strategy_core.py

"""
Strategic Sandbox - Core Logic Module
Data models and simulation engine for strategy evaluation
"""

import json
from typing import List, Dict, Any, Optional
from dataclasses import dataclass, asdict
import pandas as pd


@dataclass
class Goal:
    """Strategic goal definition with main metric"""
    text: str
    metric: str
    baseline: float
    target: float
    horizon: str
    unit: str = "%"


@dataclass
class Arena:
    """Market arena definition"""
    market: str
    category: str
    competitors: List[str]
    target_audience: str = ""


@dataclass
class Insight:
    """Market or consumer insight"""
    id: str
    text: str
    evidence: List[str]


@dataclass
class Hypothesis:
    """Testable hypothesis"""
    id: str
    text: str
    based_on: List[str]  # insight IDs
    metric: str
    expected_change: float


@dataclass
class Move:
    """Strategic move/action"""
    id: str
    text: str
    linked_hypothesis: str
    impact: float  # 0-1
    fit: float  # 0-1
    risk: float  # 0-1
    cost: float


@dataclass
class Metric:
    """Success metric"""
    id: str
    text: str
    baseline: float
    target: float
    unit: str


class Strategy:
    """Complete strategy model"""

    def __init__(self):
        self.goal: Optional[Goal] = None
        self.arena: Optional[Arena] = None
        self.insights: List[Insight] = []
        self.hypotheses: List[Hypothesis] = []
        self.moves: List[Move] = []
        self.metrics: List[Metric] = []

    def to_dict(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """Convert strategy to dictionary"""
        return {
            "goal": asdict(self.goal) if self.goal else None,
            "arena": asdict(self.arena) if self.arena else None,
            "insights": [asdict(i) for i in self.insights],
            "hypotheses": [asdict(h) for h in self.hypotheses],
            "moves": [asdict(m) for m in self.moves],
            "metrics": [asdict(m) for m in self.metrics]
        }

    def to_json(self, filepath: str):
        """Save strategy to JSON file"""
        with open(filepath, 'w', encoding='utf-8') as f:
            json.dump(self.to_dict(), f, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)

    @classmethod
    def from_dict(cls, data: Dict[str, Any]) -> 'Strategy':
        """Load strategy from dictionary"""
        strategy = cls()

        if data.get("goal"):
            strategy.goal = Goal(**data["goal"])
        if data.get("arena"):
            strategy.arena = Arena(**data["arena"])

        strategy.insights = [Insight(**i) for i in data.get("insights", [])]
        strategy.hypotheses = [Hypothesis(**h) for h in data.get("hypotheses", [])]
        strategy.moves = [Move(**m) for m in data.get("moves", [])]
        strategy.metrics = [Metric(**m) for m in data.get("metrics", [])]

        return strategy

    @classmethod
    def from_json(cls, filepath: str) -> 'Strategy':
        """Load strategy from JSON file"""
        with open(filepath, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
            data = json.load(f)
        return cls.from_dict(data)


class SimulationEngine:
    """Strategy simulation and scoring engine"""

    @staticmethod
    def calculate_move_score(move: Move) -> float:
        """
        Calculate move score using formula:
        score = (impact × fit) × (1 - risk) / cost
        """
        if move.cost == 0:
            return 0

        score = (move.impact * move.fit) * (1 - move.risk) / (move.cost / 100000)
        return round(score, 4)

    @staticmethod
    def simulate_strategy(strategy: Strategy) -> Dict[str, Any]:
        """
        Run simulation on complete strategy
        Returns scores, rankings, and forecasts
        """
        results = {
            "move_scores": [],
            "total_impact": 0,
            "metric_forecasts": [],
            "recommendations": []
        }

        # Calculate scores for each move
        for move in strategy.moves:
            score = SimulationEngine.calculate_move_score(move)
            results["move_scores"].append({
                "id": move.id,
                "text": move.text,
                "score": score,
                "impact": move.impact,
                "fit": move.fit,
                "risk": move.risk,
                "cost": move.cost,
                "linked_hypothesis": move.linked_hypothesis
            })

        # Sort by score
        results["move_scores"].sort(key=lambda x: x["score"], reverse=True)

        # Calculate total impact
        total_score = sum(m["score"] for m in results["move_scores"])
        results["total_impact"] = round(total_score, 4)

        # Forecast main metric (from Goal) first
        if strategy.goal:
            linked_moves = []
            linked_hypotheses = []
            for move in strategy.moves:
                for hyp in strategy.hypotheses:
                    if hyp.id == move.linked_hypothesis and hyp.metric == strategy.goal.metric:
                        linked_moves.append(move)
                        if hyp.id not in linked_hypotheses:
                            linked_hypotheses.append(hyp.id)

            # Calculate forecast and contribution breakdown
            moves_breakdown = []
            for move in linked_moves:
                move_score = SimulationEngine.calculate_move_score(move)
                moves_breakdown.append({
                    "id": move.id,
                    "text": move.text,
                    "score": move_score,
                    "hypothesis": move.linked_hypothesis
                })

            moves_score = sum(m["score"] for m in moves_breakdown)
            forecast = strategy.goal.baseline * (1 + moves_score)

            results["metric_forecasts"].append({
                "id": strategy.goal.metric,
                "text": f"{strategy.goal.text} (MAIN GOAL)",
                "baseline": strategy.goal.baseline,
                "target": strategy.goal.target,
                "forecast": round(forecast, 2),
                "unit": strategy.goal.unit,
                "gap_to_target": round(strategy.goal.target - forecast, 2),
                "linked_moves": moves_breakdown,
                "linked_hypotheses": linked_hypotheses,
                "is_main": True
            })

        # Forecast supporting metrics
        for metric in strategy.metrics:
            # Find moves linked to this metric through hypotheses
            linked_moves = []
            linked_hypotheses = []
            for move in strategy.moves:
                for hyp in strategy.hypotheses:
                    if hyp.id == move.linked_hypothesis and hyp.metric == metric.id:
                        linked_moves.append(move)
                        if hyp.id not in linked_hypotheses:
                            linked_hypotheses.append(hyp.id)

            # Calculate forecast and contribution breakdown
            moves_breakdown = []
            for move in linked_moves:
                move_score = SimulationEngine.calculate_move_score(move)
                moves_breakdown.append({
                    "id": move.id,
                    "text": move.text,
                    "score": move_score,
                    "hypothesis": move.linked_hypothesis
                })

            moves_score = sum(m["score"] for m in moves_breakdown)
            forecast = metric.baseline * (1 + moves_score)

            results["metric_forecasts"].append({
                "id": metric.id,
                "text": metric.text,
                "baseline": metric.baseline,
                "target": metric.target,
                "forecast": round(forecast, 2),
                "unit": metric.unit,
                "gap_to_target": round(metric.target - forecast, 2),
                "linked_moves": moves_breakdown,
                "linked_hypotheses": linked_hypotheses,
                "is_main": False
            })

        # Generate recommendations
        if results["move_scores"]:
            top_move = results["move_scores"][0]
            if top_move["risk"] > 0.7:
                results["recommendations"].append(f"⚠️ Top move '{top_move['text']}' has high risk ({top_move['risk']})")

            high_cost_moves = [m for m in results["move_scores"] if m["cost"] > 100000]
            if high_cost_moves:
                results["recommendations"].append(f"💰 {len(high_cost_moves)} move(s) exceed 100k budget")

        return results

    @staticmethod
    def create_results_dataframe(results: Dict[str, Any]) -> pd.DataFrame:
        """Convert simulation results to pandas DataFrame"""
        if not results.get("move_scores"):
            return pd.DataFrame()

        df = pd.DataFrame(results["move_scores"])
        df = df[["id", "text", "score", "impact", "fit", "risk", "cost"]]
        df.columns = ["ID", "Move", "Score", "Impact", "Fit", "Risk", "Cost"]
        return df