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3d749f4 | 1 | <!DOCTYPE html><html lang="en" class="dark inter_48bf155c-module__tUfyVa__variable jetbrains_mono_39c8d23b-module__WK7_cq__variable h-full antialiased"><head><meta charSet="utf-8"/><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1"/><link rel="preload" href="/_next/static/media/70bc3e132a0a741e-s.p.3t6q91iet4nsy.woff2" as="font" crossorigin="" type="font/woff2"/><link rel="preload" href="/_next/static/media/83afe278b6a6bb3c-s.p.2bn3s6zvc0dyp.woff2" as="font" crossorigin="" type="font/woff2"/><link rel="stylesheet" href="/_next/static/chunks/3ccb3s36a-ev0.css" data-precedence="next"/><link rel="preload" as="script" fetchPriority="low" href="/_next/static/chunks/1kbvvjb8xiuz5.js"/><script src="/_next/static/chunks/27jktro2p5rq9.js" async=""></script><script src="/_next/static/chunks/2ne35xpb2gco9.js" async=""></script><script src="/_next/static/chunks/3rxl-jt3pdxgx.js" async=""></script><script src="/_next/static/chunks/turbopack-2w-hlngzk4qal.js" 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justify-between gap-10 !bg-[oklch(0.155_0_0)]"><div class="flex flex-1 flex-col overflow-x-hidden overflow-y-auto"><a class="flex items-center gap-2 py-1" href="/"><div class="flex h-7 w-7 shrink-0 items-center justify-center rounded-md bg-neutral-200 text-sm font-semibold text-neutral-900">J</div><span class="whitespace-pre text-sm font-medium tracking-tight text-neutral-100">Jolash</span></a><div class="mt-6 flex flex-col"><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Research</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-layout-dashboard h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="7" height="9" x="3" y="3" rx="1"></rect><rect width="7" height="5" x="14" y="3" rx="1"></rect><rect width="7" height="9" x="14" y="12" rx="1"></rect><rect width="7" height="5" x="3" y="16" rx="1"></rect></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Overview</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/hypotheses"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide 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d="M3 3v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16"></path><path d="m19 9-5 5-4-4-3 3"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Backtest Results</span></a></div></div><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Risk & Execution</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/risk"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-shield-alert h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M20 13c0 5-3.5 7.5-7.66 8.95a1 1 0 0 1-.67-.01C7.5 20.5 4 18 4 13V6a1 1 0 0 1 1-1c2 0 4.5-1.2 6.24-2.72a1.17 1.17 0 0 1 1.52 0C14.51 3.81 17 5 19 5a1 1 0 0 1 1 1z"></path><path d="M12 8v4"></path><path d="M12 16h.01"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Risk Dashboard</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/execution"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-activity h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M22 12h-2.48a2 2 0 0 0-1.93 1.46l-2.35 8.36a.25.25 0 0 1-.48 0L9.24 2.18a.25.25 0 0 0-.48 0l-2.35 8.36A2 2 0 0 1 4.49 12H2"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Live Execution</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/decay"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-trending-down h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M16 17h6v-6"></path><path d="m22 17-8.5-8.5-5 5L2 7"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Decay Tracking</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/live"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-radio h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M16.247 7.761a6 6 0 0 1 0 8.478"></path><path d="M19.075 4.933a10 10 0 0 1 0 14.134"></path><path d="M4.925 19.067a10 10 0 0 1 0-14.134"></path><path d="M7.753 16.239a6 6 0 0 1 0-8.478"></path><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="2"></circle></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Live Market Data</span></a></div></div><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Infrastructure</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/datasets"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-database h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><ellipse cx="12" cy="5" rx="9" ry="3"></ellipse><path d="M3 5V19A9 3 0 0 0 21 19V5"></path><path d="M3 12A9 3 0 0 0 21 12"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Datasets & Models</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/data-health"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-hard-drive h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M10 16h.01"></path><path d="M2.212 11.577a2 2 0 0 0-.212.896V18a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16a2 2 0 0 0 2-2v-5.527a2 2 0 0 0-.212-.896L18.55 5.11A2 2 0 0 0 16.76 4H7.24a2 2 0 0 0-1.79 1.11z"></path><path d="M21.946 12.013H2.054"></path><path d="M6 16h.01"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Data Health</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/agents"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-users h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M16 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-4-4H6a4 4 0 0 0-4 4v2"></path><path d="M16 3.128a4 4 0 0 1 0 7.744"></path><path d="M22 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-3-3.87"></path><circle cx="9" cy="7" r="4"></circle></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Team & Agents</span></a></div></div><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Compliance</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/compliance"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-list h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="M12 11h4"></path><path d="M12 16h4"></path><path d="M8 11h.01"></path><path d="M8 16h.01"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Audit Trail</span></a></div></div></div></div></div><div class="h-10 px-4 py-4 flex flex-row md:hidden items-center justify-between bg-neutral-100 dark:bg-neutral-800 w-full"><div class="flex justify-end z-20 w-full"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-menu text-neutral-800 dark:text-neutral-200 cursor-pointer" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M4 5h16"></path><path d="M4 12h16"></path><path d="M4 19h16"></path></svg></div></div><main class="flex-1 overflow-x-hidden md:m-2 md:rounded-2xl md:border md:border-white/[0.08] bg-[oklch(0.185_0_0)] md:min-h-[calc(100vh-1rem)]"><div class="mx-auto w-full max-w-6xl px-6 py-8 md:px-10"><div><div class="mb-8"><p class="font-data mb-1.5 text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-[0.2em] text-muted-foreground/60">Research · Validation</p><h1 class="text-2xl font-medium tracking-tight text-foreground">Backtest Results</h1><p class="mt-1.5 text-sm font-normal leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Honest, cost-inclusive results on held-out data the model never trained on. No cherry-picking.</p></div><div class="space-y-6"><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">USDCHF<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1h, horizon 4, submitted 2026-07-10) -- v2 CORRECTED backtest (supersedes entry 5's inflated Sharpe -- overlapping-forward-return bug, see backtest_signal_model_v2.py docstring). 2021-22 independent robustness window. Sharpe 1.98, +22.7% vs buy-hold +4.9%, max DD -4.0%, 2611 episodes, 60.7% win rate. Confirms the edge on a second window.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-emerald-400/30 bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-300">Outperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-emerald-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="37.782833246419834" y2="37.782833246419834" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,37.78 L2.37,37.48 L4.75,36.39 L7.12,36.00 L9.49,37.55 L11.86,37.75 L14.24,36.91 L16.61,36.46 L18.98,37.24 L21.36,37.95 L23.73,37.50 L26.10,37.43 L28.47,37.23 L30.85,37.48 L33.22,39.25 L35.59,37.70 L37.97,38.51 L40.34,37.02 L42.71,37.25 L45.08,36.53 L47.46,37.00 L49.83,38.01 L52.20,36.45 L54.58,35.50 L56.95,35.98 L59.32,34.57 L61.69,34.11 L64.07,36.25 L66.44,36.11 L68.81,36.07 L71.19,33.27 L73.56,31.94 L75.93,31.69 L78.31,31.98 L80.68,31.04 L83.05,32.35 L85.42,30.71 L87.80,29.78 L90.17,25.69 L92.54,24.16 L94.92,23.04 L97.29,24.44 L99.66,24.03 L102.03,22.91 L104.41,20.58 L106.78,18.59 L109.15,22.16 L111.53,22.99 L113.90,23.20 L116.27,22.42 L118.64,19.93 L121.02,19.25 L123.39,16.05 L125.76,15.91 L128.14,12.58 L130.51,5.63 L132.88,6.80 L135.25,1.61 L137.63,0.75 L140.00,2.68 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,37.78 L2.37,37.48 L4.75,36.39 L7.12,36.00 L9.49,37.55 L11.86,37.75 L14.24,36.91 L16.61,36.46 L18.98,37.24 L21.36,37.95 L23.73,37.50 L26.10,37.43 L28.47,37.23 L30.85,37.48 L33.22,39.25 L35.59,37.70 L37.97,38.51 L40.34,37.02 L42.71,37.25 L45.08,36.53 L47.46,37.00 L49.83,38.01 L52.20,36.45 L54.58,35.50 L56.95,35.98 L59.32,34.57 L61.69,34.11 L64.07,36.25 L66.44,36.11 L68.81,36.07 L71.19,33.27 L73.56,31.94 L75.93,31.69 L78.31,31.98 L80.68,31.04 L83.05,32.35 L85.42,30.71 L87.80,29.78 L90.17,25.69 L92.54,24.16 L94.92,23.04 L97.29,24.44 L99.66,24.03 L102.03,22.91 L104.41,20.58 L106.78,18.59 L109.15,22.16 L111.53,22.99 L113.90,23.20 L116.27,22.42 L118.64,19.93 L121.02,19.25 L123.39,16.05 L125.76,15.91 L128.14,12.58 L130.51,5.63 L132.88,6.80 L135.25,1.61 L137.63,0.75 L140.00,2.68" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">12,473</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">2,611</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-emerald-400">22.73%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-emerald-400">4.87%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-emerald-400">1.98</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-3.95%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">60.7<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Positive Sharpe and beat buy-and-hold -- a real candidate worth further scrutiny, not yet a confirmed edge on its own.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">AUDUSD<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1D, horizon 12, submitted 2026-07-10) -- REJECTED -- failed robustness (see next entry). Promising on 2024-25 alone: Sharpe 1.09, +18.2% vs buy-hold -1.5%, val AUC 0.63. But did not replicate on the independent 2021-22 window, so treat this as a lucky window, not a real edge.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-emerald-400/30 bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-300">Outperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-emerald-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="38.575445924587946" y2="38.575445924587946" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,37.73 L2.37,36.93 L4.75,35.23 L7.12,32.74 L9.49,33.24 L11.86,33.87 L14.24,31.01 L16.61,31.81 L18.98,32.75 L21.36,27.73 L23.73,25.74 L26.10,25.51 L28.47,29.91 L30.85,30.70 L33.22,30.91 L35.59,30.60 L37.97,33.94 L40.34,27.26 L42.71,26.72 L45.08,26.20 L47.46,28.06 L49.83,28.94 L52.20,34.70 L54.58,39.25 L56.95,35.52 L59.32,36.39 L61.69,35.65 L64.07,35.49 L66.44,35.41 L68.81,33.71 L71.19,30.51 L73.56,31.00 L75.93,33.01 L78.31,32.29 L80.68,30.92 L83.05,32.73 L85.42,33.45 L87.80,32.71 L90.17,30.24 L92.54,11.48 L94.92,7.88 L97.29,2.77 L99.66,2.66 L102.03,3.00 L104.41,0.75 L106.78,1.54 L109.15,5.06 L111.53,6.62 L113.90,7.98 L116.27,10.81 L118.64,10.49 L121.02,8.60 L123.39,5.17 L125.76,5.46 L128.14,1.82 L130.51,1.81 L132.88,3.41 L135.25,6.17 L137.63,7.65 L140.00,6.99 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,37.73 L2.37,36.93 L4.75,35.23 L7.12,32.74 L9.49,33.24 L11.86,33.87 L14.24,31.01 L16.61,31.81 L18.98,32.75 L21.36,27.73 L23.73,25.74 L26.10,25.51 L28.47,29.91 L30.85,30.70 L33.22,30.91 L35.59,30.60 L37.97,33.94 L40.34,27.26 L42.71,26.72 L45.08,26.20 L47.46,28.06 L49.83,28.94 L52.20,34.70 L54.58,39.25 L56.95,35.52 L59.32,36.39 L61.69,35.65 L64.07,35.49 L66.44,35.41 L68.81,33.71 L71.19,30.51 L73.56,31.00 L75.93,33.01 L78.31,32.29 L80.68,30.92 L83.05,32.73 L85.42,33.45 L87.80,32.71 L90.17,30.24 L92.54,11.48 L94.92,7.88 L97.29,2.77 L99.66,2.66 L102.03,3.00 L104.41,0.75 L106.78,1.54 L109.15,5.06 L111.53,6.62 L113.90,7.98 L116.27,10.81 L118.64,10.49 L121.02,8.60 L123.39,5.17 L125.76,5.46 L128.14,1.82 L130.51,1.81 L132.88,3.41 L135.25,6.17 L137.63,7.65 L140.00,6.99" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">508</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">124</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-emerald-400">18.17%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-1.50%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-emerald-400">1.09</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-7.67%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">53.2<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Positive Sharpe and beat buy-and-hold -- a real candidate worth further scrutiny, not yet a confirmed edge on its own.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">USDCHF<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1h, horizon 4, submitted 2026-07-10) -- v2 CORRECTED backtest (supersedes entry 4's inflated Sharpe 1.29 -- see backtest_signal_model_v2.py docstring for the overlapping-forward-return bug). 2024-25 held-out window. Still the one real candidate: Sharpe 0.83, +8.2% vs buy-hold -5.5%, max DD -5.2%, 2089 episodes, 56.6% win rate.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-emerald-400/30 bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-300">Outperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-emerald-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="38.6560503796553" y2="38.6560503796553" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,37.38 L2.37,31.14 L4.75,29.82 L7.12,28.36 L9.49,26.67 L11.86,25.32 L14.24,27.51 L16.61,22.86 L18.98,23.68 L21.36,25.75 L23.73,24.66 L26.10,24.36 L28.47,25.80 L30.85,26.04 L33.22,27.35 L35.59,26.32 L37.97,28.47 L40.34,28.18 L42.71,29.81 L45.08,27.83 L47.46,26.44 L49.83,29.73 L52.20,28.63 L54.58,26.22 L56.95,26.96 L59.32,27.20 L61.69,29.81 L64.07,30.09 L66.44,30.67 L68.81,31.44 L71.19,30.11 L73.56,29.19 L75.93,24.38 L78.31,28.54 L80.68,25.60 L83.05,20.97 L85.42,19.77 L87.80,20.95 L90.17,39.25 L92.54,34.94 L94.92,30.72 L97.29,25.71 L99.66,25.12 L102.03,18.55 L104.41,14.19 L106.78,12.12 L109.15,10.97 L111.53,4.88 L113.90,6.10 L116.27,6.37 L118.64,7.28 L121.02,8.37 L123.39,6.10 L125.76,7.47 L128.14,6.66 L130.51,5.21 L132.88,9.24 L135.25,9.33 L137.63,3.41 L140.00,0.75 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,37.38 L2.37,31.14 L4.75,29.82 L7.12,28.36 L9.49,26.67 L11.86,25.32 L14.24,27.51 L16.61,22.86 L18.98,23.68 L21.36,25.75 L23.73,24.66 L26.10,24.36 L28.47,25.80 L30.85,26.04 L33.22,27.35 L35.59,26.32 L37.97,28.47 L40.34,28.18 L42.71,29.81 L45.08,27.83 L47.46,26.44 L49.83,29.73 L52.20,28.63 L54.58,26.22 L56.95,26.96 L59.32,27.20 L61.69,29.81 L64.07,30.09 L66.44,30.67 L68.81,31.44 L71.19,30.11 L73.56,29.19 L75.93,24.38 L78.31,28.54 L80.68,25.60 L83.05,20.97 L85.42,19.77 L87.80,20.95 L90.17,39.25 L92.54,34.94 L94.92,30.72 L97.29,25.71 L99.66,25.12 L102.03,18.55 L104.41,14.19 L106.78,12.12 L109.15,10.97 L111.53,4.88 L113.90,6.10 L116.27,6.37 L118.64,7.28 L121.02,8.37 L123.39,6.10 L125.76,7.47 L128.14,6.66 L130.51,5.21 L132.88,9.24 L135.25,9.33 L137.63,3.41 L140.00,0.75" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">12,452</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">2,089</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-emerald-400">8.17%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-5.48%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.83</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-5.20%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">56.6<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Positive Sharpe and beat buy-and-hold -- a real candidate worth further scrutiny, not yet a confirmed edge on its own.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">USDCHF<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (4h, horizon 24, submitted 2026-07-10) -- REJECTED after v2 correction. Old v1 backtest showed Sharpe 1.39 / +118%, but that was entirely the overlapping-forward-return bug (val AUC was 0.44 -- worse than random). Corrected 2024-25: Sharpe -0.13, -2.2% vs buy-hold -6.4%. No edge.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-emerald-400/30 bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-300">Outperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="14.41623399100035" y2="14.41623399100035" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,13.93 L2.37,11.51 L4.75,5.93 L7.12,0.75 L9.49,4.58 L11.86,5.12 L14.24,5.09 L16.61,1.53 L18.98,1.50 L21.36,0.75 L23.73,4.18 L26.10,7.50 L28.47,8.39 L30.85,14.42 L33.22,15.40 L35.59,13.42 L37.97,11.72 L40.34,15.15 L42.71,23.39 L45.08,28.80 L47.46,31.59 L49.83,31.59 L52.20,32.44 L54.58,35.48 L56.95,39.09 L59.32,39.25 L61.69,33.78 L64.07,27.61 L66.44,31.71 L68.81,27.41 L71.19,30.74 L73.56,29.40 L75.93,28.36 L78.31,32.54 L80.68,28.42 L83.05,25.56 L85.42,26.41 L87.80,26.33 L90.17,6.68 L92.54,11.74 L94.92,15.86 L97.29,22.83 L99.66,19.08 L102.03,17.00 L104.41,17.00 L106.78,19.30 L109.15,21.02 L111.53,19.90 L113.90,17.96 L116.27,18.62 L118.64,20.70 L121.02,23.18 L123.39,19.31 L125.76,29.81 L128.14,28.08 L130.51,27.04 L132.88,29.57 L135.25,25.45 L137.63,25.20 L140.00,21.64 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,13.93 L2.37,11.51 L4.75,5.93 L7.12,0.75 L9.49,4.58 L11.86,5.12 L14.24,5.09 L16.61,1.53 L18.98,1.50 L21.36,0.75 L23.73,4.18 L26.10,7.50 L28.47,8.39 L30.85,14.42 L33.22,15.40 L35.59,13.42 L37.97,11.72 L40.34,15.15 L42.71,23.39 L45.08,28.80 L47.46,31.59 L49.83,31.59 L52.20,32.44 L54.58,35.48 L56.95,39.09 L59.32,39.25 L61.69,33.78 L64.07,27.61 L66.44,31.71 L68.81,27.41 L71.19,30.74 L73.56,29.40 L75.93,28.36 L78.31,32.54 L80.68,28.42 L83.05,25.56 L85.42,26.41 L87.80,26.33 L90.17,6.68 L92.54,11.74 L94.92,15.86 L97.29,22.83 L99.66,19.08 L102.03,17.00 L104.41,17.00 L106.78,19.30 L109.15,21.02 L111.53,19.90 L113.90,17.96 L116.27,18.62 L118.64,20.70 L121.02,23.18 L123.39,19.31 L125.76,29.81 L128.14,28.08 L130.51,27.04 L132.88,29.57 L135.25,25.45 L137.63,25.20 L140.00,21.64" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">3,090</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">654</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-2.17%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-6.43%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-0.13</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-12.42%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-rose-400">48.5<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">USDCHF<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (4h, horizon 24, submitted 2026-07-10) -- REJECTED after v2 correction, 2021-22 robustness window. Old v1 backtest showed inflated Sharpe from the overlapping-forward-return bug. Corrected: Sharpe -0.42, -6.0% vs buy-hold +4.5%. Confirms no edge on a second window.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-rose-400/30 bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-300">Underperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="9.486174070716228" y2="9.486174070716228" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,9.91 L2.37,7.23 L4.75,8.47 L7.12,12.03 L9.49,14.75 L11.86,13.45 L14.24,14.99 L16.61,8.01 L18.98,18.10 L21.36,12.50 L23.73,4.30 L26.10,7.85 L28.47,5.66 L30.85,10.42 L33.22,22.13 L35.59,19.00 L37.97,13.31 L40.34,11.35 L42.71,14.39 L45.08,17.51 L47.46,17.89 L49.83,16.32 L52.20,20.07 L54.58,22.02 L56.95,14.77 L59.32,8.13 L61.69,10.90 L64.07,14.93 L66.44,18.43 L68.81,20.29 L71.19,14.37 L73.56,23.18 L75.93,24.47 L78.31,28.86 L80.68,23.09 L83.05,17.27 L85.42,19.57 L87.80,23.60 L90.17,14.86 L92.54,1.52 L94.92,0.75 L97.29,9.18 L99.66,14.82 L102.03,22.48 L104.41,30.95 L106.78,18.64 L109.15,20.90 L111.53,21.78 L113.90,23.36 L116.27,14.16 L118.64,10.65 L121.02,2.67 L123.39,16.88 L125.76,16.71 L128.14,6.68 L130.51,28.47 L132.88,15.86 L135.25,31.31 L137.63,31.36 L140.00,39.25 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,9.91 L2.37,7.23 L4.75,8.47 L7.12,12.03 L9.49,14.75 L11.86,13.45 L14.24,14.99 L16.61,8.01 L18.98,18.10 L21.36,12.50 L23.73,4.30 L26.10,7.85 L28.47,5.66 L30.85,10.42 L33.22,22.13 L35.59,19.00 L37.97,13.31 L40.34,11.35 L42.71,14.39 L45.08,17.51 L47.46,17.89 L49.83,16.32 L52.20,20.07 L54.58,22.02 L56.95,14.77 L59.32,8.13 L61.69,10.90 L64.07,14.93 L66.44,18.43 L68.81,20.29 L71.19,14.37 L73.56,23.18 L75.93,24.47 L78.31,28.86 L80.68,23.09 L83.05,17.27 L85.42,19.57 L87.80,23.60 L90.17,14.86 L92.54,1.52 L94.92,0.75 L97.29,9.18 L99.66,14.82 L102.03,22.48 L104.41,30.95 L106.78,18.64 L109.15,20.90 L111.53,21.78 L113.90,23.36 L116.27,14.16 L118.64,10.65 L121.02,2.67 L123.39,16.88 L125.76,16.71 L128.14,6.68 L130.51,28.47 L132.88,15.86 L135.25,31.31 L137.63,31.36 L140.00,39.25" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">3,118</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">571</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-5.97%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-emerald-400">4.52%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-0.42</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-7.89%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">52.9<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">AUDUSD<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1D, horizon 12, submitted 2026-07-10) -- REJECTED -- robustness failure confirmed. 2021-22 independent window: Sharpe -0.46, -10.5% vs buy-hold -11.6%, val AUC 0.46 (worse than random). The 2024-25 promotion (previous entry) did not replicate; this hypothesis is dead.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-emerald-400/30 bg-emerald-500/10 text-emerald-300">Outperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><path d="M0.00,3.93 L2.37,2.14 L4.75,0.75 L7.12,3.33 L9.49,4.24 L11.86,14.12 L14.24,11.44 L16.61,16.80 L18.98,16.23 L21.36,17.70 L23.73,20.20 L26.10,18.68 L28.47,19.53 L30.85,15.34 L33.22,13.51 L35.59,15.43 L37.97,16.09 L40.34,11.92 L42.71,8.95 L45.08,11.59 L47.46,14.73 L49.83,19.17 L52.20,17.88 L54.58,14.92 L56.95,10.86 L59.32,13.45 L61.69,13.33 L64.07,21.33 L66.44,29.74 L68.81,30.76 L71.19,26.38 L73.56,28.13 L75.93,18.79 L78.31,15.22 L80.68,14.12 L83.05,13.00 L85.42,15.91 L87.80,15.75 L90.17,13.69 L92.54,19.84 L94.92,15.27 L97.29,13.41 L99.66,19.00 L102.03,21.51 L104.41,15.71 L106.78,12.43 L109.15,15.07 L111.53,18.95 L113.90,18.17 L116.27,21.62 L118.64,19.90 L121.02,28.48 L123.39,23.50 L125.76,31.08 L128.14,27.02 L130.51,31.54 L132.88,39.25 L135.25,31.78 L137.63,23.55 L140.00,28.29 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,3.93 L2.37,2.14 L4.75,0.75 L7.12,3.33 L9.49,4.24 L11.86,14.12 L14.24,11.44 L16.61,16.80 L18.98,16.23 L21.36,17.70 L23.73,20.20 L26.10,18.68 L28.47,19.53 L30.85,15.34 L33.22,13.51 L35.59,15.43 L37.97,16.09 L40.34,11.92 L42.71,8.95 L45.08,11.59 L47.46,14.73 L49.83,19.17 L52.20,17.88 L54.58,14.92 L56.95,10.86 L59.32,13.45 L61.69,13.33 L64.07,21.33 L66.44,29.74 L68.81,30.76 L71.19,26.38 L73.56,28.13 L75.93,18.79 L78.31,15.22 L80.68,14.12 L83.05,13.00 L85.42,15.91 L87.80,15.75 L90.17,13.69 L92.54,19.84 L94.92,15.27 L97.29,13.41 L99.66,19.00 L102.03,21.51 L104.41,15.71 L106.78,12.43 L109.15,15.07 L111.53,18.95 L113.90,18.17 L116.27,21.62 L118.64,19.90 L121.02,28.48 L123.39,23.50 L125.76,31.08 L128.14,27.02 L130.51,31.54 L132.88,39.25 L135.25,31.78 L137.63,23.55 L140.00,28.29" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">518</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">109</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-10.45%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-11.57%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-0.46</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-15.97%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">58.7<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">GBPUSD<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1h, horizon 4, submitted 2026-07-10) -- v2 CORRECTED backtest (supersedes entry 3's overlap-inflated Sharpe 0.29). 2024-25 test window. Sharpe -0.71, -3.1% vs buy-hold +5.7%. Was ambiguous before (positive Sharpe but underperformed buy-hold); now unambiguously no edge.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-rose-400/30 bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-300">Underperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="0.75863809737492" y2="0.75863809737492" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,0.75 L2.37,5.26 L4.75,6.82 L7.12,9.97 L9.49,10.76 L11.86,11.62 L14.24,12.55 L16.61,16.60 L18.98,18.16 L21.36,17.52 L23.73,23.91 L26.10,25.49 L28.47,26.66 L30.85,27.81 L33.22,32.36 L35.59,31.77 L37.97,33.02 L40.34,34.03 L42.71,33.75 L45.08,39.17 L47.46,36.61 L49.83,39.25 L52.20,38.85 L54.58,35.16 L56.95,33.98 L59.32,32.75 L61.69,31.54 L64.07,27.17 L66.44,26.37 L68.81,20.62 L71.19,21.65 L73.56,20.16 L75.93,16.35 L78.31,15.89 L80.68,18.23 L83.05,18.12 L85.42,17.23 L87.80,14.65 L90.17,29.39 L92.54,32.84 L94.92,28.05 L97.29,28.99 L99.66,26.79 L102.03,23.11 L104.41,22.84 L106.78,23.17 L109.15,25.48 L111.53,27.10 L113.90,25.27 L116.27,32.76 L118.64,31.26 L121.02,31.69 L123.39,35.10 L125.76,33.54 L128.14,35.38 L130.51,33.43 L132.88,33.51 L135.25,28.74 L137.63,28.30 L140.00,27.71 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,0.75 L2.37,5.26 L4.75,6.82 L7.12,9.97 L9.49,10.76 L11.86,11.62 L14.24,12.55 L16.61,16.60 L18.98,18.16 L21.36,17.52 L23.73,23.91 L26.10,25.49 L28.47,26.66 L30.85,27.81 L33.22,32.36 L35.59,31.77 L37.97,33.02 L40.34,34.03 L42.71,33.75 L45.08,39.17 L47.46,36.61 L49.83,39.25 L52.20,38.85 L54.58,35.16 L56.95,33.98 L59.32,32.75 L61.69,31.54 L64.07,27.17 L66.44,26.37 L68.81,20.62 L71.19,21.65 L73.56,20.16 L75.93,16.35 L78.31,15.89 L80.68,18.23 L83.05,18.12 L85.42,17.23 L87.80,14.65 L90.17,29.39 L92.54,32.84 L94.92,28.05 L97.29,28.99 L99.66,26.79 L102.03,23.11 L104.41,22.84 L106.78,23.17 L109.15,25.48 L111.53,27.10 L113.90,25.27 L116.27,32.76 L118.64,31.26 L121.02,31.69 L123.39,35.10 L125.76,33.54 L128.14,35.38 L130.51,33.43 L132.88,33.51 L135.25,28.74 L137.63,28.30 L140.00,27.71" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">12,450</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">982</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-3.12%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-emerald-400">5.65%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-0.71</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-4.52%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">53.6<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">AUDUSD<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1h, horizon 4, submitted 2026-07-10) -- v2 CORRECTED backtest (supersedes entry 2's overlap-inflated Sharpe -0.30). 2024-25 test window. Sharpe -1.43, -13.8% vs buy-hold -2.0%. No edge -- confirms the original cheap-screen-false-positive rejection.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-rose-400/30 bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-300">Underperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="3.6092118047121673" y2="3.6092118047121673" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,3.54 L2.37,0.75 L4.75,0.90 L7.12,1.11 L9.49,0.97 L11.86,2.35 L14.24,3.78 L16.61,6.35 L18.98,4.37 L21.36,5.68 L23.73,9.00 L26.10,9.87 L28.47,12.35 L30.85,11.29 L33.22,13.07 L35.59,15.04 L37.97,13.11 L40.34,12.18 L42.71,15.25 L45.08,16.12 L47.46,15.56 L49.83,17.53 L52.20,17.73 L54.58,21.69 L56.95,21.83 L59.32,22.72 L61.69,23.91 L64.07,24.72 L66.44,29.33 L68.81,29.67 L71.19,26.75 L73.56,30.11 L75.93,28.32 L78.31,28.89 L80.68,29.96 L83.05,30.57 L85.42,31.96 L87.80,31.93 L90.17,37.81 L92.54,37.71 L94.92,39.20 L97.29,36.87 L99.66,37.20 L102.03,36.61 L104.41,39.25 L106.78,38.80 L109.15,38.76 L111.53,38.25 L113.90,37.73 L116.27,36.04 L118.64,37.14 L121.02,36.94 L123.39,37.01 L125.76,35.75 L128.14,36.26 L130.51,37.37 L132.88,36.90 L135.25,35.87 L137.63,36.16 L140.00,35.96 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,3.54 L2.37,0.75 L4.75,0.90 L7.12,1.11 L9.49,0.97 L11.86,2.35 L14.24,3.78 L16.61,6.35 L18.98,4.37 L21.36,5.68 L23.73,9.00 L26.10,9.87 L28.47,12.35 L30.85,11.29 L33.22,13.07 L35.59,15.04 L37.97,13.11 L40.34,12.18 L42.71,15.25 L45.08,16.12 L47.46,15.56 L49.83,17.53 L52.20,17.73 L54.58,21.69 L56.95,21.83 L59.32,22.72 L61.69,23.91 L64.07,24.72 L66.44,29.33 L68.81,29.67 L71.19,26.75 L73.56,30.11 L75.93,28.32 L78.31,28.89 L80.68,29.96 L83.05,30.57 L85.42,31.96 L87.80,31.93 L90.17,37.81 L92.54,37.71 L94.92,39.20 L97.29,36.87 L99.66,37.20 L102.03,36.61 L104.41,39.25 L106.78,38.80 L109.15,38.76 L111.53,38.25 L113.90,37.73 L116.27,36.04 L118.64,37.14 L121.02,36.94 L123.39,37.01 L125.76,35.75 L128.14,36.26 L130.51,37.37 L132.88,36.90 L135.25,35.87 L137.63,36.16 L140.00,35.96" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">12,453</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">1,704</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-13.84%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-2.04%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-1.43</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-17.11%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">53.3<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">EURUSD<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1h, horizon 4, submitted 2026-07-10) -- v2 CORRECTED backtest (supersedes entry 1's overlap-inflated Sharpe -0.86). 2024-25 test window. Sharpe -1.80, -14.1% vs buy-hold +6.3%. No edge -- confirms and sharpens the original rejection.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-rose-400/30 bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-300">Underperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="2.086511733143709" y2="2.086511733143709" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,2.28 L2.37,2.13 L4.75,1.30 L7.12,2.99 L9.49,1.75 L11.86,2.63 L14.24,2.04 L16.61,3.60 L18.98,5.87 L21.36,1.23 L23.73,1.09 L26.10,0.86 L28.47,0.75 L30.85,2.29 L33.22,2.82 L35.59,4.67 L37.97,7.66 L40.34,6.33 L42.71,5.02 L45.08,7.31 L47.46,6.94 L49.83,9.46 L52.20,11.38 L54.58,9.35 L56.95,9.57 L59.32,8.24 L61.69,9.59 L64.07,9.63 L66.44,11.02 L68.81,8.39 L71.19,10.75 L73.56,12.71 L75.93,13.96 L78.31,17.92 L80.68,17.82 L83.05,22.98 L85.42,23.59 L87.80,23.61 L90.17,33.32 L92.54,33.44 L94.92,32.83 L97.29,36.03 L99.66,36.85 L102.03,36.25 L104.41,39.25 L106.78,39.20 L109.15,38.47 L111.53,37.83 L113.90,37.51 L116.27,37.91 L118.64,36.26 L121.02,38.65 L123.39,36.87 L125.76,36.28 L128.14,35.57 L130.51,35.18 L132.88,33.91 L135.25,34.39 L137.63,35.83 L140.00,37.21 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,2.28 L2.37,2.13 L4.75,1.30 L7.12,2.99 L9.49,1.75 L11.86,2.63 L14.24,2.04 L16.61,3.60 L18.98,5.87 L21.36,1.23 L23.73,1.09 L26.10,0.86 L28.47,0.75 L30.85,2.29 L33.22,2.82 L35.59,4.67 L37.97,7.66 L40.34,6.33 L42.71,5.02 L45.08,7.31 L47.46,6.94 L49.83,9.46 L52.20,11.38 L54.58,9.35 L56.95,9.57 L59.32,8.24 L61.69,9.59 L64.07,9.63 L66.44,11.02 L68.81,8.39 L71.19,10.75 L73.56,12.71 L75.93,13.96 L78.31,17.92 L80.68,17.82 L83.05,22.98 L85.42,23.59 L87.80,23.61 L90.17,33.32 L92.54,33.44 L94.92,32.83 L97.29,36.03 L99.66,36.85 L102.03,36.25 L104.41,39.25 L106.78,39.20 L109.15,38.47 L111.53,37.83 L113.90,37.51 L116.27,37.91 L118.64,36.26 L121.02,38.65 L123.39,36.87 L125.76,36.28 L128.14,35.57 L130.51,35.18 L132.88,33.91 L135.25,34.39 L137.63,35.83 L140.00,37.21" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">12,453</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">1,872</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-14.11%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-emerald-400">6.25%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-1.80</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-15.80%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">54.1<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel-strong overflow-visible"><div data-slot="card-header" class="group/card-header @container/card-header grid auto-rows-min items-start gap-1 rounded-t-xl px-(--card-spacing) has-data-[slot=card-action]:grid-cols-[1fr_auto] has-data-[slot=card-description]:grid-rows-[auto_auto] [.border-b]:pb-(--card-spacing) border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5"><div class="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-4"><div><div data-slot="card-title" class="font-heading font-medium group-data-[size=sm]/card:text-sm text-base">EURUSD<!-- --> <span class="font-data text-sm font-normal text-muted-foreground">— <!-- -->Held out test set, never trained on (1h, horizon 12, submitted 2026-07-10) -- v2 CORRECTED backtest (supersedes entry 0's overlap-inflated Sharpe -0.19). 2024-25 test window. Sharpe -2.52, -19.7% vs buy-hold +6.1%. No edge -- confirms and sharpens the original rejection.</span></div><p class="mt-2 inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium border-rose-400/30 bg-rose-500/10 text-rose-300">Underperformed buy & hold</p></div><svg width="140" height="40" viewBox="0 0 140 40" class="text-rose-400" preserveAspectRatio="none"><line x1="0" x2="140" y1="3.4517859647482396" y2="3.4517859647482396" stroke="currentColor" stroke-opacity="0.18" stroke-dasharray="2 2"></line><path d="M0.00,3.45 L2.37,3.37 L4.75,2.68 L7.12,1.85 L9.49,0.79 L11.86,0.88 L14.24,0.75 L16.61,1.01 L18.98,2.34 L21.36,3.80 L23.73,5.31 L26.10,6.22 L28.47,7.01 L30.85,8.08 L33.22,9.90 L35.59,10.37 L37.97,12.45 L40.34,10.77 L42.71,9.39 L45.08,11.11 L47.46,10.05 L49.83,11.41 L52.20,11.49 L54.58,11.36 L56.95,11.75 L59.32,10.35 L61.69,13.59 L64.07,12.06 L66.44,10.82 L68.81,11.68 L71.19,13.43 L73.56,13.16 L75.93,12.38 L78.31,17.90 L80.68,16.73 L83.05,19.48 L85.42,20.18 L87.80,20.88 L90.17,27.12 L92.54,27.50 L94.92,29.72 L97.29,34.68 L99.66,34.62 L102.03,35.42 L104.41,36.35 L106.78,36.56 L109.15,35.20 L111.53,37.83 L113.90,37.16 L116.27,38.47 L118.64,36.13 L121.02,36.22 L123.39,35.31 L125.76,35.55 L128.14,35.53 L130.51,35.17 L132.88,35.83 L135.25,36.89 L137.63,39.25 L140.00,38.97 L140,40 L0,40 Z" fill="currentColor" fill-opacity="0.12" stroke="none"></path><path d="M0.00,3.45 L2.37,3.37 L4.75,2.68 L7.12,1.85 L9.49,0.79 L11.86,0.88 L14.24,0.75 L16.61,1.01 L18.98,2.34 L21.36,3.80 L23.73,5.31 L26.10,6.22 L28.47,7.01 L30.85,8.08 L33.22,9.90 L35.59,10.37 L37.97,12.45 L40.34,10.77 L42.71,9.39 L45.08,11.11 L47.46,10.05 L49.83,11.41 L52.20,11.49 L54.58,11.36 L56.95,11.75 L59.32,10.35 L61.69,13.59 L64.07,12.06 L66.44,10.82 L68.81,11.68 L71.19,13.43 L73.56,13.16 L75.93,12.38 L78.31,17.90 L80.68,16.73 L83.05,19.48 L85.42,20.18 L87.80,20.88 L90.17,27.12 L92.54,27.50 L94.92,29.72 L97.29,34.68 L99.66,34.62 L102.03,35.42 L104.41,36.35 L106.78,36.56 L109.15,35.20 L111.53,37.83 L113.90,37.16 L116.27,38.47 L118.64,36.13 L121.02,36.22 L123.39,35.31 L125.76,35.55 L128.14,35.53 L130.51,35.17 L132.88,35.83 L135.25,36.89 L137.63,39.25 L140.00,38.97" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.5" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-linecap="round"></path></svg></div></div><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="grid grid-cols-2 gap-y-6 sm:grid-cols-3 lg:grid-cols-6"><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Test bars</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">12,445</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Trades taken</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-foreground">1,691</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Strategy return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-19.73%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Buy & hold return</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-emerald-400">6.14%</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Sharpe (annualized)</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-2xl font-semibold text-rose-400">-2.52</p></div><div><p class="font-data text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/60">Max drawdown</p><p class="font-data mt-1.5 tracking-tight text-lg font-medium text-rose-400">-21.68%</p></div></div><div data-orientation="horizontal" role="separator" aria-orientation="horizontal" data-slot="separator" class="shrink-0 data-horizontal:h-px data-horizontal:w-full data-vertical:w-px data-vertical:self-stretch my-6 bg-white/[0.06]"></div><div class="recharts-responsive-container" style="width:100%;height:280px;min-width:0"><div style="width:0;overflow-x:visible"></div></div><div class="mt-4 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4"><span class="font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground">Win rate<!-- --> <span class="font-semibold text-emerald-400">50.1<!-- -->%</span></span><span class="text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.</span></div></div></div></div></div><!--$--><!--/$--></div></main><section aria-label="Notifications alt+T" tabindex="-1" aria-live="polite" aria-relevant="additions text" aria-atomic="false"></section><script src="/_next/static/chunks/1kbvvjb8xiuz5.js" id="_R_" 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flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4\",\"children\":[[\"$\",\"span\",null,{\"className\":\"font-data text-xs text-muted-foreground\",\"children\":[\"Win rate\",\" \",[\"$\",\"span\",null,{\"className\":\"font-semibold text-emerald-400\",\"children\":[\"50.1\",\"%\"]}]]}],[\"$\",\"span\",null,{\"className\":\"text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground\",\"children\":\"Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.\"}]]}]]}]\n"])</script></body></html> |