Add v2 model: ensemble_v2_summary.json

models_v2/ensemble_v2_summary.json

@@ -0,0 +1,352 @@
+{
+  "version": "v2_expanded",
+  "total_matches": 4068,
+  "trained_at": "2026-03-24T05:44:48.753537-03:00",
+  "feature_cols": [
+    "gold_delta",
+    "xp_delta",
+    "lh_delta",
+    "dn_delta",
+    "rad_gold",
+    "dire_gold",
+    "rad_xp",
+    "dire_xp",
+    "rad_gpm",
+    "dire_gpm",
+    "gpm_delta",
+    "rad_xpm",
+    "dire_xpm",
+    "xpm_delta",
+    "rad_gold_std",
+    "dire_gold_std",
+    "gold_std_delta",
+    "carry_gap",
+    "support_gap",
+    "rad_cs_eff",
+    "dire_cs_eff",
+    "cs_eff_delta",
+    "rad_dn",
+    "dire_dn",
+    "deny_delta",
+    "gold_log_ratio",
+    "xp_log_ratio",
+    "gold_lead_pct",
+    "gold_momentum",
+    "xp_momentum"
+  ],
+  "moments": {
+    "m0_5": {
+      "minute": 5,
+      "n_samples": 4068,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.6411,
+          "cv_mean": 0.641,
+          "cv_std": 0.014
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.6326,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6328,
+          "cv_std": 0.01
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.6494,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6497,
+          "cv_std": 0.0207
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.6577,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6578,
+          "cv_std": 0.0187
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.5881,
+          "cv_mean": 0.5879,
+          "cv_std": 0.0163
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.661
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": 0.84,
+        "lgb": -0.1328,
+        "cat": 0.8597,
+        "logreg": 2.4067,
+        "mlp": 0.03
+      }
+    },
+    "m1": {
+      "minute": 10,
+      "n_samples": 4063,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.6921,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6924,
+          "cv_std": 0.015
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.6956,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6963,
+          "cv_std": 0.0174
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.7049,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7058,
+          "cv_std": 0.0145
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.717,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7173,
+          "cv_std": 0.0152
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.6378,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6389,
+          "cv_std": 0.0138
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.718
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": 0.0599,
+        "lgb": 0.628,
+        "cat": 0.5555,
+        "logreg": 3.004,
+        "mlp": 0.0988
+      }
+    },
+    "m1_8": {
+      "minute": 8,
+      "n_samples": 4066,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.6681,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6682,
+          "cv_std": 0.022
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.6716,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6714,
+          "cv_std": 0.0253
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.6888,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6892,
+          "cv_std": 0.0229
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.694,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6946,
+          "cv_std": 0.0233
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.6145,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6146,
+          "cv_std": 0.0094
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.6967
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": -0.1924,
+        "lgb": 0.2468,
+        "cat": 1.5773,
+        "logreg": 2.5726,
+        "mlp": 0.0499
+      }
+    },
+    "m15": {
+      "minute": 15,
+      "n_samples": 4027,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.7441,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7442,
+          "cv_std": 0.0121
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.745,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7454,
+          "cv_std": 0.011
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.7571,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7575,
+          "cv_std": 0.0128
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.7707,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7711,
+          "cv_std": 0.0122
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.6886,
+          "cv_mean": 0.6891,
+          "cv_std": 0.0253
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.7703
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": 0.0017,
+        "lgb": 0.1837,
+        "cat": 0.3893,
+        "logreg": 3.8986,
+        "mlp": 0.1605
+      }
+    },
+    "m2": {
+      "minute": 20,
+      "n_samples": 3908,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.8161,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8164,
+          "cv_std": 0.0103
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.8135,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8143,
+          "cv_std": 0.0088
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.8236,
+          "cv_mean": 0.824,
+          "cv_std": 0.0112
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.8358,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8361,
+          "cv_std": 0.013
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.7648,
+          "cv_mean": 0.7651,
+          "cv_std": 0.02
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.8358
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": 0.3341,
+        "lgb": -0.4312,
+        "cat": 0.682,
+        "logreg": 4.3019,
+        "mlp": 0.1736
+      }
+    },
+    "m25": {
+      "minute": 25,
+      "n_samples": 3443,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.8785,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8793,
+          "cv_std": 0.0087
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.8798,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8809,
+          "cv_std": 0.0125
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.8852,
+          "cv_mean": 0.886,
+          "cv_std": 0.0068
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.893,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8931,
+          "cv_std": 0.0088
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.8307,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8308,
+          "cv_std": 0.0111
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.8928
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": 0.0639,
+        "lgb": 0.0098,
+        "cat": 1.3279,
+        "logreg": 4.0398,
+        "mlp": -0.0197
+      }
+    },
+    "m3": {
+      "minute": 30,
+      "n_samples": 2447,
+      "results": {
+        "xgb": {
+          "auc": 0.8957,
+          "cv_mean": 0.896,
+          "cv_std": 0.0166
+        },
+        "lgb": {
+          "auc": 0.8895,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8895,
+          "cv_std": 0.0167
+        },
+        "cat": {
+          "auc": 0.8945,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8945,
+          "cv_std": 0.0177
+        },
+        "logreg": {
+          "auc": 0.9041,
+          "cv_mean": 0.9043,
+          "cv_std": 0.0163
+        },
+        "mlp": {
+          "auc": 0.8511,
+          "cv_mean": 0.8516,
+          "cv_std": 0.0196
+        },
+        "stacking": {
+          "auc": 0.9051
+        }
+      },
+      "meta_weights": {
+        "xgb": 1.2849,
+        "lgb": -0.4324,
+        "cat": 0.4412,
+        "logreg": 4.1308,
+        "mlp": -0.0092
+      }
+    }
+  },
+  "duration_models": {
+    "dur_m5": {
+      "minute": 5,
+      "r2": 0.0772,
+      "mae": 7.2,
+      "n_samples": 4068
+    },
+    "dur_m10": {
+      "minute": 10,
+      "r2": 0.1225,
+      "mae": 6.98,
+      "n_samples": 4063
+    },
+    "dur_m15": {
+      "minute": 15,
+      "r2": 0.1843,
+      "mae": 6.61,
+      "n_samples": 4027
+    },
+    "dur_m20": {
+      "minute": 20,
+      "r2": 0.2185,
+      "mae": 6.27,
+      "n_samples": 3908
+    }
+  }
+}