Release Safe Bet AI v2.2 Precision

.dockerignore

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
-.git
-.github
-__pycache__
-*.pyc
-.pytest_cache
+.git/
+.github/
+**/__pycache__/
+**/*.py[cod]
+**/.pytest_cache/
+.venv/
 .env
 data/*
 !data/.gitkeep

.gitignore

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+.env
+.venv/
+__pycache__/
+*.py[cod]
+.pytest_cache/
+data/*.json
+data/*.corrupt

CHECKSUMS.sha256

@@ -1,36 +1,40 @@
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Dockerfile

@@ -5,14 +5,21 @@ ENV PYTHONDONTWRITEBYTECODE=1 \
     PIP_NO_CACHE_DIR=1 \
     PORT=7860
 
-WORKDIR /app
+RUN useradd --create-home --uid 1000 user
 
-COPY requirements.txt .
+ENV HOME=/home/user \
+    PATH=/home/user/.local/bin:$PATH
+
+WORKDIR $HOME/app
+
+COPY --chown=user:user requirements.txt .
 RUN pip install --upgrade pip && pip install -r requirements.txt
 
-COPY . .
+COPY --chown=user:user . .
+
+USER user
 
-RUN mkdir -p /app/data && \
+RUN mkdir -p $HOME/app/data && \
     python -m compileall -q app
 
 EXPOSE 7860

PRECISION_REVIEW.md

@@ -1,5 +1,8 @@
 # Revisão profunda de precisão — v2.1-precision
 
+> Documento histórico da revisão v2.1. Para as mudanças atuais, consulte
+> `RELEASE_NOTES_v2.2.md`.
+
 Esta revisão focou em erros silenciosos que podem produzir uma confiança artificialmente alta.
 
 ## 1. Correções críticas

README.md

@@ -8,12 +8,18 @@ app_port: 7860
 pinned: false
 ---
 
-# SAFE BET AI — Precision v2.1
+# SAFE BET AI — Precision v2.2
 
 Motor quantitativo de futebol para Docker Space, desenhado para **rejeitar apostas frágeis** em vez de forçar uma lista.
 
 ## O que mudou nesta versão
 
+- Painel completamente redesenhado, responsivo, acessível e sem dependências externas.
+- Validação walk-forward agora separa tuning e holdout temporal para reduzir otimismo.
+- Scans concorrentes compartilham uma única tarefa e sobrevivem à desconexão do cliente.
+- Falhas totais de providers preservam o estado anterior; falhas parciais ficam como `degraded`.
+- Liquidação usa IDs resolvidos de times e mantém trilha de publicação/partida liquidada.
+- Storage Bucket montado em `/data` é usado automaticamente quando disponível.
 - Histórico **separado por competição** para impedir misturas entre ligas.
 - Matching de times com IDs/aliases do football-data.org e detecção de ambiguidade.
 - Resultado histórico usa **tempo regulamentar** quando disponível (importante em mata-mata/1X2).
@@ -28,7 +34,7 @@ Motor quantitativo de futebol para Docker Space, desenhado para **rejeitar apost
 - The Odds API consulta primeiro `/sports`, que não consome quota, para ignorar ligas fora de temporada.
 - Forward tracking não duplica o mesmo evento caso a seleção mude em outro scan.
 - Bilhetes recebem stress de dependência quando há muitas pernas da mesma competição.
-- 24 testes automatizados cobrindo matemática, matching, mercado, segurança HTTP, histórico e tickets.
+- Testes automatizados cobrindo matemática, matching, mercado, providers, segurança, histórico e tickets.
 
 > **SAFE não significa garantia.** O sistema estima risco e qualidade de dados; futebol continua sendo aleatório.
 
@@ -59,4 +65,4 @@ pytest -q
 - `/api/cron/daily` — cron protegido por `X-Cron-Secret`
 - `/api/admin/scan?wait=1` — scan manual protegido
 
-Leia **TUTORIAL.md** e **PRECISION_REVIEW.md** antes do deploy.
+Leia **TUTORIAL.md**, **PRECISION_REVIEW.md** e **RELEASE_NOTES_v2.2.md** antes do deploy.

RELEASE_NOTES_v2.2.md

@@ -0,0 +1,35 @@
+# Safe Bet AI — Release Notes v2.2-precision
+
+## Precisão e integridade
+
+- O ajuste de pesos usa uma janela temporal de tuning e um holdout posterior separado.
+- A confiança do ensemble é regulada pela amostra e pelo Brier Skill do holdout.
+- Eventos ainda abertos de outra versão não são republicados nem duplicados no histórico.
+- Picks guardam os IDs resolvidos dos times; a liquidação prefere IDs exatos e registra o ID da partida.
+- Eventos iniciados não entram na análise e partidas não são liquidadas antes do tempo plausível de término.
+
+## Robustez operacional
+
+- Scans manuais e agendados compartilham uma única tarefa protegida contra cancelamento do cliente.
+- Estado `scanning` interrompido por reinício é recuperado explicitamente.
+- Falha total de um provider preserva o último estado; falha parcial gera estado `degraded`.
+- Respostas malformadas, JSON não finito e registros históricos inválidos são isolados com segurança.
+- Credenciais refletidas por providers são removidas das mensagens de erro.
+- Regiões e ligas inválidas falham de forma fechada para não desperdiçar quota.
+- Cada retry do football-data.org passa pelo rate guard.
+- O Storage Bucket em `/data` é detectado automaticamente e o backup em Dataset usa um único commit.
+
+## Painel e deploy
+
+- Interface profissional de apostas esportivas, responsiva e acessível.
+- KPIs, cards de picks, auditoria dos modelos, comparador manual de odds e três perfis de bilhete.
+- Estados de carregamento, scan, operação parcial, interrupção e erro tratados no frontend.
+- CSP e cabeçalhos de segurança compatíveis com o iframe oficial do Hugging Face.
+- Container executa como usuário não-root UID 1000, conforme recomendação do Hugging Face.
+
+## Validação local
+
+- `pytest -q`: 44 testes aprovados.
+- `python -m compileall -q app tests`: aprovado.
+- `node --check app/static/app.js`: aprovado.
+- Contratos HTML/JavaScript, CSP e diff Git: aprovados.

TUTORIAL.md

@@ -161,7 +161,8 @@ Você deve receber JSON com:
 ```json
 {
   "ok": true,
-  "version": "2.1-precision"
+  "ready": true,
+  "version": "2.2-precision"
 }
 ```
 
@@ -225,11 +226,12 @@ warnings
 rejected_preview
 ```
 
-Estado normal:
+Estados normais:
 
 ```text
 status = ok
-model_version = 2.1-precision
+status = degraded  # scan concluído, mas algum provider teve falha parcial
+model_version = 2.2-precision
 ```
 
 Se `picks` estiver vazio, veja `rejected_preview`.
@@ -458,10 +460,10 @@ python -m compileall -q app tests
 pytest -q
 ```
 
-A revisão entregue passou:
+A revisão v2.2 passou:
 
 ```text
-24 passed
+44 passed
 ```
 
 Também foram testados:

app/config.py

@@ -8,7 +8,20 @@ from app.core.competitions import COMPETITIONS
 
 
 DEFAULT_SPORT_KEYS = tuple(COMPETITIONS.keys())
-MODEL_VERSION = "2.1-precision"
+MODEL_VERSION = "2.2-precision"
+VALID_ODDS_REGIONS = frozenset({"us", "us2", "uk", "au", "eu"})
+
+
+def _default_data_dir() -> Path:
+    """Prefer the persistent volume mounted by Hugging Face Spaces."""
+    configured = os.getenv("DATA_DIR", "").strip()
+    if configured:
+        return Path(configured).expanduser()
+
+    persistent_root = Path("/data")
+    if persistent_root.is_dir():
+        return persistent_root / "safe-bet-ai"
+    return Path("/app/data") if Path("/app").is_dir() else Path("./data")
 
 
 def _int(name: str, default: int, minimum: int, maximum: int) -> int:
@@ -27,13 +40,25 @@ def _float(name: str, default: float, minimum: float, maximum: float) -> float:
     return max(minimum, min(maximum, value))
 
 
+def _odds_regions() -> str:
+    raw = os.getenv("ODDS_REGIONS")
+    if raw is None:
+        return "eu"
+    unique = list(dict.fromkeys(
+        part.strip().lower() for part in raw.split(",") if part.strip()
+    ))
+    if not unique or any(region not in VALID_ODDS_REGIONS for region in unique):
+        return ""
+    return ",".join(unique)
+
+
 @dataclass(frozen=True)
 class Settings:
     football_data_token: str = field(default_factory=lambda: os.getenv("FOOTBALL_DATA_TOKEN", "").strip())
     odds_api_key: str = field(default_factory=lambda: os.getenv("ODDS_API_KEY", "").strip())
     cron_secret: str = field(default_factory=lambda: os.getenv("CRON_SECRET", "").strip())
 
-    odds_regions: str = field(default_factory=lambda: os.getenv("ODDS_REGIONS", "eu").strip() or "eu")
+    odds_regions: str = field(default_factory=_odds_regions)
     history_days: int = field(default_factory=lambda: _int("HISTORY_DAYS", 240, 120, 730))
     scan_horizon_hours: int = field(default_factory=lambda: _int("SCAN_HORIZON_HOURS", 36, 6, 96))
     min_scan_interval_minutes: int = field(default_factory=lambda: _int("MIN_SCAN_INTERVAL_MINUTES", 180, 15, 1440))
@@ -48,22 +73,29 @@ class Settings:
     hf_token: str = field(default_factory=lambda: (os.getenv("HF_WRITE_TOKEN", "").strip() or os.getenv("HF_TOKEN", "").strip()))
     hf_dataset_repo: str = field(default_factory=lambda: os.getenv("HF_DATASET_REPO", "").strip())
 
-    data_dir: Path = field(default_factory=lambda: Path(os.getenv("DATA_DIR", "/app/data" if Path("/app").exists() else "./data")))
+    data_dir: Path = field(default_factory=_default_data_dir)
 
     @property
     def sport_keys(self) -> tuple[str, ...]:
         raw = os.getenv("ODDS_SPORT_KEYS", "").strip()
         if not raw:
             return DEFAULT_SPORT_KEYS
-        keys = tuple(x.strip() for x in raw.split(",") if x.strip())
-        # Unknown leagues are ignored by the precision engine because we cannot
-        # safely join them to football-data.org history.
-        supported = tuple(k for k in keys if k in COMPETITIONS)
-        return supported or DEFAULT_SPORT_KEYS
+        keys = tuple(dict.fromkeys(x.strip() for x in raw.split(",") if x.strip()))
+        # Fail closed when any requested league cannot be joined safely to
+        # football-data.org history; silently falling back would waste quota.
+        if not keys or any(key not in COMPETITIONS for key in keys):
+            return ()
+        return keys
 
     @property
     def required_ready(self) -> bool:
-        return bool(self.football_data_token and self.odds_api_key and self.cron_secret)
+        return bool(
+            self.football_data_token
+            and self.odds_api_key
+            and self.cron_secret
+            and self.odds_regions
+            and self.sport_keys
+        )
 
 
 settings = Settings()

app/core/analyzer.py

@@ -132,6 +132,9 @@ def analyze_events(
         if kickoff is None:
             rejected.append({"event": event_name, "reason": "horário inválido"})
             continue
+        if kickoff <= datetime.now(timezone.utc):
+            rejected.append({"event": event_name, "reason": "evento já iniciado"})
+            continue
 
         market = market_consensus(event)
         if market.bookmakers < 1 or market.home_prob is None or market.away_prob is None or market.draw_prob is None:
@@ -182,10 +185,11 @@ def analyze_events(
         )
 
         tuning = tuning_by_comp[comp_code]
-        tuning_samples = float(tuning["samples"])
+        tuning_total_samples = float(tuning["samples"])
+        tuning_samples = float(tuning.get("validation_samples", tuning_total_samples))
         tuning_skill = float(tuning.get("brier_skill", 0.0))
-        if tuning_samples >= 18:
-            sample_validation = _clamp((tuning_samples - 18.0) / 38.0)
+        if tuning_samples >= 10:
+            sample_validation = _clamp((tuning_samples - 10.0) / 12.0)
             skill_validation = _clamp((tuning_skill + 0.03) / 0.12)
             model_validation = 0.35 * sample_validation + 0.65 * skill_validation
         else:
@@ -229,6 +233,7 @@ def analyze_events(
         ]
 
         best = None
+        best_rejected = None
         previous = previous_by_event.get(str(event.get("id") or ""))
 
         for side, selection, idx, odd, mprob in candidate_rows:
@@ -276,6 +281,9 @@ def analyze_events(
 
             market_move = 0.0
             selection_changed = False
+            version_conflict = bool(
+                previous and previous.get("model_version") != MODEL_VERSION
+            )
             if previous and previous.get("model_version") == MODEL_VERSION:
                 if previous.get("side") == side and isinstance(previous.get("market_probability"), (int, float)):
                     market_move = float(mprob) - float(previous["market_probability"])
@@ -303,12 +311,14 @@ def analyze_events(
                 reasons.append("modelo interno diverge demais do mercado")
             if not 1.15 <= float(odd) <= 2.15:
                 reasons.append("odd de referência fora da faixa SAFE")
-            if ev < -0.025:
-                reasons.append("preço de referência fraco")
+            if ev < 0.0:
+                reasons.append("retorno esperado negativo no preço de referência")
             if market_move < -0.04:
                 reasons.append("movimento de mercado relevante contra a seleção")
             if selection_changed:
                 reasons.append("seleção mudou desde o último scan")
+            if version_conflict:
+                reasons.append("evento já rastreado por uma versão anterior")
             if score < min_safe_score:
                 reasons.append("SafeScore abaixo do mínimo")
 
@@ -354,6 +364,7 @@ def analyze_events(
                     "weight_elo": float(model["weight_elo"]),
                     "weight_form": float(model["weight_form"]),
                     "tuning_samples": tuning_samples,
+                    "tuning_total_samples": tuning_total_samples,
                     "tuning_brier": float(tuning["brier"]),
                     "tuning_climatology_brier": float(tuning.get("climatology_brier", 0.0)),
                     "tuning_brier_skill": tuning_skill,
@@ -361,28 +372,33 @@ def analyze_events(
                 },
             }
 
-            if best is None or (
-                row["conservative"],
-                row["score"],
-                row["ev"],
-            ) > (
+            rank = (row["conservative"], row["score"], row["ev"])
+            if row["reasons"]:
+                if best_rejected is None or rank > (
+                    best_rejected["conservative"],
+                    best_rejected["score"],
+                    best_rejected["ev"],
+                ):
+                    best_rejected = row
+            elif best is None or rank > (
                 best["conservative"],
                 best["score"],
                 best["ev"],
             ):
                 best = row
 
-        if not best:
+        if best is None and best_rejected is None:
             rejected.append({"event": event_name, "reason": "mercado incompleto"})
             continue
 
-        if best["reasons"]:
+        if best is None:
+            assert best_rejected is not None
             rejected.append({
                 "event": event_name,
-                "reason": "; ".join(best["reasons"]),
-                "safe_score": round(best["score"], 1),
-                "probability": round(best["p"], 4),
-                "conservative_probability": round(best["conservative"], 4),
+                "reason": "; ".join(best_rejected["reasons"]),
+                "safe_score": round(best_rejected["score"], 1),
+                "probability": round(best_rejected["p"], 4),
+                "conservative_probability": round(best_rejected["conservative"], 4),
             })
             continue
 
@@ -417,6 +433,8 @@ def analyze_events(
             competition_code=comp_code,
             home=home_api,
             away=away_api,
+            resolved_home_key=home_identity.key,
+            resolved_away_key=away_identity.key,
             selection=best["selection"],
             side=best["side"],
             odd=round(best["odd"], 3),

app/core/calibration.py

@@ -20,6 +20,8 @@ def calibrate_probability(
         if r.get("result") in {"win", "loss"}
         and r.get("model_version") == model_version
         and isinstance(r.get("probability"), (int, float))
+        and math.isfinite(float(r["probability"]))
+        and 0.0 <= float(r["probability"]) <= 1.0
     ]
     if not records:
         return probability, {"effective_samples": 0.0, "delta": 0.0}

app/core/history.py

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
 import math
 
 from app.core.names import similarity
@@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ def settle_history(history: list[dict], matches: list[FinishedMatch]) -> None:
     if not unresolved:
         return
 
+    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
     for record in unresolved:
         kickoff_raw = record.get("kickoff", "")
         try:
@@ -26,15 +27,27 @@ def settle_history(history: list[dict], matches: list[FinishedMatch]) -> None:
                 kick = kick.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
         except Exception:
             continue
+        if now < kick + timedelta(hours=2):
+            continue
 
         competition_code = str(record.get("competition_code") or "")
+        resolved_home_key = str(record.get("resolved_home_key") or "")
+        resolved_away_key = str(record.get("resolved_away_key") or "")
         best_match = None
         best_score = 0.0
 
         for m in matches:
             if competition_code and m.competition != competition_code:
                 continue
-            if abs((m.utc_date - kick).total_seconds()) > 30 * 3600:
+            time_delta = abs((m.utc_date - kick).total_seconds())
+            if time_delta > 12 * 3600:
+                continue
+
+            if resolved_home_key and resolved_away_key:
+                if m.home_key == resolved_home_key and m.away_key == resolved_away_key:
+                    score = 300.0 - time_delta / 3600.0
+                    if score > best_score:
+                        best_score, best_match = score, m
                 continue
 
             home_score = _team_match_score(
@@ -66,8 +79,14 @@ def settle_history(history: list[dict], matches: list[FinishedMatch]) -> None:
         won = winner == record.get("side")
         record["result"] = "win" if won else "loss"
         record["settled_at"] = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
+        record["settled_match_id"] = best_match.match_id
         record["score"] = f"{best_match.home_goals}-{best_match.away_goals}"
-        odd = float(record.get("odd", 1.0))
+        try:
+            odd = float(record.get("odd", 1.0))
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            odd = 1.0
+        if not math.isfinite(odd) or odd < 1.0:
+            odd = 1.0
         record["profit_units"] = round(odd - 1.0, 4) if won else -1.0
 
 
@@ -96,6 +115,12 @@ def append_new_picks(history: list[dict], picks: list[dict]) -> None:
                 existing["competition_code"] = p.get(
                     "competition_code", existing.get("competition_code")
                 )
+                existing["resolved_home_key"] = p.get(
+                    "resolved_home_key", existing.get("resolved_home_key")
+                )
+                existing["resolved_away_key"] = p.get(
+                    "resolved_away_key", existing.get("resolved_away_key")
+                )
             continue
 
         history.append({
@@ -105,6 +130,8 @@ def append_new_picks(history: list[dict], picks: list[dict]) -> None:
             "competition_code": p.get("competition_code"),
             "home": p["home"],
             "away": p["away"],
+            "resolved_home_key": p.get("resolved_home_key"),
+            "resolved_away_key": p.get("resolved_away_key"),
             "selection": p["selection"],
             "side": p["side"],
             "odd": p["odd"],
@@ -114,6 +141,7 @@ def append_new_picks(history: list[dict], picks: list[dict]) -> None:
             "conservative_probability": p.get("conservative_probability"),
             "safe_score": p["safe_score"],
             "model_version": p.get("model_version"),
+            "published_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
             "result": None,
             "profit_units": None,
         })
@@ -146,14 +174,25 @@ def performance_metrics(history: list[dict], model_version: str | None = None) -
         r for r in history
         if r.get("result") in {"win", "loss"}
         and isinstance(r.get("probability"), (int, float))
+        and math.isfinite(float(r["probability"]))
+        and 0.0 <= float(r["probability"]) <= 1.0
     ]
     settled = (
         [r for r in settled_all if r.get("model_version") == model_version]
         if model_version is not None
         else settled_all
     )
+    settled = sorted(settled, key=lambda row: str(row.get("kickoff") or ""))
     wins = sum(1 for r in settled if r["result"] == "win")
-    units = sum(float(r.get("profit_units") or 0.0) for r in settled)
+
+    def profit_units(row: dict) -> float:
+        try:
+            value = float(row.get("profit_units") or 0.0)
+            return value if math.isfinite(value) else 0.0
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            return 0.0
+
+    units = sum(profit_units(r) for r in settled)
     stake = len(settled)
 
     brier = None
@@ -181,7 +220,7 @@ def performance_metrics(history: list[dict], model_version: str | None = None) -
     peak = 0.0
     max_drawdown = 0.0
     for r in settled:
-        bankroll += float(r.get("profit_units") or 0.0)
+        bankroll += profit_units(r)
         peak = max(peak, bankroll)
         max_drawdown = max(max_drawdown, peak - bankroll)
 

app/core/market.py

@@ -47,18 +47,32 @@ def market_consensus(event: dict, max_age_hours: float = 12.0) -> MarketConsensu
     rows: list[tuple[float, float, float, float, float, float, str]] = []
     stale = 0
 
-    for bookmaker in event.get("bookmakers", []) or []:
+    bookmakers = event.get("bookmakers", [])
+    if not isinstance(bookmakers, list):
+        bookmakers = []
+
+    for bookmaker in bookmakers:
+        if not isinstance(bookmaker, dict):
+            continue
         age = _book_age_hours(bookmaker)
         if age is not None and age > max_age_hours:
             stale += 1
             continue
 
-        market = next((m for m in bookmaker.get("markets", []) if m.get("key") == "h2h"), None)
+        markets = bookmaker.get("markets", [])
+        if not isinstance(markets, list):
+            continue
+        market = next(
+            (m for m in markets if isinstance(m, dict) and m.get("key") == "h2h"),
+            None,
+        )
         if not market:
             continue
 
         found: dict[str, float | None] = {"home": None, "draw": None, "away": None}
         for outcome in market.get("outcomes", []) or []:
+            if not isinstance(outcome, dict):
+                continue
             name = str(outcome.get("name", ""))
             try:
                 price = float(outcome.get("price"))

app/core/stats.py

@@ -352,8 +352,9 @@ def tune_ensemble_weights(
     Time-aware competition-level weight tuning.
 
     Every evaluation match is predicted using only matches that happened before it.
-    The selected weights minimize multiclass Brier score on the walk-forward slice,
-    then are shrunk toward a conservative prior to reduce overfitting.
+    The selected weights minimize multiclass Brier score on the older part of the
+    walk-forward slice, are shrunk toward a conservative prior, and are accepted
+    only when they hold up on the newer validation part.
     """
     ordered = sorted(
         [m for m in matches if m.competition == competition],
@@ -363,6 +364,7 @@ def tune_ensemble_weights(
         return {
             "weights": (0.46, 0.34, 0.20),
             "samples": 0.0,
+            "validation_samples": 0.0,
             "brier": 0.0,
             "default_brier": 0.0,
             "climatology_brier": 0.0,
@@ -428,6 +430,7 @@ def tune_ensemble_weights(
         return {
             "weights": (0.46, 0.34, 0.20),
             "samples": float(len(rows)),
+            "validation_samples": 0.0,
             "brier": 0.0,
             "default_brier": 0.0,
             "climatology_brier": 0.0,
@@ -435,20 +438,28 @@ def tune_ensemble_weights(
             "gain": 0.0,
         }
 
-    def brier(weights: tuple[float, float, float]) -> float:
+    # Tune weights on the older part of the walk-forward predictions and report
+    # skill only on the newer holdout. The base predictions are time-safe, but
+    # selecting and scoring weights on the same slice would still be optimistic.
+    split_at = max(12, int(len(rows) * 0.70))
+    split_at = min(split_at, len(rows) - 6)
+    tuning_rows = rows[:split_at]
+    validation_rows = rows[split_at:]
+
+    def brier(weights: tuple[float, float, float], sample=validation_rows) -> float:
         pw, ew, fw = weights
         total = 0.0
-        for pp, ep, fp, _clim, y in rows:
+        for pp, ep, fp, _clim, y in sample:
             pred = tuple(pw * pp[i] + ew * ep[i] + fw * fp[i] for i in range(3))
             total += sum((pred[i] - y[i]) ** 2 for i in range(3)) / 3.0
-        return total / len(rows)
+        return total / len(sample)
 
     default = (0.46, 0.34, 0.20)
     default_brier = brier(default)
     climatology_brier = sum(
         sum((clim[i] - y[i]) ** 2 for i in range(3)) / 3.0
-        for _pp, _ep, _fp, clim, y in rows
-    ) / len(rows)
+        for _pp, _ep, _fp, clim, y in validation_rows
+    ) / len(validation_rows)
     candidates: list[tuple[float, float, float]] = [default]
     # Coarse grid is deliberate; a fine grid would overfit the short walk-forward
     # sample and create fake precision.
@@ -460,11 +471,10 @@ def tune_ensemble_weights(
             if 0.10 <= fw <= 0.40:
                 candidates.append((pw, ew, fw))
 
-    best = min(candidates, key=brier)
-    best_brier = brier(best)
+    best = min(candidates, key=lambda weights: brier(weights, tuning_rows))
 
     # Empirical-Bayes style shrinkage toward prior weights.
-    trust = min(0.70, len(rows) / (len(rows) + 45.0))
+    trust = min(0.70, len(tuning_rows) / (len(tuning_rows) + 45.0))
     shrunk = tuple(default[i] * (1.0 - trust) + best[i] * trust for i in range(3))
     total_w = sum(shrunk)
     shrunk = tuple(w / total_w for w in shrunk)
@@ -485,6 +495,7 @@ def tune_ensemble_weights(
     return {
         "weights": shrunk,
         "samples": float(len(rows)),
+        "validation_samples": float(len(validation_rows)),
         "brier": float(shrunk_brier),
         "default_brier": float(default_brier),
         "climatology_brier": float(climatology_brier),

app/core/tickets.py

@@ -58,9 +58,12 @@ def optimize_ticket(
             dependency_factor, same_comp_pairs = _dependency_penalty(combo)
             joint_p = joint_p_raw * dependency_factor
             joint_lower = joint_lower_raw * dependency_factor * 0.99
+            estimated_ev = joint_p * odd - 1.0
+            if estimated_ev < 0.0:
+                continue
             avg_score = sum(float(p["safe_score"]) for p in combo) / size
 
-            target_met = odd >= target_odd * 0.98
+            target_met = odd >= target_odd
             if odd < target_odd:
                 distance = math.log(max(target_odd / max(odd, 1e-9), 1.0))
                 target_penalty = 38.0 * distance
@@ -73,7 +76,7 @@ def optimize_ticket(
             utility = (
                 105.0 * joint_lower
                 + 0.18 * avg_score
-                + 8.0 * max(0.0, joint_p * odd - 1.0)
+                + 8.0 * estimated_ev
                 - target_penalty
                 - 0.7 * same_comp_pairs
             )
@@ -84,7 +87,7 @@ def optimize_ticket(
                 "total_odd": round(odd, 2),
                 "joint_probability": round(joint_p, 4),
                 "joint_conservative": round(joint_lower, 4),
-                "estimated_ev": round(joint_p * odd - 1.0, 4),
+                "estimated_ev": round(estimated_ev, 4),
                 "dependency_factor": round(dependency_factor, 4),
                 "same_competition_pairs": same_comp_pairs,
                 "legs": [

app/main.py

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 from contextlib import asynccontextmanager
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 import hmac
 import logging
 from pathlib import Path
@@ -26,15 +27,31 @@ pipeline = DailyPipeline(settings, store)
 
 def _authorized(secret: str | None) -> bool:
     expected = settings.cron_secret
-    return bool(expected and secret and hmac.compare_digest(expected, secret))
+    return bool(
+        expected
+        and secret
+        and hmac.compare_digest(expected.encode("utf-8"), secret.encode("utf-8"))
+    )
 
 
 @asynccontextmanager
 async def lifespan(app: FastAPI):
     logger.info("Safe Bet AI %s iniciando", MODEL_VERSION)
     store.restore_from_hub_if_needed()
-    yield
-    logger.info("Safe Bet AI encerrando")
+    state = store.load_state()
+    if state.get("status") == "scanning":
+        state["status"] = "interrupted"
+        state["last_error"] = "O processo anterior foi reiniciado durante um scan."
+        state["last_error_at"] = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
+        state["warnings"] = list(state.get("warnings") or [])[-4:] + [
+            "Scan anterior interrompido por reinício; execute uma nova varredura."
+        ]
+        store.save_state(state)
+    try:
+        yield
+    finally:
+        await pipeline.shutdown()
+        logger.info("Safe Bet AI encerrando")
 
 
 app = FastAPI(
@@ -45,6 +62,30 @@ app = FastAPI(
     lifespan=lifespan,
 )
 
+
+@app.middleware("http")
+async def harden_responses(request: Request, call_next):
+    response = await call_next(request)
+    response.headers.setdefault("X-Content-Type-Options", "nosniff")
+    response.headers.setdefault("Referrer-Policy", "strict-origin-when-cross-origin")
+    response.headers.setdefault(
+        "Permissions-Policy",
+        "camera=(), microphone=(), geolocation=(), payment=(), usb=()",
+    )
+    if request.url.path.startswith(("/api/", "/static/")):
+        response.headers.setdefault("Cross-Origin-Resource-Policy", "same-origin")
+    if request.url.path.startswith("/api/"):
+        response.headers["Cache-Control"] = "no-store"
+    elif not request.url.path.startswith(("/docs", "/openapi.json")):
+        response.headers.setdefault(
+            "Content-Security-Policy",
+            "default-src 'self'; base-uri 'self'; "
+            "frame-ancestors https://huggingface.co https://*.huggingface.co; "
+            "form-action 'self'; img-src 'self' data:; style-src 'self'; "
+            "script-src 'self'; connect-src 'self'",
+        )
+    return response
+
 app.mount("/static", StaticFiles(directory=BASE_DIR / "static"), name="static")
 templates = Jinja2Templates(directory=BASE_DIR / "templates")
 
@@ -64,17 +105,19 @@ async def index(request: Request):
 @app.get("/api/health")
 async def health():
     state = store.load_state()
+    configured = {
+        "football_data": bool(settings.football_data_token),
+        "odds_api": bool(settings.odds_api_key),
+        "cron_secret": bool(settings.cron_secret),
+        "hub_backup": bool(settings.hf_token and settings.hf_dataset_repo),
+    }
     return {
         "ok": True,
+        "ready": settings.required_ready,
         "service": "safe-bet-ai",
         "version": MODEL_VERSION,
         "pipeline_running": pipeline.running,
-        "configured": {
-            "football_data": bool(settings.football_data_token),
-            "odds_api": bool(settings.odds_api_key),
-            "cron_secret": bool(settings.cron_secret),
-            "hub_backup": bool(settings.hf_token and settings.hf_dataset_repo),
-        },
+        "configured": configured,
         "last_status": state.get("status"),
         "generated_at": state.get("generated_at"),
         "time": time.time(),
@@ -115,12 +158,19 @@ async def cron_daily(x_cron_secret: str | None = Header(default=None)):
 
 @app.post("/api/admin/scan")
 async def admin_scan(
-    wait: int = 0,
+    wait: bool = False,
+    force: bool = False,
     x_cron_secret: str | None = Header(default=None),
 ):
     if not _authorized(x_cron_secret):
         raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="X-Cron-Secret inválido")
+    if not force and pipeline.recent_success(settings.min_scan_interval_minutes):
+        return {
+            "accepted": False,
+            "message": "scan recente já concluído; use force=1 somente se necessário",
+            "model_version": MODEL_VERSION,
+        }
     if wait:
-        return await pipeline.scan()
+        return await pipeline.trigger_and_wait()
     accepted = pipeline.trigger_background()
     return {"accepted": accepted, "model_version": MODEL_VERSION}

app/models.py

@@ -60,6 +60,8 @@ class Pick:
     competition_code: str
     home: str
     away: str
+    resolved_home_key: str
+    resolved_away_key: str
     selection: str
     side: str
     odd: float

app/pipeline.py

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 import asyncio
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from functools import partial
 import logging
 
 from app.config import MODEL_VERSION, Settings
@@ -25,11 +26,11 @@ class DailyPipeline:
 
     @property
     def running(self) -> bool:
-        return bool(self._task and not self._task.done())
+        return self._lock.locked() or bool(self._task and not self._task.done())
 
     def recent_success(self, minutes: int) -> bool:
         state = self.store.load_state()
-        if state.get("status") != "ok" or not state.get("generated_at"):
+        if state.get("status") not in {"ok", "degraded"} or not state.get("generated_at"):
             return False
         try:
             generated = datetime.fromisoformat(str(state["generated_at"]).replace("Z", "+00:00"))
@@ -46,6 +47,26 @@ class DailyPipeline:
         self._task = asyncio.create_task(self.scan())
         return True
 
+    async def trigger_and_wait(self) -> dict:
+        if self._task is not None and not self._task.done():
+            return await asyncio.shield(self._task)
+        if self._lock.locked():
+            return {"accepted": False, "reason": "scan já em execução"}
+        self._task = asyncio.create_task(self.scan())
+        # A client disconnect must not cancel a scan after provider quota has
+        # already been consumed. The shared task continues and persists state.
+        return await asyncio.shield(self._task)
+
+    async def shutdown(self) -> None:
+        task = self._task
+        if task is None or task.done():
+            return
+        task.cancel()
+        try:
+            await task
+        except asyncio.CancelledError:
+            logger.info("Scan em segundo plano cancelado durante o encerramento")
+
     async def scan(self) -> dict:
         if self._lock.locked():
             return {"accepted": False, "reason": "scan já em execução"}
@@ -54,12 +75,32 @@ class DailyPipeline:
             started = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
             previous = self.store.load_state()
 
-            if not self.settings.football_data_token or not self.settings.odds_api_key:
+            configuration_errors: list[str] = []
+            if not self.settings.football_data_token:
+                configuration_errors.append("FOOTBALL_DATA_TOKEN")
+            if not self.settings.odds_api_key:
+                configuration_errors.append("ODDS_API_KEY")
+            if not self.settings.odds_regions:
+                configuration_errors.append("ODDS_REGIONS inválido")
+            if not self.settings.sport_keys:
+                configuration_errors.append("ODDS_SPORT_KEYS sem liga suportada")
+
+            if configuration_errors:
                 previous["status"] = "configuration_error"
-                previous["last_error"] = "Configure FOOTBALL_DATA_TOKEN e ODDS_API_KEY nos Secrets."
+                previous["last_error"] = "Configuração pendente: " + ", ".join(configuration_errors)
                 self.store.save_state(previous)
                 return previous
 
+            scanning_state = dict(previous)
+            scanning_state.update({
+                "status": "scanning",
+                "started_at": started.isoformat(),
+                "model_version": MODEL_VERSION,
+            })
+            scanning_state.pop("last_error", None)
+            scanning_state.pop("last_error_at", None)
+            self.store.save_state(scanning_state)
+
             http = ResilientHTTP(timeout=24.0, retries=3)
             football = FootballDataProvider(self.settings.football_data_token, http)
             odds = OddsAPIProvider(self.settings.odds_api_key, http, self.settings.odds_regions)
@@ -76,22 +117,34 @@ class DailyPipeline:
                 history = self.store.load_history()
                 settle_history(history, matches)
 
+                # Keep the first published recommendation as the event anchor even
+                # if an intermediate scan temporarily removed it from the dashboard.
+                # This prevents a later opposite selection from looking "new".
+                tracked_open = [
+                    row for row in history
+                    if row.get("result") is None and row.get("event_id")
+                ]
+                previous_context = list(previous.get("picks") or []) + tracked_open
+
                 events = await odds.fetch_events(
                     self.settings.sport_keys,
                     self.settings.scan_horizon_hours,
                 )
 
-                picks, rejected = analyze_events(
-                    events,
-                    matches,
-                    min_safe_score=self.settings.min_safe_score,
-                    limit=self.settings.top_picks_limit,
-                    calibration_history=history,
-                    previous_picks=previous.get("picks") or [],
-                    min_probability=self.settings.min_probability,
-                    min_conservative_probability=self.settings.min_conservative_probability,
-                    min_bookmakers=self.settings.min_bookmakers,
-                    min_name_score=self.settings.min_name_score,
+                picks, rejected = await asyncio.to_thread(
+                    partial(
+                        analyze_events,
+                        events,
+                        matches,
+                        min_safe_score=self.settings.min_safe_score,
+                        limit=self.settings.top_picks_limit,
+                        calibration_history=history,
+                        previous_picks=previous_context,
+                        min_probability=self.settings.min_probability,
+                        min_conservative_probability=self.settings.min_conservative_probability,
+                        min_bookmakers=self.settings.min_bookmakers,
+                        min_name_score=self.settings.min_name_score,
+                    )
                 )
                 pick_dicts = [p.as_dict() for p in picks]
 
@@ -121,11 +174,18 @@ class DailyPipeline:
                     warnings.append(
                         f"{len(odds.inactive_keys)} liga(s) estavam fora de temporada e foram ignoradas sem gastar consulta de odds."
                     )
+                if odds.errors:
+                    warnings.append(
+                        f"{len(odds.errors)} consulta(s) de odds falharam; as demais ligas foram processadas."
+                    )
 
+                finished = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+                degraded = bool(football_meta.get("errors") or odds.errors)
                 state = {
-                    "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+                    "generated_at": finished.isoformat(),
                     "started_at": started.isoformat(),
-                    "status": "ok",
+                    "duration_seconds": round((finished - started).total_seconds(), 2),
+                    "status": "degraded" if degraded else "ok",
                     "model_version": MODEL_VERSION,
                     "summary": {
                         "events": len(events),
@@ -138,15 +198,19 @@ class DailyPipeline:
                     "performance": performance,
                     "providers": {
                         "football_data": {
-                            "ok": True,
+                            "ok": not bool(football_meta.get("errors")),
                             "matches": len(matches),
                             "detail": football_meta,
                         },
                         "odds_api": {
-                            "ok": True,
+                            "ok": not bool(odds.errors),
                             "quota": odds.quota,
+                            "regions": self.settings.odds_regions.split(","),
+                            "estimated_cost_per_league": odds.region_count,
                             "sport_keys": list(self.settings.sport_keys),
+                            "queried_keys": odds.queried_keys,
                             "inactive_keys": odds.inactive_keys,
+                            "errors": odds.errors,
                         },
                     },
                     "warnings": warnings,
@@ -179,6 +243,8 @@ class DailyPipeline:
             except Exception as exc:
                 logger.exception("Falha no scan")
                 previous["status"] = "error"
+                previous["started_at"] = started.isoformat()
+                previous["model_version"] = MODEL_VERSION
                 previous["last_error"] = f"{type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"
                 previous["last_error_at"] = datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat()
                 previous.setdefault("warnings", [])

app/providers/football_data.py

@@ -37,16 +37,20 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
         self._request_times.append(time.monotonic())
 
     async def _get(self, url: str, params: dict) -> dict:
-        await self._rate_limit()
         payload, _ = await self.http.get_json(
             url,
             params=params,
             headers={"X-Auth-Token": self.token},
+            before_attempt=self._rate_limit,
         )
-        return payload or {}
+        if not isinstance(payload, dict):
+            raise ProviderError("football-data.org retornou JSON fora do formato esperado")
+        return payload
 
     @staticmethod
     def _team_aliases(team: dict) -> tuple[str, ...]:
+        if not isinstance(team, dict):
+            return ()
         aliases = {
             str(team.get("name") or "").strip(),
             str(team.get("shortName") or "").strip(),
@@ -56,13 +60,21 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
 
     @classmethod
     def _parse_match(cls, item: dict) -> FinishedMatch | None:
-        score_node = item.get("score") or {}
+        if not isinstance(item, dict):
+            return None
+        score_node = item.get("score")
+        if not isinstance(score_node, dict):
+            return None
         # 1X2 is a regulation-time market. For knockout games, football-data
         # exposes regularTime separately; fullTime can include extra time.
-        regular = score_node.get("regularTime") or {}
+        regular = score_node.get("regularTime")
+        if not isinstance(regular, dict):
+            regular = {}
         hg, ag = regular.get("home"), regular.get("away")
         if not isinstance(hg, int) or not isinstance(ag, int):
-            full = score_node.get("fullTime") or {}
+            full = score_node.get("fullTime")
+            if not isinstance(full, dict):
+                full = {}
             hg, ag = full.get("home"), full.get("away")
         if not isinstance(hg, int) or not isinstance(ag, int):
             return None
@@ -74,9 +86,11 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
         except Exception:
             return None
 
-        comp = item.get("competition") or {}
-        home = item.get("homeTeam") or {}
-        away = item.get("awayTeam") or {}
+        comp = item.get("competition")
+        home = item.get("homeTeam")
+        away = item.get("awayTeam")
+        if not isinstance(comp, dict) or not isinstance(home, dict) or not isinstance(away, dict):
+            return None
         home_name = str(home.get("name") or "").strip()
         away_name = str(away.get("name") or "").strip()
         if not home_name or not away_name:
@@ -103,15 +117,29 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
                 {"season": season, "status": "FINISHED"},
             )
         except ProviderError as exc:
+            message = str(exc).lower()
+            invalid_token = (
+                exc.status_code == 400
+                and "token" in message
+                and any(word in message for word in ("invalid", "missing", "invalido"))
+            )
+            if exc.status_code == 401 or invalid_token:
+                raise
             return [], f"{competition_code}/{season}: {exc}"
         except Exception as exc:
             return [], f"{competition_code}/{season}: {type(exc).__name__}: {exc}"
 
+        items = payload.get("matches")
+        if not isinstance(items, list):
+            return [], f"{competition_code}/{season}: resposta sem lista de partidas"
+
         out: list[FinishedMatch] = []
-        for item in payload.get("matches", []) or []:
+        for item in items:
             match = self._parse_match(item)
             if match:
                 out.append(match)
+        if items and not out:
+            return [], f"{competition_code}/{season}: nenhuma partida válida na resposta"
         return out, None
 
     @staticmethod
@@ -141,6 +169,7 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
             if m.utc_date >= cutoff and any(m.competition == s.football_data_code for s in specs)
         ]
         meta = {"competitions": {}, "errors": [], "cache_loaded": len(all_matches)}
+        successful_current_requests = 0
 
         for spec in specs:
             current_season = season_start_year(spec, now.date())
@@ -149,6 +178,8 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
             current, error = await self._fetch_season(spec.football_data_code, current_season)
             if error:
                 meta["errors"].append(error)
+            else:
+                successful_current_requests += 1
             all_matches.extend(current)
 
             recent_comp = [
@@ -182,6 +213,12 @@ class FootballDataProvider:
                 "previous_loaded": previous_loaded,
             }
 
+        if specs and successful_current_requests == 0 and meta["errors"]:
+            raise ProviderError(
+                "Todas as consultas atuais ao football-data.org falharam; "
+                "o estado anterior foi preservado"
+            )
+
         final = [
             m for m in self._merge(all_matches)
             if cutoff <= m.utc_date < now

app/providers/http_client.py

@@ -5,10 +5,12 @@ from email.utils import parsedate_to_datetime
 import logging
 import random
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
-from typing import Any
+from typing import Any, Awaitable, Callable
 
 import httpx
 
+from app.config import MODEL_VERSION
+
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 
@@ -37,7 +39,7 @@ class ResilientHTTP:
                 timeout=timeout,
                 follow_redirects=True,
                 limits=httpx.Limits(max_connections=8, max_keepalive_connections=4),
-                headers={"User-Agent": "SafeBetAI/2.1-precision"},
+                headers={"User-Agent": f"SafeBetAI/{MODEL_VERSION}"},
             )
         return self._client
 
@@ -63,6 +65,23 @@ class ResilientHTTP:
                     pass
         return min(1.2 * (2 ** attempt) + random.uniform(0.05, 0.55), 12.0)
 
+    @staticmethod
+    def _safe_error_detail(
+        response: httpx.Response,
+        params: dict[str, Any] | None,
+        headers: dict[str, str] | None,
+    ) -> str:
+        detail = response.text[:500].replace("\n", " ")
+        for mapping in (params or {}, headers or {}):
+            for key, value in mapping.items():
+                key_lower = str(key).lower()
+                if not any(marker in key_lower for marker in ("key", "token", "auth", "secret")):
+                    continue
+                secret = str(value)
+                if len(secret) >= 4:
+                    detail = detail.replace(secret, "[redacted]")
+        return detail
+
     async def get_json(
         self,
         url: str,
@@ -70,6 +89,7 @@ class ResilientHTTP:
         params: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
         headers: dict[str, str] | None = None,
         allow_status: set[int] | None = None,
+        before_attempt: Callable[[], Awaitable[None]] | None = None,
     ) -> tuple[Any, httpx.Headers]:
         allow_status = allow_status or set()
         last_exc: Exception | None = None
@@ -77,11 +97,13 @@ class ResilientHTTP:
 
         for attempt in range(self.retries):
             try:
+                if before_attempt is not None:
+                    await before_attempt()
                 response = await client.get(url, params=params, headers=headers)
                 if response.status_code in allow_status:
                     return None, response.headers
 
-                if response.status_code in (429, 500, 502, 503, 504):
+                if response.status_code in (408, 425, 429, 500, 502, 503, 504):
                     if attempt < self.retries - 1:
                         delay = self._retry_delay(response, attempt)
                         logger.warning(
@@ -96,7 +118,7 @@ class ResilientHTTP:
                         continue
 
                 if response.status_code >= 400:
-                    detail = response.text[:500].replace("\n", " ")
+                    detail = self._safe_error_detail(response, params, headers)
                     raise ProviderError(
                         f"HTTP {response.status_code} em {url}: {detail}",
                         response.status_code,

app/providers/odds_api.py

@@ -17,8 +17,11 @@ class OddsAPIProvider:
         self.api_key = api_key
         self.http = http
         self.regions = regions
+        self.region_count = max(1, len([part for part in regions.split(",") if part]))
         self.quota = {"remaining": None, "used": None, "last": None}
         self.inactive_keys: list[str] = []
+        self.queried_keys: list[str] = []
+        self.errors: list[str] = []
 
     async def _active_sport_keys(self) -> set[str] | None:
         try:
@@ -47,13 +50,16 @@ class OddsAPIProvider:
         now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
         end = now + timedelta(hours=horizon_hours)
         out: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
+        successful_requests = 0
 
         for key in sport_keys:
             remaining = self.quota.get("remaining")
-            if isinstance(remaining, int) and remaining <= 25:
+            reserve = max(25, self.region_count * 3)
+            if isinstance(remaining, int) and remaining <= reserve:
                 logger.warning(
-                    "Quota Guardian: apenas %d créditos restantes; interrompendo novas ligas",
+                    "Quota Guardian: apenas %d créditos restantes (reserva %d); interrompendo novas ligas",
                     remaining,
+                    reserve,
                 )
                 break
 
@@ -66,25 +72,44 @@ class OddsAPIProvider:
                 "commenceTimeFrom": now.isoformat().replace("+00:00", "Z"),
                 "commenceTimeTo": end.isoformat().replace("+00:00", "Z"),
             }
+            self.queried_keys.append(key)
             try:
                 payload, headers = await self.http.get_json(
                     f"{self.BASE}/sports/{key}/odds/",
                     params=params,
-                    allow_status={404, 422},
+                    allow_status={404},
                 )
             except ProviderError as exc:
-                if exc.status_code in {401, 403}:
+                if exc.status_code in {401, 403, 429}:
                     raise
                 logger.warning("Odds API falhou para %s: %s", key, exc)
+                self.errors.append(f"{key}: {exc}")
                 continue
 
             self._read_quota(headers)
+            if payload is None:
+                if key not in self.inactive_keys:
+                    self.inactive_keys.append(key)
+                successful_requests += 1
+                continue
+            if not isinstance(payload, list):
+                self.errors.append(f"{key}: resposta de odds fora do formato esperado")
+                continue
+
+            successful_requests += 1
             if payload:
                 for event in payload:
+                    if not isinstance(event, dict):
+                        continue
                     event["_sport_key"] = key
                     out.append(event)
             await asyncio.sleep(0.10)
 
+        if self.queried_keys and successful_requests == 0 and self.errors:
+            raise ProviderError(
+                "Todas as consultas de odds falharam; o estado anterior foi preservado"
+            )
+
         unique: dict[str, dict[str, Any]] = {}
         for event in out:
             event_id = str(event.get("id") or "")

app/static/app.js

@@ -1,140 +1,462 @@
+"use strict";
+
 const $ = (id) => document.getElementById(id);
-const pct = (v) => v == null ? "—" : (Number(v) * 100).toFixed(1) + "%";
-const num = (v, d=1) => v == null ? "—" : Number(v).toFixed(d);
-const safe = (s) => String(s ?? "").replace(/[<>&"]/g, c => ({"<":"&lt;",">":"&gt;","&":"&amp;",'"':"&quot;"}[c]));
+const REFRESH_INTERVAL = 60_000;
+const REQUEST_TIMEOUT = 15_000;
+
+const ICONS = Object.freeze({
+  alert: `<svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 4 3 20h18L12 4Z"/><path d="M12 10v4m0 3h.01"/></svg>`,
+  copy: `<svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><rect x="8" y="8" width="11" height="11" rx="2"/><path d="M16 8V6a2 2 0 0 0-2-2H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v8a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2"/></svg>`,
+  shield: `<svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 3 4 6v5.7c0 4.7 3.2 8.3 8 9.8 4.8-1.5 8-5.1 8-9.8V6l-8-3Z"/><path d="m8.8 12 2.1 2.1 4.5-4.6"/></svg>`,
+  balance: `<svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 3v18M5 6h14M7 6l-4 8h8L7 6Zm10 0-4 8h8l-4-8ZM7 21h10"/></svg>`,
+  gift: `<svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M4 10h16v10H4zM3 6h18v4H3zM12 6v14M12 6H8.5A2.5 2.5 0 1 1 11 3.5L12 6Zm0 0h3.5A2.5 2.5 0 1 0 13 3.5L12 6Z"/></svg>`
+});
+
+const TICKET_PROFILES = Object.freeze({
+  safe: {
+    title: "SAFE",
+    subtitle: "Exposição controlada",
+    risk: "RISCO MENOR",
+    icon: ICONS.shield
+  },
+  balanced: {
+    title: "BALANCEADO",
+    subtitle: "Risco e retorno ajustados",
+    risk: "RISCO MÉDIO",
+    icon: ICONS.balance
+  },
+  freebet: {
+    title: "FREEBET",
+    subtitle: "Retorno potencial elevado",
+    risk: "RISCO MAIOR",
+    icon: ICONS.gift
+  }
+});
+
+const safe = (value) => String(value ?? "").replace(/[&<>'"]/g, (char) => ({
+  "&": "&amp;",
+  "<": "&lt;",
+  ">": "&gt;",
+  "'": "&#39;",
+  '"': "&quot;"
+})[char]);
+
+const finite = (value) => {
+  if (value === null || value === undefined || value === "") return null;
+  const parsed = Number(value);
+  return Number.isFinite(parsed) ? parsed : null;
+};
+
+const num = (value, digits = 1) => {
+  const parsed = finite(value);
+  return parsed === null ? "—" : parsed.toLocaleString("pt-BR", {
+    minimumFractionDigits: digits,
+    maximumFractionDigits: digits
+  });
+};
+
+const pct = (value) => {
+  const parsed = finite(value);
+  return parsed === null ? "—" : (parsed * 100).toLocaleString("pt-BR", {
+    minimumFractionDigits: 1,
+    maximumFractionDigits: 1
+  }) + "%";
+};
+
+const integer = (value) => {
+  const parsed = finite(value);
+  return parsed === null ? "—" : Math.round(parsed).toLocaleString("pt-BR");
+};
+
+function localDate(value) {
+  if (!value) return "—";
+  const date = new Date(value);
+  if (Number.isNaN(date.getTime())) return String(value);
+  return date.toLocaleString("pt-BR", {
+    day: "2-digit",
+    month: "2-digit",
+    year: "numeric",
+    hour: "2-digit",
+    minute: "2-digit"
+  });
+}
+
+function teamInitials(name) {
+  const words = String(name || "?").trim().split(/\s+/).filter(Boolean);
+  const initials = words.length > 1 ? words[0][0] + words[words.length - 1][0] : words[0]?.slice(0, 2);
+  return String(initials || "?").normalize("NFD").replace(/[\u0300-\u036f]/g, "").toUpperCase();
+}
+
+function boundedScore(value) {
+  const parsed = finite(value);
+  return parsed === null ? 0 : Math.max(0, Math.min(100, parsed));
+}
+
+function setStatus(status) {
+  const pill = $("system-pill");
+  const statuses = {
+    ok: { tone: "ok", pill: "SISTEMA ONLINE", engine: "MOTOR DE PRECISÃO ONLINE", console: "ONLINE", flow: "" },
+    degraded: { tone: "warning", pill: "OPERAÇÃO PARCIAL", engine: "MOTOR ONLINE COM ALERTAS", console: "ATENÇÃO", flow: "paused" },
+    scanning: { tone: "ok", pill: "ANALISANDO", engine: "VARREDURA EM ANDAMENTO", console: "PROCESSANDO", flow: "" },
+    waiting: { tone: "neutral", pill: "AGUARDANDO", engine: "AGUARDANDO PRIMEIRO SCAN", console: "STANDBY", flow: "paused" },
+    interrupted: { tone: "bad", pill: "INTERROMPIDO", engine: "VARREDURA INTERROMPIDA", console: "ATENÇÃO", flow: "failed" },
+    configuration_error: { tone: "bad", pill: "CONFIGURAÇÃO", engine: "CONFIGURAÇÃO NECESSÁRIA", console: "ATENÇÃO", flow: "failed" },
+    error: { tone: "bad", pill: "INDISPONÍVEL", engine: "MOTOR INDISPONÍVEL", console: "ERRO", flow: "failed" }
+  };
+  const current = statuses[status] || {
+    tone: "neutral",
+    pill: String(status || "AGUARDANDO").toUpperCase(),
+    engine: "MOTOR DE PRECISÃO EM ESPERA",
+    console: "STANDBY",
+    flow: "paused"
+  };
+  pill.className = `pill ${current.tone}`;
+  pill.innerHTML = `<span class="status-dot" aria-hidden="true"></span><span>${safe(current.pill)}</span>`;
+
+  const engineLabel = $("engine-label");
+  const engineState = $("engine-state");
+  const engineFlow = $("engine-flow");
+  const stateClass = current.tone === "bad"
+    ? "danger"
+    : current.tone === "neutral" || current.tone === "warning"
+      ? "paused"
+      : "";
+  if (engineLabel) {
+    engineLabel.className = `live-label ${stateClass}`.trim();
+    engineLabel.innerHTML = `<span aria-hidden="true"></span><b>${safe(current.engine)}</b>`;
+  }
+  if (engineState) {
+    engineState.className = `console-state ${stateClass}`.trim();
+    engineState.innerHTML = `<i aria-hidden="true"></i><b>${safe(current.console)}</b>`;
+  }
+  if (engineFlow) engineFlow.className = `engine-flow ${current.flow}`.trim();
+}
 
-function localDate(value){
-  if(!value) return "—";
-  const d = new Date(value);
-  return isNaN(d) ? value : d.toLocaleString("pt-BR");
+function warnings(items) {
+  const values = Array.isArray(items) ? items.filter((item) => item !== null && item !== undefined && item !== "") : [];
+  $("warnings").innerHTML = values.map((item) => `<div class="warning">${ICONS.alert}<span>${safe(item)}</span></div>`).join("");
 }
 
-function warnings(items){
-  $("warnings").innerHTML = (items || []).map(x => `<div class="warning">${safe(x)}</div>`).join("");
+function modelRow(label, value) {
+  return `<div class="model-row"><span>${label}</span><b>${value}</b></div>`;
 }
 
-function pickCard(p, idx){
-  const reasons = (p.reasons || []).map(r => `<span class="tag">${safe(r)}</span>`).join("");
-  return `<article class="pick panel">
-    <div class="pick-top">
-      <div>
-        <div class="rank">#${String(idx+1).padStart(2,"0")} • ${safe(p.label)}</div>
-        <div class="match">${safe(p.home)} <span class="muted">x</span> ${safe(p.away)}</div>
-        <div class="competition">${safe(p.competition)} • ${localDate(p.kickoff)}</div>
+function pickCard(pick, index) {
+  const p = pick && typeof pick === "object" ? pick : {};
+  const detail = p.model_detail && typeof p.model_detail === "object" ? p.model_detail : {};
+  const score = boundedScore(p.safe_score);
+  const reasons = Array.isArray(p.reasons)
+    ? p.reasons.map((reason) => `<span class="tag">${safe(reason)}</span>`).join("")
+    : "";
+  const oddInputId = `market-odd-${index}`;
+  const selection = p.selection ? `${p.selection} vence` : "Seleção indisponível";
+  const probability = finite(p.probability);
+  const modelRows = [
+    modelRow("Dixon-Coles / Poisson", pct(detail.poisson)),
+    modelRow("Elo", pct(detail.elo)),
+    modelRow("Forma ponderada", pct(detail.form)),
+    modelRow("Modelo interno", pct(p.raw_model_probability)),
+    modelRow("Mercado sem margem", pct(p.market_probability)),
+    modelRow("Peso do modelo interno", pct(detail.internal_weight)),
+    modelRow("Pesos Poisson / Elo / Forma", `${pct(detail.weight_poisson)} / ${pct(detail.weight_elo)} / ${pct(detail.weight_form)}`),
+    modelRow("Amostra walk-forward / holdout", `${integer(detail.tuning_total_samples)} / ${integer(detail.tuning_samples)}`),
+    modelRow("Brier Skill vs. climatologia", detail.tuning_brier_skill == null ? "—" : pct(detail.tuning_brier_skill)),
+    modelRow("Validação do modelo", detail.model_validation == null ? "—" : pct(detail.model_validation)),
+    modelRow("Piso Poisson / Elo", detail.core_model_floor == null ? "—" : pct(detail.core_model_floor)),
+    modelRow("Ganho Brier tuning", detail.tuning_gain == null ? "—" : num(detail.tuning_gain, 4)),
+    modelRow("Qualidade dos dados", pct(p.quality)),
+    modelRow("Confiabilidade composta", pct(p.reliability)),
+    modelRow("Casas no consenso", integer(p.market_bookmakers)),
+    modelRow("Dispersão do mercado", pct(p.market_dispersion)),
+    modelRow("Confiança no nome do time", pct(p.name_confidence)),
+    modelRow("Calibração forward", p.calibration_delta == null ? "—" : `${num(Number(p.calibration_delta) * 100, 1)} pp`),
+    modelRow("Edge vs. mercado", pct(p.edge))
+  ].join("");
+
+  return `<article class="pick panel" aria-label="${safe(p.home)} contra ${safe(p.away)}">
+    <div class="pick-head">
+      <div class="pick-meta">
+        <span class="rank">#${String(index + 1).padStart(2, "0")} · ${safe(p.label || "SAFE")}</span>
+        <span class="competition-chip">${safe(p.competition || "Competição")}</span>
+        <span class="kickoff">Início · ${safe(localDate(p.kickoff))}</span>
+      </div>
+      <div class="score-ring" role="img" aria-label="Score de confiança ${num(score, 1)} de 100">
+        <svg viewBox="0 0 44 44" aria-hidden="true"><circle class="score-track" cx="22" cy="22" r="19" pathLength="100"/><circle class="score-value" cx="22" cy="22" r="19" pathLength="100" stroke-dasharray="${score} 100"/></svg>
+        <span><strong>${num(p.safe_score, 1)}</strong><small>SCORE</small></span>
       </div>
-      <div class="pill ok">${num(p.safe_score,1)}</div>
-    </div>
-    <div class="selection">${safe(p.selection)} vence</div>
-    <div class="metrics">
-      <div class="metric"><span>PROB.</span><strong>${pct(p.probability)}</strong></div>
-      <div class="metric"><span>CONSERV.</span><strong>${pct(p.conservative_probability)}</strong></div>
-      <div class="metric"><span>ODD MED.</span><strong>${num(p.odd,2)}</strong></div>
-      <div class="metric"><span>ODD JUSTA</span><strong>${num(p.fair_odd,2)}</strong></div>
     </div>
-    <div class="bar"><div style="width:${Math.max(0,Math.min(100,p.safe_score))}%"></div></div>
-    <div class="reasons">${reasons}</div>
-    <details class="models-detail">
-      <summary>Ver modelos e qualidade</summary>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Dixon-Coles/Poisson</span><b>${pct(p.model_detail?.poisson)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Elo</span><b>${pct(p.model_detail?.elo)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Forma ponderada</span><b>${pct(p.model_detail?.form)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Modelo interno</span><b>${pct(p.raw_model_probability)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Mercado de-vigado</span><b>${pct(p.market_probability)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Peso do modelo interno</span><b>${pct(p.model_detail?.internal_weight)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Pesos P/E/F</span><b>${pct(p.model_detail?.weight_poisson)} / ${pct(p.model_detail?.weight_elo)} / ${pct(p.model_detail?.weight_form)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Amostra walk-forward</span><b>${num(p.model_detail?.tuning_samples,0)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Brier Skill vs climatologia</span><b>${p.model_detail?.tuning_brier_skill == null ? "—" : pct(p.model_detail.tuning_brier_skill)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Validação do modelo</span><b>${p.model_detail?.model_validation == null ? "—" : pct(p.model_detail.model_validation)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Piso Poisson/Elo</span><b>${p.model_detail?.core_model_floor == null ? "—" : pct(p.model_detail.core_model_floor)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Ganho Brier tuning</span><b>${p.model_detail?.tuning_gain == null ? "—" : Number(p.model_detail.tuning_gain).toFixed(4)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Qualidade dos dados</span><b>${pct(p.quality)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Confiabilidade composta</span><b>${pct(p.reliability)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Casas no consenso</span><b>${p.market_bookmakers ?? "—"}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Dispersão do mercado</span><b>${pct(p.market_dispersion)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Confiança no nome do time</span><b>${pct(p.name_confidence)}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Calibração forward</span><b>${p.calibration_delta == null ? "—" : ((Number(p.calibration_delta)*100).toFixed(1)+" pp")}</b></div>
-      <div class="model-row"><span>Edge vs. mercado</span><b>${pct(p.edge)}</b></div>
-    </details>
-    <div class="copyline">
-      <button class="copybtn" data-copy="${safe(p.selection)}" onclick="copyText(this)">Copiar time</button>
-      <button class="copybtn" data-copy="${safe(p.home)} x ${safe(p.away)}" onclick="copyText(this)">Copiar jogo</button>
+    <div class="pick-body">
+      <div class="matchup">
+        <div class="team"><span class="team-badge" aria-hidden="true">${safe(teamInitials(p.home))}</span><strong>${safe(p.home || "Mandante")}</strong></div>
+        <span class="versus">VS</span>
+        <div class="team"><span class="team-badge" aria-hidden="true">${safe(teamInitials(p.away))}</span><strong>${safe(p.away || "Visitante")}</strong></div>
+      </div>
+
+      <div class="selection-box">
+        <div><span>SELEÇÃO DO MODELO</span><strong>${safe(selection)}</strong></div>
+        <span class="selection-signal"><i aria-hidden="true"></i> APROVADA</span>
+      </div>
+
+      <div class="metrics" aria-label="Métricas da seleção">
+        <div class="metric"><span>PROBABILIDADE</span><strong>${pct(p.probability)}</strong></div>
+        <div class="metric"><span>CONSERVADORA</span><strong>${pct(p.conservative_probability)}</strong></div>
+        <div class="metric"><span>ODD MERCADO</span><strong>${num(p.odd, 2)}</strong></div>
+        <div class="metric"><span>ODD JUSTA</span><strong>${num(p.fair_odd, 2)}</strong></div>
+      </div>
+
+      <div class="confidence-line">
+        <span>FORÇA DO SINAL</span>
+        <progress class="bar" aria-label="Força do sinal" value="${score}" max="100">${num(score, 1)}%</progress>
+        <span>${num(score, 1)}/100</span>
+      </div>
+      ${reasons ? `<div class="reasons">${reasons}</div>` : ""}
+
+      <details class="models-detail">
+        <summary>Auditoria de modelos e qualidade</summary>
+        <div class="model-table">${modelRows}</div>
+      </details>
+
+      <div class="pick-tools">
+        <div class="copyline">
+          <button class="copybtn" type="button" data-copy="${safe(p.selection)}" aria-label="Copiar seleção ${safe(p.selection)}">${ICONS.copy} Copiar seleção</button>
+          <button class="copybtn" type="button" data-copy="${safe(p.home)} x ${safe(p.away)}" aria-label="Copiar nome do jogo">${ICONS.copy} Copiar jogo</button>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      <div class="oddbox">
+        <div class="odd-input-row">
+          <label for="${oddInputId}">COMPARE A ODD ENCONTRADA NA SUA CASA</label>
+          <div class="odd-input-wrap"><input id="${oddInputId}" class="market-odd-input" type="number" inputmode="decimal" min="1.01" step="0.01" placeholder="1,31" data-probability="${probability ?? ""}"></div>
+        </div>
+        <span class="oddresult" aria-live="polite">Digite uma odd para estimar o valor esperado.</span>
+      </div>
     </div>
-    <div class="oddbox">
-      <strong>Odd Betano:</strong>
-      <input type="number" min="1.01" step="0.01" placeholder="ex. 1.31" oninput="evalOdd(this, ${Number(p.probability)})">
-      <span class="oddresult">Digite sua odd para comparar.</span>
+  </article>`;
+}
+
+function emptyTicket(profileName) {
+  const profile = TICKET_PROFILES[profileName];
+  return `<article class="ticket panel" data-profile="${profileName}">
+    <div class="ticket-head">
+      <div class="ticket-profile"><span class="ticket-icon">${profile.icon}</span><div><h3>${profile.title}</h3><span>${profile.subtitle}</span></div></div>
+      <span class="risk-chip">${profile.risk}</span>
     </div>
+    <div class="empty"><div class="empty-content"><span class="empty-icon">—</span><strong>Bilhete ainda indisponível</strong><small>São necessárias mais seleções aprovadas para montar este perfil.</small></div></div>
   </article>`;
 }
 
-window.evalOdd = function(input, p){
-  const out = input.parentElement.querySelector(".oddresult");
-  const odd = Number(input.value);
-  if(!odd || odd <= 1){ out.textContent = "Digite uma odd válida."; return; }
-  const ev = p * odd - 1;
-  const fair = 1/p;
-  if(ev >= .03) out.innerHTML = `🟢 EV estimado <b>+${(ev*100).toFixed(1)}%</b> • justa ${fair.toFixed(2)}`;
-  else if(ev >= -.02) out.innerHTML = `🟡 preço próximo do justo • EV ${(ev*100).toFixed(1)}%`;
-  else out.innerHTML = `🔴 preço fraco • EV ${(ev*100).toFixed(1)}% • justa ${fair.toFixed(2)}`;
-}
-
-function ticketCard(name, t){
-  const labels = {safe:"🛡️ SAFE",balanced:"⚖️ BALANCEADO",freebet:"🎁 FREEBET"};
-  if(!t) return `<article class="ticket panel"><h3>${labels[name]}</h3><div class="empty">Não há seleções suficientes.</div></article>`;
-  const legs = t.legs.map(l => `<div class="ticket-leg"><b>${safe(l.selection)} vence @ ${num(l.odd,2)}</b><span>${safe(l.match)} • score ${num(l.safe_score,1)}</span></div>`).join("");
-  return `<article class="ticket panel">
-    <h3>${labels[name]}</h3>
-    <div class="muted">alvo ${num(t.target_odd,1)}</div>
-    <div class="big">@ ${num(t.total_odd,2)}</div>
-    <div class="muted">${t.target_met ? "✅ alvo atingido" : "⚠️ abaixo do alvo"} • Prob. estimada: ${pct(t.joint_probability)} • stress: ${pct(t.joint_conservative)} • EV ${pct(t.estimated_ev)}</div>
-    <div style="margin-top:14px">${legs}</div>
+function ticketCard(profileName, ticket) {
+  const profile = TICKET_PROFILES[profileName];
+  if (!ticket || typeof ticket !== "object") return emptyTicket(profileName);
+
+  const legs = Array.isArray(ticket.legs) ? ticket.legs : [];
+  const legMarkup = legs.map((leg) => `<div class="ticket-leg">
+    <b>${safe(leg?.selection)} vence <span aria-label="com odd">@</span> ${num(leg?.odd, 2)}</b>
+    <span title="${safe(leg?.match)}">${safe(leg?.match)} · score ${num(leg?.safe_score, 1)}</span>
+  </div>`).join("");
+  const targetMet = ticket.target_met === true;
+
+  return `<article class="ticket panel" data-profile="${profileName}">
+    <div class="ticket-head">
+      <div class="ticket-profile"><span class="ticket-icon">${profile.icon}</span><div><h3>${profile.title}</h3><span>${profile.subtitle}</span></div></div>
+      <span class="risk-chip">${profile.risk}</span>
+    </div>
+    <div class="ticket-odd"><span>ODD COMBINADA</span><strong>@ ${num(ticket.total_odd, 2)}</strong></div>
+    <div class="ticket-summary">
+      <div><span>PROB. EST.</span><strong>${pct(ticket.joint_probability)}</strong></div>
+      <div><span>STRESS</span><strong>${pct(ticket.joint_conservative)}</strong></div>
+      <div><span>EV EST.</span><strong>${pct(ticket.estimated_ev)}</strong></div>
+    </div>
+    <div class="target-state ${targetMet ? "met" : ""}"><i aria-hidden="true"></i>${targetMet ? "Meta atingida" : "Abaixo da meta"} · alvo @ ${num(ticket.target_odd, 1)}</div>
+    <div class="ticket-legs">${legMarkup || `<div class="empty">Nenhuma perna disponível.</div>`}</div>
   </article>`;
 }
 
-async function load(){
-  try{
-    const r = await fetch("/api/state", {cache:"no-store"});
-    const s = await r.json();
-    $("system-pill").className = "pill " + (s.status === "ok" ? "ok" : s.status === "error" ? "bad" : "neutral");
-    $("system-pill").textContent = String(s.status || "WAITING").toUpperCase();
-    $("s-events").textContent = s.summary?.events ?? "—";
-    $("s-approved").textContent = s.summary?.approved ?? 0;
-    $("s-best").textContent = s.picks?.length ? num(Math.max(...s.picks.map(x=>x.safe_score)),1) : "—";
-    $("s-winrate").textContent = s.performance?.win_rate == null ? "—" : pct(s.performance.win_rate);
-    $("last-update").textContent = "Atualizado: " + localDate(s.generated_at);
-    warnings(s.warnings);
-    $("picks").innerHTML = s.picks?.length ? s.picks.map(pickCard).join("") : `<div class="panel empty">Nenhum palpite aprovado. Isso é permitido: o bot não força seleções.</div>`;
-    $("tickets").innerHTML = ["safe","balanced","freebet"].map(k => ticketCard(k, s.tickets?.[k])).join("");
-
-    const q = s.providers?.odds_api?.quota || {};
-    $("health").innerHTML = `
-      <div class="health-card"><span>FOOTBALL DATA</span><strong>${s.providers?.football_data?.ok ? "🟢 ONLINE" : "⚪ AGUARDANDO"}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>ODDS API</span><strong>${s.providers?.odds_api?.ok ? "🟢 ONLINE" : "⚪ AGUARDANDO"}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>CRÉDITOS ODDS RESTANTES</span><strong>${q.remaining ?? "—"}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>HISTÓRICO</span><strong>${s.summary?.historical_matches ?? "—"} jogos</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>PALPITES LIQUIDADOS</span><strong>${s.performance?.settled ?? 0}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>ROI FORWARD</span><strong>${s.performance?.roi == null ? "—" : pct(s.performance.roi)}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>BRIER SCORE</span><strong>${s.performance?.brier_score ?? "—"}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>CALIBRAÇÃO ECE</span><strong>${s.performance?.ece == null ? "—" : pct(s.performance.ece)}</strong></div>
-      <div class="health-card"><span>MODELO</span><strong>${safe(s.model_version || "—")}</strong></div>`;
-  }catch(e){
-    $("system-pill").className="pill bad"; $("system-pill").textContent="ERRO";
-    warnings(["Falha ao carregar o painel: " + e.message]);
+function healthCard(label, value, note = "") {
+  return `<div class="health-card"><span>${label}</span><strong>${value}</strong>${note ? `<small>${note}</small>` : ""}</div>`;
+}
+
+function providerValue(isOnline, isDegraded) {
+  const tone = isOnline ? "online" : isDegraded ? "partial" : "";
+  const label = isOnline ? "ONLINE" : isDegraded ? "PARCIAL" : "AGUARDANDO";
+  return `<span class="provider-status ${tone}"><i aria-hidden="true"></i>${label}</span>`;
+}
+
+function renderHealth(state) {
+  const quota = state.providers?.odds_api?.quota || {};
+  const degraded = state.status === "degraded";
+  const cards = [
+    healthCard("FOOTBALL DATA", providerValue(Boolean(state.providers?.football_data?.ok), degraded), "dados de jogos"),
+    healthCard("ODDS API", providerValue(Boolean(state.providers?.odds_api?.ok), degraded), "consenso de mercado"),
+    healthCard("CRÉDITOS ODDS", safe(integer(quota.remaining)), "consultas restantes"),
+    healthCard("BASE HISTÓRICA", `${safe(integer(state.summary?.historical_matches))} jogos`, "amostra disponível"),
+    healthCard("PALPITES LIQUIDADOS", safe(integer(state.performance?.settled)), "forward tracking"),
+    healthCard("ROI FORWARD", safe(pct(state.performance?.roi)), "retorno observado"),
+    healthCard("BRIER SCORE", safe(num(state.performance?.brier_score, 3)), "erro probabilístico"),
+    healthCard("CALIBRAÇÃO ECE", safe(pct(state.performance?.ece)), "desvio de calibração"),
+    healthCard("VERSÃO DO MODELO", safe(state.model_version || "—"), "motor em execução")
+  ];
+  $("health").innerHTML = cards.join("");
+  $("health").setAttribute("aria-busy", "false");
+}
+
+function renderState(payload) {
+  const state = payload && typeof payload === "object" ? payload : {};
+  const picks = Array.isArray(state.picks) ? state.picks : [];
+
+  setStatus(state.status || "waiting");
+  $("s-events").textContent = integer(state.summary?.events);
+  $("s-approved").textContent = integer(state.summary?.approved ?? picks.length);
+  $("s-best").textContent = picks.length ? num(Math.max(...picks.map((item) => boundedScore(item?.safe_score))), 1) : "—";
+  $("s-winrate").textContent = state.performance?.win_rate == null ? "—" : pct(state.performance.win_rate);
+  $("last-update").textContent = `Atualizado · ${localDate(state.generated_at)}`;
+  warnings(state.warnings);
+
+  $("picks").innerHTML = picks.length
+    ? picks.map(pickCard).join("")
+    : `<div class="panel empty"><div class="empty-content"><span class="empty-icon">✓</span><strong>Nenhuma seleção foi liberada</strong><small>O Risk Gate não força palpites. O painel será atualizado quando houver uma oportunidade dentro do padrão SAFE.</small></div></div>`;
+  $("picks").setAttribute("aria-busy", "false");
+
+  const tickets = state.tickets && typeof state.tickets === "object" ? state.tickets : {};
+  $("tickets").innerHTML = ["safe", "balanced", "freebet"].map((key) => ticketCard(key, tickets[key])).join("");
+  $("tickets").setAttribute("aria-busy", "false");
+  renderHealth(state);
+}
+
+function setRegionsBusy(isBusy) {
+  ["picks", "tickets", "health"].forEach((id) => $(id)?.setAttribute("aria-busy", String(isBusy)));
+}
+
+let activeController = null;
+let toastTimer = null;
+
+function showToast(message) {
+  const toast = $("toast");
+  if (!toast) return;
+  toast.textContent = message;
+  toast.classList.add("show");
+  clearTimeout(toastTimer);
+  toastTimer = setTimeout(() => toast.classList.remove("show"), 2300);
+}
+
+async function load({ force = false, announce = false } = {}) {
+  if (activeController && !force) return;
+  if (activeController) activeController.abort();
+
+  const controller = new AbortController();
+  activeController = controller;
+  const refreshButton = $("refresh-ui");
+  setRegionsBusy(true);
+  refreshButton.classList.add("loading");
+  refreshButton.disabled = true;
+  refreshButton.setAttribute("aria-label", "Atualizando painel");
+
+  const timeout = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), REQUEST_TIMEOUT);
+  try {
+    const response = await fetch("/api/state", {
+      cache: "no-store",
+      headers: { Accept: "application/json" },
+      signal: controller.signal
+    });
+    if (!response.ok) throw new Error(`servidor respondeu ${response.status}`);
+    const state = await response.json();
+    renderState(state);
+    if (announce) showToast("Painel atualizado com sucesso.");
+  } catch (error) {
+    if (error.name === "AbortError" && activeController !== controller) return;
+    setStatus("error");
+    const message = error.name === "AbortError"
+      ? "A atualização demorou mais que o esperado. Tente novamente."
+      : `Falha ao carregar o painel: ${error.message}`;
+    warnings([message]);
+    setRegionsBusy(false);
+    if (announce) showToast("Não foi possível atualizar o painel.");
+  } finally {
+    clearTimeout(timeout);
+    if (activeController === controller) {
+      activeController = null;
+      refreshButton.classList.remove("loading");
+      refreshButton.disabled = false;
+      refreshButton.setAttribute("aria-label", "Atualizar painel");
+    }
   }
 }
-$("refresh-ui").addEventListener("click", load);
-load();
-setInterval(load, 60000);
 
+window.evalOdd = function evalOdd(input, probability) {
+  if (!input) return;
+  const result = input.closest(".oddbox")?.querySelector(".oddresult");
+  if (!result) return;
+  const odd = finite(input.value);
+  const p = finite(probability);
+  result.className = "oddresult";
 
-window.copyText = async function(button){
-  const text = button.dataset.copy || "";
-  try{
+  if (odd === null || odd <= 1) {
+    result.textContent = input.value ? "Digite uma odd válida, acima de 1,00." : "Digite uma odd para estimar o valor esperado.";
+    return;
+  }
+  if (p === null || p <= 0) {
+    result.textContent = "Probabilidade indisponível para esta comparação.";
+    return;
+  }
+
+  const expectedValue = p * odd - 1;
+  const fairOdd = 1 / p;
+  if (expectedValue >= .03) {
+    result.classList.add("good");
+    result.textContent = `Valor positivo · EV +${num(expectedValue * 100, 1)}% · odd justa ${num(fairOdd, 2)}`;
+  } else if (expectedValue >= -.02) {
+    result.classList.add("fair");
+    result.textContent = `Preço próximo do justo · EV ${num(expectedValue * 100, 1)}% · justa ${num(fairOdd, 2)}`;
+  } else {
+    result.classList.add("weak");
+    result.textContent = `Preço abaixo do modelo · EV ${num(expectedValue * 100, 1)}% · justa ${num(fairOdd, 2)}`;
+  }
+};
+
+async function writeClipboard(text) {
+  if (navigator.clipboard && window.isSecureContext) {
     await navigator.clipboard.writeText(text);
-    const old = button.textContent;
-    button.textContent = "Copiado ✓";
-    setTimeout(()=>button.textContent=old, 1200);
-  }catch(e){
-    button.textContent = text;
+    return;
   }
+  const field = document.createElement("textarea");
+  field.value = text;
+  field.setAttribute("readonly", "");
+  field.className = "clipboard-fallback";
+  document.body.appendChild(field);
+  field.select();
+  const copied = document.execCommand("copy");
+  field.remove();
+  if (!copied) throw new Error("cópia indisponível");
 }
+
+window.copyText = async function copyText(button) {
+  if (!button) return;
+  const text = button.dataset.copy || "";
+  if (!text) return;
+  try {
+    await writeClipboard(text);
+    showToast("Copiado para a área de transferência.");
+  } catch (_error) {
+    showToast("Não foi possível copiar automaticamente.");
+  }
+};
+
+document.addEventListener("click", (event) => {
+  const copyButton = event.target.closest(".copybtn");
+  if (copyButton) window.copyText(copyButton);
+
+  const scrollButton = event.target.closest("[data-scroll-target]");
+  if (scrollButton) $(scrollButton.dataset.scrollTarget)?.scrollIntoView({ behavior: "smooth", block: "start" });
+});
+
+document.addEventListener("input", (event) => {
+  const input = event.target.closest(".market-odd-input");
+  if (input) window.evalOdd(input, input.dataset.probability);
+});
+
+$("refresh-ui").addEventListener("click", () => load({ force: true, announce: true }));
+
+load();
+setInterval(() => {
+  if (!document.hidden) load();
+}, REFRESH_INTERVAL);

app/static/style.css

@@ -1,49 +1,2251 @@
-:root{
-  --bg:#07111f;--panel:#0d1a2b;--panel2:#102238;--line:#1b3350;
-  --text:#edf6ff;--muted:#8ea5bd;--green:#3ee39a;--yellow:#ffc857;
-  --red:#ff6b7a;--cyan:#57d8ff;--shadow:0 18px 60px rgba(0,0,0,.28)
-}
-*{box-sizing:border-box}
-html{background:var(--bg);color-scheme:dark}
-body{margin:0;background:
- radial-gradient(circle at 12% 0%,rgba(62,227,154,.10),transparent 28rem),
- radial-gradient(circle at 88% 12%,rgba(87,216,255,.08),transparent 24rem),
- var(--bg);color:var(--text);font-family:Inter,ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",sans-serif;min-height:100vh}
-.noise{position:fixed;inset:0;pointer-events:none;opacity:.02;background-image:url("data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg viewBox='0 0 180 180' xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%3E%3Cfilter id='n'%3E%3CfeTurbulence type='fractalNoise' baseFrequency='.9' numOctaves='4' stitchTiles='stitch'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Crect width='100%25' height='100%25' filter='url(%23n)' opacity='.5'/%3E%3C/svg%3E")}
-.topbar{max-width:1180px;margin:auto;padding:24px 20px 8px;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:center;gap:16px}
-.brand{font-weight:900;letter-spacing:.08em}.shield{color:var(--green);margin-right:8px}.subtitle{font-size:12px;color:var(--muted);margin-top:4px}
-.container{max-width:1180px;margin:auto;padding:18px 20px 70px}
-.panel{background:linear-gradient(180deg,rgba(16,34,56,.92),rgba(10,24,41,.92));border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:20px;box-shadow:var(--shadow)}
-.hero{padding:28px;display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:flex-end;gap:24px}
-.hero h1{font-size:clamp(28px,5vw,52px);line-height:1;margin:8px 0 12px;letter-spacing:-.045em}
-.hero p{max-width:720px;color:var(--muted);line-height:1.6;margin:0}
-.eyebrow{font-size:11px;font-weight:900;letter-spacing:.16em;color:var(--green)}
-.btn{border:1px solid #2f765c;background:#123d31;color:#dffff1;padding:12px 16px;border-radius:12px;font-weight:800;cursor:pointer;white-space:nowrap}
-.btn:hover{filter:brightness(1.15)}
-.pill{border-radius:999px;padding:8px 12px;font-size:11px;font-weight:900;letter-spacing:.08em;border:1px solid var(--line)}
-.pill.ok{color:var(--green);border-color:#23684f;background:#0c2a22}.pill.bad{color:var(--red);border-color:#63303a;background:#2d151a}.pill.neutral{color:var(--muted)}
-.stats-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(4,1fr);gap:14px;margin:18px 0 36px}
-.stat{padding:18px}.stat span,.stat small{display:block;color:var(--muted);font-size:11px;font-weight:800;letter-spacing:.08em}.stat strong{display:block;font-size:32px;margin:6px 0}
-.section-head{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;align-items:flex-end;margin:36px 2px 14px;gap:16px}.section-head h2{margin:5px 0 0;font-size:24px}.muted{color:var(--muted);font-size:12px}
-.picks{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(2,1fr);gap:14px}
-.pick{padding:20px;position:relative;overflow:hidden}.pick:before{content:"";position:absolute;left:0;top:0;bottom:0;width:3px;background:var(--green)}
-.pick-top{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;gap:12px;align-items:flex-start}.rank{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted);font-weight:900;letter-spacing:.12em}.match{font-size:19px;font-weight:850;margin:5px 0 4px}.competition{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted)}
-.selection{margin:18px 0 12px;font-size:15px;font-weight:850;color:#dfffee}
-.metrics{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(4,1fr);gap:8px}.metric{background:#091725;border:1px solid #172d47;border-radius:12px;padding:10px}.metric span{display:block;color:var(--muted);font-size:9px;font-weight:800;letter-spacing:.06em}.metric strong{display:block;margin-top:5px;font-size:15px}
-.bar{height:7px;background:#07111f;border-radius:999px;overflow:hidden;margin:14px 0}.bar>div{height:100%;background:linear-gradient(90deg,var(--cyan),var(--green));border-radius:999px}
-.reasons{display:flex;flex-wrap:wrap;gap:7px}.tag{font-size:10px;color:#a8c6dd;background:#0a1b2b;border:1px solid #1a3650;padding:6px 8px;border-radius:999px}
-.oddbox{margin-top:14px;padding-top:14px;border-top:1px solid #19324c;display:flex;align-items:center;gap:8px;flex-wrap:wrap}.oddbox input{width:112px;background:#071522;border:1px solid #25415b;border-radius:9px;padding:9px;color:white}.oddresult{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted)}
-.ticket-grid{display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(3,1fr);gap:14px}.ticket{padding:20px}.ticket h3{margin:0 0 3px}.ticket .big{font-size:30px;font-weight:900;margin:10px 0}.ticket-leg{padding:10px 0;border-top:1px solid #19324c}.ticket-leg:first-of-type{border-top:0}.ticket-leg b{display:block;font-size:13px}.ticket-leg span{font-size:11px;color:var(--muted)}
-.warning{border:1px solid #614d24;background:#2b2412;color:#ffe0a0;padding:12px 14px;border-radius:12px;margin:10px 0;font-size:13px}
-.empty{padding:26px;text-align:center;color:var(--muted)}
-.health{padding:20px;display:grid;grid-template-columns:repeat(3,1fr);gap:12px}.health-card{background:#091725;border:1px solid #172d47;border-radius:14px;padding:14px}.health-card span{display:block;color:var(--muted);font-size:10px}.health-card strong{display:block;margin-top:6px}
-footer{text-align:center;color:#6f879e;font-size:11px;margin-top:40px;line-height:1.6}
-@media(max-width:800px){.stats-grid{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,1fr)}.picks,.ticket-grid{grid-template-columns:1fr}.metrics{grid-template-columns:repeat(2,1fr)}.health{grid-template-columns:1fr 1fr}.hero{align-items:flex-start;flex-direction:column}.topbar{padding-top:16px}}
-@media(max-width:480px){.container,.topbar{padding-left:12px;padding-right:12px}.hero{padding:20px}.health{grid-template-columns:1fr}.stat strong{font-size:28px}}
-
-.models-detail{margin-top:13px;border-top:1px solid #19324c;padding-top:12px}
-.models-detail summary{cursor:pointer;color:#bcd2e6;font-size:11px;font-weight:800}
-.model-row{display:flex;justify-content:space-between;gap:12px;padding:7px 0;border-bottom:1px dashed #173049;font-size:11px;color:var(--muted)}
-.model-row b{color:var(--text)}
-.copyline{display:flex;gap:8px;margin-top:12px}
-.copybtn{background:#0a1b2b;border:1px solid #24415d;color:#bcd2e6;border-radius:9px;padding:7px 9px;font-size:10px;font-weight:800;cursor:pointer}
+:root {
+  --bg: #060b09;
+  --bg-soft: #0a110e;
+  --surface: #0d1713;
+  --surface-2: #111e19;
+  --surface-3: #14241d;
+  --line: rgba(179, 211, 196, .12);
+  --line-strong: rgba(179, 211, 196, .2);
+  --text: #f2f8f5;
+  --muted: #91a69b;
+  --muted-strong: #b6c7be;
+  --green: #38e991;
+  --green-bright: #75ffb4;
+  --green-dark: #123b2a;
+  --blue: #54b8ff;
+  --violet: #a98aff;
+  --amber: #ffca64;
+  --red: #ff7184;
+  --shadow: 0 24px 70px rgba(0, 0, 0, .35);
+  --radius-lg: 22px;
+  --radius-md: 16px;
+  --radius-sm: 11px;
+  --header-height: 76px;
+}
+
+* {
+  box-sizing: border-box;
+}
+
+html {
+  background: var(--bg);
+  color-scheme: dark;
+  scroll-behavior: smooth;
+  scroll-padding-top: calc(var(--header-height) + 24px);
+}
+
+body {
+  min-height: 100vh;
+  margin: 0;
+  overflow-x: hidden;
+  background:
+    radial-gradient(circle at 8% 3%, rgba(56, 233, 145, .08), transparent 25rem),
+    radial-gradient(circle at 94% 30%, rgba(84, 184, 255, .055), transparent 28rem),
+    linear-gradient(180deg, #07100d 0, var(--bg) 32rem);
+  color: var(--text);
+  font-family: Inter, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", sans-serif;
+  -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased;
+  text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;
+}
+
+body::selection {
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .3);
+  color: #fff;
+}
+
+a {
+  color: inherit;
+  text-decoration: none;
+}
+
+button,
+input {
+  font: inherit;
+}
+
+button {
+  color: inherit;
+}
+
+svg {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.skip-link {
+  position: fixed;
+  z-index: 1000;
+  top: 10px;
+  left: 10px;
+  padding: 10px 14px;
+  transform: translateY(-150%);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: var(--green);
+  color: #032014;
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  transition: transform .2s ease;
+}
+
+.skip-link:focus {
+  transform: translateY(0);
+}
+
+:focus-visible {
+  outline: 2px solid var(--green-bright);
+  outline-offset: 3px;
+}
+
+.ambient {
+  position: fixed;
+  z-index: -2;
+  width: 30rem;
+  height: 30rem;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  pointer-events: none;
+  filter: blur(110px);
+  opacity: .06;
+}
+
+.ambient-one {
+  top: 18rem;
+  left: -16rem;
+  background: var(--green);
+}
+
+.ambient-two {
+  right: -18rem;
+  bottom: 4rem;
+  background: var(--blue);
+}
+
+.noise {
+  position: fixed;
+  z-index: -1;
+  inset: 0;
+  pointer-events: none;
+  opacity: .018;
+  background-image: url("data:image/svg+xml,%3Csvg viewBox='0 0 180 180' xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%3E%3Cfilter id='n'%3E%3CfeTurbulence type='fractalNoise' baseFrequency='.95' numOctaves='3' stitchTiles='stitchTiles'/%3E%3C/filter%3E%3Crect width='100%25' height='100%25' filter='url(%23n)'/%3E%3C/svg%3E");
+}
+
+.topbar {
+  position: sticky;
+  z-index: 100;
+  top: 0;
+  min-height: var(--header-height);
+  border-bottom: 1px solid rgba(185, 219, 202, .08);
+  background: rgba(6, 12, 9, .82);
+  backdrop-filter: blur(20px) saturate(140%);
+}
+
+.topbar-inner {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  width: min(100% - 40px, 1240px);
+  min-height: var(--header-height);
+  margin: auto;
+  gap: 28px;
+}
+
+.brand {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 11px;
+}
+
+.brand-mark {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 37px;
+  height: 41px;
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--green);
+  filter: drop-shadow(0 0 16px rgba(56, 233, 145, .22));
+}
+
+.brand-mark svg {
+  width: 30px;
+  height: 34px;
+}
+
+.brand-copy {
+  display: flex;
+  flex-direction: column;
+  gap: 2px;
+}
+
+.brand-copy strong {
+  font-size: 15px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .055em;
+  line-height: 1;
+}
+
+.brand-copy em {
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-style: normal;
+}
+
+.brand-copy small {
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 700;
+  letter-spacing: .14em;
+  text-transform: uppercase;
+}
+
+.main-nav {
+  display: flex;
+  align-self: stretch;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 8px;
+}
+
+.main-nav a {
+  position: relative;
+  display: grid;
+  height: 100%;
+  padding: 0 13px;
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 12px;
+  font-weight: 700;
+  transition: color .2s ease;
+}
+
+.main-nav a::after {
+  position: absolute;
+  right: 13px;
+  bottom: -1px;
+  left: 13px;
+  height: 2px;
+  transform: scaleX(0);
+  border-radius: 2px;
+  background: var(--green);
+  content: "";
+  transition: transform .2s ease;
+}
+
+.main-nav a:hover,
+.main-nav a:focus-visible {
+  color: var(--text);
+}
+
+.main-nav a:hover::after {
+  transform: scaleX(1);
+}
+
+.topbar-actions {
+  display: flex;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 9px;
+}
+
+.pill {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  min-height: 33px;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 8px;
+  padding: 7px 11px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 999px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .025);
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .1em;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.status-dot {
+  width: 7px;
+  height: 7px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: currentColor;
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 4px currentColor;
+  opacity: .7;
+}
+
+.pill.ok {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .25);
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .075);
+  color: var(--green);
+}
+
+.pill.ok .status-dot {
+  animation: status-pulse 2s ease-out infinite;
+}
+
+.pill.bad {
+  border-color: rgba(255, 113, 132, .28);
+  background: rgba(255, 113, 132, .08);
+  color: var(--red);
+}
+
+.pill.warning {
+  border-color: rgba(255, 202, 100, .28);
+  background: rgba(255, 202, 100, .08);
+  color: var(--amber);
+}
+
+.clipboard-fallback {
+  position: fixed;
+  width: 1px;
+  height: 1px;
+  opacity: 0;
+  pointer-events: none;
+}
+
+.icon-button {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 36px;
+  height: 36px;
+  padding: 0;
+  cursor: pointer;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 10px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .035);
+  place-items: center;
+  transition: border-color .2s ease, background .2s ease, transform .2s ease;
+}
+
+.icon-button:hover {
+  transform: translateY(-1px);
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .35);
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .08);
+}
+
+.icon-button svg {
+  width: 17px;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: currentColor;
+  stroke-width: 1.8;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.icon-button.loading svg {
+  animation: spin .8s linear infinite;
+}
+
+.container {
+  width: min(100% - 40px, 1240px);
+  margin: 0 auto;
+  padding: 26px 0 60px;
+}
+
+.panel {
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: var(--radius-lg);
+  background: linear-gradient(145deg, rgba(17, 30, 25, .96), rgba(10, 18, 15, .97));
+  box-shadow: var(--shadow);
+}
+
+.hero {
+  position: relative;
+  display: grid;
+  min-height: 440px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1.25fr) minmax(330px, .75fr);
+  background:
+    linear-gradient(100deg, rgba(12, 27, 21, .98) 0%, rgba(9, 19, 15, .95) 52%, rgba(8, 17, 14, .96) 100%);
+}
+
+.hero::before {
+  position: absolute;
+  width: 600px;
+  height: 600px;
+  top: -360px;
+  left: -130px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .08);
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  box-shadow:
+    0 0 0 80px rgba(56, 233, 145, .018),
+    0 0 0 160px rgba(56, 233, 145, .012);
+  content: "";
+}
+
+.hero::after {
+  position: absolute;
+  inset: 0;
+  pointer-events: none;
+  background:
+    linear-gradient(90deg, transparent 49.8%, rgba(56, 233, 145, .025) 50%, transparent 50.2%),
+    linear-gradient(0deg, transparent 49.8%, rgba(56, 233, 145, .02) 50%, transparent 50.2%);
+  background-size: 120px 120px;
+  content: "";
+  mask-image: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent 25%, #000 80%);
+}
+
+.hero-copy {
+  position: relative;
+  z-index: 2;
+  display: flex;
+  flex-direction: column;
+  justify-content: center;
+  padding: clamp(34px, 5vw, 64px);
+}
+
+.live-label {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  width: fit-content;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 9px;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .16em;
+}
+
+.live-label b,
+.console-state b {
+  font: inherit;
+}
+
+.live-label > span {
+  width: 7px;
+  height: 7px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: var(--green);
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 5px rgba(56, 233, 145, .1), 0 0 16px rgba(56, 233, 145, .6);
+}
+
+.hero h1 {
+  max-width: 700px;
+  margin: 18px 0 18px;
+  font-size: clamp(37px, 5vw, 67px);
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: -.055em;
+  line-height: .98;
+}
+
+.hero h1 span {
+  color: var(--green);
+}
+
+.hero-copy > p {
+  max-width: 650px;
+  margin: 0;
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 15px;
+  line-height: 1.7;
+}
+
+.hero-actions {
+  display: flex;
+  flex-wrap: wrap;
+  gap: 10px;
+  margin-top: 28px;
+}
+
+.btn {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  min-height: 44px;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: center;
+  gap: 8px;
+  padding: 0 17px;
+  cursor: pointer;
+  border: 1px solid transparent;
+  border-radius: 11px;
+  font-size: 12px;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  transition: transform .2s ease, filter .2s ease, border-color .2s ease, background .2s ease;
+}
+
+.btn:hover {
+  transform: translateY(-2px);
+}
+
+.btn.primary {
+  background: var(--green);
+  box-shadow: 0 10px 30px rgba(56, 233, 145, .16);
+  color: #042116;
+}
+
+.btn.primary:hover {
+  filter: brightness(1.08);
+}
+
+.btn.primary svg {
+  width: 16px;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: currentColor;
+  stroke-width: 2;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.btn.secondary {
+  border-color: var(--line-strong);
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .035);
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+}
+
+.btn.secondary:hover {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .3);
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .06);
+  color: var(--text);
+}
+
+.hero-footnote {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 8px;
+  margin-top: 24px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 10px;
+  line-height: 1.5;
+}
+
+.hero-footnote svg {
+  width: 16px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: var(--green);
+  stroke-width: 1.7;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.hero-console {
+  position: relative;
+  z-index: 2;
+  align-self: center;
+  margin: 32px 32px 32px 0;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(189, 222, 205, .14);
+  border-radius: 18px;
+  background: rgba(4, 11, 8, .66);
+  box-shadow: 0 24px 60px rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);
+  backdrop-filter: blur(10px);
+}
+
+.console-head,
+.console-footer {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  padding: 15px 17px;
+  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line);
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+  text-transform: uppercase;
+}
+
+.console-state {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 6px;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  letter-spacing: .12em;
+}
+
+.live-label.paused,
+.console-state.paused {
+  color: var(--amber);
+}
+
+.live-label.danger,
+.console-state.danger {
+  color: var(--red);
+}
+
+.console-state i,
+.secure-label i {
+  width: 6px;
+  height: 6px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: currentColor;
+  box-shadow: 0 0 10px currentColor;
+}
+
+.engine-flow {
+  margin: 0;
+  padding: 7px 17px;
+  list-style: none;
+}
+
+.engine-flow li {
+  position: relative;
+  display: grid;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 12px;
+  padding: 14px 0;
+  grid-template-columns: 27px 1fr 20px;
+}
+
+.engine-flow li:not(:last-child) {
+  border-bottom: 1px dashed rgba(185, 219, 202, .1);
+}
+
+.flow-number {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 26px;
+  height: 26px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+}
+
+.engine-flow strong,
+.engine-flow small {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.engine-flow strong {
+  color: #deebe4;
+  font-size: 11px;
+  line-height: 1.3;
+}
+
+.engine-flow small {
+  margin-top: 3px;
+  color: #71867b;
+  font-size: 9px;
+}
+
+.flow-check {
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  text-align: center;
+}
+
+.engine-flow .active .flow-number {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .35);
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .09);
+  color: var(--green);
+}
+
+.flow-pulse {
+  justify-self: center;
+  width: 8px;
+  height: 8px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: var(--green);
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 5px rgba(56, 233, 145, .08), 0 0 12px rgba(56, 233, 145, .4);
+}
+
+.engine-flow.paused .flow-pulse {
+  background: var(--amber);
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 5px rgba(255, 202, 100, .08), 0 0 12px rgba(255, 202, 100, .35);
+}
+
+.engine-flow.failed .flow-pulse {
+  background: var(--red);
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 5px rgba(255, 113, 132, .08), 0 0 12px rgba(255, 113, 132, .35);
+}
+
+.console-footer {
+  border-top: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-bottom: 0;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .018);
+}
+
+.console-footer strong {
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 9px;
+}
+
+.warnings:empty {
+  display: none;
+}
+
+.warnings {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  margin-top: 16px;
+}
+
+.warning {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: flex-start;
+  gap: 11px;
+  padding: 12px 14px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(255, 202, 100, .24);
+  border-radius: 12px;
+  background: rgba(255, 202, 100, .07);
+  color: #ead5a8;
+  font-size: 11px;
+  line-height: 1.55;
+}
+
+.warning svg {
+  width: 16px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: var(--amber);
+  stroke-width: 1.8;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.stats-grid {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 12px;
+  margin: 16px 0 58px;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(4, minmax(0, 1fr));
+}
+
+.stat {
+  position: relative;
+  display: flex;
+  min-height: 134px;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 15px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  padding: 20px;
+  box-shadow: 0 14px 40px rgba(0, 0, 0, .2);
+}
+
+.stat::after {
+  position: absolute;
+  top: -38px;
+  right: -38px;
+  width: 100px;
+  height: 100px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .02);
+  content: "";
+}
+
+.stat.featured {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .2);
+  background: linear-gradient(145deg, rgba(19, 47, 35, .98), rgba(9, 21, 16, .98));
+}
+
+.stat-icon {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 40px;
+  height: 40px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  border: 1px solid currentColor;
+  border-radius: 12px;
+  place-items: center;
+  background: color-mix(in srgb, currentColor 9%, transparent);
+}
+
+.stat-icon svg {
+  width: 19px;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: currentColor;
+  stroke-width: 1.7;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.stat-icon.blue { color: var(--blue); }
+.stat-icon.green { color: var(--green); }
+.stat-icon.violet { color: var(--violet); }
+.stat-icon.amber { color: var(--amber); }
+
+.stat-copy {
+  min-width: 0;
+}
+
+.stat-copy > span,
+.stat-copy > small {
+  display: block;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+  line-height: 1.35;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+}
+
+.stat-copy > span {
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.stat-copy > small {
+  font-weight: 600;
+  letter-spacing: 0;
+  white-space: normal;
+}
+
+.stat-copy strong {
+  display: block;
+  margin: 5px 0 4px;
+  font-size: clamp(26px, 2.7vw, 38px);
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: -.04em;
+  line-height: 1;
+}
+
+.content-section {
+  margin-top: 58px;
+  scroll-margin-top: calc(var(--header-height) + 24px);
+}
+
+.section-head {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: flex-end;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 24px;
+  margin: 0 2px 18px;
+}
+
+.eyebrow,
+.panel-kicker {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 8px;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .16em;
+}
+
+.eyebrow i {
+  width: 18px;
+  height: 1px;
+  background: var(--green);
+}
+
+.section-head h2 {
+  margin: 7px 0 0;
+  font-size: clamp(26px, 3vw, 35px);
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: -.035em;
+  line-height: 1.1;
+}
+
+.section-head p {
+  margin: 8px 0 0;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 12px;
+  line-height: 1.5;
+}
+
+.update-time,
+.section-badge {
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  padding: 8px 11px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 9px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .025);
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 750;
+  letter-spacing: .05em;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.section-badge {
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: .1em;
+}
+
+.picks {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 14px;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
+}
+
+.pick {
+  position: relative;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  padding: 0;
+  box-shadow: 0 18px 48px rgba(0, 0, 0, .23);
+  transition: transform .25s ease, border-color .25s ease, box-shadow .25s ease;
+}
+
+.pick:hover {
+  transform: translateY(-3px);
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .25);
+  box-shadow: 0 24px 56px rgba(0, 0, 0, .3);
+}
+
+.pick::before {
+  position: absolute;
+  z-index: 2;
+  top: 0;
+  right: 0;
+  left: 0;
+  height: 2px;
+  background: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent, var(--green), transparent);
+  content: "";
+  opacity: .8;
+}
+
+.pick-head {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: flex-start;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 16px;
+  padding: 18px 20px 15px;
+  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line);
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .014);
+}
+
+.pick-meta {
+  display: flex;
+  min-width: 0;
+  flex-wrap: wrap;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 7px;
+}
+
+.rank,
+.competition-chip {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  min-height: 24px;
+  align-items: center;
+  padding: 4px 8px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 7px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: .09em;
+  line-height: 1.2;
+}
+
+.rank {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .25);
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .07);
+  color: var(--green);
+}
+
+.kickoff {
+  width: 100%;
+  margin-top: 3px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 10px;
+}
+
+.score-ring {
+  position: relative;
+  display: grid;
+  width: 58px;
+  height: 58px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  place-items: center;
+}
+
+.score-ring > svg {
+  position: absolute;
+  inset: 0;
+  width: 58px;
+  height: 58px;
+  transform: rotate(-90deg);
+  fill: none;
+  stroke-width: 3.5;
+}
+
+.score-track {
+  stroke: rgba(255, 255, 255, .07);
+}
+
+.score-value {
+  stroke: var(--green);
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  filter: drop-shadow(0 0 4px rgba(56, 233, 145, .35));
+}
+
+.score-ring > span {
+  position: relative;
+  z-index: 1;
+  text-align: center;
+}
+
+.score-ring strong,
+.score-ring small {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.score-ring strong {
+  color: var(--green-bright);
+  font-size: 15px;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  line-height: 1;
+}
+
+.score-ring small {
+  margin-top: 2px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 6px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .1em;
+}
+
+.pick-body {
+  padding: 20px;
+}
+
+.matchup {
+  display: grid;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 11px;
+  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1fr) 30px minmax(0, 1fr);
+}
+
+.team {
+  display: flex;
+  min-width: 0;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 9px;
+}
+
+.team:last-child {
+  flex-direction: row-reverse;
+  text-align: right;
+}
+
+.team-badge {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 35px;
+  height: 35px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line-strong);
+  border-radius: 11px;
+  background: linear-gradient(145deg, rgba(255, 255, 255, .07), rgba(255, 255, 255, .02));
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .02em;
+}
+
+.team strong {
+  overflow: hidden;
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-weight: 750;
+  line-height: 1.3;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+}
+
+.versus {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 29px;
+  height: 29px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .025);
+  place-items: center;
+  color: #6f8278;
+  font-size: 7px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+}
+
+.selection-box {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 14px;
+  margin: 18px 0 14px;
+  padding: 13px 14px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .18);
+  border-radius: 12px;
+  background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(56, 233, 145, .09), rgba(56, 233, 145, .025));
+}
+
+.selection-box > div span,
+.selection-box > div strong {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.selection-box > div span {
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: .1em;
+}
+
+.selection-box > div strong {
+  margin-top: 4px;
+  color: #dffbed;
+  font-size: 14px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+}
+
+.selection-signal {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 6px;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .1em;
+}
+
+.selection-signal i {
+  width: 6px;
+  height: 6px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: currentColor;
+  box-shadow: 0 0 9px currentColor;
+}
+
+.metrics {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(4, minmax(0, 1fr));
+}
+
+.metric {
+  min-width: 0;
+  padding: 10px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 10px;
+  background: rgba(2, 8, 5, .26);
+}
+
+.metric span,
+.metric strong {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.metric span {
+  overflow: hidden;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 7px;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.metric strong {
+  margin-top: 5px;
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+  font-weight: 800;
+}
+
+.confidence-line {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 10px;
+  margin: 15px 0 12px;
+}
+
+.confidence-line > span {
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .07em;
+}
+
+.bar {
+  appearance: none;
+  flex: 1;
+  height: 5px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  padding: 0;
+  border: 0;
+  border-radius: 999px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .06);
+}
+
+.bar::-webkit-progress-bar {
+  border-radius: inherit;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .06);
+}
+
+.bar::-webkit-progress-value {
+  border-radius: inherit;
+  background: linear-gradient(90deg, #20b96c, var(--green-bright));
+  box-shadow: 0 0 12px rgba(56, 233, 145, .35);
+}
+
+.bar::-moz-progress-bar {
+  border-radius: inherit;
+  background: linear-gradient(90deg, #20b96c, var(--green-bright));
+  box-shadow: 0 0 12px rgba(56, 233, 145, .35);
+}
+
+.reasons {
+  display: flex;
+  flex-wrap: wrap;
+  gap: 6px;
+}
+
+.tag {
+  padding: 5px 8px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 999px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .024);
+  color: #9fb3a8;
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 650;
+  line-height: 1.2;
+}
+
+.models-detail {
+  margin-top: 14px;
+  border-top: 1px solid var(--line);
+}
+
+.models-detail summary {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  padding: 13px 0 0;
+  cursor: pointer;
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .04em;
+  list-style: none;
+}
+
+.models-detail summary::-webkit-details-marker {
+  display: none;
+}
+
+.models-detail summary::after {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 19px;
+  height: 19px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 6px;
+  content: "+";
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 13px;
+  transition: transform .2s ease;
+}
+
+.models-detail[open] summary::after {
+  transform: rotate(45deg);
+}
+
+.model-table {
+  display: grid;
+  margin-top: 12px;
+  padding: 5px 12px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 10px;
+  background: rgba(0, 0, 0, .14);
+}
+
+.model-row {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 14px;
+  padding: 8px 0;
+  border-bottom: 1px dashed rgba(185, 219, 202, .09);
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  line-height: 1.3;
+}
+
+.model-row:last-child {
+  border-bottom: 0;
+}
+
+.model-row b {
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  color: var(--text);
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+}
+
+.pick-tools {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: stretch;
+  gap: 8px;
+  margin-top: 14px;
+}
+
+.copyline {
+  display: flex;
+  gap: 6px;
+}
+
+.copybtn {
+  display: inline-flex;
+  min-height: 36px;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 6px;
+  padding: 0 10px;
+  cursor: pointer;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 9px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .025);
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  transition: border-color .2s ease, background .2s ease, color .2s ease;
+}
+
+.copybtn:hover {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .27);
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .06);
+  color: var(--green-bright);
+}
+
+.copybtn svg {
+  width: 13px;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: currentColor;
+  stroke-width: 1.8;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.oddbox {
+  margin-top: 16px;
+  padding: 14px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 12px;
+  background: rgba(3, 10, 7, .34);
+}
+
+.odd-input-row {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 10px;
+}
+
+.odd-input-row label {
+  min-width: 0;
+  flex: 1;
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .04em;
+}
+
+.odd-input-wrap {
+  position: relative;
+  width: 116px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+}
+
+.odd-input-wrap::before {
+  position: absolute;
+  top: 50%;
+  left: 11px;
+  transform: translateY(-50%);
+  color: var(--green);
+  content: "@";
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+}
+
+.oddbox input {
+  width: 100%;
+  height: 37px;
+  padding: 0 9px 0 27px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line-strong);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  outline: 0;
+  background: #07110c;
+  color: var(--text);
+  font-size: 12px;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  transition: border-color .2s ease, box-shadow .2s ease;
+}
+
+.oddbox input:focus {
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .55);
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 3px rgba(56, 233, 145, .08);
+}
+
+.oddresult {
+  display: block;
+  min-height: 16px;
+  margin-top: 9px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  line-height: 1.5;
+}
+
+.oddresult.good { color: var(--green); }
+.oddresult.fair { color: var(--amber); }
+.oddresult.weak { color: var(--red); }
+
+.ticket-grid {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 14px;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr));
+}
+
+.ticket {
+  position: relative;
+  min-height: 350px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  padding: 20px;
+  box-shadow: 0 18px 48px rgba(0, 0, 0, .22);
+  transition: transform .25s ease, border-color .25s ease;
+}
+
+.ticket:hover {
+  transform: translateY(-3px);
+}
+
+.ticket::before {
+  position: absolute;
+  top: 0;
+  right: 0;
+  left: 0;
+  height: 2px;
+  background: var(--profile-color, var(--green));
+  box-shadow: 0 0 18px var(--profile-color, var(--green));
+  content: "";
+  opacity: .8;
+}
+
+.ticket[data-profile="safe"] { --profile-color: var(--green); }
+.ticket[data-profile="balanced"] { --profile-color: var(--blue); }
+.ticket[data-profile="freebet"] { --profile-color: var(--violet); }
+
+.ticket-head {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: flex-start;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 12px;
+}
+
+.ticket-profile {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 10px;
+}
+
+.ticket-icon {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 36px;
+  height: 36px;
+  border: 1px solid color-mix(in srgb, var(--profile-color) 35%, transparent);
+  border-radius: 11px;
+  background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--profile-color) 9%, transparent);
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--profile-color);
+}
+
+.ticket-icon svg {
+  width: 18px;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: currentColor;
+  stroke-width: 1.7;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+  stroke-linejoin: round;
+}
+
+.ticket-profile h3,
+.ticket-profile span {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.ticket-profile h3 {
+  margin: 0;
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: -.01em;
+}
+
+.ticket-profile span {
+  margin-top: 3px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 700;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+}
+
+.risk-chip {
+  padding: 5px 7px;
+  border: 1px solid color-mix(in srgb, var(--profile-color) 25%, transparent);
+  border-radius: 999px;
+  background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--profile-color) 6%, transparent);
+  color: var(--profile-color);
+  font-size: 7px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+}
+
+.ticket-odd {
+  margin: 23px 0 19px;
+}
+
+.ticket-odd span,
+.ticket-odd strong {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.ticket-odd span {
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+}
+
+.ticket-odd strong {
+  margin-top: 4px;
+  color: var(--profile-color);
+  font-size: 34px;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: -.045em;
+  line-height: 1;
+}
+
+.ticket-summary {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 6px;
+  padding: 11px 12px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 10px;
+  background: rgba(0, 0, 0, .13);
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(3, 1fr);
+}
+
+.ticket-summary div:not(:last-child) {
+  border-right: 1px solid var(--line);
+}
+
+.ticket-summary span,
+.ticket-summary strong {
+  display: block;
+  text-align: center;
+}
+
+.ticket-summary span {
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 6px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: .07em;
+}
+
+.ticket-summary strong {
+  margin-top: 4px;
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+}
+
+.target-state {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 6px;
+  margin: 13px 0 7px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  font-weight: 700;
+}
+
+.target-state i {
+  width: 6px;
+  height: 6px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: var(--amber);
+}
+
+.target-state.met {
+  color: var(--green);
+}
+
+.target-state.met i {
+  background: currentColor;
+}
+
+.ticket-legs {
+  margin-top: 9px;
+}
+
+.ticket-leg {
+  position: relative;
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 3px;
+  padding: 10px 0 10px 17px;
+  border-top: 1px dashed rgba(185, 219, 202, .1);
+}
+
+.ticket-leg::before {
+  position: absolute;
+  top: 15px;
+  left: 2px;
+  width: 6px;
+  height: 6px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--profile-color);
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: color-mix(in srgb, var(--profile-color) 25%, #06100b);
+  content: "";
+}
+
+.ticket-leg b {
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-weight: 750;
+  line-height: 1.35;
+}
+
+.ticket-leg span {
+  overflow: hidden;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  line-height: 1.4;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.ticket .empty {
+  min-height: 235px;
+  padding: 36px 12px;
+}
+
+.system-layout {
+  display: grid;
+  align-items: stretch;
+  gap: 14px;
+  grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1.65fr) minmax(290px, .75fr);
+}
+
+.health-panel {
+  padding: 20px;
+  box-shadow: 0 18px 48px rgba(0, 0, 0, .22);
+}
+
+.panel-heading {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: flex-start;
+  justify-content: space-between;
+  gap: 16px;
+  padding: 2px 2px 17px;
+  border-bottom: 1px solid var(--line);
+}
+
+.panel-heading h3,
+.methodology h3 {
+  margin: 5px 0 0;
+  font-size: 17px;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  letter-spacing: -.025em;
+}
+
+.secure-label {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 7px;
+  padding: 6px 8px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .18);
+  border-radius: 999px;
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .05);
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 7px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+}
+
+.health {
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 8px;
+  padding-top: 16px;
+  grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr));
+}
+
+.health-card {
+  position: relative;
+  min-height: 79px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  padding: 13px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 11px;
+  background: rgba(2, 8, 5, .22);
+}
+
+.health-card > span,
+.health-card > strong,
+.health-card > small {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.health-card > span {
+  overflow: hidden;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 7px;
+  font-weight: 850;
+  letter-spacing: .08em;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.health-card > strong {
+  overflow: hidden;
+  margin-top: 7px;
+  font-size: 13px;
+  font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;
+  font-weight: 800;
+  line-height: 1.25;
+  text-overflow: ellipsis;
+  white-space: nowrap;
+}
+
+.health-card > small {
+  margin-top: 4px;
+  color: #6f8278;
+  font-size: 7px;
+}
+
+.provider-status {
+  display: inline-flex !important;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 6px;
+}
+
+.provider-status i {
+  width: 6px;
+  height: 6px;
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  background: var(--muted);
+}
+
+.provider-status.online {
+  color: var(--green);
+}
+
+.provider-status.online i {
+  background: currentColor;
+  box-shadow: 0 0 8px currentColor;
+}
+
+.provider-status.partial {
+  color: var(--amber);
+}
+
+.provider-status.partial i {
+  background: currentColor;
+  box-shadow: 0 0 8px currentColor;
+}
+
+.methodology {
+  position: relative;
+  overflow: hidden;
+  padding: 25px;
+  border-color: rgba(56, 233, 145, .16);
+  background: linear-gradient(145deg, rgba(18, 42, 31, .97), rgba(9, 20, 15, .98));
+}
+
+.methodology::after {
+  position: absolute;
+  right: -70px;
+  bottom: -70px;
+  width: 180px;
+  height: 180px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .08);
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  box-shadow: 0 0 0 34px rgba(56, 233, 145, .018), 0 0 0 68px rgba(56, 233, 145, .01);
+  content: "";
+}
+
+.methodology > p {
+  margin: 11px 0 0;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 10px;
+  line-height: 1.6;
+}
+
+.methodology ul {
+  position: relative;
+  z-index: 1;
+  display: grid;
+  gap: 12px;
+  margin: 19px 0;
+  padding: 0;
+  list-style: none;
+}
+
+.methodology li {
+  display: grid;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 10px;
+  grid-template-columns: 28px 1fr;
+}
+
+.methodology li > span {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 27px;
+  height: 27px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .2);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .06);
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 7px;
+  font-weight: 900;
+}
+
+.methodology li strong,
+.methodology li small {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.methodology li strong {
+  font-size: 10px;
+}
+
+.methodology li small {
+  margin-top: 3px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 8px;
+  line-height: 1.4;
+}
+
+.methodology-note {
+  position: relative;
+  z-index: 1;
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: flex-start;
+  gap: 8px;
+  padding-top: 14px;
+  border-top: 1px solid var(--line);
+  color: #91a99d;
+  font-size: 8px;
+  line-height: 1.5;
+}
+
+.methodology-note svg {
+  width: 14px;
+  flex: 0 0 auto;
+  fill: none;
+  stroke: var(--green);
+  stroke-width: 1.8;
+  stroke-linecap: round;
+}
+
+.empty {
+  display: flex;
+  min-height: 160px;
+  align-items: center;
+  justify-content: center;
+  gap: 10px;
+  padding: 28px;
+  color: var(--muted);
+  font-size: 11px;
+  line-height: 1.6;
+  text-align: center;
+}
+
+.picks > .empty {
+  grid-column: 1 / -1;
+}
+
+.empty-content {
+  max-width: 420px;
+}
+
+.empty-icon {
+  display: grid;
+  width: 42px;
+  height: 42px;
+  margin: 0 auto 11px;
+  border: 1px solid var(--line);
+  border-radius: 12px;
+  background: rgba(255, 255, 255, .025);
+  place-items: center;
+  color: var(--green);
+  font-size: 16px;
+}
+
+.empty strong,
+.empty small {
+  display: block;
+}
+
+.empty strong {
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 12px;
+}
+
+.empty small {
+  margin-top: 5px;
+  font-size: 9px;
+}
+
+.loading-state {
+  min-height: 220px;
+}
+
+.loader {
+  width: 16px;
+  height: 16px;
+  border: 2px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .18);
+  border-top-color: var(--green);
+  border-radius: 50%;
+  animation: spin .75s linear infinite;
+}
+
+.skeleton {
+  position: relative;
+  min-height: 120px;
+  overflow: hidden;
+}
+
+.skeleton::after {
+  position: absolute;
+  inset: 0;
+  transform: translateX(-100%);
+  background: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent, rgba(255, 255, 255, .035), transparent);
+  content: "";
+  animation: shimmer 1.6s infinite;
+}
+
+.toast {
+  position: fixed;
+  z-index: 200;
+  right: 22px;
+  bottom: 22px;
+  max-width: min(360px, calc(100vw - 32px));
+  padding: 11px 14px;
+  transform: translateY(20px);
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .27);
+  border-radius: 11px;
+  background: rgba(13, 29, 22, .96);
+  box-shadow: var(--shadow);
+  color: #dcf8e9;
+  font-size: 10px;
+  font-weight: 750;
+  opacity: 0;
+  pointer-events: none;
+  transition: opacity .2s ease, transform .2s ease;
+}
+
+.toast.show {
+  transform: translateY(0);
+  opacity: 1;
+}
+
+footer {
+  display: grid;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 16px;
+  margin-top: 64px;
+  padding: 25px 2px 0;
+  border-top: 1px solid var(--line);
+  grid-template-columns: auto 1fr auto;
+  color: #657a6f;
+  font-size: 8px;
+  line-height: 1.5;
+}
+
+.footer-brand {
+  display: flex;
+  align-items: center;
+  gap: 8px;
+  color: var(--muted-strong);
+  font-size: 9px;
+  letter-spacing: .06em;
+}
+
+.brand-mark.small {
+  width: 24px;
+  height: 24px;
+  border: 1px solid rgba(56, 233, 145, .2);
+  border-radius: 8px;
+  background: rgba(56, 233, 145, .06);
+  font-size: 11px;
+}
+
+footer p {
+  margin: 0;
+  text-align: center;
+}
+
+footer > span {
+  text-align: right;
+}
+
+@keyframes spin {
+  to { transform: rotate(360deg); }
+}
+
+@keyframes shimmer {
+  100% { transform: translateX(100%); }
+}
+
+@keyframes status-pulse {
+  0%, 100% { box-shadow: 0 0 0 0 rgba(56, 233, 145, .38); }
+  50% { box-shadow: 0 0 0 5px rgba(56, 233, 145, 0); }
+}
+
+@media (max-width: 1050px) {
+  .hero {
+    grid-template-columns: minmax(0, 1.15fr) minmax(300px, .85fr);
+  }
+
+  .hero-copy {
+    padding: 40px;
+  }
+
+  .hero-console {
+    margin: 28px 28px 28px 0;
+  }
+
+  .stats-grid {
+    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  }
+
+  .stat-copy strong {
+    font-size: 32px;
+  }
+
+  .metrics {
+    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  }
+
+  .system-layout {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
+
+  .methodology ul {
+    grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  }
+}
+
+@media (max-width: 820px) {
+  :root {
+    --header-height: 66px;
+  }
+
+  .topbar-inner,
+  .container {
+    width: min(100% - 28px, 1240px);
+  }
+
+  .brand-copy small,
+  .main-nav {
+    display: none;
+  }
+
+  .hero {
+    min-height: 0;
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
+
+  .hero-copy {
+    padding: 38px 28px 28px;
+  }
+
+  .hero h1 {
+    max-width: 640px;
+  }
+
+  .hero-console {
+    margin: 0 28px 28px;
+  }
+
+  .picks,
+  .ticket-grid {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
+
+  .ticket {
+    min-height: auto;
+  }
+
+  .health {
+    grid-template-columns: repeat(2, minmax(0, 1fr));
+  }
+
+  .methodology ul {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
+
+  footer {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+    justify-items: center;
+    text-align: center;
+  }
+
+  footer > span {
+    text-align: center;
+  }
+}
+
+@media (max-width: 560px) {
+  .topbar-inner,
+  .container {
+    width: min(100% - 20px, 1240px);
+  }
+
+  .topbar-actions .pill {
+    max-width: 120px;
+    overflow: hidden;
+  }
+
+  .brand-mark {
+    width: 30px;
+  }
+
+  .brand-copy strong {
+    font-size: 13px;
+  }
+
+  .container {
+    padding-top: 14px;
+  }
+
+  .hero-copy {
+    padding: 30px 20px 24px;
+  }
+
+  .hero h1 {
+    margin-top: 14px;
+    font-size: clamp(34px, 11vw, 48px);
+  }
+
+  .hero-copy > p {
+    font-size: 13px;
+  }
+
+  .hero-actions {
+    align-items: stretch;
+    flex-direction: column;
+  }
+
+  .btn {
+    width: 100%;
+  }
+
+  .hero-console {
+    margin: 0 14px 14px;
+  }
+
+  .hero-footnote {
+    align-items: flex-start;
+  }
+
+  .stats-grid {
+    gap: 9px;
+    margin-bottom: 48px;
+  }
+
+  .stat {
+    min-height: 126px;
+    align-items: flex-start;
+    flex-direction: column;
+    gap: 11px;
+    padding: 15px;
+  }
+
+  .stat-icon {
+    width: 34px;
+    height: 34px;
+  }
+
+  .stat-copy strong {
+    font-size: 27px;
+  }
+
+  .content-section {
+    margin-top: 48px;
+  }
+
+  .section-head {
+    align-items: flex-start;
+    flex-direction: column;
+    gap: 12px;
+  }
+
+  .section-head h2 {
+    font-size: 27px;
+  }
+
+  .update-time,
+  .section-badge {
+    align-self: flex-start;
+  }
+
+  .pick-head,
+  .pick-body {
+    padding-right: 15px;
+    padding-left: 15px;
+  }
+
+  .matchup {
+    gap: 7px;
+  }
+
+  .team {
+    align-items: flex-start;
+    flex-direction: column;
+  }
+
+  .team:last-child {
+    align-items: flex-end;
+    flex-direction: column;
+  }
+
+  .team strong {
+    font-size: 11px;
+  }
+
+  .metrics {
+    gap: 6px;
+  }
+
+  .metric {
+    padding: 9px;
+  }
+
+  .selection-box {
+    align-items: flex-start;
+    flex-direction: column;
+    gap: 9px;
+  }
+
+  .odd-input-row {
+    align-items: stretch;
+    flex-direction: column;
+  }
+
+  .odd-input-wrap {
+    width: 100%;
+  }
+
+  .copyline {
+    width: 100%;
+  }
+
+  .copybtn {
+    flex: 1;
+    justify-content: center;
+  }
+
+  .health-panel,
+  .methodology,
+  .ticket {
+    padding: 16px;
+  }
+
+  .health {
+    grid-template-columns: 1fr;
+  }
+
+  .panel-heading {
+    align-items: flex-start;
+    flex-direction: column;
+  }
+}
+
+@media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+  html {
+    scroll-behavior: auto;
+  }
+
+  *,
+  *::before,
+  *::after {
+    scroll-behavior: auto !important;
+    animation-duration: .01ms !important;
+    animation-iteration-count: 1 !important;
+    transition-duration: .01ms !important;
+  }
+}

app/storage.py

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 import json
 import logging
+import math
 import os
 from pathlib import Path
 import shutil
@@ -15,6 +16,14 @@ from app.models import FinishedMatch
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 
+def _reject_non_finite(value: str):
+    raise ValueError(f"constante JSON não finita: {value}")
+
+
+class StorageCorruptionError(RuntimeError):
+    pass
+
+
 class StateStore:
     def __init__(self, data_dir: Path, hf_token: str = "", hf_dataset_repo: str = ""):
         self.data_dir = data_dir
@@ -29,7 +38,7 @@ class StateStore:
         fd, tmp = tempfile.mkstemp(prefix=path.name, dir=str(path.parent))
         try:
             with os.fdopen(fd, "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
-                json.dump(payload, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)
+                json.dump(payload, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2, allow_nan=False)
                 f.flush()
                 os.fsync(f.fileno())
             os.replace(tmp, path)
@@ -37,23 +46,58 @@ class StateStore:
             if os.path.exists(tmp):
                 os.unlink(tmp)
 
+    @staticmethod
+    def _quarantine(path: Path) -> Path | None:
+        if not path.exists():
+            return None
+        try:
+            marker = path.stat().st_mtime_ns
+            target = path.with_name(f"{path.name}.{marker}.corrupt")
+            if not target.exists():
+                shutil.copy2(path, target)
+            logger.error("Cópia de segurança do arquivo inválido criada em %s", target)
+            return target
+        except Exception as exc:
+            logger.error("Não foi possível preservar o arquivo inválido %s: %s", path, exc)
+            return None
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _empty_state(*, status: str = "waiting", warning: str | None = None) -> dict:
+        warnings = [warning] if warning else ["Faça o primeiro scan depois de configurar os Secrets."]
+        return {
+            "generated_at": None,
+            "status": status,
+            "summary": {
+                "events": 0,
+                "historical_matches": 0,
+                "approved": 0,
+                "rejected": 0,
+            },
+            "picks": [],
+            "tickets": {},
+            "performance": {},
+            "providers": {},
+            "warnings": warnings,
+        }
+
     def load_state(self) -> dict:
         if not self.state_path.exists():
-            return {
-                "generated_at": None,
-                "status": "waiting",
-                "summary": {"events": 0, "approved": 0, "rejected": 0},
-                "picks": [],
-                "tickets": {},
-                "performance": {},
-                "providers": {},
-                "warnings": ["Faça o primeiro scan depois de configurar os Secrets."],
-            }
+            return self._empty_state()
         try:
-            return json.loads(self.state_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+            value = json.loads(
+                self.state_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"),
+                parse_constant=_reject_non_finite,
+            )
+            if not isinstance(value, dict):
+                raise ValueError("a raiz precisa ser um objeto JSON")
+            return value
         except Exception as exc:
             logger.error("state.json inválido: %s", exc)
-            return {"status": "error", "picks": [], "tickets": {}, "warnings": [str(exc)]}
+            self._quarantine(self.state_path)
+            return self._empty_state(
+                status="error",
+                warning="O estado persistido estava inválido e foi ignorado.",
+            )
 
     def save_state(self, state: dict) -> None:
         self._atomic_json(self.state_path, state)
@@ -62,10 +106,59 @@ class StateStore:
         if not self.history_path.exists():
             return []
         try:
-            value = json.loads(self.history_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
-            return value if isinstance(value, list) else []
-        except Exception:
-            return []
+            value = json.loads(
+                self.history_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"),
+                parse_constant=_reject_non_finite,
+            )
+            if not isinstance(value, list):
+                raise ValueError("a raiz não é uma lista")
+            valid: list[dict] = []
+            invalid_rows = 0
+            for item in value:
+                if not isinstance(item, dict):
+                    invalid_rows += 1
+                    continue
+                row = dict(item)
+                try:
+                    for field in (
+                        "probability",
+                        "raw_model_probability",
+                        "market_probability",
+                        "conservative_probability",
+                    ):
+                        if row.get(field) is None:
+                            continue
+                        number = float(row[field])
+                        if not math.isfinite(number) or not 0.0 <= number <= 1.0:
+                            raise ValueError(field)
+                        row[field] = number
+                    if row.get("odd") is not None:
+                        odd = float(row["odd"])
+                        if not math.isfinite(odd) or not 1.0 <= odd <= 1000.0:
+                            raise ValueError("odd")
+                        row["odd"] = odd
+                    if row.get("profit_units") is not None:
+                        profit = float(row["profit_units"])
+                        if not math.isfinite(profit):
+                            raise ValueError("profit_units")
+                        row["profit_units"] = profit
+                    if row.get("result") not in {None, "win", "loss"}:
+                        raise ValueError("result")
+                except (TypeError, ValueError):
+                    invalid_rows += 1
+                    continue
+                valid.append(row)
+            if invalid_rows:
+                self._quarantine(self.history_path)
+                logger.warning(
+                    "history.json: %d registro(s) inválido(s) ignorado(s)",
+                    invalid_rows,
+                )
+            return valid
+        except Exception as exc:
+            logger.error("history.json inválido: %s", exc)
+            self._quarantine(self.history_path)
+            raise StorageCorruptionError("history.json inválido; original preservado") from exc
 
     def save_history(self, history: list[dict]) -> None:
         self._atomic_json(self.history_path, history)
@@ -74,14 +167,27 @@ class StateStore:
         if not self.matches_path.exists():
             return []
         try:
-            rows = json.loads(self.matches_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
-        except Exception:
-            return []
+            rows = json.loads(
+                self.matches_path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"),
+                parse_constant=_reject_non_finite,
+            )
+        except Exception as exc:
+            logger.error("matches.json inválido: %s", exc)
+            self._quarantine(self.matches_path)
+            raise StorageCorruptionError("matches.json inválido; original preservado") from exc
+
+        if not isinstance(rows, list):
+            logger.error("matches.json inválido: a raiz não é uma lista")
+            self._quarantine(self.matches_path)
+            raise StorageCorruptionError("matches.json inválido; original preservado")
 
         out: list[FinishedMatch] = []
-        for row in rows if isinstance(rows, list) else []:
+        invalid_rows = 0
+        for row in rows:
             try:
                 dt = datetime.fromisoformat(str(row["utc_date"]).replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+                if dt.tzinfo is None:
+                    dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
                 out.append(FinishedMatch(
                     match_id=str(row.get("match_id") or ""),
                     competition=str(row["competition"]),
@@ -96,7 +202,11 @@ class StateStore:
                     away_aliases=tuple(row.get("away_aliases") or ()),
                 ))
             except Exception:
+                invalid_rows += 1
                 continue
+        if invalid_rows:
+            self._quarantine(self.matches_path)
+            logger.warning("matches.json: %d registro(s) inválido(s) ignorado(s)", invalid_rows)
         return out
 
     def save_matches(self, matches: list[FinishedMatch]) -> None:
@@ -147,18 +257,19 @@ class StateStore:
         api = HfApi(token=self.hf_token)
         try:
             api.create_repo(self.hf_dataset_repo, repo_type="dataset", exist_ok=True, private=True)
-            for local, remote in (
-                (self.state_path, "state/state.json"),
-                (self.history_path, "state/history.json"),
-                (self.matches_path, "state/matches.json"),
-            ):
-                if local.exists():
-                    api.upload_file(
-                        path_or_fileobj=str(local),
-                        path_in_repo=remote,
-                        repo_id=self.hf_dataset_repo,
-                        repo_type="dataset",
-                        commit_message="Update Safe Bet precision state",
-                    )
+            available = [
+                path.name
+                for path in (self.state_path, self.history_path, self.matches_path)
+                if path.exists()
+            ]
+            if available:
+                api.upload_folder(
+                    folder_path=str(self.data_dir),
+                    path_in_repo="state",
+                    allow_patterns=available,
+                    repo_id=self.hf_dataset_repo,
+                    repo_type="dataset",
+                    commit_message="Update Safe Bet precision state",
+                )
         except Exception as exc:
             logger.warning("Backup HF falhou (não interrompe o bot): %s", exc)

app/templates/index.html

@@ -3,59 +3,200 @@
 <head>
   <meta charset="utf-8">
   <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1,viewport-fit=cover">
-  <meta name="theme-color" content="#07111f">
-  <title>Safe Bet AI</title>
+  <meta name="theme-color" content="#07100d">
+  <meta name="description" content="Safe Bet AI: inteligência estatística e gestão de risco para futebol.">
+  <title>Safe Bet AI — Painel de precisão</title>
   <link rel="stylesheet" href="/static/style.css">
 </head>
 <body>
-  <div class="noise"></div>
+  <a class="skip-link" href="#main-content">Ir para o conteúdo</a>
+  <div class="ambient ambient-one" aria-hidden="true"></div>
+  <div class="ambient ambient-two" aria-hidden="true"></div>
+  <div class="noise" aria-hidden="true"></div>
+
   <header class="topbar">
-    <div>
-      <div class="brand"><span class="shield">◆</span> SAFE BET AI</div>
-      <div class="subtitle">Precision Football Risk Engine • {{ model_version }}</div>
+    <div class="topbar-inner">
+      <a class="brand" href="#overview" aria-label="Safe Bet AI — início">
+        <span class="brand-mark" aria-hidden="true">
+          <svg viewBox="0 0 28 32" role="img">
+            <path d="M14 1.7 26 6.5v8.7c0 7.2-4.8 12.8-12 15.1C6.8 28 2 22.4 2 15.2V6.5L14 1.7Z" fill="currentColor" opacity=".2"/>
+            <path d="m8.3 16 3.6 3.6 7.9-8" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2.5" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round"/>
+          </svg>
+        </span>
+        <span class="brand-copy">
+          <strong>SAFE BET <em>AI</em></strong>
+          <small>Football intelligence</small>
+        </span>
+      </a>
+
+      <nav class="main-nav" aria-label="Navegação principal">
+        <a href="#overview">Visão geral</a>
+        <a href="#selections">Seleções</a>
+        <a href="#bet-builder">Bilhetes</a>
+        <a href="#system">Sistema</a>
+      </nav>
+
+      <div class="topbar-actions">
+        <div id="system-pill" class="pill neutral" role="status" aria-live="polite">
+          <span class="status-dot" aria-hidden="true"></span>
+          <span>CARREGANDO</span>
+        </div>
+        <button id="refresh-ui" class="icon-button" type="button" aria-label="Atualizar painel" title="Atualizar painel">
+          <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true">
+            <path d="M20 11a8.1 8.1 0 0 0-14.9-4M4 4v5h5M4 13a8.1 8.1 0 0 0 14.9 4M20 20v-5h-5"/>
+          </svg>
+        </button>
+      </div>
     </div>
-    <div id="system-pill" class="pill neutral">CARREGANDO</div>
   </header>
 
-  <main class="container">
-    <section class="hero panel">
-      <div>
-        <span class="eyebrow">PAINEL PROFISSIONAL</span>
-        <h1>Precisão primeiro. Palpite só quando passa.</h1>
-        <p>Dixon-Coles, Elo, forma ponderada, consenso de odds sem margem, calibração forward e Risk Gate. SAFE é menor risco relativo — nunca garantia.</p>
+  <main id="main-content" class="container">
+    <section id="overview" class="hero panel" aria-labelledby="hero-title">
+      <div class="hero-copy">
+        <div id="engine-label" class="live-label"><span aria-hidden="true"></span><b>MOTOR DE PRECISÃO CARREGANDO</b></div>
+        <h1 id="hero-title">Decisões melhores começam com <span>risco calculado.</span></h1>
+        <p>Probabilidade, valor de mercado e confiabilidade reunidos em uma leitura objetiva. O motor só libera uma seleção quando ela atravessa todo o Risk Gate.</p>
+        <div class="hero-actions">
+          <a class="btn primary" href="#selections">
+            Ver seleções do dia
+            <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="m9 18 6-6-6-6"/></svg>
+          </a>
+          <button class="btn secondary" type="button" data-scroll-target="system">Como funciona</button>
+        </div>
+        <div class="hero-footnote">
+          <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 3 4 6v5.7c0 4.7 3.2 8.3 8 9.8 4.8-1.5 8-5.1 8-9.8V6l-8-3Z"/><path d="m8.8 12 2.1 2.1 4.5-4.6"/></svg>
+          SAFE representa menor risco relativo, nunca garantia de retorno.
+        </div>
       </div>
-      <button id="refresh-ui" class="btn">Atualizar painel</button>
+
+      <aside class="hero-console" aria-label="Etapas do motor de análise">
+        <div class="console-head">
+          <span>Análise multicamada</span>
+          <span id="engine-state" class="console-state"><i aria-hidden="true"></i><b>CARREGANDO</b></span>
+        </div>
+        <ol id="engine-flow" class="engine-flow">
+          <li class="complete">
+            <span class="flow-number">01</span>
+            <div><strong>Dados &amp; forma</strong><small>Histórico ponderado por recência</small></div>
+            <span class="flow-check" aria-label="Concluído">✓</span>
+          </li>
+          <li class="complete">
+            <span class="flow-number">02</span>
+            <div><strong>Consenso de mercado</strong><small>Odds agregadas sem margem</small></div>
+            <span class="flow-check" aria-label="Concluído">✓</span>
+          </li>
+          <li class="complete">
+            <span class="flow-number">03</span>
+            <div><strong>Modelos probabilísticos</strong><small>Dixon-Coles, Elo e calibração</small></div>
+            <span class="flow-check" aria-label="Concluído">✓</span>
+          </li>
+          <li class="active">
+            <span class="flow-number">04</span>
+            <div><strong>Risk Gate</strong><small>Filtro final de confiabilidade</small></div>
+            <span class="flow-pulse" aria-hidden="true"></span>
+          </li>
+        </ol>
+        <div class="console-footer"><span>MODELO</span><strong>{{ model_version }}</strong></div>
+      </aside>
     </section>
 
-    <section id="warnings"></section>
+    <section id="warnings" class="warnings" aria-live="polite" aria-label="Avisos do sistema"></section>
 
-    <section class="stats-grid">
-      <div class="stat panel"><span>EVENTOS</span><strong id="s-events">—</strong><small>analisados</small></div>
-      <div class="stat panel"><span>SAFE</span><strong id="s-approved">—</strong><small>aprovados</small></div>
-      <div class="stat panel"><span>MELHOR SCORE</span><strong id="s-best">—</strong><small>/100</small></div>
-      <div class="stat panel"><span>WIN RATE</span><strong id="s-winrate">—</strong><small>forward tracking</small></div>
+    <section class="stats-grid" aria-label="Resumo da análise">
+      <article class="stat panel">
+        <div class="stat-icon blue" aria-hidden="true"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M4 19V9m5 10V5m6 14v-7m5 7V3"/></svg></div>
+        <div class="stat-copy"><span>EVENTOS ANALISADOS</span><strong id="s-events">—</strong><small>na leitura mais recente</small></div>
+      </article>
+      <article class="stat panel featured">
+        <div class="stat-icon green" aria-hidden="true"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M12 3 4 6v5.7c0 4.7 3.2 8.3 8 9.8 4.8-1.5 8-5.1 8-9.8V6l-8-3Z"/><path d="m8.8 12 2.1 2.1 4.5-4.6"/></svg></div>
+        <div class="stat-copy"><span>SELEÇÕES SAFE</span><strong id="s-approved">—</strong><small>aprovadas pelo Risk Gate</small></div>
+      </article>
+      <article class="stat panel">
+        <div class="stat-icon violet" aria-hidden="true"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="M12 3v18M3 12h18"/><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="8"/></svg></div>
+        <div class="stat-copy"><span>MELHOR SCORE</span><strong id="s-best">—</strong><small>pontos de confiança / 100</small></div>
+      </article>
+      <article class="stat panel">
+        <div class="stat-icon amber" aria-hidden="true"><svg viewBox="0 0 24 24"><path d="m4 16 5-5 4 3 7-8"/><path d="M15 6h5v5"/></svg></div>
+        <div class="stat-copy"><span>WIN RATE FORWARD</span><strong id="s-winrate">—</strong><small>somente palpites liquidados</small></div>
+      </article>
     </section>
 
-    <section class="section-head">
-      <div><span class="eyebrow">TOP SAFE DO DIA</span><h2>Seleções aprovadas</h2></div>
-      <div id="last-update" class="muted">—</div>
+    <section id="selections" class="content-section" aria-labelledby="picks-title">
+      <div class="section-head">
+        <div>
+          <span class="eyebrow"><i aria-hidden="true"></i> TOP SAFE DO DIA</span>
+          <h2 id="picks-title">Seleções aprovadas</h2>
+          <p>Oportunidades que passaram pelos critérios de probabilidade, preço e qualidade.</p>
+        </div>
+        <div id="last-update" class="update-time">—</div>
+      </div>
+      <div id="picks" class="picks" aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true">
+        <div class="panel empty loading-state"><span class="loader" aria-hidden="true"></span>Carregando seleções...</div>
+      </div>
     </section>
-    <section id="picks" class="picks"></section>
 
-    <section class="section-head">
-      <div><span class="eyebrow">OTIMIZADOR</span><h2>Bilhetes automáticos</h2></div>
+    <section id="bet-builder" class="content-section" aria-labelledby="tickets-title">
+      <div class="section-head">
+        <div>
+          <span class="eyebrow"><i aria-hidden="true"></i> BET BUILDER</span>
+          <h2 id="tickets-title">Bilhetes inteligentes</h2>
+          <p>Combinações automáticas com diferentes perfis de exposição e meta de odd.</p>
+        </div>
+        <div class="section-badge">3 PERFIS DE RISCO</div>
+      </div>
+      <div id="tickets" class="ticket-grid" aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true">
+        <div class="ticket panel skeleton"></div>
+        <div class="ticket panel skeleton"></div>
+        <div class="ticket panel skeleton"></div>
+      </div>
     </section>
-    <section id="tickets" class="ticket-grid"></section>
 
-    <section class="section-head">
-      <div><span class="eyebrow">SISTEMA</span><h2>Saúde e metodologia</h2></div>
+    <section id="system" class="content-section" aria-labelledby="system-title">
+      <div class="section-head">
+        <div>
+          <span class="eyebrow"><i aria-hidden="true"></i> INTELIGÊNCIA DO SISTEMA</span>
+          <h2 id="system-title">Saúde e metodologia</h2>
+          <p>Transparência operacional e métricas de validação do modelo.</p>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+      <div class="system-layout">
+        <section class="panel health-panel" aria-label="Indicadores de saúde">
+          <div class="panel-heading">
+            <div><span class="panel-kicker">STATUS</span><h3>Infraestrutura &amp; performance</h3></div>
+            <span class="secure-label"><i aria-hidden="true"></i> MONITORADO</span>
+          </div>
+          <div class="health" id="health" aria-live="polite" aria-busy="true">
+            <div class="health-card skeleton"></div>
+            <div class="health-card skeleton"></div>
+            <div class="health-card skeleton"></div>
+          </div>
+        </section>
+
+        <aside class="panel methodology" aria-label="Metodologia de análise">
+          <span class="panel-kicker">NOSSO PROCESSO</span>
+          <h3>Disciplina antes da aposta.</h3>
+          <p>Cada oportunidade é comparada ao mercado e estressada antes de aparecer no painel.</p>
+          <ul>
+            <li><span>01</span><div><strong>Probabilidade calibrada</strong><small>Modelos independentes combinados por desempenho.</small></div></li>
+            <li><span>02</span><div><strong>Preço justo</strong><small>Margem das casas removida do consenso.</small></div></li>
+            <li><span>03</span><div><strong>Controle de exposição</strong><small>Qualidade e incerteza limitam a confiança.</small></div></li>
+          </ul>
+          <div class="methodology-note">
+            <svg viewBox="0 0 24 24" aria-hidden="true"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="9"/><path d="M12 11v5m0-8h.01"/></svg>
+            Use as análises como apoio. Gestão de banca continua essencial.
+          </div>
+        </aside>
+      </div>
     </section>
-    <section class="panel health" id="health"></section>
 
     <footer>
-      Safe Bet AI • análise estatística, não recomendação garantida • controle sua banca e nunca aposte dinheiro necessário.
+      <div class="footer-brand"><span class="brand-mark small" aria-hidden="true">✓</span><strong>SAFE BET AI</strong></div>
+      <p>Análise estatística, não recomendação garantida. Aposte com responsabilidade e nunca use dinheiro necessário.</p>
+      <span>18+ &nbsp;•&nbsp; Jogue com responsabilidade</span>
     </footer>
   </main>
+
+  <div id="toast" class="toast" role="status" aria-live="polite" aria-atomic="true"></div>
   <script src="/static/app.js"></script>
 </body>
 </html>

deploy_to_hf.py

@@ -22,7 +22,15 @@ api.upload_folder(
     folder_path=str(Path(__file__).resolve().parent),
     repo_id=repo,
     repo_type="space",
-    ignore_patterns=[".git/*", ".env", "__pycache__/*", ".pytest_cache/*", "data/*.json"],
+    ignore_patterns=[
+        ".git/**",
+        ".env",
+        "**/__pycache__/**",
+        "**/*.py[cod]",
+        "**/.pytest_cache/**",
+        ".venv/**",
+        "data/**",
+    ],
     commit_message="Deploy Safe Bet AI",
 )
 print(f"OK: arquivos enviados para https://huggingface.co/spaces/{repo}")

tests/test_core.py

@@ -215,20 +215,21 @@ def test_append_history_does_not_duplicate_same_event_with_new_side():
 
 
 def test_settlement_respects_competition_and_pair():
+    finished_at = NOW - timedelta(hours=3)
     matches = [
         FinishedMatch(
-            match_id="1", competition="PL", utc_date=NOW,
+            match_id="1", competition="PL", utc_date=finished_at,
             home="Alpha FC", away="Beta FC", home_goals=2, away_goals=0,
             home_aliases=("Alpha",), away_aliases=("Beta",),
         ),
         FinishedMatch(
-            match_id="2", competition="SA", utc_date=NOW,
+            match_id="2", competition="SA", utc_date=finished_at,
             home="Alpha FC", away="Beta FC", home_goals=0, away_goals=2,
             home_aliases=("Alpha",), away_aliases=("Beta",),
         ),
     ]
     history = [{
-        "event_id": "e", "kickoff": NOW.isoformat(), "competition_code": "PL",
+        "event_id": "e", "kickoff": finished_at.isoformat(), "competition_code": "PL",
         "home": "Alpha", "away": "Beta", "side": "home", "odd": 1.5,
         "probability": .7, "result": None,
     }]
@@ -267,6 +268,25 @@ def test_ticket_optimizer_respects_max_legs_and_stresses_dependency():
     assert isinstance(ticket["target_met"], bool)
 
 
+def test_ticket_target_requires_reaching_the_full_advertised_odd():
+    picks = [
+        {
+            "event_id": "1", "home": "A", "away": "B", "selection": "A",
+            "odd": 1.4, "probability": .72, "conservative_probability": .63,
+            "safe_score": 85, "competition_code": "PL", "kickoff": NOW.isoformat(),
+        },
+        {
+            "event_id": "2", "home": "C", "away": "D", "selection": "C",
+            "odd": 1.75, "probability": .72, "conservative_probability": .63,
+            "safe_score": 85, "competition_code": "SA", "kickoff": NOW.isoformat(),
+        },
+    ]
+    ticket = optimize_ticket(picks, target_odd=2.5, max_legs=2)
+    assert ticket is not None
+    assert ticket["total_odd"] == 2.45
+    assert ticket["target_met"] is False
+
+
 def _strong_favorite_fixture():
     matches = []
     ids = {"Alpha FC": "1", "Beta FC": "2", "Gamma FC": "3", "Delta FC": "4"}
@@ -313,6 +333,7 @@ def test_analyzer_market_prior_reduces_extreme_internal_probability():
     posterior = pick.probability
     assert min(internal, market) <= posterior <= max(internal, market)
     assert pick.conservative_probability <= pick.probability
+    assert pick.model_ev >= 0
 
 
 def test_analyzer_rejects_single_bookmaker_for_safe_mode():
@@ -334,6 +355,30 @@ def test_analyzer_rejects_single_bookmaker_for_safe_mode():
     assert any("poucas casas" in row["reason"] for row in rejected)
 
 
+def test_analyzer_does_not_republish_open_event_from_previous_version():
+    from app.core.analyzer import analyze_events
+
+    matches, event = _strong_favorite_fixture()
+    picks, rejected = analyze_events(
+        [event],
+        matches,
+        min_safe_score=70,
+        limit=10,
+        previous_picks=[{
+            "event_id": "evt1",
+            "model_version": "2.1-precision",
+            "side": "home",
+            "market_probability": 0.65,
+        }],
+        min_probability=.60,
+        min_conservative_probability=.53,
+        min_bookmakers=3,
+        min_name_score=82,
+    )
+    assert picks == []
+    assert any("versão anterior" in row["reason"] for row in rejected)
+
+
 def test_stale_bookmakers_are_removed_from_consensus():
     event = make_event()
     for bookmaker in event["bookmakers"]:
@@ -433,6 +478,8 @@ def test_walk_forward_reports_time_safe_brier_skill():
 
     result = tune_ensemble_weights(sample_matches("PL", 180), "PL", evaluation_matches=40)
     assert result["samples"] >= 18
+    assert result["validation_samples"] >= 6
+    assert result["validation_samples"] < result["samples"]
     assert result["climatology_brier"] > 0
     assert result["brier"] > 0
     assert -2.0 < result["brier_skill"] < 1.0

tests/test_pipeline.py

@@ -0,0 +1,207 @@
+import asyncio
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+from types import SimpleNamespace
+
+import app.pipeline as pipeline_module
+from app.models import FinishedMatch
+from app.pipeline import DailyPipeline
+from app.storage import StateStore
+
+
+def _settings(**overrides):
+    values = {
+        "football_data_token": "football-token",
+        "odds_api_key": "odds-key",
+        "odds_regions": "eu",
+        "sport_keys": ("soccer_epl",),
+        "history_days": 240,
+        "scan_horizon_hours": 36,
+        "min_safe_score": 76.0,
+        "top_picks_limit": 10,
+        "min_probability": 0.64,
+        "min_conservative_probability": 0.57,
+        "min_bookmakers": 3,
+        "min_name_score": 82.0,
+    }
+    values.update(overrides)
+    return SimpleNamespace(**values)
+
+
+def _matches(count=45):
+    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+    return [
+        FinishedMatch(
+            match_id=str(index),
+            competition="PL",
+            utc_date=now - timedelta(days=index + 1),
+            home="Alpha FC",
+            away="Beta FC",
+            home_goals=1,
+            away_goals=0,
+            home_id="1",
+            away_id="2",
+        )
+        for index in range(count)
+    ]
+
+
+class RecordingStore(StateStore):
+    def __init__(self, data_dir):
+        super().__init__(data_dir)
+        self.saved_statuses = []
+        self.backups = 0
+
+    def save_state(self, state):
+        self.saved_statuses.append(state.get("status"))
+        super().save_state(state)
+
+    def backup_to_hub(self):
+        self.backups += 1
+
+
+def test_pipeline_happy_path_persists_complete_state_and_closes_http(monkeypatch, tmp_path):
+    closed = []
+
+    class FakeHTTP:
+        def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
+            pass
+
+        async def aclose(self):
+            closed.append(True)
+
+    class FakeFootball:
+        def __init__(self, token, http):
+            assert token == "football-token"
+
+        async def fetch_finished(self, history_days, sport_keys, cached):
+            assert history_days == 240
+            assert sport_keys == ("soccer_epl",)
+            assert cached == []
+            return _matches(), {
+                "errors": [],
+                "competitions": {"PL": {"matches": 45}},
+            }
+
+    class FakeOdds:
+        def __init__(self, api_key, http, regions):
+            assert api_key == "odds-key"
+            assert regions == "eu"
+            self.region_count = 1
+            self.quota = {"remaining": 499, "used": 1, "last": 1}
+            self.inactive_keys = []
+            self.queried_keys = ["soccer_epl"]
+            self.errors = []
+
+        async def fetch_events(self, sport_keys, horizon_hours):
+            assert sport_keys == ("soccer_epl",)
+            assert horizon_hours == 36
+            return []
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pipeline_module, "ResilientHTTP", FakeHTTP)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pipeline_module, "FootballDataProvider", FakeFootball)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pipeline_module, "OddsAPIProvider", FakeOdds)
+
+    store = RecordingStore(tmp_path)
+    pipeline = DailyPipeline(_settings(), store)
+    state = asyncio.run(pipeline.scan())
+
+    assert store.saved_statuses == ["scanning", "ok"]
+    assert state["status"] == "ok"
+    assert state["summary"] == {
+        "events": 0,
+        "historical_matches": 45,
+        "approved": 0,
+        "rejected": 0,
+    }
+    assert state["providers"]["football_data"]["ok"] is True
+    assert state["providers"]["odds_api"]["ok"] is True
+    assert state["providers"]["odds_api"]["estimated_cost_per_league"] == 1
+    assert store.load_state()["generated_at"] == state["generated_at"]
+    assert len(store.load_matches()) == 45
+    assert store.load_history() == []
+    assert store.backups == 1
+    assert closed == [True]
+
+
+def test_pipeline_provider_failure_preserves_previous_picks(monkeypatch, tmp_path):
+    closed = []
+
+    class FakeHTTP:
+        def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
+            pass
+
+        async def aclose(self):
+            closed.append(True)
+
+    class FailingFootball:
+        def __init__(self, token, http):
+            pass
+
+        async def fetch_finished(self, *args, **kwargs):
+            raise RuntimeError("football provider unavailable")
+
+    class UnusedOdds:
+        def __init__(self, *args, **kwargs):
+            pass
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pipeline_module, "ResilientHTTP", FakeHTTP)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pipeline_module, "FootballDataProvider", FailingFootball)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(pipeline_module, "OddsAPIProvider", UnusedOdds)
+
+    store = RecordingStore(tmp_path)
+    previous = store.load_state()
+    previous.update({
+        "status": "ok",
+        "generated_at": "2026-08-14T10:00:00+00:00",
+        "picks": [{"event_id": "keep-me"}],
+    })
+    store.save_state(previous)
+    store.saved_statuses.clear()
+
+    pipeline = DailyPipeline(_settings(), store)
+    state = asyncio.run(pipeline.scan())
+
+    assert store.saved_statuses == ["scanning", "error"]
+    assert state["status"] == "error"
+    assert state["picks"] == [{"event_id": "keep-me"}]
+    assert "football provider unavailable" in state["last_error"]
+    assert store.load_state()["picks"] == [{"event_id": "keep-me"}]
+    assert store.backups == 0
+    assert closed == [True]
+
+
+def test_pipeline_concurrent_waiters_share_one_background_scan():
+    pipeline = DailyPipeline(_settings(), store=None)
+
+    async def scenario():
+        started = asyncio.Event()
+        release = asyncio.Event()
+        calls = 0
+
+        async def slow_scan():
+            nonlocal calls
+            calls += 1
+            started.set()
+            await release.wait()
+            return {"status": "ok", "call": calls}
+
+        pipeline.scan = slow_scan
+        assert pipeline.trigger_background() is True
+        await started.wait()
+        assert pipeline.running is True
+        assert pipeline.trigger_background() is False
+
+        first = asyncio.create_task(pipeline.trigger_and_wait())
+        second = asyncio.create_task(pipeline.trigger_and_wait())
+        await asyncio.sleep(0)
+        release.set()
+        results = await asyncio.gather(first, second)
+
+        assert calls == 1
+        assert results == [
+            {"status": "ok", "call": 1},
+            {"status": "ok", "call": 1},
+        ]
+        assert pipeline.running is False
+
+    asyncio.run(scenario())

tests/test_robustness.py

@@ -0,0 +1,217 @@
+import asyncio
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+import math
+from types import SimpleNamespace
+
+import httpx
+import pytest
+
+from app.config import MODEL_VERSION, Settings
+from app.core.calibration import calibrate_probability
+from app.core.history import performance_metrics, settle_history
+from app.core.market import market_consensus
+from app.models import FinishedMatch
+from app.pipeline import DailyPipeline
+from app.providers.http_client import ProviderError, ResilientHTTP
+from app.providers.odds_api import OddsAPIProvider
+from app.storage import StateStore
+
+
+def test_state_store_rejects_non_finite_json(tmp_path):
+    store = StateStore(tmp_path)
+    with pytest.raises(ValueError):
+        store.save_state({"probability": math.nan})
+    assert not store.state_path.exists()
+    assert list(tmp_path.iterdir()) == []
+
+
+def test_state_store_recovers_from_non_object_json(tmp_path):
+    store = StateStore(tmp_path)
+    store.state_path.write_text("[]", encoding="utf-8")
+    state = store.load_state()
+    assert state["status"] == "error"
+    assert state["picks"] == []
+
+
+def test_performance_ignores_invalid_probabilities():
+    history = [
+        {"result": "win", "probability": 0.70, "profit_units": 0.5},
+        {"result": "loss", "probability": float("nan"), "profit_units": -1.0},
+        {"result": "win", "probability": 1.5, "profit_units": 0.5},
+    ]
+    metrics = performance_metrics(history)
+    assert metrics["settled"] == 1
+    assert metrics["wins"] == 1
+
+
+def test_performance_treats_invalid_profit_as_zero():
+    history = [
+        {"result": "win", "probability": 0.70, "profit_units": "oops"},
+        {"result": "loss", "probability": 0.65, "profit_units": float("inf")},
+    ]
+    metrics = performance_metrics(history)
+    assert metrics["settled"] == 2
+    assert metrics["profit_units"] == 0.0
+    assert math.isfinite(metrics["max_drawdown_units"])
+
+
+def test_calibration_ignores_non_finite_probability_history():
+    history = [{
+        "result": "win",
+        "probability": float("nan"),
+        "model_version": MODEL_VERSION,
+        "competition_code": "PL",
+    }] * 30
+    probability, metadata = calibrate_probability(
+        0.70,
+        history,
+        model_version=MODEL_VERSION,
+        competition_code="PL",
+    )
+    assert probability == 0.70
+    assert metadata["effective_samples"] == 0.0
+
+
+def test_provider_error_detail_redacts_credentials():
+    secret = "private-api-key-value"
+    response = httpx.Response(401, text=f"invalid api key: {secret}")
+    detail = ResilientHTTP._safe_error_detail(
+        response,
+        {"apiKey": secret, "regions": "eu"},
+        {"X-Auth-Token": "another-private-token"},
+    )
+    assert secret not in detail
+    assert "[redacted]" in detail
+
+
+def test_market_consensus_ignores_malformed_nested_rows():
+    event = {
+        "home_team": "Alpha",
+        "away_team": "Beta",
+        "bookmakers": [None, "bad", {"markets": [None, {"key": "h2h", "outcomes": [None]}]}],
+    }
+    market = market_consensus(event)
+    assert market.bookmakers == 0
+
+
+def test_odds_provider_does_not_report_total_failure_as_empty_success():
+    class FailingHTTP:
+        async def get_json(self, *args, **kwargs):
+            raise ProviderError("provider unavailable", 503)
+
+    provider = OddsAPIProvider("test-key", FailingHTTP())
+    with pytest.raises(ProviderError, match="Todas as consultas"):
+        asyncio.run(provider.fetch_events(("soccer_epl",), 24))
+    assert provider.queried_keys == ["soccer_epl"]
+    assert len(provider.errors) == 1
+
+
+def test_pipeline_running_includes_direct_lock_holder():
+    pipeline = DailyPipeline(settings=None, store=None)
+
+    async def check():
+        await pipeline._lock.acquire()
+        try:
+            assert pipeline.running is True
+            assert pipeline.trigger_background() is False
+        finally:
+            pipeline._lock.release()
+
+    asyncio.run(check())
+
+
+def test_settings_fail_closed_on_invalid_regions_or_leagues(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setenv("ODDS_REGIONS", "eu,invalid")
+    monkeypatch.setenv("ODDS_SPORT_KEYS", "soccer_epl,soccer_typo")
+    configured = Settings()
+    assert configured.odds_regions == ""
+    assert configured.sport_keys == ()
+    assert configured.required_ready is False
+
+
+def test_unicode_cron_secret_is_compared_without_server_error(monkeypatch):
+    import app.main as main_module
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(main_module, "settings", SimpleNamespace(cron_secret="segredo-ç"))
+    assert main_module._authorized("segredo-ç") is True
+    assert main_module._authorized("segredo-c") is False
+
+
+def test_settlement_prefers_resolved_ids_and_records_audit_fields():
+    kickoff = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(hours=4)
+    history = [{
+        "event_id": "event-1",
+        "kickoff": kickoff.isoformat(),
+        "competition_code": "PL",
+        "home": "Nome divergente",
+        "away": "Outro nome",
+        "resolved_home_key": "id:10",
+        "resolved_away_key": "id:20",
+        "side": "home",
+        "odd": 1.8,
+        "probability": 0.7,
+        "result": None,
+    }]
+    matches = [FinishedMatch(
+        match_id="match-99",
+        competition="PL",
+        utc_date=kickoff,
+        home="Canonical Home",
+        away="Canonical Away",
+        home_goals=2,
+        away_goals=1,
+        home_id="10",
+        away_id="20",
+    )]
+    settle_history(history, matches)
+    assert history[0]["result"] == "win"
+    assert history[0]["settled_match_id"] == "match-99"
+
+
+def test_settlement_never_runs_before_match_can_finish():
+    kickoff = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(minutes=15)
+    history = [{
+        "event_id": "event-live",
+        "kickoff": kickoff.isoformat(),
+        "competition_code": "PL",
+        "home": "Alpha",
+        "away": "Beta",
+        "side": "home",
+        "odd": 1.5,
+        "probability": 0.7,
+        "result": None,
+    }]
+    matches = [FinishedMatch("m", "PL", kickoff, "Alpha", "Beta", 1, 0)]
+    settle_history(history, matches)
+    assert history[0]["result"] is None
+
+
+def test_api_security_headers_allow_hugging_face_embedding():
+    from fastapi.testclient import TestClient
+    from app.main import app
+
+    with TestClient(app) as client:
+        page = client.get("/")
+        api = client.get("/api/health")
+
+    csp = page.headers["content-security-policy"]
+    assert "frame-ancestors https://huggingface.co https://*.huggingface.co" in csp
+    assert "x-frame-options" not in page.headers
+    assert api.headers["cache-control"] == "no-store"
+    assert api.json()["version"] == MODEL_VERSION
+
+
+def test_admin_scan_blocks_recent_duplicate_by_default(monkeypatch):
+    from fastapi.testclient import TestClient
+    import app.main as main_module
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(main_module, "_authorized", lambda _secret: True)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(main_module.pipeline, "recent_success", lambda _minutes: True)
+    with TestClient(main_module.app) as client:
+        response = client.post(
+            "/api/admin/scan?wait=1",
+            headers={"X-Cron-Secret": "test"},
+        )
+    assert response.status_code == 200
+    assert response.json()["accepted"] is False
+    assert "scan recente" in response.json()["message"]