# scripts/compare_performance.py import pandas as pd import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import os from stable_baselines3 import TD3, PPO, SAC from gymnasium import spaces from matplotlib.ticker import FuncFormatter from environment import PortfolioEnv from evaluate_baselines import buy_and_hold, equally_weighted_rebalanced from custom_policy import TransformerFeatureExtractor def evaluate_agent(env, model): """ Runs the trained agent on the environment and returns portfolio values. """ obs, info = env.reset() terminated, truncated = False, False portfolio_values = [env.initial_balance] while not (terminated or truncated): action, _states = model.predict(obs, deterministic=True) obs, reward, terminated, truncated, info = env.step(action) portfolio_values.append(info['portfolio_value']) # Align index with the actual steps taken # The first obs is at window_size, so index should start one step before valid_dates = env.df.index[env.window_size-1:] return pd.Series(portfolio_values, index=valid_dates[:len(portfolio_values)]) def calculate_metrics(portfolio_values, freq=252, rf=0.0): """ Calculates key performance metrics from a series of portfolio values. """ if len(portfolio_values) < 2: return { "Total Return": "N/A", "CAGR": "N/A", "Sharpe Ratio": "N/A", "Max Drawdown": "N/A" } returns = portfolio_values.pct_change().dropna() if returns.empty: return { "Total Return": "0.00%", "CAGR": "0.00%", "Sharpe Ratio": "0.00", "Max Drawdown": "0.00%" } total_return = (portfolio_values.iloc[-1] / portfolio_values.iloc[0]) - 1 num_years = (len(portfolio_values) - 1) / freq cagr = (portfolio_values.iloc[-1] / portfolio_values.iloc[0]) ** (1/num_years) - 1 if num_years > 0 else 0.0 sharpe_ratio = np.sqrt(freq) * (returns.mean() - rf) / returns.std() if returns.std() > 0 else np.nan downside_returns = returns[returns < 0] downside_std = downside_returns.std() sortino_ratio = np.sqrt(freq) * (returns.mean() - rf) / downside_std if downside_std > 0 else np.nan volatility = returns.std() * np.sqrt(freq) rolling_max = portfolio_values.cummax() drawdown = portfolio_values / rolling_max - 1.0 max_drawdown = drawdown.min() calmar_ratio = cagr / abs(max_drawdown) if max_drawdown != 0 and cagr != 0 else np.nan return { "Total Return": f"{total_return:.2%}", "CAGR": f"{cagr:.2%}", "Sharpe Ratio": f"{sharpe_ratio:.2f}", "Sortino Ratio": f"{sortino_ratio:.2f}", "Volatility": f"{volatility:.2%}", "Max Drawdown": f"{max_drawdown:.2%}", "Calmar Ratio": f"{calmar_ratio:.2f}" } def main(test_data_path='data/eval.csv'): """ Loads, evaluates, and plots all agent performances against baselines. """ # Define Model Paths and Agent Types models_to_evaluate = { "SAC Agent Default (MLP)": (SAC, 'checkpoints/sac_portfolio_model.zip'), "PPO Agent (MLP)": (PPO, 'checkpoints/ppo_portfolio_model.zip'), "TD3 Agent (MLP)": (TD3, 'checkpoints/td3_portfolio_model.zip'), "TD3 Agent (Transformer)": (TD3, 'checkpoints/td3_transformer_model.zip') } # Load test data (this contains ALL columns - assets + macro) full_eval_df = pd.read_csv(test_data_path, index_col='Date', parse_dates=True) # Define your actual tradable asset columns asset_columns = ['AAPL', 'BTC-USD', 'MSFT', 'SPY', 'TLT'] portfolio_values = {} metrics = {} # --- Run Evaluations for each RL Agent--- for name, (agent_type, model_path) in models_to_evaluate.items(): print(f"--- Evaluating {name} ---") if not os.path.exists(model_path): print(f"⚠️ Warning: Model file not found at {model_path}. Skipping.") continue model = agent_type.load(model_path) env = PortfolioEnv(full_eval_df) # Pass the full DataFrame to the RL env portfolio_values[name] = evaluate_agent(env, model) metrics[name] = calculate_metrics(portfolio_values[name]) # --- Evaluate Buy and Hold Baseline --- print("\n--- Evaluating Buy and Hold Baseline ---") bnh_values = buy_and_hold(full_eval_df[asset_columns]) ewp_values = equally_weighted_rebalanced(full_eval_df[asset_columns]) portfolio_values["Buy and Hold"] = bnh_values metrics["Buy and Hold"] = calculate_metrics(bnh_values) portfolio_values["Equally Weighted"] = ewp_values metrics["Equally Weighted"] = calculate_metrics(ewp_values) # --- Combine and Print Metrics --- print("\n--- Performance Metrics ---") metrics_df = pd.DataFrame(metrics) print(metrics_df.to_markdown(numalign="left", stralign="left")) # --- Plotting All Strategies --- plt.style.use('seaborn-v0_8-darkgrid') fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(14, 8)) colors = { "PPO Agent (MLP)": "red", "SAC Agent Default (MLP)": "green", "TD3 Agent (MLP)": "orange", "TD3 Agent (Transformer)": "cyan", "Buy and Hold": "blue", "Equally Weighted": "purple" } for name, values in portfolio_values.items(): if name in portfolio_values: # Check if it was successfully evaluated ax.plot(values.index, values, label=name, color=colors.get(name, 'gray'), linewidth=2) ax.set_title('Agent Performance Comparison', fontsize=16) ax.set_xlabel('Date', fontsize=12) ax.set_ylabel('Portfolio Value ($)', fontsize=12) ax.legend(fontsize=12) formatter = FuncFormatter(lambda x, p: f'${x:,.0f}') ax.yaxis.set_major_formatter(formatter) plt.tight_layout() results_dir = 'results' os.makedirs(results_dir, exist_ok=True) plt.savefig(os.path.join(results_dir, 'final_performance_comparison_all_agents.png')) plt.show() if __name__ == '__main__': main()