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Blend a decaying market-odds prior into the team xG rating
At GW1 a team's rating is 94.7% last-four-seasons, because the weighting is a per-match rate and one gameweek is worth one match-equivalent out of ~18.8. That is correct for results - a backtest sweeping how hard to weight the current season finds the existing scheme already optimal, and every more reactive variant scores worse. But it leaves the model blind to everything that happened before a ball was kicked: new managers, transfers, preseason. Betting markets price exactly that. Two free feeds, because neither is sufficient alone: football-data.co.uk Pinnacle CLOSING 1X2, over/under and Asian handicap for every completed match, ~20 seasons, no key. Sharp, but published after each round. the-odds-api.com Live prices for upcoming fixtures. Free tier is 500 credits/month; one h2h,totals call for soccer_epl in one region costs 2 and returns every upcoming match, so …540e846