predictive_model.py

import os
import logging
import pickle
from typing import Dict, Any, Union, Optional
import numpy as np
import joblib

logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)

class SimpleReadmissionModel:
    """
    A simple model for predicting hospital readmission risk
    Can be replaced with a more sophisticated ML model
    """
    
    def __init__(self):
        """Initialize the readmission risk model"""
        self.feature_weights = {
            'age': 0.02,              # Higher age increases risk slightly
            'num_conditions': 0.15,   # More conditions increase risk
            'num_medications': 0.1    # More medications increase risk
        }

    def predict(self, features: Dict[str, Any]) -> float:
        """
        Predict readmission risk based on input features
        :param features: Dictionary of input features
        :return: Predicted readmission risk score
        """
        risk_score = 0.0
        for feature, weight in self.feature_weights.items():
            risk_score += features.get(feature, 0) * weight
        return risk_score

def load_model(model_path="model.joblib"):
    """
    Load a pre-trained model from disk (Joblib, Pickle, or any format).
    For hackathon demonstration, you can store a simple logistic regression or XGBoost model.
    """
    # For now, let's assume you've already trained a model and saved it as model.joblib
    # If you don't have a real model, you could mock or return None.
    try:
        model = joblib.load(model_path)
        return model
    except:
        # If no real model is available, just return None or a dummy object
        print("Warning: No real model found. Using mock predictions.")
        return None

def predict_readmission_risk(model, patient_data: dict) -> float:
    """
    Given patient_data (dict) and a loaded model, return a risk score [0,1].
    If model is None, return a random or fixed value for demonstration.
    """
    if model is None:
        # Mock for demonstration
        return 0.8  # always return 80% risk
    else:
        # Example feature extraction
        # Suppose your model expects [age, num_conditions, num_medications]
        age = patient_data.get('age', 50)
        num_conditions = patient_data.get('num_conditions', 2)
        num_medications = patient_data.get('num_medications', 5)

        X = np.array([[age, num_conditions, num_medications]])
        # If it's a classifier with predict_proba
        prob = model.predict_proba(X)[0,1]
        return float(prob)

# Add this main function
if __name__ == "__main__":
    # Set up logging
    logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, 
                        format='%(asctime)s - %(name)s - %(levelname)s - %(message)s')
    
    print("==== Discharge Guard Readmission Risk Prediction Demo ====")
    
    # Create test patient data
    test_patients = [
        {
            "id": "P001",
            "name": "John Doe",
            "age": 45,
            "num_conditions": 1,
            "num_medications": 2
        },
        {
            "id": "P002",
            "name": "Jane Smith",
            "age": 72,
            "num_conditions": 4,
            "num_medications": 7
        },
        {
            "id": "P003",
            "name": "Bob Johnson",
            "age": 65,
            "num_conditions": 3,
            "num_medications": 5
        }
    ]
    
    # Create an instance of the SimpleReadmissionModel
    print("\n1. Testing SimpleReadmissionModel:")
    simple_model = SimpleReadmissionModel()
    
    # Test with each patient
    for patient in test_patients:
        risk_score = simple_model.predict(patient)
        risk_percent = risk_score * 100
        print(f"  Patient {patient['id']} ({patient['name']}): Risk Score = {risk_percent:.1f}%")
    
    # Try to create and save a sample model for demonstration
    try:
        from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
        from sklearn.datasets import make_classification
        
        print("\n2. Creating sample RandomForest model for demonstration:")
        # Generate synthetic data
        X, y = make_classification(n_samples=1000, n_features=3, 
                                  n_informative=3, n_redundant=0, 
                                  random_state=42)
        
        # Create and fit a simple model
        rf_model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=10, random_state=42)
        rf_model.fit(X, y)
        
        # Save the model
        model_path = "model.joblib"
        joblib.dump(rf_model, model_path)
        print(f"  Sample model created and saved to {model_path}")
        
        # Now load and use the model
        loaded_model = load_model(model_path)
        
        print("\n3. Testing loaded model predictions:")
        for patient in test_patients:
            risk_score = predict_readmission_risk(loaded_model, patient)
            risk_percent = risk_score * 100
            print(f"  Patient {patient['id']} ({patient['name']}): Risk Score = {risk_percent:.1f}%")
            
    except ImportError:
        print("\nSkipping sklearn model creation (sklearn not available).")
        print("Using dummy prediction function instead:")
        
        for patient in test_patients:
            risk_score = predict_readmission_risk(None, patient)
            risk_percent = risk_score * 100
            print(f"  Patient {patient['id']} ({patient['name']}): Risk Score = {risk_percent:.1f}%")

    print("\nDemo complete. Implement this model in your discharge workflow to identify high-risk patients.")