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Upload 4 files
Browse files- app.py +172 -0
- config.py +106 -0
- logic.py +458 -0
- requirements.txt +7 -0
app.py
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# ---------------- APP ----------------
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# This is the main file to run the Gradio application.
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# It imports logic from logic.py and configuration from config.py
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import gradio as gr
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# Import constants needed for the UI
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from config import CRISIS_PERIODS, EXAMPLE_PORTFOLIOS, CRISIS_SUMMARY
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# Import the main simulation function
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from logic import run_crisis_simulation
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# --- UI Helper Functions ---
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def load_example(example_name):
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"""Updates ticker and weight textboxes based on selection."""
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portfolio = EXAMPLE_PORTFOLIOS.get(example_name, {"tickers": "", "weights": ""})
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return gr.update(value=portfolio["tickers"]), gr.update(value=portfolio["weights"])
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def update_crisis_summary(crisis_name):
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"""Updates the crisis summary text when a crisis is selected."""
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summary = CRISIS_SUMMARY.get(crisis_name, "")
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if summary:
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return f"**Crisis summary:** _{summary}_"
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return ""
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# ---------------- UI DEFINITION ----------------
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with gr.Blocks(theme=gr.themes.Soft(), title="Crisis Lens (India)") as demo:
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gr.Markdown(
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"""
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# 🇮🇳 Crisis Lens — Indian Stock Stress Simulator
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How would your portfolio have performed during a major market crisis?
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Select a historical crisis and your portfolio to find out.
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"""
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)
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with gr.Row():
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with gr.Column(scale=2):
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crisis_dd = gr.Dropdown(
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list(CRISIS_PERIODS.keys()),
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label="Select Crisis",
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value="COVID-19 Crash (India)",
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)
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crisis_info = gr.Markdown(
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f"**Crisis summary:** _{CRISIS_SUMMARY['COVID-19 Crash (India)']}_",
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elem_classes="crisis-summary",
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)
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with gr.Column(scale=1):
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example_loader_dd = gr.Dropdown(
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list(EXAMPLE_PORTFOLIOS.keys()),
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label="Load Example Portfolio",
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value="Select Example...", # will be overridden by .load()
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)
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with gr.Row():
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with gr.Column(scale=1):
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gr.Markdown("### 1. Define Your Portfolio")
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upload_csv = gr.File(
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label="Upload Portfolio CSV (Ticker,Weight)",
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file_types=[".csv"]
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)
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gr.Markdown("...or enter manually below:")
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# Set default values to blank, they will be filled by the load_example function
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tickers_input = gr.Textbox(
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label="Tickers (comma separated)",
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value=""
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)
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weights_input = gr.Textbox(
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label="Weights (comma separated)",
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value=""
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)
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add_etf_cb = gr.Checkbox(
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label="Add 5% NIFTYBEES.NS to portfolio (diversify)",
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value=False
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)
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gr.Markdown("---")
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gr.Markdown("### 🤖 2. AI Insights (Optional)")
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gemini_api_key_in = gr.Textbox(
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label="Gemini API Key (optional, not stored)",
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placeholder="Paste your Gemini API key here to get AI-generated insights",
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type="password",
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)
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gemini_extra_prompt_in = gr.Textbox(
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label="Extra instructions for AI (optional)",
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placeholder="e.g., Focus more on risk, or write in simple language, etc.",
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lines=2,
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)
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gr.Markdown("---")
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run_btn = gr.Button("Run Simulation", variant="primary")
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logs_txt = gr.Textbox(label="Status / Logs", interactive=False)
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with gr.Column(scale=3):
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gr.Markdown("### 3. Analyze the Results")
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plot_performance = gr.Plot()
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with gr.Row():
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metrics_output = gr.Markdown()
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pie_chart = gr.Plot()
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with gr.Row():
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sector_plot_output = gr.Plot()
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insights_output = gr.Markdown()
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gr.Markdown("### 🤖 AI-Generated Insights")
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gemini_insights_md = gr.Markdown(
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value="*AI insights will appear here after running simulation with a Gemini API key.*"
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)
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# ---------------- EVENT HANDLERS ----------------
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# Update crisis summary when crisis selection changes
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crisis_dd.change(
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fn=update_crisis_summary,
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inputs=[crisis_dd],
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outputs=[crisis_info],
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)
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# Connect the example loader dropdown to the textboxes
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example_loader_dd.change(
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fn=load_example,
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inputs=[example_loader_dd],
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outputs=[tickers_input, weights_input],
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)
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# Connect the "Run" button to the main simulation function
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run_btn.click(
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run_crisis_simulation,
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inputs=[
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crisis_dd,
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upload_csv,
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tickers_input,
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weights_input,
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add_etf_cb,
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gemini_api_key_in,
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gemini_extra_prompt_in,
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],
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outputs=[
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plot_performance,
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metrics_output,
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sector_plot_output,
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insights_output,
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pie_chart,
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logs_txt,
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gemini_insights_md,
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],
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)
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def load_default_example():
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default_name = "Large-Cap (Default)"
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portfolio = EXAMPLE_PORTFOLIOS.get(default_name, {"tickers": "", "weights": ""})
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summary = CRISIS_SUMMARY.get("COVID-19 Crash (India)", "")
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return (
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gr.update(value=default_name),
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gr.update(value=portfolio["tickers"]),
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gr.update(value=portfolio["weights"]),
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f"**Crisis summary:** _{summary}_",
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)
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demo.load(
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fn=load_default_example,
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inputs=None,
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outputs=[example_loader_dd, tickers_input, weights_input, crisis_info],
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)
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# ---------------- LAUNCH ----------------
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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demo.launch(share=True, debug=True)
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config.py
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# ---------------- CONFIG ----------------
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# This file contains all static configuration data for the application.
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CRISIS_PERIODS = {
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"2008 Global Financial Crisis (India)": ("2008-01-01", "2009-03-31"),
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"COVID-19 Crash (India)": ("2020-02-01", "2020-11-30"),
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"Demonetization Shock (2016)": ("2016-11-01", "2017-02-28"),
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"IL&FS Debt Crisis (2018)": ("2018-08-01", "2018-12-31"),
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"Ketan Parekh / Dot-com Burst (India)": ("2000-03-01", "2001-09-30"),
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}
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BENCHMARK_TICKER = "^NSEI"
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BENCHMARK_NAME = "NIFTY 50"
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RECOVERY_DAYS = 90
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CRISIS_SUMMARY = {
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"2008 Global Financial Crisis (India)": "Global credit and liquidity crisis; banks and financials hit hard; heavy foreign outflows.",
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"COVID-19 Crash (India)": "Rapid market fall in Mar 2020 due to pandemic lockdowns; tech & pharma were more resilient.",
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"Demonetization Shock (2016)": "Policy shock in Nov 2016 causing short-term consumption & liquidity effects.",
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"IL&FS Debt Crisis (2018)": "Infrastructure debt/default scare leading to liquidity risk concerns for NBFCs and financials.",
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"Ketan Parekh / Dot-com Burst (India)": "Late 1990s / early 2000s Indian IT/tech boom and subsequent bust after financial irregularities.",
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}
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CRISIS_INSIGHTS = {
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"COVID-19 Crash (India)": {
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"Information Technology": "IT companies showed resilience as global digital adoption rose; services exports continued.",
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"Banks": "Banks faced short-term credit stress and moratoriums; credit growth slowed.",
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"Energy": "Lower demand due to lockdowns hit energy & fuel consumption.",
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"Pharmaceuticals": "Pharma and healthcare often outperformed due to demand for medical supplies.",
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},
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"2008 Global Financial Crisis (India)": {
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"Finance": "Banks and NBFCs suffered due to global liquidity freeze and foreign capital outflows.",
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"Metals & Mining": "Commodity demand slump affected exporters and metal companies.",
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},
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"Demonetization Shock (2016)": {
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"Consumer Discretionary": "Spending fell short-term; small businesses faced cash shortages.",
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"Banking": "Short-term spike in deposits but transactional disruption.",
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},
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"IL&FS Debt Crisis (2018)": {
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"Financial Services": "NBFCs and related sectors were directly impacted due to counterparty risk.",
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},
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"Ketan Parekh / Dot-com Burst (India)": {
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"Information Technology": "Large re-rating and correction after speculative run-up in tech/IT names.",
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},
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}
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EXAMPLE_PORTFOLIOS = {
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"Large-Cap (Default)": {
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"tickers": "RELIANCE.NS, TCS.NS, HDFCBANK.NS",
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"weights": "0.4, 0.3, 0.3",
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},
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"IT / Tech Focus": {
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"tickers": "TCS.NS, INFY.NS, WIPRO.NS, HCLTECH.NS",
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"weights": "0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2",
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},
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"Banking Focus": {
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"tickers": "HDFCBANK.NS, ICICIBANK.NS, SBIN.NS, KOTAKBANK.NS",
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"weights": "0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2",
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},
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"Diversified (Mock)": {
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"tickers": "RELIANCE.NS, HDFCBANK.NS, INFY.NS, HINDUNILVR.NS, ITC.NS",
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"weights": "0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2",
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},
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"Pharma Focus": {
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"tickers": "SUNPHARMA.NS, DRREDDY.NS, CIPLA.NS, DIVISLAB.NS",
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"weights": "0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25",
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},
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"Select Example...": {"tickers": "", "weights": ""}, # Placeholder
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}
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# -------------------------
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# Gemini / LLM Config
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# -------------------------
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GEMINI_MODEL_NAME = "gemini-2.0-flash-lite-001"
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GEMINI_SYSTEM_PROMPT = """
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You are a senior Indian equity and portfolio analyst.
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You explain historical crisis behaviour of portfolios in short, clear bullet-point insights.
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Guidelines:
|
| 81 |
+
- Focus on Indian equity context and the specific crisis mentioned.
|
| 82 |
+
- Use simple language but keep it financially accurate.
|
| 83 |
+
- Use only the metrics scorecard provided (no assumptions about individual sectors or stocks).
|
| 84 |
+
- Be concise: 5–7 bullet points, maximum ~200 words.
|
| 85 |
+
- Avoid giving investment advice; stay descriptive and educational.
|
| 86 |
+
"""
|
| 87 |
+
|
| 88 |
+
GEMINI_USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE = """
|
| 89 |
+
You are analysing how an investor's portfolio behaved during the historical crisis: {crisis_name}.
|
| 90 |
+
|
| 91 |
+
Here is a scorecard comparing their portfolio vs NIFTY during that crisis window:
|
| 92 |
+
|
| 93 |
+
{metrics_text}
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
TASK:
|
| 96 |
+
- Write 5–7 short bullet points.
|
| 97 |
+
- Explain:
|
| 98 |
+
- How the portfolio did vs NIFTY overall.
|
| 99 |
+
- What the volatility and max drawdown imply.
|
| 100 |
+
- Whether the portfolio looked relatively resilient or vulnerable in that period.
|
| 101 |
+
- Keep it under 200 words.
|
| 102 |
+
- Do NOT mention that you are an AI model or talk about prompts.
|
| 103 |
+
|
| 104 |
+
Extra style/emphasis from the user (if any):
|
| 105 |
+
{extra_instructions}
|
| 106 |
+
"""
|
logic.py
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,458 @@
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# ---------------- LOGIC ----------------
|
| 2 |
+
# This file contains all the data processing and simulation logic.
|
| 3 |
+
|
| 4 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 5 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 6 |
+
import yfinance as yf
|
| 7 |
+
import plotly.express as px
|
| 8 |
+
import plotly.graph_objects as go
|
| 9 |
+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 10 |
+
import warnings
|
| 11 |
+
from datetime import timedelta
|
| 12 |
+
|
| 13 |
+
# Import configuration variables
|
| 14 |
+
from config import (
|
| 15 |
+
CRISIS_PERIODS,
|
| 16 |
+
BENCHMARK_TICKER,
|
| 17 |
+
BENCHMARK_NAME,
|
| 18 |
+
RECOVERY_DAYS,
|
| 19 |
+
CRISIS_SUMMARY,
|
| 20 |
+
CRISIS_INSIGHTS,
|
| 21 |
+
GEMINI_MODEL_NAME,
|
| 22 |
+
GEMINI_SYSTEM_PROMPT,
|
| 23 |
+
GEMINI_USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE,
|
| 24 |
+
)
|
| 25 |
+
|
| 26 |
+
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
try:
|
| 29 |
+
import google.generativeai as genai
|
| 30 |
+
except ImportError:
|
| 31 |
+
genai = None
|
| 32 |
+
|
| 33 |
+
# ---------------- UTILS ----------------
|
| 34 |
+
|
| 35 |
+
def _ensure_ns_suffix(t):
|
| 36 |
+
"""Ensures a ticker has the .NS suffix for Indian stocks."""
|
| 37 |
+
t = t.strip().upper()
|
| 38 |
+
if t.startswith("^") or "." in t:
|
| 39 |
+
return t
|
| 40 |
+
return t + ".NS"
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
def _fetch_prices(tickers, start, end):
|
| 43 |
+
"""Fetches historical price data from yfinance."""
|
| 44 |
+
raw = yf.download(tickers, start=start, end=end, progress=False, auto_adjust=True)
|
| 45 |
+
if "Adj Close" in raw:
|
| 46 |
+
df = raw["Adj Close"]
|
| 47 |
+
elif "Close" in raw:
|
| 48 |
+
df = raw["Close"]
|
| 49 |
+
else:
|
| 50 |
+
df = raw
|
| 51 |
+
if isinstance(df, pd.Series):
|
| 52 |
+
df = df.to_frame()
|
| 53 |
+
# Handle single ticker download which doesn't have multi-index cols
|
| 54 |
+
if not isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
|
| 55 |
+
df.columns = [c.upper() for c in df.columns]
|
| 56 |
+
return df
|
| 57 |
+
|
| 58 |
+
def calc_metrics(series, benchmark_returns=None):
|
| 59 |
+
"""Calculates key performance metrics for a time series."""
|
| 60 |
+
returns = series.pct_change().dropna()
|
| 61 |
+
if returns.empty:
|
| 62 |
+
return {
|
| 63 |
+
"total_return": 0,
|
| 64 |
+
"volatility": 0,
|
| 65 |
+
"VaR_95": 0,
|
| 66 |
+
"CAGR": 0,
|
| 67 |
+
"max_drawdown": 0,
|
| 68 |
+
"beta": None,
|
| 69 |
+
}
|
| 70 |
+
|
| 71 |
+
total_return = (series.iloc[-1] / series.iloc[0]) - 1
|
| 72 |
+
vol = returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)
|
| 73 |
+
VaR_95 = returns.quantile(0.05)
|
| 74 |
+
days = (series.index[-1] - series.index[0]).days
|
| 75 |
+
years = max(days / 365.25, 1 / 365.25)
|
| 76 |
+
CAGR = (series.iloc[-1] / series.iloc[0]) ** (1 / years) - 1
|
| 77 |
+
drawdown = (series / series.cummax()) - 1
|
| 78 |
+
max_dd = drawdown.min()
|
| 79 |
+
beta = None
|
| 80 |
+
if benchmark_returns is not None:
|
| 81 |
+
rr, br = returns.align(benchmark_returns, join="inner")
|
| 82 |
+
if len(rr) > 10:
|
| 83 |
+
cov = np.cov(rr, br)[0, 1]
|
| 84 |
+
varb = np.var(br)
|
| 85 |
+
beta = cov / varb if varb != 0 else np.nan
|
| 86 |
+
return {
|
| 87 |
+
"total_return": total_return,
|
| 88 |
+
"volatility": vol,
|
| 89 |
+
"VaR_95": VaR_95,
|
| 90 |
+
"CAGR": CAGR,
|
| 91 |
+
"max_drawdown": max_dd,
|
| 92 |
+
"beta": beta,
|
| 93 |
+
}
|
| 94 |
+
|
| 95 |
+
def sector_from_ticker(t):
|
| 96 |
+
"""Fetches sector and industry info for a ticker."""
|
| 97 |
+
try:
|
| 98 |
+
info = yf.Ticker(t).info
|
| 99 |
+
return info.get("sector", "Unknown"), info.get("industry", "Unknown")
|
| 100 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 101 |
+
return "Unknown", "Unknown"
|
| 102 |
+
|
| 103 |
+
def format_pct(x):
|
| 104 |
+
"""Formats a float as a percentage string."""
|
| 105 |
+
if x is None or (isinstance(x, float) and np.isnan(x)):
|
| 106 |
+
return "N/A"
|
| 107 |
+
return f"{x * 100:.2f}%"
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
# ---------------- GEMINI AI HELPER ----------------
|
| 110 |
+
|
| 111 |
+
def generate_gemini_insights(
|
| 112 |
+
api_key: str,
|
| 113 |
+
crisis_name: str,
|
| 114 |
+
metrics_md: str,
|
| 115 |
+
extra_instructions: str = "",
|
| 116 |
+
) -> str:
|
| 117 |
+
"""Call Gemini to get AI-generated insights based on metrics."""
|
| 118 |
+
if not api_key:
|
| 119 |
+
return "ℹ️ To see AI-generated insights, please paste a valid Gemini API key."
|
| 120 |
+
|
| 121 |
+
if genai is None:
|
| 122 |
+
return "⚠️ google-generativeai is not installed. Run `pip install google-generativeai` and retry."
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
user_prompt = GEMINI_USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.format(
|
| 125 |
+
crisis_name=crisis_name,
|
| 126 |
+
metrics_text=metrics_md,
|
| 127 |
+
extra_instructions=extra_instructions or "None.",
|
| 128 |
+
)
|
| 129 |
+
|
| 130 |
+
try:
|
| 131 |
+
genai.configure(api_key=api_key)
|
| 132 |
+
model = genai.GenerativeModel(
|
| 133 |
+
GEMINI_MODEL_NAME,
|
| 134 |
+
system_instruction=GEMINI_SYSTEM_PROMPT.strip(),
|
| 135 |
+
generation_config={"max_output_tokens": 256},
|
| 136 |
+
)
|
| 137 |
+
response = model.generate_content(user_prompt)
|
| 138 |
+
text = getattr(response, "text", "") or ""
|
| 139 |
+
if not text.strip():
|
| 140 |
+
return "⚠️ Gemini did not return any text. Please check your API key, quota, or try again."
|
| 141 |
+
return text.strip()
|
| 142 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 143 |
+
return f"⚠️ Gemini call failed: {e}"
|
| 144 |
+
|
| 145 |
+
# ---------------- SIMULATION ----------------
|
| 146 |
+
|
| 147 |
+
def run_crisis_simulation(
|
| 148 |
+
crisis,
|
| 149 |
+
uploaded,
|
| 150 |
+
tickers_str,
|
| 151 |
+
weights_str,
|
| 152 |
+
include_etf,
|
| 153 |
+
gemini_api_key="",
|
| 154 |
+
gemini_extra_prompt="",
|
| 155 |
+
):
|
| 156 |
+
"""
|
| 157 |
+
The main simulation function.
|
| 158 |
+
Takes user inputs, processes the portfolio, fetches data,
|
| 159 |
+
and returns all outputs for the Gradio interface.
|
| 160 |
+
"""
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
# --- 1. Parse Portfolio ---
|
| 163 |
+
if uploaded is not None:
|
| 164 |
+
try:
|
| 165 |
+
df = pd.read_csv(uploaded.name if hasattr(uploaded, "name") else uploaded)
|
| 166 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 167 |
+
return (
|
| 168 |
+
None,
|
| 169 |
+
f"Error reading CSV: {e}",
|
| 170 |
+
None,
|
| 171 |
+
None,
|
| 172 |
+
None,
|
| 173 |
+
"",
|
| 174 |
+
"No AI insights (CSV error).",
|
| 175 |
+
)
|
| 176 |
+
else:
|
| 177 |
+
try:
|
| 178 |
+
tickers = [t.strip() for t in tickers_str.split(",") if t.strip()]
|
| 179 |
+
weights = [float(w) for w in weights_str.split(",") if w.strip()]
|
| 180 |
+
if not tickers or not weights or len(tickers) != len(weights):
|
| 181 |
+
return (
|
| 182 |
+
None,
|
| 183 |
+
"Error: Mismatch between tickers and weights, or fields are empty.",
|
| 184 |
+
None,
|
| 185 |
+
None,
|
| 186 |
+
None,
|
| 187 |
+
"",
|
| 188 |
+
"No AI insights (input mismatch).",
|
| 189 |
+
)
|
| 190 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame({"Ticker": tickers, "Weight": weights})
|
| 191 |
+
except ValueError:
|
| 192 |
+
return (
|
| 193 |
+
None,
|
| 194 |
+
"Error: Weights must be numbers.",
|
| 195 |
+
None,
|
| 196 |
+
None,
|
| 197 |
+
None,
|
| 198 |
+
"",
|
| 199 |
+
"No AI insights (weights error).",
|
| 200 |
+
)
|
| 201 |
+
|
| 202 |
+
if df.empty or "Ticker" not in df or "Weight" not in df:
|
| 203 |
+
return (
|
| 204 |
+
None,
|
| 205 |
+
"Error: Invalid portfolio. Check inputs.",
|
| 206 |
+
None,
|
| 207 |
+
None,
|
| 208 |
+
None,
|
| 209 |
+
"",
|
| 210 |
+
"No AI insights (invalid portfolio).",
|
| 211 |
+
)
|
| 212 |
+
|
| 213 |
+
df["Ticker"] = df["Ticker"].apply(_ensure_ns_suffix)
|
| 214 |
+
|
| 215 |
+
# --- 2. Normalize Weights (with ETF logic) ---
|
| 216 |
+
try:
|
| 217 |
+
if include_etf:
|
| 218 |
+
# Scale user's portfolio to 95%
|
| 219 |
+
df["Weight"] = (
|
| 220 |
+
df["Weight"].astype(float) / df["Weight"].astype(float).sum()
|
| 221 |
+
) * 0.95
|
| 222 |
+
# Add the 5% ETF
|
| 223 |
+
etf_row = pd.DataFrame([{"Ticker": "NIFTYBEES.NS", "Weight": 0.05}])
|
| 224 |
+
df = pd.concat([df, etf_row], ignore_index=True)
|
| 225 |
+
else:
|
| 226 |
+
# Normalize user's portfolio to 100%
|
| 227 |
+
df["Weight"] = df["Weight"].astype(float) / df["Weight"].astype(float).sum()
|
| 228 |
+
except ZeroDivisionError:
|
| 229 |
+
return (
|
| 230 |
+
None,
|
| 231 |
+
"Error: Portfolio weights sum to zero.",
|
| 232 |
+
None,
|
| 233 |
+
None,
|
| 234 |
+
None,
|
| 235 |
+
"",
|
| 236 |
+
"No AI insights (weights zero).",
|
| 237 |
+
)
|
| 238 |
+
|
| 239 |
+
# --- 3. Fetch Data ---
|
| 240 |
+
start, end = CRISIS_PERIODS[crisis]
|
| 241 |
+
recovery_end = pd.to_datetime(end) + pd.Timedelta(days=RECOVERY_DAYS)
|
| 242 |
+
|
| 243 |
+
tickers = list(df["Ticker"].unique()) + [BENCHMARK_TICKER]
|
| 244 |
+
|
| 245 |
+
prices = _fetch_prices(tickers, start, recovery_end)
|
| 246 |
+
if prices.empty:
|
| 247 |
+
return (
|
| 248 |
+
None,
|
| 249 |
+
"No data found. Some tickers may not exist historically.",
|
| 250 |
+
None,
|
| 251 |
+
None,
|
| 252 |
+
None,
|
| 253 |
+
"",
|
| 254 |
+
"No AI insights (no data).",
|
| 255 |
+
)
|
| 256 |
+
|
| 257 |
+
# Ensure all required tickers were fetched
|
| 258 |
+
fetched_tickers = [c.upper() for c in prices.columns]
|
| 259 |
+
required_tickers = [t.upper() for t in df["Ticker"]] + [BENCHMARK_TICKER.upper()]
|
| 260 |
+
|
| 261 |
+
missing = [t for t in required_tickers if t not in fetched_tickers]
|
| 262 |
+
if missing:
|
| 263 |
+
return (
|
| 264 |
+
None,
|
| 265 |
+
f"Error: Could not fetch data for: {', '.join(missing)}",
|
| 266 |
+
None,
|
| 267 |
+
None,
|
| 268 |
+
None,
|
| 269 |
+
"",
|
| 270 |
+
"No AI insights (missing tickers).",
|
| 271 |
+
)
|
| 272 |
+
|
| 273 |
+
prices.ffill(inplace=True)
|
| 274 |
+
crisis_window = prices.loc[start:end]
|
| 275 |
+
|
| 276 |
+
if BENCHMARK_TICKER not in crisis_window.columns:
|
| 277 |
+
return (
|
| 278 |
+
None,
|
| 279 |
+
f"Error: Could not fetch benchmark {BENCHMARK_NAME} data for this period.",
|
| 280 |
+
None,
|
| 281 |
+
None,
|
| 282 |
+
None,
|
| 283 |
+
"",
|
| 284 |
+
"No AI insights (benchmark error).",
|
| 285 |
+
)
|
| 286 |
+
|
| 287 |
+
bench = crisis_window[BENCHMARK_TICKER]
|
| 288 |
+
|
| 289 |
+
# --- 4. Calculate Portfolio Performance ---
|
| 290 |
+
df_aligned = df.set_index("Ticker")
|
| 291 |
+
df_aligned.index = df_aligned.index.str.upper()
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
# Filter price columns to only those in our portfolio
|
| 294 |
+
portfolio_prices = crisis_window[df_aligned.index]
|
| 295 |
+
|
| 296 |
+
norm = (portfolio_prices / portfolio_prices.iloc[0]) * 100
|
| 297 |
+
weighted = (norm * df_aligned["Weight"]).sum(axis=1)
|
| 298 |
+
weighted.name = "Portfolio"
|
| 299 |
+
bench_norm = (bench / bench.iloc[0]) * 100
|
| 300 |
+
|
| 301 |
+
port_m = calc_metrics(weighted, bench.pct_change())
|
| 302 |
+
bench_m = calc_metrics(bench_norm)
|
| 303 |
+
|
| 304 |
+
# --- 5. Generate Outputs (Metrics Table) ---
|
| 305 |
+
beta_val = port_m["beta"]
|
| 306 |
+
if beta_val is None or (isinstance(beta_val, float) and np.isnan(beta_val)):
|
| 307 |
+
beta_str = "N/A"
|
| 308 |
+
else:
|
| 309 |
+
beta_str = f"{beta_val:.2f}"
|
| 310 |
+
|
| 311 |
+
metrics_md = f"""### Simulation: {crisis}
|
| 312 |
+
| Metric | Portfolio | {BENCHMARK_NAME} |
|
| 313 |
+
|:---|---:|---:|
|
| 314 |
+
| **Total Return** | **{format_pct(port_m['total_return'])}** | **{format_pct(bench_m['total_return'])}** |
|
| 315 |
+
| Max Drawdown | {format_pct(port_m['max_drawdown'])} | {format_pct(bench_m['max_drawdown'])} |
|
| 316 |
+
| Volatility (Ann.) | {format_pct(port_m['volatility'])} | {format_pct(bench_m['volatility'])} |
|
| 317 |
+
| CAGR | {format_pct(port_m['CAGR'])} | {format_pct(bench_m['CAGR'])} |
|
| 318 |
+
| Beta | {beta_str} | - |
|
| 319 |
+
| VaR (95%, Daily) | {format_pct(port_m['VaR_95'])} | {format_pct(bench_m['VaR_95'])} |
|
| 320 |
+
"""
|
| 321 |
+
|
| 322 |
+
# --- 6. Generate Outputs (Performance Plot) ---
|
| 323 |
+
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 324 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 325 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 326 |
+
x=weighted.index,
|
| 327 |
+
y=weighted.values,
|
| 328 |
+
name="Portfolio",
|
| 329 |
+
mode="lines",
|
| 330 |
+
line=dict(width=3, color="#1E88E5"),
|
| 331 |
+
)
|
| 332 |
+
)
|
| 333 |
+
fig.add_trace(
|
| 334 |
+
go.Scatter(
|
| 335 |
+
x=bench_norm.index,
|
| 336 |
+
y=bench_norm.values,
|
| 337 |
+
name=BENCHMARK_NAME,
|
| 338 |
+
mode="lines",
|
| 339 |
+
line=dict(width=2, color="#FFC107", dash="dot"),
|
| 340 |
+
)
|
| 341 |
+
)
|
| 342 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 343 |
+
title=f"<b>{crisis}</b>: Portfolio vs Benchmark Performance",
|
| 344 |
+
template="plotly_white",
|
| 345 |
+
xaxis_title="Date",
|
| 346 |
+
yaxis_title="Normalized Value (Base 100)",
|
| 347 |
+
height=450,
|
| 348 |
+
legend=dict(yanchor="top", y=0.99, xanchor="left", x=0.01),
|
| 349 |
+
)
|
| 350 |
+
|
| 351 |
+
# --- 7. Generate Outputs (Sector Analysis) ---
|
| 352 |
+
df["Sector"], df["Industry"] = zip(*df["Ticker"].map(sector_from_ticker))
|
| 353 |
+
sector_dd = []
|
| 354 |
+
for t in df.Ticker:
|
| 355 |
+
if t.upper() in crisis_window.columns:
|
| 356 |
+
ser = crisis_window[t.upper()]
|
| 357 |
+
dd = (ser / ser.cummax() - 1).min()
|
| 358 |
+
sector_dd.append(dd)
|
| 359 |
+
else:
|
| 360 |
+
sector_dd.append(0) # Ticker wasn't in crisis window
|
| 361 |
+
|
| 362 |
+
df["Drawdown"] = sector_dd
|
| 363 |
+
|
| 364 |
+
# Aggregate weighted drawdown by sector
|
| 365 |
+
sec_agg = df.groupby("Sector").apply(
|
| 366 |
+
lambda d: np.average(d["Drawdown"], weights=d["Weight"] / d["Weight"].sum())
|
| 367 |
+
)
|
| 368 |
+
sec_agg = sec_agg.sort_values()
|
| 369 |
+
|
| 370 |
+
sec_fig = px.bar(
|
| 371 |
+
sec_agg * 100,
|
| 372 |
+
y=sec_agg.index,
|
| 373 |
+
x=sec_agg.values,
|
| 374 |
+
orientation="h",
|
| 375 |
+
title="Weighted Max Drawdown by Sector",
|
| 376 |
+
labels={"x": "Max Drawdown (%)", "y": "Sector"},
|
| 377 |
+
)
|
| 378 |
+
sec_fig.update_layout(
|
| 379 |
+
template="plotly_white",
|
| 380 |
+
yaxis={"categoryorder": "total ascending"},
|
| 381 |
+
)
|
| 382 |
+
|
| 383 |
+
# --- 8. Generate Outputs (Insights & Pie Chart) ---
|
| 384 |
+
ins = [
|
| 385 |
+
f"### Insights for: {crisis}",
|
| 386 |
+
f"_{CRISIS_SUMMARY.get(crisis, 'No summary available.')}_",
|
| 387 |
+
]
|
| 388 |
+
if crisis in CRISIS_INSIGHTS:
|
| 389 |
+
for s, txt in CRISIS_INSIGHTS[crisis].items():
|
| 390 |
+
ins.append(f"- **{s}**: {txt}")
|
| 391 |
+
insights_md = "\n".join(ins)
|
| 392 |
+
|
| 393 |
+
# --- 8. Generate Outputs (Insights & Pie Chart) ---
|
| 394 |
+
ins = [
|
| 395 |
+
f"### Insights for: {crisis}",
|
| 396 |
+
f"_{CRISIS_SUMMARY.get(crisis, 'No summary available.')}_",
|
| 397 |
+
]
|
| 398 |
+
if crisis in CRISIS_INSIGHTS:
|
| 399 |
+
for s, txt in CRISIS_INSIGHTS[crisis].items():
|
| 400 |
+
ins.append(f"- **{s}**: {txt}")
|
| 401 |
+
insights_md = "\n".join(ins)
|
| 402 |
+
|
| 403 |
+
# --- 8. Generate Outputs (Insights & Pie Chart) ---
|
| 404 |
+
ins = [
|
| 405 |
+
f"### Insights for: {crisis}",
|
| 406 |
+
f"_{CRISIS_SUMMARY.get(crisis, 'No summary available.')}_",
|
| 407 |
+
]
|
| 408 |
+
if crisis in CRISIS_INSIGHTS:
|
| 409 |
+
for s, txt in CRISIS_INSIGHTS[crisis].items():
|
| 410 |
+
ins.append(f"- **{s}**: {txt}")
|
| 411 |
+
insights_md = "\n".join(ins)
|
| 412 |
+
|
| 413 |
+
# --- 8. Generate Outputs (Insights & Pie Chart) ---
|
| 414 |
+
ins = [
|
| 415 |
+
f"### Insights for: {crisis}",
|
| 416 |
+
f"_{CRISIS_SUMMARY.get(crisis, 'No summary available.')}_",
|
| 417 |
+
]
|
| 418 |
+
if crisis in CRISIS_INSIGHTS:
|
| 419 |
+
for s, txt in CRISIS_INSIGHTS[crisis].items():
|
| 420 |
+
ins.append(f"- **{s}**: {txt}")
|
| 421 |
+
insights_md = "\n".join(ins)
|
| 422 |
+
|
| 423 |
+
# --- Pie chart: final portfolio weights (including ETF if added) ---
|
| 424 |
+
pie_df = df[["Ticker", "Weight"]].copy()
|
| 425 |
+
pie_df["Ticker"] = pie_df["Ticker"].astype(str)
|
| 426 |
+
pie_df["Weight"] = pd.to_numeric(pie_df["Weight"], errors="raise")
|
| 427 |
+
|
| 428 |
+
wsum = pie_df["Weight"].sum()
|
| 429 |
+
if wsum <= 0:
|
| 430 |
+
raise ValueError(f"Pie chart error: portfolio weights sum to {wsum}.")
|
| 431 |
+
pie_df["Weight"] = pie_df["Weight"] / wsum
|
| 432 |
+
|
| 433 |
+
print("DEBUG pie_df for pie chart:\n", pie_df)
|
| 434 |
+
print("DEBUG weight sum:", pie_df["Weight"].sum())
|
| 435 |
+
|
| 436 |
+
# Matplotlib pie chart
|
| 437 |
+
fig_pie, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(4, 4))
|
| 438 |
+
ax.pie(
|
| 439 |
+
pie_df["Weight"].values,
|
| 440 |
+
labels=pie_df["Ticker"].values,
|
| 441 |
+
autopct="%1.1f%%",
|
| 442 |
+
startangle=90,
|
| 443 |
+
)
|
| 444 |
+
ax.set_title("Final Portfolio Allocation")
|
| 445 |
+
ax.axis("equal")
|
| 446 |
+
|
| 447 |
+
# --- 9. Logs & AI Insights ---
|
| 448 |
+
log_message = f"✅ Simulation Complete. Received weights: '{weights_str}'"
|
| 449 |
+
|
| 450 |
+
gemini_insights = generate_gemini_insights(
|
| 451 |
+
api_key=gemini_api_key or "",
|
| 452 |
+
crisis_name=crisis,
|
| 453 |
+
metrics_md=metrics_md,
|
| 454 |
+
extra_instructions=gemini_extra_prompt or "",
|
| 455 |
+
)
|
| 456 |
+
|
| 457 |
+
return fig, metrics_md, sec_fig, insights_md, fig_pie, log_message, gemini_insights
|
| 458 |
+
|
requirements.txt
ADDED
|
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
pandas
|
| 2 |
+
numpy
|
| 3 |
+
yfinance
|
| 4 |
+
plotly
|
| 5 |
+
gradio
|
| 6 |
+
matplotlib
|
| 7 |
+
google-generativeai
|