# src/train_models.py import os import joblib import mlflow import torch import torch.nn as nn import numpy as np import pandas as pd from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # MLflow setup # ------------------------------------------------------------------ mlflow.set_tracking_uri("sqlite:///mlflow.db") mlflow.set_experiment("Investor-Sentiment-Aware-Models") # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Ensure models directory exists # ------------------------------------------------------------------ os.makedirs("models", exist_ok=True) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Simple MLP model # ------------------------------------------------------------------ class MLP(nn.Module): def __init__(self, n_features): super().__init__() self.net = nn.Sequential( nn.Linear(n_features, 32), nn.ReLU(), nn.Linear(32, 1) ) def forward(self, x): return self.net(x) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Train models for a single ticker # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def train_ticker(df, ticker): df_t = df[df["Ticker"] == ticker].copy() # Feature matrix X = df_t[["return_lag1", "volume_lag1", "sentiment_lag1"]].values y = df_t["Return"].shift(-1).dropna().values # Align X with shifted y X = X[:-1] if len(X) < 20: raise ValueError(f"Not enough samples after lagging for {ticker}") # Scale sx, sy = MinMaxScaler(), MinMaxScaler() Xs = sx.fit_transform(X) ys = sy.fit_transform(y.reshape(-1, 1)).flatten() split = int(0.8 * len(Xs)) Xtr, Xte = Xs[:split], Xs[split:] ytr, yte = ys[:split], ys[split:] ticker_dir = f"models/{ticker}" os.makedirs(ticker_dir, exist_ok=True) with mlflow.start_run(run_name=ticker): mlflow.log_param("ticker", ticker) mlflow.log_param("train_samples", len(Xtr)) mlflow.log_param("test_samples", len(Xte)) # ------------------------------- # Random Forest # ------------------------------- rf = RandomForestRegressor( n_estimators=200, random_state=42 ) rf.fit(Xtr, ytr) preds_rf = rf.predict(Xte) rmse_rf = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(yte, preds_rf)) joblib.dump(rf, f"{ticker_dir}/rf.joblib") mlflow.sklearn.log_model(rf, "rf") mlflow.log_metric("rf_rmse", rmse_rf) # ------------------------------- # MLP # ------------------------------- mlp = MLP(X.shape[1]) optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(mlp.parameters(), lr=0.001) loss_fn = nn.MSELoss() Xtr_t = torch.tensor(Xtr, dtype=torch.float32) ytr_t = torch.tensor(ytr, dtype=torch.float32).unsqueeze(1) for epoch in range(50): optimizer.zero_grad() loss = loss_fn(mlp(Xtr_t), ytr_t) loss.backward() optimizer.step() mlp.eval() Xte_t = torch.tensor(Xte, dtype=torch.float32) preds_mlp = mlp(Xte_t).detach().numpy().flatten() rmse_mlp = np.sqrt(mean_squared_error(yte, preds_mlp)) torch.save(mlp.state_dict(), f"{ticker_dir}/mlp.pth") mlflow.pytorch.log_model(mlp, "mlp") mlflow.log_metric("mlp_rmse", rmse_mlp) # ------------------------------- # Scalers # ------------------------------- joblib.dump(sx, f"{ticker_dir}/scaler_x.joblib") joblib.dump(sy, f"{ticker_dir}/scaler_y.joblib") print( f"[{ticker}] RF RMSE={rmse_rf:.6f}, " f"MLP RMSE={rmse_mlp:.6f}" ) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # Main entry point (DVC stage) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def main(): df = pd.read_csv("data/processed/merged_features.csv") print("Rows in merged features:", len(df)) print("Tickers found:", df["Ticker"].unique()) trained_any = False for ticker in df["Ticker"].unique(): df_t = df[df["Ticker"] == ticker] if len(df_t) < 50: print(f"Skipping {ticker}: insufficient data ({len(df_t)} rows)") continue print(f"Training models for {ticker}") train_ticker(df, ticker) trained_any = True if not trained_any: raise RuntimeError( "No models were trained — check feature generation or data volume." ) print("Training stage completed successfully.") # ------------------------------------------------------------------ if __name__ == "__main__": main()