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docs/fiscal_knowledge.md

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 Canadian banking, personal finance, and investment reference.
 
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+# FISCAL CONTEXT INTELLIGENCE LAYER
+*Generated on: 2026-06-30T15:37:03.165Z*
+
+## 1. RBC ECONOMICS CONSUMER SPENDING TRACKER
+
+* May spending snapshot: The pace of RBC Canadian cardholder spending outside of purchases at the pumps and autos moderated in May from the previous month, but remained positive.
+* Our estimate of RBC’s core retail sales (excluding purchases of gasoline and autos) eased to 0.7% from 1.2% in April on a three-month average.
+* Higher gasoline prices continued to absorb a larger share of household budgets. However, limited pullback in spending by consumers on other goods and services implies households continue, for now, to dip into savings (or increase borrowing) to keep spending.
+* Essentials’ spending growth excluding gasoline moderated to 0.1%, but discretionary goods spending (ex-gasoline) continued to strengthen, suggesting consumers remain selective.
+* Essentials’ spending increased 1.1% in May and remained up 1.3% on a three-month average, but largely reflected price increases in spending on gasoline. Growth excluding gasoline purchases was essentially flat, suggesting elevated fuel costs may constraining household budgets for other everyday necessities.
+* Still, discretionary goods spending rose 1%, while the three-month average increased 0.7%, extending a steady improvement from near-flat readings earlier this year.
+* Clothing, shoes and related apparel remained a notable source of strength with spending rising 1.8%, and maintaining a 1% three-month average gain.
+* A 0.6% three-month average increase in household and construction-related purchases aligns with some evidence of stabilization in housing activity. It supports our view that while activity remains largely flat, some green shoots are beginning to appear in housing markets.
+* Discretionary services spending rose 0.3%, and held at a 0.5% three-month average. Dining and entertainment spending softened in May, but both remained on a positive trend.
+* Travel spending continued to lag other spending categories with the three-month average remaining negative at – 2%, suggesting households remain selective with larger discretionary purchases.
+* Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
+* Rachel Battaglia is an economist at RBC, providing forecasts for the Canadian provincial economies and analyzing key trends in housing and consumer spending.
+* RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewelers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.
+* We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.
+* Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.
+* This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. The reader is solely liable for any use of the information contained in this document and Royal Bank of Canada (“RBC”) nor any of its affiliates nor any of their respective directors, officers, employees or agents shall be held responsible for any direct or indirect damages arising from the use of this document by the reader. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.
+* This document may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of certain securities laws, which are subject to RBC’s caution regarding forward-looking statements. ESG (including climate) metrics, data and other information contained on this website are or may be based on assumptions, estimates and judgements. For cautionary statements relating to the information on this website, refer to the “Caution regarding forward-looking statements” and the “Important notice regarding this document” sections in our latest climate report or sustainability report, available at: https://www.rbc.com/community-social-impact/reporting-performance/index.html. Except as required by law, none of RBC nor any of its affiliates undertake to update any information in this document.
+
+---
+## 2. BANK OF CANADA MONETARY POLICY & RATE DATA
+
+### Latest Policy Notice: Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%
+* The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.
+* The conflict in the Middle East is now in its fourth month. The resulting increases in energy prices and disruptions in global supply chains are weighing on global economic growth and pushing up inflation. At the same time, the US administration continues to propose new tariffs and trade policy uncertainty remains elevated.
+* In the United States, economic growth remains solid, supported by consumption and AI‑related investment. In the euro area, growth is subdued, with higher energy prices weighing on activity. China’s economic growth continues to be supported by strong exports.
+* Canadian financial conditions have loosened since the April Monetary Policy Report. Global equity markets have been buoyant and bond yields remain volatile. The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar and other currencies.
+* In Canada, GDP edged down by 0.1% in the first quarter, weaker than expected at the time of the April MPR. Consumer spending grew 1.4% but government spending unexpectedly declined. Housing activity also declined and business investment remained weak. Exports fell while imports rose strongly as inventories were rebuilt. Employment was up in May, but looking through monthly volatility, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year. The unemployment rate continues to fluctuate in the 6 ½%-7% range with the most recent reading at 6.6% in May.
+* Recent data suggests that growth will resume in the second quarter but, even with some rebound, the economy is expected to remain in excess supply.
+* As expected, CPI inflation rose in April, reaching 2.8%. The increase reflects energy prices, both higher oil prices and the impact of the elimination of the consumer carbon tax falling out of the 12-month rate of inflation. So far, there has been limited evidence of broad-based pass-through of higher energy prices to other consumer prices. Measures of core inflation have moved down to around 2% and the share of CPI components growing above 3% is close to its historical average. Food price inflation moderated but remains high, and shelter inflation continued to slow. With global oil prices still elevated—roughly $10 a barrel above our April MPR assumptions—total inflation is expected to hover around 3% in the near term before easing gradually towards 2%.
+* Against this overall backdrop, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%.  Economic activity in Canada has been weak and uncertainty about US trade policy persists. The conflict in the Middle East is ongoing and oil prices remain elevated. Governing Council is continuing to look through the war’s near-term impact on headline inflation, but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.
+* The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 15, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.
+
+---
+
+## 3. GOVERNMENT OF CANADA REVENUE & TAX LIMITS (2026)
+* **TFSA Limit:** The official Tax-Free Savings Account limit for the year 2026 is exactly $7,000. Cumulative space since 2009 equals $109,000.
+* **RRSP Cap:** Registered Retirement Savings Plan dollar ceiling is $33,810 (capped at 18% of prior earned calendar income).
+* **Macro Consumption Growth Baseline:** Real consumption profiles tracking overall national baseline expansion curves at +2.3%.
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 ## Who are you? What is your name?
 
 I'm FISCAL, a friendly AI assistant focused on Canadian banking, personal finance, and investments. My name is FISCAL. You can call me FISCAL. I'm here to help you with everyday money topics — chequing and savings accounts, credit cards and credit scores, mortgages, TFSAs, RRSPs, FHSAs, RESPs, GICs, ETFs, budgeting, debt repayment, and investing basics — all in a Canadian context. Ask me anything money-related and I'll do my best to help.
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 * adjust the percentages to fit your personal circumstances — the rule is a guide not a rigid requirement
 * set SMART financial goals that are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant and time-bound
 * review and adjust your budget regularly to catch unnecessary spending and adapt to life changes
-* building flexibility into your budget makes it more sustainable over the long term
+* building flexibility into your budget makes it more sustainable over the long term
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