app.py

from __future__ import annotations

import gradio as gr
import plotly.graph_objects as go
from causal import estimate_effects, generate_scm


def simulate(
    samples: int, confounding: float, seed: int
) -> tuple[go.Figure, dict]:
    sample = generate_scm(
        samples=int(samples),
        seed=int(seed),
        confounding=float(confounding),
    )
    results = estimate_effects(
        sample,
        propensity_correct=True,
        outcome_correct=True,
        folds=5,
        seed=int(seed) + 1,
    )
    labels = ["Ground truth", "Naive association", "IPW", "Outcome model", "AIPW"]
    values = [
        results["truth"],
        results["naive"],
        results["ipw"],
        results["outcome_regression"],
        results["aipw"],
    ]
    colors = ["#22c55e", "#ef4444", "#38bdf8", "#a78bfa", "#f59e0b"]
    figure = go.Figure(
        go.Bar(
            x=labels,
            y=values,
            marker_color=colors,
            text=[f"{value:.3f}" for value in values],
            textposition="outside",
        )
    )
    figure.update_layout(
        title="Association versus causal effect",
        yaxis_title="Estimated average treatment effect",
        template="plotly_dark",
        margin=dict(t=65, b=40),
    )
    return figure, {
        "true_ate": round(results["truth"], 4),
        "naive_bias": round(results["naive"] - results["truth"], 4),
        "aipw_bias": round(results["aipw"] - results["truth"], 4),
        "aipw_95_percent_interval": [
            round(results["aipw_ci_low"], 4),
            round(results["aipw_ci_high"], 4),
        ],
    }


with gr.Blocks(title="Causal Forge") as demo:
    gr.Markdown(
        "# Causal Forge\n"
        "Create a confounded observational study with known counterfactual truth, "
        "then watch causal estimators try to recover the real treatment effect."
    )
    with gr.Row():
        samples = gr.Slider(1_000, 20_000, 5_000, step=500, label="Study size")
        confounding = gr.Slider(
            0.0, 1.8, 1.0, step=0.1, label="Confounding strength"
        )
        seed = gr.Number(2043, precision=0, label="Random seed")
    run = gr.Button("Run observational study", variant="primary")
    chart = gr.Plot()
    metrics = gr.JSON()
    run.click(simulate, [samples, confounding, seed], [chart, metrics])
    demo.load(simulate, [samples, confounding, seed], [chart, metrics])


if __name__ == "__main__":
    demo.launch()