import streamlit as st import pandas as pd import torch from chronos import Chronos2Pipeline import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import numpy as np from gridstatus import Ercot from datetime import datetime, timedelta # Load the Chronos Pipeline model @st.cache_resource def load_pipeline(): pipeline = Chronos2Pipeline.from_pretrained( "amazon/chronos-2", device_map="cpu", # Change to CPU dtype=torch.float32, # Use float32 for CPU ) return pipeline pipeline = load_pipeline() # Function to fetch ERCOT electricity price data @st.cache_data(ttl=3600) # Cache for 1 hour def fetch_ercot_data(days_back=160): """Fetch ERCOT day-ahead market prices for the last N days""" try: ercot = Ercot() end_date = datetime.now() start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=days_back) # Get day-ahead hourly market settlement point prices df = ercot.get_spp( date=start_date, end=end_date, market="DAY_AHEAD_HOURLY", ) # Get average price per day across all locations df['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['Interval Start']).dt.date daily_prices = df.groupby('Date')['SPP'].mean() # Convert to comma-separated string price_list = daily_prices.round(2).tolist() return ", ".join(map(str, price_list)) except Exception as e: st.warning(f"Could not fetch live ERCOT data: {e}. Using sample data instead.") return None # Streamlit app interface st.title("Electricity Market Price Forecasting with Chronos-2") st.write("This demo uses **Chronos-2** to forecast electricity prices from ERCOT (Texas) market data.") # Fetch default ERCOT data with st.spinner("Fetching latest ERCOT electricity prices..."): ercot_data = fetch_ercot_data() # Fallback to sample data if fetching fails default_data = ercot_data if ercot_data else """ 25.50, 24.80, 26.30, 23.90, 25.10, 27.20, 28.50, 26.70, 24.30, 23.80, 25.40, 26.10, 27.80, 29.20, 28.40, 26.90, 25.30, 24.70, 26.50, 28.10, 29.60, 31.20, 30.50, 28.80, 27.10, 25.90, 27.30, 28.70, 30.20, 32.10, 31.40, 29.70, 28.20, 26.80, 28.40, 29.80, 31.50, 33.20, 32.60, 30.90, 29.30, 27.80, 29.40, 30.90, 32.70, 34.50, 33.80, 32.10, 30.50, 28.90, 30.50, 32.10, 33.90, 35.80, 35.10, 33.30, 31.60, 30.10, 31.70, 33.40, 35.20, 37.10, 36.40, 34.60, 32.90, 31.30, 32.90, 34.60, 36.50, 38.40, 37.70, 35.80, 34.10, 32.50, 34.20, 35.90, 37.80, 39.80, 39.10, 37.10, 35.40, 33.70, 35.40, 37.20, 39.20, 41.20, 40.50, 38.50, 36.70, 35.00, 36.70, 38.50, 40.60, 42.60, 41.90, 39.90, 38.00, 36.30, 38.00, 39.90, 42.00, 44.10, 43.40, 41.30, 39.40 """ # Data source selection data_source = st.radio( "Select Data Source:", ["Live ERCOT Data (Last 180 Days)", "Custom Data"], index=0 ) # Input field for user-provided data if data_source == "Custom Data": user_input = st.text_area( "Enter time series data (comma-separated values):", "" ) else: user_input = st.text_area( "ERCOT Day-Ahead Hourly Market Prices ($/MWh) - Daily Average:", default_data.strip(), height=150 ) st.info("💡 Live data from ERCOT's Day-Ahead Hourly Market - averaged across all settlement points per day") # Convert user input into a list of numbers def process_input(input_str): return [float(x.strip()) for x in input_str.split(",")] try: time_series_data = process_input(user_input) except ValueError: st.error("Please make sure all values are numbers, separated by commas.") time_series_data = [] # Set empty data on error to prevent further processing # Select the number of days for forecasting prediction_length = st.slider("Select Forecast Horizon (Days)", min_value=1, max_value=64, value=14) # If data is valid, perform the forecast if time_series_data: # Create a DataFrame for Chronos-2 context_df = pd.DataFrame({ 'timestamp': pd.date_range(start='2024-01-01', periods=len(time_series_data), freq='D'), 'target': time_series_data, 'id': 'ercot_prices' }) # Make the forecast using Chronos-2 API pred_df = pipeline.predict_df( context_df, prediction_length=prediction_length, quantile_levels=[0.1, 0.5, 0.9], id_column="id", timestamp_column="timestamp", target="target", ) # Prepare forecast data for plotting forecast_index = range(len(time_series_data), len(time_series_data) + prediction_length) median = pred_df["predictions"].values low = pred_df["0.1"].values high = pred_df["0.9"].values # Plot the historical and forecasted data plt.figure(figsize=(10, 5)) plt.plot(time_series_data, color="royalblue", label="Historical Prices") plt.plot(forecast_index, median, color="tomato", label="Median Forecast") plt.fill_between(forecast_index, low, high, color="tomato", alpha=0.3, label="80% Prediction Interval") plt.xlabel("Days") plt.ylabel("Price ($/MWh)") plt.title("ERCOT Electricity Price Forecast") plt.legend() plt.grid(alpha=0.3) # Show the plot in the Streamlit app st.pyplot(plt) # Display forecast statistics st.write("### Forecast Summary") col1, col2, col3 = st.columns(3) with col1: st.metric("Median Forecast", f"${median.mean():.2f}/MWh") with col2: st.metric("Low (10th percentile)", f"${low.mean():.2f}/MWh") with col3: st.metric("High (90th percentile)", f"${high.mean():.2f}/MWh") # Note for comments, feedback, or questions st.write("### Notes") st.write("For comments, feedback, or any questions, please reach out to me on [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/javadbayazi/).")