/** * Climate Impact Assessment * Comprehensive climate change impact analysis and adaptation planning */ export class ClimateImpactAssessment { constructor() { this.climateIndicators = { temperature: { current: null, historical: null, projected: null, threshold: { warning: 1.5, critical: 2.0 }, // °C above pre-industrial unit: '°C' }, precipitation: { current: null, historical: null, projected: null, threshold: { warning: 20, critical: 40 }, // % change unit: 'mm' }, seaLevel: { current: null, historical: null, projected: null, threshold: { warning: 0.3, critical: 0.6 }, // meters unit: 'm' }, extremeEvents: { heatwaves: { frequency: 0, intensity: 0 }, droughts: { frequency: 0, severity: 0 }, floods: { frequency: 0, magnitude: 0 }, storms: { frequency: 0, intensity: 0 } } }; this.vulnerabilitySectors = { agriculture: { indicators: ['temperature', 'precipitation', 'extremeEvents'], sensitivity: 'high', adaptiveCapacity: 'medium' }, water: { indicators: ['precipitation', 'temperature', 'extremeEvents'], sensitivity: 'high', adaptiveCapacity: 'low' }, coastal: { indicators: ['seaLevel', 'storms', 'temperature'], sensitivity: 'very_high', adaptiveCapacity: 'low' }, urban: { indicators: ['temperature', 'precipitation', 'extremeEvents'], sensitivity: 'medium', adaptiveCapacity: 'high' }, ecosystems: { indicators: ['temperature', 'precipitation', 'extremeEvents'], sensitivity: 'very_high', adaptiveCapacity: 'very_low' }, health: { indicators: ['temperature', 'extremeEvents', 'precipitation'], sensitivity: 'high', adaptiveCapacity: 'medium' } }; this.adaptationStrategies = { agriculture: [ 'Drought-resistant crop varieties', 'Improved irrigation systems', 'Crop diversification', 'Soil conservation practices', 'Climate-smart agriculture techniques' ], water: [ 'Water conservation measures', 'Rainwater harvesting', 'Groundwater management', 'Water recycling systems', 'Drought preparedness plans' ], coastal: [ 'Sea wall construction', 'Mangrove restoration', 'Managed retreat strategies', 'Early warning systems', 'Coastal zone planning' ], urban: [ 'Green infrastructure', 'Heat island mitigation', 'Flood management systems', 'Building codes adaptation', 'Emergency preparedness' ], ecosystems: [ 'Protected area expansion', 'Habitat connectivity', 'Species conservation', 'Ecosystem restoration', 'Assisted migration' ], health: [ 'Heat wave preparedness', 'Disease surveillance', 'Healthcare system strengthening', 'Public health education', 'Vulnerable population protection' ] }; } /** * Assess climate impact for a location */ async assessClimateImpact(location, timeframe = '2050', sectors = null) { try { console.log('🌡️ Starting climate impact assessment...'); // Get climate data for location const climateData = await this.getClimateData(location, timeframe); // Analyze climate indicators const indicatorAnalysis = this.analyzeClimateIndicators(climateData); // Assess vulnerability by sector const sectorsToAnalyze = sectors || Object.keys(this.vulnerabilitySectors); const vulnerabilityAssessment = this.assessVulnerability(indicatorAnalysis, sectorsToAnalyze); // Calculate overall risk const riskAssessment = this.calculateOverallRisk(vulnerabilityAssessment); // Generate adaptation recommendations const adaptationPlan = this.generateAdaptationPlan(vulnerabilityAssessment, sectorsToAnalyze); // Create impact timeline const impactTimeline = this.createImpactTimeline(climateData, timeframe); // Generate economic impact estimates const economicImpact = this.estimateEconomicImpact(vulnerabilityAssessment); const assessment = { timestamp: new Date().toISOString(), location: location, timeframe: timeframe, climateData: climateData, indicatorAnalysis: indicatorAnalysis, vulnerabilityAssessment: vulnerabilityAssessment, riskAssessment: riskAssessment, adaptationPlan: adaptationPlan, impactTimeline: impactTimeline, economicImpact: economicImpact, confidence: this.calculateConfidence(climateData), dataSource: climateData.source || 'Climate Models', lastUpdated: new Date().toISOString() }; console.log('✅ Climate impact assessment completed'); return assessment; } catch (error) { console.error('Climate impact assessment failed:', error); throw new Error(`Climate impact assessment failed: ${error.message}`); } } /** * Get climate data for location and timeframe */ async getClimateData(location, timeframe) { // In a real implementation, this would call climate APIs // For now, generate realistic projections based on location console.log('🌐 Fetching climate data for:', location, timeframe); // Simulate API delay await new Promise(resolve => setTimeout(resolve, 800)); return this.generateClimateProjections(location, timeframe); } /** * Generate climate projections based on location */ generateClimateProjections(location, timeframe) { const locationLower = location.toLowerCase(); const year = parseInt(timeframe) || 2050; const yearsFromNow = year - new Date().getFullYear(); // Base climate data (current approximate values) let baseTemp = 15; // Global average let basePrecip = 1000; // mm/year let baseSeaLevel = 0; // current level // Adjust base values by location if (locationLower.includes('arctic') || locationLower.includes('polar')) { baseTemp = -10; basePrecip = 400; } else if (locationLower.includes('tropical') || locationLower.includes('equator')) { baseTemp = 26; basePrecip = 2000; } else if (locationLower.includes('desert') || locationLower.includes('arid')) { baseTemp = 25; basePrecip = 200; } else if (locationLower.includes('temperate') || locationLower.includes('europe')) { baseTemp = 12; basePrecip = 800; } else if (locationLower.includes('coastal') || locationLower.includes('island')) { baseTemp = 18; basePrecip = 1200; } // Calculate projections based on timeframe const tempIncrease = (yearsFromNow / 30) * 1.5; // 1.5°C by 2050 const precipChange = (Math.random() - 0.5) * 0.4 * (yearsFromNow / 30); // ±20% by 2050 const seaLevelRise = (yearsFromNow / 30) * 0.3; // 30cm by 2050 // Generate extreme events based on warming const extremeMultiplier = 1 + (tempIncrease / 2); return { location: location, timeframe: timeframe, temperature: { current: baseTemp, historical: baseTemp - 0.8, // Pre-industrial baseline projected: baseTemp + tempIncrease, change: tempIncrease, confidence: 85 }, precipitation: { current: basePrecip, historical: basePrecip, projected: basePrecip * (1 + precipChange), change: precipChange * 100, // percentage confidence: 70 }, seaLevel: { current: 0, historical: -0.2, // 20cm below current projected: seaLevelRise, change: seaLevelRise, confidence: 75 }, extremeEvents: { heatwaves: { frequency: Math.round(2 * extremeMultiplier), intensity: Math.round(35 + tempIncrease * 2), confidence: 80 }, droughts: { frequency: Math.round(1.5 * extremeMultiplier), severity: Math.round(3 + tempIncrease), confidence: 70 }, floods: { frequency: Math.round(1.8 * extremeMultiplier), magnitude: Math.round(150 + Math.abs(precipChange) * 100), confidence: 65 }, storms: { frequency: Math.round(3 * extremeMultiplier), intensity: Math.round(120 + tempIncrease * 5), confidence: 60 } }, source: 'Climate Model Projections', scenario: 'RCP4.5', // Representative Concentration Pathway timestamp: new Date().toISOString() }; } /** * Analyze climate indicators */ analyzeClimateIndicators(climateData) { const analysis = {}; // Temperature analysis const tempChange = climateData.temperature.change; analysis.temperature = { change: tempChange, status: tempChange < 1.5 ? 'moderate' : tempChange < 2.0 ? 'high' : 'critical', impact: this.getTemperatureImpact(tempChange), confidence: climateData.temperature.confidence }; // Precipitation analysis const precipChange = Math.abs(climateData.precipitation.change); analysis.precipitation = { change: climateData.precipitation.change, status: precipChange < 10 ? 'low' : precipChange < 25 ? 'moderate' : 'high', impact: this.getPrecipitationImpact(climateData.precipitation.change), confidence: climateData.precipitation.confidence }; // Sea level analysis const seaLevelChange = climateData.seaLevel.change; analysis.seaLevel = { change: seaLevelChange, status: seaLevelChange < 0.2 ? 'low' : seaLevelChange < 0.5 ? 'moderate' : 'high', impact: this.getSeaLevelImpact(seaLevelChange), confidence: climateData.seaLevel.confidence }; // Extreme events analysis analysis.extremeEvents = {}; Object.keys(climateData.extremeEvents).forEach(event => { const eventData = climateData.extremeEvents[event]; analysis.extremeEvents[event] = { frequency: eventData.frequency, intensity: eventData.intensity || eventData.severity || eventData.magnitude, status: this.getExtremeEventStatus(event, eventData), impact: this.getExtremeEventImpact(event, eventData), confidence: eventData.confidence }; }); return analysis; } getTemperatureImpact(change) { if (change < 1.0) return 'Minimal impact on most systems'; if (change < 1.5) return 'Moderate impacts on agriculture and ecosystems'; if (change < 2.0) return 'Significant impacts across multiple sectors'; return 'Severe and widespread impacts, potential system collapse'; } getPrecipitationImpact(change) { const absChange = Math.abs(change); if (absChange < 5) return 'Minor changes in water availability'; if (absChange < 15) return 'Moderate impacts on water resources'; if (absChange < 25) return 'Significant water stress or flooding risks'; return change > 0 ? 'Severe flooding and infrastructure damage' : 'Extreme drought and water scarcity'; } getSeaLevelImpact(change) { if (change < 0.1) return 'Minimal coastal impacts'; if (change < 0.3) return 'Moderate coastal erosion and flooding'; if (change < 0.6) return 'Significant coastal infrastructure at risk'; return 'Severe coastal flooding, potential displacement'; } getExtremeEventStatus(event, data) { const frequency = data.frequency || 0; if (frequency <= 1) return 'low'; if (frequency <= 3) return 'moderate'; return 'high'; } getExtremeEventImpact(event, data) { const impacts = { heatwaves: 'Increased heat-related health risks and energy demand', droughts: 'Water scarcity and agricultural productivity loss', floods: 'Infrastructure damage and displacement risks', storms: 'Property damage and economic disruption' }; return impacts[event] || 'Various sectoral impacts'; } /** * Assess vulnerability by sector */ assessVulnerability(indicatorAnalysis, sectors) { const assessment = {}; sectors.forEach(sector => { const sectorConfig = this.vulnerabilitySectors[sector]; if (!sectorConfig) return; let exposureScore = 0; let sensitivityScore = this.getSensitivityScore(sectorConfig.sensitivity); let adaptiveCapacityScore = this.getAdaptiveCapacityScore(sectorConfig.adaptiveCapacity); // Calculate exposure based on relevant indicators sectorConfig.indicators.forEach(indicator => { if (indicatorAnalysis[indicator]) { exposureScore += this.getExposureScore(indicatorAnalysis[indicator]); } }); exposureScore = exposureScore / sectorConfig.indicators.length; // Calculate vulnerability (exposure + sensitivity - adaptive capacity) const vulnerabilityScore = (exposureScore + sensitivityScore - adaptiveCapacityScore) / 2; assessment[sector] = { exposure: Math.round(exposureScore), sensitivity: Math.round(sensitivityScore), adaptiveCapacity: Math.round(adaptiveCapacityScore), vulnerability: Math.round(Math.max(0, Math.min(100, vulnerabilityScore))), riskLevel: this.getRiskLevel(vulnerabilityScore), keyThreats: this.getKeyThreats(sector, indicatorAnalysis), priority: this.getPriority(vulnerabilityScore) }; }); return assessment; } getSensitivityScore(sensitivity) { const scores = { 'very_low': 20, 'low': 35, 'medium': 50, 'high': 70, 'very_high': 85 }; return scores[sensitivity] || 50; } getAdaptiveCapacityScore(capacity) { const scores = { 'very_low': 20, 'low': 35, 'medium': 50, 'high': 70, 'very_high': 85 }; return scores[capacity] || 50; } getExposureScore(indicatorAnalysis) { const statusScores = { 'low': 25, 'moderate': 50, 'high': 75, 'critical': 90 }; return statusScores[indicatorAnalysis.status] || 50; } getRiskLevel(vulnerabilityScore) { if (vulnerabilityScore < 30) return 'Low'; if (vulnerabilityScore < 50) return 'Medium'; if (vulnerabilityScore < 70) return 'High'; return 'Very High'; } getKeyThreats(sector, indicatorAnalysis) { const threats = []; if (indicatorAnalysis.temperature?.status === 'high' || indicatorAnalysis.temperature?.status === 'critical') { threats.push('Rising temperatures'); } if (Math.abs(indicatorAnalysis.precipitation?.change || 0) > 15) { threats.push(indicatorAnalysis.precipitation.change > 0 ? 'Increased flooding' : 'Increased drought'); } if (indicatorAnalysis.seaLevel?.status === 'moderate' || indicatorAnalysis.seaLevel?.status === 'high') { threats.push('Sea level rise'); } Object.keys(indicatorAnalysis.extremeEvents || {}).forEach(event => { if (indicatorAnalysis.extremeEvents[event].status === 'high') { threats.push(`Increased ${event}`); } }); return threats.slice(0, 3); // Top 3 threats } getPriority(vulnerabilityScore) { if (vulnerabilityScore >= 70) return 'Critical'; if (vulnerabilityScore >= 50) return 'High'; if (vulnerabilityScore >= 30) return 'Medium'; return 'Low'; } /** * Calculate overall risk assessment */ calculateOverallRisk(vulnerabilityAssessment) { const sectors = Object.keys(vulnerabilityAssessment); if (sectors.length === 0) return { level: 'Unknown', score: 0 }; let totalVulnerability = 0; let criticalSectors = 0; let highRiskSectors = 0; sectors.forEach(sector => { const assessment = vulnerabilityAssessment[sector]; totalVulnerability += assessment.vulnerability; if (assessment.riskLevel === 'Very High') criticalSectors++; else if (assessment.riskLevel === 'High') highRiskSectors++; }); const averageVulnerability = totalVulnerability / sectors.length; let overallRisk; if (criticalSectors > 0 || averageVulnerability >= 70) { overallRisk = 'Very High'; } else if (highRiskSectors > 1 || averageVulnerability >= 50) { overallRisk = 'High'; } else if (averageVulnerability >= 30) { overallRisk = 'Medium'; } else { overallRisk = 'Low'; } return { level: overallRisk, score: Math.round(averageVulnerability), criticalSectors: criticalSectors, highRiskSectors: highRiskSectors, mostVulnerable: this.getMostVulnerableSectors(vulnerabilityAssessment), summary: this.generateRiskSummary(overallRisk, criticalSectors, highRiskSectors) }; } getMostVulnerable(vulnerabilityAssessment) { return Object.keys(vulnerabilityAssessment) .sort((a, b) => vulnerabilityAssessment[b].vulnerability - vulnerabilityAssessment[a].vulnerability) .slice(0, 3); } getMostVulnerableSectors(vulnerabilityAssessment) { return Object.entries(vulnerabilityAssessment) .sort(([,a], [,b]) => b.vulnerability - a.vulnerability) .slice(0, 3) .map(([sector, data]) => ({ sector, vulnerability: data.vulnerability, riskLevel: data.riskLevel })); } generateRiskSummary(overallRisk, criticalSectors, highRiskSectors) { if (overallRisk === 'Very High') { return `Critical climate risks identified. ${criticalSectors} sectors face severe impacts requiring immediate action.`; } else if (overallRisk === 'High') { return `Significant climate risks present. ${highRiskSectors} sectors require priority adaptation measures.`; } else if (overallRisk === 'Medium') { return 'Moderate climate risks. Proactive adaptation planning recommended.'; } else { return 'Low climate risks currently. Continue monitoring and preparedness.'; } } /** * Generate adaptation plan */ generateAdaptationPlan(vulnerabilityAssessment, sectors) { const plan = { immediate: [], // 0-2 years shortTerm: [], // 2-5 years longTerm: [], // 5+ years crossCutting: [] }; sectors.forEach(sector => { const assessment = vulnerabilityAssessment[sector]; if (!assessment) return; const strategies = this.adaptationStrategies[sector] || []; if (assessment.priority === 'Critical') { plan.immediate.push({ sector: sector, strategy: strategies[0] || 'Emergency response planning', priority: 'Critical', timeframe: '0-2 years', cost: 'High', effectiveness: 'High' }); } else if (assessment.priority === 'High') { plan.shortTerm.push({ sector: sector, strategy: strategies[1] || 'Adaptation infrastructure', priority: 'High', timeframe: '2-5 years', cost: 'Medium', effectiveness: 'High' }); } else { plan.longTerm.push({ sector: sector, strategy: strategies[2] || 'Long-term resilience building', priority: 'Medium', timeframe: '5+ years', cost: 'Low', effectiveness: 'Medium' }); } }); // Add cross-cutting strategies plan.crossCutting = [ { strategy: 'Climate monitoring and early warning systems', sectors: 'All', timeframe: '1-3 years', priority: 'High' }, { strategy: 'Community education and awareness programs', sectors: 'All', timeframe: '0-2 years', priority: 'Medium' }, { strategy: 'Policy and regulatory framework development', sectors: 'All', timeframe: '2-5 years', priority: 'High' } ]; return plan; } /** * Create impact timeline */ createImpactTimeline(climateData, targetYear) { const currentYear = new Date().getFullYear(); const timeline = []; // Create milestones every 5 years for (let year = currentYear + 5; year <= parseInt(targetYear); year += 5) { const progress = (year - currentYear) / (parseInt(targetYear) - currentYear); timeline.push({ year: year, temperature: Math.round((climateData.temperature.current + climateData.temperature.change * progress) * 10) / 10, precipitation: Math.round(climateData.precipitation.current * (1 + climateData.precipitation.change / 100 * progress)), seaLevel: Math.round(climateData.seaLevel.change * progress * 100) / 100, keyImpacts: this.getTimelineImpacts(year, progress) }); } return timeline; } getTimelineImpacts(year, progress) { const impacts = []; if (progress > 0.3) { impacts.push('Increased frequency of extreme weather events'); } if (progress > 0.5) { impacts.push('Significant ecosystem shifts begin'); impacts.push('Agricultural productivity changes'); } if (progress > 0.7) { impacts.push('Coastal infrastructure increasingly at risk'); impacts.push('Water resource stress intensifies'); } if (progress > 0.9) { impacts.push('Major adaptation measures required'); impacts.push('Economic impacts become substantial'); } return impacts; } /** * Estimate economic impact */ estimateEconomicImpact(vulnerabilityAssessment) { let totalImpact = 0; const sectorImpacts = {}; // Rough economic impact estimates (% of GDP) const impactFactors = { agriculture: 0.15, water: 0.08, coastal: 0.12, urban: 0.20, ecosystems: 0.05, health: 0.10 }; Object.keys(vulnerabilityAssessment).forEach(sector => { const vulnerability = vulnerabilityAssessment[sector].vulnerability; const factor = impactFactors[sector] || 0.05; const impact = (vulnerability / 100) * factor * 100; // % of GDP sectorImpacts[sector] = { impact: Math.round(impact * 100) / 100, description: this.getEconomicImpactDescription(sector, impact) }; totalImpact += impact; }); return { totalImpact: Math.round(totalImpact * 100) / 100, sectorImpacts: sectorImpacts, adaptationCost: Math.round(totalImpact * 0.3 * 100) / 100, // ~30% of damage cost benefitCostRatio: 3.2, // Typical adaptation benefit-cost ratio description: this.getOverallEconomicDescription(totalImpact) }; } getEconomicImpactDescription(sector, impact) { if (impact < 0.5) return 'Minimal economic impact expected'; if (impact < 1.0) return 'Moderate economic losses likely'; if (impact < 2.0) return 'Significant economic impacts anticipated'; return 'Severe economic consequences expected'; } getOverallEconomicDescription(totalImpact) { if (totalImpact < 1.0) return 'Low overall economic impact'; if (totalImpact < 3.0) return 'Moderate economic consequences'; if (totalImpact < 6.0) return 'Significant economic impacts'; return 'Severe economic disruption expected'; } /** * Calculate confidence in assessment */ calculateConfidence(climateData) { let confidence = 75; // Base confidence // Adjust based on data quality const indicators = ['temperature', 'precipitation', 'seaLevel']; indicators.forEach(indicator => { if (climateData[indicator]?.confidence) { confidence += (climateData[indicator].confidence - 75) * 0.2; } }); // Reduce confidence for longer timeframes const year = parseInt(climateData.timeframe) || 2050; const yearsOut = year - new Date().getFullYear(); if (yearsOut > 30) confidence -= 10; if (yearsOut > 50) confidence -= 15; return Math.max(50, Math.min(95, Math.round(confidence))); } } // Create singleton instance export const climateImpactAssessment = new ClimateImpactAssessment(); // Export main assessment function export const assessClimateImpact = async (location, timeframe, sectors) => { try { return await climateImpactAssessment.assessClimateImpact(location, timeframe, sectors); } catch (error) { console.error('Climate impact assessment error:', error); throw error; } }; export default climateImpactAssessment;