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Update scripts/app.py

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  1. scripts/app.py +216 -496
scripts/app.py CHANGED
@@ -10,395 +10,232 @@ import os
10
  import sys
11
  import json
12
  import torch
13
- from fetch_market_data import fetch_market_data, ASSETS, FRED_IDS
14
- from llm_analysis_rag import analyze_agent_decision, analyze_historical_segment
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
15
  from stable_baselines3 import SAC
16
- from environment import PortfolioEnv
17
  from scripts.evaluate_baselines import buy_and_hold, equally_weighted_rebalanced
18
 
19
  # --- Configuration ---
20
- MODEL_PATH = os.path.join("checkpoints", "sac_portfolio_model.zip")
21
  WINDOW_SIZE = 30
22
  MACRO_COLS = list(FRED_IDS.values())
23
- DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH = os.path.join("data", "historical_dashboard_data.csv")
24
-
25
- # *** UPDATE THESE DATES TO MATCH YOUR ACTUAL TRAINING PERIOD ***
26
  TRAIN_START_DATE = "2015-01-01"
27
  TRAIN_END_DATE = "2023-01-01"
28
-
29
- # Global variable for dashboard data needed for Tabs 3 & 4
30
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF = None
31
 
32
- # Define Time Period mappings for the dropdown
33
  TIME_PERIODS = {
34
- "6 Months": 180,
35
- "1 Year": 365,
36
- "2 Years": 730,
37
- "5 Years": 1825,
38
- "Max Available": 9999 # Sentinel value for max
39
  }
40
 
41
- # =========================================
42
- # Initialization Functions
43
- # =========================================
44
-
45
  def initialize_dashboard_data():
46
- """Fetches and loads historical data at startup for Tabs 3 & 4."""
47
  global DASHBOARD_DATA_DF
48
- print("--- Initializing Historical Data for Analyst/Simulation Tabs ---")
49
-
50
- # Fetching last 6 years to support longer analysis periods and simulation
51
  end_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
52
  start_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=365*6)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
53
 
54
- print(f"Fetching historical data from {start_date} to {end_date}...")
55
- # This might take a minute on first run
56
  fetch_market_data(start_date, end_date, DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH)
57
 
58
  if os.path.exists(DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH):
59
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF = pd.read_csv(DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH, index_col=0, parse_dates=True)
60
- # Basic cleaning
61
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.dropna(how='all', inplace=True)
62
- # Calculate equal weight return for dashboard metrics
63
  asset_cols = [c for c in ASSETS if c in DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.columns]
64
  if asset_cols:
65
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF['Daily_Ret_Eq'] = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF[asset_cols].pct_change().mean(axis=1)
66
- print(f"Data loaded successfully. Shape: {DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.shape}")
67
- print(f"Data range: {DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.min().date()} to {DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.max().date()}")
68
  else:
69
- print("โŒ Failed to initialize historical data.")
70
 
71
- # Initialize data at startup
72
  try:
 
73
  initialize_dashboard_data()
74
  except Exception as e:
75
- print(f"Warning: Data initialization failed. Error: {e}")
76
-
77
-
78
- # =========================================
79
- # Professional Metrics & Evaluation Functions
80
- # =========================================
81
 
 
82
  def evaluate_agent_pro(env, model):
83
- """
84
- Runs the trained agent on the environment and returns portfolio values.
85
- """
86
  obs, info = env.reset()
87
  terminated, truncated = False, False
88
- portfolio_values = [env.initial_amount]
89
-
90
  while not (terminated or truncated):
91
  action, _states = model.predict(obs, deterministic=True)
92
  obs, reward, terminated, truncated, info = env.step(action)
93
  portfolio_values.append(info['portfolio_value'])
94
-
95
- # Align index with the actual steps taken
96
  valid_dates = env.df.index[env.window_size-1:]
97
  return pd.Series(portfolio_values, index=valid_dates[:len(portfolio_values)])
98
 
99
  def calculate_metrics_pro(portfolio_values, freq=252, rf=0.0):
100
- """
101
- Calculates key professional performance metrics from a series of portfolio values.
102
- """
103
- if len(portfolio_values) < 2:
104
- return {k: "N/A" for k in ["Total Return", "CAGR", "Sharpe Ratio", "Sortino Ratio", "Volatility", "Max Drawdown", "Calmar Ratio"]}
105
-
106
  returns = portfolio_values.pct_change().dropna()
107
- if returns.empty:
108
- return {k: "0.00%" if "%" in k else "0.00" for k in ["Total Return", "CAGR", "Sharpe Ratio", "Sortino Ratio", "Volatility", "Max Drawdown", "Calmar Ratio"]}
109
 
110
  total_return = (portfolio_values.iloc[-1] / portfolio_values.iloc[0]) - 1
111
  num_years = (len(portfolio_values) - 1) / freq
112
  cagr = (portfolio_values.iloc[-1] / portfolio_values.iloc[0]) ** (1/num_years) - 1 if num_years > 0 else 0.0
113
-
114
- sharpe_ratio = np.sqrt(freq) * (returns.mean() - rf) / returns.std() if returns.std() > 0 else np.nan
115
-
116
  downside_returns = returns[returns < 0]
117
- downside_std = downside_returns.std()
118
- sortino_ratio = np.sqrt(freq) * (returns.mean() - rf) / downside_std if downside_std > 0 else np.nan
119
-
120
  volatility = returns.std() * np.sqrt(freq)
121
-
122
- rolling_max = portfolio_values.cummax()
123
- drawdown = portfolio_values / rolling_max - 1.0
124
- max_drawdown = drawdown.min()
125
-
126
- calmar_ratio = cagr / abs(max_drawdown) if max_drawdown != 0 and cagr != 0 else np.nan
127
 
128
  return {
129
- "Total Return": total_return,
130
- "CAGR": cagr,
131
- "Sharpe Ratio": sharpe_ratio,
132
- "Sortino Ratio": sortino_ratio,
133
- "Volatility": volatility,
134
- "Max Drawdown": max_drawdown,
135
  "Calmar Ratio": calmar_ratio
136
  }
137
 
138
- # =========================================
139
- # XAI: Feature Importance Function
140
- # =========================================
141
  def calculate_feature_importance(model, obs):
142
- """
143
- Calculates feature importance using Integrated Gradients on the RL agent's policy network.
144
- """
145
- # Convert observation to torch tensor and enable gradient tracking
146
  obs_tensor = torch.as_tensor(obs, dtype=torch.float32, device=model.device)
 
147
  obs_tensor.requires_grad_()
148
-
149
- # Get the policy network (actor)
150
  actor = model.policy.actor
151
-
152
- # Define a baseline (e.g., a zero observation)
153
  baseline = torch.zeros_like(obs_tensor)
154
-
155
- # Number of steps for integral approximation
156
  steps = 50
157
-
158
- # Generate scaled inputs along the path from baseline to input
159
  scaled_inputs = [baseline + (float(i) / steps) * (obs_tensor - baseline) for i in range(steps + 1)]
160
 
161
  grads = []
162
  for scaled_input in scaled_inputs:
163
- # Forward pass to get action distribution parameters (mean)
164
  action_mean = actor(scaled_input)
165
-
166
- # We need a scalar output to calculate gradients against.
167
- # Here we sum, representing overall sensitivity of the action vector.
168
  target_output = action_mean.sum()
169
-
170
- # Calculate gradients of the target output with respect to the input features
171
  grad = torch.autograd.grad(outputs=target_output, inputs=scaled_input)[0]
172
  grads.append(grad)
173
 
174
- # Average the gradients using the trapezoidal rule approximation
175
- avg_grads = (grads[:-1] + grads[1:]) / 2.0
176
- avg_grads = torch.stack(avg_grads).mean(dim=0)
 
 
177
 
178
- # Calculate Integrated Gradients: (input - baseline) * average_gradients
179
  integrated_grads = (obs_tensor - baseline) * avg_grads
180
-
181
- # Detach, move to cpu, and convert to numpy array
182
  importance_scores = integrated_grads.detach().cpu().numpy().flatten()
183
 
184
- # Feature Names mapping
185
- num_assets = len(ASSETS)
186
- num_macro = len(MACRO_COLS)
187
-
188
- # Create feature names based on the observation structure
189
  feature_names = []
190
  for i in range(WINDOW_SIZE):
191
- for asset in ASSETS:
192
- feature_names.append(f"{asset}_t-{WINDOW_SIZE-1-i}")
193
  for i in range(WINDOW_SIZE):
194
- for macro in MACRO_COLS:
195
- feature_names.append(f"{macro}_t-{WINDOW_SIZE-1-i}")
196
 
197
- # Combine into a dictionary and sort by absolute importance
198
  feature_importance_dict = dict(zip(feature_names, importance_scores))
199
-
200
- # Aggregate importance by feature type (sum of absolute values across time steps)
201
  aggregated_importance = {}
202
  for base_feature in ASSETS + MACRO_COLS:
203
  total_imp = sum(abs(val) for key, val in feature_importance_dict.items() if key.startswith(base_feature))
204
  aggregated_importance[base_feature] = total_imp
205
 
206
- # Sort and take top N for display
207
  top_features = dict(sorted(aggregated_importance.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)[:8])
208
 
209
- # Create a Plotly bar chart
210
- fig = px.bar(
211
- x=list(top_features.values()),
212
- y=list(top_features.keys()),
213
- orientation='h',
214
- title="Top Influential Features (XAI)",
215
- labels={'x': 'Relative Importance Score', 'y': 'Feature'},
216
- color=list(top_features.values()),
217
- color_continuous_scale=px.colors.sequential.Viridis
218
- )
219
- fig.update_layout(
220
- template="plotly_dark",
221
- paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)',
222
- plot_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)',
223
- yaxis={'categoryorder':'total ascending'},
224
- coloraxis_showscale=False,
225
- margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=40, b=10),
226
- height=300 # Keep it compact
227
- )
228
-
229
  return fig
230
 
231
- # =========================================
232
- # Tab 4 Logic: Historical Simulation (UPDATED)
233
- # =========================================
234
-
235
  def run_historical_simulation(start_date_str, end_date_str):
236
- """
237
- Runs the RL agent on historical data and compares to baselines using professional metrics.
238
- """
239
- if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None:
240
- return go.Figure(), "Data not initialized. Please restart app.", gr.update(visible=False)
241
-
242
- status_msg = "Preparing simulation..."
243
- yield go.Figure(), status_msg, gr.update(visible=False)
244
-
245
  try:
246
- # 1. Validate and Slice Data
247
- try:
248
- start_date = pd.to_datetime(start_date_str)
249
- end_date = pd.to_datetime(end_date_str)
250
- except ValueError:
251
- yield go.Figure(), "Error: Invalid date format. Use YYYY-MM-DD.", gr.update(visible=False)
252
- return
253
-
254
  if start_date < DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.min() or end_date > DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.max():
255
- avail_start = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.min().date()
256
- avail_end = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.max().date()
257
- yield go.Figure(), f"Error: Selected dates outside available range ({avail_start} to {avail_end}).", gr.update(visible=False)
258
- return
259
-
260
  df_slice = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.loc[start_date:end_date].copy()
261
  asset_cols_only = [c for c in ASSETS if c in df_slice.columns]
262
 
263
- if len(df_slice) < WINDOW_SIZE + 10:
264
- yield go.Figure(), "Error: Time period too short for simulation.", gr.update(visible=False)
265
- return
266
-
267
- # 2. Setup Environment and Agent
268
- status_msg = "Running RL Agent simulation..."
269
- yield go.Figure(), status_msg, gr.update(visible=False)
270
-
271
- env = PortfolioEnv(df_slice, WINDOW_SIZE, initial_amount=10000)
272
-
273
- if not os.path.exists(MODEL_PATH):
274
- raise FileNotFoundError(f"Model not found: {MODEL_PATH}")
275
  model = SAC.load(MODEL_PATH)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
276
 
277
- # 3. Run Simulation Loop & Get Values using Pro Function
278
- rl_portfolio_series = evaluate_agent_pro(env, model)
279
-
280
- # 4. Calculate Baselines using Pro Functions
281
- status_msg = "Calculating baselines and metrics..."
282
- yield go.Figure(), status_msg, gr.update(visible=False)
283
-
284
- # Pass only asset columns to baseline functions
285
- bnh_portfolio_series = buy_and_hold(df_slice[asset_cols_only], initial_amount=10000)
286
- # Realign B&H index to match RL agent's start date
287
- bnh_portfolio_series = bnh_portfolio_series.loc[rl_portfolio_series.index[0]:]
288
- # Normalize B&H starting value to match RL agent's start
289
- bnh_portfolio_series = bnh_portfolio_series / bnh_portfolio_series.iloc[0] * 10000
290
-
291
- eq_portfolio_series = equally_weighted_rebalanced(df_slice[asset_cols_only], initial_amount=10000)
292
- eq_portfolio_series = eq_portfolio_series.loc[rl_portfolio_series.index[0]:]
293
- eq_portfolio_series = eq_portfolio_series / eq_portfolio_series.iloc[0] * 10000
294
-
295
- # 5. Generate Plot
296
  fig = go.Figure()
297
- fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rl_portfolio_series.index, y=rl_portfolio_series, mode='lines', name='RL Agent (SAC)', line=dict(color='#10b981', width=3)))
298
- fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bnh_portfolio_series.index, y=bnh_portfolio_series, mode='lines', name='Buy & Hold (SPY)', line=dict(color='#6b7280', dash='dash')))
299
- fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=eq_portfolio_series.index, y=eq_portfolio_series, mode='lines', name='Equal Weighted', line=dict(color='#a855f7', dash='dot')))
 
 
 
 
 
300
 
301
- fig.update_layout(
302
- title="Simulation: Strategy Performance Comparison ($10k Start)",
303
- xaxis_title="Date",
304
- yaxis_title="Portfolio Value ($)",
305
- template="plotly_dark",
306
- paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)',
307
- plot_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)',
308
- hovermode="x unified",
309
- legend=dict(orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02, xanchor="right", x=1)
310
- )
311
-
312
- # 6. Calculate Professional Metrics Table
313
- rl_m = calculate_metrics_pro(rl_portfolio_series)
314
- bnh_m = calculate_metrics_pro(bnh_portfolio_series)
315
- eq_m = calculate_metrics_pro(eq_portfolio_series)
316
-
317
- # Helper to format based on metric type
318
- def fmt(val, is_pct=True):
319
- if pd.isna(val): return "N/A"
320
- return f"{val:.2%}" if is_pct else f"{val:.2f}"
321
-
322
- metrics_data = {
323
- "Metric": ["Total Return", "CAGR", "Sharpe Ratio", "Sortino Ratio", "Volatility (Ann.)", "Max Drawdown", "Calmar Ratio"],
324
- "RL Agent (SAC)": [fmt(rl_m["Total Return"]), fmt(rl_m["CAGR"]), fmt(rl_m["Sharpe Ratio"], False), fmt(rl_m["Sortino Ratio"], False), fmt(rl_m["Volatility"]), fmt(rl_m["Max Drawdown"]), fmt(rl_m["Calmar Ratio"], False)],
325
- "Buy & Hold (SPY)": [fmt(bnh_m["Total Return"]), fmt(bnh_m["CAGR"]), fmt(bnh_m["Sharpe Ratio"], False), fmt(bnh_m["Sortino Ratio"], False), fmt(bnh_m["Volatility"]), fmt(bnh_m["Max Drawdown"]), fmt(bnh_m["Calmar Ratio"], False)],
326
- "Equal Weighted": [fmt(eq_m["Total Return"]), fmt(eq_m["CAGR"]), fmt(eq_m["Sharpe Ratio"], False), fmt(eq_m["Sortino Ratio"], False), fmt(eq_m["Volatility"]), fmt(eq_m["Max Drawdown"]), fmt(eq_m["Calmar Ratio"], False)],
327
  }
328
- metrics_df = pd.DataFrame(metrics_data)
329
-
330
- # Format the dataframe as a markdown table for cleaner display
331
- metrics_md = metrics_df.to_markdown(index=False)
332
- final_metrics_display = f"### ๐Ÿ“Š Professional Performance Metrics\n\n{metrics_md}"
333
-
334
- yield fig, "Simulation Complete.", final_metrics_display
335
-
336
  except Exception as e:
337
- import traceback
338
- traceback.print_exc()
339
- yield go.Figure(), f"Error during simulation: {str(e)}", gr.update(visible=False)
340
-
341
-
342
- # =========================================
343
- # Tab 3 Logic: Historical Data Analyst
344
- # =========================================
345
-
346
- def run_historical_analysis(selected_assets, period_name):
347
- """Backend for Tab 3."""
348
- if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None or not selected_assets:
349
- return go.Figure(), "Please wait for data initialization or select assets."
350
-
351
- status_html = """<div style="color: #9ca3af;">๐Ÿ”„ Processing data and running AI analysis...</div>"""
352
- yield go.Figure(), status_html
353
 
 
 
 
354
  try:
355
- # 1. Filter Data by Time Period
356
- days = TIME_PERIODS.get(period_name, 365)
357
- cutoff_date = datetime.now() - timedelta(days=days)
358
- valid_assets = [a for a in selected_assets if a in DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.columns]
359
- if not valid_assets:
360
- yield go.Figure(), "Error: Selected assets not found in available data."
361
- return
362
- df_filtered = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.loc[cutoff_date:, valid_assets].copy()
363
- if df_filtered.empty:
364
- yield go.Figure(), f"No data found for the selected period: {period_name}"
365
- return
366
-
367
- # 2. Generate Normalized Price Plot
368
- df_normalized = df_filtered / df_filtered.iloc[0] * 100
369
- fig = px.line(df_normalized, x=df_normalized.index, y=df_normalized.columns,
370
- title=f"Performance Comparison: {period_name} (Base=100)",
371
- color_discrete_sequence=px.colors.qualitative.Bold)
372
- fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', plot_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)',
373
- yaxis_title="Normalized Price", xaxis_title="Date", legend_title_text="", hovermode="x unified")
374
 
375
- # 3. Run AI Analysis
376
- analysis_text = analyze_historical_segment(df_filtered, valid_assets, period_name)
377
- formatted_analysis = f"### ๐Ÿค– AI Analyst Report: {period_name}\n\n{analysis_text}"
378
- yield fig, formatted_analysis
379
-
 
 
 
380
  except Exception as e:
381
- import traceback
382
- traceback.print_exc()
383
- yield go.Figure(), f"### Error during analysis\n\n{str(e)}"
384
-
385
 
386
- # =========================================
387
- # Tab 2 Logic: Forecast & Analysis (XAI)
388
- # =========================================
389
-
390
- def get_latest_data_window(window_size=30):
391
- """Fetches latest data needed for prediction."""
392
  print("Fetching prediction data...")
393
- lookback_days = window_size + 150
394
- end_date = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
395
- start_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=lookback_days)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
396
- temp_filename = os.path.join("data", "temp_gradio_prediction_data.csv")
397
- fetch_market_data(start_date, end_date, temp_filename)
398
- if not os.path.exists(temp_filename): raise Exception("Failed to fetch market data file.")
399
- df = pd.read_csv(temp_filename, index_col=0, parse_dates=True)
400
  df.dropna(inplace=True)
401
- if len(df) < window_size: raise Exception(f"Not enough clean data fetched for prediction.")
402
  return df.iloc[-window_size:].copy()
403
 
404
  def prepare_observation(data_window):
@@ -407,258 +244,141 @@ def prepare_observation(data_window):
407
  norm_prices = price_data / (price_data[0] + 1e-8)
408
  norm_macro = macro_data / (macro_data[0] + 1e-8)
409
  obs = np.concatenate([norm_prices, norm_macro], axis=1)
410
- # Return both flattened obs for model and raw obs for XAI
 
411
  return obs.flatten().astype(np.float32), obs.astype(np.float32), data_window
412
 
413
  def predict_and_analyze():
414
- """Main function for Forecast Tab."""
415
- status_msg = "Starting process..."
416
- loading_html = """<div style="color: #9ca3af;">๐Ÿ”„ Fetching data & running prediction...</div>"""
417
- # Update to yield an empty plot for the XAI chart initially
418
- yield status_msg, None, go.Figure(), loading_html
419
-
420
  try:
421
- data_window = get_latest_data_window(WINDOW_SIZE)
422
- # Get flattened obs for prediction and raw obs for XAI
423
  flat_obs, raw_obs, df_window_for_analyst = prepare_observation(data_window)
424
 
425
- if not os.path.exists(MODEL_PATH): raise FileNotFoundError(f"Model not found: {MODEL_PATH}")
426
  model = SAC.load(MODEL_PATH)
427
 
428
- # --- XAI: Calculate Feature Importance ---
429
- status_msg = "Calculating feature importance..."
430
- yield status_msg, None, go.Figure(), loading_html
431
- xai_plot = calculate_feature_importance(model, raw_obs)
432
 
433
- # --- Prediction ---
434
  action, _ = model.predict(flat_obs, deterministic=True)
435
- exp_action = np.exp(np.asarray(action).flatten())
436
- weights = exp_action / np.sum(exp_action)
437
- allocations_dict = {asset: weights[i] for i, asset in enumerate(ASSETS)}
438
- allocations_dict['Cash'] = weights[-1]
439
- alloc_df = pd.DataFrame(list(allocations_dict.items()), columns=['Asset', 'Proposed Allocation'])
440
- alloc_df['Proposed Allocation'] = alloc_df['Proposed Allocation'].apply(lambda x: f"{x:.2%}")
441
-
442
- status_msg = "Prediction done. Running AI Risk Analysis..."
443
- analysing_html = """<div style="color: #9ca3af;">๐Ÿค– Running Qwen-2.5-3B Risk Analysis...</div>"""
444
- # Yield XAI plot along with other outputs
445
- yield status_msg, alloc_df, xai_plot, analysing_html
446
-
447
- allocations_for_llm = {k: float(v) for k, v in allocations_dict.items()}
448
- analysis_result = analyze_agent_decision(df_window_for_analyst, allocations_for_llm)
449
- status_msg = "Analysis complete!"
450
-
451
- if isinstance(analysis_result, dict):
452
- strat = analysis_result.get('strategy_summary', 'N/A')
453
- risk = analysis_result.get('risk_level', 'N/A').upper()
454
- just = analysis_result.get('justification', 'N/A')
455
- conf = analysis_result.get('confidence_score', 'N/A')
456
- if 'HIGH' in risk:
457
- risk_css = "color: #ef4444; font-weight: bold;"
458
- status_bg = "#7f1d1d"
459
- status_border = "#ef4444"
460
- status_icon = "โ›”"
461
- status_text = "TRADE BLOCKED: High Risk Detected"
462
- else:
463
- risk_css = "color: #10b981; font-weight: bold;"
464
- status_bg = "#064e3b"
465
- status_border = "#10b981"
466
- status_icon = "๐Ÿš€"
467
- status_text = "TRADE APPROVED"
468
-
469
- report_html = f"""
470
- <div style="background-color: #1f2937; padding: 20px; border-radius: 12px 12px 0 0; border: 1px solid #374151; border-bottom: none;">
471
- <h3 style="margin-top: 0; color: #e5e7eb;">๐Ÿค– AI Risk Analyst Report</h3>
472
- <div style="margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: #9ca3af;">Strategy:</strong><br><span style="color: #d1d5db;">{strat}</span></div>
473
- <div style="margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: #9ca3af;">Risk Level:</strong><span style="margin-left: 8px; {risk_css}">{risk}</span></div>
474
- <div style="margin-bottom: 15px;"><strong style="color: #9ca3af;">Justification:</strong><br><span style="color: #d1d5db;">{just}</span></div>
475
- <div><strong style="color: #9ca3af;">Confidence:</strong> <span style="color: #d1d5db;">{conf}/10</span></div>
476
- </div>
477
- <div style="background-color: {status_bg}; color: white; padding: 15px; border-radius: 0 0 12px 12px; border: 2px solid {status_border}; text-align: center; font-size: 1.2em; font-weight: bold; display: flex; align-items: center; justify-content: center;">
478
- <span style="margin-right: 10px; font-size: 1.4em;">{status_icon}</span>{status_text}
479
- </div>"""
480
  else:
481
- report_html = f"""<div style="padding: 20px; background-color: #7f1d1d; color: #fca5a5; border-radius: 12px;"><h3>โŒ Analysis Failed to Parse</h3><p>{str(analysis_result)}</p></div>"""
482
- # Final yield with all outputs including XAI plot
483
- yield status_msg, alloc_df, xai_plot, report_html
484
  except Exception as e:
485
  import traceback
486
  traceback.print_exc()
487
- status_msg = f"Error: {str(e)}"
488
- error_html = f"""<div style="padding: 20px; background-color: #7f1d1d; color: #fca5a5; border-radius: 12px;"><h3>โŒ Process Error</h3><p>{str(e)}</p></div>"""
489
- # Final yield in case of error
490
- yield status_msg, None, go.Figure(), error_html
491
-
492
-
493
- # =========================================
494
- # Tab 1 Logic: Live Dashboard (DUMMY DATA)
495
- # =========================================
496
- def get_dashboard_metrics():
497
- return "$135,400", "+3.07%"
498
-
499
- def get_portfolio_history_plot():
500
- dates = pd.date_range(start="2023-01-01", periods=100)
501
- np.random.seed(42)
502
- rl_returns = np.random.normal(0.001, 0.01, 100)
503
- bnh_returns = np.random.normal(0.0005, 0.012, 100)
504
- rl_value = 10000 * np.cumprod(1 + rl_returns)
505
- bnh_value = 10000 * np.cumprod(1 + bnh_returns)
506
- fig = go.Figure()
507
- fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=dates, y=rl_value, mode='lines', name='RL Agent (Live)', line=dict(color='#10b981', width=3)))
508
- fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=dates, y=bnh_value, mode='lines', name='Benchmark', line=dict(color='#6b7280', dash='dash')))
509
- fig.update_layout(title="Portfolio Net Worth (Live Tracking)", xaxis_title="Date", yaxis_title="Net Worth ($)", template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', plot_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', legend=dict(orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02, xanchor="right", x=1))
510
  return fig
511
 
512
- def get_current_allocation_plot():
513
- labels = ASSETS + ['Cash']
514
- values = [0.25, 0.10, 0.30, 0.15, 0.05, 0.15]
515
- fig = px.pie(values=values, names=labels, title="Current Holdings Breakdown", color_discrete_sequence=px.colors.qualitative.Bold)
516
- fig.update_traces(textposition='inside', textinfo='percent+label', hole=.4)
517
- fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', legend=dict(orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=-0.1))
518
  return fig
519
 
520
- def get_recent_transactions():
521
- data = [["2025-11-24", "Rebalance", "MULTIPLE", "N/A"], ["2025-11-24", "SELL", "SPY", "$4,500"], ["2025-11-24", "BUY", "TLT", "$4,200"], ["2025-11-21", "BUY", "BTC-USD", "$1,000"]]
522
- return pd.DataFrame(data, columns=["Date", "Type", "Asset", "Approx. Value"])
523
-
524
-
525
- # =========================================
526
- # Gradio Interface
527
- # =========================================
528
 
 
529
  custom_css = """
530
  .metric-box { background-color: #1f2937; padding: 20px; border-radius: 12px; border: 1px solid #374151; text-align: center; }
531
- .metric-label { font-size: 1.1em; color: #9ca3af; margin-bottom: 5px; }
532
  .metric-value { font-size: 2.2em; font-weight: 700; color: #e5e7eb; }
533
- .disclaimer-box { background-color: #374151; padding: 15px; border-radius: 8px; border-left: 4px solid #f59e0b; color: #d1d5db; font-size: 0.9em; margin-bottom: 20px; }
534
  """
535
 
536
- # theme = gr.themes.Soft(primary_hue="emerald", secondary_hue="slate", neutral_hue="zinc").set(
537
- # body_background_fill="#111827", block_background_fill="#1f2937", block_border_width="1px", block_border_color="#374151"
538
- # )
539
-
540
- with gr.Blocks(
541
- # theme=theme, css=custom_css,
542
- title="Deep RL Portfolio Manager") as demo:
543
- gr.HTML("""<script>function forceDark(){document.body.classList.add('dark');} forceDark(); setTimeout(forceDark, 500);</script>""")
544
-
545
  gr.Markdown("# ๐Ÿง  Deep RL & LLM Portfolio Manager")
546
 
547
  with gr.Tabs():
548
- # ================= TAB 1: DASHBOARD (RESTORED) =================
549
- with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ“Š Live Dashboard"):
550
- # Metrics Row
551
  with gr.Row():
552
- # MOVED THIS LINE INSIDE THE TAB
553
- nw_val, dc_val = get_dashboard_metrics()
554
- with gr.Column(elem_classes=["metric-box"]):
555
- gr.HTML(f"<div class='metric-label'>Current Net Worth</div><div class='metric-value'>{nw_val}</div>")
556
- with gr.Column(elem_classes=["metric-box"]):
557
- gr.HTML(f"<div class='metric-label'>24h Change</div><div class='metric-value' style='color: #10b981;'>{dc_val}</div>")
558
-
559
- # Main Chart row
560
  with gr.Row():
561
- with gr.Column(scale=3):
562
- history_chart = gr.Plot(value=get_portfolio_history_plot(), label="Net Worth History")
563
-
564
- # Bottom Row: Allocations and Transactions
565
  with gr.Row():
566
- with gr.Column(scale=1):
567
- allocation_chart = gr.Plot(value=get_current_allocation_plot(), label="Current Allocation")
568
- with gr.Column(scale=2):
569
- gr.Markdown("### Recent Transactions")
570
- transactions_table = gr.Dataframe(value=get_recent_transactions(), interactive=False, wrap=True)
571
-
572
- # ================= TAB 2: FORECAST (UPDATED with XAI) =================
573
- with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ”ฎ Forecast & AI Analysis"):
574
- gr.Markdown("### Generate Tomorrow's Portfolio Strategy")
575
- run_btn = gr.Button("๐Ÿš€ Run Overnight Analysis", variant="primary", size="lg")
576
- status_output = gr.Textbox(label="System Status", placeholder="Ready...", interactive=False, lines=1)
577
- gr.Markdown("---")
578
-
579
  with gr.Row():
580
- # Left Column: Allocations & XAI Plot
581
  with gr.Column(scale=2):
582
- gr.Markdown("### ๐Ÿ“ˆ Suggested Position")
583
- allocation_output = gr.Dataframe(headers=["Asset", "Allocation"], datatype=["str", "str"], interactive=False)
584
-
585
- # NEW: XAI Feature Importance Plot
586
- gr.Markdown("### ๐Ÿง  Why did the agent choose this?")
587
- xai_output_plot = gr.Plot(label="Top Influential Factors (XAI)", show_label=False)
588
-
589
- # Right Column: AI Analysis Report
590
  with gr.Column(scale=3):
591
- analysis_report_html = gr.HTML(label="AI Risk Analysis Report")
592
-
593
- # Updated click event with new XAI output
594
- run_btn.click(
595
- fn=predict_and_analyze,
596
- inputs=None,
597
- outputs=[status_output, allocation_output, xai_output_plot, analysis_report_html]
598
- )
599
-
600
- # ================= TAB 3: HISTORICAL DATA ANALYST =================
601
- with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ“… Historical Data Analyst"):
602
- gr.Markdown("### Analyze Past Market Performance with AI")
603
-
604
- with gr.Row():
605
- with gr.Column(scale=1):
606
- all_tickers_hist = ASSETS + list(FRED_IDS.values())
607
- if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is not None:
608
- available_tickers_hist = [t for t in all_tickers_hist if t in DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.columns]
609
- else:
610
- available_tickers_hist = []
611
- default_tickers_hist = available_tickers_hist[:3] if available_tickers_hist else []
612
-
613
- asset_selector = gr.Dropdown(choices=available_tickers_hist, value=default_tickers_hist, multiselect=True, label="1. Select Assets")
614
- period_selector = gr.Dropdown(choices=list(TIME_PERIODS.keys()), value="1 Year", label="2. Select Period")
615
- analyze_btn = gr.Button("๐Ÿ”Ž Run Analysis", variant="primary")
616
-
617
- with gr.Column(scale=3):
618
- historical_plot = gr.Plot(label="Performance Plot")
619
-
620
- gr.Markdown("---")
621
- historical_analysis_md = gr.Markdown("### ๐Ÿค– AI Analyst Report\n\n*Click 'Run Analysis' to generate.*")
622
-
623
- analyze_btn.click(
624
- fn=run_historical_analysis,
625
- inputs=[asset_selector, period_selector],
626
- outputs=[historical_plot, historical_analysis_md]
627
- )
628
-
629
- # ================= TAB 4: HISTORICAL SIMULATION (UPDATED with Pro Metrics) =================
630
- with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ”™ Historical Simulation"):
631
- gr.Markdown("### Backtest the RL Agent against Baselines")
632
-
633
- # Disclaimer Box
634
- gr.HTML(f"""
635
- <div class='disclaimer-box'>
636
- <strong>โš ๏ธ IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:</strong> The RL model was trained on data from approximately
637
- <strong>{TRAIN_START_DATE} to {TRAIN_END_DATE}</strong>. Running simulations outside or overlapping significantly
638
- with this period may not accurately reflect real-world performance (lookahead bias or out-of-distribution data).
639
- Use for educational purposes only.
640
- </div>
641
- """)
642
 
 
643
  with gr.Row():
644
  with gr.Column(scale=1):
645
- start_date_input = gr.Textbox(label="Start Date (YYYY-MM-DD)", value=(datetime.now() - timedelta(days=365)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d'))
646
- end_date_input = gr.Textbox(label="End Date (YYYY-MM-DD)", value=(datetime.now() - timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d'))
647
- sim_btn = gr.Button("โ–ถ๏ธ Run Simulation", variant="primary")
648
- sim_status = gr.Textbox(label="Status", interactive=False, lines=1)
649
-
650
  with gr.Column(scale=3):
651
- sim_plot = gr.Plot(label="Simulation Performance")
 
 
652
 
653
- gr.Markdown("---")
654
- # Updated to Markdown component for better table formatting
655
- sim_metrics_md = gr.Markdown("### ๐Ÿ“Š Professional Performance Metrics\n\n*Run simulation to see metrics.*")
656
-
657
- sim_btn.click(
658
- fn=run_historical_simulation,
659
- inputs=[start_date_input, end_date_input],
660
- outputs=[sim_plot, sim_status, sim_metrics_md]
661
- )
662
 
663
  if __name__ == "__main__":
664
  demo.queue().launch(server_name="0.0.0.0", server_port=7860, debug=True, share=True)
 
10
  import sys
11
  import json
12
  import torch
13
+ import shutil
14
+ import yfinance as yf
15
+
16
+ # --- Fix YFinance Cache Lock ---
17
+ try:
18
+ cache_dir = "/tmp/pytz_cache"
19
+ if os.path.exists(cache_dir): shutil.rmtree(cache_dir)
20
+ os.makedirs(cache_dir, exist_ok=True)
21
+ yf.set_tz_cache_location(cache_dir)
22
+ except: pass
23
+
24
+ # --- Add project root to sys.path ---
25
+ try:
26
+ script_dir = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
27
+ project_root = os.path.dirname(script_dir)
28
+ if project_root not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, project_root)
29
+ except NameError:
30
+ project_root = os.getcwd()
31
+ if project_root not in sys.path: sys.path.insert(0, project_root)
32
+
33
+ print(f"Project Root set to: {project_root}")
34
+
35
+ # --- Imports ---
36
+ from scripts.fetch_market_data import fetch_market_data, ASSETS, FRED_IDS
37
+ from scripts.llm_analysis_rag import analyze_agent_decision, analyze_historical_segment, setup_rag_chain, query_rag_chain
38
  from stable_baselines3 import SAC
39
+ from scripts.environment import PortfolioEnv
40
  from scripts.evaluate_baselines import buy_and_hold, equally_weighted_rebalanced
41
 
42
  # --- Configuration ---
43
+ MODEL_PATH = os.path.join(project_root, "checkpoints", "sac_portfolio_model.zip")
44
  WINDOW_SIZE = 30
45
  MACRO_COLS = list(FRED_IDS.values())
46
+ DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH = os.path.join(project_root, "data", "historical_dashboard_data.csv")
 
 
47
  TRAIN_START_DATE = "2015-01-01"
48
  TRAIN_END_DATE = "2023-01-01"
 
 
49
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF = None
50
 
 
51
  TIME_PERIODS = {
52
+ "6 Months": 180, "1 Year": 365, "2 Years": 730,
53
+ "5 Years": 1825, "Max Available": 9999
 
 
 
54
  }
55
 
56
+ # --- Initialization ---
 
 
 
57
  def initialize_dashboard_data():
 
58
  global DASHBOARD_DATA_DF
59
+ print("--- Initializing Data ---")
 
 
60
  end_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=1)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
61
  start_date = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=365*6)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
62
 
63
+ os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH), exist_ok=True)
 
64
  fetch_market_data(start_date, end_date, DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH)
65
 
66
  if os.path.exists(DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH):
67
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF = pd.read_csv(DASHBOARD_DATA_PATH, index_col=0, parse_dates=True)
 
68
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.dropna(how='all', inplace=True)
 
69
  asset_cols = [c for c in ASSETS if c in DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.columns]
70
  if asset_cols:
71
  DASHBOARD_DATA_DF['Daily_Ret_Eq'] = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF[asset_cols].pct_change().mean(axis=1)
72
+ print(f"Data loaded. Shape: {DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.shape}")
 
73
  else:
74
+ print("โŒ Failed to initialize data.")
75
 
 
76
  try:
77
+ setup_rag_chain()
78
  initialize_dashboard_data()
79
  except Exception as e:
80
+ print(f"Init Warning: {e}")
 
 
 
 
 
81
 
82
+ # --- Helper Functions ---
83
  def evaluate_agent_pro(env, model):
 
 
 
84
  obs, info = env.reset()
85
  terminated, truncated = False, False
86
+ portfolio_values = [env.initial_balance]
 
87
  while not (terminated or truncated):
88
  action, _states = model.predict(obs, deterministic=True)
89
  obs, reward, terminated, truncated, info = env.step(action)
90
  portfolio_values.append(info['portfolio_value'])
 
 
91
  valid_dates = env.df.index[env.window_size-1:]
92
  return pd.Series(portfolio_values, index=valid_dates[:len(portfolio_values)])
93
 
94
  def calculate_metrics_pro(portfolio_values, freq=252, rf=0.0):
95
+ if len(portfolio_values) < 2: return {k: "N/A" for k in ["Total Return", "CAGR", "Sharpe Ratio", "Sortino Ratio", "Volatility", "Max Drawdown", "Calmar Ratio"]}
 
 
 
 
 
96
  returns = portfolio_values.pct_change().dropna()
97
+ if returns.empty: return {k: "0.00" for k in ["Total Return", "CAGR", "Sharpe Ratio", "Sortino Ratio", "Volatility", "Max Drawdown", "Calmar Ratio"]}
 
98
 
99
  total_return = (portfolio_values.iloc[-1] / portfolio_values.iloc[0]) - 1
100
  num_years = (len(portfolio_values) - 1) / freq
101
  cagr = (portfolio_values.iloc[-1] / portfolio_values.iloc[0]) ** (1/num_years) - 1 if num_years > 0 else 0.0
102
+ sharpe_ratio = np.sqrt(freq) * (returns.mean() - rf) / returns.std() if returns.std() > 0 else 0
 
 
103
  downside_returns = returns[returns < 0]
104
+ sortino_ratio = np.sqrt(freq) * (returns.mean() - rf) / downside_returns.std() if downside_returns.std() > 0 else 0
 
 
105
  volatility = returns.std() * np.sqrt(freq)
106
+ peak = portfolio_values.cummax()
107
+ max_drawdown = ((portfolio_values - peak) / peak).min()
108
+ calmar_ratio = cagr / abs(max_drawdown) if max_drawdown != 0 else 0
 
 
 
109
 
110
  return {
111
+ "Total Return": total_return, "CAGR": cagr, "Sharpe Ratio": sharpe_ratio,
112
+ "Sortino Ratio": sortino_ratio, "Volatility": volatility, "Max Drawdown": max_drawdown,
 
 
 
 
113
  "Calmar Ratio": calmar_ratio
114
  }
115
 
 
 
 
116
  def calculate_feature_importance(model, obs):
 
 
 
 
117
  obs_tensor = torch.as_tensor(obs, dtype=torch.float32, device=model.device)
118
+ if obs_tensor.dim() == 1: obs_tensor = obs_tensor.unsqueeze(0)
119
  obs_tensor.requires_grad_()
120
+
 
121
  actor = model.policy.actor
 
 
122
  baseline = torch.zeros_like(obs_tensor)
 
 
123
  steps = 50
 
 
124
  scaled_inputs = [baseline + (float(i) / steps) * (obs_tensor - baseline) for i in range(steps + 1)]
125
 
126
  grads = []
127
  for scaled_input in scaled_inputs:
 
128
  action_mean = actor(scaled_input)
 
 
 
129
  target_output = action_mean.sum()
 
 
130
  grad = torch.autograd.grad(outputs=target_output, inputs=scaled_input)[0]
131
  grads.append(grad)
132
 
133
+ # --- FIX 1: Stack gradients first, then perform arithmetic ---
134
+ stacked_grads = torch.stack(grads)
135
+ avg_grads = (stacked_grads[:-1] + stacked_grads[1:]) / 2.0
136
+ avg_grads = avg_grads.mean(dim=0)
137
+ # -----------------------------------------------------------
138
 
 
139
  integrated_grads = (obs_tensor - baseline) * avg_grads
 
 
140
  importance_scores = integrated_grads.detach().cpu().numpy().flatten()
141
 
 
 
 
 
 
142
  feature_names = []
143
  for i in range(WINDOW_SIZE):
144
+ for asset in ASSETS: feature_names.append(f"{asset}_t-{WINDOW_SIZE-1-i}")
 
145
  for i in range(WINDOW_SIZE):
146
+ for macro in MACRO_COLS: feature_names.append(f"{macro}_t-{WINDOW_SIZE-1-i}")
 
147
 
 
148
  feature_importance_dict = dict(zip(feature_names, importance_scores))
 
 
149
  aggregated_importance = {}
150
  for base_feature in ASSETS + MACRO_COLS:
151
  total_imp = sum(abs(val) for key, val in feature_importance_dict.items() if key.startswith(base_feature))
152
  aggregated_importance[base_feature] = total_imp
153
 
 
154
  top_features = dict(sorted(aggregated_importance.items(), key=lambda item: item[1], reverse=True)[:8])
155
 
156
+ fig = px.bar(x=list(top_features.values()), y=list(top_features.keys()), orientation='h',
157
+ title="Top Influential Features (XAI)", labels={'x': 'Importance', 'y': 'Feature'},
158
+ color=list(top_features.values()), color_continuous_scale=px.colors.sequential.Viridis)
159
+ fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', plot_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)',
160
+ yaxis={'categoryorder':'total ascending'}, coloraxis_showscale=False, margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=40, b=10), height=300,
161
+ hoverlabel=dict(bgcolor="white", font_size=14, font_family="Roboto", font_color="black"))
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
162
  return fig
163
 
164
+ # --- Tab Functions ---
 
 
 
165
  def run_historical_simulation(start_date_str, end_date_str):
166
+ if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None: return go.Figure(), "Data not initialized.", None
167
+ yield go.Figure(), "Preparing...", None
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
168
  try:
169
+ start_date, end_date = pd.to_datetime(start_date_str), pd.to_datetime(end_date_str)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
170
  if start_date < DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.min() or end_date > DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index.max():
171
+ yield go.Figure(), "Dates out of range.", None; return
172
+
 
 
 
173
  df_slice = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.loc[start_date:end_date].copy()
174
  asset_cols_only = [c for c in ASSETS if c in df_slice.columns]
175
 
176
+ yield go.Figure(), "Running RL Agent...", None
177
+ env = PortfolioEnv(df_slice, WINDOW_SIZE, initial_balance=10000)
178
+ if not os.path.exists(MODEL_PATH): raise FileNotFoundError("Model not found")
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
179
  model = SAC.load(MODEL_PATH)
180
+ rl_vals = evaluate_agent_pro(env, model)
181
+
182
+ yield go.Figure(), "Calculating baselines...", None
183
+ bnh_vals = buy_and_hold(df_slice[asset_cols_only], initial_balance=10000).loc[rl_vals.index[0]:]
184
+ bnh_vals = bnh_vals / bnh_vals.iloc[0] * 10000
185
+ eq_vals = equally_weighted_rebalanced(df_slice[asset_cols_only], initial_balance=10000).loc[rl_vals.index[0]:]
186
+ eq_vals = eq_vals / eq_vals.iloc[0] * 10000
187
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
188
  fig = go.Figure()
189
+ fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=rl_vals.index, y=rl_vals, name='RL Agent (SAC)', line=dict(color='#10b981', width=3)))
190
+ fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=bnh_vals.index, y=bnh_vals, name='Buy & Hold (SPY)', line=dict(color='#6b7280', dash='dash')))
191
+ fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=eq_vals.index, y=eq_vals, name='Equal Weight', line=dict(color='#a855f7', dash='dot')))
192
+ fig.update_layout(title="Simulation Performance", template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', plot_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', hovermode="x unified",
193
+ legend=dict(orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02, xanchor="right", x=1), hoverlabel=dict(bgcolor="white", font_size=14, font_color="black"))
194
+
195
+ rl_m, bnh_m, eq_m = calculate_metrics_pro(rl_vals), calculate_metrics_pro(bnh_vals), calculate_metrics_pro(eq_vals)
196
+ def fmt(v, p=True): return f"{v:.2%}" if p else f"{v:.2f}"
197
 
198
+ metrics = {
199
+ "Metric": ["Return", "CAGR", "Sharpe", "Sortino", "Vol", "MaxDD", "Calmar"],
200
+ "RL Agent": [fmt(rl_m["Total Return"]), fmt(rl_m["CAGR"]), fmt(rl_m["Sharpe Ratio"],0), fmt(rl_m["Sortino Ratio"],0), fmt(rl_m["Volatility"]), fmt(rl_m["Max Drawdown"]), fmt(rl_m["Calmar Ratio"],0)],
201
+ "Buy&Hold": [fmt(bnh_m["Total Return"]), fmt(bnh_m["CAGR"]), fmt(bnh_m["Sharpe Ratio"],0), fmt(bnh_m["Sortino Ratio"],0), fmt(bnh_m["Volatility"]), fmt(bnh_m["Max Drawdown"]), fmt(bnh_m["Calmar Ratio"],0)],
202
+ "Eq Weight": [fmt(eq_m["Total Return"]), fmt(eq_m["CAGR"]), fmt(eq_m["Sharpe Ratio"],0), fmt(eq_m["Sortino Ratio"],0), fmt(eq_m["Volatility"]), fmt(eq_m["Max Drawdown"]), fmt(eq_m["Calmar Ratio"],0)]
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
203
  }
204
+ yield fig, "Complete", pd.DataFrame(metrics)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
205
  except Exception as e:
206
+ yield go.Figure(), f"Error: {e}", None
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
207
 
208
+ def run_hist_analysis(selected_assets, period):
209
+ if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None: return go.Figure(), "No Data"
210
+ yield go.Figure(), "Analyzing..."
211
  try:
212
+ days = TIME_PERIODS.get(period, 365)
213
+ start = datetime.now() - timedelta(days=days)
214
+ valid = [a for a in selected_assets if a in DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.columns]
215
+ df_sub = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.loc[start:, valid].copy()
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
216
 
217
+ if df_sub.empty: return go.Figure(), "No Data"
218
+
219
+ df_norm = df_sub / df_sub.iloc[0] * 100
220
+ fig = px.line(df_norm, x=df_norm.index, y=df_norm.columns, title=f"Performance {period}", color_discrete_sequence=px.colors.qualitative.Bold)
221
+ fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', hoverlabel=dict(bgcolor="white", font_size=14, font_color="black"))
222
+
223
+ txt = analyze_historical_segment(df_sub, valid, period)
224
+ yield fig, f"### ๐Ÿค– Analysis\n\n{txt}"
225
  except Exception as e:
226
+ yield go.Figure(), f"Error: {e}"
 
 
 
227
 
228
+ def get_prediction_data(window_size=30):
 
 
 
 
 
229
  print("Fetching prediction data...")
230
+ lookback = window_size + 150
231
+ end = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
232
+ start = (datetime.now() - timedelta(days=lookback)).strftime('%Y-%m-%d')
233
+ tmp_file = os.path.join(project_root, "data", "temp_pred.csv")
234
+ fetch_market_data(start, end, tmp_file)
235
+ if not os.path.exists(tmp_file): raise Exception("Fetch failed.")
236
+ df = pd.read_csv(tmp_file, index_col=0, parse_dates=True)
237
  df.dropna(inplace=True)
238
+ if len(df) < window_size: raise Exception("Not enough data.")
239
  return df.iloc[-window_size:].copy()
240
 
241
  def prepare_observation(data_window):
 
244
  norm_prices = price_data / (price_data[0] + 1e-8)
245
  norm_macro = macro_data / (macro_data[0] + 1e-8)
246
  obs = np.concatenate([norm_prices, norm_macro], axis=1)
247
+ # Return flattened obs for prediction AND flat obs for XAI calc function
248
+ # (Note: XAI calc func re-shapes it internally, but expects a tensor)
249
  return obs.flatten().astype(np.float32), obs.astype(np.float32), data_window
250
 
251
  def predict_and_analyze():
252
+ yield "Starting...", None, go.Figure(), "Loading..."
 
 
 
 
 
253
  try:
254
+ data_window = get_prediction_data(WINDOW_SIZE)
 
255
  flat_obs, raw_obs, df_window_for_analyst = prepare_observation(data_window)
256
 
257
+ if not os.path.exists(MODEL_PATH): raise FileNotFoundError("Model not found.")
258
  model = SAC.load(MODEL_PATH)
259
 
260
+ # --- FIX 2: Pass the FLATTENED observation to XAI function ---
261
+ # The XAI function logic expects an input that matches the model's input layer.
262
+ yield "XAI Calc...", None, go.Figure(), "Calculating XAI..."
263
+ xai_plot = calculate_feature_importance(model, flat_obs)
264
 
 
265
  action, _ = model.predict(flat_obs, deterministic=True)
266
+ exp_act = np.exp(np.asarray(action).flatten())
267
+ weights = exp_act / np.sum(exp_act)
268
+
269
+ allocs = {ASSETS[i]: weights[i] for i in range(len(ASSETS))}
270
+ allocs['Cash'] = weights[-1]
271
+ alloc_df = pd.DataFrame(list(allocs.items()), columns=['Asset', 'Alloc'])
272
+ alloc_df['Alloc'] = alloc_df['Alloc'].apply(lambda x: f"{x:.2%}")
273
+
274
+ yield "AI Analysis...", alloc_df, xai_plot, "Running AI..."
275
+ llm_allocs = {k: float(v) for k, v in allocs.items()}
276
+ res = analyze_agent_decision(df_window_for_analyst, llm_allocs)
277
+
278
+ if isinstance(res, dict):
279
+ strat, risk, just, conf = res.get('strategy_summary','N/A'), res.get('risk_level','N/A').upper(), res.get('justification','N/A'), res.get('confidence_score','N/A')
280
+ border_col = "#ef4444" if 'HIGH' in risk else "#10b981"
281
+ bg_col = "#7f1d1d" if 'HIGH' in risk else "#064e3b"
282
+ icon = "โ›”" if 'HIGH' in risk else "๐Ÿš€"
283
+ status = "TRADE BLOCKED" if 'HIGH' in risk else "TRADE APPROVED"
284
+
285
+ html = f"""<div style="background-color: #1f2937; padding: 20px; border-radius: 12px; border: 1px solid #374151;">
286
+ <h3 style="margin-top: 0; color: #e5e7eb;">๐Ÿค– AI Report</h3>
287
+ <p><strong>Strategy:</strong> <span style="color:#d1d5db">{strat}</span></p>
288
+ <p><strong>Risk:</strong> <span style="color:{border_col}; font-weight:bold">{risk}</span></p>
289
+ <p><strong>Reason:</strong> <span style="color:#d1d5db">{just}</span></p>
290
+ <p><strong>Conf:</strong> <span style="color:#d1d5db">{conf}/10</span></p></div>
291
+ <div style="background-color:{bg_col}; color:white; padding:15px; margin-top:10px; border-radius:12px; text-align:center; font-weight:bold;">{icon} {status}</div>"""
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
292
  else:
293
+ html = f"<div style='color:red'>{str(res)}</div>"
294
+
295
+ yield "Done", alloc_df, xai_plot, html
296
  except Exception as e:
297
  import traceback
298
  traceback.print_exc()
299
+ yield f"Error: {str(e)}", None, go.Figure(), f"Error: {str(e)}"
300
+
301
+ # Dashboard Placeholders
302
+ def get_dash_metrics():
303
+ if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None: return "$---", "..."
304
+ cum_ret = (1 + DASHBOARD_DATA_DF['Daily_Ret_Eq'].fillna(0)).cumprod()
305
+ curr = 100000 * cum_ret.iloc[-1]
306
+ last = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF['Daily_Ret_Eq'].iloc[-1] * 100
307
+ col = "#10b981" if last >= 0 else "#ef4444"
308
+ return f"${curr:,.2f}", f"<span style='color:{col}'>{last:+.2f}%</span>"
309
+
310
+ def get_hist_plot():
311
+ if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None: return go.Figure()
312
+ dates = DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.index
313
+ vals = 100000 * (1 + DASHBOARD_DATA_DF['Daily_Ret_Eq'].fillna(0)).cumprod()
314
+ fig = go.Figure(go.Scatter(x=dates, y=vals, mode='lines', name='Portfolio', line=dict(color='#10b981', width=2)))
315
+ fig.update_layout(title="Simulated Net Worth", template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)', hoverlabel=dict(bgcolor="white", font_size=14, font_color="black"))
 
 
 
 
 
 
316
  return fig
317
 
318
+ def get_alloc_plot():
319
+ fig = px.pie(values=[0.2]*5, names=ASSETS, title="Target Allocation", color_discrete_sequence=px.colors.qualitative.Bold)
320
+ fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark", paper_bgcolor='rgba(0,0,0,0)')
 
 
 
321
  return fig
322
 
323
+ def get_trans():
324
+ return pd.DataFrame([["2025-11-24", "REBALANCE", "ALL", "N/A"]], columns=["Date", "Type", "Asset", "Value"])
 
 
 
 
 
 
325
 
326
+ # --- UI ---
327
  custom_css = """
328
  .metric-box { background-color: #1f2937; padding: 20px; border-radius: 12px; border: 1px solid #374151; text-align: center; }
329
+ .metric-label { font-size: 1.1em; color: #9ca3af; }
330
  .metric-value { font-size: 2.2em; font-weight: 700; color: #e5e7eb; }
 
331
  """
332
 
333
+ # REMOVED theme= argument to fix Gradio conflict
334
+ with gr.Blocks(css=custom_css, title="Deep RL Manager") as demo:
335
+ gr.HTML("""<script>function f(){document.body.classList.add('dark');} f(); setTimeout(f, 500);</script>""")
 
 
 
 
 
 
336
  gr.Markdown("# ๐Ÿง  Deep RL & LLM Portfolio Manager")
337
 
338
  with gr.Tabs():
339
+ with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ“Š Dashboard"):
340
+ nw, ch = get_dash_metrics()
 
341
  with gr.Row():
342
+ gr.HTML(f"<div class='metric-box'><div class='metric-label'>Simulated Net Worth</div><div class='metric-value'>{nw}</div></div>")
343
+ gr.HTML(f"<div class='metric-box'><div class='metric-label'>24h Change</div><div class='metric-value' style='color:#10b981'>{ch}</div></div>")
 
 
 
 
 
 
344
  with gr.Row():
345
+ with gr.Column(scale=3): gr.Plot(value=get_hist_plot())
346
+ with gr.Column(scale=1): gr.Plot(value=get_alloc_plot())
 
 
347
  with gr.Row():
348
+ with gr.Column(): gr.Dataframe(value=get_trans(), label="Transactions")
349
+
350
+ with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ”ฎ Forecast"):
351
+ btn = gr.Button("๐Ÿš€ Run Analysis", variant="primary")
352
+ stat = gr.Textbox(label="Status", interactive=False)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
353
  with gr.Row():
 
354
  with gr.Column(scale=2):
355
+ alloc = gr.Dataframe(label="Allocation")
356
+ xai = gr.Plot(label="XAI")
 
 
 
 
 
 
357
  with gr.Column(scale=3):
358
+ rep = gr.HTML(label="Report")
359
+ btn.click(predict_and_analyze, None, [stat, alloc, xai, rep])
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
360
 
361
+ with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ“… Analyst"):
362
  with gr.Row():
363
  with gr.Column(scale=1):
364
+ ticks = ASSETS + FRED_IDS.values() if DASHBOARD_DATA_DF is None else [c for c in ASSETS + list(FRED_IDS.values()) if c in DASHBOARD_DATA_DF.columns]
365
+ sel = gr.Dropdown(choices=ticks, multiselect=True, label="Assets")
366
+ per = gr.Dropdown(choices=list(TIME_PERIODS.keys()), value="1 Year", label="Period")
367
+ btn = gr.Button("Analyze", variant="primary")
 
368
  with gr.Column(scale=3):
369
+ plot = gr.Plot()
370
+ out = gr.Markdown()
371
+ btn.click(run_hist_analysis, [sel, per], [plot, out])
372
 
373
+ with gr.TabItem("๐Ÿ”™ Simulation"):
374
+ with gr.Row():
375
+ s_d = gr.Textbox(label="Start", value="2024-01-01")
376
+ e_d = gr.Textbox(label="End", value="2025-01-01")
377
+ btn = gr.Button("Run", variant="primary")
378
+ stat = gr.Textbox(label="Status")
379
+ plot = gr.Plot()
380
+ met = gr.Dataframe(label="Metrics")
381
+ btn.click(run_historical_simulation, [s_d, e_d], [plot, stat, met])
382
 
383
  if __name__ == "__main__":
384
  demo.queue().launch(server_name="0.0.0.0", server_port=7860, debug=True, share=True)