app.py

# ============================================================
# PORTFOLIO INTELLIGENCE ENGINE - FULL APP.PY
# Live + Historical Data Enabled
# ============================================================

import yfinance as yf
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from scipy.optimize import minimize
from scipy import stats
from dataclasses import dataclass
from typing import Dict, List
import warnings

warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")

# ============================================================
# DATA ENGINE
# ============================================================

class MarketDataLoader:
    def __init__(self, lookback_days=365, interval="1d"):
        self.lookback_days = lookback_days
        self.interval = interval

    def fetch(self, symbols: List[str]) -> Dict[str, pd.DataFrame]:
        end = datetime.now()
        start = end - timedelta(days=self.lookback_days)

        data = {}
        for s in symbols:
            df = yf.download(
                s,
                start=start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
                end=end.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
                interval=self.interval,
                auto_adjust=True,
                progress=False
            )
            if not df.empty:
                data[s] = df[["Open", "High", "Low", "Close", "Volume"]].dropna()
        return data


# ============================================================
# AI FORECAST ENGINE (PROXY)
# ============================================================

class SimpleAIForecaster:
    def forecast(self, prices: pd.Series, horizon=30) -> Dict:
        returns = np.log(prices / prices.shift(1)).dropna()
        mu = returns.mean() * horizon
        sigma = returns.std() * np.sqrt(horizon)

        samples = np.random.normal(mu, sigma, 1000)

        return {
            "samples": samples,
            "expected_return": mu,
            "confidence": float(np.clip(1 / (1 + sigma * 10), 0.3, 0.9))
        }


# ============================================================
# REGIME DETECTOR
# ============================================================

class RegimeDetector:
    def detect(self, returns: pd.Series) -> Dict:
        vol = returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)
        momentum = returns.rolling(20).mean().iloc[-1]

        if momentum > 0 and vol < 0.25:
            return {"regime": "bull", "confidence": 0.7}
        elif momentum < 0:
            return {"regime": "bear", "confidence": 0.7}
        else:
            return {"regime": "sideways", "confidence": 0.6}


# ============================================================
# FEATURE ENGINE
# ============================================================

@dataclass
class AssetFeature:
    symbol: str
    expected_return: float
    confidence: float
    volatility: float
    returns: pd.Series
    regime: str


class FeatureBuilder:
    def build(self, symbol, df, forecast, regime) -> AssetFeature:
        returns = np.log(df["Close"] / df["Close"].shift(1)).dropna()
        vol = returns.std() * np.sqrt(252)

        return AssetFeature(
            symbol=symbol,
            expected_return=forecast["expected_return"] * forecast["confidence"],
            confidence=forecast["confidence"],
            volatility=vol,
            returns=returns,
            regime=regime["regime"]
        )


# ============================================================
# OPTIMIZATION ENGINE
# ============================================================

class Optimizer:
    def optimize(self, features: List[AssetFeature]) -> np.ndarray:
        returns = np.array([f.expected_return for f in features])
        returns = np.clip(returns, -0.5, 0.5)

        returns_df = pd.concat(
            [f.returns for f in features],
            axis=1
        )
        returns_df.columns = [f.symbol for f in features]

        cov = returns_df.cov().values
        n = len(features)

        def objective(w):
            port_ret = w @ returns
            port_vol = np.sqrt(w @ cov @ w)
            return -(port_ret / (port_vol + 1e-8))

        bounds = [(0.05, 0.5) for _ in range(n)]
        cons = [{"type": "eq", "fun": lambda w: np.sum(w) - 1}]
        w0 = np.ones(n) / n

        res = minimize(objective, w0, bounds=bounds, constraints=cons)
        return res.x if res.success else w0


# ============================================================
# RISK ANALYTICS
# ============================================================

class RiskEngine:
    def analyze(self, weights, features):
        returns = np.array([f.expected_return for f in features])
        returns_df = pd.concat([f.returns for f in features], axis=1)
        cov = returns_df.cov().values

        port_ret = weights @ returns
        port_vol = np.sqrt(weights @ cov @ weights)
        sharpe = (port_ret - 0.04) / port_vol if port_vol > 0 else 0

        return {
            "expected_return": port_ret,
            "volatility": port_vol,
            "sharpe": sharpe
        }


# ============================================================
# MAIN ORCHESTRATOR
# ============================================================

class PortfolioApp:
    def __init__(self, symbols):
        self.symbols = symbols
        self.data_loader = MarketDataLoader()
        self.forecaster = SimpleAIForecaster()
        self.regime_detector = RegimeDetector()
        self.feature_builder = FeatureBuilder()
        self.optimizer = Optimizer()
        self.risk_engine = RiskEngine()

    def run(self):
        market_data = self.data_loader.fetch(self.symbols)
        features = []

        for s, df in market_data.items():
            forecast = self.forecaster.forecast(df["Close"])
            returns = np.log(df["Close"] / df["Close"].shift(1)).dropna()
            regime = self.regime_detector.detect(returns)
            feature = self.feature_builder.build(s, df, forecast, regime)
            features.append(feature)

        weights = self.optimizer.optimize(features)
        risk = self.risk_engine.analyze(weights, features)

        print("\n📊 PORTFÖY SONUCU\n")
        for i, f in enumerate(features):
            print(f"{f.symbol:5s} | Weight: {weights[i]:.2%} | Regime: {f.regime}")

        print("\n--- RISK METRICS ---")
        print(f"Expected Return : {risk['expected_return']:.2%}")
        print(f"Volatility      : {risk['volatility']:.2%}")
        print(f"Sharpe Ratio    : {risk['sharpe']:.2f}")


# ============================================================
# RUN
# ============================================================

if __name__ == "__main__":
    symbols = ["XOM", "GOOGL", "WMT", "JNJ"]
    app = PortfolioApp(symbols)
    app.run()