{
  "capsule_id": "CREATOR_X_SYNTHETIC_EXAMPLE_EA4BD6E1D6B6",
  "causal_families": [
    {
      "causal_family_id": "CF_DISTRIBUTION_STATE",
      "description": "Visible distribution baseline, breakpoint, persistence, and recovery state.",
      "member_event_ids": [
        "EVENT_0000",
        "EVENT_0001"
      ],
      "state": "COLLAPSED_FOR_SINGLE_CASE_REVIEW"
    }
  ],
  "competing_hypotheses": [
    {
      "falsifiers": [
        "A persistent account-level breakpoint across comparable content and matched controls.",
        "Platform records showing an account-conditioned recommendation or distribution state."
      ],
      "fit": "HELD",
      "hypothesis": "H0 — ordinary audience variation or post-level performance variance",
      "supporting_observations": [
        "Single-account metrics can vary for reasons not visible in the packet."
      ]
    },
    {
      "falsifiers": [
        "Receipts showing materially stable cadence, format, and subject topology across the breakpoint.",
        "Comparable content performing differently before and after the breakpoint."
      ],
      "fit": "LOW",
      "hypothesis": "H1 — creator posting cadence, format, or subject-mix change",
      "supporting_observations": [
        "Changes in creator behavior can alter visible distribution."
      ]
    },
    {
      "falsifiers": [
        "Matched comparison accounts not exhibiting the same transition during the same period.",
        "Platform change logs excluding the relevant surface or account cohort."
      ],
      "fit": "HELD",
      "hypothesis": "H2 — platform-wide recommender or demand change",
      "supporting_observations": [
        "A platform-wide change can affect many creators simultaneously."
      ]
    },
    {
      "falsifiers": [
        "Account-level eligibility history showing no relevant state change.",
        "A complete organic explanation reproducing the observed breakpoint and persistence."
      ],
      "fit": "HELD",
      "hypothesis": "H3 — account-conditioned distribution or recommendation state",
      "supporting_observations": [
        "An abrupt persistent reach change can be generated by an account-level hidden state.",
        "Notification or label events may identify a candidate state transition."
      ]
    },
    {
      "falsifiers": [
        "Records showing full downstream restoration at clearance time.",
        "Evidence that the reach change preceded and was independent of the enforcement state."
      ],
      "fit": "HELD",
      "hypothesis": "H4 — enforcement, label, or review state coupled to distribution and incomplete restoration",
      "supporting_observations": [
        "A label-clearance sequence without demonstrated recovery is a candidate causal family."
      ]
    },
    {
      "falsifiers": [
        "Cross-account comparison showing no recurrent phenotype after normalization and controls.",
        "Evidence that platform/machine access declined proportionally with human reach."
      ],
      "fit": "HELD",
      "hypothesis": "H5 — recurrent extraction-with-relational-severance phenotype across creators",
      "supporting_observations": [
        "The creator's work may remain platform-readable while human relational return contracts."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "execution_order_receipt": [
    {
      "sequence": 1,
      "stage": "SOURCE_REGISTERED",
      "state": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 2,
      "stage": "EVENTS_REGISTERED",
      "state": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 3,
      "stage": "CHRONOLOGY_MAPPED",
      "state": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 4,
      "stage": "CAUSAL_FAMILIES_COLLAPSED",
      "state": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 5,
      "stage": "PREDICTIONS_FROZEN",
      "state": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 6,
      "stage": "HYPOTHESES_FROZEN",
      "state": "PASS"
    },
    {
      "sequence": 7,
      "stage": "PRESSURE_TESTED",
      "state": "PASS_WITH_HELD_CAUSES"
    }
  ],
  "frozen_discriminator_predictions": [
    {
      "prediction_id": "PRED_MATCHED_CONTROLS",
      "required_sources": [
        "Matched comparison capsules",
        "Platform-wide change logs"
      ],
      "state": "FROZEN_HELD",
      "statement": "If the transition is platform-wide rather than account-conditioned, matched accounts and comparable surfaces should exhibit a similar time-aligned change."
    },
    {
      "prediction_id": "PRED_ACCOUNT_STATE",
      "required_sources": [
        "Account recommendation-eligibility history",
        "Ranking/cohort state history"
      ],
      "state": "FROZEN_HELD",
      "statement": "If an account-conditioned state contributed, account-level eligibility or ranking records should show a transition near the documented breakpoint."
    },
    {
      "prediction_id": "PRED_RESTORATION",
      "required_sources": [
        "Before/after enforcement-state diff",
        "Restoration execution receipt"
      ],
      "state": "FROZEN_LOW_SIGNAL",
      "statement": "If review clearance fully restored the prior state, downstream eligibility records or normalized distribution should evidence restoration after clearance."
    },
    {
      "prediction_id": "PRED_NOTIFICATION_ROUTE",
      "required_sources": [
        "Notification generation and delivery logs",
        "Thread interaction export"
      ],
      "state": "FROZEN_LOW_SIGNAL",
      "statement": "If relational return was degraded at notification routing, thread-visible interactions and notification-delivery logs should diverge in a reproducible way."
    }
  ],
  "minimum_cut_candidates": [
    {
      "candidate_cut": "Account-level recommendation or discovery eligibility",
      "candidate_id": "CUT_RECOMMENDATION_ELIGIBILITY",
      "potentially_degraded_path": "Independent human discovery beyond the existing audience.",
      "preserved_path": "Creator content remains hosted and platform-readable.",
      "required_source_return": "Account recommendation-eligibility and distribution-state history.",
      "state": "HELD"
    },
    {
      "candidate_cut": "Account- or post-conditioned distribution multiplier",
      "candidate_id": "CUT_DISTRIBUTION_MULTIPLIER",
      "potentially_degraded_path": "The number or diversity of humans to whom the content is delivered.",
      "preserved_path": "Content remains available for engagement, indexing, and machine retrieval.",
      "required_source_return": "Ranking feature values, cohort assignment, and multiplier history.",
      "state": "HELD"
    },
    {
      "candidate_cut": "Notification and reply-return routing",
      "candidate_id": "CUT_NOTIFICATION_RETURN",
      "potentially_degraded_path": "The creator's awareness of and ability to reciprocate human interaction.",
      "preserved_path": "Replies or platform interactions can exist on-thread.",
      "required_source_return": "Notification-generation, suppression, deduplication, and delivery logs.",
      "state": "HELD"
    },
    {
      "candidate_cut": "Downstream restoration after label removal, appeal, or clearance",
      "candidate_id": "CUT_RESTORATION_STATE",
      "potentially_degraded_path": "Prior recommendation and distribution state may remain unrestored.",
      "preserved_path": "The visible label can be removed.",
      "required_source_return": "Before/after enforcement state diff and restoration execution receipt.",
      "state": "LOW_SIGNAL"
    }
  ],
  "zip_sha256": "0a4bdb94a4f390094a700b7cb0bbee715638dfdab858b2c8697fbf3e72562f4a"
}