{
  "n_train": 4000,
  "n_test": 1000,
  "base_rate": 0.0476,
  "cohort": "synthetic_v1_seed42_n5000",
  "n_bootstraps": 500,
  "brdav_on_test": {
    "name": "brdav_followup",
    "label": "Br\u00fcggemann 2024 (real cohort, n=1,449) \u2014 different endpoint",
    "calibration_curve": [
      {
        "decile": 0,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.21244,
        "actual_mortality": 0.01
      },
      {
        "decile": 1,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.28847,
        "actual_mortality": 0.0
      },
      {
        "decile": 2,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.33177,
        "actual_mortality": 0.04
      },
      {
        "decile": 3,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.36548,
        "actual_mortality": 0.05
      },
      {
        "decile": 4,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.4004,
        "actual_mortality": 0.04
      },
      {
        "decile": 5,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.43494,
        "actual_mortality": 0.04
      },
      {
        "decile": 6,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.47166,
        "actual_mortality": 0.02
      },
      {
        "decile": 7,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.51126,
        "actual_mortality": 0.06
      },
      {
        "decile": 8,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.5599,
        "actual_mortality": 0.08
      },
      {
        "decile": 9,
        "n": 100,
        "pred_mean": 0.65698,
        "actual_mortality": 0.14
      }
    ],
    "auroc": 0.6895570728291316,
    "auroc_ci_lo": 0.6165477435477436,
    "auroc_ci_hi": 0.7575338334891509,
    "auprc": 0.11894691697321907,
    "auprc_ci_lo": 0.0761855785371724,
    "auprc_ci_hi": 0.20169722298294696,
    "brier": 0.19448950856037123,
    "n_effective_bootstraps": 500,
    "calibration_intercept": -2.7901140761804513,
    "calibration_slope": 1.3055550649823606,
    "o_over_e": 0.11338654179088853
  },
  "variants": [
    {
      "name": "v1_lgbm_baseline",
      "label": "LightGBM (baseline, no brdav)",
      "n_features": 26,
      "uses_brdav": false,
      "train_seconds": 2.33,
      "calibration_curve": [
        {
          "decile": 0,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 1e-05,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 1,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 3e-05,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 2,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 8e-05,
          "actual_mortality": 0.03
        },
        {
          "decile": 3,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00015,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 4,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.0003,
          "actual_mortality": 0.01
        },
        {
          "decile": 5,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00059,
          "actual_mortality": 0.03
        },
        {
          "decile": 6,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00124,
          "actual_mortality": 0.07
        },
        {
          "decile": 7,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00261,
          "actual_mortality": 0.03
        },
        {
          "decile": 8,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00792,
          "actual_mortality": 0.08
        },
        {
          "decile": 9,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.15107,
          "actual_mortality": 0.17
        }
      ],
      "calibration_raw_o_over_e": 2.92701601247577,
      "auroc": 0.7431832107843136,
      "auroc_ci_lo": 0.6654971932638332,
      "auroc_ci_hi": 0.8125458184007442,
      "auprc": 0.14339560395853382,
      "auprc_ci_lo": 0.0857052924645232,
      "auprc_ci_hi": 0.21995800062045834,
      "brier": 0.04263326876605697,
      "n_effective_bootstraps": 500,
      "calibration_intercept": 0.0016152897089048443,
      "calibration_slope": 1.0006689212138913,
      "o_over_e": 0.9999999791666669
    },
    {
      "name": "v2_lgbm_brdav",
      "label": "LightGBM + brdav as feature 27",
      "n_features": 27,
      "uses_brdav": true,
      "train_seconds": 2.16,
      "calibration_curve": [
        {
          "decile": 0,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 1e-05,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 1,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 3e-05,
          "actual_mortality": 0.01
        },
        {
          "decile": 2,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 7e-05,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 3,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00013,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 4,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00027,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 5,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00056,
          "actual_mortality": 0.06
        },
        {
          "decile": 6,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00113,
          "actual_mortality": 0.06
        },
        {
          "decile": 7,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00258,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 8,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00771,
          "actual_mortality": 0.08
        },
        {
          "decile": 9,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.1671,
          "actual_mortality": 0.17
        }
      ],
      "calibration_raw_o_over_e": 2.6728012193710384,
      "auroc": 0.7544314600840336,
      "auroc_ci_lo": 0.6808597309472667,
      "auroc_ci_hi": 0.8211254969449558,
      "auprc": 0.16181000805974416,
      "auprc_ci_lo": 0.09665686670526094,
      "auprc_ci_hi": 0.25631319638298095,
      "brier": 0.04219658993117402,
      "n_effective_bootstraps": 500,
      "calibration_intercept": 0.002757468732288981,
      "calibration_slope": 1.0011796001615378,
      "o_over_e": 0.9999999791666672
    },
    {
      "name": "v3_stacking",
      "label": "Stacking (LGBM + CatBoost + LR), brdav-aware",
      "n_features": 27,
      "uses_brdav": true,
      "train_seconds": 11.18,
      "calibration_curve": [
        {
          "decile": 0,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.02902,
          "actual_mortality": 0.0
        },
        {
          "decile": 1,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.02978,
          "actual_mortality": 0.0
        },
        {
          "decile": 2,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.03047,
          "actual_mortality": 0.01
        },
        {
          "decile": 3,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.03139,
          "actual_mortality": 0.04
        },
        {
          "decile": 4,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.03252,
          "actual_mortality": 0.04
        },
        {
          "decile": 5,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.03401,
          "actual_mortality": 0.03
        },
        {
          "decile": 6,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.03637,
          "actual_mortality": 0.06
        },
        {
          "decile": 7,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.04001,
          "actual_mortality": 0.04
        },
        {
          "decile": 8,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.04848,
          "actual_mortality": 0.09
        },
        {
          "decile": 9,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.14087,
          "actual_mortality": 0.17
        }
      ],
      "calibration_raw_o_over_e": 1.059792826178591,
      "auroc": 0.7805278361344538,
      "auroc_ci_lo": 0.7261439954175871,
      "auroc_ci_hi": 0.8368027552892396,
      "auprc": 0.16801679625463095,
      "auprc_ci_lo": 0.10060214737859723,
      "auprc_ci_hi": 0.2654968074897177,
      "brier": 0.041887173527302694,
      "n_effective_bootstraps": 500,
      "calibration_intercept": 0.001785150948646234,
      "calibration_slope": 1.000827044521521,
      "o_over_e": 0.9999999791666673
    },
    {
      "name": "v4_tabpfn",
      "label": "TabPFN v2 (foundation model, brdav-aware)",
      "n_features": 27,
      "uses_brdav": true,
      "train_seconds": 1.04,
      "calibration_curve": [
        {
          "decile": 0,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00343,
          "actual_mortality": 0.0
        },
        {
          "decile": 1,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00521,
          "actual_mortality": 0.0
        },
        {
          "decile": 2,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00688,
          "actual_mortality": 0.0
        },
        {
          "decile": 3,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.00903,
          "actual_mortality": 0.02
        },
        {
          "decile": 4,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.01149,
          "actual_mortality": 0.03
        },
        {
          "decile": 5,
          "n": 101,
          "pred_mean": 0.01558,
          "actual_mortality": 0.0396
        },
        {
          "decile": 6,
          "n": 99,
          "pred_mean": 0.02114,
          "actual_mortality": 0.07071
        },
        {
          "decile": 7,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.03155,
          "actual_mortality": 0.04
        },
        {
          "decile": 8,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.05292,
          "actual_mortality": 0.08
        },
        {
          "decile": 9,
          "n": 100,
          "pred_mean": 0.17746,
          "actual_mortality": 0.2
        }
      ],
      "calibration_raw_o_over_e": 1.4344382871541639,
      "auroc": 0.8143601190476191,
      "auroc_ci_lo": 0.7706158022485099,
      "auroc_ci_hi": 0.8619519432623508,
      "auprc": 0.1682243795640331,
      "auprc_ci_lo": 0.10780224461587291,
      "auprc_ci_hi": 0.2620784350727932,
      "brier": 0.041644217848314936,
      "n_effective_bootstraps": 500,
      "calibration_intercept": -0.013026845470976038,
      "calibration_slope": 0.994541501238136,
      "o_over_e": 0.9999765165840673
    }
  ],
  "external_benchmarks": [
    {
      "name": "Br\u00fcggemann 2024 Swin-UNETR",
      "cohort": "n=1,449 real Z\u00fcrich TAVR cohort",
      "auroc": "0.725",
      "endpoint": "all-cause follow-up mortality",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-63022-x"
    },
    {
      "name": "Cui 2025 MULTINet",
      "cohort": "n=761 real MIMIC-IV TAVR cohort",
      "auroc": "~0.78",
      "endpoint": "in-hospital mortality",
      "url": "https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/14/24/8620"
    },
    {
      "name": "STS-PROM 2018",
      "cohort": "trained on n=141k real SAVR; reported on TAVI external",
      "auroc": "0.62\u20130.66",
      "endpoint": "30-day mortality",
      "url": "https://riskcalc.sts.org"
    },
    {
      "name": "ACC/STS TVT (Edwards 2016)",
      "cohort": "n=13,718 real TVT registry",
      "auroc": "0.66\u20130.68",
      "endpoint": "30-day mortality",
      "url": "https://tools.acc.org/tavrrisk"
    },
    {
      "name": "EuroSCORE II",
      "cohort": "n=22k real cardiac surgery",
      "auroc": "0.62",
      "endpoint": "30-day mortality",
      "url": "http://www.euroscore.org"
    },
    {
      "name": "TRIM (Heinze 2023)",
      "cohort": "n=22,283 real GARY",
      "auroc": "0.75 (Swiss external)",
      "endpoint": "30-day mortality",
      "url": "https://academic.oup.com/ehjdh"
    }
  ]
}