Spaces:
Running
Running
Update README.md
Browse files
README.md
CHANGED
|
@@ -18,14 +18,6 @@ Define your criteria in Python, and our SDK treats real-world outcomes as the la
|
|
| 18 |
|
| 19 |
---
|
| 20 |
|
| 21 |
-
## How It Works
|
| 22 |
-
|
| 23 |
-
We generate grounded, model-ready training data from documents or public sources (Google News, SEC filings, market data). You define your criteria in Python, and our SDK uses the **future as the label** — turning messy, timestamped history into training signal automatically. No labeling pipelines, no extraction, no human annotation.
|
| 24 |
-
|
| 25 |
-
This approach has been used to beat frontier AIs 100x larger on prediction-market benchmarks, and has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, risk estimation, and policy prediction.
|
| 26 |
-
|
| 27 |
-
---
|
| 28 |
-
|
| 29 |
## Research & Results
|
| 30 |
|
| 31 |
- **[SEC Risk Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.19189)**: Foresight learning on raw SEC filings trains a 32B model to outperform GPT-5 at predicting public company risks.
|
|
@@ -34,12 +26,3 @@ This approach has been used to beat frontier AIs 100x larger on prediction-marke
|
|
| 34 |
- **[Foresight-32B vs. Frontier LLMs](https://blog.lightningrod.ai/p/foresight-32b-beats-frontier-llms-on-live-polymarket-predictions)**: Live demonstration beating frontier models on Polymarket predictions.
|
| 35 |
|
| 36 |
Foresight-32B is consistently top-ranked on [ForecastBench](https://www.forecastbench.org/tournament/) and [ProphetArena Sports](https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard).
|
| 37 |
-
|
| 38 |
-
---
|
| 39 |
-
|
| 40 |
-
## Models & Datasets
|
| 41 |
-
|
| 42 |
-
| Resource | Description |
|
| 43 |
-
|----------|-------------|
|
| 44 |
-
| [Trump-Forecaster](https://huggingface.co/LightningRodLabs/Trump-Forecaster) | RL-tuned gpt-oss-120b LoRA adapter for predicting Trump administration actions. Beats GPT-5 (Brier 0.194 vs 0.200). |
|
| 45 |
-
| [WWTD-2025](https://huggingface.co/datasets/LightningRodLabs/WWTD-2025) | 2,790 binary forecasting questions about U.S. policy under the Trump administration, with news context and ground-truth resolutions. |
|
|
|
|
| 18 |
|
| 19 |
---
|
| 20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 21 |
## Research & Results
|
| 22 |
|
| 23 |
- **[SEC Risk Prediction](https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.19189)**: Foresight learning on raw SEC filings trains a 32B model to outperform GPT-5 at predicting public company risks.
|
|
|
|
| 26 |
- **[Foresight-32B vs. Frontier LLMs](https://blog.lightningrod.ai/p/foresight-32b-beats-frontier-llms-on-live-polymarket-predictions)**: Live demonstration beating frontier models on Polymarket predictions.
|
| 27 |
|
| 28 |
Foresight-32B is consistently top-ranked on [ForecastBench](https://www.forecastbench.org/tournament/) and [ProphetArena Sports](https://www.prophetarena.co/leaderboard).
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|