import gradio as gr import pandas as pd import yfinance as yf import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import plotly.express as px import plotly.graph_objects as go import seaborn as sns from scipy import stats, optimize import warnings from io import BytesIO import base64 from datetime import datetime warnings.filterwarnings("ignore") # Default parameters from the notebook default_tickers = ['BBAS3.SA', 'ITSA4.SA', 'TAEE11.SA', 'TTEN3.SA', 'BPAC11.SA', '^BVSP'] default_start_date = '2012-01-01' default_end_date = '2024-07-31' num_ports = 50000 initial_investment = 35000 # Fetch data def fetch_data(tickers, start_date, end_date): acoes_df = pd.DataFrame() for acao in tickers: try: acoes_df[acao] = yf.download(acao, start=start_date, end=end_date, progress=False)['Close'] except Exception as e: print(f"Error downloading {acao}: {e}") acoes_df.index = acoes_df.index.strftime('%Y-%m-%d') acoes_df.reset_index(inplace=True) acoes_df.rename(columns={'index': 'Date'}, inplace=True) return acoes_df # Historical Prices Plot def plot_historical_prices(acoes_df): acoes_viz = acoes_df.copy() figura = px.line(title='Histórico do Preço das Ações') for i in acoes_viz.columns[1:]: figura.add_scatter(x=acoes_viz["Date"], y=acoes_viz[i], name=i) figura.update_layout(xaxis_title="Data", yaxis_title="Preço (R$)", hovermode='x unified') return figura # Returns Calculation and Plot def calculate_and_plot_returns(acoes_df): dataset = acoes_df.copy() dataset.drop(labels=['Date'], axis=1, inplace=True) taxas_retorno = np.log(dataset / dataset.shift(1)) date = acoes_df.filter(["Date"]) taxas_retorno = pd.concat([date, taxas_retorno], axis=1) taxas_retorno = taxas_retorno.dropna() figura = px.line(title='Histórico de Retorno das Ações') for i in taxas_retorno.columns[1:]: figura.add_scatter(x=taxas_retorno["Date"], y=taxas_retorno[i], name=i) figura.update_layout(xaxis_title="Data", yaxis_title="Retorno Logarítmico", hovermode='x unified') stats = taxas_retorno.describe().to_html() return figura, stats # Correlation Matrix def plot_correlation_matrix(taxas_retorno): correlacao_cols = taxas_retorno.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns correlacao = taxas_retorno[correlacao_cols].corr() correlacao = np.round(correlacao, 2) custom_colorscale = [[0.0, 'green'], [0.5, 'blue'], [1.0, 'red']] fig = px.imshow(correlacao, text_auto=True, aspect="auto", color_continuous_scale=custom_colorscale, labels=dict(color="Correlações"), zmin=-1, zmax=1, title="Matriz de Correlação dos Retornos") return fig # Efficient Frontier def simulate_efficient_frontier(acoes_df, num_ports): acoes_port = acoes_df.copy() acoes_port.drop(labels=['^BVSP'], axis=1, inplace=True) log_ret = acoes_port.copy() log_ret.drop(labels=["Date"], axis=1, inplace=True) log_ret = np.log(log_ret / log_ret.shift(1)) log_ret = log_ret.dropna() np.random.seed(42) all_weights = np.zeros((num_ports, len(acoes_port.columns[1:]))) ret_arr = np.zeros(num_ports) vol_arr = np.zeros(num_ports) sharpe_arr = np.zeros(num_ports) for x in range(num_ports): weights = np.array(np.random.random(5)) weights = weights / np.sum(weights) all_weights[x, :] = weights ret_arr[x] = np.sum((log_ret.mean() * weights)) vol_arr[x] = np.sqrt(np.dot(weights.T, np.dot(log_ret.cov(), weights))) sharpe_arr[x] = ret_arr[x] / vol_arr[x] melhores_pesos = all_weights[sharpe_arr.argmax(), :] max_sr_vol = vol_arr[sharpe_arr.argmax()] max_sr_ret = ret_arr[sharpe_arr.argmax()] fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8)) ax.scatter(vol_arr, ret_arr, c=sharpe_arr, cmap='viridis') ax.scatter(max_sr_vol, max_sr_ret, c='red', s=200, marker='*', label='Carteira Ótima') ax.set_xlabel('Volatilidade') ax.set_ylabel('Retorno') ax.set_title('Fronteira Eficiente - Simulação Monte Carlo') ax.legend() ax.grid(True, alpha=0.3) buf = BytesIO() fig.savefig(buf, format="png") buf.seek(0) img_base64 = base64.b64encode(buf.read()).decode('utf-8') plt.close(fig) return f'', melhores_pesos # Portfolio Simulation def simulate_portfolio(acoes_df, initial_investment, melhores_pesos): dados_sim = acoes_df.copy() if '^BVSP' in dados_sim.columns: dados_sim = dados_sim.drop(columns=['^BVSP']) datas = dados_sim['Date'].copy() precos = dados_sim.drop(columns=['Date']).copy() for col in precos.columns: precos[col] = pd.to_numeric(precos[col], errors='coerce') precos = precos.dropna() datas = datas.iloc[:len(precos)].reset_index(drop=True) precos = precos.reset_index(drop=True) precos_norm = precos.copy() for col in precos_norm.columns: precos_norm[col] = precos_norm[col] / precos_norm[col].iloc[0] portfolio_valores = pd.DataFrame() portfolio_valores['Data'] = datas nomes_ativos = ['BBAS3.SA', 'ITSA4.SA', 'TAEE11.SA', 'TTEN3.SA', 'BPAC11.SA'] for i, ativo in enumerate(nomes_ativos): if ativo in precos_norm.columns: portfolio_valores[ativo] = precos_norm[ativo] * melhores_pesos[i] * initial_investment colunas_ativos = [col for col in portfolio_valores.columns if col != 'Data'] portfolio_valores['Valor_Total'] = portfolio_valores[colunas_ativos].sum(axis=1) portfolio_valores['Retorno_Diario'] = 0.0 for i in range(1, len(portfolio_valores)): valor_hoje = portfolio_valores['Valor_Total'].iloc[i] valor_ontem = portfolio_valores['Valor_Total'].iloc[i-1] if valor_ontem > 0: portfolio_valores['Retorno_Diario'].iloc[i] = np.log(valor_hoje / valor_ontem) * 100 # Portfolio Evolution Plot fig_evo = px.line(x=portfolio_valores['Data'], y=portfolio_valores['Valor_Total'], title='Evolução do Patrimônio da Carteira', labels={'x': 'Data', 'y': 'Valor (R$)'}) fig_evo.add_hline(y=portfolio_valores['Valor_Total'].mean(), line_color="green", line_dash="dot", annotation_text="Valor Médio") fig_evo.add_hline(y=initial_investment, line_color="red", line_dash="dot", annotation_text=f"Investimento Inicial (R$ {initial_investment:,.0f})") # Daily Returns Plot fig_ret = px.line(x=portfolio_valores['Data'], y=portfolio_valores['Retorno_Diario'], title='Retorno Diário do Portfólio', labels={'x': 'Data', 'y': 'Retorno (%)'}) media_retorno = portfolio_valores['Retorno_Diario'].mean() fig_ret.add_hline(y=media_retorno, line_color="red", line_dash="dot", annotation_text=f"Retorno Médio: {media_retorno:.3f}%") valor_final = portfolio_valores['Valor_Total'].iloc[-1] return fig_evo, fig_ret, portfolio_valores, valor_final # VaR Analysis def analyze_var(portfolio_resultado, valor_final): retornos_portfolio = portfolio_resultado['Retorno_Diario'].copy()[1:].dropna() def calcular_var_historico(retornos, confianca): percentil = (1 - confianca) * 100 return np.percentile(retornos, percentil) var_95_historico = calcular_var_historico(retornos_portfolio, 0.95) var_99_historico = calcular_var_historico(retornos_portfolio, 0.99) var_95_money = valor_final * (np.exp(var_95_historico/100) - 1) var_99_money = valor_final * (np.exp(var_99_historico/100) - 1) def var_monte_carlo(retornos, num_simulacoes=10000, confianca=0.95): np.random.seed(42) media = retornos.mean() desvio = retornos.std() simulacoes = np.random.normal(media, desvio, num_simulacoes) percentil = (1 - confianca) * 100 var_mc = np.percentile(simulacoes, percentil) return var_mc, simulacoes var_mc_95, simulacoes_95 = var_monte_carlo(retornos_portfolio, confianca=0.95) var_mc_99, simulacoes_99 = var_monte_carlo(retornos_portfolio, confianca=0.99) var_mc_95_money = valor_final * (np.exp(var_mc_95/100) - 1) var_mc_99_money = valor_final * (np.exp(var_mc_99/100) - 1) # VaR Plot fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(1, 2, figsize=(15, 6)) ax1.hist(retornos_portfolio, bins=50, alpha=0.7, color='skyblue', edgecolor='black', density=True) ax1.axvline(var_95_historico, color='orange', linestyle='--', label=f'VaR 95%: {var_95_historico:.2f}%') ax1.axvline(var_99_historico, color='red', linestyle='--', label=f'VaR 99%: {var_99_historico:.2f}%') ax1.set_xlabel('Retorno Diário (%)') ax1.set_ylabel('Densidade') ax1.set_title('Distribuição dos Retornos Históricos\ncom VaR Histórico') ax1.legend() ax1.grid(True, alpha=0.3) ax2.hist(simulacoes_95, bins=50, alpha=0.7, color='lightgreen', edgecolor='black', density=True) ax2.axvline(var_mc_95, color='orange', linestyle='--', label=f'VaR MC 95%: {var_mc_95:.2f}%') ax2.axvline(var_mc_99, color='red', linestyle='--', label=f'VaR MC 99%: {var_mc_99:.2f}%') ax2.set_xlabel('Retorno Diário (%)') ax2.set_ylabel('Densidade') ax2.set_title('Distribuição Simulada (Monte Carlo)\ncom VaR Paramétrico') ax2.legend() ax2.grid(True, alpha=0.3) plt.tight_layout() buf = BytesIO() fig.savefig(buf, format="png", dpi=300) buf.seek(0) img_base64 = base64.b64encode(buf.read()).decode('utf-8') plt.close(fig) # VaR Summary var_summary = f"""

Resumo do VaR

MétodoVaR 95% (1 dia)VaR 99% (1 dia)
Histórico{var_95_historico:.2f}% (R$ {abs(var_95_money):,.2f}){var_99_historico:.2f}% (R$ {abs(var_99_money):,.2f})
Monte Carlo{var_mc_95:.2f}% (R$ {abs(var_mc_95_money):,.2f}){var_mc_99:.2f}% (R$ {abs(var_mc_99_money):,.2f})
""" return f'', var_summary # Main Analysis Function def run_analysis(tickers_str, start_date, end_date, num_simulations, investment): try: tickers = [t.strip() for t in tickers_str.split(',')] start_date = datetime.strptime(start_date, '%Y-%m-%d').strftime('%Y-%m-%d') end_date = datetime.strptime(end_date, '%Y-%m-%d').strftime('%Y-%m-%d') acoes_df = fetch_data(tickers, start_date, end_date) if acoes_df.empty: return [f"Error: No data fetched for {tickers}"] * 8 prices_plot = plot_historical_prices(acoes_df) returns_plot, stats = calculate_and_plot_returns(acoes_df) corr_plot = plot_correlation_matrix(pd.concat([acoes_df['Date'], np.log(acoes_df.drop('Date', axis=1) / acoes_df.drop('Date', axis=1).shift(1))], axis=1).dropna()) frontier_img, melhores_pesos = simulate_efficient_frontier(acoes_df, int(num_simulations)) port_evo, port_ret, portfolio_resultado, valor_final = simulate_portfolio(acoes_df, investment, melhores_pesos) var_img, var_summary = analyze_var(portfolio_resultado, valor_final) return prices_plot, returns_plot, corr_plot, frontier_img, port_evo, port_ret, var_img, stats + var_summary except Exception as e: return [f"Error: {str(e)}"] * 8 # Gradio Interface with gr.Blocks(title="Portfolio Analysis Dashboard") as demo: gr.Markdown("# Portfolio Theory Visualization Dashboard") gr.Markdown("Dynamic visualizations for portfolio analysis. Customize inputs and explore.") with gr.Row(): tickers_input = gr.Textbox(label="Tickers (comma-separated)", value=','.join(default_tickers)) start_date = gr.Textbox(label="Start Date (YYYY-MM-DD)", value=default_start_date) end_date = gr.Textbox(label="End Date (YYYY-MM-DD)", value=default_end_date) num_sim = gr.Number(label="Number of Simulations", value=num_ports) investment = gr.Number(label="Initial Investment (R$)", value=initial_investment) run_btn = gr.Button("Run Analysis") with gr.Tab("Historical Prices"): prices_output = gr.Plot() with gr.Tab("Returns History"): returns_output = gr.Plot() with gr.Tab("Correlation Matrix"): corr_output = gr.Plot() with gr.Tab("Efficient Frontier"): frontier_output = gr.HTML() with gr.Tab("Portfolio Evolution"): port_evo_output = gr.Plot() with gr.Tab("Daily Returns"): port_ret_output = gr.Plot() with gr.Tab("VaR Analysis"): var_output = gr.HTML() with gr.Tab("Statistics"): stats_output = gr.HTML() run_btn.click( run_analysis, inputs=[tickers_input, start_date, end_date, num_sim, investment], outputs=[prices_output, returns_output, corr_output, frontier_output, port_evo_output, port_ret_output, var_output, stats_output] ) if __name__ == "__main__": demo.launch()