app.py

import gradio as gr
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

BURGUNDY = "#5A1414"
GOLD = "#FFB612"

# Hidden model performance constants (Boosted NN)
TP_COUNT = 588
FP_COUNT = 1310


# -----------------------------
# Core economics (TP/FP-aware)
# -----------------------------
def compute_profit(
    tier1_contract,          # full contract value for TRUE Tier 1 (e.g., 24.3M)
    tier2_contract,          # full contract value for TRUE Tier 2 (e.g., 2.7M)
    premium_rate,            # e.g., 0.007 (0.7%)
    injury_rate,             # e.g., 0.003 (0.3%)
    payout_pct_contract,     # e.g., 0.6 or 0.8 (portion paid out under PTD)
    combine_players,         # e.g., 300-330
    insured_pct_players      # % of combine players insured (predicted Tier 1)
):
    # Players insured per year (predicted Tier 1)
    players_insured = combine_players * insured_pct_players

    # Precision among insured (TP share) from model constants
    denom = TP_COUNT + FP_COUNT
    precision = (TP_COUNT / denom) if denom > 0 else 0.0

    # Profit per insured player IF actually Tier 1
    profit_t1 = (premium_rate * tier1_contract) - (injury_rate * payout_pct_contract * tier1_contract)

    # Profit per insured player IF actually Tier 2 (false positive)
    profit_t2 = (premium_rate * tier2_contract) - (injury_rate * payout_pct_contract * tier1_contract)

    # Expected profit per insured player, accounting for TP/FP mix
    profit_per_player = precision * profit_t1 + (1 - precision) * profit_t2

    # Expected annual profit
    annual_profit = players_insured * profit_per_player

    # Breakdown (useful outputs)
    insured_t1 = players_insured * precision
    insured_t2 = players_insured * (1 - precision)

    return annual_profit, profit_per_player, players_insured, insured_t1, insured_t2, precision


# -----------------------------
# Sensitivity chart
# -----------------------------
def sensitivity_plot(
    tier1_contract,
    tier2_contract,
    premium_rate,
    injury_rate,
    payout_pct_contract,
    combine_players,
    insured_pct_players
):
    def annual(t1, t2, pr, ir, pay):
        return compute_profit(
            t1, t2, pr, ir, pay,
            combine_players, insured_pct_players
        )[0]

    # Salary sensitivity: scale BOTH tiers together ±20%
    salary_vals = [
        annual(tier1_contract * 0.8, tier2_contract, premium_rate, injury_rate, payout_pct_contract),
        annual(tier1_contract,       tier2_contract,       premium_rate, injury_rate, payout_pct_contract),
        annual(tier1_contract * 1.2, tier2_contract, premium_rate, injury_rate, payout_pct_contract),
    ]

    # Premium sensitivity ±0.2% (0.002)
    premium_vals = [
        annual(tier1_contract, tier2_contract, max(premium_rate - 0.002, 0.0), injury_rate, payout_pct_contract),
        annual(tier1_contract, tier2_contract, premium_rate,                  injury_rate, payout_pct_contract),
        annual(tier1_contract, tier2_contract, premium_rate + 0.002,          injury_rate, payout_pct_contract),
    ]

    # Injury sensitivity ±0.1% (0.001)
    injury_vals = [
        annual(tier1_contract, tier2_contract, premium_rate, max(injury_rate - 0.001, 0.0), payout_pct_contract),
        annual(tier1_contract, tier2_contract, premium_rate, injury_rate,                  payout_pct_contract),
        annual(tier1_contract, tier2_contract, premium_rate, injury_rate + 0.001,          payout_pct_contract),
    ]

    labels = [
        "Salary -20%", "Salary Base", "Salary +20%",
        "Premium -0.2%", "Premium Base", "Premium +0.2%",
        "Injury -0.1%", "Injury Base", "Injury +0.1%",
    ]
    values = salary_vals + premium_vals + injury_vals

    fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 4.3))
    ax.bar(labels, values, color=GOLD, edgecolor=BURGUNDY, linewidth=0.8)
    ax.axhline(0, color=BURGUNDY, linewidth=2)

    ax.set_title("Sensitivity of Expected Annual Profit to Key Assumptions",
                 color=BURGUNDY, fontsize=14, fontweight="bold")
    ax.set_ylabel("Expected Annual Profit ($)")
    ax.tick_params(axis="x", rotation=35)

    fig.tight_layout()
    return fig


# -----------------------------
# Run button handler
# -----------------------------
def run_simulator(
    tier1_contract,
    tier2_contract,
    premium_rate,
    injury_rate,
    combine_players,
    insured_pct_players,
    payout_pct_contract,
):
    annual_profit, profit_per_player, insured_players, insured_t1, insured_t2, precision = compute_profit(
        tier1_contract,
        tier2_contract,
        premium_rate,
        injury_rate,
        payout_pct_contract,
        combine_players,
        insured_pct_players
    )

    fig = sensitivity_plot(
        tier1_contract,
        tier2_contract,
        premium_rate,
        injury_rate,
        payout_pct_contract,
        combine_players,
        insured_pct_players
    )

    return (
        round(annual_profit,0),
        round(profit_per_player,0),
        round(insured_players, 0),
        round(insured_t1, 0),
        round(insured_t2, 0),
        round(precision, 3),
        fig,
    )


# -----------------------------
# Styling (Burgundy + Gold)
# -----------------------------
custom_css = f"""
:root {{
    --primary-500: {BURGUNDY} !important;
    --primary-600: {BURGUNDY} !important;
    --primary-700: #4A0F0F !important;
    --accent-color: {BURGUNDY} !important;
}}
label span {{
    color: {BURGUNDY} !important;
    font-weight: 700;
}}
.gr-markdown h2, .gr-markdown h3 {{
    color: {BURGUNDY} !important;
}}
.gr-slider input[type="range"] {{
    accent-color: {BURGUNDY} !important;
}}
input[type="range"]::-webkit-slider-thumb {{
    background: {GOLD} !important;
    border: 2px solid {BURGUNDY} !important;
}}
input[type="range"]::-moz-range-thumb {{
    background: {GOLD} !important;
    border: 2px solid {BURGUNDY} !important;
}}
input[type="range"]:focus::-webkit-slider-thumb {{
    box-shadow: 0 0 0 4px rgba(255, 182, 18, 0.45);
}}
.gr-button {{
    background-color: {BURGUNDY} !important;
    color: {GOLD} !important;
    font-weight: 800 !important;
    border-radius: 10px !important;
}}
.gr-button:hover {{
    background-color: #4A0F0F !important;
}}
.gr-label span {{
    background-color: {BURGUNDY} !important;
    color: {GOLD} !important;
    border-radius: 6px;
    padding: 2px 6px;
}}
"""


# -----------------------------
# UI
# -----------------------------
with gr.Blocks() as demo:
    gr.Markdown(f"""
    <h2 style="color:{BURGUNDY}; margin-bottom:0.2rem;">
      NFL Combine Insurance Revenue Simulator (TP/FP-adjusted)
    </h2>
    <p style="margin-top:0.2rem;">
      Uses hidden boosted-NN precision derived from TP={TP_COUNT} and FP={FP_COUNT} (precision ≈ {TP_COUNT/(TP_COUNT+FP_COUNT):.3f}).
      Adjust assumptions to stress-test expected annual profit.
    </p>
    """)

    with gr.Row():
        tier1_contract = gr.Slider(
            18_000_000, 30_000_000, value=24_300_000, step=100_000,
            label="Tier 1 Avg Full Contract ($)"
        )
        tier2_contract = gr.Slider(
            750_000, 6_000_000, value=2_700_000, step=50_000,
            label="Tier 2 Avg Full Contract ($)"
        )

    with gr.Row():
        premium_rate = gr.Slider(
            0.003, 0.010, value=0.007, step=0.001,
            label="Premium Rate"
        )
        injury_rate = gr.Slider(
            0.001, 0.010, value=0.003, step=0.001,
            label="Injury / Payout Probability"
        )

    with gr.Row():
        combine_players = gr.Slider(
            300, 330, value=330, step=1,
            label="Total Combine Participants Per Year"
        )
        insured_pct_players = gr.Slider(
            0.20, 0.60, value=0.40, step=0.01,
            label="Percent of Players Insured"
        )

    payout_pct_contract = gr.Slider(
        0.40, 0.90, value=0.60, step=0.05,
        label="Percent of Contract Paid Out on PTD"
    )

    gr.Markdown("### Key Outputs")

    with gr.Row():
        annual_out = gr.Number(label="Expected Annual Profit ($)")
        profit_out = gr.Number(label="Profit per Insured Player ($)")
        insured_out = gr.Number(label="Players Insured Per Year")

    with gr.Row():
        insured_t1_out = gr.Number(label="Expected Tier 1 Insured ")
        insured_t2_out = gr.Number(label="Expected Tier 2 Insured ")
        precision_out = gr.Number(label="Precision Among Insured ")

    sensitivity = gr.Plot(label="Sensitivity Analysis")

    run_btn = gr.Button("Run Simulation", variant="primary")

    run_btn.click(
        fn=run_simulator,
        inputs=[
            tier1_contract,
            tier2_contract,
            premium_rate,
            injury_rate,
            combine_players,
            insured_pct_players,
            payout_pct_contract,
        ],
        outputs=[
            annual_out,
            profit_out,
            insured_out,
            insured_t1_out,
            insured_t2_out,
            precision_out,
            sensitivity
        ],
    )


if __name__ == "__main__":
    demo.launch(
        theme=gr.themes.Soft(),
        css=custom_css,
        share=True
    )