"""Linear compatibility scores for bivariate causal statements. Faithful implementation of Section 2 of Erik Jahn, Dominik Janzing. "Evaluating Bivariate Causal Statements Based on Mutual Compatibility." arXiv:2606.00278v1 [cs.AI], 29 May 2026. Symbol conventions follow the paper exactly: * ``Gamma`` -- strictly lower-triangular matrix of causal coefficients of a multivariate linear SEM ``X = Gamma X + N`` (equation (1)). * ``A`` -- unit lower-triangular matrix of *bivariate* causal statements, ``A[j, i] = alpha_ij`` for ``i < j`` (Section 2.2). Lemma 2.3 ties the two together via ``Gamma = I - A^{-1}``, equivalently ``A = (I - Gamma)^{-1}``. * ``Sigma`` -- covariance matrix of the *observed* vector ``X``. The only subtle quantity is the path-tracing term of Definition 2.6. See :func:`disjoint_path_pair_sums` for the dynamic program that computes it. """ from __future__ import annotations import itertools import numpy as np __all__ = [ "gamma_from_A", "A_from_gamma", "sigma_x_from_model", "disjoint_path_pair_sums", "disjoint_path_pair_sums_bruteforce", "observed_path_term", "C_biv", "C_mult", "compatibility_score", "decompose_B_eps", "standardize", ] # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Lemma 2.3: the bijection between statement matrices and SEM coefficients # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def gamma_from_A(A: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """``Gamma = I - A^{-1}`` (Lemma 2.3).""" n = A.shape[0] return np.eye(n) - np.linalg.inv(A) def A_from_gamma(Gamma: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """``A = (I - Gamma)^{-1}``: the matrix of *total* bivariate causal effects.""" n = Gamma.shape[0] return np.linalg.inv(np.eye(n) - Gamma) def sigma_x_from_model(Gamma: np.ndarray, Sigma_N: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """``Sigma_X = (I - Gamma)^{-1} Sigma_N (I - Gamma)^{-T}`` (Section 2.6).""" A = A_from_gamma(Gamma) return A @ Sigma_N @ A.T # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Definition 2.6: sums over pairs of vertex-disjoint directed paths # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def disjoint_path_pair_sums(Gamma: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """Return ``F`` with ``F[k, i, j] = sum over disjoint path pairs from k``. Precisely, for every ``k <= i < j``, .. math:: F[k,i,j] = \\sum_{\\substack{P_1 : k \\leadsto i,\\ P_2 : k \\leadsto j\\\\ P_1 \\cap P_2 = \\emptyset}} \\Gamma_{P_1} \\Gamma_{P_2} where the paths are directed paths in the SEM's coefficient graph, they are vertex-disjoint apart from their shared start ``k``, and ``Gamma_P = prod_s Gamma[t_{s+1}, t_s]`` is the product of coefficients along the path (the empty path contributes ``1``). Because ``Gamma`` is strictly lower-triangular, every directed path visits strictly increasing indices. This is what makes an ``O(n^4)`` dynamic program possible. A DP state ``(u, v)`` records the current head of the path aimed at ``i`` and of the path aimed at ``j``; while neither path has arrived we always extend whichever head is *smaller*. Under that rule every vertex already committed to either path is strictly below the head we are about to move -- the sole exception being the other head -- so vertex-disjointness reduces to the single local test ``new_head != other_head``. Once one path has arrived at its target the other is extended alone, which is still safe because its head only grows and is already above every vertex of the finished path. Note the state is *not* symmetric in ``u`` and ``v``: the two paths have different destinations. """ n = Gamma.shape[0] # total[b, a] = sum of Gamma_P over all directed paths a ~> b total = A_from_gamma(Gamma) F = np.zeros((n, n, n)) for i in range(n): for j in range(i + 1, n): # w[u, v]: sum of coefficient products over all vertex-disjoint # completions of a path pair with heads (u -> i, v -> j). w = np.zeros((n, n)) w[i, j] = 1.0 # Every transition strictly increases u + v, so a single sweep in # decreasing u + v order resolves the recursion. for s in range(2 * n - 3, -1, -1): for u in range(n): v = s - u if v < 0 or v >= n or u == v or (u == i and v == j): continue if u > i or v > j: continue # target already overshot; unreachable acc = 0.0 if u == i: extend_u = False # path 1 has arrived elif v == j: extend_u = True # path 2 has arrived else: extend_u = u < v # extend the smaller head if extend_u: for up in range(u + 1, n): g = Gamma[up, u] if g == 0.0 or up == v: continue acc += g * w[up, v] else: for vp in range(v + 1, n): g = Gamma[vp, v] if g == 0.0 or vp == u: continue acc += g * w[u, vp] w[u, v] = acc # Assemble F[k, i, j] for every start k <= i. for k in range(i + 1): if k == i: # P1 is the empty path at i; P2 ranges over all i ~> j. F[k, i, j] = total[j, i] continue acc = 0.0 for a in range(k + 1, n): ga = Gamma[a, k] if ga == 0.0: continue for b in range(k + 1, n): if b == a: continue gb = Gamma[b, k] if gb == 0.0: continue acc += ga * gb * w[a, b] F[k, i, j] = acc return F def _all_increasing_paths(Gamma: np.ndarray, src: int, dst: int): """Enumerate every directed path ``src ~> dst`` as a vertex tuple.""" n = Gamma.shape[0] if src == dst: yield (src,) return stack = [(src, (src,))] while stack: head, path = stack.pop() for nxt in range(head + 1, n): if Gamma[nxt, head] == 0.0: continue if nxt == dst: yield path + (nxt,) else: stack.append((nxt, path + (nxt,))) def _path_weight(Gamma: np.ndarray, path) -> float: w = 1.0 for s in range(len(path) - 1): w *= Gamma[path[s + 1], path[s]] return w def disjoint_path_pair_sums_bruteforce(Gamma: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """Reference implementation of :func:`disjoint_path_pair_sums`. Enumerates path pairs explicitly. Exponential in ``n`` -- used only as an independent checker of the dynamic program on small models. """ n = Gamma.shape[0] F = np.zeros((n, n, n)) for i in range(n): for j in range(i + 1, n): for k in range(i + 1): acc = 0.0 for p1 in _all_increasing_paths(Gamma, k, i): s1 = set(p1) w1 = _path_weight(Gamma, p1) if w1 == 0.0: continue for p2 in _all_increasing_paths(Gamma, k, j): # disjoint apart from the shared start k if len(s1 & set(p2)) != 1: continue acc += w1 * _path_weight(Gamma, p2) F[k, i, j] = acc return F def observed_path_term(Sigma: np.ndarray, Gamma: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray: """``T[i, j] = sum_{k<=i} Sigma[k,k] * F[k,i,j]`` -- the bracket of Def. 2.6.""" F = disjoint_path_pair_sums(Gamma) diag = np.diag(Sigma) n = Sigma.shape[0] T = np.zeros((n, n)) for i in range(n): for j in range(i + 1, n): T[i, j] = float(np.dot(diag[: i + 1], F[: i + 1, i, j])) return T # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Definitions 2.5 / 2.6 / 2.7 # -------------------------------------------------------------------------- def C_biv(Sigma: np.ndarray, A: np.ndarray, i: int, j: int) -> float: """Definition 2.5: ``(Sigma_ij - alpha_ij Sigma_ii)^2`` with ``alpha_ij = A[j,i]``.""" return float((Sigma[i, j] - A[j, i] * Sigma[i, i]) ** 2) def C_mult(Sigma: np.ndarray, Gamma: np.ndarray, i: int, j: int, T: np.ndarray | None = None) -> float: """Definition 2.6: squared part of ``Sigma_ij`` unexplained by observed paths.""" if T is None: T = observed_path_term(Sigma, Gamma) return float((Sigma[i, j] - T[i, j]) ** 2) def compatibility_score(Sigma: np.ndarray, A: np.ndarray) -> float: """Definition 2.7: ``sum_{i