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"""revolutions_exploration.ipynb
Automatically generated by Colaboratory.
Original file is located at
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1omNn2hrbDL_s1qwCOr7ViaIjrRW61YDt
"""
import random
import pandas as pd
from mesa import Agent, Model
import networkx as nx
from mesa.time import RandomActivation
from mesa.datacollection import DataCollector
import numpy as np
import seaborn as sns
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import matplotlib as mpl
import cmocean
import tqdm
import scipy as sp
from scipy.stats import beta
import opinionated
import PIL
plt.style.use("opinionated_rc")
# -----------------------------
# Decayed Beta helpers
# -----------------------------
def apply_half_life_decay(data_list, half_life, decay_factors=None):
steps = len(data_list)
if decay_factors is None or len(decay_factors) < steps:
decay_factors = [0.5 ** (i / half_life) for i in range(steps)]
return [data_list[i] * decay_factors[steps - 1 - i] for i in range(steps)]
def get_beta_mean_from_experience_dict(experiences, half_life=20, decay_factors=None):
eta = 1e-10
a = sum(apply_half_life_decay(experiences['dissident_experiences'], half_life, decay_factors)) + eta
b = sum(apply_half_life_decay(experiences['supporter_experiences'], half_life, decay_factors)) + eta
return beta.mean(a, b)
def get_beta_sample_from_experience_dict(experiences, half_life=20, decay_factors=None):
eta = 1e-10
a = sum(apply_half_life_decay(experiences['dissident_experiences'], half_life, decay_factors)) + eta
b = sum(apply_half_life_decay(experiences['supporter_experiences'], half_life, decay_factors)) + eta
return beta.rvs(a, b, size=1)[0]
# -----------------------------
# Network helpers
# -----------------------------
def generate_community_points(num_communities, total_nodes, powerlaw_exponent=2.0, sigma=0.05, plot=False):
sequence = nx.utils.powerlaw_sequence(num_communities, powerlaw_exponent)
probabilities = sequence / np.sum(sequence)
community_assignments = np.random.choice(num_communities, size=total_nodes, p=probabilities)
community_sizes = np.bincount(community_assignments)
if len(community_sizes) < num_communities:
community_sizes = np.pad(community_sizes, (0, num_communities - len(community_sizes)), 'constant')
points, community_centers = [], []
for i in range(num_communities):
center = np.random.rand(2)
community_centers.append(center)
community_points = np.random.normal(center, sigma, (community_sizes[i], 2))
points.append(community_points)
points = np.concatenate(points)
if plot:
plt.figure(figsize=(8, 8))
plt.scatter(points[:, 0], points[:, 1], alpha=0.5)
sns.kdeplot(x=points[:, 0], y=points[:, 1], levels=5, color="k", linewidths=1)
plt.show()
return points
def graph_from_coordinates(coords, radius):
kdtree = sp.spatial.cKDTree(coords)
edge_indexes = kdtree.query_pairs(radius)
g = nx.Graph()
g.add_nodes_from(list(range(len(coords))))
g.add_edges_from(edge_indexes)
return g
def ensure_neighbors(graph):
nodes = list(graph.nodes())
for node in nodes:
if graph.degree(node) == 0:
other = random.choice(nodes)
while other == node:
other = random.choice(nodes)
graph.add_edge(node, other)
return graph
def compute_homophily(G, attr_name='attr'):
same = sum(G.nodes[n1][attr_name] == G.nodes[n2][attr_name] for n1, n2 in G.edges())
m = G.number_of_edges()
return same / m if m > 0 else 0
def assign_initial_attributes(G, ratio, attr_name='attr'):
nodes = list(G.nodes)
random.shuffle(nodes)
k = int(ratio * len(nodes))
for i, node in enumerate(nodes):
G.nodes[node][attr_name] = 0 if i < k else 1
return G
def distribute_attributes(G, target_homophily, seed=None, max_iter=10000, cooling_factor=0.9995, attr_name='attr'):
random.seed(seed)
current = compute_homophily(G, attr_name)
temp = 1.0
for _ in range(max_iter):
nodes = list(G.nodes)
random.shuffle(nodes)
for n1, n2 in zip(nodes[::2], nodes[1::2]):
if G.nodes[n1][attr_name] != G.nodes[n2][attr_name]:
G.nodes[n1][attr_name], G.nodes[n2][attr_name] = G.nodes[n2][attr_name], G.nodes[n1][attr_name]
break
new = compute_homophily(G, attr_name)
delta = new - current
dir_factor = np.sign(target_homophily - current)
if abs(new - target_homophily) < abs(current - target_homophily) or \
(delta / temp < 700 and random.random() < np.exp(dir_factor * delta / temp)):
current = new
else:
G.nodes[n1][attr_name], G.nodes[n2][attr_name] = G.nodes[n2][attr_name], G.nodes[n1][attr_name]
temp *= cooling_factor
return G
def reindex_graph_to_match_attributes(G1, G2, attr_name):
g1_sorted = sorted(G1.nodes(data=True), key=lambda x: x[1][attr_name])
g2_sorted = sorted(G2.nodes(data=True), key=lambda x: x[1][attr_name])
mapping = {g2[0]: g1[0] for g2, g1 in zip(g2_sorted, g1_sorted)}
return nx.relabel_nodes(G2, mapping)
# -----------------------------
# Reporters
# -----------------------------
def compute_mean(model):
return np.mean([a.estimation for a in model.schedule.agents])
def compute_median(model):
return np.median([a.estimation for a in model.schedule.agents])
def compute_std(model):
return np.std([a.estimation for a in model.schedule.agents])
# -----------------------------
# Agent and Model
# -----------------------------
class PoliticalAgent(Agent):
def __init__(self, unique_id, model, dissident):
# Mesa versions differ here. Try the new signature, then fall back.
try:
super().__init__(unique_id, model)
except TypeError:
super().__init__() # object.__init__ without args
self.unique_id = unique_id
self.model = model
# provide .random like classic Mesa Agent did
if hasattr(model, "random"):
self.random = model.random
self.experiences = {
'dissident_experiences': [1],
'supporter_experiences': [1],
}
self.estimations = []
self.estimation = 0.5
self.experiments = []
self.dissident = dissident
def update_estimation(self, network_id):
partners = [self.model.id2agent[n]
for n in self.model.networks[network_id]['network'].neighbors(self.unique_id)]
current_estimate = get_beta_mean_from_experience_dict(
self.experiences, half_life=self.model.half_life, decay_factors=self.model.decay_factors)
self.estimations.append(current_estimate)
self.estimation = current_estimate
current_experiment = get_beta_sample_from_experience_dict(
self.experiences, half_life=self.model.half_life, decay_factors=self.model.decay_factors)
self.experiments.append(current_experiment)
if not partners:
return
partner = random.choice(partners)
ntype = self.model.networks[network_id]['type']
if ntype == 'physical':
if current_experiment >= self.model.threshold:
if partner.dissident:
self.experiences['dissident_experiences'].append(1)
self.experiences['supporter_experiences'].append(0)
else:
self.experiences['dissident_experiences'].append(0)
self.experiences['supporter_experiences'].append(1)
partner.experiences['dissident_experiences'].append(1 * self.model.social_learning_factor)
partner.experiences['supporter_experiences'].append(0)
else:
partner.experiences['dissident_experiences'].append(0)
partner.experiences['supporter_experiences'].append(1 * self.model.social_learning_factor)
elif ntype == 'social_media':
if partner.dissident:
self.experiences['dissident_experiences'].append(1 * self.model.social_media_factor)
self.experiences['supporter_experiences'].append(0)
else:
self.experiences['dissident_experiences'].append(0)
self.experiences['supporter_experiences'].append(1 * self.model.social_media_factor)
def combine_estimations(self):
# Bounded confidence placeholder; keep harmless
if not hasattr(self, "current_estimations"):
return
values = [list(d.values())[0] for d in self.current_estimations]
if len(values) > 0:
within = [v for v in values if abs(self.estimation - v) <= self.model.bounded_confidence_range]
if len(within) > 0:
self.estimation = np.mean(within)
def step(self):
if not hasattr(self, 'current_estimations'):
self.current_estimations = []
for net_id in self.model.networks.keys():
self.update_estimation(net_id)
self.combine_estimations()
del self.current_estimations
class PoliticalModel(Model):
def __init__(
self,
n_agents,
networks,
share_regime_supporters,
threshold,
social_learning_factor=1,
social_media_factor=1,
half_life=20,
print_agents=False,
print_frequency=30,
early_stopping_steps=20,
early_stopping_range=0.01,
agent_reporters=True,
intervention_list=None,
rng_seed=None,
):
# Ensure Mesa creates self.random
try:
super().__init__(rng_seed=rng_seed) # Mesa >= 3.0
except TypeError:
super().__init__(seed=rng_seed) # Mesa < 3.0
if intervention_list is None:
intervention_list = []
self.num_agents = n_agents
self.threshold = threshold
self.social_learning_factor = social_learning_factor
self.social_media_factor = social_media_factor
self.print_agents_state = print_agents
self.half_life = half_life
self.intervention_list = intervention_list
self.print_frequency = print_frequency
self.early_stopping_steps = early_stopping_steps
self.early_stopping_range = early_stopping_range
self.bounded_confidence_range = 1.0 # harmless default
self.mean_estimations = []
self.decay_factors = [0.5 ** (i / self.half_life) for i in range(500)]
self.running = True
self.share_regime_supporters = share_regime_supporters
self.schedule = RandomActivation(self)
self.networks = networks
# Align attributes across networks and compute homophilies
for i, this_network in enumerate(self.networks):
self.networks[this_network]["network"] = assign_initial_attributes(
self.networks[this_network]["network"], self.share_regime_supporters, attr_name='dissident'
)
if 'homophily' in self.networks[this_network]:
self.networks[this_network]["network"] = distribute_attributes(
self.networks[this_network]["network"],
self.networks[this_network]['homophily'],
max_iter=5000,
cooling_factor=0.995,
attr_name='dissident'
)
self.networks[this_network].setdefault('network_data_to_keep', {})
self.networks[this_network]['network_data_to_keep']['actual_homophily'] = compute_homophily(
self.networks[this_network]["network"], attr_name='dissident'
)
if i > 0:
first_key = next(iter(self.networks))
self.networks[this_network]["network"] = reindex_graph_to_match_attributes(
self.networks[first_key]["network"], self.networks[this_network]["network"], 'dissident'
)
# Create agents and id -> agent map
self.id2agent = {}
first_key = next(iter(self.networks))
for i in range(self.num_agents):
dissident_flag = self.networks[first_key]["network"].nodes[i]['dissident']
agent = PoliticalAgent(i, self, dissident_flag)
self.schedule.add(agent)
self.id2agent[i] = agent
# Model reporters
model_reporters = {
"Mean": compute_mean,
"Median": compute_median,
"STD": compute_std
}
for this_network in self.networks:
if 'network_data_to_keep' in self.networks[this_network]:
for key, value in self.networks[this_network]['network_data_to_keep'].items():
attr_name = this_network + '_' + key
setattr(self, attr_name, value)
def reporter(model, attr_name=attr_name):
return getattr(model, attr_name)
model_reporters[attr_name] = reporter
if agent_reporters:
self.datacollector = DataCollector(
model_reporters=model_reporters,
agent_reporters={"Estimation": "estimation", "Dissident": "dissident"}
)
else:
self.datacollector = DataCollector(model_reporters=model_reporters)
def step(self):
self.datacollector.collect(self)
# Interventions
for this_intervention in self.intervention_list:
if this_intervention['time'] == len(self.mean_estimations):
if this_intervention['type'] == 'threshold_adjustment':
self.threshold = max(0, min(1, self.threshold + this_intervention['strength']))
if this_intervention['type'] == 'share_adjustment':
target_supporter_share = max(0, min(1, self.share_regime_supporters + this_intervention['strength']))
agents = list(self.schedule.agents)
current_supporters = sum(not a.dissident for a in agents)
total_agents = len(agents)
required_supporters = int(target_supporter_share * total_agents)
to_change = abs(required_supporters - current_supporters)
if current_supporters / total_agents < target_supporter_share:
pool = [a for a in agents if a.dissident]
for a in random.sample(pool, min(to_change, len(pool))):
a.dissident = False
else:
pool = [a for a in agents if not a.dissident]
for a in random.sample(pool, min(to_change, len(pool))):
a.dissident = True
if this_intervention['type'] == 'social_media_adjustment':
self.social_media_factor = max(0, min(1, self.social_media_factor + this_intervention['strength']))
self.schedule.step()
self.mean_estimations.append(compute_mean(self))
if len(self.mean_estimations) >= self.early_stopping_steps:
recent = self.mean_estimations[-self.early_stopping_steps:]
if max(recent) - min(recent) < self.early_stopping_range:
self.running = False
# -----------------------------
# Runner and plotting
# -----------------------------
def run_and_plot_simulation(
separate_agent_types=False,
n_agents=300,
share_regime_supporters=0.4,
threshold=0.5,
social_learning_factor=1,
simulation_steps=40,
half_life=20,
phys_network_radius=.06,
powerlaw_exponent=3,
physical_network_type='Fully Connected',
introduce_physical_homophily_true_false=False,
physical_homophily=.5,
introduce_social_media_homophily_true_false=False,
social_media_homophily=.5,
social_media_network_type_random_geometric_radius=.07,
social_media_network_type_powerlaw_exponent=3,
social_media_network_type='Powerlaw',
use_social_media_network=False,
social_media_factor=1.0,
rng_seed=None
):
print(physical_network_type)
networks = {}
# Physical network
if physical_network_type == 'Fully Connected':
G = nx.complete_graph(n_agents)
networks['physical'] = {"network": G, "type": "physical", "positions": nx.circular_layout(G)}
elif physical_network_type == "Powerlaw":
s = nx.utils.powerlaw_sequence(n_agents, powerlaw_exponent)
G = nx.expected_degree_graph(s, selfloops=False)
G = nx.convert_node_labels_to_integers(ensure_neighbors(G))
networks['physical'] = {"network": G, "type": "physical", "positions": nx.kamada_kawai_layout(G)}
elif physical_network_type == "Random Geometric":
pts = np.random.rand(n_agents, 2)
G = graph_from_coordinates(pts, phys_network_radius)
G = nx.convert_node_labels_to_integers(ensure_neighbors(G))
networks['physical'] = {"network": G, "type": "physical", "positions": pts}
if introduce_physical_homophily_true_false:
networks['physical']['homophily'] = physical_homophily
networks['physical'].setdefault('network_data_to_keep', {})
# Social media network
if use_social_media_network:
if social_media_network_type == 'Fully Connected':
G = nx.complete_graph(n_agents)
networks['social_media'] = {"network": G, "type": "social_media", "positions": nx.circular_layout(G)}
elif social_media_network_type == "Powerlaw":
s = nx.utils.powerlaw_sequence(n_agents, social_media_network_type_powerlaw_exponent)
G = nx.expected_degree_graph(s, selfloops=False)
G = nx.convert_node_labels_to_integers(ensure_neighbors(G))
networks['social_media'] = {"network": G, "type": "social_media", "positions": nx.kamada_kawai_layout(G)}
elif social_media_network_type == "Random Geometric":
pts = np.random.rand(n_agents, 2)
G = graph_from_coordinates(pts, social_media_network_type_random_geometric_radius)
G = nx.convert_node_labels_to_integers(ensure_neighbors(G))
networks['social_media'] = {"network": G, "type": "social_media", "positions": pts}
if introduce_social_media_homophily_true_false:
networks['social_media']['homophily'] = social_media_homophily
networks['social_media'].setdefault('network_data_to_keep', {})
model = PoliticalModel(
n_agents,
networks,
share_regime_supporters,
threshold,
social_learning_factor=social_learning_factor,
social_media_factor=social_media_factor,
half_life=half_life,
print_agents=False,
print_frequency=50,
agent_reporters=True,
intervention_list=[],
rng_seed=rng_seed
)
for _ in tqdm.tqdm(range(simulation_steps)):
model.step()
agent_df = model.datacollector.get_agent_vars_dataframe().reset_index()
agent_df_pivot = agent_df.pivot(index='Step', columns='AgentID', values='Estimation')
# Time series plot
fig1, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(12, 8))
if not separate_agent_types:
for col in agent_df_pivot.columns:
plt.plot(agent_df_pivot.index, agent_df_pivot[col], color='gray', alpha=0.1)
mean_est = agent_df_pivot.mean(axis=1)
plt.plot(mean_est.index, mean_est, color='black', linewidth=2)
else:
colors = {1: '#d6a44b', 0: '#1b4968'}
for aid in agent_df_pivot.columns:
typ = agent_df.loc[agent_df['AgentID'] == aid, 'Dissident'].iloc[0]
plt.plot(agent_df_pivot.index, agent_df_pivot[aid], color=colors[typ], alpha=0.1)
for typ, color in colors.items():
mean_est = agent_df_pivot.loc[:, agent_df[agent_df['Dissident'] == typ]['AgentID']].mean(axis=1)
plt.plot(mean_est.index, mean_est, color=color, linewidth=2, label='Dissident' if typ == 1 else 'Supporter')
plt.legend(loc='lower right')
plt.title('Agent Estimation Over Time', loc='right')
plt.xlabel('Time step')
plt.ylabel('Estimation')
plt.savefig('run_plot.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=400, transparent=True)
run_plot = PIL.Image.open('run_plot.png').convert('RGBA')
# Network plot
n_networks = len(networks)
fig2, axs = plt.subplots(1, n_networks, figsize=(9.5 * n_networks, 8))
if n_networks == 1:
axs = [axs]
estimations = {a.unique_id: a.estimation for a in model.schedule.agents}
for idx, (net_id, net_dict) in enumerate(networks.items()):
net = net_dict['network']
nx.set_node_attributes(net, estimations, 'estimation')
pos = net_dict.get('positions', nx.kamada_kawai_layout(net))
node_colors = [estimations[node] for node in net.nodes]
axs[idx].set_title(f'Network: {net_id}', loc='right')
nx.draw_networkx_nodes(
net, pos, node_size=50, node_color=node_colors,
cmap=cmocean.tools.crop_by_percent(cmocean.cm.curl, 20, which='both', N=None),
vmin=0, vmax=1, ax=axs[idx]
)
nx.draw_networkx_edges(net, pos, alpha=0.3, ax=axs[idx])
sm = mpl.cm.ScalarMappable(
cmap=cmocean.tools.crop_by_percent(cmocean.cm.curl, 20, which='both', N=None),
norm=plt.Normalize(vmin=0, vmax=1)
)
sm.set_array([])
fig2.colorbar(sm, ax=axs[idx])
plt.savefig('network_plot.png', bbox_inches='tight', dpi=400, transparent=True)
network_plot = PIL.Image.open('network_plot.png').convert('RGBA')
return run_plot, network_plot
# -----------------------------
# Gradio UI
# -----------------------------
import gradio as gr
with gr.Blocks(theme=gr.themes.Monochrome()) as demo:
with gr.Column():
gr.Markdown("""# Simulate the emergence of social movements
Vary the parameters below, and click 'Run Simulation' to run.
""")
with gr.Row():
with gr.Column():
with gr.Group():
separate_agent_types = gr.Checkbox(value=False, label="Separate agent types in plot")
n_agents_slider = gr.Slider(100, 500, step=10, label="Number of Agents", value=150)
share_regime_slider = gr.Slider(0.0, 1.0, step=0.01, label="Share of Regime Supporters", value=0.4)
threshold_slider = gr.Slider(0.0, 1.0, step=0.01, label="Threshold", value=0.5)
social_learning_slider = gr.Slider(0.0, 2.0, step=0.1, label="Social Learning Factor", value=1.0)
steps_slider = gr.Slider(10, 100, step=5, label="Simulation Steps", value=40)
half_life_slider = gr.Slider(5, 50, step=5, label="Half-Life", value=20)
# Physical network settings
with gr.Group():
gr.Markdown("""**Physical Network Settings:**""")
introduce_physical_homophily_true_false = gr.Checkbox(value=False, label="Stipulate Homophily")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as homophily_group:
physical_homophily = gr.Slider(0, 1, label="Homophily", info='How much homophily to stipulate.')
def update_homophily_group_visibility(checkbox_state):
return {homophily_group: gr.Group(visible=checkbox_state)}
introduce_physical_homophily_true_false.change(
update_homophily_group_visibility,
inputs=introduce_physical_homophily_true_false,
outputs=homophily_group
)
physical_network_type = gr.Dropdown(label="Physical Network Type", value="Fully Connected",
choices=["Fully Connected", "Random Geometric", "Powerlaw"])
with gr.Group(visible=True) as physical_network_type_fully_connected_group:
gr.Markdown("""""")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as physical_network_type_random_geometric_group:
physical_network_type_random_geometric_radius = gr.Slider(0.0, 0.5, label="Radius")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as physical_network_type_powerlaw_group:
physical_network_type_random_geometric_powerlaw_exponent = gr.Slider(0.0, 5.2, label="Powerlaw Exponent")
def update_sliders(option):
return {
physical_network_type_fully_connected_group: gr.Group(visible=option == "Fully Connected"),
physical_network_type_random_geometric_group: gr.Group(visible=option == "Random Geometric"),
physical_network_type_powerlaw_group: gr.Group(visible=option == "Powerlaw")
}
physical_network_type.change(
update_sliders,
inputs=physical_network_type,
outputs=[
physical_network_type_fully_connected_group,
physical_network_type_random_geometric_group,
physical_network_type_powerlaw_group
]
)
# Social media settings
use_social_media_network = gr.Checkbox(value=False, label="Use social media network")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as social_media_group:
gr.Markdown("""**Social Media Network Settings:**""")
social_media_factor = gr.Slider(0, 2, label="Social Media Factor",
info='Weight of social media vs learning in the real world.',
value=1.0)
introduce_social_media_homophily_true_false = gr.Checkbox(value=False, label="Stipulate Homophily")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as social_media_homophily_group:
social_media_homophily = gr.Slider(0, 1, label="Homophily", info='How much homophily to stipulate in social media network.')
def update_social_media_homophily_group_visibility(checkbox_state):
return {social_media_homophily_group: gr.Group(visible=checkbox_state)}
introduce_social_media_homophily_true_false.change(
update_social_media_homophily_group_visibility,
inputs=introduce_social_media_homophily_true_false,
outputs=social_media_homophily_group
)
social_media_network_type = gr.Dropdown(label="Social Media Network Type", value="Fully Connected",
choices=["Fully Connected", "Random Geometric", "Powerlaw"])
with gr.Group(visible=True) as social_media_network_type_fully_connected_group:
gr.Markdown("""""")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as social_media_network_type_random_geometric_group:
social_media_network_type_random_geometric_radius = gr.Slider(0.0, 0.5, label="Radius")
with gr.Group(visible=False) as social_media_network_type_powerlaw_group:
social_media_network_type_powerlaw_exponent = gr.Slider(0.0, 5.2, label="Powerlaw Exponent")
def update_social_media_network_sliders(option):
return {
social_media_network_type_fully_connected_group: gr.Group(visible=option == "Fully Connected"),
social_media_network_type_random_geometric_group: gr.Group(visible=option == "Random Geometric"),
social_media_network_type_powerlaw_group: gr.Group(visible=option == "Powerlaw")
}
social_media_network_type.change(
update_social_media_network_sliders,
inputs=social_media_network_type,
outputs=[
social_media_network_type_fully_connected_group,
social_media_network_type_random_geometric_group,
social_media_network_type_powerlaw_group
]
)
def update_social_media_group_visibility(checkbox_state):
return {social_media_group: gr.Group(visible=checkbox_state)}
use_social_media_network.change(
update_social_media_group_visibility,
inputs=use_social_media_network,
outputs=social_media_group
)
with gr.Column():
button = gr.Button("Run Simulation")
plot_output = gr.Image(label="Simulation Result")
network_output = gr.Image(label="Networks")
def run_simulation_and_plot(*args):
return run_and_plot_simulation(*args)
button.click(
run_simulation_and_plot,
inputs=[
separate_agent_types,
n_agents_slider,
share_regime_slider,
threshold_slider,
social_learning_slider,
steps_slider,
half_life_slider,
physical_network_type_random_geometric_radius,
physical_network_type_random_geometric_powerlaw_exponent,
physical_network_type,
introduce_physical_homophily_true_false,
physical_homophily,
introduce_social_media_homophily_true_false,
social_media_homophily,
social_media_network_type_random_geometric_radius,
social_media_network_type_powerlaw_exponent,
social_media_network_type,
use_social_media_network,
social_media_factor,
],
outputs=[plot_output, network_output]
)
if __name__ == "__main__":
demo.launch(debug=True) |