Upload gnn_it_sector_timeseries.py
Browse files- gnn_it_sector_timeseries.py +710 -0
gnn_it_sector_timeseries.py
ADDED
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@@ -0,0 +1,710 @@
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| 1 |
+
import os
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| 2 |
+
from typing import Tuple, List
|
| 3 |
+
|
| 4 |
+
import numpy as np
|
| 5 |
+
import pandas as pd
|
| 6 |
+
import torch
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| 7 |
+
from torch import nn
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| 8 |
+
from torch_geometric.data import Data, DataLoader
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| 9 |
+
from torch_geometric.nn import GCNConv
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| 10 |
+
from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
|
| 11 |
+
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, mean_absolute_error
|
| 12 |
+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 13 |
+
import datetime as dt
|
| 14 |
+
import time
|
| 15 |
+
|
| 16 |
+
|
| 17 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 18 |
+
# 1. Data loading and preprocessing
|
| 19 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 20 |
+
|
| 21 |
+
def load_it_sector_data_from_csvs(
|
| 22 |
+
infy_csv: str,
|
| 23 |
+
tcs_csv: str,
|
| 24 |
+
nifty_it_csv: str,
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| 25 |
+
) -> Tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray, List[pd.Timestamp], List[str]]:
|
| 26 |
+
"""Load IT sector data from separate CSV files and build cleaned feature + target tensors.
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
Methodology alignment
|
| 29 |
+
---------------------
|
| 30 |
+
- Data Collection: uses OHLCV-style fields from the NSE IT sector file.
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| 31 |
+
- Preprocessing / Cleaning:
|
| 32 |
+
* Parse dates and sort.
|
| 33 |
+
* Filter to equity series (EQ).
|
| 34 |
+
* Remove duplicates and rows with missing / invalid key values.
|
| 35 |
+
* Filter out non-trading days (zero / negative volume).
|
| 36 |
+
* Forward-fill remaining gaps.
|
| 37 |
+
- Derived Indicators:
|
| 38 |
+
* Daily returns.
|
| 39 |
+
* 5-day moving average of close.
|
| 40 |
+
* 20-day rolling volatility of returns.
|
| 41 |
+
|
| 42 |
+
Returns
|
| 43 |
+
-------
|
| 44 |
+
features : np.ndarray
|
| 45 |
+
Shape [num_dates, num_companies, num_features].
|
| 46 |
+
Features per company per day include normalized price/volume and indicators.
|
| 47 |
+
targets : np.ndarray
|
| 48 |
+
Shape [num_dates, num_companies]. Daily returns per company (prediction target).
|
| 49 |
+
dates : list of pd.Timestamp
|
| 50 |
+
Trading dates.
|
| 51 |
+
companies : list of str
|
| 52 |
+
List of company tickers (node names in the graph).
|
| 53 |
+
"""
|
| 54 |
+
# ---------------------------------
|
| 55 |
+
# Load individual CSVs
|
| 56 |
+
# ---------------------------------
|
| 57 |
+
infy_df = pd.read_csv(infy_csv)
|
| 58 |
+
tcs_df = pd.read_csv(tcs_csv)
|
| 59 |
+
index_df = pd.read_csv(nifty_it_csv)
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
# Add a Company identifier manually
|
| 62 |
+
infy_df["Company"] = "INFY"
|
| 63 |
+
tcs_df["Company"] = "TCS"
|
| 64 |
+
index_df["Company"] = "NIFTY_IT"
|
| 65 |
+
|
| 66 |
+
# Harmonize columns where needed for the index
|
| 67 |
+
# Ensure required OHLCV columns exist (use Close/Volume, ignore others if missing)
|
| 68 |
+
for df in [infy_df, tcs_df, index_df]:
|
| 69 |
+
df["Date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["Date"])
|
| 70 |
+
|
| 71 |
+
# For the index, mimic equity-style columns for compatibility
|
| 72 |
+
if "Series" not in index_df.columns:
|
| 73 |
+
index_df["Series"] = "EQ"
|
| 74 |
+
if "Close" not in index_df.columns and "Close" in index_df.columns:
|
| 75 |
+
# Already present; this branch is just a safety net
|
| 76 |
+
pass
|
| 77 |
+
if "Volume" not in index_df.columns and "Volume" in index_df.columns:
|
| 78 |
+
# Already present; just a safety net
|
| 79 |
+
pass
|
| 80 |
+
|
| 81 |
+
# Unify columns to a common subset
|
| 82 |
+
common_cols = [
|
| 83 |
+
"Date",
|
| 84 |
+
"Company",
|
| 85 |
+
"Series",
|
| 86 |
+
"Open",
|
| 87 |
+
"High",
|
| 88 |
+
"Low",
|
| 89 |
+
"Close",
|
| 90 |
+
"Volume",
|
| 91 |
+
]
|
| 92 |
+
|
| 93 |
+
# For stock CSVs, ensure the above columns are present
|
| 94 |
+
for stock_df in [infy_df, tcs_df]:
|
| 95 |
+
# They already have Symbol, Series, Prev Close, Open, High, Low, Last, Close, VWAP, Volume, ...
|
| 96 |
+
# We just keep the columns we need and drop the rest later.
|
| 97 |
+
pass
|
| 98 |
+
|
| 99 |
+
# For index, keep only the needed OHLCV columns and Series/Company
|
| 100 |
+
index_df = index_df[["Date", "Open", "High", "Low", "Close", "Volume", "Company", "Series"]]
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
# Make sure column order matches common_cols
|
| 103 |
+
index_df = index_df[["Date", "Company", "Series", "Open", "High", "Low", "Close", "Volume"]]
|
| 104 |
+
|
| 105 |
+
# Align stock DataFrames to the same schema
|
| 106 |
+
infy_df = infy_df[["Date", "Company", "Series", "Open", "High", "Low", "Close", "Volume"]]
|
| 107 |
+
tcs_df = tcs_df[["Date", "Company", "Series", "Open", "High", "Low", "Close", "Volume"]]
|
| 108 |
+
|
| 109 |
+
# Concatenate all into one panel-like table
|
| 110 |
+
df = pd.concat([infy_df, tcs_df, index_df], ignore_index=True)
|
| 111 |
+
|
| 112 |
+
# -------------------------
|
| 113 |
+
# Basic cleaning steps
|
| 114 |
+
# -------------------------
|
| 115 |
+
# Ensure proper dtypes and ordering
|
| 116 |
+
df["Date"] = pd.to_datetime(df["Date"])
|
| 117 |
+
|
| 118 |
+
# Keep only equity series
|
| 119 |
+
if "Series" in df.columns:
|
| 120 |
+
df = df[df["Series"] == "EQ"]
|
| 121 |
+
|
| 122 |
+
# Drop rows with critical missing values
|
| 123 |
+
df = df.dropna(subset=["Company", "Close", "Volume", "Open", "High", "Low"])
|
| 124 |
+
|
| 125 |
+
# Remove zero / negative volume (non-trading or bad records)
|
| 126 |
+
df = df[df["Volume"] > 0]
|
| 127 |
+
|
| 128 |
+
# Drop exact duplicates on (Date, Company)
|
| 129 |
+
df = df.drop_duplicates(subset=["Date", "Company"])
|
| 130 |
+
|
| 131 |
+
# Sort by date then company
|
| 132 |
+
df = df.sort_values(["Date", "Company"])
|
| 133 |
+
|
| 134 |
+
# Use the "Company" column as canonical ticker (INFY, TCS, HCLTECH, TECHM, WIPRO, ...)
|
| 135 |
+
companies = sorted(df["Company"].unique().tolist())
|
| 136 |
+
|
| 137 |
+
# Pivot to Date x Company for OHLCV-like data
|
| 138 |
+
close = df.pivot_table(index="Date", columns="Company", values="Close")
|
| 139 |
+
volume = df.pivot_table(index="Date", columns="Company", values="Volume")
|
| 140 |
+
|
| 141 |
+
# Ensure consistent column order
|
| 142 |
+
close = close[companies]
|
| 143 |
+
volume = volume[companies]
|
| 144 |
+
|
| 145 |
+
# Forward-fill missing values along time for each company
|
| 146 |
+
close = close.ffill()
|
| 147 |
+
volume = volume.ffill()
|
| 148 |
+
|
| 149 |
+
# -------------------------
|
| 150 |
+
# Derived indicators
|
| 151 |
+
# -------------------------
|
| 152 |
+
# 1-day simple returns (percentage change)
|
| 153 |
+
returns = close.pct_change().replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).fillna(0.0)
|
| 154 |
+
|
| 155 |
+
# 5-day moving average of closing price (trend)
|
| 156 |
+
ma5 = close.rolling(window=5, min_periods=1).mean().ffill()
|
| 157 |
+
|
| 158 |
+
# 20-day rolling volatility of returns (risk)
|
| 159 |
+
vol20 = (
|
| 160 |
+
returns.rolling(window=20, min_periods=1)
|
| 161 |
+
.std()
|
| 162 |
+
.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan)
|
| 163 |
+
.fillna(0.0)
|
| 164 |
+
.ffill()
|
| 165 |
+
)
|
| 166 |
+
|
| 167 |
+
# -------------------------
|
| 168 |
+
# Normalization per company
|
| 169 |
+
# -------------------------
|
| 170 |
+
scaler_close = StandardScaler()
|
| 171 |
+
scaler_vol = StandardScaler()
|
| 172 |
+
scaler_ma5 = StandardScaler()
|
| 173 |
+
scaler_vol20 = StandardScaler()
|
| 174 |
+
|
| 175 |
+
close_scaled = pd.DataFrame(
|
| 176 |
+
scaler_close.fit_transform(close.values),
|
| 177 |
+
index=close.index,
|
| 178 |
+
columns=close.columns,
|
| 179 |
+
)
|
| 180 |
+
volume_scaled = pd.DataFrame(
|
| 181 |
+
scaler_vol.fit_transform(volume.values),
|
| 182 |
+
index=volume.index,
|
| 183 |
+
columns=volume.columns,
|
| 184 |
+
)
|
| 185 |
+
ma5_scaled = pd.DataFrame(
|
| 186 |
+
scaler_ma5.fit_transform(ma5.values),
|
| 187 |
+
index=ma5.index,
|
| 188 |
+
columns=ma5.columns,
|
| 189 |
+
)
|
| 190 |
+
vol20_scaled = pd.DataFrame(
|
| 191 |
+
scaler_vol20.fit_transform(vol20.values),
|
| 192 |
+
index=vol20.index,
|
| 193 |
+
columns=vol20.columns,
|
| 194 |
+
)
|
| 195 |
+
|
| 196 |
+
dates = close.index.to_list()
|
| 197 |
+
num_dates = len(dates)
|
| 198 |
+
num_companies = len(companies)
|
| 199 |
+
|
| 200 |
+
# Features per node per day:
|
| 201 |
+
# [normalized close, normalized volume, raw return, normalized MA5, normalized VOL20]
|
| 202 |
+
num_features = 5
|
| 203 |
+
features = np.zeros((num_dates, num_companies, num_features), dtype=np.float32)
|
| 204 |
+
|
| 205 |
+
for j, c in enumerate(companies):
|
| 206 |
+
features[:, j, 0] = close_scaled[c].values
|
| 207 |
+
features[:, j, 1] = volume_scaled[c].values
|
| 208 |
+
features[:, j, 2] = returns[c].values
|
| 209 |
+
features[:, j, 3] = ma5_scaled[c].values
|
| 210 |
+
features[:, j, 4] = vol20_scaled[c].values
|
| 211 |
+
|
| 212 |
+
targets = returns.values.astype(np.float32) # predict daily returns
|
| 213 |
+
|
| 214 |
+
return features, targets, dates, companies
|
| 215 |
+
|
| 216 |
+
|
| 217 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 218 |
+
# 2. Graph construction (correlation-based)
|
| 219 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 220 |
+
|
| 221 |
+
def build_correlation_graph(returns: np.ndarray, threshold: float = 0.2) -> torch.Tensor:
|
| 222 |
+
"""Build an undirected graph of companies based on return correlations.
|
| 223 |
+
|
| 224 |
+
Parameters
|
| 225 |
+
----------
|
| 226 |
+
returns : np.ndarray
|
| 227 |
+
Array of shape [num_dates, num_companies] with daily returns.
|
| 228 |
+
threshold : float
|
| 229 |
+
Minimum absolute correlation to create an edge.
|
| 230 |
+
|
| 231 |
+
Returns
|
| 232 |
+
-------
|
| 233 |
+
edge_index : torch.Tensor
|
| 234 |
+
Tensor of shape [2, num_edges] in COO format for PyTorch Geometric.
|
| 235 |
+
"""
|
| 236 |
+
# Correlation across companies
|
| 237 |
+
corr = np.corrcoef(returns.T) # [num_companies, num_companies]
|
| 238 |
+
num_nodes = corr.shape[0]
|
| 239 |
+
|
| 240 |
+
edge_index_list = []
|
| 241 |
+
for i in range(num_nodes):
|
| 242 |
+
for j in range(num_nodes):
|
| 243 |
+
if i == j:
|
| 244 |
+
continue
|
| 245 |
+
if np.abs(corr[i, j]) >= threshold:
|
| 246 |
+
edge_index_list.append([i, j])
|
| 247 |
+
|
| 248 |
+
# Fallback: fully-connected graph (without self-loops) if threshold is too high
|
| 249 |
+
if len(edge_index_list) == 0:
|
| 250 |
+
for i in range(num_nodes):
|
| 251 |
+
for j in range(num_nodes):
|
| 252 |
+
if i != j:
|
| 253 |
+
edge_index_list.append([i, j])
|
| 254 |
+
|
| 255 |
+
edge_index = torch.tensor(edge_index_list, dtype=torch.long).t().contiguous()
|
| 256 |
+
return edge_index
|
| 257 |
+
|
| 258 |
+
|
| 259 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 260 |
+
# 3. Dataset for time-windowed graph snapshots
|
| 261 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 262 |
+
|
| 263 |
+
|
| 264 |
+
class TimeSeriesGraphDataset(torch.utils.data.Dataset):
|
| 265 |
+
"""Dataset that converts time series into windowed graph snapshots for GNNs.
|
| 266 |
+
|
| 267 |
+
Each item is a Data object with:
|
| 268 |
+
- x: node features [num_nodes, window_size * num_features]
|
| 269 |
+
- edge_index: static company correlation graph
|
| 270 |
+
- y: target returns [num_nodes]
|
| 271 |
+
"""
|
| 272 |
+
|
| 273 |
+
def __init__(
|
| 274 |
+
self,
|
| 275 |
+
features: np.ndarray,
|
| 276 |
+
targets: np.ndarray,
|
| 277 |
+
edge_index: torch.Tensor,
|
| 278 |
+
window_size: int,
|
| 279 |
+
start_t: int,
|
| 280 |
+
end_t: int,
|
| 281 |
+
) -> None:
|
| 282 |
+
super().__init__()
|
| 283 |
+
self.features = features
|
| 284 |
+
self.targets = targets
|
| 285 |
+
self.edge_index = edge_index
|
| 286 |
+
self.window_size = window_size
|
| 287 |
+
self.start_t = start_t
|
| 288 |
+
self.end_t = end_t
|
| 289 |
+
|
| 290 |
+
def __len__(self) -> int:
|
| 291 |
+
return self.end_t - self.start_t
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
def __getitem__(self, idx: int) -> Data:
|
| 294 |
+
t = self.start_t + idx
|
| 295 |
+
# Use previous `window_size` days to predict returns at day t
|
| 296 |
+
window_feats = self.features[t - self.window_size : t] # [W, N, F]
|
| 297 |
+
window, num_nodes, num_feat = window_feats.shape
|
| 298 |
+
|
| 299 |
+
# Keep the temporal dimension for LSTM-based encoding.
|
| 300 |
+
# Shape: [num_nodes, window, num_feat]
|
| 301 |
+
x_seq = window_feats.transpose(1, 0, 2)
|
| 302 |
+
y = self.targets[t] # [num_nodes]
|
| 303 |
+
|
| 304 |
+
data = Data(
|
| 305 |
+
x=torch.from_numpy(x_seq), # [num_nodes, window, num_feat]
|
| 306 |
+
edge_index=self.edge_index,
|
| 307 |
+
y=torch.from_numpy(y),
|
| 308 |
+
)
|
| 309 |
+
return data
|
| 310 |
+
|
| 311 |
+
|
| 312 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 313 |
+
# 4. GNN model definition (GCN for regression)
|
| 314 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 315 |
+
|
| 316 |
+
|
| 317 |
+
class GNNTimeSeriesModel(nn.Module):
|
| 318 |
+
"""LSTM + GCN hybrid for multi-node time-series regression.
|
| 319 |
+
|
| 320 |
+
Methodology alignment
|
| 321 |
+
---------------------
|
| 322 |
+
- Temporal Feature Extraction: shared LSTM encodes each stock's past W days.
|
| 323 |
+
- GNN Application: GCN layers propagate information over the inter-stock graph.
|
| 324 |
+
- Prediction: per-node regression head outputs next-day return.
|
| 325 |
+
"""
|
| 326 |
+
|
| 327 |
+
def __init__(
|
| 328 |
+
self,
|
| 329 |
+
window_size: int,
|
| 330 |
+
num_features: int,
|
| 331 |
+
hidden_lstm: int = 64,
|
| 332 |
+
hidden_gnn: int = 64,
|
| 333 |
+
dropout: float = 0.2,
|
| 334 |
+
) -> None:
|
| 335 |
+
super().__init__()
|
| 336 |
+
self.window_size = window_size
|
| 337 |
+
self.num_features = num_features
|
| 338 |
+
|
| 339 |
+
# Temporal encoder: LSTM over W x F for each stock
|
| 340 |
+
self.lstm = nn.LSTM(
|
| 341 |
+
input_size=num_features,
|
| 342 |
+
hidden_size=hidden_lstm,
|
| 343 |
+
num_layers=1,
|
| 344 |
+
batch_first=False, # we will feed [W, N, F]
|
| 345 |
+
)
|
| 346 |
+
|
| 347 |
+
# Graph convolution layers operating on LSTM embeddings
|
| 348 |
+
self.conv1 = GCNConv(hidden_lstm, hidden_gnn)
|
| 349 |
+
self.conv2 = GCNConv(hidden_gnn, hidden_gnn)
|
| 350 |
+
self.lin = nn.Linear(hidden_gnn, 1)
|
| 351 |
+
self.dropout = nn.Dropout(dropout)
|
| 352 |
+
|
| 353 |
+
def forward(self, x: torch.Tensor, edge_index: torch.Tensor) -> torch.Tensor:
|
| 354 |
+
"""Forward pass.
|
| 355 |
+
|
| 356 |
+
Parameters
|
| 357 |
+
----------
|
| 358 |
+
x : torch.Tensor
|
| 359 |
+
Shape [num_nodes_total_in_batch, window, num_features].
|
| 360 |
+
edge_index : torch.Tensor
|
| 361 |
+
Graph edges for the batched graph.
|
| 362 |
+
"""
|
| 363 |
+
# -----------------------------
|
| 364 |
+
# Temporal feature extraction
|
| 365 |
+
# -----------------------------
|
| 366 |
+
# x_seq: [num_nodes_total, window, num_features]
|
| 367 |
+
num_nodes_total, window, num_feat = x.shape
|
| 368 |
+
assert (
|
| 369 |
+
window == self.window_size and num_feat == self.num_features
|
| 370 |
+
), "Input window/feature dims do not match model configuration."
|
| 371 |
+
|
| 372 |
+
# LSTM expects [seq_len, batch, input_size]
|
| 373 |
+
x_seq = x.permute(1, 0, 2) # [window, num_nodes_total, num_features]
|
| 374 |
+
_, (h_n, _) = self.lstm(x_seq)
|
| 375 |
+
|
| 376 |
+
# Last layer hidden state: [num_nodes_total, hidden_lstm]
|
| 377 |
+
h_last = h_n[-1]
|
| 378 |
+
|
| 379 |
+
# -----------------------------
|
| 380 |
+
# Graph convolution over stocks
|
| 381 |
+
# -----------------------------
|
| 382 |
+
x_g = self.conv1(h_last, edge_index)
|
| 383 |
+
x_g = torch.relu(x_g)
|
| 384 |
+
x_g = self.dropout(x_g)
|
| 385 |
+
|
| 386 |
+
x_g = self.conv2(x_g, edge_index)
|
| 387 |
+
x_g = torch.relu(x_g)
|
| 388 |
+
x_g = self.dropout(x_g)
|
| 389 |
+
|
| 390 |
+
out = self.lin(x_g).squeeze(-1) # [num_nodes_total]
|
| 391 |
+
return out
|
| 392 |
+
|
| 393 |
+
|
| 394 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 395 |
+
# 5. Training and evaluation utilities
|
| 396 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 397 |
+
|
| 398 |
+
|
| 399 |
+
def train_one_epoch(
|
| 400 |
+
model: nn.Module,
|
| 401 |
+
loader: DataLoader,
|
| 402 |
+
optimizer: torch.optim.Optimizer,
|
| 403 |
+
device: torch.device,
|
| 404 |
+
) -> float:
|
| 405 |
+
model.train()
|
| 406 |
+
criterion = nn.MSELoss()
|
| 407 |
+
total_loss = 0.0
|
| 408 |
+
|
| 409 |
+
for batch in loader:
|
| 410 |
+
batch = batch.to(device)
|
| 411 |
+
optimizer.zero_grad()
|
| 412 |
+
out = model(batch.x, batch.edge_index)
|
| 413 |
+
loss = criterion(out, batch.y)
|
| 414 |
+
loss.backward()
|
| 415 |
+
optimizer.step()
|
| 416 |
+
total_loss += loss.item() * batch.num_graphs
|
| 417 |
+
|
| 418 |
+
avg_loss = total_loss / len(loader.dataset)
|
| 419 |
+
return avg_loss
|
| 420 |
+
|
| 421 |
+
|
| 422 |
+
def evaluate(
|
| 423 |
+
model: nn.Module,
|
| 424 |
+
loader: DataLoader,
|
| 425 |
+
device: torch.device,
|
| 426 |
+
):
|
| 427 |
+
model.eval()
|
| 428 |
+
criterion = nn.MSELoss()
|
| 429 |
+
total_loss = 0.0
|
| 430 |
+
all_y_true = []
|
| 431 |
+
all_y_pred = []
|
| 432 |
+
|
| 433 |
+
with torch.no_grad():
|
| 434 |
+
for batch in loader:
|
| 435 |
+
batch = batch.to(device)
|
| 436 |
+
out = model(batch.x, batch.edge_index)
|
| 437 |
+
loss = criterion(out, batch.y)
|
| 438 |
+
total_loss += loss.item() * batch.num_graphs
|
| 439 |
+
all_y_true.append(batch.y.cpu().numpy())
|
| 440 |
+
all_y_pred.append(out.cpu().numpy())
|
| 441 |
+
|
| 442 |
+
y_true = np.concatenate(all_y_true)
|
| 443 |
+
y_pred = np.concatenate(all_y_pred)
|
| 444 |
+
|
| 445 |
+
# -------------------------------------------------
|
| 446 |
+
# Guard against NaN/Inf in predictions or targets
|
| 447 |
+
# -------------------------------------------------
|
| 448 |
+
mask = np.isfinite(y_true) & np.isfinite(y_pred)
|
| 449 |
+
if mask.sum() == 0:
|
| 450 |
+
# Fallback: avoid crashing; metrics will be NaN but training can continue
|
| 451 |
+
mse = float("nan")
|
| 452 |
+
mae = float("nan")
|
| 453 |
+
directional_accuracy = float("nan")
|
| 454 |
+
avg_loss = total_loss / max(len(loader.dataset), 1)
|
| 455 |
+
return avg_loss, mse, mae, directional_accuracy, y_true, y_pred
|
| 456 |
+
|
| 457 |
+
y_true_clean = y_true[mask]
|
| 458 |
+
y_pred_clean = y_pred[mask]
|
| 459 |
+
|
| 460 |
+
mse = mean_squared_error(y_true_clean, y_pred_clean)
|
| 461 |
+
mae = mean_absolute_error(y_true_clean, y_pred_clean)
|
| 462 |
+
# Directional accuracy: how often the sign of return is predicted correctly
|
| 463 |
+
directional_accuracy = float((np.sign(y_true_clean) == np.sign(y_pred_clean)).mean())
|
| 464 |
+
|
| 465 |
+
avg_loss = total_loss / len(loader.dataset)
|
| 466 |
+
return avg_loss, mse, mae, directional_accuracy, y_true_clean, y_pred_clean
|
| 467 |
+
|
| 468 |
+
|
| 469 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 470 |
+
# 6. Baseline (before GNN) and real-time helpers
|
| 471 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 472 |
+
|
| 473 |
+
|
| 474 |
+
def compute_naive_baseline_metrics(targets: np.ndarray, train_start: int, train_end: int, val_start: int, val_end: int, test_start: int, test_end: int):
|
| 475 |
+
"""Compute a simple baseline: predict zero return (no change) and plot vs actual.
|
| 476 |
+
|
| 477 |
+
This represents a "before GNN" naive model where we assume next-day return = 0.
|
| 478 |
+
"""
|
| 479 |
+
# Flatten across all nodes
|
| 480 |
+
y_train = targets[train_start:train_end].reshape(-1)
|
| 481 |
+
y_val = targets[val_start:val_end].reshape(-1)
|
| 482 |
+
y_test = targets[test_start:test_end].reshape(-1)
|
| 483 |
+
|
| 484 |
+
# Baseline predictions are all zeros
|
| 485 |
+
y_train_pred = np.zeros_like(y_train)
|
| 486 |
+
y_val_pred = np.zeros_like(y_val)
|
| 487 |
+
y_test_pred = np.zeros_like(y_test)
|
| 488 |
+
|
| 489 |
+
train_mse = mean_squared_error(y_train, y_train_pred)
|
| 490 |
+
val_mse = mean_squared_error(y_val, y_val_pred)
|
| 491 |
+
test_mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, y_test_pred)
|
| 492 |
+
|
| 493 |
+
# Plot for test set
|
| 494 |
+
plt.figure(figsize=(6, 6))
|
| 495 |
+
plt.scatter(y_test, y_test_pred, alpha=0.3, s=10)
|
| 496 |
+
plt.xlabel("Actual returns")
|
| 497 |
+
plt.ylabel("Predicted returns (baseline: 0)")
|
| 498 |
+
plt.title("Baseline (No GNN) Predicted vs Actual Returns")
|
| 499 |
+
lims = [min(y_test.min(), y_test_pred.min()), max(y_test.max(), y_test_pred.max())]
|
| 500 |
+
plt.plot(lims, lims, "r--", linewidth=1)
|
| 501 |
+
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 502 |
+
plt.savefig("baseline_pred_vs_actual.png", dpi=200)
|
| 503 |
+
plt.close()
|
| 504 |
+
|
| 505 |
+
print(f"Baseline Train MSE: {train_mse:.6f}, Val MSE: {val_mse:.6f}, Test MSE: {test_mse:.6f}")
|
| 506 |
+
print("Saved baseline scatter plot to baseline_pred_vs_actual.png")
|
| 507 |
+
|
| 508 |
+
|
| 509 |
+
def realtime_predict_last_window(
|
| 510 |
+
model: nn.Module,
|
| 511 |
+
features: np.ndarray,
|
| 512 |
+
edge_index: torch.Tensor,
|
| 513 |
+
window_size: int,
|
| 514 |
+
device: torch.device,
|
| 515 |
+
):
|
| 516 |
+
"""Generate a real-time style prediction for the latest available day.
|
| 517 |
+
|
| 518 |
+
This uses the most recent `window_size` days in `features` as if it were "live" data.
|
| 519 |
+
"""
|
| 520 |
+
model.eval()
|
| 521 |
+
num_dates, num_nodes, num_feat = features.shape
|
| 522 |
+
if num_dates < window_size:
|
| 523 |
+
raise ValueError("Not enough data points for real-time window prediction.")
|
| 524 |
+
|
| 525 |
+
# Last window
|
| 526 |
+
window_feats = features[num_dates - window_size : num_dates] # [W, N, F]
|
| 527 |
+
window, N, F = window_feats.shape
|
| 528 |
+
x_seq = window_feats.transpose(1, 0, 2) # [N, W, F]
|
| 529 |
+
|
| 530 |
+
data = Data(
|
| 531 |
+
x=torch.from_numpy(x_seq).to(device),
|
| 532 |
+
edge_index=edge_index.to(device),
|
| 533 |
+
)
|
| 534 |
+
|
| 535 |
+
with torch.no_grad():
|
| 536 |
+
out = model(data.x, data.edge_index).cpu().numpy()
|
| 537 |
+
|
| 538 |
+
return out # [num_nodes]
|
| 539 |
+
|
| 540 |
+
|
| 541 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 542 |
+
# 7. Main experiment pipeline
|
| 543 |
+
# -----------------------------------------------------
|
| 544 |
+
|
| 545 |
+
|
| 546 |
+
def main():
|
| 547 |
+
infy_csv = "infy_stock.csv"
|
| 548 |
+
tcs_csv = "tcs_stock.csv"
|
| 549 |
+
nifty_it_csv = "nifty_it_index.csv"
|
| 550 |
+
for p in [infy_csv, tcs_csv, nifty_it_csv]:
|
| 551 |
+
if not os.path.exists(p):
|
| 552 |
+
raise FileNotFoundError(f"Could not find required CSV file: {p}")
|
| 553 |
+
|
| 554 |
+
print("Loading and preprocessing data from CSVs...")
|
| 555 |
+
features, targets, dates, companies = load_it_sector_data_from_csvs(
|
| 556 |
+
infy_csv=infy_csv,
|
| 557 |
+
tcs_csv=tcs_csv,
|
| 558 |
+
nifty_it_csv=nifty_it_csv,
|
| 559 |
+
)
|
| 560 |
+
num_dates, num_companies, num_features = features.shape
|
| 561 |
+
print(f"Num dates: {num_dates}, Num companies (nodes): {num_companies}, Num features: {num_features}")
|
| 562 |
+
|
| 563 |
+
# Build graph from training-period correlations only (to avoid look-ahead bias)
|
| 564 |
+
window_size = 20
|
| 565 |
+
if num_dates <= window_size + 1:
|
| 566 |
+
raise ValueError("Not enough dates to create time windows. Reduce window_size or use more data.")
|
| 567 |
+
|
| 568 |
+
first_t = window_size
|
| 569 |
+
last_t = num_dates - 1
|
| 570 |
+
total_samples = last_t - first_t + 1
|
| 571 |
+
|
| 572 |
+
train_samples = int(total_samples * 0.7)
|
| 573 |
+
val_samples = int(total_samples * 0.15)
|
| 574 |
+
test_samples = total_samples - train_samples - val_samples
|
| 575 |
+
|
| 576 |
+
train_start_t = first_t
|
| 577 |
+
train_end_t = train_start_t + train_samples
|
| 578 |
+
val_start_t = train_end_t
|
| 579 |
+
val_end_t = val_start_t + val_samples
|
| 580 |
+
test_start_t = val_end_t
|
| 581 |
+
test_end_t = last_t + 1
|
| 582 |
+
|
| 583 |
+
print(f"Total usable samples: {total_samples}")
|
| 584 |
+
print(f"Train: {train_samples}, Val: {val_samples}, Test: {test_samples}")
|
| 585 |
+
|
| 586 |
+
# -----------------------------
|
| 587 |
+
# Baseline (before GNN)
|
| 588 |
+
# -----------------------------
|
| 589 |
+
compute_naive_baseline_metrics(
|
| 590 |
+
targets,
|
| 591 |
+
train_start=train_start_t,
|
| 592 |
+
train_end=train_end_t,
|
| 593 |
+
val_start=val_start_t,
|
| 594 |
+
val_end=val_end_t,
|
| 595 |
+
test_start=test_start_t,
|
| 596 |
+
test_end=test_end_t,
|
| 597 |
+
)
|
| 598 |
+
|
| 599 |
+
# Use only training period to compute correlations
|
| 600 |
+
train_returns = targets[train_start_t:train_end_t]
|
| 601 |
+
edge_index = build_correlation_graph(train_returns, threshold=0.2)
|
| 602 |
+
print("Edge index shape:", edge_index.shape)
|
| 603 |
+
|
| 604 |
+
# Create datasets
|
| 605 |
+
train_dataset = TimeSeriesGraphDataset(
|
| 606 |
+
features=features,
|
| 607 |
+
targets=targets,
|
| 608 |
+
edge_index=edge_index,
|
| 609 |
+
window_size=window_size,
|
| 610 |
+
start_t=train_start_t,
|
| 611 |
+
end_t=train_end_t,
|
| 612 |
+
)
|
| 613 |
+
|
| 614 |
+
val_dataset = TimeSeriesGraphDataset(
|
| 615 |
+
features=features,
|
| 616 |
+
targets=targets,
|
| 617 |
+
edge_index=edge_index,
|
| 618 |
+
window_size=window_size,
|
| 619 |
+
start_t=val_start_t,
|
| 620 |
+
end_t=val_end_t,
|
| 621 |
+
)
|
| 622 |
+
|
| 623 |
+
test_dataset = TimeSeriesGraphDataset(
|
| 624 |
+
features=features,
|
| 625 |
+
targets=targets,
|
| 626 |
+
edge_index=edge_index,
|
| 627 |
+
window_size=window_size,
|
| 628 |
+
start_t=test_start_t,
|
| 629 |
+
end_t=test_end_t,
|
| 630 |
+
)
|
| 631 |
+
|
| 632 |
+
train_loader = DataLoader(train_dataset, batch_size=32, shuffle=True)
|
| 633 |
+
val_loader = DataLoader(val_dataset, batch_size=32, shuffle=False)
|
| 634 |
+
test_loader = DataLoader(test_dataset, batch_size=32, shuffle=False)
|
| 635 |
+
|
| 636 |
+
device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
|
| 637 |
+
print("Using device:", device)
|
| 638 |
+
|
| 639 |
+
model = GNNTimeSeriesModel(
|
| 640 |
+
window_size=window_size,
|
| 641 |
+
num_features=num_features,
|
| 642 |
+
hidden_lstm=64,
|
| 643 |
+
hidden_gnn=64,
|
| 644 |
+
dropout=0.2,
|
| 645 |
+
).to(device)
|
| 646 |
+
|
| 647 |
+
optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=1e-3, weight_decay=1e-4)
|
| 648 |
+
|
| 649 |
+
num_epochs = 30
|
| 650 |
+
best_val_loss = float("inf")
|
| 651 |
+
best_state_dict = None
|
| 652 |
+
|
| 653 |
+
print("Starting training...")
|
| 654 |
+
for epoch in range(1, num_epochs + 1):
|
| 655 |
+
train_loss = train_one_epoch(model, train_loader, optimizer, device)
|
| 656 |
+
val_loss, val_mse, val_mae, val_dir_acc, _, _ = evaluate(model, val_loader, device)
|
| 657 |
+
|
| 658 |
+
if val_loss < best_val_loss:
|
| 659 |
+
best_val_loss = val_loss
|
| 660 |
+
best_state_dict = {k: v.cpu().clone() for k, v in model.state_dict().items()}
|
| 661 |
+
|
| 662 |
+
print(
|
| 663 |
+
f"Epoch {epoch:03d} | "
|
| 664 |
+
f"Train Loss: {train_loss:.6f} | "
|
| 665 |
+
f"Val Loss: {val_loss:.6f}, Val MSE: {val_mse:.6f}, Val MAE: {val_mae:.6f}, "
|
| 666 |
+
f"Val DirAcc: {val_dir_acc:.4f}"
|
| 667 |
+
)
|
| 668 |
+
|
| 669 |
+
if best_state_dict is not None:
|
| 670 |
+
model.load_state_dict(best_state_dict)
|
| 671 |
+
|
| 672 |
+
print("Evaluating on test set...")
|
| 673 |
+
test_loss, test_mse, test_mae, test_dir_acc, y_true, y_pred = evaluate(model, test_loader, device)
|
| 674 |
+
print(
|
| 675 |
+
f"Test Loss: {test_loss:.6f}, Test MSE: {test_mse:.6f}, "
|
| 676 |
+
f"Test MAE: {test_mae:.6f}, Test DirAcc: {test_dir_acc:.4f}"
|
| 677 |
+
)
|
| 678 |
+
|
| 679 |
+
# -------------------------------------------------
|
| 680 |
+
# Simple visualization: predicted vs actual returns
|
| 681 |
+
# -------------------------------------------------
|
| 682 |
+
plt.figure(figsize=(6, 6))
|
| 683 |
+
plt.scatter(y_true, y_pred, alpha=0.3, s=10)
|
| 684 |
+
plt.xlabel("Actual returns")
|
| 685 |
+
plt.ylabel("Predicted returns")
|
| 686 |
+
plt.title("GNN Predicted vs Actual Daily Returns (All IT Stocks)")
|
| 687 |
+
lims = [min(y_true.min(), y_pred.min()), max(y_true.max(), y_pred.max())]
|
| 688 |
+
plt.plot(lims, lims, "r--", linewidth=1)
|
| 689 |
+
plt.tight_layout()
|
| 690 |
+
plt.savefig("gnn_it_sector_pred_vs_actual.png", dpi=200)
|
| 691 |
+
plt.close()
|
| 692 |
+
print("Saved scatter plot to gnn_it_sector_pred_vs_actual.png")
|
| 693 |
+
|
| 694 |
+
# -------------------------------------------------
|
| 695 |
+
# Real-time style prediction using latest window
|
| 696 |
+
# -------------------------------------------------
|
| 697 |
+
latest_pred = realtime_predict_last_window(
|
| 698 |
+
model=model,
|
| 699 |
+
features=features,
|
| 700 |
+
edge_index=edge_index,
|
| 701 |
+
window_size=window_size,
|
| 702 |
+
device=device,
|
| 703 |
+
)
|
| 704 |
+
print("Real-time style next-day return prediction per node (order of companies):")
|
| 705 |
+
for comp, val in zip(companies, latest_pred):
|
| 706 |
+
print(f" {comp}: {val:.6f}")
|
| 707 |
+
|
| 708 |
+
|
| 709 |
+
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 710 |
+
main()
|