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Update app.py
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app.py
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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import gradio as gr
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import plotly.graph_objects as go
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from plotly.subplots import make_subplots
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import plotly.express as px
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import
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import requests
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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from vaderSentiment.vaderSentiment import SentimentIntensityAnalyzer
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from prophet import Prophet
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import warnings
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import logging
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import asyncio
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import concurrent.futures
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import tempfile
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from functools import lru_cache
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from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Any, Tuple
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warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
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logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO)
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logger = logging.getLogger("unified_stock_app")
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# Optional: Try importing TimesFM
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TIMESFM_AVAILABLE = False
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try:
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import timesfm
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TIMESFM_AVAILABLE = True
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except ImportError:
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pass
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# ============================================================================
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# CONFIGURATION
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# ============================================================================
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class Config:
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FINNHUB_API_KEY = os.getenv("FINNHUB_API_KEY", "cuj17q1r01qm7p9n307gcuj17q1r01qm7p9n3080")
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DATA_DIR = "data_cache"
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CACHE_TTL_HOURS = 12
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SENTIMENT_DAYS = 90
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TECH_DATA_YEARS = 3
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@classmethod
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def initialize(cls):
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os.makedirs(cls.DATA_DIR, exist_ok=True)
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#
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# CACHING
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#
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class CacheManager:
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@staticmethod
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def get_path(filename: str) -> str:
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return os.path.join(Config.DATA_DIR, filename)
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path = CacheManager.get_path(filename)
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if not os.path.exists(path):
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return None
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file_mod_time = datetime.fromtimestamp(os.path.getmtime(path))
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if datetime.now() - file_mod_time > timedelta(hours=Config.CACHE_TTL_HOURS):
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return None
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try:
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df = pd.read_csv(path)
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for col in df.columns:
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if 'date' in col.lower():
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df[col] = pd.to_datetime(df[col])
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return df
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except Exception:
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return None
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# ============================================================================
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# FUNDAMENTALS MODULE
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# ============================================================================
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@lru_cache(maxsize=100)
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def get_financial_data(ticker: str) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
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try:
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'ROA': info.get('returnOnAssets'),
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'Gross_Margin': info.get('grossMargins'),
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'EBITDA': info.get('ebitda'),
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'Market_Cap': info.get('marketCap'),
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'Dividend_Yield': info.get('dividendYield'),
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'Profit_Margin': info.get('profitMargins'),
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'EPS_Growth': info.get('earningsGrowth'),
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'Price_to_Book': info.get('priceToBook'),
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'Current_Price': info.get('currentPrice')
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}
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except Exception as e:
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logger.error(f"Error fetching data for {ticker}: {e}")
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return None
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async def fetch_data_concurrently(tickers: List[str]) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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loop = asyncio.get_event_loop()
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with concurrent.futures.ThreadPoolExecutor() as executor:
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tasks = [loop.run_in_executor(executor, get_financial_data, ticker) for ticker in tickers]
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results = await asyncio.gather(*tasks)
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return [r for r in results if r is not None]
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def sanitize_financial_data(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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df = df.copy()
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for col in ['ROE', 'ROA', 'Profit_Margin', 'Gross_Margin']:
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if col in df.columns:
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df[col] = df[col].where((df[col] >= -2) & (df[col] <= 2), np.nan)
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for col in ['Revenue_Growth', 'EPS_Growth']:
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if col in df.columns:
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df[col] = df[col].where((df[col] >= -1) & (df[col] <= 5), np.nan)
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for col in ['Debt_to_Equity', 'Dividend_Yield']:
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if col in df.columns:
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df[col] = df[col].where(df[col] >= 0, np.nan)
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for col in ['PE_Ratio', 'Price_to_Book']:
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if col in df.columns:
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df[col] = df[col].where((df[col] > 0) & (df[col] < 1000), np.nan)
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for col in ['Market_Cap', 'EBITDA']:
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if col in df.columns:
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df[col] = df[col].where(df[col] > 0, np.nan)
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if 'Current_Price' in df.columns:
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df['Current_Price'] = df['Current_Price'].where(df['Current_Price'] > 0, np.nan)
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return df
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scored_df['EPS_Growth_Score'] = normalize(df['EPS_Growth'])
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scored_df['ROE_Score'] = normalize(df['ROE'])
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scored_df['ROA_Score'] = normalize(df['ROA'])
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scored_df['Growth_Score'] = scored_df[['Revenue_Growth_Score', 'EPS_Growth_Score', 'ROE_Score', 'ROA_Score']].mean(axis=1)
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scored_df['PE_Ratio_Score'] = normalize(df['PE_Ratio'], reverse=True)
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scored_df['Price_to_Book_Score'] = normalize(df['Price_to_Book'], reverse=True)
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scored_df['Dividend_Yield_Score'] = normalize(df['Dividend_Yield'])
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scored_df['Value_Score'] = scored_df[['PE_Ratio_Score', 'Price_to_Book_Score', 'Dividend_Yield_Score']].mean(axis=1)
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scored_df['Debt_to_Equity_No_Risk_Score'] = normalize(df['Debt_to_Equity'], reverse=True)
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scored_df['Profit_Margin_No_Risk_Score'] = normalize(df['Profit_Margin'])
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scored_df['Market_Cap_No_Risk_Score'] = normalize(df['Market_Cap'])
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scored_df['No_Risk_Score'] = scored_df[['Debt_to_Equity_No_Risk_Score', 'Profit_Margin_No_Risk_Score', 'Market_Cap_No_Risk_Score']].mean(axis=1)
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total = growth_weight + value_weight + risk_weight
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if total == 0:
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gw = vw = rw = 1/3
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else:
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gw, vw, rw = growth_weight/total, value_weight/total, risk_weight/total
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scored_df['Total_Score'] = gw * scored_df['Growth_Score'] + vw * scored_df['Value_Score'] + rw * scored_df['No_Risk_Score']
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return scored_df
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def create_metrics_table(df: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.DataFrame:
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metrics_df = df[['Ticker', 'Current_Price', 'PE_Ratio', 'Price_to_Book',
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'Debt_to_Equity', 'ROE', 'ROA', 'Revenue_Growth',
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'EPS_Growth', 'Profit_Margin', 'Dividend_Yield']].copy()
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for col in ['ROE', 'ROA', 'Revenue_Growth', 'EPS_Growth', 'Profit_Margin', 'Dividend_Yield']:
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metrics_df[col] = metrics_df[col].apply(lambda x: f"{x*100:.2f}%" if pd.notnull(x) else "N/A")
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for col in ['PE_Ratio', 'Price_to_Book', 'Debt_to_Equity']:
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metrics_df[col] = metrics_df[col].apply(lambda x: f"{x:.2f}" if pd.notnull(x) else "N/A")
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metrics_df['Current_Price'] = metrics_df['Current_Price'].apply(lambda x: f"${x:.2f}" if pd.notnull(x) else "N/A")
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return metrics_df
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# ============================================================================
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# SENTIMENT MODULE
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# ============================================================================
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class SentimentAnalyzer:
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def __init__(self):
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self.analyzer = SentimentIntensityAnalyzer()
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def analyze(self, text):
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if not isinstance(text, str) or not text.strip():
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return 0
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return self.analyzer.polarity_scores(text)['compound']
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class StockNewsAnalyzer:
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def __init__(self, symbol):
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self.symbol = symbol
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self.sentiment_analyzer = SentimentAnalyzer()
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def get_news(self, days=Config.SENTIMENT_DAYS, force_refresh=False):
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cache_file = f"{self.symbol}_news.csv"
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df = CacheManager.load_df(cache_file)
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if df is not None and not force_refresh:
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return df
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end_date = datetime.now()
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start_date = end_date - timedelta(days=days)
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# FIXED URL: NO TRAILING SPACES!
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url = "https://finnhub.io/api/v1/company-news"
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params = {
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"symbol": self.symbol,
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"from": start_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
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"to": end_date.strftime('%Y-%m-%d'),
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"token": Config.FINNHUB_API_KEY,
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}
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try:
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response = requests.get(url, params=params, timeout=10)
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response.raise_for_status()
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data = response.json()
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if not data or not isinstance(data, list):
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return pd.DataFrame()
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df = pd.DataFrame(data)
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if 'datetime' in df.columns:
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df['datetime'] = pd.to_datetime(df['datetime'], unit='s')
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CacheManager.save_df(df, cache_file)
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return df
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return pd.DataFrame()
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except Exception as e:
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print(f"Error fetching news: {e}")
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return pd.DataFrame()
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def get_sentiment_data(self, days=Config.SENTIMENT_DAYS, force_refresh=False):
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news_df = self.get_news(days, force_refresh)
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if news_df.empty or 'headline' not in news_df.columns:
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return None, None
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news_df['sentiment'] = news_df['headline'].apply(self.sentiment_analyzer.analyze)
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news_df['date'] = pd.to_datetime(news_df['datetime'].dt.date)
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daily = news_df.groupby('date').agg(
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avg_sentiment=('sentiment', 'mean'),
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article_count=('sentiment', 'count'),
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positive_count=('sentiment', lambda x: (x > 0.05).sum()),
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negative_count=('sentiment', lambda x: (x < -0.05).sum()),
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neutral_count=('sentiment', lambda x: ((x >= -0.05) & (x <= 0.05)).sum())
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).reset_index()
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return daily, news_df
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def create_sentiment_plot(daily_sentiment: pd.DataFrame, symbol: str) -> go.Figure:
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fig = make_subplots(rows=2, cols=1, shared_xaxes=True, row_heights=[0.7, 0.3])
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fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=daily_sentiment['date'], y=daily_sentiment['avg_sentiment'], name='Avg Sentiment', line=dict(color='#ff7f0e')), row=1, col=1)
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fig.add_trace(go.Bar(x=daily_sentiment['date'], y=daily_sentiment['positive_count'], name='Positive', marker_color='rgba(0,200,0,0.7)'), row=2, col=1)
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fig.add_trace(go.Bar(x=daily_sentiment['date'], y=daily_sentiment['negative_count'], name='Negative', marker_color='rgba(255,0,0,0.7)'), row=2, col=1)
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fig.add_trace(go.Bar(x=daily_sentiment['date'], y=daily_sentiment['neutral_count'], name='Neutral', marker_color='rgba(128,128,128,0.6)'), row=2, col=1)
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fig.update_layout(title=f"{symbol} News Sentiment (Last {Config.SENTIMENT_DAYS} Days)", template="plotly_dark", barmode='stack', height=500)
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return fig
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# ============================================================================
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# TECHNICAL & FORECASTING MODULES
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# ============================================================================
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def calculate_rsi(df):
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delta = df['Close'].diff()
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gain = (delta.where(delta > 0, 0)).rolling(14).mean()
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loss = (-delta.where(delta < 0, 0)).rolling(14).mean()
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rs = gain / loss
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return 100 - (100 / (1 + rs))
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def calculate_bollinger_bands(df):
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ma = df['Close'].rolling(20).mean()
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std = df['Close'].rolling(20).std()
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return ma, ma + 2*std, ma - 2*std
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def calculate_stochastic_oscillator(df):
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ll = df['Low'].rolling(14).min()
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hh = df['High'].rolling(14).max()
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k = ((df['Close'] - ll) / (hh - ll)) * 100
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d = k.rolling(3).mean()
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return k, d
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def calculate_cmf(df, window=20):
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price_range = df['High'] - df['Low']
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price_range = price_range.replace(0, np.nan)
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mfv = ((df['Close'] - df['Low']) - (df['High'] - df['Close'])) / price_range * df['Volume']
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mfv_sum = mfv.rolling(window).sum()
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vol_sum = df['Volume'].rolling(window).sum()
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return np.where(vol_sum > 0, mfv_sum / vol_sum, np.nan)
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def generate_signals(df):
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df = df.copy()
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return df
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def
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fig = go.Figure()
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fig.
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fig.
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if isinstance(df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
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df.columns = df.columns.droplevel(1)
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df = df.reset_index()[['Date', 'Close']].rename(columns={'Date': 'ds', 'Close': 'y'})
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df['ds'] = pd.to_datetime(df['ds'])
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df['unique_id'] = ticker
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tfm = timesfm.TimesFm(
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hparams=timesfm.TimesFmHparams(
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backend="pytorch",
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per_core_batch_size=32,
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horizon_len=30,
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input_patch_len=32,
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output_patch_len=128,
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num_layers=50,
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model_dims=1280,
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),
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checkpoint=timesfm.TimesFmCheckpoint(huggingface_repo_id="google/timesfm-2.0-500m-pytorch")
|
| 354 |
)
|
| 355 |
-
forecast_df = tfm.forecast_on_df(inputs=df, freq="D", value_name="y")
|
| 356 |
-
forecast_df.rename(columns={"timesfm": "forecast"}, inplace=True)
|
| 357 |
-
|
| 358 |
-
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 359 |
-
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=df["ds"], y=df["y"], mode="lines", name="Actual"))
|
| 360 |
-
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=forecast_df["ds"], y=forecast_df["forecast"], mode="lines", name="Forecast"))
|
| 361 |
-
fig.update_layout(title=f"{ticker} TimesFM Forecast", template="plotly_dark")
|
| 362 |
-
return fig
|
| 363 |
-
except Exception as e:
|
| 364 |
-
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 365 |
-
fig.add_annotation(text=f"TimesFM Error: {e}", x=0.5, y=0.5, xref="paper", yref="paper")
|
| 366 |
-
fig.update_layout(template="plotly_dark")
|
| 367 |
return fig
|
|
|
|
| 368 |
|
| 369 |
-
def
|
| 370 |
-
df =
|
| 371 |
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|
| 372 |
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 373 |
-
|
| 374 |
-
|
| 375 |
-
|
| 376 |
-
|
| 377 |
-
|
| 378 |
-
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|
| 379 |
return fig
|
| 380 |
|
| 381 |
-
#
|
| 382 |
-
#
|
| 383 |
-
#
|
| 384 |
-
async def run_unified_analysis(
|
| 385 |
-
tickers_str: str,
|
| 386 |
-
start_date: str,
|
| 387 |
-
end_date: str,
|
| 388 |
-
days_sentiment: int,
|
| 389 |
-
refresh_news: bool,
|
| 390 |
-
growth_w: float,
|
| 391 |
-
value_w: float,
|
| 392 |
-
risk_w: float
|
| 393 |
-
):
|
| 394 |
-
tickers = [t.strip().upper() for t in tickers_str.split(",") if t.strip()][:5]
|
| 395 |
-
if not tickers:
|
| 396 |
-
empty = go.Figure()
|
| 397 |
-
empty.add_annotation(text="Enter tickers", x=0.5, y=0.5, xref="paper", yref="paper")
|
| 398 |
-
return ("No tickers",) + (empty,) * 8 + (pd.DataFrame(), pd.DataFrame())
|
| 399 |
-
|
| 400 |
-
primary = tickers[0]
|
| 401 |
-
|
| 402 |
-
# Fundamentals
|
| 403 |
-
scores_df, metrics_df = pd.DataFrame(), pd.DataFrame()
|
| 404 |
-
try:
|
| 405 |
-
fund_data = await fetch_data_concurrently(tickers)
|
| 406 |
-
if fund_data:
|
| 407 |
-
df = pd.DataFrame(fund_data)
|
| 408 |
-
df = sanitize_financial_data(df)
|
| 409 |
-
numerical_cols = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns
|
| 410 |
-
for col in numerical_cols:
|
| 411 |
-
df[col] = df[col].fillna(df[col].median() if not pd.isna(df[col].median()) else 0)
|
| 412 |
-
df = calculate_scores(df, growth_w, value_w, risk_w)
|
| 413 |
-
df = df.sort_values('Total_Score', ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
|
| 414 |
-
scores_df = df[['Ticker', 'Total_Score', 'Growth_Score', 'Value_Score', 'No_Risk_Score']].round(2)
|
| 415 |
-
metrics_df = create_metrics_table(df)
|
| 416 |
-
except Exception as e:
|
| 417 |
-
logger.error(f"Fundamentals error: {e}")
|
| 418 |
-
|
| 419 |
-
# Sentiment
|
| 420 |
-
sentiment_plot = go.Figure()
|
| 421 |
-
try:
|
| 422 |
-
analyzer = StockNewsAnalyzer(primary)
|
| 423 |
-
daily_sent, _ = analyzer.get_sentiment_data(days=days_sentiment, force_refresh=refresh_news)
|
| 424 |
-
if daily_sent is not None:
|
| 425 |
-
sentiment_plot = create_sentiment_plot(daily_sent, primary)
|
| 426 |
-
except Exception as e:
|
| 427 |
-
logger.error(f"Sentiment error: {e}")
|
| 428 |
-
|
| 429 |
-
# Technicals
|
| 430 |
-
tech_plot = go.Figure()
|
| 431 |
-
try:
|
| 432 |
-
tech_df = yf.download(primary, start=start_date, end=end_date)
|
| 433 |
-
if not tech_df.empty:
|
| 434 |
-
if isinstance(tech_df.columns, pd.MultiIndex):
|
| 435 |
-
tech_df.columns = tech_df.columns.droplevel(1)
|
| 436 |
-
tech_plot = plot_technical_signals(tech_df, primary)
|
| 437 |
-
except Exception as e:
|
| 438 |
-
logger.error(f"Technical error: {e}")
|
| 439 |
-
|
| 440 |
-
# Forecasting
|
| 441 |
-
prophet_price, prophet_forecast = prophet_forecast(primary, start_date, end_date)
|
| 442 |
-
timesfm_plot = timesfm_forecast(primary, start_date, end_date)
|
| 443 |
-
|
| 444 |
-
return (
|
| 445 |
-
f"Analysis for: {', '.join(tickers)}",
|
| 446 |
-
scores_df,
|
| 447 |
-
metrics_df,
|
| 448 |
-
sentiment_plot,
|
| 449 |
-
tech_plot,
|
| 450 |
-
timesfm_plot,
|
| 451 |
-
prophet_price,
|
| 452 |
-
prophet_forecast
|
| 453 |
-
)
|
| 454 |
-
|
| 455 |
-
# ============================================================================
|
| 456 |
-
# GRADIO INTERFACE
|
| 457 |
-
# ============================================================================
|
| 458 |
-
with gr.Blocks(theme=gr.themes.Soft()) as demo:
|
| 459 |
-
gr.Markdown("# 🚀 Unified Stock Intelligence Platform")
|
| 460 |
-
gr.Markdown("Fundamentals + Sentiment + Technicals + AI Forecasting")
|
| 461 |
-
|
| 462 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 463 |
-
tickers = gr.Textbox(label="Tickers (comma-separated)", value="NVDA, AAPL, MSFT")
|
| 464 |
-
start_date = gr.Textbox(label="Start Date", value="2022-01-01")
|
| 465 |
-
end_date = gr.Textbox(label="End Date", value="2026-01-01")
|
| 466 |
-
|
| 467 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 468 |
-
days_sentiment = gr.Slider(7, 90, value=90, label="Sentiment Days")
|
| 469 |
-
refresh_news = gr.Checkbox(label="Refresh News", value=False)
|
| 470 |
-
growth_w = gr.Slider(0, 1, 0.4, label="Growth Weight")
|
| 471 |
-
value_w = gr.Slider(0, 1, 0.4, label="Value Weight")
|
| 472 |
-
risk_w = gr.Slider(0, 1, 0.2, label="Risk Weight")
|
| 473 |
-
|
| 474 |
-
run_btn = gr.Button("Analyze", variant="primary")
|
| 475 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 476 |
with gr.Tabs():
|
| 477 |
-
with gr.Tab("
|
| 478 |
-
|
| 479 |
-
|
| 480 |
-
|
| 481 |
-
|
| 482 |
-
|
| 483 |
-
|
| 484 |
-
|
| 485 |
-
|
| 486 |
-
|
| 487 |
-
|
| 488 |
-
|
| 489 |
-
|
| 490 |
-
|
| 491 |
-
|
| 492 |
-
|
| 493 |
-
|
| 494 |
-
|
| 495 |
-
|
| 496 |
-
|
| 497 |
-
gr.Textbox(
|
| 498 |
-
|
| 499 |
-
|
| 500 |
-
|
| 501 |
-
timesfm_plot,
|
| 502 |
-
prophet_price,
|
| 503 |
-
prophet_forecast
|
| 504 |
-
]
|
| 505 |
-
)
|
| 506 |
|
| 507 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 508 |
demo.launch()
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
+
# app.py
|
| 2 |
+
import gradio as gr
|
| 3 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 4 |
import numpy as np
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 5 |
import plotly.express as px
|
| 6 |
+
import plotly.graph_objects as go
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 8 |
|
| 9 |
+
# Import your data engine
|
| 10 |
+
from geo_macro import UnifiedMarketDataDownloader, FRED_API_KEY
|
| 11 |
|
| 12 |
+
# ======================
|
| 13 |
+
# DATA LOADING & CACHING
|
| 14 |
+
# ======================
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 15 |
|
| 16 |
+
@gr.cache
|
| 17 |
+
def load_or_download_data():
|
| 18 |
+
"""
|
| 19 |
+
Load from CSV if exists, else download fresh data.
|
| 20 |
+
"""
|
| 21 |
+
data_file = "unified_market_data.csv"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 22 |
try:
|
| 23 |
+
df = pd.read_csv(data_file, index_col=0, parse_dates=True)
|
| 24 |
+
print("✅ Loaded data from CSV")
|
| 25 |
+
except FileNotFoundError:
|
| 26 |
+
print("🔄 CSV not found. Downloading fresh data...")
|
| 27 |
+
downloader = UnifiedMarketDataDownloader(fred_api_key=FRED_API_KEY)
|
| 28 |
+
df = downloader.download_all_data(start_date='2018-01-01')
|
| 29 |
+
df.to_csv(data_file)
|
| 30 |
+
print(f"💾 Saved to {data_file}")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 31 |
return df
|
| 32 |
|
| 33 |
+
# ======================
|
| 34 |
+
# FEATURE ENGINEERING
|
| 35 |
+
# ======================
|
| 36 |
+
|
| 37 |
+
def add_thematic_features(df):
|
| 38 |
+
THEMES = {
|
| 39 |
+
"AI & Datacenters": ["XLK", "SMH", "SKYY", "BOTZ", "FINX"],
|
| 40 |
+
"Defense & Security": ["ITA", "XAR", "HACK", "URA", "Aerospace_Defense"],
|
| 41 |
+
"Nuclear Renaissance": ["URA", "XLE", "Utilities"],
|
| 42 |
+
"China Stress": ["KWEB", "FXI", "CNY=X"],
|
| 43 |
+
"Commodity Inflation": ["DBA", "DBB", "Oil", "Copper", "Gold"],
|
| 44 |
+
"Gold & Safe Havens": ["GLD", "TLT", "JPY=X", "CHF=X", "Gold"],
|
| 45 |
+
"Early Cycle": ["IWN", "XHB", "Staffing", "Small_Cap_Value"],
|
| 46 |
+
"Late Cycle": ["VYM", "XLU", "Consumer_Staples", "High_Dividend"],
|
| 47 |
+
"Credit Stress": ["EMB", "HYG", "BKLN", "JNK", "Preferred_Stock"],
|
| 48 |
+
"Liquidity Conditions": ["M2", "WALCL", "Short_Term_Treasuries"]
|
| 49 |
+
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
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|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 50 |
|
|
|
|
| 51 |
df = df.copy()
|
| 52 |
+
for name, assets in THEMES.items():
|
| 53 |
+
available = [a for a in assets if a in df.columns]
|
| 54 |
+
if available:
|
| 55 |
+
# Equal-weight momentum
|
| 56 |
+
mom = df[available].pct_change().mean(axis=1)
|
| 57 |
+
df[f"{name}_Momentum"] = mom.rolling(60).sum()
|
| 58 |
+
# Z-score over 2 years
|
| 59 |
+
mean = df[f"{name}_Momentum"].rolling(500, min_periods=100).mean()
|
| 60 |
+
std = df[f"{name}_Momentum"].rolling(500, min_periods=100).std()
|
| 61 |
+
df[f"{name}_Z"] = (df[f"{name}_Momentum"] - mean) / std
|
| 62 |
+
else:
|
| 63 |
+
df[f"{name}_Z"] = np.nan
|
| 64 |
return df
|
| 65 |
|
| 66 |
+
# ======================
|
| 67 |
+
# PLOT FUNCTIONS (same as before, but use cached data)
|
| 68 |
+
# ======================
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
SHOCK_EVENTS = {
|
| 71 |
+
"2020-03-16 (Pandemic Crash)": "2020-03-16",
|
| 72 |
+
"2022-02-24 (Ukraine Invasion)": "2022-02-24",
|
| 73 |
+
"2023-03-10 (SVB Collapse)": "2023-03-10",
|
| 74 |
+
"2024-01-15 (Debt Ceiling)": "2024-01-15",
|
| 75 |
+
"2025-04-01 (Middle East Escalation)": "2025-04-01"
|
| 76 |
+
}
|
| 77 |
+
|
| 78 |
+
def get_processed_data():
|
| 79 |
+
df = load_or_download_data()
|
| 80 |
+
return add_thematic_features(df)
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
def plot_regime_dashboard(start_date, end_date):
|
| 83 |
+
df = get_processed_data()
|
| 84 |
+
df = df[(df.index >= pd.to_datetime(start_date)) & (df.index <= pd.to_datetime(end_date))]
|
| 85 |
+
|
| 86 |
+
z_cols = [col for col in df.columns if col.endswith('_Z')]
|
| 87 |
+
if not z_cols:
|
| 88 |
+
return go.Figure()
|
| 89 |
+
|
| 90 |
+
clean_names = [col.replace('_Z', '').replace('_', ' ') for col in z_cols]
|
| 91 |
+
heatmap_data = df[z_cols].fillna(0)
|
| 92 |
+
|
| 93 |
+
fig = go.Figure(data=go.Heatmap(
|
| 94 |
+
z=heatmap_data.T.values,
|
| 95 |
+
x=heatmap_data.index,
|
| 96 |
+
y=clean_names,
|
| 97 |
+
colorscale='RdBu',
|
| 98 |
+
zmid=0
|
| 99 |
+
))
|
| 100 |
+
fig.update_layout(title="🌍 Thematic Regime Heatmap", height=500)
|
| 101 |
+
return fig
|
| 102 |
|
| 103 |
+
def plot_thematic_pulse(start_date, end_date):
|
| 104 |
+
df = get_processed_data()
|
| 105 |
+
df = df[(df.index >= pd.to_datetime(start_date)) & (df.index <= pd.to_datetime(end_date))]
|
| 106 |
+
|
| 107 |
+
z_cols = [f"{name}_Z" for name in [
|
| 108 |
+
"AI & Datacenters", "Defense & Security", "Nuclear Renaissance",
|
| 109 |
+
"China Stress", "Commodity Inflation", "Gold & Safe Havens",
|
| 110 |
+
"Early Cycle", "Late Cycle", "Credit Stress", "Liquidity Conditions"
|
| 111 |
+
] if f"{name}_Z" in df.columns]
|
| 112 |
+
|
| 113 |
+
if not z_cols:
|
| 114 |
+
return go.Figure()
|
| 115 |
+
|
| 116 |
+
latest = df[z_cols].iloc[-1].dropna()
|
| 117 |
+
clean_names = [col.replace('_Z', '').replace('_', ' ') for col in latest.index]
|
| 118 |
+
latest.index = clean_names
|
| 119 |
+
|
| 120 |
+
colors = ['red' if x < -1.5 else 'green' if x > 1.5 else 'lightgray' for x in latest]
|
| 121 |
+
fig = go.Figure(go.Bar(x=latest.values, y=latest.index, orientation='h', marker_color=colors))
|
| 122 |
+
fig.update_layout(title="🔥 Thematic Pulse", height=500)
|
| 123 |
+
return fig
|
| 124 |
|
| 125 |
+
def plot_divergence(start_date, end_date):
|
| 126 |
+
df = get_processed_data()
|
| 127 |
+
df = df[(df.index >= pd.to_datetime(start_date)) & (df.index <= pd.to_datetime(end_date))]
|
| 128 |
+
|
| 129 |
+
if 'KWEB' in df.columns and 'SMH' in df.columns:
|
| 130 |
+
ratio = df['KWEB'] / df['SMH']
|
| 131 |
+
ratio_norm = (ratio - ratio.rolling(200).mean()) / ratio.rolling(200).std()
|
| 132 |
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 133 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=ratio.index, y=ratio, name='KWEB/SMH'))
|
| 134 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=ratio_norm.index, y=ratio_norm, name='Z-Score', yaxis='y2'))
|
| 135 |
+
fig.update_layout(
|
| 136 |
+
title="🔄 China Tech vs Global Semis",
|
| 137 |
+
yaxis2=dict(overlaying='y', side='right')
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| 138 |
)
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|
| 139 |
return fig
|
| 140 |
+
return go.Figure()
|
| 141 |
|
| 142 |
+
def plot_shock_response(event_name, custom_date=None):
|
| 143 |
+
df = get_processed_data()
|
| 144 |
+
|
| 145 |
+
if event_name != "Custom Date":
|
| 146 |
+
event_date = pd.to_datetime(SHOCK_EVENTS[event_name])
|
| 147 |
+
else:
|
| 148 |
+
if not custom_date:
|
| 149 |
+
return go.Figure()
|
| 150 |
+
event_date = pd.to_datetime(custom_date)
|
| 151 |
+
|
| 152 |
+
window = 30
|
| 153 |
+
start = event_date - timedelta(days=window)
|
| 154 |
+
end = event_date + timedelta(days=window)
|
| 155 |
+
df_win = df[(df.index >= start) & (df.index <= end)]
|
| 156 |
+
|
| 157 |
+
if df_win.empty:
|
| 158 |
+
return go.Figure()
|
| 159 |
+
|
| 160 |
+
assets = ['SP500', 'Gold', 'TLT', 'VIX', 'Oil', 'KWEB', 'SMH', 'ITA']
|
| 161 |
fig = go.Figure()
|
| 162 |
+
event_idx = df_win.index.get_indexer([event_date], method='nearest')[0]
|
| 163 |
+
|
| 164 |
+
for asset in assets:
|
| 165 |
+
if asset in df_win.columns:
|
| 166 |
+
prices = df_win[asset].dropna()
|
| 167 |
+
if len(prices) > 5:
|
| 168 |
+
norm = (prices / prices.iloc[event_idx]) * 100
|
| 169 |
+
fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=norm.index, y=norm, mode='lines', name=asset))
|
| 170 |
+
|
| 171 |
+
fig.add_vline(x=event_date, line_dash="dash", line_color="red")
|
| 172 |
+
fig.update_layout(title=f"📅 Shock: {event_name}", yaxis_title="Normalized to 100")
|
| 173 |
return fig
|
| 174 |
|
| 175 |
+
# ======================
|
| 176 |
+
# GRADIO UI
|
| 177 |
+
# ======================
|
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|
|
| 178 |
|
| 179 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Macro-Thematic Intelligence") as demo:
|
| 180 |
+
gr.Markdown("## 🌐 Top-Down Thematic Intelligence Platform")
|
| 181 |
+
|
| 182 |
with gr.Tabs():
|
| 183 |
+
with gr.Tab("🌍 Regime Dashboard"):
|
| 184 |
+
s1 = gr.Textbox("2022-01-01", label="Start")
|
| 185 |
+
e1 = gr.Textbox(datetime.today().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), label="End")
|
| 186 |
+
p1 = gr.Plot()
|
| 187 |
+
gr.Button("Update").click(plot_regime_dashboard, [s1, e1], p1)
|
| 188 |
+
|
| 189 |
+
with gr.Tab("🔥 Thematic Pulse"):
|
| 190 |
+
s2 = gr.Textbox("2022-01-01", label="Start")
|
| 191 |
+
e2 = gr.Textbox(datetime.today().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), label="End")
|
| 192 |
+
p2 = gr.Plot()
|
| 193 |
+
gr.Button("Update").click(plot_thematic_pulse, [s2, e2], p2)
|
| 194 |
+
|
| 195 |
+
with gr.Tab("🔄 Divergence"):
|
| 196 |
+
s3 = gr.Textbox("2022-01-01", label="Start")
|
| 197 |
+
e3 = gr.Textbox(datetime.today().strftime('%Y-%m-%d'), label="End")
|
| 198 |
+
p3 = gr.Plot()
|
| 199 |
+
gr.Button("Update").click(plot_divergence, [s3, e3], p3)
|
| 200 |
+
|
| 201 |
+
with gr.Tab("📅 Shock Explorer"):
|
| 202 |
+
evt = gr.Dropdown(list(SHOCK_EVENTS.keys()) + ["Custom Date"], value=list(SHOCK_EVENTS.keys())[0])
|
| 203 |
+
cdt = gr.Textbox("", visible=False)
|
| 204 |
+
evt.change(lambda x: gr.update(visible=x=="Custom Date"), evt, cdt)
|
| 205 |
+
p4 = gr.Plot()
|
| 206 |
+
gr.Button("Plot").click(plot_shock_response, [evt, cdt], p4)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 207 |
|
| 208 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 209 |
demo.launch()
|