Website data through 2026-11-04

site/index.json

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-{"generated_at":"2026-11-04T13:24:51+00:00","results":"Chennzi/agentic-forecasting-results","github":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks","taxonomy":{"version":1,"domains":[{"id":"energy","name":"Energy","leaves":[{"id":"electricity-demand","name":"Electricity demand","examples":["ERCOT daily peak load","PJM daily load","CAISO daily load"]},{"id":"gas-demand","name":"Gas demand","examples":["GB NTS gas demand","AEMO Victoria gas demand"]},{"id":"renewable-generation","name":"Renewable generation","examples":["ERCOT daily wind output","CAISO daily solar output"]},{"id":"fuel-inventories","name":"Fuel inventories","examples":["EIA weekly natural gas storage","EIA weekly crude oil inventories"]},{"id":"energy-prices","name":"Energy prices","examples":["Henry Hub natural gas spot","US retail gasoline price"]}]},{"id":"health","name":"Public health","leaves":[{"id":"respiratory-illness","name":"Respiratory illness","examples":["CDC ILINet","influenza hospital admissions","COVID-19 hospital admissions"]},{"id":"other-infectious-disease","name":"Other infectious disease","examples":["Dengue cases","norovirus outbreaks"]},{"id":"health-care-use","name":"Health-care use","examples":["Emergency department visits"]}]},{"id":"economy","name":"Economy and labor","leaves":[{"id":"labor-market","name":"Labor market","examples":["US initial jobless claims"]},{"id":"consumer-prices","name":"Consumer prices","examples":["Food price indices","used car prices"]},{"id":"economic-activity","name":"Economic activity","examples":["Retail foot traffic","freight volumes"]},{"id":"bank-liquidity","name":"Bank liquidity","examples":["Norges Bank structural liquidity","ECB excess liquidity"]},{"id":"technology-adoption","name":"Technology adoption","examples":["Vercel AI Gateway spend shares by lab"]}]},{"id":"markets","name":"Financial markets","leaves":[{"id":"commodities","name":"Commodities","examples":["Corn futures","crude oil futures"]},{"id":"currencies","name":"Currencies","examples":["USD/JPY"]},{"id":"equities","name":"Equities and volatility","examples":["S&P 500 index","VIX"]}]},{"id":"environment","name":"Environment","leaves":[{"id":"weather","name":"Weather","examples":["Daily maximum air temperature","daily precipitation"]},{"id":"air-quality","name":"Air quality","examples":["PM2.5 concentration","ozone"]},{"id":"hydrology","name":"Hydrology","examples":["River discharge","reservoir storage"]},{"id":"natural-hazards","name":"Natural hazards","examples":["Wildfire burned area"]}]},{"id":"space","name":"Space","leaves":[{"id":"space-weather","name":"Space weather","examples":["Planetary Kp index","solar wind speed"]}]},{"id":"mobility","name":"Transport and mobility","leaves":[{"id":"air-travel","name":"Air travel","examples":["TSA checkpoint throughput"]},{"id":"ground-transport","name":"Ground transport","examples":["Transit ridership","road traffic counts"]}]},{"id":"attention","name":"Online attention","leaves":[{"id":"search-and-page-views","name":"Search and page views","examples":["Wikipedia page views","Google Trends interest"]},{"id":"media-and-social","name":"Media and social activity","examples":["News article volume","GitHub stars"]}]}],"facets":{"driver":{"weather":"Weather and climate","epidemic":"Disease transmission","economic":"Economic conditions and policy","behavioral":"Human behavior and events","market":"Market expectations","solar":"Solar activity"},"tradable":{"true":"Tradable price (control)","false":"Not tradable"}}},"systems":[{"id":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","kind":"agent","label":"Claude Code \u00b7 Sonnet 5","description":"Anthropic Claude Code 2.1.227 running claude-sonnet-5 with its default tools in bypassPermissions mode. Live runs add the open internet; the agent receives no data.","sort":0},{"id":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-continual","kind":"agent","label":"Claude Code \u00b7 Sonnet 5 \u00b7 continual","description":"The same Claude Code agent, continuing on every run day from a snapshot of the sandbox and native session of its previous run day (ALE --continue-from). Its earlier submissions are in /home/user/history/, and it is asked to compare them with the values published since and improve how it forecasts.","sort":0},{"id":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","kind":"agent","label":"Codex \u00b7 GPT-6.1 Sol","description":"OpenAI Codex CLI 0.146.0 running gpt-6.1-sol with its default settings: no approval prompts, no command sandbox, and its built-in web search. Live runs add the open internet; the agent receives no data.","sort":0},{"id":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual","kind":"agent","label":"Codex \u00b7 GPT-6.1 Sol \u00b7 continual","description":"The same Codex agent, continuing on every run day from a snapshot of the sandbox and native session of its previous run day (ALE --continue-from). Its earlier submissions are in /home/user/history/, and it is asked to compare them with the values published since and improve how it forecasts.","sort":0},{"id":"eccc-official","kind":"expert","label":"ECCC official","description":"ECCC's 06:00 AQHI forecast for the community on the run date, the first issue after the cutoff, which the agents cannot see. Its \"Today\" period gives the run date and its \"Tomorrow\" period the day after; each is ECCC's forecast maximum for 06:00 to 18:00, a whole number, with 10+ counted as 11. It is recorded the next day.","sort":1},{"id":"ercot-official","kind":"expert","label":"ERCOT official","description":"The forecast model ERCOT flags as in use, first version posted after the cutoff (the 09:30 version), which the agents cannot see; it is recorded the next day; the daily maximum of its hourly system total.","sort":1},{"id":"nws-official","kind":"expert","label":"NWS official","description":"The first river forecast the NWS issues for the gauge after the cutoff, normally its evening forecast of the run date, which the agents cannot see; the mean of its four six-hourly stage values on each date. It is recorded the next day.","sort":1},{"id":"chronos-2","kind":"tsfm","label":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 curated","description":"Curated TSFM: Amazon Chronos-2, zero-shot, given the run day's curated input: the target history plus the covariates the task's author chose, for the past and the forecast window, without the earlier expert forecast.","sort":2},{"id":"chronos-2-expert","kind":"tsfm","label":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 curated + expert","description":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 curated, plus the expert forecast's latest version before each snapshot as one more covariate. The version the run is compared with comes after the cutoff and is not included. The pair isolates what the earlier expert forecast adds.","sort":2},{"id":"chronos-2-univariate","kind":"tsfm","label":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 history only","description":"Amazon Chronos-2, zero-shot, given only the target history.","sort":2},{"id":"timesfm-3","kind":"tsfm","label":"TimesFM-3 \u00b7 curated","description":"Curated TSFM: Google TimesFM 3.0 (331M), zero-shot, given the run day's curated input with every known covariate for the past and the forecast window, without the earlier expert forecast. Weights under Google's non-commercial license.","sort":2},{"id":"timesfm-3-expert","kind":"tsfm","label":"TimesFM-3 \u00b7 curated + expert","description":"TimesFM-3 \u00b7 curated, plus the expert forecast's latest version before each snapshot as one more covariate. The version the run is compared with comes after the cutoff and is not included. The pair isolates what the earlier expert forecast adds.","sort":2},{"id":"seasonal-naive","kind":"reference","label":"Seasonal naive","description":"The value on the same weekday in the latest observed week. It is the denominator of every scaled score, so its own scaled score is 1.","sort":3}],"tasks":[{"id":"ercot_peak_load","title":"ERCOT daily peak load","question":"How high will electricity demand on the Texas grid peak on each of the next seven days?","summary":"The highest hourly electricity demand of each day on the ERCOT grid, which serves about 90% of Texas load. Weather drives it, and grid notices and news add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"energy/electricity-demand","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Electricity demand","region":"Texas (ERCOT grid)","unit":"MW","schedule":{"snapshot":"07:05","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-10-16","timezone":"America/Chicago","cutoff":"09:25"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"ERCOT official","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-10-24","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":11,"next_run":"2026-11-05T07:05:00-06:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[{"system":"chronos-2","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.5224946015489237,"scaled_mae":0.669020535181685,"crps":1829.9703801169599,"mae":2343.158684210528,"coverage80":0.6578947368421053},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.34668360122238645,"scaled_mae":0.4327517750564975,"crps":1214.2148830409365,"mae":1515.657631578948,"coverage80":0.5263157894736842},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.6669030227861376,"scaled_mae":0.8510544696289652,"crps":2335.7423684210535,"mae":2980.7092105263177,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.3550507631348939,"scaled_mae":0.45402773293556803,"crps":1243.5197953216382,"mae":1590.1739473684222,"coverage80":0.868421052631579},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.3191082697951465,"scaled_mae":0.3879699418732254,"crps":1117.6358187134508,"mae":1358.8150000000007,"coverage80":0.9736842105263158},{"system":"ercot-official","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.36915494785375913,"scaled_mae":0.36915494785375913,"crps":1292.917894736843,"mae":1292.917894736843,"coverage80":null},{"system":"seasonal-naive","n":38,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":3502.371842105264,"mae":3502.371842105264,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.46709830732334884,"scaled_mae":0.6185533818322968,"crps":1635.9519590643279,"mae":2166.403947368422,"coverage80":0.6578947368421053},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.29006041912265695,"scaled_mae":0.39166488153554285,"crps":1015.8994444444451,"mae":1371.7560526315792,"coverage80":0.7631578947368421}],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-08","value":86278.55},{"date":"2026-09-09","value":85931.94},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":84538.73},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":85799.88},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":86491.57},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":86049.84},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":86157.25},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":86129.24},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":86167.87},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":82811.92},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":83098.65},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":82789.85},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":83005.03},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":85925.71},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":85311.93},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":85059.79},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":83426.9},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":81227.32},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":78487.51},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":81585.99},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":82504.9},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":80912.32},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":77838.24},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":66732.03},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":66602.18},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":62432.53},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":60263.42},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":69952.07},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":72381.47},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":73189.81},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":75120.38},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":73917.77},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":71643.27},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":73217.47},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":76145.36},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":81169.2},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":79009.83},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":74982.12},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":54532.28},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":49594.28},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":52374.04},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":56965.61},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":60239.11},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":63001.08},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":63381.26},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":63943.77},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":62087.1},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":58287.79},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":60005.82},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":61064.31},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":63406.9},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":59702.77},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":59794.65},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":62940.51},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":65881.05},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":59935.2}]},{"id":"gb_gas_demand","title":"GB daily gas demand","question":"How much gas will Great Britain's National Transmission System deliver tomorrow?","summary":"The gas delivered through Great Britain's National Transmission System (NTS) in a gas day, 05:00 to 05:00 UK time: to the regional networks that supply homes and businesses, to power stations and large industry, into storage and out through the interconnectors. Weather drives it, mostly through heating, and National Gas's system notices, the power market and interconnector flows add information that history alone does not contain. It is compared with National Gas's day-ahead demand forecast.","taxonomy":"energy/gas-demand","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Gas demand","region":"Great Britain (National Transmission System)","unit":"mcm per gas day","schedule":{"snapshot":"13:00","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"Europe/London","cutoff":"14:45"},"horizons":[1],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"National Gas forecast","baseline_visible":true,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T13:00:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":112.591},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":109.413},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":114.034},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":112.39},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":117.964},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":113.651},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":122.036},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":115.017},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":104.492},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":104.589},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":110.317},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":105.751},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":136.802},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":145.131},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":133.908},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":142.206},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":136.284},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":114.136},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":111.17},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":145.505},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":118.155},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":141.194},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":160.678},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":160.986},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":162.148},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":163.653},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":159.534},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":165.3},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":162.202},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":146.384},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":145.421},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":161.834},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":159.093},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":170.752},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":165.326},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":158.495},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":161.113},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":161.641},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":159.488},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":163.916},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":176.958},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":173.54},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":176.708},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":169.681},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":169.002},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":184.1},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":162.785},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":168.825},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":164.0},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":188.736},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":199.084},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":191.282},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":189.899},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":199.001},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":216.371},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":227.612}]},{"id":"kp_index_daily_max","title":"Planetary Kp index, daily maximum","question":"How high will the planetary Kp index of geomagnetic activity reach tomorrow and the day after (UTC)?","summary":"The highest of the day's eight three-hourly values of the planetary K index (Kp), the 0 to 9 scale of geomagnetic disturbance behind NOAA's geomagnetic storm warnings, as NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) estimates it in near real time. Solar wind streams and coronal mass ejections drive it, and solar images, solar wind measurements and forecasters' discussions add information that history alone does not contain. It is compared with SWPC's 3-day forecast.","taxonomy":"space/space-weather","driver":"solar","tradable":false,"domain":"Space weather","region":"Global (planetary index)","unit":"Kp","schedule":{"snapshot":"10:15","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"12:20"},"horizons":[1,2],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"SWPC 3-day forecast","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T10:15:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":3.67},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":1.67},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":1.67},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":1.67},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":1.33},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":1.33},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":5.67},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":5.33},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":7.0},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":3.67},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":2.33},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":1.0},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":4.67},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":2.33},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":2.33},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":6.0},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":4.67},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":2.0}]},{"id":"mississippi_st_louis_stage","title":"Mississippi River stage at St. Louis","question":"How high will the Mississippi River be at St. Louis, on average, on each of the next 13 days?","summary":"The daily mean water level of the Mississippi at the St. Louis gauge, just below the mouth of the Missouri River. Barge traffic depends on it: below about 1 ft, barges may have to carry lighter loads. Rain and snowmelt across the upper Mississippi and Missouri basins drive it days to weeks later, and river forecasts, reservoir releases and navigation notices add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"environment/hydrology","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Hydrology","region":"St. Louis, Missouri (Mississippi River)","unit":"ft","schedule":{"snapshot":"16:50","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-10-29","timezone":"America/Chicago","cutoff":"18:40"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"NWS 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The index combines ozone, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter into a health-risk scale from 1 to 10+. Weather drives it, and wildfire smoke, ECCC's forecasts and air quality statements add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"environment/air-quality","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Air quality","region":"Toronto, Ontario","unit":"AQHI","schedule":{"snapshot":"04:05","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-10-29","timezone":"America/Toronto","cutoff":"05:50"},"horizons":[0,1],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"ECCC official","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-10-29","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":7,"next_run":"2026-11-05T04:05:00-05:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[{"system":"chronos-2","n":10,"scaled_crps":1.0327212806026365,"scaled_mae":1.3961864406779658,"crps":0.48744444444444446,"mae":0.659,"coverage80":0.7},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.6664312617702447,"scaled_mae":0.8749999999999997,"crps":0.3145555555555556,"mae":0.4129999999999999,"coverage80":0.7},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","n":10,"scaled_crps":1.2850753295668547,"scaled_mae":1.6800847457627115,"crps":0.6065555555555555,"mae":0.7929999999999999,"coverage80":0.5},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.6686911487758944,"scaled_mae":0.6673728813559322,"crps":0.3156222222222222,"mae":0.31500000000000006,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.36162900188323915,"scaled_mae":0.39194915254237284,"crps":0.17068888888888892,"mae":0.185,"coverage80":0.9},{"system":"eccc-official","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.8792372881355932,"scaled_mae":0.8792372881355932,"crps":0.41500000000000004,"mae":0.41500000000000004,"coverage80":null},{"system":"seasonal-naive","n":10,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":0.4720000000000001,"mae":0.4720000000000001,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.7991996233521655,"scaled_mae":1.1631355932203389,"crps":0.37722222222222224,"mae":0.549,"coverage80":0.8},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.6692561205273069,"scaled_mae":0.8665254237288134,"crps":0.3158888888888889,"mae":0.409,"coverage80":0.7}],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":2.58},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":2.31},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":3.43},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":2.84},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":2.41},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":2.2},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":2.38},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":2.72},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":2.84},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":2.06},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":1.44},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":1.81},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":1.74},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":1.98},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":2.05},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":2.64},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":2.13},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":2.32},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":2.21},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":3.07},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":3.02},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":2.29},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":1.5},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":2.21},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":1.96},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":2.49},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":3.51},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":2.43},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":2.51},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":1.65},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":2.29},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":2.75},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":3.7},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":1.55},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":1.81},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":1.98},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":2.38},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":3.03},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":2.34},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":2.96},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":3.55},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":2.12},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":2.39},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":3.17},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":4.56},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":2.02},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":2.15},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":1.69},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":2.17},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2.9},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":3.67},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":2.67}]},{"id":"wikipedia_ai_pageviews","title":"Wikipedia Artificial intelligence daily page views","question":"How many user-classified views will English Wikipedia's Artificial intelligence article receive on each of the next seven UTC days?","summary":"Daily views of the fixed Artificial_intelligence article on English Wikipedia, across all access methods, with Wikimedia's user agent classification. News, product announcements and public events can change attention to the topic.","taxonomy":"attention/search-and-page-views","driver":"behavioral","tradable":false,"domain":"Online attention","region":"English Wikipedia, worldwide","unit":"views/day","schedule":{"snapshot":"11:55","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"13:45"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":null,"baseline_visible":null,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T11:55:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":17362.0},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":20874.0},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":20162.0},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":16001.0},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":14677.0},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":21659.0},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":20199.0},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":19014.0},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":19499.0},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":19196.0},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":15367.0},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":14954.0},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":19502.0},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":21765.0},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":24757.0},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":25166.0},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":18876.0},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":17311.0},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":16877.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":19257.0},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":24751.0},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":31799.0},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":23605.0},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":19814.0},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":13475.0},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":13506.0},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":18721.0},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":17623.0},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":17427.0},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":17938.0},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":16509.0},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":12740.0},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":13285.0},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":16075.0},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":16985.0},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":24797.0},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":18048.0},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":16703.0},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":12105.0},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":11974.0},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":16597.0},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":16329.0},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":16311.0},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":16334.0},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":15060.0},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":11802.0},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":12179.0},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":16943.0},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":18981.0},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":18071.0},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":17882.0},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":15967.0},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":13052.0},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":12385.0},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":15179.0},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":15121.0}]}],"continual_note":"You may have forecast this target on earlier run days in this same environment and session; if so, your earlier submissions are under `/home/user/history/<run date>/`. Compare them with the values published since, and use what you learn to improve how you forecast."}
+{"generated_at":"2026-11-04T16:45:12+00:00","results":"Chennzi/agentic-forecasting-results","github":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks","taxonomy":{"version":1,"domains":[{"id":"energy","name":"Energy","leaves":[{"id":"electricity-demand","name":"Electricity demand","examples":["ERCOT daily peak load","PJM daily load","CAISO daily load"]},{"id":"gas-demand","name":"Gas demand","examples":["GB NTS gas demand","AEMO Victoria gas demand"]},{"id":"renewable-generation","name":"Renewable generation","examples":["ERCOT daily wind output","CAISO daily solar output"]},{"id":"fuel-inventories","name":"Fuel inventories","examples":["EIA weekly natural gas storage","EIA weekly crude oil inventories"]},{"id":"energy-prices","name":"Energy prices","examples":["Henry Hub natural gas spot","US retail gasoline price"]}]},{"id":"health","name":"Public health","leaves":[{"id":"respiratory-illness","name":"Respiratory illness","examples":["CDC ILINet","influenza hospital admissions","COVID-19 hospital admissions"]},{"id":"other-infectious-disease","name":"Other infectious disease","examples":["Dengue cases","norovirus outbreaks"]},{"id":"health-care-use","name":"Health-care use","examples":["Emergency department visits"]}]},{"id":"economy","name":"Economy and labor","leaves":[{"id":"labor-market","name":"Labor market","examples":["US initial jobless claims"]},{"id":"consumer-prices","name":"Consumer prices","examples":["Food price indices","used car prices"]},{"id":"economic-activity","name":"Economic activity","examples":["Retail foot traffic","freight volumes"]},{"id":"bank-liquidity","name":"Bank liquidity","examples":["Norges Bank structural liquidity","ECB excess liquidity"]},{"id":"technology-adoption","name":"Technology adoption","examples":["Vercel AI Gateway spend shares by lab"]}]},{"id":"markets","name":"Financial markets","leaves":[{"id":"commodities","name":"Commodities","examples":["Corn futures","crude oil futures"]},{"id":"currencies","name":"Currencies","examples":["USD/JPY"]},{"id":"equities","name":"Equities and volatility","examples":["S&P 500 index","VIX"]}]},{"id":"environment","name":"Environment","leaves":[{"id":"weather","name":"Weather","examples":["Daily maximum air temperature","daily precipitation"]},{"id":"air-quality","name":"Air quality","examples":["PM2.5 concentration","ozone"]},{"id":"hydrology","name":"Hydrology","examples":["River discharge","reservoir storage"]},{"id":"natural-hazards","name":"Natural hazards","examples":["Wildfire burned area"]}]},{"id":"space","name":"Space","leaves":[{"id":"space-weather","name":"Space weather","examples":["Planetary Kp index","solar wind speed"]}]},{"id":"mobility","name":"Transport and mobility","leaves":[{"id":"air-travel","name":"Air travel","examples":["TSA checkpoint throughput"]},{"id":"ground-transport","name":"Ground transport","examples":["Transit ridership","road traffic counts"]}]},{"id":"attention","name":"Online attention","leaves":[{"id":"search-and-page-views","name":"Search and page views","examples":["Wikipedia page views","Google Trends interest"]},{"id":"media-and-social","name":"Media and social activity","examples":["News article volume","GitHub stars"]}]}],"facets":{"driver":{"weather":"Weather and climate","epidemic":"Disease transmission","economic":"Economic conditions and policy","behavioral":"Human behavior and events","market":"Market expectations","solar":"Solar activity"},"tradable":{"true":"Tradable price (control)","false":"Not tradable"}}},"systems":[{"id":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","kind":"agent","label":"Claude Code \u00b7 Sonnet 5","description":"Anthropic Claude Code 2.1.227 running claude-sonnet-5 with its default tools in bypassPermissions mode. Live runs add the open internet; the agent receives no data.","sort":0},{"id":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-continual","kind":"agent","label":"Claude Code \u00b7 Sonnet 5 \u00b7 continual","description":"The same Claude Code agent, continuing on every run day from a snapshot of the sandbox and native session of its previous run day (ALE --continue-from). Its earlier submissions are in /home/user/history/, and it is asked to compare them with the values published since and improve how it forecasts.","sort":0},{"id":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","kind":"agent","label":"Codex \u00b7 GPT-6.1 Sol","description":"OpenAI Codex CLI 0.146.0 running gpt-6.1-sol with its default settings: no approval prompts, no command sandbox, and its built-in web search. Live runs add the open internet; the agent receives no data.","sort":0},{"id":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual","kind":"agent","label":"Codex \u00b7 GPT-6.1 Sol \u00b7 continual","description":"The same Codex agent, continuing on every run day from a snapshot of the sandbox and native session of its previous run day (ALE --continue-from). Its earlier submissions are in /home/user/history/, and it is asked to compare them with the values published since and improve how it forecasts.","sort":0},{"id":"eccc-official","kind":"expert","label":"ECCC official","description":"ECCC's 06:00 AQHI forecast for the community on the run date, the first issue after the cutoff, which the agents cannot see. Its \"Today\" period gives the run date and its \"Tomorrow\" period the day after; each is ECCC's forecast maximum for 06:00 to 18:00, a whole number, with 10+ counted as 11. It is recorded the next day.","sort":1},{"id":"ercot-official","kind":"expert","label":"ERCOT official","description":"The forecast model ERCOT flags as in use, first version posted after the cutoff (the 09:30 version), which the agents cannot see; it is recorded the next day; the daily maximum of its hourly system total.","sort":1},{"id":"nws-official","kind":"expert","label":"NWS official","description":"The first river forecast the NWS issues for the gauge after the cutoff, normally its evening forecast of the run date, which the agents cannot see; the mean of its four six-hourly stage values on each date. It is recorded the next day.","sort":1},{"id":"chronos-2","kind":"tsfm","label":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 curated","description":"Curated TSFM: Amazon Chronos-2, zero-shot, given the run day's curated input: the target history plus the covariates the task's author chose, for the past and the forecast window, without the earlier expert forecast.","sort":2},{"id":"chronos-2-expert","kind":"tsfm","label":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 curated + expert","description":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 curated, plus the expert forecast's latest version before each snapshot as one more covariate. The version the run is compared with comes after the cutoff and is not included. The pair isolates what the earlier expert forecast adds.","sort":2},{"id":"chronos-2-univariate","kind":"tsfm","label":"Chronos-2 \u00b7 history only","description":"Amazon Chronos-2, zero-shot, given only the target history.","sort":2},{"id":"timesfm-3","kind":"tsfm","label":"TimesFM-3 \u00b7 curated","description":"Curated TSFM: Google TimesFM 3.0 (331M), zero-shot, given the run day's curated input with every known covariate for the past and the forecast window, without the earlier expert forecast. Weights under Google's non-commercial license.","sort":2},{"id":"timesfm-3-expert","kind":"tsfm","label":"TimesFM-3 \u00b7 curated + expert","description":"TimesFM-3 \u00b7 curated, plus the expert forecast's latest version before each snapshot as one more covariate. The version the run is compared with comes after the cutoff and is not included. The pair isolates what the earlier expert forecast adds.","sort":2},{"id":"seasonal-naive","kind":"reference","label":"Seasonal naive","description":"The value on the same weekday in the latest observed week. It is the denominator of every scaled score, so its own scaled score is 1.","sort":3}],"tasks":[{"id":"ercot_peak_load","title":"ERCOT daily peak load","question":"How high will electricity demand on the Texas grid peak on each of the next seven days?","summary":"The highest hourly electricity demand of each day on the ERCOT grid, which serves about 90% of Texas load. Weather drives it, and grid notices and news add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"energy/electricity-demand","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Electricity demand","region":"Texas (ERCOT grid)","unit":"MW","schedule":{"snapshot":"07:05","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-10-16","timezone":"America/Chicago","cutoff":"09:25"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"ERCOT official","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-10-24","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":11,"next_run":"2026-11-05T07:05:00-06:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[{"system":"chronos-2","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.5224946015489237,"scaled_mae":0.669020535181685,"crps":1829.9703801169599,"mae":2343.158684210528,"coverage80":0.6578947368421053},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.34668360122238645,"scaled_mae":0.4327517750564975,"crps":1214.2148830409365,"mae":1515.657631578948,"coverage80":0.5263157894736842},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.6669030227861376,"scaled_mae":0.8510544696289652,"crps":2335.7423684210535,"mae":2980.7092105263177,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.3550507631348939,"scaled_mae":0.45402773293556803,"crps":1243.5197953216382,"mae":1590.1739473684222,"coverage80":0.868421052631579},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.3191082697951465,"scaled_mae":0.3879699418732254,"crps":1117.6358187134508,"mae":1358.8150000000007,"coverage80":0.9736842105263158},{"system":"ercot-official","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.36915494785375913,"scaled_mae":0.36915494785375913,"crps":1292.917894736843,"mae":1292.917894736843,"coverage80":null},{"system":"seasonal-naive","n":38,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":3502.371842105264,"mae":3502.371842105264,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.46709830732334884,"scaled_mae":0.6185533818322968,"crps":1635.9519590643279,"mae":2166.403947368422,"coverage80":0.6578947368421053},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","n":38,"scaled_crps":0.29006041912265695,"scaled_mae":0.39166488153554285,"crps":1015.8994444444451,"mae":1371.7560526315792,"coverage80":0.7631578947368421}],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-08","value":86278.55},{"date":"2026-09-09","value":85931.94},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":84538.73},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":85799.88},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":86491.57},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":86049.84},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":86157.25},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":86129.24},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":86167.87},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":82811.92},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":83098.65},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":82789.85},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":83005.03},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":85925.71},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":85311.93},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":85059.79},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":83426.9},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":81227.32},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":78487.51},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":81585.99},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":82504.9},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":80912.32},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":77838.24},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":66732.03},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":66602.18},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":62432.53},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":60263.42},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":69952.07},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":72381.47},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":73189.81},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":75120.38},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":73917.77},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":71643.27},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":73217.47},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":76145.36},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":81169.2},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":79009.83},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":74982.12},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":54532.28},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":49594.28},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":52374.04},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":56965.61},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":60239.11},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":63001.08},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":63381.26},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":63943.77},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":62087.1},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":58287.79},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":60005.82},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":61064.31},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":63406.9},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":59702.77},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":59794.65},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":62940.51},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":65881.05},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":59935.2}]},{"id":"gb_gas_demand","title":"GB daily gas demand","question":"How much gas will Great Britain's National Transmission System deliver tomorrow?","summary":"The gas delivered through Great Britain's National Transmission System (NTS) in a gas day, 05:00 to 05:00 UK time: to the regional networks that supply homes and businesses, to power stations and large industry, into storage and out through the interconnectors. Weather drives it, mostly through heating, and National Gas's system notices, the power market and interconnector flows add information that history alone does not contain. It is compared with National Gas's day-ahead demand forecast.","taxonomy":"energy/gas-demand","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Gas demand","region":"Great Britain (National Transmission System)","unit":"mcm per gas day","schedule":{"snapshot":"13:00","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"Europe/London","cutoff":"14:45"},"horizons":[1],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"National Gas forecast","baseline_visible":true,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T13:00:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":112.591},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":109.413},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":114.034},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":112.39},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":117.964},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":113.651},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":122.036},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":115.017},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":104.492},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":104.589},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":110.317},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":105.751},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":136.802},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":145.131},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":133.908},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":142.206},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":136.284},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":114.136},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":111.17},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":145.505},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":118.155},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":141.194},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":160.678},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":160.986},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":162.148},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":163.653},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":159.534},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":165.3},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":162.202},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":146.384},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":145.421},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":161.834},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":159.093},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":170.752},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":165.326},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":158.495},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":161.113},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":161.641},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":159.488},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":163.916},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":176.958},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":173.54},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":176.708},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":169.681},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":169.002},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":184.1},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":162.785},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":168.825},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":164.0},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":188.736},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":199.084},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":191.282},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":189.899},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":199.001},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":216.371},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":227.612}]},{"id":"kp_index_daily_max","title":"Planetary Kp index, daily maximum","question":"How high will the planetary Kp index of geomagnetic activity reach tomorrow and the day after (UTC)?","summary":"The highest of the day's eight three-hourly values of the planetary K index (Kp), the 0 to 9 scale of geomagnetic disturbance behind NOAA's geomagnetic storm warnings, as NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) estimates it in near real time. Solar wind streams and coronal mass ejections drive it, and solar images, solar wind measurements and forecasters' discussions add information that history alone does not contain. It is compared with SWPC's 3-day forecast.","taxonomy":"space/space-weather","driver":"solar","tradable":false,"domain":"Space weather","region":"Global (planetary index)","unit":"Kp","schedule":{"snapshot":"10:15","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"12:20"},"horizons":[1,2],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"SWPC 3-day forecast","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T10:15:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":3.67},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":1.67},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":1.67},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":1.67},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":1.33},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":1.33},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":5.67},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":5.33},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":7.0},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":3.33},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":3.67},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":2.33},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":1.0},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":4.67},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":2.67},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":2.33},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":2.33},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":4.33},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":6.0},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":4.67},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":2.0}]},{"id":"lax_daily_tmax","title":"Daily maximum temperature at Los Angeles airport","question":"What will the highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport be on each of the next six days?","summary":"The day's highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport, as the National Weather Service's daily climate report gives it. The airport is on the coast: sea breezes and the marine layer usually keep it mild, while offshore winds such as the Santa Ana bring some of its warmest days. Forecasts, weather models and forecast discussions carry information that the temperature history alone does not.","taxonomy":"environment/weather","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Weather","region":"Los Angeles, California (LAX)","unit":"\u00b0F","schedule":{"snapshot":"16:35","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"18:20"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"NWS official","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T16:35:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":99.0},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":92.0},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":85.0},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":82.0},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":79.0},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":80.0},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":81.0},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":79.0},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":78.0},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":78.0},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":78.0},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":78.0},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":81.0},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":85.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":83.0},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":81.0},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":76.0},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":87.0},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":102.0},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":102.0},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":101.0},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":94.0},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":86.0},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":80.0},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":79.0},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":74.0},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":69.0},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":73.0},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":81.0},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":88.0},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":99.0},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":90.0},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":87.0},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":80.0},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":82.0},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":74.0},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":72.0},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":72.0},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":76.0},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":78.0},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":77.0},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":75.0},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":75.0},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":73.0},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":72.0},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":72.0},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":71.0},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":73.0},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":73.0}]},{"id":"mississippi_st_louis_stage","title":"Mississippi River stage at St. Louis","question":"How high will the Mississippi River be at St. Louis, on average, on each of the next 13 days?","summary":"The daily mean water level of the Mississippi at the St. Louis gauge, just below the mouth of the Missouri River. Barge traffic depends on it: below about 1 ft, barges may have to carry lighter loads. Rain and snowmelt across the upper Mississippi and Missouri basins drive it days to weeks later, and river forecasts, reservoir releases and navigation notices add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"environment/hydrology","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Hydrology","region":"St. Louis, Missouri (Mississippi River)","unit":"ft","schedule":{"snapshot":"16:50","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-10-29","timezone":"America/Chicago","cutoff":"18:40"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"NWS official","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-10-29","latest_run":"2026-11-03","run_days":6,"next_run":"2026-11-04T16:50:00-06:00","last_observed":"2026-11-02","leaderboard":[{"system":"chronos-2","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.2730185147113129,"scaled_mae":0.37521992714487307,"crps":1.0252418873648492,"mae":1.4090296648550724,"coverage80":0.75},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.09872081289329346,"scaled_mae":0.13293353510613765,"crps":0.37071739489878064,"mae":0.4991933553312628,"coverage80":0.625},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.3568379056819871,"scaled_mae":0.4291885958479616,"crps":1.3400013119680239,"mae":1.611693355331263,"coverage80":0.75},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.0876654037608079,"scaled_mae":0.10288832230203276,"crps":0.3292020107257877,"mae":0.38636726837474095,"coverage80":0.375},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.0867518218196759,"scaled_mae":0.10240650380029709,"crps":0.3257713185817805,"mae":0.3845579386645961,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"nws-official","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.09627415085088606,"scaled_mae":0.09627415085088606,"crps":0.3615296648550725,"mae":0.3615296648550725,"coverage80":null},{"system":"seasonal-naive","n":8,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":3.7552101125776396,"mae":3.7552101125776396,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.20382206687866122,"scaled_mae":0.23279479153596588,"crps":0.7653946867092246,"mae":0.8741933553312626,"coverage80":0.875},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","n":8,"scaled_crps":0.0715751544853244,"scaled_mae":0.10754851426875808,"crps":0.26877974393259696,"mae":0.4038672683747409,"coverage80":1.0}],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-08","value":-0.9465853658536586},{"date":"2026-09-09","value":-1.166111111111111},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":-0.8307499999999999},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":-0.2272916666666666},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":0.5810416666666667},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":2.426875},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":3.0060416666666665},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":1.3766666666666667},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":0.7833333333333333},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":1.8091666666666668},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":3.7385416666666655},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":5.570625},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":7.413958333333333},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":9.941666666666666},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":12.197083333333332},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":14.26304347826087},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":14.531063829787234},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":15.239574468085106},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":15.83608695652174},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":16.145652173913046},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":15.769565217391303},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":14.377916666666666},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":12.940833333333332},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":11.278541666666667},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":10.331458333333334},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":12.21875},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":16.39875},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":21.80458333333333},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":23.74895833333333},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":22.921458333333334},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":20.898125},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":18.805208333333333},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":16.673125000000002},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":15.039791666666666},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":13.71468085106383},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":12.589166666666666},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":12.990652173913045},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":11.280851063829788},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":11.069767441860463},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":9.949574468085109},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":9.380208333333334},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":9.475},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":8.028863636363637},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":7.666744186046512},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":8.357234042553191},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":8.49159090909091},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":7.717826086956522},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":6.5806818181818185},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":6.381555555555556},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":4.63375},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":4.232083333333333},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":5.173333333333333},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":4.4035416666666665},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":3.3229166666666665},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2.816428571428572},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":3.1686956521739127}]},{"id":"toronto_aqhi","title":"Toronto daytime AQHI","question":"How high will Toronto's Air Quality Health Index get during the day today and tomorrow?","summary":"The highest hourly Air Quality Health Index of the day in Toronto, as observed by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). The index combines ozone, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter into a health-risk scale from 1 to 10+. Weather drives it, and wildfire smoke, ECCC's forecasts and air quality statements add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"environment/air-quality","driver":"weather","tradable":false,"domain":"Air quality","region":"Toronto, Ontario","unit":"AQHI","schedule":{"snapshot":"04:05","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-10-29","timezone":"America/Toronto","cutoff":"05:50"},"horizons":[0,1],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":"ECCC official","baseline_visible":false,"live_since":"2026-10-29","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":7,"next_run":"2026-11-05T04:05:00-05:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[{"system":"chronos-2","n":10,"scaled_crps":1.0327212806026365,"scaled_mae":1.3961864406779658,"crps":0.48744444444444446,"mae":0.659,"coverage80":0.7},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.6664312617702447,"scaled_mae":0.8749999999999997,"crps":0.3145555555555556,"mae":0.4129999999999999,"coverage80":0.7},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","n":10,"scaled_crps":1.2850753295668547,"scaled_mae":1.6800847457627115,"crps":0.6065555555555555,"mae":0.7929999999999999,"coverage80":0.5},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.6686911487758944,"scaled_mae":0.6673728813559322,"crps":0.3156222222222222,"mae":0.31500000000000006,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.36162900188323915,"scaled_mae":0.39194915254237284,"crps":0.17068888888888892,"mae":0.185,"coverage80":0.9},{"system":"eccc-official","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.8792372881355932,"scaled_mae":0.8792372881355932,"crps":0.41500000000000004,"mae":0.41500000000000004,"coverage80":null},{"system":"seasonal-naive","n":10,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":0.4720000000000001,"mae":0.4720000000000001,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.7991996233521655,"scaled_mae":1.1631355932203389,"crps":0.37722222222222224,"mae":0.549,"coverage80":0.8},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","n":10,"scaled_crps":0.6692561205273069,"scaled_mae":0.8665254237288134,"crps":0.3158888888888889,"mae":0.409,"coverage80":0.7}],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":2.58},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":2.31},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":3.43},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":2.84},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":2.41},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":2.2},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":2.38},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":2.72},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":2.84},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":2.06},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":1.44},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":1.81},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":1.74},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":1.98},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":2.05},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":2.64},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":2.13},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":3.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":2.32},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":2.21},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":3.07},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":3.02},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":2.29},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":1.5},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":2.21},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":1.96},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":2.49},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":3.51},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":2.43},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":2.51},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":1.65},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":2.29},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":2.75},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":3.7},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":1.55},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":1.81},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":2.0},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":1.98},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":2.38},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":3.03},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":2.34},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":2.96},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":3.55},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":2.12},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":2.39},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":3.17},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":4.56},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":2.02},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":2.15},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":4.0},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":1.69},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":2.17},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2.9},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":3.67},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":2.67}]},{"id":"tsa_checkpoint_throughput","title":"TSA checkpoint throughput","question":"How many people will pass through US TSA airport security checkpoints on each of the seven days after the run date?","summary":"The number of people the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screens at airport security checkpoints across the United States in one day, as TSA first publishes it. Travel follows the day of the week, the season and the holidays; airline schedules, weather disruptions and news add information that history alone does not contain.","taxonomy":"mobility/air-travel","driver":"behavioral","tradable":false,"domain":"Air travel","region":"United States","unit":"passengers","schedule":{"snapshot":"11:15","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"America/New_York","cutoff":"13:00"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":null,"baseline_visible":null,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T11:15:00-05:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":2025542.0},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":2420875.0},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":2403791.0},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":1964375.0},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":2655404.0},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":2542694.0},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":1948803.0},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":2176546.0},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":2700658.0},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":2669918.0},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":2030699.0},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":2713974.0},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":2566118.0},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":2077346.0},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":2190871.0},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":2718551.0},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":2686828.0},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":1961406.0},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":2668686.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":2590470.0},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":1974631.0},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":2205144.0},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":2723082.0},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":2668498.0},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":2083573.0},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":2773151.0},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":2615107.0},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":2089407.0},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":2377978.0},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":2901564.0},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":2914371.0},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":2263744.0},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":2838781.0},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":2829340.0},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":2353356.0},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":2419474.0},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":2820142.0},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":2779839.0},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":2282586.0},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":2931779.0},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":2724075.0},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":2154162.0},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":2321158.0},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":2781103.0},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":2729432.0},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":2117643.0},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":2837625.0},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":2608778.0},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":1972890.0},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":2121934.0},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":2516359.0},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":2349091.0},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":1686878.0},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2530793.0},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":2444382.0},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":1966283.0}]},{"id":"wikipedia_ai_pageviews","title":"Wikipedia Artificial intelligence daily page views","question":"How many user-classified views will English Wikipedia's Artificial intelligence article receive on each of the next seven UTC days?","summary":"Daily views of the fixed Artificial_intelligence article on English Wikipedia, across all access methods, with Wikimedia's user agent classification. News, product announcements and public events can change attention to the topic.","taxonomy":"attention/search-and-page-views","driver":"behavioral","tradable":false,"domain":"Online attention","region":"English Wikipedia, worldwide","unit":"views/day","schedule":{"snapshot":"11:55","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"13:45"},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"baseline":null,"baseline_visible":null,"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-04","run_days":1,"next_run":"2026-11-05T11:55:00+00:00","last_observed":"2026-11-03","leaderboard":[],"truth":[{"date":"2026-09-09","value":17362.0},{"date":"2026-09-10","value":20874.0},{"date":"2026-09-11","value":20162.0},{"date":"2026-09-12","value":16001.0},{"date":"2026-09-13","value":14677.0},{"date":"2026-09-14","value":21659.0},{"date":"2026-09-15","value":20199.0},{"date":"2026-09-16","value":19014.0},{"date":"2026-09-17","value":19499.0},{"date":"2026-09-18","value":19196.0},{"date":"2026-09-19","value":15367.0},{"date":"2026-09-20","value":14954.0},{"date":"2026-09-21","value":19502.0},{"date":"2026-09-22","value":21765.0},{"date":"2026-09-23","value":24757.0},{"date":"2026-09-24","value":25166.0},{"date":"2026-09-25","value":18876.0},{"date":"2026-09-26","value":17311.0},{"date":"2026-09-27","value":16877.0},{"date":"2026-09-28","value":19257.0},{"date":"2026-09-29","value":24751.0},{"date":"2026-09-30","value":31799.0},{"date":"2026-10-01","value":23605.0},{"date":"2026-10-02","value":19814.0},{"date":"2026-10-03","value":13475.0},{"date":"2026-10-04","value":13506.0},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":18721.0},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":17623.0},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":17427.0},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":17938.0},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":16509.0},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":12740.0},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":13285.0},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":16075.0},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":16985.0},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":24797.0},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":18048.0},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":16703.0},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":12105.0},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":11974.0},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":16597.0},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":16329.0},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":16311.0},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":16334.0},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":15060.0},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":11802.0},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":12179.0},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":16943.0},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":18981.0},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":18071.0},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":17882.0},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":15967.0},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":13052.0},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":12385.0},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":15179.0},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":15121.0}]}],"continual_note":"You may have forecast this target on earlier run days in this same environment and session; if so, your earlier submissions are under `/home/user/history/<run date>/`. Compare them with the values published since, and use what you learn to improve how you forecast."}

site/tasks/lax_daily_tmax.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"id":"lax_daily_tmax","spec":{"target":"lax_daily_tmax","title":"Daily maximum temperature at Los Angeles airport","question":"What will the highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport be on each of the next six days?","taxonomy":"environment/weather","driver":"weather","domain":"Weather","region":"Los Angeles, California (LAX)","unit":"\u00b0F","tradable":false,"summary":"The day's highest temperature at Los Angeles International Airport, as the National Weather Service's daily climate report gives it. The airport is on the coast: sea breezes and the marine layer usually keep it mild, while offshore winds such as the Santa Ana bring some of its warmest days. Forecasts, weather models and forecast discussions carry information that the temperature history alone does not.","y":{"definition":"The MAXIMUM under TEMPERATURE (F) in the NWS Daily Climate Report for Los Angeles International Airport (product CLILAX, NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard), in whole \u00b0F, for the climate day from midnight to midnight Pacific Standard Time (on standard time all year, so 1 a.m. to 1 a.m. PDT in summer).","settlement":"First final report for the day that gives a maximum, normally issued within 3 hours after midnight PST (at the latest 4 h 49 min after it in 2024-2026); the preliminary report of about 5 p.m. and later corrections do not count. A day without one stays unresolved.","source":{"name":"NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX, archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet","url":"https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=CLILAX"}},"schedule":{"snapshot":"16:35","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"18:20"},"x":{"history_start":"2024-01-01","frequency":"daily, with the climate reports and forecast issues it is derived from","given_to":"TSFMs only; agents find their own information","raw":["Every final climate report's maximum, with its issue time (CLILAX)","Daytime highs of the latest NWS Tabular State Forecast before the snapshot (SFTLOX)"],"groups":[{"name":"Temperature history","columns":["target"],"what":"The target itself, every day up to the day before the run date, from its first final climate report; the rare day without one is filled in linearly from its neighbours.","why":"Carries the seasonal cycle and the recent run of warm or cool days, which persist for a few days with the weather pattern.","source":"NWS Daily Climate Report CLILAX, archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet","url":"https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=CLILAX"},{"name":"Earlier NWS forecast","columns":["nws"],"expert":true,"what":"The NWS forecast high (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.) for Los Angeles Intl Airport as a run could see it: for past days, from the latest Tabular State Forecast issued before the previous day's snapshot, one day ahead; for the forecast window, from the latest issued before this snapshot. The forecast the run is compared with comes out after the cutoff and is not included.","why":"Forecasters combine weather models with local knowledge of the marine layer and offshore winds, which the temperature history alone cannot see.","source":"NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Tabular State Forecast (SFTLOX), archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet","url":"https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=SFTLOX"},{"name":"Calendar","columns":["dow","doy_sin","doy_cos"],"what":"Weekday and the sine and cosine of the day of the year, known for every history and forecast date.","why":"Represent the smooth annual temperature cycle.","source":"computed"}]},"baseline":{"system":"nws-official","label":"NWS official","name":"NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard forecast high for Los Angeles Intl Airport","kind":"point","visible_to_agents":false,"method":"The first Tabular State Forecast (SFTLOX) the NWS issues after the cutoff, normally the one of about 18:28 UTC, which the agents cannot see: its daytime high (6 a.m. to 6 p.m.) for Los Angeles Intl Airport on each target date. If no SFTLOX comes out within a day of the cutoff, the first Point Forecast Matrices (PFMLOX) after it, whose Max for Los Angeles Airport is the same forecast. It is recorded the next day.","source":{"name":"NWS Tabular State Forecast SFTLOX (Point Forecast Matrices PFMLOX if it is missing), archived by the Iowa Environmental 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site/tasks/tsa_checkpoint_throughput.json

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"id":"tsa_checkpoint_throughput","spec":{"target":"tsa_checkpoint_throughput","title":"TSA checkpoint throughput","question":"How many people will pass through US TSA airport security checkpoints on each of the seven days after the run date?","taxonomy":"mobility/air-travel","driver":"behavioral","domain":"Air travel","region":"United States","unit":"passengers","tradable":false,"summary":"The number of people the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) screens at airport security checkpoints across the United States in one day, as TSA first publishes it. Travel follows the day of the week, the season and the holidays; airline schedules, weather disruptions and news add information that history alone does not contain.","y":{"definition":"TSA's checkpoint travel number for a calendar day: the number of travelers screened at TSA security checkpoints nationwide on that day, in whole passengers, as published in the Date/Numbers table of TSA's Passenger Volumes page under that date.","settlement":"First published value: the number TSA first posts for the day; later revisions, such as those on TSA's archive page of a past year, are not used. TSA posts on weekday mornings, usually by 10:00 ET, adding the previous day; Monday's posting adds Friday to Sunday, and holiday weeks may be later. tsa.gov refuses the pipeline's automated requests, so the pipeline records each day's number from the settlement of Kalshi's KXTSAD market for that day, whose rules settle on TSA's first published number and which matched TSA's page on all 24 days compared (2026-10-09 to 11-01); Kalshi usually settles 09:45 to 10:30 ET. A day Kalshi has not settled is taken from the Internet Archive's latest capture of TSA's page. Days before 2026-10-09 come from captures of TSA's pages as retrieved once, where past years carry TSA's year-end revisions.","source":{"name":"TSA checkpoint travel numbers (Passenger Volumes), as settled by Kalshi's KXTSAD markets, with Internet Archive captures of TSA's page where Kalshi has none","url":"https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes"}},"schedule":{"snapshot":"11:15","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"America/New_York","cutoff":"13:00"},"x":{"history_start":"2024-01-01","frequency":"daily","given_to":"TSFMs only; agents find their own information","raw":["Daily TSA counts with the source of each value"],"groups":[{"name":"TSA throughput history","columns":["target"],"what":"The target itself, every day up to the last one recorded before the run. TSA posts a Monday-to-Thursday number the next morning and Friday to Sunday on Monday, and Kalshi settled the previous day before the 11:15 start on 13 of 16 posting mornings from 2026-10-13 to 11-03, so X usually ends on the previous day on weekdays and on Thursday on weekends. When Kalshi settles later, X ends a day earlier, and the agents can still find the number. A day missing between two published days is filled in linearly from its neighbours.","why":"Air travel repeats weekly and yearly, and the last weeks carry the season's level.","source":"TSA Passenger Volumes: Kalshi KXTSAD settlements from 2026-10-09, Internet Archive captures of TSA's pages","url":"https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes"},{"name":"Travel calendar","columns":["dow","federal_holiday","thanksgiving_window","winter_holidays","day_of_year"],"what":"Day of week (Monday = 0); US federal holidays, on their observed dates; the days from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the Monday after; December 20 to January 4; and the day of the year.","why":"Travel peaks and dips around holidays whose dates and weekdays move every year, which a weekly or yearly lag alone cannot 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Days before 2026-10-09 come from captures of TSA's pages as retrieved once, where past years carry TSA's year-end revisions."},"last_observed":"2026-11-03","known_covariates":["dow","federal_holiday","thanksgiving_window","winter_holidays","day_of_year"],"expert_covariates":[],"past_covariates":[],"covariate_notes":{"target":"TSA's first published number of travelers screened at its checkpoints that day, nationwide; from 2026-10-09 the settlement of Kalshi's KXTSAD market for the day where there is one. A day missing between two published days is filled linearly from its neighbours","dow":"day of week, Monday = 0","federal_holiday":"1 on a US federal holiday, on its observed date","thanksgiving_window":"1 from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving to the Monday after","winter_holidays":"1 from December 20 to January 4","day_of_year":"day of the year, 1 to 366"}},"case_studies":[],"links":{"live_task":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/live/tsa_checkpoint_throughput","mock_tasks":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/mock/tsa_checkpoint_throughput","results":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/Chennzi/agentic-forecasting-results/tree/main/runs/tsa_checkpoint_throughput"}}

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