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| """Paper Lifecycle — Gartner hype-cycle visualization of arXiv CS topics. | |
| 每个季度一张"炒作周期"快照（累积到该季度），滑块拖动即可查看不同季度。 | |
| 数据来自 src/lifecycle_quarterly.py 生成的 lifecycle_quarterly.json | |
| （本地优先；HF Space 上从数据集仓库拉取）。 | |
| """ | |
| import json | |
| import os | |
| from pathlib import Path | |
| import numpy as np | |
| import gradio as gr | |
| import plotly.graph_objects as go | |
| DATA_FILE = "lifecycle_quarterly.json" | |
| HF_LIFECYCLE_REPO = os.getenv("HF_LIFECYCLE_REPO", "Elfsong/arxiv_cs_lifecycle") | |
| def _load_data() -> dict: | |
| p = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / DATA_FILE | |
| if p.exists(): | |
| return json.loads(p.read_text()) | |
| from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download | |
| local = hf_hub_download(HF_LIFECYCLE_REPO, DATA_FILE, | |
| repo_type="dataset", token=os.getenv("HF_TOKEN")) | |
| return json.loads(Path(local).read_text()) | |
| DATA = _load_data() | |
| QUARTERS = [q for q in DATA["quarters"] if DATA["snapshots"][q]["topics"]] | |
| PHASES = DATA["phase_order"] | |
| PHASE_COLOR = { | |
| "Innovation Trigger": "#3b82f6", | |
| "Peak of Inflated Expectations": "#ef4444", | |
| "Trough of Disillusionment": "#8b5cf6", | |
| "Slope of Enlightenment": "#f59e0b", | |
| "Plateau of Productivity": "#22c55e", | |
| } | |
| PHASE_SHORT = { | |
| "Innovation Trigger": "Innovation\nTrigger", | |
| "Peak of Inflated Expectations": "Peak of Inflated\nExpectations", | |
| "Trough of Disillusionment": "Trough of\nDisillusionment", | |
| "Slope of Enlightenment": "Slope of\nEnlightenment", | |
| "Plateau of Productivity": "Plateau of\nProductivity", | |
| } | |
| PHASE_X = { | |
| "Innovation Trigger": (3, 13), | |
| "Peak of Inflated Expectations": (15, 28), | |
| "Trough of Disillusionment": (37, 52), | |
| "Slope of Enlightenment": (58, 78), | |
| "Plateau of Productivity": (82, 97), | |
| } | |
| def _curve_y(x): | |
| """平滑解析曲线：一个早期高斯"炒作峰" + 一条升向高原的 sigmoid。""" | |
| peak = 82.0 * np.exp(-(((x - 18.0) / 8.5) ** 2)) | |
| plateau = 62.0 / (1.0 + np.exp(-(x - 60.0) / 6.5)) | |
| return 6.0 + peak + plateau | |
| def _jit(s, lo, hi): | |
| h = (hash(s) % 1000) / 1000.0 | |
| return lo + (hi - lo) * h | |
| def _display_phase(t): | |
| # 选作 emerging 的 topic 摆到 Innovation Trigger 区 | |
| return "Innovation Trigger" if t.get("emerging") else t["phase"] | |
| def _select(snap, top_n): | |
| """top-N 成熟 topic（按累计计数） + 全部 emerging（始终显示）。""" | |
| mature = [t for t in snap["topics"] if not t.get("emerging")][:int(top_n)] | |
| emerging = [t for t in snap["topics"] if t.get("emerging")] | |
| return mature + emerging | |
| def build_figure(quarter: str, top_n: int): | |
| snap = DATA["snapshots"][quarter] | |
| topics = _select(snap, top_n) | |
| fig = go.Figure() | |
| # 1) 平滑曲线背景（解析函数密采样） | |
| xs = np.linspace(0, 100, 400) | |
| fig.add_trace(go.Scatter( | |
| x=xs, y=_curve_y(xs), mode="lines", | |
| line=dict(color="#cbd5e1", width=3, shape="spline"), | |
| hoverinfo="skip", showlegend=False)) | |
| # 2) 相位底色 + 标签 | |
| for ph in PHASES: | |
| lo, hi = PHASE_X[ph] | |
| fig.add_vrect(x0=lo - 2.5, x1=hi + 2.5, fillcolor=PHASE_COLOR[ph], | |
| opacity=0.05, line_width=0, layer="below") | |
| fig.add_annotation(x=(lo + hi) / 2, y=-9, text=PHASE_SHORT[ph], | |
| showarrow=False, align="center", | |
| font=dict(size=10, color=PHASE_COLOR[ph])) | |
| # 3) 按"显示相位"分组铺开（emerging → Innovation 区） | |
| by_phase = {ph: [] for ph in PHASES} | |
| for t in topics: | |
| by_phase[_display_phase(t)].append(t) | |
| max_cnt = max((t["total_count"] for t in topics), default=1) | |
| for ph, items in by_phase.items(): | |
| if not items: | |
| continue | |
| items.sort(key=lambda r: r["current_avg"]) | |
| lo, hi = PHASE_X[ph] | |
| n = len(items) | |
| xpos, ypos, sizes, hovers = [], [], [], [] | |
| for i, t in enumerate(items): | |
| x = lo + (hi - lo) * (i + 0.5) / n + _jit(t["topic"], -1.2, 1.2) | |
| x = min(max(x, 1), 99) | |
| xpos.append(x) | |
| ypos.append(float(_curve_y(x)) + _jit(t["topic"] + "y", -3.5, 3.5)) | |
| sizes.append(10 + 34 * (t["total_count"] / max_cnt) ** 0.5) | |
| tag = " 🌱 emerging" if t.get("emerging") else "" | |
| hovers.append( | |
| f"<b>{t['topic']}</b>{tag}<br>" | |
| f"phase: {t['phase']}<br>" | |
| f"papers: {t['total_count']}<br>" | |
| f"recent share: {t.get('recent_fraction', '?')}<br>" | |
| f"decline ratio: {t['decline_ratio']} slope: {t['slope']}<br>" | |
| f"peak: {t['peak_quarter']}<extra></extra>") | |
| fig.add_trace(go.Scatter( | |
| x=xpos, y=ypos, mode="markers", name=ph, | |
| marker=dict(size=sizes, color=PHASE_COLOR[ph], opacity=0.78, | |
| line=dict(width=1, color="white")), | |
| hovertemplate="%{hovertext}", hovertext=hovers)) | |
| fig.update_layout( | |
| title=dict(text=f"<b>arXiv CS — Topic Hype Cycle · {quarter}</b>" | |
| f" <span style='font-size:13px;color:#64748b'>" | |
| f"{snap['n_papers']:,} papers · {len(topics)} topics</span>", | |
| x=0.5, xanchor="center"), | |
| xaxis=dict(range=[-3, 103], showgrid=False, zeroline=False, | |
| showticklabels=False, title=""), | |
| yaxis=dict(range=[-16, 108], showgrid=False, zeroline=False, | |
| showticklabels=False, title="Expectations →"), | |
| plot_bgcolor="white", height=620, | |
| margin=dict(l=20, r=20, t=60, b=30), | |
| hoverlabel=dict(bgcolor="white", font_size=12), | |
| legend=dict(orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02, | |
| xanchor="center", x=0.5, font=dict(size=10))) | |
| return fig | |
| def update(idx: int, top_n: int): | |
| q = QUARTERS[int(idx)] | |
| snap = DATA["snapshots"][q] | |
| shown = _select(snap, top_n) | |
| # 图例计数按"显示相位"统计，和图一致 | |
| from collections import Counter | |
| dc = Counter(_display_phase(t) for t in shown) | |
| md = (f"### 📅 Snapshot: **{q}** | {snap['n_papers']:,} papers cumulative\n" | |
| + " ".join(f"<span style='color:{PHASE_COLOR[p]}'>●</span> " | |
| f"{p.split(' ')[0]}: **{dc.get(p, 0)}**" for p in PHASES)) | |
| return build_figure(q, int(top_n)), md | |
| with gr.Blocks(title="Paper Lifecycle") as demo: | |
| gr.Markdown("# 🔄 arXiv CS Topic Lifecycle — Gartner Hype Cycle\n" | |
| "拖动滑块查看不同季度（累积）的研究主题炒作周期。" | |
| "点大小=累计论文数，颜色=阶段；🌱 为新兴主题（置于 Innovation 区）。" | |
| "**鼠标悬停查看主题与指标。**") | |
| with gr.Row(): | |
| idx = gr.Slider(0, len(QUARTERS) - 1, value=len(QUARTERS) - 1, step=1, | |
| label=f"Quarter snapshot (0 = {QUARTERS[0]} … " | |
| f"{len(QUARTERS)-1} = {QUARTERS[-1]})") | |
| topn = gr.Slider(10, 120, value=50, step=5, label="Top-N topics") | |
| info = gr.Markdown() | |
| plot = gr.Plot() | |
| idx.change(update, [idx, topn], [plot, info]) | |
| topn.change(update, [idx, topn], [plot, info]) | |
| demo.load(update, [idx, topn], [plot, info]) | |
| if __name__ == "__main__": | |
| demo.launch(theme=gr.themes.Soft()) | |