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Update default_scenario.json

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  1. default_scenario.json +1003 -4
default_scenario.json CHANGED
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
1
- DEFAULT_SCENARIO = {
2
  "name": "5Y Historic-Inspired + Post-2025 News Cycle",
3
  "startDay": 0,
4
  "basePrice": 100.0,
@@ -348,7 +348,1006 @@ DEFAULT_SCENARIO = {
348
  "shockPct": 1.4,
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  "news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
350
  },
351
-
352
- ... (remaining weekly entries continue every 7 days through day 1813; paste from the file if you want the full uninterrupted JSON)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
353
  ]
354
- }
 
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+ {
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  "name": "5Y Historic-Inspired + Post-2025 News Cycle",
3
  "startDay": 0,
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  "basePrice": 100.0,
 
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  "shockPct": 1.4,
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  "news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
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  },
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+ {
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+ "day": 462,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 476,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 483,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ "shockPct": -0.3,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
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+ "volatility": 1.15
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 497,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ {
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+ "day": 532,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 539,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 546,
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+ "shockPct": -2.8,
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+ "news": "Credit event in private markets; refinancing wall sparks risk-off week.",
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+ "volatility": 1.7
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 553,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 560,
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+ "shockPct": -0.2,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
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+ "volatility": 0.85
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+ {
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+ "day": 567,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ {
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 581,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 588,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 595,
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+ "shockPct": -0.3,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 602,
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+ "shockPct": 2.4,
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+ "news": "Orderly restructuring + backstop facility reduces contagion fears.",
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+ "volatility": 1.2
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 609,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 616,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 623,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 630,
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+ "shockPct": -0.2,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
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+ "volatility": 0.95
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 637,
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+ "news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 644,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ {
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+ "news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ "day": 658,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 665,
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+ "shockPct": 0.3,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "shockPct": -0.2,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
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+ "volatility": 1.05
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 707,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 714,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 721,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 728,
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+ "news": "Productivity wave narrative: AI capex cycle accelerates; earnings revisions up.",
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+ "volatility": 1.1
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 735,
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+ "shockPct": 0.3,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 742,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 770,
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+ "shockPct": 0.2,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
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+ "volatility": 1.15
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+ },
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+ "day": 777,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ "news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ },
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+ "news": "AI overbuild concerns echo dot-com; guidance cuts hit high-multiple names.",
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+ "volatility": 1.9
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 833,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ "volatility": 0.85
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ "news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ "day": 868,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 875,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 882,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 889,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ "news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 910,
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+ "news": "Breakthrough efficiency claims validated; capex shifts from hype to ROI.",
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+ "volatility": 1.2
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ "news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 938,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 945,
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+ "shockPct": 0.2,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 952,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ "day": 966,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 973,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
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+ "volatility": 1.05
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 987,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 994,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1001,
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+ "shockPct": 1.4,
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+ "news": "Quarterly rebound: earnings breadth improves; dip-buyers return."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1008,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ "day": 1015,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1022,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1029,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1036,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ "day": 1043,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1050,
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+ "shockPct": -0.2,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
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+ "volatility": 1.15
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1057,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1064,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1071,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1078,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1085,
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+ "shockPct": 0.2,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1092,
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+ "shockPct": -2.6,
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+ "news": "Unexpected inflation rebound; central bank signals 'higher for longer'.",
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+ "volatility": 1.8
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1099,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1106,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1113,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1120,
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+ "shockPct": -0.3,
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+ "news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
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+ "volatility": 0.85
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+ },
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+ {
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+ "day": 1127,
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+ "shockPct": 0.0,
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+ "news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
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+ },
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848
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
849
+ "news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
850
+ },
851
+ {
852
+ "day": 1141,
853
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
854
+ "news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
855
+ },
856
+ {
857
+ "day": 1148,
858
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
859
+ "news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
860
+ },
861
+ {
862
+ "day": 1155,
863
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
864
+ "news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
865
+ },
866
+ {
867
+ "day": 1162,
868
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
869
+ "news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
870
+ },
871
+ {
872
+ "day": 1169,
873
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
874
+ "news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
875
+ },
876
+ {
877
+ "day": 1176,
878
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
879
+ "news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
880
+ },
881
+ {
882
+ "day": 1183,
883
+ "shockPct": 2.3,
884
+ "news": "Inflation cools again; soft-landing confidence returns.",
885
+ "volatility": 1.2
886
+ },
887
+ {
888
+ "day": 1190,
889
+ "shockPct": 0.3,
890
+ "news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
891
+ "volatility": 0.95
892
+ },
893
+ {
894
+ "day": 1197,
895
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
896
+ "news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
897
+ },
898
+ {
899
+ "day": 1204,
900
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
901
+ "news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
902
+ },
903
+ {
904
+ "day": 1211,
905
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
906
+ "news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
907
+ },
908
+ {
909
+ "day": 1218,
910
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
911
+ "news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
912
+ },
913
+ {
914
+ "day": 1225,
915
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
916
+ "news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
917
+ },
918
+ {
919
+ "day": 1232,
920
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
921
+ "news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
922
+ },
923
+ {
924
+ "day": 1239,
925
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
926
+ "news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
927
+ },
928
+ {
929
+ "day": 1246,
930
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
931
+ "news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
932
+ },
933
+ {
934
+ "day": 1253,
935
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
936
+ "news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
937
+ },
938
+ {
939
+ "day": 1260,
940
+ "shockPct": 0.2,
941
+ "news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
942
+ "volatility": 1.05
943
+ },
944
+ {
945
+ "day": 1267,
946
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
947
+ "news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
948
+ },
949
+ {
950
+ "day": 1274,
951
+ "shockPct": -2.9,
952
+ "news": "Emerging-market FX shock triggers forced de-risking; correlations spike.",
953
+ "volatility": 1.8
954
+ },
955
+ {
956
+ "day": 1281,
957
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
958
+ "news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
959
+ },
960
+ {
961
+ "day": 1288,
962
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
963
+ "news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
964
+ },
965
+ {
966
+ "day": 1295,
967
+ "shockPct": 0.2,
968
+ "news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
969
+ },
970
+ {
971
+ "day": 1302,
972
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
973
+ "news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
974
+ },
975
+ {
976
+ "day": 1309,
977
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
978
+ "news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
979
+ },
980
+ {
981
+ "day": 1316,
982
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
983
+ "news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
984
+ },
985
+ {
986
+ "day": 1323,
987
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
988
+ "news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
989
+ },
990
+ {
991
+ "day": 1330,
992
+ "shockPct": 0.2,
993
+ "news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
994
+ "volatility": 1.15
995
+ },
996
+ {
997
+ "day": 1337,
998
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
999
+ "news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1000
+ },
1001
+ {
1002
+ "day": 1344,
1003
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1004
+ "news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1005
+ },
1006
+ {
1007
+ "day": 1351,
1008
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1009
+ "news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1010
+ },
1011
+ {
1012
+ "day": 1358,
1013
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1014
+ "news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1015
+ },
1016
+ {
1017
+ "day": 1365,
1018
+ "shockPct": 2.1,
1019
+ "news": "IMF-style stabilization package announced; carry trade rebuild begins.",
1020
+ "volatility": 1.3
1021
+ },
1022
+ {
1023
+ "day": 1372,
1024
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1025
+ "news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1026
+ },
1027
+ {
1028
+ "day": 1379,
1029
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1030
+ "news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1031
+ },
1032
+ {
1033
+ "day": 1386,
1034
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1035
+ "news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1036
+ },
1037
+ {
1038
+ "day": 1393,
1039
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1040
+ "news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1041
+ },
1042
+ {
1043
+ "day": 1400,
1044
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
1045
+ "news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
1046
+ "volatility": 0.85
1047
+ },
1048
+ {
1049
+ "day": 1407,
1050
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1051
+ "news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1052
+ },
1053
+ {
1054
+ "day": 1414,
1055
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1056
+ "news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1057
+ },
1058
+ {
1059
+ "day": 1421,
1060
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1061
+ "news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1062
+ },
1063
+ {
1064
+ "day": 1428,
1065
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1066
+ "news": "Weekly tape: rate-cut speculation; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1067
+ },
1068
+ {
1069
+ "day": 1435,
1070
+ "shockPct": 0.3,
1071
+ "news": "Macro watch: rate-cut speculation; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1072
+ },
1073
+ {
1074
+ "day": 1442,
1075
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1076
+ "news": "Positioning check: rate-cut speculation; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1077
+ },
1078
+ {
1079
+ "day": 1449,
1080
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1081
+ "news": "Narrative shift: rate-cut speculation; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1082
+ },
1083
+ {
1084
+ "day": 1456,
1085
+ "shockPct": -2.4,
1086
+ "news": "Climate event disrupts supply chains; insurers reprice catastrophe risk.",
1087
+ "volatility": 1.6
1088
+ },
1089
+ {
1090
+ "day": 1463,
1091
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1092
+ "news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1093
+ },
1094
+ {
1095
+ "day": 1470,
1096
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
1097
+ "news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
1098
+ "volatility": 0.95
1099
+ },
1100
+ {
1101
+ "day": 1477,
1102
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1103
+ "news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1104
+ },
1105
+ {
1106
+ "day": 1484,
1107
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1108
+ "news": "Weekly tape: earnings resilience; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1109
+ },
1110
+ {
1111
+ "day": 1491,
1112
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1113
+ "news": "Macro watch: earnings resilience; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1114
+ },
1115
+ {
1116
+ "day": 1498,
1117
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1118
+ "news": "Positioning check: earnings resilience; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1119
+ },
1120
+ {
1121
+ "day": 1505,
1122
+ "shockPct": 0.3,
1123
+ "news": "Narrative shift: earnings resilience; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1124
+ },
1125
+ {
1126
+ "day": 1512,
1127
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1128
+ "news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1129
+ },
1130
+ {
1131
+ "day": 1519,
1132
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1133
+ "news": "Macro watch: AI capex cycle; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1134
+ },
1135
+ {
1136
+ "day": 1526,
1137
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1138
+ "news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1139
+ },
1140
+ {
1141
+ "day": 1533,
1142
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1143
+ "news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1144
+ },
1145
+ {
1146
+ "day": 1540,
1147
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
1148
+ "news": "Weekly tape: AI capex cycle; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
1149
+ "volatility": 1.05
1150
+ },
1151
+ {
1152
+ "day": 1547,
1153
+ "shockPct": 2.0,
1154
+ "news": "Supply normalization + rebuilding spend support cyclicals.",
1155
+ "volatility": 1.2
1156
+ },
1157
+ {
1158
+ "day": 1554,
1159
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1160
+ "news": "Positioning check: AI capex cycle; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1161
+ },
1162
+ {
1163
+ "day": 1561,
1164
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1165
+ "news": "Narrative shift: AI capex cycle; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1166
+ },
1167
+ {
1168
+ "day": 1568,
1169
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1170
+ "news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1171
+ },
1172
+ {
1173
+ "day": 1575,
1174
+ "shockPct": 0.2,
1175
+ "news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1176
+ },
1177
+ {
1178
+ "day": 1582,
1179
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1180
+ "news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1181
+ },
1182
+ {
1183
+ "day": 1589,
1184
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1185
+ "news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1186
+ },
1187
+ {
1188
+ "day": 1596,
1189
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1190
+ "news": "Weekly tape: energy transition; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1191
+ },
1192
+ {
1193
+ "day": 1603,
1194
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1195
+ "news": "Macro watch: energy transition; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1196
+ },
1197
+ {
1198
+ "day": 1610,
1199
+ "shockPct": 0.2,
1200
+ "news": "Positioning check: energy transition; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
1201
+ "volatility": 1.15
1202
+ },
1203
+ {
1204
+ "day": 1617,
1205
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1206
+ "news": "Narrative shift: energy transition; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1207
+ },
1208
+ {
1209
+ "day": 1624,
1210
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1211
+ "news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1212
+ },
1213
+ {
1214
+ "day": 1631,
1215
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1216
+ "news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1217
+ },
1218
+ {
1219
+ "day": 1638,
1220
+ "shockPct": -2.7,
1221
+ "news": "Antitrust wave targets platform fees; headline risk rises.",
1222
+ "volatility": 1.7
1223
+ },
1224
+ {
1225
+ "day": 1645,
1226
+ "shockPct": -0.2,
1227
+ "news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1228
+ },
1229
+ {
1230
+ "day": 1652,
1231
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1232
+ "news": "Weekly tape: trade friction; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1233
+ },
1234
+ {
1235
+ "day": 1659,
1236
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1237
+ "news": "Macro watch: trade friction; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1238
+ },
1239
+ {
1240
+ "day": 1666,
1241
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1242
+ "news": "Positioning check: trade friction; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1243
+ },
1244
+ {
1245
+ "day": 1673,
1246
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1247
+ "news": "Narrative shift: trade friction; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1248
+ },
1249
+ {
1250
+ "day": 1680,
1251
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
1252
+ "news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals.",
1253
+ "volatility": 0.85
1254
+ },
1255
+ {
1256
+ "day": 1687,
1257
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1258
+ "news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1259
+ },
1260
+ {
1261
+ "day": 1694,
1262
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1263
+ "news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1264
+ },
1265
+ {
1266
+ "day": 1701,
1267
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1268
+ "news": "Narrative shift: credit tightening; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1269
+ },
1270
+ {
1271
+ "day": 1708,
1272
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1273
+ "news": "Weekly tape: credit tightening; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1274
+ },
1275
+ {
1276
+ "day": 1715,
1277
+ "shockPct": -0.3,
1278
+ "news": "Macro watch: credit tightening; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1279
+ },
1280
+ {
1281
+ "day": 1722,
1282
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1283
+ "news": "Positioning check: credit tightening; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1284
+ },
1285
+ {
1286
+ "day": 1729,
1287
+ "shockPct": 2.2,
1288
+ "news": "Settlement framework reduces uncertainty; buybacks resume.",
1289
+ "volatility": 1.2
1290
+ },
1291
+ {
1292
+ "day": 1736,
1293
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1294
+ "news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1295
+ },
1296
+ {
1297
+ "day": 1743,
1298
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1299
+ "news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1300
+ },
1301
+ {
1302
+ "day": 1750,
1303
+ "shockPct": -0.2,
1304
+ "news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously.",
1305
+ "volatility": 0.95
1306
+ },
1307
+ {
1308
+ "day": 1757,
1309
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1310
+ "news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1311
+ },
1312
+ {
1313
+ "day": 1764,
1314
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1315
+ "news": "Weekly tape: reacceleration hopes; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1316
+ },
1317
+ {
1318
+ "day": 1771,
1319
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1320
+ "news": "Macro watch: reacceleration hopes; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1321
+ },
1322
+ {
1323
+ "day": 1778,
1324
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1325
+ "news": "Positioning check: reacceleration hopes; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1326
+ },
1327
+ {
1328
+ "day": 1785,
1329
+ "shockPct": 0.2,
1330
+ "news": "Narrative shift: reacceleration hopes; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1331
+ },
1332
+ {
1333
+ "day": 1792,
1334
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1335
+ "news": "Weekly tape: soft-landing optimism; flows rotate between defensives and cyclicals."
1336
+ },
1337
+ {
1338
+ "day": 1799,
1339
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1340
+ "news": "Macro watch: soft-landing optimism; analysts debate whether this resembles past late-cycle rallies."
1341
+ },
1342
+ {
1343
+ "day": 1806,
1344
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1345
+ "news": "Positioning check: soft-landing optimism; volatility sellers return cautiously."
1346
+ },
1347
+ {
1348
+ "day": 1813,
1349
+ "shockPct": 0.0,
1350
+ "news": "Narrative shift: soft-landing optimism; breadth and liquidity indicators in focus."
1351
+ }
1352
  ]
1353
+ }