File size: 4,898 Bytes
aac9e56
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
# src/train_models.py
import os
import joblib
import mlflow
import torch
import torch.nn as nn
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error

# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# MLflow setup
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
mlflow.set_tracking_uri("sqlite:///mlflow.db")
mlflow.set_experiment("Investor-Sentiment-Aware-Models")

# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Ensure models directory exists
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
os.makedirs("models", exist_ok=True)

# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Simple MLP model
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
class MLP(nn.Module):
    def __init__(self, n_features):
        super().__init__()
        self.net = nn.Sequential(
            nn.Linear(n_features, 32),
            nn.ReLU(),
            nn.Linear(32, 1)
        )

    def forward(self, x):
        return self.net(x)

# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Train models for a single ticker
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def train_ticker(df, ticker):
    df_t = df[df["Ticker"] == ticker].copy()

    # Feature matrix
    X = df_t[["return_lag1", "volume_lag1", "sentiment_lag1"]].values
    y = df_t["Return"].shift(-1).dropna().values

    # Align X with shifted y
    X = X[:-1]

    if len(X) < 20:
        raise ValueError(f"Not enough samples after lagging for {ticker}")

    # Scale
    sx, sy = MinMaxScaler(), MinMaxScaler()
    Xs = sx.fit_transform(X)
    ys = sy.fit_transform(y.reshape(-1, 1)).flatten()

    split = int(0.8 * len(Xs))
    Xtr, Xte = Xs[:split], Xs[split:]
    ytr, yte = ys[:split], ys[split:]

    ticker_dir = f"models/{ticker}"
    os.makedirs(ticker_dir, exist_ok=True)

    with mlflow.start_run(run_name=ticker):
        mlflow.log_param("ticker", ticker)
        mlflow.log_param("train_samples", len(Xtr))
        mlflow.log_param("test_samples", len(Xte))

        # -------------------------------
        # Random Forest
        # -------------------------------
        rf = RandomForestRegressor(
            n_estimators=200,
            random_state=42
        )
        rf.fit(Xtr, ytr)

        preds_rf = rf.predict(Xte)
        rmse_rf = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(yte, preds_rf))

        joblib.dump(rf, f"{ticker_dir}/rf.joblib")
        mlflow.sklearn.log_model(rf, "rf")
        mlflow.log_metric("rf_rmse", rmse_rf)

        # -------------------------------
        # MLP
        # -------------------------------
        mlp = MLP(X.shape[1])
        optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(mlp.parameters(), lr=0.001)
        loss_fn = nn.MSELoss()

        Xtr_t = torch.tensor(Xtr, dtype=torch.float32)
        ytr_t = torch.tensor(ytr, dtype=torch.float32).unsqueeze(1)

        for epoch in range(50):
            optimizer.zero_grad()
            loss = loss_fn(mlp(Xtr_t), ytr_t)
            loss.backward()
            optimizer.step()

        mlp.eval()
        Xte_t = torch.tensor(Xte, dtype=torch.float32)
        preds_mlp = mlp(Xte_t).detach().numpy().flatten()
        rmse_mlp = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(yte, preds_mlp))

        torch.save(mlp.state_dict(), f"{ticker_dir}/mlp.pth")
        mlflow.pytorch.log_model(mlp, "mlp")
        mlflow.log_metric("mlp_rmse", rmse_mlp)

        # -------------------------------
        # Scalers
        # -------------------------------
        joblib.dump(sx, f"{ticker_dir}/scaler_x.joblib")
        joblib.dump(sy, f"{ticker_dir}/scaler_y.joblib")

        print(
            f"[{ticker}] RF RMSE={rmse_rf:.6f}, "
            f"MLP RMSE={rmse_mlp:.6f}"
        )

# ------------------------------------------------------------------
# Main entry point (DVC stage)
# ------------------------------------------------------------------
def main():
    df = pd.read_csv("data/processed/merged_features.csv")

    print("Rows in merged features:", len(df))
    print("Tickers found:", df["Ticker"].unique())

    trained_any = False

    for ticker in df["Ticker"].unique():
        df_t = df[df["Ticker"] == ticker]

        if len(df_t) < 50:
            print(f"Skipping {ticker}: insufficient data ({len(df_t)} rows)")
            continue

        print(f"Training models for {ticker}")
        train_ticker(df, ticker)
        trained_any = True

    if not trained_any:
        raise RuntimeError(
            "No models were trained — check feature generation or data volume."
        )

    print("Training stage completed successfully.")

# ------------------------------------------------------------------
if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()