[
 {"scene":"intro","sp":"host","text":"嗨，大家好，我是子木土土！"},
 {"scene":"intro","sp":"host","text":"今天先问你一个问题：为什么有些东西，价格明明已经离谱到天上去了，还是有一大堆人抢着买？"},
 {"scene":"intro","sp":"host","text":"答案，就藏在经济学里一个特别有名的寓言里——收猴子的故事。"},
 {"scene":"village","sp":"host","text":"从前，有一座大山，山脚下有个小村子。山上的林子里，住着成千上万只猴子。"},
 {"scene":"village","sp":"host","text":"这些猴子偷玉米、摘果子，村民们烦得不行。可谁也没想过，猴子还能值钱。"},
 {"scene":"merchant","sp":"host","text":"直到有一天，村口来了一位穿西装、提皮箱的商人。"},
 {"scene":"merchant","sp":"merchant","text":"各位乡亲！我高价收猴子，一只十块钱，现钱结算！"},
 {"scene":"merchant","sp":"villager","text":"啥？猴子还能卖钱？"},
 {"scene":"merchant","sp":"host","text":"有人半信半疑地抓来一只，商人真的当场掏出了十块钱。"},
 {"scene":"round1","sp":"host","text":"消息一下子传遍了全村。大家扛着网、提着笼子，一窝蜂地冲上了山。"},
 {"scene":"round1","sp":"host","text":"商人照单全收，一只十块，村口的笼子越堆越高。"},
 {"scene":"raise","sp":"host","text":"可是猴子越抓越少，村民们慢慢也就不太上心了。"},
 {"scene":"raise","sp":"merchant","text":"涨价啦！现在一只二十块！"},
 {"scene":"raise","sp":"host","text":"村民们眼睛都亮了，地也不种了，全家老小一起上山抓猴子。"},
 {"scene":"raise","sp":"host","text":"很快，二十块也抓不到几只了。商人再次加价：二十五块！"},
 {"scene":"raise","sp":"host","text":"可这时的林子里，已经几乎看不到猴子的影子了。"},
 {"scene":"peak","sp":"host","text":"就在这时，商人放出了一个重磅消息。"},
 {"scene":"peak","sp":"merchant","text":"下一次，我出五十块一只！不过我得先进城办点事，这几天，生意交给我的助手。"},
 {"scene":"assistant","sp":"host","text":"商人前脚刚走，助手就把村民们叫到笼子跟前，压低了声音。"},
 {"scene":"assistant","sp":"assistant","text":"这一笼子猴子，我按三十五块一只卖给你们。等老板回来，你们五十块卖给他，一只净赚十五块！"},
 {"scene":"frenzy","sp":"host","text":"这笔账，谁都算得明白。村民们掏出全部积蓄，有人卖了牛，有人四处借钱。"},
 {"scene":"frenzy","sp":"host","text":"笼子里的猴子，一只不剩，全被抢购一空。"},
 {"scene":"empty","sp":"host","text":"第二天，村民们早早守在村口，等着商人回来。"},
 {"scene":"empty","sp":"host","text":"可是，他们再也没有见过那个商人，也再没见过那个助手。"},
 {"scene":"empty","sp":"host","text":"村子里，只剩下满山遍野的猴子，和一屋子的欠条。"},
 {"scene":"recap","sp":"host","text":"我们来算一笔账。商人花十块到二十五块，把猴子收进笼子；"},
 {"scene":"recap","sp":"host","text":"再让助手用三十五块，把同一批猴子卖回给村民。"},
 {"scene":"recap","sp":"host","text":"一进一出，猴子还是那些猴子，钱，却从村民的口袋，流进了商人的皮箱。"},
 {"scene":"theory","sp":"host","text":"这个故事里，藏着四个重要的经济学概念。"},
 {"scene":"theory","sp":"host","text":"第一，投机泡沫。猴子本身没什么用，价格上涨不是因为它更有价值，而是因为有人在喊价。"},
 {"scene":"theory","sp":"host","text":"第二，博傻理论。村民买猴子不是想要猴子，而是相信会有一个更傻的人，用更高的价格来接盘。"},
 {"scene":"theory","sp":"host","text":"第三，信息不对称。到底谁是最后一个接盘的人？只有商人自己心里清楚。"},
 {"scene":"theory","sp":"host","text":"第四，庄家控盘。价格是商人一手拉起来的，他既是买家又是卖家，涨跌全由他说了算。"},
 {"scene":"reality","sp":"host","text":"历史上，这样的剧本反复上演。十七世纪的荷兰，一颗郁金香球茎，能换一栋房子。"},
 {"scene":"reality","sp":"host","text":"后来，还有各种被热炒的概念、藏品和代币。主角不同，套路却惊人地相似。"},
 {"scene":"reality","sp":"host","text":"所以，当你看到一样东西涨得飞快，先别急着上车，问自己三个问题："},
 {"scene":"reality","sp":"host","text":"它本身值多少钱？是谁在推高价格？如果没人接盘，我能承受这个损失吗？"},
 {"scene":"outro","sp":"host","text":"记住：在别人疯狂的时候，先找找那个收猴子的人。"},
 {"scene":"outro","sp":"host","text":"如果你找不到他，那么接盘的那个人，可能就是你自己。"},
 {"scene":"outro","sp":"host","text":"我是子木土土，觉得有收获的话，点赞关注，我们下期见！"}
]