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"capsule_id": "CREATOR_X_SYNTHETIC_EXAMPLE_EA4BD6E1D6B6",
"causal_families": [
{
"causal_family_id": "CF_DISTRIBUTION_STATE",
"description": "Visible distribution baseline, breakpoint, persistence, and recovery state.",
"member_event_ids": [
"EVENT_0000",
"EVENT_0001"
],
"state": "COLLAPSED_FOR_SINGLE_CASE_REVIEW"
}
],
"competing_hypotheses": [
{
"falsifiers": [
"A persistent account-level breakpoint across comparable content and matched controls.",
"Platform records showing an account-conditioned recommendation or distribution state."
],
"fit": "HELD",
"hypothesis": "H0 — ordinary audience variation or post-level performance variance",
"supporting_observations": [
"Single-account metrics can vary for reasons not visible in the packet."
]
},
{
"falsifiers": [
"Receipts showing materially stable cadence, format, and subject topology across the breakpoint.",
"Comparable content performing differently before and after the breakpoint."
],
"fit": "LOW",
"hypothesis": "H1 — creator posting cadence, format, or subject-mix change",
"supporting_observations": [
"Changes in creator behavior can alter visible distribution."
]
},
{
"falsifiers": [
"Matched comparison accounts not exhibiting the same transition during the same period.",
"Platform change logs excluding the relevant surface or account cohort."
],
"fit": "HELD",
"hypothesis": "H2 — platform-wide recommender or demand change",
"supporting_observations": [
"A platform-wide change can affect many creators simultaneously."
]
},
{
"falsifiers": [
"Account-level eligibility history showing no relevant state change.",
"A complete organic explanation reproducing the observed breakpoint and persistence."
],
"fit": "HELD",
"hypothesis": "H3 — account-conditioned distribution or recommendation state",
"supporting_observations": [
"An abrupt persistent reach change can be generated by an account-level hidden state.",
"Notification or label events may identify a candidate state transition."
]
},
{
"falsifiers": [
"Records showing full downstream restoration at clearance time.",
"Evidence that the reach change preceded and was independent of the enforcement state."
],
"fit": "HELD",
"hypothesis": "H4 — enforcement, label, or review state coupled to distribution and incomplete restoration",
"supporting_observations": [
"A label-clearance sequence without demonstrated recovery is a candidate causal family."
]
},
{
"falsifiers": [
"Cross-account comparison showing no recurrent phenotype after normalization and controls.",
"Evidence that platform/machine access declined proportionally with human reach."
],
"fit": "HELD",
"hypothesis": "H5 — recurrent extraction-with-relational-severance phenotype across creators",
"supporting_observations": [
"The creator's work may remain platform-readable while human relational return contracts."
]
}
],
"execution_order_receipt": [
{
"sequence": 1,
"stage": "SOURCE_REGISTERED",
"state": "PASS"
},
{
"sequence": 2,
"stage": "EVENTS_REGISTERED",
"state": "PASS"
},
{
"sequence": 3,
"stage": "CHRONOLOGY_MAPPED",
"state": "PASS"
},
{
"sequence": 4,
"stage": "CAUSAL_FAMILIES_COLLAPSED",
"state": "PASS"
},
{
"sequence": 5,
"stage": "PREDICTIONS_FROZEN",
"state": "PASS"
},
{
"sequence": 6,
"stage": "HYPOTHESES_FROZEN",
"state": "PASS"
},
{
"sequence": 7,
"stage": "PRESSURE_TESTED",
"state": "PASS_WITH_HELD_CAUSES"
}
],
"frozen_discriminator_predictions": [
{
"prediction_id": "PRED_MATCHED_CONTROLS",
"required_sources": [
"Matched comparison capsules",
"Platform-wide change logs"
],
"state": "FROZEN_HELD",
"statement": "If the transition is platform-wide rather than account-conditioned, matched accounts and comparable surfaces should exhibit a similar time-aligned change."
},
{
"prediction_id": "PRED_ACCOUNT_STATE",
"required_sources": [
"Account recommendation-eligibility history",
"Ranking/cohort state history"
],
"state": "FROZEN_HELD",
"statement": "If an account-conditioned state contributed, account-level eligibility or ranking records should show a transition near the documented breakpoint."
},
{
"prediction_id": "PRED_RESTORATION",
"required_sources": [
"Before/after enforcement-state diff",
"Restoration execution receipt"
],
"state": "FROZEN_LOW_SIGNAL",
"statement": "If review clearance fully restored the prior state, downstream eligibility records or normalized distribution should evidence restoration after clearance."
},
{
"prediction_id": "PRED_NOTIFICATION_ROUTE",
"required_sources": [
"Notification generation and delivery logs",
"Thread interaction export"
],
"state": "FROZEN_LOW_SIGNAL",
"statement": "If relational return was degraded at notification routing, thread-visible interactions and notification-delivery logs should diverge in a reproducible way."
}
],
"minimum_cut_candidates": [
{
"candidate_cut": "Account-level recommendation or discovery eligibility",
"candidate_id": "CUT_RECOMMENDATION_ELIGIBILITY",
"potentially_degraded_path": "Independent human discovery beyond the existing audience.",
"preserved_path": "Creator content remains hosted and platform-readable.",
"required_source_return": "Account recommendation-eligibility and distribution-state history.",
"state": "HELD"
},
{
"candidate_cut": "Account- or post-conditioned distribution multiplier",
"candidate_id": "CUT_DISTRIBUTION_MULTIPLIER",
"potentially_degraded_path": "The number or diversity of humans to whom the content is delivered.",
"preserved_path": "Content remains available for engagement, indexing, and machine retrieval.",
"required_source_return": "Ranking feature values, cohort assignment, and multiplier history.",
"state": "HELD"
},
{
"candidate_cut": "Notification and reply-return routing",
"candidate_id": "CUT_NOTIFICATION_RETURN",
"potentially_degraded_path": "The creator's awareness of and ability to reciprocate human interaction.",
"preserved_path": "Replies or platform interactions can exist on-thread.",
"required_source_return": "Notification-generation, suppression, deduplication, and delivery logs.",
"state": "HELD"
},
{
"candidate_cut": "Downstream restoration after label removal, appeal, or clearance",
"candidate_id": "CUT_RESTORATION_STATE",
"potentially_degraded_path": "Prior recommendation and distribution state may remain unrestored.",
"preserved_path": "The visible label can be removed.",
"required_source_return": "Before/after enforcement state diff and restoration execution receipt.",
"state": "LOW_SIGNAL"
}
],
"zip_sha256": "0a4bdb94a4f390094a700b7cb0bbee715638dfdab858b2c8697fbf3e72562f4a"
}
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