据美国在全球二氧化碳排放量中所占的份额进行的计算，向清洁能源系统转换将额外花费6.6万亿美元。", "index": 9227}
{"en": "All told, that is $11.8 trillion in unaccounted-for non-inflation-adjusted liabilities.", "zh": "加起来就是11.8万亿包含通胀因素的未入账负债。", "index": 9228}
{"en": "To be sure, these debts are not solely federal liabilities.", "zh": "可以肯定的是，这些债务不仅仅是联邦债务。", "index": 9229}
{"en": "In the past, state and local governments were responsible for most infrastructure and climate costs.", "zh": "过去大多数基础设施和气候成本都由州和地方政府负责。", "index": 9230}
{"en": "However, already burdened with more than $3 trillion of municipal debt, state governments are overwhelmed by the scale of their deferred-maintenance liabilities and the only recently documented costs of climate change abatement.", "zh": "然而已经承受超过3万亿美元市政债务的各州政府被其大规模延后支付设施维护负债以及最近才列入记录的缓解气候变化成本压得喘不过气来。", "index": 9231}
{"en": "However, because climate change and infrastructure security are national issues, rather than local, the federal government is ultimately responsible for that $11.8 trillion in infrastructure- and environment-related debts.", "zh": "但由于气候变化和基础设施安全是国家而不是地方事务，这11.8万亿美元的基础设施和环境相关债务最终还是要由联邦政府负责。", "index": 9232}
{"en": "They are America’s national “leaky roof.”", "zh": "它们就是美国这个国家的“漏水屋顶 ” 。", "index": 9233}
{"en": "That figure increases every year, because as bridges continue to weaken, it costs even more to fix them; and as sea levels and temperatures continue to rise, and as forest fires become more severe, it costs more to mitigate the damage.", "zh": "这个数字会逐年增加，因为随着桥梁结构的不断瓦解，修复它们的成本只会更高；随着海平面和气温的持续升高，森林火灾的加剧，降低灾害损失的成本也会增加。", "index": 9234}
{"en": "In fact, between 2012 and 2016, the ASCE increased its estimate of America’s annual infrastructure-investment gap by $221 billion – about $55 billion per year.", "zh": "事实上，在2012~2016年间，美国土木工程师协会将美国年度基础设施投资缺口预测数提高了2210亿美元 — — 每年增加约550亿美元。", "index": 9235}
{"en": "And between 2012 and 2014, the IEA increased its estimated cost of moving to a clean-energy system by roughly $270 billion per year.", "zh": "而从2012年到2014年，国际能源署将向清洁能源系统转换的估计成本每年调高大约2700亿美元。", "index": 9236}
{"en": "Together, the unaccounted-for inflation-adjusted deficit amounted to $345 billion – just from delaying needed infrastructure and climate abatement spending.", "zh": "加起来排除通胀因素后的赤字总额达3450亿美元 — — 仅仅是因为推迟了所需的基础设施和气候减排支出。", "index": 9237}
{"en": "The 2017 US federal deficit was $665 billion, reflecting the amount by which debt that is actually accounted for increased.", "zh": "2017年美国联邦赤字为6650亿美元，这反映了实际得到核算的债务增加额。", "index": 9238}
{"en": "If infrastructure and climate debt that is not accounted for were to be included, the all-in deficit in 2017 would have been over $1 trillion.", "zh": "但如果将未计入的基础设施和气候债务纳入其中，2017年的全部赤字将超过1万亿美元。", "index": 9239}
{"en": "Yes, these are back-of-the-envelope calculations, but they point to an urgent question: Why isn’t the US counting its hidden debts?", "zh": "这虽然都是些粗略的计算，但它们指出了一个紧迫的问题：为什么美国去不计算其隐藏债务？", "index": 9240}
{"en": "The short answer is that the law doesn’t require it.", "zh": "简略的回答是法律并不要求这样做。", "index": 9241}
{"en": "The federal “debt limit” was never a firm construct, and under pressure it became a squishy “ceiling suspension” that allows the government to borrow as much as it wants.", "zh": "联邦“债务上限”从来都不是一个固定架构，并且在压力之下它已经变成了一种软性的“天花悬挂系统”好让政府可以尽可能多地借钱。", "index": 9242}
{"en": "Meanwhile, a congressional rule that was intended to ensure fiscal responsibility by prohibiting deficit increases above $1.5 trillion within a ten-year window has become an accounting trick to escape responsibility for the 11th year and beyond.", "zh": "与此同时，一项原本旨在通过禁止赤字在十年内增加超过1.5万亿美元以确保政府能负起财政责任的国会裁定已沦为逃避第11年及随后年份责任的会计技巧。", "index": 9243}
{"en": "But just as we are stealing from the homebuyer if we do not disclose and pay for our leaky roof, we are stealing from future generations of Americans when we ignore the full extent of government liabilities.", "zh": "但正如隐瞒和拖延维修漏水屋顶形同于从购房者处偷钱那样，当我们忽视政府在全部范畴内的负债时，实际上就是打劫未来的美国人。", "index": 9244}
{"en": "Until all debt is counted, we cannot even begin to know whether fiscal policies are having positive or negative effects on future growth.", "zh": "除非所有债务都被记录在案，否则我们甚至无法了解财政政策究竟会对未来增长产生正面还是负面影响。", "index": 9245}
{"en": "America’s Second Chance with India", "zh": "美国和印度的第二次机会", "index": 9246}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, DC, in June garnered little public attention outside of India.", "zh": "纽约—印度总理莫迪6月份的访美之旅在印度之外基本没有引起什么关注。", "index": 9247}
{"en": "Yet diplomats and military professionals in Asia and beyond were certainly watching closely.", "zh": "但亚洲外交官和军事专业人士显然在密切关注。", "index": 9248}
{"en": "For good reason: the rapprochement between the world’s two most populous democracies could shape the world’s future.", "zh": "其来有自：世界上人口最多的两个民主国家之间的关系缓和可以决定世界的未来。", "index": 9249}
{"en": "It is worth noting that in his address to the US Congress, Modi invoked the word “partner” or “partnership” no fewer than 15 times.", "zh": "值得注意的是，在美国国会演讲中，莫迪至少15次提到了“伙伴”一词。", "index": 9250}
{"en": "The official joint statement released by the two governments described India as a “Major Defense Partner” of the United States, eligible for advanced technologies with military applications.", "zh": "两国政府发布的正式联合申明将印度描述为美国的“主要防务伙伴 ” ， 有资格获得军用先进技术。", "index": 9251}
{"en": "The relationship between India and the US has evolved from one of cool distance to strategic proximity in a generation – lightning fast for geopolitics.", "zh": "在一代人的时间里，印美关系从冷眼保持距离演变为战略性靠近 — — 就地缘政治而言，发展不可不谓快。", "index": 9252}
{"en": "The factors underlying this shift merit attention, for many of them are likely to bring the two countries even closer.", "zh": "这一转变背后的推动因素值得关注，因为其中许多因素有望让两国更加紧密。", "index": 9253}
{"en": "The Cold War’s end was a significant part of the bilateral rapprochement, because it eliminated the possibility of India’s continued association with the Soviet Union, as well as its rationale for embracing non-alignment.", "zh": "冷战的结束是印美关系缓和的一个重要部分，因为印度不再需要与苏联打交道，不结盟的理由也不再成立。", "index": 9254}
{"en": "A second factor is Pakistan.", "zh": "第二个因素是巴基斯坦。", "index": 9255}
{"en": "For a long time, the US pursued an even-handed policy toward South Asia’s two most strategically important countries.", "zh": "长期以来，美国对这两个在战略上最重要的南亚国家采取的是一碗水端平的政策。", "index": 9256}
{"en": "Nonetheless, during most of the Cold War, Pakistan was seen as a friendly country, whereas its great rival, India, was viewed as difficult.", "zh": "尽管如此，在冷战的大部分时间里，巴基斯坦被视为友邦，而它的劲敌印度被视为一个难点。", "index": 9257}
{"en": "This view was reinforced when Pakistan became the essential conduit of weapons to Afghans fighting the Soviet occupation of their country.", "zh": "巴基斯坦成为向阿富汗输送武器助其抵抗苏联侵略的重要通道后，这一观点进一步得到了强化。", "index": 9258}
{"en": "But the bond between the US and Pakistan weakened when Soviet forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989.", "zh": "但1989年苏军撤出阿富汗后，美巴关系有所削弱。", "index": 9259}
{"en": "Relations suffered further from Pakistan’s development of nuclear weapons, its provision of sanctuary and support to the Taliban, and its willingness to extend hospitality to some of the world’s most dangerous terrorists, including Osama bin Laden.", "zh": "巴基斯坦发展核武器、为塔利班提供庇护和支持并且愿意给包括本·拉登在内的全球最危险恐怖分子提供藏身之所，这进一步影响了美巴关系。", "index": 9260}
{"en": "As a result, US ties to India were no longer constrained by fear of complications in Pakistan.", "zh": "结果，美国建设对印关系不再受到顾虑巴基斯坦不满的约束。", "index": 9261}
{"en": "China is also animating the improvement in India-US ties.", "zh": "中国也在推动印美关系的改善。", "index": 9262}
{"en": "The motivation is far more fundamental than the fact that India and China still have an unresolved border.", "zh": "其背后的动机远比中印边境问题仍有待解决这一事实更具根本性。", "index": 9263}
{"en": "China’s rise has created a strong incentive for countries with a stake in Asia to increase their cooperation with the US, as well as with one another, to ensure that they can stand up to China’s political, military, and economic might.", "zh": "中国的崛起强烈地刺激了在亚洲有利益所在的国家加强与美国以及彼此之间的合作，以确保能够抵御中国的政治。 军事和经济力量。", "index": 9264}
{"en": "Domestic politics also loom large in the relationship’s development – on both sides.", "zh": "国内政治也严重影响着印美关系的发展 — — 对两国都是如此。", "index": 9265}
{"en": "The decline of India’s Congress party reduced the influence of the political force most associated with maintaining distance from the US.", "zh": "印度国大党的衰落降低了最支持与美国保持距离的政治力量的影响力。", "index": 9266}
{"en": "Meanwhile, there are now more than three million Indian-Americans, and, as with many other immigrant populations, they have become ever more prominent and powerful.", "zh": "与此同时，如今美国有三百万印度裔公民，与许多其他移民群体一样，他们变得更加重要和强大。", "index": 9267}
{"en": "Supporting closer ties with India has become a rare example of bipartisan US foreign policy, and it can be expected to continue regardless of which party controls the White House or Congress after this November’s elections.", "zh": "支持加强对印关系已成为美国罕见的跨党派外交政策之���，并且可以期待这一状况将继续保持，不管今年11月哪个党入主白宫。", "index": 9268}
{"en": "The breakthrough in bilateral ties came a decade ago, when the US lifted sanctions introduced in response to India’s nuclear weapons program and then signed an accord paving the way for US involvement in India’s civil nuclear energy program.", "zh": "双边关系的突破始于十年前，当时，美国取消了因印度核武器计划而实施的制裁，随后签署了一份协议，为美国参与印度民用核能计划扫清了道路。", "index": 9269}
{"en": "India, unlike both Pakistan and North Korea, is seen as a responsible nuclear power, a country the US now supports for membership in various groups designed to stem the further spread of nuclear materials and weapons.", "zh": "和巴基斯坦和朝鲜不同，印度被视为负责任的核力量，目前美国支持印度加入各种为防止核材料和武器进一步扩散而设立的组织。", "index": 9270}
{"en": "Economic ties are also growing, along with India’s economy.", "zh": "随着印度经济的增长，印美经济关系也在加强。", "index": 9271}
{"en": "Bilateral trade has increased to more than $100 billion a year.", "zh": "双边贸易已增加到每年1,000亿美元以上。", "index": 9272}
{"en": "High-level visits have become commonplace.", "zh": "高层访问已经稀松平常。", "index": 9273}
{"en": "Closer economic ties and large-scale collaboration on clean energy are a high priority.", "zh": "更紧密的经济关系和清洁能源领域的大规模合作是重中之重。", "index": 9274}
{"en": "One can also predict increased cooperation between the two countries’ military and intelligence establishments.", "zh": "可以预期，两国军事和情报机构之间的合作也将增加。", "index": 9275}
{"en": "Indeed, joint efforts to keep the Indian Ocean open and safe are already a reality.", "zh": "事实上，保持印度洋开放和安全的联合行动已是既成事实。", "index": 9276}
{"en": "The US and India need not be formal allies for their relationship to have the desired effect on Chinese strategic calculations.", "zh": "美国和印度正式结盟就可以对中国的战略意图形成想要的影响。", "index": 9277}
{"en": "Challenges remain, of course.", "zh": "当然，挑战仍然存在。", "index": 9278}
{"en": "Bureaucracy, corruption, and poor infrastructure continue to hold back India’s economy.", "zh": "官僚主义、腐败和拙劣的基础设施仍然制约着印度经济。", "index": 9279}
{"en": "Indian leaders must also be careful not to do or say things that could alienate the country’s large Muslim minority.", "zh": "印度领导任还必须保持谨慎，不可做出或说出可能梳理该国为数巨大的穆斯林少数群体的内容。", "index": 9280}
{"en": "And they must still ensure that close ties with the US are not simply the policy of one prime minister or party.", "zh": "他们还必须确保与美国的紧密关系不仅仅是一届总理或一党的政策。", "index": 9281}
{"en": "This means getting the Congress party fully on board and overcoming the resistance of career officials to new ways of thinking and acting.", "zh": "这意味着要让国大党充分参与进来，并克服事务官对新思维和行为的抵触。", "index": 9282}
{"en": "It is difficult to overlook the irony in much of this.", "zh": "不难看出，其中不乏讽刺之处。", "index": 9283}
{"en": "More than a half-century ago, in the early years of the Cold War, many in Washington saw India as a potential model of non-Communist political and economic development.", "zh": "五十多年前，在冷战初期，华盛顿有许多人将印度视为非共产主义政治和经济发展的前在榜样。", "index": 9284}
{"en": "For many reasons, things did not work out that way, as India became economically statist, for a time politically authoritarian, and geopolitically closer to the USSR than US officials liked.", "zh": "出于众多原因，事情并未朝这个方向发展，印度在经济上演变为国家主义，政治上一度成为极权主义，地缘政治上比美国官员所期待的更加接近于苏联。", "index": 9285}
{"en": "Now, however, India is emerging as a successful example of a market-oriented democracy with close ties to the US.", "zh": "但是，如今，印度正在崛起成为与美国关系密切的市场经济民主的成功范例。", "index": 9286}
{"en": "Second chances are rare in life, but both India and the US may be getting just that.", "zh": "生活中很少能获得第二次机会，而印度和美国可能恰恰获得了这一机会。", "index": 9287}
{"en": "America Keeping Haiti Down", "zh": "美国在海地的伏都教人权政策", "index": 9288}
{"en": "The IDB, the world's largest regional development bank, works in Latin America and the Caribbean purportedly to “contribute to the acceleration of economic and social development.”", "zh": "作为世界上最大的区域开发银行，泛美开发银行在拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区的工作据称是“为加快经济和社会发展作贡献 ” 。", "index": 9289}
{"en": "Its actions in Haiti, however, have severely undermined those goals.", "zh": "但是，它在海地的行为已经严重损害了这些宗旨。", "index": 9290}
{"en": "Roughly $54 million in IDB loans for water infrastructure in Haiti, home to literally the world’s worst water, offered a proven path to preventing deadly water-borne diseases. Designed to assist in fulfilling the right to water in the most impoverished nation in the Western Hemisphere, these loans and the lives they could have saved instead have become pawns in a deliberate political power play.", "zh": "泛美开发银行为了改善海地的饮用水基础设施 — — 毫不夸张地说，海地的饮用水状况是世界上最糟糕的 — — 提供的大约5400万美元贷款，为防止致命的水致疾病提供了可行的途径。 这些贷款原计划用于帮助世界西半球上最贫穷的国家实现其饮用水权利，它们及其可以挽救的生命不应该在一个深思熟虑的政治权力游戏中成为牺牲品。", "index": 9291}
{"en": "In 2001, US officials threatened to use their influence to stop previously approved IDB funding unless Haiti’s majority political party submitted to political demands to accept a particular apportionment of seats in a Haitian electoral oversight body.", "zh": "2001年，美国官员威胁道，除非海地的主要政党接受一家海地选举观察机构中席位分摊的特别的政治要求，否则他们就会使用他们的影响力来阻止事先已经获得批准的泛美开发银行对海地的资助。", "index": 9292}
{"en": "Soon after, at the behest of the US, instead of disbursing the loans as planned, the IDB and its members took the unprecedented step of implicitly adding conditions to require political action by Haiti before the funds would be released.", "zh": "不久之后，在美国的要求之下，泛美开发银行及其成员没有按原计划发放贷款，而是采取了从没采取过的措施，在发放这些资金之前暗示增加海地采取政治行动的条件。", "index": 9293}
{"en": "These actions violated the IDB’s own charter, which strictly prohibits the Bank and its members from interfering in the internal political affairs of member states.", "zh": "这些行为违反了泛美开发银行自己的章程，该章程严格禁止银行及其成员干涉成员国的内部政治事务。", "index": 9294}
{"en": "Internal emails reveal that a US legal counselor inside the IDB proposed to the US Treasury Department that, though the loans faced no legitimate technical obstacles, the US could effectively block them by “slowing” the process.", "zh": "一些内部电子邮件显示，一位泛美开发银行内的美国律师向美国财政部提出如下建议：虽然这些贷款不存在合法性技术障碍，但是美国可以通过“延缓”贷款进程来有效地阻止贷款的发放。", "index": 9295}
{"en": "Indeed, by requesting further review of the loans, Haiti would have to make scheduled payments before the funds were even disbursed.", "zh": "确实，通过要求对贷款进行进一步的审查，海地将不得不在贷款发放之前就进行定期还款。", "index": 9296}
{"en": "“While this is not a ‘bullet-proof’ way to stop IDB disbursements,” the counsellor wrote, “it certainly will put a few more large rocks in the road.”", "zh": "“虽然这不是阻止泛美开发银行贷款发放的‘完美无缺’的方法 ” ， 该律师写道 ， “ 但是，它肯定会给贷款的发放设置更多的障碍 ” 。", "index": 9297}
{"en": "In 2001, then-US Ambassador to Haiti Dean Curran publicly and explicitly linked the withholding of IDB loans to the demand that Haiti’s political parties reach a compromise that America wanted.", "zh": "在2001年，时任美国驻海地大使的迪安·科兰（Dean Curran）曾公开明确地将泛美开发银行贷款的扣留和海地的政党达成美国希望的妥协的要求联系起来。", "index": 9298}
{"en": "These tactics worked.", "zh": "这些策略奏效了。", "index": 9299}
{"en": "Deprived of funds that had already been committed and expected, Haiti fell into arrears on money owed for loan repayment, triggering IDB policies that prevented the Bank from releasing loans.", "zh": "由于被剥夺了已经被承诺和期待的资金，海地没有支付偿还借款的资金，而这会使泛美开发银行启动阻止银行贷款发放的银行政策。", "index": 9300}
{"en": "In subsequent years, the US employed additional delaying tactics, working with the IDB to move the goal posts whenever Haiti appeared to be meeting their demands.", "zh": "在后来的几年里，美国又使用了其他的延迟策略，这些策略就是在海地似乎快要满足其要求的时候，和泛美开发银行一起改变目标标杆。", "index": 9301}
{"en": "The results have been devastating.", "zh": "这些策略的后果是毁灭性的。", "index": 9302}
{"en": "The town of Port-de-Paix, slotted ten years ago by the IDB as the first project site due to its particularly deplorable water situation, has yet to see the implementation of any water projects.", "zh": "和平港市因为其悲惨的饮用水状况，在十年前就被泛美开发银行跟踪作为第一个项目实施地点，但是，到目前为止还没有看到任何饮用水项目的实施。", "index": 9303}
{"en": "A study conducted by Zanmi Lasante, Partners In Health, the Robert F. Kennedy Memorial Center for Human Rights, and New York University’s Center for Human Rights and Global Justice found no functioning public water sources in the city.", "zh": "由健康伙伴（Zanmi Lasante ） 、 罗伯特·弗·肯尼迪人权纪念中心以及纽约大学人权和全球正义中心进行的研究发现，在和平港市没有可供饮用的公共水源。", "index": 9304}
{"en": "Researchers found three-quarters of water sources in the city contained high levels of coliform bacteria, a key indicator of contamination with fecal matter.", "zh": "研究人员发现，该市3/4的水源都含有很高水平的大肠杆细菌，这是水源被排泄物污染的一个重要指标。", "index": 9305}
{"en": "A frightening 15% of households reported symptoms likely related to typhoid.", "zh": "而且，还有令人震惊的高达15%的家庭报告了可能和伤寒症有关的症状。", "index": 9306}
{"en": "If the US and other member states join the IDB and take on the responsibility to improve conditions in the Americas, they cannot then use their membership to undermine the basic rights of the people they claim to serve simply to advance their own political agenda.", "zh": "如果美国和其他成员国加入泛美开发银行，承担起改善美洲各国状况的责任，那么，他们就不能仅仅为了推进自己的政治议程，而利用其成员资格去破坏他们声称要去服务的人们的基本权利，", "index": 9307}
{"en": "The IDB and the US government must take responsibility for their actions and implement the necessary transparency mechanisms to ensure that such abuses do not recur.  Congressional inquiries and annual reviews of the Treasury Department by the Government Accountability Office could provide the oversight necessary to prevent future political misuse of the IDB and its funds.", "zh": "泛美开发银行和美国政府必须为他们的行为承担责任，并实施必要的透明度机制来保证这样的权利滥用不再发生。 美国国会质询和政府责任办公室对财政部的年度审查可以为防止以后对泛美开发银行及其资金的政治滥用提供必要的监督。", "index": 9308}
{"en": "The people of Haiti, as well as US taxpayers, deserve a system that makes public the status of IDB loans and projects in Haiti in order to ensure that the US and IDB member states uphold their commitments to development and human rights.", "zh": "为了保证美国和泛美开发银行成员国实践他们对发展和人权的承诺，海地人民和美国的纳税人应该拥有一个将泛美开发银行贷款以及在海地的项目的状况向公众公开的制度。", "index": 9309}
{"en": "The Myth of Sound Fundamentals", "zh": "基本面可靠的神话", "index": 9310}
{"en": "NEW HAVEN – The spin is all too predictable.", "zh": "纽黑文—起伏太容易预测了。", "index": 9311}
{"en": "With the US stock market clawing its way back from the sharp correction of early February, the mindless mantra of the great bull market has returned.", "zh": "随着美国股市从2月初的大幅调整中逐步恢复，无脑大牛市的诅咒也开始回归。", "index": 9312}
{"en": "The recent correction is now being characterized as a fleeting aberration – a volatility shock – in what is still deemed to be a very accommodating investment climate.", "zh": "如今，最近的回调被定义为短暂的偏离 — — 一次波动性冲击 — — 投资环境仍然十分适宜。", "index": 9313}
{"en": "After all, the argument goes, economic fundamentals – not just in the United States, but worldwide – haven’t been this good in a long, long time.", "zh": "毕竟，这一观点说，经济基本面 — — 不仅仅是美国，也包括全世界 — — 很久没有那么好了。", "index": 9314}
{"en": "But are the fundamentals really that sound?", "zh": "但基本面真的如此可靠吗？", "index": 9315}
{"en": "For a US economy that has a razor-thin cushion of saving, nothing could be further from the truth.", "zh": "对储蓄缓冲薄得可怜的美国经济来说，没有比这离得更远的真相了。", "index": 9316}
{"en": "America’s net national saving rate – the sum of saving by businesses, households, and the government sector – stood at just 2.1% of national income in the third quarter of 2017. That is only one-third the 6.3% average that prevailed in the final three decades of the twentieth century.", "zh": "2017年三季度，美国的净国民储蓄率 — — 企业、家庭和政府部门储蓄之和 — — 只有国民收入的2.1 % ， 仅仅相当于二十世纪结束前三十年平均水平6.3%的三分之一。", "index": 9317}
{"en": "It is important to think about saving in “net” terms, which excludes the depreciation of obsolete or worn-out capacity in order to assess how much the economy is putting aside to fund the expansion of productive capacity.", "zh": "看到储蓄要以“净值”思维，这一点很重要。 这意味着要在评估经济留出多少资金用于产能扩张时，要将已经报废或废弃的产能的折旧剔除。", "index": 9318}
{"en": "Net saving represents today’s investment in the future, and the bottom line for America is that it is saving next to nothing.", "zh": "净储蓄代表了今天对未来的投资，而美国的计算结果是储蓄接近于零。", "index": 9319}
{"en": "Alas, the story doesn’t end there.", "zh": "可惜，故事到这里还没有结束。", "index": 9320}
{"en": "To finance consumption and growth, the US borrows surplus saving from abroad to compensate for the domestic shortfall.", "zh": "为了给消费和增长融资，美国向海外借入盈余储蓄来补足国内短缺。", "index": 9321}
{"en": "All that borrowing implies a large balance-of-payments deficit with the rest of the world, which spawns an equally large trade deficit.", "zh": "所有这些借款带来了巨大的国际收支赤字，进而产生同样巨大的贸易赤字。", "index": 9322}
{"en": "While President Donald Trump’s administration is hardly responsible for this sad state of affairs, its policies are about to make a tough situation far worse.", "zh": "特朗普总统的政府不需要为这个悲哀的状态负责，但其采取的政策会大大加剧困境。", "index": 9323}
{"en": "Under the guise of tax reform, late last year Trump signed legislation that will increase the federal budget deficit by $1.5 trillion over the next decade.", "zh": "去年，特朗普打着税收改革的旗号签署了将让美国联邦预算赤字在未来十年增加1.5亿美元的立法。", "index": 9324}
{"en": "And now the US Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has upped the ante by another $300 billion in the latest deal to avert a government shutdown.", "zh": "而如今，美国国用它的大智慧，在为了避免政府关门的人达成的最新协议中，将这个数字再度提高了3,000亿美元。", "index": 9325}
{"en": "Never mind that deficit spending makes no sense when the economy is nearing full employment: this sharp widening of the federal deficit is enough, by itself, to push the already-low net national saving rate toward zero. And it’s not just the government’s red ink that is so troublesome.", "zh": "别在意在经济接近充分就业的时候，赤字支出根本毫无意义：如此巨大的联邦预算增幅本身已足以让已然很低的净国民储蓄率向零靠拢。", "index": 9326}
{"en": "The personal saving rate fell to 2.4% of disposable (after-tax) income in December 2017, the lowest in 12 years and only about a quarter of the 9.3% average that prevailed over the final three decades of the twentieth century.", "zh": "2017年12月，个人储蓄率下降至可支配（税后）收入的2.4 % ， 为12年来的最低值，只有二十世纪最后三十年平均水平9.3%的四分之一左右。", "index": 9327}
{"en": "As domestic saving plunges, the US has two options – a reduction in investment and the economic growth it supports, or increased borrowing of surplus saving from abroad.", "zh": "随着国内储蓄的暴跌，美国有两个选择 — — 降低投资及其所支撑的经济增长，或增加从海外借入的盈余储蓄。", "index": 9328}
{"en": "Over the past 35 years, America has consistently opted for the latter, running balance-of-payments deficits every year since 1982 (with a minor exception in 1991, reflecting foreign contributions for US military expenses in the Gulf War).", "zh": "在过去35年中，美国一直选择了后者，1982年以来几乎每年都出现国际收支赤字（只有1991年是微不足道的例外，原因是海湾战争期间外国帮助美国贡献了不少军事支出 ） 。", "index": 9329}
{"en": "With these deficits, of course, come equally chronic trade deficits with a broad cross-section of America’s foreign partners.", "zh": "当然，与这些赤字一同到来的是同样根深蒂固的对美国各大贸易伙伴的贸易赤字。", "index": 9330}
{"en": "Astonishingly, in 2017, the US ran trade deficits with 102 countries.", "zh": "2017年，美国对令人咋舌的102个国家存在贸易赤字。", "index": 9331}
{"en": "The multilateral foreign-trade deficits of a saving-short US economy set the stage for perhaps the most egregious policy blunder being committed by the Trump administration: a shift toward protectionism.", "zh": "储蓄短缺的美国经济的多边对外贸易赤字为也许是特朗普政府所犯下的最严重的政策错误 — — 转向保护主义创造了条件。", "index": 9332}
{"en": "Further compression of an already-weak domestic saving position spells growing current-account and trade deficits – a fundamental axiom of macroeconomics that the US never seems to appreciate.", "zh": "进一步压缩已然孱弱不堪的国内储蓄头寸意味着经常项目和贸易赤字继续增加 — — 这可不是美国一贯欣赏的宏观经济学的基本准则。", "index": 9333}
{"en": "Attempting to solve a multilateral imbalance with bilateral tariffs directed mainly at China, such as those just imposed on solar panels and washing machines in January, doesn’t add up.", "zh": "1月份，特朗普政府对中国产太阳能面板和洗衣机征收关税，用诸如此类主要针对中国的双边措施来解决多边失衡问题无济于事。", "index": 9334}
{"en": "And, given the growing likelihood of additional trade barriers – as suggested by the US Commerce Department’s recent recommendations of high tariffs on aluminum and steel – the combination of protectionism and ever-widening trade imbalances becomes all the more problematic for a US economy set to become even more dependent on foreign capital.", "zh": "此外，由于出现新贸易壁垒的可能性不断提高 — — 比如美国商务部最近建议对铝和钢铁征收高额关税 — — 保护主义和不断扩大的贸易失衡的组合对于越来越依赖外国资本的美国经济来说将更成问题。", "index": 9335}
{"en": "Far from sound, the fundamentals of a saving-short US economy look shakier than ever.", "zh": "储蓄短缺的美国经济的基本面绝对算不上可靠，倒是比以往任何时候都要岌岌可危。", "index": 9336}
{"en": "Lacking a cushion of solid support from income generation, the lack of saving also leaves the US far more beholden to fickle asset markets than might otherwise be the case.", "zh": "由于缺少来自收入创造的可靠支撑缓冲，储蓄不足还让美国更加容易受到变幻无常的资产价格的影响。", "index": 9337}
{"en": "That’s especially true of American consumers who have relied on appreciation of equity holdings and home values to support over-extended lifestyles.", "zh": "对于依靠股票和房价上涨支持与收入不匹配的生活方式的美国消费者来说尤其如此。", "index": 9338}
{"en": "It is also the case for the US Federal Reserve, which has turned to unconventional monetary policies to support the real economy via so-called wealth effects.", "zh": "对美联储来说也是如此，它依靠非常规货币政策，通过所谓的财富效应来支持实体经济。", "index": 9339}
{"en": "And, of course, foreign investors are acutely sensitive to relative returns on assets – the US versus other markets – as well as the translation of those returns into their home currencies.", "zh": "当然，外国投资者对相对资产回报 — — 美国相对其他市场 — — 以及将这些回报换回本币的汇率非常敏感。", "index": 9340}
{"en": "Driven by the momentum of trends in employment, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and corporate earnings, the case for sound fundamentals plays like a broken record during periods of financial market volatility.", "zh": "受就业、工业产出、消费者情绪和公司收益的趋势动能的推动，基本面可靠的观点就像是在金融市场波动时期被打破的记录。", "index": 9341}
{"en": "But momentum and fundamentals are two very different things.", "zh": "但动能和基本面是截然不同的两件事。", "index": 9342}
{"en": "Momentum can be fleeting, especially for a saving-short US economy that is consuming the seed corn of future prosperity.", "zh": "动能随时会消失得无影无踪，对储蓄短缺、寅吃卯粮的美国经济来说尤其如此。", "index": 9343}
{"en": "With dysfunctional policies pointing to a further compression of saving in the years ahead, the myth of sound US fundamentals has never rung more hollow.", "zh": "适得其反的政策准备在未来几年进一步压缩储蓄，照此看，美国基本面可靠的神话简直像是一个恐怖故事。", "index": 9344}
{"en": "America’s Midterm Elections Turn Menacing", "zh": "美国的中期选举变得异常凶险", "index": 9345}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – With the approach of this year’s midterm elections in the United States, domestic terrorism is starting to dominate the political landscape.", "zh": "华盛顿 — — 随着年内美国中期选举的临近，国内恐怖主义开始主导政治格局。", "index": 9346}
{"en": "First, barely two weeks before Election Day, an angry supporter of US President Donald Trump began sending 14 bombs to prominent Democrats and others whom Trump has frequently attacked.", "zh": "首先，就在选举日前不到两周，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一位愤怒的支持者开始向著名的民主党人和其他特朗普经常攻击的人士邮寄14枚炸弹。", "index": 9347}
{"en": "(None of the bombs exploded.)", "zh": "（这些炸弹都没有爆炸。", "index": 9348}
{"en": "Then things became much worse, with the murder, on a Saturday, of 11 Jews in a Pittsburgh synagogue.", "zh": "）而后局面更是进一步恶化，星期六，在匹兹堡的一座犹太教堂里，11名犹太人被谋杀。", "index": 9349}
{"en": "Today, a polarized and anxious American public finds itself with a president totally unsuited to, and not very interested in, comforting the nation, much less trying to lead it away from the hate and deadly partisanship that he has stoked.", "zh": "今天，严重焦虑和两极分化的美国民众发现自己的总统对抚慰民众不感兴趣，而且也完全不适合安慰这个国家，就更不用说试图领导美国摆脱他所挑起的仇恨和致命的党派关系了。", "index": 9350}
{"en": "Had the 14 crude bombs, which the FBI called “potentially destructive devices,” worked as intended, the bombmaker could have killed or gravely injured a who’s who of Trump adversaries.", "zh": "如果被联邦调查局称之为“潜在破坏性装置”的这14枚自制炸弹发挥了预期的效果，那么炸弹制造者可能已经杀害或重伤了作为特朗普对手的名人。", "index": 9351}
{"en": "The list included two former presidents (Bill Clinton and Barack Obama), Hillary Clinton, former Attorney General Eric Holder; a former CIA director; a former director of National Intelligence; two likely Democratic presidential candidates in 2020; a black congresswoman whom Trump frequently describes as “low IQ” (a common racist charge); two prominent Jewish billionaire philanthropists, one of whom, George Soros, is a frequent target of Trump and the subject of various right-wing conspiracy fantasies; and the actor Robert De Niro (who began his speech at this year’s Tony Awards ceremony by declaring, “Fuck Trump”).", "zh": "这份名单包括两位前总统（比尔·克林顿和巴拉克·奥巴马 ） 、 希拉里·克林顿、前首席检察官埃里克·霍尔德；前中情局长；前国家情报局局长；以及两名可能在2020年参选的民主党总统候选人；一位经常被特朗普形容为“低智商”的黑人女议员（这是一种非常普遍的种族主义指控 ） ； 两位著名的犹太亿万富翁慈善家，其中一位乔治·索罗斯一直是特朗普的常规目标，同时也是各种右翼阴谋幻想所针对的对象；此外还有演员罗伯特·德尼罗（他在今年托尼奖的颁奖典礼演说中一开始就宣布 ， “ 去他的特朗普 ” ） 。", "index": 9352}
{"en": "Though Trump had frequently singled out many of the bomber’s targets at his rallies – still attacking Hillary Clinton, his election opponent in 2016, for example, and then smiling as his audience chanted “Lock her up” – Trump’s defenders tried to throw the spotlight elsewhere.", "zh": "尽管特朗普经常在集会上特别提到炸弹制造者的许多目标 — — 例如，他仍在攻击作为自己2016年大选对手的希拉里·克林顿，而后面带微笑地对听众高喊“锁住她 ” — —特朗普的捍卫者仍试图让舆论聚焦到别的地方。", "index": 9353}
{"en": "The mail bombs, they claimed, were a “false flag” operation by the left, with some of the Democrats even sending the bombs to themselves in order to blame Trump.", "zh": "他们声称邮件炸弹是左翼“打着特朗普旗号的假冒行动 ” ， 有些民主党人甚至给自己寄炸弹，并借此指责特朗普。", "index": 9354}
{"en": "So it was highly inconvenient for true believers when the would-be bomber turned out to be a fanatical Trump supporter who lives in Florida and drives a white van covered in hate-filled depictions of his targets.", "zh": "因此当事实证明炸弹嫌疑人是居住在佛罗里达州的一位狂热的特朗普支持者，并开着一辆绘满了对其目标充满仇恨的画像的白色厢式货车时，对特朗普的铁杆支持者而言是非常尴尬的。", "index": 9355}
{"en": "US law enforcement agencies – another frequent target of Trump – are extremely good at tracking down miscreants: the suspect was arrested four days after the first bomb was discovered in Soros’s mailbox.", "zh": "美国执法机构 — — 也是特朗普经常攻击的另外一个目标 — — 非常善于追查歹徒：嫌疑人在索罗斯邮箱发现第一枚炸弹四天后被捕。", "index": 9356}
{"en": "The most disheartening aspect of the entire episode was Trump’s utter incapacity as a national leader.", "zh": "整个事件从始至终最令人沮丧的就是，特朗普身为国家领袖却完全束手无策。", "index": 9357}
{"en": "But that should surprise no one.", "zh": "但这应当早在所有人的预料之中。", "index": 9358}
{"en": "How could a president who has thrived politically on dividing the American people, who has been spewing hate, sowing resentment, and at times even encouraging violence at his rallies, suddenly be – or even pretend to be – a healer?", "zh": "怎么能指望一个借助分裂美国民众而谋取大量政治利益、坚持播种仇恨、怨怼，有时甚至在集会上鼓励暴力行为的美国总统突然之间扮演 — — 甚至假装扮演 — — 治愈者的角色？", "index": 9359}
{"en": "In fact, Trump’s pattern of incitement and routine denunciations of the media as “the enemy of the people” had convinced many that some of his followers might resort to violence against members of the press.", "zh": "事实上，特朗普的煽动及不停谴责媒体是“人民公敌”的模式已经令很多人深信其追随者有可能针对新闻媒体从业人员发起暴力行动。", "index": 9360}
{"en": "The day after the discovery of the bombs sent to the Clintons and the Obamas, among others, a subdued Trump read a prepared statement at a prescheduled White House ceremony, condemning “acts or threats of political violence” and saying that the nation must unify.", "zh": "此次事件中，在发现寄给克林顿和奥巴马炸弹的第二天，一个被暂时被压制的特朗普在一次预定举行的白宫仪式上宣读了一份准备好的声明，谴责“政治暴力的威胁和行为 ” ， 并表示民众必须统一起来。", "index": 9361}
{"en": "It didn’t last.", "zh": "但这种情况并没有持续多久。", "index": 9362}
{"en": "By that evening, at a rally in Wisconsin, he was making fun of his “trying to be nice” act and blamed the media for the violence.", "zh": "到那天傍晚，在威斯康辛州举行的一次集会上，特朗普就开始取笑自己“试图变得和善”的行为，并称媒体应对此次暴力行为负责。", "index": 9363}
{"en": "And soon he was back to whipping up fear of a caravan of refugees from Honduras.", "zh": "很快他又重新开始煽动对洪都拉斯难民车队的恐惧。", "index": 9364}
{"en": "Though still roughly 1,000 miles from the US border, Trump portrayed the refugees as an imminent national security threat, warning, without evidence, that “Middle Easterners” were among them.", "zh": "尽管距美国边境仍有1，000英里，但特朗普仍将那些难民描绘成迫在眉睫的国家安全威胁，并在毫无证据的情况下警告，难民队伍中混入了“中东人 ” 。", "index": 9365}
{"en": "Trump’s rallies are now almost a daily event, and his lies are even more frequent than before.", "zh": "特朗普的集会现在几乎天天上演，而他的谎言也比以前频繁得多。", "index": 9366}
{"en": "With the entire House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate to be chosen on November 6, the upcoming midterm election is widely regarded as the most consequential in memory, perhaps ever.", "zh": "因为11月6日将选举整个众议院和参议院1/3的席位，即将到来的中期选举被普遍视为人们记忆当中最重要的选举，其重要性甚至也许是史无前例的。", "index": 9367}
{"en": "The Republicans’ two-year lock on the entire US government – the House, the Senate, the presidency, and, with the recent addition of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the Supreme Court – could be broken.", "zh": "共和党对整个美国政府长达两年的完全控制 — — 包括众议院、参议院、总统职位，以及不久前刚刚就任最高法院法官的布雷特·卡瓦诺 — — 这次有可能会被打破。", "index": 9368}
{"en": "The midterm election following the election of a new president is often considered a verdict on the incumbent, and his party usually loses strength, particularly in the House.", "zh": "紧随新总统当选后的中期选举往往会被视为对现任总统的宣判，而其所属政党往往会失势，尤其是在众议院。", "index": 9369}
{"en": "But Trump has made the midterms about himself to an unprecedented degree.", "zh": "但特朗普已经把中期选举和自己的关系抬高的前所未有的程度。", "index": 9370}
{"en": "He tells audiences that though he’s not on the ballot, they should vote as if he were (though his approval ratings are in the low forties).", "zh": "他告诉听众尽管他并未参加投票，他们在投票时应当假设他是其中的一员（尽管他的支持率现在已经降到40 % ） 。", "index": 9371}
{"en": "It has long been believed that the Democrats are more likely to win the House than the Senate, because several of the Senate seats in play are held by Democrats in traditionally conservative states.", "zh": "很长时间以来，人们一直认为与参议院相比，民主党更有可能赢得众议院，因为即将参与选举的几个参议院席位都掌握在传统保守州的民主党人手中。", "index": 9372}
{"en": "Trump’s determination, or anxiety, that Republicans maintain control of both chambers is understandable.", "zh": "特朗普对共和党人继续控制两院的决心和焦虑可以理解。", "index": 9373}
{"en": "Should the Democrats take over the House, newly empowered committee chairmen, armed with subpoenas, will launch investigations of a broad range of administration actions and agencies, where extensive corruption is suspected.", "zh": "如果民主党人接管众议院，那么新授权的委员会主席将会拿到传票，并将广泛调查涉嫌贪污行为的一系列行政行为和机构。", "index": 9374}
{"en": "But the real, almost palpable, fear on Trump’s part is that a Democratic-controlled House will focus all manner of investigations on him personally: his acceptance of Constitutionally forbidden “emoluments” from foreign countries; his failure to separate himself sufficiently from the family business; his tax returns; his unauthorized foreign wars in Yemen and Syria; and of course his official and private dealings with Russia.", "zh": "但特朗普几乎清晰可辨的真正的恐惧是民主党控制的众议院将把所有调查集中在他本人身上：他接受宪法明文规定禁止的外国“酬金 ” ； 他未能与家族企业充分脱钩；他的纳税申报返还；他未经授权擅自在也门和叙利亚发动战争；当然还有他与俄罗斯之间的公开和私下交易。", "index": 9375}
{"en": "At least the House is likely to have the conclusions of Special Counsel Robert Mueller to consider.", "zh": "至少众议院可能会得出与特别顾问罗伯特·穆勒相同的结论。", "index": 9376}
{"en": "In other words, no more lapdog Congress.", "zh": "换句话说，国会将不再是特朗普豢养的宠物。", "index": 9377}
{"en": "But if the Republicans maintain control of the Senate, there will be limits on what the Democrats can achieve.", "zh": "但如果共和党保持对参议院的控制，就会限制民主党所能达到的目标。", "index": 9378}
{"en": "Even if the House were to impeach Trump – no sure thing – convicting him in the Senate would be extremely difficult.", "zh": "即使众议院真的弹劾特朗普 — — 能不能弹劾现在还根本无法确定 — — 要想在参议院将他定罪也将是极其困难的。", "index": 9379}
{"en": "Whether a Democratic House would even proceed in that direction has been the subject of intra-party debate.", "zh": "甚至民主党控制的众议院是否会朝那个方向努力一直都还是党内争论的目标。", "index": 9380}
{"en": "The nightmare election possibility for the Democrats is continued Republican control of both chambers.", "zh": "对民主党而言，噩梦般的选举前景是两院继续由共和党控制。", "index": 9381}
{"en": "In that case, Trump will feel vindicated and more liberated than ever.", "zh": "在那样的情况下，特朗普相比任何时候都将更强烈地感受到无辜和自由。", "index": 9382}
{"en": "He might then fire a raft of officials, treat immigrants still more harshly, and try to shut down Mueller’s investigation of his campaign’s possible collusion with the Kremlin and Trump’s probable obstruction of justice.", "zh": "然后他可能会解雇大批官员，更严厉的对待移民，并试图停止穆勒对其选举团队与克里姆林宫可能的串通以及特朗普可能的阻挠司法行为的调查行动。", "index": 9383}
{"en": "The conventional wisdom may prevail, with the Democrats winning the House but not the Senate.", "zh": "传统智慧可能会占据上风，民主党可能会在众议院而非参议院选举中获胜。", "index": 9384}
{"en": "But the polls have been fluctuating.", "zh": "但民意调查显示的结果一直在波动。", "index": 9385}
{"en": "And since Trump’s stunning election victory in 2016, most observers have become more cautious about predicting outcomes.", "zh": "自从特朗普2016年令人瞩目地获胜以来，多数观察家都对预测选举结果变得更加谨慎。", "index": 9386}
{"en": "Alliances for Peace", "zh": "为了和平的联盟", "index": 9387}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – I grew up in the shadow of World War II, and at the dawn of the Cold War.", "zh": "华盛顿—我成长于二战的阴影和冷战的黎明中。", "index": 9388}
{"en": "My father’s work as a Foreign Service officer gave me an opportunity to see history up close in a searing way: I will never forget walking the beaches of Normandy with him and seeing the burned hulks of Higgins’ boats still on those shores, just a few years after so many young men went to their graves so the world could be free.", "zh": "我的父亲是一位驻外事务处（Foreign Service）官员，这使我有机会以一双火眼金睛近距离观察历史：我永远不会忘记和他一起漫步在诺曼底海滩，看见烧毁的希金斯艇（Higgins’ boats）的庞大身躯仍矗立在岸上，就在几年前，大批年轻人为了世界的自由慷慨赴死。", "index": 9389}
{"en": "Likewise, I will never forget the eerie feeling of riding my bike through the Brandenburg Gate from West Berlin into the East, and seeing the contrast between people who were free and those who were trapped behind the Iron Curtain.", "zh": "类似地，我也永远不会忘记骑着自行车从西柏林通过布兰登堡门前往东柏林时的怪异感觉，目睹自由的人和被困在铁幕之后的人的反差。", "index": 9390}
{"en": "What strikes me now, all these years later, is that a generation of leaders won not only a war, but also the peace.", "zh": "多年以后，如今让我震惊的是一代领导人不但赢得了战争，还赢得了和平。", "index": 9391}
{"en": "They did it together.", "zh": "他们齐心协力做到了这一点。", "index": 9392}
{"en": "The United States and our partners worked to create alliances that brought prosperity and stability to Western Europe, Japan, and South Korea.", "zh": "美国和我们的伙伴努力建立了给西欧、日本和韩国带来繁荣与稳定的联盟。", "index": 9393}
{"en": "Old enemies became new allies, and together pioneered a new global economic system that made the world more prosperous.", "zh": "旧敌人成了新盟友，并一起引领了让全世界更繁荣的新全球经济制度。", "index": 9394}
{"en": "And even as the Cold War raged, leaders found ways to cooperate on arms control and prevent a nuclear Armageddon.", "zh": "哪怕是在冷战肆虐时，领导人们也找得到办法在武器控制和阻止核末日等方面进行合作。", "index": 9395}
{"en": "In short, by building effective and indispensable international institutions and strategic partnerships, we did not just avoid another catastrophic world war; we ultimately ended the Cold War and lifted global living standards for hundreds of millions of people.", "zh": "简言之，通过构建有效的、不可或缺的国际机构和战略合作关系，我们不但避免了又一场灾难性世界大战，我们最终还结束了冷战，提高了全球数亿人的生活水平。", "index": 9396}
{"en": "That is the remarkable story of the twentieth century.", "zh": "这是20世纪令人瞩目的故事。", "index": 9397}
{"en": "The question now is what story will emerge from the twenty-first century.", "zh": "现在的问题是21世纪的故事会怎样展开。", "index": 9398}
{"en": "Today, the world order faces new challenges.", "zh": "今天，世界秩序面临新挑战。", "index": 9399}
{"en": "Russian aggression is rattling allies.", "zh": "俄罗斯的入侵让盟国震惊。", "index": 9400}
{"en": "Extremists who hijack religion threaten governments and people everywhere.", "zh": "从事宗教圣战的极端主义者威胁着政府和各处的人民。", "index": 9401}
{"en": "Technology is accelerating a shift in the balance of power between governments and governed that offers both opportunities for democratic accountability and obstacles to inclusive politics.", "zh": "科技正在加速治国者和被治者之间的实力平衡，既提供了民主问责的机会，也形成了包容政治的障碍。", "index": 9402}
{"en": "We have gone from a world where power resided in hierarchies to one where it inhabits networks.", "zh": "我们已经从权力呈现层级分布的世界来到了权力呈现网络分布的世界。", "index": 9403}
{"en": "Statecraft has yet to adapt.", "zh": "但治国术还没有适应。", "index": 9404}
{"en": "The international institutions and partnerships that emerged in the postwar years demand both maintenance and modernization.", "zh": "战后时期出现的国际机构和合作关系既需要维持，也需要现代化。", "index": 9405}
{"en": "In the face of all of this turbulence, some suggest that America should turn inward.", "zh": "面临所有这些动荡，有人认为美国应该转向内向。", "index": 9406}
{"en": "That is nothing new.", "zh": "这不过是陈词滥调。", "index": 9407}
{"en": "Some argued the same after WWII.", "zh": "二战后就有人提出这样的观点。", "index": 9408}
{"en": "They argued it again 25 years ago, after the fall of the Berlin Wall.", "zh": "25年前柏林墙倒塌后又有人这样说。 那时，他们错了。", "index": 9409}
{"en": "They were wrong then – and they are wrong now.", "zh": "如今，他们也是错的。", "index": 9410}
{"en": "The need for leadership has never been greater, and the US has never been more engaged with the world.", "zh": "对领导力的需要从未如此巨大，美国也从未如此深地参与世界。", "index": 9411}
{"en": "Our role in Afghanistan’s first-ever peaceful, democratic transition reminds us all that, having invested so much blood and treasure in helping to give Afghans a chance to succeed in battle, the world has just as much responsibility to help its leaders succeed in governance.", "zh": "我们在阿富汗历史上首次和平的民主转型中所扮演的角色提醒我们所有人，世界付出如此大的鲜血和金钱代价帮助阿富汗人获得在战争中获胜的机会，也有同样大的责任帮助阿富汗领导人在治国方面取得成功。", "index": 9412}
{"en": "We know that the destruction of 100% of Syria’s declared chemical weapons would not have happened without direct, hands-on diplomacy and perseverance, just as Syria’s immoral and horrifying civil war will not end without an equal commitment.", "zh": "我们知道，如果没有亲力亲为地直接参与和坚持不屑，就不可能100%摧毁叙利亚宣称拥有的化学武器，正如没有这些努力，叙利亚令人骇人听闻的邪恶内战是不会结束的。", "index": 9413}
{"en": "So, too, in Asia, where President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping just announced ambitious commitments to tackle climate change, we are reminded of what countries can accomplish together with real leadership – and of how much additional leadership is required to conclude a successful climate agreement in Paris next year.", "zh": "亚洲也是如此，奥巴马总统和中国国家主席习近平刚刚作出宏达承诺解决气候变化问题，我们可以从中看到，有了真正的领导力，各国可以完成怎样的成就 — — 也可以看到，要在明年的巴黎敲定成功的气候协定还需要多少领导力。", "index": 9414}
{"en": "The world has changed, and we are changing with it.", "zh": "世界已经发生了变化，我们也在随之改变。", "index": 9415}
{"en": "Lines on the map no longer contain the gravest threats, and the players are no longer divided neatly into two camps.", "zh": "地图上的线不再包含最严重的威胁，各行动方也不再泾渭分明地分成两个阵营。", "index": 9416}
{"en": "In the twenty-first century, next door is everywhere.", "zh": "在21世纪，后门无处不在。", "index": 9417}
{"en": "That is why the world needs coalition diplomacy.", "zh": "因此，世界需要联盟外交（coalition diplomacy ） 。", "index": 9418}
{"en": "No country can defeat terrorism on its own.", "zh": "没有哪个国家能够单枪匹马击败恐怖主义。", "index": 9419}
{"en": "No country can solve the existential threat of climate change alone.", "zh": "没有哪个国家能够单枪匹马解决生存危机。", "index": 9420}
{"en": "No country can eradicate extreme poverty, combat potential pandemics, or improve nuclear security by itself.", "zh": "没有哪个国家能够依靠自己消灭极端贫困、战胜潜在传染病或改善核安全。", "index": 9421}
{"en": "None of us can live safer, richer lives by turning our back to the world.", "zh": "如果我���不直面世界，我们所有人都无法获得更安全、更富裕的生活。", "index": 9422}
{"en": "We must build on our history of working with allies by forming new coalitions – with governments, with civil society, and, yes, with everyday people.", "zh": "我们必须与政府、与公民社会 — — 是的，还要与普罗大众 — — 结成新的联盟，与盟友们一起构建历史。", "index": 9423}
{"en": "A good example is the international effort to confront the Islamic State’s malign brutality in Iraq and Syria.", "zh": "一个很好的例子是针对伊斯兰国在伊拉克和叙利亚残忍暴行的国际努力。", "index": 9424}
{"en": "Political, humanitarian, and intelligence tools from more than 60 countries are being used to support unified military action.", "zh": "来自60多个国家政治、人道和情报工具被用于支持联合军事行动。", "index": 9425}
{"en": "Success depends not on what one or even a handful of countries can do alone, but on what all of us are able to achieve by moving forward together against this common threat.", "zh": "成功不取决于一国甚至少数几国可以独力完成什么，而是取决于我们所有人可以通过携手面对这一共同威胁实现什么。", "index": 9426}
{"en": "On an equally important front, the US is working with the United Nations to galvanize a global response to the danger posed by the Ebola virus.", "zh": "在另一个同样重要的阵线，美国正在与联合国一起努力激励全球应对埃博拉病毒的威胁。", "index": 9427}
{"en": "I have personally talked with more than 50 foreign leaders, and we all agree that only by coordinating our actions can we stop the devastation in West Africa and halt Ebola’s spread.", "zh": "我个人与50多位外国领导人讨论了这一问题，我们都同意，只有通过协调行动才能阻止西非的灾难和埃博拉的传播。", "index": 9428}
{"en": "We are making progress on both issues, but much work remains.", "zh": "我们在这两个问题上都在取得进展，但仍有许多工作要做。", "index": 9429}
{"en": "Bringing together countries with competing interests and varying resources is hard work.", "zh": "让利益相互竞争、资源大相径庭的国家走到一起是一个艰难的工作。", "index": 9430}
{"en": "It demands intense diplomatic engagement and calls upon relationships that have been built and maintained over decades, as well as alliances with new partners.", "zh": "这要求大量外交投入、动员几十年来所构建和维持的关系以及与新合作伙伴的联盟。", "index": 9431}
{"en": "But by overcoming differences and coordinating efforts to defeat the Islamic State and conquer Ebola, we are reinforcing support for a world order grounded in collective solutions to common problems.", "zh": "但通过克服差异、共同努力击败伊斯兰国、征服埃博拉，我们正在强化对基于针对共同问题的集体解决方案的世界秩序的支持。", "index": 9432}
{"en": "Cooperation is equally vital in reinforcing the bedrock economic principles on which America and other countries built their postwar prosperity.", "zh": "对于巩固作为美国和其他国家战后繁荣基础的经济原则，合作也同样重要。", "index": 9433}
{"en": "Frustration cannot grow faster than opportunity in any country.", "zh": "不论哪个国家，沮丧都不会比机会发展得更快。", "index": 9434}
{"en": "For example, the negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) reflect President Obama’s determination to strike an accord with countries that represent one-third of global trade and 40% of global GDP.", "zh": "比如，跨太平洋合作伙伴关系（Trans-Pacific Partnership，TPP）表明了奥巴马与占全球贸易三分之一、全球GDP百分之四十的地区形成一致的决心。", "index": 9435}
{"en": "The benefits – for both the US and our partners – are enormous.", "zh": "不管是对美国还是对我们的合作伙伴，好处都是巨大的。", "index": 9436}
{"en": "Estimates are that the TPP could provide $77 billion a year in real income and support 650,000 new jobs in the US alone.", "zh": "据估计，光是在美国，TPP每年可以增加77美元真实收入、支持650,000个新就业岗位。", "index": 9437}
{"en": "The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership being negotiated with the European Union offers another major step toward increasing trade.", "zh": "正在与欧盟谈判的跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴关系（Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership）则提供了另一个促进贸易的一大步。", "index": 9438}
{"en": "Whether for mutual security or shared prosperity, genuine partnerships are not built overnight.", "zh": "不管是为了共同安全还是共同繁荣，真正的伙伴关系都不是一夜建成的。", "index": 9439}
{"en": "Patient diplomacy and a collective will are needed to advance common goals. America’s objectives remain the same as they have been for decades – peace, prosperity, and stability for the US and for our partners around the world.", "zh": "耐心的外交和集体意愿是推进共同目标的必要条件，美国的目标与数十年来别无二致 — — 和平、繁荣以及美国和我们的全球伙伴的稳定。", "index": 9440}
{"en": "Closing the Investment Gap", "zh": "填补投资缺口", "index": 9441}
{"en": "BERKELEY – The weakness of private investment in the United States and other advanced economies is a worrisome – and perplexing – feature of the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis.", "zh": "伯克利—美国和其他发达经济体私人投资疲软，2008年全球金融危机后的复苏的这一特征令人担忧，也令人困惑。", "index": 9442}
{"en": "Indeed, according to the International Monetary Fund, through 2014, private investment declined by an average of 25% compared to pre-crisis trends.", "zh": "事实上，据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，2014年较危机前趋势，私人投资平均下降25 % 。", "index": 9443}
{"en": "The shortfall in investment has been deep and broad-based, affecting not only residential investment but also investment in equipment and structures.", "zh": "投资不足的深度和广度都很大，不但影响住宅投资，也影响设备和结构投资。", "index": 9444}
{"en": "Business investment remains significantly below pre-2008 expectations, and has been hit hard again in the US during the last year by the collapse of energy-sector investment in response to the steep drop in oil prices.", "zh": "商业投资显著低于2008年前的预期，去年美国商业投资因为石油价格暴跌所导致的能源部门投资骤降而再遭重创。", "index": 9445}
{"en": "Interestingly, the investment shortfall in the US coincides with a strong rebound in returns to capital.", "zh": "有趣的是，美国的投资短缺和资本回报率的强力反弹同时发生。", "index": 9446}
{"en": "By one measure, returns to private capital are now at a higher point than any time in recent decades.", "zh": "从某种程度上讲，私人资本回报率目前比最近几十年中的任何时候都要高。", "index": 9447}
{"en": "But extensive empirical research confirms that at the macro level, business investment depends primarily on expected future demand and output growth, not on current returns or retained earnings.", "zh": "但大量实证研究证实，在宏观层面，商业投资主要取决于预期未来需求和产出增长，而不是当前回报率或留存利润。", "index": 9448}
{"en": "According to the IMF, this “accelerator” theory of investment explains most of the weakness of business investment in the developed economies since the 2008 crisis.", "zh": "据IMF，这一投资的“加速器”理论解释了2008年危机后发达经济体商业投资疲软的绝大部分。", "index": 9449}
{"en": "In accordance with this explanation, investment growth in the US has been in line with its usual historical relationship with output growth.", "zh": "根据这一解释，美国投资增长与其与产出增长的正常历史关系相符。", "index": 9450}
{"en": "In short, private investment growth has been weak primarily because the pace of recovery has been anemic.", "zh": "简言之，私人投资疲软主要是因为复苏疲软。", "index": 9451}
{"en": "Businesses have marked down their pre-crisis investment plans to reflect a post-crisis “new normal” of slower and more uncertain growth in demand for their output.", "zh": "企业削减危机前的投资计划，以适应速度更低、不确定性性更大的危机后产出需求增长“新常态 ” 。", "index": 9452}
{"en": "Under conditions of weak aggregate demand, stronger public investment encourages more private business investment.", "zh": "在总需求疲软的背景下，加强公共投资鼓励更多的私人商业投资。", "index": 9453}
{"en": "But public investment, too, has fallen below pre-crisis expectations, aggravating rather than ameliorating the slump in private investment.", "zh": "但公共投资也不如危机前预期，加剧而不是缓解了私人投资的暴跌。", "index": 9454}
{"en": "The accelerator explanation of the shortfall in business investment in the US is consistent with evidence that, where projected demand growth has been relatively strong – for example, in cable, telecommunications, digital platforms, social networking, and, until recently, energy – investment growth has also been relatively strong.", "zh": "美国商业投资短缺的加速器解释与证据一致。 证据表明，预测的需求增长相对强势的部门 — — 比如在电缆、通讯、数字平台、社交网络以及直到最近的能源等 — — 投资增长也相对强势。", "index": 9455}
{"en": "Indeed, telecom and cable companies accounted for the largest share of business capital expenditures during the last three years, with energy production and mining second on the list.", "zh": "事实上，通讯和电缆公司占据了过去三年商业资本支出的最大份额，紧随其后的是能源生产和矿产。", "index": 9456}
{"en": "Differences in innovation opportunities across industries are also consistent with the changing composition of business investment.", "zh": "行业间创新机会的差异也与商业投资份额变化一致。", "index": 9457}
{"en": "During the 2009-2015 period, while business investment in equipment slowed in the US, it accelerated in intellectual property products, including research and development, software, and so-called artistic originals (the output of artists, studios, and publishers).", "zh": "2009—2015年期间，美国设备商业投资放缓，但知识产权产品，包括研发、软件和所谓的原创作品（艺术家、工作室和出版商的产出）等，呈现加速增长。", "index": 9458}
{"en": "R&D investment usually expands faster than GDP during cyclical expansions, and the current period is in line with historical trends.", "zh": "在周期性扩张中，研发投资通常快于GDP，最近一段时期与历史趋势相符。", "index": 9459}
{"en": "Indeed, as a share of the economy, R&D investment is now at its highest level on record, which bodes well for future productivity growth.", "zh": "事实上，以占经济比重论，研发支出目前处于历史最高水平，这十分有利于未来生产率增长。", "index": 9460}
{"en": "As the accelerator theory of investment would predict, much R&D investment is occurring in technology-intensive sectors where current and future expected demand has been strong.", "zh": "投资的加速器理论认为，大量研发投资发生在当前和未来预期需求强势的技术密集型部门。", "index": 9461}
{"en": "There is also evidence that the distribution of returns to capital is becoming increasingly skewed toward these sectors.", "zh": "也有证据表明，资本回报的分布越来越向这些部门倾斜。", "index": 9462}
{"en": "According to a recent McKinsey Global Institute report, the most digitized sectors – ranked by 18 metrics on digital assets, digital usage, and digital workforce – enjoy significantly higher profit margins than traditional sectors.", "zh": "据最新的麦肯锡全球研究所报告，最为数字化的部门 — — 通过数字资产、数字用途和数字劳动力等十八个指标排序 — — 所获得的利润率显著高于传统部门。", "index": 9463}
{"en": "In a recent letter to the chief executives of the S&P 500 companies and large European corporations, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest investment management company, expressed concern that many global firms may be sacrificing value-creating investments by distributing dividends and buying back their own shares.", "zh": "在致标普500成分股公司和呕吼大公司首席执行官的信中，全球最大投资管理公司贝莱德公司（Black Rock）首席执行官拉里·芬克（Larry Fink）表示担心许多全球企业可能正在用发放股利和回购本公司股票的方式浪费创造价值的机会。", "index": 9464}
{"en": "Among US nonfinancial corporations, the proportion of investable funds used for dividends and share buybacks has been trending upward, albeit with cyclical ups and downs, since the 1980s.", "zh": "在美国非金融公司中，20世纪80年代以来用于股利和股票回购的可投资资金比例呈现增加之势（尽管存在起伏 ） 。", "index": 9465}
{"en": "After a sharp downturn during the 2008-2009 recession, this proportion has now recovered to nearly 50%, a high point relative to historical averages.", "zh": "2008—2009年衰退期间这一比例大幅下井，但如今又恢复到50%左右，从历史平均值看相当高。", "index": 9466}
{"en": "The macro evidence indicates that the primary cause of disappointing business investment in the US and other developed countries in the years following the global financial crisis has been anemic demand, not a lack of investable funds resulting from excessive distributions to shareholders.", "zh": "宏观证据表明，全球金融危机以来美国和其他发达国家商业投资令人失望的主要原因是需求萎靡，而不是过多地向股东分配而导致可投资资金不足。", "index": 9467}
{"en": "Over the longer term, however, the upward trend in dividends and share buybacks as a percentage of corporate investable funds is a symptom of mounting shareholder pressure on corporations to focus on short-term returns at the expense of long-term investments.", "zh": "但是，从长期看，股利和股票回购占公司可投资资金的百分比的上升趋势是股东日益向公司施加压力、要求其专注于短期回报而非长期投资的症候。", "index": 9468}
{"en": "In a recent McKinsey survey of 1,000 top executives and corporate directors, 63% reported that shareholder pressure to realize short-term returns has increased over the last several years.", "zh": "最近，麦肯锡调查了1,000名高管和公司董事，其中63%表示过去几年中股东对实现短期回报的压力有所增加。", "index": 9469}
{"en": "Indeed, some 79% reported pressure to demonstrate strong financial returns in two years or less.", "zh": "事实上，79%的受访者表示承受着在两年或以内实现大量财务回报的压力。", "index": 9470}
{"en": "Shareholder pressure tends to be greater in older firms, and in the US over the last few decades, the proportion of older firms has been growing as the startup rate for new businesses has fallen.", "zh": "股东压力对于老牌企业往往更大，在过去几十年中，美国老牌企业占比因为企业创业率的下降而有所上升。", "index": 9471}
{"en": "In addition, as Fink and others have warned, compensation practices that link top executives’ pay to measures of short-term success like quarterly earnings per share or annual equity performance also encourage “short-termism” in corporate investment decisions.", "zh": "此外，芬克和其他人警告说，将高管薪酬与短期成功指标（如季度每股收益或年度股票表现）挂钩的做法也鼓励了 公司投资决策的“短期化 ” 。", "index": 9472}
{"en": "A sliding capital gains tax, with rates that decline as the holding period for investments increases, would reduce incentives for short-termism among investors.", "zh": "递减的资本利得税 — — 即税率随投资持有期的增加而降低 — — 能遏制投资者短期化的激励。", "index": 9473}
{"en": "Among others, Larry Fink, the Center for American Progress, and Hillary Clinton propose this approach.", "zh": "拉里·芬克、美国进步中心（Center for American Progress）和希拉里·克林顿都建议采取这一方针。", "index": 9474}
{"en": "In his recent CEO letter, Fink also calls on companies to issue annual “strategic frameworks” for long-term value creation, supported by quantifiable financial metrics and linking long-term executive compensation to performance on them.", "zh": "在其最新的首席执行官的信中，芬克还呼吁各大公司为长期价值创造制定年度“战略框架 ” ， 使用量化财务指标并将长期高管薪酬与这些指标的表现挂钩。", "index": 9475}
{"en": "These frameworks, Fink notes, should cover environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors that are core determinants of long-term value.", "zh": "芬克指出，这些框架应该覆盖环境、社会和治理（ESG）因素，它们是长期价值的核心决定因素。", "index": 9476}
{"en": "Companies can use the new evidence-based standards developed by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board to disclose material information about their ESG performance to their investors.", "zh": "公司可以使用可持续性会计准则委员会（Sustainability Accounting Standards Board）所开发的新的基于证据的标准向投资者披露关于ESG表现的实质信息。", "index": 9477}
{"en": "Strategic frameworks, along with ESG disclosure, should encourage both companies and their shareholders to focus more on long-term value and less on short-term financial performance.", "zh": "战略框架配合ESG披露能够鼓励公司及其股东更加关注长期价值而不是短期财务表现。", "index": 9478}
{"en": "But at the macro level, expected growth in demand and associated innovation opportunities will remain the primary drivers of business investment.", "zh": "但在宏观层面，需求及相应创新机会的预期增长将仍然是商业投资的主要推动力。", "index": 9479}
{"en": "Inequality and the American Child", "zh": "不平等性与美国儿童", "index": 9480}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Children, it has long been recognized, are a special group.", "zh": "纽约—我们早就知道，儿童是一个特殊群体。", "index": 9481}
{"en": "They do not choose their parents, let alone the broader conditions into which they are born.", "zh": "他们无法选择父母，更不用说更广义的出生环境了。", "index": 9482}
{"en": "They do not have the same abilities as adults to protect or care for themselves.", "zh": "他们没有如同成人那样的保护或照看自己的能力。", "index": 9483}
{"en": "That is why the League of Nations approved the Geneva Declaration on the Rights of the Child in 1924, and why the international community adopted the Convention on the Rights of the Child in 1989.", "zh": "因此，国际联盟在1924年通过了日内瓦儿童权利宣言，国际社会也在1989年实施了儿童权利公约。", "index": 9484}
{"en": "Sadly, the United States is not living up to its obligations.", "zh": "悲哀的是，美国没有在履行义务。", "index": 9485}
{"en": "In fact, it has not even ratified the Convention on the Rights of the Child.", "zh": "事实上，它甚至没有批准儿童权利公约。", "index": 9486}
{"en": "The US, with its cherished image as a land of opportunity, should be an inspiring example of just and enlightened treatment of children.", "zh": "美国向来以机会之地的形象自豪，它本应该成为公正、开明地对待儿童的榜样。", "index": 9487}
{"en": "Instead, it is a beacon of failure – one that contributes to global sluggishness on children’s rights in the international arena.", "zh": "相反，它却成了失败的象征 — — 为儿童权利在国际经济场上的全球颓势做出了“贡献 ” 。", "index": 9488}
{"en": "Though an average American childhood may not be the worst in the world, the disparity between the country’s wealth and the condition of its children is unparalleled.", "zh": "普通美国儿童也许不是全世界境况最糟糕的，但美国财富和儿童条件之间的反差大到无与伦比。", "index": 9489}
{"en": "About 14.5% of the American population as a whole is poor, but 19.9% of children – some 15 million individuals – live in poverty.", "zh": "大约14.5%的美国总人口属于穷人，但19.9%的儿童 — — 大概相当于1,500万人 — — 生活在贫困中。", "index": 9490}
{"en": "Among developed countries, only Romania has a higher rate of child poverty.", "zh": "在发达国家中，只有罗马尼亚的儿童贫困率更高。", "index": 9491}
{"en": "The US rate is two-thirds higher than that in the United Kingdom, and up to four times the rate in the Nordic countries.", "zh": "美国的儿童贫困率比英国高三分之二，比北欧国家高三倍。", "index": 9492}
{"en": "For some groups, the situation is much worse: more than 38% of black children, and 30% of Hispanic children, are poor.", "zh": "某些群体的状况更是恶劣得多：38%的黑人儿童和30%的西班牙裔儿童是穷人。", "index": 9493}
{"en": "None of this is because Americans do not care about their children.", "zh": "所有这些都不是因为美国不在乎它的儿童。", "index": 9494}
{"en": "It is because America has embraced a policy agenda in recent decades that has caused its economy to become wildly unequal, leaving the most vulnerable segments of society further and further behind.", "zh": "而是因为美国在近几十年中采取的政策日程导致其经济变得普遍不平等，让最脆弱的社会细分群体越来越落后。", "index": 9495}
{"en": "The growing concentration of wealth – and a significant reduction in taxes on it – has meant less money to spend on investments for the public good, like education and the protection of children.", "zh": "��富的日益集中 — — 以及财富税收的大幅减少 — — 意味着花在教育和儿童保护等公共品投资上的支出越来越少了。", "index": 9496}
{"en": "As a result, America’s children have become worse off.", "zh": "结果，美国儿童的境况每况愈下。", "index": 9497}
{"en": "Their fate is a painful example of how inequality not only undermines economic growth and stability – as economists and organizations like the International Monetary Fund are finally acknowledging – but also violates our most cherished notions of what a fair society should look like.", "zh": "他们的命运是一个惨痛的教训，说明了不平等性不但破坏经济增长和稳定 — — 经济学家和国际货币基金组织（IMF）等组织总算开始承认这一点了 — — 也有悖于我们最珍视的公平社会的概念。", "index": 9498}
{"en": "Income inequality is correlated with inequalities in health, access to education, and exposure to environmental hazards, all of which burden children more than other segments of the population.", "zh": "收入不平等与健康不平等、教育不平等和环境危险不平等都具有相关性，而所有这些对儿童的影响比其他人群更大。", "index": 9499}
{"en": "Indeed, nearly one in five poor American children are diagnosed with asthma, a rate 60% higher than non-poor children.", "zh": "事实上，近五分之一的美国贫穷儿童被诊断出哮喘，比非贫穷儿童高出60 % 。", "index": 9500}
{"en": "Learning disabilities occur almost twice as frequently among children in households earning less than $35,000 a year than they do in households earning more than $100,000.", "zh": "年收入低于35,000美元家庭的儿童学习无能比例比年收入高于100,000美元家庭的儿童高出近一倍。", "index": 9501}
{"en": "And some in the US Congress want to cut food stamps – on which some 23 million American households depend, threatening the poorest children with hunger.", "zh": "一些美国国会议员还想削减食品券 — — 大约2,300万美国家庭需要仰仗食品券 — — 这将令去贫穷儿童面临挨饿的危险。", "index": 9502}
{"en": "These inequalities in outcomes are closely tied to inequalities in opportunities.", "zh": "这些结果上的不平等与机会不平等息息相关。", "index": 9503}
{"en": "Inevitably, in countries where children have inadequate nutrition, insufficient access to health care and education, and higher exposure to environmental hazards, the children of the poor will have far different life prospects from those of the rich.", "zh": "在儿童营养不足、无法获得足够医疗和教育的国家，环境风险也难免更高，穷孩子的生活前景远远比不上富孩子。", "index": 9504}
{"en": "And, partly because an American child’s lifetime prospects are more dependent on his or her parents’ income and education than in other advanced countries, the US now has the least equality of opportunity of any advanced country.", "zh": "此外，部分因为美国儿童一生前景比其他发达国家更多地取决于父母的收入和教育，目前美国的机会平等程度低于任何其他发达国家。", "index": 9505}
{"en": "At America’s most elite universities, for example, only around 9% of students come from the bottom half of the population, while 74% come from the top quarter.", "zh": "比如，在美国的精英大学，只有9%左右的学生来自底层二分之一人口，74%来自最高层四分之一人口。", "index": 9506}
{"en": "Most societies recognize a moral obligation to help ensure that young people can live up to their potential.", "zh": "大部分社会都认为帮助确保年轻人能实现潜力所允许的生活水平是一种道德义务。", "index": 9507}
{"en": "Some countries even impose a constitutional mandate for equality of educational opportunities.", "zh": "一些国家甚至从宪法上规定教育机会必须平等。", "index": 9508}
{"en": "But in America, more is spent on the education of rich students than on the education of the poor.", "zh": "但在美国，富学生的教育支出要高于穷学生。", "index": 9509}
{"en": "As a result, the US is wasting some of its most valuable assets, with some young people – bereft of skills – turning to dysfunctional activities.", "zh": "结果，美国正在浪费其最宝贵的资产之一。 一些年轻人无法获得技能，只能从事非正常活动。", "index": 9510}
{"en": "American states like California spend about as much on prisons as on higher education – and sometimes more.", "zh": "加利福尼亚等州的监狱支出与高等教育支出相当，有时还要更高。", "index": 9511}
{"en": "Without compensatory measures – including pre-school education, ideally beginning at a very young age – unequal opportunities translate into unequal lifelong outcomes by the time children reach the age of five.", "zh": "不采取补偿措施 — — 包括最好从幼儿时期就开始的学前教育 — — 机会不平等就会在儿童达到五岁时转化为一生结果的不平等。", "index": 9512}
{"en": "That should be a spur to policy action.", "zh": "这应该成为对政策行动的鞭策。", "index": 9513}
{"en": "Indeed, while inequality’s harmful effects are wide-reaching, and impose huge costs on our economies and societies, they are largely avoidable.", "zh": "事实上，尽管不平等性的伤害效应很广，并且给我们的经济与社会造成了巨大成本，但它们大多是可以避免的。", "index": 9514}
{"en": "The extremes of inequality observed in some countries are not the inexorable result of economic forces and laws.", "zh": "一些国家所观察到的极端不平等不是经济力量和定律的无情结果。", "index": 9515}
{"en": "The right policies – stronger social safety nets, progressive taxation, and better regulation (especially of the financial sector), to name a few – can reverse these devastating trends.", "zh": "正确的政策 — — 强化社会安全网、累进税制和更好的监管（特别是对金融部门 ） ， 等等 — — 可以扭转这些消极趋势。", "index": 9516}
{"en": "To generate the political will that such reforms require, we must confront policymakers’ inertia and inaction with the grim facts of inequality and its devastating effects on our children.", "zh": "要形成这些改革所需要的政治意愿，我们必须将决策者的惰性和不作为与不平等性的严峻现实及其对儿童造成的消极影响对立起来。", "index": 9517}
{"en": "We can reduce childhood deprivation and increase equality of opportunity, thereby laying the groundwork for a more just and prosperous future – one that reflects our own avowed values.", "zh": "我们能够减轻儿童权利的剥夺、增加机会平等，从而为更公正、更繁荣的未来 — — 反映我们所公开追求的价值的未来 — — 打下基础。", "index": 9518}
{"en": "So why don’t we?", "zh": "为什么我们还不行动呢？", "index": 9519}
{"en": "Of the harm that inequality inflicts on our economies, politics, and societies, the damage done to children demands special concern.", "zh": "不平等性给我们的经济、政治与社会造成诸多伤害，其中对儿童的伤害需要特别关注。", "index": 9520}
{"en": "Whatever responsibility poor adults may bear for their lot in life – they may not have worked hard enough, saved enough, or made good decisions – children’s circumstances are thrust upon them without any sort of choice.", "zh": "成年人受穷，他自己得负责 — — 也许是工作不够努力，储蓄不够充足、没有做出好决策等 — — 但儿童的环境是上天强加给他们的，他们无从选择。", "index": 9521}
{"en": "Children, perhaps more than anyone, need the protection that rights afford – and the US should be providing the world with a shining example of what that means.", "zh": "也许儿童比其他任何人都更需要权利赋予的保护 — — 而美国应该为前世界树立此中含义的榜样。", "index": 9522}
{"en": "American Conservatism’s Crisis of Ideas", "zh": "美国保守主义的思想危机", "index": 9523}
{"en": "BERKELEY – On the back left corner of my desk right now are three recent books: Arthur Brooks’ The Battle, Charles Murray’s Coming Apart, and Nicholas Eberstadt’s A Nation of Takers.", "zh": "伯克利—现在，在我书桌的左后角摆着三部新书：布鲁克斯（Arthur Brooks）的《战争 》 （ The Battle ） 、 穆雷（Charles Murray）的《崩溃 》 （ Coming Apart）和埃伯斯塔特（Nicholas Eberstadt）的《匪之国 》 （ A Nation of Takers ） 。", "index": 9524}
{"en": "Together, they constitute an important intellectual movement, which also happens to be a large part of the reason that American conservatism today has little that is constructive to say about managing the economy – and little purchase on the center of the American electorate.", "zh": "总的来说，它们代表了重要的思想动向，这也恰好是当今美国保守主义对治理经济鲜有建设性意见、在美国选举舞台上频频败北的重要原因。", "index": 9525}
{"en": "But let’s back up historically, to the founding of what we might call modern conservatism in early nineteenth-century Britain and France.", "zh": "但让我们回顾历史，看看我们所谓的现代保守主义是如何在19世纪初的英国和法国起源的。", "index": 9526}
{"en": "There were some – Frédéric Bastiat and Jean-Baptiste Say come to mind – who believed that government should put the unemployed to work building infrastructure when markets or production were temporarily disrupted.", "zh": "一些人 — — 巴斯夏（Frédéric Bastiat）和萨伊（Jean-Baptiste Say）立刻出现在眼前 — — 认为当市场或生产出现了暂时性的干扰时，政府应该安排失业者去建设基础设施。", "index": 9527}
{"en": "But they were balanced by those like Nassau Senior, who spoke out against even famine relief: Although a million people would die in the Irish Potato Famine, “that would scarcely be enough.”", "zh": "但他们的观点被西尼尔（Nassau Senior）反对，他认为就连食品救济都不应该有：尽管数百万人因爱尔兰土豆饥荒丧命，但“这远远不够。 ”", "index": 9528}
{"en": "The main thrust of early conservatism was root-and-branch opposition to every form of social insurance: make the poor richer, and they would become more fertile.", "zh": "早期保守主义的主要卖点是彻底反对任何形式的社会保险：让穷人变富，他们就会生更多孩子。", "index": 9529}
{"en": "As a result, farm sizes would drop (as land was divided among ever more children), labor productivity would fall, and the poor would become even poorer.", "zh": "结果，农场规模会下降（因为土地得分给越来越多的子女 ） ， 劳动生产率会下降，而穷人会变得更穷。", "index": 9530}
{"en": "Social insurance was not just pointless; it was counterproductive.", "zh": "社会保险不但毫无意义；简直就是大逆不道。", "index": 9531}
{"en": "The proper economic policy was to teach people to venerate the throne (so that they would respect property), the paternal hearth (so that they would not marry imprudently young), and the religious altar (so that they would fear pre-marital sex).", "zh": "合理的经济政策是让人们尊王（从而尊重产权 ） 、 尊父（从而不会轻率早婚 ） 、 尊宗教（从而畏惧婚前性行为 ） 。", "index": 9532}
{"en": "Then, perhaps, with women chaste for half or more of their childbearing years, the surplus population would diminish and conditions for the poor would be as good as they could be.", "zh": "接着，只要女人在一半或以上的育龄时期严守贞洁，新增人口就会减少，穷人所处的环境就能尽可能地改善。", "index": 9533}
{"en": "Fast-forward 150 years to post-World War II America, and to the original Chicago School critique of the New Deal version of social insurance – that it created “notches” that perverted economic incentives.", "zh": "快速地浏览一下二战前150年中的美国，看看芝加哥学派对罗斯福新政这一社会保险新形式的最初批判 — — 它形成了阻碍经济创新的“等级 ” （ notch ） 。", "index": 9534}
{"en": "The government, Milton Friedman and others argued, told the poor: make more money and we will take away your free housing, food stamps, and income support.", "zh": "弗里德曼和其他人指出，政府告诉穷人：赚多点钱，我们将剥夺你的免费房子、食品券和收入支持。", "index": 9535}
{"en": "People are rational, Friedman said, so they will not work for long if they get nothing or next to nothing for it.", "zh": "人是理性的，弗里德曼说，因此如果没有好处或好处不多，他们是不会长时间工作的。", "index": 9536}
{"en": "The big difference between the Malthusian conservative critics of social insurance in the early nineteenth century and the Chicago critics of the 1970’s is that the Chicago critics had a point: Providing public support to the “worthy” poor, and then removing it when they began to stand on their own feet, poisoned incentives and was unlikely to lead to good outcomes.", "zh": "19世纪初马尔萨斯派保守主义对社会保险的批判和芝加哥学派20世纪70年代的批判之间的重大区别在于，芝加哥学派的批判有���样一个要点：为“相称的”穷人提供公共支持，在他们开始自立根生时撤掉支持，这样做会破坏激励，不可能形成好的结果。", "index": 9537}
{"en": "And so, from 1970 to 2000, a broad coalition of conservatives (who wanted to see the government stop encouraging immorality), centrists (who wanted government money spent effectively), and leftists (who wanted poverty alleviated) removed the “notches” from the social-insurance system.", "zh": "1970—2000年，保守派（他们想让政府停止鼓励伤风败俗行为 ） 、 中间派（他们想让政府把钱花在刀刃上）和左派（他们想减贫）组成了广泛同盟，把“等级”从社会保险体系中逐出。", "index": 9538}
{"en": "Presidents Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and even George W. Bush and their supporters created the current system, in which tax rates and eligibility thresholds are not punitive disincentives to enterprise.", "zh": "卡特、里根、老布什、克林顿甚至小布什诸位总统及其支持者创建了当前的体系，税率和起税点不再起到抑制企业的反激励效果。", "index": 9539}
{"en": "So what is the problem that America’s new generation of conservative critics of social insurance sees?", "zh": "那么，美国新一代社会保险的保守主义批判家看到了什么问题？", "index": 9540}
{"en": "It is not that raising poor people’s standard of living above bare subsistence produces Malthusian catastrophe, or that taxes and withdrawal of welfare benefits make people work, at the margin, for nothing.", "zh": "产生马尔萨斯式崩溃的不是穷人的生活水平较勉强维生有所提高，让人们几乎无酬工作的也不是税收和取消福利。", "index": 9541}
{"en": "For Eberstadt, the problem is that dependence on government is emasculating, and that too many people are dependent on government.", "zh": "在埃伯斯塔特看来，问题在于对政府的依赖在让人民变弱，太多的人仰仗政府过活。", "index": 9542}
{"en": "For Brooks, it is that knowing that public programs make one’s life easier causes one to vote for non-Republican candidates.", "zh": "在布鲁克斯看来，问题在于知道公共项目让生活变得更加容易导致民众把选票投给非共和党候选人。", "index": 9543}
{"en": "For Murray, it is that social insurance means that behaving badly does not lead to catastrophe – and we need bad behavior to lead to catastrophe in order to keep people from behaving badly.", "zh": "在穆雷看来，问题在于社会保险意味着做得不好不会导致崩溃 — — 我们需要导致崩溃的坏行为，这样才能让人们不再做出坏行为。", "index": 9544}
{"en": "The crucial point is that America’s conservative elites believe Brooks, Eberstadt, and Murray.", "zh": "关键点在于，美国保守主义精英相信布鲁克斯、埃伯斯塔特和穆雷。", "index": 9545}
{"en": "To this day, Mitt Romney is convinced that he lost the presidency in 2012 because Barack Obama unfairly gave Latino-Americans subsidized health insurance; gave women free reproductive health coverage (excluding abortion); and gave other groups similar “gifts.”", "zh": "眼下，罗姆尼相信他之所以输掉2012年总统大选，是因为奥巴马不公平地给了拉丁裔美国人健康保险补贴，给了妇女免费的生殖健康保险（不含流产 ） ， 还给了其他群体类似的“礼物 ” 。", "index": 9546}
{"en": "He could “never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.”", "zh": "他绝不会“让他们认为他们应该承担个人责任，看好自己的生活。 ”", "index": 9547}
{"en": "In fact, it would be a tough sell for any candidate to convince Americans who receive government benefits that they are dependent rather than empowered; that it is bad for people to vote for politicians who make their lives better; and that good public policy seeks to create human catastrophe rather than to avert it.", "zh": "事实上，不论哪位候选人，让拿政府福利的美国人相信他们与其说是受助者，不如说是依赖者、相信把票投给让他们生活更好的政客是不对的、让他们相信好的公共政策应该造成而不是避免人类灾难都不是易事。", "index": 9548}
{"en": "The problem for American conservatives is not their choice of candidates or the tone of their rhetoric. It is that their ideas are not politically sustainable.", "zh": "美国保守主义者的问题不在于候选人的选择或是说辞的语调，而在于他们的想法不具有政治可持续性。", "index": 9549}
{"en": "An Unhinged Democracy in America", "zh": "精神错乱的美国民主", "index": 9550}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Alexis de Tocqueville, a liberal French aristocrat, visited the United States in 1831 ostensibly to write a study of its “enlightened” prison system (locking people up in solitary confinement like penitent monks was the latest modern idea).", "zh": "纽约—1831年，法国自由派贵族托克维尔访问美国。 名义上，他是为了写一篇关于美国“开明”监狱系统（最新的概念是将犯人如同忏悔的僧侣那样关押在单间中）的研究。", "index": 9551}
{"en": "Out of this trip came de Tocqueville’s masterpiece, Democracy in America, in which he expressed admiration for American civil liberties and compared the world’s first genuine liberal democracy favorably with Old World institutions.", "zh": "结果，这次美国之旅造就了托克维尔的名著《论美国的民主 》 ， 在这部著作中，他对美国公民自由大加推崇，将这个世界上第一个正宗自由民主与旧世界的制度相比较，认为后者不如前者。", "index": 9552}
{"en": "But de Tocqueville had serious reservations, too.", "zh": "但托克维尔也有严重保留。", "index": 9553}
{"en": "The biggest danger to US democracy, he believed, was the tyranny of the majority, the suffocating intellectual conformity of American life, the stifling of minority opinion and dissent.", "zh": "他认为，美国民主的最大危险是多数人的暴政，美国式生活中令人窒息的思想顺从，令人压抑的少数派观点和异见。", "index": 9554}
{"en": "He was convinced that any exercise of unlimited power, be it by an individual despot or a political majority, is bound to end in disaster.", "zh": "他相信，任何无限权力，不管是个人暴君还是政治多数，都注定要在一地狼藉中结束。", "index": 9555}
{"en": "Democracy, in the sense of majority rule, needs restraints, just like any other system of government.", "zh": "从多数规则的角度讲，民主需要约束，一如其他所有制度的政府。", "index": 9556}
{"en": "That is why the British have mixed the authority of elected politicians with that of aristocratic privilege.", "zh": "因此，英国混合了当选政客的权力和君主特权。", "index": 9557}
{"en": "And it is why Americans still cherish their Constitution’s separation of governmental powers.", "zh": "同样因此，美国人至今仍珍视宪法对政府权力的分割。", "index": 9558}
{"en": "By contrast, in the French republican system, the state represents the so-called will of the people.", "zh": "相反，在法国共和制度中，国家代表所谓的人民的意志。", "index": 9559}
{"en": "As a result, its authority is less constrained, which may explain the greater frequency in France of street demonstrations and even of mob violence.", "zh": "结果，它的权威约束较小，这也许解释了法国街头示威乃至群众暴力更为频繁。", "index": 9560}
{"en": "Indeed, these upheavals may act as informal checks on official power.", "zh": "事实上，这些剧变是对正式权力的非正式制衡。", "index": 9561}
{"en": "De Tocqueville identified another source of restraint in the US system: the power of religion.", "zh": "托克维尔还指出了美国制度的另一个约束来源：宗教的力量。", "index": 9562}
{"en": "Human greed, as well as the temptation of going to extremes, was tempered by the moderating influence of a shared Christian faith.", "zh": "人类的贪婪，以及走极端的诱惑，被共同的基督教信仰的影响所中和。", "index": 9563}
{"en": "Liberty, in the US, was inextricably entwined with religious belief.", "zh": "在美国，自由与宗教信仰密不可分。", "index": 9564}
{"en": "The spectacle of American politics today would seem to cast doubt on de Tocqueville’s observation.", "zh": "今天的美国政坛景象似乎让人们质疑托克维尔的观察。", "index": 9565}
{"en": "Or, rather, the rhetoric of many Republicans aspiring to be President sounds like a perversion of what he saw in 1831.", "zh": "或者说，许多志在总统之位的共和党人的言论与托克维尔在1831年的所见所闻南辕北辙。", "index": 9566}
{"en": "Religion and liberty are still mentioned in one breath, but often to promote extreme views.", "zh": "宗教和自由仍然时时挂在嘴边，但常常是用来推动极端观点。", "index": 9567}
{"en": "Religious minorities are denounced.", "zh": "宗教少数群体遭到压迫。", "index": 9568}
{"en": "Apocalyptic fears are stoked.", "zh": "天启恐惧兴起。", "index": 9569}
{"en": "Intolerance is promoted.", "zh": "党同伐异被煽动。", "index": 9570}
{"en": "All in the name of God.", "zh": "所有这些打着上帝的名义。", "index": 9571}
{"en": "Of course, the US is not the only country where fringe demagogues are now poisoning mainstream politics.", "zh": "当然，美国并不是唯一的边缘煽动着正在毒害主流政治的国家。", "index": 9572}
{"en": "Religious language is less often heard in Western Europe, but all the more in parts of Eastern Europe, Turkey, and Israel.", "zh": "在西欧，宗教语言比以前更少听到了，但在东欧、土耳其和以色列的一些地方，情况正好相反。", "index": 9573}
{"en": "And the message of populism is similar everywhere in the democratic world: Liberal elites are to be blamed for all our ills and anxieties, from Europe’s refugee crisis to the inequities of the global economy, from “multiculturalism” to the rise of radical Islam.", "zh": "民粹主义的意义在民主世界各地都差不多：自由精英要为我们的所有问题和焦虑负责，不管是欧洲难民危机还是全球经济不平等性，不管是“多元文化主义”还是激进伊斯兰教的崛起。", "index": 9574}
{"en": "Populism is causing considerable alarm, not least because mainstream politicians seem less and less capable of finding a convincing way to stop its rise.", "zh": "民粹主义正在敲响警钟，因为主流政客越来越难以找到令人信服的方式阻止它的崛起。", "index": 9575}
{"en": "Those who are rightly worried about the politics of fear like to assume that populism is a threat to democracy itself.", "zh": "正确地担心恐惧政治的人喜欢假设民粹主义是民主本身的威胁。", "index": 9576}
{"en": "Distrust of the elites fosters distrust of the system, and the longing for great leaders who will deliver us from the selfishness of professional politicians will lead to new forms of tyranny.", "zh": "不信任精英导致不信任制度，而期盼伟大领袖让我们摆脱职业政客的自私将导致新形式的暴政。", "index": 9577}
{"en": "That may turn out to be true.", "zh": "这也许是真的。", "index": 9578}
{"en": "But, in fact, it is not really democracy that is presently under siege.", "zh": "但是，事实上，陷入重围的其实并不是民主。", "index": 9579}
{"en": "In some ways, many societies are more democratic than they were before.", "zh": "从某种角度讲，许多社会比从简更加民主了。", "index": 9580}
{"en": "If nothing else, the Donald Trump phenomenon shows that old party establishments can be skirted by popular outsiders.", "zh": "唐纳德·特朗普现象所表现的正是旧政党格局可以被当红外部人士颠覆。", "index": 9581}
{"en": "Social media also make it possible to bypass the traditional filters of authority, such as serious newspapers or broadcasters, and publish any point of view directly.", "zh": "社交媒体也让绕过传统权威滤网（如严肃的报刊或杂志）成为可能，直接发布任何观点。", "index": 9582}
{"en": "The power of private fortunes to sway public opinion, especially in the US, also upsets the traditional order.", "zh": "私人财富左右公共观点的力量也在干扰传统秩序，特别是在美国。", "index": 9583}
{"en": "Anti-elitism can be fanned by vast individual wealth, because elitism is defined less by financial clout than by education.", "zh": "反精英主义可以通过巨大的个人财富煽动，因为精英主义更大程度上由教育而非财力定义。", "index": 9584}
{"en": "Angry people swayed by the populist message are angrier at liberal professors, clever bankers, or skeptical journalists than they are at multi-billionaires.", "zh": "被民粹主义信念激怒的人民对自由派教授、聪明的银行家或怀疑派记者的愤怒要大于他们对亿万富翁的愤怒。", "index": 9585}
{"en": "(It is both President Barack Obama’s elite education and the color of his skin – or, rather, the combination of the two – that has attracted so much rage.)", "zh": "（总统奥巴马的精英教育和他的肤色 — — 或者说，是两者的结合 — — 给她带来了如此多的愤怒。 ）", "index": 9586}
{"en": "At the same time, people have more power to elect power-hungry crooks than they did before.", "zh": "与此同时，人民比以前有了更大的力量选举渴望权力的恶棍。", "index": 9587}
{"en": "Like the wild and woolly views swirling around the Internet, such figures are no longer kept at bay by traditional party elites.", "zh": "和充斥互联网的野蛮观点一样，这些人物也不再被传统政党精英压制。", "index": 9588}
{"en": "What is steadily falling away is not democracy, but the restraints that de Tocqueville thought were essential to make liberal politics work.", "zh": "稳步消退的不是民主，而是托克维尔认为是自由政治起作用的关键的约束。", "index": 9589}
{"en": "More and more, populist leaders regard their election by the majority of voters as a license to crush all political and cultural dissent.", "zh": "民粹主义领导人越来越把多数人选择了他们作为碾压一切政治和文化异见的通行证。", "index": 9590}
{"en": "De Tocqueville’s nightmare is not yet the reality in the US, but it is close to what we see in Russia, Turkey, Hungary, and perhaps Poland.", "zh": "托克维尔的噩梦还没有在美国的现实中出现，但俄罗斯、土耳其、匈牙利（也许还有波兰）的情况已经与此不远。", "index": 9591}
{"en": "Even Israel, which, despite its many obvious problems, has always had a robust democracy, is moving in this direction, with government ministers demanding proof of “state loyalty” from writers, artists, and journalists.", "zh": "甚至以色列 — — 尽管它存在诸多显而易见的问题，但一直是强大的民主国家 — — 也在走向这一方向，政府部长要求作家、艺术家和记者证明其“国家忠诚 ” 。", "index": 9592}
{"en": "It is hard to see how traditional elites are going to regain any authority.", "zh": "很难说传统精英如何继续保留任何权威。", "index": 9593}
{"en": "And yet I think de Tocqueville was right.", "zh": "但我认为托克维尔是正确的。", "index": 9594}
{"en": "Without editors, there can be no serious journalism.", "zh": "没有编辑，就不会有严肃的新闻。", "index": 9595}
{"en": "Without parties led by experienced politicians, the borders between show business and politics will disappear.", "zh": "没有由经验丰富的政客领导的政党，娱乐和政治的界线就会消失。", "index": 9596}
{"en": "Without limits placed on the appetites and prejudices of the majority, intolerance will rule.", "zh": "不对大多数人的偏好和偏见加以限制，就会让党同伐异成为规则。", "index": 9597}
{"en": "This is not a question of nostalgia or snobbery.", "zh": "这不是怀旧或势利。", "index": 9598}
{"en": "Nor is it a plea to trust anyone with a plausible air of authority.", "zh": "这也不是恳求信任任何拥有权威“气场”的人。", "index": 9599}
{"en": "Anger at the elites is not always unjust.", "zh": "对精英的愤怒并非总是不公平的。", "index": 9600}
{"en": "Globalization, immigration, and cosmopolitanism have served the interests of a highly educated minority, but sometimes at the expense of less privileged people.", "zh": "全球化、移民和世界主义符合受到良好教育的少数群体的利益，但有时会牺牲没有特权的人的利益。", "index": 9601}
{"en": "And yet, the problem identified by de Tocqueville in the 1830s is more relevant now than ever.", "zh": "但是，托克维尔在19世纪30年代所发现的问题在今天的意义比以往更大。", "index": 9602}
{"en": "Liberal democracy cannot be reduced to a popularity contest.", "zh": "自由民主决不能退化为民粹主义竞争。", "index": 9603}
{"en": "Constraints on majority rule are necessary to protect the rights of minorities, be they ethnic, religious, or intellectual.", "zh": "对多数人统治的约束是保护少数群体的必要条件，不管是种族少数群体、宗教少数群体还是知识少数群体。", "index": 9604}
{"en": "When that protection disappears, we will all end up losing the freedoms that democracy was supposed to defend.", "zh": "当这一保护消失时，我们最终将失去作为民主应有之义的自由。", "index": 9605}
{"en": "The Indispensable American Partner", "zh": "不可或缺的美国伙伴", "index": 9606}
{"en": "MADRID – The United States is gearing up for that most intoxicating (and exhausting) of political events: an open-seat race for the presidency.", "zh": "马德里—美国正在为最令人兴奋（也最令人疲惫）的政治事件做准备：总统席位的开放竞争。", "index": 9607}
{"en": "With US President Barack Obama's eight years in office coming to an end, and Vice President Joe Biden unlikely to run, the race will be without an incumbent.", "zh": "副总统拜登看起来不会参与，因此这场角逐不会有现任官员。", "index": 9608}
{"en": "As a result, the election could be less a referendum on the last eight years than a contest of ideas, with foreign policy emerging as a key topic.", "zh": "因此，这场大选也许并不是对过去八年的全民公决，而是一场思想的竞争，而外交政策正在成为其中的关键。", "index": 9609}
{"en": "As for the Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's likely nomination (despite recent revelations that she used her personal email account to conduct government business) reinforces foreign policy's centrality to the election.", "zh": "在民主党方面，前国务卿希拉里·克林顿可能获得提名（尽管最新曝光表明她使用个人电子邮件账户处理公事 ） ， 这进一步加强了外交政策在大选中的关键性。", "index": 9610}
{"en": "From my perspective as the group's only European member, the overarching message should be that the US must conceive of itself not as “the indispensable power,\" as it now does, but as “the indispensable partner.\"", "zh": "我是小组中唯一的欧洲成员，在我看来，最重要的信息应该是美国不可继续如现在那样将自己视为“不可或缺的力量 ” ， 而是将自己视为“不可或缺的伙伴 ” 。", "index": 9611}
{"en": "This is not merely a matter of semantics; such a change will require the US to re-conceive its role in the world.", "zh": "这不仅仅是语义学问题；如此挑战要求美国反思其在世界中的作用。", "index": 9612}
{"en": "But the payoff, for both the US and the liberal world order that it created, would be substantial.", "zh": "但不管对美国还是对其所创造的自由世界秩序来说，这样做的好处是无穷的。", "index": 9613}
{"en": "The key to success will be America's ability to retain the best – and abandon the worst – of that most American of notions: exceptionalism.", "zh": "成功的关键是美国能否对最“美国”的概念 — — 例外论去芜存菁。", "index": 9614}
{"en": "The sense in the US that the country is unique, with a special mission to promote prosperity, security, and freedom worldwide, has long shaped American foreign policy.", "zh": "在美国，认为本国独一无二，负有促进全球繁荣、安全和自由的特殊任务，这一观念长期以来决定着美国的外交政策。", "index": 9615}
{"en": "In doing so, he planted the seed of the values-based approach that was adopted by the US as it spearheaded the development of the rules and structures that order today's world.", "zh": "就这样，他种下了基于价值的方针的种子，美国根据这一方针领导制定了决定当今世界秩序的规则与结构。", "index": 9616}
{"en": "Those rules and structures have delivered unprecedented economic growth, benefiting all (though the US has reaped the greatest rewards).", "zh": "这些规则与结果带来了前所未有的经济增长，惠及所有人（尽管美国拿走了最大的果实 ） 。", "index": 9617}
{"en": "But, ironically, the notion of American exceptionalism often has led the US to undermine the international system that it nurtured.", "zh": "但是，讽刺的是，美国例外论常常导致美国破坏它所培养的国际体系。", "index": 9618}
{"en": "Indeed, US history reveals a persistent isolationist streak, in which the “city upon a hill\" is not a beacon, but a fortress.", "zh": "事实上，美国历史一直有一种孤立主义倾向 ， “ 山巅之城”好像不是一座灯塔，而是一座堡垒。", "index": 9619}
{"en": "At times, including over the last six years, the belief that the US is better off going it alone has led to withdrawal from the world.", "zh": "一次又一次（包括在过去六年中 ） ， 美国最好还是只顾自己的观念导致其从世界舞台中退出。", "index": 9620}
{"en": "This tendency was not a serious issue before World War II (though the people of Abyssinia and Manchuria may beg to differ).", "zh": "这一趋势在二战前并不是什么严重的问题（尽管阿比西尼亚和满洲人会提出异议 ） 。", "index": 9621}
{"en": "But today, US withdrawal from the international system that it built has serious ramifications – namely, the kind of chaos and lawlessness exemplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.", "zh": "但如今，美国从其所构建的国际体系中退出将造成严重后果 — — 即各种混乱和无法，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰就是明证。", "index": 9622}
{"en": "Yet isolationism is not America's most destructive impulse.", "zh": "但孤立主义不是美国危害最大的举动。", "index": 9623}
{"en": "Worse is its “exemptionalism\": its penchant for opting out of the rules that it promotes – and often actively enforces – elsewhere.", "zh": "更糟糕的是其“豁免论 ” （ exemptionalism ） ： 置身其在其他地区所推行 — — 并且常常积极执行 — — 的规则之外。", "index": 9624}
{"en": "Beyond the resentment that such an attitude engenders, American exemptionalism directly undermines multilateral institutions' capacity to address challenges that the US is unwilling or unable to resolve on its own.", "zh": "除了这一态度可能产生的不满之外，美国豁免论还直接影响了多边机构解决美国不愿或不能独力解决的挑战的能力。", "index": 9625}
{"en": "US President Barack Obama's administration has tried to create the illusion of a change of course in this regard, pushing “soft\" deals that allow the US to participate without submitting to binding rules.", "zh": "美国总统奥巴马政府试图营造一种状况正在改变的幻觉，推出了一些“软”协议让美国可以在不必遵守约束性规则的情况下参与。", "index": 9626}
{"en": "But, though such arrangements make for great headlines, they do not provide the stability and predictability necessary for long-term success.", "zh": "但是，尽管这样的安排吸引了大量目光，但并没有提供长期成功所需要的稳定性和可预测性。", "index": 9627}
{"en": "If the US is to serve as the world's “indispensable partner,\" it must recommit to the rules-based order that has served it – and the world – so well for the last seven decades.", "zh": "如果美国要成为世界“不可或缺的伙伴 ” ， 它就必须重新致力于在过去七十年给它 — — 以及全世界 — — 带来无穷好处的基于规则的秩序。", "index": 9628}
{"en": "It should begin by strengthening the flagging institutions that have served as the backbone of the liberal international order.", "zh": "首先，美国应该强化作为自由国际秩序基石的核心机构。", "index": 9629}
{"en": "Indispensable partnership is about helping countries help themselves.", "zh": "不可或缺的伙伴意味着帮助各国帮助自己。", "index": 9630}
{"en": "It requires vision, commitment, and, most important, leadership.", "zh": "这要求远见卓识、承诺以及（最重要的）领导力。", "index": 9631}
{"en": "A frank discussion about America's foreign policy could prove vital to ensuring that this “city upon a hill\" remains a beacon of hope – and a catalyst of progress.", "zh": "开诚布公地讨论美国外交政策将是确保这个“山巅之城”仍是希望灯塔 — — 以及进步催化剂的关键。", "index": 9632}
{"en": "American Foreign Policy after Iraq", "zh": "伊拉克之后的美国对外政策", "index": 9633}
{"en": "What comes after Iraq?", "zh": "伊拉克之后又会是什么？", "index": 9634}
{"en": "If President George W. Bush’s current troop “surge” fails to produce an outcome that can be called “victory,” what lessons will the United States draw for its future foreign policy?", "zh": "如果布什总统的部队“急流”不能交出一份可以称作“胜利”的答卷，那么美国可以从中为其未来的对外政策吸取什么样的教训呢？", "index": 9635}
{"en": "Will it turn inward, as it did after its defeat in Vietnam three decades ago?", "zh": "它会转为内向，正如30年前兵败越南之后那样么？", "index": 9636}
{"en": "Will it turn from promoting democracy to a narrow realist view of its interests?", "zh": "它会从推动民主转向为一种对自身利益的狭隘现实主义观吗？", "index": 9637}
{"en": "Even while discussion in Washington is fixated on Iraq, a number of thoughtful foreign observers are asking these longer-term questions.", "zh": "即便在华盛顿的讨论仍聚焦伊拉克的情况下，一些有思想的外交观察家已经开始提出这些长期性的问题了。", "index": 9638}
{"en": "Analysts and pundits have often been mistaken about America’s position in the world.", "zh": "分析家和专家们对美国在世界上的地位往往有错误的认识。", "index": 9639}
{"en": "For example, two decades ago, the conventional wisdom was that the US was in decline.", "zh": "例如，20年前，一般的公众观点认为美国正在衰落。", "index": 9640}
{"en": "A decade later, with the Cold War’s end, the new conventional wisdom was that the world was a unipolar American hegemony.", "zh": "10年后，随着冷战结束，新的公众观点又认为世界上只有美国一个超级霸权。", "index": 9641}
{"en": "Some neo-conservative pundits drew the conclusion that the US was so powerful that it could decide what it thought was right, and others would have to follow.", "zh": "一些新保守派专家认定美国是如此强大，以至于它可以按自己的意志决策，而其它国家不得不遵从。", "index": 9642}
{"en": "Charles Krauthammer celebrated this view as “the new unilateralism,” and it heavily influenced the Bush administration even before the attacks on September 11, 2001.", "zh": "Charles Krauthammer高调地将这种观点称为“新单边主义 ” 。 它甚至在2001年“9.11”袭击发生之前都一直对布什政府产生着重要的影响。", "index": 9643}
{"en": "But the new unilateralism was based on a profound misunderstanding of the nature of power in world politics.", "zh": "但新单边主义是基于对世界政治实力特点的深刻误解。", "index": 9644}
{"en": "Power is the ability to get the outcomes one wants.", "zh": "实力是取得需要的结果的能力。", "index": 9645}
{"en": "Whether the possession of resources will produce such outcomes depends upon the context.", "zh": "通过所拥有的资源能否获得这样的结果还依赖于环境。", "index": 9646}
{"en": "For example, a large, modern tank army is a powerful resource if a war is fought in a desert, but not if it is fought in a swamp – as America discovered in Vietnam.", "zh": "例如，如果战争在沙漠中进行，那么一支庞大的现代化坦克部队就是一种强大的资源。 但如果战事在沼泽地区进行则不然—正如美国在越南所发现的那样。", "index": 9647}
{"en": "In the past, it was assumed that military power dominated most issues, but in today’s world, the contexts of power differ greatly.", "zh": "过去，人们一般认为军事实力主导着绝大多数问题，但在当今的世界，实力的大环境千差万别。", "index": 9648}
{"en": "I have likened the distribution of power in politics today as analogous to a three-dimensional chess game.", "zh": "我把当今政治实力的分配比作一盘三维国际象棋。", "index": 9649}
{"en": "On the top board – military relations among states – the world is, indeed, unipolar, and likely to remain that way for decades.", "zh": "在上盘—国家之间的军事关系中—世界确实是单极化的，而且这种情况很可能还要持续几十年。", "index": 9650}
{"en": "But on the middle board of economic relations, the world is already multipolar, and the US cannot obtain the outcomes it wants without the cooperation of Europe, Japan, China, and others.", "zh": "但在中盘的经济关系方面，世界已经是多极化了，而美国也不可能不通过与欧洲、日本、中国和其它国家合作就获得自己需要的结果。", "index": 9651}
{"en": "And, on the bottom board of transnational issues outside the control of governments – including everything from climate change to pandemics to transnational terrorism – power is chaotically distributed, and it makes no sense at all to claim American hegemony.", "zh": "在下盘超越政府控制之外的跨国事务方面—包括从气候变化到流行疾病到跨国恐怖主义—实力的分配是混乱的，因而在这样的背景下提出美国的霸权也是毫无意义的。", "index": 9652}
{"en": "Yet it is on this bottom board that we find most of the greatest challenges we face today.", "zh": "然而正是在下盘让我们发现了当今面对的最大挑战。", "index": 9653}
{"en": "The only way to grapple with these problems is through cooperation with others, and that requires the “soft” power of attraction as well as the hard power of coercion. There is no simple military solution that will produce the outcomes we want.", "zh": "应对这些问题的唯一途径就是通过与他人合作，而这就需要吸引的“软”实力和高压的硬实力并用，而没有现成的能让我们如愿以偿的简单军事解决方案。", "index": 9654}
{"en": "The new unilateralists who dominated Bush’s first administration made the mistake of thinking that the unipolar distribution of power in the military context was sufficient to guide foreign policy.", "zh": "主导布什第一届政府的新单边主义者们错误地认为在军事环境中的实力单极化分配足以引导对外政策。", "index": 9655}
{"en": "They were like a young boy with a hammer who thinks that every problem resembles a nail.", "zh": "他们就像一个手拿锤子的小孩，认为所有的问题都像钉子一样。", "index": 9656}
{"en": "The danger of their approach is now obvious.", "zh": "他们这种思维方式的危险性在当下就显而易见了。", "index": 9657}
{"en": "Whoever plays a three-dimensional game by focusing on only one board is bound to lose in the long run.", "zh": "任何人在玩三维国际象棋游戏时，只注重某一个盘，那么从长期来看他是注定要失败的。", "index": 9658}
{"en": "Fortunately, the pendulum has begun to swing back toward cooperation.", "zh": "幸运的是，这个钟摆现在又开始滑向合作。", "index": 9659}
{"en": "In Bush’s second term, some of the most extreme unilateralists have departed from the government, and the president has approached difficult problems like North Korea or Iran with a more multilateral approach than during his first term.", "zh": "在布什的第二任期，一些最极端的单边主义者离开了政府，而总统本人在处理北朝鲜或伊朗等更复杂的问题时也采用了比在第一个任期更为多边的策略。", "index": 9660}
{"en": "Likewise, for all the complaints about the United Nations, the US and others turned to UN peacekeepers to sort out the mess after the Lebanon War last summer.", "zh": "同样，针对关于联合国的所有抱怨，美国和其它国家都通过联合国维和部队来收拾去年夏天黎巴嫩战争留下的烂摊子。", "index": 9661}
{"en": "The Iraq War, in particular, increased public awareness of the mistakes in Bush’s first term, but other issues are changing as well.", "zh": "伊拉克战争尤其加深了公众对布什在第一任期所犯错误的认识，但其它情况也在变化中。", "index": 9662}
{"en": "Americans now view cooperative action on global climate change more favorably.", "zh": "美国人现在开始以更赞许的态度来看待全球气候变化方面的合作行动。", "index": 9663}
{"en": "Similarly, the threat of pandemics means that Americans may come to recognize the importance of a stronger World Health Organization, just as the problem of nuclear proliferation is increasing awareness of the importance of the International Atomic Energy Agency.", "zh": "同样，流行性疾病的威胁意味着美国人可能会最终承认一个更强有力的世界卫生组织的重要性，正如核扩散的问题使公众更加意识到国际原子能机构的重要性一样。", "index": 9664}
{"en": "The nature of these problems means that the US does not have the luxury of turning inward no matter what the outcome in Iraq.", "zh": "这些问题的特点意味着不论伊拉克问题的结果如何，美国都没有重新回归内向政策的奢侈了。", "index": 9665}
{"en": "These are not problems you can leave overseas.", "zh": "这不是些你能留在海外的问题。", "index": 9666}
{"en": "They follow you home.", "zh": "它们会如影随形般的跟你回到国内。", "index": 9667}
{"en": "It also is unlikely that American foreign policy will return to a narrow realism and drop all emphasis on democracy and human rights.", "zh": "美国的对外政策也不大可能回到狭隘的现实主义，而不再强调民主和人权。", "index": 9668}
{"en": "While the Iraq War discredited the idea of coercive democratization, both Republicans and Democrats have a strong strand of idealism in their foreign policy orientations.", "zh": "尽管伊拉克战争令强制民主化的理念声名狼藉，共和党和民主党人在他们的对外政策取向中仍保持着强烈的理想主义色彩。", "index": 9669}
{"en": "The problem for whoever is elected president in 2008 will be to find appropriate realistic means to advance democratic values and adjust official rhetoric accordingly.", "zh": "在2008年获选总统的任何人所面临的问题都将是寻求推进民主价值观的适当的现实主义途径并对官方论调做出相应调整。", "index": 9670}
{"en": "When rhetoric greatly outstrips reality, others view it as hypocrisy.", "zh": "当官方论调凌驾于现实之上时，别人就会认为这是种虚伪。", "index": 9671}
{"en": "Americans will need to find ways to assert their narrative of democracy, freedom, and rights in a manner that respects diversity and the views of others.", "zh": "美国人需要找到一种尊重多样性和他人观点的方式来宣扬他们对民主、自由和权利的坚持。", "index": 9672}
{"en": "What Iraq has taught is the importance of developing civil society and the rule of law before trying to hold broad-based elections.", "zh": "伊拉克给我们提供的教训是在试图举行广泛的选举之前先发展公民社会和健全法制的重要性。", "index": 9673}
{"en": "Democracy is more than voting, for it requires large investments in education, institutions, and promotion of non-governmental organizations.", "zh": "民主不仅仅是选举，因为它还需要在教育、制度和推动非政府组织发展方面进行大量的投入。", "index": 9674}
{"en": "It must be rooted in the indigenous society and bear its characteristics, not be imposed from abroad.", "zh": "它必须是植根于本地社会并承袭其特点，而不是被强加的舶来品。", "index": 9675}
{"en": "It is highly unlikely that the US will react after Iraq as it did after Vietnam.", "zh": "美国在伊拉克战争之后做出类似越战后的反应的可能性微乎其微。", "index": 9676}
{"en": "The paradox of American power is that the world’s only military superpower cannot protect its citizens by acting alone.", "zh": "美国实力的悖论在于：这个世界唯一的军事超级大国靠单打独斗无法保护其公民。", "index": 9677}
{"en": "US Foreign Policy After the Midterm Election", "zh": "中期选举之后的美国外交政策", "index": 9678}
{"en": "WASHINGTON, DC – One thing missing from the recent US midterm election campaigns was a focus on foreign policy.", "zh": "发自华盛顿特区 — — 最近各类美国中期选举拉票活动都遗漏了一点 — — 外交政策。", "index": 9679}
{"en": "While much was made of the migrant caravan making its way from Central America through Mexico, issues such as trade with China, Iran, North Korea, and even Russia and cyber subterfuge didn’t get much traction.", "zh": "虽然对从中美洲取道墨西哥前往美国的移民大篷车多有讨论，但与中国、伊朗，朝鲜甚至俄罗斯的贸易以及网络暗战等事务都没有得到太多关注。", "index": 9680}
{"en": "With the Democratic Party having regained control of the US House of Representatives, that will change.", "zh": "而随着民主党重新控制美国众议院，这一情况将发生改变。", "index": 9681}
{"en": "A cornered President Donald Trump is likely to turn to a favorite tactic of autocrats everywhere: manufacturing foreign-policy crises to distract the public’s attention from problems at home.", "zh": "走投无路的美国总统特朗普可能会转而使用世界各地独裁者都最喜欢的策略：制造外交政策危机以分散公众对本土问题的注意力。", "index": 9682}
{"en": "Trump’s determination to control media headlines makes him all the more likely, when it suits him, to call attention to the troubles in the Middle East, rediscover the North Korean nuclear threat, and force the Democrats to make a tough choice between being hard on Russia or getting into an arms race.", "zh": "特朗普控制媒体头条的决心使得他更有可能在时机到来时激起对中东问题的关注，重新发现朝鲜的核威胁，以及迫使民主党人在对俄强硬或进入军备竞赛之间作出艰难的选择。", "index": 9683}
{"en": "Trump may also decide to use Congress as a foreign-policy foil, tossing international challenges back into the lap of lawmakers, who will be hard-pressed to come up with good answers.", "zh": "特朗普也可能决定将国会用作外交政策挡箭牌，将国际挑战甩回到立法者手里从而把寻求良好应对措施的压力转移到他们肩上。", "index": 9684}
{"en": "After all, in Trump’s zero-sum “I win, you lose” view of the world, congressional failures that he can blame on the Democrats are almost as good as White House successes.", "zh": "毕竟在特朗普“我赢你输”的零和式世界观中，可以赖到民主党身上的国会败局几乎和白宫的成功一样美好。", "index": 9685}
{"en": "With the US House of Representatives under “new management,” including a record number of Democratic women, Trump has a tempting target.", "zh": "随着美国众议院被置于“新管理层”之下（包括创纪录的民主党女议员人数 ） ， 特朗普有了一个诱人的目标。", "index": 9686}
{"en": "He has every incentive to show the newcomers up by passing the ball and watching them fail.", "zh": "他有足够的动力去让那些新来者难堪，只要把事情丢给他们并坐观其败就行了。", "index": 9687}
{"en": "In this new contest to pass the blame, Syria is ripe for the picking.", "zh": "在这新一轮的推卸责任竞赛中，叙利亚问题正好可以拿来使用。", "index": 9688}
{"en": "Eliot Engel, the incoming chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has already said that the Democrats may seek congressional authorization for the use of military force in Syria.", "zh": "即将就任众议院外交事务委员会主席的艾略特·恩格尔（Eliot Engel）已经表示民主党可能会寻求国会授权在叙利亚使用武力。", "index": 9689}
{"en": "But no one, Democrat or Republican, has a plausible plan either for ending the war in Syria or even for helping Syrian civilians in significant numbers, other than making it risky for Syria’s ruler, Bashar al-Assad, to use chemical weapons too blatantly.", "zh": "但除了能令叙利亚统治者巴沙尔·阿萨德不再过于贸然地使用化学武器外，无论是民主党人或共和党人没有一个可信的计划去结束叙利亚战争或大量帮助叙利亚平民。", "index": 9690}
{"en": "Any move the Democrats make will be unpopular with their own voters and will simply shift attention from Trump’s inability to solve the problem to their own lack of a plan.", "zh": "民主党做出的任何举动都不会受到选民的欢迎，只会将特朗普无法解决问题的注意力转移到他们自身计划的缺失之上。", "index": 9691}
{"en": "Iran presents Trump with another opportunity to inflict political damage on the Democrats.", "zh": "而伊朗则为特朗普提供了另一个政治上打击民主党人的机会。", "index": 9692}
{"en": "Trump followed through on his threat in January to withdraw the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal – formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – if Congress didn’t “fix” it.", "zh": "特朗普会继续推动他在今年1月提出将美国从2015年伊朗核协议（正式称为《联合全面行动计划 》 ） 的威胁，除非国会能“修补”该协议。", "index": 9693}
{"en": "Specifically, he wanted the ability to reimpose sanctions on Iran, which he did earlier this month.", "zh": "具体而言，他希望重新获得伊制裁的能力，正如他本月早些时候所做的那样。", "index": 9694}
{"en": "Sanctions, Trump has long maintained, would force Iran to negotiate. That has not happened and is unlikely to happen.", "zh": "特朗普一直以来都坚称制裁将迫使伊朗进行谈判，但这种情况从发生也不太可能发生。", "index": 9695}
{"en": "To push Iran toward the negotiating table, and, more importantly, assert his authority and save face, Trump might be tempted to heighten tensions, if not provoke Iran into a confrontation.", "zh": "为了推动伊朗走向谈判桌，更重要的是维护自身权威并挽回面子，特朗普可能会试图加剧紧张局势，只要不会激发伊朗的对抗。", "index": 9696}
{"en": "And here, Engel might be forced to play along.", "zh": "到那时候恩格尔可能会被迫入局。", "index": 9697}
{"en": "Engel has said that Iran is the “most dangerous player” in the Middle East, and he was a vocal opponent of the JCPOA.", "zh": "恩格尔曾表示伊朗是中东地区“最危险的参与者 ” ， 他本人也是伊朗核协议的反对者。", "index": 9698}
{"en": "Though he supported the deal after it was signed and opposed withdrawing from it, Trump could use Engel’s own position on Iran to push him to adopt a more aggressive posture or risk appearing “weak” on national security.", "zh": "虽然恩格尔在协议签署后转而表示支持并反对退出协议，但特朗普可以利用前者自身在伊朗问题上的立场去推动他采取更激进的态度或冒险在国家安全方面表现“软弱 ” 。", "index": 9699}
{"en": "But the payoff is likely to be a foreign-policy crisis that produces no meaningful progress toward a new nuclear deal and plenty of blame to go around.", "zh": "但这最终可能会导向一场外交政策危机，不但在新的核协议上没有取得任何有意义的进展，还会留下诸多口实供各方互相指责。", "index": 9700}
{"en": "The Democrats also provide Trump an out on North Korea.", "zh": "民主党人也在朝鲜问题向特朗普露出了破绽。", "index": 9701}
{"en": "Back in June, Engel introduced the North Korea Nuclear Baseline Act, which would require the White House to report on the status of North Korea’s nuclear program and provide a “baseline” of progress for continued talks.", "zh": "早在今年6月恩格尔就推出了《朝鲜核基线法案 》 ， 该法案将要求白宫报告朝鲜核计划的进展状况，并为继续谈判提供一条进展“基线 ” 。", "index": 9702}
{"en": "Engel has already said he will call a hearing on the talks.", "zh": "恩格尔已经表示他将针对相关谈判召集一场听证会。", "index": 9703}
{"en": "Whatever is said in that hearing could provide North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with a ready excuse to renege on his already-vague denuclearization agreement with Trump.", "zh": "但听证会上发表的任何言论都可以为朝鲜领导人金正恩提供一个借口去违反与特朗普那本就含糊不清的无核化协议。", "index": 9704}
{"en": "The US president, Kim could argue, can no longer be trusted with a hostile Congress at his back.", "zh": "金正恩可以辩解说一个不能得到背后敌对国会支持的美国总统是不值得信任的。", "index": 9705}
{"en": "Perhaps in anticipation of a Democratic-led House and a subsequent Democratic pile-on regarding Russia, Trump withdrew the US from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in October, citing Russian violations.", "zh": "也许是预期到了一个民主党领导的众议院以及随后民主党在俄罗斯问题上连篇累牍的抨击，特朗普在10月份借口俄罗斯违规而撤出了《中程核力量条约 》 。", "index": 9706}
{"en": "Signed in 1987 by Ronald Reagan and Soviet premier Mikhail Gorbachev, the INF required both the US and Russia to eliminate ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles. The US withdrawal from it signals the start of a new arms race.", "zh": "该条约由罗纳德·里根和苏共总书记米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫于1987年签署，要求双方销毁地面发射的弹道导弹和巡航导弹，而美国的撤出则标志着新一轮军备竞赛的开始。", "index": 9707}
{"en": "Trump has already called for an increase in defense spending and the launch of a “space force”.", "zh": "特朗普已经呼吁要增加国防开支并启动“太空力量”的建立。", "index": 9708}
{"en": "As Democrats focus on Russian interference in the 2016 US elections, Trump’s ties to Russia, and the details of Trump’s closed-door conversation with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Helsinki in July, they will be faced with the prospect of signing off on increased defense spending or else appearing dithering and hypocritical on Russia.", "zh": "鉴于民主党对俄罗斯干预2016年美国大选，特朗普与俄罗斯关系以及特朗普7月份在赫尔辛基与俄罗斯总统普京闭门对话的关注，他们将面临着签署追加国防开支的前景，否则就是在俄罗斯问题上首鼠两端和表现虚伪。", "index": 9709}
{"en": "Much of the world breathed a sigh of relief at the Democrats’ recapture of the House, because it signaled a vulnerability in Trump’s aggressively anti-liberal “America First” approach to the world order.", "zh": "民主党重夺众议院后世界大部分人都松了一口气，因为这标志着特朗普积极反自由的“美国优先”世界秩序手段是站不住脚的。", "index": 9710}
{"en": "But Democrats should resist the urge to try correcting Trump’s perceived wrongs.", "zh": "但民主党人应该抵制试图纠正特朗普错误的冲动。", "index": 9711}
{"en": "The House has just enough power to get into foreign-policy trouble and not enough to get out of it or to adopt and implement a coherent strategy.", "zh": "众议院只是刚好有力量去介入外交政策的乱局，但还没有足够力量去摆脱它或采取和实施一套连续性的战略。", "index": 9712}
{"en": "The Democrats’ best bet is to let Trump take the lead on global affairs, however unsavory, and actively work to check and balance his actions.", "zh": "民主党最好的选择是让特朗普在全球事务中起带头作用，无论多么令人讨厌，并积极努力去制衡他的行为。", "index": 9713}
{"en": "Oversight and the power of the purse will be their most powerful tools.", "zh": "监督和财权将是他们最强大的工具。", "index": 9714}
{"en": "In the end, Trump will need House Democrats for money, sanctions, or approval of trade agreements.", "zh": "最终特朗普还是需要争取众议院民主党人以获取拨款，制裁或批准贸易协议。", "index": 9715}
{"en": "If they play their cards right, he will have to deal them in. If they don’t, they will find that Trump still holds a much stronger hand.", "zh": "如果他们能行使正确的策略，他将不得不跟他们妥协；但如果他们没做到这一点，他们会发现特朗普仍然具备强大的实力。", "index": 9716}
{"en": "American Foreign Policy After the Mid-Term Elections", "zh": "中期选举之后的美国外交政策", "index": 9717}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Few Americans cast their ballot in the recent mid-term elections on the basis of foreign policy.", "zh": "发自纽约 — — 在本次中期选举中，只有为数不多的美国人是基于外交政策的原因而投票的。", "index": 9718}
{"en": "While it may be difficult for people around the world to comprehend this, given the global reach of the United States, it is an undeniable fact.", "zh": "鉴于美国的全球影响力，世界其他地方的人们可能难以理解这一点，但这却是一个合理的事实。", "index": 9719}
{"en": "Most Americans are, after all, preoccupied with the US economy’s sluggish growth and persistent high unemployment.", "zh": "毕竟绝大多数美国人都将精力放在了国内的增长停滞和长期高失业率之上。", "index": 9720}
{"en": "The world’s challenges seem far removed from their day-to-day lives.", "zh": "而那些全球危机似乎离他们的日常生活太遥远了。", "index": 9721}
{"en": "The Cold War ended a generation ago; the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, are nearly a decade in the past.", "zh": "冷战结束已经是上一代人的话题；9·11恐怖袭击也已经过去将近十年。", "index": 9722}
{"en": "Most Americans do not feel the sacrifices associated with the large troop presence and ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq.", "zh": "大多数美国人都对派驻阿富汗和伊拉克的庞大军队所付出的牺牲毫无知觉。", "index": 9723}
{"en": "But the fact that foreign policy did not materially affect the November elections does not mean that the results will not affect US foreign policy.", "zh": "虽然外交政策并未对本次中期选举产生重大影响，但这却不意味着选举结果不会影响美国的外交政策。", "index": 9724}
{"en": "They will, but in ways that are inconsistent and even surprising.", "zh": "影响是必然的，但会以一种反复无常甚至令人大吃一惊的方式。", "index": 9725}
{"en": "One relationship sure to be influenced by Republican gains will be that between the US and Russia.", "zh": "共和党占优的形势必将影响到美俄关系。", "index": 9726}
{"en": "Quick or easy Senate approval of the New START arms-control treaty is highly unlikely, given stated concerns about verification and the protection of US missile-defense programs; instead, we can expect delays and, possibly, attempts to amend what the two governments already agreed upon.", "zh": "参议院将无法迅速或轻易地批准新的《削减战略武器条约 》 ， 因为议员们对如何核实战略武器数量与美国导弹防御系统防御能力的都心里没底。 与于是乎，我们将会看到对条约的拖延，甚至对两国政府业已达成的协议的反对。", "index": 9727}
{"en": "Congress may also prove less willing to remove hurdles to Russia’s admission to the World Trade Organization, given what is widely judged to be its leaders’ anti-democratic behavior.", "zh": "众议院估计也不太会移除对俄罗斯加入世贸的诸多障碍，因为大家都对俄罗斯领导人的反民主行为感到反感。", "index": 9728}
{"en": "China, too, will feel the results of the new balance in Congress.", "zh": "中国也会感觉到两党重新划分众议院势力的影响。", "index": 9729}
{"en": "Pressure was already growing to introduce trade sanctions in response to China’s refusal to allow its currency to rise to a natural level against the dollar.", "zh": "事实上，已经有越来越多的压力要求对中国拒绝令其货币兑美元升值到一个合理水平的做法实施贸易制裁。", "index": 9730}
{"en": "Such pressure will likely grow, given concerns over Chinese behavior both at home and abroad.", "zh": "这些压力将越来越大，因为大家对中国在其国内和国外的所做所为都有意见。", "index": 9731}
{"en": "Moreover, Congress will resist rolling back any of the long-standing economic sanctions against Cuba.", "zh": "此外，中国将抵制美国取消对古巴的任何长期制裁。", "index": 9732}
{"en": "President Barack Obama has the authority to take some small steps on his own to normalize ties, but substantial change to US policy requires Congress to act – and Congress wants to see fundamental change in Cuba before it does so.", "zh": "美国总统奥巴马有足够的权威区在美国-古巴关系正常化的道路上取得一些微小进展，但长期的改变则需要参议院批准 — — 但参议院却希望在解除制裁之前能看到古巴发生一些根本性的变化。", "index": 9733}
{"en": "There will be other consequences stemming from the election.", "zh": "选举还将带来其他一些后果。", "index": 9734}
{"en": "What little chance there was of the US backing any global plan to limit or tax carbon emissions has disappeared.", "zh": "美国支持关于限制或者征收碳排放税的任何全球方案的微小可能性都已彻底破灭。", "index": 9735}
{"en": "Improvement in US performance on climate change will have to come from innovation and increased energy efficiency.", "zh": "美国在这方面的改善只能依靠科技创新和提高能源利用效率了。", "index": 9736}
{"en": "One can anticipate the Republicans, now in control of the House of Representatives, exploiting their ability to convene hearings to question and review foreign policy.", "zh": "人们可以预见到，目前控制了众议院���共和党人将利用手中的权力召开质疑或检讨当前外交政策的听证会。", "index": 9737}
{"en": "Depending on how this power is used (or abused), it can be beneficial (exercising needed oversight and increasing the transparency of policy and policy-making) or destructive (if, for example, hearings degenerate into politically motivated attacks on administration officials and policies).", "zh": "取决于他们如何使用（或者滥用）这些权力，结果可能是有益的（实施必要的监察或者提高外交政策制定的透明度）或是有害的（比如说听证会可能异化成对某些官员和政策的政治攻击 ） 。", "index": 9738}
{"en": "In many other areas, continuity can be expected to trump change.", "zh": "而在其他许多领域，政策的持续性将不会有什么变化。", "index": 9739}
{"en": "This comes as little surprise, as America’s Constitution and political system delegate most of the initiative on foreign policy and defense to the president.", "zh": "这毫不奇怪，因为美国的宪法和政治系统将大多数外交和国防事务交由总统承担。", "index": 9740}
{"en": "Yes, Congress must declare war, approve spending, agree to most senior appointments, and (in the case of the Senate) ratify treaties, but the president has enormous latitude when it comes to carrying out diplomacy and using military force in situations other than war, which tend to be most situations.", "zh": "国会可以宣战，批准预算，通过大多数高级官员任命，以及（就参议院来说）提准条约，但在绝大多数情况下，总统在执行外交或者除了战争之外的军事行动方面都拥有极大的自由度。", "index": 9741}
{"en": "One area of probable continuity is the Middle East, where Obama will continue to try to broker a deal between Israelis and Palestinians and press Iran not to develop nuclear weapons.", "zh": "其中一个能保留政策持续性的领域可能是中东，因为奥巴马将继续尝试促成以巴双方的和平条约，并迫使伊朗放弃发展核武器（共和党人一直都要求不要向以色列施加过多压力，而对伊朗采取更强硬手段 ） 。", "index": 9742}
{"en": "(Republicans, however will argue for putting less pressure on Israel to compromise and more pressure on Iran.)  But he can expect considerable backing from Republicans if he wants to maintain a sizeable US military presence in Afghanistan beyond this July, or a modest military presence in Iraq beyond the end of 2011.", "zh": "但如果奥巴马想要在今年7月后在阿富汗维持一直相当数量的部队，或是在2011年末以后在伊拉克维持适度的军事存在，他都是可以得到共和党相当程度上的支持的。", "index": 9743}
{"en": "Questions abound when it comes to foreign economic policy, however.", "zh": "但在经济外交政策方面则存在着许多问题。", "index": 9744}
{"en": "Three completed trade agreements (with South Korea, Panama, and Colombia) have been languishing for years, mostly because of deep opposition to free trade from labor unions and the Democratic Party.", "zh": "三项全面贸易条约（与韩国，巴拿马和哥伦比亚）已经在工会和民主党的阻挠下拖延了几年时间。", "index": 9745}
{"en": "Republicans have historically been more supportive of such bilateral free-trade agreements.", "zh": "而共和党一直以来对这类双边自由贸易条约都是表示支持的。", "index": 9746}
{"en": "But will the new generation of Republicans continue this tradition?", "zh": "但新一代共和党人是否会坚持这一传统？", "index": 9747}
{"en": "There is a fair chance that one or more of these bilateral accords will be approved (in part because the Obama administration seems finally to have recognized that trade can generate good jobs), but it is far less certain that the president will gain the authority needed to negotiate a new global trade deal.", "zh": "这是那几项双边条约获得通过的好机会（其中一部分原因是奥巴马政府似乎最终意识到贸易可以催生新的工作机会 ） ， 但更不确定的则是总统是否有足够的权威去商讨一个新的全球贸易协定。", "index": 9748}
{"en": "An even bigger question mark hovers over what might be the greatest national security concern of all: the federal budget deficit.", "zh": "而一个更重要的问题则是所谓最大的国家安全问题：联邦债务赤字。", "index": 9749}
{"en": "Failure to address the deficit (and the mounting debt) will create pressures to reduce what the US spends on foreign aid, intelligence, and defense – although Republicans are more likely than Democrats to protect such spending (except for foreign aid).", "zh": "如果无法解决赤字（以及不断堆积的债务）的话，那么美国的对外援助，情报和国防事务都将面临巨大的压力 — — 即便共和党人比民主党人更倾向于维持这部分经费（对外援助除外 ） 。", "index": 9750}
{"en": "Mounting debt also leaves the US vulnerable to the decisions of those who lend it money – or to the vagaries of the market.", "zh": "不断增加的债务将迫使美国向那些国际债主们俯首称臣，或是无法承受市场的突然波动。", "index": 9751}
{"en": "A dollar crisis could weaken the foundations of American power.", "zh": "美元危机将影响到美国的全球权力基础。", "index": 9752}
{"en": "But averting such a crisis requires that the White House and Congress, Democrats and Republicans, agree on a plan for moving the US budget toward balance.", "zh": "但克服这一危机则需要白宫和国会，以及民主党和共和党双方都能在促使美国实现财政平衡方面达成共识。", "index": 9753}
{"en": "Alas, the election makes such agreement more distant than ever.", "zh": "无奈的是，中期选举却令这类共识离我们更加遥远了。", "index": 9754}
{"en": "America’s Global Balancing Act", "zh": "美国的全球平衡行动", "index": 9755}
{"en": "With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, the disintegration of Iraq’s and Syria’s borders, and increasing Chinese assertiveness in the South and East China Seas, the post-Cold War era appears to have ended in 2014.", "zh": "俄罗斯入侵乌克兰并吞并克里米亚；伊拉克和叙利亚分崩离析；中国在南海和东海日益嚣张 — — 考虑到这些发面，后冷战时代似乎已经在2014年结束了。", "index": 9756}
{"en": "Is that true?", "zh": "真的如此吗？", "index": 9757}
{"en": "The post-Cold War era was not really an “era,” but rather a gradual transition from a bilateral Cold War to a more complex international order that still involves, in the final analysis, two world powers.", "zh": "后冷战时代不是真正的“时代 ” ， 而是一个从双边对峙的冷战最终分析仍存在两个超级大国的更加复杂的国际秩序的逐渐转变时期。", "index": 9758}
{"en": "In brief, the decisive axis of the new order increasingly involves the United States and the People’s Republic of China.", "zh": "简单说，决定新秩序的轴心已经日益明确 — — 美国和中华人民共和国。", "index": 9759}
{"en": "The Sino-American competition involves two significant realities that distinguish it from the Cold War: neither party is excessively ideological in its orientation; and both parties recognize that they really need mutual accommodation.", "zh": "中美竞争包含了两个重要事实，使其与冷战区分开来：双方对于方向问题都不过分意识形态化；双方都认识到它们真的需要相互迁就。", "index": 9760}
{"en": "America’s supposed “pivot to Asia” took a back seat in 2014 to the crises in Ukraine and the Middle East.", "zh": "2014年，美国的“重返亚洲”政策因为乌克兰和中东危机而变得不再显眼。", "index": 9761}
{"en": "To what extent has uncertainty about the US commitment in Asia stoked tension between China and America’s Asian allies?", "zh": "美国的亚洲承诺的不确定性如何助长了中国和美国的亚洲盟国之间的紧张？", "index": 9762}
{"en": "I disagree with the premises of the question.", "zh": "我不同意这个问题的前提。", "index": 9763}
{"en": "I do think America has made it quite clear that it is in the interest both of America and China to avoid situations in which they will be pushed toward a collision.", "zh": "我确实认为美国非常清楚地表示，避免让中美双方陷入会把它们推向冲突的局面符合双方的利益。", "index": 9764}
{"en": "The recent indications of some initial dialogue between China and India, and between China and Japan, suggest that China also realizes that escalating old grievances is not in its interest.", "zh": "最近的一些中印、中日之间初步对话的迹象表明，中国也认识到煽动旧仇恨不符合它的利益。", "index": 9765}
{"en": "The more serious problem with the “pivot to Asia” was its actual wording, which implied a military posture designed to “contain” or “isolate” China.", "zh": "“重返亚洲”所包含的更加严重的问题是它的实际用词，其中暗含要“遏制”或“孤立”中国的军事姿态。", "index": 9766}
{"en": "The Chinese have come to realize more clearly that we were not deliberately attempting to isolate them, but that we had a stake in the avoidance of collisions in the Far East that could produce a wider spillover.", "zh": "中国人已经更清楚地认识到我们不是故意试图孤立他们，而是避免可能产生更广泛的溢出效应的远东冲突对我们来说意义重大。", "index": 9767}
{"en": "Xi Jinping has used his war on corruption to concentrate more power in his hands than any Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping, 30 years ago.", "zh": "习近平用其反腐斗争巩固更多的权力，这是30年前邓小平以来从未有过的。", "index": 9768}
{"en": "How do you see Xi’s presidency evolving?", "zh": "你认为习近平的任期会如何发展？", "index": 9769}
{"en": "Power in China is somewhat informally defined, and its limits are set more by political realities than by constitutional arrangements.", "zh": "从某种程度上讲，中国的权力界定不那么正式，其权力的边界更多地由政治现实而不是宪法安排决定。", "index": 9770}
{"en": "That makes it difficult to say whether Xi’s power is greater than any Chinese leader’s since Deng.", "zh": "因此，很难说习近平的权力比邓小平以来的任何一位中国领导人更大。", "index": 9771}
{"en": "He certainly has an authoritative personality and without doubt is more active on the international scene than some of his predecessors.", "zh": "他显然是一个拥有权威的人，并且毫无疑问比他的几位前任在国际舞台上更加活跃。", "index": 9772}
{"en": "He has also been very decisive in attacking the growing corruption that has become a major source of internal malaise, reaching even the highest levels of government.", "zh": "在打击业已成为国内顽症、甚至已蔓延到政府最高成的日益猖獗的腐败方面，他也比几位前任更加果断。", "index": 9773}
{"en": "In that respect, it may be argued that his power is more wide-ranging than that of his predecessors, but in fairness it must also be noted that the patterns of corruption that his predecessors faced were not as acute and widespread as they have become in recent years.", "zh": "从这个角度讲，或许可以说他的权力范围比他的前任们更广，但在公正方面，你还必须注意到，他的前任所面临的腐败方式没有最近几年那样赤裸裸和普遍。", "index": 9774}
{"en": "At the same time, the increasing emphasis in party journals on the proposition that China’s armed forces must be viewed as servants of the Communist Party, and not simply of the nation, seems to suggest concern that the military may be developing its own view of Chinese domestic affairs, in addition to proclaiming with increasing assertiveness its responsibility for national security.", "zh": "与此同时，党报日益强调党指挥枪、反对军队国家化，这似乎表明存在一种担心，即军队除了在捍卫国家安全责任方面变得日益强硬之外，也正在产生他们自身对中国内政的看法。", "index": 9775}
{"en": "The Party elite, quite understandably, does not find this reassuring.", "zh": "不难理解，中共精英对此感到十分不安。", "index": 9776}
{"en": "Can Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime withstand a prolonged period of low energy prices and Western sanctions?", "zh": "俄罗斯总统普京的政权能够抵挡长时期的低油价和西方制裁吗？", "index": 9777}
{"en": "What risks do you see emerging should Russia’s economy continue to decline, with Putin increasingly unable to reward his political base?", "zh": "你认为如果俄罗斯经济继续衰退，普京在奖赏他的政治基础方面日益力不从心，会产生什么后果？", "index": 9778}
{"en": "There is, of course, a danger that at some point Putin may choose to lash out and create a truly massive international crisis, and perhaps precipitate some new form of direct East-West warfare.", "zh": "当然，在某个点上普京也许会选择孤注一掷，制造真正的大规模国际危机，也许还会引爆新形式的东西方直接战争，这种危险是存在的。", "index": 9779}
{"en": "But to say that, one must also assume that to some extent he himself is unbalanced and has shifted from a kind of guerilla warfare against the West, always with some possibility of retreat, to all-out combat.", "zh": "但果真如此的话，我们还必须假设，在某种程度上，他本人已经失衡，从对西方的某种游击战 — — 永远存在撤退的可能 — — 转变为孤注一掷的战争。", "index": 9780}
{"en": "The outcome of that would be inherently unpredictable, but probably in any case very destructive for Russian wellbeing.", "zh": "这一情况的结果具有内在不可预测性，但也许无论如何对俄罗斯人的福祉来说都是一场灾难。", "index": 9781}
{"en": "If Russia’s economy continues to decline, and if the West succeeds in deterring Putin from further use of force, it is still conceivable that some acceptable resolution (a form of which I recommended publicly by talking about the Finland model) may be contrived.", "zh": "如果俄罗斯经济继续衰退，并且西方继续威慑普京使之不敢扩大武力，我们仍然可以认为可以形成某种可接受的解决方案（我在谈及芬兰模式时曾公开建议过 ） 。", "index": 9782}
{"en": "But that depends in turn on the West’s firmness in supporting Ukraine’s efforts to stabilize itself.", "zh": "但这反过来取决于西方在支持乌克兰稳定自身方面有多坚定。", "index": 9783}
{"en": "Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, much of the world now perceives the US as being in a period of “retreat,” similar to the post-Vietnam War era.", "zh": "美军撤出阿富汗和伊拉克后，世界上有许多人现在认为美国已经入“撤退”期，就像越战后时代那样。", "index": 9784}
{"en": "Is the US embracing a form of neo-isolationism?", "zh": "美国正在采取某种形式的新孤立主义吗？", "index": 9785}
{"en": "Or will America’s apparent inward turn be as brief as it was following Vietnam?", "zh": "还是说，美国显而易见的向内转和越战之后一样只是短暂现象？", "index": 9786}
{"en": "I do not believe that the US is in a “period of retreat.”", "zh": "我不认为美国进入了“撤退期 ” 。", "index": 9787}
{"en": "The fact of the matter is that the redistribution of global power has produced a situation in which the US is no longer the sole hegemon.", "zh": "重要的事实是全球实力的再分配产生了一个美国不再是唯一霸权的局面。", "index": 9788}
{"en": "The US has to acknowledge the fact that the world is now much more complex.", "zh": "美国必须承认一个事实，即现在的世界比以前复杂得多。", "index": 9789}
{"en": "The spread of conflict throughout the Middle East is currently precipitated more by the rise of religious sectarianism than by American interventionism.", "zh": "中东地区的冲突蔓延更多地是拜宗教门户之见崛起所赐，而不是因为美国的干涉。", "index": 9790}
{"en": "In these volatile circumstances, greater attention must be given to the national interests of countries such as Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel.", "zh": "在这些暴力环境下，必须将更多注意力放在土耳其、伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、埃及和以色列等国家的国家利益上。", "index": 9791}
{"en": "By the same token, the interests of any one of them must not be allowed to become the total interest of the US.", "zh": "同理，这些国家中的任何一国的利益决不能成为美国的总利益。", "index": 9792}
{"en": "What may surprise the world most in 2015?", "zh": "2015年什么事情能给世界带来最大的意外？", "index": 9793}
{"en": "Perhaps the gradual reappearance in Russia of a more politically assertive liberal middle class.", "zh": "也许是俄罗斯逐渐在再现政治上更积极的自由中产阶级。", "index": 9794}
{"en": "That middle class was beginning to play a more significant role in shaping domestic and international Russian policy under Dmitri Medvedev.", "zh": "在梅德韦杰夫时期，这一中产阶级开始在俄罗斯国内和国际政策中扮演更加重要的角色。", "index": 9795}
{"en": "With Putin’s return to power and his recent adventurism, it has been pushed aside by deliberately awakened and intensely stimulated national chauvinism.", "zh": "随着普京重回宝座并且采取了最近的冒险主义，自由中产阶级被刻意唤醒并且密集刺激的民族沙文主义所压制。", "index": 9796}
{"en": "Waving a chauvinist banner, however, may not be the best solution for dealing with international problems, especially if the West is intelligent and united. The Russian middle class, quite naturally, wishes to live in a society like that of Western Europe.", "zh": "但是，高举沙文主义的大旗也许并不是处理国际问题的最佳方案，特别是在面临明智而团结的西方的情况下。", "index": 9797}
{"en": "A Russia that gradually begins to gravitate toward the West will also be a Russia that ceases to disrupt the international system.", "zh": "逐渐开始被西方吸引的俄罗斯也将是一个停止干扰国际制度的俄罗斯。", "index": 9798}
{"en": "America’s Enemy Within", "zh": "美国国内的敌人", "index": 9799}
{"en": "NEW YORK – Barring any unexpected new revelations, there is not much to be learned from the Tsarnaev brothers, better known as “the Boston bombers.”", "zh": "纽约 — — 除出人意料的事实真相外，从察尔纳耶夫兄弟（也叫“波士顿兄弟 ” ） 身上再也得不到什么新的东西。", "index": 9800}
{"en": "We can dig into their family histories in strife-torn Dagestan, or examine, once again, the lethal appeal of Islamist radicalism.", "zh": "我们可以挖掘俩兄弟在倍受纷争蹂躏的家乡达吉斯坦的家庭史，也可以再次审视伊斯兰激进主义的致命吸引力。", "index": 9801}
{"en": "But I doubt that this would be enlightening.", "zh": "但我怀疑这样做有没有意义。", "index": 9802}
{"en": "The elder brother, Tamerlan, who died in a gun battle with the police, appears to fit perfectly the profile of what the German writer Hans Magnus Enzensberger calls “the radical loser.”", "zh": "在与警方交火中丧生的哥哥塔梅兰似乎是德国作家汉斯·马格努斯·恩岑斯贝格口中“激进失败者”的典型。", "index": 9803}
{"en": "And his younger brother, Dzhokhar, recovering from gunshot wounds in a Boston hospital while waiting to be put on trial for his life, seems to have been a pathetic follower who acted less out of deep conviction than out of fraternal love.", "zh": "而正在波士顿医院接受枪伤治疗并等待接受死刑审判的弟弟焦哈尔与其说因为信仰参与恐怖活动，还不如说是因为兄弟情谊而被牵扯其中的可怜的追随者。", "index": 9804}
{"en": "The radical loser is the kind of young man who feels victimized by an unfeeling, uncaring world.", "zh": "激进失败者是指那些感觉被绝情、冷漠的世界抛弃的年轻人。", "index": 9805}
{"en": "That sour sense of rejection, felt by many confused youths, turns for some into a fierce desire for vengeance.", "zh": "很多困惑的年轻人那种酸楚的被抛弃感，在某些人身上化成了强烈的复仇欲。", "index": 9806}
{"en": "Like Samson in the temple of Gaza, he wishes to destroy himself in a public act of violence, taking as many people as possible with him.", "zh": "像加沙寺庙中的萨姆森一样，他追求公众暴力中的自我毁灭，让尽可能多的人给他陪葬。", "index": 9807}
{"en": "Anything can trigger this final act: a lover’s rejection, a job application denied.", "zh": "情侣分手、工作申请被拒，任何小事均可触发这场最后的疯狂。", "index": 9808}
{"en": "In the case of Tamerlan, a talented boxer, he was denied the chance to become a champion because he was not yet a United States citizen.", "zh": "具体到天才拳手塔梅兰，他因为不是美国公民而失去了登上冠军宝座的机会。", "index": 9809}
{"en": "Radical Islamism offered him a ready-made cause to die for.", "zh": "激进伊斯兰主义为他提供了为事业献身的现成的机会。", "index": 9810}
{"en": "More interesting, and in a way far more disturbing, has been the reaction in the US to the Boston bombings, which killed three people and injured 264.", "zh": "美国对致3人死亡、264人受伤的波士顿爆炸事件的反应非常有趣，在某种意义上也更耐人寻味。", "index": 9811}
{"en": "Even after Tamerlan had died, and Dzhokhar, already wounded, was the only known fugitive, the Boston authorities decided to close down the entire city.", "zh": "即使在塔梅兰已死，受伤的焦哈尔被证明是唯一已知逃犯的情况下，波士顿当局依然决定封锁整座城市。", "index": 9812}
{"en": "Public transport was halted, trains to and from the city were stopped, shops and business closed, and citizens were told to stay home.", "zh": "公共交通及城市列车停运、公司商店关闭、市民被告知要待在家里。", "index": 9813}
{"en": "Until the surviving bomber was found, Boston was reduced to a ghost town.", "zh": "在幸存的爆炸案嫌犯被发现之前，波士顿已经沦为一座鬼城。", "index": 9814}
{"en": "If two troubled young men with homemade bombs cobbled together from fertilizer and pressure cookers can have this effect on a major American city, one can imagine how tempting their example must now be to other radical losers, not to mention radical groups.", "zh": "如果两个用化肥和高压锅自制炸弹的迷惑的年轻人能对美国的主要城市产生这样的影响，那么不难想象他们的榜样对其他激进失败者、更不要说极端组织将构成多大的诱惑。", "index": 9815}
{"en": "It shows how vulnerable a modern city can be when its leaders lose their nerve.", "zh": "此次事件显示领导人丧失勇气时现代城市将变得多么脆弱。", "index": 9816}
{"en": "The authorities’ overblown reaction – and that of much of the press – was all the odder for having occurred just as the US Senate was voting down a bill that would have made it harder for known killers and mentally disturbed people to buy guns, or for private individuals to acquire weapons normally used only in warfare.", "zh": "因为发生在美国参议院刚刚否决一项加大已知杀手及精神错乱人员购买枪支及私人获取战争武器难度的法案之后，当局和多数媒体的夸张反应就显得更加怪异。", "index": 9817}
{"en": "It seems as though Americans can tolerate a society in which schoolchildren and other innocents are regularly murdered by deranged men with weapons bought on the open market, but erupt in collective hysteria when the killings are committed by people labeled as “terrorists.”", "zh": "看来美国人可以容忍中小学生和其他无辜民众被持有从公开市场所购武器的精神错乱者杀害，却在所谓“恐怖份子”策划的杀戮中集体爆发癔症。", "index": 9818}
{"en": "This may reflect what people are accustomed to.", "zh": "这也许是人们习惯成自然的反应。", "index": 9819}
{"en": "The Spanish had grown so inured to acts of violence from Basque separatists that the murder of 191 people in Madrid by Islamist extremists in 2004 was met with remarkable sang-froid. When 52 people were killed in a suicide bombing on the London Underground the following year, the British, too, reacted with relative calm, having lived through years of Irish terrorist violence in the 1970’s.", "zh": "西班牙人对巴斯克分离主义份子的暴行麻木不仁，以致于2004年伊斯兰极端份子在马德里杀害191人的暴行并未引起多大反应；而次年当自杀式炸弹袭击在伦敦地铁夺去52条生命的时候，英国人也因为经历过20世纪70年代爱尔兰恐怖主义的暴行而显得相对冷静。", "index": 9820}
{"en": "Like the Spanish, they were used to it.", "zh": "英国人和西班牙人一样已经见怪不怪。", "index": 9821}
{"en": "Americans, despite the attacks of September 11, 2001, are not.", "zh": "尽管经历过2001年9月11日的恐怖袭击，美国人却还没有对暴力司空见惯。", "index": 9822}
{"en": "Worse than that, a number of Republican senators, including such luminaries as John McCain, called for stripping Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, who is a US citizen, of his legal rights and placing him before a military tribunal as an “enemy combatant,” as though the 19-year-old college student were a soldier in a war against America.", "zh": "这还不算，就像年仅19岁的大学生兼美国公民焦哈尔·察尔纳耶夫是反美战争中的士兵一样，以约翰·麦凯恩等杰出人物为代表的几名共和党参议员呼吁剥夺他的合法权益，并将其作为“敌方战斗人员”移交军事法庭审理。", "index": 9823}
{"en": "Exaggerated fear of outside enemies has always been part of the American political landscape.", "zh": "美国政界一直存在对外敌夸大其词的恐惧。", "index": 9824}
{"en": "The “nation of immigrants” was traditionally regarded as a refuge from danger.", "zh": "美国作为“移民国家”传统上被视为避险之地。", "index": 9825}
{"en": "The evil outside world should not be able to touch the Land of the Free.", "zh": "邪恶的外部世界不应触及这片自由的土地。", "index": 9826}
{"en": "When it does – Pearl Harbor, September 2001 – all hell breaks loose.", "zh": "当珍珠港、911等外来袭击真实发生后，美国人好像掉进了活地狱。", "index": 9827}
{"en": "Another factor may be the need for a common enemy in a country whose citizens come from so many different cultures and traditions.", "zh": "另一个因素或许是民众来自多元文化和传统的国家需要同仇敌忾。", "index": 9828}
{"en": "Besieged by Communists or Islamists, people feel a sense of belonging.", "zh": "共产党或伊斯兰教徒的围攻给人带来归属感。", "index": 9829}
{"en": "Defense of the nation against dangerous outsiders – and their domestic agents, whether real or imagined – provides a powerful bond.", "zh": "保护国家免遭想象或真实的危险外来者及其国内代理人的荼毒可以产生强大的凝聚力。", "index": 9830}
{"en": "Such bonds can be useful, even necessary, in times of war.", "zh": "这样的凝聚力在战时不仅有效，而且必须。", "index": 9831}
{"en": "But the politics of fear poses a danger to the US itself.", "zh": "但恐惧政治也威胁美国自身的安全。", "index": 9832}
{"en": "The aim of political terrorist groups, such as Al Qaeda, is to provoke retaliation and maximize publicity for their cause.", "zh": "以“基地”为代表的政治恐怖组织的目的就是激起报复，最大限度地为他们的事业宣传。", "index": 9833}
{"en": "As common criminals, such groups’ members would not achieve this goal.", "zh": "如果被当作普通罪犯，恐怖组织成员的上述目标将无法实现。", "index": 9834}
{"en": "But by claiming to be soldiers at war with the world’s biggest military power, they gain sympathy, as well as recruits, among the radical losers and the disaffected.", "zh": "但自称与世界排名第一的军事强国作战能帮助他们博取同情，进而从激进失败者和不满群众当中征召人员。", "index": 9835}
{"en": "Former President George W. Bush once explained terrorism as the expression of hatred for American freedom.", "zh": "前总统乔治·W·布什曾经说过恐怖主义是表达对美国自由的仇恨。", "index": 9836}
{"en": "But when terrorism results in torture of prisoners, ever more police surveillance, and official threats to US citizens’ legal rights – or, for that matter, when a crime committed by two young immigrants causes an entire city to be shut down – Americans’ government is harming their freedom more than any terrorist could ever hope to do.", "zh": "但当恐怖主义导致对犯人施暴、警方加强监视和美国公民合法权益受到官方威胁 — — 或者就本案而言，两名年轻移民所犯的罪行导致波士顿全城陷入瘫痪时 — — 美国政府对于自由的伤害远远超乎任何恐怖份子的想象。", "index": 9837}
{"en": "American Hegemony or American Primacy?", "zh": "美国霸权还是美国主导？", "index": 9838}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – No country in modern history has possessed as much global military power as the United States.", "zh": "美国剑桥—在现代历史上，没有哪个国家拥有如同美国那样强大的全球军事实力。", "index": 9839}
{"en": "Yet some analysts now argue that the US is following in the footsteps of the United Kingdom, the last global hegemon to decline.", "zh": "但如今一些分析家认为美国正在步上一个衰落的全球霸权 — — 英国的后尘。", "index": 9840}
{"en": "This historical analogy, though increasingly popular, is misleading.", "zh": "这一历史比较尽管越来越热门，却有误导之嫌。", "index": 9841}
{"en": "Britain was never as dominant as the US is today.", "zh": "英国从未获得可与今日美国相媲美的主宰力。", "index": 9842}
{"en": "To be sure, it maintained a navy equal in size to the next two fleets combined, and its empire, on which the sun never set, ruled over a quarter of humankind.", "zh": "诚然，它拥有一支规模等于第二名和第三名之和的海军，并且“日不落帝国”统治范围覆盖了四分之一的人类。", "index": 9843}
{"en": "But there were major differences in the relative power resources of imperial Britain and contemporary America.", "zh": "但大英帝国和当代美国的相对实力来源截然不同。", "index": 9844}
{"en": "By the outbreak of World War I, Britain ranked only fourth among the great powers in terms of military personnel, fourth in terms of GDP, and third in military spending.", "zh": "一战爆发时，英国的军人数量只在列强中位居第四，GDP也位居第四，军事支出位居第三。", "index": 9845}
{"en": "The British Empire was ruled in large part through reliance on local troops.", "zh": "大英帝国在很大程度上利用当地武装实现统治。", "index": 9846}
{"en": "Of the 8.6 million British forces in WWI, nearly a third came from the overseas empire.", "zh": "在一战的860万英军中，近三分之一来自海外。", "index": 9847}
{"en": "That made it increasingly difficult for the government in London to declare war on behalf of the empire when nationalist sentiments began to intensify.", "zh": "这使得当民族主义情绪开始高涨时，伦敦政府日益难以代表整个帝国宣战。", "index": 9848}
{"en": "By World War II, protecting the empire had become more of a burden than an asset.", "zh": "到二战时，保护整个帝国成了一种负担而不是资产。", "index": 9849}
{"en": "The fact that the UK was situated so close to powers like Germany and Russia made matters even more challenging.", "zh": "英国与德国和俄国的实力已非常接近，这一事实让挑战更加紧迫。", "index": 9850}
{"en": "For all the loose talk of an “American empire,” the fact is that the US does not have colonies that it must administer, and thus has more freedom to maneuver than the UK did.", "zh": "在所有泛泛而谈的“美利坚帝国”论中，一个事实是美国并不拥有它必须管理的殖民地，因此拥有比英国更大的腾挪自由。", "index": 9851}
{"en": "And, surrounded by unthreatening countries and two oceans, it finds it far easier to protect itself.", "zh": "此外，美国周边是没有威胁的邻国和两个大洋，保护自己要容易得多。", "index": 9852}
{"en": "That brings us to another problem with the global hegemon analogy: the confusion over what “hegemony” actually means.", "zh": "这就引出了关于全球霸权比较的另一个问题：对“霸权”真实含义的混淆。", "index": 9853}
{"en": "Some observers conflate the concept with imperialism; but the US is clear evidence that a hegemon does not have to have a formal empire.", "zh": "一些观察家将霸权列为帝国主义的同义词；但美国是一个明显的例子，说明了霸权并不一定要靠正式的帝国实现。", "index": 9854}
{"en": "Others define hegemony as the ability to set the rules of the international system; but precisely how much influence over this process a hegemon must have, relative to other powers, remains unclear.", "zh": "另一些观察家将霸权定义为有能力制定国际制度规则；但霸权必须拥有相对其他列强多多少的影响力仍不明确。", "index": 9855}
{"en": "Still others consider hegemony to be synonymous with control of the most power resources.", "zh": "还有一些观察家认为霸权意味着控制最多的实力资源。", "index": 9856}
{"en": "But, by this definition, nineteenth-century Britain – which at the height of its power in 1870 ranked third (behind the US and Russia) in GDP and third (behind Russia and France) in military expenditures – could not be considered hegemonic, despite its naval dominance.", "zh": "但是，据此定义，十九世纪的英国 — — 在1870实力顶峰时期，其GDP为世界第三（次于美国和俄国 ） ， 军事支出亦为世界第三（次于俄国和法国 ） — —就不能称之为霸权，尽管它拥有海洋主宰力。", "index": 9857}
{"en": "Similarly, those who speak of American hegemony after 1945 fail to note that the Soviet Union balanced US military power for more than four decades.", "zh": "类似地，说美国在1945年后拥有霸权的人没有注意到苏联在四十多年的时间里都在制衡美国的军事实力。", "index": 9858}
{"en": "Though the US had disproportionate economic clout, its room for political and military maneuver was constrained by Soviet power.", "zh": "尽管美国拥有无与伦比的经济实力，但其政治和军事腾挪空间因为苏联的力量而大受限制。", "index": 9859}
{"en": "Some analysts describe the post-1945 period as a US-led hierarchical order with liberal characteristics, in which the US provided public goods while operating within a loose system of multilateral rules and institutions that gave weaker states a say.", "zh": "一些分析家将1945年后的时期称为美国领导的、以自由为特征的层级秩序，其中美国提供公共品并在弱国也能赢得话语权的松散的多边规则和机构体系中施展。", "index": 9860}
{"en": "They point out that it may be rational for many countries to preserve this institutional framework, even if American power resources decline.", "zh": "他们指出，对许多国家来说，维护这一制度框架是理性的，即使美国实力源在衰落。", "index": 9861}
{"en": "In this sense, the US-led international order could outlive America’s primacy in power resources, though many others argue that the emergence of new powers portends this order’s demise.", "zh": "从这个角度讲，美国领导的国际秩序能够比美国的实力源主导地位存在更长时间，尽管其他许多人指出新力量的崛起预示着这一秩序的崩溃。", "index": 9862}
{"en": "But, when it comes to the era of supposed US hegemony, there has always been a lot of fiction mixed in with the facts.", "zh": "但是，在所谓的美国霸权时期，一直有许多混杂在一起的事实和矛盾。", "index": 9863}
{"en": "It was less a global order than a group of like-minded countries, largely in the Americas and Western Europe, which comprised less than half of the world.", "zh": "它与其说是一套全球秩序，不如说是一群观念相近的国家（主要来自美洲和西欧，不到世界的一半 ） 。", "index": 9864}
{"en": "And its effects on non-members – including significant powers like China, India, Indonesia, and the Soviet bloc – were not always benign.", "zh": "其对非成员国的影响 — — 包括中国、印度、印度尼西亚和苏联阵营等主要力量 — — 并不总是积极的。", "index": 9865}
{"en": "Given this, the US position in the world could more accurately be called a “half-hegemony.”", "zh": "因此，美国在世界中的地位更应该称为“半霸权 ” （ half-hegemony ） 。", "index": 9866}
{"en": "Of course, America did maintain economic dominance after 1945: the devastation of WWII in so many countries meant that the US produced nearly half of global GDP. That position lasted until 1970, when the US share of global GDP fell to its pre-war level of one-quarter.", "zh": "当然，美国确实在1945年后维持了经济主宰力：二战让许多国家变成了焦土，这意味着美国贡献了全球GDP的近一半。", "index": 9867}
{"en": "But, from a political or military standpoint, the world was bipolar, with the Soviet Union balancing America’s power.", "zh": "但是，从政治或军事角度看，世界是双极结构，苏联制衡着美国的实力。", "index": 9868}
{"en": "Indeed, during this period, the US often could not defend its interests: the Soviet Union acquired nuclear weapons; communist takeovers occurred in China, Cuba, and half of Vietnam; the Korean War ended in a stalemate; and revolts in Hungary and Czechoslovakia were repressed.", "zh": "事实上，在此期间，美国常常无法捍卫它的利益：苏联拥有了核武器；共产党在中国、古巴和半个越南建立了政权；朝鲜战争以僵局收场；匈牙利和捷克斯洛伐克起义被镇压。", "index": 9869}
{"en": "Against this background, “primacy” seems like a more accurate description of a country’s disproportionate (and measurable) share of all three kinds of power resources: military, economic, and soft.", "zh": "在此背景下，或许“主导”才更准确地描述了一国在三大实力源上的（可测量的）超凡比重：军事、经济和软实力。", "index": 9870}
{"en": "The question now is whether the era of US primacy is coming to an end.", "zh": "现在的问题是美国主导的时代是否正在走向结束。", "index": 9871}
{"en": "Given the unpredictability of global developments, it is, of course, impossible to answer this question definitively.", "zh": "考虑到全球发展趋势的不可预测性，当然也就无法笃定地回答这个问题。", "index": 9872}
{"en": "The rise of transnational forces and non-state actors, not to mention emerging powers like China, suggests that there are big changes on the horizon.", "zh": "跨国力量和非国家行动方的崛起 — — 更不用说中国等新兴力量了 — — 意味着全球局势的重大变化。", "index": 9873}
{"en": "But there is still reason to believe that, at least in the first half of this century, the US will retain its primacy in power resources and continue to play the central role in the global balance of power.", "zh": "但仍有理由相信，至少在本世纪上半叶，美国将仍然拥有实力源的主导地位，并继续在全球实力平衡中扮演核心角色。", "index": 9874}
{"en": "In short, while the era of US primacy is not over, it is set to change in important ways.", "zh": "简言之，尽管美国主导的时代还没结束，但必定会发生重要改变。", "index": 9875}
{"en": "Whether or not these changes will bolster global security and prosperity remains to be seen.", "zh": "这些改变能否提升全球安全与繁荣还有待观察。", "index": 9876}
{"en": "What I Tell My Non-American Friends", "zh": "我告诉我美国以外的朋友", "index": 9877}
{"en": "CAMBRIDGE – I frequently travel overseas, and invariably my foreign friends ask, with varying degrees of bewilderment: What in the world is going on in your country?", "zh": "坎布里奇 — — 我时常前往海外，我外国的朋友每次都带着不同程度的困惑问：你们国家究竟发生了什么？", "index": 9878}
{"en": "Here is what I say.", "zh": "下面是我的回答。", "index": 9879}
{"en": "First, do not misinterpret the 2016 election.", "zh": "首先，不要误读2016年大选。", "index": 9880}
{"en": "Contrary to some commentary, the American political system has not been swept away by a wave of populism.", "zh": "与某些评论所声称的恰恰相反，美国政治制度并未被民粹主义浪潮所消灭掉。", "index": 9881}
{"en": "True, we have a long history of rebelling against elites.", "zh": "诚然，我们有着反抗精英的悠久历史。", "index": 9882}
{"en": "Donald Trump tapped into a tradition associated with leaders like Andrew Jackson and William Jennings Bryan in the nineteenth century and Huey Long and George Wallace in the twentieth century.", "zh": "与十九世纪的安德鲁·杰克逊和威廉·詹宁斯·布莱恩和二十世纪的休伊·朗和乔治·华莱士等领袖相关的传统被唐纳德·特朗普所利用。", "index": 9883}
{"en": "And yet Trump lost the popular vote by nearly three million.", "zh": "而且特朗普少近300万张民众选票。", "index": 9884}
{"en": "He won the election by appealing to populist resentment in three Rust Belt states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – that had previously voted Democratic.", "zh": "他通过迎合密歇根、宾夕法尼亚和威斯康星这三个铁锈州所出现的民粹主义愤怒而赢得了大选 — — 这三个州此前曾是民主党的票仓。", "index": 9885}
{"en": "If a hundred thousand votes had been cast differently in those states, Trump would have lost the Electoral College and the presidency.", "zh": "如果那些州有10万张选票当时改变了归属，那么特朗普将同时失去选举团和总统。", "index": 9886}
{"en": "That said, Trump’s victory points to a real problem of growing social and regional inequality in the United States.", "zh": "也就是说，特朗普的胜利体现出的真正问题是美国愈演愈烈的社会和地区不平等。", "index": 9887}
{"en": "J.D. Vance’s recent best-selling book Hillbilly Elegy compellingly describes the vast difference between California and Appalachia.", "zh": "万斯最新畅销书《乡村哀歌》令人信服地描绘了加利福尼亚和阿巴拉契亚之间的巨大差别。", "index": 9888}
{"en": "Research by the Princeton economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton shows that the demographic trends among lower-income whites without a college degree are worse than those for African-Americans, who historically anchored the lower extremes of inequality.", "zh": "普林斯顿大学经济学家安妮·卡斯和安格斯·迪顿的研究显示不具备大学学历的低收入白人其人口趋势比非洲裔美国人更加糟糕，而非洲裔美国人在历史上曾长期经历地位最低的不平等。", "index": 9889}
{"en": "In 1999, mortality rates among whites with no college were around 30% lower than those of African-Americans; by 2015, they were 30% higher.", "zh": "1999年，没有大学学历的白人死亡率比非洲裔美国人低30%左右；而到2015年，该数据却变成了高30 % 。", "index": 9890}
{"en": "Moreover, manufacturing employment, once a prime source of high-paying jobs for working-class whites, has fallen sharply over the last generation, to just 12% of the workforce.", "zh": "不仅如此，曾一度成为工薪阶层白人高收入主要来源的制造业岗位在过去一代人间急剧下降，目前仅占劳动力总量的12 % 。", "index": 9891}
{"en": "These previously Democratic voters were attracted by Trump’s promises to shake things up and bring back manufacturing jobs.", "zh": "这些之前的民主党选民被特朗普改变现状和重新创造制造业就业机会的承诺所吸引。", "index": 9892}
{"en": "Ironically, Trump’s efforts to repeal President Barack Obama’s health-care legislation would make their lives worse.", "zh": "颇具讽刺意味的是，特朗普废除奥巴马总统医改法案的努力将进一步恶化他们的生活状况。", "index": 9893}
{"en": "The second thing I tell my foreign friends is not to underestimate Trump’s communications skills.", "zh": "我告诉外国朋友们的第二点是不要低估特朗普的沟通技巧。", "index": 9894}
{"en": "Many are offended by his tweet storms and outrageous disregard for facts.", "zh": "很多人非常厌恶他令人愤怒地无视事实以及他的推特风暴。", "index": 9895}
{"en": "But Trump is a veteran of reality television, where he learned that the key to success is to monopolize viewers’ attention, and that the way to do that is with extreme statements, not careful regard for the truth.", "zh": "但特朗普是位电视真人秀老手，他知道垄断观众的注意力才是成功的关键，而且要靠极端言论才能做到这一点，而不是谨慎地看待真相。", "index": 9896}
{"en": "Twitter helps him to set the agenda and distract his critics.", "zh": "推特帮助他制定议程并分散批评。", "index": 9897}
{"en": "What offends commentators in the media and academia does not bother his supporters.", "zh": "冒犯媒体和学者的内容对他的支持者而言无关紧要。", "index": 9898}
{"en": "But as he turns from his permanent self-centered campaigning to trying to govern, Twitter becomes a two-edged sword that deters needed allies.", "zh": "但随着他从永远自我中心的竞选活动开始转向实际治理，推特也起到了阻止所需盟友的双刃剑的作用。", "index": 9899}
{"en": "Third, I tell my friends not to expect normal behavior.", "zh": "第三，我告诉我的朋友不要指望特朗普表现正常。", "index": 9900}
{"en": "Normally, a president who loses the popular vote moves to the political center to attract additional support.", "zh": "通常情况下，在民众投票中失利的总统会转向政治中心以吸引更多支持者。", "index": 9901}
{"en": "This is what George W. Bush did successfully in 2001.", "zh": "2001年乔治·W·布什总统就曾成功地这样做。", "index": 9902}
{"en": "Trump, by contrasts, proclaims that he won the popular vote and, acting as though he really did, appeals to his base voters.", "zh": "相比之下，特朗普宣称自己赢得了民众投票，而且就像真的赢了一样对他的基础选民发出号召。", "index": 9903}
{"en": "While Trump has made solid centrist appointments to the Departments of Defense, State, and Homeland Security, his picks for the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Health and Human Services are from the extremes of the Republican Party.", "zh": "特朗普在中规中矩地任命中间人士担任国防部长、国务卿和国土安全部负责人的同时，却任命共和党极端份子担任环保署和卫生与公共服务部部长。", "index": 9904}
{"en": "His White House staff is divided between pragmatists and ideologues, and he caters to both.", "zh": "他安排的白宫工作人员既有实用主义者也不乏空想家，而他能自如地与两者打交道。", "index": 9905}
{"en": "Fourth, no one should underestimate US institutions.", "zh": "第四，人们不应低估美国的机构。", "index": 9906}
{"en": "Sometimes my friends talk as though the sky is falling and ask if Trump is as dangerous a narcissist as Mussolini.", "zh": "有时我的朋友说得就像天要塌了一样，问特朗普是不是像墨索里尼一样危险的自恋者。", "index": 9907}
{"en": "I tell them not to panic.", "zh": "我告诉他们不要惊慌。", "index": 9908}
{"en": "The US, for all its problems, is not Italy in 1922.", "zh": "尽管美国有各种各样的问题，但绝不是1922年的意大利。", "index": 9909}
{"en": "Our national political elites are often polarized; but so were America’s founders.", "zh": "我们的国家政治精英往往两极分化；但美国的开国元勋当时也是一样。", "index": 9910}
{"en": "In designing the US Constitution, the founders’ goal was not to ensure harmonious government, but to constrain political power with a system of checks and balances that made it difficult to exercise.", "zh": "在设计美国宪法的时候，开国元勋们的目标不是确保建设和谐的政府，而是利用完整的制衡体系约束政权，增加权力的行使难度。", "index": 9911}
{"en": "The joke goes that the founders created a political system that made it impossible for King George to rule over us – or for anyone to ever do so.", "zh": "有人开玩笑说开国元勋们缔造了阻止乔治国王 — — 或任何独裁者 — — 执政的一整套政治制度。", "index": 9912}
{"en": "Inefficiency was placed in the service of liberty.", "zh": "他们宁愿以低效为代价来实现自由的目标。", "index": 9913}
{"en": "It is still early in the Trump presidency, and we cannot be sure what might happen after, say, a major terrorist attack.", "zh": "特朗普执政尚处于早期阶段，我们无法确定比如在一次重大恐怖袭击后可能发生些什么。", "index": 9914}
{"en": "So far, however, the courts, the Congress, and the states have checked and balanced the administration, as Madison intended.", "zh": "但到目前为止，法院、国会及各州政府都在按麦迪逊的意图制约和平衡政府。", "index": 9915}
{"en": "And the permanent civil servants in the executive departments add ballast.", "zh": "行政部门的常任公务员也发挥了稳定作用。", "index": 9916}
{"en": "Finally, my friends ask what all of this means for American foreign policy and the liberal international order led by the US since 1945.", "zh": "最后，我的朋友问这对美国外交政策和1945年来由美国主导的自由国际秩序意味着什么。", "index": 9917}
{"en": "Frankly, I don’t know, but I worry less about the rise of China than the rise of Trump.", "zh": "坦率地讲，我不知道，但与其说我担心中国的崛起还不如说我更担心特朗普。", "index": 9918}
{"en": "While American leaders, including Obama, have complained about free riders, the US has long taken the lead in providing key global public goods: security, a stable international reserve currency, relatively open markets, and stewardship of the Earth’s commons.", "zh": "虽然美国领导人，包括奥巴马在内，一直抱怨有人免费搭车，但美国一直在提供安全、稳定的国际储备货币、相对开放的市场和地球公共资源管理等全球关键公共服务方面发挥着领导作用。", "index": 9919}
{"en": "Despite the US-led international order’s problems, the world has prospered and poverty has been reduced under it.", "zh": "尽管以美国为主导的国际秩序存在各种问题，但在这种制度下，世界实现了繁荣，贫穷也逐步减少。", "index": 9920}
{"en": "But one cannot be sure it will continue.", "zh": "但我们无法肯定现行制度将继续下去。", "index": 9921}
{"en": "The US will need to cooperate with China, Europe, Japan, and others to manage transnational problems.", "zh": "美国需要与中国、欧洲、日本和其他国家合作来管理跨国事务。", "index": 9922}
{"en": "During the 2016 campaign, Trump was the first major party candidate in 70 years to call the American alliance system into question.", "zh": "2016年竞选期间，特朗普是七十年来首位质疑美国联盟制度的主要党派候选者。", "index": 9923}
{"en": "Since taking office in January, statements by Trump and his appointees suggest that it is likely to persist.", "zh": "自1月上台以来，特朗普及其任命人员的言论表明这种质疑很可能不会消除。", "index": 9924}
{"en": "American hard and soft power, after all, stems largely from the fact that the US has 60 allies (while China has only a few).", "zh": "归根结底，美国的硬实力和软实力大多来自美国的六十个盟友（而中国只有少数几个 ） 。", "index": 9925}
{"en": "But the stability of the multilateral institutions that help manage the world economy and global commons is more uncertain.", "zh": "但协助管理世界经济和全球民众的多边机构能否保持稳定不确定性更高。", "index": 9926}
{"en": "Trump’s budget director speaks of a hard-power budget, with funds cut from the State Department and the United Nations system.", "zh": "特朗普的预算总监谈到硬实力预算，拨给国务院和联合国系统的资金都有所减少。", "index": 9927}
{"en": "Other officials advocate replacing multilateral trade deals with “fair and balanced” bilateral arrangements.", "zh": "其他官员则宣扬用“公平和平衡的”双边安排取代多边贸易协定。", "index": 9928}
{"en": "And Trump is repudiating Obama’s efforts to address climate change.", "zh": "而且特朗普拒绝承认奥巴马应对气候变化的工作。", "index": 9929}
{"en": "I tell my friends I wish I could reassure them on these issues.", "zh": "我告诉我的朋友我希望能在这些问题上给他们保证。", "index": 9930}
{"en": "But I cannot.", "zh": "但我做不到。", "index": 9931}
{"en": "Reclaiming American Internationalism", "zh": "重拾美国国际主义", "index": 9932}
{"en": "DENVER – To watch the debate play out in America’s news media, it would seem that the opposite of “America First” is American interventionism: a chronic penchant for leaping, to no apparent end, into wars of choice and demonstrating America’s unrivaled military power.", "zh": "发自丹佛 — — 如果你关注美国新闻媒体的争论，就会发现“美国优先”的对立面似乎是美国的干预主义：经常出其不意地跳入战争选项并炫耀美国无与伦比的军事实力。", "index": 9933}
{"en": "But interventionism is not the same thing as internationalism.", "zh": "但干预主义与国际主义不同。", "index": 9934}
{"en": "Conflating the two collapses the distinction between quick and decisive use of force and thoughtful engagement with the world and its problems.", "zh": "如果将两者混为一谈，就无法将快速断然使用武力与深思熟虑地参与世界及其问题区分开来。", "index": 9935}
{"en": "In America’s “get ’er done” transactional Weltanschauung, international disputes tend to be viewed as military challenges that are merely masquerading as political issues.", "zh": "在美国那种“把事情摆平”的事务性世界观中，国际争端往往被视为伪装成政治事务的军事挑战。", "index": 9936}
{"en": "In fact, they are usually the opposite, which is why the world’s most complex conflicts are rarely resolved by intervention.", "zh": "事实上情况通常是相反的，这就是为什么世界上最复杂的冲突很少能通过干预来解决的原因。", "index": 9937}
{"en": "Geopolitical conflicts have long, sordid histories, and violence is more often a symptom of their intractability than an inherent trait.", "zh": "地缘政治冲突都有着悠久而丑恶的历史，而暴力往往并非其固有特征，而是证明其难以处理的症状。", "index": 9938}
{"en": "They often have something to do with identity, and with claims of collective ownership of the land beneath the feet of a particular “nation.”", "zh": "它们往往与身份定义有关，并且声称对特定“国家/民族”脚下的土地拥有集体所有权。", "index": 9939}
{"en": "The basis of political membership is more often ethnic than civil, which is contrary to Americans’ understanding of nationhood.", "zh": "构建政治成员资格的基础往往是种族而非公民身份，而这与美国人对国家的理解相悖。", "index": 9940}
{"en": "Moreover, contemporary problems can be the products of flawed arrangements that were made decades or even centuries ago.", "zh": "与此同时，某些当代问题可能是几十年甚至几百年前那些缺陷性安排的产物。", "index": 9941}
{"en": "Two examples that immediately come to mind are the 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement between Britain and France, which carved up the Middle East, and the 1919 Treaty of Versailles, which established national borders in the Balkans.", "zh": "可以信手拈来的两个例子是1916年英法两国瓜分中东的《赛克斯-皮科协定 》 ， 以及1919年为巴尔干地区划分了国界的《凡尔赛条约 》 。", "index": 9942}
{"en": "In both cases, creating new states may have seemed like a straightforward solution, but doing so turned out to be a prescription for more war.", "zh": "在这两种情况下，建立一些新国家看似是个简单明了的解决方案，但真这样做只会引发更多战争。", "index": 9943}
{"en": "For the United States, international conflicts are often an occasion to demonstrate “toughness” and “resolve.”", "zh": "对美国来说，国际冲突往往是其展现“硬派”和“决心”的机会。", "index": 9944}
{"en": "The US airstrikes in Bosnia were meant to lend momentum to a political process that already had the support of the European Union and Russia.", "zh": "美国对波斯尼亚的空袭是为了推动一项已经得到欧盟和俄罗斯支持的政治进程。", "index": 9945}
{"en": "The air campaign was a last resort, an effort to punish those who did not support the peace process.", "zh": "空袭是最后的手段，是为了惩罚那些不支持和平进程的人。", "index": 9946}
{"en": "For many American pundits and politicians, then, the lesson of Bosnia was merely that the bad guys should have been bombed sooner.", "zh": "因此对许多美国权威人士和政治家来说，从波斯尼亚得到的经验就仅仅是应该早点轰炸坏人。", "index": 9947}
{"en": "Few took the opportunity to study the region’s complex history so that judicious inter-entity boundaries could be drawn up.", "zh": "很少人借此机会研究该地区的复杂历史以便在各个实体间划分出审慎明智的界限。", "index": 9948}
{"en": "If they had, the final arrangement might have done more to preserve external borders and nurture a constitutional structure that would allow the new state to be integrated into the European map.", "zh": "如果他们能做到这一点的话，最终安排可能会更加专注于保护外部边界并培育出一种宪政架构，使新国家得以融入欧洲地图。", "index": 9949}
{"en": "Kosovo, too, supplied more historical complexity than many were willing to grapple with.", "zh": "科索沃也是如此，因为该地的历史要比许多人愿意探究的更为复杂。", "index": 9950}
{"en": "On-the-ground diplomacy to achieve sovereign autonomy for Kosovo while respecting Serbs’ emotional connection to it was derided.", "zh": "力图在实现科索沃主权自治的同时尊重塞族与该地情感联系的接地气外交策略总是受到嘲笑。", "index": 9951}
{"en": "The implication was that military means should be the first – rather than the last – option for securing Kosovo’s independence.", "zh": "这意味着军事手段成为了确保科索沃独立的首要 — — 而不是最后一个 — — 选择。", "index": 9952}
{"en": "Never mind that many European countries objected to the creation of an independent state, and had called for multilateral diplomacy to be attempted before any discussion of air strikes.", "zh": "更别提许多欧洲国家反对建立一个独立国家，并呼吁在讨论实施任何空袭之前尝试进行多边外交。", "index": 9953}
{"en": "Interventionism, with internationalism as an afterthought, continued after the turn of the century, but on a much bigger stage.", "zh": "在世纪之交之后，先干涉主义后国际主义的做法继续存在，而且站在更广大的舞台上。", "index": 9954}
{"en": "After the attacks of September 11, 2001, the US led an invasion and subsequent occupation of Afghanistan to root out al-Qaeda.", "zh": "在2001年9月11日袭击事件发生后，美国领军了入侵并随后占领阿富汗以铲除基地组织。", "index": 9955}
{"en": "But after 17 years with troops on the ground in that country, Americans have lost patience, with many embracing US President Donald Trump’s “America First” isolationism.", "zh": "但是在驻军17年后美国人失去了耐心，许多人接受了美国总统特朗普的“美国优先”孤立主义思维。", "index": 9956}
{"en": "In Iraq, where the connection to terrorism was more dubious, the US mounted a major military effort with goals that were perplexing and shifting, insofar as they were ever clearly articulated at all.", "zh": "在与恐怖主义联系更为微弱的伊拉克，美国花费重大的军事努力去实现那些令人困惑且飘摇不定的目标，似乎它们根本就没有被明确表达过。", "index": 9957}
{"en": "American interventionism has often been accompanied by criticism of friends and allies, who are depicted as weak and vacillating in the face of global challenges such as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea or China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea.", "zh": "美国的干涉主义往往伴随着对朋友和盟友的批评，指责它们在面对诸如俄罗斯总统普京吞并克里米亚或中国在南中国海日益横行等全球性挑战时表现弱势和摇摆不定。", "index": 9958}
{"en": "When things went wrong in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US blamed those countries’ political leaders, denouncing them as corrupt and deserving of regime change.", "zh": "当阿富汗和伊拉克出现问题时美国就会抨击这些国家的政治领导人，谴责他们腐败并活该下台。", "index": 9959}
{"en": "The Europeans, too, were denounced, not just for fecklessness in the face of evil, but for living fat and happy lives without shouldering their proper burden.", "zh": "欧洲人也受到谴责，不仅仅是因为面对恶行时的无能，还因为光顾享受生活而不去承担适当的责任。", "index": 9960}
{"en": "With these narratives deeply etched into American public consciousness, it is no wonder that Trump’s dystopian vision has prevailed over internationalism, which has become a byword for the endless use of force and condescension toward allies.", "zh": "鉴于这些叙事已经深深地铭刻在美国公众的意识当中，也难怪特朗普的反乌托邦视野能压倒国际主义，因为后者已经成为无休止地使用武力并对盟友俯首帖耳的代名词。", "index": 9961}
{"en": "American internationalism will be back at some point.", "zh": "美国的国际主义将会在某个时刻回归。", "index": 9962}
{"en": "But those who claim to support it could hasten its revival by acting in accordance with its original meaning.", "zh": "但那些声称支持它的人可以通过按照其原始含义行事来加速其复兴。", "index": 9963}
{"en": "Traditional internationalists show respect for the opinions of others, and a willingness to accept – and even champion – multilateral structures.", "zh": "传统的国际主义者会表现出对他人意见的尊重，并表现出接受 — — 甚至支持 — — 多边架构的意愿。", "index": 9964}
{"en": "What internationalism needs now is a renewed American commitment to cooperation, even when other governments require more time to secure a mandate for action from their respective constituencies.", "zh": "当前国际主义需要的是美国承诺重新参与合作，即使当其他政府需要更多时间来获取来自各自体制的行动授权。", "index": 9965}
{"en": "At the end of the day, US international leadership must rest on American values, and on a broad perception of adherence to the unalienable principles underlying liberal democracy.", "zh": "毕竟美国的国际领导必须根植于美国的价值观并广泛遵守自由民主制度背后的一系列不可剥夺原则。", "index": 9966}
{"en": "In other words, America must lead by example.", "zh": "换句话说，美国必须以身作则。", "index": 9967}
{"en": "Its failure to do so in recent times – not least on the refugee issue – has undermined the influence on which its power ultimately rests.", "zh": "而其近期的失能 — — 尤其是在难民问题上 — — 已经破坏了其权力最终所赖以构筑的影响力。", "index": 9968}
{"en": "Renewing American Leadership", "zh": "重建美国领导", "index": 9969}
{"en": "MADRID – December always provides an opportunity to pause and reflect on what was and what will be.", "zh": "马德里—12月永远是停下来思考过去怎样、未来又会怎样的机会。", "index": 9970}
{"en": "This year, one of the conclusions that such reflection yields is that the United States remains firmly at the center of the liberal world order.", "zh": "今年，这样的思考所产生的一个结论是美国仍然是自由世界秩序的核心，这一地位十分稳固。", "index": 9971}
{"en": "Another is that the US needs to do more to lead in the way that its international standing demands.", "zh": "另一个结论是美国需要做更多的事才能满足其国际地位所要求的领导责任。", "index": 9972}
{"en": "Doubts about America’s continued global leadership have been proliferating for years.", "zh": "多年来，关于美国是否能够保持全球领导力的质疑此起彼伏。", "index": 9973}
{"en": "But, though the much-discussed multi-polar world order may well be in the cards, the reality is that, for now, efforts to address global challenges – from climate change to conflict in the Middle East – demand US engagement.", "zh": "但是，尽管广受关注的多极世界秩序也许已经注定，但现实是就目前而言，解决全球挑战 — — 从气候变化到中东冲突 — — 的措施都需要美国的参与。", "index": 9974}
{"en": "Unfortunately, the narrative of American decline has gained so much traction in recent years that even US officials seem to have started to believe it, pursuing weak and piecemeal policies (or, in some cases, doing nothing at all).", "zh": "不幸的是，美国衰落的说法在近几年中获得了巨大的市场，就连美国官员也似乎已经开始相信它，推行弱势的零星政策（在有些问题上甚至无所作为 ） 。", "index": 9975}
{"en": "President Barack Obama’s restrained foreign-policy approach appears to be fueling, not reducing, global instability.", "zh": "总统奥巴马的克制外交方针助长而不是遏制了全球动荡。", "index": 9976}
{"en": "The reasons for this lack of strong action are disputed.", "zh": "不再采取强势行动的原因饱受争议。", "index": 9977}
{"en": "Some blame Obama’s own fears about repeating his predecessors’ mistakes; others blame a hostile Congress for tying his hands.", "zh": "一些人指责奥巴马害怕重蹈前任覆辙；也有人指责敌意国会的掣肘。", "index": 9978}
{"en": "In fact, both factors may be at work.", "zh": "事实上，也许两个因素都在起作用。", "index": 9979}
{"en": "It may well be true that Obama would rather exercise caution – even when bold action is called for – than act impulsively and potentially cause more damage.", "zh": "奥巴马宁愿谨慎行事 — — 哪怕是在人们呼吁采取果断行动时 — — 而不愿冲动以免造成更多伤害。", "index": 9980}
{"en": "But the negative impact of an obstructionist, highly partisan US Congress should not be underestimated.", "zh": "但以制造障碍为己任的高度党派对立的美国国会所起到的消极作用也不能小觑。", "index": 9981}
{"en": "For example, by blocking reforms to International Monetary Fund governance that were agreed in 2010, Congress has damaged, perhaps irreparably, the legitimacy and relevance of the Bretton Woods institutions.", "zh": "比如，国会阻挠在2010年就形成一致的国际货币基金组织（IMF）治理改革，这可能对布雷顿森林机构的合法性和重要性造成了不可挽回的伤害。", "index": 9982}
{"en": "Likewise, by refusing to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US Congress has undermined America’s credibility as it attempts to reaffirm international law in the South China Sea, where China is acting with increasing audacity.", "zh": "类似地，美国国会拒绝批准联合国海洋法公约，这损害了美国的信誉，使其在中国日益蛮横的南海问题上难以主张国际法。", "index": 9983}
{"en": "And, by opposing the inclusion of legally binding climate commitments, it weakened the global climate agreement that was reached this month in Paris, leaving compliance and implementation uncertain.", "zh": "此外，美国国会还反对纳入有法律约束的气候承诺，从而削弱了本月在巴黎所达成的全球气候协定，留下了遵守和实施方面的不确定性。", "index": 9984}
{"en": "Stalemate has become the name of the game in US politics in recent years.", "zh": "近几年来，僵局已成为美国政治博弈的代名词。", "index": 9985}
{"en": "That is why next year’s presidential election is so crucial.", "zh": "正因如此，明年的总统选举至关重要。", "index": 9986}
{"en": "It offers an opportunity for a fresh start, a new approach that produces the type of policy actions that the world needs.", "zh": "这次选举提供了一个采取新方针，带来世界所需要的政策行动的全新开始的机会。", "index": 9987}
{"en": "The key is engagement – among branches of the US government, between the US government and the public, and between the US and the rest of the world.", "zh": "关键在于参与（engagement ） — —美国政府各部门的参与，美国政府和公众之间的参与，以及美国和世界其他国家之间的参与。", "index": 9988}
{"en": "For starters, to avoid the kind of obstructionism that prevailed in the last eight years, the next president must engage Congress directly and actively.", "zh": "首先，为了避免过去八年中所出现的阻挠一切的情况，下一位美国总统必须直接、积极地参与国会。", "index": 9989}
{"en": "And, in fact, two of the Obama administration’s recent wins – the passage of so-called trade promotion authority (fast-track negotiating authority to conclude the Trans-Pacific Partnership) and the reauthorization of the small but vital Export-Import Bank – were the result of dedicated outreach, education, and, yes, cajoling of lawmakers.", "zh": "而事实上，奥巴马政府的两次最近的胜利 — — 通过所谓的贸易促进授权（快车道谈判授权以完成跨太平洋合作伙伴关系）和对规模较小但至关重要的进出口银行的重新授权 — — 便是不遗余力的广泛接触、教育以及，是的，诱导立法者的结果。", "index": 9990}
{"en": "The Iran nuclear agreement, one of Obama’s hallmark achievements, involved similar efforts to engage Congress, from protracted trips to Capitol Hill by Obama administration officials to a creative approach that allowed legislators to display their displeasure for the deal, without blocking its progress.", "zh": "伊朗核协议是奥巴马的标志性成就之一，其中也包括了类似的参与国会的努力，奥巴马政府官员坚持不懈地拜访国会山，并提出了一套创造性的方针，允许立法者表达他们对协议的不满而不会阻挠协议进展。", "index": 9991}
{"en": "Even in America’s highly divisive political atmosphere, it seems, where there is a will, there is a way.", "zh": "看起来，即使在高度分化的美国政治气候下，也是有志者事竟成。", "index": 9992}
{"en": "America’s next president must also improve engagement with citizens, whose widespread disaffection constrains – or allows – US leaders to pursue a weak foreign policy.", "zh": "下一任美国总统还必须改善与公民之间的参与，美国公民的普遍不满制约 — — 或者让 — — 美国领导人采取了弱势外交。", "index": 9993}
{"en": "Like many Europeans today, most Americans do not seem to understand – or care to understand – that the crumbling of the liberal world order would have dire consequences for all of them.", "zh": "和当今的许多欧洲人一样，大部分美国人似乎不理解 — — 也不屑理解 — — 自由世界秩序的崩溃会给他们所有人都带来可怕后果。", "index": 9994}
{"en": "It was not always this way.", "zh": "并不总是如此。", "index": 9995}
{"en": "Immediately after World War II, the memory of war, together with the enduring threat posed by the Soviet Union, made plain the importance of building and maintaining a liberal world order.", "zh": "第二次世界大战刚刚结束时，战争的记忆加上苏联所带来的持续威胁，使得人人都能理解构建和维持自由世界秩序的重要性。", "index": 9996}
{"en": "Today, though the need for such an order is just as great, the argument is not nearly as comprehensible or emotionally powerful.", "zh": "如今，尽管对这一秩序的需求与当时同样巨大，但这一论点已不再那么完整或者具有那么强大的情感力量。", "index": 9997}
{"en": "Discussion of rules and institutions comes across as bloodless.", "zh": "对规则和制度的讨论给人留下不会流血的引向。", "index": 9998}
{"en": "It is up to political leaders – and especially the president – to figure out how to make a compelling case about what is at stake.", "zh": "政治领导人 — — 尤其是总统 — — 的责任就是找到如何将让最重要的事情显得刻不容缓。", "index": 9999}