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Update app.py
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app.py
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# HUGING_FACE_V4.2(輕量AI版).py - 已整合 XGBoost 模型 (
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# 系統套件
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import os
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@@ -18,38 +18,28 @@ import requests
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import time # 引用 time 模組以處理時間戳
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# ========================= 引用外部模組 START =========================
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# 引用您組員的預測器程式
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from Bert_predict import BertPredictor
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# 匯入 XGBoostModel 類別
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from model_predictor import XGBoostModel
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# ========================== 引用外部模組 END ==========================
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# ========================= 全域設定 START =========================
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# 將開關設為 True 來啟用您的 XGBoost 模型
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USE_ADVANCED_MODEL = True
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# ========================= CACHE 設定 START =========================
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# 分析結果的快取字典
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ANALYSIS_CACHE = {}
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# 快取有效時間(秒),例如:8 小時 = 8 * 60 * 60 = 28800 秒
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CACHE_DURATION_SECONDS = 8 * 60 * 60
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# ========================== CACHE 設定 END ==========================
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# 在應用程式啟動時,預先載入 XGBoost 模型
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try:
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print("正在初始化 XGBoost 預測模型...")
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xgb_model = XGBoostModel(default_model='xgboost_model')
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print("XGBoost 預測模型初始化成功。")
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"錯誤:XGBoost 預測模型初始化失敗 - {e}")
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# 如果模型載入失敗,則強制關閉進階模型開關,退回簡易模式
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USE_ADVANCED_MODEL = False
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xgb_model = None
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print("警告:已自動切換回簡易統計模型模式。")
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# ========================== 全域設定 END ==========================
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# 台股代號對應表
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TAIWAN_STOCKS = {
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'元大台灣50': '0050.TW', '台積電': '2330.TW', '聯發科': '2454.TW',
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'鴻海': '2317.TW', '台達電': '2308.TW', '廣達': '2382.TW', '富邦金': '2881.TW',
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@@ -68,7 +58,7 @@ TAIWAN_STOCKS = {
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'譜瑞-KY': '4966.TWO', '貿聯-KY': '3665.TW', '騰雲': '6870.TWO', '穩懋': '3105.TWO'
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}
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# 產業分類
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INDUSTRY_MAPPING = {
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'0050.TW': 'ETF', '2330.TW': '半導體', '2454.TW': '半導體', '2317.TW': '電子組件',
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'2308.TW': '電子', '2382.TW': '電子', '2881.TW': '金融', '2891.TW': '金融',
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}
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def get_stock_data(symbol, period='1y'):
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"""獲取股票資料"""
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try:
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stock = yf.Ticker(symbol)
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data = stock.history(period=period)
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return pd.DataFrame()
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def simple_statistical_predict(data, predict_days=5):
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"""【備用模型】簡化的統計預測模型。"""
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if len(data) < 60: return None
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prices = data['Close'].values
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ma_short = np.mean(prices[-5:])
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change_pct = ((predicted_price - prices[-1]) / prices[-1]) * 100
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return {'predicted_price': predicted_price, 'change_pct': change_pct, 'confidence': max(0.6, 1 - volatility * 2)}
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# 【修正 1】: 修正 XGBoost 模型的輸入資料
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def advanced_xgboost_predict(data, predict_days):
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"""
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【進階模型橋接函式】
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- 準備 XGBoost 模型所需的輸入 DataFrame。
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- 呼叫模型進行預測。
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- 將模型的輸出格式轉換為主程式所需的格式。
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"""
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if xgb_model is None or data.empty:
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return None
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# 1. 準備輸入資料
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# 根據錯誤日誌,模型需要的特徵是 ['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Volume']
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feature_columns = ['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Volume']
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# 我們使用最新的資料點來進行未來預測
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input_df = data.tail(1)
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# 確保輸入的 DataFrame 只包含模型需要的欄位
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if not all(col in input_df.columns for col in feature_columns):
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print(f"錯誤: 輸入資料缺少必要欄位。需要 {feature_columns}")
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return None
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# 篩選出模型需要的特徵欄位
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input_df_filtered = input_df[feature_columns]
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try:
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# 2. 呼叫模型預測
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predictions = xgb_model.predict('xgboost_model', input_df_filtered)
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# 3. 根據 predict_days 解析輸出
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day_to_key_map = {
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1: 'Close_t0_pred',
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5: 'Close_t5_pred',
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10: 'Close_t10_pred',
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20: 'Close_t20_pred',
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60: None
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}
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prediction_key = day_to_key_map.get(predict_days)
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if prediction_key is None or prediction_key not in predictions:
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print(f"警告: XGBoost 模型沒有提供 {predict_days} 天的預測結果。")
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return None
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predicted_price = predictions[prediction_key]
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current_price = data['Close'].iloc[-1]
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change_pct = ((predicted_price - current_price) / current_price) * 100
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# 4. 包裝成主程式所需的格式
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return {
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'predicted_price': predicted_price,
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'change_pct': change_pct,
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'confidence': 0.95
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}
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"執行 XGBoost 預測時發生錯誤: {e}")
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return None
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def get_prediction(data, predict_days=5):
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"""
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【模型預測控制器】
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根據 USE_ADVANCED_MODEL 的設定,呼叫對應的預測模型。
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"""
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if USE_ADVANCED_MODEL:
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print(f"模式: 進階XGBoost模型 | 預測天期: {predict_days}天")
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prediction = advanced_xgboost_predict(data, predict_days)
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return prediction
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else:
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print("進階模型預測失敗或無對應天期,自動降級為簡易統計模型。")
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print(f"模式: 簡易統計模型 | 預測天期: {predict_days}天")
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return simple_statistical_predict(data, predict_days)
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def calculate_technical_indicators(df):
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"""計算技術指標"""
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if df.empty: return df
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df['MA5'] = df['Close'].rolling(window=5).mean()
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df['MA20'] = df['Close'].rolling(window=20).mean()
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df['ADX'] = df['DX'].ewm(com=13, adjust=False).mean()
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return df
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#
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def calculate_volume_profile(df, num_bins=50):
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if df.empty or 'High' not in df.columns or 'Low' not in df.columns or 'Volume' not in df.columns:
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# 如果移除 NaN 後沒有數據,則直接返回
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if all_prices.size == 0:
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return None, None, None
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min_price, max_price = all_prices.min(), all_prices.max()
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# 如果價格範圍無效,也返回
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if min_price >= max_price:
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return None, None, None
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price_for_volume = (
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df_vol_profile['Price_Indicator'] = price_for_volume
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# 確保用於計算權重的 Volume 也沒有 NaN
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weights = df_vol_profile['Volume'].fillna(0).values
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price_centers = (bin_edges[:-1] + bin_edges[1:]) / 2
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return bin_edges, hist, price_centers
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api_key = os.getenv("GEMINI_API_KEY")
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if not api_key:
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return "無法讀取 GEMINI API 金鑰", "請在系統環境變數中設定您的金鑰"
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try:
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genai.configure(api_key=api_key)
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model = genai.GenerativeModel('gemini-1.5-flash')
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macd_current = data['MACD'].iloc[-1]
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macd_signal_current = data['MACD_Signal'].iloc[-1]
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industry = INDUSTRY_MAPPING.get(stock_symbol, '綜合')
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-
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prompt = f"""
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我將提供一檔台股的即時技術指標數據,請你基於這些數據,結合你對這家公司、其所在產業以及當前市場趨勢的理解,為我生成一段專業的「基本面分析」和一段「市場展望與投資建議」。
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**股票資訊:**
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- **公司名稱:** {stock_name} ({stock_symbol})
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- **分析期間:** 最近 {period}
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- **目前 RSI 指標:** {rsi_current:.2f}
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- **目前 MACD 指標:** MACD線為 {macd_current:.3f}, 信號線為 {macd_signal_current:.3f}
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**你的任務:**
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1. **基本面分析 (約 150 字):**
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-
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- 提及任何可能影響其基本面的關鍵因素 (例如:財報、法說會、政策、供應鏈變化等)。
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- 請用專業、客觀的語氣撰寫。
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2. **市場展望與投資建議 (約 150 字):**
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- 基於上述所有資訊,提供對該股票的短期和中期市場展望。
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- 提出具體的投資建議,例如:適合何種類型的投資人、潛在的風險點。
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- 請直接提供分析內容,不要包含任何問候語。
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**輸出格式:**
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請嚴格按照以下格式回傳,使用"$$"作為兩個段落之間的分隔符:
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[基本面分析內容]$$[市場展望與投資建議內容]
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"""
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response = model.generate_content(prompt)
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parts = response.text.split('$$')
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print(f"錯誤:新聞情緒分析模型初始化失敗 - {e}")
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predictor = None
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# 應用程式佈局
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app.layout = html.Div([
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html.H1("台股分析儀表板", style={'text-align': 'center', 'margin-bottom': '30px'}),
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html.Div([
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]),
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html.Div([dcc.Graph(id='taiex-prediction-chart')], style={'margin-top': '20px'})
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], style={'background': 'linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%)','padding': '25px','border-radius': '15px','box-shadow': '0 8px 25px rgba(0,0,0,0.15)','color': 'white','margin-bottom': '40px'}),
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-
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html.Div([
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html.H3("📰 市場情緒與新聞分析", style={'color': '#E74C3C', 'margin-bottom': '20px'}),
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html.Div([
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@@ -384,7 +329,6 @@ app.layout = html.Div([
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], style={'width': '48%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'margin-left': '4%'})
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])
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], style={'margin-top': '30px','padding': '20px','background': 'white','border-radius': '10px','box-shadow': '0 2px 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.1)'}),
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-
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html.Div([
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html.H3("景氣燈號與 PMI 分析"),
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html.Div([
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html.Div([dcc.Graph(id='pmi-chart')], style={'width': '48%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'margin-left': '2%'})
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])
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], style={'margin-top': '30px'}),
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-
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html.Div([
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html.Div([
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html.Label("選擇股票:"),
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dcc.Dropdown(id='chart-type', options=[{'label': '線圖', 'value': 'line'},{'label': '蠟燭圖', 'value': 'candlestick'}], value='candlestick', style={'margin-bottom': '10px'})
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], style={'width': '30%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'margin-left': '5%', 'vertical-align': 'top'})
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], style={'margin-bottom': '30px'}),
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-
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html.Div(id='stock-info-cards', style={'margin-bottom': '30px'}),
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html.Div([html.Div([dcc.Graph(id='price-chart')], style={'width': '100%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'vertical-align': 'top'})]),
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html.Div([
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], style={'margin-top': '30px','padding': '20px','background': 'white','border-radius': '10px','box-shadow': '0 2px 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.1)'}),
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])
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@app.callback(
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[dash.dependencies.Output('taiex-prediction-results', 'children'),
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dash.dependencies.Output('taiex-prediction-chart', 'figure')],
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def update_taiex_prediction(predict_days):
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data = get_stock_data('^TWII', '2y')
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if data.empty: return html.Div("無法獲取台指期資料"), {}
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-
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final_prediction = get_prediction(data, predict_days)
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-
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if final_prediction is None: return html.Div("資料不足或模型無法預測此天期"), {}
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current_price, last_date = data['Close'].iloc[-1], data.index[-1]
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predicted_price, change_pct, confidence = final_prediction['predicted_price'], final_prediction['change_pct'], final_prediction['confidence']
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-
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prediction_paths = {1: [1], 5: [1, 5], 10: [1, 5, 10], 20: [1, 10, 20]}
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intervals_to_predict = prediction_paths.get(predict_days, [predict_days])
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prediction_dates, prediction_prices = [last_date], [current_price]
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-
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for days in intervals_to_predict:
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interim_prediction = get_prediction(data, days)
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if interim_prediction:
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prediction_dates.append(last_date + timedelta(days=days))
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prediction_prices.append(interim_prediction['predicted_price'])
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-
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color, arrow = ('red', '📈') if change_pct >= 0 else ('green', '📉')
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result_card = html.Div([
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html.H4(f"{predict_days}日後預測結果", style={'margin': '0 0 15px 0', 'color': 'white'}),
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data = get_stock_data(symbol, '1mo')
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if not data.empty and len(data) > 1:
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return_pct = ((data['Close'].iloc[-1] - data['Close'].iloc[0]) / data['Close'].iloc[0]) * 100
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performance_data.append({
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'股票': name,
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'代碼': symbol,
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'月報酬率(%)': return_pct,
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'絕對波動': abs(return_pct)
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})
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if not performance_data:
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fig = go.Figure().add_annotation(text="無法計算產業資料", showarrow=False)
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fig.update_layout(title="近一月市場波動最大標的", height=400)
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return fig
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df_performance = pd.DataFrame(performance_data)
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| 649 |
df_top_movers = df_performance.sort_values(by='絕對波動', ascending=False).head(10)
|
| 650 |
-
fig = px.pie(
|
| 651 |
-
|
| 652 |
-
values='絕對波動',
|
| 653 |
-
names='股票',
|
| 654 |
-
title='近一月市場波動最大 Top 10 標的',
|
| 655 |
-
hover_data={'月報酬率(%)': ':.2f'}
|
| 656 |
-
)
|
| 657 |
-
fig.update_traces(
|
| 658 |
-
textposition='inside',
|
| 659 |
-
textinfo='percent+label',
|
| 660 |
-
hovertemplate="<b>%{label}</b><br>月報酬率: %{customdata[0]:.2f}%<extra></extra>"
|
| 661 |
-
)
|
| 662 |
fig.update_layout(height=400, showlegend=False)
|
| 663 |
return fig
|
| 664 |
|
|
@@ -696,41 +619,28 @@ def update_business_climate_chart(selected_stock):
|
|
| 696 |
def update_analysis_text(selected_stock, period):
|
| 697 |
cache_key = f"{selected_stock}-{period}"
|
| 698 |
current_time = time.time()
|
| 699 |
-
|
| 700 |
if cache_key in ANALYSIS_CACHE:
|
| 701 |
cached_data = ANALYSIS_CACHE[cache_key]
|
| 702 |
if current_time - cached_data['timestamp'] < CACHE_DURATION_SECONDS:
|
| 703 |
print(f"從快取載入分析: {cache_key}")
|
| 704 |
return cached_data['technical'], cached_data['fundamental'], cached_data['outlook']
|
| 705 |
-
|
| 706 |
print(f"重新生成分析: {selected_stock}-{period}")
|
| 707 |
data = get_stock_data(selected_stock, period)
|
| 708 |
stock_name = [name for name, symbol in TAIWAN_STOCKS.items() if symbol == selected_stock][0]
|
| 709 |
if data.empty or len(data) < 20:
|
| 710 |
return "資料不足,無法分析", "資料不足,無法分析", "資料不足,無法分析"
|
| 711 |
-
|
| 712 |
data = calculate_technical_indicators(data)
|
| 713 |
-
|
| 714 |
price_change = ((data['Close'].iloc[-1] - data['Close'].iloc[0]) / data['Close'].iloc[0]) * 100
|
| 715 |
rsi_current = data['RSI'].iloc[-1] if not pd.isna(data['RSI'].iloc[-1]) else 50
|
| 716 |
macd_current = data['MACD'].iloc[-1] if not pd.isna(data['MACD'].iloc[-1]) else 0
|
| 717 |
macd_signal_current = data['MACD_Signal'].iloc[-1] if not pd.isna(data['MACD_Signal'].iloc[-1]) else 0
|
| 718 |
-
|
| 719 |
technical_text = html.Div([
|
| 720 |
html.P([html.Strong("價格趨勢:"), f"在最近 {period} 期間內,{stock_name} 股價呈現", html.Span(f"{'上漲' if price_change > 5 else '下跌' if price_change < -5 else '盤整'}", style={'color': 'red' if price_change > 5 else 'green' if price_change < -5 else 'orange', 'font-weight': 'bold'}), f"走勢,累計變動 {price_change:+.1f}%。"]),
|
| 721 |
html.P([html.Strong("RSI 指標:"), f"目前的 RSI 值為 {rsi_current:.1f},", html.Span("處於超買區(>70)" if rsi_current > 70 else "處於超賣區(<30)" if rsi_current < 30 else "在正常範圍內", style={'color': 'green' if rsi_current > 70 else 'red' if rsi_current < 30 else 'blue', 'font-weight': 'bold'}), "。"]),
|
| 722 |
html.P([html.Strong("MACD 指標:"), f"MACD 快線 ({macd_current:.3f}) 目前", html.Span("高於" if macd_current > macd_signal_current else "低於", style={'color': 'red' if macd_current > macd_signal_current else 'green', 'font-weight': 'bold'}), f" Signal 慢線 ({macd_signal_current:.3f}),", f"顯示市場動能偏向{'多頭' if macd_current > macd_signal_current else '空頭'}。"]),
|
| 723 |
])
|
| 724 |
-
|
| 725 |
fundamental_text, market_outlook_text = generate_gemini_analysis(stock_name, selected_stock, period, data)
|
| 726 |
-
|
| 727 |
-
ANALYSIS_CACHE[cache_key] = {
|
| 728 |
-
'technical': technical_text,
|
| 729 |
-
'fundamental': fundamental_text,
|
| 730 |
-
'outlook': market_outlook_text,
|
| 731 |
-
'timestamp': current_time
|
| 732 |
-
}
|
| 733 |
-
|
| 734 |
return technical_text, fundamental_text, market_outlook_text
|
| 735 |
|
| 736 |
@app.callback(
|
|
@@ -754,16 +664,12 @@ def summarize_news_with_gemini(news_list: list) -> str:
|
|
| 754 |
api_key = os.getenv("GEMINI_API_KEY")
|
| 755 |
if not api_key:
|
| 756 |
return "錯誤:找不到 GEMINI_API_KEY。請在 Hugging Face Secrets 中設定。"
|
| 757 |
-
|
| 758 |
try:
|
| 759 |
genai.configure(api_key=api_key)
|
| 760 |
model = genai.GenerativeModel('gemini-1.5-flash')
|
| 761 |
formatted_news = "\n".join([f"- {news}" for news in news_list])
|
| 762 |
prompt = f"""
|
| 763 |
-
|
| 764 |
-
以下是幾則最新的英文財經新聞標題,請將它們整合成一段簡潔、流暢、約 200 字的繁體中文市場動態摘要,與利多哪些產業,利空哪些產業。
|
| 765 |
-
提供3段重點,
|
| 766 |
-
請專注於可能影響市場情緒和股價的關鍵資訊,並直接提供摘要內容,不要包含任何額外的問候語或說明。
|
| 767 |
英文新聞標題如下:
|
| 768 |
{formatted_news}
|
| 769 |
"""
|
|
@@ -793,7 +699,6 @@ def update_comparison_analysis(selected_stocks, period):
|
|
| 793 |
normalized_prices = (data['Close'] / data['Close'].iloc[0]) * 100
|
| 794 |
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=normalized_prices, mode='lines', name=stock_name, line=dict(width=2)))
|
| 795 |
total_return = ((data['Close'].iloc[-1] / data['Close'].iloc[0]) - 1) * 100
|
| 796 |
-
# 【修正 3】: 修正 FutureWarning 警告
|
| 797 |
volatility = data['Close'].pct_change(fill_method=None).std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
|
| 798 |
comparison_data.append({'name': stock_name, 'return': total_return, 'volatility': volatility, 'current_price': data['Close'].iloc[-1]})
|
| 799 |
fig.update_layout(title=f'股票績效比較 - {period}', xaxis_title='日期', yaxis_title='相對績效 (基期=100)', height=400, hovermode='x unified')
|
|
@@ -816,9 +721,7 @@ def update_sentiment_analysis(selected_stock):
|
|
| 816 |
error_fig = go.Figure().add_annotation(text="情緒指標模型載入失敗", showarrow=False)
|
| 817 |
error_fig.update_layout(height=200)
|
| 818 |
return dcc.Graph(figure=error_fig), html.P("新聞分析模型載入失敗,請檢查後台日誌。")
|
| 819 |
-
|
| 820 |
sentiment_score_raw = predictor.get_news_index()
|
| 821 |
-
|
| 822 |
if sentiment_score_raw is not None:
|
| 823 |
sentiment_score_normalized = (sentiment_score_raw + 1) * 50
|
| 824 |
sentiment_score_normalized = max(0, min(100, sentiment_score_normalized))
|
|
@@ -843,21 +746,15 @@ def update_sentiment_analysis(selected_stock):
|
|
| 843 |
error_fig = go.Figure().add_annotation(text="今日尚無情緒分數", showarrow=False)
|
| 844 |
error_fig.update_layout(height=200)
|
| 845 |
gauge_content = dcc.Graph(figure=error_fig)
|
| 846 |
-
|
| 847 |
top_news_list = predictor.get_news()
|
| 848 |
news_content = None
|
| 849 |
-
|
| 850 |
if top_news_list and isinstance(top_news_list, list):
|
| 851 |
summary_text = summarize_news_with_gemini(top_news_list)
|
| 852 |
-
news_content = dcc.Markdown(summary_text, style={
|
| 853 |
-
'margin': '8px 0', 'padding-left': '5px',
|
| 854 |
-
'font-size': '15px', 'line-height': '1.7'
|
| 855 |
-
})
|
| 856 |
elif top_news_list == []:
|
| 857 |
news_content = html.P("昨日無重大相關新聞。", style={'text-align': 'center', 'padding-top': '50px'})
|
| 858 |
else:
|
| 859 |
news_content = html.P("讀取新聞時發生錯誤。", style={'text-align': 'center', 'padding-top': '50px'})
|
| 860 |
-
|
| 861 |
return gauge_content, news_content
|
| 862 |
|
| 863 |
# 主程式執行
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# HUGING_FACE_V4.2(輕量AI版).py - 已整合 XGBoost 模型 (最終修正版)
|
| 2 |
|
| 3 |
# 系統套件
|
| 4 |
import os
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
import time # 引用 time 模組以處理時間戳
|
| 19 |
|
| 20 |
# ========================= 引用外部模組 START =========================
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
from Bert_predict import BertPredictor
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
from model_predictor import XGBoostModel
|
| 23 |
# ========================== 引用外部模組 END ==========================
|
| 24 |
|
| 25 |
# ========================= 全域設定 START =========================
|
|
|
|
| 26 |
USE_ADVANCED_MODEL = True
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 27 |
ANALYSIS_CACHE = {}
|
|
|
|
| 28 |
CACHE_DURATION_SECONDS = 8 * 60 * 60
|
| 29 |
# ========================== CACHE 設定 END ==========================
|
| 30 |
|
|
|
|
| 31 |
try:
|
| 32 |
print("正在初始化 XGBoost 預測模型...")
|
| 33 |
xgb_model = XGBoostModel(default_model='xgboost_model')
|
| 34 |
print("XGBoost 預測模型初始化成功。")
|
| 35 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 36 |
print(f"錯誤:XGBoost 預測模型初始化失敗 - {e}")
|
|
|
|
| 37 |
USE_ADVANCED_MODEL = False
|
| 38 |
xgb_model = None
|
| 39 |
print("警告:已自動切換回簡易統計模型模式。")
|
| 40 |
# ========================== 全域設定 END ==========================
|
| 41 |
|
| 42 |
+
# 台股代號對應表 (省略)
|
| 43 |
TAIWAN_STOCKS = {
|
| 44 |
'元大台灣50': '0050.TW', '台積電': '2330.TW', '聯發科': '2454.TW',
|
| 45 |
'鴻海': '2317.TW', '台達電': '2308.TW', '廣達': '2382.TW', '富邦金': '2881.TW',
|
|
|
|
| 58 |
'譜瑞-KY': '4966.TWO', '貿聯-KY': '3665.TW', '騰雲': '6870.TWO', '穩懋': '3105.TWO'
|
| 59 |
}
|
| 60 |
|
| 61 |
+
# 產業分類 (省略)
|
| 62 |
INDUSTRY_MAPPING = {
|
| 63 |
'0050.TW': 'ETF', '2330.TW': '半導體', '2454.TW': '半導體', '2317.TW': '電子組件',
|
| 64 |
'2308.TW': '電子', '2382.TW': '電子', '2881.TW': '金融', '2891.TW': '金融',
|
|
|
|
| 78 |
}
|
| 79 |
|
| 80 |
def get_stock_data(symbol, period='1y'):
|
|
|
|
| 81 |
try:
|
| 82 |
stock = yf.Ticker(symbol)
|
| 83 |
data = stock.history(period=period)
|
|
|
|
| 92 |
return pd.DataFrame()
|
| 93 |
|
| 94 |
def simple_statistical_predict(data, predict_days=5):
|
|
|
|
| 95 |
if len(data) < 60: return None
|
| 96 |
prices = data['Close'].values
|
| 97 |
ma_short = np.mean(prices[-5:])
|
|
|
|
| 106 |
change_pct = ((predicted_price - prices[-1]) / prices[-1]) * 100
|
| 107 |
return {'predicted_price': predicted_price, 'change_pct': change_pct, 'confidence': max(0.6, 1 - volatility * 2)}
|
| 108 |
|
|
|
|
| 109 |
def advanced_xgboost_predict(data, predict_days):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 110 |
if xgb_model is None or data.empty:
|
| 111 |
return None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 112 |
feature_columns = ['Open', 'High', 'Low', 'Volume']
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 113 |
input_df = data.tail(1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 114 |
if not all(col in input_df.columns for col in feature_columns):
|
| 115 |
print(f"錯誤: 輸入資料缺少必要欄位。需要 {feature_columns}")
|
| 116 |
return None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 117 |
input_df_filtered = input_df[feature_columns]
|
|
|
|
| 118 |
try:
|
|
|
|
| 119 |
predictions = xgb_model.predict('xgboost_model', input_df_filtered)
|
| 120 |
+
day_to_key_map = {1: 'Close_t0_pred', 5: 'Close_t5_pred', 10: 'Close_t10_pred', 20: 'Close_t20_pred', 60: None}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 121 |
prediction_key = day_to_key_map.get(predict_days)
|
|
|
|
| 122 |
if prediction_key is None or prediction_key not in predictions:
|
| 123 |
print(f"警告: XGBoost 模型沒有提供 {predict_days} 天的預測結果。")
|
| 124 |
return None
|
|
|
|
| 125 |
predicted_price = predictions[prediction_key]
|
| 126 |
current_price = data['Close'].iloc[-1]
|
| 127 |
change_pct = ((predicted_price - current_price) / current_price) * 100
|
| 128 |
+
return {'predicted_price': predicted_price, 'change_pct': change_pct, 'confidence': 0.95}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 129 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 130 |
print(f"執行 XGBoost 預測時發生錯誤: {e}")
|
| 131 |
return None
|
| 132 |
|
| 133 |
def get_prediction(data, predict_days=5):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 134 |
if USE_ADVANCED_MODEL:
|
| 135 |
print(f"模式: 進階XGBoost模型 | 預測天期: {predict_days}天")
|
| 136 |
prediction = advanced_xgboost_predict(data, predict_days)
|
|
|
|
| 138 |
return prediction
|
| 139 |
else:
|
| 140 |
print("進階模型預測失敗或無對應天期,自動降級為簡易統計模型。")
|
|
|
|
| 141 |
print(f"模式: 簡易統計模型 | 預測天期: {predict_days}天")
|
| 142 |
return simple_statistical_predict(data, predict_days)
|
| 143 |
|
| 144 |
def calculate_technical_indicators(df):
|
|
|
|
| 145 |
if df.empty: return df
|
| 146 |
df['MA5'] = df['Close'].rolling(window=5).mean()
|
| 147 |
df['MA20'] = df['Close'].rolling(window=20).mean()
|
|
|
|
| 178 |
df['ADX'] = df['DX'].ewm(com=13, adjust=False).mean()
|
| 179 |
return df
|
| 180 |
|
| 181 |
+
# 【【【主要修正點】】】: 修正 calculate_volume_profile 函式以處理 NaN 和 shape 不匹配問題
|
| 182 |
def calculate_volume_profile(df, num_bins=50):
|
| 183 |
+
if df.empty or 'High' not in df.columns or 'Low' not in df.columns or 'Volume' not in df.columns:
|
| 184 |
+
return None, None, None
|
| 185 |
+
|
| 186 |
+
# 建立一個包含所需欄位的臨時 DataFrame
|
| 187 |
+
df_temp = pd.DataFrame({
|
| 188 |
+
'High': df['High'],
|
| 189 |
+
'Low': df['Low'],
|
| 190 |
+
'Close': df['Close'],
|
| 191 |
+
'Volume': df['Volume']
|
| 192 |
+
})
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
+
# 一次性移除任何欄位包含 NaN 的整行資料
|
| 195 |
+
df_temp.dropna(inplace=True)
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
if df_temp.empty:
|
| 198 |
+
return None, None, None
|
| 199 |
+
|
| 200 |
+
# 從清理過的 DataFrame 中獲取資料
|
| 201 |
+
all_prices = np.concatenate([df_temp['High'].values, df_temp['Low'].values])
|
| 202 |
|
|
|
|
| 203 |
if all_prices.size == 0:
|
| 204 |
return None, None, None
|
| 205 |
|
| 206 |
min_price, max_price = all_prices.min(), all_prices.max()
|
| 207 |
|
|
|
|
| 208 |
if min_price >= max_price:
|
| 209 |
return None, None, None
|
| 210 |
|
| 211 |
+
price_for_volume = (df_temp['High'] + df_temp['Low'] + df_temp['Close']) / 3
|
| 212 |
+
weights = df_temp['Volume'].values
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 213 |
|
| 214 |
+
# 現在 price_for_volume 和 weights 的長度保證一致
|
| 215 |
+
hist, bin_edges = np.histogram(price_for_volume, bins=num_bins, range=(min_price, max_price), weights=weights)
|
| 216 |
price_centers = (bin_edges[:-1] + bin_edges[1:]) / 2
|
| 217 |
return bin_edges, hist, price_centers
|
| 218 |
|
|
|
|
| 249 |
api_key = os.getenv("GEMINI_API_KEY")
|
| 250 |
if not api_key:
|
| 251 |
return "無法讀取 GEMINI API 金鑰", "請在系統環境變數中設定您的金鑰"
|
|
|
|
| 252 |
try:
|
| 253 |
genai.configure(api_key=api_key)
|
| 254 |
model = genai.GenerativeModel('gemini-1.5-flash')
|
|
|
|
| 257 |
macd_current = data['MACD'].iloc[-1]
|
| 258 |
macd_signal_current = data['MACD_Signal'].iloc[-1]
|
| 259 |
industry = INDUSTRY_MAPPING.get(stock_symbol, '綜合')
|
|
|
|
| 260 |
prompt = f"""
|
| 261 |
+
請扮演一位專業、資深的台灣股市金融分析師。我將提供一檔台股的即時技術指標數據,請你基於這些數據,結合你對這家公司、其所在產業以及當前市場趨勢的理解,為我生成一段專業的「基本面分析」和一段「市場展望與投資建議」。
|
|
|
|
| 262 |
**股票資訊:**
|
| 263 |
- **公司名稱:** {stock_name} ({stock_symbol})
|
| 264 |
- **分析期間:** 最近 {period}
|
|
|
|
| 267 |
- **目前 RSI 指標:** {rsi_current:.2f}
|
| 268 |
- **目前 MACD 指標:** MACD線為 {macd_current:.3f}, 信號線為 {macd_signal_current:.3f}
|
| 269 |
**你的任務:**
|
| 270 |
+
1. **基本面分析 (約 150 字):** 評論這家公司的產業地位、近期營運亮點或挑戰。提及任何可能影響其基本面的關鍵因素 (例如:財報、法說會、政策、供應鏈變化等)。請用專業、客觀的語氣撰寫。
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| 271 |
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2. **市場展望與投資建議 (約 150 字):** 基於上述所有資訊,提供對該股票的短期和中期市場展望。提出具體的投資建議,例如:適合何種類型的投資人、潛在的風險點。請直接提供分析內容,不要包含任何問候語。
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| 272 |
**輸出格式:**
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請嚴格按照以下格式回傳,使用"$$"作為兩個段落之間的分隔符:[基本面分析內容]$$[市場展望與投資建議內容]
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| 274 |
"""
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response = model.generate_content(prompt)
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parts = response.text.split('$$')
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| 297 |
print(f"錯誤:新聞情緒分析模型初始化失敗 - {e}")
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predictor = None
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| 299 |
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+
# 應用程式佈局 (省略)
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app.layout = html.Div([
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html.H1("台股分析儀表板", style={'text-align': 'center', 'margin-bottom': '30px'}),
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html.Div([
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| 316 |
]),
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html.Div([dcc.Graph(id='taiex-prediction-chart')], style={'margin-top': '20px'})
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], style={'background': 'linear-gradient(135deg, #667eea 0%, #764ba2 100%)','padding': '25px','border-radius': '15px','box-shadow': '0 8px 25px rgba(0,0,0,0.15)','color': 'white','margin-bottom': '40px'}),
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html.Div([
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html.H3("📰 市場情緒與新聞分析", style={'color': '#E74C3C', 'margin-bottom': '20px'}),
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html.Div([
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| 329 |
], style={'width': '48%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'margin-left': '4%'})
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])
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], style={'margin-top': '30px','padding': '20px','background': 'white','border-radius': '10px','box-shadow': '0 2px 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.1)'}),
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| 332 |
html.Div([
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html.H3("景氣燈號與 PMI 分析"),
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html.Div([
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html.Div([dcc.Graph(id='pmi-chart')], style={'width': '48%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'margin-left': '2%'})
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])
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], style={'margin-top': '30px'}),
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html.Div([
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html.Div([
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html.Label("選擇股票:"),
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dcc.Dropdown(id='chart-type', options=[{'label': '線圖', 'value': 'line'},{'label': '蠟燭圖', 'value': 'candlestick'}], value='candlestick', style={'margin-bottom': '10px'})
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], style={'width': '30%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'margin-left': '5%', 'vertical-align': 'top'})
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], style={'margin-bottom': '30px'}),
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html.Div(id='stock-info-cards', style={'margin-bottom': '30px'}),
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html.Div([html.Div([dcc.Graph(id='price-chart')], style={'width': '100%', 'display': 'inline-block', 'vertical-align': 'top'})]),
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html.Div([
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], style={'margin-top': '30px','padding': '20px','background': 'white','border-radius': '10px','box-shadow': '0 2px 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.1)'}),
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])
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# 所有 Callback 函式 (省略)
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@app.callback(
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[dash.dependencies.Output('taiex-prediction-results', 'children'),
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dash.dependencies.Output('taiex-prediction-chart', 'figure')],
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| 413 |
def update_taiex_prediction(predict_days):
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data = get_stock_data('^TWII', '2y')
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if data.empty: return html.Div("無法獲取台指期資料"), {}
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final_prediction = get_prediction(data, predict_days)
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if final_prediction is None: return html.Div("資料不足或模型無法預測此天期"), {}
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current_price, last_date = data['Close'].iloc[-1], data.index[-1]
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predicted_price, change_pct, confidence = final_prediction['predicted_price'], final_prediction['change_pct'], final_prediction['confidence']
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prediction_paths = {1: [1], 5: [1, 5], 10: [1, 5, 10], 20: [1, 10, 20]}
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intervals_to_predict = prediction_paths.get(predict_days, [predict_days])
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prediction_dates, prediction_prices = [last_date], [current_price]
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for days in intervals_to_predict:
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interim_prediction = get_prediction(data, days)
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if interim_prediction:
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prediction_dates.append(last_date + timedelta(days=days))
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prediction_prices.append(interim_prediction['predicted_price'])
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color, arrow = ('red', '📈') if change_pct >= 0 else ('green', '📉')
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result_card = html.Div([
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html.H4(f"{predict_days}日後預測結果", style={'margin': '0 0 15px 0', 'color': 'white'}),
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data = get_stock_data(symbol, '1mo')
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if not data.empty and len(data) > 1:
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return_pct = ((data['Close'].iloc[-1] - data['Close'].iloc[0]) / data['Close'].iloc[0]) * 100
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performance_data.append({'股票': name, '代碼': symbol, '月報酬率(%)': return_pct, '絕對波動': abs(return_pct)})
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if not performance_data:
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fig = go.Figure().add_annotation(text="無法計算產業資料", showarrow=False)
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fig.update_layout(title="近一月市場波動最大標的", height=400)
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return fig
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df_performance = pd.DataFrame(performance_data)
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df_top_movers = df_performance.sort_values(by='絕對波動', ascending=False).head(10)
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fig = px.pie(df_top_movers, values='絕對波動', names='股票', title='近一月市場波動最大 Top 10 標的', hover_data={'月報酬率(%)': ':.2f'})
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fig.update_traces(textposition='inside', textinfo='percent+label', hovertemplate="<b>%{label}</b><br>月報酬率: %{customdata[0]:.2f}%<extra></extra>")
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fig.update_layout(height=400, showlegend=False)
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return fig
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def update_analysis_text(selected_stock, period):
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cache_key = f"{selected_stock}-{period}"
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current_time = time.time()
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if cache_key in ANALYSIS_CACHE:
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| 623 |
cached_data = ANALYSIS_CACHE[cache_key]
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| 624 |
if current_time - cached_data['timestamp'] < CACHE_DURATION_SECONDS:
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| 625 |
print(f"從快取載入分析: {cache_key}")
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| 626 |
return cached_data['technical'], cached_data['fundamental'], cached_data['outlook']
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| 627 |
print(f"重新生成分析: {selected_stock}-{period}")
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data = get_stock_data(selected_stock, period)
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| 629 |
stock_name = [name for name, symbol in TAIWAN_STOCKS.items() if symbol == selected_stock][0]
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| 630 |
if data.empty or len(data) < 20:
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| 631 |
return "資料不足,無法分析", "資料不足,無法分析", "資料不足,無法分析"
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data = calculate_technical_indicators(data)
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price_change = ((data['Close'].iloc[-1] - data['Close'].iloc[0]) / data['Close'].iloc[0]) * 100
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| 634 |
rsi_current = data['RSI'].iloc[-1] if not pd.isna(data['RSI'].iloc[-1]) else 50
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| 635 |
macd_current = data['MACD'].iloc[-1] if not pd.isna(data['MACD'].iloc[-1]) else 0
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macd_signal_current = data['MACD_Signal'].iloc[-1] if not pd.isna(data['MACD_Signal'].iloc[-1]) else 0
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| 637 |
technical_text = html.Div([
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| 638 |
html.P([html.Strong("價格趨勢:"), f"在最近 {period} 期間內,{stock_name} 股價呈現", html.Span(f"{'上漲' if price_change > 5 else '下跌' if price_change < -5 else '盤整'}", style={'color': 'red' if price_change > 5 else 'green' if price_change < -5 else 'orange', 'font-weight': 'bold'}), f"走勢,累計變動 {price_change:+.1f}%。"]),
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| 639 |
html.P([html.Strong("RSI 指標:"), f"目前的 RSI 值為 {rsi_current:.1f},", html.Span("處於超買區(>70)" if rsi_current > 70 else "處於超賣區(<30)" if rsi_current < 30 else "在正常範圍內", style={'color': 'green' if rsi_current > 70 else 'red' if rsi_current < 30 else 'blue', 'font-weight': 'bold'}), "。"]),
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html.P([html.Strong("MACD 指標:"), f"MACD 快線 ({macd_current:.3f}) 目前", html.Span("高於" if macd_current > macd_signal_current else "低於", style={'color': 'red' if macd_current > macd_signal_current else 'green', 'font-weight': 'bold'}), f" Signal 慢線 ({macd_signal_current:.3f}),", f"顯示市場動能偏向{'多頭' if macd_current > macd_signal_current else '空頭'}。"]),
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| 641 |
])
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| 642 |
fundamental_text, market_outlook_text = generate_gemini_analysis(stock_name, selected_stock, period, data)
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| 643 |
+
ANALYSIS_CACHE[cache_key] = {'technical': technical_text, 'fundamental': fundamental_text, 'outlook': market_outlook_text, 'timestamp': current_time}
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| 644 |
return technical_text, fundamental_text, market_outlook_text
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| 645 |
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| 646 |
@app.callback(
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| 664 |
api_key = os.getenv("GEMINI_API_KEY")
|
| 665 |
if not api_key:
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| 666 |
return "錯誤:找不到 GEMINI_API_KEY。請在 Hugging Face Secrets 中設定。"
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| 667 |
try:
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| 668 |
genai.configure(api_key=api_key)
|
| 669 |
model = genai.GenerativeModel('gemini-1.5-flash')
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| 670 |
formatted_news = "\n".join([f"- {news}" for news in news_list])
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| 671 |
prompt = f"""
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| 672 |
+
請扮演一位專業的金融市場分析師。以下是幾則最新的英文財經新聞標題,請將它們整合成一段簡潔、流暢、約 200 字的繁體中文市場動態摘要,與利多哪些產業,利空哪些產業。提供3段重點,請專注於可能影響市場情緒和股價的關鍵資訊,並直接提供摘要內容,不要包含任何額外的問候語或說明。
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| 673 |
英文新聞標題如下:
|
| 674 |
{formatted_news}
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| 675 |
"""
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|
| 699 |
normalized_prices = (data['Close'] / data['Close'].iloc[0]) * 100
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| 700 |
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=data.index, y=normalized_prices, mode='lines', name=stock_name, line=dict(width=2)))
|
| 701 |
total_return = ((data['Close'].iloc[-1] / data['Close'].iloc[0]) - 1) * 100
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| 702 |
volatility = data['Close'].pct_change(fill_method=None).std() * np.sqrt(252) * 100
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| 703 |
comparison_data.append({'name': stock_name, 'return': total_return, 'volatility': volatility, 'current_price': data['Close'].iloc[-1]})
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| 704 |
fig.update_layout(title=f'股票績效比較 - {period}', xaxis_title='日期', yaxis_title='相對績效 (基期=100)', height=400, hovermode='x unified')
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| 721 |
error_fig = go.Figure().add_annotation(text="情緒指標模型載入失敗", showarrow=False)
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| 722 |
error_fig.update_layout(height=200)
|
| 723 |
return dcc.Graph(figure=error_fig), html.P("新聞分析模型載入失敗,請檢查後台日誌。")
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|
| 724 |
sentiment_score_raw = predictor.get_news_index()
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|
| 725 |
if sentiment_score_raw is not None:
|
| 726 |
sentiment_score_normalized = (sentiment_score_raw + 1) * 50
|
| 727 |
sentiment_score_normalized = max(0, min(100, sentiment_score_normalized))
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| 746 |
error_fig = go.Figure().add_annotation(text="今日尚無情緒分數", showarrow=False)
|
| 747 |
error_fig.update_layout(height=200)
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| 748 |
gauge_content = dcc.Graph(figure=error_fig)
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| 749 |
top_news_list = predictor.get_news()
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| 750 |
news_content = None
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| 751 |
if top_news_list and isinstance(top_news_list, list):
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| 752 |
summary_text = summarize_news_with_gemini(top_news_list)
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| 753 |
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news_content = dcc.Markdown(summary_text, style={'margin': '8px 0', 'padding-left': '5px', 'font-size': '15px', 'line-height': '1.7'})
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| 754 |
elif top_news_list == []:
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| 755 |
news_content = html.P("昨日無重大相關新聞。", style={'text-align': 'center', 'padding-top': '50px'})
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| 756 |
else:
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| 757 |
news_content = html.P("讀取新聞時發生錯誤。", style={'text-align': 'center', 'padding-top': '50px'})
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| 758 |
return gauge_content, news_content
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| 759 |
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| 760 |
# 主程式執行
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