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text-foreground md:flex md:flex-row"><div hidden=""><!--$--><!--/$--></div><div class="sticky top-0 h-screen px-3 py-4 hidden md:flex md:flex-col bg-neutral-100 dark:bg-neutral-800 w-[228px] flex-shrink-0 justify-between gap-10 !bg-[oklch(0.155_0_0)]"><div class="flex flex-1 flex-col overflow-x-hidden overflow-y-auto"><a class="flex items-center gap-2 py-1" href="/"><div class="flex h-7 w-7 shrink-0 items-center justify-center rounded-md bg-neutral-200 text-sm font-semibold text-neutral-900">J</div><span class="whitespace-pre text-sm font-medium tracking-tight text-neutral-100">Jolash</span></a><div class="mt-6 flex flex-col"><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Research</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 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href="/hypotheses"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-flask-conical h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-100" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M14 2v6a2 2 0 0 0 .245.96l5.51 10.08A2 2 0 0 1 18 22H6a2 2 0 0 1-1.755-2.96l5.51-10.08A2 2 0 0 0 10 8V2"></path><path d="M6.453 15h11.094"></path><path d="M8.5 2h7"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Hypotheses</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/backtests"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-chart-line h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M3 3v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h16"></path><path d="m19 9-5 5-4-4-3 3"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Backtest Results</span></a></div></div><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Risk & Execution</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/risk"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" 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1.11z"></path><path d="M21.946 12.013H2.054"></path><path d="M6 16h.01"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Data Health</span></a><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/agents"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-users h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M16 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-4-4H6a4 4 0 0 0-4 4v2"></path><path d="M16 3.128a4 4 0 0 1 0 7.744"></path><path d="M22 21v-2a4 4 0 0 0-3-3.87"></path><circle cx="9" cy="7" r="4"></circle></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Team & Agents</span></a></div></div><div><div class="overflow-hidden px-2.5 pt-4 pb-1 first:pt-0"><span class="whitespace-pre text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-wider text-neutral-600">Compliance</span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-0.5"><a class="flex items-center justify-start gap-2 group/sidebar rounded-lg px-2.5 py-1.5 -mx-0.5 text-[13px] font-normal transition-all duration-150 text-neutral-400 hover:bg-white/[0.035] hover:text-neutral-200" href="/compliance"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="1.75" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-list h-4 w-4 shrink-0 transition-colors text-neutral-500" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="M12 11h4"></path><path d="M12 16h4"></path><path d="M8 11h.01"></path><path d="M8 16h.01"></path></svg><span class="text-neutral-700 dark:text-neutral-200 text-sm group-hover/sidebar:translate-x-1 transition duration-150 whitespace-pre inline-block !p-0 !m-0">Audit Trail</span></a></div></div></div></div></div><div class="h-10 px-4 py-4 flex flex-row md:hidden items-center justify-between bg-neutral-100 dark:bg-neutral-800 w-full"><div class="flex justify-end z-20 w-full"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-menu text-neutral-800 dark:text-neutral-200 cursor-pointer" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M4 5h16"></path><path d="M4 12h16"></path><path d="M4 19h16"></path></svg></div></div><main class="flex-1 overflow-x-hidden md:m-2 md:rounded-2xl md:border md:border-white/[0.08] bg-[oklch(0.185_0_0)] md:min-h-[calc(100vh-1rem)]"><div class="mx-auto w-full max-w-6xl px-6 py-8 md:px-10"><div><div class="mb-8"><p class="font-data mb-1.5 text-[10px] font-medium uppercase tracking-[0.2em] text-muted-foreground/60">Research · Hypothesis Log</p><h1 class="text-2xl font-medium tracking-tight text-foreground">Hypotheses</h1><p class="mt-1.5 text-sm font-normal leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Specific, testable trading ideas — proposed by hand for now, by the Research Agent once it's built.</p></div><div class="font-data mb-6 flex flex-wrap gap-2 text-[11px]"><span class="rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.02] px-2.5 py-1 text-muted-foreground/80">Promising<!-- --> <span class="text-foreground/90">1</span></span><span class="rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.02] px-2.5 py-1 text-muted-foreground/80">Testing<!-- --> <span class="text-foreground/90">8</span></span><span class="rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.02] px-2.5 py-1 text-muted-foreground/80">Proposed<!-- --> <span class="text-foreground/90">1</span></span><span class="rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.02] px-2.5 py-1 text-muted-foreground/80">No edge found<!-- --> <span class="text-foreground/90">19</span></span></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) overflow-hidden rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel mb-6"><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><div class="mb-3 flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-book-open h-4 w-4 text-primary/70" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M12 7v14"></path><path d="M3 18a1 1 0 0 1-1-1V4a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h5a4 4 0 0 1 4 4 4 4 0 0 1 4-4h5a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v13a1 1 0 0 1-1 1h-6a3 3 0 0 0-3 3 3 3 0 0 0-3-3z"></path></svg><h3 class="text-sm font-medium text-foreground">What these numbers actually mean</h3></div><div class="grid grid-cols-1 gap-4 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground sm:grid-cols-2"><div><p class="font-medium text-foreground/90">Information Coefficient (IC)</p><p class="mt-1">Does this feature actually line up with what happens next? 0 means no relationship at all (useless). A real edge is usually<!-- --> <em>small</em>— 0.02 to 0.05 is considered notable in real finance. If a number looks huge, that's a reason for more suspicion, not less.</p></div><div><p class="font-medium text-foreground/90">Quick model accuracy (AUC)</p><p class="mt-1">0.50 = a coin flip, no better than guessing. 1.00 = perfect. Anything meaningfully above 0.50 (even 0.55) can be a real signal in finance — markets are hard. At or below 0.50 means no signal was found.</p></div><div><p class="font-medium text-foreground/90">Promote vs. reject</p><p class="mt-1">"Promote" just means an idea cleared a low, cheap first-pass bar — it is <em>not</em>a confirmed edge, only a candidate worth the expensive full test. "Reject" means it didn't even clear that low bar, so we skip the expensive test and save the time.</p></div><div><p class="font-medium text-foreground/90">Cheap screen vs. full validation</p><p class="mt-1">The cheap screen (seconds) kills obviously-dead ideas fast. The full pipeline (on the Backtest Results page) is the real, slow, honest test — real holdout data, real trading costs, real Sharpe/drawdown. Only trust a hypothesis once it's survived that step.</p></div></div></div></div><div data-slot="card" data-size="default" class="group/card flex flex-col gap-(--card-spacing) overflow-hidden rounded-xl bg-card py-(--card-spacing) text-sm text-card-foreground ring-1 ring-foreground/10 [--card-spacing:--spacing(4)] has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 has-[>img:first-child]:pt-0 data-[size=sm]:[--card-spacing:--spacing(3)] data-[size=sm]:has-data-[slot=card-footer]:pb-0 *:[img:first-child]:rounded-t-xl *:[img:last-child]:rounded-b-xl glass-panel mb-6"><div data-slot="card-content" class="px-(--card-spacing) pt-6"><button class="flex w-full items-center justify-between text-left"><div class="flex items-center gap-2"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-code-xml h-4 w-4 text-primary/70" aria-hidden="true"><path d="m18 16 4-4-4-4"></path><path d="m6 8-4 4 4 4"></path><path d="m14.5 4-5 16"></path></svg><h3 class="text-sm font-medium text-foreground">The actual code every hypothesis below uses</h3></div><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-chevron-down h-4 w-4 text-muted-foreground transition-transform" aria-hidden="true"><path d="m6 9 6 6 6-6"></path></svg></button><p class="mt-3 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Every hypothesis on this page uses this exact feature set (only pair, timeframe, and horizon change between them) — from<!-- --> <code class="rounded bg-white/[0.06] px-1 py-0.5">scripts/build_signal_features.py</code>. All features are computed only from data at-or-before time t; the label is the only thing allowed to look forward.</p></div></div><div class="space-y-8"><div><div class="mb-2.5 flex items-center gap-2"><span class="font-data text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-muted-foreground/60">Promising</span><span class="h-px flex-1 bg-white/[0.06]"></span><span class="font-data text-[10px] text-muted-foreground/40">1</span></div><div class="space-y-2"><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-emerald-400/70"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCHF 4h-ahead direction (cheap screen)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->USDCHF<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->4<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Full validation (corrected v2 backtest, 2026-07-10): Sharpe 0.83 on 2024-25 (+8.2% vs buy-hold's -5.5%, max DD -5.2%), and re-tested on a separate 2021-22 window: Sharpe 1.98 (+22.7% vs buy-hold's +4.9%, max DD -4.0%). Beat buy-and-hold both times on two non-overlapping periods -- the one real candidate so far. Expectation to quote going forward: Sharpe ~0.8-1.0, not the flashier second-window number.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCHF</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (train_signal_model.py + backtest_signal_model.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-emerald-300"><span class="status-dot text-emerald-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Promising</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">-0.0390</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:40.25%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.5237</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:36.85000000000002%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="mb-2.5 flex items-center gap-2"><span class="font-data text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-muted-foreground/60">Testing</span><span class="h-px flex-1 bg-white/[0.06]"></span><span class="font-data text-[10px] text-muted-foreground/40">8</span></div><div class="space-y-2"><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">EURUSD 4h horizon=12 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->EURUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->12<!-- --> <!-- -->4h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Captures the London/New York session overlap, which often brings increased volatility and clearer directional moves. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">EURUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->12 4h bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">-0.0578</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:35.550000000000004%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.4674</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:8.699999999999985%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair EURUSD --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 4h --horizon 12 --out-dir data/validated/EURUSD_4h_12 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/EURUSD_4h_12 --out data/validated/EURUSD_4h_12/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/EURUSD_4h_12 --model data/validated/EURUSD_4h_12/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair EURUSD --timeframe 4h --horizon 12 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDJPY 1D horizon=24 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->USDJPY<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->24<!-- --> <!-- -->1D<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Daily timeframe integrates macroeconomic factors and risk-sentiment shifts influencing USD/JPY over a broader horizon. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDJPY</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->24 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">+<!-- -->0.0839</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:70.97500000000001%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.5439</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:46.95000000000002%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair USDJPY --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 1D --horizon 24 --out-dir data/validated/USDJPY_1D_24 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/USDJPY_1D_24 --out data/validated/USDJPY_1D_24/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/USDJPY_1D_24 --model data/validated/USDJPY_1D_24/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair USDJPY --timeframe 1D --horizon 24 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">AUDUSD 4h horizon=12 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->AUDUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->12<!-- --> <!-- -->4h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Aligns with Asia-Pacific trading hours, capturing market reaction to Australian economic data releases. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">AUDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->12 4h bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">-0.0307</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:42.325%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.5019</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:25.95%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair AUDUSD --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 4h --horizon 12 --out-dir data/validated/AUDUSD_4h_12 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/AUDUSD_4h_12 --out data/validated/AUDUSD_4h_12/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/AUDUSD_4h_12 --model data/validated/AUDUSD_4h_12/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair AUDUSD --timeframe 4h --horizon 12 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCAD 1D horizon=24 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->USDCAD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->24<!-- --> <!-- -->1D<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Daily timeframe aligns with oil price movements and U.S. economic indicators that significantly impact USD/CAD. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCAD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->24 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">-0.1086</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:22.85%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.6223</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:86.14999999999998%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair USDCAD --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 1D --horizon 24 --out-dir data/validated/USDCAD_1D_24 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/USDCAD_1D_24 --out data/validated/USDCAD_1D_24/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/USDCAD_1D_24 --model data/validated/USDCAD_1D_24/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair USDCAD --timeframe 1D --horizon 24 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">GBPUSD 1D horizon=24 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->GBPUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->24<!-- --> <!-- -->1D<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Daily analysis captures broader market sentiment from significant UK/US economic data releases over a longer horizon. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">GBPUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->24 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">+<!-- -->0.1535</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:88.375%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.4680</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:9.000000000000007%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair GBPUSD --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 1D --horizon 24 --out-dir data/validated/GBPUSD_1D_24 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/GBPUSD_1D_24 --out data/validated/GBPUSD_1D_24/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/GBPUSD_1D_24 --model data/validated/GBPUSD_1D_24/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair GBPUSD --timeframe 1D --horizon 24 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">EURUSD 1h horizon=12 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->EURUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->12<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">The 1-hour timeframe with a 12-bar horizon can capitalize on intraday price swings during the overlapping London and New York sessions, where liquidity and volatility peak. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">EURUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->12 1h bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">+<!-- -->0.0310</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:57.75%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.5250</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:37.50000000000001%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair EURUSD --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 1h --horizon 12 --out-dir data/validated/EURUSD_1h_12 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/EURUSD_1h_12 --out data/validated/EURUSD_1h_12/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/EURUSD_1h_12 --model data/validated/EURUSD_1h_12/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair EURUSD --timeframe 1h --horizon 12 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCHF 4h horizon=24 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->USDCHF<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->24<!-- --> <!-- -->4h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">The 4-hour timeframe allows for capturing momentum driven by Swiss economic releases and US market shifts -- a second, independent USDCHF signal worth checking given USDCHF is already our one confirmed candidate. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCHF</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->24 4h bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">+<!-- -->0.0888</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:72.2%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.4726</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:11.300000000000004%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair USDCHF --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 4h --horizon 24 --out-dir data/validated/USDCHF_4h_24 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/USDCHF_4h_24 --out data/validated/USDCHF_4h_24/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/USDCHF_4h_24 --model data/validated/USDCHF_4h_24/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair USDCHF --timeframe 4h --horizon 24 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-amber-400/60"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">AUDUSD 1D horizon=12 (Research Agent)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->AUDUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->12<!-- --> <!-- -->1D<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">A daily timeframe for AUD/USD can incorporate longer-term trends influenced by commodity prices and Australian economic indicators. Cleared the cheap-screen bar -- queued for full walk-forward validation, not yet confirmed. Small sample size at this timeframe means real skepticism is warranted.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">AUDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->12 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (OpenRouter gpt-4o-mini)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><span class="status-dot text-amber-400 status-dot-live" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Testing</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">+<!-- -->0.1150</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:78.75%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.4940</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:21.999999999999993%"></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="mt-3 rounded-lg border border-amber-400/20 bg-amber-400/[0.03] p-3"><div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-1.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-amber-300"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-clipboard-check h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="8" height="4" x="8" y="2" rx="1" ry="1"></rect><path d="M16 4h2a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v14a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H6a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h2"></path><path d="m9 14 2 2 4-4"></path></svg>Josh's job: run the real test on this one</div><p class="mb-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Copy this, paste it in your terminal, hit enter. It'll ask for an optional one-line note at the end, then push the real result straight to the Backtest Results page — no screenshot needed.</p><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-3 rounded-lg border border-white/[0.08] bg-black/30 px-4 py-3"><code class="whitespace-pre-wrap break-all font-mono text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-neutral-300">source .venv/bin/activate && \
python scripts/build_signal_features.py --pair AUDUSD --csv-root data/raw/forex/extracted --timeframe 1D --horizon 12 --out-dir data/validated/AUDUSD_1D_12 && \
python scripts/train_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/AUDUSD_1D_12 --out data/validated/AUDUSD_1D_12/model.joblib && \
python scripts/backtest_signal_model.py --data-dir data/validated/AUDUSD_1D_12 --model data/validated/AUDUSD_1D_12/model.joblib --spread-pips 1.0 --confidence-threshold 0.55 \
--pair AUDUSD --timeframe 1D --horizon 12 \
--hf-results-repo KUTech/trading-llm-validation-results</code><button class="flex shrink-0 items-center gap-1.5 rounded-md border border-white/[0.1] px-2.5 py-1.5 text-xs text-neutral-300 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.06]"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-copy h-3.5 w-3.5" aria-hidden="true"><rect width="14" height="14" x="8" y="8" rx="2" ry="2"></rect><path d="M4 16c-1.1 0-2-.9-2-2V4c0-1.1.9-2 2-2h10c1.1 0 2 .9 2 2"></path></svg>Copy</button></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="mb-2.5 flex items-center gap-2"><span class="font-data text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-muted-foreground/60">Proposed</span><span class="h-px flex-1 bg-white/[0.06]"></span><span class="font-data text-[10px] text-muted-foreground/40">1</span></div><div class="space-y-2"><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-sky-400/50"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">Triple-barrier labeled setups (profit target / stop-loss)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Relabel EURUSD using a profit-target/stop-loss barrier instead of a fixed time horizon, to reduce label noise before testing for a directional edge.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">EURUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->variable (barrier hit)</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Research Agent (not yet built)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-sky-300"><span class="status-dot text-sky-400" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>Proposed</span></div></div></div></div></div><div><div class="mb-2.5 flex items-center gap-2"><span class="font-data text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-[0.18em] text-muted-foreground/60">No edge found</span><span class="h-px flex-1 bg-white/[0.06]"></span><span class="font-data text-[10px] text-muted-foreground/40">19</span></div><div class="space-y-2"><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">EURUSD 4h-ahead direction from basic technical indicators</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Predict the sign of EURUSD's return 4 hours ahead using SMA trend, momentum, rolling volatility, RSI, and recent high/low range as features, on hourly candles.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">EURUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Manual (v0 pipeline)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">AUDUSD 4h-ahead direction (cheap screen)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->AUDUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->4<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Full validation (corrected v2 backtest): Sharpe -1.43, -13.8% return vs buy-hold's -2.0%, 53.3% episode win rate. The cheap-screen promotion was a false positive -- doesn't hold up under real testing.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">AUDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (train_signal_model.py + backtest_signal_model.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">-0.0317</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:42.075%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.5085</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:29.24999999999997%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">NZDUSD 4h-ahead direction (cheap screen)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->NZDUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->4<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Below the cheap-screen bar -- rejected before spending the expensive full validation budget.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">NZDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Batch cheap-screen (screen_hypothesis.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">-0.0269</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:43.275%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.5087</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:29.350000000000016%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCAD 4h-ahead direction (cheap screen)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->USDCAD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->4<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Below the cheap-screen bar -- rejected before spending the expensive full validation budget.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCAD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Batch cheap-screen (screen_hypothesis.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">-0.0257</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:43.575%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.5064</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:28.199999999999974%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">GBPUSD 4h-ahead direction (cheap screen)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->GBPUSD<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->4<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Full validation (corrected v2 backtest): Sharpe -0.71, -3.1% return, buy-and-hold did better (+5.7%). Pre-correction this read as technically positive (Sharpe 0.29) -- the fix clears up the ambiguity into a clean rejection.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">GBPUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (train_signal_model.py + backtest_signal_model.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">-0.0194</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:45.15%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.5215</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:35.74999999999998%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDJPY 4h-ahead direction (cheap screen)</h3><p class="mt-1.5 text-[13px] leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground/90">Tests whether <!-- -->USDJPY<!-- -->'s recent momentum, volatility, RSI, and distance from its 20-period high/low can predict which direction price moves over the next <!-- -->4<!-- --> <!-- -->1h<!-- --> bars.</p><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Below the cheap-screen bar -- rejected before spending the expensive full validation budget.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDJPY</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4h</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Batch cheap-screen (screen_hypothesis.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">-0.0188</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:45.3%"></div></div></div><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs text-neutral-500">0.4974</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-neutral-400" style="left:23.7%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCHF 1D horizon=20, central-bank sentiment (LLM-scored Fed/SNB statements)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">LLM-scored hawkish/dovish stance from Fed and SNB policy statements (cbank_sentiment_diff, cbank_sentiment_diff_chg_63d) on the same USDCHF/1D/h=20 combo as the rejected carry features below. Full validation: Sharpe 0.44 on 2024-25 (+6.1% vs buy-hold's -5.3%, 100% bars in-market, 5 trade episodes) but Sharpe -0.66 on the 2021-22 robustness window (-7.8% vs buy-hold's +4.9%) -- failed robustness, same pattern as every 1D/h=20 carry candidate below. The one place an LLM has a real comparative advantage in this pipeline (reading text), tested the same way as everything else -- and still didn't hold up.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCHF</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (fetch_cbank_sentiment.py + train_signal_model.py + backtest_signal_model_v2.py)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCHF 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Backtest shows Sharpe 0.32 (+4.5% vs buy-hold -5.3%), but the model took exactly 1 trade episode for the entire 500-bar test window (in-market 100% of the time, one static position held throughout). Not a timing strategy -- a single directional bet that happened to be right. The '100% win rate' is trivially true with n=1 and should never be quoted as a real result.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCHF</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">NZDUSD 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Promising on 2024-25 (Sharpe 0.77, +13.6% vs buy-hold's -8.4%, 60 episodes) but did not replicate on 2021-22: val AUC 0.31 (far worse than random, majority-class baseline 0.65), Sharpe -0.002 (flat), max DD -17.9%. Same lucky-window pattern as AUDUSD (1D, h=12) on 2026-07-10.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">NZDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12 -- failed robustness)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">GBPUSD 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">The strongest cheap-screen hit of the whole carry batch -- rate_diff_chg_63d cleared the IC bar easily (+0.13). Full model didn't replicate it: val AUC 0.513 (barely above chance), backtest Sharpe -0.70 (-8.7% vs buy-hold +4.7%, max DD -14.2%, in-market 92% of bars). A clean example of a cheap-screen promote not being a confirmed edge, even with a mechanistically plausible feature.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">GBPUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">+<!-- -->0.1300</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:82.5%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDJPY 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">rate_diff_chg_63d was the best feature here too (IC -0.14), but val AUC came back 0.454 -- worse than random. Backtest Sharpe -0.04 (-1.7% vs buy-hold +9.5%, max DD -12.2%, in-market 95% of bars).</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDJPY</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">IC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">-0.1400</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:42.5%;width:14.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:50%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:15%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">EURUSD 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Underperforms buy-hold with weak Sharpe: 0.18 (+1.8% vs buy-hold +6.1%). Doesn't beat a coin flip in any meaningful sense.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">EURUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCAD 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Negative Sharpe -0.19 (-2.1% vs buy-hold +5.1%).</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCAD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">AUDUSD 1D horizon=20, carry (rate_diff) features</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Sharpe 0.14 (+1.6% vs buy-hold -3.2%) -- only ahead because buy-hold itself was negative that window, not a real edge.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">AUDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->20 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (carry features, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCHF 4h horizon=24 (technical indicators)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Old (v1, overlapping-return) backtest showed Sharpe 1.39 / +118% -- entirely an artifact of the overlap bug (val AUC 0.44, worse than random). Corrected v2 backtest: Sharpe -0.13 (2024-25) and -0.42 (2021-22). A second, independent USDCHF timeframe that did NOT replicate the confirmed 1h/h=4 edge.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCHF</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->24 4h bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (rejected 2026-07-10)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">AUDUSD 1D horizon=12 (technical indicators)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Promising on 2024-25 (Sharpe 1.09, val AUC 0.63) but did not replicate on 2021-22 (Sharpe -0.46, val AUC 0.46). Likely a lucky window -- the same failure mode later seen in the 1D/h=20 carry batch.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">AUDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->12 1D bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Full validation (rejected 2026-07-10 -- failed robustness)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span><div class="w-44 space-y-2"><div><div class="flex items-baseline justify-between"><span class="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-muted-foreground/70">AUC</span><span class="font-data text-xs font-semibold text-emerald-400">0.6300</span></div><div class="relative mt-1 h-1 w-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.06]"><div class="absolute h-full rounded-full bg-white/[0.04]" style="left:24.999999999999993%;width:10.000000000000007%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-y-1/2 bg-neutral-600" style="left:24.999999999999993%"></div><div class="absolute top-1/2 h-2 w-2 -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 rounded-full bg-emerald-400" style="left:89.99999999999999%"></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">USDCHF 1h h=4: exclude NY session hours (16-21 UTC)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">A session breakdown of the confirmed model showed it both trading most (64% in-market vs. its usual ~35%) and losing money during NY hours specifically. Excluding NY hours looked great on 2024-25 (Sharpe 0.83 -> 1.68, +8.2% -> +14.9%) but failed robustness on 2021-22 (Sharpe 1.98 -> 0.54, +22.7% -> +5.0%, max DD got worse -4.0% -> -5.1%). The session pattern was specific to one window, not persistent -- this filter is NOT applied to the live model.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">USDCHF</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->4 1h bars, session filter test</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Robustness check (backtest_signal_model_v2.py --exclude-utc-hours, rejected 2026-07-13)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">Liquidity sweep-and-reject fade (cross-pair)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">"Everyone does X, so X should reverse" is a pattern, not a mechanism -- rejected at the cheap-screen stage before spending full-validation budget. 185 sweep events at 4h (excess return vs. baseline t=0.78, not significant) and 51 events at 1D (t=-1.33, wrong sign). See scripts/scan_sweep_reversal.py.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">Multi-pair</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->event-based (4h / 1D)</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Cheap screen (scan_sweep_reversal.py, rejected 2026-07-12)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot text-neutral-500" style="background-color:currentColor"></span>No edge found</span></div></div></div><div class="border-l-2 rounded-r-lg bg-white/[0.015] px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-white/[0.03] border-l-neutral-600/40 opacity-70 hover:opacity-100"><div class="flex items-start justify-between gap-6"><div class="min-w-0 flex-1"><h3 class="text-sm font-medium leading-snug text-foreground">NZDUSD 4h horizon=12 (technical indicators)</h3><p class="mt-1 text-sm leading-relaxed text-muted-foreground">Rejected at the cheap-screen stage -- never reached full validation.</p><div class="font-data mt-2.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2.5 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-muted-foreground/70"><span class="rounded bg-white/[0.05] px-1.5 py-0.5 text-neutral-300">NZDUSD</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span>horizon <!-- -->12 4h bars</span><span class="text-muted-foreground/30">·</span><span class="truncate">Batch cheap-screen (screen_hypothesis.py, rejected)</span></div></div><div class="flex shrink-0 flex-col items-end gap-3"><span class="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap rounded-full border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-0.5 text-[11px] font-medium text-neutral-400"><span class="status-dot 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