""" ARF 3.3.9 Engine - PhD Level Implementation Realistic scoring, psychological framing, enterprise simulation """ import random import time from datetime import datetime from typing import Dict, List, Tuple import numpy as np class BayesianRiskModel: """Bayesian risk assessment with priors and confidence intervals""" def __init__(self): # Prior distributions for different action types self.priors = { "destructive": {"alpha": 2, "beta": 8}, # 20% base risk "modification": {"alpha": 1, "beta": 9}, # 10% base risk "readonly": {"alpha": 1, "beta": 99}, # 1% base risk "deployment": {"alpha": 3, "beta": 7}, # 30% base risk } # Historical patterns self.history = { "DROP DATABASE": {"success": 5, "failure": 95}, "DELETE FROM": {"success": 10, "failure": 90}, "GRANT": {"success": 30, "failure": 70}, "UPDATE": {"success": 40, "failure": 60}, "DEPLOY": {"success": 60, "failure": 40}, } def assess(self, action: str, context: Dict, historical_patterns: Dict = None) -> Dict: """Bayesian risk assessment""" # Determine action type action_type = self._classify_action(action) # Get prior prior = self.priors.get(action_type, self.priors["modification"]) # Get likelihood from historical data action_key = self._extract_action_key(action) historical = historical_patterns.get(action_key, {"success": 50, "failure": 50}) # Calculate posterior (simplified) alpha_posterior = prior["alpha"] + historical["failure"] beta_posterior = prior["beta"] + historical["success"] # Expected risk score risk_score = alpha_posterior / (alpha_posterior + beta_posterior) # Add context-based adjustments context_adjustment = self._assess_context(context) risk_score *= context_adjustment # Add realistic variance (never 0.0 or 1.0) risk_score = max(0.25, min(0.95, risk_score + random.uniform(-0.1, 0.1))) # Confidence interval n = alpha_posterior + beta_posterior confidence = min(0.99, 0.8 + (n / (n + 100)) * 0.19) return { "score": risk_score, "confidence": confidence, "action_type": action_type, "risk_factors": self._extract_risk_factors(action, context) } def _classify_action(self, action: str) -> str: """Classify action type""" action_lower = action.lower() if any(word in action_lower for word in ["drop", "delete", "truncate", "remove"]): return "destructive" elif any(word in action_lower for word in ["update", "alter", "modify", "change"]): return "modification" elif any(word in action_lower for word in ["deploy", "execute", "run", "train"]): return "deployment" elif any(word in action_lower for word in ["grant", "revoke", "permission"]): return "modification" else: return "readonly" def _extract_action_key(self, action: str) -> str: """Extract key action identifier""" words = action.split() if len(words) > 0: return words[0].upper() return "UNKNOWN" def _assess_context(self, context: Dict) -> float: """Assess context risk multiplier""" multiplier = 1.0 context_str = str(context).lower() # Time-based risk if "2am" in context_str or "night" in context_str: multiplier *= 1.3 # User-based risk if "junior" in context_str or "intern" in context_str: multiplier *= 1.4 elif "senior" in context_str or "lead" in context_str: multiplier *= 0.8 # Environment-based risk if "production" in context_str or "prod" in context_str: multiplier *= 1.5 elif "staging" in context_str: multiplier *= 1.2 elif "development" in context_str: multiplier *= 0.7 # Backup status if "backup" in context_str and ("old" in context_str or "no" in context_str): multiplier *= 1.4 elif "backup" in context_str and ("fresh" in context_str or "recent" in context_str): multiplier *= 0.9 return multiplier def _extract_risk_factors(self, action: str, context: Dict) -> List[str]: """Extract specific risk factors""" factors = [] action_lower = action.lower() context_str = str(context).lower() if "drop" in action_lower and "database" in action_lower: factors.append("Irreversible data destruction") factors.append("Potential service outage") if "delete" in action_lower: factors.append("Data loss risk") if "where" not in action_lower: factors.append("No WHERE clause (mass deletion)") if "production" in context_str: factors.append("Production environment") if "junior" in context_str: factors.append("Junior operator") if "2am" in context_str: factors.append("Off-hours operation") return factors[:3] # Return top 3 factors class PolicyEngine: """Hierarchical policy evaluation engine""" def __init__(self): self.policies = { "destructive": { "risk_threshold": 0.3, "required_approvals": 2, "backup_required": True }, "modification": { "risk_threshold": 0.5, "required_approvals": 1, "backup_required": False }, "deployment": { "risk_threshold": 0.4, "required_approvals": 1, "tests_required": True }, "readonly": { "risk_threshold": 0.8, "required_approvals": 0, "backup_required": False } } def evaluate(self, action: str, risk_profile: Dict, confidence_threshold: float = 0.7) -> Dict: """Evaluate action against policies""" action_type = risk_profile.get("action_type", "modification") risk_score = risk_profile.get("score", 0.5) policy = self.policies.get(action_type, self.policies["modification"]) # Policy compliance check if risk_score > policy["risk_threshold"]: compliance = "HIGH_RISK" recommendation = f"Requires {policy['required_approvals']} approval(s)" if policy.get("backup_required", False): recommendation += " and verified backup" else: compliance = "WITHIN_POLICY" recommendation = "Within policy limits" # Confidence check confidence = risk_profile.get("confidence", 0.5) if confidence < confidence_threshold: compliance = "LOW_CONFIDENCE" recommendation = "Low confidence score - manual review recommended" return { "compliance": compliance, "recommendation": recommendation, "policy_type": action_type, "risk_threshold": policy["risk_threshold"], "actual_risk": risk_score } class LicenseManager: """Psychology-enhanced license manager""" def __init__(self): self.license_patterns = { "trial": r"ARF-TRIAL-[A-Z0-9]{8}", "starter": r"ARF-STARTER-[A-Z0-9]{8}", "professional": r"ARF-PRO-[A-Z0-9]{8}", "enterprise": r"ARF-ENTERPRISE-[A-Z0-9]{8}" } self.tier_features = { "oss": { "name": "OSS Edition", "color": "#1E88E5", "enforcement": "advisory", "gates": 0, "support": "community" }, "trial": { "name": "Trial Edition", "color": "#FFB300", "enforcement": "mechanical", "gates": 3, "support": "email", "days_remaining": 14 }, "starter": { "name": "Starter Edition", "color": "#FF9800", "enforcement": "mechanical", "gates": 3, "support": "business_hours", "price": "$2,000/mo" }, "professional": { "name": "Professional Edition", "color": "#FF6F00", "enforcement": "mechanical", "gates": 5, "support": "24/7", "price": "$5,000/mo" }, "enterprise": { "name": "Enterprise Edition", "color": "#D84315", "enforcement": "mechanical", "gates": 7, "support": "dedicated", "price": "$15,000/mo" } } def validate(self, license_key: str = None, action_risk: float = 0.5) -> Dict: """Validate license and return tier info""" if not license_key: return self.tier_features["oss"] # Check license patterns license_upper = license_key.upper() if "ARF-TRIAL" in license_upper: tier = "trial" elif "ARF-STARTER" in license_upper: tier = "starter" elif "ARF-PRO" in license_upper: tier = "professional" elif "ARF-ENTERPRISE" in license_upper: tier = "enterprise" else: tier = "oss" # Get tier features features = self.tier_features.get(tier, self.tier_features["oss"]).copy() # Add psychological elements if tier == "trial": features["scarcity"] = f"⏳ {features.get('days_remaining', 14)} days remaining" features["social_proof"] = "Join 1,000+ developers using ARF" return features class MechanicalGateEvaluator: """Mechanical gate evaluation engine""" def __init__(self): self.gates = { "risk_assessment": {"weight": 0.3, "required": True}, "policy_compliance": {"weight": 0.3, "required": True}, "resource_check": {"weight": 0.2, "required": False}, "approval_workflow": {"weight": 0.1, "required": False}, "audit_trail": {"weight": 0.1, "required": False} } def evaluate(self, risk_profile: Dict, policy_result: Dict, license_info: Dict) -> Dict: """Evaluate mechanical gates""" gate_results = [] total_score = 0 max_score = 0 # Gate 1: Risk Assessment risk_gate = self._evaluate_risk_gate(risk_profile) gate_results.append(risk_gate) total_score += risk_gate["score"] * self.gates["risk_assessment"]["weight"] max_score += self.gates["risk_assessment"]["weight"] # Gate 2: Policy Compliance policy_gate = self._evaluate_policy_gate(policy_result) gate_results.append(policy_gate) total_score += policy_gate["score"] * self.gates["policy_compliance"]["weight"] max_score += self.gates["policy_compliance"]["weight"] # Additional gates based on license tier license_tier = license_info.get("name", "OSS Edition").lower() if "trial" in license_tier or "starter" in license_tier: # Gate 3: Resource Check resource_gate = self._evaluate_resource_gate(risk_profile) gate_results.append(resource_gate) total_score += resource_gate["score"] * self.gates["resource_check"]["weight"] max_score += self.gates["resource_check"]["weight"] if "professional" in license_tier or "enterprise" in license_tier: # Gate 4: Approval Workflow approval_gate = self._evaluate_approval_gate(policy_result) gate_results.append(approval_gate) total_score += approval_gate["score"] * self.gates["approval_workflow"]["weight"] max_score += self.gates["approval_workflow"]["weight"] # Gate 5: Audit Trail audit_gate = self._evaluate_audit_gate() gate_results.append(audit_gate) total_score += audit_gate["score"] * self.gates["audit_trail"]["weight"] max_score += self.gates["audit_trail"]["weight"] # Calculate overall score overall_score = total_score / max_score if max_score > 0 else 0 # Decision authority decision = self._calculate_decision_authority(gate_results, license_tier, overall_score) return { "gate_results": gate_results, "overall_score": overall_score, "decision": decision, "gates_passed": len([g for g in gate_results if g["passed"]]), "total_gates": len(gate_results) } def _evaluate_risk_gate(self, risk_profile: Dict) -> Dict: """Evaluate risk assessment gate""" risk_score = risk_profile.get("score", 0.5) confidence = risk_profile.get("confidence", 0.5) passed = risk_score < 0.7 and confidence > 0.6 score = (0.7 - min(risk_score, 0.7)) / 0.7 * 0.5 + (confidence - 0.6) / 0.4 * 0.5 return { "name": "Risk Assessment", "passed": passed, "score": max(0, min(1, score)), "details": f"Risk: {risk_score:.1%}, Confidence: {confidence:.1%}" } def _evaluate_policy_gate(self, policy_result: Dict) -> Dict: """Evaluate policy compliance gate""" compliance = policy_result.get("compliance", "HIGH_RISK") risk_threshold = policy_result.get("risk_threshold", 0.5) actual_risk = policy_result.get("actual_risk", 0.5) passed = compliance != "HIGH_RISK" score = 1.0 if passed else (risk_threshold / actual_risk if actual_risk > 0 else 0) return { "name": "Policy Compliance", "passed": passed, "score": max(0, min(1, score)), "details": f"Compliance: {compliance}" } def _evaluate_resource_gate(self, risk_profile: Dict) -> Dict: """Evaluate resource check gate""" # Simulate resource availability check passed = random.random() > 0.3 # 70% chance of passing score = 0.8 if passed else 0.3 return { "name": "Resource Check", "passed": passed, "score": score, "details": "Resources available" if passed else "Resource constraints detected" } def _evaluate_approval_gate(self, policy_result: Dict) -> Dict: """Evaluate approval workflow gate""" # Simulate approval workflow passed = random.random() > 0.2 # 80% chance of passing score = 0.9 if passed else 0.2 return { "name": "Approval Workflow", "passed": passed, "score": score, "details": "Approvals verified" if passed else "Pending approvals" } def _evaluate_audit_gate(self) -> Dict: """Evaluate audit trail gate""" # Always passes for demo return { "name": "Audit Trail", "passed": True, "score": 1.0, "details": "Audit trail generated" } def _calculate_decision_authority(self, gate_results: List[Dict], license_tier: str, overall_score: float) -> str: """Calculate decision authority""" required_gates = [g for g in gate_results if self.gates.get(g["name"].lower().replace(" ", "_"), {}).get("required", False)] passed_required = all(g["passed"] for g in required_gates) if not passed_required: return "BLOCKED" # Decision thresholds based on license tier thresholds = { "oss": 1.0, # Never autonomous "trial": 0.9, "starter": 0.85, "professional": 0.8, "enterprise": 0.75 } tier_key = "oss" for key in ["trial", "starter", "professional", "enterprise"]: if key in license_tier: tier_key = key break threshold = thresholds.get(tier_key, 1.0) if overall_score >= threshold: return "AUTONOMOUS" else: return "HUMAN_APPROVAL" class ARFEngine: """Enterprise-grade reliability engine with psychological optimization""" def __init__(self): self.risk_model = BayesianRiskModel() self.policy_engine = PolicyEngine() self.license_manager = LicenseManager() self.gate_evaluator = MechanicalGateEvaluator() self.stats = { "actions_tested": 0, "risks_prevented": 0, "time_saved_minutes": 0, "trial_requests": 0, "start_time": time.time() } self.history = [] def assess_action(self, action: str, context: Dict, license_key: str = None) -> Dict: """Comprehensive action assessment with psychological framing""" start_time = time.time() # 1. Multi-dimensional risk assessment risk_profile = self.risk_model.assess( action=action, context=context, historical_patterns=self.risk_model.history ) # 2. Policy evaluation with confidence intervals policy_result = self.policy_engine.evaluate( action=action, risk_profile=risk_profile, confidence_threshold=0.7 ) # 3. License validation with tier-specific gates license_info = self.license_manager.validate( license_key, action_risk=risk_profile["score"] ) # 4. Mechanical gate evaluation gate_results = self.gate_evaluator.evaluate( risk_profile=risk_profile, policy_result=policy_result, license_info=license_info ) # 5. Generate recommendation recommendation = self._generate_recommendation( risk_profile, policy_result, license_info, gate_results ) # 6. Calculate processing time processing_time = (time.time() - start_time) * 1000 # ms # Update statistics if risk_profile["score"] > 0.5: self.stats["risks_prevented"] += 1 # Store in history self.history.append({ "action": action, "risk_score": risk_profile["score"], "timestamp": datetime.now().isoformat(), "license_tier": license_info.get("name", "OSS") }) # Keep only last 100 entries if len(self.history) > 100: self.history = self.history[-100:] return { "risk_score": risk_profile["score"], "risk_factors": risk_profile["risk_factors"], "confidence": risk_profile["confidence"], "recommendation": recommendation, "policy_compliance": policy_result["compliance"], "license_tier": license_info["name"], "gate_decision": gate_results["decision"], "gates_passed": gate_results["gates_passed"], "total_gates": gate_results["total_gates"], "processing_time_ms": processing_time, "stats": self.get_stats() } def _generate_recommendation(self, risk_profile: Dict, policy_result: Dict, license_info: Dict, gate_results: Dict) -> str: """Generate psychological recommendation""" risk_score = risk_profile["score"] decision = gate_results["decision"] tier = license_info["name"] if tier == "OSS Edition": if risk_score > 0.7: return "🚨 HIGH RISK: This action would be BLOCKED by mechanical gates. Consider Enterprise for protection." elif risk_score > 0.4: return "⚠️ MODERATE RISK: Requires manual review. Mechanical gates would automate this check." else: return "✅ LOW RISK: Action appears safe. Mechanical gates provide additional verification." else: if decision == "BLOCKED": return "❌ BLOCKED: Action prevented by mechanical gates. Risk factors: " + ", ".join(risk_profile["risk_factors"][:2]) elif decision == "HUMAN_APPROVAL": return "🔄 REQUIRES APPROVAL: Action meets risk threshold. Routing to human approver." else: # AUTONOMOUS return "✅ APPROVED: Action passes all mechanical gates and is proceeding autonomously." def update_stats(self, stat_type: str, value: int = 1): """Update statistics""" if stat_type in self.stats: self.stats[stat_type] += value # Update time saved (15 minutes per action) if stat_type == "actions_tested": self.stats["time_saved_minutes"] += 15 def get_stats(self) -> Dict: """Get current statistics""" elapsed_hours = (time.time() - self.stats["start_time"]) / 3600 actions_per_hour = self.stats["actions_tested"] / max(elapsed_hours, 0.1) return { **self.stats, "actions_per_hour": round(actions_per_hour, 1), "reliability_score": min(99.9, 95 + (self.stats["risks_prevented"] / max(self.stats["actions_tested"], 1)) * 5), "history_size": len(self.history) }