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"experiment": "C19_pattern_mining",
"description": "No-lookahead dry run for candlestick, SAX, and fold-local pattern-stat features.",
"stocks": [
"2330"
],
"pass_criterion": {
"every_stock_accuracy_delta_pp_at_least": 3.0
},
"baseline_features": [
"return_1d",
"return_5d",
"return_10d",
"return_20d",
"close_ma5_ratio",
"close_ma20_ratio",
"ma5_ma20_ratio",
"ma20_ma60_ratio",
"rsi",
"macd_hist",
"macd_signal_ratio",
"macd_hist_norm",
"macd_hist_delta_1d",
"macd_hist_slope_3d",
"macd_above_zero",
"bb_pct_b",
"k",
"d",
"volume_ratio",
"atr_ratio",
"high_low_ratio",
"obv_trend",
"close_ma60_ratio",
"log_volume_ratio",
"volume_zscore",
"volatility_20d",
"taiex_return_5d",
"taiex_ma20_ratio",
"usdtwd_return_5d"
],
"candidate_raw_pattern_features": [
"candle_body_ratio",
"upper_shadow_ratio",
"lower_shadow_ratio",
"close_position",
"gap_pct",
"range_pct",
"body_pct",
"range_expansion_5d",
"volume_price_pressure",
"inside_bar",
"outside_bar",
"bullish_engulfing",
"bearish_engulfing",
"candle_dir",
"candle_pattern_3",
"candle_pattern_5",
"sax_pattern_5",
"sax_pattern_10",
"sax_momentum_5",
"sax_reversal_5"
],
"candidate_fold_local_pattern_stats": [
"candle_pattern_3_up_rate",
"candle_pattern_3_down_rate",
"candle_pattern_3_label_mean",
"candle_pattern_5_up_rate",
"candle_pattern_5_down_rate",
"candle_pattern_5_label_mean",
"sax_pattern_5_up_rate",
"sax_pattern_5_down_rate",
"sax_pattern_5_label_mean",
"sax_pattern_10_up_rate",
"sax_pattern_10_down_rate",
"sax_pattern_10_label_mean"
],
"aggregate": {
"baseline": {
"accuracy": 32.4,
"dir_accuracy": 35.8,
"up_precision": 55.4,
"dn_precision": 24.1,
"n_signals": 173.0,
"n_predictions": 210.0
},
"pattern_mining": {
"accuracy": 30.5,
"dir_accuracy": 33.1,
"up_precision": 51.5,
"dn_precision": 21.8,
"n_signals": 178.0,
"n_predictions": 210.0
}
},
"aggregate_accuracy_delta_pp": -1.9,
"aggregate_signal_delta": 5.0,
"per_stock": {
"2330": {
"baseline": {
"accuracy": 32.4,
"dir_accuracy": 35.8,
"up_precision": 55.4,
"dn_precision": 24.1,
"n_signals": 173,
"n_predictions": 210
},
"pattern_mining": {
"accuracy": 30.5,
"dir_accuracy": 33.1,
"up_precision": 51.5,
"dn_precision": 21.8,
"n_signals": 178,
"n_predictions": 210,
"added_features": 32
},
"accuracy_delta_pp": -1.9,
"passed": false
}
},
"passed": false,
"promotion_decision": "do_not_integrate",
"validation": {
"mode": "walk_forward_with_embargo",
"label_horizon": 5,
"train_end": "cutoff - LABEL_HORIZON",
"step": 21,
"min_train": 240,
"leakage_guard": "pattern stats for test rows are learned only from the training slice; training rows use prior expanding stats."
}
} |