diff --git "a/backtests.html" "b/backtests.html" --- "a/backtests.html" +++ "b/backtests.html" @@ -1 +1 @@ -Jolash

Research · Validation

Backtest Results

Honest, cost-inclusive results on held-out data the model never trained on. No cherry-picking.

EURUSD — 2024-01-02 -> 2025-12-31 (held out, never trained on)

Underperformed buy & hold

Test bars

12,454

Trades taken

3,816

Strategy return

-24.47%

Buy & hold return

6.26%

Sharpe (annualized)

-0.86

Max drawdown

-32.94%

Win rate 48.7%Below 50% win rate, consistent with the Sharpe/return numbers above. This confirms basic technical indicators carry no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.
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Research · Validation

Backtest Results

Honest, cost-inclusive results on held-out data the model never trained on. No cherry-picking.

USDCHF — 2024-01-02 -> 2025-12-31 (held out, never trained on)

Outperformed buy & hold

Test bars

12,453

Trades taken

4,275

Strategy return

61.67%

Buy & hold return

-5.50%

Sharpe (annualized)

1.29

Max drawdown

-15.91%

Win rate 54.8%Positive Sharpe and beat buy-and-hold -- a real candidate worth further scrutiny, not yet a confirmed edge on its own.
EURUSD — 2024-01-02 -> 2025-12-31 (held out, never trained on)

Underperformed buy & hold

Test bars

12,454

Trades taken

3,816

Strategy return

-24.47%

Buy & hold return

6.26%

Sharpe (annualized)

-0.86

Max drawdown

-32.94%

Win rate 48.7%Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.
GBPUSD — 2024-01-02 -> 2025-12-31 (held out, never trained on)

Underperformed buy & hold

Test bars

12,451

Trades taken

1,784

Strategy return

4.88%

Buy & hold return

5.70%

Sharpe (annualized)

0.29

Max drawdown

-9.02%

Win rate 51.8%Technically positive Sharpe, but a simple buy-and-hold still did better -- not compelling enough to pursue as-is.
AUDUSD — 2024-01-02 -> 2025-12-31 (held out, never trained on)

Underperformed buy & hold

Test bars

12,454

Trades taken

3,185

Strategy return

-12.12%

Buy & hold return

-1.99%

Sharpe (annualized)

-0.30

Max drawdown

-26.70%

Win rate 50.2%Negative risk-adjusted return, consistent with the win rate above. Confirms no exploitable edge for this pair/horizon after realistic spread costs.
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