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app.py
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################### PACKAGES
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import ccxt
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import pandas as pd
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import numpy as np
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from datetime import datetime, timedelta
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import time
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import requests
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from pytrends.request import TrendReq
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import joblib
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import gradio as gr
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from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler
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################### MODEL LOADING
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# Load XGBoost and NGBoost
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xgb_artifact = joblib.load("xgb_volatility_model.joblib")
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xgb_model = xgb_artifact["model"]
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xgb_features = xgb_artifact["feature_names"]
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ngb_artifact = joblib.load("ngb_volatility_model.joblib")
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ngb_model = ngb_artifact["model"]
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ngb_features = ngb_artifact["feature_names"]
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# Load KMeans + scaler
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kmeans_artifact = joblib.load("kmeans_model.joblib")
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kmeans_model = kmeans_artifact["model"]
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cluster_scaler = kmeans_artifact["scaler"]
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cluster_features_names = kmeans_artifact["feature_names"]
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################### FEATURE GATHERING
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def fetch_ohlcv_last_6_days(symbol="BTC/USDT", date="2026-01-18", timeframe="1d"):
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binance = ccxt.binance()
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user_date = pd.to_datetime(date)
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start_date = user_date - timedelta(days=5) # 5 days before
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since = binance.parse8601(start_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%dT00:00:00Z"))
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data = binance.fetch_ohlcv(symbol, timeframe=timeframe, since=since, limit=6)
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df = pd.DataFrame(data, columns=["timestamp","open","high","low","close","volume"])
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df["timestamp"] = pd.to_datetime(df["timestamp"], unit="ms")
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df.set_index("timestamp", inplace=True)
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return df
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def fetch_fg_last_6_days(df):
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url = "https://api.alternative.me/fng/?limit=0&format=json"
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response = requests.get(url)
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fg_df = pd.DataFrame(response.json()["data"])
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fg_df["timestamp"] = pd.to_datetime(fg_df["timestamp"], unit="s")
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fg_df.set_index("timestamp", inplace=True)
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fg_df = fg_df[["value"]].astype(float)
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fg_df.rename(columns={"value":"fg_index"}, inplace=True)
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fg_df = fg_df.reindex(df.index, method="ffill")
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df["fg_index"] = fg_df["fg_index"].values
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return df
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def fetch_google_trend_for_date(keyword="Bitcoin", target_date="2024-01-15", window=7):
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pytrends = TrendReq(hl="en-US", tz=360)
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target_date = pd.to_datetime(target_date)
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start_date = (target_date - timedelta(days=window)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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end_date = target_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
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timeframe = f"{start_date} {end_date}"
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try:
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pytrends.build_payload([keyword], timeframe=timeframe)
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df = pytrends.interest_over_time()
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if df.empty:
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return 0
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df = df.rename(columns={keyword: "trend"})
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df = df.drop(columns=["isPartial"], errors="ignore")
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df.index = pd.to_datetime(df.index)
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if target_date in df.index:
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return df.loc[target_date, "trend"]
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else:
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return 0
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except:
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return 0
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################### FEATURE ENGINEERING
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def engineer_features(df):
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df["log_return"] = np.log(df["close"] / df["close"].shift(1))
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df["hl_spread"] = df["high"] - df["low"]
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df["co_spread"] = df["close"] - df["open"]
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df["momentum_3"] = df["close"] - df["close"].shift(3)
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df["vol_change"] = df["volume"] - df["volume"].shift(1)
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df["rolling_std_5"] = df["log_return"].rolling(5).std()
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# Fill NaNs for first few rows
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df = df.fillna(0)
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return df
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################### ASSIGN CLUSTER
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def assign_cluster(df):
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cluster_features = df[cluster_features_names]
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scaled = cluster_scaler.transform(cluster_features)
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df["cluster"] = kmeans_model.predict(scaled)
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return df
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################### PREDICTION FUNCTION
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def predict_volatility(date):
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#Fetch raw data
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df = fetch_ohlcv_last_6_days(date=date)
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df = fetch_fg_last_6_days(df)
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trend_value = fetch_google_trend_for_date("Bitcoin", date)
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df["trend"] = trend_value
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df["trend"] = df["trend"].fillna(method="ffill").fillna(0)
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#Feature engineering
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df = engineer_features(df)
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#Clustering
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df = assign_cluster(df)
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#Select features for models (last row only)
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X_xgb = df.iloc[-1:][xgb_features]
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X_ngb = df.iloc[-1:][ngb_features]
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#Predict
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point = xgb_model.predict(X_xgb)[0]
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dist = ngb_model.pred_dist(X_ngb)
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low, high = dist.ppf([0.025, 0.975])[0]
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return point, low, high
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################### GRADIO INTERFACE
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def gradio_predict(date):
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point, low, high = predict_volatility(date)
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return f"Point volatility: {point:.4f}\n95% CI: [{low:.4f}, {high:.4f}]"
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demo = gr.Interface(
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fn=gradio_predict,
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inputs=gr.Textbox(label="Date (YYYY-MM-DD)"),
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outputs=gr.Textbox(label="Prediction"),
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title="Crypto Volatility Predictor",
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description="Enter a date to get predicted volatility and 95% confidence interval."
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)
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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demo.launch()
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