| | from __future__ import annotations |
| |
|
| | from dataclasses import dataclass |
| | from typing import Literal |
| |
|
| | DEFAULT_MAX_TURNS = 1_000 |
| | DEFAULT_TRAINING_STAGE = "stage_3_sparse" |
| |
|
| | TrainingStage = Literal["stage_1_dense", "stage_2_partial", "stage_3_sparse"] |
| |
|
| | ALGORITHM_HINTS = { |
| | "single_agent": "PPO", |
| | "multi_agent": "GRPO", |
| | "post_training": "TRL + Unsloth", |
| | "inference_stack": "tool-using instruct checkpoints with Unsloth-friendly adapters", |
| | } |
| |
|
| | TRAINING_STAGE_CONFIGS: dict[TrainingStage, dict[str, bool]] = { |
| | "stage_1_dense": { |
| | "dense_rewards": True, |
| | "fog_of_war": False, |
| | "oversight_enabled": False, |
| | "live_mode_capable": False, |
| | }, |
| | "stage_2_partial": { |
| | "dense_rewards": False, |
| | "fog_of_war": True, |
| | "oversight_enabled": False, |
| | "live_mode_capable": False, |
| | }, |
| | "stage_3_sparse": { |
| | "dense_rewards": False, |
| | "fog_of_war": True, |
| | "oversight_enabled": True, |
| | "live_mode_capable": True, |
| | }, |
| | } |
| |
|
| |
|
| | @dataclass(frozen=True) |
| | class ActionImpact: |
| | tension_delta: float = 0.0 |
| | market_delta: float = 0.0 |
| | oil_delta: float = 0.0 |
| | risk_delta: float = 0.0 |
| |
|
| |
|
| | @dataclass(frozen=True) |
| | class RewardMetricConfig: |
| | target: float |
| | tolerance: float |
| | weight: float |
| |
|
| |
|
| | DEFAULT_ACTION_IMPACTS: dict[str, ActionImpact] = { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.0, market_delta=-0.2), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-4.0, market_delta=-1.2, oil_delta=-0.8, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=4.0, market_delta=1.2, oil_delta=3.0, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=10.0, market_delta=6.0, oil_delta=3.5, risk_delta=0.05), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.0, market_delta=-0.5, oil_delta=-0.2, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=0.0, market_delta=0.2, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=6.0, market_delta=3.0, oil_delta=1.5, risk_delta=0.03), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=4.0, market_delta=1.0, oil_delta=1.0, risk_delta=0.06), |
| | "oversight_review": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-3.0, market_delta=-1.0, oil_delta=-0.4, risk_delta=-0.04), |
| | } |
| |
|
| |
|
| | AGENT_ACTION_IMPACTS: dict[str, dict[str, ActionImpact]] = { |
| | "us": { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.4, market_delta=-0.4, oil_delta=-0.3), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-5.5, market_delta=-2.5, oil_delta=-1.4, risk_delta=-0.03), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=5.0, market_delta=1.8, oil_delta=4.8, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=11.0, market_delta=6.5, oil_delta=4.5, risk_delta=0.05), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.8, market_delta=-1.2, oil_delta=-0.8, risk_delta=-0.03), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=0.1, market_delta=0.15, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=6.5, market_delta=5.4, oil_delta=2.4, risk_delta=0.03), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=3.5, market_delta=0.8, oil_delta=0.6, risk_delta=0.05), |
| | }, |
| | "israel": { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-0.4, market_delta=0.0, oil_delta=0.0), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-2.8, market_delta=-0.3, oil_delta=-0.2, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=3.5, market_delta=0.6, oil_delta=0.2, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=14.0, market_delta=4.5, oil_delta=1.2, risk_delta=0.06), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-2.2, market_delta=-0.7, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=0.0, market_delta=0.1, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=8.2, market_delta=2.5, oil_delta=0.4, risk_delta=0.03), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=2.4, market_delta=0.4, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.04), |
| | }, |
| | "iran": { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-0.6), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-2.0, market_delta=-0.9, oil_delta=-3.0, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=3.0, market_delta=0.5, oil_delta=2.0, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=11.5, market_delta=5.2, oil_delta=9.5, risk_delta=0.06), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-0.8, market_delta=-0.2, oil_delta=0.2, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=0.0, market_delta=0.1, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=7.8, market_delta=3.2, oil_delta=7.5, risk_delta=0.03), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=5.0, market_delta=0.8, oil_delta=4.2, risk_delta=0.04), |
| | }, |
| | "hezbollah": { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-0.2), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.2, market_delta=0.0, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=1.5, market_delta=0.1, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=9.5, market_delta=1.8, oil_delta=0.6, risk_delta=0.07), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-0.4, market_delta=0.0, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=0.0, market_delta=0.0, risk_delta=-0.01), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=5.6, market_delta=0.6, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.04), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=6.0, market_delta=0.5, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.08), |
| | }, |
| | "gulf": { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.2, market_delta=-0.7, oil_delta=-0.5), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-6.2, market_delta=-4.2, oil_delta=-2.8, risk_delta=-0.03), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=2.8, market_delta=2.1, oil_delta=3.2, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=7.5, market_delta=5.5, oil_delta=4.2, risk_delta=0.04), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-3.0, market_delta=-2.2, oil_delta=-1.6, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=0.0, market_delta=-0.2, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=4.5, market_delta=6.8, oil_delta=4.8, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=1.0, market_delta=0.6, oil_delta=0.3, risk_delta=0.03), |
| | }, |
| | "oversight": { |
| | "hold": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-1.5, market_delta=-0.5, oil_delta=-0.3, risk_delta=-0.03), |
| | "negotiate": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-3.5, market_delta=-1.2, oil_delta=-0.6, risk_delta=-0.03), |
| | "sanction": ActionImpact(tension_delta=1.0, market_delta=0.0, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.01), |
| | "strike": ActionImpact(tension_delta=3.0, market_delta=1.0, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.03), |
| | "defend": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-2.0, market_delta=-0.8, oil_delta=-0.4, risk_delta=-0.02), |
| | "intel_query": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-0.2, market_delta=0.0, risk_delta=-0.03), |
| | "mobilize": ActionImpact(tension_delta=1.5, market_delta=0.8, oil_delta=0.2, risk_delta=0.02), |
| | "deceive": ActionImpact(tension_delta=2.0, market_delta=0.0, oil_delta=0.0, risk_delta=0.04), |
| | "oversight_review": ActionImpact(tension_delta=-4.8, market_delta=-1.8, oil_delta=-0.7, risk_delta=-0.06), |
| | }, |
| | } |
| |
|
| | AGENT_ALLOWED_ACTIONS: dict[str, tuple[str, ...]] = { |
| | "us": ("hold", "negotiate", "sanction", "strike", "defend", "intel_query", "mobilize", "deceive"), |
| | "israel": ("hold", "negotiate", "sanction", "strike", "defend", "intel_query", "mobilize", "deceive"), |
| | "iran": ("hold", "negotiate", "sanction", "strike", "defend", "intel_query", "mobilize", "deceive"), |
| | "hezbollah": ("hold", "negotiate", "sanction", "strike", "defend", "intel_query", "mobilize", "deceive"), |
| | "gulf": ("hold", "negotiate", "sanction", "strike", "defend", "intel_query", "mobilize", "deceive"), |
| | "oversight": ("hold", "negotiate", "defend", "intel_query", "oversight_review"), |
| | } |
| |
|
| | AGENT_ACTION_ALIGNMENT: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = { |
| | "us": { |
| | "hold": 0.1, |
| | "negotiate": 0.8, |
| | "sanction": 0.55, |
| | "strike": -0.2, |
| | "defend": 0.7, |
| | "intel_query": 0.65, |
| | "mobilize": 0.45, |
| | "deceive": -0.15, |
| | "oversight_review": -0.4, |
| | }, |
| | "israel": { |
| | "hold": -0.2, |
| | "negotiate": 0.2, |
| | "sanction": 0.15, |
| | "strike": 0.72, |
| | "defend": 0.82, |
| | "intel_query": 0.5, |
| | "mobilize": 0.62, |
| | "deceive": 0.1, |
| | "oversight_review": -0.4, |
| | }, |
| | "iran": { |
| | "hold": 0.0, |
| | "negotiate": -0.15, |
| | "sanction": 0.05, |
| | "strike": 0.4, |
| | "defend": 0.22, |
| | "intel_query": 0.55, |
| | "mobilize": 0.68, |
| | "deceive": 0.82, |
| | "oversight_review": -0.4, |
| | }, |
| | "hezbollah": { |
| | "hold": 0.25, |
| | "negotiate": -0.4, |
| | "sanction": -0.5, |
| | "strike": 0.62, |
| | "defend": 0.25, |
| | "intel_query": 0.38, |
| | "mobilize": 0.48, |
| | "deceive": 0.86, |
| | "oversight_review": -0.4, |
| | }, |
| | "gulf": { |
| | "hold": 0.42, |
| | "negotiate": 0.88, |
| | "sanction": -0.2, |
| | "strike": -0.45, |
| | "defend": 0.68, |
| | "intel_query": 0.62, |
| | "mobilize": 0.1, |
| | "deceive": -0.15, |
| | "oversight_review": -0.4, |
| | }, |
| | "oversight": { |
| | "hold": 0.35, |
| | "negotiate": 0.65, |
| | "sanction": -0.8, |
| | "strike": -1.0, |
| | "defend": 0.55, |
| | "intel_query": 0.5, |
| | "mobilize": -0.55, |
| | "deceive": -0.95, |
| | "oversight_review": 0.95, |
| | }, |
| | } |
| |
|
| | AGENT_PREFERRED_COALITIONS: dict[str, tuple[str, ...]] = { |
| | "us": ("israel", "gulf"), |
| | "israel": ("us",), |
| | "iran": ("hezbollah",), |
| | "hezbollah": ("iran",), |
| | "gulf": ("us",), |
| | "oversight": (), |
| | } |
| |
|
| | AGENT_STATE_BASELINES: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = { |
| | "us": { |
| | "regional_access": 74.0, |
| | "shipping_security": 72.0, |
| | "domestic_support": 62.0, |
| | "force_posture": 76.0, |
| | }, |
| | "israel": { |
| | "homeland_security": 71.0, |
| | "northern_deterrence": 68.0, |
| | "reserve_endurance": 64.0, |
| | "us_resupply_confidence": 75.0, |
| | }, |
| | "iran": { |
| | "regime_stability": 70.0, |
| | "proxy_corridor": 72.0, |
| | "hormuz_leverage": 69.0, |
| | "deterrence_credibility": 68.0, |
| | }, |
| | "hezbollah": { |
| | "launch_survivability": 67.0, |
| | "logistics_depth": 70.0, |
| | "political_cover": 61.0, |
| | "resistance_credibility": 68.0, |
| | }, |
| | "gulf": { |
| | "shipping_continuity": 78.0, |
| | "infrastructure_security": 74.0, |
| | "investor_confidence": 73.0, |
| | "diplomatic_flexibility": 69.0, |
| | }, |
| | "oversight": { |
| | "runaway_risk": 36.0, |
| | "intervention_legitimacy": 68.0, |
| | "autonomy_balance": 72.0, |
| | "trace_clarity": 70.0, |
| | }, |
| | } |
| |
|
| | AGENT_REWARD_METRIC_CONFIGS: dict[str, dict[str, RewardMetricConfig]] = { |
| | "us": { |
| | "regional_access": RewardMetricConfig(target=82.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.29), |
| | "shipping_security": RewardMetricConfig(target=84.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.27), |
| | "domestic_support": RewardMetricConfig(target=68.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.20), |
| | "force_posture": RewardMetricConfig(target=80.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.14), |
| | }, |
| | "israel": { |
| | "homeland_security": RewardMetricConfig(target=84.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.31), |
| | "northern_deterrence": RewardMetricConfig(target=78.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.28), |
| | "us_resupply_confidence": RewardMetricConfig(target=80.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.19), |
| | "reserve_endurance": RewardMetricConfig(target=68.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.12), |
| | }, |
| | "iran": { |
| | "regime_stability": RewardMetricConfig(target=78.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.30), |
| | "proxy_corridor": RewardMetricConfig(target=76.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.24), |
| | "hormuz_leverage": RewardMetricConfig(target=72.0, tolerance=14.0, weight=0.23), |
| | "deterrence_credibility": RewardMetricConfig(target=74.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.13), |
| | }, |
| | "hezbollah": { |
| | "launch_survivability": RewardMetricConfig(target=72.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.27), |
| | "logistics_depth": RewardMetricConfig(target=70.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.22), |
| | "resistance_credibility": RewardMetricConfig(target=74.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.24), |
| | "political_cover": RewardMetricConfig(target=60.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.17), |
| | }, |
| | "gulf": { |
| | "shipping_continuity": RewardMetricConfig(target=86.0, tolerance=14.0, weight=0.30), |
| | "investor_confidence": RewardMetricConfig(target=82.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.25), |
| | "infrastructure_security": RewardMetricConfig(target=82.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.20), |
| | "diplomatic_flexibility": RewardMetricConfig(target=74.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.15), |
| | }, |
| | "oversight": { |
| | "runaway_risk": RewardMetricConfig(target=18.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.32), |
| | "autonomy_balance": RewardMetricConfig(target=76.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.22), |
| | "intervention_legitimacy": RewardMetricConfig(target=74.0, tolerance=18.0, weight=0.20), |
| | "trace_clarity": RewardMetricConfig(target=78.0, tolerance=16.0, weight=0.16), |
| | }, |
| | } |
| |
|
| | AGENT_STATE_ACTION_EFFECTS: dict[str, dict[str, dict[str, float]]] = { |
| | "us": { |
| | "hold": {"domestic_support": 0.8, "force_posture": 0.6}, |
| | "negotiate": {"regional_access": 4.2, "shipping_security": 1.6, "domestic_support": 1.4}, |
| | "sanction": {"regional_access": 1.0, "domestic_support": 0.5, "shipping_security": -1.8}, |
| | "strike": {"regional_access": -2.2, "shipping_security": -3.1, "domestic_support": -4.0, "force_posture": -1.2}, |
| | "defend": {"shipping_security": 3.4, "force_posture": 4.2, "domestic_support": 0.7}, |
| | "intel_query": {"regional_access": 0.5, "force_posture": 1.2}, |
| | "mobilize": {"regional_access": 1.1, "shipping_security": -1.2, "domestic_support": -2.4, "force_posture": 3.0}, |
| | "deceive": {"regional_access": -1.1, "domestic_support": -2.2}, |
| | }, |
| | "israel": { |
| | "hold": {"reserve_endurance": 1.0}, |
| | "negotiate": {"reserve_endurance": 1.6, "us_resupply_confidence": 1.0}, |
| | "sanction": {"northern_deterrence": 0.6, "us_resupply_confidence": -0.4}, |
| | "strike": {"homeland_security": 1.3, "northern_deterrence": 4.3, "reserve_endurance": -2.4, "us_resupply_confidence": -0.5}, |
| | "defend": {"homeland_security": 4.4, "northern_deterrence": 0.8, "reserve_endurance": -0.5}, |
| | "intel_query": {"homeland_security": 1.1, "northern_deterrence": 1.3, "us_resupply_confidence": 0.4}, |
| | "mobilize": {"homeland_security": 2.0, "northern_deterrence": 2.6, "reserve_endurance": -3.8, "us_resupply_confidence": -0.3}, |
| | "deceive": {"northern_deterrence": 1.7, "us_resupply_confidence": -0.9}, |
| | }, |
| | "iran": { |
| | "hold": {"regime_stability": 0.7}, |
| | "negotiate": {"regime_stability": 1.6, "hormuz_leverage": -2.2, "deterrence_credibility": -0.8}, |
| | "sanction": {"regime_stability": -0.8, "proxy_corridor": -0.6}, |
| | "strike": {"regime_stability": -2.8, "proxy_corridor": -1.0, "hormuz_leverage": 1.6, "deterrence_credibility": 4.0}, |
| | "defend": {"regime_stability": 2.8, "proxy_corridor": 1.0}, |
| | "intel_query": {"regime_stability": 0.9, "proxy_corridor": 1.3, "deterrence_credibility": 0.7}, |
| | "mobilize": {"regime_stability": -1.3, "proxy_corridor": 3.7, "hormuz_leverage": 2.9, "deterrence_credibility": 2.3}, |
| | "deceive": {"regime_stability": 0.5, "proxy_corridor": 1.6, "deterrence_credibility": 2.7}, |
| | }, |
| | "hezbollah": { |
| | "hold": {"launch_survivability": 0.5, "political_cover": 0.8}, |
| | "negotiate": {"launch_survivability": 0.8, "political_cover": 2.0, "resistance_credibility": -2.1}, |
| | "sanction": {"political_cover": -1.0, "logistics_depth": -0.6}, |
| | "strike": {"launch_survivability": -2.8, "logistics_depth": -1.1, "political_cover": -2.3, "resistance_credibility": 4.2}, |
| | "defend": {"launch_survivability": 3.3, "logistics_depth": 1.0}, |
| | "intel_query": {"launch_survivability": 0.8, "logistics_depth": 1.6}, |
| | "mobilize": {"launch_survivability": -0.8, "logistics_depth": -0.8, "political_cover": -1.9, "resistance_credibility": 2.8}, |
| | "deceive": {"launch_survivability": 2.1, "political_cover": 0.7, "resistance_credibility": 2.4}, |
| | }, |
| | "gulf": { |
| | "hold": {"investor_confidence": 0.6, "diplomatic_flexibility": 0.8}, |
| | "negotiate": {"shipping_continuity": 1.3, "investor_confidence": 2.3, "diplomatic_flexibility": 4.0}, |
| | "sanction": {"infrastructure_security": 0.5, "investor_confidence": -0.8, "diplomatic_flexibility": -1.7}, |
| | "strike": {"shipping_continuity": -3.0, "infrastructure_security": -2.1, "investor_confidence": -4.0, "diplomatic_flexibility": -2.5}, |
| | "defend": {"shipping_continuity": 2.2, "infrastructure_security": 4.1}, |
| | "intel_query": {"shipping_continuity": 1.1, "infrastructure_security": 0.9, "diplomatic_flexibility": 0.8}, |
| | "mobilize": {"infrastructure_security": 2.7, "investor_confidence": -2.6, "diplomatic_flexibility": -1.4}, |
| | "deceive": {"investor_confidence": -1.3, "diplomatic_flexibility": -2.0}, |
| | }, |
| | "oversight": { |
| | "hold": {"autonomy_balance": 0.6, "trace_clarity": 0.5}, |
| | "negotiate": {"runaway_risk": -2.4, "intervention_legitimacy": 2.1, "autonomy_balance": 0.7}, |
| | "sanction": {"runaway_risk": 1.2, "intervention_legitimacy": -2.5, "autonomy_balance": -1.8}, |
| | "strike": {"runaway_risk": 3.2, "intervention_legitimacy": -3.0, "autonomy_balance": -3.1}, |
| | "defend": {"runaway_risk": -1.8, "trace_clarity": 1.1}, |
| | "intel_query": {"runaway_risk": -0.9, "intervention_legitimacy": 0.8, "trace_clarity": 2.5}, |
| | "mobilize": {"runaway_risk": 2.0, "autonomy_balance": -2.2}, |
| | "deceive": {"intervention_legitimacy": -2.7, "trace_clarity": -3.1}, |
| | "oversight_review": { |
| | "runaway_risk": -4.0, |
| | "intervention_legitimacy": 3.6, |
| | "autonomy_balance": 1.9, |
| | "trace_clarity": 2.2, |
| | }, |
| | }, |
| | } |
| |
|
