#!/usr/bin/env python3 """ 100optimization.py — safe Hugging Face CRT strategy optimizer. This script is designed for a Hugging Face Space. It: 1. Calls load_dataset("Mikecode123/volatility_100_index") with remote dataset code disabled. 2. Locates volatility_100_index.zip in the dataset snapshot. 3. Inspects the archive and extracts CSV files only. Scripts, executables, symlinks, traversal paths, and oversized archives are rejected. 4. Loads M1.csv, M5.csv, M15.csv, M30.csv, H1.csv, and H4.csv case-insensitively. 5. Implements a clearly documented Candle Range Theory (CRT) rule: - use a completed H1 or H4 reference candle; - wait for a sweep of its high/low; - require a close back inside the reference range; - require the next-bar confirmation through the sweep candle extreme; - enter at confirmation close; - target the opposite edge of the reference range and evaluate staged ATR-based TP/SL outcomes. 6. Uses a bounded deterministic candidate search. The supervisor model can select only from supplied candidate IDs; it cannot generate code or change the evaluation rules. 7. Saves every new best result and milestone result (20%, 30%, 80%) to the Space checkpoint directory, then creates a downloadable ZIP. There is no guarantee that 80% accuracy is achievable. The target is a stopping criterion, not a promise. Validation is used for optimization; the final test period remains untouched until the end. Supervisor model (pinned and approved): google/flan-t5-small revision=0fc9ddf78a1e988dac52e2dac162b0ede4fd74ab trust_remote_code=False Expected Space requirements: datasets huggingface_hub transformers torch pandas numpy Research sources for the CRT specification: https://innercircletrader.net/tutorials/candle-range-theory-crt/ https://tradingwyckoff.com/en/crt/ The public CRT descriptions are educational retail sources, not peer-reviewed proof of profitability. The implementation therefore reports validation and test results separately and records coverage beside accuracy. """ from __future__ import annotations import gc import itertools import json import math import os import random import re import shutil import stat import time import zipfile from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass from datetime import datetime, timezone from pathlib import Path from typing import Any, Optional import numpy as np import pandas as pd try: from datasets import load_dataset except ImportError as exc: # pragma: no cover - dependency supplied by the Space raise RuntimeError( "Install the Space requirements first: datasets, huggingface_hub, " "transformers, torch, pandas, numpy" ) from exc # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Configuration # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- DATASET_ID = os.environ.get("HF_DATASET_ID", "Mikecode123/volatility_100_index") SUPERVISOR_MODEL_ID = "google/flan-t5-small" SUPERVISOR_REVISION = "0fc9ddf78a1e988dac52e2dac162b0ede4fd74ab" TF_MINUTES = { "M1": 1, "M5": 5, "M15": 15, "M30": 30, "H1": 60, "H4": 240, } CLASS_NAMES = { 0: "NO_TRADE", 1: "SL", 2: "BE", 3: "TP1", 4: "TP2", 5: "TP3", } LOCAL_R_VALUE = np.array([0.0, -1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0], dtype=np.float32) LOCAL_RANK = np.array([1, 0, 2, 3, 4, 5], dtype=np.int8) @dataclass class Config: dataset_id: str = DATASET_ID seed: int = int(os.environ.get("OPTIMIZER_SEED", "42")) target_accuracy: float = float(os.environ.get("TARGET_ACCURACY", "0.80")) max_trials: int = int(os.environ.get("MAX_TRIALS", "30")) min_trades: int = int(os.environ.get("MIN_TRADES", "100")) min_coverage: float = float(os.environ.get("MIN_COVERAGE", "0.001")) max_rows: int = int(os.environ.get("MAX_ROWS", "0")) reference_timeframe: str = os.environ.get("CRT_REFERENCE_TF", "H1").upper() confirm_bars: int = int(os.environ.get("CRT_CONFIRM_BARS", "1")) atr_period: int = int(os.environ.get("ATR_PERIOD", "14")) default_sl_atr_mult: float = float(os.environ.get("SL_ATR_MULT", "1.0")) default_horizon: int = int(os.environ.get("MAX_HORIZON", "60")) checkpoint_dir: Path = Path( os.environ.get("CHECKPOINT_DIR", "/data/100optimization_checkpoints") ) data_dir: Path = Path( os.environ.get("DATA_EXTRACT_DIR", "/tmp/volatility_100_index_data") ) CFG = Config() # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Logging and filesystem helpers # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def log(message: str, *args: Any, level: str = "INFO") -> None: if args: message = message.format(*args) stamp = datetime.now().strftime("%H:%M:%S") print(f"[{stamp}] [{level}] {message}", flush=True) def utc_now() -> str: return datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat() def ensure_checkpoint_dir() -> Path: try: CFG.checkpoint_dir.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) return CFG.checkpoint_dir except PermissionError: fallback = Path("./100optimization_checkpoints") fallback.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) log( "Cannot write to {}; using {} instead", CFG.checkpoint_dir, fallback, level="WARN", ) CFG.checkpoint_dir = fallback return fallback # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Hugging Face dataset discovery and safe archive handling # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def _snapshot_dataset_files() -> Path: """Download only dataset files, never executable model or code files.""" from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download return Path( snapshot_download( repo_id=CFG.dataset_id, repo_type="dataset", allow_patterns=["*.zip", "*.ZIP", "*.csv", "*.CSV"], ) ) def locate_zip(snapshot_dir: Path) -> Path: candidates = sorted( p for p in snapshot_dir.rglob("*") if p.is_file() and p.suffix.lower() == ".zip" ) if not candidates: raise FileNotFoundError( f"No ZIP file was found in the dataset snapshot {snapshot_dir}." ) exact = [p for p in candidates if p.name.lower() == "volatility_100_index.zip"] if exact: return exact[0] if len(candidates) == 1: log("Using the only ZIP in the dataset snapshot: {}", candidates[0], level="WARN") return candidates[0] raise FileNotFoundError( "Multiple ZIP files were found and none was named " f"volatility_100_index.zip: {candidates}" ) def inspect_zip(zip_path: Path) -> list[zipfile.ZipInfo]: """Inspect the archive before extraction; allow data CSVs only.""" max_entries = 2_000 max_file_size = 25 * 1024 * 1024 max_total_size = 250 * 1024 * 1024 with zipfile.ZipFile(zip_path, "r") as archive: infos = archive.infolist() if len(infos) > max_entries: raise ValueError(f"Archive contains too many entries: {len(infos)}") total_size = 0 files: list[zipfile.ZipInfo] = [] log("Inspecting archive {}", zip_path) for info in infos: name = Path(info.filename.replace("\\", "/")) if name.is_absolute() or ".." in name.parts: raise ValueError(f"Unsafe archive path rejected: {info.filename}") file_mode = (info.external_attr >> 16) & 0o170000 if file_mode == stat.S_IFLNK: raise ValueError(f"Symlink rejected: {info.filename}") if info.is_dir(): log(" [directory] {}", info.filename) continue if name.suffix.lower() != ".csv": raise ValueError( f"Non-CSV/script/configuration member rejected: {info.filename}. " "This optimizer accepts a data-only archive." ) if info.file_size > max_file_size: raise ValueError(f"Archive member is too large: {info.filename}") total_size += info.file_size if total_size > max_total_size: raise ValueError("Archive expanded size exceeds safety limit") log(" [csv] {} ({:,} bytes)", info.filename, info.file_size) files.append(info) if not files: raise ValueError("Archive contains no CSV files") return files def safe_extract_zip(zip_path: Path, destination: Path) -> Path: infos = inspect_zip(zip_path) if destination.exists(): shutil.rmtree(destination) destination.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) root = destination.resolve() with zipfile.ZipFile(zip_path, "r") as archive: for info in infos: target = (destination / info.filename).resolve() if target != root and root not in target.parents: raise ValueError(f"Extraction escaped destination: {info.filename}") target.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) with archive.open(info, "r") as source, target.open("wb") as sink: shutil.copyfileobj(source, sink, length=1024 * 1024) return destination def find_timeframe_file(directory: Path, timeframe: str) -> Optional[Path]: wanted = f"{timeframe}.csv".lower() for candidate in directory.iterdir(): if candidate.is_file() and candidate.name.lower() == wanted: return candidate return None def find_data_directory(root: Path) -> Path: for m1 in sorted(root.rglob("*.csv")): if m1.is_file() and m1.stem.lower() == "m1": required = ("M1", "M5", "M15", "M30", "H1", "H4") missing = [tf for tf in required if find_timeframe_file(m1.parent, tf) is None] if not missing: return m1.parent log("Ignoring {} because it is missing {}", m1.parent, missing, level="WARN") raise FileNotFoundError( f"Could not find a directory containing M1/M5/M15/M30/H1/H4 CSVs below {root}" ) def load_dataset_archive() -> Path: """Call load_dataset as requested, then use the ZIP snapshot safely.""" try: loaded = load_dataset(CFG.dataset_id, trust_remote_code=False) if hasattr(loaded, "keys"): log("load_dataset opened splits: {}", list(loaded.keys())) else: log("load_dataset opened {} rows", len(loaded)) except Exception as exc: # A repository containing only a ZIP may not have a Datasets builder. # This fallback downloads data files only and still inspects the ZIP # before extraction. log( "load_dataset could not parse the ZIP-only repository: {}. " "Using the data-file snapshot fallback.", exc, level="WARN", ) snapshot = _snapshot_dataset_files() archive = locate_zip(snapshot) log("Dataset archive: {}", archive) return archive # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # OHLC loading and CRT feature construction # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- COLUMN_ALIASES = { "timestamp": ["timestamp", "time", "date", "datetime", "open_time"], "open": ["open", "o"], "high": ["high", "h"], "low": ["low", "l"], "close": ["close", "c", "adj_close"], "volume": ["volume", "vol", "v", "tick_volume"], } def resolve_column(columns: list[str], aliases: list[str]) -> Optional[str]: mapping = {column.lower(): column for column in columns} for alias in aliases: if alias in mapping: return mapping[alias] return None def load_ohlcv(path: Path) -> pd.DataFrame: header = pd.read_csv(path, nrows=0) columns = list(header.columns) resolved = { key: resolve_column(columns, aliases) for key, aliases in COLUMN_ALIASES.items() } required = ("timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close") missing = [key for key in required if resolved[key] is None] if missing: raise ValueError(f"{path} is missing required columns: {missing}") usecols = [resolved[key] for key in required] if resolved["volume"] is not None: usecols.append(resolved["volume"]) dtype = { resolved[key]: np.float32 for key in ("open", "high", "low", "close") } if resolved["volume"] is not None: dtype[resolved["volume"]] = np.float32 raw = pd.read_csv( path, usecols=list(dict.fromkeys(usecols)), dtype=dtype, parse_dates=[resolved["timestamp"]], ) out = pd.DataFrame({ "timestamp": raw[resolved["timestamp"]], "open": raw[resolved["open"]], "high": raw[resolved["high"]], "low": raw[resolved["low"]], "close": raw[resolved["close"]], }) out["volume"] = ( raw[resolved["volume"]] if resolved["volume"] is not None else np.float32(0.0) ) out = ( out.dropna(subset=["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close"]) .sort_values("timestamp") .drop_duplicates("timestamp", keep="last") .reset_index(drop=True) ) invalid = ( (out["high"] < out["low"]) | (out[["open", "high", "low", "close"]] <= 0).any(axis=1) ) if invalid.any(): log("{}: dropping {} invalid rows", path.name, int(invalid.sum()), level="WARN") out = out.loc[~invalid].reset_index(drop=True) return out def compute_atr(df: pd.DataFrame, period: int) -> pd.Series: previous_close = df["close"].shift(1) true_range = pd.concat( [ df["high"] - df["low"], (df["high"] - previous_close).abs(), (df["low"] - previous_close).abs(), ], axis=1, ).max(axis=1) return true_range.rolling(period, min_periods=period).mean() def closed_reference_features( base: pd.DataFrame, reference: pd.DataFrame, timeframe: str, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Attach only fully closed reference-candle levels to M1 rows.""" ref = reference[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close"]].copy() ref["timestamp"] = ref["timestamp"] + pd.Timedelta( minutes=TF_MINUTES[timeframe] ) ref = ref.rename(columns={ "open": "crt_open", "high": "crt_high", "low": "crt_low", "close": "crt_close", }) return pd.merge_asof( base.sort_values("timestamp"), ref.sort_values("timestamp"), on="timestamp", direction="backward", ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Staged outcomes used for CRT backtesting # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def simulate_direction( close: np.ndarray, high: np.ndarray, low: np.ndarray, risk: np.ndarray, direction: int, horizon: int, ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]: """Simulate SL -> BE -> TP1-lock -> TP3 for one direction.""" n = len(close) sign = 1.0 if direction > 0 else -1.0 entry = close stop = entry - sign * risk tp1 = entry + sign * risk * 2.0 tp2 = entry + sign * risk * 4.0 tp3 = entry + sign * risk * 6.0 lock = tp1 stage = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8) resolved = np.zeros(n, dtype=bool) outcome = np.zeros(n, dtype=np.int8) valid = np.isfinite(risk) for step in range(1, horizon + 1): owners = np.arange(n) future = owners + step active = (~resolved) & valid & (future < n) if not active.any(): continue owners = owners[active] future = future[active] snapshot = stage[owners].copy() for stage_id, favorable, adverse in ( (0, tp1, stop), (1, tp2, entry), (2, tp3, lock), ): mask = snapshot == stage_id if not mask.any(): continue rows = owners[mask] hi = high[future[mask]] lo = low[future[mask]] if direction > 0: touched_favorable = hi >= favorable[rows] touched_adverse = lo <= adverse[rows] else: touched_favorable = lo <= favorable[rows] touched_adverse = hi >= adverse[rows] adverse_rows = rows[touched_adverse] favorable_rows = rows[touched_favorable & ~touched_adverse] if stage_id == 0: outcome[adverse_rows] = 1 resolved[adverse_rows] = True stage[favorable_rows] = 1 elif stage_id == 1: outcome[adverse_rows] = 2 resolved[adverse_rows] = True stage[favorable_rows] = 2 else: outcome[adverse_rows] = 3 resolved[adverse_rows] = True final_rows = rows[touched_favorable & ~touched_adverse] outcome[final_rows] = 5 resolved[final_rows] = True open_rows = (~resolved) & valid outcome[open_rows & (stage == 0)] = 0 outcome[open_rows & (stage == 1)] = 3 outcome[open_rows & (stage == 2)] = 4 return outcome, LOCAL_R_VALUE[outcome] def build_outcomes( m1: pd.DataFrame, atr_period: int, sl_atr_mult: float, horizon: int, ) -> dict[str, np.ndarray]: atr = compute_atr(m1, atr_period).to_numpy(dtype=np.float32) risk = np.float32(sl_atr_mult) * atr close = m1["close"].to_numpy(dtype=np.float32) high = m1["high"].to_numpy(dtype=np.float32) low = m1["low"].to_numpy(dtype=np.float32) long_outcome, long_r = simulate_direction(close, high, low, risk, 1, horizon) short_outcome, short_r = simulate_direction(close, high, low, risk, -1, horizon) long_rank = LOCAL_RANK[long_outcome] short_rank = LOCAL_RANK[short_outcome] choose_long = (long_rank > short_rank) | ( (long_rank == short_rank) & (long_r >= short_r) ) chosen_outcome = np.where(choose_long, long_outcome, short_outcome).astype(np.int8) chosen_direction = np.where( chosen_outcome == 0, 0, np.where(choose_long, 1, -1), ).astype(np.int8) return { "long_outcome": long_outcome, "short_outcome": short_outcome, "long_r": long_r, "short_r": short_r, "chosen_outcome": chosen_outcome, "chosen_direction": chosen_direction, } # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # CRT signals and metrics # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- @dataclass(frozen=True) class Candidate: candidate_id: int reference_timeframe: str min_sweep_atr: float use_reference_bias: bool confirmation_window: int cooldown_bars: int sl_atr_mult: float horizon: int def make_candidates(seed: int) -> list[Candidate]: rng = random.Random(seed) candidates: list[Candidate] = [] candidate_id = 0 for values in itertools.product( ("H1", "H4"), (0.00, 0.05, 0.10, 0.25), (False, True), (1, 2), (0, 5, 15), (0.75, 1.00, 1.50), (30, 60), ): candidates.append(Candidate(candidate_id=candidate_id, **dict(zip( ( "reference_timeframe", "min_sweep_atr", "use_reference_bias", "confirmation_window", "cooldown_bars", "sl_atr_mult", "horizon", ), values, )))) candidate_id += 1 rng.shuffle(candidates) return candidates def generate_crt_signals( m1: pd.DataFrame, reference: pd.DataFrame, atr: pd.Series, candidate: Candidate, ) -> np.ndarray: base = m1[["timestamp", "open", "high", "low", "close"]].copy() merged = closed_reference_features(base, reference, candidate.reference_timeframe) atr_values = atr.to_numpy(dtype=np.float32) bullish_sweep = ( (merged["low"].to_numpy() < merged["crt_low"].to_numpy()) & (merged["close"].to_numpy() > merged["crt_low"].to_numpy()) & ( (merged["crt_low"].to_numpy() - merged["low"].to_numpy()) >= np.float32(candidate.min_sweep_atr) * atr_values ) ) bearish_sweep = ( (merged["high"].to_numpy() > merged["crt_high"].to_numpy()) & (merged["close"].to_numpy() < merged["crt_high"].to_numpy()) & ( (merged["high"].to_numpy() - merged["crt_high"].to_numpy()) >= np.float32(candidate.min_sweep_atr) * atr_values ) ) ref_open = merged["crt_open"].to_numpy() ref_close = merged["crt_close"].to_numpy() if candidate.use_reference_bias: bullish_sweep &= ref_close >= ref_open bearish_sweep &= ref_close <= ref_open highs = merged["high"].to_numpy() lows = merged["low"].to_numpy() closes = merged["close"].to_numpy() signals = np.zeros(len(merged), dtype=np.int8) # Confirmation is a close through the sweep candle's opposite extreme. for delay in range(1, candidate.confirmation_window + 1): prior_bull = np.zeros(len(merged), dtype=bool) prior_bear = np.zeros(len(merged), dtype=bool) if delay < len(merged): prior_bull[delay:] = bullish_sweep[:-delay] prior_bear[delay:] = bearish_sweep[:-delay] signals[delay:][prior_bull[delay:] & (closes[delay:] > highs[:-delay])] = 1 signals[delay:][prior_bear[delay:] & (closes[delay:] < lows[:-delay])] = -1 if candidate.cooldown_bars > 0: last_signal = -candidate.cooldown_bars - 1 for i in range(len(signals)): if signals[i] != 0: if i - last_signal <= candidate.cooldown_bars: signals[i] = 0 else: last_signal = i return signals def metrics_for_slice( signals: np.ndarray, outcomes: dict[str, np.ndarray], start: int, end: int, min_trades: int, min_coverage: float, ) -> dict[str, Any]: signal = signals[start:end] chosen_direction = outcomes["chosen_direction"][start:end] long_r = outcomes["long_r"][start:end] short_r = outcomes["short_r"][start:end] long_outcome = outcomes["long_outcome"][start:end] short_outcome = outcomes["short_outcome"][start:end] trades = signal != 0 n_rows = len(signal) n_trades = int(trades.sum()) coverage = float(n_trades / n_rows) if n_rows else 0.0 if n_trades: realized_r = np.where(signal > 0, long_r, short_r) realized_outcome = np.where(signal > 0, long_outcome, short_outcome) trade_accuracy = float((realized_r[trades] > 0).mean()) direction_accuracy = float( (signal[trades] == chosen_direction[trades]).mean() ) tp1_rate = float(np.isin(realized_outcome[trades], [3, 4, 5]).mean()) tp2_rate = float(np.isin(realized_outcome[trades], [4, 5]).mean()) tp3_rate = float((realized_outcome[trades] == 5).mean()) sl_rate = float((realized_outcome[trades] == 1).mean()) expectancy = float(realized_r[trades].mean()) total_r = float(realized_r[trades].sum()) positive = float(realized_r[trades][realized_r[trades] > 0].sum()) negative = float(-realized_r[trades][realized_r[trades] < 0].sum()) profit_factor = positive / negative if negative > 0 else math.inf else: trade_accuracy = direction_accuracy = 0.0 tp1_rate = tp2_rate = tp3_rate = sl_rate = 0.0 expectancy = total_r = 0.0 profit_factor = 0.0 eligible = n_trades >= min_trades and coverage >= min_coverage return { "rows": n_rows, "trades": n_trades, "coverage": coverage, "eligible": eligible, "trade_accuracy": trade_accuracy, "direction_accuracy": direction_accuracy, "tp1_or_better_rate": tp1_rate, "tp2_or_better_rate": tp2_rate, "tp3_rate": tp3_rate, "sl_rate": sl_rate, "expectancy_R": expectancy, "profit_factor": profit_factor, "total_R": total_r, } def objective(metrics: dict[str, Any]) -> tuple[float, float, float]: if not metrics["eligible"]: return (-1.0, metrics["coverage"], metrics["expectancy_R"]) return ( metrics["trade_accuracy"], metrics["coverage"], metrics["expectancy_R"], ) # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Pinned FLAN-T5 supervisor # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- class Supervisor: def __init__(self) -> None: from transformers import AutoModelForSeq2SeqLM, AutoTokenizer import torch self.torch = torch log( "Loading pinned supervisor {} at revision {}", SUPERVISOR_MODEL_ID, SUPERVISOR_REVISION, ) self.tokenizer = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained( SUPERVISOR_MODEL_ID, revision=SUPERVISOR_REVISION, trust_remote_code=False, ) self.model = AutoModelForSeq2SeqLM.from_pretrained( SUPERVISOR_MODEL_ID, revision=SUPERVISOR_REVISION, trust_remote_code=False, ) self.device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu") self.model.to(self.device) self.model.eval() def choose( self, candidates: list[Candidate], history: list[dict[str, Any]], ) -> tuple[Optional[int], str]: if not candidates: return None, "no candidates" candidate_text = "\n".join( f"ID {c.candidate_id}: ref={c.reference_timeframe}, " f"sweep_atr={c.min_sweep_atr}, bias={c.use_reference_bias}, " f"confirm={c.confirmation_window}, cooldown={c.cooldown_bars}, " f"sl={c.sl_atr_mult}, horizon={c.horizon}" for c in candidates[:24] ) history_text = "\n".join( f"trial {row['trial']}: candidate={row['candidate_id']}, " f"accuracy={row.get('validation', {}).get('trade_accuracy', 0):.4f}, " f"coverage={row.get('validation', {}).get('coverage', 0):.4f}" for row in history[-8:] ) or "No previous trials." prompt = ( "You are a constrained trading-strategy supervisor. Choose one " "candidate ID from the list. Do not invent an ID. Prefer enough " "coverage and realistic validation accuracy. Reply exactly as " "CANDIDATE_ID= followed by one short reason.\n\n" f"Candidates:\n{candidate_text}\n\nHistory:\n{history_text}" ) inputs = self.tokenizer( prompt, return_tensors="pt", truncation=True, max_length=768, ).to(self.device) with self.torch.no_grad(): output = self.model.generate(**inputs, max_new_tokens=48) reply = self.tokenizer.decode(output[0], skip_special_tokens=True) match = re.search(r"CANDIDATE_ID\s*=\s*(\d+)", reply) selected = int(match.group(1)) if match else None valid_ids = {candidate.candidate_id for candidate in candidates} if selected not in valid_ids: selected = None return selected, reply # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Checkpointing and optimization loop # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- def save_json(path: Path, value: Any) -> None: path.write_text(json.dumps(value, indent=2, default=str), encoding="utf-8") def save_checkpoint( checkpoint_dir: Path, candidate: Candidate, result: dict[str, Any], milestone: Optional[int] = None, ) -> None: prefix = "best" if milestone is None else f"milestone_{milestone:02d}pct" payload = { "saved_at": utc_now(), "candidate": asdict(candidate), "result": result, "supervisor_model": { "id": SUPERVISOR_MODEL_ID, "revision": SUPERVISOR_REVISION, "trust_remote_code": False, }, "crt_sources": [ "https://innercircletrader.net/tutorials/candle-range-theory-crt/", "https://tradingwyckoff.com/en/crt/", ], } save_json(checkpoint_dir / f"{prefix}_checkpoint.json", payload) log("Saved {} checkpoint at validation accuracy {:.2%}", prefix, result["validation"]["trade_accuracy"]) def package_checkpoints(checkpoint_dir: Path) -> Path: archive_path = checkpoint_dir.parent / "100optimization_checkpoints.zip" if archive_path.exists(): archive_path.unlink() with zipfile.ZipFile(archive_path, "w", zipfile.ZIP_DEFLATED) as archive: for path in sorted(checkpoint_dir.rglob("*")): if path.is_file(): archive.write(path, arcname=f"{checkpoint_dir.name}/{path.relative_to(checkpoint_dir)}") log("Checkpoint archive: {}", archive_path) return archive_path def load_market_data() -> tuple[dict[str, pd.DataFrame], Path]: archive = load_dataset_archive() extracted = safe_extract_zip(archive, CFG.data_dir) data_dir = find_data_directory(extracted) raw: dict[str, pd.DataFrame] = {} for timeframe in ("M1", "M5", "M15", "M30", "H1", "H4"): path = find_timeframe_file(data_dir, timeframe) if path is None: raise FileNotFoundError(f"Missing {timeframe}.csv in {data_dir}") raw[timeframe] = load_ohlcv(path) log("Loaded {}: {:,} rows", timeframe, len(raw[timeframe])) return raw, data_dir def run() -> dict[str, Any]: checkpoint_dir = ensure_checkpoint_dir() random.seed(CFG.seed) np.random.seed(CFG.seed) raw, data_dir = load_market_data() m1 = raw["M1"] if CFG.max_rows and len(m1) > CFG.max_rows: m1 = m1.tail(CFG.max_rows).reset_index(drop=True) log("Using the last {:,} M1 rows because MAX_ROWS is set", len(m1), level="WARN") atr = compute_atr(m1, CFG.atr_period) candidates = make_candidates(CFG.seed) outcome_cache: dict[tuple[float, int], dict[str, np.ndarray]] = {} signal_cache: dict[int, np.ndarray] = {} history: list[dict[str, Any]] = [] evaluated: set[int] = set() best_result: Optional[dict[str, Any]] = None best_candidate: Optional[Candidate] = None milestones_saved: set[int] = set() n = len(m1) train_end = int(n * 0.60) validation_end = int(n * 0.80) purge = max(CFG.default_horizon, 60) validation_start = min(n, train_end + purge) test_start = min(n, validation_end + purge) supervisor: Optional[Supervisor] try: supervisor = Supervisor() except Exception as exc: log("Supervisor unavailable: {}. Continuing deterministically.", exc, level="WARN") supervisor = None log( "CRT optimization rows={} | train={} | validation={} | test={}", n, train_end, validation_end - validation_start, n - test_start, ) for trial in range(CFG.max_trials): remaining = [candidate for candidate in candidates if candidate.candidate_id not in evaluated] if not remaining: break selected_id: Optional[int] = None supervisor_reply = "" if supervisor is not None and history: selected_id, supervisor_reply = supervisor.choose(remaining, history) if selected_id is None: # Deterministic fallback: evaluate candidates in the seeded order. selected_id = remaining[0].candidate_id candidate = next(c for c in candidates if c.candidate_id == selected_id) evaluated.add(candidate.candidate_id) key = (candidate.sl_atr_mult, candidate.horizon) if key not in outcome_cache: outcome_cache[key] = build_outcomes( m1, CFG.atr_period, candidate.sl_atr_mult, candidate.horizon, ) outcomes = outcome_cache[key] if candidate.candidate_id not in signal_cache: signal_cache[candidate.candidate_id] = generate_crt_signals( m1, raw[candidate.reference_timeframe], atr, candidate, ) signals = signal_cache[candidate.candidate_id] validation = metrics_for_slice( signals, outcomes, validation_start, validation_end, CFG.min_trades, CFG.min_coverage, ) test = metrics_for_slice( signals, outcomes, test_start, n, CFG.min_trades, CFG.min_coverage, ) result = { "trial": trial + 1, "candidate_id": candidate.candidate_id, "candidate": asdict(candidate), "validation": validation, "test_preview": test, "supervisor_reply": supervisor_reply, } history.append(result) save_json(checkpoint_dir / "trials.json", history) log( "Trial {} candidate={} validation accuracy={:.2%} coverage={:.2%} " "trades={} expectancy={:.3f}R test accuracy={:.2%}", trial + 1, candidate.candidate_id, validation["trade_accuracy"], validation["coverage"], validation["trades"], validation["expectancy_R"], test["trade_accuracy"], ) if best_result is None or objective(validation) > objective(best_result["validation"]): best_result = result best_candidate = candidate save_checkpoint(checkpoint_dir, candidate, result) achieved = validation["eligible"] and validation["trade_accuracy"] >= CFG.target_accuracy for milestone in (20, 30, 80): if ( milestone not in milestones_saved and validation["eligible"] and validation["trade_accuracy"] >= milestone / 100.0 ): save_checkpoint(checkpoint_dir, candidate, result, milestone=milestone) milestones_saved.add(milestone) if achieved: log( "Target validation accuracy reached: {:.2%}. " "No further optimization trials will run.", validation["trade_accuracy"], ) break